The Curiosity Chronicle: Recent Episodes
Sahil Bloom
Dr. Peter Attia uses a framework with his patients called the Centenarian Decathlon to organize physical aspirations for life’s later years. The idea is to choose 10 physical tasks the person wants to be able to do at 100 and then reverse engineer the necessary actions in the present to achieve that future.
Using a similar exercise to look at the broader scope of your life can be very helpful. What does your ideal life look like at age 80? Who are you with? What are you doing? How do you feel? Where are you?
To create that future, what are the necessary actions in the present? What actions, habits, and behaviors do you need to adopt today to create that end?
Last week, I spent three days with a group of successful entrepreneurs on a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. I left the event with a new energy to grow and a lot of interesting, non-obvious learnings. This piece shares my 10 key learnings from the event.
The learnings: (1) Freedom is the real goal, (2) Environment is everything, (3) Insecurity is natural, (4) Always know the game you're playing, (5) Create value with no expectation, (6) Owned distribution is a cheat code, (7) Success isn't always loud, (8) No one has it all figured out, (9) Entrepreneurial loneliness is a real problem, and (10) Solve the problem by seeing it differently.
My Rule for Life: Find the room where it happens. Get in that room. Once you're in it, help others get there.
Question: What am I avoiding because it's too painful to address?
Framework: Fundamental Attribution Error.
While we all want to live in a state of low stress, during certain moments, we need to learn to optimize our stress response—we need to learn to harness stress to our benefit rather than allowing it to derail us.
The Yerkes-Dodson Law says that stress and performance are positively correlated, but only up to a certain point, after which more stress reduces performance.
3 strategies for mastering stress: (1) Reframe threat into challenge; (2) Use science-backed breathing techniques to pull back from the edge; and (3) Place yourself in controlled stressful environments to train your stress response.
Question: If you woke up three years from now and were living your ideal life, what were the three things you did to get you there?
Framework: The Pyrrhic Victory.
Theory: Our belief in our ability to create our own luck exposes us to more good fortune (or at least allows us to see the good fortune amidst a sea of bad).
In an early 2000s study, Dr. Richard Wiseman found that lucky people came across "chance" opportunities, while the unlucky people seemed to miss them. Both groups had equal access to these opportunities, but the lucky group saw what the unlucky group tended to miss.
Our daily thoughts, behaviors, and actions serve to expand or contract our luck surface area, which in turn determines our experience as a lucky or unlucky person.
The Luck Razor: When choosing between two paths, always choose the path that has a larger luck surface area.
Question: Do I actually need more information, or do I simply need to act on the information I already have?
Framework: The Identity-Action Grid
I recently got a message from a 22-year-old reader asking for career advice. Career advice is a topic area that I have always found interesting, probably because I feel it so often misses the mark. I take this as a challenge.
I sat down and synthesized the advice I would have wanted to receive early in my career (or what I would tell my own son if he were just starting out).
The 7 pieces of career advice everyone needs to hear: (1) Swallow the frog, (2) Do the old fashioned things well, (3) Work hard first and smart later, (4) Build storytelling skills, (5) Build a rep for figuring it out, (6) Show up early and stay late, and (7) Dive through cracked doors.
The Wall Street Journal recently released a visual breaking down how people spend their time in retirement. The visual shows that the majority of a retiree's time is spent on sleeping, relaxing and leisure, and watching television.
Most of us create this beautiful image of what retirement will look like, but the reality is (likely) much different. Why? Well, the image we create is based on who we are today, while the reality will be based on who we are at retirement age.
The traditional concept of retirement is grounded in a foundational assumption that there should be a "before and after" within your life. I would propose a reframe: The goal is to design a life that you don't need to retire from.
David Brooks first proposed a distinction between Résumé Virtues and Eulogy Virtues. Résumé Virtues are the things you put on your resume. Eulogy Virtues are the things people talk about at your funeral.
What I've resolved: We can build both, but only by focusing on the correct directionality. A purposeful focus on Eulogy Virtues will build Résumé Virtues, but a focus on Résumé Virtues will not build Eulogy Virtues.
If there's one thing I learned last week, it's that life is so very fragile. But no matter how fragile it is, each day, we have a choice of how to live it. Each day is a fresh start, a fresh choice to make. How will you choose to live?
The Parable of the Two Arrows: "In life, we cannot always control the first arrow. However, the second arrow is our reaction to the first. The second arrow is optional."
Victor Frankl, the Austrian philosopher and Holocaust survivor renowned for his contributions to existential psychology, has a brilliant framing for this: "Between stimulus and response, there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response."
To create the space and move forward after a negative event: Pause, Reset, and Choose.
I was recently struck by a realization: The people I read books about are very rarely the people I would ever want to trade lives with. Why? The price of their success was not one I would be willing to pay.
There is a price tag for anything you want to achieve in life. Every single thing you want is an output that requires certain inputs to buy or earn. There's a "list price" (actual, direct price to pay for the thing you want) and a "real price" (List Price, plus the hidden, indirect price in the form of the tradeoffs and opportunity cost of the pursuit).
What I've learned: There are many things in life that look like a great deal based on the List Price, but a ripoff based on the Real Price.
Questions to ask: What is the List Price of the thing you want? What is the Real Price of the thing you want? Are you willing to pay that Real Price?
Question: If I repeated this day for 100 days, would my life be better or worse?
Framework: The 5 Second Rule.
Welcome to the second half of 2023. If you've kept up your New Year's resolutions and feel on track, great! If not, that's ok, because even if the best time to start was 6 months ago, the second best time is today.
Today, I'd like to share a distillation of my 10 favorite ideas from the 52 newsletters I've written so far this year.
The ideas covered: Spotlight Effect, 1-1-1 Method, Eisenhower Matrix, Surfer Mentality, Feynman Technique, 4 Types of Luck, Trap of the Extraordinary, Character Invention, Think Day, and Time Billionaire.
A mental model is a way to think about the world. It is a tool—a lens through which you can simplify, evaluate, and make decisions in real time as you walk through life.
When faced with any key decision, you effectively choose one of two potential characters: Investor or Borrower. The Investor is a long-term thinker who makes an investment to delay gratification, while the Borrower is a short-term thinker who takes out a loan to experience pleasure now.
Investments compound positively and the future self cashes in on the rewards. Loans accrue interest negatively and the future self is stuck with the bill.
This is the first in a new series of shorts that will cover one question and one framework to get you thinking heading into the weekend.
Question: What are the elements of your ideal life at 80-years-old?
Framework: Self-Handicapping (and how to avoid it).
What have you changed your mind on recently? Egocentric Bias says that we convince ourselves of the accuracy of our own personal perspective—that we view ourselves as unimpeachable—and therefore struggle to acknowledge any perspectives or data that may alter our understanding of the world.
The parable of The Blind Men and The Elephant tells the story of six blind men who examine one part of an elephant and each come to very different conclusions on what an elephant is. They are all partly right, but also all entirely wrong.
The information you have about the world represents a tiny fraction of the information available, yet you use it to form a view of how the world works.
Remember the Blind Men Razor: "Never attribute to malice, ignorance, or stupidity that which can be adequately explained by different information."
What have you changed your mind on recently? Egocentric Bias says that we convince ourselves of the accuracy of our own personal perspective—that we view ourselves as unimpeachable—and therefore struggle to acknowledge any perspectives or data that may alter our understanding of the world.
The parable of The Blind Men and The Elephant tells the story of six blind men who examine one part of an elephant and each come to very different conclusions on what an elephant is. They are all partly right, but also all entirely wrong.
The information you have about the world represents a tiny fraction of the information available, yet you use it to form a view of how the world works.
Remember the Blind Men Razor: "Never attribute to malice, ignorance, or stupidity that which can be adequately explained by different information."
Confession: I am a nervous public speaker. But confident public speaking is a critical skill, so we need a set of strategies to increase our confidence and perform as the best version of ourselves.
Prep Strategies: (1) Study the best speakers and learn from them, (2) Create a clear storytelling structure, and (3) Build "lego blocks" but avoid rote memorization.
Pre-Stage Strategies: (1) Address the Spotlight Effect and ask "so what?" about your worst fears, (2) Get into character and turn on the best version of yourself, and (3) Eliminate stress with a simple breathing technique.
Delivery Strategies: (1) Cut the tension in the crowd at the outset, (2) Use big, broad gestures and avoid touching your pockets or torso, and (3) Move with purposeful, slow steps.
Today at a Glance:
- The Learning Pyramid indicates that teaching is a much more effective driver of retention than reading or lecture. The goal should be to move rapidly to teaching in order to cement new learning.
- Richard Feynman developed a learning framework grounded in teaching and iteration that was highly effective for him during his illustrious academic career.
- The Three-Step Learning Model: (1) Read & Research to build a base, (2) Teach to cement learnings and highlight knowledge gaps, and (3) Assess & Iterate to fill the gaps.
Today at a Glance:
- Humans have a tendency to manufacture complexity. We make progress in our lives—personally or professionally—and decide that the best way to celebrate that progress is to sprinkle on a new bit of chaos.
- We can all laugh at this tendency to complicate life, but we should also find ways to simplify it.
- Here are 50+ short, timeless insights for simplifying your world—"hacks" for your life, careers, relationships, health, money, and more.
Today at a Glance:
- When compared to our ancestors, our lives appear to be filled with significantly more attention-grabbing pulls in a variety of directions. Our attention is more divided than ever.
- Attention residue is the idea that there is a cognitive cost to shifting your attention from one task to another. When our attention is shifted, there is a "residue" that remains in the brain and impairs our cognitive performance on the new task.
- To fight back: (1) Work in deep focus blocks, (2) take regular walks or breathers between higher value tasks, and (3) batch processing times for messages. Implement these three strategies and you will immediately see a difference in your work quality and efficiency.
Today at a Glance:
- When compared to our ancestors, our lives appear to be filled with significantly more attention-grabbing pulls in a variety of directions. Our attention is more divided than ever.
- Attention residue is the idea that there is a cognitive cost to shifting your attention from one task to another. When our attention is shifted, there is a "residue" that remains in the brain and impairs our cognitive performance on the new task.
- To fight back: (1) Work in deep focus blocks, (2) take regular walks or breathers between higher value tasks, and (3) batch processing times for messages. Implement these three strategies and you will immediately see a difference in your work quality and efficiency.
Today at a Glance:
- The highest performers embrace software updates. They treat their minds like a code base that requires consistent updates and resets to improve upon the old.
- There are a variety of baseline rules for life that are deeply ingrained into our minds and in dire need of an update. Many of these rules are culturally ingrained, meaning they have been repeated and passed down with no regard for their continued accuracy, or the quality of their underlying assumptions.
- Today's piece shares 8 rules that have been commonly repeated, but that we should probably start breaking.
Today at a Glance:
- Becoming a father has changed a lot of things about my life. My relationship with time—specifically my awareness of the passing of time—has fundamentally morphed.
- The Paradox of Time: We are aware of the incredible value of our time but constantly take actions that are disrespectful of that value. We know how important our time is, yet we ignore its passage and engage in low value activities that pull us away from the things that really matter.
- Our time is finite, but we often fail to recognize it until it's too late. Asking the hard questions and doing the simple math that they require is how you can bring awareness to the surface and rethink your priorities and tradeoffs.
Episode at a Glance
- Ancient culture was marked by an embrace of friction. Modern culture is marked by an avoidance of friction.
- In our obsessive quest to reduce friction, we may be eliminating some of the moments, experiences, and texture that made us uniquely human.
- My Prediction: In a world of steadily decreasing friction, it will be those who are willing to embrace friction that will thrive. To become one, start by finding small ways to choose the hard way even as the easy way stares you in the face.
Today at a Glance
- A high performer is a person who consistently executes their craft at a top-1% level over an extended period of time.
- I'm very fortunate to be able to spend time with many such people during the normal course of my "work"—from CEOs to athletes to investors to artists. This means I have a front row seat for direct observation of what makes these people tick.
- This piece lays out 12 non-obvious traits of high performers, including the ability to modulate intensity, focus on questions, embrace healthy paranoia, and more.
Today at a Glance:
- I spent most of my life as the “busy” guy. If anyone asked how I was doing, I would always respond with some variation of “so busy!” or “good, but really busy!” I was actually busy, but it also became part of my identity—a weird brag I developed to try to signal my value and improve my own self-worth.
- In the modern era, everyone seems really busy. We say we are busy as a status signal and for self-protection—we feel we are busy due to over-connectedness, obsessive optimization, and failures of prioritization.
- Busyness has a whole host of negative effects on our lives. We work more but actually get less done on the things that really matter. What's more, busyness negatively impacts our physical and mental health, as well as our enjoyment of daily life.
- Escaping the Busy Trap involves three key steps: (1) reframe the goal to focus on output per unit input, (2) prioritize what truly matters, and (3) embrace boredom and free time.
Today at a Glance:
- Whether we admit it or not, we spend a good portion of our lives protecting ourselves from reality. But there are times when our rose-colored glasses hold us back. In certain situations, when we fail to see the world as it is, we make sub-optimal decisions and miss out on critical growth and learning opportunities.
- Today's piece shares the "harsh truths" I've observed as life changing in their importance to our decision-making and progress.
- This piece is not intended to be dark or morbid. It's intended to make you think—to hopefully question some underlying (yet flawed) assumptions and spark active discussion with those around you.
Today at a Glance:
- The most successful people in the world achieve compounding success through incredible focus on a small number of projects and opportunities.
- You have a personal flywheel. Before it gets spinning, saying yes will help you identify the actions that will get it moving. Once it gets spinning, saying no will help you ruthlessly prioritize the actions that accelerate its pace.
- Use the 2-list strategy for establishing core priorities: Make a list of 25 priorities, circle the top 3-5 items on the list, mark everything else as the avoid-at-all-costs items.
- One helpful razor for saying no: If you don't want to do something RIGHT NOW, it's probably a no.
Today at a Glance:
- Warren Buffett is the most famous investor of all time. He is a treasure trove of frameworks, ideas, and insights, most of which apply well-beyond investing.
- Today's piece shares 8 of my favorite frameworks from the so-called Oracle of Omaha, including their application to your business, career, and life.
A “razor” is a rule of thumb that simplifies decision making.
Humans are wired to take shortcuts in our decision-making. These shortcuts can lead us astray—but when used appropriately, the shortcuts can be extremely valuable.
Today's piece shares a long list of powerful decision-making razors to help you make better decisions, faster than ever before.
Today at a Glance:
- Studying the daily routines of people you admire is a worthy pursuit. You can learn a lot about a person's priorities by breaking down their typical day. You may also learn something that will dramatically improve your own systems, habits, and processes.
- Benjamin Franklin was one of the most prolific entrepreneurs, thinkers, and leaders in history. I expected his daily routine to be a reflection of his incredible output: long, unrelenting, and complex. But the beauty of this schedule is in its pristine simplicity: two core questions and six blocks of time.
- The 6 core principles to apply: (1) Establish a fixed sleep schedule, (2) Create Clarity Questions, (3) Become a polymath, (4) Work in sprints. (5) Create order, and (6) Make time to unwind.
Episode at a glance:
- Incentives are a powerful and ubiquitous force. "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome" - Charlie Munger. Thoughtfully-designed incentives are likely to create wonderful outcomes. Poorly-designed incentives are likely to create terrible outcomes.
- Goodhart's Law says that when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Because of Goodhart's Law, incentive systems often suffer from unintended consequences.
- Poorly-designed incentives typically exhibit the McNamara Fallacy (what can't be measured isn't important), a narrow focus (missing the forest for the trees), or an obsession with vanity metrics (what looks impressive versus what actually matters).
- The 6 principles to consider in crafting thoughtful incentives: (1) Objectives, (2) Metrics, (3) Anti-Metrics, (4) Stakes & Effects, (5) Skin in the Game, and (6) Clarity & Fluidity.
Episode at a glance:
- What do you think you're in the top 0.1% of the world at? This question from a friend sparked me to think deeply about my own answer. I would encourage everyone to think about the question for themselves.
- My response: I legitimately enjoy being wrong. My father once told me that the most important thing wasn't being right; rather, it was finding the truth. From that point forward, I began embracing new information as “software updates" to improve upon the old.
- One result of this practice has been the logging of a long list of "truths" that I now believe are anything but. In today's piece, I share a portion of that list: 23 lies you've been told about careers, business, life, and more.
Read the full post
Hank is a 95-year-old man who asked to spend a day at Harvard for his 90th birthday. He arrived early, sat in the front row, took notes, and asked questions. He learns with no end in mind. He learns because he loves learning.
The forced structure of our formal education years often saps the innate curiosity and excitement for learning. New knowledge is crammed into closed containers in our brains--it's not allowed to mingle and network in a way that sparks new thinking pathways.
5 core habits of highly-effective lifelong learners: stimulate dynamically, build learning circles, build a learning engine, consistently ask why, and read daily.
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Today at a Glance:
The letter to your future self is a 10x unlock for life. The process of writing a letter forces deep reflection on the present and thoughtful rumination on the future.
Use a baseline time horizon of 5 years in the future, but adjust as you see fit. A basic letter structure to follow: (1) Reflections on the Present, (2) Changes to Make, (3) Goals for the Future, and (4) Fun & Crazy Predictions.
I handwrite the letters and store them in a cabinet, but if you’re looking for a more technology-enabled solution, there are tools like FutureMe that should do the trick.
Letter to Your Future Self
I’m always on the lookout for the “10x” opportunities in life.
What does that “10x” mean?
These are the step-function improvement or growth opportunities.
My generalized mental model for life is that truly meaningful change is only felt in 10x increments. This is a very rough approximation based on my own experiences. I think too many people jump at every 2x opportunity they encounter in life and thus find themselves too busy or without the mental bandwidth to capitalize on the 10x opportunities when they arise.
To be sure, you can achieve these 10x improvements through slow, steady, daily compounding of small gains—through consistent small wins. But now and then, you can achieve them through a single practice or tool, applied with deliberate focus and intention.
I’ve shared a few of the 10x practices I’ve uncovered in the past:
Anti-Goal Framework
Ultimate Productivity Tool
Intellectual Sparring Partners
In today’s piece, I’d like to share another: the letter to your future self.
Let’s dive right in…
Introduction
Every year on my birthday, I write a letter to my future self.
The idea of writing a letter to your future self certainly isn't new. In fact, the first time I did it was in middle school. A few days before my 8th grade graduation in June 2005, our entire class was required to write a letter to ourselves that would be delivered upon graduation from high school four years later.
In June 2009, I received the letter in the mail. It was a fun surprise considering I had completely forgotten about it!
I opened the letter and recall being blown away.
Apparently it was hard to take it seriously at age 14—the letter was filled with a bunch of silly, immature inside jokes—but it did have a few gems:
Reflections on the Present—most notably a desire to carve my own way rather than be defined by the impressive path that my older sister had established in high school.
Goals for the Future—a lofty ambition to play baseball at Stanford, which I somehow did accomplish!
But like most 18 year olds, I put the letter away in a filing cabinet and never thought about it again…
As fate would have it, on January 5, 2016—my 25th birthday—I was cleaning out some old files and found the letter.
I immediately decided to re-ignite the practice...
How to Structure the Letter
In writing the first letter on my 25th birthday, the time horizon I decided upon was 5 years.
Why 5 years?
Anecdotally, I have found that 5 years is the amount of time in which meaningful life change happens. When I thought about my own life, there were significant differences in my situation, mental state, and ambitions from age 15 to 20 to 25, so it struck me as an appropriate interval for the letters.
Note: 5 years was the number I chose, but you can adjust to your preferences. Some people may start with a 1-year time horizon to pull forward the opening process—that works too!
The letter format is mostly unstructured, but I try to have some degree of content consistency across them.
The four areas I am sure to address in each letter:
Reflections on the Present
Changes to Make
Goals for the Future
Fun & Crazy Predictions
A few specific topics within each:
Reflections on the Present
This is all about deconstructing the present. It functions as a deep journaling session that requires significant introspection.
Some prompts that may help:
What is working?
What isn't working?
What is giving me energy?
What is draining my energy?
What relationships give me genuine pleasure?
What relationships are toxic?
What is surprising me about the present?
Are my current habits aligned with my goals?
This portion of the letter is a bit of a brain dump—highly therapeutic.
Changes to Make
This is a natural outflow of the reflections on the present.
Review the responses to what is draining your energy, what relationships are toxic, and what habits are leading you away from your goals.
What changes do these responses suggest I need to make in my life today?
For every 1 degree a plane veers off course, it misses its target destination by 1 mile for every 60 miles flown. The lesson: Tiny deviations from the optimal course are amplified by time—off by a little now means off by a lot in 5 years.
The ability to adjust in real time is critical.
Goals for the Future
The key topics to cover related to goals:
What are my big picture, ambitious long-term goals?
What are my short and medium-term goals that will set the appropriate trajectory?
Why am I trying to achieve them?
What would winning the next 5 years look like?
What new habits or systems would be necessary to achieve these goals?
What are my anti-goals? This is a new addition and very important.
The goals section of the letter is my favorite part of the process. It requires you to zoom in and out in a way that is very clarifying.
Fun & Crazy Predictions
I finish each letter with some fun…
What are my crazy predictions for what the future will look like in 5 years?
You're writing to your future self, so this is the chance to have some fun. These predictions tend to be pretty funny—and wrong!—when you read them in 5 years.
Go crazy!
Early Reactions & Learnings
Since I wrote the first one on my 25th birthday, I started opening the letters on my 30th birthday in 2021.
A few early reactions and learnings from the opening process:
5 year plans are basically useless
I was way off on predicting where I'd be in 5 years.
Life simply changes too much in a 5 year span—especially in your 20s and 30s. Having a 5 year plan is fine if it provides value via structure and focus, but recognize that it's probably going to have to adjust.
Reject the dogmatic pursuit of 5 year plans—be nimble and agile as you grow.
Focus on systems and habits
My reflection on the alignment of my systems and habits with my goals was the best predictor of my achievement of said goals.
Making adjustments and course correcting habits in real time was the most impactful part of the reflection.
The physical writing process forced a level of honesty and introspection that led to real changes.
Learn to dance sober
In my first letter, I expressed some disappointment:
"The only way I'm comfortable dancing in public is when I'm drunk. I want to change that."
If you can dance in public while sober, you're truly comfortable with yourself.
Let's all learn to dance—poorly but proudly!
Conclusion
The process of writing a letter to your future self forces deep reflection on the present and thoughtful rumination on the future.
I've written 7 letters to date. All 7 have led to meaningful newfound clarity and real-time adjustments that have contributed to new growth and progress.
I cannot recommend a practice more highly.
I handwrite the letters and store them in a cabinet, but if you’re looking for a more technology-enabled solution, there are tools like FutureMe that should do the trick.
To summarize, the letter to your future self:
Reflections on the Present: Deconstruct the present. What’s working? What isn’t?
Changes to Make: Review your reflections. What changes are required to improve your life today?
Goals for the Future: Establish your short, medium, and long-term goals for the future. Establish anti-goals to avoid winning the battle but losing the war.
Fun & Crazy Predictions: Have some fun and make some wild predictions for the future. Close with some flare!
So today or on your next birthday, give this practice a shot. You won’t regret it!
I’d love to hear what you think. Share this article and tag me @SahilBloom with your experience with the letter to your future self. I’ll be retweeting the best responses in the days ahead.
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Today at a Glance:
Our minds tend to overcomplicate the process required to achieve forward progress. We incorrectly assume that it requires herculean effort or intensity.
The reality? Giant leaps forward are simply the macro output of tens, hundreds, or thousands of tiny daily steps.
The Seinfeld Calendar Framework: (1) Hang a big calendar on the wall; (2) Use a big red marker to put an X over every day that you complete your daily habit; and (3) Don’t break the chain of Xs!
The 30-for-30 Challenge: Choose the arena, commit to 30 days of 30 minutes per day, create pressure loops by stating your intentions publicly, and use a calendar or tool to track your daily execution.
If you’re interested in being a part of a 30-for-30 Challenge community, fill out the form here to get exclusive first access when it’s launched.
The 30-for-30 Challenge
I spend a lot of time thinking about progress.
I find happiness and fulfillment in progression—in the feeling of being one step further down the path from where I was yesterday.
I’m not quite sure where that path is headed, but I am sure that the only way I want to progress along it is forward.
Over time, I’ve observed that our minds tend to overcomplicate the process required to achieve this forward progression. We incorrectly assume that it requires herculean effort or intensity.
The reality? Giant leaps forward are simply the macro output of tens, hundreds, or thousands of tiny daily steps.
My goal with my writing is always the same: take the complex and make it simple. So today, I’d like to share my simple, tactical approach for making forward progress.
Seinfeld’s Secret
Jerry Seinfeld is an absolute legend—an inspiring figure to study for creatives and non-creatives alike.
He is considered one of the top comedians of all time and has amassed a reported financial fortune of nearly $1 billion. He earned a total of $100,000 for the entire first season of Seinfeld. By season 9, he was earning over $1 million per episode.
Jerry Seinfeld is impressive in many ways, but perhaps most impressive is the fact that he has exhibited such tremendous creative consistency over the years. As he is quick to point out in a number of interviews, this was not some gift he was simply born with.
It was—at least partially—engineered.
An up-and-coming comedian named Brad Isaac had a famous interaction with Jerry Seinfeld that revealed his strategy for hacking consistency and growth:
He said the way to be a better comic was to create better jokes and the way to create better jokes was to write every day.
He told me to get a big wall calendar that has a whole year on one page and hang it on a prominent wall. The next step was to get a big red magic marker. He said for each day that I do my task of writing, I get to put a big red X over that day.
“After a few days you'll have a chain. Just keep at it and the chain will grow longer every day. You'll like seeing that chain, especially when you get a few weeks under your belt. Your only job is to not break the chain.”
I call this the Seinfeld Calendar Framework:
Hang a big calendar on the wall.
Use a big red marker to put an X over every day that you complete your daily [insert habit]. The habit should be simple and manageable to complete.
Don’t break the chain of Xs!
Importantly, it was not about the writing or jokes being high quality—it was about the consistency of the daily practice.
The beauty in this system was in its sheer simplicity. It emphasized a manageable daily practice that would compound effectively.
Seinfeld knew: With daily practice comes long-term prowess.
30-for-30 Challenge
After reading about Seinfeld’s calendar hack, I adapted it to create my own improvement approach.
I call it the 30-for-30 Challenge: 30 days, 30 minutes per day.
The mechanics are simple:
Choose your arena for progress. This can be any new skill, habit, or an existing area of competency you are looking to improve.
Commit to focused effort in that arena for 30 minutes per day for 30 consecutive days.
Create a positive pressure loop. State your intention publicly or tell a friend or family member about your plan. This subtle decision makes it more costly to quit.
Track the daily execution with a calendar.
The 30-for-30 Challenge has three core advantages:
Meaningful Commitment
Choosing a single arena for progress requires clear commitment that reveals whether you are physically and psychologically invested in the thing you want to improve at.
30 days of effort is meaningful.
If you’re half-in, you won’t want to take it on and commit to the full scope 30 days.
It’s a commitment razor.
Light Intimidation
While 30 days is long enough to require a real commitment, 30 minutes is short enough that it removes intimidation and allows you to mentally attack it.
Pre-start self-intimidation is one of the biggest drivers of stagnation. We make something too daunting, so we don’t take it on. New habits and improvement initiatives can often feel that way.
Remember: When you’re staring at a cold lake, jumping in is the hardest part—once you’re in it, it’s not so bad!
A lot of people say they want to get into great cardio shape, but if they’re currently out of shape, it can feel like a daunting task. 30-for-30 breaks the intimidation down into something simple, reasonable, and manageable.
Just punch the clock for 30 minutes today. That’s it.
Effective Compounding
30 days of 30 minutes per day is 900 total minutes of accumulated effort.
900 minutes of focused effort can have surprisingly significant results. There’s almost nothing in the world that you won’t improve at if you spend 900 minutes of focused, dedicated effort on it.
A few examples:
900 minutes of Zone 2 cardio puts you in much better cardiovascular shape.
900 minutes of writing makes you a dramatically better writer.
900 minutes of reading can cover several classic books and many articles.
900 minutes of meditation can build toward a clear mind.
900 minutes of work on that secret project will make a dent.
Remember: Giant leaps forward are simply the macro output of tens, hundreds, or thousands of tiny daily steps.
Small things become big things.
Conclusion
To summarize the 30-for-30 Challenge:
Choose the Arena: What habit do you want to create? What skill do you want to build or improve upon?
Commit: 30 days, 30 minutes per day.
Create Pressure Loops: State your intentions publicly or tell a friend.
Track: Use a calendar or tool to track your daily execution. One of my awesome Twitter followers created this nifty Notion tool that you can use as a tracker.
30-for-30 works because it creates a marathon of short, manageable sprints. It forces you to work like a lion, consistently.
Intensity + Consistency = Progress.
30-for-30 Community
I’m insanely bullish on the power of community to help us achieve our goals. That’s why I’m planning to build out an exclusive community of growth-oriented individuals who want to support each other on the journey.
If you want to be a part of the 30-for-30 Challenge Community, add your email below and get notified for first access when it launches.
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Today at a Glance:
Logical fallacies are errors in reasoning that undermine the quality of an argument.
Combatting them relies first and foremost on establishing a level of awareness—both academically and practically.
The Logical Fallacy Guide covers 20 common logical fallacies: Ad Hominem, Texas Sharpshooter, Sunk Cost Fallacy, Bandwagon Fallacy, Straw Man, Appeal to Authority, Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc, Personal Incredulity, False Dilemma, Burden of Proof, Red Herring, No True Scotsman, Hasty Generalization, Non-Sequitur, Tu Quoque, Slippery Slope, Begging the Question, Loaded Question, Equivocation, and Fallacy Fallacy.
The Logical Fallacy Guide
If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you know that I like to say that humans are fascinating creatures.
We possess the capacity to accomplish some complex feat of technology and engineering, and subsequently fall victim to the most obviously flawed base logic.
Logical fallacies—errors in reasoning that undermine the quality of an argument—are classic examples of this fact.
The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines fallacy as a false or misleading idea. A logical fallacy, therefore, can simply be thought of as logic based on a false or misleading idea.
Unfortunately, unless you went to law school—or took a robust philosophy course load in college—you’ve likely been minimally exposed to them in a formal context.
Accordingly, we frequently fall victim to logical fallacies—our own emotional, psychological, and intellectual blindspots create the cracks and we fall right into them.
There is no such thing as a perfect logician, but we can all strive to cover our blindspots and craft better arguments. Similar to the study of cognitive biases—which I’ve written about recently here and here—the first step in avoiding logical fallacies is developing an awareness of them.
In that vein, today’s piece will cover 20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid.
Without further ado, let’s dive in…
Ad Hominem
Latin phrase for "to the person”—an ad hominem attack is an attack of the individual rather than the argument.
Instead of addressing the argument—its structure, logic, and merits—the offender attempts to refute the opposition on the basis of personal characteristics.
It may be overt—openly attacking the person’s character or personality—or covert—subtly doing the same—but it always focuses on the person, not the argument.
Often referred to as “mud-slinging” in political circles, if you’ve ever watched a political debate or political campaign ads, you’re already familiar with this one. It’s all-too-common on Twitter and other online discourse, as well.
Example
Candidate 1: “…and this is why I believe we need to implement a much more aggressive set of climate change regulations.”
Candidate 2: “I’m sorry, but are we really expected to believe anything coming from a known liar who cheated on his college entrance exams to get to this position?”
The offender (Candidate 2) has attacked Candidate 1 the individual, rather than the argument itself.
The Texas Sharpshooter
The name of this fallacy is based on a fable:
A Texan fires a gun multiple times at a barn wall. He then walks over to the bullet-riddled wall and paints a target around the closest cluster of bullet holes to create the appearance of impressive marksmanship.
Think of this as cherry-picking—selecting and highlighting evidence that supports the conclusion and systematically ignoring evidence that may refute it.
Example
“Tara is a really impressive and successful restauranteur. Her restaurant on Park Avenue is always full and gets really high ratings on Yelp.”
This may be true, but it ignores the fact that Tara’s five other restaurant openings have failed. The cherry-picked data—the successful Park Avenue restaurant—is used to draw a broad conclusion about Tara’s quality as a restauranteur that may be inaccurate.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
A favorite of behavioral economics.
Sunk costs are the economic costs already invested in an activity that cannot be recovered. Money spent on non-refundable flights and hotels, time invested in a project, or energy put towards a relationship all qualify as sunk costs.
The fallacy is found in thinking that you should continue with something on the basis of all that you've put in, with no regard given for future costs or likelihood of ultimate success.
The reality: sunk costs are irrecoverable, so should not factor into the decision about the future.
Example
“The hopes for the space project appear slim, but we have already invested so much, so we have to finish.”
If the space project appears unlikely to achieve its stated objectives, any additional investment in the project may be irrational. The fact that a lot has been invested in it has no bearing on what should rationally be invested in its future.
“I really don’t want to go on this vacation—I’m so busy at work—but I already paid for the flights, so I might as well go.”
The cost of the flights is a sunk cost. If going on the vacation is going to bring you negative utility, that should be the only factor in your decision of whether or not to make the trip.
Bandwagon Fallacy
An assumption of truth on the basis of the majority of people believing it to be true.
"Everyone believes X, so obviously X is true."
The assumption is typically made without regard for the qualifications or ability of the people in question to validate the claim.
Common in the workplace, where a collective belief—“this is how everyone does it”—can lead to broken processes and systems.
Example
"Well, the majority of people we talk to say that integrating chip design and manufacturing is important, so clearly you should get onboard so we can continue forward with our integrated solution, rather than switching to something modular.”
The over-reliance on the majority—with no regard for whether these people are qualified to make this decision—may lead to poor judgement. This is where first principles thinking goes to die.
Straw Man
Setup a straw man to tear down.
The offender ignores the actual argument and replaces it with a flimsy, distorted, easily-refuted argument—a straw man.
By replacing a strong argument with a weak one, the offender creates the illusion of an easy, swift victory.
When done effectively, it is an intellectual sleight-of-hand that leaves observers with the impression that the offender has “won” the argument, when the reality is much different.
Politicians are often expert practitioners of the straw man fallacy.
Example
Candidate 1: “I believe we should focus on our local climate initiatives and hire a team to track and manage our various projects.”
Candidate 2: “So let me get this straight, you’re advocating for our town to take our taxpayer dollars away from our schools and safety programs and redirect them towards expensive McKinsey consultants making flowcharts of our climate projects?”
Candidate 2 effectively repositions the argument as taking money away from schools and safety programs—both of which are important to the community—which makes it easier to attack and refute.
The Appeal to Authority
The over-reliance on the perspective of an "expert" to support the legitimacy of an argument.
Over-reliance is a dangerous game. The qualifications of the authority figure in the field of question must be considered.
As a rule of thumb, the support of an authority figure can be a feature—but not a central pillar—of an argument.
Example
“Well our CEO and board all think that acquiring our competitor is what we should do, so it must be the right move.”
The CEO and board may not have all of the details that the troops on the ground have earned and possess, so may not be qualified to make a judgement on the matter.
At a minimum, the decision to acquire the competitor must be grounded in additional evidence beyond the stated belief of the CEO and board.
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”—this flawed logic follows a simple structure:
Event B followed Event A
Therefore Event B must have been caused by Event A
The reality: Just because B followed A, doesn’t necessarily mean that B was caused by A.
Correlation ≠ Causation.
Example
“The crickets begin chirping just before the sun goes down. The crickets must make the sun go down.”
Easy to spot when taken to the extreme, but more challenging to identify when somewhere in the middle.
Personal Incredulity
You are unable to understand or believe something, therefore you argue that it cannot be true.
Complex topics often require significant upfront work to understand, so an inability to understand or comprehend something cannot be used to argue the illegitimacy of a claim.
Example
“The idea that we will ever mine for minerals on asteroids is completely ridiculous. I’m no scientist, but there is no way that will ever be cost effective or efficient, so it will never happen.”
The person making the claim is using an inability to understand the science and cost curve improvement potential as a basis for arguing it will never happen. They have self-proclaimed a lack of qualification to cast judgement—“I’m no scientist”—and have allowed personal incredulity to infiltrate their logic.
