Know The Difference Minute: Recent Episodes

Annex Wealth Management

Hot topics, fresh stories and useful formation; all in 60 seconds

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Inflation is heading the right way, but August was a hopefully temporary step backwards. 

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Trade is, and always was, political, it’s just becoming more so.

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The good news is that the Fed might feel like it can stop pumping the brakes on the economy.

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People seem to be more skittish about just up and quitting. They’re holding onto jobs a bit more tightly than a year ago.

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Unlike paying taxes where there is a deadline, the economy does not obey the clock.

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Existing home sales in July fell 16.6% from a year prior but new home sales are up 31.5% 

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Government bond yields have been mostly driven by increases in real yields. What does that even mean?

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What's the difference? The monthly job reports are a good example. 

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Most people think business cycles are actual cycles, but they're more like a rollercoaster.

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Is the Chinese economy a "ticking timebomb"? Annex Wealth Management's Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen takes a look.

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The most visible 20% of spending is moving higher. 

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Yesterday, Moody’s Investor Services helped trigger a bout of pessimism when it downgraded some banks. Not much actually has changed. 

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The default rate is headed the wrong way, rising to 3.7% in June. 

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People don’t think about diversification until it doesn’t work. 

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Fitch, a credit rating agency, downgraded US government debt from triple-A. Does it matter? 

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For a long time, job openings far exceeded the number of people actually looking for work. That's changing. 

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There were a few pleasant surprises in the GDP report.

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The big disagreement within the Federal Reserve isn’t about today’s move, but about whether there’s more to come, or, if this is good enough. 

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China’s politburo, the central committee of the Chinese Communist Party, said the government will step up policy support for the economy. 

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The Leading Economic Index has been negative 15 months in a row. If it’s leading, how far behind is the economy?

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A company earns one dollar less per share than expected and the stock tanks. What gives? Why do little numbers seem to have big effects on markets? 

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Retail sales in June rose .2% month-over-month. Even the bulletproof food and drinking places category of spending barely increased from May to June. 

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Is the earnings recession over even before an economic recession has begun?  Maybe, but probably not. 

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The key question is whether lower inflation will stick. It probably will. 

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Most of the labor market gains have really just been about repairing the damage from the 2020 lockdowns that destroyed more than 22 million jobs. 

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The gap between services and manufacturing is rarely this large. Historically, when the gap gets this large, it has marked a bottom for manufacturing, but, sadly, also a peak for services. 

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A trade war with China seems to be a perennial that just mutates into new forms. The latest is a chip war. 

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The Federal Reserve released results from its latest bank stress tests. Surprising no one, every bank passed. 

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A key challenge for investors is to not let their political opinions adversely affect their portfolios. Political winds change and they don’t tend to be the biggest drivers of returns in portfolios. 

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In regards to the weekend 'mutiny' in Russia, maybe investors are simply asking, “What does this really mean for the profitability of corporate America?” Answer: probably not much. 

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Different markets in different countries have their own dynamics. That’s where there can be a diversification benefit to investing globally.

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The Fed's statements about what they plan on doing is referred to as “forward guidance.” But, their forward guidance is only as good as their forecasts.

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Maybe the housing market isbeginning to roar back, but investors should be careful. 

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Consumers are doing well, but industrial activity isn’t so hot.

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The market knows the Fed is flying blind and pushing things too far runs the risk of causing the economy to skid to a stop. 

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Inflation ramped up in 2021 and crested above 9% in June 2022. The year-on-year inflation reading of 4% in May is better, but still not good. 

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Employers are maintaining headcounts even as demand softens. 

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If the writer’s strike stretches to late August, scripted shows stay on the sidelines. Without new content, many will spend more time with Prime Video, Hulu, Max, and Netflix. 

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If AI can fake a song from Drake and The Weeknd, suddenly, the kidnapped kid or grandchild in jail scam gets a lot more believable. 

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Today’s JOLTS report has 10.1 million openings in April, the most since January. That was unexpected and a setback for the Fed. 

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As the Federal Reserve battles inflation, employment is on the front line.

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197 million shopped HARD over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

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When there is a regulatory gap, institutions like FTX will flourish until they don’t.

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Worst case, we could see disruption in rail traffic as early as December 9th.

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Consumer spending has been healthy but RetailMeNot’s survey says roughly half of shoppers plan on scaling back.

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Organized retail crime has reduced Target's gross profit margin by $400 million so far this year.

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FTX lawyers say there could be over a million creditors.

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Today’s 7-7 is a headline number. Core CPI is more useful.

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At stake is billions of dollars in infrastructure spending. Congress will influence how much money flows and how quickly it can be spent.

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Balances hit a record $866 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2022. The average is nearly $5,500.

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Today’s unemployment numbers say one thing—but reports of growing layoffs are another.

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Now at the highest level since January 2008, the short-term borrowing rate is in a target range of 3.75 to 4%.

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The JOLTs report showed job openings increasing by 400,000 in September. There are now 10.7 million job openings.

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Without exports, GDP would have been flat.

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This past Spring, GM had 90,000 vehicles parked waiting for completion.

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Last year, demand was high so retailers didn’t feel pressure to offer discounts. It’s different this year. Stores have excess inventory

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1987's drop of 508 points was equal to 7,000 today.

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Remember when the biggest issue for homebuilders was finding land to build on and the labor to do it?

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The rally kicked in, finishing with a 1370 point swing to the positive.

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Sales are flat. 58% of products sold are under $20.

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57% of members in the 3rd largest freight union voted to oppose the agreement. Without a ratified deal, the strike threat is back.

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Ford raising the entry-level price of the electric F150 Lightning by $5000 for the 2023 model year

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Patrick DeHaan of GasBuddy.com estimates prices rising between 15 and 30 cents more per gallon

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91% predict a recession in the next year. Only 34% think it’ll be mild and short.

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When it comes to the biggest external risk to their businesses, CFOs say softening consumer demand is at the top.

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Bloomberg is reporting demand for the 14 isn’t as high as expected.

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As of today, it trades as a complete spin-off under the ticker LVWR.

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That’s a big number and the most watched program of the night.

