Kitco NEWS Interviews: Recent Episodes
Kitco NEWS, David Lin
John Eagleton, CEO of Intellabridge, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the next protocol to gain critical mass adoption.
Grant McCarty, Policy Director of Bitcoin Magazine discusses the ramifications of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on civil liberties with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
Last year Northern Graphite (CVE:NGC) leap frogged from a company holding an advanced asset to now being the biggest graphite producer in North America, said Gregory Bowes, CEO and director.
Bowes spoke to Kitco on Tuesday.
Graphite is enjoying an upswing due to energy transition. Graphite is the anode in a lithium ion battery and its single-largest component. On average, a plug-in EV has around 70 kg of graphite. With at least 125 million EVs expected globally by 2030, that’s more than 8 million tonnes of battery-ready graphite needed in the coming decade, according to Kitco commentator Richard Mills.
In December 2021 Northern Graphite acquired two graphite mines from Imerys SA: the Lac des Iles producing graphite mine in Quebec and the Okankande/Okorusu graphite producing operation in Namibia. The $55 million financing was a mixture of debt, financing and royalty agreements led by Sprott.
"It's a truly transformational acquisition for us," said Bowes. "We're going from having one advanced stage project in Ontario to being a producing company immediately. We're buying the only producing North American graphite mine, and we're buying a second mine from them in Namibia, which is on care and maintenance. We'll have it back online in nine to 12 months."
With the deal done the company touts 50,000tpy of graphite production capacity, plus two large development projects with 100,000tpy potential making it the third largest non-Chinese producer.
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Zero premium acquisitions are a thing of the past, according to Peter Marrone, executive chair of Yamana Gold (NYSE:AUY) who stressed acquirers need to pay fair value.
Marrone spoke to Kitco correspondent Paul Harris at BMO's Global Metals & Mining Conference held in Florida last week.
Yamana recognizes that it may potentially be a target following the acquisition of Kirkland Lake Mining by Agnico Eagle Mines, given it has a 1 million ounces a year production profile at an all-in sustaining cost of around US$900 per ounce, and a number of development projects.
With a wobbly economy and too much household wealth tied up in equities, the markets have less to fear from a hawkish Fed, said Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, responsible for fund management and research at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle spoke to Kitco on Tuesday. He said there may be a once-a-done rate hike instead of several rate increases some were expecting as the Federal Reserve tries to tamp down inflation. "Inflation numbers are coming down, so we can actually take a little bit more time with our rate hike campaign. I cannot emphasize it enough: I think the market is expecting [too] much hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. It's ridiculous," said Stoeferle.
Jay Martin, CEO of CambridgeHouse and host of The Jay Martin Show, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the outlook for the economy and some of the safest assets to buy in the event of an economic downturn.
Tolga Kumova’s Aston Minerals (ASX:ASO) started out as a gold junior when the company hit significant nickel mineralization. Kumova was behind Syrah Resources, an African graphite company, which now has a valuation north of $600 million. The company recently signed up Tesla for an offtake agreement. Aston Minerals Edleston project is located about 60 Km south of Timmins, Ontario. The company announced 163.5m at 0.52% Ni & 0.016% Co from 186.5m at its Boomerang target. Kumova is executive chair of Aston.
The Federal Open Market Committee has announced a doubling in the pace of asset tapering on Wednesday. The Dot Plots indicate that there will be an average of three rate hikes in 2022, three more in 2023, and two in 2024, all in increments of 25 basis points. Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the impact that monetary policy next year will have on financial markets.
E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News the outlook for stocks, gold, and silver in 2022.
Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the major investment themes of 2022, and which assets will perform the best.
2022 will see silver and gold prices diverge once again, with silver falling by 2% while gold climbs in value, said Jeff Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
Kurt Wuckert Jr., the "Bitcoin Historian" at CoinGeek, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, evidence that points to the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin has a reputation as being a stable store of value in the cryptocurrency space, but one company proves that the largest coin has utility besides being an investment. Chantelle Borrelli is the co-founder and CEO of CrownBits Rewards, a loyalty platform that offers cash-back rewards in Bitcoin. Borrelli discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, how incentive programs are what's needed for mass adoption in Bitcoin to happen.
Michael So, VP of Business Development of Cook Finance, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the newest developments in decentralized finance (DeFi).
The uptrend for gold is still intact, said Dr. Nicole Adshead-Bell, director at Cupel Advisory Group.
Earlier this month Adshead-Bell spoke to Kitco at the Deutsche Goldmesse show in Frankfurt, Germany.
"We're no longer at the very beginnings of a bull market," said Adshead-Bell, adding that the easy money has already been made.
"Bull markets have varying degrees of gestation and some of them can be exceptionally long in duration," she said noting 2020 was a "euphoric" year.
"Whenever you have that kind of parabolic equity performance, there will always be a correction. That's a very natural thing, and that's a healthy thing."
Adshead-Bell said inflation and global uncertainty favors gold.
"All of these elements that are circling around the globe are very, very good for gold. I think we'll look back on this year and think that this was an opportune time to enter into the sector."
The biggest risk facing investors right now is the unsustainable stock market valuations that will eventually mean revert, said Ted Oakley, founder and partner of Oxbow Advisors.
The crypto protocols and projects that will stand the test of time are those that can scale to allow for massive adoption should over a billion people use blockchain, said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO and founder of FTX.
FTX is one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges and had recently acquired the rights to rename the American Airlines Arena in Miami, home to the NBA team Miami Heat, to FTX Arena.
While 2020 may have seen gold broach peak prices in some currencies, the average cost of the metal in 2021 is a bigger boost for gold miners, according to Ronald-Peter Stoeferle.
Stoeferle spoke to Kitco on Friday. He is managing partner at Incrementum AG.
"The average gold price is at an all-time high," said Stoeferle commenting on 2021. "Of course we are seeing some cost inflation when it comes to labor and materials, but the margin of the producers is still spectacularly high."
The strong rally in precious metals was a bit of a surprise for First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG) CEO Keith Neumeyer.
Neumeyer spoke to Kitco on Friday at the Deutsche Gold Messe show in Frankfurt, Germany.
