USIP Podcasts: Recent Episodes
United States Institute of Peace
While the “very volatile situation” in Mozambique is nominally in response to October’s presidential election, “it’s been several years in the making,” says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy, adding “what we’re seeing [there] is what we’re seeing elsewhere in Africa … a dissatisfaction with the ruling party.”
As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng.
Amid the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is “a region that really is on fire,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. “There are no guardrails anymore … all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that’s where the danger lies.”
More than 100,000 Colombians have been forcibly disappeared over the last six decades. Finding their remains is “tremendously healing” and can “repair the social fabric” by giving closure to the victims’ loved ones and allowing former armed actors “to regain their own dignity” by contributing to the process, says USIP’s Steve Hege.
The legacies of the Vietnam War were once an obstacle to U.S.-Vietnam relations. But today, addressing those legacies has become “key foundation” for bilateral cooperation, says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang. And as ties continue to grow, youth from both countries “have a new vision for how our countries can work together.”
The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS recently recommitted itself to fighting the remnants of the Islamic State “not just as a group and an entity,” says USIP’s Osama Gharizi, “but also dealing with the factors that gave rise [to it]” and the legacies it left behind — like the process of repatriating those who lived under its rule.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly made clear that Ukraine will not give up claims to territory. “Even if they don’t get [the land] all back right away, they will eventually get it back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor, which will leave Putin with “no choice but to look for a way out.”
After dealing with “growing cynicism and lack of participation” in recent years, the U.N. General Assembly opened this week by adopting the Pact for the Future, which represents commitments from 193 countries to “really reform global governance as we know it,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.
During his 10-day trip to the region, the pope used “straight, plain-spoken language” while discussing pressing issues — such as climate change in Indonesia and violence against women in Papua New Guinea — in the hopes of spurring change, said USIP’s Gordon Peake: “No pun intended, he has a bit of a bully pulpit in these matters.”
With a Kenyan-led security mission and a new interim government in place in Haiti, Secretary Blinken’s visit to the country shows that “the United States has been trying hard … to take advantage of the momentum,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding that while there’s a long way to go, “for now, there’s something to build on.”
Details from U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent meetings in Beijing with senior Chinese officials have been scarce. But amid simmering tensions, the fact the meeting occurred at all is notable, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “The point here, I suspect, is simply to have communications.”
After protests forced long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign earlier this month, Bangladesh’s new interim government is “seeking, at this moment, to grasp that democratic spark” and “set forward the reforms that are going lead to a new political culture” in the country, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.
The Ukrainian military seized a chunk of territory in the Kursk region of Russia as part of a surprise incursion that has left the Russian military in “a panic,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding that Putin’s strategy until now did not “take into account that Ukraine could strike back, and they certainly have.”
The recent exchange of prisoners between Russia and Western countries was historic on multiple fronts. But the “coherence and solidarity” displayed by U.S. allies was what made the deal possible, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The conversations among allies were as important as the conversation with the Russians.”
Last week’s election in Venezuela has created a political firestorm as disputed returns have led to demonstrations and street violence. “The international community, and especially the U.S., will need to stay focused in their support for democratic change in Venezuela” over the long term, says USIP’s Keith Mines.
China and the Philippines recently struck a secretive deal to deescalate confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal, “one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell. “Nobody wants to see it escalate to war,” but the “the ambiguity [of the deal] … allows both sides to claim victory.”
More than a year into Sudan’s civil war, the country is facing the “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” as international aid struggles to find its way to those in need, says USIP’s Susan Stigant: “At this point, unfortunately, all of the efforts collectively are not meeting the needs” of Sudanese citizens.
The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president dealt a “stunning blow in many ways to the hardliners,” says USIP’s Robin Wright. However, “the hardliners still have control of the legislature and the judiciary, and they can create havoc for the new president” and his agenda.
China’s successful trip to the far side of the moon — the first nation to accomplish the feat — is not only “great advertising” for potential technology partnerships, it’s “part of the larger Chinese space effort” that seeks to expand China’s own dual-use capabilities in space, says USIP’s Dean Cheng.
Putin’s trip to North Korea wasn’t just about securing more weapons for his war on Ukraine — Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact, which could be “potentially very destabilizing for the Korean Peninsula” and “smacks a little of desperation” on Russia’s part, says USIP’s Mary Glantz.
While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”
The U.S. reached an agreement with Niger’s military junta to close two military bases in the country in what amounts to a “tactical setback” for counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. But the closure also “forces the U.S. to review its military posture in the region,” says USIP’s Joseph Sany, adding “there may be other options.”
With the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian regime has reached “a critical turning point.” And with just two weeks until the vote to replace him, it’s important to pay attention to “not only who wins the new presidency, but how many Iranians actually participate in the process,” says USIP’s Robin Wright.
As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
Chinese crime syndicates have set up sophisticated online scamming operations throughout Southeast Asia that rake in an estimated $64 billion a year. Relying on forced labor, the scam compounds “look almost like penal colonies,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding: “This is happening on an industrial scale.”
China’s military structure is not prone to change. But in a shocking move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently established a new military entity focused on “information dominance” in future wars, with many observers “left wondering what this is going to mean and why they did it,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng.
The latest round of U.S. military aid to Ukraine will help halt Russia’s slow, grinding advance. But more long-term aid is needed to not only push back Russian forces, but to deter another future invasion, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor. “The only way that this war is going to end is for [Putin’s] cause … to end.”
Contrary to China’s assertions, NATO has a long history of engagement with the Indo-Pacific. But the alliance’s deep partnerships in the region have taken on renewed importance in recent years amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and renewed strategic competition between the U.S. and China, says USIP’s Mirna Galic.
As part of the first-ever Global Summit on Indigenous Peacebuilding, Indigenous leaders have created a worldwide network to share knowledge and advocate for “Indigenous people and Indigenous processes … [to] be woven into the larger fabric” of the peacebuilding field, says USIP’s Binalakshmi Nepram.
The United States, Japan and the Philippines are holding their first-ever trilateral summit this week. China’s “unprecedented” pressure and aggression over maritime claims will top the agenda. “There’s a fairly clear resolve … to not just let China bully its way to changing the status quo in the region,” says USIP’s Vikram Singh.
ISIS-K’s recent attack on the Russian capital was, in part, intended to assert the organization’s growing capacity to inflict terror beyond its home base of Afghanistan. “By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit anywhere in the world,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
While ISIS has claimed responsibility for the devastating terror attack in Moscow, Putin has baselessly tried to shift the blame to Ukraine, says USIP’s Angela Stent: “[Putin] wants to use this to increase repression at home … and also to pursue a more aggressive path in Ukraine.”
With the governing structure now collapsing, Haitian gangs “have the country in a stranglehold,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, and that the best path to re-establish stability is “to form a new transitional government that would be more inclusive, that would have better connections to the Haitian people.”
For the first time, the International Criminal Court has charged high-level Russian commanders with crimes against humanity — showing that Russia’s assault on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is “not sporadic, it’s systematic, it’s purposeful, it’s part of a policy,” says USIP’s Lauren Baillie.
Technology partnerships like the U.S.-India INDUS-X “are going to be critical to the U.S. being able to defend and deter rising threats in the future, including the challenge of China,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. “We need the strength of our allies in these coalitions” to maintain a technological advantage.
From 1945 to 1949, an estimated million-plus people from China arrived in Taiwan. The newcomers joined an existing population of 6 million, significantly changing the demographic makeup of modern Taiwan. In this episode, we look at the stories of some of those who arrived, and how perspectives of China differ among generations and those who travel back and forth.
Two years on, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has turned into a grinding and costly territorial battle. And with so many major strategic questions left unanswered, “predicting [the conflict] going one way or the other is extremely difficult,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “A lot depends on what happens outside the battlefield.”
Everything from the economy to national security depends on critical minerals like cobalt — which has prompted immense U.S. investment in Africa’s mining infrastructure, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy: “Africa is seen as a continent where we can start to very slowly move away from our overdependence on China for critical minerals.”
Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.
China has a track record of banning products from Taiwan, including fish, alcohol, fruits and other agricultural goods. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, 35.2 percent of Taiwan's total exports went to China and Hong Kong in 2023 — down from 38.8 percent in 2022.
Haiti’s slow decline has led the country to the brink of collapse. And while the international community has offered to help, “there’s just a lot of pieces … that haven’t come together yet,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding: “It probably will take a stronger lead by the United States” to restore security and governance.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently made diplomatic stops across West Africa to continue building U.S.-Africa cooperation. However, USIP’s Joseph Sany says, “The U.S. has to ensure that the speeches are followed by deed,” adding that “African countries will also have to play their part.”
Taiwan makes 65 percent of the world’s semiconductors and roughly 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips — employing 2.5 percent of the local workforce and accounting for a staggering 15 percent of the island nation’s GDP in the process.
Despite legal challenges, Bernardo Arévalo has finally assumed Guatemala’s presidency. Attention now shifts to whether his anti-corruption platform can make a difference in a region beleaguered by instability, says USIP’s Mary Speck: “There’s a great deal of hope that Arévalo can show that democracy actually works.”
A string of recent defeats for Myanmar’s junta has “re-energized the resistance across the country,” says USIP’s Jason Tower. But as China takes a more involved approach to the conflict, there are concerns that “growing Chinese influence might pose more of a challenge to a free and open Indo-Pacific in the future.”
In October, the director of the National Security Bureau — Taiwan’s intelligence agency — warned the public against China’s possible interference in Taiwan’s elections set to be held on January 13, 2024. China might conduct and release opinion polls using local companies in Taiwan, the director said. In mid-December, a Taiwanese man was arrested for allegedly fabricating eight public opinion polls at the direction of the Chinese Communist Party in Fujian.
Taiwan elects a new president on January 13, 2024. Peace across the Taiwan Strait is on people’s minds, but where the candidates and their political parties differ is how to maintain it. All three presidential candidates have indicated they would continue Taiwan’s current foreign policies, though they have different views of what shape relations with China and with the United States should take, as well as different priorities for Taiwan’s defense preparedness.
The United States and China are watching closely as Taiwan prepares for elections on January 13. But while the stakes are high, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says there is a relative consensus among candidates regarding Taiwan’s foreign policy: “Whoever wins the election, we’re likely to see much more continuity than change.”
While the U.S. tends to separate its policies on Africa and Middle East, USIP’s Susan Stigant says recent crises in the Red Sea highlight that “this is really an interconnected space” that currently lacks “any infrastructure … that connects together those who are making decisions” along the sea’s eastern and western shores.
By intensifying Venezuela’s claim to resource-rich territory in neighboring Guyana, the Maduro regime is “trying to link this international dispute with his own domestic politics” in order to “whip up nationalist sentiment” ahead of 2024 Venezuelan elections, says USIP’s Mark Feierstein.
Conflict-related sexual violence “not just violates the physical, but the mental and social integrity of societies.” To address this crime, USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast says we need a survivor-centered approach: “Survivors are experts, they need to be [present] at every part of our understanding and … policy-shaping.”
As COP28 continues, it’s estimated that the world needs to invest $5.9 trillion to stave off climate change. “The big question now is … who’s going to pay for all this,” says USIP’s Gordon Peake, adding that “we also need to tamp down the use of fossil fuels” to prevent the bill for growing even more.
As the international community discusses new approaches for building peace, the private sector is “increasingly a major part of these geopolitical discussions,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham, with more and more “partnerships of states and private sector corporations working together to pursue national interests.”
Increased coordination between various elements of Myanmar’s resistance has sparked massive gains, says USIP’s Priscilla Clapp: “In just a few weeks, the opposition forces have managed to dislodge the military from their bases and encampments” along many parts of the borders with China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.
Last month, the U.N. Security Council echoed past assessments that not enough has been done to address conflict-related sexual violence. But researchers “have established that this particular crime of war is not inevitable,” says USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast, and there are new strategies for “how best to address the trauma” and prevent it.
The conflict in the Middle East is helping divert attention away from Russia’s war in Ukraine. And despite rumors of peace talks, USIP’s Heather Ashby says neither side seems willing to budge: “I don’t think people should be optimistic that there will be negotiations … even with a third party trying to bring the sides together.”
In asserting its claims in the South China Sea, Beijing “recognizes that international law is not on its side,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell. Instead, China has resorted to gray-zone provocations against the Philippines and others that “are deliberate, on China’s part, to keep [the situation] below the threshold of war.”
When the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was announced, developing countries were eager to partner with Beijing on infrastructure projects. But a decade later, “a lot of these countries are saddled with immense debt … now that the hype is over, there’s a lot more international scrutiny” of the BRI, says USIP’s Carla Freeman.
President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s electoral victory in August “has not sat well with the political establishment” in Guatemala, says USIP’s Mary Speck, and their attempts to undermine the transition have been met by popular protests led by Indigenous leaders advocating “on behalf of democracy.”
Ghana represents a “bastion of democracy” in a region beset by political instability. With Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo visiting Washington, D.C., this week, the United States can deepen cooperation in a way that “really supports the U.S. message of bringing peace through democracy,” says USIP’s Donna Charles.
The U.N. Security Council approved a multinational security force to address Haiti’s rampant gang violence — but another major challenge will be the volatile political environment. “There’s a lot of work just on government capacity,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “It would behoove the international community to buckle down and build that capacity.”
U.S. engagement with the Pacific Islands is “still in the honeymoon phase,” says USIP’s Gordon Peake. But as President Biden hosts the second U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit, there are a number of thorny issues that Pacific Island leaders are “hoping to get practical assistance from the United States” to address.
With Ukraine’s counteroffensive making slow, grinding progress, President Zelenskyy will meet with U.S. officials this week in search of long-term assurances “that once he pushes the Russians out of his country, they won’t come back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor, adding: “The ultimate assurance … is membership in NATO.
The comprehensive strategic partnership announced during President Biden’s trip to Vietnam marks 50 years of progress between the two countries and an “upgrade of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship to the highest level,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang, while adding a caveat that “it doesn’t mean Vietnam is becoming a U.S. ally.”
At the G20 summit, the United States should focus on engaging with the Global South. “A lot of these countries are worried about bread-and-butter issues,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. “In the absence of U.S. leadership at an institutional level … there’s going to be other actors that fill that vacuum.”
The expansion of BRICS is a significant step in the bloc’s push to counterbalance the Western-led international order. But as a consensus-based group, “the question remains to what extent will they agree on what [that] alternative world order might look like,” says USIP’s Henry Tugendhat.
While last week’s summit of U.S., South Korean and Japanese leaders may have been historic, the three countries hope “to really institutionalize trilateral cooperation going forward” through joint diplomatic and security initiatives that present “a stronger, united front” in the Indo-Pacific, says USIP's Mirna Galic.
Tensions between China and the Philippines over control of Second Thomas Shoal have become the focal point of China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to assert dominance over the South China Sea, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “Essentially what [China] is saying is that huge swath of ocean … is somehow Chinese waters.”
Ahead of the country’s second-round presidential elections later this month, USIP’s Mary Speck explains how judicial interference has injected chaos into the country’s democratic process. There are concerns that Guatemala’s democratic backsliding could reverberate throughout Central America. “What happens in Guatemala can affect the whole region.”
In the 70 years since the Korean War armistice, mutual deterrence has emerged as the prevailing strategy for preventing conflict on the peninsula. But USIP’s Frank Aum says “deterrence is not an end … [it’s] supposed to buy time” for diplomacy, and the West has the power to restart dialogue with North Korea.
After pulling out of a U.N.-backed grain deal, Russia may be looking for ways to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit. But the summit’s success is far from certain, “not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn’t lived up to its previous promises,” says USIP’s Heather Ashby.
Rather than reinforce the Nonaligned Movement’s perception of a zero-sum choice between the U.S. and other great powers like China, the U.S. should work with allies to offer “a bigger package that helps serve the people and is ultimately more sustainable than what China has to offer,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.
The NATO summit cleared major hurdles for Sweden to join the alliance and offered a consensus for Ukraine’s eventual accession. With Moscow still dealing with the fallout from Prigozhin’s recent uprising, signs indicate that “Putin is now weaker than anybody in the West thought he’d be two months ago,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen.
While much of the conversation at this week’s NATO summit will be focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the presence of NATO partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand “is a testament to … [NATO’s] interest in the Indo-Pacific and the focus on the challenges that China poses for the alliance,” says USIP’s Mirna Galic.
Ukraine’s potential admission into the Euro-Atlantic security alliance will top the agenda at next week’s summit in Lithuania. While it’s unlikely that there will be any clear-cut decision next week, “the opinion in the alliance is leading toward Ukraine moving faster rather than slower” in terms of joining, says USIP’s Mary Glantz. “I think history is on Ukraine’s side right now.”
While China “had a 20-year head start” on mining critical minerals in Africa, USIP’s Thomas Sheehy says the United States is looking to secure its own supply lines while avoiding adverse effects: “There’s a growing realization … that unless these minerals are developed in a way that works to the benefit of Africans, it’s simply not sustainable.”
While Haiti’s and Venezuela’s political, security and humanitarian situations remain dire, there are promising regional efforts underway to address both countries’ crises. While “the U.S. is looking for someone else to take the lead” on these situations, “there are things at play that are encouraging and at some point are going to need very tangible U.S. support,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.
Many Arab countries have concluded that President Bashar al-Assad is entrenched power and that they’ll need his cooperation to address challenges like refugees and the illicit drug trade. In Washington, there is no appetite to normalize with Assad. “I think ultimately what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region,” USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative seeks to supplant the U.S.-led order, and it is gaining traction in the Global South. “There is a sense among developing countries that the international security order isn’t working that well for them,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. “But none of these countries want to be forced to choose between the U.S. and China.”
After violent protests over his arrest, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was released over the weekend. However, this latest political crisis isn’t going away soon, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin: “What we’re headed to is a clash between the very powerful military and the very popular [Khan].”
Philippine President Marcos’s visit to Washington has helped usher the U.S.-Philippines relationship into “a new renaissance,” says USIP’s Brian Harding. And with growing concerns over Beijing’s influence in the Pacific, “[Marcos] is making a bet that if he deepens this relationship … that is how he’s going to deter China.”
While U.S.-Vietnam relations have progressed remarkably since the end of the Vietnam War, “we talk about reconciliation as a long-term process … so even though we’re now almost 50 years into the post-war period, that reconciliation process isn’t complete yet,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang.
As the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces continue fighting, the United States needs to avoid getting “caught in the trap that we’re trying to choose one [side] over the other. At the end of the day, there’s a third voice here, and that’s civilians and the Sudanese people,” says USIP’s Susan Stigant.
With both U.S.-China and Taiwan-China relations at low points, the United States needs to maintain unity among its multilateral partnerships, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “China loves to play bilateral games … because 1.3 billion people in the second largest economy gives them a lot of power and influence.”
While reporting and leaked files indicate that a Ukrainian offensive to expel Russian troops is in the works, USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor says Ukraine still has the element of surprise: “Everyone knows that there’s this counteroffensive coming … what they don’t know is where.”
Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania is further indication that “the U.S. is finally waking up” to opportunities in Africa, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy. “Africans want choices, they don’t want to be dependent just on Chinese investment … they want the U.S. engaged.”
As leaders gather for the Biden administration’s second democracy summit later this week, the president is working to “really push back on China’s offer” of narrow economic partnerships by “trying to make the case that you need the principles of democracy to have a good economy,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.
