The Heresy Financial Podcast: Recent Episodes
Joseph Brown
Real economics and advanced investing. Teaching how money actually works so that anyone can learn how to make money - and keep it.
Right now, investors and markets are both banking on a Fed pivot coming sooner than expected. This is because of major indications of economic weakness around the world, including major banks like Credit Suisse being in major trouble. Because of this, markets have been pricing in a higher likelihood of a Fed pivot coming sooner, including stock markets starting to rebound heavily and yields being down. But I'm going to point out how the market anticipating and trying to front run this Fed pivot actually makes the Fed's job of tightening easier and means they can go longer without a pivot.
There's a lot of disagreement right now about the financial position and the health of Credit Suisse and whether or not they're about to fail and start taking down other banks with them and causing more and more problems. So, I'm going to settle the debate for you and give you the answer on exactly the position that Credit Suisse is in right now and what people should be concerned about, how far things might go before somebody like a central bank steps in.
Did you know that over half of Americans are stuck in credit card debt? According to a recent poll 60% of Americans have been stuck in credit card debt for a year, or longer. Let me be very clear with you. This is not the time to be stuck in credit card debt. Not when rates are rising, when liquidity is dropping, when the economy is rolling over, headed into a deep recession. And the people who have the power to turn the lights on or off are saying we are not making things easier any time soon. We are seeking unemployment. We are seeking a recession, lower demand, higher interest rates, economic pain to stop inflation. This is not the time to be in debt.
Is the United States currently being successful at inflating its debt away? Well, it depends on who you ask. If you look at standard economics, it would say that the government can borrow money. And then when it spends that money, as long as it spends it in the right way, that's going to stimulate economic growth. And then that economic growth will result in more tax revenues, meaning that that debt paid for itself, and then some. One of the byproducts of this is that prices go up along the way. And so many people say that the government can just inflate its debt away, and that's why it chooses inflation. But we get into a problem with economies when the public debt exceeds 90% of GDP. So where is the United States and where is it in the cycle of trying to inflate its debt away since it's got a lot of debt and we've got a lot of inflation. Which one is winning?
Is anything even real anymore? Well, it turns out that increasingly the answer is no if it is an official statistic or number published by any government organization, and that is especially true of the recent jobs report. In this video, we are going to look through a few key metrics that the government and the Federal Reserve are looking at in terms of jobs and where unemployment is currently at in the United States of America. We're going to show how the situation is actually a lot worse than they think and this is especially dangerous because they're using these job numbers to continue to tighten. So, they're saying the jobs market is strong so we can still combat inflation and continue to tight when in reality, the jobs market is probably pretty weak.
Breaking news, the UK is breaking! The UK just had a major move in financial markets with number one, the Bank of England reversing course, pivoting and now committed to unlimited quantitative easing, buying up as many government bonds as needed to stop the financial crisis that was unfolding within hours centered around pension funds, invested in government debt with massive leverage. This is all tied in as well to the tax cuts that were recently posed from the government that were causing a big strain on financial markets through increased borrowing costs to the government. And I'm going to explain everything that's going on right now and what might happen next.
The Bank of International Settlements just came out with a new way to measure the market conditions for key areas of financial markets, including the U.S. Treasury market. And what this indicator is showing right now is that the volatility and the lack of liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is now worse than it was during the great financial crisis when Lehman collapsed.
Japan is in trouble. Their yen is collapsing as they are trying to maintain yield curve control. And so, they intervened to prop up the value of the yen for the first time in decades last week. Now, it turns out that the Federal Reserve may be assisting them. As Bloomberg points out, Japan may have a pile of dollars it can tap at the Fed's reverse repurchase facility, accessible by foreign central banks. However, I think what Bloomberg is talking about here is actually the opposite of what's going on at the reverse repo facility. There is not enough evidence that Japan has any significant amount of money with the Fed. Instead, it looks like the Fed is going to have to be actively assisting Japan with dumping those Treasuries, using the opposite the repo facility, specifically the one for foreign central banks.
The price of cars especially used cars, or one of those surprise things that went up in value during 2020 and continued to go up in value during 2021. It seemed like there was a mad scramble to buy any car you could at any price, and they just went up. In fact, used cars, outperformed things like Bitcoin, gold, stocks, and real estate. It was absolute craziness. So, the question now is, was that sustainable? Is that going to continue? And what is happening now, given the fact that many people are starting to talk about a sub-prime auto loan crisis or people are starting to be delinquent and default on their auto loans?
Interest rates have been skyrocketing recently because the Federal Reserve is not blinking in the face of struggling Americans. They're trying to crush the inflation monster regardless of how many 401ks they destroy along the way. This means that mortgage rates are going up; car loan rates are going up; credit card rates are going up. And key here, the United States government's debt interest rates are going up. But it's not as you might think, because that's making many people ask the question, how high can interest rates go before the federal government defaults and can't pay their bills? Well, the answer is really a different question. The question is not how high can interest rates go, but how long can interest rates stay high?
It's happening... maybe. Japan might have just started the global treasury liquidation. We've been talking a little bit on this channel recently about how the United States Treasury is the foundation of the entire global financial system. But what happens when you build your house on a foundation of sand? Eventually, the house comes crumbling down, and the way that starts in the financial system is by the world getting rid of Treasurys. Japan has historically been one of the largest treasury holders. They have not been buying them recently. And now, because of the problems with their currency, they've intervened to stop the collapse of their currency. And they may have just started at the beginning of the end of the current global financial system.
If you take money from the government in any form, whether that's Social Security, a pension or something else. You may very well soon not be able to receive those payments anymore if you do not sign up for the United States Central Bank Digital Currency coming soon.
The coming automation revolution will take your job. It is inevitable. It will take your jobs someday, as it will take everyone's jobs. But the flip side is it's going to make you wealthy. And I'm going to show you how.
Federal Reserve just concluded their September meeting, gave their press release, and Powell is increasingly sounding like the new Volcker. In fact, he said in the statement, “We will keep at it until the job is done, giving an echo back to Volcker, keeping at it”. Echoing the title of Paul Volcker's biography, ‘Keeping at it’, and Volcker's legacy of crushing inflation in the seventies by continuously raising rates until the job was done.
The White House just released a new framework, the first comprehensive framework from the government on its recommendations for regulating cryptocurrencies and advancing the research and development of a CBDC, a (central bank digital currency). You'll want to stick around through the end of this one. It has some scary recommendations.
The United States Treasury market is supposed to be the most liquid in the world. The Treasury is supposed to be the most stable financial instrument available around the globe. Yet the next black swan event could very easily be the US Treasury going, no bid. Liquidity in the bond market could dry up so severely that there are no more buyers at any price for United States Treasuries.
What is your biggest expense in your budget? Do you think it might be food? Do you think it might be gas? Do you think it might be clothes? Well, for the average American, last year in 2021, the biggest line-item expense on their budget was taxes. Americans had to give more money to the American government than they spent on necessities like food, energy, and clothing. And here is the kicker, it was not just a little bit bigger than any one of those categories. Americans spent more on taxes than on all those categories combined. The American government is a giant tumor on the backs of middle-class Americans, and it is draining them of their resources.
If you are watching this video, you are probably one of the elite few people who understand the massive benefits that could come to this world if we were to move back to a sound money system. Some people think that looks like Bitcoin, some people think that looks like gold, other people have opinions that it looks like something else. But for the most part, most people would agree that moving to a sound money system is better than a fiat money system where the supply can expand or contract by the sole discretion of a few unelected bureaucrats. And they do so in a way that causes malinvestment, misallocation of funds, and a destruction of wealth over time. But one thing that is largely not considered is how sound money systems actively discourage investing compared to the system that we have today. And I'm going to show you why that's actually not a bad thing. It's a feature, not a bug.
Japan's not doing too hot these days. Their currency is collapsing and at the same time, they're experiencing a record spike in their trade deficit. Now, for Japan, this is a big deal. It's not like the United States where a trade deficit is just the norm and what we expect to always have every single year for decades and decades. No, in Japan, they usually have a trade surplus. So, the fact that their currency has collapsed owing as well as almost failing in their bond market by trying to peg their government bond rates in a range, their yield curve control with that also feeling and now their trade deficit spiraling out of control. Japan is not looking too good these days.
When you hear the word ‘monopoly,’ what kind of image does that conjure up in your mind? For many people, when they hear the word monopoly, they think of John D. Rockefeller, the Vanderbilts, and Carnegie Steel. And they think of these titans of industry that were exploiting the populations, taking money from them by no choice of their own, and the government decided to ride in on its white horse like a knight in shining armor and introduced antitrust laws and has been enforcing them ever since to stop the existence of monopolies. Because free markets, of course, are the things that produce the monopolies, and the government is the savior to protect people from them. I am here to show you today that monopolies do not exist in free markets, and any monopolies that do exist only because of the government, not the other way around.
Bonds market liquidity is drying up very quickly here, and it could cause disruptions in the Federal Reserve's plan to drain assets off of their balance sheet. We've been hearing them talk about QT, selling assets off their balance sheet, unwinding aggressively and quickly. But all that could change if we have enough chaos start in the bond markets due to there being no liquidity. This means the Fed is left with two options on how to manage this. One of them would be using the reverse repo facility to manage this. The other one would just be to stop QT, reverse and start up QE yet again.
The August inflation numbers are out, and they came in much worse than expected. The expectations for month over month inflation were that they would move down 0.1% and in fact, they moved up 0.1%. Also, year over year, inflation came in higher than expected and it wasn't isolated to any specific category. The price increases were broad over pretty much every category. This means, coupled with some other indicators that we're going to look at, the Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to raise rates by 0.75% next week, and there's a good chance they might actually increase their rate hikes to a 1% hike. This means much more aggressive tightening from the Fed. So, brace for impact.
Is your job safe? Well, it may not be if the Federal Reserve gets their way. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that “we need to act now forthrightly, strongly, as we have been doing, my colleagues and I are strongly committed to this project and will keep at it until the job is done.” What job is that? Fighting inflation. The only problem with that is that inflation may only be stopped at the cost of you losing your job. Considering that the U.S. may need a seven and a half percent unemployment rate just to curb inflation, which means that the Fed is strongly committed to fighting inflation until the job is done, which also means until your job is gone.
How much would you pay me for a dollar? Now, at first glance, this might sound like a preposterous question, but when you dive down deeper, you're really answering the question of fundamental analysis. It's how to determine the value of something. Because if I ask you, “hey, how much would you pay me for a dollar?” your questions should be in response. When will I get the dollar? What is the likelihood that I will get that dollar? Will I get that dollar more than once over a period of time? Do I get that dollar immediately plus interest? What is the likelihood that that dollar will stick around? There are tons of questions about this. Now, again, it might sound ridiculous asking how much you'd pay for a dollar. But if I asked you, how much would you pay for ten ounces of silver? Well, suddenly that question doesn't sound as ridiculous, because if you've ever bought silver, the prices for ten ounces or one ounce of silver can vary and go all over the map. Right now, the spot price of silver is about $18, but this one ounce coin of silver costs about $35. But this ten ounce brick of silver only costs about $25. So, if I ask you, “how much would you pay for something?” the answer is not exactly clear. And to arrive at the correct answer, you have to do a little bit of fundamental analysis to understand the question, “How much are you paying for? How much is something worth?” What is the value that you are buying? And so, in this video, we are going to look at the proper way to buy silver right now, because premiums are so ridiculous, and how you can accumulate more silver over time without actually having to pay more money just by playing the premiums. And a sneak peek at how to buy silver below the current spot price.
Do you know what a central bank digital currency is or how a CBDC might actually work? Plenty of people are talking about CBDCs today, but most people do not understand how it's actually different from money today. Because as we look around and we make our payments, we get our paychecks, and we send money, it is all digital anyway. So, what is the difference between today's money and a central bank digital currency, and why is it that I always say that a CBDC is a tyrant's wet dream?
Are you aware there is currently a global energy crisis? Of course you are. It's almost anything anybody can talk about, especially if you live somewhere like Europe, where the power firms are currently going through margin calls, meaning about one and a half trillion euros. Or if you live somewhere like California, where Governor Newsom just recently told Californians to turn up their thermostats to 78 degrees and not use major appliances during the middle of the day because otherwise, they risk massive blackouts. Or if you live in Germany, where they're currently keeping nuclear power plants online and starting to burn coal because of the depth of their energy crisis, this is because, over the last few decades, fossil fuels have slowly but surely become insufficient for our energy needs, while renewable sources of energy like wind and solar are completely unreliable. And finally, energy sources like nuclear have been so underdeveloped that they're nowhere near large enough to support our current energy needs. So why has this happened over the last few decades? Well, it's not because of de-globalization, and it's not because of globalization, and it's not because of climate change, and it's not because of war. The real cause, the root cause is fiat currency. That's right. When you trace these things back to the root, fiat currency is the source of the current global energy crisis. And I'm going to prove to you how.
Do you know what the Bible actually says about wealth? Most people are not aware that the Bible talks about wealth, and they think that if it does mention it, it's negatively saying, “hey, you're just supposed to give it all away”. In fact, this is not true. The reality is that the Bible mentions money more than literally any other word in the entire Bible. And so, if you are interested in what one of the oldest texts that people have looked to for wisdom for thousands of years has to say about wealth. Stick around.
If you are like most Americans, you are probably still feeling the pain at the gas pump. But not just because of that is because you're also feeling the pain when you go to the grocery store, you fill up your grocery cart with all the same groceries that you normally get, but it's costing you a lot more than it did last month and the month before, the month before that. And it has been about a year and a half to two years now of continuous price increases in all the stuff that everybody needs to buy. However, the dollar has been getting a lot stronger over the past year, it has gone up about 24%. This means that compared to other currencies, the United States dollar is doing extremely well. And on top of that, the fact that we import $3.4 trillion worth of stuff from other countries, leaving us with a deficit of 676 billion. We are currently exporting a lot of our inflation to other countries, and it is only a matter of time before this results in a sovereign debt crisis.
Did you know that the United States has not always had a central bank? In fact, the Federal Reserve was not started until 1914. Within just a few years of the Fed starting, we had a recession that was called the Great Depression in 1921. And just seven years after that, we had another one that since then is now called the Great Depression, because it was even worse than the first one. It also paid for unlimited spending that got us into two world wars, decades of military actions in countries all around the world, and all the dollars that we have exported overseas since the seventies. When we came off the gold standard have introduced hyperinflationary episodes all around the world, destabilized the global financial economy, and have brought us to the place now where we have the largest buildup of debt, the largest buildup of derivatives, the most fragile economy that this world has ever seen. The time is now to end the Fed, and I am going to show how that could be possible.
Are you ready for a central bank digital currency here in the States? Well, regardless of whether you are ready or not, the Federal Reserve has announced that next July in 2023, they will be launching the ‘Fed Now’ service, which will be the infrastructure for the American CBDC!
Have you ever heard anybody blame the Federal Reserve for all the problems saying, “hey, they kept interest rates too low for too long, causing the inflation and absent the intervention rates would be much higher”. I have been very guilty of saying this myself as well. But today we're going to take a look at a little bit of a contrarian view. By taking a look back at history for a much longer period of time, 700 years. We can see that interest rates have actually been falling for 700 years. This gives some evidence that interest rates may not be artificially low right now, or at least considering the long term trend of history. Maybe approaching zero at some point in the future and stay there permanently.
Since the 1980s, the global bond market has been in a bull market. That means, on average, for the last 40 years, bond prices have been moving higher while interest rates have been going down. But that has all reversed as, over the last couple of months, things have gotten out of hand, to say the least, economically speaking, around the world, and bonds are now in their first bear market in decades.
Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, just destroyed the arguments for a central bank digital currency. This is a huge shock to me because he's always advocated for policies that are anti-American. He was one of the key participants in orchestrating the bailout in the financial crisis. He then got a job back on Wall Street after that, (he came from Wall Street before). So, he's always been at the helm of pushing things that are good for him, good for the Treasury, good for the Fed, but not good for Americans. And this was true in 2020 as well, when he kept on pushing for more and more money, printing more and more easing, despite the fact that everybody who knew what was going on knew it was going to result in inflation, he said, "No, no, no", it won't result in inflation, but we have to give credit where credit is due because this is the last thing that I expected to come out of his mouth. He absolutely destroys the arguments for why America would ever need, or ever want a central bank digital currency. We are going to jump into why.
More shocking news for anybody who's expecting a quick bailout, a return to quantitative easing from the federal reserve. As the federal reserve just got the green light to go big from job openings. As we know, job openings are the key measure that the federal reserve is looking at to know whether they have gone too far with tightening or whether they have further to go. Because more job openings just came out than they expected, they got the green light to move faster on tightening.
Three years ago, the federal reserve started to bailout the financial system yet again (not with QE), when the repo market blew up and they started buying treasury bills to bailout the repo market. Now at the time they said this wasn’t QE because they said they were only buying bills, not regular treasuries. So far, they haven’t unwound back any of that bailout until this month. This month will be the first time that the federal reserve will sell back those bills to the market. So far in their tightening they haven’t let any of those bills go and now they’re going to start doing it. But why? Is it because they think the economy is strong enough to manage it, or because they’re trying even harder to withdraw liquidity out of the system?
The American government has gone on an absolute bender recently! With the last couple of years showing trillions of dollars in deficits, (not spending) but deficits! A deficit is spending beyond the income that you have. So, we’ve seen 6-7 trillion dollar budgets from the government, and it has caused some of the biggest inflation this country has seen in decades, and by some measures, it could be classified as the biggest inflation we’ve ever seen. Now we’re faced with the prospect of the federal reserve tightening to the point where we could expect job losses, bankruptcies, and market crashes, which means Americans have spent the last two years with prices going up faster than they’ve ever gone up in our lifetimes. On the other end those same American households are facing the prospect of losing their jobs. I always say that the federal reserve and the government right now are faced with a rock and a hard place, with hyperinflation on side and a deflationary death spiral on the other side. However, it's not as if there is no choice. In fact, one of the comments I commonly get on my YouTube videos is, "Hey, you point out a lot of things with the country and how policy is done. What’s your solution?" Well, that’s what this video is about, and I’m going to give you a 5-step plan that would put America on a path to global supremacy and wealth that the world has never seen before (if implemented).
Many people accept that quantitative easing, (easy monetary conditions, low interest rates, printing money) causes asset prices to go up. On the same note, they just accept that quantitative tightening and raising interest rates causes asset prices like stocks to fall. But what is the mechanism behind this? In this video I am going to explain the process very simply, how QT contributes to lower stock prices.
Well, it has finally happened. Real estate prices have officially begun to fall, posting their first month to month decline in prices in three years. That's right. Despite all the headlines you've seen about doom and gloom in the real estate market for the past two years, prices have continually gone up until now from June to July, posting the first drop in prices.
Federal Reserve Jerome Powell spoke at today at Jackson Hole during their annual retreat. By the way, it is so nice for them that they get a nice retreat in Jackson Hole Wyoming every single year despite the economic hardships that other Americans are going through, good for them right!? He gave a speech that gave strong indications of the near future concerning monetary policy. If we look at directly what he said while looking in between the lines, we can see clearly what they plan to do. Bankrupting households and crashing the market!
President Biden recently announced that he is going to be forgiving or cancelling $10,000 in federal student debt, and up to $20,000 for anyone who got a Pell Grant. Now, surprisingly, a move like this is getting backlash from people on both sides of the isle. From people on the far left saying it does not go near as far enough, and people on the right saying they have no business doing this. But this may be just smoke and mirrors because the ability for the federal government to cancel or forgive student debt does not rest with the President. So, this move might actually be illegal, and the supreme court just might stop it.
The creation of the United States was one of the largest experiments on human freedom that has ever been conducted in human history. The result of this experience was an unfathomable amount of wealth creation, one of the largest periods of prosperity, growth, and human thriving that this world has ever seen. However, the conditions that led to so much prosperity by many measures are dwindling, decreasing, and downright disappearing in the United States today. This country is on the road to serfdom, but do not despair because there is something you can do about it.
The idea of a strong dollar sounds great to most people. However, when they look at their 401k accounts, they realize a strong dollar might not be all that good! So, let’s look at what is happening here: Why is the dollar getting stronger right now? Why does it look like it’s going to be moving even higher from here to levels that it hasn’t been at for years? Why is it bad for asset prices?