Two pieces of news last week propelled gold higher: headline inflation rose to 6.2%, and the $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill was signed into law. Gold had a solid breakout trading above $1,850 an ounce during the week.
Neumeyer commented.
"The move surprised me a little bit, because the economy is still doing quite well and interest rates really haven't come down," said Neumeyer.
"The metal that surprised me the most is silver. You've got oil at 80-plus dollars. You've got copper at $4-plus. You've got natural gas north of $5--look at all the grains. Everything's been moving except silver," said Neumeyer. "That's the one that I think is going to play catch-up."
Spot silver was up about $1 for the week, closing above $25 an ounce.
"Gold--in my view--is going to reach all-time-highs but probably not until next year."
The problem with the "inflation is transitory" argument is that it overlooks the growth in money supply, said Willem Middlekoop, founder of Commodity Discovery Fund.
Middlekoop spoke to Kitco on Friday at the Deutsche Goldmesse show in Frankfurt, Germany.
The Biden administration and Fed officials have stated that inflationary pressures are transitory based on pent-up demand, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages.
"Nobody's mentioning the 800-pound gorilla in the room and that's money growth and currency debasement. Almost 25% of all dollars in M2 circulation--that's deposit and physical money--grew by almost 25% in the last 18 months," said Middlekoop.
"It's a normal reaction. Everything the government can't print will go up in value."
On Friday the CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Frank Holmes, joined editor Neil Christensen and Kitco correspondent Paul Harris to discuss inflation, crypto and gold.
In September platinum group metal giant Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE: SSW) (NYSE: SBSW) announced it would joint venture with ioneer (ASX: INR) to develop ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-boron project located in Nevada, USA. Executive chair of ioneer, James Calaway, spoke to Kitco mid-October. A definitive feasibility study has already been completed, and ioneer is working towards its final state permits. “We're ready to build. It's a project that's going to quadruple America's lithium production,” said Calaway.
Joe Foster, co-founder of Reebok, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the founding of the company, Adidas' acquisition, and now sale, of Reebok, and the future of footwear.
Ian Khan, futurist and emerging technology expert, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the technological disruptions that investors should watch for.
The recent bullish momentum for Bitcoin is likely to be sustained because key technical levels have been breached, and the fear from China's tightening regulation has largely dissipated, said Florian Grummes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting. "We have a good chance to see $100k by the end of the year, maybe even higher. Of course, that would spark an altcoin season again. If Bitcoin really continues to run, I would say that the $60k $65k level is the last resistance of the bears. If there is nothing coming for them, then Bitcoin is off to the races and it could be $100k or even higher, $150k is possible towards January," he said.
Current valuations for the major cryptos, including Bitcoin, are "miraculous" and prices should be much lower, said Clem Chambers of InvestorsHub.com. Chambers told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that there are several other tokens to look at, and in particular, the DeFi space overall has more long-term potential.
Chris Voss is the CEO of the Black Swan Group and the author of "Never Split the Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It." He has previously worked as a hostage negotiator for the FBI. Voss reveals to David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, who he considers to be the best negotiator of all-time and why these life lessons are essential to success in business, politics, and one's personal life.
Markets have “short-term memory” and this correction does not account for the innovation that the leaders of the S&P 500 are producing, said David Barse, CEO of XOUT Capital.
Barse told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that “This is the same issue that has occurred in the first quarter of this year where a slight uptick in Treasury yields seems to cause a deflation of everything that’s innovative.”
Hong Fang, CEO of Okcoin, maintains her target of $100k Bitcoin by year-end.
Speaking to David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, Fang said that the adoption rate of Bitcoin has steadily increased, and the price is bouncing back from its consolidating period.
Several “sound money” assets are undervalued right now, and are long overdue for a major comeback, said Lawrence Lepard, managing general partner of Equity Management Associates.
Gold peaked in 1981 when it reached $850 an ounce in nominal terms, but adjusted for inflation, that would equal $3,000 in real terms today. $3,000 is this cycle’s coming peak, David Garofalo, CEO of Gold Royalty Corp. told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
When will the Fed taper? Never, says E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty and author of "Why Gold, Why Now?" "Now the debate is why will they stop [quantitative easing]? They'll never stop. It's never going to stop," Tucker told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
Frank Holmes, CEO, of U.S. Global Investors and executive chairman of HIVE Blockchain discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the sectors capital is flowing towards now, and how the mining industry should attract investments, especially from millennials.
Even if the world enters into another gold standard, silver, which has historically been used as money, may not retain that role in the future.
China is going through its third batch of strategic reserves selling, commencing on September 1. This sale will include 150,000 tons of metal, including 70,000 tons of aluminum, 50,000 tons of zinc, and 30,000 tons of copper. Due to this selling, copper has fallen from its highs in May. Gianni Kovacevic, CEO of CopperBank discussed with David Lin, anchor of Kitco News, China’s goals and what the downside target of copper may be, as well as the long-term upside potential.
Former Congressman and host of The Liberty Report, Ron Paul, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the rationale for the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan and the consequences of a military withdrawal.
“There is no top price for Bitcoin because there is no bottom for fiat money(currency)” said Max Keiser, Host of The Keiser Report. Fiat money is currency which does not have intrinsic or use value on its own. It only has value because the government maintains its value. Keiser, who is also the Co-Host of The Orange Pill Podcast spoke to David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. “If you are going to price Bitcoin and fiat money, the price is infinity, because fiat money has no bottom, while Bitcoin has no ceiling. If you priced it in ounces of gold, that would be a more valid way to price it,” Keiser continued. “I am not sure exactly what the exchange rate is for an ounce of gold is to Bitcoin. But whatever it is, you can multiply it by a hundred times and that’s where we are headed.”
The U.S. Federal Reserve is "trapped", says Michael Gentile, strategic investor.
Gentile told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, that two scenarios could play out: either the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points next year to regain confidence in the markets, or they let inflation run hot and do nothing.