President Biden recently asked Canada to lead a security force to stabilize Haiti. While neither side “wants to do this as something that just props up the [interim] government,” a lack of action “doesn’t mean 11 million people go away. It just means we’re not paying attention,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.
After 12 years of extraordinary brutality and humanitarian suffering, the Assad regime remains entrenched in Syria. With no solution in sight, there is regional momentum toward normalization as countries have “made the calculation that he’s here at least for the foreseeable future,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian.
While Nigeria’s elections energized youth voters and avoided widespread violence, President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu won only a plurality of votes. As concerns over the results’ legitimacy mount, “a weak mandate means [Tinubu] is going to have to work very smartly to build coalitions,” says USIP’s Makila James.
A year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder. But any deal to end the conflict must uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The Russian military needs to leave. That’s got to be the key part of any peace proposal.”
Fifty years ago, the accords led to the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Vietnam, marking an important step toward a post-war settlement between the United States and Vietnam. Now, “There is a lot of cooperation on economic issues, education, security and on resolving the legacies of the war … we have a comprehensive partnership that is 10 years old,” says USIP’S Andrew Wells-Dang.
Amid a technological boom, space is becoming the latest front for U.S.-China strategic competition. And with only a handful of Cold War-era treaties governing it, the world “needs some new rules and norms to manage a very precious environment for the future,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman.
After an especially violent month in the West Bank, a two-state solution seems as distant a prospect as ever — leaving many “worried that we could be witnessing a spiral” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as no one seems inclined “to take the steps that would be required to realize a two-state solution,” says USIP’s Robert Barron.
The United States and India have a common cause in their tensions with China, as well as a “natural partnership” on technology investments, says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. But India remains noncommittal when it comes to Russia’s war on Ukraine: “They’ve concluded that they need Russia to stick around.”
Twelve years since the fall of Qaddafi, the United Nations' Libya mission carries the same mandate as it did in 2011. With the country still experiencing various degrees of conflict and upheaval, it’s time to “re-envision what we want the U.N. to do” in Libya and create a “mandate [that] will reflect that,” says USIP’s Thomas Hill.
One of Afghanistan's biggest achievements following the toppling of the Taliban in 2001 was the vast expansion of freedom of expression and the emergence of a vibrant free press. But just as we have seen a significant rollback of women's rights – another key achievement in the 2001-2021 period – the Taliban’s August 2021 takeover has been followed by severe repression of the media.Ayesha Tanzeem, the director of Voice of America's South and Central Asia Division, explains how Afghanistan's media landscape has changed in the last year and a half, how media organizations are fighting back and what the international community can do to help protect media freedom in Afghanistan.
Amid military struggles in Ukraine, Russia’s presence in Syria is slowly receding, setting off a series of regional shifts from Turkey, Iran and Israel that could have major ripple effects on U.S. national security interests, says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian: “There are too many actors there for it be a simple math equation.”
President Biden will meet Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida amid “a really high sense of insecurity” over North Korean missile tests, says USIP’s Mirna Galic. On the agenda: Japan’s new national security strategy, which features “potential for closer cooperation and integration of U.S. and Japan operations.”
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Congress for more assistance, he "made the case that Ukraine was defending Europe and defending the United States," says USIP's Ambassador William Taylor. And with Ukrainians more determined than ever, such aid could help usher in a Ukrainian victory over Russia.
Amid the harsh Ukrainian winter, Russia has launched a slate of rocket attacks targeting Ukrainian cities. “They can’t win … so they’re just going to attack civilian targets and hope that it weakens the resolve of the Ukrainian people,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “But there’s no sign that’s happening.”
Ahead of this week’s summit, USIP’s Joseph Sany says the United States has shifted its approach toward the continent: “Long gone are the days where America will come and dictate solutions. This time around, we are willing to listen and support African solutions for African problems.”
After protests forced China to ease its zero-COVID policies, Xi Jinping will need to weigh socioeconomic stability against his authoritarian aims, says USIP’s Andrew Scobell: “You’re seeing domestically what many countries have noticed China doing beyond its borders: Being more assertive or aggressive.”
To implement justice, diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (JDEIA), Kehinde Togun, managing director of public engagement at Humanity United, says that peacebuilding institutions need to ensure that the people who experience conflict are given the driver's seat in efforts to resolve it.
General Asim Munir was appointed as the new head of Pakistan’s military this week — a position often viewed as the de facto leader of the country. Amid a fraught political environment, Munir’s “first job is going to be figuring out what the civil-military balance is in Pakistan,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.
The joint leaders’ statement at the G20 Summit, while largely symbolic, showed that “Russia [is] a lot more isolated than perhaps we’d been led to suspect,” says USIP’s Mary Glantz, adding that Russia’s anti-imperialist justification for the war in Ukraine is “not getting the traction we thought it was.”
One of the defining aspects of Syria’s civil war has been the unspeakable atrocities committed against civilians. Barrel bombs, chemical weapons attacks, forced disappearances and torture have been inflicted on Syrian civilians for over a decade. As of 2021, human rights monitors believe that over 100,000 Syrians remain forcibly disappeared and nearly 15,000 have been tortured to death at the hands of regime forces. As we approach the 12-year anniversary of the conflict, there is still little justice for Syrians or accountability for the Assad regime, extremist groups and other parties to the conflict that have committed these atrocities.In 2016, the U.N. General Assembly established the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria (IIIM), after vetoes in the U.N. Security Council prevented referral of the Syrian situation to the International Criminal Court. IIIM Head Catherine Marchi-Uhel discusses the obstacles to this work, the progress made to date and what lessons it can provide for delivering accountability and justice in other conflicts.
A coalition involving several extreme right-wing parties has Benjamin Netanyahu poised to return as Israel’s prime minister. “In some sense he owes them a debt,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen. “What is the cost being extracted by these right-wing parties” as the government formation process begins?
No system is immune to shortcomings in justice, diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (JDEIA) — not even systems ostensibly meant to combat it, like international aid. Degan Ali, executive director of the Kenya-based nonprofit Adeso, talks about her work to not only address diversity and inclusion issues, but change the way people think about and deliver aid.
As COP27 continues in Egypt, USIP's Tegan Blaine says, "The one issue that is really beginning to explode this year is the issue of loss and damage" and support for poorer countries. "They weren't responsible for the cause, and they don’t have the resources to [address climate change] on their own."
Justice, diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (JDEIA) needs to be taken up by everyone in an organization. Maryum Saifee, a senior advisor in the Secretary of State's Office of Diversity and Inclusion, explores how to ensure JDEIA responsibilities don’t fall on one person or one office.
Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked religion as part of his justification for Russia's attack on Ukraine, believing their shared Orthodox history would lend credibility to his ambitions. "Of course, the Ukrainians beg to differ," says USIP's Knox Thames. "It's actually strengthening Ukrainian resistance to [Putin's] aggressive actions."
In this final episode of Culturally Attuned we travel around the world to hear stories from five seasoned practitioners on how to work and communicate effectively across cultural divides. From their parting advice we learn the importance of cultivating relationships with local counterparts that create trusting, inclusive, and mutually beneficial connections.
When we set out to help in some other culture or community, we have learned that we should shape our project through what practitioners call “human-centered design.” This doesn’t mean altruistically imagining our own design to fit the humans we think we see. It means investing in the community – with its members leading the design process.
People who live amid violent conflicts suffer trauma–and even inherit it when that conflict has extended across generations. While trauma can harden us against our perceived foes, remarkably, people can use shared traumas to build connections, even with those we have seen as enemies.
The human brain is hardwired to constantly scan for cues that signal safety, trustworthiness, and social desirability among others. As we work among people of different races and cultures, it’s vital that we stay aware of these patterns within our own selves, because they drive our biases. If we don’t notice our own patterns, they can obstruct valuable connections with people around us.
Working across cultural divides makes it all the more critical that we avoid prescribing solutions to problems, and instead elicit them from those we’re working with. That is Mike Zuckerman’s career-long focus—from San Francisco to Greece to Uganda. He discusses how he does it.
Cultural humility requires us to put aside our assumptions and open our minds. While we may have resources and know-how, that does not ensure that we have the best approaches or plans to meet the needs of people in another place or culture. An open mind and taking the time to listen to locals helps us to re-frame problems as well as determine what people need with more confidence. And, it is equally important to think through the consequences and potential pitfalls of any plan of action.
In many cultures, meaning is often expressed non-verbally. So, be aware of body language, expression and tone of voice. Misunderstanding is often due to poor communication and misperceptions. So, one must be prepared for different forms of communication and to work to find meaning across cultural divides.
Working with a partner across a cultural divide – for example, in a negotiation – we may face a request or an action that we must refuse. In that difficult moment, we should look first for the motive behind the action and frame a response that helps our partner retain his or her honor and thus sustains mutual respect. A vital start can be our acknowledgment of the history of the other person and his or her culture.
Roman Haferd went to a good law school and he works for the Washington, D.C. prosecutor’s office. Yet his work on behalf of justice is not as a lawyer. Rather than writing briefs or taking cases to trial, Roman heads a team of facilitators who seek “restorative justice.” Their work builds connections between perpetrators and victims, facilitating dialogues that aim to find justice in the heart, not in the courtroom. At its core, restorative justice attempts to break the cycle of crime and punishment.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping cemented himself as "clearly the most powerful ruler in China since Mao" at the recent National Party Congress. But USIP's Andrew Scobell says Xi has staked his legitimacy on delivering for the Chinese people — and sputtering economic growth poses a significant challenge going forward.
The recent escalation in North Korean missile tests and military exercises is Pyongyang's attempt at gaining leverage over the United States, says USIP's Frank Aum: "They want to create a crisis in order to pressure the United States back into talks on [North Korea's] terms."
As peacebuilders look to instill justice, diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (JDEIA) in our work, we must also examine where our own institutions and systems fall short. Raymond Chang, president of the Asian American Christian Collaborative, discusses how to engage in conversations about whiteness, systemic injustice and the need for JDEIA embedment.
Venezuela was a recurrent topic of discussions during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent tour through Latin America, says USIP’s Keith Mines: “The hemisphere is looking for a new approach to Venezuela … the previous consensus of just adding more pressure and hoping for the best is breaking down.”
With Ukraine making massive gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s escalating threats "show that [he] is getting a little bit desperate," says USIP's Mary Glantz. "He's been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victories," which has left the world "holding their breath to see what might happen."
Justice, diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility (JDEIA) is often seen as an elusive concept rather than a concrete set of values and needs. The U.S. Institute of Peace’s Joseph Sany defines JDEIA as a peacebuilding practice and explains why it’s so important for USIP to bring people together to discuss it.
As President Biden hosts a first-ever U.S. summit with Pacific Island countries, USIP’s Brian Harding says regional leaders “have some concerns” about growing U.S.-China competition — but they would rather “talk about their own interests and needs … If you ask them, their top priority by far is climate change.”
Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Joseph Sany says the occasion is “an opportunity to celebrate, reflect and demonstrate our commitment” to building peace in our communities — as well as a chance to connect with millions of others through the Peace Day Challenge.
Despite geopolitical tensions, the U.N. General Assembly remains important for cooperation on urgent global challenges like climate change, says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham: “It’s within the bureaucracy of the United Nations that a lot of countries can show leadership … If we didn’t have the U.N., I think we’d have to build it.”
After recent episodes of violence, Iraq’s political stalemate continues. “Bottom line … this is a fight over power” and differing views on foreign influence, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. “The Iraqi people are actually fighting for democracy. It is just the political class … that makes that a longer fight.”
A year on, the situation in Afghanistan is “looking really grim” as women and girls have lost the gains made over the past two decades and the country’s humanitarian crisis continues to spiral, says USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi. “The Taliban are trying to erase women from society.”
With President Ortega now attacking the Catholic Church, USIP’s Mary Speck says Nicaragua’s democratic backsliding “has gone further than any other country” in Central America — noting the risk that regional leaders could follow Ortega’s lead after they “see what [he] has been able to get away with.”
This week marks the one-year anniversary of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan. Despite pledges of moderation and reform from some Taliban factions, over the last year they have reinstated many of the harshest policies from their 1990s emirate, pushing women out of public life and brooking no dissent. For many Afghans — especially women, girls and ethnic and religious minorities — the threat of violence looms over daily life. U.S. Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri discusses how Afghans' lives have changed over the last year, what brave Afghan women are doing to protest the rollback of their rights, and how the United States and international community can help.
With “more people going hungry in Afghanistan than anywhere else in the world,” the Taliban have shown they recognize “the scope of the problems they’re facing. But they’ve also revealed … just how little they can do to grapple with the world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” says USIP's Andrew Watkins.
The 2020 Doha Agreement was meant to force the Taliban to “think twice” before harboring terror groups. But Ayman al-Zawahiri’s killing in Kabul shows the deal was “just a piece of paper for the Taliban. They had no qualms about once again hosting the main leader of al-Qaida,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
Despite loosening former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa family's powerful grip on Sri Lankan politics, there's still "a crisis of legitimacy in the country, where people see the leadership can’t deliver" on issues like reconciliation, political reform and addressing the devastating economic crisis, says USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin.
On Monday, Tunisians voted on a new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied that vastly expands the powers of his office. While turnout was low, many Tunisians “support what the president is doing … they are voting based on one specific objective, which is to improve economic and social conditions,” says USIP’s Elie Abouaoun.
As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor says the war is now "a race … between the Ukrainians trying to get new weapons coming from the United States and other NATO nations while the Russians try to move through the eastern part of the country."
Biden set to meet nine Middle East leaders, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef says the trip aims to untangle recent tensions rather than “result in all kinds of breakthroughs and deliverables … the question is whether we can set ourselves on a path that can lead to more constructive relations.”
In a new USIP book, Ambassador Frederic Hof tells the story of a secret U.S. effort to broker peace between Israel and Syria between 2009-2011. Just as that effort seemed to be making important progress, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime began to violently suppress Syrian protesters, scuttling the chance for peace. Hof discusses what the foundation of Israel-Syria peace would have looked like, the pre-2011 perceptions of Assad as a "reformer," President Biden's trip to the Middle East and how the international community should deal with the Syrian dictator today.
As it stands, both sides see little reason to engage in peace talks. But USIP’s Juan Diaz-Prinz says that shouldn’t stop the international community from trying to incentivize an end to the conflict: “We’ve got to try everything, and we’ve got to try every avenue until the right one fits.”
Russia’s war in Ukraine has deepened a global food crisis that has left hundreds of millions facing acute hunger. Beyond the humanitarian challenges this crisis presents, it could stoke violence and conflict in fragile regions. U.N. World Food Program Chief Economist Arif Husain discusses the state of global hunger, why it’s vital that we rethink our response to conflict and what can be done in the immediate to stave off the worst.
With back-to-back G-7 and NATO summits this week, USIP's Donald Jensen says President Biden is focused on maintaining unity among allies and partners as the war in Ukraine grinds on: "Putin is counting on the faltering of Western assistance and political support for Ukraine … and that's what we’ll see discussed this week."
Last summer, “Tunisians had really reached a breaking point in their frustration with the previous government” and welcomed President Kais Saied’s dissolution of parliament, says USIP’s Leo Siebert. But that hope “is now shifting to apprehensiveness that things might not be going in the right direction.”
While "there was a lot of controversy on the way in," USIP's Keith Mines says the summit produced several notable outcomes, including a declaration on migration, that give regional leaders a chance to "put some resources behind [these issues] and hopefully pull together some new initiatives."
With no establishment candidate left, Colombia's June 19 presidential runoff reflects voters' perception that "things [on] the ground are quite bleak" as the remaining candidates "promise significant degrees of change for Colombia and its relationship with the United States," says USIP’s Steve Hege.
President Biden returned from Asia “having scored some positive points in the region,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. But Biden’s forceful backing of Taiwan and China’s response is leading to “actual risk that there could be a collision … which could spark some kind of conflict.”
Amid a flurry of Asia diplomatic initiatives, USIP’s Frank Aum says President Biden’s trip is a chance to show the United States is committed to having a major presence in the Indo-Pacific, but that “this is not something that happens in a single summit… We’re going to have to continue to strengthen those efforts.”
Security, territorial and political tensions between Southern Asia’s three nuclear states — Pakistan, India and China — "have gotten worse over the past few years," says USIP's Daniel Markey. "These are countries that have been at war a number of times… that [makes] these hostilities difficult to manage."
Ahead of this week’s U.S.-ASEAN summit, USIP’s Brian Harding says the Biden administration is “kicking off a really intense period of diplomatic engagement with Asia” with plans to draw a contrast with China and seek cooperation on issues such as climate change and supply chains.
Amid ongoing revelations of atrocities committed against Ukrainians at the hands of Russian forces, USIP’s Lauren Baillie says efforts to investigate and prosecute these crimes will require creativity and “the ability to think more broadly about how we bring perpetrators to justice and recognize the unique needs of victims.”
As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, USIP’s Heather Ashby says the United States should “keep an eye on Russia’s security partnerships with [African] countries” and pay close attention to “whether the rise in fuel prices or food scarcity trigger any type of unrest” on the continent.
As Russia withdraws resources from Myanmar to focus on Ukraine, China has filled the void by publicly supporting the junta. Meanwhile, the situation inside Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with “the military only able to hang on [to power] by using violence of tragic proportions,” says USIP’s Jason Tower.
Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin says, “There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament” but that “his downfall really, number one, was the economy.”
Israel’s Negev summit with top Arab and U.S. diplomats was “groundbreaking” for the region. “You could not think of a more dramatic way to underscore the acceptance of Israel into the Arab world,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.
With Russian forces reportedly shifting focus to Donbas, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “Overall the Russian military has been unmasked to be … quite a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. But that doesn't mean they're not dangerous or effective in some places.”
While there are similarities between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says the two situations are markedly different upon closer inspection: “Russia also likes to flout international norms [while] China largely pretends to be playing by them.”
For the first time in 20 years, USIP's Donald Jensen says we've seen cracks in Russian elites' allegiance to Putin: "While they're still amorphous and not very organized, they're clearly unhappy." And if the war drags on and losses mount, "Putin has a big, long-term problem on his hands."
As Ukraine's military continues to resist Russian advances throughout the country, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor offers the latest updates on the situation, saying that "the international tide is clearly turning against Russia" as more nations implement sanctions and that "Russia is now a pariah state."
The pandemic has “really laid bare some inequalities” facing those with disabilities, says USIP’s Elizabeth Murray. But last week’s Global Disability Summit offered “an opportunity for disability inclusion to be integrated across U.S. foreign policy,” particularly when it comes to peacebuilding programs.
As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s Asfandyar Mir says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”
After the annual PeaceCon featured climate change as one of the conference’s main themes, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says, “It’s no longer possible to say that climate change does not intersect with peacebuilding. The realities are there … we need to be more honest about what the likely impacts are going to be.”
A year after the military coup, Myanmar’s diverse opposition is working together on an alternative to military rule. USIP’s Priscilla Clapp says while “it will take years to bring a consensus about for this new government, it’s a very good start … we have hope that there can be unity there if they work on it.”
Kazakhstan has stabilized after protests broke out to start the new year. USIP’s Gavin Helf says while the sudden unrest was driven by “real, honest-to-goodness protests … what we really saw was the weakness of authoritarian systems,” as loyalists of the previous and current leaders clashed amid the public upheaval.
