Capital Economics Weekly Briefing: Recent Episodes
Capital Economics
Capital Economics, a world leading provider of macroeconomic insight, presents The Weekly Briefing – the show with all you need to know about what's happening in the global economy and markets. From the Fed's next move to China's slowdown to the global housing bust, each week, our team of economists take apart the big economic and market stories and highlight the issues that investors should be paying more attention to.
As summer holidays draw to a close attention is quickly turning to September’s big central bank decisions. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and the team have been sifting through weeks of data from the US, euro-zone and UK to assess what the Fed, ECB and Bank of England are going to do when they sit down to decide their next moves on rates. He tells David Wilder what to expect from these meetings, but also what central bankers mean when they keep telling the press that intend to stay the course on policy tightening.
Neil also talks about Ernie Bot, the new Chinese AI-powered chatbot, and what its release signals about the global race to dominate in this emerging General Purpose Technology.
Plus, is policy paralysis over in Beijing? Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks about what’s in the latest stimulus announcement from the Chinese government and whether it’s enough to turn around China’s flagging economy.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing walks through the summer’s big market themes to discuss the growth outlook, the China slowdown scares and whether the hype around AI is justified. Along the way, he gives his take on the latest PMI readings, explains the problem with China stimulus hopes and previews our forthcoming work on the impact of artificial intelligence on the global economy and markets.
Plus, Tom Mathews, a senior economist on our Markets team, talks about what the enthusiasm around AI is doing to equities valuations now as he talks about that blowout Q2 earnings report from Nvidia. He also discusses why the market has come off the boil in recent weeks, including the rise in bond yields and shifts in the macroeconomic narrative.
Government bond yields have been hitting multi-year highs even though data show inflation in retreat and central bankers are preparing to down tools – if they haven’t already. Why the disconnect? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about what’s been happening in the bond market, whether this is why some EMs have been struggling, and what Jerome Powell might say at Jackson Hole this week.
Plus, Global Economist Ariane Curtis has just completed work on the outlook for fiscal policy in developed markets. She talks to Senior Global Economist Simon MacAdam about why policy is likely to remain loose and why this complicates the task of central banks to get inflation under control.
And, amid growing fears about China’s economic and financial risks, the team held an online briefing to give clients a chance to ask about everything from where the renminbi is going to local government debt to whether China is turning into Japan. Listen to an exclusive clip from that briefing with Neil, China Economics head Julian Evans-Pritchard and Senior Global Markets Economist Thomas Mathews.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
While China’s latest price reports have markets worrying about deflation, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing thinks the real issue is what’s happening in core inflation against a backdrop of a struggling economy. He also reviews the “immaculate” July CPI report from the US and what means for the Fed and previews the UK CPI report for July due this coming Wednesday.
Plus, Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities Economist, talks about a raft of supply pinches facing commodities markets, from the collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative to Indian food protectionism to OPEC+ production cuts.
Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.
Economies aren’t doing what Economics 101 says they should be doing, with disinflationary evidence piling up, even as labour markets remain in relatively good shape. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about the sell-off in the bond market, potential paths to a soft landing, and the key messages from the July non-farm payrolls report. He also explains what an announcement from AMD says about artificial intelligence in a world of economic fracturing.
Plus, Kimberley Sperrfechter and William Jackson discuss the risks around the upcoming presidential primary in Argentina.
Plus, Julian Evans-Pritchard introduces our worrying new estimate for China’s economic trend growth rate and explains what that says about the underwhelming post-COVID recovery.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this podcast.
It was one of those turning points in the global economy which deserved more attention: Chinese passenger car exports exceeded Japan’s this past May, powered by the country’s rapidly-expanding electric vehicle sector.
It’s a marker of China’s increasing dominance in this emerging industry, and another sign of Japan’s struggles to make more headway, despite its early forays into alternative fuel vehicles. But secure is China’s EV dominance, how big a threat are its EVs to the likes of Toyota, and will a steady flow of EV exports trigger a regulatory backlash?
Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, and Marcel Thieliant, who leads our Japan coverage, discuss the Chinese EV challenge and what it means for Japan’s auto industry in this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. During their conversation, Julian and Marcel cut through the hype to address the key issues around the rise of China’s EV industry, including:
· How Beijing nurtured a globally-dominant EV industry;
· The growing risk of Western protectionism against Chinese EVs;
· How Japan’s car makers lost their lead in alternative fuel vehicles.
Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.
The euro-zone may be mired in recession, but that won’t stop the ECB from raising rates again this coming week in order to get inflation – a “greedy beast”, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – under control.
Deputy Chief Eurozone Economist Jack Allen-Reynolds tells David Wilder why another 25 basis point hikes is a done deal for this Thursday, but also why the ECB could take rates up to 4% from 3.5% now and keep them there – and what that means for an already-faltering European economy.
Plus, Chief Commodities Economist Caroline Bain and Climate Economics head David Oxley discuss some of the macro, market and policy risks around the return of El Niño.
And, in an exclusive clip from our UK ‘Drop-In’ about the June CPI report, Paul Dales, Ruth Gregory, Jonas Goltermann and Ashley Webb tell clients why we’ve raised our Bank Rate forecast, what recession will mean for the inflation outlook and what lies ahead for the Gilt market.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
Markets cheered the US June inflation report, with equities rising and yields falling on solid evidence that the forces that drove core inflation to a four-decade high are in retreat. But is the crisis really over? How will the Fed respond in July and subsequent meetings? And what does the US experience say about the UK and European outlooks?
In this week’s episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about this latest shift in the US inflation narrative and the implications for policy. Neil also previews the coming week’s UK inflation report and discusses the risks to the economic outlook posed by El Niño.
Plus, following Wagner Group leader Yezgeny Prigozhin’s dramatic failed rebellion last month, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach discusses his major new report about Russia’s precarious economy. Liam explains the tricky task that the Putin regime now faces in maintaining macro stability at the same time as prosecuting the war on Ukraine, including the economic pressures that could force the government to seek a way out of the conflict.
Click here to explore the analysis and events referenced in this episode.
We've just published our Q3 Outlook reports for the global economy and markets. They tell a fairly grim near-term story of inflation, recession and weaker equities prices. But there's nuance within that narrative, including emerging markets outperformance and a much, much brighter outlook for stocks beyond 2023.
Ariane Curtis and Tom Mathews speak to David Wilder about the key takeaways from their reports ahead of client briefings this coming week.
Plus, Neil Shearing explains why the bond market has been freaking out this week, why inflation is taking so long to respond to its monetary medicine and introduces our major new research project coming this September.
Click here to explore the events and analysis referenced in this episode.
Accusations of ‘greedflation’ are flying thick and fast, fuelling public anger over rising prices, putting executives on the defensive and pressuring politicians to do something. But are companies really taking advantage of inflation’s return to maximise profits? Simon MacAdam, a Senior Economist on our Global Economics team, has just completed in-depth analysis into the ‘greedflation’ question and talks to David Wilder about his findings – including why the current debate is fundamentally flawed but also just how much corporate pricing behaviour has inflamed the inflation situation.
Plus, what happens in Sintra doesn’t stay in Sintra. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why central bankers sounded so hawkish in their comments to the ECB forum at the Portuguese resort town. He also reviews the latest inflation data and addresses the Bank for International Settlement’s call for fiscal policy to join the fight to get price pressures under control.
Click here to explore the analysis referenced in this episode.
After that shock CPI report and the Bank of England’s aggressive response, Neil Shearing discusses whether the UK is a high inflation-slow growth outlier. Along with his survey of the latest advanced economy data, the Capital Economics Group Chief Economist also talks about what EM central banks have been doing right.
And he explains why, despite signs of improvement, fundamental strains in US-China relations will continue to drive the fracturing of the global economy.
Plus, in an exclusive clip from our online client briefing following the Bank of England’s June meeting, our UK, Housing and Financial Markets economists answer client questions about the impact of another ratcheting up of Bank Rate on everything from household finances to house prices to the gilt market.
Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.
In this special episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, our team of property economists explain how commercial and housing markets are faring in a world of rapid and large increases in interest rates.
Taking in everything from the crisis in the US banking system to panic around UK inflation, the team discuss what’s been happening on both sides of the Atlantic and where they think markets are going.
- Chief Property Economist Andrew Burrell revisits our forecasts going to into 2023 to discuss whether markets are passed the worst;
- Andrew Wishart, the head of our UK Housing service, explains what the recent surge in UK mortgage rates means for transactions and prices;
- Kiran Raichura, our Deputy Chief Property Economist, and Senior Property Economist Matthew Pointon discuss the similarities and differences between the US and UK commercial markets, including the office outlook in both.
Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.
China data for May fell short of expectations and Capital Economics clients want to know what the government’s going to do about it. Our China Drop-In was one of two online briefings we held for them last week, along with our post-Fed, post-ECB, pre-Bank of England briefing. In this special episode, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing tackles some of the most commonly-asked questions during those sessions, including:
- What will Chinese stimulus look like?
- Why is the German economy in such a dire state?
- Could the Bank of England signal a pause after a June rate hike?
Plus, have Turkey and Nigeria come in from the cold? Post-election signals in both countries indicate their presidents are willing to break with the market-unfriendly policies that they’ve previously supported – but is this the real deal? Jason Tuvey and Liam Peach from our EM team talk about the lira and naira’s recent sharp devaluations, the path back to “normal” policy-settings, and whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Bola Tinubu are likely to stay the course.
Click here to view recordings of the Drop-Ins and the analysis referenced in this episode.
These are not normal economic times and that makes the job of policymakers – and economists – that much harder. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about why this cycle is unlike any other, but also why it's likely to end in recession.
Plus, the headline were all about LIV Golf, the PGA Tour and Karim Benzema, but the other big Saudi Arabia story this week was the oil production cut that barely raised a peep in the market. Bill Weatherburn talks about the price outlook and the OPEC+ dynamics that are driving decision-making, while James Swanston explains why he's just slashed his Saudi growth forecast, the chances of more high profile spending in sports and what Antony Blinken's trip to Riyadh signifies.
Click here to read the analysis referenced in this episode.
China's zero-COVID policy is under mounting strain as the economy reels and public anger grows. The government is responding but will it be enough to bring relief to China's economic outlook and its beleaguered public? And what do record infection numbers and the threat of more lockdowns mean for the global economy? On 29th November, economists from our China, Global, Commodities and Markets teams held a special online briefing with clients to take questions and explain what the latest developments mean for everything from vaccination rates to global oil demand to the renminbi. In this special edition of The Weekly Briefing, you can hear the 25-minute discussion between Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams, Senior Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann and Commodities Economist Ed Gardner.
Recent data releases suggest the global economy is holding up better than anticipated by gloomy forecasts (including ours). But it's far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why there's still appetite among central banks to keep raising rates, and why recessions still loom in advanced economies. Plus, EM sovereign debt may be in better shape than in the past, but households and corporate borrowing has surged and they now face a sharp rise in debt service costs – are they going to be able to cope? Liam Peach and Shilan Shah from our EM team discusses which economies are most vulnerable.
This year’s has been a dollar rally for the ages, but recent weeks have seen the currency come under pressure. That’s fuelling talk that the greenback is finally past the peak with only downside ahead. Jonas Goltermann and Jonathan Petersen from our FX Markets team aren’t convinced and in this episode they talk about the drivers of dollar strength this year and what – if anything – has changed of late. Plus, fresh from client meetings in New York and Toronto, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives our take on the latest activity data and what they mean for the policy outlook and whether Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement means the UK government has finally made its peace with markets.
Despite the rumours, the Chinese government isn't about to abandon zero-COVID. Although new measures to tweak the rules raise hopes of a near-term end to the draconian policy, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard explain the many difficulties involved in doing so – including the fact that the economy would likely suffer, rather than get a boost, from scrapping it. Plus, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses the challenges central bankers face at this stage of the monetary tightening cycle, not least in understanding inflation dynamics and how far rates will have to rise accordingly.
A slew of central bank decisions this week highlighted a range of policy dilemmas at this stage of the tightening cycle, from the impact of higher rates on teetering housing markets to the threat that even hints of a slower pace of hikes triggers a market stampede back into risky assets. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the outcomes of the meetings to explain how policymakers are coping with the challenge. Plus, as COP27 kicks off in Sharm El Sheikh, David Oxley, the head of our new Climate Economics coverage, explains why multilateral efforts such as these aren't the answer to containing the rise in global temperatures.
Central bankers are driving the global economy into its steepest downturn in four decades, barring the GFC and the pandemic. But which economies will be hardest hit and how will the onset of recession change the inflation-monetary tightening calculus? David Wilder speaks to Jennifer McKeown, the head of our Global Economics coverage, about our just-published Q4 Global Economic Outlook and asks her why, even with such gloomy forecasts, the risks are skewed to the downside. Also this week, what does monetary policymaking look like each side of the US-Canadian border? Stephen Brown, our Canada Economics lead, talks to Senior US Economist Michael Pearce about the Fed and the Bank of Canada.