(Note: Asteroid mining might be real?)
The False Dilemma
Presenting two choices or alternatives when there are many more that exist. The extremes are presented with no regard for the potential shades of grey.
The false dilemma ignores nuance and lends itself to extreme positions and outcomes. When used, it typically reduces the potential for compromise, as the two options are painted as being extremely far apart.
An all-too-common fallacy in the polarizing world of politics.
Example
“The choice here is simple—either you love freedom and liberty or you love tyranny and oppression. Your call.”
If this line seems stolen from a political campaign, it’s probably because it is. Clearly there is more nuance, but the false dilemma creates a scenario where people have to choose a side.
Dangerous and polarizing.
Burden of Proof
The offender uses the inability of the opponent to provide evidence that a claim is false as justification that the claim is true.
The lack of refuting evidence cannot be considered to be the same as supporting evidence.
The burden of proof lies with the person making the claim to provide supporting evidence—see Hitchens’ Razor.
Example
Tim: “Paranormal activity is clearly real.”
Elizabeth: “No it’s not. Come on, that’s ridiculous.”
Tim: “You haven’t given me one piece of evidence that it’s not real, so it’s clearly real!”
Tim is making the claim and using the lack of refuting evidence as support for the validity of his claim. Elizabeth can use Hitchens’ Razor—the burden of proof is clearly unmet, so no argument is required to dismiss Tim’s argument.
The Red Herring
The term “red herring” comes from the world of hunting dog training:
Hunting dog trainers needed a good way to train the dogs to stay focused on a target scent. The dogs had a keen sense of smell, but they were also easily distracted. In order to train this focus, the trainers developed a strategy—one that involved a smelly fish.
The kippered herring is a reddish-brown fish with a pungent nose. During training, the kippered herring would be introduced as a distracting scent to test whether the dogs were able to stay on track.
From this origin, the "red herring" became synonymous with distraction.
The offender distracts from the argument with a seemingly related—but actually unrelated—point. The discussion is rerouted to a new argument where the offender is better-positioned to respond and win.
Example
Worker: “I can’t believe you’re only paying us $15 per hour. The market rate is much higher.”
Manager: “When I was working the warehouse, we had to work for $10 per hour in much worse conditions, so you have it pretty good in there now, if you ask me.”
The manager’s personal experience is unrelated to the market rate point made by the worker. The manager has shifted the argument to a discussion of hourly rate and working condition progression rather than of the market matter at hand.
No True Scotsman
The "appeal to purity" is characterized by the changing of the original argument to evade a counter-argument.
It is typically used to protect a hasty generalization by excluding the counter-argument that would bust the generalization.
Example
Jeremy: “A Scotsman never drinks scotch with soda.”
Charles: “I am a Scotsman and I drink scotch with soda.”
Jeremy: “Then you must not be a true Scotsman!”
Rather than acknowledge the counter-argument and evidence, the terms of the argument are changed to simply exclude the counter-argument.
Hasty Generalization
In short, jumping to conclusions.
When material, far-reaching, or wide-ranging conclusions are made on the basis of an immaterial, narrow body of evidence.
Insufficient evidence has been gathered or generated to justify the claimed conclusions. This does not mean the conclusions are definitively false—see The Fallacy Fallacy below—but it does mean that more work is required to prove them true.
Example
“The oldest man alive said that his secrets to a long life include smoking, drinking, and laughing with friends. I knew smoking and drinking weren’t bad for you!”
First off, this is actually a thing that happened. More importantly, this is clearly a hasty conclusion to draw on the basis of a sample size of 1. The evidence here is narrow and anecdotal at best, so no real conclusions can be drawn.
Non-Sequitur
The conclusion does not follow logically from the premises.
The evidence presented provides little or no actual support for the argument.
Example
“Charles ate fish for dinner and is well-spoken, so he must be a banker.”
The conclusion feels random and out of thin air relative to the evidence. This is a non-sequitur at its finest.
Tu Quoque
Latin for “you too”—an attempt to discredit an opponent’s argument by pointing out personal behavior as being inconsistent with their argument.
Targeting the hypocrisy of the opponent rather than the argument of the opponent.
Simple, yet oddly effective in political debates.
Example
Candidate 1: “The acceptance of $10 million in suspect funding truly calls into question the integrity of my opponent.”
Candidate 2: “Don’t question my integrity, look at all of the terrible things you have done!”
Candidate 2 is not addressing the actions noted by Candidate 1, instead choosing to attack the hypocrisy of Candidate 1 to discredit the argument.
It may be true that Candidate 1 has low integrity, but that has no bearing over the argument in question regarding Candidate 2’s integrity.
Slippery Slope
An argument that begins with a benign starting point before using a series of successive steps to get to a more radical, extreme end point.
The argument can feel compelling on the surface—no single step appears ridiculous—but the connection of multiple steps into the series is highly-improbable.
Think of this like a parlay bet—a bet that links together multiple bets or events into one. The more bets linked together, the lower the odds of the parlay hitting—and the higher the payout. Any one of the events may have a reasonable probability of occurring, but all of them occurring, and in the correct order, is nearly impossible.
Example
Politician: “If we legalize low-level drug crime, the criminals will make legal profits, invest in more expansive illegal networks, recruit new teams, and expand into new geographies. So we have to stay tough on all crime, even low-level drug crime, because otherwise it will get out of hand rapidly.”
The first step—that legal profits would be made—is plausible and likely, but the successive steps are each an assumption with no evidence in support. The innocuous starting point has led to an extreme end point and the extreme end point is used as justification for the argument.
Begging the Question
Circular reasoning takes the general form of:
If A then B
If B then A
The argument is circular in the sense that it collapses on itself. It may get you stuck in a paradox—check out the card paradox.
“Begging the Question” is a form of circular reasoning in which the argument is presented in such a way that the conclusion is included in the premise. The premise of the argument assumes the truth of the conclusion.
Example
“Ghosts are real because I once felt and heard something that was definitely a ghost.”
Easy to identify. The logic collapses on itself.
Loaded Question
The “loaded question” is a question asked with a presumption built into the question—it is pre-loaded.
Typically intended to be inflammatory in nature.
The individual on the receiving end of the question is forced to respond to the presumption despite its potentially baseless, irrelevant nature. It puts them on their heels and in a position of weakness where they are unable to revert to the original discussion or argument.
Example
Terry and Clarence are both competing for Mara’s affection. The three are together in a study hall period, when the following exchange occurs:
Terry: “Hey Clarence, what’s happening with the football team? You’re the captain and we are struggling.”
Clarence: “We will be fine, but have you been able to talk to Coach yet about your drug use suspension?”
Clarence has asked a “loaded question” that puts Terry on his heels. It may be baseless, but now Terry is forced to respond to an accusation of drug use when the original discussion was on the lack of leadership on the football team.
Equivocation
Comes from the roots “equal” and “voice”—a single word or phrase can say two very different things.
Equivocation is a classic tactic of the accused. It occurs when the offender—the accused in this case—uses a word, phrase, or sentence in an intentionally misleading manner.
The word, phrase, or sentence sounds like it’s saying one thing, but is actually saying something else.
Example
Police Officer: “Did you steal that television from the house?”
Accused: “I would never take something that wasn’t mine!”
The accused may believe that the television is rightfully hers, so by saying she would never take something that wasn’t hers, she is denying guilt without explicitly stating that she did not take the television.
The Fallacy Fallacy
The meta logical fallacy.
Incorrectly assumes that a claim must be false if a fallacy was used to argue the claim. Just because someone has poorly argued a claim, does not mean the claim itself is definitively false.
It may still be true, albeit poorly argued!
Example
“Paul, with all due respect, your argument for the health benefits of veganism was clearly based on a hasty generalization, so it is false and you are wrong. Therefore, Veganism is not healthy.”
The absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence. Paul may have failed to prove that veganism is healthy, but this doesn’t mean that it isn’t healthy.
Conclusion
There you have it—20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid.
I hope the definitions and examples in this guide help you feel more well-equipped to craft great arguments (and refute bad ones).
Where It Happens Podcast
How to Invent and Invest In the Future with Josh Wolfe
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Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
This episode is brought to you by LMNT. LMNT is a delicious electrolyte drink mix with all of the things you need and none of the junk. It contains a science-backed electrolyte ratio: 1000 mg sodium, 200 mg potassium, 60 mg magnesium. LMNT can help prevent and eliminate headaches, muscle cramps, fatigue, sleeplessness, and other common symptoms of electrolyte deficiency. It tastes amazing and is great after a workout or one too many drinks :)
Right now LMNT is offering our listeners a free sample pack with any order. That’s 8 single serving packets FREE with any LMNT order. Get yours at DrinkLMNT.com/HAPPENS. And it’s so good they have a no questions asked refund policy but you won’t need it.
This episode is brought to you by Fundrise. Fundrise is on a mission to use technology to build a better financial system for the individual. With over $2.4B AUM and 250k active investors, it’s the largest direct-to-investor real estate investor platform in America.Their platform is so easy to use and they make it so easy to diversify your portfolio. For a limited time if you sign-up, you can get $10 bonus. Just go to fundrise.com/room
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Today at a Glance:
There’s no such thing as an overnight success. Extraordinary success is simply the byproduct of a large volume of ordinary actions. The quality of our daily habits governs the ultimate quality of our long-term outcomes.
I frequently write and speak about the good habits—the ones that positively contribute to your desired outcomes. But what about the bad habits? Just as we want to identify what will propel us forward, isn’t it at least as important to know that which is holding us back?
Today’s piece covers 20 bad habits that are holding you back from reaching your potential. All of these are bad habits I have—or currently am—struggling with, so you definitely aren’t alone in this fight.
Bad Habits Holding You Back
I’m mildly obsessed with the myth of the overnight success.
There’s a story I love about Spanish painter Pablo Picasso that captures the essence of the myth very well:
Picasso was walking through the market one day when a woman approached him.
She pulled out a piece of paper and said, “Mr. Picasso, I am a fan of your work. Please, could you do a little drawing for me?”
Picasso smiled and quickly drew a small, but beautiful piece of art on the paper. He handed it back to her.
“That will be one million dollars.”
“But Mr. Picasso,” the woman protested, “It only took you thirty seconds to draw this little masterpiece.”
Picasso smiled, “On the contrary, it took me thirty years to draw that masterpiece in thirty seconds.”
The lesson: extraordinary success is simply the byproduct of a large volume of ordinary actions.
The quality of our daily habits governs the ultimate quality of our long-term outcomes.
I frequently write and speak about the good habits—the ones that positively contribute to your desired outcomes.
But what about the bad habits?
Just as we want to identify that which will propel us forward, isn’t it at least as important to know that which is holding us back?
In that vein, today’s piece will cover 18 bad habits that are holding you back from reaching your potential. All of these are bad habits I have—or currently am—struggling with, so you definitely aren’t alone in this fight!
These are designed to be short, punchy insights—I would encourage you to skip any that don’t apply and think deeply about those that specifically resonate with you.
Without further ado, let’s dive right in…
Focusing on the Urgent
It's easy to jump from one urgent task to the next.
But when you focus on the short-term urgent, you lose sight of the long-term important.
Spend most of your time focused on long-term important tasks—the compounders.
Delegate or delete the rest.
Saying Yes to Everything
Confession: I've always had a tough time saying no. I'd take on too much and then grind my way through—or even worse, under-deliver vs. expectations.
The ability to say no is a superpower of successful people. Be deliberate about what you spend your time on—and who you spend it with.
My rule of thumb: You should spend your 20s saying yes and your 30s and beyond saying no. Your 20s are a time to say yes to almost everything. Saying yes puts you into new and uncomfortable situations that expand your luck surface area. Your 30s and beyond are a time to say no to almost everything. Saying no allows you to focus & build leverage.
Glorifying the Wrong Things
What I used to glorify:
No sleep
100-hour workweeks
Busy schedules
Fancy titles and credentials
What I now glorify:
Sleeping 8 hours
Regular physical activity
Unstructured schedules
Working in short sprints
Spending time with family and friends
The realization: Freedom and control over your time is the one true status symbol. Success and wealth is meaningless if it doesn’t provide that freedom and control.
Comparison Traps
Throughout your life and career, it's tempting to compare yourself and your progress to those around you.
It’s borderline impossible to avoid:
This person made X dollars last year
That person got Forbes 30 Under 30
So and so raised $100m for their startup
They just got a vacation home and new car
It's natural, but dangerous—comparison is like gas on your “more” fire—it tears away the enjoyment of the present and tells you that it’s not enough.
Learn to turn it off.
Focus on what you can control. When you notice yourself falling into the trap, reset and focus on yourself.
Procrastinating
Confession: I spent most of my life as a chronic procrastinator.
I also spent most of my life justifying that chronic procrastination—both internally and externally. I told myself it was "just how I worked”—that the pressure of an imminent deadline was what I needed to thrive.
Procrastination holds you back from achieving at the level you are capable of.
My framework for how to stop procrastinating:
Awareness: Schedule a daily assessment of your day-to-day actions. Start by identifying the important long-term projects in your life. Then ask a few questions: Am I proud of the actions I am taking on these big projects? Am I doing what I should be doing? Create an awareness of your procrastination.
Deconstruction: Large, long-term projects look like a big, black box. Our imaginations tend to fill that box with endless complexity and unknown horrors. It's critical to deconstruct the big and scary project into small and individually-manageable tasks.
Plan Creation: Develop a plan of attack to check off the deconstructed task list. The plan for each micro task should be specific and time bound. Create a project document to track the plan and tasks.
Stake Creation: Create stakes that turn big projects into a “game” for yourself. These mental games can be very effective!
Action: A body in motion tends to stay in motion. Create systems that spark initial movement. Engineer small wins (they become big wins over time).
You can find my full piece on how to stop procrastinating here.
Complaining Incessantly
Complaining never got anyone anywhere worth going.
The world is effectively split across complainers and doers—the former will always talk while the latter will always act.
Complainers are on the sidelines. They sling rocks and hide from the repercussions.
Doers are in the arena. Doers fight—their bias for action creates luck and results.
Falling Into Productivity Traps
Hustle culture lied to you.
Obsessively optimizing your time with new "productive" activities is ironically counter-productive.
I like to think of free time as a “call option” on future interesting opportunities.
When you have free time built into your life, you have the headspace and bandwidth to jump at the high-upside ideas and openings that come to you in the normal course of your endeavors.
Taking Everyone's Advice
As you progress in your professional life, you're going to get a lot of advice from a lot of people.
Most of it is well-intentioned...and also total crap.
Why? It's dangerous to use someone else's map to navigate your world. It can be directionally sound, but if it’s based on a fundamentally different map of reality, it has limited use.
Learn to filter and selectively implement advice—take the signal, skip the noise.
Defaulting to a Jog
There are four speeds in life:
Rest
Walk
Jog
Sprint
Most modern era people default to a jog—we work at a moderate pace for long hours. It’s a staple of the work culture that was created during the Industrial Revolution.
Unfortunately, it’s dated at best and harmful at worst.
You'll go much faster and further by defaulting to either rest/walk or sprint.
Rest, walk, sprint, repeat.
There is no jog.
Blaming Time
We all need to stop blaming time while giving our focus a free pass.
I used to frequently complain that I didn't have the time to get to important projects. But after performing an honest assessment, I concluded time wasn’t to blame—my focus was.
Hold your focus to the fire—force it to level up.
Try using “progressive overload” for leveling up your focus:
Progressive overload training is when you gradually increase the weight, frequency, or reps in your workout routine. You slowly increase the load on your system to force it to get stronger.
Most of us start with a very low base capacity for deep focus.
Rather than jump into a focused work habit with failed 90-minute sprints, we can slowly build our focus muscle:
Week 1: 30 minutes
Week 2: 35 minutes
Week 3: 40 minutes
…and so on
Progressively overload your focus muscle!
Inactivity
Your body was made to move. Consistent daily activity is essential to your health, brain function, and happiness.
You don't need to have a complex regimen.
If you’re just getting started, try this daily minimum:
Walk for 30 minutes: Use the time to gather thoughts, listen to a podcast or audiobook, etc.
Raise your HR for 30 minutes: This can be any activity you enjoy that forces your heart rate above ~130.
Mobility work for 5 minutes: A few simple stretches to keep your hips and back mobile and strong.
Keep it simple and build from there.
Wanting to Be Right
A persistent desire to be right is a trap.
Finding the truth is much more important than being right. The most successful people legitimately enjoy being wrong.
Instead of arguing your position—ask great questions. Consider my Question-Action Matrix—asking great questions allows you to uncover new learnings and truths that you can then act against to create asymmetric outcomes.
Learn to embrace new information as “software updates" to your brain that improve upon the old.
Inaction
Overthinking and paralysis is often just a result of inaction.
The first movement is always the hardest—so just start moving.
Remember: The hardest part of jumping into a cold lake is just forcing yourself to jump. Once you’re in it, you feel refreshed and excited.
A body in motion tends to stay in motion. Maintaining a bias for action allows you to capitalize on opportunities that compound effectively.
Multitasking
Multitasking is simply fake productivity. You think you're crushing it but you're just running around churning out a bunch of C+ work.
Instead, build your day around focused sprints. 60 minutes works well, but you can build to longer if you have a strong capacity for it (I don’t!).
Compartmentalize and focus on the one key task at hand.
Waiting for the Perfect Moment
This bad habit has paralyzed would-be action-takers for generations.
The harsh reality: there is no such thing as the perfect moment.
Sometimes you just have to open the door, jump out of the plane, and hope you packed the parachute tight.
Viewing the World as Zero Sum
Simply put, zero sum thinkers are the worst.
Want to get ahead in life? Start genuinely rooting for others to succeed.
When one of us wins, we all win—winning spreads. If you adopt that mentality, you’ll become a magnet for the highest quality people.
Avoiding Hard Conversations
Hard conversations are...hard.
But avoiding them gets you nowhere. Being direct is the way.
A close mentor once gave me some great advice on how to handle hard conversations:
The other person should know what you're there to talk about within 30 seconds. That’s your only job and you owe it to them to deliver against it. Beating around the bush doesn't soften the blow, it just makes it more shocking.
Focusing on Money
Money should never be the focus—money is simply a byproduct of the value you create.
The Golden Rule: Create value, receive value.
If you focus on creating immense value for the people you work with, you'll find a way to make money.
Create value—then create leverage to scale the value you can create.
Conclusion
The two simple steps to achieve durable, long-term success:
Build good habits
Eliminate bad habits
My hope is that this list of 18 bad habits helped to provide a level of awareness that you can leverage to eliminate those that are holding you back.
Now go forth and conquer!
I’m also working on a follow up piece with a step-by-step framework for breaking bad habits, so stay tuned…
Where It Happens Podcast
$30M by Age 19 — And Where You Should Build Today
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Welcome to the 1,719 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 94,548 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Morning Brew!
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The Beauty of Enough
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.”
My son was born one week ago—it feels like one of those fabled weeks where decades happen.
I spent the first three decades of my life trying to find the meaning and purpose of all of this—then one week, it all came into view.
On Monday morning, I was with him in bed and had this profound sensation: For the first time in my life, I have enough.
I’ve always been extremely driven—I’ve always been in this constant cycle of wanting more.
But I feel…different.
Really, what more could I want?
This profound feeling prompted today’s piece—on our perpetual desire for more, and more importantly, on the beauty of enough.
My hope is for you to come away from it feeling empowered to think clearly and deeply about finding your “enough” amidst the constant search for more.
The Fisherman & The Banker
There’s a beautiful parable that I think about quite often…
A wealthy investment banker goes on vacation to a tropical fishing village. As he walks along the docks one afternoon, he comes upon a small, run-down fishing boat with several large fish on its deck.
"How long did it take you to catch those fish?" he asks.
The fisherman looks up from his work and smiles at his new visitor.
"Only a little while."
The investment banker is caught off guard by this response. He likes the fisherman and wants to help.
"Why don't you fish for longer so you can catch more fish?"
The fisherman shrugs and explains to his new friend that he has all he needs.
"Each day, I sleep late, fish a little, and spend time with my children and beautiful wife. In the evening, I go into town, drink wine, play the guitar, and sing and laugh with my friends."
The investment banker is puzzled. He wants to help his new friend, who he recognizes is clearly confused. The investment banker has helped many businesses and has an MBA and other fancy credentials to his name. So he lays out a plan for the fisherman...
"First, you spend more time fishing, so you can catch and sell more fish. You use the proceeds to buy a bigger boat, which allows you to catch and sell even more fish. Then you buy a fleet of boats. You hire a team. Vertically integrate! As CEO of a large, growing enterprise, you could move to the big city. You would take your company public and make millions!"
The fisherman looks confused, but smiles.
"And then what?" he asks.
The investment banker laughs at the silly question.
"Well, then you could retire to a quiet town! You could sleep late, fish a little, and spend time with your children and beautiful wife. In the evening, you could go into town, drink wine, play the guitar, and sing and laugh with your friends."
The fisherman smiles broadly, thanks his new friend for the advice, and wanders off slowly into the warm afternoon sun.
More vs. Enough
This parable illustrates the importance of perspective.
The story isn’t about the fisherman or the banker being “right”—it’s about personally identifying what success and purpose looks like to you, and then building a life that meets that definition.
Fundamentally, it’s about a dichotomy that rules our lives: More vs. Enough.
The Hedonic Treadmill
Hedonic adaptation is the tendency of humans to revert to a happiness baseline shortly after new positive or negative events.
It (probably) developed as a survival mechanism of sorts—in the wild, you needed to stay on an even keel in order to survive to reproductive age. After a big hunt and kill, the thrill of the victory had to wear off quickly so that you didn’t let your guard down and get eaten by a lion. That seems…good.
But in the modern age, hedonic adaptation has a darker side.
It becomes a treadmill—the Hedonic Treadmill—a perpetual motion machine that keeps us running in search of the next thing.
We create this magical universe in our minds where that one next thing will be exactly what makes us permanently, sustainably happier.
The harsh reality? We get to that next thing, appreciate it for a moment, and then turn our gaze to the next, next thing, with no marked improvement in our happiness.
You’ve undoubtedly seen this general dynamic play out:
We can finally buy the second home in Florida we’ve always dreamed of. Two weeks later, we’re complaining about maintaining it and thinking that a third home in Sedona sounds nice.
We buy that fancy car—we ride around smiling broadly with the music blasting, and then see someone in the newer model and start thinking about the next one.
We are like the modern equivalent of Sisyphus—a figure from Greek mythology who is sentenced by Zeus to an eternity of futile struggle. Sisyphus must roll a massive boulder up a steep hill, but as soon as he nears the top, the boulder rolls back down to the bottom, forcing him to start anew.
We all strive for growth, but our outsized focus on progress can result in an inability to feel gratitude for the present.
Finding Your “Enough”
So how do we step off the treadmill?
To me, this is about finding your version of “enough”—about balancing your natural desire for more with a deep appreciation for the beauty of the present.
A few strategies that have worked for me:
Develop a Gratitude Practice: Make it a daily practice to write down your gratitude. Either right when you wake up or right before bed, write down three things you are grateful for. They can be big (a healthy family) or small (a good meal in front of your favorite TV show)—the only thing that matters is that you make note of them. The practice forces gratitude for the present into the front of our minds and works wonders for your daily contentment and happiness.
Identify Your Happiness Triggers: Using your gratitude lists, identify what makes you happy. Not what you think makes you happy or what society says should make you happy—but what truly makes YOU happy. Maybe it’s as simple as a cold beer at the end of a hard day of work or listening to smooth jazz by yourself when everyone has gone to sleep. Whatever it is, find those triggers and prioritize them in your life.
End the Comparisons: We all have a horrible tendency to compare ourselves to others. Comparison is like gas on your “more” fire—it tears away the enjoyment of the present and tells you that it’s not enough. When you notice yourself falling into the comparison trap, reset and focus on yourself. “If we only wanted to be happy, it would be easy; but we want to be happier than other people, and that is almost always difficult, since we think them happier than they are.” - Montesquieu.
Give these strategies a try. They will all bring the present into a clear, brilliant focus.
Conclusion
For most of my life, I would have characterized myself as the investment banker from the parable above.
The quest for more dominated my headspace.
But this morning, lying in bed with my newborn son, I feel different.
"Each day, I sleep late, fish a little, and spend time with my children and beautiful wife. In the evening, I go into town, drink wine, play the guitar, and sing and laugh with my friends."
This sounds pretty damn good to me.
I don’t think I’ll ever be the fisherman—I’m still wired to strive for growth—but I do think we can all see a little bit of the fisherman in ourselves.
And I know that letting that inner fisherman shine through from time to time will lead to all of us living happier, more fulfilled lives.
If I can leave you with one lesson, it’s this:
Never let your quest for more distract you from the beauty of enough.
Where It Happens Podcast
Why You Need a Digital Detox with Andrew Wilkinson
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The full board with 20+ other roles can be found here!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the most important new member of the curiosity tribe who joined us since Friday—my son, Roman Reddy Bloom.
I spent the first 30 years of my life trying to find the meaning and purpose of all of this. Then one day, it was staring right back at me. My new best friend.
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Today at a Glance:
Anti-goals are the things we DON'T want to happen—either as final outcomes or along the way. Establishing them allows you to win the battle AND the war.
If traditional goals are the rudders that set your direction, think of anti-goals as the map that tells you where the rapids are. Awareness keeps you on smooth waters.
The generalized process involves four steps: (1) Choose Your Arena, (2) Establish Traditional Goals, (3) Invert the Problem, and (4) Establish Anti-Goals. Test it out by establishing anti-goals when planning for new projects, designing your life, or creating self-improvement plans.
The Ultimate Goal Setting Tool
I love writing this newsletter.
There are plenty of reasons, but at the top of the list is the fact that I get to take you all on a journey with me. Not a physical journey—though it would be fun to do a Curiosity Chronicle retreat someday!—but a learning journey.
I’m able to share new insights and perspectives in real time.
This isn’t some academic newsletter where I lecture you on truths and personal wisdom—this is simply me sharing ideas, frameworks, and models that I am battle-testing on my own journey.
I am not a teacher—I am a student, learning alongside all of you.
In that vein, today’s piece will share a new learning: the power of Anti-Goals.
An Introduction to Anti-Goals
At the start of 2022, I shared a piece called The Goal Setting Guide—a breakdown of my framework for setting—and smashing—goals.
Shortly after I shared the piece, however, I came across the intriguing concept of “anti-goals” from my friend Andrew Wilkinson. I began to wonder if my goal setting framework was in need of a refresh.
I like to personally battle-test new concepts before I share them publicly, so I started establishing “Anti-Goals” for all new projects.
Everything changed.
It quickly became a staple for:
Planning for new projects
Designing my life
Creating self-improvement plans
So with sufficient battle-testing behind me, I'd like to share how to leverage anti-goals to level up your goal setting process.
The concept is grounded in inversion—a foundational mental model that says that complex problems are often easier solved backwards vs. forwards.
Inversion was made famous by one quote from Charlie Munger:
All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.
With traditional goals, we envision the optimal outcome. We then build systems that will—hopefully—lead to that outcome.
This is important and necessary—but it’s incomplete. Anti-goals leverage inversion to complete the picture.
Anti-goals are the things we DON'T want to happen—either as final outcomes or along the way.
I think of anti-goals as being about avoiding the Pyrrhic victory—a term coined after King Pyrrhus of Epirus, who suffered devastating losses while defeating the Roman army in battle in 279 B.C.E.
The term is now commonly used to refer to a victory that takes such a terrible toll on the victor that it might has well have been a defeat.
My friend Shaan Puri, another proponent of anti-goals, elaborates:
What if your dream was to be a musician. And guess what - you did it! But while you’re touring the world, you gain weight, get addicted to drugs, your marriage is in shambles, and your kids don’t recognize you....you won the battle but lost the war.
Anti-goals allow you to win the battle AND the war!
The Anti-Goal Framework
Ok, so how do you leverage anti-goals in your goal setting process?
The generalized version involves four steps:
Choose Your Arena
Establish Traditional Goals
Invert the Problem
Establish Anti-Goals
Let’s walk through each step:
Choose Your Arena
The arena is the "project" you’re going to be working on.
A few broad categories to consider:
Personal
Work
Health
Your arena should be a specific project under a larger category. It’s the place where you’re looking for achievement, progress, or growth.
Establish Traditional Goals
These are your standard goals—the desired outcomes from the chosen arena. This should be easy, as it’s familiar.
A few examples of traditional goals:
Run a 6-min mile
Build a 100,000 sub newsletter
Promotion to VP
Create a top-25 podcast
Clear, big picture traditional goals are important.
Note: As I covered in my Goal Setting Guide, it’s often helpful to have short, medium, and long-term traditional goals. Experiment with what works best for you.
Invert the Problem
To invert, ask and answer a few questions.
In the pursuit of these traditional goals:
What is the worst possible outcome?
What systems would lead to that?
What daily actions would I regret?
In short, ask yourself what you would view as winning the battle but losing the war.
Establish Anti-Goals
Now work backwards to establish your anti-goals—the outcomes you DON’T want.
James Clear refers to traditional goals as rudders. Expanding on this analogy, if traditional goals are the rudders that set your direction, think of anti-goals as the map that tells you where the rapids are.
A thoughtful, clear map keeps you on smooth waters.
An Illustrative Example
It can be a bit confusing in the abstract, so let’s look at a recent example from my own life…
Choose Your Arena: Physical Fitness
Establish Traditional Goals:
Run a 6-minute mile
Under 8% bodyfat
Deadlift 500 pounds
Perhaps a bit too ambitious at age 31, but it feels doable if I’m dedicated (and if I get any sleep post baby arrival)!
Invert the Problem:
What does the worst possible outcome look like? Letting it consume my entire life!
Constantly stressing about what workouts to do and about what foods to eat. Working out for 3 hours per day when I want to spend time with my family and friends.
Breaking it down further, what actions or systems would lead to that worst possible outcome? Trying to do everything myself.
Managing my own research on workouts and food. Trying to write, track, and manage my own workout and diet plan. Not scheduling fixed windows for workouts.
Establish Anti-Goals:
Never think about workouts. Hire a trainer to write workout programs.
Never think about diet. Buy pre-prepared healthy meals.
Never let workouts consume my life. Schedule 90-minute blocks at the same time every AM as my workout window.
Putting it all together, my fitness project now has a complete picture:
Traditional Goals:
Run a 6-minute mile
Under 8% bodyfat
Deadlift 500 pounds
Anti-Goals:
Never think about workouts—hire a personal trainer.
Never think about diet—buy pre-prepared meals.
Never let workouts consume life—schedule 90-minute blocks.
I know where I want to go, and where I want to avoid—my rudders are set, and I have a map of the rapids.
As another example, in his original blog post on the topic, Andrew Wilkinson sketched out how he established anti-goals to design his work.
In this example, Andrew and his business partner wanted to pursue success and wealth creation, but not at the expense of peace of mind. Establishing anti-goals to sit alongside their goals allowed them to do both.
Conclusion
To summarize the Anti-Goal Framework:
Choose Your Arena: Select the project you are going to be working on.
Establish Traditional Goals: Set the specific desired outcomes.
Invert the Problem: What would it look like to win the battle but lose the war?
Establish Anti-Goals: Set the specific outcomes you DON’T want.
So as you take on your next project, give this framework a shot. Establish anti-goals to sit alongside your traditional goals.
Win the battle AND the war!
Where It Happens Podcast
Are With Alone In The Universe? (with Tim Urban)
Watch it on YouTube and listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
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This episode is brought to you by Fundrise. Fundrise is on a mission to use technology to build a better financial system for the individual. With over $2.4B AUM and 250k active investors, it’s the largest direct-to-investor real estate investor platform in America.Their platform is so easy to use and they make it so easy to diversify your portfolio. For a limited time if you sign-up, you can get $10 bonus. Just go to fundrise.com/room
Sahil’s Hiring Zone
Talent Collective
Completely free for candidates. Use the link here to apply!
Companies can get exclusive access to these terrific candidates by buying a collective pass here.
Featured Opportunities
Clipboard Health - Growth Strategy & Marketing Manager, Engineering Manager
Elevate Labs - Head of Growth Partnerships
Gruntwork - Senior Software Engineer
Practice - Product Designer
DaoHq - Founding Solidity Developer
Artifact - Product Designer
Clay - Growth Manager
Assemble - Software Engineer
The full board with 20+ other roles can be found here!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 1,044 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 91,634 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Hyper startup accelerator is open for applications!
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This is an amazing opportunity for startups all around the world. Apply for the program here.
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Today at a Glance:
Public speaking is scary. So scary that a number of surveys and studies have found that people rank public speaking ahead of death on a list of their greatest fears.
It’s also one of the most critical skill sets for your career and life. Confident, powerful public speaking—whether informal or formal—will accelerate your personal and professional life.
Strategies for more confident public speaking: avoid memorization, study the best, strike a power pose, practice relentlessly, find the anxiety killers, play the lava game, slow down to 0.75x, engage the audience, implement a storytelling structure, move with purpose, never self-sabotage, and cut the fear.
The Power Speaking Guide
"There are two types of speakers: those that are nervous and those that are liars." — Mark Twain
Ok, so public speaking is scary.
How scary?
Well, a number of surveys and studies have found that people rank public speaking ahead of death on a list of their greatest fears…
THAT scary.
Unfortunately, public speaking is also one of the most critical skill sets for your career and life. Confident, powerful public speaking—whether informal or formal—will accelerate your personal and professional endeavors. It sits in the all-important top-right quadrant of the Scary vs. Beneficial 2x2 grid.
So we can’t just hide from it. We need a set of strategies to increase our confidence and level up our speaking game.
In today’s piece, I’ll propose 12 such strategies. Some of the strategies will appear non-obvious or even counter-intuitive—but trust me, they work.
Without further ado, let’s dive in…
Avoid Memorization
When we’re nervous for a speech, toast, presentation, or talk, our bias is to memorize the content word-for-word.
We memorize in a valiant effort to avoid screwing up.
Ironically, memorization often has the opposite effect.
Imagine you are driving to a friend’s new house. You look up the directions before leaving—they seem simple enough, so you just memorize them. On the way, there’s a bit or roadwork that forces you to make a slight detour. Suddenly, you’re completely lost. You memorized the directions from A to B, but the slight twist has taken you off course and you have no clue how to get back on track. You only memorized the directions for one specific scenario (going directly from point A to point B), but the situation became more dynamic.
For most people, the same general principle applies to public speaking.
When you memorize material, one tiny slip-up can throw you off. You only know the material in one fixed direction, so you're unable to adapt. All it takes is a glitch in the slides, an off-track question from the audience, or a slight stumble in your opener and all of your preparation is out the window.
Furthermore, rote memorization can make you appear distant to the audience.
Instead of memorizing:
Focus on a few key moments. Perfect the opening line, transitions, and closing. When you nail these, you create momentum—with the audience and yourself. It instills a confidence you can build on. Manufacture these small "wins" that compound.
Create “lego blocks” that you can piece together. Hone small chunks of stories and ideas that you can naturally weave together depending on the situation. You’ll be able to pick and choose from your toolkit and be more dynamic in the moment.
Study the Best
We live in an amazing era—we literally have the best speaking coaches in the world at our fingertips.
Identify 3-5 speakers you admire. They can be politicians, business leaders, comedians, motivational coaches, whatever.
Go on YouTube and find videos of each one delivering a speech.
Slow down the playback speed—a great recommendation from my friend Ankur Warikoo—and take notes.
Study the following:
Structure: How are they structuring their talk?
Cadence: What is the pacing of their words? When are they pausing and when are they accelerating?
Tone: When are they raising their voice? When are they lowering it?
Movement and Gestures: Note their movement on the stage (if any). How are they gesturing?
Audience Engagement: How are they engaging with the audience?
By analyzing the best, we naturally move to embody the traits we've identified.
Strike a Power Pose
A "power pose" is a stance that embodies a feeling of power—standing tall, arms spread and raised.
The original discussion around the power pose entered the mainstream when social psychologist Amy Cuddy delivered a now famous Ted Talk on the topic that has been viewed over 20 million times.
