Market Depth: Recent Episodes
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Weston Nakamura’s “Market Depth” is your direct access to the Asia Pacific region. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday & Friday to stay up to date on the macro forces driving markets from Asia to the U.S and everywhere in between.
Nvidia surprised the street with another major beat to guidance estimates for its Q2 earnings release - arguably the most widely watched corporate earnings report globally in 2023, with the stock +9% higher in after-hours trading. However, in the following Asia trading session - which is the world's first region to start the full trading day, and thereby the first to react to the A.I. giant's strong quarter and optimistic guidance - the various market reactions were surprisingly tepid. Shares of TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest and other "A.I. plays" were consistent in being fairly muted. The broader Nikkei225 and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also limited in both upside and in volume traded. Weston Nakamura walks through these market cues out of Asia, which point to a potentially disappointing market response on NVDA shares themselves at US market open later, as well as other A.I. thematic shares globally. Weston also provides the market background of what had helped drive the A.I. and NDX momentum from last quarter, as well as the August market sell-off for critical context in understanding NVDA and A.I. momentum plays. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
China has had a very rough 2023, in markets and in the real economy. But, last week was a particularly brutal week for China’s markets, as the Hang Seng Index closed the week in bear market territory, and the yuan edged ever closer to its treacherous 15-year lows - all of which had spilled over to broader global markets. Weston Nakamura gives a comprehensive overview of what happened in China through the week of utmost consequence to global markets, including record strong yuan fixings, Country Garden Holdings Group’s bond defaults, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group and the $3 trillion Chinese shadow banking industry contagion risk, and China’s policymakers daily policy proposals in attempt to support markets (to no avail), and much more. This is not only a way to catch up on a critical and consequential week of non-stop headlines and developments, but this is the ongoing state of affairs in China that had been dragging global equity markets down since the start of August, and therefore is relevant to all investors everywhere. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
As followers of Market Depth Podcast know- this year's NASDAQ upside rally was largely driven by Japan and the Nikkei225. Now, Weston Nakamura explains how the current market sell-off is being driven by China, and the plunging yuan. Weston also discusses his views on the Japanese yen, and how he is approaching the FX market intervention risk, as the yen weakens to previous unilateral intervention levels - as well as his views on the Chinese yuan, also reaching critical levels despite heavy-handed state intervention underway. This is the episode that will make equity investors, particularly US equities, to fixate on the Asia market impact effect. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Ahead of the US July CPI data and the 30-year Treasury auction, Weston Nakamura follows up from the previous episode of Market Depth with an update on bond market activity from Japanese investors, who have been driving the week's drop in global sovereign bond yields via the JGB and US Treasury markets. Using futures markets, Weston shows the renewed bullish sentiment as exhibited by a surprisingly strong 30-year JGB auction, and a smooth scheduled Bank of Japan bond buying operation. Japan is once again back to anchoring global bond yields - for now. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With still no further clarity on Bank of Japan’s new policy framework of Yield Curve Control, and currency and cash bond markets out of sync, Weston Nakamura examines market price action and activity on US and Japan rates through the lens of futures markets, in order to determine if cross asset market behavior is normalizing. Weston also notes the schedule for this week, in which there will be 30-year auctions held in both the Japanese Government Bond market, as well as the US Treasury market, within 2 days of one another. Given the respective policy setups for US debt issuance and Bank of Japan YCC, there may be competition for investors’ capital playing out at these long-dated bond auctions. Finally, Weston offers a potential theory as to why Fitch Ratings had suddenly downgraded their credit rating of US debt, while subsequently publishing positive commentary on Japan’s credit risk in light of the Bank of Japan’s surprise jump in interest rates - which largely went unnoticed. In doing so, Weston dives into the very active world of of yen-denominated foreign bond issuance, in which global corporates and sovereigns have been rushing in to Japan in order to tap the last bastion of cheap money left. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Developed markets globally saw a dramatic rise in sovereign bond yields that spanned this whole week - notably at the long end of US Treasuries. Some attribute the move to Fitch Ratings downgrade of US debt, while others point to the government's announcement to boost its bond issuance in the coming months. Following up from the previous episode of Market Depth, Weston Nakamura shows how this week's global bond rout not only stems directly from the Japanese Government Bond market and the Bank of Japan's recent surprise policy change to the way in which it conducts Yield Curve Control policy, but also how previous major episodes of extreme global bond market volatility had been triggered by an illiquid, malfunctioning JGB market, and Bank of Japan meetings as market moving catalysts. In light of these recent developments in policy experimentation and purposeful obfuscation by the central bank, Weston also provides an explainer on a "trading-day-in-the-life" of a Bank of Japan bond buying operation for a critical dose of clarity as we move forward with Bank of Japan's experimental processes. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
At the July 2023 Monetary Policy Meeting, the Bank of Japan took markets by surprise (after "pre-announcing" its policy 10 hours prior during US trading hours and moving global currency, equity and bond markets) by making a significant change to its Yield Curve Control policy framework, in which it lifts the upper trading band on 10-year JGB yields from 0.50% to 1%. The central bank also made a major revision upwards on its inflation forecasts for fiscal year 2023 to 2.5%, well above its 2% target. This is the first policy change implemented under newly appointed Governor Ueda. While the consensus debate revolves around whether or not this is the start of Bank of Japan's exit from its outlier accommodative policies, Tokyo-based Weston Nakamura believes that there is far more to the policy decision than just a "YCC tweak." Aided by utilizing financial media outlets to move markets and clear out existing positions, the Bank of Japan is attempting to wrestle its policy away from the hands of markets, and return it back under its own control by purposely introducing elements of confusion and uncertainty - which it labels as "flexibility." Weston gives a historic overview of how Yield Curve Control trading bands had been a market-creation in the first place, what the market implications are, and why this policy change fundamentally reshapes how the Bank of Japan and market participants interact. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The final week of July ends with the three major central banks’ policy decisions - the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan - each with their own set of issues and tools respectively, and all of which are highly interconnected with one another. However, the economic backdrop is completely unique this time - as Japan now has a higher inflation rate than the US, while still in easing mode. Would the Bank of Japan really begin tightening monetary policy, just as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and others are finished? Just a hint of policy convergence, particularly between the ECB and the Bank of Japan, can have significant, widespread market impact. Weston Nakamura begins the episode with an update on the PBOC’s daily fixing of the Chinese yuan exchange rate. He then discusses the Bank of Japan once again leaking their own policy through media outlets ahead of the official policy meeting. And finally, Weston takes a look across various markets globally, and assesses what may occur if sentiment around policy divergence shifts to policy convergence. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With the strongest daily yuan fixing since November 2022, along with state banks sustaining dollar-selling, and the adjustment of a cross border financing rule to further discourage yuan sell pressure all in combination, the People’s Bank of China was able to forcefully rally the yuan significantly higher. In addition, China's USD-denominated junk bond market sees its worst three-day plunge so far this year, as property developers Wanda Group, as well as two state-backed firms signal imminent default. Weston Nakamura ties the efforts of the PBOC to uplift the yuan with the severe volatility in China's USD-bond markets, and points to China's alarming behavior that something of utmost concern seems underway. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With China's Q2 GDP and retail sales figures missing consensus estimates for yet another round of data disappointment out of China, and the PBOC injecting a mere 3 billion yuan of liquidity to their 1-year MLF operation. Weston Nakamura looks at currency and commodity markets as weakness across China's economic landscape continues to be left unattended by policymakers' lack of stimulus measures. Weston also discusses why Wall Street economists seem to be caught off-guard by China's economic data deterioration time and again, particularly in the first half of 2023. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
US inflation figures came in considerably softer than expectations, and global currencies, bonds, equities and commodities rose at the expense of the U.S. dollar. But what happens when US CPI is now below Japan CPI? What does that mean for markets (namely the yen), and the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting (with direct implications on global bond markets)? Weston Nakamura discusses the US vs Japan inflation differential as it relates to the Bank of Japan policy, pointing to recent history as precedence. Weston also gives an overview of Asia currencies for the week, and their respective performances against a crumbling USD, with particular focus on the futures-driven yen move, as well as the lagging Chinese yuan. Listen To Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital on weaponizing the yen: "China’s Stimulus Takes A Backseat To Save The Yuan | Michael Howell" -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In today's episode, Weston Nakamura explains the recent price action of the world's worst performing currencies in 2023: the Japanese yen's sudden surge as options on futures expire and crowded positions close, and the Chinese yuan in crisis mode as the authorities continue to urgently exercise multiple yuan-supportive measures. Weston suggests that should the yen short covering gain momentum, global yields may fall in tandem. Lastly, Weston follows up on his recent and ongoing thesis of the leadership shakeup currently underway at the People's Bank of China with additional thoughts - namely, why the central bank is currently operating without an official governor in place? And what exactly happened to the recently re-appointed (and subsequently fired) incumbent Governor Yi Gang that made his presence as the PBOC Governor so unacceptably toxic? -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In order to get a truly expert assessment on the liquidity picture out of China, Michael Howell from Crossborder Capital joins Weston Nakamura, as they explore Weston’s thesis from the previous episode of Market Depth - China’s immediate term priority is to stop the yuan’s precipitous fall. This has been made evident by the PBOC’s daily yuan fixings stronger, as well as their net liquidity draining that had been occurring over the last several trading days. In addition, Michael incorporates his view on how the Japanese yen is being weaponized to attack the Chinese yuan - a theory that Michael and Weston have been discussing on an ongoing matter. Weston also discusses another potential working theory on China’s economic weakness as inflationary for the developed economies, contrary to mainstream views.
Follow Michael Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap http://www.crossbordercapital.com -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Over the weekend, the top brass at China’s central bank Yi Gang (PBOC Governor) and Guo Shuqing (PBOC Communist Party Chief) were suddenly removed from their posts after having been reappointed by President Xi Jinping less than four months ago. Meanwhile, PBOC Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng has been elevated to the role of Party Secretary at PBOC, and is also expected to be named Governor of the PBOC shortly. Pan is also currently the Director of SAFE (State Administration of Foreign Exchange) - the foremost currency management body which oversees China’s massive $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. The consensus narrative out of financial media on this major development has been that “Pan is a continuity candidate,” providing stability in a time of escalating economic risk (which, as Weston Nakamura points out, is an absurd takeaway in itself). However, according to Weston Nakamura, what the policy stimulus preferences of the newly appointed leadership is not what key headline is - rather, this is part of a bigger effort from China as of late - to somehow stem the sharply declining yuan. In light of the outright failure from broader financial media to properly inform and analyze a major central bank reshuffling its top level officials in the midst of market and economic turmoil, Weston Nakamura presents a deep-dive explanation and analysis on what is currently underway, namely: Pan Gongsheng has been elevated with great urgency to the very top of China’s central bank for one reason only - to defend the yuan as it approaches a 15-year breakdown level. This is a must-watch/listen, and share episode of Market Depth. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda surprisingly stole the show when making his first international English appearance since taking office at the ECB’s annual gathering of central bankers in Sintra, Portugal this week, during a live panel with fellow peer central bankers including Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Bailey. Clips from the event of the new face of the Bank of Japan have been going viral, as the soft-spoken academic made light-hearted jokes onstage in an otherwise tense moment in macro policy. Yet, there is far more to take away from the event than just Governor Ueda delighting the crowd. Weston Nakamura breaks down the new head of the BOJ’s behavior, including what the otherwise outgoing Governor avoids answering, and points to a very telling picture of the overall modern day inter-central bank relationships. Footage and clips from European Central Bank ECB Forum on Central Banking - Policy Panel https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
After being sidelined by coronavirus, Weston Nakamura returns to Market Depth with charts and graphics to discuss the Japanese yen edging ever closer to the critical 145 level against USD - currently the single most important market and price level anywhere, as markets are on Japan officials’ intervention alert. Weston shows how Japan’s October 2022 unilateral foreign exchange direct market intervention was the most pivotal moment of the year in global markets - as that had forced a record-sized short covering of JPY futures, and simultaneously setting the top tick in the risk free rate of 10-year US Treasury yields to this day. Weston then discusses a potential major risk catalyst this week - in which Governor Ueda will be making his first English-speaking public appearance for the international community since becoming Governor of the Bank of Japan in Sintra, Portugal, sharing a stage with Fed Chair Powell, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and ECB President and host Lagarde - accentuating the policy divergences that have re-emerged.
