Daybreak with Anton: Recent Episodes
Anton Bayer
As an investment advisor and pilot, Anton incorporates topics on investing strategies with his love for aviation with guests that have insights on finances and unique adventures.
Most major U.S. market indices have staged an impressive rebound since establishing their lows on March 30, 2026. The S&P 500 has now moved back into a technically solid bullish trend, with its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all turning higher. This is an important indication that both short-term momentum and longer-term market direction have shifted back in favor of the bulls.
Leading the advance has been the NASDAQ Composite, which has surged 19.63% since March 30, while the S&P 500 has posted a strong gain of 13.09% over the same period.
Listen in this UPdate our views on this recent uptrend, if it will last, and a new trading anomaly developed in 2026.
Throughout my career, I've often heard people argue that the stock market is rigged, corrupt, or tilted in favor of wealthy, well-connected investors. Many believe the average individual has little chance of success. Like most generalizations these comments stray wide of reality. Having spent nearly 40 years investing in the stock market, I've learned not to get worked up too much by these views. Listen to this UPdate distinct comparisons between the fast growing predictions market (gambling) and investing. Most importantly the devastation that this new form of gambling is having on people and families.
U.S. equities rallied strongly from 2022 to early 2026, led by large caps, before Iran conflict fears triggered declines and unusual drops in precious metals. Markets turned volatile, with leadership shifting to smaller caps. The focus remains on risk management, timely reentry, and monitoring oil, rates, inflation, and geopolitical developments. Listen in this UPdate our portfolio management strategies for the past five years and our goal to capitalize on growth opportunities and minimize risks during the market downturns.
Before the war with Iran, both investors and consumers were already facing significant uncertainty about the outlook for their finances and the broader U.S. economy. Investors were focused on several key issues, including the future path of Federal Reserve interest rates, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, rising inflation, and the potential effects of tariffs.
Consumers, meanwhile, had their own set of concerns. These included persistently high mortgage rates, a sluggish housing market, the rising cost of living, and worries about job security particularly considering increasing AI-related disruption. However, consumers are experiencing a greater level of anxiety than business owners. Listen to this UPdate recent sentiment reports for business owners and consumers and our forecasts for the stock market in 2026.
On June 12–13 of last year, Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and senior commanders and scientists. Dozens of sites were neutralized, and several top Iranian military leaders were killed.
Despite the escalation, U.S. institutional investors showed little concern and continued deploying billions into equities, private equity, and venture capital. Markets responded positively, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reaching new all-time highs.
As a lifelong investor and portfolio manager for the past 28 years, I can confidently say the stock market has bipolar disorder. In reality, it is the large cast of participants that include media commentators, analysts, institutional investors, and everyday individuals who drive the market's unpredictable day-to-day movements. Read in this UPdate our analysis of the stock market, the impact of AI, and our views for the balance of this year.
Over the past three days, we've received reports on the state of consumer sentiment and small business confidence. The results show that both groups are slowly becoming more optimistic about the future, though improvement remains modest. Read in this UPdate, our review of several reports concerning consumer and small business sentiment and our views for the stock market.
Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor, and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year. These three barometers are monitoring the performance of the S&P 500 during specific days of the prior year December Christmas and the new year. These three periods make up what is known as the "Santa Claus Barometer". The specific days for this Santa Claus barometer are:
Ø Santa Claus Rally (SCR) – Prior Year December 26 to 31
Ø First Five Days of Current Year January (F5D)
Ø Current Year January Barometer (Jan)
Listen to this UPdate the final tally of these three periods and what it may predict for 2026. We also review the state of the US stock market and significant volatility that continued in 2026.
Last year, we began adding gold and silver mining companies Up Capital Model portfolios. Let me first give credit to client, Annie Alexander, who first introduced the idea of miner stocks early in 2025 as a developing favorable asset class. We ultimately decided to add gold and silver miners to Up Capital Model portfolios in the second quarter of 2025. Listen to this UPdate our analysis of the precious metals and miners and the potential for continued gains in 2026.
The year has now begun with a jolt of geopolitical disruption from Washington.
Over the weekend, following months of negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump authorized a dramatic 2:00 a.m. local-time operation by elite U.S. Delta Force units. The mission captured President Maduro and his wife and transported them to the United States, where they now await trial. Read in this UPdate our view of these recent events and the potential impact on the oil industry.
The predictability of investor behavior can feel almost tedious to anyone who closely follows market activity. Major U.S. indices are wrapping up a third consecutive calendar year of double-digit annual gains, with the S&P 500 up 76.52% and the NASDAQ soaring 119.4% since January 1, 2022. Hopefully, relentless negative messaging from the major media outlets did not keep you on the sidelines and prevent you from participating in these solid gains over the past three years. Listen to this UPdate our view of the AI boom, the recent market pause, and investor temperament.
As an investment advisor, I've had the privilege of working with clients across the full wealth spectrum from the ultra-affluent to those of more modest means. After more than 35 years in this profession, one truth has become unmistakably clear: wealth has its limits. In this UPdate, you'll read examples of clients who not only achieved financial success but also made intentional sacrifices to uphold personal standards they refused to compromise.
Last weekend, our friends and clients, Justin and Kelli Blackburn, invited us to attend the formal annual dinner benefiting St Jude Children's Research Hospital. Justin and Kelli are the founders of Trinity Constructors, a leading commercial construction company with offices in Texas, Tennessee, and Colorado. Listen to this UPdate our experience attending this dinner event and the impact this organization has had on Justin and Kelli.
Today marks the release of the 2nd Edition of Physicians' Guide to Wealth on Amazon. And despite its title, this book is not just for doctors. It's for anyone who wants to build wealth, understand financial markets, and achieve financial independence. In this UPdate, we outline key topics in this book that includes an overview of Anton's research on repeating and unbroken economic cycles of growth and contraction.
