The Trajectory Africa is a “pop-up” podcast exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. With the unique African landscape—market characteristics, business environment, goals, and culture—as a starting point, The Trajectory Africa aims to identify a destination for African tech, as well as the sign posts that signal direction of travel. It’s modeled on the concept of a mixtape, in which each episode, or “track” will feature a conversation with a “guest artist”, and a playlist for inspiration.
Welcome to The Trajectory Africa: Rewind, the summary episode for the Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa.
Over the course of 11 episodes, the series explored: the key characteristics of African markets; the opportunities presented by digital commerce, SME financing and fintech, and how they power the broader venture opportunity; what drives fund performance in terms of economics and structure; how funds raise money, and how LPs make investment decisions.
The Rewind features key insights from the series, distilling them into six “principles” (or principles in training) that help explain the emerging logic behind VC opportunities in Africa.
In this episode, we break down these principles:
It also presents some thoughtful observations about the challenges faced by African (women) GPs as they raise funds, and what impact the impending global slowdown will have on African VC opportunities.
Featured Resources and Recommended Track:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 11 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Babacar Seck. Babacar is an investor passionate about projects that drive inclusive development, from education to healthcare and financial services. As a senior investment professional at Proparco, he focuses on designing and deploying a €200M venture capital program to fund and support African entrepreneurs while also managing a global investment portfolio of banks, insurance, and fintech.
Prior to Proparco, Babacar led key areas of strategy and development for AXA, a €1 trillion insurance firm, working under the Chairman and CEO. In his spare time, Babacar supports Africa-focused initiatives, as the Chair of the Sciences Po Alumni Africa Division, and as a member of Africultures and the Association of African Actuaries, respectively.
In this episode, the final one of the series, we discuss:
Babacar’s Recommendations & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 10 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Danai Musandu. Danai is a Senior Investor Relations Associate at HPE Growth, where she leads and supports the public and investor relations function, with a focus on fundraising and strategic communication.
Prior to HPE, Danai was an Investment and Investor Relations Associate at Goodwell Investments, an early-stage technology private equity firm focused on emerging markets and impact investing. Danai is an advisory board member of Private Equity International and the Africa Trust Group, and holds a BCom. in politics, philosophy and economics, as well as a postgraduate honors degree in Economics from the University of Cape Town.
In this episode, we discuss:
Danai’s Recommendations & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 9 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Adenike Sheriff. Adenike is the Co-founder of Future Africa, a fund manager that invests early in mission driven founders solving hard problems for large markets. Prior to Future Africa, Adenike focused on content strategy and storytelling for technology companies in Africa and beyond. Her work has appeared in various international publications including the Huffington Post.
In this episode, we discuss:
Note: This conversation was recorded in September 2021.
Adenike’s Recommendations & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 8 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Eghosa Omoigui. Eghosa is the founder and Managing General Partner of EchoVC Partners, a seed and early-stage technology venture capital firm investing in underrepresented founders and underserved emerging markets. Prior to Echo, Eghosa worked for Intel, and in his last role served as the Director of Consumer Internet & Semantic Technologies for Intel Capital. A Kauffman Fellowship mentor, Eghosa is also engaged with organizations that support women founders and angel investors such as Astia, where he’s on the Venture Advisory Board, and Rising Tide Africa, where he’s a Board member. He attended law school at the University of Nigeria and University of Pennsylvania and business school at Babson College.
CORRECTION: In the intro to this episode, I erroneously referred to Eghosa as a Kauffman Fellow. He is a mentor for theKauffman Fellowship. Also, EchoVC is always EchoVC, not Echo.
NOTE: If you're struggling with the mental math featured in this episode, please see the FAQ with Eghosa at the bottom of the show notes. It should help to clarify the underlying logic.
In this episode, we discuss:
Eghosa’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
FAQ with Eghosa:
Portfolio construction is the short answer. If you assume you own 10% of a startup at exit, then $500m of enterprise value created returns $50m. So it's not solely a scenario where a company in the portfolio exits at $500m, but what percentage you own at the exit. By the time you assume dilution, it gets harder to own 10% at exit.
