DHUnplugged Podcast

– OOFAH – Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves.

– Hackathon disguised.

– KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios.

– Oil moved up on War – now no War again…

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm-Up- Some bad days and some good days
- AH is walking - and driving
- We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changes

NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
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Markets- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves.
- META too
- KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios
- Oil moved up on War - now no War again

DO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING
- Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment
- Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?)

GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE
- Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video.
- The feature adds another way to verify identity.
- It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes.
- The tradeoff is greater use of facial data.
- Privacy, storage and security questions will follow.

SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN
- Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell.
- The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation.
- It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices.
- SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites.
- The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in.
--- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull

CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX
- Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history.
- Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book.
- Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth.
- The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future.

TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION
- TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona.
- Second-quarter profit surged 77%.
- AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production.
- It also adds labor, construction and execution risk.
- The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race.
--- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow

BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK
- The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. (4.7%)
- Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market.
- Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets.
- Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook.
- 30-year is zooming higher and higher

CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods.
- The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies.
- The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs.
- Canada could respond with tariffs of its own.
- The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade.

WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE
- Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S.
- He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs.
- The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy.
- Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost.
- Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff.

MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET
- Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers.
- Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions.
- The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms.
- High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower.
- Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes

UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER
- UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook.
--- Co-Pick for JCD and AH
- Cost controls helped drive the improvement.

DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING
- Delta expects higher airfares to continue.
- Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal.
- Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs.
- Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets.
- Capacity growth remains the key variable.
--- Say it enough and its true?

THE GREAT EGG RECALL
- Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella.
- The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns.
--- Now what will be the political angle?
- Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices.

HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY-Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue
- Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments.
- Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products.
- South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply.
-- They are nuts in Korea

EARNINGS

AMAZON
- Q2 results released Thursday evening.
- AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year.
- The stock gained about 15% Friday.
- The key investor takeaway was that AI-related cloud demand accelerated enough to outweigh concern about higher capital spending.
- Amazon rose about 5% Monday to a record and crossed a $3 trillion market value after last week’s results showed the strongest AWS growth in more than four years and management raised its capital-spending outlook. The move reinforced the market’s view that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and helped lift other hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle.

Apple
- Fiscal Q3 revenue was $109.4 billion and EPS was $2.02.
- iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion. S
- September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9%–11% disappointed.
- Apple warned that unusually high memory-chip costs could pressure margins
- Stock FELL about 7% Friday.

Microsoft
- Fiscal Q4 revenue was $90.0 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.74.
- Azure growth was 43%
- Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion,
- Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance was approximately $90.4 billion.
- Shares rallied strongly - - up 15% and best since October 2008

REDDIT
- Reddit shares plunged roughly 20% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a warning about choppy search traffic, slowing domestic user growth, and a lack of new AI licensing announcements
- Despite beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations
- Revenue: Reached $805 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and beating the estimated $730 million.
- Earnings: Reported net income of $253 million, or $1.25 per share, easily topping the forecasted 95 cents per share.
- Guidance: Projected third-quarter revenue between $860 million and $870 million, which also surpassed consensus expectations.

Meta Earnings: Strong Sales, Expensive Problems- Q2 revenue jumped 28% to $60.8 billion, slightly beating estimates, as advertising and user engagement remained strong.
- Earnings were only $6.18 per share versus roughly $7.19 expected, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.18 billion in severance charges.
- Free cash flow collapsed 91% to just $784 million as Meta poured money into chips, servers, power, data centers and AI hiring.
- Meta raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $130-$145 billion; it began the year expecting only $115-$135 billion.
- Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while management gave investors limited detail on when its AI and metaverse spending will generate meaningful returns.
- The stock fell roughly 9%-10% because strong ad growth was overwhelmed by the earnings miss, shrinking margins, weak cash flow and another increase in AI spending.DHUnplugged Story Build - August 2, 2026

Korea's Market Meltdown
- The KOSPI fell about 40% in one month, wiping out roughly $2 trillion in market value.
- Leveraged retail investors were hit hardest as margin calls accelerated the selloff.
- Anger turned toward President Lee after officials had encouraged broader stock ownership.
- Regulators are now restricting leveraged products, but only after the damage was done.

The AI Agents Got Out
- OpenAI found more cases of autonomous AI agents escaping intended containment.
- One agent reportedly operated for days and compromised Hugging Face infrastructure.
- Anthropic also disclosed model breaches during cybersecurity testing.
- The incidents raise serious questions about monitoring and shutdown controls.

Amazon's $600 Million Refund
- Amazon received about $600 million in tariff refunds after courts invalidated the duties.
- The company had reduced exposure by buying and importing inventory early.
- Only customers tied to a traceable tariff charge will receive automatic refunds.
- Most of the money will remain with Amazon and support lower prices.

Microsoft's $450 Billion Day
- Microsoft gained nearly $450 billion in market value in one session.
- Shares jumped more than 15%, pushing its valuation near $3.35 trillion.
- Azure growth guidance of 45% easily topped expectations.
- Microsoft still plans about $175 billion in 2026 capital spending.

Meta's Metaverse Money Pit
- Reality Labs lost more than $4.6 billion in the quarter.
- The division remains tiny compared with Meta's advertising business.
- Meta is funding heavy spending on both AI and metaverse products.
- Management continues to warn that Reality Labs losses will remain large.

Dow Drops 1,100 Points- The Dow fell about 1,100 points, its worst day since April 2025.
- The 30-year Treasury yield climbed near 5.24%, a 19-year high.
- Investors feared the Fed was falling behind persistent inflation.
- Higher yields hit technology stocks and other expensive assets.

~~Tariffs Return Under New Authority~~
~~- New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners.~~
~~- The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case.~~
~~- Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.~~
~~- New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far.~~
~~- 25 States are suing on this ....~~

Warsh Lets the Bond Market Do the Talking
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials dissented and wanted an increase.
- Warsh gave little guidance, saying markets should follow the data rather than Fed speeches.
- He suggested rising market rates could tighten conditions without an immediate Fed hike.
- The 30-year Treasury yield jumped above 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
- Warsh said he welcomed markets moving independently; investors read the move as doubt about the Fed's inflation commitment.

Inflation Cools - But Not Enough
- Headline PCE inflation eased to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May.
- Core PCE slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
- Consumer spending rose 0.3%, while personal income increased 0.2%.
- The softer report reduced immediate pressure, but did not eliminate the possibility of a September hike.

Oil's Wild Week
- On Monday, July 27, oil plunged nearly 9% after Trump paused U.S. strikes against Iran.
- On Tuesday, July 28, Brent fell another 4.8% to $84.09 as traders hoped the pause could lead to peace talks.
- On Wednesday, July 29, oil reversed and jumped about 7% as airstrikes escalated and supply fears returned.
- Trump's repeated pauses, threats, and renewed attacks produced violent daily reversals in crude.
- Brent still finished July up nearly 24% as the Strait of Hormuz remained a major supply risk
- Large oil companies benefited from stronger crude, fuel and trading margins during the quarter.

The Long-Bond Warning
- The 10-year Treasury yield ended July near 4.74%, up about 32 basis points for the month.
- The 30-year yield climbed roughly 37 basis points to about 5.27%, a 19-year high.
- The move raises financing costs for mortgages, corporations and the federal government even without a Fed hike.

AI Earnings Expectations Get Extreme
- Analysts expect second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise about 48% from a year earlier.
- AI-related companies account for much of the expected growth.
- Microsoft and Amazon delivered record market-value gains after strong cloud results.
- Apple, Meta Reality Labs and weaker chip stocks showed the market is becoming less forgiving of disappointing AI returns.

~~Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year~~
~~------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth.~~
~~- Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%.~~
~~- Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%.~~
~~- Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%.~~
~~- Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion.~~
~~- Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion.~~
~~- Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion.~~
~~- Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion.~~
~~- Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion.~~

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Saying goodbye to JCD.

Andrew’s Tribute.

Growing up Dvorak with JC.

Plenty of financial news to discuss.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm-Up- JCD - Through Our Eyes
- Andrew's Tribute
- No Agenda/DHU Meet Up - 8-8 at 3:33 PM in Ft Lauderdale...
- The winner of the SpaceX CTP - and you do not want to miss this one - stay tuned for freaky coincidences on this ....

NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
- Location to be determined
- SIGN UP HERE

Meet-Up Invite

Markets-Back to SpaceX - What a rug pull! (down $1.2T from high)
- Semiconductor enter a bear market - down 25% from high
- NASDAQ 100 in correction

JC Dvorak - A look back on growing up Dvorak

Listener thoughts

NVDA - De-crowned
- Apple is now (once again) the largest stock by market cap
- This is probably due the concern around spend and Capex
- BUT, is this just a safety trade / rotation?

NVIDIA MAY BECOME OPENAI'S BANK
- Nvidia may guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for OpenAI.
- The proposed Ohio data-center project could cost more than $500 billion.
- Nvidia would be helping finance a major customer buying its infrastructure.
- The structure raises concerns about circular AI demand.
- Nvidia shares fell about 5% as investors weighed the risks.

OR - Is this now becoming known as an issue:

Circular Financing

BIG TECH GETS THE CAPEX FLU
- Alphabet beat earnings estimates, but shares fell about 7%.
- Management raised 2026 capital spending guidance to as much as $205 billion.
- Google Cloud revenue rose more than 80% to about $25 billion.
- Alphabet posted negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time since its IPO.
- Tesla fell more than 14% as investors focused on weaker profit and heavy spending.

CHINA'S CHIP IPO GOES FULL CASINO
- Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumped about 500% in its market debut.
- The company raised about $8.6 billion.
- It was Asia's largest IPO of the year.
- A small public float helped amplify the move.
- U.S. semiconductor stocks fell as investors weighed stronger Chinese competition.

THE FED MEETING WITH NO EASY ANSWER
- The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday.
- Markets are split between no change and a possible rate increase.
- Higher oil prices have raised inflation concerns.
- Treasury yields are near their highest levels since early 2025.
- The decision arrives with big-tech earnings and GDP data.

AI MONEY GOES IN CIRCLES
- Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia are linked through funding, chips and cloud deals.
- The same capital can appear as investment, demand and revenue.
- Suppliers are helping finance customers that buy their own products.
- The risk is a chain reaction if AI funding or demand slows.

OPENAI'S MODEL GOES ROGUE
- OpenAI said a model acted outside expected controls during testing.
- The incident reportedly caused a breach at a startup.
- The case goes beyond a bad answer or chatbot hallucination.
- It raises questions about giving AI agents access to real systems.
- Regulators may push for stronger testing and disclosure rules.

TESLA AND ALPHABET GET HAMMERED
- Tesla fell 13% and Alphabet dropped 7%.
- Investors focused on rising costs and heavy AI spending.
- Strong revenue was not enough to calm return-on-investment concerns.
- The market wants clearer proof that spending will produce cash flow.
- Expensive growth stories are getting less patience.

TESLA PROFIT MISSES
- Tesla's second-quarter profit fell well short of estimates.
- Rising costs weighed on the results.
- Spending remains high across vehicles, AI and robotaxis.
- Investors are questioning when those projects will improve margins.
- Softer robotaxi language added to the pressure- and of course when is the real question - promising for years.

TESLA COOLS THE ROBOTAXI TALK
- Tesla has become more cautious about robotaxi timing and expansion.
- Earlier comments suggested a much faster rollout.
- Safety, regulation and reliability remain major obstacles.
- Robotaxis are still central to Tesla's long-term valuation.
- More delays would weaken one of the company's biggest growth claims.

INTEL FINALLY GETS AN AI LIFT
- Intel shares jumped 11% after earnings.
- Revenue grew at the fastest pace in almost 15 years.
- AI-related demand helped drive the improvement.
- The report gave investors fresh evidence of a turnaround.
- Intel still trails key rivals in advanced chips and manufacturing.
- However, it turned lower in the morning and now is 35% off its high

BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK
- The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025.
- Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market.
- Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets.
- Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook.

UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER
- UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook.
--- Co-Pick for JCD and AH
- Cost controls helped drive the improvement.

NETWORKS SKIP TRUMP SPEECH
- ABC, NBC and CNN declined live primary-channel coverage.
- The speech focused on0 'election security'.
- Networks weighed news value against misinformation concerns.
- The decision could affect ratings and political advertising during mid-terms which JCD was the biggest income for any news outlet (Political elections)

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View Details

SpaceX – Price almost $135 – full retracement.

Earnings season in on – here we go!

Inflation – choppy.

War back on! Straits Open? Or?

New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up- CTP for SpaceX - Price almost hit $135 yesterday
- Earnings season 0 here we go!
- Inflation - choppy
- War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS

Markets- Inflation - Some Relief
- IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say?
- Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet
- Some interesting chart data

Health Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday....

Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up...
IBM: It's Been Murdered
IBM: I Bought Misery
IBM: Investment Board Malfunction
Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today
The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart
IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment.

IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT
- IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record.
- Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion.
- Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected.
- Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases.
- The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA.
- JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picks

TRUTH?
- President Trump says U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports; says Strait of Hormuz is open to all traffic except for Iran; says "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States"
- Can never be proven - no real numbers here.... Clearly needed to walk back the 20% item
- Hormuz still hobbled - best estimates are that the ships passing are 20% of pre-war levels

INFLATION RELIEF - FOR NOW
- June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus.
- Core CPI held at 2.6%.
- Falling gasoline and energy prices drove much of the improvement.
- Traders sharply reduced expectations for a July Fed rate increase.
- Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq advanced.

WALL STREET BANKS PRINT MONEY
- JPMorgan posted $21.2 billion in net income, helped by special items.
- Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, including an 86% jump in equities revenue.
- Bank of America earned $9.1 billion as equities trading revenue increased 70%.
- Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $20.98 per share and a 23.5% annualized return on common equity.
- Jamie Dimon described conditions as close to "as good as it gets."

THE $26.5 BILLION AI-MEMORY IPO - $ GRAB
- SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing.
- The offering priced at $149 and finished approximately 13% higher the day of the offering, but sunk the next.
- Demand reportedly exceeded the available shares by more than seven times.
- SK Hynix supplies high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia-powered AI systems.
- The listing gives U.S. investors direct access to one of the largest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
- - Samsung is on tap to do the same thing...

Some Interesting Charts

Best Quarters Plus One

Equal vs Cap-Weight

OIL'S CEASEFIRE WHIPLASH
- Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 a barrel after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down.
- WTI rose 4.4% to $73.52.
- Markets repriced the risk of interrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Energy stocks gained while airlines and the broader market weakened.
- Rising oil prices could quickly reverse the energy-related improvement seen in the June inflation report.

APPLE SUES OPENAI - AI PARTNERS TURN RIVALS
- Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging coordinated theft of hardware trade secrets.
- The defendants include OpenAI hardware chief Tang Tan and technical employee Chang Liu, both former Apple employees.
- Apple claims confidential product designs and manufacturing information were taken to accelerate OpenAI's consumer-device program.
- More than 400 former Apple employees reportedly now work at OpenAI, highlighting the scale of the talent migration between the companies.

IPO AND MEGADEAL FEVER RETURNS
- Global deals valued above $10 billion reached record levels during the first half of 2026.
- Mega-deals represented approximately 43% of newly announced M&A volume.
- Investment-banking revenue surged across JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
- Large offerings from SpaceX and SK Hynix added momentum to underwriting activity.
- The boom depends on high equity valuations, strong AI demand and large transactions continuing.

BANKS BANKS BANKSJPMORGAN CHASE - RECORD PROFIT
- Profit reached a record $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, versus $5.59 expected.
- Managed revenue totaled $58 billion, with every major business reporting record revenue.
- Markets revenue rose 35%, led by an 86% surge in equities trading.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 30% to its highest level since 2021.
- Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices remain major risks.

BANK OF AMERICA - TRADING RECORD
- Net income rose 27% to $9.1 billion, or $1.21 per share, versus $1.13 expected.
- Revenue increased 15% to $31.6 billion.
- Sales and trading revenue jumped 33% to a record $7.1 billion; equities revenue rose 70%.
- Investment-banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion.
- Full-year net-interest-income growth is now expected near the upper end of the previous 6% to 8% range.

GOLDMAN SACHS - DEAL BOOM
- Profit reached $6.63 billion, or $20.98 per share, versus $14.48 expected.
- Revenue totaled $20.3 billion.
- Equities revenue surged 72% to a record $7.42 billion.
- Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue increased 32% to $4.59 billion.
- Investment-banking fees jumped 55%, helping send Goldman shares to a record high.

CITIGROUP - DECADE-HIGH REVENUE
- Net income jumped 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, versus roughly $2.74 expected.
- Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, the bank's highest quarterly revenue in a decade.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 44% to $1.55 billion.
- Equities trading revenue rose 45%, while fixed-income trading increased 7%.
- Return on tangible common equity reached 13%, matching the upper end of management's target range.

WELLS FARGO - BACK ON OFFENSE
- Net income rose 22% to $6.4 billion, or $2.00 per share.
- Revenue reached $22.6 billion and topped expectations.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 20%.
- Markets revenue rose 24% as volatility boosted client activity.
- Management said the removal of regulatory growth restrictions is allowing the bank to deploy capital and expand its balance sheet.

Bank Returns Post Earnings (July 14, 2026)

Bank Stocks

Earnings Cheat Sheet- JULY 15 - ASML: Expected EPS around $7.92 on $10.25 billion revenue; bookings, EUV demand and updated AI-chip equipment guidance will matter most.
- JULY 15 - JOHNSON & JOHNSON: Expected EPS around $2.86 on $25.02 billion revenue; watch pharmaceutical growth, medical-device demand and full-year guidance.
- JULY 15 - MORGAN STANLEY: Expected EPS around $2.89 on $19.38 billion revenue; trading, investment banking and wealth-management inflows are the key numbers.
- JULY 15 - BLACKROCK: Expected EPS around $12.59 on $6.80 billion revenue; assets under management, ETF flows and private-market fundraising will be in focus.
- JULY 16 - TSMC: Expected EPS around $3.76-$3.77 on roughly $40 billion revenue; AI demand, gross margin and any increase to capital-spending guidance are critical.
- JULY 16 - UNITEDHEALTH: Expected EPS around $4.84 on $110.8 billion revenue; medical-cost trends and the durability of full-year guidance are the main issues.
- JULY 16 - GE AEROSPACE: Expected EPS around $1.85 on $11.8 billion revenue; engine deliveries, service revenue and supply-chain constraints will drive the reaction.
- JULY 16 - NETFLIX: Expected EPS around $0.79 on $12.58 billion revenue; advertising growth, engagement and operating-margin guidance will matter more than subscribers.
- JULY 17 - TRAVELERS: Expected EPS around $5.33 on roughly $11 billion revenue; catastrophe losses, insurance pricing and reserve development are the key swing factors.
- JULY 17 - FIFTH THIRD: Expected EPS around $0.98 on $3.25 billion revenue; net-interest income, deposit costs and credit quality will be closely watched.

WAYFAIR GOES PHYSICAL
- Wayfair opened its second large-format store in Atlanta on March 31, following the 2024 debut of its 150,000-square-foot Wilmette, Illinois flagship.
- The company is building a national store network, with Denver expected later in 2026 and Yonkers, Cincinnati and Princeton locations planned for 2027.
- The stores combine furniture, decor, appliances and home-improvement products, giving customers a chance to test large purchases before ordering.
- The strategy is a major reversal for an online-first retailer and is designed to increase brand awareness, reduce dependence on digital advertising and capture shoppers returning to physical stores.

AI SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND - PUBLIC OWNERSHIP DEBATE
- Bernie Sanders introduced legislation requiring the largest AI companies to transfer 50% of their equity into a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
- The fund is projected by supporters to hold roughly $7 trillion and could finance annual public dividends and government services.
- OpenAI has separately floated a much smaller proposal in which major AI companies would voluntarily contribute about 5% of their equity.
- Supporters call it a way to share AI-created wealth; critics warn government ownership could discourage investment, distort regulation and reduce innovation.

PSA - That's what we do....CYCLOSPORIASIS OUTBREAK - CASES SURGE
- Cyclosporiasis cases are rising across more than 30 states, with Michigan, Ohio and New York reporting particularly large increases.
- The CDC reported at least 843 confirmed cases and 86 hospitalizations by July 9, but state totals and reporting delays suggest the real count is substantially higher.
- Lettuce, salad greens and other fresh produce are being investigated, although officials have not identified a specific product, supplier or national recall.
- The parasite causes prolonged or recurring watery diarrhea; washing produce may reduce risk, and persistent symptoms should prompt medical testing and treatment.

HOW TO REDUCE CYCLOSPORIASIS RISK (FWIW)- Wash hands with soap before preparing food and after using the bathroom.
- Rinse fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs thoroughly under running water; scrubbing helps but cannot guarantee removal.
- Keep raw produce separate from unwashed items, dirty utensils and preparation surfaces.
- When traveling in tropical or subtropical areas, use safe water and avoid raw produce you cannot peel yourself; routine chemical sanitizers may not kill Cyclospora.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SpaceX (SPCX)

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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

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Starting off July on a Wobble

SpaceX added to NAZ100

Oil prices drifting lower – Gas at the pump?

JOBS Number – Odd Move

Saylor is selling Bitcoin!

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Warm-Up- JOBS Number - Odd Move
- Saylor is selling Bitcoin!
- VEGGIE ALERT!
- US RESUMES POWERFUL STRIKES ON IRAN (Is this still a ceasefire?)

Markets- Starting off July on a Wobble
- SpaceX added to NAZ100
- Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump?
- Oracle - Canary?

World Cup?
- USA is out... (Bad goalie move last night)

IRAN
- Looks like war is back on - at least for tonight
- Oil rises about 3% on the news
- US revokes Iran's ability to sell oil around the world
- Markets don't seem overly concerned - VIX still low at 16
- Odds that this will be more than a quick in and out?
--- Could it be that Iran was waiting until after the Funeral?

JOBS COOL, FED STILL HOT
- June payrolls came in at +57,000, well under the +110,000 estimate.
- April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs.
- Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but not for the best reason: the labor force shrank by 720,000 people.
- Labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than five years.
- Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, a notable hit to the consumer-service economy.
- Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 in June.
- Fed setup: weaker hiring argues for patience, but inflation is still above target, so the market is back to parsing every Fed sentence.
- - Fed Funds Futures Now only ONE Raise by Year-End

DOW RECORD, NASDAQ WOBBLE
- The Dow closed at a record 52,900.07 after the soft jobs report cooled near-term rate-hike fear.
- S&P 500 finished roughly flat.
- Nasdaq fell about 0.8% as chip stocks dragged the tape lower.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 5% on July 2.
- Apple rose nearly 5% on iPhone launch optimism.
- Nvidia and other AI/chip names stayed volatile after a huge first-half run.
- Goldman client data showed hedge funds dumped tech hardware and semiconductor exposure for a fourth straight week.
- The issue is not "AI is dead"; the issue is when all the AI capex turns into visible returns.

TESLA BEATS DELIVERIES, STOCK STILL GETS HIT
- Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, a record quarter and above Wall Street expectations.
- Production was 451,758 vehicles.
- Model 3/Y made up 467,762 deliveries.
- Other models were only 12,364.
- Energy storage deployments were 13.5 GWh.
- Shares fell about 7.5% after the report, the worst one-day drop in roughly a year.
- Pressure points: margin worries, price cuts, demand sustainability, and the market questioning whether the EV story is enough at a very rich valuation.
- As of Monday afternoon, TSLA was around $420 with a market cap near $1.49 trillion and a trailing P/E around 385.

MORE MUSK - TESLA PUTS AI ON A BUDGET
- Tesla reportedly capped employee spending on third-party AI tools at $200 per week starting July 6.
- Grok was reportedly exempt from the cap.
- Setup: Tesla wants employees using AI, but not running up unlimited outside-token bills.
- Cost-control angle: AI is becoming a normal operating expense, not a science project.
- Funny part: even at Tesla, the AI bill apparently needs a limiter.

NVIDIA SERVER DELAY NOISE
- Nvidia shares held up despite reports of delays tied to its next AI server architecture.
- SemiAnalysis reportedly said Nvidia's Kyber architecture could slip by up to 12 months into 2028.
- Nvidia pushed back and said its development roadmap is unchanged.
- Mizuho called the delay report "noise" and said it was not a material issue for the stock.
- NOTE: Story is still report-driven, not company-confirmed.

ORACLE - CANARY?
- Oracle’s stock fell 19% this week, the steepest drop since August 2001, the depths of the dot-com bust.
- The company’s capital expenditures surged 162% in the latest fiscal year, with almost $24 billion in negative free cash flow and $130 billion in debt.
- Co-founder Larry Ellison has fallen behind the Google co-founders, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell on the list of the world’s richest people.
- After the company reached a peak market cap of $900 billion in September, on enthusiasm about Oracle’s AI customers, the stock has lost about 55% of its value.
- The crux of the problem is that for Oracle to fulfill its AI infrastructure commitment, primarily to OpenAI, it’s having to raise record amounts of debt, creating balance sheet risk while focusing on lower-margin offerings.

SPACEX ENTERS THE INDEX MACHINE
- SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday after its recent IPO.
- The company's valuation is around $2.1 trillion.
- Its Nasdaq-100 weight will initially be under 1% because of limited public float.
- Index-tracking funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need exposure, creating automatic demand.
- Key issue: big valuation, small float, forced index buying.
- Watch the lockup calendar: index inclusion can create near-term demand, but employee and insider selling later can change the supply picture.
- Podcast angle: retail gets "SpaceX exposure" through QQQ, but not necessarily much exposure at first.

STRATEGY SELLS BITCOIN TO PAY THE BILLS
- Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin last week for about $216 million.
- Proceeds are being used for preferred-stock dividends and dollar reserves.
- The company still holds 843,775 bitcoin, valued around $52 billion.
- Q2 included an $8.32 billion paper loss tied to bitcoin weakness.
- The company's average bitcoin purchase price is around $75,476.
- Recent sale prices were around $59,000 to $61,000.
- Funny part: the former "never sell" bitcoin treasury poster child is now selling bitcoin to service the capital structure.
- Watch for copycats: any company that copied the bitcoin-treasury model may face the same liquidity math if crypto stays weak.

MICROSOFT CUTS AGAIN
- Microsoft said it will cut about 4,800 jobs.
- Shares slipped nearly 1%.
- Job cuts landed while investors are still rewarding AI spending.
- The message? spend heavy on AI, cut elsewhere.
--- Yes, AI is killing jobs...

SERVICES HOLD AT 54
- ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0.
- Result matched expectations.
- Reading above 50 means services activity is still expanding.
- Market took it as firm enough for growth, not hot enough to force an immediate Fed move.

EARNINGS SEASON STARTER
- Delta and PepsiCo report this week.
- Levi Strauss also reports this week.
- Delta is the read on travel, premium demand, fuel, and consumer resilience.
- PepsiCo is the read on snack pricing, volume, and lower-income consumer pressure.
- Q2 earnings bar is high after the market's strong second-quarter rally.

OIL BACK TO PRE-IRAN WAR LEVELS
- Brent settled around $71.99.
- WTI settled around $68.55.
- OPEC+ approved another output-target increase for August, adding 188,000 barrels per day.
- Since April, planned increases add up to nearly 800,000 barrels per day.
- Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, taking some geopolitical premium out of the market.
- Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, another sign the market is shifting from shortage panic to buyer resistance.
- Good for headline inflation if it sticks; bad for energy bulls who were pricing war-premium oil.

SPR DRAWDOWN
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.2 million barrels.
- SPR level is now 319.5 million barrels.
- That is the lowest level since April 1983.
- Drawdown comes while oil prices are easing and OPEC+ is adding supply.
- Energy setup: lower crude helps inflation, but reserve levels are historically thin.

MORE OIL - CHINA BUYS THE DIP
- China stepped up Middle East oil purchases as prices fell.
- Saudi Arabia cut export prices to Asia to a six-year low.
- Brent settled at $71.99.
- WTI settled at $68.55.
- OPEC+ approved another August production increase of 188,000 barrels per day.
- Planned OPEC+ supply increases since April now total nearly 800,000 barrels per day.
- Lower oil supports disinflation but raises questions about global demand.

VEGGIE ALERT

| Item | Status | | --- | --- | | Asparagus | ESCALATED | | Artichokes | EXTREME | | Cantaloupe | EXTREME | | Fennel (Anise) | EXTREME | | Green Leaf / Red Leaf Lettuce | ESCALATED | | Honeydews | EXTREME | | Iceberg Lettuce | EXTREME | | Limes (175's and larger) | ESCALATED | | Green Bell Peppers | ESCALATED | | Romaine Lettuce | EXTREME | | Romaine Hearts | EXTREME | | White Asparagus | ESCALATED | | Snacking Tomatoes (Grape & Cherry) | ESCALATED |

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
- Conair Recalls Over One Million Cuisinart Grill Brushes Due to Ingestion Hazard
- Product: Metal Wire Bristle Grill Brushes
- 1 Million or so
- BUT none of these are any good.....

CHINA NOT MESSING AROUND
- A Chinese court handed a rare death sentence to a former official on corruption charges, in a severe punishment underscoring the intensity of President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft crackdown.
- Yang Youlin, a former vice director of an economic zone in the eastern city of Nanjing, was sentenced to death on Monday for taking more than 2.21 billion yuan ($325 million) of bribes between 2013 and 2023, according to the state broadcaster China Central Television.
- Yang was found guilty also of embezzlement, abuse of power and money laundering. His crimes were “exceptionally grave” and caused massive losses, warranting the capital sentence, CCTV reported, citing the Changzhou Intermediate People’s Court in Jiangsu province.

DRONES
- Dronemaker AeroVironment reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines.
- The company’s funded backlog of $1.2 billion was up substantially over last year, but grew only slightly from the $1.1 billion last quarter.
- Autonomous systems were a strong point with revenue of $492 million that beat the $402 million StreetAccount expectation.

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Happy 250th!

The bulls are bubbling up!

Yentervention – it is a thing.

Labor market predictions.

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Warm-Up- 250 Years!
- We have the scorecard
- Bulls are on the loose!
- Kevin Hassett - what a putz
- RAM JOB!

Markets- Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one
- SpaceX bonds already losing
-Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention?

WHAT A PUTZ!
- Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office.
- Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028.
- Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money.
- Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap.
- Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood.
- Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club.
- However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism.
- Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money.
- So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism.

First-Half Winners and Losers
- S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure.
- Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%.
- Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%.
- Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%.
- Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%.
- Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff.
- Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders.
- Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries.
- Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade.
- Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain...

MORE....
- Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013
- Japan best quarter ever
- Oil starts and ends
- Kospi best quarter in 30 years
- Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years

Something is going to break!
- When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break
- MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron’s latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11.
- HUGE uptick in guidance
- Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases,
- NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies

Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory
- Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers.
- Samsung’s plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang.
- SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply.
- Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex.
- The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones.
- Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles.
- Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities.

RAM Job?
- Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing.
- Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers.
- Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market.
- Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years.
- Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike.
- Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time.

DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before
- Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s.
- DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002.
- Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine.
- Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine.
- Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine.
- Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path.
- Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty.
- State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims.
- Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom.

Chevron and Microsoft
- Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power.
- Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility.
- Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts.
- Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes.
- Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later.
- Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations.

More Oil News - Drill baby Drill
- Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration.
- Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases.
- Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned.
- Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development.
- Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication.

Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce- Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74.
- S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%.
- S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks.
- Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component.
- Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%.
- The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names.

Comcast Breaks Itself Up- Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies.
- NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable.
- Completion expected within a year.
- Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal.
- Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal.

AI Trade Gets a Warning Label
- Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk.
- The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain.
- BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks.
- Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other."
- The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile.

Inflation Back Above 4%
- BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May.
- April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%.
- This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes.
- Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%.
- Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software.

Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News
- June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day.
- The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes.
- Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.
- Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts.

Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine
- Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines.
- Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75.
- Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing.
- The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies.
- This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat.
--- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened.

Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock
- Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target.
- Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday.
- Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention.
- New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title.
- Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally.
- Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze.
- Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million.

SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut
- SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal.
- Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders.
- The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys.
- Bonds weakened quickly after pricing.
- The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points.
- Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure.
- The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions.
- Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down.

Yentervention
- Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years.
- Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time."
- Market does not seem scared for long.
- Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160.
- U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly.
- That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars.
- Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive.

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Announcing the CTP for SpaceX.

MahJong Craze gone wild.

Goodbye to Alan Greenspan – The Maestro.

Have you seen RAM prices?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up- Announcing the CTP for SpaceX
- MahJong Craze
- Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro
- Have you seen RAM prices?

Markets- Economic Collapse Imminent?
- Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play
- Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound?
-- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF
- Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIA

DEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100

Google Enters DJIA
- High priced shares
- Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move
- Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA
- Tech: S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+)

Computer Pricing
- What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000
- Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order
- Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price?

Endless
- SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor.
- AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI
- - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month from July 2026 through the end of 2029.
- - -- - - The Infrastructure: The startup will tap into hardware and GB300 chips housed at SpaceX’s Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.

More SpaceX
- SpaceX shares were as high as $220 post IPO.
- Sharea ahve been down over the past 3 days.
- Most that got in POST IPO probably bought in at about $162-$165
- Newsline: SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time.
- The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company’s first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period.
- SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions.

Missed Opportunity
- Short the Mattress companies he said......
----- Got squeezed out....Never to return

Swing and a Miss

Maybe Because this can happen...
- Shares of Getty Images Holdings Inc. soared as much as 145% on Monday after it announced a licensing deal with OpenAI.
- Getty said that images from its library will appear in the search and discovery features of ChatGPT, marking a key reversal for the firm.
- The partnership with OpenAI could improve “licensing optics” and shift the narrative on the stock, according to analyst Mark Zgutowicz.
- Getty shares were up 118% to $1.32 as of 12:44 p.m. in New York, putting them on track for the best session since July 2022. The stock had fallen about 55% this year to close at 61 cents on Thursday before the Juneteenth holiday weekend began.

KOREA - SK Hynix
- New #1 in South Korea: SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics on Monday to become the country's most valuable listed company.
- Remarkable turnaround: A striking reversal for a chipmaker that nearly collapsed under heavy debt roughly two decades ago. (CYCLES)
- AI memory leader: Now the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips powering AI systems.
- Marquee customers: Key buyers include Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL).
- Massive 2026 rally: Shares are up more than 340% year-to-date, fueled by the global AI boom.
- Market cap milestone: Valuation now exceeds both Samsung and Micron (MU).

Markets Get Chopped
- Questions being asked about if AI spend boom producing fast enough return
- Back to earth on valuation scare - (all of a sudden?)
- KOSPI down 11%
- Chips getting hit - 12% for Memory ETF
- MU down 9%, Intel 4%, ASML 7%

RAM Prices...- Looking at some additional RAM today for some office computers ....
--- ARE THEY KIDDING?

RAM PricesImminent Collapse????
- President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran.
- According to sources, the deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and set in motion waivers for sanctions on Iran’s oil sales to the international market, with the effect being an immediate drop in oil prices and a rise in US stocks.
- The agreement has been seen as skewed in Iran’s favor, giving the country broad gains before the next round of talks, and has prompted pushback and anger from Republican lawmakers.
- MOU signed lat Wednesday - also now more waivers of sanctions on sale of Iranian oil - 60 day reprieve.

China
- Weak economic conditions
- H Shares about to enter bear market
- Hong Kong
- Close to a technical bear market, dragged down by weak domestic consumption, a struggling property sector, and an exodus of funds fleeing "old tech" for AI plays elsewhere in Asia.
- A-shares are listed in mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen) and primarily target domestic investors. H-shares are listed in Hong Kong and are freely available to international investors

More China
- Retail sales declined for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier.
- China’s urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% as of end-May, dragged by real estate and manufacturing.
- Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020.
- Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rebounding from April’s near three-year low.
- The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April.

Marrrr Jonggg
- Mahjong can be highly addictive due to its rewarding blend of strategy, luck, and social interaction. The rapid tile-drawing, need for pattern recognition, and "just one more round" mentality trigger dopamine releases. If compulsive play disrupts your finances or daily life, it can become a behavioral addiction requiring intervention.
- Tactile and Auditory Appeal: Many users on community forums like Reddit agree that the physical weight, texture, and distinct clinking sound of shuffling tiles provide soothing, sensory satisfaction.
- There has been a 70% surge in mahjong content on TikTok in the past year
- Yelp recently named the Chinese tile game a top trend of 2026, noting that searches for mahjong clubs surged 4,467% year over year for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 and that searches for mahjong lessons rose 819%.

Alphabet - WHAT>????&^
- Alphabet shares slid 7%, on track for the search giant’s worst day in a year.
- Alphabet’s Google has seen consecutive high-profile researchers leave in the last several days.
- The company also has exposure to the market’s concerns around commoditized AI and ballooning capital expenditures.
- The share slide also came on the heels of a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who called for less dependence on “AI Giants” and said the AI market was commoditized.

Back to Oracle
- Oracle reduced workforce by 21,000 employees over past twelve months.
- Cuts broader than previously disclosed, driven by artificial intelligence adoption.
- Global headcount fell from 162,000 to 141,000 full-time employees year-over-year.
- Workforce reductions generated $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, company reported.
- Company warned AI deployment may continue resulting in workforce reductions.

NVDA - Underperforming
- Nvidia shares slipping recently despite remaining up about 12% in 2026.
- Stock down roughly 3% past month, underperforming semiconductor peers.
- SMH ETF surged 84% year-to-date, gaining 15% last month.
- Traders predict Nvidia chip pricing power is beginning to decline.
- Wall Street focus shifting toward memory and infrastructure AI buildout.
- Micron and Sandisk shares jumped nearly 60% over past month.

Gloom and Doom
- JCD sent interesting take from Chris Bloomstran
- Traditionally asset light companies with all sorts of revenue, high margins now....
---- Converting into asset heavy with no real understanding of what the profitability or even revue will be in the future
----- Here are the highlights of his commentary we can explre:
------------AI buildout shifting markets from asset-light toward capital-intensive infrastructure cycle
- Hyperscaler capex surge reflects move into heavy, long-duration asset base
- Massive capital requirements challenge economics versus prior asset-light models
- Depreciation burden rising sharply as infrastructure scales across AI ecosystem
- Returns depend on utilization of expensive, long-lived physical compute assets
- Asset-heavy cycles historically lead to overbuild, weak returns, eventual consolidation
- Infrastructure spending absorbing nearly all operating cash flow for hyperscalers
- Off-balance-sheet financing masking true scale of capital intensity shift
- AI economics hinge more on physical capacity than software-driven scalability
- Echoes of past asset-heavy booms with eventual oversupply and value destruction

Amazon Day - Today - June 26th
- US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online at Amazon and other retailers during the four-day sale, up 9% from last year’s event in July, according to Adobe Inc.
- About 201 million Amazon shoppers in the US were Prime subscribers as of March, up about 3% from a year earlier
- Amazon will capture about 60% of all US online spending during Prime Day, its highest market share since 2019, according to estimates from EMarketer Inc.

FedEx Earnings
- FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company’s last quarter that included the freight business before its spin off.
- FedEx Freight spun off into a separate publicly traded company on June 1.
- The company said it saw a 3% year-over-year increase in domestic volume.
- Stock down 6% A/H

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Let’s Make a Deal!

News Dominated by … SpaceX

This week – Fed rate Decision

Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)

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Warm-Up- Let's Make a Deal!
- News Dominated by ... SpaceX
- This week - Fed rate Decision
- Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)

Markets- Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again
- IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roof

DEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.

Market Valuations
- S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5
- 10-yr average = 19–20x
- Long-term average 18-19
- Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.

NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24
1-yr average ~23x
20-yr average ~20–21x
Not screaming expensive on a forward basis
- NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40

NEW Playbook
- But the Rumor and Buy the News
- used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News
- This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow....
- Monday = Deal, Friday = signing

On that note
- What is the deal anyway?
- Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final
- Straights of Hormuz opening -??
- Has anyone seen the text?
- We are no better than we were before all this started...

Headline Nonsense
- Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k)
- Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums
- This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals
- HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this.
- - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look at the options...

More Retirement Alerts
- Social Security running out again....
- Less that 10 year until the reserves are exhausted
- The Social Security Administration’s newly released 2026 Trustees Report confirms that the federal retirement safety net is less than seven years away from fiscal depletion, as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will completely exhaust its accumulated reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032.
- Once the reserve dries up, ongoing tax revenues will cover only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the report.
- Some of the blame is being laid on the OBBBA with higher standard deductions and lower taxes on SS Benefits
- "The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65," it says. "As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits."

PSA
- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified a recall of more than 900 cases of Alfredo sauce at its highest risk level after a supplier recalled a dry milk powder ingredient used in the product due to potential salmonella contamination.
- The FDA designated the recall as a Class I event, its most serious classification, meaning there is a reasonable probability that use of or exposure to the product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death.
- The Coffee Connexion Co., Inc.
- According to the FDA, the product was distributed in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Monday Markets
- 5:45PM Sunday night we see an announcement that there is a Deal!
- Why 5:45PM????????
- Futures rally, oil drops
- This is just days after the market already surged after a Truth Social post last Thursday that said that the US will "soon" sign a deal with IRAN
---- That pushed up markets quite a bit too
- Buy the rumor and buy the news...

Reality Check
- Thursday: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “we have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
- Monday: 60-day period delay to continue discussions of nuclear issues
- Is there a sucker in all of this?

$ for IRAN
- Supposedly there i some deal...
- A $300 billion private fund designed ?to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the U.S.-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with ?direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters.
- The fund is designed to give both sides an economic incentive to conclude a final deal, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been announced as Washington and Tehran prepare to sign on Friday.

SpaceX
- IPO - Finally!
$135 per share - Rose to $160+/- on the debut day
- Rather smooth process and very orderly
- A total of $85B was raised - due to an add-on additional green-shoe that was allowed ($10B) for institutions.
- Rose another $20% on Monday
- Retail got about 20% of the deal (down from 30%)

Oracle
- Oracle Corp. shares declined after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
- The company expects to spend about $70 billion on net capital expenditures in the current fiscal year, and plans to raise another $40 billion in equity and debt.
- Oracle's cloud infrastructure business gained 93% to $5.8 billion, and total cloud revenue is projected to jump about 61% in the quarter ending in August.
- The increase of $5B over the course of the year was disconcerting to investors.
- Shares dropped the most in over 6 months on the news

CPI and PPI
- May CPI was mixed but generally cooler on the core reading, with headline CPI up 0.5% month-over-month, matching consensus, while Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus and below Briefing's 0.4% estimate.
- The softer core CPI reading suggests some easing in underlying consumer inflation pressures, which is the more constructive part of the inflation picture.
- May PPI was firmer than expected on the headline reading, with PPI up 1.1% versus 0.7% consensus and 0.8% Briefing estimate, matching the prior month's revised 1.1% pace.
- Core PPI rose 0.4%, matching consensus and coming in below the prior month's revised 0.7%, indicating wholesale inflation remained elevated but did not accelerate further on the core measure.
- Taken together, the CPI and PPI reports point to a mixed inflation backdrop: consumer-level core inflation looked somewhat better, but producer-level price pressures remained sticky.

Cyberdyne
- Anthropic announced Claude Fable 5, a Mythos-class model that will be available to its enterprise customers and paid subscribers.
- The company unveiled Mythos in April and has limited the rollout because of its advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
- Anthropic said Claude Fable 5?s broad release is possible because of new safeguards that block responses in specific high-risk areas.
- WAIT! The US government PULLED the plug on Mythos and Fable for any foreign national
- From Anthropic - The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Anthropic models will not be affected.

OpenAi
- Confidentially flies for IPO
- Sends financials and IPO materials to regulators - making sue all in good order.
- This allows the company to iron out accounting, compliance, and regulatory issues in private without triggering a "media circus" or alerting competitors to their financials

Last Friday.....
- Nonfarm payrolls jumped a seasonally adjusted 172,000 for the period, down slightly from the upwardly revised 179,000 in April and far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and were up 3.4% over the past year, both in line with the Wall Street consensus.

Screwworm
- The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas, the first known case of that fly in the United States since 2017.
- New World screwworm larvae “burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing serious damage to livestock and economic losses,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
- The USDA and Texas officials are taking immediate action to contain and eradicate the pest.
- In December, the Food and Drug Administration granted conditional approval to the topical solution Exzolt Cattle-CA1, which is used to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations and is produced by Merck & Co.
- What is going to happen to beef prices?

Real Estate
- Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin.
- Delistings were up 3.8% compared with March.
- Atlanta saw the highest share of homes come off the market in April, with 1 in 10 delisted. San Jose, California, followed with roughly 9% pulled, then Los Angeles (7.8%), Dallas (7.8%) and Seattle (7.7%).

In other news....
- The Japanese city of Utsunomiya has suspended all 94 of the primary and middle schools ?that it operates on Monday after its ?first-ever bear sighting, a municipal official said.
- The city of half-a-million residents about 100 km (60 miles) north of Tokyo said ?the bear was first seen in a residential ?area near a park on Saturday evening. It ?remains at large after the last sighting early ?Monday morning about half a kilometre from a ?middle school.

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Another good month – investors are giddy.

Oil – CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball).

Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control.

A major name says they are reducing stocks – but are they really?

Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce (CRM).

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Warm-Up- Another good month - investors are giddy
- Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball)
- Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control
- A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really?
- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce

Markets- Huge reversal in Software stocks
- A few names on the move - and moving BIG!
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roof

Pizza Mouth !

Reversal
- Software stocks bounced this week on strong results from Snowflake and Okta, which both recorded their best days on record.
- The results signal that investors may have been too quick to declare the end of software with the emergence of artificial intelligence.
- Even as AI displaces certain tools and job functions, many software companies continue to show growth, assisted by their own AI products.
- The iShares Expanded Tech-Software exchange-traded fund rose 8% this week and closed May up 21%, the best monthly performance for the ETF since October 2001.
- With this month’s rally, the iShares software ETF is only down 3.8% for the year, still badly trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 18% in 2026.

Snowflake
- Amazon said Wednesday that its cloud division has landed a $6 billion spending commitment from Snowflake, which includes the use of the company’s custom silicon and chips for artificial intelligence.
- Snowflake’s purchase of services and technology from Amazon Web Services will occur over five years, according to a press release about the agreement.
- Snowflake intends to expand its use of Amazon’s Graviton general-purpose chips, as well as cloud-based graphics processing units for AI.
- Snowflake and Amazon are frenemies - they compete but also partner with each other.
- Stock up 36% on this news

DELL!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Dell Technologies Inc. shares surged due to an outlook for annual sales that far surpassed expectations on demand for servers that power artificial intelligence work.
- Revenue in the fiscal year ending in January 2027 will be about $167 billion, including $60 billion from the sale of AI servers, topping analysts’ average estimate of $142.1 billion.
- The company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and generated $16.1 billion in AI server sales in the quarter ended May 1, with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke saying “The AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing.”
- The shares surged 33% to $420.91 at the close Friday in New York, the biggest single-day increase in the more than seven years since the hardware maker returned to the public markets after a five-year hiatus as a private firm.
- Up 150% YTD

More Dell
- New XPS 13 at $699 targets price-sensitive market
- Aims to compete with MacBook Neo, lower-end Windows devices
- Launch amid global memory chip crunch to gain market share
- WINING OVER JCD:
-- 13.4-inch screen (very compact footprint)
Options: 2K / 2.5K LCD (120Hz)
OLED touchscreen (higher contrast)|
- Very thin bezels ? almost edge?to?edge screen
- Weighs 2.2 lbs - one of the lightes out there and a rival to Apple's Macbook Neo

Infighting
- OpenAI may release multi-chip AI software, challenging Nvidia's (NVDA) ecosystem advantage, according to The Information
- Oh, and NVDA is now releasing a CPU for PCs that is aggrevating Intel and AMD

Kaboom!
- Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball while undergoing a test on a Florida launchpad, dealing a major setback to the company.
- The explosion is the latest blow to New Glenn's reputation as a reliable alternative to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and Blue Origin’s launch schedule is certain to suffer significant delays.
- The incident will also affect Amazon’s ambitions to build out its Leo satellite network and may delay Blue Origin's role in NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to send humans back to the moon.
- As important as it will be for Blue Origin to diagnose the cause of the rocket explosion, it could take many months to repair its launchpad in Florida.

Taking Down - Really?
- BlackRock Inc. is trimming its bet on stocks across its model-portfolio business as US equities surge to record highs following a strong earnings season.
- The firm cut its overweight position in equities from 3% to 1%, triggering billions of dollars of flows between BlackRock’s exchange-traded funds.
- BlackRock remains confident in equities and will maintain positions that bet on growing corporate profits, artificial intelligence and government spending, but is rotating away from longer-dated US debt in favor of global fixed-income and liquid alternatives.

Slight
- SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The company is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time, and is expected to start formal marketing of its IPO as soon as June 4.
-SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and the company's pitch to investors shows its evolution into an AI services and infrastructure giant with a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
- 3-5% of the shares will be floated (TIGHT)

Strategy: keep supply constrained, which:
- supports price discovery
- maintains founder control
- creates early scarcity dynamics
- - SpaceX has reserved 5% of the shares ?in its planned initial public offering for certain employees and individuals selected by its executive officers, exempting them from post-IPO lock-up restrictions

AND.. Even more Valuations
- AI giant Anthropic is now worth more than OpenAI.
- Anthropic announced a $65 billion Series H financing at a $965 billion valuation, a round led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital.
- The financing puts its valuation above that of rival AI lab OpenAI.
- The valuation has TRIPLED since February

Let's GO!
- Shares of LG Electronics surged as much as 24% after the company announced a series of automotive innovations built with technology from Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
- The company said its new range of solutions is built on Android automotive operating systems. Its system can control multiple displays with different aspect ratios at the same time by using a single-on-chip, which is different from other conventional in-vehicle display systems, LG said.
- But 24% on this news?
- More reason that the KOSPI is moving higher

No One Care - But...
- Inflation has been above the 2% target for 5 years now
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Thursday that bringing down inflation in the U.S. remains his top priority, warning that consumer prices are still “much too high.”|
- Speaking to CNBC’s Kaori Enjoji at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Kashkari said that the U.S. central bank would continue taking a “balanced approach” to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
- 5 YEARS!
---- What that tells us is that the Fed is totally unable to do anything about inflation .... Are we the only ones that see that?

Inside Baseball
- From a colegie that will go un-named.
--- Let's just say he is someone who knows what they are talking about and runs BIG money
----- This is what he said to me.....
- Apparently, oil execs were opining with POTUS in meetings yesterday that oil inventories are at alarmingly low levels and oil prices could soon skyrocket (I might soften that language a bit but they know the oil biz better than me) if SoH does not open soon.
- I ran a few numbers on total oil inventories including and excluding the SPR.
- Total supplies are 10th percentile vs history (although that includes a period when the SPR ramped from 0 to 600mln barrels in the 1980’s).
- Today it is 4th percentile if you start from 1990 when the SPR was basically full.
- The 4 week net and % draw the last 3 weeks are the largest draws of all time.
- And not surprising the 1 week net and % draw of the SPR are also the 2 largest draws of all time the last 2 weeks.

Surprised - No....
--- This is another story similar to what we saw a few months ago
- Taiwan prosecutors suspect that three individuals smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia Corp. AI chips to China after first exporting them to Japan.
- The trio was detained for allegedly falsifying documents related to exports of Super Micro Computer Inc. servers containing advanced Nvidia chips, which the US has barred from sale to China without a license.
- Taiwan authorities seized about 50 servers for which they accuse the trio of preparing fraudulent export documents, but at least one shipment had already gone through Taiwan customs and made it to Hong Kong.

Under/Over?
- Tesla will be somehow folder/merged or taken over by SpaceX in an all stock deal
- Tesla market cap is $1.6 Trillion so that will be a tough one to take on as SpaceX is about equal in size.
---- If this happens, when ?

Mini Retirement - Is this a THING?
- A mini retirement is when you take a planned break from working, usually for a few months to a couple of years, instead of waiting until age 65+ to fully retire.
- Tim Feerris popularized this... (4 day workweek dude)

Step 1: Work & save aggressively

2–10+ years
Build a specific “freedom fund”

Step 2: Take time off

3 months to 2 years
Travel, recharge, pursue interests, or experiment with new ideas

Step 3: Return to work

Same career… or pivot to something new

Then repeat if desired.

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Oil Drops – Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years

Consumer Sentiment Drops again

New Fertilizer coming – Kinda Soilent Green vibe

Everyone is talking about SpaceX

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up- Oil Drops - Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
- Consumer Sentiment Drops again
- New Fertilizer coming - Kinda Soilent Green Concept
- Everyone is talking about SpaceX

Markets- Nothing Really Matters - Anyone can see - New HIGHS
- Governments picking the winners again
- CHIPS !
- Concentration

NVDA
- Over the weekend, Jensen Huang said that his forecast of a $200 billion market for CPUs includes China, signalling Nvidia still sees significant long-term demand in the market amid ongoing U.S.-China technology tensions.
- During an earnings call on Wednesday, Huang said Nvidia's new "Vera" central processors give it access to a new $200 billion market.
- So, once again the PR machine is running overtime to make sure there is no reason for anyone to sell the stock - needed to make this clarification over the weekend
- Nvidia has received licenses from the U.S. government to sell its H200 chips but has not received approval from Chinese officials who are fostering China's own chip suppliers.

Consumers
- Consumer sentiment has tumbled to a fresh record low in May as fears of higher prices grow due to the U.S.-Iran war and elevated oil prices, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday.
- The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April.

Consumers Upset

South Korea
- Record after record...
- This is an impressive chart
- Two companies -Samsung and SK Hynix
-----40% of the entire KOSPI index's total market capitalization.

Kospi Index

Who Believes this Crap?
- U.S. forces have conducted “self defense” strikes in southern Iran early Tuesday, with U.S. Central Command saying that this was to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.“
- “U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins added.
- Meanwhile there was some talk over the weekend that
--- 1) We are very close to a deal and it will happen soon
----2) We are in no rush for a deal
----3) How many times is this same line going to be used to try to push the price of oil down (it did move towards $90 after the weekend resumption of futures trading)
- Neither side can agree on anything... Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States has seen some progress towards a deal but that more work was required, while Iran's foreign ministry said the differences remained deep and significant.
- Tiresome

CEO of Ford
- Did you know -???
- The CEO of Ford (Jim Farley) is cousin to Chris Farley

Farley and Farley

Crops
- Farmers worldwide are under pressure due to the Iran war disrupting supplies of conventional nitrogen fertilizers, forcing them to improvise ahead of the fall planting season.
- Some farmers are turning to age-old solutions like manure, while others are experimenting with newer technologies, including waste-based inputs and microbial products.
-----Circular bio-economy
The crisis is giving fresh momentum to products that have long struggled to gain widespread adoption, with demand for biofertilizers and biostimulants rising and companies seeing rising interest and increased sales.
- Municipal wastewater and treated human urine, which contain high levels of nutrients that can be processed.
---- So, if your corn is a little extra yellow this summer - now you know...

Government's Hand
- Quantum computing shares popped last Thursday, as the U.S. government said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms operating in the space.
- IBM is the biggest beneficiary of the package, with the U.S. Commerce Department agreeing to give the firm $1 billion.
- Chipmaker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million, while other grant recipients D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion will be awarded $100 million.
- Shares of D-Wave added 33%, Rigetti soared 30% and Infleqtion skyrocketed about 31%.
- Funding will come from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.

More Money Throwing
- Nvidia Corp. bought $500 million worth of rights for shares in Corning Inc. as part of a partnership to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Corning pledged to increase US fiber production capacity by more than 50% to supply more optical fiber for AI data centers.
- The partnership includes Corning's plan to construct three new complexes in North Carolina and Texas, which is estimated to create more than 3,000 new US jobs.

DEBT
- Global debt hits new record, IIF (institute for International Finance) report shows
- Global debt rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 2026, increasing by more than $4.4 trillion to a record high of over $350 trillion, with the increase concentrated largely in the United States and China.
- Investors shows signs of shift away from Treasuries
- Global debt-to-GDP ratio stable around 305%
- NOTHING TO SEE HERE

Global Debt

More Charts

AI Reality?
- Starbucks retires AI tool nine months after North American deployment
- Tool was part of CEO Brian Niccol's campaign to fix product shortages
- AI tool miscounted items, leading to errors, Reuters has reported
Starbucks cites need for consistency, supply chain improvements in ending program

More AI
- Elon Musk's Grok is seeing minimal adoption in US government - even though it's cheap-
- Grok lags far behind OpenAI and other rivals that analysts call more capable
- Data shows uptake by corporations is also weak, suggesting Grok's problems stretch beyond government
- Is it possible that corps don't trust Musk after the way he heavy handled the DOGE process?
- Is this going to impact SpaceX growth story?

Employment and Ai
- The co-founder of AI company Anthropic said on Monday that the development of artificial intelligence cannot be left solely to technology companies, urging greater oversight from religious leaders, governments and civil society.
- Speaking at the presentation of Pope Leo's first encyclical, addressing the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, Chris Olah said there was "a real possibility" that AI will displace human labour "at very large scale".

Scared
- China is restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals in private firms, requiring them to get approval from relevant authorities before embarking on overseas travel.
- The government is targeting talent within the AI sphere, including startup founders, researchers, and executives, and adding individuals to the list based on assessments of their critical importance to the country.
- The restrictions risk undermining the ability of AI firms in China to recruit and retain talent, and may force engineers with global ambitions to choose between staying home or going abroad earlier in their careers.

CHIPS
- Micron topped a $1 trillion market value for the first time on Tuesday as shares popped 18%, driven by insatiable artificial intelligence demand for its memory chips.
- The stock surge came as UBS tripled its price target on the stock from $535 to $1,625 a share, citing long-term agreement opportunities with partially fixed pricing.
- “We believe the market will start to put a more ‘normal’ multiple on the stock and MU will continue to re-rate higher as more details emerge about the structural changes AI has driven to the entire memory complex,” the firm wrote.

SpaceX
- Lots of interest on this...
- Lots of clients calling on this and we are working on this for them
- Here is a bit of a reality check...
--- First - company still losing billions of dollars - some may look past that
- - Weird inclusion period for indices and that may take stock up due to required buying ahead of the inclusion (keeping a floor on prices in the beginning)
---- SpaceX plans to allow a large portion of its shares to become eligible for resale before the usual six-month restriction period post-IPO, under a staged system conditioned to the company's performance, a company filing shows.
- The approach, designed to avoid a large wave of shares hitting the market at once, would depart from the standard 180-day lock-up that has prevailed in the U.S. Most companies going public restrict early investors from selling shares to help stabilize the stock.
- Valuation somewhere between $1.5T and $2T (a year ago it was like $400 million)
- Valuation in December was $750 M
- Rationale for the big valuation: SpaceX is leveraging its satellite network to build massive, space-based AI data centers, which take advantage of limitless solar energy and off-planet cooling

Retail
- Ross Stores Inc. raised its sales and profit guidance after first-quarter results surpassed consensus estimates, aided by strong customer traffic among younger shoppers.
- The company reported sales of $6.01 billion and earnings of $2.02 per share, with same-store sales growing 17% in the period, a record for Ross.
- Ross now expects full-year same-store sales to grow 6% to 7%, and earnings of $7.50 to $7.74 per share, with executives citing increased customer traffic as a key driver of profit.

Meanwhile
- Walmart issued a worse-than-expected financial outlook amid soaring gas prices.
- Finance chief John David Rainey said high tax returns may have muted some of the impact high gas prices had on shoppers in the first quarter, indicating consumer pressures could rise in the current quarter
- The big-box retailer issued fiscal first-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations on the top line but were only in line on the bottom.
- The retailer said it’s expecting adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.75 and $2.85, lower than expectations of $2.91, according to LSEG.
- Walmart said it anticipates net sales will rise between 3.5% and 4.5% for the year.

Ferrari - Electric
- Ferrari (RACE) is trading lower today after the company unveiled its first fully electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, marking a major strategic shift away from its traditional combustion-engine supercar identity.
- The Luce is a four-door, five-seat ultra-luxury EV developed with former Apple (AAPL) design chief Jony Ive, featuring a quad-motor setup producing over 1,000 horsepower, a 0--60 mph time of roughly 2.5 seconds, and a price tag around $640,000.
- Despite these headline-grabbing performance specs, investors reacted negatively because the design is seen as a sharp break from RACE's iconic styling, with many critics arguing it looks closer to a mass-market EV than a traditional Ferrari.

Saying goodbye
- One of America’s once-dominant beer brands is being discontinued after more than 175 years.
- Schlitz Premium, a beer brand that traces its roots to Milwaukee in the 1840s and was once among the largest breweries in the country, is being put "on hiatus," parent company Pabst Brewing Co. confirmed Friday after Wisconsin Brewing Company announced it would brew the brand’s final batch later this month.
- "Unfortunately, we have seen continued increases in our costs to store and ship certain products and have had to make the tough choice to place Schlitz Premium on hiatus," Zac Nadile, Pabst head of brand strategy, said in a statement to Milwaukee Magazine.

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– Happy Memorial Day

– A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh – good luck fella, you are going to need it sir.

– The new transient inflation.

– Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs…

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Warm-Up- Happy Memorial Day
- A WARM DHU welcome to Kevin Warsh - good luck fella, you are going to need it
- The new transient inflation
- Another BOARD? These guys like to make exclusive clubs...

Markets- Starting to come in a bit.....
- Yield curve steepening - potential for a hike over cuts
- YIELDS!
- Fuels running low - we have the list

OH MY...
- The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to around 5.14%, putting it at its highest level since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis
- Bets are pricing in the increasingly possibility of it reaching 5.5% to 6%, which would mark the highest levels since late 1999
- 30-Year mortgage near 6.35% (average) - DOWN from 6.91% at start of 2026

30-Year Yield

Bored of Boards
- The Board of Peace - remember that one? That was established in 2025 with 15+ countries that pitched in $1 billion for permanent seat
- Indefinitely chaired by President Trump, the governing board is a mix of U.S. officials and prominent American businessmen.
- So much for the peace part of that....
- Now we hear about the Board of Investment
---The US and China are discussing a mechanism for fast-tracking some Chinese investment deals and a reduction in tariffs on non-critical goods.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned a "Board of Investment" that will be responsible for investment in non-sensitive areas.
- The idea of the "Board of Investment" is to have a mechanism that could allow deals that wouldn’t need to be referred to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
- In other words - working outside of the established channels that primary function is to determine whether these transactions pose risks to U.S. national security.

IRAN
- On and off as usual
- Cancelled a scheduled bombing?
- President Trump speaking with reporters says he will know "soon" if U.S. needs to give Iran another big hit; says Gulf states are helping with negotiations; says Iran keeps agreeing to things and changing their mind; says Iran has 2-3 days to make a deal
- This is the parental attempt to manupluate a child - I am going to count to THREE.... 1-2-3-4-5-6

China Trip
- Chinese President Xi Jinping warned U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday that the U.S. and China “will have clashes and even conflicts” if the long-standing issue of Taiwan’s independence is mishandled.
- Speaking just ahead of Trump, Xi noted the global attention on the meeting, and said a major question for the two countries was whether they could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” according to an official English translation of his remarks broadcast by CCTV.
- The Thucydides Trap refers to how tensions historically between a rising and ruling power have often resulted in a war.

Some Observations
- Veggie Prices are off the charts
--- Cauliflower $9, Carrots $6 small bag (not organic)
- - Favorite produce store noticed things going bad.... Realized that people are not buying stuff

PPI Inflation - HOTTTTTTTT
- Headline MoM: +1.4%
- YoY: +6.0%
- Core PPI (ex food & energy): about +1.0% MoM
- Energy was a big part, but services also saw a large move
- Highest monthly increase since march 2022
--- In reaction bonds are selling off - highest on 10 and 30 year since March 2024 (10 YR Broke above 4.65)

Outbreak
- An Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization
- 80 deaths were attributed to the disease.
- Outbreak does not meet pandemic criteria, WHO says
- Eight laboratory-confirmed cases and 246 suspected cases
- At least six Americans in the DRC have been exposed to the Ebola virus, with three exposures deemed high risk

WHAT?
- One of the highest margin foods, pizza and pasta
- Domino's Pizza, is among the pizza giants whose franchisees have filed for bankruptcy
- Papa Johns: We have identified approximately 300 underperforming restaurants across North America that are not meeting brand expectations or lack a clear path to sustainable financial improvement, as well as locations where we can effectively transfer sales to a nearby restaurant
- Pizza Hut, which also hasn't filed for bankruptcy (YET) , won't be left out of closings as the company's parent Yum! Brands in February said that it would close 250 underperforming locations as part of its Hut Forward plan in the first half of 2026.
- PZZA down 65% over the past 5 years
- The Papa John's board formally ousted founder and former CEO John "Papa" John" Schnatter in a series of steps culminating in July 2018 and March 2019

BONDS - Yields Spiking
- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Friday following a week of messy inflation data and as traders looked to price interest rate policy under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
- The yield on the 30-year bond jumped nearly 11 basis points to yield 5.121%, the highest since May 22, 2025, and nearing the highest since October 2023.
- Japanese long-term bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) hitting 2.8%—its highest level since October 1996

M&A Utilities
- U.S. power companies NextEra Energy and Dominion Energy announced a plan to merge on Monday in a $66.8 billion deal that ?will form one of the world's largest electric utilities during an expansion of energy-intensive data centers to support artificial intelligence.
- The all-stock transaction, which is pending ?regulatory approvals, is one of the largest-ever energy mergers.
- Industry consolidation -
-- This year, AES Corp agreed to be acquired by a consortium led by Global Infrastructure Partners and Swedish ?private-equity firm EQT AB for $33.4 billion.
---- That followed Constellation Energy's $16 billion deal with Calpine and Blackstone's $11.5 billion deal for TXNM Energy last year.

SOYBEANS
- Trump's visit to China yielded little in the way of anything
- The United States expects China to sign up to buy "double-digit billions" worth of U.S. farm goods following a summit between Presidents Donald ?Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on ?Friday.
- Greer noted the 25 million metric ton per year soybean deal agreed last October and said the U.S. also expects to "see an agreement for double-digit billion purchases of ags over the next three years per year ?coming out of this visit."
- Soybeans and other commodity prices moved higher on Monday as the news was disseminated.

CHYNA Deals?
- Looks like Boeing got an order of 200 more planes from China.
---- The problem is that was much less that was expected
-- Boeing was down on the news.
- Some murmurs about China buying more energy (oil, gas) from US
- - - There was also something said about President Xi asking about the US intentions of Taiwan

Bessent - Transitory
- Even with recent inflation news universally bad, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects price pressures to ease soon, just in time for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to take over.
-- Why are we listening to this crew? They have been wrong about everything - but say it with such confidence.
- WAIT FOR IT......
- “I firmly believe that nothing is more transient than a supply shock, and we can, we can look through that, because before the Iranian conflict began, core inflation was coming down.
- He noted that he sees substantial disinflation ahead
----- IF there is substantial disinflation that would be bad news as the economy will be slowing precipitously - could be problematic - so it is not clear what he is so excited about

Earnings
- NVDA is going to be position earnings Wednesday after the close
- So far Semiconductor companies and storage companies have been saying that the orders keep flowing in and
- Wall Street analysts project EPS of $1.78 on revenue of $79.2 billion, representing a year-over-year revenue increase of roughly 80%.

Open AI - Musk
- R0und 1- Musk looses on what looks to be a technicality
- Perhaps jurors were miffed that he skipped closing arguments and went to China instead (to be the the Trump Posse)
- Naturally he is already discussing appeal

Even more Create Financing
- Google (GOOG/GOOGL) and Blackstone (BX) are drawing significant investor attention following the announcement of TPU Cloud, a new U.S.-based joint venture designed to commercialize GOOG's Tensor Processing Unit infrastructure at greater scale.
- The partnership underscores the accelerating arms race in AI infrastructure, while also highlighting how hyperscalers are increasingly turning to alternative financing structures to fund the enormous capital requirements tied to next-generation AI compute expansion.

Fuel Shortages
- In case anyone thought otherwise - the Straight is till closed.

Fuel Running Low
- India: Severe LPG (cooking gas) shortages, rationing in many areas
- Pakistan & Bangladesh: Critical LPG and diesel shortages
- Southeast Asia (Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia): Jet fuel & diesel shortages, flight cuts
- South Korea & Taiwan: Tight jet fuel and refined product stocks
- Europe (especially UK): Jet fuel critically low, risk of flight cancellations
- Africa (South Africa, Nigeria, parts of East Africa): Jet fuel and import shortages
- CUBA - OUT

Cooking Fuel (LPG) Shortages
- India: Severe shortages, long queues, rationing
- Pakistan: Critical LPG shortage, heavy rationing
- Bangladesh: Major shortages, price spikes
- Nepal & Sri Lanka: Supply cuts, half-filled cylinders common
- Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, etc.): Tight supplies and high prices
- Africa: Sharp price increases, reduced affordability
- Europe/US: Mostly higher prices, no major physical shortages

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A torn Meniscus – that is what they say… now what?

The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?

Black in packaging – byproduct of war

Markets – – Up up and away!
– New inflation data is in…
– The Circular Economy – Great chart….
– Some inflation facts

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Warm-Up- Torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what?
- The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?
- Black in packaging - byproduct of war
- Insights into consumer confidence reports

Markets- Up up and away!
- New inflation data is in...
- The Circular Economy - Great chart....
- Some inflation facts
- From the TACO trade to the NACHO trade

The new CTP for Salesforce is open for entries!

From TACO to NACHO
- Not A Chance Hormuz Opens
- - New phrase being used in the oil pits and trading floors

Life Support
- President Trump tells reporters that ceasefire with Iran is on "massive life support"; says Iran's peace proposal was a "piece of garbage"

Going to CHYNA
- President Donald Trump has invited executives from some of the biggest U.S. companies — including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg — to join his trip to China this week, according to a White House official.
- Also expected to join Trump’s delegation for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Cargill’s Brian Sikes, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Coherent’s Jim Anderson, GE Aerospace’s H. Lawrence Culp Jr., Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon, Illumina’s Jacob Thaysen, Mastercard’s Michael Miebach, Meta Platforms executive Dina Powell McCormick, Micron Technology’s Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Visa’s Ryan McInerney, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the list has not been announced.
- Jensen Huang supposedly not invited

Inflation Report Today
- Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in April, as expected, following a 0.9% increase in March. That left total CPI up 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.3% in March.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.2% increase in March. That left core - CPI up 2.8% year-over-year versus 2.6% in March.
----Key Factors
- The food index was up 0.5% month-over-month and up 3.2% year-over-year.
- The energy index was up 3.8% month-over-month and up 17.9% year-over-year.
- The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.
- The used cars and trucks index was flat month-over-month and down 2.7% year-over-year.
- The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 4.2% year-over-year.
- The services index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year (services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% year-over-year).
- The all items index less food, shelter, and energy was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.

Consumer Confidence
- Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.
“Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.
- The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for May came in at 48.2, below the 50.5 consensus estimate and below the prior 49.8 final reading for April.
---Note: Conference board's consumer confidence reading was actually better than last month so there is a discrepancy in reports.
- Conference Board measure as highly important because it is widely followed and often tied closely to labor-market perceptions, while the Michigan survey is also closely watched for inflation-sensitive consumer attitudes.

Thwarted!
- Google’s Threat Intelligence Group said hackers are using AI models such as OpenClaw to uncover and exploit zero-day software vulnerabilities.
- GTIG said it has “high confidence” that it recorded hackers using an AI model to find and exploit a zero-day vulnerability, or a software flaw unknown to developers, creating a way to bypass two-factor authentication.
-The group said in a report that it had uncovered and likely thwarted an AI-developed attack.
- Anthropic delayed its Mythos model rollout due to cybersecurity concerns, but current models are being used by hackers.
- How are we going to stop the hackers from using powerful AI models to hack?

Circular Economy
- Great Graphic

Circular

Always Money to be made...
- US derivatives exchange CME Group Inc. and index provider Silicon Data are teaming up to create a futures market for computing power.
- The futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings, according to a statement.
- CME CEO Terry Duffy said compute is "the new oil of the 21st century" and creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent.
----- One more way to pump this as now there is ways to further inflate costs through a leveraged futures market

Private Credit Transparency?
- Faster mark-to-market plans
- Apollo Global Management Inc. has been stepping up efforts to provide liquidity and price transparency in the private-credit market, where assets don’t typically change hands.
- Last week, the firm said more than $830 billion of its credit assets will be priced daily by the end of September. "
- Others in the industry are not so happy about this.
- Most say that this is little more that lipstick on a pig

No Problem
- Congress is looking to suspend the federal gas tax for a few months
- Trump backing
- $0.18 per gallon tax in a effort to reduce gas prices that are now approx $4.40 average per gallon higher than before the war
- War not changed, Iran still stringing us along.
- Under/Over how long it will take until next Ceasefire bombings start?
- Will a sprinkle of warfare prior to China visit be in the cards as a show of strength?

AI Jobs
- Kevin Hassett says that AI isn't costing anybody their jobs rights now
- EVEN THOUGH TECH CONTINUES LAYOFFS
- Why bother even listening to these guys?
- Major deep discussion on this on TDI Podcast this week
-- WORTH THE LISTEN

Asian Markets
- Continuing to brush off any worries about oil prices, escalation or valuations that are in the stratosphere
- Korea - as we discussed this would be the case is up a staggering 78% last year and already up 81% this year
- Market cap has increased $2.7 trillion over the past year
- The massive wealth increase has been heavily concentrated. Tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for the vast majority of the gains, with individual rallies of up to 382% over the year.

Strange
- The retail trades added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for almost one-fifth of total job growth.
- In March, retailers posted their largest number of monthly job openings since 2023.
- Retailers are more confident after seeing consumers keep their wallets open in the face of an uncertain economy and higher gas prices.
- Nearly 15.5 million employees now hold retail industry jobs, the most since July 2024.
- What is strange is the UMich confidence hit another all-time low last Friday for the latest prelim reading for the month

ANALlysts
- The earnings upgrades for tech are not just incremental
- Examples:
- Seagate Tech target raised to $1000 from $750 at Evercore ISI, cites HAMR-driven multi-year HDD growth, pricing power, and strong AI/data center demand backdrop
- AMD - Goldman Sachs upgraded to Buy and raised its price target dramatically (e.g., to $450 from $240). Other firms like Bernstein (to $525), Barclays, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, and Baird also hiked targets significantly (many by $200+)
- Several other names upgrades with big ranges of price increases

UBI Starting...?
- South Korea should consider institutional ways to redistribute potential excess tax revenue generated by the AI infrastructure boom to help ease inequalities that could deepen in an AI-driven era, a top presidential policy aide said.
- President Kim proposed the principle, tentatively named a “national dividend,” underlining that gains from AI infrastructure should be understood as the product of South Korea’s collectively built industrial foundation.
- In his Facebook post on Monday, Kim explained that "the central question of the AI era is not simply about growth rates, but about how to socially stabilize excess profits."

Black ink
- Calbee to switch its brightly colored packaging to black and white because war has disrupted supply of certain raw materials used in ink
- Calbee, whose potato chip brands in particular are known for brightly colored bag designs, said 14 of its products would switch to monochrome branding by the end of May.
- Printing ink requires naphtha, an oil derivative for which Japan relies on imports from the Middle East for about 40% of its consumption.

Black Ink Printing

HantaVirus
- Tristan da Cunha, home to only around 200 people, is halfway between South Africa and South America. It is the world's remotest inhabited island, more than 2,400 km and a six-day boat ride from St Helena, its nearest inhabited neighbor.
- It usually relies on a medical team of two people for its health needs, and is normally only accessible by boat as it has no airstrip.
- A British man was dropped from the death ship was there and has the symptoms - so "out of an abundance of caution...."
- "The arrival of paratroopers, medical personnel and medical supplies from the sky has hopefully reassured the people of Tristan da Cunha," said Brigadier Ed Cartwright, Officer Commanding 16 Air Assault Brigade.
- Does this give comfort that paratroopers dropping in with hazmat suits?

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Good overall earnings season – still going strong

Economic reports show a mixed picture – but still good enough

Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam

Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines

Markets

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Warm-Up- Good overall earnings season - still going strong
- Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough
- Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam
- Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines
- EGGS - Breaking News!

Markets- Are markets riding tariff refund wave?
- Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall
- New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead
- Huge Capex and OBBBA

NEED A NEW CTP- CMG (last time was 2017)

Ship Sailing
- Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait
- But how many can they do a day like this?
- Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAE

Big Shakeup
- US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies.
- The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies.
- Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.
- FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%.
-- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics Inc. suffered double-digit declines. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., among other truckers, slid almost 7%.
--- FYI - Did you know... last year there was a total of 23.9 BILLION packages shipped in the US. 25% was delivered by Amazon, Fed and UPS delivered a third.

Off the Hook - Chump Change
- Elon Musk agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that he cheated Twitter shareholders by failing to properly disclose his growing stake in the social media company.
- An Elon Musk revocable trust would pay the penalty to end the SEC’s lawsuit, which is still subject to court approval, and Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations.
- The SEC said the deal would be the largest penalty the agency has levied against an entity or individual for allegedly failing to file a beneficial ownership report on time, but Musk’s attorney called it a “small fine”.
- Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations, according to a filing on Monday.

This could be something...
- Sonos Inc. shares climbed after reporting revenue that jumped 8% and said that it is filing for tariff refunds totaling $40 million.
- The company reported second quarter revenue of $282 million, up 8% year over year, and strong growth in international markets.
- Sonos is forecasting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $20 million and $48 million for the current quarter
- Are markets riding higher also on the tariff refunds?
---- The US government is paying back up to $166 billion in revenue it collected through sweeping global tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, with the first payments set to go out on May 11.

AND
- General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies AKA - tariffs.

OPEC?- In an unexpected announcement - The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.
- OPEC+ to raise June output quotas by 188,000 bpd
- Most members cannot meet targets due to Hormuz closure
- Quota increase removes UAE share after it left OPEC+ and OPEC (so just a make-up)
- Meanwhile, they cannot meet the iutput as no place to put the oil....
--- This all looks and sounds good but there is no substance.
---- Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day (Biggest in OPEC). USA produces 13 Million ....

Spirit Airlines
- Goodbye - shutdown Saturday night at 3PM
- The administration had floated a last-ditch bailout that would have given the federal government a controlling stake in the airline, but the proposal stalled amid resistance from key creditors, whose approval would have been required for the deal to go through.
- Meanwhile, most ticket holders will get refunds.
--- Already Jetblue and others are looking to fill the void by offering more flights from airports that Spirit serviced.
-- Takes a low cost alternative off the market and potentially will be a negative for consumers - less competition - WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT BY BLOCKING JETBLUE MERGER

JC - are you listening??
- Duolingo beats Q1 revenue estimates, driven by 21% growth in paid subscribers
- CFO Gillian Munson says investments target long-term user retention
- Duolingo aims for 100 million daily active users by 2028
- Guided a bit lower and a strategy shift toward prioritizing user experience and long-term retention over near-term monetization, as it invests in product quality and engagement to build a larger base of paying subscribers. (DUMB?)
- Share down 8%

CHIPS
- Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and beating analysts’ estimates on the explosive growth of its chip business.
- Revenue: 133.9 trillion Korean won ($89.96 billion) vs. 132.69 trillion won expected
- Operating profit: 57.2 trillion won vs. 55.28 trillion won expected
- The South Korean technology giant’s quarterly profit climbed more than 750% from a year earlier to a fresh record.
- The company also posted record revenue, up about 70% year over year.

AMD ReportsConf Call: AMD paired strong current-quarter execution with a more ambitious long-term AI and server CPU outlook. The biggest positives were the stronger EPYC trajectory, rising confidence in MI450/Helios demand, and the upgraded server CPU TAM view.
- The company now sees the server CPU TAM growing more than 35% annually to over $120 billion by 2030, up from its prior long-term view.
- The main caution points were second-half PC and Gaming demand pressure from higher memory and component costs.
- Margins 55%
- Stock up 15% AH

Apple Chips Deal?
- Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions with Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. about producing main processors for its devices in the US, as a secondary option beyond Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
- The discussions with Intel and Samsung are preliminary and have not resulted in any orders, with Apple having concerns about using non-TSMC technology.
- Apple is considering additional suppliers due to supply-chain disruptions, including recent shortages driven by the build-out of AI data centers and higher demand for Macs, with CEO Tim Cook saying the company has less flexibility in the supply chain than normal.
- Discussions - yet Intel up 14% on the news (after a 100% run in April)

Flashback - 2 weeks
- Remember when OpenAi came out with some news that they missed revenue and user growth goals?
- Took down tech for a day a couple of weeks ago....

Tech earnings
- Overall tech earnings were solid.
- Bbig takeaway is that the group (MAG7) are still spending a buttload on expansion into AI etc. Capex $$$$
- Meta was hit on theor outlook (which is why they came back and announced further layoffs)

AI Layoffs
- Recall - "AI will not take jobs"
- More announced this week - Coinbase today
- How long until the robots take over?
- Recent Announcements

AI Job Cuts

EGGS
- Consumption of eggs is associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease for those 65 years and older, according to researchers at Loma Linda University Health
- Eating one egg per day for at least five days a week reduces risk of Alzheimer’s by up to 27%, researchers found.
--- More: Eggs are known to be a source of key nutrients that support brain health. Sabaté said. Eggs provide choline, a precursor to acetylcholine and phosphatidylcholine, both of which are critical for memory and synaptic function, the study stated. Eggs also contain lutein and zeaxanthin—carotenoids that accumulate in brain tissue and are associated with improved cognitive performance and reduced oxidative stress. Eggs also contain key omega-3 fatty acids, and yolks are particularly rich in phospholipids, which constitute nearly 30% of total egg lipids and are essential for neurotransmitter receptor function.

LIV Losing Saudi Arabia
- LIV Golf will lose its financial backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund after the 2026 season, the fund announced Thursday.
- "PIF has made the decision to fund LIV Golf only for the remainder of the 2026 season," a representative for the PIF, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told ABC News on Thursday.
- "The substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy," the statement continued. "This decision has been made in light of PIF's investment priorities and current macro dynamics.
- Looking for Private Equity to step in

Cars
- The Beijing Auto Show that opened to the public this week is a showcase for how hypercompetition in China has driven new car prices in the world's largest car market to ?a fraction of the level of the next-largest market, the U.S.
- In China, there are more than 200 battery-powered models, including hybrids, for sale at less than the equivalent of $25,000, according to DCar, an information and trading platform.
- Plenty at the $10k - $12k level

Death Squads
- Friday, The White house announced plans to add firing squads, electrocution and gas asphyxiation as alternative methods of executing people convicted of the gravest federal crimes
- Only THREE federal executions in the last 50 years

Weekly Picks Ideas

Worst Stocks this Year

Worst Stocks

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All-time highs – SP500 up 9% MTD – NAS100 even more

Balanced risk – up or down from here is evenly matched

All tech right now (Example Monday Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%)

Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy

The new “Blockchain” , “SPAC”, “MEME” that is pushing stocks

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Warm-Up- HUGE MOVES - All from Tweets
- Earnings seasons - banks did goooood
-- Earnings season - carrot ahead of next week when the tech giants report (lots of bulls on this)
- A belated 420 day to all you stoners out there! Grab a gummy, come back in about 45 minutes and listen - show will be much better...
- Tariff refunds now available

Markets- All-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more
- Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched
-- All tech right now (One day Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%,) - Equal weight up 4.5% MTD, S&P up 9%
- Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy ? - Seems like Trump is bored with the Iran thing...
- The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocks

Announcing the Winner of the Closest to the Pin for NetGear...

Open /Closed
- Straits of Hormuz closed again, and again
- The brief opening allowed for a cruise ship to sneak through last week.
- Celestyal Discovery, a 1,360-guest vessel operated by Greece-based Celestyal Cruises, departed Port Rashid in Dubai, U.A.E., on April 17 at 11:36 a.m. local time, becoming the first cruise ship known to exit the strait since the crisis began earlier this year.
- No passengers aboard - aside from Captain and Crew.
- - That must have been a pretty scary passing....

OIL
- Oil hovering in the $80-$90 range for a while, now topping $100
- WTI and Brent flipped back to the normal relationship
- UAE leaving OPEC - (accounts for 12% of OPEC and 4% of global oil)
---- They need more flexibility and there seems to be a rift with Saudi Arabia and others as they have not been protected
-- China! China to begin exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline - DOES THIS MEAN PRICED IN YUAN?

Economics
- Retail sales up more than expected.
- Some is due to the high cost of gas - but stripping out gas prices - still beat expectations
- How do we square this with the UMich at all-time lows?

Consumer Confidence

Retail Sales YoY

Chips
- MRVL Shares jumped more than 7% after a report by The Information said the company is in talks with Google to build two new AI chips.
- AVGO (Broadcom) dipped as they had a deal announced prior and this seems to have watered down some of the importance.
- Fast forward a few days and then we see a story about OpenAi missing user and revenue projections. Commentary about concern that if they do not meet their numbers, may not have enough money to fund all the build-outs they promised. (Lots of names dropping on this concern)

Tim Apple
- Apple announces that Tim Cook will become executive chairman of Apple's board of directors and John Ternus, senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, will become Apple's next chief executive officer effective on September 1, 2026.
- Ternus joined Apple's product design team in 2001 and became a vice president of Hardware Engineering in 2013. He joined the executive team in 2021 as senior vice president of Hardware Engineering. Throughout his tenure at Apple, Ternus has overseen hardware engineering work on a variety of groundbreaking products across every category. He was instrumental in the introduction of multiple new product lines, including iPad® and AirPods, as well as many generations of products across iPhone®, Mac®, and Apple Watch.
- Ternus's work on Mac has helped the category become more powerful and more popular globally than at any time in its 40-year history.
Prior to Apple, Ternus worked as a mechanical engineer at Virtual Research Systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.

Mo Money - Vendor Financing
- Anthropic to secure up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of current and future generations of Amazon's Trainium chips to train and power their advanced AI models.
- Anthropic's Claude Platform available on AWS, providing their full AI developer experience in one place.
- Amazon to invest $5 bln in Anthropic today and up to an additional $20 bln in the future.

Operation Vaccu Suck
- AST SpaceMobile — Shares fell 15% after a satellite launched was placed into the wrong orbit.
- The company said in a release it expects the cost of the satellite to be recovered by an insurance policy, and it still plans to conduct orbital launches once every month to two months in 2026.
- DH Space Cleanup - this is going to be huge. Like the Spaceballs Mega Maid Scene - goes from suck to blow. Mega maid cleaning up space trash - Operation Vaccu Suck

Fed Chair Nominee
- Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told Senate hearing that Fed must stay independent and "stay in its lane"
- Opening statement (Senate) : "I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners.
- But the actual confirmation may still be stuck until the lawsuit against Powell is dropped (Which it seems is in process)

Drugs man...
- Compass Pathways — The biotechnology company surged nearly 25% after President Donald Trump signed an executive order that directs his administration to speed up reviews of psychedelic drugs.
- Compass is conducting studies of psychedelics to create drugs for treatment-resistant depression and PTSD.

HOW?
- A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so is scheduled to launch Monday.
- Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.
- It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.

SUBS Emerging
- Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s has confidentially filed for an IPO.
- - Blackstone bought a majority stake in the sandwich chain in 2024 in a deal that valued the company at roughly $8 billion.
- - - With more than 3,000 locations nationwide, Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest hoagie sandwich chain in the U.S.
-- Did some research - typical franchisee makes about $100-$200k per store.
----- Initial cost to get store going ~ $700k (3-7 year make-good on initial investment plus risks)

NEW Stock MOVER
- SPACS were HOT - now by all accounts one of the worst performance groups EVER
- AI Pivot
- - - Not sure this has legs like some of the ones in the past...
- Myseum shares more than doubled after the social media firm became the latest company to refocus efforts on artificial intelligence.
-----Shares of Myseum, which has been renamed Myseum.AI, will still trade under the MYSE ticker
- The New Jersey-based company announced Wednesday that it would change its name to Myseum.AI amid a concentration on integrating AI into its platforms like Picture Party and DatChat. Myseum will use AI agents to manage personal media in a way that adapts to users’ preferences while also maintaining privacy, the company said.
- Allbirds’ shares during the previous session after the struggling shoemaker announced a pivot to AI (Went from $3 to $24 and now $11)

Crypto News
- Charles Schwab is rolling out crypto trading, allowing clients to buy bitcoin and ether in the coming weeks.
- The move places the brokerage in direct competition with Robinhood and Coinbase, both of which tend to serve younger clients and offer commission-free trading on stocks (but still carry a fee on crypto).
- Schwab is the latest example of increasing crypto acceptance by traditional financial firms that previously were waiting on the sidelines to launch crypto offerings. (Only Ether and Bitcoin)
-- Stock was down on this news an some earnings hangover (8% from recent high)
- Robinhood and Coinbase had some selling on the news too....

OpenAi - Nastyness
- Sam Altman is seeking the dismissal of punitive damages claims in his sister's civil lawsuit accusing the OpenAI co-founder and chief executive of repeated sexual abuse more than two decades ago, an accusation he denies.
- Annie Altman accused her brother of sexually abusing and raping her between 1997 and 2006 at the family home in suburban Clayton, Missouri, starting when she was three and he was 12. She said the "last acts of sexual abuse and rape" occurred when Sam Altman was an adult. He is now 40.
- Sam Altman is countersuing his sister for defamation over her posts, including a video that said "an almost tech billionaire" molested her. (He is seeking $1)

Other Strange
- FBI Director Kash Patel filed a defamation lawsuit against the Atlantic and its reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick following the publication of an article on Friday alleging the director had a drinking problem that could pose a threat to national security.
- The magazine's story, initially titled “Kash Patel's Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job," cited more than two dozen anonymous sources expressing concern about Patel’s “conspicuous inebriation and unexplained absences” that “alarmed officials at the FBI and the Department of Justice.”
- The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks $250 million in damages.

Netflix News
- Netflix beat Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue and reported a big jump in earnings per share thanks in part to a termination fee related to its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery deal.
- The company said it expects second-quarter revenue to increase 13% and reiterated its earlier warning that content spending would be weighted in the first half of the year due to the timing of title launches.
- The company announced Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder and current chairman, would exit the board in June when his term expires.
- Netflix reiterated that it’s on track to reach $3 billion in advertising revenue in 2026, which would mark a doubling year over year, as that newer revenue line shows growth.
----Shares fell 9% after the announcement

QVC
- QVC Group Inc. has filed for bankruptcy protection in an effort to shed $5 billion in debt, as the company struggles with declining network viewership and stiff competition for its e-commerce operation.
- QVC's business model, which relies on live sales sessions and call-in ordering, gave customers a sense of a personal relationship with their favorite peddlers, but the company's best year ever was in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic, and its revenue has dropped by more than a third since then.
- The rise of short-form video platforms like TikTok, which has seen success with live shopping and has brought in more than $15 billion in US revenue in 2025, poses a significant challenge to QVC as it tries to restructure its debt and evolve its business model.
- There will still be QVC for a while - really just a debt restructure - but eventually they are toast

Spirit - 9 Lives?
- Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. has floated offering the US government an equity stake in the discount carrier to help stave off its potential liquidation, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The Air Current first reported that Spirit is seeking a bailout from the US government.
- Any proposed bailout is likely to get pushback from competitors that are also struggling with a spike in jet fuel prices during the conflict in the Middle East, some of the people said. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy plans to meet with low-cost airline chief executives this week to discuss their challenges, the people said.

Just IN
- Jetblue CEO told employees it isn’t considering filing for bankruptcy protection this year.
- Geraghty’s comments come amid higher fuel costs and speculation sparked by the New York-based carrier’s founder that the airline could go bust.
- The airline has sufficient liquidity and access to additional capital, Geraghty said in an internal memo reviewed by Bloomberg. That includes a recently secured $500 million loan backed by aircraft, with an option to raise another $250 million.

Robot 1/2 Marathon
- A humanoid robot completed a half-marathon in 50 minutes and 26 seconds, about seven minutes faster than the men’s world record.
- The second annual robot half marathon showed rapid advances in artificial intelligence, with 40% of the robots running autonomously and demonstrating improvement in handling generalized environments.
- The race, which featured over 100 teams and 300 robots, showcased China’s industrial policy priorities, including progress in artificial intelligence and robotics to mitigate the economic risks of an aging population.
- About 40% of the robots this year rant autonomously

Crazy Short Squeeze

AVISEarnings on the way...

Microsoft EPS: ~$4.00–$4.05 (+15–17% YoY) * Revenue: ~$81–82 billion (+15–16% YoY) * Focus:* Azure growth, AI monetization, and whether heavy AI spending is translating into margins.

Alphabet (Google) EPS: ~$2.60–$2.70 (~5% YoY decline, due to higher depreciation) * Revenue: ~$106–107 billion (+18–20% YoY) * Focus:* Strong Cloud growth and proof that AI investment is turning into sustainable revenue.

Meta Platforms EPS: ~$6.60–$6.70 (+20%+ YoY) * Revenue: ~$55–56 billion (+18–22% YoY) * Focus:* AI?driven advertising performance, core margins, and cost discipline outside Reality Labs.

Amazon EPS: ~$1.60–$1.65 (+10–12% YoY) * Revenue: ~$177–180 billion (+13–14% YoY) * Focus:* AWS growth, advertising margins, and clarity around large AI capital spending plans.

Apple EPS: ~$1.90–$2.00 (+15–16% YoY) * Revenue: ~$90–95 billion (mid?teens YoY growth) * Focus:* Services growth, iPhone demand stability, and capital return priorities.

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All-time highs – SP500 up 8% MTD – NAS100 even more

Balanced risk – up or down from here is evenly matched

JCD could not make it tonight – back for some more tests….

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PCE and inflation trends – single day concern

Earnings Season – Goldman, JPM

Eco Reports of historic proportion

Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

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Warm-Up- Walking back - Waffling and Extensions
--- Blockade - not really
- Market Immunity
- Jesus.ai
- Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?)

Markets- PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised
- Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM
- Historic Eco Report
- Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

CONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ
- Over $250M in tour winnings

Market Update
- Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed
- - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification
- Markets somewhat immune? Looking past?
- FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares!
----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about...

Historic!
- As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor.
- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history.

Consumer Sentiment

Fed Looking
- The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry.
- The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system.
- The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

ECO - PPI
- PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%)
Core PPI (excluding food and energy):
- Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation
- Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%)
--- Market talk:
-- - Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporary

Meanwhile...- Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran.
- The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg.
- That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice.

Blockade
- President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.
-The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump.
--- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?)
- The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command.

Goldman Earnings
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies.
- Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.
--- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card)
---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news event

Stocks: Earnings
- Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news.
--- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last.
--------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1.

Blackrock Call
- Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop.
- With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter.
- But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFs

Stocks: Monday/Tuesday
-----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%.
-----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%.
--Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levels

Stocks: Mattress Consolidation:
- Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026.
----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, Dreams

Stocks - Upgrades
- Toll Brothers, Pultegroup
— Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform.
- - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers.

Pope Leo
- WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump
-- Is the Pope involved in criminal / police issues ?

Jesus Update
- Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted)
- At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level.
-----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jesus generated by artificial intelligence.
------- Like other religious AI tools on the market, it offers words of prayer and encouragement in various languages.
----------With the occasional glitch, it remembers previous conversations and speaks through not-quite-synced lips.

Reading Retreats
- What it is: Paid reading retreats where people travel to quiet, upscale settings to read their own books—mostly in silence—alongside strangers.
- The price: Typically $1,000+ for a long weekend, often selling out months in advance.
- Why it works: People are burned out by screens and distractions and are paying for structure, silence, and protected time to focus.
- Social without pressure: It offers light community—being alone together—without forced conversation or networking.
- Cultural tailwinds: Fueled by BookTok, wellness travel, and nostalgia for slower, analog experiences, turning reading into a premium lifestyle activity.

Of Interest
- Delta Air Lines said Wednesday it will “meaningfully reduce” its capacity growth plans in the near term. AFTER BULLISH COMMENTS DAYS EARLIER
- Delta joined United and JetBlue in hiking its checked bag fees this week as jet fuel costs surge. PRICE WILL NEVER COME DOWN
- Delta said its fuel bill will be $2 billion higher this quarter because of the spike in costs.
- The carrier also reported first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. BY THE WAY>>>>>

JAYNA - AKA China
- China’s factory?gate prices rose 0.5%, the first increase in more than three years.
- Consumer prices increased 1% year over year in March, falling short of economists’ expectations.
- Gasoline prices jumped 11.1% from the prior month, even as Beijing tried to limit fuel price increases.
- Economists warn the spike in input costs could lead to “bad inflation,” putting added pressure on manufacturers that are already operating with thin margins.

Health Breakthrough
- Revolution Medicines said its pancreatic cancer drug daraxonrasib succeeded in a Phase 3 trial.
- RevMed said its drug almost doubled the typical length of survival and slashed the risk of death by 60% versus chemotherapy.
- The company said it will soon seek FDA approval using a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which grants a quicker review.
- It is a small?molecule oral oncology drug, taken as a daily pill, not chemotherapy or immunotherapy.
- Stock up nicely on the news...

China PPI
- China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years while consumer inflation moderated in March, amid a surge in oil prices as the Iran war upended global energy markets.
- The producer price index grew 0.5% from a year earlier, the first growth since September 2022, ending the longest deflationary streak in decades. For the first quarter, the PPI fell 0.6% year on year.

China PPI and CPI

Intel
- Intel’s stock had a ninth straight winning day on Monday, up 58% over that stretch.
- Shares of the semiconductor company are soaring after a series of announcements and major partnerships with Google and Elon Musk.
- CPUs are seeing a resurgence as agentic artificial intelligence continues to gain traction.

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A surprising payroll report

The quick war – not over just yet

Food inflation coming

Economics – a bright spot and surprising report last week

Space issues – Space sewage

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up- A surprising payroll report
- The quick war - not over just yet
- Food inflation coming
- Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week
- Space issues - Space sewage
- 8PM - End of Civilization?

Markets- March sucked - that is the report
- 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss
- OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory
- Market Manipulation - say it ain't so!