See Weston’s Twitter thread: JPY Price Action Explainer: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread/status/1615053103811952640?s=20 -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Following last week's series of rate cuts that were met with tepid market response, China delivers another -10 basis point rate cut to its 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates before market open today in-line with its recent measures - only this time, markets pulled sharply back. Is this the start of a new market paradigm? Weston Nakamura scrutinizes market price action out of China today in search of the answer. Weston also observes what broader major equity indices' recent price behavior looks like absent U.S. market participants upon a U.S. market holiday, and tests his recent themes and findings presented in prior episodes of the Market Depth podcast. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Off the heels of the June 2023 FOMC's "hawkish pause," PBOC's "catch-up cuts," ECB's "hawkish hike," and BOJ's "dovish autopilot unchanged" policies, Weston Nakamura takes a look back at a historic week of globally synchronized fragmentation among major central banks. In particular, Weston looks into the peculiar relationship forming between the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, in which the ECB calls the BOJ policy normalization a major risk to global bond markets in its official financial stability report - a rare commentary made against a fellow major central bank peer. Weston discusses how the Bank of Japan leaving their Yield Curve Control policy unchanged shows that Governor Ueda may indeed be trapped in the legacy framework, and that it's fellow major central banks who are implementing hawkish policies are are depending on the BOJ to remain in place as the world's final QE anchor. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
After months of wide-scale economic deterioration in China, the People's Bank of China and the central government are finally taking action with three waves of stimulus measures today. The PBOC first makes a surprise cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate before market open on Tuesday, followed by a Bloomberg report of a broad based stimulus package at the end of the trading day, and finally a late-evening announcement of cuts to three standing lending facility rates. Yet, the overall market response was that of deafening silence. Weston Nakamura walks through each of the stimulus measures, as well as what the anemic market response means, and what to look for next. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The US equity market's performance, particularly in outperforming tech stocks, is not what it seems. Weston Nakamura lays out his analysis and observations on how the Nasdaq 100 Index is being driven by Japan's Nikkei 225 index. Additionally, Weston explains how the ongoing issue of weak market breadth and narrow participation is also a byproduct of the immense foreign equity inflows into Japanese stocks. This is a differentiated explanation from an angle of global flows into and out of US, Japan and European equity markets - and what to expect next. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
The sustained and incredibly resilient Japan equity rally crashed today - despite broader indices left relatively unscathed (although S&P E-Mini futures also followed Japan indices sharply downward during Asia hours). Why did this occur, and what does it mean for the world's favorite and best performing market, as well as broader markets globally? Weston Nakamura breaks down the three sell-catalysts from the day: Chinese exports data that came in weaker than expectations, the -7% plunge in the Turkish lira, and officials in parliament discussing the unwinding of Bank of Japan's 37 trillion yen worth of equity ETF holdings - the latter two being the actual market moving catalysts. Weston talks about the immediate market risk that the lira may pose if it begins a runaway momentum sell-off that forces Japan retail to liquidate other assets, and also discusses the implications of Bank of Japan selling its equity index ETF holdings. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
We are in the midst of key conferences for markets - from the CLSA Japan Summit in Tokyo, to A.I. focused Computex in Taiwan, to China-themed conferences by Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong and JP Morgan in Shanghai. Weston Nakamura takes a look into using these conferences as potential near term, directional turning points for markets - and presents the case for a potential larger trend reversal for a pause in upside for Japan equities, and a rebound upward in Chinese and Hong Kong equities, based on these conference events. -- Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9U Follow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vm Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespread Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors".As a long-term or tactical macro investor, the emotion-driven biases threatening to kill our performance are countless. Alfonso walks through his 3 investing principles to help investors best position themselves in markets so ensure they assets that are return additive and low correlation assets.—As a listener of Boiler Room, you will be able to get access to TMC content for the entire 2023 by paying only 9 months instead of 12! Check out which subscription tier suits you the most and grab your last chance to be an early bird subscriber using the discount code ‘‘TMC2’’! https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/—Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoomSubscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/—Referenced In The Show:Let's Not Be Stupid Macro Investors: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/stupid-mistakes-macro-investors#details—Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:57) Common Mistakes & How To Avoid Them(04:13) You Sure You’re Running 5 Positions, Or Is It Just 1?(06:58) Do Not Proxy Trade(09:08) Final Thoughts—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Link to Jared's book - Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://amzn.to/3EQ0xxX
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jared Bibler author of Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con.
Alfonso and Jared draw parallels between the financial fraud that took place in Iceland during the 2008 financial crisis, and the recent fallout of FTX. History doesn't repeat itselt, but it often rhymes. What is it that causes financial fraud and excessive leverage time and time again throughout history? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Jared: https://twitter.com/jared_bibler Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show:
All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/money-printing-myths#details Iceland's Secret: The Untold Story of the World's Biggest Con: https://icelandssecret.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) All They Told You About Money Printing Is Really, Really Wrong (03:37) The Untold Story of The World’s Biggest Con (11:54) Parallels With The FTX Fallout (15:55) History Doesn't Repeat, But It Often Rhymes (21:17) How Did The Situation In Iceland End? (24:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian for a discussion on the rising risks of recession into 2023.
