UPTHINKING FINANCE: Recent Episodes
Emerson Fersch
A Podcast that offers a unique and discerning view of economics and financial planning
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
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In this episode of Upthinking Finance, we’re joined by returning guest Alex Krainer, a former hedge fund manager, market analyst, and outspoken commentator on global affairs, who shares candid perspectives on looming global tensions and his personal mission to help others understand the forces shaping our economic and political landscape.
We discuss the fragility of current international alliances, the unraveling of the European Union, the global “darkness before the dawn”, from the U.S.-Russia relationship to the mechanics of debt-driven economies, and the importance of grassroots businesses in restoring prosperity.
This episode isn’t just about finance; it’s about the real human impact of policy, war, and change. Tune in for a candid, global view that connects the dots between the news, the markets, and everyday life.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Embracing humility in trend following (03:38) * Is the EU on life support? (08:19) * Socio-political unrest in Europe with real-world examples (16:22) * Europe vs. United States political dynamics (20:11) * Trump's global vs. domestic stance (27:07) * Central Bank's impact on stocks (35:50) * How to revive American industry (42:32)
Europe’s Unraveling: The End of an Era?One of the most provocative ideas explored is the potential collapse of the European Union. Alex characterizes the EU’s current condition as “the dying phase,” likening its centralized, unaccountable bureaucracy to a modern-day Soviet Union. The EU’s decision-making, he argues, has become increasingly detached from the will of European citizens; key policies are often dictated by unelected officials, who frequently prioritize the interests of corporate lobbyists over those of the public.
He points to rising grassroots movements across the continent, sovereignist parties, mass marches, and political crises as evidence that Europeans are waking up to policies they view as anti-human and destructive to communities. From controversial migration policies in Croatia to aggressive agricultural reforms that harm local farmers, the sense of crisis is palpable. Craner is blunt: if institutional avenues for change are blocked, social upheaval and even violence become a real risk, drawing a direct historical parallel to the French Revolution.
Despite this bleak outlook, he believes that this time, there is an alternative: stronger ties with Russia and China and potential participation in new economic and security alliances (like BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative). This eastward shift could, in theory, offer Europe a lifeline beyond its current structures.
U.S. - Russia RapprochementThere is a bright spot in Alex’s analysis. He sees the recent normalization of relations between the United States and Russia, under a renewed Trump administration, in his view, as one of the most hopeful developments in recent years. Given the nuclear capabilities of both countries, dialogue is essential, and Alex credits Trump with taking a decisive step back from the brink of large-scale conflict.
While European prospects are fraught, Alex sees the United States’ federal structure, armed citizenry, and local systems of accountability as reasons to believe America might weather the coming turbulence with more resilience, possibly achieving a “soft landing” as opposed to the “depression” he fears for Europe.
Debt, Markets, and Monetary ReformAlex argues that central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, are the primary force moving markets. As long as they continue quantitative easing and inject liquidity, assets will inflate. However, this “solution” risks runaway price inflation, eating away at real wealth even as markets hit record highs.
The sheer scale of public and private debt makes eventual systemic reform unavoidable. No tweak to central bank policy will solve problems rooted in a credit market debt approaching $110 trillion in the U.S. alone. Alex foresees the need for a complete overhaul: a return to a banking system that supports local businesses, entrepreneurs, and the middle class, restoring genuine economic dynamism.
While the road ahead is undeniably fraught, Alex believes that deep systemic change, both political and financial, is necessary. Whether that change comes peacefully or through upheaval remains to be seen. But as both Europe and the U.S. stand at historic crossroads, the seeds of renewal may yet be sown in these turbulent times.
Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Nick Murray
Connect With Alex Krainer* Alex Krainer on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Most retirement planning tends to focus on the financial side, but on this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we welcome Dr. Sara Yogev, clinical psychologist and author of “A Couple’s Guide to Happy Retirement and Aging.” We’re digging into the often-overlooked emotional and psychological aspects of transitioning into retirement.
Drawing on over 30 years of experience, Dr. Yogev unpacks why psychological preparation is just as important as financial security, and sometimes even more challenging. We explore why retirement represents one of life’s biggest transitions, the stages most people experience, and the surprises that can catch even the most financially savvy off guard.
Dr. Yogev offers practical advice on how to mentally prepare for retirement, maintain purpose and connection, establish a routine that brings true satisfaction, and navigate changes within relationships.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Feeling inadequate without a career identity [06:40] * Focus on increasing "joy span" for successful aging and retirement [11:48] * Diversify your social portfolio [16:01] * How to balance time alone, together as a couple, and with family [18:16] * Be adaptable and open to change in family connections and expectations [21:59] * Harmonizing post-retirement relationships [27:52] * Gradually incorporate big changes, like relocating for a smoother transition [35:10] * Retirement requires more mental as well as financial preparation [39:09]
Preparing for the Psychological Transition to RetirementMost financial conversations about retirement revolve around money—accumulating enough savings, securing income, and ensuring a comfortable lifestyle. Yet, as Dr. Sara Yogev, clinical psychologist and author of “A Couple’s Guide to Happy Retirement and Aging”, points out, there’s a world beyond spreadsheets and investment portfolios.
The emotional, mental, and relational challenges that come with stepping out of the workforce are just as critical to address as the financial ones. People really neglect psychological planning and preparation for retirement.
They think, “Oh, if I have enough money, it’s fine.” But considering that retirement can last anywhere from one-third to one-fourth of your life, ignoring the psychological aspects can lead to dissatisfaction and discord—even for those who are financially secure.
Navigating the Emotional LandscapeRetirement, like any major life transition, comes in stages. The initial honeymoon phase can last from six months to two years before giving way to a stage of disenchantment. Here, retirees might grapple with the loss of work-based identity and purpose.
For many, professional life was more than a source of income—it was a wellspring of meaning, structure, and community. And when these roles fall away, so too can one’s sense of self. Work often defines who we are. It’s our identity, a way to feel useful and productive, and effective. And when that is gone, how do you replace it?
Preparing emotionally for retirement, therefore, is about more than intellectual awareness that change is coming; it's about proactive exploration of what brings satisfaction, joy, and connection outside of one’s career.
Creating Your New Routine and IdentityOne of Dr. Yogev’s central recommendations is for pre-retirees to spend time thinking about their future lives in greater detail: “What’s my day, what’s my week, what’s my month, what’s my year going to look like?” Constructing a satisfying routine is crucial for well-being. This might mean reengaging with hobbies or volunteering for causes close to your heart.
She introduces the concept of “joyspan”—the idea of focusing not just on longevity, but on maximizing the time spent in contentment and fulfillment. Engage in activities that give you satisfaction regardless of the outcome. Even if you’re not going to become a concert pianist, you might still find deep joy in learning to play for your own enjoyment.
Purpose, too, is a key ingredient in successful aging. Studies have shown that people with a sense of purpose live longer and happier. For some, this means giving back or deepening skills; for others, it may simply be about staying curious and engaged.
Relationships, Routines, and the New Dynamics of HomeRetirement doesn’t just affect the individual; it reshapes couple dynamics, friendships, and family ties. Dr. Yogev highlights three main areas where friction often arises for couples: time together versus apart, division of household labor, and money management.
Couples who looked forward to spending time together might find their expectations suddenly out of sync, leading to misunderstandings or even the phenomenon known in Japan as “retired husband syndrome.”
Friendships, too, can shift as colleagues fade from the picture and adult children and grandchildren’s lives grow busier. Dr. Yogev stresses the importance of diversifying your “social portfolio” and remaining open to new connections, activities, and even living arrangements, such as trying out a new city for an extended stay before a full relocation.
A successful retirement is as much a psychological and relational journey as a financial one. By preparing emotionally, staying open to growth, nurturing relationships, and crafting satisfying routines, you can enter retirement not just with security, but with vitality and meaning.
Dr. Sara Yogev is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* A Couple’s Guide to Happy Retirement and Aging by Dr. Sara Yogev * Jim Rohn * Dr. Kerry Burnight
Connect With Dr. Sara Yogev* Sara Yogev, PhD
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Melissa Ciummei, an independent investor and researcher in Northern Ireland, joins us on Upthinking Finance™ to take a global look at the rapidly evolving world of digital currencies, digital IDs, and the shifting economic landscape.
We discuss the push for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the EU, UK, and US, explaining how digital identity is becoming an essential precursor for programmable money and increased financial oversight.
The discussion digs into the societal impacts of these technologies, exploring everything from privacy concerns and geopolitical pressures to generational shifts in values and the consequences of ever-growing inequality.
Whether you’re curious about the politicized rollouts of stablecoins, the quiet move toward digital surveillance, or you want to understand how new technologies are reshaping money, this episode gives you a nuanced perspective on the future of finance and the growing importance of community involvement in shaping that future.
Join us for an eye-opening conversation that connects the dots between economic policy, digital innovation, and the real-life consequences for individuals and society at large.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Digital ID: Foundation before CBDCs [00:00] * EU tensions and trade challenges [06:14] * Why Melissa sees geopolitical and economic tensions rising [07:30] * Why Digital ID adoption in the US is limited and the focus is on currency [13:23] * Travel fast pass solutions and the impact of using biometrics to skip the line [16:35] * Gold's quiet role in finance [27:16] * Homeownership challenges for younger generations [29:47] * Hackers pose risks, and laws are outdated [36:01] * An example of how community dynamics are changing local politics [44:50]
The Rise of Programmable Money and Digital IdentificationAs the world moves deeper into the digital age, few topics spark more concern or confusion than the twin emergence of programmable money and digital ID systems. But these technological frameworks threaten the autonomy and privacy traditionally associated with money and identity.
At the heart of the discussion was the evolution from fiat currency, where some level of anonymity is preserved, to digital currencies tethered to the state and tech platforms. Melissa highlights that programmable money would be the most dominant thing that people need to think about when considering CBDC.
Once financial and identity data converge, possibilities for control, whether for taxation, surveillance, or social engineering, multiply rapidly.
A Fragmented Push Toward the Digital FutureThe EU is leading the charge to implement digital ID and currency. However, this technocratic race collides with real-time social resistance, especially spiraling around immigration and cultural integration.
Melissa describes a backlash in places like Poland, Ireland, and the UK, where citizens increasingly question the motives behind digital migration controls and see digital ID as a tool of exclusion rather than inclusion.
Turning to the U.S., the conversation covered whether states’ rights and American federal diversity provide meaningful protection against the encroachment of digital money and ID versus the EU’s top-down approach.
Initiatives like Real ID and mobile driver’s licenses represent “function creep”: stepwise moves that make opting out of digital surveillance increasingly inconvenient.
Melissa gives a real-world example from airports, where facial recognition and biometric fast-tracking nudge even skeptical travelers into compliance. Seamless travel or instant payments are the carrot, but gradual loss of privacy and agency is the stick.
The Looming Economic ShiftA key issue threaded through the discussion was whether these advances are responses to deeper economic failures, particularly ballooning government debt and the exhaustion of the fiat system.
The introduction of stablecoins, programmable welfare, and tax rails may patch over cracks, but don’t address underlying imbalances and inflation, increasing inequality, and public alienation are likely to surge.
Despite the daunting picture, the hosts find genuine optimism in the values and behaviors of younger generations. As Melissa puts it, “this generation…they’re not falling for the shiny things…they’re quite difficult then to control.”
For many, authenticity, community, and local engagement trump material consumption and blind trust in institutions. Genuine change starts not with global technocrats but in town councils and neighborhood coalitions.
Small-scale resistance and collective creativity, rather than mass compliance or digital acquiescence, may yet offer a route to a more humane social contract. The journey toward digital currencies and identity systems is about more than technology; it’s about who holds power, how social contracts are rewritten, and what futures we’re willing to trade for convenience.
Resources & People Mentioned* Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went by John Kenneth Galbraith
Connect With Melissa Ciummei* Melissa Ciummei on X
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today's guest is Kristian Kerr, who is the head of macro Strategy at LPL Finance. Before joining LPL, he was the Western region head of foreign exchange and macro at City Private Bank. Before that, he spent a number of years in New York as a global hedge fund manager and is also head of various strategy and trading roles at other global financial institutions.
Kristian believes investment strategy should be both data-driven and guided by human expertise. He says that this balance creates a more dynamic, flexible, and effective investment process that aims to deliver better long-term results. He shares his views on how investors should handle the changing market.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Welcome to Upthinking Finance (00:00) * Kristian shares his process as an advisor (01:20) * The challenge of managing more risk, post 2020 (05:30) * Market correlations changing, impact on portfolio development (09:15) * How geopolitics impact market trends (21:20) * How investing has changed in the past decade (26:10) * What's the value of trend following strategies? (28:00) * How to respond to someone who thinks the financial market will end (35:35)
Kristian Shares His Investment ProcessAs Head of Macro Strategy at LPL, Kristian is responsible for leading the firm’s global investment team, which includes 11 senior research members.
They meet weekly to define LPL’s overall investment strategy and provide top-down guidance for managing approximately $85 billion across separately managed accounts (SMAs) and model portfolios.
He shares that they use a hybrid investment framework that combines: Quantitative (systematic) analysis to efficiently process data, reduce bias, and ensure consistency, and Qualitative (discretionary) insight from experienced professionals to account for factors that can’t be captured by models alone.
Managing More Market Risks Kristian shares how different clients have different levels of awareness about risk, and how portfolio managers often need to manage risk that clients might not even realize exists.
This is especially true in today’s uncertain environment, which is much more complex than it was 10 years ago.
A few of the modern risks include that the standard 60/40 investment strategies are less reliable, the U.S. dollar is at a pivotal point based on its value, and there is financial repression from government strategies at play in the current market.
To manage both visible and hidden risks for clients, Kristian explains that adapting happens by incorporating less correlated, alternative assets to build “all-weather” portfolios that can hold up in a wide range of market conditions.
A Diverse PortfolioKristian values trend-following strategies as a critical part of a diversified portfolio, especially when paired with traditional assets like stocks and bonds.
These strategies shine during extended market downturns (like in 2022), offering protection when equities are struggling.
While they may underperform during short-term market bounces, that's expected as their role is to protect during prolonged stress, not quick dips.
Kristian emphasizes using a “barbell” approach, combining growth-oriented assets with defensive strategies, and highlights the importance of building a toolkit of diversifiers (like long-volatility) to navigate different market regimes and support long-term compounding.
Connect With Kristian Kerr* Kristian Kerr
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today, we have the opportunity to learn more about Emerson Fersch as he shares his personal story, interviewed by Amy LeNoble. Discover more about how Emerson got started in finance, his convictions in business and life, and the experiences that shaped them.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Welcome to Upthinking Finance (00:00) * Emerson Fersch shares how he got started in the financial industry (03:00) * Emerson shares a defining moment in his life (05:20) * How Emerson’s AA experience shaped his life today (11:45) * How Emerson’s childhood influenced who he is now (18:55) * How Emerson’s relationship with God influences his business (23:50) * Emerson shares what he is grateful for in his business (31:50)
Childhood Experiences Developed Intentional AdulthoodEmerson’s childhood was shaped by a joy for baseball. As he grew older, he came to terms with the fact that he didn’t have the skill to pursue the sport professionally. His father, a blunt and hard-working man who battled alcoholism, pointed out Emerson’s early interest in money. This observation proved insightful, as Emerson later found his path working at a bank, eventually landing an unexpected opportunity as a financial advisor. His upbringing left a strong impression, not just in what it taught him, but in what he wanted to avoid.
Witnessing the instability caused by his father’s drinking, Emerson recognized similar struggles in himself as a young adult and made the difficult decision to get sober through the AA program. This commitment to change allowed him to create a stable, drama-free home for his own life and family, where emotional security, a spiritual morality, and self-awareness were priorities. Through conscious effort and reflection, Emerson built a life defined not by the hardships of his past but by the intention to rise above them.
Emerson’s Turning PointAt 24, Emerson reached a turning point in his life when he came across the Johns Hopkins 20 questions, which made him confront the reality of his alcohol abuse. Realizing the depth of his struggle, he began attending Alcoholics Anonymous meetings, where he felt a true sense of belonging. The stories and warnings shared by others in the group resonated deeply with him.
As he worked through the AA program, his search for a Higher Power led him to develop a personal relationship with God, which became the foundation for his commitment to virtues like honesty and integrity. This spiritual connection gave him a deeper sense of accountability, not only to himself but to something greater.
A Business with a Foundation of GodToday, Emerson strives to live by the principles he learned from his relationship with God. Staying honest, actively seeking solutions, and trusting God created security in his business. The discipline and character built through his experiences allow Emerson to be grateful for the relationships and success he has from his business.
Emerson Fersch and Amy LeNoble are Registered Representatives with, and securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
Connect With Amy Lenoble* Capital Investment Advisers * Connect on LinkedIn
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Today’s guest is Charles Hugh Smith, a returning voice of insight and critique. As the founder of the long-running blog OfTwoMinds and a published author, Charles has explored the intersections of society, economics, and technology since 2005. His thought-provoking work is featured across platforms, including Patreon and Substack. Today's interview explores how growing economic inequality and loss of opportunity in America have fueled cultural fragmentation, political polarization, and a crisis of identity, creating a need for value-driven social change.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Welcome to Upthinking Finance (00:00) * Charles Smith’s concern about polarized ideologies (02:00) * The class and generational division of assets (10:00) * Are people losing their value? (19:20) * How to have a spiritual renewal from a social revolution (22:00) * The need for common values (32:00) * How to create reform “cold turkey” (37:00) * Anti-progress and how to overcome it (42:50)
Polarization and Denial Are Undermining Meaningful DialogueCharles explains that public discourse has become dangerously polarized, with people retreating into ideological camps and rejecting compromise. He highlights how America has become increasingly divided economically, geographically, and generationally. This "us vs. them" mentality replaces honest discussion with coercion and moral superiority, which stifles real engagement. He connects this to hypernormalization, a societal state where everyone knows the system is broken but continues pretending otherwise, avoiding the hard truths that real change requires.
