Global Data Pod: Recent Episodes
J.P. Morgan Global Research
Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.
A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 7 August 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The view is tracking a cyclical lift that comes with job growth, which in turn will amplify already elevated inflation concerns and spark a central bank turn toward tightening. Whether the mood around this call is shifting for the better or not is up for debate given ongoing downside worries. Against this backdrop, Chair Warsh’s performance in conveying an effective Fed policy path is also up for debate.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 31 July 2026.
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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the solid 2Q26 GDP reports and the (relative) clarity of central bank speak in Western Europe.
This podcast was recorded on 30 July 2026.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest inflation developments and the outlook for the second half. The pullback in energy prices delivered a sizable disinflationary impulse in June, but that inflation drag is unlikely to persist unless oil prices move lower again. Global core inflation eased in June, but owed largely to a soft US print which may be understating underlying momentum. Through the noise, global core inflation remains sticky at closer to 3%––a level we expect to be maintained during 2H26. Lower food inflation has helped to temper the energy shock, but risks are for a turn higher as El Niño intensifies.
This podcast was recorded on July 30, 2026.
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The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.
Speaker:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026.
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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the latest on the Western European economy, which is seeing improving growth face off against yet another energy price shock.
This podcast was recorded on 24 July, 2026.
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While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a still elevated level.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM.
This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026.
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In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or arguing about them. The baseline is still for continued expansion with a bit of upside risk driven by an unstoppable consumer, but downsides can still be seen in the tail.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.
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This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France.
This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.
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An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026.
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Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on household purchasing power. However, monthly CPI gains have started to cool and June’s sharp decline in oil prices sets up a meaningful deceleration in headline momentum; if Brent holds near current levels, headline inflation could slide below ~2%ar and support 2H26 growth. While the difficult trade-off posed by a shock that raises inflation and lowers growth is being removed, central banks still need to contend with uncomfortably firm services price pressures and overall core inflation that remains stuck close to 3%.
This podcast was recorded on July 02, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
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The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high that the expansion is on an upturn. This shifts the conversation to the next battle: If, when, and by how much will central banks need to tap the brake to get the inflation contained.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.
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Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.
This podcast was recorded on June 19, 2026.
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Growth resilience through 2Q, hints of a deal to get oil flowing through the Strait, and signs of firming labor markets raise the question of shifting growth risks to the upside for 2H26. A reassessment of growth and inflation risks is, in turn, sparking a rethink in central bank policies.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening out, supporting our thesis that the cycle owes more to fading business caution than to a narrow AI boost. How well the supply side of the economy can keep pace with firming demand will tell the tale for central banks, including the Fed—which is likely to shift toward a neutral stance this month.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 June 2026.
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The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or have the same degree of caution? If the Strait opens, will the cycle accelerate or are there headwinds to still worry about for 2H26? And if not, what should this mean for central banks?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 29 May 2026.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, bringing the gain since February to 1%-pt. The three-month annualized headline CPI rate jumped to 6.0%––its strongest pace since 2022––with energy prices alone adding 4%ar. Core inflation has remained sticky around 3% but we see growing risks of a break higher amid a mix of goods sector cost pressures, tightening labor markets, and firm pricing power. The signals on services inflation are mixed, with surveys suggesting a sharp loss in demand growth alongside a jump in prices.
This podcast was recorded on May 28, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5300334-0
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© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week’s DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks alive. Absent this risk, inflation pressures are underappreciated and point to a potential central bank problem in the coming quarters.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 22 May 2026.
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Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both, but it's the latter that will have staying power and is thus fueling their hawkish shift.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 14 May 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to outperform growth expectations, while its external sector undergoes a structural shift toward IT and financial services that most investors are still overlooking. We then turn to the June 2026 parliamentary elections and why their outcome is directly tied to the pace of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process and the prospect of opening the Turkish border for the first time since 1993. After more than three decades of conflict, a new chapter may finally be within reach in the South Caucasus.
Speakers
Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Fatih Akcelik, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Moderator: Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 13 May 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5250547-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5207471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5165451-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a strong start to the year with momentum in manufacturing continuing into April and 2) central banks that may have turned more hawkish again but remain cautiously on hold. The ability of the US consumer to smooth as well as they did last year is debated.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 30 April 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy prices surged in response to the Iran conflict, pushing the three-month annualized headline CPI rate to its strongest pace in three years. Inflation outside of energy was well-behaved, with core inflation up a modest 0.19% gain last month. Although the 3%ar 3m run-rate in core inflation remains elevated, the step-down in March reinforces central bank patience through the initial leg of this oil price spike. Inflation paths are differentiated across regions, but so are central bank reaction functions. We expect Western European central banks to tilt more hawkish in response to the energy shock than the Fed.