Neither of these scenarios will be enough to contain inflation. In order to really "go to war" against inflation, the Fed will need to raise rates to at least 3%, which would cause stocks to crash by the order of 50%. Even a 25 basis point raise would trigger a 10-20% correction, Gentile said.
Greg King, CEO of Osprey Funds, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, why Bitcoin could cap at $100,000 or even $200,000, as well as when a crypto ETF could be launched in the U.S.
The economy is returning to a 1970s era of higher inflation, potentially reaching double digits, said Mark Skousen, editor-in-chief of Forecasts & Strategies. Speaking to David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, Skousen’s comments come as CPI data released Tuesday showed 5.4% annual inflation in June.
John Feneck, founder of Feneck Consulting, discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the outlook for the gold sector.
“Ethereum is the backbone to the blockchain network,” said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. Speaking with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, Holmes discusses the growth trajectories for both Bitcoin and Etheruem, and how the latter could one day become the most dominant cryptocurrency.
Graphite-focused NextSource is up over 500% in the past year on recent deal making and growing investor interest in the battery material space. CEO Craig Scherba talked to Kitco on Wednesday. Last month NextSource Materials signed a 10-year agreement with thyssenkrupp Materials Trading to deliver approximately 35,000 tonnes per annum of graphite concentrate from the company's Molo mine in Madagascar.
It's only a matter of time before privacy tokens, like Monero, which conceal the provenance of transactions, become illegal in the U.S., said John Sarson, CEO of Sarson Funds.
Is Bitcoin just essentially another form of fiat, with no intrinsic value? Does the endless creation of altcoins negate the scarcity proposition of Bitcoin, which is capped at only 21 million coins? Saifedean Ammous, independent educator at Saifedean.com and author of “The Bitcoin Standard” discusses with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, some of these common
Investment demand for silver has risen sharply this year and will continue to remain strong said Jeff Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, who said that investment demand has historically been one of the biggest drivers of the silver price. However, a common misconception is that market deficits for silver drive the price while the opposite is true; a surplus, which is what the silver market is experiencing now, drives price momentum, Christian told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
Gold is faced with a double-edged sword of inflationary pressures, said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com, who expects near-term downward pressures to prevail. Wagner discussed with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News, the Fed’s options after Jerome Powell admitted in a testimony Tuesday that the current economic path is “unsustainable.”
The energy transition will be disinflationary since it ties in with broader trends in digitization and automation which ultimately drives down costs, said Macquarie Capital’s Head of Asian Strategy and Global Strategy Co-ordinator Viktor Shvets. Shvets spoke to Kitco on Friday from Hong Kong.
Although the year-on-year inflation data may decline in the next consumer price index (CPI) release given how low the base was last year, the month-on-month increase could spike, triggering gold price rally, said Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator. “Watch the month-on-month change. Ask yourself, has anything really gotten cheaper over the last month? No, well, maybe lumber, but generally speaking nothing’s gotten cheaper. The month-on-month CPI numbers, numbers the Fed looks at, I think will tell a very strong story that should really send a few tremors of fear to the powers that be,” Tiggre told David Lin, anchor of Kitco News.
Over the next few weeks, gold is set to outperform Bitcoin, said Florian Grummes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting.
The question is how long this outperformance can last?
David Barse, CEO of XOUT Capital, and Peter Grandich, founder of Peter Grandich & Co. join Kitco’s David Lin to discuss the outlook on equities, gold, and Bitcoin.
The end of this current bull market cycle will be marked by “significant damage,” said Ted Oakley, founder and partner of Oxbow Advisors, who have currently allocated 35% of their investments into cash.Oakley told David Lin that one of main factors behind the stock market rally in the last 10 years has been quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, so any tightening from the central bank will likely trigger a market correction.
Silver is a strategic metal, and with mounting industrial demand it’s only a matter of time before previous all-time highs are met, and then a new push to triple digits is on the way, said Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver.“Silver is the only commodity that is not reaching its [historic] highs, and it has reached [those highs] on two separate occasions, back in 1980 and 2011. I think we’re going to see that high breached in the cycle, and when it does, it’s going to wake up the market. Once it breaks through the $50 level, I think that it’s going to get up to the $100 level pretty quickly,” Neumeyer told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
When the lumber to gold ratio spikes, it's usually a signal that risk on sentiment will remain strong, said Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Toroso Investments. Gayed has been tracking the lumber to gold ratio as part of his Lead-Lag report, and his studies have found that peaks and troughs usually lead equity rallies and declines, respectively. However, given the spike in lumber prices, it's only a matter of time before prices mean revert downward, meaning a stock market correction could be on the horizon.
Wheaton Precious Metals affirmed that the company is primarily a precious metal business despite announcing first production from a cobalt stream from Voisey's Bay. CEO Randy Smallwood spoke to Kitco on Friday. The cobalt deal was first announced in 2018. The company's Q1 was Thursday. Wheaton's revenue was $324 million in the first quarter of 2021, representing a 27% increase from the first quarter of 2020 due primarily to an equivalent increase in the average realized gold price. The company affirmed year-end guidance.
Ethereum's use case extends beyond simply investing and speculation. Jason Lau, COO of OKCoin, discusses the second largest crypto's utility and evolution.
Bitcoin is digital and that's its fundamental weakness, said Royalty Gold CEO David Garofalo in a conversation with Kitco on Tuesday. Garofalo said gold is physical, which makes it more secure while cryptocurrencies will inevitably succumb to market forces. "It's inevitable that we'll see new entrants on the cryptocurrency side, and that really undermines the whole scarcity concept that Bitcoin is trying to espouse. It's just zeros and ones at the end of the day," said Garofalo.
The Metals Company has over $500 million pipeline to fund the company through to small-scale commercial production, said CEO Gerard Barron who spoke to Kitco on Thursday. The Metals Company was formerly named DeepGreen. A March financing valued the company at about $2.9 billion. Barron told Kitco he sees around $570 million total from the raise that will fund the company. The Metals Company plans to collects polymetallic nodules containing cobalt, nickel, manganese and copper from the ocean floor.