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75 basis points for the 3rd straight time in a battle to bring inflation under control.

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Flipping houses was hot for a long time, but it might be coming in for a hard landing.

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The company has given 3,000 dealers an ultimatum: If they want to sell EVs, they’ll need to invest their own money,

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If it happens, it could cost the US economy $2 billion a day.

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After July’s reading, there was hope for a soft landing without much economic distress.

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If electric vehicles are to reach mass-adoption they need to be affordable enough and have a range that makes sense.

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New Gallup research says at least half of American workers are quiet quitting.

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The airline industry is celebrating Labor Day passenger traffic that was higher than before the pandemic.

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Xcel Energy customers noticed their smart thermostats had been at a higher temperature than they’d set.

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After several years of home sellers being in driver’s seat, the balance of power might be shifting.

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There are still nearly 2 jobs for every unemployed American.

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Some say it’s about setting boundaries to create work/life balance while others claim it’s a slippery slope of professional coasting.

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Closed sales has fallen for 8 of the last 9 months, but the smaller June to July drop could be a sign that housing is at or near the bottom of the recent decline.

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The Biden administration might be close to announcing a plan to forgive—basically cancel--up to $10,000 in student debt

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NCAA D1's oldest conference has added schools on both coasts - and now, has a $7B payday.

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Many analysts have wondered what sort of rally the markets have been experiencing.

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Walmart beat Q2 expectations and is sticking with its optimistic predictions for year-end 2022, as more middle- and high- income shoppers seek bargains.

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Existing home prices hit a record. Meanwhile, tougher times for builders.

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The 8.5% year-over-year rise came in under the estimate and down from last month’s 9.1% gain.

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To qualify, the EV’s battery must be built in North America. 50 of the 72 electric, hydrogen or plug-in models sold in the US don’t meet the requirements.

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Let’s just say, it’s cloudy.

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Their electric line now makes up almost 11% of all US EV’s.

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Layoffs and talk about downsizing are increasing.

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The US economy shrank by 0.9% in the second quarter. The 1.6% drop in the first quarter translates to back-to-back negative quarters. But is that a recession?

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With inflation running rampant and a probable dud of a GDP report inbound, speculation about a 1% interest rate hike grew daily. Turns out, it wasn’t going to happen.

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VW's ID.4 has a $36,000 base price and a plant in Tennessee cranking out 7000 a month.

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In order to invest more in EV projects, up to 8,000 salaried employees in the Ford's gas-engine division could be laid off.

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48% of quits are people switching industries. New business applications are up by more than 30%. Over 5.4 million last year alone.

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Buyers are getting cold feet with rising mortgage rates and inflation is affecting consumer confidence and purchasing power.

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If a 100 basis point increase lands, it’ll be the largest increase in modern Fed history.

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We figured the Consumer Price Index wasn’t heading back down—the estimate was for 8.8%. Instead, a 9.1% number landed.

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Rising interest rates are colliding with recession concerns. Cancellations for purchase agreements climbed to 60,000 in June.

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US employers announced over 32,000 layoffs last month—an 58% increase from last June.

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Many are watching for signs the labor market is cooling. According to a new Labor Department report, maybe—but maybe not.

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The 2022 JD Power Initial Quality Study shows more problems in the first 90 days of ownership than ever before.

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The PCE, or personal consumption expenditures index, might be more important to the Federal Reserve when weighing decisions about rate raises. It's near a 40-year high.

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GDP shrank by 1.6% on an annualized basis in Q1, higher than April’s initial report.

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Each dollar in returned merchandise costs a retailer between 15 cents to 30 cents to handle.

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The Biden administration has floated a 2023 rule change that would establish a maximum nicotine level in cigarettes in an attempt to make them less addictive.

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The average value of raw materials for EV’s is up 144% from 2-years ago.

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Sales of existing homes in dropped 3.4% in May according to the National Association of Realtors, the weakest reading since June 2020.

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More than 25% of homes currently on the market have cut their prices. But that’s not unusual.

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The 75 basis point increase in the short-term lending rate is the largest since August 1994.

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The plan was for half-point jumps in June and July as long as data came in as expected. That is no longer the case.

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Higher interest rates weigh on stock prices. It’s a backdoor way of reducing people’s income via the Wealth Effect.

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1st quarter GDP was -1.3%. So the focus is on THIS quarter.

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Their $15 billion of inventory is 43% higher than a year-ago. Much of it was late to arrive because of supply chain issues.

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Today’s ADP report showed only 128,000 jobs were filled—far off the prediction of 300,000.

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This past weekend, nearly 3% of domestic airline flights were cancelled--more than the previous three Memorial Days combined.

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The reality is mortgage rates are rising. That impacts affordability and could cool demand.

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Despite strong consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported today that the US economy contracted by 1.5% in first quarter 2022.

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21% of employees surveyed had taken a new job in the last year but 40% are ALREADY looking for something else.

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If Gasoline is bad, it’s way worse with Diesel. US average is $5.71.

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April sales of previously owned homes fell to the lowest pace since Covid began, down almost 6% from a year ago.

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Only 11% anticipate a hard landing marked by a deep recession. The rest expect a very short, mild recession.

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Even with 8.3% inflation, the American consumer keeps spending. Today’s Commerce Department reports showed April monthly sales up .9%/

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Bookings for US airlines dropped 17% last month as it gets more expensive to fly.

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Even down slightly from March’s 8.5, there isn’t much evidence that inflation has peaked.

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In a AAA survey, 42% said they wouldn't consider changing their travel plans regardless of what it costs to fill up.

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The roller coaster continues. But there is some good news....

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Will a 50 basis point hike slow down consumer demand and cool off red-hot inflation?

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For companies trying to staff up to meet needs, there are currently 11.5 million open jobs.

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Remember, the economy was coming off its best performance since ’84, up 6.9%.

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Big move from America’s largest retailer. Walmart is rolling out a program that shaves off 10 cents per gallon for Walmart Plus subscribers.

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But...some customers won’t receive their 2022 Ford F150 Lightnings until 2023.

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Proctor and Gamble's first quarter earnings prove an economic principle: pricing power.

