Lagniappe: Recent Episodes
Stokes Family Office
Lagniappe is a weekly podcast from Stokes Family Office. Join Doug and Greg each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and whatever else is on our minds!
As the Federal Reserve hosts its annual conference out West in Jackson Hole, we’ll take a look at what Jerome Powell said and what they forecasted that they’ll do next. We also discuss how mortgage rates, cash buyers, and new builds are affecting the real estate market. We finish with Humble Dollar’s seven financial superpowers that can help you make, save, invest, and ultimately enjoy money.
Key Takeaways
[00:20] - Checking in on the Fed’s economic policy symposium
[05:18] - Is there pent-up demand for home purchases?
[10:15] - Unsurprising news out of Russia
[12:16] - Financial Superpowers
Links
Powell: "It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal”
Truflation says we’re currently at 2.56%
Richard Moody: Regions Economic Outlook, August 2023
Spreads between treasuries and mortgages are still extremely high
Downed Russian jet carried Wagner’s hierarchy including Yevgeny Prigozhin
Jonathan Clements’ financial superpowers he says we should all strive to cultivate
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
After Michael Burry (of Big Short fame) made his crash prediction, we decided to go back through the success rate of his predictions. We then go abroad and take a look at the Chinese economy’s contraction, how Britain and our Mississippi neighbors are similar, and more insane sportswashing from Saudi Arabia. We’ll end with data on young homeowners and how coastal areas could take an even bigger real estate market hit.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - Fearmongering from Michael Burry + the media
[06:30] - What’s going on with the Chinese market?
[11:33] - Britain = Mississippi and Neymar = rich
[14:41] - The shocking data on how much Americans have saved for retirement
[17:39] - Homeownership rate for young people may be better than narrative says
[20:43] - Factoring in homeowner’s insurance in places like New Orleans
Links
Big Short trader Michael Burry bets $1.6 billion on stock market crash
Michael Burry’s market predictions: Hits, misses, and the reality
Mexico surpassed China as the top U.S. trading partner
China suspends report on youth unemployment, which was at a record high
Is Britain really as poor as Mississippi?
Perks of Neymar’s Saudi Arabia football club deal
Here’s what a $5M retirement looks like in the U.S.
Young homeownership rate actually comparable to the last four decades
Mortgage rates and home prices needed to return to pre-pandemic affordability
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
We start this week by looking at perma-bear prognosticators and on the flip side, the excitement and danger behind the hype of the “next big industry”. And staying on winners and losers, we’ll examine UPS drivers, the decline in petroleum interest, and Phil Mickelson’s eye-opening bets. We will, of course, finish with our weekly inflation update.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - The doom-and-gloom-ers are back
[07:49] - The winners and losers of darling tech companies
[12:50] - It’s a good time to be a UPS driver
[13:50] - While oil is up, undergrad interest is way down
[18:31] - Phil Mickelson’s bets
[21:06] - What’s driving the decline in inflation?
Links
John Hussman predicts extreme bubble in stocks will end in tears
WeWork - from $47 billion to $270 million
NVDA joins 99 companies with the highest P/S multiple within the 500 largest stocks
From Apple to Amazon, the staggering cash-on-hand numbers
Full-time UPS drivers will earn $170,000 a year, on average, in new contract
Undergrad enrollment in petroleum engineering down 75% over the past 10 years
Vanguard Energy ETF
Since 1995, US Airfares have increased 29% on a nominal basis but have actually declined 36% after adjusting for inflation
New book alleges Phil Mickelson wagered over $1 billion, tried to bet on Ryder Cup
US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today
The demand for mortgages has evaporated
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
As potentially positive economic factors pile up, we look at the market’s recovery, what’s factored into disinflation, and where we go from here. We’ll also examine two strategic competitions: oil vs electricity and real estate vs. the S&P 500.
Key Takeaways
[03:17] - The tailwinds of deflation
[07:49] - Is our power grid ready for mass EV usage?
[12:06] - Oil isn’t going anywhere
[15:03] - Real estate investment compared to the S&P 500
Links
Sam Ro: Everything looked good last week
Barry Sternlicht on the ‘category 5 hurricane’ hitting office buildings
6 things that actually cost less than last year, despite inflation
Nick Timiraos: Why the drivers of lower inflation matter
WTI Oil up 15% in July
Goldman Sachs estimates global oil demand has risen to an all-time high
Elon Musk’s latest mission: rev up the electricity industry
Jeff Currie: oil’s not going anywhere
Nick Maggiulli: The Return on Hassle
2010 acres outside Telluride purchased for $130,000 in 40s listed for $67.75M
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
As performance numbers roll in from some of the country’s largest companies, we take a look at how the markets are performing here vs. the World and how America became a global economic leader. We also discuss how the market deals with intra-year volatility and check back in on Taylor Swift and Messi as market impactors.
Key Takeaways
[02:38] - Breaking down the latest earnings numbers
[05:00] - How the markets move intra-year and year over year
[07:17] - How the rest of the world is faring in comparison to the U.S.
[14:36] - T-Swift makes the Fed’s Beige Book
[16:38] - Messi is just like us
Links
Ro: The stock market has Wall Street on its heels
CNN Fear and Greed Index
Peter Lynch: “I love volatility”
WSJ: Europeans are becoming poorer
Annual working hours across the world
Federal Reserve credits Taylor Swift with boosting hotel revenues through Eras Tour
Lionel Messi at Publix
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, we look at what comes from cooling inflation paired with a resilient economy. With the latest inflation numbers in hand, we’ll examine how shelter impacts the numbers, visualize the staggering amount of empty office space, and try to explain what’s going on at Disney.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - The latest inflation report and shelter’s role in the numbers
[04:21] - What are the “experts” saying?
[10:23] - The general economy vs. inflation
[11:37] - The empty office conundrum
[15:01] - What’s going on with Disney?
[20:04] - Tales from our first jobs
Links
WSJ: Inflation eased to 3% in June, the lowest since early 2021
Goldman: Fed tightening is in its final innings
Flight Rader 24: Busiest day for commercial aviation that we’ve ever tracked
Visualizing 1 billion square feet of empty office space
The empty downtown - a new normal
Boston offers tax breaks to turn empty offices into housing
Disney World hasn’t felt this empty in years
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
As we wrap up the week, we take a look at the June jobs report and how it may affect the calls for recession and the Fed’s actions moving forward. We’ll also dissect movement in the electric vehicle, T-Bill, and housing markets and end with our takes on the great American summer blockbusters.
Key Takeaways
[00:27] - Looking at the newest jobs report
[7:15] - T-Bill yields are at their highest in over two decades
[10:34] - The implications of interest rates
[11:06] - Teslas and the electric car market overall
[16:22] - Could we see sub-3% mortgage rates again?
[20:30] - We put on our film critic hats to say what American movies need to do
Links
Ryan Detrick: Takeaways from the new jobs numbers
Mark Zandi: “The June employment report was close to perfect”
Current Truflation number
T-Bills are at their highest rate in over 20 years
CNBC: Least affordable car market in modern history
The top-selling EVs in the first half of 2023 in the US
WSJ: Rising EV inventory on dealership lots will offer test of future demand
Antonelli: the sub 3% 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be the greatest gift ever bestowed on US homeowners.
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
As we trot into the locker room at the halfway point of this year, we examine the competing ideology of calls for a recession vs. declining inflation leading to a bull market. We’ll also look at the economy’s resiliency, how America is viewed across the world, and the unprecedented play of Shohei Ohtani.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - Recapping the markets in the first half of this year
[11:04] - Positive milestones in the rental markets
[13:46] - The historical probability of market returns
[14:55] - Shohei Ohtani is a stud
[17:00] - How the U.S. is viewed globally
[20:26] - Will Mexico be the next big growth market?
[24:21] - America’s aging population
Links
Barry Ritholtz: What Recession?
Major milestones in the rental market
History says there’s a higher probability of the stock market finishing up 20% than down for the year
Ohtani’s 2 HR, 10K night
International public opinion of the U.S. remains positive
The US population is older than it has ever been
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, we start by discussing the biggest story in the news, the Titan Submersible tragedy. We’ll also look at the transformation of real estate and stock markets and examine the go-forward outlook of the U.S. economy vs. the World.
Key Takeaways
[00:22] - Recapping the Titan Submersible tragedy
[07:25] - The most expensive U.S. cities to buy a house in 1930
[11:42] - The evolution of participation in the stock market
[17:57] - Shifting from a historical to a current look at the markets
[24:24] - The U.S. economy vs the EU and the UK
Links
The booming business of trying to reach the ends of the Earth
More than 500 migrants presumed dead after shipwreck off Coast of Greece
A $49.99 videogame controller could have been running the Titanic submersible
10 things you may not know about the Great Depression
The “More Doctors Smoke Camels” ad campaign
The number of stocks accounting for the S&P 500's gain by year
CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index continues its YoY decline
Months without a 52-week high in the market
Europe has fallen behind America and the gap is growing
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
We discuss the new CPI data, look back at what the experts predicted, and hopefully put the Fed conversation to rest. We’ll also talk about the potential fading of oil demand and ESG importance, and close with our favorite Indiana Jones movies.
Key Takeaways
[01:00] - Summarizing inflation data and the Fed’s reaction
[05:15] - Did experts see this coming?
[14:42] - Are we about to see oil demand begin to tamper?
[20:49] - Tesla, Bud Light, and the importance of ESG scores/public opinion
[25:09] - Our favorite Indiana Jones editions before the release of the new movie
Links
Fed pauses rate hikes after 15 consecutive months of increases
Price changes over the last year (CPI report)
Truflation is at 2.34%
Charlie Bilello: Did the experts see this coming? No.
Robert Kiyosaki (2/12): Giant crash coming
Bloomberg: Global oil demand growth will taper off over the next few years
Buffett is buying more Occidental Petroleum stock as oil prices near 2023 lows
Patrick Bet-David: Phillip Morris received a higher ESG score than Tesla
ESG becoming much less of a talking point on earnings calls
Ramp Capital: The king of beer has been dethroned
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, we discuss the two biggest stories in not only the sports world but the world at large. We also dive into how people are living and spending their money and what that could mean for a recession as well as give updates on the bond and oil markets and ChatGPT vs the S&P 500.
Key Takeaways
[00:58] - Messi’s unprecedented move to the MLS
[06:10] - The shocking LIV/PGA merger
[09:27] - What does it mean that we’re not seeing significant recessionary indicators?
[22:43] - Update on the oil markets
[24:04] - The importance of who you listen to for financial advice
Links
Messi sold more PSG jerseys last year ($130m) than total revenue for the top-earning MLS team, LAFC ($116m)
Messi turns down $400M per year contract from Saudis
Messi's deal includes profit sharing from Apple and Adidas
Players shocked and angry after LIV/PGA merger
Tiger Woods Was Offered LIV Golf Contract in $700M-$800M Range
Nick Timiraos: Goldman Sachs cuts recession probability down to 25%
Scott Grannis: The information we have to date strongly suggests that the Fed is done—no more hikes
CNN Fear and Greed Index: Extreme Greed
Jeffrey Kleintop: Bull markets don't wait for recessions to be over
Charlie Bilello: US Bond Market in drawdown for 34 months, by far the longest in history
WSJ: This Rally Is All About a Few Star Stocks
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The cryptocurrency industry is one of the most volatile and unpredictable industries in the world. In just a few short years, the industry has gone from being relatively unknown to being worth billions of dollars. The recent drama surrounding the FTX cryptocurrency exchange is a cautionary tale for the industry. It is a reminder of how quickly things can go wrong in the Wild West world of crypto and how easy it is for investors to get caught up in the hype. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about one of the latest and biggest market events, the fallout of cryptocurrency. As a part of the weekly news digest, the two also speak about inflation and how the FTX's fallout repeats history.