Engineers have a remarkable talent for inventing solutions to problems most people didn't even know existed. Consider the humble public restroom. For decades, we managed perfectly well with the trusty twisty-knob faucet—left for hot, right for cold. Simple. Functional. Civilized.
Now, in this UPdate, we take a look at businesses pouring millions—and in some cases, billions—into AI, often with no clear plan for how that investment will actually deliver returns.
If you missed the market rotation mid last year to gold and precious metal miners, you may be asking if it's too late to jump on? We started adding gold and silver miners in the first quarter of this year. Gold has become another key asset for our portfolios to diversify our very profitable positions in AI and technology. Listen to this UPdate our analysis of the AI boom and the precious metal rally that began in early 2024 with forecasts of how much longer these trends may continue.
Investors are enjoying a robust stock market rally with NASDAQ and possibly the S&P 500 completing three consecutive years of 20%+ annual gains. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a record-breaking cash reserve, reaching an all-time high of $347.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025. This represents more than a threefold increase in just three years, driven largely by aggressive stock sales and what their investment committee led by Warren Buffet perceives as a lack of attractive investment opportunities. Listen to this UPdate our analysis of multiple stock market warnings and our views of the stock for the balance of 2025 and into 2026.
Small business owners have endured a difficult four years. Before the global COVID-19 pandemic, many were benefiting from economic growth between 2017 and 2020. But when the pandemic struck, supply chains became strained and inflationary pressures intensified, even as consumer behavior shifted and work moved largely into people's homes. Consequently, the small business optimism index by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) plunged in early 2020 to its lowest reading in four decades.
In this UPdate, we analyze the latest NFIB optimism figures and explore what they might mean for investing in small- and mid-cap sectors going forward.
My selection of reports to write about is getting narrowed as multiple reporting US Federal agencies have stopped releasing economic data due to the Federal government shutdown. However, just before the government shutdown, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, (FHFA) released their housing price index for July based on home purchases with mortgages financed or bundled by federal housing agencies. Listen to 4this UPdate our analysis of the housing market and potential impact on the stock market.
Last week we reviewed the changes in prices from manufacturers and producers. Based on the reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual increase of the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined in August to 2.6% Year over Year (YoY) compared to July’s YoY annualized rate of 3.06%. Today, we will look further into the supply chain processes at cost changes of imports to our US producers. We will also look at export costs to our foreign partners as the changes will eventually impact US companies.
First, we will look at the import costs that will have a direct impact on the US inflation and consumer price index. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released this morning the US Import Price changes of their index. The index increased 0.3% to 141.4 points in August but the index is down from the start of the year at 141.8.
To determine the future costs of consumer goods one needs to monitor the costs to producers. If producer costs go up then it is only a matter of time until your costs increase at the retail level. Read in this UPdate our reporting on the changes of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) and what impact tariffs may be playing in future price increases.
Many of you read about the tragedy in the small town of Hunt in the Texas Hill Country. Torrential rain poured from July 4th to the 7th and then resumed again July 12 -13. The Guadalupe River that runs around the town quickly rose with water levels rising over 30’ in the town of Hunt. By the time water levels finally receded, 132 fatalities were confirmed including 27 children attending Camp Mystic, a girl’s camp, located along the Guadalupe River. Listen in this UPdate, Anton’s experience volunteering in Hunt this past weekend.
After the Federal Reserve raised their discount rate 500% in 2022 and 2023 taking mortgage rates up with them, housing activity has hit a brick wall. Since mid-2023, prospective home buyers have remained on the sidelines happy to remain with their current home or as renters. Listen in this UPdate our analysis of the housing market, its impact on the stock market, and our projections for the balance of this year.
There is a widening range of sentiments between individuals and business owners. The question is who is right and is perception reality? As we have mentioned in past Updates, consumers have only been this dire about the economy and their financial future in three other periods since 1978. Listen in this UPdate, our observations of the sentiment of these two sectors of the economy and the potential impact on the economy.
My grandson, Anton the 5th, and I flew our Piper Cherokee laterally across the country from southern Texas to the Annual AirVenture event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin earlier this month. Flying through the mid-west during the summer is always a challenge with pop-up thunderstorms, tornadoes, rain, and low cloud ceilings. The economy is starting to also show new signs of potential turbulence. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of the economy and stock market and how you might consider navigation through possible turbulent market conditions.
AI has exploded onto the scene led by supercomputing chips by Nvidia (NVDA). Initially, CEO’s and CTO’s (Chief Technology Officer) were evaluating the potential of this new highly advanced self-learning technology. When introduced, the application of AI was limited to basic business functionality primarily with phone systems. Read in this UPdate our review of how AI may be affecting you and where new investing opportunities may be developing.
Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of June had increased to 322.56 points or 0.3%. On an annual basis, the annual inflation rate has increased to 2.7% which is the highest annualized rate since February’s low reading of 2.4% annualized rate. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our analysis of this report and the status of the US economy and stock market.
The rapid rise of interest rates causes significant changes in lending activity and especially in the housing mortgage market. According to CNBC, the sale of previously owned homes in April declined 0.5% from March to an annualized rate of 4 million units. This is the slowest April pace since 2009. Read in this issue our view of the future of interest rates and inflation and the possible impact on the stock market.
In the complex and extensive ecosystem of the US economy, the fundamental core of its sustainability and continued growth all depends on the consumer. That’s you and me and how we spend and save our money. As investors we monitor consumer spending of both staples as the largest portion of household budgets and the more profitable discretionary spending such as vacations, hospitality, dining, jewelry, and luxury items. Discretionary budgets can fluctuate dramatically that are influenced by various factors that include changes in payroll, consumer sentiment, media, inflation, and politics. What is interesting is the widening spread of sentiment between business owners and consumers. In this Issue we discuss the wide gap of sentiment between business owners and consumers and what it means to you. Most importantly, how this disparity may influence the stock market and your investments.
