The Big Conversation: Recent Episodes
Real Vision Podcast Network
Each week we examine major themes driving the markets and use Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to assess the risks and opportunities for investors. Powered by Real Vision.
In this episode of The Big Conversation, Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald examines the possible reasons for the pullback in commodity prices and asks whether an impending recession is the main driver. If that is the case, then why do we see such resilience in 2023 corporate earnings especially when other data, particularly housing data, is pointing to estimates being far lower.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to see how financial markets may transition from 2022 and the year of the price shock to uncertainty in2023. Could that be the year of the growth shock? Whilst the consensus is for a slowdown, will it be deep or mild? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the recent decline in the dollar and what this could mean for Fed policy. The long-term relationship of a falling dollar is rising commodity prices. Therefore, an early pivot could run the risk of rebooting inflation. That in turn might require the Fed to remain on a hawkish path. Will the Fed start to ease off before they have got prices under control? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the outlook for employment and its implications for both recessions and equity markets. Equity markets usually make a major bottom during recessions and recessions go hand in hand with higher unemployment. Currently, unemployment is close to record lows. That could change, but will it be swift enough to allow the Fed to reverse course on rates? In the Chatter, Real Vision’s Roger Hirst talks to Kelvin Tay, Regional Chief Investment Officer at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore, about the likelihood of a recession in the US. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to tackle the question of why US yields continue to rise despite deteriorating economic conditions. The answer possibly lies a very long way from the US, in Japan. This week the BoJ intervened once again to stabilize their currency and that means selling treasuries - a lot of them. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s James Helliwell uses best in class data to make sense of the markets in the wake of the latest inflation data. With core CPI hitting a 40-year high despite seeing a slowdown in the headline data, investors are increasingly concerned by the broadening of price pressures, and the potential for this to fuel a wage spiral as workers demand increases to keep up with the cost of living. But might the Fed’s rate hikes bring this to an end by creating higher unemployment? In the chatter, Real Vision’s James Helliwell talks to Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, about some of the key trends and structural changes taking place beneath the surface of the labor market, and how these might influence the outlook for inflation, rate hikes and risk assets. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to look at the prospect of a higher oil price through midterms and into year end, and the surprising effects that could have on the consumer. Last week OPEC+ made the decision to cut oil production and it had the desired effect, a higher oil price. But couple this with less ammo from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve post midterms in a month, and we could see oil grind higher into year end. In the Chatter, Real Vision’s Roger Hirst talks to David Rickard, Director in Trading Solutions at LSEG, about several of these issues but in particular how they relate to higher government yields.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at markets that were breaking but are now bouncing. The stresses in the UK bond market and the strength in the US dollar has led to a repricing of a potential Fed pivot. But, if the markets pivot before the Fed, does that make a pivot less likely? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to ask the big question on everyone’s lips right now: “Are we about to see capitulation in markets?" With the help of Refinitiv’s exhaustive data, the answers lie in the keeping a close eye on measurements such as unemployment, consumer sentiment and the ISM. But keep an eye too on the correlation between assets, because that can be a very good sign that we are teetering on the edge. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the key role that US employment will play in defining the depth of a recession and the lows in the equity market. All recessions since 1970 have seen unemployment rise dramatically through the recession. So far, unemployment has not yet turned. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the dilemma for the Fed. If the economy recovers, then inflation should pick up. If the economy stumbles and the Fed pivots, inflation should pick up. Historically, it’s a recession that brings prices under control. Does the Fed need to manufacture one? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at market developments leading up to last week's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. An easing in financial conditions doesn't appear to be in-line with the wishes of a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has raised the risk of a significant re-pricing in risk assets. With one of the shortest speeches at Jackson Hole by a Fed Chair in recent history, Powell's comments came across firm and direct, as the Fed attempted to set the record straight. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the possibility of a pause by the Fed and potentially a pivot. A recession should cap prices, but if the Fed eases-off too early, prices could rebound again, as they did in the 1970’s. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best in class data to look at market positioning around a potential Fed pivot. With a strong rally in risk assets following the July FOMC meeting, the market seems to be pricing slower growth – and potentially lower inflation – which could lead an increasingly data dependant Fed to curtail its rate hikes. But, as more recent rhetoric from policymakers has downplayed recession fears and reiterated the need to get inflation under control, could the rally provide an opportunity for the central bank to assert its hawkish bias? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the rising expectation of a pivot from the Fed. Growth indicators are rolling over and many in the market want the Fed to support growth and abandon its fight against rising prices. But, if the Fed pivots too soon, it could lead to another painful leg higher in inflation. In the Chatter, LSEG’s Wayne Bryan looks at the European Energy crisis which could see Europe flirting with recession for the rest of the year and beyond. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Jamie McDonald looks at recent developments in various parts of the Treasury yield curve and whether it's signaling that the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign has finally tipped us into the recessionary phase. While nominal economic data has remained relatively robust here in the United States, the picture is less clear when factoring in the impact of inflation. Are fixed income markets hinting that the Fed is at serious risk of going too far? If so, we're already beginning to see hints that the Fed might be forced into another dramatic policy shift. In the Chatter, Indrani De, Head of Global Investment Research at LSEG, gives her outlook for inflation and the potential implications for various asset classes and equity sector rotations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether the recent run higher in the dollar will also spread to the Chinese Yuan. So far, it’s been the Euro and the Yen that have seen some of the biggest moves lower versus the US dollar, but will China sit back and allow other regions to take a competitive advantage? In the Chatter, we talk to Dewi Johns of Refinitiv Lipper about some of the key fund flows out of the UK.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s James Helliwell uses best in class data to look at whether the current growth scare in commodity markets will mean that the Fed can dial back its rate hiking commitments. The market has been lowering the terminal rate and bringing forward the next rate cuts, but the Fed still needs to get inflation under control. But will they flinch before then? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses best in class data to look at whether recent weakness in equity markets could have further to go amidst signs of an economic slowdown. Although regional manufacturing surveys are rolling over, there are mixed signals coming from other important indicators which suggest the outlook might not be quite so bleak, as guest Charles Van Vleet explains. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at whether recent weakness in some commodities are signs that demand destruction is starting to appear. Copper has been breaking down and crude oil has pulled back from the highs, but are financial conditions yet tight enough to bring inflation under control? An additional risk is the uncertainty around the Bank of Japan, which appears to have supercharged its loose monetary policy. Is that sustainable?
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses best in class data to look at the problems facing the world’s central banks. The ECB has convened an emergency meeting, the BoJ has reiterated yield curve control, and the Fed is debating a faster pace of rate hikes. With a new 40 year high in US CPI, it’s time to get serious. In the Chatter, LSEG’s Catherine Yoshimoto outlines the major liquidity event of the Russell Index reconstitution that takes place on June 24th. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald talks to Indrani De, LSEG’s Head of Global Investment Research, about the outlook for credit and the economy, including the impact that higher oil prices will have on growth. Indrani highlights that the credit markets are not yet showing any signs of stress, having only reached levels that were achieved prior to the pandemic. Are they a lagging indicator or are recession fears overblown? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent break out in crude oil prices and the ongoing squeeze in agricultural products. US inflation may have peaked in H1, but that doesn’t mean it will quickly drop back to ‘normal’ levels. In the Chatter section, Roger Hirst talks to LSEG’s Director of European Gas Research, Wayne Bryan, about the structural issues in Europe’s energy market that could persist for a number of years. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the current level of stock market volatility, which is high, but not excessive. Most major market lows are telegraphed by a surge in volatility, but should we expect that again this time? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Jamie McDonald looks at the dramatic moves in agricultural commodities as a result of various export bans, the most recent coming out of India. Will similar announcements from China, Serbia, and Indonesia spark a cascading response from other exporters and risk further inflationary pressures? With policymakers squarely focused on taming inflation, investors might wish to reconsider their traditional asset allocations. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent weakness across stocks and bonds. If retail investors are buying the dips and institutions have liquidated few of their positions, then who is behind this weakness? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Garett Lim speaks to Sabrina Bailey, London Stock Exchange’s Global Head of Wealth, to discuss the secular trends that are driving rapid change in the wealth management industry, and how technology is helping Asia to drive ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the dramatic move in the Chinese Yuan that has sparked a response from the People's Bank of China. Is their latest attempt to stabilize the currency a signal that troubles in China are far greater than investors appreciate? Between Covid lockdowns, a deteriorating economy and policy makers' attempts to support the economy, the recent developments in China have introduced a new set of factors to be considered by the US Federal Reserve. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the dramatic move in the Japanese Yen that is testing some key levels. Will the Bank of Japan keep a cap on yields and let the currency go? Even the Euro is testing a multi decade uptrend. A strong dollar may not be your base case, but you need to be aware of its potential and the implications that has. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week LSEG’s Garett Lim talks to Helena Fung, LSEG’s Head of Sustainable Finance in the APAC region. They discuss the positive steps that Asia’s corporates have taken toward embracing the reporting criteria and ESG standards that have been set out by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure. To accelerate the transition from here, however, will require co-ordination across the financial landscape of investors, banks, service providers and regulators. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision's Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at recent stock market rotations and whether ESG strategies might continue to suffer at the hands of surging commodity demand. Some indicators are warning of a potential slowdown which could have wide-ranging implications for both value and growth sectors. In the Chatter, Cornelia Andersson of LSEG discusses the global M&A landscape and whether the recent pullback in ESG strategies has dented institutional demand for sustainable investing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the onset of the rate hiking cycle and the additional re-pricing that has taken place since the first hike. Yield curves are inverting, but should we follow the usual sequencing of the last 30 years? In the Chatter, Kiran Ganesh of UBS Wealth Management outlines the prospects for rates and a few diversification strategies. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Garett Lim uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at a number of indicators that suggest that China may be embarking on an era of more sustainable growth. Last year proved to be a challenging one for Chinese equities, with growth concerns around Common Prosperity weighing on investor sentiment. The all-important property and technology sectors were hit, with the further threat of state intervention looming over the latter. But are we beginning to see signs of an economic transformation towards more sustainable growth in 2022? That’s The Big Conversation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at a growing number of indicators that suggest a potential paradigm shift in commodity prices might already be impacting consumer behaviour. Applying the familiar “FAANG” moniker to commodities, we look at the dynamics of Fuels, Aerogspace, Agriculture, Nuclear and Gold as “FAANG 2.0”. We highlight the potential implications for not only consumers but also investor portfolios, as the shift in commodity prices ripple through global financial markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the surge in commodity prices and the flattening yield curve, both of which have historically been precursors to recession. What can policy makers do and is a recession now inevitable? The Chatter looks at how policy makers, who were looking to tighten, will now respond to the inflation that is difficult to control with interest rates. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Garett Lim uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at a growing number of indicators which suggest that China could be about to see a return to growth. As many of the world’s major central banks battle to bring inflation under control by hiking rates, China’s dovish policy pivot presents an intriguing divergence. We highlight the potential implications for not only investors in Asia, but also global markets, as the effects of China’s credit cycle ripple through commodities and developed economies. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at a growing number of lead indicators that suggest policymakers may be behind the curve on inflation. As the Fed continues to tell us that they are “data dependent”, the growing question is whether they are looking at the right indicators. With markets becoming increasingly volatile in recent weeks, we identify some of the reasons for the growing unease amongst investors by looking at competing signals coming from the business cycle and inflation data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the rapid repricing of interest rate expectations. The US is expecting around six hikes and even the ECB is being priced at two. Has the hiking hysteria now reached a peak? In the Chatter, we look at developments in the European carbon market. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week LSEG’s Garett Lim talks to Steve Brice, CIO of Standard Chartered Bank Wealth Management, about US interest rate expectations, the outlook for Chinese stocks and the impact of oil on Asia’s economies. Inflation is expected to peak soon but remain elevated throughout the year. Gold has been struggling but it still has a key role to play in portfolio diversification. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week, Real Vision’s Jamie McDonald examines how Fed policy makers awill djust the course of their signaled tightening cycle if equity weakness continues. Or, in other words, what is the strike of the fabled fed put? At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed surprised many by holding strong on hawkish policy and so investors learned that the Fed Put isn’t struck at a measly 10% down from the highs. So this begs the question: how low do markets have to go before the Fed begins to react, and with inflation now public enemy number one, is the equity market really where investors should be looking anyway? With that question in mind, McDonald highlights the Refinitiv data investors need to be watching to help determine whether the Fed is indeed hiking into a growth slowdown.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the similarities of the post-expiry bounce this week and the market lows that appeared on the first trading day after a major expiry in 2018 and 2020. Whilst there are many common features, the policy stance of the Fed and the involvement of retail investors are two potentially decisive differences between then and now. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the state of the economy as we approach the US tightening cycle. Whilst many indicators are still elevated, some have started to roll over. Over the last decade, the end of QE has often coincided with a peak in bond yields. Is the same about to happen again? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the potential market response when the Fed finally ends QE. Bond yields and growth expectations have historically fallen after QE has ended. Should it be different this time? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at bond yields and the US dollar. Rising yields are being interpreted as a positive repricing of growth, but this close to the beginning of a new year, they could be nothing more than rebalancing trades. A tighter Fed is also expected to boost the US dollar and yields, but price action over the last 18 months suggest that the opposite may be the outcome. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at 10 charts that map out some of the key determinants for portfolio performance in 2022. Inflation might be key, but it’s the policy response and the impact on yields that will lead the way for stocks. Will investors get the direction of the dollar right, after it wrong footed the market at the beginning of 2021? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the two biggest actors on the global stage. Both are at an inflection point. The US might pivot toward tighter policy, whilst China might roll back some of its tighter regulation. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the pivot by Powell toward a policy that looks to reign in price, rather than support growth. This has significant implications for many of the consensus trades for 2022, which were based upon a loose policy remaining in place for much of next year. The Chatter reviews the outlook for the types of policy tightening in 2022 and beyond. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Max Wiethe breaks down the equity and commodity market’s reactions to the discovery of the new Omicron variant of COVID. Equity volatility spiked late last week and has remained elevated this week as bipolar markets oscilate between sharp sell-offs and rallies. As well, similar moves are playing out from the initial COVID outbreak in 2020 like energy commodities and travel stocks falling sharply. However, some things are very different this time around with work from home darlings like Zoom not seeing the same love as last time and much different landscape for central bank policy with supply chain driven inflation at much higher levels. In The Chatter segment, Roger Hirst speaks with Refinitiv’s Darrenth Hawken about how the infrastructure megatheme is evolving, focusing on the balance between encouraging sustainable infrastructure for the future while also giving enough attention legacy infrastructure and technologies that are still vital to powering the economy through the energy transition. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent rally in the dollar, what’s behind it and whether it’s getting to levels which start to hurt risk assets. Emerging Market equity, one of the consensus trades for 2021, has failed to perform this year. Will the pain spread out to other assets? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the ongoing divergence between inflation and risk assets, especially bond yields and the impact that this has had on the stock market. Will we finally see yields rise and value stocks outperform, or is the dollar starting one of those runs higher that can undermine risk assets? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at positive seasonality for stocks into year end and the emerging risks that might make this a bumpy ride. Retail investors have changed the nature of equity markets over the last year and this could fuel big moves in both directions. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the data behind the inflation headlines that looks robust but is starting to head in the wrong direction. Wages are rising at a slower pace than prices, whilst many goods are no longer affordable. Demand could become severely restricted if policy makers tighten too early. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Max Wiethe breaks down the data pointing to a global energy crisis. The prices of energy commodiites like oil, natural gas and coal are skyrocketing, but it isn’t because the global economy and demand have returned to prepandemic levels, in fact, it is supply shortages and lack of production that are driving these price increases. Wiethe examines these dynamics, breaking down the markets for each of the energy commodities, and highlights what this means for their equities, consumers, inflation, and potential Fed policy outcomes. In “The Chatter” section Jim Mitchel, head of Refinitiv’s Americas oil analysts, discusses why this global energy crisis is arguably an “ideology crisis” and why this means we could see all-time record prices for oil in 2022. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the repricing of interest rate risk that is taking place at the front end of yield curves. Investors are throwing in the towel on the transient inflation narrative and yields have shot up. Yield curves should flatten, but there is also risk of a VAR shock at the back end of the curve that is not currently being factored in. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the implications of higher energy prices on the prospects for growth. Costs are rising and margins are under pressure, whilst demand remains weak. If bond yields continue to rise, will financial assets also come under pressure? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the stagflation that many people feel is stalking the economy, from fuel price surges to empty shelves at supermarkets. Is this a rerun of the 1970’s? There is a quantum of solace in that the similarities stop with the surge in prices. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent surge in bond yields and wobbles in the stock market. Concerns about inflation are now turning to stagflation, especially in Europe where energy prices are soaring. Cyclical growth stocks are suffering, but can yields really reach levels that undermine the market? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at issues surrounding China Evergrande, a leveraged conglomerate that includes property development and banking amongst its operations. Expectations of a default have been running high, but its issues……… and the policy response…… go deep into the transition that China is undertaking. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the consensus amongst equity strategists for a 10% to 20% correction in the US stock market. Most market professionals expect a 5% to 10% correction. But is this now too much of a consensus to actually come true? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the recent big miss from the Non-Farm Payrolls and compare this to some of the other jobs data which suggest there is a massive shortfall in available workers. But are these bottlenecks obscuring the bigger picture in which the outlook for jobs continues to deteriorate? The participation rate continues to subside, and this has been pulling down bond yields. Did the economy ever recover from the previous shock in 2008? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst has a conversation with Andrea Zazzarelli, Chief Investment Strategist at Fathom Consulting, about whether the economy and market have entered a new cycler after the COVID recession, or whether policy makers have supercharged the previous one. Using Refinitiv’s best-in-class data, they look at the before and after growth trajectory and the impact of fiscal policy, as they answer a question from one of last week’s viewers. The direction of inflation is probably key to understanding if this is a new cycle, or the old one on steroids. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the signs that a mid-cycle slowdown is already underway. Small caps continue to underperform and there are more signs that the reflation trade is under pressure. Emerging markets look particularly vulnerable on a relative basis because they didn’t reap the usual rewards of the cyclical upturn. The German DAX may also underwhelm versus the US equity market, where rotations may see significant price action at the sector level, but this should balance out for the broader market.
The Chatter Cornelia Andersson, Head of M&A and Capital Raising at Refinitiv, discusses the record volumes in the M&A space, the key role that private equity has played in this process and the potential for these firms to be priced out as corporate activity starts to pick up. The outlook for the rest of the year is for the strong start to continue, with the tech sector leading the way.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2
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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the soft macro data coming out of China that could be a prelude to a decline in world growth. With many investors still positioned for reflation, the impact from China could wrong foot many investors. Bond yields have been flagging weaker growth for a few months and a break higher by the dollar could create a significant headwind for reflation assets. The Chatter The carbon emission markets continue to grow. China is about to launch its trading facility that will eventually grow into the world’s largest carbon market. Refinitiv’s Power and Carbon Senior Analyst, Yuan Li, outlines how this is expected to develop over the next decade. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the unusual activity taking place under the hood of the equity market. Some of this has never been seen before, but should we care, if central banks have our backs? Recent history highlights the risk of air pockets, but are put options now too expensive?
The Big Questions In this new section, Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to answer some of the recent questions from viewers about how central bank balance sheets are impacting the Euro and what are the implications for EM bonds resulting from a stronger US dollar or higher US yields.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the recent strength in the US dollar and the flattening of the US yield curve. Could this be an inflection point for the reflation trade or has the market overreacted to a few slightly hawkish comments at the recent FOMC? If the dollar breaks some key levels, then the rally could turn into an unexpected rout. The Chatter In this week’s Chatter, Jeoff Hall, Managing Economist at Refinitiv, discusses the outlook for US employment and the recent data conundrum, where there are signs of both extreme slack and extreme tightness. Perhaps the biggest concern from the FOMC is that one of the historically dovish members has turned far more hawkish and this could help sway other members. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to review the two conundrums at the heart of the inflation debate: lower yields and low levels of employment despite huge demand for jobs. CPI data made a new multi decade high and yet bond yields rolled over. Is the demand for jobs reflecting a lack of suitable employees or is it an opportunistic attempt to hire labor at a low cost? Both the transient and persistent inflation camps have valid arguments, it may just be another case of timing. The Chatter In this week’s Chatter, Catherine Yoshimoto - Director, Product Management – FTSE Russell (an LSEG business) runs through one of the major liquidity events for the market, the reconstitution of the FTSE Russell indices such as the Russell 1000 and 2000. This event impacts a large number of stocks via additions and deletions from the various indices and every investor should be aware of which stocks are impacted. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the ongoing surge in commodity prices and the massive miss in the employment data. Are these both going to have an impact on earnings and increase the risks for the stock market? Some investors have been looking for cheap hedges to protect against any sudden air-pockets. Inflation metrics are picking up and that’s putting pressure on real yields, helping to boost the prospects for gold.