While Ukraine’s military is in much better shape than when Russia first invaded in 2014, USIP’s William Taylor says it’s “not able to hold off the entire Russian military” alone, and that the United States and NATO must “make it clear to President Putin that the costs of invading will be much greater than the benefits.”
Despite the military junta’s imprisonment of ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, USIP’s Billy Ford says there’s an opening for more inclusive narratives within the resistance movement — and if the movement can “unify around those [narratives] … it could come together and potentially defeat this regime.”
Despite a “near-total loss of faith in the political process” going into 2022, USIP’s Keith Mines says Venezuelans have not lost hope for a better future — and that underneath the polarization and dissatisfaction, you can “find a vision for the country that is shared by most Venezuelans.”
Three decades after President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, beginning the dissolution of the Soviet Union, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “The collapse is still continuing. It didn’t fall apart at once … and in many ways [it] shapes our relationship with Eastern Europe and Russia today.”
While China’s influence in Southeast Asia is inevitable, the region welcomed Secretary Blinken’s recent trip as a counterweight to Beijing, says USIP’s Brian Harding: “[The region] wants balance, which means they want the United States to be as engaged as possible.”
With the vote likely to be postponed, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says frustrations are high over Libya’s political and economic stagnation as the international community tries to “generate a new political agreement … just to make sure the elections can happen without a major outbreak of violence.”
Amid a global democratic recession, USIP’s Joseph Sany says President Biden’s Summit for Democracy is an important “statement of solidarity,” but that “if [democracies] want to regain or strengthen their legitimacy,” they must deliver for their people, adding: “If you lose the citizens’ trust, you lose everything.”
It’s been 40 years since the U.N. adopted a resolution to end persecution based on faith and defend religious minorities. USIP’s Knox Thames says decades later, “It’s a work in progress … While the situation is bleak, there is a global movement that is starting to build and trying to meet this challenge.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal was a major step toward re-establishing U.S. engagement on the continent, says USIP’s Makila James: “Showing up matters in Africa … it’s important to demonstrate to Africans that Africa is vital to U.S. national interests.”
As the climate summit wraps up, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says the focus on net-zero commitments overshadowed immediate concerns such as addressing climate-driven migration: “We needed to commit to these things 10 years ago, 20 years ago … and we didn’t. So now the time is quite short.”
As rebel forces march toward Ethiopia’s capital in a bid to end the government blockade of the Tigray region, USIP’s Susan Stigant says there is a “risk that this logic of violence could tilt into a much deeper civil war.” In the meantime, Washington should keep trying to “get people to a table and agree to a pause.”
As Afghans face mass hunger and economic collapse, USIP’s Scott Worden says it remains to be seen how the Taliban will react to internal and external pressure to address these crises: “Will they respond … by adapting, by softening policies, by being more inclusive or will they have a crackdown?”
USIP’s Donald Jensen looks at what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent trip to several countries along the Black Sea means for U.S. policy, saying, “We are looking at the region in its entirety … and Romania, Ukraine and Georgia are key players in the broader effort to curb Russian influence in the region.”
As Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Colombia, USIP’s Keith Mines notes there is still work to be done in implementing and expanding the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC insurgency, saying that “consolidating the peace in a place like Colombia was almost as hard as fighting the war itself.”
While West African countries present “some of the steepest declines in democracy,” USIP’s Oge Onubogu says there is “still an overwhelming support” for democratic governance among citizens in the region, which “presents a key opportunity for engagement between African leaders and this administration.”
“All the energy of the country is focused on October 10” as Iraq prepares for crucial parliamentary elections, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. “We’ll see if it will produce a government and a parliament that [is] closer to what the people expect … and restore some of the faith of the voters in the process.”
U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.
USIP’s Dan Markey says the growth of the Quad — a partnership between the United States, Australia, India and Japan — can be seen as a counter to China, but “instead of being principally a military organization, the Quad … will focus on more positive ventures” such as vaccine diplomacy, climate change and technology.
As the 2021 U.N. General Assembly begins amid a host of global crises, USIP’s Corinne Graff says this year’s theme of resilience must “deal not just with the symptoms of these emergencies, but the root causes as well” and that effective governance is “key to building resilience against many of the global challenges we face today.”
Amid the fallout from the Taliban’s sudden takeover, USIP’s William Byrd warns that Afghanistan’s economy faces a catastrophic outlook if action isn’t taken — adding that “the Afghan people and the economy have a lot farther to fall than they did the previous time the Taliban were in charge.”
Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely top the agenda during Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s meeting with President Biden. But USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the talks will also serve as a “relational reset … this will really be about setting a tone between these two new leaders.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. After a brief hiatus, On Peace is available again on a weekly basis. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Transcript
Julie Mason: Yesterday's planned meeting at the White House between the president and the visiting Israeli prime minister was delayed because of that bombing in Kabul. They're back on the schedule today. What do the Israelis want? What's the big ask? Joining me now Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, is director of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict program at the U.S. Institute of Peace here to talk about the Israeli prime minister's visit. Hi, Lucy.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Hi, Julie. Thanks for having me on the show.
Julie Mason: Oh, great to have you. So this is their first sit down, what's on the agenda?
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Well, I think beyond the agenda, and the substance that's on there, this meeting is very much about tone. We've heard a lot of verbiage coming from Prime Minister Bennett before his meeting, before getting on the plane, and while being here about a new spirit of cooperation he's bringing to Washington. And so I think that's an important thing, when we look at this meeting, this is the term that's being used a lot: a "relational reset." We have to remember the Prime Minister Bennett is coming in as prime minister after 12 consecutive years of Benjamin Netanyahu in that role, so his predecessor really dominated the Israeli political scene in the U.S.-Israeli relationship. And his style, particularly with Democratic presidents, and most recently with President Obama under whom, of course, President Biden served as vice president, was somewhat famously confrontational. So again, Iran certainly will be on the agenda, Prime Minister Bennett has made it clear that that's his number one priority, Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be discussed, but beyond those key agenda items, this really will be about setting a tone between these two leaders who are meeting for the first time.
Julie Mason: And what should we expect from Bennett? How is he different from Netanyahu?
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Well, interestingly, on politics and ideology, one might say they're not that much different. Again, their positions on issues like Iran, which again is really Prime Minister Bennett's priority issue here, is very similar. Both have been opposed to the signing of the Iran deal, signed in 2015, under the Obama administration, and what you can expect, Prime Minister Bennett to be bringing to Washington and his discussions about Iran is really strong efforts to prevent the U.S. from entering back into the agreement and to taking a much more hardline approach to Iran. Similarly, on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Prime Minister Bennett is very opposed to a Palestinian state, to a two state solution, and has traditionally been a supporter of settlement growth and expansion. So in terms of differences on policy, there might not be so much daylight. But again, there is a matter of tone here, Prime Minister Bennett seems to be someone who has internalized the notion that was held by many Israelis for years that Israel's at its strongest in its relationship with the United States when that relationship is a bipartisan one. And that's something we saw crumble under Prime Minister Netanyahu, particularly during the Obama years.
Julie Mason: Well, I mean, even during the Obama years, yeah, they they antagonized each other, and you could tell they didn't like each other, but Israel still got pretty much everything it wanted, you know, in terms of military assistance, and etc., from the Obama administration. I mean, that didn't let up at all.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: That's certainly the case, the level of support that the U.S. has provided Israel has been consistent, there was a 10 year Memorandum of Understanding signed under the Obama administration. This is still in effect. And so that is definitely the case, again, so much was, was in tone in relationship. And of course, President Biden is someone who has always prided himself on the strength of personal relationships with foreign leaders. So again, I think this is something that you're going to see when you have a president, a United States president, who's consistently, over his decades, first as senator and then as vice president, and now of course, as president has really been someone who's been a strong proponent of a strong U.S.-Israel relationship. And someone who I believe is met with every prime minister of Israel since Golda Meir in the 1970s. You know, I think you're going to see a heavy lean on, on a focus during this meeting, on the shared interest, the years of strong cooperation, and statement of intent for that kind of cooperation to continue,
Julie Mason: Because it does sound like the policy differences are noteworthy. I mean, just on the JCPOA, Biden still wants to get back into that, doesn't he?
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: He does. I think the U.S., this administration, sees very strongly a return to diplomacy as the first option. You've heard comments from members of administration that that doesn't mean that if that doesn't work, they would rule out other approaches, but diplomacy very much seems to be in re-entering that agreement, if they can, seems to be very much the first priority. Whereas, you know, as mentioned, from Prime Minister Bennett's perspective, that's futile. It's a lost cause dealing with Iran that way, and I think they'd like to see something that's stronger, an alternative approach.
Julie Mason: And Lucy, can you give us a brief status update on the situation between Israel and the Palestinians, seems to have quieted down.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Well, so, on the eve of Bennett coming to Washington, you've seen this past week tensions really ratcheting up on the border between Gaza and Israel. There have been demonstrations at the border. You've seen Hamas really showing an impulse to ratchet things up, and I think ratchet up the pressure on Israel. They're not pleased with how the terms of the ceasefire is going after the last escalation in May. And I think that you're seeing signs of that, with trying to gain some leverage there. Egypt's been playing a very robust role, it seems, in talking both to Israel and Hamas in terms of keeping tensions at a minimum. And I think you have seen some quiet in the last few days, and I think, in no small part due to diplomatic efforts there of Egypt, but of course, that area is going to remain a flashpoint in this conflict, when things are quiet, they are never quiet for long and so that also, of course, is a shadow overhanging this meeting when Bennett got on the plane to come to Washington.
Julie Mason: Really, really interesting stuff, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, director of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, Lucy, thank you.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Thank you very much.
Ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-awaited visit to Washington, USIP’s Donald Jensen says many in D.C. “see the [Ukrainian] fight against corruption as a key benchmark” in determining the future of U.S. assistance, including for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. After a brief hiatus, On Peace is available again on a weekly basis. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Transcript
Julie Mason: Donald Jensen is director of Russia and strategic stability for the United States Institute of Peace, Donald, good morning.
Donald Jensen: Good morning. Thanks for having me on again.
Julie Mason: Yeah, great to have you. Um, the idea of the of the Ukrainian leader coming to the US to meet with Biden fills me with a sense of dread.
Donald Jensen: It should not, I think that would be my own personal take. It's been a fraught discussion about whether and when this would take place going back to the Trump administration. So what's gonna happen? The Ukrainians are also very interested in high tech, they have a developed high tech sector of their own. And so he'll be going to California after he sees the president.
Julie Mason: Interesting, not unlike Medvedev, who came to visit Obama and also spent a little time out in California.
Donald Jensen: I remember, I remember very well.
Julie Mason: So Zelensky coming to D.C., August 31. This long postponed meeting, boy Ukraine has been trying to get to the White House for a long time now.
Donald Jensen: It has, it has. Ukraine has a number of needs, that we know, and they're very serious ones: military assistance, above all; they need to reform parts of their economy; and also, corruption remains a big, big, controversial issue, not only in general, but with the U.S. in particular. As you may have seen, the president criticized Ukraine's record on fighting corruption the other day, and Zelensky snapped back: Well, it happens everywhere. They are trying, not with enough success, I think.
Julie Mason: We've definitely lost a lot of moral high ground in recent years, we may never get it back. Even Ukraine is making fun of us now.
Donald Jensen: Yes, I think that's true. And that's was a very, very rare comment. They are trying, just, the results have not been what either side has has wanted it. And of course, Ukraine has its critics, not only in Moscow, but elsewhere in Europe, Western Europe, and also here and people see fighting against corruption as a key, a key benchmark of whether we should go further and assist them some more in all of their needs, including military.
Julie Mason: How is Zelensky doing domestically?
Donald Jensen: He came into office, as you may recall, with a wave of enthusiasm, a lot of new-breed people who were not in public life during the previous administrations or the Soviet era, of course. His polling is gone down a lot. I think there's no other alternative right now for most Ukrainian voters. So if I were to, to predict I would say he would get reelected in a couple of years, but he's certainly not as popular. He emphasized his ability to bring the war to a close, he emphasized his ability to fight corruption. And he's not been particularly successful on either, although, of course, with the fighting in Donbas, the Russians are the culprit, not Zelensky.
Julie Mason: Now, this, I would imagine, this is a bit of a sensitive spot for Joe Biden as well.
Donald Jensen: It is, it is. Almost within minutes last week of the events in Kabul, the Russian propaganda machine started to crank out: "The U.S. will not come to your assistance." And of course, there's every indication that they will, but that was immediately a theme played on Russian media and even echoed of in some quarters in Kiev, that the U.S. is not reliable. However, the U.S. has been very reliable. And if anything, we may even see some greater commitments to military assistance coming out of this meeting.
Julie Mason: Zelensky, unhappy with the recent U.S.-German agreement on Nord Stream 2, what's Ukraine's involvement in that pipeline?
Donald Jensen: Well, Ukraine sees, as they should, the Nord Stream 2 as a threat, the completion of the pipeline, as a threat to their own energy security and as a threat to their revenue streams. As you probably noticed, Merkel was in Moscow over the weekend talking with Putin, her last trip. And so Ukraine is very, very nervous about it. Ukraine wishes that the pipeline had been stopped, but it's not. So Ukraine is trying to adjust and they not happy about what's going on.
Julie Mason: I wonder if Biden and Zelensky will do a little two and two presser at the White House.
Donald Jensen: That would be interesting. I don't recall offhand whether Zelensky speaks English but they very well may. We'll have to see.
Julie Mason: Can't wait. Thank you so much for joining me, Donald Jensen, director, Russia and strategic stability at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Have a great day, Donald.
Donald Jensen: Thank you, Julie.
USIP’s Tegan Blaine says we must be cognizant of how efforts to reduce climate change can exacerbate instability and conflict, as the resources needed for a greener global economy “are in places where the countries are already politically fragile” and higher demand adds more stress to already burdened institutions.
While cooperation on war legacy issues topped the agenda during U.S. Defense Secretary Austin’s recent trip to Vietnam, USIP’s Brian Harding says the deepening U.S-Vietnam relationship is, in part, meant “to balance what they’re concerned about on [Vietnam’s] northern border” with China.
Nuclear diplomacy has long been a bilateral affair between the United States and Russia. But with China, North Korea and possibly Iran emerging as nuclear threats, USIP’s Bill Taylor says, “The number of actors is a threat to stability” requiring a new framework for addressing issues of nuclear security.
As China steps up its engagement in Africa amid lagging vaccination rates and tensions in Ethiopia, USIP’s Joseph Sany says U.S. policy must avoid a narrow, competitive mindset: “[China] is doing what a major superpower does … [the United States] must address African interests, not impose American interests.”
While many students learn about conflict through the lens of violence, USIP’s Megan Chabalowski says the Institute’s Peace Teachers program offers a more nuanced, positive alternative: “It can be really eye-opening for students to see that [peace] is something really practical that you can work toward.”
With the world’s fifth largest population, a nuclear-armed military, an important role in Afghanistan and a close relationship with China, Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests. Although there have been periods of turmoil, “Both countries must have a relationship and, ostensibly, share some interests,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.
Myanmar’s military expected to reclaim control quickly after February’s coup. But USIP’s Priscilla Clapp says that “when the civilian protests persisted beyond a month, the military began to panic … As a result, the country has descended into chaos and widespread indiscriminate violence.”
As Lebanon teeters on the edge of total state collapse, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says very little stands in the way of malign actors and possibly a new migrant crisis in the region: “The lights are truly blinking red … if the army collapses, then, honestly, I think all bets are off.”
Despite numerous points of tension, Presidents Biden and Putin characterized this week’s meeting in positive terms. Now, “the administration is trying to decide to what extent to cooperate with the Kremlin … and to what extent to push back,” said USIP’s Donald Jensen ahead of the summit.
With pivotal elections scheduled for October, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says Iraqis “want democracy, they’re fighting for it with their lives.” Meanwhile, Iraq is still grappling with simmering discontent among many citizens and the destabilizing role of foreign powers.
Troop withdrawal is ahead of schedule, but that’s “proving to be bad news for the overall political situation … and a setback for peace talks,” says USIP’s Scott Worden. While it seems likely that fighting will ramp up, if another military stalemate occurs there could be “a ripe opportunity for talks.”
People’s identities are multi-layered—giving us various possible points of connection with another person. Stereotypes obscure those possibilities, as Afghan Taliban negotiators found when they talked with an Indian-American Muslim diplomat named Tamanna Salikuddin. Tamanna tells how she seeks individuals’ identities to build the trust for negotiations.
Cuban-American-European mediator Juan Diaz-Prinz says cultural competence means understanding not simply cultures but people and their values—honoring both a community and an individual. It means creating a space with another person in which they can safely talk about problems and seek ways with you to address them.
We accept our need to show cultural respect. But Brazilian psychotherapist Kerley Most says West Africa taught her the difference between learning a culture and absorbing it. She notes the extraordinary value of correcting our mistakes. While as guests we’re often given a pass on cultural norms, that’s a privilege we should try to decline.
Tom Price has built a career helping marginalized communities—from Native American tribes to hurricane-ravaged towns to locales facing the Ebola virus in Liberia. He warns himself, and us, against the temptation of the outside benefactor to imagine that, because we have resources and privileges, we also have the solution to a community’s problem.
How do we build trust across cultural divides? USIP’s Leanne Erdberg Steadman has spent years seeking trust across the most painful of chasms—with former violent extremists in the Middle East and Africa. She shares a story of what she’s learned.
Any relationship is shaped by a first meeting. To prepare those encounters, USIP trainer and cross-cultural expert Stephen Moles suggests we go beyond what’s in the rule books. Stephen suggests an approach for this work that he’s built from experience in more than 65 countries.
Burning Man Project’s Kim Cook has—literally—danced on the cross-cultural divide. She recalls lessons in cultural competence from her work in creative enterprises like theater and hip-hop. (And one day … there was that chocolate cupcake.) For Kim, humble persistence is the way to overcome our inevitable gaps in cultural understanding.
Laurette Bennhold Samaan was born with roots in three distinct cultures. But even as a multicultural native, she says, her missteps have taught her how cross-cultural competency is never fully natural, and cannot be reduced to formulas. Identity, context and humility are critical, she says.
As Israel heads toward a fourth election in two years, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the incoming Biden administration will need to engage in a “balancing act” to “navigate this situation and not start off with a rocky, tempestuous relationship.”
Home to about 2 billion people, South Asia has become a strategic focal point for China’s growing global influence. USIP’s Jacob Stokes says to properly counterbalance Beijing in the region, the United States should focus “less about responding to China … and more engaging with the states of South Asia.”
Last weekend’s legislative elections proved to be “by no means fair or credible,” says USIP’s Steve Hege. To get the country back on track, Hege says a new U.S. administration will “have to work with the opposition and generate within the Venezuelan people some degree of belief in electoral politics.”
With news of a breakthrough in Afghan peace talks, USIP’s Scott Smith warns that future troop withdrawal should “switch from a time-based deadline approach to a conditions-based approach” because if the Taliban believe withdrawal is inevitable, “they have no incentive to compromise.”
As global restrictions on faith reach all-time highs, USIP’s Knox Thames say the United States must continue to be a vocal leader in combatting persecution and pursuing religious freedom, saying, “I think the time is right … anything we say goes out like a megaphone to the rest of the world.”
As rising violence in Ethiopia threatens to pull neighboring Eritrea into the fray, USIP’s Susan Stigant says, “There is a real need for some external, independent investigator to help diffuse some of that escalation” and look into disturbing reports of human rights violations stemming from the conflict.