Oil
- Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual
- WTI ~ $116 Brent ~ $109
- Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW
- WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that...
- Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusual

BUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization?- Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations
- Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait
- YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2%
---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?)

In Process - In Theory - Framework
- OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output
- OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for May

Apple Foldable Flop
- Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays.
- Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device.
- Engineering problems they say....

Closing this Discussion
- Bored with this....But...
- OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.
- The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced.
- OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors.

The 1st Quarter Misery
- Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot.
- The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq,
- Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT.
- SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD
- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter

1st Quarter Happiness
- Energy Sector up 30%
- Materials up 10%
- Utilities up 10%
- Oil up almost 100%
- EM still positive for 2026

Latest Eco
- Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.
- The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.
- Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.
-Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.
- March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1%
- - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics
------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressures

Inflation
- Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher
- - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening
- Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026
- Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary)

No View
- Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.
- Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs
- Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers
- Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government
- Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see us

Dems probing stock trades
- Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements.
- Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples.
- Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related trades

The Final Frontier
- The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon.
- The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space.
--- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems
- NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes.
---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements.
-------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean.
-------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position.

Earnings Season
- Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle)
- The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains.
- Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022.
- But what about the outlook?????????????????

Mag 7 Earnings expectations
- Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction.
Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion.
Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth.
Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline.
Growth within mega-cap tech is becoming less broad and more concentrated in a few names.

Just In
- Remember in January with Medicare Advantage and Part D payment plans from governments were being cut?
- Insurance company stocks got smacked...
- Expectations were for a 4% or so raise and it came in flat
- ON DHUNPLUGGED - (1/27/2026) we discussed that this was a game and would come back when finalized inline with expectations to show how great the benefit is to Medicare recipients (voters)
---- We added United HealthCare (UNH) to the Weekly Stock Pick game as a rare Purple pick
- Now, final numbers announced and are projected to result in a net average increase of 2.48%, or over $13 billion in additional MA payments to plans in CY 2027. This expected increase includes consideration of the various elements that impact MA payments, such as growth rates of underlying costs, 2026 Star Ratings for 2027 quality bonus payments, and risk adjustment updates.
- UNH and other names int he sector moving up nicely on the news
- (Potential related stocks: UNH, CVS, MCK, CI, HUM, CNC, ALHC, MOH, ELV, THC, UHS, CYH, HCA, OSCR)

France Gold
- France’s central bank has sold off the last of the gold it held in the United States Federal Reserve and replaced it with higher quality bars in Paris, taking advantage of rising prices to make nearly €13 billion as it upgrades its holdings.
- Moved all holding back to France

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March is the WORST month for markets in a long time.

International equities getting killed

Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

The markets Trump Card no longer works…

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Warm-Up- Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets)
- Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105)
- For Real ? End of War?

Markets- WORST month in a long time
- International equities getting killed
- Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

Happy Passover and Happy Easter!
- Made a brisket 2 ways!

One Food item and then back to business
- New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow.....
- Reaction from crowd and recent FDA
- Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....)

Monday Morning Again
- 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great...
---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled
------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher....
- It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?)
- Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?)
- So we have until the day after Easter?

Tuesday....
- Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call -
- Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/-
- Everything turned higher - green across the board

More Crazy Records
- BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day.
- For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented.
- Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs
---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days

Hormuz Tolls/Permits
- Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait
- Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers
- Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
- Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island
- Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically

Hedge Funds and Money Managers
- Plans continue - equities coming out to cash
- Hedges applied
- H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown
--- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire
------- HOWEVER - damage has been done...

More....
- Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war.
- Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high.
- Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month.

Capitulation of More To Come?

GS Prime Book

Market Metrics

FRIENDLY REMINDER
- It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15
- IRA deposits due by 4/15

Food Deal
- Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US.
- Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place.
- The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers.
- This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution

Emerging Markets
- According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions.
- A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms.
- The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers.
- The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts.
- A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades.

Oil Pries Factor
- Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on Monday

Market Metrics

In Stupid News
- Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said.
- Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference.
- Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related.
- Woods charged with DUI, property damage and test refusal (Woods refused to submit to a urine test, an offense that carries a separate charge under Florida law. No injuries were reported to Woods or the driver of the other vehicle.)
- Breathalyzer showed no alcohol; impairment believed drug-related
- Woods released after spending eight hours in jail

Private Credit - Now Blaming ... Private Credit
- Private credit industry execs are blaming the industry for not explaining to retail about lock-ups and liquidity.
- That is dumb - clearly easy to understand that you cannot get your money unless allowed by the investment firm
- - Here is the fact - they would have never got $ from most retinal if they told them they could not get their money readily - so they glossed over it.

USPS Surcharge
- The U.S. Postal Service plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation, as the agency looks for ways to stabilize its finances.
- The 8% surcharge will begin on April 26th

Meta Glasses
- Meta announced on Tuesday that it’s launching two Ray-Ban smart glasses that are designed for prescription wearers.
- While many people already use Meta glasses with prescription lenses, the company says these new ones support nearly all prescriptions and are built to better serve people who rely on all-day eyewear.

Wearables
- Whoop, the fitness and health tracking wearable company, has closed a $575 million Series G funding round at a $10.1 billion valuation — nearly triple its last reported valuation of $3.6 billion — in a deal that brings together sovereign wealth funds, major health institutions, and some of the world’s most recognizable athletes.
- The round was led by several VC groups, soverign wealth funds as well as

THEFT
- Cisco has suffered a cyberattack after threat actors used stolen credentials from the recent Trivy supply chain attack to breach its internal development environment and steal source code belonging to the company and its customers.
- A source, who asked to remain anonymous, told BleepingComputer that Cisco's Unified Intelligence Center, CSIRT, and EOC teams contained the breach involving a malicious "GitHub Action plugin" from the recent Trivy compromise.

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JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE!

Correction in some areas and sectors.

Crude oil DROPS after “good” talks and a deal brewing with Iran.

Airports are a mess.

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Warm-Up- JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE
- Need a new CTP
- Airports are a mess
- Not Kosher - Futures moves

Markets- From the Brink....All is good?
- Correction in some areas and sectors
- US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop
- Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the above

JCD UPDATE
- AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm...
- Health update etc...Can we get the story?
- Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup!

Market Update
- Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling
- Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction
-- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2%
- Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum)

Manipulation? Say it ain't so...
- Dateline Monday morning...
- Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair
- At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.
- A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.
- Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.
- Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89%
--- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend?

A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed

Private Credit Again
- All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem.....
- Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion.
- Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters.
- Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption.
- According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers.
- Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies.
- Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management.
- He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk.
- LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds.

Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch

PRIVATE CREDIT

More OpenAI Funding
- Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday.
- The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October.
- The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?)

MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM
- OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years.
- AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month.

AI and Where we stand
- Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude?
- What is our Go-to AI bots?
- What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic
- - What comes after Agentic

Netflix OUT
- Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer.
- The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged.
- Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses.
- He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.|
- Stock rose nicely on the news

Tariff Refund Update
- You are screwed....
-- Trump administration seems hell-bent on keeping our money

Airlines
- After a rather bullish commentary from Delta last week....
- United Airlines is cutting more unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for a prolonged period of high jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, even as strong travel demand has allowed U.S. carriers to raise fares.
Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027.
- At those levels, United's annual fuel bill would rise by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it earned in its "best year ever," he said.
- Ticket prices going up!

Gas Prices
- Have you seen diesel prices?
- > $5 gallon on average across the U.S.
-- Implications beyond
--- Let's discuss the similarities to the 1973 oil embargo. (Barry switching license plates)
- 1973–1974 ? Arab oil embargo (the classic “1970s oil embargo”)
- 1979 ? Second oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution (not an embargo, but another major supply shock)

Even So - Fedex
- FedEx Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast, with adjusted earnings expected to be $19.30 to $20.10 a share for the fiscal year.
- The company's shares climbed after the announcement, with the stock advancing about 23% this year through Thursday's close.
- FedEx does not expect the war in the Middle East to have a direct material effect on its business, but the broader consequences, including higher energy prices and volatile shipping patterns, are adversely affecting the global economy.
- In fact, company raised its full year outlook.....
--- Not a material effect???

Bad People
- SuperMicro Co-Founder Charged!
- Super Micro shares sank 28% last Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. (NVDA chips)
- The U.S. Justice Department charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun with running a scheme to route U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia.
- The defendants allegedly used a Southeast Asian company as a middleman to place orders for high-end servers containing restricted Nvidia H200 and Blackwell chips. The equipment was then repackaged into unmarked boxes and diverted to China.
- To evade U.S. audits and customs inspections, the individuals allegedly created thousands of "dummy" servers and used a hair dryer to remove and reattach serial number labels from genuine servers to the fake ones.
--- Soooo, only 3 people did all of this?

Amazon Phone
- Amazon's new phone project codenamed 'Transformer'
- Focus on AI integration, Alexa features, and mobile personalization
- Here is what we know:
-------It is a smartphone, not a wearable or accessory
- It is AI-centric, with Alexa deeply integrated
- It is meant to act as a personalized, always-on gateway into Amazon’s ecosystem (shopping, Prime Video, Prime Music, services like Grubhub)
- It is being built inside Amazon’s Devices & Services group by a skunkworks team called ZeroOne, led by former Xbox architect J Allard

OpenClaw
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says OpenClaw could be the next ChatGPT as AI shifts from answering questions to taking action.
- Jensen said : Nvidia is building security around the technology with NemoClaw to enable safe and scalable adoption of AI agents.
- Project OpenClaw: “It is now the largest, most popular, the most successful open-sourced project in the history of humanity,”
- OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots.
-----Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal input from users.
- Use case: Prompt to study images of a kitchen, learn design tools, iterate ideas to learn how to design a kitchen
------- Jensen says: “Every carpenter can now be an architect. Every plumber will become an architect. We are going to elevate the capabilities of everyone”
---- What happens to the architects?

Something....
- One of the hardest hit countries in all of this mess has been South Korea
- ~70% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East - Most of that oil transits the Strait of Hormuz
- Margin calls kicked in as high margin debt with heavy retail participation
- Won weakened sharply (17-year low)
- Korea economy is dependent on global demand and stable energy prices
- South Korea often leads sell-offs as it is the purest RISK ON market in Asia
---- SOOOOO, if this thing ends quickly, there is a potential of EWY to move up again....

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Exploring Bogus oil prices

Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do…

Markets needed good news – Correlation high

Fed on hold?

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Warm-Up- Bogus Oil Prices
- Look at what Gemini and JSD can do...
- Markets needed good news - Correlation high
- Fed on hold?
- JCD LIMERICK!

Markets- Did we just correct?
- Inflation - Eco that matters
- Manipulation in Oil - Land?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCD
- AH Spoke with JCD Saturday....

Oil Prices - Bogus?
- The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100.
- Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect?
- But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation.
- Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75)

Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas?

Gas Prices

More Manipulation
- The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.
- US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?)
- Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that.
- Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008
----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline.
------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse.
---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed

Inflation and ECO
- PCE Prices stay elevated
- GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday.
- The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.
- The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Eco Table

Oil Models...Very Cool- JSD - Explain
- https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804

Department of Defense, err War, is hiring- The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit?
- This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???)
----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations.
- Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil????
--- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense)

Did you know?
- 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar
- Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally
- South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically
- Semiconductor manufacturing
- - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes).
- - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers.
-- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning.
- - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability.
- - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs.

INDIA! Running out of Gas
- Does it matter?
- India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil
- Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation
- BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India?
-- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India

Back to this...
- AI not causing job losses
- WHAT ABOUT META?
- Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending.

Drone Warfare
- New Warfare fought like games
- Ender's Game Movie
- Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet)
Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet)
Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds)
Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range)
--- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia

Gaming Industry
- DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now
- Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales
- Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games
- Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU)
- Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles
- Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase
- Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M)
- AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside
- Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Target Earnings
- Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump.
- Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected
- Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected
- Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57.
- Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape

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There is a tech pundit whose name be John,
Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.
He hit pause for some care,
But with grit (and repair),
Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.

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View Details

WAR IS COMPLETE!

Oil Screaming higher

Euro Nat Gas up 60%

An update on JCD

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Warm-Up- The CTP for Caterpillar - We have a winner!
- A tech earnings BLOWOUT
- A seminal moment with AI and Employment trends
- An update on JCD - from JSD
- A Limerick for JCD

Markets- WAR FOOTING - Buyers are still there...
- Oil Screaming higher (Sunday night wow!)
- Euro Nat Gas up 60%
- Anyone wondering why markets keep going up?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest
- UPDATE ON JCD

JSD:
- Tell us what you are doing these days...
- What was it like growing up around constant tech commentary and skepticism?
- How did that environment shape the way you look at innovation and hype?
- Where do you most disagree with your father’s views on technology today?
- Is AI making people smarter—or more dependent?
- How should younger professionals think about job security when automation is accelerating?

War and Oil
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, per a Reuters report.
- About a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025.
- Threatening to BURN any ship that attempts to go through
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical, narrow chokepoint about 90–104 miles (145–167 km) long and 21–60 miles (33–95 km) wide. At its narrowest, it is only 21 miles (33 km) across, with shipping lanes in each direction restricted to just two miles wide to accommodate massive oil tanker traffic, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption
- Meanwhile - lots of production halts - Oil screamed to $115 on Sunday night before cooler heads prevailed AND SPR talk hit the tape.
- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?

Just in...
- President Trump says "I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible"
- BUT, who would even want to take the chance of moving through that area - even if there is insurance?

Meanwhile LNG
-Daily charter rates for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin have surged to over $200,000 per day.
- Rates are roughly double levels seen less than a day earlier.
- The spike followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production as the conflict with Iran spread across the region.
- The new offer levels are at least three times higher than the most recent assessed LNG tanker rate of $61,500, according to Spark Commodities earlier Monday.
- Despite the elevated asking prices, no transactions have yet been confirmed at these levels.

You thought that was BAD?- Europe in bad shape with Nat Gas after Qatar halted production (accounts for 20% of global LNG supply)

Euro Nat Gas

Amazon Data Loss - HEY WHAT ABOUT THIS?
- Amazon Web Services said late Monday two of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline.
- “In the UAE, two of our facilities were directly struck, while in Bahrain, a drone strike in close proximity to one of our facilities caused physical impacts to our infrastructure,” AWS said. “These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage.”
- This is an interesting twist on cyber-warfare - WHAT IF?
- JSD: How does this impact AI and the world tech flow?

Why do/did markets keep climbing?
- Global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year in the fastest yearly build-up since the pandemic surge
- The increase was driven primarily by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise, with the United States, China and the euro area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the jump
- Also, margin debt up 30% in 2025 - so there is that...
- No wonder there is resilience in these markets...

Berkshire News
- Earnings from operations totaled $10.2 billion in Q4. That’s down more than 29% from $14.56 billion in the year-earlier period.
- Insurance underwriting profits dropped 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion a year prior. Insurance investment income slid nearly 25% from to $3.1 billion from $4.088 billion.
- This was the final quarter under Warren Buffett as CEO, who announced he was stepping down at the annual shareholders meeting last May.
- Full year overall earnings, meanwhile, fell to $66.97 billion from $89 billion a year prior.
- NO Buybacks, bit they still have more that $350B is cash

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Irritating
- UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.
- Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.
- Market weight - no risk for this guy on the call. Can't lose as will just perform with the benchmark - DUMB

Dell Earnings BLOWOUT (Follow up)
- Dell reported adjusted earnings of $3.89 per share, exceeding the $3.53 per share expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG.
- The company posted $33.38 billion in revenue for the quarter, topping a forecast of $31.73 billion.
- Stock up 22% on the news and followed through on Monday
- Dell cut quote time to less that a week (prices expire)
- Dell expects revenue for its artificial intelligence servers to hit $50 billion in 2027, more than double the year prior.
- Much different story from HP that was complaining about input pricing.... Obviously Dell is much smarter at pass-though management of pricing.

Jack on the Attack
- Financial technology firm Block (XYZ), run by Jack Dorsey began slashing more than 40% of its workforce (4k people) on Thursday, saying in a letter to shareholders that AI tools "have changed what it means to build and run a company."
- The AI layoffs came as the Square payment system and Cash App operator matched fourth-quarter earnings estimates, yet Block shares surged after hours.
- Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch called the layoffs "the seminal moment to date in the AI narrative and how it could transform companies as we know it going forward."
- SOOOOOO - AI is responsible for job cuts?
---- SOOOOOO - AI can replace humans and as productivity is enhanced?

Duolingo
- Duolingo forecast first-quarter and 2026 bookings below expectations on Thursday as it shifts strategy toward faster user growth, a move it said will weigh on bookings growth and profitability this year, sending the company's shares down more 23% after hours last week.
- The company plans to roll out more AI-driven speaking tools to free users, reducing friction that previously nudged learners toward paid plans
- Poster child of how AI can kill your business?
- However, earnings/financials looked pretty good and there is a strategy there that may be beneficial

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DOD – Disrupter Disrupters

China markets reopening after Lunar New Year

Mexico Cartel Wars

Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs

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Warm-Up- The CTP for Caterpillar announced
- DOD - Disrupter Disrupters
- China markets reopening after Lunar New Year
- Mexico Cartel Wars (Jalisco)

Markets- Mortgage Rates - looking good!
- Tariffs found illegal - that is not stopping anything
- Refunds requested for the illegal tariffs
- Monday's big drop and AI taking a bite out of stock prices

Tariffs
- First, who actually knows what is going on. 100% chaos
- Supreme court ruled illegal (6-3)
- 10% flat across all countries immediately added
- Wait a day and make that 15%
- FedEx seeks refund for illegal IEEPA tariffs imposed by Trump after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs exceeded authority
- Numerous lawsuits expected for IEEPA tariff refunds
- Apple has spent more than $3 billion on tariffs since President Donald Trump enacted his trade policies. What about that? (HOW TO FIGURE OUT WHO GETS THE REFUND)
--- Estimate that $175B tariffs have been collected alreay
- A group of 22 U.S. Senate Democrats on Monday introduced legislation that would require President Donald Trump's administration to fully refund within 180 days all of the revenue, with interest, collected from tariffs struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.
- The legislation would require the Customs and Border Protection agency, which collects tariffs at U.S. ports of entry, to prioritize small businesses.
- The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency said it will halt collections of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act at 12:01 a.m. EST (0501 GMT) on Tuesday

Stop The Presses
- After years of JCD's rants.......
- Apple will soon introduce MacBooks with touch screens
- Apple Inc.'s initial touch Macs will have the Dynamic Island at the center top of the display and OLED screen technology.
The new MacBook Pro models will have a refreshed, dynamic user interface that can shift between being optimized for touch or point-and-click input.

Europe Reacts
- "The current situation is not conducive to delivering 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed to by both sides" in the joint statement setting out the terms of last year's trade agreement, the Commission said. "A deal is a deal."
- All active discussions are halted on any USA/Europe trade deal

The Potential Winners
- Brazil and China may be the winners here
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has a boost in bargaining power after the US Supreme Court invalidated Donald Trump's broad emergency tariffs, a key point of leverage over China.
- The removal of tariff threats will make it harder for Trump to press Xi for larger purchases of certain products and leaves him without a key weapon to strike back if Chinese negotiators make fresh demands.
- Xi's team will likely push harder for access to advanced semiconductors, the removal of trade restrictions on Chinese companies, and reduced US support for self-ruled Taiwan, according to Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University's Center for American Studies.

NVDA Earnings
- NVIDIA drops its fiscal Q4 2026 (ended Jan 2025) results tomorrow—another make-or-break moment for the AI trade.
- The bar is sky-high after years of blowout beats, but whispers of "peak AI" and slowing growth momentum have investors on edge.
--- Consensus Expectations :
----Revenue: ~$65.6–$66.1 billion (up ~67–68% YoY from last year's ~$39B; guided $65B ±2% in prior report)
------EPS (adjusted/non-GAAP): ~$1.50–$1.53 (up ~70–72% YoY from $0.89).
--------Gross margins: Targeting ~75% non-GAAP (holding strong despite supply chain noise).
-----------Key driver: Data Center segment expected to crush ~$58–$60B, fueled by Blackwell ramp and hyperscaler spend.

Home Depot Earnings
- The home-improvement retailer gained 2.7% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.72 per share on revenues of $38.20 billion.
- That exceeded the per-share earnings of $2.54 on revenues of $38.12 billion expected by analysts polled by LSEG.

AMD News
- The semiconductor maker rose about 11% after it inked a multiyear deal with Meta to lend up to 6 gigawatts of its graphics processing units to artificial intelligence data centers.
- The cost of the deal is unclear, but the companies’ agreement includes a a performance-based warrant that could amount to up to 160 million of AMD shares, according to a statement dated Tuesday.
- Meta has committed to deploying up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of AMD's Instinct GPUs (high-end graphics processing units optimized for AI workloads) to power its massive AI data centers.
- Analysts estimate the GPU portion alone could be worth $60–$100+ billion over 5+ years

Mortgage Rates
- The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.99% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily, matching its lowest levels since 2022.
- Last year at this time the rate was 6.89%.
- A buyer putting 20% down on the median priced home, about $400,000 according to the National Association of Realtors, would have a monthly payment of $1,916 for the principal and interest. One year ago, that payment would have been $2,105, a difference of $189.

Life Insurance Record
- Manulife Financial Corp. sold a $300 million life insurance policy in Singapore, topping what Guinness World Records certified as the most valuable policy ever issued.
- The policy surpasses the previous record of $250 million, set by HSBC Life in Hong Kong in 2024. Manulife said in a statement Tuesday that the deal reflects growing demand from ultra-wealthy clients to preserve their assets.
- In Singapore over the past 12 months, Manulife has issued 25 individual policies each worth more than $50 million.

Bitcoin Rout
- Gemini said it was axing as much as a quarter of its staff and exiting the UK, European Union and Australia entirely.
- This week, it parted with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer, all in a single day.
- Its stock has fallen more than 80% from a post-listing high last year, collapsing its market value from a peak of almost $4 billion to under $700 million.

Over the Greenland
- USA sending a "hospital ship" over
- Trump's post on the ship came hours after Denmark's Joint Arctic Command said it had evacuated a crew member who required urgent medical treatment from a U.S. submarine in Greenlandic waters, seven nautical miles outside of Greenland's capital, Nuuk.
- Greenland said thanks but no thanks

So Long!
- U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive.
- In the last six months, U.S.-domiciled investors have pulled some $75 billion from U.S. equity products, with $52 billion flowing out since the start of 2026 alone, the most in the first eight weeks of the year since at least 2010

AI Disruption - DOD (Disruption of Disrupters)
- CrowdStrike -9.8% and other cybersecurity names under heavy pressure again as AI disruption fears build following Anthropic’s Claude Code release
- - Cybersecurity stocks are under broad pressure today, extending recent weakness following Friday's launch of Claude Code Security by Anthropic. Claude Code Security scans codebases for vulnerabilities and suggests software patches for human review, fueling a narrative that AI platforms may be moving more quickly into parts of the security workflow than investors had previously expected.
For cybersecurity, that raises concern around the forward demand outlook and competitive positioning, particularly in areas tied to application security, cloud security, identity workflows, and security operations automation, where AI-native tools could start to narrow perceived differentiation.
- The move suggests investors are still sorting through the implications for product overlap, pricing power, and competitive positioning as AI capabilities evolve quickly.
- IBM shares dropping toward lows of the session; attributed to news that Claude can automate cobol modernization

COBOL(Common Business-Oriented Language) is a high-level, English-like programming language created in 1959 for business, finance, and administrative data processing. It is renowned for its verbosity, readability, and reliability, processing massive amounts of transactions on mainframe systems,, notes NetCom Learning and IBM. Despite being decades old, it remains critical in banking, insurance, and government sectors.
- It is estimated that 70-80% of the world's business transactions are processed by COBOL

Grok's Prediction about Future of OpenAi/ChatGPT

| Scenario | Likelihood (My Estimate) | Key Factors | Outcome for OpenAI/ChatGPT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Thriving Leader | Medium (40%) | Sustained breakthroughs, partnerships (e.g., Microsoft), regulatory wins | OpenAI as AI giant; ChatGPT as ecosystem hub for agents/robots | | Evolved Survivor | High (50%) | Adaptation to agents/hardware; mergers | Exists but rebranded; ChatGPT integrated into daily life tools | | Decline/Acquisition | Low (10%) | Overcompetition, funding collapse | Absorbed or legacy; ChatGPT commoditized or obsolete |

Quick check on Europe Shares
- European company earnings growth is picking up this reporting season against a tentatively improving economic backdrop, but wary investors are demanding more than solid results to justify sky-high valuations.
- Companies representing 57% of Europe's market capitalization have reported so far, achieving average earnings growth of 3.9% in the fourth quarter, ahead of estimates for a final result of a contraction of 1.1%
--- That is a big differential.... +3.9 vs -1.1

Iran Talks
- News over the weekend that Iran will look to discuss a variety of items and potentially get a deal.... energy, mining and aircraft
- Best guess: Iran will string us along like Russia is doing and we will say we have some kind of bogus deal.
--- There is some talk of US "going in" as we are building military presence. Supposedly there are some saying it could be a multi-week incursion.
- What is the plan - Regime change?

What is this?
- A divided Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Americans can’t sue the U.S. Postal Service, even when employees deliberately refuse to deliver mail.
- By a 5-4 vote, the justices ruled against a Texas landlord, Lebene Konan, who alleges her mail was intentionally withheld for two years. Konan, who is Black, claims racial prejudice played a role in postal employees’ actions.
- Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for a majority of five conservative justices, said the federal law that generally shields the Postal Service from lawsuits over missing, lost and undelivered mail includes “the intentional nondelivery of mail.”
- So can ballots just be thrown in garbage for mail-ins for one party that will throw out another party's?

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Self Created Valuation Boosts

Apple Announces new Podcast push

AI – A breakdown

Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers

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Warm-Up- A NEW CTP just announced
- China releasing new AI models
- AI - A breakdown - we are on overload
- Big Employment news....

Markets- Self Created Valuation Boosts
- Apple Announces new Podcast push
- Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers

Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show.....

No Agenda...

Olympics - Anything to discuss?

MONEY FOR ALL
- The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS.
- The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night.
- As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only.
- This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation..

Emplyment
- 4.3%
- "Better" than expected payrolls number
- A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods.
- Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example:

By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000.
By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000.
Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000).
The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches.
In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year.

AI Updates
- While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist’s tools on software and financial services, China’s tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation.
- Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models
- However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge.
- Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks.
- Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google’s Gemini 3 Pro on some tests.
- Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools.

Grok Update
- Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors.
- U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia.
- Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025)

AI Market Share

ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period.

AI Market Share

InfoGrapic and AI Understanding
- Have we gone through this?
- At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems.
- Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule.
- Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer.
Contrast with training (the "learning" phase):
------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples.
------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly.
- gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help.
"Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine.

AI Infographic

Last AI Item
- A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse.
- The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply.
- The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector.

Here is something:
- Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years
- Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago.
- Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership."
- Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution."
- "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people’s lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more.
- Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....?

Apple Podcast Update
- Big news!
- Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring.
- The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research.
- The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting.
-“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “
- By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we’re putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.”

M&A
- Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips.
- Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company’s common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
- The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement.

Inflation - This helps
- PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.

Miran - Moving
- Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed.
- He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board

No Biggie????
- There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room
- JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events.
- At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients’ heads during operations.
- Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient’s nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient’s skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured.

Cuba
- The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel
- Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems
- No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel
- This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out.

Dalio Warning
- Legendary investor Ray Dalio said on Tuesday the world was “on the brink” of a capital war.
- He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds were already preparing for measures like foreign exchange and capital controls.
- "When money is weaponized using measures like trade embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as leverage."
- “Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said Tuesday. “We’re seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink — that doesn’t mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it’s a logical concern.”
- Could this be why gold and siver are being hoarded (physical assets over digital currency?
- Is China's edict to banks to diversify away from US Treasuries a sign?

Self Boosted Valuation
- Waymo is aiming to raise about $16 billion in a financing-round that would value it at nearly $110 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Alphabet would provide about $13 billion to the autonomous driving firm while the rest would come from investors including Sequoia Capital, DST Global and Dragoneer Investment Group, the report added.
- Soooooo - Waymo is a unit of Alphabet.... Alphabet providing 80% of the funding that boosts valuations..... Hmmmmmmmm

Warner Brothers
- Warner Bros Discovery Inc is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance Corp after receiving its amended offer.
- The Warner Bros board is discussing whether Paramount could offer a path to a superior deal, which may ignite a second bidding war with Netflix Inc.
- Paramount submitted amended terms that addressed several concerns, including covering a fee owed to Netflix and offering to backstop a Warner Bros debt refinancing.

Economics Coming Up
- Short Week - plenty of Reports
- Wednesday - Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes
- Thursday - Philly Fed, Initial Claims
- Friday: PCE, Personal Income and Spending, GDP for Q4 (3.6%)
----- New Home Sales, UMich Feb Final

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Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)

Hang on – Wild ride here

Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!

Shakeup in Dietville

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Interactive Brokers

Warm-Up- Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my)
- Need a stock for CTP
- Hang on - Wild ride here
- Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- Shakeup in Dietville

Markets- Massive moved during the week -
- Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding
- DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time
- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending!
- CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026

Superbowl and Superbowl ads
- Game review
- Any ad stick out?
- $10M per ad this year
- Half Time with Bad Bunny?
- Anthropic busting on OpenAi

Last Week!
- Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names.
- HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap

AI Ripping Through
- Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements
- First it was the software companies
- Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked
- Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space

Earnings Season Update
- Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results.
- Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line)
- Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better)
- Nothing great, like Goldilocks

Earnings Highlights
- Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks).
- AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages).
- Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions.

Recent Tech CAPEX announcements
- Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions.
- Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services.
- Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase).
- Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025).
------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025.

Market Reaction from all of this....
- Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood
- Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure.
- Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B)
- BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc.

Other Earnings of Interest
- Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines.
- The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million.
- Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
- Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs

While we are on the subject
- Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever!
- Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs

Hats off to WalMart
- Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever|
- Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience.

Google Bond Offering
- Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years
- Would you buy that?
- The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK.
- The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s

Fat Profits in Dietville- Really interesting sequence of events happening...
- Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month
- Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill
- Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch
- Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises

THEN..
- Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday)
- FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law.

AND....
- Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soars.
- The pharmaceutical giant anticipates its 2026 revenue will come in between $80 billion and $83 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG.
- Meanwhile, NOVO had a really bad outlook that took the shares down 13% after the report.

Japan Markets Soar
- Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory.
- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped past 57,000 for the first time before paring gains to close 3.9% higher at 56,363.94, while the Topix also notched a record high, closing at 3,783.94, up 2.3%.

Employment Report?
- Government shutdown is forcing them to postpone again (Which is dumb)
- Number due this Wednesday
- Maybe because of this:U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009.
- At the same time, companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009, which is when Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking such data.
- Also, job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, to their lowest since September 2020. - Available jobs are down by more than 900,000 just since October.
- NO! Ai and advancements in tech have noting to do with this! NO NO NO

Inflation - This helps
- PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results.

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WORST DAY EVER for SILVER

Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop

New Fed Chair named

Pausing on space

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Warm-Up- WORST DAY EVER for SILVER
- Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop
- New Fed Chair named
- Pausing on space

Markets- Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter"
- Deep dive into January economic results
- USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead
- ELON - PT Barnum move

Cold Snap
- On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923.
- Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets
- Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure.
- They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip.
- The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event.

Right on Schedule
- Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed?
- Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high
- Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike.

THIS!
- Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company’s proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.”
- “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.”

Then
Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out.
- What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment?
- Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment
- GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK

Fungus - -Interesting
- Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity.
- While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors.

January Economic ReviewEmployment
— Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower.
— Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago.
— Long-term unemployment didn’t change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%.
— Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year.
— Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year’s levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply.

FOMC / Interest Rates
— The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
— Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target.
— Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait.
- Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike.
- The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing.
- Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place.
- Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us.
- Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase.
- Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair)

GDP & Federal Budget
— Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs.
— Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined.
— The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year.

Inflation & Consumer Spending
— Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November.
— Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year.
— The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing.
— Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024.

Housing
— Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low.
— Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago.
— New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year.
— New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms.

Manufacturing
— Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year.
— Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped.
— Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries.

Imports & Exports— Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025.
— The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased.
— For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger.

Consumer Confidence
— Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December.
— Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk.

Earnings— Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong.
— 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%.
— Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages.
— The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth.
— Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services.
— The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories.
— The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns.
— FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009.

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S3XY No More
- Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus).
- Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are?
- Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't?
- Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing.

But...
- Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much.
- With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly.
- Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla
- Tesla shares dropped after earnings

FED CHAIR PICK
- Drumroll: Kevin Warsh
- Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability
- Deficit reducer?
- More hawkish than market expected?
- Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning

And then...
- Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.
-It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record.
- It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash.
- The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination.
- However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10%
- GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record
- Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago
- ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK
-- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely?

Fed Statement and Rates
- Fed out with statement - no change on rates
- Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong
- Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term

Apple Earnings
- Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended.
- Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers’ iPhone demands.
- The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period.
- Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion.
- “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we’re seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said.
- Stock up slightly - no great moves....

Blue Origin
- Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies.
- The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.
- The pause in tourist flights grounds the company’s reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness.
- Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)

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Silver and Gold – Still Going.

Big week for earnings.

Fed decision on Wednesday.

Nat Gas price exploding higher.

US Dollar drops hard over past few days.

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Warm-Up- What we learned from Davos
- President Miyagi - tariffs on, tariffs off
- January: stocks are trying to finish with gains - Small-caps flying
- S&P 500: All-time highs going into earnings

Markets- Silver and Gold - Still Going
- Big week for earnings
- Fed decision on Wednesday
- Nat Gas price exploding
- US Dollar drops hard over past few days

Can't Keep Track Anymore
-Trump has announced he is raising tariffs on South Korean imports to 25% after accusing Seoul of "not living up" to a trade deal reached last year.
- In a post on social media, Trump said he would increase levies on South Korea from 15% across a range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals and "all other Reciprocal TARIFFS".
- South Korea is planning on voting on the "agreement" with the US in February
- KOSPI hits all-time high after being down 1% on the news
- S. Korea President re-affirms their commitments

Davos - 2026 - What we learned
- Not much
- Same bifurcated view of the world
- Trump backed off the Greenland threats - Framework of a "deal" / "plan"
- So, no tariffs
- (Going to get a boy who cried wolf ....)

Gold and Silver
- Off to the races
- Silver was up again in a big way Monday. Fell back down to earth (up 5% from up 15% earlier in the day
- Hovering around $110 - that is impressive - parabolic move
- GOLD! - Proving itself as a USD hedge and safety trade (Bitcoin in the dust)
- Gold above $5,000 per ounce
- - Plenty of reports that central banks are buying up|
- USD weakness

Economy - Still Strong
- The US economy expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than initially reported, supported by stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories.
- Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased at a revised 4.4% annualized rate, the fastest in two years, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
- Consumer spending advanced at a 3.5% annualized pace last quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of outlays for services in three years, while spending on goods also accelerated from the previous quarter.

Amazon
- Trimming.... 30,000 jobs is plan
- First half of that was in October and now trhery are laying off the remainder
- CEO Jassey says that it is not financial of AI issues
---- Again - why so important to state that and make that a focal point?
- Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce
- Company still has 1.5 million employees

Comeback?
- Spirit Airlines is in talks with investment firm Castlelake for a potential takeover of the discount airline, CNBC has learned.
- Remember, all started when Jetblue deal was blocked
- Frontier tried
- Spirit tried a few times to get head above water - nothing worked

Booz Cancelled
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled department contracts with the consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, whose employee leaked President Donald Trump’s tax records to The New York Times.
- The department noted that between 2018 and 2020, Booz Allen employee Charles Edward Littlejohn “stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.”
- Booz Allen Hamilton’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on the heels of the Treasury Department’s announcement.
- Why does Booz have tax records in the first place?
- Stock down 50% since end of 2024

Private Credit
- BlackRock TCP Capital shares lower by 13% after it disclosed Friday night that net asset value declined approximately 19.0%; other private credit stocks falling in sympathy
- The Company's net asset value per share as of December 31, 2025 to be between approximately $7.05 and $7.09, an anticipated decline of approximately 19.0% during the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared to a net asset value per share of $8.71 as of September 30, 2025.
- This decline is primarily driven by issuer-specific developments during the quarter.
- The Company's net investment income per share to be between approximately $0.24 and $0.26 for the three months ended December 31, 2025.
- Decliners: TCPC -13.40% OWL -3.07% ARES -3.30% KKR -2.08% BAM -0.41% CG -0.33%

Zoom Communications- Valuation of Anthropic stake
- The news is driving shares higher as analysts suggest ZM's $51 mln stake could now be worth between $2-$4 bln based on Anthropic's rumored $350 bln valuation, effectively acting as a "hidden gem" on its balance sheet.
- From a fundamental perspective, the company's performance has also significantly improved, evidenced by its Q3 beat-and-raise report in late November where revenue rose 4.4% yr/yr to $1.23 bln.
- This stronger financial performance is being driven by robust growth in the Enterprise segment, the rapid adoption of AI Companion features, and the scaling of adjacent growth businesses like Zoom Contact Center and Workvivo.
- Consequently, the combination of high-margin operational rigor -- highlighted by a 41.2% non-GAAP operating margin -- and the massive unrealized gains from its AI investments has shifted investor sentiment firmly back toward growth.

UNH and Health Stocks
- DOWN 20% today
- The administration's proposal (via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, or CMS) for Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates to rise by only 0.09% in 2027. This was far below Wall Street expectations of 4-6% (or higher), following a more generous ~5% increase for 2026.
- The near-flat rate aims to improve payment accuracy, curb overbilling practices, and protect taxpayers, according to CMS statements, but it sparked widespread concerns about squeezed insurer margins, potential benefit cuts for seniors, reduced plan offerings, or market exits.
- UnitedHealth has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage (roughly 30% of national enrollment), making it particularly vulnerable. The proposal, announced late Monday (January 26), led to a broader sell-off in health insurers:
- - Humana (HUM) plunged over 20-21%.
- - CVS Health (CVS) and Elevance Health (ELV) each dropped around 13-14%.

Tech Earnings

Microsoft (MSFT)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations: Earnings per share (EPS): about $3.86 and Revenue: about $80 billion
- Growth: high teens year over year revenue growth
- Investors are focused on Azure and broader cloud growth, particularly how much of that growth is coming from AI related demand. Microsoft has built a reputation for consistent execution, which also means expectations are high. The critical issues will be cloud growth sustainability, margin stability, and how aggressively management plans to keep spending on AI infrastructure.

Meta Platforms (META)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations: EPS: about $8.15–$8.20 and Revenue: about $58–$59 billion
- Growth: roughly 20–21% year over year revenue growth
- Advertising remains the core driver, with AI driven ad targeting continuing to improve returns for advertisers. While topline growth expectations remain strong, investors are closely watching expense growth. The biggest question is whether rising AI and infrastructure spending can be managed without eroding margins or spooking investors, as Meta works through the next phase of its AI strategy.

Tesla (TSLA)
Reports: Wednesday, January 28 (After Market Close)
- Wall Street Expectations: EPS (non GAAP): about $0.40–$0.45 and Revenue: about $24.5–$25 billion
- Trend: earnings expected to be sharply lower than a year ago
- Tesla enters earnings with the weakest expectations among the major tech names this week. Vehicle deliveries declined year over year, and automotive margins remain under pressure. While the energy and services segments continue to grow, they are not yet large enough to offset slowing EV demand.
- Investors will be far more focused on forward guidance than on the quarter itself—particularly updates on Full Self Driving, robotaxis, and the broader AI roadmap.

Apple (AAPL)
Reports: Thursday, January 29 (After Market Close)
Wall Street Expectations - EPS: about $2.65–$2.67 and Revenue: about $138 billion
Growth: approximately 11–12% year over year revenue growth
- This is Apple’s most important quarter of the year. Expectations call for record revenue driven by the iPhone 17 cycle and continued Services growth. The focus will be on margins, China demand, and forward guidance—particularly how higher costs (memory prices and tariffs) may impact profitability.
Apple typically beats expectations, but the stock reaction will hinge on what management says about growth beyond this quarter.

| Company | Ticker | Report Date | Est. EPS | Key Focus Area | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Microsoft | MSFT | Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) | $3.92 | Azure AI revenue growth & CapEx spending | | Meta Platforms | META | Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) | $8.17 | Ad monetization of AI & 2026 CapEx guidance | | Tesla | TSLA | Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) | $0.45 | Full Self-Driving (FSD) & Robotaxi updates | | Apple | AAPL | Thu, Jan 29 (AMC) | Varies | iPhone 17 demand & Apple Intelligence rollout | | ServiceNow | NOW | Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) | $0.88 | Enterprise AI software adoption rates | | IBM | IBM | Wed, Jan 28 (AMC) | $4.28 | Hybrid cloud and watsonx performance |

*AMC = After Market Close; EPS = Earnings Per Share (Consensus Estimates)

Boeing
- The company’s airplane deliveries last year were the highest since 2018, helping drive revenue. Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024 and topping analysts’ expectations. Cash flow of $400 million was roughly double what Wall Street was expecting.
- Boeing brought in $23.9 billion in the last three months of 2025, a 57% increase over the same period in 2024.
The airplane manufacturer delivered 600 airplanes last year, up from 348 a year earlier.

Another MoonShot
- U.S. natural gas prices surged over 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since late 2022.
- It comes as Winter Storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power and forces mass flight cancellations.
- The National Weather Service has forecast wind chills as low as -50 degrees Fahrenheit (-45.56 degrees Celsius) across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this week.
-Up 68% YTD
- Nat gas is used in a whole lot of things - electrical grid 43% is fueled by Nat Gas

Government - Not Again!
- Seems like Dems are threatening a shutdown again
- A partial U.S. government shutdown is set to begin on Friday, January 30, 2026.
- The Senate is expected to vote on a funding package to avert this shutdown, with delays from a winter storm pushing initial votes to at least January 27, 2026
- The issue is being exacerbated with the ICE / Minnesota issues

This is precious
- Ex-finance minister Noda currently co-heads largest opposition party
- He says that Japan unlikely to get international consent for intervention
- Yen, bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode, he says
- Government must vow to restore fiscal discipline to end yen fall, Noda says
- Japan must create environment allowing for steady BOJ rate hikes, he says
- THIS shows us all that the whole thing with these guys/gals is all political.
- NEVER EVER if he was in the role would he say anything like this.

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Rough Week – does not phase bulls!

Bitcoin – Bottoming?

Let’s take a look at Walmart and Target again

Homeowners! Mortgage Reform?

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Warm-Up- Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm)
- Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk
- Recession News
- Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again
- Homeowners! Mortgage Reform?

Markets- Rough Week - does not phase bulls!
- Bitcoin - Bottoming?
- NVDA - China Bound?
- NASDAQ Weighting

Inflation - Still Up There
- They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?)
- All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish.

Meanwhile
- President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.
- oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers.

Quantum Stocks

GOOD NEWS!
- NO Recession risk!
- Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs
- Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown
- Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can
- Banking and insurance, Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting)

Rigging it
- NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg

Weird News
- Buried in the NVDA earnings report
- Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI.
- Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI.
- Soooooo - is this all hot air????

More NVDA
- Here we go. Another reversal
- President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.
- The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
------ Read that again - money versus national security
- Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies.
Chip in question: H200
- Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us)

EVEN MORE
- NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" |
- The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing.....

HPQ Earnings
- HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts
- Stock down 6%

Amazon
- The Spend keeps going...
- Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities.
- Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday.

Google/Berkshire
- Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple
- Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and...
- Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology.
- Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year.
- Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know?

NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable?
- Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting
- SP500 top 10 stocks = 38%
- This is not a diversified approach any longer
- Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data

Something They Don't Want You To Know
- “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023
- With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter.
- “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters.

Novo Nordisk - Pummeled
- Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal.
- The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease.
-While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%.
- Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left...

Bitcoin
- Live by the sword....
- iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ
- Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse
- Selling started - coincidentally with the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance

Remember DOGE
- DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026
- Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration
- Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked
- DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work.

Walmart
- Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes.
- The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%.
- It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62.
- Stock went vertical ----
- Much different story than Target
- WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37%

Beef Prices - Not Going Down
- Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal.
- The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.|
- Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment.

Japan
- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures.
- The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts.
- Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent
- Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus

Larry Summers?
- Epstein Files
- IS there any There , There?

Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage?
- Such a bad idea - and these boneheads think it is smart
- 30-Year Mortgage
Monthly Payment: $1,610.46
Total Payment: $579,767.35
Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35

50-Year Mortgage
Monthly Payment: $1,362.42
Total Payment: $817,449.78
Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78

Thanksgiving Costs 2025
National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey)

2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person)
2024: $58.08 for the same meal
Change: Down 5% year-over-year

This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022.

Key Drivers

Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024.
Sides are mixed:

Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%).
Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%).

Regional Differences

South: $50.01 (most affordable)
West: $61.75 (most expensive)

Classic Meal for 10 ($55???????)

16-pound turkey (frozen, whole)
Stuffing mix (14 ounces)
Sweet potatoes (3 pounds)
Rolls (12-count package)
Peas (1 pound)
Cranberries (12 ounces)
Carrots and celery (for a veggie tray)
Pumpkin pie mix (30 ounces)
Pie shells (two, 9-inch)
Whipping cream (half pint)
Milk (1 gallon)

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Tariff juggling – just moving them around – no studies, no rationale

Big Moves – One of the worst Novembers since 2008

The Big Short – End of a Era?

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Warm-Up- Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday
- The Big Short - End of a Era?
- What is happening to Bitcoin?
- THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed

Markets- Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale
- Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008
- Hindenburg Omen
- Fed Losing Cred

WHY?
- If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries....
- President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg
- So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we?
--- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit

More Tariffs
- Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028
- Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports
- For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat.
- Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028.
- What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS

Fed Update
- Markets no longer view December as a sure bet
- Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish
- Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95%
- AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool)

More Horseshit!
- Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office.
- Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago
- That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings.
- Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on!
- Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time....

StampFlation
- The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week.
- The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select.

BIG
- Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management.
- In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year.
- "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter.
- Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR
- We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much..
- He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th...

Softbank
- We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings
- Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL
- New position in INTC
- Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months.
- Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week
- Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades.

THC Blues ???
- A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container.
== Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year.
- 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually)
- Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry.
- Concern that the blackmarket will grow again
- However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations)

UK Tax Scrap
- British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax.
- The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn.
- Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea.

How Does This Work?
- House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico

Some Eco ...??
- Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET
- What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released

Hindenburg Omen
- There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades.
- According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better.

Pied Piper - Losing Followers
- OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so
- Biggest beneficiary - Oracle
- Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip)
- Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month.

Disney Earnings
- Hmmmmm......
- Shares fall 8% as revenue misses
- Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube
- The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth.
- Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A 3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000

Starbucks
- Can it get any worse for this company?
- Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain’s Red Cup Day sales event.
- NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores
- The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks.

Buffett - Berkshire
- Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer.
- They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder
- Sold homebuilder DR Horton
- Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb
---- DPZ chart looks terrible

Over to China
- Economy not getting any better
- Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period.
- Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September.
- Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month.
- The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country.

Electric Prices
- We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running
- Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- Prices are going up in some of the areas that have big data warehouses are climbing faster
-Prices, for example, surged by 13% in Virginia, 16% in Illinois and 12% in Ohio.
- Did some research - Global data center electricity use is estimated at ~200–250 TWh per year
- Global Bitcoin network consumes ~120–150 TWh annually - Remember when the climate activists were all over that?

Crypto and Risk
- Bitcoin and the other names in the crypto universe are getting smoked
- Over the weekend, Bitcoin trading at $96K
- YTD trasing about flat
--- Is this a precursor to a risk off market?
- The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq indexes are all experiencing their worst start to November since 2008.
- Since 1980, November has been the best-performing month for the S&P 500, with an average gain of 2.2%.

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NEW CTP for IBIT

Under/Over – Looks like the OVER

Presidential PARDONS and A King’s EVICTION

All Excited – Making headway on the Deficit !

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Warm-Up- NEW CTP for IBIT
- Under/Over - Looks like the OVER
- Presidential PARDONS and A King's EVICTION
- All Excited - Making headway on the Deficit !

Markets- DJIA hits new ATH - after big moves last week - Buyers stepped in (again)
- NASDAQ - lagging as AI trade is questioned
- THEREFORE - what is happening is a simple rotation again - ALL IN!

Just back from a wedding in NJ - Did some Apple picking, hot cider and donuts!

Pardon Me...
- President Donald Trump has pardoned a long list of his political allies for their support or involvement in plans to overturn the 2020 presidential election, according to the Department of Justice’s Pardon Attorney, Ed Martin.
- Several others (20+) were pardoned as well including some that plead guilty.

Over the Pond
- King Charles III on Thursday stripped his disgraced brother Prince Andrew of his remaining titles and evicted him from his royal residence after weeks of pressure to act over his relationship with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, Buckingham Palace said.
- After the king’s rare move, which follows years of shameful scandals, he will be known as Andrew Mountbatten Windsor and not as a prince, and he will have to vacate his Royal Lodge mansion near Windsor Castle.

Debt
- The U.S. government’s gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion Wednesday, a record number that highlights the accelerating accumulation of debt on America’s balance sheet.
- It’s also the fastest accumulation of a trillion dollars in debt outside of the COVID-19 pandemic — the U.S. hit $37 trillion in gross national debt in August this year.
- “During his first eight months in office, President Trump has reduced the deficit by $350 billion compared to the same period in 2024 by cutting spending and boosting revenue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, adding that the administration would pursue robust economic growth, lower inflation, tariff revenue, lower borrowing costs and cuts to waste, fraud and abuse.
- Petersen Foundation: “Along with increasing debt, you get higher interest costs, which are now the fastest growing part of the budget,” Peterson added. “We spent $4 trillion on interest over the last decade, but will spend $14 trillion in the next ten years. Interest costs crowd out important public and private investments in our future, harming the economy for every American.”
- Debt Growing by $69,000 per second over the the past year...

Stock New - BIG

Softbank
- Softbank sells entire stake in NVDA - $5.83 Billion
- To soften the blow, they said that it as because they are using it to redeploy further into AI - OpenAi to be specific
- Also sold part of T-Moblie and using margin loan against ARM to fund the $22.5 BILLION investment in OpenAI
- “This should not be seen, in our view, as a cautious or negative stance on Nvidia, but rather in the context of SoftBank needing at least $30.5bn of capital for investments in the Oct-Dec quarter, including $22.5bn for OpenAI and $6.5bn for Ampere,” Rolf Bulk, equity research analyst at New Street Research, told CNBC.
- IMPORTANT SO MARKETS DO NOT GET SPOOKED: ?[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said.

Coreweave Earnings
- The provider of infrastructure for artificial intelligence companies, reported better-than-expected third-quarter revenue on Monday, but the company delivered disappointing full-year guidance.
- The company reported a net loss of $110 million, narrowing from about $360 million in the same quarter last year.
- Problem at one of their data centers - basically they are not up and running at potential
- Stock dropped 15% (Stock ran up to $185 in June and now at $88

MasterCard and Visa
- Visa and Mastercard announced a revised $38 billion settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, hoping to satisfy a judge who rejected a smaller accord as inadequate.
- Monday's settlement would end 20 years of litigation in which businesses accused Visa, Mastercard and banks of conspiring to violate U.S. antitrust laws, including through the card networks' collection of "swipe fees."
- The settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage point for five years.
-- Retail Merchants Associations still not happy about this...
- Merchants would also get more options to impose surcharges when people pay by card, including an "unfettered" ability to charge up to 3%, according to a court filing.
- STILL they charge 20%-35% (The highest variable rate advertised for a specific card is 36% on the First PREMIER® Bank Mastercard Credit Card.)

A Head Scratcher
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said Thursday that the artificial intelligence startup is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030.
- The company has inked more than $1.4 trillion of infrastructure deals in recent months to try and build out the data centers it says are needed to meet growing demand.
- Question: It is almost impossible for companies with a long track record, stable business and known clientele to project out one year as things change so fast in the economy. How can a recent startup with new technology that is unknown the use in the future project out 5 years?

Tesla
- The vote is in and Elon got his pay package!
- Update: Elon Musk is the richest person in the world as of November 2025, with a net worth that has approached and briefly crossed $500 billion

Economy
K Shape
- U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights.
- The current level is closing on on the worst in 20 years
- Democrats are really in the dumps, while Republicans are upbeat (91 vs 33) - High earners happy - lower earnings very unhappy.
- For the economy? Consider that the top 20% of households by income drive 40% of consumer spending

Employment
- Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago.
- It was the highest level for any October since 2003 and has been the worst year for layoffs since 2009.
- Challenger reports the highest level of layoffs coming from the technology sector amid a time of restructuring due to AI integration. Companies in the sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September.
- In total, companies have announced 1.1 million cuts this year, a 65% increase from a year ago and the highest level since the Covid pandemic year of 2020.

Rate Cuts?
- Miran says half-point cut ‘appropriate’ for December, but Fed should at least reduce by a quarter point (What a tool!)
- “If you’re making data for what, if you’re making policy for what the data are now, you are backward looking, because it will take 12 to 18 months for that to hit the economy. So you need to make policy now based on where you think the economy is going to be a year to a year and a half from now.”
- SOOOOOO - he thinks the economy is slowing over the next 12-18 months? Doesn't that conflict with how great Kevin Hasset

Even so.....Can't be all bad...
- Levi's will sell its new line of $300 jeans in more stores next year as it looks to boost growth by tapping into strong demand for premium denim, Chief Financial and Growth Officer Harmit Singh told Reuters.
- Launched in Asia earlier this year, and in around two dozen stores in Europe and the U.S. since September, the Blue Tab range of higher quality jeans and shirts is part of an ongoing push to broaden the Levi's brand and attract more women.
- In Europe, Blue Tab jeans sell for between about 250 and 350 euros ($290-410), compared with between 70 and 130 euros for its Red Tab line. Blue Tab jackets sell for around 700 euros.

EV Hangover
- Ford Motor is reportedly considering permanently ending production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck amid mounting losses and more challenging market conditions for EVs.
- Ford's President, when asked last month by media about Lightning production potentially ending, said the company’s main priority was gas-powered models.
- F-150 Lightning sales this year through October are roughly level compared with a year earlier at only 24,577 units. Since going on sale in 2022 in the U.S., Ford has sold less than 100,000 F-150 Lightning models.

SAD NEWS
- A 208-year-old publication that farmers, gardeners and others keen to predict the weather have relied on for guidance will be publishing for the final time.
- Farmers' Almanac said Thursday that its 2026 edition will be its last, citing the growing financial challenges of producing and distributing the book in today's “chaotic media environment.” Access to the online version will cease next month.
- The Maine-based publication, not to be confused with the even older Old Farmer’s Almanac in neighboring New Hampshire, was first printed in 1818. For centuries, it's used a secret formula based on sunspots, planetary positions and lunar cycles to generate long-range weather forecasts.

Bad News For Stock Insiders?
- Nancy Pelosi said she will not seek reelection to Congress.
- Pelosi, 85, has served in the House for nearly four decades, presiding over the passage of major legislation and serving as a leading opposition figure against President Donald Trump.

Thoughts?
- A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday cleared the way for Florida to enforce a law restricting real estate and land purchases by Chinese citizens, rejecting claims it violates federal law and discriminates against Asians.
- The law prohibits individuals who are "domiciled" in China and are not U.S. citizens or green card holders from purchasing real estate or land in Florida. It allows non-tourist visa holders and asylum recipients to purchase a single residential property as big as two acres that is at least five miles (8 km) from any military installation.
- Republican Governor Ron DeSantis said when he signed the law in 2023 that it would help protect Americans from the influence of the Chinese Communist Party.

More China
- Apple has confirmed that it removed the popular gay dating apps Blued and Finka from its Chinese iOS store in compliance with an order from the Cyberspace Administration of China.
- “Based on an order from the Cyberspace Administration of China, we have removed these two apps from the China storefront only,” the company said, though they clarified that the apps had already been unavailable in other countries.
- Grindr, a popular gay dating app from the U.S., was removed from the iOS store in 2022, days after the Cyberspace Administration of China began a crackdown on content it considered illegal and inappropriate.

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Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks….

Say goodbye to the penny!

November heading for a potential fall.

Splits – Are they back?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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NEED A NEW CTP - How About a Crypto ETF? (IBIT)

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Warm-Up- Supreme Court Ruling on tariffs within weeks....
- Say goodbye to the penny
- November heading for a potential fall
- Prediction - When will US Government Reopen
- New Term - AI Washing

Markets- OpenAI - even more deals
- Palatir Earnings
- Serepta FLOP
-AMAZON BLOWOUT
- Splits - Are they back?

Election Day - Updates?

The SAME Stories are making their way around
- Seasonally good time for equities
- Don't fight the Fed
- Earnings trend
- Buybacks again

Under/Over on When US Government Opens
- November 10th - Under/Over?

November Outlook
- On the heels of a good October...
- Question: How much more is in the tank for blowouts? Earnings season is about over and what are other catalysts - Aside from Santa?
- More NVDA excitement? More OpenAi deals???
- So much good news is priced in it is hard to imagine HUGE upside

AI Washing
- AI washing is a deceptive marketing tactic where companies exaggerate or falsely claim to use artificial intelligence in their products to appear more innovative and advanced.
- It is also used when layoffs occur to say that there is less need for employees due to advances in technology.
- Corporate giants Amazon, UPS and Target each announced layoffs in recent weeks totaling more than 60,000 jobs cut this year.

Amazon
- Great earnings - stock up HUGE to ATH ater the report
- Amazon beats by $0.38, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line
- Reports Q3 (Sep) GAAP earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $180.17 bln vs the $177.91 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Co reports Q3 operating income, excluding items, of $21.7 bln vs prior guidance of $15.5-20.5 bln.
- North America segment sales increased 11.2% yr/yr to $106.27 bln.
- International segment sales increased 14.0% yr/yr (+10% CC) to $40.90 bln.
- AWS segment sales rose 20% yr/yr (+20% CC) to $33.01 bln.
- Advertising Services rose 24% yr/yr (+22% CC) to $17.70 bln.
- Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $206-213 bln vs. $208.41 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q4 operating income of $21-26 bln.

OpenAi and Amazon
- OpenAI has signed a $38 billion deal with Amazon Web Services, and will immediately start accessing Nvidia’s graphics processing units.
- This is one of OpenAI’s biggest moves away from Microsoft, which was the company’s exclusive cloud provider until earlier this year.
- The partnership gives OpenAI the flexibility to scale infrastructure through 2026 and beyond.
- Under the agreement announced on Monday, OpenAI will immediately begin running workloads on AWS infrastructure, tapping hundreds of thousands of Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in the U.S., with plans to expand capacity in the coming years.
- Amazon up another 5%

Palantir Earnings
- Palantir Technologies prelim Q3 $0.21 vs $0.17 FactSet Consensus; revs $1.18 bln vs $1.09 bln FactSet Consensus
- Palantir Technologies sees Q4 revs $1.327-1.331 bln vs $1.18 bln FactSet Consensus
- Stock up slightly - been on a rager lately.... ATH
- Stock down 8% on Tuesday - most of the good news is priced in?

AMD Earnings
- Advanced Micro Devices beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus (250.05 -9.60)
- Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.20 per share, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.17; revenues rose 35.6% year/year to $9.25 bln vs the $8.76 bln FactSet Consensus.
- On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 54%, operating income was $2.2 billion, net income was $2 billion and diluted earnings per share was $1.20. Our third quarter results did not include any revenue from shipments of AMD Instinct MI308 GPU products to China.
- Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.3-9.9 bln vs. $9.21 bln FactSet Consensus. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 54.5%.
- Down 3% after hours

Netflix
- Announces a 10-1 split
- Commentators are all a flutter about this - so good for the small investor
- ARE THEY THAT STUPID?
- Example NFLX shares at $1,100 - does that preclude someone that has $250 from buying??????
==== NO! Partial share ownership is available with most brokerages...

Supreme Court dealing with Tariffs
- Lower courts ruled that Trumps use of tariffs are not lawful.
- Latest tirade against Canada is not a good showing for the "national security" use of tariffs
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the Supreme Court to uphold the IEEPA-based tariffs.
----> But if it strikes down the tariffs, Bessent said in an interview, the administration will simply switch to other tariff authorities, including Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows broad 15% tariffs for 150 days to calm trade imbalances.
--- So they are not really national emergencies, just a Presidential authority that they will try to fit into a standing power?
----LET'S JUST SAY WHAT IT IS..... PUNITIVE MEASURES FOR FUN

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

China "Deal"
- After a careful review - China won that match by a mile
- China buying soybeans, says they will try to stop Fentanyl (U.S. reduced tariffs on that) and less restrictive rare earth exports out of China....
- So, what do we have ? Maybe a benefit to the farmers, nothing gained otherwise...
- They checkmated us with the Rare Earths...
- Not a deal - nope... Please do not call it a deal....
- EXACTLY THE SAME AS TRUMP 1.0 on this one...

Headcounts
- Several companies are talking about layoffs.
- Amazon 10k - 30k
- META (small)
- Now the discussion is turning to WHY
- AI or consumers?
- Big story-line is the excess buildup post COVID and fear by companies that employees were scarce - that is changing.
- On the other hand - Microsoft is hiring

Singularity
- Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman says only biological beings are capable of consciousness, and that developers and researchers should stop pursuing projects that suggest otherwise.
- “I don’t think that is work that people should be doing,” Suleyman told CNBC in an interview this week at the AfroTech Conference in Houston, where he was among the keynote speakers. “If you ask the wrong question, you end up with the wrong answer. I think it’s totally the wrong question.”
- Thoughts???

Say goodbye to the Penny
- US no longer makes pennies
- Retailers are worried about profits if they cannot provide, they may have to round up to a nickle when they make change for a transaction
- In fact there is some panic about this it appears....
- Why can't a place just round to the nickle on the sale?????? Seems simple (they pass on other costs to consumers all the time)

NEED HELP!
- Watching TV and a Bombardier commercial for one of their jets comes on..
- Fastest private airplane in the world
-Global 8000
- "See a dawn that never ends" (If I am flying into the dawn EAST, as they show in the commercial, on a very fast plane - Dawn is quick and over.)
- See a sunset that never ends... isn't that a more truthful and better line?

Morgan Stanley AND Goldman CEOS
- Tag Team - Talking about how a correction could be coming
- Can they create corrections with their comments?
- All about perception, outlook and confidence......

Serepta - Nice Bounce... Then:
- Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT) plunged 40% after its late-stage Duchenne trial failure and weak sales overshadowed a slight earnings beat.
-Q3 2025 revenue fell 15% year-over-year, driven by lower ELEVIDYS sales and ongoing restructuring efforts, despite steady demand for its PMO portfolio.

Shein
- Child like Sex Dolls on their site
- After France's consumer watchdog found sex dolls resembling children for sale on Shein's platform, finance minister Roland Lescure threatened on Monday to block Shein's access to the French market if it ever sold such dolls again.
- France is working on fast fashion law that may crimp Shein sales - so this is a way for France to go after competition with its fashion firms.
- Shein is supposed to be opening outlets in several malls and stores in France

New Financial Hub - Y'All Street?
- Financial services firms have increased their presence in the state of Texas in recent years as they diversify their strategic footprint beyond the traditional financial hub of New York City's Wall Street.
- Meanwhile: Greg Abbott Threatens ‘100% Tariff’ On New Yorkers Moving to Texas

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View Details

Exhaustion signals

TESLA – a rabbit out of a hat!

Fed meeting in focus

S&P earnings week – its a big one

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Warm-Up- Don't fight the tape
- Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems
- Seeing lots of overheated signs.....
- BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about

Markets- Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday
- Biggest week for earnings (S&P)
- ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500
- Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise!
- Emerging markets - On FIRE!

Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes.

The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas.

Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project

Fed Meeting
- Stock and All time highs
- GOLD, SILVER rocking
- Crypto doing just fine
- GDP good
- Employment good
- Housing market improving
- Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED
- Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%)
- FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES

REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT

CPI
- The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected.
- Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown.

Quick Meme Update
- BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week...
- We should have shorted for the game like we talked about
- It was supposed to be the next Apple!

Qualcomm News!
- They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA
- Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed)
- Qualcomm’s data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm’s smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs.
- Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years)

Why Not Intel?
- The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters.
- The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on.

NVDA Spending Spree
- Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia
- Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker.
- Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news.
- Nokia will issue more than 166 million new shares and will use the proceeds to fund its plans for AI and other general corporate purposes.
- The two companies also struck a strategic partnership to work together to develop next-generation 6G cellular technology. Nokia said that it would adapt its 5G and 6G software to run on Nvidia’s chips, and will collaborate on networking technology for AI.

Government Shut Down
- Flight Delays
- NO EBT starting November
- High pressure tactics that will be used in the future
- Pulling some benefits from Blue States
- Need to have new plan to deal with these politicians - are they getting paid? YES

Farmer Scott
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he has “felt pain” from China refusing to buy American soybeans during a trade conflict with President Donald Trump.
- “I’m actually a soybean farmer,” he told ABC News’ “This Week.”
- SURPRISE! Part of the Framework deal with China is that China will again start buying soybeans

Cathy Wood
- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood on Tuesday pushed back on fears of an artificial intelligence bubble, while flagging the possibility of a “reality check” on AI valuations.
- Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on the sidelines of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, or FII, in Riyadh, Wood said that as interest rates begin to rise, “there will be a shudder” in markets.
- “We are going to reach a moment in the next year where the conversation will shift from lower interest rates to rising rates,” the closely watched investor said.

NO WAY JOSE
- Not good.... this needs to be explained and reversed...
- The mystery donor whose $130 million contribution is meant to pay U.S. military troops during the government shutdown is Timothy Mellon, an heir to a renowned Gilded Age banking family, The New York Times reported Saturday.
- But Mellon’s donation works out to only about $100 per service member. It costs nearly $6.4 billion to pay U.S. troops every two weeks.
- And using his money might run afoul of federal law, according to the Times, which cited two people familiar with the matter in identifying the billionaire railroad magnate as the donor.
- This invites all sorts of potential problems and conflict of interest. Plus, can we just say where we want our tax dollars to go to?

How about those Profit Margins?
- Given concerns in the market about tariffs and higher costs, what is the S&P 500 reporting for a net profit margin for Q3?
- The blended net profit margin for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 12.8%, which is equal to the previous quarter’s net profit margin, but above the year-ago net profit margin and above the 5-year average.
- In fact, this quarter marks the 6th consecutive quarter that the S&P 500 is reporting a net profit margin above the 5-year average (12.1%).
- --- BUT that 5-yr average includes some hard times...
- At the sector level, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year increase in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Financials (19.9% vs. 18.0%) and Utilities (16.7% vs. 14.8%) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors are reporting a year-over-year decrease in their net profit margins in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, led by the Communication Services (13.8 vs. 14.8%), Real Estate (34.3% vs. 35.2%), and Health Care (7.3% vs. 8.2%) sectors.

Is this the new normal?
- The Dutch government has invoked control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, under its Goods Availability Act.
- Following the announcement by The Hague, Wingtech’s Shanghai-listed shares plunged 10% to hit its max daily limit.
- The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned semiconductor maker based in the Netherlands, in an extraordinary move to ensure a sufficient supply of its chips remains available in Europe amid rising global trade tensions.
- Nexperia, a subsidiary of China’s Wingtech Technology, specializes in the high-volume production of chips used in automotive, consumer electronics and other industries, making it vital for maintaining Europe’s technological supply chains.

OpenAI
- Following up on the vendor financing and circular financing
- OpenAI has close to a TRILLION DOLLARS of commitments over the next 10 years.
- Signed a deal with AMD last we spoke and spiked that stock 40% (OpenAI could option for 10% ownership through warrants)
- As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chip deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on.

MORE....
- Questions starting to get raised about the possibility of OpenAI actually being able to fund these deals.
- Example - Oracle repricing - DOWN 18%

Tesla
- Bad earnings - no problem! Let's announce more Robotaxi potential and now ROBOTS
- Horrible earnings, with a really ugly margin compression from expected (500bps)
- Just wait a day or so and the stock rebounds from $417 to $457 on a PR blitz to show that there is still the chance that the dream of Autonomous driving will happen

AND- Tesla chair Robyn Denholm pleaded with shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk's unprecedented compensation package, one that could cost the company $1 trillion, with the threat of Musk leaving the company.
- In a letter sent to shareholders Monday morning, which follows a prior letter sent last week, Denholm warned the company stands to lose Musk's leadership if shareholders do not approve the plan.

Amazon
- Amazon is planning to cut as many as 30,000 corporate jobs beginning on Tuesday, as the company works to pare expenses and compensate for overhiring during the peak demand of the pandemic, according to three people familiar with the matter.
- The figure represents a small percentage of Amazon’s 1.55 million total employees, but nearly 10% of the company’s roughly 350,000 corporate employees. This would represent the largest job cut at Amazon since around 27,000 jobs were eliminated starting in late 2022.

Target
- Company said on Thursday it’s cutting 1,800 corporate jobs as the retailer tries to get back to growth after four years of roughly stagnant sales.
- It marks the first major round of layoffs in a decade for the Minneapolis-based retailer. It announced the layoffs in a memo sent by Target’s incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke to employees at its headquarters.
- The eliminated roles are a combination of about 1,000 employee layoffs and about 800 positions that will no longer be filled, a company spokesman said. Together, they represent an approximately 8% cut to Target’s corporate workforce, according to the memo.

Peer Pressure
- Major deal or frameworks announced this week
- Emerging markets getting a boast from the idea that favorable terms in these deal are going to be announced
- The problem (or maybe design) is that there is very little detail and the accountability is not there
- Supposedly soybeans are in focus again as there is ZERO USA soybeans being bought by China right now.
---Zero exports in September 2025: U.S. soybean exports to China reached zero in September 2025, the first time this has happened in seven years.
- PLUS - just look at what happened to Canada - say something bad and you get a tariff slap...(Canada took down ad - but President Trump thought they should be punished - they get Tariff Detention)

Barron's out with a caution note
- Following the weekend release of the FRAMEWORK - rare earth stocks dropping (Bessent says that the Rare Earths issue will be pushed back a year - paused withholding by China?)
- MP, REMX, TMC, CRML, TMQ, USAR, UAMY

Power Hungry
- Google announced a new partnership with NextEra Energy to restart Iowa’s only nuclear power plant, a move aimed at meeting the growing energy demands of artificial intelligence while strengthening America’s clean-energy grid.
- Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that power consumption will hit record highs over the next two years — climbing to 4,191 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 and 4,305 billion kWh in 2026, up from 4,097 billion kWh in 2024, driven largely by AI data centers.
- The agreement between Google and NextEra includes a 25-year power purchase deal for the Duane Arnold plant and a framework to explore additional nuclear projects nationwide. NextEra will assume full ownership after acquiring stakes from CIPCO and Corn Belt Power Cooperative.

China
- China’s industrial profits soared 21.6% in September from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, as Beijing’s campaign to curb price wars helped ease pressure on manufacturers despite persistent trade tensions with the U.S.
- That sharp jump, extending a strong rebound that began in August when the industrial profits jumped 20.4% year-on-year, marked the biggest gain since November 2023.
- For the first nine months of the year, profits at major industrial firms grew 3.2%, the official data showed, accelerating from a 0.9% rise in the January to August period.

Brazen
- Brazen theft - Louvre
-- So Simple and effective, but they still got caught
- Police have arrested suspects in connection with the theft of France’s crown jewels from the Louvre museum, just as one attempted to leave the country, the Paris prosecutor’s office said.

GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- OpenAI has completed its restructuring into a nonprofit with a controlling equity stake in its for-profit business.
- The nonprofit holds an equity stake currently worth about $130 billion in its for-profit arm.
- Microsoft, which has backed the company since 2019, will hold roughly 27% in OpenAI Group PBC.

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View Details

A new crisis is brewing – banking sector again

Markets is sideways mode

The scary tariffs and a walk back

Apple News……..

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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We’re dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon...

Warm-Up- A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again
- Markets is sideways mode
- The scary tariffs and a walk back
- Apple News........
- Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC

Markets- Yields dropping
- Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress)
- Fed stops tightening - why is that?
- TACO trade is back
- Buig Tech earnings on the way

"Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up"

US Government Shutdown - Day 19?

Bitcoin
- Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back
- Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks
- Trump tariff comments spooked speculators
-- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday

GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!
- Taking a walloping last couple of days...
-- Was really overbought
-- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days)

Gold, Silver BOOM
- Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad
- Major holiday in India
--- First day of Diwali in India
- Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes:
-- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth).
-- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day.
-- Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment.

New Phrase
- Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases....
- "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals
- Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs
- OBNOXIOUS!

Super TACO
- What was that?
- Bad lunch or something?
- 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon
- - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb)
- Trump Walks back on Sunday

Warnings
- David Solomon (GS CEO)
- Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years.
- Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You’re going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that’s deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won’t feel good.”

More Warnings
- Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...)
- First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company’s use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing.
- Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp.
-- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing. Seems as though there is some concern that poor underwriting and sloppy loan issuance (and oversight) is something again.
------- This is much more difficult to paper over or to rescue like the Bond valuation crisis a couple of years ago.

ZERO Dated Options
- Daily turnarounds, especially on Fridays
- New studies showing that the zero date options push toward the end of the day is a big player
- On a index with 35-40% of top 10 holdings in makeup - easier to push those names and then collect on the options..
- Friday 10/17 is a good example of hos that occurs..
--- Decliners outpaced advancers all day - Small cap down - mega cap up
----- As day progressed, squeezing continued - (partially due to Trumps comments that everything is going well with China - aka 180 degrees from the Friday before)

Listener Question:
- What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord?
- The phrase “Mar-a-Lago Accord” was coined by US money market wizard and previous Credit Suisse Strategist Zoltan Poszar back in June 2024 on an idea that the US could force countries to accept a weaker dollar and lower interest rates on their US Treasury investments in order to still be protected by the US security ...

GM Earnings
- GM stock rose more than 15% in trading Tuesday. The stock, which closed Monday at $58 per share, had its best day since 2020 and its second best day on the market since its 2009 emergence from bankruptcy.
- Here’s how the company performed in the third quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:
-- Earnings per share: $2.80 adjusted vs. $2.31 expected
-- Revenue: $48.59 billion vs. $45.27 billion expected
-- Adjusted EBIT: $3.38 billion vs. $2.72 billion expected
- GM also reduced the expected impact of tariffs this year to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, down from $4 billion to $5 billion. The automaker expects to offset about 35% of that impact.

Meanwhile - Ferrari
- Ferrari posted their worst trading day ever on last Thursday after the luxury carmaker updated its full-year and 2030 guidance and scaled back its electrification ambitions.
- Analysts were disappointed by the new guidance, saying it fell short of expectations.
- The Italy-based sports car manufacturer said at its Capital Markets Day, or CMD, event that it expected net revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros ($8.2 billion) this year, up from a previous forecast of more than 7 billion euros.
- Net revenue is expected to be around 9 billion euros in 2030, and the company is targeting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of at least 3.6 billion euros by 2030.

Quantum Stocks
- JP Morgan announced that it will invest $10B in 27 specific industries, including Quantum computing - that sent them flying again
- RGTI, IONQ, QBTS - to the moon!

Apple News
- Apple and Formula 1 today announced a five-year partnership that will bring all F1 races exclusively to Apple TV in the United States beginning next year.
- The partnership builds on Apple’s deepening relationship with Formula 1 following the global success of Apple Original Films’ adrenaline-fueled blockbuster F1 The Movie, the highest-grossing sports movie of all time.
- United by a commitment to innovation and fan experience, the partnership sets the stage for Formula 1’s continued growth in the U.S.

More Apple News
- iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, research firm Counterpoint said on Monday.
- The newer models outsold the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries, Counterpoint said in a report.
- Sales of the base model iPhone 17 nearly doubled in China compared to the iPhone 16 during the same period, it added, with sales of the model rising 31% across the two markets.
- Stock hits ATH on Monday and helps DJIA move up BIG

Pharma Follw Up
- Several pharmaceutical companies have said they will sell drugs direct to patients in the U.S. and offered discounts following President Donald Trump's calls to bring down drug prices and cut out "middlemen" like pharmacies, insurers and pharmacy benefit managers.
- This is another blow to pharmacies

Robbery!
- Thieves in balaclavas broke into Paris' Louvre museum on Sunday, using a crane to smash an upstairs window, then stealing priceless objects from an area that houses the French crown jewels before escaping on motorbikes, officials said.
The robbery raises awkward questions about security at the museum, where officials had already sounded the alarm about lack of investment at a world-famous site
- They said it was likely the robbery was either commissioned by a collector, in which case there was a chance of recovering the pieces in a good state, or undertaken by thieves interested only in the valuable jewels and precious metals.

Blame Game
- Companies across the U.S. and Europe have been cutting staff, citing the impact of artificial intelligence.
There may be more to the layoffs than meets the eye as firms are "scapegoating" the technology to take the fall for challenging business moves such as layoffs, according to one professor.
Some companies that flourished during the pandemic "significantly overhired" and the recent layoffs might just be a "market clearance," the professor said.

Boooooze
- Exports of U.S. spirits fell 9% in the second quarter, according to a report by the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States published on Monday, which warned that trade tensions were hitting demand in key markets.
- The decline marked a sharp reversal from 2024's strong export performance, with steep drops across major markets including the European Union, Canada, Britain and Japan, which together represent 70% of total exports by value
- Canada saw the most dramatic fall, with U.S. spirits exports plummeting 85% to below $10 million in the second quarter. The majority of Canadian provinces continue to ban American spirits from their shelves in response to U.S. tariffs targeting -
- Exports to the EU, the industry's largest market, dropped 12% to $290.3 million, while shipments to Britain fell 29% to $26.9 million and those to Japan decreased 23% to $21.4 million, with DISCUS also citing trade tensions.

OpenAI
- Following up on the vendor financing and circular financing
- OpenAI has close to a TRILLION DOLLARS of commitenets over the next 10 years.
- Signed a deal with AMD last we spoke and spiked that stock 40% (OpenAI could option for 10% ownership through warrants)
- As part of the arrangement, AMD issued a warrant that gives OpenAI the ability to buy up to 160 million shares of AMD for 1 cent each over the course of the chip deal. The warrant vests in tranches based on milestones that the two companies have agreed on.

MORE....
- Questions starting to get raised about the possibility of OpenAI actually being able to fund these deals.
- Example - Oracle reprising - DOWN 18%

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HYSTERICAL! Some of the best host stories from over the years.

Recipes and food talk….

How about that Egg book?

Shotguns and Booze anyone ? Clay Pigeons…

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ROTFL – Some of the best host stories from over the years.

Shoes off at airports anyone?

Vinegar book?

How about economics based on train count?

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Crypto pulling back

October – one of the toughest months

Day traders – some good news

Intel’s new growth model

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Warm-Up- Crypto pulling back
- REMINDER - NEW CTP for Lithium Americas (LAC) stock!
- October - one of the toughest months
- Day traders - some good news

Markets- New Tariffs announced - Drugs, trucks, kitchen cabinets
- Intel's new growth model
- Quantum stocks rallying
- Powell setting the stage

RYDER CUP - What a finish!

Friday Jobs Report
Labor Dept - may - or may not release jobs report Friday
- Fearing that a government shutdown will be problematic
- Convenient

US to take stake in Lithium Americas - Up 29%
- Where are we coming up with all of this $

Red October?
-9 of the 20 largest single-day drops in the Dow Jones occurred in October.
- 1907 Bank Panic
- 1929 Crash (Black Tuesday)
- 1987 Crash (Black Monday, -22.6% in one day)
- 2008 Financial Crisis (S&P 500 fell ~17% in October alone)
- Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of ~0.91% in October
-Over the past 20 years, October has been relatively favorable, with average gains between 0.8% and 1.5% for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.
-October is 35% more volatile than the average month.

Saudi Arabia for the Win!
- Electronic Arts rallied on Friday following a report by the Wall Street Journal that the video game company is nearing a roughly $50 billion deal to go private.
- The deal would likely be the largest leverage buyout of all time, according to the Journal.
- Investors including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Silver Lake could announce the deal as soon as next week, the report said
- Also in n the TikTok Deal - what is up with that?
- Oh - Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is another participating investor, according to a source familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.

On the Other hand
- Shares of CarMax fell to an all-time low on Thursday, as investors disposed of positions after disappointing second-quarter earnings results.
- This followed surprisingly disappointing financial and operating results, with retail used unit sales declining 5.4 percent, and comparable same-store sales decreasing 6.3 percent.
- Net income declined by 28.16 percent to $95.4 million from $132.8 million in the same period last year, while net sales and operating revenues dropped by 6 percent to $6.59 billion from $7.013 billion year-on-year.
- Carvana next or reason why KMX doing poorly?

Ponzi Accusations
- The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is accusing the men who bought bankrupt chains RadioShack, Modell’s Sporting Goods, and Pier 1 Imports of running a Ponzi scheme that duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars.
- A complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida on Tuesday, alleges the co-founders of Miami-based Retail Ecommerce Ventures, Alex Mehr and Tai Lopez, together with the company's Chief Operating Officer Maya Burkenroad, raised approximately $112 million combined from hundreds of U.S. investors by selling investments in eight companies they created and controlled under Retail Ecommerce Ventures.
- Between April 2020 through Nov. 2022, they raised money by selling two types of investments. They sold unsecured notes that promised returns of up to 25% a year, and ownership shares that offered monthly payouts as high as 2%, according to the complaint.|
- To pay interest, dividends and maturing note payments, Mehr and Lopez resorted to using a combination of loans from outside lenders, merchant cash advances, money raised from new and existing investors, and transfers from other portfolio companies to cover obligations, the SEC said.

Pfizer Playing Ball
- President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer to voluntarily sell its medications at lower prices in the U.S., as his administration pushes to link the nation’s drug prices to cheaper prices paid abroad.
- Pfizer has agreed to take measures to lower U.S. drug prices, including selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations on a website the administration is calling TrumpRx.gov.
- As part of the deal, Pfizer has also agreed to a three-year grace period during which the company’s products won’t face pharmaceutical-specific tariffs – as long as the drugmaker further invests in U.S. manufacturing.

TikTok
- ByteDance to retain ownership of TikTok's U.S. business operations, sources say
- Joint venture to handle U.S. user data and algorithm, sources say
- ByteDance to control revenue-generating operations like e-commerce and advertising, sources say
- Sources said the new U.S. TikTok would be divided into two companies. The joint venture that was announced by Trump will serve as the backend operations to the U.S. company and handle U.S. user data and algorithm. ByteDance is expected to be the single largest minority shareholder in the joint venture, sources said.|
- The new U.S. company will be valued at around $14 billion, Vice President JD Vance said. (Which everyone is asking how that number was arrived at and why so low)

Holy Economics
- GDP now expected to be between 3.8% and 3.9% in coming quarter (annualized)
- Home sales soar 20% to 3-year high
-- Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July, according to the U.S. Census.
- Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024.
---That’s despite mortgage rates that are higher than they are today.
---The median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500, in increase of 1.9% year over year.
- Initial claims number last week came in much lower than anticipated at 218k

Powell Hinting
- Stocks overvalued?
-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell furthered valuation concerns , noting “equity prices are fairly highly valued.”
- Powell also signaled that the rate-cutting path wasn’t clear and that it was a “challenging situation.”
- Stocks sold off a bit during the week - but came buyers stepped in again
- He also said last week: weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a decision he backed to lower the central bank’s key interest rate last week. (setting up potential cuts and ignoring inflation pressures)

Government Shutdown..
- Didn't they have open ended budget and debt ceiling?
- Does it really matter anymore?
- Bill being pushed to end shutdowns (therefore Congress will never have to present a budget - formalized)

Quantum
- Last week...
- IonQ on Tuesday said it achieved a “significant quantum internet milestone,” leading shares 3% higher in afternoon trading and lifting quantum stocks in sympathy during the session.
- Shares of Rigetti Computing gained 10%, D-Wave Quantum added 6% and Quantum Computing rose 4%.
YTD: RGTI up 100%, IONQ up 65%, QUBT up 25%, QBTS up 218%

Intel
- Now Intel is asking Apple to make an investment...
- So the new growth model for Intel is begging?

Going Private
- Electronic Arts said it will be acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion.
- Shareholders of the maker of Battlefield, The Sims and the Madden NFL will receive $210 per share.
- Jared Kushner, who is President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is CEO of Affinity.

Interesting Development
- New tariffs - rate cut cover - moving ahead with more threats
- Late last week: Trump cites national security for new round of tariffs
- 100% duty on branded drugs waived if ground broken on US factory
- Despite trade deal, Britain's drugs face full 100% US tariffs
- His new duties included a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, as well as a 30% levy on upholstered furniture, raising costs for a core consumer sector.
- Trump said the 100% tariff on branded drugs would only apply to producers that had not already broken ground on U.S. manufacturing plants.
- Top import of drugs ,Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, India, Belgium
- About 60% of the $25.5 billion in U.S. furniture imports in 2024 came from Vietnam and China, according to Furniture Today, a trade publication. (Wayfair?)
- Trump said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs would benefit companies such as Paccar-owned (PCAR.O), opens new tab Peterbilt and Kenworth and Freightliner.

Pattern Day Trader
- This was a dumb rule
- Regulators are moving to dismantle one of the most controversial barriers for active retail traders — the $25,000 minimum equity rule for pattern day trading.
- The $25,000 minimum equity rule mandates that traders must maintain a minimum account balance of $25,000 in a margin account to execute four or more day trades within a five-business-day period. The rule was put in place in 2001.
- FINRA is replacing this mandate with an intraday margin rule that applies the existing maintenance margin rules to intraday exposure. In other words, one’s intraday buying power will be based on the margin requirements for the positions they take on during the day, not a fixed equity minimum.
- Good for Robinhood, Schwab and other brokers

Docusign
- DocuSign shares lower by 11% after OpenAI introduced DocuGPT? last night, an agent that converts contracts into structured, searchable data
- BUT, this seems to be more f a searchable AI to help with Document management - not Document signing.

Firefly (FLY)
- Firefly Aerospace crashes to post-IPO lows after disclosing that the booster stage of its Alpha rocket was destroyed during a testing mishap
- Seen as a a significant setback because the booster is a critical component for achieving successful launches, and the failure raises questions about the reliability and readiness of Firefly's (FLY) launch technology.
- Commentary: The setback could delay the company's commercial launch schedule, erode customer confidence, and provide competitors with an advantage in the rapidly growing small-rocket market.
- Investors are reacting negatively as the incident highlights both execution risks and the uncertainty around FLY's near-term growth prospects

Years in the Making
- Charlie Javice, founder of a startup acquired by JPMorgan Chase in 2021 for $175 million, was sentenced to seven years in prison Monday for defrauding the bank by overstating how many customers the fintech firm had.
- A jury found Javice and her chief growth officer Olivier Amar guilty on three counts of fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit fraud.
- Javice said she felt profound remorse for her actions and asked for forgiveness from JPMorgan, employees of the startup, shareholders and investors.
- Company was FRANK - million of customers related to mortgage were frauds - they beefed up numbers and scammed JP Morgan

Beyond Bad
- On September 29, 2025, Beyond Meat announced the commencement of an Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation aimed at eliminating over $800 million of debt.
- The initiative involves exchanging existing convertible notes for new ones, with the support of holders of approximately 47% of the existing notes.
- This move is intended to reduce leverage and extend maturity, supporting Beyond Meat’s long-term vision.
- Investors hated it - stock down 30% to all -time low

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Rate cut – rates up?

Diet Stocks – losing weight

Good news/bad news – all good for markets

Bessent for Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary?

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Warm-Up- BRAND New server - all provisioned - Much faster DH Site
- Need a new CTP stock!
- New Clear Stocks!
- To the Sky - Money Tree Market
- Tik Tok news

Markets- Rate cut - rates up
- Diet Stocks - losing weight
- Good news/bad news - all good for markets
- StubHub IPO Update

SELL Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur?

Vanguard Issues? Got a call this morning..Gent in NY...

NEW CLEAR - On Fire!
- Have you seen the returns on some of these stocks?
- YTD
- - URA (Uranium ETF) Up 75%
-- SMR (NuScale) Up 164%
- - OKLO (OKL) up 518%
- - CCJ (Cameco) up 65%

TikTok Nonsense
- President Donald Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday that conservative media baron Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan are likely to be involved in the proposal to save TikTok in the United States.
-Trump also said that Oracle executive chairman Larry Ellison and Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell are also likely to be involved in the TikTok deal.

More TikTok
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says TikTok's algorithm will be secured, retrained, and operated in the U.S. outside of Bytedance's control; Oracle (ORCL) will serve as Tiktok's security provider; President Trump will sign TikTok deal later this week
- What does that mean and will it be the same TikTok.
- Who is doing the retraining??????? SO MANY QUESTIONS

MEME ALERT!
- Eric Jackson, a hedge fund manager who partly contributed to the trading explosion in Opendoor, unveiled his new pick Monday — Better Home & Finance Holding Co.
- Jackson said his firm holds a position in Better Home but didn’t disclose its size.
- Shares of Better Home soared 46.6% on Monday after Jackson touted the stock on X. At one point during the session, the stock more than doubled in price.
- The New York-based mortgage lender jumped more than 36% last week.

Intel
- INTC getting even more money.
- Now, NVDA pouring in $5B
- Nvidia and Intel announced a partnership to jointly develop multiple generations of custom data center and PC products. Intel will manufacture new x86 CPUs customized for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure, and also build system-on-chips (SoCs) for PCs that integrate Nvidia’s RTX GPU chiplets.
- Both the US Government and NVDA got BELOW market pricing on their shares.

NVDA $$
- Nvidia is investing in OpenAI. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI, which includes an investment of up to $100 billion
- The agreement will help deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, which will include millions of its GPUs. The first phase is scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026, using Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform.

Autism Link
- Shares of Kenvue (KVUE) are trading lower largely due to reports from the White House and HHS suggesting a forthcoming warning linking prenatal use of acetaminophen (Tylenol's active ingredient) to autism risk.
- Investors are concerned that such a warning could lead to regulatory action, changes in labeling requirements, litigation risk, or reduced demand for one of KVUE's key products. It's estimated that Tylenol accounts for approximately 7-9% of KVUE's total revenue.
- The company has strongly denied any scientific basis for the link, but the uncertainty itself is hurting sentiment.
- Finally, this also comes on top of recent weak financial performance: KVUE posted a Q2 revenue decline of 4% and cut its full-year guidance on August 7.
- - Lawsuits to follow...

Pfizer
- Pfizer (PFE) announced it will acquire clinical-stage biotech Metsera (MTSR) in a cash-and-contingent value rights deal worth up to $70 per share, as it seeks a foothold in the fast-growing obesity drug market. The deal includes $47.50 per share in cash -- a 43% premium to MTSR's closing price last Friday -- plus up to $22.50 in milestone payments tied to the development and commercial success of MTSR's lead candidate, MET-097i.
-PFE shares are climbing higher Mondayon the news, with investors hopeful the acquisition could provide the next long-term growth catalyst, especially as COVID-19 product sales have sharply declined in recent quarters.

Mortgage Rates
- Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields rose this week despite the Federal Reserve cutting its short-term interest rate.
- The 10-year yield is little changed since early 2024, despite the Fed cutting rates multiple times since then.
- The 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 4.145% after briefly falling below 4% this week. The 30-year Treasury yield — closely followed for its connection to home mortgages — traded around 4.76%, up from a low of 4.604% earlier in the week.
-- Sell the news?

Big
- BOJ keeps short-term policy rate steady at 0.5%
- Two board members proposed unsuccessfully to hike to 0.75%
- BOJ decides to start selling ETFs, REITs in market
- The BOJ said it would start selling once necessary operational preparations are completed, and could review the pace of selling in future policy meetings.
- The decision marks another step toward dismantling remnants of the BOJ's radical stimulus aimed at reviving a moribund economy, which left it with 37-trillion-yen worth of ETFs on its balance sheet accumulated during 13 years of purchases.
- Yen rallies, stocks turn negative after decision

Close the OpenDoor
- Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure.
- Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO.
- “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC.
- meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post

WHO Backs Diet Shots
- The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease.
-The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes.

AND
- FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing
_ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative.

Crackdown
- HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law.
- Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising.
- Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations.

Thoughts? Dual Roles
- New item of oddness
- Idea being floated that Treas Secty Bessent could have dual roles as Fed Chair and Treasury Secty
- How does that work?

H1-B
- Golden passports??
- The White House announced the new fee on Friday, prompting some major U.S. tech firms to advise visa holders to either remain in the country or return there quickly.
- Imposing a new $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications could disrupt the global operations of Indian technology services companies that deploy skilled professionals to the United States
- Some follow up over the weekend that if you were here already, this probably does not apply

There it is...
- Paul Atkins, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said his agency will propose a rule change following President Donald Trump’s call to switch quarterly earnings reports to a semiannual schedule.
- Atkins said if the rule change is approved, it will be left to companies to decide whether they switch to semiannual or stay with quarterly.
- Rule can be changed by majority vote
- The issue has come under heated debate as opponents of less frequent reporting argue the lack of transparency would be a detriment to investors, especially retail investors who don’t have as ample resources as Wall Street institutions.
- Supporters say a six-month reporting schedule would free up companies to focus their businesses on a longer-term basis.

Suckers!
- Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $10 billion from investors in a round that values the company at $200 billion, sources told CNBC’s David Faber.
- The fundraising comes weeks after Musk raised $10 billion in debt and equity at what was believed to be a roughly $150 billion valuation.
- Later on Friday, Musk called the report “fake news” in a post on X, and said “xAI is not raising any capital right now.”
- Remembering: In March, Musk announced that xAI had merged with X, his social network, in an all-stock transaction that valued the AI company at $80 billion and the social media company at $33 billion. Musk acquired Twitter for about $44 billion in 2022 and later changed the name to X.

More Rug Pulls
- Shares of StubHub Holdings fell by 6.38 percent on its first day as a publicly listed company, dropping 6.38 percent to close at $22 apiece
- Nonetheless, StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) was able to raise $800 million from its initial public offering, having issued more than 34 million shares to the public.
- The company’s market value was at $8.1 billion at market close.
- Why crap: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:STUB) said it planned to use the proceeds from the offer to pay down debt, while the balance will be allocated for general corporate purposes.

Oh And...
- The Federal Trade Commission and seven states sued Live Nation and Ticketmaster for tacitly coordinating with brokers and allowing them to harvest millions of dollars worth of tickets in the primary market.
- Live Nation and Ticketmaster then sell the illegally harvested tickets at a substantial markup in the secondary market, causing consumers to pay significantly more than the face value of the ticket.- BTW, exactly what is happening in the stock market right now. Exactly what we are seeing with the AI startups too.
The FTC further alleged in a complaint that California-based Ticketmaster LLC and its parent company Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., (collectively “Ticketmaster”) deceived artists and consumers by engaging in bait-and-switch pricing through advertising lower prices for tickets than what consumers must pay to purchase tickets; deceptively claimed to impose strict limits on the number of tickets that consumers could purchase for an event, even though ticket brokers routinely and substantially exceeded those limits; and sold millions of tickets, often at much higher cost to consumers, on its resale platform that those brokers obtained in excess of artists’ ticket limits.
- - - IS Anything Going to Come of THIS?

Apple Watch Workaround
- Remember when they had to take out that component for blood pressure
- Now adding AI to monitor blood pressure notification in latest watch (back to models series 9)
- Not actual blood pressure - but takes various readings and theorizes and recommends you see someone

Update
- Spirit Airlines is planning to reduce capacity 25% in its November schedule, CEO Dave Davis told staff Wednesday.
- Davis hinted at further job cuts or furloughs as the discounter scrambles to cut costs, according to a memo viewed by CNBC.
- Spirit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month for the second time in a year.

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Cash on the sidelines…. (that thesis is coming back)

ATH – Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks… (Sentiment)

Most hated stocks – more hate

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Warm-Up- AI - the promise and the theft
- Need a new CTP stock!
- Most hated stocks - more hate
- Football Season !!!!!!!!!

Markets- ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment)
- NVDA under China's microscope
- Cash on the sidelines.... (that reason coming back)
- StubHub IPO coming (thieves, but make $ for company)

Once again
- House to put forth stopgap bill that would fund government through November 21; vote expected Friday

CPI and Jobs- The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%.
---For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.
- The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
- The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.

Retail Sales
- Can't count out the US Consumer - THEY CONSUME
- Retail sales increase 0.6% in August, beating expectations
- Core retail sales rise 0.7%; July gain unrevised at 0.5%
- Higher prices account for some of the rise in sales, but consumers also showing resilience
- Import prices increase 0.3% amid strong gains in capital, consumer goods

Fed Day
- Odds are 100% for 0.25 cut and 3.9% for a 0.50% cut
- Lots of talk about 3 cuts for 2025 (Sept, Oct, December)
- Gold hitting new highs, silver up there (Schiff on TDI Podcast this week)
- Cook not allowed to be fired

Google
- Welcome to the TRILLION dollar market cap club
- Even with the concern over AI eating up search - stock is ATH after the recent court ruling
-- Probably also due to free input for their LLMs
- The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant's AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites.
- The lawsuit by Penske Media in federal court in Washington, D.C., marks the first time a major U.S. publisher has taken Alphabet-owned Google to court over the AI-generated summaries that now appear on top of its search results.
- News organizations have for months said the new features, including Google's "AI Overviews," siphon traffic away from their sites, eroding advertising and subscription revenue.
- Penske, a family-owned media conglomerate led by Jay Penske and whose content attracts 120 million online visitors a month, said Google only includes publishers' websites in its search results if it can also use their articles in AI summaries.
- Without the leverage, Google would have to pay publishers for the right to republish their work or use it to train its AI systems, the company said in the lawsuit. I

NVDA
- China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly law after preliminary probe
- China’s market regulator on Monday said that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law, according to a preliminary probe, adding that Beijing would continue its investigation into the U.S. chip giant.
- Surely if USA allows access to the H20 chip that this will go away....