Cuddy asserted that executing power poses can actually create feelings of confidence and power. The science behind this is now heavily-contested.
Personally, scientific backing or not, I swear by it. In my own experience, it has a real effect—even if it's psychosomatic. At my first job, before every big presentation, I'd find an empty room and spread my arms high and wide. It always worked.
Try it.
Before your next talk or presentation, find a quiet place, take a few deep breaths, and raise your arms high and wide, triumphantly over your head. Speak a few positive affirmations to yourself. Then go out and crush it.
I’ll let the scientists battle it out over the scientific legitimacy of the practice—in the meantime, I’ll keep doing it because it works for me!
Practice Relentlessly
Perhaps it should go without saying, but practice is everything.
Capitalize on every opportunity to practice—both for a specific event and for the skill more broadly.
When practicing for a specific event, start by doing it in private to remove the fear. Use your phone to record and watch your performance. Then transition to practicing in front of an audience of one—ideally an intellectual sparring partner—who you can ask for candid feedback.
Building from alone to a small audience is a way of progressively loading your nerves to prepare for the main event. You slowly increase the stakes as you prepare.
More broadly, find alternative ways to hone your craft:
If you're at an event in a small group, use it as a chance to improve.
Join an improv class! I've had several friends do this—it sounds like a low-risk environment, plenty of fun, and a huge boost to your speaking skills.
Get creative with it.
Find the Anxiety Killers
There are always a few people in the audience who are prone to smiling, nodding, and engaging positively. I call these people “Anxiety Killers” because their positive engagement kills your anxiety.
At the beginning of your speech, scan the front of the crowd as you hit your opening lines. Identify the few people who smile, make warm eye contact, and nod.
These are your Anxiety Killers!
If you ever start to feel the tinge of nerves during the speech, turn your gaze to them to get a jolt of quick confidence.
Play the Lava Game
As a kid, I remember playing a game where parts of the floor are “lava” that you can't touch.
During a speech, I try to play a similar game. I think of my pockets and torso as “lava”—I can't touch them.
This simple framing forces you to get your arms away from your body, gesture broadly, and embody confidence.
Slow Down to 0.75x
When we get nervous, our natural tendency is to speed up—to get to the end faster.
To fight it, think about trying to speak on 0.75x speed. It should feel almost uncomfortably slow.
Pause and breathe frequently. The best speakers take long, dramatic pauses (you’ll notice this from your studying of the best!). Use these pauses as a chance to gather yourself and slow down.
Engage the Audience
There is so much pent up energy in a room—it often manifests as tension.
You can feel it as a speaker when the audience is stagnant. There’s all this potential energy that needs to be released.
You can dramatically reduce the tension in a room by creating action and movement—by converting that potential energy to kinetic energy.
Ask a simple question, survey the audience, request they do something. Find a way to get the audience active. They'll feel more alert and you'll find a more welcoming, loose environment.
Storytelling Structure
The best public speakers don't deliver a speech—they tell a story. They take the audience on a journey.
Create a storytelling structure that is familiar and easy to follow. It's often helpful to be clear and explicit about that structure upfront.
Storytelling expert Nancy Duarte coined the “what is vs. what could be” framework.
First, describe the reality (“what is”).
Next, describe the potential future (“what could be”).
Repeat.
Finish with an ending promise (“new normal”).
This framework forces you to create contrasts to craft a captivating narrative for the audience.
Move With Purpose
Pacing around the room or stage like you're on the phone with your middle school crush isn't helpful.
Take slow, methodical, purposeful steps.
There are people who move to move—and then there are people who move with intention, who are going places.
Be the latter.
Never Self-Sabotage
When you're feeling nervous or uncertain, there's a tendency to self-sabotage.
We tell the audience we're nervous, we make fun of ourselves, we make ourselves small physically by crossing our arms and creating a barrier between us and them.
Don't do this. It's ok to be vulnerable, but there's a line.
Cut the Fear
We have a tendency to hype up our fears.
Always remember: the worst case scenario really isn't that bad. No matter how it goes, you’ll be just fine. Life will move on.
Plus, the audience is generally rooting for you! They place themselves in your shoes, so they want you to do well. They're on your side.
Conclusion
It's ok to be nervous—you're certainly not alone! But it's time to fight back.
Give these 12 strategies a shot—I guarantee they’ll make you a more effective, powerful public speaker.
Please tweet at me with your success stories leveraging these strategies. I’d love to see them!
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Today at a Glance:
Cognitive biases and logical fallacies are systematic errors in thinking and reasoning that negatively impact decision-making quality, logic, and outcomes.
Combatting them relies first and foremost on establishing a level of awareness—both academically and practically.
Part I of this series covered Fundamental Attribution Error, Naïve Realism, the Curse of Knowledge, Availability Bias, and Survivorship Bias.
Today’s Part II covers Loss Aversion, the Spotlight Effect, Heaven’s Reward Fallacy, Confirmation Bias, and Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon.
Dangerous Mental Errors
A few weeks ago, I shared Part I of a multi-part series on cognitive biases and logical fallacies.
In the opening to the piece, I commented on the fascinating dichotomy of our species:
We possess the capacity to accomplish some complex feat of technology and engineering, and subsequently fall victim to the most obviously flawed base logic. For a hyper-intelligent species, our thinking and decision-making patterns can be pretty fractured.
To be sure, many of these fractures were—for much of human history—features, not bugs. It’s logical to surmise that they were hardwired into our DNA because they made it incrementally more likely that we would survive to reproductive age.
But the facts on the ground have changed—we live in a Digital Age—and our thinking and reasoning pathways have not had enough time to “catch up” to those new realities.
So, we have to force it—we have to fight back and regain control over the quality of our decision-making and logic.
In today’s Part II of the multi-part series, I’ll cover five common cognitive biases and logical fallacies that negatively impact decision-making quality, logic, and outcomes. To really bring it to life, for each one, I’ll provide a definition, example, and perspectives on how to fight back.
Without further ado, let’s dive in…
Loss Aversion
Definition
The pain of losing something is more powerful than the pleasure of winning it.
Loss aversion was first identified by famed behavioral scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, who found that humans had a tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains.
Accordingly, people were typically willing to take actions to avoid losses that they wouldn’t have taken to seek gains.
Economists had previously assumed humans were rational actors—that $100 in losses would drive the same amount of pain as $100 in gains would create pleasure. Wrong. Humans are enigmatic creatures!
Example
Investors—professional and amateur alike—provide some of the most clear, trackable examples of loss aversion. The pain and fear of realizing a loss often leads investors to hold onto losing positions much longer than they should.
The media contributes to this bias—dunking on investors who cut ties with losing positions rather than celebrating the fact that they may have exhibited clear, rational thinking.
How to Fight Back
Avoid emotional connection to your possessions—whether they are investments, material items, or money. Attempt to distance your emotions from the decision-making process where possible.
Ask questions:
Am I being objective and rational in this decision?
Am I too connected emotionally to make a rational decision?
If you are too connected to a given decision, you may need to outsource it to an objective third-party.
The Spotlight Effect
Definition
Humans significantly overestimate the degree to which other people are noticing or observing our appearance or actions.
It causes a lot of social anxiety—it keeps people from being themselves due to an irrational fear of judgement.
We incorrectly assume that others are thinking about us. The reality: Everyone is just thinking about themselves.
Example
Imagine you go to a dinner party. You’re nervous about the party, because you know there will be a lot of smart attendees and you won’t know anyone there.
During the cocktail hour, you’re in a small group discussion and say something incorrect about the current state of domestic economic affairs. Your error is pointed out politely and the conversation moves on in a different direction.
The conversation has moved on—but you haven’t. Your brain is swirling around the moment where your error was pointed out.
Your internal dialogue turns negative: “Everyone thinks I’m an idiot. They’re all staring at me. I wish I could leave.”
For the rest of the event, you feel self-conscious and distant, worried about making another mistake.
How to Fight Back
It sounds morbid, but constantly remind yourself that no one really cares about you. No one is obsessing over your hits and misses as much as you are. Full stop.
Life is scary and complex—everyone is just trying to make their own way through it.
It's liberating to realize that most people don't really think about you…
Heaven’s Reward Fallacy
Definition
Humans tend to have an expectation that they will be be justly rewarded and praised for all of their hard work and sacrifice.
The reality is that a lot of our efforts go unnoticed, particularly early in our careers. Much of the work is thankless.
This is a dangerous error because the constant expectation of external affirmation simply breeds resentment when it doesn’t come.
Example
Early in your career—or really at any point in your career—you often have to sacrifice greatly for the benefit of the team or organization.
The expectation that these actions will have an equal and opposite reaction—in the form of promotions, compensation, or praise—is unfortunately misguided.
It leads to disappointment and resentment and is an underlying cause of a lot of employee churn and retention issues.
How to Fight Back
There are two sides to this:
As an individual, detach inputs from outputs. Design your own rewards for your hard work and sacrifice. Give yourself a break, take yourself to a nice meal, etc. Redefine rewards as being internal—the growth and progress you’ve made—vs. focusing on the external.
As an organization or team leader, become aware of the disappointment and resentment that a lack of external affirmation can create. Make a point of providing team members with clear signs of appreciation and small rewards. A little bit goes a long way!
Confirmation Bias
Definition
Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs.
We systematically ignore evidence that negates our beliefs and systematically embrace evidence that confirms our beliefs. As a result, we fail to see the world as it is—and instead see it how we want to see it.
Very common and very dangerous.
Example
Imagine you’re starting a new company.
You have a hypothesis about the way the world should work that is notably different from how it works today.
You start gathering data to assess your hypothesis:
When the new data is positive, you smile. This idea is a winner!
When the new data is negative, you frown. There must have been an error in the experiment. You’ll have to run it again.
I think I know of at least one “revolutionary” blood testing company that followed this playbook. It didn’t work out so well…
How to Fight Back
Actively seek out evidence that would challenge your beliefs. Gather information from a diverse range and spectrum of sources. Think of yourself as a scientist following the evidence to confirm or refute your hypotheses.
With big decisions, I always ask myself a few key questions:
How am I being an idiot? Harsh, but very important to understand what your potential blindspots are on a big decision.
What would I have to learn to completely change my mind on this topic?
Learn to enjoy being wrong and changing your mind. This is a unique trait of the world’s most successful people.
Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon
Definition
New awareness of something creates an illusion that it's appearing more frequently.
If you see something once and register its presence, you’re immediately more likely to notice it the next time it appears, which further reinforces your perception that it is constantly appearing in front of you.
Example
How often do you look at the clock and see 11:11? It feels like all the time, right?
This is just one simple example of the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon in action.
You see a lot of times on your clock, but only mentally register it when it reads 11:11, which further cements the illusion that you only look at the clock at 11:11.
Brands often seek to exploit the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon in their marketing campaigns in an attempt to create an illusion of scale, reach, and omnipresence. It has historically been very profitable to exploit natural human cognitive biases in marketing efforts!
How to Fight Back
When you start to feel like you are seeing something everywhere, pause, take a step back, and observe its actual frequency relative to a fair baseline.
In the harmless example of the clock, make a note every time you look at the clock and it isn’t 11:11.
Conclusion
So to recap Part II of the mental errors series:
Loss Aversion: Humans tend to prefer avoiding losses vs. achieving gains. Fight back through detaching emotions from possessions.
Spotlight Effect: Humans significantly overestimate the degree to which other people are noticing or observing our appearance or actions. Fight back by remembering that no one really cares about you.
Heaven’s Reward Fallacy: Humans tend to have an expectation that they will be be justly rewarded and praised for all of their hard work and sacrifice. Fight back by creating your own internal rewards.
Confirmation Bias: Humans have a tendency to see and interpret information in a manner that supports previously held beliefs. Fight back by being willing to change your mind and identifying what learnings would cause that change.
Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon: New awareness of something creates an illusion that it's appearing more frequently. Fight back by pausing to observe the actual frequency of an event.
I hope you find this series as valuable as I do.
I encourage you to work through it slowly—take the time to think deeply on each item. Your decision-making consistency, logic, and outcome quality will improve as a result.
Where It Happens Podcast
Elon's Twitter Takeover and The Future of Social Media with Sriram Krishnan
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The secret to achieving accelerated growth and progress
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The harsh truth that changed my life (and may change yours)
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Today at a Glance:
Cognitive biases are systematic errors in thinking that negatively impact decision-making quality and outcomes.
Combatting them relies first and foremost on establishing a level of awareness of the biases—both academically and practically.
Today’s deep dive covers five common cognitive biases that derail decision-making: Fundamental Attribution Error, Naïve Realism, the Curse of Knowledge, Availability Bias, and Survivorship Bias.
Dangerous Mental Errors
Humans are fascinating creatures.
We possess the capacity to accomplish some complex feat of technology and engineering, and subsequently fall victim to the most obviously flawed base logic. For a hyper-intelligent species, our thinking and decision-making patterns can be pretty fractured.
Many of these fractures fall into the category of cognitive biases—systematic errors in thinking that negatively impact decision-making quality and outcomes.
Importantly, these are typically subconscious, automatic errors. We are wired to take shortcuts in our decision-making—to be more efficient and effective in the wild—but shortcuts are a double-edged sword. Speed and efficiency can be great, but when we systematically misinterpret the data, signal, and information from the world around us, it dramatically impacts the consistency and rationality of our decisions.
Fortunately, we can fight back and regain—at least a modicum of—control over the quality of our decision-making.
In today’s piece, I’ll cover five common cognitive biases that derail decision-making. For each, I’ll provide a definition, example, and perspectives on how to fight back.
This will be Part I of a multi-part series on cognitive biases and logical fallacies—as it’s a topic that deeply impacts all of our careers and lives. Developing an awareness of these errors—and a plan to combat them—will give you a legitimate competitive advantage in all of your pursuits.
Let’s dive in…
Fundamental Attribution Error
Definition
Fundamental Attribution Error is the human tendency to hold others accountable while giving ourselves a break.
It says that humans tend to:
Attribute someone else's actions to their character—and not to their situation or context.
Attribute our actions to our situation and context—and not to our character.
In short: We cut ourselves a break, but hold others accountable.
Why do we do this? Well, as with many of the biases we will cover, it likely developed as a heuristic—a problem-solving or decision-making shortcut—in this case for simplifying the process and judgement around new human relationships.
From an evolutionary perspective, quickly attributing negative actions to character—rather than situation or context—may have kept you alive, as you’d be more likely to avoid that individual in future interactions to play it safe.
But in a modern context, it can create real problems—a failure to recognize or empathize with the context and situational factors impacting others is at the core of many societal and organizational issues.
Example
The workplace is a common breeding ground for Fundamental Attribution Error.
It’s easy to form perspectives on the character of colleagues and bosses based on small pieces of incomplete information.
If a colleague arrives late for work, they’re just lazy, right?
This is clearly a flawed line of thinking, as there are numerous factors that could have contributed to your colleague’s lateness.
The reality is that, in these instances, you are using limited information to create an overall picture of an individual. You’re seeing one square of a map and believing you know the map in its entirety.
How to Fight Back
You’ll never completely eliminate Fundamental Attribution Error, but you can limit its impact.
The first step is always awareness—keep it in mind, particularly as you build a body of experiences with new colleagues or acquaintances. This is when it’s most likely to strike.
Force yourself to slow down and evaluate the potential circumstances or situational factors that may be influencing an individual’s actions or behaviors.
You won’t always have the time to do so—shortcuts are often necessary and helpful—but with longer-term or important relationships, it’s worth the extra effort. You’ll build deeper, more trusting personal and professional bonds.
Naïve Realism
Definition
Naïve Realism is part of a broader category of so-called “egocentric biases” that are grounded in the reality that humans generally think very highly of themselves.
Specifically, Naïve Realism has two core pillars:
We believe that we see the world with perfect, accurate objectivity.
We assume that people who disagree with us must be ignorant, uninformed, biased, or stupid.
It often leads to a dangerous “bias blind spot”—a phenomenon in which we accurately identify cognitive biases in others, but are unable to identify them in ourselves.
Example
The most famous example of Naïve Realism is an experiment involving a highly-contested Dartmouth vs. Princeton football game.
After the game, fans of each side were asked to watch the film of the game and evaluate the performance of each team. Interestingly, depending on which team they supported, they saw a very different game.
Dartmouth fans perceived the number of Princeton infractions as much higher; Princeton fans perceived the number of Dartmouth infractions as much higher.
The groups were incapable of objectivity, despite vocalizing their objectivity to the researchers prior to the experiment.
They watched the same game, but saw a very different one.
How to Fight Back
Naïve Realism is a base level bias, so fighting back starts with base awareness and acceptance of our own flaws and biases.
A few other ideas:
Surround yourself with people who think differently than you. Force the issue.
Learn to embrace being wrong. It’s a common trait of highly-successful people, as being wrong means you are getting closer to the truth.
Question your own beliefs. Always ask what assumptions or experiences have contributed to those beliefs.
Fighting back against Naïve Realism isn’t easy, but it’s so damn important.
The Curse of Knowledge
Definition
Experts—or generally intelligent people—make the flawed assumption that others have the same background and knowledge on a topic as they do.
It makes them unable to teach or lead in an effective manner for those still coming up the learning curve. They are literally “cursed” with knowledge that prevents them from teaching or managing effectively.
The Curse of Knowledge is commonly seen with business leaders, professors, or “experts” of specific fields. They incorrectly assume the audience has a baseline level of knowledge on a given topic. It leads to frustration and cultural tension on both sides of the teacher-student relationship.
Example
Your new marketing manager assumes you—a recent college graduate—understand the complexities of search engine optimization and grows increasingly frustrated as it becomes clear that you are new to the subject matter and are unable to keep up with her on the plan.
The manager’s expertise at SEO makes her completely incapable of teaching.
How to Fight Back
As the teacher, always be aware of the basis of your understanding of a topic. If it’s based on years of accumulated expertise, you have to bring others up the learning curve prior to building upon it.
The ELI5 (“Explain It To Me Like I’m 5”) rule works well—assume you’re teaching the topic to a 5-year-old until proven otherwise. Leverage the Feynman Technique!
As a student, communicate openly on the gaps in your foundational understanding on a more advanced topic. If it’s in a group setting, chances are that someone else is feeling the same way and is just afraid to say it!
Availability Bias
Definition
Humans love their shortcuts.
We evaluate situations based on the most readily available data, which tends to be what can be immediately recalled from memory. Our minds perceive what can be immediately recalled as being of the utmost importance. We give ourselves too much credit.
Availability Bias is the tendency to massively overweight recent and new information in formulating opinions or making decisions.
Example
The best example of Availability Bias is the impact of the news cycle on our opinions, thinking, and decisions. Its persistent negativity cements a belief that the world is a dark, doomed place.
When exposed to consistent news stories about negative events, humans significantly overestimate the actual frequency and likelihood of these events taking place.
Our irrational fear of insanely low probability events—like terrorist attacks, shark attacks, plane crashes, and child abductions—is a clear example of this in action.
How to Fight Back
There are two key ways to fight Availability Bias:
Focus on base rates—the actual prevalence of an event or feature in a given sample. In the example of shark attacks, compare the number of shark attacks globally to the number of people who went in the ocean. Slow down and consider the actual numbers.
Learn to turn off the news. Paradoxically, watching more news might make you less well-informed about the world around you.
There are other tactics and strategies, but these two will get you a long way.
Survivorship Bias
Definition
We’ve all heard the phrase: History is written by the victors.
We all love studying victors—the epic stories of success, wealth, and fame. But unfortunately, studying and learning from "survivors”—while systematically ignoring "casualties”—creates material distortions in our conclusions.
Namely, we overestimate the base odds of success because we only read about successes.
Example
One of the famous examples of survivorship bias comes from World War II.
The U.S. wanted to add reinforcement armor to specific areas of its planes. Analysts plotted the bullet holes and damage on returning bombers, deciding the tail, body, and wings needed reinforcement.
But a young statistician named Abraham Wald noted that this would be a tragic mistake. By only plotting data on the planes that returned, they were systematically missing data on a critical, informative subset—the planes that were damaged and unable to return.
The "seen" planes had sustained damage that was survivable. The "unseen" planes had sustained damage that was not. Wald concluded that armor should be added to the unharmed regions of the survivors. Where the survivors were unharmed is where the planes were most vulnerable.
Based on his observation, the military reinforced the engine and other vulnerable parts, significantly improving the safety of the crews during combat. Wald had identified the survivorship bias and avoided its wrath.
How to Fight Back
Fighting back against Survivorship Bias involves two critical approaches:
Recognize the potential for “hidden” or “silent” evidence. What might you have learned from the casualties that is masked by the lack of data on them?
Focus on the base rates of success or failure—the underlying percentage of a population that have that given outcome.
Develop a keen awareness of the potential for missing evidence and its impact on your judgement of the probability of success.
Remember: For every entrepreneur who took out a second mortgage on their house and then became a billionaire, there are 100 who did the same and went bankrupt…
Conclusion
So to recap Part I of the mental errors series:
Fundamental Attribution Error: We cut ourselves a break, but hold others accountable. Fight back by slowing down, recognizing, and empathizing with the situational and contextual factors that may impact others.
Naïve Realism: We believe that we see the world with perfect, accurate objectivity and we assume that people who disagree with us must be ignorant, uninformed, biased, or stupid. Fight back by surrounding yourself with people with different beliefs and embracing being wrong.
The Curse of Knowledge: Experts make the flawed assumption that others have the same background and knowledge on a topic as they do. It makes them unable to teach or lead in an effective manner for those still coming up the learning curve. Fight back as a teacher by developing an awareness for the basis of your knowledge on a topic; fight back as a student by forcing that awareness in the teacher.
Availability Bias: We evaluate situations based on the most readily available data, which tends to be what can be immediately recalled from memory. Fight back by focusing on base rates of low probability events and turning off the news.
Survivorship Bias: Studying "survivors” and systematically ignoring "casualties” creates material distortions in our conclusions. Namely, we overestimate the base odds of success because we only read about successes. Fight back by focusing on base rates of success and recognizing the potential for silent evidence.
I hope you find this series as valuable as I do. I encourage you to work through it slowly—take the time to think deeply on each item. Your decision-making consistency and quality will improve as a result.
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Today at a Glance:
Economic sanctions fall into the category of economic statecraft—the use of financial levers to drive desired geopolitical outcomes. They can be broadly defined as any planned commercial or financial penalties applied by one or more countries on another country, group, organization, or individual.
The goals of the sanctions include constraining cross-border money flows that are necessary for financing a long-term war effort, punishing the oligarchs who support Putin and his war efforts, depleting Russia’s financial reserves, and creating political unrest within Russia that puts Putin under pressure.
While the base package of sanctions was considered standard, the weekend announcements of a cutoff from SWIFT and a Central Bank reserve freeze is potentially much more damaging to Russia and Putin.
A Primer on SWIFT & Sanctions
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” — Vladimir Lenin
The world is in a dramatically different state since you last received a deep-dive piece from me just one week ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has tragically plunged countless lives into chaos and encouragingly rallied much of the world to support the besieged Ukrainians. In the vein of support, I will be donating the proceeds from today’s newsletter to UNICEF: Protect Children in Ukraine.
The situation is an intensely complicated one. There are two wars being waged here: a military war and an economic war.
Today, I’d like to talk about that economic war and provide a simple breakdown of the most important weapons involved. I hope this piece makes you feel more well-informed in the days and weeks ahead.
A Brief History of Sanctions
Economic sanctions have become a staple of modern statecraft.
Economic sanctions fall into the category of economic statecraft—the use of financial levers to drive desired geopolitical outcomes. They can be broadly defined as any planned commercial or financial penalties applied by one or more countries on another country, group, organization, or individual.
They are not new.
Most historians agree that the first formal economic sanctions were in 432 B.C., when Athens restricted merchants from a rival city-state called Megara from participating in its marketplaces. The action choked off economic activity in Megara—the sanctions were highly-effective.
Fast forward several millennia to World War I and economic sanctions had become a core tool in the geopolitical toolkit. A prolonged naval blockade by the Allies was used to restrict the flow of goods to Germany and the other Central Powers.
As the 20th century progressed, sanctions were used time and again—the industrial logic was that their potential dire impact on an economy would cause would-be aggressors to think twice before taking military action.
Unfortunately, this didn’t take into account the human impact of the collateral damage of these sanctions, which was often devastating.
In the post-9/11 world, the increased awareness of this human impact gave rise to so-called “targeted” sanctions—sanctions specifically designed to mitigate collateral damage and have precise impact. If general sanctions had been a shotgun blast historically, targeted sanctions were designed to be a sniper shot.
This is largely where we are today and how we got here. The U.S. and Western world continue to make heavy use of sanctions due to broad global reliance on the dollar for trade and commerce.
With that history in mind, let’s turn to our present situation…
The Russia Sanctions
Over the weeks preceding Russia’s formal invasion of Ukraine, as its military aspirations became increasingly well-understood, the U.S. and Western world began preparing its financial response.
There are several interconnected goals of the sanctions package here:
Constrain cross-border money flows that are necessary for financing a long-term war effort.
Punish the oligarchs who support Putin and his war efforts, many of whom live and work outside of Russia.
Deplete Russia’s financial reserves (reduce its cushion).
Create political unrest within Russia that puts Putin under pressure.
Increase the cost—actual and perceived—of an international company doing business in Russia.
I would segment the potential response into two core tiers:
Tier I: Sanctions on Russian banks, companies, and oligarchs.
Tier II: A cutoff from SWIFT and Central Bank reserve freeze.
Tier I was table-stakes—effectively the standard operating procedure of the West in such a situation. Tier II was considered much less likely, with many media outlets calling the cutoff from SWIFT the economic “nuclear button” in this situation.
After the invasion began, when it became clear that Putin planned to press forward, the U.S. and EU quickly progressed from Tier I to Tier II. Over the weekend, plans were announced to cut many Russian banks off from the SWIFT system and freeze Russia’s access to foreign currency reserves held in the West.
Let’s talk about what this all means and why it’s so impactful…
SWIFT
SWIFT is short for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. It’s a global cooperative of financial institutions based in Belgium.
SWIFT was formed in 1973 when 239 banks from 15 countries came together to establish a way to handle cross-border payments. Today, SWIFT connects more than 11,000 financial institutions across 200+ countries.
SWIFT doesn’t actually do any funds transfer or holding of funds, but it’s a critical part of the communication infrastructure that enables cross-border money flows. The best way to think about SWIFT is like a simple email or messaging collaboration system enabling secure messages across its member banks—like a sort of Slack for international banks.
SWIFT sees an average of 40 million messages a day—including around orders, payment confirmations, FX exchanges, and trades. These messages provide a form of reliable, safe communication for international banks to execute transactions with one another.
SWIFT is a critical part of the global financial system’s plumbing, if you will.
While not a political organization, its importance to global flows of capital means SWIFT is often looked at as a geopolitical tool as part of sanctions packages. Cutting off a nation’s banks from SWIFT access restricts flows into and out of that nation, generally resulting in severe economic pain.
This action is not without precedent. It first happened in 2012 with the sanctions package on Iran in retaliation for its nuclear program. It was again looked at in 2013-14 in response to Russia’s actions in Crimea.
Noah Smith had a great breakdown of the economic impact of a cutoff:
If a Russian bank gets booted from SWIFT, it immediately becomes a less desirable place to keep one’s money. This could provoke runs on Russian banks…It could also make it much harder for Russia to pay for its imports. If you buy, say, an oil drilling machine from Germany, you need to pay for that machine in Euros. A Russian company generally doesn’t have a bunch of euros sitting around, so it’ll have to swap some of its rubles for euros. It will generally do that via a Russian bank. But if Russian banks are cut off from SWIFT, they might not have any secure way to message the banks who have euros in order to make the swap; this makes it hard for the Russian company to buy the German machine.
This difficulty will manifest as a fall in the value of the ruble, the Russian currency…A weak ruble will make it hard for Russian companies to buy imports, and it’ll also make it even harder for rich Russians to spend their money abroad.
The challenge is that it is a real double-edged sword. Russia is a large economy with tentacles that reach everywhere. It is a key energy supplier to Europe and the world—including one of the largest oil exporters to the U.S. It is also an exporter of materials critical to the manufacturing of jet engines, semiconductors, cars, electronics, and fertilizers.
As such, the SWIFT cutoffs have a major carveout—messages are still allowed for anything related to energy. This is important, as it’s the largest export from Russia and a major engine of their economy.
Furthermore, Russia has been building an in-house SWIFT alternative since 2014—the last time SWIFT cutoff was threatened—which may mean they are able to temper some of the impact a cutoff would have on its economy.
It’s also worth considering that a cutoff from SWIFT may have longer-term second-order effects on Bitcoin and non-fiat currencies. The base logic: Russia may seek to circumvent the impact of the restrictions via a combination of its in-house system and a push away from the USD-reserve currency hegemony.
Reserve Freeze
In the days before the invasion, it was widely reported that Putin had prepared for this day by building a war chest of financial reserves to insulate Russia from the disruption that Western sanctions may impose on the economy.
The approximate total (including gold): $640 billion.
This chart shows how the reserves have been amassed since their last big dip—which was incidentally when they were used to defray the impact of the last invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
These reserves are an important mechanism for stabilizing his domestic economy and currency. In very simple terms, they can be used to purchase currency or assets on the open market in order to prevent a collapse.
The problem: Much of that reserve base is exposed, with almost half being held in foreign banks. Over the weekend, the U.S. and EU announced a plan to expose this weakness, stating an intention to freeze the reserve assets of the Russian Central Bank that are held in Western banks.
Suddenly, that cushion isn’t so comfortable anymore.
A currency collapse is both technical and psychological. Public awareness of the inability of the Central Bank to protect the domestic currency compounds the technical and is likely to lead to a downward spiral.
As you can see in the chart above, it already appears to be having the desired impact…
This is a striking action by the U.S. and EU and one that is likely to have material consequences on the situation and dynamics. It certainly backs Putin into a tighter corner—which may be a positive or a negative depending on how he responds from here.
Conclusion
The explanations provided in this piece are intended to be a primer. In the days and weeks ahead, there will be a lot of talk about SWIFT, reserve freezes, sanctions, and their role in the response to Russia’s actions.
I hope this short breakdown makes you feel more knowledgeable on the topics.
If you are interested in donating to support the cause, I highly recommend you consider UNICEF: Protect Children in Ukraine. I will be donating the proceeds from today’s newsletter to this cause. My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by this tragic situation.
Note: This is a dynamic situation with breaking news hitting the wires with increasing frequency. I will do my best to continue to update this piece with anything of note. For more on the subject, I highly recommend reviewing my sources here, here, and here.
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Today at a Glance:
“The young man knows the rules, but the old man knows the exceptions.” - Oliver Wendall Holmes, Sr.
As children, we are taught to live by an ever-expanding set of rules. The rules keep us safe. They limit our downside during a fragile period of our lives. They also limit our upside, as they create artificial constraints on our movement and collisions as we travel through the universe.
Rules are good—but just like the old man in the quote above, you have to know when to bend and break them.
15 Life Rules Worth Breaking
I’d like to open with one of my favorite quotes of all time:
“The young man knows the rules, but the old man knows the exceptions.” - Oliver Wendall Holmes, Sr.
Read that again.
So much wisdom contained in such a short, concise statement.
As children, we are taught to live by an ever-expanding set of rules. This is (mostly) good—it gives us a concrete, stable way to view the increasingly complex, dynamic world that we have entered.
The rules keep us safe. They limit our downside during a fragile period of our lives.
The problem? They also limit our upside, as they create artificial constraints on our movement and collisions as we travel through the universe. They force us to walk down a narrow path with bumpers on both sides—they eliminate the flashes of serendipity, the asymmetries that define the lives of the greatest among us.
Rules may limit your risk, but they also limit your reward.
Rules are good—but if you’re looking to play asymmetric games—those with low downside and uncapped upside—you have to know when to bend and break them.
Here are 15 life rules worth breaking:
Wait for the Perfect Moment
This rule has paralyzed would-be action-takers for generations.
The reality: there is no such thing as the perfect moment.
Sometimes you just have to open the door, jump out of the plane, and hope you packed the parachute tight.
You Have to Work Hard to Succeed
Hard work is important—but it's relative, not absolute.
In the Digital Age—when creative and inspired work stands out and is rewarded—what you work on is more important than how hard you work.
Play your game, not theirs. You’ll play it better.
Become an Expert, Not a Generalist
Society celebrates experts in any given field.
But as David Epstein finds in Range, many experts succeed because of the range of pursuits that preceded their main endeavor.
Become a polymath. Generalize first, specialize later.
Let Things Play Out
This isn't a movie that you're watching on your TV.
You are not a passive observer of your own life. There are times to sit back, and there are times to push.
Learn to identify the difference and never be afraid to provide a little push.
Don't Ask Too Many Questions
Children are born with an insatiable curiosity, but somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking questions.
The most successful people in the world never listened—they broke this rule.
Ask questions. Be curious. Be interested.
If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It
Complacency will always lead you down a bad path.
Just because something isn't broken, doesn't mean it can't be improved.
Continuous improvement is the way. Focus on small, incremental improvements—day in, day out.
Get a Stable Job
This might have been a good rule in the Industrial Age, but its foundation is crumbling in the Digital Age.
The way we work is fundamentally changing—opportunities for creative, unstructured career paths are endless.
Find your Zone of Genius and operate in it.
Stay in Your Lane
A rule of the fixed, stagnant, and hierarchical—often used to keep employees in line.
It's great to double down on your strengths, but never let external pressures prevent you from expanding your domains.
Growth mindsets rule the world.
Think Through Every Big Decision
We are told to methodically consider the pros and cons of every big decision in our lives.
As a result, many of us have decision paralysis.
With big decisions, you're actually better off making them fast—let your gut and instincts guide you.
Don't Talk to Strangers
A classic we are told as children—the residue of which carries into adulthood for far too many.
When we open up to those around us, we stimulate, learn, and grow.
"There are no strangers here; Only friends you haven't yet met." — William Butler Yeats
Get a Four-Year Degree
For decades we told children they had to attend a traditional four-year college, or else they were a failure.
That is a lie—and we loaded a generation with student debt because of it.
Four-year degrees make sense for many, but not for all.
Follow YOUR path.
Save Now to Enjoy Later
All mainstream financial advice tells you one thing: save now to enjoy later.
I agree, with a caveat...
You have to enjoy the prime of your life! Now and then, it's ok to save a bit less to go to that concert with your friends.
Find your balance.
Have a Plan & Stick to It
It's important to have a plan.
But as Mike Tyson famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Plans have to be dynamic—and punch-proof! You'll only go as far as your ability to absorb and pivot on the fly.
Don't Be Self-Promotional
It's easy to condemn self-promotion when you're at the top.
But when you're first starting out, you may be the only one in a position to promote.
When you put in the work, energy and love, share it with the world! Genuine pride is infectious.
Be Realistic
It's not up to anyone else to decide what is possible for you or your life.
Are there constraints outside of your control? Sure. Is that a reason to settle? Hell no.
As Will Smith says in Pursuit of Happyness: "If you want something, go get it. Period."
There you have it: 15 life rules worth breaking.
I’d love to hear from you. What common rules am I missing? Comment below!
If you enjoyed this, consider sharing it with your network so I can continue to grow this amazing curiosity tribe. Thank you for joining me on the journey!
Until next time, as always, stay curious, friends!
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Listen now | 20+ rules of thumb to simplify decisions and drive better outcomes
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Today at a Glance:
Learning is a meta-skill—arguably the most important meta-skill.
School taught us many things, but unfortunately, how to learn was not one of them.
The retention framework I use involves five steps: (1) Inspired Consumption; (2) Unstructured Note-Taking; (3) Consolidation; (4) Analogize; and (5) Idea Exercise. The structure is sequential, but its practice is often dynamic & iterative.
Spaced Repetition is the most formal—and powerful—idea exercise method. It’s a method in which information is consumed at increasing intervals until it's committed to long-term memory. It leverages cognitive science—the way our brains work to convert short-term to long-term memory—to help you retain newly-consumed information.
How to Retain What You Learn
Learning is a meta-skill—arguably the most important meta-skill.