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The International Monetary Fund slashed its outlook for 2022 and beyond, citing the Ukraine war and rising inflation. Add to that recent reports of a slowing Chinese economy and you have reason for concern.

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Used to be, when people heard Small Business, they thought of mom and pop operations. Nothing could be further from the truth

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Consumer Price Index—or CPI—came in hot again this month at 8.5%.

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The current pivot is to services like travel, restaurants, concerts, and all those delayed weddings

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Most white-collar workers only spend about 1/3rd of their day doing what they were hired to do.

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Most EV’s aren’t cheap, the US average is $60,000.

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One year ago: average was $2.86. Yesterday, $4-23. Will the Biden plan to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve help?

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In a survey of 2500 workers who switched jobs, 3/4's felt regret about their new job.

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19%+ year-over-year in January thanks to tight supply and strong demand.

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Initial weekly unemployment claims clocked in below estimates today at 187,000—the lowest since 1969

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That wasn’t free money—it was an advance. That also means refunds could be smaller for the 40 million taxpayers who received payments.

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According to a new survey, 44% of current employees consider themselves job seekers.

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Supposedly, 11% of account passwords are shared. With 222 million subscribers, that’s over 24 million hitchhikers.

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Consumers and business can expect to pay more for car loans, mortgages, and credit card balances

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Consumers still want to fly—even as airlines cut back on schedules and raised prices

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CPI is up 7.9%. The highest in 40 years.

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There are 11.26 million open jobs in the United States.

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Will there be a point where we’re forced to drive less? Or will consumers give up other things?

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Officially, there were 215,000 new claims. A year ago, that number was 750,000.

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Bond purchases, phased out. Inflation, far above 2%. Strong labor market. With that, Jerome Powell says he’s inclined to propose a 25-basis point federal funds rate hike

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Higher diesel prices increase the cost to move goods, but it’s the customer who winds up paying through fuel surcharges.

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For every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, we see a 25% increase at the pump.

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With US pressure in the form of painful sanctions, it’s possible we could suffer some blowback from a bad actor.

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Average home prices across major metropolitan areas rose nearly 19% for the year, the highest since the index began in 1987.

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As masks and mandates fade, Americans are itchy to DO THINGS.

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Overall retail sales for January were up 3.8% and 2% higher than expected.

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PPI surged 9.7% last month, off only slightly from December’s 12-year high.

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In 2016, there was a hack of bitcoins worth $71 million THEN but $4.5 billion NOW.

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A huge crisis for one of the stars of the pandemic era.

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There are four major Metaverse platforms, and you can buy property in them. But would you?

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Economists predicted 207,000 jobs added. Instead, there were over 300,000 jobs cut.

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4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in December while there are 10.9 million job openings.

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Over 30% of ads will be from first-time Superbowl advertisers.

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Each powered by the company’s most powerful stock engine ever.

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Ford Motor Company swamped with orders for their new $20,000 Maverick small pickup.

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Last year, more than 20 hacks across various platforms stole at least $10 million. 6 cases exceeded $100 million.

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The Ford Motor Company’s early investment in electric vehicle maker Rivian has turned into an $8.2 billion gain.

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$15 million in Ether drained.

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Tom Brady’s clothing brand, Brady, launched yesterday with a line of performance wear.

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Even with 6 billion out-of-stock messages online, more than $204 billion was spent online over the holidays.

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It will allow rolling stops, following other vehicles closely, swapping lanes frequently, and not moving from the left lane.

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With coronavirus infections driven by the Omicron variant expected to peak soon, a substantial rise in claims is unlikely.

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Demand is high for the Ford F150 Lightning. Production will double to 150,000 trucks per year by mid-2023.

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In 2020, Apple made a $2 trillion market cap driven by pandemic demand. Today, the company crossed the $3 trillion mark when shares hit $182.86.

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2 out of 3 shoppers will return at least one gift this season. In all $128 billion in goods will be returned.

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36% of shoppers owe an average of $1249.

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Despite the supply chain crisis, holiday retail sales increased 8.5% this year. Credit goes to early shopping driven by concerns about potential shortages.

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Consumers are confident. That’s good, because 70% of GDP is driven by the consumer.

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The median price of an existing home sold in November was $353,900, up almost 14%.

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Lumber prices still aren’t as bad as the dark days of May when futures hit $1700 per thousand board feet.

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Projections released today indicate Fed officials see as many as 3 rate hikes coming in 2022.

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With a nearly 10% bump in PPI, many companies have no choice except to raise prices to offset costs.

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The largest one-year bump since 2008?

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Available jobs in the US now stands at 11 million—up 400,000.

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Stellantis has announced a plan that could generate over $22 billion in revenue by 2030 through software services and subscriptions

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Dollar General is preparing for reduced sales and clients with less disposable income by opening a new set of stores.

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The IRS reports estate tax revenues less than half of where they were in 2018. As the ultra-rich take advantage of tax opportunities, you might want to, as well.

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Speaking before a Senate panel, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested we "retire" use of the word "transitory" in describing inflation.

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50 million sounds like a big number until you realize the US consumed over 18 million barrels a day LAST year—when demand for oil was low.

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West Coast conditions are now described as a slow crawl instead of bumper-to-bumper.

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Only 32% of Americans are planning to drive, a 35% decline from last year during the height of the pandemic.

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A survey of 150 C-suite executives shows 68% plan on wage and salary increases.

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Wild time for home sales. Pandemic full stop. Quick sales. Bidding wars. Rising prices. And some just giving up in frustration.

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CPI was worse than expected in October and its highest point in more than 30 years.

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The plan is to split into three separate companies; aviation, healthcare, and energy.

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The Labor Department reported the number of workers filing unemployment claims fell to 269,000. That’s still above the pre-pandemic average of 218,000 but far off the peak of 424,000 we saw in the middle-of-July.

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Measured from June, Ford sales are up nearly 11% despite the chip shortage.

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Scammers created a fake cryptocurrency, pulled in buyers, and raised the price to over $2800 per coin.

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The number of out-of-stock messages online is up 172% from January of last year.

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Burger King sales were down almost 2% last quarter while McD's was up nearly 10.