Key Takeaways
[00:53] - Two potential outcomes in today's economic climate.
[02:06] - Greg's take on a good inflation print.
[04:41] - The FTX fallout.
[08:32] - What the new CEO of FTX has to say about FTX's bankruptcy.
[10:30] - The experts' take on what's holding up inflation at this point.
[12:15] - Doug and Greg's market prediction for the year ahead.
[15:07] - What may cause the Federal Reserve to a halting scenario.
[19:30] - How the FTX's fallout is repeating history.
[22:45] - Greg's advice for investors and money managers.
Quotes [12:15] - "My prediction for next year is that if we have a bad market year, bonds will return to being diversifiers, and the 60/40 will be alive again." ~ Doug Stokes [13:22] - "Even if we have a recession, the markets may still be up, and bonds may still be up, too, because bonds will have priced in the fact that inflation is coming down." ~ Greg Stokes [14:17] - "Markets are the most up-to-date snapshot of human psychology and how people feel about buying and selling assets at any time." ~ Greg Stokes [22:56] - "If you get excited about something, try to allocate a small percentage of your net worth to it. So if it doesn't work out, it won't sink the ship." ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Cullen Roche
Sam Bankman-Fried
Charlie Bilello
Anthony Pompliano
Tom Brady
Mark Cuban
Michael Saylor
MicroStrategy
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Dave Portnoy
Barstool Sports
SafeMoon
Dogecoin
Coinbase
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg take a little break from the usual marketing discussion and talk about some other exciting things, basketball, and football. They are joined today by Scott Kushner. Scott is a leading expert on New Orleans sports and a columnist for The Times-Picayune. He is also the co-host of the Polk and Kush podcast, covering New Orleans' teams with a bend away from stats and bold takes. Scott talks with Doug and Greg about the Pelicans, Tulane football, and the Saints. Aside from sharing his thoughts on New Orleans sports, he also speaks about where he sees the city's sports scene going.
Key Takeaways
[02:31] - How far the Pelicans are from winning a championship.
[04:34] - What Zion Williamson means to his team.
[08:33] - Future impact of the trade in the NBA on the Pelicans.
[11:19] - Scott's vision for the Pelicans in the future.
[16:24] - What Scott thinks about the Saints and their potential.
[19:24] - How Scott explains the Saints' failures during the Drew era.
[21:04] - Where Sean Payton is likely to go after this year.
[28:17] - In what direction will New Orleans go in the future?
Quotes [04:09] - "This season is about connecting Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, CJ McCollum, Willie Green, and David Griffin and seeing how much potential there is. Before you can start saying where's the championship window, you want to see how all these things work together when they're all together. Cause we had just seen much of that in the first 10 games of the season." ~ Scott Kushner [13:25] - "Whether or not the Pelicans will get incrementally better to fit that timeline is a question that no one can answer. But they have allowed themselves to say if this is the right group, they've got nothing but time to get it together, fail together in the playoffs, tweak what's right around the edges and then go out and try to win. And that is a rare thing." ~ Scott Kushner [20:39] - "It doesn't do you much good if you aren't willing to use the value you have." ~ Scott Kushner
Links
Scott Kushner on Twitter
NOLA
Polk and Kush Podcast
Hornets
Pelicans
CJ McCollum
Brandon Ingram
Zion Williamson
David Griffin
Ja Morant
NBA
Anthony Davis
Lakers
Dyson Daniels
Josh Hart
Larry Nance
Jrue Holiday
Chris Paul
Phoenix Suns
Golden State Warriors
Jose Alvarado
LeBron James
New Orleans Saints
Reggie Bush
Drew Brees
Sean Payton
Sean Canfield
Garrett Grayson
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
Chargers
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of a recession in recent months. While it is impossible to know for sure what the future holds, there are still silver linings to be found. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about how global investment managers view the market, how the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action, and the silver lining in today's economic climate.
Key Takeaways
[00:25] - An overview of the 2022 midterm elections.
[03:21] - Global investment managers' view of the market.
[06:21] - How the Federal Reserve is at the center of the market's action.
[10:51] - The outlook for recession among global investment companies.
[14:11] - How the economic slowdown affects tech companies.
Quotes [07:34] - "Just a reminder to people that whatever the message you receive from the Federal Reserve, I would not take that as gospel by any means. They are all just human beings trying to interpret data." ~ Doug Stokes [09:06] - "Even the people appointed to forecast are horrible at forecasting. There are billions of financial interactions daily. How do you forecast all of that? That's an exercise in futility." ~ Doug Stokes [15:21] - "It's not good to talk about an economic slowdown. The positive is that if you say one shoe falls after the other, we're on the last shoe under the HOPE (Housing-Orders-Profits-Employment) framework. And so, you would expect a rise in unemployment, the last piece of the puzzle for this cycle. Then you start on to new." ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight
BlackRock
Charles Schwab
Lloyd Blankfein
Goldman Sachs
Rocket Mortgage
Bank of America
Charlie Bilello
Michael Kantro
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Recent years have been tough on the economy. Many challenges have led to a slowdown in the global economy. Despite the negative impact of the economic slowdown, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Tough times don't last forever, and the economy will eventually recover. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about what financial experts have to say about inflation, the slowdown of today's economy, and how the global markets have been performing in the past weeks.
Key Takeaways
[01:45] - What financial experts have to say about inflation.
[05:28] - The slowdown of today's economy.
[11:21] - A decline in the growth rate of big tech companies.
[15:12] - An aspect of the economy that is positive.
[17:59] - A look at the scenarios facing Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
[20:29] - How the global markets are doing after 43 weeks.
[23:48] - The best thing people can do in today's market.
Quotes [05:00] - "We manage portfolios based on people's lifetime cash flow needs and build buffers between their equity portfolio and their expected living needs. You would never want to trade your retirement or your nest egg on what's happening in the world." ~ Greg Stokes [08:09] - "Regardless of where you look, it will be tough for people to buy homes at these rates." ~ Doug Stokes [20:51] - "The only things that have worked this year are energy and cash. It was the most hated asset class for the last 10 years." ~ Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes
Links
What To Do When You Know What Stocks Will Do Next
Jason Zweig
Lloyd Blankfein
Goldman Sachs
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Nick Timiraos
Bank of America
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The stock and bond markets have seen some wild swings over the past few weeks. This has caused large drawdowns in the stock and bond markets and a great deal of pain for international economies. While the increasing declines in the market may have a negative impact in the short run, they are likely to have a positive impact in the long run. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how people feel about the current state of the market, the increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets, and update on the economic situation around the world.
Key Takeaways
[01:14] - Some good news in the market today.
[03:18] - How people feel about the current state of the market.
[07:05] - The impact of market volatility on someone nearing or in retirement.
[08:31] - The increasing drawdowns in the stock and bond markets.
[12:36] - What Greg and Doug think about where we are in the economic cycle.
[15:15] - An update on the economic situation in big countries.
[19:50] - The impact of the U.S. economy on international economies.
Quotes [09:07] - "Besides the Great Depression, during which the stock market was down 90%, the bigger drawdowns that have historically happened in the U.S. stock market have been down 50%, 40%, etc. The bond market is not supposed to function like that from a volatility standpoint. But this year, the 20+ year treasury market is down negative 42%. That's unreal to think about." ~ Greg Stokes [11:07] - "As far as the bond market is down as much as it is simultaneously with the stock market, that's unprecedented." ~ Greg Stokes [17:33] - "When you have an economic downturn, at least historically, one way to combat it has been to cut taxes and spur economic growth." ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Michael Gayed
Charlie Bilello
Charles Schwab
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The stock market has been on a roller coaster ride this year, and unfortunately, it has mostly been going down. This has made a lot of people very anxious about their investments and future. Bonds have also been performing poorly, adding to the anxiety. How should investors respond to current market conditions? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about how stocks and bonds have performed poorly this year, how people react to today's market conditions, and how Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario.
Key Takeaways
[00:20] - Market performance for the past week.
[02:20] - How stocks and bonds are performing poorly this year.
[06:48] - How people react to today's poor market conditions.
[10:59] - Why today's market conditions aren't comparable to the 1970s.
[15:03] - The impact of higher mortgage rates on homeowners and renters.
[17:04] - How Mike Epstein's story makes sense from an Armageddon-type scenario.
[19:07] - Doug's thoughts on the wealth quote by Arthur Schopenhauer.
[20:41] - What Greg thinks is the most valuable asset.
Quotes [03:25] - "It's been a crummy year for stocks and bonds. The only thing that's worked this year has been cash and oil stocks, the things which people looked at negatively for the previous 10 years." ~ Greg Stokes [10:41] - "The market is a very good teacher and the lessons can be expensive." ~ Doug Stokes [19:33] - "My definition of wealth is time and freedom and the ability to choose what you want to do with your time and freedom. It's not necessarily the value of your portfolio, the amount of earnings, or the amount of material things you have." ~ Doug Stokes
Links
BlackRock
Ben Carlson
Getting Long-Term Bullish
Warren Buffet
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
A growing number of experts believe that a recession is looming on the horizon. This week, Greg and Doug look at the importance of being prepared for the dips while remaining focused on the brighter days to come.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Recent headlines on the global economy.
[06:01] - What surveys say about the economy and the market.
[11:17] - What analysts have to say about the current state of the market.
[14:27] - Insights into how bull markets and bear markets work.
[15:40] - The impact of high mortgage rates on the housing market.
[20:00] - What it takes to survive a possible recession.
Quotes [03:38] - "The markets are hoping that data provides the Fed an excuse to pivot or get more dovish and not continue down the path of raising rates. The jobs report that came out on Friday did the opposite." ~ Greg Stokes [06:56] - "The Federal Reserve is trying to push the economy into a recession, which means having corporate profit margins cut substantially, and corporate earnings cut down, leading to higher unemployment." ~ Doug Stokes [14:42] - "Bear markets are typically an elevator down, and bull markets are an escalator on the way back up. Meaning that typically bear markets happen pretty quickly, and then it slows as it's climbing a wall of worry from the standpoint of re-initiating another bull market." ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Jamie Dimon
J.P. Morgan
KPMG
Callie Cox
eToro
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The market has continued to be volatile over the last month. This situation has left many investors wondering what they can expect in the coming weeks and months. Despite speculation surrounding investment banks, the financial market, and the housing market, many experts believe there is potential growth in the long term. In this episode, Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes talk about the market performance over the last month, the speculations surrounding investment banks, and their outlook on the financial and housing markets.
Key Takeaways
[00:31] - Why September's market performance was not good.
[05:02] - Speculation surrounding investment banks.
[07:13] - How the economic volatility over the last three years has been brutal.
[09:58] - What makes today's market exciting.
[11:43] - What makes the U.S. fortunate compared to other countries.
[16:56] - Greg's outlook for the housing market.
[21:55] - What financial experts have to say about the current market situation.
Quotes [05:15] - "It's easy to be bearish at this point, and the people that are rewarded are the ones that are bullish when everybody else is bearish." ~ Doug Stokes [09:43] - "It's difficult to make buying decisions when there's so much uncertainty in the world and when the range of outcomes is so wide. I think that comes down to prudent portfolio and cash flow management." ~ Doug Stokes [09:58] - "As a young person, the exciting thing about the market today is the buying opportunity. If you're dollar cost averaging into your 401K plan, great. Your dollar cost averaging into lower and lower prices help with the accumulation of more and more wealth over time. But if you're reaching retirement age, the exciting component to your portfolio is that you can earn some interest on the bond side." ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Ben Carlson
Credit Suisse
Deutsche Bank
Warren Buffet
George Maroudas
J.P. Morgan
Bob Brinker
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Historically, leaders communicated with their employees in a transactional and hierarchical manner. However, these tactics no longer work in today's environment. The traditional, command-and-control leadership style is no longer as effective. What leadership techniques do effective leaders employ in the modern business and working environment? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Michelle Johnston, a management professor, executive coach, and leadership expert who serves as the Gaston Chair of Business at Loyola University New Orleans. Author of “The Seismic Shift in Leadership,” Michelle emphasizes the need for leaders to shift from a command-and-control leadership style to one focused on connection. Michelle talks with Doug and Greg about how leaders can get to the heart of their organizations, how human connection can drive better financial performance, innovation, and productivity, and what true connection is all about.