We’re seeing some strange things happening within the bond market with a steeply inverted yield curve on one hand, while we also have real negative interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The Fed claims they’re trying to fight inflation, but we’ve got a whole camp of people saying we cannot fight inflation with negative real interest rates, you must be above the inflation rate before it has any effect. I’m going to show you today, something that might be a little bit surprising. That we don’t need positive real interest rates to combat inflation. In fact, with negative real interest rates you can cause deflation.
Have you ever wished you could spot a bubble in real time with a high degree of accuracy? Because it is quite easy to tell after the fact, especially a few years removed. You can point back at something and say, "clearly, that was a bubble." But if it was so clear in the moment, then it would have never become a bubble because nobody would have invested in it, knowing it was a bubble from the start. And so, I am going to give you five steps that you can use to test (a litmus test) to be able to determine whether something is a bubble, or not.
Have you ever been able to use debt to increase your income? Most likely, you have been able to. However, when you scale things up and you go from an individual, to a business, to a large business, and to a country — the problems with debt financed growth become larger exponentially, not linearly. To the point where when you reach nation states, (large nations using debt to try and fuel growth) — you almost always result in massive, catastrophic consequences, which can make things much worse in the end than they were before.
Most people, including the Federal Reserve are aware that the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place. With the deflationary death spiral on one side, and a hyperinflationary collapse of the currency on the other side. Where people do tend to disagree is what the Federal Reserve should do to try and thread the needle between those two things, and what they will do, not just what they should do. The other thing muddying the waters is personal preference about what people 'wish' the Fed would do. Because a lot of people disagree about the Federal Reserve easing conditions to bailout the economy. But at the same time, they're upset at the Fed for tightening conditions and potentially causing more economic pain when that’s the healthier option long-term, even though it might be more painful short-term. I'm here to tell you that what is likely to happen is, the Federal Reserve is going to continue to fight inflation until they win. The problem with this is that they're going to tip the economy over into a depression, and the real problems start after that.
The war on crypto currency has begun! Over the last few months, the United States government has been ramping up its efforts to crack down on crypto currencies. We've seen debates start on who should be regulating crypto currencies: the SEC, or the CFTC. We've also seen the arresting of employees in the NFT marketplaces, like Nathaniel Chastain, for insider trading. And most recently, the United States Treasury sanctioned tornado cash. So why are they doing this, and why now? If you stick with me, I promise you will not like the end (where the government is going with this attack).
Why Michael Burry Dumped ALL His Stocks but One Michael Burry just sold all of his stocks except for one of them! So the question is, why did he sell all these stocks? Should you do the same?
By now you've probably heard that the IRS is hiring 87,000 new agents by the year 2031! Obviously, this has sparked some severe political debate, with people on the right saying that “their only purpose to implement this is to come after middle class Americans”! This is leading people on the left to counter and say, “for anybody earning less than $400,000 in income, the audit rates will not rise”. But I'm here to show you why the only reason why 87,000 new agents are being hired is to come after the middle class, and I've got proof.
If you've ever traded on margin before, then you've probably experienced the rush that's associated with buying more stocks than what your own cash can afford and watching that number move up or move down faster than it would if you had used your own cash. I hope this isn't you, but many people have also experienced a margin call, where you buy something with borrowed money and then that stock starts to collapse. Broker gives you a call to sell, deposit more cash, otherwise they're going to sell it for you. And the stock market has always moved up and down on these trends of margin. Because many of the players in the stock market lever up, which pushes prices up. But it will get to a point where that movement up stops happening, selling starts, and then the price starts to drop, which forces liquidation across the board, driving down prices even more. So, if you can watch the trend of the margin debt level building up and dropping, you can potentially front run this and be able to profit off of getting into a leveraged position ahead of the curve and getting out of it before the pop! Today we're going to look at the current state of margin debt across the stock market to provide you some insight on whether today is a good day to get into more leverage or to get out of leverage.
You're probably aware that housing prices have become astronomically high recently! In fact, the median price for single-family homes has risen above $400,000 for the first time ever! This means that fewer and fewer people can afford to buy a home, and therefore, I say the real housing crisis is starting to show up for renters. Because it's not like it was 13, or 14 years ago when there were empty houses everywhere. Now, people are moving away from buying homes and are looking to rent instead. which is pushing renters’ budgets to a breaking point across the nation.
Do you think that World War 3 will never happen, or do you think it's already started? Well according to Zoltan Pozsar who's one of the world's leading experts on The Fed, shadow banking system, and the repo market — he says that World War 3 may have already started. And if you consider economic wars? It has started already!
Productivity in the United States posted its largest drop in United States history, during the second quarter of this year. Now considering the fact that we're officially in a recession, we've got record breaking inflation every single month, the central bank who’s in between a rock and a hard place on deciding whether to tighten, or to ease and soften the blow on the economy. This is not a good sign that we're seeing productivity drop like this, because an increase in productive output would be the only way out of this mess, pain free.
What is going on with inflation?! We recently got the report that shows the July numbers for inflation, and you've probably seen some conflicting reports about it. There have been headlines showing that we haven't seen any inflation for the month of July, while some other headlines are saying that food prices are pricing most Americans out of being able to afford food.
We've all heard about the inflation reduction act which is basically deciding to bolster up the IRS' ability to squeeze more pennies out of Americans in an attempt to balance the budget of the federal government, and reduce inflation by sucking more money out of the economy, instead of just curtailing their own spending, which they'd never do. But in this video, we're going to talk about 2 MAJOR THINGS that you want to watch out for in terms of taxes. Because this might impact you if you have a small business, or a side hustle.
Gold markets are flashing multiple signals right now that are indicating we could be on the cusp of a major historic move up from a HUGE short squeeze in gold! And one of these signals has only happened a few times in the last decade, and every single time that has happened. .. we've seen a major move up in the price of gold.
Wouldn't it be amazing if we could have a crystal ball to see into the future of what different asset prices would do? Well, obviously, that is impossible, but I have the next best thing for you today, I brought on Gareth Soloway on the show today. The last time I brought him onto the show, he almost perfectly pegged the exact price path that Bitcoin would follow! So, I brought him back on today to talk about Bitcoin, the Fed, interest rates, the stock market, and much more!
Being able to become proficient at a skill is actually itself, a skill that you need to learn. There are many things that everybody has that they're naturally talented at. But what happens when you're presented with a problem or challenge, and you need to hone in a new skill and learn something that you aren't naturally good at in order to accomplish what you need to accomplish. What is the best path forward in order to get that skill learned and become extremely proficient at it, as quickly and as efficiently as possible? That's what we're going to talk about today.
Why in the world are interest rates still low?! In light of inflation, and seeing what prices are doing.. why are lenders still accepting interest rates that causes a loss of purchasing power as a return on their money? In this video, I'm going to show you exactly why interest rates are still so low.
Today we're going to be looking at some fresh charts that will give us an indication of where the housing market is going. Many people are starting to post pictures all over about house prices dropping on current listings! Everyone is saying that "the bubble is starting to pop", "the crash is finally here", "we're going to see some massive carnage in the real estate market." But that's not a complete outlook from all the data. That's simply anecdotal evidence of owners realizing that they must sell their houses for less based on "some" housing prices. We're going to look at if this is communicating something that is indicative of the housing market across the entire nation or is something else going on here. We'll look at some charts today that will shed light on the situation.
I told you guys that this was coming sooner or later, and it looks like it's starting to happen now. We're seeing U.S. job openings fall, sitting at a 9-month low. Even though the news is still trying to spin it as though the labor market is still tight, things are changing very quickly.
It seems as if the current administration thinks that our nation can avoid a recession permanently if we continue to change the definition of what a recession is. In light of the fact that over the last few days, there's been a lot of attention on the fact that the Biden administration has changed the way it defines recession, including in this recent post from the White House. We have seen fact checkers come out of the woods in order to verify whether the White House is trying to change the definition, or not. So, in this video we're going to fact check the fact checkers about the word recession, what it means, what it doesn't mean, and the actual state of the economy.
The boom, bust cycle. .. this is something that is very rarely understood in its proper form. Many people call it the business cycle, some people call it the debt cycle. So, what we're going to look into today is, What causes the boom bust cycle? Why does the boom make the bust inevitable? If the bust is inevitable? Why are there historic examples where it seems as though there was no bust when there should've been one.
Are you the type of person that looks at life and thinks everything is just pure random, luck, and some people just seems to get everything they want randomly, and other people don't get anything they want? Well, I'm here to tell you that life is not arranged that way, and in fact, we do actually get what we want. And if you aren't getting what you 'think' you want, it's because you might want something else that you aren't aware of. We're going to go over three frameworks to go through your life to make sure that you're getting what you really want out of life, instead of looking at life as a victim and letting things happen to you.
It's time for the American Oligarchy to end! Now you might think that I'm being hyperbolic by calling it an oligarchy. But an oligarchy is simply a small group of people who have control over a country, organization, or an institution. And as I will show in this video, that is the state that this country is in right now with a group of politicians, and wealthy elites who scratch each other's back. To enrich each other, and make sure they stay in power. No this isn't an issue of inequality, unfairness, and morality. If you stick to the end, I will show you that this is a matter of war, as well as life and death.
The inflation reduction act was recently released, and it is as backwards as it can get. If your goal is going to be to fight inflation, then there's nothing worse you can do that than to create this bill. But that's politics right? So in this video we're going to break it down and see exactly what they plan to do in this act to fight inflation, and to fight climate change. .. two things that go together, right? Let's dive in.
Well guys the recession is here, or should I say the 'not' recession is officially here! As we look at news headlines, trying to dance around the topic. Even though we fit the definition, consensus of what a recession has always been, are we one in? On top of that, we've got some of the highest inflation numbers we've seen in decades, and if we were to measure inflation the same way they use to we'd already surpass the highest level of inflation since the 70s. So the question is, what to do with your money during a time like this? When the economy is falling apart in one hand, and prices of basic goods are going through the roof on the other. In this video we're going to look at why it's gold's time to shine.
Every once in a while, I look at the views that I'm getting, and the subscribers on this channel and I think to myself, 'it's too big right now. I have too many views, and too many subscribers. I need to make an extremely offensive video". That's what we're doing today, so if this video doesn't offend you and you're someone who likes the truth, go ahead and hit the subscribe button for everyone who I'll inevitably lose from this message. We're talking about inequality today. Many people on the left say we need equality of outcome, and many on the right say we need equality of opportunity. I'm here to say neither one of those things are the goals to shoot for, and instead, we should be actively trying to create more opportunities for inequality.
China and Russia recently announced that they're going to be launching a new global reserve currency. They're going to be jointly working together to create a new international reserve currency to replace the U.S Dollar.
The recession is officially here! But you will not see that coming out of the mainstream media. In fact, everything that you're seeing is really trying to avoid saying the recession is here. Despite the fact that we officially have two quarters in a row of a decline in GDP. The things that mainstream and the administration are pointing at are not signs of confidence for the economy, they're actually signs of trouble ahead!
Recently Uganda came out with some earth shattering news that they have 31 million tonnes of gold ore discovered! If that were true, it would more than double the global supply of gold that's been mined throughout all human history. Is this possible? Yes. However, is this announcement real? Absolutely not.
It FINALLY happened! For the first time since this tightening cycle has started by the Fed, we're hearing signals of potential future easing for the first time. The FOMC had their meeting yesterday and today. Powell answered some questions, and in this video I'm going to give you the main takeaways that matter. What is The Federal Reserve doing right now? What are they planning, or signaling at what they'll do in the future? Why markets are rallying as a results?
Is the blood bath in the stock market over, or has it just begun? Depending on who you ask, you're going to get very different answers to that question. Many people are saying, "we've got the biggest stock market crash in history in front of us". While other investors are saying, "we've got great deals in the stock market now, that investors should take advantage of right now". In this video we're going to look at both sides of the coin by putting the evidence against each other, to see which side comes out on top — to give you the most information possible to make an educated decision on where to invest your money right now, or still holding back your cash for better deals later.
Ukraine announced that they've been selling billions of dollars’ worth of gold in order to buy goods! But, there's a problem. .. the amount of gold they said was sold is about 10x more than the gold that they've ever officially owned.
Today's global energy crisis is changing the world, permenantly and it will never be the same. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine is causing global leaders around the world to reshape how they look at energy. It's also causing public opinion to shift about where we think energy should come from, how we should use energy, and it all points to nuclear. Because nuclear is not only neccessary for global energy prodcution, but it is also the best possible solution compared to every other alternative. As a bonus, we're going to look out how we can profit off this global energy shift in the future.
China has historically been one of the largest holders of United States treasury debt. However, this trend has been changing recently and China just dipped below $1 trillion dollars worth of U.S treasury debt for the first time in 12 years. As this global trend towards de-dollarization continues, China is taking the lead by dumping U.S treasuries.
Is George Gammon wrong about inflation or is he wrong about being wrong about inflation? He recently did a video on his channel @Rebel Capitalist. Great video going into some of the details of personal spending power for Americans, and in this video he's saying, "The data is showing that we might not actually be in for a quick end to inflation, because it looks like the spending power for Americans (given the size of their checking accounts) is a lot larger than I thought it was. Inflation could persist a lot longer than I thought it could." I wanted to take this video to respond to that, because there was a key that he was focusing on in terms of these checking accounts for Americans. I think this is the reason why he thinks this inflation won't be able to last as long as he is saying he might think it lasts now.
Don't say I didn't tell you so but foreigners are now returning to the U.S housing market after a three year drought! The question is, why are foreigners buying U.S real estate and why now?
The dollar is rising at a pace we haven't seen in a very long time but at a pace that we have seen multiple times in the last few decades. The reality is, this is causing major problems in the global economy. The rising dollar is putting a strain on the system that has happened before, and when it did, there were major financial crises. We're seeing seeds planted of the same thing happening again, today.
Can the Federal Reserve go bankrupt? This question might seem a little popostrous at first glance because they can literally print money. But when you take a look at where they actually fund their operating expenses from, it comes from the profits of assets held on their balance sheet. What happens when they get to the point where assets on their balance sheet are unprofitable, causing total losses from them because of their own monetary policy? That's what we're going to answer in this video!
The Yield Curve has finally inverted and it is stuck this time! It inverted a while ago but flipped right back, and this time it remains stagnant. Now's the time to talk about it because it is real this time. It's flashing a recession warning, so I'm going to explain very simply: - What a yield curve is - What it means when it inverts - Why it inverts - Why it means a recession is likely on the way
Today we're talking about the United States Governments' debt load. We all know its grown to a monstrous stack of $30 trillion us dollars. So the question on everyone's mind is, as the debt, and the cost of the debt keeps growing, how long can they go before they default on their debt? In this video, I'm going to give you the answer to this and it might surprise because it's probably not what you'd expect to hear.
Today we're talking about The Fed pivot. Everybody is expecting at some point soon, the Federal Reserve will pivot. They'll start up QE again, buying assets, push down interest rates, and I am here to tell you that despite the fact we're already at the point that would cause the Federal Reserve to pivot. However, I don't think they will do it again, it is different this time and I will show you why.
The world is going absolutely crazy right now with riots, rebellion, and revolutions happening all around the world right now as people can't afford basic necessities. All because the central banks around the world have abused their power, and their privilege of controlling the currency. Now the chickens are finally coming home to roost, the consequences are finally getting laid out for all to see and people are not happy about it. People are not happy about not being able to afford things, their governments abusing their power, and their taking it to the streets with protests, riots, and rebellions. The real question is, will this come to the United States?
Nigeria is furthuring the global de-dollarization trend that has been happening, this time it is with dairy. In Nigeria right now the dollar ban is causing more and more investments with local dairy farms, rather than what has traditionally taken place which is, getting rid of their local currency for dollars, and then using those dollars to buy milk from the international market. This is just the latest sign in the global trend towards de-dollarization. So in this video, we're going to cover what this means for you.
Another day, another domino pushed over, pushing the world that much closer to global de-dollarization. Let's take a look at India right now, they're Rupee is in trouble! The central bank is trying do things to stimulate its demand, and one of the ways they're doing this right now is by putting in place a mechanism so that international trades, settlement of exports and imports can be settled in the Indian Rupee instead of US Dollars.
We just got a record breaking inflation number 9.1% for June! Biggest inflation we've seen in decades! Everytime inflation numbers come out, we break new records, and now this is the highest reading so far on this inflation run. I'm going to show you something that's even worse than that 9.1% number, because the year over year 9.1% number is not the number we should be paying attention to, I'm going to show you the real inflation number that matters month over month, and why it matters way more.
As reported by Bloomberg recently, a cascade of defaults is coming for emerging markets! This is because the dollar index has been getting so strong recently, (stronger than its been in years) — this is making it more difficult for emerging markets to get dollars. If it's harder to get dollars, than that means it's more expensive, which means it is beginning to bankrupt some of these emerging markets. It's only a matter of time before this begins to spill over into developed markets.
It is just a joke everyday when we look at the news to see what's going on, sometimes we have to think if we're actually living in a simulation? Biden sold a million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China-Owned gas giant. Biden a couple months back said, in order to help Americans with gas prices at the pump — he'd take strategic reserves of oil, and release them to make a dent in the total demand. But instead of using them to help Americans, he sold it to China. You can't make this stuff up.
Today I have a thought experiment for you. Lately it's becoming increasingly obvious that this nation is filled with many different cultures, and different groups of people who live at odds with each other. So, the question is, what is the answer moving forward? With the American Empire over extended and trying to shove ideologies that are not compatible with everything we believe in, down people's throats. What is the reason why this nation must stay unified? If there is no reason, does that mean either a national breakup or divorce is the answer, or is secession the answer that could fix America.
Today we're talking about the new layoff and jobless claim numbers that recently came out, and we're going to focus on the unemployment piece of this, which is the layoffs portion. Because this is confirmation to what I've been telling you guys for quite a few months now, how layoffs have already started and that they're going to get worse. By the time it shows up in the official data for The Fed, it'll be much worse in reality versus what they're able to see because their data is so backwards.
Today we're going to answer the question, "How long can inflation last?" In a free market, (as you know) this wouldn't be happening. In a completely free market, you get a small amount of deflation overtime. If you look back in history, you see that we got small amounts of deflation that persists overtime, and nominal including wages go down overtime, but real wealth grows - when you count for the deflation that happens, there is so much of a growth of goods, services, abundance that even though there's less money to go around compared to all the stuff. People get richer because you can afford more abundance, because prices get so much cheaper. That's what's happened throughout all human history, and the only time you get inflation is when its enforced and imposed upon the system from the top down, resulting in an inevitable collapse.
We're now seeing central bankers around the world try an prep the global population for an era of high inflation. Given the fact they're now admitting how little they understand about inflation. It's a "good" thing we have such geniuses in charge of monetary policy around the world.
Today we're talking about the Reverse Repo Facility again, I've been getting a ton of DMs and comments from people about this recent article from Zero Hedge. They're saying that the Fed is quietly handing out a $250 million dollars to a handful of recipients that are very happy because they're getting a ton of money, risk free, from the Fed to park their cash in the Repo Facility. So stay tuned because I am going to explain what is going on.
The Federal Reserve's resolve is strong to crush the economy, if need be, in order to fight inflation. Their latest Fed Minutes has been released and, in the notes, it shows they have no care in the world about a coming recession, and that their only concern right now is fighting inflation. So, there's more pain to come
Right now everyone is wondering, "how long will inflation continue?" The Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation by allowing assets to bleed off their balance sheet, and by raising interest rates. Many people are now afraid of the economy plunging into a recession as a result of that tightening. And a deep enough recession/depression would cause demand destruction, which could cause a deflationary death spiral. So the question is, which is better — inflation or deflation? If the Fed is truly between a rock and a hard place they have to choose between the purchasing power of the dollar or the economy, which goes back to inflation or deflation. So which one is better? If you stick around until the end, you will see that either way, the end result will typically be the same.
The United States 10 Year Treasury Bond has just had its worst first half of the year performance in 234 years, that's since 1788 when George Washington was President! That's right, this isn't a joke. You can't say that Biden isn't breaking any records, or doing anything unprecedented because he just shot to the top of that list.
The Federal Reserve is now finally coming out with new data saying we're basically already in a recession. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker shows that the United States economy is likely in a recession after Q1 data revealed. The estimates for GDP was expecting us to see growth but it has actually contracted. We're going to take a look at what this means for you.