2. Why does it take 10 Paystacks to return a $50M fund?
With Paystack, assume the exit multiple was 14.4x and assume you invested $1m into it. That is a $14.4m return sans dilution. You'd need to do that 10 times to return ~3x the fund.
This is not impossible but the assumptions about the entry price and the dilution that occur during the path to exit mean that the Paystack example is unusual. It raised just a Seed and a Series A prior to its $200m exit so the dilution was not material. Many companies may raise 3 or 4 times and that is where your starting ownership goes to die. I have seen quite a few Series Es and Fs. Series Gs and Hs exist.
3. How do the outcomes change when you introduce failure rates?
A ten-year $50m Africa fund with a 2.5% fee and expenses may leave you ~$38m to actually invest but let's use $35m of investable capital to illustrate. Let's say your strategy is to invest $1m checks, and assume you reserve $10m to defend your pro rata in certain deals. FWIW, a 20% reserve ratio is on the low side and it's more common to see 30-50% of the fund set aside for reserves.
You make 25 investments (25 * $1m = $25m), and your avg postmoney entry valuation is $10m so you buy 10%. Then you apply your reserves to defend your pro rata at the A (which are usually $15m+ rounds) so your check size is say, $1.5m. That means you can do ~6 follow-ons to protect your initial 10% holding.
If all 6 exit after that point so they don't raise again (almost statistically impossible), then you hold 10% of the aggregate exit value. You would have invested $2.5m ($1m initial check plus a $1.5m follow on) into each of the 6. Assuming they are all Paystack type exits at $200m (sure, everyone thinks they will be unicorns but actual exit data belies that) then your gross return from the 6 companies is $120m (10% * $200m per company * 6 companies).
But remember we started off by investing in 25 companies.
If 50% fail to return 1x or better, (remember that batting .300 (3 in 10) in major league baseball likely gets you in the hall of fame) then we are looking at ~13 companies to drive the fund returns. Of these 13, 6 based on our example will return $120m. Maybe the remaining 7, representing $7m of investments return 3x (unlikely but let's say so just for shits and giggles). Then the aggregate fund return is $120m + $21m = $141m.
On first read, that's a smashing success for a $50m fund and delivers the 20% carry (profit share) to the manager.
Here are some quick calculations to illustrate the return multiples.
$141m: dollars returned.
$35m: dollars invested by the GP.
$50m: dollars invested by LPs.
$141m/$35m = 4.02x $-at-work gross;
$141m/$50m = 2.82x trued up gross;
$141m - $50m [$91m] * 80% [$72.8m] + $50m [$122.8m] ÷ $50m = 2.45x net to LPs.
This example of course assumes no recycling i.e. the GP taking interim returns from early exits and reinvesting so that (s)he can get to invest the full $50m and not the $35m after fees. Doing so improves the odds for the fund as more dollars are working via startups and not just underwriting fees and expenses.
2.45x is still a great VC fund net return (that should put you in the top decile globally) but don't get too excited as Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity (multi-$B PE funds) have exceeded this threshold.
But to have six Paystack exits (and seven 3xrs) is quite the dream. I'd sleep in for that.
This then leads us to the power law. That is, one company sets up to return the whole fund. But for that to happen in a $50m fund, you have to have at least one $1b exit and own 5% of the company at exit (and after dilution). With the fundraising froth and (increased) round sizes, many companies would have raised 4-5 times before they become unicorns. That's at least 3-4 dilutive rounds.
This brings us full circle to why the entry price always matters. Buying 10% for $1m makes it harder to own 5% at a billion dollar exit. Buy 20% and then you have a shot.
But the entry prices are now so high (e.g. valuations for pre-seeds in the high single digits and seeds in the high teens or more) and the competition to invest is so excitably frothy (with price-insensitive investors committing hundreds of thousands of dollars after the first meeting), that $50m funds may actually need up to three unicorn exits to have a shot at returning 1x.