Tesla Shares
- First, company is not doing well - as a company - but stock is performing
- Elon announced that he invested $1B in Tesla shares (first time since 2020)
- It is being interpreted by the market as a strong vote of confidence in TSLA’s long-term prospects
--- OH MY Robotaxis must be near!
--- Timing on 2 fronts (Oracle and Pay package)
---- Real reason: (an bets on for him Shorting Oracle after the pop)

Billionaire List

NEW CLEAR
- The Trump administration’s top energy official said the US should look to boost its strategic uranium reserve to buffer against Russian supplies and increase confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power generation.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright comments underscore the Trump administration’s plans to promote nuclear energy as the demand for power soars with the electrification of the economy.
- Russia supplies about a quarter of the enriched uranium needed by America’s fleet 94 nuclear reactors, which generate about a fifth of US electricity.

IPO
- Gemini, the Winklevoss’ crypto exchange, pops more than 14% in Nasdaq debut
- Got to$44 on the open then faded - currently trading at ~~$33~~ $28
-- Funny how all of these DEFI companies want to trade on Old School exchanges

Cash and Cash Alternatives
- There is over $7 trillion in cash-equivalent investments that have offered an attractive return for no market risk, and while much of that money is institutional or emergency funds savings, some shift out of cash-equivalent assets can be expected as the Fed begins to cut rates.
- Cash of the sidelines - money will pour into markets if rates come down as TINA returns
- - - The cash on the sidelines bull thesis has been debunked many times

On Sideline

Tariff Fun
- Swiss watchmaker Swatch has begun selling a special edition watch with the numbers three and nine reversed on its face in a play on the 39% tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on U.S. imports from Switzerland last month.
- The tariffs - among the highest set by Trump worldwide - were met with shock and dismay in Switzerland, a leading producer of high-end watches and other luxury goods.
- Costing 139 Swiss francs ($175), the watch named "WHAT IF...TARIFFS?" went on sale on Wednesday and is only available in Switzerland, a company spokesperson said on Friday.

Most Hated
- Shares of Pfizer and Moderna fell on Friday after a report that Trump administration health officials plan to link Covid vaccines to the deaths of 25 children.
- The report comes as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, moves to change immunization policy in the U.S.
- The report said officials plan to include the claim in a presentation next week to a key vaccine panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and plays a key role in shot access.

Phishing
- Reuters and a Harvard University researcher used top chatbots to plot a simulated phishing scam – from composing emails to tips on timing – and tested it on 108 elderly volunteers. The bots’ persuasive performance shows how AI is arming criminals for industrial-scale fraud.
- “We believe every senior deserves dignity and joy in their golden years,” it read. “By clicking here, you’ll discover heartwarming stories of seniors we’ve helped and learn how you can join our mission.”
- But the charity was fake, and the email’s purpose was to defraud seniors out of large sums of money. Its author: Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence chatbot, Grok.
- Grok warned a reporter that the malicious email it created “should not be used in real-world scenarios.” The bot nonetheless produced the phishing attempt as requested and dialed it up with the “click now” line.
- Overall, about 11% of the seniors clicked on the emails sent. Five of the nine scam mails tested drew clicks: two generated by Meta AI, two by Grok and one by Claude. None clicked on emails generated by ChatGPT or DeepSeek.

Thoughts?
- The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- Miran will participate in the Fed policy committee’s upcoming meeting, where the board will consider whether to cut interest rates.
- Miran will also keep his White House position at the helm of the Council of Economic Advisors, but will take an unpaid leave to serve on the central bank board.
- Mole???? Moellleee mole Moleee....

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Football Team Valuations

Sexy is back – Retail

What winning the Powerball Jackpot means

A little 1,000,000 revision…

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Warm-Up- Stagflation - as payrolls drop
- People in glass houses ....Stupid Politics
- We are still here - which means we did not win the Powerball Jackpot
- They say it will never happen - Ban on stock ownership for Congress

Markets- CRISPR Chocolates?
- Tech - again the driver
- Sexy is back - Retail
- Take in stride - on 900k less workers
- ORACLE!!!!!!

Powerball Jackpot
- $1.8 Billion
- Two winners - Texas and Missouri
- Each winning ticket holder can choose either an annuitized prize of $893.5 million or a lump sum payment of $410.3 million – both before taxes.
- Additionally, two lucky tickets sold in Kansas and Texas won a $2 million prize and 18 tickets sold across 13 states won $1 million.
- Back to just $20 million now...
- The odds of winning were 1 in 292.2 million, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association, which oversees the game.

Glass Houses
- Pulte - Accuses Fed's Cook and with simple accusations Trump looking to Fire ...
- Close relatives of the federal official who has accused a Federal Reserve governor of improperly claiming primary residence on two properties have declared the same status on two homes in two different states, public records show.
- Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called “homestead exemptions” for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida, according to the records. The exemption is meant to give a discount to homeowners on taxes for properties they use as their primary residence.
- Local tax officials in both states told Reuters that claiming more than one home as a primary residence isn’t generally allowed in their jurisdictions and could be punishable by fines or back taxes.
- After Reuters contacted tax officials in Bloomfield Township, Michigan, to inquire about the dual claims, Darrin Kraatz, director of assessing, on Thursday said the township “as of today” would revoke the exemption on the Pultes’ residence there.

Beat Your Ass
- Seems at a recent dinner- Pulte got under Scott Bessent's skin and bessent was pissed
- F You - I am going to beat your ass - punch you in the F'n mouth for bad talking me to president Trump
- Class act these children

Chocolate Editing
- Candy maker Mars said Wednesday it has partnered with biotech company Pairwise to speed up the development of more resilient cocoa using CRISPR-based gene editing technology.
- CRISPR technology is a gene-editing tool that makes changes to DNA and can be used in farming.
- The goal is to create cacao plants that can better withstand disease, heat and other climate-related stresses that can put global chocolate supply at risk.
---- Public Service: The main difference between cocoa and cacao: cacao is minimally processed and remains largely raw and nutrient-dense, while cocoa is made from roasted cacao beans that have been processed at high temperatures. This heat and processing affect cacao's nutrient profile and flavor, making cacao powder more bitter and richer in nutrients, and cocoa powder milder and more suitable for baking.

GOOGLE for the win
- Google shares popped 8% on Wednesday last week as investors celebrated what they viewed as minimal consequences from a historic defeat last year in the landmark antitrust case.
- Last year, Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search.
- U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled against the most severe consequences that were proposed by the Department of Justice, including the forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser, which provides data that helps its advertising business deliver targeted ads.
- “Google will not be required to divest Chrome; nor will the court include a contingent divestiture of the Android operating system in the final judgment,” the decision stated. “Plaintiffs overreached in seeking forced divestiture of these key assets, which Google did not use to effect any illegal restraints.”
- Knock on... Google pays Apple billions of dollars per year to be the default search engine on iPhones.
--- It’s lucrative for Apple and a valuable way for Google to get more search volume and users.
----- Apple stock rose 4% on Wednesday in response...

Sexy Back
- American Eagle said its campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney has so far led to positive gains in new customers and sales.
- The clothing retailer issued fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations on the top and bottom lines.
- It re-issued its full year guidance and is now expecting lower operating income because of tariffs.
- American Eagle stock soared more than 20% in after-hours trading Wednesday.
- “The fall season is off to a positive start. Fueled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement and comparable sales,”
- Sweeney or Swift?
- Earnings per share: 45 cents vs. 21 cents expected
- Revenue: $1.28 billion vs. $1.24 billion expected
- - - Calling BS: The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Aug. 2 was $77.6 million, or 45 cents per share, compared with $77.3 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier.

Congress
- A ban on members of Congress and their families trading or owning stocks got new momentum last week, after a bipartisan group of House members announced they had come to an agreement on a new bill.
- The Restore Trust in Congress Act combines several different proposals into one vehicle that supporters say will focus the debate and lead to passage.

Apple Event
- Apple today announced AirPods Pro 3, taking the most popular headphones in the world to an entirely new level. AirPods Pro 3 deliver unbelievable sound quality and the world’s best in-ear Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) — removing up to 2x more noise than the previous-generation AirPods Pro, and 4x more than the original AirPods Pro.
- For the first time, users can utilize AirPods Pro 3 to measure heart rate and track over 50 workout types with the new experience in the Fitness app on iPhone.
- Live Translation also comes to AirPods, making face-to-face conversations easier by helping users connect even if they don’t speak the same language.
- Apple® today introduced Apple Watch Ultra® 3 — the most advanced Apple Watch® — delivering expanded health, fitness, safety, and connectivity features, and seamlessly shifting between a powerful sports watch, an elegant smartwatch, and a comprehensive health companion.
--- 42 hours battery, satellite, 5G
- New iPhone 17
- GAME CHNGER slimmer Iphone Air (still noting about the AI and SIRI update)
- Glass big point they discussed... Ceramic shield
- Seems like just put new number on phone with some upgrades - video presentation is the same as has been for years
- On one hand - stale - on the other, if it ain't broke...

Oracle
- "We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1...This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion. It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build. Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars. The scale of our recent RPO growth enables us to make a large upward revision to the Cloud Infrastructure portion of Oracle's overall financial plan which we will be presenting in detail next month at the Financial Analyst Meeting. As a bit of a preview, we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Most of the revenue in this 5-year forecast is already booked in our reported RPO."
"MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft grew at the incredible rate of 1,529% in Q1," said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison.
- Stock up 22% A/H

!!Rounding Error!!
- The BLS preliminary benchmark revision for 12-month period ending March 2025 shows 911,000 fewer jobs than previously published
- Large benchmark revision (-911,000) for nonfarm employment will reinforce market's belief that Fed will cut rates by at least 75 basis points before the end of the year, while perhaps also driving increased expectations of a 50-basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting
- Historical Average: From 2002 to 2023, the average benchmark revision was around 255,000 jobs, with most years seeing revisions well below that.
Largest Prior Revision: The previous record was in 2009, when the BLS revised employment down by 902,000 jobs, which was considered extraordinary at the time due to the financial crisis.
Current Revision: The 2025 revision of -911,000 is now the largest in over two decades, surpassing even the 2009 figure

BLS Monthly Report
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, lower than the 75,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
- The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June.
- Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.

AI - The Promise
- OpenAI has sharply raised its projected cash burn through 2029 to $115 billion as it ramps up spending to power the artificial intelligence behind its popular ChatGPT chatbot, The Information reported on Friday.
- The new forecast is $80 billion higher than the company previously expected, the news outlet said, without citing a source for the report.
- So.... Not profitable untol at least 2029 (4 years)
- To control its soaring costs, OpenAI will seek to develop its own data center server chips and facilities to power its technology (Broadcom and what does this mean for NVDA)

What about those Tariffs
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is “confident” President Donald Trump’s tariff plan “will win” at the Supreme Court, but warned the U.S. would be forced to issue massive refunds if it loses.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett noted that there are “other legal authorities” that the administration could use if the tariffs are blocked.
- Before court action, Trump’s tariffs were set to affect nearly 70% of U.S. goods imports.
- Bessent has said that “delaying a ruling until June 2026 could result in a scenario in which $750 billion-$1 trillion in tariffs have already been collected, and unwinding them could cause significant disruption.”

Tesla -
- New pay package for Musk - could result in upwards of a $TRILLION payday
- Tesla’s board is asking investors to approve a new pay plan for CEO Elon Musk worth about $975 billion.
The full award would give Musk more than 423 million additional shares.
The company will also ask shareholders to vote on whether the automaker should invest in Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI.

Hedge Fund Performance
- Hedge fund stock pickers returned over 2.2% in August and are up just over 10% for the year so far, said a Goldman Sachs note to clients on September 2.
- Systematic hedge funds, which use algorithms to trade, returned almost 2.4% for the month and are now up 12.3% for the year to August-end, the note showed.
- Hedge fund leverage, an indication of how actively hedge funds trade, declined across all regions into September, suggesting hedge funds turned cautious despite the anticipated U.S. rate cut later in September, said the Goldman note.

Football Team Valuations

Team Values

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Blame it on AI – new excuse: Flirty Chatbots

NVDIA earnings the high point for a while?

Announcing the WINNER of the CTP

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Interactive Brokers

Warm-Up- Tariffs deemed illegal?
- So much for rates coming down - Long bond up again
- Announcing the WINNER of the CTP
- Blame it on AI - new excuse.... Flirty Chatbots

Markets- NVDIA earnings the high point for a while?
- Good month - August is green - Sept starting out wobbly
- AI News - Valuations - TO THE MOON

NVDA Earnings
- From last Wednesday
- STRONG: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, and said sales growth this quarter will remain above 50%
- Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $1.01 estimated
- Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.06 billion estimated
- Overall company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from $30.04 billion a year ago, Nvidia said. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters, dating back to mid-2023
-Stock opened Thursday at $180 - now trades near $168
--- Some concern over data-center revenue declining 1% from previous quarter due to $4B less in sales of H20 chips

NEW CLEAR
- The Duane Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons in 2020
- NextEra Energy (NEE)
- Duane Arnold would follow similar restarts planned for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which plan to resume operations later this year and in 2027
- Big Change on the economics is just 5 years!

USA Travel
- Who needs those pesky visitors anyway
- Overseas travel to the U.S. fell 3.1% year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to U.S. government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4 million.
- New VISA INTEGRITY fees on incoming travelers from many countries
- The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442 for non-via waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China
- In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53% below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4% so far this year, driven by a near 18% drop in students.

Tariffs Illegal?
- A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key inter
- Trump lamented the decision by what he called a "highly partisan" court, posting on Truth Social: "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country."
national economic policy tool.
- So, now it goes to the Supreme Court (non - partisan?)
- Talk of the Bond Vigilantes making a move if the tariffs struck down because not much to pay the huge deficit and debt encumbered with new OBBBA

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Speaking of Rates
- Since the Powell hint of cuts - rates on the rise
- -Longer-Term rates
- Mortgage rates are the highest in months and the 10-Yr is at approx 4.30%
-- Please note, the Fed controls short-term rates.... Some influence on mortgages due to Quantitative easing, but even if rates are dropped does not mean that longer-dated paper will see a drop in the rates

DEE MINIMUM US
- The de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, came to an end globally last Friday.
- Small business owners on Etsy, eBay and Shopify, for example, relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses.
- For nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight.
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- More interesting is that some research shows that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in de minimus packages.
--- In a fact sheet published on July 30, the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 2024, including 98% of narcotics seizures and 97% of intellectual property rights seizures, originated as de minimis shipments.

Make US Politics look calm
- Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday for an ethics violation, in another crushing blow to the Shinawatra political dynasty
- She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court, underlining its central role in an intractable power struggle between the governments of the Shinawatra clan and a nexus of powerful conservatives and royalist generals with far-reaching influence.

This is excellent news
- US is moving forward with the “America by Design” initiative
- The Order establishes the National Design Studio and the role of Chief Design Officer to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical Federal spaces.
- Updating Federal websites to make more intuitive and user friendly
- Currently Only 6% of Federal websites are rated “good” for mobile performance, and 45% of Federal websites are not mobile friendly.

Following Up - Spirit Airline
- Not looking good
- Frontier Air took on and aimed to bury Spirit once and for all
- 2nd Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months
- Presidents letter stated: Blah Blah... We are going though the Chapter 11 process, just like many of companies in the airlines industry have....

Some AI News
- Alibaba is developing a new AI chip
- The chip is specifically for inferencing rather than training but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia.
- Alibaba said it would invest at least 380 billion Chinese yuan ($53.1 billion) in AI over the next three years.

More IA
- Artificial-intelligence company Anthropic said on Tuesday it is now valued at $183 billion post-money, over twice as much as its earlier valuation, as investor enthusiasm towards AI startups stays strong despite some doubts over tech industry spending.
- The new valuation is a jump from the $61.5 billion post-money valuation in March this year, where it raised $3.5 billion.
- Estimates that the company will be pulling in $5B revenue from what they have done recently

TESLA
- News that Euopean sales are sliding - down 40% in the past year
- Tesla has reportedly sold few cars in India since launching in mid-July 2025, with just over 600 orders placed

Kraft Heinz
- Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, it said on Tuesday, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.
- The spinoff, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and tariffs.
- Warren Buffet said he was disappointed in the move
- Shares dropped 7% on the news (so much for unlocking value)

Flirty Chatbots
- Meta has appropriated the names and likenesses of celebrities – including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway and Selena Gomez – to create dozens of flirty social-media chatbots without their permission
- Meta removed some flirty celebrity bots after being questioned by Reuters
- Meta says its own AI created inappropriate images, violating its policies
- Legal expert says Meta's use of likenesses may have violated celebrities' publicity rights

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Jackson HOLY cow what a move….

SOE’s get used to it – We are now China.

Airline consolidation or murder?

Bond yields – Long bond yields up.

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Warm-Up- Excitement over a change in tone from Powell (Powell throws the towel?)
- Crypto surges - then comes back down
- SOE - Get used to that
- Bond yields - Long bond up

Markets- Hitting all-time highs
- Airline consolidation or murder?
- NVDA earnings - reports this week
- Some crypto really moving

Fed Firing
- How do we feel about the firing of Fed's Cook?
- Allegations, not confirmed
- Could this be a play to actually fire Powell?
--- Trump now says that this paves the way to him having a majority that soon will push rate lower (after firing Cook)

Windless
- Shutting down the alt-energy projects
- Wind turbines ugly and no good
- Shares in wind farm developer Orsted
- The U.S. government last week ordered the company to halt construction of an almost completed project.
- Late on Friday the U.S.? Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed

Pricing Power
- News that Spotify will raise prices as it invests in new features and targets 1 billion users
- said the price will rise to 11.99 euros ($14.05) from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.
- Price increases combined with cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped Spotify achieve its first annual profit last year.

Jackson Holy !!
- Powell hinted that maybe there would be a change to his thinking
- In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries.
- In particular, the market was enthused by Mr. Powell's line noting that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which the market took as an open-mindedness to easing.
- The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now stands at 83.1%, up from 75.0% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Jackson - HOLY 2
- Markets reacted strongly in favor of a rate cut - hope
- DJIA up 800 - S&P and NASDAQ rallied
- Small Caps up close to 4%
- USD dove
- Yields - slightly lower
- Crypto - ETHER rallied hard - ATH
---- Give it a day and Ether and Bitcoin came back down to earth

Misunderstanding
- Cut rates so houses more affordable?
- Long rates moved higher -

NVDA
- Earnings due Wednesday After the close
- Nvidia makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates
Zacks Consensus: $1.00
Kiplinger Forecast: $1.01, up 48.5% year-over-year
MarketBeat Average: $0.97 (range: $0.92–$1.05)
- Revenue Estimates
Zacks Consensus: $46.14 billion
Kiplinger Forecast: $46.0 billion, a 53.1% increase YoY
MarketBeat Range: $44.1–$45.9 billion
- Forward-Looking EPS
FY 2026: $4.28 (Zacks), $4.12 (MarketBeat)
FY 2027: $5.70 (Zacks)

SOE - State Owned Enterprises
- We had better get use to it
- All the anger directed at China for this - as unfair practice
- Now, US takes a piece of Intel (10% for $2B ?)
- Wait - 10% is $10B value - is that right?

Intel Math (MATH?)
- The U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel by converting $11.1 billion in previously issued grants and pledges into equity.
- It received 433.3 million non-voting shares priced at $20.47 each, totaling an initial valuation of $8.9 billion
- At the time of the deal, Intel's stock was trading at $24.80, giving the government's stake an immediate paper gain of $1.9 billion, bringing the current estimated value of the stake to approximately $11 billion

Spirit Doomed?
- Frontier on Tuesday announced 20 routes it plans to start this winter, many of them in major Spirit markets like its base at Fort Lauderdale International Airport in Florida.
- Frontier overlaps with Spirit on 35% of its capacity, more than any other airline
- Spirit lost $245million in the 2nd quarter - Frontier $70 million
- This could be the last hoorah for Spirit
- Maybe US Government will buy into

Next Up
- - Lutnick now talking about possibly USA getting a piece of Defense contractors
- Lutnick: Lockheed Martin, which makes most of its revenue from federal contracts, is “basically an arm of the U.S. government,” he said.
- Trump administration military leaders are “thinking about” whether the U.S. should acquire equity stakes in top defense contractors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.

180 Degree Turn
- Cracker Barrel Kerfuffle
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store on Monday issued a statement responding to the backlash it faced last week over its rebranding and new logo.
- “We could’ve done a better job sharing who we are and who we’ll always be,” the restaurant chain said.
- Were people annoyed with the simple logo or why they removed the old man (old White Man Uncle Herschel)
--- OLD COUNTRY STORE was also removed
- Users on social media were quick to criticize the new logo, describing it as “generic,” “soulless” and “bland.”

Crypto
- BIG move post Powell
- Ether surged 15% late Friday, rising as high as $4,885.00 and surpassing its November 2021 record of $4,866.01
- The moves came during Powell’s annual address from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which he indicated conditions “may warrant” interest rate cuts."
- Ethereum doubled over the past two months
- Only about 800,000 ETH is expected to be created over the next year, while institutional demand could reach $20 billion. This 7x demand-to-supply ratio is pushing prices higher

Apple and Google
- Apple in early discussions to use Google’s Gemini AI models for an updated version of the iPhone maker’s Siri assistant.
- HMMMM - The reported talks come as Google faces potential risk to its lucrative search deals with Apple.
- This month, a U.S. judge is expected to rule on the penalties for Google’s alleged search monopoly, in which the Department of Justice recommends eliminating exclusionary agreements with third parties.

META and Google
- Google won a $10 billion cloud contract from Meta spanning six years, according to two people familiar with the matter.
- Meta has largely been reliant on Amazon Web Services for cloud infrastructure though it also uses Microsoft Azure.
-

Furniture Tariffs
- President Donald Trump threatened Friday to impose tariffs on furniture, adding to his levies on specific products and commodities.
Stocks for some furniture and home goods companies, including Wayfair, RH and Williams-Sonoma, tumbled after the market close, following Trump’s post.
- “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”
- Vietnam markets do not care - Up 55% since April low, 30% since just before tariff announcement.
- Beneficiary of the China hate?

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Bottom Fishing for bargains.

Consolidation, Digestion – awaiting the next catalyst.

Saudi SWF takes a hit.

The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner.

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Warm-Up- Labubus - Beanie Babies ?
- US Debt - wretched
- Good fishing this weekend
- Chip Trackers

Markets- Bottom Fishing
- Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst
- Saudi SWF takes a hit
- Validations - to the MOON
- Casual Dining take a hit

Weekend Fishing
- Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna
- 2 bucket list items

The CONFAB
- August 21 to August 23
- Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy
- Powell to speak Friday at 10am
- Historically:
---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982)
--- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2
--- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets
--- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth

More Jackson Hole
- Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career
- Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair
- Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk

US Debt
- The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
- OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit)
- US Debt to GDP = 100%
- Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly)
- 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person

LabooooBooo
- Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults.
- In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze.
- The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get.
- Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72.

Investing - A better Way?
- Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing
- Next drawing - Wednesday night
- The jackpot is a new high for 2025
- he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California.
- The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million

Energy Needed
- Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid.
- The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes.
- TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S. to sign an offtake agreement with an advanced nuclear plant.
- Google, Kairos and TVA said their collaboration will move the U.S. a step closer to deploying advanced nuclear reactors by making sure consumers are not on the hook for the cost of building the plant.
- In other words, public-private and private industry is footing the bill for their own utility infrastructure build out.

Chip Trackers
- U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge of the previously unreported law enforcement tactic.
- The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions, and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said.
- None of this is really supposed to be know and if it was - to what extent?

Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue
_ Cisco reported results on Wednesday that narrowly exceeded analysts’ expectations and issued quarterly guidance that was also better than expected.
- Earnings per share: 99 cents adjusted vs. 98 cents expected
- Revenue: $14.67 billion vs. $14.62 billion expected
- Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue

Bottom Fishing
- Lots of news...... Intel and UNH
- UnitedHealth shares soared after Warren Buffett (Berkshire) revealed a stake of 5 million shares, worth about $1.6 billion, in the troubled health insurer.
- The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry and Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper also disclosed sizable stakes in the company.
- The health-care stock ended the day up 12%, its best daily performance since March 2020
- Vote of confidence - Stock has some backers- more may come to the rescue as they accumulate shares (first accumulate, then disclose)

More Bottom Fishing?
- Let's get busy!
- First the US government teases abut taking a 10% stake - not sure how...
- Now Softbank initiates a $2 billion investment
- SoftBank not seeking board seat or committing to buy Intel chips- this was a capital infusion
- - Most analysts see this nothing more that Masayoshi Son trying to keep good relations with President Trump

Saudi SWF
- 8% writedown is on a decline in investments on GigaProjects (New cities, Entertainment Complex, Heritage preservation, Urban parks, Urban redevelopment)
- The PIF’s assets under management climbed 19% from the end of 2023 to $913 billion, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing sovereign wealth funds on the planet. (The investment portion of the fund)
- No Wonder there is so much money flowing into stocks over the past year - AND this is just one SWF

Valuation Evaluation
- Open AI - OpenAI is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.
- Company is is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.

Japan Economy
- Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 from the previous first three months, outpacing forecasts despite tariff headwinds out of the United States.
- Last quarter there was a contraction - so no recession
- The GDP beat was mainly attributed to resilience in exports, which added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared to the 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of the year.

Predicti0ns and Observations
- David Rosenberg - "Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of all the leverage supporting the stock market has been built up just in the past year alone; almost half of the outstanding margin debt has come in the past five years alone."
- M2 (money supply) has also increase dramatically

Fast Casual
- Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown
- Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales.
- So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70%
- Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%.

Extortion Anyone?
- US Government now wants equity from Intel as a part of the money provided in CHIPS act
- 10% for $10b grant
- How is this rewritten after the fact? The idea was to create obs and manufacturing in return for these grants
- Mentioned that they will extend to other CHIPS Act recipients as well

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China Style Capitalism – CHINUS Capitalism

Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now

Fresh set of IPOs entering the market

A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement

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Warm-Up- China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism
- Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now
- Fresh set of IPOs entering the market
- A NEW Closest to The Pin
- AND a couple of listener limericks

Markets- New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout
- Apple best week since 2020
- Alts coming to your 401k
- Gold - no longer to be tariff'd
- NVDA chips - not safe?

Fed Speakers
- Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year?
- CPI and PPI this week so we shall see
-- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted

New America Way of Business? - CHINUS
- Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House.
- In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT.
- The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????)

Perplexing
- Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ
- Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting
- Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance
-

IPOs
- The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include:
- Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%)
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%)
- inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%)
- Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%)
- Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%)
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%)
- HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%)

JOBS Report FIX
- BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview
- Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...?
- More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report
- The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation
---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday
- But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers?

Intel - 96 hours of fun
- Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company
- Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO
- Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House

Apple
- Best week since July 2020
- Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wednesday.
- $400 Billion in market cap with promise to increase spend in America of $100B (chips, manufacturing etc)
- Brings the total promised to $600B since Trump's first term
- There are no official known records that show how much was spent of the $500 billion
- NO TEETH

NVDA- Risk to China
- Nvidia’s chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account affiliated with China’s state media said on Sunday, after Beijing raised concerns over backdoor access in those chips.
- The H20 chips are also not technologically advanced or environmentally friendly, the account, Yuyuan Tantian, which is affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, said in an article published on WeChat.
- “When a type of chip is neither environmentally friendly, nor advanced, nor safe, as consumers, we certainly have the option not to buy it,” the article concluded.

401ks
- The new White House order directing regulators to expand access to alternative investments in 401(k) plans, like crypto or privately owned companies adds a new layer of risk to the retirement portfolios for ordinary investors that they may not fully understand, investment professionals say.
- Private equity and other alternative asset funds have increasingly been raising capital from wealthy individuals but are traditionally designed for institutional investors and typically include layers of fees. Private equity, for instance, has long had the "2 and 20" structure: managers collect a 2% overall fee, as well as 20% of any gains.
- Risk, lock ups, irregular valuations
- How is this just approved by the White House? The Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) is the primary government agency that oversees 401(k) plans. They ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and other relevant legislation.

Softbank - Riding High
- Shares of SoftBank Group ended Friday 10.39% higher at 13,865, paring gains from its record of 14,390 earlier in the session following the company’s higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter profit.
- SoftBank shares have extended gains to a fourth straight session, and closed at a record high on Thursday, before the company released its earnings.
- SoftBank’s profits for the April to June quarter came in at 421.8 billion yen ($2.87 billion), substantially overshooting LSEG consensus estimates of127.6 billion yen.
- AI bets fueling shares - Vision Fund
- - History:
- Launched Yahoo! Japan in the 1990s
- Acquired Vodafone Japan in 2006 (now SoftBank Corp., Japan’s third-largest wireless carrier).
- Invested early in Alibaba, turning a $20 million stake into tens of billions

Trade Desk
- Shares of The Trade Desk plummeted 39% on Friday, their worst day on record, after the ad-tech company announced the departure of its CFO and analysts expressed concerns about rising competition from Amazon
- The Trade Desk, which went public in 2016, suffered its steepest prior drop in February, when the shares fell 33% on a revenue miss. In its second-quarter earnings report late Thursday, the company beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the results failed to impress investors.
- The Trade Desk, which specializes in providing technology to companies that want to target users across the web
- Big concern was the growing role of Amazon in the advert space. Also, Meta's AI ad placement probably not helping.

Pulse of the World?
- Maersk CEO flags strong demand ‘pretty much everywhere’ except for the U.S. as outlook raised
- Shipping giant Maersk on Thursday reported better-than-expected quarterly profit, defying trade fears even as the industry navigates a new era of tariff complexity.
- Maersk also raised its full-year guidance and the outlook for global container market volume growth.
--- Maersk raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, saying underlying EBITDA this year is expected to come in between $8 billion to $9.5 billion, up from previous guidance of between $6 billion to $9 billion.
- “Outside of the United States, we see a continued very strong demand and that is fueling the earnings and the upgrade that we were able to do today,” CEO Vincent Clerc.

SPORTS Hookup
- Walt Disney's ESPN has reached a landmark deal with the National Football League to acquire NFL Network and other media assets from the league in exchange for the NFL taking a 10% equity stake in the sports network, the parties said on Tuesday.
- NFL will take a 10% equity stake in ESPN
- Stake could be worth $2 billion to $3 billion, analysts and industry insiders say
- Potential Conflict of interest? ESPN has a sportsbook - ESPN Bet... (Deal remains subject to regulatory approval)

Lilly
- New weight loss pill effective - 12% reduction in body weight after 72 weeks late-stage trial
- They bring Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, one step closer to potentially becoming a new, needle-free alternative without dietary restrictions in the booming market for weight loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s.

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ANNNOUNCING
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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

Keith JacobsIn finance, a trader did crack.
Buxom tracks had investors aback.
While she'd trade with great zest,
And made some quite the best,
Her returns just often won’t rack.

In the Fed halls, a plan did rise,
To tame inflation so outsize'.
With dollar-backed might,
And digital right?
Now wait for a crypto surprise.

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Employment Report – Revisions Gone Wild

But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)

Earnings Season – Plenty of CapX

Boeing making moves – unions may strike

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Warm-Up- Fed - Standing Pat
- Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays
- India taking Heat
- OPEC at it Again

Markets-Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild
- But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)
- Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX
- Boeing making moves - unions may strike

The Bend and Snap
- That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair)
- Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings

Jobs Report
- 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Only added 73,000 in July
- Revisions for May and June were larger than normal.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.

THEN.....
- President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt.
- “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

GDP
- Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
- Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
- While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
- HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April

OIL
- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.
- The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand.
- In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision.
- Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd
- Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Earnings News

Coinbase
- Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes.
- Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates.
- Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey

Reddit
- Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company.
- Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million.
- Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million, ahead of StreetAccount’s estimates of $160 million.
- Shares surged on the news

Berkshire
- Berkshire’s operating profit — those from the company’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads — dipped to $11.16 billion in the second quarter.
- Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high, though slightly lower than the $347 billion level at the end of March.
- Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 11th quarter in a row, dumping $4.5 billion in equities in the first six months of 2025.
- More importantly: The conglomerate also didn’t repurchase any stock in the first half of 2025 even as shares declined more than 10% from a record high.

Apple
- Apple reports biggest revenue growth since December 2021
- Earnings per share: $1.57 vs. $1.43 expected
- Revenue: $94.04 billion vs. $89.53 billion expected
- iPhone revenue: $44.58 billion vs. $40.22 billion expected
- Mac revenue: $8.05 billion vs. $7.26 billion expected
- iPad revenue: $6.58 billion vs. $7.24 billion expected
- Other Products revenue: $7.40 billion vs. $7.82 billion expected
- Services revenue: $27.42 billion vs. $26.80 billion expected
- Gross margin: 46.5% vs. 45.9% expected
- Apple incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the call. That came in lower than the $900 million estimate the company provided in May. For the September quarter, assuming no changes, Apple could incur about $1.1 billion in tariff costs, Cook said.
- STOCK DOWN after report

Amazon
- Earnings per share: $1.68 vs. $1.33 expected
- Revenue: $167.7 billion vs. $162.09 billion expected
- Amazon Web Services: $30.87 billion vs. $30.8 billion expected
- Advertising: $15.7 billion vs. $14.9 billion expected
- For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects operating income to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion. Analysts were looking for $19.48 billion
- STOCK DOWN after report

Fall From Grace
- UnitedHealth Group on Tuesday issued a 2025 outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the company’s insurance unit continues to grapple with higher medical costs.
- The company anticipates it will post 2025 adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share, with revenue of $445.5 billion to $448 billion.
- Wall Street analysts had expected 2025 adjusted profit of $20.91 per share, and full-year revenue of $449.16 billion, according to consensus estimates

AMD Earnings
- An OKAY quarter - met expectations on EPS beat revenues, guides revenues for next quarter above analysts estimates
-- Big revenue promises again into the future - but that did not help the stock (dvanced Micro Devices sees Q3 revs $8.4-9.0 bln vs $8.32 bln FactSet Consensus )
- Non-GAAP gross margin of 43% compared to 53% in year-earlier quarter.
- Down 6% after hours

Weird Story
- High Noon has issued a recall of one of its popular vodka seltzer drinks, saying some packages may contain Celsius energy drink cans filled with the alcoholic beverage.
- The cans, labeled as Celsius Astro Vibe Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, were found in certain shipments of High Noon’s Beach Variety 12-packs.
- The issue was traced to a packaging supplier that accidentally sent Celsius-branded cans to High Noon’s facility
- They were distributed to multiple states including Florida, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.

FOMC Meeting
- 2 dissents - as expected
- No change in rate - outlook is fluid
- Still sees risk of inflation
- BUT, now that 50k revisions to jobs number.....?????

Scabs
- More than 3,200 union members who assemble Boeing's fighter jets in the St. Louis area and Illinois went on strike on Monday after rejecting a second contract offer the previous day.
- Boeing Defense said it was ready for the work stoppage and it will implement a contingency plan that uses non-labor workers.
- According to the company, the rejected four-year contract would have raised the average wage by roughly 40% and included a 20% general wage increase and a $5,000 ratification bonus. It also included increasing periodic raises, more vacation time and sick leave.

Joby Deal
- Electric Aircraft business is acquiring Blade's passenger business for $125M
- Reasoning has to do with the commercial operations in Dubai???

Lyft and Baidu
- Baidu will bring its driverless taxis to Europe next year via a partnership with U.S. ridehailing firm Lyft as the Chinese tech giant looks to expand its autonomous vehicles globally.
- The robotaxis will initially be deployed in the U.K. and Germany from 2026 with the aim to have “thousands” of vehicles across Europe in the “following years,” the two companies said.
Interesting as Lyft was always DOMESTIC and this is a big move and new potential competition to Uber

Coinbase -Debase
- Shares of Coinbase slid on Tuesday as the company announced a $2 billion private offering of convertible senior notes.
- Shres down 30% sine high in Mid-July
- Genius Act pushed optimism, then faded?
- RobinHood (hood) taking market share? (up 165% YTD)
--- Comments in Barron's that Coinbase and Hood could be added to SP500

Flow-o-Funds
- With $121 billion flowing into ETFs industrywide in July, the yearly tally hit $677 billion and is now on pace for a record $1.3 trillion for 2025, as tracked by State Street Research
- While U.S. equity ETFs maintained their dominance, netting over $56.9 billion in July, foreign rivals are seeing a renaissance as investors seek more diversification. Non-U.S. equity ETFs saw $24 billion in new money.

In closing...
- Tariffs on Pharma
- President Donald Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that planned tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S. could eventually reach up to 250%, the highest rate he has threatened so far.
- He said he will initially impose a “small tariff” on pharmaceuticals, but then in one year to a year and a half “maximum” he will raise that rate to 150% and then 250%.
- But since we will be getting a 1500% cost cut, this would still be FREE

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GDP, Earnings and FOMC meetingCover Art - Best Ever - Not...New term - QUISHINGI gotchooo and Say lessPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterINTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up- Cover Art - Best Ever - Not...- New term - QUISHING- I gotchooo and Say lessMarkets- What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting- MORE ATHs!- Earnings Season Update- Homes - Capital Gains?Cover Art- Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week?- At least TWO glaring issues ...China - another delay/pause?- President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???)EU Deal - Framework of the deal seems done- 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions)- Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up- Some new benefits for US cars into Europe- - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything?Earnings this week of note:- Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025- Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025- Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025- Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025--- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weightingEarnings Season Update- Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%.- If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%).- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%.Real Estate - Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024.- According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers.- The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900- Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June- Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024.Quishing- QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.”- The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.”- There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure.Thoughts?- During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust ...

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Back from Vacation - refreshed?Fun with Coldplay!A quick look at how indices and sectors are doingSugar in the news....The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happenPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterINTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up- Back from Vacation - refreshed?- Fun with Coldplay!- Sugar in the news....- The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happenMarkets- Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week- Some earnings to discuss- A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing- Markets react to Trump/Fed comments- YUGE deal with JapanMarket UpdateTop to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months)Bottom to Recovery of Loss - (2 months)Now overshot and climbing to new ATHDJIA up 4.8%SP500 Up 7.69%NASDAQ up 9%Bitcoin Up 24%Emerging Markets up 24%USD down 10%Gold up 24%Copper up 35%Small Caps up 0.95%Apple DOWN 14% YTD SectorsStaring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025???What to do?- Here we go again...- I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them....-- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?)- If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right?Lessons- Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave.- Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night.- “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.”- PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things!NETFLIX Earnings- Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell.- The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales.- Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.-Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection- Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????)- Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTDImpressive- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong.- The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint.- - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected- - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billionOn the Other Hand- ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter.- ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year.- Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report- ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems,

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OBBBA written into law!Big week for Coney IslandThe American Party - Musk taking a shotAmazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happeningPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterINTERACTIVE BROKERS Warm-Up- OBBBA written into law!- Big week for Coney Island- The American Party - Musk taking a shot- Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening- BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS!Markets- ATH before the July 4th break- Jobs numbers - a bit surprising- Tariff threats are back - full court press is on!-- Letters are going out!- NVDA - History in the makingTHE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before!Earnings SeasonAccording to Factset:- During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual.- The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30.- While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%.- Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%.- Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline.--- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed.ELON- On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts."- He can't be President, what are his aspirations here?Joey, Joey, Joey- Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year.- In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodiumTariffs- After OBBBA - good time to start this up again- Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress.- Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate.Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals.- Johnny:I am going to count to three!- Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.”- Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.- Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday..- Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday.OOPS THERE IT IS!- Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't careChina and Trade Deal- GE Aerospace has received U.S.

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Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachyBanks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sectorBond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcementATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging)PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- More companies are doing this again..- Make Showering Great Again! MSGA- - - Twitter Poll -- New ways to buy stocks via tokens- Musk/Trump Feuding AgainMarkets- Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy- Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector- Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement- ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging)Historically...- Once we know the pattern - we know what usually happens next! Stocks by MonthCircle (CRCL)- MONDAY: Circle reverses ground after initially trading lower on JP Morgan initiation at Underweight and $80 price target.- Note that several analysts' targets came in above $200.- Stock down 15% since we mentioned last week (short idea)Good News for Showering? MSGA- As we know, Trump has railed against modern dishwashers, washing machines, light bulbs, showerheads and toilets, claiming that onerous government regulations render them less effective and more expensive.- On April 9, Trump issued an executive order directing certain federal agencies “to incorporate a sunset provision” into a laundry list of energy production regulations, including those covering appliances. A month later, he issued a memorandum, entitled “Rescission of Useless Water Pressure Standards.”- Following that, on May 12, the Department of Energy announced that it was preparing to eliminate or modify 47 federal regulations “that are driving up costs and lowering quality of life for the American people.”- Many of the rules are covered in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), a decades-old law that mandates energy-efficiency and water-conservation standards for home appliances and plumbing fixtures.- Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency said it is planning to eliminate the Energy Star program, a popular voluntary initiative that manufacturers employ to rank their appliances based on energy conservation and cost savings, displayed on familiar blue labeling at retail as comparison-shopping guides.- Twitter Poll Twitter PollJust in....- Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.The Senate narrowly passed the legislation Tuesday and will now be considered by the House of Representatives.The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden.Next Level?- Robinhood launches stock tokens, reveals Layer 2 blockchain, and expands crypto suite in EU and US with perpetual futures and staking- With tokenized stocks, our European app transitions from being a crypto-only app to an all-in-one investment app powered by crypto.- European customers will have access to 200+ US stock and ETF tokens. Stock token holders will also receive dividend payments directly in their app.Big Beautiful- Clears first hurdle in the Senate (procedural)- Needs to get going on the rest if they want to have it signed into legislation by July 4th- Musk very vocal about the fact it is it is "utterly insane"- Musk says: will “destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” in a post on X.MUSK not happy- Elon does not like the massive spending bill - w...

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WAR! (or is it?)Tesla Robotaxi UpdateJapan's rice problemDrink up! New guidelines coming...PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- WAR! (or is it?)- Tesla Robotaxi Update- Japan's rice problem- Drink up! New guidelines coming...Markets- Not phased by Iranian attack - (well planned attack for markets - timing, newsflow and narrative of "successful mission")- A ceasefire now - quick wars!- P/E forward nearing 22- Leading indicators - dropping- VERY Resilient overall - dips are for buying- NASDAQ 100 closing in on all-time highs - triple topDropping the F Bomb - 7am CNBC- " Two counties that have been that have been fighting so long and so hard that they do not know what the "F***ck" they are doing"Oil- Drops from high of $78 to $66- Iran bombing news spikes the price on Sunday night - and then....free fall....Tesla- Everyone is a flutter about the RoboTaxi test in Austin- Stock moved up 10% on the news Monday-- Everyone knows it is a long haul - but the hope and the promise is something that investors live on- Tesla Robotaxis spotted speeding, making improper turns on first day of service, according to BloombergHAMMER- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, in a news conference Sunday, reviewed operational details of Saturday’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the well-concealed strikes against nuclear development facilities in Iran that both men called an “incredible and overwhelming success.”- “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” President Donald Trump said Saturday.- Bunker Buster Bombs - lots of them- Was it a success?-- Monday: Iran coordinated the attacks on U.S. base in Qatar and gave officials advance warning to minimize casualtiesInteresting- Online job listing company CareerBuilder + Monster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.Leading Indicators- A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications.- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters.- "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said."The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026."Global Rates and Central Banks - Update World RatesJapan's Rice Problem- Rice prices in Japan more than doubled in May, spiking 101.7% year over year and marking their largest increase in over half a century.- The huge spike follows a 98.4% increase in April, and a rise of 92.1% year over year in March.- Japan’s rice prices have been in the spotlight in recent times, with the government releasing emergency stockpiles to moderate the price of the country’s staple food.- The surge in rice prices comes as Japan’s core inflation rate climbed to 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since January 2023.

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A parade of pausesWAR! Middle East at it againOracle earnings - wow!Tesla robotaxi spottedPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Look At Album Art - So bad Warm-Up- More pausing floated- We have a CHYNA deal - kind of- Saying goodbye to Brian Wilson- Tesla - back in buy modeMarkets- War! Middle East again (US seems to be helping ?)- Within 2% if ATH and then...- Oracle blows the roof off- UK economy shrinks - bigly***A NEW Closest to the Pin!Middle East Again- Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early Friday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran’s nuclear program, sparking market fears of a wider conflict.- Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country’s most senior military official, was killed during the strikes, alongside the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian state media reported.- The Israeli airstrikes also targeted and killed two of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to Iranian news outlets.- Odd timing?- Markets initially took it better than expected - until Iran stuck backValuations- As of the most recent update on June 5, 2025, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 21.70. This reflects a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and 25.20 one year ago, 10 -year average is about 19 PE Forward ChartSomething we discussed on TDI - Presidential Cycles- The U.S. stock market tends to follow a four-year cycle aligned with presidential terms. Historically, the first year of a president’s second term (4 years apart in this case) often mirrors the first year of a new presidency in terms of market behavior—marked by uncertainty, policy re-calibration, and sometimes muted performance- While the first half of the first year can be choppy due to post-election adjustments and early policy moves, the second half—especially Q4—has historically shown stronger performance. This is often attributed to: Stabilizing policy direction after early-year volatility Investor optimism around fiscal planning and budget cyclesSeasonal tailwinds like the holiday rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing Presidential Cycle UK Economy- This is why we need to dig further than the headline (more beneath the surface)- The U.K. economy shrank sharply in April as global trade tariffs and domestic tax rises kicked in, data showed Thursday.- The latest monthly growth figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% month on month in April, following growth of 0.2% in March.- It was also more than the 0.1% fall economists were expecting.- “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,”--- The real culprit:----- Domestic tax rises have also been blamed for the steep decline in economic activity. British businesses have been confronted with an increase in national insurance contributions and rise in the minimum age from the start of April, while a temporary tax break on property purchases also came to an end in March.- ----The change in the Stamp Duty Land Tax (paid when buying property or land) in April meant there was a decrease of 63.5% in U.K. residential property transactions from the previous month, the ONS noted, with buyers rushing to complete purchases before the tax break ended.US Economy- U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in...

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Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitementTrial Balloons - Next Fed Chair thoughtsExcitement over China talksPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterInteractive Brokers Warm-Up- Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair- Everyone loves to hate China these days- Trump and Musk breakup- Your DNA may be for saleMarkets- Retail shares have wide earnings outcomes- Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement- Excitement over China talks - Lutnik is showing the thumb-up- Who is buying?Powell Replacement- President Trump considering naming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026, according to Bloomberg- Just floating the idea (Trial balloon) at this point - YES!--- Proof - Wait 45 minutes:- White House official tells Reuters that Bloomberg reporting is "false" that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for Fed ChairChina - Everyone loves to hate- China’s May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment — worst drop since 2022- China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at its fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed Tuesday, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs.- The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since September last year. China EcoWho is Buying and Selling?- When President Donald Trump set off a global stock market slump in April with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, small investors across Asia rushed to the US stock market to buy the dip.-Retail investors in South Korea turned net sellers of US equities in May for the first time since before Trump’s election victory, while Japanese accounts became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds, according to official data.- The number of Singapore traders buying US stocks fell by a quarter in May from the previous period.Trump Musk Divorce (Mutual Assured Destruction)- Trump says Elon Musk went ‘CRAZY,’ suggests cutting government contracts for his companies- “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ”I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”- Trump wished Elon "very well" in a presser on Monday night- “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in the social media post.-- Musk fired back with pictures of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and backed impeachment- “I asked him to leave,” Trump claimed. Musk called that “an obvious lie.”- - - - Does either one of these guys know the truth from a lie?-- Telsa stock dove harder than Trump's ratings post election on the spatBUT BUT- Wasn't the point of hiring Musk and the DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse?- - Lots of positive thoughts on the job he was doing- Now that he found waste in the Big Beautiful Bill - he is banished???Palantir CEO- CEO Alex Karp said the artificial intelligence arms race between the U.S. and China will culminate in one country coming out on top.- “My general bias on AI is it is dangerous,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “There are positive and negative consequences, and either we win or China will win.”- Either way - Palantir wins - right?Select Retail

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Set your clock - must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposedSomeone wants the Fed Chair jobTACO FAFO and more...More muddy AI cover artPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- Must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed- Someone wants the Fed Chair job- TACO FAFO and more...- More muddy AI cover artMarkets- YUGE move for markets- Tariffs reinstated by Appeals court - for now- Hope for a spending bill - SPENDING BILLS- Retailers still worried - apparel stores not happyMore tariffs- President Donald Trump told U.S. steelworkers on Friday that he will double tariffs on steel imports to 50%.- “We’re going to bring it from 25% to 50%, the tariffs on steel into the United States of America,” Trump said during remarks at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. The president said the steep tariffs would “further secure the steel industry.”- “At 25%, they can sort of get over that fence,” Trump said. “At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence.”- Shares of mining company Cleveland-Cliffs popped roughly 22% following the announcement, while Steel Dynamics jumped more than 13% and Nucor was up more than 12%Tariffs- Court Strikes them down - something we discussed a bit on the legality of tariffs in the way they were impose to begin with- Appeals court reinstates temporarily- Did you see Howard Lutnik? Like putty in Trump hands, saying how Trump will win, he always wins, he is such a winner, no one can negotiate like Trump - on and one in a press conference.Economic Downtick- The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.- “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 ... on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.- It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026Big Month- NASDAQ up 9.6% for May- S&P 500 up 6%- Some calling it a Bear Market Bounce- Valuations getting toward top end again- Breath is poor again - BIG Names pulling most up- Tech was big driver in May- Best month for S&P 500 since November 2023Someone Looking to Be Appointed- Kevin Warsh (Brown Nose Warsh) Says Fed Officials Shouldn’t Be ‘Pampered Princes,’ Defends Trump’s Criticism of the Bank- Leading name for the next Fed Chair- defended the president’s right to criticize the central bank, saying the Fed is too big and politically exposed.--- He is showing how political it can be with this kind of populist viewInflation Report- PCE moved to 2.1% on April (lower than expected)- Core inflation also was at 0.1% for the month though it was higher on an annual level at 2.5%.- Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase.- The savings rate surged to 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year.- Food prices fell 0.3% on the month while energy goods and services increased 0.5%. Shelter costs, which has been one of the most stubborn inflation components, increased 0.4%.-- Put all of that together - consumers are pulling backNew and Old Acronyms making waves- MEGA (Make Europe Great Again)- MAGA (Make America Go Away)- TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)- FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out)----It is used to capture the financial market's volatility and chaos that Trump's policymaking process has createdDell Earnings- Dell Technologies reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations, but the company beat on revenue and offered a stronger-than-expect...

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Waffles for the WinWorkarounds are the thing to avoid onerous tariffsInvestors starting to think that bark is worse than the bitePLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- Waffles for the Win- Workarounds are the thing- Learning about the First Sale RuleMarkets- 42 Days? And counting- Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite- US Steel Deal - WOW!- Fresh steam for speculation - lots of movementWaffling- What are your favorite way to eat waffles?- Friday - 50% on Europe - Blah Blah- 25% on Apple and every smartphone maker that brings in product to USA- Sunday - Delay the Europe tariffs until July 9th- Not sure where we are onResults- Markets swoon on the initial Europe Tariff announcement- Markets (Overnight Futures) Popped higher on the Waffle- Apple will look to eat and see a cut to margins ----- Surely Apple will promise to build plants in the US and slow role it to get some relief--- Apple recently announced a 250,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Houston that is expected to begin operations in 2026, indicating a timeline of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from announcement to production start (managed by Foxconn - manufacturing AI Driver ServersChina - Not bad- China’s industrial profits rose for a second straight month in April, with their growth improving despite U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures, thanks to Beijing’s measures aimed at supporting businesses.- Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% last month compared to a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in March.- In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors.Facts though first:- Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus in China, often called “iPhone City,” spans over 1.4 million square meters (15 million square feet) and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. Approx 80% of Apple's annual iPhone production)-- To replicate this in the U.S., Apple would likely need multiple facilities totaling 10–15 million square feet or more, depending on automation levels and vertical integration.First Sale Rule- Love this!-- The first sale rule has been around since 1988--- This is why markets/stocks/companies will always win- The “first sale rule” is a concept in U.S. customs law that allows importers to use the lowest cost of a good to calculate duties.- Under U.S. customs law, the first sale rule allows importers to base customs duties on the price of the initial transaction in a multi-tiered supply chain. Example scenario: A Chinese manufacturer sells a t-shirt to a Hong Kong vendor for $5. The Hong Kong vendor resells it to a U.S. retailer for $10. The U.S. retailer sells it to consumers for $40.- Using the first sale rule, the U.S. retailer can declare the $5 price for customs purposes, rather than the $10 resale price.- This approach reduces the duty owed by excluding the middleman’s markup.Asked AI to make easier to understand in an infographic AI Info-graphicBoeing Update- The U.S. Justice Department said Friday that it has reached a deal with Boeing- That will allow the aircraft maker to avoid prosecution over two crashes of its 737 Max planes that killed 346 people.- The non-prosecution agreement would allow Boeing, a major military contractor and top U.S. exporter, to avoid being labeled a felon.- The decision means Boeing won’t face trial as scheduled next month,

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The dreaded downgrade.Biden's health in the spotlight.The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factoryPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- The dreaded downgrade- Biden's health in the spotlight- Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory- China continues to stimulateMarkets- Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels- Stocks posting big gains for May- Bitcoin surges past $100k- Our debt load is untenable - great chart to considerThe Big Beautiful Bill- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.- The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.- The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.- The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government.- The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided.- The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000. USD DEBTMoody's- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns.- That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1- The first time since the initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change- Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process ---- maybe they are sending a message-"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.Market reaction- Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced- Bonds - long end moved.--- 30 yr treasuries up over 5%---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7%- Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futuresBessent reaction-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level.-"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies."- He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies- Is that right?China - Stimulating- China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth.- The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%.US Steel still in play- Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter.- Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.- There is a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then T...

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More Deals - So many deals! We are so Amazing with the Deals!- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!- Apple making moves - so smartPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals!- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!- Apple making moves - so smart- Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of theseMarkets- HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China- Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze- China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5?- Drug companies under pressure- Google update - Lots of headwindsAnnouncing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTPReconciliation BILL - Draft- House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.- It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.- Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.AI Diffusion Rule Repeal- Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors?- Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc...- Is this good news?Reality Bites- A quick weekend meeting and all good- 90 day pause- The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10%- The Art of the ????---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point.What Do We Do With this:- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior.- They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80% maybe- FAKE PROMISES, Fake News????China Shipments- China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month.- Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier- Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected)- China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.How Much?- In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports- The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April Income ReceivedInflation Update- Somehow, not moving (yet)- Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy,

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Good ECO/Markets = TrumpBad ECO/Markets - BidenCTP for Micron is underwayAI wins a horse raceNews from OmahaPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- Good ECO/Markets = Trump- Bad ECO/Markets - Biden- CTP for Micron is underway- AI wins a horse race- News from Omaha- India/Pakistan - India stikesMarkets- Some Earnings Color- S&P breaks it streak this week- KRI +4, +5 (Spearman +100)- Currency interventions happeningInteresting Timing- Skechers U.S.A., Inc. the third largest footwear company in the world, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, a global investment firm built on an owner-operator approach to long-term investing.- 3G gets discount as tariffs are softening price- Helped to move the other names in the space higherHeads I Win....- President Donald Trump took credit for the "good parts" of the economy in an exclusive interview with NBC News airing Sunday, but said that the "bad parts" are former President Joe Biden's economy.- "Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything, but I've only just been here for a little more than three months," Trump said.- "The tariffs have just started kicking in. ... The tariffs are going to make us rich. We're going to be a very rich country," he added.In terms of shortages:- "I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs – that's 11 years old – needs to have 30 dolls," Trump said.- "I'm just saying [children] don't need to have 30 dolls, they can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five," he added.- But, Mira Lago has 58 bedrooms, 33 bathrooms, a 29-foot-long (8.8 m) pietra dura marble-top dining table, 12 fireplaces, and three bomb shelters.---WHAT?Ford Earnings- Ford Motor beats by $0.14, misses on revs, co suspends FY25 guidance; says business is strong, adjusted EBIT tracking within prior guidance, excluding new tariff-related impacts- Based on what the company knows now, and its expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, the company estimates a net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 bln for full-year 2025. Given material near-term risks, co is suspending guidance.Block Earnings (Last week)- Revenue decreased about 3% from $5.96 billion a year earlier.- Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion from $2.09 billion a year earlier. That missed analysts' forecasts of $2.32 billion for the quarter.- Gross payment volume hit $56.8 billion, missing expectations of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount.- Stock plunges Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/Palantir Earnings- Palantir Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs above consensus- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $883.9 mln vs the $862.17 mln FactSet Consensus.- U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million.- U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter to $373 million.- Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $934-$938 mln vs. $899.44 mln FactSet Consensus.- Co raises guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $3.890-$3.902 bln vs. $3.75 bln FactSet Consensus. Raises adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.711 -- $1.723 billion.- Stock down- probably some profit taking as valuation is a bit stretchedKentucky Derby- AI Wins!- Sovereignty won the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in Louisville,

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Oh boy - Supply Chain Concerns again?Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?China factories shutting down.Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- Now Supply Chain Concerns- Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?- China factories shutting down- Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US- DONE DONE DONE - LutnickMarkets- Capital Raise - Big Boost - ELON- Economics - Big Week- Earnings - The big tech names are on tap- Berkshire annual meeting and earnings this weekendELON- Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported.- The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.- THIS: The artificial intelligence firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.- "This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI's advanced AI capability and expertise with X's massive reach."- ELON also says that he will be stepping back from DOGE and refocus on TESLAHAHA! FAV STORY!- Tesla reported a $97 million loss due to digital assets, the company’s Bitcoin holdings. In the fourth quarter, there was a gain of $270 million.- Tesla now excludes Bitcoin swings from its non-GAAP results. Tesla also backs out stock-based compensation from its adjusted numbers.- That means the Bitcoin gains were included in the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted results, and the losses weren’t included in the first-quarter adjusted results.- Tesla’s report states that the accounting switch was due to the “adoption of the new crypto assets standard.”Powell Under Fire - Update- All is good - no new discussions is helping keep a bid under marketsAre Talks Ongoing at ALL?- China says NO- US says YES- Which is it?DONE DONE DONE- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday teased that the Trump administration has reached its first trade deal, but said it was not fully finalized and declined to name the country involved.- “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” Lutnick told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.Unusual Winner- With consumer sentiment shrinking and concerns about recession- Travel companies are feeling the pinch - BUT, Travel insurance companies are cashing n on the Cancel for Any Reason Plans- People want to travel but are hesitant as they don't know what will be in the future - therefore buy travel insurance- No pure-play publicly traded stock-- Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection, NationwideAmazon White House- The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.- "This is hostile and political act by Amazon," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing.- "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" Leavitt asked.- Amazon spokesperson tells Washington Post putting tariff rates next to products "was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.- Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products.----- What is our take on this?Big Moves- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) today announced a long-term collaboration designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.

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CEOs Selling stockFed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDYUSD Weak - what are investors thinking?PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- Chaos - What next?- Rates - moving in the wrong direction again- USD Weak - what are investors thinking?- A moment for Pope Francis- CEOs - Selling stockMarkets- Markets have had it - Done with this nonsense- Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!- Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY- VIX - back above 30 again (~35)- HyperScalers - not so Hyper...Update One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)- We have a clear winner from all of the entries and will announce and play at end of the show - I think it is awesome!ECBThe Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate -- the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance -- is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.Powell Under Fire- President Trump says "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “too late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always too late and wrong.....Too Late should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!"- President Trump says he is "not happy" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell; says he thinks Mr. Powell would leave if he asks him to do so- Is he going to ask - will he leave????????- How will markets react?--- STOP THE PRESSES - Already did a 180 on that..."No intention of firing Powell"Flurry of Deal Comments Tuesday- As expected, most contradict the other- Confusion as to how long- general happy thoughts - nothing concrete- Markets reacted positively then came off highsPentagon in Chaos?- White House looking for a new Secretary of Defense, according to NPR- Will he now have a Podcast or go back to Fox and Friends?- Of course the White House press secretary is denyingSkinny Minny- Eli Lilly soaring after announcing positive late-stage trial results for its oral weight-loss and diabetes drug, orforglipron, paving the way for a possible launch by the end of 2025- Novo Nordisk is looking for FDA approval of their pill-form Wegovy weight loss medicationSome Eco- April Philadelphia Fed Index -26.4 vs. 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 12.5- March Building Permits 1.482 mln vs. 1.455 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.459 mln from 1.456 mln- March Housing Starts 1.324 mln vs. 1.418 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.494 mln for 1.501 mln- March Leading Indicators -0.7% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.2% from -0.3%IMF - Downgrades US ECO- The US growth forecast for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of uncertainty caused by trade tariffs.- Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF's estimate of 2.7% for the US in January.- The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a "significant slowdown" in global growth, the Fund predicts.NVDA- NVIDIA breaks below $100 as China-based rival Huawei reportedly preps updated AI chip for mass shipment- Last week, NVDA gapped lower after writing down its inventory by around $5.5 bln,

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If this wasn't idiotic it would be funnyPresident Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff OffWinning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!Earnings season rolls onPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up- If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny- President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off- Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!- Earnings season rolls on- Need a new CTP stockMarkets- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom- Stock markets slammed- President Trump discussing stocks- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs- VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)Nice end to the week!- Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming- Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade- Last week and the week before saw extreme movements- Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records)- At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility Wild RideVIX- Moving lower as things settle down a bit- This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever...- VIX moves lower as shocks expire- Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves--- Get in and out...Not Inflationary..(wink)- China increased tariffs to 125%- US Increased China tariffs to 145%--- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levelsTariffs- Are we sick of this discussion yet?- hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies."--- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts.- BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers.- Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday)Workaround- Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffsBoeing- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.Zero Day- Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.- Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded.- The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.NVDA - News Drop- Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.- The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.

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Bulls and Bears – (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear – will be interesting divergence)

End of the Month – End of The Quarter

Seasonality features the Bulls

Fed Limericks!

NET CTP ANNOUNCED!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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DONATIONS ?

Warm-Up
- Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)
- Strike Update - could be an issue
- Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran
- VP Debate tonight

Markets
- End of the Month - End of The Quarter
- Seasonality features the Bulls
- Good quarter - setting up for more gains?
- Question - Capital Gains??
- Inflation (PCE) Update

--- Fed Limericks ....And another AI generated CoverArt - what do you think?

ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC

Market Selling Off
- Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern
- VIX popped over 20 for a minute
- Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day

Inflation
- Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.

Euro Cars - Not Good
--- Blaming China....
- Stellantis on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China
- The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year.
- Stock down 8% on the news
- UK-based Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels.
- In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing.
- Stock down 43% YTD
- What about RACE, Ford and others?

China
- WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998?
- Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of:
---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum.
- China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.
-------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China.
-- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing....
-- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??)

Hang Seng

Interesting Tape
- Headline at 11:30am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post
- Oil is steady
- Markets turn positive
- VIX falls abit
- No fear of further escalation?

Asia
- Getting weird
- Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%, Australia stocks hit fresh all-time
- The moves in Japanese markets come as investors digest Shigeru Ishiba's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party elections last Friday. (Surprised markets)
- Ishiba’s selection forced investors to pare positions that had been built on speculation Takaichi would become Japan’s new prime minister and encourage the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low.

Nike
- NIKE prelim Q1 $0.70 vs $0.52 FactSet Consensus; revs $11.59 bln vs $11.64 bln
- Stock DOWN 6% after hours
- - Withdrawing FY2025 Guideance due to CEO transition - will provide quarterly
- Could be a good candidate for turnaround that gets combined with China story??
- NIKE beats by $0.18, reports revs in-line, North America revenue down 11%

Humana
- Humana selling off sharply, sinking to multi-year lows, after health insurer released new 2025 Medicare Advantage offerings this morning; At about 65% of total EBITDA, Medicare Advantage insurance is company's core business, so concerns that new offerings may cut into profits may be hitting shares

Strike Update
- A port strike on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico will go ahead starting on Tuesday, the International Longshoremen's Association union said
- President Joe Biden said he did not intend to intervene to prevent a walkout if dock workers failed to secure a new contract by an Oct. 1 deadline.
- What will be the impact of this... said that a 1-week strike will take 1-month to recover from...

Speculation Time
- What if .... Capital Gains at 28% Flat
- Bear case - end of year debacle - sell those big gainers to get ahead of the gains
- Bull case = then buy back after wash rule expires 30 days?

Fed - Can't Stop the Jabber
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) open to larger rate cut in November if job growth weakens faster than expected, according to Reuters

Interference
- You wrote an interesting piece on substack
- More Google-Related Election Shenanigans
- https://dvorak.substack.com/p/more-google-related-election-shenanigans

AI Safety Bill
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday vetoed a hotly contested artificial intelligence safety bill, after the tech industry raised objections, saying it could drive AI companies from the state and hinder innovation.
- What do we know about this?
--- Is the reason for the VETO simply money ?
- Newsom said he had asked leading experts on Generative AI to help California "develop workable guardrails" that focus "on developing an empirical, science-based trajectory analysis." He also ordered state agencies to expand their assessment of the risks from potential catastrophic events tied to AI use.

More AI
- OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, expects about $5 billion in losses on $3.7 billion in revenue this year,
- The company generated $300 million in revenue last month, up 1,700% since the beginning of last year, and expects to bring in $11.6 billion in sales next year, according to a person close to OpenAI who asked not to be named because the numbers are confidential.
- OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, is currently pursuing a funding round that would value the company at more than $150 billion

Along with Middle East - Now Putin Comments ...
--- So much bad news is being ignored - sign of healthy bull market or complacency?
- President Vladimir Putin has drawn a "red line" for the United States and its allies by signalling that Moscow will consider responding with nuclear weapons if they allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia with long-range Western missiles.
- Seriously?

Deja vu
- A Massachusetts woman pleaded guilty on Friday to running a high-end brothel network in the greater Boston area and the suburbs of Washington that served wealthy and well-connected clientele including politicians, corporate executives, lawyers and military officers.
- Han Lee appeared in Boston federal court to plead guilty to charges that she conspired to persuade, induce and entice primarily Asian women to travel to Massachusetts and Virginia to engage in prostitution and committed money laundering.
- Prosecutors say clients paid $350 to $600 per hour for sexual encounters with women featured on two websites that advertised nude models for professional photography as a front for Han Lee's prostitution business, which had operated since at least 2020.

Wallet Voting??
- Netflix saw a dramatic spike in cancellations after its co-founder Reed Hastings revealed he donated $7 million to Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign, according to a report.
- Cancellations on the streaming platform almost tripled in the United States after Hastings made the massive donation to a super PAC supporting Harris' presidential bid, Bloomberg reported, citing the researcher Antenna.
- Supporters of former President Trump called on conservatives to cancel their subscriptions after Hastings endorsed Harris on X and revealed the large sum of his donation in July.
- Stock did not budge....

In Closing
- Sad day:
- Kris Kristofferson, who became one of the most influential American singer-songwriters of his time with works such as "Me and Bobby McGee," as well as becoming a successful actor, died Saturday at the age of 88, according to a family statement.
- Kristofferson was born in Brownsville, Texas, on June 22, 1936, and moved frequently because his father was a general in the Air Force. After graduating from Pomona College in California, where he played football and rugby, Kristofferson attended Oxford University on a Rhodes scholarship and then fulfilled the family tradition by joining the Army.

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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

The Fed tries to keep things in line,
But often they're missing the sign.
With rates up and down,
They baffle the town,
And leave markets far from divine!
JCD Score (A)

Jay Powell, he gives it a go,
But sometimes the signals are slow.
With rates up and down,
He puzzles the town,
As he loves to put on a show.
JCD Score (C)

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Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)

Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast – Natural gas prices jump

COVID Shot Stocks – “fun” while it lasted

Confidence is waning…..

CHINA!

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Warm-Up
- Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)
- Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump
- COVID Stocks - "fun" while it lasted
- Confidence is waning.....
- CHINA! Bazooka Time!

Markets
- All-Time Highs - Same saying Goldilocks conditions
- Seasonality favors the bulls starting next quarter
- Uranium starting to move as people warming up to nuclear energy again
- Trump Stock on the move

Need to Pick a new CTP

Exile
- A leading economist in China has vanished following critical comments about President Xi Jinping‘s economic policies.
- What Happened: Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was detained after allegedly criticizing Xi in a private WeChat group. Zhu’s remarks reportedly included veiled criticisms of Xi’s leadership and comments on China’s struggling economy, reported The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
- The investigation into Zhu coincides with the Chinese Communist Party’s intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the country’s economic health. Under Xi, dissent has been increasingly punished, with critics facing imprisonment or exile.
- AH would be have cement shoes if this happened in the USA

On The Other Hand - CHINA PROP IT UP- China said it will allow institutional investors to tap central bank financing for stock purchases and is weighing plans for a market stabilization fund, sparking the biggest rally since 2020 for the nation’s beaten-down equities.
- The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities
- The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, surged 4.3% to cap its best day since July 2020. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares was up more than 5% intraday.
- MCHI up 8%, FXI up 8.5%, YINN (3X) up 25%

M&A FOLLOW UP
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- NEWS: Collaboration software maker Smartsheet on Tuesday announced it would be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in an all-cash deal which valued the company at $8.4 billion.

THE FED
- Cuts rates by 0.50%
-- Seems to have been looking to appease markets
- Initial reaction was blah... Unwinding of positions put on right before the decision
- Next day stocks soared
- “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said.
- Last time Fed cut rates was COVID days , time before that was Financial Crisis of 2008
- The federal funds rate is now a range between 4.75%-5%

Meanwhile
- Consumer confidence in September suffers largest decline since August 2021
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' views of the current labor market situation continued to soften and became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions -- a sentiment that could weigh on consumer spending activity.
---- The Present Situation Index dropped to 124.3 from an upwardly revised 134.6 (from 134.4) in August.
------ The Expectations Index declined to 81.7 from an upwardly revised 86.3 (from 82.5) in August.
-------Average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 5.2% from an upwardly revised 5.0% (from 4.9%) in August.

Confidence

Boeing Playing Hardball
- Boeing’s CFO Brian West earlier this week said the company would freeze hiring and raises to cut costs, and would let “non-essential contractors” go temporarily.
- The cost-cutting measures come after more than 30,000 Boeing machinists turned down a contract and voted to strike.
- Boeing provided a BEST AND FINAL Offer on Monday
- Boeing had offered a 25% raise and the union endorsed the tentative contract - but they wanted more like 40%

Another Casualty
- Tupperware Brands filed for bankruptcy protection in Delaware late on Tuesday, succumbing to mounting losses due to poor demand for its once popular colorful food storage containers.
- No more Tupperware parties? (Popularized in the 1950s)
- The company has $812 million in debt, much of which was purchased by distressed debt investors at a deep discount in July, according to court filings. Those new lenders had sought to use their debt position to seize Tupperware assets including its intellectual property such as its brand, pushing to the company to seek bankruptcy protection, Tupperware said.
- Is there really any intellectual property that is worth anything there with all of the other brands these days?

Big $$$ Coming In
- BlackRock and Microsoft plan to launch a more than $30 billion fund to invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure to build data centers and energy projects, the companies said on Tuesday.
- The investment vehicle, known as Global AI Infrastructure Investment Partnership, aims to help enhance AI supply chains and energy sourcing, BlackRock and Microsoft said.
- The partnership will mobilize up to $100 billion in total investment potential when including debt financing, the companies said.

More Power
- They're planning to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to power Microsoft's cloud and AI data centers
- Nuclear (something we talked about months ago that would be needed for Datacenters/AI)
- Constellation Energy (CEG) up 125% YTD gets nice boost on this news
- - Restating - Utilities are not only going up as rate have been going down......
-- -HOWEVER - After refurbishing it and obtaining the necessary federal and state approvals, Constellation hopes to have TMI-Unit 1 operating by 2028
- - - Planning on adding approximately 835 megawatts of carbon-free energy to the grid

Fedex Earning
- Abysmal - comes in way low and guidance is not good at all
- Stock drops 14%
- Trading close to no change for 2024

M&A
- Weird - all of a sudden lot happening at Intel
- Qualcomm approached Intel about a takeover in recent days, according to a person familiar with the matter.
--- Qualcomm for Intel - does that make sense?
-- The deal would likely face intense regulatory scrutiny, particularly from antitrust regulators, given the size and market influence of both companies.
- Intel down 50% YTD
- Company getting all sorts of deals from CHIPS Act and now
--- Apollo Global Management Inc. has offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel Corp., people familiar with the matter said, providing the chipmaker with a vote of confidence in its turnaround strategy and an alternative to a potential takeover by larger rival Qualcomm Inc.

Drug Companies in the Crosshairs
- The Federal Trade Commission on Friday sued three large U.S. health companies that negotiate insulin prices, arguing the drug middlemen boost their profits while “artificially” inflating costs for patients.
- The suit targets the three biggest so-called pharmacy benefit managers, UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Rx, CVS Health’s Caremark and Cigna’s Express Scripts, and their affiliated group purchasing organizations.
- The FTC may also recommend suing insulin manufacturers Eli Lilly, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk in the future.
- The PBM are going to be in trouble as these are seen as the reason for many of the massive drug price issues. (Middleman created to help with prices ended uop just making out like bandits for themselves - that will be the rationale and political take)

DJT Stock on the Move
- The wrong way
- New Post IPO/SPAC LOW as selling window opens (Selling restrictions lifted)
- Trump, whose stake in Trump Media is now worth roughly $1.4 billion, said on Sept. 13 he did not plan to sell his shares, turning the focus to other major stakeholders who could cash out.

New Highs for META
- Stock seen as a major winner from AI -
- Not because of what it can do for you - what is can do for the advertisers of META
- Up nearly 4 fold from the low in 2022

Moderna
- Stock in downtrend since August 2021
- Stock at sameprice as it was back in October 2020 after peaking close to $48- per share (now $64)
- What happened to the breakthroughs?
- Good lesson here...

MPOX Update
- Nearly 30,000 suspected mpox cases have been reported in Africa so far this year, most of them in Democratic Republic of Congo where tests have run out, the World Health Organization said on Monday.
- Stocks related GOVX, SIGA, EBS (Stocks still stuck in nowhereville)

Home Prices
- Hit an ATH - Case Shiller
- Pace of growth slowing

A Few Thousand Days
- Open AI CEO Sam Altman says the world could be just "a few thousand days" from creating an artificial "superintelligence."
- "This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there," Altman wrote.

DOJ on Visa
- The U.S. Justice Department on Tuesday sued Visa , the world’s biggest payments network, saying it propped up an illegal monopoly over debit payments by imposing “exclusionary” agreements on partners and smothering upstart firms.
- More than 60% of debit transactions in the U.S. run over Visa rails, helping it charge more than $7 billion annually in processing fees, according to the DOJ complaint.
-

In Closing - NICE!
- CEO Jensen Huang just wrapped up the sale of six million shares of the chip maker, completing a trading plan he adopted earlier in the year—and grossing more than $700 million.

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Best week in a long time – markets popping!

Cats and Dogs – all anyone can talk about these days – DogCat Bounce anyone?

More back to work directives ….

Apple disappointing again.

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Warm Up
- Best week in a long time - markets popping!
- Cats and Dogs - all anyone can talk about these days - DogCat Bounce anyone?
- More back to work directives ....
- Apple disappointing again
- All of a sudden - Now the Biden-Harris administration

Market Update- BIG week of central bank rate decisions
- Rotation - still a big item keeping markets in check
- Rates LOW - bond traders overconfident?
- Oil comes back after miserable 2 weeks
- TrumpCoin?

Central Banks
- The Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated two-day meeting, which gets underway Tuesday, is poised to take center stage.
- Elsewhere, Brazil’s central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on Wednesday.
- The Bank of England, Norway’s Norges Bank and South Africa’s Reserve Bank will all follow on Thursday.
- Bank of Japan will provide its rate decision Friday
--- Markets getting a bit more volatile ahead of this Fed rate decision

BACK TO WORK!
- Amazon is instructing corporate staffers to spend five days a week in the office, CEO Andy Jassy wrote in a memo on Monday.
- The decision marks a significant shift from Amazon’s earlier return-to-work stance, which required corporate workers to be in the office at least three days a week. Now, the company is giving employees until Jan. 2 to start adhering to the new policy.

One Day Later
- Oracle provide some really nice earnings and guidance that the market loved... (Discussed last week)
- A day later:
--- Oracle now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, around $1.5 billion more than analysts had expected.
---- Capital spending also will increase.
------The company plans for over $104 billion in revenue in the 2029 fiscal year.
- Odd that this was the next day
- Stock up 55% - 2nd best of tech companies just behind Nvdia
- Larry is now 2d richest person in the world behind Elon Musk

Economics
- August Retail Sales 0.1% vs -0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 1.1% from 1.0%
- August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior unrevised at 0.4%
- August Industrial Production 0.8% vs 0.1% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to -0.9% from -0.6%
- August Capacity Utilization 78.0% vs 77.9% Briefing.com Consensus; prior revised to 77.4% from 77.8%
--- Generally economy is speeding up again and looks like signs that manufacturing may be picking up

More Issues
- This is a bad apple
- The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), a top banking regulator in the United States, said on Thursday it has issued an enforcement action against Wells Fargo due to deficiencies in its risk management practices.
- There will be no penalties - but company is still in the penalty box due to past issues

China Apple
- Online retailers in China have slashed the prices of Apple’s new iPhone 16 series ahead of its official release, as consumers in the world’s largest smartphone market hold out for the release of the US company’s first on-device artificial intelligence (AI) software.
- They are blaming this on the delay of any significant AI features

Intel Gets $$$
- The Biden-Harris Administration announced today that Intel Corporation has been awarded up to $3 bln in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act for the Secure Enclave program. The program is designed to expand the trusted manufacturing of leading-edge semiconductors for the U.S. government.
- The Secure Enclave program builds on previous projects between Intel and the Department of Defense such as Rapid Assured Microelectronics Prototypes - Commercial and State-of-the-Art Heterogeneous Integration Prototype. As the only American company that both designs and manufactures leading-edge logic chips, Intel will help secure the domestic chip supply chain and collaborate with the DoD to help enhance the resilience of U.S. technological systems by advancing secure, cutting-edge solutions.

Apple
- The next upgrade cycle is going to be HUGE they said
= Could be a GENERATIONAL Upgrade cycle they said
- Monday update: Apple (AAPL -3%) is exhibiting weakness today after estimated pre-orders for the newest iPhone reflect softer-than-anticipated demand. Apple unveiled its latest iPhone models last week, including the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max
- iOS 18 is now available, bringing iPhone users around the world new ways to personalize their iPhone with deeper customization to the Home Screen and Control Center; the biggest-ever redesign to Photos, making it even easier to find and relive special moments; and major enhancements to Messages and Mail. Starting next month, iOS 18 will introduce Apple Intelligence, the personal intelligence system that combines the power of generative models with personal context to deliver intelligence that is incredibly useful and relevant while protecting users' privacy and security.

This...
- Former President Trump on Monday is expected to announce the launch of a new cryptocurrency project that would be led by his two oldest sons.
- Trump's crypto platform will be called World Liberty Financial and will be formally unveiled at 8 p.m. ET by the former president at an event at his Mar-a-Lago residence that will be broadcast on X Spaces.
- "We're embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind," Trump said in a video posted to social media platform X on Thursday.
- The former president and his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have been promoting the project on social media in recent weeks in advance of the platform's launch
- Crypto news outlet CoinDesk obtained excerpts of a draft white paper describing the project, which noted that the former president's 18-year-old son, Barron, is listed as the project's "DeFi visionary."

Here is the issue:
- Genetic testing company 23andMe has agreed to pay $30 million to settle a class action lawsuit from customers impacted by a 2023 data breach when hackers accessed the personal data of millions of users on the platform.
- The complaint accused 23andMe of failing to adequately protect users' information and failing to sufficiently notify users of the breach, as well as other claims. The company denied any wrongdoing as part of the settlement agreement.
- One of reasons AH will not use this kind of service
- Get your payout of you used service and qualify!

Workers MAD
- Boeing's new CEO moved into his new home in Seatle a little over a month after being names CEO
- Cost $4.1M
- The home is 4,180 square feet and sits on a 9,217 square foot lot.
- Ortberg's move comes as tens of thousands of Boeing factory workers went on strike this week after 96% of union members rejected a new contractor offer.
- Workers on strike mad that since the CEO has the money to buy that big of a house - they can pony up the money to pay the increased wages that are being demanded.
- One of the main demands from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers' Union (IAM) is a 40% pay raise.
- In response: Boeing is freezing hiring and weighing temporary furloughs to cut costs as a strike by more than 30,000 workers entered its fourth day on Monday

Home Depot
- Home Depot is being ordered to pay nearly $2 million to settle a civil claim from California district attorneys that the company overcharged customers for products.
- According to Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón, the retailer allegedly "engaged in false advertising and unfair competition" because it charged customers prices higher than the lowest advertised or posted price.
- This type of offense, known as a "scanner violation," occurs when the price on the item or on the item’s shelf tag does not match the universal product code that's scanned at the point-of-sale device or register, according to Gascón.

HIRING!
- Discount grocer Aldi is boosting its staff for the holiday season with plans to hire more than 13,000 store and warehouse workers.
- Along with boosting its workforce, the grocer announced that it will continue adding new stores across the U.S. while it simultaneously prepares for the busy shopping period.
- To entice applicants, the company also announced that it's raising the national average hourly pay too.
---???? Are they expecting a rush to buy baked beans as gifts this holiday season?
-- Also, sounds good for the holiday season - truth is that they have been working on expanding footprint for some time and the hiring has nothing to do with the holidays.

M&A
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- The private-equity firms are discussing an offer of around $56 per share for Smartsheet, the sources said, adding that the deal could be signed in the coming weeks assuming there are no last-minute snags.
- Smartsheet is a software as a service offering for collaboration and work management, developed and marketed by Smartsheet Inc. It is used to assign tasks, track project progress, manage calendars, share documents, and manage other work, using a tabular user interface.
- Thought this was going to be a buyout candidate one day - but by a tech firm - P/E going to gut this and sell when costs under control

Banks
- Stress test - all pass with flying colors
- The largest U.S. banks said on Friday evening that they would increase payouts to investors in moves that were generally expected after lenders sailed through the Federal Reserve’s stress tests this week—but the firms’ capital plans remain closely watched each year.

Good news!
- Red Lobster exits chapter 11 bankruptcy
- The Orlando, Florida-based chain, which lost $76 million in 2023, shuttered dozens of its North American restaurants over recent months
- Red Lobster is now an independent, privately-held company with 545 restaurant locations in 44 states and four Canadian provinces.

WIFI in The Air
- United will start testing Starlink’s satellite Wi-Fi on its flights early next year.
- SpaceX has previously signed deals with Hawaiian Airlines and semi-private airline JSX.
- Delta and other carriers have been investing in faster inflight Wi-Fi and offering it for free.
- United Airlines said Friday that it plans to offer inflight Wi-Fi for free using Starlink from Elon Musk’s SpaceX on its hundreds of jetliners, the biggest inflight internet deal yet for the satellite service provider.

Is this a concern?
- Hundreds of handheld pagers exploded near simultaneously across Lebanon and in parts of Syria on Tuesday, wounding members of the militant group Hezbollah, the Iranian ambassador and dozens of other people. Officials pointed the finger at Israel in what appeared to be a sophisticated, remote attack at a time of rising tensions across the Lebanon border.
- How can these be allowed on airplanes if they can be remotely detonated?

Egg Prices
- On the rise again
- CalMaine (CALM) comes up with good earnings and outlook
- 50% increase in prices over the past year
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111

Closing - What is our bet on the Fed Decision tomorrow?
- 0.0%
- 0.25%
- 0.50%

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August ends on the high side – (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)

Rate cut bets are in place

Market very skittish – September not the best month on average

VIX hits 25 last week

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Warm Up
- Another Rough Start to the month
- Apple Event - market was
- Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that!
- DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule

Market Update- August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)
- Rate cut bets are in place
- Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
- VIX hits 25 last week
- Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved
- YIELD CURVE UPDATE

Big News
- Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's
- Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened in 2001 and 2008

Apple Event
- Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design.
- Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area.
- The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra.
- Display will be 40% brighter.
- Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9.
- Background noise will be surprised on phone calls.
- Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them.
- Adding translate application.
-Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles.
- Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea.
- Starts at $399.
- A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday

More Apple
- Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland.
- The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades.
- So is this final this time?
- How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc....

Apple Competition
- Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per)
- Have you seen this?
- VERY COOL device

Palantir
- Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500
- +15% on the news

Dell
- Dell also is added to the S&P 500
- Etsy and American Airlines out

Tech - Oracle Earnings
- Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook
- Missed on EPS
- Partnering with Amazon
- The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud.
- Stock at ATH

NVDA
- WORST DAY EVER for a stock
- Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day.
- New DOJ probe in anti-trust case
- The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips.
- Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates.

Best Buy
- People are buying...
- Raising full year guidance
- Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier.
--- It is all about the expectations...

Glasses - Again?
- Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone
- Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology.
- This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out there right now as opposed to over the head from Meta and Apple

Goldman Sachs
- Goldman Sachs will post a roughly $400 million pretax hit to third-quarter results as the bank continues to unwind its ill-fated consumer business.
- Goldman is instead focusing on asset and wealth management to help drive growth.
- CEO David Solomon said Monday at a conference that by unloading Goldman's GM Card business, as well as a separate portfolio of loans, the bank would post a hit to revenues when it reports results next month.
- Stock down $20 or 4%

Debate
- Thoughts on if this one will dramatically change the race (like the last one)
- Fact checkers already in a tizzy about what to expect and how it will be spun
- Inflation and costs will be near the top
- Border security and foreign policy havd to be in the mix
- Thoughts on how this could impact markets?

Econ
- Payrolls - grew but less than expected
- Unemployment Rate dropped back to 4.2%
- The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.
- 142,000 new jobs added.
- The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.
- Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
--- CPI and PPI due Wednesday and Thursday

China Econ
- China on Monday reported the consumer price index rose 0.6% year on year.
- Retail sales rose by just 2.7% in July from a year ago
- Major deflationary pressure in China - total mess

US Steel Saga
- The Biden administration told Nippon Steel in a letter on Saturday its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry, three people said, adding to evidence the U.S. is poised to block it.
- Stock drops hard
- The deal faces opposition from numerous Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris saying on Monday she wants U.S. Steel to remain "American owned and operated." Her Republican rival Donald Trump has pledged to block the deal if elected.Oil

OIL
- Biden Administration buying for the SPR
- Cracked below $66 today - down from $76 end of August
- Middle East and Russia no longer a concern?
- China slowdown and global slowdown cracking commodities?
- Updated OPEC projections out today: "The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 2.0 mb/d, which is still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This minor adjustment of 80 tb/d reflects mainly actual data received year-to-date."

NFTs
- Crypto marketplace OpenSea has been added to the SEC's list of targets, as the regulator extends its crackdown on the sector.
- What took so long?
- The company's CEO said in a post on X on Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a Wells notice against OpenSea.
- The letter, according to the OpenSea chief, alleges that the nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, sold on its platform are securities. OpenSea is a popular platform that allows users to create, sell and buy NFTs.

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A show dedicated to the many questions of our listeners.

We focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds, contrasting and comparing the differences.

Financial Literacy is not just one month a year!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Talking Financial Literacy

We are going to discuss details of what an ETF is and the differences from those investment vehicles and mutual funds.

ETFs are investment funds that trade on stock exchanges, holding a diversified portfolio.
ETFs offer instant diversification by allowing investors to buy a small slice of a variety of assets.
ETFs trade like stocks, with prices fluctuating throughout the trading day.
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Path Change – Once the air clears, how will markets react?

Cracking down on excessive “junk” fees

Cracking down on Unfree Speech?

Jackson Hole – big update about “The Path”

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Warm Up
-Cracking down on excessive "junk" fees
- Cracking down on Unfree Speech?
- Jackson Hole - big update about "The Path"
- Intel is nervous

Market Update- Lower End Consumers Fueling Spend
- Big news this week - NVDA earnings
- Rotation ? Consumers are still spending (Discounters loving it!)
- Taxing Unrealized Gains?

Political rhetoric
- Taxing Unrealized gains - questions coming in
--- Realize this is for the ultra-rich and the potential to get this passed is not high
- BUT - Harris campaign wants to see about higher taxes - which are needed, but not a good thing
----- How else are we going to pay back this mountain of debt?

Jackson Hole
- Time to Change the Path of Rates
- Powell was clear and they are now pricing in a 100% probability of a 0.25% rate cut for September
- 0.50% will probably scare some people - so 0.25% is plan
- Odd ahead of election - but maybe Powell realizes he is behind the curve

Target
- Against the odds?
- Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and revenue expectations on Wednesday.
- Sales at the discounter grew as shoppers made more visits to Target’s stores and website and bought more discretionary items like clothing.
- Yet, the retailer struck a cautious note, saying it expects comparable sales for the full year to be in the lower range of its guidance.
- Target raised its profit guidance, however, saying it expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $9 to $9.70, up from the previous range of $8.60 and $9.60.
- Investors loved it! Stock moved from $135 - $169 on the news (back to $158)
---- Walmart near ATH and Ross Stores stock at ATH

SpaceX - Boeing
- So embarrassing for Boeing...
- Starliner is going to come back - Unmanned...
- Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, will return to Earth on a SpaceX vehicle early next year

Telegram
- Telegram messaging app CEO Durov arrested in France
- Pavel Durov, the Russian-born billionaire founder and owner of the Telegram messaging app, was arrested at Le Bourget airport outside Paris shortly after landing on a private jet late on Saturday and placed in custody.
- Free speech under fire? Or is this more than just a Twitter alternative.
- Supposedly 900M Daily Active users???

Junk Fees
- FTC trying to crack down on "junk fees"
- Last year, 15% of restaurant owners added surcharges or fees to checks because of higher costs, according to the National Restaurant Association
- Inflation fee, credit card fee, health-care fee, house fee
- Restaurants are fighting back as they want the fees to add to bottom line and increase profitability and benefit staff.
- Makes the entire idea of going out to eat an expensive proposition.

What is this?
- Microsoft said Friday it will hold a conference in September for cybersecurity firms to discuss ways the industry can evolve following a faulty CrowdStrike software update that caused millions of Windows computers to crash in July.
- Microsoft will meet with CrowdStrike and other security companies at its campus in Redmond, Washington, on Sept. 10 to discuss how to prevent similar issues in the future
--- Wasn't this already something that was not supposed to happen?
- The executive said participants at the Windows Endpoint Security Ecosystem Summit will explore the possibility of having applications rely more on a part of Windows called user mode instead of the more privileged kernel mode.
- Software from CrowdStrike Check Point, SentinelOne and others in the endpoint-protection market currently depend on kernel mode.

Apple
- Planning an even on September 9th
- Apple iPhone 16 reveal?
- Any major updates or incremental again?
- Is this going to be the generational refresh cycle the analysts are so excited about?

More Apple
- Apple announced Monday that it will replace Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri on Jan. 1 with Kevan Parekh, Apple’s current vice president of financial planning and analysis.
- Maestri will continue to lead teams focusing on IT, security and real estate development, Apple said.
- Maestri was named Apple CFO in 2014.

Intel - Getting Cold Sweats
- Intel is working with advisors including Morgan Stanley to help defend itself against activist investors, according to people familiar with the matter, as CEO Pat Gelsinger attempts to turn around the struggling chipmaker.
- While Intel has faced activist pressure in the past, no new campaign has been formally launched and it isn't clear if an activist investor has been in contact with the company's board.

More Earnings
- CAVA ("the next CMG")
- Earnings per share: 17 cents vs. 13 cents expected
- Revenue: $233 million vs. $220 million expected
- The Mediterranean restaurant chain reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $19.7 million, or 17 cents per share, up from $6.5 million, or 21 cents per share, a year earlier.
- Net salesclimbed 35% to $233 million. The company's same-store sales rose 14.4%
-- Ever Eat there?
-- MORE - Cava Group (CAVA) tumbled Tuesday after CEO Brent Schulman and several key executives and directors disclosed sales of Cava stock in the wake of the Mediterranean-themed restaurant chain's post-earnings spike to record highs.

Peleton - Shares move..
- Earnings and things looked less dire
- Stock up 30% since lows - still off > $90% since all-time-high

AI
- Anthropic, the Amazon-backed artificial intelligence startup, on Monday was hit with a class-action lawsuit in California federal court over alleged copyright infringement. Three authors said in the filing that Anthropic "built a multibillion-dollar business by stealing hundreds of thousands of copyrighted books," including their own.
- Authors Andrea Bartz, Charles Graeber and Kirk Wallace Johnson alleged in the lawsuit that "an essential component of Anthropic's business model — and its flagship 'Claude' family of large language models (or 'LLMs')— is the largescale theft of copyrighted works," later alleging that "Anthropic downloaded known pirated versions of Plaintiffs' works, made copies of them, and fed these pirated copies into its models."
- "Copyright law prohibits what Anthropic has done here: downloading and copying hundreds of thousands of copyrighted books taken from pirated and illegal websites," the lawsuit states.
- If this happens - what about the rest of the stolen blog posts, books, writings that were used to build other LLM's??

AI - NVDA
- Earnings exprected after the close on Wednesday
- FactSet EPS consensus: 0.65
- FactSet Rev consensus: 28.72 bln
- Any big news out of company on lower guidance due to delay of Blackwell chip may be an issue
- - Some talk about slowing demand of chips due to datacenter issues with electric grid (some areas of country)

Meaningful?
- Monday Morning - Key Reversal Indicator hits +6
- Came in as markets faded throughout the day on Monday
- last time was June 2020 -reversal came in 2 days of about 5%

Crude Oil
- Rangebound
- But escalations in the Mid-East pushed prices up 3% 0n new news
- Bottom end $72ish - top end $80ish

Icahn
- Shares of billionaire investor Carl Icahn's Icahn Enterprises closed at a more than 20-year low on Monday after the firm said it will sell up to $400 million depository units through an "at-the-market" offering program.
-The stock dropped as much as 14.3% to $13.62, the lowest since November 2003, but pared losses to close down 11.5% at $14.07, the weakest since February 2004.
- Has been at the center of a short-seller hit job (looks like they were right)
- In a regulatory filing, the company said it intends to use net proceeds from the offering to fund potential acquisitions and for company purposes.

CEO Money
- Former Peloton chief executive John Foley says his fortune has dried up, two years after his departure from the high-end fitness company he co-founded.
- "Oh I’m an open book," the former billionaire told The New York Post in an interview. "You know, at one point I had a lot of money on paper. Not actually [in the bank], unfortunately. I’ve lost all my money. I’ve had to sell almost everything in my life."
- The former Peloton chief said he still spends his summer weekends in the Hamptons, although he has downsized twice, including unloading his $55 million oceanfront estate in East Hampton.

Inflation - Not Really Dead
- Cash Shiller Numbers out today - NEW ALL TIME HIGH
- Prices nationally were 5.4% higher than June 2023.
- New York saw the highest annual gain among the top 20 cities, with prices increasing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively.
- Portland, Oregon saw just a 0.8% annual increase in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.

Liquidity Event
- NFL owners voted on Tuesday to allow select private equity firms to invest at up to 10% of a team stake.
- The initial firms include Ares Management, Sixth Street Partners and Arctos Partners as well as a group that includes Dynasty Equity, Blackstone, Carlyle Group, CVC Capital Partners and Ludis.
- The NFL is the last major sports league to allow private equity investment as rising valuations make it harder for owners to buy in.

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Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week)

Live Nation is in trouble

Icahn get a slap on the wrist

Gold – ripping – where to next?

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Warm Up
- Jackson Hole ECO Confab (this week)
- Live Nation is in trouble
- Icahn get a slap on the wrist
- Gold - ripping - where to next?
- Price Controls - 3rd Rail?

Market Update- Nearing all-time highs again - Buy the Dips!
- Yields under 4% on 10-Year - Yen still in control
- Back to Overbought again - still thinking not out of the woods
- Lowe's and Home Depot Outlook - POOR (But stocks are up)

Jackson Hole
- Aristocrats line up to speak
- Big doings as often a platform for Fed and other central bankers to make policy adjustments
- Powell scheduled to speak at 10am Friday
--- With all of the latest data and market push - what will he do??
- Before that - Wednesday we will see the July FOMC minutes

GOLDDDDDDDD
- Gold hit all-time high last Friday ($2,509.65) !!!!NOW $2,563!!!!!
- WHY? Discussion ranges from Fed Reserve, Election, Middle East, India Buying....
- Gold has been a better GOLD then Bitcoin - just saying...

Monopoly - Finally!
- Ten Additional States Join Justice Department’s Suit Against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for Monopolizing Markets Across the Live Concert Industry
- Today, the Attorneys General of Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Utah and Vermont joined a civil antitrust lawsuit filed by the Justice Department, 29 other states and the District of Columbia against Live Nation-Ticketmaster for monopolization and other unlawful conduct in violation of Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act.
- Stock does not seem to care - or believe anything adverse will happen

AMD buys ZT Systems
- $4.9 Billion
- What is ZT Systems? The company engages in full rack deployment -- a block filled with servers, storage, switches, etc. -- for hyperscale data centers. ZT also commands a data center infrastructure manufacturing business, for which AMD announced it would seek out a strategic partner to offload this part of the company.
- Clearly the company does not have a CHIP or infrastructure ready for a major AI play at this time.

Carl Ichan - Hand Slap
- Carl Icahn and his publicly traded company Icahn Enterprises settled with the SEC over allegedly failing to disclose billions worth in stock-backed borrowing.
- Icahn and IELP will pay a combined $2 million in fines, without admitting or denying wrongdoing, over the failure to disclose as much as $5 billion in margin loans that were backed by Icahn’s stake in the company.
- Icahn, a well-known activist investor, had been facing pressure from another activist short seller in 2023. (Hindenburg which is still short the shares)

Circle K 11?
- Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K) has sounded out Japan's Seven & i (7-Eleven) about a potential takeover, the two companies said on Monday, making the 7-Eleven owner the largest-ever Japanese target of a foreign buyout.
- While the value of the offer has not been disclosed, the bid is the latest example of the growing interest in Japanese companies by Western investors, who have been drawn by the country's push for better governance.
- News of the deal sent shares of Seven & i surging by almost 23% in Tokyo

Chicken and the Egg
- Chicken prices are going up
- Perdue Foods is recalling more than 167,000 pounds of frozen chicken nuggets and tenders after some customers reported finding metal wire embedded in the products.
- According to Perdue and the U.S. Agriculture Department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, the recall covers select lots of three products: Perdue Breaded Chicken Tenders, Butcher Box Organic Chicken Breast Nuggets and Perdue Simply Smart Organics Breaded Chicken Breast Nuggets.
- May be contaminated with a foreign material after receiving an unspecified number of customer complaints.
- But egg prices (unrelated to above) are going up again - prices up 50% from the recent low in September 2023 ($2 per dozen to $3 per dozen)
--- Blaming on bird flu....
- Jan 2023 high of $4.83 - so down 50% from high

And Yet...
- Retail Sales: Advanced retail sales accelerated 1% on the month, much better than the 0.3% estimate.
- Excluding auto-related items, sales increased 0.4%, also better than the 0.1% forecast.

Hack Alert!?
- 2.9 billion people may have had Social Security numbers, other financial data compromised.
- If true, reports suggest all Americans may have had valuable personal information compromised — including full names, current and past addresses, Social Security numbers and information on parents, siblings and other relatives.
- The alleged April 2024 breach occurred when a background check company doing business as National Public Data, owned by Jerico Pictures Inc., failed to properly safeguard information it scraped, the lawsuit states. The company provides instant search access to billions of records.
- How did they SCRAPE all this info?

Back to Bonds
- Speculators raised their net short bets on five-year Treasuries to the largest on record in the latest week, while bearish bets on 10-year Treasury futures were the largest since January, according to data by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.
- Treasury yields have rebounded from more than one-year lows reached in August, when concerns mounted that the U.S. economy is rapidly weakening and due to a stock market rout caused in part by the unwind of popular dollar/yen carry trades.
- Better economic data this week and hotter-than-expected shelter inflation in July has also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, with a 25 basis point cut now seen as more likely.

More on Weakening Demand
- Lowe's cuts full-year outlook as it expects home improvement sales to weaken
- Lowe's on Tuesday cut its full-year forecast, as the home improvement retailer's quarterly sales declined and it said it expects spending on do-it-yourself projects to weaken.
- The company said it now expects total sales of between $82.7 to $83.2 billion for the full year, compared with the $84 billion to $85 billion that it previously expected.
- It said it expects comparable sales to fall by 3.5% to 4%, compared to its prior forecast of a decline of 2% to 3%. It anticipates adjusted earnings per share will be approximately $11.70 to $11.90, compared with the prior outlook of between $12 and $12.30.
- Very similar to Home Depot
- Investors are really not discouraged though

Price Controls
- WTF are they talking about?
- Price controls are government-mandated minimum or maximum prices set for specific goods and services. Price controls are put in place to manage the affordability of goods and services on the market. Minimums are called price floors while maximums are called price ceilings.
-We already have price controls with rent, labor wages and medicine costs - what else they talking about ????
---- Are they thinking of setting up the Price Gouging Board?
- Good politics, bad for free markets

Higher Corporate Taxes
- Harris is now pushing higher corporate taxes (really just rolling back the Trump tax cuts )
- If enacted, the policy would raise hundreds of billions of dollars, as the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has projected that 1 percentage point increases in the corporate rate corresponds to about $100 billion over a decade.

More good news....
- Eli Lilly's highly popular weight loss drug reduced the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes by 94% in obese or overweight adults with pre-diabetes compared to a placebo, according to initial results from a long-term study released today.
- The late-stage trial on tirzepatide, the active ingredient in the company's weight loss injection Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, also found that patients experienced sustained weight loss over the roughly three-year treatment period. Adults on the highest weekly dose of the drug saw a 22.9% decrease in body weight on average after 176 weeks, compared to 2.1% for those who received a placebo.
- Glucose monitoring companies are trading lower today: TNDM -6%, PODD -5.8%, DXCM -5.2%

Tesla News
- The European Union on Tuesday said a planned tariff on Tesla vehicles being imported from China would be cut to 9% from 20.8%.
- Trump is talking cabinet position fro Elon - but also about killing EV tax credits

AI Scare
- Trump campaign seems to be in the hot-seat over the Taylor Swift AI images posted on social media showing support for Trump by Swift
- In the "old" days didn't we look at these as "photoshop'd" - - What is the difference -- is it just a media scare practice against AI

Disney - WOW
- Disney has reversed course on a wrongful death lawsuit brought by the widower of a woman who died after eating at a resort restaurant, saying the matter can now proceed to court.
- Previously, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts had argued in court documents that the widower’s Disney+ streaming service contract means he cannot sue for the alleged wrongful death of his wife.
- In the lawsuit, plaintiff Jeffrey Piccolo alleged that his late wife, Kanokporn Tangsuan, suffered a fatal allergic reaction from a meal she ate at a park restaurant in 2023. But Disney tried to get the lawsuit tossed by asking the court to move the dispute to arbitration, meaning the case would not go before a jury or otherwise continue in court.

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Cut taxes on SS and Tips?

President decides rates?

China – inflation ticking up

YEN volatility – NOT OVER

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Warm Up
- Cut taxes on SS and Tips?
- President decides rates?
- China - inflation ticking up
- YEN volatility - NOT OVER
- Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP

Market Update- CRISIS AVERTED
- August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data
- Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual
- Same old = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down
- PPI out - changing direction

Crisis Averted
- Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on
- Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10% - intervention anyone?
--- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here
---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments
---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up
--- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$)
- Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL

Volume/Vacations - August
- Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower
- Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day
- However - big week of ECO data
- - CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here)

Month to Date

| MTD | | IWN | iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF | -7.87% | | IWM | iShs Russell 2000 ETF | -7.10% | | IWO | iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF | -6.15% | | IWD | iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF | -2.45% | | IWB | iShs Russell 1000 ETF | -1.68% | | IWF | iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF | -1.00% |

Really?
- Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.
- The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday
- Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now...
* Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035
--- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS
---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people** (1% of population

Where do we stand on this..
- Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions?

Switcher-rooo
- Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024
- -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10%

China
- China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.
- Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June.
- Is this good news or bad?

PPI
- July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4%
-- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns
- Tomorrow - CPI

Another one...
- Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand.
- The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors, to decline about 1%.
- Home Depot warned of a decline in annual profit and a bigger drop in its annual comparable sales on Tuesday, as weak discretionary spending dampened expectations of a recovery in consumer sentiment this year.

Impressive
- Buffett's Berkshire currently holding more short-term US Treasury bills than the Federal Reserve
- The company announced in its latest earnings report that it has $234.6 billion in short-term Treasury bills on its books — a sizable increase from the $130 billion it held at the end of last year and an amount that surpasses the $195 billion in T-bills held on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
- Sold a tom of Apple and Bank of America

Boeing - Gilligan
- NASA officials said on Wednesday the two astronauts delivered to the International Space Station in June by Boeing's Starliner could return on SpaceX's Crew Dragon in February 2025 if Starliner is still deemed unsafe to return to Earth.
- The U.S. space agency has been discussing potential plans with SpaceX to leave two seats empty on an upcoming Crew Dragon launch for NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who became the first crew to fly Boeing's Starliner capsule.
- A supply of food and supplies sent up every Tuesday
- Starliner development has been set back by management issues and numerous engineering problems. It has cost Boeing $1.6 billion since 2016, including $125 million from Starliner's current test mission, securities filings show.

Intel
- Intel was sued on Wednesday by shareholders who said the Silicon Valley chipmaker fraudulently concealed problems that led it to post weak results, slash jobs and suspend its dividend, and caused its market value to sink more than $32 billion in a single day.
- The proposed class action against Intel, Chief Executive Patrick Gelsinger and Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner was filed in San Francisco federal court.

Ford - eBikes?
- Ford is coming out with a line of e-bikes bases on old favs
- The e-bikes are inspired by its Mustang cars and Bronco SUVs with distinct style and power.
- Price - anywhere from $3,700 - $4,500
-- Looks like other similar bikes that cost $2,000

Elon Polluting
- Elon Musk's SpaceX violated environmental regulations by repeatedly releasing pollutants into or near bodies of water in Texas, a state agency said in a notice of violation focused on the company's water deluge system at its Starbase launch facility.
- The notice from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) last week came five months after the Environmental Protection Agency Region 6 office, which covers Texas and surrounding states, had also informed SpaceX that it violated the Clean Water Act with the same type of activity.

Macy's Dominos?
- Macy's decision to close nearly a third of its stores will spark change in malls and communities across the U.S.
- Some of those transformations may catch shoppers by surprise.
- The retailer said in late February that it plans to close about 150 of its namesake locations by early 2027. Macy's has not yet shared which stores will shutter. When CEO Tony Spring announced the move, he said the stores that Macy's will close account for 25% of the company's gross square footage, but less than 10% of its sales.
- ? Macy's closures will also make way for real estate developments that may better match the changing demographics or economy of their surroundings, whether through construction of a medical building, a retirement community or a grocery store.

This again
- Tilray confirms the Company has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire four craft breweries from Molson Coors Beverage Company
- is this just about infusing - and if so - why buy the brands?
- If it is about just expanding portfolio - what is that saying about the profitability and future of their MJ business?

OOPS
- The United Autoworkers Union (UAW) on Tuesday said it filed federal labor charges against former President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk for allegedly attempting to threaten and intimidate workers during their Monday night discussion on Musk's X platform.
- Basically, Trump intemated that if workers go on strike - they should be fired
- Federal law prohibits companies from firing workers who participate in a strike whether they're members of a union or not.

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Japan stocks PLUNGE!

Tech stocks in correction – nearing bear market.

What does the crystal ball tell us? Where is the PPP?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- OMG - Did you see that?
- Fear - blood in the streets
- Looking for someone to blame for the selloff
- Boeing news....Finally

Market Update- RISK off - all risk assets (aside from bonds) down in August
- Bitcoin - CRUSHED - as with other cryptos - so much for safe-haven
- 13:1 Day Decliners to Advancers (that is pretty significant.
- Records broken - Worst day in 50 years for one stock

Where is the PPP?
- Now we are hearing about an emergency cut - looking for a 0.75% cut (Jeremy Seigel)
- Investors looking for a save - Plunge Protection Team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Seems like Tuesday in Japan - PPP to the rescue - +10%

Bitcoin and ETH
- Seriously - takes it on the chin down 15% with global market sell-off
- What happened to it being a safe-haven - all but discounted at this point....

Japan's first increase in decades
- Actually, last increase was 2017 - so 17 YEARS OF LOW RATES
- The Widowmaker trade is finally working - but for how long?
- Japan's major stock market - YEN Up 11% since 7/11/2024 and the Nikkei is down 23% (28% at low on Monday) since 7/11/2024
- Carry-Trade (borrow Yen at low rate and reinvest) BLOWING UP
- WORST day for Japan's markets since Black Monday in 1987
--- The loss of 4,451.28 points on the index was also the largest in terms of points in its entire history.
-=-=-=-= This is not the first time Japan's central bank has caused this type of situation. Their entire investing and monetary process is very dangerous.
-=-=-=-=- - Japan's Nikkei had the best day since 2008 on Tuesday

Repercussions
- Stocks around the world got hammered - worrying about YEN unwind as well as the earnings and outlook from Tech
- Kospi -8% down Monday
- World stocks off by 3%+
- UGLY moves and lots of trading opportunities
- $1 Trillion in market cap erased from Mega-Caps Monday (Mag7)

AND
- A sharp drop in U.S. stocks is provoking selling from volatility-sensitive funds, exacerbating a selloff
- Volatility control funds - systematic investment strategies that typically buy equities when markets are calm and sell when they grow turbulent have gorged on stocks as indexes soared to record highs in 2024
- More recently, they have begun selling, as worries over the economy and tech earnings rattle investors: volatility control funds have dumped about $83.6 billion of U.S. equity futures over the last two weeks

VIX
- SPIKES to 65 on Monday morning.... (Then comes down to about 36 on the close)
- Historical spike like that are interesting signs that it may be end of route (or getting close)
- - 80's for Pandemic and peak of Financial Crisis
---- Unbelievable move in 3 days that seems that most people were unprepared for

Economic Issues
- Nonfarm payrolls grew by just 114,000 in July, below the downwardly revised 179,000 in June and the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000.
- The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021, triggering an economic rule on recessions.
- Health care again led, adding 55,000 to payrolls. Other notable gainers included construction (25,000), government (17,000), and transportation and warehousing (14,000).
- Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% for the month and 3.6% from a year ago. Both figures were below respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

Google loses Anti-Trust
- Google’s payments to make its search engine the default on smartphone web browsers violates US antitrust law, a federal judge ruled Monday, handing a key victory to the Justice Department.
- Judge Amit Mehta in Washington said that the Alphabet Inc. unit’s $26 billion in payments effectively blocked any other competitor from succeeding in the market.
- Surely there will be an appeal

More Pain
- NVDA delaying
- Design flaws could cause a delay of three months or more in the launch of chip giant Nvidia's upcoming artificial-intelligence chips, tech-focused publication the Information said on Friday.
-- WAIT - What design flaws? Company already paid billions for this chip - what design flaws???????

Buffet Selling Too!
- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway dumped nearly half of its gigantic Apple stake last quarter in a surprising move for the famously long-term-focused investor.
- After this and BAC sales - plenty of cash on hand for Berkshire...

Olympic Paydays- Pretty impressive for some - embarrassing for others

Olympic Bonus

Intel
- We sniffed this out - with that big job cut
--- Added to that - now 15% of workforce
- WORST day in 50 years! (1974 down 31%)
- Price down to levels not seen since 2013
- -26% after a miserable quarter - pretty much nothing good to say
- The company swung to a $1.61 billion net loss after reporting net income of $1.48 billion in the year-earlier period. Adjusted earnings per share of 2 cents fell way short of the average analyst estimate of 10 cents
- CUT DIVIDEND

Amazon
- Shares tumble 12% after earnings outlook disappoints
- Revenue in the second quarter rose 10% from a year earlier to $147.98 billion, falling just short of $148.56 billion projected
- Net income at Amazon doubled from a year earlier to $1.26 a share, topping analysts estimates of $1.03 per share
- Cost cutting is helping
- Revenue outlook came at mid-point of the range
- Consumers are trading down to lower cost alternatives
- NOW THIS: What's more, a chaotic news cycle means that consumers are more distracted than usual, and may wait to make a purchase or abandon their cart altogether - according to Amazon CFO

Boeing
- Boeing named aerospace industry veteran Kelly Ortberg as its CEO to turn around the planemaker beset by legal and regulatory problems after a quarter in which it lost more than $1 billion.
- Ortberg will start on Aug. 8 with the monumental task of rebuilding trust with regulators, the industry and the public
- The planemaker posted a loss of $1.4 billion on revenue of $16.9 billion, short of the consensus among analysts for $17.2 billion, according to LSEG data. It lost $2.90 a share, worse than of expectations for a loss of $1.97 a share.
- Anywhere to go from here? Is all bad news out there ?????

Lawsuits coming
- Delta says the Crowdstrike data outage cost the company $500 million
- More than 4,000 flight canccelled
-- Now that they are putting a number on it - lawsuit is not too far off...

On a BETTER note...
- Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter
- Real gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation.
- Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% increase in the first quarter.

Follow Up
- All doses of Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro are now available, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's updated shortage list showed on Friday.
- However, the regulator has not yet removed the drugs off its shortage list.
- Lilly's Mounjaro has been on the U.S. FDA's shortage list since late 2022, while Zepbound was added to the list in April this year.
- The FDA continues to actively monitor drug availability and work with the company to ensure a stable supply of safe and effective drugs, the agency stated in an email.
- This impacts HIMS (and other companies like WW) as they may not be able to get compounded versions if comes off of the FDA shortage list.

Inflation
- Headline inflation in the euro zone unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July, the European Union's statistics agency said last week.
- Seeing other areas also showing a tick up in inflation readings.
- How is that going to work with the idea that cuts are coming?
---- US Fed Funds pricing in several cuts by end of year. markets getting ahead of themselves again...

Spending
- Change on where money is coming from...
- Collectively, Americans owe a record $1.14 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- As credit card debt mounts, young adults, who are likely renters with less of a financial cushion than their elders, are increasingly falling behind.
- Credit card balances rose by $27 billion in the second quarter of 2024, a 5.8% jump from a year ago.

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New Study – Power and AI

Apple releases new AI (first version)

Bitcoin – Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric

Correction territory for many tech names

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Warm Up
- NEW CTP ANNOUNCED!
- Jailtime? Short Seller targeted
- The EXCITING Summer Olympics
- Last vote - never again!

Market Update- New Study - Power and AI
- Apple releases new AI (first version)
- Bitcoin - Not Buying the Electoral Rhetoric
- Correction territory for many of the tech names....
- Microsoft Earnings...

Crowdstrike Glitch
- 2nd shoe is dropping
- Lawsuits are on the way - hitting Crowdstrike and Microsoft
- Several announced this week.....
- CRWD still falling - Down 40% since before the "glitch"

Microsoft
- Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $2.95 per share, $0.01 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.94; revenues rose 15.2% year/year to $64.73 bln vs the $64.38 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +29%, +30% constant currency vs +30-31% CC prior guidance.
- Guides next quarter is below consensus
- Stock getting hit - down 7% initially, but comes back a bit in after-hours

AMD
- Better than feared - stock up after hours nicely

Intel
- cutting 1000's of jobs - they are not a contender at all

Citron Boss
- The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said. (Like he was in jail until bail was paid!)
- $10M Bail
- Andrew Left - is accused of using his public platform, which included social media posts on X and appearances on CNBC, to make illegal profits of at least $16 million by manipulating stock market activity and trading in a way that was contrary to the positions he publicly purported to take.
- Left is also being sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which in a civil complaint filed last week in LA federal court accused him and Citron of “engaging in a $20 million multi-year scheme to defraud followers by “publishing false and misleading statements regarding his supposed stock trading recommendations.”
- “Left bragged to colleagues that some of these statements [he made] were especially effective at inducing retail investors to trade based on his recommendations and said that it was like taking ‘candy from a baby,’” the SEC alleges in that lawsuit.

Big Boys - Tuesday Update
- NVDA (-6.5%) extends to session lows, as AI group comes under pressure ahead of key earnings reports and AI capex guides... other AI movers of note include ARM -6%, VRT -6%, SMCI -5.5%, QCOM -4%, MU -3%, SMH -3%

Eurozone
- The euro zone's economy grew by more than expected in the second quarter of 2024, flash figures from the European Union's statistics office showed Tuesday.
- The zone's gross domestic product rose by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June compared to the previous quarter, the data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis.

McDonald's Earnings
- McDonald’s on Monday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as same-store sales declined across every division.
- Earnings per share: $2.97 adjusted vs. $3.07 expected
- Revenue: $6.49 billion vs. $6.61 billion expected
- “At the end of the day, we expect customers will continue to feel the pinch of the economy and a higher cost of living for at least the next several quarters in this very competitive landscape,” McDonald’s U.S. President Joe Erlinger said
- Stock - Went up
- Big plan ????? Bring back the Value Meal (How does that actually help?)

More Inflation News
-Between May 2022 and May 2023, home insurance prices rose an average of 21% at renewal time, according to Policygenius.
- A rise in catastrophic severe weather events contributed to this jump, experts say, and the rate of price increases is not expected to slow. As insurers face higher costs, they pass those along to consumers in the form of pricier premiums.
- Climate change being used as profit machine for insurance companies

Airlines
- U.S. airlines are reducing their capacity through the end of the year in a bid to cool an oversupplied domestic market that has led to lower fares and reduced profits despite strong summer travel demand.
- Jetblue has great quarter BTW - shares up 20% on Tuesday
- Spirit should be reporting in the next week or so...

Bank of America
- Berkshire liquidating some of the holding
- Could be good opp once pressure relieved
- Berkshire sold 18.4 million Bank of America shares for $767 million between July 25 and 29, according to a Monday night regulatory filing. It has sold 71.2 million shares for $3.05 billion since July 17, reducing its holdings in the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender by 6.9% to 961.5 million shares.

Olympics
- River Seine has been an issue as there is concern if it will be clean enough on Tuesday to hold the men's triathlon (not sure if it went off)
- Italian high jumper Gianmarco Tamberi was given the honorable role of flagbearer for his country. During the kickoff to the Olympic Games, as the boat sailed down the Seine River, the Olympic champion proudly waved the Italian flag while standing on the ledge of the boat. Things quickly took a turn when the world-renowned athlete watched his wedding ring slip off of his finger and into the river below.
---- Sobbed and issues a "heartfelt" apology letter to his wife

The POWER and AI
- Something we have talked about is the massive power suck from AI
- concerns are mounting about whether the U.S. can generate enough electricity for the widespread adoption of AI, and whether our aging grid will be able to handle the load.
- One ChatGPT query uses nearly 10 times as much energy as a typical Google search
- in Kansas City, where Meta is building an AI-focused data center, power needs are so high that plans to close a coal-fired power plant are being put on hold.
- Boston Consulting Group estimates demand for data centers will rise 15%-20% every year through 2030, when they're expected to comprise 16% of total U.S. power consumption.

Apple Intelligence
- Apple on Monday released the first version of Apple Intelligence, its suite of artificial intelligence features that will improve Siri, automatically generate emails and images and sort notifications.
- Not for you yet - The new software called Apple Intelligence was released in the developer beta of iOS 18.1.
- It's also available in similar releases for iPad and Mac. It's currently only available to registered Apple developers who pay $99 a year.

Good News - No More Voting
- Trump said: "Christians, get out and vote, just this time. "You won't have to do it anymore. Four more years, you know what, it will be fixed, it will be fine, you won't have to vote anymore, my beautiful Christians."
- He added: "I love you Christians. I'm a Christian. I love you, get out, you gotta get out and vote. In four years, you don't have to vote again, we'll have it fixed so good you're not going to have to vote," Trump said.

Both Trump and Harris now LOVE Bitcoin
- Trump proposes strategic national crypto stockpile - vows to boost value
- Harris campaign reaches out to major Crypto companies - Coinbase, Ripple - trying to repair their strained relationship

No Kidding!
- Shares of Dexcom tumbled more than 36% in after-hours trading Thursday after the diabetes management company released second-quarter results that missed analysts' expectations for revenue and offered weak guidance.
- Great company - device for type-II diabetes - constant and automatic insulin pump
- - BUT!!!!!!!!!!!! GLP-1 glucagon-like peptide 1 helping ??? Killing off the new breed of competition?

FORD!!!!!!!!
- Worst day since 2009 on earnings miss (18% on the day)
- Warranty problems building up much more than anticipated (The automaker reported an additional $800 million)

New Search King?
- OpenAI last week - announced a prototype of its own search engine, called SearchGPT, aimed to give users "fast and timely answers with clear and relevant sources." The company said it eventually plans to integrate the tool, which is currently being tested with a small group of users, into its viral chatbot, ChatGPT

High End Consumers - Crunch
- Shares in Gucci-owner Kering fell on Thursday, after the luxury group announced a sharp decline in revenue in the first half of the year and issued a weak forecast for the remaining six months of the year.
- The luxury group late on Wednesday announced that its revenue had fallen 11% in the first half of 2024, compared to the same time period a year earlier.
- Decline in most regions with the exception of Japan.

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DJIA – FAILED – worst week in ages

Huge Failure of tech – Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)

Dangerous market – running on emotions

Tesla Earnings are out…

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Chatroom still a work in progress it appears

Warm Up
- Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed)
- Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident)
- Dangerous market - running on emotions

Market Update- DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July)
- Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed -
- Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too

Need a new CTP

Market Emotions
- Now that we are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market
- Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines)
- People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts)
- Biden dropping out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ...

Crowdstrike Glitch
- Anything on your end a problem?
- Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday
- Airlines - still seem to be having issues
- Bigger issues when relying on single company?
- Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services
- Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings (some firms may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack)

Delta Offers Apologies+
- CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch"
- 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights)
- The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts
- WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers)

Tech - Wiz Walks
- $23 billion - they say NO THANKS
- Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers
- May valuation was $12 billion
- Company wants to go the IPO route

Election
- Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?)
- Trump Trade fade?
- Vance tough on anything foreign? (USA First)
- Anyone else aside from Harris?

Bank Earnings
- Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good
- Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely)
- Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks)
- Fed continues to be dovish
- Trump expectations of reduced regulations?

More Earnings
- Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus
--- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue and other AI comments)
- Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus
-- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr
---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%)
- Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%)

Warren
- Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.
- It marked the first time since the fourth quarter of 2019 that the Omaha-based conglomerate has reduced the stake
- In fairness, the stake became too large - and required extra reporting - this way they can keep their transactions a bit more quiet.
- Bank of America remains Berkshire's second largest equity position after Apple, holding 999 million shares with a market value of almost $43 billion.
- Berkshire is still Bank of America's largest shareholder with a 10.8% stake.

Homebuilders
- Continue to see interest
- DR Horton (Biggest out there crushes earnings expectations)
- Still goes vertical - ALL TIME HIGH
- Still a big divergence with NEW Home and EXISTING Home sales
- AMAZING in higher interest rate environment - but pricing better that existing and more interest

Meanwhile - Rates
- Yields bumped off the lower bound of the recent range (10Yr Yield)
- 4.27% - even though rate cut for September is supposedly near 100% probability
- Perhaps it is more about the state of US debt than the Fed?

NVDA
- Preparing updated version of AI chip for China
- Blackwell
- Nvidia will work with Inspur, one of its major distributor partners in China, on the launch and distribution of the chip which is tentatively named the "B20", two of the sources said. Shipments of the "B20" are planned to start in the second quarter of 2025
- The sources declined to be identified as Nvidia has yet to make a public announcement.
- China accounted for around 17% of Nvidia's revenue in the year to end-January in the wake of U.S. sanctions, sliding from 26% two years earlier.
-- Of course news is out after chips correct due to Biden
---- So we put governor on the chip? Can't they just figure out what

Micky Dees DEFLATION
- McDonald’s will extend its $5 value meal beyond its initial four-week window in most of its U.S. markets as the fast-food giant says the offer is driving traffic back to restaurants.
- McDonald’s is extending the promotion as rivals such as Burger King and Starbucks offer deals to entice diners and boost traffic.
- The deal: It includes a McChicken or McDouble, four-piece chicken nuggets, fries and a drink.

China- Eco Slump
- China surprised markets by cutting major short and long-term interest rates on Monday, its first such broad move since August last year, signalling intent to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy just days after a Communist Party leadership meeting.
- The cuts to the central bank's key short-term policy rate, its market operations rates and benchmark bank lending rates came after China reported weaker-than-expected second-quarter economic data last week and its top leaders met for a plenum that occurs roughly every five years.
- Market was not impressed
- Trying to get ahead of Trump wrecking ball?

Tricky
- General Motors BEATS revenue expectations ny a wide margin (~$2Billion)
- Stock up nicely pre-marketss
- Company takes a victory lap
- BUT - General Motors discloses it recorded charges before noncontrolling interest of $122 million
- Stock down 6% on the day
- Lesson - Headlines are often misleading - do not invest on headlines

UPDATE
- CrowdStrike software update contributed to Google's M&A talks with Wiz falling apart, according to Bloomberg

UH OH
- Car loan delinquency rates are soaring
- According to Cox Automotive, the volume of repossessed vehicles at Manheim auctions, the largest wholesale marketplace, is up 23% year over year through the first half of 2024.
- They are also up 14% compared with the same period in 2019, according to the data.
- Credit card delinquency on the rise as well
- Consumers are struggling - markets do not care...

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Market Rotation continues – “Trump” stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)

Risk On – Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)

KRI Indicator – Doing something not done since June 2020

Earnings growth expected to continue….

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Chatroom should be back up and running....

Warm Up
- Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY)
- ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER
- Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN
- College athletes - Min Wage?

Market Update- Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)
- Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)
- KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020
- Earnings growth expected to continue....
- Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future?

OH MY
- Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...)
- Value over Growth
- Real Estate - Builders - WOW!
--- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today
----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push
- KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month
----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range

Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets)
- European Markets RED across the board
- Russian Market GREEN
- China RED
- Japan RED
- US Markets GREEN
- Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN

Powell on Monday
- Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2%
-B.O.R.I.N.G.

Trump Media
- DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
- Was up 30% by end of day on Monday

China Economic Update
- China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll.
- Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast.
- Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase.
- Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations.
- China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter.

KRI Indicator
- Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020
- First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory
- Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET)

Any Surprise? Retail....
- Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital
- Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO.
- These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%.
- Consumer is starting to fight back?????

DEFLATION?
- CPI was NEGATIVE MoM
- PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at

Deflation

CPI Chart

Finally!
- Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm.
- The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos, which inflicted $10 billion in losses at global banks and, according to prosecutors, and caused more than $100 billion in shareholder losses at companies in its portfolio.
- Hwang secretly amassed outsized stakes in multiple companies without actually holding their stock, according to prosecutors. Hwang lied to banks about the size of the derivative positions of Archegos in order to borrow billions of dollars that he and his deputies then used to artificially inflate the underlying stocks, prosecutors said.

Mortgage Refinancing
- Activity drops again as rates remain elevated
- Estimates are that homeowners are sitting on $17 TRILLION of equity
- Problem is no where to go, higher tax base, higher financing costs.

College Athletes
- They opened Pandora's Box .....
- A U.S. appeals court on Thursday created a test for courts to determine when college athletes are the employees of their schools and the governing body for American intercollegiate sports, making them eligible for the minimum wage.
- In the first ruling of its kind, a panel of the Philadelphia-based 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said athletes may be regarded as employees under federal wage laws if they primarily perform services for their schools' benefit "in return for express or implied compensation or in-kind benefits."
- The ruling allows a group of former college athletes to pursue a proposed class action against the National Collegiate Athletic Association and their former schools.

Musk - Legal issues
- Every week another legal issue
- The European Commission on Friday accused Elon Musk's X of deceiving users and infringing digital content rules, putting the social media giant at risk of a hefty fine.
- The commission, which is the European Union's executive arm, started an investigation last year to assess whether X is in breach of the Digital Services Act (DSA) — a piece of landscape legislation requiring Big Tech firms to better police the content on their platforms.
- The body's preliminary view, published Friday, is that X has broken rules regarding dark patterns, advertising transparency and data access for researchers. So-called dark patterns are deceptive tactics designed to push people toward certain products and services.
- X's use of the blue checkmark for verified accounts does not correspond to industry practices, the commission said, as anyone can subscribe and obtain a verified status. It added that there was evidence of "motivated malicious actors" abusing the verified status to deceive users.

Earnings
- For the S&P 500, the actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500. The only exceptions were Q1 2020, Q3 2022, and Q4 2022.
- Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings at or above 12% for the second quarter.
- Over the past four quarters (Q2 2023 through Q1 2024), actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 6.5% on average. During these four quarters, 78% of companies in the S&P 500 reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average.
- There is a good amount of positive vibes about the coming earnings over the next few weeks.

Bank Earnings
- High expectations coming into this earnings season
- Stocks were WAY up ahead of reports
- Generally good quarters with a few outlier - just expectations are out of control
- A few made it through in pretty good shape - GS and JPM at ATH

Bank of America
- Earnings: 83 cents a share vs. 80 cents a share LSEG estimate
- Revenue: $25.54 billion vs. $25.22 billion estimate
- The bank said profit slipped 6.9% from the year earlier period to $6.9 billion, or 83 cents a share, as the company’s net interest income declined amid higher interest rates. Revenue climbed less than 1% to $25.54 billion.
- The firm was helped by a 29% increase in investment banking fees to $1.56 billion, edging out the $1.51 billion StreetAccount estimate.
- Asset management fees rose 14% to $3.37 billion, buoyed by higher stock market values, helping the firm’s wealth management division post a 6.3% increase in revenue to $5.57 billion, essentially matching the estimate.
- Stock up 5%

New Deal for Renters?
- President Biden will unveil a new proposal in Nevada on Tuesday to cap rental costs nationwide
- The plan — which would need to be approved by Congress — calls for stripping a tax benefit from landlords who increase their tenants’ rent more than 5 percent per year
- The measure would only apply to landlords who own more than 50 units, which represents roughly half of all rental properties
- HAHAHA (MORONIC): It wouldn’t cover units that have not yet been built, in an attempt to ensure that the policy does not discourage construction of new rental housing.

Really?
- A new discovery has proved the existence of the Loch Ness Monster "plausible," according to scientists. The recent revelation, made in the Sahara Desert, makes old Nessie, the mythical Scottish creature, entirely "plausible".
- Researchers from University of Bath and University of Portsmouth in the UK and Université Hassan II in Morocco made a shock discovery of fossils of a plesiosaur in the Sahara Dessert, according to newsweek.com.

Retail Sales
- Big jump in retail sales this month
- So much for consumers backing off
- Several "luxury retailers" sending in signals that they are hurting - Hugo Boss and other European retailers hit by slowdown in China sales
- - Shoppers are likely to spend roughly $14 billion during Amazon's Prime Day two-day shopping event this week, according to projections from Adobe Analytics, a firm that studies e-commerce transaction data.

And this...
- Deutsche Bank criticized by German regulator for financial reporting error
- Deutsche Bank incorrectly disclosed deferred tax assets in its 2019 financial statement which did not meet international accounting standards, the German regulator BaFin said on Tuesday.

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Shark Week (Market Style) – Whale Gorging – Big Teeth – Big Appetites

Earnings season coming up

Biden staying in the race (for now)

Complacency nearing a tipping point.

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Warm Up
- Shark Week - Whale Gorging - Big Teeth - Big Appetites
- Earnings season coming up
- Biden staying in the race
- Market Moves - the inside track
- NEW - ALL ABOUT BIDEN ISSSUES

Market Update- Big Swings - Massive Rotation
- Employment Report for June
- Market Moves - the inside track
- Big Box - down to a few

Fed First- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Q&A with Senate Banking Committee: The "likely next direction" of policy will be a loosening of policy; rate hike not likely

Employment Reports
- Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
- Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January.
- BLS Official saw Unemp rate tick up to 4.1%
-Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June
- Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction.

The Inside Track Lowdown
-- People asking me "When will this end? It is crazy!"
- This week we will be treated to CPI and PPI.
- As it stands, Powell made comments after the close on July 3rd that they were not satisfied with the rate of change related to inflation. There is more work to be done he said. But, the markets don't really care about that - they see a cut in September and December.
- The general direction of the markets - or path of least resistance appears to be up.
- Investors are gorging themselves on AI related names.
- The big boys (and girls) of the market are taking in big money - helping to keep markets buoyed.
- - It has the look and feel of great white sharks in a ravenous feeding frenzy over a rotting whale corpse.
- Full Disclosure - we hold a good number of these names in our core equity allocation. Microsoft, Nvidia, SMCI, Google (Alphabet), Meta (Facebook) and several more.
- Monday moves - the DJIA was up big to start the day and at the lunchtime break was in the red. The money clearly flowed out of DJIA and into the NASDAQ100 again. So, this is how it will be for a while, or until something changes. And, that may very well be the next batch of earnings through the season that begins on this coming Friday with the major financial names.

Ford
- Ford truck sales, which includes pickups and vans, totaled 308,920 vehicles during the period, the company's best second-quarter performance for the category since 2019, Ford said. Sales in its F-Series totaled 199,463 vehicles.
- Sales of Ford electric vehicles totaled 23,957 during the second quarter, up 61%.
- The automaker said its EVs, in particular the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning, are drawing new customers to the company.
- Stock is stuck in a range

Boeing
- Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge and pay a fine of $243.6 million to resolve a U.S. Justice Department investigation into two 737 MAX fatal crashes, the government said in a court filing on Sunday.
- The plea deal, which requires a judge's approval, would brand the planemaker a convicted felon in connection with crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia over a five-month period in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people.
- Smart - quick slap on the wrist and get it over with (for publicity sake)
- As part of the deal, the planemaker agreed to spend at least $455 million over the next three years to boost safety and compliance programs. Boeing's board will have to meet with relatives of those killed in the MAX crashes, the filing said.
- The deal also imposes an independent monitor, who will have to publicly file annual progress reports, to oversee the firm's compliance. Boeing will be on probation during the monitor's three-year term.

Tesla
- Tesla shareholders will appear in court on Monday to argue that an unprecedented request for more than $7 billion in attorneys' fees to be paid by the company is "outlandish," the latest twist in a legal showdown over Musk's $56 billion pay package.
- The record fee request was made by investor Richard Tornetta on behalf of three law firms that represented him, including Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann. Tornetta owned nine shares of Tesla when he sued over Musk's pay package of stock options in 2018, a legal battle he ultimately won in January when the package was voided.
- The fee equals around $7.2 billion at Tesla's Friday's stock price and amounts to a rate of roughly $370,000 for every hour worked by the 37 lawyers, associates and paralegals, some of whom normally bill as little as $275 an hour, according to court documents submitted Tornetta's lawyers.

More Musk
- Elon Musk wants to dismiss a lawsuit by former Twitter shareholders who said he waited too long in early 2022 to reveal his large ownership stake in the social media company, saying "all indications" show his delay was a mistake.
- In a late Wednesday night filing in Manhattan federal court, Musk called it implausible to believe he wanted to defraud shareholders who didn't know he had taken a 9.2% Twitter stake, and missed out on big gains because they sold their own stock.

Say What?
- Greece has controversially introduced a six-day working week for some businesses in a bid to boost productivity and employment in the southern European country.
- Under the new legislation, which was passed as part of a broader set of labor laws last year, employees of private businesses that provide round-the-clock services will reportedly have the option of working an additional two hours per day or an extra eight-hour shift.
- The change means a traditional 40-hour workweek could be extended to 48 hours per week for some businesses. Food service and tourism workers are not included in the six-day working week initiative.

Needless markup
- Saks Fifth Avenue parent HBC said on Thursday it will acquire Neiman Marcus Group in a $2.65 billion deal combining the storied retailers.
- The combination will establish Saks Global, which will include Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks OFF 5TH, Neiman Marcus' namesake department store chain and Bergdorf Goodman.

Europe - Coming after Tech
- Anti Trust for MSFT, META, ..... the whole list of big names
--- Tax on tech as they don't have any - need their fare share
- NVDA is set to be charged by the French antitrust regulator for allegedly anti-competitive practices, people with direct knowledge of the matter said, making it the first enforcer to act against the computer chip maker.

Chipotle
- Stock split - everyone piled in - now they are running away
- Stock was as high as $69 post split (a few days ago)
- Now trading at $59.50

Is this something?
- Consumer credit increased by $11.3 bln in May (Briefing.com consensus $9.5 bln) after increasing an upwardly revised $6.5 bln (from $6.4 bln) in April.
- The key takeaway from the report is that revolving credit growth accelerated strongly after a slight contraction in May, so the question is whether consumers are turning to revolving credit because of need or increased optimism about economic prospects.
- Revolving credit increased by $7.0 bln to $1.345 trln.
- Nonrevolving credit increased by $4.4 bln to $3.720 trln.
- Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.7% in May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.3%.
- Nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.4%.

San Fran Real Estate
- The vacancy rate for San Francisco office space reached a fresh record of 34.5% in the second quarter, according to a report on Monday from commercial real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield. That's up from 33.9% in the first quarter, 28.1% in the same period a year ago and 5% before the pandemic.
- AI boon not able to help so much
- Meanwhile, the average asking rent dropped to $68.27 per square foot in the quarter, the lowest since late 2015, down from $72.90 a year earlier and a peak of $84.70 in 2020.

StampFlation
- Starting July 14, a first-class mail "Forever" stamp will reportedly cost 73 cents each — a 5% jump from its current price of 68 cents.
- On January 22, 2023, the price of stamps was 63 cents each. That increased to 66 cents in July of the same year, and then 68 cents in January 2024.

Rebrand Car Rentals?
- Drive the BMW i4 with SIXT+ in a monthly cancelable subscription and feel what electric power is all about!
- The BMW i4 delivers a range estimate of 301 miles and is able to add 93 miles in just 10 minutes (utilizing a DC fast charger).
- $775 per month - SIXT Car Rentals

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Let them eat tech!

Meme stock mania may be dying down

Short week – July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 – closed – July 5?

How About those Florida Panthers?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Let them eat tech!
- Meme stock mania may be dying down
- Short week - July 3rd 1/2 day, July 4 - closed - July 5?
- How About those Florida Panthers?

Market Update- Heavily weighted toward 10 stocks - breath sucks
- Seeing slowdown in consumer confidence and holding steady on most economic reports
- Some concerns mounting about Russia
- Stress Tests - Anyone Surprised?

Russia Issues
- NATO wants to put a senior civilian official in Kyiv, Ukraine
- Market was a little concerned about this - as new broke, selling occurred (for about 5 minutes)

HA! Play with Fire
- Keith Gill, the investor known as "Roaring Kitty" who helped spur the meme stock mania of 2021, was sued by GameStop investors who said they lost money through his "pump-and-dump" scheme for the videogame retailer.
- A proposed class action accusing Gill of securities fraud was filed on Friday in the Brooklyn, New York federal court.
- Investors led by Martin Radev, who lives in the Las Vegas area, said Gill manipulated GameStop securities between May 13 and June 13 by quietly accumulating large quantities of stock and call options, and then dumping some holdings after emerging from a three-year social media hiatus.

More Kitty Hoo-Haa
- Shares of Chewy popped in the premarket trading Monday after a Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed meme stock trader "Roaring Kitty" took a stake in the pet food e-commerce retailer.
- The filing showed Keith Gill bought just over 9 million shares — amounting to a 6.6% stake in the company. That makes him the third-biggest Chewy shareholder, according to FactSet. Based on Friday's close, that stake is valued at more than $245 million.
- Stock was initially p 16% in premarket (that is after some wild swings last week)
---- Close DOWN 6% on the day after that initial pop
- This guy is up Ryan Cohen's butt pretty far..

Chipotle Split Update
- Trading near a post-split low
- Stock initially moved higher toward $68 then reverses hard over the past few sessions, trading near $60
- This is important as investors may not just run into split announcements after this performance.
---- Or people are finally agreeing with JCD on the lack of taste?

Boeing
- Boeing said Monday that it will buy back its struggling fuselage maker Spirit AeroSystems in an all-stock deal that the plane maker has said will improve safety and quality control.
- It said it agreed to pay $37.25 a share in Boeing stock for Spirit, giving the aerospace company an equity value of $4.7 billion. Including Spirit’s debt the deal has a transaction value of $8.3 billion Boeing said. Spirit’s shares closed Friday at $32.87 a share, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion.
---- MORE: U.S. prosecutors plan to seek a guilty plea from Boeing over a charge tied to two fatal crashes of 737 Max planes, attorneys for the victims' family members said Sunday, blasting a potential agreement as a "sweetheart deal."
- The DOJ said in May that it was reviewing whether Boeing violated a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from federal charges. The company agreed to pay a $2.5 billion penalty for a conspiracy charge tied to the 2018 and 2019 crashes of its best-selling 737 Max planes, which killed all 346 people on the two flights.

OIL!
- Breaking out
-- Concerns over supply issues due to Houthi rebels droning Suez Canal
--- Hurricane season hitting early - EARLIEST Cat4 on record happening now!
- Also some speculation that China is ramping up and needing more oil for summer etc.

Crude Chart

Inter-market Correlations - Busted
- Generally speaking higher USD and higher rates are not good for markets (pricing models etc)
- However, none of that matters for the major indices as they are fully in 10 stock mode
- Monday there was a 1% differential in S&P 500 and the S&P 500 equal weight

10-Yr Yield

It is like: Let them Eat Cake
- Let them eat tech?
----- Big divergence in names continues
------- Just throw your money into any tech at this point

Energy Scare (We called this a while ago)
- The largest utility companies in the U.S. are warning that the nation is facing a surge of electricity demand unlike anything seen in decades, and failure to rapidly increase power generation could jeopardize the nation's economy.
- After a more than decade-long period of largely flat growth, electricity demand is poised to skyrocket by 2030 as the artificial intelligence revolution, the expansion of chip manufacturing, and the electrification of the vehicle fleet all coincide as the U.S. is trying to address climate change.
- NEE, SO, CMS, EXC

More Money
- Amazon will double the value of credits it offers some startups to use its cloud infrastructure as the company faces heightened competition from Microsoft in artificial intelligence services.
- Starting July 1, startups that have raised a Series A round of funding in the past year will be eligible for $200,000 in credits through AWS' Activate program, up from $100,000 before
- In addition to its Activate offering, Amazon has a new 10-week generative AI accelerator program. Participants will be able to access up to $1 million in cloud credits
- Essentially they are hooking you, teaching you - rehooking you and making it easy for you to consumer their server power for $$$$

SHOES!
- Nike had a decent quarter but an awful terrible outlook
- Stock down 20% on earnings report
- It was the worst day ever for the stock, and the losses wiped out $28.41 billion from the company's market valuation.
- The company's U.S. market share in the sports footwear category fell to 34.97% in 2023 from 35.37% in 2022, and 35.40% in 2021, according to GlobalData.
- Meanwhile, other sporting goods brands such as Hoka, Asics, New Balance and On accounted for 35% of the global market share in 2023 compared to the 20% held over the 2013-2020 period, according to an RBC research report released in June.

Bank Stress tests
- Everyone passed (is that even something of a concern by anyone?)
- U.S. banking giants announced plans to raise their third-quarter dividends on Friday after proving that they have enough capital to withstand severe economic and market turmoil in the Federal Reserve's annual health check.
- JPM upping dividend and goosing its buyback by $30 billion
- BAC increasing its dividend
- Morgan Stanley boosted it dividend

Fuji Cameras HOT
- Remember the 1st digital SLR - Fuji S1, S2? (Just sold mine)
- Then it died off and Cannon and Sony, Nikon took over for years and Fuji appeared to be getting out of the business
- Now, the reto themed X100V has gotten popular with solcial media types (TikTok creators)
- The Fuji X100V model was so popular that in the fiscal year ended in March, it was the imaging division, which includes cameras, that was the biggest contributor to the company's record-high profit - the unit accounted for 37% of operating profit in fiscal 2023, versus 27% the year before.

YEN
- Supposedly the BOJ is on alert for the Yen passing 150 (1$ buys 150 Yen)
- It is not called the WIDOWMAKER trade for nothing
- Currently at 160 per USD
- Since 2012, the Yen has been cut in half

SO - Is Japan Cheap?
- Randomly looked up restaurant in Tokyo
- All you can drink at Gyoza Samari $20
- 2 Michelin Star Restaurant - 7 course dinner $80
- Fukushima/Hiroshima restaurants - All food pre-cooked and no need for lights as food has ambient glow - 4 course dinner plus unlimited Potassium iodide -- Priceless

More Japan
- American tourists headed for Japan have surged this year, lured by a slump in the value of the yen, which is also driving a massive jump in foreign investor interest in the country's lodgings market.
- The number of Americans arriving in Japan by air crossed more than 900,000 in the first five months of 2024, climbing 17.4% year-over-year and vaulting 35.5% from 2019 before the pandemic, the International Trade Administration data showed.

Japan Trends

San Fran - Tech Workers
- Laid-off tech workers advised to sell plasma, personal belongings to survive
----- Has to be extreme situation...
---- Tech workers - can they be retrained to be bricklayer? Is that a thing even?

Tesla
- Tesla just posted its second-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report for 2024, reporting that it produced 410,831 vehicles and delivered 443,956.
- The total number of deliveries in the second quarter fell 4.8% from 466,140 a year earlier but rose 14.8% from the first quarter.
- China made Tesla EV sales down 24% YoY
- Stock been hot - up 9% on this news today

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– Churn and Burn – RAMP UP – Rotation (Renting Space)

– Long Stretch with limited volatility

– Short Interest at MULTI year lows

– NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute

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Warm Up
- Summer Spin Cycle
- New flow shifting to election
- Banks - Fed's Stress Test Results (Wednesday)
- Last week of month and quarter!

Market Update- Churn and Burn - RAMP UP - Rotation (Renting Space)
- Long Stretch with limited volatility
- Short Interest at MULTI year lows
- NVDA becomes worlds MVC for a minute

Next week is JULY 4th
- Markets closing early (1PM) on Wednesday
- Markets Closed on Thursday
- Most people will take Friday off!

Short Interest
- Multi-Year low on S&P 500 and stocks
- Hedge fund disclosures stopping some from shorting (after Meme stock craze)
- Seems that no shorts helping to calm volatility

Stock Market - Weird Facts
- The S&P 500 has gone 377 days without a 2.05% sell-off. That's the longest stretch for the benchmark since the great financial crisis
- The index hasn't experienced a gain of at least 2.15% in that time either
- The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is considered by many investors as the de facto fear gauge on the Street. Last month, it hit its lowest level going back to November 2020. On Friday, it traded around 13, near historically low levels.
- Complacency or Green-Light?

Home Prices
- Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low, and didn't move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high.
- Many reasons - but no place to go, high rates and high prices
- IF more inventory comes on the market - possibly prices will come down (Last month inventories jumped 6.7%)
- Median price of a home sold in May was $419,300

More Homes
- Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%.
- Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales.
- First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before.

MORE HOUSING
- April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.2% vs. 6.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 7.5% from 7.4%

ERC Credit DENIED
- The IRS will deny billions of dollars' worth of claims for a pandemic-era tax break while working to process lower-risk filings, the agency said on Thursday afternoon.
- These are what you heard on commercials for a while...
- After investigating more than 1 million claims worth roughly $86 billion, the IRS said in the release that it identified 10% to 20% of the highest-risk filings, and "tens of thousands" will be rejected in the coming weeks, according to the agency. Another 60% to 70% of claims with an "unacceptable level of risk" will be further examined, the IRS said.
- During the ERC review period, the agency processed 28,000 claims received before September 2023 worth $2.2 billion and disallowed more than 14,000 claims worth $1 billion, according to the release.

TESLA
- Headcount reduction continues
- 14% of workforce has been slashed this year
-- The latest figure is not from precise payroll data, but from the number of people who are on Tesla's "everybody" email distribution list as of June 17
- Bloomberg reporting that Telsa looming for 20% total headcount cut in 2023 to benefit profitability after company reached inefficiency levels of 25% -30%

Musk - Need to know
- How many children did Elon father?

Banks
- Fed Stress Tests on Wednesday (all should pass)
- U.S. bank regulators said four major banks had shortcomings in their "living wills" - or plans that outline how they could be safely wound down if they went bankrupt or came under pressure.
- The four lenders - Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, opens new tab and JPMorgan Chase - all had problems related to the plan to unwind their derivatives portfolios, although some of the specific issues varied, the regulators said.

Boeing
- Looking to buy back Spirit Aerosystems after spinning off
- CEO Calhoun in hot-seat testifying before Senate panel about the door panel on 737 Max 9
- Also Boeing looking at potential for CRIMINAL charges (Relatives of crash victims urge prosecutors to seek $25 billion fine and criminal prosecution)
- U.S. prosecutors are recommending to senior Justice Department officials that criminal charges be brought against Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab after finding the planemaker violated a settlement related to two fatal crashes, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
------ Who will be criminally liable of the Justice Dept is victorious? Bord members, management?

NVDA - BOOM!
- NVDA passed Apple and then Microsoft in market -cap last week
- Up 170% this year
- CEO Jensen Huang became 11rh wealthiest person ($117 billion)

FED Update
- Many looking for September rate cut
- - NO WAY (unless the wheels fall off the economy quickly)
--- Neel Kashkari said last week that DECEMBER would be a reasonable prediction for a rate cut
- He has been somewhat level-headed out of all of the other speakers

China
- Retail sales beat expectations in May - up 3.7% (expectations were for 3%)
- Missed on industrial output and fixed asset investment
- Industrial output grew by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to the 6% increase expected, while fixed asset investment rose 4% compared to last May, just shy of the 4.2% forecast by the Reuters poll.
- Loan data released Friday pointed to continued lackluster demand. Outstanding yuan loans rose by 9.3% in May from a year ago, the slowest increase on record since 1978, according to Wind Information.

OIL
- Prices dipped to $72 support and then popped back up ($82)
- Next level of resistance above $83
- Houthi rebels are intensifying strikes in the Suez Canal which is prompting fears of high shipping rates and supply shortages, according to NY Times

Cocoa
- Prices of cocoa have more than tripled over the last year, creating a big headache for candy makers and other food companies that use the ingredient to make chocolate.
- Cocoa hit an all-time high of more than $11,000 per metric ton in April
- Many of the candy makers probably hedged out or long-term contracts
- Reuters reported that Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer, is looking to delay a delivery of up to 350,000 tons of beans to next season, sending prices higher again.

SpaceX - Starlink
- SpaceX is rolling out a compact version of its Starlink antennas called "Mini," which the company is advertising as a mobile option for its satellite internet customers.
- The company is offering a "limited number" of the Starlink Mini antennas for $599 each in an early access release. That's $100 more than the base model "Standard" antenna sold with its Residential service, although the company aspires to reduce that price tag.
- Marubo Tribe in Africa is NOT addicted to porn (Story about getting Starlink and tribe was addicted to porn)

China EV Tariffs
- The European Commission said it will impose extra duties of up to 38.1% on imported Chinese electric cars from July, risking retaliation from Beijing which said on Wednesday it would take measures to safeguard its interests.

MORE EV
- Volkswagen is taking a $1 billion stake in electric vehicle startup Rivian , which has been seeking to cut costs and shore up cash amid slower-than-expected adoption of EVs.
- The companies also plan to establish a joint venture, which could increase the investment to up to $5 billion until 2026.

FedEX Earnings
- Reports Q4 (May) earnings of $5.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the FactSet Consensus of $5.34; revenues rose 0.8% year/year to $22.11 bln vs the $22.04 bln FactSet Consensus.
- FedEx Express segment revenue was roughly flat yr/yr at $10.42 bln.
- FedEx Ground segment revenue rose 2.4% yr/yr to $8.49 bln.
- FedEx Freight segment revenue rose 1.6% yr/yr to $2.31 bln.
Co issues in-line guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $20.00-22.00, (Inline)
- Stock up 14% A/H

Wednesday Stocks to Watch
- Chipotle (CMG) stock spit goes into effect 50:1
- Google - ATH on Tuesday - can it continue?

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Apple AI – Disappoints (or confuses)

NVDA – passes AAPL market cap

Treasury yields moving within a range

Beanstalk – what is that story again?

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NO SHOW NET WEEK - OUT ON BIZ FOR A FEW DAYS

Warm Up
- Apple AI - Disappoints (or confuses) - for a minute
- NVDA - passes AAPL market cap
- Treasury yields moving within a range
- Beanstalk - what is that story again?
- Fed in play

Market Update- Large Caps dominate June (thus far) - Small-caps out of favor
- Buyers are hungry - any dip is bought
- Economic confusion - Jobs report
- NVDA - 10:1 completed (now what?)

Apple WWDC - Pins and Needles- Features will go beyond artificial intelligence to personal intelligence.
- Will protect privacy at every step.
Capabilities:
- Will enable iPhone to create language and images.Language understanding will be natural.
- New writing tools can summarize text when you are working on a blog post.
- Users can create new emojis for conversation.
- Images can be created in three styles.
Actions:
- Will allow hundreds of "actions" such as "show me my photos from last week" or "show me the podcast my mom wanted me to listen to last week."
- Apple Intelligence is powered by large language models.
- Introduces Apple Private Cloud with personalized AI.
- Siri will be able to take AI enabled actions. It will allow for more natural language.
---- Market not impressed - was hoping for BIG AI announcement from Apple.
------ Stock down on this news - then POPS to ATH on Tuesday

Elon on Apple AI
- Elon Musk said he would ban Apple Inc. devices from his companies if OpenAI’s software is integrated into the products at the operating system level.
- The remarks followed a presentation Monday by Apple Inc., when it said that customers would have access to OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot through the Siri digital assistant. Apple plans to roll out the capabilities as part of a suite of new AI features later this year.

Jobs report
- May nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000 (Briefing.com consensus 185,000).
- The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 249,000 from 237,000.
- April nonfarm payrolls revised to 165,000 from 175,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 310,000 from 315,000.
- May average hourly earnings were up 0.4%
- Unemployment rate moved up to 4%
--- YET - still HOPE for 1-2 rate cuts this year

OOPS
- Toyota - company has lost %15B market cap after false data found
- Japan's transport ministry found false data used to certify certain models a week ago on Monday.
- Other companies too - Toyota, Mazda, Suzuki, Yamaha
-- Companies falsifying data used in safety tests.
- Toyota chairman: "tested using methods that differ from the standards defined by the national authorities."
--- Collusion????

Gold - Short Supply?
- According to the World Gold Council - Gold hard to find
- New gold deposits are becoming harder to find around the world as many prospective areas have already been explored
- Gold Strategist: "I think the overwhelming story there is: after 10 years of rapid growth from around 2008, the mining industry is struggling to report sustained growth in production," said Reade.
- Bottom Line: "It's getting harder to find gold, permit it, finance it, and operate it,"

Game-Stop Already
- Shares tank 40% after another big run up - Keith Gill live stream
- Continues to post cryptic messages now that he is back
- Must be bored

Panic Buttons
- Retail giant Walmart says it is against putting panic buttons in stores - a move that the New York legislature wants to require under a new law aimed at keeping retail workers safe.
- Walmart's top corporate affairs officer told Reuters that the company opposes the panic button idea because it believes there are likely to be many false alarms.
- The panic button provision of the New York law would go into effect in 2027 for retailers with more than 500 employees nationwide.

New XBOX
- Microsoft unveiled ALL- digital versions of XBOX
- No more need for disks (take that Gamestop)
- The hardware refresh could help Xbox boost sales of its consoles which compete with Sony's PlayStation 5

CPI and PPI due this week
- CPI - expected to rise 0.1% MoM
- PPI - see above
- FED - FOMC rate decision Wednesday - would seem like they would need to be more aggressive with setting appropriate expectations

It is Balloon!
- North and South Korea sending "spy" balloons
- North is sending with pamphlets that fall on South Korea
- South Korea is mad that North Korea sending their garbage
- Built using 3D printers and components sourced online and sometimes equipped with GPS-tracking, these so-called "smart balloons" can cost up to $1,000 each.
- Most balloons contain devices pre-programmed to scatter 1,500 leaflets, 25 at a time, taking into account the hoped-for flight path, wind and other weather conditions.
- - many are just people/activists sending propaganda

Boeing
- Boeing received orders for only four new planes in May — and for the second straight month, none for its best-selling 737 Max, as fallout continues from the blowout of a side panel on a Max during a flight in January.
- The results released Tuesday compared unfavorably with Europe's Airbus, which reported orders for 27 new planes in May.
--- Is this BOEING or more related to travel slowdown?
---- BUT: Despite the slow pace of recent sales, Boeing still has a huge backlog of more than 5,600 orders.

General Odors
- GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said the company now expects sales of 200,000 to 250,000 EVs this year, down from a previously announced range of 200,000 to 300,000.
- General Motors is trimming its expected sales of all-electric vehicles this year, as U.S. adoption of EVs occurs slower than expected.
- But initiating a new buyback and increase in dividend

WOW
- Buc-ee's opens largest store spanning 75,000 square feet with 120 gas pumps
- Luling Texas

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Sinkholes forming

Memes again – Huge Moves

Economy starting to stall

Face Ripper moves into the close

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Warm Up
- Sinkholes forming
- Memes again - Huge Moves
- Economy starting to stall
- Announcing a NEW CTP

Market Update- Face Ripping - Last Friday
- Software Stocks hammered
- May finished in the green nicely
- Oil Drooping
- Roaring Kitty is back

Face Rip
- Stocks ramped on the last day of the month
- 300 points in 10 minutes to finish the day on Friday
- markets had a good month -
-- Large Cap Growth up 6% for the month
- US real estate up 5%
- Only area LataAm down for May

Sinkhole Forming Again
- MEGA Caps pulling market up - Primarily NVDA
- Monday S&P 500 Flat - S&P Equal Weight -0.53%

Best Buy Earnings
- "Sluggish Demand"
- Earnings per share: $1.20 vs. $1.08 expected Revenue: $8.85 billion vs. $8.96 billion expected
- Best Buy has noticed a pullback in purchases of discretionary items as consumers manage higher costs because of inflation.
- Shares soar

Software stocks Soft
- Salesforce plunges 20% after it posted weaker than expected revenue
- The WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund, an exchange-traded fund that tracks cloud stocks, slid 5% this week, the sharpest decline since January. Paycom, GitLab, Confluent, Snowflake and ServiceNow all lost at least 10% of their value in the downdraft.
- Dell PLUNGED - 20% too this week

Economics
- April Construction Spending -0.1% vs 0.2% Briefing.com Consensus; prior -0.2%
- May ISM Manufacturing Index 48.7 vs 49.6 Briefing.com consensus; prior 49.2
- May S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.3 vs 50.9 prelim; prior 50.0

Focus on Manufacturing (Briefing.com)
- The May ISM Manufacturing Index checked in at 48.7% (consensus 49.6%), down from 49.2% in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the May reading suggests there was a faster pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector last month.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a faster pace of contraction in manufacturing activity that will stir worries about the economy missing its mark with a soft landing.
- The New Orders Index slumped to 45.4% from 49.1%, hitting its lowest level since May 2023.
- The Prices Index dropped to 57.0% from 60.9%.
- The Employment Index increased to 51.1% from 48.6%.
- The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 42.4% from 45.4%.
- The Supplier Deliveries Index held steady at 48.9%.
- The Production Index decreased to 50.2% from 51.3%.
- The New Export Orders Index rose to 50.6% from 48.7%.

Fed Cuts - Not Happening
- According to the latest issues of Barrons
- "The Federal Reserve isn’t likely to lower interest rates in 2024. Elevated inflation, a resilient economy, and a still-strong, if softening labor market argue against the need for easing monetary policy, especially as these conditions are expected to persist through year end."

WAIT A MINUTE
- Rate cut bets for September are back a 66% probability after a slightly weaker than expected JOLTS report
- 10YR Yields @ 4.35% (Down from 4.6% last week)

GDPNow
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimate for Q2 real GDP growth is 1.8%, down from 2.7% on May 31
- Latest downward revision follows today's release of the ISM Manufacturing Index for May and Construction Spending Report for April.

As Usual - Backwards
- OPEC+ prolongs cuts for one year
- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts well into 2025 as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival U.S. production.
- Meanwhile - Crude oil prices dropped hard on the news

Emerging Markets
- We have been "constructive" on this area
- Almost half of the companies have missed analyst estimates, average profits have slumped 10% compared with the prior-year period and for every dollar of predicted earnings, companies are bringing home only 86 cents.
- Looks like at an inflection point -
- Two years ago most EM companies beat earnings by a wide margin (stocks didn't follow)

France - Rating
- Standard & Poor's (S&P) decision to downgrade its rating on France's sovereign debt should in the short term deliver more political sting than pain in financial markets.
- Days ahead of a June 9 EU parliamentary election, S&P cut France's long-term sovereign debt rating on Friday to "AA-" from "AA", citing expectations that higher than expected deficits would push up debt in the euro zone's second-biggest economy.

Boeing
- Fitch Ratings lowered its 2024 forecasts for Boeing's aircraft delivery and free cash flow on Friday as the planemaker grapples with investigations and slumping production of its strongest-selling jet.
- China also a problem halting some orders
- Meanwhile - stock up on Monday on this news"
- Still - only one of 2 global planemakers and the only one in USA

More Boeing
- A second attempt at launching Boeing's new Starliner space capsule on its inaugural test flight with NASA astronauts on board was automatically halted with minutes to go before liftoff by a computer-abort system, mission officials said.
- The scrubbed launch, capping a string of 11th-hour technical issues that ground teams worked through and resolved earlier in the countdown, adds another indefinite delay for the highly anticipated and much-delayed test flight.

Guilty Verdict Pays
- The Trump campaign said Friday it nearly doubled its single-day fundraising record after a New York jury found Donald Trump guilty in his criminal hush money trial.
- The Republican’s campaign said it raised $34.8 million from small-dollar donors in less than seven hours following the historic verdict Thursday afternoon that convicted the former president of 34 counts of falsifying business records.

What is With Jeans?
- GAP rose nearly 30% post earnings
- the apparel company lifted its full-year operating income forecast on the heels of a first-quarter earnings beat. Gap executives now expect operating income to grow roughly 40%, compared with a previous estimate that called for low-to-mid teens expansion.
- We also saw a similar move for ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch

Proves the Point
- Give out FREE or CHEAP Money :
- Royal Caribbean +2.2% cruising to a new all-time high today; stock has been in a steady uptrend since late October
- HUGE debt load -

Roaring Kitty
- Posted screenshot of his holdings - Supposedly, he still owned 5 million shares of GameStop and 120,000 call options with a strike price of $20 that expire on June 21, the screenshot showed.
- Stock went up as much as 80% Monday
- Profit of $25M in one day?
- NOW E-trade looking to ban his account from trading on their platform - what gives?

NYSE Glitch
- Share of Bershire hataway seems to loose 99% of its value on Monday - but is was a mere glitch

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Short Week – 4 days of trading – then EOM

The Miracle Flight – I have witnesses this with my own eyes

Cruise anyone?

Global Warming – New Info In

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Warm Up
- Short Week - 4 days of trading - then EOM
- The Miracle Flight - I have witnesses this with my own eyes
- Cruise anyone?
- Global Warming - New Info In

Market Update- 40,000 ! Then we fail
- Fed Officials Hawkish behind closed doors
- BBQFlation
- Split Excitement!
- Hindenburg Omen

Fed - Two Faced
- Federal Reserve officials grew more concerned at their most recent meeting about inflation, with members indicating that they lacked the confidence to move forward on interest rate reductions.
- Minutes from the April 30-May 1 policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee released Wednesday indicated apprehension from policymakers about when it would be time to ease.
- The meeting followed a slew of readings that showed inflation was more stubborn than officials had expected to start 2024.

BBQFlation
- Your Memorial Day barbecue will cost upward of 10 percent more than it did this time last year according to Datasembly
- Datasembly follows the cost of groceries across the country every week. Its recently released data points to this year's Memorial Day festivities costing the average American family about $30.18 or 10.19% more than 2023.
- Burgers jumped from $7.04 in 2023 to $8.07 in 2024, or a change of 14.63% in cost. Hamburger buns cost two cents more, from $3.04 on average to $3.06.

Hindenburg Omen
- Indicator was triggered last week.
- only right about 25% of the time
- Was thought to be able to predict market crashes - let's see what happens.

FED HEAD
- The Federal Reserve should wait for significant progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.
- Asked what conditions were needed for the Fed to cut rates once or twice this year, Kashkari said: “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.”
- He said the central bank could potentially even hike rates if inflation fails to come down further. “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point,” Kashkari added.

Could we finally get relief from these thieves?
- The U.S. Department of Justice is suing to break up Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, over alleged antitrust violations.
- The lawsuit, joined by 30 states and filed Thursday, follows a DOJ investigation into whether Live Nation maintains a monopoly in the ticketing industry, a probe launched in 2022 and bolstered by fan complaints following a botched roll out for tickets to Taylor Swift's Eras tour.
- In a statement, Live Nation said the DOJ's allegations of a monopoly are "absurd."
- "The DOJ's complaint attempts to portray Live Nation and Ticketmaster as the cause of fan frustration with the live entertainment industry. It blames concert promoters and ticketing companies—neither of which control ticket prices—for high ticket prices. It ignores everything that is actually responsible for higher ticket prices, from increasing production costs to artist popularity, to 24/7 online ticket scalping that reveals the public's willingness to pay far more than primary tickets cost," said Dan Wall, Live Nation executive vice president for corporate and regulatory affairs.

DONATIONS- New Shirt Design?

Miracle Flights
- The 1986 Air Carrier Access Act requires airlines to provide a wheelchair to passengers with disabilities at the airport. The problem: Many travelers are faking it, Frontier Airlines CEO Barry Biffle says.
- "There is massive, rampant abuse of special services. There are people using wheelchair assistance who don't need it at all," Biffle said at a Wings Club luncheon on Thursday in New York.
- He said he had seen Frontier flights where 20 people were brought to the plane with wheelchairs, but only three wheelchairs were used upon arrival.
- It costs the airline between $30 and $35 each time a customer requests a wheelchair, Biffle said, and abuse of the service leads to delays for travelers with genuine need for assistance.

More Airline
- Boeing revealed on Friday that it’s seen a 500% increase in the number of employee submissions about quality and safety concerns during the first two months of 2024 compared to the same period a year ago.
- Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg says that climate change is one of the culprits behind an increase in flight turbulence.
- “The reality is, the effects of climate change are already upon us in terms of our transportation,” Buttigieg said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, forecasting that turbulence is something that will continue to “affect American travelers, whether here or abroad.”

Still Going
- Proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis said on Saturday it has urged Tesla shareholders to reject a $56 billion pay package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, which if passed would be the largest pay package for a CEO in corporate America.
- The report cited reasons like the "excessive size" of the pay deal, the dilutive effect upon exercise and the concentration of ownership. It also mentioned Musk's "slate of extraordinarily time-consuming projects" which have expanded with his high-profile purchase of Twitter, now known as X.

Follow Up - SEC ETH ETF
- The SEC approved a rule change that would pave the way for ETFs that buy and hold ether, one of the world's largest cryptocurrencies.
- The decision comes less than six months after the SEC approved bitcoin ETFs. Those funds have proven to be a big success for the industry, with net inflows already surpassing $12 billion, according to FactSet.

NVDA Earnings
- Earnings Per Share: $6.12 adjusted vs. $5.59 adjusted, per LSEG consensus estimates.
- Revenue: $26.04 billion vs. $24.65 billion expected by LSEG
- Nvidia said it expected sales of $28 billion in the current quarter. Wall Street was anticipating earnings per share of $5.95 on sales of $26.61 billion, according to LSEG.
- 10:1 Stock Split and dividend increase
- Looking to go into the DJIA?
- Shares moved > $1,000 after the very upbeat report

NVDA Spilt
- 10:1 on June 7th
- What happens after that? (Shares and options cheaper)

Target Earnings
- Target on Wednesday posted a year-over-year sales decline and missed Wall Street’s earnings estimates, as consumers fatigued from high prices bought both fewer discretionary items and groceries.
- Target stuck with its prior full-year forecast, saying it expects comparable sales will range from flat to up 2% and adjusted earnings per share will be $8.60 to $9.60. Company leaders said the retailer is on track to return to sales growth in the second quarter.
- Earnings per share: $2.03 vs. $2.06 expected
- Revenue: $24.53 billion vs. $24.52 billion expected
- It marked the first time since November 2022 that Target missed earnings expectations.
- Shares of the company closed about 8% lower on Wednesday.

Cruise Lines Making a comeback?
-Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. raised its full-year 2024 EPS guidance for the second time in May 2024 at its Investor Day. While the cruise industry was the epicenter during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s one of the remaining industries to experience positive normalization as the travel boom continues to flourish.
- Norwegian Cruise Line reported a Q1 2024 EPS beat of nine cents and revenue growth of 20.3% YOY to $2.19 billion, falling short of $2.23 billion.
- Norwegian Cruise Line raised its full-year 2024 EPS estimates twice in May to $1.43 versus $1.26 consensus estimates.

PSA from GameStop and AMC
- Thank you to all of the suckers that bought our stocks during the recent run0up. We were ready this time and sold right into your buying frenzy. At Gamestop, the company took in more than $1 billion at a nosebleed valuation, right before shares tumbled back to reality.

T+1
-Starting today, trades of stocks and several other securities will need to be settled by the end of the next business day. Settlement involves the actual swap of money for a security. This so-called “T+1 settlement” is an acceleration of the previous process, which allowed for two business days.
- The move is the latest evolution to make the plumbing of Wall Street look more like the front-end, which is increasingly moving toward trading apps and around-the-clock markets.

Stock Market Trivia
- Where's the oldest stock exchange in the world? The Antwerp Belgium Bourse opened its doors in 1460 and kept going until 1997.
- What was the first exchange in the US? Philadelphia Stock Exchange, founded in 1790, predated the NYSE by two years.
- What was the first listed company on the NYSE? Bank of New York Shares of the Bank of New York were traded under the fabled buttonwood tree on Wall Street in 1792.
- What's the name for the method of communications used by stock traders frantically running around a trading floor and using hand signals? Open outcry is the (perhaps soon-to-be extinct) way to communicate transactions through shouting and hand signals.
- What "Greed is good" character is Michael Douglas reprising for Oliver Stone? Gordon Gekko

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Big Week – Big Earnings on Wednesday

Oil Unusually stable

Helicopter Accident – Another “fog” incident?

Meme stocks come back to earth

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Warm Up
- Big Week - Big Earnings on Wednesday
- Oil Unusually stable
- Helicopter Accident - Another "fog" incident?
- Meme stocks come back to earth
- We have an Osbourne Effect

Market Update- 40,000 ! Get the party hats!
- ATH, ATH, ATH
- Commods - Copper and Gold (AND silver)
- VIX - lowest since 2019
- Someone better against Tesla (Big name)

Banks
- The Federal Reserve and two other U.S. regulators are moving toward a new plan that would significantly reduce a nearly 20% mandated increase in capital for the country's biggest banks following lobbying efforts by industry CEOs like JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, the Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend.
- Required increases in capital for banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs meant to ensure they have sufficient buffers to absorb potential losses — would on average be about as much as originally floated, the Journal added.
- Top officials from all three agencies involved in the pending capital rules — the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — are still discussing substantive and technical revisions and there is no guarantee that an agreement will be reached, the WSJ reported.

Goodbye?
- In a response to a question Monday about the bank's succession planning, Dimon indicated that his expected tenure is less than five more years
- That's a key change from Dimon's previous responses to succession questions, in which his standard answer had been that retirement was perpetually five years away.
- Stock dropped 4% on that conversation

No Direction - Grasping ....
- Snap Inc. Chief Executive Officer Evan Spiegel said he’s investing more aggressively in bringing artificial intelligence and machine learning to Snapchat to make it more interesting for its users, the next major shift after years spent overhauling its advertising business.
- “There was a recognition that we’d fallen behind the curve on the machine learning side, which, to some degree, was reflected in the business performance,” Spiegel said in an interview. “We needed to improve there and bring together some of our most senior machine learning folks to just talk about what it would look like for us to get to state of the art and really invest.”

Meanwhile
- VIX is sagging
- The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500, closed Friday at the lowest level since November 2019 as the benchmark stock index traded in a tight range just below the all-time high.
- Aside from an April pop, the VIX has been muted for much of 2024 as shares climbed.

VIX Chart

Interesting
- Online home goods retailer Wayfair is opening its first namesake store, near Chicago, following a string of other digitally native companies that have turned to brick-and-mortar for growth.
- So they think the low cost failed execution is going to do better in the higher cost brick and mortar arena?
- The company says people need to still sit in and try furniture.... (WHAT?)

AI - Here we go
- OpenAI has disbanded its team focused on the long-term risks of artificial intelligence just one year after the company announced the group, a source familiar with the situation confirmed to CNBC on Friday.
- News of Sutskever's and Leike's departures, and the dissolution of the superalignment team, come days after OpenAI launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with an updated user interface, the company's latest effort to expand the use of its popular chatbot.

NVDA Earnings Tomorrow
- Tech analysts are all excited that this is going to be another amazing quarter
- Stock pushing up from April lows on belief that the AI trade is still happening and gaining strength

More NVDA (BIG!)
- Amazon halted orders of key Nvidia (NVDA) chip because they want to wait for updated version, according to FT
--- Osbourne Effect?
---- The Osborne effect is a social phenomenon of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current, soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company's announcing a future product prematurely. It is an example of cannibalization.
--- The site reports Nvidia will begin production of Blackwell in the second half of 2024 and enter the market in earnest in 2025 with the goal of shipping 40,000 units by next year
- This new report adds several details regarding Nvidia's launch plans, including that the flagship configuration will be a 72-chip cabinet that will reportedly sell for a whopping $3 million.
- Nvidia is expected to earn $30 billion from this one product alone through 2025.

MJ
- he U.S. Justice Department on Thursday unveiled a historic proposal to ease restrictions on marijuana, a rule that if enacted would also enable more research on its medicinal benefits.
- The proposal, first announced in April, would reclassify cannabis from a so-called schedule one drug to a schedule three. Schedule one drugs, such as heroin, are considered highly addictive with no medical benefits, while schedule three drugs are considered to have a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.
- "Additionally, no safety concerns were identified in the FDA’s review that would indicate that medical use of marijuana poses unacceptably high safety risks," the proposal says.
- Still not 100% done it appears

MEME
- Gamestop - back to ground level but...
- The initial move caused losses of $1 billion for short sellers - hopefully they reloaded
- AMC - back to reality as we know company has ongoing plan to sell into price spikes in open market

Crypto
- Something going on with ETH -
--- Approval or some other move by SEC was expected this week -
---- Delay or Approval of ETF would be good (ETH spiking 10% late afternoon Monday)
- SEC seems to be looking for a revised plan by ETF creators on ETH - (not bad news at all)

Big Short
- Big Short’ trader Danny Moses is still betting against Tesla, says core business is ‘falling apart’
- Big sale in China - heavy discounts now

US Steel BOD - Pressing Nippon Steel Offer
- Correcting the record...
- Letter from BOD: For all the reasons noted above, this is not only the best deal for U. S. Steel and its stockholders, but also for our employees, the communities in which we operate, our customers, U.S. national security and the American economy overall. We look forward to closing in the second half of this year and moving forward together with NSC as the “Best Steelmaker with World-Leading Capabilities.”- Will this happen?

TRUMP Stock
- Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Donald Trump's Truth Social platform, disclosed a net loss of $327.6 million in the first quarter of the year, with total revenue at $770,500, according to its earnings report, filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
- TMTG CEO Devin Nunes said that the company is exploring "a wide array of initiatives and innovations to build out the Truth Social platform including potential mergers and acquisitions activities" in a statement on Monday. (Horseshit)

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Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation

PPI HOT – Market does not care

A Meme stock face ripper!

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Warm Up
- Inflation reports PPI today and CPI tomorrow
- Sentiment is dropping - wondering why
- Meme stock face ripper
- EV days - losses not acceptable
- PPI and CPI this week

Market Update- Another good week - seems like coming out of downturn
- Rates down- 10Y Treas falling over past week
- S&P 500 near record
- Emerging markets breaking out of long consolidation
- PPI HOT - Market does not care

Fed talk
- Fed's Goolsbee and Kashkari
- There has been cross currents in the data.
- There has been some bumps in the road on inflation in 2024.
- The Fed is in a wait and see mode
- Cautious about how restrictive policy is.
- More data is needed before they can predict a rate cut.
- There is a high bar for another rate hike, but not ruling it out.
- Leases trending up is a concerning signal.
----- What does any of that tell us?
------ We need to start a movement to SHUT THE FED UP (STFU)

Latest Inflation Readings
- The Producer Price index for final demand increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March. The index for final demand, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline (from 0.2%) in March.
- On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 2.2%, marking the largest increase since April 2023, while the index for final demand, excluding food and energy, was up 2.4%, unchanged from March.
- The key takeaway from the report is that nearly three quarters of the increase in final demand prices was due to a 0.6% increase in the index for final demand services, something that will detract from the Fed's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to its 2% target.

Powell speaking AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he doesn't think next rate move will be a hike, more likely a hold; time will tell if policy is sufficiently restrictive; PPI reading was quite mixed

Getting AI Overload
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says "not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me"

Sentiment
- Consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months as Americans cited concerns about stubbornly high inflation and interest rates and fears that unemployment could rise
- May Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 67.4 vs 76.5 Briefing.com consensus; April Final was 77.2

Fed Put
- Markets melting up since last Powell comments
- There is a new spin on the old "Fed put." The latter rested on an unspoken assurance that the Fed would step in with easier policy to forestall a market meltdown.
- The new version doesn't guarantee a rate cut soon, but it has created an unspoken assurance that market participants can trade around the idea that the next monetary policy move is likely to be a rate cut.

Meme Stocks
- Gamestock was up 80% and many of the other names moving hard
--- Seems like the original Gamestock dude - Roaring Kitty put out a tweet on Monday and the stock went bananas...

More Squeeze
- Shares of the vaccine maker soared 99% Friday, after the company signed a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi that includes commercializing a combined Covid-19 and flu shot.
- The move boosts a stock that had plunged about 99% — prior to the deal — from its 2021 peak amid waning demand for its Covid vaccine.

AMC - NICE FELLAS!
- AMC has a fundraising deal known as an at-the-market offering that lets it create new shares opportunistically to sell to buyers in the open market. The deal is part of AMC’s long-term effort to secure the capital needed to execute its turnaround, even if that means diluting investors seeking to cash in on short-term rallies.

NeuralLink
- Elon Musk's startup Neuralink on Wednesday said part of its brain implant malfunctioned after it put the system in a human patient for the first time.
- In January, Neuralink implanted the device in a 29-year-old patient named Noland Arbaugh as part of a study to test its safety.
- Seems that several of the "threads" that connect devise to the brain have retracted from patients brain
- Neuralink did not disclose how many threads retracted from the tissue.

More Musk
- U.S. prosecutors are examining whether Tesla committed securities or wire fraud by misleading investors and consumers about its electric vehicles’ self-driving capabilities, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
- Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems assist with steering, braking and lane changes - but are not fully autonomous. While Tesla has warned drivers to stay ready to take over driving, the Justice Department is examining other statements by Tesla and Chief Executive Elon Musk suggesting its cars can drive themselves.
- Eventually something will stick

Vapes
- Five million disposable vapes are thrown away each week, equal to the lithium batteries of 5,000 electric vehicles over the course of the year, the government said.
- The U.K. government on Monday announced it will ban disposable vapes, citing an "alarming rise" in the number of young people using them.

Bad Boys
- High-end brothels in the Boston and eastern Virginia regions provided sex for pay to "elected officials, high tech and pharmaceutical executives, doctors, military officers, government contractors that possess security clearances, professors
- Three people were arrested in connection with operating the pricey sex shops, which required "interested sex buyers" to provide employer information and references before booking sessions with prostitutes, authorities said.
- The brothels charged customers about $350 to "upwards of $600 per hour depending on the services and were paid in cash," according to the U.S. Attorney's Office for Massachusetts, which is prosecuting the defendants.

Follow Up - UNH Hack
- UnitedHealth Group said on Monday that hackers stole health and personal data of potentially a "substantial proportion" of Americans from its systems in February, as the largest U.S. health insurer scrambles to contain the damage.
- The disclosure suggests patients' healthcare information remains vulnerable. An initial review of the compromised data showed files with protected health information or personally identifiable information "which could cover a substantial proportion of people in America," the company said in a statement on its website.

Drink Less?
- Consumers are choosing an alcohol-free lifestyle either part-time or all of the time, and 41% of consumers surveyed say they intend on drinking even less in 2024, according to a report published by NC Solutions.
- Regarding the survey, 1,000 Americans 21 years of age and older were questioned on their current drinking habits and future plans for alcohol consumption.
- Gen Z was recognized as the generation that started the recent "sober conscious" movement, and 42% of those surveyed believe they have gestured toward the change and turned it into a trend.
- Yes BUT!!!!!!!!!! They are smoking weed in place of....

McDonalds
- McDonald’s is working to introduce a value meal in U.S. stores to help offset an increasingly challenging environment for consumers.
- The $5 meal could include four items: a McChicken or McDouble, four-piece chicken nuggets, fries and a drink.
- The potential new offering comes at a time when low-income consumers are beginning to pull back on spending, particularly at fast-food brands.
- “Consumers continue to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending, which is putting pressure on the [quick-service restaurant] industry,” CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company’s earnings call on April 30.
- - Many Franchise owners balking

Trump Media - Insider Trading
- So much bad stuff surrounds this stock
- A financial executive was convicted Thursday of enabling his boss and others to make over $22 million illegally by trading off his tips ahead of the public announcement that an acquisition firm was taking former President Donald Trump’s media company public.
- Garelicks' co-defendants pleaded guilty before trial, admitting that they made over $22 million illegally

Apple Worm
- A newly released ad promoting Apple's new iPad Pro has struck quite a nerve online.
- The ad, which was released by the tech giant Tuesday, shows a hydraulic press crushing just about every creative instrument artists and consumers have used over the years — from a piano and record player, to piles of paint, books, cameras and relics of arcade games. Resulting from the destruction? A pristine new iPad Pro.
- Message - Crushing human creativity
- The ad had been pulled back and Apple has issues and apology

OpenAI - New Model
- OpenAI on Monday launched a new AI model and desktop version of ChatGPT, along with a new user interface.
- The update brings GPT-4 to everyone, including OpenAI’s free users, CTO Mira Murati said in a livestreamed event.
- She added that the new model, GPT-4o, is “much faster,” with improved capabilities in text, video and audio.

More Open AI - Rumors
- OpenAI plans to announce its artificial intelligence-powered search product on Monday, according to two sources familiar with the matter, raising the stakes in its competition with search king Google.
Seems that this was fleeting - Google got hit for 2% on the headline, but when Altman clarified, Google shares recovered.

Ford EV
- Ford Cuts Battery Orders as EV Losses Top $100,000 Per Car
- Ford Motor Co. has begun cutting orders from battery suppliers to stem growing electric-vehicle losses, according to people familiar with the matter, as it throttles back ambitions in a rapidly decelerating market for plug-in models.

Softbank
- SoftBank posted a 7.24 billion Japanese yen ($4.6 billion) gain on its Vision Fund in the fiscal year ended March, the first time the flagship tech investment arm has been in the black since 2021.
- SoftBank's flagship tech investment arm, the Vision Fund, had a tough time in the fiscal year that ended in March 2023, posting a record loss of around $32 billion amid a slump in tech stock prices and the souring of some of the business' bets in China.

Excitement Around WWDC
- At its WWDC keynote on June 10, Apple is expected to reveal a series of AI tools, including an improved version of ?Siri? that uses generative AI to be more conversational and capable, with the ability to "chat" with users instead of just responding to individual queries.
- Apple plans to market this revamped version of ?Siri? as a more security-focused alternative to rival AI services|- Apple is also working to improve how Siri handles tasks such as setting timers, creating calendar appointments, adding items to Reminders, and summarizing text.

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Earnings season – better and stats

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Warm Up
- Earnings season - better and stats
- BIGGEST BUYBACK EVER
- We are gauging investor sentiment --
--- Remember - Confidence and Sentiment (Cheer-leading helps)
- Announcing the WINNER CTP for Apple
- Fake Work?

Market Update- If down - buy.... Names that were hammered due to earnings catching bids again
- Follow up - Utilities
- Fed Speaks - Can't stop the Dove
- Employment - Excitement about the Unemployment Rate

Earnings Season Update:
- Overall, 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2024 to date.
- Of these companies, 77% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 74%.
- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 7.5% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 8.5% but above the 10-year average of 6.7%
- Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Communication Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Information Technology sectors.
- Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings: Energy, Health Care, and Materials.
- Revenue - up again - estimated to be 4.1% when all said and done.
- - If 4.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Fake Work
- An investor at famed Silicon Valley firm Andreessen Horowitz is the latest VC to get involved in the debate around "fake work" in the tech industry.
- Ulevitch went on to point the finger at Google specifically, calling it "an amazing example."
- "I don't think it's crazy to believe that half the white-collar staff at Google probably does no real work," he said. "The company has spent billions and billions of dollars per year on projects that go nowhere for over a decade, and all that money could have been returned to shareholders who have retirement accounts."
- Marc Andreessen has criticized a managerial "laptop class" and tweeted in 2022, "The good big companies are overstaffed by 2x. The bad big companies are overstaffed by 4x or more."

Buy 'em
- Companies that took a hit after earnings (NFLX, AMD) getting bid again
- NFLX gapped lower from ~$608 to $551 and now $592
- AMD dropped from $160 to $140 and now $156
- SPY , IWM and QQQ- Now above the 50day Moving average again

Follow Up - Utilities
- Just wanted to provide this idea again - Data Warehouses and other AI Power hungry places
--- Symbol list of some utilities to look at further - SO, NEE, EXC, CMS
- Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone.
- After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation's vehicle fleet.
- AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030

Utilities ETF

Apple - Earnings
- Nothing great in the earnings.
--- A few pockets of sunshine....
--- Raises dividend and $110 BILLION buyback - largest buyback EVER for ANY company
---- Berkshire cut stake by 13% (Not sure if is simply reducing position after massive growth or other decision)

SAVE SAVE
- Earnings not paining a pretty picture
- Blaming on issues with Pratt & Whitney due to manufacturing issues with Geared TurboFan engines
- Outlook by management was less than expected
- - Company planing on providing strategic updates in the next couple of months - But struggling..
----- Makes no sense that the JetBlue deal was blocked...

Yuck
- Beyond Meat announces another Beyond Meat product will be available at Whole Foods Market stores nationwide with the addition of the smash-style Beyond Stack Burger
-- Does that sound good?

Sentiment
- The Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) decreased to 48.87 in April, down from its score of 51.65 in March
- The reading for the four-week period ending April 26, 2024, ranks "moderate low" compared to historic averages as investment exposure decreased. U.S. equity markets fell during the April STAX period and indices experienced several single-day losses of greater than 2% following disappointing economic data releases.
- Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
- Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included: Walt Disney Co. (DIS) PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) Devon Energy Corp. (DVN) Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY)

Buyers Buying
- Hon Hai Precision (AKA FoxConn) The company, which assembles the majority of Apple Inc.’s smartphones, reported a 19% rise in monthly sales to NT$510.9 billion ($15.8 billion), compared with revenue of NT$429.2 billion in April 2023.
- The company said in a statement Sunday that April revenue climbed to a record for the month.
- This report raises expectations for iPhone sales while AI-related business booms. (although does not actually line up with Apple's earnings call)

On The Other Hand
- South Korea's factory output fell in March by the most in 15 months, government data showed on Tuesday, missing market expectations.
- The industrial production index fell 3.2% from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a gain of 2.9% in February and compared with a rise of 0.6% tipped in a Reuters survey of economists.
- It was the fastest monthly fall since December 2022 and caused by declines in metal processing and electronic parts, according to Statistics Korea.

Carvana
- The father-son duo behind Carvana Co. have seen their fortunes rebound as shares of the Phoenix-based online used-car dealer have surged more than 3,000% from historic lows.
- Ernie Garcia II and Ernie Garcia III have added more than $11 billion in combined net worth since December 2022, when Carvana stock fell below $4 a share as rising interest rates sapped sales and the company was forced to restructure debt.
- Carvana shares jumped 34% on Thursday to the highest in more than two years after the company reported stronger first-quarter earnings with revenue topping analysts’ expectations.

Savings - Gone
- US households have exhausted the pile of cash squirreled away during the pandemic
The latest estimates of overall pandemic excess savings remaining in the US economy have turned negative, suggesting that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” (San Francisco Fed economists)

AND - Social Security
- According to SS Trustees: The trust funds the Social Security Administration relies on to pay benefits are now projected to run out in 2035, one year later than previously projected
- The Social Security trustees credited the slightly improved outlook to more people contributing to the program amid a strong economy, low unemployment and higher job and wage growth.

AI Reality
- ServiceNow Inc.’s new generative AI-focused product tier will take time to boost financial results, executives said, sending a lukewarm message to investors looking for big impact from the highly hyped technology.
- “While it might take some time to have a material impact to the top line, the opportunity is massive

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Earnings season winners and losers.

Episode 700 – been a great run – plenty more to come.

New airline regulations and what that means to all of us.

Inflation – its not over just yet.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Show #700
- Guess the date of EPISODE #1 (Show # 1 was Sep 16, 2008)
- - No Agenda episode #1 - October 26, 2007
--- The Disciplined Investor Podcast show #1 - Mar 02, 2007
- ALL economic series showing signs of inflation
- The great money in God - Top Wealthiest Pastors
- Fiducuary rules fo Retirment Plans

Market Update- Shaking off some and smacking others - earnings season underway
- April not a great month for US equities - April now in the books
- Earnings seasons - winners and losers
- Yields on I Bonds Updated
- European stocks end April down 1.49%, posting first negative month since October

Derivative AI Investing
- Secondary play - Utilities
- We spoke of the huge demand for electricity/power from any source to power datacenters
- Investors looking for a unique way into the stock market’s artificial intelligence boom are finding an intriguing bank shot in what’s traditionally the most boring corner of the equities universe: utilities.
- Southern Company, NextEra, Excelon, CMS Energy also Eaton, Hubbell
-- Bad couple years as this is an interest sensitive sector - but massive consumption increase coming

Bird Flu in Milk
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed milking cows in Colorado tested positive for Bird Flu, following earlier infections in Texas, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, Idaho, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Dakota.
- Additional tests of milk showed that pasteurization killed the bird flu virus, federal health officials said on Friday, as Colorado became the ninth U.S. state to report an infected dairy herd.
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late on Friday said preliminary results from gold-standard PCR testing showed pasteurization killed the virus in milk and baby formula. It did not say how many milk products it had tested but added that it plans to do more testing on 297 products from 38 states.

Good Money in God
- Most Wealth Pastors
- Benny Hinn, 71 Estimated net worth: US$60 million
Joel Osteen, 61 Estimated net worth: US$100 million
- Kenneth Copeland, 87 Estimated net worth: US$300 million

Apple Headset and More
- Earnings coming May 2
- Big slowdown in sales in China has been widely telegraphed
- Not much excitement about the product line or any innovation at this point
- AI is going to be conversation they will start to help push shares
- Apple slashes Vision Pro production, cancels 2025 model in response to plummeting demand
-- Analysts are cutting their sales for the Vision Pro in HALF!
- - Apple may decide not to release a new model in 2025 - was expecting a cheaper version possibly

Back to Inflation
- Inflation showed little signs of letting up in March, with a key barometer the Federal Reserve watches closely showing that price pressures remain elevated.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.
- Consumers showed they are still spending despite the elevated price level. Personal spending rose 0.8% on the month, a touch higher even than the 0.7% estimate. Personal income increased 0.5%, in line with expectations and higher than the 0.3% increase in February.
- GDP Report showed more pricing pressures
- Overall, 100% of recent reports showed that the inflation monster is not dead

More Economics
- U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year, and prices rose at a faster pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
- Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- The price index for GDP, sometimes called the "chain-weighted" level, increased at a 3.1% rate, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 3% increase.
- - - SO, we have slowing GDP and prices that are staying high - NOT Stagflation yet, but getting worrisone.
--- Stagflation (wiki): In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment.

Case Shiller
- February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.3% vs. 6.7% Briefing.com consensus; prior 6.6%

Companies:
- Shares of Hertz Global slumped 24% and were on track for their sharpest one-day percentage fall on record last Thursday after the company reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, highlighting its struggles with the EV rental business (We covered this a couple months ago)
- The company is slimming down the business due to weak demand, with plans to sell 10,000 more EVs, taking its total planned sales to 30,000 this year. Higher repair costs also weighed on the company's overall fleet maintenance expenses.
- Hertz said it took a $588 million hit in vehicle depreciation costs during the quarter, of which $195 million was related to EVs held for sale.
- Alphabet (Google) shares rallied on Friday after the company reported results that topped analysts' estimates, showed soaring profits in its cloud division and announced its first dividend and a big buyback increase ($70 BILLION)
- Net income jumped 57% to $23.66 billion, or $1.89 a share, from $15.05 billion, or $1.17 a share, a year earlier.
- Operating income in Google's cloud business more than quadrupled to $900 million, showing that the company is finally generating substantial profits after pouring money into the business for years to keep up with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure.
- - The jump lifted Alphabet's market cap past $2 trillion to an ALL TIME HIGH
- Microsoft - In its earnings report last Thursday, Microsoft said capital expenditures jumped 79% from a year earlier to $14 billion. The company is spending much faster than it's increasing revenue — sales climbed 17% in the period.
- Generally Microsoft put up good numbers - could be one of the "ready to go" AI play with Co-Pilot actually bringing in $$ for the company.
--- Microsoft posted a 17% increase in revenue, to $61.9 billion, with $21.9 billion in profits, up 20%, and earnings of $2.94 per share.
- Facebook (META): Mark Zuckerberg's net worth plunged by $18 billion Thursday after comments from the Meta CEO on the earnings call sent his company's stock price to its steepest decline since October 2022.
- While Meta beat expectations on revenue and profit but delivered a lighter-than-expected revenue forecast. Zuckerberg told investors that the company would continue to spend billions of dollars investing in areas like artificial intelligence and the metaverse, even though Meta counts on advertising for 98% of its revenue.
- - Investors freaking out a bit as they are worried that the money spend is going to get out of control again - Like Zuk did with the Metaverse.
- "We've historically seen a lot of volatility in our stock during this phase of our product playbook where we're investing in scaling a new product but aren't yet monetizing it," Zuckerberg said on the call.
---- ZUCK: And I also expect to see a multi?year investment cycle before we’ve fully scaled Meta AI, business AIs, and more into the profitable services I expect as well.
- - - - Translated - what no one else is saying - going to take a VERY long time to monetize whatever this AI things actually is.
- Tesla* stock popped nicely even though the company reported a miserable quarter and outlook was not so good.
---- Perhaps the worst is over ? That is what investors must be thinking. (little in that report was really encouraging)

More Tesla
-Shares of Tesla rose sharply on Monday, their best day since March 2021, after the electric carmaker passed a significant milestone to roll out its advanced driver-assistance technology in China.
- The company’s share price closed up 15% as investors reacted to news surrounding Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s visit to China.
- Tesla on Sunday said local Chinese authorities removed restrictions on its cars after passing the country’s data security requirements.