Peter Grandich, founder of Peter Grandich & Co., discusses what he believes are the asset classes that are critically overvalued right now. "We're in some very, very deep troubled times, perhaps the most troubled times for America, ever," Grandich told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
Residential real estate has continued to boom during the pandemic, with the Canadian market taking the lead in growth. Alex Kenjeev, President of O’Leary Ventures, discusses whether or not the housing market has reached bubble territory.
Size matters, and Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE:SSW) may find scale in its home country. Company CEO Neal Froneman recently spoke to Kitco News. The company is headquartered in South Africa. Froneman said a $20 billion market capitalization is more relevant and investable for the broader market. Sibanye is sitting at $12.5 billion. To build size, Froneman noted that South African miners are trading at a discount compared to their North American peers. Business Day reported that a tie up of the country's top miners—Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti along with Sibanye - would be in the national interest.
Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoing, and Saifedean Ammous, author of ‘The Bitcoin Standard’, continue the conversation in part 2 of this debate. The focus is on Bitcoin's role as a global currency, and the possibility of creating a currency board based on cryptocurrencies.
How can Bitcoin be valued, and what is its worth? In part 1 of this panel discussion, Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoing, and Saifedean Ammous, author of ‘The Bitcoin Standard’, debate Bitcoin’s utility, history, and its “fundamental value.”
The last time copper and base metals sustained a multi-year bull rally was in the early 2000s during a period of rapid Chinese industrialization. China is still the world's top consumer of copper and base metals, and the country is about to experience a boom similar to what they had in the early 2000s, only with the "electrification" movement, said Gianni Kovacevic, CEO of CopperBank.
Gold is down, at one point, 0.6% on Monday, but traders and investors alike need to understand that this really is not a big move, said Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at https://TheTechnicalTraders.com. “Today, we’re just this tiny little red bar, this average, usually we see a quarter of a percent, or half a percent move in gold, and today we’re down only half a percent,” Vermeulen said. Gold miners, which usually lead the bullion in price action, have another 10% or so of downside before prices rebound, he added.
Ray Dalio, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, recently wrote that policy makers short on money will likely raise taxes and prevent capital flows into “other assets” like gold and Bitcoin. E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty and author of “Why Gold, Why Now” said that the government already has the tools to do this. “Everyone gets this idea that the [government] will raid your house and look for your gold. It’s not necessary. All you have to do is limit the ability to transact gold in the legal market, and then you assess an excise tax,” Tucker said.
More than the threat of inflation, the Federal Reserve is really concerned about unemployment and underemployment, said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures. "[The Fed] doesn't really expect inflation, that doesn't give them reason to move but they do want to see full employment," Baruch said. "The U3 rate is about 6%. It's the U6 rate that is 11% right now, and that's the underemployment, so people that have fallen out of the work force, and that's what worries the Fed and that's one of the reasons why they should remain dovish."
The Federal Reserve has announced that the Fed Funds rate will remain low until at least 2023. Both gold and the equity markets rallied in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovishness, but can the turnaround in prices last? Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com analyzes the next key price levels.
The 10-year yield rose to 14-month highs on Thursday at 1.75%, erasing the gains in gold price yesterday following the Federal Reserve's statements. Lobo Tiggre of The Independent Speculator, said that without yield curve control, the 10-year Treasury note could rise to as high as 2%, which would cause the markets to "break". Short-term, gold has more downside, he said.
Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, are minting new millionaires overnight, and this brand new asset class is not only here to stay, but on the way to revolutionizing commerce as we know it, said Ian Rogers, chief experience officer of Ledger.
The silver squeeze movement is still ongoing, said Ivan Bayoukhi, founder of WallStreetSilver, whose number one goal is to wake up “billions of people to getting silver.”
Should sentiment for the precious metals return to a level more in line with the historical average, demand for gold will skyrocket, Rick Rule, director of Sprott in a panel discussion with Amir Adnani, chairman of GoldMining and CEO of UEC. Adnani added that investors in the resource sector need to take a long-term view for their time horizon.
Ed Egilinsky, head of alternative investments at Direxion, discusses the top innovators in the technology space, as well as how precious metals stacks up with other commodities in the current economic environment.
Aside from the emergence of electric vehicles, the demand for raw commodities from China is still a dominant driver for metals prices, said Colin Hamilton, commodity analyst at BMO Capital Markets.
Gold’s role as the primary inflation hedge has been replaced by other assets, as investors bet on raw commodities to outperform during a reflationary environment, said Phil Streible, chief market strategist of Blue Line Futures. “Typically, [gold and inflation expectation] do correlate together because gold has historically been a great asset class for inflation,” Streible said. “However, when all asset classes, and in specifically commodities, basically went to unprecedented lower levels, things like lumber, crude oil are going negative, everything from your grain markets, copper, everything got smashed one year ago today…the price of those commodities have really taken off on the upside.”
Agnico Eagle has continued to grow their portfolio through acquisitions. The company acquired TMAC Resources in early 2021.
News that GameStop is looking to digitize its stores has driven the stock up to January levels, but Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist said that on a technical basis, the stock looks overbought.
Earnings will continue to improve, and the rise in equity markets reflected the strength of the stocks themselves and had nothing to do with monetary stimulus, said Brian Belski, chief market strategist of BMO Capital Markets. "Stocks went up because they are the best asset in the world, and that’s why they went up," Belski said.
There is currently no uranium production happening in North America, which poses a national security threat to the nation, as nuclear power plants will need to rely on foreign sourcing of uranium, said Amir Adnani, CEO of UEC and chairman of GoldMining. Uranium is currently trading at $27.75 a pound, but miners like UEC need the price to rise to $40-$50 a pound before production becomes economical.
Yields cannot rise “hyperbolically” forever, and within the next 30 days they should mean revert, creating a very bullish environment for risk assets, said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. “The [10-year Treasury yield] has gone hyperbolic…it’s not like an airplane taking off, this is like a rocket going to space. Anytime you have something with a three-standard deviation move, it creates unexpected consequences in capital markets,” Holmes said “What we saw was the 10-year yield went above the S&P dividend yield and that automatically creates a flow of capital out of the stock market into bonds, and I think we’re going to get a correction here over the next 30 days, and that correction will be very, very positive for gold and silver, and the stock market, along with the crypto.”