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For Tesla, it came courtesy of car rental company Hertz and an order of 100,000 vehicles.

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Hourly workers are now demanding tailored schedules with no weekends, late nights, or holidays

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In the first 4 weeks, the Korean drama was streamed across 142 million Netflix accounts.

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Realtors estimate that single-family starts and completions need to be above 1.5 million units per month to close the gap.

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Grand plan, but isn’t there an existing worker shortage?

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At the top is America’s most popular truck, the Ford F150 which was boosted over 44,000 times—a 13% increase.

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The good news is the 3rd quarter index is 67—and anything over 50 signals optimism.

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We’re seeing the highest prices in 7 years—up more than a dollar since a year ago.

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The German term Schadenfreude means ‘pleasure at someone else’s misfortune’. Plenty of it this week for Facebook.

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You've heard the old Vaudeville routine. The comedian says, "It's cold outside." Someone asks, "How cold is it?" We're seeing that in our economy today.

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While Congress debates its massive tax bill, another regressive fee is being charged to people and businesses all across America: inflation.

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One of the many supply chain issues we're facing is the plight of the trucking industry. While turnover has always been a problem, new forces threaten how goods are transported in America.

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The latest forecast has auto companies building 7.7 million fewer vehicles this year.

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The central bank could lift interest rates as early as next year, according to updated projections.

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This is less about logistics and more about pricing pressure as all carriers have seen demand skyrocket.

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The Long Beach port hit an all-time high yesterday with 92 ships waiting

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According to Redfin, the frenzy might be easing, competing offers have fallen to just over 58% of listings.

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Inflation softened slightly in August at 5.3% for the year—just below the 5.4% from the previous report.

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Even with last year’s 7% dip in audience, NFL games averaged 15.4 million viewers and made up 69 of the top 100 most watched programs

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July’s 10.9 million job openings was the 5th consecutive increase and a record high.

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Sign-on bonuses have increased by 454% across all sectors in the last year.

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All car tech is powered by semiconductors, and as you know, there is a global shortage.

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Logistics workers are in demand.

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The JD Power Initial Quality Survey is out. Sitting on top is the Dodge Ram truck.

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Make no mistake, 6.6% is an impressive number.

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Ford could be cranking out 80,000 electric F150’s a year.

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The headline continues to be the median price of a new home. It’s now at $390,500—up 18.4% from a year ago.

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Target reported a great quarter and we saw that Macy’s and Kohls both crushed earnings for Q2 and issued higher future guidance.

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In all, 7.8 million postpaid subscribers, 850,000 pre-paids, and just over 40 million past or current customers of T-Mobile might be at risk.

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In July, economists predicted a dip of .3%. Instead, retail sales were off by 1.1%.

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The theft of more than $600 million in cryptocurrency is possibly the largest in history.

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Overall, prices rose 5.4% year over year, the same number we saw in June.

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The ratio of opens to hires—even though better in June at 6.7 million and the 2nd largest since 2000, remain historically high.

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Since January 1st, the FAA has received approximately 2,500 reports of unruly behavior.

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Sharply lower at 330,000 private sector jobs. Blame went to bottlenecks in hiring.

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While mortgages led the way, non-housing balances were also up sharply.

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Ford’s CEO revealed 70% of the 125,000 orders for a new Bronco came from other brands.

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Key US-made Capital Goods had a solid increase in June and suggests healthy business spending that could stretch beyond this quarter.

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Consumer-packaged goods companies are shrinking package sizes while keeping prices the same—or even bumping them up slightly.

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Experts say back-to-school may offer a preview of what to expect over the holidays as retailers trim inventory to limit risk.

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As the reopening progresses—we’re seeing resiliency. According to a report from Yelp, more than 60,000 businesses have reopened since last year.

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Retail is facing a triple threat according to a new forecast from Salesforce.

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Online scammers had a big 2020, stealing a record $4.2 billion from Americans

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56% of Americans have used a BNPL service. Apple thinks there is opportunity there.

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Officially, June’s CPI was +.9%, the largest one-month increase in 13 years.

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Several studies indicate we're good at underestimating what we'll spend in retirement.

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May JOLTS data shows some cooling for the overheating jobs market. Job openings are still at a record high, but growth is slowing.

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As the economy grapples with inflation fears, Americans who purchase prescription drugs have faced prices that routinely outpace inflation.

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HR has its hands full balancing PTO, workloads, and way too many open jobs.

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AAA’s forecast has 47 million on the road between the 1st and 5th, the highest auto-travel volume ever.

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United Airlines sees a recovery ahead. It announced an order today for 270 jets—their largest purchase ever.

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Many economists are forecasting this could be the strongest year for the economy in 7 decades.

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American Airlines cancelled nearly 600 flights last weekend—and will cut more flights in July

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Day 1 sales were up 8.7% to $5.6 billion and could hit $7 billion total.

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Many are starting to ask: what’s up with the internet?

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Could this be a tipping point for EV’s in the US? GM is America’s largest automaker and wants to close the gap with Tesla

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Prices have dropped almost 40% from the record high on May 10th.

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Officially, the CPI was up 5%, the fastest pace in nearly 13 years.

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Americans pocketed $4.1 billion in Bitcoin profits in 2020 – more than any other country. China was 2nd, but only at $1 billion.

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Today’s 9.3 million record high number of job openings came in far past the estimate.

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Not everyone is taking the summer off. Private job growth in May blew past estimates with companies filling 970,000 positions.

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Mortgage applications fell 4% for the week. That’s the 2nd straight week and the lowest since February of last year.

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JBS is the world’s largest meat producer—and the latest cyberattack victim.

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Foot traffic and sales are up.

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They haven’t spent this kind of money since they scooped up Whole Foods for almost $14 billion in 2017.

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The largest since December 2005 and the 10th straight month of upward movement. 

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A recent report indicated that there are a record number of IRA and 401(k) millionaires in Q1 of 2021. The market's big surge played a role, but perhaps the pandemic taught us something.

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Even the most experienced market watchers have never seen anything like 2021, when a billionaire puts a cartoon picture onto a website and subsequently changes the markets. Hopefully, you have a team that has seen it all.