This business is like many others. It may seem easy from the outside looking in but it's really much harder than it appears and takes a long while to be successful. I am grateful to have found a career that I love and would do for free but make no mistake, it requires a ton of hard work, conviction, adaptability, and luck.
Barbara Iyayi is an entrepreneur and investor with over 16 years of experience in venture capital, growth equity, and financial services. She has founded, invested in, scaled and advised, fintech and financial services companies globally. Currently, Barbara is the CEO & Founding Partner of Unicorn Growth Capital, an early-stage VC firm investing in the future of fintech. She also sits on the board of the World Wide Web Foundation.
Prior to launching Unicorn, she was the Chief Growth Officer and Managing Director for Africa of Element, a pioneer of mobile deep learning, and served as the Board Chair of Appzone, a fintech infrastructure platform enabling the delivery of digital financial services in Africa. Barbara was a member of the founding team of Atlas Mara, Africa’s first SPAC, and conducted $15 billion in global transactions for JPMorgan and UBS. Barbara received a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science from Columbia University, and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
In this episode, we discuss:
Barbara’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
https://spoti.fi/2RS6hTc
Welcome to Track 6 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Hilda Moraa. Hilda is the Founder & CEO of Pezesha, a holistic digital financial infrastructure powering embedded finance to SMEs and institutions across Africa. She is an award-winning entrepreneur and author, who has more than 10 years of experience in fintech, regulation, and working with supply chain-driven multinationals such as Coca-Cola. Prior to launching Pezesha, she founded WezaTele, a Kenyan fintech startup that was acquired in 2015. Hilda has been named a Top 30 African Innovator by Quartz Africa, and an Obama Foundation Leader. Picking up on the previous conversation with Kuhle Mnisi of Secha Capital about the interplay between tech-enabled SMEs and tech startups, I chat to Hilda about how she’s building a tech company that’s creating an (eco)system of tech products to connect SME borrowers to capital.
In this episode, we discuss:
Hilda’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 5 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Kuhle Mnisi. Kuhle is a Principal at Secha Capital, which she joined to marry her finance skill with a deep passion for impact. Prior to joining Secha, Kuhle worked as an Assistant Lecturer at the University of Cape Town, and interned with Act in Africa, a design thinking and entrepreneurship development program, as well as Goldman Sachs in investment banking and PwC in auditing. In this conversation, Kuhle and I explore the SME investment opportunity, how it’s similar to and different from tech, and the ways in which tech-enabled SMEs and tech ventures play complementary roles in the broader venture ecosystem in Africa.
In this episode, we discuss:
Kuhle's Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 4 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. This episode’s guest artist is Abieyuwa Obaseki, a consultant at Stears Data, a division of Stears Business. Stears’ mission is to make it easy for anyone anywhere in the world to access high quality information and data on Africa. Abieyuwa currently focuses on delivering insights to, for, and about Nigeria’s technology and innovation ecosystems. Prior to Stears, she was a strategy consultant, advising clients in the UK across multiple sectors such as banking, telecoms, and consumer goods.
In this episode, we discuss:
Abieyuwa’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 3 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. Jake is a Co-founder of the DFS Lab, an early-stage investor and accelerator that supports entrepreneurs to refine, grow, and launch digital commerce ventures in Africa. He is formerly a Deputy Director with the Financial Inclusion team at the Gates Foundation, where he funded and worked closely with M-Pesa and many other successful mobile money innovations that comprised the first and second waves of success across Africa and South Asia. Prior to joining the Foundation, he served as an economist with the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP) at the World Bank.
In this episode, we discuss:
Jake’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
Welcome to Track 2 of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. It’s inspired by the concept of a mixtape, in which each episode, or “track” will feature a conversation with a “guest artist”. There is also a soundtrack for inspiration provided by (DJ) Saphir Esmail via his Spotify playlist (link below).