A new commodity supercycle is showing signs of emerging, said Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares ETFs, and all commodities, the industrial, agricultural, precious, and energy sectors, will see a rise.
Historically, the gold miners have led the bullion market in price direction, and right now, the equities are suggesting a rebound in price is underway, said Pierre Lassonde, chairman emeritus of Franco-Nevada. "Right now, there is a bit of a discrepancy and it started about last week where in fact the gold equities are up when the gold bullion is down, so I'm kind of wondering whether or not we’re right at this particular point in the cycle where the equities are telling the bullion market that maybe there’s a turn coming," Lassonde said.
Patrick Victor, founder of No Nonsense Forex, and Ben Kennedy, Head of Business Development, ARYA Trading, discuss what it takes to excel in the trading world.
The 10-year yield has climbed to 1.56% Friday morning, but can rise to as high as 1.7% before the Federal Reserve steps in to intervene, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
The president and CEO of Fosterville South Exploration (TSX-V:FSX), Bryan Slusarchuk, likes to tout his neighbors in Victoria, Australia. Fosterville Gold Mine, owned by Kirkland Lake Gold, is one of the world's highest grade and lowest cost gold mines, and it is right beside Fosterville South Exploration. "At Fosterville South we've acquired and assembled over a multi-year process what we believe is the premier exploration ground in Victoria," said Slusarchuk, who spoke to Kitco last month.
Nominal yields rise on inflation fears, but beneath the hopes of an improving economy are deep, structural problems that will not recover anytime soon, said Todd Horwitz of BubbaTrading.com. Horwitz noted that most of the small businesses that were locked down will not be returning to business.
Both stocks and gold are showing technical chart patterns that suggest an imminent correction, said Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at TheTechnicalTraders.com. “It feels like the calm before the storm. I think this market, the stock market, is setting up for potentially a pretty big downdraft,” Vermeulen said.
The “honeymoon” phase of the stock market bull run is coming to a close, and as yields head even higher, stock indices could see a correction on the scale of 10-15%, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist of InTheMoneyStocks.com.
Bitcoin is still in a rapid adoption phase, with the peak of the current cycle at $200,000, said Greg King, founder and CEO of Osprey Funds. “I think we’re in a natural consolidation phase. Our view is that Bitcoin is in a bull run. It’s sort of in its fourth of fifth big bull leg of Bitcoin. If you look at it historically, as it’s gone through phases of adaptation, it puts in an all-time high that holds for at least 200 days, and once that happens, when that all-time high is pierced again, which we just had in November at $20,000, on average, the next bull run is a 900% return,” King said.
The net effect of trying to squeeze the silver is that "you will lose your money" said Jeff Christian, managing partner of CPM Group.
Gold has held a strong relationship with inflation expectations but more importantly, gold tracks real interest rates, so if nominal rates rise faster than inflation, then gold would see pressure, said Lobo Tiggre of The Independent Speculator.
Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals, breaks down the gold market’s recent price action and the next key support and resistance levels to watch for.
It's only a matter of time before Bitcoin "death spirals" down to its true intrinsic value, which is $0, said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.
Many of the factors that have held back platinum in the past, including demand, liquidity in the futures markets, and visibility, are now becoming tailwinds for the price, said Trevor Raymond, director of research at the World Platinum Investment Council. Platinum has risen 13% since the start of 2021.
On a technical basis, the sentiment for gold is undeniably bearish, said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com.
Volatility is built into the “DNA” of cryptocurrencies; investors and traders should not worry about the price drops earlier this week, said Frank Holmes, executive chairman of HIVE Blockchain Technologies.
Speaking on Ethereum and DeFi, Holmes said “I think that this is a phenomenal industry, and there’s going to be many new derivatives come from it, and it has nothing but blue sky, but extremely volatile.”
Platinum and silver have fundamental tailwinds from both rising inflation and improving economic conditions that will propel these metals to grow faster than gold in 2021, said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures.
Rising yields and a stronger dollar from earlier this week have put pressure on gold, but the long-term macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed for the metal’s bullish outlook, said Peter Hug, global trading director, who added that we are still in the early innings of a bull cycle. “I think gold has been mirroring the dollar and the dollar has been strengthening in the beginning of this week on the 10-year [yield] surging. Last Friday when we spoke the 10-year was trading around 1.12%, 1.14%, it’s now at 1.32%. So the yields on the 10-year have been going up this week and that has moved some assets into the dollar,” Hug said.
If you haven’t already bought into Bitcoin, or even the recent Dogecoin hype, it’s probably too late, and you should start looking into DeFi products instead, said Clem Chambers of InvestorsHub.com.
Gold is not purely an inflation hedge, but more of a hedge against real interest rates, and rising bond yields that have outpaced the growth of inflation expectations has been weighing down on the precious metal, said Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Research. “What gold really does is it protects you from an environment where inflation is much higher than the bond yields, and that’s what we’ve seen in 2020 is that gold over the past couple of years had a pretty big appreciation because it was protecting against that. Now, since about late summer 2020, negative real yields have been roughly flat,” Alden said.
Bitcoin does not fit the narrow definition of what a Ponzi scheme is, said Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, who said that $50,000 is the next resistance level.
There are roughly 2 ounces of silver and more than 100 kg of copper in an electric vehicle like Tesla, said Gianni Kovacevic, CEO of CopperBank. Kovacevic said that it is unlikely automobile manufacturers have been trying to suppress the prices of silver and copper. “As for electric vehicle manufacturers having some sort of a cabal to suppress the price of silver, I don’t buy into that. It’s a commodity, it does have some monetary features, which is unique to itself, but there’s going to be a lot of demand for silver,” he said, adding that silver is going to be more scarce. “I would say that you’re not going to be betting against it.” According to the Silver Institute, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) consume 0.8-1.6oz (25-50g) of silver.
The current bull market cycle in the metals is far from over, and the Federal Reserve would need to reverse course on monetary policy before we see a top in prices, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
Relative to the price of gold, gold and silver miners are at their lowest valuations since 2016. David Erfle of TheJuniorMinerJunky.com explains the macroeconomic forces behind low valuations and what this means for investors.