This podcast was recorded on April 28, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5277839-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5267518-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5261954-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look like.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 April 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth but a dash more inflation. The “not having your cake and eating it too” theme is back on the menu. The case for more hawkish central banks is made, most clearly for the Fed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 17 April 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which remain large, we see supports to weather the storm. However, signs of slowing consumer spending last quarter and a March drop in surveys raise concerns.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on April 10, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of debate (both "should" and "will") about central bank reactions.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicating central bank reactions.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on March 20, 2026.
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The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty high, central banks will likely stay in wait-and-see mode. The degree to which cyclical context influences policy decisions is debated. A few brief remarks provided on Asian activity tracking.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2026.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihood and magnitude of second-order effects on core inflation and inflation expectations; and how central banks are likely to react to the shock.
This podcast was recorded on March 12, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5232201-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222819-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5222602-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5223806-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5229672-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labor markets continue to lag.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 6 March 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a focus on how to think about AI’s impact.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2026.
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J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience.
In this episode we discuss the group’s inaugural report on Rare Earths, we discuss the rare earth supply chain, why rare earths are critical, common myths, and the potential US playbook going forward.
Featuring Jahangir Aziz, Co-Head of Economic Research and Head of Industry & Policy Thematics, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy.
This podcast was recorded on February 25, 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5211349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined with elevated inflation make market pricing for Fed cuts in 2H26 increasingly untenable.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US inflation data follows a similar pattern, with the underlying signal pointing to somewhat less firming than incorporated in our forecast.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2026.
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Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be central to presumptive Fed Chair Warsh’s ability to either deliver cuts or be stymied by a more cautious FOMC. Given the upward pressures on inflation in 1H26, inflation is less likely to be an x-factor pointing to lower Fed rates.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 6 February 2026.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamics looks to be ending and will give way to more disparate 2026 outcomes. US inflation is expected to accelerate above 3%oya as an early-year rebound combines with persistent goods price pressures. At the same time, declining goods prices and moderating wage pressures should push Euro area inflation down further to 1.9% . Early 2026 signals, including the flash Euro area HICP for January and US price surveys, lend support to our views.
This podcast was recorded on 04 February 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5185055-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167500-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5196570-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5174882-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party
Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firming and pushing the unemployment rate to record lows. In the US, Fed chair nominee Warsh is likely to push for lower rates but could find himself in the dissent in the face of strong growth and sticky high inflation.
Speaker:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 30 January 2026.
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Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way amid strong growth and elevated inflation this year. With personnel changes coming up, leadership questions abound.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 23 January 2026.
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Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest US policy announcements meaningful? Is the Fed in serious jeopardy? Can you believe we’re only two weeks into the new year?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to new drivers, while also debating how to interpret the latest data and geopolitical developments. Growth is tracking strong, but labor markets are still a key concern.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 9 January 2026.
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© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports. Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years. This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.
This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167134-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5160379-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5161477-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5159323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party
Kicking the tires
After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: still-to-come immigration drags and the hit to growth and inflation from health care costs.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The conversation also explores the outlook for 2026, examining whether these driving forces will sustain the region’s momentum. Our speakers also discuss key economic and political risks that may impact Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in the year ahead.
This podcast was recorded on December 08, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5136574-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5140889-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5124410-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asia views are upgraded, but possibly with a little too much verve.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on November 11, 2025.
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The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid 3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even weaker labor market data this week from the US and Western Europe. Resilience into next year depends on how well the tick weathers the tock.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 14 November 2025.
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Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not change Trump’s mission (with numerous tools still at his disposal) but it could indicate that this Supreme Court has some limits—with a possible read-through to the Fed Governor Lisa Cook court case in January.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 7 November 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continued sticky inflation around 3%. Along with the trimming of downside growth risks, this has unsurprisingly prompted central banks to turn less dovish. While US core inflation has risen less than expected at the outset of the trade war, it is running well above target and we still anticipate tariff-related pressures will push it higher, with the likely peak now in 1Q26. Outside the US, core inflation has moderated somewhat as goods inflation is not seeing the same tariff-induced bounce. However, core services inflation has yet to fully normalize, and volatile items add to the sticky core picture.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canada Economist
This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5113765-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094754-0; and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110036-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economies on a more solid footing. Gbolahan and Katie go through takeaways for Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Egypt, Senegal and Uganda.