For many of our retired clients, they had successful careers and are now enjoying their retirement years. Stock market volatility is difficult to navigate for investors and even more challenging for those already retired. The difference between those retired from their careers is the ability or time to make up account losses. It is more difficult to ride out stock market volatility without the confidence of additional income to make up the losses. In this UPdate, we discuss one key investment structure that can prevent you from panic selling during the worst of market conditions.
The first four months of 2024 have been a wild ride for Wall Street. Investors don’t respond well to change, and their typical response is to sell and ask questions later. In this issue we analyze the past two months market volatility and review what investors can learn about institutional investors in their response to potentially disruptive economic events.
This year investors have been challenged to navigate market volatility that so far has been based more on speculation than facts on the economy. Since President Trump’s inaugurated, he has rolled out more policies these past 113 days than any president I can remember. Listen in this UPdate the status of market conditions and how investors can benefit from studying President Trump’s previous term.
Since the inauguration of President Trump, investors have been very nervous about his administration’s aggressive policy changes and process. He and his administration seem to be keeping Wall Street and Main Street on a “need to know” basis that is hard for business owners to plan their future. How investors are responding to the uncertainty and the prospects for the US stock market.
Institutional investors have once again become headline driven. Institutional traders seem to base their daily trading strategy on Trump tweets panicking on this announcement or another. Most interesting is their little regard to actual economic data. They obviously haven’t learned much from President Trump’s first term and his modus operandi. Listen in this UPdate on assessment of the economy and our suggestions on navigating through this market volatility.
The stock market is currently selling off over concerns of pending tariffs, similar to the investor fears that led to the 2022 selloff. In 2022, investors sold stocks in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike campaign to combat soaring inflation. Despite corporate profits continuing to rise throughout 2022, stock prices declined until the market began a strong rally in early 2023. The current market correction in 2025 mirrors 2022, but key differences remain—mainly the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff policies. History shows markets typically rally once uncertainty clears. Listen in this UPdate as we compare today’s market selloff to 2022 and the potential opportunities that may follow.
George Foreman affectionately known as “Big George” died this week on March 21 at the young age of 76. He has many accolades to be remembered by that include his boxing career, business successes, father, minister, and philanthropic causes. After winning Gold at the 1968 Summer Olympics, he entered professional boxing and over the next 20 years he fought 76 professional fights that he ended 68 with a KO. The US is another rising star in its early years compared to countries around the world that are 1,000’s of years old. During this country’s short tenure it has endured wars, bad government policies, civil unrest, and many other challenges. Listen in this UPdate our comparison of the great George Foreman to the US economy and our projections this year for the stock market.
For the past week, major media outlets have opined on the stock market volatility speculating whether this is the beginning of a significant stock market selloff and if the US economy is entering a deep recession cycle like 2008 or 1929. However, the media is overstating the damage to investor accounts. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down -5.26% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the darling of the media because of the point fluctuation, is down YTD -2.61%. Listen in this UPdate our view of recent stock market volatility and strategies to navigate through this year.
Since December 6, 2024, the US stock market has been trading in a flat range up to February 19. However, the flat trading range weakened on January 27 when DeepSeek announced it had developed AI learning database using outdated Nvidia GPU for less than $6M. Investors panicked selling top AI company stocks with some share prices plummeting 15% - 20% that day. Even though the selloff was short lived, and nearly all the losses of that day were recovered within three weeks, investor confidence in the rally was shaken. Read in this UPdate, the events that followed DeepSeek’s announcement that has accelerated the selloff along with our analysis of the potential outcome of this correction.
The University of Michigan released on Friday their Surveys of Consumers reports. The February report indicated that consumers’ concerns are building after January’s index decline that has continued into February. From the February surveys, consumers cited mounting worry about rising inflation due to tariffs. The Consumer Confidence Index dropped 13.5% to 64.7 in February from December’s 74.0 index level. Listen in this UPdate our analysis of these reports and our stock market projections for 2025.
Investors entered 2025 with cautious optimism as stocks continued their strong rally, led by tech and AI. Despite a brief selloff in January, momentum remains positive, and new buying opportunities are emerging. Market corrections may be more volatile, but economic growth is broadening beyond tech. Stay informed on trends and opportunities in this week’s update.
The US economy continues to improve in many areas that would indicate continued positive momentum and continued growth. In this UPdate we will focus on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Turnover (JOLTS) report and Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing ISM Report on Business (ISM). Both reports provide insight on how employers are doing that will ultimately result in how the stock market performs in 2025. Listen in this UPdate our analysis and projections for 2025.
After two consecutive years of robust US stock market gains, investors are nervous about stock values and meeting high growth expectations, especially in the tech sector. For reference, the major indices’ two-year run has been tremendous with the S&P 500 gaining 53.19% and NASDAQ gaining a whopping 84.50%. Listen in this UPdate our view of yesterday's wild market swing and today’s rebound along with our forecast for 2025.
We have mentioned in past UPdates the importance of monitoring the financial and sentiment of US consumers. The primary reason is American spending represents a whopping 67.9% of America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) otherwise known as gross revenue from all transactions (illustrated below by JP Morgan). Imbedded in the matrix of consumer spending is the freedoms Americans have that has always been the foundation of the world dominate US economy. Read in this UPdate our analysis of core of the US economy, consumers’ impact, and our projections for 2025.
It may be just physiological, but I really enjoy January. Granted it’s just another 30-day period like any other month. But January is motivating to me because it’s the start of a new year to achieve new goals and experience new adventures. Read in this issue my personal hacks on how I venture into the new year with purpose and planning. More importantly, what you can learn from these hacks that may help you make 2025 your best year yet!
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) index has been well below its 50-year average of 98 as respondents report challenges with labor, costs, inflation, and government policies. The index has not been this low for as long as it has since the Great Recession. However, in November the index jumped 8 points to 101.7 as business owners responded with robust optimism regarding the new administration. Read in this UPdate our view of the sudden change in small business owners optimism, the future prospect of the stock market, and specifically the future of small cap index.