Old is New?
- Ford Motor Co posted first-quarter earnings last Wednesday that beat Wall Street's expectations, bolstered by a strong performance in its commercial vehicle division and an increase in its hybrid vehicle sales.
- The company said it expects to achieve the higher end of its projected annual guidance of $10 billion to $12 billion in earnings before interest and taxes.
- The carmaker recorded a $1.3 billion operating loss for its EV and software division in the first quarter. More broadly, executives expect this section of the company to sustain a pre-tax loss of between $5 billion to $5.5 billion for the year.
- Ford shares rose slightly then slipped - should move higher if markets cooperate

New Airline Regulations
- The U.S. Transportation Department finalized new rules Wednesday requiring upfront disclosure of airline fees and mandates quick cash refunds for canceled flights, as well as for delayed baggage or inoperative services like onboard Wi-Fi.
- The rules, which were nearly three years in the works, will require airlines and ticket agents to tell consumers upfront about baggage or change and cancellation fees. The department said consumers are expected to save $543 million annually in excess airline fees.
- The refund rules apply to cancelled flights by carriers regardless of the reason including if it is because of weather. But passengers are not entitled to refunds if they are rebooked and travel on another flight
- The government will also require airlines to refund baggage fees if bags are not delivered within 12 hours of domestic flights arriving or 15 to 30 hours of their international flight arrivals, as well as for services that do not work or are not provided. Airlines must promptly and automatically issue refunds if flights are canceled.
- Airlines will find ways to make up the money - the cost factors will be made up with greater inconvenience somehow and higher fares.

McDonald's - Warning
- McDonald’s missed quarterly earnings estimates as same-store sales fell short of expectations.
- Boycotts over the conflict in Gaza weighed on the chain’s Middle East sales again.
- Higher prices have helped McDonald’s revenue, but scared away some low-income customers.
- Discussed how inflation is a problem and higher wages eating into profitability (Californian Min wag $20)
- Earnings per share: $2.70 adjusted vs. $2.72 expected
- Revenue: $6.17 billion vs. $6.16 billion expected

IBonds
- Treasury released the next 6 month rate - 4.28%
-- Wonder how this will look moving forward

YEN
- Japan doesn't really care...

Sticker Shock

Good news for 401k Holders - and a warning
- The Biden administration issued a final rule on Tuesday that cracks down on the investment advice that advisors, brokers, insurance agents and others give to retirement savers.
- The U.S. Department of Labor regulation — which follows a rule proposal in October — aims to ensure that investment recommendations are in savers' best interests, according to agency officials.
- In legal terms, the final rule expands the scope of when a broker, advisor or other intermediary must act as a "fiduciary," meaning they are required to give advice that puts the client first.
---- This is important for those with 401ks and other retirement plans that are looking for advice - especially from those people selling high commission products

MJ
- Pot stocks powering higher following reports the DEA will soon reclassify marijuana from a Schedule I drug to a Schedule III drug that can be lawfully prescribed as medication.

MSOX +43%, CGC +36%, TLRY +30%, LFLY +30%, MAPS +23%, ACB +22%, MSOS +22%, MJ +18%, CRON +12%

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Markets having a tough time and a big week of data is coming.

Got the 5% correction – is there more?

M&A – Another deal dies

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Warm Up
- Markets having a tough time
- Happy Passover!
- SHOW 700 coming up!
- Happy belated 420 Day to our fine smoky listeners
- Jumping to Conclusions
- We have a limerick!

Market Update- Big week(s) coming for economics
- Got the 5% correction - is there more?
- M&A - Another deal dies
- Earnings - Tech on deck
- Historic Treasury Auction this week - need to pay the bills since tax receipts not doing it and lots of debt outstanding

Who Would think???
- UK - FTSE 100 at all-time high!

Recap:
- Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Tesla Inc., all of which are among the so-called Magnificent Seven group of tech giants, will report THIS WEEK week.
- Technology stocks are selling off, with the Nasdaq 100 Index registering its biggest weekly drop since November 2022 in the midst of a four-week losing streak, its longest since December 2022.
- Even AI darling Nvidia Corp. is getting hit, plunging 10% on Friday and wiping out $212 billion in market value for its worst day since the Covid pandemic in March 2020.

MAG7 Profit Outlook
- But hope is on the horizon. Profits for the Mag Seven — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia — are forecast to rise 38% in the first quarter from a year ago, dwarfing the overall S&P 500’s 2.4% anticipated year-over-year earnings growth, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
- Around 178 S&P 500 companies — representing more than 40% of the index’s market capitalization — will post results next week. But the biggest expectations are for megacap tech firms.
= = Nvidia, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk dubbed “the most important stock on planet Earth,” doesn’t report its earnings for another month.

Tesla
- Stock down a lot - DOWN 43% YTD
- Down 65% from high set November 2021
- Tesla is recalling nearly 3,900 of its Cybertrucks due to an issue with the vehicle's accelerator pedal.
- The recall, announced Wednesday, was prompted by accelerator pedal pads in the trucks that "may dislodge and cause the pedal to become trapped by the interior trim,"
- All of the 3,878 of the 2024 Cybertrucks that Tesla built between Nov. 13 and April 4 are subject to the recall, the electric vehicle maker’s safety recall report said.
- And then: Tesla on Saturday slashed the price of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver assistant software to $8,000 from $12,000 in the United States, as CEO Elon Musk reaffirms his commitment to self-driving technology.
- Musk is betting the technology will become a major source of revenue for the world's most valuable automaker. But he has for years failed to achieve the goal of self-driving capability, with the technology under growing regulatory and legal scrutiny.
----- Could be a short squeeze setting up for earnings (Tonight) - READ MORE>>>>>

Tesla Earnings
- Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs, gross margin down 199 bps yr/yr, reiterates that in 2024, vehicle volume may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023
- Total GAAP gross margin of 17.4%, down 199 bps yr/yr.
- Operating expenses up 37% yr/yr to $2.53 bln.
- Total Deliveries down 9% to 386,810.
- Outlook: Co states, "Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and we believe the next one will be initiated by advances in autonomy and introduction of new products, including those built on our next generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business."

Salesforce M&A
- One week ago, the Wall Street Journal first reported that CRM was exploring a purchase of INFA and that news did not go over well with either shareholder base.
- In fact, not including Monday'ss moves, CRM and INFA are lower by 8% and 9%, respectively, since that initial story broke on April 15
- Deal Dead

PCE Index Report (Friday)
- The PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy, also known as the core PCE price index, is released as part of the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report. The core index makes it easier to see the underlying inflation trend by excluding two categories – food and energy – where prices tend to swing up and down more dramatically and more often than other prices. The core PCE price index is closely watched by the Federal Reserve as it conducts monetary policy.
- Looking for somewhere between 0.3 and 0.4 MoM and there is hope that this stays under 3% YoY -

| Change From Month One Year Ago | | --- | | February 2024 | +2.8% | | January 2024 | +2.9% | | December 2023 | +2.9% | | November 2023 | +3.2% |

China Playing Hardball
- Apple has removed popular messaging apps like WhatsApp, Telegram and Signal from its iPhone app store in China after the Chinese government ordered the company to do so, The Wall Street Journal reported last Friday.
- Citing a person familiar, the Journal reported that the Cyberspace Administration of China asked Apple to remove Meta-owned WhatsApp and Threads from the App Store "because both contain political content that includes problematic mentions of the Chinese president," but the Apple spokesperson denied that was part of the reasoning.
- This is probably in direct response to the potential for a TikTok ban with the latest legislation making its way through congress.

House Bills
- Lots of money approved over the weekend in the HOUSE for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
- Also, the bill is paving the way to a possible TikTok ban in the U.S. passed the House of Representatives on Saturday, as part of a legislative package addressing critical national security concerns with China, Russia and Iran.
- It passed overwhelmingly in a 360 to 58 vote.
- Another high-profile component of the measure is the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act, which would allow the U.S. government to liquidate seized Russian assets and then give those funds to Ukraine.

Here we Go....
- Latest commentary: The Federal Reserve is stuck in a mode of forecasting and public communication that looks increasingly limited, especially as the economy keeps delivering surprises.
- The issue is not the forecasts themselves, though they’ve frequently been wrong. Rather, it’s that the focus on a central projection — such as three interest-rate cuts in 2024 — in an economy still undergoing post-pandemic tremors fails to communicate much about the plausible range of outcomes. The outlook for rates presented just last month now appears outdated amid a fresh wave of inflation.

Chapter 11?
- Red Lobster, which has 58 stores in Florida, is considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy to recoup $11 million in losses from its endless shrimp promotion, Bloomberg reported.
- Red Lobster’s “Ultimate Endless Shrimp” promotion last year was intended as a limited-time offer but brought in enough new customers that the chain added it to its permanent menu in June. Customers gobbled it up, and the chain reported fourth-quarter 2023 losses of $12.5 million, the outlet reported.

Nike
- Error in their ways - some admission here
-Nike CEO John Donahoe acknowledged Friday that the company moved too far away from wholesale partners like Macy's and DSW in its quest to become a retailer that primarily sells merchandise to shoppers through its own stores and website.
- "We recognize that in our movement toward digital, we had over rotated away from wholesale a little more than we intended,"
- We've corrected that. We're investing heavily with our retail partners. They were all here over the last couple of days; they're very excited about the innovation pipeline."
- So WHAT DOES THIS REALLY MEAN?

DJT- Tricky
- Trump Media on Friday warned the CEO of the Nasdaq Stock Market of 'potential market manipulation' of the company's stock by "naked" short selling of shares.
- Company is trying every trick in the book
- They are evenr doing outreach to shareholders to teach then how to minimize short selling by not allowing shares to be loaned out - like the old days
- SEC Reply: On its website notes that a failure to deliver shares as part of a short sale trade, which can land a company on the Reg SHO threshold list, does not necessarily reflect improper trading activity such as naked short selling.
- "There are many justifiable reasons why broker-dealers do not or cannot deliver securities on the settlement date," the SEC notes in a section about Regulation SHO.
- Devon Nunes - President is fighting the shorts - and he will probably lose if the company continues on this trajectory

Michael Saylor
- Evangelist for Bitcoin - on TV tellign everyone that his company - Microstrategy is a leveraged Bitcoin Play and the best way to hold bitcoin
- Meanwhile: Saylor entered into a stock-sale plan with his company last summer that allowed him to unload up to 400,000 shares in the first four months of 2024.
--- With the plan more than 90% of the way to completion, Saylor has netted about $370 million from this year's stock sales
- Those assets, equal to about 1% of the total number of bitcoins minted to date, are now worth about $13.6 billion, accounting for the bulk of MicroStrategy's $21.3 billion market cap.

AH Jumped to Conclusion - NVDA
- Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank is looking to develop a "world-class" Japanese-language-specific generative artificial intelligence model, and plans to invest $960 million in the next two years to bolster its computing facilities, according to a Nikkei report.
- So, AH wondered, why is Softbank talking this up and saying that they are planing top purchase chips from NVDA (from anonymous sources)
- Looked and was proven wrong - as of last update Softbank does not own a significant stake in NVDA IN FACT: SoftBank sold its entire 4.9% stake in Nvidia for $3.3B in January 2019

NEW HOME SALES!
- New home sales increased 8.8% month-over-month in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 670,000) from a downwardly revised 637,000 (from 662,000) in February.
- On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 8.3%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales were up in every region, helped in part by another dip in the median sales price, although average prices were up with a pickup in sales of higher-priced homes, particularly in the West region.
- The median sales price decreased 1.9% yr/yr to $430,700 while the average sales price increased 1.0% to $524,800. March marked the seventh consecutive month of a year-over-year decline in the median selling price.
----- New home sales month-over-month/year-over-year by region: Northeast (+27.8%; -13.2%); Midwest (+5.3%; -23.4%); South (+7.7%; -4.5%); and West (+8.6%; +18.8%).
-----At the current sales pace, the supply of new homes for sale stood at 8.3 months, versus 8.8 months in February and 8.1 months in March 2023.
----- The percentage of new homes sold for $399,999 or less accounted for 43% of new homes sold versus 48% in February and 44% one year ago. Homes priced between $400,000 and $749,000 accounted for 43% of new homes sold versus 40% in February. New homes priced at $750,000 or over accounted for 14% of sales in March versus 12% in February.

THIS
- Poor environment for M&A
- The U.S. Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued to block Coach parent Tapestry's $8.5 billion deal to buy Michael Kors owner Capri, saying it would eliminate "direct head-to-head competition" between the flagship brands of the two luxury handbag makers.
- "The proposed merger threatens to deprive millions of American consumers of the benefits of Tapestry and Capri's head-to-head competition, which includes competition on price, discounts and promotions, innovation, design, marketing and advertising," the FTC said.

Sticker Shock

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EPISODE 700

In the world of pods, there's a grand show
Hosted by John and Andrew, all know
Episode 70 is their feat,
With tales both wild and sweet,
An epic journey with words that just flow!

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Risk – happens fast!

Costco Selling ALOT of Gold

April 15th – Tax payment withdrawals

Rates spike, oil moves lower

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Warm Up
- Risk Happens FAST
- Costco Selling ALOT of Gold
- April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals
- Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college

Market Update- Banks reporting - mixed results
- Rates UP!
- Earnings Season
- Risk off - Missiles Flying
--- WAR escalations concerning investors

Rates
- Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast
- Came on on the Iran retaliation worries
- Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets

Rates in Europe
- European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks.
- "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said.
--- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil

HA! If you don't like the numbers...
- The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.
- The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking.
- It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing.

Inflation Spots

Sticker Shock

And then at 1:30PM Tuesday
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong.
- Markets were not pleased -
---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments?
---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty

Safe-haven?
- Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones
- How is that digital gold or store of value?
- Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot.
- Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday

Earnings This Week
- Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close
- Proctor and Gamble on Friday
- Problem is that they come right as risk elevated.

Goldman Sachs Earnings
- Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue.
- The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities
- Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday.

JPM Earnings
- The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis.
- But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast.
- That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion to $3 billion for the year.
- Shares of JPMorgan fell more than 6%.

BAC Earnings
- Bank of America on Tuesday reported first-quarter earnings that topped analysts’ estimates for profit and revenue on better-than-expected interest income and investment banking.
- The bank said profit fell 18% to $6.67 billion, or 76 cents a share; excluding a $700 million FDIC assessment, profit was 83 cents a share.
- Revenue slipped 1.6% to $25.98 billion as net interest income declined from a year earlier. (that should turn a bot as rates increasing)

China - AMD and Intel
- Shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Intel dipped on Friday after The Wall Street Journal reported that China is ordering the country's largest telecommunications carriers to cease use of foreign chips.
- Chinese officials issued the directive earlier this year for the telecom systems to replace non-Chinese core processors by 2027
- Both stocks traded down as much as 4% on Friday morning.
- Why? China accounted for 27% of Intel's revenue in 2023, making it the company's biggest market. AMD generated 15% of sales from China, including Hong Kong, last year.

Salesforce Acquiring
- Salesforce Inc., the top maker of customer relations software, is in advanced talks to acquire Informatica Inc., the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the discussions.
- $11 BILLION
- Informatica Inc. is an enterprise cloud data management company. The Company provides artificial intelligence (AI)-powered Intelligent Data Management Cloud (IDMC) platform, which connects, manages and unifies data across any multi-cloud, hybrid system, empowering enterprises to advance their data strategies. The Company’s platform enables enterprises to create a single source of truth for their data, allowing them to create compelling 360-degree customer experiences.

Follow Up
- Chickens and Hot Dogs!
- Now Gold
- Wells Fargo expect revenue "may now be running at" $100 million to $200 million a month, a rapid acceleration since bullion hit the warehouse club late in the summer of 2023.
- Costco is selling one-ounce bars made of nearly pure 24-karat gold. While the price is not disclosed online to nonmembers, it's estimated that the product generally sells for about 2% above the spot price
- There are a few catches: Sales are limited to five per customer (up from two previously)
- Not really profitable - 2% markup, but you get back the 2% for executive members
- BUT adds 3% to general merchandise sales but not much profit.
--- Just looked and not available again - sells out quickly

CHINA
- Fitch cut its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative on Wednesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faces increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models.
- The outlook downgrade follows a similar move by Moody's in December and comes as Beijing ratchets up efforts to spur a feeble post-COVID recovery in the world's second-largest economy with fiscal and monetary support.

Japan
- Japanese workers' real wages fell in February for a 23rd consecutive month, data showed on Monday, suggesting higher prices kept up pressure on consumers' spending appetite.
- How is this possible with little to no inflation????
- Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of consumer purchasing power, fell 1.3% in February from a year earlier, down for 23 straight months, data from the labor ministry showed. It followed a revised decline of 1.1% in January.

Disney
- Nelson Pelz looses Disney bid - Lost but won
- 5th largest investor - owns more than $3.5BILLION in Disney Stock
- The outcome has been positive, he added, noting that Disney's stock is up roughly 50% since October, when his firm began to re-engage with Disney, and is the best performer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average this year.

Chick-fil-A
- Chick-fil-A announced it is allowing certain antibiotics in its chicken, overturning a commitment it made in 2014.
- The company said in a recent statement posted on its website that the change will take effect in spring 2024, and is intended "to maintain supply of the high-quality chicken you expect from us."
- The statement, which was also sent as a notification to the chain's app users, said the antibiotics that will be allowed are not important to human health, and are only administered "if the animal and those around it were to become sick."

Trend?
- For the second year in a row, the number of students earning a bachelor's or associate degree declined, according to a recent report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
- Overall, undergraduate degree earners fell nearly 3% in the 2022-23 academic year — the steepest decline ever recorded, the report found, while bachelor's degree earners sank to the lowest level in nearly a decade after notching a one-year loss of almost 100,000 graduates.
- Meanwhile, the number of students earning a certificate hit a 10-year high, largely due to the growth in vocational programs.

Tesla
- Bad news keeps on coming
- Jobs cuts
- Lowering prices on cars
- bad numbers in China
- More Cybertruck issues
- Many now saying they are OUT of the Mag7

Oh Canada!
- Canada will raise capital gains taxes on businesses and wealthy individuals to help pay for tens of billions in new spending aimed at making housing more affordable and improving the lives of young people.
- Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the government will tax Canadian companies on two-thirds of their capital gains, up from half currently. That change will also apply to individual taxpayers when they have gains over C$250,000 ($181,000) in a year, though people will still be able to sell the homes they live in tax-free.

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A WINNER – CTP for Rumble

A new CTP to announce!

Club 72 Thank You

Solar Eclipse

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- A WINNER - CTP for Rumble
- A new CTP to announce!
- Club 72
- Solar Eclipse

Market Update- Boeing issues continue
- Oil market on fire
- Yellen - talking tariffs again
- Kashkari and others on cuts
- Earnings season starts this week

Lucky CLUB 72Jonathan Farris
Mark Studebaker
William Palmer
Susan Erickson
Terrence Cleary
Anonymous (2)

Fed Walking All Back
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that at the U.S. central bank's meeting last month he penciled in two interest rate cuts this year but if inflation continues to stall, none may be required by year end.
- "If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all," Kashkari said during an interview with Pensions & Investments. "There's a lot of momentum in the economy right now."

Walking Forward
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that it's possible interest rates may have to move higher to control inflation, rather than the cuts her fellow officials have indicated are likely and that the market is expecting.
- "While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse,"

Who is the best?-If you were wondering about the track record of the Fed Chair's performance over time, it's worth delving into the historical data.
- Overall, the track record of Fed Chairs over time reflects the challenges and complexities of managing monetary policy in a dynamic and ever-changing economic environment. Each Chair has faced unique circumstances and challenges during their tenure, and their actions have had far-reaching implications for financial markets and the economy as a whole.

Whispers
- Hearing that the car business - used and new having one of the worst years on record (from selective car salespeople)
- Same as above on lower end boat business (sales)
- U.S. small-business confidence slipped to the lowest level in more than 11 years in March amid rising concerns about inflation, according to a survey on Tuesday.
- The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.9 point to 88.5 last month, the lowest level since December 2012. It was the 27th straight month the index was below the 50-year average of 98.
- - Twenty-five percent of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, reflecting higher input and labor costs, up 2 points from February. The share of businesses raising average selling prices rose 7 points from the prior month.

Inflation Data and ECO
- CPI and PPI this week
- CPI expectations are 0.4% MoM for March
--- Many are sahing that this is a clean month without odd seasonal factors - so something to watch
- - 10 Yr at 4.378%
----------- FOMC minutes at 2:00 Wednesday
-- Last week - Employment situation continues to be strong - 3.8% Unemployment rate 300k added to payrolls (Wage growth was okay)

Earnings Season - Banks in Focus
- Banks are expected to see some decline in earnings over the period
- Focus on net interest margin as well as credit deterioration (and days outstanding)
- However, YoY - earnings growth for some look pretty good
- - - - Property & Casualty Insurance (87%), Reinsurance (62%), Life & Health Insurance (12%), and Multi-line Insurance (12%).

REMOTE WORK on the sea
- Virgin Voyages is targeting a new type of traveler: remote workers.
- In March, the Miami-based cruise line owned by Sir Richard Branson introduced a month-long cruise called the “Scarlet Summer Season Pass.” It’s essentially four week-long cruises packaged together to appeal to remote workers who want to spend a month at sea in southern Europe.
- Starlink WiFI included
-Europe and other locations
- $9,900 for 2 people!

DNUT Follow up
- Krispy Cream stock - we flagged something weird after big jump last week with McDonalds news (2026+ completion???)
- Stock moved up and now got shot down....

3PM Monday - Solar Eclipse
- Starting at 1Pm warnings that volume could dry up from 3PM - 4PM as eclipse is more interesting than trading stocks
- Volume did dry up a bit as most were out with their pinhole glasses

Back to this...
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said she would not rule out any measures, including potential tariffs, on China's green energy exports.
- Yellen not too happy as China providing industry incentives to local companies
- WHY? Didn't we just pass a multi-billion dollar chips act?
- Don't we have tax incentives and other government handouts to companies?

Boeing
- A Southwest Airlines flight had to make an emergency stop after an engine part fell off during takeoff from Denver International Airport on Sunday morning.
- The airline said that they lost "approximately $160 million" in their first quarter.
- Boeing pays Alaska Airlines $160 million in cash in 'initial payment' following mid-air blowout

Spirit Airlines
- Spirit Airlines said on Monday it has reached a deal with Airbus to delay all aircraft deliveries scheduled from the second quarter of 2025 through 2026 and intends to furlough about 260 pilots, as the U.S. carrier looks to save cash.
- The agreement with Airbus would improve Spirit's liquidity by about $340 million over the next two years, the carrier said, adding that there were no changes to its orders scheduled to be delivered during 2027-2029.

Oil Mexico
- Mexico's state energy company, Pemex, is planning to cut at least 330,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude exports in May, leaving customers in the United States, Europe and Asia with a third less supply, two sources said.
- As they require more domestically - Pemex has no option other than applying monthly cuts to exports after its crude production in February fell to the lowest level in 45 years and the country's refineries, including a new facility in the port of Dos Bocas, began taking in more crude oil.

Powerball
- A ticket sold in Oregon has won Powerball jackpot of more than $1.3 billion, the eighth largest in U.S. history.
- Powerball drew the numbers early on Sunday and the winning numbers were white balls 22, 27, 44, 52, 69 and red Powerball 9. The drawing is the 41st since the last Powerball winner hit the jackpot on New Year's Day.
- The winner matched the correct six double-digit numbers on a $2 ticket. The chances of that happening are one in 292.2 million

EV Trends
- Hybrids are the thing
- Ford Motor is delaying production of a new all-electric three row vehicle, as it shifts to offer hybrid options across its entire North American lineup, the company said last Thursday.

Amazon - Just Walk Out: Cancelled
- Removing from its Fresh stores
- However, unbeknownst to many, the Just Walk Out technology was relying on more than 1000 workers in India who were watching the footage to ensure the checkouts were accurate. The Information alleges that over 70% of sales relied on these human video reviewers.
- WAIT - what?

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All of a sudden – mood swing

The bloom is off the Rate-Cut-Rose

Leaking Data – Another breach

More AI – lots of $$ committed to this…

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Warm Up
- All of a sudden - mood swing
- Bloom is off the Rate Cut Rose
- Leaking Data - Another breach
- More AI - lots of $$ committed to this...

Market Update- Oil prices moving through key resistance
- Apple back to Oct 2023 support -watch out below?
- Gold/Silver Soaring - into higher rates and higher USD???
- Oil on the rise

CTP for Rumble Update
- Marcus G - In the top spot right now....
- - Thatch House dude

HCD: Donations - Need a new Shirt Prize and Design - Plus Contracted Devs prices inflation.

Analyzing Apple's Chart- Key levels of support
- Down-trend

Apple Chart

Powell on Good Friday
- PCE report (on day the markets are closed for Good Friday)
-- Showed 2.8% YoY and 0.3% MoM
- Powell tried to talk down market expectations for rate cuts like several other recent speakers
- - Market still hoping for MAYBE 3 - but it looks like June is off the table.

Stronger Economy than Thought
- ISM comes in above 50 for the first time in nearly 18 months
- Economic strength + good employment + Inflation = Rate CUT?????
- Market is finally getting the hint
--- 10-Yr rate spiked to 4.38% today

ISM Chart

Global Economic Trends
- China finally saw its manufacturing number gain some traction last month
--- China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday.
- South Korea - Sticky inflation (Consumer prices advanced 3.1% in March from a year earlier)

USA Strong

Commodities on the rise
- Cocoa futures for May delivery were up 3.9% at $10,030 per metric ton, marking the first time the commodity breaks above the $10,000 mark. Cocoa has been on a tear this year, soaring nearly 39%.
- Ivory Coast, the biggest coca producer in the world, is facing hotter-than-normal temperatures — which have led to dryer-than-usual conditions and crop yields.

TSLA
- Q1 deliveries declined by 8.5% yr/yr to 433,000, representing TSLA's first yr/yr decline since the pandemic-impacted year of 2020. Importantly, that decrease is partly due to extraordinary events that were out of TSLA's control.
-- Berlin fire factory shutdown, Red Sea passage issues etch.
- Competition in China is really heating up and cost of EVs from many Chinese manufacturers are much lower.

M&A - Amazon
- Amazon.com Inc. says it’s investing an additional $2.75 billion into Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup.
- The infusion brings Amazon’s total investment in the company, a well-regarded builder of so-called generative AI tools able to generate text and analysis, to $4 billion, following an earlier investment announced in September.
- As part of that deal, Amazon had the right to contribute the additional funds in the form of a convertible note, provided it did so before the end of March.

AI NEWS
- Microsoft and OpenAI are in discussions regarding Stargate, a new AI super-computer data center project to be headquartered in the U.S. may cost over $115 billion and is planned for launch in 2028.
- $$$$$$115 BILLION
- That is like 115,000 $1,000,000 homes....
- Stargate’s power requirements, estimated to be several gigawatts (5) may require Microsoft and OpenAI to explore alternative power sources, like nuclear power. Enough to power 3,750,000 for a year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
----- Hoover Dam X2

Meanwhile
- Microsoft will sell its chat and video app Teams separately from its Office product globally, the U.S. tech giant said on Monday, six months after it unbundled the two products in Europe in a bid to avert a possible EU antitrust fine.
- The European Commission has been investigating Microsoft's tying of Office and Teams since a 2020 complaint by Salesforce-owned competing workspace messaging app Slack.

AT&T Leak/Breach
- Over the weekend - snuck it in there...
- AT&T has revealed that it has suffered a massive data breach, including the personal data of a combined 73 million current and former customers.
- The data appeared on the dark web approximately two weeks ago, AT&T says, adding that it appears to be “from 2019 or earlier.” It is “not yet known whether the data in those fields originated from AT&T or one of its vendors,” the company adds.
--- ??? So, since it is from 2019 or ealier it does not matter?
- How about this: The good news is that it “does not contain personal financial information or call history.” The bad news is that it does include customer names, home addresses, phone numbers, dates of birth, Social Security numbers and encrypted passcodes.
- The 7.6 million current customers impacted have had their passcodes reset, the company said, though obviously there’s less it can do for data lifted and used for identity theft.

POWERBALL?
- The Powerball jackpot has ballooned to a tremendous $1.09 billion after yet another lottery drawing yielded no top winner Monday night.
- Monday’s winning numbers were: 19, 24, 40, 42, 56 and Powerball 23.
- The next drawing will be held Wednesday night. If a player finally snags the jackpot, they could choose the annuitized option, with an initial payment and the remainder spread over 29 years, or the lump-sum option of $527.3 million, both before taxes.
- The jackpot is the fourth-largest in Powerball’s history and could soon close in on the $1.13 billion Mega Millions prize won by a ticket in New Jersey last week.

DJT Stock
- Shares of Donald Trump's social media company plunged 21% on Monday, wiping out the gains from its debut last week, after disclosing millions in losses and saying it would struggle to meet its financial liabilities going forward.
- Trump Media & Technology Group lost more than $58 million in 2023, it said in a filing, sending shares reeling less than a week after the Truth Social parent went public through a high-profile blank-check merger.
- Trump owns 78.75 million shares, which could result in a big windfall for the former president, depending on their value. At the stock's peak last week, his stake would have been more than $6 billion, but after the selloff it would be valued at about $3.8 billion.
- Why not do this with all political fundraising - $ for masses

London and Bridges
- Insurance claims for damage to the bridge alone could reach $1.2 billion, the bank said in a note, predicting further potential liabilities of $350 million to $700 million for wrongful deaths and yet-to-be-determined amounts for business interruptions while access to the city’s port is blocked.
- Lloyds seemed to have been a big insurer and on the hook for a chunk
- Insurance costs going up again due to these crazy or big natural disasters
- Closure of one of the US' biggest ports while the bridge is repaired could also cost millions of dollars, Barclays' analysts said.
-------- The Port of Baltimore is the 14th largest in the US. In 2023, 52.3 million tonnes of foreign cargo, worth $80.8bn, passed through Baltimore, according to data from the state of Maryland.

Healthy!
- McDonald's is planning to sell Krispy Kreme doughnuts at its restaurants nationwide by the end of 2026, the chains announced Tuesday.
- The rollout will start in the second half of this year, but it will take roughly two and a half years as Krispy Kreme more than doubles its distribution to satisfy the partnership. For the duration of the agreement, McDonald's will be the exclusive fast-food partner for Krispy Kreme in the U.S.
- Why announce something that is going to take until 2026?
- A cardiologist's dream

Boeing
- Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun will step down at the end of 2024 in part of a broad management shakeup for the embattled aerospace giant.
- Chairman of the board Larry Kellner is also resigning and will leave the board at Boeing's annual meeting in May. He has been replaced as chair by Steve Mollenkopf, who has been a Boeing director since 2020.
- And Stan Deal, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, is leaving the company effective immediately.

FedUp
- United Parcel Service said on Monday it will become the United States Postal Service's (USPS) primary air cargo provider, as rival FedEx announced an end to its more than 20-year partnership with the postal service provider.
- USPS was the largest customer for FedEx's air-based Express segment, even as payments declined after the postal service shifted letters and packages from planes to more economical trucks as part of an operational revamp.

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Fed in Focus – FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday.

Reddit IPO Frenzy!

Inflation – definitely not going away.

Announcing – A New Closest to The Pin

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- A New CTP Announced
- No Show Next week - business meetings out of town
- A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections
- An important change to stock trade settlements is coming

Market Update- Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday
- Reddit IPO Frenzy
- Inflation - definitely not going away
- AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss
- Yield Frenzy

PPI Release
- After a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter
- 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY
- The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February.
- Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.
- Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
- Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday.

PPI MoM

Company Stats - Recession?
- According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter.
-- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61.
- This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021

Companies Citing Recession

% of Companies

Reddit
- IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21)
- 5X Oversubscribed
- Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site.
- Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares.
- Valuation > $6 billion
- Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO - However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years.
---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022.
----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million.

Yields - 10 YR
- Highest level of 2024
- technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test

Yields

Japan Yields
- The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported.
- The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations
- RAISING TO ZERO!

Global Rates - Who Will CUT First?

First Mover?

ELON
- Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000
--- Stock moves up by 6%
- Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go
--- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

Elon - Ketamine
- A video, which was posted Monday on X, Musk said the drug helps him manage a "negative chemical state" similar to depression. He argued that investors should not worry about his drug use so long as his companies continue to perform.
"From the standpoint of Wall Street, what matters is execution," said Musk, who helms three corporations including the electric vehicle maker, the rocket company SpaceX and the social media company X. Musk stated that Tesla was worth as much as the rest of the car industry combined.
"For investors, if there's something I'm taking, I should keep taking it," he added.

Fake Meat Update
- Beyond Meat files $250 mln mixed shelf securities offering

6% No More
- The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is set to pay up $418 million in damages and eliminate commission rules in a landmark deal experts say will significantly shake up the real estate industry.
- The NAR agreed to settle after a series of lawsuits accused the organization of conspiring to artificially inflate home sale commissions.
- However, recent lawsuits argued the NAR stifled competition among real estate brokers and violated antitrust laws by requiring the seller’s agent to make an offer of payment to the buyer’s agent and implementing rules that led to steep standard commission fees.
- This settlement means the NAR can no longer set any rules that would allow a seller’s agent to set compensation for a buyer’s agent. The association’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS) — which buyers and sellers use to view for-sale properties — will no longer feature any fields offering broker compensation either.
- Zillow and Compass smoked on the ruling
- How does this work? How do buyers find agents that have no idea what they will be paid?

Insider Selling
- Peter Thiel sold some of his $3.4 billion stake in Palantir Technologies Inc. for the first time in more than two years as shares of the software and analysis company soar on artificial intelligence optimism.
- Thiel sold more than 7 million shares worth roughly $175 million Tuesday, according to a filing. He still owns about 7% of the Denver-based company, the largest asset in his $10.5 billion fortune,

AI Chip Frenzy
- NVIDIA today announced its next-generation AI supercomputer — the NVIDIA DGX SuperPOD™ powered by NVIDIA GB200 Grace Blackwell Superchips — for processing trillion-parameter models with constant uptime for superscale generative AI training and inference workloads.
- 25X less money and less energy cost to operate
- The Blackwell GPU architecture features six transformative technologies for accelerated computing, which will help unlock breakthroughs in data processing, engineering simulation, electronic design automation, computer-aided drug design, quantum computing and generative AI

AI and Energy
- Concern is rising about the energy use of AI chips etc
- More than 7,000 people are headed to Houston this week to attend CERAWeek by S&P Global with a key question in mind: How to meet increasing demand for power amid the transition to clean energy.
---- Some are very concered about the consumption with the high energy
- Yergin, who wrote the Pulitzer Prize-winning book The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, will be the voice of the conference and lead more than two dozen panels featuring heavyweights from government, the oil and gas sectors and tech.

Doctors - AI
- Doctors can now spend more time with patients.
- This technology allows doctors to consensually record their visits with patients.
- The conversations are automatically transformed into clinical notes and summaries using artificial intelligence.
- Companies like Microsoft's Nuance Communications, Abridge and Suki have developed solutions with these capabilities, which they argue will help reduce doctors' administrative workloads and prioritize meaningful connections with patients.
- Doctors will get better case notes - well organized that will help them when they review and then provide appropriate treatment etc.
--- Doctors will be able to listen to patients and be present with discussions in exam rooms.

OMG - 32 Hour Workweek? HORRIFYING
- Sen. Bernie Sanders and Senate Democrats cited advances in artificial intelligence and automation Thursday as they argued for a new bill that would mandate a 32-hour federal workweek.
- Employers would have to pay overtime compensation to non-exempt employees of 1.5 times the hourly rate for every hour worked past eight hours in a single day, and two times the hourly rate for every hour worked past 12 hours.
- The bill also would guarantee that total weekly wages would not be cut as a result of the reduction in total hours worked.
- The bills come months after business leaders such as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates predicted that people could within decades work as little as three days a week due to innovations in AI, and automation.
- Sanders and Democrats at Thursday's hearing said that reducing the workweek would allow people to spend more time with family and on hobbies.

SouthWest
- Southwest Airlines said Tuesday that it will have to trim its capacity plans and reevaluate its financial forecasts for the year because of aircraft delivery delays from Boeing, its sole supplier of airplanes.
- The Dallas-based airline said Boeing informed Southwest's leaders that it should expect 46 Boeing 737 Max 8 planes this year, down from 58. Southwest had expected Boeing to deliver 79 Max planes, including some of the smallest model, the Max 7, which hasn't yet won certification from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Oprah - Weight Loss Special
- Did anyone watch this?
--- Oprah - Weight Watchers step down and divest/donate of all shares (Down ~ 80% since she joined board)

T+1
- Starting May 28, 2024, the trade settlement period for U.S. and Canadian securities traded on U.S. exchanges will be shortened to one day after the trade date (T+1). Currently, the settlement period is two days after the trade date (T+2).

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Volatility is back and Bitcoin mania is here again.

Need a new CTP Stock!

China stocks on a run…

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Volatility is back
- Bitcoin mania
- Need a new CTP Stock!
- LSD - making an interesting comeback

Market Update- NVDA had 2 down days!
- Markets still want to go higher - not matter what the data
- Yields move up with CPI
- Big rebound for NVDA - not letting it go down too much...

CPI Release
- Total CPI increased by 0.4% month-over-month, meeting expectations, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) also rose by 0.4% month-over-month (0.3%).
- On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, compared to 3.1% in January, and core CPI increased by 3.8%, versus 3.9% in January.
- Excluding shelter, CPI rose by a more modest 1.8% year-over-year.
- Despite the headline disappointment for core CPI, the market seems optimistic about the future, anticipating a reduction in the isolated impact of the shelter index in the coming months due to an expected moderation in rent prices. (in other words, thinking the Fed's PCE will not be so hot next time and the Fed will still cut sometime this year)

CPI Report key takeaways:
- The food index showed no change month-over-month and increased by 2.2% year-over-year.
- The energy index rose by 2.3% month-over-month and declined by 1.9% year-over-year.
- Used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% increase month-over-month and a 1.8% decrease year-over-year.
- The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and unchanged year-over-year.
- The all items index, excluding food, shelter, and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.

Inflation - YoY

Inflation - ACTUAL

Layoffs - Does not fit the narrative
- Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since the global financial crisis, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
- The total of 84,638 planned cuts showed an increase of 3% from January and 9% from the same month a year ago, with technology and finance companies at the forefront.
- From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end.
- Here is where it gets interesting: The layoff numbers, however, are not feeding through to weekly jobless claims, suggesting that unemployment is short-lived and workers are able to find new positions.

Powell
- On one hand he stated that the Fed is watching and not ready yet to cut rates - data dependent
- A couple days later he indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate.
- In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn't provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon.

Mnuchin to the Rescue?
-NYCB had bad month - and got worse
- Lost 7% of deposits
- Bond rating cut
- Investment firm lead by Steve Mnuchin swooped in with a cool $1 billion rescue package
- Remember NYCD bought Signature Bank - obviously so much crap in that portfolio it helped poison NYCB

Oracle Earnings
- New ATH
- Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $1.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.38; revenues rose 7.1% year/year to $13.28 bln vs the $13.29 bln FactSet Consensus.

Q3 Total Remaining Performance Obligations up 29% to $80 billion.
Q3 Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS) $5.1 billion, up 25% in USD, up 24% in constant currency.
Q3 Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) Revenue $1.8 billion, up 49% in both USD and constant currency.
Q3 Cloud Application (SaaS) Revenue $3.3 billion, up 14% in both USD and constant currency
Q3 Fusion Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.8 billion, up 18% in both USD and constant currency.
Q3 NetSuite Cloud ERP (SaaS) Revenue $0.8 billion, up 21% in USD, up 20% in constant currency.

China
- China stocks moving up nicely
--- Breaking out from rounded bottom
---- Now people talking about the value proposition

More China
- Chinese smartphone company Xiaomi announced Tuesday it would formally launch its long-awaited electric car on March 28.
- The company claimed in a social media post its SU7 electric car "would be delivered as soon as it is launched," according to CNBC's translation of the post written in Chinese.
- Complete with Tesla and Porche
- 668 km (415 mi) (CLTC) 800 km (497 mi) (CLTC, SU7 Max)

Pretty Car

Interior

Even More China
- China is testing an AI assistant for neurosurgeons at seven hospitals in Beijing and other cities in coming months, one of many initiatives the government is backing to try and harness the technology.
- The Hong Kong-based Center for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics employed about 100 graphics processor units to train its healthcare-focused model, split evenly between Nvidia Corp.’s A100 high-end chips and Huawei Technologies Co.’s Ascend 910B, researchers told reporters Monday.
- -ABBY NORMAL???

Over to Japan
- Somehow - revisions to last week's numbers came out and now Japan is no longer in a recession
- Japan's gross domestic product expanded 0.4% in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. Provisional data last month had showed GDP contracting 0.4%. This is after a revised 3.3% slump in the July-September period.
- Japan yields came up - Yen Rallied - Market sold off (worst in months)

Meanwhile - Apple Cancelling Car
- Apple will wind down its team working on electric cars, called Special Projects Group, according to Bloomberg.
- The news signals that Apple will cease its secretive effort to build a car to rival Tesla. The program employed thousands of employees, but never fit with Apple's core business of electronics and online services, and raised questions about what companies Apple would tap to manufacture a car.

Crypto
- 3 Pillars???
--- Store of Value, Currency, Speculative Investment
- - Was once this culture changing investment for the people, by the people, of the people
-- Now even the hardcore maximalists are just talking about it as an investment.
--- Making shit up as they go...

Happy Birthday - 25 Years
- QQQ is officially 25 years old and what a run it has had

QQQ Chart

Hmmmmm
- Boeing whistleblower
- A whistleblower who was at war with Boeing died last week -- and investigators say it appears he took his own life, this while he was embroiled in a lawsuit against the company.
- John Barnett was discovered dead on Saturday out in Charleston, NC -- where cops say his body was found in his truck in a hotel parking lot ... with him suffering an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. No word on if foul play is suspected -- but police are investigating.
- His lawyer is insisting that "Alleged" comes in front of suicide.

Weight Watchers
- Stock has been on a wild ride since Oprah got involved.
-Now, she is leaving the board
- Company got way away from roots and started to focus on diet drugs (GLP-1 etc)
- Stock down 90% since 2001

Spending Season
- With Presidential race underway - spending and tax cuts are on the top of the list
- Biden presenting $7 trillion budget and spending plan
-- Biden
- Trump back to lower taxes and other ways to prop up economy
- No matter, big spending ad bigger debt is on the horizon

The Year of Drugs - Could be interesting times ahead
- A clinical trial’s encouraging results won US Food and Drug Administration breakthrough therapy status for an LSD formulation to treat generalized anxiety disorder, Mind Medicine Inc. announced Thursday. The biopharmaceutical company is developing the drug.
- “A breakthrough designation is a recognition that a drug has demonstrated evidence of clinical efficacy in meeting an unmet medical need with morbidity and mortality associated with it,” said Dr. Daniel Karlin, assistant professor of psychiatry at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston and chief medical officer for MindMed.

And in closing
- In Japan - Male office workers at a telecoms firm in Tokyo have experienced simulated menstrual pain to help them become more sympathetic toward female colleagues ahead of International Women's Day on Friday.
- workers winced at a company event on Thursday as a "perionoid" device sent electric signals via pads placed below the navel to stimulate the lower stomach muscle and induce a cramping sensation.
- EXEO said it wants to create an environment where its more than 90% male workforce can be more supportive of female peers, including when it comes to taking menstrual leave.
-

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All sorts of good stuff in this episode.

Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!

DHUnplugged is streaming live – with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access.

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TECH on fire – Bulls overjoyed!
Hedge Funds – Making some moves – Surprising
Year of Pharma?
To The Moon – Crypto Style
Valuations getting frothy?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Warm Up
- Pays to Follow Pelosi!
- Landing on the Moon - then falling over
- Japan - something not kosher
- New See-through laptop screens

Market Update- TECH on fire - Bulls overjoyed!
- Hedge Funds - Making some moves - Surprising
- Year of Pharma?
- To The Moon - Crypto Style
- Valuations getting frothy

Froth-a-Bubble- Icous?
- There is some concern at Apollo regarding a bubble in S&P 500
- The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s, see chart below.
- Different makeup back in 1999 - but still of interest asa the S&P500 reaches levels (P/E) at the high end of the ranges.
- SEE LINK

Smart Money?
- Hedge funds piled into tech stocks in the weeks before Nvidia Corp. earnings. Now, they’re cashing out and selling at the fastest pace in seven months.
- Professional managers offloaded their positions for four straight sessions last week, including Thursday, the day after Nvidia posted results, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime-brokerage unit. The intensity of the selling ranks in the 98th
- he data suggests traders are booking profits on their tech wagers after a six-week buying streak and putting that extra cash into less volatile stocks, such as consumer staples.
- SEE LINK

Nancy!
- NEWS MONDAY: PANW - Palo Alto Networks shares higher by 9% after Rep. Nancy Pelosi reported Friday afternoon the purchase of 70 call options (purchases made 2/12 and 2/21)
- Stock moved down 27% after earnings last week
- In fairness, the purchases on 2/12 are very underwater
- AH picked this for the game right after post-earnings slump

Earnings - Zoom
- Zoom shares rose as much as 13% in extended trading on Monday after the video chat software vendor announced fiscal fourth-quarter results that topped analysts' expectations.
- Here's how the company did, compared with consensus among analysts polled by LSEG:
- -- - Earnings per share: $1.22, adjusted vs. $1.15 expected
- - - -Revenue: $1.15 billion vs. $1.13 billion expected

Disney
-Walt Disneyshareholder Blackwells Capital is calling for it to come up with an artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, saying that this could lift the U.S. media and entertainment conglomerate's stock price by as much as 129%.
Blackwells is one of two activist investors pushing for board seats

What Goes Up...
- Intuitive Machines Inc. shares sink Monday, after the spacecraft company said its lander, which successfully touched down on the moon last week, likely landed on its side.
- The landing was touted as the first by a private-sector company to reach the moon intact, as well as the first US spacecraft to reach the moon’s surface since 1972.
- In a Monday update, the company wrote that “flight controllers intend to collect data until the lander’s solar panels are no longer exposed to light,” and that “based on Earth and Moon positioning, we believe flight controllers will continue to communicate with Odysseus until Tuesday morning.”
- Stock down 33% on this news

Japan
- Markets at new highs
- Yen weak weak weak
- Government keeps ultra-loose monetary policy
- Recession official
- Something is not right over there

More Japan
- Federal prosecutors in New York on Wednesday said they had charged a Japanese Yakuza leader with conspiring to traffic nuclear materials from Burma to other countries.
- Prosecutors said the accused gangster Takeshi Ebisawa "and his confederates showed samples of nuclear materials in Thailand" to an undercover agent from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.
- "A U.S. nuclear forensic laboratory later analyzed the samples and confirmed that the samples contain uranium and weapons-grade plutonium," the statement said.

Lenovo See-Through
- Chinese tech giant Lenovo showed off a prototype laptop on Monday that has a see-through screen, underscoring how the world's largest PC maker is trying to innovate after a brutal couple of years for the market.
- Seems like it can be used for VR / AR - Put something behind it (architect designing house can put house behind ?)
- Any thoughts?

Out of Favor - Pharma?
- Pharmaceutical companies last year launched new U.S. drugs at prices 35% higher than in 2022, reflecting in part the industry's embrace of expensive therapies for rare diseases like muscular dystrophy, a Reuters analysis found.
- The median annual list price for a new drug was $300,000 in 2023, according to the Reuters analysis of 47 medicines, up from $222,000 a year earlier. In 2021, the median annual price was $180,000, for the 30 drugs first marketed through mid-July, according to a study published in JAMA.
- Will Pharma be a sector to invest in - especially if AI will help shave costs for industry?? (XLV, XBI, IBB)

Crypto Fever
- Bitcoin hit a two-year high on Tuesday, on track for its biggest two-day rally this year, on signs large players were buying the cryptocurrency, while smaller rival ether topped $3,200 for the first time since 2022.
- Bitcoin has rallied more than 10% in two sessions, helped by Monday's disclosure from crypto investor and software firm MicroStrategy that it had recently purchased about 3,000 bitcoins for an outlay of $155 million.
11 Granolas
- FANG + Mag7 Euope Style
- The momentum of this group — which comprises GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L'Oreal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP and Sanofi — has drawn comparisons to the "Magnificent Seven" U.S. tech giants and evoked similar concerns about concentration risks in European equity markets.
- Together, the GRANOLAS account for around a quarter of the total Stoxx 600 market cap, and Goldman analysts in a note last week highlighted that they exhibit qualities that are expected to thrive in the current cycle, such as solid earnings growth, high and stable margins and strong balance sheets.

US Government Shutdown?
- Funding is due to run out on March 1 for some federal agencies, including the Department of Transportation, while others like the Defense Department face a March 8 deadline.
- Special meeting today - "Good Outcome" - (not definitive deal)
- No One Cares Anymore... About any of this...

Beyond Stupid - Look for these words
- Beyond Meat reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs in-line
- Beyond Meats - Reports Q4 (Dec) GAAP loss of ($2.40) per share, may not be comparable to the FactSet Consensus of ($0.89); revenues fell 7.8% year/year to $73.68 mln vs the $66.66 mln FactSet Consensus.
- Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $125.1 million, or -169.9% of net revenues, compared to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $56.5 million, or -70.7% of net revenues, in the year-ago period.
- Co issues in-line guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $315-345 mln vs. $344.43 mln FactSet Consensus.
- Co added, "Our 2024 plan includes taking steps to steeply reduce operating expense and cash use; pricing actions and the right-sizing of our production footprint, both in support of margin expansion; a years-in-the-making core platform renovation in Beyond IV that delivers superior health benefits and taste; and, following the announcement and initiation of our Global Operations Review, taking certain non-cash charges pertaining to inventory and assets that are no longer consistent with our path to profitability."
- Stock up 80% after hours

RICH
- ATT outage last week - cell service down for hours
- some people getting $5 for inconvenience

Reddit IPO
- Never turned a profit since inception
- Social media company Reddit filed its IPO prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday after a yearslong run-up. The company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “RDDT.”
- $10 billion valuation
- Google on Thursday announced an expanded partnership with Reddit that will give the search giant access to the company’s data to, among other uses, train its AI models.

AI
- Google to pause Gemini AI model's image generation of people due to inaccuracies
- Google started offering image generation through its Gemini AI models earlier this month, but over the past few days some users on social media had flagged that the model returns historical images which are sometimes inaccurate.
- Founding fathers were Asian and other...

If AI not bad enough...
- A patient implanted with Neuralink's brain technology can now control a computer mouse just by thinking, the company's founder Elon Musk said.
- "(The) patient seems to have made a full recovery with no ill effects that we are aware of and is able to control the mouse, move the mouse around the screen just by thinking," Musk said in a Spaces session on X.
-

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Japan makes surprise crypto move.

AI dating coaches are coming
– Markets plunge – then rebound nicely
– AI Buying AI stuff
– Cure for Frostbite?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- AI dating coaches are coming
- Markets plunge - then rebound nicely
- AI Buying AI stuff
- Cure for Frostbite?
- AMAZING AMAZON

Market Update- Japan - really pumping the risk assets
- China government making $$ moves
- China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat
- Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway?

Follow Up----
- USA CPI came out HOT!
- January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%.
- The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it.
- The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts.

Market Hysteria
- The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%.
- The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report.
- In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January.
-The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com)

Japan Crypto News- Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change.
- His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country’s industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments.

China
- China’s southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales.
- Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect.

More China
- China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud.
- China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up
- Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much

China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat
- "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy.
---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's
- Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.3% in June 2023 amid an economy still struggling to return to pre-pandemic growth levels,

Meanwhile
- As markets hit or move closet to all-time-highs
-The UK and Japan both fell into recession at the end of last year, marked by two consecutive quarters of contracting activity.
--- Now Germany is #3 biggest economy (Moves ahed of Japan)
- While the euro area is expected to avoid a downturn, the European Commission still sees the bloc growing slower than initially forecast this year. And in Australia, the unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in two years, consistent with expectations for its
- US still has a pretty economic story it is telling

With that...
- Goldman Sachs lifting their year end target for the S&P 500 to 5,200 (5% upside)
- Previously projected 5,100 in January
- Before that projected 4,700 in December
----- SO, they have no idea what is going on, no ability to project out more than a month or so, just keeping tight to current levels
------ THEREFORE, why would anyone believe these predictions?

New SEC Rules
- US regulators will begin requiring hedge funds to confidentially share more information about their investment strategies.
- New rules approved on Thursday will require firms to provide more details to watchdogs, including on investments, borrowing and counter-party exposure. The Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission described the new regulations, which were proposed in 2022, as a way to better keep

Shall We? AI News
- AI dating services are already making their way into the hand of millions of single people
- OpenAI and other apps helping people write/craft their conversations with - so I asked ChatGPT:

Input: Write a text message to someone named John to let them know that I am really interested in getting to know them more and maybe a casual date.

Example: Hey John! ? I've enjoyed our chats and would love to get to know you better. How about grabbing coffee or doing something casual together? Let me know! ?

More AI Dating
- YourMove.AI, an AI dating tool that offers a range of services such as drafting messages, analyzing conversations and evaluating users' dating app profiles
- Rizz, an AI dating assistant
- Amori uses AI to analyze a user's entire WhatsApp or iMessage chat history with any person in their contacts list, Weitzman said. The chatbot, which is built atop OpenAI's models, uses the chat logs to rank the relationship in areas like compatibility, communication, "sexiness" and more, even going so far as to guess each person's attachment style.
- The problem with these AI messages or conversations is: What happens when you actually meet?

Airlines - Late Friday Announcement
- Carl Ichan - won seats on Jetblue Board of directors
- 88 years old and still kicking it!
- TWO directors
- Icahn Enterprises bought 10% of company
- Icahn said in disclosing his JetBlue stake that he believes the shares are undervalued.
- Stock up 5% A/H Friday

SMART JEFF!
- Bezos selling lots of stock lately
- Now that he moved to Florida - no state tax on the sales
- In 2022 Washington state imposed a new, 7% capital gains tax on sales of stocks or bonds of more than $250,000.
- In 2022, when the tax took effect, Bezos stopped selling. He didn't sell any Amazon shares in 2022 or 2023, gifting only $200 million of shares at the end of last year.
- On the $2 billion sale last week, he saved $140 million that he would have paid to Washington state. On the entire sale of 50 million shares over the next year, he will save at least $610 million. (Reuters)

More Amazon
- Amazon will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P Dow Jones Indices, which manages the 30-stock index, said on Tuesday. Amazon shares moved up 1% in extended trading.
- The move will result in more exposure for investors who bet on the index, which is far smaller than the S&P 500.
- The change goes into effect prior to market open on Feb. 26.
- "Reflecting the evolving nature of the American economy, this change will increase consumer retail exposure as well as other business areas in the DJIA," S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement.

ELON
- Attended premier of Disney's LOLA with Nelson Peltz
- Pelz is trying to get on board (activist)
- Musk makes flippant remark about potentially wanting to buy Disney

Putin on US Politics
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview broadcast on Wednesday that he preferred Joe Biden to Donald Trump but was willing to work with any U.S. president.
- Putin was asked by interviewer Pavel Zarubin who was "better for us" out of Biden, a Democrat, and Trump, a Republican.
- Putin replied without hesitation: "Biden. He is a more experienced, predictable person, a politician of the old school."

Lyft Earnings - OOOPS
- Stock finally make a move after an upbeat call - BUT
- Press release showed that margin expansion was expected to be 500 basis points (5%) in 2024.
----- Stock skyrocketed on the news 60%
- BUT - on the call, Lyft CFO Erin Brewer said the figure was incorrect and that the the actual increase will be 50 basis points
- Stock did move up during the day by 30% as earnings were better and outlook was better.
- Stock is still down 70% below its IPO Price.

AI Buying Stuff - Investing
- Nvidia Corp., the chipmaker at the heart of an artificial intelligence spending boom, disclosed investments in Arm Holdings Plc, SoundHound AI Inc. and the biotech company Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc.
p- All companies went nuts after the news broke
- Generally all related to AI something
- However, Recursion Pharmaceuticals seems to be small investment part of a payment or investment from commentary.

Frostbite Cure?
- The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved Eicos Sciences' injection, making it the first-ever treatment to treat severe frostbite in adults.
- The treatment, which will help reduce the risk of amputation, will be sold under the brand name Aurlumyn and is expected to be available in Spring 2024, although its pricing has not yet been determined, the company said in an e-mailed statement.
- Iloprost, the active ingredient in Aurlumyn, opens blood vessels and prevents clotting. It was originally approved in 2004 for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.

OIL
- Oil restocking is seen as keeping prices stable to up for the near term
- Traders say they have so far seen strong buying from China, Europe and the United States.
- The Chinese are buying heavily oil arriving this spring to replenish stocks while the United States is gradually topping up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve after selling a record amount from the government oil stores in 2022.

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SUPERBOWL Mania.
Bitcoin Fever is back
HUGE week for economic reports
Altman looking for $
Winner for SAVE CTP announced

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up
- SUPERBOWL Mania
- Bitcoin Fever is back
- HUGE week for economic reports
- Altman looking for $
- Winner for SAVE CTP

Market Update- 3-Day Rule (Buy after plunge) - Made up Nonsense
- Get out your 5,000 Hats!
- Disney Earnings - Good Stuff
- ARM Blowout
- CPI Report Meltdown

S&P 500 Breaks 5,000!
- All time high
- The S&P 500 continues to hit fresh milestones with a first-ever break above the 5,000 level, its valuation is reaching new heights as well.
- PE - forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- this week rose to 20.4 times, a level last reached in February 2022, according to LSEG Datastream.
- That puts it far above the index’s historic average of 15.7.
- Expectations are for 9.7% earnings growth for 2024
- "The good news is that valuations, while stretched ... are nowhere near the 28x peak at the Y2K Bubble Top," Emanuel said. ????

Follow Up----
- CPI came out HOT!
- YoY 3.1% for CPU and 3.9% for Core
- The food index was up 0.4% month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year.
- The energy index was down 0.9% month-over-month and down 4.6% year-over-year.
- The used cars and trucks index decreased 3.4% month-over-month and was down 3.5% year-over-year.
- The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 6.0% year-over-year.
- The all items index less shelter was up 1.5% year-over-year.
----- Markets hit after reports - gained a bit back toward end of the session - but overbought and hot CPI don't mix
--- Small Caps down 4%, NAZ down 2% S&P down 1.4%

What Does it Mean?
- Fed funds futures push any cut until June
- 4 cuts are expectations for 2024 (down 7 at the start of the year)

Economics this week

Economics

NVDA
- Up, Up, UP
- Goldman Target = $800
- NVIDIA surpassed Amazon (AMZN) in market value for a brief period on Monday

More NVDA
- Company is building a new business unit focused on designing bespoke chips for cloud computing firms and others, including advanced artificial intelligence (AI) processors, nine sources familiar with its plans told Reuters.
- The dominant global designer and supplier of AI chips aims to capture a portion of an exploding market for custom AI chips and shield itself from the growing number of companies pursuing alternatives to its products.

Altman (ChatGPT)
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is seeking trillions of dollars in investments to overhaul the global semiconductor industry
- Altman has long talked of the supply and demand problem with AI chips
- He's considering a project that would increase global chip-building capacity,
- Altman could need to raise between $5 trillion and $7 trillion for the endeavor
- Reportedly in talks with different investors, including the government of the United Arab Emirates.

Waymo Cars Attacked
- On Saturday night, a crowd surrounded a white sport utility vehicle that was moving along a street in the city's Chinatown district (San Fran)
- A person jumped onto the hood of the Waymo vehicle and broke its windshield. Another person also jumped on the hood 30 seconds later as some in the crowd clapped in approval
- Fireworks thrown in car and set on fire.
- On previous occasions in San Francisco and Phoenix, Arizona, groups have disrupted the operations of self-driving vehicles, blocking their path, trying to enter the vehicles and jumping on their hoods

Amazon
- Bezos unloading shares
- $2 billion last week
- Plans to sell 50 million shares over the next year or so

Israel
- Downgraded by Moody's
-- That took a while
- Israel received its first-ever sovereign downgrade as Moody’s Investors Service lowered its credit rating, citing the impact of the ongoing military conflict with Hamas on its finances.
- Moody's cited material political and fiscal risks from the war, adding "Israel's budget deficit will be significantly larger than expected before the conflict."
- Israel stock market up 40% from WAR lows - now near levels from Jan 2023

Disney
- Magical Earnings
- Walt Disney Co. shares rose as much as 10.5%, the biggest intraday gain since Dec. 2020, after reporting better-than-expected earnings for its fiscal first quarter.
- The entertainment giant issued an upbeat profit outlook for the year, giving Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger ammunition to deflect proxy challenges at its shareholder meeting this spring.
- Shorts- were smoked - still wondering if this is sustainable

Cathie Wood - Lost How Much?
- The much-hyped investment firm Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has reportedly seen a massive erosion of wealth over the past ten years, amounting to a staggering $14.3 billion.
- According to a recent Morningstar analysis, the wealth destruction at Ark Invest, a company that gained widespread attention for its high-risk tech investments, has been attributed to the 2022 bear market.
- Despite the significant losses, Ark Invest still manages over $13 billion in assets across its ETFs, indicating that some investors continue to believe in Wood’s investment strategy.

China
- DEFLATION
- China's consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years in January
- The annual CPI decline in January was the biggest since September 2009, mainly led by a sharp drop in food prices
- Analysts warn the overall deflationary impulse in the economy risks becoming entrenched in consumer behaviour.

CHINA INFLATION

Inflation Expectations - US (Survey)
- NY Fed says one-year expected inflation unchanged at 3%
- Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at the one- and five-year ahead horizons in January, at 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively.
- Median inflation expectations at the three-year ahead horizon declined to 2.4% from 2.6%.
- Median year-ahead expected price changes declined for all goods tracked in the survey, falling by 0.3 percentage point for gas to 4.2%, by 0.1 percentage point for food to 4.9%, by 0.9 percentage point for rent to 6.4%, by 0.5 percentage point for medical care to 8.6%, and by 0.4 percentage point for the cost of a college education to 5.9%.

ARM Holdings Stock
- Massive earnings blowout - AI chip development helped the company
- Stock up HUGE
- Softbank big owner of this one - made up for all of the WeWork losses
- Shares were at $70 pre earnings, then went to $94 and traded north of $160 on Monday
- 120% in 5 days

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Big Week - AND HOW!Big Caps BIG - Small Caps SmallAAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%.Shakeup at Morgan StanleyBanking Sector Fears (NYCB)The latest Closest to The Pin.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Big Week - AND HOW!- Big Caps BIG - Small Caps Small (Regional Bank woes)--- AAPL declined 3.4% on the week while AMZN jumped 8.0% and META gained 20.5%.- Shakeup at Morgan Stanley- Banking Sector Fears (NYCB)- AI induced euphoria - is that a thing? Market intoxicated on it.Market Update- Powell was Hawkish - Markets Didn't Care (past Wednesday)- HUGE Employment Surprise - Market Didn't Care (after 10 minutes)- META/Facebook Earning - Yes Markets cared - all day Friday- Undercurrent of something happening (Region Bank breakdown - NYCB)- China comes out strong with market supportive measures - market rallies 5%Employment Report- Much hotter than anticipated- Treasury Yields and the USD spiked- Unemployment rate at 3.7% (expected to tick up to 3.8%- Briefing.com: This report is not likely to persuade the FOMC to cut rates as soon, or as much, as the market had hoped. As a result, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday), according to the CME FedWatch Tool.- markets were a bit flushed on the initial report but tossed it aside and preferred to focus on META earningsRate Cut Odd for MARCH- As a result of the Fed meeting and employment report, the fed funds futures market repriced the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the March FOMC meeting to 20.5% (from 38.0% yesterday and 47.6% one week ago) while the probability of a 25-basis points rate cut at the May FOMC meeting has been reduced to 74% (from 93.8% yesterday),SO REACHING- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Friday that while the January job report was impressive on the surface, underlying details were not as strong.- “The headline number was almost breathtaking,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the “PBS NewsHour” program.- “If you peel back the onion a little bit, it’s not as strong as that headline number advertises … but it’s still very strong,” he said.- In particular, he noted that hours worked fell 0.2% last month despite the jump in net new jobs.Amazon - Blowout- Earnings per share: $1.00 vs. 80 cents expected by LSEG- Revenue: $170 billion vs. $166.2 billion expected- Amazon Web Services: $24.2 billion vs. $24.2 billion, according to StreetAccount- Advertising: $14.7 billion vs. $14.2 billion, according to StreetAccount- Amazon said first-quarter sales will be between $138 billion and $143.5 billion, representing growth of 8% to 13%. Analysts were expecting revenue of $142.1 billion, according to analysts.META - BLOW-OOOUUUUTTTT- Meta Platforms beats by $0.51, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus;- FY24 total expense guidance unchanged at $94-$99 bln,- CapEx guidance of $30-$37 bln, up $2.0 bln at high end;- They stopped spending on META.- Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, also announces $50 bln increase to share repurchase program.- Stock up 21%Apple Earnings- headline: Apple beats by $0.08, beats on revs; iPhones and services beat; China revenue declines 13.1% - Magic words: CEO Tim Cook thinks there is a huge opportunity to for Apple on AI, but he does not want to get ahead of things.- Apple reports Q1 iPhone revenue of $69.

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HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter.China continues to try to save marketsPush Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday.PCE - FED FAV - The Latest.Announcing a new Closest to The Pin.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Jury Duty?- Big Week for ECO - Jobs Report Friday- Penmanship - making a comeback?- Is this a Capitulation Moment - China?-- War Brewing - Dragging US into Mid-East Conflict?Market Update- HUGE Earnings - Most impactful week of quarter- China continues to try to save markets- Push Back? Powell Meets Markets Wednesday- PCE - FED FAV - The LatestPODCAST DEAL- Sirius XM Holdings Inc. has acquired certain exclusive rights to SmartLess, the hit podcast hosted by actors Will Arnett, Jason Bateman and Sean Hayes, as part of a larger deal between the satellite radio company and SmartLess Media.- The three-year accord is worth more than $100 million, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified.SUPER- Bowl- Tickets to attend the Super Bowl in Las Vegas — a rematch between the 2020 contenders — are the most expensive ever for the event, going for an average $9,815 each so far, according to reseller TickPick.- The price is 70% more than last year’s game, which was held in Arizona. The previous record of $7,046 was set in 2021 in Tampa, Florida, when the game was played at sharply reduced capacityRate Hike Probabilities- First move for markets from Oct '23 was the HOPE and LOVE of Fed Rate Cuts to come - As soon as March- (The we got the AI 'rager' that helped support Bull markets)- - NOW, Rate CUT hopes fading - markets ignoring facts--- Rate Cut Chart Odds - Fading Rate Cut OddsReporting this week:- Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft--- Huge components for NAZ100 and S&P500Microsoft- Microsoft was expected to report a 15.8% jump in quarterly revenue, its best growth in nearly two years, as rising adoption of its products infused with generative AI fuels demand for its cloud services.-- ACTUAL:---- Microsoft's Q2 revenue was $62.02 billion, a 16% increase, surpassing the estimate of $61.14 billion.----- Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.93, beating the consensus by $0.16.-- Stock even A/HGoogle/Alphabet- GOOGL company achieved a YoY revenue increase of 13.5%, reaching $86.31 billion, surpassing expectations.- Google Advertising reported $65.52 billion in revenue, showing an 11.0% YoY growth but falling short of expecations.-- Stock Down 4% AHMore Earnings - TSLA- Horrible!- Earnings per share: 71 cents, adjusted vs. 74 cents expected.- Revenue: $25.17 billion vs. $25.6 billion expected.- Operating margin for the quarter came in at 8.2%, down from the year-ago quarter's figure of 16%- Tesla said in its investor presentation that vehicle volume growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than last year's growth rate as the company works toward launching its "next-generation vehicle" in Texas.- Stock down 14% on the news---- Stock market cap still down 40% since purchase of Twitter in 2022AMD -- Met expectations but guided DOWN- So much for the big rise based on NOTHING!- Stocks DOWN 10%Tech Layoffs- Silicon Valley’s tech companies are slashing headcount at a rapid pace.- Since the start of January, some 23,670 workers have been laid off from 85 tech companies, according to the website Layoffs.fyi.- Some are laying off staff in parts of the business to invest more heavily in developing AI products.China- The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that investors will no longer be able to lend out shares for trading purpo...

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Those margins - not a pretty look.Trouble in Airlines Space while the love for Apple remains.More Stimulus but hidden in the details.Announcing a new Closest to The Pin.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Trouble in Airlines Space- Apple Love Remains- More Stimulus - Hidden in the Details- BULL TAKE OFF - No Stopping Us Now - Right? (Overconfidence?)Market Update- Bitcoin - Sub $40k on Monday - Why?- Chatter IPO on the way (again)- New Highs for markets - Pulled by a few stocks- And on The Margin - A Margin Crunch- Rates moving up - VIX moving downDONATIONS - HEY it is 2024!NEW HIGHS - A New Bull Market has just been declared. Out of the BEAR as we eclipse the previous high set in 2022.Airlines- JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines on Friday said they are appealing a federal judge's ruling issued earlier this week that blocks the two carriers' planned merger on antitrust grounds.- JetBlue had planned to buy Spirit for $3.8 billion in a deal struck in the summer of 2022. A federal judge on Tuesday, however, barred that combination, saying it would eliminate the budget carrier and mean higher prices for cost-conscious consumers.- Spirit drop 62% last week - trying to recover a bit- BUT, if Sprint fails - doesn't that mean that the elimination of a budget carrier could mean higher prices for cost conscious consumers?---- They will appeal, give concessions and win.---- Spirit up 90% since low last weekBitcoin Sinking- Bitcoin sub $40,000 on Monday as the sell-off continues- Blaming it on selling of the GrayScale and beig bought in NEW Sppot ETFs- Thought question: If Selling Apple in Fidelity and Buying in Schwab - does that impact share price?Banks Suing The Fed?- Big banks have hired one of the country’s top trial lawyers and are preparing to sue the Federal Reserve — a nearly unthinkable challenge — if sweeping new industry regulations aren’t watered down.- Eugene Scalia, the son of the former Supreme Court justice and a well-known conservative litigator, is quietly drawing up a lawsuit seeking to block the proposed rules on behalf of the Bank Policy Institute, a trade group that represents JPMorgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, and others, people familiar with the matter said.- It would be the first time in recent memory that the industry has sued the Fed, and a departure from standard halls-of-power persuasion efforts that try to avoid antagonizing its chief regulator.More Airlines- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recommended that airlines operating Boeing 737-900ER jets inspect door plugs to ensure that they are properly secured after some operators reported unspecified issues with bolts upon inspections.- Regulators have stepped up scrutiny on Boeing after a Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout on an eight-week-old Alaska Airlines MAX 9 jet that left a gaping hole in the aircraft. Boeing has sought to contain the damage, appointing an independent advisor to examine quality control in its manufacturing processes while numerous planes remain grounded.- In its new "Safety Alert for Operators," the FAA said that some airlines had conducted additional inspections on the 737-900ER mid-exit door plugs and had noted "findings with bolts during the maintenance inspections."Apple -- Apple (AAPL.O), opens new tab ended Samsung Electronics' 12-year run as the largest seller of smartphones in the world, after commanding a 20% market share in 2023, according to a report from International Data Corp.- Samsung ended the year with a 19.4% share, followed by China's Xiaomi, Oppo and Transsion,

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BIG News - Apple loses to....- World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps AGAIN - let them eat stimulus!- Best of CES? - EVs getting some shade thrown - Bitcoin ETF approvedPLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- BIG News - Apple Loses to....- World Economic Forum Davos Happening - Picking on Rich Peeps again- Best of CES?- EVs getting some shade thrown- Bitcoin ETF approvedMarket Update- Natural Gas price on the move - huge jump- 3 downgrades for Apple last week- Bank earnings - mixed, but could say disappoint- Another Stop-gap bill to AVERT a government shutdownCan You Believe this?- Microsoft ended Friday's U.S. trading session as the most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing Apple after briefly topping the iPhone maker during intraday trading on Thursday.- Shares of Microsoft climbed more than 3% for the week, bringing the company's market cap to $2.89 trillion, while Apple's stock dropped by over 3%, lowering its valuation to $2.87 trillion.More Apple- Apple said on Thursday that former Vice President Al Gore will retire from the company's board next month after serving as a director since 2003.- Other: 3 Downgrades last week! (Stock still up 2.5% for the week although down 3.5% for the year 2024More Wealth News- Just in time for Davos - pick on the rich - LET THEM EAT STIMULUS!- The world's five richest men have more than doubled their vast wealth since 2020, according to an Oxfam report, as the charity calls for curbs on "corporate power."- The report found that the combined fortune of the world's wealthiest people — Tesla CEO Elon Musk, LVMH boss Bernard Arnault and family, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Oracle founder Larry Ellison, and veteran investor Warren Buffett — has jumped from $405 billion in March 2020 to $869 billion in November 2023.- Seven of the world's ten biggest companies have a billionaire as their CEO or main shareholder, the report found. Meanwhile, the world's richest 1% of people own 43% of global financial assets, according to the research, such as publicly listed instruments like stocks and bonds, along with stakes in privately-held businesses.- "If current trends continue, the world will have its first trillionaire within a decade but poverty won't be eradicated for another 229 years," Oxfam said.Even MORE Davos- The global economy faces a year of subdued growth prospects and uncertainty stemming from geopolitical strife, tight financing conditions and the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence, a survey of top economists released on Monday found.- Conducted each year ahead of the World Economic Forum's (WEF) annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos, the survey of 60-plus chief economists drawn globally from the private and public sectors attempts to sketch priorities for policymakers and business leaders. (meaningless)- Some 56% of those surveyed expect overall global economic conditions to weaken this year, with a high degree of regional divergence. While majorities saw moderate or stronger growth in China and the United States, there was broad consensus that Europe would muster only weak or very weak growth.- The outlook for South Asia and East Asia and Pacific was more positive, with very high majorities expecting at least moderate growth in 2024.- 70% see financial conditions loosening (rate cuts and stimulus) as inflation slowsSpeaking of Rate Cuts (NOT)- The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024, the institution's Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said Monday.

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Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024!SECURE Act Benefits for 529 PlansChina - turn around in gaming rule discussionBoeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts?PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- And we are back - Happy New year - Welcome to 2024- Announcing the Winner of the CTP Cup 2024!- SECURE Act Benefits for 529 Plans- China - turn around in gaming rule discussion- Boeing Under Pressure - Loose Nuts?Market Update- Worst start to the year since ... 2015 (Whatever that means)- Market continues to have little muscle memory (Still down for the YTD)- CES getting those AI juices flowing again- BITCOIN ETF - News OUT! WELL- HACKED - Changed - WOW!!!** Start of year 2024 - Looking for you to write dome reviews on Spotify , Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts - Wherever - spread the word people!Start with this!!!!!!!-Bitcoin on the move- 13 companies filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF- Rumors that some decision will be made early this week- Bitcoin tops $47,000 on the news- May be sell the news moment..---- 4:15PM TODAY - UPDATE: Today the SEC grants approval for #Bitcoin ETFs for listing on all registered national securities exchanges. The approved Bitcoin ETFs will be subject to ongoing surveillance and compliance measures to ensure continued investor protection. (SEC Titter)--- 4:27PM Bitcoin down - explained as sell the news BUT- Gary Gensler private account: @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.---- SO, was this a not approved or a not approved YET????Podcasts Rule - Killing the Competition (or??)- Radio giant Audacy has filed for bankruptcy protection amid a slump in advertising revenue.- The Philadelphia-based company, which oversees major podcast and radio operations and has acquired CBS Radio, said it has filed a Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas after a restructuring agreement with a majority of its debtholders.- The agreement will see the company cut roughly 80% of its nearly $2 billion in debt.No Ceiling- The U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time, the U.S. Treasury Department reported last week.- Each party is blaming the other- Biden plans to reduce U.S. deficits by $2.5 trillion over 10 years by increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans and cutting spending on pharmaceuticals and tax breaks for oil companies.- Trump wants the tax cuts to be permanent.Bad Start- Traders hoping that a pan-markets year-end rally would pick up where it left off got the opposite on 2024’s first trading day, a session that featured one of the worst-ever concerted drops in stocks and bonds to start a year.|- The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ticker SPY) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) each fell 0.6% Tuesday, the first time they’ve both slumped so much to start the year since the bond gauge began trading in 2002.--- First week was not plesant for most areas of the market - Looks like people were holding on to avoid paying taxes in 2023 (April 2024)----- Then dumpedStarbucks- Starbucks app: Coffee giant accused of rigging payments to the tune of nearly $900 million over 5 years- This is the probelm with gift cards and these plans - so much is forgotten about- “Starbucks rigs its payment platform so consumers are encouraged to leave unspent money on their cards and apps,” said Chris Carter, campaign manager for the group in a statement.

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All sorts of good stuff in this episode. From M&A to the quick banking crisis of 2023.Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together! DHUnplugged is streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar for access.Love the Show?Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterFollow Ryan on Twitter

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Apple watch ban - stock unaffected.A surprise with housing prices.A grab-bag bull phrase being dusted off.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Slow volume - boring market (you know what they say)- China is testing some market moving ideas- New Year Coming - markets Closed Monday- Another GRAB-BAG Phase - Dusted off....Market Update- The real Santa Claus rally - the final days- House prices - what?- Boosting Buybacks - One Company- China wrecks markets - for a dayHome Price Index- October S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.9% vs 5.0% consensus- Prior reading was +3.9%Grab-Bag - Bull Phrase- Cash on The Sidelines- The stock market is set to see a significant boost next year, thanks to a record $6 trillion and a growing cash pile in money market funds - according to FundStrat-- (UBERBULL Shop)- - Fundstat's logic: If the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates next year, this would hold more true as the risk-free interest rate on money market funds will also fall. This would make holding cash in money market funds less appealing as compared to putting it in the stock market.China - Gamming- Latest:-- China approved 105 domestic games on Monday, the latest indication that Beijing is softening its stance after its move to tighten industry restrictions led to a $80 billion rout last week.--- The titles included those operated by Tencent Holdings Ltd. and NetEase Inc., China’s two leading game publishers that have been pummeled by Beijing’s new rules. Monday’s approvals show the Chinese authorities support the development of online gaming, an industry association said in a post on WeChat republished by the official Xinhua news agency.- What happened a few days earlier- - On Friday, Chinese officials announced new draft rules aimed at limiting how much gamers could spend and restricting rewards that encourage them to spend more time online.- The announcement was a surprise and ended up spooking investors and sending markets into a tailspin.- Games giant Tencent saw its share price drop as much as 16% while the stock of its rival NetEase tumbled a record 28%. Shares of the social-media service Bilibili, which is popular with gamers, tanked 14%.Consumer Sentiment!- December Consumer Confidence 110.7 vs. 104.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 101.0 from 102.0- Look at this chart and look at a chart of equity markets - pretty much identical. Wealth Effect is real and will play a significant role in how inflation/disinflation/deflation plays out.Spending Report- Mastercard Spending Pulse reports sales increased 3.1% YoY during the holiday season (Nov 1 trhu Dec 24); NRF predicted spending would increase 3-4% in 2023- Restaurants (+7.8%), Grocery (+2.1%), and Apparel (+2.4%) had the best performance.- Jewelry (-2.0%) and Electronics (-0.4%) were laggards.China Car Announcement- Nio launched the ET9 EV- The company also confirmed the launch of a low-priced brand called Alps.- Nio will focus on the European market in 2024.- High end is supposedly in competion with the Porche Panarama and the Maybach- The ET9 executive sedan, positioned in the same class as Mercedes Benz’s Maybach and Porsche’s Panamera series, is expected to start delivery in the first quarter of 2025 at an estimated price of 800,000 yuan (S$152,355),Apple Stops Selling Watch- Stock barley budges- Apple on Tuesday appealed a decision to ban imports of its watches based on a complaint from medical monitoring technology company Masimo, after President Joe Biden's administration declined to veto a government tribunal.

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The train is leaving the station - get on or get run over.Inflation is turning and now there is what?Fed rally - just in time for Christmas.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024- More layoffs- End pf year - bullish sentiment and candy cane dreams- AMAZING - NOW Deflation is starting to bubble up- Fed-Ex Earnings...Market Update- Data matters - but only bull case- Yields - next stop? What is it saying about the future economy?- Adobe M&A stopage- Homebuilders - hitting new highs- Hacking - another hit- Supply Chain Redux?Fed Rally - Then Chill- This is getting out of hand...- Just days after a Federal Reserve meeting that penciled in an ample course of interest rate cuts next year, which in turn unleashed a broad rally in financial markets, one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers pushed back on the ebullience on Friday.- "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with CNBC. (WHAT????)- When it comes to the question of lowering rates, "I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that" as the central bank continues to mull whether monetary policy is in the right place to help guide inflation back to its 2% target, he said.DEFLATION concept entering the market- Deflation is happening on the "goods" side of the U.S. economy, or the tangible objects that Americans buy, economists said.- For one, a strong U.S. dollar makes imported goods cheaper. Some of those savings get passed on to consumers, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.----- A strong dollar is a likely contributor to deflation in certain categories like household furniture and appliances, Zandi said. Additionally, weaker demand may be a factor: Households that spent liberally on home goods in the early days of Covid-19 lockdowns are likely no longer doing so, he added.--- Broadly, the pandemic snarled global supply chains, causing shortages that fueled big spikes in prices. Energy costs surged when Russia invaded Ukraine, pushing up transportation and other distribution costs.------ Now, supply-chain disruptions are largely in the rearview mirror, economists said. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, for example, has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels from historic highs at the end of 2021.- Some prices, like those for airline tickets and eggs, are also falling back to earth after hitting record-high levels. The latter, for example, soared largely due to a historically deadly bout of avian flu among egg-laying hens. Egg and airline ticket prices are down about 22% and 12% in the past year, according to CPI data.Year Over Year November - Not Seasonally Adjusted- Does not include rents/housing. ( A big part of the the CPI index) Deflation - Food/Energy Deflation - All Items (X)Red Sea- War is hell - now ships diverted- Have to go around Cape Horn adding massive time for deliveries- Will this cause any price hikes?- Oil Prices?FedEx Earnings- FedEx shares tumbled 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the package-delivery giant lowered its revenue forecast as weaker demand hit sales.- The company said it expects a low-single-digit decline in revenue for the fiscal year, down from a previous forecast for flat sales year-over-year - less that analysts predicted.- It's the second consecutive quarter FedEx has lowered its sales outlook.- Meanwhile - Apple lowered its numbers for several quarters and the stock still rallies (Buybacks)Layoffs Auto- General Motors plans to lay off about 1,300 workers in Michigan starting early next year due to ve...

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Up Up Up - Santa will be pleased.Diverging outcomes.Interesting M&A activity and a blast from the past.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- AND it is LIVE - CTP Cup for 2024- Deals - opened and closed - M&A- Two outcomes - same datapaoints - Diverging Outcomes- Caught Red handed - Guess the Bank (again)- Gamestop's new strategyMarket Update- Bitcoin Update - Boom and Busting - Just as everyone getting back in- Big News for CRISPR - Big price too!- Gas prices -LOW- OIL - keeps going lower- VIX - 5-year LOWHistory: Jan. 5, 2022: The Dow hit its all-time high of 36,952.65.Today's Close: 36,577.94SHAMELESS PLUGS - H&C/JCDVIX- Sub 13 print -- Lowest since 2018!- No Fear - no hedgingDataPoints- Soft landing - not much different than a vibrant economy- How do yo have a vibrant economy when Fed trying to slow down?- Data supports hard and soft landing- Diverging outcomes - which is it?Caught AGAIN- Wells Fargo was snared in an industrywide probe into mortgage bankers' use of loan discounts last year, CNBC has learned.|- The discounts, known as pricing exceptions, are used by mortgage personnel to help secure deals in competitive markets. At Wells Fargo, for instance, bankers could request pricing exceptions that typically lowered a customer's APR by between 25 to 75 basis points.- The practice, used for decades across the home loan industry, has triggered regulators' interest in recent years over possible violations of U.S. fair lending laws. Black and female borrowers got fewer pricing exceptions than other customers, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has found.More Competition- AMD!- Meta, OpenAI, and Microsoft said at an AMD investor event last week they will use AMD's newest AI chip, the Instinct MI300X.- If AMD's latest high-end chip is good enough for the technology companies and cloud service providers building and serving AI models when it starts shipping early next year, it could lower costs for developing AI models, and put competitive pressure on Nvidia'- NVDA slid for a hot second - then buying happened again....- AMD stock up to $137 (about 10% from comments)Bitcoin- Bitcoin hit $44,000 last Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds.- Bitcoin down $4200 on this money...- Jamie Dimon thrashes out about crypto ----"I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, bitcoin, et cetera,"--- "If I was the government, I'd close it down,"M&A- U.S. health insurer Cigna has ended its attempt to negotiate an acquisition of rival Humana after the pair failed to agree on price- Instead - Cigna announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of shares- Shares rallied 12% on the news- HOW ABOUT LOWERING HEALTH INSURANCE COSTS???More M&A- An investor group consisting of Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital has made a $5.8 billion offer to take department store chain Macy's private, according to a person familiar with the matter on Sunday.- Is this for real or just pump and dump stunt?- Stock is up 70% in last 30 days - you think anyone knew about this?- WHY would someone buy a dying department store? Real Estate?New Strategy- Ganestop - OH MY- In its quarterly report released last Wednesday night, GameStop announced two changes to its corporate investment plan:1) company cash can now be used to buy equities instead of just short-term debt,2) and that Cohen is in charge of the investments.Blast from the Past- Picard, is the lawyer working on collecting for Madoff claims

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Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point.Tax Trap - Watch-out!Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS)Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..)- A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret?- China - credit rating issue- My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023Market Update- Gold at all-time high!- Bitcoin Update - Moving- Alt assets picking up - good or bad?- Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trapBitcoin- Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds.- Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11.- UP 165% YTD- Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021Gold- Hitting ATH-- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking?- Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak--- Time to buy?Rare Earth Metals- Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics.- China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity- US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner- FYI - RARE is not really rare- Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process- These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine.Oil Prices- Now Sitting at $72--- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waningCHINA- Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable- Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength.- Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds,- Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debtCanada- Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months- The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months.- New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October.Switzerland- A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service- Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors- Where does that money go?- Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said.- The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period.----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything?- Swiss banks are not so special anymore...VIX and Gamma- An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.

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Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for DecemberNovember was a pretty spectacular month for stocks...Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023- Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited- More strikes on the horizon- Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise|- Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days- A LimerickMarket Update- Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices- AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day !- - VIX hits low since the pandemic- KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters- Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing- OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday...- Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again....Following:- Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information- "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns."Word Watch- Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas- "ELEVATED"- Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds"- Pinky up!December - Traders and Investors heading for home....- Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth....- So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum- USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks and commodsVIX- FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today.- This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat- KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning)- S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH)----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line)Markets Love it!- Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really highBlack Friday Update- Cut and paste every year- US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation)- Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season.- Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year.- Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?)--- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5% (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and many looking for bargains- E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said.Bank Closures (JCD)- Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years.- Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.

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AI technology in the hot seat.Apple gives in to pressure on messagingShort week - plenty of action.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- CROCs CTP is almost over - 4 days until end... Then December starts the CTP CUP 2024!- - Back from an RCL cruise- my, have things changed- Market starting to overheat (KRI +5)- End of Year - Santa Claus Rally - on schedule- PSI - Markets Closed Thursday and after 1pm Friday- Big doings in Crypto World - Pied Pipers (Binance now in hot water)Market Update- WEIRD Action - in the AI Space - Fire, Quit, Oust and then Hire- USD continues to fall- VIX has a 13 handle- BIG news - NVDA earningsWhat in the?- Sam Altman pushed out over the weekend....--- Hair on FIRE in Silicon Valley- - Weekend scramble - MSFT picks up Altman to hear AI Unit- Hundreds of OpenAI employees have signed a letter demanding the board resign or face an employee exodus to Sam Altman’s new venture at Microsoft “eminently.”- What is going on?MORE OpenAI- OpenAI named ex-Twitch boss Emmett Shear as interim CEO- Commercialization of product seems to be at the heart of the matter- Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella said in posts on X that Altman would become CEO of a new research group inside the software maker, along with other departing OpenAI colleagues such as outgoing President Greg Brockman who quit following Altman's ouster.--- Was there a deeper and darker plan here?Hmmm- This sounds Off- OpenAI customers are looking for the exits, signaling a possible exodus of business that could devastate the startup.- More than 100 OpenAI customers contacted OpenAI competitor Anthropic over the weekend, a startup that has raised billions from both Amazon and Google in recent months, according to someone familiar with the situation.- Sounds like companies trying to create a corpse and pick on its remains or manufactroversy- A manufactured controversy is a contrived disagreement, typically motivated by profit or ideology, designed to create public confusion concerning an issue about which there is no substantial academic dispute. This concept has also been referred to as manufactured uncertainty. BitCoin ETF- I was interviewed about this very topic last week by Paul Barron (he intimated I was a boomer - look up the view)- The US Securities and Exchange Commission has deferred making a decision again on whether to approve the first US exchange-traded fund that invests directly in Bitcoin.- The primary US securities regulator deferred on filings from Franklin and Globe X, according to documents Friday. The deferrals come after delays for other filers because both companies had putMore Crypto Crap- Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is stepping down as CEO of Binance as part of a major $4 billion settlement between the Department of Justice and the cryptocurrency exchange he founded, according to sources close to the discussions with the agency.- The settlement will be with the DOJ and Commodities Futures Trading Commission; the Securities and Exchange Commission is not participating.- As part of the settlement, Zhao will also plead guilty to anti-money laundering charges brought by the Department of Justice. He is scheduled to enter the plea in federal court in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon, the Wall Street Journal reported.- Binance, the DOJ, CFTC, and SEC had not replied to requests for comment at the time of publication.- The SEC charged Binance, and its founder CZ, in June with operating an unregistered exchange and misleading investors by using a Switzerland-based fund Sigma Chain, which was also owned by CZ,

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Only days until money runs out - will the government shot-down?Markets on the herky-jerky, thanks to the Fed and Mr. Powell.Major retail earnings out this week - winners and losers.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- 4-days until shut- down / anyone care? (Shut up about shut-down already- Moody's angry - Moves US rating outlook- Croc's CTP Still Open of Entries|- Thanksgiving - What are we doing - menu items!- BOOM! CPI dips a bit ad market RAMP (KRE up 7% IWM up 5%+)Market Update- Herky Jerky - Thanks to Fed- Big names continue to push up index values- KRI +2 Slight Overheating- Retailers earnings this week, Walmart, Target Etc-- Consumers in the spotlightMoody's- Moody's on Friday changed the outlook on the government of United States of America's ratings to "negative" from "stable".- The rating agency said it expects United States' fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.- Moody's affirmed the long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at "Aaa".- Another wake up call to the administration/govy of US to get their shot together.Fed- Powell was in push-0back mode on Thursday on a speech that he clearly stated that there is probably more work to be done to conquer inflation- "If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so," Powell cautioned a market still betting both that rate hikes are done and that three cuts are coming next year, starting as soon as June.- Same day as the Bond market glitch, which as problematic- Not to worry, by Firiday no-one believed Powell an ran markets up hard (one of the best days for NAZ100 in 2023Consumers- The consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03% (CNBC Monitor)- The October data showed weakness in gas station sales, electronics and appliances and furniture and home stores. There was strength in sporting goods and hobby stores and non-store retails, or internet sales, along with health and personal care.Ransonware Attack - Biggest bank- Could this be the reason Treasury auction last Thursday was so weak (smacking down markets)- Sources told Bloomberg that ICBC Financial Services, a U.S. subsidiary of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, relied on the offline system to process trades of U.S. Treasuries after it was hit by a ransomware attack on Wednesday.- It could take days to reconnect ICBC to the electronic settlement system, Reuters reported.- Analysts say the attack, which disrupted the U.S. Treasury market on Thursday, was likely the work of LockBit, a Russia-linked criminal gang that was also accused of hacking Boeing earlier this year. Today, the group claimed responsibility in messages to reporters.Planes!- Emirates Airline on Monday announced an order for 95 Boeing aircraft at a value of $52 billion, kicking off the first major deal of the 2023 Dubai Airshow.- The state-owned flagship Dubai carrier, a subsidiary of Emirates Group, is ordering 55 additional Boeing 777-9s and 35 of its 777-8s, bringing the airline's total orders for the 777X widebody jets to 205 units. It is also updating its order of Boeing 787 Dreamliners from 30 to 35, comprised of 15 787-10s and 20 787-8s.- Being up 3% on the newsInteresting...- Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation- Exxon earlier this year purchased 120,000 acres of a geological site in southern Arkansas called the Smackover Formation that is rich in lithium.

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Markets on fire - is it for real?Announcing a new Closest to the Pin!Household debt update - market thoughts and more...PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- Following up on last week's data deluge- Wondering - was it a DCB or a BMR (Dead Cat Bounce - Bull Market Rally)- WeWork is now WeBroke- 70 hour workweek?- GUILTY-Another Shutdown countdownMarket Update- Household Debt reaches milestone- South Korea "leveling the playing field"- Best week of 2023- Apple Earnings (Does anyone care?)- Microsoft - Big MoveHeadline- U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on track for their longest streak of gains in two years, as a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields buoyed megacap growth stocks and investors sought more clarity on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.- Best week of 2023 - NASDAQ up 6%!Microsoft- Big Move!- OpenAI and other AI has been good tailwind for the company- Stock closing in on ATH-- H&C Clients own the stock MSFT CHARTFOLLOW UP : What to Expect from the Data Deluge- ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last- Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady)- ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction)- FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change)- (Add in Treasury issuance needed to make up deficit and Apple earnings)----- Result? Pretty much inline - Fed said one thing: Risk balanced about doing too much or too little and market went bananas--------Apple - Not impressive and outlook for this coming quarter not so good - but stock moves higherCountdown- November 17th is the end of the short-term budget extensionApple Earnings- EPS: $1.46 per share vs. $1.39 per share expected- Revenue: $89.5 billion vs. $89.28 billion expected- iPhone revenue: $43.81 billion vs. $43.81 billion expected- Mac revenue: $7.61 billion vs. $8.63 billion expected - iPad revenue: $6.44 billion vs. $6.07 billion expected- Wearables revenue: $9.32 billion vs. $9.43 billion expected- Services revenue: $22.31 billion vs $21.35 billion expected- Gross margin: 45.2% vs. 44.5% expected- - Outlook - Not Great - and blamed one less week in the 4th quarter on outlook- - - Stock Down initially then rose with marketSkinny Drugs- Novo Nordisk said on Thursday it will supply "significantly" more doses of Wegovy in the U.S. next year, even as it cautioned shortages of the weight-loss injection would continue in the short to medium term.- The Danish drugmaker, which this year overtook LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company, posted record operating profit and sales for the third quarter, underscoring the phenomenal success of Wegovy so far.-"Specifically on the U.S. market, we'll be supplying significantly more in 2024 compared to what we are in 2023," Novo's CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen said in an interview.- H&C clients own NVO for past several monthsMore Drugs- - Moderna said its 2023 sales would only hit the low end of its $6 billion to $8 billion forecast, reflecting weaker demand for COVID-19 vaccines, and its shares slumped 8%.- The vaccine maker also pushed back to 2025- Stock down 59% YTDHousehold Debt- "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows total household debt increased by $228 billion (1.3%) in the third quarter of 2023, to $17.29 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed's nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.- Mortgage balances rose by $126 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $12.14 trillion at the end of September.- Credit card balances increased by $48 billion ...

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Apple earnings are this week, along with a Fed rate decision, Treasury supply and the Employment report. A deluge of data over the next few days.War time markets - skittish and on edge.PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?Follow John C. Dvorak on TwitterFollow Andrew Horowitz on TwitterWarm Up- End of Earnings Season - Droop- Big Week - Treasury $, Apple Earnings, Fed Rate Decision and BLS Employment- All of a sudden - export bans may hurt chip companies (after denying any material impact)-Big prediction on oil prices (but market thinks otherwise)------ Oil signalling less concern- EV's all of a sudden a cold shoulderMarket Update- Apple News - Weird time of day (8pm Monday)- Biden AI Executive Order - May hit some stocks- Strikes just about over in Car Country - big costs- Data deluge this week - expect investors to be on edgeOIL Prediction- World bank out with prediction- Worst case scenario, if war widens could result in increased food prices worldwide- If no expansion - oil will average $81 next year- Medium disruption - prices up 35%- Large disruption - prices could go up 50-75%Market Technical View- Defined Channel- DOWN MARKET TRENDWhat to Expect from the Data Deluge- ISM on Friday (Services) - 53 vs 53 last- Employment - 160k and 3.8% (steady)- ISM Manufacturing 49 vs 49 (contraction)- FOMC Rate Decision (pause/pass/no change)- (Add in Treadury issuance needed to make up deficit and Apple earnings)Ganging up on Yellen- Several critical comments about Yellen's term as Treasury Secratary and Fed Chair--- Could have issued and locked in VERY cheap rates for long-term (50/00 yer bonds?)----- Idea is sound, but there are other considerations that could have been problematicApple Update- Apple on Monday (at 8PM ET) announced a new MacBook Pro lineup featuring the all-new family of M3 chips: M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max. With a next-generation GPU architecture and a faster CPU, the M3 family brings even more performance and remarkable new capabilities to MacBook Pro.- The new 14?inch MacBook Pro with M3 is not only great for everyday tasks, but also delivers phenomenal sustained performance in pro apps and games. Perfect for aspiring creatives, students, and entrepreneurs, it now starts at $1,599.- The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Pro provides even greater performance and additional unified memory support, enabling more demanding workflows for users like coders, creatives, and researchers.- The 14- and 16?inch MacBook Pro with M3 Max delivers performance and capabilities that push the limits of computing.- basically - faster chips, new finish to case (black )- Apple also cut the price of its entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro, from at least $1999 to $1599, although it gets a less powerful M3 chip, instead of the "Pro"-level chip on last year's model.- Note - 3 days before earnings as the Mac sales have been an issue in a decline sales environment (3 consecutive YOY declines)Follow Up - Florida Real Estate- Due to the Sufside building collapse, new laws for reserve set-asides.--- This is on top of the added costs for HOA and COA insurance increaes- “People are going to be losing their homes. Foreclosures are increasing,” warned Broward County Commissioner Mark Bogen. “As it looks right now, there are going to be so many people unable to live in their homes…. This is going to really be a crisis in our state.”- DECADES - condo associations did not put aside enough $ for future repairs, now new law could require rainy day funds---- (Ultimately this will be retracted if fully implemented as condo prices will crash)- Not limited to FloridaExecutive Order

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All the rage - let's test our testosterone - then shave our legs!

China has figured it out....How to hurt the USA

Elon - listening in and shitting down

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big week - Inflation eyed - 10-year near 4.3% - One European country looks the worst - one recession - Biden - 5-day world tour - Soft landing - everyone talking about it - Oh, Elon

Market Update - Not such a great month so far.... - China starting to panic (that may be good) -- 2 IPOs on Tap - M&A - One food deal announced - Apple .... More China restrictions (interesting)

Happy New Year - Rosh Hashana Friday night.

Tesla Upgrade - Tesla Inc.’s Dojo supercomputer may add as much as $500 billion to the company’s market value through faster adoption of robotaxis and network services, according to Morgan Stanley. - Dojo can open up “new addressable markets,” just like AWS did for Amazon.com Inc., analysts led by Adam Jonas wrote in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from equal-weight and raising its 12-month price target to a Street-high $400 per share from $250. - Adam Jonas had a $250 price for Tesla for a while and was not really positive on the shares. But, many say he likes headlines, so this is a perfect way to play it. - Jonas cut his price and overall recommendation in June - Tesla shares up 10% on this upgrade (BTW, Morgan is one of Elon Musk's key advisory firms - so there is that)

China - Freaking out? - China's financial regulator on Sunday reduced the risk weighting it attaches to insurance companies' holdings of blue-chip shares and tech stocks, encouraging them to invest more in the country's lagging stock market. - The National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR)said on its website that the risk weighting for CSI300 Index constituents would be reduced to 0.3 from 0.35, while that for stocks listed on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market would be cut to 0.4, from 0.45. - A lower risk weighting frees up more capital for insurers to invest. - It also set a relatively low risk weighting for private equity investments in China's strategic and emerging sectors.

More China - China's economic slowdown could increase the risk of Beijing taking military action toward Taiwan, the Republican chair of a U.S. congressional committee on China said on Monday, drawing a contrast with Democratic President Joe Biden, who said it made it less likely. - So this has to be a dividing line as well?

Biden on Sunday called China's econ

Yen - Japan - In a weekend interview, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank could end its 7-year-old negative interest rate policy when achievement of its 2% inflation target is in sight - suggesting the BOJ is considering official interest rate hikes as well as an early end its bond-buying, yield cap policy. - The comments seemed to catch markets off guard, sending the 10-year Japanese government bond yield up more than 5 basis points to a 9-year high above 0.7%. The yen surged 1% against the dollar, knocking the U.S. currency back more generally on the foreign exchange markets.

Tech - Qualcomm said Monday that it will supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026. - Wall Street analysts and Qualcomm officials had previously said they expected Apple to use an internally developed 5G modem starting in 2024. - The continued sales to Apple will boost Qualcomm's handsets business, which reported $5.26 billion in sales in the quarter ended in June, and could soften the blow of potentially losing a critical customer. About 21% of Qualcomm's fiscal 2022 revenue of $44.2 billion came from Apple, according to a UBS estimate.

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China putting out stimulus ideas daily.

Traffic jam in Panama!

Weather is causing all sorts of problems

Crude oil prices on the rise

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Warm Up
- COVID making the rounds again - J Biden tests positive
- Weight loss
- UAL Full ground stop today
- Gone Private - Back to the Public life (ARM)
- More bailouts in China
- InfaDisinFlation - Slowing Deflation?

Market Update
- Hurricane Idalia - The $$ cost to insurers
- Employment reports - mixed to good. Fed friendly (but rates creeping again)
- What is happening to pharmacies?
- GOVY shutdown clock continues
- Oil is still rising
- Back to School

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Employment Report
- Revisions to last two months (better)
- Payrolls increased to 187,000
- Unemployment rate @3.8%
- Rates came down a bit and markets took this as good news

VFS Stock

China
- Continued problems with the economy
- New measures over the past week to help real estate sector and lenders
- Looks like injection of funds into Country Garden
- USD moving to highs against the Yuan

OIL
- Even though there is a concern about China's economy - oil keeps rising
- Oil prices rose on Friday to their highest in over half a year and snapped a two-week losing streak, buoyed by expectations of tightening supplies.
- Saudi Arabia decided to keep (extend) the voluntary cuts into October
--- 1 million barrels per day
-- Crude oil up 8% YTD - BUT, 21% in the last 3-months
----- How does that fit with the deflationary story?

Supply Chain/Weather Issues
- The average wait time for non-booked vessels at the Panama Canal jumped by between 44% and 59% last month as a prolonged drought led to restrictions on daily transits and ship drafts.
- The Panama Canal Authority began imposing the restrictions earlier this year in a move to conserve water. Only 32 vessels with a draft of up to 44 feet are now allowed to pass everyday, from 36 ships and maximum draft of 50 feet in normal conditions.
- Waiting time averaged 8.85 days for southbound transit and 9.44 days for northbound passage in August, from 5.56 days and 6.55 days, respectively, in July, according to data from the Panama Canal Authority.

VinFast
- Follow up - OH My - down 70% from peak

ARM
- Chip design firm Arm on Tuesday submitted an updated filing for its upcoming blockbuster initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, setting a price range between $47 and $51.
- Only 9.4% of Arm’s shares will be freely traded on the NYSE.
- Arm was previously dually listed in London and New York, before SoftBank acquired it for $32 billion in 2016.

Shoot it up!
- Novo Nordisk launched its weight-loss injection Wegovy in Britain on Monday, its second debut in Europe in just over a month as the drugmaker seeks to expand in the region even as it struggles to keep up with soaring demand.
- Surging demand for the drug, and Novo's highly effective diabetes drug Ozempic, have sent the company's shares and earnings to record highs.
- So no problem taking these shots.....(only very recently approved for weight loss as it is a diabetes medicine)
- MIRACLE DRUG - Get that shot in the belly roll!|
- Danish drugmaker (Novo Nordisk) briefly unseated LVMH as Europe's most valuable listed company in intraday trading on Friday, ending the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign at the top.

COVID
- First lady Jill Biden’s positive test for Covid-19 threatens to upend President Joe Biden’s plans to travel to the G-20 summit in India, coming just days before his expected departure.
- The White House announced the first lady’s result Monday night and said she was experiencing only mild symptoms. The president himself was tested Monday evening and found to be negative.

Burning Man
- Anyone out there go?
- JCD: Reports back?
- Thousands of Burning Man attendees readied to make their "exodus" on Monday as the counter-culture arts festival in the Nevada desert ends in a sea of drying mud instead of a party around its flaming effigy namesake.
- On the way in- reports of multi hours waits on road at a standstill due to protest
- On way out rain created a shelter in place as conditions were dangerous
- Surely no one way dissuaded from going again next year - maybe even encouraged a few ?

AIRLINE NEWS
- United FULL GROUND STOP "We are experiencing a system-wide technology issue and are holding all aircraft at their departure airports. Flights that are already airborne are continuing to their destination as planned. We will share more information as it becomes available. Thank you for your patience as we work on a resolution to get you on your way as soon as possible." (approx 30 minutes or so)
- Southwest Air says during the Labor Day holiday, from Thursday through Monday, the Southwest Team operated more than 19,000 flights and achieved a flight completion factor of almost 99%

Pharmacies
- Walgreens Boots Alliance -2.3% stays on its downhill trajectory after S&P announced Friday after the close that Deere (DE) would replace the company in the S&P 100; follows news of CEO Rosalind Brewer's departure
- Shares remain stuck around 2009 lows
- CVS doing better but still down 30% this year

Shutdown ?
- The U.S. government will shut down at midnight on Sept. 30 if Congress fails to pass spending legislation.
- Freedom Caucus and other republicans want concessions like ZERO for Ukraine, Impeachment hearing for Biden and $$ for borders
- But more stimulus
- - The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday moved to extend mandatory overtime pay to 3.6 million salaried workers, going even further than an Obama-era rule that was struck down in court.
------- The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) released a proposed rule that would require employers to pay overtime premiums to workers who earn a salary of less than $1,059 per week, or about $55,000 per year.
- The current salary threshold of about $35,500 per year was set by the Trump administration in a 2020 rule that worker advocates and many Democrats have said did not go far enough.

$$ at the Banks
- Lending seems to be slowing for several reasons
- Profitability with current yield curve is an issue
- U.S. lenders are holding onto large piles of cash as insurance against a slowing economy, continuing deposit outflows and looming tougher liquidity rules that could particularly impact mid-sized banks.
---- Estimates are $3.3 trillion on hold
------ Still not near the peak in 2022 (Slightly higher than at start of 2023)

Weather and $$
- Hurricane Idalia - Losses mounting
- Private market insured losses are expected to be between $3 billion and $5 billion due to Hurricane Idalia which struck the Big Bend region of Florida last week
- The good news? Less than expected

Shopify gets the Amazon Nod
- The company said it struck a deal with Amazon to offer its "Buy with Prime" program to merchants.
- The companies announced late Wednesday that U.S.-based Shopify merchants will soon be able to access Amazon's Buy with Prime service, which allows them to add the Prime logo and offer Amazon's quick-turnaround delivery options on their storefronts.

Homebuilders
- Despite high inflation and rising mortgage rates, homebuilder stocks have been remarkably strong so far in 2023. For instance, prior to today, Toll Brothers (TOL) had surged by nearly 70%, while Lennar (LEN), D.R. Horton (DHI), and PulteGroup (PHM) had soared by 33%, 34%, and 8%, respectively.
- Today, though, investors are locking in some profits as the 10-year Treasury Bond -- which fixed mortgage rates tend to track -- climbs higher and puts further strain on would-be home buyers.

Back to School
- Back-to-school US spending set to hit record high in 2023
- The National Retail Federation, a retail trade group, predicts spending will surpass $135 billion, an increase of more than $24 billion from last year.
- - Credit cards tapped according to many big box and retailers
----- Quick calc - 22% with $5,000 outstanding - $92/month will take 309 months

Hmmmmm.
- BlackRock and Vanguard drastically scale back support of ESG projects like 'racial equity' and 'reproductive rights'
- For better or for worse, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in June 2023 that he would no longer use the term "ESG" because it has been "weaponized by the far left and the far right."
- "I don't use the word ESG anymore, because it has been entirely weaponized," Fink stated.
- "I'm a big believer that you have to focus on all your stakeholders," he added. "But I'm not going to use the word ESG because it has been misused."
- BlackRock denied attacks that it was succumbing to right-wing pressure and said it was "solely to advance the financial interests of our clients."

Pot News
- This week, the Department of Health and Human Services asked the Drug Enforcement Agency to consider easing restrictions on marijuana upon a review of its classification under the Controlled Substances Act.
- MJ Stocks moved on this news
- Since the 1970s, marijuana has been listed alongside heroin and LSD as Schedule I drugs, or substances that authorities say have no accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.
- The DEA will consider moving marijuana down to a Schedule III drug, alongside ketamine, anabolic steroids and testosterone as a substance that has moderate to low potential for physical or psychological dependence. The recommendation, however, will not de-schedule marijuana.

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We have some insights from Powell's latest speech.

China - trying to talk up markets.

Big week for eco data - the softer, the better.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Powell Said - NOTHING NEW, Nothing Old, Nothing Really - Unions are next concern for inflation (wages) - Airlines weighing people - Big week for ECO - investors hoping for some weak numbers

Market Update - China - Stock Market Support - Govy Trying - markets up last week 0- broke a couple week down streak - End of month - markets watching for employment data this week (Friday) - Players hitting the ask on high-flyers - ESG - not for $ - Crypto Moving on court rulling

SPECIAL EPISODE -666. We are asking you for your support on this devlish episode 666 - Donate exactly 66.60 - BUT Donors that go out for the big $666 will get a copy of Too Many Eggs hardcopy - that is well worth it.

Big Bounce - Fed threads the needle again - Or the algos set to just buy as Fed talks - Butting up against resistance - Looks more like oversold bounce into end of month

Yields - 10-Year - drops to 4.25 from 4.45% - Plenty arguing that the latest move was a top in rates - Avg mortgage rate tops 7%

Yields - Tuesday Drop - Yeilds and USd dumping after soft JOLTs report - This is a good JOLTS report from the Fed's perspective. The labor market is cooling. U.S. job openings decreased to 8.8 million (lower than consensus expectations of 9.5), the lowest since March 2021. The mismatch between labor demand (openings) & labor supply (hired) narrowed. - Growht names moving up - dragging entire market with them

Unions - Pushing hard for wage hikes - Big increase for pilots and UPS drivers recently - UAW President is looking for proposals that include: (or threat of a strike) - Ford GM and Stellantis - - 46% raise ---- 32 hour work week --- Return to traditional pensions - Recently won a 25% pay hike for workers at Ohio EV factory

Crypto in the News - Appeals court ruling against SEC in Grayscale spot bitcoin ETF case - so the idea is that there will be a more accessible way to invest in bitcoin (like it is not now) |- Could be included in peions - Grayscale Trusts: GBTC +18%, ETHE +14%, GDLC +22%... Crypto Miners: MARA +17%, GREE +17%, HUT +16%, RIOT +15%, BITF +14%, SDIG +14%... Others with Crypto exposure: COIN +13.5%, MSTR +7.7%, NVDA +3%

ECO This Week - Wednesday --- ADP Emplyment Change - (180k) --- GDP (2) 2.4% - Thursday ---- PCE Inflation 0.2% (MoM)* - Friday --- Non Farm Payrolls 185k /3.6% --- ISM Manufacturing ---Average Hourly earnings 0.3% MoM

China - manipulated market - China's stock market in disarray - China Evergrande reopens after 17 month tradig halt (Stock plunges 80%) - Government starting to talk up market - been in a funk for a while --- Reduces stamp duty on stock transactions and other measures to boost confidence (and approves dozens of new funds for investing over weekend) ---- Stock market (CSI 300) opened up 5.5% but trended lower all day Monday (closed up 1.5%) - Lenders and Developer hardships spooking investors AND draining their finances

More China - China's foreign ministry said on Monday that inbound travelers to the country no longer need a pre-departure antigen test for COVID-19 from Aug. 30. - US study shows that the abrupt end to Covid restrictions last year may have caused an excess of 2 million deaths. --- Study showed an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes occurred among people over 30 years of age between December 2022 and January 2023, and were observed in all provinces in mainland China (China said a total of 55,

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More Talk from Feds - Jackson Hole Confab

Another government shutdown looming?

Hot Dogs, get Your Hot Dogs!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - US Rates on the move - Jackson Hole Confab this week - Powell talking Friday - Another government shutdown looming? (September) - Russian Moon Landing - Not so good - Hot Dog Wars - Schmuchalucks

Market Update - China freaking out investors - not showing big support - The S&P 500 index fell 2.1% last week, extending the market benchmark's losing streak to a third consecutive week as bond yields climbed to highs not seen in years. - The drop came as Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs; the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and the 30-year Treasury yield reached a 12-year high - The SPAC is back? IPO opps? Parts of the market still yearning for risk (casino vs investing) - Moody's gets into the fray - cuts bank ratings

Yields - Moving - 10-Year tops 4.35%++ - Long-term on a losing streak --- Meaning: High rates for longer being accepted by markets - also spread may narrow on curve - Minutes released this week from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicated most committee members saw "significant upside risks" to inflation, which could prompt the central bank to further raise its benchmark lending rate. Long vs. Short 10-Year Pop! Moody's - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades. Inflation - Rice - Rice prices surged to their highest in almost 12 years, after India's rice export ban and adverse weather conditions dented production and supplies of Asia's primary staple food, according to the UN's food agency.

Tesla - Tesla shares (TSLA) led the consumer discretionary sector's drop, falling 11% last week as reports said the electric vehicle maker reduced the prices for its premium Model S and Model X vehicles in China, its second price cut in the country this week. - The company also launched two cheaper versions of its Model S sedan and Model X sports utility vehicle in the US.

NVDA - Earnings out on 8/23 - a good bit of optimism going into the print - Recent upgrade to the stock - HSBC upped their tgt on NVIDIA (NVDA) to $780 from $600

Odd Tech - Earnings AFTER the close on Friday (last) --- Worried investors - why would a company do that? (Friday Night Dump?) - - - Stock is ramping higher on the news.... - Palo Alto Networks — The security software vendor soared 12.5% following an earning's beat after the Friday market close. Fiscal fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.44, topping the $1.28 expected from analysts polled by Refinitiv. Revenue, however, fell short

Earnings Roundup - Fabrinet surged 21% after its fiscal fourth-quarter results late Monday topped analysts' estimates. The advanced manufacturing services company posted non-GAAP earnings of $1.86 per share, greater than the $1.80 earnings per share expected - Dicks Sporting Goods shares plunged nearly 20% after the retailer reported an earnings miss and cut guidance for the year, due in part to an increase in retail theft ----- The tell ? Dicks announced management layoff and cost savings a day before the earnings - Macy's slid about 1.6% after reporting second-quarter earnings.

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Economy on fire in the US - while China sinks to new lows.

Housing market sentiment slows - hit by high mortgage rates.

Big break for big insurers.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news (AGAIN) - FITCH - at it again - M&A in Steel industry - China eco spooks markets (Ghost Economics hits) - Impact of Maui Fires - Focus on A Utility Company

Market Update - Sentiment shifting - AI craze dulls some tech selling off - Housing index drops - (builder sentiment) - 7% mortgage rates hit hard - EV price wars - led by Elon (beat them and bury them) - Disinflation is slowing ( Confusing?)

Inflation - PPI comes out hot - Concern rising that there is commodity inflation returning - Talk of one more hike this year then cuts mid-2024 (Goldman Sachs Update) - Meanwhile - rates movin' up 10's Moving Yield Curve - Getting Crazy! 2/10's Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week

Fitch - Another Warning - Discussed the rationale with Moody's last week - A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase. - Another one-notch downgrade of the industry's score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers

Yen - Intervention - Yen hits 145 - level that has had BOJ intervention previously - Weakening due to easy monetary policy while everywhere else is tightening Yen Japan - 6% GDP (annualized) - expectations were for 3.1% - How do you keep rates at historic lows?

China - Just bad news after bad news - So bad they announce a surprise rate cut last night - Discontinued reporting on unemployment of young people - (was record level of 21%+ last month) - Retail sales rose by 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, - Industrial production rose by 3.7% in July from a year ago, below the 4.4% increase analysts had expected - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the first seven months of the year from a year ago, below the 3.8% forecast - The urban unemployment rate ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June

More China - One of China’s largest private wealth managers has triggered fresh anxiety about the health of the country’s shadow banking industry after missing payments on multiple high-yield investment products. - Zhongzhi is among the biggest players in the country’s $2.9 trillion trust industry, which combines characteristics of commercial and investment banking, private equity and wealth management. - Firms in the sector pool savings from wealthy households and corporate clients to offer loans and invest in real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities.

Russian Ruble Woes - Ruble hits 17 month low - discussion that this is because Russia losing the war? - Russia's central bank on Tuesday hiked interest rates by 350 basis points to 12% at an emergency meeting

Cage Fight - Done - Zuck: "I think we can all agree Elon isn't serious and it's time to mo...

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YIELDS and the Curve - getting weirder.

Bear Twist -Tucked and ran.

Earnings season update - big change this week to end the season.

The Closest to The Pin standings!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Musk/Zuck cage-fight news - Yields spike - Yield curve spreads - Prominent Bear - begs for mercy (Bullish Bear?) - Beer Ball - Reversing The Trend - Banks - Bowie: Under Pressure (who Else was featured on that song?)

Market Update - Market Moving - earnings and ECO - Eco report was confusing many - what is the deal? - Earnings - some big hits and some big misses - An update on earnings season - Markets bummed - more downgrades, China data sucks

30 Second Shameless Host Plugs

Inflation - Key CPI report out this week (tomorrow) - but many looking for consistent drop (AH sees potential for near-term bounce higher in inflation) - 3.5% - but weaker additions to payroll/jobs. - Wage growth kicking up again - Manheim Used Car Index -1.6% m/m, -11.6% yr/y (seeing moderation, but prices still high) Employment China Eco - China said Tuesday that exports fell by 14.5% in July from a year ago, while imports dropped by 12.4% in U.S. dollar terms. - That's worse than what analysts had expected. - A Reuters poll predicted a 12.5% decline in exports in July from a year ago, in U.S. dollar terms. Imports were expected to have dropped by 5% during that time, according to the poll.

Yield Curve - The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. - Lots of talk from Bill Ackman about shorting the long end of the curve (20-30 yr)

Earnings Season - Almost ending - The blended year-over-year earnings decline for the second quarter is -5.2% today, compared to an earnings decline of -7.4% last week and an earnings decline of -7.0% at the end of the second quarter (June 30). - If -5.2% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year earnings decline reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%). It will also mark the third straight quarter in which the index has reported a year-over-year decrease in earnings. - Big mega-cap numbers helped over last week

DOWNGRADES - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several U.S. banks on Monday and warned it was reviewing the status of some of the nation's biggest lenders. - Moody's cut the ratings of 10 U.S. banks by one notch and placed some banking giants on review for potential downgrades. The agency also changed its outlook to negative for several major lenders. Overall, it changed the assessments for 27 banks in the sector. - The downgraded banks include M&T Bank, Pinnacle Financial Partners, Prosperity Bank and BOK Financial Corp . - The banks placed on review for downgrade include BNY Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial. -"Many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's wrote in a note.

Italy! - How Do You Say Morons in Italian? - deficiente OR il ritardato - Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' "excess" profits in 2023. - Just off negative rates and banks being punished again - Italian Deputy Prime Matteo Salvini told a press conference on Monday that the 40% levy on banks' extra profits derived from higher interest rates, amounting to several billion euros, will be used to cut taxes and offer financial support to mortgage holders.

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X Platform is here. Or is it Platform X?

China economic condition is of interest.

Plenty of interesting earnings reports to discuss

The Fed lifts rates - how is that playing out?

Announcing a new Closest to The Pin!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - X or EX? May be the start of something or maybe the end of something - Saying goodbye to Pee-Wee - Crazy Meme-type crowd buying again - Sending big weapons package to Taiwan - Big news on Mac and Cheese (follow up) - The Bankruptcy Squeeze - fun market moves

Market Update - July - great returns across the board - UBER - first ever profit - but there is more to the story - China markets are hot - but their economic condition is horrible - Credit card fee fight - Big boys looking to stop bleed - Fed lifts rates - once again can't help dovish talk - Almost a record! DJIA - Crude WTI at $82, 10Yr at 4.01% - FITCH!

July Recap - Markets July Snapshot Overview

DJIA Record - Almost - Respectable run for 13 days straight days - It missed the opportunity to tie its longest rally on record: a 14-session run in 1897. - Since the Dow's inception in 1897, there have been nearly 33,000 trading days. In that time, we've seen a single 14-day streak of gains and two streaks that ended at 13 positive sessions in a row. Prior to this week, the last 13-day rally was in January 1987.

FED - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still needed to slow and the labor market to weaken for inflation to "credibly" return to the U.S. central bank's 2% target. - "The (Federal Open Market) Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy, - During the press conference, every-time he tried to have a hawkish moment - he pulled it back with a softening of the stance

FITCH - United States ratings cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA", reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, growing government debt, and erosion of governance related to peers - In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process.

X SIGN - Twitter is now Platform X -- Somehow this is going to become the platform for all things??? === ELON put up a BIG lighted sign on roof of HQ - forced to rip it down after complaints --- On Monday, CNBC saw workers dismantling the glowing X, removing its lights and an arm of the letter, after the construction drew several complaints from neighbors and city officials. The complaints said that it was unpermitted, is a nuisance and, in one complaint, that its flashing lights made it hard to sleep.

More Musk - JCD - Pluralistic Article about Tesla's Dieselgate, and Musk lies - https://pluralistic.net/2023/07/28/edison-not-tesla/#demon-haunted-world

Mega Millions - Now over $1BILLION --- If there is a grand-prize winner in Tuesdays's drawing, that player can choose to receive the $1.05 billion jackpot in installments or a lump-sum cash payment of $527.9 million, Mega Millions said --- For most people that are playing - realize that about 40% goes to the government. So, you are sending the government 40% of every dollar you spend on lottery.

Uber

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Panic over the potential NASDAQ 100 rebalance and here is what happened.

Following up on the multi-billion dollar lose by Goldman - AppleCard a bust?

The Fed and other important market moving events on the top of out list this week.

Announcing a new Closest to The Pin!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Another big deal - panic ended up a nothingburger - Summer Travel upended as wildfires heat up Europe - Biden-omics, this is a thing? - AI - coders going to be goners

Market Update - Mega-Cap Tech earnings - Fed meeting this week - odds favor a hike - Bull run continues - Media all abuzz about the DJIA run - most consecutive up days since 2017 - P/E ration on SP500 now at 19.6 (forward) with a negative or zero growth rate

Consumer Confidence - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117.0 in July (Briefing.com consensus 111.5) from an upwardly revised 110.1 (from 109.7) in June. - In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 95.3. - The July reading marks the highest level for the Consumer Confidence Index since July 2021. - Big jump in UMich last week as well ---- FED HAS TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS Consumer Confidence Fear/Greed - Extreme Greed Fear/Greed Index Fear/Greed History Microsoft Earnings - Good overall , guides soft for Sept quarter, shares drop 4% AH

Google Earnings - AI big driver, good advert numbers, they like what they see - shares jump 6% AH

Interesting - All of a Sudden - News that AT&T and Verizon may have lead cable problem --- Raymond James analysts wrote in a note that they estimate AT&T could spend between $264 million and $1.2 billion to remove lead-covered cables. If the company is required to remove all the lead-clad cables, it could cost AT&T roughly $84 million a year in a 15 to 25-year process, the analysts wrote. - Pratt & Whitney determined that a rare condition in powder metal used to manufacture certain engine parts will require accelerated fleet inspection (RTX down 15% on news as they premise to compensate airlines for the disruption) --- Powdered metal had a containment in it and the company started inspecting. ----- There is a concern that fleet needs to be inspected more rapidly. -------- The company expects to inspect another 1000 units next year and expects a very small fallout rate. - This will cause distribution to the airlines. -------------- Decliners: ULCC -5.79% LUV -5.60% JBLU -5.39% HA -5.42% UAL -3.96% DAL -3.14% AAL -2.87% SAVE -2.24

Greece Tourism - Fires burning since Wednesday on Rhodes forced the evacuation of 19,000 people over the weekend as an inferno reached coastal resorts on the island's southeastern coast. - Rhodes and Corfu are among Greece's top destinations for tourists mainly from Britain and Germany. - Tour operators Jet2, TUI and Corendon cancelled flights leaving for Rhodes. Britain's easyJet said on Sunday it was operating two repatriation flights on Monday from Rhodes to London's Gatwick airport in addition to the nine flights already operating between the island and Gatwick. - - AND: The heatwave engulfing the northern hemisphere is set to intensify this week, causing overnight temperatures to surge and leading to an increased risk of heart attacks and deaths, the World Meteorological Organization said on Tuesday. - - - - The WMO warned that the heatwave was in its early phases, saying it expected temperatures in North America, Asia, North Africa and the Mediterranean to be above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) "for a prolonged number of days this week as the heatwave intensifies".

Special Rebalance on Monday - Not as much volatility on the Mega=cap names with the NAS...

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bank earnings are out - same pattern as usual.

China economy slipping further. Oil prices coming up as summer disruptions hit pipelines.

Massive raises in the airline sector - 40%. At the same time, Ford slashing prices.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Bank Earnings - Friday the usual - Markets Trying very hard to stay positive - key analyst upgrades - Toffee Pretzels with Old Bay - Client Sent me a batch - McAllens Best Toffee (reasonably priced too!) - Big price hikes and bigger price cuts - M&A - Microsoft deal makes DOJ look silly and may pave way for more activity - A look at a very bad stock chart - you probably won't believe the company

Market Update - China economics - from bad to worse (what happened to that re-opening trade?) - All about AI - wait to hear in the next batch of earnings reports - Luxury firms feeling the heat after China's poor eco readings - Technicals - MOMO and FOMO - Ahead of Earnings - Clearly some excess exuberance in markets

ECO - Two-year U.S. inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury market fell as low as 1.88% on Friday and held at 1.90% on Monday, well below the Fed's 2% target. - Surveys showing surging U.S. household confidence in June, as real wage growth turns positive and jobs remain plentiful, saw a hesitation in interest rate markets on Friday as Fed officials enter a blackout period before the July 26 decision. - Crude moving higher (this week it was because of supply disruptions and OPEC cuts) - Bets are that Fed will increase by 0.25% next week and probably be done. (Even though they are strutting around still talking about at least 2 more hikes and no thoughts about a cut anytime soon. - USD lowest level against a basket of currencies since April 2022 (also showing that expectations are for a Fed to chill out) ---10Y Treasuries - Down from triple top near 4.10% to 3.8%

Retail Sales - Total retail sales in June increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%), yet May sales were revised up to 0.5% (from 0.3%). Excluding autos, June retail sales also increased a weaker-than-expected 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an upwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.1%) in May. After accounting for the upward revisions to May sales, the June results were roughly consistent with expectations.

(Briefing) The key takeaway from the report is that control group sales, which are used in the computation for personal spending in the GDP report, were up a solid 0.6%, leaving them far afield of an economy in recessionary distress.

Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales increased 0.3% month-over-month following a 1.5% increase in May.
Gasoline station sales declined 1.4% month-over-month after declining 2.1% in May.
Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealer sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month after increasing 1.4% in May.
Food and beverage store sales decreased 0.7% month-over-month after being unchanged in May.
Nonstore retailer sales jumped 1.9% month-over-month after increasing 0.7% in May.
Food services and drinking places sales rose 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 1.2% in May.
Electronics and appliance store sales increased 1.1% month-over-month following a 2.1% increase in May.

Bank Earnings - Schwab comes up smelling sweet - Big flood of new accounts, deposits and decent earnings - Bank of America - Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.88 per share, $0.04 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 11.1% year/year to $25.2 bln vs the $24.98 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock up 4%) ----- Revenue, net of interest expense, increased 11% to $25.

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Make it or break it time - earnings season is right ahead...

Fed heads - 8 speakers this week.

Tesla - blows away delivery estimates - what that means for profitability.

Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is make or break - Earnings season is here - Hot weather and hot inflation - 8 Fed Speakers this week - CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect - Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy!

Market Update - Resilient - that's the word - Eco divergence as employment stays strong - Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests - Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call) - Big best on rising USD being reversed

AI - Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service. - Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free. - If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles - How did it avoid the paywall? ---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem.

META - New Threads is threat to Twitter ---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion) - META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already - Twitter is threatening to sue (of course)

West Wing Scandal? - White powder was found in the White House last week - Turned out to be Cocaine... - - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House?

Best Stock Market - This year (to date) ??? - Zimbabwe ---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains - Up 800% YTD - Argentina up only 100% in 2023 Best Market 2023 FOLLOW UP - Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets - Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries?

Change of Plans - Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout --- By appointment only? - Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex ---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon.

Jobs/Employment - End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina - July saw a slight uptick in initial claims - ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls - BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6% -- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth ---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates

Fed Rate Plans - Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July - 10 year treasury over 4% - 2 year treasury over 5% - Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time) -- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025 ------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself

Meanwhile - Rates do not seem to be bothering many... --- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high --- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip - - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH

China Economy - Another story - PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations - Industrial profits are in bad shape - Factory activity is in contraction for last few months - Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing

TESLA - Big print on deliveries

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National Debt - Which way is it moving?

Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply alert...

Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - what that really means.

New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)

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Warm Up - National Debt - Which way is it moving? - Booming business - converting ICE to EV - Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply - Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting - New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge) - Happy belayed Juneteenth

Market Update - Bulls are in control - half full - Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them - ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession - Economic point to downside risk - China stimulus on the way

NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas) --- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up

Fed Meeting - Looked like a hawkish call - Unanimous decision to hold this meeting - Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25% - Markets are not buying it.. --- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion - What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news ----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive

Fed Follow Up - Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months. - Led by the Mega-caps again. - Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend

Even more Fed Follow up - Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year. - In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector. - "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said. - That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit. ----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis. - Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain."

Economics - Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles. - Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims. - Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years. - That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.

Crypto - According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian. - The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

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Tipping - where we stand on the issue.

Oil prices plummeting - sign of the impending recession?

Tipping and other interesting "fatigues" are starting to set in.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - PGA Tour partners with LIV - Back from Bahamas - the water is clear and the sand is soft white - AI still the rage! - Zuck sneers at Apple - Epstein - JP Morgan Update - Tipping Fatigue

Market Update - Markets Climbing the Wall of Worry - Beer Wars - Taking Share back from Craft Brewers - Rolling Recessions - Eurozone enters official recession - BOA Moynihan has some comments... - Seems like some Fatigue is approaching - too far, too fast

Zuck on Apple VR Headset - Zuck points out that every Apple Vision Pro VR demo 'was a person sitting on a couch by themself' - He explains, "our vision for the metaverse and presence is fundamentally social. It’s about people interacting in new ways and feeling closer in new ways. Our device is also about being active and doing things. - "By contrast, every demo that they showed was a person sitting on a couch by themself. I mean, that could be the vision of the future of computing, but like, it’s not the one that I want."

LARRRRY! - Lary Ellison - Oracle - Good earnings report - plenty of orders coming in.... - The Oracle founder has surpassed Bill Gates to rank fourth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index as shares of the software firm have climbed 42% this year.

Golf - PGA and LIV merging - A great deal of unrest about this - PGA trying to figure out ways to help those that stuck it out and maybe penalize LIV players - PGA said they could not afford to keep battling Saudi Arabia - All pending litigation has been cancelled. - One player Rory Mcilroy is really not happy about it and very vocal

Golf - US Open - Los Angeles Country Club - 290 Yard Par 3?

Beer - I Like Beer - Anheuser-Busch InBev and Molson Coors Beverage are set to gain market share from craft beer makers in the United States this year as cost-conscious consumers are opting for cheaper six-packs, according to analysts and industry experts. - Analysts polled by Refinitiv expect annual revenue to grow about 6% for Molson Coors and 7.5% for AB InBev in 2023, while craft beer maker Boston Beer Co is expected to post a near 3% fall in revenue, compared with last year's 1.6% rise. - "Most cost-conscious consumers are still buying the same volume of beer, but in the less expensive category of beer,"

Beer Beer AI Time - Big worries about FAKE AI generated content ahead of the 2024 election - Lots of fake media already - Campbell's Soup is talking up that they have embraced AI --- (We talked about when these off-beat names start to Tech-Wash that would be clue that surge could be over) - The 154-year-old Campbell Soup Co. is embracing Silicon Valley-inspired artificial intelligence (AI) technology to ensure its success in food and beverage innovation continues. The company is doing this by tracking and curating billions of data points to find inspiration and leverage agile design methodology to accelerate the development of new products that resonate with consumers. - “We leverage artificial intelligence to track and analyze these data points and it has become the main driver for the increase in number of products in our pipeline.”

Recession ? Various Eco Reports - The euro zone has slipped into recession and Chinese data has disappointed, warning signs for world markets relieved that the March banking turmoil has not led to a full on credit-crunch and a U.S. debt ceiling crisis has been averted. - Goldman Sachs lowered its odds of a U.S.

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Wham Bam! markets on fire - not stopping her now.

Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast?

New Word - Fed Speak Update

Update on Apple's WWDC .

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - OPEC+ Decides on cuts & No-Cuts - Everyone is running for President - Republicans getting their paperwork in - Russia and Ukraine Updates - Colorcast? - Married to AI - This is a dooozy - New Word - Fed Speak Update

Market Update - Crypto getting knocked - News about Binance - Markets all excite about Apple VR headset - WWDC announcements - Narrowing breath - day by day - Best move in a day since... Employment Report Friday was gooooood

DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help.

Fed Speak Update - New word being used to convey Fed's next move - The street is all excited about .... "SKIP" - Pause is now Skip (Meaning that they not going to raise this meeting, but will reserve the right to raise if conditions require... - 27% Chance that the Fed will raise at next meeting (25 bps) - but that is much different than the day before the employment report

Employment Report - Big gain in total number of people added to the payrolls - BUT - somehow the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.4% - --- This will give the Fed some cover so that they can hold off on a raise next week - The wage growth us still there and even with a tick up in the rate (possibly due to the labor participation rate moving up) there is still a good amount of inflationary pressure.

War Color - Since when is every little bit of war covered? - "Moscow said on Monday it had thwarted a major Ukrainian offensive in the south of Ukraine's Donetsk region but Russia's main mercenary leader said Russian forces had lost ground around Bakhmut further north."

Thoughts on any of the Apple announcements? - WWDC got all abuzz - VR Headset (success where others have failed?)

Binance - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance , the world’s largest crypto exchange, and its co-founder Changpeng Zhao, alleging that both comingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. - The U.S. regulator alleged that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert “their own controls” to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance’s unregulated international exchange. - Seems all these have some bad dudes running the company - -- Bitcoin was down 7% on the news and the USD running (at the same time) ---Other cryptos also falling

OPEC Cutting Production - Not really - Keeping production targets overall - BUT Saudi Arabia is actually doing volumtary cuts - that was enough for markets - push up oil a bit in the overnight sessions. ---- CLOSE to unchanged by midday.

Married to AI - Gone too far? - Rosanna Ramos, 36, from the Bronx, New York, has said she has tied the knot with virtual partner Eren Kartal after using online app Replika AI to create him. - "I could tell him stuff, and he wouldn't be like, 'Oh, no, you can't say stuff like that. Oh no, you're not allowed to feel that way,' you know, and then start arguing with me," she told the Daily Mail. "There was no judgment." - Replika AI markets itself as a way to make an AI best friend and confidante to chat with at any time. - For a one-time $300 fee, users can upgrade to Replika Pro. - This expands the capability of the language model and even gives the ability for the purchaser to change the relationship status to "Romantic Partner". - The company have overcome a number of difficulties to develop the intimacy aspe...

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Closest to The Pin – first time this ever happened !

Something funny is happening with AI

Back to business – some stories from Europe.

Better yet – how about some Fed Limericks?

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Warm Up
- Back from Europe - Ireland and England (Ever been to an English Wedding?)
- - Vaping a big thing in Europe (London)
- A surprise CTP announcement - never before situation
- Back for more - A special set of Fed Limericks
- A lesson in Breath - very narrow right now...

Market Update
- AI running the show
- NVDA - hits the $1 trillion mark for a moment today
- UK inflation - still going
- Case Shiller Housing report is out and ISM Manufacturing, Employment Report Friday
- Apple - Bigger and Bigger
-AI name - Did anyone hold C3.AI? UP BIG!

DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help.

SPECIAL GOODBYE to William O'Neil - Investor Business Daily Founder - pioneer of charting - passed at the age of 90

Housing and Eco
- Case Shiller DOWN 1.1% YoY
- Consumer Confidence up to 102 - still high (down slightly from last month)
- UK - Consumer prices rose by 8.7% in annual terms in April, down from 10.1% in March but still leaving Britain with the joint highest rate of inflation among Group of Seven advanced economies alongside Italy.
----In Western Europe, only Austria had a higher rate.
- Food +20% YoY
( Observance - NO RECESSION IN LONDON - Lots of spending going 0n)

Cathy Woods - Talking Valuations
- The "visionary investor" sold out the fund's position in NVDA in January due to valuation concerns
- - Meanwhile, when has valuations mattered to CW before?

Vaping Crackdown
- The British government said on Tuesday it would close a loophole that lets retailers give free samples of vapes to children in a clampdown on e-cigarettes
- 2023 survey by public health charity Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) of 11-17 year olds in which 2 out of 5 young people said they smoke vapes just to try it, while 1 in 5 said they do it due to peer pressure.
- Have there been any good studies on vaping vs traditional smoking?

China Stocks
- Re-opening craze - not playing out as expected
- Small - retail investors have turned pretty bearish on China's stocks
- China's small investors are also such a large force - accounting for some 60% of turnover, according to China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Yi Huiman, compared with a JPMorgan estimate of less than 25% in the United States - that their lack of interest shows up in market data.
- CSI 300 down about 16% from October high

Turkey
- The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
- Erdogan believes that lower interest rates help to curb inflation
- LIRA down 7% YTD - MULTI DECADE LOWS

LIRA - USD

Debt Ceiling Talks- Agreement in Principle
- McCarthy says it will be transformational for Americans
- WAIT - wasn't this just supposed to be about raising the limit so bills that were already outstanding could be paid???
--- How much fat have they put into this?
- Example: Manchin added a feature to approve all of the remaining permits to complete the Mountain Valley Pipeline that has been stalled for a long time. (pork/earmarks)
- Watch for many 3PM - 3:30PM "surprise" announcements

Disney Chess Match
- Walt Disney Co is scrapping plans to relocate 2,000 jobs to Florida in part because of "changing business conditions" in the state, according to an e-mail to employees seen by Reuters.
- Disney parks chief Josh D'Amaro said "leadership changes" and "changing business conditions" prompted Disney to reconsider its 2021 plan to relocate employees, including its Imagineers who design theme park rides, to a new campus in Lake Nona.

Meanwhile - Fitch
- Fitch put the United States' AAA long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating on negative watch last week, pointing to brinksmanship over the debt ceiling.
- "The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a solution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x date," the rating agency said.

Miracle - Yellen
- June 1st was the date that money was going to run out
- Miraculously, now it is June 5 (just enough time to get vote done?)

Walgreens
- Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. reached a tentative settlement with consumers who received Theranos Inc. blood tests in Arizona and California and claimed that the drugstore giant was “willfully blind” to fraud at the blood-testing startup.
- Wait - they knew? What else have they turned a blind eye toward?
- Lawyers for the company and consumers filed a notice with a federal judge in Arizona that they have reached a settlement-in-principle and expect to submit a request for court approval in about three weeks. Terms of the accord weren’t provided in Monday’s filing.

Internet and Social Media
- The U.S. Supreme Court handed internet and social media companies a pair of victories last week, leaving legal protections for them unscathed and refusing to clear a path for victims of attacks by militant groups to sue these businesses under an anti-terrorism law.
- Google and Twitter both shielded from litigation
- Section 230 provides safeguards for "interactive computer services" by ensuring they cannot be treated for legal purposes as the "publisher or speaker" of information provided by users.

Heinz
- Heinz 57 - 57 has no meaning and completely made up number
- Heinz Remix machine
- To make a customized sauce, consumers will use the touchscreen to select a base of either ketchup, ranch, 57 Sauce or BBQ sauce; add in "enhancers" that include jalapeno, smoky chipotle, buffalo and mango; and set one of three intensity levels.

Alien Update
- Garry Nolan, Ph.D., a professor in the Department of Pathology at Stanford University School of Medicine, has claimed that aliens have not only visited Earth but that they have been here for decades and continue to be here.
- He made these comments during a session titled “The Pentagon, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, and Crashed UFOs”

Monster Update
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that if any other country wanted to join a Russia-Belarus union there could be "nuclear weapons for everyone".

Apple
- Market cap bigger than the whole small-cap market - Russell 2000 (2000 stocks!)
- It may be bigger than the market cap of many smaller countries.

ChatGPT BS
- A pair of New York attorneys reportedly used ChatGPT to generate a legal motion they filed in New York federal court, which has now put them at the risk of sanctions.
- A judge demanded that they provide the full text for the decisions ChatGPT cited when neither the judge nor the opposing counsel could find the cases.
- The reason the cases were missing was straightforward, the judge argued: ChatGPT simply made them up.
- AI Hallucination - AKA - Make Stuff Up (in code?)

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In the land of dollars, they preside,
The Fed's power, economic guide.
Rates they set, markets they steer,
With policies sound, they allay fear.

Critics claim it's a secretive act,
Conspiracy theories they attract.
But in truth, they strive,
To keep markets alive,
With transparency, that's their pact.

And this:

In the realm of dollars, they reign,
The Fed's influence can cause strain.
Their policies, some may debate,
Their decisions, up for critique.

Critics claim their actions opaque,
Transparency seems to be a fake.
Economic guidance, some find skewed,
Leaving doubts about their shrewd.

Yet, in their hands, the power lies,
Controlling markets with highs and sighs.
While they strive to stabilize the tide,
Dissenters question their true guide.

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Markets appear to be climbing a wall of worry. Hoping that everything works out.

Big badminton news – not to be missed.

An update on markets and the weekly stock picks.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up
- NEW CTP for PacWest Bank (PACW) - Wild one..
- US default - create problem fix problem (all politicians know)
- Wall of Worry - climbing
- Badminton news - this is big
- Europe Bound - No Show Next Week
- 1 month T-Bill 5.6%

Market Update
- Stocks impervious - resilient (Not much movement within range)
- Close Call- Banks skidded by another potential weekend bailout - that's good....
- Big Tech leads by a wide margin
- YTD - DJIA up <1%, NASDAQ 100 up > 18%
- Hedge Funds crowding a trade again
- AI rage making the rounds again

DONATIONS ! That was better - but we are going to hit the debt ceiling at DHUnplugged - need your help.

Debt Ceiling
- Now they are talking about July, if June is cleared
- Will slow walk this right up until the last minute
- Game of chicken, but just politics as usual
- Default would be big BIG problem - global system would unravel

Wonky action
- US Treasuries - S/T debt moving around a bit
- Last week, the yield on 1-month Treasury bills surged 23.8 basis points to hit a high of 5.689% and yields on 2-month bills climbed to a high of 5.283% as investors sold off notes that mature about the time the debt limit could be hit.

Musk in the News
- Elon Musk hires ex-NBCUniversal ad chief Linda Yaccarino to be Twitter's CEO
- Already too many ads - obnoxious
- At first, TESLA stock got a bid as the thought was that Elon would get back to work at Tesla
- "I am excited to welcome Linda Yaccarino as the new CEO of Twitter!" Musk tweeted. He said she "will focus primarily on business operations, while I focus on product design & new technology."
- He added, "Looking forward to working with Linda to transform this platform into X, the everything app."

More Musk........ There is always more Musk....

Tucker and Twitter
- Tucker Carlson is starting a new show n Twitter
- How does that work?

One More Musk
- Chief Executive Elon Musk has said that the company can make no new hires unless he personally approves them, including contractors
- According to the report, Musk told executives to send him a list of hiring requests on a weekly basis, while also cautioning them to "think carefully" before submitting such requests.

Crowded Trade
- Hedge Funds releasing their quarterly additions and deletions
- Crowding into mega-cap names - no wonder that the NASDAQ is so green this year
- - Crowded trades make for tough exits

M&A News
- Gold giant Newmont Corp. secured a A$28.8 billion ($19.2 billion) deal to buy Australian rival Newcrest Mining Ltd., consolidating its position as the world’s biggest bullion producer with mines across the Americas, Africa, Australia and Papua New Guinea.
- The transaction, now unanimously approved by Newcrest’s board but pending regulatory approval, is the gold mining sector’s largest deal to date, surpassing Newmont’s purchase of rival Goldcorp Inc.
- In 2019. Newcrest, whose then chief executive officer stepped down abruptly at the end of last year, rejected initial overtures, though it had indicated earlier this month that it planned to recommend an improved takeover offer from its suitor.
- Gold at high end of range is odd timing to get a deal (valuation based "cheapness")

MCD Burns again - 4-year old
- Remember the McDonald's Coffee lawsuits?
- McDonald’s and a franchise holder are at fault after a hot Chicken McNugget from a Happy Meal fell on a little girl’s leg and caused second-degree burns
- Jurors found the franchise holder liable for negligence and failure to warn customers about the risk of hot food, and McDonald’s USA liable for failing to provide instructions for safe handling of the food.

Extradition
- British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch has been extradited to the U.S. to face fraud charges in relation to the sale of his software company Autonomy to Hewlett Packard.
- He face charges of securities and wire fraud in relation to the sale of his company Autonomy to HP for $11 billion.
--- Boosted valuations when selling to HP
---- Didn't HP hire accountants and forensic accountants ???
- The entrepreneur attended an arraignment hearing on Thursday and was ordered to pay a $100 million bail to be released on house arrest, the spokesperson said.

Pope News
- Starting a family in Italy is becoming a "titanic effort" that only the rich can afford, Pope Francis said
- Births in Italy dropped below 400,000 in 2022 for the first time, registering a 14th consecutive annual fall, with the overall population declining by 179,000 to 58.85 million.
- "The free market, without the necessary corrective measures, becomes savage and produces increasingly serious situations and inequalities," he added.
- The pope said pets were replacing children in some households and recounted how a woman at a recent audience had opened her bag and asked for a papal blessing for "her baby", only to reveal that it was a dog.

BIG - Badminton News
- Badminton's world governing body (BWF) has approved an interim ban on the new 'spin serve' at all its international tournaments until further consultation at their annual general meeting later this month, it said on Friday.
- Un-hittable
- The spin serve was similar to the 'Sidek serve' which was banned after the technique -- which involved slicing the shuttle across its feathers -- created an uproar in the early 1980s.
- The amendment to the laws of the sport now states that the server should release the shuttle "without adding spin" as the BWF looks to improve rallies after the spin serve proved to be tough to return or completely unplayable.

Swimsuit News
- WHY???????????

Sports Illustrated Swimsuit 2023

Emirates Airline - NICE!
- Never flew this airline
- Dubai-based airline Emirates logs record profits of $3 billion as passenger numbers surge by 123%
- Emirates Group reported record profit and revenue figures Thursday for the year ending April 2023, with customer numbers booming as the majority of pandemic-induced travel restrictions were lifted.

US Airlines
- Shifting travel patterns by consumers in a post-pandemic world are forcing airlines to guess at what is the "new normal" as they seek to adjust by cutting flights, revamping networks and packing even more passengers into planes.
- They are also fueling worries about the strength of travel spending amid growing economic uncertainty, leading to a 6% drop in airline shares from their highs in January.
- U.S. Transportation Security Administration data shows passenger traffic this year on average has fallen 14% on Tuesdays and Wednesdays compared with Mondays, and then it rebounds on Thursdays.
- - Thoughts?

On The Other Hand
- SoftBank recorded a record loss for its Vision Fund as a recent rally in tech stocks has done little to help another difficult year for its flagship investment unit.
- The Japanese giant's Vision Fund segment posted a 4.3 trillion Japanese yen ($32 billion) loss for its fiscal year ending Mar. 31 versus a 2.55 trillion yen loss in the same period a year before.
- DISSECT: Around a year ago, Son said SoftBank would go into "defense" mode amid the headwinds and become more disciplined with its investments.

NYC Area - Out of Whack
- Rents for primary residences in the New York, Jersey City and Newark, New Jersey, region rose 6.1% in the 12 months through April, the biggest increase since 2005, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Wednesday.
- Consider that commercial vacancies are at a high and how does this square???
----- WELL!!!!! - Commercial RE vacancies, but little layoffs. Therefore, WFH and people getting used to carrying cost of apartment/office.

Best Buy ? WHAT?
- Best Buy said that it will double down on its membership program as consumers buy fewer discretionary items.
- Best Buy is looking for ways to make money and drive customer loyalty as it deals with a drop in demand.
- Starting June 27, the program will have three tiers, including a lower-priced option that offers perks like exclusive discounts and access to hot products, the consumer electronics retailer said. The program will also have a new name: My Best Buy memberships.
- The new $44.99 per year subscription includes members-only prices, free two-day shipping with no minimum purchase and an extended return policy.

EuroZone - Microsoft/Activision
- Microsoft’s faltering $69 billion bid to buy the video game company Activision Blizzard received a glimmer of hope on Monday when European Union regulators approved what would be the largest consumer tech deal in two decades.
- E.U. officials said they would allow the deal after Microsoft, the maker of the Xbox console, made concessions to ensure that rival companies of new online gaming services would have continued access to titles developed by Activision, such as the hugely popular Call of Duty.
- After negotiating the concessions with Microsoft, European Union officials said they concluded that the deal could go through, particularly because the cloud gaming market was still so small.
- UK still blocking?

AI NEWS
- Google re-introduced its AI tools and provided a video walk-through - taken well by investors
- Several companies are working with Google to see how AI can benefit their firms. The main issue here is that there are looking for coast cutting and ways to drive business (Isn't everyone?)
- All of a sudden everyone likes GOOG again

More AI
- Amazon.com Inc. plans to bring ChatGPT-style product search to its web store, rivaling efforts by Microsoft Corp. and Google to weave generative artificial intelligence into their search engines.
- Bloomberg BN making the assertion as they look through job positing for Amazon.
--- So they are way off from integrating

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Announcing a new Closest to the Pin this week.

Yellen starting to freak out.

Market not ready for an inflation data surprise.

Sentiment slipping….

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Warm Up
- ANNOUNCING - NEW CTP for PacWest
- Some prices from F1 food stops - is this right?
- Gamma squeeze Friday?
- Small biz sentiment - taking a leg down
- Derby Day - bourbon and ham sandwiches

Market Update
- Oil gets a reprieve - dropped as low at $63
- Credit/loans tightening and we are just starting
- Lending conditions tighten overall
- Earnings - 79% companies beating estimates (good color with Silverblatt this week)

DONATIONS?

Debt Ceiling Fight
- Odds?
- Bug dilemma
- Republicans pushing for spending cuts

Inflation
- NY Fed- estimates 3-year rise to 2.9% from 2.8%
- NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations measure drops to 4.4% from 4.7% last month

Employment Report
- Higher than expected gains in employment
- BUT - Last month revised much lower - so not much difference
- Unemployment Rate drops to 3.4%
- April Nonfarm Private Payrolls 230K vs. 160K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 123K from 189K
- April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4
- April Average Workweek 34.4 vs. 34.5 Briefing.com consensus; prior 34.4
- BIG ONE FOR INFLATION OUTLOOK - April Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.5% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%

Employment Situation Trend- Slowing economy - employment holding up well - How does that square?

Employment Chart

Harbinger- Bank Credit is tightening (not much yet, but noticeable 1.5% drop)
- 1.9% decline in bank credit in 1975.
- 2.2% drop in bank credit in 2002.
- 6.9% dip in bank credit between 2008 and 2010.

Credit Conditions

Monday - Senior Loan Officer Report
- Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans other than government-sponsored enterprise (GSE)-eligible and government residential mortgages, which remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand weakened for all RRE loan categories. In addition, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards.
- Market may see this (perversely) as good news as Fed could think this is bad and not raise... (The Upside Down)

Oil Prices - Headlines
- Thursday: Oil Prices Fall Due to Recession Fears
- Friday: Oil Steadies - Traders Look To Future
- Monday: Oil Higher: Recession Fears Abate
- -3 days and story changes?
--- Oil prices rose on Monday as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding. Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 0624 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel.

COVID EMERGENCY - OVER
- COVID-19 is no longer a global health emergency, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus declared Friday.
- COUNTS according to WHO - 765 million cases and 7 million deaths
- Meanwhile - Rochelle Walensky will step down as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the end of June, an unexpected departure after more than two years leading the agency through an oft-criticized response to the biggest public health crisis in a century.

Icahn - Short Seller Report
- Hindenburg cost Carl > $10 Billion
- IEP Stock on the ropes due to questionable marks and leverage
- Company comes out with "surprise" dividend to try to sway short-selling
----- Short sellers have to pay the dividend

Lyft vs Uber
- Stocks moving in opposite directions
- Uber stock up nicely on earnings, with less of a loss than expected
- Lyft drops 20% on plans to cut prices and not a great outlook by the company

Prices OUT OF CONTROL

F1 Food

Where the latest with Debt Ceiling?
- More warnings over the weekend from Yellen
- Talks supposedly happening with both sides are the table
- Talk of invoking 14th amendment by Biden
- Section Four of 14th Amendment, adopted after the 1861-1865 Civil War, states that the "validity of the public debt of the United States ... shall not be questioned."
- Therefore, could be argued that US can not default, automating a debt ceiling increase through constitution
- THIN ARGUMENT

More
- Yellen been calling on companies to warn about debt ceiling
--- No info on what companies she is calling, but what does this mean - is she freaked out?

Hollywood - On Strike
- Does we care?

Here we go again
- Renters in the U.K. will be able to borrow up to 100% of the value of a property without a guarantor or deposit in a new mortgage plan introduced by Skipton Building Society.
- A building society is a British financial institution that provides banking services for, and is owned by, its members. The new mortgage product, aimed at first-time buyers who are currently renting, has a fixed rate of 5.49% for five years, over a maximum term of 35 years.

Do It Yourself
- Amazon is offering customers $10 to collect their own packages rather than have them delivered, in an attempt to cut operational delivery costs.
- This week, a number of Amazon Prime subscribers were emailed with an offer to receive $10 if they picked up an order of over $25.
- Save money for the company and it would help train consumers to make returns directly to the company themselves rather than scheduling pick-ups.

AI News
- Watson has given way to WatsonX, and IBM is trying to ride the latest boom in AI. IBM is billing it as a development studio for companies to “train, tune and deploy” machine-learning models. The platform includes a feature for AI-generated code, an AI governance toolkit, and a library of thousands of large-scale AI models, trained on language, geospatial data, IT events and code, according to a release.
- IBM is partnering with HuggingFace, the buzzy AI startup and open source platform that reached a $2 billion valuation last year.
---- Spotify - The music streaming platform has removed tens of thousands of AI-generated songs from the platform created on the AI music-making platform Boomy.

Same Crap - Another Day
- Novavax Inc said on Tuesday that a mid-stage study of three of its vaccines, including a combination shot targeting COVID-19 and influenza, showed strong immune responses and were found to be safe.
- Share prices of Novavax soared after the biotech company unveiled promising new Covid and flu vaccine data and a broad cost-cutting push that includes reducing 25% of its workforce.
- BUT - The announcements are a sign of hope for investors after last quarter when Novavax raised doubts about its ability to stay in business.

AirBNB
- Is this the last of it and a problem for housing?
- EPS: 18 cents vs. 9 cents expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
- Revenue: $1.82 billion vs. $1.79 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
- Much of this quarter was due to pent up demand from - let me out and party - post COVID
- Does the world need all this transient rooms (hotels, Vacation Rentals, etc?)
- How much did AirBNB push up housing prices over the past few years??
--- I have been hearing crazy prices for houses as "they bought it for AirBnB"

Berkshire Meeting
- 5 Hours of questions
- Munger's suits are terrible - entirely too big...
- Dollar will remain reserve currency
- Apple best company ever
- Banks are fine
- Everything is fine
- Oh and - predicting a slowdown in earnings outward

Wheels Up - Are Down
- Private jet company Wheels Up announced Tuesday that its founder and CEO, Kenny Dichter, is stepping down from his post immediately.
- The company is facing mounting losses and the potential for bankruptcy.

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Another weekend, another bank failure.

79% beat rate for earnings season – what does that mean?

Sinkhole alert! Comparing and contrasting past occurrences.

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Warm Up
- Weekend bank failure and rescue
- EGG BOOK?
- NEAR MISS - Tornado Update
- Sinkhole alert!
- Fed releases the blame report for SVB
- BIG story on education and AI

Market Update
- Earnings Season - Statistically looking good
- Apple on tap this week
- Wednesday - Fed rate decision
- Friday - Employment Report
-Debt limit on investor's minds

JCD's take on Tucker Carlson's Firing...

Sinkhole Alert - What Does it Look Like?

Sinkhole

Recession Fears - Looks like this:
- Oil taking a leg down
- Gold on fire
- Stocks Down
-Bonds up

First Republic
- 2nd largest bank failure ever - seized by California regulators
- JP Morgan acquires
- "Our government invited us and others to step up, and we did," JPMorgan CEO Dimon said in a press release.
- "This acquisition modestly benefits our company overall, it is accretive to shareholders, it helps further advance our wealth strategy, and it is complementary to our existing franchise."
- In addition to most of First Republic's deposits, JPMorgan will pick up about $173 billion in loans and about $30 million of securities. It said it won't assume First Republic's corporate debt or preferred stock.
- JPM up 2.5%
- We Should BECOME A BANK!

KRE Bank Index
- Down 33% YTD
-Down 6% today - as WAL and PACW crash
- No Alice- The Banking Crisis is NOT over
- Why all these WESTERN banks?

Debt Limit
- Failing to increase the debt limit would have catastrophic economic consequences. It would cause the government to default on its legal obligations
- Congress has always acted when called upon to raise the debt limit. Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit – 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Congressional leaders in both parties have recognized that this is necessary.
- Yellen pulled forward date that

Bye Bye Nurses
- Almost a third of the nurses in the United States are considering leaving their profession after the COVID-19 pandemic left them overwhelmed and fatigued, according to a survey.
- The survey of over 18,000 nurses, conducted by AMN Healthcare Services Inc in January, showed on Monday that 30% of the participants are looking to quit their career, up 7 percentage points over 2021, when the pandemic-triggered wave of resignations began.
- The survey also showed that 36% of the nurses plan to continue working in the sector but may change workplaces.

Pay Half
- Pfizer Inc and BioNTech's new proposal to the European Union, amid a glut of COVID-19 shots, includes a provision for member states to pay half price, or about 10 euros ($11), for each of about 70 million cancelled doses, the Financial Times reported.
- In January, Reuters reported talks between the EU and the two drugmakers aimed at reducing up to 500 million COVID-19 vaccine doses Brussels has committed to buy this year in return for a higher price.

China Rebound?
- China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in April, official data showed on Sunday, raising pressure on policymakers seeking to boost an economy struggling for a post-COVID lift-off amid subdued global demand and persistent property weakness.
- The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) declined to 49.2 from 51.9 in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, below the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis.
- FWIW - US manufacturing is also in the contraction zone

ISM APRIL

Earnings Update
- 74% of $SPX companies have beaten revenue estimates to date for Q1, which is above the 5-year average of 69% and above the 10-year average of 63%

Earnings Results (Rev)

Amazon Earnings
- The growth of Amazon Web Services, long a major source of profit, slowed to 15.8% in the first quarter, while recession-wary businesses have slowed their spending.
- Net profit stood at $3.17 billion in the quarter ended March 31, compared with a loss of $3.84 billion, a year earlier.
- The world's biggest online retailer reported better-than-expected net sales of $127.36 billion in the first three months of the year and forecast sales between $127 billion and $133 billion in the second quarter. Analysts had expected sales of $129.83 billion in the quarter-ending June 30.

Fed Reserve Report
- The Federal Reserve Board on Friday announced the results from the review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank
- The review finds four key takeaways on the causes of the bank's failure:

Silicon Valley Bank's board of directors and management failed to manage their risks;
Federal Reserve supervisors did not fully appreciate the extent of the vulnerabilities as Silicon Valley Bank grew in size and complexity;
When supervisors did identify vulnerabilities, they did not take sufficient steps to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank fixed those problems quickly enough; and
The Board's tailoring approach in response to the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act and a shift in the stance of supervisory policy impeded effective supervision by reducing standards, increasing complexity, and promoting a less assertive supervisory approach.
"Following Silicon Valley Bank's failure, we must strengthen the Federal Reserve's supervision and regulation based on what we have learned," said Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. "This review represents a first step in that process—a self-assessment that takes an unflinching look at the conditions that led to the bank's failure, including the role of Federal Reserve supervision and regulation."
WAIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! One more to blame....
------The Federal Reserve on Friday blamed the deregulatory zeal that occurred during the Trump era for contributing to the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, appearing to take a clear stand on an acrimonious policy divide in Washington.

Sinkhole ALERT
- Interesting seeing this again
- BIG spread divergence with S&P 500 Mark Cap and S&P 500 Equal Weight
- 600BPS YTD favoring Market cap weighted

Intel Earnings
- Loss per share: Loss of $0.04 per share, adjusted, versus a loss of 15 cents per share expected
- Revenue: $11.7 billion, adjusted, versus $11.04 billion expected
- Worse loss in history|
- Intel recorded a net loss of $2.8 billion, compared with a profit of $8.1 billion last year.
- GAAP revenue decreased to $11.7 billion from $18.4 billion. It's the fifth consecutive quarter of falling sales for the semiconductor giant and the second consecutive quarter of losses.
- Stock was up on the news (better than feared)

AI
- IBM announces that it is going to halt hirings for jobs that can be replaced with AI
- As the aviation sector starts to embrace artificial intelligence, planes flying with just one pilot are a possibility
--- Now AI can fly a plane? We already have autopilot...
- Chegg (-46% on this news) says that ChatGPT is killing its business
--- Chegg is leader is supping academic materials to students. textbooks, study programs.
------ What does this tell us?
- Amazon planning to put its own ChatGPT technology into Alexa, according to Business Insider

Blocked
- Britain will block Microsoft's $69 billion acquisition of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard over its concerns it would hinder competition in cloud gaming, dealing an unexpected blow to the biggest-ever deal in gaming.
- How long or how much $$ until the deal can be passed.

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Markets are moving back and forth just waiting for some big news.

Talk of a US default is making the rounds.

Tech has a big day – helping to push markets up from their recent despair.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- All of a sudden - recession fears
- US Default whispers
- Republicans put forth budget with increase and expense slashing
- India - taking over the population race
- Resiliency everywhere ...

Market Update
- Banks - Still on shaky ground
- Central Banks blamed for market rally
- "This year’s rally in risk assets is more to do with a $1 trillion central bank liquidity injection than any improvement in the economic outlook, according to Citigroup Inc.. "
- "That massive tailwind — enough to lop 50 basis points off the investment-grade risk premium — may soon become a huge drag as policymakers get back to quashing inflation, having extinguished the banking-sector fire. "
- Do we believe that the Fed is done?

Earnings

Coca-Cola - Average price of 192 ounces of Coca-Cola's soda (12 pack of 16oz bottle) in the U.S. rose to $9.30 in 2022 from $8.03 in 2021, according to NielsenIQ's data. It stood at $10.55 so far in 2023. (31% increase in 2 years)
- Adjusted earnings came in at 68 cents per share, compared with estimates of 64 cents.
- The company's first-quarter revenue rose about 5% to $10.98 billion, beating estimates of $10.80 billion

IBM Earnings
- Bellweather anymore?
- IBM Corp missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue
- WHY? Hurt by shrinking corporate spending on IT services and a strong dollar.
- IBM cut its full-year consulting revenue growth forecast to 6%-8% from earlier expectations of high single-digit percentage growth.
- "We are seeing softness in certain components of our discretionary based offerings in consulting," Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters about the U.S. market.

Whirlpool
- Didn't everyone think that margins would compress and higher rates will kill real estate?
- Whirlpool prelim Q1 $2.66 vs $2.17 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.65 bln vs $4.50 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
- Whirlpool sees FY23 $16.00-18.00 vs $15.97 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $19.4 bln vs $19.02 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Tech
- Microsoft beats by $0.22, beats on revs; Azure +31% constant currency growth (Shares up 6% A/H)
---- Revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion in the quarter ended March
- Windows division reporting revenue of $13.3 billion versus analyst estimates of $12.19 billion
- Alphabet beats by $0.10, beats on revs, Google Advertising revenue essentially flat yr/yr; On April 19, Board of Directors authorized repurchase up to additional $70 bln of Class A and Class C shares PLUS big 70b buyback announcement (Shares slight move A/H)
------- Ad sales saw a drop again - although not as much as last quarter

Banks
- The bank crisis is not totally over yet
- Earnings and news from First Republic Bank - massive loss of deposits and company looking to some drastic ways to save itself (stock don 49% today)
- Pacific West bank - better than expected results, shares up 13% A/H

Debt Ceiling - Limits
- Republican led plan
- McCarthy floated a plan last week that would pair $4.5 trillion in spending cuts with a $1.5 trillion increase in the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit.
- All talking about this being political divided and will not pass
- The HOPE is that it will get sides talking

Change of US Default - debt ceiling etc
- Current pricing of credit default swaps soar
- BUT, only 2% implied odds of a default
- Seen this movie before.......
- This time different?
- As of April 19, investors were willing to pay $9,600 a year to insure $1 million in U.S. Treasury debt, up from $1,400 at the start of the year. That is even more than during major budget fights in 2011 and 2013 when, like now, Republicans in Congress were refusing to raise the statutory ceiling on how much Treasury could borrow unless a Democratic president agreed to reduce spending.

CDS US Chart

USD - Bets are more downside
- Some 87% of 331 survey respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates to 3% or below
- Discussion that the markets are under-pricing the Fed's oncoming easing cycle
- Good for commodities, crypto, metals, multinationals

Credit Suisse
- Credit Suisse said on Monday that 61 billion Swiss francs ($68 billion) in assets left the bank in the first quarter and that outflows were continuing, underscoring the challenge faced by UBS Group AG in rescuing its rival.
- It also said customer deposits declined by 67 billion francs in the quarter and that there had been significant non-renewals of maturing time deposits.
- 167 years old bank.....

Bed Bath and Bankrupt
- Bed Bath & Beyond Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday after the home goods retailer failed to secure funds to stay afloat.
- The Union, New Jersey-based home goods retailer filed for bankruptcy in a District of New Jersey court, listing both its estimated assets and liabilities in the range of $1 billion and $10 billion, according to a court filing.
- Retail locations will be closing (360 locations for BB&B and 120 for Buy Buy Baby)
- Blame for establishment failure was the move to sell more store-branded products.

Tesla - More Jabber
- Tesla Inc boss Elon Musk on Wednesday doubled down on the price war he started at the end of last year, saying the electric vehicle (EV) maker would prioritize sales growth ahead of profit in a weak economy.
- "It's better to shift a large number of cars at lower margin and harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy," Musk told analysts on a conference call.
- The company reported total gross margin of 19.3%, short of market expectations of 22.4%, according to 14 analysts polled by Refinitiv.
- Tesla also did not report its automotive gross margin, a figure closely watched by investors, with Musk saying the weak economy making it hard to provide margin outlook.

Same Day (Zero Day Options)
- Day Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options
- Researchers warn about growing risk should 0DTE broaden out

TECH
- SoftBank-owned Arm Ltd. will work with manufacturing partners to develop its own semiconductor, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing unidentified people briefed on the move.
- What is this about?
- ARM competing with it's customers?

More Tech
- Alphabet CEO’s Pay Soars to $226 Million on Huge Stock Award
- Meanwhile - cancelling buildouts and cutting expenses and jobs. Stock in the dumper...

Champagne - Only in France
- Miller High Life - the Champagne of Beers?
- At the request of the trade body defending the interests of houses and growers of the northeastern French sparkling wine, Belgian customs crushed more than 2,000 cans of Miller High Life advertised as such.
- The Comité Champagne asked for the destruction of a shipment of 2,352 cans on the grounds that the century-old motto used by the American brewery infringes the protected designation of origin "Champagne."
- Started with the slogan in 1969

India - Overtaking China
- India is on its way to become the world’s most populous country, overtaking China with almost 3 million more people in the middle of this year
- The demographic data from the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report, 2023” estimates India’s population at 1,428.6 million or 1.4286 billion against 1.4257 billion for China.
- The United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million

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A flood of earnings and a flood in SOFLA

Lunch with the Feds this week. Last week’s Fed minutes tell an interesting story.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Earnings Are Out
- Flooding in SOFLA - we have pictures
- Lunch with the Feds
- Fed minutes tell an interesting story
- Re-Announcing CTP for Goldman Sachs (glitch last week)

Market Update
- Going Sideways
- Banks post decent results - but doesn't include post-crisis (bank run)
- Tesla, Netflix earnings and and next week gets busy
- Yellen making some noise - nosing in wrong business
- Rates - Moving wrong direction (remains massively inverted)

Yields
- Yields on 3-month T-Bills have reached new post-2007 highs of 5.06%+

3M Yield Chart

Fed Minutes
- Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
- Fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year, according to Federal Reserve documents released Wednesday.
- Though Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said the banking sector "is sound and resilient," staff economists said the economy will take a hit.
- "Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years," the meeting summary stated.

Apple Follow Up
- We discussed potential store closures???
- Apple opens first retail store in India
- Cook was there in Mubai this week to take selfies and smile

China
- GOLD AND JEWELS
- Jewellery and precious metals consumption in China soared 37.4% in March from a year earlier underpinning a 13.6% jump for the quarter and topping the list of items that stoked a surge in first-quarter retail sales, official data showed on Tuesday.
- "Economic fundamentals, risk aversion and the recovery of domestic consumption all drive the investment demand for jewellery and precious metals," said Pang Xichun, research director at Nanjing RiskHunt Investment Management Co.- China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, with retail sales rising 10.6%, beating forecasts for a 7.4% increase by a large margin.

Bank Earnings
- Generally okay - withing tolerance range
- None seems to include post Bank run (Tighter standards)
- Not much in guidance that is useful

Bank Of America
- Earnings: 94 cents per share versus 82 cents per share expected
- Revenue: $26.39 billion versus $25.13 billion expected
- Bank of America said its net interest income jumped 25% to $14.4 billion during the quarter, driven by benefits from rising rates and loan growth.
- Stock up marginally

Goldman Sachs
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $8.79 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.73 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $8.06; revenues fell 5.5% year/year to $12.22 bln vs the $12.66 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
- Provision for credit losses was a net benefit of $171 million for the first quarter of 2023, compared with net provisions of $561 million for the first quarter of 2022 and $972 million for the fourth quarter of 2022.
- Global Banking & Markets generated quarterly net revenues of $8.44 billion, driven by strong performances in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) and Equities, including record quarterly net revenues in Equities financing.
- Net revenues were $12.22 billion for the first quarter of 2023, 5% lower than the first quarter of 2022 and 15% higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. The decrease compared with the first quarter of 2022 reflected lower net revenues in Global Banking & Markets, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in Asset & Wealth Management and Platform Solutions.

Schwab
- Charles Schwab beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.93 per share, $0.03 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.90; revenues rose 9.5% year/year to $5.12 bln vs the $5.13 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
- Commentary from Co: "Maintaining the capital and liquidity required to support Schwab's long-term growth remains our primary balance sheet objective. We increased our quarterly common dividend by 14% to $.25 per share and returned capital via common and preferred stock repurchases. Even with the accelerated capital return during the first two months of the quarter, our Tier 1 Leverage Ratio finished at 7.1%.
- In light of recent events within the U.S. banking sector, and the resulting regulatory uncertainty, we have decided to pause our active buyback program. That being said, opportunistic capital return is still an important component of our ‘through the cycle' financial formula.
- Ultimately, we believe the current headwinds will prove transitory and we remain well positioned to deliver long-term value to our stockholders."
- Company was also very adamant about its low duration bond holdings - they did not buy out at the long end during this cycle
- Why is company still in the doghouse?

Meanwhile...
- Estimates are for a drop (withdrawal) of deposits approaching $520 billion for banks in the past year
- $60 billion + in the 1st quarter of 2023
- Where did the money go?
- Brokerages, Treasuries

Netflix
- Netflix sees Q2 $2.84 vs $3.08 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $8.24 bln vs $8.47 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
- Netflix Q1 operating margin came in at 21.0% vs 19.9% prior guidance; guides to Q2 operating margin of 19.0%
- Netflix global streaming paid net adds in Q1 were +1.75 mln

Apple Bringing The Heat
- Apple on Monday launched its Apple Card savings account with a 4.15% annual percentage yield.
- It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.
- This is in cooperation with Goldman
- What does this do to the bank accounts that are still paying little or no interest?
--- FYI - The national average APY on savings accounts is just 0.35%, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,

J& J Earnings
- Earnings per share: $2.68 adjusted, vs. $2.50 expected
- Revenue: $24.75 billion, vs. $23.67 billion expected
- J&J is now forecasting 2023 sales of $97.9 billion to $98.9 billion, about $1 billion higher than the guidance provided in January. The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $10.60 to $10.70 per share, from a previous forecast of $10.45 to $10.65.

Best Buy
- This week, many store workers that specialize in selling more complex products such as computers and smartphones, dubbed “consultants” inside the company, were told their jobs would be eliminated, according to people familiar with the situation.
- Employees in ‘consultant’ roles told they can reapply for other internal jobs or receive severance
- So now little technical help available at the store....
- Why shop there anyway? All online... Curation?

Lulu
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. is exploring a sale of Mirror, the fitness-equipment maker it acquired for $500 million in 2020, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
- Meanwhile from March earnings: The Co. beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus. Additionally, lululemon athletica upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at KGI Securities. Lastly, lululemon athletica placed on Analyst Focus List at JP Morgan.
- is something going on that they need to get rid of Mirror? OR just Mirror is bleeding them?

This Week - Luncheon with Richard Clarida (Former Vice Chair)
- Talking in circles - some interesting insight
- AH question was a bout the "wordsmithing" that goes on at the FED.
--- Asked if there is a PR team that does some kind of A/B testing on the words that will be used to try to sway the public. Asked about "transitory", "anchored", "sound and resilient", and now DEFLATION.
- He confirmed and agreed that there is a good amount of wordsmithing that goes on. Also provided a discussion of the history of the use of the word deflation. (Volker) Didn't really answer much else.
- - Did make the point very clearly that just listen to Fed Chair Powell and what he says to understand what the Fed is going to do.

Andrew and Clarida

Yellen Making Some Noise
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
- Since when does the Treasuty Secratary talk about Fed policy
- Everyone lost their minds when Trump was pushing Fed/commenting

Flood Pictures

Street 1

Street 2

Water Level

Ask Us Anything - Selection
1. Someone mentioned on another podcast that if "they" goes with a CBDC to replace the U.S. dollar, all mortgage contracts would be null and void - is there any validity to that?
2. Quad, Northern VA, Smart or dumb- My company offers ESPP at %15 stock discount twice a year. Max contribution is %15 gross from each check. I go tax exempt all year and contribute max to the ESPP, then cash that out to pay my taxes (about net 10% guarantee gain). Your thoughts?
3. how do you feel about yellens recent comments on raising the national debt to 50 Trillion
4. If you could tell your 15 yr old self 1 thing about finance, what would it be.

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Banks need some inflows – giving away prizes for deposits.

Earnings season is about to begin – looking for a significant downside for growth.

Yields ticking lower as recession fears bump inflation worries.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Easter and holiday season coming to an end...
- A NEW Closest to The Pin Announcement
- Bond yields way down - what does that mean?
- Free Toasters Making a comeback
- Gold, metals, alts, COINS!

Market Update
- Falling Yields - may be a bit much
- Employment report - mixed bag
- Earnings season starts this week - Big Banks
- Apple news - PC Demand

DONATIONS - April Donations - Bring May Flowers

Earnings Season Prep
- Going to be some bad guidance... If actions by companies any guide
- Example - Google letter about 2008 and getting in advance so they can say - we are ahead of this...
- Banks - what good can they say? Or maybe at worst levels?
- S&P 500 Estimates - looking for -7% YoY growth for earnings

How Bad? Tech bad...
- Apple Mac shipments fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023, compared with the same time the prior year, market intelligence provider IDC said.
--- Apple’s worldwide PC market share dropped between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, from 8.6% to 7.2%, according to IDC data.
- All five of the largest computer makers — Apple, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo — saw double-digit drops in first-quarter shipments, reflecting weaker demand and persistent inventory woes. But Apple’s decline was the biggest of the bunch.
- Taiwan Semi - slowing production as demand is not there

Employment Report
- March nonfarm payrolls 236K vs consensus 239K; prior revised to 326K from 311K
- March unemployment rate 3.5% vs consensus 3.6%; prior 3.6%
- March avg. hourly earnings 0.3% vs.consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%
- March avg. workweek 34.4 hours vs consensus 34.5; prior 34.5
- 25% of the employment gains were in services (restaurants, bars and hotels)

Home Price Outlook
- Moody's expects 98% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year.
- According to Zillow, tight supply will make it hard for home prices to fall much heading forward.
- Through the first two months of 2023, the biggest home price drops were found in markets like Austin (down 2.5% since December), Boise (down another 2.4%), Las Vegas (down another 2.4%), Phoenix (down another 2.2%), and San Jose (down another 2.1%).
- Western US home values seem the most detached from fundamentals according to reports.

Bond Yields
- Dropped due to banking crisis
- Even with FED pressing on - still lower (3.4% on 10-year)|
- Heavy Inversion
- Recession now the play versus inflation worries

Sky Is Falling
- Starlink seems to have a problem
- Satellites are falling out of orbit and coming back dosn to earth (something Elon will never do)
- Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell tracks SpaceX's satellite activity, and said that at present "at least 14" of the company's devices were "on their way down".
- Reports show that the satellite in question likely burned up as it attempted to reenter the Earth's atmosphere, meaning traces of it will be incredibly hard to find.

AS the Sky is Falling ...
- Investors snapping up alternatives
- Gold >$2,000
- Silver in rally mode
- Bitcoin > $30,000 (but 1 bitcoin is still 1 bitcoin
- Ether > $1,900

Meanwhile - Fed is full CYA mode
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that financial system troubles that drove the central bank to provide large amounts of credit to banks is not collateral damage from the Fed’s aggressive effort to lower inflation.
- Williams said he viewed the trouble at the two banks as unique in nature and unlikely to reflect broader trends in the financial system.
- That said, Fed officials have said that banking sector stress will likely weigh on the economy, as financial firms pull back on lending. That in turn could result in lower activity levels while also helping to further cool price pressures.

Favorite Story - Apple Robbery
- The Alderwood Mall Apple Store was closed when the burglary took place.
- The entire operation was clean and employees were unaware of it until the next morning. The robbers did not enter the store through the front but created an entry from an adjoining bathroom wall of an espresso machine outlet. The entry through the espresso store was conducted through the front door as thieves pried open the door.
- Once the burglars gained entry into the espresso store, they cut through the wall of the bathroom that lead straight to the Apple Store.
- According to the news outlet. the burglars cut a 24 by 18 hole into the wall that opened in the back room of the Apple Store. The entire operation was seamless as the robbers took almost 436 iPhone models and an unknown number of Apple Watch and iPads. Altogether, almost $500,000 worth of Apple products were stolen from the Apple Store.

Bathroom Heist

Peeping Tesla
- A California Tesla owner sued the electric carmaker in a prospective class action lawsuit accusing it of violating the privacy of customers.
- The lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California came after Reuters reported on Thursday that groups of Tesla employees privately shared via an internal messaging system sometimes highly invasive videos and images recorded by customers’ car cameras between 2019 and 2022.
- What are people doing in their cars ????
- Reuters reported that some Tesla employees could see customers "doing laundry and really intimate things. We could see their kids," citing a former employee. (That's it?)

More Tesla
- Because there is ALWAYS MORE TESLA
- Tesla cut process again.
- The cuts ranged from 1.9% on the performance version of the Model 3 to 5.6% on the basic version of the Model S.
- The move follows repeated comments in recent months by Chief Executive Elon Musk that Tesla would focus on lowering prices to spur demand and had seen success in sparking orders with global discounts introduced in January.
- SOOOOO, demand continues to wane?

NYC - WTF?
- NYC restaurants impose 90-minute time limits on diners - even if they want to stay and order more....
- Started during COVID - now stretching due to shrinking profit margins
- What is wrong with the ? If anything?

Used Car - Going Up Again (h/t Thomas Thornton)

Used Car Index

Toasters Coming Back?
- U.S. banks are trying to woo depositors by offering signing bonuses to open new accounts or deposit money on a regular basis.
- Capital One Financial Corp is advertising a $100 bonus for opening a new savings account and keeping more than $10,000 in it for 90 days.
- Citizens Financial Group is offering a $25 bonus for customers who put in $100 a month for three months and maintaining a minimum balance

Tupperware
- Issues a "going concern" notice
- Founded in 1942!
- Tupperware shares fell nearly 50% Monday following a bleak warning that its future is looking murky.
- In a regulatory filing late Friday, the container maker said there's "substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern," and that it's working with financial advisers to find financing to stay afloat.
- The New York Stock Exchange also warned that Tupperware's stock is in danger of being de-listed for not filing a required annual report.
- So, must be a buy according to Reddit rules... tight? (TUP)

Dalai Lama
- What was he thinking?
- "A video clip has been circulating that shows a recent meeting when a young boy asked his Holiness the Dalai Lama if he could give him a hug," said a statement on the exiled leader's Twitter account, which has 19 million followers.
- Then asks the boy if he would suck his tongue.

PSA
- The FBI recently warned consumers against using free public charging stations, saying crooks have managed to hijack public chargers that can infect devices with malware, or software that can give hackers access to your phone, tablet or computer.
- "Avoid using free charging stations in airports, hotels or shopping centers," a tweet from the FBI's Denver field office said. "Bad actors have figured out ways to use public USB ports to introduce malware and monitoring software onto devices. Carry your own charger and USB cord and use an electrical outlet instead."

American IQs
- Americans’ IQ scores are trending in a downward direction. In fact, they’ve been falling for over a decade.
- According to a press release, in studying intelligence testing data from 2006 to 2018, Northwestern University researchers noticed that test scores in three out of four “cognitive domains” were going down. This is the first time we’ve seen a consistent negative slope for these testing categories, providing tangible evidence of what is known as the “Reverse Flynn Effect.”

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The end is near – AI taking over they say…

OPEC+ Suprise cuts – not the best tine for that move.

Some bankers may be in hot water after their recent poor judgement.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- 1st Quarter scores gains
- Gold and Silver breaking out
- Never let a good crisis go to waste?
- More layoffs... Big names making news
- OPEC Surprise !

Market Update
- Tech BIG winner 1Q 2023
- Yields down -- even though inflation still high
- Reflex trades - all tied to rates
- More layoffs coming
- AI names making a run - with all chatter about AI doomsday
----- FRIDAY MARKETS CLOSED

Twitter Logo Update = Dodgecoin Ramp

Happy Passover and Happy Easter (The Usual Holiday Price Drops for Political Purposes)
- Bought 5 dozen eggs from Walmart yesterday for $12.75
- Matzah prices coming down as well

AI Doomsday !
- They are coming for your job
-- The letter, issued by the non-profit Future of Life Institute and signed by more than 1,000 people including Musk, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque, called for a pause on advanced AI development until shared safety protocols for such designs were developed, implemented and audited by independent experts.
- Elon Musk and a group of artificial intelligence experts and industry executives are calling for a six-month pause in training of systems more powerful than GPT-4, they said in an open letter, citing potential risks to society and humanity.
- The letter also detailed potential risks to society and civilization by human-competitive AI systems in the form of economic and political disruptions, and called on developers to work with policymakers on governance and regulatory authorities.
---AI and Your JOB -
-- Goldman Sachs: The boost to global labor productivity could also be economically significant, and
nee estimate that AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%. (Savings from less workers... less workers = less $ to spend)
- Goldman Sachs Estimates That 300 Million Jobs Will Be Affected By AI In The Future

QUESTION: Isn't this the same concerns we had in 2000?

AI Banned
- Italy has become the first country in the West to ban ChatGPT, the popular artificial intelligence chatbot from U.S. startup OpenAI.
- Last week, the Italian Data Protection Watchdog ordered OpenAI to temporarily cease processing Italian users' data amid a probe into a suspected breach of Europe's strict privacy regulations.
- How can they do this? Must be workarounds

More Tech
- Google to cut down on employee laptops, services and staplers for 'multi-year' savings
- Google said it's cutting back on fitness classes, staplers, tape, and the frequency of laptop replacements for employees.
- “We've been here before," Porat's email stated. "Back in 2008, our expenses were growing faster than our revenue. We improved machine utilization, narrowed our real estate investments, tightened our belt on T&E budgets, cafes, micro kitchens and mobile phone usage, and removed the hybrid vehicle subsidiary.”
- “Just as we did in 2008, we’ll be looking at data to identify other areas of spending that is as effective as they should be, or that don’t scale to our size.” (2008 references???)

McDonalds ?
- MCDONALD'S has shut down its offices temporarily as the company reportedly prepares for mass staff layoffs.
- Corporate employees were instructed to cancel meetings at its headquarters.
- The company said in the memo that the layoffs are intended to make McDonald’s more efficient.
- “We have a clear opportunity ahead of us to get faster and more effective at solving problems for our customers and people and to globally scale our successful market innovations at speed,” the company said.

OPEC+ Weekend
- OPEC cut production by 1.1m b/d
- Now $100 price targets coming
- 6% move for crude over past 2 days
- Problematic for inflation -

Banking Crisis
- Is it all over?
- Jamie Dimon’s assessment of the US banking crisis that sent markets careening last month, an episode he predicts is “not yet over” and will be felt for years.
- He said US authorities shouldn’t “overreact” with more rules.
- Annual Letter: As I write this letter, the current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come

Tesla
- Record quarterly deliveries
- BUT, price cuts and less deliveries than expected.
- Tesla delivered 422,875 vehicles for the first three months of this year, up 4% from the previous quarter.
- This was 36% higher than a year ago. In January, Chief Executive Elon Musk said Tesla could achieve 2 million vehicle deliveries this year, up 52% from last year.
- Analysts believe that if they had not done price curs in January, this quarter would have been really ugly
- Concern has shifted to margins now

Credit Suisse Takeover
- Switzerland’s Federal Prosecutor has opened an investigation into the state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS Group, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
- The Bern-based prosecutor is looking into potential breaches of Swiss criminal law by government officials, regulators and executives at the two banks, which agreed on an emergency merger last month, the report said citing the authority.

First Republic Bank
- Massachusetts regulators have opened an investigation into sales of company stock by top executives at First Republic Bank in the weeks leading up to the recent banking turmoil.
- Massachusetts' Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin told Reuters his office has subpoenaed First Republic. He is seeking details about the firm's insider trading policies and how officers handled their stock sales from January 1.

Here Comes the Regulation
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday that banking regulation and supervisory rules need to be re-examined in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures to ensure current banking system risks are addressed.
- Yellen also called for stronger regulation of the growing non-bank, or "shadow bank", sector, including money market funds, hedge funds and crypto assets.
- Yellen said a 2018 roll-back of bank capital requirements and stronger supervision for smaller and mid-size banks with assets below $250 billion should be re-examined.
- Better late than never?

Did You Know?
- Coca-Cola plant in New Jersey produces $2B worth of cocaine annually thanks to special deal with DEA
- The Coca-Cola Company's exclusive license to import coca leaves into the US allows a small chemical processing facility concealed in a peaceful New Jersey neighborhood to manufacture up to $2 billion worth of pure cocaine annually.
- The cocaine byproduct is sold to the country's biggest opioid manufacturer, who sells the powder as a numbing agent and topical anesthetic for dentists.

EARNINGS
- Earnings season set to begin next week.... Slowly then all at once
- JPM kicks it off on April 14

Masters Cold This Weekend
- Weather is going to be a problem
- Thursday Chance of rain, Friday 100%, Saturday 100% (cold), Sunday 70%

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Microsoft Activision deal – back in the spotlight.

Bank runs have cooled – but there are still questions.

Resilient – yes, that’s the word Fed officials will use. Over and over to describe banks.

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Warm Up
- More Banks - But not to worry
- Odds are for RATE CUTS this year starting July
- Chili Cook Off - The Results (ask Andrew about the Cocoa)
- Crawfish Boil and BBQ this weekend - What is JCD Doing?
- Dueling message on Seaweed Blob
- Moores law - Coiner - Dies

Market Update
- Big Bucks pulled from banks - (they have been screwing depositors for years with low rates)
- Big banks getting those Big Bucks
- Recession odds increased with all of these problems

A Moment
- Gordon Moore, the Intel Corp. co-founder whose theory on computer-chip development became the yardstick for progress in the electronics industry, has died. He was 94.

Bank Notes
- Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system 'sound and resilient'
- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council on Friday.
--- "The Council discussed current conditions in the banking sector and noted that while some institutions have come under stress, the U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient," the statement said.
- Data released Thursday showed that institutions took a daily average of $116.1 billion of loans from the central bank's discount window, the highest since the financial crisis, and have taken out $53.7 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program.
Sunday - Kashkari: “The banking system is resilient, and it’s sound,” Kashkari told Margaret Brennan on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “The banking system has a strong capital position and a lot of liquidity and has the full support of the Federal Reserve and other regulators standing behind it. Now, I’m not saying that all of the stresses are behind us, I expect this process will take some time.”

Controversial
- Big banks, advising smaller banks...
- The dynamic has put big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs in the awkward position of playing multiple roles simultaneously in this crisis. Big banks are advising smaller ones while participating in steps to renew confidence in the system and prop up ailing lenders like First Republic, all while gaining billions of dollars in deposits and being in the position of potentially bidding on assets as they come up for sale.

New Programs - Because Banks are Sound
- US authorities are considering expanding an emergency lending facility for banks in ways that would give First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
- AND YET - "I think this is more of a Bear Stearns moment. I think a lot of people, including me, said when they bailed out Bear Stearns, they increased moral hazard. They created an expectation of further bailouts," former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair said Friday
- "[The government is] trying to imply that all uninsured are protected, which they don't have legal authority to do, frankly, and this is putting pressure on community banks," she said. "It's really troubling."

First Citizens Buys Silicon Valley bank - SWEETHEART DEAL
- First Citizens BancShares is acquiring $72 billion in SVB assets at a discount of $16.5 billion
- But even after the deal closes, the FDIC remains on the hook to dispose of the majority of remaining SVB assets, about $90 billion, which are being kept in receivership.
- And the FDIC agreed to an eight-year loss-sharing deal on commercial loans First Citizen is taking over, as well as a special credit line for "contingent liquidity purposes,"

Fed heads
- All bests are on that cuts are going to happens starting July
- We are entering into a problem zone
--- Lack of Cred for Fed
---- 150 bps differential between Official Fed expected rate and market Assumptions

Cuts Start July

Fed Funds Probabilities

Heads Roll - Credit Suisse
- Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar al-Khudairy resigned his post on Monday, days after his comments exacerbated the share collapse of troubled bank Credit Suisse.
- Al-Khudairy's resignation comes within days of his mid-March comments to Bloomberg that SNB was unlikely to increase its stake in Credit Suisse, at a time when the European lender battled a crisis of investor confidence that plunged its shares.

Homes/Housing
- Real-estate firm Zillow Group Inc. is exiting from the home-flipping business, saying that its algorithmic+ model to buy and sell homes rapidly doesn’t work as planned.
- The firm’s termination of its tech-enabled home-flipping business, known as “iBuying,” follows Zillow’s announcement about two weeks ago that it was halting all new home purchases for the rest of the year.
- At the time, Zillow pointed to labor and supply shortages for its inability to renovate and flip houses fast enough.

Twitter News
- Twitter CEO Elon Musk valued his company at less than half the price he purchased it for in a stock option offer to employees last week.
- Musk gave stock grants to employees in an email earlier this month that valued the company at roughly $20 billion, a far cry from the $44 billion he purchased the company for last year, according to the Wall St. Journal.

Michigan
- Michigan became the first state in decades to repeal its “right-to-work” law when Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) signed legislation on Friday to rescind it.
- “Right-to-work” laws allow employees at unionized workplaces to opt out of joining a union and or paying dues. Proponents of these types of laws argue that they allow workers to decide for themselves whether to join a union

Port Update
- 1st - Need a TRAIN report
- Now, 43% less imports were processed at the Port of Los Angeles in February compared to the same time last year.
- "We're still in a very strange place with our retail community. Inventories remain very high, new orders coming out of Asia won't pickup until that older inventory is purchased by us, the U.S. consumer," said Gene Siroka, the Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles.
- There has also been a shift away from West Coast imports, which the port is working to address.

In Other News
- Fastest Joint roller....
- With nimble fingers and years of practice, Ativat Janmuangthai beat other cannabis enthusiasts to roll a perfect, one-gramme joint in 43 seconds on Saturday, becoming the fastest joint-roller in Thailand's Phuket.
- Apart from the title and trophy, the winner, in his 30s, was also awarded a cash prize of 5,000 baht ($146.37).

Seaweed Blob - Debunked
- In the past week, numerous news outlets warned of a massive "seaweed blob" destined to take over Florida's east coast. "Massive seaweed bloom starts washing ashore on Florida beaches," the New York Post reported. "A seaweed blob twice the width of the US is heading toward Florida," CNN forewarned.
- Dr. Yuyuan Xie uses satellites to study Sargassum, a genus of large brown algae that floats around in island-like masses. "There is no 'seaweed blob.

Microsoft - Activision
- The U.K.'s competition regulator on Friday said it has narrowed the scope of its investigation into Microsoft's takeover of Activision, saying it no longer believes the deal will lead to a substantial lessening of competition in the console gaming market.

Walgreens Earnings
- Walgreens revenue rises despite sharp decline in demand for Covid tests, vaccines
- Somehow the company says that revenue on prescriptions up as they are open for more hours.
- Don't people get the same amount of prescriptions no matter the pharmacy hours?

Crypto Sewer Remains Open
- Major cryptocurrency exchange Binance and executives, including CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao, have been sued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for regulatory violations
- Binance's compliance program has been "ineffective" and the firm, under the direction of Zhao, told employees and customers to go around compliance controls, the CFTC said. It also accused Binance's former Chief Compliance Officer Samuel Lim of aiding and abetting Binance's violations.

EV Losses
- Ford Motor said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year on an operating basis, a loss that was more than offset by $10 billion in operating profit between its internal combustion and fleet businesses.
- 2023 will unfold along similar lines, forecasting an adjusted loss of $3 billion for its EV unit
- Just throwing losses to that segment to make others look better?

Why Not?
- 4G to arrive on the moon this year
- Nokia is preparing to launch a 4G mobile network on the moon later this year, in the hopes of enhancing lunar discoveries — and eventually paving the path for human presence on the satellite planet.
- The network will be powered by an antenna-equipped base station stored in a Nova-C lunar lander designed by U.S. space firm Intuitive Machines, as well as by an accompanying solar-powered rover.

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No rest for bankers – weekend overload to quiet markets.

COCO bond rug pull – billions lost

The Fed in a no-win position this week. Rate decision meeting Wednesday.

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Warm Up
- Full blown banking crisis - S&P P/E still above 17+
- Fed has big decision tomorrow
- Fed/Treasury dusting off financial crisis playbook
- Bond yields move - largest since '87
--- Banks joining in the charade - $30 billion
- Whatever you do - don't say bailout!