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Ford just unveiled it's new electric F-150 today, another indication that electric cars are part of our future. But can our electric grid handle all these new electric cars?

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Panic buying. Shortages. Long lines, fistfights, and people filling up plastic bags with gasoline.

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Overall prices have risen 4.2% over last year, the highest since September 2008.

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US job openings climbed to a record high in March.

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Because of the surge in lumber prices—the average new single-family home price has been pushed $36,000.

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Even off slightly, orders are extremely high with all 18 major industries reporting growth, the first time that’s happened since 2014.

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The best growth since 2003

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Key interest rates are staying near zero—a spot they’ve been in since March of last year.

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The last time the index was this high was February 2020, just before COVID slammed doors shut. This month’s reading is the 4th straight monthly increase.

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Like autos, prices are rising—but perhaps to the point where people are crying Uncle.

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Half of new car buyers are now paying within 5% of sticker price.

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There was certainly a North American story to tell with retail sales up 30% and sales of 32,000 bikes.

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Retail sales in March were through the roof, up nearly 10%. That’s the biggest jump since last May and blew past the 5.9% prediction.

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After opening at $381 per share, it had a fully diluted market value around $102 billion.

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The index that covers everyday items like groceries, clothing, recreation, and vehicles is up 2.6%.

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Uber drivers logging onto the app for driving gigs was down 40% in first quarter 2021.

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While Facebook, Reddit, and even NextDoor.com saw increased usage, the clear social media app pandemic winner was YouTube.

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TSA screenings have averaged at least 1 million per day for the last 26 days.

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ISM tracks 18 industries and says 17 expanded in March led by increases in production, new orders, and employment.

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69% of employers expect at least half of employees to work remotely some of the time.

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Home prices nationally are up over 11%year-over-year, the largest gain in nearly 15 years.

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The average US price hit $2.88 this week—a 30% increase from a year ago.

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There is a growing preference of only watching highlights and final scores, especially for 18–34-year-old fans.

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Men are more likely to ask with 59% of employed men planning to ask compared 48% of women.

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The rapid rise of materials is creating issues. Lumber prices are up over 170% in the last year.

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Most carriers confirm activity has been picking up for 3 weeks—Delta says 5. American’s bookings are just 20% below 2019.

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Manpower reports nearly 25% of companies plan to hire workers in the next quarter. 1/3 will be back to full strength by July, half by the end of the year.

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72% of CEOs surveyed say conditions for companies have already recovered—or will by the end of the year. Plans to hire more employees rose 30 points.

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The February orders for 82 aircraft mark the first time since November 2019 that monthly sales have outpaced scrapped orders.

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A new report from the US Census Bureau has revealed a majority of small businesses will not be requiring their employees to get tested or be vaccinated.

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We can debate whether or not the Mustang Mach-E electric SUV really is a Mustang, but one thing is certain: it’s taking market share from Tesla.

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People are consuming long-form entertainment but COVID changed the landscape, maybe for good.

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In 2016, the average American household had 2 streaming services. In 2019 it was 3. In 2020, it was 4. ViacomCBS thinks it’s time for a 5th.

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According to e-com platform Square, there was a surge in first-time Bitcoin buyers last month.

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Except for a subtle Bar and Shield on the tank, these bikes look nothing like their brothers.

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Based on a survey of 33,000 owners across 150 makes and models. 

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+5.3%. Take out autos and the number is closer to 6%.

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Gasoline prices have risen 6 straight weeks. The storms in Texas aren't helping.

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According to Walgreens— which is working with thousands of nursing homes and assisted care facilities—60% of employees at those facilities declined to take the shot.

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96.4 million is a big number but down 5% from last year and the lowest since 2007.

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ADP's January private payroll report showed 174,000 jobs were added back to the private sector in January, blowing past expectations.

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According to the American Gambling Association, a record 7.6 million Americans will place online bets this year—up 63%.

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In 2012, we used cash 40% of the time and two years ago, it was down to 26%.

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The Biden administration signed a series of Buy American executive orders that includes replacing the entire government fleet of 645,000 with all-electric vehicles.

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Mobs on Reddit forums are on the hunt for stocks with large short positions.

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For the first time since Superbowl 17, there won’t be a commercial for Budweiser.

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3 weeks ago, it wasn’t even in the top 1400. Now it is #7 overall

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40% of hiring managers say their organizations have been affected by talent scarcity—the highest in 5 years.

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It’s a technical partnership that has GM and Cruise using Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing platform for operations

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In the US, regulation jumped from 9th last year to 4th in 2021. Corporate tax concerns climbed from 14th to 5th.

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Disney Plus accounted for 6% of all December streaming while Netflix dipped 3%.  Of the top 10 streaming movies last year, Disney Plus had 7.

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Returns will cross $70 billion from the 2020 holiday shopping season alone. E-commerce returns jumped 70% in 2020.

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Amazon has purchased 11 Boeing 767 jets from Delta and WestJet with an average price of $14 million. 
Once converted for cargo hauling, the jets will join the Amazon Air fleet. 

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A new report finds almost 67% of US residents over 18 wouldn’t have a problem if they found out a home gadget is listening.

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American will have 91 daily flights using the 737 Max by late February or early March.

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To reach herd immunity, experts maintain that 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated.

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The largest growth is expected in to take place in mobile gaming, increasing almost 24% to over $87 billion.

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HBO Max could reach Roku’s 46 million US users—after they subscribe, of course.

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In a survey, 46% admitted to clocking out a little early to pour themselves a drink. Almost as many said they did it on the clock.

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$1 trillion in the 3rd quarter or an average of $17,000 per home.

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$80 million puts this event in the top 10 of the most-purchased fights.

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That’s closed forever, leading to staff layoffs and financial pressure for owners and landlords.

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According to one cable analyst, refunds and credits to pay-tv subscribers are underway and could hit $1.1 billion.

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Who will be at the front of the line? According to a government advisory panel, 21 million health-care workers and residents of nursing homes should be first.

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Cyber Monday’s nearly $11 billion made it the largest online shopping day in US history.