Intense polarization in Bolivia, Venezuela, and Colombia will present Washington with significant challenges in the years ahead. But USIP’s Keith Mines says, for the most part, leaders in those countries “are looking for a way forward … there’s a more realistic framework of coexistence that’s emerging.”
Two decades after the passage of the landmark resolution on women, peace and security, USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast points to the 86 countries that have taken action to address the unique experience of women in conflict as proof of progress, but says that getting women more involved in peace processes is “a long game … it is difficult to find room for women at any table.”
A year after Iraqis took to the street, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says, “The spirits of the protest remain strong,” but that reforms undertaken so far don’t match the scale of the crises facing Iraq: “Those things have not changed daily lives … so the frustration of the people continues.”
As fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh continues to escalate, USIP’s Ann Phillips breaks down the complex geopolitical stakes that have sprung up around the conflict, which “has been simmering, and ebbing and flowing, ever since the implosion of the Soviet Union.”
Sudan’s transitional government has signed a peace agreement to end a number of long-standing conflicts and civil wars. USIP’s Susan Stigant says this is a positive sign for democratic progress, as “one of the promises of the revolution was to seek peace,” but cautioned that the real “work only begins once the ink is on the paper.”
While this year is the U.N.’s 75th Anniversary, the General Assembly was a “more muted affair” than expected, says USIP’s Tyler Beckelman. Member states had a chance to discuss the newly signed Abraham Accord and the future of multilateral diplomacy, but virtual summitry is “no substitute for meeting in person.”
With talks finally underway between the Taliban and Afghan government, USIP’s Scott Worden says initial expectations should be tempered, as the chances for success are “low in the short term, but much higher than if the talks hadn’t begun,” adding, “you can’t end a war without starting a peace process.”
USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast discusses the inspiring work of Women Building Peace Award recipient Rita Lopidia of South Sudan, as well as the other finalists, praising “the incredible resilience that each of these 10 women has brought to situations of inequality, of extreme violence, and despair.”
After an “obviously crooked election” in Belarus sparked massive protests, USIP’s Don Jensen says Russia is quietly using the situation to assert influence. If Moscow’s military presence in Belarus increases, “I think you’re going to see a much more forward projection of Russian power against NATO,” he said.
While a break from longstanding precedent, USIP’s Robert Barron says that normalization between Israel and the UAE was “perhaps a long time coming … [and] it definitely represents an upcoming generation of leadership in the Gulf.” Meanwhile, questions over Israel’s annexation plans continue to linger.
After months of public protests, a military coup has toppled Mali’s government. USIP’s Susan Stigant looks at the path forward, saying “there’s a real tension in trying to figure out how to restore that constitutional order without necessarily going back to the status quo prior to the coup.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Transcript
Tim Farley: Looking at the Associated Press story: it was a picture postcard meant to portray unity in the vast and fragile lands that once were French colonies, President Emmanuel Macron standing with the leaders of five West African countries, where France has spearheaded a counterterrorism war since 2013. “We are all convinced that victory is possible,” President Macron said. That was less than two months ago. Today, one of the five leaders has fallen: Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, the president of Mali, the country at the center of the battle against Islamic extremists, was ousted last week in a coup d'état, but an unflinching Macron is pressing on, refusing to withdraw France’s 5,100 troops from West Africa and the story goes on.
Let us get a sense of what is taking place in this nation, why it is important to you, because although foreign policy doesn't typically play out too much in presidential politics, it is something that is obviously going to be important as we move forward. Joining us now on POTUS is Susan Stigant, director of Africa programs at the United States Institute of Peace. She is tweeting @susanstigant. Susan, welcome back to POTUS. Thank you for being on today.
Susan Stigant: Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for having me on.
Tim Farley: So, help us understand a little bit more of the context of what happened. You know that there seemed to be so much promise. Why did Ibrahim Boubacar Keita go away? Why was he taken down?
Susan Stigant: Well, the really immediate events were a series of discussions at a military base just outside of Bamako that ultimately tipped into this mutiny and the arrest of both the president and the prime minister. But there have been several months of protests that have really been an indication of growing discontent across the country over the lack of ability of the government to respond to the extremist insurgency, over increasing corruption, over fundamental failures of governance, and the most basic things: education, schools, roads and basic security for Malian citizens. People saw that things continued to happen in the wrong directions, had taken to the street to protest, and had actually demanded that President Keita step down before this mutiny took place. There are also recent elections that took place in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, limited participation, and where several of the local elections were overturned in a very controversial step, which has further fueled the tensions and the frustrations felt by the citizens across the country.
Tim Farley: Is there any sense that the pandemic, the coronavirus pandemic has played a role in this at all
Susan Stigant: I think in most places across Africa, we see that the coronavirus pandemic is laying bare some of the fragility that exists, that the inability of governments to effectively respond. People see that there's a need for hospitals and they look again, and they see that money that should have gone to develop primary health care centers has often gone into the pockets of governments, are being redirected in ways that aren't fundamentally helping citizens. And certainly, the decision to hold the elections amidst pandemic and then to rather dramatically cancel the results of several significant number of the results, and those local constituencies certainly brought these concerns to a tipping point.
Tim Farley: Susan, I mentioned that France and the role that they have right now in what has been going on, I wonder what the U.S. role has been in any other major players outside of Mali who have been involved in trying to figure out a way forward here.
Susan Stigant: The U.S. has certainly been deeply involved in Mali via support of the French-led efforts. There's also a U.N. peacekeeping mission that's been deployed in Mali to support the response to the extremist organizations. But the lead in terms of negotiating next steps has been taken by the regional economic community, the surrounding countries, including Nigeria, that takes a very active role. There's also a significant role that the United Nations will look at in terms of trying to mediate next steps. And there's a real dilemma that's being faced at the moment. There's a norm that coup d'états are not acceptable, and that you have to move immediately and as quickly as possible back to a constitutional order to civilian-led rule. And at the same time, it's really clear that President Keita did not enjoy the confidence and legitimacy and so there's a real tension and trying to figure out how to restore that constitutional order without necessarily going back to the status quo prior to the coup itself.
Tim Farley: That's the point you're making, it sounds like the military has said it's up to the people of Mali to decide but they're making the call right now, are they not?
Susan Stigant: This is the fundamental dilemma, I think, that is being faced. In coups and other places around the neighborhood, there's been a real push to move for the military to quickly hand over the role of governance. At this stage in the negotiations, it sounds like the military has shifted to a much longer timeline; there were reports that they were talking about a three-year transition. I think that's probably much too long and this will be really the fundamental point that will need to be negotiated. The other challenge is, of course, that, you know, the security sector isn't disconnected from the problems that are faced in the country, from the corruptions from the governance issues and so in thinking about a response to the extremist insurgency and the violence that exists, there's certainly a security response to protect people in the immediate term, but more importantly, there's a need to address the fundamental reasons that radicalization can occur in communities in Mali. And that takes a different approach: that takes re-establishing a state society relationship, people having confidence that the security sector will protect them, not be a threat to them.
Tim Farley: Once again, Susan Stigant with us, director of Africa programs at the United States Institute of Peace. Mali’s a huge country. I mean, it's what, about 475,000 square miles, something like that, and it's only got about 19 million people. How important is it in terms of number one, the region, and also in terms of worldwide?
Susan Stigant: I mean, Mali really sits at the heart of the Sahel, which has been one of the regions that's been most seriously impacted by extremist violence. And so, what we've seen in Mali is that it's a place where the violence that takes place in the country has now tipped out of the borders into other neighboring countries and actually risks tipping into coastal West Africa. Countries like Ghana and Senegal, who are a long-standing, I think key anchor partners to the United States. They are countries that have upheld democratic norms and elections. They are key trading partners as well. And so the overflow of the extremist threat has actually led to a coalition of the regional countries coming together in a military operation that that stands side-by-side with the French led operation. So getting it right in Mali is incredibly important to provide a foundation to stabilize and lay the groundwork for a more democratic, accountable governance across the continent.
Tim Farley: And the United States, obviously, you talked about the role and I wonder, are we on it? You know, in other words like, obviously, this is not one of the issues that we hear an awful lot about lately. There are a few other things that people are talking about these days. But I just wonder, you know, they got it in hand, the State Department on top of this, I mean, give us a sense of the involvement of the U.S. right now and its level of engagement.
Susan Stigant: I mean, I think one of the great opportunities at the moment is this emerging consensus in the U.S. government across the various agencies on what we talk about as part of the fragility agenda that there's a critical need to take a long-term view to focus centrally on the state-society relationship, to focus not just on training and equipping and capacitating militaries to fight extremists, but to work on what we talk about as security governance, so the ability of security sectors to work under civilian control and work in a way that responds to citizens needs and priorities.
So I think if the U.S. government is able to harness and apply some of those fundamental understandings about what works in context, like Mali—granted, it's incredibly complex—there's a great opportunity and it's a place where as you said, and France as a partner, globally is, is leading, but the U.S. role is really important, for reasons that you had talked about earlier, France has limited credibility, and some people will view its engagement in the Sahel and Mali as an extension of colonial times as a kind of a neo-imperialist agenda. So, there's a real need to balance and step back allow leadership from the African continent, but also to make clear that democratic norms accountable governance, protection of citizens and accountable decision-making is really a priority and an expectation of our partners.
Tim Farley: I just feel like sometimes regardless of the administration, administration's come and go, but there's a constant, which is the desire or the even the statement that we are going to be more engaged with Africa just in general, forget just about Mali, but that never really seems to happen or it doesn't seem to happen to the level that the promises made.
Susan Stigant: I think there's there have been some really encouraging initiatives in the past and some of those have continued over this administration, whether it's on agriculture and growth, the Power Africa initiative that supports getting electrification so that households can have basic services and can go to school and study and read at night, or the Mandela Fellowship Program that brings with tens of, hundreds of thousands and engage hundreds of thousands of young Africans with U.S. partners. But it's certainly an area where more attention can be built. It's the largest growing continent. It's the youngest continent. The young people on the continent look to the United States with the example that they want to emulate, and they're politically active. They want democratic and accountable governance. And they really look to the United States to help to develop the system that they understand the U.S. has been able to deliver to its own people. So, the expectations are high. The needs are great. The potential is absolutely amazing. So, I think, you know, continuing to build on what is there in the foundation is a great opportunity.
Tim Farley: Thanks for that forward-looking perspective, Susan, thanks for being on the show. Susan Stigant: Thank you very much.
Tim Farley: Susan Stigant, director of Africa programs at the United States Institute of Peace. What happens now in the wake of a coup in Mali, she's tweeting @susanstigant.
As Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi makes his first official visit to Washington, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says the trip is a chance to reset relations between the two countries, but “it’s really important to not define the relationship … just in terms of security,” and also focus on Iraq’s economic challenges and recovery from ISIS.
In the wake of the Beirut explosion, USIP’s Osama Gharizi says much of the international aid is being channeled through NGOs and other third-party sources, as “there is a general loss of faith in the Lebanese establishment” after the prime minister and other officials were forced to resign.
With the Israeli-Palestinian peace process at a standstill, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef talks about a new, diverse quartet of states that can help reinvigorate talks, saying, “joining hands, they can influence both the Arab position and the European position.”
The global rise in religious discrimination and oppression risks creating new cycles of violence. USIP’s Jason Klocek says we must “rethink … some of the conventional wisdom we have about religious freedom and its relationship to peace and development” if we want to reverse this trend and prevent conflict.
As the United States and China focus more on Southeast Asia, USIP’s Brian Harding says the region’s 10 diverse nations have “become a pretty impressive bloc … [they] realize that U.S.-China competition is here to stay and they’re trying to do their best to navigate it and have agency of their own.”
Women are often overlooked and underappreciated in peace processes. But USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg says the inaugural Women Building Peace Award will shine a light on women who have “dedicated their lives to doing the kind of work that reduces conflict and resolves violence, often in some of the toughest countries around the world.”
After decades of conflict, Afghanistan is closer to a political settlement than ever before. But with new reports of Russian bounties on U.S. soldiers, USIP’s Andrew Wilder says there’s concern the issue “distracts from the bigger-picture need for the U.S. to continue to support the peace process.”
After a four-month offensive by the western U.N.-backed government, the Libyan conflict has fallen back into a stalemate. USIP’s Thomas Hill says the question now is whether the new stalemate “will lead to a political solution or is just another step in the road … until one side controls all of the oil wealth.”
The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is reaching proportions not seen in Latin America since the 1930s. Meanwhile, USIP’s Keith Mines says the country is at a “tragic impasse, and that impasse is entirely political,” as both Juan Guaidó and Nicolás Maduro maintain their respective claims to power.
As the United States and Iraq engage in important talks this month, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says the focus should be “Iraq-centric policy,” even as Baghdad “is under a lot of pressure from Iran and its allies … to use the dialogue to put pressure on the United States to withdraw its troops and limit U.S. influence.”
Lebanon’s leaders have lacked a cohesive strategy to respond to COVID-19, exacerbating tensions that sparked mass protests last fall. But while the government struggles, and Hezbollah’s influence weakens, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says, “Unfortunately, the protest movement is as fragmented as the government.”
In recent weeks, Chinese and Indian soldiers have been fighting on their long-disputed border. USIP’s Vikram Singh says these skirmishes are not new—but that the latest hostilities echo China’s aggression in other parts of the region, saying, “It seems like China is flexing its muscle in every direction.”
After Beijing passed a new law curtailing freedom in Hong Kong, protests have again erupted in the territory. USIP’s Jacob Stokes says Hong Kong’s democracy poses a threat to Beijing’s legitimacy, and that if China “can’t produce enough economic growth … then that threat … becomes much more acute.”
A political deal to resolve the disputed 2019 presidential election was finally reached over the weekend. USIP’s Scott Worden says the agreement “is quite significant” because it will give the Afghan side “more political coherence to negotiate with the Taliban and, if implemented, it will show the Taliban they can’t divide Afghans.”
With coronavirus spreading in the Red Sea region, USIP’s Patricia Kim says Red Sea states don’t want to be forced to choose between major powers. “When things like the COVID-19 pandemic peak in fragile places,” says Kim, “this definitely requires cooperation between the United States and China.”
A “mixed” response from the international community is threatening a worst-case scenario for fragile states facing COVID-19. USIP’s Tyler Beckelman says countries need to recognize “the best strategy for defeating the virus is defeating it everywhere” and cooperate on aid in fragile contexts.
Coronavirus has led to a 70 percent decline in public protests worldwide compared to last year—but this doesn’t mean social movements are going away. “There are literally hundreds of other tactics … to express dissent while still following social distancing guidelines,” says USIP’s Jonathan Pinckney.
While USIP’s Susan Hayward acknowledges that religion has, at times, hampered public health, she notes religion has also been invoked “in ways that have brought meaning, that have mobilized people to respond to the needs of the vulnerable.”
Despite reporting no confirmed cases, USIP’s Frank Aum says, “It’s safe to say the virus is in North Korea,” and that the isolated nation is still trying to “maintain the visage of invulnerability” through missile tests and other military demonstrations—all while instituting drastic public health measures.
After three elections, Israel’s political crisis is reportedly coming to an end. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen explains that the focus has now shifted to the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying, “What you do often see in the face of these immediate crises is a lot of banding together and cooperation … the question is how long it holds afterwards.”
After the U.S. indictment of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, USIP’s Steve Hege looks at how the political crisis in Venezuela endangers vulnerable populations as well as neighboring Colombia amid the coronavirus pandemic.
As COVID-19 cases appear in the Middle East and Africa, USIP’s Nancy Lindborg talks about opportunities for peace amid the humanitarian and security risks posed by an outbreak. “The hope is that everyone uses this opportunity to put down their arms and think differently about conflict,” says Lindborg.
As the coronavirus pandemic spreads in both countries, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed examines the obstacles facing Iraq’s newly appointed prime minister, as well as whether addressing the crisis might open the door for de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, saying, “I do hope that these unfortunate challenges still come with some opportunity.”
Idlib is the site of Syria’s largest displacement crisis since the conflict began nine years ago, with nearly one million displaced in the province. As the Assad regime continues to reclaim Idlib, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at the future for Syria, saying “the fact of the matter is that Syrians are terrified to live under Assad’s rule.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Transcript
(Audio Recording)
Tim Farley: President Obama is no longer president, Hillary Clinton, no longer the Secretary of State. Jay Carney is no longer the White House Press Secretary, James Clapper, no longer the Director of National Intelligence, but Bashar al-Assad is still in charge in Syria and now things are even more complicated than they were in 2011, which was nine years ago this week, marking the anniversary of the conflict, which began as part of the Arab Spring and Russia and Turkey are intimately involved. There's a refugee issue. There's obviously the military issue and so many other things that we need to be concerned about, so to make sense of it all. Mona Yacoubian is with us, senior policy scholar for the U.S. Institute of Peace tweeting @myacoubian and Mona, welcome back. Thank you for being here today.
Mona Yacoubian: Thanks so much for having me.
Tim Farley: Mona, it seems that Assad's days are still numbered, but the question is how, how big that number is and the latest obviously, is seemingly, is a much more escalated tension between Russia and Turkey over portions of Syria. Give us your sense of where things are on the ground right now.
Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think what we're seeing is most recently a very brutal offensive undertaken by the Assad regime, but backed by Russia, in the air and this really marks the last rebel stronghold in Western Syria that Assad is attempting to retake. He is vowed to retake every square mile of his country back. And what this has done though is prompted massive displacement, the largest displacement crisis since the conflict began. Now, as you note nine years ago, and that has then brought Turkey involved because Turkey borders Syria at this governate of Idlib and Turkey hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees. They cannot afford to admit any more refugees. So, you now have a situation of what had been a fairly brutal offensive by the regime, the Assad regime, that then ended up raising tensions fairly significantly between Russia and Turkey.
Tim Farley: Can you help us understand better the support of Russia? I mean, you have to wonder what keeps Assad in power and we say, well, Russia supports, how do they support and what does that support mean in terms of being able to keep Bashar al-Assad in power?
Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think Russian support has been essential for Assad to stay in power. There was the notion early in the conflict that Assad's days were numbered. But as you have noted, here we are nine years later, he's still in power and that's due in large part to Russia support. The Russians became involved in Syria in 2015 and they really turned the tide of the war in favor of Assad. They brought in fairly massive military power, air power. And that's really been critical in terms of Assad not only holding onto power, but actually regaining large portions of territory.
Tim Farley: And why is it in Russia's interest to help Syria?
Mona Yacoubian: Well, the Russians have been very clear that they are opposed to the notion of any sort of regime change. They, they were opposed to what happened in Libya. The sort of the, the no-fly zone that was established by the U.N. Security Council, which eventually it was done to protect civilians, but eventually led to Gaddafi falling from power. And when that happened, when that happened, the Russians said never again. We're not going to stand by and watch regimes fall. Of course, they're concerned about their own regime and their own hold on power. And so, this has made Russia a staunch supporter of Bashar al-Assad.
Tim Farley: Once again, Mona Yacoubian with us, senior policy scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace. So now we have Russia and Turkey in some ways at odds, although it is seemingly calmed down a bit, but still the complication there is Turkey is a member of the NATO Alliance. And as a member of the Alliance, one would think the U.S. would be obligated in some way to support Turkey if it got into a physical, a military conflict with Russia. I'm not sure what the qualifications are for that, but talk about that aspect of this, this entire complex situation that is the relationship between Turkey and Russia right now.