My daughter loves to shop. In fact, her two love languages are shopping and someone paying for it. Apparently at least the shopping part is also a lot of people’s love language. Adobe Analytics reported that between November 1 to 24 that US consumers spent a whopping $77.4 billion online, that is an increase of 9.6% over same time last year. In their report, Adobe Analytics reported that 21 of these 24 shopping days had over $3 billion in sales vs 16 days last year. Based on this early indication of sales Adobe Analytics is predicting an 8.4% increase year over year in this year’s holiday season. Read in this issue our complete report on holiday retail sales and their possible indication going into 2025.
Late Friday afternoon on November 29, 2024, Anton and 61 others traveled from San Antonio to Reynosa, Mexico to volunteer for Strategic Alliance to build three houses for three related families all living in small shacks. Read in this issue his experience with pictures of his trip and the houses they built.
The housing market is facing challenges with plummeting sales and high mortgage rates, but rising new home construction and potential rate declines in 2025 could improve affordability. Homeownership remains a powerful wealth-building tool, offering significantly higher net worth compared to renting. If you're considering entering the market or investing, now is the time to plan strategically—reach out to us for guidance.
Looking back at Trump’s first term offers insights into potential market impacts of his second. In 2016, markets rallied after his election, while 2024 has seen sustained growth and investor confidence regardless of the outcome. Key sectors—small caps, consumer discretionary, finance, and energy—are showing strong performance, with tech once again poised for growth.
I don’t know about you, but it seems costs for everything is getting crazy. My wife went to the grocery store and items that were $9 last week are $14 this week. You can’t tell me grocery store or supplier cost have jumped 56% in one week?!? Are prices really going up faster now than in the past? In this issue we analyze the changes in inflation and wages and compare the recent changes to historic averages.
September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased. The 0.4% is substantially higher than August’s 0.1% monthly increase. Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years. Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects for the future of the economy and stock market.
Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year. Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle’s impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport. It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-dollar warbird planes on display, three ship formation flight of North American T-6 Texans, and riveting stories about Tom’s experiences as a fighter pilot during Vietnan. Sign up for our next event on November 13 in San Jose.
Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle. This seems contradictory and begs the questions:
Ø Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country?
Ø Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment rate remains at lowest level since 1954?
Ø What is prompting investors to drive up the stock market to all-time highs?
Listen in this issue as we decipher several economic reports and answer these three key questions.
The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America.
After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week’s Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reached in July. The S&P Global PMI index declined in August and was the first month in 2024 with a reduction of production, sales, and demand. Read in this issue our review of these reports and our analysis of today’s stock market selloff.
As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were overpriced to their earnings, and weak housing market. In this Update we review reports released by the Federal Reserve Banks on businesses leader sentiment and their forecasts for the next six months. More importantly, read about our views of the stock market rebound and if it will continue to the end of the year.
Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.
The National Federation of Independent Businesses released today their Small Business Optimism report. In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI). Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, July’s index at 93.7 is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.0. Read in this issue our view of the Small Business Optimism report.
Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client’s portfolios as fast as they could. What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede. A jittery herd and then a sudden noise. Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legitimate or just nervous nellies.
A summer market correction is well under way after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market. Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced as three steps forward one step back. A consistent factor with investors and the stock market are the down cycles that are necessary to set up the next positive trend. Listen in this issue our analysis of the stock market and economy and predictions of when and how the stock market may resume its next up trend.
In today's market, interest rate trends, the recent S&P500 pullback, and presidential campaigns are key topics, influencing inflation, market volatility, and political dynamics
The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter are the changes in the company’s top line revenue (gross sales) and bottom line EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, amortization). The challenge for companies is increasing top revenue efficiently so their net income increases with rising sales. Read in this Update our analysis of a recent study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on productivity and possible implications as companies embrace new technology to grow their companies.
Since the stock market bottom on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly. During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by large cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%. The mid-cap S&P 400 index and small Cap S&P 600 trailed, rising 29.42% and 18.22% respectively. Is this a time to sell or buy more? Listen in this issue our analysis of identifying buying opportunities and when we believe it is time to sell.
We added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year. Since then, the stock price has soared. This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish forecasts the company’s chip and GPU (graphic processor units) will increase in demand. The stock is up 154.9% YTD through today. Listen in this Weekly Update our view on the future of NVDA and the AI industry.
The US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month. Consumers are changing their spending in what economists refer to as a “soft landing” from former periods of stronger retails sales. Quick reversals from strong retail sales to no sales blindsides investors that typically results in greater stock market volatility as investors knee jerk reaction is to SELL! In this Update, read about our observations of the IDEA report and forecasts for the economy.
In this podcast we identify that consumers are changing how they spend their money. It appears people are buying less fun stuff like vacations and home improvements and focusing more on boring stuff like food and clothes. Do consumers know something analysts don’t and are starting to adjust their budgets in preparation for a slowing economy? Listen in this Weekly Brief our observations of consumer spending and the changes we are making in our model portfolios.
The most recent economic tsunami was the 2020 pandemic that significantly disrupted all business and specifically manufacturing. Manufacturers were initially required to shut down operations and send their employees home. The obvious supply chain dysfunction that followed disrupted all businesses depending on manufactured products. Read in this Weekly Brief our observations of this week’s US and Global Manufacturing reports on production and output and the potential impact on businesses in 2024.
Last week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment. For the May report, the mid-month results indicate a preliminary consumer sentiment index of 67.4 that was revised up to 69.1 for the final May reading. May is below the April’s final reading of 77.2. Listen in this issue our analysis of this report and the potential insight to the future of the economy and stock market.
The Federal Reserve raised the discount interest rate 11 times since March 2022. The last rate increase was in July 2023 as the CPI trended down from its peak and currently the CPI annualized rate for April was reported last week at 3.4% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. How will investors respond with their investment activity as we approach this year’s controversial Presidential election? Listen in this Weekly Brief our views on the interest rate market, the election, and the potential for the stock market.
Today the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index. The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus.
Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index. The optimism index has been below the 50-year average of 98 for the past 28 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and investment opportunities in the future.
Why do some investors build wealth consistently over time while many have little to show in growth after years of investing? In this Weekly Brief, we dive into the various practices and policies of investment advisors and why the guidance of some will result in years of underperformance of their client accounts.
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on consumer income and spending. The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy. In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors.
The US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million. This reverses February MoM gain with March’s new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020. What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market. Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on the US economy.
Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers. To simplify the US economic equation is simply:
People working = people spending = economic activity
In this issue we review today’s Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansion of the US economy.
The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine. Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines. Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.
One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI). This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy. This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Historically, when the PMI index is above 50 it represents a growing manufacturing industry and below 50 indicates contraction. Listen to this Weekly Brief the results of the recently released PMI report and our analysis of this report.
The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January. The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday’s survey of forecasters. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the stock market.
Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs, the small business sector seems to be missing the party all together. For several years we have been writing about the lagging S&P 600 Small Cap Index to its peers of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and S&P 400 Mid Cap Indices. Today we review the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) release yesterday that indicated the 26th consecutive month the small business optimism index is below its 50-year average. Listen in this issue why small business owners have not been this pessimistic since 2013 and the outlook for the S&P 600 Small Cap index.
A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019. In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to “Economy in General” and “High Cost of Living/Inflation”. In this Weekly Brief we review events of the 1960’s that led to historic hyperinflation of the 1970’s and what we can learn from this era. Most importantly, what were the risks and opportunities during the wild rides of these decades.
Today the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February 2024. We need to monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us potential insight to the future of consumer spending which represents 66% of the nation’s financial activity as referenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means and our view of the stock market.
This week's podcast dives into the disconnect between media-driven recession fears and the actual economic growth seen despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Contrary to dire predictions, the economy expanded, with significant stock market rallies and low unemployment rates defying expectations. We'll discuss the repercussions of basing investment strategies on speculative media narratives and highlight the stability and growth in consumer-focused economic indicators. The episode concludes with our optimistic outlook for 2024, adjusting investment strategies while reflecting on the past year's successes and challenges. Join us as we explore these dynamics and set the stage for informed financial decision-making.
This year there are more people turning 65-year-old in America than in any other time in history. Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78 and they are turning the age of 65 at a rate of 11,300 per day. Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means for the American society and economy?
In last week's episode, we dove deep into the seismic news that shook Wall Street to its core – the latest January US Bureau of Labor Statistics job report. With analysts initially predicting a modest increase of 180,000 new jobs, the actual figures left us astounded as the economy surged with an additional 353,000 positions. This significant uptick isn't just a number; it's a beacon of bustling activity, signaling more paychecks, bolstered households, and invigorated consumer spending. Join us on "Wall Street Wake-Up" as we dissect the labor market's latest trends, providing you with insightful analysis on what this unexpected growth means for your investments and financial landscape. Tune in to ensure you're well-equipped to navigate the twists and turns of the market with confidence.
Explore the 'Santa Claus Predictor' in our latest podcast episode. Learn how the S&P 500's performance during key December and January dates can signal its yearly direction. With mixed signals for 2024, we also delve into the robust end-of-year market rally in 2023 and discuss the promising economic outlook for the year ahead. Tune in for a concise and insightful analysis of market trends and predictions!
The American consumer sentiment, heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, has been recovering since hitting a low in July 2022, reaching a two-year high in January. Despite ongoing concerns like international conflicts and inflation, household financial conditions are strong, with low unemployment and favorable mortgage rates. This improvement in sentiment is critical as consumer spending drives 66% of the US GDP, and while holiday sales were robust, economic conditions remain dynamic and require continuous monitoring to anticipate future trends in the economy and stock market.
In 2023, the stock market, led by major tech companies, saw significant gains with the S&P 500 up by 26%, while the fixed income market experienced unexpected fluctuations in interest rates. Looking ahead to 2024, the stock market is considered more expensive, with expectations of continued growth and margin expansion, especially in tech sectors influenced by AI, while the fixed income market faces challenges with debt rollovers and potential for strong yields in high-rated areas. The U.S. economy remains resilient with steady growth and moderating inflation.
Our expectations of a stock market yearend rally were modest due to waning retail sales and consumer confidence reported in October. As it turned out, the yearend rally exceeded our and most expectations as institutional investors added stocks to their portfolios that rallied the S&P 500 by 17% and NASDAQ by 23% since the October 27 bottom. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the year and potential new buying opportunities in 2024.
Yesterday was Christmas and already it seems like it was yesterday. We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us. As a result, we had a full house with all day activities with kids and adults that concluded with an amazing Christmas dinner with my wife as head chef. Read more about our day in this Weekly Brief. We are hopeful that you had a wonderful Christmas day with friends and family. At Up Capital Management are thankful for the opportunity to serve you with this Weekly Brief and as clients of our financial planning and wealth management services.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the slow continual decline in job openings that remains at historic high levels. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at multi-decade low levels. How can businesses have record job openings while those collecting unemployment are at record low levels? Where are the workers and how are they paying their bills? Finally, what does this mean for the US economy and stock markets? In this Weekly Brief we unpack these reports and explain where people are working and why household finances are better than they have been in decades.
With Thanksgiving quickly approaching (along with friends and families), we take a look at how inflation is impacting the country and especially the cost of Thanksgiving dinner. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of several economic indicators to determine if the economy is slowing or growing as we enter the last four weeks of the year. Let us know how we can assist you with your financial planning and investing goals.
Explore the market's triumphant week with our latest financial briefing. Discover how small and mid-cap indices like the SP600 and SP400 outshone their larger counterparts, signaling a strategic shift as investors hunt for value in underperformers. Unpack the surprising three-year lag of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and its historical cycle of dominance and downturns. Dive into the charts illustrating NASDAQ's impressive rallies over the past five and ten years. We dissect what this rotation in market leadership means for your investments and why, despite past tech sector volatility, a future of growth beckons. Tune in to align with the market's upward momentum as we analyze why history's lessons are shaping today's investment strategies.