Key Takeaways
[00:54] - What Michelle's book, “The Seismic Shift in Leadership,” is about.
[02:47] - How leaders can get to the heart of their organizations.
[05:16] - How to move away from formal hierarchical leadership structures.
[09:23] - An example of a leadership style that can erode people's trust.
[12:15] - How human connection can drive better financial performance, innovation, and productivity.
[17:53] - What true connection means.
[21:39] - How to measure the effectiveness of a leader.
[25:35] - The role incentives play in retaining top talent.
[27:11] - The importance of purpose and personal growth in retaining high performers.
Quotes [02:49] - "Leaders who were truly getting to the highest levels in their organizations were leaders who were focusing on showing up and connecting with their people." ~ Michelle Johnston [04:21] - "You can't truly connect with others and get the best out of your team if you're trying to be somebody you're not or you're uncomfortable in your own skin. It starts with you." ~ Michelle Johnston [18:02] - "Connection is shared reciprocity. Communication in the old way was transactional, hierarchical, or do this. In connection, there's got to be an energy of reciprocity. I see you, you see me. So even though I'm the leader, I see you." ~ Michelle Johnston
Links
Michelle Johnston
Michelle Johnston LinkedIn
Loyola University New Orleans
The Seismic Shift in Leadership
Jack Welch
General Electric
Entergy
Qualcomm
Don McGuire
Salesforce
The Seismic Shift Podcast
Peter Ricchiuti
Pete November
Ochsner Health
Warner Thomas
Sutter Health
Dennis Lauscha
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees
Swin Cash
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Inflation is commonly discussed in terms of its impact on commodity prices. However, its effects go much deeper than that. Businesses, the stock market, and even interest rates are affected by it. As inflation ripples through the economy, what is the federal government doing to deal with this problem? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about inflation trends and their associated risks. They speak about the impact of inflation on commodities, businesses, and the stock market, the federal government's response to inflation, and how treasury risk premiums affect various asset classes.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Doug and Greg's market forecast for this week.
[04:04] - Trend in inflation and its associated risks.
[06:59] - How Doug and Greg design portfolios.
[08:47] - The impact of inflation on commodities and services.
[13:47] - The federal government's response to inflation.
[16:23] - How the risk premium to treasuries affects various asset classes today.
Quotes [04:19] - "There are a lot of components to the inflationary picture that seems to be slowing down. The risk is that the policymakers are making decisions from an interest rate standpoint with the analogy of the late 1970s when inflation existed for 15 years and wanted to nip it in the bud." ~ Greg Stokes [11:42] - "It's very difficult to be a business owner and a big participant in the global economy and manage a business with many variabilities." ~ Doug Stokes [13:27] - "There's tremendous volatility in all aspects of business and the same thing in the markets. Even though we have inflation in the 8% range, unemployment is low. Unemployment is 3.5%, so that's an interesting dichotomy of what's happening right now." ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Ken Fisher
Morgan Housel
Ben Carlson
How Much Do Interest Rates Matter to the Stock Market
Vanguard
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
For centuries, families have passed down their wealth from one generation to the next. However, with the modern-day challenges, the need for a more formalized approach to multi-generational wealth stewardship has never been greater. In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jason Baker, a former NFL punter who is now the CEO and Partner at Paterson Center. This organization helps individuals and organizations be very intentional about their strategy and performance. After going through a life plan with one of the best strategic planning facilitators, Jason found clarity in the next act in his life. Today, he got licensed to hold all the Paterson licensing in his private practice. Jason talks with Doug and Greg about how he transitioned from playing football to owning a consulting firm, what Paterson Center can offer clients, and his approach to creating a life plan for families with different dynamics.
Key Takeaways
[01:07] - A brief overview of Jason's NFL career.
[04:43] - How Jason transitioned from being an athlete to owning a consulting firm.
[06:18] - What Paterson Center can offer clients.
[08:09] - How LifePlan and StratOp work for families.
[13:11] - In what ways Paterson practices accountability for its strategies.
[16:59] - How Jason creates a life plan for families with different dynamics.
[21:48] - The timeline for creating a family constitution.
[26:07] - How Jason markets their services to attract new clients.
[28:27] - The type of family Paterson Center usually works with.
[33:27] - What Jason thinks is the most important role on an NFL team.
Quotes [14:31] - "It's our job to recognize where the family wants to go and what needs to happen to get there. Then we'll certainly embrace getting there and maintaining our accountability." ~ Jason Baker [27:03] - "Our goal is always to do the best work we can that somehow we will be a blessing to the organizations and families we work with." ~ Jason Baker [32:40] - "We love the opportunity to help people do what they want with what they've got and what they've been blessed with in the world. And I'm fortunate enough to have some pretty cool tools to do it." ~ Jason Baker
Links
Jason Baker on LinkedIn
Reggie Bush
Devin Hester
Paterson Center
Paterson LifePlan
StratOp | Paterson
Pete Richardson
McKinsey
Deloitte
New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Real estate has long been considered an attractive asset class by investors for several reasons. This investment offers many benefits, including high returns, stability, and inflation protection. With real estate investing being an excellent way to diversify portfolios and build wealth over time, what are some of the investment strategies that can take advantage of these opportunities? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Drew Pearson, the Managing Partner at Pearson Partners. Drew began his commercial real estate career at Latter & Blum in Baton Rouge in 2008. He moved to a boutique firm, Waters & Pettit, in 2011 and became a top-selling agent there within a few years. In 2015, Drew began to work at Promanas, where he served as head of acquisitions helping the firm to grow to over $250M of real estate asset value. Drew talks with Greg and Doug about his journey to becoming a real estate investor. A self-storage investor and developer himself, Drew speaks about why self-storage is an attractive asset class, how he builds teams to manage local and regional markets, and what his thoughts are on the next big thing on the real estate investing scene.
Key Takeaways
[01:07] - Drew's journey to becoming a real estate investor.
[05:39] - Why self-storage is an attractive asset class.
[10:33] - How Drew finds deals in secondary and tertiary markets.
[12:09] - What makes investing today different from the past.
[14:45] - Why team building is important from an operational perspective.
[17:28] - How Pearson Partners serves investors.
[22:06] - The next big thing in real estate investing.
[27:11] - Drew's thoughts about vacancies.
[29:39] - What makes real estate an attractive investment.
Quotes [06:25] - "The demand drivers for storage are death, divorce, and dislocation or moving. Those things happen in good times and in bad. Unlike an office tenant in a recession who needs to downsize his footprint, there is a need, regardless of economic times, for this storage type." ~ Drew Pearson [16:11] - "People are the gas to the race car, and investment properties are the race cars. They need people to operate them." ~ Drew Pearson [28:22] - "It's almost better to have a short-term lease in today's market. If the tenant's paying six bucks a foot and the market is now nine bucks a foot, it's beneficial to have a short-term lease as a landlord. We can restructure the lease or bring things back closer to market and get a better return." ~ Drew Pearson
Links
Drew Pearson on LinkedIn
Pearson Partners
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has grown in recent years as more investors are looking to put their money into companies that align with their values. While this investment can positively impact the world, some unforeseen consequences come with it, especially in a tight supply chain. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about the recent updates on markets and economies. Focusing on the impact of the increased price of energy, they speak about the result of Europe's shift towards renewables, the unforeseen consequences of ESG investing, and the risks associated with ESG investing in a tight supply chain.
Key Takeaways
[00:34] - Recent updates on markets and economies.
[04:46] - How the rising cost of electricity in Europe affects the global economy.
[08:36] - Doug's thoughts on international and domestic market returns.
[12:50] - Why investing in the US is still a better option.
[14:31] - ESG investing and its unforeseen consequences.
[18:58] - Why policymakers and investment committees need to revisit ESG guidelines.
[22:15] - Risks associated with ESG investing in a tight supply chain.
[24:07] - The impact of energy price increases on emerging economies.
Quotes [16:56] - "There are these unforeseen consequences for many of these ideas that sound good in theory, like shifting to renewables. But there are potential causes and effects, like national defense concerns and what Europe is going through right now." - Greg Stokes [18:24] - "The whole collective idea behind renewables is fabulous, but the idea of getting ahead of yourself from a policy perspective is not prudent." - Greg Stokes [22:15] - "In good times, ESG seems great because you're not sacrificing anything. But in a supply chain crunch when energy is scarce and commodity investment has been low for a long period, those that didn't fall for the policy of the day are the ones that come out on top." - Doug Stokes
Links
Charles Schwab
Liz Ann Sonders
Lawrence Hamtil
UBS
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The stock market is often seen as a leading indicator of economic activity, with movements in share prices reflecting changes in underlying conditions. For this reason, analysts closely watch stock markets for clues about future inflation trends. While inflation has been one of the most feared economic events, periods of high inflation have often been followed by bear market rallies. What does this phenomenon mean, and how does it impact investors? In this episode, Greg and Doug talk about inflation trends, the bright side of all of the issues facing the U.S. and the international community, and the importance of time and quality assets in investing.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Recent trends in commodity prices.
[01:50] - Inflation trends, CPI, and the price-earnings ratio.
[06:12] - How U.S. stocks outperform international stocks.
[08:39] - The bright side to all issues facing the U.S. and the international community.
[13:49] - The importance of time in investing.
[15:15] - How real estate investing is similar to stock investing.
Quotes [03:55] - "Inflation has peaked and is coming down. Anything can happen in markets, but from a fair valuation perspective, we're at the average level currently." - Doug Stokes [10:00] - "If we look at every single bear market rally since 1929 and look at the best performance during that bear market before it declined even further, 2022 would be the absolute best." - Doug Stokes [21:04] - "Having these emotional swings based on the political news of the day and general market sentiment is one of the worst things you can do for your portfolio decision-making." - Doug Stokes
Links
Crestmont Investments
JP Morgan
Jurrien Timmer
Fidelity Investments
Nautilus Capital
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
What are the narratives in the market? Bullish or bearish? This is a question that is always on the mind of investors. The stock market is constantly bombarding investors with news, analysis, and commentary, and it can be overwhelming to try to make sense of it all. However, looking at the market narratives from a different perspective can give you a better understanding of what is happening in the market. In today's episode, Greg and Doug debunk market myths. They explore the market narratives through a different lens by looking at the news, analyst opinions, and price action.
Key Takeaways
[02:15] - How the markets have rebounded recently.
[06:16] - How the markets are doing better today than they have ever been.
[08:57] - Why the current mortgage rate is unpleasant for homebuyers.
[13:37] - What an inverted yield curve means from a market perspective.
[18:34] - Why investing early in life is important.