Mona Yacoubian: Right. So, Turkey and Russia had figured out a way to, to negotiate what was called the de-escalation zone in Idlib to ensure against any fighting taking place there, that de-escalation agreement was violated starting really last spring, but it much more rigorously in December and up until now. And as I said, Turkey has, its interests are in insuring against any more Syrian refugees coming into, into Turkey. So, the situation militarily got quite heated . It resulted though in Russia and Turkey agreeing to a ceasefire last week, but I think this is likely to be a temporary measure. There's really no, this, this ceasefire does not appear to have a long-term solution. It's not clear at all what's going to happen to the nearly 1 million people have been displaced inside Idlib. They have nowhere to go. And so, I think this is a situation that that bears close watching. We could, we could easily see the ceasefire violated. There's a history of ceasefires being violated in Syria and we may see once again a rise in tensions between Russia and Turkey.
Tim Farley: Mona, the United States, under President Obama. There was the infamous red line incident. He thought that there would be certain conditions under which that would be crossing a line for him that was one that he couldn't accept, which included Assad firing on his own people, but that went by the wayside because Congress didn't move and President said, I'm going to let it leave it up to them to come up with an authorization for the use of military force. President Trump had sent some missiles flying into, into Syria at one point, but it seemingly has backed off. Is there an appropriate action for the U.S. to take is a wait and see? Is that pretty much where we are right now?
Mona Yacoubian: Well, unfortunately, I think the U.S. right now has very limited leverage in Syria. As you know, uh, if anything, we have been progressively drawing down our presence in eastern Syria. There's really no appetite for any sort of U.S. military intervention in Syria. We have provided additional humanitarian assistance. The U.S. is one of the largest donors, we've provided about $10 billion in humanitarian assistance since the beginning of the war. But unfortunately, Tim, I don't think there's much more the U.S. can do, other than perhaps some diplomatic support. They're putting sanctions on the Assad regime. But these are all sort of long-term measures. I don't, I don't see much in terms of the short-term that the U.S. can do to help alleviate the tensions and the fighting that has been taking place in Idlib.
Tim Farley: Mona. Last question, and this has to do, I mean, obviously we talk about the nation states that are taking part in this, this whole thing, which is Syria, Russia, Turkey, the United States. But the people, I mean, the refugee problem is, is clearly staggering. In addition to that, one wonders, who is it that Assad is ruling over now? I mean, are these people just cowed by him? Are they loyal to him? Are they, they've got to be hoping for better days?
Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think you've, you've really put your finger on probably one of the most tragic aspects of the Syrian conflict, which is exactly that Syrian civilians who have suffered enormously. I mean, Syria’s war has really been a humanitarian tragedy. Children in particular have suffered disproportionately. And the fact of the matter is that Syrians are terrified, who live under Assad's rule. And, you, you, it's very unlikely that we will see, for example, refugees return to Syria as long as Assad is in control. Um, his, his brutality, his lack of, of observation, of any sort of, of human rights really suggests that unfortunately, at least for the short-to-medium term, I think we're going to see people, Syrians living under, again, these sort of horrific conditions. No real relief in sight.
Tim Farley: On that sober note, we will wrap it up. Mona Yacoubian, thank you as always.
Mona Yacoubian: Thank you so much for having me.
Tim Farley: That is Mona Yacoubian, senior policy scholar for the United States Institute of Peace. Days are numbered for Bashar al-Assad, but the number keeps growing. It keeps increasing, and of course we have a complication with Russia and Syria and the role of the U.S. on what is taking place in that country. Mona, by the way, is tweeting @myacoubian.
Since 2001, Afghan women have assumed larger roles in society—becoming teachers, doctors and government officials. With intra-Afghan talks expected to begin this month, USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi says it’s important the Taliban “accept the reality that today’s Afghanistan is very different from the country they ruled” when it comes to women’s rights.
The visit did not yield a bilateral trade agreement, as many hoped it would. But USIP’s Vikram Singh says that despite the trade impasse, the trip did deliver defense and energy deals and reinforced “the symbolism of this partnership continuing to grow basically as it has for the entire 21st century.”
Amid news of an interim U.S.-Taliban deal, Afghanistan’s election commission announced President Ashraf Ghani has won reelection—a result his opponent has openly rejected. USIP’s Scott Worden warns this kind of political infighting weakens the government’s negotiating position ahead of possible intra-Afghan talks, saying “the Taliban profit from political chaos.”
As Arab Gulf states and Turkey ramp up their competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, USIP’s Payton Knopf says the increased attention “has tended to exacerbate some of the internal tensions and political insecurities” in Ethiopia and Sudan—two states undergoing democratic transitions vital for regional stability.
After direct military confrontations between the Assad regime and Turkey in Syria’s Idlib province, USIP’s Dr. Elie Abouaoun explains how the Turkish and Russian governments are trying to contain the fallout, saying “I do not think any party has an interest right now in provoking a full-blown escalation.”
Discussing the Trump administration’s long-awaited peace plan, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says that although the proposal nods toward a two-state solution, the details leave one “hard pressed to see how it serves as a formula or basis for bringing both parties back to the table.”
At the Berlin Conference last weekend, participants reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” to halt the influx of arms from international actors into Libya’s conflict. USIP’s Thomas Hill says that while “there’s probably something for both pessimists and optimists,” the lack of any formal agreement means the results are “tenuous at best.”
USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains how U.S.-Iran tensions could exacerbate state fragility and hamper longstanding peacebuilding efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying, “All of this can be put at risk with the current tensions as both countries really fear becoming collateral damage.”
Iran has stated that—barring a U.S. response—the missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq will be the only immediate retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says this latest development offers an exit from further escalation, but “this doesn’t mean the broader tensions and the slower, more simmering tensions … will end.”
Following the attempted siege of the American Embassy in Iraq, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says the U.S. must increase its presence in Iraq because it “doesn’t have the choice but to increase its investment … so that the expansion of Iranian influence is basically contained.”
This year has seen an extraordinary rise in people power. Despite significant coverage of these movements, many misconceptions about how they work persist. USIP’s Maria J. Stephan addresses those myths and says, “The most defining variable of successful nonviolent movements is large, diverse and sustained participation.”
With North Korea’s self-imposed, year-end deadline for a nuclear deal looming, USIP’s Frank Aum says that while complete denuclearization isn’t likely in the near term, “all of the components of a good-enough interim nuclear deal are there, but both sides need to be flexible on some of the harder issues.”
In Colombia, protesters are demanding that President Ivan Duque address concerns over economic inequality, corruption, the Venezuela crisis and implementation of the 2016 FARC peace accord in what USIP’s Steve Hege calls the country’s “largest mass mobilization in four decades.”
Returning from the Halifax International Security Forum, USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains why the growing number of “people power” movements around the world have left her optimistic, saying “the notion of what constitutes national security continues to evolve… security includes governments that are responsive to the needs of their people.”
As Israel appears headed for another election, the U.S. has reversed its long-standing position on the legality of Israeli settlements. The decision, according to USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, “comes after a long stream of events that’s made the possibility of bringing the parties back to the table extremely hard to imagine.”
The Afghan government and Taliban announced an agreement on a prisoner exchange this week, but it remains unclear what comes next. With the presidential election still undecided, “The question is, if this is the beginning of a new peace strategy on the part of President Ghani, will he be the president a few months from now to carry that strategy forward?” asks USIP’s Scott Smith.
Factional violence and civil war have prevented Libya from transitioning to a secure, democratic government in the eight years since Qaddafi’s fall. But USIP’s Nate Wilson says the path to peace still exists, and that “these kinds of generational revolutions take more time than that to play out.”
Several major developments have rattled the region in recent weeks, including Iraq’s ongoing protests, the U.S. withdrawal from Syria and the death of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says his death is a major blow to the terrorist group, but “the fact remains that … the enabling environment that gave rise to ISIS” is still present.
In the aftermath of U.S. troop withdrawal from northeast Syria, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says “we’re seeing Russia come in and fill the vacuum,” which will have “long-term strategic implications” for stemming a possible reemergence of ISIS as well as U.S. influence in the region.
Last week, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic engagement with neighboring Eritrea and initiating a host of domestic reforms. USIP’s Susan Stigant explains how the award shines a light on his accomplishments and “sets an expectation that he will continue to provide that leadership going forward.”
The crisis in Venezuela and increasing tensions between the Colombian government and the Maduro regime threaten the security of the region and Colombia’s 2016 FARC peace accord. USIP’s Steve Hege discusses recent obstacles to implementation of that accord and how the U.S. can support a democratic transition in Venezuela.
Last week, Tunisians voted for “a wholesale dismissal of everyone who’s governed before” in the first round of presidential elections, said USIP’s Leo Siebert. And with parliamentary and runoff elections upcoming, a string of free and fair elections could help Tunisia “prove to the world, and be a model to its neighbors, that democracy is possible.”
Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Jill Welch talks about how the Institute’s annual Peace Day Challenge gives people around the world “the opportunity to take an action, however big or small, to make peace possible together.”
Eighteen years after 9/11, USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg reflects on the continued spread of violent extremism and points to the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States as a blueprint for a new, preventive approach, saying, “I think we’ve all realized this is not a problem we can bomb our way out of.”
Iraqi leaders are concerned that efforts to improve governance and build durable institutions are being overwhelmed by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the potential of a proxy war in the country. “This pressure has definitely undermined the Iraqi government,” says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed.
A peace agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is rumored to be imminent. But USIP’s Scott Worden says any deal would only be “the first step, the tip of the iceberg” for lasting peace in Afghanistan, as the conflict stems from political issues “that have been going on for about 40 years.”
Once U.S.-South Korean joint exercises conclude next week, USIP’s Frank Aum believes working-level negotiations with North Korea will resume. Despite the lack of progress over the last year, Aum says, “We need to be able to resolve [issues] within the framework of a deal rather than scrapping the deal altogether.”
Amid the escalating Hong Kong crisis, USIP’s Jacob Stokes says China’s history of breaking deals has created a basic credibility problem that “relates to Hong Kong, it relates to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, on hacking and cyber theft, and on certain parts of the World Trade Organization.”
The death of President Essebsi was a major loss for Tunisia, but the U.S. remains deeply invested in advancing democracy in the country. Alternatively, looking to the instability in Libya, Hill says, “The U.S. is not involved at all, [even though some] Libyans are pressing for the U.S. to do more … The most productive way the U.S. can be involved is not militarily or financially, but rather diplomatically.”
While some will face criminal trial, many of those who traveled to live with ISIS but have disavowed its ideology will have to reintegrate into their communities. “We need to encourage a way to talk about them so that they can form new bonds with their communities,” says Leanne Erdberg. “Language has a very important role to play.”
Following Khan’s visit with President Trump, Moeed Yusuf says that the two leaders appear to have a chemistry that could improve U.S.-Pakistan relations. Although the two countries have been at odds over the Afghan conflict, Yusuf says Trump and Khan indicated they would “work together to find ways to break the impasse on Afghanistan.”
Young people are hungry for examples of people working for peace in some of the world’s most violent conflicts, and they are curious about ways they too can make a positive difference. Megan Chabalowski explains how USIP’s Peace Teachers Program provides educators with the in-depth training and resources needed to incorporate peacebuilding into their classrooms and communities.
Following unprecedented talks between Taliban and Afghan leaders this week, which have provided renewed hope for peace, the Taliban claimed credit for an attack in Ghanzi province. Scott Smith says Afghanistan is now exhibiting “one of the usual paradoxes of this stage of a peace process... where both parties, as they begin to talk more, they begin to fight more.”
Scott Smith is an advisor on Afghanistan at the U.S. Institute of Peace.
At a recent USIP event, Nobel laureate Nadia Murad discussed her efforts to end sexual violence and human trafficking—two criminal practices that Kathleen Kuehnast says “have been institutionalized and militarized.” To disincentivize these human rights abuses, Kuehnast says we must reinforce that these heinous but often lucrative practices are “not a livelihood—this is criminality.”
A year after the first summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, “both sides are very much committed to diplomacy and trying to reach an agreement,” says Frank Aum. Despite the stalled talks, Aum says that Chinese President Xi’s visit to North Korea will likely encourage Kim to continue along the path of diplomacy.
Massive unrest has hit Hong Kong, as citizens protest an extradition law they believe is favorable to China. Vikram Singh says protesters fear that Beijing is working to undermine Hong Kong’s longstanding judicial independence. Looking at India and Pakistan, Singh says that the chances for meaningful dialogue right now are small, as both countries focus on their own issues.
Under the Trump administration, the U.S. has made protecting sovereignty a core principle of its foreign policy and U.S.-China relations. While Beijing prioritizes protecting sovereignty at home, “its actions abroad raise questions about whether it’s interested in protecting the sovereignty of other countries,” says USIP’s Jacob Stokes.
In the last two months, dictators in Sudan and Algeria were forced to step down because of popular pressure, demonstrating the power of nonviolent resistance to movements in places like Nicaragua and Venezuela. “When large numbers of people engage in various forms of noncooperation … that is where the real power of nonviolent resistance comes from,” says Maria Stephan.
What’s at stake in Sudan as tense negotiations between the Transitional Military Council and protesters are at a stalemate? “We need to see a swift transition to civilian-led rule,” says Payton Knopf. “Otherwise I’m afraid what will result is increased instability … or potentially a catastrophic failure of the state.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Reflecting on recent conversations in Doha and Kabul, USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi says that Afghans told her they want peace, but are not willing to sacrifice the hard-won gains of the last 18 years to get there. As U.S.-Taliban talks move forward, the extent of the Taliban’s evolution on issues like women’s rights remains in question. “I’ll believe it when I see it,” says Ahmadi.
Nearly 20 years after 9/11, determining the profile of someone who is going to join a terrorist group remains a deeply challenging effort. For too long we have looked at simple explanations—like poverty or lack of education—for why people join violent movements. Erdberg discusses a new project to investigate the psychology and neuroscience that motivates people to resort to extremism.
From Algeria to Libya and beyond, North Africa has been roiled by unrest in recent months. USIP’s Thomas Hill says at its core this turmoil is the result of “governments having not performed to the degree that they [the people] want or need them to” and discusses how it impacts U.S. interests.
Following his election observation, Taylor discusses Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s victory and how he can build support at home and abroad. “The president-elect is already getting a lot of support from the international community,” and if he implements the pro-Western policies he advocated during the campaign the U.S. will continue to strengthen bilateral ties, says Taylor.
The overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir could have important implications for Sudan and the broader region, says Susan Stigant. “What we see in Sudan at the moment isn’t just about what’s happening in the country … it could also have far reaching ramifications in the region in other locations like Libya that are priorities for the United States.”
Following her trip to Iraq, Nancy Lindborg discusses the country’s efforts to rebuild after ISIS. “They’ve [ISIS] been deprived of their territory …. rebuilding is under way. But, there is very much a sense that the ISIS ideology is alive and well and there are a lot of concerns overall about security,” says Lindborg. “There has been important progress, but it’s very precarious and completely reversible.”
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Reflecting on the 40th anniversary of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says, “One of the big factors with the Egypt-Israel agreement was … bold, courageous leadership that was willing to make unprecedented moves … That’s of course eventually what’s going to need to happen to come to an agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians.”
USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says, “Iraq is at its best state in the last five years. The country is recovering from an existential fight with ISIS … and the Kurds are now back in Iraq’s politics and more involved.” Yet, many Iraqis remain disenchanted with the country’s political leaders and are skeptical of the government’s ability to deliver services, security, and jobs.
On the five-year anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Amb. Taylor—a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine—explains why it has been so difficult for Ukraine and its allies to oust Russia from the Ukrainian territory. “Sadly … the people of Crimea are worse off than they were five years ago,” while the West continues to struggle with how to respond to Moscow’s territorial grab.
Patricia Kim analyzes the failure of the Hanoi Summit. “China should lean in,” says Kim discussing the spectrum of tools Beijing has available from diplomacy to unilateral sanctions. In future negotiations, the U.S. should focus on “hammering out a clearly defined and time bound roadmap that ends with the de-nuclearization of North Korea.”
Last week, tensions between India and Pakistan—sparked by a suicide attack claimed by a Pakistan-based terrorist group—put the world on notice. “The United States has reached a point where it believes that the militants operating out of Pakistan are … a threat, not just to India and to Afghanistan and our forces in Afghanistan, but … a threat to the long-term stability of the Pakistani state,” says Richard Olson, a former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan.
Following the release of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States’ final report, Nancy Lindborg explains why a new prevention paradigm is needed to address the root causes of extremism in fragile states. “We are in a moment of convergence and shared desire to figure out how to do these tough tasks differently,” says Lindborg.
Last week’s U.S.-led Warsaw Conference brought together more than 60 countries to discuss peace and security challenges in the Middle East. The conference underscored U.S.-European tensions over Iran and the growing rapprochement between Israel and Arab states, and led many to believe the Trump administration will soon be releasing its Middle East peace plan, says Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.
As Africa’s most populous country with its biggest economy, Nigeria is a bellwether for the continent. On Saturday, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their next president and members of the National Assembly. This critical election will be a test of the resilience of Nigeria’s democratic institutions and widely watched by the international community, says USIP’s Oge Onubogu.
“I think President Trump has really unlocked the possibility for the peace process by putting our troops on the table, as long as we just don’t withdraw them unilaterally,” says Andrew Wilder. Following President Trump’s clarification of the administration’s strategy during the State of the Union, Wilder shares his analysis of the ongoing Afghan peace process.
Eight years of conflict has decimated Syria’s infrastructure and shredded the social fabric. But, intelligence officials expect ISIS to be “fully ejected” from Syrian territory in the next two to four weeks. Mona Yacoubian argues that a precipitous U.S. withdrawal could lead to an ISIS resurgence and examines the complex regional situation.
Highlighted by the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize award to Dr. Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad—advocates for survivors of wartime sexual violence—the issue of sexual abuse has gained international recognition. USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast attended the ceremony, saying, “People were standing in solidarity to what they were hearing. We can no longer be indifferent about this type of criminal activity.”
Live from Baghdad as Iraqis celebrate the one-year anniversary of the fall of ISIS, Elie Abouaoun says that there is a sense of relief in the country over the terrorist group’s defeat and that elections happened this year. To maintain this positive momentum, adds Abouaoun, Iraq’s infrastructure must be rebuilt, and measures should be taken to reinforce social cohesion at the local level.
A former assistant secretary of state for Africa, Amb. Crocker was appointed to USIP’s Board of Directors by President Bush. Reflecting on the late president’s legacy, Crocker said, “George H.W. Bush understood we had many audiences in our foreign policy and that we have to talk to all of them, be understood by all of the them and be able to put everything into a kind of overall balance.”
“There’s no doubt in my mind that President Vladimir Putin knew what was going on and had given the general guidance,” says William B. Taylor, regarding Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian ships in a vital maritime trade route for Ukraine. The United States and Europe must jointly apply additional economic sanctions and provide military assistance to Ukraine to pressure Russia to cease its aggressive actions.
Ten years ago this week, 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba—a Pakistan-based terrorist organization—carried out a series of coordinated attacks in Mumbai. Moeed Yusuf explains how the attacks derailed the most promising peace process India and Pakistan had ever managed and how U.S. mediation was critical to averting war in South Asia in the aftermath of “India’s 9/11.”