School taught us many things, but unfortunately, how to learn was not one of them.
Learning is how we adapt to our changing environments, circumstances, and situations. Learning allows us to create new “maps”—and edit old ones—in order to navigate the dynamic, highly-complex world with confidence.
Growth is fundamentally driven by the long-term accumulation and compounding of usable learning. We accumulate and compound this learning through consumption and retention. Consumption is the inputs—what comes in. Retention is what remains after any leakage.
Imagine your brain like a bathtub.
The faucet is the entrance, the drain is the exit. Everything you research and consume flows in through the faucet. Everything you forget flows out through the drain.
I’ve written a lot about the faucet in the past—here and here most recently—but I’ve never talked about the drain.
Let’s fix that today—let’s talk about learning retention.
Learning from The Matrix
I love The Matrix. It’s not just sci-fi, there is a lot we can draw from it about learning and retention.
Bear with me…
In one of the early scenes of the first film, Keanu Reeves’ character—Neo—is plugged into the system and has a program uploaded into his brain. He has a moment of shocked revelation where he looks up and says, “I know kung fu.” He proceeds to demonstrate his new mastery in a virtual sparring room. Most importantly, Neo never forgets this new skill.
To be sure, this isn’t that crazy an idea. Our brains are just software. When we learn, we are updating that software. But in the real world, though, our software is flawed and buggy—we forget important things or overwrite old data all the time.
Our best bet? Develop a strategy for retention that is grounded in science. An approach to retention that is as integrated and comprehensive as our approach to learning. We may not become Neo, but we can become more Neo-like.
The Retention Framework
Here's a tactical framework for improving your retention…
The retention framework I use involves five steps:
Inspired Consumption
Unstructured Note-Taking
Consolidation
Analogize
Idea Exercise
The structure is sequential, but its practice is often dynamic & iterative.
Let's walk through each of the steps...
Step 1: Inspired Consumption
Retention starts with consumption.
I bucket consumption into two types:
Forced: Compelled, either internally or externally.
Inspired: Driven entirely by your internal inspirations.
If you've ever been in school, you know what forced consumption looks like. Forced consumption is the book you're told to read, despite the topic being of zero interest to you. It's the foundation of much of the traditional education system—yet another reason why so many of us are bad at learning retention!
Inspired consumption is when you feel genuinely pulled to consume—when you enjoy the consumption process.
It requires the willingness to put ego aside and "quit” more books (or content) when that genuine inspiration fades.
Inspired consumption is important for retention for two key reasons.
Inspiration is a precursor to flow. More flow state, more retention.
Inspiration fuels engagement. Engage with the content, retain the content.
Inspired consumption is the foundation of retention.
Step 2: Unstructured Note-Taking
When you start consuming, you should have a note-taking system in front of you.
Sahil Note: I use Notion for my note taking, but there are probably 10 other options out there (and I’m currently evaluating Obsidian as another option for more networked notes). The old fashioned way—pen and paper—works too, with the caveat that searchable notes are ideal in my opinion.
On the first pass through the material, keep your notes as unstructured and free-flowing as possible.
What to take note of:
Foundation-building ideas
Novel insights
Things that made you go “hmmm” or “wow!”
Connections you identified to other topics
Questions or confusion
Strong reactions you had to new information
Remember: This first pass of notes is intended to be unstructured. The simple act of writing helps ideas stick.
Step 3: Consolidation
Zoom out and review your unstructured notes.
What are the most interesting, novel insights or ideas? What are the most confusing?
Consolidation is where you re-consume content with a specific focus on building structure around your notes in these particular areas.
If unstructured note-taking created a bunch of dots, consolidation is where you start connecting them.
It doesn't have to be perfect, but you should start to form a more refined picture as you re-consume the content for this purpose.
Consolidation is when knowledge begins to stick.
Step 4: Analogize
Analogizing is the most effective—and least well-known—retention tool.
This is where you take your newly-learned information and place it within your broader mental maps. You make clear comparisons and connections between newly-learned and existing information.
Here's a real example from my writing to illustrate how this works:
I did a bunch of research on Morris Chang and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company for a piece. During my consolidation, it struck me that TSMC's novel pure-play chip manufacturer model had enabled independent chip designers to start their own companies.
As I started the process of analogizing, I searched for a connection point—something to tie this newly-learned information to some existing information in my brain.
Then, it hit me: this looked very similar to what Shopify had done in creating infrastructure that enabled independent players to sell online.
I had created context for the new learning within my broader mental map—it would stick.
Sahil Note: Incidentally, this came full circle ~1 year later, when I interviewed Harley Finklestein—the President of Shopify—for an upcoming episode of Where It Happens. I was able to talk about this connection with him and get his perspectives on the analogy. Damn, I love my job…
Step 5: Idea Exercise
Think of the new idea as a muscle—if left on its own, it will atrophy. You have to exercise it—early and often.
How?
Here are a few ideas:
Bring it up in conversations
Talk about it with a friend
Try to teach it to someone
Spaced Repetition
If you exercise the idea, it will stick and grow.
Spaced Repetition is the most formal—and powerful—idea exercise method, so let’s do a deeper dive into it.
Spaced Repetition - The History & Science
Spaced Repetition is a scientifically-proven method for enhanced retention. It’s a method in which information is consumed at increasing intervals until it's committed to long-term memory. It leverages cognitive science—the way our brains work to convert short-term to long-term memory—to help you retain newly-consumed information.
The science behind it is fascinating.
Hermann Ebbinghaus—a German psychologist—was the first to identify its effect on retention. In 1885, he published Memory: A Contribution to Experimental Psychology, which became a groundbreaking work for the field.
In this work, Ebbinghaus discussed his most famous finding: the Ebbinghaus Forgetting Curve (“EFC” for short).
The EFC maps the exponential loss of newly-learned information—it's sharp in the first 20 minutes, significant through an hour, and then levels off after a day.
Ebbinghaus observed that each time the newly-learned information was reviewed, the EFC was essentially "reset" at the starting point, but with a slower decay curve.
This is important!
Spaced Repetitions had the effect of flattening the memory retention decay curve.
Understanding the science is helpful, but you need to put Spaced Repetition into action to adapt its use case for your purposes.
Spaced Repetition - Putting It Into Action
Here's how it works:
Let's say you're trying to learn some facts about Apple—its history, business segments, financial performance, etc.
If this was for a college exam, you'd probably do this the "old fashioned way”—down some espresso, cram it into your mind, and hope you remember it for the test the next day. But you're not in college anymore—you want this learning for life, not for some one-off exam. You want this to stick.
So instead of the old way, you go with the new way—Spaced Repetition.
You first consume the new information at 8am. Then you start “repetitions” where you recite back learnings and fill gaps:
Repetition 1: 9am (1 hr later)
Repetition 2: 12pm (3 hrs later)
Repetition 3: 6pm (6 hrs later)
Repetition 4: 6am (12 hrs later)
and so on at increasing intervals...
Why does this work?
In simple terms, you can think of your brain as a muscle—each repetition is a "flex" of that muscle. By steadily increasing the intervals, you are pushing the muscle with steadily more challenging loads. You're forcing the retention muscle to grow.
As for where this fits into the process, I plug it directly into my retention framework as part of "idea exercise”—I think this is where it fits in most effectively.
Conclusion
It’s not enough to simply learn more—you have to retain more of what you learn.
So to recap, my framework for better retention:
Inspired Consumption: Inspired consumption is when you feel genuinely pulled to consume—when you enjoy the consumption process. Put ego aside and "quit” more books (or content) when that genuine inspiration fades.
Unstructured Note-Taking: Take unstructured notes of novel insights, key ideas, or things that caused a reaction.
Consolidation: Zoom out and consolidate your unstructured notes across key themes, insights, or ideas.
Analogize: Take your newly-learned information and place it within your broader mental maps. Make clear comparisons and connections between newly-learned and existing information.
Idea Exercise: Use Spaced Repetition and other methods to exercise your new learnings and prevent atrophy.
Give this framework a shot and let me know how it works for you!
Where It Happens Podcast
How to Build Hype with Matteo Franceschetti
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Welcome to the 600 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 66,096 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
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Today at a Glance:
First principles thinking is the most powerful framework for deconstructing complex problems, generating creative solutions, and driving non-linear outcomes.
A first principle is a basic, foundational assumption—one that cannot be deduced or broken down any further. In simple terms, think of first principles as foundational truths that do not require any additional assumptions.
As a simple rule of thumb: when speed and efficiency are critical, use reasoning by analogy; when creativity and innovation are required, use first principles thinking.
To leverage first principles thinking, use Socratic Questioning to drill down to the foundational truths of a problem. Once you uncover them, you can begin to slowly build up to a more creative, imaginative solution.
First Principles Thinking
The most successful entrepreneurs, investors, and scientists in the world often reference first principles thinking as having been critical to their success.
Run a simple Google search of the term and you’ll find countless articles, videos, and quotes from an array of billionaires and Nobel Prize winners who all point to the importance of first principles thinking.
Accordingly, first principles thinking has become something of a buzz-phrase—often talked about, yet rarely understood (let alone employed effectively).
In this post, I’d like to provide a simple, intuitive breakdown of first principles thinking: what it is, how it works, when to use it, and how to leverage it in your problem solving journey.
Introduction to First Principles
First principles thinking is the most powerful framework for deconstructing complex problems, generating creative solutions, and driving non-linear outcomes.
Let’s start with the basics: what is a first principle?
Aristotle—the Ancient Greek philosopher, polymath, and student of Plato—defined a first principle as "the first basis from which a thing is known."
A first principle is a basic, foundational assumption—one that cannot be deduced or broken down any further. In simple terms, think of first principles as foundational truths that do not require any additional assumptions.
They are the base layer—the atomic unit.
First principles thinking—sometimes referred to as "reasoning from first principles”—is a problem-solving and innovation framework that requires you to deconstruct a complex problem down to these most foundational elements.
The aim: to ground yourself in the foundational truths and build up from there.
Elon Musk explained this in a 2013 interview:
“First principles is kind of a physics way of looking at the world. You boil things down to the most fundamental truths and say, ‘What are we sure is true?’ … and then reason up from there.”
This method runs in contrast to our natural wiring.
When we encounter challenging problems, our tendency is to rely on base level assumptions we have been told are true (or we believe to be true). Why? It’s quick and easy to do.
This is called "reasoning by analogy”—it leads to solutions that are much like something else. Slight modifications or iterations on an existing solution. The unimaginative, linear solutions that closely resemble what has been done before.
To be sure, it can be very useful when speed is the priority. Moving fast has its advantages at times—like if our ancestors were trying to avoid being eaten by a lion! But reasoning by analogy falls short when dealing with complex problems requiring creative, imaginative solutions.
Imagine the solution to a problem as a house:
The foundation of the house is the assumptions upon which the ultimate solution will rest.
If it's a shoddy, quickly-built foundation, the house may collapse. Even if it remains standing, the architect and builder will know that they are limited in what they can build on top of it.
If it's a sturdy, deliberately-built foundation, the house will thrive. The architect and builder can get creative with what they build on top of it, as they know the base is strong.
First principles form that sturdy, deliberately-built foundation for the house.
Elon Musk & SpaceX
To bring this to life, let's look at a classic example of first principles thinking in action: Elon Musk & SpaceX.
First off, what was the problem?
Sending a rocket to Mars to begin the process of making humans an interplanetary species. Yes, I think that meets the bar of being complex…
As he began digging in to develop a solution, Elon Musk quickly discovered the cost of buying a rocket was astronomical (bad pun intended)—$65 million. It was not only financially untenable—SpaceX was a startup at the time—it was also grounded in assumptions of how rockets have always been built and what they should cost.
Taking stock on the situation:
Complex Problem ✅
Creativity > Speed ✅
So he turned to first principles thinking:
“Physics teaches you to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. So I said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”
Based on this upfront analysis, SpaceX began building its own rockets and software systems that would dramatically alter the future of the space economy.
Rather than accepting the established "truths" about the cost of a rocket, Musk grounded his problem solving in first principles.
Today, SpaceX rockets are doing extraordinary things at a fraction of the historical cost. Furthermore, Elon Musk and SpaceX shattered the deeply-engrained beliefs about the costs of doing business in space, which has unlocked hundreds of other entrepreneurs and companies to build new, innovative solutions for the future.
The dreams of a Mars voyage in our lifetimes are alive and well…
How to Use First Principles Thinking
Ok, now that we have covered the theory, let’s get into the practice. How can YOU leverage first principles thinking to create better outcomes?
First—and most importantly—determine if first principles thinking is necessary for your given problem, or if reasoning by analogy is a better fit.
As a simple rule of thumb:
For speed/efficiency—reasoning by analogy
For creativity/innovation—first principles thinking
Assuming first principles thinking is the appropriate path, start by asking questions to drill down to the core of the problem at hand. Shane Parrish calls this "Socratic Questioning”—think of it as a methodical process of resurfacing the insatiably curious child inside you.
Here are a few key questions to get you started:
What is the problem I am trying to solve? We often waste time and energy trying to solve the "wrong" problem. Identify the "right" problem.
What do I know to be true about this problem? Write down everything you know about the problem (and its previously attempted solutions).
Why do I believe these "truths" to be true? How do I know they are true? Identify the source of your beliefs on the problem. Be ruthless in evaluating their integrity and validity.
How can I support these beliefs? Is there real evidence to support them? Seek out hard, tangible evidence that proves these beliefs to be true. If you cannot find it, or if the sources are of questionable integrity, you have learned something valuable about your beliefs.
Are my emotions clouding my judgment and reasoning? When emotions drive our thoughts and decisions, we rarely see good outcomes. Remove emotions from the process.
What alternative beliefs or viewpoints might exist? Acknowledging and understanding alternative viewpoints is a superpower. Seek them out. Embrace them. Evaluate them on their merits and ask these same fundamental questions about them.
What are the consequences of being wrong in my original beliefs? Understanding the stakes is critical. Always understand the stakes.
First principles thinking starts with questioning your beliefs. Asking these questions will help you drill down to the foundational truths of a problem. Once you uncover them, you can begin to slowly build up to a more creative, imaginative solution.
Conclusion
The world is filled with unimaginative, copycat solutions. These solutions—slight improvements—predictably lead to linear outcomes.
Leveraging first principles thinking is intense and time consuming—but it is also a clear, tried-and-true path to devising creative solutions to complex problems that drive non-linear, asymmetric outcomes.
Tim Urban captured it well in a recent tweet:
Feed a man a fish, feed him for a night.
Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime.
Teach a man to reason from first principles, he can teach himself to fish. Then he can invent a better fishing rod and feed a billion people.
First principles thinkers are independent thinkers. We can all strive to leverage this framework more effectively in our lives.
The world will be the ultimate beneficiary…
Where It Happens Podcast
Memes Rule the World with Dogecoin Creator Billy Markus
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Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
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To learn more and sign-up today go to commonstock.com.
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Welcome to the 808 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 63,073 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
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Today at a Glance:
Curiosity and inspiration are perishable—they must be acted upon when they strike. But unfortunately, despite its importance to your career and life, learning is not a skill we’re ever explicitly taught how to approach.
The Feynman Technique is a beautiful, intuitive framework for learning literally anything.
The process in a nutshell: identify a topic, research it deeply, attempt to explain it to a child, and then study to fill in the gaps.
The Feynman Technique
Curiosity is unpredictable.
It strikes at random—and often inopportune—moments. But it is also notoriously perishable, so it must be acted upon.
Let’s assume for a moment that you've been bit by the curiosity bug and are ready to act on it—ready to learn something new and (hopefully) exciting.
Now what? Where do you start? What approach do you take?
You’re inspired and motivated to learn, but you don’t even know where to begin.
Unfortunately, despite its importance to your career and life, learning is not a skill we’re ever explicitly taught how to approach.
Let’s fix that…
In today’s piece, I’d like to talk about a beautiful, intuitive framework for learning literally anything: The Feynman Technique.
Introduction
Richard Feynman was an American theoretical physicist born in 1918 in New York City.
Feynman was a very late talker—he didn’t utter a word until he was three—but it was clear from a young age that he was extremely observant and intelligent. His parents valued non-consensus thinking—they constantly encouraged young Richard to ask questions and think independently.
Feynman taught himself advanced mathematics in his teens and would go on to earn a B.S. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a PhD from Princeton University. He would then become famous for his work in quantum electrodynamics and receive the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965 for his contributions to the field.
So yes, you could say that Richard Feynman was intelligent...
But there are a lot of intelligent people in the world. Feynman's true genius was in his ability to convey extremely complex ideas in simple, elegant, digestible ways—to abstract complexity and deliver simplicity.
He had observed at a young age that complex language is often used to mask a lack of deep understanding. As a rule of thumb, if someone uses a lot of acronyms and jargon to explain something to you, they probably don’t understand it very well themselves.
We've all encountered this type of “expert” at one time or another…
What was Richard Feynman’s secret? He had developed a learning framework—accidentally or intentionally—that forced a deep, elegant understanding of a topic that most people never achieve.
The Feynman Technique: How It Works
The Feynman Technique can be broken down into five key steps:
Set the Stage
Read & Research
ELI5 (Explain It To Me Like I'm 5)
Assess & Study
Organize, Convey & Review
Let's walk through each step, including notes on how I personally implement each one in my own learning processes…
Step 1: Set the Stage
What’s the topic you want to learn?
Starting with a blank page, write the topic at the top and jot down everything you know about it. For some topics, that might be precisely nothing; for others, it might be a lot.
The starting point is irrelevant, you’re just setting the stage.
Sahil Notes: I like to use Notion for tracking and managing my various research and learning efforts. It’s just a personal preference, so you can identify what works for you. I keep a “Knowledge Neural Net” board and for each new topic, I create a new page. I can then go back and connect ideas and topics as I see fit.
Step 2: Read & Research
Now that you have a baseline of your starting knowledge, you can begin your reading and research.
The most effective strategy for research: start horizontal, then go vertical.
Horizontal = Breadth
Vertical = Depth
Here’s a simple visualization of how I think about this process:
Horizontal Research (“HR”): Lays the foundation for your learning. When you start horizontal, you gather information across the full breadth of the topic area. This gives you the capacity to "see the entire field”—it draws a surface-level map of the topic. With horizontal research, it’s perfectly acceptable to keep it simple: Google and Wikipedia (sorry to all of my high school teachers!) are both great tools.
Vertical Research (“VR”): Historically much more challenging—it typically required hours of finding and reading long, dense books on a topic. But in the Information Age, we have a diverse array of tools that provide much higher time leverage. These tools include (but are not limited to): Reddit, Twitter, Newsletters, Podcasts, Expert Networks, Books. With these tools, you’ll be able to go vertical—quickly and effectively—on any topic.
Take notes, cite sources, and track gaps as you go. This step is where you start to build out your knowledge base on a topic.
Sahil Notes: I really try to take my time in this phase. True depth of understanding requires significant time. I find it helpful to conduct this research in sprints—short bursts of high intensity research—rather than in jogs. Try to create mental maps that connect together pieces of information as you go—it will help cement new learnings.
Step 3: ELI5
Ok, so up to this point, it all feels like a standard process—no Feynman touch. But here's where it gets fun (and challenging)…
Attempt to explain the topic to a child—figuratively (or literally if you're ambitious!).
On a new blank page, distill everything you know about your topic—but now pretend you are explaining it to a child. Use exclusively simple language.
Sahil Notes: In this step, rather than a blank page, I simply create a new header in my same Notion tab. Below this header, I attempt to distill the highlights of the topic into 1-2 paragraphs. I think of this as the “elevator pitch” or “cocktail party fodder” on the topic—i.e. the 60-second bit that I would use to explain the topic to any new acquaintance. The key is that you have to distill and write in a way that assumes the individual is “uninitiated” on the topic.
Step 4: Assess & Study
Test it out. Try your “elevator pitch” on another person. How’d you do? Reflect on your performance—form a balanced, honest assessment.
Ask a few questions:
How well were you able to explain the topic to a child?
Where did the person appear confused?
Where did you get frustrated?
Where did you turn to jargon or hand waving?
Answering these questions shines a light on the gaps in your understanding. Circle back to Step 2 and read and research more to fill them in.
Sahil Notes: I normally try to ask the person I attempted to explain it to for this feedback. If it’s someone you’re comfortable with—partner, sibling, roommate, friend—it’s much easier than if it’s a stranger.
Step 5: Organize, Convey & Review
As a final step, organize your elegant, simple language into a clear, compelling story, narrative, or distillation.
Test-and-Learn: Put yourself out there and convey it to a few others outside your comfort zone, then iterate and refine accordingly.
Review—and marvel at—your new, deep, elegant understanding of the topic.
Simple = Beautiful
Sahil Notes: I tend to find that leveraging a narrative or storytelling arc makes topics stick with listeners. See if you can leverage storytelling principles to pull it all together. The best teachers do this.
Wrapping Up
The Feynman Technique is a powerful framework for learning anything. The best entrepreneurs, investors, and thinkers have leveraged this technique—whether they know it or not! Their common genius: the ability to abstract complexity and convey ideas in simple, digestible ways.
To summarize, the five key steps:
Set the Stage: Identify the topic and everything you know about it.
Read & Research: Go down the rabbit hole—leverage horizontal and vertical research to expand your knowledge base.
ELI5 (Explain It To Me Like I'm 5): Distill the learnings into a simple, elegant “elevator pitch” on the topic and deliver it to someone.
Assess & Study: Reflect on your performance, identify the gaps, and study to fill them in.
Organize, Convey & Review: Organize your new knowledge into a tight, compelling narrative. Marvel at your new depth of understanding!
It's easy to overcomplicate and intimidate—we all know people who try to do this. But don't be fooled—complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of deep understanding.
Be better. Use the Feynman Technique. Find beauty in simplicity.
Where It Happens Podcast
New Episode: Forecasting the Future of Tech with Scott Belsky
This was an insane episode:
5-year predictions for the future
3+ game-changing new business ideas
Lessons for entrepreneurs & investors
If you're looking to place bets on the future—start here.
Watch it on YouTube and listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Want more? Join the 3,000+ in our unique community on Discord.
Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
Why settle for the old model of investing when new options offer you so much transparency to help you grow your wealth? Commonstock is the home of smart money and an innovative social media approach to investing. We both love the platform and have used it to enhance our financial strategy.
Commonstock is a social media platform like Reddit, but it removes anonymity and adds transparency. The app lets you see what smart money investors are buying and selling – in real-time – all while letting you see their reason why. This way, you know whether investors have skin in the game, or whether they only talk a big game. It’s a great way to get insights that support your investing strategy.
To learn more and sign-up today go to commonstock.com.
Capchase is a new financing option for fast-growing startups. They are offering Where It Happens listeners .25% off their first draw, preferred onboarding, and more. Their main product Capchase Grow lets you tap into your future revenue today, meaning you can reinvest in your business faster. We love what they are offering to business owners. To learn more go to capchase.com/room
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Pallet - Special Projects Intern
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The full board with 30+ other roles can be found here!
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Welcome to the 3,290 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday (🤯). Join the 61,177 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Revelo!
If you’re a growing technology company, chances are you’re struggling to find talented developers right now. It’s a massive problem.
Revelo is your solution—the largest talent platform to match you with vetted full-time remote developers in Latin America who work in US time zones. It offers an all-encompassing platform that covers payroll, benefits, compliance, and more, allowing you to hire full-time remote developers without the logistical headaches.
Revelo helps companies like GitHub, Intuit, and Carta hire faster, so they can grow faster! Get matched with vetted candidates within 3 days—guaranteed. They even offer a 100% risk-free 14-day trial. If you’re not satisfied, you pay nothing.
SPECIAL OFFER: Revelo is offering Curiosity Chronicle subscribers 20% off the first 3 months of any hire! Use the link below to take advantage of this crazy deal!
Today at a Glance:
Goal setting is everywhere—we all set goals, but very few do it well. Why? Goal setting is equal parts art and science—it’s a craft that must be honed like any other.
The new framework for goal setting involves five core steps: (1) Set the Stage, (2) Identify BHAG, (3) Work Backwards, (4) Establish Process Goals, (5) Track & Adjust.
It’s critical to avoid goal competition and paralysis. To stay focused, the framework only allows for 1 BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal), 1 connected medium-term goal, and 2-3 daily process goals per category.
The Goal Setting Guide
Well, we made it. Welcome to 2022!
2021 had a whole lot of twists and turns, but if you’re reading this, you managed to navigate them all and come out on the other side. Congratulations on surviving another year in this crazy simulation we call life.
Pardon the cliché, but a new year signifies a new opportunity. It’s officially time to look ahead to the opportunity before us, plant a stake in the ground, and attack 2022 with boundless energy.
Hopefully you rested up over the holiday break, because it’s time to go…
An Intro to Goal Setting
From a young age, we are taught to set goals—first for our grades and athletic endeavors, next for our careers, and last for our health and lives.
Goal setting is everywhere—we all set goals, but very few do it well.
Take me as an example. I'm very goal-oriented. But I've set—and then failed to achieve—many over the years. I would start the new year with an ambitious set of goals and then slowly fall short on most of them.
Discouraged, I started reading more on goal setting to understand why…
What I’ve learned: Goal setting is equal parts art and science—it’s a craft that must be honed like any other. Most importantly, there is a clear framework for successful goal setting—a better way.
Put simply, consistent goal achievement is never an accident.
In this piece, I will share my new framework for goal setting.
Goal Setting: A New Framework
First, it’s worth pointing out that most of us struggle with the same set of issues with respect to goal setting.
The most common issues:
Too Many: Goal competition occurs, with goals effectively competing against one another for your time and mindshare.
Too Loose: Weak, unstructured goals lacking clear metrics or time bounds.
Not Tied to Actions: Lack of clear process actions to achieve them.
Unfit Environment: Environment unsuited for consistent execution.
If you've struggled with goal setting (like me), chances are one of these issues is to blame.
But let’s get to the better way—a new framework for goal setting that will allow you to set and smash your goals for 2022.
It involves five core steps:
Set the Stage
Identify BHAG
Work Backwards
Establish Process Goals
Track & Adjust
The general framework is fixed, but its application is intended to be dynamic and iterative.
Let's dive right in…
Step 1: Set the Stage
In the first step, you’ll establish the categories that you'll be building goals around.
For me, it’s three:
Personal
Professional
Health
Note: I find that covering these three areas forces progress in all major domains of my life, but some people will likely prefer a more narrow focus with just one. That’s totally fine!
Within each category you choose, you only have room for:
1 BHAG (Big Hairy Audacious Goal): Your big, bold goal.
1 Connected Medium-Term Goal: Interim goal on the path to the BHAG.
2-3 Daily Process Goals: Daily actions and habits.
That's it—that’s all you’re allowed. Nothing more. The clarity and simplicity this limitation forces is a core feature of the framework.
Step 2: Identify BHAG
Your BHAG—Big Hairy Audacious Goal—is exactly what it sounds like. It should be big and ambitious (but stop short of being completely ridiculous).
Think of this as your North Star for the year.
It's the metaphorical poster on your wall—motivating on an abstract macro scale, but perhaps too grand and scary to be motivating on a micro daily basis.
Remember: You can only have one BHAG within a category! In my case, that means one professional BHAG, one personal BHAG, and one health BHAG. Too many and you get goal competition and paralysis.
Crystallize your BHAGs.
Write them down, print them out, put them on your wall if you want. Whatever works for you.
Step 3: Work Backwards
Step 3 forces you to confront and manage a goal setting reality: BHAGs are great for vision, but TERRIBLE for guiding short and medium-term actions.
To manage this, work backwards from the BHAG to identify one medium-term goal that is connected to it.
If you imagine your year as a mountain and your BHAG is the summit, the connected medium-term goal is a mid-climb campsite. You can’t reach the summit without reaching this point—all roads lead directly through it.
Note: There are time considerations to this step. If your BHAG is an annual goal, you may want to establish a new connected medium-term goal on a rolling quarterly basis. You don't need to plan the connected medium-term goals ahead of time. Be dynamic and flexible about these.
Step 4: Establish Process Goals
Process goals are the key to the entire framework.
What are the 2-3 daily actions that you would need to take to create tangible, compounding progress? These should be the SIMPLEST daily actions. The "atomic units" of progress in a given arena.
A few simple examples of process goals for different areas:
Writing: 30 minutes of daily focused writing.
Fitness: 30 minutes of movement per day.
Health: No processed foods on weekdays; no alcohol on weekdays.
Whereas the BHAG and medium-term connected goals are generally results-focused, the process goals are inputs-focused. These are the daily deposits you are going to make into the bank. The tiny daily actions that compound to create massive long-term results.
My friend James Clear calls the daily process goals the "oars" that move your boat, while the BHAGs and medium-term goals are the "rudders" that set the direction.
I love this.
He also points out that daily process goals are most effective when fixed to a time or action that makes them easy to structure and regiment—“habit stacking" in his words.
Examples:
I'll drink 16oz of water when I wake up.
I'll journal 30 minutes before bed.
I’ll do 25 pushups when I get out of bed.
Simple, effective.
Remember: Never establish more than three daily process goals within a given category. It’ll be overwhelming and increase your likelihood of burning out along the way.
Step 5: Track & Adjust
The daily process goals should be easy to track and adjust.
Jerry Seinfeld would famously hang a huge calendar on his office wall and use a red marker to put an X over every day that he completed an hour of writing. It wasn't about the writing being good, it was simply about the daily action.
This may work for some people, but not for others. Find what works for you.
Leverage community to hold you accountable on your journey. There’s nothing more powerful than community when it comes to goal setting and achievement. Create a Google Sheet and track your process goals with others. Forced accountability is a powerful weapon in your arsenal!
Avoid becoming dogmatic—allow yourself to adjust as needed along the way.
A few common adjustments that you may find useful:
Downward Adjustments: Overly-ambitious daily process goals should be adjusted down. When in doubt, set them to be overly-achievable. The human psyche responds well to wins—manufacture them early and benefit later.
Environmental Adjustments: Environments that are unsuited to achieving daily process goals should be adjusted. If my daily process goal is to eat a balanced, nutrient-dense breakfast, a kitchen full of junk is an environment unsuited to my goal. Deliberately adjust your environments to match your goals.
The goals we track and adjust are the goals we achieve.
Illustrative Example
To bring this to life, let's look at an illustrative example for a hypothetical newsletter writer that’s just getting started with a new newsletter.
BHAG: 50K subs by year-end. This is extremely ambitious, but it’s not ridiculous. With daily, dedicated effort, it’s possible.
Medium-Term Connected Goal: 5K subs by Q1. Rolling quarterly goals established in future might be 15K by Q2, and 30K by Q3.
Daily Process Goals:
30 min of reading each AM—to fill the content engine!
60 min writing after lunch—to create consistent content!
As you might have noticed, this example wasn’t based on a hypothetical newsletter writer—it was based on me! I’m happy to say I achieved my BHAG. The framework works…if you do.
To summarize, my framework for highly-effective goal setting:
Set the Stage
Identify BHAG
Work Backwards
Establish Process Goals
Track & Adjust
I hope this helps you set and achieve your goals in 2022. Let’s crush it!
Additional Resource: A Twitter follower was kind enough to put together this Notion board to help you work through this framework with your goal setting for the year. Big shoutout to Naitik for the work on this!
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Today at a Glance:
At the end of every year, I sit down and reflect on what I learned. There is no specific aim or purpose to the exercise—the goal is to put on wings, fly up to 10,000 feet, and assess myself and the year that has passed.
2021 was a uniquely transformative year for my life. So for the first time, I attempted to synthesize that jumble.
Today’s piece is the result of that attempt: 21 lessons learned in 2021.
21 Lessons Learned in 2021
At the end of every year, I sit down and reflect on what I learned.
I’ve been conducting this self-reflection exercise for the last 10 years, with varying degrees of structure and rigor.
There is no specific aim or purpose to the exercise—the goal is to put on wings, fly up to 10,000 feet, and assess myself and the year that has passed.
Generally speaking, the reflection has been free flowing and resulted in a jumble of words and thoughts in a notebook. But this year felt different. It was a uniquely transformative year for my life.
So for the first time, I attempted to synthesize that jumble—to abstract the chaos into something simple and coherent.
Today’s piece is the result of that attempt: my 21 lessons learned in 2021…
Engineered Serendipity
I believe that some of what we call "luck" is actually the macro result of 1,000s of micro actions.
Your daily habits can put you in a position where "luck" is more likely to strike.
Increase your serendipity surface area. Engineer your own serendipity.
Pessimists Sound Smart, Optimists Get Rich
Pessimists look at the future and see the doors that are closed.
Optimists look at the future and see the doors that are open—and probably kick down the closed doors, too.
Surround yourself with optimists—those who believe the future is bright will make it so.
The Exponential Growth Challenge
Human brains cannot fathom the insane power of exponential growth. We consistently underestimate its impact.
When you're on an exponential growth curve—stop trying to set specific goals.
Strap in, keep your head back, and enjoy the ride.
Work Like a Lion
Most people are not wired to work 9-5.
Modern work culture is a remnant of the Industrial Age—long periods of steady, monotonous work.
If your goal is to do inspired, creative work, you have to work like a lion.
Sprint when inspired. Rest. Repeat.
Overestimate a Day, Underestimate a Year
We overestimate what we can accomplish in a day, and underestimate what we can accomplish in a year.
To fight this, focus on small daily actions that compound over the long-term.
Small things become big things. When in doubt, zoom out.
Ruthlessly Eliminate Negativity
Everyone has a few negative people in their circle. They tell you to be realistic. They laugh at your ambition.
Eliminate this negativity from your life. It's a boat anchor holding you back from your true potential—cut the damn line.
Tolerance for Uncertainty
Having a high tolerance for uncertainty is a unique competitive advantage. It prevents you from settling.
When we fear uncertainty, we settle to escape its grasp.
Tolerate uncertainty for a bit longer—never settle for less than you deserve.
Step into the Arena
It's easy to stand on the sidelines.
It's hard to step into the arena. It's scary to put yourself out there, to expose yourself, to become vulnerable.
But it makes all the difference. Get off the sidelines. Be the Man—or Woman!—in the Arena.
Go For More Walks
Want to get unstuck? Go for a walk.
No phone. No music. No podcasts. Just you, your thoughts, and the fresh air.
When you let your mind wander—in its true natural state—good things happen. It works—I guarantee it.
Put Family First
In May, I woke up one morning and told my wife that I wanted to move back to the East Coast to be closer to family.
That month, we sold our house in California and moved to New York. It has been one of the best decisions I’ve ever made. The simple moments with family and friends are, quite literally, priceless.
Life is short & fragile—you'll never regret spending more time with your loved ones.
The Dots Really Do Connect
In his 2005 Stanford Commencement Speech, Steve Jobs talked about having faith that the dots will somehow connect in your life.
In 2021, I finally started to see my dots connecting. Not perfectly, but the connections are slowly coming into view. It’s a beautiful and encouraging thing.
If you haven't seen it yet, stay the course. Trust in something.
It's Darkest Before the Dawn
In May, I got rejected for a job after months of interviews.
It was a gut punch. I felt lost in the darkness. I went to sleep that night with no motivation or vision for what I would focus on the next morning. Put simply, it sucked.
But within a week, an amazing path magically came into view.
"It's always darkest before the dawn" is a cliché, but I now believe it's true.
Learn to Say No
I've always had a really tough time saying no. I would take on too much and then be forced to grind my way through it.
The ability to say no is a superpower of highly successful people.
Be deliberate about what you spend your time on—and who you spend it with.
Pay It Forward
No matter how far you go, always remember that you didn’t make it on your own.
Pay it forward. Be a mentor. Be a champion for others. Their growth should become a source of tremendous joy and pride.
Operate in Your Zone of Genius
Your Zone of Genius is where your interests, passions and skills align.
Find yours, then slowly shift your life to spend more time in it. Start playing games you are uniquely well-suited to win.
You'll find more happiness, fulfillment, and success.
The Big Change Dilemma
Small changes can happen naturally. Big changes only happen with a massive, deliberate push.
You cannot expect big changes to happen on their own. You have to force the issue. It's scary as s**t.
If you believe in something, close your eyes and jump.