Speakers
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5110345-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unclear. But we maintain that there is a tension in risk markets pricing both resilience and a Fed that returns rates to neutral, with inflation looking sticky absent a more material soft patch in growth.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fiscal policies have tilted easier this year, a theme we stressed in our year-ahead outlook, but the latest developments (France, Japan, China, US) do not move the global needle much.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives for now, but keep the risks for a bend-but-not break global outlook skewed to the downside and the Fed in insurance easing mode.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting consumer spending for now. But labor income growth is softening broadly, and is set to take a sharp leg down next quarter in the US. Absent a bounce back in hiring, the expansion will be on shaky ground.
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085949-0and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083938-0for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and much of the expansion in domestic final sales––in 1H25. While hyperscaler capex levels are expected to stay high in coming years, current growth rates are unlikely to be sustained, implying a smaller GDP contribution in 2026. We also discuss potential mismeasurement of tech investment in the GDP accounts.
This podcast was recorded on September 23, 2025.
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Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more aggressive easing cycle. Beneath the surface, 4-6 quarters of weak job growth with trend-like GDP growth raises questions about the structure of the economy while also adding to near-term vulnerabilities.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025.
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The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025.
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Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025.
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Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay the expected pothole or fill it over? The Fed is set to cut, but strong growth, high-and-rising inflation, and threats to independence complicate the path beyond.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025.
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Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fed opens the door to significant reforms, some of which could threaten independence.
This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the implications of currency movements for the inflation outlook. We also expand on the root-causes of China’s excess capacity and whether the government’s latest anti-involution measures are gaining traction.
This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045284-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 August 2025.
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Jahangir Aziz and Katie Marney discuss sluggish EM capital flows against a backdrop of trade uncertainty, risks to global growth, elevated treasury yields, and a weaker dollar. EM capital flows have been languishing and shifting in composition since about 2015. Hopes that a weaker US dollar would break EM capital flows out its malaise have not been fulfilled. We explore our finding that dollar’s influence as a push factor for EM investment flows has been waning, while US Treasury yields matter more. EM also needs to offer a sufficient growth pick-up to pull in flows. We also discuss China’s role as an attractor or substitute for broader EM capital flows. Greater macro stability for many EMs have also necessitated lower capital flows and enabled EM to face three big economic and funding shocks over the last 5 years.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 29, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5040188-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
As trade (hand-shake) deals get made, it is looking increasingly likely that the effective tariff rate is going to settle very close to the 22% rate initially announced on April 2. And yet, the global expansion looks resilient through 1H25. Is the shock just not that big? Is there more fundamental support for growth? Are businesses willing to smooth the shock over time? Are easy financial conditions short-circuiting the shock? Or is it just too soon, with the past flattered by front-loading and a sharp break still to come?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025.
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The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months. We continue to expect a rotation in core inflation towards the US, but have scaled back the size of this projected US-RoW inflation gap while also pushing back its expected timing. A synchronized slowing in global growth alongside moderating wage inflation is likely to weigh on service price pressures more broadly while core goods inflation should ease modestly outside the US once the front-loading lift unwinds and transshipments from China are closed off.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Michael Hanson, Senior Global Economist
This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2025.
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5031696-0*
For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025.
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We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing conviction in the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. We see the risk of a September easing as high, contingent upon further evidence of softening in the US labor markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 June 2025.
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The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the forecast even further.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 20 June 2025.
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The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy will be net disinflationary for Europe and see a positive gap opening up between core inflation in the US and the rest of the world.
This podcast was recorded on 12 June 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5006121-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991721-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5000178-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4993783-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes.
This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025.
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Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025.
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The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates.
This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025.
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The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a break in the data.
This podcast was recorded on May 9, 2025.
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Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extended hold.
This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the downside; a pullback in US front-loading demand along with a decoupling of US-China trade should put downward pressure on goods prices as excess supply is redirected elsewhere. Absent a meaningful retaliation, we see core inflation outside the US moderating to 2.5-3%ar over 2H25.
This podcast was recorded on April 30, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966015-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4956489-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4960640-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock.
This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4958251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 04/17/2025.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession.
This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025.
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A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025.
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Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi joins Bruce Kasman to discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation Monitor and how the incoming data and tariff news are shaping our inflation views. Global goods prices are firming even before tariffs were put in place, with pressures broadening outside the US. As more tariffs are imposed, this puts the onus on still-sticky services inflation to do much of the heavy lifting in getting inflation down. We retain our sticky global core inflation view and see upside risks to our forecast for global core inflation to moderate to below 3%ar in coming quarter. Beneath this sticky inflation perspective, we continue to see scope for greater diversity in inflation outcomes across countries.
This podcast was recorded on March 26, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4943283-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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Risks to the global expansion are elevated in the face of a broadening trade war, but incoming news highlights a still underlying resilient expansion. The trade drag weighing down 1Q25 US growth is reflecting a boost elsewhere, particularly in Asia where the latest news points to a surge in trade activity in advance of prospective tariffs.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The data through January tell a story of a moderating expansion, but the ongoing US policy turmoil is weighing on February sentiment readings. Absent a détente in the US war on trade and other domestic austerity measures, we put the risk of recession this year at 40%. Next week’s Fed meeting should aim to not make waves.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025.