The EPA just got their authority capped at the knees by the Supreme Court. In a new rulling, the Supreme Court ruled that the EPA does not have the authority to force power plants to transition from fossil fuels, to renewable energy. In this video, I'm going to make some huge enemies here because I am going to prove unequivocally with extreme clarity why this is, - #1 A massive step forward for individuals who are seeking prosperity in America - #2 A massive win for the environment
Fossil Future Book: https://amzn.to/3yapwZr
Today I'm going to show you why it is more important than ever to NOT underestimate the coming economic PAIN, that will be apart of the coming financial storm. We have a lot of deflation ahead of us. Recently, Jerome Powell spoke at an ECB forum and he vowed that he would not let inflation take hold in the United States. iTrustCapital (Get $100 of BTC) https://itrust.capital/heresy
We recently got word that the United States and the other countries in the G7 has recently announced a NEW BAN, more sanctions on Russia, and this time it is gold. In this video, we're going to answer the question of what impact this might have on gold because there's some people saying that this will have no impact at all. However, there is a chance that this could actually blow up, and once and for all END, the paper gold market that has been supressing the gold price for decades. iTrustCapital (Get $100 of BTC) https://itrust.capital/heresy Email joel@schiffgold.com for a great deal on large gold orders, and tell him I sent you
The Dalls Fed Texas manufacturing outlook survey was recently released! There are some good responses here that you all need to see. In this video, we're going to show why the Dallas Fed Texas manufacturing outlook survey shows that business activity is tanking, and people are not happy about this as you might've already suspected. Let's dive in.
Every levering up is followed by a deleveraging. There is no way around that, however. There is a caveat that would allow people to not experience or notice that the deleveraging is happening. So we're going to talk about three pieces today - What is a levering up? - What is a deleveraging? - Why is that always inflationary or deflationary? And finally, 'how can you possibly make it so you don't feel the pain of that deleveraging?'
Today we're covering 4 things every person needs to do in order to prepare themselves for the coming financial storms. Wether inflation continues at its current pace, or gets worse — entering into hyperinflation and stafglation. Or, we get a massive crash deflation everywhere the eye can see. It doesn't matter which scenario happens, because it's disastrous if we are not prepared.
Today we're looking at how Russia and India are benefiting each other due to sanctions! How oil is necessary for India because they have to import a lot of their oil while Russia is dependant on their oil export — thanks to sanctions, India has been able to avoid a lot of their pain by getting their oil directly from Russia who gets to also avoid their pain by exporting directly to India. The real losers here are the ones in Europe, who have laid the sanctions and they're only hurting themselves here.
In May we saw a drop in existing home sales, which are the total number of homes sold declined in the month of May, on top of April's numbers being revised downward. In this video, we're going to talk about what that means for the real estate market considering the fact that yet again, prices went up. Despite all the bearishness in the real estate market, despite the fact that sales are collapsing, sales still went up. Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
The United States has been engaged in needless, endless wars for decades. Causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands to innocent civilians, women, and children for no good reason. Finally, we see a bit of light at the end of the tunnel where people like you and I have a chance to at least stop one of these wars in Yemen. I can't do it on my own, which is why I'm asking for your help.
Today we're talking about three tools that I use to find good advice. But today, the problem isn't finding advice, wisdom, knowledge, or recommendations on anything. However, the problem is discerning which of that advice is good or bad. So today I'll give you the THREE steps I use to separate the wheat from the chaff
It looks like The Federal Reserve is already indicating that they're ready to turn on a dime, should they need to. We know they're already battling inflation, and their lives because if the dollar were to collapse, or go into hyperinflation — we know The Fed is DONE. The President of the Federal Reserve of St. Louis says we don't have as far to go on QT as it may seem. So let's break down what this means, and what this might signal for the future. Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs
Everything is collpasing everywhere we look. We see stocks are falling, and all the major indices are down, 60, 80, and even 90%. Especially some of the tech stocks from their all-time highs, just within the last two years. And now the major indices are coming down as well. So looking around at stocks, as we see everything crashing, the next question is; "How do I know what to buy, or where do I allocate my money?" In this video I'm going to give you a few tips and tricks that I use in order to find value when everything is crashing. Let's dive in!
This is the episode where I answer your questions! I recently did a post on YouTube and I asked you guys, "What're the questions that you have, which I haven't answered before?" — which you guys dropped 14 questions after that.
Many people are concerned about the rollout of a Central Bank Digital Currency, especially as we see carnage in the markets everywhere. It seems like policy makers are doing everything they can to bring as much pain as possible on everyday Americans, while asset prices are crashing, and prices of goods and services are going through the roof. So, the big question is, are the deliberately trying to reset everything so they can rollout a CBDC? So, in this video, I'm going to give you exactly what my plan would be if I was in charge — and wanted to rollout a Central Bank Digital Currency successfully. Because if they were to roll this out right now, people wouldn't have any incentive to migrate over into it unless they had a reason to, which is why everything must go through chaos.
There is carnage everywhere we look! Crypto is collapsing, we are seeing exchanges start to lay people off, as well as Celsius has frozen withdrawals. Celsius got wrapped up in the Luna/Terra debacle. Now we're seeing chaos everywhere we look, with Ponzi schemes, scams, and a collapse in prices of other assets. The big question is, "if we're looking at Bitcoin is now a good time to buy?" Or if not, when is a good time to buy? How can we know when we know we're at or near a bottom, and start to buy the dip intelligently. Instead of buying all the way down, and losing more money. In this video, I will answer how to know exactly when to buy Bitcoin. Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial Japan has lost control of their yield curve, and the Yen! They're starting to experience rapid depreciation in the value of their currency given the fact that they're trying to implement a dooms day arrival plan called, "Yield Curve Control". We're going to dive into exactly what is going on with Japan.
China has recently warned the United States to "stay away from Taiwan!" They said they will, "fight to protect against Taiwan's independence, they will fight to the very end." In this video we're talking about why a conflict with China over Taiwan is the biggest potential Black Swan this year.
Breaking news, the Federal Reserve has just release their statement for monetary policy going forward, and their breaking the markets. It looks like they're fully committed to fighting inflation, as they've announced an interest rate hike of .75% which is the largest hike in decades. We're going to look at exactly what they said in their statement, and what this means for you and markets going forward.
It seems like everyday we wake up, we see more shortages that emerge in headlines. Today's turn is 'diesel'. It's like Oprah Winfrey is running the economy now, telling everyone, "you get a shortage". Anybody right now whose got a diesel truck, semi truck, or a tractor — basically the entire economy runs on diesel. And if this isn't a enough, we're also seeing a shortage on D.E.F. fluid! Everything that runs on diesel needs this to operate.
A new bill has just been proposed that could classify crypto currencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as commodities instad of securities — completely removing the regulatory authority of the SEC from overseeing crypto currencies, and instead, the CFTC will be in charge of regulations since they're the ones who oversee commodities. Today we're going to find out wether or not this will matter for you, and if this is a 'good' move for this regulatory change, or not. iTrustCapital (Get $100 of BTC) https://itrust.capital/heresy
While the markets are absolutely collapsing now, we're seeing stocks in a free fall, gold miners down, bonds take a huge hit — as the markets begin to price in that The Fed just might raise rates, and even more than everyone thinks. iTrustCapital (Get $100 of BTC) https://itrust.capital/heresy
Iran is proposing a new multi national currency to get around dollar sanctions, because no one in the world wants to be subject to potential sanctions, or current sanctions from the United States. Anyone who's worried about this is actively looking for ways around the dollar, and it seems as though Iran is taking the lead in this. Their currency will be used in China, Russia, Pakistan, India, and more — in order to acomplish this goal to a global de-dollarization.
Today I have a question for you. Why is big money still buying big real estate? Just last month we saw a Goldman Sachs backed fund bought an entire community of 87 single family homes in central Florida. Either BIG Money is BIG stupid right now, or they know something that most Americans don't. Let's get into it.
Today we're looking at a PROFIT WARNING from Switzerlands' SECOND largest bank, which is the Credit Suisse. They're saying, "Hey, we're in trouble.". Their profits are going down, and they had some big losses, which is a warning to investors that there are some rough times ahead. We're going to take a look at what's currently happening with Credit Suisse, and what this means for you.
Today we're talking about the next bailout! Everyone seems to be so certain that monetary and fiscal policy right now is headed toward a crash, that inflation will stick around and continue to grow, and that the next bailout will come for everyone as it did in 2020. I'm going to outline a little scenario here in this video that will challenge each of those assumptions. But the biggest problem here is that the next bailout will not come for you and I, but for the government, financial instituations, and large corporations. The pain will be laid on individuals across the nation, and they will just ensure that the system doesn't collapse. So if you're waiting on that next stimulus check, or that universal income, that plunged protection to prop up the stock market? They might be waiting on something that will never come.
Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs Americans are in one of the worst places financially they've been in, maybe ever. We're seeing THREE major things happening right now as a result of the whole monetary policy, fiscal policy, inflation, and shortages mess. We're going to break down THREE metrics. - Debt - Savings - Spending Habits We're going to look at the true reason why Americans right now are in the worst financial position maybe they've ever been in.
Today we're going to discuss one of the most controversial topics going on right now, which is student debt forgiveness. Many politicians are talking about this right now, some politicians are saying we must do this, and some are saying we should not. I'm going to talk about how student debt forgiveness could impact the economy, and our country. Fair warning, this will make a lot of people mad so if that's you by the end of this say — you can't say I didn't warn you.
The SEC and other agencies like it are unconstitutional! I'm going to explain and show you undeniable truth that these agencies should not be allowed to make rules, regulations, and laws that affect your everyday life.
Today we're going to discuss Jamie Dimon whose the CEO of JP Morgan Chase. He recently said that a hurricane is coming, and we are to brace ourselves. Well we're going to break down some of the things he's saying to see if there's any validity here, or if he's just spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt, or should we act upon it. Let's get into it.
Another fiat currency has succumed to hyperinflation! This time it is the Turisk Lira, which is just now reaching its highest level of inflation since 1998, at 73%! In this video we're going to look at - What is causing this - What they're planning to do about it - What you can do about it Because this is not where its going to end but it is yet another domino that's collapsing on the way to every single fiat currencies' collapse.
Today we're talking about the recent jobs report that came out, because it is showing a massive decline in job openings. As of April, there are still many more openings than unemployed people via their stats but the tide is turning fast. If we continue on this course, not only will job openings dry up but also layoffs and mass unemployment.
One of the most common questions I get is, "What should be done?" We see all of these massive errors that policy makers are making. Wether is Powell at The Fed yelling at the treasury, or whoever is in the white house at the given time, or whoever is in congress — we see the same massive mistakes continue to happen over and over again. People think that if we had the right people in office, who knew what they were doing, things would be a lot better off. Unfortunately, I'm here to tell you that this is not the case. It's easy to point fingers but nobody wants to admit that there's somethings that are baked into the cake already. Even if we made every decision that we assume is the right one moving forward, there would still be massive implications.
Today we're looking at Joe Biden's recently announced plan to fight inflation. We're going to dissect this today point by point to see wether or not if this plan will actually combat inflation, contribute to inflation, or something even worse! Sign Up for Swan Today (get $10 sign up bonus) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
Right now a major food crisis is brewing. We're seeing signs of a global food catastrophe, shortages everywhere all across the world that may last a very long time. And we're seeing the signs of this happening, very soon. Book referenced: https://amzn.to/38ZLzJJ Emergency Food: https://bit.ly/3MSLMNW Invest in Farms: https://farmtogether.com
I promised as soon as I saw anything that changed in the housing market, I would update you guys, and this is that video. We're going to be looking at the first bearish signs that I have seen in the housing market in years, and now we're starting to see somethings that are a bit concerning. Make sure you stick around for the entire video because there is a massive "MAYBE" that could change the course of how we perceive the trend of the real estate market. Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs
Today we're going to be looking at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet because they're beginning to tighten. We have started to see the balance sheet tip over, start to move down, and I believe it will accelerate next month. This could cause major problems in the plummeting of the financial system. We're going to look at why!
Today I'm joined with Per Bylund whose one of my favorite modern day austrian economists. He's the author of fantastic books, and the one we're going to discuss today which is 'The Seen, The Unseen, and The Unrealized'. Stay tuned for this one Book: https://amzn.to/3Ny9Vcf
What do Nazi's, climate change, and aliens have in common? It's the fact that the United States want to start a war against them in order to stimulate the economy. Just as economists look back and say WW2 took us out of a great depression, and that the fight against climate change can help stimulate the economy, and now it looks as though the U.S government is preparing for a war on Aliens. .. this timing on the UFO information seems a bit too perfect. Just as the government was wrong about the economic effects about WW2 and fighting climate change, they will sure enough be wrong and it will have devastating economic complications for fighting aliens.
The reverse repo facility at the Fed just broke over $2 trillion, an all time record. What is the reverse repo facility, and how is it different than the regular repo facility? Finally, what does this mean for everyone and the economy?
The US is easing sanctions on Venezuela in order to secure access to Venezuelan oil both for Europe and the US. This is in the wake of the energy crisis caused by restricting the world's access to Russian energy. All the geopolitical maneuvering highlights why it is time for the US Empire to come to an end. Book referenced in video: https://amzn.to/3wMnApA
Rarely in investing to opportunities like this come about. But about once every generation, certain asset classes are hated and feared so much by the market that they are valued far below what they should be. It is only a matter of time before the market realizes the insane value available and a flood of money rushes in to take advantage. Now is that time, and you have a chance to buy great companies at even greater prices.
This video was conducted on behalf of GoldMining Inc, and was funded by Gold Standard Media LLC and/or affiliates. For our full disclaimer, please visit: https://portal.goldstandardir.com/disclaimer/GOLD-169
The world is running out of its energy capacity which hit headlines after Saudi's Oil Minister proclaims that we've reached our capacity. Today we're going to discuss this energy production problem, that's now world wide.
The animals looked at the humans and backed to the pigs. They continued to look back and fouth, and at some point, they couldn't tell which was which. Quite possibly this was the best closing line of any book in history, and it hits cloest to home. Why? Well the constitution was originally written in a way where it would be illegal for income taxes to ever hit the American citizen. But today, we see the government with a monster raise while Americans are losing money every month, unable to catch pace with inflation.
Investors are losing money whether in cash or assets everywhere they look. Stocks are down, real estate may be topping, crypto is down, gold and silver and PM stocks are down, it seems like there is nowhere for investors to make money. But there is one solution that may be surprising. Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs
Price controls are here and I've been talking about this for roughly 2 years now. We're seeing a bill that's being introduced in order to put a cap on "price gouging". They're blaming gas and oil companies for price gouging, while ignoring the regulations, stimulus that's truly led to the higher prices surging. Ultimately this is to pin the blame elsewhere, on the 'greedy capitalists' yet again.
Ben Bernanke is the author of the playbook the Fed used in 2020, and now he is criticizing their actions. Despite the fact he invented modern debt monetization to deal with economic crises, he says the Fed kept it going too long. However, it is not the tightening that causes the bust but the original easy conditions that made the post-boom bust inevitable. Sign Up for iTrustCapital and get $100 of BTC for signing up https://itrust.capital/heresy
Fear and greed are often contrarian indicators when they get to extremes. And right now, we are certainly seeing an extreme amount of fear in the market, to an extent we haven't seen in over 2 years. This could indicate, based on historical examples, that a large rally is right around the corner.
US Consumer debt has reached a new all time high while inflation has drained the savings of Americans forcing them to draw down their savings and load up on debt. Unfortunately, a good chunk of this debt is adjustable rate debt like credit card debt, which means that many Americans could be in trouble soon. Get rid of this kind of debt as fast as possible.
The crypto crash is causing carnage everywhere, bleeding over into other markets. In times like these, the fundamentals about investing and trading are more important than ever. And all the pain will surely bring increased regulation which will crush many projects. Swan Bitcoin Get $10 Bonus https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
Wholesale inflation rose at 11% YoY in April. This is a leading indicator for CPI which indicates the inflation rate is still sticky. Meanwhile, prices are causing demand from consumers to dry up as well as appetite for hiring to dry up - leading to layoffs coming. Not a good sign for policy makers as they will eventually have to choose between the economy and the dollar.
The inflation rate beat estimates yet again, and wages were unable to keep up with the rate of inflation every single month for over a year. This has pushed the market to price in the higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising rates to fight inflation. However, at the long end of the curve, rates have started to decline, indicated the market expects the Fed to cause a problem it will have to bail out in the near future.
The stable coin UST is widely used, but has lost the ability to defend its peg. While it has been violently selling off its bitcoin in order to defend the peg, it failed and both Terra and Luna as a result are blowing up. This is the inevitable result of a price peg as the economic reality is that value constantly and dynamically changes, so static relationships cannot be enforced in perpetuity. Sign Up for iTrustCapital Today (Get $100 of BTC) https://itrust.capital/heresy
Japan has historically been the biggest buyer of US treasuries, but not this time around. While they have very easy monetary policy and are printing like crazy, they are also fighting a losing battle with the value of their currency. Especially against the dollar. This means that it's likely more pain ahead for bond investors.
China has begun to meet with banks to discuss plans to protect itself against sanctions should it come to that. China is much more vulnerable to US sanctions than Russia given the massive reliance on the dollar and its huge holdings of US treasuries. However, the US is also extremely reliant on Chinese exports given the massive trade deficit each year.
Changing World Order by Ray Dalio: https://amzn.to/3ybpbp6
Destined for War by Graham Allison: https://amzn.to/2Dsku1R
Janet Yellen recently described the lessons that policy makers have learned from past economic crises, and that lesson was apparently to bailout the system as fast as possible. Obviously she completely ignores the fact that each bailout has planted the seeds for a worse crisis later on.
The US Personal savings rate has drastically declined in the last few months, bringing the level down to what was last seen in 2013. When the amount of money in the system is increased, it sends out a false signal that the savings pool is large and that it is safe to spend, invest, take out debt, and take risks. However, this signal is false and leads to overconsumption and wealth destruction.
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The Federal Reserve just hiked interest rates by 0.5% which they haven't done in two decades. Not only that, but they also raised the interest rate being paid on the reverse repo facility in order to keep that $1.8 trillion out of the financial system so that they can keep it for when they need it most. Finally, they will begin selling assets off their balance sheet. Pain is coming, the question is how bad will it get and how long will it last before they reverse course? Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
Will Russia move to back the Ruble with Gold? Talks at the Kremlin have been confirmed, but a statement out of the Bank of Russia contradicts this claim. If they do, it looks like a backing of a basket of commodities including gold.
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Stocks across Europe experienced a 'flash crash' earlier today, with drops around 8% before fully recovering. Allegedly this was due to trades placed in error by Citi's London based trading group. Although the trades were erroneous, Nasdaq is stating the trades will not be voided or reversed. Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
Lawrence Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary published a paper detailing reasons why a recession is inevitable given current conditions and current monetary policy. This comes in stark contrast to what the Federal Reserve itself says about the future of the US Economy. While the paper approaches everything from the wrong angle, it is likely correct about a coming recession.
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Russia is following through on its demands that it will not deliver gas unless payments are made in rubles. Most of Europe has caved, including Germany. But Poland and Bulgaria have had their supplies shut off because they were not willing to pay in Rubles. Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
The GDP numbers came in for the first quarter of 2022 and GDP declined by 1.4% for reasons that indicate we are already in a recession. Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs
There are multiple cycles of history that are all converging right now. Looking back at what has happened before can give major insights into what to expect going forward. Join us at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
Fidelity announced it will add bitcoin to the list of available investments to all employers who have their 401(k) plans with Fidelity. However, the employer still has to sign up for this option, and then the employees would have to opt in as well. Will this open the floodgates to retail money storming into bitcoin? Or will the barriers prevent this from having any impact? Sign Up for Swan Bitcoin and get $10 BTC Free http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
The Federal Reserve has the US Economy on a crash course. There is a downward spiral taking place, feeding back on itself, planting the seeds for a catastrophic failure somewhere in the financial system. It is only a matter of time before these seeds sprout and the everything-bailout is needed. Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
New housing starts unexpectedly rose next month, but that's not the only statistic important to look at. Completions are the other side of that coin, and with rising interest rates, inventory has started to rise. Anything to worry about? Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
The Dallas Fed recently warned about the risk that commodities pose to the economy and markets, citing evaporating liquidity, margin calls, and rising prices. Skip the waitlist and join Masterworks today: http://masterworks.art/heresyfinancialsubs
Israel is the latest in a series of countries who have recently reduced exposure to the US dollar. While this won't move the needle on the global scale, this is yet another signpost to where the entire world is headed.