Delegate Uncomfortably Early
If you have to ask if it's time to delegate, it's already too late.
Trust me, I learned this the hard way...
When you're building and growing, delegate and outsource so early it feels uncomfortable. Leverage is a beautiful thing.
Say Thank You More
Show more gratitude to the people who have mentored, supported, or helped you. Not just on special occasions—every single day.
"I appreciate you" is my most frequently sent tweet and text. Why? Because it's true.
Gratitude makes the world a better place.
Talk Less, Listen More
"We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak." — Epictetus
I love to talk. Always have, always will. But as I continue to find myself in rooms where I'm out of my depth, I've learned to talk less and listen more.
Lesson: Get in those rooms.
Build New Circles
The internet has made it possible to connect with people all around the world instantaneously. Use it to your advantage.
Build new circles—positive sum, decentralized friend groups are force multipliers for your growth.
When one person wins, we all win.
Do Things You Never Regret
A few things I never regret:
Calling my parents
Dinner with my wife
Going for a walk when I’m stressed
Drinking a bunch of water first thing in the morning
Exercising for at least 30 minutes a day
Sleeping 8 hours a night
Make your list. Spend more time on things you never regret—and less time on things you do.
There you have it—my 21 lessons learned in 2021.
This was my—hopefully successful—attempt at abstracting the chaos of my 2021 into something of value for others. It was a crazy year and I feel very lucky to have built this community of readers along the way. You have all enriched my life in so many ways and I am appreciative of each and every one of you.
THANK YOU! Happy Holidays.
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Today at a Glance:
Study the lives and practices of today’s most successful entrepreneurs, financiers, and builders and you’ll find one common trait: a deep, visceral understanding of the importance of powerful, efficient, high-leverage writing.
Why? These leaders know that powerful writing isn't an accident—clear writing is clear thinking.
The four key principles of powerful business writing: (1) Draft Fast, Edit Slow, (2) KISS, (3) Clear Target Reaction, and (4) Storytelling.
The Power Business Writing Guide
Want to accelerate your career? Write better. Period.
Study the lives and practices of today’s most successful entrepreneurs, financiers, and builders and you’ll find one common trait: a deep, visceral understanding of the importance of powerful, efficient, high-leverage writing.
Jeff Bezos famously installed memo writing as a mainstay of Amazon’s business culture. Prior to kicking off a meeting, attendees would be asked to read and digest several pages of written memos from the meeting leads. Why? Bezos deeply believed in the value of these memos, not only for the uninformed participants, but also for the meeting leads to clarify their thinking through the writing process.
Warren Buffett famously writes an annual shareholder letter, distilling insights on billions of dollars in investments into a single memo.
The list of writing advocates goes on and on…
Why? These leaders know that powerful writing isn't an accident—clear writing is clear thinking.
In this piece, I will attempt to deconstruct the four key principles of powerful business writing…
They are as follows:
Draft Fast, Edit Slow
KISS
Clear Target Reaction
Storytelling
I’ll cover each principle and provide some additional learning resources:
Principle 1: Draft Fast, Edit Slow
There's nothing more daunting than a blank page.
We have all experienced it at one time or another—sitting at our desk, staring into the abyss of a blank Word document or notebook page, with no idea where to start. The perfect line is illusive, and everyone knows you need a perfect first line…
The solution?
Play a trick on yourself. Start writing, fast. Get a draft down—and don’t worry at all about the quality (seriously, it’s ok if it sucks).
My friend Julian Shapiro said it best: “Making something bad then iterating until it’s good is faster than making something good upfront.”
Here's a framework that works for me: Write-Rest-Review.
Write-Rest-Review
Get the first draft down as quickly as possible.
Walk away for 5 minutes—go for a walk, grab a coffee, listen to some music, whatever.
Come back and review the draft with the benefit of that refresh.
Ask a bunch of questions:
What's missing?
Where are the logical flaws?
Where are the cracks?
Where is the writing loose or flimsy?
When you review with "new" eyes, good things tend to happen.
Try out Write-Rest-Review and let me know how it works for you!
Principle 2: Keep It Simple, Stupid
Most people assume that longer, more complex writing will impress and inspire.
Sorry, it doesn't.
Great business writing is simple and direct. There's no fluff or handwaving—it's tactical.
A few actionable tips to tighten and simplify:
Cut the Fluff
In school, we were taught to heap descriptors into our writing. We were told it made it more vibrant. It also helped fill out the word or page count we were forced to hit…
In the real world, those fluff words are the silent killers of powerful business writing.
Review your draft with an eye towards removing any unnecessary words & sentences.
Some common fluff:
"I think X"
"Very" (or similar adverbs)
Acronyms
Jargon
$10 words (i.e. fancy, big, long words)
Be ruthless in identifying and eliminating the fluff words & sentences from your writing.
Shorten Everything
Powerful business writing is very similar to powerful Twitter writing: short, punchy writing is better.
Use short sentence structures.
Space sentences or paragraphs out to make the writing more optically pleasing. Great business writing should be engaging to the eye.
I have found writing more on Twitter to be a force amplifier for my business writing—it’s a forced brevity training ground. Use it to your advantage as you work at your craft.
Add Data
This is a classic principle instilled by Jeff Bezos in Amazon's writing-centric culture.
When in doubt, replace fluff words with data.
Before: "The majority of viewers loved the show."
After: "95% of viewers rated the show with 5-stars."
The after is clear & much more impactful!
Principle 3: Clear Target Reaction
Great business writing has a clear target reaction—a deliberate purpose or aim.
That target reaction should be experienced by the reader immediately. As my friend Sam Parr says, "Punch the reader in the face with your first sentence."
Amazon calls it the "so what?" test:
Before you share any piece of business writing, identify the "so what?" of the piece. What reaction, value, or takeaway should the audience have? Is it coming across loud and clear? If not, go back to the drawing board and punch harder.
This target reaction should be a central focus during your writing process. I force it into mind by putting a big sticker with the target reaction at the top of the page (to be removed at the end).
Principle 4: Storytelling
Storytelling is a foundational skill—but it's one we don’t learn in the traditional education system. It's no coincidence that the greatest CEOs & founders are the greatest storytellers. High-leverage storytelling is a supercharger for all endeavors.
Humans are naturally wired as storytelling creatures—we developed around campfires. Lean into this wiring.
Adding a story to a memo on a dry topic can bring the entire piece to life. Simple, crisp stories enhance the power of the message.
A few ideas for you:
Add a mini anecdote to illustrate a point.
Use a folksy one-liner to draw people in (Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are the MASTERS of this).
A storytelling touch will make your writing punch well above its weight.
For more, I’ve written about storytelling here and here.
Summary
Better business writing can change your life—it’s a skill like any other. With focused study and practice, you’ll be well on your way to improving your craft and leveling up.
I highly recommend everyone read at least a few of the Amazon Shareholder Letters and Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letters to see how Jeff Bezos and Warren Buffett leverage these principles in their writing. It’s a free masterclass…
To summarize, the key principles to leverage to improve your business writing:
Draft Fast, Edit Slow
KISS
Clear Target Reaction
Storytelling
Start using these and I guarantee you will see improvement.
Call-to-Action: Please email or DM me with your success stories!
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SPECIAL: State of the Union: DAOing the X Games
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Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
There’s still time to get an incredible gift for yourself or a loved one this holiday season. One of our favorite products of this entire year is the Eight Sleep Pod Pro Cover. We’ve both prioritized good sleep and haven’t found a better product on the market. The Pod Pro by Eight Sleep is the most advanced solution on the market for thermoregulation. It pairs dynamic cooling and heating with biometric tracking. With the Pod Pro Cover, you start sleeping as cool as 55°F or as hot as 110°F. It also splits your bed in half, so you can have a completely different temperature than your partner.
The result: Eight Sleep users fall asleep up to 32% faster, reduce sleep interruptions by 40%, and get overall more restful sleep.
As a subscriber, go to eightsleep.com/whereithappens to get up to $250 off. This deal will only be available for 2 weeks, so give the gift of better sleep today.
We do a lot of drinking on the show, and we need to balance it out with something a little healthier. That’s why we can’t get enough of Four Sigmatic. Our go tos are their Hot Cacao Mix with Reishi Mushroom and Sweet Vanilla Plant-Based Protein. The Hot Cacao is packed with 500mg of Reishi to help you relax before bed. And the plant-based protein is filled with 18g of protein per serving as well as 7 different functional mushrooms and adaptogens, making it the perfect post-workout recovery drink.
They’re delicious and we can’t recommend them enough for your daily routine. And by the way, they’re a great holiday gift!
As a subscriber to this newsletter, you can receive 15% off your order. Click here and enter the code “TheRoom” at checkout.
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Pallet - Special Projects Intern
The full board with 40+ other roles can be found here!
If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Listen now | 20+ principles to live, grow, laugh, and love
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 521 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 51,175 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
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Today at a Glance:
One cold email can literally change your life. But a cold email success is never an accident. You need a framework for writing and executing highly-effective cold outreach.
The principles of a great cold email: Short & Sweet, Personalized, Credentials or Social Proof, Create Value, and a Clear Call-to-Action.
Importantly, these principles apply to any form of cold outreach (Twitter DM, etc.), so can be leveraged broadly for a variety of use cases and needs.
The Cold Email Guide
One cold email can change your life. It can open doors to a new job, secure a new mentor, or unlock new opportunities.
A cold email—as an investment—has the ultimate asymmetric return profile: Huge upside, limited downside.
In this piece, I will attempt to deconstruct a framework for optimizing your cold outreach in order to further accentuate that beautiful return profile…
Background
I’ve sent (and received) a lot of cold emails—some great, some not.
What I've learned: a cold email success is never an accident. There are very specific principles of great cold emails that you can apply to enhance your cold outreach efforts today.
The best part? The results are instantaneous.
So let’s just dive right in…the core principles of a great cold email:
Short & Sweet
Personalized
Credentials or Social Proof
Create Value
Clear Call-to-Action
I’ll cover each principle and then workshop a few examples:
Short & Sweet
If you're sending a cold email to someone, remember that the person receiving it probably gets a lot of these. They don't have time—or energy—to read through long and winding notes.
Keep it short and sweet!
Space out the text to make it optically inviting. To bring this point to life, here are two emails—identical content, different spacing.
Option A:
Option B:
Same exact email—one a block of text, one spaced out. Option B (the spaced out version) is so much more digestible and optically inviting for a reader. As such, Option B is much more likely to elicit a response.
Personalized
No one likes a generic email—it's going to get auto-deleted 99% of the time.
Personal touches can make all the difference in the effectiveness of a cold email. They require a bit more upfront time investment—for background research, diligence, and execution—but have the potential to create a 10x+ impact.
Do your research on the person you are emailing. A simple search across Google, Twitter, and LinkedIn will probably take you 15 minutes and is definitely worth it.
Then include some of these findings in your note.
A few to consider:
Reference a book they love
Mention a podcast they were on (with a specific insight you gleaned from listening to it)
Compliment their work
The goal: Make it clear you didn't send out hundreds of the note (even if you did).
Credentials or Social Proof
The infusion of credentials or social proof is an important—yet often overlooked—element of successful cold outreach. Credentials and social proof are, in effect, the reasons the person should take you seriously.
Credentials are just the outward markers of your success to date—degrees, accolades, awards, etc.
Social Proof is formally defined as a psychological phenomenon where people imitate the actions of others in an attempt to behave appropriately for a specific situation.
In the context of cold emails, this means that the receiver should be given examples of others—hopefully impressive others—who have responded in the way that you want this receiver to respond.
“In recent weeks, I’ve interviewed Barack Obama, Elon Musk, and the Pope.”
The receiver immediately sees (a) big names and (b) the action—it sparks their intrinsic psychological desire to follow suit.
In infusing these credentials and social proof, don't be humble—let it shine.
What have you done or created that is interesting or notable? Who has engaged? Show the receiver that they would be crazy to ignore your email!
Create Value
My foundational rule (in business & life): create value, receive value.
If you create value for the person you’re emailing, they are much more likely to engage.
What can you do to save them time or reduce their stress? It can be small—a little goes a long way.
Note: I consider this an optional add-in. If there is a clear way to include it, go for it. If not, skip it.
Clear CTA
Every successful cold email has a very clear call-to-action (“CTA”). This is the specific response you are attempting to elicit from the receiver.
A few common examples:
Take a coffee meeting
Agree to join a podcast or interview
Review your startup pitch deck
Take a sales call
The CTA has to be specific and succinct.
Use hard enters and spacing to make sure it stands alone in the body of the email. This is important. It should be effortless to find and understand the ask.
Be bold, but don't overreach. Make it easy to say yes!
Examples
Now that we’ve covered the key principles of great cold emails, let's workshop a few of my favorite examples of successful ones.
I'll try to provide a quick breakdown of why they worked—grounded in the key principles we just covered:
Internship Email to Evan Spiegel
This is a relatively famous one that made the viral rounds on social media over the last couple of years. High schooler emails CEO of Snapchat and winds up with an opportunity for an internship.
But why did it work?
Short & Sweet: Extremely short and to the point (even going as far as calling out the brevity of the email upfront).
Credentials: Includes clear credentials around programming experience and capabilities.
Clear CTA: Specific question and ask in the last line of the email.
This was a brilliant example of effective brevity. Any high school junior who has done this much—and is bold enough to make this ask—deserves to be taken seriously.
Email to Tyler Cowen
This is an email from my good friend David Perell to renowned writer and economist Tyler Cowen. David was just starting to make progress in his career as a creator and this had the potential to be his big break. It worked and led to some incredible things for David.
But why did it work?
Personalized: Specific callouts of episodes and insights that he loved.
Social Proof: Calls out prior interviews with Neil deGrasse Tyson and Seth Godin.
Clear CTA: Specific request for hosting Cowen on his podcast (plus a willingness to travel to make it happen).
I expect nothing less from David—who is one of the best writers and thinkers I know—but this was exceptional.
Email to Chamath
This email made the rounds on Twitter thanks to a thread from my friend Shaan Puri.
It was a complete shot in the dark, but led to several discussions and a meeting with Chamath (who at the time was one of the most famous people in the world).
But why did it work?
Short & Sweet: The email is redacted, but you can tell that it is extremely brief.
Create Value: This is probably the best example I’ve seen of creating value in a cold outreach. They built Chamath a website for his teased run for governor of California and emailed him the landing page.
Almost impossible to ignore that effort and hustle!
Summary (& Results)
Since posting a short thread on cold emails on Twitter, I received a number of amazing messages from followers who had put the principles to good use.
Cold emails fundamentally changed my life—leading to some of my most fruitful mentorships, new investment opportunities, and tremendous amounts of growth.
They can change yours too.
To summarize, the key principles to leverage:
Short & Sweet
Personalized
Credentials or Social Proof
Create Value
Clear CTA
Start infusing these and I guarantee you will improve the conversion of your efforts.
Call-to-Action: Please email or DM me with your success stories!
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That does it for today’s newsletter. Join the 51,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
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Today at a Glance:
A paradox is defined as a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated or explained may prove to be well founded or true.
Life is full of paradoxes. Once you become aware of them, you will find yourself empowered to use them to your advantage.
Paradoxes of Life
Paradox: a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated or explained may prove to be well founded or true.
From a young age, we are pressured to view the world as linear and logical—when in reality it is anything but. Many of life’s most important truths appear contradictory or convoluted on the surface.
Look around long enough and you’ll realize the ultimate truth:
Life is full of paradoxes.
They are everywhere around you. They have the potential to confuse…or empower.
Once you become aware of these paradoxes—once you truly internalize them—you will find yourself empowered to use them to your advantage.
To get you started on this journey, here are 20+ powerful paradoxes of life…
The Persuasion Paradox
Have you noticed that the most argumentative people rarely persuade anyone of…well…anything?
The most persuasive people don’t argue—they observe, listen, and ask questions.
Argue less, persuade more.
Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.
The Effort Paradox
Sprezzatura is an Italian word meaning “studied carelessness”—it encapsulates the effortful art of appearing effortless.
You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless.
Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice.
Watch videos of Roger Federer playing tennis in his prime. There is a certain nonchalance to his actions on the court, but this nonchalance was the earned result of endless hours of studied, careful, meticulous practice.
Small things become big things. Simple is not simple.
The Wisdom Paradox
“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” — Albert Einstein
The more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown.
This should be empowering, not frightening. Embrace your own ignorance. Embrace lifelong learning.
The Productivity Paradox
Parkinson's Law says that work expands to fill the time available for its completion.
Work longer, get less done.
When you establish fixed hours to your work, you find unproductive ways to fill it.
Modern work culture is a remnant of the Industrial Age. It encourages long periods of steady, monotonous work unsuited for the Information Age.
To do truly great, creative work, you have to be a lion. Sprint when inspired. Rest. Repeat.
The Money Paradox
You have to lose money in order to make money.
Every successful investor & builder has stories of the invaluable lessons learned from a terrible loss in their career. Sometimes you have to pay to learn.
Put skin in the game. Scared money don't make money!
The Growth Paradox
Growth takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you ever would have thought.
Growth happens gradually, then suddenly.
When you realize this, you start to do things differently—apply effort appropriately, stay the course, and let compounding work its magic.
The Failure Paradox
You have to fail more to succeed more.
Our greatest moments of growth often stem directly from our greatest failures.
Don’t fear failure, just learn to fail smart and fast.
After all, getting punched in the face—a few times, but not too many—builds a strong jaw.
The Say No Paradox
Take on less, accomplish more.
Success doesn’t come from taking on everything that comes your way. It comes from focus—deep focus on the tasks that really matter.
Say yes to what matters, say no to what doesn’t. Protect your time as a gift to be cherished.
The Speed Paradox
You have to slow down to speed up.
Slowing down gives you the time to be deliberate with your actions. You can focus, gather energy, and deploy your resources more efficiently.
It allows you to focus on leverage and ROI, not effort.
Move slow to move fast.
The Death Paradox
You must know your death in order to truly live your life.
Memento Mori is a Stoic reminder of the certainty and inescapability of death. It is not intended to be morbid; rather, to clarify, illuminate, and inspire.
Death is inevitable. Live while you're alive.
The Fear Paradox
The thing we fear the most is often the thing we need the most.
Fears—when avoided—become limiters on our growth and life.
Make a habit of getting closer to your fears.
Then take the leap (metaphorically!)—you may just find growth on the other side.
The News Paradox
The more news you consume, the less well-informed you are.
Taleb calls it the noise bottleneck: As you consume more data, the noise to signal ratio increases, so you end up knowing less about what is actually going on.
Want to know more about the world? Turn off the news.
The Icarus Paradox
It is a classic tale of Greek mythology.
Icarus crafted wings out of feathers and beeswax to escape an island. He began to fly—the wings working wonders. But he quickly became blinded by his own engineering prowess and flew too close to the sun, which caused the beeswax to melt and sent him plummeting to his death.
What makes you successful can lead to your downfall.
An incumbent achieves success with one thing, but overconfidence blinds them to coming disruption. Beware!
The Shrinking Paradox
In order to grow, sometimes you need to shrink.
Growth is never linear. Shedding deadweight may feel like a step back, but it is a necessity for long-term growth.
One step back, two steps forward is a recipe for consistent, long-term success.
The Looking Paradox
You may have to stop looking in order to find what you are looking for.
Have you noticed that when you are looking for something, you rarely find it?
Stop looking—what you’re looking for may just find you.
Applies to love, business, investing, or life...
The Hamlet Paradox
"I must be cruel only to be kind." — Hamlet
In Hamlet, the protagonist is forced to take a seemingly cruel action in order to prevent a much larger harm.
Life is so complex. The long-term righteous course may be the one that appears short-term anything but.
The Tony Robbins Paradox
In investing, the willingness to admit you have no competitive advantage can be the ultimate competitive advantage.
Strong self-awareness breeds high-quality decision-making. Foolish self-confidence breeds nothing of use.
Be self-aware—act accordingly.
The Talking Paradox
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” — Epictetus
If you want your words and ideas to be heard, start by talking less and listening more. You’ll find more power in your words.
Talk less to be heard more.
The Connectedness Paradox
More connectedness, less connected.
We're constantly connected—bombarded by notifications and dopamine hits. But while we have more connectedness, we feel less connected.
Put down the phone. Look someone in the eye. Have a conversation. Breathe.
The Taleb Surgeon Paradox
Looking the part is sometimes the worst indicator of competency.
The one who doesn’t look the part has had to overcome much more to achieve its status than the one from central casting.
If forced to choose, choose the one that doesn’t look the part.
The Constant Change Paradox
“When you are finished changing, you are finished.” — Benjamin Franklin
The only constant in life is change. Entropy is reality. It’s the one thing you can always count on—the only constant.
Embrace it—be dynamic, be adaptable.
The Control Paradox
More controlling, less control.
We have all seen or experienced this as children, partners, or parents. The most controlling often end up with the least control.
Humans are wired for independence—any attempts to counter this will be met with resistance.
Life is full of paradoxes.
They are everywhere around you. Don’t let them cloud your path.
Internalize them—use them to your advantage.
I hope this post helps you do just that…
Where It Happens Podcast
Episode 2: The NSFW Framework & the Magic of Community-Product Fit with Amanda Goetz
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Special thanks to our sponsors for providing us with the support to bring this episode to life.
If you’re a founder, Mercury is the banking product you need. It is THE bank for startups. I was a raving fan of Mercury as a customer…then I pounded on their door until they let me invest. It’s the banking product you’ve always wished you had.
This Black Friday, AppSumo is rolling out some insane deals on digital products at discounts of up to 90% off. This is their biggest sale of the year and they sell out quickly! Click here to find products to grow your startup today. Trust me, you won’t want to miss this.
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Metafy - Employee Experience Manager, Community Support Manager
Launch House - Partnerships Associate, Growth Specialist
Evergreen Services Group - Private Equity Talent Analyst
Pathpoint - Sales Development Manager
Matter - Design Lead
The full board can be found here!
We just placed a Talent Agent, Head of Community, Growth Lead, Swiss Army Knife, Account Exec, and several other roles in the last month. Results for featured roles have been awesome! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today’s newsletter. If you’re celebrating…Happy Thanksgiving!
Join the 49,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
A breakdown of what it is, how it works, and why you should care
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 1,050 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 44,581 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week.
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Today at a Glance:
Frameworks are compasses—they provide clarity by creating structure through which to evaluate situations, deploy shortcuts, and execute sound decisions.
When used appropriately, they can meaningfully improve the quality of your decision-making (and reduce stress along the way).
The Framework Handbook below provides 20 useful frameworks and tips on when to put them to use.
The Framework Handbook
Every single day, you are faced with thousands of questions, challenges, and decisions.
These decisions can range from small and simple (what color shirt to wear) to large and complex (whether to quit your job). While an individual decision may not feel overwhelming, when taken in total, our lives can begin to feel like we are navigating a small boat on the open ocean—during a hurricane.
Fortunately, there are frameworks that can help us navigate these treacherous waters—our compasses, if you will.
Frameworks provide clarity by creating structure through which to evaluate situations, deploy shortcuts, and execute sound decisions. When used appropriately, they can meaningfully improve the quality of your decision-making (and reduce stress along the way).
Here are 20 useful frameworks & when to use them:
The Feynman Technique
The Feynman Technique—developed by famed American theoretical physicist Richard Feynman—is a proven method for learning anything.
Here’s how it works:
Identify a topic: What is the topic you want to learn more about? Identify the topic and write down everything you know about it. Read and research the topic and write down all of your new learnings (and the sources of each). This first step sets the stage for what is to come.
Try to explain it to a 5-year-old: Attempt to explain the topic to a child. Once again, write down everything you know about your topic, but this time, pretend you are explaining it to a child. Use simple language and terms. Focus on brevity.
Study to fill in knowledge gaps: Reflect on your performance in Step 2. How well were you able to explain the topic to a child? Where did you get frustrated? Where did you resort to jargon or get stuck? These are the gaps in your understanding. Read and study to fill them.
Organize, convey, and review: Organize your elegant, simple language into a compelling story or narrative. Convey it to others. Test-and-learn. Iterate and refine your story or narrative accordingly. Review (and respect) your new, deeper understanding of the topic.
True genius is the ability to simplify, not complicate. Simple is beautiful.
Use It When: You need to learn anything new.
Directional Arrow of Progress
"Study the undeniable arrows of progress." — Josh Wolfe
The future is extremely difficult to predict—but there are clues. Look at the trend line of progress and where it's pointing—directionally, not precisely. Invest (or build) accordingly.
Famed investor Josh Wolfe—one of the smartest, kindest people I have ever met—developed this framework to accurately predict where the future of technology is heading. If it’s good enough for Josh, it’s good enough for all of us.
Use It When: You are deciding what to invest or build on a longer time horizon.
The Eisenhower Decision Matrix
President Dwight Eisenhower was an American military officer and 34th President of the United States. He was known for his prolific productivity.
His secret? He always differentiated between the urgent and the important.
An "urgent" task is one that requires immediate, focused attention to complete. An "important" task is one that promotes or furthers your long-term values, goals, or principles. Remember: Tasks can be both urgent and important.
Place all of your tasks on a 2x2 matrix of urgency and importance:
Important & Urgent
Important & Not Urgent
Not Important & Urgent
Not Important & Not Urgent
Prioritize, delegate, or delete accordingly.
Use It When: You are prioritizing your to-do list.
The Regret Minimization Framework
A framework developed by Jeff Bezos as part of his decision to leave a lucrative hedge fund job at D.E. Shaw to pursue founding Amazon.
The goal is to minimize the number of regrets in life.
When faced with a difficult decision:
Project yourself into the future
Look back on the decision
Ask "Will I regret not doing this?"
Take action accordingly
Use It When: You are making your next big, bold decision.
The Kat Cole Pygmalion Effect
Kat Cole is a prolific operator and trusted advisor of some of the world’s highest performing entrepreneurs.
She has noticed time and again that high expectations lead to high performance (and vice versa)—a phenomenon called the Pygmalion Effect. If you consistently see people as their highest potential, they will achieve more.
When you're occasionally let down, consider it a tax you pay for all the benefit from those you believed in.
Use It When: You are managing a new team.
The Taleb "Look the Part" Framework
“Say you had the choice between two surgeons of similar rank in the same department in some hospital. The first is highly refined in appearance…The second one looks like a butcher…Now if I had to pick, I would overcome my suckerproneness and take the butcher any minute…Why? Simply the one who doesn’t look the part, conditional of having made a (sort of) successful career in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of perception.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb
If forced to choose between two options of seemingly equal merit, choose the one that doesn’t look the part.
The one who doesn’t look the part has had to overcome much more to achieve its status than the one who fit in perfectly.
Use It When: You are deciding who to select (for your team, surgery, or anything else).
Decentralized Friend Groups
There are two types of friend groups:
Centralized Friend Groups: one cluster of friends with shared backgrounds and beliefs.
Decentralized Friend Groups: small clusters of friends unconnected to each other.
When in doubt, opt for decentralized friend groups. It will lead to the development of more independent thought.
Kudos to my decentralized friend group friend George Mack for this one!
Use It When: You are building new bonds and friendships.
The Bragging Framework
Truly successful people rarely feel the need to boast about their success.
If someone regularly boasts about their income, wealth, or success, it’s fair to assume the reality is a fraction of what they claim.
Use It When: You are listening to someone go on and on about their wealth/success.
The Naval Lion Framework
Modern work culture is a remnant of the Industrial Age. It encourages long periods of steady, monotonous work unsuited for the Information Age.
To do truly great, creative work, you have to be a lion.
Sprint when inspired. Rest. Repeat.
Use It When: You are structuring your schedule or deciding what type of job or company you want to work for.
The Seinfeld Calendar Framework
Jerry Seinfeld is a tremendously inspiring figure to study for creatives and non-creatives alike.
He would hang a huge calendar on the wall and use a red marker to put an X over every day that he completed his daily writing habit. It wasn't about the writing being good or high quality, it was about the consistency of the practice.
Naturally, this applies to more than just writing...
Use It When: You are trying to form a new habit.
Disruptive Innovation Framework
The late Clayton Christensen developed his theory of disruptive innovation in the mid-1990s.
The process of disruptive innovation—according to Christensen—involved a smaller company challenging an established incumbent by entering at the bottom of the market and methodically moving up-market.
It generally plays out over a few key steps:
Incumbents develop a product or service for the most profitable customers, ignoring other customers.
Upstarts target the ignored market segment—which is typically over- or under-served by the incumbent’s offering—and win by delivering exactly what is needed at a lower cost compared to the incumbent.
Incumbents don’t respond—choosing to continue their focus on the most profitable customers.
Upstarts methodically move upmarket.
Upstarts eventually attract the incumbent’s profitable customers, completing the cycle of disruptive innovation.
Watch this play out in a number of sectors right now—financial services chief among them.
Use It When: You are evaluating an incumbent, its market, and the potential for new upstarts to eat into its market share.
Skin in the Game
A logical concept popularized by Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his so-named book.
Skin in the game means that the key principals participate in both the upside and downside associated with any decisions. Always look for its presence in any new situation.
Avoid games where those making the rules don't have any skin in the game.
Use It When: You are evaluating a company, government policy proposal, or any new game you are looking to participate in.
7 Powers
Hamilton Helmer's "7 Powers" is a holy grail of business strategy.
The 7 Powers are the foundation of durable value creation:
Cornered Resources: Preferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value.
Counter-Positioning: A newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business.
Network Economies: The value of a service to each user increases as new users join the network.
Scale Economies: Unit costs decline as production volumes increase.
Switching Costs: The value loss expected by a customer that would be incurred from switching to an alternative supplier for additional purchases.
Branding: The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historic info about the seller.
Process Power: Embedded company organisation and activity sets which enable lower costs and/or superior product.
The presence of one or more of these “powers” tends to signal durable competitive advantage that may create a long-term business moat.
Use It When: You are evaluating a new investment’s long-term growth prospects.
Play to Learn
The way we learn has fundamentally changed:
Old Way: Learn to Play
New Way: Play to Learn
We are living in an unprecedented era—historical boundaries are being broken, enabling anyone to participate. If you're trying to learn anything new, insert yourself into the game. Immerse yourself. Put some skin in the game as necessary.
It's the only way.
Use It When: You are trying to learn about a new mega-trend.
Porter's Five Forces
A famous framework for analyzing the competitive intensity of a given market.
The five forces to consider:
Competitive Rivalry: The number of existing competitors in the market and their individual ability to undercut and compete against the company.
Supplier Power: The ease with which suppliers can drive up the cost of inputs in the market.
Customer Power: The ease with which customers can drive down the prices in the market.
Threat of Substitution: The difficulty level of substitution for the core products or services.
Threat of New Entry: The difficulty level and likelihood of new entrants entering the market.
Thoughtful consideration of these forces will lead to better outcomes.
Use It When: You are considering an investment in a company or when crafting a long-term strategy for your company.
The Weekend Test
"What the smartest people do on the weekend is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years." — Chris Dixon
Observe the weekend projects of the smartest people in your circles. Odds are those will become a key part of our future.
Invest accordingly.
Use It When: You are thinking about what the future might look like and where to invest your time, energy, and capital.
The Paul Graham Crazy Idea Framework
If someone proposes a crazy idea, ask two questions:
Are they a domain expert?
Do I know them to be a reasonable person?
If yes on both (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it may be an asymmetric bet on the future.
Use It When: You are about to write off some seemingly absurd new idea as pure fantasy.
The Duck Test
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
You can determine a lot about a company or person by regularly observing its or their habitual characteristics.
Use It When: You are deciding whether or not you can trust someone.
Newton's Flaming Laser Sword
If something cannot be settled by experiment or observation, it is not worth debating. This will save you from wasting a lot of time on pointless arguments.
Use It When: You are dealing with the next internet troll or irrational argument at work.
"What Will Stay the Same?" Framework
“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two—because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time...In our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, 'Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,' or 'I love Amazon; I just wish you'd deliver a little more slowly.' Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.” — Jeff Bezos
Sorry for the long quote, but the entire thing is worth reading. Investing in what might change is risky, but investing in what will stay the same is safe.
The future is hard to predict, so looking for constants you can deliver against may provide a cleaner path to success.
Use It When: You are crafting a long-term strategy for your startup or company.
Frameworks can help us navigate the treacherous waters of our lives—they provide clarity by creating structure through which to evaluate situations, deploy shortcuts, and execute sound decisions.
Those are 20 frameworks I have found useful—pick one (or a few) and give them a shot. Let me know what you think!
Special thank you to @drex_jpg for the beautiful visuals! Follow for more.
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Metafy - Employee Experience Manager, Community Support Manager
Launch House - Partnerships Associate, Growth Specialist
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Practice - Head of Marketing
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Free Agency - Sales Lead, Talent Agent for Tech
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We just placed a Talent Agent, Head of Community, Growth Lead, Swiss Army Knife, Account Exec, and several other roles in the last month. Results for featured roles have been awesome! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today’s newsletter. Join the 44,500+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
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Listen now | 20+ principles for your career, relationships, and life
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Listen now | A simple breakdown of the situation and causes
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Today at a Glance:
Incentives are everything—an uber-powerful force governing our interactions, organizations, and society.
Unfortunately, humans are astonishingly bad at establishing incentives—we consistently create systems that invite manipulation and unintended consequences.
The framework for better incentives involves six key pillars: Objectives, Metrics, Anti-Metrics, Stakes & Effects, Skin in the Game, and Clarity & Fluidity.
Incentives: The Failure & The Fix
“Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” — Charlie Munger
Incentives are everything—an uber-powerful force governing our interactions, organizations, and society.
Well-designed incentives have the power to create great outcomes; poorly-designed incentives have the power to…well…create terrible outcomes.
Unfortunately, humans are astonishingly bad at establishing incentives—we consistently create systems that invite manipulation and unintended consequences. More often than not, we wind up in the poorly-designed camp scrambling for answers and quick fixes.
Let’s change that…
In today’s piece, I will share a framework for establishing incentives (that actually create desired outcomes).
Incentives: The Failure
Let’s start with a basic definition of incentives:
Incentives are anything that motivates, inspires, or drives an individual to act in a specific manner. They come in two forms: intrinsic and extrinsic.
Intrinsic incentives are internal—created by self-interest or desire. Extrinsic incentives are external—created by outside factors, typically a reward (positive incentive) or punishment (negative incentive).
For today, we'll be focusing on extrinsic incentives…
In a (very) simple model, extrinsic incentives involve two key components:
Measure: The metric that the individual or group will be judged upon. The measure can be quantitative (KPIs, metrics, etc.) or qualitative.
Target: The level of the measure at which a reward or punishment will be initiated. The target can be specific (you receive your incentive if the KPI hits X level) or general (you receive your incentive if your manager is satisfied with your work).
But there is a real problem here. This simple model of incentives—which will feel familiar if you have ever worked in the government, a large organization, or anywhere really—often leads to undesirable outcomes and unintended consequences.
Goodhart’s Law
Goodhart’s Law is quite simple: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. If a measure of performance becomes a stated goal, humans tend to optimize for it, regardless of any associated consequences. The measure loses its value as a measure!
Goodhart’s Law is named after British economist Charles Goodhart, who referenced the concept in a 1975 article on British monetary policy.
“Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” — Charles Goodhart
But the concept was popularized by anthropologist Marilyn Strathern. In a 1997 paper, she generalized the thinking and called it Goodhart’s Law.
“When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” — Marilyn Strathern
It became a mental model with considerable practical relevance—a phenomenon that has been observed time and again throughout history.
Let's look at a few examples and use them to build a mental model for where incentives go awry.
The Cobra Effect
There were too many cobras in India. The British colonists—worried about the impact of these deadly creatures—started offering bounties for cobra heads.
Locals excitedly began breeding cobras, chopping off their heads, and turning them in to earn the bounties. When the breeding got out of hand, some of the breeders were forced to release the cobras onto the streets, thereby increasing the population of cobras.
Clearly not what the British had in mind…
The British viewed cobra heads as a simple way to measure cobra elimination, so it gave the population an incentive to deliver cobra heads. The result? Locals gamed the system, breeding cobras to earn the bounties.
An incentive designed to reduce the cobra population actually increased it!