See the Daily consumer spending tracker (https://jpmm-internal.jpmchase.net/research/open/latest/publication/9002054) for disclaimers and methodology for Chase Card Tracker data.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A tumultuous week in the US trade war leaves the world only with modestly higher tariffs on China but more downside risk. While tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods got pushed back (again) to April, noncompliant goods (estimated at 20% of total imports) will be tariffed at 25%. The impact of the chaos alongside the austerity measures of DOGE are likely to weigh on confidence and growth. Odds of global recession this year have jumped to 40%. Absent recession and against the backdrop of a sharp projected rise in German fiscal spending, the US’s own policy actions are likely to end this expansion’s period of US exceptionalism.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the key takeaways from our latest Global Inflation Monitor and inflation risks stemming from higher tariffs . While there are reasons to fade elements of the January upside inflation surprise, global core inflation remains stuck at a 3% pace and we have nudged our 1Q25 forecast upward to 3.4%ar. Moreover, headline inflation has firmed to a 3.7%ar over the past three months after a slide to 2.6%ar over the prior six months. Tariffs are likely to add to inflation in the near-term, but medium-term inflation pressures should tilt lower due to the associated drags on sentiment. Euro area underlying inflation remains on track to moderate to 2% as weak demand looks to be weighing on corporate pricing power, while declining wage inflation fades cost pressures. US inflation appears moderately more sticky and a recent pop in some measures of inflation expectations point to a more gradual pace of disinflation.
This podcast was recorded on March 04, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920790-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925120-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci, of the US Economics team, discuss their latest Research Note on the challenges for meeting the many disparate objectives of the Trump tariffs, and what that might mean for tariff revenues.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson, Senior US and Canadian Economist
Murat Tasci, Senior US Economist
This podcast was recorded on March 3, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4921610-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We see more momentum loss in the data and question how much is noise and how much is signal; we also question what that signal is if any. This then sets the foundation for assessing the risks related to the multitude of US policy risks on the horizon.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025.
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Nicolaie, Katie, Gbolahan and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge from policy actions taken by the Trump administration around FDI, trade and aid flows. In addition, they discuss an impending review of US membership to international organizations, which could encompass the World Bank and IMF, and how that could impact the EM Edge.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
Gbolahan S Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 26 February 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910014-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906578-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4910054-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The cyclical momentum into year-end is losing some steam at the start of the year—how much so is debatable. Uncertainties around US policy are the key risks to the outlook. Looking through the range of Trump policy initiatives, the balance of risks looks to be tilting more negative—again, how much so is debatable.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.
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The latest data show downside surprises to growth and upside surprises to inflation. However, with so much noise at the start of the year, it is hard to take too much signal and with fundamentals still solid, we are comfortable with the outlook for healthy global growth this quarter. The risk is more looking forward and how the flood of back-and-forth Trump policies is impacting business decision making.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 14 February 2025.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the global expansion remains on solid footing for now. According to this week’s January surveys, the firming in global industry late last year looks to have continued into 2025. However, US policy churn—including an unexpected trade war on its closest trading partners—has increased uncertainties that are likely to be a new headwind, particularly on business spending. US fiscal policies are limited by already elevated deficits, adding to concerns of sustainability.
This podcast was recorded on February 7, 2025.
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Tariffs could lift global inflation this year, but business cycle dynamics are likely to play an important role in driving core inflation performance. Consistent with our forecast that the global economy turns into the new year generating above-trend growth, we anticipate that global core CPI (ex China and Türkiye) will rise at a 3%ar in 1H25, in line with its 2024 outcome. Alongside a firming in core goods inflation, services inflation looks set to continue but should be limited and divergent across countries. Our bias is for a larger Euro area inflation slide vis a vis the US and UK, while EM is likely to remain differentiated. Tariffs add to upside risk and will provide a further test of persistent inflation and psychology.
SpeakersNora Szentivanyi, Global Economist
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
This podcast was recorded on February 05, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4795397-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895168-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
In a week of news regarding ongoing resilient growth and still-solid inflation, our key call of a Trump-lite policy outcome this year is being severely challenged with the confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Such an outturn would not only weigh more heavily on the global outlook but also undermine the US expansion given the centrality of the US’s most important trading partners. Amid a flurry of central bank meetings, we largely got what was expected.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025.