As Afghans wait for official results from the parliamentary polls, Johnny Walsh says that the country is already entering “high political season” in preparation for the critical April 2019 presidential election. Although the Taliban continues to carry out high-profile attacks across the country, Walsh says that many Afghans are focused on the presidential polls and its implications for the peace process.
Since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, successive U.S. administrations have watched Libya’s continuing collapse, mistakenly believing that the country’s unraveling threatens only Europe, says Thomas Hill. Ahead of the Palermo conference, which aims to find a solution to the crisis in Libya, Hill says that United States’ should play a more direct role in stabilizing the country.
“In its fifth year, Russia's armed aggression in Ukraine's Donbas region has become a costly burden with little strategic benefit,” says Charles North. One possible exit ramp has emerged from recent negotiations: a U.N.-mandated peacekeeping operation to facilitate a peace process resulting in Russia’s departure from Donbas and the return of control to Ukraine.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Transcript
Tim Farley: It's been a while since we addressed this issue. It's a good time to get an update on Ukraine and Russia. Recently, our guest has written about Russia's roadmap to exiting Ukraine. When Russia realizes its approach in Ukraine has failed, here's how it can get out. Let's let him flesh it out for us. Charles North is Senior Advisor on Ukraine at the United States Institute of Peace, a former director in Russia, of the U.S. Agency for International Development, USAID, and the Twitter handle is @USIP. Charles North, welcome. Thank you for being here.
Charles North: Thanks very much, Tim. It's a pleasure to be with you.
Tim Farley: Let's talk about Russia and how far, really, are they into Ukraine, right now?
Charles North: There are two places where Russia has seized territory in Ukraine. First, is the whole Crimea Peninsula. That, they've basically annexed. The other part is in eastern Ukraine, an area called the Donbas. They are holding a territory roughly the equivalent to the size of New Jersey. They have installed their own puppet authorities in two parts of that territory.
Tim Farley: And the idea behind their incursion into Ukraine? Economic? Nationalistic? Imperialistic? How would you characterize the movement into Ukraine? Just to get more territory or do they need more territory?
Charles North: I think it's less a function of territory than an effort to destabilize the Ukrainian government. These invasions took place around the time that Ukraine was moving seriously towards looking for a closer relationship with the EU. This was something that Russia couldn't bear, so this was a way of changing that dynamic by destabilizing the country, putting it on a war footing, and moving the question from joining the EU to having to fight this war on the side with Russia. Also, an attempt to galvanize, perhaps, pro-Russian Ukrainians into saying, “Yes, we want to move back to Russia.”
This is what they've tried to do there. It actually has historical context of using borderlands around Russia as a buffer zone against foreign incursions or just keeping enemies at bay. The interest in keeping NATO just a bit farther away. So if Ukraine went the side of EU, the potential for also joining NATO would be there, as well.
Tim Farley: Is it still the case that Ukraine is dependent on the West for energy, and to the East on Russia for other support, or has that changed over the last couple years?
Charles North: Well, Ukraine is still very dependent on the outside for all their resources. You still have energy flowing to the pipelines through Ukraine. This is one reason why they're concerned about alternate pipelines, so they are still very dependent on other outside donors. But we have seen some improvement, here and there, in the economic performance.
Tim Farley: I wonder ... Again, Charles North, with the Senior Advisor on Ukraine at the United States Institute of Peace. Your op-ed that appeared in The Moscow Times noted that we cannot know when, or if, Russia will reconsider its failed approach. It would be a failure of smart policy making not to have an exit ramp designed and paved for ready use. In other words, you're saying, let's come up with an idea, so that the Russians, if they finally come to the realization that what they're doing is not working, we can say, “Hey, try this, it will work fine.” Any indication that Russia is going to listen? Any indication that they are even contemplating taking steps? What's your sense of things?
Charles North: Well, I think there's some incentives for the Russians to get out. One, the calculation that their incursion into eastern Ukraine was going to destabilize Ukraine, it just has not paid out. The Ukrainians are actually more united now than they were before the war. They're actually more united against Russia and more towards Europe. So that hasn't worked out for them. The Russians have also incurred the sanctions from the West. This is biting. It's effecting the Russian government's ability to pay salaries, and to keep their projects going, the non-military programs. Then we've also seen them increasing the retirement age, which has led to significant protests and a significant drop in President Putin's popularity.
But beyond that, we've also even seen analysis by Russian think tanks on the possibility of a peacekeeping force, as much as, like I had described in my op-ed that would help with the transition from Russian to Ukrainian control of the territory in eastern Ukraine. We have seen some of these glimmers. It's hard to say that this is a ... it's going to happen for sure. Even a year ago, President Putin was saying he was not opposed to the idea of having peacekeepers, but whether that is something he's committed to, or if he was just trying to keep the conversation going a bit longer before having to make a commitment.
There's uncertainty about whether they would actually go forward, but it's something we need to be prepared for.
Tim Farley: You mentioned President Putin, and I wondered, does this change or effect, in any way, the dynamic of a scheduled or, at least, contemplated early 2019 visit of Vladimir Putin to the White House? Would this be on the table? Would this be something that may be in the works before then? Give us a sense of how that might play out, and the role the U.S. might play in this.
Charles North: I don't see any agreement happening on ... At least, no public agreement, on a peacekeeping force before the Ukrainian elections in March 2019. Would it be on the table for a conversation if President Putin came to Washington? I would expect so. It would, certainly, be on the table for conversation, but whether they would get very far with it, I don't know. It all depends on whether that happens.
Tim Farley: Is that the level it should take place at?
Charles North: Sorry, again?
Tim Farley: Is that a good level to have those conversations or should that be left to subordinates?
Charles North: Well, I think the only person that makes any sound decisions in Russia is President Putin, so it's important to have it at that level. I think there's a lot to be done to prepare for that, but it definitely needs to be had at that level.
Tim Farley: People can read the op-ed in The Moscow Times, "Russia's Roadmap to Exiting Ukraine." Charles North joining us on POTUS. Charles, thank you so much.
Charles North: Thank you very much, Tim.
Tim Farley: Charles North, Senior Advisor on Ukraine to the United States, at the United States Institute of Peace. He's a former director in Russia for USAID, the U.S. Agency for International Development. Joining us here to talk a little bit about what I just said, that op-ed about the exit from Ukraine for Russia. Twitter handle is @USIP.
With trillions in goods moving through the South China Sea annually, it’s arguably the most important shipping lane on the planet, says Vikram Singh. While China says that it wants to keep the sea free and open for trade, most worryingly for the United States, Beijing has claimed it can deny access to military vessels, challenging the U.S.’ ability to maintain a balance of power in the region.
Just back from Kabul, Scott Worden shares his analysis about the mood on-the-ground with the long overdue parliamentary elections set to take place this weekend. Taliban interference, fraud and voter turnout will greatly impact the election’s legitimacy, which will foreshadow what to expect for the 2019 presidential election.
Mona Yacoubian discusses the state of play in Syria ahead of important withdrawal deadlines this week for removing heavy weapons from Idlib province. Yacoubian also discusses the waves of migration forced by the crisis, noting that 2018 has been the worst year to date for internally displaced Syrians; and the recent news that U.S. special operations forces are likely to remain in the country indefinitely to prevent a possible re-emergence of ISIS.
Jonas Claes provides risk analysis for elections taking place in the Democratic Republic of Congo in December and in Ukraine in March, 2019. A combination of complicating factors ranging from ongoing conflicts, outside meddling, logistical hurdles and voter apathy top Claes’ concerns that election violence could be stoked in both elections.
Philippe Leroux-Martin explains Russia’s intentions for interfering in both Macedonia and Kosovo to thwart possible NATO expansion and EU membership, and Western efforts to counter the Russian moves. Macedonians head to the polls on September 30 to vote in a referendum to change the country’s name to North Macedonia to resolve a long-running disagreement with Greece, which could ease the way to joining the Western blocs. Meanwhile, Serbia and Kosovo are discussing a land swap that could result in redrawing borders that citizens fear will result in violence in an already volatile region.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
With the diplomatic process between the U.S. and North Korea at a stalemate, Ambassador Joseph Yun discusses the key takeaways from this week’s inter-Korean summit and the improvement in North-South relations. For Washington and Pyongyang to move forward, Yun says the two sides need to first agree on a definition of, and process for, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Seventeen years after the 9/11 attacks, Nancy Lindborg details the findings of an interim report from the congressionally mandated Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States. Convened by USIP, the Task Force will devise a comprehensive new strategy for addressing the underlying causes of extremism in fragile states, says Lindborg, a member of the Task Force.
Four months after Iraq held elections, a new government has yet to form as the majority Shia factions remain divided. Sarhang Hamasaeed discusses the complicated route to forming a government and the recent unrest in Basra aimed at the current government for its failure to provide electricity and other basic services.
Since the Singapore Summit, Washington and Pyongyang have been mired in a stalemate over the sequencing of an end of war declaration and North Korea’s disarmament. Yet, even after the cancellation of Secretary Pompeo’s visit, USIP’s Frank Aum says talks will likely continue, as both sides are invested in a successful outcome.
Despite the Taliban’s failure to accept the Kabul government’s offer of another cease-fire this week, Johnny Walsh says that a political solution to the Afghanistan war is the best alternative to the current military stalemate. Even absent a cease-fire, hope remains that the peace process can move forward in 2018.
Both the eastern and western shores of the Red Sea increasingly function as a common political and security arena in which the U.S. has significant interests, including the free flow of $700 billion in commerce and competition for influence from external powers like China and Iran. Addressing the region’s interlinked challenges requires a comprehensive U.S. strategy, says Payton Knopf.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
As the Assad regime consolidates power across Syria, Mona Yacoubian says that regime change is increasingly unlikely seven years into the civil war. But, the conflict remains complex, as the U.S. and coalition forces continue to work to eradicate remnants of ISIS and Israel becomes increasingly concerned over Iran’s military presence in neighboring Syria.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Episode Transcipt
Tim (Host): What is the state of affairs in Syria right now? The regime is marching to retake territory. There seems to be a shadow war between Israel and Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. Let's talk about all of these issues and more with Mona Yacoubian, who is a senior policy scholar at the United States Institute of Peace. The Twitter handle is @USIP. Mona, welcome back, thank you for being on POTUS today. Mona: Thank you so much for having me. Tim (Host): Every time we talk about Syria, I keep thinking his days are numbered, President Assad, but he is still there. And one wonders exactly what the state of the battle is right now. Just an overview if you will for a moment, on what we are seeing taking place in Syria right now. Mona: Sure. Well Tim, I think Bashar al-Assad is very much set to prevail in Syria. I don't think he's going anywhere any time soon. In fact, as you said, what we're seeing is the regime really re-taking territory, consolidating control over much of the country. This really started in earnest back in late 2016, when the regime re-took parts of Aleppo that had been held by the rebels. Of course, with significant help from both Russia and Iran. And since that time, they have steadily been regaining territory, most recently now down in the south. Just last month they re-took the city of Daraa. This was the birthplace of the Syrian revolution. So we're really seeing a trend of the regime essentially re-consolidating its control. Tim (Host): The United States and Russia at one point, it had been characterized by the Russians as an alliance to fight against the Islamic State or ISIS, that does not seem to have been the case, it was more Russian working with Iran to do some other things right now. First of all, is the battle against ISIS, is that over with now or not, in Syria? Mona: It's certainly coming toward a close. In early May, the counter-ISIS coalition began something called Operation Roundup, and that's really designed to do just what it suggests, which is basically sweep out the last remaining remnants of ISIS in far eastern Syria and in Iraq. Tim (Host): Is the United States still committed to any particular course of action in Syria? I'm not quite clear what the policy is right now, other than the fact that the United States is committed to defeating ISIS. Mona: Well, I think that has been really the major focus of US policy in Syria, frankly going back to 2014. The main focus has been to defeat ISIS in Syria as well as in Iraq. Now what happens after that I think is a big question. President Trump has really expressed a desire to withdraw U.S. troops, there are a small number, 2000 on the ground in Syria. He's suggested that he'd like to withdraw those troops, and pull out of Syria. Mona: If that's the case, I think that will have a significant impact on the ground that may open the way frankly for ISIS to re-establish itself. It could also I think signal the Syrian regime, Russia and Iran, that the U.S. really has no interest in Syria, and essentially, yeah, and essentially sort of lay the groundwork for their taking over even those parts of Syria. Tim (Host): Mona Yacoubian with us, Senior Policy Scholar at the US Institute of Peace as we discuss Syria. Aziz Asbar was a research director at the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center. His assassination has not been acknowledged by Israel, but it does raise questions about a series of attacks and it does raise the question, the specter if you will of something called the shadow war. Maybe you could describe what your concerns about that are? Mona: I think what we're seeing is as the Assad regime has re-established control, it's done it as I said with the help of Russia and Iran. Israel has grown increasingly concerned, in particular about Iran's posture inside Syria. And the Israelis have said that under no circumstances will they tolerate a permanent Iranian military presence on the ground in Syria. So we've seen a steady uptick in these unattributed attacks, aimed largely at military facilities associated with the Syrian regime, Iran, or Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that is a strong ally of Iran on the ground. Tim (Host): And what is the role of Hezbollah in this also? Mona: Well, Hezbollah has played a very important role in the Syrian civil war in terms of bolstering the Assad regime. They started their involvement in Syria in 2012, largely in a covert way, and then in 2013, in a much more open fashion, they've been on the ground, providing a lot of sort of extending if you will, ground capabilities for the Syrians and bolstering Assad, ensuring that the regime does not collapse. Tim (Host): One of the stories today being reported by the Associated Press is about countries that are taking custody of foreign fighters who are detained in Syria, and it brought them home to face justice. Macedonia became the latest country to repatriate detainees captured on the battlefield by the U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces, taking seven Islamic State fighters on Monday. The numbers are just a fraction according to the Associated Press of the roughly 600 foreign fighters currently being detained by the SDF. What can you tell us about that? Mona: Well, I think that's exactly the point. It's an important, maybe small first step, but as you've noted, the number is just a fraction. I think this leads to a much bigger question of what to do with these captured ISIS fighters? The SDF, the Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces is not even a national entity, and many of the countries from which these fighters hail, are not interested in repatriating them and having these fighters return to face justice in their country. Mona: So it leaves open a very big question, what's going to happen to them? Will they become radicalized even further? Will they escape these detention camps? So it's a big I think, longer term issue that still needs to be resolved. Tim (Host): And there's another large issue, a looming issue, and that has to do with refugees. Where are they going? The Lebanese government, we know as you've reported, has said that it would not force refugees back, but would facilitate their return to Syria. Still there are countries that are bursting at the seams if you will from refugees from this battle. What to do about them is a problem that people are going to have to confront, and I'm wondering what is being done about this issue right now? Mona: I think we're starting to hear much more about this issue of refugee returns. And as you said, the Lebanese government has said they're not going to force Syrian refugees back, but Lebanon hosts the largest numbers of refugees per capita in the world and it seems fairly clear that those communities, their patience is running thin, and conditions for Syrian refugees in these hosting countries, in Lebanon for example, are very, very difficult. Mona: So many Syrian refugees are faced with this rather difficult set of choices, to stay in a place like Lebanon where they don't have work, where it's difficult for their children to be in school, or to return to Syria, which is far from secure, in which they face a very uncertain future, will they be jailed by the Assad regime, will they be conscripted if they're young men into the Syrian army? It's a very, very difficult set of choices, but we are starting to see a trickle of Syrian refugees returning to Syria. Tim (Host): Mona, is your belief that the United States should offer assistance financially or otherwise to these countries that have taken in these refugees, at the very least in the interest of maintaining some level of stability and comfort in other words, so people are not dying? Mona: Oh, I absolutely. And I think the U.S. for many years has played a leading role as the single largest humanitarian donor, in terms of providing aid and assistance to refugees living in Syria, sorry, living in Lebanon, in Jordan. Now the Trump administration has somewhat of a different focus. They are less interested in providing funding to the UN agency, UNHCR, that provides assistance for these refugees. But I think it's essential that both for the refugees and as well for the countries that are hosting them, which they are doing really at great cost. In many ways, it really is an international public good to host refugees amongst the host communities in Lebanon, in Jordan, in Turkey. Tim (Host): Mona, last question, kind of returning to where we started. It does appear now that regime change is not going to take place in Syria. Mona: Well, I think that's exactly right Tim. As I said, I think it's fairly clear that the Assad regime is set to prevail. I think a bigger question is what will that Syria over which he presides, what will it look like? I think it's going to be a very violent and fractured Syria for many, many years to come. Tim (Host): Mona Yacoubian, thank you for joining us on POTUS. Mona: Thanks so much for having me. Tim (Host): Mona is a Senior Policy Scholar at the U.S. Institute of Peace discussing the situation in Syria. For years we heard of Bashar al-Assad's days are numbered, they have been numbered, but they've numbered even more than the administration of President Barack Obama and who knows what it will like under President Donald Trump, according to what Mona is saying. Regime change not in the offing there. Still a situation the U.S. must deal with, some thoughts about what needs to be taken care of. The Twitter handle by the way is @USIP.
Following last week’s Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom at the U.S. Department of State, Rev. Susan Hayward discusses the worldwide uptick in religious discrimination in recent years—which particularly impacts minority communities—and how religion shapes conflict and peace around the world.
On Pakistan’s Election Day, Moeed Yusuf analyzes the significance of the country holding its third democratic election in a row amid a persistent power imbalance between the military and civilian spheres. Concerning U.S. interests, Yusuf says American engagement with Pakistan must go beyond Afghanistan issues, which Islamabad does not view as a top priority.
Following a recent trip to Libya, USIP President Nancy Lindborg discusses how Libya has become the epicenter for refugees from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia migrating to Europe. “Even though the overall rates of migration into Europe have decreased,” says Lindborg, “they will continue as long as smuggling in Libya remains such a big business.”
After completing an academic year as one of four USIP Peace Teachers, Ezra Shearer discusses his experience engaging, empowering, and challenging students on how to mitigate conflict. Building negotiation and communication skills, says Shearer, a teacher at Sentinel High School in Missoula, Montana, is a critical life skill for students.
Ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Putin meeting and the NATO summit in Europe later this month, Ambassador Taylor discusses the key issues that will be on the agenda at both, including Russian meddling in U.S. elections and Moscow’s aggressive actions in Europe as well as NATO members’ progress as it relates to U.S. concerns over burden-sharing.
Can South Sudan—the world’s youngest country—find peace? USIP’s Susan Stigant discusses the country’s political crisis and how its exacerbated by the outgrowth of opposition groups, millions of displaced citizens, and other complex challenges to restoring stability. Nevertheless, Stigant explains that peace is possible with U.S. leadership.
Following a peaceful run-off election in Colombia, Steve Hege shares his analysis on the victory of right-wing candidate Ivan Duque over leftist Gustavo Petro. At the top of Duque’s agenda, according to Hege, will be amending the peace accord with the FARC, resuming more aggressive drug eradication programs, increasing security and strengthening the U.S.-Colombia relationship.