The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings. The result is the actual value of stocks are rarely held as prices fluctuate above and below the actual value. The key to building wealth is achieving sustainable and consistent yearly gains of your accounts. In this Weekly Brief, we review the wild ride of the past couple years, what we can learn from it, and most importantly, what longer trend has been in place.
Is good news really bad news for investors? The media would like you to think so. Today, the US Census Bureau released their report indicating that consumer spending increased month over month higher than projected. The media interprets this as bad news as it raises the risk the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates. Read in this Weekly Brief how we interpret this data and whether good news is really bad news.
The small and mid-cap indices continue to trail their large cap and NASDAQ peers. Is it time to consider investing in these trailing sectors or wait for more confirmation of a positive trend? Speaking of positive trend, the SP 500 has bounced off of a low on October 2 and has rallied above its 20, 50, and 200 Day Moving Averages. Is this the uptrend we have been waiting for? Read in this Weekly Brief our views of the current market and this recent reversal.
In this Weekly Brief we review many of the scams our clients have experienced in hopes of preventing you from getting scammed. Scammers are getting extremely sophisticated as they can duplicate major banking emails and even show up on your caller ID when they call. AI is introducing all new ways to duplicate voices and write emails. Be aware anytime you get a call from a financial institution and especially if they want you to make changes or transfer funds from your account.
The S&P 500 has declined 8% since it peaked on July 31 the year high and now at its 200 Day Moving Average. Is this a time to sell or buy and what will the institutional investors that represent the majority of stock market trading, be doing? Read in this Weekly Brief our views and what strategies one must consider to consistently build wealth.
Consumer sentiment has declined for the third consecutive month. Is this a precursor to another mild holiday season? In this Weekly Brief we review the recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report along with other reports to determine the trend of the economy and stock market.
Anton shares in this Weekly Brief his experience of a near death plane crash one year ago and the emotional recovery process since the crash. Not everyone will be involved in a near death accident, but recovering from personal challenges are similar with perseverance to work through the situation and emotions that come with the experience.
Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%. Consumer spending represents 66% of the US GDP and the future of the economy is dependent on consumers continuing to spend even with higher interest rates. Listen in this Weekly Brief our full analysis of consumer spending and other economic indicators.
Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver’s seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market? Call us if you are not as we welcome the opportunity to assist you and your family.
Institutional investors’ biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign. Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed’s will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up. Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will be encouraged by reports that employers are slowing their hiring and wage increases. Listen in this Brief our analysis of the labor market and what it may mean to investors going into the fourth quarter.
The stock market has taken a pause since peaking its year high on July 31. Is this the beginning of a more protracted correction or a new buying opportunity? In this Brief we unpack what’s we believe investors are doing and a strategy for your portfolio.
Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) release their report on the sentiment of small business owners. Although the index is still well below prior year highs, the trend has been positive for the last several months and recovering from lows reached earlier this year. Read in this issue our observation of this report and what it may indicate for the stock market.
Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers. Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season. These executives are evaluating the prospects of consumer spending based on their financial assessment of households. Financially stable consumers spend more and especially when consumers feel “wealthy” based on their view of the economy, equity in their home, and investment account values. We can learn a lot about the prospects of the stock market based on retailers’ assessments for the holidays because favorable results for both investors and retailers are dependent on consumer spending. In this Weekly Brief we do a deep dive into what data executives are looking at to potentially derive our own conclusions for the stock market. The hope for all is a Christmas rally due to continued economic grow and everyone enjoying a great holiday season. Merry Christmas!
President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 on December 29, 2022 that has improved in many ways the ability to save for retirement. However, it is important to monitor tax laws as it concerns your retirement account. The 401(k) retirement plan is not disappearing yet, but the potential of double taxation or worse on retirement distributions can impact your overall returns. Read in this Weekly Brief as we unpack the new laws as it concerns 401(k) and possible changes to your retirement contributions beginning 2024.
The Federal Reserve has recently announced its 10th rate hike in an effort to curb inflation, leading analysts to predict a potential recession in 2023. It's important to remember that recessions are a normal part of economic fluctuations, with the US having experienced 13 since World War II. Attempting to time recessions or markets is impossible, and making significant portfolio moves can be challenging even for professional investors. Jerome Powell's recent comments may suggest a pause in future rate hikes, and overall, we maintain a positive outlook for the US economy and stock market.
In 2014 my wife gave me a gift certificate for an introductory flight. That 45-minute flight sparked a lifelong interest in flying that resulted in obtaining my pilot’s license and aviation experiences I had never thought possible. In this personal reflection on pursuing my aviation goals, are many life lessons that will hopefully encourage you to take the first steps in pursuit of your lifelong big audacious goals.
Are the fears and worries in 2022 of a recession in 2023 coming to fruition? In this Weekly Brief we review the challenges the Federal Reserve faced in 2020 and 2021 and why they needed to raise rates as rapidly as possible in 2022. The concern among many analysts and commentators were the rate increases would stifle economic growth and spiral the economy into a recession. Read in this Week our observations of recent economic reports that don’t seem to be indication such dire outcomes.
Yesterday’s National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey on small businesses indicated many key aspects about the health of small businesses. As expected, hiring qualified employees and supply chain disruptions are still a factor for businesses. However, there are several positive indicators about small businesses that represent 99.9% of all businesses in America and have created 66% of all new jobs since 1996. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the report and what it may mean for the stock market.
Recent economic reports on labor and manufacturing are indicating a slowing but growing economy. In this Weekly Brief we review several reports that together paint a picture of a soft landing of a sustainable and growing economy albeit at a slower pace. The scenario that Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, had hoped would be the case vs the doom and gloom crash landing many analysts predicted last year.