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The Bank of Japan has been engaging in outright yield curve control since 2016, and it is now on the brink of failing. Despite defending the yield and buying as many 10 year bonds as possible, the yield is still at the top of the range and it has taken a massive toll on the Yen. The Yen has moved down faster than almost ever, and every day it gets harder and harder to keep this game up. They will have to choose one or the other - rates or the currency. Which will fail first?
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Jim Bianco's twitter thread https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1516429170229886977?s=20&t=XBunbLwe1k103S63cXSb-g
Everyone is talking about how interest rates are negative right now. Certainly rates at the shortest end of the curve will end up being a negative real return on maturity. However, bond holders are counting on disinflation or deflation before maturity. Otherwise, the average rate of inflation does not accurately reflect the bond holder's rate of inflation.
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Many people are concerned about a currency failure, which is rightfully a thing to be concerned about. But the process by which this happens, and a new currency takes its place, has happened many times. So all we have to do is look at how this has played out historically and then we can know how to prepare for it ourselves.
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Elon Musk has offered to purchase Twitter and take it private in order to turn it into the company he believes it needs to be. The offer represents a premium over the current price and his goal would be to turn it into a platform that protects free speech. If the offer is not accepted, his prior purchase would be liquidated and would have a negative impact on the stock price.
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When inflation kicks into gear, people will spend more money. This is a logical response to get more of the things you will need in the future before prices go up. Said another way, people dump the currency before it becomes worth less.
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The Fed has a secret weapon worth $1.8 trillion that they can force back into the bond market at any time they choose. It's only a matter of time until the craziness forces them to lower the reverse repo rate to zero again, which will force all that cash back out into the market and put downward pressure on interest rates - at least for a short amount of time.
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Reyna Silver's Jorge Monroy joins me to talk about inflation and a simple calculation anyone can use to find out how fast inflation is destroying the purchasing power of their savings. When looking for silver in historic districts, Reyna Silver has just found high grade gold deposits as well.
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Sri Lanka defaults on its debt. Major investors sell stakes in Globally Systemically Important Banks. Barclays and Dutsche Bank realize or prepare for major losses. These risks are piling up and threatening to knock over the global financial system as we know it.
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The inflation reading came out at 8.5% which is far lower than the price increase most Americans are experiencing. This is due to the way inflation is measured. But it's not slowing down. Used car prices had a drop, but it will likely prove to be temporary given the neon crisis in Ukraine. T
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The White House made a statement on Monday regarding the upcoming inflation report and suggested it will be very high. High enough to warn Americans about it in advance. Instead of taking on the chin and claiming any responsibility whatsoever, they blamed Putin multiple times. Completely ignoring the fact we had surging inflation far before Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Sanctions are not having the desired effect on Russia as they are still able to rake in record profits from the rise in energy costs as the world is reliant on Russia for energy.
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We don't need decentralized applications. We need better incentive systems so that pure, focused applications perform correctly. Elon Musk buying a stake in Twitter shows that with enough resources, anyone can still push back against the fiat money forces that would try and stifle the innovation that capitalism brings. This move is a big win.
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Many are fearful about the potential for an unrealized gains tax to get approved in the United States. However, this proposal is almost certainly dead on arrival. Given how taxes are allowed by the constitution, there are only certain ways the government can tax individuals. Because of this, the chances something like this happens in the US are very slim.
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Everyone is fearful of a real estate crash. That alone should be enough to calm the fears of the rational investor. However, with rates climbing every day, it makes sense that anyone who hasn't yet bought a house would be worried about jumping into the market right now. However, rates rising is not only a catalyst for bearish forces. It is also a catalyst for bullish forces by capping supply.
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Food shortages are no joke. Add to that rising costs when the food is available, and you have the makings for societies that cannot feed their families. This is not a scenario you want under your watch as a policy maker. Historically this has led to protests, riots, and even revolutions. And in Peru, we are seeing the same thing start. It's only a matter of time before this happens everywhere if these problems persist.
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The Federal Reserve announced they will start selling assets off their balance sheet next month at a maximum pace of $95 billion per month. They stated the economy is strong enough to handle it, which shows how clueless they are about how markets really work. This selling will cause major problems, the only question is when.
Join me at Market Disruptors Live May 6-8 https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
One hundred years ago, if you wanted to mine for silver or gold, you looked for it with your eyes. Miners would pick rocks up off the ground to find the places to dig. Today, companies like Blackrock silver and Summa Silver are going back to these historic sites. Not only are there large veins very close to the historic sites, but modern technology allows much lower grades to be profitable for mining.
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The Federal Reserve has a few members that believe they need to take a much more aggressive stance against inflation. Not only does this involve raising rates quickly, but it also would involve selling assets off their balance sheet "rapidly". This has the potential to knock over some big players that will then require a bailout. At that point, if they haven't yet seen improvement in inflation, will they give the bailout or stay strong?
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The US mint reported the strongest quarter for gold since 1999. Americans are flocking to physical gold and driving premiums higher and higher. First, let's get around the premiums. Second, make sure you have physical because when it hits the fan, many people who think they have gold will have none at all.
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Incomes are rising, but not once you account for inflation. this is not a good sign in an economy driven by reckless spending. Savings are also dropping as people are having to spend more and more just to make ends meet.
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The whole world is watching right now to see what happens with Russia, the dollar, the Ruble, and the global energy crisis. Nobody wants to cave when tensions are high, and the way this plays out will likely have a large influence on the future of the global monetary system. Arguably the most important other player, China, is sitting back and watching to see what happens.
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Inflation as measured by PCE hit a fresh record in March which pushes the Fed even further into a bind as they need to fight inflation, especially given the jobs numbers right now. In a move to combat rising prices, Biden will be releasing 1 million barrels of oil per day from the strategic reserves. This put short term pressure on the price of oil but it is yet to be seen the long term impact.
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People are still quitting their jobs left and right. Companies are still trying to hire like they can't get enough. And the fed is being backed into a corner with aggressive tightening. Due to this, the yield curve has started to invert, meaning a recession is almost inevitable.
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There is a categorical difference between using a currency to pay for something and using a currency to price something. If you are using gold or bitcoin to pay for something, it makes little difference if that item is priced in dollars. Given all the volatility in the world right now and everyone wondering if the global trend to de-dollarization will continue, this is the fundamental distinction to watch out for. Once something is priced in a different currency, watch out.
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Many are wondering whether they should keep or sell their stocks given recent performance and record high inflation. There is a time coming though when many will feel it is safe to buy back in and hold stocks, while the reality is the opposite. In the fallout of the next crash, the fed will likely buy stocks held in special purpose vehicles at the treasury, and this is the moment to sell.
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The Fed has become very aggressive lately in its words about inflation, interest rates and their Balance sheet. However this has not, at least yet, been backed up by aggressive action. despite the highest inflation in 40 years, interest rates have only moved up by one quarter-percent hike. So why is there so much talk and so little walk?
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You probably didn't need another reason to stay away from gold-backed ETFs. But just in case, here is another reason: taxes. Instead of getting taxed at the regular long-term capital gains max tax of 20%, gold backed ETF's get taxed as a collectible at 28%. There are many better alternatives to exposure to the price of gold in your investing accounts than using these funds.
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Individuals are not allowed to print money, by law. It is called "counterfeiting". However, banks and the central bank have a monopoly on this capability, creating money and "printing" it into existence at will. Why are they allowed to do this and the rest of the population is not? And what are the results of expanding the money supply?
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The central bank in Russia just announced they will buy gold at a specified rate from its banks for the next three months. While this rate is under the current price of gold, it effectively pegs the ruble to gold and sets a floor underneath the gold price. The real fun starts if Russia decides to price oil in rubles or gold after this move. They could effectively force the world onto a new gold exchange standard.
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In a recent move, Russia announced they are open to accepting all forms of payment outside of dollars for oil and gas. Not only are they open to taking the buying country's fiat currency, they are also open to taking gold and bitcoin. This looks to be yet another step along the path of global de-dollarization.
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The US Selective Service Twitter account recently tweeted information about how "conscientious objectors" could apply to get out of military service in the case of a military draft, and be involved in other service instead. This is a sign of how far this country has drifted from the founding fathers' intent, and a sign of moral degradation of this nations ideals and leaders.
Read Enough Already https://amzn.to/38350kb
In an insane, hypocritical proposal, California governor Gavin Newsom would subsidize gas purchases by handing out cash to Californians so that they can afford to buy the gas that the government’s incompetence made expensive in the first place. After years of pushing the prices up and demonizing fossil fuel production, they are now going to literally hand out money to people to buy more.
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An unbelievable bill has just been proposed in congress. The US apparently is considering the usage of Bitcoin in El Salvador a threat to the value of the dollar and the US financial system. While this is obvious that it isn't actually true, what is not so obvious is the true intention behind the bill. It seems like a trojan horse, or a bill simply to set precedence for something larger down the road.
Bill link: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/MCC22059.pdf
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Historically, when the United States has gotten itself into an inflationary mess it takes a long time to get out. This has an impact on the real returns of assets like stocks and gold. In this episode, Patrick Yip from Apmex and OneGold joins to talk about historical cycles of inflation and how to best store your gold.
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There is a bill being proposed in congress that seeks to block the purchasing power of gold coming out of Russia. However, this bill has such a broad overreach that it could turn any ordinary US citizen into a fellow by doing business with any foreign entity who has touched gold from Russia. The powers and penalties granted if this bill passes are terrifying.
Link to bill: https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/s3771/BILLS-117s3771is.pdf
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Gareth Soloway joins me today to look at the current economic environment and what we might expect moving forward. We look at the predicament that the Fed is in right now, the impending crash of bitcoin, and the similarities to Amazon over 20 years ago.
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This is a recording of a guest lecture I gave on the history of the various monetary systems throughout history and how the economies that existed during those times have been impacted by their respective monetary systems.
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The chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, was speaking on monetary policy today. He said they have no problem raising rates at a half percent at a time, as opposed to the quarter percent that they currently have planned. They said they are trying to return to stable prices and aren't looking at the market. Further, they are now using a different metric to predict recessions than the most popular inversion of the yield curve.
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During periods of high inflation, everyone is looking for where to invest their money. The trick is to find something that not only has a high rate of return, but a high REAL rate of return once it is adjusted for inflation. Historically, the price of gold reflects the true rate of inflation and maintains its purchasing power. So in high inflation times, the price of gold moves strongly upward. This creates an opportunity for miners to multiply their profits.
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This episode was sponsored by Galantas Gold Corporation. For more information visit https://galantas.com/investors/overview/ TSX-V & AIM: GAL | OTCQX: GALKF
Despite the cause of prices rising dramatically being the excessive expansion of the money supply, a strange phenomenon begins during inflation: there is never enough money. How can this be, when the creation of too much money is what causes inflation in the first place? In this video we break down what is really going on behind the scenes when the money supply grows, prices rise, and people are left behind without enough money to stay ahead.
This episode was conducted on behalf of Blue Lagoon Resources, and was funded by Gold Standard Media LLC and/or affiliates. For our full disclaimer, please visit: https://portal.goldstandardir.com/disclaimer/BLLG-169 https://bluelagoonresources.com/ TSX-V: BLLG | OTC: BLAGF
Elon Musk challenged Putin to a fight to the death with Ukraine as the stakes. While this seemed like a classic publicity-grabbing tweet from Elon Musk, it highlights much of what we are missing these days with war, skin in the game, and honor among our leaders.
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The question on everyone's mind right now is how will the Fed respond to inflation. The problem is, if the Fed goes through with an aggressive plan of hiking rates and selling assets off their balance sheet, they may push the federal government into bankruptcy and cause a default on the national debt. But there is a trick they have up their sleeves if push comes to shove.
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Adjustable rate debt is about to go through the roof. As lenders realize inflation is sticking around, and as inflation continues to head higher, the adjustable rate debt will get more and more expensive. This will lead people who have credit card debt and other balances they are carrying to be hurt more and more by inflation instead of benefiting by it (like with fixed rate debt).
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Even while supply and demand dynamics should be encouraging home builders to increase supply, other factors are causing them to be cautious and slow down. These factors are inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, and difficulty in finding labor. This means that new supply will suffer while prices continue to rise, contributing to housing affordability getting worse.
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In this episode I'm joined by Reyna Gold's CEO Michael Wood. There is a growing push for de-dollarization around the world, whether it is by choice or by force. The role that gold will play in the international monetary system looks more and more bullish by the day. Given how the Fed has changed how it responds to inflation since the 70's, will they sacrifice the economy to save the dollar? Or in an attempt to save the economy, will they lose both?
This episode was sponsored by Reyna Gold Corp. For more information visit https://reynagold.com/investors To contact visit https://reynagold.com/contact REYG.V | REYGF
The price of oil has had a dramatic effect on the price of gas going up. But even though we have seen a drop from the high in the price of oil, that has not yet translated to a drop in the cost of oil. There are a few reasons for this, and it means it could be even longer before gas prices come back down.
We've seen moderate inflation over the last few decades in the United States, but the debt load has grown exponentially. However, in periods of high inflation, the inflation actually wipes out the debt. So how does this happen?
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Today, the Federal Reserve actually raised rates. They've been talking about it for so long that many doubted they would ever really get around to doing it. Now they are discussing raising by .25% six times over this year. The question is, will it be enough to impact the record breaking inflation we are experiencing? Or will it crash the markets?
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The last two years have seen major disruptions in the supply and cost of food around the world. Shortages of things like fertilizer and pesticides have contributed to the mess. But now, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia threatens to turn the mess into a real crisis for many countries and millions of people. The time to prepare is now before it is too late.
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AMC Theaters just bought a large stake in a gold and silver mining company. No, this is not a joke. They look at this company as being in a very similar position as they themselves were in just a year or two ago. Short on cash, rich on assets. Though this seems out of left field, this news will likely become more and more common as the market realizes the deep value available in miners.
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Saudi Arabia is currently in talks with China to price some of the oil sales in Yuan instead of Dollars. This comes on the back of the sanctions on Russia after the Ukrainian invasion, and the global realization that diversification away from the dollar might be wise. As more and more small events like this happen, the global trend towards de-dollarization gets stronger.
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Companies in Nigeria are finding it impossible to get their hands on enough dollars to pay taxes. In Nigeria, taxes are due in the currency in which the transaction took place. Because of this, the Nigerian government is forced to allow companies to pay taxes in the equal number of Naira at the current exchange rate. As this trend continues, the world will de-dollarize faster and faster as it needs dollars less and less.
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Janet Yellen, the secretary of the treasury, has one of the worst track records in forecasting inflation, recessions, and growth. Recently she said she is confident in the Fed's abilities to stop inflation and does not expect a recession to come about as a result of the recently high inflation and the conflict in Russia and Ukraine.
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On this episode I'm joined by David McAlvany of the McAlvany Financial Group. He gives a behind-the-scenes look at sourcing gold and why it looks like big money is finally starting to shift and allocate into gold.
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Vaulted: https://vaulted.blbvux.net/2rXX47
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This episode was paid for and sponsored by the McAlvany Financial Group.
President Biden signed an executive order on a push for regulatory action for cryptocurrency on Wednesday. This order is short on details, but contains a broad scope of what action he wants the federal government to take regarding the cryptocurrency industry. Instead of reacting negatively, crypto and bitcoin actually rose on the news, as some of the uncertainty regarding the regulatory approach may soon be ending.
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Nickels contain 25% nickel, and the remainder is copper. This puts nickels in the awkward situation of being worth more than what you can actually buy with them. This creates the incentive to hoard the coins until the money is worthless, then use the metal to sell. Keep in mind, doing this to official US currency is illegal.
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Nickel is essential in making stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. But this week, the price of nickel made historic moves, doubling by $50k in one day before trading was shut down. As with everything these days, the move seems to be caused by the sanctions on Russia, but exacerbated by a large short squeeze.
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Gold is playing with all time highs on the attempts by players around the world to lock out the ability of Russia to be able to rely on their gold reserves. Because of the sanctions on cash and foreign exchange reserves, many expected Russia to use their gold. But the LBMA and US congress are making moves to make it harder and costlier for Russia to sell its gold. This is reducing supply and pushing the price of gold higher and higher.
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The IMF working paper on the 'Liquidation of Government Debt' was first introduced in 2011, and then updated in 2015. This details how governments can use financial repression tools to ease their own debt burdens by transferring it to their citizens. Tools such as zero interest rates, price controls and capital controls. All in an effort to transfer the wealth of individuals to the state.
IMF Paper: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1507.pdf
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The dollar has strengthened recently, and its dominance as the global reserve currency has been called into question. Mostly due to the recent sanctions on Russia, the incentives are now in place for global actors to diversify away from their reliance on the dollar. Even Jerome Powell admitted the status of the global reserve currency could change soon in his recent testimony to congress.
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Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress on Wednesday about the near future path of monetary policy at the US central bank. He reiterated the plan has not changed. This plan includes the completion of net asset purchases to the fed's balance sheet, then beginning raising rates, and reducing the size of their balance sheet after that. But they are watching the Russia/Ukraine situation and that may cause them to change course.
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The headlines these days are so preposterous, it is almost impossible to tell what is satire and what is not. In the latest example, Europe is discussing whether or not weapons should be listed as ESG assets, which would give them more favorable access to financing. This proves the agenda is not one of caring for the world, but one of power and money.
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It is possible we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the reign of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The incentives are now heavily in favor of building and using alternative payment systems. The direction is headed towards using currencies and money that neither party in a transaction controls, and possibly towards a currency that no country can control. When the history books talk of the death of the dollar, it is likely this time period is marked as the turning point.
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Zoltan Poszar released a report detailing the risks in the global financial system as a result of the sanctions laid against Russian banks and their central bank. Essentially, he likened it to another Lehman event, as a major financial player is unable to make dollar or accept dollar payments. This could cause major problems that the central banks including the Federal Reserve will have to mitigate by providing ample liquidity to at risk counterparties.
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The data about ships at port may be technically true, but it does not truthfully convey the situation. Instead, it papers over the reality that the supply chain issues are still getting even worse, with no end in sight.
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Flexport Data https://www.flexport.com/research/ocean-timeliness-indicator/
War has begun. Russia has invaded Ukraine, and the rest of the world is watching to see how things unfold. Western nations are vowing retaliation, but action could be limited. Meanwhile, China may be making a move on Taiwan. All of this has thrown global markets into turmoil.
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Putin Speech https://www.barrons.com/news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-s-full-speech-01645738807?tesla=y
This is hilarious. In the midst of authoritarian crackdown on financial accounts, the Canadian government was embarrassed by the response it got from a court order to freeze the bitcoin wallets of certain citizens and collect data from them.
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Governments around the world are inching closer to central bank digital currencies. Those who are not prepared for their rollout are using trial forms of financial repression instead. Citizens in these countries are waking up and realizing that to the extent the government controls the money, they control your life. And if a CBDC is implemented in its full form, we will witness the most totalitarian state the world has ever seen.
The big question on all investors' minds right now is about the Fed tapering and tightening. Specifically about their balance sheet, what will it look like when they decide to start selling assets and reducing the size of their balance sheet? Depending on how they choose to do this, it could have very different results on the economy.
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This episode was conducted on behalf of Element Nutritional Sciences, and was funded by Gold Standard Media LLC and/or affiliates. For our full disclaimer, please visit: https://www.goldstandardir.com/element-nutritional-sciences-disclaimer-169/ https://elmtinc.com/overview/default.aspx CSE: ELMT I OTC: ELNSF
There is an ongoing and vicious debate between bitcoin maxis and goldbugs. But there doesn't need to be. There is room in every portfolio for both, and there is good reason to expect that they will benefit each other in the collapse of fiat, as different and competing forms of sound money.
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The annual stress test the Fed conducts on the largest banks is set to be more severe this year. We all know that the stress test is mainly for show, as the bailout will happen if they need it. But it does impact the bank's ability to get better capital requirements, issue dividends, and buy back stock.