With a focus on the cyclical & secular forces driving the global economy, Eric shares his framework for assessing the risks of recession in Q1 of 2023. Using both real time and leading indicators, Eric evaluates the current cyclical trend in economic growth and inflation before sharing his outlook on what this means for markets. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Eric's Secular & Cyclical Economic Outlook (06:37) Are We In A Recession? (13:21) Market's Are Not Priced For A Recession (20:08 )Market Outlook Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?".
While equities have rallied in recent weeks, investors are split between wether this signals a market bottom, or a bear market rally. With the end of the year often posting positive equity returns, we have to dig under the surface and look at the bond market to help us. Alfonso walks through the signals the bond market is telling and describes how we can position to benefit from that, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Boiler Room: https://twitter.com/PodBoilerRoom
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ — Referenced In The Show:
The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bond-market-talking#details
Secure Your Spot on The Macro Compass! https://themacrocompass.substack.com/about — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) When The Bond Market Talks, You Better Listen (04:30) What Is This: 2001? (07:54) The Fed Pivot... Or Pause (11:07) What Is Happening In Markets? (14:40) The Macro Compass — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners to discuss the recent rally in markets.
In 2022, inflation remains Powell's single focus. After tightening financial conditions all year, markets in recent weeks have rallied on lower than expected CPI & PPI prints. Julian walks through the dynamics that could be at play for an end of year rally, but holds conviction that markets are not priced for a recession in 2023. — Follow Julian: https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:03) Are Equties Signalling A Bear Market Rally? (06:20) Inflation In The U.S (10:06) Markets Are Not Priced For A Recession (14:05) Equity Market Liquidity (19:16) The End of Hyper-Financialization (24:40) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
''Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor.
As a listener of Boiler Room, you can use the code ''Alf'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/
Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) October's CPI Report (15:30) Top Stories of The Week (25:25) FTX: Crypto's Lehman Moment (30:15) Launching The Macro Compass Platform -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for an update on the forces driving equity markets through the end of 2022 and into 2023.
Mr Blonde walks through the 3 biggest factors driving markets today: U.S midterms, earnings & the Fed. Being vocal about the bear market driven by the Fed's tightening cycle, Mr Blonde now sees the next leg of this bear market being driven by earnings revisions. To hear all this & more, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ — Referenced In The Show: Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:50) The Next 3-6 Months In Equity Markets (03:28) Mid Term Election Impact? (07:45) Equity Earnings Season (11:39) What Is This: 2001? (14:51) Looking Ahead 6 Months Into 2023 (18:24) The Powell Pivot (25:36) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish".
This week, the Fed raised rates by 75bp. Many expected the following press conference to be dovish and markets rallied upon anticipation. As soon as Powell spoke, those gains reversed as Powell reiterated “it’s very premature to think about pausing”. Alfonso breaks down the Fed conference, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Referenced In The Show: A Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/from-hawkish-to-more-hawkish#details Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee November 1, 2022: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1074 __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) Powell's Press Conference (06:55) Powell Aims To Regain Credibility (10:19) A Fed Pivot From Hawkish To...More Hawkish! (12:25) Monetary Plumbing: Treasury General Account & Reverse Repo __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Dario Perkins Managing Director of Global Macro at TS Lombard for a discussion on "the non-Fed pivot".
As central bankers around the world identify inflation as the common enemy, embarking on their fastest rate hike path in modern history, just what sort of fragilities are emerging at the edges? Dario takes a deep dive into the U.K, Canadian & Australian economies as signs of fragility begin to emerge. Dario also discusses the real estate bubble's that have happened in these regions as they failed to de-leverage post 2008, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! — Referenced In The Show: A Sudden Change of Heart? Housing IS the Business Cycle -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:51) Dealing With Higher Interest Rates (05:29) Central Banks Are Having A Sudden Change of Heart (11:33) Can Central Banks Afford Not To Fight Inflation? (15:04) What Will Make Powell Pivot His Hawkish Stance? (19:08) Dario's Outlook For Markets Throughout 2022 & Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds".
After being in London for Blockworks' DAS Summit, Alfonso had the chance to speak with some some macro hedge funds. Alfonso reflects on their contrarian views from the conversations he had with those funds, to share how macro hedge funds are viewing the world in this market condition. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
A Chat With The Top Macro Hedge Funds: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/chat-with-macro-hedge-funds#details
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:17) Housing IS The Business Cycle (04:51) Death By A Thousand Cuts Or A Systemic Risk Event? (08:02) Using The Last 10-Year Framework Won't Work (10:57) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Pension Funds Drama Explained". Leveraged bets, illiquid assets and pending liabilities have led to a UK pension fund crisis. How did pension funds end up in this tenuous state? Are US and European pensions next, and what does this mean for investment portfolios? Tune in to find out! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: The Pension Funds Drama Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/pension-fund-drama#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:34) Pension Funds 101 (05:47) Everything Was Fine, Until Volatility Hit (08:46) Can This Happen To The US & Europe? (11:21) Investment Implications -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Frances Coppola to explain today's banking system and debunk the theory that money is "printed".
Frances discusses the creation of money in the modern economy and how the money supply expands and contracts. We then explore the bank lending process, a bank's equity and what almost everyone gets wrong about bank reserves.
Does government fiscal spending increase the money supply or just recycle it? Are bank reserves lent to other borrowers? What components comprise the total money in circulation? Tune in to find out!
Follow Frances: https://twitter.com/FrancesCoppola4 Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
The Case For People's Quantitative Easing https://www.amazon.com/Case-Peoples-Quantitative-Easing/dp/1509531300 -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:27 Who Prints Money? 04:16 How Banks Make Loans 06:07 What Everyone Gets Wrong About Bank Reserves 19:46 Government Fiscal Spending, It's Circular 24:00 Why Is This So Confusing?