The Chatter In this week’s Chatter, Saida Litosh outlines the demand for gold from retail, who are investing in physical gold such as jewelry, whilst institutions have been liquidating ETF positions as they flip into reflation trades. Central banks have reduced their purchases because they have had to increase their fiscal expenditure. These trends are likely to persist, though the backdrop remains very supportive for precious metals.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the two themes which are dominating market talk: the surge in commodity prices and the rise in the use of margin debt to fuel the US equity rally. Should we be concerned about these developments? See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 The Chatter Bruce Alway, Refinitiv’s Director of Metals Research, looks at the supply and demand factors that have been driving the rise in copper prices. There is a confluence of factors that are creating a structural shift in this sector which suggests that higher copper prices could outlast the broad-based rise in commodities. Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the likelihood of inflation data taking off from here as we start to see the impact of base effects from last year’s pandemic bust. Economists are upping the ante with bolder and bolder forecasts for growth, but these impacts may be very short lived. The dollar and yields may be self-correcting, and China’s restocking may now be complete. LSEG’s Head of Investment Research EMEA, Marlies Van Boven discusses the rise of smart beta strategies, which are becoming an increasingly important part of the investment landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the risks that excess leverage can pose for the financial system. Was the recent demise of a family office an isolated incident or the tip of the iceberg and are there any market parallels in recent history? In this week's Chatter, Refinitiv’s Head of Banking and Capital Markets, Cornelia Andersson, reviews the surge in M&A volumes at the end of last year that has spilled over into the first quarter of 2021.
Get an exclusive view into the minds of 460 deal makers with our annual Deal Makers Sentiment Survey 2021 findings: https://refini.tv/3cQUk8f
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the cracks that have been appearing across the financial landscape after only a small bounce in the US dollar. Many of these issues will be dismissed as one-off events, unconnected by geography or asset. But they could all stem from cheap and abundant dollar liquidity that is showing increasing signs of sensitivity to a small reversal in the fortunes of the dollar. Turkey and Brazil have recently shown their vulnerabilities and the problems of leverage within a family office all represent risks that are lurking under the bonnet. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the potential repercussions from the Fed’s dovish turn at the March FOMC. Inflation is one of the primary concerns of the market at this moment, but will an aggressively loose stance again divert capital from more productive means? Distortions of capital have led to price distortions in the market. In this week’s Chatter we talk to Refinitiv economist Oliver Dancel-Fiszer about the impact that the Fed’s dovish turn could have on yields, inflation, and growth.
See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Subscribe now for more videos like this one: https://rvtv.io/2OW3mqu Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: https://rvtv.io/membership Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at China’s key role within the reflation narrative and how it’s been driving some commodity prices higher. Is this a sustainable move or was this a stop gap effort to stimulate supply in response to the pandemic? What now happens to all those finished goods and will China rotate back to domestic consumption? This could wrong foot the reflation trade.
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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the success of the reflation trade and how higher equity prices are diverting capital from the real economy, higher commodities are a threat to margins and higher real yields could be a headwind for risk assets. The higher equities go, the worse it is for economic growth. Perhaps the Fed put on stocks is lower down than most people expect? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the underperformance of traditional energy sectors which are lagging the reflation trade. Miners and banks have all outperformed. Is it the turn for energy stocks to take-off? Even taking into account the structural headwinds from regulation and the diversion of capital to renewable energy sources, this underperformance looks extreme. Or perhaps it is the miners that are due a pullback?
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This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the impact of inflation and higher yields on risk assets such as tech stocks and to ask if inflation can take hold in the US if the rest of the world is experiencing deflation. Europe and China have economic models that don’t easily fit the reflation narrative. If inflation appears, could the US be going it alone? In the Chatter, Refinitiv’s Jharonne Martis discusses a key element for future demand – the health of the US consumer sector. See the full series and access expert data-driven insights and news from Refinitiv: https://refini.tv/2Tq42o2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv’s best-in-class data to look at the surge in single stock equity volumes which is breaking records again in early 2021. There was a distinct pattern of volatility into three of last year’s four major expiries and we should be prepared for similar activity into March. Retail investors are dominating the landscape, with volumes exploding on short dated, small sized and out of the money call options. Investors should be prepared for an equity market dynamic that can create air pockets in both directions. Recorded on Jan 26, 2021.
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Introduction to The Big Conversation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices