Hawk-eyed: Recent Episodes
Vishnu Srinivas
Interviewing various business professionals and educators on market happenings, business strategies, and personal experiences.
Brad Setser—Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR)—joins me to discuss trade deficits, dedollarisation, and debt restructuring issues in countries around the world.
00:00 - Intro
00:21 - Brad Setser Welcome
01:43 - Working at the CFR
02:57 - Conducting research on countries
04:15 - Sri Lanka Default Crisis + Debt Restructuring
14:45 - Has deglobalization panned out?
19:45 - Can U.S. rely less on China in semiconductor manufacturing?
23:48 - U.S. and China trade imbalances to continue?
26:22 - Longevity of dedollarisation
28:36 - Why reserve currency status does not matter
32:29 - Dedollarisation undermines trade deficit?
@BradSetser @VishnuTreasurer
Helene Meisler—columnist for Real Money—joins me to discuss her methodologies for analyzing stocks and her prognostications for the markets, as well as sharing her own experiences covering stocks throughout her career.
00:00 - Intro
00:21 - Helene Meisler Welcome
02:40 - Lessons from analyzing stocks
05:08 - Investor mindset vs. company value
09:10 - How to find edges in efficient market?
12:30 - Flaws of stock metrics
18:45 - Industry-specific analysis?
24:44 - Reasons for overbought markets
28:28 - S&P outlook for 2023
34:10 - Oil market analysis
@hmeisler
@VishnuTreasurer
Mark Yusko—CEO of Morgancreek Capital Management—joins me to discuss the fallout from FTX/Blockfi and the latest developments in Bitcoin, as well as sharing his experiences as a hedge fund manager.
00:00 - Intro
00:21 - Mark Yusko Welcome
03:02 - Lessons from pioneering endowment model
08:45 - Differences b/w FTX and other crypto
18:48 - Is regulating crypto that easy?
24:06 - Tipping point of crypto cycle approaching?
30:51 - FED Bashing!
39:57 - Flaws in job reporting
43:17 - Inflation longevity
@MarkYusko @VishnuTreasurer
Hugh Hendry—former founder of macro hedge fund, Eclectica Asset Management—joins me to discuss the approaches of central banks and his insights into commodities, as well as reflect on the arc of Eclectica.
00:00 - Intro
01:26 - Hugh Hendry Intro
02:20 - Unpacking the term "hedge fund"
05:11 - Eclectica as a macro hedge fund
07:17 - What is the problem with the FED and Central Banks?
14:28 - Market reaction to credit risk + debt levels
18:02 - Efficacy of Quantitative Easing
22:20 - Rising dollar temporary phenomenon?
26:14 - Gold no longer a "safe haven"?
31:16 - Bitcoin hype train
33:02 - Investing in oil
In this latest installment, Tuomas Malinen—CEO and Associate Professor—joins me to discuss the controversy surrounding Credit Suisse and the future of European economies, as well as his own experiences running a macro consultancy.
00:00 - Podcast Intro
00:21 - Tuomas Intro
01:35 - Balancing busy life
03:25 - Challenges in macro forecasting
11:25 - Credit Suisse vs. Lehman Brothers
20:10 - Can central banks manage inflation + banking simultaneously?
28:11 - Credit Suisse a bad sign for European banking?
31:28 - De-globalization impact on European economies
34:24 - Steps towards positive European future
@mtmalinen
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Joseph Politano—Economic Analyst at Apricitas—joins me to discuss the outlook for inflation and the implications of a tight labor market, as well as his own research and experiences. Be sure to check out Joseph's writing on apricitas.io!
00:00 - Intro
00:21 - Joseph Politano Introduction
01:27- Experience working in Uganda
04:20 - Inflation here to stay?
08:08 - Japan's economic growth model
11:37 - FED approach to inflation black-and-white?
15:02 - Future of inflation - how will it differ?
20:58 - Cyclical vs. acyclical inflation
24:13 - Supply chain impact on inflation
26:53 - Labor market reporting
31:38 - Workers' negotiating leverage
37:08 - Employers facing recession + higher wages
@JoeyPolitano
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Jim Bianco—President and Founder of Bianco Research—joins me to discuss the fallout from inflation, panic in the FED, and potential implications (hope?) for investors.
00:00 - Intro
00:21 - Jim Bianco Introduction
01:53 - How do you develop your macro process?