-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled “Wait: Is It 2001 Again?!” This week, Alfonso draws parallels between the 2000 - 2001 period by looking at inflation, equities & bond market performance. As markets have caught many investors off guard this year, it’s important to look back throughout history to inform asset allocation. As Mark Twain famously said “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. Just how similar is the 2000 - 2001 period compared to today? To find out, you’ll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso Follow Blockworks Subscribe To The Macro Compass Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Referenced In The Show: Wait: Is It 2001 Again?! -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Refreshing The Macro Framework (07:16) The Monetary Policy Stance Remains VERY TIGHT (10:06) The Powell Credibility Indicator (11:06) Early 2001 Is Here, Again! -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a timely update on the US dollar milkshake.
Throughout 2022 the US dollar has continued to climb higher against most currencies around the world, most notably the Japanese Yen, British Pound & the Euro. Many years ago, Brent outlined his dollar milkshake thesis stating that as long as the current monetary system stays intact, the US dollar will continue to outperform major currencies around the world and cause some real damage in the process. Brent now joins us for an update on his thesis, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Brent Follow Alfonso Follow Blockworks Subscribe To The Macro Compass Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter -- Referenced In The Show:
Bank of England announces gilt market operation Fed Pivot My A*S -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) An Update On The U.S Dollar (03:49) Fed Pivot? Think Again... (05:24) Intervention In The FX Markets (08:34) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied (11:40) How Effective Are FX Reserves At Saving Currencies? (15:13) The Dollar Milkshake Theory (22:17) The Great Deleveraging (25:28) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "FX Markets Are On Fire".
In 2022, FX markets are back with a vengeance. For the last 20+ years, developed markets’ economic models were based on a two-tier system of globalization and credit creation. In 2022, as inflation continues to shock the global financial system, economic models are being flipped upside down as some of the strongest currencies, now become some of the weakest. In this video, Alfonso walks through the strongest, the weakest & the safest currencies in today's environment by identifying six key indicators, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
FX Markets Are On Fire: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fx-markets-on-fire#details
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) FX Fundamentals Are Back With A Vengeance (05:45) Japan: Is The YCC Ever Going To Stop? (08:49) Switzerland: Strong and Orthodox (11:12) The UK: Oh Dear… (12:42) The U.K Mortgage System (14:02) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Trust Me: It Will Be Enough".
After this weeks FOMC meeting, as Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets struggled to price in Fed policy. With echoes of Mario Draghi's famous "whatever it takes" speech in July 2012, Powell highlighted to markets that "it will be enough", the Fed will be able to break the back of inflation. So just how will markets reach to Powell's "much tighter, for much longer" stance? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Trust Me: It Will Be Enough: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/it-will-be-enough#details
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:48) The Fed Dot Plot (03:55) Powell Is Channelling His Inner Volcker (07:06) Risk Asset's & Equities (08:37) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets, for a discussion on FX markets.
As the U.S Dollar wrecking ball keeps marching higher, just how is the currency landscape evolving in both emerging and developed markets. How important is energy in determining FX rates in 2022 with the backdrop of a global energy crisis affecting Europe’s current accounts? Finally, Alf & Brent end the discussion talking about the BoJ and their yield curve control. But to hear that, you’ll have to tune in! -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC (04:40) The Effect of Energy On FX (12:13) How Energy Bailouts Will Effect FX In Europe (17:12) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde for a discussion on the forces driving equity markets.
Mr Blonde shares his thoughts on current financial conditions, the effect of a strong U.S Dollar on markets, the path forward for the Fed & what we would have to see to target 3200 on the S&P 500. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/
(00:00) Introduction (00:32) Financial Conditions (02:11) How Financial Conditions Effect Equities (04:10) The U.S Dollar (05:34) Real Yields (08:40) The Path Forward For The Fed (15:26) Market Outlook (19:38) The Path Towards 3200 On The S&P 500 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Putin vs Europe - The Long War".
In June, Putin gave a speech on the global economy that began circulating social media over the weekend. In that speech Putin reiterated the point that ''The economy of imaginary wealth is being inevitably replaced by the economy of real and hard assets''. With all of the problems Europe has faced this year, particularly surrounding energy prices before they head in to winter, Alfonso breaks down Putin's strategy as he aims to bring Europe to its knees.
Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details
Putin's Speech On The Economy: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1565704584747749382
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (00:28) Putin's Speech On The Economy (06:45) Europe's Business Model Is Reversing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Moment of Truth for Markets".
Alf breaks down what is being priced in European & U.S bond markets after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech and an upside inflation report out of Europe. After a clear market sell-off through the beginning of 2022, markets in recent months have rallied from the lows. Alf argues that now is the "moment of truth". Should we expect further downside throughout 2022 and into 2023, or not? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
Read The Moment of Truth for Markets: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-moment-of-truth-for-markets#details
Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:24) The European Bond Market (07:33) U.S Markets (09:54) Powell Will Be Happy With Markets Post Jackson Hole (13:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research LLC.
With global inflation rates at multi decade highs, Jim joins the show to discuss the “new era of inflation” we are entering. How will rising energy prices, secular de-globalization and a new work from home dynamic affect inflation in the future?
Is the bond market incorrectly pricing lower inflation? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in!
Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ – Referenced In The Show:
Neel Kashkari Says the Quiet Part Out Loud on Markets: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-29/neel-kashkari-says-the-quiet-part-out-loud-on-markets
Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details
War and Industrial Policy: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=5amR-YP34-V&t=-1e4y7st99l5d0a0be21hgr5ht
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) Neel Kashkari's Comments On Markets (05:14) The Number One Question For Financial Markets Right Now (09:31) A New Regime For Inflation? (13:51) Zoltan Pozsar: War and Industrial Policy (21:23) Asset's To Own In This Environment? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fed Pivot My A*S”.