Our guest artist is Dotun Olowoporoku. Most recently, Dotun was an Associate Director at Novastar Ventures, an early stage fund that invests in businesses addressing the biggest problems for the low income mass markets in Africa. Prior to joining Novastar, Dotun was the Managing Partner and co-founder at Growthlab (previously Starta) a startup advisory firm for high growth startups in Africa. Dotun started his career as a research fellow on air quality and climate change in Bristol, England. In 2012, he founded an on-demand food delivery platform, leading the startup to scale across 3 cities in the UK and facilitated a strategic partnership with Just-Eat UK Plc in 2015. Dotun has a PhD in environmental management. He is the host of Building the Future podcast which chronicles African growth narrative through one-on-one conversation entrepreneurs, thought leaders and innovators shaping the African future.
In this episode, we discuss:
Dotun’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist:
Welcome to Track 1, the inaugural episode of The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. With the unique African landscape—market characteristics, business environment, goals, and culture—as a starting point, The Trajectory Africa aims to pinpoint a destination for African tech, and the signposts that signal direction of travel. It’s inspired by the concept of a mixtape, in which each episode, or “track” will feature a conversation with a “guest artist”. There is also a soundtrack for inspiration provided by (DJ) Saphir Esmail via his Spotify playlist (link below).
My guest artist is Tony Chen. Tony is a Partner at Verdant Frontiers and Co-Founder of Kinyungu Ventures. Tony has enjoyed 24+ years creating new businesses, launching five companies with multiple exits. He co-founded Redica Systems (formerly Govzilla), a SaaS business he led as CEO for 8 years until 2017. Tony and his family lived in rural Kenya for three years, where he built a portfolio of 15 Kenyan companies. Tony is also on the Investment Committee for Triphammer Ventures. Tony earned a BS in Chemical Engineering from Cornell University and an MBA from Northwestern Kellogg School of Management.
In this episode, we discuss:
Tony’s Recommended Track & Featured Resources:
DJ Saphir’s Spotify Playlist: https://spoti.fi/2RS6hTc
This is a brief introduction to The Trajectory Africa, a podcast series exploring the trajectory, or pathway, of venture capital and startup formation in Africa. With the unique African landscape—market characteristics, business environment, goals, and culture—as a starting point, The Trajectory Africa aims to pinpoint a destination for African tech, and the signposts that signal direction of travel. It’s inspired by the concept of a mixtape, in which each episode, or “track” will feature a conversation with a “guest artist”. There is also a soundtrack for inspiration provided by (DJ) Saphir Esmail (bio below) via his Spotify playlist (link below). You can find more African tech and VC resources below as well. Enjoy!
About Me:I've has spent several years working in African tech and entrepreneurship, with an emphasis on building enabling infrastructure such as tech hubs and accelerators. Recently, I have focused on conducting research, specifically on early stage investing in Africa with Kinyungu Ventures and thesubtext, the role of tech hubs in African startup ecosystems for the International Trade Centre, shared models of ownership for the Open Society Initiative for West Africa, and the future of work in Africa with the RSA. Prior to this I served as a Senior Consultant with infoDev/the World Bank Group for XL Africa, and as the first Executive Director of AfriLabs.
About Saphir Esmail:
Saphir is a dual degree MBA/MA candidate at The Wharton School and The Lauder Institute with a focus on Africa. He is from Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo. Saphir graduated from Temple University with a degree in Finance. After graduating, Saphir went on to work for Deloitte as a consultant focused on the financial services industry. Saphir is passionate about entrepreneurship and venture capital in Africa. He has spent the past year working at Golden Palm Investments, an early-stage fund that invests exclusively in Africa across various industries. After Wharton, Saphir hopes to make his way back to the continent to work at an Africa-focused fund.
Spotify Playlist:This playlist was originally used at the 2021 Lauder Institute Africa Symposium on the Future of Work.
https://spoti.fi/2RS6hTc
Chasing Outliers:https://kinyungu.com/chasing-outliers/
African Tech and VC Resources:
Podcasts
Newsletters/Substacks
Live Sessions with Recordings