Until the Federal Reserve reverses course on monetary policy, the current bull market in equities, the longest in U.S. history, is only going to continue, said Mark Skousen, editor in chief of Forecasts and Strategies.
Tesla has stated in its latest annual report that the company has updated its investment policy to now include Bitcoin, gold, and “other assets” as possible investments. While this move may move the price of Bitcoin, it would have limited direct effect on gold prices, said Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network.
If every company in the S&P 500 puts 10% of their cash into Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency then becomes a trillion dollar market, said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com. While gold is climbing slow and steadily as opposed to Bitcoin’s sudden burst into new all-time highs, similar to the “tortoise and the hare”, Bitcoin has higher upside potential in the short-term, with an upside target of $61,000, and a downside correction floor of $39,000, Wagner said.
Individuals and institutions have different solutions when it comes to protecting cryptocurrency wallet keys, said Diogo Monica, president of Anchorage.
If Bitcoin retraces $20,000 and falls below that key support level, then “something is wrong” said Florian Grummes, managing director of Midas Touch Consulting. In the medium term, investors can expect the price to touch $50,000 to $100,000, with the current bull cycle targeting $300,000 a coin, Grummes said. “If Bitcoin does the same thing in the last bull market in 2016 and 2017, we’re going to $320,000 this time,” he said.
Ethereum, while outperforming Bitcoin in 2020, has been living in the larger cryptocurrency's shadow, but it's only a matter of time before prices double again from here, said Brian Norton, COO of MyEtherWallet.
GameStop shares fall by 60% on Tuesday, as the price hit $90. "I think the GameStop move is pretty much done," says Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders.
The silver price dropped 10% on Tuesday as the CME raised margin requirements for silver contracts. Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals, said that the silver squeeze attempt has now “backfired” as bullion inventories have run dry as a result, and with premiums up and few physical products to sell, it is now even more difficult for retail investors to push the price up.
The demand surge of silver has completely overwhelmed the supply, and orders are not able to be filled now, said David Morgan of TheMorganReport.
Silver climbs $1.64 as of the 6:00 pm EST market open on Sunday as demand surges, pushing the price to 6-month highs. Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that a $40 to $50 target from here for silver is not impossible.
Bitcoin is one of the most unequally distributed assets in the world, with just under half a percent of all bitcoin investors owning more than 80% of all bitcoins, and should they liquidate, the market could see a substantial sell-off, said Ryan Giannotto, director of Research at GraniteShares ETFs.
Gold’s reaction to bad economic data continues to be weakness; the precious metal is down almost 1% on Friday. Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals said that it is only a matter of time before the metal reverts course.
Opportunities lie for base metals to outperform gold this year, said Kai Hoffmann, CEO of Soar Financial Group. “With Biden moving into the White House, the Green initiative has been taking a lot of the news, so nickel, cobalt, and uranium, to a degree,” Hoffmann said. “Gold might be left behind a little bit in terms of the attractiveness [relative to] the other commodities.”
An artificially boosted economic recovery will come by spring time, but the equities markets are still in danger of a sharp pullback, said Gerald Celente, publisher of the Trends Journal.
More retirees are rushing into equities, especially stocks with high dividend yields, but the sentiment on equities markets has now reached mania levels, said Peter Grandich, founder of Peter Grandich & Co.
Given the political and economic environment that we’re in, gold should be much higher, said E.B. Tucker, author of “Why Gold, Why Now.” Tucker had predicted gold to hit $2,500 an ounce by year-end of 2020, he is now updating his views and sees the price to hit that level by next year.
As bitcoin price fell by 20% on Monday, some traders are anxious to know if now is the time to buy. Todd Horwitz of BubbaTrading.com is waiting for this pullback to continue some more.
Investors are dumping lower yielding assets like gold to buy higher volatility securities like Tesla shares and bitcoin, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at In The Money Stocks, but Soloway is not selling his gold yet. Soloway’s comments come as Friday’s nonfarm payroll report showed a loss of 140,000 jobs in December, the most since the start of the pandemic.
A Democrat lead in the Georgia Runoffs election should be positive for gold, as more stimulus can be expected from a Democrat-controlled Senate, but instead, gold prices fell today.
When something goes straight up, it usually comes straight back down said Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, referring to bitcoin's recent parabolic move upwards. Gold sees upside to the $2,400 an ounce level in 2021 but faces risks of a possible stock market correction that could drag the metal down.
Whether the Democrats or Republicans take the two Senate seats in Georgia will determine how much stimulus the economy will get, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
The "future" is already happening now, and copper stands to benefit the most from the electrification of our economy, said Gianni Kovacevic, CEO of CopperBank.
2021 is not going to be the year of another market crash, said Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors. In fact, the economy is expected to see a substantial rebound, followed by a rally in gold, stocks, and bitcoin.
Gold bullion and gold stocks are different asset classes that serve different purposes; the former is a currency that hedges against fiat currencies, while the latter is more risky and gives leverage to the metal, said Whitney George, president of Sprott Inc.
America is facing a generational crisis where younger people have no wealth built up and lack the financial literacy to do so, said Kevin O’Leary, star of Shark Tank and chairman of O'Shares ETFs. “In America today, there’s 100 million people that have nothing set aside for retirement,” O’Leary said. “That is a failure of financial literacy that started as far back as the 1970s.”
Kevin O’Leary, chairman of O’Shares ETFs and star of Shark Tank, said that the digitization of America is here to stay, even if the economy opens up again. O’Leary has sold off his commercial real estate holdings to redeploy capital into the technology, healthcare, and consumer service sectors. On gold, O’Leary sees the metal as a hedge against inflation, and contrary to what some analysts think, it will not be replaced by bitcoin anytime soon.
Commodities, including gold, have been seeing initial signs of a long-term bull supercycle, said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University.