We just heard Jerome Powell deliver a very decisive speech in Jackson Hole where he stressed that the Fed won’t be making another mistake: after underestimating inflation in 2021 and delaying the tightening cycle, they will not prematurely stop now. Alfonso breaks down how to interpret Jerome’s remarks, what the economic data is showing and where to look for short-term market opportunities. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Read Fed Pivot My A*S: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/jackson-hole#details -- Timestamps (00:00) Intro (01:47) Housing Activity is Slowing Down Rapidly (04:26) Quantitative Tightening Matters (07:19) Monetary Conditions Will Continue to Tighten (10:09) Market Opportunities -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Mark Dow author of behavioural macro, a former policy economist, prior hedge fund manager and self prescribed fiat enthusiast.
Mark walks through the process of QE & QT and explains how most overestimate the effect they have on liquidity. Does QE actually have any effect on a banks appetite for risk?
Alfonso & Mark then discuss if the Fed will remain tighter than most think & what level of inflation will cause the Fed to reverse course. Could the bottom be in? To find out, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/mark_dow Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening (08:13) Does QE Actually Effect Banks Appetite For Risk? (17:45) What Level Of Inflation Does The Fed Wan't To See? (22:11) The Fed Will Remain Tighter Than Most Think -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction".
Many investors have a macro thesis, but how can you translate that into an actionable portfolio? Alfonso breaks down how he approaches portfolio construction by walking through his macro compass model and how these 4 quadrants can influence asset allocation for different periods of the business cycle. -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Read On The Art Of Macro Portfolio Construction: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-portfolio-construction#details
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:21) The Macro Compass Model (06:03) CAD/JPY (09:06) Structuring A Portfolio With Limited Correlations (12:33) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "Fading The Soft Landing Narrative".
As CPI printed at 8.5%, market participants felt relief as many believe these are the early signs of inflation beginning to subside. On the back of a better than expected inflation report, markets began rallying as the market prices in a soft landing. Alfonso walks through exactly why markets rallied on the better than expected CPI report and if this is really just a bear market rally trap. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Referenced In The Show:
Fading The Soft Landing Narrative: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/fading-soft-landing#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Fading The Soft Landing (01:52) The Labour Market (04:57) The CPI Report (12:39) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello walks through his most recent article on The Macro Compass titled "The Crazy Market Rally Explained".
After a sharp decline in markets throughout 2022, many investors were caught off guard by the recent rally in equites. Is the bear market over? Should we expect a rally from here? "Hold your horses" says Alfonso.
Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
The Crazy Market Rally Explained: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/crazy-market-rally#details
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Fed's Neutral Rate (04:21) Inflation Is Priced To Slow Down Aggressively (05:55 )Real Rates Are Driving Markets (10:01) Slaying The Inflation Dragon -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Rising star in the macro world, Srivatsan Prakash, joins Alfonso Peccatiello, to argue that the risk of a recession is elevated. Prakash looks at indicators such as the copper-to-gold ratio and the inversion of the yield curve to make the case that a prolonged economic slowdown might be in the cards. Alf and Sri discuss China, Canadian housing, why bonds might be an attractive way for investors to hedge for this recession risk. Sri is the host of the Market Champions podcast and an intern at Simplify Asset Management. Follow Srivatsan Prakash on Twitter https://twitter.com/SrivatsPrakash Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- DAS Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code NYC250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:07) Are We Headed For A Recession? (08:49) Yield Curve Inversion Is Harbinger Of Recession (12:50) Copper-To-Gold Ratio (17:28) What's Going On In China? (23:53) Canadian Real Estate Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Imran Lakha for a discussion on Europe, the ECB and a deep dive into the options market.
With Nord Stream pipeline disruptions all throughout the week, Imran discusses the various mounting headwinds facing the European economy in 2022 from risk of recession, energy venerability and soaring inflation making the statement that "the ECB is cornered".
Imran then goes on to discuss the options market from a variety of asset classes and explains what the market is pricing, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Imran: https://twitter.com/options_insight Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Europe, Russia & The Nord Stream Pipeline (02:56) "The ECB Is Cornered" (08:32) Market Pricing (12:17) Structuring An Options Position (23:29) Whats Happening In U.S Markets? (25:08) Will The Fed Get A Soft Landing? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Jeff Snider and Steve Van Metre of Atlas Financial. Jeff, Steve & Alfonso walk through some of the biggest misconceptions in our current monetary system.
We discuss some of the emerging signs of a collateral shortage in the banking system, the current labor market, bank lending data and the inversion of the eurodollar curve. Just what signals is the bond market sending to the market, to find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven Follow Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) What Is Atlas Financial? (04:18) Is The Labor Market Strong? (09:57) The Eurodollar Curve Inversion (14:16) Bank Lending Is Collapsing (19:46) Signs Of A Collateral Shortage (28:05) Bank Reserves Are NOT Money -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Kris Sidial Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020.
With a significant equity drawdown throughout H1 2022, many investors expected a spike in volatility. However, the VIX remains suppressed at low levels suggesting a lack of fear in markets.
Kris joins the show to break down some of the complexities of market volatility and describes why we have not yet seen investors flee for the exit. Could a huge VIX spike be on the horizon? To hear Kris's thoughts, you'll just have to tune in! -- Follow Kris: https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
How structured products have suppressed equity index volatility: https://twitter.com/Ksidiii/status/1544458838149062658 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Running A Volatility Arbitrage Hedge Fund (02:40) Why Is The VIX So Suppressed? (10:19) Commodities Were The Perfect Hedge For 2022 H1, Will they Be For H2? (14:24) The Effect Of Structured Products On Volatility (21:43) How A Market Sell-Off Could Trigger A Huge VIX Spike -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Kao, retired hedge fund manager and private investor, for a discussion on the many obstacles facing the Fed.