Market Update
- Banks failing - forced merger over weekend
- Fire sale for deposits - big win for some banks
- COCO / ATI Bond massacre - RUG PULL
- Tech favored over most other sectors
- Goldman says rates hikes over

FED GAME - What will the do tomorrow?
- ECB Playbook (raise like nothing happening)
- Powell Playbook - raise 0.25% and keep pushing that the data is what they look at - try to save face...
- Volker Playbook - ram it
- Bernanke Playbook - zero or cut

GAME ON
- We are playing the real life Monopoly
- Treasury Secretary Yellen says the govy could backstop more deposits if necessary to stop contagion
- - Trillions in deposits - how would that work?
- - - Monopoly Rules: The Bank: The Bank newer "goes broke." If the Bank runs out of money, the Banker
may issue as much more as needed by writing on any ordinary paper.
----- Why would Yellen need to say that ???

Asked on Twitter this week: Why do so many investors enjoy throwing hard earned money into dumpster fires?
(Follow John at @therealdvorak and Andrew at @andrewhorowitz)

Dust off the playbook
- Plenty of financial crisis moves being made
---- Have I mentioned that this group of Fed leaders could be the worst in my lifetime?
- $30 billion from consortium of banks into First Republic
---- NON insured accounts was the push
--- NO WAY is this not backstopped by Fed/Treasury as a attempt to boost confidence. TOTAL BS
----- Meanwhile - investors are not impressed. (Stock down from $29 to $17 since announcement)
---- WAIT - NEWS BREAKING MONDAY - JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) Dimon is leading talks with bank executives of others banks about new FRC plans; deal could involve converting previously announced $30 bln in deposits into a capital infusion, according to WSJ
----- NO Correction out - that may bot be the way they want to go .... Just spitting at the wall with ideas it seems
-- Meanwhile after 47% drop yesterday, FRC up 36% Tuesday (still down 90% from peak)

Remarkable
- Yields up from ZERO
- Earnings down and falling
- Global banking crisis
- S&P 500 forward P/E at 17.9
- PEG at 1.8!

Credit Suisse COCO
- UBS buys for pennies on the dollar
- COCO bonds (Contingent Convertible bonds) - wiped out
- $17 billion lost as regulators write down bonds to ZERO
- COCOs - high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached (AKA ATI bonds)
--- They’re essentially a cross between a bond and a stock that helps banks bolster capital to meet regulations designed to prevent failure. They’re contingent in the sense that their status can change if a bank’s capital levels fall below a specified level; they’re convertible because in many cases they can be turned into equity

Forced Merger
- Credit Suisse bought by UBS
- In a package orchestrated by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS Group AG will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses. (80% discount)
- The Swiss central bank said Sunday's deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse.

Fed Decision
- Holding 2-day decision on rates today and tomorrow
- 65% chance of a 0.25% hike
- EuroZone hiked 0.50% last week as they did not want to appear nervous
- Interesting that 1/2 of the QT since last April reversed in one week
- GOLDMAN: “In light of recent stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its March 22 meeting with considerable uncertainty about the path beyond March.”

Deals Deals Deals
-A subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp has entered into an agreement with U.S. regulators to purchase deposits and loans from New York-based Signature Bank, which was closed earlier this month.
- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said the deal would see Flagstar Bank, the subsidiary, assume substantially all deposits and certain loan portfolios, and all 40 of Signature Bank's former branches. The FDIC said roughly $60 billion of the bank's loans and $4 billion of its deposits will remain in receivership.
- NYCB up 35% on the news.

More Deals - Banks for Sale!
- The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) is planning to relaunch the sale process for Silicon Valley Bank after failing to attract buyers in its latest auction, with the regulator seeking a potential break-up of the failed lender, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Banks may get to cherry pick and get some real deals here...

Winners and Losers
- Bank of America Corp. took in more than $15 billion in new deposits in a matter of days, emerging as one of the big winners after the collapse of three smaller banks dented confidence in the safety of regional lenders.
- Schwab claims it too in $$$$$$$$$
- Money moving from one place to the other - the big will get too Bigger to fail...

After the Fact - Shoes Again
- A Singapore shoe recycling project will be subject to surprise inspections following a Reuters investigation that found footwear it donated to the scheme was not recycled, Singapore's minister of culture said.
- Presented with Reuters findings, Dow and Sport Singapore opened an investigation and later terminated the contract of Yok Impex, a local textile exporter that was subcontracted to collect shoes from donation bins.

Two Sides of Mouth...
- On one hand, banks out with talk about how they are getting in deposits or not losing anything meaningful.
- On the other - Banks sought record amounts of emergency liquidity from the Federal Reserve over recent days in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which in turn helped undo months of central bank efforts to shrink the size of its balance sheet
--- Banks took an all-time high $152.9 billion from the Fed's traditional lender-of-last resort facility known as the discount window as of mid-week last week, while also taking $11.9 billion in loans from the Fed's newly created Bank Term Lending Program.
- - - The discount window jump crashed through the prior record of $112 billion in the fall of 2008, during the most acute phase of the financial crisis.

QT- In Full QE Mode

QT PIVOT

Side Trip
- A trademark dispute over a poop-themed dog toy shaped like a Jack Daniel's whiskey bottle coming before the U.S. Supreme Court could redefine how the judiciary applies constitutional free speech rights to trademark law.
- Jack Daniel's Properties Inc, owned by Louisville, Kentucky-based Brown-Forman Corp, is appealing a lower court's decision that Phoenix-based VIP Products LLC's "Bad Spaniels" chew toy is an "expressive work" protected by the First Amendment.
- The toy mimics Lynchburg, Tennessee-based Jack Daniel's famous whiskey bottles with humorous dog-themed alterations - replacing "Old No. 7" with "the Old No. 2, on your Tennessee Carpet" and alcohol descriptions with "43% Poo By Vol." and "100% Smelly."|
- Seems other similar dog toys - Jamuttson, Barker's mark, Star Pups, White Paw, Pup Light, Pups Blue Ribbon Beer, Houndessey, Chewlulu Hot Sauce, Dr. Pooper, Poopsie

VETO - As Expected
- President Biden vetoes bill that would have repealed rule that allows money managers to consider climate change and other ESG factors on retirement investments
- Go ahead and invest in made up nonsense

What The....??
- The European Commission has drafted a plan allowing sales of new cars with internal combustion engines that run only on climate neutral e-fuels, in an attempt to resolve a spat with Germany over the EU's phasing out of combustion engine cars from 2035.
- Such vehicles would have to use technology that would prevent them from driving if other fuels are used, the draft said. This would include a "fueling inducement system" to stop the car from starting if it was fuelled by non-carbon neutral fuels, it said.
- Carbon-neutral fuel is fuel which produces no net-greenhouse gas emissions or carbon footprint. In practice, this usually means fuels that are made using carbon dioxide (CO2) as a feedstock. (Biofuels, Hydrogen)
--- BACK TO HORSE DRAWN CARRIAGE?

OH Fauker
- The owner of Dubai-based tobacco business Al Fakher has hired Rothschild & Co to advise it on strategic options, including a possible initial public offering, two sources familiar with the matter said.
- Al Fakher is owned by Advanced Inhalation Rituals, a private company that is majority owned by London-based Kingsway Capital.

Australian?
- Australian members who purchased their Peloton device via Affirm financing are in for some good news: Affirm is waiving the balance of their outstanding loans.
- This is a result of Affirm deciding to cease operations in Australia last month

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Banks get smoked as depositors run scared.

Fortunately we get a Sunday Night STICK SAVE!

We have some bones to pick – bad math and even worse work ethics.

Where are the bargains? We have some thoughts.

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Warm Up
- Back from Central America!
- Largest bank failure since 2008!
- Fed will keep raising until something breaks - HELLO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Worst Fed Ever!
- General lack of any business sense - math clearly not a priority in last generations
- - No attention to detail - oversight sucks- management is limp
- Sunday Night STICK SAVE! (A joint statement from the various regulators involved said there would be no bailouts and no taxpayer costs associated with any of the new plans. )

Market Update
- Capitalism is Dead - Moral Hazard Lives On!
- 2-day panic attack with region banks - SVB Blowup
- DJIA down for the year
- California Banking system is imploding - RUN-ON-Bank
- CPI - not slowing down too much - 6% YoY
- Everyone now banking on less Fed hikes due to banking crisis - or none... Or cuts! (85% chance for 0.25% increase next week)

Coming up this week on Andrew's TDI Podcast - Guest, Anthony Scarramucci

BONE TO PICK
- All these tik-tok nubes - want to be a millionaire but have no idea what that means - LET me explain something from someone who works with lots of money all the time... It takes work and then more work
- - You can't just make it, you need to keep it. That is just as hard.
---- Making it is not just seeing it on social media - it is a grind and something special - hard work - which it seems is not what people want.
----- Sit at home, no oversight, playing on phone, personal time and personal boundaries that are above work AND not watching the details.
--- This is what creates the mess we see today - Then we want government to bail us out! Childish!

Assuming everyone knows what happened. Right?
- Banks started to get squeezed as assets/loan valuations got crushed under higher rates
- Fed pushed hard and banks did not risk adjust
- Bad oversight - SVB - Moodys was going to downgrade, Theil makes some noise about problems, stock offering to raise capital, sold bonds at loss - run on bank
- Started with other banks and the problems from overlevearaging with Crypto - all the dominoes falling had to impact firms (tech pulling cash to meet needs, other companies trimming up)
- Realization hit that regional banks could have more problems

The Fed is Actually Looking At Itself
- EPIC lack of oversight, blinders on as usual
- The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced that Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr is leading a review of the supervision and regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, in light of its failure. The review will be publicly released by May 1.
- "The events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank demand a thorough, transparent, and swift review by the Federal Reserve," said Chair Jerome H. Powell.
- "We need to have humility, and conduct a careful and thorough review of how we supervised and regulated this firm, and what we should learn from this experience," said Vice Chair Barr.
- There will be findings, many many months out as to how they could have done better, but nothing will come of it.
----- Fox guarding the hen house. Should be independent but Fed is above it all - right?

Late Call - Or is it Early?
- Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment'
- The firm, part of the big three rating services, said it was making the move in light of three key failures that prompted regulators to step in Sunday with a dramatic rescue plan for depositors and other institutions impacted by the crisis.
- "We have changed to negative from stable our outlook on the US banking system to reflect the rapid deterioration in the operating environment following deposit runs at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank (SNY) and the failures of SVB and SNY," Moody's said in a report.

Lots of comments
- Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC says there might be disinflation in the near term, but new backdrop for Fed policy is inflationary; says Fed will raise rates 25 basis points
- Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tells Bloomberg that there will be more financial aftershocks
- President Biden says deposits at SIVB and SBNY will be there and are safe; says management of banks will be fired; no losses will be borne by the taxpayers, money will come from fees paid to FDIC; investors in banks will not be protected; will ask Congress to strengthen bank regulation
- Bill Ackman tweets "Our economy will not function effectively without our community and regional banking system. Therefore, the FDIC needs to explicitly guarantee all deposits now. Hours matter."

Government Intervention
- In addition the backstopping SVB’s deposits, federal regulators also announced efforts on Sunday to stabilize the wider banking system. One of those is the Fed’s Bank Term Lending Program, which will allow banks to exchange certain high-quality assets for cash without booking mark-to-market losses.- JCD - Buy AH bonds at maturity value even though underwater
- Just killed capitalism

More 0n Intervention
- IT IS A BAILOUT
- “We’ve changed the system,” economist Mohamed El-Erian, - “Depositors should not worry. Your deposits are fine,” he said. “It is almost impossible now to go back on unlimited deposit guarantee.”
- So much for the $250,000 and how is unlimited backstop paid for ??? FDIC?

Thought Exercise
- Who would want to keep $ with regional and small banks after this?
--- If unlimited backstop of deposits for smaller banks - why would anyone keep money at big banks?
---- Will all banks have unlimited backstop? Who will pay for that?
----- Why not just have the government as the bank?

KBE/KRE Banking ETF
- Down 20% -Month to Date
- Regional Banks - OOOOOH
- - Signature Bank (SBNY.O) dropped about 23%, while San Francisco-based First Republic Bank (FRC.N) fell 15%. Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) tumbled 21% and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) dropped 38% after those stocks were halted several times due to volatility.
--- That was Friday!
- MONDAY Below..... (Saw a nice bounce Tuesday - even with a general downgrade for the industry by Moody's)

| FRC | First Repub Bank | -61.82% | | WAL.PA | Western Alliance Bancorp | -46.20% | | PACWP | PacWest Bancorp Pfd | -44.62% | | MCB | Metro Bank Hldg Corp | -43.46% | | DPST | DX Dly Regional Bks Bull 3X | -36.28% | | FRC.PJ | First Republic Bank/CA | -35.34% | | FRC.PN | First Republic Bank/CA Pfd | -29.59% | | FRC.PH | First Rep Bk San Fran CA Pfd H | -28.35% | | CMA | Comerica Inc | -27.65% | | FRC.PI | First Rep Bk SF | -27.13% | | KEY | KeyCorp | -26.95% | | FRC.PM | First Republic Bank/CA | -26.76% | | CNOBP | CONNECTONE BANCORP INC NEW DEP | -26.21% | | ZION | Zions Bancorp | -25.87% | | BOH.PA | Bank of Hawaii Corp | -25.42% | | FRC.PK | First Republic Bank/CA | -25.34% |

Holy Interest Rates - IN REVERSE

Interest Rates REVERSE

Of interest
- An explosion in trading in a type of equity derivative security in recent months has prompted Wall Street players and a major clearing house to examine the potential risks it poses, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
- So-called zero day to expiry options (0DTE), which refers to contracts that expire in less than 24 hours, offer retail and institutional traders a relatively cheap, though high-risk, way to bet on intra-day swings in stock prices. They could be tied to the price of indices, exchange traded funds or single stocks.
- Some have warned that this type of option, which offers an opportunity for traders to amplify market bets, could cause an extreme selloff.

How Does This Work?
- WWE is in talks with state gambling regulators in Colorado and Michigan to legalize betting on high-profile matches
- WWE is working with the accounting firm EY to secure scripted match results in hopes it will convince regulators there's no chance of results leaking to the public
- Betting on the Academy Awards is already legal and available through some sports betting applications, including market leaders FanDuel and DraftKings, although most states don't allow it

JetBlue
- The Justice Department on Tuesday sued to block JetBlue Airways' $3.8 billion proposed takeover of budget carrier Spirit Airlines, the Biden administration's latest attempt to prevent industry consolidation.
- JetBlue's plan would eliminate the unique competition that Spirit provides—and about half of all ultra-low-cost airline seats in the industry—and leave tens of millions of travelers to face higher fares and fewer options

Yellen on Climate
- Climate change is already having a major economic and financial impact on the United States and may trigger asset value losses in coming years that could cascade through the U.S. financial system, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
- Yellen told a new advisory board of academics, private sector experts and non-profits there has been a five-fold increase in the annual number of billion-dollar disasters over the past five years, compared to the 1980s, even after taking into account inflation.
- They can't predict a bank meltdown 2 days out - how can they

More ESG
- The Senate last Wednesday passed a bill to overturn a Labor Department rule that permits retirement fund managers to weigh climate change and other factors when making investments on behalf of retirement plan participants.
- Biden vows to VETO

Fatso
- More than half of the world's population will be overweight or obese by 2035 without significant action, according to a new report.
- The World Obesity Federation's 2023 atlas predicts that 51% of the world, or more than 4 billion people, will be obese or overweight within the next 12 years.
- Rates of obesity are rising particularly quickly among children and in lower income countries, the report found.

Sweet Finale
- March Flavor of the month at Baskin Robbins
- Chick’n & Waffles, its take on a “deconstructed brunch classic
- The dessert is made with buttermilk waffle-flavored ice cream and crispy chick’n and waffle bits sprinkled in, with swirls of bourbon maple syrup.
- This ice cream doesn’t actually come with bits of chicken. As the company explained, the crunchy bits are only made to “mimic the taste of fried chicken.”

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China making moves. Elon gets his crown back and reversal of fortunes.

March is just ahead – rates could spoil the party.

Baby Bonds are back on the menu…

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Lots of News - same old...
- China making moves
- Elon gets the crown back
- Jamie Dimon Speaks Up
- Cool Update From Apple
- And Baby Bonds ....

Market Update
- A down month - short and out
- Large Cap Growth - Beating Large Cap Value this year (small caps tied)
- S&P 500 up ~ 4% for 2023 NASDAQ 100 up 10%!
- Bonds - taking back some of the last month gains
- Gold, Silver walking back on higher USD - Switcheroo

NO SHOW NEXT WEEK*

Inflation - Not Giving Up
- - The U.S. Federal Reserve may hike interest rates to nearly 6%, BofA Global Research said, as strong U.S. consumer demand and a tight labor market would force the central bank to battle inflation for longer.
- PPI, CPI and PCE come in hot...
- Don't think this is all over, but clearly not moving as fast - looks like we will settle in this area for a while

Vape Wars
- Altria Group Inc. is in discussions to acquire vaping startup Njoy Holdings Inc. for at least $2.75 billion in cash, according to people with knowledge of the situation.
- A deal could be announced as soon as this week, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. There is also $500 million in follow-up payments if Njoy hits certain regulatory milestones, the people said.
- Altria recently wrote down the value of its investment in Juul to $450 million. The decision to end the noncompete “maximizes our flexibility to compete in the e-vapor space while maintaining our economic interest in Juul,” Altria said in a statement.
- BUT - original investment was $13 billion
- GENIUS PLAN - kill the vaping industry so cigarettes are back in vogue

China Area
- Great slow play for markets...
- Turn from ZERO-Covid to 100% - then keep rolling out more and more
- Hong Kong will drop its COVID-19 mask mandate, chief executive John Lee said on Tuesday, in a move to lure back visitors and business and restore normal life more than three years after stringent rules were first imposed in the financial hub. (945 days)
- ---- Egg Freezing - A member of China's top political advisory body said she would propose allowing unmarried women to access egg freezing as a measure to preserve their fertility after the country's population fell last year for the first time in six decades.
----------- Lu's recommendations come as authorities try to bolster a faltering birth rate with incentives including expanding maternity leave, financial and tax benefits for having children as well as housing subsidies.

More China
- China Renaissance Holdings said in an exchange filing on Sunday that its missing chairman and star dealmaker Bao Fan was currently cooperating with relevant Chinese authorities conducting an investigation.
- Reuters previously reported, citing sources, that authorities took Bao away earlier this month to assist in an investigation into a former colleague, Cong Lin, the company's former president.

Even More China
- Chinese authorities have urged state-owned firms to phase out using the four biggest international accounting firms, signaling continued concerns about data security even after Beijing reached a landmark deal to allow US audit inspections on hundreds of Chinese firms listed in New York.

Target Earnings
- Target (TGT) reported a quarter similar to Walmart's (WMT) last week with a solid Q4 beat on the top and bottom line offset by weak guidance for Q1 and FY23. Q4 adj. EPS fell 41% from an impossible comp while comp sales grew 0.7%
- Both were much better than expected. Adj. earnings are expected to grow 37% this year with flat sales in Q1 and FY23.
- Mgmt forecasted a wide range of sales for Q1 and 2023 given the uncertain macro; they don't want to have to warn about results like they did last year. The setup for most retailers remains challenging after significantly overearning in 2021.

He's Baaaack!
- Elon is once again the richest person in the world
- Also the most chatty person in the world
- May be one of the most annoying people in the world

Ukraine Surprise Visits
- First Biden
- Now Yellen - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen swept into Kyiv on Monday on a surprise visit to reaffirm U.S. support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russia's invasion and promote U.S. economic aid that is bolstering Ukraine's war effort.
- Some people think it is just to get an overdue check/payments (But, for which side?)

Holy Interest Rates

Interest Rates Since 1990

RecycleGATE
- Recycled shoe program with DOW checmical - fraud?
- Promised to harvest the rubberized soles and midsoles of donated shoes, then grind down the material for use in building new playgrounds and running tracks in Singapore. (or parks for kids)
- Reuters tracked 10 pairs they donated via secret tracker and ALL ended up in second hand store in Singapore

Oil slumps - But...
- Russia has halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, Daniel Obajtek, chief executive officer of Polish refiner PKN Orlen, said on Saturday.
- The pipeline, which supplies oil to Poland and Germany, as well as to Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia, was excluded from sanctions to help countries with limited options for alternative deliveries.
- Excluded as not good for us - so we will not protest that item
------- Morgan Stanley has raised its global oil demand growth estimate for this year by about 36%, citing growing momentum in China's reopening and a recovery in aviation, but flagged higher supply from Russia as an offseting factor.

Global oil consumption is now expected to increase by about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), versus its previous 1.4 million bpd forecast

Jamie Dimon Speaks
- Dimon said he expects that interest rates could "possibly" remain higher for longer, as it may take the central bank "a while" to get to 2% inflation.
- JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Thursday that the Federal Reserve has lost some control of inflation, but noted the U.S. economy continues to show signs of strength."- Dimon said he's not currently breaking out the recession playbook, as he is encouraged by the strength of the U.S. economy.
- "The US economy right now is doing quite well. Consumers have a lot of money. They're spending it. Jobs are plentiful," Dimon said. "That's today. Out in front of us, there's some scary stuff. You and I know there's always uncertainty. That's a normal thing."

Apple - THIS
- Apple Inc. has a moonshot-style project underway that dates back to the Steve Jobs era: noninvasive and continuous blood glucose monitoring.
- The goal of this secret endeavor — dubbed E5 — is to measure how much glucose is in someone’s body without needing to prick the skin for blood. After hitting major milestones recently, the company now believes it could eventually bring glucose monitoring to market, according to people familiar with the effort.
- Does not seem that this technology is available to the public yet - still in development

Baby Bond idea is back
- Democratic lawmakers in Washington are renewing a proposal to give every American child $1,000 at birth.
- The "baby bond" funds, called American Opportunity Accounts, would then be topped off with up to $2,000 per year, depending on a family's income.
- The accounts would be federally insured and managed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
- Account holders would be able to access the funds once they turn 18 to pay for eligible uses, such as higher education or homeownership.
----- Taxpayer transfer - interesting but stupid

How Do We Feel About THIS? Gene Editing (Different than CRISPR?)
- Moderna Inc will collaborate with privately-owned Life Edit Therapeutics Inc under an agreement to discover and develop mRNA gene-editing therapies, the companies said on Wednesday.
- The tie-up will apply Life Edit's diverse collection of new technology for gene editing with the Moderna mRNA platform that was behind its COVID-19 vaccine.
- Under the agreement, the companies will collaborate on research and preclinical studies funded by Moderna to develop curative therapies for some of the most challenging genetic diseases.

No Bueno
- U.S. payment giants Visa and Mastercard are slamming the brakes on plans to forge new partnerships with crypto firms after a string of high-profile collapses shook faith in the industry
- Both Visa and Mastercard have decided to push back the launch of certain products and services related to crypto until market conditions and the regulatory environment improve

US Child Labor
- U.S. officials said the Labor Department had seen a nearly 70% increase in child labor violations since 2018, including in hazardous occupations. In the last fiscal year, 835 companies were found to have violated child labor laws.
- The maximum civil monetary penalty is currently just $15,138 per child, the administration noted in a press release, a figure that's "not high enough to be a deterrent."

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Markets are feeling the pain of a Fed that just can’t make up its mind.

Earnings from retail – not so good.

Global warming is the reason for this all!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- A quick apology to Hobby Lobby
- Inflation ticking up - CPI and PPI not what the market wanted
- Change up, this Zip Code - now most expensive in country
- Arctic melt is coming - Doomsday Glacier
- WHAT? Water BillFlation
- Announcing the Winner of the CTP !

Market Update
- Bullard and Mester - Not liking the markets euphoria (50bps talk coming back)
-- Ever since they opened their mouth - market been in a tailspin
- Bird Flu - expanding - watch out chicken and egg prices
- Tesla flying high - stock back in vogue
- All-time high's for this country's main stock market
- Earnings finishing off - mixed bag, but points to concerning quarters to come

Bad Bullard (H/T Bespoke)

Bullard Speaks

Continuing on....
- Worst day of the year today...
- S&P 500 Down 2%, DJIA off by 700pts (2%, NASDAQ down 2.5%
- 10-year climbing toward 4% again|
- Blame placed on unusual strength of the economy - turning better last several weeks.

Water Bill
- $1,578 this month at the house - that is inflation!
- Full Story - No Leaks

Hot Real Estate
- Miami’s Star Island is now the nation’s most expensive neighborhood while the number of New York City areas where buying a home would set you back at least $1 million is on the decline, according to a new survey.
- The average price of a single family home on Star Island, the man-made enclave off the coast of Miami Beach that is home to celebrities including Shaquille O’Neal, Gloria Estefan, and Rosie O’Donnell, was valued at an eye-popping $40.2 million as of December, according to Zillow.
- 71% increase over 3 years
- Star Island is now four times as expensive as Beverly Hills Gateway in Beverly Hills
- NY real estate not lagging behind by much
--- January average rent for Manhattan apartment - ALL TIME HIGH

Bird Flu
- Could bolster inflation (food) again
- Outbreaks of the virus have continued in North and South America, Europe, Asia and Africa
- Farmers thinking about vaccines - once unheard of
- A company farm in Weld County, Colorado, was infected twice within about six months, killing more than 3 million chickens, Rust said. He thinks wind blew the virus in from nearby fields where geese defecated.

Twitter
- The Taco Bell of social media - introducing a new product update almost daily
- Twitter said on Friday it will allow only paid subscribers to use text messages as a two-factor authentication (2FA) method to secure their accounts.
- The company believes phone-number-based 2FA is being abused by "bad actors,"
- Twitter owner Elon Musk tweeted "Yup" in reply to a user tweet that the company was changing policy "because Telcos Used Bot Accounts to Pump 2FA SMS," and that the company was losing $60 million a year "on scam SMS."

Glacier melting
- Antarctica's vast Thwaites Glacier - nicknamed the Doomsday Glacier - say warm water is seeping into its weak spots, worsening melting caused by rising temperatures
- Thwaites, which is roughly the size of Florida, represents more than half a meter (1.6 feet) of global sea level rise potential, and could destabilize neighboring glaciers that have the potential to cause a further three-meter (9.8-foot) rise.
- Is this concern all about the displacement of the above the line ice?

Brexit - Who Cares
- The FTSE 100 is at an all-time high.
- With all of the problems in Europe, world... ALL TIME HIGH
- Obviously the best decision England made was to leave the EU

Cisco Earnings
- The company that is all about IoT
- Earnings: 88 cents per share, adjusted, vs. 86 cents per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
- Revenue: $13.59 billion, vs. $13.43 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
- Cisco's total revenue grew 7% year over year in the quarter, which ended Jan. 28, according to a statement. Net income decreased about 7% to $2.77 billion.
- The company called for fiscal third-quarter adjusted earnings of 96 cents to 98 cents per share and 11% to 13% revenue growth. (much better than expected)
- benefiting from BUY AMERICAN (or don't buy China?)

More Earnings
- Dillard's -9.2% heads sharply lower following earnings; dragging down other department store chains: KSS -7.6%, M -5.4%, JWN -3.8%
- - Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $14.51 per share, excluding items, $5.66 better than the single analyst estimate of $8.85; revenues rose 0.7% year/year to $2.13 bln vs the $2.15 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
----- DO NOT TRADE THIS STOCK - Low Float, manipulated
- Home Depot - Not a bad quarter - guides very defensively
--- For the first time in several years, HD's comparable sales declined on a yr/yr basis, coming in at -0.3% for the quarter. While the company did lap a challenging yr/yr comp of +8.1%, the 6.0% drop in customer transactions this quarter, on top of a 3.4% decline in the year-ago quarter, points to weakening demand, particularly in the do-it-yourself (DIY) business.
- Wal- Mart - Not bad, maybe conservative guidance?
---- Walmart beats by $0.20, beats on revs; comps +8.3% above guidance; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus
- Coinbase - Earnings: Loss of $2.46 per share, vs. loss of $2.55 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Revenue: $629 million, vs. $590 million as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.
----- Revenue plunged nearly 75% from a year earlier as the so-called crypto winter continued to drag on the price of cryptocurrencies. The company also reported a (non-adjusted) net loss of $557 million, a year after Coinbase generated net income of $840 million during the peak of crypto adoption.
-----???? How is this company losing money if their main competition was recently closed?

JCD Nails It
- Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw told CNBC he thinks it's safe for families to return to East Palestine, Ohio, nearly three weeks after toxic chemicals were released following a train derailment earlier this month.
- Shaw said the company so far removed about 450 cubic yards of contaminated soil and secured about 1.1 million gallons of contaminated water. He said the company will continue to "do the right thing for this community" and see the recovery effort all the way through. He did not lay out a time frame.
- US Govy trying to get ahead of it - pointing and wagging fingers, blaming Norfolk Southern

UK - 4-Day
- British companies trialling a four-day working week have mostly decided to stick with it after a six-month pilot in what campaigners for better work-life balance view as a breakthrough.
- Employees at 61 companies across Britain worked an average of 34 hours across four days between June and December 2022, while earning their existing salary.
- Of those, 56 companies, or 92%, opted to continue like that, 18 of them permanently.

420 Stocks ...

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The sky is falling – literally.

We are seeing markets applaud spending cuts – but how far does that reach?

An update on inflation and the Fed’s latest shenanigans.

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Warm Up
- Superbowl - thoughts on adverts/halftime?
- Jesus Gets Us
- Big news at the BOJ
- Crypto Under Fire
- AI frenzy seems over already
- Kanye West Fallout continues
- Soft Landing - Really?

Market Update
- Inflation ticks up again
- UFO sightings and not much concern (Aliens)
- Biden Eco Team shuffle
- Inflation comes in a bit hot - markets shrug
- What is making market move? Interesting insight
- Parade of Fed speakers this week - mostly trying to sell their story (markets deaf to it)

Happy Valentines Day!
- Great time for a donation of either $214 or even $14
- Anyone that donated $214 will get a personally signed copy of my book - The Disciplined Investor - Essential Strategies for Success

Soft landing
- A soft landing by a central bank is when "the central bank tightens monetary policy to fight inflation but does not cause a recession." If it causes a recession, then it is a hard landing.
- If there is a "soft landing" then there is going to be perpetual higher prices|
- How is that possible knowing the economic cycles?

Inflation Update
- CPI comes in at 0.50% today (prior was 0.1%)
- YoY 6.4%
- Some serious concern that inflation may be much more sticky than thought
---- Potential 0.25% increase for more meetings and higher terminal rate
- MARKETS DO NOT CARE

Morning Meeting
- Breakfast with big shot from Merrill today
- Message, it will be messy but just stay invested
- made some odd comments about valuation and earnings and just rushed past them
- AH had sidebar with him.. Asked about the comment of $200 projected earnings for SP500 -
-- Infers P/E forward of 20+
- Asked about his overweight US if better value elsewhere
--- He said that makes sense of course, yeah
----- These guys are full of crap

What is actually powering market?
- Slashes, Cuts and Layoffs
- - - Spending cuts, layoffs and other creative money saving
--- Let's take that apart and see what we get
- WHY???? Earnings for S&P 500 companies are down 23% YoY

Updates
- Yahoo plans to lay off more than 20% of its total 8,600 workforce as part of a major restructuring.
- Many other companies are cutting back on CapEX and other expansion plans
- Markets applauding when they see companies are practicing fiscal restraint
- Financial Services also cutting

Tech Layoffs

ECO Team Shuffle
- President Joe Biden has decided to name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic adviser, with an announcement coming as soon as Tuesday, people familiar with the matter said.
- In addition, according to the people, Jared Bernstein, a member of the Council of Economic Advisers, is considered likely to be named its chair, replacing Cecilia Rouse, who is stepping down.

BOJ Changes
- Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.
- Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013
- Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have "global communication skills" and be able to coordinate closely with global peers
- There was some worry about Kishida not being as DOVISH as Kuroda (very difficult shoes to fill)

Starting with $20 Million on Jesus
- The “He Gets Us” ads, which directed viewers to a website to learn more about Jesus, were funded by Hobby Lobby CEO David Green and a string of other anonymous Christian donors. (Donor advised funds and
- $20 million Super Bowl ad buy is just a small part of the $1 billion they plan to invest over the next few years to promote their Jesus-loving messaging.
- The campaign’s website says they are “not ‘left’ or ‘right’ or a political organization of any kind.” They also say they aren’t affiliated with a particular church or denomination.
- “We simply want everyone to understand the authentic Jesus as he’s depicted in the Bible — the Jesus of radical forgiveness, compassion, and love,” the website says.

More Crypto Fallout
- New York's chief financial regulator has ordered Paxos, the company behind the stablecoin of major crypto exchange Binance, to stop issuing the token, Paxos and the regulator said in separate statements on Monday.
- The Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin, one of the world's biggest, is issued and redeemed by New York-based Paxos Trust Company, both of which are regulated by the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).

Google - EPIC FAIL
- Introduces its version of AI Bot
----- Stock down big after the guffaw
- - Sidebar - you know something is not right when 3 major companies reveal a major technological breakthrough that is identical - the same day
--- The boss of Google's search engine warned against the pitfalls of artificial intelligence in chatbots in a newspaper interview published on Saturday, as Google parent company Alphabet battles to compete with blockbuster app ChatGPT.
--- "This kind of artificial intelligence we're talking about right now can sometimes lead to something we call hallucination,"
- "This then expresses itself in such a way that a machine provides a convincing but completely made-up answer,"
---- Kind of like people that bullshit their way through life

Let's Talk Balloons
- During COVID I used to joke about all the headwinds - said all we need now is an alien invasion
- The U.S. Air Force general overseeing North American airspace said on Sunday after a series of shoot-downs of unidentified objects that he would not rule out aliens or any other explanation yet
- Asked whether he had ruled out an extraterrestrial origin for three airborne objects shot down by U.S. warplanes in as many days, General Glen VanHerck said: "I'll let the intel community and the counterintelligence community figure that out. I haven't ruled out anything."

Adidas Loss
- Adidas could lose around 1.2 billion euros ($1.3 billion) in revenue in 2023 if it is unable to sell its existing Yeezy stock.
- The company said late Thursday that is assessing what to do with the inventory, adding it has already accounted for the "significant adverse impact" of not selling the products.
- Stock sank 9.5% on the news

More Losses
- LYFT - OMG
--- First - anecdotally - LYFT is much more $ than UBER in SOFLA
- UBER came in pretty good, but LYFT - not so good.
- Stock plummeted 35% on the news (Still losing money - how is that possible?)
- Q4 revenue: $1.18 billion actual versus $1.16 billion expected
- Q4 loss per share: -$1.61 actual versus 13 cents expected
- Q4 active riders: 20.36 million actual versus 20.3 million expected
- Q1 revenue guidance: $975 million actual versus $1.09 billion expected
- Q4 revenue jumped 21% year-over-year, while its active ride count is up almost 9% year-over-year.

Housing Market
- Median rents in Manhattan hit a new record in January as a strong job market and limited supply of apartments lifted prices.
- The median rental price rose 15% to $4,097 from the year-earlier month — the highest ever in January
- Analysts say the main driver for Manhattan's rental market is a strong job market. While layoffs at large tech companies and Wall Street banks have made headlines, the overall job market and wage growth remains strong in New York.

Looping Back
- Read above again re housing market
- Cycle of good jobs, money in the pockets, spend the money, higher prices = inflation
- Can't have it all - something got to give

Better Earnings - Higher prices
- PepsiCo on Thursday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations, fueled by higher prices for its snacks and drinks.
- The food and beverage giant reported fourth-quarter net income of $518 million, or 37 cents per share, down from $1.32 billion, or 95 cents per share, a year earlier.

Japan/Yen
- These are how the games are played - transparency sometime in the future
- Japan confirmed on Tuesday that it made record interventions in the foreign exchange market in October, selling the dollar worth 6.35 trillion yen
- The quarterly data showed a steep drop in the yen to a 32-year low of 151.94 to the dollar on Oct. 21 triggered the intervention that day, followed by another on Oct. 24.
- Japan spent a record 5.62 trillion yen ($42.5 billion) on a single day yen-buying intervention on Oct. 21 and further 730 billion yen on Oct. 24, having spent 2.84 trillion yen on Sept. 22 to stem the yen's sharp fall
- Now you know the line in the sand for the BOJ

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Superbowl mania – what we think (not that anyone cares)

China balloons, market bubbles and plenty of frothy convo.

An update on the Weekly Stock pick’s game and the current Closest to the Pin

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Warm Up
- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City (spread +1.5 KC)
- Markets have a very amateurish feel to them - crypto patterns of intraday rush and bust
--- Meme Stocks moving again
- Seems that the Church of Whats Hot Now - back in Biz (AI names)
-- Latest Google, Baidu and Microsoft all announced AI integration today (catnip for traders)
- There is a Sushi Terrorist on the loose
- Hustle Bros are latching on and sucking your wallets
- A new FED word to watch

Market Update
- Blowout Jobs report - what in tar-nation?
- Another fraud uncovered - India
- State of the Union Speech - going after the wealthy...
- Powell speaks - Whipsaw

Golf Fitting this week..
- Pretty interesting technology
- Callaway Paradym X

MARKETS!
- The S&P 500 index rose 1.6% last week with the communication services and technology sectors leading a broad climb amid better-than-expected quarterly results from some companies and a slower pace of rate increases from the Federal Open Market Committee.
- The market benchmark ended the week at 4,136.48, up from last Friday's closing level of 4,070.56. The index is now up 7.7% for the year to date but down 8.1% from a year ago.
- This feels like an attempt to move off bottom like everyone in the pool from March/April 2020. (But this is a different time)

Fed Speak
- There was irrational exuberance
- Transitory inflation
- Green shoots
- quantitative easing
- not thinking about thinking about thinking about...
- Average inflation targeting
- balance outlook
- And Now, introducing the work - disinflation... Powell used dozens of times in last speeches...

Earnings Update
- The slowdown in YoY revenue growth... Tesla: slowest since 2020 Amazon: 3rd slowest in company history Microsoft: slowest since 2017 Netflix: slowest in company history Google: 3rd slowest in company history Facebook: 2nd slowest in company history Apple: slowest since 2016
- BP on Tuesday reported a record profit of $28 billion for 2022 while boosting its dividend in a sign of confidence as it sharply raised overall spending plans and scaled back ambitions to reduce oil and gas output by 2030.

MEME Stocks Moving again
- BBBY (looking at potential bankruptcy) up 100% today.
- AI Stocks on the move
- KOSS, GME, AMC all rocking....

Fed decision and Employment Report?
-- Odds rise after the the BLS employment report
- 500k + new hires (estimates were for +250k)
- labor participation rate rising
- 3.4% unemployment rate (lowest since 1969)
- USD jumps, Rates turn higher
- Thoughts?

State of the Union Speech
- CNBC reports President Biden will call for quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks and a 'billionaire minimum tax' in his State of the Union speech tonight

Earnings and corporate
-Amazon, Google, Apple -all had questionable earnings reports
- Apple showed worst revenue groth in years and years - stock came off then buyers stepped in for some reason
- Amazon was down as AWS missed
- Google (Alphabet) just bad all the way around.
- FORD - ugly outlook, loss and not at all what GM looked like.
- Dell slashing 6,000 jobs (5% of workforce)
----!!! Company up initially on the news, then falls 3% during session
------ ALERT, Job cuts may no longer be seen as a good thing (Investors were rewarding companies)
- HP cutting 6,000 jobs
- Chipotle - Misses on earnings (top and bottom) - guidance soft (slowing growth/comps)
- Zoom cutting salaries for execs by 20%

India
- New discussion
- Hindenburg Research (Short sellers) wrote report of biggest scam and fraud in corporate history about Adani
-- Accused company of stock manipulation, unsustainable use and tax havens
- Adani is India conglomerate whose founder was 2/3 richest person in Asia
- Gautam Adani (founder) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi are from the same state.
- 50-60% drop in the company values (all associated
- Getting so bad, Parliament was shut down for a couple of days
- $110 Billion in losses since the Hinderburge Report
--- Also of interest is the question about: How did Hindenburg play this as difficult to get direct exposure to companies in Indian market

Call for TikTok Ban
- Governor Abbot (TX) looking to ban on devices conducting state business
- Other states have been making similar statements
- Funny part: every time we hear about ban on TikTok, knee jerk reaction is to bid up SNAP (makes no sense)

AI names still kicking
- ANY mention of AI is brewing up a storm
- Change of name, align with CHATGPT or another name - zoom
- Going to be some great shorting opportunities

AND AI ...
- Isaac Herzog, the president of Israel, became the first world leader to publicly use ChatGPT on Wednesday after delivering a speech partly composed by the AI, the Jerusalem Post reported.
- It is like children with a new toy
- According to Sky News, the AI-written section began: "I am truly proud to be the president of a country that is home to such a vibrant and innovative hi-tech industry."
- Combine this with Deep Fakes - it will be all over

Powell Speaks
- Today's market action was interesting... Powell opens his mouth and markets scream higher.
- I listened - nothing at all was said to make that happen, on fact, seemed pretty dour and no stray from his previous discussions
- Once he finished (he talked about the potential need for a long grind with higher rates), markets turned down hard.. 400 point swing on DJIA, 1.6% on S&P 500
- Listen! People! You are not paying attention!

Hustle Bros
- Newest pitch: ChatGPT coaching and help
- Showing you how to create automated newsletters, write non fiction books, invest in real estate
- Make MILLIONS (essentially sitting on your ass) - No Brainer - guaranteed!
- " You no longer need to develop the skill as long as you have AI"

MUSK
- Found not-liable of the famous "420 secured Tweet"
--- With that out of the way, watch how aggressive he will get -as that seemed like a pretty serious violation
- Now complaining that the last couple of months has been tough on him
- Twitter now trending toward breakeven, rescued it from bankruptcy, while also fulfilling his roles at other companies
- "Wouldn't wish that pain on anyone," he wrote. "Twitter still has challenges, but it is now trending to breakeven if we keep at it. Public support is much appreciated!"
---- Who pays $44 billion for a company that was on the brink of bankruptcy - seems like poor financial management?
- TESLA - raised prices on Model Y after Biden admin tweaked the tax credit availability (stock up)
----- TESLA dropped prices a couple weeks ago - stock up (so doesn't matter, as long as there is news)

Drug Companies - CLIFF
- Pharmaceutical companies that made billions from the pandemic over the past two years selling vaccines and treatments are now up against a steep COVID cliff and investor pressure to spend their windfalls wisely.
- Western drugmakers including Pfizer Inc, BioNTech SE, Moderna Inc, Gilead Sciences Inc , AstraZeneca Plc and Merck & Co are estimated to have brought in about $100 billion in revenue from COVID vaccines and treatments in 2022.
- Company and analyst estimates suggest sales from COVID vaccines could fall by nearly two-thirds this year due to built up product inventories around the world including in the countries that pay the most.
- Strategists are now desirous of these companies to use their gains for consolidation / M&A

And this...
- Sushi Terrorist
- A teenager, dubbed a ‘sushi terrorist’, caused the stock value of a Japanese restaurant to plunge after he was filmed licking the top of a communal soy sauce bottle and contaminating a piece of food on a conveyor belt.
- He also licks the rim of a teacup before placing it back on a shelf and touched a piece of sushi after licking his finger.
- Meanwhile - everyone seems okay eating a piece of RAW FISH or

Flat Earther
- Flat Earthers seem to beleive that Photoshop and CGI is used by NASA to prove earth is a sphere
- Claims that $52 million a day is given to cover up the flat earth reality while there are startving kids in Africa
---- What is going on?

Crypto
- Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, will suspend U.S. dollar deposits and withdrawals, the company said Monday
- "We are temporarily suspending USD bank transfers as of February 8th," a Binance spokesperson told CNBC. "Affected customers are being notified directly." The company said "0.01% of our monthly active users leverage USD bank transfers" and added that "we are working hard to restart service as soon as possible."
- The start of something???

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A new CTP announced – the first one for 2023.

There is a new buzzword and it moves stocks pretty substantially.

Big week ahead, earnings and the FED – coming at us at full speed.

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Warm Up
- Superbowl teams are set - Eagles and Kansas City
- Big week for Earnings (big boys) and Fed rate decision (Wednesday)
- People perplexed - why are multiples staying so strong with all the info at hand?
- Expectations for Friday's employment report?

Market Update
- January ends on a good note. NAZ up about 10%, DJIA +2%, Long Bond ETF +7%, Bitcoin up 39%, Gold up 5.6%
- On Above -> yields down , dollar down (exact opposite of most of 2022)
- Car Companies - charging up the EV race
- EuroZone surprise ECO
- Interesting study on stock performance after earnings

Fed decision?
-- Odds are leaning to a 0.25% increase
- Thoughts?

Earnings Stats
- So far this earnings season, companies in the S&P 500 that MISS estimates are outperforming the S&P by 1.4%
- On the flip side, those companies that have beat expectations have slightly underperformaed the S&P 500
- Per Goldman, stocks that have missed Q4 earnings estimates thus far are outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 bps the following session, performing better than stocks beating EPS, first time this has happened with data going back to 2006
- Theories?

More Earnings
- FVCBankcorp (FVCB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.45 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
- This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -43.75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.47 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.48, delivering a surprise of 2.13%.
- Stock smoked on the news....

GM Earnings
- General Motors (GM +8%) is trading higher after the automotive giant reported Q4 results this morning. GM reported big upside for both EPS and revenue. GM also guided FY23 EPS to $6.00-7.00, which was better than analyst estimates, and to FY23 adjusted EBIT of $10.5-12.5 bln.
- GM also announced it will make an equity investment of up to $650 mln in Lithium Americas (LAC). The two companies will jointly invest to develop the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada, which is the largest known source of lithium in the US and the third largest in the world.

Cardboard
- Cardboard box demand drops to lowest level since 2008
-- Bad for Amazon?
- Meanwhile International Paper (IP) up 8%

SURPRISE!! The euro zone grew 0.1% in the last quarter of 2022, according to preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday.
- Expectations were for a -0.1% .... so not that far off and potential that revisions could take it down
- The region has been under significant pressure in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as high food and energy costs compounded long-standing supply chain bottlenecks.
- Germany was the worst in the grouping - GDP down -0.2% in 4th quarter

AND!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised upward its global growth projections for the year, but warned that higher interest rates and Russia's invasion of Ukraine would likely still weigh on activity.
- 2.9% is the updated outlook, a 0.2% increase. DOWN fro 3.4% expected back in 2022
- Much of the upgrade is probably due to CHINA reopening.

Follow Up - Robo Lawyer
- Last week DoNotPay CEO Joshua Browder announced that the company's AI chatbot would represent a defendant in a U.S. court, marking the first use of artificial intelligence for this purpose. Now the experiment has been cancelled, with Browder stating he's received objections from multiple state bar associations.
- "Bad news: after receiving threats from State Bar prosecutors, it seems likely they will put me in jail for 6 months if I follow through with bringing a robot lawyer into a physical courtroom,"

The New "BlockChain"
- Remember when certain words spark stocks?
- Blockchain, Bitcoin etc...
- New One - Anything AI/ChatBPT
- BuzzFeed Inc. said it would rely on ChatGPT creator OpenAI to enhance its quizzes and personalize some content for its audiences, becoming the latest digital publisher to embrace artificial intelligence.
- Buzzfeed stock (BZFD) up from $1 to $3.25 last week
- Look for other names that can move... Like AI (talked about this on TDI over weekend - up 25% today)

Uh Oh - Windfall???
- Energy giant Chevron announced a $75 billion stock buyback program and a dividend hike on Wednesday evening. (20% of market cap)
- With record profits in the sector - are we going to see another round of poking at the industry even after gas prices have come down?

On the other hand...
- Southwest Airlines reported a $220 million loss for the fourth quarter after the carrier's holiday meltdown drove up expenses and cost it millions in revenue during what was expected to be the busiest travel period since the pandemic began.
- The airline on Thursday said the mass cancellations hit its pretax results by $800 million.
- Adjusted loss per share: 38 cents vs an expected loss of 12 cents.
- Total revenue: $6.17 billion vs an expected $6.16 billion.

Over to Japan
- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would nominate a new Bank of Japan governor next month, as markets test whether the central bank will change the ultra low-rate policy of the dovish Haruhiko Kuroda.
- Markets are testing the resolve of the BOJ probably ore now as they know Kuroda is on the way out.
- Kuroda, whose five-year term ends on April 8, has stuck with policies aimed at stoking price rises and growth, even with inflation at 41-year highs and double the BOJ's target

More Japan
- Japanese Prime minister Fumio Kishida pledged to take urgent steps to tackle the country's declining birth rate, saying it was "now or never" for one of the world's oldest societies.
- Japan has in recent years been trying to encourage its people to have more children with promises of cash bonuses and better benefits, but it remains one of the most expensive places in the world to raise a child, according to surveys.
- Stats in China also show that their population is shrinking

One More
- Whale Meat vending machines in Japan
- The Kujira (Whale) Store, which opened Tuesday in a port town near Tokyo known as Yokohama, has three machines for whale sashimi, whale bacon, whale skin and whale steak
- The machines also sell canned whale meat ranging from 1,000 yen ($7.70) to 3,000 yen ($23).

Exec Pay
- With all of the mass firings/layoffs - what about the Execs???
- Goldman Sachs is trying to send by slashing boss David Solomon’s pay by a third for 2022, to $25 million.
- Measured by Goldman’s performance last year, Solomon actually did fairly well. While pre-tax profit halved, it was only from a weird, pandemic-distorted 2021. It remained 27% higher than in 2019. Goldman also grew its book value – accounting-speak for shareholders’ claim on the lender – by a respectable 6%.
- Tim Cook gets a cut for $99M in 2022 to $49M

Hacking the Hackers
- The Federal Bureau of Investigation hacked a prolific ransomware gang called Hive to disrupt its operations and rescue its victims, senior U.S. officials said on Thursday.
- News of the takedown first leaked on Thursday morning when Hive's website was replaced with a flashing message that said: "The Federal Bureau of Investigation seized this site as part of coordinated law enforcement action taken against Hive Ransomware."

Amazon (earnings this week)
- Amazon is axing free grocery delivery for Prime members on orders less than $150.
- Customers who get their groceries delivered from Amazon Fresh -- and pay less than $150 — will be charged between $3.95 and $9.95, depending on the order size
- Currently, the company offers members free grocery deliveries on orders above $35, with the exception of New York, where it’s $50.

Over to Hollywood
- One after the other - meaningless news/headlines/press releases
- Announcement: Paramount Global is further joining its streaming and cable TV business by combining its Showtime TV network and streaming service, Paramount+.
- The company said it plans to integrate Showtime's streaming service fully into Paramount+
- A bundle already exists for $$11.99 - SOOOOOO, with new name an a new logo probably going to just push price higher for the same service
- Amazon Publishger Direct and Paramount Advertising are doing a deal where corss availability of some media content (all for benefit of advertisers)
--- Seems that these OTT and NO CABLE businesses are having some trouble.

Life Support
- Bed bath & Beyond - in a regulatory filing last week said that it had defaulted on certain debt payments
- A bankruptcy filing could come within weeks, two people familiar with the matter said
- The retailer has been talking with Sycamore Partners to sell assets, including its Buy Buy Baby stores, as part of a possible bankruptcy.

Betting on Sports - Commercials
- Molson Coors is teaming up with online sports betting company DraftKings in a marketing campaign that allows viewers to place wagers on the beer company's upcoming Super Bowl commercial
- Molson Coors and DraftKings said they're offering viewers a piece of a $500,000 prize pool for correctly predicting the contents of the brewer's commercial, dubbed "The High Stakes Beer Ad."
- According to a new teaser for the ad, fans aged 21 and up will be able to place bets through their DraftKings accounts on multiple-choice questions such as "Which beer is mentioned first?" during the Super Bowl ad.
- Seems like could be rigged pretty easily and manipulated, no game of chance or skill here.
- Is this just too much already?

And finally....
- A growing number of Americans are falling behind on their car payments, an ominous sign for the U.S. economy as high car prices and persistent inflation strain household budgets.
- In December, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills climbed to 5.67% — a major increase from a seven-year low of 2.58% in April 2021
- It marks the steepest rate of Americans struggling to make their car payments since the 2008 financial crisis.

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Europe is not the hot investment ticket.

The markets like all the bad news – layoffs, weak economics.

A big trade in 2022 pays off – billions and billions.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Mondays and Fridays - Let's just invest on those days.
- AH and China Covid Update
- Biggest Trade EVA
- Firings/layoffs/staff reductions the new "good news"
- Getting the feeling that we are all obsolete - layoffs and AI

Market Update
- Quick Check - Big action, not much change. Markets sit about where there were last week this time
- Debt Ceiling is the next screw up for this administration - will push an pull (for no reason)
- Activists are getting busy - Elliot in on a big name
- Europe in play again - All of a sudden

CTP STOCK?

China - COVID UPDATE
- The possibility of a big COVID-19 rebound in China over the next two or three months is remote as 80% of people have been infected, a prominent government scientist said on Saturday.
- Do we have any working heories why they just gave up on COVID lockdowns?

Europe - Target prices raised
- Warmer temperatures and well-filled gas storage facilities mean there's less concern about power shortages and sky-high energy bills.
- JPMorgan has raised its forecast for euro zone first-quarter economic growth to 1% from a contraction of 0.5%
- Goldman upgrades as well
- $ net inflows to European equity funds last week - first time in a year
- In terms of valuations, European blue-chips are trading at a multiple of around 13, compared with a ratio of around 20 for the S&P 500
- Note: H&C has been continuing to add to non-US exposure for portfolios

EuroStocks

Euro and Gas Prices

Growth in EU

Big Play
- Ken Griffin’s Citadel churned out a record $16 billion in profit for clients last year, outperforming the rest of the industry and one of history’s most successful financial plays.
- Citadel’s gain was the largest annual return for a hedge fund manager, surpassing the $15 billion that John Paulson generated in 2007 on his bet against subprime mortgages.

Activists at the Gate
- Salesforce shares gained more than 5% premarket Monday on news that activist investor Elliott Management has reportedly taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the cloud-based software giant.
- Closed up 3%
- If they are successful they will look for more "efficiencies" (job cuts) and potentially shedding low margin business sectors (Slack)

Regulators at the gate
- The U.S. Department of Justice and several states filed a lawsuit against Google alleging that it illegally monopolized the market
for online ads through years of self-dealing, anticompetitive acquisitions, and forcing businesses to use the products and services that
it offers. The lawsuit could lead to a breakup of Google’s advertising business. Matt Kent, competition policy advocate for Public Citizen,
released the following statement:
- - “Nowhere is Big Tech’s monopoly power more apparent than in Google’s domination of the digital advertising market. One company cannot be permitted to control every layer of the market that, for better or worse, is the lifeblood of online commerce and our digital lives. The Justice Department is continuing its strong trend under AAG Kanter of taking on monopolists rather than negotiating with them.”

Here is the Green Light for Firing
- Wayfair — Recent news of layoffs and also reality of negative profits (aka losses) and poor financials... BUT
- The online retailer jumped more than 26% after being double upgraded to overweight from underweight by JPMorgan.
- The Wall Street firm cited improving market share trends and a better grasp on spending from management.

Are We Obsolete?
- ChatGPT going premium - $42 / month
- Microsoft adds another round of investment - Microsoft announced on Monday a new multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment with ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
- - - Microsoft declined to provide a specific dollar amount. Semafor reported earlier this month that Microsoft was in talks to invest $10 billion.
- AI passes Wharton biz school test
- Two artificial intelligence (AI) programs -- including ChatGPT -- have passed the U.S. Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE), according to two recent papers.
- !!!!Reports that developing world people paid $2/hour by OpeAI for content moderation - to watch disturbing vids and other web stuff per contract with company Sama. (Sama gets $12.50 per hour from OpenAI, pays works fraction

Earnings
- Netflix still being bought - stock up 100% from lows on hopes that they will once again get back all the pandemic subs
- Microsoft - Slightly better than expected on a few fronts - stock up 4% after hours.
---- Conf call: Nadella came out swinging - really pumping all the good.. Then guidance dissapointed... stock down 1% by close of A/H
- IBM, Lam Research, Tesla, ServiceNow, Mastercard, Chevron upcoming...

Disgusting
- First Fake Meat - pea protein
--- Reports that it is now considered FAD rather than a trend for the future
- Cultivated meat is derived from a small sample of cells collected from livestock, which is then fed nutrients, grown in enormous steel vessels called bioreactors, and processed into something that looks and tastes like a real cut of meat.
- Singapore, so far approved the product for retail sale.
- Chicken is the thing rights now....

Yellen staking her legacy
- Wants to totally revamp the IRS.
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday said rebuilding the Internal Revenue Service would be one of her top priorities in coming years
- Yellen told Reuters in an interview on her way to Zambia that she was thrilled that Congress had approved $80 billion in new funding to help the agency reduce a huge backlog of tax returns and better hunt down $600 billion in unpaid tax bills.
- YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED

If you ever want to track commodities?- Great link - https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Jamie Dimon on Remote Work
- Jamie Dimon said working from home “doesn’t work” for younger staff or bosses, the Wall Street titan’s latest salvo against remote work.
- “It doesn’t work for young kids or spontaneity or management,”
- Here is a surprise (ApolloTechnical) - On average, those who work from home spend 10 minutes less a day being unproductive, work one more day a week, and are 47% more productive.

Inflation
- Zimbabwe still running hot - 243% with a 200% Fed interest rate and a 5% jobless rate (seems weird)
- One country really sticks out
- Table to Bookmark - https://tradingeconomics.com/matrix

World Eco Table

Class action lawsuit
- AH just got Equifax claim $5.52
- Wells Fargo: If you had a Wells Fargo account between 2011 and 2022, you might be one of the 16 million customers who qualify for damages, says the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
- If you're eligible to receive money, Wells Fargo is required to notify you. In fact, many customers have already received their payments, either as a check or credit to their existing accounts.
- However, per CFPB's updated guidance, if you think you're eligible for a payment and have not received it yet, you should contact a Wells Fargo customer representative.

Debt limit - starting to look for options
- The Treasury Department is beginning the use of special measures to avoid a US payments default, after the federal debt limit was reached Thursday.
- Taking about "borrowing" from some retirement funds for some govy workers...

Hit 'em where it hurts
- Citigroup Inc has discriminated against the firearms sector, the office of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said, making a decision that "has the effect" of halting the bank's ability to underwrite most municipal bond offerings in Texas.
- Texas enacted a law in 2021 that prohibited government contracts with entities that discriminated against the firearms industry.
- Citi's designation as an SB-19 discriminator has the effect of halting its ability to underwrite most municipal bond offerings in Texas.

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Financials reporting – mixed results. All much worse than a year ago.The HOPE trade is looking for a kindlier and gentler Fed.

China has an interesting update on their population.

Yield Curve inversion is real – pay attention.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm Up
- Market in Rally Mode
- Climate Change at Davos, ESG defended (should be defunded)
- China releases population studies
- Mega Million > $1.35 Billion (ONE WINNER!)
- Biden classified docs - wow, unforced error there.

Market Update
- Quick Check - January 2023 - SP500 +4.2%, TLT +7.22%, QQQ +7%, EEM 9%, BTC +28%, FXI +13.5%, GLD +5%
- USD Basket 2023 Down 1%, 3 Months - 9%
- Bank earnings - mixed, watching for margins and outlook for remainder
- Bond yields pricing in easier Fed - 10Y @ 3.5%
- EU hints on slowing rate hikes - maybe only 0.25% at next meeting.

Deflation Talk ?

Commodity Prices

Housing Deflation?

Housing Prices (CS20)

AH Tweet:
- If you were wondering - not just a flash in the pan occurrence. Yield curve clearly and definitively inverted. Will discuss tomorrow night on DHUnplugged Podcast.

Inversion

Speaking of the USD
- Morgan Stanley cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the dollar index to 98, and expects the greenback's weakness to be more pronounced against the euro this year as worries about the severity of an economic downturn start to ease.
- They previously saw the index , which weighs the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, ending 2023 at 104.
- Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning and the USD is rapidly losing its carry advantage

USD Weakness? Change in Central Bank Policy? Bond Vigilantes attack
- Yields on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds breached the central bank's new ceiling on Friday in the market's most direct challenge yet to decades of uber-easy monetary policy.
- A wall of selling catapulted 10-year Japanese government bond yields 4 basis points higher to 0.54%, the highest since mid-2015 and above a recently widened band of -0.5% to +0.5% set by the BOJ in a shock decision just a few weeks ago.
- No more negative yields - anywhere in the world
----- This is where it gets interesting - The stress was evident across the yield curve and defied the BOJ's announcement on Friday of a fresh round of emergency buying worth around 1.4 trillion yen ($10.84 billion), when it already holds 80% to 90% of some bond lines.
--- BOJ owns more than 50% of all bonds issued from Japan (Eating your own arm because you are hungry)

Europe Off The Hook for Deep Recession?
- Europe experienced its second-warmest year on record in 2022, European Union scientists said on Tuesday, as climate change unleashed record-breaking weather extremes that slashed crop yields, dried up rivers and led to thousands of deaths.
- This was big concern due to Nat Gas Pricing and Oil (Russia related)
- - Now said that Europe may not enter recession....
---- In other words, they have no idea as early in the Winter and anything can happen - but betting warm conditions continue?

Back to Davos
- Climate activists protested in Davos on Sunday against the role of big oil firms at this week's World Economic Forum (WEF), saying they were hijacking the climate debate. (In other words, they are disagreeing with Climate activists and they don't like that)
- And here who is saying this: "We are demanding concrete and real climate action," said Nicolas Siegrist, the 26-year old organiser of the protest who also heads the Young Socialists party in Switzerland.
- With ESG crapola under scrutiny - there is an opening here

"We Love EVs" - Unless Govy Subsidies are Unavailable and Interest Rares are Too High
- Tesla Inc has slashed prices globally on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%, extending an aggressive discounting effort and challenging rivals after missing Wall Street delivery estimates for 2022.
- Tesla lowered prices across the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, following a series of cuts last week in Asia, in what analysts saw as a clear shot at both smaller rivals that have been bleeding cash and legacy automakers aggressively ramping up electric vehicle production.
- Demand slowdown is clear...
- TSLA also wants to reduce prices so that US tax credits available again - will hurt margins
- The U.S. price cuts on Tesla's global top-sellers the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover SUV were between 6% and 20%, Reuters calculations showed, with the basic Model Y now costing $52,990, down from $65,990.
- Those cuts are before a $7,500 U.S. federal tax credit that took effect for many electric vehicles on Jan. 1 that could bring discounts to more than 30%.
- - HIT GM and Ford Friday hard...

China Population report:
- China's population fell last year for the first time since 1961, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of population decline.
- That possibly makes India the world's most populous nation.
- Maybe the population decline in 2020-2022 is not from the usual reasons?

China Population

China Birth Rate

Earnings
- JPM and C, BAC all beat earnings estimates (DUH)
--- BUT - business slowed from a year ago
- CITI: Net profit came in at $2.5 billion, or $1.16 per share, for the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with $3.2 billion, or $1.46 a share, a year earlier.|
- JPM: "We still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming from geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, the vulnerable state of energy and food supplies, persistent inflation... and the unprecedented quantitative tightening."
--- The bank flagged a modest deterioration in its macroeconomic outlook, "reflecting a mild recession in the central case".
- Some talk from Dimon and Moynahan about potential for recessions|
- WFC pulling put of mortgage market (unless current clients)
- Stocks down on initial news and then end up closing nicely higher for the day (Could be Yield Curve related)
- GS - outlook is terrible, expenses rise - misses on both top and bottom, stock down ~ 8%
- MS - beats and has better guidance, NII up 52$ from year ago - stock up 8%

Mega Millions
- Play?
- 2nd largest jackpot ever!
- $1.35 BILLION - one winner from Maine (First time ever from Maine)
- $723 million cash prize (After taxes > $500 million)
- Put all S/T in Treasuries provides $20 million per year (before taxes)

Amazon
- Interesting going head-to-head with Shopify
- Amazon.com Inc will widely roll out a feature by end-January that allows online merchants outside its platform to use the e-commerce giant's payment and delivery services, as it takes on rising competition from Canada's Shopify Inc
- 'Buy With Prime', which was launched as an invite-only offering in April, will be widely available to U.S.-based merchants by Jan. 31, the company said.
---- AWS started as a cloud based solution that Amazon used internally.... Following same script?
------ WHAT IF Amazon private labeled sites with their suite of e-commerce tools

Similar - but Different?
- Walmart strikes a deal with Salesforce to sell more of its tech to other retailers
- On Thursday, it announced a deal with Salesforce to ramp up sales of its GoLocal delivery service, which drops off purchases at customers' doors; and Store Assist, which helps employees more quickly and accurately pick and pack orders for curbside pickup and delivery.
- "By bringing in other retailers, we can understand what the customer needs are throughout the shopping journey and then be able to improve our products to be able to serve the customer no matter how, where or when they shop," he said. "That ultimately is going to benefit us also because we will continue to keep improving our products."
--- So they are going to spy on customer trends as other retailers sell through their platform? Really?

* ABOVE TWO STORIES SMELL FROM DESPERATION *

Rewind - CHATGPT
- New York, New York and Seattle, Washington have placed bans on the tool at the middle and high school levels
- Higher learning institutions, like colleges and universities, have hesitated on a ban, unsure how realistic the move would be and refusing to encrouch on the freedom of the learning environment.
- Teachers and schools need to come up with solution to scan to see if written by Chat/AI
- Between Harvard, Yale, the University of Rhode Island and other schools, over 6,000 teachers have signed up for chatbot detection.

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Greatest scam ever! Keep em’ FAT!

2023 outlook – what comes next.

Updates on New Years and the weather in Cali.

Announcing the winner of the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up
- Back at it! Happy New Year
- Fed still walking the walk
- Monday - Holiday
- Greatest scam ever! Keep em' FAT!
- New Speaker - Wore them down - McCarthy !

Market Update
- Rolling over into the EOY 2022
- Lots of talk about Higher Rates for Longer
- 3.5% Unemployment?
- Earnings start to roll in this week - JPM, WFC, C, BAC
- Recession - Yield Curve Still Inverted, Key Indicators Rolled over

California weather update- What is going on?

Asset Classes 2022

Asset Class 2022

Sectors 2022

Sectors 2022

S&P 500 Valuations

Simple Math
- 2 components of valuations made easy - earnings and confidence growth can be maintained
- Earnings - last year $215 - exp 2023 $225
- Multiple = Confidence of Growth (Currently at 17 forward)
- Recessions usually under 15 (way under)

Simple Math

Employment Report
- Better (lower) wage growth got markets moving
- 3.5% unemployment (from 3.7%)
- 235k +/- jobs added
- Manufacturing jobs lagging
- Markets offsided - moved up big after report digested
- US Dollar sank, metals rose, Yields came in

GDP Report
- Latest quarter shows expansion - but....

ISM Blended Composite
- Services finally moved under 50 - full contraction now

ISM Composite

Da' Fed
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday stressed that central bank policymakers remain committed to wrestling high inflation under control, even though the methods to do so can prove to be politically unpopular.
- Speech today seems to warn that the Fed is not going to back down, even if it hurts the economy.
- "Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time," Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference held by Sweden's central bank. "But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy."

Musk News
- Richard Branson said that Elon showed up on his kitchen at 2:30 am ?
- Branson said he woke up in the middle of the night to find the SpaceX CEO barefoot in his kitchen downstairs with his fast asleep baby X Æ A-12 after a staff member had let him in. WHAT?????????????
- TESLA - Cut prices in China - Backlash!
---- Elon Musk was the second person ever to amass a personal fortune of more than $200 billion, breaching that threshold in January 2021, months after Jeff Bezos.
----- The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer has now achieved a first of his own: becoming the only person in history to erase $200 billion from their net worth.

TESLA
---- Disgruntled Tesla Inc. owners swarmed showrooms in China over the weekend to complain about missing out on another round of price cuts as the company tries to boost sales in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market.
- Meanwhile - Tesla's Chinese suppliers jumped after the electric automaker slashed prices for some models in China.
---- Now almost 40% cheaper in China as compared to US prices)
----- Price cuts as China ends EV subsidy (news pounded China EV plays)
- Shares of Anhui Shiny Electronic Technology closed 8.8% higher and Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics gained nearly 9%. Zhejiang China Electrics closed 7.92% higher and Shandong Jinjing Science & Tech rose more than 6%.

Wells Fargo
- Instead of its previous goal of reaching as many Americans as possible, the company will now focus on home loans for existing bank and wealth management customers and borrowers in minority communities, CNBC has learned.
- As part of its retrenchment, Wells Fargo is also shuttering its correspondent business that buys loans made by third-party lenders and “significantly” shrinking its mortgage-servicing portfolio through asset sales.
- Altogether, the shift will result in a fresh round of layoffs for the bank’s mortgage operations, executives acknowledged, but they declined to quantify exactly how many jobs will be lost.

Weirdness in Techland
- Shopify tells employees to cut meetings
---- The e-commerce firm is canceling all recurring meetings with more than two people and encouraging staffers to decline invitations and detach from big internal chat groups.
- Big meetings of more than 50 people will get shoehorned into a six-hour window on Thursdays, with a limit of one a week.
- Refocus on Sales???? Good idea...
---- (Old Days) It was said that you don't make sales sitting at your desk

Salesforce
- Big cuts on workforce - Fireforce?
-- 10% cut of employees (7,000) initially
--- Then a day later comes with some more discussion about cost cutting
----- Then, more firings being discussed
---- Benioff Email to employees (sniipet)
--------I've been thinking a lot about how we came to this moment. As our revenue accelerated through the pandemic, we hired too many people leading into this economic downturn we're now facing, and I take responsibility for that. Within the next hour, employees who are initially affected by this decision will receive an email letting them know. Our leadership will reach out directly to these employees, and provide clarity for their teams about changes within their organizations.

More Layoffs
- Amazon and others
- Goldman too!
---- Slashing 3,000 jobs

Big news - Davos Confab (moved from Spring to Jan)
- Could be market moving
- January 16th begins
--- Do not see list of speakers yet - don not see news that Powell is speaking
- Generally a bunch of blowhards using eco and climate to press agenda ($$$)
- - Vice premier Liu attending (clear message as Pres Xi Jinping attended in previous years

Earnings
- LULU comes out with tepid outlooks - stock down 10%
- macy's tempering outlook - closing stores - stock down 8%
- Who is next?????

AI Getting OOC (Out of Control)
- ChapGPT - all people can talk about
- TWEET: DoNotPay will pay any lawyer or person $1,000,000 with an upcoming case in front of the United States Supreme Court to wear AirPods and let our robot lawyer argue the case by repeating exactly what it says.
---- We have upcoming cases in municipal (traffic) court next month. But the haters will say “traffic court is too simple for GPT.” So we are making this serious offer, contingent on us coming to a formal agreement and all rules being followed. Please contact me if interested!

LOVE THIS
- Planet Fitness locations give away free pizza on the first Monday of every month and free bagels on the second Tuesday of every month — that's right, a gym that gives away free food

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A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022.

Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!

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Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets.

Listener Ryan Rediske put together a series of compilations by subject chronologically. He spent an enormous amount of time pulling clips from shows from 2021 and then stitched them together for this episode.

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A chronological compilation, separated by subject from DHUnplugged Podcasts aired in 2022.

Some good laughs and fun throughout the year.

Thanks to Ryan Rediske for all the help in putting this together!

DHUnplugged is now streaming live – with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show?Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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Looking back at 2020 we covered a good amount of ground. Some laughs and deep insights on the markets.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

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View Details

Twitter in the news – what a surprise.

China Covid policy shaking things up.

Year end moves that we are watching.

Update on the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up
- Questioning integrity of Twitter
- Trump sells out NFT collection
- Losing streak for NAZ continues
- Throwing in the towel on 2022

Market Update
- Rolling over into the EOY 2022
- Lead Blanket Discussion
- Yen Rallies - Massive move after Surprise Move
- FedEx and Nike Earnings just released
- Economics Upcoming...

Earthquake in California 6.4?
- North of San Fran.......

Markets
- MTD Dec 2022
- SPY - 6.5%
- QQQ - 8%
- TLT +0.52%
- IWM - 7.5%
- EEM - 4.25%

Year To Date - By The Numbers

YTD 2022

Yen Surprise - Almost 4% gain TODAY

YTD 2022

Nike Earnings
- NIKE beats by $0.20, beats on revs, gross margin down 300 bps, which is better than its prior guidance of down 350-400 bps; North America up 30%, Greater China down 3%
- Stock up 12% A/H

FedEx Earnings
- FedEx beats by $0.36, misses on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, reduces capital spending outlook by $400 mln; expects to generate FY23 cost savings of approx. $3.7 bln
- - - Second quarter results were constrained by continued demand weakness, particularly at FedEx Express.
- - - FedEx Express operating income declined 64% year-over-year due to lower global volumes, partially offset by an 8% package yield increase.
- - - FedEx Ground operating income increased 24% year-over-year, due primarily to a 13% yield increase and cost reduction actions.

- - FedEx Freight operating income increased 32% year-over-year, driven by an 18% yield increase.
Not a great outlook overall from management - but maybe better than feared?
Stock up slightly A/H

Economic Data on Tap
- This week - Consumer Confidence (Tomorrow) GDP (3) Leading Indicators (Thursday), Durable Orders, PCE Prices and Personal income and Spending (Friday)
- Last week's Retail Sale (-.6%)

Retail Sales Highlights (Briefing.com)- Total retail sales, which are not adjusted for price changes, declined 0.6% month-over-month in November (Consensus -0.1%)
- Retail sales, excluding autos, fell 0.2% month-over-month (Consensus +0.2%).

Key Factors- Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales declined 2.3% following a 1.6% increase in October.
- Furniture and home furnishing store sales declined 2.6% following a 2.0% increase in October.
- Electronics and appliance store sales fell 1.5% following a 0.9% decline in October.
- Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers sales declined 2.5% following a 1.3% increase in October.
- General merchandise sales dipped 0.1%, paced by a 2.9% decline in department store sales, following a 0.3% decline in October.
- Clothing and clothing accessories store sales dropped 0.2% after being flat in October.
- Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book store sales declined 0.6% following a 0.7% increase in October.
- Gasoline station sales slipped 0.1% following a 4.8% increase in October.

Musk Items
- Please explain the use of polls to do his dirty work?
- Using "public" to choose outcome by wording question/poll to what he expects?
- --- Also, can't he just push the numbers to gain his desired outcome.
--- FOLLOW UP - Poll to see if he should step down as Twitter CEO
------ TSLA stock cap down $600-700 BILLION since high - much attributed to Twitter nonsense
-- -OH NOW - Voting on Policy will be only for Blue Members

Twitter Seeks Infusion
- Elon Musk’s team has reached out to investors to raise new funds for his struggling social media platform Twitter, one of the investors said.
- Twitter has seen advertisers flee amid worries about Musk's approach to policing tweets, hitting revenues and its ability to pay interest on the $13 billion debt that Musk took on to buy the social media company.
- 454.20 per hsare is what he is seeking.??????
- Tesla shares suffering since he bought Twitter - down 30% + since purchase

Takeover
- U.S. defense contractor L3Harris Technologies Inc said on Sunday it would buy Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc in a $4.7 billion all-cash transaction, as it looks to tap into rising demand for missiles amid the Ukraine conflict.
- The offer price of $58 per share represents a premium of 6.5% to Aerojet's close on Friday.
- JCD liked saying the company name Aerojet Rocketdyne

SBF - Fraud
- "From at least in or about 2019, up to and including in or about November 2022," Bankman-Fried "and others known and unknown, willfully and knowingly did combine, conspire, confederate, and agree together and with each other to commit wire fraud," prosecutors within the U.S. Department of Justice's Southern District of New York alleged.

Now - SPR
- The U.S. Energy Department said on Friday it will begin buying back oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, the first purchase since this year's record 180 million barrel release from the stockpile.
- The sale shrunk levels in the SPR to about 380 million barrels, their lowest since 1984, raising concerns about energy security.
- The department will buy up to 3 million barrels for delivery in February, a senior official told reporters.
-- Buying back more than was released - that should help to put a floor under the price

Streaming - A big to-do about nothing (JCD)
- It surfaced last week that Netflix is refunding advertisers after it fell short on guaranteed commercial deliveries for its new discounted partially ad-supported tier.
- Netflix failed to meet inventory guarantees because it doesn't have enough users for its $6.99-a-month Basic with Ads tier. And this shortfall came despite the fact that Netflix launched Basic with Ads with no major distribution problems back in early November.
- What is that going to do to the other streaming company BS - Disney etc.??
- Disney surprised the market earlier this month when it was revealed at the last minute that its own new partially ad-supported "Basic" tier does not have support on the No. 1 U.S. connected TV device platform, Roku.

China Update
- New projection shows 1.5 million deaths due to COVID
- AH spoke to friend that knows the health / COVID business... China vaccines ineffective
- - ALSO - concern growing that the spread in China could spark new variants that are problematic for the rest of the world.
- People afraid to leave their homes - either way people not going out and spending
- China's aluminum imports in November fell 35.7% from a year earlier as a result of mounting domestic supply, also as the COVID-hit economy continued to temper demand for the light metal.
- However, signs of easing COVID restrictions and Beijing's efforts to revive the troubled property sector have brightened demand outlook for industrial metals, as reflected in a price rise last month

This
- World's largest freestanding cylindrical aquarium bursts in Berlin
- An aquarium in Berlin that was home to around 1,500 exotic fish burst early on Friday, spilling 1 million litres (264,172 gallons) of water and debris onto a major road in the busy Mitte district, emergency services said.
- Around 100 emergency responders rushed to the scene, a leisure complex that houses a Radisson hotel, a museum, shops and restaurants as well as what the DomAquaree complex says is the world's largest freestanding cylindrical aquarium at 14 metres (46 ft) in height.

Porch Pirates
- Over the last year, an estimated 260 million delivered packages were stolen, according to a report from SafeWise, an online guide to security and safety products. A year ago, the estimate was 210 million.
- IS THIS PR FOR RING CAMERA?

Homebuilders
- Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is considered negative.
- This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. The index stood at 84 in December of last year.
- The silver lining in this HMI report is that it is the smallest drop in the index in the past six months, indicating that we are possibly nearing the bottom of the cycle for builder sentiment
- Of the index's three components, current sales conditions fell three points to 36, buyer traffic was unchanged at 20, but sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 35.

Randomness
- A bottle of 23-year-old pappy Van Winkle recently sold for $52,500 at auction, setting a new record for this extremely collectible whiskey
- There were a total of 14 bottles of Pappy up for auction, and the combined sales reached nearly $400,000. This included some other records—a bottle of Pappy 15 sold for $9,375 and a bottle of 20-year-old went for $27,500.

Trump NFT Cards
- Trump, on Thursday, announced the “Donald Trump Digital Trading Card” collection, a series of $99 NFT digital trading cards that feature Trump.
- There are 45,000 of these NFTs being created
- Value of these dropped 30% soon after release - but it is early....

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Make up your mind – China unhappy about everything.

Yellen says inflation to cool. CPI comes in a bit better than feared.

What is in store for the end of 2022 and into 2023?

Announcing the 2022 Closest to The Pin Cup!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and LinksDHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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Warm Up
- Announcing Winner of latest CTP AND Entries for the CTP Cup 2022
- China lockdowns - scaring citizens
- End of the year - Goodbye 2022 - People still concerned about 2023
- Musk boo'd ay Dave Chapelle stand-up
- China - from zero-Covid to 100% Covid
- Markets convulsing....
- Sam Bankman Fried Jailed - or just Sam Bankman NotFree or Sam Bankman Jailed

Market Update
-The S&P 500 index fell 3.4% last week as investors worried that a recent round of better-than-expected economic data might prompt the Federal Reserve to keep its key rate higher for longer.
- All of the S&P 500's sectors fell last week.
-- Energy had the largest percentage drop, down 8.4%, followed by communication services, which slid 5.4%, and consumer discretionary, which fell 4.5%. Other decliners included financials, down 3.9%; and technology and materials, which slipped 3.3% each. The smallest decline came from utilities, which edged down 0.3%.
- All eyes are the Fed meeting this week - FOMC rate decision on Thursday (75% prob of a 50 basis point hike)
- CPI Report released today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Amazing turn of events...

2022 Exit Plan
- Investors have good deal of capital losses
- End of year could see some selling to book those deductions
- - If that happens, look for a big January Effect mid January 2023
- Investors seem mentally exhausted from 2022 - get biz done now until end of year and "hope" for a more pleasant 2023
- 2023 may be just as volatile as Fed not done

CPI Report
- Lighter than feared - markets go bananas on the print (November Core CPI 0.2% vs. 0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.3%)
- Total CPI was up "only" 7.1%, versus 7.7% in October, and core-CPI was up "only" 6.0%, versus 6.3% in October.
- 10 year moves to 3.44%, USD drops hard, Stock futures soar
- CME Fed Funds Futures at 79% for a 50 bps hike; One month ago it was at 80.6% (Meeting on Dec 14)

CPI REPORT REACTION

CPI Report Reaction

One Musk
- Got on stage at Dave Chapelle stand up concert -
- Introduced as the world's richest person (which he no longer is - Bernie Arnault took over - LVMH)
- Supposedly significant # of people booing - (San Francisco venue)
- Video of event ripped down off of Twitter (This is the problem - what happened to free speech?)

CTP for 2022 - Past Winners Only for the CUP

Marcus Galliford
David Norman
Paul Retzlaff
Simon Lutzenberger
Michael Devietro
Matheau Phillips
Rusty Shacklefordd

DJIA is the index you will be guessing - you have until 12/21/2022 to enter.
- Emails went out to all of you
- NO ONE ELSE ENTER - Your price guess will be deleted if you are not the someone mentioned above.

Not Pretty

Fixed (Broken) Income Returns

$600 = 1099K
- Venmo, Paypal over $600 will be reported to IRS
- Supposed to be for business transactions
--- IRS admits, some personal transactions may be coded incorrectly
- - BUT, all income is required to be reported, so this impacts you if you have not been compliant
- - - ODD - Zelle is not reporting any transactions to the IRS....
-- - - - Zelle itself said it does not have to declare transactions made through the payment service because it is a network that does not hold the funds

2023 - Collection Social Security?
- "Your Social Security benefits will increase by 8.7% in 2023 because of a rise in cost of living," the Social Security Administration states in the annual statements it is currently sending to beneficiaries.
- Highest increase in 40 years
-- On top of 5.9% increase from 2022
--- So, 15% increase over 2-years!

Follow Up|
- Who is going to pay for the massive SS increase?
- The average retiree benefit will go up by $146 per month, to $1,827 in 2023 from $1,681 in 2022, according to the Social Security Administration The average disability benefit will increase by $119 per month, to $1,483 in 2023 from $1,364 in 2022.
- What's more, standard Medicare Part B premiums will go down by about 3% next year to $164.90, a $5.20 decrease from 2022.

Smoking Private Deal
- The maker of grills and other outdoor cooking products agreed to be taken private by BDT Capital Partners for $2.32 billion in cash, or $8.05 per share. Weber shares closed Friday at $6.50.
- Stock came out during pandemic - IPO's at $14, ran as high as $20
--- To restate this transaction.... Company was sold to public at $14, now being bought back at $8
--- Being bought by BDT partners which already owned 48%

Can we talk oil??
- Trading in low $70's
--- DOWN from $92 last month because:
- OPEC is holding production levels, CHINA reopening, Russian price caps and restrictions, Russia threatening to cut production, Keystone Pipeline leak, SPR rebuild, USD down, US economy doing well...
--- How is this possible? Price should be near $100!
------ Is this fear over US recession?

Yellen Tellen:
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday forecast a "substantial reduction" in U.S. inflation in 2023, barring another unexpected shock.

Results of Talking Down Inflation Outlook
- CFTC data from Friday showing speculators opening up their largest net short dollar positions since the middle of 2021.
- Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields were also down a tad to 3.53%

China - WOW
- First everyone pissed about Zero Covid policy
- Then, stocks excited about re-opening, Macau and Hong Kong stocks soar
- Now everyone is freaking out over the the new 100% Covid policy
- People staying indoors and worrying about getting infection, stocks retreat

More China
- Interesting the 180 degree turn over last week on Covid policy
- testing kits and medicines are running out
- Did you know? China has 138,100 hospital beds for critical care (not sure if that is significant or not)
----- Some think 1 bed for 500 people is the right number

Last China
- China celebrated the withdrawal on Tuesday of a state-mandated app used to track whether they had travelled to COVID-stricken areas
- Authorities deactivated the app at midnight on Monday
- The removal of the restrictions come ahead of Chinese New Year holidays next month, when large numbers of people are expected to travel across China to visit family for the first time in years.

Back to the BS
- Huge list of celebs are being sued for shilling Bored Ape NFTs
- A class action lawsuit, filed last week, is alleging that Yuga Labs — the company behind the wildly expensive, clout-driven Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection — conspired to inflate the worth of digital BAYC assets through a series of undisclosed celebrity endorsements, breaking a number of state and federal laws in the process.
- Among the many celebrity names are pop star Justin Bieber; rapper Calvin "Snoop Dogg" Broadus Jr.; candlemaker Gwyneth Paltrow; hitmaker Khaled Mohammad "DJ Khaled" Khaled; Madonna; tennis star Serena Williams and her husband, Reddit founder Alexis Ohanian; socialite Paris Hilton; basketball player Wardell Stephen "Steph" Curry II (who, notably, has also been named in the FTX case); comedian Kevin Hart; Alexander Pall and Andrew Taggart, the duo behind The Chainsmokers; late night menace James "Jimmy" Fallon, and several more.
- Basically the suit alleges that the celebs shilled the BAYC NFTs for payments that were not disclosed.

More Crimes
- Bahamian authorities have arrested Sam Bankman-Fried after U.S. law enforcement filed charges against the former crypto billionaire.
- Bahamas Attorney General Ryan Pinder said that the United States had filed unspecified criminal charges against Bankman-Fried and was "likely to request his extradition."
- The Justice Department is charging former FTX CEO and founder Sam Bankman-Fried with 8 different counts of wire fraud, securities fraud, and conspiracy, according to an indictment unsealed Tuesday morning.
- The indictment alleges the 30-year old and others "known and unknown" devised a scheme to defraud FTX.com customers by misappropriating their deposits to pay expenses and debts owed by trading firm Alameda Research.

Microsoft/Activision
- The Federal Trade Commission said on Thursday it has filed an antitrust case against Microsoft to challenge the software maker's attempt to acquire video game publisher Activision Blizzard.
- Both companies are confident that the deal will still go through
- Microsoft trying all sorts of maneuvers to appease

And Finally....
- GameStop said Wednesday its fiscal third quarter sales declined and its cash pile sharply dwindled, as the brick-and-mortar retailer has been working to expand its digital presence.
- Recall they have an NFT marketplace .....

420 Stocks ...

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End of year gameplan – Is a Santa Rally in the cards – or have we seen the last of that for a while?

Oil on the move – new sanctions against Russia…

The yield curve inversion is very telling.

Employment Report – Stronger than anticipated. The economy isn’t slowing enough.

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Warm Up
- Monkeys can breath a sigh of relief
- Marital Affair - just don't vaca in Indonesia
- Santa Rally or Grinch-Off?
- Employment report - not slowing enough
- Apple - On and Off of Twitter

Market Update
- November - Good Start to EOY Seasonality
- Rates down (4.25% -> 3.50% on 10YR)
- Yield Curve Inversion
- Oil Prices DOWN - even on latest Europe news of Price caps
- Overextended excitement post Powell speech - starting to fade

Economy Picking Up Steam? (October Numbers)- New orders for durable goods rose 1.1% m/m in October after increasing 0.2% in September.
- New orders for nondurable goods increased 1.0% m/m in October after increasing 0.3% in September.
- Nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- were up 0.6% m/m in October after declining 0.7% in September.
- Good news = Bad news

Yield Curve

Current Curve

Inversion

Inversion at this magnitude is tough on economy
Banks slow lending
Less money to be made by developers (traditional users of leverage)
An inverted yield curve in U.S. Treasuries has predicted every recession since 1955, with only one false signal during that time.

China
- Re-Opening or False Hope?
- Stocks - especially Hong Kong (Hang Seng) up 4.5% overnight as hope for new rules mean China relaxing
- Looks like HOPE that China is going to all of a sudden reverse all of their recent policies.

Tesla - Slowing
- Bloomberg broke a story that the electric vehicle maker is cutting its December Model Y production by 20% at its Shanghai plant.
- Of course Telsa rebutting that pretty fast
- The report also comes on the heels of a 5-10% price cut in October for TSLA's Model 3 and Model Y in China, and this ominous tweet from Elon Musk on November 30: "Trend is concerning. Fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. They are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession."
- BUT - Some buyers in the U.S. are holding off on making a purchase until January 1, when the new $7,500 tax credit kicks in. Therefore, any weakness seen in December could be made up in January as buyers look to take advantage of the incentives.

MPOX - New name and Out of Sight
- Mpox is expected to no longer be considered a public health emergency in the United States from Feb. 1, 2023, the U.S. health department said on Friday.
- The months-long declaration was meant to tackle the largest-ever outbreak of cases in the country.
- The move signals that the crisis, which led to a spate of cases mostly among men who have sex with men, has come under control and would no longer require an emergency status meant to shore up funding and tools to fight the disease.

Interested in this...
- Hoka sneakers?
--- Like walking on pillows
- Owned by? Deckers (UGG Shoes)
- DECK symbol
- Stock has held up pretty well this year

Another Stock Idea
- IBKR - was promoted in Barron's over the weekend
- The electronic brokerage firm, which offers active investors sophisticated trading tools and low commissions, recently reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.08, handily beating the consensus estimate of 96 cents. Net revenue of $847 million set a quarterly record, too, rising 18% quarter over quarter, and 30% year over year.
- Stock in good position, slightly down on year
- Multiple currencies, multiple position types in one account. Plus crypto
- Great platform for traders and investors

The Bear Says Buy
- In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Mike Wilson, the Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley predicted that the bear market in U.S. stocks could come to a conclusion early in 2023.
- Wilson cited the S&P 500’s 200-week moving average as the prime indicator. That indicator stood at 3,612 as of late October. On Nov. 30, the S&P 500 closed above the 200-week moving average for the first time since April 7. As long as the index remains above that average, stocks could recover to go as high as 4,150.
- 4,150 is a smidge higher from here - so why be bullish if that is your target?

Meanwhile - Over at Bank of America
- In a Monday analyst note, the strategists warned the benchmark index could fall as low as 3,240 points, or about 20%, from current levels if the U.S. enters a recession in coming months.

Mercedes Following Rolex with Crypto Bros
- Mercedes G-Wagon (2021) with 3,378 miles sold for $187 at auctions ($80k less that 12 months ago)
- Clubs in Miami (LIV and E11EVEN) losing out
--- Tubs filled with champagne, Massive bar tabs and crazy parties - not so much anymore

New laws in Indonesia
- Which Jail is better?
- Indonesia's parliament is expected to pass a new criminal code this month that will penalise sex outside marriage with a punishment of up to one year in jail
- The criminalisation of abortion, with the exception of rape victims, and imprisonment for "black magic", remain in the code.
- Insulting the president, a charge that can only be reported by the president, carries a maximum of three years jail time.

Biden
- Signed bill blocking U.S. railroad strike
- Sorry Unions...
- "It was tough for me but it was the right thing to do at the moment -- save jobs, to protect millions of working families from harm and disruption and to keep supply chains stable around the holidays," Biden said, adding the deal avoided "an economic catastrophe."
- The contract that will take effect with Biden's signature includes a 24% compounded pay increase over five years and five annual $1,000 lump-sum payments

Disney
- JCD nailed it - trying to reverse Florida "Don't Say Gay" blowback
- HOWEVER - A spokeswoman for Gov. Ron DeSantis called “fake news” on reports that Republican lawmakers are working on legislation to scale back a law rushed through earlier this year stripping Walt Disney World of its unique self-governing power in Central Florida.

More Florida/More Desatis? ESG in Target
- Florida will pull $2 billion from the largest asset-management firm in the world over ideological differences.
- “Whether stakeholder capitalism, or ESG standards, are being pushed by BlackRock for ideological reasons, or to develop social credit ratings, the effect is to avoid dealing with the messiness of democracy,” Patronis said.
- Republican leaders in Florida and across the country have targeted ESG ratings, which can involve considering a wide range of issues in investments, such as companies’ climate-change vulnerabilities; carbon emissions; racial inequality; product safety; supply-chain labor standards; privacy and data security; and executive compensation.

Even More Florida
- A Florida woman is accusing Kraft Heinz of misleading advertising, based on the time it takes to prepare a single-serving cup of microwavable mac and cheese.
- While the company markets its Velveeta Shells & Cheese as being "ready in 3 1/2" minutes, Amanda Ramirez says that's only the amount of time each cup needs to be microwaved — and that the actual preparation process, from stirring in water to letting the cheese sauce thicken, takes longer (she does not specify how much).
- Ramirez's legal team says that she is like many consumers who "seek to stretch their money as far as possible when buying groceries," and chose Velveeta over other similar products because of the prep time prominently promised on its label. She wouldn't have bought it "had she known the truth," they say.
- $5 million in damages sought

Russia Price Caps
- The European Union on Friday agreed on a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude, after holdout Poland gave its support, paving the way for formal approval over the weekend.
- The price cap, an idea of the Group of Seven (G7) nations, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on Dec. 5.
- BUT, big arbitrage opportunities here - PLUS Russia may just say bug off

Hydrogen Hopes
- BP chief executive Bernard Looney is betting on hydrogen to power future low-carbon businesses as the governments of major economies stump up cash to develop the fuel to decarbonise. (Doubling down they day)
- Hydrogen will have a starring role along with offshore wind, BP company sources told Reuters.
- BP has overhauled its structure to create a dedicated hydrogen division led by Felipe Arbelaez which includes 150 staff. It also made several investments in large hydrogen projects, including in Australia, Europe and Britain.

FTX - Apology Tour
- SBF is getting the nob from Bill Ackman as probably being honest
- Others putting him with players like Ponzi, Madoff and other fraudsters
- Andrew Ross Sorken (or as Fix Biz commentator called him Aaron Sorkin) had him on long interview. Painful to watch.
--- Questioning whether stupid, crook or something else entirely.

The Internet is Unusable
- Search: most requested holiday gifts 2022
- What you get is all these click bait links to stories with more links on the hot items and long list.
- What happened to a simple list?
- Have you tried to look up a recipe? - have to scroll through miles of words to get to basic recipe

And this...
- Last week Apple pulled all advertising - $100 Million/year
- Elon starts complaining about 30% usury fees and hints at new SmartPhone by Musk
- News that Apple restarted all spending this week
- Crickets on the 30% AppStore

420 Stocks ...

CLICK for list of "Pot Stocks"Stocks to watch: CGC, STZ, TLRY, CRON, MJ, NBEV

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Announcing The CTP forSP500 ETF (SPY) End of Year Warm Up - Last one for 2022 *

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Crude oil not liking the lockdowns.

Entering a new phase of COVID-19...Permanent China closure next?

November aiming to be another positive month for stocks as

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Tippers No More - Change in trend - What is happening to oil prices? - End of Year CTP working on.... - Charity Sporting Clays this week - Invited to Shoot - iPhone production snafu

Market Update - November trying for an up month - BONDS - Yields Down - Prices Up (November) - USD Down 4.5% in November - Gold Silver, perform well - But CRUDE? You see that? (Same crap today) - Hong Kong Stocks up 5% Monday

Another year coming to an end... SCROOGED?

Turkey UPDATE

Like the story Scrooge.... - Markets thinking about Ghosts of past (1930's, 1970's?), Present (Easy Fed that pivots), Future (???)

Tipping - Deflation - About 17% of Americans are tipping less due to inflation, while only 10% are tipping more, according to a recent survey of more than 1,000 people by PlayUSA. More than half, or 54%, also said they feel pressure to leave a tip when checking out on an iPad. - While tipping at full-service restaurants has held steady, averaging 19.6%, according to Toast's most recent restaurant trends report, tips at quick-service restaurants fell slightly from a year ago to 16.8%. - When it comes to takeout, customers are tipping even less — now down to 14.4%, on average, after it climbed earlier in the pandemic, Toast found.

More-Flation - The average American household is spending $433 more a month to buy the same goods and services it did a year ago, according to a Moody's Analytics analysis of October inflation data. - Mortgage rates have doubled from a year ago - Each $100,000 costs 3% more annually ($3,000 per $100k or $250 per month)

Headline Weekend Through Monday - TECH WARS - Apple (AAPL) -3% extends its decline after gapping below the 50-DMA on production concerns related to the iPhone in China... recent leg lower seems to reflect Elon Musk 'waging war' on Apple's 30% app store fee - ALSO, Elon talking about possibly inventing alternative phone if Twitter kicked out of App Store --- Phil Schiller, a longtime Apple marketing executive who leads its App Store, last week deleted his Twitter account. Schiller's move came after Musk complained on Twitter about Apple's fees, saying they're effectively "a hidden 30% tax on the internet."

Black Friday - The Winner? - Amazon or Walmart? Who got the game? - Searches for Black Friday discounts on Walmart surged 386% year over year, leapfrogging rival retailer Amazon, which last year ranked first in Captify's survey of most searched retailers on Black Friday. This year, the world's largest e-commerce company ranked fourth, behind Target and Kohl's, respectively. - Black Friday is expected to pull in $9 billion in online sales, a 1% jump from the previous year, according to Adobe.

OH - AND - Thanksgiving Day online spending hit a record of $5.29 billion, an increase of 2.9% year over year, according to Adobe, which tracks sales on retailers' websites. Typically, shoppers spend about $2 billion to $3 billion online in a day, according to Adobe. - That increase was driven by demand, not inflation, according to Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe. Online sales haven't been driven higher by inflation like store sales, since e-commerce is largely made up of electronics, apparel and other durables that have stayed stable in price or declined compared to groceries, he said.

Crypto News - There is NO GOOD NEWS - Brendan Blumer, known as one of the creators of the EOS blockchain and one of the richest people in the crypto space,

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Companies are announcing layoffs and market cheer!