A temporary cease-fire between the Afghan government and the Taliban to mark the end of Ramadan may offer an opportunity to pursue a more ambitious political solution to end the conflict in Afghanistan, says USIP’s Scott Worden. While there is a chance that the cease-fire—the first since the war began in 2001—will be fleeting, as cease-fires are fragile by nature, it is an important trust-building measure. Combined with Afghanistan’s neighbors recently expressing their desire for an end to the stalemate, the cease-fire could be the first step to a more enduring peace.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Just days out from the historic U.S. – North Korea Summit, Frank Aum reflects on pitfalls that previous administrations struggled with, and shares his thoughts about the Trump administration’s approach to North Korea.
Following the surprise win by controversial Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his Sairoon coalition in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections, a new coalition government has yet to form. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed analyzes what led to al-Sadr’s victory, low voter turnout at the polls, the state of the political process in Iraq, and Iraqis’ expectations for meaningful reform from the next government.
While Iran and North Korea dominate Western headlines, tensions between Pakistan and India—two nuclear states that have grown unpredictable—are at the highest levels in over a decade, threatening a potential catastrophic outcome, says Moeed Yusuf. He explains why India and Pakistan depend upon the United States, China, and other powers to work in concert to de-escalate the long running Kashmir conflict. However, the resurgence of great power competition has left Pakistan and India to solve the crisis on their own.
Our guests on today's episode are Diego Benitez, a program officer for USIP's Office of Learning, Evaluation and Research, and Lili Cole, an expert on reconciliation process and practice. We will be discussing a USIP project called IMPACT Colombia, which combines support for reconciliation projects in Colombia with USIP's own brand of monitoring and evaluation.
A confluence of factors this week led to heightened tensions in Israel and the Palestinian territories. Israel celebrated its 70th anniversary, the United States officially moved its embassy to Jerusalem, and protests in Gaza led to levels of violence not seen in several years. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen shares her analysis and discusses the perfect storm of events leading to the latest round of tumult between Israelis and Palestinians and explains why Middle East peace remains a generational goal.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Complete Transcript
Tim Farley (host): At a special counsel, or a special convening, of the UN Security Council yesterday, the subject ... main subject, really, was the violence on the border between Israel and Gaza. And yesterday the United States' Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, one of those obviously speaking because it's the Security Council, but she said that Iran-shaped, or Iran-inspired militants, have been at work in this region and it happened long before the administration's decision to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, attacking what she called a 'double standard' by the International community. Here she is yesterday. Nikki Haley: The United States welcomes the discussion of this violence in the Middle East. We welcome discussing the ways we can cooperate with each other to put an end to this violence. There is far too little discussion in the Security Council on Iran's destabilizing presence in Syria. Its promotion of violence in Yemen. Its support for terrorism in Gaza. And its dangerous and illegal weapons build-up in Lebanon. Tim Farley (host): All right, if we're gonna discuss violence in the region, let's talk about the full perspective of the moving of the embassy, and what it means. Joining us on POTUS is Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen who is director of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at the United States Institute of Peace. The Twitter handle is @USIP. Lucy, welcome, thank you for being here on POTUS again. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Thank you Tim, good morning. Tim Farley (host): This is not a surprise, we kinda knew this was coming. The President did it, it became formalized, and what exactly does this mean, just in broad brush strokes? Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Well, as you said, we did know this was coming. And in the embassy, if we start there, the groundwork was set for that back in December 6th when, as you remember, we discussed on this show, actually, when President Trump announced the U.S. was recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. And in doing that was breaking with US policy precedents and International consensus on this issue, which had basically withheld adjudication of the status of Jerusalem until that was decided in negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. So now we're in a situation, the embassy, that less than six months later was opened the other day, and what we know right now is certainly it has set back the ability to start moving forward on negotiations. As we know the Palestinians after that December 6th announcement have subsequently refused to deal with the United States mediator on this issue, saying that it has ruined its credibility to serve in an impartial and effective role.Tim Farley (host): All right, so was being held out as bargaining chip. What does this mean effective now, and what do you think was the cause of the violence? Was it Hamas to blame, that's what Israel was doing, what the U.S. is doing. Was it Hamas that was inciting the violence on the border? Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Right, well, so moving down to what was happening in Gaza, now this is a case of where you had a confluence of events that weren't entirely unrelated to each other, and certainly all relate to the dynamics in this ongoing conflict. But what was happening, what you saw on Monday in the border of Gaza, was a culmination of about six weeks of protests that were started on March 30th. Now, they were started ... they were ... actually, an initiative started at the grassroots level by unaffiliated, non-politically affiliated activists. But that protest movement was fairly quickly co-opted by Hamas. The idea of the march, it was called 'the great march of return', and the stated goals of it were to bring International attention to the humanitarian and economic situation in Gaza, the blockade on the Gaza strip that is implemented by both Israel and Egypt. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: But also, as the name suggests, the activist are saying it was also a call to return, to return to the land that Palestinians refugees lost in 1948. And they scheduled, or designed the protest, to build up over the course of six weeks so to culminate on May 15th, which is what the Palestinians commemorate usually as Nakba Day, the Catastrophe Day. Now, that culmination day was moved up to May 14th, which was the date that was chosen to open the Jerusalem embassy, because that marks the anniversary of the date 70 years ago when Israel was created. So, again, you have this confluence of events. We did know this was coming, Israelis knew it was coming, of course what happened you heard on Monday, 60 of the protestors, the Palestinians to the fence, killed. And that has launched a debate to as to whether this could have been handled in any other way. Tim Farley (host): Yeah. Because they were warned that there was gonna be a force of Israelis at the border, right? It was ... Again, I'm not trying to cause blame or point fingers at anybody, I'm just trying to figure out what happened here, and then ... It was not that there was this surprise that the Israelis had guns, that they were at the border there?Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: No, for sure. And Israel had been very clear about what would happen if activists approached the fence, and this gets back to the point of Hamas having co-opted the march. There were tens of thousands of Palestinians who were protesting, demonstrating over the course of these weeks. Those who approached the fence, Hamas was actually on the 14th urging people onto the fence. It was probably fairly clear what was going to happen. As Israel had made clear, they set a demarcation line of what would happen and that you'd be considered a threat if you were coming within ... initially it was 300 meters of the fence, that was moved then to 100 meters of the fence. And so yes, you had unfortunately a very sad, unpredictable situation play out. And this for Hamas, as well, of course, was a strategic move as well. It gives ... it draws attention to Hamas' cause and really gives Hamas a little bit of a credibility resistance boost, perhaps, among the Palestinians, at a time when it had been feeling a little bit on the ropes.Tim Farley (host): Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen with us, Director of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at the United States Institute of Peace. Lucy, I was thinking about this last couple of days, because several years ago I had interviewed Jennifer Griffin, she's a Pentagon correspondent for Fox, and she had written a book with her husband, 'This Burning Land: Lessons from the Frontlines of the Transformed Israeli-Palestinian Conflict'. She had lived there for a while, and one of the lessons I took from that is that the players don't really change that much. Benjamin Netanyahu on and off has been in power since the 90s, and we're still looking at the people who are in charge of the Palestinians, and I wonder ... I'm trying to look at this maybe in a different way, as who ... We like to think that gaining from peace would be all of the people of the region, but who stands to lose from peace, and who stands to win by maintaining the conflict? Is Hamas one of those who would gain by keeping this conflict alive?Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Well, Hamas certainly wants to keep the resistance mantle alive, and in that regard you saw some of that obviously playing out in sharp focus on Monday, and we might yet continue to see it play out in the days ahead. What is clear is the people of the region, the Israelis and Palestinians, are the ones that certainly stand to gain from the resolution of this conflict, and the people in Gaza are certainly suffering under the ongoing conflict and our inability, the parties' inability, the leaders' inability, the International community's inability to bring this to a resolution.Tim Farley (host): There also seems to be a concern about the ... perhaps a ... more movement by Iran to have an influence in the region. I know that some of the Saudi and other Arab neighbors publicly have condemned the violence, but have been privately communicating that they are concerned about what Iran is doing in all of this. And I don't know if that's directly related to the movement of the capital ... or the movement, rather, of the embassy. But I wonder if that is playing out also is another one of those somewhat connected events, although it's not directly connected. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Absolutely. All these dynamics are in the mix. There is Iranian support that goes to Hamas. The other piece to remember here ... There are two things that ... and you alluded to one of them. You have seen some strengthening of ties and certainly because of shared interests between Israel and Arab states with which it doesn't have formal peaceful relationships, because of the existence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But Israel is increasingly finding common ground with many of these Arab states, that they see Iran as the number one shared threat in the region. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Again, not directly connected to what we saw on Monday, but you have seen in the last couple of weeks really direct engagement, unprecedented, between Israel and Iran across Syria. Iran now has a presence in Syria, you saw Iran strike at Israeli positions in the Golan Heights last week, and Israel strike back. So you do have this dynamic going on in the north of the country, too, which, of course, when you try to connect this to what might happen with a peace process, this doesn't do much to make the Israeli public feel safe and in a position to think about taking risks with a process with the Palestinians, necessarily.Tim Farley (host): I have wondered ... In my own mind, I have wondered whether or not this is something where we have to wait and let generations forget about, or to sort of forget the animosity. On the other hand, that might cause it to actually grow and over time the separation becomes more and more institutionalized. But it doesn't matter almost, just what is real and the Israelis and the Palestinians say, because all of these other influences are so much a part of this process, it seems. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: That is true, but I think nobody can afford to wait. And what we have seen, with this, going back to this sort of narrow focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, sitting and waiting things only fester, and you end up with recurring cycles of violence. It's like seeing the same movie over again. We've now seen Israel with Hamas alone has engaged in three wars, active combat situations, since 2008. You have the tensions now brewing again on the border. Letting things fester is not the recipe either, though I agree with your initial point that this is not something that is going to be solved in the near term, and over time will be a generational process. Even if a peace agreement is signed all being well before then, it'll be a generational process of peace building and reconciliation after that point.Tim Farley (host): I hear the word generational, I hear you. I've been talking about this for a long, long time, as I'm sure you've been studying this all your life ... Lucy thanks for being here. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen: Thank you very much. Bye-bye.Tim Farley (host): Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen is Director of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Program at the United States Institute of Peace, putting in perspective the interconnected events of what has been taking place in the region after the United States moved its embassy to Jerusalem, and this prompting some protests and a lot of other things that have happened as a result. And you could tell from that conversation that it is pretty complex. By the way, the Twitter is @USIP.
Our guest on this episode is USIP Peace Scholar, Meshack Simati, a Ph.D. candidate in political science at Georgia State University. His dissertation is titled, “The False Promise of the Judiciary in Reducing Election Violence among African Countries.” Together we explore the history of election violence in Kenya and other countries around the world. What is election violence? How does it impact the voting process and the outcome? What are the implication for the future? How do we prevent it?
Our guest on this episode is USIP Research Fellow, Zinaida Besirevic, a Ph.D. candidate in human development and cognition at the University of California, Berkeley. Her dissertation compares children and adults in their reasoning about violations of Human Rights and infringements on human dignity. Together we discuss if moral reasoning changes with development, and whether and why we become more likely to tolerate harm.
Earlier this week, Russia’s Vladimir Putin began his fourth term. Ambassador William B. Taylor explains that Putin’s political longevity is a combination of Russia’s desire to feel important in the world again, Putin’s power over the media, and the support of powerful, wealthy friends. Nevertheless, Taylor says harsh U.S. sanctions combined with those from the international community have isolated and punished Russia for Putin’s provocations in Ukraine and elsewhere, meddling in elections, and cyberwarfare.
Fresh from her USIP delegation trip to Nigeria, Nancy Lindborg explains Nigeria’s importance to Africa and the United States. Lindborg discusses the critical on-the-ground work happening to prevent violence and underscores the importance of Nigerian governors to countering Boko Haram.
Following the horrendous bombing outside a Kabul voter registration center, Scott Worden shares his sobering analysis and commentary about the continuing war in Afghanistan, where he says that most agree that a military victory is unlikely. The conflict's grinding stalemate and upcoming elections concern Worden, especially with the announcement today by the Taliban of a new fighting season and their rejection of President Ghani’s peace offering.
In this episode, author and academic Severine Austesserre discusses her book, Peaceland. She offers personal stories from her years of work on the ground including issues of dissonance between field operation and home offices, the fight between theory and practice, the concept of “peace fatigue” and vested interests of peacebuilding.
In this episode we speak with former USIP Academy Vice President Lopez. As part of our series on Strategic Peacebuilding, Dr. Lopez addresses a variety of topics, including the meaning of strategic peacebuilding, the growth of the peacebuilding “industry,” and when strategic peacebuilding occurs during the cycle of conflict.
In this episode, USIP Academy Director Nadia Gerspacher discusses the fundamentals of community policing. As part of the course on Strategic Peacebuilding, she distinguishes community policing from hard policing and talks about the importance of working with local communities when engaging in security sector reform.
In this episode, USIP Senior Policy Fellow Maria Stephan, co-author of Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, discusses the concept of civil resistance as a tool for both conflict prevention and transformation. Dr. Stephan addresses such questions as: Where does civil resistance fit into peacebuilding? How can external actors support nonviolent campaign movements? How can nonviolent movements address potential spoilers?
In this episode, we interview USIP Senior Program Officer Fiona Mangan on the topic of rule of law. As part of the course on Strategic Peacebuilding, Ms. Mangan discusses prison reform and the importance of rule of law in post-conflict areas. During the interview, she answers such questions as: What is the difference between rule of law and human rights? What aspects of rule of law are universal? What are some examples of best practice?
In this episode, we interview former USIP Senior Program Officer Candace Karp on countering violent extremism, as part of the course on Conflict Analysis. In this interview, Dr. Karp explains what CVE is and distinguishes violent extremism from violence. She also discusses the current challenges and opportunities in Afghanistan, as well as the role of listening in conflict analysis.
In this episode, we talk with former USIP Senior Advisor, Dr. Sharon Morris about the changing face of conflict and the importance of conducting deep conflict analysis with multiple voices and perspectives. Some questions that are explore include: Are conflict analysis too simplistic? How deep is deep enough? Who is the ideal team to conduct a conflict assessment comprised? How do you effectively work with interpreters to be successful? Whose views and interpretations matters when conducting an analysis?
In this episode, we talk with Lisa Schirch from Alliance for Peacebuilding who offers her insight on peacebuilding around the world. What is peacebuilding? Who does it involve? What does it entail? Providing stories from her work around the world, Lisa also discusses the importance and sometimes obstacles of conducting a conflict analysis and the need to continually reassess it.
In this episode, we talk with Dr. Jeff Helsing and Dr. Matt Levinger about the importance of conflict analysis. What is the connection between insiders and outsiders when trying to analyze a conflict? Are there certain frameworks that are more effective than others when gathering information? How are drivers of peace and drivers of conflict identified? Why is adaptive leadership important in conflict analysis? What is the difference between conflict management and peacebuilding? These are some of the questions that are discussed during this hour long podcast.
This episode features Jesse Pruett, a veteran of 20 years of military and government service. In this interview, Jesse Pruett shares his personal experiences with tactical negotiations, stalemates, and coordination with civilian/military bodies and interagency collaboration.
In this episode, Chief Diversity Officer & Associate Provost for Tufts University, Mark Brimhall-Vargas talks with us about the importance of ensuring diverse voices are heard in conflict or potential conflict settings. This includes extensive discussion about intergroup dialogue being used as a tool to ensure voices are heard. What is dialogue? What are different models of intergroup dialogue? How does one frame questions in a non-threatening manner?
In this episode we talk with Ariana Barth, USIP Program Specialist about her experience facilitating dialogue with Seeds of Peace, an organization that helps teenagers from regions of conflict learn the skills of making peace. As part of the Community-based Peacebuilding: Engaging Youth course, Ariana discusses the benefits and positive aspects of working with youth, particularly through dialogue.
In this episode, we explore the concept of restorative justice with Dominic Barter of Restorative Circles. How do systems and approaches to justice help or hinder the process of building peace? Is restorative justice an approach that can help heal the wounds that form as a result of conflict, be it personal, familial, regional or global?
In honor of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s birthday, this special episode of the Peace Frequency is dedicated to the history, theory and practice of nonviolent action. What role is nonviolence playing in today’s conflict and what are some misperceptions? How have communities who are engaged in conflict, that are facing injustice, or are living under oppressive conditions, applying nonviolence in their struggles. What are specific ways to teach and train communities, particularly youth, to understand nonviolent struggle and wage it successfully?
In this episode we talk with DJ and producer of Jack Radio in Medellin, Colombia, Jeff Guerra. Exploring the idea that there are many ways to be a peacebuilder, we seek to answer questions such as: What do arts-based approaches to peacebuilding look like? How can music and culture provide alternatives to violence and help communities help reconstruct identities that have been shaped by violent conflict?
In this episode we talk with Dr. Anthony Wanis-St. John, Director of the MA International Peace and Conflict Resolution program at American University. Anthony discusses negotiation and its role as an integral component of conflict resolution. He shares many of the challenges, successes, and failures of his own personal experiences with negotiation, including the importance of culture and best practices for coaching mediators in negotiation.
From Lebanon, Osama Gharizi shares his analysis about the clarity of U.S. objectives after retaliatory missile strikes targeting the Assad regime’s suspected chemical weapons facilities. Gharizi says these strikes sent a signal to Assad and his allies that there are limits to U.S. and coalition intervention in Syria. In turn, these limits strengthen Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s roles as the diplomatic arbiters to negotiate a peace deal. Separately, Gharizi addresses the risks associated with the suggestion of setting up an Arab force in Syria that could create further obscurity in terms of U.S. intent and objectives versus those of Arab countries forming such a force.
Leaders from the Western Hemisphere absent Venezuela’s President Maduro will gather for the 8th Summit of the Americas in Peru later this week. Vice President Pence following the summit will travel on to Colombia. Steve Hege explains a range of issues involving Colombia from U.S. bilateral relations, upcoming elections, peace plan implementation and reforms, and the strains on public infrastructure and services as a result of an exodus of Venezuelan refugees.
Following USIP’s event “Iraq and Syria: Views from the U.S. Administration, Military Leaders and the Region,” Mike Yaffe provides key takeaways from the panel featuring CENTCOM Commander General Votel, USAID Administrator Green, and Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS McGurk. "Iraq and Syria are complex and starkly different from one another," says Yaffe, "but the key goals are the same: concentrate on defeating ISIS and work by, with, and through local people to stabilize each country."
In this episode, we speak with Andrea Harrison who serves as deputy legal advisor of the Washington Delegation of the International Committee of the Red Cross. She shares with us the role the ICRC plays in international conflict as while providing some legal frameworks and terminology to help us understand the world of international humanitarian law. Additionally, Andrea answers questions regarding negotiations including preparations, leverage and empathy towards your counterpart.
In this episode, we are joined by Colonel Steven Donaldson, Joint Provost Marshall for the Military District of Washington and Joint Forces Headquarters at Fort McNair. The interview explores Steven’s experiences with negotiation when confronted with strict hierarchies, stalemates, and counterparts without authority.
This episode features Pamela Aall, senior advisor for conflict prevention and management at USIP, senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), and founding Provost of USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding. In this episode she addresses a wide variety of topics related to cross-cultural and multiparty negotiation, including negotiating techniques, regional cooperation in conflict management, cross-cultural communication, and women’s involvement in conflict resolution.
In this episode we speak with Grande Lum – Director of the Community Relations Service (CRS) at the United States Department of Justice. We speak about the origins and birth of CRS during the Civil Rights Movement, some of best mediator and conciliators he has worked with or observed, and how the professional and skill of mediation and negotiation has evolved over time.