03:37 - Biggest challenges that macro strategy presents
05:25 - What is the FED targeting with inflation?
08:46 - Current FED rate hike strategy effectiveness
13:33 - Inflation and recession here to stay?
15:24 - Historic relevance of recession metrics
17:35 - Impact on investors
24:32 - Implications of yield curve
27:04 - How should investors handle risk?
31:10 - Strong dollar = optimism?
@biancoresearch
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Will Diamond—Assistant Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of Business—joins me to discuss his latest area of research, involving convenience yields and interest rates, as well as some of his other involvements in academia.
00:20 - Intro
02:08 - What goes into deciding your next topic of research?
04:35 - Origins behind passion for banking
06:06- Defining convenience yields
08:23 - Relationships between convenience yields, interest rates, gov't bonds
10:11 - Any takeaways from convenience yields in EM's vs developed countries?
11:57 - Role of safe asset demand with respect to convenience yields
14:32 - How can we improve monetary policy with this knowledge?
@wdiamond_econ
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Lakshman Achuthan—Co-Founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute—joins me to discuss the behavior of economic cycles and the trajectory for inflation, as well as offer his own recession assessment.
00:21 - Intro
02:15 - Process of analyzing cycles
07:36 - Weighting the composite of recession indicators
18:30 - Can policymakers learn from inflation cycles?
32:35 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @niknike80 - Inflation outlook over next 6 months, are investors prematurely rejoicing?
37:04 - Relationship between inflationary and recessionary cycles
@businesscycle
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Michael Green—Chief Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management—joins me to discuss the effects of the FED's policies, the proliferation of passive investing, and the biggest risks to our economy.
00:20 - Intro
05:57 - 2 consecutive quarters negative GDP + inverted yield curve = ?
10:09- What inflation benchmark is FED aiming for?
13:32 - Interest rate hikes affecting the wrong metric?
17:10 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @ng_mwn - If Fed hadn’t monetized huge fiscal spending in response to Covid, would inflation be different now?
19:10 - Causes behind rise of passive investing
23:49 - Efficient market hypothesis and passive investing
29:33 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @Jeffsharpe10 - Boomer retirements and passive flows
35:22 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @slapdash_ - Michael's hypotheses in 2016 proven right? (passive flow impact on small cap + target date + smaller float)
41:05 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @macroleverageTP - Biggest systemic risk now?
43:25 - Evaluating risk in emerging markets
47:50 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @inflexion - Why no more sous vide tweets?
@profplum99
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Tavi Costa—Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital—joins me to discuss recession implications and the commodity landscape, as well as his macro process.
00:21 - Intro
01:23 - What defines your global macro model?
04:10 - Underreacting vs. overreacting to macro events
08:04 - Oil selloff: kneejerk response to recession or long-term move?
10:17 - In the midst of a recession?
13:41 - Similarities and differences with the 70's
17:32 - Gold and silver: still safe havens?
20:01 - Future of energy and agriculture
22:34 - Evaluating risk in emerging markets
@TaviCosta
@VishnuTreasurer
In this latest installment, Karthik Sankaran—Market Strategist at Corpay—joins me to discuss Sri Lanka's impact on other emerging markets, parity between the Euro and the Dollar, and his background in European history and macro strategy.
00:21 - Intro
04:34 - How has your background in European history cultivated your understanding of global macro?
10:44 - Challenges/Lessons from experience in macro strategy
14:02 - Factors driving situation in Sri Lanka apply to other emerging markets?
16:08 - Debt defaults now a concern for emerging market investing?
21:18 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬from @Macro_Maniac_ on FED and ECB's degrees of freedom to operate
24:49 - Euro-USD parity: strength of the dollar or weakness of the Euro?
31:27 - Cheapness of weak currencies leading to higher demand?
38:04 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬from @MayankSeksaria on puns 😁
@VishnuTreasurer
@RajaKorman
In this latest installment, Arpit Gupta—Professor of Finance at NYU Stern—joins me to discuss inflation across nations, business models post-COVID, and some of his own research.
00:21 - Intro
00:54 - What goes into deciding your next topic of research?
01:50 - Supply shock vs. excess demand: does it make a difference when it comes to inflation?
03:09 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @thischeena: Will other countries follow Japan's low economic growth model?
06:03 - Do companies benefit from returning to offices?
10:11 - 📬Mailbag Question 📬 from @kalpavrukshcap: What tools does the Federal Reserve have to address inequality?