Structural Inequality Is Driving Cultural DivisionAmerica’s divide isn’t just political, its division is rooted in real economic and generational inequalities. Charles explains how older generations and urban elites benefited from globalization and cheap assets, while younger and rural Americans were left behind. As opportunity shrinks, people seek identity and purpose in cultural or political tribalism. This fuels resentment, virtue signaling, and a sense of powerlessness that further fragments society.
Social Change comes from Common ValuesReal change starts with people, not the government. Looking at U.S. history, especially in the 1960s and '70s, it was regular people who changed their values first, like caring about the environment, and only then did the government respond. So the process of change goes: values shift, then priorities shift, then systems and incentives follow. Institutions are slow and often driven by old interests, so if we want real progress, it has to come from individuals rethinking what matters. Charles encourages people to keep speaking on it, offering better ideas in hopes of slowly changing minds and, eventually, the system.
Charles Hugh Smith is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Charles Hugh Smith | Self-reliance, invest in yourself, Degrowth, local solutions | Patreon * Charles H Smith - YouTube
Connect With Charles Hugh Smith* Weblog and Essays - Of Two Minds By Charles Hugh Smith
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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It’s a pleasure to welcome back to the show, Mr. Alex Krainer, a highly respected expert in finance and economics. A former hedge fund manager and portfolio manager, Alex is also the founder of I-System Trend Following, an innovative strategy focused on market trends.
He’s authored several books on market dynamics and economic trends, and his insights are in high demand, often featured on podcasts worldwide. Beyond his professional success, Alex is a devoted father of two. Today, we’re excited to have him return to share his expertise and valuable perspective with us again.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Welcome to Upthinking Finance (00:00) * How can tariffs be inflammatory (01:50) * Impact of FIAT currency manipulation (05:45) * Weak currencies of other countries (09:00) * Could tariffs lead to something better? (15:50) * Is globalization dead? (23:00) * Remove emotion out of investing (35:04) * Why you should follow trend investing, now (41:20)
How Tariffs Can Be InflammatoryIs it beneficial for commodity-driven inflation? Does a weak dollar mean a better market? Alex shares with us how tariffs can cause inflation because they raise the price of imported goods, and domestic companies often raise their prices because they face less competition. Plus, without cheap imports, the pressure to keep prices low disappears, leading to higher costs overall.
He explains that while tariffs could theoretically weaken the dollar and make U.S. exports cheaper, he is skeptical about how much this will benefit the U.S. economy because other major currencies are also weak. He also believes that the real impact will be on commodity prices, potentially leading to inflation and that the broader global economic situation makes the future outcome uncertain.
Death of the Global Market?Alex forewarns us that globalization, as we know it (especially the version driven by powerful corporations, elites, and big banks), is either dead or in its dying agony. Essentially, the model where large multinational corporations and too-big-to-fail banks controlled global trade is no longer sustainable.
However, Alex doesn’t believe globalization itself is completely gone. He sees a new form of globalization emerging, driven by entrepreneurs and technology. It’s decentralized, more accessible, and allows ordinary people to create businesses and jobs globally. While the collapse of the old systems may be messy, it’s giving way to a new, hopeful future that’s just taking shape. This new globalization is more personal, meaningful, and decentralized. It allows ordinary people to connect worldwide, create value, and improve their own lives without relying on big corporations. Alex believes this shift is liberating because it gives people more control over their futures, allows them to innovate, and helps them transcend the old, corporate-driven systems that have dominated for so long.
Why Trend Investing is Important NowAlex advises that following trends has always been the most reliable way to make money in the markets. Trends reflect collective human psychology. For example, when people see housing prices going up or a company succeeding, they tend to jump in, further driving up the value. These trends can create big investment opportunities.
One key point Alex makes is that long-term trends are the most powerful drivers of investment success, and those who ride trends tend to do better than most investors who focus on predicting short-term market movements.
In terms of practical investing, Alex suggests diversifying across multiple markets like energy, metals, commodities, and stocks, and capturing trends when they happen. This approach has been successful for hedge funds since the 70s, and it remains the most reliable strategy for long-term, sustainable returns.
Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* About – I-System Trend Following
Connect With Alex Krainer* Alex Krainer | Substack
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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I’m excited to welcome Julia Hermann, CFA, Global Market Strategist at New York Life Investments, to today’s episode. As a director on the Global Market Strategy team, Julia provides valuable economic research, asset allocation insights, and thought leadership that help guide investment decisions. She’s also the co-host of the “Market Matters” podcast.
Before joining New York Life, Julia worked as a Global Market Strategist for an emerging markets equity fund. She’s a CFA Charterholder, a summa cum laude graduate from the University of Notre Dame, and holds a Master’s in International Economics from Johns Hopkins SAIS. Today, Julia will share her insights on global market narratives and their impact on investment strategies moving forward.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Welcome to UPThinking Finance (00:00) * How Julia discovers what information is important to investors (01:30) * How should people develop a reliable market view? (07:00) * The narratives Julia believes have a significant impact on market decision-making (08:30) * Julia’s research strategies about USA Federal debt (10:10) * AI’s influence on the market (16:10) * Impacts of tariffs on businesses and the market (25:00) * Global markets exploring alternatives to the US dollar (31:40)
Julie Herrman is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Market Matters Podcast
Connect With Julia Hermann, CFA* Julia Hermann, CFA * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, Chris Hoke shares the story behind Underground Ministries, an organization dedicated to helping incarcerated individuals reintegrate into society. Also joining us is Corrina Lozano, a former participant whose journey of struggle and redemption highlights the transformative power of the ministry’s support. Through their key programs—gang outreach and One Parish, One Prisoner—Underground Ministries is making a lasting impact on individuals and communities alike.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Underground Ministries with Chris Hoke and Corrina Lozano (00:00) * How the organization Underground Ministries got started (01:30) * Corrina Lozano’s story, from being served to serving others (05:30) * Barriers people getting out of prison face with housing (13:36) * Are barriers and stigmas changing? (22:18) * Intentional giving, telling your money where to go (23:50) * How Underground Ministries gets its funding (25:20)
Chris Hoke and Corrina Lozano are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Checking in with Charles Hugh Smith, Ep #54 * Thoughtful Giving by Peter C Cavelti
Connect with Chris Hoke and Corrina Lozano* Underground Ministries * Chris’s Website
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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How do we reinvigorate a global resistance that seems to have lost its way? In this thought-provoking episode of UPThinking Finance®, John Waters reflects on the challenges facing modern movements for change.
Drawing comparisons to the unity and purpose of past revolutions, like the Velvet Revolution of 1989, Waters questions why today’s resistance struggles to attract artists, intellectuals, and the broader public. He argues that fear, gatekeeping, and fragmentation have stifled the creative voices essential for meaningful progress.
Waters offers a hopeful perspective, urging us to reclaim faith in humanity's potential for redemption and change. By fostering unity, humility, and purpose, he believes we can inspire the global resistance to serve its true goal—benefiting humanity, not power or profit. This reflection is a call to action, reminding us that hope and belief in a better world remain the most powerful tools for change.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Finding John Waters on substack (00:00) * How to talk to people who are unaware of a problem (1:51) * You can’t trust people who are incentivized to follow the narrative (8:18) * Why people won’t speak out about the problems (12:30) * Do we have hope—or do we surrender to the way things are? (16:07) * Concerns and hopes of Trump's team (27:00) * What do the political changes in America mean globally? (31:02) * Question what technology and political systems are for (36:07) * New hope, new thinking (40:00) * Renewed Faith in things to change (52:10)
John Waters is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned The Mythology of Progress* by Charles Hugh Smith
Connect With John Waters* John's Substack
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today’s guest is economist Lyn Alden, an independent analyst and founder of Lyn Alden-Investment Strategy, where she publishes monthly research reports for both retail and institutional investors.
With a background in electrical engineering and a master’s in engineering management specializing in financial modeling, Lyn excels at breaking down complex economic trends into plain English.
She is also a general partner at Ego Death Capital and the author of the 2023 bestseller “Broken Money,” which examines the evolution of money through the lens of technology. In this episode, Lyn offers her perspective on the macroeconomic factors shaping 2025, including political uncertainty, fiscal dominance, and more.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* How Lyn got into investment research [1:50] * The 2024 election’s influence on the economy [8:00] * What happens with the debt ceiling? [16:25] * What Lyn likes better than the dollar and why [22:09] * Lyn’s view on BRICS plans [22:45] * Expiring tax cuts and bank lending [28:40] * Lyn’s experience with Bitcoin [33:55] * Lyn’s advice to avoid complacency [41:40]
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned Broken Money, Lyn Alden* * Ego Death Capital * Lyn Alden-Investment Strategy
Connect With Lyn Alden* Lyn Alden
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today, I want to share a message of hope—one that invites us to reflect on what progress truly looks like in our world today and how it should look moving forward. To help explore this topic, I’m joined by my business partner, Amy LeNoble, and returning guest Charles Hugh Smith.
Charles has been writing about social, economic, and technological trends since 2005 on his widely followed blog. He’s also the author of several thought-provoking books, including his most recent, “Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress, and a Mythology for the 21st Century.”
In this episode, Charles challenges us to rethink the foundation of our hope. He shares a powerful insight: hope is essential to humanity, but when it’s based on fantasies or delusions, it becomes false hope. He explains how our understanding of progress—both its perception and its reality—plays a critical role in shaping genuine hope.
We’ll unpack the core ideas from Charles’s latest book and discuss the broader implications of progress for individuals and humanity as a whole.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Where society stands today and the path that led us here [3:40] * How defining progress has impacted our purchasing power [10:00] * Real progress as the wellbeing and sustainability of life [18:30] * The key triggers that drive social change [24:40] * Solutions that prioritize people over profit [42:30] * Finding hope in the possibility of meaningful change [47:42]
Charles Hugh Smith is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Mythology of Progress, Anti-Progress, and a Mythology for the 21st Century
Connect With Charles Hugh Smith* Charles Hugh Smith
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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In today’s episode, we dive into the significance of the 2024 Presidential Election. While every election impacts the country, this one feels especially critical, with far-reaching consequences that extend beyond U.S. borders.
Our guest is Alex Krainer, a former hedge fund manager, market analyst, and creator of the I-System trend-following model. With his unique global perspective, we explore the potential implications of this election on both the U.S. and the world.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Is it possible that the 2024 presidential election won't happen? [2:15]
- What is really going on? A clash of systems of governance [8:12]
- What's weighing on voters, domestic policies for candidates [12:20]
- What Alex says is the only choice in the election [16:13]
- Are people waking up to the corruption of the systems? [21:52]
- How do you know what to believe or trust anymore? [27:55]
- Anything that gives Alex hope about the political system? [40:39]
- The American people have all the potential to build the US back up [48:55]
Resources & People Mentioned* Trend Investing Models * The Wisdom of Crowds * The Trend Following Bible
Connect With Alex Krainer* Follow on X * Alex's Substack * The Naked Hedgie
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today's episode is for anyone interested in learning about the intricacies of investing in the financial markets. Are you wondering what the fiat currency system is, or are you curious about how financial analysis works?
We explore perspectives on the currency market and how it impacts investment strategies. We discuss the complex relationships between financial concepts that influence the value of currency. We discuss quantitative analysis and how leveraging it can help maximize investment portfolios.
Charles Ashley, a portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds, holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Michigan State University and an MBA from the University of Michigan, Ross School of Business. In this episode, he breaks down abstract financial concepts with real-world market applications.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* How does the currency market work? [1:40] * The strength of the dollar is a matter of perspective [4:15] * How the balance of trade influences the value of the dollar [6:15] * The relationship between currency yield and inflation [10:20] * What the currency carry trade is, and how it affects the market [16:30] * How does quantitative analysis compare to mutual funds [31:00] * The need for human logic in quantitative analysis [36:20] * Quantitative analysis investing strategies [43:40]
Charles Ashley is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now
Connect With Charles Ashley* Charles Ashley - Catalyst Funds
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Is the U.S. economy heading for a crisis, or is it still the safest bet in the global marketplace?
Peter Cavelti, an expert with over 50 years of experience in investment and geopolitical analysis, returns to talk about the Fed's recent rate cut, the future of the U.S. dollar, and global economic shifts.
In our wide-ranging conversation, Peter goes pretty deep into why predictions of the dollar's imminent collapse might be exaggerated. Plus we talk about the rising influence of the BRICS nations, and how the United States' debt burden could lead to significant economic consequences.
Cavelti also shares insights into the challenges facing global powers like Europe and Japan, and the shifting dynamics in international capital flows.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Are recent Fed rate cuts a game-changer for the U.S. economy? [0:28] * Will the Fed’s policy shifts shake up the global economy? [2:57] * Is the U.S. dollar’s dominance under serious threat?. [7:00] * Is the growing U.S. debt leading us to a financial crisis? [4:00] * What does the wealth gap mean for the future of America’s middle class? [20:00] * Why should you avoid investing in liabilities during uncertain times? [27:10] * Could negative interest rates hit the U.S.? [34:10] * Are Europeans more disillusioned with their governments than Americans? [42:10]
Peter Cavelti is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* U.S. Federal Reserve recent developments * BRICS * U.S. Treasury Bonds
Connect With Peter Cavelti* Peter Cavelti’s website: www.cavelti.com
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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A common theme among the guests of UPThinking Finance™ is that the global economy is derailing, and wealth and inequality are leading us to a day of reckoning. However, this sense is not just about monetary implications—there is a spiritual element as well.
There’s a concern that a personal consciousness or self-awareness is needed to create a global transformation. My guest, Emma Slade, is here to talk about her transformative shift from being a global chartered financial analyst to a Buddhist Monk.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- How Emma became interested in the financial world [2:40]
- Emma's survival of a traumatic event led to a change of heart about her work [11:25]
- Emma’s transformation from Market Banker to Buddhist [15:20]
- Emma's Buddhist training created desire to start her charity [21:10]
- How Emma describes the Kingdom of Bhutan [28:10]
- Emma’s belief in transforming from a material state to spiritual development [32:30]
Emma Slade is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Emma Slade* Opening Your Heart To Bhutan * Opening Your Heart To Bhutan on Facebook * Emma's YouTube Channel * Emma's TEDx Talk * Emma's Website * Emma's Book: Set Free
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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How will the upcoming US elections impact the geopolitical landscape? We recently saw an attempt on former President Trump’s life. Biden “bowed out” of running for another term. How does that play a role in upcoming elections? We’ve seen and continue to see the pollution of elections worldwide. Will things change? John Waters and Alex Krainer return to discuss the current geopolitical landscape in episode #59 of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Running for office in Ireland [1:40] * The pollution of elections worldwide [7:31] * Dissecting the attempted assassination [12:07] * Why the upcoming US election is important [23:12] * It’s either Trump or hell on earth [29:06] * The dictatorship of compassion [38:54] * Will we see an awakening in Europe? [44:29] * John and Alex’s final thoughts [52:18]
John Waters and Alex Krainer are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With John Waters and Alex Krainer* Alex Krainer's TrendCompass * John Waters Unchained
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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What is the status of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)? How could creating global division ultimately lead to humanity’s loss of control? How can we open our eyes and really see what’s going on before it’s too late?
In this episode of UpThinking Finance™, Melissa Ciummei—an independent investor and researcher in Northern Ireland—returns to revisit CBDCs, the balance of power, and what individuals can do to fight for their freedom.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The status of CBDCs [1:03] * Eyes are being opened [16:33] * Division is the ultimate goal [30:35] * The status of Ireland [37:40] * The world’s perception of the US [40:04] * Melissa’s final thoughts [45:36] * We must hope in humanity [50:37]
Melissa Ciummei is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* BIS Annual Report 2023/2024 * CBDCs and the Coming Reset with Melissa Ciummei, Ep #35 * CBDC Tracker
Connect With Melissa Ciummei* Follow on Twitter
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Tom Luongo is a former research chemist and part-time goat farmer. He publishes the “Gold Goats ‘N Guns” blog, a monthly newsletter, and records podcasts. His work is also published in Bitcoin magazine and syndicated regularly on sites like ZeroHedge, Investing.com, etc. Tom has a unique way of connecting geopolitical dots. In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, I pick his brain about some of the latest things he’s written about.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The parallels between Shadowfist and geopolitics[1:56] * The last 10 years of history [12:53] * Does the long-term end goal ever change? [22:18] * Welcome to Splitsville [28:09] * Is it “every man for himself?” [34:17] * LIBOR, SOFR, and the Fed [38:03] * Chevron, Trump, and Jarkesy [49:00]
Tom Luongo is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Jarkesy Case * Shadowfist
Connect With Tom Luongo* Tom’s Patreon * Gold Goats ‘N Guns
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Cynthia Chung’s education taught her that energy consumption is destroying our world. It taught her that the hole in our ozone layer was growing. It taught her that the destruction of rainforests was wreaking havoc on humanity. Industry was portrayed as something that killed anything it touched.
Cynthia’s research paints a far different picture. Cynthia dives into the fallacy of green energy in her docuseries, “Escaping Calypso’s Island.”
In her series, Cynthia points out that our entire lives revolve around energy usage. Access to the best medical care, nutritious food, clean water, and adequate shelter depends on energy. Access to affordable energy has diminished poverty, lengthened life, and increased quality of life.
We’re being told that there isn’t enough energy to go around, and that we have to focus on green initiatives. But is that true? Dive deeper with us in this episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn about Cynthia Chung and the Rising Tide Foundation [2:01] * Why “specialization” is a new and often unnecessary concept [10:11] * Your reality won’t always meet your expectations [14:38] * Explaining Cynthia’s reference to Calypso’s Island [17:41] * The fallacy of game theory [21:05] * How Cynthia discerns through the BS [32:37] * Why renewable energy doesn’t help the environment [36:05] * Dissecting the lies we’re being fed [38:32] * Green energy is causing worldwide suffering [39:57] * Through a Glass Darkly [44:51]
Resources & People Mentioned* The Empire on which the Black Sun Never Set https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7-7NxjVy0A
Connect With Cynthia Chung* https://cynthiachung.substack.com/ * https://risingtidefoundation.net/
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Richard Laterman is a Portfolio Manager at ReSolve Asset Management, Inc. with 18 years of investment experience in capital markets. He has the unique ability to take complex information and boil it down into something concise and understandable.