In this episode, we talk with Sandra Melone, Executive Vice President of Search for Common Ground, about the importance of monitoring and evaluating peacebuilding programs. This includes discussion on transparency, self-deception, balancing evaluation needs of stakeholders and organizational ones, and working with external evaluators.
How do we know the work we do actually benefits the communities we work in? In this episode, we talk with Bidjan Nashat with Save the Children Germany about the importance of monitoring and evaluation in peacebuilding programs, particularly at the onset of design and with the input of the local community.
In this episode we speak with Doug Smith – Program Officer at the Rule of Law Center at the United States Institute of Peace. We talk about his approaches to monitoring and evaluation in peacebuilding programs.
In this episode we talk with Julia Roig, President of Partners for Democratic Change. She discusses the work of Partners and how they conduct evaluations of their 20 affiliate offices around the world. How does Partners ensure quality of standards across offices? Does working across various geographical areas and context affect monitoring and evaluation? How has social media affected the work among Partner offices?
In this episode, we speak with Joyce Neu, founder and senior associate at Facilitating Peace. She shares her experience in mediation and answers such questions as: Can force ever be used effectively prior to a mediation or peace process? What role do women play in mediation processes? What role does the UN play in mediating violent conflict?
In this conversation we speak with Dr. Eileen F. Babbitt – Professor of Practice of International Conflict Management, Director of the Institute for Human Security, and Co-director of the Program on Human Rights and Conflict Resolution at The Fletcher School.
In this episode we speak with Hamidullah Natiq – Senior Training Officer working for the United States Institute of Peace in Afghanistan. In our conversation Natiq takes us through his journey towards becoming a self-identified peacebuilding trainer. He also sheds light on how he approaches setting up and facilitating a learning experience. He introduces the term, “discovery education,” and talks about some of the ways this model of teaching and training aids the peacebuilding process.
In this episode we speak with Benjamin Naimark-Rowse – a PhD candidate at the Fletcher School for Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. His dissertation, in the works, is titled “Dear Friend: Correspondence Across Enemy Lines,” which looks at the relationship Nelson Mandela had with leaders of the Apartheid government during and immediately after his 27 years in prison. Naimark-Rowse uses this story as a foil to better understand the concept of strategic communication and how it applies to nonviolent and mixed method movements.
The alleged Russian use of a chemical weapon against a former Russian spy turned double agent in the United Kingdom led to scores of Russian diplomats being sent packing from the United States and Western Europe. Ambassador Taylor discusses the strong showing of unity among Western nations, and its effect on Russian intelligence gathering efforts and additional U.S. and international economic sanctions.
In this episode we speak with author, educator, activist, and co-editor of the 2012 book, We Have Not Been Moved: Resisting Racism and Militarism in 21st Century America. Meyer is a long-time leader of the War Resisters League and a founder of the anti-imperialist collective Resistance in Brooklyn (RnB). His solidarity and writing includes co-authorship with Pan-African pacifist Bill Sutherland of Guns and Gandhi in Africa, of which Archbishop Tutu commented: “Sutherland and Meyer have begun to develop a language which looks at the roots of our humanness.” Meyer’s work in education includes a ten-year stint as Multicultural Coordinator for NYC’s Alternative High Schools, and work on the Board of the Peace and Justice Studies Association.
In this show we speak with Todd Walters – Founder and Executive Director of International Peace Park Expeditions. Walters has adapted Peace & Conflict Impact Assessment methodology to transboundary protected areas, and produced short documentary films in the Transcending Boundaries series which portray multiple stakeholder perspectives concerning environmental peacebuilding in transboundary protected areas. Walters is also a member of the Transboundary Conservation Specialist Group at the International Union for the Conservation of Nature where he is developing a practitioners training curriculum on Transboundary Conservation best practices and is a Fellow at the Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security.
In this episode we speak with Saba Ismail, who co-founded with her sister, Aware Girls – a young women-led organisation working for the empowerment of young women and gender equality in Pakistan. Her bravery and activism was acknowledged by Foreign Policy Magazine, which awarded her as one of the 100 Leading Global Thinkers of 2013. She is also on the Steering Committee of UNOY and represents Asia in the World Youth Movement for Democracy. She has done research on the “Role of Young women in Emerging Democracies”. She is the co-founder of South Asian Regional Feminists Forum on Women’s Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights. She has worked as Youth Ambassador for Asia Pacific Youth Network (APYN: 20120-2013).
Kicking off 60 days of engagement around youth, gender and peace, this episode of the Peace Frequency speaks with Vweta Chadwick - a human rights champion with over 10 years’ experience working to advance the rights of women and girls. She is the programs director of Project ASHA, an NGO advancing the rights of women and girls in underserved communities across Africa. She, equally, doubles as the secretary of Carrington Youth Fellowship Alumni Network. The 60 days of engagement - #Youth4PeaceandEquality - are bringing awareness and education to three international days of celebration: August 12th is International Youth Day; September 21st is International Peace Day; and October 11th is International Day of the Girl Child.
Youth peacebuilder, Gbenga Oni of Nigeria, is a Generation Change and YALI Fellow who implements peacebuilding programs in Northern Nigeria in partnership with Justice, Development and Peace Caritas Advocates. JDPCA envisions a community where justice and promotion of human dignity are held sacred and all citizens are able to realize their full potential in a just, safe and free environment. On the show, Gbenga will discuss the challenges associated with reaching gender equality in Nigeria and what young people are doing to further this goal.
As part of USIP's 60 days of engagement around the intersections between youth, gender and peace, in this episode of the Peace Frequency we speak with Dr. Illana Lancaster about creating inclusive classrooms. Illana holds a master’s degree in secondary education and a PhD in international education policy. Her 2008 dissertation explored the role of race, class, and gender in school-related violence in secondary schools in Johannesburg, South Africa. She is a senior program officer in the USIP Academy where she specializes in curriculum and training design and delivery, trainer development and university partnerships. Illana discusses her experience as an educator and why inclusive education is critical to building more peaceful societies. She offers techniques and strategies for applying a gender lens in the classroom and answers incoming questions from the audience.
In this episode of the Peace Frequency we continue our series focused on the #YouthPeaceEquality 60 Days of Engagement. Our guest is Marc Sommers, who is an internationally recognized youth, conflict, development, gender, and education expert, an experienced evaluator, and an award-winning author. He has conducted research, assessments and evaluations, and provided technical advice, in 21 war-affected countries (15 in Africa) since 1990. His most recent book is entitled, The Outcast Majority: War, Development, and Youth in Africa.
In this episode of the Peace Frequency we speak with Aaron Shneyer, the Founder & Executive Director of Heartbeat – an organization that unites Israeli and Palestinian youth musicians to build critical understanding, develop creative nonviolent tools for social change, and amplify their voices to influence the world around them. Heartbeat staff members are trained musicians and dialogue facilitators, entrusted to create and hold a space for participants to build critical consciousness of the complicated world they have inherited and to support participants in developing skills in critical thinking, communication, leadership, and creative nonviolent civic engagement.
In this episode we speak with Gizem Kilinç who is a leading coordinator for the United Network of Young Peacebuilders – a global network strengthening sustainable youth-driven peacebuilding working with 80 organizations across 45 countries. Gizem is in charge on UNOY’s advocacy work and ensuring they work gender sensitively into their work.
In this episode of the Peace Frequency we take you to Memphis, TN and the annual Gandhi-King Conference. This year's theme was "Know Justice, Know Peace" and this episode is dedicated to that theme and the individuals who attend this conference. This recording featured seven individuals talking about their own identities, their own experiences with justice and peace and their understanding of love as the foundation of nonviolence.
In this episode we speak with Colette Rausch, Associate Vice President for Global Practice and Innovation at the United States Institute of Peace. For over twenty years, Colette has used her legal expertise to advance human rights and the rule of law in conflict-affected communities. From Libya to Peru, Burma to Afghanistan and many other countries around the world, she has been at the forefront of addressing the most serious of crimes, crimes that keep countries embroiled in violence. Colette is coming out with her new book, "Fighting Serious Crimes: Strategies and Tactics for Conflict Affected States" and we spend some time on the show talking about what she and the other contributors to the book have learned through their many years of experiencing addressing crimes such as terrorism, drug trafficking, human trafficking, corruption, and organized crime. We also take a close look at Colette's personal story - how a young federal prosecutor in Reno, Nevada going after telemarketers wound up in Bosnia and began transforming herself into an international peacebuilder with a growing appreciation for the rule of law.
For International Women’s Month, Kathleen Kuehnast underscores the importance of women’s contribution to peace and security. Dr. Kuehnast argues that the new millennium, whether through U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325 or less formal engagement via social media, has empowered women to take a greater role in peace building.
Secretary of Defense Mattis’s visit to Kabul, Afghanistan, follows a spike in activity from all parties proffering peace talks. Johnny Walsh shares his thoughts about the U.S. strategy to bolster the Afghan government’s position to enter into peace talks with the Taliban.
This week in Washington, Prime Minister Netanyahu successfully shifted the optics from mounting domestic pressure. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen shares her analysis about Netanyahu’s warm reception at the AIPAC conference and his White House meeting focused on Iran. The conversation continues with Kurtzer-Ellenbogen explaining the latest hurdles for Middle East Peace and the anticipation for the Trump administration’s Middle East Peace Plan.
In this episode we discuss mediating violent conflicts with Dr. Chester A. Crocker. Dr. Crocker is James R. Schlesinger professor of strategic studies at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service and serves on the board of its Institute for the Study of Diplomacy. Dr. Crocker’s teaching and research focus on international security and conflict management. From 1981 to 1989, Dr. Crocker served as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. He developed the strategy and led the diplomacy that produced the treaties signed by Angola, Cuba, and South Africa in New York in December 1988. These agreements resulted in Namibia’s independence (March 1990) and the withdrawal of foreign forces from Namibia and Angola. President Ronald Reagan granted him the President’s Citizens Medal, the country’s second highest civilian award. Dr. Crocker has also served as the Chairman of the USIP Board of Directors from 1992 – 2004.
In this episode, we speak with Virginia (Ginny) M. Bouvier, Senior Advisor for Latin America programs at the United States Institute of Peace. She describes the ongoing peace process in Colombia, which she blogs about at Colombia Calls, as well as how practitioners can address spoilers in negotiation or mediation processes.
In this episode, we speak with Ambassador Princeton Lyman, a Senior Advisor at the U.S. Institute of Peace and U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan and South Sudan from March 2011-2013. Here, Ambassador Lyman recounts his experience in African affairs, including his perspective on the end of apartheid in South Africa and the prospects for peace in the Sudans.
We speak with Dr. Erica Chenoweth – Associate Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver and an Associate Senior Researcher at the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO). Together with Maria J. Stephan, she won the 2013 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, which is presented annually in recognition of outstanding proposals for creating a more just and peaceful world order. Their book, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict, also won the 2012 Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award. In December 2013, Foreign Policy named Chenoweth one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers of the year “for proving Gandhi right,” noting her work on providing evidence for the efficacy of nonviolent political movements.
We speak with Kerri Kennedy, Associate General Secretary for International Programs at the American Friends Service Committee. Kerri has 18 years of experience managing international development and emergency response programs in areas of conflict and post conflict environments with a focus on inclusive governance systems, civic education and advocacy campaigns, gender, and rights-based policy development.
We speak with Nadeem Ghazi, the Founder and Director of the World Learning Grammar School & Institute, which provides support to schools throughout Pakistan that have declared a commitment to creating and maintaining a culture of peace. There are currently over 100 member schools engaged in this effort where students, teachers and community members work together to ensure that everyone feels safe, respected and valued. Nadeem has extensive peace education experience having worked with a variety of organizations including Peaceful Schools International, the United States Institute of Peace, Peace Direct-UK, and the British Council for Sports For Peace. Nadeem's peace education work and trainings were the basis for the 2012 manual, Building a Culture of Peace: A Practical Guide for Schools, a resource supported by the United States Institute of Peace and Peaceful Schools International. Locally in Pakistan, he has trained the staff of CARE International, Shirkat Gah, and more than 80 schools and different NGOs in Pakistan, introducing them to peace education and its implementation with curriculum integration.
In this podcast, INPROL Director Lelia Mooney and Senior Program Assistant Chelsea Dreher discuss data collection technologies with Derek Caelin, Senior Specialist for Peace Tech Lab. Derek works on the Lab’s PeaceTech Exchange program, an initiative to connect peacebuilders in conflict zones to media, technology, and data for them help them achieve their objectives. Working with local partners, Derek and the PeaceTech Exchange team have put on workshops in countries like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to address issues such as Transparency & Accountability, Countering Violent Extremism and Gender Based Violence. Recognizing that sound research sets a foundation for successful rule of law initiatives, we use this episode to reflect on how PeaceTech can enhance practitioners’ assessments and analysis in challenging contexts. Derek introduces and explains a number of low cost technologies that rule of law professionals can use to collect critical data when funds are tight, and internet access is unreliable.
In this podcast, INPROL Director Lelia Mooney and Senior Program Assistant Chelsea Dreher walk through quantitative and qualitative research processes with their colleague, Kristina Simion. Kristina is INPROL’s Research Facilitator, and a desk officer for the Folke Bernadotte Academy’s rule of law program. She is also working towards her PhD at the Australian National University’s School of Regulation and Global Governance. In 2016, Kristina leveraged her skills from working as a rule of law practitioner in the field and her knowledge acquired through rigorous academic study to author a Practitioner’s Guide: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches to Rule of Law Research. This INPROL publication offers step-by-step guidance to conducting appropriate, high quality research to inform holistic rule of law programming. In this interview, Kristina delves further into the topic – defining key terms and highlighting helpful research tools and tips for practitioners that want to establish a strong foundation for initiatives in conflict-affected and developing countries.
In this podcast, INPROL Director Lelia Mooney and Senior Program Assistant Chelsea Dreher get expert insights on overcoming obstacles to rule of law research and sharing your research to maximize its impact. Their guest is Kristina Simion, INPROL’s Research Facilitator and a desk officer for the Folke Bernadotte Academy’s rule of law program. She is currently working towards her PhD at the Australian National University’s School of Regulation and Global Governance. In this podcast, Kristina provides helpful tips to practitioners who are looking to share their knowledge and research, and walks listeners through processes for overcoming major challenges to conducting sensitive research in conflict-affected environments. Tune in for ideas on how to tackle language barriers, process mass amounts of data, and more!
In this podcast, INPROL Director Lelia Mooney and Senior Program Assistant Chelsea Dreher speak with Alison Evans, who walks listeners through the steps of making a new or revised law take shape in everyday life. Alison is Legislation Practice Lead for Senscia, a Brussels-based consulting firm. She’s worked as a legislative drafter for both the Isle of Man and Australia, and has experience with policy development in the latter jurisdiction. Most recently Alison has been assisting the Commonwealth Secretariat in developing policy frameworks and legislation to combat cybercrime. Having worked at the intersections of legal drafting and implementation, she is able to offer insights on shepherding a law from inception to realization. Listen in for her tips on navigating complex environments and setting up reform processes for success.
Just days after returning from Iraq, Nancy Lindborg shares her impression of the improved landscape in Iraq after ISIS’ brutal occupation. Lindborg describes the unifying sense of Iraqi pride following ISIS’s ouster, but she cautions that if the government fails to become more inclusive and accountable, Iraq could fall back into a highly sectarian environment.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen previews Vice President Mike Pence's upcoming visit to the Middle East following the Trump administration’s announcement recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Kurtzer-Ellenbogen also addresses the importance of the trip and the expectations for the visit to neighboring Arab nations.
Derek Mitchell talks to us about the current humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, and addresses the international and domestic constituencies that Aung San Suu Kyi must navigate as the crisis continues.
Ann-Louise Colgan discusses the International Day of Peace and USIP’s Third Annual Peace Day Challenge.
Sarhang Hamasaeed tells us why the results of the non-binding Kurdistan independence referendum matter, and explains the need to prevent an escalation of tensions that could lead to violence with Shia militias, the Iraqi Army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
Jonas Claes joins us to talk about Liberia’s election and the significance of the country's first peaceful transfer of power since 1944. Claes also lays out the challenges for the Kenyan election taking place in October following the country’s Supreme Court nullification of the earlier September election.
USIP President Nancy Lindborg tells us about the challenges presented by North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and discusses her own experiences travelling to North Korea.
Having just returned from Burma talks about the USIP delegation she led to Burma, and the complexities facing the country. What can we expect from a nation contending with 22 ethnic armed groups, clashes with the Rohingya, and a continuing transition from military rule to the doorstep of democracy.
Frank Aum discusses the Korean Peninsula, and whether there is a pathway to keep the peaceful momentum going after the Olympic Games. Aum also tells us about the effect of international sanctions on North Korea and China’s interests.
Sarhang Hamasaeed reviews a tense week in which the Iraqi Army and Kurdish forces clashed in the disputed area of Kirkuk. With ISIS driven out of Kirkuk, renewed tensions dating back to 2014 have re-emerged between the Iraqi Army and Popular Mobilization Forces Hamasaeed tells us why a political dialogue process is central to protecting minorities, and avoiding Shia and Sunni clashes.
Frank Aum discusses the dangers of war with North Korea, offers possible solutions to the crisis and tells us what he thinks the chances are for diplomacy and negotiation.
Ambassador Bill Taylor reflects on the significance of the Arab Spring and the changes brought about by the movement, including the democratic transition in Tunisia, the major political changes in Egypt and the role of the United States in these type of events.
Mona Yacoubian gives us a glimpse into the changing dynamics in Syria, addressing Assad’s grip on power, Russia’s support, and Iran and Turkey’s roles and interests. Yacoubian also addresses the rising tensions between Turkey and the United States over the Kurds.
Fresh off his trip to Kabul, Afghanistan, Scott Worden shares his analysis of the string of recent Taliban and ISIS attacks. Worden discusses how these attacks are meant to destabilize the Ghani government, and how 2019 elections could be affected by Taliban and ISIS pressures.
Ambassador William Taylor updates us on Ukraine’s efforts to upgrade its military with U.S. assistance to defend eastern Ukraine from Russian-led militias. Taylor weighs in on U.S. efforts to find a diplomatic solution to ease Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, the effect of U.S. and European sanctions on Putin, and the recognition of the U.S. National Defense and National Security Strategies that Russia is a top threat.
Maria Stephan discusses non-violent action in Iran and the diversity among participants in the recent protests. Stephan tackles the impact of cyber suppression on protesters and how "head scarf protests" have fared.
Moeed Yusuf argues that U.S.-Pakistan relations that are approaching a breaking point where the two countries seem to be acting more as adversaries than partners given the heightened sense of mistrust. Yusuf shares observations from his recent Pakistan trip, and describes the contingency planning and unpredictability Pakistan may exhibit with continued U.S. pressure.
Carla Koppell discusses U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325 for the protection of women and girls, and gives her analysis about the work still needs to be done to include women in peace negotiations.
Mona Yacoubian tells us about the liberation of Raqqa, Syria, and explains the necessity of continued U.S. involvement in Raqqa.
Neil Kritz previews the pending agreement to heal a decade of division between Hamas and Fatah, and explains what effects the reconciliation might have on the larger Middle East Peace Process.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
On the heels of the Asia Foundation's 13th annual Survey of the Afghan People, Scott Worden discusses key findings, trend lines, reasons for optimism and important points of concern that stem from the comprehensive survey.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.