Series of 📬Mailbag Questions 📬 from @PradyuPrasad:
12:29 - Does ESG investing affect factorless income?
16:14 - To what extent are private equity returns real if a few large investors are just trading things back and forth?
19:11 - In hindsight, how would you redo India's economic policy during COVID?
@VishnuTreasurer
@Arpitrage
In this latest installment, Cliff Asness—billionaire hedge fund investor and Managing Principal/Co-Founder of AQR Capital Management—joins me to discuss value and momentum investing, market efficiencies, and the biggest lessons he's learned from running a hedge fund.
00:23 - Intro
05:38 - Demystifying the "hedge fund" label
08:44 - Takeaways from investment management
15:16 - 📭Mailbag Question 📭 from @lhamtil on dual factor investing
19:35 - What is driving the resurgence in value investing?
25:19 - 📭Mailbag Question 📭 from @Bonhoeffer_KDS on alternative investment classes
25:29 - Are markets inefficiently responding to inflation?
34:01 - 📭Rapid Fire Mailbag Questions 📭 from @Macro_Maniac_ , @voiceofgray , and @avataram on 1970's comps, emerging markets, and chess!
In this latest installment, Lawrence Hamtil—Investment Advisor at Fortune Financial Advisors—joins me to discuss portfolio construction, market uncertainty, and the crypto meltdown.
@lhamtil
@VishnuTreasurer
00:00 - Intro
01:52 - How did you get interested in investing?
04:15 - How to navigate market full of uncertainties?
07:48 - Any truth to 70's comparisons?
09:39 - Advantages of sector-neutral portfolio
12:25 - Tech selloff - short-term reaction or potential bubble repeat?
16:00 - WTF happened with crypto?
In this latest installment, Viral Acharya—Professor of Finance at NYU Stern, joins me to discuss how India is dealing with oil/inflation issues and what to expect from the U.S. economy in the coming months, as well as reflect on his time as Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
00:00 - Intro
03:32 - Takeaways from Acharya's experience as Deputy Governor of the RBI
12:21 - Will the RBI's aggressive approach towards inflation pay off?
18:52 - India's bond yield + oil prices going up - long-term issue?
24:16 - Will the U.S. actually hit a recession or can we brace the fall?
27:55 - Unpacking the dichotomy of strong (?) labor market with recessionary fears
In this latest installment, world-famous venture capital investor Bill Janeway joins me to discuss the unicorn bubble and the innovation economy, as well as recount stories from his VC experience. Be sure check out Bill's book, "Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy" at the link below!
https://www.amazon.com/Doing-Capitalism-Innovation-Economy-Reconfiguring/dp/1108471277
00:00 - Intro
02:26 - Bill's journey in venture capital + funny stories
10:25 - Challenges in VC investing
20:05 - Ancillary value that VC investors provide to firms
27:09 - Unicorn bubble of the 2010's: what makes it different from the previous decade?
35:24 - Will strong private funding continue in tech?
37:52 - Breaking down investing in the innovation economy
45:51 - The government's role in driving the innovation economy
"William H. Janeway has lived a double life of 'theorist-practitioner,' according to the legendary economist Hyman Minsky, who first applied that term to him twenty-five years ago. In his role as 'practitioner,' Bill Janeway has been an active growth equity investor for more than 40 years. He is a senior advisor and managing director of Warburg Pincus, where he has been responsible for building the information technology investment practice, as well as a director of Magnet Systems and O'Reilly Media. As a 'theorist,' he is an affiliated member of the Faculty of Economics of Cambridge University, a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council and the Fields Institute for Research in the Mathematical Sciences, and of the Advisory Board of the Princeton Bendheim Center for Finance. He is a co-founder and member of the Governing Board of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), and a member of the Board of Managers of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF). Following publication in November 2012, his book Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets Speculation and the State (Cambridge University Press) became a classic. The fully revised and updated second edition, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Reconfiguring the Three-Player Game between Markets, Speculators and the State was published in May 2018." (billjaneway.com)
In this latest installment, Logan Mohtashami—Lead Analyst for HousingWire—joins me to discuss the historic rise of mortgage rates, the hysteria over a potential housing bubble, and the implications of the housing supply shortage. Be sure to check out the rest of Logan's work at the link below!
https://www.housingwire.com/tag/logan-mohtashami/
00:00 - Intro
01:25 - Unpacking strong mortgage demand in the face of rising mortgage rates
03:54 - Latest drop in mortgage applications: too soon to rush to judgement?