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Michael Hanson, senior US and Canadian economist, and Gabriel Lozano, Head of Mexico Economics, discuss their latest Research Note on the Trump administration’s threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They explore the motivations, risks for retaliation, potential economic implications, and consequences for USMCA.
This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4894757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
While absent of immediate trade war, the start of the Trump administration brought little clarity to the US policy path ahead, and we do not change our key calls. Against this backdrop, the global economy is humming along with news supporting our call for global industry to perk up in the coming months. Among the many central banks meeting next week, the Fed (hold) and ECB (-25bp) will be a reminder of the stark divergence between these two economies.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025.
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Monday’s Inauguration Day in the US will not be a lifting of the policy fog that many are hoping for but rather just the start of a broad set of sweeping policy changes, the effects of which will take months (or longer) to understand. Still, a likely wave of executive orders will begin a period of busy policy and data tracking. Global industry looks to have perked up at year-end but the surveys remain depressed. Tracking the state of global sentiment as it processes the coming flurry of US actions will be particularly important as a leading indicator.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025.
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Jahangir Aziz joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US trade policy, its impact on the rest of the world and how views on tariffs have evolved in the past month or so. Our 2025 outlook assumes that new tariffs from the Trump administration will be targeted at China. A clear risk to our baseline view is that increases in US tariffs will be more widespread.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4882648-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885198-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Recent data support our long-standing view for resilient growth, elevated sticky inflation, and constrained central bank easing. The known unknowns around US policy reinforce these views but are also raising financial and macro risks that have both a directional and timing uncertainty.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Kasman
This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025.
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Sajjid Chinoy joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for EM Asian economies in 2025. The tech cycle upswing, underpinned by AI-related demand, has been crucial to the region’s resilience in 2024. While these tech tailwinds are likely to sustain, the regional outlook for 2025 is heavily clouded by a US-China Trade War 2.0. In contrast to the last US-China trade war, the rest of the region is more vulnerable this time around because activity is still much below the pre-pandemic path and the shock itself is likely to be more acute (potentially larger increase in tariffs with the transshipment escape-valve closed). Moreover, the policy space to respond – especially on fiscal – is more constrained this time. So the collateral damage on the region, while differentiated across countries, is likely to be larger than commonly presumed.
This podcast was recorded on January 09, 2025.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4866513-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A number of elements of our high-for-long rate narrative will be tested by data and policy guidance this quarter. We will receive greater clarity on the direction of US policy where we expect the new administration to eschew extremes on trade and immigration policy while moving forward quickly on regulatory relief. Our expectation for a lift in global industry and firming in goods prices is already being challenged by a disappointing global mfg. PMI. On inflation we do not see a repeat of the past two year’s front-loaded price increases, but look for the persistence of sticky global core CPI gains.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 3 January 2025.
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Global industry is getting a boost from firming final demand. We are bullish for manufacturing in the coming months—to be supported by next week’s expected December reports on US retail sales and G-4 flash PMI readings. Central banks are still easing but the drivers have turned more domestic. Next week’s projected 25bp Fed cut would bring the 2024 easing cycle to 100bp, despite material upside surprises this year to both growth and core inflation forecasts. (The Weekender will return January 3; Happy holidays to all!)
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 13 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi, Vinicius Moreira & Tingting Ge. Despite a slowing in China’s headline GDP growth post-pandemic, Emerging Market (EM) commodity exporters have benefited from their ties with China. China has actively sought to stockpile commodities and relocate its supply chain away from the West towards EMs. China has also more than offset the loss of export market share in the West by increasing its presence in other EM countries. A further rise in US tariffs on China will hurt China growth and that of EM manufacturing exporters. But EM commodity exporters could be buffered if China doubles down on friend-shoring commodity imports. Going forward, China’s growth impact on the rest of EM will likely be determined by the evolution of trade tensions with the US as well as China’s policy response.
This podcast was recorded on 11 December 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4817591-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential pace with some welcome improvement for global industry. The US and China stand out to the upside, while Europe is the weak link. Despite resilient growth and sticky, elevated inflation, central banks seem inclined to continue their easing cycles.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024.
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Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various risk scenarios.
This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852356-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes.
This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Nora Szentivanyi
This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024.
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Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan and Hong Kong. Two major themes affect our 2025 growth outlook, namely China’s domestic policy shift since late September, and the Trump win in the US presidential election. While we think the odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons, the probability of a significant tariff hike on China imports has increased significantly. This stands in contrast with our previous assumption of no major change in trade policy in 2025 and has significant implications on the Greater China 2025 macro growth and policy outlook.