Inventories are dropping for manufacturing and trade companies while rising for retail businesses. A mixed bag of information that may indicate that businesses are still growing while consumers are pinching pockets on their spending. Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of these reports and the status of the US stock market.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March dropped, and it's expected to decline further. The Great Recession affected both homeowners and the US financial industry, leading to a decline in consumer sentiment. However, consumer sentiment doesn't always impact spending, and consumers continued to spend despite the decline in sentiment. Tracking consumer sentiment doesn't always provide insight into future consumer spending and the economy. More applicable data is to track how much money consumers have and how much they spend. Despite economic and health challenges, consumers had money to spend in 2020 and 2021 due to trillions in stimulus dollars and wage increases. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a household income increase of 3.2% in Q4 2022.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank may not be a systemic issue prevalent in the banking sector. However, there are challenges in the credit and lending industry due to the rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 and into 2023. Read in this article an in-depth analysis of the missteps of Silicon Valley Bank that lead to its ultimate demise and what we can learn from this situation.
Yesterday’s Factory Orders indicated that consumer spending remains in positive up trend and a good start of the year. The US economy remains in a positive trend and more favorable in contrast to Germany’s Factory Report also released yesterday.
The doomsayers predicting a recession in late 2022 or in 2023 so far are thankfully incorrect. The US GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with positive overall gain. Read in this Weekly Brief more evidence we referenced why recession fears may have been overstated and what we see as a likely forecast for 2023.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their monthly housing sales report this morning. The bad news is the report indicated a 12th consecutive monthly decline in home sales with the good news the decline may be slowing. In fact, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying that he forecast the potential bottoming of home sales with the potential to see increase activity going into the spring.
Analysts have been forecasting a hard landing for the economy in 2023 due to many concerns that include the aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. As it turned out, the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the economy has proven to be more accurate than analyst’s projections. In this Brief we review the possibilities of either a soft landing or no landing at all.
Spring and summer always follow winter. No matter how cold or deep the snow, spring is only a few months away. If history is a guide to the future of the US economy, this period of world pandemic, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation, and war, will also fade away and lead into the next US bull market and economic growth trend. Read in this Weekly Brief or listen to our podcast as we review key similar challenging times in US history and how the economy not only survived but thrived in subsequent years.
The advantage of being at the bottom of market cycles is the potential for significant gains during the recovery can be terrific. In this issue we outline several stocks bouncing back big time – 30% to 40% - so far this year. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend or a “dead cat bounce” when stocks experience a short term rally only to reverse to new lows?
The Federal Reserve started a rate hike policy on March 17, 2022, that continued throughout the year, targeting to lower inflation based on several indicators. Investors are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a recession. Retail sales have declined in the past two months, which suggests that the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP will be lower than previously thought, with personal consumption expenditures less supportive of growth. Additionally, the housing market has seen a decline in prices and transactions, which typically represents the largest expenditure of consumer spending, and the relevance of this is that it may impact the US economy, stock market, and corporate profits.
Another year over and a new year starting. If there is any time to get ahead of your schedule and plan and take proactive steps towards your goals, it is now. In this Brief, we discuss some real-life lessons learned on the SEC Football field that turned the tables on Alabama’s Nick Saban.
With a new year is new hope for an improving stock market. In this Weekly Brief we review many of the anomalies that impacted almost all sectors of the economy that created unusual price swings. Most investors forget that the pandemic and subsequent government restrictions on society occurred during a strong economy that appears to still be in tack three years later. Most certainly, the US economy is recovering faster than most other countries. We look at how prices fluctuated during 2020 and 2021 that set up a needed correction that may provide insight to how markets may recover in 2023.
DFTF or “Don’t Fight the Feds” has been the theme for investors this year. The steady decline of the stock market has been matched by the aggressive rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve. However, investors are slowly renewing their hope that on December 14 Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, will give the message investors have been waiting all year for. In this Weekly Brief we decipher the impact the Federal Reserve is having on the stock market and more importantly what other factors are in place to ignite the next market rally once the Federal Reserve begins to slow their rate hike policy.
Mixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992. However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers. A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders. No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising interest rates and prices and implementing precautions should the US economy slow faster than projected. All this to say, is the most anticipated recession forecasted for 2023 indicates a low bar of expectations for next year that may result in pleasant surprises should conditions not be as dire as analysts’ project.
In this week's episode, Anton shares some stories in his recent months and reasons he is thankful - also, why you might be too!
Over the past 30 years of managing investor portfolios, the theater of financial markets has produced some of the most interesting and sometimes comical characters of Wall Street. Most importantly is how we can learn from them and identify who we should listen to for advice and those simply to watch and listen. In this Weekly Brief, we feature the fun of this theater from the opening act early each morning and the willing participants of Wall Streeters, all of us investors. Its great entertainment this financial theater and for many a terrific way to grow your investment account.
The US continues to improve in nearly every industry sector and none better than the record 23 consecutive monthly gain in factory and manufacturing production. The Federal Reserve is causing a re-balance of economy with many long term benefits to investors. Listen in this Weekly Brief our positive analysis and forecast of the stock market and economy.
The next 60 days represent the “holiday season” and for us some of the most memorable times of the year. Listen in this Brief the joys of this time of the year and what you can look forward to.
Life is like one long hike. Planning, preparation, and proper supplies will assure a successful hike as it will also in life. Listen to this issue, our experiences hiking in Maui, and the life lessons we learned along the way.
The holiday season is near and in this Weekly Brief we review projections for holiday sales this season. The stock market has started the fourth quarter with a bang and we discuss what will be needed to continue this rally.
History has many experiences of the Dow Jones Industrial Average selling off and entering new bear markets (down > 20%). However, the Dow Jones has always recovered from a selloff and in many situations rallied to new highs within 24 months. In 2020, the Dow Jones plummeted 37% in 40 days but was back to its previous high by November 13 or in 275 days. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of past stock market corrections and subsequent rallies that demonstrate the resilience of the US economy and stock market.
Is the housing market on track for another bust of declining home prices and high vacancies? Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of this week’s National Association of Housing Builders and our view of the future of the residential housing market.
