Fully Invested with Nick Hengl: Recent Episodes
Nick Hengl
Join Financial Advisor, Nick Hengl, on his weekly musings related to personal finance. Questions or topic requests? Email Nick at nhengl@hfgtrust.com. Nick Hengl is a Financial Advisor with HFG Advisors, an HFG Trust Company. For more information, please visit our website: https://primewealth.com/ DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor. The views of the author are expressed as of the indicated date of publication and such views are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, the thoughts and expressions of this podcast make no representation of HFG Advisors, Inc. or HFG Trust, LLC. Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you. Clients of HFG Advisors may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
NOTE: This episode was recorded on Thursday, November 10, and erroneously refers to a Federal Reserve announcement; I was actually referring to the CPI release (i.e. inflation) for October which beat expectation!
One theory claims that the stock market is perfectly efficient—meaning that all knowable information is rapidly factored into stocks’ prices. However, most investors who have watched the market for more than a couple days might be skeptical of this supposed efficiency. Today’s episode discusses some of the reasons why we see inefficiencies and difficult-to-explain market volatility in the shorter term.
Let's face it—these economic times are bleak. But sky-high inflation and turbulent markets don't necessarily mean you have to hide in your shell! Sometimes bad economic times present opportunities for our financial future. Today we will discuss a few of those opportunities.
Sources
Surveys of Consumers
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
Consumer sentiment: A contrarian indicator
https://www.plantemoran.com/explore-our-thinking/insight/2022/08/consumer-sentiment-a-contrarian-indicator
I bondshttps://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/
In his most recent Viewpoints newsletter, Jeremy Grantham claims we are "Entering the Superbubble's Final Act" – a superbubble that he believes will pop in "epic" fashion. Is he right? Should investors be taking action? Or is the "permabull" approach—as Mr. Grantham calls it – a more appropriate strategy for the average investor?
Sources
GMO Viewpoints: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/entering-the-superbubbles-final-act/
Bloomberg Interview 2021: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-22/bubble-expert-jeremy-grantham-addresses-epic-equities-euphoria
Business Insider 2020: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-real-mccoy-investor-jeremy-grantham-2020-6-1029320808
Wall Street Journal 2017: https://www.wsj.com/articles/investor-known-for-calling-market-bubbles-largely-sat-this-rally-out-1483876837
Business Insider 2015: https://www.businessinsider.com/gmos-grantham-forecasts-fed-fueled-asset-bubble-2015-4
Business Insider (late) 2014:
Today, I talk about some unique considerations for the Millennial generation—with the aim of providing valuable information for all generations!
Sources
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charting-the-growing-generational-wealth-gap/
https://www.magnifymoney.com/news/net-worth-of-millennials/
Buying v. Renting a Home
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/083115/renting-vs-owning-home-pros-and-cons.asp
https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/rent-vs-buy-calculator
Why are Millennials Lagging?https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/07/11/style/economic-anxiety-millennials.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-highest-earning-generation-less-wealthy-boomers-2021-9
Connect with me at: nhengl@hfgtrust.com
This week I interview David Miller with Northwestern Mutual. He helps us understand what life insurance is and why many people should have it. Although it’s not always the most exciting feature of a financial plan, it’s often one of the most important.
Contact David Miller: https://www.northwesternmutual.com/financial/advisor/david-x-miller/
More information on Life Insurance ratings: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insurance-company-credit-rating.asp
Connect with me at: nhengl@hfgtrust.com
After a hiatus, the podcast is back. Join financial advisor, Nick Hengl, as he provides a brief overview of the state of markets and the economy. If you have questions or requests for future episodes, please email Nick at nhengl@hfgtrust.com.
As referenced in the episode, here is a link to the FAO Food Price Index: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
This week I talk about the Monte Carlo analysis and its important role in planning.
Citations and Links
Portfolio Visualizer: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation#analysisResults
To run the analysis I discuss in the episode, you will just need to enter the asset allocation, it defaults to a $1,000,000 starting balance with $45,000 withdrawals over a 30-year period. The asset allocation I ran:
Asset 1 - "US Stock Market" 70%; Asset 2 - "Total US Bond Market" 30%. Once entered, hit "Run Simulation".