This podcast was recorded on Nov 22, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4842856-0, and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the most exposed given their low diversification, high funding needs, openness to trade and shallower local capital markets. Yet, starting points are generally more favorable than compared to past global shocks as fundamentals have improved. Reliance on volatile market funding is also less and FX reserves are higher. While Edge economies, as with most global economies, would be exposed, there are relative points of pressure and other economies that could benefit. The podcast debates three channels through which Edge economies could be exposed to policy changes in the US: trade, immigration and funding conditions.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on 20 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4837413-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4844291-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s flash PMIs will be the first data prints post US election, and we will be closely watching the vibe expressed in the future output components. Manufacturing should indicate caution given trade war concerns, while the broader all-industry measure could show some widening divergence between the US and the rest of the world.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the US election is a material shock to the baseline, but one that reinforces our view that pushed back against a consensus for an immaculate disinflation. A careful assessment of the coming supply and demand shocks to the global economy will lead us to expect diverse growth outcomes but undeniably higher inflation and less policy easing.
This podcast was recorded on November 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labor report should be faded, but strong 3Q GDP growth and healthy income gains are constructive. Nevertheless, moderating wages gains should help the Fed ease at next week’s meeting while presenting an open mind about December. Elsewhere, we look for a 25bp cut from the BoE next week as well as an announcement of further China stimulus.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Katie, Nicolaie, Gbolahan and Steven discuss takeaways for EM Edge economies from last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings. Investors started the year ready to increase their exposures to EM Edge economies spurred by improved fundamentals, attractive valuations and reduced US recession risks. Improving fiscal and current accounts, better growth, high nominal (and real) rates and structural reform efforts drove interest in a diverse set of Edge economies. That interest remains intact. Yet, stories remain highly idiosyncratic which warrants differentiation. Following an overview of broad themes, the podcast goes into the most top-of-mind frontier markets from last week’s meetings.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4829599-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. The risks of a blue versus red wave, and versus divided government lead to varied outcomes on growth, inflation, and the Fed. All of these are discussed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation eased further to 2.7%oya, aided by falling energy prices––a decline that has supported consumer purchasing power. But core inflation is proving to be sticky around 3% after stepping down from 3.4%ar in 1H24. Services inflation globally continues to run above pre-pandemic norms, even as goods prices have returned to their pre-pandemic inflation rate. However, persistent divergences in both domestic demand and supply are now starting to drive greater variation in inflation outcomes.
This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global growth forecast.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged to their pre-pandemic norms. The direction from here is upward, in our view. While we are not overly concerned yet, we are monitoring risks rising global food prices, increases in global energy prices and a continued hawkish re-pricing of Fed policy that brings EM Edge currencies under pressure.
Speakers
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on October 15, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 20XX JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation running at a pace little different from a year-ago (around 3%ar), more respect for a high-for-long scenario is also needed. Not all are in same boat, and Euro area growth weakness is likely to get the ECB to cut rates next week. Enthusiasm for a China fiscal bazooka has built, but we do not see this as likely.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the upcoming fiscal announcement will be important to watch: magnitude, composition and forward guidance. We do not expect the October fiscal package to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with only modest direct support for consumers, but additional fiscal easing is likely further down the road. Accommodative fiscal policy is important not only in the near term, but also into 2025 when the Chinese economy may face a series of adverse shocks.
This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813222-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether this adds probability to the Goldilocks outturn or the boil-the-frog scenario we have warned about is still uncertain, but the odds of rates staying higher than previously thought are clearly up. The global goods sector still looks grim, as does European growth. We remain skeptical about the medium run outlook for China even if seeing potential upside to the near-term.
Speaker:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.
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Growth was relatively strong across the EM Edge economies in 2Q. Nicolaie, Steven and Katie debate the influence that diverging growth risks in US, China and Europe has for growth in the Edge. While the US influence may predominate, fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms and changing trade patterns (among others) enable some differentiation between Edge economies. Differing cyclical conditions in part explain why Fed easing won’t alter most Edge central banks’ reaction functions.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803854-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799145-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and US labor market news are likely to exacerbate the tensions. Despite this, US growth is robust while Europe is held back by a weak Germany. China’s policy shift this week is encouraging only if a signal of more to come. Joe shares pics from his trip to the North Branch Outing Club in Northern Michigan.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower energy prices, while core inflation moved sideways at 3.1%. The monthly pace of core CPI gains firmed marginally to 0.3%, but remains on track to ease in line with our forecasts for a moderation to 2.8%ar this quarter from a 3.4%ar pace in the first half of the year. While the recent slide in US core inflation stands out, there has been some encouraging progress with respect to services disinflation in a number of other countries too. In this episode we discuss the Euro area’s inflation dynamics in more detail and what it means for the ECB.
This podcast was recorded on Sept 24, 2024.