In his role, he provides us with invaluable information about geopolitical events, economic events, and the markets. In this conversation, we get Richard’s opinion on the world, the drive to embrace alternative strategies, and the necessity of leaning into discomfort.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The typical day in the life of Richard Laterman [2:39] * Richard’s current view of the world [6:58] * Living to work instead of working to live [18:55] * The drive to embrace alternative strategies [22:51] * Let’s get comfortable being uncomfortable [32:26] * What will accelerate change? [39:10]
Richards Laterman is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Doomberg SubStack * The Master and His Emissary by Iain McGilchrist
Connect With Richard Laterman* ReSolve Asset Management * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Can we find an answer to the world’s ills? Is a return to a gold standard feasible? Can we keep our current system from imploding? Do we even want to? In this conversation, Charles Hugh Smith gets into the weeds on the socioeconomic issues we’re facing. We talk about whether or not a new economic system is the answer or if a focus on relocalization and self-reliance may be key to inciting change.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Why the gold standard isn’t sustainable [2:34] * Can we keep our current system from imploding? [8:47] * What could a new economic system look like? [14:50] * What about a universal basic income? [21:32] * Increasing rates of hopelessness and depression [27:23] * Relocalization: Self-reliance in the 21st century [37:34] * The next generation was born for this time [42:43] * The systems we rely on are failing, so what’s next? [44:12] * Why we’re positive about the future of humanity [49:29]
Charles Hugh Smith is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Myth of Capitalism
Connect With Charles Hugh Smith* Charles’ blog: Of Two Minds * Charles’ Patreon * Self-Reliance in the 21st Century
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Inflation continues to rise. Interest rates are at 30-year highs. Gold is at all-time highs. There’s geopolitical conflict and confusion everywhere. Yet most global equity markets continue to go up. Where do you turn to get rational analysis, advice, or opinions?
Today’s guest brings three decades of experience to the equation. Charles Heenan is the Co-Investment Director at Kennox Asset Management. He’s adopted a distinct value approach to global investing over the last 30 years. He shares some insight into global investing (and why it’s important to diversify internationally) in this episode of UPThinking Finance™!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn more about Charles’ equity firm: Kennox [2:27] * How things have evolved since the 90s [9:07] * A perspective from the other side of the ocean [12:13] * The impact of global debt on global economies [15:23] * Diversification and trusting the process [20:59] * The Kennox approach to global investing [25:55] * Many investments require patience [31:32] * How Kennox conducts global research [40:43] * How instinct plays a role in decision-making [43:25]
Charles Heenan is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest by Edward Chancellor
Connect With Charles Heenan* https://kennox.co.uk/
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Kevin Flanagan started his career as a Fed watcher i.e. money market economist working on the trading floor. As a fixed-income strategist, he looks at things from a broad perspective because numerous things impact the bond market—economics, geopolitics, elections, etc. All play a role in how the bond market and interest rates are developed.
He found it fascinating that you could look at the past and present to gain insight into the future. Kevin joins me in this episode of UPThinking Finance™ to shed some light on this confusing topic.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The “new” old-rate regime [1:59] * When the Fed’s role shifted [8:36] * Politics playing a role in policy [14:51] * Current impacts on inflation [16:55] * The impact of foreign money [21:55] * What will happen with US debt? [24:50] * The performance of the municipal market [28:40] * Where Kevin sees the bond market headed [30:45] * The connection between the 10-year and gold [32:47] * How Kevin got into the fixed-income arena [35:02]
Kevin Flanagan is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Kevin Flanagan* Wisdom Tree * Basis Points Podcast * Follow on Twitter
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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This episode marks the second anniversary of UPThinking Finance™. Alex Krainer was our guest for our first anniversary, so it made perfect sense to invite him back again. In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, he speaks on both financial topics and the ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The turmoil in the financial markets [2:02] * How does this thing blow up? [6:45] * Is a black swan event going to happen? [9:56] * Will the Fed eventually lose its power? [15:09] * Numerous countries are united in a hatred of the US [17:11] * Why it’s time to find a different way [23:58] * How Alex would overhaul the financial system [26:34] * The current social arrangement doesn’t work [36:51]
Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Alex Krainer* alexkrainer.substack.com/ * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Our thoughts and ideas are being molded through the clever use of psychology. Our enemies aren’t generals and admirals but behavioral scientists and psychologists. They know how the brain operates and how to manipulate it.
In 2010, after years in the music industry, DJ Mark Devlin underwent a “conscious awakening.” He started to study the mainstream music industry and how A-list artists have been used to manipulate and mind-control the masses.
In 2016, He published “Musical Truth: Exposing the Mind-Control Manipulations of the Corporate Music Industry.” We discuss how humanity is being manipulated through music and popular culture in this fascinating episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Mark’s awakening about the music industry [5:32] * The history of manipulation [20:37] * What music isn’t manipulated? [28:35] * What is the price of fame? [34:52] * We have the power of choice [40:41] * Mark’s upcoming tour in the US [43:00]
DJ Mark Devlin is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Cause & The Cure * The Sound of Freedom
Connect With DJ Mark Devlin* Mark’s website * Odysee * Musical Truth
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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The media is completely disconnected from reality. We’ve all known it for a while. The challenge becomes—if we don’t trust the news—where do we source information? How do we filter it? How do we discern the truth?
When did spreading propaganda begin? When did the news become a source we could no longer trust? Michelle Stiles wrote the book, “One Idea To Rule Them All: Reverse Engineering American Propaganda,” to answer these questions. It’s written to expose the realities of the world we live in, in terms of the role of propaganda and manipulation. Don’t miss this eye-opening conversation.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* What propelled Michelle to study propaganda [3:34] * George Creel’s WWI propaganda [6:57] * Le Bon: The origins of mass persuasion [10:47] * Bernays: The idea of stagecraft [13:45] * The infrastructure of belief [16:35] * Why do we trust the propaganda? [23:37] * Deconstructing what we’ve been told [30:25] * Michelle’s research on the American Red Cross [37:47]
Resources & People Mentioned* The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind * Propaganda by Edward Bernays * The Four Agreements: A Practical Guide to Personal Freedom
Connect With Michelle Stiles* Michelle’s website: Smart Sheepe * Get the book and study guide * One Idea To Rule Them All: Reverse Engineering American Propaganda
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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If there was ever an industry where history repeats itself, finance is at the top of the list. Russell Napier has worked in investing for over 30 years. He’s written exceptional books, including “The Anatomy of the Bear” and “The Asian Financial Crisis.” He’s the Founder and Course Director for the Practical History of Financial Markets, an online course at the Edinburgh Business School.
In 2014, he founded the charitable venture, “The Library of Mistakes,” a business and financial history library based in Scotland with branches in India and Switzerland. They recently threw their “Mistake of the Year Awards.” Listen to our conversation to learn from the mistakes that were made so that history doesn’t have to repeat itself.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn more about the Library of Mistakes [1:57] 4 * The Mistake of the Year Awards nominations [8:42] * How quickly money can be lost [11:05] * European governments backing pensions [13:09] * The rapid decline of Farfetch [15:49] * 3rd Place: Credit Suisse [19:33] * 2nd Place: FTX [25:46] * 1st place: The Silicon Valley Bank [32:33] * The lessons learned from great mistakes [42:45]
Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Emerson Fersch is a registered representative with and securities and advisory services are offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Mistake of the Year Award * The Library of Mistakes * The Library of Mistakes Podcasts * The Psychopath Test: A Journey Through the Madness Industry
Connect With Russell Napier* Connect on LinkedIn * The Solid Ground Newsletter
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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I often feel like I’m living two lives. There’s the world I live in that I can see around me. Then there’s the world I can’t see but can feel in my heart. The gap between them seems to be getting wider and wider. Something is amiss. Is there a day of reckoning coming? Is change going to happen?
John Waters is a man who isn’t afraid to speak the truth. He’s able to put words to how many of us are feeling. In this captivating episode of UPThinking Finance™, John Waters returns to talk about the current state of the world, whether or not we’re in a spiritual war, and how to take steps in the right direction.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The current state of Ireland (and the world) [2:07] * What can we anchor ourselves to? [12:12] * Is change going to happen? [17:51] * Are we in a spiritual war? [23:18] * The God we found in Alcoholics Anonymous [29:47] * Taking steps in the right direction [41:08] * Live your life to the fullest today [44:07]
Resources & People Mentioned* The Sibling Society by Robert Bly * Not God: A History of Alcoholics Anonymous * John Waters & Dr Thomas Binder on The Abi Roberts Show * Episode #38: As Goes Ireland, So Goes the World
Connect With John Waters* John’s Substack * John’s Website
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Peter Cavelti is a financial advisor who shares a similar worldview as we do. He was one of the first investment managers to recognize some of the defining trends of our time, such as the ascent of emerging economies and the dramatic reversal of globalization. In this episode of UPThinking Finance™, we have a conversation about his career, his opinion on the US debt, and how he navigates financial planning with the future in mind.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn more about Peter Cavelti [3:23] * Peter’s thoughts on the Covid conversation [7:34] * The biggest challenge Peter’s had to overcome [13:36] * Is the US debt spiraling out of control? [19:32] * How Peter structures their investment portfolio [28:25] * Navigating the narrative within the industry [36:42]
Peter Cavelti is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Peter Cavelti* Subscribe to Peter’s newsletter at Cavelti & Associates, Ltd.
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Dr. Tess Lawrie is the Founder and Director of The Evidence-Based Medicine Consultancy (EBMC). She also sits on the steering committee for the World Council of Health, which sponsors The Better Way Conference. She is committed to improving the quality of healthcare through rigorous research.
She envisions a healthier world in which science and learned wisdom are brought together to empower people to take responsibility for their own health. That’s why she helped found the World Council for Health and The Great FreeSet. Learn what pushed Dr. Lawrie to take a stand—and what you can do to join the Great FreeSet—in this episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* When Dr. Lawrie worked as an external consultant [3:18] * The power of the World Health Organization (WHO) [10:33] * Learn about the Great FreeSet and its mission [16:22] * Why it's time to do some research [29:20] * The goal of The Better Way Conference [34:13]
Resources & People Mentioned* The Great FreeSet * The Better Way Conference * World Council for Health * The Conscience of Medicine * My Letter to Dr Andrew Hill Video * Dr. Lawre’s Speech at IICC Conference * Early Covid-19 Treatment Guidelines
Connect With Dr. Tess Lawrie* Dr. Lawrie’s Substack * Connect on LinkedIn * World Council for Health (WCH) on Twitter
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Wealth planning is an exercise in risk management. Our role as advisors is to manage risks for our clients. We place our clients and their goals first. That means that we do things differently than most. In this episode of UPThinking finance™, Amy and I will share why “This time is different” and how we operate, keeping our client’s best interests in mind.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Our backgrounds in the financial industry [2:41] * This time it’s different [9:12] * Risk definitions for today [13:01] * How do we proceed? [16:07] * We can’t rely on the past [23:25] * What we’re grateful for [27:35]
Amy LeNoble and Emerson Fersch are Registered Representatives with, and securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Asian Financial Crisis 1995–98 by Russell Napier * China, Saudi Drive BRICS’ Push to Erase Dollar in Global Economy * Top 10 Dow Jones Drops * 2008 Recession: What It Was and What Caused It * US Debt Clock * US Government Debt * Adaptive Asset Allocation
Connect with Emerson Fersch and Amy LeNoble* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Foresight is an act of thinking about and looking toward the future. Those who engage in foresight are working toward building the future, not just predicting what may happen. Today’s guest, John Smart, has a Master’s Degree in Future Studies and 22 years of experience as a Foresight Consultant. John’s mission is to help others achieve more adaptive futures for themselves, their teams, and their organizations. He shares more about the psychology of foresight and how it should influence the decision-making process in this episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* What is the practice of foresight? [3:13] * Thinking, Fast and Slow (dual-process thinking) [8:10] * The importance of dissecting knowns and unknowns [11:23] * How “Accelerating Change” affects decision-making [16:45] * Does God play a role in foresight? [23:07] * How John has impacted us personally and professionally [34:30] * Getting to the point where we flourish [38:03]
John Smart is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Introduction to Foresight * Thinking, Fast and Slow * Rethinking Positive Thinking * The Fearless Organization * Future Shock * Superforecasting * Mindset * The Righteous Mind * The Dragons of Eden * CliftonStrengths assessment
Connect With John Smart* Connect on LinkedIn * Foresight Development
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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For the last 400–500 years Western Powers controlled and dominated global trade and finance. Alex Krainer believes that the current empire is coming to an end. The world is shifting, both politically and economically. He also believes that these inevitable processes are leading us toward better things. It may seem that the world is falling apart but we might actually be working toward a better future. He shares his thoughts in this episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Alex’s thoughts on the world right now [2:57] * The two forces that can’t be defeated [16:29] * We need to stop fighting change [30:52] * How the movement in Europe impacts the US [37:17] * Alex’s message of unity and hope [46:44]
Connect With Alex Krainer* Connect on LinkedIn * Follow on Twitter * I-System Trend Following * The Naked Hedgie
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Almost every financial services firm does the same thing for people. They’re operating following same-old same-old principles. Why is it a problem? Firms are seeking ways to differentiate themselves but are doing so in external ways. Some are trying to leverage technology. Others are focusing on credentials that set them apart.
Measuring performance via benchmarks has been the most detrimental to today’s investors. Why do they matter? Your investments should be about your individual goals. We’ve been operating in a bubble in an artificially built-up market that is beginning to shift because interest rates are going up.
I can’t continue to operate and advise clients the same way I was five years ago. We must adapt. Mike Philbrick—the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global—shares why adaptive asset allocation is going to become increasingly important in this episode of UPThinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The state of the financial services industry [0:41] * How Mike landed in quantitative analysis [8:06] * The Tetlock study on “Expert Political Judgment” [9:25] * The problem with bench marketing [16:13] * Strategic vs tactical vs dynamic asset allocation [21:06] * The role of volatility and correlation in asset management [30:54] * The importance of dynamic portfolio management [37:10] * The point of return stacking and adaptive asset allocation [42:55] * What retirees should be thinking about [45:32]
Resources & People Mentioned* Adaptive Asset Allocation * Just 10 Stocks Drive Half The Year's Monster $2.5 Trillion Rally * The Tetlock study on “Expert Political Judgment” * Against the Gods by Peter L. Bernstein
Connect With Mike Philbrick* ReSolve Asset Management * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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In today’s interview, you’ll get to meet my business partner: Amy LeNoble. Amy always dreamed of becoming a professional dancer. She attended Loyola Marymount University to pursue her vision, graduating with a bachelor’s degree in dance (while minoring in business administration).
But Amy also developed a passion for finance. Over the last nine years, Amy grew from receptionist to administrative assistant to becoming a Licensed Registered Representative with LPL Financial, the largest independent brokerage in the United States.
Now, Amy is my partner at Capital Investment Advisers. She shares her journey and the value she strives to bring to our clients in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Amy’s dream to become a professional dancer [3:55] * Why Amy made a career shift from dance to finance [11:26] * Would Amy do anything differently? [14:53] * Diving into the world of finance [18:34] * Amy’s experience climbing the ladder in finance [23:29] * Amy’s strategy focuses on building relationships [28:43] * The changes coming to the Upthinking Finance™ podcast [37:33]
Amy LeNoble is a Registered Rep with securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Amy Lenoble* Capital Investment Advisers * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Christof Plothe, D.O. is a Dr. of Osteopathic Medicine who currently works as a naturopath in Germany. He’s authored and co-authored numerous books and studies.
He currently serves as a steering committee member of the World Council for Health, which is a global coalition of health-oriented organizations and civil society groups designed to inform people about health and human rights.
Christof seeks to bring humans back into cooperation with their environment to create a sustainable recovery of humans and the planet.
Christof shares his thoughts on many topics in this episode, prioritizing our need to advocate for our rights. He covers why what’s happening in the world isn’t just a conspiracy theory, but reality. What can we do to embrace a better way of living? Listen to this episode of UpThinking Finance™ to learn more.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Being raised under the “weight of fear” [2:56] * Christof’s thoughts on the European Union [6:30] * Why is the World Health Organization making policies? [11:31] * Why what’s happening isn’t just a “conspiracy theory” [13:00] * Is money enough for people to compromise integrity? [19:12] * The concept of a 15-minute city [24:05] * Is technology negatively impacting our bodies? [29:58]
Resources & People Mentioned* The effects of unregulated digitalization on health and democracy * Dr. Neal Barnard's Program for Reversing Diabetes * Association of Vitamin D Status and Other Clinical Characteristics With COVID-19 Test Results * Could diet and exercise reduce risk of COVID-19 syndemic?
Connect With Christof Plothe, D.O.* Christof’s website
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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In the early 1980s, John Waters—an Irish thinker, talker, and author—was a correspondent for Ireland’s “The Hot Press,” a Rock & Roll newspaper. He contributed reviews and interviews and wrote a regular radio review column.
He shifted the paper from rock and folk music to a wider engagement with politics and culture. He’s written several books, including his most recent, “Give Us Back the Back Roads.”
In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, John joins me to discuss what’s happening in Ireland and how it reflects on the greater world. From a loss of pride in one’s country to a shift in morality, we cover it all.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Notable transitions happening in Ireland [1:38] * The loss of pride in one’s country [7:27] * Covid led to connections [10:51] * A discussion of Philip Rieff’s three worlds [16:04] * Why are people so easily bought? [22:33] * Where is the world headed? [32:55]
John Waters is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Give Us Back the Back Roads * Trend Following with Alex Krainer * The Asian Financial Crisis with Russell Napier * The Wretched of the Earth * Black Skin, White Masks * The Collapse of Antiquity * Good Life Project podcast
Connect With John Waters* Johnwaters.substack.com * John’s Website
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Have you ever thought about the impact that gambling has on the global economy? Jeremy Olson, with Online United States Casinos, points out that casino gaming and sports betting are multi-billion-dollar industries. And each nation has its own laws about gambling and takes its own approach based on cultural preferences.