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The national debt at $30 trillion is a staggering amount. However, it doesn't even come close to the total of the true debt load, which includes unfunded liabilities. But with the recent few years, we know that the federal government spends money into existence through debt monetization via the federal reserve money printing. So with the Fed backstopping the deficit, does the debt even matter anymore?
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Gold investors are starting to get excited... and scared. Is another smash-down right around the corner? From the looks of it, this rally is overextended. But the fundamentals are there to continue driving higher now that a real breakout has occurred. Gold should drive higher in the coming months, taking miners with it.
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The minutes were released from the lates Fed meeting and it indicates a more dovish approach than what fed officials have been indicating over the last week or so. However, it did indicate the Fed is willing to get much more aggressive in its approach to fight inflation if inflation pressures don't respond to the measured rate hikes and balance sheet taper. They may even go as far as "significantly" reducing their balance sheet by selling all mortgage backed securities.
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Credit spreads are widening. Homebuilder inflation is up 21% year over year. Retail sales are surging, up 3.8% despite consumer price inflation. And finally, the current situation in Canada is a glimpse into life under a CBDC, as a central bank digital currency gives ultimate control to the central bank over every financial account and transaction.
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Martial Law has been declared. Assets are being seized. Financial accounts are being frozen. Protestors are being forcibly compelled to do the government's bidding. Canada has fallen into Tyranny as Justin Trudeau has a power trip treating the truckers like terrorists. If you think this can't happen to you, Trudeau is proving that wrong.
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The President of the St. Louis Fed James Bullard is publicly voicing his concerns about moving too slowly against inflation. Given the severity and the persistence of inflation lately, Bullard says the Fed needs to be at 1% by July. Despite Bullard's opinions, the Fed must be more careful with their approach to inflation because they fear deflation much more. Either way, the deleveraging is inevitable.
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Unfortunately, tensions with Russia continue to build, as the news is reporting higher and higher likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, this intention is denied by Russia. In response, investors have been flocking to safe haven assets as markets are bracing for the volatility that a war could bring to the world.
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Commodities trade with futures, and there are two conditions futures markets can trade in. These are called backwardation and contango. Normally markets trade in contango. However, right now there are more commodities trading in backwardation than we have seen since 1997. Goldman Sachs analysts view that as extremely bullish.
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Inflation hits another record after months of continually hitting new highs. The CPI hasn't printed a 7.5% read since 1982, and that was before many changes were made to how inflation is measured. The surprising numbers sent bonds tumbling, yields soaring, and the rest of the market was left dazed and confused.
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Mortgage applications are on the decline, and fast. But prices are still going up despite the fact that higher mortgage rates usually result in downward pressure on home prices. Because of this, unaffordability is going through the roof and buyer sentiment is at an all time low. The inventory supply is just not there to meet the demand, and will not be for a long time.
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The general consensus is that rate hikes are bearish for precious metals since gold and silver do not produce a yield. However, history shows us the opposite, as the metals tend to sniff out the future of monetary policy and have already priced in what is happening right now. Given this fact, the federal reserve's position of tightening into a slowing economy looks very bullish for the metals moving forward.
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A new bitcoin mining ETF has just been approved. Peloton's leadership is out with the old, in with the new as they try to stop the sinking ship. The market is now pricing in up to 6 rate hikes just this year, and the Fed has a tool they can use to stop rates from going up too much even as they taper and tighten.
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Mergers and Acquisitions are on track to have a huge year in 2022 as we may see the completion of the largest acquisition in history with Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard for a staggering $69 billion. The ones who usually win from these deals are the investors in the companies being bought out - not the companies doing the buying. So how does one go about finding companies that have the potential to be acquired?
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This video was conducted on behalf of Starr Peak Mining LTD, and was funded by Gold Standard Media LLC and/or affiliates.
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The Fed is deleting data sets from their database. The Boston Fed has published new research on a CBDC. The UK has forced its citizens into a debt program for energy costs.
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In yet another recent record for prices, oil topped $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. While we may see some volatility, the fundamentals are there to push oil still higher for years to come. It all comes down to supply and demand, for both sides of the equation. This means we have to look at the value of the dollar as well to look at where oil is headed.
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The jobs numbers came out on Friday and surprised the markets to the upside, by a lot. Not only that, but November and December were revised upwardly as well. By a lot. This puts even more pressure on the Fed to taper and tighten.
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Safeguard Metals LLC was recently charged with fraud for misleading investors into purchasing collectors coins in their retirement accounts. They used deceptive language about secret laws to scare investors into buying numismatics that had far less precious metal in them than they were led to believe, and gave SafeGuard Metals massive profits.
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Peter Schiff's Gold Scam Guide: https://schiffgold.com/research-analysis/classic-gold-scams/
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Meta, previously known as Facebook, just set a new record for the largest drop in the total value of a company's stock in one day: $240 billion. This was about 26% of their total market cap and share price. So what does this mean? Is this a canary in the coal mine and a sign of what's to come? Or is this just the result of creating bad products that are not in the customer's best interest?
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Recent bills and upcoming executive orders are gearing up for a crackdown on crypto. All in the name of national security, protection against money laundering, and the usual reasons for increased regulation and taxes. But the industry isn't taking it lying down, they are standing up and doing everything possible to make sure that new laws and regulations don't cripple innovation and hurt our competitive advantage globally.
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The Fed cannot control markets forever, and once they lose control, it won't be pretty. Shawn Khunkhun, CEO of Dolly Varden Silver Corp joins me for a discussion about the federal reserve, bubbles everywhere, sound money and mining stocks. Given the fact that we have inflation on one side and crashing markets on the other, it's only a matter of time before things fall apart. Historically, during these time, sound money and mining stocks tend to perform well.
Investor Information Dolly Varden Silver Corp https://bit.ly/dlyvrdnslvr
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This episode was paid for and sponsored by Dolly Varden Silver Corp. The views expressed do not necessarily represent the views of the company. Nothing said should be construed as financial advice or investment recommendations.
Pensions are invested according to old portfolio models built on flawed assumptions. Further, they aren't getting the inflows necessary to fund outflows. This is causing fund managers to shift pensions into riskier and riskier assets. This will end with congress bailing out pensions by printing money, causing even more inflation.
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A senator in Arizona recently submitted a bill that would make bitcoin legal tender in the state of Arizona. This bill is likely DOA considering states are prohibited from declaring anything but gold and silver coin legal tender, per the constitution. This fact brings up the question: how in the world did paper currency ever become legal tender given the constitution?
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All around the world, countries are opening up and decreasing restrictions on testing and travel. However, this means that much of the newfound power governments have enjoyed recently would have to be let go. Seemingly right on time, a media blitz has started everywhere about a crisis that this time could turn into a real war - war with Russia. I sincerely hope tensions die down and we don’t find ourselves involved in another endless war.
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The Federal Reserve is beginning to engage in monetary policy that is at least disinflationary and may reach deflationary. This is at a time when inflation expectations are at all time highs, after a year of prices reacting to previous money supply growth. If the lag time between monetary policy and economic impact is about a year, this means the fed is building an air gap underneath the economy right as it is slowing down. When the gap hits in a year, things could get ugly fast.
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At least for the short term, we are starting to see the inverse of the last 4 decades. Interest rates are now on the rise, and equity markets are taking the hit. The long term trend still shows this relationship, just the other way around. Usually stocks are rising and interest rates are falling. So why is that? It comes down to economic decline and competition for capital.
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2021 just posted the largest growth in GDP since 1984, and that is adjusted for inflation. But where did that growth come from? And given the causes, what happens next time they need to do it again? There's no free lunch and the US is learning about diminishing returns in real time.
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The FOMC concluded their meeting today and they indicated they were on track to finish their asset purchases by early March, then would be looking at shrinking their balance sheet and raising rates. The key thing mentioned over and over again was the strength of the economy given the jobs market is what will give the Fed the capacity to fight inflation.
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The markets remained fairly flat on the release of the FOMC Statement today, largely due to the fact that expectations were fairly accurate about the near future of monetary policy and were priced in already. The Fed will finish purchasing assets in early March and plans to start raising rates afterwards.
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For all the information about the event in Dallas, see the link below. I would love to see you there!
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The Fed is between a rock and a hard place with fragile markets on one side and inflation taking off on the other. With their meeting ahead tomorrow, all eyes are on the Fed to see what the near future holds for monetary policy. Will they reiterate their resolve to tighten or verbalize implicit support for the markets? J
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Money is starting to pour into gold, and that could be a very bullish sign for the gold price soon. The ETF GLD just saw a record one-day inflow since the fund's inception. However, if push comes to shove, ETF shares may not be the best exposure to the price of gold.
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Stock indexes were down around 4% at the lows today and three of the major indices hit correction territory of 10% down from the highs. Subsequently the markets turned around as investors bought the dip and sent markets rallying to close green. This stunning turnaround leaves investors wondering whether the selling is finally over or this was just a dead-cat bounce on the way lower.
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As wages get more expensive, the incentive is to find ways to buy less labor. This has resulted in big banks cutting staff and advising other companies to do the same in order to keep their costs in check. As wage inflation persists, more and more companies may end up doing the same.
The Euro faces many challenges right now, some of which are unique to a currency that is controlled by not just one nation. This has led to problems of abuse by irresponsible nations who have gone far too deep into debt, and has allowed the ballooning of balance sheets of major European banks that each threaten the global financial system.
Jeremy Grantham details why, in his opinion, the market is in a massive bubble and has already started to crash. Further, he doesn't think any intervention by the central bank will be able to stop it.
The Federal Reserve issued a paper detailing some of their research on the benefits and potential issues with a central bank digital currency issued by the Fed. The crucial part is that they are asking for public feedback on a CBDC and this is a rare window of opportunity to speak into what the central bank does. It is simply too dangerous to allow the power a CBDC would grant to fall into anyone's hands.
Fed Statement https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/money-and-payments-discussion-paper.htm
Fed Paper https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/money-and-payments-20220120.pdf
Feedback Form https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/forms/CBDC
For over two years now, I have assumed that it was a lack of cash and overabundance of collateral that caused the repo market to blow up in September of 2019. However, there were some other things going on at that time that coincided with the repo rate skyrocketing. And these things were happening in Europe with the ECB and particularly the risk with Deutsche Bank.
Price controls are a sure way to stop inflation in its tracks by legally limiting the prices of certain goods or services. Unfortunately, the results of price controls are many times worse than the high prices themselves. Even in disaster scenarios, the profit incentives are there to fix the pricing issues, and interfering with that mechanism makes the problem worse.
Interest rates are sending a strong signal to the economy right now. With the yield curve partially inverted, flattening, and triggering selloffs in many risk-on assets, the picture does not look pretty right now. The longer this continues, the higher the odds are it triggers a meltdown with an over-leveraged and irresponsibly invested financial institution.
There was some strange performance in silver today, with an up day of over 2% and close to 3% during parts of the day. This performance came despite the rest of the market being down or sideways, including gold.
The central bank in Japan, the Bank of Japan recently indicated they have no plans to normalize, raise rates, or tighten monetary policy. Inflation is still below their targets and they will not be changing course any time soon. This despite the rhetoric from the central banks around the rest of the world becoming increasingly hawkish and the Fed indicating plans to tighten faster than originally anticipated.
Lyn Alden Article https://www.lynalden.com/economic-japanification/
China's trade surplus continues to grow every year as demand for their exports surges year after year from all around the world. But all they get in return is worthless fiat. Who is really getting the short end of the stick?
Next time the stock market starts to crash, the "traditional" tools won't work. Every time a crisis happens the reckless policy makers have to add more and increasingly severe interventions to rescue the markets. Next time around they will start buying stocks. When that happens, it's game over.
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The True Money Supply is a different measure of the total quantity of money than the more widely known M2. The severe slowdown in the growth of the money supply indicates that a recession is around the corner. The reason for this has to do with the malinvestment caused by the growth in money in the first place, and the slowdown in growth revealing the rot in the system.
Despite what the elite and policy makers would like people to believe, inflation is not good for the poor. It does not hurt the rich. In fact, inflation is a wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. The solution is to shut off the money printer, which is the source. The solution is not to focus on symptoms.
Interest rates on mortgages have been on a tear the last few weeks and are now at levels not seen since March of 2020. Does this spell disaster for the housing market? Are we at the end and about to witness the collapse of another real estate bubble?
Congress must be full of geniuses. What other explanation could there be for so many senators and representatives outperforming the market so significantly and consistently? Clearly there are no other explanations such as insider trading and investing before key decisions are to be made about where government funds are going to be allocated and which companies are going to win large government contracts.
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Inflation reached 7% for the first time in almost 40 years. Despite the rise in prices, real earnings have been dropping as the price gains have not been making their way through to wages. This means that though wages have indeed been going up, they have not been going up enough to keep pace with inflation.
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Powell testified before congress on Tuesday during his confirmation hearing regarding his next term. He reiterated the Fed's commitment to withdrawing support from the economy by tapering, raising rates, then shrinking the balance sheet. Unfortunately, the crash that follows will mean the next round of stimulus will be the one that the economy can't handle.
When the silver vault supply increased mysteriously by 300 million ounces, everyone was wondering where the new metal magically came from. It turns out that the silver likely came from a short by Bank of America. Even worse, they have had to double down and are likely short 800 million ounces now... without profits. When these shorts inevitably start closing out, the price can only go up.
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Despite the volatile price action, gold continues to push higher. This despite the tapering and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the federal reserve. So why would gold perform disappointingly during high inflation, and now start to perform well when the fed is beginning to deploy deflationary forces?
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Many people loosely use the claim that paper markets, especially derivatives, allow the rampant manipulation of prices. But few understand the mechanics of how derivatives impact the price of the underlying asset, if at all. In this video we break it down to discover if and how derivatives can be used to manipulate prices.
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My son joins me in this video where we talk about what the Fed is and why I think it is time for the Fed to end. He asked me a few days ago to explain the Fed to him and he thought it would be fun to make a video about it. This video was a lot of fun to make and I hope you enjoy watching.
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The Economic Ninja joins me to talk about something that most people were not aware went into effect. Mobile payment processors like Venmo, Cash App and Apple Pay will now be required to issue a 1099 to show the IRS potentially taxable income if your transactions exceed $600 in a year for goods and services. While this income was always taxable before, the information gathering is stepping up to a whole new level.
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How far will the federal reserve be able to take the taper before things start to break? Will they be a able to bring their purchases to zero? Will they be able to raise rates? Well some Fed officials believe they will get that far, and more. The minutes from the recent Fed meeting indicate some fed officials want to start selling assets to reduce the size of the balance sheet at the same time as they raise rates.
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Many people doubt the Fed's resolve to taper their asset purchases and bring their net monthly purchases down to zero. So in this video we look at the last two months to see how they add up, and look forward to what happens if and when they reach the completion of tapering. Just because they aren't buying assets "on net" doesn't mean they aren't buying anything at all.
Yields, especially at the long end of the curve, have started to rise dramatically. This is in anticipation of the federal reserve's response to inflation. As the fed finishes tapering their asset purchases this year and starts hiking short term rates, this will put heavy downward pressure on growth, and the economy is not strong enough to handle it.
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Reading books seems to be a dying practice. Unfortunately it is one of very few habits that is virtually guaranteed to produce a positive ROI and help to change someone's life for the better. So this video has three practical steps anyone can take to become a high-volume reader.
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Many of you have noticed and commented on my weight loss journey this year. My approach has been non-typical, and so have my results. During the first five months of 2021, I lost 50 pounds. The best part is, I’ve kept off the weight, and learned some very helpful life lessons along the way.
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The legacy financial system is built on a foundation of centralization and censorship. This lates error displays how vulnerable the system is to authoritarian control. This cannot happen under decentralized sound money systems.
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Tariff Engineering is the practice of designing your product in a specific way so that it falls into a category of goods with lower tariff rates. This practice is widespread and causes all kinds of misallocation of resources, making the whole idea of tariffs seem counterproductive.
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Even though IPO's have had a record year in terms of how many companies have gone public, they are having a terrible year in terms of performance. More specifically, this last few months have seen IPO's decline significantly, and the vast majority of IPO's are now below their IPO price.
Article Referenced: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipos-had-a-record-2021-now-they-are-selling-off-like-crazy-11640773806
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Intellectual property laws are a double-edged sword, at best. At worst, they end up accomplishing the exact opposite of the intent - solidifying power and market share in the hands of monopolies with the most resources and power.
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Stocks are breaking out to all time highs despite big red flags waiving strong in the economy. There are signs the current rally is a blow-off top, a melt-up that takes place before a crash. The crash is trigged by the tightening of monetary policy that led to the rally in the first place. Between breadth, tapering and leverage, this rally doesn't look sustainable.
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If you're watching this video, chances are you have the ability to give back this holiday season. Join me in generosity this season and start building a perpetual giving machine with a donor advised fund, and give locally to homeless shelters, halfway houses and food kitchens. Merry Christmas!
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Risks are growing alongside the geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan. China views it as inevitable that full reunification will happen, and is willing to go to war to make it so. However, Taiwanese independence is at least partly crucial to US national security. How this plays out is anybody's guess, but one thing looks certain: the market is not pricing in the proper amount of risk in Taiwan, given Taiwanese equities trading near all time highs. This presents a fantastic short opportunity.
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Population growth is vital for economic growth, and the two are tightly correlated. But the United States just had the lowest population growth in history, and it was close to none at all. So what are the factors that are causing the population growth in the US to slow so significantly, and what can be done?
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Aleksander Svetski and I discuss freedom of speech, decentralized apps, risk in complex systems, and more in this eye-opening conversation. Aleks founded Amber App to give anyone the ability to easily and automatically "stack sats" and dollar cost average into bitcoin.
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Turkey's inflation rate is spiraling out of control. Yet, the central bank just lowered interest rates. The monetary and fiscal irresponsibility there has now led to a stock market flash crash, falling over 8% in one day, and only stopping due to circuit breakers shutting down trading. As bad as this seems, Turkey is just the writing on the wall for every nation on earth that engages in the same inflationary financing of government spending.
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Why did a $7.5 billion hedge fund just decide to close up shop and return money to their investors? Well contrary to what it might sound like, it wasn't due to bad investments blowing up in their face. This is despite the rumors of AMC shorts hurting their performance. In fact, it looks like the strategy didn't align with the current economic situation where the easy monetary and accommodative fiscal policy support failing businesses and make investing successfully very difficult.
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The Fed just announced they are speeding up the pace at which they are reducing their asset purchases. Further, they are currently planning on hiking interest rates 3 times during 2022. This communicated extreme confidence in the health of the economy to markets, but will inevitably result in a crash.
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The Reverse Repo Facility at the Federal Reserve has blown up to astronomical levels over the last six months as the scramble for collateral has left banks with excess cash. But now, the debt ceiling increase will allow the Federal Government to issue debt once again, increasing the collateral in the system. The Fed should push money back out of reverse repo to help sustain demand for treasuries despite high inflation.
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Executives and insiders are selling stocks at a record pace so far in 2021. At the same time, company share buybacks are rocketing higher. Why are these happening at the same time? Well, as with most things, if you pull back enough curtains you eventually find the Federal Reserve and easy monetary policy.
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Many are familiar with the old stories of bank runs, when people stormed the banks to redeem their cash for gold. Classically, there was not enough gold to redeem all the claims on that gold. But what is interesting about these bank runs is that today, high inflation numbers are a sign of the exact same thing happening. Except instead of people trying to redeem their cash for gold, people are redeeming their cash for goods, services, and assets. Prices rising is an indication that there is not as much wealth in the system as the amount of money would suggest.
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Some people point to early 2020 as the end of capitalism in America. Some place the blame further back at the way the Great Financial Crisis was handled. In my opinion, we have to take it back one more decade and watch the collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. As the story will tell, this was the day that when free markets began to die.
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Inflation just hit a fresh record, this time levels not seen in 40 years. This is a big deal considering the way we measure inflation today is much more muted than when we last saw numbers this high. But considering the cause of inflation, is it possible we see a slowdown in inflation before it really starts taking off again?
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Great empires have risen and fallen many times throughout history. This means that if you study history, you can begin to recognize patterns about what causes powers to rise and fall. Ray Dalio recently wrote a book called Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order in which he builds archetypical cycles of great powers and gives guidance on living and investing through the changes.