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Bruce Kasman and Jay Barry discuss how the Fed met their expectations for a 50bp rate cut as it shifted its assessment of risk while not materially adjusting its growth or inflation forecasts. Markets showed a continued steepening in the US curve but the rise in longer-term yields suggests that this is aligned with greater confidence in the Fed engineering a sustained expansion.
This podcast was recorded on 9/20/2024.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how the Fed will take center stage in a week marked by a number of significant central bank decisions that don’t revolve around a common theme. We anticipate a 50bp rate cut from the FOMC as it responds to a material shift in risk bias. At the same time, we expect the BoE to follow the ECB in guiding toward a cautious rate normalization path while we anticipate the BoJ will continue to emphasize further rate hikes lie ahead. We also see Norges Bank on hold, an easing from SARB, and a tightening from Brazil’s BCB.
This podcast was recorded on 9/13/2024.
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Speakers
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
EM Edge economies have seen improvements in their fundamentals with only limited exceptions. We have also seen better growth and fiscal consolidation in primary balances, mainly in Africa. IMF programs have helped along the way with both reforms and funding. Despite these trends and against a more favorable global backdrop relative to 2022 and 2023, rating changes have been mixed. Katherine Marney, Steven Palacio and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent rating trends across the all regions.
This podcast was recorded on 10 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4778639-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The latest PMIs reinforce the resilience of the global expansion, even if still imbalanced across sectors. While the US has led with the strongest recovery, the more material moderation in the labor markets of late shifts the risk skew onto growth over inflation. This points to at least 100bp of Fed cuts by year-end with a start of 50bp later this month. Elsewhere, the cutting cycle has already begun as inflation looks on path to return to target and we look for another 25bp cut from the ECB next week.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on 6 September 2024.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the July CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global inflation remains sticky at 3% with a 0.3% monthly core CPI gain in July. But a regional rotation is under way in which a greater easing in labor cost pressures and goods price declines are producing a pronounced slide in US core inflation. While US core CPI inflation eased to just 1.6%ar in the three months to July, Euro area core HICP rose at a 3.5%ar and EM core inflation (ex China, Turkiye and Russia) reaccelerated close to 4%.
This podcast was recorded on Aug 22, 2024.
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Recession risks faded a bit this week as a stronger US consumer and a dip in initial claims combined with a constructive CPI report that gives a green light to Fed easing. At the same time, global sectoral and geographic imbalances abound, as a strong US contrasts with a loss of momentum in Europe and a weak China. A weak manufacturing sector everywhere also keeps downside risks elevated. Next week’s flash PMIs in the DM will be keenly watched for rotational improvements.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 16 August 2024.
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Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below the government’s target of 5%––and continue to see a further slowdown to 4% in 2025. When activity has faltered in the past authorities tended to increase policy support to keep GDP growth close to the target range. This is becoming increasingly challenging, progressively requiring more policy stimulus to generate the same growth impact. Deflationary pressures have become entrenched amid lopsided policy support that has favored production over consumption, while the time inconsistency of China’s housing strategy has prolonged the most severe downturn in three decades.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4770915-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4747455-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4748628-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss how it has been a volatile week in financial markets, with tension between what we assess to be a modest rise in downside growth risks and a more significant shift in the near-term prospects for Fed easing. Importantly, the Fed is set to ease partly on the back of strong supply-performance reducing labor market pressures, a development not evident in other major economies.
This podcast was recorded on 08/09/2924.
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Sajjid Chinoy and Seok Gil Park join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the implications of a more front-loaded Fed easing path for EM Asia. Soft core inflation in EM Asia ordinarily would call for a reversal of some of the monetary policy tightening of the last few years. Yet policy has been constrained in several cases by low interest-rate differentials versus the US and concerns over financial stability. Against this backdrop, a Fed that cuts more rapidly to neutral opens up much-needed space for EM Asian central banks to respond more fully to domestic growth-inflation dynamics. The scale of the response is likely to be bifurcated across the region. We see greater scope for additional cuts in India, Indonesia, and China. The case is less compelling in Taiwan and Korea because the output gap has closed in the former and domestic financial stability considerations are weighing on easing in the latter.
This podcast was recorded on August 8, 2024.
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4766359-0
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The week started and ended soft. On Monday, the global manufacturing PMI tumbled in July, erasing this year’s gain and pointing to a stall in global industry. On Friday, the July US payroll report added fuel to the concern that the US was slipping into recession. While there is reason to temper the latest news and the fundamental supports for growth remain strong, we see recession risks jumping to near 50%. Whether US weakness, should it appear, can decouple from the rest of the world is an open question.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 2 August 2024.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the July jobs report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy This podcast was recorded on 8.2.24.