But what are the economics of gambling? Marty Goldman—the SVP of Global Casino Operations at Carnival Corporation—leads a team of 2,600 casino professionals internationally. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we have a conversation about the side of gambling most people don’t think about.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The history of the gaming industry [2:51] * What’s driving the expansion of gaming? [8:43] * The demographics gaming companies market to [10:41] * States where gambling isn’t legal [12:32] * Why sports betting has become a hot topic [15:45] * The positive impact of the gambling industry [18:32] * Is the gaming industry inherently bad? [23:31] * Security and compliance in gaming [26:33] * Cultural differences in the gaming industry [29:31] * What is the house advantage? [34:22] * Why include gambling on a cruise ship? [38:10] * Marty’s favorite gaming movie(s) [41:09]
Marty Goldman is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The HOPE Scholarship * California Split * Casino * Rounders * 21
Connect With Marty Goldman* Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Alex Sanchez grew up in an area where drug use, gangs, poverty, and racism were a part of everyday life. He lost his dad at the young age of two. He just wanted to be accepted, but society rejected him.
But the gang culture accepted him. He was constantly told he wasn’t going to amount to anything. He lived into what they said he would be.
His aggression fueled by the gang culture and drug addiction led to violence and inflicting pain on others. Ultimately, he landed a 10-year prison sentence. Underground Ministries directly changed his life.
Now, Alex works with Underground Ministries to help others reenter society. He shares his story of heartbreak and triumph in this moving episode of Upthinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn more about Alex’s background [3:05] * What changed the trajectory of Alex’s life [6:38] * Navigating reentry into society [12:35] * Alex’s experience hiking in the wilderness [17:56] * Working with Underground Ministries [21:38] * How your contributions support Underground Ministries [24:48] * What “love” means to me [29:06] * Open your mind before you judge others [30:12]
Alex Sanchez is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Episode #3: Interrupting Mass Incarceration with Chris Hoke * Underground Ministries
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Is the dollar going to spiral out of control before it fizzles out? Could Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) be the financial system of the not-too-distant future? What would be the long-term ramifications of CBDCs? Melissa Ciummei—an independent investor and researcher—joins me in this episode of Upthinking Finance™ to discuss the implications of CBDCs and the global move toward digitalization.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [1:56] * The long-term ramifications of CBDC [6:00] * Who is controlling the CBDC? [10:32] * Are there obstacles to the central bank agenda? [13:14] * Is this takeover actually going to happen? [18:48] * When Melissa began to notice the beginning of the end [22:48] * What can we do to prevent a global currency takeover? [29:35] * How we can cultivate more awareness of what’s going on [31:56] * Where is God in all of this? How can we remain hopeful? [35:53]
Melissa Ciummei is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The BIS * The IMF * The Better Way Conference * Russell Napier * WEF: Identity in a Digital World
Note about the BIS: The content on that page is Established in 1930, the BIS is owned by 63 central banks, representing countries from around the world that together account for about 95% of world GDP. Its head office is in Basel, Switzerland and it has two representative offices: in Hong Kong SAR and in Mexico City, as well as Innovation Hub Centres around the world. They are not independent if they are owned by the global central bank system.
Connect With Melissa Ciummei* Follow on Twitter
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Have you ever wondered whether or not a vaccination that you get every year is necessary? Have you questioned the logic of sticking our children with needles within days, weeks, and months after birth? Have you hit the realization that big pharma might not be helping us but simply trying to make a profit?
Leveraging her degrees in psychology and immunology, Deanna McCloud worked in the pharmaceutical industry for over 10 years in medical marketing and sales, specializing in oncology.
Deanna realized that big pharma was hijacking healthcare. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, she shares how everything big pharma does is driven by profit, including creating what we think are life-saving vaccines.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* When Deanna realized Big Pharma was hi-jacking healthcare [3:03] * How does Big Pharma market vaccines to the masses? [7:52] * How the Covid vaccine bypassed standard clinical testing [19:05] * Covid vaccinations led to the loss of informed choice [33:31] * The general reaction to the clinical data [43:08] * How to find more objective data/research [45:35]
Resources & People Mentioned* The Canadian Covid Care Alliance * World Council for Health * The Better Way Conference
Connect With Deanna McLeod* Kaleidoscope Strategic * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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What does the scripture about tithing really mean? Can we be in alignment with God if we embrace success and abundance? These are just a couple of the questions that Reverend Dale Allen Hoffman tackles in part II of “The Spiritual Side of Wealth.” (If you haven’t listened to part one, make sure to check it out).
Dale Allen Hoffman is a world-renowned author, actor, musician, performance artist, and professional speaker. He’s also the author of “Echoes of an Ancient Dream: Aramaic Toning on the Path of Light.”
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...
- Humility dictates your alignment with Christ [0:43]
- Success doesn’t have to consume you [7:43]
- Are you searching for the truth? [12:37]
- What tithing scripture really means [21:22]
Rev. Dale Allen Hoffman is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Dale Allen Hoffman* Rev Hoffman’s Website * Watch on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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How do you build the kingdom versus simply trying to build wealth? Today’s guest will help us navigate the dynamics of the spiritual side of wealth. Reverend Dale Allen Hoffman is a world-renowned author, actor, musician, performance artist, and professional speaker. He’s also the author of “Echoes of an Ancient Dream: Aramaic Toning on the Path of Light.” He shares his wisdom in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* You cannot serve both God and mammon [2:29] * Heaven, omnipresence, and treasure [13:36] * Is the love of money the root of all evil? [19:11] * The concept that God is everything [26:50] * Is it ethical to monetize spirituality? [35:19]
Reverend Dale Allen Hoffman is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Echoes of an Ancient Dream: Aramaic Toning on the Path of Light * Meeting Yeshua Again for the First Time by Marcus Borg * Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl
Connect With Dale Allen Hoffman* Rev Hoffman’s Website * Watch on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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I’ve been lifting weights since my early 20s. I’ve done everything from playing basketball to mixed martial arts. Recently, I found CrossFit. Running a gym as a whole is a difficult business to manage. Jason Jamison and his wife Tessa are co-owners of the CrossFit Modern gym in Long Beach, CA.
Jason played hockey when he was nine. He taught P90X classes for a while before experiencing a CrossFit workout. It was love at first sweat. He started teaching in a local park and opened his own gym in 2019.
He’s competed in 11 CrossFit open events. He’s reached the quarterfinals four times, the regionals twice, and just recently he competed in the Worldwide Rogue 1,000-pound challenge and finished 61st in the world.
In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Jason shares some of the struggles and triumphs he’s faced as a gym owner and what he’s learned on his journey of self-discovery that’s made a positive impact in all areas of his life.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* What is CrossFit? How is it different from a normal workout? [3:33] * Jason’s passion for movement drove the life of his business [7:57] * Why Jason decided to open a CrossFit gym [10:36] * The financial challenges faced running a gym [15:26] * Navigating gym ownership during the Covid pandemic [18:35] * Working through depression changed Jason’s outlook [25:00] * Finding one’s identity outside of what they do or have done [34:16] * CrossFit is built so that you can adapt and grow in every way [40:58]
Jason Jamison is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Jason Jamison* CrossFit Modern
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Behavioral finance emerged in the late 80s to address why people make the investment decisions they make. According to DALBAR, the S&P 500 averaged 9.5% in 2021 and the average investor only averaged a return of 3.6%. The question becomes, what happened to that extra 5.9% of gains? The role of emotion in making decisions when to buy and sell is saignificant.
Today’s guest is Paul Strehle, President and Senior Portfolio Manager at USA Mutual Advisors Inc. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Paul will share how to understand why people make decisions—and how to profit from them.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* How Paul got into qualitative analysis [2:54] * How Paul’s portfolio strategy works [11:36] * Accept small losses for the long-term wins [13:17] * The psychology of herd mentality [16:09] * Everyone trades on their own interests [25:39] * How people react to managed futures [30:46] * What drives Paul to choose the “hard road” [37:00]
Paul Strehle is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing * The Man Who Solved the Market * The Wisdom of Crowds * Market Wizards
Connect With Paul Strehle* USA Mutuals * Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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The Iditarod is a sled dog race that covers 1,000 miles of Alaska that happens every March (and just celebrated its 50th anniversary). Dallas Seavey is the youngest ever to run and win the race, accomplishing this at age 25. Now 36, he’s only the second Iditarod racer to win the race five times. In this episode of Upthining Finance™, Dallas brings us deep into the world of sled dog racing. He shares what managing the financial side looks like, how he leverages the tourism industry to fund his kennel, and his goals for the future.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* How an 18-year-old builds a sled dog team [2:13] * What changed after Dallas won his first race [6:53] * Managing the financial side of dog racing [10:31] * The challenges that come alongside success [14:46] * How sponsorship works in the mushing world [20:25] * Dallas’s experience on “Race to Survive: Alaska” [24:08] * Leveraging the tourism industry to fund mushing [26:22] * Dallas’s goals in both racing and business [33:13] * Finnmarksløpet: Europe’s dog-sled race [38:16] * Learn more about AK Sled Dog Tours [43:21]
How an 18-year-old builds a sled dog teamDallas has been mushing dogs his entire life. His grandfather started mushing dogs when his dad was only four. Dallas and his brothers grew up in the sport. He was always surrounded by 60–100 dogs. He was also the youngest person to ever race in and complete the Iditarod.
Most people start running for a kennel as interns trying to move up the ranks. They work with dogs around two years old, with the lead being older. When Dallas raced for the first time, the goal wasn’t to win—the goal was to build better sled dogs so they could come back as better athletes. They’d be rookies on the pro team the following year.
It was an educational experience and a lot of responsibility. He and his brothers learned how to manage an entire operation including managing staff, vehicles, equipment, and the dogs. If they broke down during the race, they couldn’t just call for help. They had to figure it out. They became self-sufficient quite young.
Dallas started his own kennel when he was 21. Dallas always looks at where his team is relative to the competition. He looks at where other mushers have gotten hung up. He studies why some racers have raced 20+ times and never won. He looks for room to improve. He focuses attention on the weakest points of his teams to continue to improve. People tend to avoid where they need to improve.
Managing the financial side of dog racingBut finances are also a large part of the sport. You have to be great business managers so they aren’t handicapped on the finance side. Financing affects the team in many ways, including the number of dogs they can maintain and train. If you have a larger group of dogs to choose from, you can develop better individual athletes.
For every 10 dogs, you need another human to develop and train those dogs. There’s a tremendous amount of work that goes into the physical development and individual needs of each dog. The infrastructure has to grow to correlate with the number of dogs. And there are a million financial things to consider, from equipment, to feed, supplements, and more.
Managing the financial aspects also includes sponsorships, tourism, public speaking, etc. If something has a positive return, you can’t turn it down. It can be a time strain. You have to love what you do to make this a career.
Dallas is training and managing people to create more than a one-man organization. His focus is creating systems that make success repeatable.
Leveraging the tourism industry to fund mushingTourism is Dallas’s primary source of funding for his operation. They offer three unique tour venues.
He owns over 100 acres where guests can mush their own team of dogs. The trails are designed for novice mushers to really experience what it’s like. Visitors can also tour where the dogs live, play, and train. They learn what the life of a sled dog looks like, all the way from being puppies to retirement.
In the summertime, they have two operations. One is where guests can take a helicopter to a glacier where there’s snow all summer long. Once there, they can take a tour with a dog team on snow. The scenery is breathtaking.
In Talkeetna, they’ve developed a four-wheeled bicycle that can be pulled by the dogs on a custom trail. It’s as similar to mushing in the snow as possible. It brings in funds with the added bonus of keeping the dogs mentally active and busy.
How do sponsorships work in the mushing world? What was it like racing the Finnmarksløpet (Europe’s dog-sled race)? Listen to learn more about the ins and outs of sled dog racing!
Dallas Seavey not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The Iditarod * Race to Survive: Alaska * Finnmarksløpet AS
Connect With Dallas Seavey* AK Sled Dog Tours
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Over the years we’ve been married, we’ve been blessed to have five cats and seven dogs. We rescued all but one of them. We adopted two of them from Shadow Husky Rescue—Hatchi and Storm. Today’s guest Tim McVicker—also known as Master Wolf ™—is the President of Shadow Husky Rescue, the #1 Husky Rescue in California.
Shadow Husky Rescue’s mission is to rescue Huskies and provide them with a second chance at living full lives. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Tim and Liz share more about their rescue, what the foster-to-adopt process is like, and what you can do to support them.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Why Tim chose to run a Husky rescue [3:23] * What’s special about the Husky breed? [5:28] * How do you start an animal rescue? [6:27] * The typical dog fostering and adoption process [8:34] * How they cover the costs associated with a dog rescue [16:07] * What happens when they get a phone call from a shelter [21:15] * Tim and Liz’s favorite dog rescue story [28:04] * How to learn more about Shadow Husky Rescue [31:37]
Connect With Tim and Elizabeth McVicker* www.shadowhuskyrescue.com * Shadow Husky Rescue on Instagram * Follow Shadow Husky Rescue on Facebook
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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The people I’ve interviewed are inspiring. They aren’t just in this field for financial gain but are passionate about what they do. One year ago I had my first interview with Alex Krainer. In honor of the anniversary of this podcast, Alex Krainer will join me again.
Alex is the founder of Krainer Analytics and the creator of I-System Trend Following. Alex is a former market analyst, Futures trader, and hedge fund manager. Alex also authors the daily “Trend Compass Report,” with both economic and political commentary.
In this episode, we talk about the large-scale developments happening in Eurasia, the significance of the Federal Reserve, and why we can remain hopeful about the future.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The shift in economic alliances in the East [4:24] * Why is there resistance? [10:28] * Where are things headed economically? [15:30] * The success of Germany's decentralized banking system [22:20] * The significance of the Federal Reserve [29:45] * Why we can remain hopeful about the future [37:38]
Alex Krainer is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Alex Krainer* Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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What do you know about gold? Why is it an asset that we see as valuable? Why are people drawn to it in times of uncertainty? Gold is often touted as a hedge against inflation. So is an investment in Gold worth it? Max Belmont—a Senior Research Analyst with First Eagle Management—joins me in this episode to cover all things AU 79.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* What drew Max Belmont to Gold/precious metals [2:13] * How do you manage a precious metal? [4:04] * What drives the profitability of a mining company? [9:54] * Factors to consider when investing in mine startups [17:09] * What happens to gold after it’s mined? [19:49] * Why would you want gold in your portfolio? [22:40] * The arguments for paper gold versus physical gold [30:07] * How to measure success as a gold portfolio manager [34:37] * Max shares his favorite mining research trip [36:37]
How do you manage a precious metal?Max’s job is researching gold mining entities. He reads quarterly and annual reports. He meets with management teams. He looks at earnings transcripts. He even goes and visits active mines. It is the pursuit to build a mosaic that validates or negates an investment thesis. Max focuses on understanding if a mining business is viable and what could go wrong.
Max shares that since gold was discovered, all of the gold that’s ever been mined and sits in above-ground stock (jewelry, in banks, etc.) amounts to approximately 210,000 metric tons. All of the gold that has ever been mined fits in a cube the size of a tennis court.
Gold doesn’t rust or tarnish. Gold is an asset that is dense and scarce. It’s always in limited supply. Gold is also becoming harder to mine. The gold industry is worth around 500 billion dollars.
What drives the profitability of a mining company?A gold miner cannot set the price of gold—the market sets it. The only thing that miners can do is work on their cost structure. A large part of their costs is on labor, consumables, and energy. The topline is impacted by how many ounces of gold the miner produces. That is a function of the throughput, the grade, and the recovery rate:
- Throughput: This is how much you can dig up. One million tons? Two million?
- The grade: What is the grade of the gold deposit? Some areas of a mine have a higher grade than others. It’s different in underground mines versus open pits.
- The recovery rate: Most mills can’t recover 100% of the gold; there is always a small loss that must be accounted for. If you were expecting one million ounces in a deposit, you might only recover 900,000.
These factors all play into the cashflow generation of a miner. Listen to find out what else can impact their cost structure.
Why would you want gold in your portfolio?Gold is a polarizing asset. People need to be educated on the investment class overall. Is it a commodity? Is it a currency? Is it just an element on the periodic table?
In the book, “The Golden Constant: The English and American Experience 1560-2007” by Roy Jastram, he looks at the purchasing power of gold versus a fixed basket of goods from 1560–2007 in England.
Throughout this time there were wars, currency devaluations, hyperinflationary environments, and more. After 1971, gold started trading freely. Throughout time, you could swap an ounce of gold for a certain amount of goods. Gold has always maintained its purchasing power.
Gold is a paradox. Why is it useful as an anchor to diversify your portfolio? It’s not a productive asset. It doesn’t generate a yield unless you invest in the mine. But Max argues that gold shouldn’t have a yield. You own gold or you don’t. It is a business that will last forever. In 1,000 years, one ounce of gold will still be the same ounce of gold—the same weight and purity. It’s still a tangible asset.
Gold can also be exchanged for any currency in the world. It is outside the financial system. It doesn’t fluctuate with the business cycle. If the economy is doing well, things like iron, oil, copper, etc. will fluctuate. But gold has very limited industrial use. Only 7–8% of gold is used in electronics and that number is steadily declining.
So what’s the difference between owning physical gold and paper gold? Learn more about this polarizing investment in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.
Max Belmont is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
Connect With Max Belmont* Connect on LinkedIn * First Eagle Investments
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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As humans, when should we be concerned about our impact on nature? I think there is an argument to be made for balance. I respect animals and their role on this earth. I believe they have souls and a purpose just like humans.
Today’s guest, Aaron Bott, is going to help us navigate the economic and ecological concerns of humans interacting with nature. Aaron is a Biologist and Doctorate Student at Utah State University studying wolves to promote human and carnivore coexistence. He is employed as a Regional Manager for the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Learn more about Aaron Bott and his role [2:34] * How Aaron became interested in wolves [6:30] * The conflict between wolf populations and ranchers [9:18] * Analyzing the benefit versus the cost of wolf populations [13:51] * Employing empathy for both wolves and ranchers [17:42] * The economic cost of eradicating wolves in the US [20:05] * How does humanity fit in with the equation? [23:11] * The economic barrier to coexistence with nature [25:47] * Humanity is starting to recognize change needs to happen [29:51] * Why we struggle to coexist with animals [32:33] * Why we can remain optimistic about coexistence [35:38]
How Aaron became interested in wolf behavior and wildlife managementAaron’s family moved to the West in the mid-1800s. As Mormon pioneers, they came straight from Europe and settled in Utah. They’ve been there for 175 years—over 6 generations. Aaron’s family has ranched, farmed, and built railroads. Aaron thought he’d farm but as he went to college, he realized he lived in an amazing ecosystem.
Wolves were reintroduced into Yellowstone when he was five. Growing up, they had many conflicts with bears. Aaron realized he wanted to work outdoors with large carnivores. His goal was to reduce conflict wherever possible. Humans need space and animals need space.
Now, Aaron is a researcher that studies wolf behavior and ecology while also working full-time in Wildlife management. The research he does helps him understand the real world. Management is where they create regulations to protect, preserve, and manage wildlife according to human needs and what’s best for the environment.
The conflict between wolf populations and ranchersAs Americans expanded westward, they brought their worldview with them. Because they practiced agriculture, they removed native herbivores from the landscape. Elk, bison, deer, etc. were removed so they could grow crops without interference.
When people settled the remaining west, there were far more carnivores. The herbivores were replaced with livestock. Predators killing livestock became a serious concern for ranchers and the government.
From 1915–36, the US effectively eradicated many carnivores, including grizzly bears, mountain lions, and wolves. Wolves used to live everywhere but they were systematically eradicated in almost all of the lower 48 states.
Society’s values began to change and we realized we were destroying the environment. In 1974, The Endangered Species Act was created and wolves were listed as an endangered species. So the United States began the work to preserve the habitat of wolves. Wolves were reintroduced into Yellowstone in the 1990s.
The economic cost of eradicating wolves in the USComplexities come from coexisting with large carnivores. But olves are important to helping the ecosystem function in a healthy way. If you have a predator on the landscape it influences how prey behaves and uses their resources. It creates a cascade of effects. We’ve removed a lot of predators and replaced them with domestic livestock that behaves differently than native species. They overeat the landscape which degrades the environment.
Now that we’re realizing this, ranchers are working to try and figure out how to re-wild the landscape. Because if your land fails, your cows can’t eat. If your cows can’t eat, your ranch fails, and you’re out of a job. Large carnivores balance the environment, which creates a healthier economy.
Humanity is starting to recognize change needs to happen Problems rise when we try to manipulate and alter the environment to our own advantage without considering the land and wildlife. We need to be good stewards of the land. We have to coexist with our own environment. If we’re not careful, we can break the system. We are meant to coexist but it takes innovative thinking.
When we develop natural lands as quickly as we are and urbanize wild lands, that’s where conflict comes to a head. Land development is the biggest economic hindrance. At what point do we say we need to protect more habitats?
What are we doing that isn’t working? What is damaging our environment? What can we do differently so every man and animal can profit? Listen to the whole episode for an interesting discussion about how nature impacts the economy in ways we don’t think of.
Aaron Bott is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* Yellowstone National Park
Connect With Aaron Bott* Aaron’s University Profile * Connect on LinkedIn * Follow on Instagram
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Tim & Stephany Mauer discovered the British Virgin Islands in 2000 while on a charter. The experience was intoxicating and changed the course of their lives. They made it their goal to buy a boat and spend their years sailing the Caribbean islands. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, they share how they made their dream a reality.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* The story behind how Tim and Stephany met [2:43] * How their dream to sail the world came to fruition [7:05] * The moment they realized they could make a living [18:54] * What it’s like spending their days in the Caribbean [21:20] * The moments that made them realize they made the right move [27:59] * What they’ve learned about themselves by taking a leap of faith [33:05] * They share why you shouldn’t wait to chase your dreams [36:49]
Learn how Tim and Stephany met Tim landed in the medical technology field after college. A friend that worked for World Sports Promotions called him up and asked him to ski for a promotion in Jackson, WY. Long story short, he took a leave of absence to do that job.
He skied, ran marketing promotions, and worked harder than ever. He constantly traveled and worked crazy hours. Tim thrived in this life and loved every minute of it. Eventually, he went to work for this company full-time, working his way up the ladder. The company continued expanding, hiring, and growing.
One of his colleagues asked him to interview a potential hire—Stephany. Tim ended up recommending her for the job. He was in awe of her. She had already traveled the world and was living the life he loved. Eventually, they started a relationship.
Tim booked a sailboat for a sunset cruise and proposed to Stephany over dinner. They had hundreds of ideas of how to get married. But they decided to go sailing with a crew and close friends. They constantly talked about that trip.
How their dream to sail the world came to fruitionTim had parted ways with his company and launched his own business with a friend. Their business continued to grow. Tim and Stephany spent all of their free time sailing and their interest in sailing full-time never faded.
They went to boat shows every year. They read boating magazines. They started telling people that their goal was to sail around the world. Then they created a 10-year plan to retire early and sail the world.
After a series of events, Tim exited his company and they started traveling Central and South America. They wanted to experience different cultures. They always found themselves by the water. They finally decided to buy their boat ahead of schedule and start living their dream.
They spent the first year learning the boat, exploring the islands, obtaining licenses, and learning to be jacks of all trades. They had to learn the roles of electrician, plumber, sailor, weatherman, navigator, bartender, host, and chef. They needed first responder, water rescue, and firefighting training.
What it’s like spending their days in the CaribbeanTim notes that there’s nothing like waking up in the morning, grabbing a cup of coffee, and walking out to see the beautiful bay you’re anchored in. You’re surrounded by beautiful beaches, lush jungles, and sparkling water.
They’re running luxury yachts with all of the creature comforts of home. They get to go to all of their favorite places. They can drop anchor and go explore.
Your office moves wherever you want to go. It’s a slower, more relaxed life.
There are some creature comforts that they miss. It takes time and planning to buy something and wait for it to get shipped to the island. They can’t just call an ambulance if there’s a medical emergency. There aren’t large grocery stores with aisles of food. But they’re always busy working, researching, fixing things, running errands, and enjoying life.
Why you shouldn’t wait to chase your dreamsStephany points out that you can’t be afraid of the unknown. You can’t let the “what-ifs” dictate every life choice you make. Fear stifles you. And every challenge they’ve faced they’ve overcome together, which builds their confidence. Everyone can do far more than they think they can.
They didn't want to wait until retirement to start their dream. You’re not guaranteed your future. Tim points out they’ve lost close friends and it’s devastating to think they planned for a future that never happened.
Who are you living your life for? If you have a dream, formulate a plan to make it happen earlier. Take a sabbatical and live your dream for a period of time. Take action toward reaching your dreams. Replace “I wish” in your vocabulary with “I will” and “I am.” Don’t “I wish” until it’s too late.
Tim & Stephany Mauer are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* The One for the Money podcast
Connect With Tim and Stephany Mauer* Sail the Endless Pleasure * Sailing Endless Pleasure on Instagram
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today’s guest is Charles Hughes Smith, who’s been writing about socioeconomic and technology trends since 2005 on his blog, “Of Two Minds.” His blog hosts over 4,000 pieces of original content. His work is also on Patreon and ZeroHedge.
Charles seeks to understand why our sociopolitical and economic systems are failing and lays out alternative ways to find a sustainable way of living. His work doesn’t fit into an ideological box and he believes that ideologies are obsolete and misleading.
Charles has written 16 books, the most recent entitled “Self-Reliance in the 21st Century.” His blog, “Of two minds” means that he is open to changing his views when presented with new knowledge. Secondly, the blog itself is the result of two minds—his and his global readership.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [4:28] Why Charles started his blog, “Of two minds” * [7:13] Will 2023 be just an average recession? * [11:53] Three signs that the tides are turning * [17:53] Inequality has been stretched too far * [19:43] Is a huge wake-up call coming? * [25:20] Each of our lives is a system and an enterprise * [31:55] What next steps should we take? * [38:17] The way that social change occurs
Will 2023 be just an average recession or will it be transformational?Charles wrote this article to cover two concepts: the mainstream idea that we will see a small recession and the small outlier camp that believes this will be something bigger. Charles points out that humanity sees great periods of socioeconomic and political change. In the 20th century, there was the Russian and Chinese revolution, World War II, The Civil Rights Movement, The Women’s Movement, and so much more.
Charles believes that we need a transformation because the system we have isn’t sustainable. We’ve had a long trend of everything stabilizing back to a bull market. In the last 20 years, we’ve seen hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization which accelerated trends, destabilizing the system. The tides are turning.
Three signs that the tides are turningWhat we are seeing and feeling isn’t aligning. We might see decay and renewal. We might have periods of flux that launch a renaissance. How can we deal with the unsustainability of the current system?
Problem #1: Energy is not forever. Energy is a limited resource and there are constraints and costs associated with every form. We’ve indulged in “easy” energy with hydrocarbons. That industry is so large it’s beyond comprehension. It’s an incredible system that we take for granted. Green energy systems have their own constraints. It’s not an easy problem to replace hydrocarbons and people are ignoring that.
With degrowth, a new model of growth and prosperity, we use less energy, materials, capital, labor, etc. When we use “more,” we contribute to what Charles calls the “landfill economy.” GDP is essentially measured by waste. Globalization has led to everything becoming disposable.
Problem #2: The quality of life, goods, and services is enormous and consequential. The decline in the quality of goods and services is a decline in well-being and a waste of irreplaceable resources that people take for granted.
Problem #3: The collapse of morality where anything goes as long as you make money. In a technocratic mindset, morality doesn’t count. The corruption that’s become pandemic has a consequence that people don’t measure.
The average person realizes the system is unfair. Humans are wired to be attuned to fairness. When things are systematically unfair, people get upset. They may not know why. A lot of the contention we see is because the system is rigged. The system is supposed to limit greed and corruption. But if the system can’t enforce that, the system will collapse from moral decay.
Inequality has been stretched too farSocial mobility has declined. In the past, anyone with a high school education, a willingness to work, and a willingness to sacrifice and save could buy a house. Anyone could do well for themselves, especially if they married into a two-income household.
Now, what’s expected of you to reach the upper middle class is beyond what most people can manage. So they give up. That’s why we see quiet quitting. We see inequality of opportunity. We are paying more and the super-rich are paying less.
Is a huge wake-up call coming?The dynamics that we’re discussing work from every scale—from the individual household to the global economy. Ralph Waldo Emerson talked about self-reliance in the sense of thinking for yourself and trusting your own intuition. You make your own way in life and avoid being conventional.
Now, we depend on corporations and the government to provide everything for us. Our solution to everything is buying something. You need skills that you learn from experiences and make connections with other productive people. That’s self-reliance.
In terms of finance, we look at risk and return. But Charles believes that’s how we should analyze life in general. Each of our lives is a system and an enterprise. We need to understand the risks and make calculated risks in exchange for a return. Human capital can’t be taken away. You carry your skills and your social connections. Trust and integrity are your core assets.
We invest in ourselves and our own intelligence, knowledge, and expertise—and those of our kids. You want a piece of land in a place that has rule of law. You need to be comfortable with the people around you with who you can work productively alongside. You need a shared vision and value system. You invest in things that benefit you and help you grow.
We need to broaden the scope of what is considered an investment away from things you can’t control. If you buy shares of a corporation, you only control selling it. That’s it. Control of your assets and investments is under-appreciated.
What next steps should we take? Listen to hear Charles’ interesting thoughts on the economy as we move forward in 2023.
Charles Hugh Smith is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Resources & People Mentioned* ZeroHedge
Connect With Charles Hugh Smith* Of Two Minds * Self-Reliance in the 21st Century
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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I received my first securities license 30 years ago. Over these years, I’ve been exposed to many investment options. I’ve never been drawn to taxable bonds as an investment option. In my opinion, they’ve never been a good hedge against inflation and just don’t make sense. You’re giving the government money without any idea what it will be used for and expecting them to pay you back.
But there is a sector of the bond market that has made sense to me for certain clients—the municipal bond market. Municipal bonds are issued by the state or local governments to build new roads, hospitals, schools, etc. You know exactly what the money will be used for. You also usually know how the money will get paid back. The interest from these bonds is exempt from Federal income tax—and depending on the state—state income tax.
Today’s guest, Jonathan Mondillo, is an expert in the municipal bond market. He’s the head of the North American Fixed Income Division at Abrdn Asset Management. He’s also responsible for the firm's municipal bond franchise and the Abrdn family of Municipal Bond Mutual Funds. We dive into a conversation about municipal bonds in this episode of Upthinking Finance!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [3:46] What drew Jonathan to the municipal bond sector * [5:17] The difference between treasury and municipal markets * [7:17] What does limited liquidity with bonds mean? * [9:18] What Jonathan looks for with individual securities * [14:22] Should insurance be a significant consideration? * [17:08] A conversation about municipality bankruptcies * [18:54] Navigating managed portfolios through the Great Recession * [23:40] Two things advisors look at in the treasury markets * [27:40] How politics influence municipal bonds * [29:20] The impact of choosing municipal bonds * [34:00] Are municipal bonds a separate asset class?
The difference between treasury and municipal marketsThe municipal market is always compared to the treasury market. It introduces a bit more credit risk relative to treasuries. There tends to be some liquidity (which you are compensated for) and they are typically tax-exempt securities. The coupon you receive in treasury markets is taxable at the Federal tax rate. Investors choose municipal securities over treasury securities for several reasons, such as additional yield and credit exposure.
What does limited liquidity mean?Over 50% of the marketplace is retail holders. They follow buy-and-hold strategies. When the market is going haywire and you need liquidity, it impacts your ability to sell the security. You have to wait for a retail holder to want to buy the security.
But the treasury market is full of global buyers—institutional, retail, and government. One of the benefits of municipals is that they’re less volatile than the treasury market. We’ve seen that as international buyers have stepped away from the treasury market.
What Jonathan looks for when choosing individual securitiesThere are distinct differences between municipal securities. A municipal bond is either a general obligation bond of a local municipality or a revenue-backed bond. If you’re looking at a general obligation bond, you start with both qualitative and quantitative factors.
At a high level, you want to look at the governing structure, how consistent they are at passing budgets on time, budget performance, and socioeconomic factors of the municipality (wealth, unemployment rates, and where the revenue mix comes from). There’s a host of qualitative factors.
When you shift to quantitative metrics, it has to do with budgets:
- What budgetary surplus have they run historically relative to the total budget?
- What does their balance sheet look like?
- What does the general fund balance look like relative to the overall budget?
When you look at balance sheet metrics, they’ve become highly important compared to income analysis.
Two things advisors look at in the treasury markets Advisors look at inflows and outflows. When they see treasury rates selling off and moving up, they tend to see outflows in municipal asset classes. Secondly, you can compare the yield on a municipal security relative to treasuries. Historically, anything inside of 20 years trades around 75% of a treasury yield. Municipal bonds may soften over the next couple of months as they catch up to the treasury market.
They spend more time looking at the yield of a municipal security relative to a corporate security, especially going into 2023. Jonathan notes that we’ll see earnings compression, upticks in defaults, and an economic slowdown. When you look at ratios of municipal debt versus corporate debt, there is a historical mean that they look for around 70%. Things are landing in that sweet spot right now.
Listen to the whole episode to learn more about the ins and outs of municipal bonds!
Jonathan Mondillo is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Jonathan Mondillo* Connect on LinkedIn
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Steve Knight has been in the aviation industry for 50 years. He holds an airline transport pilot certificate, a commercial pilot certificate, a flight engineer certificate, and a certified flight instructor certificate. He’s flown more than 22,000 hours on seven types of aircraft, all over the world. He’s been Chief Pilot, Director of Operations, Fleet Captain, and Standards Captain. He spent 39 years at United Airlines, flying the Boeing 777 and 747, before retiring. In this special episode of Upthinking Finance™, Steve Knight shares a view from the cockpit.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [2:21] The importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs) * [10:07] Steve’s experience(s) navigating problems outside the cockpit * [11:55] Why developing friendships with coworkers can be difficult * [13:05] Is a 40-year tenure with an airline common? * [14:28] When the government no longer subsidized air travel * [17:27] The impact of technology on aircraft * [21:10] How Steve reconciles technology with experience * [24:10] Two crash landings that changed the industry * [28:08] The most challenging airports for pilots * [33:23] Steve’s favorite views from the cockpit * [36:22] How Steve’s travel has changed his view of the world
The importance of standard operating procedures (SOPs)Aircraft live and die by standard operating procedures (SOPs). On any given day, you might be flying a long-haul international trip with three people you’ve never flown with before. You have rigid SOPs so everyone knows what to expect. SOPs cover everything from starting the engine, to taxiing, to take-off, to landing, and everything in between.
Before takeoff, the pilot usually addresses the passengers to share what to expect (how long the flight will be, the weather, and whether or not they expect any rough air). Typically, they have four pilots on the long haul flight from LA to Sydney that Steve ended his career flying. There are usually 15 flight attendants and 250–300 passengers. It’s a small city going to 35,000 feet, which is why procedures are of paramount importance.
The airline industry is always tweaking proceduresPilots who fly the 777 and 747 have to be certified every nine months to make sure they’re ready to fly. And every time you change the airplane you’re flying, you “go back to school” for about a month. The SOPs are the same, modified for the airplane you’re flying.
When Steve was hired at United in 1979, an airplane crashed in Oregon. The problem was a lack of crew communication. The industry realized they needed to do better, so they developed Cockpit Leadership Resource (CLR) which later became Crew Resource Management (CRM). It’s become an integral part of crew communication.
The impact of technology on aircraft Steve started flying when they still used analog instruments. He started with dials and gauges. Now, the cockpit is covered in computer screens. Pilots went from primarily flying an airplane to primarily managing an airplane. It’s a large safety improvement but a huge learning curve. Steve emphasized that pilots need to be able to fly both ways.
Since he started flying, they’ve implemented Traffic Collision Avoidance Systems (TCAVs) that will alert pilots if there’s a mid-air conflict. The computer not only tells them to descend or climb but the two airplanes can communicate with each other so one plane climbs while the other descends.
When Steve first started as a flight engineer, he manually tracked when the plane took off and landed. Now they have ACARS—Aircraft Communications, Addressing and Reporting System. So when you look at the app on your phone to see when your flight will land, that information is sent automatically.
How else has improving technology impacted the airline industry? Listen to find out!
Steve’s favorite views from the cockpitSteve has flown all over the world for the last three decades. On a route from Europe to the West Coast of the US, he’d often see the Northern Lights across Canada, which was incredibly beautiful. When the volcano in Iceland erupted in 2010, they could see the volcano erupting in the distance.
Steve was flying a charter of camera crews to the Beijing Olympics in 2008. He’d flown this many times, which usually went over the north pole and you come in over Mongolia into Beijing. The smog is typically so bad that you don’t see the airport until you’re half a mile away.
But Beijing was so concerned about the optics of hosting the Olympics that they shut down factories, didn’t let people drive their cars, and implemented other things to reduce the smog for the Olympics. So when Steve flew into Beijing on that trip, he could see the whole city from 50 miles away—a site to behold.
Don’t miss this episode for a fascinating glimpse into the world of aviation from the lens of a pilot!
Steve Knight is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Today’s guest, Rich Solomon, is an attorney, author, and public speaker that runs a local radio station in New York. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we build on last week’s episode with Sunil Dovedy and cover the practical aspects of starting a business. What are the common roadblocks? Why do partnerships seemingly always fail? How do you keep viable businesses alive? Rich shares how his “reality check” conversations with aspiring entrepreneurs help them build stronger businesses. Don’t miss this episode!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [1:48] Common roadblocks to starting a business * [6:43] The reason(s) partnerships rarely work out * [9:00] Facing challenges topples many businesses * [14:28] Rich’s “Reality check” conversations * [22:11] Adapt to keep viable businesses alive * [29:05] The dynamics of family-owned businesses * [35:25] People desire the personalization of business * [38:14] Learn all about Rich’s radio show
Common roadblocks to starting a businessAre you a solopreneur? Or will you be forming a partnership or working with a group of people? Someone’s answer to this question will change the entire dynamic of how a business works. As soon as multiple people are involved, there is inherent conflict. There is always an imbalance of work, money, and contributions. Everyone believes what they bring to the table is more important than someone else’s contribution.
You have to make sure that everyone has realistic expectations about the starting point and what happens moving forward. People have different perceptions of when they work, how much they work, etc. So the business dynamic is the #1 thing that needs to be nailed down.
Rich will also challenge the feasibility of their idea. What is the competition? How much market saturation is there? How many similar names are there? He’ll ask for their marketing plan, marketing budget, branding, differentiation, etc. Are they too niche or under-specialized? You have to flesh out the expectations.
Facing challenges topples many businessesLook at the businesses that didn’t survive Covid that were sound beforehand. Covid stressed their business model in ways they never thought of. Restaurants had to switch to takeout. Or they realized they were too labor intensive. Their business foundation was upended.
Regulation changes can also shake up businesses. Rich had a friend that was a private eye. But when his industry was forced to work under a private detective and get licensed, it killed it completely. When Covid hit, per diem lawyers were no longer needed and the industry was wiped out overnight.
These factors are stressors that bring out the worst in people. They move to firing people, buying cheaper products, cutting hours, etc. It impacts the quality, your branding, and your traffic. This causes a death spiral and friction between owners. If you were stranded on an island and asked to survive, would you be able to work together under stressful conditions?
You have to overcome jealousy, anger, laziness, cutting corners, and other things people do not want to face. It’s hard to be in business. It requires sacrifice. Many people aren’t prepared for that.
Rich’s “Reality check” conversationsRich will cross-examine people’s ideas to make sure they’ve done their research. He asks question after question to dive into their business plan and the steps they’ll take when things go awry. If he thinks someone’s business won’t work, he will tell them.
Because of this, he won’t charge them for their first consultation to avoid any bitterness. People tend to be dazed if he hits them with this news. But they’ll think things over, shift their idea(s), or rework their business plan.
Rich truly believes that if he simply rubber-stamps someone’s idea, he’s doing them a disservice. You have to run a pressure test in simulations, as opposed to real live businesses with people depending on the success. You will get a rough education and have to learn from it.
People desire the genuine personalization of businessPeople still hunger for human connection. You can start business relationships by building trust, awareness, and confidence. People go to the same stores and buy from the same restaurants because they’ve built a level of trust, comfort, familiarity, etc. Rich advises moving away from the impersonal nature of texting and email as much as you possibly can. Hearing the inflection of someone’s voice can make a huge difference.
Rich Solomon is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers.
Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC.
The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state.
Connect With Rich Solomon* The Solomon Channel
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
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Starting a business is both challenging and exciting. I cannot deny the hand of God in my work at Capital Investment Advisors. I’m surrounded by some of the best people I could collaborate with daily.
But a lot can go wrong when you run your own business. A lot can go wrong when you take an idea and create something that generates revenue and makes a difference in people’s lives. You can get to a point where everything is exactly how you want it—but you have to work to keep it there.
Today’s guest, Sunil Dovedy, is with a company that specializes in change management—the Adizes Institute. They strive to help companies create a healthy culture of collaborative leadership. He’s worked in fast-paced and innovative environments to drive organizations to superior levels of achievement. He shares how to navigate the challenges many businesses face in this episode of Upthinking Finance™.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [4:04] Learn more about Adizes Institute * [6:32] Applying life cycles to business * [15:38] Saving an organization past its prime * [19:39] The problems companies face with growth * [28:01] The dynamics of family businesses * [39:15] The heartfulness connection * [46:55] How to connect with Sunil Dovedy
Resources & People Mentioned* Breakthrough to Prime * The Myth of Capitalism * Small is Beautiful
Connect With Sunil Dovedy* Adizes Institute Worldwide * adizesinfo(at)adizes.com
Connect with Emerson Fersch* Capital Investment Advisers * On LinkedIn
Subscribe to Upthinking Finance
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One of the challenges financial planners face is figuring out how to determine an individual's risk tolerance and explain it to them. The challenge is helping clients understand what a downside looks like and feels like. It’s hard to prepare people for the ups and downs of the market.
In 2011, software was developed to more effectively communicate the declines in the market. That software is better known as Riskalyze. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Aaron Klein—the Co-Founder and CEO of Riskalyze—shares more about the company that invented the risk number to help quantify, explain, and define risk.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* [3:30] The origins of Riskalyze * [10:04] Aaron’s experience developing Riskalyze * [14:09] How Riskalyze helps financial advisors * [19:28] The Riskalyze stress test * [28:32] Can you misuse the tool? * [31:04] How I came across Riskalyze * [33:35] Using Riskalyze for portfolio research * [38:28] Riskalyze’s commitment to treating people well * [44:25] Aaron’s favorite thing about Riskalyze * [47:34] The important work Aaron is doing in Ethiopia
The origin story of RiskalyzeWhen Aaron was 12, he worked for his dad after school. It taught him a love for business. He learned that your customers are everything. If you take care of your clients, they’ll take good care of you. Secondly, all you have is your reputation. If you invest in your reputation for serving your clients, it will turn out well. Aaron also realized he wanted to be in a business that had better margins.
Aaron was running global product for a division of an options brokerage firm, building technology tools for traders. He’d always known he wanted to start his own company. He was talking to a friend who was a financial advisor about the fact that financial advisors didn’t have the tools to understand a client and match them with the right risk in their portfolio. They used words like “conservative,” “moderate,” and “aggressive” with no idea if the advisor and client were on the same page.
They had a mutual friend who had invented and patented a system for creating a mathematical function that represented risk tolerance (built on Kahneman's Prospect Theory). It was a three-hour-long process that resulted in a good outcome. They partnered together, raised some capital, and launched in 2011. Two years later, the product was brought out of beta testing and advisors could implement it.
What does Riskalyze do?Riskalyze is designed so that a financial advisor can tell their story. It’s a technology that helps determine how much risk a customer is comfortable with in their portfolio. It also helps measure the risks you need to take towards reaching your goals. It helps you see the risk you currently have in your portfolio. Once you understand those factors, you can answer how much risk you should have.
Riskalyze helps financial advisors simplify risk toleranceAaron points out that they didn’t invent the concept of getting clients to understand risk. There are two things financial advisors have been told to never address—risk and short-term. The challenge is that investors react to risk in the short term. Everyone understands on some level that when you invest in something, you run the risk of the value dropping.
A large part of their success is that Aaron’s co-founder is a financial advisor. He brought a unique perspective. But shaping the product was Aaron’s full-time job. He always approached it from a lens of, “How would I explain this to my dad? How would I explain this to my wife?”
They want Riskalyze to be the tool that financial advisors use to help their clients see and understand...
Today’s guest built a successful career and preserved her personal integrity working in a high-pressure industry where most people succumb to the demands of political correctness and upward mobility at all costs. Today’s guest is my wife, Darci Fersch. Darci has a B.S. (Bachelor of Science) in Administration of Justice and a Master’s Degree in Consciousness Studies. Darci has worked for a well-respected law firm based in New York, building her career in the San Francisco and Los Angeles branches of the firm. She was challenged to take risks no one was willing to take and enable attorneys to provide the best legal work for their clients. When our son was 10, she left the industry to focus on him. She was at the peak of her career and well-respected in the industry. Many were shocked that she walked away. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Darci shares why living a whole life made the transition easy. She also shares why doing what was right—not what was expected—defined her career. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:44] What Darci’s unique career trajectory was built on [9:52] How Darci knew the environment she’d be successful in [13:50] Why Darci believes standing out isn’t something to pursue [17:12] How Darci strives to live a life of integrity [23:31] Why your focus can’t always be the next job title [31:10] How to find success in the corporate world [33:41] Pursue what your heart wants and the rest will come
Why Darci chose to pursue a degree in Administration of JusticeDarci was always drawn to politics, the judicial system, and the law. While Darci originally wanted to be an attorney, she decided to focus on the business side of the legal field. She realized she would have more options to pursue other life interests on the administrative side. Darci has always strived to live a life where she can shift gears whenever she wants to. Darci worked to develop expertise so she could move into federal law because it is consistent across the US, which meant that she could be marketable across the country. She continued to acquire expertise that she could build on. How Darci knew the environment she’d be successful in Darci was recruited by a law firm to run some larger departments. It was a great opportunity and she learned a lot. However, something happened that made her realize it wasn’t the right fit. One night, she came home to multiple messages from a trial attorney, desperately looking for 30 + paralegals to help prepare for a trial—and they needed them the next day. Darci made some calls and by 2 am, she had everything set for the attorneys for the next day. She left them a message saying the 30 people they needed would be waiting in the conference room for them at 9 am. They were dumbfounded that she accomplished that for them. And she was shocked that they didn’t think she was capable of making it happen. She wanted to work somewhere where she was expected to give the best that she could give. Darci strives to live a whole life. Darci didn’t want to work in an environment where she stood out and got patted on the back. She wanted to be in an environment where she could be who she is. You can’t accomplish the best for a company when you’re too busy trying to stand out. When you do the best you can do and treat people fairly, you stand out the way you should. The greatest privilege in life is to be able to live who you are. There’s nothing wrong with achievements. But you don’t want to get to a point where you’re a person divided. Situations that challenged Darci to be a person of integrityDarci likes to be challenged. The New York-based firm recruited Darci back, but to their LA firm. The office was a mess. She was warned by friends and family to avoid that office because it could potentially ruin her career. But she knew the administrator and the firm, so she knew that she’d be allowed to do what she needed to fix the...
The political and socio-economical world is changing rapidly. What’s happening isn’t just a part of the normal cycle. So how do we adapt in these changing times? In this episode of UpThinking Finance™, Rodrigo Gordillo shares why low inflation isn’t normal, talks about the Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending, and his company’s concept of return stacking (and how it works). Rodrigo Gordillo is the Co-Founder, Managing Partner, and Portfolio Manager of ReSolve Asset Management. They launched ReSolve in 2015 using a quantitatively focused investment methodology that they began developing when they worked as portfolio managers at private wealth management firms. Learn more about his unique investing strategies in this episode! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[2:40] Learn more about Rodrigo Gordillo [7:33] How Rodrigo got into quantitative analysis [11:13] How Rodrigo connected with his co-founders [14:23] Why 40 years of low inflation isn’t normal [18:55] The Fed’s over-reliance on fiscal spending [23:56] Rodrigo’s concept of return stacking [46:00] Some of Rodrigo’s favorite resources
How Rodrigo’s formative years impacted his investment strategiesRodrigo was born and raised in Lima, Peru. He was lucky to be the son of a math professor and naval officer. His father made it far in the information technology space so he was sent to Monterrey, CA for further training. He used to joke that his job was to answer a question poorly that would otherwise be answered worse. When he left the Navy, he started a software development company. Because of this, Rodrigo was always surrounded by computers and information. In 1989, the President of Peru decided to default on IMF loans. Inflation soared 7,200% in six months. Whatever anyone had in savings went to zero—including his grandfather’s savings. The big winners were the debtors and the big losers were the savers. It was an impactful moment in Rodrigo’s life. It’s also why he makes sure any investments he works on account for periods of high inflation. How Rodrigo got into quantitative analysisRodrigo notes that quantitative analysis can be made simple. It’s a set of rules he and his team have coded to make sure they’re disciplined and executing religiously on their investment philosophy. He emphasizes that the philosophy is what’s important. In the late 80s, Harry Brown recommended that you have 25% of your money in cash, 25% in gold, 25% in equities for growth, and 25% in treasuries for bear markets. It’s an early version of how people think about portfolio balance today. You have to decide what balance means for each segment. Ultimately, Rodrigo seeks to create balance with diversity (global equities, bonds, and commodities in the portfolio) within regimes. You update the risk rather than dollar weights. It’s far better than a 60/40 portfolio. Markets are complex, and Rodrigo notes that you can’t conflate your lived experience with expertise. The experience has been 40 years of a low inflation market, persistent positive growth, and abundant liquidity. It is not common and it’s not the norm. You have to have the expertise to look at history and understand it. That’s how he and his team landed on return stacking. Rodrigo’s concept of return stackingWhen you have a diversified strategy, advisors are asking you to give space in the portfolio to zig when others zag. It creates a better risk-adjusted return. For every unit of risk you take, you’re given more units of return because they added diversity. It lowers volatility and smooths out the return streams over long periods. But from an absolute basis, your returns will be lower. In the last couple of years, a few innovative funds use derivatives to get additional exposure for every dollar you give them. PIMCO has a fund that invests in an active bond portfolio and uses the collateral to buy an S&P Futures contract that is 100%. So when you buy...
Kandee Anderson has worked for Marriott since December of 1988—34 years. How many people can say that? Her accomplishments are broad and deep. She started as a Sales Manager at a Residence Inn in Southern California. She worked her way up to a GM position at that property before moving into marketing and sales as a Regional Sales Director. Eventually, Kandee became the General Manager for several properties in Southern California. She’s the GM of the Irvine Marriott, located in Orange County. She’s led convention marketing strategies, won awards for customer service, received profitability recognition, and has facilitated leadership training within the company. Kandee has done it all. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™ Kandee shares how she advanced in the industry, talks about the challenges she faced along the way, and shares her thoughts on the future of the hotel industry. Don’t miss it! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[3:18] What drew Kandee to the hotel industry? [5:24] Finding balance in a demanding job [7:43] How Kandee advanced in the industry [12:53] Defining moments in Marriott’s history [17:41] The evolution of Marriott hotels [21:00] The challenges of the expansion process [24:15] How Covid has impacted the hotel industry [29:16] Kandee’s thoughts on the future of the industry [31:59] What Kandee is most proud of in her career [34:23] Kandee’s favorite hotel in the world
The evolution of Marriott hotelsMarriott was actually a food and beverage company for 30 years. It wasn’t until 1957 that J.W. Marriot purchased his first full-service “motor hotel.” It was very successful for them and they continued to diversify. In 1987, they purchased the brand Residence Inn. It was their first acquisition. Courtyard, Fairfield Inn, and Springhill suites were all built from within to cater to every possible customer. Their portfolio also includes full-service and luxury hotels, such as the Ritz-Carlton, the Renaissance brand, and many other international brands. The first international hotel was in Acapulco Mexico in 1975. They’ve grown this amazing machine with different brands. What challenges has the company faced during its extensive growth? Listen to learn more! How navigating Covid changed everything J.W. Marriott founded his hotels with the sole purpose of putting people first. His motto was “If you take care of your associates, they will take care of the customers.” Because of this belief, Marriott was one of the few companies that kept benefits for all of their employees during the Covid pandemic, even if they were furloughed. Now that the world is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, there’s a lot more leisure travel. But corporate travel is in flux. Companies are looking at different ways to do meetings. So from an occupancy standpoint, the leisure side is strong. All of the business realm has room to grow. How Kandee advanced in the industryKandee was the first female General Manager at her hotel. When she first started at Marriott, women couldn’t wear pants. They were treated differently. But she’s never been passed up for a promotion or been stopped because she was a woman. She’s broken through many barriers because of her grit and determination. She also had great mentors that encouraged her to keep pushing upward. She had always been fearless and confident, even as a young child. She is always the first person to raise her hand in meetings and is always part of the conversation. She wasn’t afraid to raise her voice and bring her knowledge and experience to the table. Kandee is proud to do something she loves while making a good living. She accomplished her financial goals in a way where she was happy and able to spend time with her family. She chased balance and a financially rewarding life. She did what she loved and didn’t pursue things that pulled her away...
Oil is a global commodity. When President Nixon took the United States off the Gold Standard, it created difficulty with global commodities. At that time, the major oil producers around the world agreed that oil would be priced in dollars globally (which led to the term “Petro-dollar”). When you link something to a currency, it can be inflationary or deflationary. We prefer the dollar to be strong, which makes the stuff we buy more affordable. Right now, the dollar is strong, but we aren’t seeing deflation. We are in an environment that isn’t following the “rules” of economic textbooks. So in this episode of Upthinking Finance, Chris Pusak—a Client Portfolio Manager at Cushing Asset Management—helps dissect the energy sector. We talk about both the local and global impact of oil production and distribution, why fracking won’t end, and weigh in on the various political and economic factors. Don’t miss this episode! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:39] Learn more about Cushing Asset Management [7:31] Why the energy sector plays a huge role in the economy [11:11] Dissecting the influence and impact of OPEC [13:16] The two common types of drilling for oil [17:46] How the green movement will impact the future of energy [25:36] Why the price of natural gas is immensely volatile [27:32] The political impact on the rising price of gas [32:13] Where is the energy industry headed?