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The November/December prediction is an increase up to 5.2% with spending that could hit $755 billion.

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Online groups are sharing how to hack Peloton software so it can be used with competitive products.

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Wonder Woman 1984 will hit theaters on Christmas Day AND on HBO Max at no additional charge for subscribers.

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How many need to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity? Johns Hopkins says higher efficacy rates mean fewer people would have to be inoculated.

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In all, about 12 million of the 22 million positions lost during March and April have been recovered. After peaking at 14.7%, the unemployment rate is now 6.9%.

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We’ve had dark chapters in our country when veterans were disrespected, but for the most part, good and decent Americans still honor the men and women in the armed forces.

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We’re hitting the road this Thanksgiving. According to TripAdvisor, more than half of Americans will road trip somewhere.

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As COVID cases increase, even people who ARE heading into work are skipping the drive through and eating at home.

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After a long day of election coverage, we needed relief.

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Betting on elections in the US is prohibited. That’s not stopping the British from getting in on the action.

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Lordstown has very quietly received 40,000 reservations for it’s electric pickup.

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Previous management sought to expand into new markets with smaller bikes. That’s over. It’s now about big bikes with higher price tags.

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Coke is discontinuing half their drink portfolio. In all, 200 brands.

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Tonight’s the night for the unveiling of the GMC Hummer EV. It’s an S-U-T, or Sports Utility Truck.

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Peloton has been having quite a year. Now they’ve got a lawsuit to go with all that success.

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And why not? They’re #1 with 192 million worldwide subscribers.

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By most counts, there are 950 million iPhones on the planet—and of those, 350 million are in the window of upgrade opportunity.

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Tucked into those 5 million + pieces of mail is about 2.5 million income tax returns that haven’t been processed.

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If the future is a hybrid form of work-from-home, companies that get it right will have the advantage with recruiting and retaining talent.

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A new study says Black Friday will be the busiest retail day of 2020—even with traffic down up to 25%.

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The estimate from economists was low, missing by almost 100,000. Instead, 749,000 new jobs were created last month.

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Despite rising infections, unclear stimulus talks, and job worries, the American consumer is showing consumer confidence at its highest level since the start of the pandemic.

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In the latest survey that spanned two weeks in early September, the index has taken a positive turn after 9 down quarters.

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Tesla deliveries this year could be up between 30 and 40%. That means half-a-million new Teslas on the road.

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What hurts most for ABC was the terrible performance in 18-49 year olds which fell to a new low of 1.2 million viewers

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To no one’s surprise, back to school spending will set a record this year.

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No one expected Apple 5G phones, but what we did see was impressive.

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Black Friday used to be about long lines, doorbusters, and fistfights over big screen TV’s. That was before e-commerce reinvented what was almost an American holiday.

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The company looking to fill 33,000 corporate jobs with an average salary of $150,000.

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The race to a mass-market electric pickup truck got more interesting today when General Motors announced a new partnership.

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Officially, 881,000. This could be another sign that the jobs market is gradually recovering

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As a result of the work-from-home movement, many are saving more than time; they’re saving money.

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When the $600-a-week boost to unemployment lapsed, economists warned of disaster. So, what wound up happening? According to a JPMorgan analyst—not much.

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There are few recreational activities that offer built-in social distancing as naturally as golf.

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As Harley Davidson works through the Hardwire comeback plan, at least one new bike is off the schedule.

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The Dow has announced it is replacing 3 of its components to diversify by removing overlap and adding others to better reflect the American economy.

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Unlike everyone else, 2020’s been a good year for Apple.

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Same store sales, up over 9%. However, it’s Walmart’s e-commerce game that is killing it with a 97% increase.

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For the first time since mid-March, the number of laid-of Americans applying for unemployment has fallen below 1 million.

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TikTok is doubling down, hiring more US employees and aligning themselves with at least one member of America’s pastime.

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Amazon better circle the wagons.

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Researchers had issues every 8 miles with driver assist systems disengaging, sometimes without alerting the driver it had quit.

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Disney Plus now has more than 60 million subscribers and got there in less than a year.

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As it picked up steam, more than 1000 advertisers joined, ranging from major brands to mom-and-pops. So, did it work? For now, the answer is a solid maybe.

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The US economy was off by 33% annual rate in the April-June quarter. This was not a surprise.

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AMC Theaters and Universal Pictures have struck an unprecedented exclusivity deal. Is it a creative lifeline for an industry on the ropes?

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First was The Rewire from Harley Davidson. Next up is The Hardwire. Neither are bikes.

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Staring at tired paint and furniture are causing many Americans to get at projects—and that is helping companies in that space.

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Shortly after the US ordered China to close their consulate in Houston, staffers are burning what are probably sensitive documents.

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In a complete break in Black Friday tradition, all Walmart’s and Sam’s Clubs will close on Thanksgiving Day.

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Elon Musk called the shot last April when he predicted Tesla would deliver a Level 5 self-driving car by the end of this year at the latest. He said it again today.

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Quite a day today for Twitter when word leaked it might be working on a paid subscription model that could include a payment option.

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Amazon Prime has expedited delivery and Prime Video. It also has 150 million subscribers spending a yearly average of $1400. No wonder Walmart wants to take a run at it

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Add in Netflix, Hulu, Disney + and Amazon Prime and the monthly streaming bill is climbing closer to what many used to pay for cable.

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In terms of economic impact, the Goldman Sachs team thinks a mandated national mask policy could substitute for lockdowns which have the potential to subtract 5% from GDP growth.

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A day after being lauded for having 2 vehicles on the most-American-made list, Tesla landed dead last on the new 2020 Initial Quality Study from JD Power.

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There are roughly 350 car models on the market this year from 13 different automakers across 14 states.

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No doubt you’ve heard that day-trading with the work-from-home crowd is very popular. Be very careful.

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May’s 17.7% increase in retail sales is officially the largest in history.

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There are initial unemployment claims and then there are continuing claims. Economists feel continued claims are a better indicator of the state of the labor market with states reopening and workers heading back to their jobs.