Quotes [06:57] - "Things are better now than they've ever been. From a short-term perspective, things have been looking a lot better. Inflation seems to have chilled out, and the latest inflation numbers were flat monthly." - Greg Stokes [07:51] - "Consumers are tapping into savings to fight inflation. On top of that, debt levels and delinquencies are rising." - Doug Stokes [15:23] - "Historically, a yield curve leads to a recession. And a recession is always accompanied by a negative market experience." - Doug Stokes [21:20] - "Invest early, invest often, be aggressive, and stick with the plan. If you do that for many decades, it will work out in your favor." - Greg Stokes
Links
You Can Make Any Piece of Data Look Bad If You Try
Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting
Sam Ro
Brian Portnoy
Goldman Sachs
Santiago Capital
Vanguard
Fidelity Investments
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Jamaul Ford, a serial entrepreneur in New Orleans who runs High Level Speech and Hearing Center with his wife, Dr. Lana Joseph-Ford, talks with Greg and Doug about launching a product-based business alongside a service-based venture, the R&D behind Jamaul and Lana’s product Jrumz, why culture is invaluable within big and small operations, and the challenges and opportunities associated with launching a business in New Orleans.
Key Takeaways
[00:23] - A brief introduction to Jamaul.
[00:46] - How High Level Speech and Hearing Center came to fruition.
[04:28] - What the High Level Speech & Hearing Center looks like today.
[06:35] - Why Jamaul and Lana developed Jrumz.
[10:27] - Why Jrumz has a better sound quality than AirPods.
[11:55] - What challenges Jamaul and Lana overcame starting their business versus launching a consumer products company.
[16:02] - How to transition from direct-to-consumer to retail outlets and distribution.
[17:55] - The R&D process behind Jrumz.
[20:54] - What Jamaul is developing at Joseph Ford Enterprises.
[23:03] - How Jamaul, Doug, and Greg have experienced running a business in New Orleans and how they believe New Orleans can prosper.
Quotes [06:55] - “Most people don’t know this: as an entrepreneur, what we are, we are problem solvers, we typically identify what the problem is and try to come up with a solution.” ~ Jamaul Ford [15:21] - “Being product-based is really about building community. And when you’re trying to build community, it’s more or less like building people [who] are zealots of your product that are going to go out and tell other people. As much marketing, Facebook advertisement, these things you can do, still word of mouth is always going to be the thing that’s really going to push your product to the next level.” ~ Jamaul Ford [23:32] - “When it comes to building businesses in New Orleans, I really believe that you have to know the city, you have to know the needs of the city, know the people of the city, to know what to provide for the people of the city.” ~ Jamaul Ford [24:04] - “I do believe personally that it is important to master something in New Orleans and then transition it to the masses.” ~ Jamaul Ford
Links
Jamaul Ford
Dr. Lana Ford
High Level Speech & Hearing Center
Jrumz Ear Wear
Nicholls State University
Xavier University
Waffle House
East Jefferson General Hospital
Washington University in St. Louis
AirPods
Target
Best Buy
Walmart
Walt Disney World
Covington
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, Doug and Greg discuss the confusing state of today’s economy, their predictions for economic growth and recovery years down the line, how the Feds can successfully avoid an economic recession, which parts of today’s inflation might stick around, and what you can control financially in a time of mass financial uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
[00:22] - What Greg’s thoughts are on Lisbon, Portugal vs. Madrid living.
[03:55] - Are we in a recession or not?
[08:31] - What the economy may look like one year from today.
[13:24] - How to translate recent earnings reports.
Quotes [04:45] - “The economy and the markets are two distinct things. The economy might be in a situation where it’s in a recession but the markets typically are forward-looking.” ~ Greg Stokes [15:20] - “If [the Feds] can somehow figure out a way to have a soft landing, which is what they’re trying to do by slowing down the economy, slowing down spending without causing a recession, I think that would be a pretty admirable result.” ~ Greg Stokes [19:51] - “If you’re not confused about what’s going on in the economy right now, then you really don’t know anything about economics is a way to think about it. Because this is a completely unprecedented period.” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Spending, Statistics, and Why Midterms Matter
Mortgage News Daily
J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets
Walmart Q22 Earnings
Amazon Q22 Earnings
Bill Ackman
Jerome Powell
The Wall Street Journal
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, Doug and Greg discuss how consumers and big business are responding to sky-high inflation, which income bracket is struggling the hardest and which brands are selling out faster, the bright side to a recession in vibes, why midterms matter, and why despite it all, the market is up.
Key Takeaways
[00:16] - What inflation means for consumer spending and where prices have (surprisingly) gone down.
[05:29] - Why despite the constant bad news, the market is looking up.
[15:12] - A guessing game for Greg.
[19:54] - Why midterm years matter.
Quotes [10:00] - “Things are bad, but the market ebbs and flows and generally overcorrects on the downside and overcorrects on the upside, and people that stick with a game plan end up working out.” ~ Doug Stokes [10:16] - “One of our clients told me one time that things are never as good or as bad as they seem. And you’re right, things have seemed very bad lately.” ~ Greg Stokes [13:39] - “I’m optimistic on the future and I think that if you extend your time or horizon long enough and if you look at prior data after the declines that we’ve seen recently, usually it’s a setup for a positive outlook going forward.” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers
The Upper Middle Class is Getting Squeezed
Busch Light
Keystone Light
Walmart
WCI Shanghai To Los Angeles Shipping Index
Understanding America’s History and Modern Markets
AT&T Quarterly Earnings Report
BlackRock July 2022 Highlights
Consumer Confidence Falls Again in June
FiveThirtyEight
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Pelicans
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, Richard Chen talks with Doug and Greg Stokes about overcoming obstacles and becoming a successful attorney, what the ultimate value-add is for both Rich and the advisors he serves, what prompted Rich to launch his own firm, and how Rich experiences life to the fullest without eyesight.
Key Takeaways
[01:12] - A brief introduction to Rich.
[03:48] - Rich’s journey with sight.
[04:44] - How Rich operates a law firm without sight.
[06:15] - How Rich remained competitive in school and his field despite physical disadvantages.
[07:50] - What life is like in the Azores.
[08:35] - Where Rich likes to travel and his day-to-day rec routine.
[10:32] - A typical day in the life of Rich Chen.
[11:58] - Why Rich launched his own firm.
[13:54] - How Rich perceives natural beauty without physical sight.
[16:03] - What country transformed Rich’s perspective.
[17:36] - What values are most important to Rich.
Quotes [03:34] - “It’s a real privilege to be able to serve RIAs and to really help them grow their business.” ~ Richard Chen [07:11] - “To this day I can’t recall ever thinking, ‘I can’t do this.’” ~ Richard Chen [15:42] - “Life is too short to focus on what you can’t do and what you can’t experience. There are so many things out there to experience that it’s better just to look forward to what you can do and the possibilities out there.” ~ Richard Chen [20:11] - “Humility is so important because there’s always something we can learn from everybody. I always try to take that attitude.”~ Richard Chen
Links
Richard Chen
Richard L. Chen PLLC
Text-to-speech output
Creating Financial and Humanitarian Change with Jonathan Shafer
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, Doug Stokes and Greg Stokes discuss the state of corporate America, why stock-based investors should treat dividends like rent, the fluctuation of global currency, and why the Federal Reserve is stoking your recession-based fears.
Key Takeaways
[00:31] - What to make of the dividends increase per share versus price increase per share.
[05:15] - What the current housing market means for a potential recession.
[08:42] - Why it feels like a recession is approaching.
[11:39] - The implications, opportunities, and root causes of the decline in value of European currency.
Quotes [02:06] - “If you were a real estate investor, even though the value of your property was down you probably didn’t know it. If your rents were up 14% over the last twelve months – you wouldn’t really care what the actual value of the property was. The same thing should apply to stock-based investing. In the case of dividends appreciating by 14%, even though the value has fluctuated, and fluctuated negatively, over the last twelve months, your ‘rents’ or your dividends are up 14%. ” ~ Greg Stokes [04:45] - “In essence, if you buy in great companies that have pricing power and are able to pass through increased costs to their customers and then increase the dividends paid to you, that’s something to treat like a piece of property and collect your rents, your increased rents, year over year.” ~ Doug Stokes [11:29] - “Whether there’s a recession or not, it seems like the best place to be is in the U.S. markets currently. We’re actually seeing that in currency movements.” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Charlie Bilello
Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic (Redfin)
The Organic Food Hoax (Hoover Institution)
Le Figaro
Lagniappe: Understanding Argentinian Markets with Santiago Solanet
Fidelity
Charles Schwab
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
This week, Doug Stokes and Greg Stokes discuss the unique and successful American experiment, what’s going on with the U.S. housing market, when inflation will eventually end, and what they believe is an even bigger issue than inflation itself.
Key Takeaways
[00:47] - What the American experiment (and America itself) means to Greg and Doug.
[10:51] - The state of the U.S. housing market.
[16:15] - What Doug believes inflation will look like one to two years from now.
[18:48] - When will this bear market end?
[21:07] - What’s priced into the market, what the market believes will happen, and what Greg thinks will actually happen coming out of this period.
Quotes [13:18] - “The last major recession was a housing-led recession and a housing crisis which led to a global financial crisis. And I think people are looking for the same signs of cracks in the system in housing and I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. I think this is probably a manufactured slowdown in housing.” ~ Doug Stokes [17:29] “I really don’t see high inflation for long periods of time. I’m not considering that as a high probability outcome although it could be the case. I think the more scary situation is that the federal reserve overshoots its raising rates to the point where it pushes the economy into a recession.” ~ Doug Stokes [18:55] ~ “The comforting thing to me is that it will eventually end. This market will eventually turn into a bull market and I think that there are some psychological aspects to it as well that I think are promising. But also from just a historical timing standpoint, the average bear market lasts about six months.” ~ Greg Stokes
Links Bill McBride
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In 2008, as a recession raged on in America, Jonathan Shafer believed it was time to make a difference elsewhere. After meeting a family searching for someone to launch an investment strategy company in West Africa, Jonathan jumped on the opportunity. Planning to be in Africa for only one year, Jonathan and his family ended up staying for seven years. Despite its challenges, Jonathan saw tremendous opportunity in Africa, both financially and through humanitarian work. Given that 600 million people in Africa don’t have access to power, investing in renewable energy became Jonathan’s primary focus, creating flourishing financial returns as well as a powerful impact on the lives of native civilians. Today, Jonathan’s efforts in Africa total more than $215 million of invested capital, and include ventures such as Fortis Green Renewables, a firm investing in renewable energy assets throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, and CommonGood Capital, a financial services company focused on global values-based investments. In this episode, Jonathan talks with Doug and Greg about why Africa has incredible opportunities for both financial investments and powerful humanitarian change, the impact alternative power sources can have on the quality of life in Africa, the risks of developing hydropower in Africa versus elsewhere, and what life is like in Kigali, Rwanda.
Key Takeaways
[01:13] - Why Jonathan and his family moved to Rwanda.
[06:53] - What it’s like to live in Rwanda.
[10:22] - How Kigali’s international reputation is evolving.
[11:58] - The mission behind Fortis Green Renewables.
[15:36] - What power source Jonathan focuses on.
[19:38] - How the risks of developing hydropower in Africa differ from the risks of developing renewable energy elsewhere.
[21:52] - How bureaucratic obstacles differ in Africa versus the United States.
[25:38] - How Jonathan considers potential contract disputes.
[29:31] - What major themes and investment opportunities exist in Africa besides power.
[34:32] - The altruistic benefits of investing in power across developing regions.
[39:06] - What the return difference is between infrastructure investment projects in Rwanda versus the United States.
[40:37] - What visitors should see in Rwanda.