Soviet Nails
In order to meet their ambitious goals, the Soviets needed to produce more nails to fuel their industrial complex.
First, Soviet factories established incentives based on the number of nails produced. What happened? The workers produced thousands of tiny nails.
Nevertheless, they persisted, adjusting the incentives to be based on the weight of nails produced. That should fix the tiny nails problem! What happened? The workers produced a few massive nails.
In both cases, the nails were useless.
The Soviet factory managers had viewed nail quantity and nail weight as easy ways to measure production, so they gave their workers incentives based on these measures. The result? A bunch of useless nails.
Amazon's "Hire-to-Fire" Issue
Amazon believed employee turnover was healthy—from the early days, they had created a culture where the bottom 10% should be scrubbed annually in order to continue to upgrade the talent level of the organization.
To incentivize healthy employee turnover rates, it gave its managers a target rate for annual turnover.
The result? Media articles about a “hire-to-fire” practice emerged. Managers had allegedly hired employees they planned to fire in order to meet their turnover targets.
Clearly not what Jeff Bezos had in mind...
Wells Fargo Account Openings
Wells Fargo is a new inductee of the Unintended Consequences Hall of Fame. An instant classic.
Senior leadership of the bank viewed new account openings as an easy way to track business growth, so it gave its junior employees target account opening goals. Employees would be pushed to hit these goals or risk punishment.
The result? Employees opened millions of fake accounts to hit their targets and Wells Fargo was fined billions for the fraud.
A Mental Model for Broken Incentives
With these examples as a backdrop, we can begin to formulate a simple, rough mental model for where incentives seem to go awry.
Poorly-designed incentives typically exhibit one or more of the following three characteristics:
McNamara Fallacy
Narrow Focus
Vanity > Quality
The McNamara Fallacy
The McNamara Fallacy is named after Robert McNamara—the US Secretary of Defense from 1961-1968—whose over-reliance on quantitative metrics led the US astray during the Vietnam War.
The McNamara Fallacy is the flawed assumption that what can't be measured isn't important. It is the tendency to make a decision based on observable, quantitative metrics while ignoring all others.
It leads to a focus on measuring what is easy to measure vs. what is actually important. Cobra heads, nail quantity or weight, employee turnover, and new account openings were all easy to measure quantitatively, but totally missed the bigger picture. All four programs were victims of the McNamara Fallacy.
(Note: I plan to do a full thread and newsletter piece on the McNamara Fallacy in the future, as it is a topic and history worthy of deeper discussion)
Narrow Focus
The narrow focus issue is an objective scoping issue. If you think too narrowly about the desired outcomes of the program, you are more likely to create incentives that miss the forest for the trees.
Using the Wells Fargo example, the desired outcome was not to have more accounts opened at the bank—more appropriate would have been to define the desired outcome as growth in the number of happy, well-serviced customers.
As a rule: When in doubt, zoom out.
Vanity > Quality
Vanity metrics—we’ve all seen them (and probably cared too much about them).
The reliance on vanity metrics—like cobra heads or new account openings—that will impress superiors or the public is a recipe for disaster in incentive design.
Imagine incentivizing a brand social media manager on the number of followers of the account. That person is likely to start buying followers in order to hit these targets. The vanity metric is rarely the quality metric.
So with these in mind, let's craft a better framework for incentives.
Incentives: The Fix
The incentive framework involves six key pillars:
Objectives
Metrics
Anti-Metrics
Stakes & Effects
Skin in the Game
Clarity & Fluidity
It is intended to provide a structure through which to create, evaluate, and adjust incentives. Let's walk through each of the pillars…
Objectives
Deep consideration of the ultimate objectives of the incentives is critical.
What does success look like? This isn’t about the surface level objectives—you need to go deeper.
Without upfront deep thought on objectives, intelligent incentive design is impossible. Start here before moving on.
Metrics
Establish metrics that you will measure to track success.
Importantly, be sure to avoid the McNamara Fallacy—never choose metrics on the basis of what is easily measurable over what is meaningful. Just because it is easy to track a specific KPI, doesn’t mean it is the right KPI to use as a measure.
If you could track and measure one metric that would tell you everything you want to know about your business or organization, what would it be?
Identify a wish list of metrics with no regard for feasibility. Work backwards from there into what is possible.
Anti-Metrics
Even more important than the core metrics, establish "anti-metrics" that you measure to track unintended consequences. I was first tipped off to this idea by Julie Zhou (she calls them counter-metrics), who has done some exceptional thinking and writing on the topics of organizations and growth.
Anti-metrics force you to consider whether your incentives are fixing one problem but creating another.
In the Amazon example, an effective anti-metric may have been average tenure of newly-hired employees by cohort. If you saw this figure dipping dramatically from the start of the employee turnover incentive program, you would know something was wrong.
Stakes & Effects
As with all decisions, it is critical to consider and understand the stakes:
High-Stakes = Costly Failure, Difficult to Reverse
Low-Stakes = Cheap Failure, Easy to Reverse
If you are dealing with a program with high-stakes, you have to conduct a rigorous, second-order effects analysis (pro tip: read my thread on this).
Iterate on your metrics and anti-metrics accordingly.
Skin in the Game
To avoid principal-agent problems, the incentive designer should have skin in the game.
Never allow an incentive to be implemented where the creator participates in the pleasure of the upside, but not the pain in the downside.
Skin in the game improves outcomes.
Clarity & Fluidity
An incentive is only as effective as:
The clarity of its dissemination.
The ability and willingness to adjust it based on new information.
Takeaway: Create even understanding playing fields for all constituents and avoid plan continuation bias.
Conclusion
So to recap the fix, my framework for incentives is as follows:
Objectives: Identify what success looks like. Go deep on the ultimate objectives of the program.
Metrics: Establish metrics to track success. Never settle for what is easy to measure over what is meaningful.
Anti-Metrics: Establish anti-metrics to determine if solving one problem is creating another.
Stakes & Effects: Always consider the stakes (high or low) and adjust the rigor of your second-order effects analysis accordingly.
Skin in the Game: Avoid principal-agent problems by ensuring the incentive designer has skin in the game (i.e. participates in both the pleasure and the pain).
Clarity & Fluidity: Incentives are only as good as the clarity of their dissemination and the ability to adjust based on new information.
I hope you find this framework as productive and helpful as I have. I’d love to see some comments about your experience with it (and any tweaks you would suggest).
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Hyper - Chief of Staff (NEW DROP!)
Olukai - VP of E-Commerce (NEW DROP!)
Consensus - Lead Software Engineer (NEW DROP!)
Scaled - Direct of Operations (NEW DROP!)
Fairchain - Software Engineer, Full Stack (NEW DROP!)
Incandescent - Operations Associate
Practice - Chief of Staff
Maven - GM of Partnerships & Ops
Hatch - Senior PM, Senior Product Marketing Manager
AbstractOps - Head of Engineering
On Deck - Forum Director, CFO Forum, VP Finance
Skio - Founding Engineer
Metafy - Senior Frontend Developer
Commonstock: Community Manager, Social Media Manager, Marketing Designer, Backend Engineer
SuperFarm - VP/Director Account Ops, Scrum Master
Launch House - Community Manager, Community Lead
Free Agency - Chief of Staff
The full board can be found here!
We just placed a Growth Lead, Swiss Army Knife, Account Exec, and several other roles in the last month. Results for featured roles have been awesome! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today’s newsletter. Join the 32,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 715 new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 30,964 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week. Share this on Twitter to help grow the tribe!
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Today at a Glance:
Learning is a skill—but we need a new way to approach learning that is fast, nimble, and tailored for our ever-changing digital reality.
The framework for learning anything: (1) Identify & Establish, (2) Research, (3) Skin in the Game, (4) Engage Community, (5) Teach, and (6) Reflect & Review.
The New Way to Learn
Learning is a skill—arguably the most important skill. But unfortunately, despite its importance to your career and life, it’s not one you’re ever explicitly taught how to approach.
Let’s fix that.
Today, I will share a tactical approach to learning anything.
Introduction
Curiosity and inspiration are not predictable—they strike at random (and often inopportune!) times. But they must be acted on.
Growth is a natural byproduct of acting on curiosity and inspiration.
“Inspiration is perishable. When you have inspiration, act on it right then and there.” - Naval
Ok, so let’s assume you've been bit by the curiosity bug and are ready to act on it. Now what? You’re inspired and motivated to learn, but you don’t even know where to begin.
All your years of school didn't really prepare you for this. The "old way" of researching and learning—reading textbooks cover-to-cover, checking books out of the library, scouring footnotes for primary and secondary sources—is slow, arduous, and a relic of our analog, industrial past. It may work for school (e.g. if you are writing a final thesis or research paper), but it fails spectacularly in the real world.
You need a "new way"—a fast, dynamic, and nimble approach tailored to the new, ever-changing digital reality. I’d like to propose a “new way” for consideration.
This learning framework involves six key steps:
Identify & Establish
Research
Skin in the Game
Engage Community
Teach
Reflect & Review
The general structure is fixed, but its application is intended to be dynamic & iterative.
Let's walk through the steps...
Identify & Establish
The framework begins with a blank page—one that you will progressively fill out as you work through the steps.
Identify the topic and quickly write down everything you know about it. Put the topic at the top of the page and drop in the extent of your current knowledge below it. It’s ok if you know nothing about it. The goal is just to get something down on the page. There are very few things as intimidating as starting from zero, so we can use this quick blast to engage in some mental trickery to get going.
Here’s a simple example of what this start might look like. Nothing fancy (other than my cool snake emoji icon).
I use Notion for my notetaking—I like being able to pull in other links and resources—but anything works (including pen and paper if you are old fashioned).
Paradoxically, starting by writing what you do know is the best way to highlight what you don't know. This first action highlights the gaps in your knowledge and understanding of the topic. The goal here is simply to set the stage—establish the holes before filling them.
Research
This is where the real fun begins—it’s time to learn.
The most effective strategy for research: start horizontal, then go vertical.
Horizontal = Breadth
Vertical = Depth
With apologies for the poor artistry—though I might be able to sell this as an NFT for $2 million—this is a simple graphic of how to think about the time spent in each phase. The bulk of your time and learning will occur in the vertical research phase (red), but the horizontal research phase (green) is critical to foundation-setting.
Allow me to elaborate:
Horiztonal Research
Horizontal research lays the foundation for your learning. When you start horizontal, you gather information across the full breadth of the topic area. This gives you the capacity to "see the entire field”—it draws a surface-level map of the topic.
With horizontal research, it’s perfectly acceptable to keep it simple: Google and Wikipedia (sorry to all of my high school teachers!) are both great tools.
Use your note-taking workspace to document the horizontal information. Take notes on the key pillars of a topic, add screenshots or links where relevant, and mark any particularly interesting areas for a deep-dive.
Note the underlying sources that provided the horizontal information (i.e. look at the Wikipedia footnotes), which will come in handy as guideposts to focus your journey when you go vertical.
Vertical Research
Vertical research is where you dive down the proverbial rabbit hole.
Vertical research was historically much more challenging—it typically required hours of finding and reading long, dense books on a topic. But in the Information Age, we have a diverse array of tools that provide much higher time leverage.
These tools include (but are not limited to):
Newsletters
Podcasts
Expert Networks
Books (The New Way)
A few ideas and perspectives on how to use each tool:
Reddit is a treasure trove of interesting information. It’s great for finding inspiration and curiosity-inducing content, but it’s equally effective for diving deep on a single topic.
Search your topic, find subreddits and threads, read the commentary, and click through to the links. Comment and ask questions where relevant.
Twitter is an amazing source of information if you use it correctly.
Spend some time searching around to find the authority figures on a given topic. Read what they are writing and commenting on, follow their content trail to any longer-form work they are producing.
@ them or DM them if you are feeling ambitious and want to learn more.
Newsletters
Take advantage of the boom in individual newsletters.
Thought leaders on most every topic are writing one, and most of them are free. You can typically use Twitter to find the newsletters quite efficiently.
Podcasts
Podcasts can be hit-or-miss.
Focus on primary sources—discussions with founders, leaders, or experts—avoid low value podcasts with armchair experts commenting on a topic outside of their circle of competence. Look at the number of reviews or listeners to get a feel for the signal-richness of the content before you commit to it.
Listen on 1.25x or 1.5x speed to get better time leverage—this mostly just shortens the pauses and breaks between sentences or questions and answers.
Expert Networks
Modern expert networks or analyst services are my new favorite learning tool. They have been a cheat code for hedge funds for decades, but have only recently become cost-effective for the masses. You can often test them using free trial periods as a starting point.
I use Tegus, which offers a searchable database of thousands of investor-led interviews with industry experts on a wide range of industries, companies, and topics. It’s fast and cost-effective, enabling you to do great primary research without breaking the bank.
Note: Tegus is offering Curiosity Chronicle subscribers a free 2-week trial of the service. Use this link to sign up and try it today!
Books (The New Way)
Reading books is for utility, not vanity.
The old way of reading—cover-to-cover—is for vanity. People love going to cocktail parties and casually saying, “I read 52 books this year.” This used to be me. Don’t do this.
Instead, use books the new way: Find sections or chapters that grab you and dive in there. When it stops grabbing you, put it down and move on.
The old way is for vanity; the new way is for utility.
With these six tools, you’ll be able to go vertical—quickly and effectively—on any topic.
Skin in the Game
If you want to accelerate your learning curve, put some skin in the game.
Skin in the game raises the stakes of your learning. It is a behavioral trick to build deeper incentives to push through roadblocks and progress.
"Skin" can be literal (as in money) or metaphorical (as in personal public commitment). There isn’t one form of “skin” that is more effective than the others—it’s a personal preference.
Some simple examples:
Want to learn more about a specific company? Buy a few shares of the stock.
Want to write an article on X? Commit to it publicly. I do this all the time to force myself to sit down and write!
Want to learn about Web 3.0? Buy an NFT, post it as your photo, join the Discord community.
This isn’t just theoretical. I recently wanted to go deeper on Web 3.0 and NFTs. I was going down the rabbit hole, trying to understand what all the fuss was about, but needed to put some skin in the game.
Enter Cool Cat #3426—and its proud owner, me. Suddenly, my motivation to really understand what I had just purchased, the technology, and the nature of its value (or lack thereof) was up 100x.
In addition to raising the stakes, skin in the game gets you "in it" from a community perspective. I was able to engage with other Cool Cat owners on Twitter, join the Discord community, and talk to other NFT enthusiasts in my network. You'll never learn as much from the outside looking in. You need to get inside.
Skin in the game is your ticket to join the community. Now that you're in, it's time to engage.
Engage Community
Learning is communal, not individual.
Engage with the community to accelerate learning. As anyone who has ever learned a new language knows—immersion is an incredibly powerful force.
Two pieces of tactical advice:
Talk to authority figures
Call your learning circle
Find a few authorities on the topic (from your vertical research process, you will already know who they are)—DM, email, call, ask questions. People are genuinely willing to engage with others in their earnest pursuit of knowledge.
Call 3-5 friends (your learning circle) and talk about what you are learning. They will ask questions that expose holes in your knowledge and point out opinions that will force you to think more deeply.
Community is the key.
Teach
If you want to learn, teach.
Engage in The Feynman Technique. Use simple language (no jargon or acronyms!) to explain what you've learned to a few people. You will very quickly realize how deep your understanding goes.
A simple check: If you can't explain it to a 5-year-old, you probably don't understand it well enough (yet).
Reflect & Review
The learning process is iterative and fluid.
Reflect on the gaps in your knowledge that were exposed through the process—dive deeper to fill them in. Review your note-taking workspace and zoom out to get a full picture of your new learnings.
Conclusion
To recap, my framework for learning anything is as follows:
Identify & Establish: Write down the topic and everything you know about it.
Research: Start horizontal (breadth) and then go vertical (depth). Use modern tools (Reddit, Twitter, newsletters, podcasts, expert networks, and books (the new way) to go deep.
Skin in the Game: Accelerate your learning curve by putting some skin in the game (literally or metaphorically).
Engage Community: Talk to authorities and discuss with your learning circle.
Teach: If you want to learn, teach. Engage in The Feynman Technique.
Reflect & Review: Zoom out to see the gaps. Iterate to fill them.
I hope you find this framework as productive and helpful as I have. I’d love to see some comments about your experience with it (and any tweaks you would suggest).
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Practice - Chief of Staff (NEW DROP!)
Maven - GM of Partnerships & Ops (NEW DROP!)
Hatch - Senior PM, Senior Product Marketing Manager (NEW DROP!)
On Deck - Forum Director, CFO Forum, VP Finance (NEW DROP!)
Skio - Founding Engineer
Metafy - Senior Frontend Developer
Olukai - VP of E-Commerce
Commonstock: Community Manager, Social Media Manager, Marketing Designer, Backend Engineer
SuperFarm - VP/Director Account Ops, Scrum Master
Launch House - Community Manager, Community Lead
AbstractOps - Head of Engineering
Free Agency - Chief of Staff
The full board can be found here!
We just placed a Swiss Army Knife, Head of People, Account Exec, and several other roles in the last month. Featured roles are seeing thousands of impressions, website click-throughs, and significant application traction. If you have any questions about posting a role, please email Pallet and reference my job board.
That does it for today’s newsletter. Join the 30,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Listen now | 20 common logical fallacies to learn, identify, and avoid
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Listen now | The mental model trap and how to avoid getting lost
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Today at a Glance:
Children ask questions to understand the world around them and establish first principles; but somewhere along the way, they are told to stop exploring.
The Socratic Method is a cooperative, argumentative process of asking questions to expose flawed logic, establish first principles, and generate creative, imaginative solutions to complex problems.
It can be put to use in a wide variety of scenarios, including in the worlds of investing, startup building, and education.
Productive Discomfort: The Socratic Method
Humans are born with remarkable curiosity. But somewhere along the way, we are told to stop asking questions. We are told to just accept things. We are told to stop exploring.
The result? Unimaginative, linear minds and atrophied critical thinking skills.
Fortunately, there is a proven strategy for reclaiming your curiosity, stimulating critical thinking, and establishing first principles.
The Socratic Method.
Introduction
The human mind is naturally wired for critical thinking.
Children are born with an innate curiosity - a desire to understand the world and all of its complexities. If you have kids (or have been around them), you’ve seen this in action. They constantly, incessantly ask “Why?” about absolutely everything.
Here’s a common occurrence for any parent:
Mom: “Ok, it’s time for bed. You need to get some sleep.”
Kid: “Why?”
Mom: “Because you need sleep to think clearly and grow.”
Kid: “Why?”
I’ll stop. You can see where this is going…
The reality is they aren’t doing it to be annoying (contrary to what many parents might think!). Children ask questions in order to develop a deeper understanding their existence and surroundings. The world is fascinating. Everything is so new to a child.
They ask questions in an effort to dive deeper, think critically, and establish first principles. And newsflash…it works!
How many times has a parent had the above interaction, only to realize that they themselves do not know the answer to the questions being asked? If open to the idea, it leads to new learning of fundamental truths (e.g. why humans need to sleep!).
Children are the original first principles thinkers.
Unfortunately, as we get older, we are typically told - by teachers, our parents, or otherwise - to stop asking questions. Responses like “Because I said so” or “Because that’s how we’ve always done it” pile up. Our critical thinking muscles begin a slow, steady decay into adulthood. We begin to rely on base assumptions that we have been told are true (but have not independently verified).
In certain cases, this can be (mostly) fine. Heuristics and decision-making razors are helpful in making quick decisions.
But when dealing with more complex edge cases where creativity is required, using heuristics can lead to unimaginative, linear solutions that closely resemble what has been done before.
So how do we fight back, rebuild our critical thinking muscles, and establish first principles?
Enter our powerful tool: The Socratic Method.
History
The Socratic Method is a process of asking and answering questions to stimulate critical thinking and expose and vet underlying assumptions and logic. It is both cooperative and argumentative. It is a strategy for establishing first principles (the basic, foundational truths) in a problem solving process or discussion.
Its aim is to create an environment of productive discomfort for its participants.
The Socratic Method is named after the Greek philosopher, Socrates, who developed it as an alternative method of debate and teaching. Socrates disagreed with the style of the “sophists” of the era - teachers who used rhetoric and gravitas to entertain and persuade students.
Believing that sophists were promoting a self-centered style, he began promoting the Socratic Method as an alternative. The basic structure involved progressive questioning to expose flawed logic, eliminate hypotheses, and sharpen thinking.
Let’s cover how it works…
The Socratic Method in Practice
The Socratic Method is dynamic, but typically follows a general four step structure:
Start with open-ended questions.
Propose ideas based on these questions.
Probe these ideas with progressive questioning.
Repeat steps 2 and 3 until the best ideas are developed.
Imagine your team has encountered a challenge that requires an imaginative solution.
Start at the surface. Start asking questions. What is the problem you are trying to solve? We often waste time and energy trying to solve the "wrong" problem. Identify the “right” problem before you try to solve it!
This is where it gets fun. Dive deeper. Sketch out your current thinking on the problem, including the origins of that thinking. Open the floor for targeted questioning. Why do you think this? Is the thinking too vague? What is it based upon? Challenge each other (collaboratively!).
Challenge the assumptions underlying the original thinking. Why do you believe this to be true? How do you know it’s true? How would you know if you were wrong? Identify the source of beliefs on a problem. Be ruthless in evaluating their integrity and validity.
Evaluate the evidence used to support the thinking. What concrete evidence do I have? How credible is it? What “hidden evidence” may exist?
Understand the consequences of being wrong. Can this be quickly fixed? How costly is this mistake? Always understand the stakes.
Evaluate the potential alternatives. What alternative beliefs or viewpoints might exist? Why might they be superior? Why do others believe them to be true? What do they know that I don’t? Evaluate them on their merits and ask these same fundamental questions about them.
After zooming in, zoom out. What was my original thinking? Was it correct? If not, where did I err? What conclusions can I draw from the process about systemic errors in my thinking?
So we have seen how it works. Let’s cover some practical applications of the Socratic Method…
The Socratic Method in Investing
The best investors have long been proponents of the Socratic Method. They build structure to enforce a Socratic approach to the investment decision-making process.
Every proposal before the “investment committee” is questioned and dissected from a variety of angles (at least in theory). It makes it difficult for an investment based on flimsy assumptions to pass through.
Note: This doesn’t mean every investment made ends up being a successful one! It simply ensures that investments are grounded in clear, evidence-backed assumptions (even if changing circumstances later disprove those assumptions). Surface-level thinking is quickly rooted out from the system.
The Socratic Method in Startups
Elon Musk is an advocate of the method, having honed it during his brief stint at Queen’s College.
“One particular thing that I learned at Queen’s was how to work collaboratively with smart people and make use of the Socratic method to achieve commonality of purpose.” - Elon Musk
He came to rely on it at his various startups, including Tesla and SpaceX, where creative, imaginative solutions for large, complex problems are a requirement of staying in business.
The Socratic Method can be a powerful unlock for ambitious teams. Question base assumptions, ask “why?” incessantly, and expose flawed logic to uncover better hypotheses. Tesla and SpaceX are just two such examples - there are many more.
The Socratic Method in Education
The Socratic Method is a mainstay of legal and medical education curriculums, but has been forgotten in most other fields. Most programs favor lecturing - it’s easier. Few encourage targeted, rigorous questioning or environments of productive discomfort for the professor and students.
This is one reason why our critical thinking muscles wither as we get older. We aren’t training them! Change is most definitely coming. Programs like Synthesis School are specifically designed to create productive discomfort and encourage questioning in children.
The Socratic Method is simple, yet as these varied examples have shown, it is dynamic, powerful, and useful across a wide range of situations, particularly when you are looking to challenge the status quo with new, inventive solutions.
That does it for today’s newsletter. I hope you found it helpful and will put these new learnings to good use!
Please share it and help me grow this amazing tribe of curiosity seekers!
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
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Free Agency - Chief of Staff
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Avicado - Marketing Manager
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We have had a bunch of hires through the board and the results for featured roles have been insane! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today. Join the 28,500+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
*Note: Nothing contained herein should be construed as personal investment advice.
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Today at a Glance
Cognitive biases are systemic errors in thinking that negatively impact decision-making quality and outcomes.
Combatting cognitive biases relies first and foremost on establishing a level of awareness of the biases, but each has its own specific combat strategies as well.
Overview, examples, and combat tactics for common biases, including Loss Aversion, Endowment Effect, Ben Franklin Effect, Availability Bias, Survivorship Bias, Ikea Effect, Hindsight Bias, Plan Continuation Bias, Gambler’s Fallacy, and Curse of Knowledge.
The Cognitive Bias Handbook - Part II
Cognitive biases are systemic errors in thinking that negatively impact decision-making quality and outcomes. I recently shared a Twitter thread covering the basics of 20 cognitive biases - but it was admittedly surface-level (280 characters only allows for so much depth and nuance on a topic!).
Last week, I went deeper, with Part I of The Cognitive Bias Handbook, covering 10 common cognitive biases, including examples and ways to combat each. Today, I will cover the remaining 10.
As a reminder, this two-part newsletter series was split as follows:
Part I (last week) covered Fundamental Attribution Error, Bandwagon Effect, Egocentric Bias, Naïve Realism, Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon, Pygmalion Effect, Confirmation Bias, Backfire Effect, Anchoring, and Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Part II (today) covers Loss Aversion, Endowment Effect, Ben Franklin Effect, Availability Bias, Survivorship Bias, Ikea Effect, Hindsight Bias, Plan Continuation Bias, Gambler’s Fallacy, and Curse of Knowledge.
This handbook is designed to be a resource you can save and come back to whenever you need a refresher. Given the volume and importance of the information, I am considering working with an illustrator to convert it into a physical/digital book that you can reference as well. Stay tuned!
Without further ado, let’s dive into Part II…
Loss Aversion
What is it?
The pain of losing something is more powerful than the pleasure of winning it.
Loss aversion was first identified by famed behavioral scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, who found that humans had a tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Accordingly, people were typically willing to take actions to avoid losses that they wouldn’t have taken to seek gains.
Economists had previously assumed humans were rational actors - that $100 in losses would drive the same amount of pain as $100 in gains would create pleasure. Wrong. Humans are enigmatic creatures!
Examples
Investors - professional and amateur alike - exhibit loss aversion. The pain and fear of realizing a loss often leads investors to hold onto losing positions much longer than they should.
Gamblers who are in the red for a given night often risk much more to try to get back into the black (above breakeven) than they should.
How do you combat it?
Loss aversion is hardwired into our primate brains, but as always, awareness is the first step to fighting back against its influence.
Avoid emotional connection to your possessions - whether they are investments, material items, or money. Attempt to distance your emotions from the decision-making process where possible.
Ask questions:
Am I being objective and rational in this decision?
Am I letting my emotions influence my decision?
Am I too connected emotionally to make a rational decision?
If you are too connected to a given decision, you may need to outsource it to an objective third-party.
The Endowment Effect
What is it?
A close relative of loss aversion, the endowment effect (sometimes called “divestiture aversion”) says that once we have something, we don't want to give it up.
Specifically, we demand more to give up an object than we would be willing to pay to acquire it. In slightly more scientific terms, willingness to pay (“WTP”) to acquire an object is typically lower than willingness to accept (“WTA”) to give up an object.
Examples
In a classic experiment performed by Richard Thaler, two groups of people were placed in a room and given either (a) a fancy pen or (b) a coffee mug. They were then asked if they would be willing to trade their item for the alternate item. Both groups expressed an unwillingness to trade their endowed item for the alternate item, even though they had similar objective values.
In another study of NCAA Final Four ticket-holders, it was found that their WTA was ~10x+ higher than their WTP for the same tickets. Insane!
How do you combat it?
The path to fighting back against the endowment effect is, unsurprisingly, very similar to that of loss aversion.
Force a level of hyper-awareness of the irrational gap between your WTA and your WTP on a possession. Use your imagination to distance yourself from the possession and think objectively about its value and utility.
It’s never perfect, but it’s a start.
The Ben Franklin Effect
What is it?
"He that has once done you a kindness will be more ready to do you another, than he whom you yourself have obliged." - Benjamin Franklin
Put simply, doing one favor for a person makes you more likely to do another favor for that person than if you had received a favor from them.
Humans love to reinforce our own self-perceptions. If we perform a favor for another person, we have become a “favor-giver” in our minds. We become more likely to reinforce this self-perception by performing another favor.
The Ben Franklin Effect says that this reinforcing effect is more powerful than the desire to return a favor when one has been done for you.
Examples
The best example of The Ben Franklin Effect is of how Ben Franklin’s eponymous effect was born.
Early in his career, Benjamin Franklin once sought to convert a political adversary into a fan. He did so by requesting a favor from the adversary (he asked for a book from his personal library). Flattered by the request, the adversary quickly obliged and loaned Franklin the book.
After he returned the book (with a nice thank you note!), Franklin noted that the adversary became a neutral supporter in all future interactions.
By drawing out a favor from the hater, he turned him into a fan (or at least a neutral bystander).
How do you combat it?
With the Ben Franklin Effect, rather than focusing on how to combat it, it is perhaps more impactful to think about the best ways to use it to your advantage in your own life.
As a brand or an individual, developing an awareness of this cognitive bias should allow you to think creatively about leveraging its power for converting haters into fans.
Availability Bias
What is it?
Humans love shortcuts.
We evaluate situations based on the most readily available data, which tends to be what can be immediately recalled from memory. Our minds perceive what can be immediately recalled as being of the utmost importance. We give ourselves too much credit.
Availability Bias is the tendency to massively overweight recent and new information in formulating opinions or making decisions.
Examples
The impact of the news cycle on our opinions, thinking, and decisions is perhaps the best example of Availability Bias in action. Its persistent negativity cements a belief that the world is a dark place.
When exposed to consistent news stories about terrorist attacks or child abductions, humans significantly overestimate the actual frequency and likelihood of these events taking place.
Our irrational fear of insanely low probability events (like shark attacks and plane crashes) is an example of this in action.
How do you combat it?
There are two key ways to fight Availability Bias:
Focus on base rates (the actual prevalence of an event or feature in a given sample). In the example of shark attacks, compare the number of shark attacks globally to the number of people who went in the ocean. Slow down and consider the actual numbers.
Turn off the news. Seriously, just stop watching the news. Ironically, it makes you less well-informed about the world around you. More consumption creates noise bottlenecks.
There are other tactics and strategies, but these two will get you a long way.
Survivorship Bias
What is it?
History is written by the victors.
But concentrating on "survivors" and systematically ignoring "casualties" leads to distortions in our conclusions. Namely, we overestimate the odds of success because we only read about the successes.
Examples
The story of the WWII planes is a classic (you can read about it in this thread), but there are so many examples of Survivorship Bias in action.
When you only read stories about the garage startups that became trillion dollar companies (Apple, Microsoft, etc.), you fail to realize the insanely low probabilities of this level of success. What about all of the garage startups that failed? What about all of the entrepreneurs who double-mortgaged their house and then went bankrupt?
How do you combat it?
Combatting Survivorship Bias involves two critical approaches:
Recognize the potential for “hidden” or “silent” evidence. What might you have learned from the casualties that is masked by the lack of data on them?
With (1) in mind, examine and study the base rates (similar to the approach with Availability Bias). The base rates hold the truth.
Develop a keen awareness of the potential for missing evidence and its impact on your judgement of probability of success.
The Ikea Effect
What is it?
If you build it, you love it.
Named after Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer famous for its build-it-yourself products, this cognitive bias says that people ascribe significantly more value to objects that they have created or assembled, irrespective of the final quality of the object.
Scientists believe this happens because we infuse our own self worth into the object, thereby increasing its value in our minds.
Examples
Homeowners will frequently overvalue homes that they have customized or built themselves.
Businesses often seek to exploit the Ikea Effect by having you customize or build your product prior to purchase. They recognize that the individualized experience enhances the feeling of ownership and increases WTP.
How do you combat it?
There are several tactics that can be helpful:
Ask for objective feedback. Solicit unbiased feedback from a third-party source. They won’t lie to you the way your emotions might.
Take a break. Temporarily remove yourself from the creation process and zoom out to see the bigger picture of the item, its quality, and the broader landscape.
Develop an awareness of your emotional attachments. As with all cognitive biases, awareness is key. Recognize your emotional attachment to an item and try to distance yourself from it.
The Ikea Effect isn’t particularly harmful in most cases, but these tactics will help you combat it on balance.
Hindsight Bias
What is it?
Hindsight Bias (sometimes referred to as “creeping determinism”) says that humans have a tendency to believe that events of the past were more predictable than they actually were.
We examine the past with the benefit of hindsight but fail to recognize its impact on our thinking. It generally leads to overconfidence, prevents acceptance of responsibility, and causes people to create and distort memories in order to align with a false belief of what had occurred.
Examples
When asked to predict the outcome of a Senate vote, 58% of participants in a study responded that the bill would pass. The bill passed, at which point the participants were asked if they had thought it would pass. At this point, ~80% said they had known it would pass. Participants were distorting the past to align with what happened in reality.
Investors fall victim to this frequently. If you’ve ever thought or heard that the outcome of an earnings release was “so obvious” after the fact, you’re witnessing Hindsight Bias in action.
How do you combat it?
First things first, always remember that the world is extremely complex and you absolutely cannot predict the future.
Next, with big, impactful decisions, take notes on your decision-making process and the key variables impacting your thinking. This will prevent you from being a revisionist when you look back at it in a post-mortem.
As an investor, these strategies can be very helpful, as they will prevent you from missing out on the learnings from your failures that will make you a better investor.
Plan Continuation Bias
What is it?
Humans love structure.
Plans provide structure, so even when the plan appears to be failing (or no longer an appropriate fit for a given situation), we have a tendency to want to continue along with them.
This creates a lot of issues. The dangers of a rigid "stick to the plan!" mentality are very real.
Examples
Anyone who has worked in a professional setting has experienced Plan Continuation Bias in the wild. Particularly in large, bureaucratic organizations, the desire to “stick to the plan” and “stay in your lane” is built into the culture.
The world of sports has myriad examples of this bias in action as well. How many teams have lost matches because they were unwilling to adapt? The best teams (and coaches) tend to come back after halftime with a revised approach, experiencing a surge from a refreshed strategy and plan of attack.
How do you combat it?
The two keys to combatting Plan Continuation Bias:
Have a clear North Star. What is the ultimate goal? It’s not to create a certain type of rocket - it’s to get to space as cost-effectively and safely as possible. Make the North Star clear (both internally and externally).
Adopt a flexible mindset. Rigidity is for bureaucrats - leave it for them to own. Be dynamic and foster a flexible, growth-oriented culture and mindset.
The Gambler’s Fallacy
What is it?
Humans are naturally quite bad with probabilities.
The Gambler's Fallacy says that we have a tendency to believe that past events alter future outcomes, when the events are entirely independent and identically distributed.
Examples
The most famous example of this occurred in Monte Carlo Casino in 1913, when it is alleged that a roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row (which has a probability of occurring of ~1 in 67 million). Gamblers watching the events lost millions by betting on red, reasoning that the wheel was “due for a red".
(Note: If you are at a casino and the roulette wheel lands on black 26 times in a row, you should probably just leave, as it might be the case that the game is broken or rigged).
How do you combat it?
Awareness here is crucial. When you are dealing with random, independent events, always remind yourself that nothing is “due” to occur.
Focusing on the independence of the events is a solid technique - this plane has no idea that a lot of other planes have safely completed trips before it, and therefore they have no bearing on whether this plane will land safely or not.
The Curse of Knowledge
What is it?
A classic in the business world, the Curse of Knowledge says that experts (or generally, intelligent people) tend to make the flawed assumption that others have the same background and knowledge on a topic as they do.
These individuals are unable to teach or lead in an effective manner for those still coming up the learning curve.
They are literally “cursed” with knowledge that prevents them from teaching effectively.
Examples
The Curse of Knowledge is commonly seen with professors, business leaders, or “experts” of specific fields.
They assume the audience has a baseline level of knowledge, but this assumption is often unfounded. It leads to frustration and cultural tension in both sides of the teacher-student relationship.
How do you combat it?
As the teacher, always be aware of the basis of your understanding of a topic. If it is based on years of accumulated expertise, you have to bring others up the learning curve prior to building upon it.