Kao says "the genie is out the bottle" for inflation. As the Fed attempts to engineer a soft landing, will it be able to do so without causing a credit crisis? Historically, the Fed's track record of engineering a soft landing has been "pretty bad,” according to Kao. How will this cocktail of high inflation, recessionary pressures, elevated commodity prices, a strong dollar and increasing credit risk manifest itself? To find out, you'll have to tune in. -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Fed Chair Powell Opening Statement to Banking Committee: https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5020856/fed-chair-powell-opening-statement-banking-committee
Powell says the Fed is 'not trying to provoke' a recession, but it is 'certainly a possibility.': https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/22/business/powell-fed-inflation-recession.html
Inflation-"Ride of the Volkyries" Thoughts: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1528416947007680512
Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ&t=2852s
Inflation Is Popping The Biggest Asset Bubble Of All TIme | Michael Kao: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4a1Bqm4X5MeqXNAiLiirWn?si=27104db4abad40f3
Commodity price inflation butterfly: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1368978017033195528 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:49) "The Genie Is Out The Bottle" For The Fed (05:51) Whats Going On In The Bond Market? (15:44) Turmoil In The Housing Market (28:10) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research. 2021 and 2022 saw commodity prices soar due to supply constraints — Warren walks through the supply and demand outlook throughout the back half of 2022.
As China reopens, conflict in Ukraine continues, and commodity prices remain elevated, will a recession lead to a decline in commodity prices, or is the inflationary impulse and supply mismatch too great to cause demand destruction? To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow : https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:
Oil slips on China lockdowns, but bullish trends intact: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-hovers-near-13-week-high-robust-us-demand-china-optimism-2022-06-09/?taid=62a1b0ba7385bc0001a57c94 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:24) The Commodity Bull Market (03:02) The Oil Market (08:26) Backwardation Of The Oil Curve (11:59) Will Demand Destruction Reduce Oil Prices? (19:27) Supply Constrains In The Oil Market (22:49) Industrial & Agricultural Commodities (25:23) Government Reaction To Rising Energy Prices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the US dollar. Known for his popular dollar milkshake theory, Brent says the U.S dollar wrecking ball is wounding the global economy.
Recession looms as markets continue their sell-off, financial conditions tighten, and emerging markets scramble to pay off dollar-denominated debt — capital is just starting to get sucked down the dollar black hole. Just how badly will this end for global balance sheets? You’ll have to tune in to find out. -- Follow : https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination: U.S Dollar https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/e2?m=USD&f=pdf
ECB Is Discussing Crisis Strategy as Well as Pandemic Program Reinvestments: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/ecb-is-discussing-crisis-strategy-as-well-as-pepp-reinvestments#xj4y7vzkg
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (00:41) The Dollar Milkshake (05:57) U.S Dollar Denominated Debt (14:00) Rising Dollar, Gold, Equities & Rates (18:50) The Dollar Black Hole -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Michael Pettis for a discussion on China. Finance professor at Peking University’s School of Management and senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Michael Pettis worked on Wall Street from 1987 at notable firms such as JPMorgan, First Boston and Bear Stearns.
With Pettis' expertise, he provides a deep dive on the Chinese economic growth model and how factors such as debt, demographics and deleveraging will effect China's growth model looking forward. With Beijing acknowledging that the past 30 years of economic growth will not work for China going forward, what does this entail for the country’s strategy over the next decade and beyond?
To find out, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow : https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: China, U.S. lead rise in global debt to record high $305 trillion - IIF: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-U-S-lead-rise-in-global-debt-to-record-high-305-trillion-IIF--40468591/
The one-child policy in China: https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/chinas-one-child-policy/
China: To Invest or Not To Invest?: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/china-to-invest-or-not-to-invest?s=r#details
China posts record trade surplus in Dec and 2021 on robust exports: https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-exports-imports-grow-more-slowly-december-2022-01-14/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) The Chinese Model For Growth (06:41) Demographics & Consumption In China (12:02) China's Strategy In The Next Decade & Beyond (21:06) The Great Deleveraging -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Travis Kimmel for a wide ranging discussion from geopolitics to supply chains, the housing market and much more. If there is one thing to take away from this conversation, it would be that contrary to popular belief, cash is NOT trash.
Travis walks listeners through the upcoming recessionary downturn we should expect to see throughout the end of 2022. Drawing on his experience as an entrepreneur and technologist, he provides an insight to some of the struggles companies may face over the coming months. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Travis: https://twitter.com/coloradotravis Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Geopolitical Situation In Ukraine (03:47) Supply Chain Effects On Inflation (09:47) Increasing Borrowing Costs (14:00) The Housing Market (17:22) Cash Is NOT Trash (28:05) Moving Away From A Credit Based System? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Hugh Hendry host of the "Acid Capitalist" podcast. Hugh spent 15 years, from 2002 - 2017, as CIO of his macro hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management. Since closing the fund in 2017, Hugh now resides in Saint Barthélemy investing in luxury hotels, surfing & thinking about markets.
Providing his outlook for markets throughout 2022, Hugh predicts smart money will soon wake up and price in the "mother of all economic recessions". Hugh goes on to explain how the U.S dollar system is broken in it's current state but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Hugh: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Acid Capitalist: https://spoti.fi/3lMe9RI Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Drawing Historical Parallels To Todays Market (04:16) Is There More Pain To Come In Markets? (06:51) Are We Facing A De-Leveraging (13:24) Money & Inflation (20:10) The Fed Does NOT Create Money (26:23) Central Banks Are Trapped -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of "Boiler Room," Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Patrick Perret-Green otherwise known as PPG Macro. With decades of experience as an analyst, strategist & trader, Patrick describes the most important metrics he uses to follow market projections. With more than $25 Trillion being wiped out from markets already as the Fed embarks on it's tightening cycle, Patrick walks listeners through his "one chart to rule them all", sharing his outlook for markets in this environment. To hear his outlook, you'll have to tune in. -- Follow PPG Macro: https://twitter.com/PPGMacro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Carvana Lays Off 2,500 Jobs; Informs Workers Through Zoom Call: https://bit.ly/3MFRsud -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Reserves At Federal Reserve Banks (02:25) How Do Reserves Drop If QT Hasn't Started (07:50) Stress In Collateral Markets (15:23) Outlook For Growth & Inflation (21:55) Risk/Reward In Todays Markets (31:29) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of “Boiler Room,” Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Maroon Macro, global macro hedge fund analyst and author of the "Monetary Mechanics" substack. With a speciality in financial plumbing and economic history, Maroon Macro offers listeners a true masterclass in money.