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As the George Floyd protests began, many CrossFit gyms wanted the company to take a stand supporting the movement. On Saturday, CrossFit founder and CEO Greg Glassman did the opposite.

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Macy's was expecting to lose over $1 billion this quarter. But, with 450 stores now open with healthy digital sales and actual foot traffic, the loss has narrowed.

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Amazon has ordered 100,000 electric delivery vans from Rivian. UPS’ order with British startup Arrival is for 10,000. Between them, it’s a $4 billion market.

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Zoom isn’t an overnight sensation even though it seems like that. They’ve been around for 10 years, but when the work-from-home movement began, they hit light speed.

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As things open up, personal spending will be key to economic recovery as 70% of GDP is tied to the American consumer.

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Are 41 million people out of work? There have been 41 million claims but the current number of people receiving unemployment is 21 million.

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New home sales were up almost 1% in April compared to March. That doesn’t sound like much, but they were expected to drop 22%.

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Total filings have now fallen for 7 straight weeks—a flattening of another type of curve. But with a patchwork reopening around the country; it will take time.

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Facebook shares hit an all-time high earlier today on the news of the new Facebook Shops. Morgan Stanley says it could be a billion-dollar business.

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In a snapshot of pandemic consumer spending, Walmart, Home Depot, and Kohls have different stories to tell.

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According to a new survey from GasBuddy.com, over 30% of Americans are ready to road trip this summer

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Even with lower passenger volume, the new challenge might be having to arrive at the airport up to 4 hours preflight.

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One concern as we stumble toward reopening is luring workers back who would have to take pay cuts because of large unemployment checks. Can those workers refuse?

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Peloton is thriving in a pandemic world. Quarterly sales of their connected fitness line are up 66% with almost 900,000 subscribers.

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Last year, America couldn’t find enough truck drivers. Then, the business changed and almost 800 companies shut down.

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We’re driving less, so auto insurance companies are rebating customers. If you’re expecting the same from your cable company because there are no sports, take a seat on the bench. It’s not happening….yet.

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When all is said and done, Facebook exists to sell ads. In the early coronavirus days, sales dropped as major advertisers pulled campaigns. But, at the same time, usage was growing.

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Our old friend Beer is back led by budget brands like Miller Lite, Michelob Ultra, and Natty Light, all with double digit growth. Busch Light was the leader, up 44%.

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The Paycheck Protection Program relaunched yesterday and ran into the same technical troubles we heard about during the first round.

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As companies prepare to return to business, one of their biggest hurdles might be huge unemployment checks.

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This year’s NFL draft will be the most bet-on-ever with online sportsbooks estimating $5 million in wagers.

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As of April 12th, the share of loans in forbearance was a shade under 6% of all qualifying mortgages, a 60% increase from the previous week.

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It’s bad enough that coronavirus has killed thousands and damaged the economy. But the secondary infection of misinformation is another serious danger.

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Abbott Laboratories announced today the launch of its 3rd coronavirus test and said it could be screening up to 20 million people in the US for COVID-19 antibodies by June.

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The survey of over 300 CFO’s of US-based companies asked, If Covid-19 were to end TODAY, how long would it take for your company to get back to business as usual?

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Video com platform Zoom went from being Skype’s smaller competitor to the name brand in just a couple of weeks as we moved to working-at-home status.

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Love it. Hate it. It’s impossible to escape Tiger King on Netflix. If we weren’t all stuck inside—would this be the breakthrough hit it is?

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If you’re planning on reaching out your mortgage lender to request forbearance, be patient. 3 weeks ago, it was a 2-minute wait. Now, it’s pushing 20 minutes.

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When it comes to obeying stay-at-home and social distancing measures, compliance is a mixed bag.

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With most of the country practicing social distancing—and a legion of parents needing a break at the end of a long day with kids at home, alcohol sales are way, way up.

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Airbnb is hurting. They’ve lost hundreds of millions of dollars this year because of cancellations and that is also impacting hosts; the people who own the homes and apartments available to rent via the platform.

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There’s been plenty of talk about the $1200 checks as part of the $2 trillion stimulus bill. But not everyone gets a check.

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According to private network provider Nord VPN, workers who have shifted to remote workplaces are working longer days.

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The Ford F-150 is now part of the COVID19 fight as engineers at their Advanced Engineering Center are working with 3M to redesign air-purifying respirators for 1st responders and health care workers.

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With the shortage of ventilators for coronavirus victims, can private industry pitch in?

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After demands from the United Auto Workers to shut down US plants in the interest of worker health, the Big 3 automakers will suspend production to allow crews to clean facilities and boost containment of COVID-19.

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Amazon is making changes to its warehousing and shipment services to prioritize delivery of baby, health and household, beauty and personal care, grocery, industrial, scientific, and pet supplies along with other high-demand products.

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Add Amtrak to the list of services being affected by the coronavirus. Employees were told yesterday it was planning significant reductions in service as bookings have dropped 50%.

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75% of the supply chains of US companies are suffering coronavirus related disruptions. When key components are missing, production slows or even stops.

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A Florida couple still aboard the Grand Princess cruise ship docked in Oakland, California has filed a $1 million lawsuit against the ship’s operator accusing the company of gross negligence.

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European and Asian airlines are cancelling flights. Now, two carriers in the US have done the same.

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Up one day. Down the other. Blame the Vix.

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Two weeks early, the Fed makes a coronavirus-related move

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It should be no surprise that people are taking advantage of coronavirus fear. From inflated prices for surgical masks on Amazon to storefronts selling Pandemic Prep Kits, the cash grab is on.

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According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index, home prices have appreciated by nearly 3% year-over-year in December. At the FHA, their home price measure points to a 5.1% Q4 gain.

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Another feather in the cap for Elon Musk who’s enjoying the performance of Tesla stock at the expense of short sellers who were convinced the price would collapse.

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The new Burger King Whopper commercial contains a 34-day time-lapse where it slowly becomes covered in mold and consumed by green fungus.

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US companies are cautioning investors that first quarter sales could take a hit from the spread of coronavirus. Yesterday, Apple went public. The $1.4 trillion company put out a surprise investor update warning that it no longer expects to meet the revenue guidance provided last month.

