Plok Plok on GigaDial Public: Recent Episodes
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http://netzpolitik.org/wp-upload/netzpolitik_podcast_Wizards_of_OS_4_mit_volker_grassmuck.mp3
Abstract: Near-term trends�for example Moore's Law�appear to indicate that progress can accelerate. Complexity theory suggests that both cooperation and competition can have synergistic effects when participants within a system have full and rapid access to information. We can perceive such emergent properties happening whenever nature and civilization pass new thresholds. Such trends suggest that we ought to be embarking on a new era of power, intelligence and wisdom.
But there are countless examples of "oughts" that never happened. The logic of SETI suggests that our cosmos "ought" to teem with ancient and advanced intelligences, filling space with educational beacons, yet no Sesame Street tutorials have been detected. Tendentious wishing may be responsible for prematurely narrowing our view of possibility horizons.
Horizon Evaluation is a process for exploring what threats and opportunities may await us beyond the near term. It can suggest plausible scenarios for science fiction stories. It can also suggest ways to minimize threats and maximize opportunities. It may be particularly relevant for determining where to make investments.
Our civilization has already developed techniques that work well at exploring some sectors of the Possibility Horizon. Nearly all of these techniques rely upon rapid discovery of errors before those errors can prove fatal. Transparency of information flow appears to be the one common element. Only an open society would appear to have a chance of succeeding and taking advantage of the opportunities that lie ahead.
David Brin, Ph.D. has a triple career as scientist, public speaker, and author. His fifteen novels have been translated into more than twenty languages. His 1989 ecological thriller, Earth, foreshadowed global warming, cyberwarfare and near-future trends such as the World Wide Web. A 1998 movie, directed by Kevin Costner, was loosely based on The Postman. Another novel, Startide Rising, is in pre-production at Paramount Pictures. Brin's 1998 non-fiction book -- The Transparent Society: Will Technology Force Us to Choose Between Freedom and Privacy? -- deals with a wide range of threats and opportunities facing our wired society during the information age.
As a scientist, Brin was a fellow at the California Space Institute. More recently, he has been a research affiliate at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and participated in interdisciplinary activities at the UCLA Center for the Study of Evolution and the Origin of Life. He now lives in San Diego County with his wife, two infants, and about a hundred very demanding trees.
Conference notes by Evelyn Rodriguez.
This presentation was recorded at Accelerating Change 2004, November 5-7, 2004. Check here for the complete Accelerating Change archives.
hCurrently our cultural artifacts are measured in gigabytes and terabytes, and our ability to produce information far surpasses our ability to consume and to understand it. This is especially true when we attempt to identify and to understand complex networks. Mapping a complex network, when done correctly, is an indispensable tool to help understand the network. Manuel Lima, an industrial designer and an expert in user interaction, loves to map complex networks and intends to share the love with all who are interested the subject.
VisualComplexity.com, a site dedicated to the art of mapping complex networks, was created by Manuel Lima in October, 2005. It grew out of his research while at Parson's School of Design and has grown into a thriving community. As of May 2006, Visual Complexity contains samples of and links to over 300 projects from contributors around the world.
In his keynote address to the MeshForum conference, held May 7, 2006 in San Francisco, CA, Manuel Lima identifies key characteristics of a good network map and highlights some of his favorite projects.
Where has the "always on" mentality from the last two decades taken us? How well do we manage technology, or does it manage us? At the Emerging Technology Conference 2006, Linda Stone, former VP at Microsoft, discusses the concept of Continuous Partial Attention. Stone explores a broader context or how we pay attention to each other, how our attention patterns have shifted, and considers new technologies and new interfaces and how they've effected our attention. When we constantly scan the periphery to see if something more important should displace our current activity we feel like a live node on the network, we feel alive, but does are we really?
Continuous Partial Attention, a phrase coined by Stone when working at Microsoft's Virtual Worlds Group, is seen as a post-multitasking behavioral approach to managing information and data in our daily lives. In this increasingly noisy world, we have taken on the task of staying on top of everything. As a result, we satisfy our yearnings by getting to the bottom of things which come across our path. With a Continuous Partial Attention mindset we continually scan for opportunity, motivated by a desire to be part of something beyond ourselves, making us feel more alive and important.
Stone explores the last two decades of information technology and our ability to deal with and manage our daily lives together with new breakthroughs. While the period 1965 to 1985 was highlighted by the collective ideal to value self expression, the eighties and nineties were about a shift to a networked, constantly connected lifestyle. The former instilled a narcissistic quality in us, and influenced the drive for the trust in networking and collective intelligence seen in the latter period. Today we are confronted by an inability to manage crisis. We long for a sense of protection, meaning and belonging. In a world of interconnected communities and constant background noise, the overriding question is: what do we really need, and what do we need to pay attention to?
In 1929 the Hungarian writer Frigyes Karinthy proposed the theory of six degrees of separation, which states that anyone on earth can be connected to any other person on the planet through no more than five other people. In his presentation, Marcel den Hartog states that the IT industry has only three degrees of separation to the end user.
The first and the most mature is storage, which includes database and database tools vendors. The second is middleware, where the application server and security vendors play. The final segment is the application layer.
Large companies want to save money and open source is a way to be more efficient. Any technology solution will encompass each part of this value chain, and with thousands of vendors the network of relationships is becoming more and more important. Open source vendors, particularly those in the storage and middleware segments, must take advantage of their network of technology partnerships in the value chain. Understanding the three layers will help a developer be more efficient. End users will then be able to find more flexible solutions at a lower price.
At ETech 2006 Dick Hardt presents Identity 2.0, a rallying cry for simple, secure and open technology that will help solve the problem "Who is the Dick on your site?" In other words, how do we prove who we are online? As more of our interactions take place online, clearly establishing whom we are has become essential. How do you prove you are a legitimate user, let alone that you should be treated specially? In the sequel to his Identity 2.0 talk, Hardt shares his vision for how users and sites will communicate identity.
http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail851.html
Jason Fried treats the Web 2.0 2005 Conference audience to a talk about how to create a Web 2.0 company and how to do more by focusing on the idea of less. He confronts conventional business building practices and proposes the idea of "under-doing" the competition. Having less produces more constraints, which, in turn, yields better products and increased customer satisfaction.