The equities markets have reached a top and are due for a pullback by about 15% - 20% in the New Year, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at InTheMoneyStocks.com. “We’re now getting to a point where we have such inflated valuations that if you don’t get this monstrous beyond 35% earnings growth [that some analysts are forecast] then markets are going to sell-off pretty sharply,” Soloway said.
Northern Vertex (NEE.V) has announced a merger with Eclipse Gold Mining Corporation (EGLD.V). “Our goal has been organic growth but also growth through consolidation. This merger offers the shareholders of Eclipse an opportunity to be part of a producing mine, a mine that has been actively developed and has transitioned from exploration through the production of the last half a dozen years,” said Ken Berry, CEO of Northern Vertex.
With lockdowns resuming in Europe, concerns rise that London, a major vaulting center, will face logistical challenges in transporting and servicing gold and silver bullion, similar to what happened in March that led to shortages of the physical precious metals markets. Ruth Crowell, chief executive of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), said that vaults and service providers are more prepared this time around. “This is something we talk about in terms of potential market disruptions, and part of our role in terms of being that point of contact for the infrastructure providers here in London is talking to the vaults and the carriers about how are you ready…for COVID challenges as well as Brexit challenges. I think the overwhelming response is that they’re very prepared,” Crowell said. “And in some ways having had the challenges of the pandemic in March and April has made the market more resilient to those challenges up ahead.”
$10,000 gold price would mean the end of the financial system, as we know it. Peter Hug, Global Trading Director of Kitco Metals, talks about likely scenarios for inflation, the economy, gold, and silver for 2021.
Jaime Rogozinski founded WallStreetBets to create a forum for young traders to share trading ideas, especially those of higher risk. Today, it is the largest subreddit on trading, and one of the most popular online communities for young traders. Rogozinski shares his favorite trading anecdotes from the forum.
The broad equities index remains the only “threat” to gold and gold investors, said Rick Rule, president of Sprott U.S. The “existential crisis” facing the gold sector comes from the lack of exploration activity from miners.
Gold investors are prone to making common mistakes that can be detrimental to a portfolio, including excessive diversification, picking companies that don’t adhere to an investment objective, and not sticking with management teams with proven track records, said Rick Rule, president of Sprott U.S. “If I had just hung out with the Ross Beatys, the Bob Quartermains, the Robert Friedlands, the Lukas Lundins, all of them I’ve done business with, by the time I was 35 and not bothered with the rest of the universe, I would have worked less hard and made more money,” Rule said.
Gold has bounced back from its support level of the low $1,800s, and is on track to touch $1,920 by Christmas time, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco News.
Silver may be Thomas Kaplan's first love as he sees the potential for the precious metal to eventually push to $100 dollars; however, he is also not giving up on gold as he sees the yellow metal in the third-wave of a secular bull market that will take it "way past new highs." He noted that gold was in a strong uptrend well before the COVID-19 pandemic devastated the global economy. "All the pandemic has served to do is to make people now understand that the question of money and what is money when clearly it can be printed at will, he said. "The debasement of currencies is obviously very, very bullish for gold.”
For the first time in 20 years, Thomas Kaplan, CEO of Electrum Group, has launched a new public silver producer. In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, Kaplan talks about his silver and gold projects and his outlook for the precious metals. In November, The Electrum Group went public with Gatos Silver (NYSE: GATO, TSX: GATO), which raised $170 million in its IPO. It was also one of the first precious metals companies listed directly on the New York Stock Exchange. Looking at commodity prices, Kaplan said that gold and silver are just at the start of a significant bull market. "Once silver stabilizes and gold is going up as some monetary metals, silver then starts to follow gold and then it gets octane and it surpasses gold," he said. "That's what happened during the financial crisis and we are starting to see that again."
Even though a bear case for gold is unlikely to happen, investors should not be sailing with their eyes closed and ignore the possibility of a pivot in fiscal and monetary policies, which would drag gold prices down, said Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator. “It’s not something that keeps me up at night. It is something worth thinking about,” Tiggre said. “Here’s the scary thing, [gold] could go quite low. If you look at the big correction in the middle of the 1970s bull market, that was on the order of 50%.”
There’s simply too much money injected into the monetary system by central banks to allow a sizeable bear market to take place soon, said Jim Rogers, investor and chairman of Rogers Holdings. “Many stocks in the U.S. are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. market are developing a beginning of a bubble, but many parts of the markets are not, that’s why I suspect [this rally] is going to go on for a while,” Rogers said.
Another 40% move in gold in 2021 is "very doable" says Frank Holmes, who is looking for a range of $2,200 to $2,600 an ounce. Cryptocurrencies will continue to do well; Bitcoin will be driven by increased adoption, while Ethereum benefits from the latest developments in DeFi.
Bitcoin is like a call option to the emergence of cryptocurrencies in the world, said Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision. "I've never seen anything like what is going on right now. You have a limited supply asset that now is a globally recognized brand that everybody knows, but not everybody understands. What's happening now is institutions are coming into the space," Pal said. More information about cryptocurrencies from Raoul Pal can be accessed at Real Vision Crypto: https://www.realvision.com/crypto.
Bitcoin may have hit new all-time highs, but not enough momentum is here to sustain this rally, and a pullback towards $15,000 to $16,000 may happen before the price climbs higher still, said Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network. Mashinsky has correctly predicted that bitcoin would breach the 2017 highs this year, which it did earlier this week.
If Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, had to choose one place to make a 5-year investment, it would be in emerging markets. “Very simple asset allocation. I’d buy bonds in case this economic growth doesn’t appear because the virus goes on longer, the vaccine takes longer to roll out, and we’ve seen shut downs in Europe and I think we’re going to get them in the U.S.. So buy bonds and buy emerging markets,” Pal told Kitco News. “If growth comes back, you’ll make a huge amount of money in emerging markets.”
As the economy recovers, consumers are likely to rotate spending out of retail items and into other, bigger discretionary purchases, like vacations, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at InTheMoney Stocks.
Sustained low interest rates, coupled with large levels of debt and an eventual return to inflation will be the dominant drivers of gold in 2021, said Kevin Rich, consultant to the Perth Mint.