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Wine coolers in the 80s. Zima in the 90s. Trendy beverages come and go, but are hard seltzers here to stay?

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The 2020 Brand Intimacy Study is out. It’s a survey of 6200 consumers to rank brands and their emotional link with fans.

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Total household debt balances have now climbed over $14 trillion for the first time.

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$2200 bikes and a 97% retention rate? Not bad.

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The new all-electric Amazon delivery van is an interesting story. But the company behind the vehicles is even more compelling. It’s Rivian, an electric vehicle startup backed by both Ford and Amazon.

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Tesla's market cap makes it the most valuable US car company.

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Altria spent a lot of money buying into vaping leader Juul for a LOT of money thinking it was the future. We all know how that went.

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McDonald’s has found its groove with strong quarterly results and the best annual US performance in 13 years. Total 2019 sales went past $100 billion.

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The British government announced today they will allow China's Huawei to help build the country's 5G networks in direct opposition to US concerns over national security.

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As more Americans struggle to repay loans, today’s FICO score change might shave off points from their credit scores.

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Even though he owns 20% of Tesla, CEO Elon Musk doesn’t receive a salary. But a big payday might be in his future.

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The beverage industry saw beer sales dip 2% last year while demand for hard seltzers outpaced supply and created the White Claw shortage last summer. For about the same alcohol content as beer with a low-calories, beverage makers figure they’ve got a hit on their hands.

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Heading into the holiday shopping season, the National Retail Federation anticipated spending growth between 3.8 and 4.2%. Good job. The real number arrived today and was 4.1%.

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The President called it transformative and China described it as win-win as the two sides signed the 8-part Phase One agreement.

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SUV's are good for the customer AND the car company

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Housing sales are slowing, but not for the reason you think.

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Can a couple enter a $1 million contest? Yes, but what happens when they WIN?

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What's the view from the corner office?

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When the Ford Mustang Mach-E was unveiled, the purists revolted. Guess what? Pre-orders are sold out.

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Between the strong economy and a shorter-than-average shopping window, 147 million Saturday shoppers set a retail record with $34.4 billion in sales.

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Supply and demand. At the very least, that’s what’s happening with existing home sales and the 1.7% drop for November according to the National Association of Realtors. The 5.3 million homes sold was the lowest since June and missed expectations by a mile.

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The goal was 20 million worldwide subscriptions in the first year, but Disney Plus blew past that in November with 24 million signups.

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With GM back to work, there was a 12.4% jump in the production of motor vehicles and parts in November. According to the Fed, production rose over 2% for consumer goods and nearly that much for business equipment.

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It's more than a 5-finger discount. Organized crime is paying addicts to steal merchandise for later resale.

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What's keeping CEO's up at night?

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Goodbye, NAFTA. Hello USMCA.

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The 20 new electric car models GM wants by 2023 will need batteries. GM has a plan to provide them.

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Even though GM is killing the Buick Regal for the US and Canada, you can still get one.....in China

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Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Doesn't matter, we shopped 'em all on our mobile devices.

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Black Friday used to be a very big deal. Not so fast, says Cyber Monday.

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Best Buy's strategy is paying off and Q3 is proof. How'd they do it?

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Between Walmart and Sam's Club, there are 400 stores in China. But Walmart is thinking bigger.

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Retail's not dead. Just ask Target.

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For $3 on the Dark Web, one can buy the username and password for Disney +.

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Between e-commerce and groceries, Walmart is doing something very, very right. And they keep doing it.

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Tesla's 3rd production facility will be in Germany, home of VW, Audi, BMW, and other very good car brands. What's the competition look like?

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Disney's new streaming service began today.  Besides the early crash, things look good.  

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6 cities to 5000? Is it too good to be true?

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The commercials are awesome. Indoor cycling classes from the convenience of your own (fabulous) home. Now, with the IPO in the rear-view mirror, how are things looking for Peloton? 

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Altria's $13b purchase of Juul flamed out

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Up IS up but there are concerns down the road.  For now, consumers are keeping the GDP numbers in a respectable range. 

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With an $800 billion market, some major players are putting their grocery delivery plans in place.  Amazon just made a move that could make a big difference. 

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The FDA is granting one company the ability to claim their tobacco product is 'less harmful' than cigarettes.  It's not a vape. What is it?

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Wow. Just wow. A company that goes from a supposed $47 billion valuation now might be worth only $8b. If that. 

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Never mind that Ford doesn't make an electric vehicle.  They will, and when they're on the road, they'll head to the FordPass EV charging network. 

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Manufacturing is slowing and might be affecting the general economy. What does this mean for a rate cut before the end of the year? 

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Some would FREAK if a stranger was in their house. Not for the first adopters of Walmart's new grocery delivery service where they PUT THE STUFF in the fridge.  For $20 a month. 

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Dyson says they don't see a profitable end to their electric vehicle project and is pulling the plug. 

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Big buzz about the latest survey from LinkedIn about working from home.  According to survey results, half of employees work from home at least once a week while many say they’d love to try.   

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The Harley Davidson LiveWire is a gorgeous peice of engineering and part of HD's strategy to create a next-generation rider.  There's one big problem. 

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Miss a little, miss a lot, we guess. Deliveries weren't up to par but other factors conspired to send the stock down. 

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Wisconsin is a fantastic state. Great people, places, sports teams, and, of course, beer and cheese. Then, there are taxes.  

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Well, this is awkward. Comments from Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg regarding Elizabeth Warren's plan to dismantle Big Tech is leaked and causes a hubbub. 

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Big News in the fake meat world. McDonald's is testing a plant-based meat alternative sandwhich.  In Canada. 

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They really have no choice.  The latest is a complete cessation of external media marketing. 

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Crash meets burn.  WeWork's CEO forced to step down.  

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Amazon's delivery vehicles emit a ton of CO2 emissions. Here's one step the company is making to reduce them. 

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Despite negative headlines and slow sales, Facebook still believes in its Portal line of smart speakers. Do you?

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Heading into the holiday shopping season, the National Retail Federation anticipated spending growth between 3.8 and 4.2%. Good job. The real number arrived today and was 4.1%.