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In May of 2020, the money supply seemingly surged. Though this didn't make any news headlines, many screenshots of the Fed's measurement of the money supply continue to circulate online. But everything is not what it seems. So why did M1 money supply spike overnight, while M2 didn't change at all during the same time?
M1 Money Supply https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM1NS
M2 Money Supply https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
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The responsibility of printing money lands on the shoulders of the Federal Reserve, or so common knowledge would suggest. But when they engage in Quantitative Easing, or QE, is it actually money printing? Or in other words, does the money supply increase? In this in-depth walkthrough, we look at the exact path that dollars take from birth to death and what the causes are of new money coming into existence to see if QE by the Fed is actually the culprit behind it all.
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Watch Steven Van Metre's video: https://youtu.be/Q3mHss_yfJ0
There are two indicators that suggest the current selling is over, or close to it. This means it's possible the stock market is headed higher, as sentiment and options volume indicate extreme bearish sentiment has been priced in. A big crash could be coming soon, but it doesn't look like this is it.
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Russia seems to be readying an invasion of Ukraine. In response, the United States and some European trading partners are preparing to lay sanctions on Russia. These would include blocking Russia from the SWIFT system, effectively locking Russia out of any world trade in dollars. However, this set of deterrents might not be quite strong enough.
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With inflation running out of control, many are expecting the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates soon. After all, back in the 70's Paul Volcker got inflation under control by jacking up interest rates to sky high levels. But the situation in the 70's was far different than it is today. To understand why, you have to look at all the factors including total debt, debt as a % of GDP, and the cost of servicing that debt. In short, the Fed is trapped.
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Margin debt has been hitting new all time highs for close to two years now, but the growth is slowing down. At some point, and probably soon, the music stops and someone is left without a chair. Being leveraged long is a very crowded trade right now, and could lead to a viciously fast unwind.
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The Federal Reserve recently announced the launch of the New York Innovation Center. The center will be responsible for developing technology to improve the dollar payments system, specifically in the area of speed and international payments. However, the center will also be responsible for researching the development of digital currencies and Central Bank Digital Currencies, or CBDC's.
Fed Video: https://youtu.be/P1murzGZfkE
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While many people agree that money printing is the cause of prices rising, it is still difficult to articulate exactly why that is the case. In this video we discuss the mechanisms of how money transfers value and allows the value of production to be stored. Further, we look at how the creation of new money out of nothing undermines the value of production stored in money.
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Ray Dalio reiterates his long-standing position that cash is not the place to be even in today's markets. Despite the appearance that we are going to have some sort of a crash at some point soon, the intervention by the Federal Reserve to put a stop to the pain will reverse the drop in prices and we will see an acceleration of the current inflation. It seems we are headed down the same path many currencies and countries have taken before.
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Powell spoke before congress recently and indicated the Federal Reserve would be discussing the possibility of reducing their asset purchases at an even faster pace than their currently planned reduction of $15 billion per month. As I have been saying, this is going to reveal the rot in the financial system that is already there, just hiding under the printing. The faster the printing stops, the faster they have to fire it back up again.
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Congress is running up against another major deadline in the first few days of December. Debt ceiling. Government shutdown. Biden's Build Back Better spending plan. And still, there is no end to the disagreements in sight. Will they figure things out at the final hour yet again?
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In a recent Twitter exchange, Bloomberg Editor Joe Wiesenthal and Austrian Economist Bob Murphy were discussing the morality of systems designed to allow savers to maintain their purchasing power vs systems that erode the value of money over time. The issue comes down to property rights and the real effects of inflationary systems vs deflationary systems.
https://mises.org/wire/joe-weisenthal-thinks-debasing-dollar-moral-thing-do
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The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate given to them by congress. They are required by law to seek stable prices and maximum employment. The fact of the matter is that the data they use to make decisions is inaccurate, lagging, and not representative of reality for almost all Americans. However, the data is showing that they can no longer ignore the inflation mandate in favor of maximum employment. The taper is on.
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The Fed has been talking about talking about tapering for quite a while now. And in light of the recent and persistent record breaking inflation numbers, the Fed finally announced that this month they would begin to reduce their asset purchases. However, hidden in the language is what many are saying is proof they will never actually taper. Specifically, the language states they will reduce their minimum purchases, and there is no cap. So is the taper even real?
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October continued the trend we've been seeing develop in real estate for almost two years now. Tight supply, steady demand, higher prices, and first-time home buyers getting priced out of the market. It's only a matter of time before rising mortgage rates put pressure on this trend, but how high can rates go? And what happens when the Fed responds to the next crash and interest rates hit the floor?
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Biden nominated Jerome Powell for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The markets reacted to this news with anticipation of the taper plan continuing as Powell is more hawkish than those who may have replaced him. Likely the choice is in line with the administration's recent rhetoric about taking action against inflation.
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Given the rapidly increasing inequality over the last few decades, and given the rapidly increasing supply of money funded by the Federal Reserve, many reasonably point to quantitative easing as the source of the inequality. As with all complex topics, though, the answer is a little bit more nuanced than that. Lyn Alden breaks down the causes of inequality and how the relate to QE, and I provide a summary with a response.
Lyn Alden's Article: https://www.lynalden.com/qe-and-inequality/
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The infrastructure bill was recently signed into law. It will take some time to work out exactly how the $1 trillion will work its way into the economy and into various projects, but one thing is certain. When measuring the net effect, it will result in less total wealth than what there would be absent the execution of the bill.
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Bitcoin has so far proved its worth as a secure way to store value without fear of payment censorship or seizure. But as the network grows, the practicality of using it as a true medium of exchange diminishes. This is because the heavy emphasis on security makes the speed and cost of using it for every daily transaction impossible for everyone. The Lightning Network changes this. The Lightning Network could very well be the key that turns Bitcoin into universally used money.
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Lately, many people are still saying we have deflation right around the corner and that the current inflation is temporary because they are clinging to old, broken models of the economy that just don't work. Money Velocity as necessary for inflation not only fails in light of current reality, but it also doesn't hold up to scrutiny when looking at how it is calculated.
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The dollar is getting stronger. This is widely misunderstood. First, it is necessary to understand what is meant when people talk of dollar strength. Second, a strengthening dollar could have a domino effect of economic trouble that starts in emerging markets.
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While many people are concerned about where the government spends its money, a bigger concern is where the money comes from in the first place. Because not all forms of income for the government are created equal. There are big differences in the net results of funding the government through debt, taxes, and printing.
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The cost of money is arguably the most fundamental, the foundational issue that lies at the root of all economic problems. This is because the price of money is what influences economic calculation. If correct economic calculation is not possible, then the result is systemic malinvestment, depletion of the savings pool, and the boom/bust cycle.
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Many Bitcoin maximalists proudly proclaim they will never sell their bitcoin. This is founded in the belief that it will eventually be worth many times more than what it is worth today. And in fact, if it does become universal money, it will absolutely have to be worth much more than it is today. However, given the fact that the best case scenario for bitcoin is that everything else is priced in BTC terms, the "buy, borrow, die" strategy will both cease to work and cease to be a profitable or beneficial one to use.
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Elon Musk recently ran a poll on Twitter asking his audience if they wanted him to sell 10% of his shares in Tesla. The results and his pledge to honor the poll indicate that he will now move forward with selling 10% of his holdings in his company $TSLA. Will this send the stock careening downward? Why would he leave the fate of billions of dollars in taxes alone up to a Twitter poll?
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Zillow has been making headlines due to the thousands of homes they bought at prices much higher than what they can sell them for. Many people are asking themselves whether this is a sign of the beginning of the next housing market crash. Unfortunately for anyone looking for deals, this may have the opposite effect of removing inventory from the retail market... for good.
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Biden's nominee to head the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency wrote a proposal to overhaul the Fed and the banking system. This proposal was recently published, and it contains some absolutely insane "solutions" for the fragility in our current economy. These crazy suggestions include all demand accounts being held at the Fed, the Fed retaining the ability to credit and debit any accounts, and the Fed being given the ability to short stocks in order to "stop bubbles".
Paper Referenced in Video: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3715735
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The economy is addicted to easy money and cheap credit. But so is inflation. The Fed is staring into the abyss of hyperinflation and choosing to tighten instead. The problem is, this will trigger a crash, and soon. Right now, they are only reducing their monetary expansion. But as it will very soon become necessary, they will reverse course to "rescue" the economy once again.
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Lessons about economics are all around us, including the pricing of menu items at the best burger restaurant in existence. Because at first glance, it is not apparent why certain pricing decisions are made. And if the decision was left up to someone far removed from the local information, the outcome would be less than ideal.
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With the plans to spend trillions of dollars, politicians are scrambling to find ways to implement new taxes for the appearance of paying for the bills. One of the proposed solutions to increase tax revenue was to eliminate the backdoor and mega backdoor roth contribution. Now that their elimination is out, it's a good time to take advantage of these tax-saving strategies before it's too late.
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We are approaching a fork in the road where the Fed will have to make the tough decision to pull back on its assistance to the economy. The problem is this will trigger the next crash that will necessitate even more stimulus to "rescue" the economy yet again. The next round of stimulus, assistance and bailouts will be the final straw on the camel's back, and the economy will overdose on the six policy responses likely after the next crash.
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One person invested about $8,000 into Shiba Inu back in August of 2020. No trades have taken place in the wallet since. As of Oct 28th, the amount is worth about $5 billion. Yes, you read that right. Someone turned $8,000 into $5 BILLION. However, this exposes a vital lesson for any traders or investors. Because anyone who can watch $8k go to $5 billion will also watch it go from $5 billion back down to zero.
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The last year and a half has seen unprecedented levels of market intervention by central banks and central governments along with record levels of monetary expansion. The easy monetary and fiscal policy has led to asset prices and consumer prices skyrocketing everywhere you look. Now, the Federal Reserve faces the necessary decision to tighten its policy or risk hyperinflation. However, this will be the trigger that causes the next stock market crash, just as the current boom is caused by their easy policy.
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Recently there has been a scramble in congress to make it look like they have figured out a way to fund the trillions of dollars they are planning on spending. One proposed solution is to implement a wealth tax where they tax unrealized gains. The problems with this solution include legality, practicality, and the results. But the real problem is where it would inevitably lead.
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Venezuelans have been ravaged by hyperinflation for years now, and their economy has been destroyed by it. This has put many Venezuelans into the position to look for alternative stores of value and mediums of exchange. While the solution differs from region to region, one area has done something nobody thought the world would ever see again. They are now on a gold standard again - with physical gold being traded for goods and services, and prices being denominated in grams of gold.
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You'll be hearing the word 'stagflation' a lot in the coming months, because we are going to be seeing a lot of it. But what exactly is stagflation, and how is it measured?
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There are multiple signs emerging right now that indicate silver is ready to shine. There are also a few points of caution, as markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Between sentiment, broad commodities, energy costs, technical setups, and inventory right now, it looks like the stage is set for a giant move up in the price of silver.
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Yet another report has been released revealing even more suspicious trading by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve. On October 1, 202, Powell sold in between $1 million and $5 million of stocks. However, the media is largely missing the point here. In fact, the very attention this trading is now getting seems even more suspicious than the trades themselves.
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The housing market is currently experiencing a spike in foreclosures. The question is, does this spell doom and gloom for real estate? Or will this end up being a blip on the radar with little impact on pricing?
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Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
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Consumer Sentiment has dropped again to pandemic lows. Despite asset prices everywhere being sky high, job prospects being better than they have in a very long time, and talk of a "booming economy", sentiment has rarely been this bad.
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November! https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
After many years of the crypto industry fighting for SEC approval of a bitcoin ETF, it seems the day is finally almost here. Barring any last-minute decision changes, it seems the SEC will be allowing the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF to be listed on Monday, and will start trading soon after. This will open the doors to huge pools of investor money that did not have access to bitcoin previously. The only question is, how much of it will buy?
Episode Links:
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Ledger http://bit.ly/ldgrwlt
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November! https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
September's inflation numbers were tied for the record since 2008, and were above consensus expectations yet again. With inflation being so severe and persistent, the messaging about inflation is about to change. First, it was impossible. Then, it was transitory. Now, they are starting to tell you to be thankful for it.
Episode Links:
APMEX https://bit.ly/2WoJHDC
OneGold (Get $5) https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November! https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
Referenced article https://www.reuters.com/business/inflation-revival-is-victory-not-defeat-central-banks-2021-10-13/
The August JOLTS report showed a new record in the number of people quitting their jobs. Many economists are left scratching their heads at this, especially considering how long it has been since government assistance has come to an end. It seems the real reason might be something that has been brewing and building for a long time, and may be the beginning of a trend set to undo many years of employment harm.
Episode Links:
Bullshit Jobs Book https://amzn.to/3FKfMrI
Outliers Book https://amzn.to/3BDqqyi
JOLTS Report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf
WTF Happened in 1971 https://wtfhappenedin1971.com
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November! https://go.1markmoss.com/joseph
Bitcoin has been on a tear recently and is back in the price territory not seen since earlier in 2021 when it was making all-time highs. The drivers, as always, are supply and demand. But since Bitcoin is a public ledger, we have access to data that helps us determine better investing or trading decisions.
Podcast Links:
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
Ledger Wallet http://bit.ly/ldgrwlt
Interactive Brokers https://bit.ly/2XU4sIn
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Game of Trades https://twitter.com/GameofTrades_
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November!
https://www.marketdisruptorslive.com/sales-page1628796709575?affiliate_id=3385406
There are more than a few problems with the recent push to tax the rich. Unfortunately, it doesn't work out all that well for the poor. If helping the poor is the goal, there are many more effective ways to do so than taxing the rich. Instead, it seems the goal is to tax the rich for the sole reason that they are rich.
Recent wage data shows strong and persistent growth in wages. Unfortunately, this comes after Americans have been feeling the burden of high inflation instead of before. Further, the rise in wages is contributing to sustaining demand that will drive inflation persistently higher.
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November! https://www.marketdisruptorslive.com/sales-page1628796709575?affiliate_id=3385406
Unfortunately, those in power will always find a way to continue to spend money because that is precisely how they keep (and gain more) power. With the debt default deadline looming, policymakers have found a way to delay the deadline by just two months to give themselves more time to find a more long-term solution. But what would we be able to look forward to if the government's spending capability was crippled by a default?
My Weekly Newsletter https://heresyfinancial.curated.co
Join Me at Market Disruptors Live in November!
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Many people are rightfully concerned about the reckless monetary policy and fiscal policy that their countries' central banks and governments are engaged in. This leads many to wonder what it will be like should it tip over into hyperinflation. The problems are complex, and it makes life extremely difficult for everyone, as shortages and unaffordability are widespread.
HELP LEBANON
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Bitcoin, Gold, Silver:
Store Allocated Gold/Silver (Get $5) https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
Stack Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
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Unless you are extremely fortunate, you've likely been frustrated lately at persistent shortages that continue to emerge. Many are wondering why these problems haven't just fixed themselves yet. Unfortunately, the nature of these complex systems and how problems can compound on each other means that there is no simple solution and likely no end in sight.
Market Disruptors Live https://www.marketdisruptorslive.com/sales-page1628796709575?affiliate_id=3385406
Hedging and Profiting on Volatility:
My Options Course (Beginners) https://gum.co/yvRjw
My Options Course (Advanced) https://gum.co/CIqDW
Unfortunately, the fact that stocks are near all-time highs tells us very little about the value of those stocks. Price loses meaning when the information it sends is distorted through manipulation of the money supply. So instead of looking at price, we have to look at other measures to determine whether the stock market is expensive, fair, or cheap.
It seems every day Modern Monetary Theory becomes less of a fringe idea and more of a reality. But there are a few hidden reasons why MMT can be extremely harmful, and they have to do with taxes. Because taxes are explicitly not needed for funding in the MMT framework. But just because taxes aren't needed for funding, doesn't mean they won't be there.
The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton https://amzn.to/3ijv2SE
Yellen was before congress on Tuesday and gave a hard deadline of October 18th before emergency funding has been depleted and the government defaults on its debt. Further, it seems all guaranteed options to avoid default have been taken off the table. Things could get interesting as it seems both sides of the aisle are unwilling to lose at this high-stakes game of chicken.
A great deleveraging is inevitable. Many are arguing about whether the possibility of inflation or deflation is more likely. The problem is, you get the deleveraging either way. And the deleveraging is the painful part. The individual winners and losers may change, but overall, the economy still MUST pay back the purchasing power that was already used in the past.
Every few years, the idea to have the Treasury mint a platinum coin worth $1 trillion to fund government expenses comes up again. Now, with political gridlock, government shutdown, and a potential debt default on the near horizon, many are pushing the trillion-dollar coin as a viable solution for the financial mess the government has found itself in.
China announced a complete ban on all cryptocurrency transactions. This is in preparation of a wider rollout of their CBDC as they do not want any competition. However, this gives us a glimpse into the future of what the global monetary system will be if (or when) the dollar no longer holds the status of global reserve currency.
Gold / Silver
- Buy Gold/Silver Bullion https://bit.ly/2WoJHDC
- Store Allocated Gold/Silver (Get $5) https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
- Gold/Silver IRA (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Bitcoin
- Buy Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
- Best Wallet http://bit.ly/ldgrwlt
- Bitcoin IRA (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
On Thursday the Whitehouse began notifying certain federal agencies to begin preparation for a government shutdown. Due to the fact that it looks like the current bill sent over to the senate will be voted down, a solution will not be reached in time before the September 30th deadline. However, this is not the same date that the Treasury runs out of emergency funds for principle and interest payments on its debt, which comes sometime in October.
Interest rates on treasuries across the yield curve have started to lift off as it seems the market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a few factors. The biggest one is seemingly the odds that the Federal Reserve will stick to their word and become less of an active buyer of bonds.
Shocker! A closer look at the portfolios of Fed officials revealed that many, including chair Jerome Powell hold positions similar or identical to what the Federal Reserve has been purchasing over the last year and a half. This exposes the flawed code of conduct rules at the Fed, but it also exposes the inherent conflict of interest with the existence of the Fed itself.
In the developing story of Evergrande's collapse, investors are watching to see what will happen. There are a few points of concern, including a collapsing real estate market in China and a severe drop in consumer spending. On the other side of the pond, the Federal Reserve may use this as an excuse to delay tapering and keep that printer running at full speed.
Everyone thinks it is a certainty that congress figures out a solution to the debt ceiling issue before emergency funds run out in October. Everyone, it seems, but the Fed. In fact, the Fed has a plan to deal with the fallout should the US Government start to default on its obligations. And this plan takes the Federal Reserve well outside of its legal boundaries.
Support the show on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/heresyfinancial
Real estate in China has been one of the main drivers of personal wealth and economic growth over the last few decades. This has driven much higher leverage as developers take advantage of the boom. But some developers have taken it too far with the implicit assumption of a bailout should they need it. However, in the case of Evergrande, it is unclear how their developing failure will be handled by the CCP.
My Options Course (Beginners) https://gum.co/yvRjw
My Options Course (Advanced) https://gum.co/CIqDW
Use Interactive Brokers https://bit.ly/3BegqLn
SOURCES
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/business/evergrande-debt-crisis.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-nightmare-evergrande-scenario-uncontrolled-160000957.html
https://www.epsilontheory.com/ever-grande/
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/eurozone-finances-have-deteriorated
Total global debt continues to grow and hit new records. While many will cite the drop in debt to GDP, the reason behind the drop means this is not as encouraging as it may sound. The honest truth is that the world has a debt load that cannot be repaid. There are two roads out of this mess, and they both lead to the same place: default.
The new tax bill proposed in congress would change the way cryptocurrencies are treated for investing and trading purposes. This would bring cryptocurrencies in line with things like stocks and ETF's, though the rule itself is already an overreach.
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Oil has been hit pretty hard over the last decade or so, and despite the recent gains it has left many shell-shocked investors eager to stay away. But there are building dynamics that look set to propel the price of oil higher for years to come.
SOURCES:
-Lyn Alden's Article https://www.lynalden.com/oil-and-gas/
-BOOK Energy and Civilization https://amzn.to/3liAB4s
-Supply Dynamics Video https://youtu.be/XNA7XGcHUmM
-Energy Charts https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix
-Petroleum Products List https://innovativewealth.com/inflation-monitor/what-products-made-from-petroleum-outside-of-gasoline/
-IEA Supply/Demand Forecast https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2021
In the latest move towards complete tyranny, the Treasury announced a proposal to have the IRS collect all transaction data from every single financial account with a balance exceeding $600. This includes bank accounts, investment accounts, and accounts with crypto exchanges. And the fact that this would be a direct violation of the 4th amendment may not be enough to stop this from going into effect.