From 2022 on, I’d be buying gold hand hand in fist, it’s going to hold up better than most commodities,” said Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent, who is calling for gold to see its final rally to $2,200 an ounce next year before falling to multi-year lows until 2022. "I’m expecting gold to go up…when this crisis starts to build next year, it’s going to see more stimulus, it’s going to go up at first. I have a target of $2,200,” Dent said. “$2,200 is the strong resistance in the coming months and then crash back down to its 2015 lows, around $1,000.”
The cyclical bull market for equities is over; after December, stocks will begin a secular multi-year decline, starting with a 40% correction by April, said Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent. "If we see another new low in the stock market, I predict we are not going to see new highs on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, biotech, you pick anything...you're not going to see new highs on anything for decades," Dent said.
Gold has broken a critical support level, but there is not much downside left, said Alain Corbani, portfolio manager of Finance SA, who forecasts $2,500 an ounce for gold's upside target.
The metal will be caught between conflicting macroeconomic forces next year: slightly higher negative real interest rates, but a weakening U.S. dollar. While gold has a negative correlation with negative real rates, ultimately, the dollar will prevail as the dominant driver of gold during this current phase of the commodity cycle.
What is the short-term trend for gold? Is the long-term outlook still positive? How much, if any, of the metals should be in your portfolio now? Peter Hug, global trading director, answers these questions.
Bitcoin is becoming 'digital gold' and there is a case to be made for the recent price surge to continue to $100,000 by 2021, says Hong Fang, CEO of OKCoin, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world.
Fang argues that should bitcoin catch up to even 25% of gold's global market capitalization of $9 trillion, that figure would amount to a price range for BTC of $80,000 to $100,000.
2020 has seen a “phenomenal” inflow of gold-backed exchange-traded funds, fueling an investment-led rally, but while ETF inflows are still expected to be strong, 2020’s level of inflows would be hard to keep up.
Jim Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, said that gold will average a price of $1,965 an ounce in 2021, owing to competing macroeconomic forces; accommodative monetary policy will continue to provide tailwinds, but an unwinding of geopolitical risk from a Biden Administration will ease the appetite for gold.
“Gold is sensitive to geopolitical risk,” he said. “If we’re going to get some rapprochement on the trade issues between the United States and the other countries, and it’s not just one country, it could be from several, and we also get a charm offensive from the Biden Administration to U.S. allies or to others, and the geopolitical risks come down and there’s progress made on the trade front, then that would be negative for gold.”
Both the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are categorized as messenger RNA vaccines, and the technology behind this is relatively new, said Dr. Joe Schwarcz, director of the Office for Science and Society at McGill University.
Schwarcz outlines the process by which Pfizer and Moderna conducted their vaccine trials, and explains why vaccines are very low-risk.
Gold price dropped $100, or 4.5% on Monday as Pfizer announced that its COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective. The S&P 500 climbed 2.9%, the Dow is up 3.8%, and the NASDAQ is up only 1%, dragged down by companies that benefit from the work from home culture, like Zoom (-12%) and Netflix (-4%).
Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals, said that these moves factor in expectations that are a bit ‘premature’.
"If Biden is sworn in, he'll shut the economy down this winter more than Trump would have. USD goes under the bus, stagflation is likely. They'll blame COVID-19, but for once, socialism might also get some of the blame for the trouble it causes..." said Lobo Tiggre of the Independent Speculator in a Tweet made last week.
Nothing has fundamentally changed in the economy to warrant a sustained rally in the stock markets, said Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at InTheMoneyStocks.com, speaking with Kitco News at 3:45 pm EST on Monday.
“I don’t believe anything major has changed. We knew a vaccine was going to come, the projections are still first quarter, early second quarter,” he said. “The same thing with Biden coming into the White House, it doesn’t change a lot of the economics of the market, so it does concern me and I used it to put on shorts today.”
The Dow Jones rallied 800 points in the biggest single day gain in 5 months on Monday following Pfizer's announcement that their COVID-19 vaccine is 90% effective.
With the Republicans set to take the Senate and the Democrats already having the House, Matt Gertken, vice president of Geopolitical Strategy of BCA Research anticipates a divided government that is likely to result in no tax increases but potentially smaller, and delayed fiscal stimulus.
With odds now stacked heavily in Joe Biden’s favor, it’s now looking more likely that the next four years will see a Democratic president in the White House.
E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty and “Why Gold? Why Now? The War Against Your Wealth and How to Win It” said that gold and gold royalty stocks still remain the ultimate weapons against the “war against wealth.”
Tucker said that bigger government, more government intervention, and low interest rates are all likely to persist during a Biden Administration, creating tailwinds for gold.
Tucker maintains $2,500 an ounce by the end of the year as his gold price target.
One of the main lessons from the last financial recession of 2008 is that the U.S. economy did not see double-digit inflation rates when quantitative easing was launched, said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics of Johns Hopkins University.
"All the gold bugs in the world said that the Fed was exploding its balance sheet, the narrow measure of money was going up very fast, we're going to have hyperinflation. No, we didn't have hyperinflation because the Fed is a very small part of the broad money picture, and broad money never grew very fast, it never grew more than about 5% per annum," Hanke told Kitco News.
The stimulus will happen no matter who wins and that is good for metals and gold, said Peter Hug, Kitco’s head of the precious metal division. Hug spoke to Kitco News Thursday as Republican and Democrat leadership continued negotiating a COVID-19 stimulus package in excess of $2 trillion. Some Republican senators are holding out, but Hug said a deal will happen because there is too much pressure from businesses and the states.
Presidential election uncertainty is going to continue to impact all markets, including gold, said David Erfle of JunioMinerJunky.com. Here's all the risks to look out for.
Not only are macroeconomic conditions still positive for gold, but the scarcity of supply also runs in the metal’s favor, according to Rahul Paul, president of Radisson Mining Resources (TSXV: RDS.V).
“Because of the lack of spending over the last several years, we haven’t seen as many new discoveries, so we’re now beginning to see a scarcity premium. We’re essentially running out of gold reserves, which is why investors, for that matter large producers, are now looking at and paying more attention to exploration companies like Radisson,” Paul said.