The two common types of drilling for oilAt some point, Chris points out that the world will start to run out of oil. We may completely deplete oil from the planet. The Saudis do conventional drilling and draw from a pool from an underground oil reserve (it’s like sucking the oil out with a straw). The US mainly engages in hydraulic fracturing. Oil drilling was a risky business before this technique was developed. With hydraulic fracturing, you put the drill bit down two miles (10,000 feet) and then turn it sideways and drill out two miles. This allows you to “sweep” the area so you never miss. With hydraulic fracturing, you get the most production from a fractured well in the first 2–3 years, and then production declines quickly. Because of the way these wells work, you consistently have to drill new wells to keep production levels steady. It’s expensive and requires a lot of capital upfront. Oil companies are motivated to drill to maximize profits and that’s the simple reality. How the green movement will impact the future of energyThere is a transition taking place. However, the problem is that the green movement is trying to flip the switch too quickly. Many countries can’t meet the demand for green energy. Chris points out that only 3% of power today is generated from non-carbon fossil fuel sources. Because of this, banning fracking is impractical. Globally, oil is mainly a transportation fuel. Chris believes that there will be a day when oil is unimportant to the world. But Chris isn’t sure that will happen during our lifetimes. The case for fracking: natural gasNatural gas has greater longevity. Why? Because when you drill for natural gas, you get a dry gas (methane), which is converted to electricity. The US has reduced its carbon footprint by reducing power generation from coal to methane. Methane now contributes to 40% of power generation in the US. Wet gasses that are drilled include butane, propane, and methane. Butane is common in lighters. Propane is used as a source for heating and cooking. Methane gas is one of the main ingredients in plastics. Chris emphasizes that “If you ban fracking…you would send the price of all energy into the hypersphere, creating massive inflation and a global depression—as if we were living in 1875.” Recently, because of the pandemic and energy policies in Europe, the price of natural gas has skyrocketed from $2 to $60–$70 in Europe. It’s $9 for 1 million BTUs in the US. The...
Over 20% of Exxon Mobil stock is owned by Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. That means they have 20% of the voting rights. Starbucks is largely held by Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. Why is this important? https://www.weforum.org/partners/#search (These companies are some of the largest advocates )for the World Economic Forum (WEF) which forces compliance with the objectives and philosophy of Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG). It’s clearly not in our imagination that these companies control the stock of several publicly traded companies and can influence how they run their business. What do we make of this? How do we stand a chance? Today’s guest believes that the WEF is losing the battle. Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like Zerohedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine and Newsmax Media. He’s also the owner and publisher of the Gold, Goats, and Guns Newsletter and podcast. Tom shares why he believes the WEF—who he not so affectionately refers to as the “Davos” crowd—will not win the war in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[6:58] Who is the “enemy?” Who are we fighting against? [9:30] Why the Davos crowd is losing the battle [18:20] Why the world has underestimated Russia [24:54] The US Commercial Banking System holds the power [28:00] Why the Brits have always tried to control the US government [33:11] What should people pay attention to? Where are things headed? [39:29] Why we can’t be afraid to seek the truth and speak our minds
Why the Davos crowd is losing the battleThe Davos crowd made it easy to identify who the globalists were in 2016. Everyone was on board with the globalist plan to extract wealth from the world. The banking system went along with it. But that system broke in 2008 when Lehman Brothers went down. The dollar reserve standard broke. Davos wants a way to repudiate all the debt and all the broken promises of all the social safety nets that have been put in place for 75 years. Europe is broke. Their banks and governments are broke. The United States is broke. That was fine as long as there was a perpetuation of the banking system. The goal of the WEF is to do away with central banks. Then, they’ll institute a world government through the UN and let the International Monetary Fund (IMF) become the world bank. So when central banks go bust, only the IMF will have the capital to bail them out. But Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, etc. aren’t going to go along with this. This would cut them out. Tom realized there was a problem. He realized he was wrong. He started to embrace the argument that the dollar would strengthen and that Europe is actually the problem. The US Commercial Banking System holds the powerWho is the most powerful political lobby in the world? The US commercial banking interest. It’s centered around the big banks. They decide who gets elected. They control the purse strings for the military-industrial complex. They decide who gets the money. They won’t go gently into the good night. They may be corrupt. They may be corporatists. But they still believe the best way to generate wealth is through capitalism—not communism. At some point, everyone has to question where the world is headed. If Davos ends up in charge, they’ll make life unlivable for everyone. What should people pay attention to? Where are things headed?Tom says to Look for capital flight out of Europe. What would that look like in the US? A rising Dow and rising US Bond yields. Look at the difference between US and German bond spreads. When the market says it prefers US debt over German debt—that’s when all of Europe will collapse. Why? Because the German bond is the safe haven trade for...
Pastor Rodney Nichols learned at a young age that he was musically talented and was asked to direct the Pastor’s choir. But he knew God had a greater plan for him. In June of 2000, he accepted his calling to be a preacher. He became the Pastor of True Faith Holiness Church for four years. After he met his wife in 2008 and graduated from Bible College, they planted the Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship, where they serve today. Their mission statement is to “extend, equip, and deploy.” They extend the hand of God to the lost, equip those who are seeking with the teachings of God’s infallible word, and deploy those who they’ve equipped to build the kingdom of God on earth. Pastor Rodney’s motto is “If God is in control, then we won’t be out of control.” In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we talk about Pastor Rodney’s church, his ministry, “Midnight Soldiers,” and following God’s calling on his life. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:46] How you can feel God’s call on your life [7:22] Forming Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship [16:14] The mission and vision of Midnight Soldiers [18:33] The power of small churches to make a difference [24:29] What’s next for Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship
Learn about Garden of Praise Christian FellowshipPastor Rodney pastored a church in Los Angeles for six years when God shared that it was time to go back to his home church. He sat on the “sidelines” for five years. After he married his wife, God laid on his heart that it was time to start his own church. God strategically put things in place so that Pastor Rodney’s wife knew it was his hand guiding their steps. When they were doing the 501c3 paperwork, they met someone who completed the paperwork for free. God continued to strategically put people in place through the journey. Running a small church has always been a financial challenge but God continues to provide. Like many small churches, they rely on their church members to continue their mission. As a leader, he has to trust God and believe that the congregation is trusting God as well. Pastor Rodney emphasizes that “You have to do your part for God to do his part. Your only guarantee is your faith.” The mission and vision behind Midnight SoldiersGod woke Pastor Rodney up at midnight one night and gave him the name of the ministry—Midnight Soldiers—and told him what he needed to do. The goal of Midnight Soldier is to bring blessings to the homeless population in Los Angeles at midnight, a time when many people feel hopeless. God connected him with Pastor David at Oceangate who connected the church with the airport that supplied them with sandwiches, parfaits, salads, and more. One Friday night a month, Midnight Soldier hands out meals, hygiene kits, clothing, blankets, etc. to the homeless population on Skid Row. I had the opportunity to walk alongside Pastor Rodney numerous times. We’d show up singing gospel songs and march the streets handing out resources. We took the time to meet people and hear their stories. We prayed with them and offered emotional support. We might not have been able to change anyone’s circumstances but in that moment, people knew that someone cared about them and that there was hope. Small churches are powerful but face many challengesI believe that small churches have the ability to make a difference. Finances should never get in the way of that. Sadly, people don’t realize that finances hold many churches back from being able to do more in ministry. Many churches fold because they can’t meet their budgets. If money was no object, there would be highly successful ministries doing bigger things for the community. What’s next for Garden of Praise Christian Fellowship?Rodney’s goal is to grow the ministry over the next two years and plant another Garden of Praise location. His desire is to impact another neighborhood to feel the authentic love of who God...
How do you make financial decisions as a couple? In church environments, there tends to be the idea that one partner gets to decide how to spend the money and takes control of finances. While there may be a primary point person, it is a partnership. Couples should make decisions together. My wife has an exceptional eye for property and is skilled at negotiating. She defers to me with retirement planning. That’s the spirit of finances in marriage: you find each other’s strengths. Today’s guests are a young couple, Nick and Kelsey Burns. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we have a conversation about navigating finances as a young couple. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:42] Navigating job changes and finances in their early marriage [11:48] Laying the groundwork for the future of their finances [15:16] How Nick and Kelsey chose to switch gears [18:44] How culture influenced their decision-making process [23:28] What changed the trajectory of their lives? [27:29] The “What does our rich life look like?” discussion [31:11] The common thread/unified vision
Resources & People Mentionedhttps://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/ (I Will Teach You to Be Rich)
Connect with Emerson Ferschhttp://www.ciadvisers.com/ (Capital Investment Advisers) On https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 (LinkedIn)
Subscribe to https://pod.link/1613783168 (Upthinking Finance) Audio Production and Show Notes by - https://www.podcastfasttrack.com/ (PODCAST FAST TRACK) Resources & People Mentionedhttps://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.com/ (I Will Teach You to Be Rich)
Connect with Emerson Ferschhttp://www.ciadvisers.com/ (Capital Investment Advisers) On https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 (LinkedIn)
Subscribe to https://pod.link/1613783168 (Upthinking Finance)
Audio Production and Show Notes by - https://www.podcastfasttrack.com/ (PODCAST FAST TRACK)
When the United States moved off of the gold standard in 1971, it allowed the government to print as much money as it wanted. When gold was the standard, they could only issue as much money as they had gold or assets to back it. It affixed a value. We operate on a fiat money system now, which means the market forces dictate the value of the currency. Those values can be easily manipulated. A day of reckoning will be coming. Today’s guest is an expert on what's been called the “Great Reset.” Professor Michael Rectenwald is the author of 11 books, including titles such as “https://www.amazon.com/Thought-Criminal-Michael-Rectenwald/dp/1943003467 (Thought Criminal),” “https://www.amazon.com/Google-Archipelago-Digital-Simulation-Freedom-ebook/dp/B07W72YKGP/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1B5I4QXYAVN10&keywords=Google+Archipelago&qid=1657805181&s=books&sprefix=google+archipelago%2Cstripbooks%2C68&sr=1-1 (Google Archipelago),” and more. He was a professor at New York University for 11 years. He’s a champion of free speech against all forms of authoritarianism, totalitarianism, and political correctness. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we discuss what the great reset is and how it’s impacting the globe. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:26] What does the term “great reset” mean? [8:53] Are companies abusing their responsibilities to their shareholders? [11:55] Why “Environmental, Social, and Governance” (ESG) initiatives are problematic [16:52] How did we get to a point where we are $30 trillion in debt? [18:54] Why the stakeholder capitalism movement is an actual threat [23:11] Other organizations and institutions that are involved [26:16] When are we going to see a tipping point? Where will things end? [30:45] The impact the great reset will have on the market and society [33:36] What you can do to oppose the stakeholder capitalism movement
The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. Michael Rectenwald is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentionedhttps://usdebtclock.org/ (The US Debt Clock) https://www.unpri.org/ (Principles for Responsible Investment) https://www.weforum.org/partners/ (World Economic Forum partners)
Connect With Michael RectenwaldMichael’s https://www.michaelrectenwald.com/ (Website) Connect on https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-rectenwald-the/ (LinkedIn) Watch on https://www.youtube.com/TheAntiPCProf (YouTube)
Connect with Emerson Ferschhttp://www.ciadvisers.com/ (Capital Investment Advisers) On https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 (LinkedIn)
Subscribe to https://pod.link/1613783168 (Upthinking Finance)
“True wealth is the ability to spend your time the way you want to. That is the ultimate resource.” – Chris Weatherman It’s important to prepare for retirement so that outside factors won’t impact whether or not you have the retirement you’ve dreamt of. Financial independence and self-reliance are important. But according to Chris Weatherman, it’s also important to prepare your life for the unexpected. Chris—known as the “Angery American”—is the author of a series called “The Survivalists,” consisting of 11 books (two of which landed on the bestseller list of USA Today). Chris has been a “prepper” since the 1990s, teaching primitive skills and modern survival tactics. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we dispel some myths about “preppers,” talk about why it’s important, and share some tips and strategies to help you get started. Don’t miss this unique episode! You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[4:38] Chris dispels the myths surrounding “preppers” [6:51] Why the average person avoids thinking about these issues [10:22] If you’ve never thought about prepping, where do you start? [16:25] Why you always need to plan for the unexpected [19:40] Can swimming pools be a good investment? [22:18] Where does community fit into preparation? [24:17] The inspiration behind Chris’s book series [30:42] Chris’s outlook on the future in the United States [35:07] Stay aware of what’s happening in the world
Chris dispels the myths surrounding “preppers” Covid has clearly demonstrated that just-in-time inventory systems don’t function. Society is fragile. Preppers are people that don’t implicitly trust the system and take responsibility for their own welfare. They don’t believe in “normalcy bias,” i.e. “Nothing bad happened yesterday so nothing bad will happen tomorrow.” Chris is prepping to live. He prepares food, medical, energy, security, communications, etc. He’s not preparing for the “end of the world,” the common misconception attributed to preppers. Instead, he’s preparing for the end of his world, which could mean an illness, job loss, a hurricane that knocks out power, etc. You have car insurance, homeowners insurance, and medical insurance—why not ensure the continuity of your life? That’s what prepping is. Whether it’s a car accident, fire, a natural disaster, or a crime being committed against you, Chris emphasizes that “You are your own first responder.” Chris got into prepping because he didn’t want to be “that guy” standing in line waiting for help. If he can take care of himself, resources can go to someone who does need them. Hurricanes are common in Florida, and life after a hurricane can be rough. The power can be out for weeks at a time and things are hard to find. So Chris plans ahead with fuel storage, food, generators, and solar power that’s 100% off-grid. If you’ve never thought about prepping, where do you start?When you get groceries, just buy a few extra cans of things your family already eats and likes (think rice, beans, pasta, and anything canned). Once you have a 30-day-supply, continue buying those things by rotating out and using the older things. Secondly, avoid things that don’t have a long shelf life. If you live somewhere that deals with water shortages, what do you do? You still have to maintain hygiene, have enough to drink, and have enough to cook. If you don’t have water, you’ll have to leave where you are and go to water or you’ll die. If you drink soda and buy two-liter bottles, rinse them out, clean them, and refill them with water. The hot water heater in your house can be drained and used for bathing and whatever else you might need in an emergency. Stock up on at least one month’s worth of food, medicine, water, and basic hygiene supplies. Once you’ve achieved the month and you feel comfortable, great. If not, shoot for stocking up for 90 days. Where does
Chris Pelczynski is a seasoned creative director, designer, and illustrator who spent most of his career in leadership at ESPN. Since starting his career as a graphic designer in the 1990s, he’s worked for companies of all sizes. His most notable roles were working with ESPN where he led the creative process for some of the world’s largest broadcast brands, such as Monday Night Football, Sports Center, and Baseball Tonight. He’s won two sports Emmy’s and 9 Promax awards. But after 17 years at ESPN, Chris decided to walk away from corporate life to launch Krispy Kreative. He now serves a wide variety of clients, including those in the broadcast world, film, music, finance, food service, and sports. He’s also the creative force behind our branding at Capital Investment Advisors and did the graphic design work for this podcast. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, Chris shares the challenges and joys of moving from the corporate world to entrepreneurship. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:17] Chris’s experience at ESPN [12:18] Why Chris ultimately left ESPN [16:04] Chris’s transition to Krispy Kreative [25:13] Learning how to run a business [36:36] When Chris knew things were going to work
Chris Pelczynski and Krispy Kreative are not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. Resources & People Mentionedhttps://www.espn.com/ (ESPN)
Connect With Chris Pelczynskihttps://www.krispykreative.com/design (Krispy Kreative) Connect on https://www.linkedin.com/in/krispykreative/ (LinkedIn)
Connect with Emerson Ferschhttp://www.ciadvisers.com/ (Capital Investment Advisers) On https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 (LinkedIn)
Subscribe to https://pod.link/1613783168 (Upthinking Finance) Audio Production and Show Notes by - https://www.podcastfasttrack.com/ (PODCAST FAST TRACK)
Russell Napier is the author of The Solid Ground Newsletter. He began writing the global macro-strategy report in 1995 for CLSA, a capital markets and investment group based in Hong Kong. He forecast what was to become the Asian Economic Crisis and was voted Asia’s #1 equity strategist in all of the leading polls at the time. His forecasts were compiled in a book he published last summer, “The Asian Financial Crisis of 1995–1998: Birth of the Age of Death.” The world is living through a breakdown in the global monetary system. He has advised clients to invest for the outcome versus just living in another business cycle expansion. That’s why I subscribe to his newsletter and value his views. He isn’t afraid to stand for what he believes in. Learn more about his book in this episode of Upthinking Finance™. Russell Napier is not affiliated with or endorsed by LPL Financial or Capital Investment Advisers. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the states in which they are properly registered or licensed. No offers may be made or accepted from any resident of any other state. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[5:50] Why Russell decided to dissect his analysis in his book [8:22] What it’s like to be the guy with the unpopular opinion [11:11] How to understand what was happening in Asia [14:22] Why it’s important to understand the underlying conflict [17:14] The importance of studying financial history [20:08] Where the Asian Financial Crisis originated [22:49] What Russell didn’t see coming in his forecasting [25:48] What is the idea of “The birth of debt?” [31:00] Monetary systems follow a circular trend [33:33] How you would benefit from reading Russell’s book [36:56] The currency board system in Argentina [41:33] What’s happening next in Russell’s world
Connect With Russell Napierhttps://www.libraryofmistakes.com/ (Library of Mistakes) https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Lessons-Streets-bottoms/dp/1906659354 (Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's four great bottoms) https://www.amazon.co.uk/Asian-Financial-Crisis-1995-98-Birth/dp/0857199145 (The Asian Financial Crisis 1995–98: Birth of the Age of Debt) https://russellnapier.co.uk/ (The Solid Ground Newsletter) Connect with Russell on https://www.linkedin.com/in/russell-napier-81292846/?originalSubdomain=uk (LinkedIn)
Connect with Emerson Ferschhttp://www.ciadvisers.com/ (Capital Investment Advisers) On https://www.linkedin.com/in/emerson-fersch-50128b21 (LinkedIn)
Subscribe to https://pod.link/1613783168 (Upthinking Finance) Audio Production and Show Notes by - https://www.podcastfasttrack.com/ (PODCAST FAST TRACK)
Gina DiMaggio has always loved color. From the moment she could pick up a crayon, she drew rainbows. She was also drawn to black and white images because they were full of contrast. She learned to associate color with the contrast in the images and used them to illuminate the light. What’s born is truly striking vibrant images—and a thriving business born out of a passion for color. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, we discuss what it’s like to be an artist and run a business. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...[0:58] How Gina transitioned from nursing to art [5:14] Why she named her business the “Color of Ashes” [8:21] Gina’s unique use of color in her artwork [11:58] How Gina chooses to value her work [19:02] How Color of Ashes has gained traction [22:16] The challenges Gina has faced [24:56] Gina shares the meaning behind “Black Sheep” [28:02] How “The Waiting” reflects Gina’s transformation [30:31] Gina’s custom painting of a beautiful black lab “Ingrim” [32:30] The beautiful piece that we commissioned from Gina [34:50] Learn about Gina’s band “Gina and the Wildfire”
Why Gina named her business the “Color of Ashes”Gina’s brother, Nino, passed away in a car accident at the young age of 18. She was just 14 at the time. She notes that when you experience tragedy that young, it changes your outlook on life. She saw life as a privilege—not a guarantee. She wanted to make sure she lived her life in a way that felt worth it, in honor of her brother. So when Gina started her business, she made sure it was something she was passionate about. Art felt like a representation of her spirit. When she named it “Color of Ashes'' she saw an image of ash falling. After everything is covered in gray ash and you sweep it away, there’s still beautiful color and life underneath. The ash falling represents life and how terrible things happen. Everyone experiences pain, loss, and hurt. But through that, we discover something beautiful on the horizon. How Gina chooses to value her workGina emphasizes that artwork is subjective. Artists price their pieces based on their value as an artist and what the piece turns out to be. What an artist creates is personal. It’s not mass-produced—it’s one unique piece. When Gina prices a piece, she thinks about how much of her time was consumed and how much she loves it. Gina set a goal to paint 24 original pieces this year. That being said, to be successful, she can only produce so much. So artwork must be valued at a level where she’s able to let it go. She loves each painting and wants them to be in a home where they’re appreciated. Everyone decorates their homes in a way that brings them peace. Your home should be a place where you feel like it represents what you love. Someone who buys a piece has to love it—they don’t buy it because it’s a “good deal.” They buy it because they place as much value on it as Gina does. The challenges Gina has facedGina went through a divorce two years ago. At the time, she was a stay-at-home mom who was painting as a hobby. During the process, her husband said “Have fun in the real world,” fully expecting that she’d be forced to return to her previous job as a nurse. The truth was that she wasn’t making enough to live off of. But his words lit a fire underneath her. So she started producing more and more art. She had to make it on her own. She took a leap of faith and continued pursuing her passion and it worked in her favor. Gina’s story is one of perseverance and passion. Listen to the whole episode to learn more about her colorful art and the role that mindset plays in pursuing your passion. Securities and Advisory services offered through LPL Financial. A registered investment advisor. Member FINRA & SIPC. The financial professionals associated with LPL Financial may discuss and/or transact business only with residents of the...