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/131/General-Explanations-FY2022.pdf
Many people talk about the energy that bitcoin (and gold) stores for you as a reason for its value. The pushback against this argument is that is sounds an awful lot like the labor theory of value. And the labor theory of value is demonstrably false. So does the necessity of energy or labor have anything to do with the value of bitcoin or gold?
The cycles of history are converging, and Mark Moss is your guide through the transition to a world that is likely more different from our present than our present is from our past. For those in power, this may come as bad news. But for most, there is light at the end of the tunnel as a new monetary system will pave the way for widespread growth and prosperity.
Subscribe to Mark Moss at www.youtube.com/markmoss
Small losses are an integral part of every successful investor's or trader's strategy. It is simple risk management. However, it is also key to allow small losses in a system at scale, like an economy. Otherwise, financial "deadwood" can accumulate, risking the collapse of the entire system.
My Courses on How to Use Options www.heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
Books Mentioned in Video:
Safe Haven https://amzn.to/3BSkbGv
Market Wizards https://amzn.to/3zVz9Ll
Unknown Market Wizards https://amzn.to/3zRT2mq
Hedge Fund Market Wizards https://amzn.to/38P9Uyv
Yellen went before Congress yet again to plead with the politicians to either suspend or raise the debt ceiling. With a month left to go before emergency measures run out, the day of the United States defaulting on its debt draws nearer and nearer. If that day comes, it could mark the end of US Dollar hegemony around the world.
Forbearances lead to foreclosures, and foreclosures lead to a housing market collapse. Right? At least that is what most headlines have been suggesting since the start of the pandemic. But what does the data say? Do the numbers back up this claim that the housing market is in a bubble, and a crash is right around the corner?
Affiliate Links:
Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
Fundrise https://fundrise.sjv.io/Ygg2NO
The August Jobs report was a huge disappointment to anyone hoping for the Federal Reserve to start tapering their asset purchases soon. The treasury is still spending down their general account as the debt ceiling doomsday date draws near, and gold is perfectly replicating its long-term cycle.
Nassim Taleb's Deluxe Incerto https://amzn.to/3mO57VX
Gold Plated Silver Bitcoins https://online.kitco.com/buy/3127/1-oz-Silver-Bitcoin-Gold-Plated-Round-3127?fromSearch=true
The main argument against the benefits of deflation are the negative effects that deflation allegedly has on spending and consumption. So what does deflation really do to consumption? And is growth hindered as a result?
Is the Fed politically independent? The answer is technically yes, but it's different than you may have thought. Further, history has continuously changed the answer to this question, and the future may change it even further.
Every year, the trustees of the Social Security trust fund are required to produce a report that projects the 'health' of the trust fund. This year, the timeline until the trust fund is completely empty has been revised lower by one year, leaving only 12 years left for the fund. This leaves policy makers in a tricky situation, seemingly with political suicide as their only option. However, there is a third solution that is not being talked about, that will surely be put into action when the time comes.
Anytime you are looking at the annual average performance of any investment, it is vital to check how that performance has been calculated. Most of the time - especially for promotional material - they use the arithmetic mean. The only problem with this is that it is wrong. Instead, you need to use the geometric mean which accounts for compounding. This is also called CAGR, or Compounding Annual Growth Rate.
Every great lie has a kernel of truth. Modern economics is no exception. When examining the difference between the creation of a bond in the private sector and the creation of a government bond funded by the Federal Reserve, there are some small, but key, differences. One is a (temporary) wealth transfer, and the other is monetary expansion.
Jerome Powell spoke on Friday morning about the near future of monetary policy that can be expected coming out of the Federal Reserve. He was decisively less hawkish than other members of the Fed have been in recent days which sent all asset markets careening higher.
German citizens have a fear of inflation rooted deep in their collective memory after what they went through one hundred years ago. As a result, we've seen a spike in gold purchases this year by German citizens as they witness the monetary policy being recklessly deployed all around the world.
APMEX recently rolled out a new app that you can actually use to buy gold and silver bars and coins. So in this video, I walk through using it from initial set up through a real purchase so that you can see all the pros and cons for yourself.
APMEX https://bit.ly/2WoJHDC
More and more reports continue to come out about the lack of security, customer support, and problem resolution at Coinbase. This is nothing new, and has been going on for a long time. There are a few very simple preventative measures that anyone can take to ensure they don't fall victim to the same theft that has left so many with their holdings gone forever.
Swan Bitcoin: (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
Ledger Wallet: http://bit.ly/ldgrwlt
Everywhere we look, we see more shortages building up. This stands in sharp contrast to what growth looks like for all of human history. All real wealth growth brings abundance to scarcity, and humanity gets more for less. So why are we seeing so much scarcity and more shortages everywhere we look today?
The Price of Tomorrow https://amzn.to/3sLijKW
Energy and Civilization https://amzn.to/3pKuabV
How Innovation Works https://amzn.to/2UtsKnN
The Privatization of Roads and Highways https://amzn.to/3wOap6w
The numbers for 2020 just came in, and 61% of Americans paid absolutely zero in federal income taxes last year. This is true, but there is a catch. There is another 'tax' that everybody pays, and it is the most insidious tax of all.
Tax Free Wealth Book https://amzn.to/2WjH8Tk
The Fear/Greed index has moved steadily towards more and more fear in the markets all year long, despite the major stock indices steadily grinding higher. Normally, this index works as a contrarian indicator. But is the fear justified right now, especially given the Fed's alleged plans to taper soon?
My Options Course (Beginners) https://gum.co/yvRjw
My Options Course (Advanced) https://gum.co/CIqDW
The minutes from the Fed's July meeting were released and indicated broad consensus that the Fed should start tapering their asset purchases soon, and likely by the end of the year. This has big implications for the bond market, stock market, as well as gold. Unfortunately, they will reverse course at the first sign of trouble.
Palantir recently announced a purchase of physical gold worth $50 million in an attempt to prepare for a future with more frequent black swan events. This is in sharp contrast to many tech companies who have purchased bitcoin for a similar purpose. Not only does Palantir stand out for its recent acquisition of gold, but they have also recently completely deleveraged and become debt-free.
OneGold (Get $5) https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
The Treasury General Account has finally gotten back down to its pre-covid levels, which is where the treasury had targeted at the beginning of the year. The problem is the Federal Government cannot issue any new debt until the debt ceiling is either suspended or raised, and so the TGA may go all the way to zero. But record tax inflows are assisting with delaying this, potentially longer than expected.
The Fed can never taper. Coming off the back of some of the largest economic stimulus in history, US Consumer Sentiment just had its 3rd largest drop on record. With sentiment plummeting, fears of the specter of deflation are front and center in policy makers' minds. Things like this are what will force the economy into either a deflationary death spiral or a hyperinflationary collapse.
The Price of Tomorrow Book https://amzn.to/3sf9UAw
July saw an all-time record increase in producer price inflation year over year. This comes alongside forecasts that inflation has peaked. July also saw a slow-down in consumer price inflation, but we've also started to see more issues with ports in China that could cause further supply chain disruptions as we enter into a high-consumption season in the States.
Investing in real estate right now is highly controversial considering the record high prices and seemingly unsustainable housing boom. However, the fear of extended high inflation is also leading many people to look for inflation hedges. So how does real estate hold up during inflationary periods?
Fundrise https://fundrise.sjv.io/Ygg2NO
Roofstock https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
There have only ever been three types of monetary systems in history. Sometimes they have existed side by side, in competition with one another. At other times, they have ruled globally unchallenged. Despite the apparent future failure of fiat and the seemingly new invention of bitcoin, none of the current or future monetary systems are new to history. They have all been done before.
Debt: The First 5,000 Years https://amzn.to/3xBjLls
The Bitcoin Standard https://amzn.to/3CzHBBz
Audible Plus Free Trial https://amzn.to/3jLVUuc
Gold's performance has been less than stellar over the last year. This has caused many to take their losses and look elsewhere to invest their money. Because of the extreme bearish sentiment surround gold lately, it's important to keep looking at the numbers to determine whether or not gold is still able to perform its function as a store of value.
My Ultimate Guide on How to Buy Gold https://gum.co/DUkCt
The bond market sold off on the recent jobs report that beat expectations for July. With the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's next move being the only game left in the financial markets, investors have sold bonds expecting the Fed to start tapering their assets soon. There's only one problem - the Fed can't taper. If they do, all hell will break loose.
The United States is ramping up its efforts to crack down on cryptocurrencies. The new infrastructure bill has legislation included that may result in a de facto ban on cryptocurrencies here in the states. At the same time, the SEC is seeking to expand its authority from congress on the crypto industry. Despite this, the effects could have on Bitcoin are potentially very bullish.
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund is the largest pension in the world, and they just made changes to their portfolio allocation. Specifically, they made a record cut in the amount allocated to US Treasuries, cutting from 47% to 35%. This is just one more example of what has been taking place all over the world for a few years now. The world is dumping dollars.
Congress officially went on recess without addressing the expiring debt ceiling suspension. As of August 1, the Treasury has been forced into engaging in "extraordinary measures" in order to continue funding federal expenses despite the income from borrowing disappearing. Depending on how long this lasts until Congress agrees to a solution, the consequences may soon become severe.
In this video, we look at the coming wave of the word 'disinflation' which will be thrown around as much as the word transitory is used right now. But just like transitory, most people will misunderstand what disinflation means, and they will expect that it means prices are coming back down. On the contrary, it means precisely the opposite.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we cover the shocking realization that due to the pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not been consistently weighing food items that are included in the Consumer Price Inflation Index basket of goods. Because of this, all of the 'shrinkflation' that has happened over the last year and a half has not been accounted for in the official inflation metrics.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
My Weekly Newsletter https://heresyfinancial.curated.co
In this video, we look at a couple of pieces of data that show where we are at with the real estate market. We look at home buyer sentiment, rents going up, and political actions.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Roofstock https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
Fundrise https://fundrise.sjv.io/Ygg2NO
Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
In this video, we discuss the history of John Law and his Mississippi Bubble, and draw the correlations to what is happening all around us in various markets today. Instead of throwing in the towel, these are opportunities to take advantage of artificially higher or lower prices - and profit.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at the significance behind the Fed's decision to set up new repo facilities. Despite the claims this is to ensure a smooth functioning market, it is really just another step necessary in order to ensure full control over the yield curve and interest rates across the market.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we cover the main highlights from the FOMC Press Conference that took place July 28. There were a few surprises out of this meeting, one of which I've been predicting for a while. First, they are now officially setting up two standing repo facilities. Second, Powell defined "transitory" as referring to the rate of change, not the absolute price level.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at the current landscape of regulations, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and central bank digital currencies. More and more it is looking like central banks and central governments plan to use the regulatory framework for stablecoin adoption as a trojan horse for CBDC adoption.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at a brief update on what caused the recent spike and fall in the price of bitcoin. As is usual, it was not due to just one factor, but a few factors all lining up perfectly at the same time.
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, I give an explanation of how and why a description of something must inherently be false (in some ways) in order to be useful. My goal is to provide useful road maps which distill out the unnecessary junk and focus on the right path to get from point A to point B. While this approach renders certain things I say technically false, it is the only useful way to learn anything.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at the connection between what has been going on in the repo market and the upcoming debt ceiling suspension ending. Banks are currently experiencing a severe shortage of collateral, and the problem looks like it is only going to get worse as Congress delays the inevitable - raising the debt ceiling and starting to borrow again.
My Options Courses
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iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at the recent news coming from Capitol Hill. There is a political clash taking place and it looks like Republicans will refuse to vote on the debt ceiling issue before the suspension expires July 31. This means a shut-down just became very likely. Further, the Congressional Budget Office just released their "X Date" for when they expect emergency funding to run out.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at three key pieces of data that give us a clue about what to expect from the stock market over the coming weeks and months. We look at the trends in volatility, the market's Sharpe ratio, and the fear/greed index.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at money velocity from every angle. First, we look at the math and the assumptions built into how velocity affects prices. Then we take a look at the long-term correlation between velocity and prices to see how much weight this theory holds to the data. As you will see, it's not much.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this episode, we talk about the mechanics behind when and why price controls are usually put in place by central governments. Then, we look at the results of price controls and why those results come about. Finally, we look at what the inevitable "solutions" are when the original plans backfire.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this episode, we talk about the massive obligations that the federal government has that are usually swept under the rug when discussing how deficits should be spent. Even though the plan is to erode the debt burden using inflation, the reality is that expenses are piling up even faster.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we discuss the manipulative use of the word transitory, and how it doesn't matter one bit whether or not the inflation we see right now is transitory. Ultimately, what matters is the absolute price level, not the rate of change.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Source for Charts: https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/
In this episode we talk about how the real housing crisis is not what everyone expects. Almost everybody is looking for a repeat of the great financial crisis. The only problem is that if that's what most people expect, it isn't going to happen. In fact, the real problem is much worse.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Roofstock https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
Fundrise https://fundrise.sjv.io/Ygg2NO
Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
In this video, we talk about the choice Wells Fargo recently made to shut down all lines of credit. We look at the reasons why they may have made a choice like this, as well as the possibility this points to a future where it is harder and harder for banks to offer quality services to individuals. All thanks to central bank intervention and overstep.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we talk about why Janet Yellen is warning congress about the potential for a debt default. Further, we talk about the potential consequences of what a default would do to the financial system and markets.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we talk about how interest rates have been on a consistent and sharp decline. We are seeing narrative fallacy all over the place right now with mainstream media coming up with reasons. But in reality, this move should provide fuel to the inflation fire, not provide reason that inflation may be done.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we look at two arguments that people have commonly used against bitcoin being a viable form of money in the future, and therefore that bitcoin is destined for lower or zero. A few things have happened recently that have rendered these arguments false and no longer applicable.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 BTC) http://bit.ly/swnhrsy
Sources listed in vid:
https://mises.org/wire/can-lightning-network-lead-hyperbitcoinization
https://cnb.cx/3qKicjl
In this video, we look at the common problem of low dividend-paying stocks and what to do about it. If you are looking for ways to increase your income, the three strategies in this video are tools you can use to drastically increase the cash flow you are able to draw from a dividend stock portfolio.
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Interactive Brokers https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php
M1 Finance https://m1finance.8bxp97.net/QOKA3P
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In this video, we look at the reason why the stock market loved the June jobs numbers. Further, we look at how despite employers being desperate for labor, it is still difficult to attract talent. Despite the incentives, Americans are still reluctant to "get back to work" in the same way as two years ago.
Lambda School https://lambda-school.sjv.io/kjOPAz
iTrustCapital https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this video, we talk about the rarely considered hidden costs of a needlessly complex tax code. The amount of time, energy, labor, brain power, money and resources spent on simply navigating the tax code is astronomically large. It is a net drain on the economy, and what's worse is that it is unnecessary.
iTrustCapital (1st month free) https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
Tax Free Wealth Book: https://amzn.to/2SFgYJk
In this video, we look at the details behind the recent, triumphant announcement that so many countries around the world are agreeing to a global minimum tax. Despite appearances, the results will be far from what people expect.
iTrustCapital - https://bit.ly/itrstcptl
In this episode, we look at the chart for silver and see a very clean ascending triangle forming right now. I explain what this means for the buying and selling going on to cause this formation, and what it historically means for the price once a break out occurs.
TradingView (Get $30) http://bit.ly/tvchrts
In this video, we talk about the implications of the next six months now that Basel III is partially in effect. We also talk about how it strengthens the banking system in Europe and sets the stage for solid performance in the price of gold - now that the big players have the gold positions they want.
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we talk about the ridiculously complicated way that bitcoin is reported and accounted for on corporate balance sheets according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Because bitcoin doesn't fit cleanly into other categories, it is classified as an indefinite-lived intangible asset. This means unrealized losses are reportable, but only realized gains are reportable.
TradingView (Get $30) http://bit.ly/tvchrts
iTrustCapital (Get 1st Month Free) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we look at the root cause of the boom/bust cycle. In general, Austrian Business Cycle Theory holds that an increase in money causes the market interest rate to deviate from the natural rate, which sets in motion the boom/bust cycle. However, this would mean that gold mining could trigger a boom/bust as well. As you may imagine, we have to dig a little deeper than that.
Frank Shostak's Article: https://mises.org/wire/sound-money-versus-fiat-money-effects-boom-bust-cycle
In this video, I break down the details for the new advanced child tax credit checks that will begin disbursement July 15th. The amount a family will receive depends on both income and age of children. There are additional changes besides just the total dollar amount that have been made to the child tax credit for 2021, so I make sure you know everything you need to know about the new rules.
IRS Info Page: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/2021-child-tax-credit-and-advance-child-tax-credit-payments-frequently-asked-questions
In this video, we look at a significant number of signals that are popping up indicating the market may be near topping. If this is true, a correction could be right around the corner. We look at the signals, the counter-arguments, and how I prepare for uncertainty.
My Options Courses:
My Options Course (Beginners) https://gum.co/yvRjw
My Options Course (Advanced) https://gum.co/CIqDW
In this episode, we discuss the recent change in the reverse repo rate, and how it has drastically shifted the flow of reserves in the financial system. When a counterparty with zero risk offers a higher interest rate than T-bills, you get a tsunami of cash sucked out of the system straight into the hands of the Federal Reserve.
In this episode, we look at some recent statements by Fed officials that display the new level of division about the proper future path of monetary policy. Despite this, and despite the recent level of hawkishness coming from the Fed, their actions tell a different story. Asset purchases hit a 3 month high taking their balance sheet to a new record.
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In this episode, we look at the selloff in commodities amidst the spike in the dollar. We look at what has prompted this market action, which includes new supply from China. So is it time to buy the dip? Or is there more volatility to come?
In this episode, we look at the new data for federal tax receipts for the month of May. Because the tax filing deadline was delayed by only one month this year, we have to look at both April and May to get a clear picture of how much extra revenue the government is pulling in. It's a record, by a lot, and shows the reason why central planners are so set on causing inflation.
In this quick episode, we look at an overview of the Fed's response to the recent jumps in inflation. Namely, none. They are not slowing down their asset purchases and have no plans to raise rates this year or next.
In this episode, we look at yet another indication that this inflationary train we are on is anything but transitory. With the largest increase in single family home rents that we have seen in 15 years, even those who aren't buying houses are feeling the pain of asset price inflation. Luckily, if you want to do something about it, you can.
Roofstock: https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
In this episode, we look at the investing guidance given by billionaire and legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones. He says there are only two ways the Fed can go this week, and either way should prompt some big moves in the market.
My Options Courses
Beginners: https://gum.co/yvRjw
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In this episode, we look into where value comes from, and the economic mechanisms that translate that value into price. We examine the difference between price and value, and how intrinsic value is not only a figment of the imagination, but also unnecessary for sound money.
In this episode, we dive into the inflation data that just came out for May. We look at the reasons why pundits and the Fed are still adamant that the inflation will be transitory, and why they are likely to be wrong.
Everything You Need to Know About Buying Gold: https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this episode, we look at the preposterous, unforeseen consequences of central bank intervention in propping up markets. Due to the fact that the Federal Reserve purchases shares of junk bond ETF's, they own a small piece of newly issued junk bonds. This means that the Fed owns a small slice of Microstrategy's ( $MSTR ) recently issued debt that was raised to purchase bitcoin $BTC.
In this episode, we go over the reasons behind the new global minimum tax, as well as the implications of something like this going into effect. Despite the common rhetoric, it is not about increasing tax revenue for "cash strapped" governments or creating a "fair playing field" for families and individuals.
BOOKS:
Tax Free Wealth: https://amzn.to/3e9r220
How Innovation Works: https://amzn.to/2UtsKnN
Nomad Capitalist: https://amzn.to/2RD3Sfa
In this episode, we look at the four main differences between central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies. As the lines seem to be blurring, it is important to distinguish the two and recognize they are not the same thing.