Walking us through how our monetary system actually works, Maroon covers banking, bank reserves, the limitations of the Federal Reserve, quantitative easing, and the use of collateral.
Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To Monetary Mechanics: https://maroonmacro.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Basel III: international regulatory framework for banks: https://www.bis.org/bcbs/basel3.htm
DODD-FRANK WALL STREET REFORM AND CONSUMER PROTECTION ACT: https://www.congress.gov/111/plaws/publ203/PLAW-111publ203.pdf
Institutional Cash Pools and the Triffin Dilemma of the U.S. Banking System - Zoltan Pozsar: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11190.pdf
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) What Is Money? (05:49) The Limitation of The Federal Reserve (11:26) What Are Banks Doing With Bank Reserves? (12:49) Is QE Inflationary? (17:16) Bank Reserves Effect On Asset Prices (22:17) The Hierarchy of Collateral -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Boiler Room should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's edition of “Boiler Room,” Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Mr Blonde, anonymous analyst and writer of the "Stuck In The Middle" substack. Taking a break from diamond heists and bank robberies, Mr Blonde joins Alf to discuss the cyclical forces driving the 2022 bear market.
Drawing comparisons between previous Fed hiking cycles, Mr Blonde correctly predicted the current bear market. He then walks listeners through all the indicators he uses to predict market action, focusing on the business cycle.
Referenced In The Show: Don't Fight the Fed: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/p/dont-fight-the-fed?s=r -- Follow Mr Blonde: https://twitter.com/MrBlonde_macro Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stuck In The Middle: https://stuckinthemiddle.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:35 Powell's Recent Comments 02:16 Tightening Financial Conditions 19:41 Fed's Reaction To A Strong Dollar 22:57 The Housing Market
On today's edition of “Boiler Room,” Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. With a focus on cyclical and secular cycles in the economy, Eric joins the show for a deep dive into the housing market. He shares with listeners the indicators that allowed him to foresee the slowdown in economic growth that most investors are just now beginning to price into markets.
Eric also looks in depth at over indebtedness, collapsing birth rates and an aging population — what could these issues spell for the Fed's response, markets, and specifically risk assets? You’ll have to listen to find out.
Referenced In The Show: Read Housing IS The Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428 -- Follow Eric: https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To EPB Macro Research: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:37) What's Happening In The Housing Market? (05:07) Effect of Demographics On Housing (12:10) Consequences of Quantitative Tightening (22:47) The Economy Is Over Indebted (24:58) Trouble For Risk Assets?
On this Tuesday's edition of “Boiler Room,” Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Viktor Shvets, head of global and Asia-Pacific strategy and managing director at Macquarie Group. With an investment banking career almost four decades long, Viktor shares his insights at the nexus of finance, technology, politics and history.
Will the Fed will be able to carefully navigate its current rate hike and tightening cycle, or will it have to reverse its policy? Viktor walks us through his perspective on the situation. He also speculates on what the Fed's actions throughout 2022 spell for markets and other areas of the economy. To find out more, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Viktor: https://twitter.com/ViktorShvets Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Read The Great Rupture: https://rb.gy/i66gyh Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Viktor's Market Outlook (05:19) Will The Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (10:28) Trouble In Forex Markets: Japanese Yen (15:48) Unpacking The R-Star (24:11) Will Central Banks Have To Reverse Their Policy? (29:09) Regime Change Is Overhyped
On this Friday's edition of Boiler Room, Alfonso Peccatiello is joined by Andy Constan CEO/CIO at Damped Spring Advisors. With over 30+ years of experience working at some of the largest funds in the world such as Bridgewater, Brevan Howard & Salomon Brothers; Andy provides a deep dive into the often misunderstood financial plumbing to help investors navigate the Fed's quantitative tightening program.
Follow Andy: https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Damped Spring: https://dampedspring.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:32 Quantitative Tightening 04:32 What Happens When The Fed Stops Buying Bonds? 08:30 Risks vs Rewards Between Bills & Bonds 14:06 The Reverse Repo Facility 21:22 Quantitative Tightening Could Spell Danger For Markets 24:33 Is Quantitative Tightening Priced In? 27:44 Fiscal Handout's Throughout 2022 30:19 Risk Management
Blockworks is proud to present a new podcast with Alfonso Peccatiello, co-host of “The Macro Trading Floor.” Each week on “Boiler Room,” Alf interviews the top names in finance to help you maneuver markets.
In the debut episode, Alfonso is joined by Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets and author of “Alpha Trader” and the AM/FX newsletter. They discuss the recent weaponization of the US dollar and whether this trend will accelerate de-dollarization. Brent also shares some of his medium-term outlooks for FX markets and explains how to position trades around uncertain outcomes. But to hear about that, you'll have to tune in!
Read Brent's piece "Death of the dollar" - https://www.macrodesiac.com/death-of-the-dollar/
Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Spectra Markets: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:32) Weaponization of The U.S Dollar (07:29) Why Is The Dollar The Reserve Currency (13:50) FX Market Outlook (23:01) Positioning A Short vs Long Term Trade (28:11) Final Thoughts: Trading Tips