The ELI5 (“Explain It To Me Like I’m 5”) rule works well - assume you are teaching the topic to a 5-year-old until proven otherwise.
As a student, communicate openly on the gaps in your foundational understanding on a more advanced topic. If it is in a group setting, chances are that someone else is feeling the same way and just afraid to say it!
So that does it for Part 2 of The Cognitive Bias Handbook, covering Loss Aversion, Endowment Effect, Ben Franklin Effect, Availability Bias, Survivorship Bias, Ikea Effect, Hindsight Bias, Plan Continuation Bias, Gambler’s Fallacy, and Curse of Knowledge.
As mentioned, given the volume and importance of the information, I am considering working with an illustrator to convert it into a physical/digital book that you can reference in future. If there is enough demand for it, I’ll definitely pull it together.
Stay tuned!
Sahil’s Job Board - Featured Opportunities
Launch House - Community Lead (New & Exciting!)
Free Agency - Chief of Staff (New & Exciting!)
Commonstock - Community Manager, Marketing Designer
Panther - Customer Delight Manager
Metafy - Senior Product Designer, Senior Technical Recruiter
Vise - Head of Demand Gen, Product Marketing Manager, PM
Beyond Protocol - Director of Ops, Director of Business Development
Avicado - Marketing Manager, Data Consultant
Pesto Tech - Account Executive
Pallet - Full Stack Software Engineer
Atreides Management - Data Analyst
The full board can be found here!
We have had a bunch of hires through the board and the results for featured roles have been insane! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today. Join the 27,500+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Listen now | Part I: The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Fundamental Attribution Error, and more
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
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Today at a Glance
Inversion is a simple, powerful mental model for solving complex problems.
When problems become challenging to solve forwards, they may be more readily solved backwards.
Inversion has a wide variety of applications, ranging from investing to business to leadership to relationships.
Invert, Always Invert
The world is an exceptionally complicated and competitive arena. On any given day, you wake up, encounter a wide array of challenging, multivariate problems, make decisions with highly-imperfect information, and then plan to do it all over again the next day.
To outperform in this complicated and competitive arena, you need serious problem-solving skills. Fortunately, contrary to what many of you have been told, these skills can be learned.
Today, I’d like to cover inversion - a simple, powerful mental model for thinking clearly and solving complex problems.
The History of Inversion
When solving problems, the human mind is wired to think in linear, logical, forward terms. This is (probably, I’m not a scientist!) due to the types of problems our ancestors faced - avoiding getting eaten by large animals, hunting other large animals, searching for the next meal, etc. These problems were inherently ephemeral and discrete - they had clear lines of action/reaction and obvious allies and enemies.
But as humanity entered the Agricultural Age, followed by the Industrial Age, followed by now the Digital Age, our problems seemed to change. They got much more complex. As Notorious B.I.G. famously said, “Mo technology, mo problems” (or something like that?).
As the problems get increasingly complex, the forward, logical process evolved in our ancestors often fails. Enter our simple, powerful mental model: inversion.
Let’s start with the basics. What is inversion?
Inversion is a mental model and thinking tool used by some of the world’s greatest thinkers and problem solvers. Simply put, it says that when problems become challenging to solve forwards, they may be more readily solved backwards.
Inversion as a general thinking tool has been around for millennia. Stoic philosophers would perform an exercise they called “premeditatio malorum” - roughly translating to “the pre-meditation of evils” - in which they would imagine the worst case scenario ahead of time. They believed that this exercise would force them to engage in behavior and make plans to avoid this outcome.
The more formal mental model was popularized by German mathematician Carl Jacobi in the mid-1800s. Jacobi was famous for his work in advancing the field of elliptic functions. Wikipedia tells me elliptic functions are “a special kind of meromorphic functions, that satisfy two periodicity conditions” - which provided approximately zero clarity, so I’ll just stick to my lane.
When faced with difficult problems (which happened frequently!), Jacobi had a strategy: “Man muss immer umkehren.”
The loose translation: “Invert, always invert.”
Jacobi frequently used this strategy if he were to be stumped on a challenging math problem. Rather than continuing to look at it the same way (forwards), he would restate it in inverse form (backwards). This new, creative perspective often allowed him to solve the problem more easily.
Fast forward 100+ years and inversion went mainstream when Charlie Munger made one classic, quintessentially pithy remark:
“All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.”
Munger realized that forward, logical thinking can only take you so far. To solve certain problems, you have to think differently.
Inversion is just that: a method for thinking about a problem differently. It requires you to look at things from a different angle to embrace a new perspective. Just as the captain surveys the battlefield for a new vector of attack, you too have to uncover a novel approach.
Perhaps more importantly, inversion trains your mind to think dynamically. Athletes have long known that training in a single plane leads to stasis. The same principle applies to the mind. Inversion trains it from multiple angles.
But let’s get practical. How and where can you apply it in your life?
Inversion in Investing
Warren Buffett famously stated that there were only two rules of investing:
"Rule #1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget Rule #1."
Buffett (and his business partner Charlie Munger) have often evangelized the benefits of simply avoiding stupidity vs. seeking brilliance. This is a classic example of inversion in action.
When it comes to investing, the first point to internalize is that achieving long-term outperformance is extremely challenging (some would argue impossible!).
(Note: If anyone tells you otherwise, you should run in the other direction!)
Applying inversion, rather than solving for how to achieve outperformance, try solving for how to achieve underperformance. This sounds crazy, but bear with me…
What type of behaviors, thought patterns, and decisions would effectively guarantee you underperform the market? Said differently, how do you guarantee you break Buffett's Rule #1 and lose money?
By answering these questions, you are eliminating a lot of actions that may have crept into your investing process and scuttled your performance goals. Through this process of elimination, you may find a cleaner, shorter list of behaviors and actions that will help you to craft a strategy for outperformance.
Inversion in Startups & Business
For most startups and businesses, defining and executing against a strategy to drive durable, long-term growth is the primary priority. Grow or die.
But in a high-stakes, competitive market, deciding on the "right" strategy can often be incredibly difficult. There are simply too many options, too many variables, and too many decisions to make along the way.
Inversion can help. Here’s how:
Conduct a pre-mortem analysis - your own version of the "premeditatio malorum" of the Stoic philosophers - of the different strategies and levers. For a given strategy, ask a few questions:
If this were to fail, why did it fail?
How might we have avoided this failure?
What are the consequences of this failure?
If you perform this exercise across the various considered strategies for your startup or business, the answer of which strategy to pursue will likely come into clear view. The pre-mortem analysis can be a very helpful exercise for cutting through the noise and making quick, effective decisions.
Inversion in Leadership
There are countless books on how to be an effective leader. But when you're dropped into a new context and asked to lead, these books can only take you so far. Leadership is not a one-size-fits-all endeavor. Every new situation requires a new approach to leadership. So how do you lead?
Just invert the problem.
Ask yourself a few key questions:
How would I fail to lead?
How would I fail to garner the respect of my team?
If I were a team member, what would really piss me off about this new leader?
Answer these questions honestly. Thinking about the problem differently (backwards!) will start you down the right path.
Inversion in Relationships
I’m no relationship expert, but I do know that human relationships are arguably the most complex "problem" in nature.
How do you foster a strong, healthy relationship? There is no easy answer, but you can start by inverting the problem.
What behaviors or actions would ruin this relationship?
Now avoid those! It's definitely not perfect, but it's a start.
As you can see, inversion is really quite simple - yet as these varied examples have shown, it is dynamic, powerful, and useful across a range of situations.
So the next time you encounter a challenging problem, just remember…
“Man muss immer umkehren.”
Invert, always invert.
The Bloomboard - Featured Opportunities
Pallet - Full Stack Software Engineer
Vise - Head of Demand Gen, Product Marketing Manager, PM
Beyond Protocol - Director of Ops, Director of Business Development
Metafy - Senior Product Designer, Senior Technical Recruiter
Panther - Customer Delight Manager
Avicado - Marketing Manager, Data Consultant
Commonstock - Community Manager, Marketing Designer
Atreides Management - Data Analyst
Synthesis - Head of People, VP Growth, Technical Recruiter
Pesto Tech - Account Executive
The full board can be found here!
We have had a bunch of hires through the board and the results for featured roles have been insane (one role had 200+ applications in 1 week)! If you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for today’s newsletter. Enjoy this? Join the 24,750+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 500+ new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 23,529 others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week!
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Principles of Effective Storytelling
Storytelling is a superpower. But it is - for one reason or another - an underrated one. It is rarely talked about alongside other key traits of highly-successful people. Instead, we glamorize traits like intelligence, creativity, and focus, calling these the “keys to success,” often completely ignoring the role that storytelling may play in the trajectories of great women and men.
This misses the mark. Storytelling, I would contend, is one of the most important “weapons” to have in your arsenal. It is a key to unlocking growth in your writing, startups, marketing, business, career, or life. Moreover, it is not genetically endowed - anyone can become a great storyteller!
So let’s begin our storytelling journey today…
Here are 10+ principles of effective storytelling (that you can start using today):
Clarity of Purpose
The best storytellers always define a clear purpose prior to crafting their story.
What is the story trying to achieve? What does success look like with this story? Do you have a burning desire to tell this story? If so, why?
If your answers to these questions are loose or dynamic, you’re going to have a difficult time capturing your audience from the start. The audience feeds off of your commitment and clarity. If you are lacking either, they will feel it. Guaranteed.
Commit to answering these key questions before doing anything else.
Define the Audience
Every great story begins with a well-defined audience. The story you tell has to be catered to the audience to whom you will deliver it.
Who is the audience? What do they consciously (or subconsciously!) want from the story?
Be deliberate with this exercise. It will determine how you approach structure, emotion, novelty, and many of the other storytelling principles we will cover later in this piece.
Be ruthlessly honest with yourself. The audience may look different than you expect.
Establish Structure
“People have forgotten how to tell a story. Stories don’t have a middle or an end any more. They usually have a beginning that never stops beginning.” – Steven Spielberg
Stories need structure! Imagine your story as a house - the structure is the foundation of that house. A flimsy foundation makes for a flimsy house - a sturdy foundation makes for a sturdy house. Moreover, a sturdy foundation allows the architect to get more creative with what goes on top of it, knowing that the ground will hold.
There are structural archetypes you can use or leverage. Clear narrative arcs (like the “hero’s journey” often used by Pixar) work well.
If you are struggling to establish structure, try using “the story spine” framework, first created by playwright Kenn Adams. It goes like this:
Once upon a time there was [blank]. Every day, [blank]. One day [blank]. Because of that, [blank]. Until finally [bank].
It has helped me more times than I can count. Fill it in and watch your story take shape.
Weave in the Emotion
Emotion is what makes great stories stick.
Think about your favorite stories. How did they make you feel? It’s a safe bet that they elicited a strong emotional response - positive or negative.
Take it one step further. Watch your favorite movie. Using emojis in a note document, map out your emotions (and the strength of each) that you are feeling at various points throughout during the movie. Your note doc may look something like this:
😂😁😫😤😍☹️😆
Learn from this. The best stories elicit deep, varied emotional responses. When you are approaching your own storytelling, make sure to weave emotion into the foundational fabric of what you create.
Infuse Novelty
Every great story is infused with novelty.
Novelty comes in many different forms: Fresh, new perspectives. Surprising insights. Shock-and-awe moments. Unexpected twists.
Novelty is what makes your audience say: “Oh, wow!” It is what catches them off-guard, what distances them from their linear ways of thinking. It immediately signals that this isn’t like anything they have seen, read, or experienced before.
Are you meeting this burden? If you’re falling short, dig deeper.
Create Contrasts
Storytelling expert Nancy Duarte coined the simple “what is vs. what could be” framework for creating contrasts in your stories. This framework forces you to create contrasts to craft a captivating narrative.
First, describe the reality (“what is”). Next, describe the potential future (“what could be”). The audience will want to lean in - to understand why the world is not the way it could be. They will become invested in that potential future (because it is so different from the reality you portrayed).
You have them - now you can take them along on that journey with you!
Suspend Reality
Disney is the greatest storytelling empire of all time. They have the best IP in the world, but more importantly, they do more with that IP than anyone can imagine.
Walt Disney was famous for his focus on suspending reality for his audiences - allowing them to experience his new reality while still being in their reality.
“There’s always room for a story that can transport people to another place.” – J.K. Rowling
Take a lesson from the best. Suspend reality.
(Note: This thread from my friend Trung Phan dives deep on some of Disney’s insane commitments to storytelling at their theme parks)
Keep It Simple
“Make it simple, but significant.” - Don Draper
A good story may be complex, but a great story is always simple.
One way to test your story: Try to elevator pitch the story to an uninformed party. Are they able to understand it? Could they repeat it back to you or share it with a friend in a similarly simple manner? If not, you still have work to do.
When in doubt, simplify!
Foster Community
Shared community is an insanely powerful force.
The best stories (and the best storytellers) foster community - they elicit a sense of shared purpose, shared membership in a group, or shared experience. Stories that build communities last forever.
Note: As many of you will undoubtedly point out, this one is a double-edged sword. Some of the most terrible dictators and leaders in history used storytelling to foster a community aligned with their aims. It cuts both ways - it can be a force for good or a force for evil.
Make It Shareable
Stories are meant to be shared.
The story “K-factor” - a viral marketing metric for growth - should be high. The K-factor is defined as the number of “invites” sent by each customer (or audience member) multiplied by the conversion of these invites.
So what you really want to see is an audience that is naturally evangelizing your story with their individual communities. Stories with high K-factors spread like a wildfire.
This requires high shareability. To enhance the shareability of your story: Keep it simple and make it easy to “take down” into shorter, alternative versions.
Draft Fast, Edit Slow
Most great writers and storytellers agree on one thing: starting is the hardest part.
There is nothing more daunting than a blank page. The key: start fast, but edit slow.
Get a draft down quickly - don’t worry about how bad it is. Just get it down. Then slow down - edit, write, and rewrite as necessary.
This tactic will allow you to get past “blank page anxiety” and just get moving. Remember, a body in motion tends to stay in motion!
So those are 10+ principles of effective storytelling that you can start using today. If you do take the leap and start using them, I guarantee you’ll unlock growth across the diverse realms of your life.
I hope you found this newsletter helpful. If you did, please do share it with your friends and family!
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Hedgehogs & Foxes
What can hedgehogs and foxes teach us about startups, entrepreneurship, investing, and growth? A lot.
For today’s newsletter, let me take you down the rabbit (er, fox) hole on a mental model on vision, focus, and the journey from good to great.
Let's start at the beginning...
In the 8th century BC, a Greek poet named Archilochus penned a line that has stood the test of time.
"The fox knows many things; the hedgehog knows one big thing."
In the thousands of years since it was written, the meaning of Archilochus’ words has been debated by many of the greatest philosophers, historians, writers and thinkers.
In a literal sense, the fox has an array of tricks at his disposal, but is defeated by the hedgehog's singular (and spiky) defense. In a figurative sense, Archilochus is highlighting the difference between those with singular vision and those with more scattered inspirations.
The dichotomy of the hedgehog and the fox entered the more mainstream lexicon in 1953, when philosopher Isaiah Berlin published an essay entitled, The Hedgehog and the Fox, which would go on to be one of his most popular and well-regarded works.
Berlin's essay sought to divide history's great writers and thinkers into two groups:
Hedgehogs: who view the world through the lens of a single, all-encompassing idea
Foxes: who draw upon myriad experiences and cannot view the world through the lens of a single idea
“For there exists a great chasm between those, on one side, who relate everything to a single central vision, one system, less or more coherent or articulate, in terms of which they understand, think and feel – a single, universal, organizing principle in terms of which alone all that they are and say has significance – and, on the other side, those who pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory, connected, if at all, only in some de facto way, for some psychological or physiological cause, related to no moral or aesthetic principle.” - Isaiah Berlin, The Hedgehog and the Fox, 1953
In The Hedgehog and the Fox, Berlin largely focused on categorizing writers and thinkers into these two groups. But he also - perhaps unintentionally - sparked the concept to leap into a new domain.
Leadership and business.
Enter stage left, Jim Collins...
In 2001, renowned author Jim Collins released Good to Great, a book exploring why certain companies are able to achieve greatness after long periods of mediocrity (and why others don’t).
In it, Collins referenced The Hedgehog and the Fox in building out what he referred to as The Hedgehog Concept. Collins asserted that the leaders of the good-to-great companies were all hedgehogs - people with a singular, all-encompassing vision.
These leaders were uniquely capable of taking the complexity of their businesses and markets and simplifying it into a unifying idea.
The Hedgehog Concept is a simple framework for identifying that unifying idea or vision.
It is found at the center of:
What you are passionate about
What drives your economic engine
What you can be the best at
This last point is nuanced and worth a brief aside...
What can you be the best at?
Most people and companies have a very tough time with this question. It's not about a process to become the best. It's not about a strategy, plan, or roadmap. It's a simple, self-reflective exercise in identifying what game you should be playing.
Here's one way to go about it:
Map a list of skills or attributes on a page. Where do you spike? Where do you lag? Mark the map with pluses (+) and minuses (-) accordingly. Reflect on your map.
Questions to ask:
What game am I playing?
Am I uniquely positioned to "win" that game?
What game should I be playing?
The key point here is that succeeding on the journey from good to great requires you (or your company) to play a game that you can be great at! Far too many people and companies spend years languishing in the valley of mediocrity simply because they were playing the wrong game.
Ok, after that brief aside (which probably deserves its own piece in the future), back to hedgehogs and foxes...
We have established a mental model: Foxes have multiple motivations, while hedgehogs have a singular focus.
So where might you apply this mental model in practice?
Investing
Whether you are investing in startups or mature public companies, understanding management and their motivations is of paramount importance.
This is often easier said than done.
Try asking a simple, clarifying question: Is the leader a hedgehog or a fox?
It can be a tricky question to answer. It hits a very common investor blindspot. Investors tend to fall in love with foxes. They are dynamic, social, and multi-talented. Hedgehogs may not be any of these things, but with their singular focus, they are always in the fight.
The best investors - the ones with the longest track records of success, not the “flash in the pan” hotshots - go to great lengths to understand management motivations and identify the hedgehogs. The investors I admire most, some of whom I have the privilege to call friends and mentors, share this in common.
In addition to the legends you all know (Buffett, Munger, etc.), Ho Nam (of the Uber-successful Altos Ventures) has written a great piece on this and Gavin Baker and Dennis Hong talk and write about this often.
So the mental model clearly applies to investing, but what else?
Personal Development
For investing, you are evaluating others, but you can also use this mental model to evaluate yourself.
Are you a hedgehog or a fox? Are you working toward a singular, unifying vision? Or are you pulled apart by a variety of motivations?
Importantly, a point that I have yet to address is that the characterization (hedgehog or fox) actually lies on a spectrum. It is not an absolute. You can be (and probably are!) a blend of the two.
In his highly-regarded book On Grand Strategy, Yale professor John Lewis Gaddis points out that Abraham Lincoln likely embodied features of both the hedgehog and the fox.
He had a unifying vision, but used certain fox-like means and characteristics to achieve his goals.
Be ruthlessly honest and reflect on where you lie on the spectrum. Most of us (myself included!) will find that we are more fox than hedgehog.
If that is the case, try using Jim Collins' Hedgehog Concept to identify your unifying vision, something we can all benefit from having. We can all take steps to be more hedgehog-like.
The hedgehog and the fox becomes a mental model you can't unsee.
It will force you to think carefully about your personal motivations and provide a clear lens through which to examine and evaluate companies and management teams.
For more, I highly recommend the books mentioned in this piece, including Good to Great, On Grand Strategy, The Hedgehog and the Fox.
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Mental Razors
Razors are rules that simplify decisions.
20+ powerful razors (to help you cut through life’s noise):
The ELI5 Razor
Complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of true understanding.
If you can’t explain it to a 5-year-old, you don’t really understand it. If someone uses a lot of complexity and jargon to explain something to you, they probably don’t understand it.
Munger’s Rule of Opinions
“I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” - Charlie Munger
Opinions aren’t free. You have to work to earn the right to have them.
The Taleb “Look the Part” Razor
If forced to choose between two options of seemingly equal merit, choose the one that doesn’t look the part. The one who doesn’t look the part has had to overcome much more to achieve its status than the one who fit in perfectly.
The Bezos Regret Minimization Framework
The goal is to minimize the number of regrets in life.
When faced with a difficult decision:
Project yourself into the future
Look back on the decision
Ask "Will I regret not doing this?"
Take action
The Boaster’s Razor
Truly successful people rarely feel the need to boast about their success.
If someone regularly boasts about their income, wealth, or success, it’s fair to assume the reality is a fraction of what they claim.
The Steve Jobs Quality Razor
“When you’re a carpenter making a beautiful chest of drawers, you’re not going to use a piece of plywood on the back, even though it faces the wall and nobody will ever see it. You’ll know it’s there, so you’re going to use a beautiful piece of wood on the back. For you to sleep well at night, the aesthetic, the quality, has to be carried all the way through.” - Steve Jobs
When building, take pride in carrying the quality all the way through. Would you be proud for your work to be seen from every angle and perspective? If not, keep working.
Buffett’s Rule of Holes
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging." - Warren Buffett
When things aren’t working, change course and try something different. When you find yourself at the bottom of a hole, stop digging and climb out of it.
The Paul Graham Crazy Idea Razor
If someone proposes a crazy idea, ask:
Are they a domain expert?
Do I know them to be reasonable?
If yes on (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it may be an asymmetric bet on the future.
The Circle of Competence
Be ruthless in identifying your circle of competence (and its boundaries). When faced with a big decision, ask yourself whether you are qualified to handle it given your circle. If yes, proceed. If no, outsource it to someone who is.
The Duck Test
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck. You can determine a lot about a person by regularly observing their habitual characteristics.
Buffett’s Juicy Pitch
“You don't have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch." - Warren Buffett
Life doesn’t reward you for the number of swings you take. Slow down and focus on identifying the juiciest pitch. When it comes, swing hard and don’t miss it.
Occam’s Razor
The simplest explanation is often the best one. Simple assumptions > complex assumptions. Simple is beautiful.
The Buffett Reputation Razor
“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently.” - Warren Buffett
Remember that quote and act accordingly. Your character is your fate.
Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
In assessing someone's actions, we should not assume negative intent if there is a viable alternative explanation, such as different beliefs, incompetence, or ignorance.
Machiavelli’s Razor
A simple modification of Hanlon’s Razor:
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by self-interest.
In assessing someone's actions, we should not assume negative intent if there is a viable alternative explanation that they are acting on rooted self-interest.
Newton’s Flaming Laser Sword
If something cannot be settled by experiment or observation, it is not worth debating. This will save you from wasting a lot of time on pointless arguments.
Hitchens’ Razor
What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. The burden of proof regarding a claim lies with the one who makes the claim. If unmet, no argument is required to dismiss it.
Sagan’s Standard
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” - Carl Sagan
The more crazy and outrageous the claim, the more crazy and outrageous the body of evidence must be in order to prove it.
The Naval Reading Razor
“Read what you love until you love to read.” - Naval
When deciding what to read, just read whatever grabs you. Avoid the trap of only reading “impressive” or “smart” books that bore you to death. Never establish vanity metrics (e.g. # of books) as goals.
The Eisenhower Decision Matrix
When faced with a task, ask: “Is this urgent? Is this important?”
An "urgent" task is one that requires immediate attention. An "important" task is one that promotes or furthers your long-term goals.
Place it on a 2x2 matrix and act accordingly.
The Steve Jobs Settling Razor
“The only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle.” - Steve Jobs
It’s Monday morning. Did you wake up with energy or with dread? Your answer will tell you if you’re settling.
The Career Razor
When deciding on a new job, choose the one that will challenge you the most (intellectually, physically, or emotionally). Challenge and discomfort forces growth.
P.S. Check out The Bloomboard for challenging new roles!
Those are 20+ powerful razors to help you cut through life’s noise. What are your favorites? What razors am I missing?
Love this post? Share it with your family and friends and help grow the tribe!
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Pallet - Swiss Army Knife
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Synthesis - Head of People, VP Growth, Technical Recruiter
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Vivian Health - Product Manager
Pesto Tech - Account Executive
The full board can be found here!
And if you are a high-growth company in finance or tech, you can use the “Post a Job” button to get your roles up on the board and featured in future Twitter and newsletter distributions.
That does it for now. Subscribe today and join the 20,500+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week!
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Welcome to the 500+ new members of the curiosity tribe who have joined us since Friday. Join the 19,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week!
Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Fundrise!
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You can join 150,000+ other investors and start investing in real estate today!
Powerful Paradoxes
From a young age, we are taught to view the world as black and white. But many of life’s most important truths appear contradictory on the surface.
15 powerful paradoxes (on growth, business, careers, and life):
Sprezzatura (“Studied Carelessness”)
You have to put in more effort to make something appear effortless. Effortless, elegant performances are often the result of a large volume of effortful, gritty practice. Simple is not simple.
Slow Down to Speed Up
Want to speed up? Try slowing down. Slowing down gives you the time to be deliberate with your actions. You can focus, gather energy, and deploy your resources more efficiently. It allows you to focus on leverage and ROI. Move slow to move fast.
Learn More to Know Less
The wisdom paradox - the more you learn, the more you are exposed to the immense unknown. This should be empowering, not frightening.
“The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” - Albert Einstein
Embrace lifelong learning.
Shrink to Grow
Growth is never linear. In order to grow, sometimes you need to shrink. Shedding deadweight may feel like a step back, but it is a necessity for long-term growth. This principle applies to your career, startup, or life. One step back for two steps forward.
Fail More to Succeed More
We fear failure, so most of us play it safe to avoid it. But our greatest moments of growth often stem directly from our greatest failures. Don’t fear failure, just learn to fail smart and fast. Fail more - you’ll learn, adapt, and grow.
Take On Less, Accomplish More
Success doesn’t come from taking on everything that comes your way. It comes from focus - deep, disciplined focus on the tasks that really matter. Say yes to what matters, say no to what doesn’t. Protect your time. It is a gift to be cherished.
Memento Mori
A favorite of Stoic philosophy, it is a reminder of the certainty and inescapability of death. It is not intended to be morbid or dark; rather, to clarify, illuminate, and inspire. You must know your death in order to truly live your life.
Talk Less to Be Heard More
Friday Night Lights (the movie) has a famous scene where a notoriously quiet player gives a riveting speech that turns around a game. He rarely spoke up, so when he did, it hit. Hard. If you want to be heard, talk less. You’ll find more power in your words.
The Only Constant is Change
Entropy is reality. The world is in a continuous state of change. It’s the one thing you can always count on - the only constant. Embrace it - be dynamic, be adaptable.
“When you are finished changing, you are finished.” - Benjamin Franklin
Stop Looking to Find More
Have you ever noticed that when you are looking for something, you rarely find it? Stop looking. What you’re looking for may just find you.
More Choices, Less Satisfaction
We assume a positive linear relationship between choice and satisfaction. But is this wrong? “Choice paralysis” is a very real phenomenon. The relationship between choice and satisfaction is much more nuanced than you’ve been led to believe.
Argue Less to Persuade More
Have you ever noticed that the most argumentative people rarely persuade anyone of anything? The most persuasive people don’t argue more - they observe, listen, and ask questions. Persuasion is an art that requires a paintbrush, not a sledgehammer.
Face Your Fears
If something scares you, you should probably go do it. Fears, when avoided, become limiters on our growth and life. Make a habit of getting closer to your fears. Then take the leap (metaphorically!) - you may just find growth on the other side.
Get Vulnerable to Become Strong
The stigma of vulnerability has been broken. It’s ok to admit we aren’t ok. Strength comes from opening up to our vulnerabilities - embracing them, owning them, and growing through them. Want to get strong? Get vulnerable first.
Nothing is Certain
“The only certainty is that nothing is certain.” - Pliny the Elder
Uncertainty and randomness are features, not bugs. Embrace them.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” - Mark Twain
Those are 15 powerful paradoxes on growth and life. What are your favorites? What paradoxes am I missing?
If you’ve been following along, you know that I write a lot about growth. It’s what I’m passionate about. I want to help you grow in your career. Check out my job board, where I curate amazing roles in finance and tech every week!
Some amazing new roles up this week, including at Avicado, Atreides Management, Beyond Protocol, Commonstock, and more!
If you’re a growing company in finance or technology, use the “Post a Job” button to have your roles posted and featured today.
Join the 19,000+ others who are receiving high-signal, curiosity-inducing content every single week! Until next time, stay curious, friends!
(P.S. a note from Fundrise: here's all the legal jargon we know you love reading)
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The Mechanics of a Meme Stock Rally
“Meme stocks” like AMC and GameStop have captured the attention of the financial world. But few understand what is actually driving these furious price rallies. Let’s dive into the mechanics of a meme stock rally…
First off, what is a meme stock? There is no single definition, but meme stocks can be understood as stocks that experience rapid upward price movements as a result of collective social media evangelism. The price movements are typically not related to business fundamentals.
AMC and GameStop are the two most salient examples of meme stocks from recent memory. Both experienced furious, Reddit-fueled rallies that left the financial establishment scratching their heads. Heroes emerged, like fearless leader Roaring Kitty (who is not, in fact, a cat!).
But how did it happen? Emotion (FOMO!) and the power of crowds played a role, but I’ll leave those to the sociologists and psychologists to analyze. There are two underlying financial dynamics at play: a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze.
Let’s cover the mechanics of each…
The Short Squeeze
First, a short squeeze. The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling. The basics are covered in my thread below. TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
"Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market. It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned). It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement. When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
In the case of the recent meme stocks, as AMC or GameStop stock rose, short sellers were forced to close their shorts all at once. This created a surge of buying (to return the borrowed shares) and drove the price up further. It created an accelerating upward price movement.
The Gamma Squeeze
So that’s a short squeeze, but what about a gamma squeeze? It’s a bit more complicated, but let's attempt to simplify it here...
A gamma squeeze is all about options contracts and their indirect impact on the underlying stock. For a primer on options, see my thread below.
When you buy a call option on AMC, someone has to sell you that option contract. You pay them a bit of money (the premium) and they make a commitment to deliver you the underlying stock at a future date for the strike price of the option. It's a pretty simple transaction.
But in the background, the seller (often called a "market maker") has to think about their risk exposure. If AMC rises above your strike price, they will have to buy the stock at the market price and sell it to you for the strike price, incurring a (potentially large!) loss.
To hedge this risk, when the market maker sells you the option, she also goes into the market and buys a bit of the underlying stock. The amount of stock she buys is based on the "Delta" - a ratio of how much the option price moves relative to a $1 move in the stock.
"Gamma" is the rate of change of the "Delta" of the option. As Delta and Gamma rise, the market maker gets more and more nervous! She has to buy more stock to hedge the risk of the option being exercised in the money (i.e. with the underlying price above the strike price).
So here we have the (simplified!) makings of the gamma squeeze. As call option purchasing volumes on AMC suddenly surged, market makers had to purchase a lot of AMC stock to hedge. This set in motion a self-fulfilling prophecy...
Market makers rushed to purchase AMC stock to hedge exposure. This drove the price of AMC up! As the price of AMC went up, the Delta and Gamma of AMC call options rose. This meant market makers had to buy more stock, further driving up the AMC price! Reflexivity.
So to summarize: With AMC and GameStop (and other meme stocks!), we had both (1) a short squeeze - short-sellers frantically buying the stock to close/cover their shorts and (2) a gamma squeeze - call option market makers frantically buying the stock to hedge their exposure.
The result? Check the charts…
I hope this piece was helpful and makes you feel more well-informed on what is happening under the surface with meme stocks!
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a beat.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Steve Jobs delivered the commencement speech at Stanford University on June 12, 2005. 16 years later, its wisdom remains.
Lessons from Steve Jobs (on careers, startups, and life):
Develop Independent Views
To carve your own path - in your career or life - you have to develop your own views. Steve Jobs originally went to college because it was what he was supposed to do after graduating high school. He dropped out when he couldn’t see the value in it.
“I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. So I decided to drop out...it was one of the best decisions I ever made."
Don't chart your course based on someone else's map for your life. Develop independent views.
Let Curiosity Guide You
There are no how-to books on life (or no good ones, at least). You have to develop your own guidebook that empowers you to navigate the endless, mysterious expanse. Curiosity can be that guide (if you embrace it).
Steve Jobs experienced this when he began dropping in on random classes that sparked his interest.
"Much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on."
Curiosity is a mysterious and powerful force. Let curiosity guide you.
Have Faith in the Dots
In following his curiosity, Steve Jobs dropped in on a calligraphy course for a semester.
"It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can’t capture."
But it had no practical relevance to his life...or so he thought.
"10 years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me...It was the first computer with beautiful typography."
You are just a series of "dots" - moments, decisions, successes, and failures. Your life is the line that connects them.
"You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future...This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life."
Have faith in the dots.
Go Back to the Starting Line
After being fired from Apple, Steve Jobs felt the weight of tremendous public failure. He had been fired from the company he founded, after all. But through self-reflection, he came to see that this very public failure had freed him in a way.
“The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.”
Don’t let the burden of external forces drain your life. Go back to the starting line.
Never Settle
In your career, if you have the luxury of choice, never settle for less than love. Low tolerance for uncertainty often leads to this settling - we fear the uncertainty and settle to escape it. Resist this urge...
“The only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven’t found it yet, keep looking. Don’t settle.”
Tolerate uncertainty for a bit longer. Never settle.
Memento Mori
One year before his speech, Steve Jobs had survived a scare with pancreatic cancer. It was a very real reminder of his mortality and the inescapability of death. But rather than darkness, this experience brought light.
"Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart."
Remember that you must die. Memento Mori.
Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish
Fight back against “fitting in” - fight back against normalcy.
“Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life...Have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become.”
The world wants you to be normal and play by the rules. You have to fight - consistently and diligently - to maintain your uniqueness. Steve Jobs recognized this as well as anyone in the world. So it was that he closed with his most famous line:
“Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.”
These were the powerful mental models and lessons from Steve Jobs, delivered during his commencement speech at Stanford University on June 12, 2005. The full text and video of the speech can be found here.
If you are still looking to find that love in your career that Steve Jobs referenced, I want to help. Check out my job board for curated roles at high-growth companies in finance and technology that believe in open access recruiting.
There are some amazing new roles on the board this week from companies like Commonstock, Beyond Protocol, and Mercury - check it out today!
And if you are a growing company in finance or technology looking to access a unique pool of talent and have your roles promoted to my audience on Twitter or through the newsletter, post a job on the board or message me for additional information.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a beat.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Today’s newsletter is brought to you by Ascend’s Leadership Program!
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Lifelong Learning Habits
Lifelong learning is a competitive advantage. But contrary to what you’ve been told, lifelong learners are built, not born.
20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today:
Stimulate Dynamically
The mind is a muscle - it needs to be stimulated dynamically to continue to grow. Don’t rely on one “exercise” - develop a menu of options. Write, read, listen, watch. Solve puzzles, play games. Enjoy it! Stimulate dynamically, learn dynamically.
Build Learning Circles
The most powerful learning is communal, not individual. Build learning circles with other intellectually curious minds. Engage regularly with no set intention or goal. Community is everything. Embrace it.
Keep Asking Why
“Why?” is the most useful tool in our learning toolkit. But somewhere along the line, we are told to stop asking why and just accept “facts” as we are told them. Reject the norm. If you want to understand the world, take a cue from our kids - keep asking why!
Adopt a Process Orientation
Prioritize process. Learn for the sake of learning, not always for a specific goal. When you prioritize process, you become flexible in where you are headed. Life is a winding, confusing journey - forward progress is all that matters.
Become a Polymath
A polymath is a person with wide-ranging, multi-disciplinary knowledge. Lifelong learners tend to be polymaths - their curiosity naturally leads to knowledge accumulation in a variety of disciplines. Learn both horizontally and vertically. Become a polymath.
Build a Learning Engine
The “learning engine” is at the core of every lifelong learner. It is comprised of all the learning “inputs” regularly consumed - books, newsletters, podcasts, videos, etc. The internet has opened access to it all. Build an unstoppable learning engine.
Avoid Noise Bottlenecks
Consuming more does not equate to knowing more. As you consume more data, you may find the noise-to-signal ratio increases (a classic Taleb “noise bottleneck” appears). Consume less, but consume intelligently. More signal, less noise.
Embrace All Types of Learning
There are two types of learning: surface and deep. Surface learning is quick and easy. Deep learning is more challenging. It requires a willingness to slow down and let ideas mature in the mind. Lifelong learners embrace both.
Seek Mentors & Coaches
“If I have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” You can’t do it alone. Seek out mentors and coaches to help you on your journey. Never be afraid to ask. You’ll be amazed by the kindness of strangers and their willingness to help.
Embrace Failures
Lifelong learners recognize that failures are learning opportunities. They don’t fear them. They embrace them. It’s easier said than done. Failures are painful - physically and emotionally. But stay the course and you’ll find learning on the other side.
Follow Your Curiosity
When you have a spark of curiosity, follow it. Moments of pure, unadulterated curiosity are fleeting, so you have to prioritize them when they come. Seek out curiosity-inducing content (like my Curiosity Chronicle newsletter!).
Become a Teacher
Teaching is often the most powerful path to learning. The Feynman Technique (explained below) is a foundational mental model for unlocking learning and growth through teaching. Use it! If you want to learn, teach.
Take Breaks
Humans were not made for constant motion. Learn to sprint, then rest. Taking breaks can be the easiest, most effective unlock for learning and growth. If you want to learn to grow, first learn to rest.
Learn from Strangers
Every conversation with a stranger is an opportunity to learn something new. Be present in every conversation with everyone you meet. You never know what might come of it.
Seek a Stimulating Job
Try to find a job that is intellectually stimulating. I know this is a luxury - if you are lucky enough, take advantage. P.S. I want to help. Check out my job board for interesting roles at companies that believe in open access.
Change Your Mind
Lifelong learners are always willing to change their mind. Believe something to be true? Ok, but be sure to open your mind to counterarguments. Stubborn refusal to acknowledge alternative perspectives stalls progress. Strive for strong opinions, weakly held.
Embrace Novel Formats
2020 was a tough year, but it did bring an upswell of novel learning formats. Cohort-based courses - which foster community! - are a great innovation. Cool Example: Ascend - a program for women looking to accelerate their careers.
Practice Mindfulness
A healthy mind is a powerful mind. Set aside time for mindfulness. Practice meditation - start with 5 minutes a day and build up from there. There are plenty of great apps to help you get started. With a healthy mind, anything is possible.
School as the Starting Line
All lifelong learners recognize that school is nothing but the starting line of our true education. Once you internalize this, you’ll start doing things differently.
Play the Long Game
The greatest riches in life - personal or professional - come from compound interest. But it takes time. Lots of time. Knowledge is no different - it compounds. So lifelong learners play the long game. Let the magical power of compounding work for you.
So those are 20 lifelong learning habits you can start developing today. What are some that I am missing?
If you are a job seeker, check out The Bloomboard for unique roles at high-growth companies in finance and technology.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Special Announcement: The Bloomboard
I’m excited to announce the launch of my job board - The Bloomboard - where I will curate and share unique, exciting roles in finance and technology every single week.
The goal? To foster open access to jobs for candidates and spread awareness of amazing, high-growth companies and roles.
The board will be curated by me personally, meaning it will only include companies and roles I would recommend (i.e. roles I would be excited to take if I were qualified!).
We have some incredible companies and roles up for the launch, including:
Synthesis - EdTech for nurturing innovators - VP of Growth & Head of People
Faves - curation-focused social app - Head of Partnerships & Growth PM
Metafy - 1x1 e-sports coaching platform - Senior Product Designer
Vivian Health - healthcare job placement platform - Product Manager
Fundrise - real estate investment platform - Director of Product, Growth
M1 Finance - personal investment super app - Lifecycle Marketing Manager
Capchase - non-dilutive funding platform - Capital Markets Analyst
Pesto Tech - remote developer matching platform - Account Executive
Blockworks - crypto and macro media platform - Editor & Software Engineer
Titan - democratized investment platform - Crypto Investment Analyst
and more at IEQ Capital, First Round Capital, Gather, Athletic Greens, Avicado, ConvertKit, and many others!
If you are a company in finance or technology looking to gain direct access to a large, growing talent pool, post a job to the board or email me to add your roles.
20 Ways to Stand Out in a Hiring Process
The hiring process is ultra-competitive. But you’ve incorrectly been told that the only way to stand out is by having fancy degrees and credentials.
20 ways to stand out in a hiring process (that don’t involve your resume):
Do Your Research
Before an interview, spend a few hours researching the company and role. At a minimum, learn the company mission, read up on recent news on the company or its market, and study the backgrounds of the key leaders. Google is a powerful asset. Use it.
Embrace “I Don’t Know”
You can’t know the answer to every question. And you know what? That’s ok! Don’t be afraid to say “I don’t know” - but then follow it with a plan to acquire that information. “I don’t know, but I’ll dig in and follow up with an email.” Then follow up!
Stop Fearing Rejection
I’m not embarrassed to admit that I’ve been rejected for more jobs than I can count. It happens. You can’t be a fit for everything and everyone. Stop being afraid of rejection and put yourself out there. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
Prepare for “Why Us?”
Interviewers inevitably ask, “Why us?” Make sure you are prepared for it. What attracted you to this company? The more specific, the better. Generic answers (“I love investing”) get minus points. Specific answers win.
Stalk (Non-Creepily!)
If you know who you will be interviewing with, spend time learning about their background and experience. Identify potential bonding areas (e.g. same alma mater, similar interests or hobbies, etc.). This prior knowledge may help you connect more deeply.
Seek Warm Intros
Warm intros and references are the holy grail of a competitive hiring process. Scan your networks for any connections to a company (yes, LinkedIn is actually useful for something!). If you find any that are close enough, use them. The smallest edge can help!
Blend Deference & Confidence
Show deference to your interviewer, but not at the expense of confidence. The power dynamics of an interview are nuanced. Blending deference and confidence is how you manage them effectively and leave the interviewer with a positive impression.
Play to Your Strengths
Don’t fight on an even playing field. If you have unique attributes or competitive advantages, use them. Played a team sport? Talk about it! Taught yourself to code? Hype that up! Humility is great, but make sure they know what makes you special!
Show Your Passion
Showing a genuine passion and excitement for the company and role is the easiest way to stand out from the crowd. People want to hire candidates that want to be there. So smile, express your excitement (calmly!), and let that passion shine through.
Carry a Notebook
When you go to an interview, always bring a notebook. It’s not just pageantry - use it. If something comes up that is interesting or requires a follow up, make a point of writing it down. It shows attentiveness. Interviewers notice these little things.
Personalized Thank Yous
After an interview, always send a thank you note to the interviewer. Make them punchy (so that the person actually reads it!). Include a specific detail (that you wrote down in your notebook!) from the interview so that it doesn’t appear generic.
Ask Unique Questions
Most interviews end with a classic: “Do you have any questions for me?” This isn’t just a throwaway question. It is an opportunity to show off your differentiated initiative and hustle. Ask a unique question grounded in your diligence on the company.
Real Weaknesses
Getting asked about your weaknesses feels like a trap, so we tend to give weaknesses that are actually strengths (“I’m TOO detail oriented”). Don’t do that. I once told an interviewer I didn’t know accounting (but that I would learn it). That’s a real weakness!
Focus on the Long-Term
An interviewer may ask about your plans for the next few years. Beware! This question can be a trap to catch short-term thinkers. Simply reframe it and focus on the long-term. Companies want long-term thinkers, so tailor your response to that want.
Highlight Learning as a Goal
When asked about your goals for the coming years, always highlight learning (among any others). Constant learners tend to be great employees. Since you want to present as someone that would be a great employee, emphasize learning as a primary goal.
Nail the Cover Letter
A punchy, well-written cover letter is one of the best ways to stand out. Keep it short and include a specific answer to the “why us?” question. Try to infuse an element of personality. Especially for “reach” jobs, make sure you nail the cover letter!
Make Them Look Smart
In large organizations, hierarchies matter. If interviewing at one, be clear about how you will fit in and help it thrive. When speaking with your future manager(s), you want them to believe you will make them look smart to their bosses if they hire you.
Pass the Plane Test
There’s a common (+ dated!) test in the hiring process: “Would I want to sit next to this person on a plane for 5 hours?” This was about being “normal” - but normalcy is overrated. Be yourself, but be sure to get across that you are kind and genuine.
Targeted Outreach
Before applying to a company, try to interact with 1-2 of its employees. Reach out to a few people in similar roles to what you’re applying for and ask if they would be willing to share their insights. You’ll learn a lot and maybe even improve your chances.
Prove Readiness
Hiring managers want to know you can do the job (or quickly learn to do it). If possible, cite examples of how you’ve done the requirements of this job in the past. If not possible, cite examples of times you have quickly learned something new and had success.
So those are 20 ways to stand out that don’t involve your resume. If you are a job seeker, check out The Bloomboard for unique roles at high-growth companies in finance and technology.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
A great commencement speech is filled with wisdom.
10 powerful lessons from the best commencement speeches of all time:
1: Connecting the Dots
"You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future." - Steve Jobs, Stanford 2005
Life is uncertain. Have faith that your dots will somehow connect.
2: Master the Rescue
"The difference between triumph and defeat, you’ll find, isn’t about willingness to take risks. It’s about mastery of rescue." - Atul Gawande, Williams 2012
Failures are a given. The greatest don't fail less, they just succeed in rescuing more.
3: Be a Doer
"I think a lot of people dream. And while they are busy dreaming, the really happy people, the really successful people, the really interesting, engaged, powerful people, are busy doing." - Shonda Rhimes, Dartmouth 2014
It's not enough to dream. You have to do.
4: Learn to Improvise
"Life is an improvisation. You have no idea what's going to happen next and you are mostly just making things up as you go along." - Stephen Colbert, Northwestern 2011
Life has a habit of laughing at your best-laid plans. Let it flow - learn to improvise!
5: Appreciate the Sweetness
"When things are going sweetly and peacefully, please pause a moment, and then say out loud: 'If this isn't nice, what is?'" - Kurt Vonnegut, Rice 1998
Life moves fast. Slow down, pause, and appreciate moments of sweetness. You'll be glad you did.
6: Run Toward the Storm
"Whatever you choose for a career path, remember the struggles along the way are only meant to shape you for your purpose." - Chadwick Boseman, Howard 2018
Your career will be filled with struggles. Don't hide. Run toward them! Let them shape you.
7: Embrace Imposter Syndrome
"I just directed my first film. I was completely unprepared, but my own ignorance to my own limitations looked like confidence and got me into the director's chair." - Natalie Portman, Harvard 2015
We are all imposters...until we aren't. Embrace it!
8: Check the Assumptions
"A huge percentage of the stuff that I tend to be automatically certain of is, it turns out, totally wrong and deluded." - David Foster Wallace, Kenyon 2005
It's what you know for sure that just ain't so...To avoid trouble, always check the assumptions.
9: Look Up
"The answer to a lot of your life's questions is often in someone else's face. Try putting your iPhones down every once in a while and look at people's faces." - Amy Poehler, Harvard 2011
Look up from your phone. Observe and listen to those around you. Be present.
10: Make Your Bed
"Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can't do the little things right, you will never do the big things right." - Admiral McRaven, Texas 2014
Little things become big things. Take pride in the little things.
These are 10 powerful lessons learned from some of the greatest commencement speeches of all time. What are your favorites that weren't included in the list?
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
The story of the last few weeks in business has been the ransomware attack that took down the Colonial Pipeline.
On ransomware-as-a-service, DarkSide, and what happens when publicity becomes really bad for business:
First, a few definitions...
What is ransomware? Ransomware is a type of malware - a software designed to cause harm to a computer, server, or network. Ransomware is used to encrypt the files on your system and hold it “hostage” until the demanded ransom is paid.
Ransomware is not new, but ransomware attacks are most definitely on the rise. With the world increasingly moving online, the cyber-attackers have experienced a windfall.
Both the frequency of attacks and the size of the average ransom payments have increased dramatically.
The way a ransomware attack works is really quite simple (even if the underlying technology is complicated).
A would-be attacker scans for vulnerable companies. They often look for dated systems or weak infrastructure - like an animal looking for injured prey.
When a target is acquired, the cyber-attacker looks for an entry point. This could be using a phishing scam or other method to gain access to the network or company data and servers.
Once inside, the cyber-attacker launches a program that encrypts all of the company’s data.
Once encrypted, the data and systems become completely unusable without a decryption key. The company is immobilized.
While this sounds complex, given the range of cybersecurity sophistication at companies, hackers say breaching some companies is “so easy a kid could do it.”
After the encryption is complete, the ransom negotiation begins.
The cyber-attackers reach out to the company, offering to provide a decryption key that will return access to the hostage data. In exchange, the company has to pay a ransom (usually in the form of Bitcoin).
If ransom isn’t paid, the data may continue to be held (leaving the company immobilized) or sensitive data (credit cards, health records, etc.) may be leaked.
Generally speaking, the company negotiates and pays the ransom, with its cyber insurance footing the bill.
The ransomware market has operated in the shadows for a long time...until recently. The story of a high-profile attack on the Colonial Pipeline - and the fascinating “ransomware-as-a-service” entity that enabled it - has shined a light on the industry.
Let’s dive in…
Colonial Pipeline is the largest gas pipeline in the U.S. On May 7, it announced it had been hit by a ransomware attack and had shut down operations. This ransomware attack was different. It wasn’t an attack on a medium-sized business. It was much, much bigger than that.
With the pipeline out of commission, gas prices spiked, impacting millions and drawing the immediate, full attention of the press (and the FBI). Suddenly, ransomware attacks were in the spotlight. And the services group enabling the attacks - DarkSide - was at center stage.
DarkSide is a so-called “ransomware-as-a-service” company. It doesn’t engage in the actual cyberattacks. Instead, it provides a suite of tools and services that enable would-be cyber-attackers to conduct their business.
DarkSide provides the malware that encrypts the data, but also much more.
A communication service - making calls to the victim companies for negotiations. A hosting site for stolen data. Customer service. It can even sell inside info to stock traders for extra profit.
Think of DarkSide as a cloud services provider for the modern ransomware era. It appears to be the market leader in providing such services! And it has an impressive economic model: DarkSide takes a 10-25% cut of the proceeds from the ransom payment.
Normally, startups with strong market traction love publicity. It helps with new customer acquisition and growth! But the difference here is that when you are a ransomware-as-a-service market leader, publicity can be really, really bad for business.
With the authorities now focused on them, DarkSide issued a statement: “Our goal is to make money and not create problems for society. From today, we introduce moderation and check each company that our partners want to encrypt to avoid social consequences in the future.”
DarkSide learned the hard way what banks learned long ago: you have to know your customer! The Colonial Pipeline shutdown lasted about a week. Operations were restored after a rumored ransom payment of ~$5m (75-100 BTC). DarkSide’s cut was hefty - but it came at a cost.
In the months to come, with the spotlight shined on the sophistication of the ransomware market - as well as the devastating nature of the attacks - companies will step up their cybersecurity infrastructure to defend themselves. This may be bad for ransomware profits...
So is this just a classic market cycle? The ransomware market had predictable, large profits. This led to a rush of activity to exploit them. Now the market gets squeezed, making it less attractive to do ransomware attacks. Free markets at work...?
That is the story of DarkSide, the Colonial Pipeline hack, and the fascinating ransomware-as-a-service business model. For more, check out this article from Bloomberg.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Intellectual curiosity is a competitive advantage.
But contrary to what you’ve been told, it has nothing to do with intelligence.
10 ways to start developing your intellectual curiosity today:
1: Scrub Your Windows
“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.” - Isaac Asimov
Curiosity is a light that can only enter when your mental windows are clean. Scrub them off now and then. Let the light in.
2: Embrace “I Don’t Know”
“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” - Socrates
Avoid false confidence (and the people that display it!). Embracing what you do not know is a superpower. Recognize your gaps and blind spots. Slowly, methodically fill them in.
3: Go Down Rabbit Holes
When you find a spark of curiosity, dive in and don’t look back. You cannot control when they come, so you must embrace them when they do.
The rabbit hole is the amusement park of the intellectually curious mind. Enjoy it!
4: Ask “Dumb” Questions
When we are young, we always ask “Why?” But over time, we develop a fear of asking the “dumb” question that may draw the ire of our peers.
That fear stifles our intellectual curiosity. Fight it back. Face it. When in doubt, ask.
5: Build Curiosity Circles
Curiosity is communal. Find a group of friends who are motivated by learning and growth. Share ideas, learnings, and insights with each other.
You’ll build bonds and have a constant source of stimulation for your intellectual curiosity.
6: Make Learning the Goal
Learning with a specific end goal in mind often becomes a chore - it is a fast track to stifled curiosity. Focus on the learning itself - not other outcomes. Take pride in learning something new every single day.
“Learn as if you were to live forever.”
7: Open Up to the World
The diversity of human experience in our world is one of the greatest gifts to the intellectually curious mind. When you meet someone new, take genuine interest in their life and experiences.
The world opens up to you, when you open up to the world.
8: Focus on Your Passions
Forced learning is for school. It doesn’t work in practice. It stifles curiosity. Find what you truly enjoy learning about. It doesn’t matter what it is. It doesn’t have to be “intellectual” or impressive.
Remember: You are learning for you!
9: Read Flexibly
Books are a life-changing investment that you can make for under $100.
But to take advantage, you must read flexibly. Read what you love. Read what draws you in. When it stops doing so, put it down. Forced reading is the antidote to curiosity.
10: The Curiosity Chronicle
And last - but certainly not least - sign up for this newsletter...
A weekly short-form newsletter with five pieces of content curated to spark your intellectual curiosity.
So those are 10 ways to start developing your intellectual curiosity today.
For additional writing related to cultivating intellectual curiosity in your children, check out my friend Ana Fabrega at Synthesis, who is putting out incredible content. Synthesis is building something special disrupting traditional childhood education. Check them out here!
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Warren Buffett is a treasure trove of wisdom.
But contrary to what you have been told, most of it has nothing to do with investing.
10 powerful lessons for life from the Oracle of Omaha:
1 - Wait For A Juicy Pitch
“You don't have to swing at everything - you can wait for your pitch."
Life doesn’t reward you for the number of swings you take.
Focus on identifying the juiciest pitch.
When it comes, swing hard and don’t miss it.
2 - Just Stop Digging
“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging."
When things aren’t working, change course and try something different.
Be nimble. Be agile.
When you find yourself at the bottom of a hole, stop digging and climb out of it.
3 - Exploit Disconnects
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
Seek out situations where there is a clear disconnect between price and value.
This applies to investing, but it’s more broadly a mental model for life.
Identify disconnects. Exploit them to your advantage.
4 - Be Contrarian
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
Following the crowd is easy, but it can be a trap.
Learn to think independently. Come to your own decisions. Develop your own mental models.
Your unique perspectives are your superpower.
5 - Optimize Value Capture
“Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."
Create structures that enable you to capture more of the value you create.
The most successful people have simply optimized their value capture mechanisms.
6 - Make Time Your Friend
“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.”
Don’t be in a rush.
Set up your life to compound value over the long-term.
Play long-term games with long-term people.
Make time work for - not against - you.
7 - Protect Your Circle of Competence
“Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.”
Be ruthlessly honest about what you know (your circle of competence) and what you don’t.
Focus on playing games within your circle - otherwise, you’re just gambling.
8 - Never Get Caught Naked
“It's only when the tide goes out that you discover who's been swimming naked.”
Find a balance between pushing yourself for growth and being completely out of your depth.
Never put yourself in a high-stakes position to get caught swimming naked.
9 - Reputation Matters
“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently.”
In every interaction - big or small - always act in accordance with strong principles and values.
Your character is your fate.
10 - Invest In Yourself
“The most important investment you can make is in yourself."
There is no better investment than an investment in yourself.
Find time to read, to think, to learn.
Surround yourself with amazing people who push you to become better.
Invest in you.
These are 10 powerful lessons for life from Warren Buffett, but there are so many more.
What are your favorite lessons from the Oracle of Omaha?
I have to admit, I am still shaking from this moment at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in 2019...
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Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
In his final Amazon shareholder letter, Jeff Bezos shared a powerful mental model on maintaining your distinctiveness.
On the fight against normalcy (in your career, startup, writing, or life):
Jeff Bezos founded Amazon in 1994.
In 27 years at the helm, he grew it into one of the largest and most influential companies in the world. Today, it is worth almost $1.7 trillion.
Each year since its 1997 IPO, Bezos has written an annual letter to Amazon shareholders.
In February, Jeff Bezos announced he would step down as CEO.
In his final annual shareholder letter, he covered his “create more than you consume” mantra and hit on climate and employee issues.
But its closing - on the fight against normalcy - held the most powerful lessons.
Bezos set the stage for his mental model with a quote from Richard Dawkins’ The Blind Watchmaker:
“The body tends to revert to a state of equilibrium with its environment...if living things didn’t work actively to prevent it, they would eventually merge into their surroundings.”
With the stage set, Bezos makes his point:
“In what ways does the world pull at you in an attempt to make you normal? How much work does it take to maintain your distinctiveness?...You have to pay a price for your distinctiveness...don’t expect it to be easy or free.”
This is a powerful mental model for thinking about distinctiveness.
If equilibrium with our surroundings - normalcy - is our natural state, we must fight to maintain distinctiveness.
Constantly, relentlessly.
Distinctiveness isn’t free - you have to pay your dues every day.
Once you internalize this framework, you will see it all around you. You will see all of the ways that our systems and institutions are designed to keep you normal. You will start to see how hard it is to be different - the true cost of distinctiveness.
One perfect example: Education.
Our traditional education systems look like the early Ford Model T assembly lines.
Standardized, one-size-fits-all curriculum and arbitrary assessments of competency.
We leave some kids behind, we hold back others. We fail to foster innovation, ingenuity, and creativity.
Traditional education systems are designed to maintain equilibrium.
Conventional wisdom said it would be too hard to foster creativity at scale. It will be hard, but that’s the point!
Innovation is coming: Synthesis is building something special, for example.
The world wants you to be normal. Our systems and institutions are all designed to make it easy to be normal.
Maintaining your distinctiveness is possible, but it will require effort - painful, constant, relentless effort.
But stay the course. You’ll find it’s worth it.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
The story of the last few weeks in finance has been the secretive rise and rapid downfall of Archegos Capital Management.
A thread on the underlying mechanics of the Archegos saga and how a $20 billion fortune vanished into thin air...
First, let’s set the stage.
Archegos Capital Management is the family office of Bill Hwang, a former prodigy of hedge fund legend Julian Robertson.
Hwang previously built Tiger Asia Management - a so-called “Tiger Cub” fund due to its lineage from Robertson’s Tiger Management.
Bill Hwang grew Tiger Asia Management into a highly successful hedge fund, reaching ~$10 billion in assets under management in the 2000s.
He was a bit of an anomaly in the world of high finance - known as a devout Christian with simple tastes (seriously, he drives a Hyundai!).
After winding down Tiger Asia Management following a few bad bets and a run-in with regulators, Hwang opened Archegos (a Greek word for “one who leads the way”) in 2013 with ~$200 million in personal capital.
He began doing what he does best - trading and investing.
Going long innovation, he scored big wins on stocks like Netflix and Amazon.
Soon, Archegos’ capital had grown to $4 billion.
But Hwang, a private and deeply religious man, was not one for the spotlight. He just appears to have genuinely enjoyed his work.
Fortunately, there were features of the strategy that allowed the firm to remain anonymous.
As a family office, it was not required to disclose its holdings on a 13F filing (as with all hedge funds).
It used swap contracts to quietly amass large, leveraged positions.
The 13F loophole is self-explanatory: Archegos was a family office with a specific structure, so it did not have to file quarterly 13Fs disclosing its holdings.
Swap contracts (“swaps”) are a bit more complicated. Let’s simplify them here for everyone to understand...
In simple terms, a swap contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange (swap!) the values or cash flows of one asset for another.
Archegos entered swap contracts with banks to gain exposure to stocks without holding them.
This is not an uncommon practice for funds.
My banker buys $100 of Apple on my behalf but holds it on the bank B/S.
I post $20 as “margin” (see my primer on margin) and agree to pay interest on the borrowed money ($80).
I “own” $100 of Apple, but only had to put up $20 and no one knows I own it.
At the end of every day, we settle up on the account.
If the value of the Apple stock in my account rises, my banker pays me in cash the value of that rise.
If the value of the Apple stock in my account falls, I have to post additional margin (to make my banker feel safe!).
Note: I am definitely simplifying the mechanics of a swap contract for illustrative purposes. There are many types and flavors of swaps, but most follow the basic structure laid out above.
Back to Archegos...
Bill Hwang used swaps to amass large long positions (again, not an uncommon practice for hedge funds!).
He built positions in stocks like ViacomCBS, Baidu, and GSX.
He had accounts with many banks, including Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Credit Suisse.
As the stocks rose rapidly in early 2021, he used the cash his swap contracts were paying him to enter new swaps, increase his leverage, and buy even more.
It was a self-fulfilling prophecy: rising prices enabled more leverage and more buying, further accelerating the rise.
At its peak, Archegos had built a ~$100 billion portfolio and Bill Hwang was worth ~$30 billion.
Importantly, as the positions were held at banks and not disclosed on 13F filings, the extent of the positions and leverage was largely unknown.
But then it all came crashing down.
On March 22, ViacomCBS, which had seen its stock 3x in the prior months (perhaps from Archegos’ aggressive buying) announced a $3 billion stock sale.
Its share price tumbled 30% in the two days that followed the announcement.
Suddenly, Archegos’ levered bets were underwater.
This meant that the value of the stock being held on the bank balance sheets was lower than the amount that was loaned to buy the positions.
The banks would be able to seize a portion of Archegos’ collateral in order to make themselves whole.
The banks allegedly asked Archegos to sell its positions and close the contracts.
This would mean Hwang would take a small loss but the banks would be whole.
The problem was that if the stocks dropped much more, Archegos would be wiped out and even the banks might take a loss.
The bankers from the different banks convened a meeting to discuss what to do.
Some believed the best path was to wait - the stocks would recover and everything would be fine.
Others weren’t so sure and began offloading large blocks of Archegos’ stock to mitigate their risk.
A classic deleveraging spiral was set in motion.
As the banks seized Archegos’ collateral and sold large blocks of the stock, the stock prices began to drop.
Seeing the further stock price drops, Archegos’ other bankers, who had been inclined to wait, began doing the same.
With the dust settled, it was time to assess the damage.
Archegos’ banks had offloaded ~$100 billion of stock.
Several (the late movers who had tried to wait) had lost billions in the process.
And Archegos had seen its estimated $20 billion capital base vanish into thin air...
The details of the Archegos saga are still unfolding.
It has many markers of a classic tale of Wall Street collapse, including excessive leverage, esoteric contracts, and epic losses.
But what may make the story more interesting is its lack of another classic marker: greed.
Bill Hwang does not appear to have been motivated by the accumulation of wealth or status.
His religious, charitable, frugal life is in direct conflict with the archetype of the Wall Street villain.
The complexity of his character adds to the mystique of this crazy story.
So that is the story of Archegos Capital Management, Bill Hwang, and how $20 billion was made and lost in the blink of an eye.
For more on Archegos and the dangers of leverage, check out this article from Bloomberg.
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Kaizen is a powerful concept for unlocking growth in your career, startup, business, writing, or life.
A short thread on what it means and the magic of continuous improvement...
Kaizen is a Japanese word meaning “improvement.”
In practice, the term is used to convey continuous improvement.
It is a dynamic process - ongoing, incremental, compounding daily improvements.
The origin of the concept of Kaizen is long, winding, and global in nature.
In the 1930s, Walter Shewhart - a Bell Labs engineer - had developed the Plan-Do-Study-Act System (PDSA) to assess the effectiveness of organizational changes in driving continued business improvement.
Shewhart had mentored a young engineer named W. Edwards Deming, who went to Japan after WWII as part of the post-war recovery efforts.
Deming implemented and improved upon his mentor’s ideas and helped to drive the remarkable post-war economic growth in Japan.
But the concept of Kaizen began to build a mainstream following with the works of Masaaki Imai, a Japanese organizational theorist and consultant.
In 1986, he published a best-seller, entitled “Kaizen: The Key to Japan’s Competitive Success” and founded The Kaizen Institute.
Kaizen prioritizes small, daily improvements (rather than large, step-function leaps).
It teaches that progress and growth are the result of daily actions to drive the small improvements.
It teaches that progress and growth are achievable for anyone willing to put in the work.
The great James Clear shared a powerful visualization of the magic of Kaizen.
“If you get one percent better each day for one year, you'll end up thirty-seven times better by the time you’re done.”
The math doesn’t lie. Kaizen - continuous improvement - is the way.
“The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” - Lao Tzu
As you embark on your own thousand-mile journey - whether in your career or life - always remember the incredible power of small, consistent, daily progress.
Always remember the power of Kaizen.
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Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Focus is a competitive advantage.
But in a noisy world, it is increasingly difficult to find.
5 tactics for finding focus in your career, startup, or life:
1 - Eliminate Low-Value Decisions
Mark Zuckerberg is famous for having only one outfit in his closet.
While an extreme example, there is a lesson here: Eliminate decisions that require energy but do not create commensurate value.
Redeploy that energy into high-value decisions.
2 - Sprint Then Rest
The human mind is not designed to be on at all times.
It needs rest.
Work in short blocks (1-2 hours).
You can schedule the blocks - I call it "deep work" on my calendar - or leave yourself more flexibility.
Use biology to your advantage: sprint then rest.
3 - Noise Cancellation
The world is noisy. We are constantly being hit by stimuli competing for our attention.
Learn to tune out and zone in.
Noise-canceling headphones can be an unimaginably helpful tool.
Find your "in the zone" soundtrack and play it on repeat.
4 - Sleep Tight
It may seem contrarian in the hustle culture era, but deep, restful sleep is critical to finding focus.
I am a culprit. I used to say I would "sleep when I was dead" - I've changed my mind.
Better sleep is perhaps the single greatest unlock for your performance.
5 - Train Your Mind
We train our bodies, why not our minds?
Practice meditation - start with 5 minutes a day and build up from there. There are plenty of great apps to help you get started.
You'll find yourself better able to process daily stressors and focus on the task at hand.
These are 5 tactics for finding focus. What are some others you would add to the list?
Additionally, here are a few high ROI tools and resources related to these tactics that I have personally found useful:
For better sleep and performance: White Noise Maker & Athletic Greens
For a powerful mind: Meditation App
For tuning out the noise: Noise Canceling Headphones
Enjoy this and want to share it with family and friends? You can find the original thread below. Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
Ikigai is a powerful concept for finding purpose and clarity to unlock growth in your career, startup, business, writing, or relationships.
A thread on its meaning and how it can change your life...
Ikigai is a combination of the Japanese words “iki” (or “life”) and “gai” (a term to describe value or worth).
It roughly translates to “reason for being.”
It is all-encompassing - it is not simply about work, money, or success - it is about the full scope of your existence.
Ikigai is the point of balance and harmony in your life and work.
It is found at the intersection of:
What you love to do
What you are good at
What the world needs
What you can be paid for
Importantly, it is at the nexus of passion and practicality.
The concept of Ikigai can be traced back to 12th century Japan, but its exact genesis is unknown.
It gained a mainstream following after Dan Buettner’s famous 2009 Ted Talk on his research on Blue Zones (regions where people live longer than average).
In his research, Dan Buettner found that purpose and fulfillment led to improved longevity.
Put simply, embracing the concept of Ikigai contributed to enhanced health (mental and physical) and longer lifespans.
To implement the concept of Ikigai in your life, create your personal Ikigai Venn diagram.
Start with the passions: What do you truly love to do? What are you really good at? What can you become good at?
Now get practical: What does the world need? What will it pay you for?
The elegance of the concept of Ikigai is in its blend of passion and practicality.
Life is a multivariate problem. Simple, uniplanar solutions and one-size-fits-all mantras fall short.
Ikigai recognizes this and forces a dynamic, systems approach to finding purpose.
Separately, for those of you who are interested in growing your audience on Twitter, I will be co-hosting a cohort-based course with my good friend Julian Shapiro that will teach you tactics for building an audience. You can sign up here to be on the list and learn more. Stay tuned - it’s going to be great.
Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
The story of the week in the business world is the blockage of the Suez Canal by a massive container ship. Weighing 200,000 metric tons, dislodging the ship is no easy problem to solve.
But while it happened in 2021, the roots of this problem date back to 1937, when a truck driver from North Carolina had a simple idea that would completely change the world.
Malcolm Purcell McLean was born in 1913 in Maxton, North Carolina.
The son of a farmer, McLean learned the value of hard work from a young age.
Unable to afford college, he went to work at a gas station. By age 21, he had saved enough money to buy a used truck.
It was from these humble beginnings that Malcolm McLean founded McLean Trucking Co. in 1934.
The business focused on transporting empty tobacco barrels, livestock feed, and produce. Originally confined to the Mid-Atlantic, McLean Trucking quickly expanded its reach.
In 1937, after completing a haul from Fayetteville to Hoboken, McLean was forced to wait for hours in his hot truck while the stevedores worked their way to his load.
He realized there had to be a more efficient way to do all of this.
The current method - with individual crates unloaded by stevedores, placed into a sling, and lifted into the ship's hold - was time consuming, expensive, and inefficient.
As he continued to build a trucking empire over the next decade, the idea constantly gnawed at him.
By 1955, Malcolm McLean had built McLean Trucking Co. into one of the largest trucking operations in the country, with >1,700 trucks and locations.
But the future he envisioned went well beyond trucking, so he set out to build a new reality.
McLean dreamed up a standardized truck trailer that could be easily loaded and stacked onto ships or trains.
In his mind, "containerized cargo" was to be the future of shipping and logistics.
Efficient logistics would mean improved commerce and a thriving economy.
In 1955, to expand his reach, he sought to acquire Pan-Atlantic Steamship Company - a cargo and passenger operation with docking rights at key port cities.
But when railroad executives attempted to block the deal on anti-trust grounds, McLean was forced to make a decision.
Malcolm McLean decided to bet on himself and his big idea. He sold his ownership stake in McLean Trucking for $6 million (~$58 million today) and used it to purchase Pan-Atlantic.
He quickly set about to make his vision for the future of logistics into a reality.
Renaming it Sea-Land Industries, in 1956, he purchased two World War II tankers and retrofitted them to carry his newly designed standardized containers.
The SS Ideal X set sail on its maiden voyage in April 1956, carrying 58 of McLean's containers from New Jersey to Houston.
With the initial success, McLean kicked off a marketing tour to convince key players to rethink their operations.
With 25% lower transportation costs, safer storage, and cheaper insurance, he won over customers.
With lower port labor costs, he won over port authorities.
McLean's big idea for "containerization" took the shipping and logistics world by storm.
By the late-1960s, Sea-Land Industries had 27,000+ containers, 36 ships, and covered 30 major ports.
McLean had built the single largest cargo shipping business in the world.
In 1969, R.J. Reynolds purchased Sea-Land Industries for $530 million (~$3.8 billion today).
Malcolm McLean personally made $160 million (~$1.1 billion today) on the sale.
His transformation from truck driver to global shipping magnate was officially complete.
The legend of Malcolm McLean's innovation extends well-beyond his personal success.
"Containerization" enabled the rapid expansion of global trade. Without it, our global economy would simply not be possible, and the Suez Canal blockage may never have occurred.
Malcolm McLean died in 2001 at age 87, but his legacy lives on.
For more on the amazing story of Malcolm McLean and the containerization of the world, I highly recommend reading The Box by Marc Levinson.
For those of you who are interested in growing your audience on Twitter or your newsletter, I will be co-hosting a cohort-based course with my good friend Julian Shapiro that will teach you tactics for building an audience. You can sign up here to be on the list and learn more. Stay tuned - it’s going to be great.
Subscribe now and follow me on Twitter so you never miss a thread.
Until next time, stay curious, friends!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com
10 competitive advantages you can start developing today
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sahilbloom.substack.com