Swan Bitcoin (FREE $10 BONUS of BTC) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we dive into the potentially monumental ramifications of El Salvador legitimizing bitcoin as money and declaring it legal tender. There are many unknowns, many pros, and many cons, but the direction El Salvador is headed is opening the doors to freedom and prosperity.
iTrustCapital (1 Month FREE) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we look into the details of what is going on with Russia's wealth fund getting rid of all dollar holdings.
Follow Me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/heresyfinancial
In this episode, we look at the last two times food prices became as expensive as they are today. Unfortunately, many countries around the world experienced riots, protests, and general civil unrest. What will governments do this time? And how can you prepare?
In this video, we discuss a few new pieces of information that lend to Basel 3 actually being fully implemented on June 28.
Ultimate Guide How to Buy Gold https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this episode, we look at the implications of the recent announcement by the Fed that they will start selling their bond ETFs on June 7th. Despite the fact that they should never have even been buying these shares in the first place, it is a good thing they are getting rid of them (albeit likely very slowly).
In this episode, we dive into why the Fed's mandate to seek stabile prices is confiscation of wealth from dollar holders. This would be the case even if price stability was actually being targeted instead of the minimum 2% inflation they are seeking today.
In this episode, we peel back a few layers of the trade war between the U.S. and China. Despite the many pointing fingers, there are few who look at what really matters between these two global economic giants. The real issue is what each country is accumulating, and it answers the question about who is to blame.
In this episode, we get a glimpse into the reason why gold has seen such strength over the last few months. The floodgates were opened and gold started flowing. This despite the bullion banks still caught short and seemingly doing what they can to close out their shorts before the price gets too high.
My ULTIMATE GUIDE | How to Buy Gold https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this episode, we discuss the problems with the continual overstepping of boundaries that the Federal Reserve is taking. So much so, that former Fed insiders and even bankers are starting to express their concerns.
Danielle's Book: https://amzn.to/2RMXBKk
My Interview w/ Danielle: https://youtu.be/K8enuzOw1qI
In this video, we talk about the reason behind the recent drop in mortgage applications. Contrary to what it would seem on the surface, this is not a negative indicator for the future of real estate prices. In fact, it is just another symptom of housing prices going up.
Roofstock https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
In this episode, we take an optimistic look at a few signs that point to the possibility that supply chain disruptions and shortages are now heading in the right direction and that the near future could see a more normal global distribution of goods and products.
In this episode, we dive into the two "big bets" that were recently revealed to be a part of Michael Burry's portfolio for his hedge fund Scion Capital. When you look into the details, it's likely that one of these is not as large as it seems, and the other may be misplaced.
My Options Courses
Options Foundations: https://gum.co/yvRjw
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In this episode, we take a look at the repo market yet again. Because it has acted as a harbinger of economic troubles, and because strange things have started to take place again, we are looking at the past issues with funding through the repo market vs what we are currently seeing emerge right now.
In this video, we look at what will happen if the Fed decides to taper their asset purchases, and potentially raise interest rates. Given the effects of their current policy, and the metrics they are using to judge when to taper, it is unlikely they taper. If they do, they risk sparking a deflationary death spiral.
In this episode, I explain the reality behind investing in bonds in today's environment. Given current interest rates and the current rate of inflation, the best-case scenario is no match for the worst-case scenario.
My Options Courses: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
In this episode, we take a look at the recent "flash crash" that took bitcoin from $42k, to $30, and right back up to $40k - all within just a few hours. Is this the sign a new crypto bear market is here? Or is this an opportunity to buy the dip on the way to new highs?
Swan Bitcoin (Get Bonus $10 of BTC FREE) Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
In this episode, we look at the recent data that just came out for April on housings starts. Despite the explosion in demand, homebuilders have failed to start new builds with a staggering drop. We look at the causes and the results. It's not pretty for anyone who wants to buy right now. Shirt Link: https://amzn.to/3yiY9f4 Fundrise: https://fundrise.sjv.io/Ygg2NO Groundfloor: https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
In this video, we look at an innovative product called a Goldback. They have figured out a way to "print" gold between sheets of high-strength polymer, resulting in low-denomination bills with real weights of gold that could someday circulate as money. This is a review and list of the pros and cons of this very cool product.
In this video, we look at a recent reporting revision by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and how shady it is that they "accidentally" reported much more silver than they actually had. Despite claiming a record increase, they now admitted the truth was less than stellar. This shows the squeeze is still on and it seems like only a matter of time until the silver price skyrockets.
Buy Silver ($5 free bonus): https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
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Read the Article from Bullion Star: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma-misleads-silver-market-with-false-claims-about-record-silver-stocks/
In this episode, we look at the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve. They are now purchasing more treasuries at the long end of the curve than they were before. This is outright yield curve control as they attempt to push rates back down "for a smooth and functioning market".
My Options Courses: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
In this episode, we look at the recent April numbers for the US Government budget deficit. Despite a record-setting month for income from taxes, the Government still managed to pull off a huge deficit - adding up to $1.9 Trillion so far this fiscal year.
In this video, we look at the recent tweets by Elon Musk about how bitcoin is not good for the environment, therefore they are no longer accepting it as payment on their website. Aside from how shady this is given recent potential market manipulations, Musk is wrong. Transitioning to sound money is the only hope for the environment long-term, and the financial incentives in Bitcoin are actually helping drive more green energy tech.
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC FREE) https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, we discuss the potential problems with Tether, and the allegations that its supply is at least in-part unbacked with no dollar reserves, then used to purchase massive quantities of bitcoin. I argue that even if this is the case, this is no different than central banks printing money to buy other assets like gold.
iTrustCapital: Bitcoin in your IRA (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, I explain why assets that traditionally hedge against inflation fell on the news of the largest inflation jump since 2009. Like every move lately, it has to do with the anticipation of what the Federal Reserve will do.
Have you ever considered using Acre Gold to store up a stockpile of gold bars? Watch this review first to see if this is the right service for you. Despite the quality of the end product, the service has many flaws. Acre Gold: https://lddy.no/owsz OneGold: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
How did the current monetary system come to be? Why are there limitations on how much money can be created, and what can be done with that money? Further, what are the implications if those limitations are removed, since they were built on the foundation of a monetary system that no longer exists? In this episode, we discuss the history of money that led to today, and how the future of government money may not be all it's cracked up to be.
Buy Gold & Silver: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
IRA/401k Gold & Silver: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Buy Bitcoin: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
IRA/401k Bitcoin: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Store Bitcoin: https://shop.ledger.com/pages/ledger-nano-x?r=f718968607e5
Learn about Gold: https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this video, we look again at the fundamental drivers of gold and silver. More and more of the stars are aligning and it seems the bottom is surely in for precious metals, with a massive rally just around the corner.
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, we look at the truth behind what is happening in labor markets right now. Monetary and Fiscal policy have accomplished the seemingly impossible. We have a labor shortage that exists alongside record low labor force participation. All thanks to the largest monetary experiment ever conducted.
In this video we look at some of the factors driving gold and silver to be used as money or driving it out of circulation. There seems to be an accelerating trend of states following the US constitution again and declaring gold and silver legal tender. But Gresham's Law would suggest this won't cause gold and silver to circulate as money again.
How to Buy Gold Ultimate Guide: https://gum.co/DUkCt
Easiest Way to Accumulate Gold & Silver: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
Buy Gold & Silver in IRA/401k: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we look at what is going on with Bitcoin recently. From corporate balance sheet pump-and-dumps to SEC delays on ETF approvals, is the future of bitcoin as uncertain as it seems? Or are these opportunities to buy the dip?
Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC FREE) Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, we look at some of the proposals for the new tax and spending plan. We focus on four that are particularly concerning and could have devastating, long-lasting outcomes.
Tax Free Wealth Book: https://amzn.to/2QIzoI6
In this episode, we cover the federal reserve press conference and Q&A time with Jerome Powell. It's almost laughable how many times Powell says transitory and tools.
In this video we look at the alarming signal the junk bond market is sending right now. Risk premiums are at levels not seen since before the 08 financial crisis and preceding the dotcom bubble burst. Are we in for another crash just like the last two times? Maybe not...
My Ultimate Guide on How to Buy Gold https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this special episode, I sit down with Lyn Alden and we get to hear her brilliant insights into financial markets, economic history, long-term cycles, and outlooks on various sectors. You don't want to miss this one!
Where to find more of Lyn Alden:
Website: https://www.lynalden.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact
In this episode, we DIVE DEEP into nuclear energy. The last few energy revolutions have benefited the world immensely. We are now at a transition point where the energy sources of the past are no longer sufficient to meet the needs of the future. Further, it seems solar and wind are not viable options either. Fortunately, nuclear is clean, cheap, safe, and has the potential to produce all the energy we could ever need.
In this episode we look at the truth regarding Powell's recent statement that the federal reserve has the tools to put a lid on inflation if they need to. We examine the reality of what will actually happen if they do try to reverse course and stop inflation, and whether or not they are likely to do it in time.
In this episode, we look at the differences between the various ways a private company can choose to go public, and what the risks and rewards are to each method. Just like SPACs, it seems direct listings will gain in popularity over the coming months and years.
In this episode we look at what really happened with $COIN insiders and how much of their stake in Coinbase they actually sold. If insiders truly did sell most of their shares, it is an ominous sign for the company. However, initial reports may not have told the full story.
In this episode, we take a look at the most recent crypto craze - dogecoin. I break down the difference between what is driving dogecoin vs the adoption of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and whether it is worth the risk or not. Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC FREE) Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
In this episode, we look at a few warning signs that indicate the stock market could be in for a massive spike in volatility soon. If so, it would be likely that we see a continuation of the melt up before a swift and severe drop, as retail money floods in to take the place of insiders who are selling at a rate they rarely ever have. My Options Courses: Link: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com My Weekly Newsletter: Link: https://heresyfinancial.curated.co
In this episode, we take another close look at precious metals to see what headwinds and tailwinds they are facing. There are many bullish indicators both fundamentally and technically, albeit some of them contrarian. OneGold (Get $5 FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode we look at the ramifications of the US increasing the weaponization of the dollar. The more a country abuses its position of power, the faster it erodes that power. This is especially true when dealing with a reserve currency. Further, two more US trade partners are at risk of being labeled currency manipulators by Yellen.
In this episode, we look at the lessons that can be learned from the largest private ponzi scheme in history. Namely, don't be a turkey. When you see performance that looks too good to be true, it probably is. Instead of seeking low volatility, recognize that risk is not the same as volatility, and volatility suppression causes more risk.
Use Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC FREE) Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
In this episode, we break down the exact steps necessary to create wealth by shorting a currency like the dollar. It is not enough to buy assets, because inflation can easily erode the gains. Shorting the currency will offset the losses incurred from a loss in purchasing power in the money used for the purchase.
In this video, we look at the recent record in the federal government's budget deficit. Despite the record spending, the national debt did not increase anywhere near the same amount, which is contrary to the norm. We look at how and why, and what the long term consequences of this spending habit tends to be.
In this episode, we look at the recent update to the Index of Economic Freedom and how the US is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, countries that were formerly part of the soviet union are already ranked above the US in economic freedom. What does it take for people to start leaving as it becomes less free?
Nomad Capitalist Book https://amzn.to/2OFrTAW
In this episode, we look at the recent inflation data. It was clear to many of us what the result would be from the Fed increasing the money supply so drastically and quickly. But not only is PPI up more than the last 9 years, we've also seen record inflows into stocks - more in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years.
In this video, we look at a number of technical factors that indicate gold mining stocks will sell-off over the next couple of weeks. This should be the final move down before miners break out of the bear market channel they have been stuck in since August of 2020. Once a breakout is sustained, a new bull rally should be fierce and quick.
In this video, we look at all the potential catalysts that could lead to a real estate crash anytime soon, and dissect them to see what the risks truly are. There are headwinds, but at least for the next few years, it looks like the tailwinds are going to be much stronger.
Roofstock https://roofstock.3k3q.net/XJX24
Groundfloor https://groundfloor-finance.sjv.io/mgRRvy
In this video we look at the stock market priced using gold, which has acted as money for thousands of years. By this measure, stocks are not the most expensive they have ever been, but they are getting up there. This measure also provides an indication of when it is a good idea to trade gold for stocks, and visa versa.
OneGold (Get $5 FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, we look at the bill just proposed to Congress that would eliminate capital gains taxes on specific precious metals sales. This would be a fantastic step in the right direction, considering gold and silver are really just money. But, even if it doesn't make it, there are 3 easy ways anyone can avoid paying taxes on gold and silver today.
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
Peter Schiff Gold Tax Guide Link: https://schiffgold.com/research-analysis/tax-free-gold-silver-buying/
In this video, we look at the recent announcement about a corporate tax hike planned to pay for the upcoming infrastructure spending. Despite first appearances, this doesn't mean corporations will have to pay an extra dime in taxes. But someone has to pay for it, and it isn't going to be the rich either.
In this video, we look at the recent reports that many democrats are urging recurring stimulus checks to be included in the upcoming infrastructure bill. Now that the precedent has been set, any time household incomes are deemed too low, we can just print money for stimmies. Though the consequences are worse than the original crash would have been.
In this video, we break down the real danger behind the recent failure of hedge fund Archegos Capital. Their failure to meet a margin call has resulted in billions of dollars of losses for at least two large banks. In this video we look at the domino effects that could come as a result.
In this video, we look at both current and historical data to show how stocks hold up against inflation. Are they successful at hedging? We take a look at low, moderate, and extreme examples of inflation and see how stock markets have responded all over the world. My Options Courses: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
In this interview, former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth shares insights on how the Federal Reserve operates, the consequences of their actions, and solutions moving forward - for both individual investors and society as a whole. Where to find more of Danielle: Twitter - https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA/videos Quill Intelligence - https://quillintelligence.com Fed Up Book - https://amzn.to/3vU2cNP
In this video, we look at the current craze with Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT) and I break it down so anyone can understand the pros and the cons. Then, we look at how to actually list and sell your own NFT if you want to capitalize on the fun.
In this video, we look at the next $3 trillion spending package that was recently announced. We look at what is included and the potential problems with central planning at this scale. My Ultimate Guide on How to Buy Gold: link: https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this video, we discuss the surprise announcement by the Fed that the suspension to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) will expire as scheduled on March 31st. This puts banks in a tight spot, forcing many to shed treasury bonds in order to make room to absorb deposits from the recent stimulus bill.
In this episode, we look at the reasons why the IRS extended the tax filing deadline this year. From mounting political pressure to facing technical struggles with processing the enormous burden of all the recent tax changes, the IRS is barely hanging on. Unfortunately, this is something that usually happens to countries on the brink of economic collapse.
iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this episode, we look at the three main takeaways from the Fed press conference today. Jerome Powell answered questions about inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy, and the result was a widespread rally in asset prices.
In this video, we look at a few indicators that show inflation is building momentum. In addition to that, everything coming down the monetary pipeline this year looks like we have even more inflation to look forward to - including a spike in money velocity.
In this video, we discuss the pros and cons of how gold and cash perform depending on the type of crash one expects to happen. They perform differently in each environment, and so you need to know both your goals and what you expect to happen to determine which one (or both) you want in your portfolio. My Ultimate Guide: How to Buy Gold Link: https://gum.co/DUkCt
In this episode, we look at five unique ways that anyone can make money in real estate, even if you are not already wealthy. Until recently, some of these investing methods were reserved only for those who were already wealthy. Today we cover how you can access a wide variety of ways to get exposure to real estate.
In this episode, we look at the economic conditions that are driving big money into assets like farmland. As the world de-dollarizes, local production of real goods will become wildly valuable. Luckily, anyone can participate in this - it is not reserved for the ultra-wealthy.
In this episode, we look at how we got to where we are today. There is much economic pain ahead due to the expedient choices policymakers have been making for decades. But this has happened before, in other places, and if you prepare well, you won't be a victim.
In this video, we look at what is included in the stimulus bill that was just passed. It includes a new round of helicopter money in various forms that promise to push prices higher. The worst problem, though, is the expiration of SLR suspension. It seems banks may not have the base equity required to absorb the tsunami of cash coming.
Bullion banks have finally reversed course. They have been massively net short - and increasingly so - for months now. Recently, though, they have begun aggressively covering. Lower prices combined with hedge funds selling have provided what the bullion banks needed to buy without driving up the price. This means some of the main drivers of the gold price may finally be working in its favor instead of against it. iTrustCapital (1-Month FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/gldbtc
In this video, we look at the recent price action and the market's reaction to economic data. The market looks poised for a big rally next week, especially in light of the fact that it has not sustained a selloff despite negative data. ►► My Options Courses and Guides Link: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
In this interview we discuss what is going on behind the scenes in the precious metals industry. I talk with Ken Lewis, CEO of APMEX and OneGold about the recent silver squeeze, issues with sourcing metals right now, and the potential for a bigger squeeze in gold. Buy Gold & Silver with OneGold (Get $5 FREE!) Link: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
In this short episode, we look at why Powell's remarks today caused bond yields to explode up and stocks everywhere to start tanking. In short, the market is addicted to increasing stimulus, and the status quo isn't cutting it.
In this video, we look at the next moves for the Fed, which may include both Operation Twist and full Yield Curve Control. We look at what each of those are, and why they matter. TLDR: The entire bond market is about to get eaten by the Fed.
In this video, we look at the startling fact that the Fed is changing the way they report the money supply - and doing so by eliminating savings and money market deposits from the data. This at a time when money markets and savings are about to explode as a result of the Treasury General Account getting drained to the tune of $1.2 Trillion.
In this video, we look at how asset prices are responding to (or anticipating) the likely flood of dollars to hit the economy this month. With the senate prepared to pass the next $1.9T bill, families and individuals are going to have a bump in cash to spend. This means inflation, higher assets, and higher interest rates until the Fed clamps them down. Swan Bitcoin (Get $10 of BTC FREE) Link: https://www.swanbitcoin.com/heresyfinancial
This interview with Jeff Booth is one of the most important videos to date on this channel. The overwhelming forces of deflation through technology are being counteracted by inflationary monetary policy. The longer this continues, the more destabilized our society becomes, and the worse the collapse will be. Watch for amazing insights and solutions to move forward into an inevitable future. Buy Jeff's Book: https://amzn.to/3pWEkoz Follow Jeff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffBooth
In this video, we break down what is in the current form of the new stimulus bill that looks ready to make its way through the house by the end of the week. Then we look at the effect it will have on asset prices and inflation.
In this video, we look at the six indicators Bridgewater uses to determine whether markets are in a bubble or not. While we are seeing some bubble dynamics appear in areas of the market, it has not spread over to the whole market like it did in the late 1920's or the dotcom bubble.
In this video, we look at a few indicators that point to gold and silver getting ready to explode. This could be the end of the 6-7 month correction that precious metals have been experiencing. From technicals, to interest rates, to supply issues, things look very bullish ahead. Use OneGold (Get $5 FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
In this video, we examine the lessons for investing that can be learned from the Texas blackouts grid failures happening. Though it is impossible to know the likelihood of a tail event occurring, you can still hedge for the worst possible outcome. My Options Courses: https://heresyfinancial.gumroad.com
In this episode, we look at the current situation with silver. Even with the shorts suppressing the price, it is still possible to get physical delivery of silver. But that can't last forever. At suppressed prices, supply runs out. Buy Silver from OneGold (Get $5 FREE) Link: https://bit.ly/3mS6dNo
In this episode, we look at the implications of the new Bitcoin ETF trading in Canada. Further, we look at the effects of a US BTC ETF would have, especially on GBTC. Finally, we look at some new risks that the rise in Bitcoin poise for investors.
In this video, we break down the recent article by Lyn Alden. Despite common beliefs, what Japan has done over the last few decades is very different than what the United States is currenly doing. Both from a monetary policy perspective and fiscal policy.
In this fantastic interview, Dave shares his insights on the forces shaping the markets, and where it looks like we are going next. Contrary to most, his nuanced forecasts include a melt-up, followed by the worst financial crash since World War 2, followed by a recovery and extremely high inflation.
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In this episode, we look at a fairly strong bullish case for oil and bearish case for Tesla. Considering supply/demand, production, and speed of green adoption for oil. Considering short squeeze, gamma squeeze, passive inclusion, and bitcoin purchase for Tesla.
In this episode, we look at a few forecasts expecting a massive, deflationary deleveraging and economic collapse. First, we look at the reasons why they say a crash is just around the corner. Then, we look at what might prevent it.