When people make small mistakes and deviations with their retirement portfolio, we can work through it. But there’s a BIG mistake that people make that not only destroys their financial future but also makes a generational impact. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™ I’ll share some stories about mistakes I’ve observed over the years. What’s the common thread? The role of emotion. Listen now to learn how to avoid these big mistakes. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why you don’t want your investments over-concentrated [2:47] Avoid excessive concentrations of stock from an employer [9:07] The role of fear in challenging markets [14:25] Why you can’t sell when you’re facing your deepest fears [19:07] Prepare by diversifying and building an actively managed investment plan [24:12]
Why you don’t want your investments over-concentratedOver-concentration typically occurs because clients either work for companies and get compensated with stock options OR inherit stock from someone who passed away. I met an individual in 2006 who had inherited some stock from a parent. We were just emerging from the tech bubble. This individual’s portfolio included well over 12,000 shares of Bank of America stock, valued at around $650,000. It also paid a dividend of over $30,000 a year. So there were financial reasons to want to keep the stock but the sentimental value was strong. Anything that holds sentimental value is a tough hurdle for a financial advisor to overcome—and likely why I didn’t succeed in this situation. I recommended divesting a majority of the stock and only keeping a couple of hundred shares. Why? Because it was 60% of his net worth—a large chunk. The plan was to reinvest and diversify his portfolio to reduce his concentration risk and bump up his income. But this individual held fast to his emotional connection and chose not to diversify. Two years later, the value of the stock dropped 90%. The $650,000 value tanked to $60,000. Even worse, the dividend per share dropped from $2.52 a share to $0.04. His $30,000 income became $500 a year. Every positive that existed vanished. 13 years later, the value of this stock isn’t back to where it was. It’s hard to insert logic into emotional situations. If you find yourself in this situation, you have to detach yourself from the sentiment. Avoid excessive concentrations of stock from an employerI was glad to see the dot-com era come and go. I had clients who expressed dissatisfaction with 25% returns when they thought they could have achieved 30–40%. One guy laughed at me when I told him he needed to diversify. People thought this era would never end. At the time, NASDAQ had “pink sheets” for companies that weren’t big enough to be traded publicly (often referred to as penny stocks). I would get calls from people wanting to invest in companies that weren’t even on the pink sheets. Everyone was looking to invest in the next Microsoft. I had a meeting with a client who worked for a company called Conexant, a spinoff of Rockwell International. Their stock price had gone up to over $130 in March of 2000. This gal had $1 million worth of stock options. I advised her to sell the majority of it and diversify her portfolio and retire successfully. But she was attached to the company. What happened? As you can guess, in August 2020 the price fell below $30 and two private equity firms eventually bought the company at $2.40 per share. They filed for bankruptcy in 2013. Loyalty to any company—even one you work for—is a problem. Why? Corporate America isn’t loyal to anyone. The role of fear in challenging marketsI learned that you need logic to offset fear. The logical anchor in a financial situation is a plan. You need a plan that is constantly and regularly reviewed. If an anchor isn’t in place, once the wind shifts, the ship is blown off course—and may even sink. The Great...
In 1995, I started my investment firm, Capital Investment Advisers. I left a job where I had a consistent client base, a good salary, employee benefits, and the hope that I would move up the corporate ladder. But I felt I could do a better job. Lindsay Metcalf holds the same belief. Lindsay is the sole owner of HomeConnect, a company created to eliminate the concerns experienced by homeowners who have to leave their homes vacant for extended periods of time. In this episode of Upthinking Finance™, I chat with Lindsay about the leap of faith she took when she decided to buy HomeConnect, the challenges she’s faced as a business owner, and why she’s passionate about her job. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Why Lindsay took a leap of faith and purchased HomeConnect [3:03] Make sure you’re in the position to take on risk [12:08] The challenges of running your own business [15:24] How Lindsay has gained trust in a virtual world [19:55] Why Lindsay is a passionate patriot [23:32] The personal growth Lindsay has experienced [27:40] Lindsay’s long-term plan for HomeConnect [31:33]
How Lindsay took a leap of faithA luxury realtor in Bozeman, MT invented HomeConnect after numerous clients asked her to manage their properties while they were away. She hired Lindsay away from the bank she worked at, and Lindsay became a subcontractor of HomeConnect. HomeConnect is a service tailored to the needs of each client, offering things like weekly or monthly home check visits. They can also coordinate deliveries, schedule maintenance services, arrange housekeeping and even arrange airport transportation for homeowners. Lindsay left a bank job with great benefits and reliable pay. She jokes that you don’t realize the importance of creature comforts like having an office and a desk until they're gone. After sharing her concerns, the owner provided her with an office space and a desk and did everything to accommodate Lindsay’s discomfort. But Lindsay never went there. Now, she admits that she could never return to a structured 9–5 in an office. She overcame the fears she faced and started building a thriving business. Keep listening to learn more about it. Make sure you’re in the position to take on riskLindsay notes that her husband has always had a big-picture view of their finances. He set them up so they don’t have credit card debt or a mortgage. They don’t buy things unless they have the money on-hand. When the opportunity to purchase HomeConnect came along, they were in a good financial position to take on that debt. Lindsay emphasizes that you have to live within your means, even when it’s not sexy. It’s what allowed them to buy HomeConnect. My wife and I have always worked to live on one income (despite having two). We wanted to make sure we had flexibility so when we decided to have kids, one of us was always able to be with our child. The challenges of running your own business Lindsay works with clients from around the world. Some have strong ties in Bozeman, others just landed there because it’s an area they love. Some clients come to Bozeman for a white Christmas or a two-week retreat in the Summer. She manages everything from a penthouse condo to a six-million-dollar home on 30 acres. The program is completely tailored to each client. Most of her clients live a lifestyle that she doesn’t. She doesn’t own a vacation home or have the disposable income that they do. Lindsay notes that she has to remove her own feelings and beliefs and make it about what matters to her clients. She helps them adjust to the different lifestyle (i.e. the lack of a local UberEats presence) whenever she can. Lindsay is candid, genuine, and truly cares about her clients. How does she build trust with her clients in a virtual world? What personal growth has Lindsay experienced in her role as a business owner?...
In my role as a CFP, I’ve been introduced to some awesome people and organizations across the country and the world. Today’s guest, Pastor Chris Hoke, is one of those people. Chris is the co-founder of Underground Ministries, which serves to mobilize faith communities and businesses in the Pacific Northwest by connecting them to men and women being released from prison. This movement takes faith organizations and connects them with an individual that’s being released from prison. It helps them build a network outside of the prison system, which can help them overcome the significant barriers to reentry into society. It brings churches back to the primary purpose: to serve as places of healing and personal resurrection. In this episode of Upthinking Finance, Chris shares how he became a gang pastor, the challenges Underground Ministries faces, and how to approach charitable giving through a new lens. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...How Chris got involved working in the prison system [4:35] God is in the resurrection business—not the disposal business [8:44] Balancing the administrative side of a non-profit with the mission [13:38] How to approach charitable giving with a different lens [16:53] The challenges of Underground Ministries’ One Parish || One Prisoner [23:13] Overcoming the fear of working with the incarcerated [27:52] Jesus had a mission and never backed down from it—why can’t we? [37:24] Invest in what you want to see heal the world [41:04] Where to learn more about Underground Ministries [44:07]
How Chris got involved working in the prison systemChris grew up in a home where he was in church three times a week. The only story that made sense to him was doing the “Jesus stuff.” Chris wound up in the PNW working with theologians among undocumented migrant workers picking cucumbers and strawberries in fields. He found himself engaging in theological study in a small jail. There were young men Chris’s age who were funny, open about their anger, and asked brilliant questions. They just happened to be in prison. He’d talk until late into the night, interacting with men he’d never been exposed to in church. These men had lived through incredible abuse and unspeakable traumas. But when they were released from prison, they’d end up in the streets, lost in homelessness, addiction, and gang violence. Or, they’d end up back in prison. That’s where Chris’s work began. He became their pastor. He knew that needed to find a way to help these men (and women) transition back into society. God is in the resurrection business—not the disposal businessAmerica has a problem with mass incarceration, 8x as much as the second or third place incarceration per capita in the developed world. America embraces a culture of disposability. We don’t fix broken things, we throw them away. Chris points out that we treat humans like garbage. It's easier to throw away a broken person into the landfill system. Prisons are a human dumpster. He shares that there are amazing human beings in prisons. “[Prison] is an incredible waste of humanity yet it's an incredible discovery of new friends and the magic of healing and the discovery that God is in the healing business.” How to approach charitable giving with a different lensChris often finds himself surprised when he speaks with people in churches or at conferences and they share their “giving philosophy” with him. It’s usually something like “We don’t like to create dependence so we only give in cycles once every few years.” Chris finds this appalling. It’s not how relationships work. It’s certainly not how good investing works. If everyone gave based on that philosophy, every non-profit would have to double their overhead to constantly try and develop new relationships and donors versus building on existing relationships. Giving every few years
Today I want to share a risk that many people aren’t aware of as they approach retirement: sequence of returns risk. When you retire, there’s no way to predict what the market is going to look like. You’ve planned to withdraw from your retirement portfolio to fund your retirement. But what happens when you have to make withdrawals in a down market? How will it impact your portfolio? How will it impact your retirement? In this episode of UpThinking Finance, I’ll talk about the different variables at play, what sequence of returns risk is, and how we can preserve your portfolio from varying returns. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...The variables that impact preparation for retirement [1:00] Dividends and capital spend-down plans [1:52] What is sequence of returns risk? [4:13] A series of 20-year returns from 1989–2008 [5:04] How to preserve against varying returns [8:41] Properly positioning yourself in retirement [16:39]
Dividends and capital spend-down plansLet’s say someone’s goal is to withdraw $10,000 a month to cover their expenses in retirement. How do we help them work toward that goal? First, we add up fixed income sources such as social security, pensions, or rental income. Let’s say these total $5,000 a month. What’s next? There are two ways to approach supplementing that additional income. The first is through dividends. You can build a portfolio around investments that generate a monthly or quarterly distribution check, such as a municipal bond portfolio. If we need another $5,000 a month, the portfolio needs to generate $60,000 a year in dividend income. The second strategy is a capital spend-down plan. We systematically sell shares or principal from the portfolio and it eventually depletes to zero. This is the route that most people take. Very few clients can rely on fixed income and dividends alone. If you draw 4% of your portfolio, you should be able to average a 4% gain and offset your spending. But this comes with risk. Demonstrating sequence of returns riskWhat kind of returns is the market providing as we’re liquidating a portfolio? We might have a general idea of what the market will do, but we can’t predict it, right? The variance compression principle states that the longer you go into an investment cycle the less variable the returns will be year to year. The reality is that it’s unpredictable. If we don’t plan for sequence of returns risk, it will derail your retirement. In this episode, I’m looking at a series of 20-year returns from 1989 to 2008. We’ve also inverted the order of the returns to start in 2008. Why’d we invert it? The market was up 31.69% in 1989. But when you invert the returns, we see that 2008 was down 37%. This will show us how a retirement portfolio fares starting with a bad year or a good year. Let’s say we start with $1 million, are invested in the S&P 500, and draw out $50,000 a year (including the 3% annual inflation adjustment). After 1989, the portfolio’s ending balance was $1,266,900. But when we look at the returns starting in 2008, the portfolio was down to $580,000. That account lost half its value between the market and the drawdown in the first year. Making that up would require the portfolio to have a 100% gain. That’s not only near impossible but it’s incredibly risky to attempt achieving. Eventually, after 18 years, the inverted portfolio ran out of money. The portfolio that started up 31.69% in 1989 ended its twenty-year run at $3,073,031.00. How to preserve against varying returnsHow do we ensure that we’re not selling assets into a down market? By using income segmentation also referred to as the bucket strategy. In this example, the buckets/segments start in three-year increments (I prefer to use five-year increments). How do we position money so that our retiree has $5,000 of supplemental monthly income? We want to place those funds in assets that will
You may never have heard of Trend Following as an investment strategy. That’s because it’s not a commonly followed approach for any of the Finance Experts you’ll find out there. It’s an investing approach that has been in existence for a long time but has only been used by hedge funds, until now. My guest on this episode is Alex Krainer, Founder of Krainer Analytics and I-System Trend Following. He’s served in the financial industry as a hedge fund manager, market analyst, and futures trader since 1996. He’s also the author of many books. He publishes the daily “Trend Compass Report,” which I have found extremely valuable. This episode will introduce you to the concept of Trend Following, explain the basics of how it works, and walk you through Alex’s experience as what might be considered a “contrary” voice in the investing world. You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...Trend following: a helpful tool for developing investment strategies [1:40] Alex’s experience and development of trend following [10:09] Why trend following has not been embraced much by experts [17:54] Alex’s 4 pillars: Truth, Strategy, Discipline, Patience [24:04] The spiritual element Alex brings to investment strategy [31:39] Alex’s goal to help ordinary people become financially strong [36:12]
What is trend following and how does it help with investment strategy?In 1997, Alex worked for an oil trading company and was asked to develop a systematic way to manage market risk. As he assessed the situation, it wasn’t so much a matter of risk as it was a matter of uncertainty and he couldn’t predict the future. For years the company had used the typical Fundamentals analysis approach, which had led them to big losses. As he and his team looked at the problem, they knew that if they could figure out the trends the market operated on and could extract value from those observations, they would be on the right track. They discovered that many hedge funds were already pursuing a trend following approach and were experiencing great success. He and his team built a prototype of their trend following model in 1999 and discovered many maintenance problems that kept them from optimizing the system. He refined the model in 2000 with the help of a professional software engineer and has been using it without a glitch since that time. Learning how to invest from predators in the wildAlex learned much of his investment philosophies from watching a documentary about predators in the wild. As he watched lions going about the act of hunting, he realized that they instinctively follow a predetermined “hunting process.” He reasoned that this process was part of their design and was to ensure that the species’ instincts and decision-making processes were profitable. And he could see that they were profitable or else lions would not continue to exist. His observation was that predators pass most of their time watching potential prey. They take action to go after their prey only when they see the right opportunity. There is also a risk-management process that prevents the animals from unnecessarily wasting their limited energy. The second a predator determines it is unlikely to make a kill, it will give up. Alex sums up how he thought about this natural process in these words, “If you follow nature’s logic and nature’s model then that would probably be a way to design a system of managing investments that could potentially be infinitely sustainable and infinitely generate profits from investing.” Why TRUTH matters when it comes to investment strategyMost financial experts write about the importance of strategy, discipline, and patience in investing, and Alex embraces those principles as well. But he adds a fourth area of focus in his approach—TRUTH. He explains it this way: You have to understand how the system works (the systems of human society, human psychology, economy, and the markets that stem from them). As you learn...
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