Quotes [04:05] - “It was really this desire back in 2008 to use my skill set to make a difference in the world. How do I use the talents that I have and the skills that I’ve acquired to not just go build orphanages and not just go build schools, but how do we use business as a tool to really make an impact on people’s lives?” ~ Jonathan Shafer [32:43] - “When we look at the world, when we look at emerging markets in terms of where do we think the most potential for long-term growth is, we look at Africa. I think the challenge is you have to pick those segments of the market at the right time.” ~ Jonathan Shafer [34:48] - “I have very little, let’s just say no interest, in making money for the sake of making money. Money is important. Money matters. But, for me personally, I only want to be involved with things that a) make money, that’s a given, but then have the potential to have a positive impact on people’s lives.” ~ Jonathan Shafer
Links
Jonathan Shafer
Fotis Green Renewables
CommonGood Capital
Yale School of Management
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Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
The happiness and contentment we feel surrounding money doesn’t end with the number in our bank account. Take it from Brian Portnoy, founder of Shaping Wealth, a financial wellness company that helps clients make smarter financial moves. Brian understands the psychology behind financial decisions as much as he does the strategy behind investment. For instance, as human beings, we instinctively compare ourselves to others, seeking comfort in status and discomfort when our social media is flooded with 18-year-old billionaires rich off crypto. But how can we learn to mute the comparison triggers all around us? And why do growth-focused goals keep us grounded? Brian talks with Doug and Greg about navigating the comparison landscape, why money is still taboo, why unlimited freedom has led to increased paralysis, and the difference between being rich and being wealthy.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - An introduction to Brian.
[01:11] - Why Brian believes money is a taboo subject.
[02:32] - Does insecurity around discussing money correlate with general financial insecurity?
[04:27] - Why social media has decreased society’s contentment surrounding their finances.
[07:52] - The dangers of comparison and Brian’s perspective on differing financial priorities amongst generations.
[12:04] - How Brian approaches goal-setting and disciplined progress.
[19:23] - The power of purpose.
[21:31] - How to live a meaningful life and spend accordingly.
[26:28] - How investors can stay grounded amidst a volatile world and a volatile market.
Quotes [06:12] - “There’s a quote I love from J.P. Morgan, the original John Pierpont Morgan from whatever it was 100 years ago, where he said, ‘Nothing corrupts your financial judgment more than the sight of your neighbor getting rich.’ It wasn’t that long ago that your neighbor was the guy across the street. Now your neighbor is every person on Facebook and TikTok and Snap and LinkedIn and Twitter. Everybody is everybody’s neighbor and we’re going a little bit bonkers with it.” ~ @brianportnoy [16:26] - “What goals do from a negative perspective is they tee us up for emotional disappointment. Because no matter how good, or frankly how bad, a particular outcome is, we tend to revert to type, and then we say, ‘what’s next?’ Because we are foundationally growth-oriented creatures. And wherever we get, we want to get further.” ~ @brianportnoy [22:21] - “I think what anyone can do to figure out where money fits into a meaningful life and have those goals be more emotionally resonant, is to think about purpose, is to think about meaning.” ~ @brianportnoy
Links
Brian Portnoy
Shaping Wealth
The Geometry of Wealth
The Investor’s Paradox
Alliance for Decision Education
Growth Without Goals by Patrick O’Shaughnessy
Los Angeles Lakers
Lebron James
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
After spending years going through a tough academic program, one dissertation away from achieving a degree, Wes Gray chose to take a step back and join the Marine Corps. Following five years of service, Wes finished his degree at The University of Chicago, studying under the acclaimed Eugene Fama. While working as a professor, a cold call from a billionaire in New York prompted Wes to begin moonlighting as an internal due diligence agent. That decision to take on a second job became his inspiration for Alpha Architect – an asset management firm committed to empowering investors through education. In this episode, Wes talks with Doug and Greg about why Alpha Architect is abnormal, the method to their madness, how Wes challenged Eugene Fama (and nearly won), how Alpha Architect is responding to today’s volatile markets, and what the future looks like for value investors.
Key Takeaways
[01:24] - How Wes transitioned from professor to founder of Alpha Architect.
[04:50] - Why Wes’ studies led him to be more of a quant than a discretionary investor.
[14:00] - Has a rise in awareness diluted investors’ ability to obtain Alpha?
[19:25] - How Wes explains the recent market volatility.
[22:40] - How Alpha Architect responds to “flows” and market volatility.
[26:23] - How Alpha Architect remains tax-efficient.
[29:37] - What Wes believes the future looks like for value investors.
Quotes [27:14] - “One of the problems with the financial services industry is, the best idea, the best strategy in the world, can always be ruined by fees and taxes. And so, you can have a lot of excess returns, but if you give it all up in fees and taxes, what was the point?” ~ Wes Gray [31:08] - “No matter how you cut it, the valuation of value stocks is the cheapest it’s ever been relative to the valuation of the market or gross stocks more particularly. And so the problem is timing. I have to survive the potential issue of, I go buy value stocks and then all the sudden all the crazy maniac stocks beat me and crush my soul by ten percent a year for the next ten years again.” ~ Wes Gray [31:57] - “The problem is, if there is a risk that you give up on fundamentals and the weighing machine in the short run, that means you will not get to extract the benefits of the long run. And I always tell people, you really need to sit down and think about your own brain psychology, and if you can’t deal with the heat in the kitchen, get out of the kitchen and just go buy the Vanguard fund.” ~ Wes Gray
Links
Wes Gray
Alpha Architect
Eugene Fama
The University of Chicago
Drexel University
Embedded
Quantitative Value
DIY Financial Advisor
Quantitative Momentum
Warren Buffett
Robinhood
Vanguard
iShares
Seth Klarman
Tesla
BlackRock
Cliff Asness: Still Crazy After All This YTD
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
It’s no secret that cryptocurrency has been a trending point of contention for financial experts and the general public. But is it worth the hype or a bubble waiting to burst? David Chase of Crescent City Capital has become an expert on the subject. But David’s desire to explore crypto was not for the sake of hopping on a fintech fad. Spending his early career learning the nuances of central bank policy, David had a hunch there was a better way to regulate policy. After diving into the subject, cryptocurrency became that solution. So after a year of exclusively trading crypto, David launched Crescent City Capital with his partner Hunter Metcalf. The firm’s goal is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible and David’s personal belief is that crypto is not only here to stay, but is fundamentally irreplaceable. In this episode, David talks with Doug and Greg about why crypto solves the problems most currencies encounter, the future of Bitcoin and blockchain technology, how anyone can and should invest in crypto, and the potential life-saving impact of digital currency.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - An introduction to David and his background.
[04:55] - Bitcoin’s solution to the flaws in centralized policy, and what mining cryptocurrency actually means.
[08:18] - Why it’s valuable to invest in Bitcoin and the difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
[10:58] - What makes Bitcoin valuable.
[11:48] - Why Bitcoin is an inflationary hedge.
[14:19] - How Bitcoin is invaluable in moments of political instability.
[18:00] - Why David believes Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere.
[20:17] - The future of blockchain technology.
[25:43] - What stablecoins are and the difference between collateralized and arithmetic stablecoins.
[34:17] - Where David believes Bitcoin is headed.
Quotes [19:55] - “I don’t see any of the top 10s going away, I certainly don’t see Bitcoin going away unless there’s this onset of some kind of one world central bank currency that could potentially replace it. But even then it’s not the same, it’s not disinflationary. Any central bank currency is going to have to be inflationary.” ~ David Chase [21:27] - “We listen to three or four pitches a day. And I can tell you, the smartest minds in the world are moving toward blockchain development.” ~ David Chase [33:58] - “Until Bitcoin or the total asset class valuation reaches a point, kind of the equivalent of gold or even silver, you’re going to have massive manipulation, massive volatility. I think that scares a lot of people away. But with volatility comes opportunity.” ~ David Chase
Links
David Chase
Crescent City Capital
Bitcoin
Gelber Group
Coinbase
Ethereum
Whitecoin
Dash
Hunter Metcalf
Litecoin
Solana
Acacia Digital Holdings
RareMint
Terra Luna
Tether
Circle USD Coin
Dogecoin
Shiba Token
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Sometimes, the best places to invest are the places no one’s looking. Ian Bezek has become an expert on under-the-radar places to spend his time and invest his money. Having spent the last eight years living in South and Latin American countries, he’s an advocate for exploring countries that cost less for a higher quality of life. Not to mention, he’s diving headfirst into the international markets and is here to share his tips for investing overseas. Rather than looking where everyone else is (literally), Ian focuses on compounding businesses, companies constantly growing their earnings, companies with nearly irreplaceable assets, and businesses becoming leaders in a “boring” sector. He values companies with exit ramps and hand railings over those with high-speed glass elevators and no red exit sign in sight. His stocks may not be the sexiest, but Ian’s peace of mind and the performance of his portfolio remain intact. In this episode, Ian talks with Doug and Greg about his perspective on the U.S. versus Latin American markets, his philosophy on the ESG score, when Ian predicts we’ll see market revisions in the U.S., tips for exploring life in Colombia, and the surprising sector Ian believes is this decade’s top growth industry.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - An introduction to this episode and Ian Bezek.
[01:34] - Ian’s perspective on the markets post-2020.
[03:14] - How Ian describes today’s markets in comparison to the previous tech bust in 2000.
[05:30] - When Ian believes market revisions will happen.
[06:41] - What industries and sectors Ian focuses on.
[09:36] - How the perception of the companies Ian invests in has shifted over the years.
[10:36] - What Ian thinks is the best growth industry this decade and what he’s keeping an eye on as the 2020s continue to evolve.
[13:07] - Why Ian believes EVs are overblown and where you can be investing instead.
[15:15] - Ian's experience living in Latin and South America and why low-cost and high-quality living areas are fantastic (and feasible) options.
[17:08] - What the quality of life is like in Columbia.
[18:56] - How Ian views Latin America and Columbia from an investment perspective.
[21:18] - What’s worth the investment in Latin and South American countries.
[26:27] - How ESG metrics impact Ian’s investment choices.
[30:01] - What Ian loves to do in Columbia.
Quotes [21:52] - “I’d say one thing that a lot of people should pay more attention to are the Mexican companies because you can find companies that are much less cyclical there, like the airports for example.” ~ @irbezek [24:40] - “I do think that the Latin American markets should outperform. In particular, Mexico’s kind of the one I’ve planted my flag on because that’s a much broader market that is not just tied to commodities. So I think investors will rediscover that one.” ~ @irbezek
Links
Ian Bezek
Seeking Alpha
Ian’s Insider Corner
Kerrisdale Capital Management LLC
Echo Labs
Bancolombia
Pacifico Airport
Rotoplas
Sureste Airport
Microsoft
Yahoo
Cisco
Lucent
Peloton
Netflix
Adobe
Alphabet
Meta
Amazon
Walmart
Costco
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Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
At the heart of Il San Pietro in Positano, one of Italy’s – and the world’s – finest hotels, is a family business with a fascinating story. Il San Pietro was built by Carlino Cinque when Positano was a simple fishing village. Carlino’s family believed him crazy for pursuing a life outside their home and even had Carlino impeached for his entrepreneurial aspirations. Luckily Carlino overcame obstacles and his grand hotel came to fruition. Today, Vito Cinque co-owns Il San Pietro with his brother Carlo, the third generation to take the reins and help their family’s legacy live on. The hotel has become an architectural feat – existing on the precipice of one of Positano’s infamous cliffs. Each room has a view and a beautiful terrace. While a room is a luxury, the staff become like family and your stay is always a consistent, trip-defining experience. But there’s an art to maintaining luxury with family by your side. Greg and Doug talk with Vito about transforming the Il San Pietro into a world-renowned five-star hotel alongside his brother Carlo, his strategy for remaining competitive as the years go on, how Vito led his staff through COVID-19, plus the key reason Vito believes Il San Pietro has remained a family-owned worldly success.
Key Takeaways
[00:54] - An introduction to Vito and Il San Pietro.
[04:17] - The first travelers to the Il San Pietro hotel.