06:01 - Comparisons to the 2000's bubbles: in-bounds or out-of-bounds?
09:07 - Recessionary fears washing over participants in the housing market?
11:54 - Putting common housing metrics in context
13:47 - Effects of additional interest rate hike on the housing market
16:49 - How do we address the housing supply shortgage?
In this latest installment, Katharina Pistor—Professor of Comparative Law at Columbia Law School—joins me to discuss the role of law in creating inequality, how corporations continue to manipulate it, and what we can do to increase its effectiveness.
00:00 - Intro
00:48 - How does the law create inequality?
03:12 - Irony of "legal arbitrage"
05:33 - Exploitation of COVID recovery plans
07:55 - Example of corporations "bending" the law
11:36 - How to make legislation more robust?
In this latest installment, Surjit Bhalla—Executive Director of the IMF for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka—joins me to discuss India's eradication of extreme poverty, its record-high tax revenue and exports, and the future outlook of the country.
00:00 - Intro
01:21 - Eradication of India's extreme poverty
12:08 - Explaining the RBI's decision-making regarding interest rates
22:30 - India's record-high exports and tax revenue
26:46 - India's future outlook and keys to success
In this latest installment, Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-at-Home Macro Consulting and former Federal Reserve and White House economist, joins me to discuss the possibility of an impending recession, the aftermath of last summer's unemployment benefit cuts, and the biggest issue that the FED must address now.
00:00 - Intro
02:09 - Reaction to unemployment benefit cuts last summer
05:42 - Possibility of a recession
13:21 - Low unemployment + high consumer spending = net positive?
20:36 - Certain factors out of FED's control if Russia-Ukraine conflict ensues?
26:22 - Demand/Supply disequilibrium still an issue for the future?
In this latest installment, Palak Patel—author of The Tyranny of Nations—joins me to discuss the current state of emerging markets, their future outlook, and the strategies behind investing in them.
00:00 - Intro
01:08 - Are emerging markets the most vulnerable area right now?
05:10 - Weighing the risk factors in emerging markets investing
07:37 - Macro vs. micro approach to EM investing
09:37 - Moving away from BRICS grouping?
14:05 - Export market high for emerging markets
17:04 - Good idea for U.S. to increase interest rates?
In this latest installment, Girish Muckai, Chief Sales & Marketing Officer at HEAL Software, joins me to discuss the expansion of Artificial Intelligence in the wake of COVID, the moral and legal implications of AI, and the future of machine learning.
00:00 - Intro
01:26 - AI development during COVID
04:09 - What will be the most profound development in AI?
06:07 - Importance of explainable AI
08:44 - Barriers to AI development
15:38 - Future of machine learning
19:44 - Biases and moral implications in AI
In this latest installment, Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor of India, joins me to discuss the recent success story of India's economy, how it can combat a prevailing inflation issue, and the recovery landscape of small businesses.
00:00 - Intro
01:12 - India's economic success
04:22 - How can India resolve oil market issues?
06:46 - India's booming export market
09:54 - Should India raise interest rates?
13:03 - Overreacting/underreacting to events when making economic policy decisions
15:15 - Outlook for small businesses in India
In this latest installment, Prof. Anu Nagarajan, Professor of Strategy at the Ross School of Business, joins me to discuss the supply chain crisis, as we dive into gas prices and the future of electric vehicles.
00:00 - Intro
00:48 - Supply chain crisis inevitable?
02:57 - Supply/demand disequilibrium to continue in the future?
05:29 - Rise in prices since COVID recovery
08:31 - Has the time come for consumers to shift towards electric vehicles?
12:24 - Business strategy transformation in the midst of these risk factors
Our guest for this latest installment is David Levy, Chief Executive Officer of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, an economics consulting firm. Tune in to hear our discussion about the widespread uncertainty in global markets and what that means for investors and consumers.
00:00 - Intro
04:40 - Are businesses ready to move past COVID?
10:49 - Inflation issue a result of supply or demand changes?
19:11 - Supply chain crisis - an accident waiting to happen?
29:50 - Inflation concerns overblown in the midst of high GDP + consumer demand?
35:56 - FED hiking interest rates the answer?
41:51 - Under-the-radar risk factors in global economy
49:52 - How do you bake in market uncertainties when forecasting economy?