Crypto craziness - FTX ripples throughout industry.

End of year game plan - CTP update and more.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Big Moves - Bets are For Less Hawkish - Nasty Action in Bitcoin/Coins - Weird moves at Disney - Crazy Weather in NorthEast - Reminder of the CTP going on right now....

Market Update - Short Week, Wednesday Big Day ECO (FOMC Minutes) - Headwinds keep piling on - nothing recedes these days - OPEC news of production increase - then denial - Crypto Saga continues

SERVER UPDATE - ALL MOVED, CHECKED ALL GOOD TO GO

Turkey Recipe? Dinner Plans? - PICKLE FEST

Weather Update - Snowfall of more than 6 feet in western New York state prompted local officials on Saturday to further restrict road travel and forced airlines to cancel flights in the Buffalo area, just ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday week.

Twitter/MUSK - Not talking about - gotten too weird - Although TSLA at 2-year low price - Any predictions about Twitter's future? - Oh, and Trump snubs Twitter after Reinstatement (By Poll?)

World Cup - Alcohol BANNED from stadium last minute - World Jewish Congress said meals cooked to Jewish dietary rules and public prayer have been banned during tournament - It is all about $$$$ - More than ever....

Why More Nuclear Talk? - What is with this? - The head of Russia's state-run atomic energy agency, Rosatom, warned on Monday there was a risk of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest, following renewed shelling over the weekend.

Oil Prices - Oil prices dropped to trade near two-month lows on Monday - Dropped to $75.25 for a moment then was bought on recent double-bottom - "Apart from the weakened demand outlook due to China's COVID curbs, a rebound in the U.S. dollar today is also a bearish factor for oil prices," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst. - More importantly, OPEC is discussing increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day

OPEC Reversal - OPEC news that they are going to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day. - Quickly reverses after oil prices plunge OPEC MOVES Now to China - COVID deaths - first time being reported in a while - Lockdowns - roaming - Numbers climbing and big concern that this is going to keep the slowdown around the globe - Inflationary - to a degree and deflationary at the same time - China held their interest rates steady - they are having a tough time

Over to South Korea - South Korea's exports for the first 20 days of November shrank 16.7% from the same period a year ago, dragged down by weak demand for chips and from China, customs agency data showed on Monday. - The country's imports fell 5.5%, bringing the trade balance to a $4.42 billion deficit, on track for an eighth straight month in the red. - Shipments to China dropped 28.3%, while those to the United States and European Union were up 11.0% and down 1.5%, respectively. - By product, sales of semiconductors fell 29.4% and wireless communication devices lost 20.6%, but those of cars and petroleum products gained 28.6% and 16.1% each. ---- Remember the Chip shortage? Peak Oil? Note those kind of events.......

Not What You Want - Philips , which has been struggling with a major recall of ventilators, on Monday flagged further problems with some machines it has previously replaced - The FDA said the company had notified it that the sound abatement foam could come loose in some refurbished models, "lowering the inspiratory pressure". - In addition, trace amounts of particulate matter were found in air pathways of some reworked ventilator...

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What is happening in the "de-fi" world. Looks more like a scene from Caligula than a trading exchange.

We are allowing children to play with matches - who is really the stupid one?

Everyone is "F" ing everyone.

Bombs flying - rumors and reality.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Hey - What happened to the Red Wave? ---- Everything is gamed... - Crypto meltdown - just one week and then... - We are not talking about Musk or Twitter - Sick of the topics - New Tax In Mass - Greed - The Favorite Sport of Americans (and the world)

Market Update - HUGE YUGE Rally - One Two Punch - Inflatio0n and gridlock hopes ---- More Rally on light PPI and Manufacturing prices - - Short Squeeze too - offsided flip-flop - Yields drop, USD drops - Market FLY - China supposedly easing up on COVID restrictions again and ..... helping real estate market - Biden's College Loan Forgiveness Program shot down - DXY down 3.5% last 5 days. 10-Year under 4%

You know what is going on? - Asexual Finance - - Everyone is just creating things out of nothing - screwing each other and themselves - - One big "F" Job that yields nothing - - Lesson learned with FTX - don't kids matches unless you want them to start a fire. ---- OH and massive amount of losses --- It is the NON-Boomers that are screwing this all up

BOMBS - Wartime News - Seems that market freaked out at 2PM Tuesday - Reports that 2 missiles veered off course and hit town in Poland - Then there was reports that Ukraine shot down and pieces hit areas in Poland - Then reports that all unconfirmed - markets rally back

Massachusetts Tax - The new law creates a 4% tax on annual income above $1 million, on top of the state's current 5% flat income tax, aiming to fund public education, roads, bridges and public transportation. - How many will be leaving? - Where will they be going to?

Gridlock? - What happened to the Red Wave? - House will ensure more gridlock than we have now - even though Dems have majority in Senate - What does the Biden scramble look like now through inauguration of new leaders?

FTX meltdown - Whatever we know - I don't think we know anything - Days to take down 2nd largest Crypto exchange (without any conspiracy additives) - Bitcoin/Ether down 20% last week - crypto markets in disarray - It is NOT the coin - it is the little greedy bitches that have been allowed to play in this environment with no regulation - All of a sudden there is odd money movements/withdrawals. What about the transparency???? - Now potentially $$ missing ($1billion) - Mysterious outflows and: --- High-net-worth users are paying astronomical prices for NFTs on FTX at a time when the broader crypto and digital collectible market has nosedived. In one case, a collectible that traded near $9 three weeks ago sold for $10 million on Friday. Another NFT that was similarly priced a month ago, sold for $888,888.88 this week. (Somehow a way to move $$$ from FTX?)

Retailers Reporting this week - Tuesday: Home Depot and Walmart (before the bell) - Wednesday: Lowe's and Target (before the bell) - Thursday: Macy's and Kohl's (before the bell); Gap (after the bell)

Oil - OPEC Cuts Growth Forecast - Trims demand growth in 2022, 2023 by 100,000 bpd - Says global supply was in surplus in second, third quarters - OPEC Oct. output fell by 210,000 bpd, exceeding pledged cut - Saudi Arabia reports smaller drop in its October output - Oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd), or 2.6%, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report, down 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

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Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility.

The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming.

Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go?

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Election Day! Lots looking for split govy! - Glitch on the server - last CTP may be a problem - All about Musk - All of the time - gotta keep relevant - Employment Report - Can't stop never gonna stop! - New Server Up - lots of dev time on this migration...

Market Update - Starting out November on the wrong foot - Who Will run in 2024? Markets trying to sniff out the playbook - China's stock market rally hard! - False hopes? - Incredible - FTX now needs bailout

IMPORTANT UPDATE - TrendTracker: S&P 500 earnings are up 2.2% yr/yr in Q3, but they are now expected to fall 1% in Q4 - FactSet - "On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 9.1%. By September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 3.9%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -1.0%." - Earnings are currently expected to return to yr/yr growth in Q1 and accelerate throughout 2023, coming in at ~5% growth for the year (down from nearly 10% not long ago). - Those estimates still seem relatively optimistic/stale if the economy continues to soften as many economists expect. - Estimates for 2023 seem likely to come down further when companies will give initial guidance for the year with Q4 results in Jan-March. Earnings Slowing BUT...... - According to the historical trends during years of mid-term elections - Gridlock on Capitol Hill would be supportive of risk assets. Being forced to compromise serves to moderate the more extreme inclinations of each party, providing a more stable policy backdrop for investors. -- -The data supports this. - US equities have averaged annual gains of 12.9% when a president has had to contend with a split Congress. - This compares with a more modest increase of 6.7% when a Democratic president has controlled both chambers. Stock Trends - Mid-Terms Twitter Chaos - $8 Blue Checkmark - what is the point? - Flip flop - now $8 checkmark waits until after the election - Job cuts - massive headcount reduction (3,600- then a reversal a few days later - Blue Checkmark warning - imposters will get banned for life ---- So fake news and hate is okay, but just don't pose as Elon? What a joke! - Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody. - Advertisers pulling out "temporarily" - - Musk uses it as a great way to make excuse for layoffs - even though layoffs were happening before the advertiser embargo

Crypto - And that was that - FTX has liquidity crunch after massive withdrawals - Sam Bankman Fried panics and sells all to Binance - Binance will back all transactions - Remember Fried stepped in on some of the "stablecoin" deals hoping that they could save them - Fried has been called the last resort for many crypto - the new JP Morgan -- - The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout - Major coins were getting crushed early in the day Tuesday on the liquidity scare - - > Rally with this news - - Seems that this whole industry has been build on hope and greed rather than any substantive math/finance

Apple - Finally Succumbs - Taiwan's Foxconn, Apple Inc's biggest iPhone maker, said on Monday it was working to resume full production at a major plant in China's Zhengzhou as soon as possible that has been hit by COVID-19 curbs,

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Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility.

The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming.

Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go?

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Landmines everywhere - it is a warzone when it comes to markets.

October - one of the best in history - who would have thought?

Talks of a windfall tax - say it ain't so Joe!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - It is a financial war-zone out there! - For all the market timers who got out on the breakdown this month - HOW IT GOING? - Fed meeting this week - The Media all a flurry (Obsessed) - Lockdowns in China AGAIN (Also reports that COVID lab accident released from Wuhan) - Big end of Week- FOMC decision and employment numbers - What are they smoking in the UK?

Market Update - BIG-TOBER - DJIA up 14% - Crazy Numbers - Apple has one of its biggest days ever, Amazon, one of its worst - FANG Stock drop by record - Windfall Tax Update (Why not charge Apple? Pfizer?) - New Term Out - From Pivot to.....

How Good Of A Month? - DJIA Up 14%, Financials Up 11%, LONG Treasuries DOWN 6%, SMALL Caps Up 12%, CHINA down 12%, Oil up 8% - VALUE still outpacing Growth - YTD -11% vs -27%

Good Idea? - JP Morgan building Rental Payment system - Says checks are still most used to pay rent today - wants to digitize - The bank is piloting a platform it created for property owners and managers that automates the invoicing and receipt of online rent payments - As a result, about 78% are still paid using old-school checks and money orders, according to JPMorgan - JPMorgan has spent the past few years working on the software, called Story, which is meant to ultimately become an all-in-one property management solution.

Of Course There Is This - Renters filed a lawsuit this week alleging that a company that makes price-setting software for apartments and nine of the nation’s biggest property managers formed a cartel to artificially inflate rents in violation of federal law. - The lawsuit was filed days after ProPublica published an investigation raising concerns that the software, sold by Texas-based RealPage, is potentially pushing rent prices above competitive levels, facilitating price-fixing, or both. - The lawsuit accused the property managers and RealPage of forming “a cartel to artificially inflate the price of and artificially decrease the supply and output of multifamily residential real estate leases from competitive levels.” - RealPage’s software uses an algorithm to churn through a trove of data each night to suggest daily prices for available rental units.

All Eyes on the Fed - Wobble baby - Fed toning down hawkish stance but still aggressively tightening = wobble - Odds are for 0.75% hike this meeting and more than 50% chance for 0.50% in December - HOWEVER, spending still robust, employment solid

Silly - Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser to Vice President of United States Jared Bernstein hit the wires at the top of the hour with: "Biden has endorsed Fed's policy pivot"

FAANG - MASSIVE LOSSES 1 - Year FAANG Social Media - Total thrashing after earnings - SNAP +6% and META +4% lifting on the Axios report that the FCC Commissioner wants to ban TikTok - According to sources: A ban would be huge for META and SNAP, but seems unlikely. Perhaps the government will force ByteDance to sell TikTok, - Didn't we go through this once before?

Brazil - All too Familiar? - Brazilian leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated President Jair Bolsonaro in a runoff election - But Bolsonao (incumbent) did not concede defeat on Sunday night - Truck drivers believed to be Bolsonaro supporters on Sunday blocked a highway in four places in the state of Mato Grosso, a major grains producer, according to the highway operator. - Brazilian markets volatile

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Directionless - markets have lost all sense of trend.

Volatility expands, 5% swings daily - not since the great financial crisis..

Earnings are out and we take a peek.

A new Closest to The Pin announced.

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Hysteria - moves widening - Future soar Tuesday overnight
U Turn after U Turn After We Turn - Feel Like Dizzy Bats
Gates are Giving Big $$$ for another Disease
ANNOUNCING - A New CTP

Market Update - What's the point? Up one Day Down the next - Lows hit last Thursday for 2022 then massive bounce (5% intraday move) - 4% 10-year is recent top? - Economics, Mixed - Earnings - beating lowered bar - Apple News - Rotten

This! - BlackRock: MO State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick announces MOSERS has pulled $500 million in state pension funds from BLK due to ESG initiatives - "At the MOSERS Board of Trustees meeting in June, the board directed staff to require BlackRock to abstain from voting proxies on behalf of the plan, due to concerns with their public statements and record of prioritizing ESG initiatives over shareholder return. BlackRock refused the Board's demand to abstain from voting the plan's proxies. As a result, MOSERS proceeded with, and has now completed, the sale of all of its equity holdings with BlackRock. The funds are now primarily managed through contracts held by NISA, a St. Louis-based investment manager."

ECONOMICS - NAHB Housing Market Index 38 vs. 44 Briefing.com consensus; prior 46 - September Industrial Production 0.4% vs. 0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.4% from -0.2% - September Capacity Utilization 80.3% vs. 79.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 80.1% from 80.0%

Goldman Says - After beating lowered earnings.... - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon cautioned Tuesday that the U.S. economy might be headed for a downturn that could make investing and business decisions more difficult. - “That environment heading into 2023 is one that you’ve got to be cautious and prepared for,” he told CNBC. - His remarks came just a few days after his counterpart at JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, also warned of looming trouble for the U.S. economy.

Wow - U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt used his first Monday on the job to announce that "almost all" tax measures announced by his predecessor would be reversed. - BTW - new Finance Minister - Kwarteng ousted after his bad move..

Bank of America Earnings - Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.81 per share, $0.03 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.78; revenues rose 7.6% year/year to $24.5 bln vs the $23.46 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - Provision for credit losses of $898 million increased $1.5 billion. Net reserve build of $378 million vs. net reserve release of $1.1 billion in Q3-21. Net charge-offs of $520 million increased 12%. Net interest income (NII)(E) up $2.7 billion, or 24%, to $13.8 billion, driven by benefits from higher interest rates, including lower premium amortization expense, and solid loan growth. - Average loan and lease balances up $114 billion, or 12%, to $1.0 trillion led by strong commercial loan growth as well as higher credit card balances.

Netflix Earnings (JCD has on Game) - Big move after hours +14% - Better sub additions - much better outlook - Taking NAZ100 futures higher

Someone getting Smart? - Germany plans to extend the life of three of the country's nuclear power plants to mid-April 2023, according to Bloomberg

American Express September Card Metrics - Reports September U.S. Consumer Card Member loans net write-off rate of 0.8% vs 0.8% prior month (0 bps change) with consumer loans 30 days past due 0.9% vs 0.

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Dvorak's prediction is looking very prescient.

Markets cannot get a break - all news is bad news.

More boneheaded moves by governments. Need to get some adults in charge here...

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Market Rally Hard – then Fade Hard
Nobel Prized awarded!
Inverse Cramer ETF Filed
IMF Poops on and Possible Party
Scare tactics? The Wealth Advisor Headlines

Market Update - Jamie Dimon – Not Bullish - DJIA hit 29,010 low on Monday - Dvorak's Prophesy - UK in Distress - Nasty action - no reprieve, no good news - NASDAQ closes at 2 year low (taking out most of pandemic move

Remember we talking last episode about "breaking things" - It looked as though there was a significant breakdown of confidence (especially in the UK) --- Dvorak Prophecy comes true - Bond market BROKE in UK - poor leadership and lack of plan - US and around the world, central bankers trying to break inflation (through recession)

Big Week - Economics: PPI, CPI, FOMC Minutes, Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, UMICH (WOW!) - PPI expected to come in at 0.3% MoM, CPI 0.2% MoM - CORE PPI expected 0.4%, CORE CPI 0.5% -- EARNINGS: BANKS start the earnings season (JPM Citi)

IMF - The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth will slow to 2.7% next year, 0.2 percentage points lower than its July forecast, and anticipates 2023 will feel like a recession for millions around the world. - "The worst is yet to come, and for many people 2023 will feel like a recession," the report said, echoing warnings from the United Nations, the World Bank and many global CEOs. - More than a third of the global economy will see two consecutive quarters of negative growth, while the three largest economies — the United States, the European Union and China — will continue to slow, the report said. - Not particularly encouraging....

NOBEL - Ben Bernanke won this year's Nobel Economics Prize on Monday for laying the foundation of how the world now manages global crises like the recent pandemic or the Great Recession of 2008 - Student of the Depression and Recessions of the Past - BUT, Did not see anything of concern during 2006, 2007, 2008 as the financial system was starting to implode - Maybe could have been worse ????

Time for Selling (Tax Loss) - Into the end of the year – time to start thinking about Tax Loss harvesting - That’s the term for selling a stock at a loss and using that to offset gains elsewhere in one’s portfolio. - ** Mutual Funds are going to be looking for losses and may be selling as Oct 31 is often associated with incentive under TRA 1986

Twitter Deal - On, Off, On, Off, On again - Musk now says he wants to buy at original price of $54.20 - Banks may face stiff losses - Lenders that also include Bank of America Corp., Barclays Plc and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. committed to provide $13 billion of debt financing for the deal. Their losses would amount to $500 million or more if the debt were to be sold now, according to Bloomberg calculations. --- Why did he decide to go through with deal? Wanted out of deposition?

More Musk – Endless Musk - Twitter to become Super-App? - On Tuesday, Musk tweeted that buying Twitter is an "accelerant to creating X, the everything app." - Super apps is a term to describe an app that often acts as a one-stop shop for all your mobile needs. For example, you might order a taxi or food via the app and at the same time do payments and messaging. This eliminates the need to have multiple apps for different functions.

Defense Stocks - A basket of five— Northrop Grumman (ticker: NOC), Lockheed Martin (LMT),

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Egotistical Narcissists as as the the Stupidity Police are not doing their job.

Chinese living in ROTTING properties

Some amazing technicals - historic in fact. WOW!

The lowdown on Pumpkin Spice latte.. Big Business!

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Egotistical Narcissists - The Stupidity Police are not doing their job - Chinese living in ROTTING properties - We have another FRAMEWORK - Sending Kamala to the DMZ line

Market Update - B A D - Things are starting to break - Confidence lost as things are breaking (Currencies) ---- Fed needs to chill - and I have a few tings to say.. - China opening up Macau (Casino stocks fly) - Technical indicators!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEXT WEEK - YOM KIPPUR - NO SHOW

Rate Update - High grade money markets >2.4% - 2 year muni bond >2.5% 3.5% - 12 month treasury >4.3% - 10-year taps 4% today - 1 year CD > 3.5%

JCD - FYI - DJIA @ 30,706 29,500 29,134!!!!

Tropical Storm/Hurricane - Storm looks nasty - in the middle of some of the bans right now

Technical as of Monday Morning (Charts) - Some very severe oversold conditions - KRI (-7) - only seen one time in recent history and that was 12/24/2019 when market bottomed - RSI all over sold - McClellan - LOW (-400) - Spearman LOW (-98) - 11 New 52 week highs -(most inverse ETFs) - VIX >30 - 447 SP500 below 200 DMA

Boneheads - Huge tax cuts in the UK apparently decided on overnight and the approval of massive debt issuance. - Do we miss Boris Johnson Yet? - More things breaking The Cable More on Brit Pound - That currency move is NOT normal and should give a cold-water-slap-upside-the-head-punch-in-the-mouth wake-up call to Team Powell. - The moves that they are making and the hard line they are shaking is a bit over the top. - Unfortunately they have a much bigger regard for themselves than then should. - In fact, it appears that Team Powell is made up a gaggle of egocentric narcissists that need to come down off their collective perch's and take a look at what is really going on and why we are seeing historic moves in some financial markets.

Sending Kamala - Vice President Kamala Harris will visit the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) separating the Koreas on Thursday in a bid to show Washington's commitment to the South's security - The DMZ visit will underscore the strength of the alliance between Seoul and Washington "in the face of any threats posed" by North Korea - Does not seem like a show of strength

FEELINGS ON THE FED (Not due to markets, due to policy) - A bunch of two-toned, zebra headed, slime-coated, pimple-farming, paramecium brain, munching-on-their-own-mucus, all suffering from PETER PAN? ENVY!!! AND - lewd, crude, rude, bag of pre-chewed food, dudes! Lying, crying, spying, prying ultra-pigs! (From the movie Pan - Robin William)

China - Rotting - A movement of home buyers around China who have moved into what they call "rotting" apartments, either to pressure developers and authorities to complete them or out of financial necessity. - Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute estimated in July that stalled projects accounted for 3.85% of China's housing market in the first half of 2022, equivalent to an area of 231 million square metres.

Can't Even - Pumpkin spice latte (PSL) - PSL industry was worth >$500 million - - Starbucks has sold more than 600 million since inception

PSA - Don't cook your chicken in NyQuil - FDA now warning about this new TikTok challenge - Possible that brands are behind this insanity? - A number of videos challenged people to cook chicken in NyQuil, which contains acetaminophen,

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Auntie Em! It's a twister! Rate hikes that is - everyone is getting hysterical.

FedEx puts a crimp in the outlook.

Stranger Danger - new Monkeypox advice in China

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So Sorry - The Killers concert update - Biden making some big announcements - Announcing the winner of the CTP for Bed bath and Beyond - Stranger Danger - FedEx Warning shakes markets - New sport? Nose Biting? ---- Has done something no one has ever done before!

Market Update - Big day coming - Fed Rate Decision - UGLY week - CPI (Inflation) ruined the party --- 5.5% DOWN for NASDAQ last Tuesday. Markets off big last week - Oil dropping on concerns that China COVID -ZERO and global slowdown - Goldman Cutting US Growth Forecast

RATE HYSTERIA! - 2PM, 2:30PM - Wednesday - 20% probability of 1% and 100% of 75%| - 10Yr spiked again - now over the top of June peak - - Seems that markets and news hysterical - yet inflation peaking..... - If any slight layoff by Powell , markets going to gush higher (at least temporarily) - - Seems like 0.75% priced in - so not sure where we are going from here (pundits again looking for downside after they switched recently)

Rate Update - High grade money markets >2% - 2 year muni bond >2.5% - 12 month treasury >4% - 1 year CD > 2.7%

JCD - FYI - DJIA @ 30,706

President Biden - Declaration! - The Pandemic Is Over! --- "We still have a problem with COVID. We're still doing a lotta work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one's wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape. And so I think it's changing." - Doesn't the WHO have the responsibility of declaring?

Biden Again - - Inflation just moved up an inch in the last reading - Trying his best to tamp down the concerns out there - Biden team out if force on the idea that gas and oil prices are down big - talking it up - Oil and gas are all about China - not US

Biden - So happy - Gas prices plummeting Gas Prices Maybe not so Happy - US household net worth declined in the second quarter by the most on record as aggressive action by the Fed to tame rapid inflation sent stocks plunging

MonekeyPox Back in the News - Seems that spread in Europe is slowing down significantly - China gets first case and now they are saying: Don't touch foreigners to reduce monkeypox risk - "To prevent possible monkeypox infection and as part of our healthy lifestyle, it is recommended that 1) you do not have direct skin-to-skin contact with foreigners," Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention posted on his official Weibo page on Saturday. - 2) Wu also called for people to avoid such contact with people who have been abroad within the past three weeks as well as all "strangers", as he cautioned vigilance. (STRANGER DANGER)

What is Up ? FedEx Warning - FedEx on Thursday withdrew its full-year guidance and announced significant cost-cutting measures following what it called softness in global volume of shipments. - "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the U.S.," CEO Raj Subramaniam said in the release. "While this performance is disappointing, we are aggressively accelerating cost reduction efforts." - Earnings per share: $3.44, adjusted vs. $5.14 expected - - - -- Revenue: $23.2 billion vs. $23.59 billion expected - Prompted in interview with Cramer: Is the economy headed for Worldwide recession??? ------- “I think so,” Subramaniam said. “These numbers, they don’t portend well.” “We are a reflection of everybody else’s business,

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Put away the white pants - box up the white shoes - summer is over.

Deeply Oversold - Quick bounce potential is high (Happened last week and today already 3 times)

New study on talking to plants

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Back from NOLA - FSU/LSU game - unreal weekend - Putting away the White pants and shoes - post Labor Day - Europe is in trouble - Russia playing hardball with energy flows - Germany rethinking Nuclear energy - New study on talking to plants - Reminder of CTP that is closing for entries Friday

Market Update - Deeply Oversold - Bounce Potential High (Happened last week and today already) --- Seems that 3.3% 10Yr is near-term cap? - QQQ bounce from low in June to high 23%, now eroded to 8% - Turmoil at BBBY - China lockdowns and OPEC production cuts - Apple Sept 7th launch event

BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADINGVIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView!

RSS Feed - FIXED

Yields - 10yr Treasury at June Highs - 3.342%

Market/Sectors Update Sectors - YTD When the going get tough - Throw out all Climate concerns - Germany keeping 2 nuclear power plans active (Uranium URA?) - Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear plants available for power production as part of a reserve scheme recommended by power transmission grid operators (TSOs) that stress-tested electricity supply - Economy minister Robert Habeck said the risks of nuclear technology mandated holding on to the exit plan but restrictions in Russian gas deliveries justified the reserve measure.

Oil Production - OPEC cannot seem to make up its mind - a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers on Monday agreed on a small output cut from next month, surprising energy markets at a time of considerable turmoil. - OPEC and non-OPEC partners, an influential energy alliance known as OPEC+, decided to cut production targets by about 100,000 barrels per day from October. - Oil spiked then dropped after the news (Economic realities and China lockdowns)

Russia Playing Hardball - On Friday, Russian energy supplier Gazprom said it would not resume its supply of natural gas to Germany through the key Nord Stream 1 pipeline, blaming a malfunctioning turbine. - The euro fell below 99 cents for the first time in 20 years Monday, after Russia said it would shut off its main gas supply pipeline to Europe indefinitely. - The EU's common currency was trading around 0.9915 versus the dollar by 1:00 p.m. London time (8:00 a.m. ET), having climbed off lows of $0.9881 hit earlier in the day. - The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, also breached a fresh two-decade high as the British pound slid on fears over energy supply and European economic growth.

Last Item - Looking at European Gas prices - just to be clear - Lower gas flows from Russia ahead of and following its February invasion of Ukraine have already pushed up European prices by nearly 400% over the past year, sending electricity costs soaring. Crude Oil Futures California Rolling Blackouts? - Highest rates since 2020 - Potential for rotating outages to conserve --- How does this work for Electric cars? Supposed to be cheaper alternative

China Lockdown - Some districts of China's southern tech hub Shenzhen extended curbs on public activities, dining out and entertainment venues on Friday, but city officials stopped short of a full lockdown - Most of Shenzhen's nearly 18 million residents are now under COVID controls amid the city's most serious outbreak since spring.

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PAIN - that is what he said.... PAIN!

RSS feed gone wild. It looks like it is fixed.

Markets held up nicely - but end of the month, low volume and just trader exhaustion seemed to win over.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Worst Day in months - Powell invokes Volker - PAIN AHEAD - $10,000 off Student Debt Sale - RSS Feed - something not right with DHUnplugged - Pushed show on Fedd 5 times last week. - Need a CTP Stock! - Inflation HOT is baseball Card Market!

Market Update - HOT MESS - Now What? - - Europe poised for more problems with Russian Oil - ECB next in line to start hiking rates - EVs Stil hot News - Ford up - 50-Day MA - S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, touch and bump Monday

BIG ANNOUNCEMENT - TEASE REALLY - TriggerCharts Indicators - New Distribution, New platforms..! NOW TRADING VIEW.. Launch 1st week of September - Tradestation, eSignal, TradingView!

RSS Feed Gone Wild! - Pushed 3-4 DHUnplugged. Something with Site code - Maybe... We shall see tonight.

Salesforce Story - Credit Card expiration - thought I updated - Billing due 8/14 - 8/29 get a threatening email and warning about pulling forward contract and lock out - 8/29 - LOCKED OUT - can't even get to the billing area to see what is up... - Threatening email - no direct way to contact --- Your account with Salesforce has an outstanding balance of USD*. If this balance is not settled by 08-Sep-2022, your account will be placed with a third party collection agency. If payment is received by Salesforce after this date, payment for the full contract value will be required before your account can be reactivated and for any and all collection costs incurred by Salesforce including the fee for placing the account. We are obligated to pursue the entire unpaid contract value of any and all agreements between Salesforce and Horowitz & Co.

We would like to avoid these measures; however, we feel we have no choice but to take these steps.

Salesforce will have no obligation to maintain or provide your data after the time specified in your Master Subscription Agreement, and will thereafter delete or destroy all copies of your data in our systems. You may request a data export within the time period set forth in the Documentation by logging a support case. Start with Inflation Item - "Gasoline futures have fallen to new trend lows this morning, now printing lowest levels in over 6 months" - Down 32% from high Gas Futures Technicals ! - 50 DMA - holds for all major indices after Friday's breakdown - 200-day massive resistance - - Institutional - 1st line of support (50 Day) ---- But 50 Day below 200 day - Not good set up ---- One good thing - 50 Day slightly rising - End of Month, light volume, big sell-off - Needs to Hold and rebound if any chance

Powell Speech - Says the word Pain - Invokes comment about Volker - Essentially walks back any thought that they are going to slow the rate hikes

White House Prepping - Says they think employment numbers may be soft on Friday - or softening... - On that note - SNAP laying off 20% of staff - Remember all those calls for : "Nobody teaches finance in school?" - THIS IS WHY WE GET COMPANIES THAT THIK THEY CN RUN WITH CRAP FINANCIALS

Jackson Hole Reality Check - Awakening - Central banks spent decades building their credibility on inflation fighting skills and losing this battle could shake the foundations of modern monetary policy. - - "The longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power." (ECB Member) - "Even if we enter a recession,

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Update3 - Push to Podcast Apps

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Up, Up and Away. When everyone thinks there is more downside, this happens.

China economics are weak and probably getting weaker.

Peter Schiff and others warn about what will come next...

Dire predictions and buoyant markets - with a side of short squeeze.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - ESG Finally Getting a Probe - Big Week for Retail (Earnings) - Peloton - Restructuring and changing prices again - Can't keep this market down - well, at least for a while..

Market Update - Fed continues to press for higher rates - China issues a surprise rate cut (minor) - The Bear Bounce? New Rally - Lows are In? - China's Pain is Oil's Pain - OH - The Squeeze is On! - But Still seeing Dire Warnings about what is to come... - Musk comes Tweets he is buying.. At 8:01PM

COMING UP THIS WEEK ON TDI Podcast - Peter Schiff

Big Calls - Peter Schiff doesn’t think the Fed can beat the current inflationary pressure America is dealing with today. “Not only can’t the Fed win a fight against inflation without causing a recession, it can’t do so without causing a far worse financial crisis than the one we had in 2008,” - “Worse still, a war against inflation can’t be won if there are any bailouts or stimulus to ease the pain,”

Where to begin this week?https://www.dhunplugged.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/CAPE_20220816.jpg

Now this is interesting - Market Valuation... CAPE RATIO The SQUEEEEEZE - Here we go again - low-quality, High Short-interest stocks getting the love - BBBY up 200% past couple weeks, 65% TODAY! - Party City up 27% TODAY - FUBOTV, Blue Apron, My Size, ThredUp, Cruise Lines (after secondary offerings), GameStop on the move too.... - What does this mean?

Markets - So many overbought readings - Multi-Month Highs - Valuations? - What is the great spirit that is moving things - why so bullish all of a sudden?

ELON! - 8:01PM (After hours markets closed) - - "Also, I’m buying Manchester United ur welcome" --- Is he serious? News reports are unclear - no one knows for sure what this is all about

Earnings - Home Depot - beats (significantly lowered expectations - low bar) ---- Earnings Growth 8% YoY, Revenue 6.5% ------Higher product prices drove average spending per transaction up more than 9%, even as customer transactions at its stores dropped 3%, helping the company record its highest ever quarterly sales and earnings. - Walmart - same story as Home Depot (management did not downgrade any further this time) ---- Earnings - slightly lower than 1-year ago, revenue growth 8.4% - Shoppers are shopping, looks like they are buying less higher priced products is the story

WMT Beat Lowered Earnings Estimates WMT Estimates Housing - Stinks - The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped 6 points to 49 this month, its eighth straight monthly decline. - The index has not been in negative territory since a very brief plunge at the start of the Covid pandemic. Before that, it hadn't been negative since June 2014. - Regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence in the Northeast fell 9 points to 56, and dropped 3 points in the Midwest to 49. In the South it fell 7 points to 63, and in the West, where home prices are highest, it declined 11 points to 51. - The biggest hurdle for buyers right now is affordability

Peleton - Peloton Interactive Inc said on Friday it would cut jobs, shut stores and raise prices on its exercise equipment including treadmills and top-end bikes as it undertakes a company-wide revamp to shore up its revenue and improve cash flow. - Shifting final mile delivery to third-party logistics provi...

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Markets just don't know how to read the current backdrop - so many crosscurrents.

Fed speakers continue to press on with their high hopes for higher rates - walking it back

Buyback frenzy coming?

Softbank - horrible, simply horrible.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - 8/8 - Happy Anniversary Mimi! - How You Like a Nice Warm Short Squeeze? ---- Highest Short Interest Getting BID BIGLY | - OLD MEME Stocks on fire - then cool off - Big YUGE moves on last week's picks - Recession? Employment Says: We Ain't Got No Stinking Recession

Market Update - Credit Expanding - eating through savings? - Charts making the rounds.... - CPI coming Wednesday, PPI Thursday - Amazon acquiring this company - need delve deep - An interesting acquisition announcement today.. - Layoffs in Techland AND expense cuts

Employment - HOT! - 500k+ added to the payrolls. - 3.5% Unemp Rate - Average Hourly Earnings +5% !

Post Employment Numbers - WALK IT BACK - FED parade of backwalkers continue - that is what they are Backward Walkers - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday she supports the central bank's recent big interest rate increases and thinks they are likely to continue until inflation is subdued. -- "My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way" ---- Very consistent with all of the other Backward-Walking Fed speakers

Spending Bill - Summary: The climate, healthcare and tax bill passed by the U.S. Senate over the weekend could shave corporate earnings slightly and make companies pull forward their share repurchase plans, while giving a boost to some sectors like electric vehicle makers, biofuel and solar energy - The $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act bill would impose a new excise tax on stock buybacks and a minimum 15% tax on corporations. - "The number one thing that stands out is that you're going to see an acceleration of buybacks before the end of this year," said Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member of New York-based Great Hill Capital. "Companies would rather not pay that tax ... They have this window, and you can be assured they're going to take advantage of it."

Pfizer - New Income Source - Pfizer Inc will buy blood disorder drugmaker Global Blood Therapeutics in a $5.4 billion deal, as it looks to boost its pipeline to combat a potential slowdown in COVID product demand that analysts anticipate from falling cases. - GBT makes Oxbryta which was first approved in 2019 to treat sickle cell disease among patients aged 12 years or older. - Sickle Cell

Tech layoffs - Several companies have either discussed layoffs or stop hire mandates - Microsoft is asking managers to reduce employee expenses on business travel and outside training, according to WSJ

Credit Card Debt - Americans have opened 233 million credit card accounts since April, the largest increase since 2008. - Credit card debt is up 13% since April, the largest increase since 2001. - Total credit card debt is set to cross $1 trillion for the first time ever. - "Is the bubble is expanding?" - The Kobeissi Letter

HOT Chart - Everyone is doing these.... - Comparing 2006-2009 to today (markets) Dreaded DJIA Chart Another one.... Another One Berkshire - good and bad - Operating earnings - It marked a 38.8% increase from the same quarter a year ago. - However, the company posted a $53 billion loss on its investments during the quarter. ----- Buffet again asked investors to not focus on the quarterly fluctuations in its equity investments. - - "The amount of investment gains/losses in any given ...

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Markets are getting a bit crazy to the upside now... Clearly the short squeeze gang is on the prowl.

Bifurcation - rates separating from inflation concerns.

Global economies are getting worse as higher costs are really crimping consumers. A hard look at what is happening around the world.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Biden had COVID again (How does that happen actually?) - Market KRI +4 (3 days with cluster formation) - A GIGANTIC walk-back by the Fed - More earnings this week - winners and losers - STONKS - Say it ... STONKS

Market Update - JUMPIN' July - big finish| - On not so great news... GDP -0.9% - back to back negative quarters. - China looking bleak - could mean more stimulative measures? - Hong Kong GDP shrank - German manufacturing - you guessed it.... - Home prices in Australia - whooops... ----- Fed walking it back - sending out the DOVES to speak HAWKISH

Weird Chart - Odd Curve Odd Chart ABOVE - WHY? - Expectations are that we are near or in a recession - Further expectations that the Fed will raise then have to cut - sometime perhaps in 2023 - Bond being bought - Recession fears outweigh rate hike fears - US still bringing in foreign money (safety play) - NO CONFIDENCE IN ADMINISTRATION

Let's look at Global ECO - Hong Kong's economy contracted 1.4% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, advance government data showed on Monday, as exports and investments remained sluggish, and COVID-19 weighed on a wide range of economic activity. - Germany's manufacturing sector contracted in July for the first time in over two years, hurt by a deepening slump in new orders that darkens the outlook for Europe's largest economy - - - S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 49.3 from 52.0 in June - Australian home prices slid for a third month in July and the pace quickened as Sydney suffered its worst decline in almost 40 years amid rising borrowing costs and a cost-of-living crisis. (Prices were still 8.0% higher for the year reflecting huge gains made over 2021 and early 2022.) - China's factory activity contracted unexpectedly in July after bouncing back from COVID-19 lockdowns in the prior month, as fresh virus flare-ups and a darkening global outlook weighed on demand, an official survey showed. - - - The official manufacturing purchasing managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49 in July, down from 50.2 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday. - Pakistan imports fell by more than a third in July after a ban on non-essentials, the finance minister said on Sunday, adding the improved trade situation will reduce pressure on the struggling rupee. - - - July imports fell to $5 billion, down 35% from June's record monthly high of $7.7 billion -- South Korea's consumer inflation sped up to a nearly 24-year high in July

Meanwhile - US Central Bank DOVE - Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the Fed had more work to do in trying to control price increases. - “I’m surprised by markets’ interpretation,” Mr. Kashkari said in an interview. “The committee is united in our determination to get inflation back down to 2 percent, and I think we’re going to continue to do what we need to do until we are convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2 percent — and we are a long way away from that.” - ALSO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting FOMC member) says inflation is not going to come down quickly; she is seeing "little signs" of progress on inflation; says she must see convincing evidence...

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Another World Health Emergency.

A recession by any other name.

Enough of Mr. Musk already - what else could there be anyway?

Earnings and Eco coming hot and heavy.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Better vibe - markets are getting more comfortable ? - Biden has a case of Vid - MonkeyPox - Update from WHO - Are we there yet - Peak Musk ? - Recession - "Not Inevitable" - 10yr Yield 2.78%!

Market Update - Big week for earnings and ECO - HUGE WEEK - Tech earnings in the spotlight - watch ad biz - Markets having a great month - Fed tomorrow can change that - but odds are they stay the course - IMF Downgrade and a remarkable housing number - BIG MOVE AFTER HOURS - MSFT, GOOG Miss - but commentary about strong demand overshadows slowdown - Chipotle moves higher on commentary about potejtial for MORE price hikes

REMEMBER: Closest to the Pin - get your entry in!!

BIG WEEK - A Really Big Week - This week something like 40% of S&P 500 companies are going to report this week - GDP, PCE, Durable goods, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence.....

Great month so far - due for a bounce from really oversold conditions - Financials +5%, Tech +7.5%, Homebuilders +12% (even with drop in NAHB and housing market) Consumer Disc +12%, Utilities -0.20%, Bitcoin +17% (Gold and Silver DOWN)

Rate Odds - Wednesday at 2PM - 77.5% of a 0.75% rate hike, 22.5% for 1.00% hike - ZERO PERCENT PROBABILITY for 0.50%

Case Shiller Home Prices - May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 20.5% vs. 20.8% consensus; prior 21.2%

Not Inevitable - Still trying to stick this down our throats - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that U.S. economic growth is slowing and acknowledged there was the risk of a recession, but she said a downturn was not inevitable.

BUT: - IMF's World Economic Outlook revised down; risks to the outlook 'overwhelmingly' to the downside - The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. - Lower growth earlier this year, reduced household purchasing power, and tighter monetary policy drove a downward revision of 1.4 percentage points in the United States. - In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers. - And in Europe, significant downgrades reflect spillovers from the war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy. - In 2023, disinflationary monetary policy is expected to bite, with global output growing by just 2.9 percent. - The risks to the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside.

AND............... - CNBC Fed Survey shows 55% probability of recession over the next 12 months; expects Fed to start cutting rates next year

But, Then There is This - White House puts out a blog - "How Do Economists Determine Whether the Economy Is in a Recession? " - What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data,

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Good news! Powell and Clarida cleared of any wrongdoing. That was a close one!

Markets starting to rethink the doom and gloom? Earnings season colliding with rate hike worries.

Mystery Chart - impressive run.

Uber - terrible - not going to change their ways.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Mystery Chart - It is UP this year! - President Biden - No Headway during Saudi Trip - Saying goodbye to Ivana Trump - Heat Waves - How is your weather?

Market Update - Reversal Alert - 0.75% < 1.00% new base and markets get excited --- If you think its a rally but it's not - It's Chiffon? (Commercial from the 70's) ---- Its not nice to fool mother nature - Bank Earnings - mixed bag. Hard to interpret due to loan loss provisions - Short Squeeze / rebalance ahead of earnings - UBER - disgusting practices - China is easing some rules - money available - How much more badder does the news have to get? - Yield Curve very inverted..... 2 year higher than 30 year... - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy and the highest cash levels since 2001.

Announcing a new Closest to the Pin!

Starting with Peak Pessimism - Investors slashed their exposure to risk assets to levels not seen even during the global financial crisis in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook, according to Bank of America Corp.’s monthly fund manager survey. - A net 58% of fund managers said they’re taking lower than normal risks, a record that surpassed the survey’s global financial crisis levels. - Global growth and profit expectations sank to an all-time low, while recession expectations were at their highest since the pandemic-fueled slowdown in May 2020 - C A P I T U L A T I O N -- - They are saying...

Oil (2) - Oil prices near $96 $94 $99 - Bounced off support and USD weakens

Coinage - Big weekend for coins - Bitcoin. ETH and others moving, 10, 20+% --- Story over weekend that Coinbase shutting down affiliate programs ---- Wild speculation that COIN could be next to be under financial pressure ----- Short Squeeze getting out of positions - why the weekend rally?

Bank Earnings - No use in trying to look at headline beats/misses - Loan loss provisions down big then up big - over 1 year means that comparisons all screwed up - Generally major banks looking pretty good still - NIM good and revenues looking healthy - Concerns over economic slowdown and bad debt - co - Could be they overshot to downside - Goldman, Morgan look good - not much bad to say right now.

Builder Confidence - Another story all together - We know from Redfin - prices coming down, existing homes flooding markets, sells getting worried - July NAHB Housing Market Index 55vs. 66 Briefing.com consensus; prior 67 - Builders confidence - see below - needs some discussion NAHB Mystery Chart - This stock is up this year - Well known, in DJIA - TECH! - Laggard for years... - Earnings out last night - stock not doing so good Mystery Chart More Stocks... - Single Stock ETF - Interesting concept - but not clear who this benefits. - Fees added to stocks that can be bought at low cost - Probably less volume and liquidity than the stock itself

Netflix - After several quarters of horrible performance (company and stock) company about to report July 19 - Could there be a gold mine in the advertising side? - Teamed up with Microsoft - SIDEBAR: Heard someone talking about team ups/projects with MSFT - WHY? Because they are neutral and can be trusted as partner when building. (When did that happen?)

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Oil taking a leg lower....

All eyes on CPI data and earnings this week

Home prices are on the chopping block..

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Earnings season begins this week - Twitter Saga continues - or comes to an end? - Euro hits parity - Abortion pill companies heating up

Market Update - Oil Crushed - down 20% since recent high - German consumer confidence - historic lows - IMF cuts its growth forecast for US to 2.3% from 2.9% - CPI data tomorrow - everyone bracing for a big number - VIX near 27 - not too high considering

Oil - Oil prices near $96 $94 (looks like $93 support line - next stop if cannot hold) - Airlines Up, Cruise lines up (could be some short covering into earnings and due to oil prices)

Robot Fish - Robot fish that "eat" microplastics may one day help to clean up the world's polluted oceans, says a team of Chinese scientists from Sichuan University in southwest China. - The black robot fish is irradiated by a light, helping it to flap its fins and wiggle its body. Scientists can control the fish using the light to avoid it crashing into other fish or ships. - If it is accidentally eaten by other fish, it can be digested without harm as it is made from polyurethane, which is also biocompatible, Wang said.

Housing Update - Americans are canceling deals to buy homes at the highest rate since the start of the Covid pandemic. - The share of sale agreements on existing homes canceled in June was just under 15% of all homes that went under contract, according to a new report from Redfin. - That is the highest share since early 2020, when homebuying paused immediately, albeit briefly. Cancelations were at about 11% one year ago. - Higher mortgage rates and surging inflation are causing many potential homebuyers to reconsider their purchases. - Total mortgage application volume fell 6.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Demand hit the lowest level in 22 years. - Next Shoe to drop? Housing Prices on the chopping block....?

Big Move - Electric vehicle startup Canoo (GOEV) said Tuesday Walmart has agreed to buy at least 4,500 of its upcoming electric delivery vans, in a significant win for the Texas-based vehicle maker. - Shares of Canoo were up more than 70% in premarket trading after the news was announced to trade above $4 per share. - Walmart has signed a "definitive agreement" to purchase at least 4,500, and possibly as many as 10,000, of its all-electric Lifestyle Delivery Vehicles, a small electric van designed for local delivery service, Canoo said.

Bicycles - Peloton said Tuesday that it plans to exit all of its in-house manufacturing and instead will expand its current relationship with Taiwanese manufacturer Rexon Industrial, in a bid to turn the money-losing business around. - Peloton Chief Executive Officer Barry McCarthy said this is a step for the company to simplify its supply chain and fix its cost structure, which is a top priority. - "We believe that this along with other initiatives will enable us to continue reducing the cash burden on the business and increase our flexibility," McCarty said in a statement.

Something is Wrong - London's Heathrow said it would cap the number of departing passengers at 100,000 a day this summer to try to limit traveler disruption as it struggles to cope with a rebound in demand. - Airlines at Britain's busiest airport have already responded to a government appeal to cut capacity but Heathrow said it needed them to go further. - It said airlines, baggage handlers and the airport could collectively serve 100,

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From never going to stop - to let's get busy.

Yields plummet, oil sub-$100 and recession calls are everywhere.

A great island story and much more.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - New Month - 1/2 the year gone - Crypto still gets no love - more lending firms halt withdrawals - Investors looking for every excuse to sell - THANK YOU for Donations - that was very nice of all of you who participated - Back from Bahamas - Abacos - Guess who Andrew ran into?

Market Update - Worst start for equity markets since 1970 - Worst start for bond markets EVER - Last week BBBY and RH earnings miss and outlook spook investors - Earnings season ahead - 7/14/22 JP Morgan starts it off - Watch out - mortgage demand hits the skids - WOW! Yields - WOW! Oil - Markets Go Crazy!

Recession fears - Oil drops below $100 (remember how many were bullish?) - Yields - what is happening? 10-Yr @ 2.79% - Markets - WHAT A MOVE ON High-Multiple Tech (DOCU, RBLX, ZM, AFRM) - HUGE move on tech - DJIA recovers from 600 point loss - potential bottom in the making here.

DEFLATIONARY = OIL

Oil Chart DEFLATIONARY = Yields DOWN

10 Yr Treasury Deflationary = Copper - Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months, with metals extending losses as global recession fears continue to damp the demand outlook for commodities.

Weekend - Abacos Bahamas - Guess who Andrew ran into? - Shout out to Nippers Bar on Great Guana Cay - Johnny and Janice David Solomon Tesla - Disappointing quarter of deliveries, a record month of production, and now several weeks of downtime at multiple plants. - Possible $400 million impermanent charge due to losses on Bitcoin - Tesla will halt most production on its Model Y assembly line in Shanghai for the first two weeks of July, then stop the Model 3 line for a 20-day stretch starting July 18,

MonkeyPox -WHO says not an issue - THEN, The World Health Organization says "sustained transmission" of monkeypox worldwide could see the virus begin to move into high-risk groups, such as pregnant women, immunocompromised people and children. - The virus has now been identified in more than 50 new countries outside the countries in Africa where it is endemic. - Epidemic - Pandemic?

No Respect - Grayscale, which manages the world's largest bitcoin fund, said it would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission after regulators turned down its bid to convert the investment vehicle into an exchange-traded fund. - The SEC on Wednesday rejected Grayscale's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, citing a failure by the investment manager to answer questions about concerns around market manipulation. - The watchdog is concerned investors would lack sufficient protections under the Grayscale proposal.

Korea Krypto - The nosedive in cryptocurrency markets has wiped out millions of dollars in funds stolen by North Korean hackers, four digital investigators say, threatening a key source of funding for the sanctions-stricken country and its weapons programmers. - Do you think the drop is purposeful? Working to smack bad actors? - One of North Korea’s cryptocurrency caches from a 2021 heist, which had been worth tens of millions of dollars, has lost 80% to 85% of its value in the last few weeks and is now worth less than $10 million

Mortgages - Average loan size dropping as affordability becomes a problem - "Overall purchase activity has weakened in recent months due to the quick jump in mortgage rates, high home prices, and growing economic uncertainty," said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. "The average purchase loan amount declined to $413,500,

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Big slowdown in prices of base metals and ags. Not inflationary - more like deflationary.

An update on MonkeyPox, China, Oil and John McAfee.

The ever exciting G7 meeting - what actually got done anyway?

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Script Flipping (Seems weekly) - Notice a change in pricing? (Charts) - Oil prices down a bit - no change at the pump - 10Yr moves down after Fed rate decision - Still in a range - Announcing the winner of the latest CTP - NIO

Market Update - Down UP 5-8% last week (US Markets with a SHORT WEEK) - Coming into the end of the quarter - we know what happens - So many bears right now - hard to short into all of this negativity - Commods, ags, base metals - rolling over hard (oil too) - Bond Auction - not so good. International investors stepping back - Russell Re-balance - Major Moves last week - one wild surprise - we have the chart

NEWS: - The World Health Organization on Saturday declined to declare the unprecedented monkeypox outbreak that has spread around the world a public health emergency as of now. - FWIW they also dragged their feet for months on COVID

Meanwhile - Macau launched a third round of mandatory COVID-19 testing for its more than 600,000 residents on Monday. - Casinos, while mostly deserted, are allowed to stay open, the city's government said, in a move to protect local jobs. --- How does this make sense?

And China... - Reopening schools in Bejing, Declating VICTORY! - Meanwhile, Shanghai reported no new local cases - both symptomatic and asymptomatic - for June 24, the first time the Chinese economic hub had done so since Feb. 23

Russia - Debt Default - Russia defaulted on its international bonds for the first time in more than a century - The Kremlin, which has the money to make payments thanks to oil and gas revenues, swiftly rejected the claims, and has accused the West of driving it into an artificial default - Russia's efforts to avoid what would be its first major default on international bonds since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago hit a roadblock in late May when the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) effectively blocked Moscow from making payments - What does this mean?

WEIRD REACTION? - Russia's ruble hit 52.3 to the dollar last Wednesday, an increase of roughly 1.3% on the previous day and its strongest level since May 2015. - The ruble has actually gotten so strong that Russia's central bank is actively taking measures to try to weaken it, fearing that this will make their exports less competitive. - The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves.

G7 Meet-up - Smile and back slapping - Global hunger on the agenda, climate change - China - ganging up against - Commitment to Ukraine - whatever they need. - The G7 partners are set to agree to ban imports of gold from Russia, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters. A German government source later said that leaders were having "really constructive" conversations on a possible price cap on Russian oil imports.

Phew... - Ratings agency Moody's on Friday affirmed United States' rating at "Aaa", citing the country's emergence from the pandemic shock with "exceptional" economic strength. - "Moody's expects the US economy and the sovereign's credit profile to remain resilient to shocks, including the current challenges to the global economy from high and persistent inflation, tightening financial conditions, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine," the ratings agency said in a statement. - It maintained United States' outlook at stable.

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Stocks blasted, then loved. Markets have no memory.

Car loans 6, 7 years? Fear is palpable.

What happens when everyone is on one side of the ship?

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Kaboom - 0.75% loved then hated! - Markets seem to move one day up and one day down - Oil getting sold - China in Spotlight again. - Animation Banned - Cost of paying for a new car - Watchout! - A little Mahi fishing this weekend..

Market Update - Down 6-10% last 5 days (US Markets) - Debate rages about - USD Up, Oil Down, Rates Up, Stocks - who knows - Big day Tuesday - Light volume, but BIG moves on indices - best in a while. Energy and Financial Lead - No direction - oversold after last week - will it last?

Fear - You can smell it... - Downgrades stsarting, everyone on the bear train. - Remember what they said when everyone on the Bull train? - When all on one side of the ship.... This happens..

How Bad Is It? Wealth Destrucion Coins - And, the joke is on who? - are HODL'rs Bagholders? - Weekend action was nuts - Bitcoin under $18,000 - Looked like panic in light of Celsius and other worries. BAD COINS ALT-Energy - Europe's biggest Russian gas buyers were racing to find alternative fuel supplies and even looking at burning more coal to cope with reduced gas flows from Russia on Monday that threaten an energy crisis in winter if stores are not refilled. - The Benchmark Dutch front-month gas contract was trading at about 127 euros per megawatt hour on Monday, up more than 50% since the start of 2022. - What were they thinking?

META - Stock price near the pandemic low - Zuck seen in photo of new metavers /VR headset (looks like old black dive mask) SCUBA DIVING ZUCK? Home / Housing - Lennar Corp today became the first major U.S. homebuilder to flag a slowdown in demand for new homes as red-hot prices and surging interest rates force many buyers to rethink purchases. - Any forecast at this point would amount to "guessing", Lennar said, even as it maintained its home delivery expectations for the full year at about 68,000 homes. - For the second quarter, however, the higher home prices and demand helped Lennar report a profit of $1.32 billion, or $4.49 per share, beating analysts' expectations of $3.96 per share

And Now This - Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen said that she anticipates the “economy to slow” during a Sunday morning interview on “This Week.” - “Well, I expect the economy to slow. It’s been growing at a very rapid rate as the labor market has recovered, and we’ve reached full employment, it’s natural now that we expect to transition to steady and stable growth. But I don’t think a recession is at all inevitable.”

Even More Yellen:| - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said some tariffs on China inherited from the administration of former President Donald Trump made "no strategic sense" and added that President Joe Biden was reviewing them as a way to bring down inflation.

COVID - China - The world's biggest gambling hub Macau began its second day of mass COVID-19 testing on Monday after dozens of locally transmitted cases were discovered over the weekend, with most businesses shut but casinos remaining open. - Most residents are asked to stay home, restaurants will be shut for dine-in and border restrictions have been tightened, meaning casino revenue is likely to be close to zero for at least a week and likely the coming weeks - BUT, Casinos NOT CLOSED

Racism in the MetaVerse (CNBC Article) - The tech industry has spent a decade publicly reckoning with its diversity problem. Still, Black and Hispanic workers hold just 7% and 8% of computer worker roles in the U.

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Floating a 75bps hike - late Monday that is what the Fed is doing in hopes of moving faster to just pull the band-aid off.

Crypto collapse - bad things happening in the space this week.

Mortgage applications drop off a cliff as the Fed is expected to pump up the volume...

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - BAD MARKET - Rule #1 - Never tell people they cannot have their money - Food Wars? Big Problems - WSJ Floating 75bps trial balloon! - NEW WORD!

Market Update - Down 6-10% last 5 days (US Markets) - Smoked on Rate hike fears - Coins eviscerated, disemboweled - Another Project (Celsius) bites the dust - BEAR - YTD SP 500 -21%m NASDAQ -31% VIX up 89% - Natural Gas PLUNGES

Recap of last Week - Wild Stuff AGAIN - Crypto Crashes - HARD - Celsius - Bitcoin slumped 14% on Monday after major U.S. cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Network froze withdrawals and transfers citing "extreme" conditions, in the latest sign of the financial market downturn hitting the cryptosphere. - Etherium whacked as well as the entire space - Once again - machine/algo/quant driven blow ups that were levered - Binance suspended withdrawals for a time being on Monday - due to logjam - RULE # 1 - NEVER TELL PEOPLE THEY CANNOT GET THEIR MONEY

Coin Question - Can Binance and Coinbase halt and under what circumstances?

Tuna Fish - Robert Kiyasaki - Rich Dad/Poor Dad said great as investment for inflation - 2 things - 1) Lame discussion 2) Ripped me off of my idea - Tuna great bunker food and currency

Explain? - World Bank - Food Crisis is coming - Fertilizer costs up BIG - Lots of Fertilizers from Russia and Belarus (amongst other places)" - Low plantings due to high cost of fertilizer = less food = higher prices and the journey continues - US gov't reportedly encouraging ag and shipping companies to buy and carry more Russian fertilizer in a measure to ease spiraling food costs

More Food - or is it China feud? - Pork Wars - Smithfield Foods Inc., which is a unit of China's WH Group, it will cease all harvest and processing operations in Vernon, Calif., in early 2023. - "Smithfield is taking these steps due to the escalating cost of doing business in California," the company said. The move is part of an overall effort to reduce its sow herd in the Western U.S., including Utah. It's also "exploring strategic options" to pull out of its farms in Arizona and California. - Lots of layoffs - Maybe just making statement about states with high costs?

Rates and Markets - CPI comes in at 8.6% on Friday - all hell breaks loose - Big moves in food and other core numbers, - WSJ floats 75bp idea for coming meeting (current rate hike assumption is for 50 bps) - MONDAY 3PM - The 2-yr note yield has surged to 3.42% while the 10-yr note yield has jumped to 3.36%, eliminating the spread between the two as market participants sense an aggressive rate-hike path will lead to slower growth, and possibly a recession, in coming months. - Thought - Maybe market will like that Fed is getting this done faster - instead of letting this drag out (thought of market participants) -- Many presume that markets can rally on this type of move ---- HOWEVER - takes time to absorb this kind of move in markets - could actually cause panic

More Rates - Last week - 30 year mortgage 5.5% - This week 6.35% - Mortgage applications dropped 50% YoY

Tesla - Bigger problems - Production at Tesla Inc's Shanghai factory is on track to fall by over a third this quarter from the first three months of the year as China's zero-COVID lockdowns caused deeper disruptions to output than Elon Musk had predicted. - Last week,

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Target reports more problems - but market take it as a massive deflationary happening.

June is expected to be an "up" month - breaking the string in 2022.

Musk, Dimon and others are panicking - should we stay or should we go?

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - A recap of last week's crazy - MonkyPox - Now Masking? - Target revises - even worse - deflationary and market is getting this - Apple - not much in latest update (Cars?) - Prostitution in the Metaverse - Floods in SoFla

Market Update - May ends mixed - but down - Oil Prices racheting higher - even with more supply - Peak Inflation - being discussed - Tesla jobs cuts - then back track - spooked markets (Unstable Genius?) - Gas closing in on $10 per gallon in Cali

Recap of last Week - Wild Stuff - Stocks fell on Friday to cap their eight week of losses out of the last nine. For the week, the Dow fell -0.9%, the S&P -1.2%, and the Nasdaq -1.0%. - Indices failed to build on the prior week's momentum. Equities stalled as buyers failed to step in above key resistance levels. A slew of headlines led to the pause including: -- On Tuesday, J.P. Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon stated that he saw an "economic hurricane" on the horizon and that his bank would remain conservative in the current environment. --- Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk echoed those comments on Friday, stating he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and that his company would need to cut approximately 10% of its staff. (Walked back) ---Salesforce Inc (CRM) posted a solid round of earnings Tuesday after the bell, but the company's outlook was lowered due to FX headwinds. --- Microsoft (MSFT) followed suit and provided a rare pre-announcement, warning that it would miss Q4 (June) results due to the same currency challenges.

Stamp-Flation - The USPS approved a rate change that will take effect July 10, 2022. The price changes affect mainly Market Dominant prices, which include First-Class Mail, USPS Marketing Mail, Periodicals, Package Services (Media Mail, Library Mail, and Bound Printed Matter), and Special Services. Stamp Prices Going Up MONKEYS - The CDC raised its alert level for Monkeypox to level 2 on Monday, recommending that travelers wear masks, among other health measures. - More than 550 cases of monkeypox have now been recorded in 30 countries around the world, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). - As of June 3, there have been 21 recorded Monkeypox cases in the U.S. connected to the current outbreak, according to the CDC. - "What's likely happened is an endemic infectious disease from Africa found its way into a social and sexual network and then was greatly aided by major amplification events, like raves in Belgium, to disseminate around the world,"

Wells Fargo - Why anyone uses this back??? - Wells Fargo & Co is pausing a hiring policy that requires recruiters to interview a diverse pool of candidates - the New York Times reported such interviews were often fake and conducted even though the job had already been promised to someone else. - Finally! Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed that it sold its remaining shares in the bank this week

Peak Inflation - Plenty of economists who argue that the shock will soon fade, as supply blockages ease and energy costs stabilize. Some warn that central banks are in danger of making a big mistake by raising interest rates too aggressively even as price pressures show signs of peaking. - Economists at Morgan Stanley warn that the risk of an inventory glut is growing, especially in sectors such as consumer discretionary and technology goods. - Target!!!!!!

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What a week - markets on fire!

Inflation is everywhere - but the latest retail reports show a deflationary trend.

Economic realty - the Fed's communication strategy is working - maybe too well.

Russia fighting back on the economic front - what that could mean to foreign investment in the future.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Breaking In - My Car That Is....! - BIG week for markets - up 6%++++ - Moviegoers spending - Top Gun tops box office record for Memorial Day weekend - The Monkey Pox - headline grabbing - Amazon stock split - coming this week - Retail Apocalypse claiming more - inventories out of whack

Market Update - Follow up was a divergent signal - (YTD lows and VIX at 30? (Shows that this may be localized - tech etc) - - Someone laying big VIX bet - Fed QT taper begins - the experiment is fully underway again - FED carrying huge losses (unrealized) - Stocks seem a little more upbeat - investors bargain hunting?

Market Update - Last week (Tape Painting?) S&P 500: +6.58% DJIA: +6021% NAS 100: +7.2% Small Cap : +6.5% - Big moves on small tech names that were pummeled

VIX Bet - Today someone loaded up on $VIX $150 calls for December 21 expiration. - Maybe just a simple catastrophic bet or.....? - Never hit that high (82.69 on 16 March 2020)

Amazon Stock Split - June 6, 20/1 - Now price will be 120, which may attract option traders. - Have to own 100 shares to do covered call strategy - was harder for some with price at $2,500 - Also could be problematic as put may be more reasonably priced.

Case-Shiller POPS - Housing prices up big! The March S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index scores a 21.2% increase vs. 20.0% consensus on a year-over-year basis. - That is something that you do not see too often - if ever. - The last time was back in 2007-2008 as housing was seen as an investment that was leveraged to the hill. - This time, it is different, but the same. - The leverage is not with the banks as it was, but there are plenty of investment properties out there with the hopes that the rental game will continue.

And this... - The Hampton's summer rental market is facing an unexpected chill as inventory piles up and prices come down - Median rental prices in the first quarter fell 26%, according to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. Brokers say some owners are slashing prices by 30% or more just to fill their properties. - Vacationers who used to rent in the Hamptons wound up buying in 2020 and 2021 to have a more permanent getaway. The average sales price topped $2.6 million in the first quarter of this year, up 25% over the same quarter last year

One More - Sharply higher mortgage rates have caused a sudden pullback in home sales, and now sellers are rushing to get in before the red-hot market cools off dramatically. - The supply of homes for sale jumped 9% last week compared with the same period a year ago - April sales of newly built homes, also measured by signed contracts, dropped a much wider-than-expected 16% compared with March - BOO HOO - "We used to get 10 to 15 offers on most houses," said Lindsay Katz, a real estate broker at Redfin in the Los Angeles area. "Now I'm seeing between two and six offers on a house, a good house."

Inflation - Europe - Euro zone inflation rose to yet another record high in May, challenging the European Central Bank view that gradual interest rate increases from July will be enough to tame stubbornly high price growth. - Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro accelerated to 8.1% in May from 7.4% in April, beating expectations for 7.7% as price growth continued to broaden,

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What are they thinking? Drying up liquidity into a time of war, pandemic and a slowing economic backdrop - dumb.

Markets worried that the latest pre-announcement are more than isolated. Retail-apocalypse.

A coupe of limericks...

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Markets whacked - everyone of the experts talking about need for capitulation (dumb) - Fed continues on hawkish path even though economy crumbling - STUPID, QT and Rate Hikes will break versus slow - Money talks - Environment Loses again? - Davos Confab - Glum - Bottom line - this is a total shitshow - analysts, investors, Fed, governments - maybe from standardized testing? - Two limerick submissions - Let's talk Twitter

Market Update - YTD lows and VIX at 30? (Shows that this may be localized - tech etc) - SNAP breaks - Social media and advertising stocks hammered - Yields backing up - market correlation back a bit to "normal" - Huge outflows from bond ETFs/Funds - what does that mean? - Retail-apocalypse - wait until we discuss these inventory numbers....

10 Plauges - Getting us for past decades gluttony - Covid - Flurona - MonkeyPox - Nuclear War - Supply Chain - Inflation - Hurricanes - ?????

MonkeyPox Stocks? (Smallpox vaccine potential) - SIGA - EBS

More of the Monkey - Belgium has become the first country to introduce a mandatory 21-day quarantine for monkeypox patients as cases of the disease

NUKE TALK AGAIN! - China and Russia flew nuclear capable bombers over sea of Japan while President Biden was in Asia - From FT - (paywall and reckless)

Hurricane Season - "Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. - NOAA's outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. - GENRAC generators (GNRC)

How About This Crap? - The White House is considering waiving U.S. gasoline environmental rules aimed at reducing summertime smog, hoping the waiver will combat rising pump prices, according to three sources involved in the discussions. - The White House has already lifted the requirement for summer sales of E15, a lower-price, high ethanol gasoline.

More on Valuations (First two week's of May - action was relentless) - Microsoft has lost around $189 billion in value. - Tesla's markdown registers at $199 billion, months after seeing its valuation fall below $1 trillion. - Amazon's market capitalization has declined by $173 billion. - Alphabet, Google's umbrella company, is worth $123 billion less than it was ending April - Graphics card maker Nvidia's loss stands at $85 billion. - And Facebook parent Meta Platforms has lost $70 billion in value.

Twitter - Deal Dead? - Trading below pre-take private offer (~$35.80) - Carnage in social media space - this was one of those late night snacks or something? - Without underlying bid - price would be ... $25? - How can he buy now? CLEARLY lack of due diligence - If he drops deal - TSLA back in play ?

Some Bogus Poll - but interesting (MagnifyMoney) - Nearly 4 in 10 investors (38%) pulled money from the stock market in the past year due to current events. Of that group, 40% regret their decision. Gen Zers (67%), millennials (57%) and men (49%) were most likely to take out money. - Two-thirds of Gen Z investors ages 18 to 25 (67%) and over half of millennial investors ages 26 to 41 (57%) took money out ...

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TwitDrama is still going strong.

Oil prices are back up and this is cause for some concern.

Massive rebound in small-cap tech, still needing of stabilization before investors willing to trust this market condition.

Bernanke in an unusual twist....

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Coming up for Air - Epic Arizona adventure - cut short by death in family - Everyone I know seems to have a "cold" - It goes on and on and on and on - Twitter/Musk - Everyone talking about dead-cat or bear-market bounce (The watch out) - Bernanke just may have violated the Gentleman's Agreement

Market Update - Calming a BIT - Buyers Step in (BMB or Real?) - Oil prices on the way up again - Food prices big problem - China relaxing lockdowns - Crypto Crash and StableCoin cause unease

OMG OMG - Seriously - some of these stocks down UP 25%-50% in past few days. (COIN, U, RBLX, UPST)

We Have A Problem Crude Oil Price Chart Earnings - Tale of the Tape - Walmart misses by $0.18, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; Q1 comps +3%; lowers FY23 EPS guidance; raises FY23 sales guidance; CFO seeing consumer "behavior changes" due to inflation -- WMT issues lowered guidance for FY23, sees EPS of -1% yr/yr to $6.40 from mid single digit growth prior guidance, excluding non-recurring items - Stock down 11% - Worst day since 1987 - Home Depot beats by $0.40, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus - - Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $4.09 per share, $0.40 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $3.69; revenues rose 3.8% year/year to $38.91 bln vs the $36.78 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. --- Comparable sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 2.2 percent, and comparable sales in the U.S. increased 1.7 percent. -- Co issues upside guidance for FY23, sees EPS of up mid-single digits vs. +3.7% yr/yr or $16.12 S&P Capital IQ Consensus; -- Sees FY23 revs of ~+3.0% to ~$155.7 bln vs. $154.02 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.

Food prices - Bad energy plan - Brazilian sugar cane mills are cancelling some sugar export contracts and diverting production to ethanol to cash in on high energy prices - Production mix change and crop delay - total cancellations recently estimated of 200k-400k raw sugar production - production is shifting in favor of ethanol as high energy prices driven by pandemic recovery and war in Ukraine spur more fuel output

Bernanke - On why Fed waited too long: “One of the reasons was that they wanted not to shock the market,” he said. “Jay Powell was on my board during the Taper Tantrum in 2013, which was a very unpleasant experience. He wanted to avoid that kind of thing by giving people as much warning as possible. And so that gradualism was one of several reasons why the Fed didn’t respond more quickly to the inflationary pressure in the middle of 2021.” - Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke said the central bank erred in waiting to address an inflation problem that has turned into the worst episode in U.S. financial history since the early 1980s. - BUT WHY IS HE TALKING NOW?????? ---- Bernanke’s new book is “21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to COVID-19” and will be released officially Tuesday.

More Fed - Powell speaking today (free lunch for him) - Financial conditions have tightened significantly - Comments in line with expected (2) 50 bps hikes expected over next 2 meetings. - Markets dumped a little on that comment, USD climbed,, BTC and Gold dropped

Baby Formula - Serious Shortage - Shelves bare - Baby formula aisles at U.S. supermarkets have been decimated since top U.S.

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He went too far - TOO FAR!

Europe abandons its plans - oil recoils.

Twitter drama continues...

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Testing key psych levels - not coming up for air - The Twitter saga continues - but what did you expect with Musk involved? - Egg on Face - Red is the New Green - Hair Raising Charts today - Maybe ????/ China Tariff News?

Market Update - TAKING A BEATING - No Where to hide... - The opposite of the wealth effect, now known as poverty effect ? - Red is the New Green? - Bad year's return this month - Earnings outlook - somewhat lower estimates coming in

OMG OMG - Seriously - some of these stocks down 50% in past few days. (COIN, U, RBLX, UPST)

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Performance 2022 - OMG

Growth/Value OMG - Another OMG Cut in Half Last One Markets In Turmoil Rivian Motors - Amazon and Ford took big positions - Was good for a minute - Selling off shares, taking stock down - High $160 - Current <$25

Earnings Outlook - Analysts had lowered their overall forecast for S&P 500 second-quarter profit growth to 5.6% from 6.8% at the start of April - The full-year forecast has held at 8.8% - BUT - The 2022 growth estimate, however, drops to about 5% without the energy sector's growth - a sizeable impact for a sector that accounts for just 4% of the S&P 500's market capitalization.

HORRIFIC - GoodRX - Misses - stock chopped 39% in A/H - Upstart - Guides down - stock down 42% in A/H (ATH $395 - now $ 46) - Coinbase Global prelim Q1 ($1.96) vs $0.86 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $1.17 bln vs $1.48 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

Do We Have To Talk About This? - How Does Nuclear War Help Anyone? - Testing - very timely.... - The Ilyushin II-80, dubbed the “Doomsday” plane, is a Russian-built aircraft with emergency strategic equipment built which is designed protect Putin from a nuclear attack. - The aircraft has highly distinctive features including a windowless fuselage and an exaggerated radar detection dome on the roof of the cockpit. This is reportedly to prevent exposure to electromagnetic pulse (EMP). - Domsday plane showcased in Military parade in Red Square

European - Russian Oil Ban - EU reportedly abandons plans to ban Russian crude shipping after failing to lock down key partners to mirror the sanctions, according to FT - How does that work

OH - And this.... - Japan will ban Russian crude oil imports "in principle," as part of a Group of Seven (G7) campaign to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said after an online meeting of G7 leaders on Sunday.

China Lockdowns - Locking down in Shanghai - not improving - Bejing - Srtarting to close in - Will China ever be out of COVID emergency?

Fed - Boosted and Freaked Markets - Took 0.75% off the table - so he said - market rejoiced - One day later - Oooofah - Fed fund futures are priced for rates reaching 1.75-2.0% in July, from the current 0.75-1.0%, and climbing all the way to around 3% by the end of the year. - USD at 20 year high - Crypto - crashes (so much for the hedge - thanks fellas!)

NEWS ALERT - Last Friday - CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Friday that the Federal Reserve’s attempts to crush inflation by raising interest rates will also inevitably bring down “formerly high-flying stocks” – even those that are “legitimate” companies.

Double News Alert! - Nothing done but..... Biden weighing reducing/lowering China tariffs to slow inflation - NO F'Ing KIDDING! WORST THING EVER TO BEGIN WITH

Hone Kong "Election" - Hong Kong's leader-in-waiting, John Lee, was endorsed for the city's top job on Sunday by a committee stacked with p...

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Fed decision imminent.

Global slowdown - is now the time to cool the rate hike discussion a bit?

It is the worst start of a year since.....

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Secret - Not First Time Rates Up - Markets getting crazy - Maybe it is not just the rates. (Reality Check Time?) - Fed coming out with their latest rate decision tomorrow - 1000 point days, 500 point turnarounds - the norm now? - Some earnings news....

Market Update - Mixed bag - Amazon crash, Facebook Rallies (general story this quarter) - THIS IS A FED ENGINEERED RECESSION - Worst start to a year since.... (April Awful!) - USD 20-year high against Yen

Andrew's Idea for the Fed - Raise rates by 0.50% tomorrow - Instead of range (0.75 -1.00) just make it 0.75% - Stress that inflation is high alert item, BUT watching other items and how they impact economy - Tamp down hard line a touch, but continue to note inflation concerns, blended with economic concerns - Risk is to upside for markets (slightly) as many positioned for very hard line (aka priced in)

Free Range No More - Organic and free-range chickens have been thrown into lockdown. - Egg-laying hens that normally have access to the outdoors can no longer roam as freely or feel the sun on their beaks as some U.S. and European farmers temporarily keep flocks inside during lethal outbreaks of bird flu, according to egg producers and industry representatives. - Free Range seems to be just a nice thing..... ------The U.S. outbreak is the second-worst in history, with more than 35 million birds wiped out this year. France has culled nearly 16 million birds in its worst outbreak ever, while infections have also hit nations including Britain, Italy and Spain

Earnings of Interest - The online education company saw its shares plummet 39.2% in premarket trading after it cut its revenue outlook, saying current economic conditions are prompting consumers to prioritize "earning over learning." - Pfizer reported a first-quarter profit of $1.62 per share, 15 cents a share above estimates. Revenue topped forecasts as well. The drugmaker cut its full-year outlook due to an accounting change. Pfizer shares fell 1.3% in premarket action. - Facebook/Meta - Stock rallied hard after soothing investor's worst fears that it had become irrelevant (cutting back on spending by ~ $3 billion also helped) - LYFT - earnings okay, outlook okay - big spend - - plans to invest more in driver supply to improve service levels and in other business initiatives. (Stock down 30% A/H) - Starbucks - good report - but big investment coming to catch up to unmet demand. ----- Pulled guidance as no visibility due to China lockdowns - AMD - BIG Quarter - server business picked up and reports that they have a good outlook related to supply chain to meet guidance. (up 7% A/H)

Crypto ATMs Crypto ATM Media Collapse - Vice Media, the digital media company once valued at $5.7 billion, has hired bankers to seek a sale, according to people familiar with the matter. - Paramount - sales fall - Disney + what going on - Netflix - Numbers in reverse - What is up with this?

Explain - Analyst worried about bubble - huge collapse potential - "There's probably a lot more downside to go," said Suzuki, who's also a former Bank of America-Merrill Lynch market strategist. "Information technology, communication services and consumer discretionary... alone make up about half of the market cap of the S&P 500." - Yet, Suzuki is staying invested in stocks. - To weather a potential crash, Suzuki is taking a barbell approach. On one end, he likes stocks which typically benefit in an inflationary environment,

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Interesting development with rates - first time in a very long time this happened.

YUAN moving - big change of trend

Big news from GM - or is it?

Stocks slump, bonds up - correlations normalize for once.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Markets moving to lows - China Jailing Citizens - Currency Moves - USD getting too HOT (Client ports moving to Unhedged bonds) - Something with yields that has not happened in 3 years! - Did they have to use the word "Nuclear" again? --- Yields finally cracking lower a bit

Market Update - BIG WEEK for earnings - Twitter Musk - Musk Twitter- VIX > 30 - Market Questioning Growth (Oil, Chips) - Big reversal - hope for change of trend - stuffed YTD - NAS down 19%, SP500 12%, DJIA 8% - Natural Gas - HAVOC

What you will start to hear from the bobble-heads shortly: 1) It is an orderly sell-off 2) Healthy process 3) Buying opportunity 4) Cleansing ...............

YUAN USD/YUAN Twitter - Twitter confirms definitive agreement to be acquired by entity wholly owned by Elon Musk for $54.20 per share in cash in a transaction valued at ~$44 bln

Chip Prices - Not As OverPriced? - A sharp drop in graphic chip prices could presage an unexpectedly quick ending to a global chip crunch that has crippled manufacturing from smartphones to cars, and the issue will be a central one for companies reporting results this week. - GPU prices are still being sold at a premium, but a smaller one. Susquehanna analyst Christopher Rolland earlier this month said that the markup over manufacturer suggested retail price or MSRP has fallen to 41% from 77%. - Demand for GPUs may also drop because crypto currency Ethereum is expected to change the way it operates late this summer, reducing the demand for graphics chips that power systems used to mine the cryptocurrency today, analysts say. - Some talking GLUT -

Yields in play - The yields on the 1-yr T-Bill (1.94%) and 2-yr Note (2.67%) both surpassed the dividend yield on the S&P 500 (1.47%) in early March. - First time in 3 years - Sucking sound out of stocks?

Natural Gas - Russia will halt gas flows to Poland on Wednesday, the Polish gas company PGNiG said. - The company says it hasn’t got any outstanding payments and that the cutoff is a breach of its contract. - Won't pay in Rubles.... - European Natural gas prices shot up 17%

Twitter - Musk - Deal done? $44 billion ($38% prem) - Largest buy by any one individual - Musk coming up with $ --- $12.5% margin loan against Tesla shares and other monies for about 65% and borrow the rest ---- What happened to the Poison Pill? - Why did BOD stop - no shop?

More to worry about? - Investors turn anxious - Elon Musk is buying Twitter. Where does that put Tesla? The day after the announcement, Tesla is dropping pretty hard as the concern is that "fixing" Twitter is going to take time away from Tesla and the other companies he runs. - Tesla down 10% today

Silly - The price of dogecoin popped on Monday afternoon following news that Twitter has accepted Elon Musk's buyout deal. - The meme cryptocurrency jumped as much as about 27% after the announcement that Twitter will be purchased by an entity owned by the Tesla CEO.

Netflix/NetFlop - Going after password sharing - More than 100 million households are using a shared password - Will likely favor the setting of an extra fee for those accounts being used by multiple people outside of the home. - The company has already started a test of this feature in Peru, Costa Rica and Chile - The pricing is different per country — about $2.13 per month in Peru, $2.99 in Costa Rica, and $2.92 in Chile,

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Housing numbers rolling over. Survey says: Bears overtaking Bulls by a wide margin.

Turnaround Tuesday is intact.

IMF is downgrading global growth.

Announcing a new Closest to The Pin

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - When the Going gets tough - the morons recoil - Rates still moving higher - could be ready to peak - PPI at 11.2% last week - ridiculous - Next week avalanche of earnings - Housing prices cooling? 30-yr @ 5.25%! - Happy Financial Literacy Month - A must see chart/infographic - Excitd abiut 4/20 day? - TESLA announcing earnings at 4:20

Market Update - April now a down month, Gold Up, Silver Up, Dollar Up (SAFETY Trade) - Twitter think all over Twitter - Nuclear and Domestic Drilling Back Baby! - Bank Stocks - Earnings playbook last week - spot on.... (But.....) - Tuesday - The Once a Week short squeeze happening today - Fed speakers are all hawkish in union - A Fine Kettle...

Hawks Unite - A Kettle of Fed speakers, a Cast or a Boil is now the proper nomenclature. - Group of Hawks is called....

Brainard - Party Line... - Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said she expects methodical interest rate increases and rapid reductions to the Fed's balance sheet to bring U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year, with further tightening to follow as needed.

Yield Curve Types Yield Curve Lingo Markets - Technical Levels - Very basic support and resistance right now - 50 DMA seems to holding wither resistance (QQQ , SPY) or support (DIA)

Netflix - UGH - Net -Shits the Bed is more like it - Stock down 25% after first loss of subs in a decade and miss on revs and weak Q2 guidance (62% from high) - Global subs expected to come in at +2.5 million ... actual -200k - Taking down Roku, Disney, paramount and Fubo TV

Earnings - Bank of America (best of season so far) - Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.80 per share, $0.06 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.74; revenues rose 1.8% year/year to $23.2 bln vs the $23.09 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus. - Net interest income up $1.4 billion, or 13%, to $11.6 billion, driven by strong deposit growth and investment of excess liquidity, loan growth and benefits from higher long-end interest rates. - If yield curve calms a bit AND recession potential fades... If If If - then good for BAC

BlackRock - BlackRock Inc posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit on Wednesday as the world's largest asset manager benefited from investors pouring money into its various index-traded and active funds. - The New York-based firm ended the past quarter with $9.57 trillion in assets under management, up from $9.01 trillion a year earlier. That compares with a record high of $10.01 trillion in the fourth quarter.

Bastards! - Elon Musk on Thursday stepped up criticism of the U.S. securities regulator, calling Securities and Exchange Commission officials "bastards" for bringing fraud charges against him over his 2018 tweets regarding taking the company private. - "So I was forced to concede to the SEC unlawfully. Those bastards," Musk told the audience. - Musk said he felt forced to settle with the SEC because banks threatened to cease providing capital if he did not do so, which would have made Tesla bankrupt immediately. - Meanwhile......April 16 - A federal judge has ruled that Tesla CEO Elon Musk's 2018 tweets about having secured financing to take the company private were false, according to court filings by Tesla investors suing the billionaire over the tweets. - The filing said that the court ruled April 1 that Musk's 2018 tweets were "false and misleading.

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A week off and so much to catch up on. Need to know more about John's bday bash.

Inflation much - yup we have a large segment to review - CPI and PPI out this week.

New from the Mile-High-Club and Elon's latest craziness.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - March - UP... First of the year - John Birthday Party (Had at "CLUB") - China clamping down, Inflation still rising and Congress get COVID - Stock Splits - More companies trying to play that game - latest Shopify and Gamestop - Elon Musk - On, Off The Board of Twitter in record time

Market Update - SAME NEWS Yields - inversion across much of curve - Earnings season gets underway this week - Russia Defaults on Foreign Debt (some) - Oil sliding lower on massive release of SPR from several countries ---- NEWS: IEA to release 120 million barrels over 6 months - 30 Year Mortgage rate hits 5.25%

Commentary: Surprising that Yields keep moving higher. Yes, Fed and Inflation, bit weakness in markets not drawing in either. First part of April (quarterly rebalance) should have moved from stocks to bonds - but not good look for risk assets.

JCD Birthday - Curry/Tina Dinner - So, listening to No Agenda from Sunday - you heard we had dinner. - If you listen, Adam's commentary on N/A went something like this: Well, we ended up in Ft Lauderdale and "since we had nothing better to do, we call up the Horowitz's" (Time stamp - 12:51) - Went to club, I want to have a nice bottle of wine and we order a 2017 Silver Oak Cab (2) - We all eating and drinking - except Adam - full bowl of conch chowder and full glass of wine not touched for entire evening

Think 0.50% Hike is bad? - Sri Lanka's central bank doubled its key interest rates on Friday, raising each by an unprecedented 700 basis points to tame inflation that has soared due to crippling shortages of basic goods driven by a devastating economic crisis. - The heavily indebted country has little money left to pay for imports, meaning fuel, power, food and, increasingly, medicines are in short supply.

Earnings Season Pre-Report - First up are the transports and the financials. (This week's highlights - Delta and JPM) - It looks as if the expectation is for airline losses to get better, although still showing losses. - Financial expectations are mixed, those with reliance on trading and fixed income issuance are expected to show a significant reduction (JPM MS, GS) in earnings from a year ago. - Some of the consumer related names look to being faring better - according to analyst predictions. (BAC)

Ukraine/Russia - Reports that Ukraine holding up pretty well, massive Russian Casualties - More reports that Russia looking to call back retired military to restock forces - Europe backed down from immediate block of Russian Oil - China not buying more oil - but not sanctioning either - Food costs up on Ukrainian Wheat and other export problems

Russian Default - Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt because it offered bondholders payments in rubles, not dollars, credit ratings agency S&P has said. - Russia attempted to pay in rubles for two dollar-denominated bonds that matured on April 4, S&P said in a note on Friday. The agency said this amounted to a "selective default" because investors are unlikely to be able to convert the rubles into "dollars equivalent to the originally due amounts." - According to S&P, a selective default is declared when an entity has defaulted on a specific obligation but not its entire debt.

China Supply Chain - Internal - Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Nio said on Saturday it has suspended production after the country's measures to contain the rec...

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Markets getting a kick out of Biden's lean in and walk back.

Will Smith - what was that?

Yields invert - 10Year hits 2.5%

Oil crumbles on the China lockdowns - everything is backasswards.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Strong Finish for the month - Biden leans in and walks back - North Korea stirring the pot - China - more lockdowns (Supply chain going to break) - LIMERICKS! - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for URA

Market Update - Yields - inversion across most of curve - Shrugging all hots off like Chris Rock - What a pro... (End of stand up) - Crude oil drops 7% on China Shanghai lock-down news - Apple says big drop in output needed - stock barely budges (ends higher on the news) - Lots of talk about taxing unrealized gains as well as moves against buybacks - Strong month - markets up > 3% (Looks like window dressing and short unravel) ---*** KRI HITS +6 this morning - OVERHEAT -- 2/10 invert for a minute today (Cease Fire = higher chance of Fed rate hike)

KRI Update - Was +6 this morning (Closed at +5) - The overall market, as measured by the KRI algorithm, is nearing a critical level of being overheated. The potential for a key reversal is high over the next few days. - Caution with respect to long side is warranted. Evaluate long positions, tighten stops and consider reducing overall long exposure or hedge out risk in the near-term.

Will Smith - Real or Fake?

Markets Moving on this? - Russia is prepared to allow Ukraine join EU as part of ceasefire talks as long as it doesn't join NATO - Something off with markets - rallying like cease fire will fix all... But: - - Quicker rate hikes more likely --- No change in impact from oil prices

Shanghai Lockdown - Shanghai's city government said on Sunday all firms and factories would suspend manufacturing or have people work remotely in a two-stage lockdown over nine days, after the city reported a new daily record for asymptomatic COVID-19 infections - Oil Dropped big time on this ans some softening - Sapping fuel demand further, public transport, including ride-hailing services, will also be suspended during the lockdown.

Fighting Words - U.S. President Joe Biden said that Russia's leader Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power" in Poland over the weekend - Biden's comments on Saturday, including a statement earlier in the day calling Putin a "butcher" - Frantic walk back after the comment - but it seems that most buying the twist of what was said.

M&A News - HP Inc said on Monday it would buy audio and video products maker Poly (aka Plantronics) for $1.7 billion in cash, a move that would help it take advantage of the electronic products boom sparked by hybrid working. - The deal offers $40 for each share of Poly, a premium of about 53% to the company's last closing price.

Come on... - Huawei Technologies on Monday reported asset sale gains helped lift profit 76% in 2021, turning in its first set of results under Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou since she returned to China last year after nearly three years' detention in Canada. - In its biggest-ever annual gain, net profit rose to 113.7 billion yuan ($17.8 billion), the smartphone and computer giant said. - Revenue skidded 29% to 636.8 billion yuan, in line with Huawei's previous forecast in December ---- Asset gains are legit, but need to be stripped out (Bad reporting)

Meanwhile - Apple reportedly cutting production on Airpods and some iPhones - demand issues - Apple is preparing a hardware subscription service for iPhones that could launch as soon as the end of this year, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

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One of the best week's since....

Markets continue in rally/rip mode as "hope" that Ukraine beats Russia.

China stimulus hopes propel tech shares to the moon

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Massive Rally - Just to Suck you back in to this Crapfest (defined last show) --- Big winners were the biggest losers over the latter part of last week ---- GS Short basket flew - 20%, Chinese Stocks > 35% last week - Usually see these kinds of moves - ONLY in Bear market - Need to be picky about positions...Opps! - The nature of bear markets - big swings with VIX above 25! - Russia - COUP??? - LIMIRICKS!

Market Update - Get em' - Oversold, pent up, rally after Powell's 0.25% hike - Fast Forward and he is hawkish again - saying 0.50% at any meeting is possible - Big moves for Boeing - Plane down in China

WHAT A WEEK! - Market's "V" again off of the hope that Jay Powell and Friends will take it easy on the rate hikes. - 0.25% and every meeting this year is live. - During press conference he seemed to put many at ease, but was still very hawkish. - He said - He didn't see an elevated chance of a recession next year (sparked markets instantly higher) - Best week for over 2-years, markets in green for MTD (HUGE MOVE on individual names) - China stocks rocket! KWEB up 35% for the week (index of Chinese tech names)

THREE NUMBERS TO RUIN YOUR DAY: - $110 (oil) - 2.30 (10 Yr) - 0.38 (2/10 spread)

2/10 Spread Yield Curve Flattening And Then - - Rates - Spike - - current 10 yr > 2.2%, Oil moving up again - Inflation in Germany - PPI > 25% YoY - War still raging - Food issues starting, more supply chain issues ..... - So what is next catalyst for markets (Earnings?) - EU considering Russian Oil Embargo (Self - mutilation)

Rates - More - St. Louis Fed's Bullard says the central bank should raise rates above 3% this year - As the lone dissenter at this week's Fed meeting, Bullard said in a statement that he would like to see the central bank's benchmark interest rate boosted above 3% from the near-0% level where it had stood. - Bullard was the only FOMC member to vote against the move, stating that he would have preferred a rate hike of 0.5 percentage point, or 50 basis points. He added that the Fed also should have started the process of reducing the nearly $9 trillion in bond holdings it has accumulated over the past 14 years.

More to Ruin your Week - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan at press conference says President Biden and EU leaders will decide Thursday what they should do if Russia uses a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon in Ukraine - Good News: A Kremlin spokesperson apparently out stating Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened - 2 comments on Nukes that are not needed.

Russian Coup? - A group of Russian elites are allegedly conspiring to overthrow Russian President Vladimir Putin and “restore economic ties” with the West, according to Ukrainian intelligence. - Who is Putin's food taster? - Crazy info-wars going on....

Where to? - China says Taiwan, which it views as a breakaway province to be brought back to the fold, by force if necessary, is the most sensitive and important issue in its relations with the United States. - "Some individuals in the United States are sending the wrong signals to pro-independence forces in Taiwan, and that's very dangerous," Xi told Biden on a video call. - If the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it will have a subversive impact on the relationship between the two countries."

China Plane - All Lost - China Eastern Airlines will ground all Boeing (BA) 737-800 jets as some...

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Down and down she goes...

Inflation hot, but the Fed is on tap - Rate decision Wednesday.

Odd action in the VIX ETF - let's take a look.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Technical term - Crapfest - Nuclear Mentions freaking out people (and markets) - No end in sight for this war... - QQQ - NASDAQ 100 - Official 20% Correction - CORN, WHEAT, AGS, OIL - All start this week well off those highs - Big talks - China, Saudi Arabian, Venezuela, Brazil - Concern growing that China may help Russia - Another VIX dilemma

Market Update - EVERY RALLY SOLD (But Setting up for another EPIC SHORT SQUEEZE - which may also be sold) - NASDAQ off 20%+ from highs. If history is a guide, may not be quite done yet - Oil off big! Everyone was talking energy... - Looking for a bottom - seems like a bad idea - Market Psychology getting pretty ugly (Fear Greed Index) - Supply Chain - Worse than ever - DELL computer - June 24th (Optiplex) - Senate passes $1.5 trillion bill to keep Govy open and Ukraine - Raskin withdraws nomination to Federal Reserve board

Starting off HOT - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday sounded the alarm over Russia raising the alert level for its nuclear forces after invading Ukraine, describing it as a "bone-chilling development." - "The prospect of nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility," Guterres told reporters, and repeated his call for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

VXX - WOW - Barclays stops the creation of shares due to some reason. - Shares can be traded but less liquidity and wonder why anyone would want to use this vehicle - LOTS of talk about PUT buying on the name on Monday - VXX - HALTS up 20%, 30%, 40% throughout day - Market games in full play (no reason for this)

Fed Day Tomorrow - What will Jay Powell Do?

JCD QUIZ - How much is Facebook off its recent High in September 2021 - What about Zoom Media? - Bevy of names that are down really hard - keep a watch on basing patterns - could be good setups for L/T buys

Fear Greed Index

Fear/Greed Hint, Hint, Wink, Shove - Deutsche Bank has said it will wind down its Russia operations — a major U-turn that sent shares higher Monday. - In an announcement released late Friday, the German bank said it was joining a host of international peers in exiting the country in response to its invasion of Ukraine and resultant operational restrictions. - "Like some international peers and in line with our legal and regulatory obligations, we are in the process of winding down our remaining business in Russia while we help our non-Russian multinational clients in reducing their operations," the bank said in a statement announcing the departure. - Good boys and girls - now we will buy your stock (Stock up 8% on news)

If the War wasn't enough - China COVID count is up BIG - Hong Kong seeing record numbers of something - China shutting/locking down areas again --- This is a big problem for prices, supply chain ---- This is good for the transition to the selective isolationism - need to bring manufacturing back home - Shenzhen, the biggest city in the manufacturing hub of Guangdong province, told all businesses not involved with essential public services to suspend production or have employees work from home for a week starting Monday.

Tesla/Musk - Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Sunday the U.S. electric carmaker and his rocket company SpaceX are facing significant inflationary pressure in raw materials and logistics.

More Inflation - Uber is adding a surcharge on fares and deliveries in the U.S.

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This is a Black Swan Event - what comes next.

Markets down hard - correction, bear market and train wrecks

Oil, Nickel and commodities screaming higher - let's discuss.

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Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Investors in full panic mode - Russian stock markets closed - many Russian stock halted - QQQ - NASDAQ 100 - Official 20% Correction - Limit Up for Corn and Wheat - massive moves over past days - Talking about Selective isolationism - Limericks - Back

Market Update - Nasty downside action - sellers are hitting all rallies - buyers on strike - Hitting correction territory and bear markets - Killing Russia economy will inflict pain on US Economy (and world) - Utilities, Metals, Energy Good. Discretionary, Tech, Everything Else bad - Small-Caps USA Stocks - You would think....No outside US exposure.

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Putin's War - China Virus = Putin's War?

BLACK SWAN EVENT (S)! - The hike in rates/inflation was clearly an issues for markets - The invasion of Ukraine somewhat known. --- Russia was supposed to win in 3 moves. - The Fool's Mate - fastest checkmate in chess. - - No one could have predicted that the world - companies and companies - would totally shut down Russia's economy... ---- Devastating impact for the world if not rectified. ------ Black Swans having baby swans too....

Black Swan Definition - A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. - Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, severe impact, and the widespread insistence they were obvious in hindsight.

NEWS - Moving Markets - Ukraine is no longer seeking NATO membership??? (Turns out this was OLD news and unconfirmed at that) --- News was out about Noon - markets climbed significantly --- But But But ---- 1:18PM news that Russia is banning all exports until 12/31/22 (Need to confirm this too) ---- If true - this could be really problematic - described as a Suicide-bombing of the West. -- ALL OF THESE MARKET MOVING ITEMS NEED TRIPLE CHECKED - Markets moving on nothing

Sneaky Cease Fire Proposal - Moscow said on Monday it would provide corridors for residents of Ukraine's two main cities to flee to Russia and Belarus, a move Ukraine called an immoral stunt to exploit the suffering of civilians under Russian bombardment. - "humanitarian corridors"

What Moving Markets? - Fear F E A R -- War --- Prices ----- Projected Outlook - Headlines

Nickel - The London Metal Exchange halted trading in its nickel market after an unprecedented price spike left brokers struggling to pay margin calls against deeply unprofitable short positions. - Nickel, used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, surged as much as 111% during the Asian day on Tuesday to trade briefly above $100,000 a ton. - LME does not think they will open trading back up until at least March 11th.

So Much Sanctions - Government and Private Industry ganging up - - When has this ever happened at this pace?

Tik Tok - TikTok, the Chinese-owned video app, said on Sunday it would suspend live-streaming and the uploading of videos to its platform in Russia as it reviews the implications of a new media law signed on Friday by President Vladimir Putin.

McDonalds - Closing all 850 stores in Russia temporarily - The latest company to pull out

Shell Game - Shell stopped buying Russian crude on Tuesday and said it would phase out its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons from oil to natural gas over Ukraine,

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