[05:48] - The construction of Il San Pietro’s unbelievable elevator.
[07:25] - What prompted Vito’s Great Uncle to take the risk and move forward with building a hotel.
[09:45] - How the hotel’s construction developed over time.
[11:22] - How Vito considers the five-star offering he’s providing to clients.
[16:26] - How Vito distinguishes Il San Pietro’s food and beverage services from competitors.
[20:15] - How Vito managed the challenges of the pandemic.
[25:55] - What Vito does to ensure guest loyalty and the importance of a strong team.
[29:34] - What visitors should experience on the Amalfi Coast.
[34:02] - Vito’s wine philosophy.
Quotes [08:58] - “This is what we want clients to understand: that when your family has a unique experience, you cannot put this sort of experience in a box. It’s not something that has been planned. It’s like, you find the right plant in the right spot and the plant grows perfectly.” ~ Vito Cinque [12:47] - “Being in a family business, the time for making a decision is very fast, as long as you divide your duties. Me and my brother have two different backgrounds. We take care of two different parts of the hotel. So I run the place, I am the front office person, and he’s the back office guy. He looks at the numbers and I produce.” ~ Vito Cinque [23:45] - “The attitude of the clients has totally changed now. They want to go where they don’t have surprises. They want a place to be consistent. Now the price is not an issue as long as you get what you were expecting.” ~ Vito Cinque
Links
Vito Cinque
Il San Pietro
Zass Restaurant
Bee Chic
The Il San Pietro Gardens
Anish Kapoor
Jeff Koons
William Kentridge
Bordeaux
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
What would you do with a family fortune? Taking a hard look at the downfall of the Vanderbilt dynasty tells us a few things about wealth, purpose, and the importance of a trusted financial advisor. History can tell us what to expect during unpredictable global events, how bear markets typically come to a close, and the surprising similarity between institutional and retail investors. This week, Doug and Greg why wealth alone won’t buy happiness, what the market corrections of the past mean for today’s turbulent fluctuations, and why “professional” investors aren’t immune to emotional influence.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - Money lessons from the Vanderbilt curse.
[11:19] - What a history of market corrections should mean for your perspective on an upcoming bear market.
[15:48] - How a bear market may end.
[20:13] - Actively managed strategies versus index-type strategies.
Quotes [08:14] - “I just think that lack of purpose and lack of direction leads to lack of wealth. So what does money really do? Money, if you’ve at least been a good steward of capital, provides you with flexibility and time.” ~ Doug Stokes [15:28] - “That’s the real issue — trying to time the market and waiting for the dust to settle. Our human nature does not want to buy when we think that there is a risk of loss around the corner and there’s been a recent risk of loss. And so the whole involving of human emotions and investments is a really bad combination.” ~ Greg Stokes [24:05] - “The presumption is that investment professionals, investment managers are better at that sort of emotional aspect and timing the market than a retail investor but this basically debunks that whole theory. And it is absolutely true that people, in general, retail investors or institutional investors, are not good at beating the market.” ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Morgan Housel
Breakers Estate
Biltmore Estate
Anderson Cooper
Elon Musk
Tesla
Bill Gates
Our Perspective on April’s Return to Rocky Markets
Gamestop
Peloton
Dogecoin
Cathie Wood
Fizz
AMC
‘Past performance is no guarantee of future results,’ charted
SPIVA Study: Percentage of actively managed funds that outperform benchmarks
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Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
While times may feel unsteady and unpredictable, if you take a look through history, you’ll see these very market fluctuations repeated, time and time again. The tricky part is convincing your psyche to invest during a downtime when the market’s on sale. So how can you override your human instinct to hoard cash in a downturn? And when will there be resources available to prevent ourselves from acting on less than financially favorable inclinations? This week, Doug and Greg discuss their point of view on today’s crazy markets, the long-term implications of rising interest rates, why it’s best to avoid anxiety over unpredictability, and how to retrain your psyche to make smarter financial decisions.
Key Takeaways
[00:17] - An intro to this episode, the joys of family vacations, and Doug’s guide to wine tasting in Sonoma.
[09:07] - Why New Orleans is a great place to be.
[13:10] - How Greg and Doug view today's markets, who can best take advantage of the volatility, and how to remove psychological blocks and invest in a downturn.
[21:16] - How Verdad Capital and others are forcibly encouraging investors to buy-in when a crisis hits.
[25:32] - Greg and Doug’s closing thoughts.
Quotes [14:13] - “Our job really as portfolio managers and as advisors is to try to put context in these types of situations for clients that these are normal types of market events. Historically, if you look at the stock market from 1980 to present you get an intra-year decline.” ~ Greg Stokes [17:50] - “The rise in interest rates has afforded people the ability to not be as aggressive as they had to be maybe last year or the year before to achieve a reasonable rate of return.” ~ Doug Stokes [20:02] - “The sort of psychological issue is that when things go on sale in the stock and bond markets, it’s really hard to take advantage of that because the human aspect of investing is that things are going to continue to get worse, which they might, but it really is a good opportunity if you look at it through the lens of the long-term, you try to separate your natural psychology from the situation.” ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Farmstead Restaurant
Ledson Winery & Vineyards
Castello di Amorosa
Gundlach Bundschu
Zichichi Wines
Devin Booker
French Quarter Fest
Zurich Classic
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Jazz Fest
Hogs For The Cause
Mr. John’s Steakhouse
The French Laundry
S&P 500 Intra-year Declines and Total Returns 1980 to 2021: Chart
Nick Murray
Verdad
Meb Faber
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Bull or bear? Always the question and (almost) always difficult to answer. Especially in 2022. Between the Russia-Ukraine invasion, rising interest rates, and spiked inflation, the markets have been up and down. And it’s incredibly difficult to take a hint from what’s happening when deciding whether to invest or play it safe. Given today’s turmoil, it’s important to consider what’s worked in crisis markets of the past and what indicators signal it’s time to “go long” with your investments. CNN, Vanguard, and BlackRock have different ideas on where things are headed, short-term and long-term. But is it always best to trust the investor experts? And if so, which experts should you trust? This week, Doug and Greg discuss what rising fear and uncertainty mean for today’s tricky markets, why now is the best time to look overseas for property purchases, how to manage rising inflation, and why the best investors don’t always dish out the best financial advice.
Key Takeaways
[00:18] - Why a rise in general fear is a contrarian indicator for today’s financial markets.
[09:34] - Why it’s important to remain cautious about rising inflation.
[11:48] - How the markets have evolved and what the experts think about prospective returns.
[16:54] - Why now is the best time to explore international real estate.
[21:30] - Why rising interest rates are a positive thing for investors.
Quotes [02:48] - “It’s counterintuitive to buy when there’s fear and panic, but that really is the best time to buy if you look at history.” ~ Greg Stokes [06:13] - “Generally speaking, being a human being is not something that helps you in terms of emotions from an investment standpoint. Typically, if you look back at history, if the crowd is doing something, either buying or selling at a high clip, it’s usually a contrarian indicator one way or another.” ~ Greg Stokes [12:39] - “It’s not really a valuation-driven sentiment change in terms of just general markets. I think rising interest rates, rising inflation is really the concern here while a year ago it was more about, can companies really grow into the valuations they’re receiving?” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index
When Fear Runs High, Time To Buy?
Charlie Bilello
Crisis Investing: How To Maximize Returns During Market Panics
Ken Fisher
Always Buy High Uncertainty. Certainty In the Stock Market Is Very Expensive.
Vanguard Market Perspectives: February 2022
BlackRock Capital Market Assumptions
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Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Despite dealing with the aftermath of a global pandemic, an unpredictable stock market, and record-breaking inflation, life in 2022 may not be as bad as you think it is. 150 years ago, the richest people in America didn’t have easy access to basic commodities like air conditioning and ice, not to mention apps that deliver food and streaming services playing everything you can imagine. Rising interest rates, higher mortgage payments, and a low inventory can make it feel like a crazy time to be buying a house right now. But real estate has more value than just a percentage point and, like all major decisions in life, there are several factors at play when deciding to buy a home. This week, Doug and Greg discuss why it’s easier to stay optimistic than you might think, the best way to manage client expectations regardless of the times we’re living in, and why rising interest rates don’t necessarily throw a wrench in your real estate plans.
Key Takeaways
[00:59] - Why there’s a lot to be optimistic about and the key to managing expectations in the stock market and in life.
[10:18] - How the rise of interest rates and mortgage payments will impact real estate.
[23:33] - Who Doug and Greg bet on at the Masters.
Quotes [09:27] - “The last thing that I would want to do is plan on some historical rate of return that makes the numbers look fabulous and then way undershoot that, for one reason or another. I think it’s really good from a psychological standpoint to maintain those reasonable expectations that returns are going to be more muted in the future and if you beat them then that’s great.” ~ Greg Stokes [10:06] - “You could end up in the same exact place, but if you have the expectations of higher outcomes at the outset then you’re disappointed versus ecstatic.” ~ Doug Stokes [12:40] - “I think we’re in a situation where theoretically we could have a rise in mortgage rates like we’re experiencing in the first half of 2022, coinciding with either a steady price of homes or even a continued increase of the value of homes, which would be extremely interesting.” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Surprise, Shock, and Uncertainty
Ten Global Trends Every Smart Person Should Know: And Many Others You Will Find Interesting
Growth Without Goals
Can Home Prices and Interest Rates Soar at the Same Time?
The increase in 30-year fixed mortgage rates
Caesars Sportsbook
Tiger Woods
Jon Rahm
Sergio Garcia
Bryson DeChambeau
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Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
If the past few months have reminded us of anything, it’s that market volatility is constant and unpredictable. With the spread of information accelerating faster than ever, global volatility now matches that of the market in (seemingly) real-time. So it’s no surprise that such upheaval takes a toll on our psyche as investors. But if there’s one thing we can predict, it’s that volatility isn’t going anywhere and we have to prepare for it, financially and mentally. Although it sounds like an oxymoron, there are ways to prepare for the unpredictable. And there are ways to protect yourself psychologically, even if those protections go against popular financial advice. This week, Doug and Greg discuss how to combat the psychological strain of volatile markets, why the market reacts the way it does to world disaster, and what the yield curve tells us about a recession in 2022.
Key Takeaways
[00:21] - Why taking time to travel (with your spouse) is important.
[06:50] - Why major world downturns have a positive impact on the market.
[11:29] - How to deal with “flash crashes” and overall market volatility psychologically.
[17:26] - What the yield curve means for an upcoming recession.
Quotes [14:38] - “The level of volatility and equities just improves the use case for direct indexing and custom indexing. Basically what that means is instead of owning the S & P 500, you own the component parts.” ~ Doug Stokes [15:48] - “For people that do potentially need a portion of their assets, from a psychological standpoint those assets over a defined period of time shouldn’t be invested in the markets. Because if you have your next month’s living needs in the market and you’re watching this kind of thing it can really be difficult from a psychological standpoint.” ~ Greg Stokes [23:37] - “The general rule here is, you anticipate recessions are going to occur over a lifetime, multiple recessions, and you design a portfolio in accordance with that sort of logic.” ~ Doug Stokes
Links
Covid lethality trends
How Americans spend their lives
Why travel is the best way to spend money
The worst thing you can spend money on
Why keeping cash is good for your psychology
Yield curve inversion explained (part I)
Yield curve inversion explained (part II)
Yield curve inversion explained (part III)
Yield curve inversion explained (part IV)
Alibaba
JD.com
Stokes Family Office: April 2020 Market Update feat. Patrick O’Shaughnessy
Understanding Inflation and Countercyclical Indexing with Cullen Roche
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
With America more divided than ever before, few things have the power to bring together both sides of the political spectrum. The Opportunity Zone program is one of those rarities specially designed to satisfy political opposites. Not to mention, dramatically improving the community around us. But some businesses and individuals are hesitant about holding an investment for 10 years, or maybe they only remember the policy’s flawed origin story. An expert on all things Opportunity Zones, Joe Truhe from Jefferson Capital Partners is here to demystify the program’s complexities and core benefits. In this episode, Joe talks with Doug and Greg about the benefits – both financial and humanitarian – of the Opportunity Zone program, including how the program manages to merge oppositional thinking, how OZs work in practice, and why the program fits perfectly within Jefferson Capital’s core strategy.