This week I attended the Advisor Circle Future Proof conference in Huntington Beach, CA. In this Brief I review comments from key speakers on the economy and stock market. Hint, they are not panicking.
The saying is the stock market rises like a staircase and drops like an elevator. Listen in this Weekly Brief why we remain optimistic and propose patience over panic as your investment strategy.
Jerome Powell gave his speech last week and Wall Street is having a fit. Federal Reserve is not giving them what they want! Can the Federal Reserve successfully tame the inflation challenges of the future of our economy? Listen in this Brief our view of Jerome Powell’s speech and most importantly his missed insights that evidence points to their policy is working.
Is housing about to experience another crash like 2008? Listen in this Brief our analysis of last week’s existing and new housing sales reports and projections for the residential market.
The stock market is in recovery, but the bond market is not. Why are stocks going up and bonds declining in value? Listen in this Weekly Brief as we unpack this divergence and reveal the long term risk with bonds.
There are more jobs available in the US than in recent history. Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over 528,000 new jobs were filled the previous year month and nearly 100% higher than expectations. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and the prospects for the stock market and holiday sales in the second half of this year.
More bad economic news is music to the ears of the Federal Reserve. Listen in this Weekly Brief why this is good news not only for the Federal Reserve but investors as well.
Again the market proves that it looks to where the economy is going and not where its been. Last month there was record setting bad economic data while the SP500 had its best month of the year. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this separation and what it might mean for your investments.
When is bad news good? (e.g. your distant uncle died and you have an inheritance) The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index dropped in July to the lowest level since 2020. Listen in this Brief our analysis of this report and why it is good news for investors going into 2023.
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it’s Consumer Price Index report that at high level appears to be on a torrid rise not seen since November 1981. But is there more to this report and is it possible a few bad apples have outsized influence on the index? Listen in this Brief as we break down this report and determine if there is a silver lining to be discovered
Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it’s Consumer Price Index report that at high level appears to be on a torrid rise not seen since November 1981. But is there more to this report and is it possible a few bad apples have outsized influence on the index? Listen in this Brief as we break down this report and determine if there is a silver lining to be discovered
Now that fixed mortgage rates have ballooned 100% these past several months will housing continue to boom or bust? More importantly, what will be the impact on the future of the stock market? Listen in this Weekly Brief our analyst of housing and stock market as the Federal Reserve battles rising inflation.
Giant slayer Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, is battling the giant of hyperinflation. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of his battle strategy and our score card of his success against rising prices and the future of the stock market.
Consumer sentiment drops to the lowest level in recorded history since the 1940’s. How bad is our economy and why are people so depressed? Listen in this Brief comparisons to previous times when consumers almost felt this bad and how the stock market performed shortly after consumer sentiment reached these lows.
Is the US in approaching a recession, already in a recession, or nearly completing a recession? Listen in this Brief the true definition of a recession and historically how the stock market performs before, during, and after recessions.
Can investor herd mentality predict stock market bottoms and tops? Listen in this report one indicator that has consistently preceded the next stock market rally.
Making lemonade from lemons can be achieved even during stock market corrections. How? Tax loss harvesting that you can apply against capital gains in the future. Learn how to do this in this Brief with pro-active strategy to reduce the pain of this market correction.
The stock market reached new lows for the year along with consumer sentiment dropping to 59.1 and a level not seen in eleven years. However, every time consumer sentiment dropped below a reading of 60 since 1978 it was the precursor to improving consumer sentiment and economy. Not missing a beat, Mr Buffet is reported to be investing billions these past couple months into the stock market. Listen in this Brief our view on these and other circumstances and how you should be preparing for the next uptrend.
Tomorrow the media will be blasting news of the biggest decline in US employee productivity since 1947! Yes, this is a large decline but the American worker still produces at near-record levels since the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking this indicator. Listen to this Brief our view on the labor market and more important the potential future trend of the stock market.
Google “Recession Risk for 2022” and you have 128,000,000 articles to read. But how can we determine the true status of the US economy? Look no further than the financial health of people and businesses. Listen to this about our review of many recently released key government agency reports on consumers and businesses and what the evidence points to on the status of the US stock market and economy.
The past two years has caused wide variances of economic growth among counties and between states in the US. Read in this Brief where the biggest changes are occurring and what it means to you as an investor.
Your feelings can mislead you into poor investment decisions that may result in sub-par returns. In this Brief, the data from the US Bureau of Census and compare that to how your feel about this economy. Chances are the two are on opposite ends of the emotional scale.
The major indices appear to be continuing a positive trend that began March 14. In this Brief a deeper dive into this analysis and the evidence this may be the beginning of the next rally.
Listen in to Anton talk to you about the weird interest rate fluctuations that have been happening, and what this means to you & the future of our economy!
The Producers Price Index indicated what most Americans already know, prices are going up and faster then most would like. Gas prices have spiked but that is probably a short-term result of supply disruptions. More importantly, read in this Brief, how institutional managers are positioning their portfolios and what can we learn about their trading activities so far this year.
The stock market continues to fluctuate as investors worry about Ukraine, inflation, rising costs, and a myriad of other issues. In this Brief, we look back to history that provides insight on a winning investment strategy and more importantly not miss another buying opportunity.
In this Brief we unpack the recent Consumer Spending and Gross Domestic Product reports and what we can learn from them and more importantly what it may mean this year for the stock market and your accounts.
The media is reporting inflation growth not seen since the 1980’s. Is this the beginning of years of hyper-inflation or is there more to the story? Listen to the true details behind monitoring the rise of prices and what to really watch to determine the future of inflation.
The US continues to recover from the 2020 pandemic and companies are resuming their productivity. How is productivity defined and why is it important for our investments? Read in this Brief about the trend of US business productivity and how do we compare to the rest of the world.
Understand the media and you will have great insight on interpreting investor behavior. In this Brief, we evaluate recent articles, the possible 2022 media storyline, and potential future for the stock market.