Monte Carlo fat-tail analysis: https://www.kitces.com/blog/monte-carlo-analysis-risk-fat-tails-vs-safe-withdrawal-rates-rolling-historical-returns/
Monte Carlo Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
This week we will talk about the temptation to skip out on investments in favor of cash.
In this episode, a few thoughts on the invasion of Ukraine, and Part 2 of how to keep the internet from ruining your financial life.
Resources for online security:
Google Tips: https://safety.google/security/security-tips/
Federal Trade Commission Tips: https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/articles/how-avoid-scam
Ad Fontes Media Bias Chart: https://adfontesmedia.com/static-mbc/?utm_source=HomePage_StaticMBC_Image&utm_medium=OnWebSite_Link
Lengthy list of heuristics and cognitive biases we're susceptible to: https://thedecisionlab.com/biases
"Scammer Payback" YouTube channel (For your amusement only. Please never try to replicate what he does. Mild language warning): https://www.youtube.com/c/ScammerPayback
Sources:
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/gdp
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/qgdpstate0621.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/02/business/oil-prices-opec.html
Join me as I discuss six digital pitfalls we face in our journey to financial well-being. This episode covers the first three: (1) Beware the Algorithmic Mirror, (2) Clicks get Money, and (3) Easy on the Cryptos!
What IS a Roth IRA conversion? Who should consider converting their Roth? Is it the same thing as the “Mega Backdoor Roth Conversion”? This week I interview my colleague, Tom Rasmussen, CFP®, who helps me answer these questions and more!
More information about Tom: https://cfbhfg.com/team-member/tom-rasmussen-cfp/
This episode will address the correction and market volatility we're currently seeing.
Resources:
- Sequence of Returns Risk/Sequence Risk - (click here)
- S&P 500 Averages - (click here)
- SPY Data including Standard Deviation - (click here)
- Calculating Standard Deviation - (click here)
- Sector Overlay Char 2020 - (click here)
The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor. Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you. Clients of Prime Wealth Management, an HFG Trust Company, may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
In this episode I cover an important but straight forward topic of... retirement (or as I like to call it, "The Switch"). Going from living off a paycheck from your employer to living off a paycheck from your investments and social security is, procedurally, a pretty straight forward change. But when you’ve spent 30 to 40 years pumping hard-earned money into that investment account, it shouldn’t be any surprise some people have difficulty rewiring their brain to accept this reversal of money movement—a.k.a. flipping that switch to retirement mode.
The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor. Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you. Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
This episode addresses the increasingly relevant question of whether or not Financial Advisors are even necessary these days? The second half of the episode then dives into the different types of professionals who may carry the Financial Advisor title.
I use the terms "Financial Advisor" and "Financial Planner" somewhat interchangeably for the purposes of this episode, but there can most certainly be differences. My colleague, Investopedia, can explain further: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/040215/financial-advisor-vs-financial-planner.asp
The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor. Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you. Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
Welcome to my inaugural episode! Today I'll be discussing three general categories (and sub-categories) of retirement investors and some of the pitfalls they may experience. This is my first go at it, so please provide feedback if you're so inclined! I can be reached at nhengl@hfgtrust.com
I reference a few studies on behavioral investing which can be found below:
DALBAR Study: https://www.dalbar.com/ProductsAndServices/QAIB
M. Roszkowski, G. Davey. (2010). "Risk Perception and Risk Tolerance Changes Attributable to the 2008 Economic Crisis: A Subtle but Critical Difference". Journal of Financial Service Professionals.
R. Yao, S.D. Hanna, S. Lindamood. (2016). "Changes in Financial Risk Tolerance, 1983-2001." Financial Services Review.
The opinions expressed are for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice; listening to this podcast should not be considered an engagement with the investment advisor. Consult with an investment professional to determine which investments and financial planning strategies are right for you. Clients of Prime Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.