Key Takeaways
[00:52] - What are Opportunity Zones?
[02:30] - How the Opportunity Zone program marries both sides of the political spectrum and how it actually works in practice.
[08:31] - How individuals can use Opportunity Zones to invest in a business.
[11:27] - Why real estate investment took off in Opportunity Zones and what future law changes mean for current OZ investments.
[15:27] - Why the 10-year hold is a drawback for many.
[17:15] - What happens when you sell a company within that 10-year window.
[20:18] - The real financial benefits of the Opportunity Zone program.
[27:07] - How the Opportunity Zone program fits within Jefferson Capital’s core strategy.
Quotes [02:20] - “The Opportunity Zone program is designed to get both sides of the political landscape to join on economic development in otherwise underserved communities.” ~ Joe Truhe [28:49] - “These are times of opportunity for us, no pun intended, but you can sort of lean into the chaos and grab market share with private investment where you may not be able to in a public company. That’s the illiquidity trade-off.” ~ Joe Truhe
Links
Joe Truhe
Jefferson Capital Partners
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Greg Stokes
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
If there’s one industry that’s been uprooted since March 2020, it’s live entertainment. Just as leaders within tourism and hospitality have struggled to regain ground, runners of festivals and owners of live theaters have unleashed a wheelhouse of creativity just to stay afloat and continue serving the communities and artists around them. In this episode, Greg and Doug talk with Becker Hall, CEO of Hogs For The Cause, and Barrett Cooper, COO of ERG Enterprises. Although Becker manages the unpredictability of live outdoor events and Barrett the difficult task of positioning The Orpheum as a go-to experience, they’ve both developed unique ways to offset inflation, navigate a growing labor shortage, and encourage consumers to leave their living rooms for an in-person escape. Greg and Doug talk with Becker and Barrett about staying afloat during a global pandemic, navigating an unpredictable return to live events, what’s necessary to survive in the live entertainment business, and what audiences crave now more than ever.
Key Takeaways
[00:39] - What it’s like running a festival in 2022.
[02:22] - The profit breakdown and how Becker offsets the cost of inflation.
[04:06] - How entertainment venues like The Orpheum manage to stay afloat.
[04:41] - How Becker and Barrett find creative ways to increase their revenue streams and offset inflation.
[08:01] - The impact that 2020 federal stimulus programs had on Barrett and Becker’s businesses.
[12:57] - Why there’s a massive labor supply gap.
[16:53] - Navigating the rising cost of musicians.
[22:07] - What it’s like operating an outdoor event in a subtropical climate.
[27:54] - How Barrett positions The Orpheum as the go-to theater for up-and-coming artists.
[31:39] - How Barrett has capitalized on a new attraction to entice audiences, improve customer experience, and bolster The Orpheum’s revenue streams.
Quotes [01:58] - “I will tell you, if you want to put on a music festival, you better be making money somewhere, because it’s usually a loss leader for people and some kind of tax break that brings in some goodwill for the community and the environment doing it.” ~ Becker Hall [05:25] - “Just because we’re a non-profit or maybe just a private event, we still think like any privately-traded company. We’re focused on growth and you’ve got to be focused on growth year over year knowing that a lot of the expenses are going to pile up and get higher and higher.” ~ Becker Hall [20:40] - “If we can focus on that experience, that moment of escape, that’s what people I think really demand right now; a moment separate from all the static and noise of the world.” ~ Barrett Cooper [32:52] - “Coming out of COVID, again, it’s the whole escape from reality, lose yourself in something beyond just a good cocktail. It’s a good cocktail plus a story and that’s what we’re trying to sell.” ~ Barrett Cooper
Links
Becker Hall
Barrett Cooper
Hogs For The Cause
ERG Enterprises
The Orpheum Theater
French Quarter Festival
New Orleans Jazz & Heritage Festival
AEG
Live Nation
Jon Batiste
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Mardi Gras
Voice of the Wetlands Festival
Dr. John
Saenger Theatre
The Fillmore
Winter Circle Productions
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a humanitarian crisis that’s gripped the globe. While difficult to comprehend on a human level, the economic impact of a widespread European conflict can be equally as complicated to unpack. From inflation to rising gas prices to seemingly unpredictable markets, the state of our economy is enough to make most panic. Luckily, understanding why the Russian-Ukraine conflict has increased inflation and what our government is doing to combat rising costs can dissolve some of that panic. This week, Doug and Greg discuss the recent market volatility and ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, unpacking why globalization impacts interest rates, the surefire way to combat market volatility, and why it’s pointless to panic about an imminent economic recession.
Key Takeaways
[00:39] - What Doug thinks about today’s volatile market.
[07:35] - Why a recession may be on the horizon.
[10:31] - How much of inflation is demand-driven versus supply-driven.
[11:07] - How projections on the war in Ukraine have shifted and how inflation and supply chain issues will continue to impact developing countries.
[15:41] - How investors should respond to volatility.
[17:10] - Why today’s volatility highlights the importance of diversification.
[19:37] - Why you shouldn’t panic about an imminent recession.
Quotes [09:29] - “The silver lining here is that – and we talked about this on a prior podcast – households are in fantastic shape and debt service payments, specifically mortgage as a percentage of disposable income, were at all-time lows before rates crept up.” ~ Doug Stokes [15:49] - “The range of outcomes is so wide here that I think diversification is the ultimate winner in this sort of framework.” ~ Doug Stokes [17:47] - “Oil and commodities really have been vindicated as an asset class the last couple years and it really goes to show the importance of diversification. Because the human instinct is to go with what’s worked in the past and that absolutely has not worked in the past but it’s working like magic this year.” ~ Greg Stokes
Links
Cullen Roche
Bill McBride
Derek Thompson
Chevron
Exxon
Lemonade
Datadog
Upstart
Peleton
Ben Carlson
Morgan Housel
The Psychology of Money
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Peter Ricchiuti, Founder and Director of Burkenroad Reports. Peter started Tulane’s nationally acclaimed student stock research program Burkenroad in 1993. Since then, he has mentored hundreds of students about underpriced and overlooked stocks in southern states. Before that, Peter also served as the Chief Investment Officer for the state of Louisiana. Peter talks with Doug and Greg about overlooked stocks, the impact of the pandemic on the decline in birth rate, and trends in the markets of different states, especially New Orleans.
Key Takeaways
[03:30] - Stock Under The Rocks.
[04:40] - The Burkenroad Mutual Fund.
[07:46] - Peter’s insights on the future of the markets.
[09:01] - How COVID sped up the progress of inflation.
[15:56] - What’s the Baltic Dry Index?
[17:06] - What happens after an inverted deal curve?
[22:05] - How big is the impact of the top six companies?
[24:16] - Why you should not focus on the market-cap-weighted index.
[25:41] - Do oil companies affect other entities in the market?
[28:00] - Can Louisiana be a renewable state?
[32:35] - Pumping money into startups in New Orleans.
Quotes [20:31] - “I think one of the big problems we have in the country is tremendous income, inequality, wealth inequality, economic opportunity inequality. And I think that's leading to a couple of big trends.” - Peter Ricchiuti [22:55] - “Indexing in other asset class, small-cap, mid-cap stocks, international, they just look flat out more inviting. On the international side, I think the average American has 90% to 95% of their money domestically. And yet, 50% of all stocks are actually non-US. And these countries are growing faster.” - Peter Ricchiuti
Links
Peter Ricchiuti
Burkenroad Reports
Tulane University Freeman School of Business
Stocks Under Rocks: How to Uncover Overlooked, Profitable Market Opportunities by Peter Ricchiuti
Hancock Whitney Bank
First Horizon Bank (formerly Iberia Bank)
CARES Act
Charles Ponzi
Baltic Dry Index
Origin Bank
Wall Street Journal
S&P 500
Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Argentina just struck a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to give the South American country some “breathing space” for the next few years to pay off debt. From an Argentinian expert’s perspective, how is it looking for the economy and more importantly, to its people? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Santiago Solanet, Senior Investment Analyst at BlackTORO Global Investments. Santiago is known for monitoring and analyzing the local and global economic situation of the Argentinians. Santiago talks with Doug and Greg about understanding Argentinian markets—from the recent IMF agreement to peso depreciation to its political environment.
Key Takeaways
[00:41] - Beyond the markets: the life and rich culture of Argentina.
[03:51] - Peso currency depreciation.
[08:55] - What's it like to do business in Argentina?
[11:19] - Insights on the effect of war with the UK, soybean prices, and inflation.
[15:59] - How does a country turn around a 50% year-over-year inflation?
[21:00] - How's 2023 looking for the Argentinian economy?
[24:16] - A look at Argentina’s labor market performance.
[33:13] - Vista plans with cash flow.
[37:13] - Exploring Argentinian cuisine.
Quotes [06:47] - “The ‘most’ problem is, with every month that passes, with your salary, you can buy less and less goods as compared to the previous months. In Argentina, every six months, we have a compensation—we actualize the salary, but we always run it back against inflation.” - Santiago Solanet [15:58] - “In my opinion, we need a change in the government, change of power, because, in this government, we don’t have trust or confidence or credibility. You're not going to solve anything because you might say, well, we are going to change the economy plan, we are going to have lower taxes—but the markets, they don’t believe that.” - Santiago Solanet [29:23] - “I think there are good opportunities in Argentina. We have to be very picky. There are companies that have huge problems that are too risky.” - Santiago Solanet
Links
Santiago Solanet on LinkedIn
BlackTORO
VISTA
Argentina strikes breakthrough deal with IMF in $45 bln debt talks
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Central Puerto
ConocoPhillips
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Jamie Catherwood, Client Portfolio Associate at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. Jamie has a deep fascination with and expertise in finance history. Throughout the years, he’s shared finance content that goes in-depth to help investors make better and more evidence-based financial decisions. Jamie talks with Doug and Greg about the importance of financial history in strategizing portfolios, and insights on innovation entering deep value territory.
Key Takeaways
[02:30] - Parallels between the current market and the past.
[05:01] - What does history tell us about the change in behavior of retail investors?
[07:49] - What's the Kindleberget Minsky Cycle?
[09:06] - The Price Conviction Paradox.
[12:35] - The Golden Age of Fraud
[ 13:57] - Historical investment cycles.
[17:35] - Where can the market go wrong?
[23:35] - Are innovation stocks in deep value territory?
[26:25] - What is the bubble triangle?
Quotes [33:27] - “I think that the government has some role in markets, but obviously too much of a presence can kind of stifle innovation. Too much regulation can hurt markets, but I think there definitely needs to be some level of regulation because otherwise, frauds would be able to persist with kind of no threat from anyone stepping in.” - Jamie Catherwood [39:52] - “Once you read enough about financial history and you kind of see all these crazy bubbles, it kind of gives you more perspective and makes you step back and say, ‘Is this going to be one of those? And it makes it easier to not get swept up in the next hot thing.” - Jamie Catherwood
Links
Jamie Catherwood on LinkedIn
@InvestorAmnesia
Price Conviction Paradox by Jamie Catherwood
Nasdaq 100
Peloton
Russell 1000
James Chanos | Yale School of Management
Wall Street power player: We're incentivized to cheat
A Minsky-Kindleberger Perspective on the Financial Crisis
Tesla
Ark Innovation ETF
Innovation Stocks Are Not in A Bubble: We Believe They Are in Deep Value Territory by Catherine Wood
Wirecard
Target
Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles by John Turner and William Quinn
GameStop
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk with Cullen Roche, Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Discipline Funds. Aside from advocating for rebalancing portfolios with low-fee, tax-efficient funds, Cullen also writes about the macroeconomy and investing strategies through his blog, Pragmatic Capitalism. Cullen also advises on the overall impact of inflation in the current market. Cullen talks with Doug and Greg about inflation, economic cycles, and countercyclical indexing with ETFs.
Key Takeaways
[00:47] - What causes inflation?
[03:02] - How COVID impacted the direction of inflation.
[07:08] - Bank reserves vs. direct payments to individuals.
[09:40] - Has the inflation already peaked?
[13:35] - Are inflation and inflation rates correlated?
[20:16] - Hyperproductivity in the US economy.
[23:31] - How inflation negatively impacts everybody.
[26:40] - The midterm elections and market predictions.
[34:06] - Cullen’s insights on portfolio allocation.
[39:25] - Is global market investing a good idea?
[44:12] - What is Discipline Funds ETF?
[50:11] - How is Disciplines Fund ETF designed to last long term?
Quotes [20:20] - “The thing about deflation is it tends to occur, especially the really traumatic ones, inside of debt bubbles like the housing crisis. The thing that made that so frightening was that you had balance sheets collapsing from debt deflation, and that is really traumatic because it's the exact opposite of money printing — it's money destruction. And that is a very unnatural process inside of any long-term economic period.” - @cullenroche [38:52] - “A lot of people get in trouble because they get overly confident about potential outcomes and they start saying, ‘Oh, well, hyperinflation is coming, the government's ruining everything, so I need to just own nothing but Bitcoin.’ And those sorts of maximalist positions can be really damaging because if you're wrong, your outcome is asymmetric in a really potentially catastrophic way.” - @cullenroche [41:59] - “I'm not just an advocate of diversifying globally. I'm actually an advocate of diversifying globally based on what the actual full market capitalization is.” - @cullenroche
Links
Cullen Roche on Twitter
Cullen Roche on LinkedIn
Orcam Financial Group, LLC
Pragmatic Capitalism
Discipline Funds
Everything You Need To Know About Inflation by Cullen Roche
Further Evidence on Greenspan’s Conundrum
Joe Manchin
John Bogle
Tesla
Vanguard ETFs
S&P 500
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the effect of electoral party systems and politics on the markets, and the promising investment opportunities in New Orleans. Key Takeaways
[00:42] - How do politics affect the markets?
[05:11] - How the market behaves amid political uncertainties.
[07:59] - Why markets don’t like uncertainties.
[12:06] - Current living conditions in New Orleans.
[18:03] - Promising investment opportunities in New Orlean.
Quotes [03:48] - “That's the beauty of the American system, right? There are always ebbs and flows between one party or another, or one prevailing ideology or another. It's a good or a bad thing politically, but generally, a moderation between one party or the other is good in my opinion.” - Doug Stokes [07:59] - “Markets don't like surprises. For example, we all saw that in March of 2020, when the world was coming to an end—the stock prices were falling off a cliff because there was so much uncertainty.” - Greg Stokes
Links
Some Early Clues About How The Midterms Will Go | FiveThirtyEight
Georgia Potential November Showdowns: They're Already Close, Quinnipiac University Georgia Poll Finds; Only 25% Are Very Confident In Accurate 2022 Election Count
Ken Fisher
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Doug and Greg talk about why the cure to inflation is inflation, and why US stocks continue to outperform international stocks.
Key Takeaways
[00:28] - 2022 kicks off with a consumer price rise.
[05:31] - Why Doug believes the Federal Reserve is very market-facing.
[09:49] - The cure to inflation is inflation.
[12:13] - Efficient automobiles: from gasoline to electric.
[13:04] - What is ESG investing?
[14:12] - The rule of the commodity market.
[15:50] - What's a commodity supercycle?
[16:54] - Who's the biggest performer in recent inflation?
[18:13] - Why is it important to diversify?
[20:44] - Annualized return from the US compared to international countries.
[23:58] - Why the market and tax administration is a great factor in US relocation.
[27:48] - Why the state of California tops most rankings.
Quotes [14:32] - “In 2012, emerging markets were up and commodities were down. In 2013, small-cap US stocks were up big and emerging markets were down. The whole idea behind this is it's important to stay diversified and not put all of your eggs in one basket.” - Greg Stokes [19:16] - “It's important, number one, to diversify because nobody knows what's going to be the best performer over any given period of time. And just because it's the best performer one year doesn't mean it's going to be the best performer the next year.” - Greg Stokes
Links
U.S. Inflation Hit 7% in December, Fastest Pace Since 1982 | Wall Street Journal
Jerome Powell
2018 Doesn’t Prove Rate Hikes Are Bad for Stocks | Fisher Investments
Inflation in Time & Inconvenience by Ben Carlson | A Wealth of Common Sense
Markets That Are Definitely NOT In a Bubble by Ben Carlson | A Wealth of Common Sense
WisdomTree
Apple
S&P 500
Connect with our hosts
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Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg discuss everything you need to know about the blockchain, cryptocurrency, and digital assets—its speculative market, its stance against looming inflation, and its promise to be the currency of the future.
Key Takeaways
[00:42] - The triple threat of policy tightening.
[02:05] - Insights on unemployment during COVID.
[06:04] - The need for focusing on continued ability to grow amid the pandemic.
[07:40] - What transpired in the downfall of Peloton?
[10:38] - Why old-world, bottom-up investing may be the way to go.
[13:04] - Are bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hedged against inflation?
[16:08] - Should you invest in blockchain stocks?
[17:32] - What's promising about blockchain?
[18:04] - How blockchain-based companies work.
[19:37] - Cryptocurrency as fiat money.
[21:04] - What's the future for digital assets and crypto?
Quotes [04:15] - “In the last 10 years, I would imagine that people are hitting their retirement objectives earlier than they were planning on if they were doing any planning, just because of the growth in markets.” - Doug Stokes [11:18] - “That particular investment style— the bottom-up, buying earnings, buying companies that have consistent earnings —was really not in favor until the last 18 months or the last seven to 10 years. But it has definitely come into favor recently.” - Greg Stokes [14:27] - “We can see on both sides that when things are not going well in markets in general, I think people are just dumping everything. And instead of viewing that as sort of a hedge on overreaching government and inflation, it's basically just a complete speculative bed right now.” - Doug Stokes
Links
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 14-15, 2021
December jobs report: Payrolls rise by 199,000 as the unemployment rate falls to 3.9%
CARES Act
NASDAQ
Teladoc
Peloton
Lemonade
DocuSign
Roku
Bitcoin
Netscape
Stanford MBA programs
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
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Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the rate hiking cycle as we enter 2022, the truth about debt and the affordability of housing, the impact of monopoly capitalism, and the new business investor mindset amid a pandemic.
Key Takeaways
[00:55] - Ken Fisher’s insights on the rate hiking cycle of 2022.
[03:51] - There is no rule of thumb in markets.
[06:29] - Debt and affordability in housing.
[08:25] - How Amazon remains on top.
[09:47] - How the smallest Airpods became as big as all of Tesla.
[14:33] - The “COVID is airborne” newsbreak and its market implications.
[18:31] - How to do business as usual amid COVID.
[21:11] - The impact that relatively safety has had on society.
[24:44] - Why new parents should opt for automated savings.
Quotes [03:51] - “There is really no rule of thumb in markets. If you think about it, do you really think that the collective knowledge of the millions and millions of investors that are participating in markets are not aware that we're in a rate hiking cycle now, or at least entering one? There's just so much going on in the markets beyond just one of these particular narratives that drive prices.” - Doug Stokes [10:55] - “In terms of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook, their size and their company have an ingrained nature in our lives─I don't see that as a negative. And I don't see them as respective monopolies, as purely anti-competitive. I think they've improved our lives in crazy ways. And I think they still continue to do so.” - Doug Stokes [19:38] - “A lot of it is going to come from leadership. The CDC just came out and said quarantine, if you're exposed or have COVID, is five days now, down from 10. In the midst of an Omicron wave, I think that the signal the government is sending, which I think is the right signal, is that we need to start working on the next phase of this getting back to, nearly, or 100% of what previous life was like.” - Doug Stokes
Links
2018 Doesn’t Prove Rate Hikes Are Bad for Stocks | FisherInvestments
S&P500
@MorganHousel on Twitter
Scott Galloway
Amazon
Apple
Tesla
Netflix
Scott Gottlieb
The psychology of protecting the UK public against external threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz compared
Sean Payton
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google Podcasts
LagniappePodcast.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Investors’ decisions are mostly based on financial predictions made by so-called experts. So, when the news broke that we were about to enter a pandemic, investors and advisors were in shock. How do investors move forward when modern society is suddenly afflicted by an uncontrollable peril like COVID-19? In this episode, Doug and Greg talk about the risks of poor financial forecasting, the truth about market corrections, and the true indicators for smart investing practices.
Key Takeaways
[02:03] - Why is forecasting in finance becoming a nightmare?
[03:47] - What forecasts and projections really tell you.
[05:47] - Omicron’s impact.
[09:52] - How COVID-19 has been affecting investors’ and advisors’ daily lives.
[12:30] - Why is it impossible to forecast in finance?
[15:29] - Why the bond market is always the best guide.
[17:11] - Two factors that affect inflation.
[18:36] - Why corrections are normal.
[25:10] - How forecasting works in sports.
Quotes [10:26] - “This has been such a shock to society, especially a society that's been used to general comfort throughout life. I think if this would have happened 100 or 200 years ago, people would have just dealt with it and moved on. But now we're basically protected from most dangers in the world and modern society. And so having an uncontrollable danger like this is a complete shock to the system, and I think it's going to take time to come out of it. And I'm hopeful sooner rather than later.” - Doug Stokes [12:35] - “It's impossible to forecast what's going to happen in the future. We were in the trenches dealing with human psychology and individuals that were dealing with some very stressful situations in March of 2020, and nobody could've forecasted that we were going to run into a pandemic.” - Greg Stokes [22:17] - “As an investor, if you can't take the 10% or maybe even 20% correction in stocks─because it's going to happen statistically once every year with 10% and once every six years at 20%─then what's your alternative?” - Doug Stokes
Links
How bad are Wall Street forecasts? Really bad by Morgan Housel | USAToday
Warren Buffett
NFL
US Senator Joe Manchin
S&P500
@fivethirtyeight on Twitter
New York Times
Connect with our hosts
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office
Subscribe and stay in touch
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google Podcasts
LagniappePodcast.com
Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener’s personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a final decision.
Lagniappe is a new podcast hosted by Greg Stokes and Doug Stokes, brothers and partners in Stokes Family Office, a New Orleans wealth management firm. Lagniappe is a word derived from the South American Spanish phrase la yapa, which means “a little something extra”. Although this is an old custom, it is still widely practiced in Louisiana. We created this podcast to be a little something extra for our listeners, friends, and clients. We want to share some of our passions and insights about life in New Orleans, as well as how we run our business, manage portfolios, and thoughts about what’s going on in the world of finance and financial planning. We also have some great guests lined up to talk about their specific areas of expertise. Join us each week for an entertaining look at current news, personal finance, brotherly banter, and more. Our first episode drops in January 2022. Subscribe now, wherever you listen to podcasts. Links
Doug Stokes
Greg Stokes
Stokes Family Office