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A disappointing set of flash PMIs challenge our call for a rotation toward better manufacturing relative to services and toward an improved Europe relative to the US. Noisy signals, solid fundamentals (with another strong US payrolls expected next week), and easing borrowing costs keep us believing that the expansion is still mid-cycle. Fed to be encouraged by further balance in the data but patient--remaining on hold next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 26 July 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2024.
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Ravi Balakrishnan, Chief European Economist, and Alexander Wise, from Long-term Strategy discuss a new special report on debt challenges in the Euro area.
This podcast was recorded on July 24, 2024.
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The global expansion is moderating but we maintain conviction that the underlying supports are strong. Solid US retail sales and manufacturing reports reinforce the lift underway in global industry. At the same time, we are more cautious on the building enthusiasm for the immaculate disinflation. Disappointing China spending data temper the outlook but are largely a domestic affair.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 19 July 2024.
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Inflation over the past two months has moderated across many economies, a welcome relief that challenges our sticky inflation call. However, increasing confidence in growth suggests that even if rate cutting cycles are seeing a green light to commence, the easing path could still be shallower than expected. Spillovers from Fed easing do not outweigh domestic conditions in the EM.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 July 2024.
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The latest data show a global expansion that is both resilient and moderating. The June global PMIs remain consistent with strong growth at midyear, while a slide in business expectations points to concerns in the months ahead as political uncertainties heat up. In the US a solid payrolls report fuels consumer purchasing power but the moderation in the pace of growth could portend more slowing to come. With hints of inflation slowing as well, the direction of travel is toward potentially earlier rate cuts.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 July 2024.
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The overall performance of the global economy has aligned with our forecast in 1H24 as the growth base has broadened, inflation has proven sticky and central banks cautious. However, momentum shifts into midyear raise new questions about what lies ahead. We believe that the course of the global expansion – and policy rates – is centrally linked to the willingness of a business sector with still high margins, but facing sluggish profit growth and high borrowing costs, to expand.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 28 June 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.
This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024.
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Vinicius Moreira and Tingting Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss how the shift in China’s commodity imports away from the US have benefitted key commodity producers such as Brazil. Since the 2018 trade war, Brazil’s share in China’s imports has been growing, especially relative to the US performance. On the top of that, China has been importing commodities beyond what the domestic fundamentals would indicate. These factors are helping to keep demand for Brazilian products elevated, creating incentives for the local production, and making the trade surplus wider than otherwise it would have been.
This podcast was recorded on June 26, 2024.
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© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
After a consequential week on inflation, this week focuses on growth tracking. Global IP is on track for a bounce this quarter, as expected, but a softening in consumer goods spending raises some concern about sustainability. So too does a disappointing set of June flash PMIs. On balance, however, we still see solid support for an expansion that is already expected to moderate into the second half.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Nora Szentivanyi
This podcast was recorded on 21 June 2024.
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In a consequential week for the US, the first soft inflation print in five months gave the Fed and markets some relief. The Fed remained cautious but hopeful with an unchanged narrative: still eyeing a rate cutting cycle that begins this year and continues with nine cuts through 2026.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2024.
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After a month of data tilting a bit softer, this week’s news reaffirmed the resilience in the global expansion. A strong set of PMIs were capped off by a strong US payroll report. With fading fears on growth, central banks are left questioning the pace of cuts. The ECB and BoC both eased this week but were more cautious looking forward. Next week’s Fed should deliver caution as well with an adjustment up in the 2024 dots and possibly in 2025.
This podcast was recorded on 7 June 2024.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the May jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on June 7, 2024.
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In a data-heavy short week, the latest news points to somewhat softer growth and inflation but none of which alter views of a resilient expansion and sticky elevated inflation that will keep central banks more cautious. Next week’s global PMIs will be important for tracking our call of a manufacturing lift into midyear, while US payrolls to show continued support for consumers and the ECB and BoC look set to begin a tentative cutting cycle.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 31 May 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the latest global inflation report.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Global Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 29, 2024.
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The May flash PMIs this week add to confidence that US growth is resilient and that Europe is rebounding from last year’s stall. Consumer spending is still a weak point in Europe through last quarter, but this only reinforces our view that spending will perk up. Confidence in the disinflation path still points to ECB and BoC cuts in June, while risks for the Fed and BoE are pushing further out—underscored by a warning in this week’s Fed minutes and a strong upside surprise in UK April inflation.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 24 May 2024.
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Joseph Lupton joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss recent shifts in consumer confidence, its fundamental drivers and the outlook for consumer spending. Macroeconomic fundamentals such inflation, income growth, labor markets and stock markets explain a reasonable share of movements in consumer confidence. But the latest consumer sentiment readings for DM economies broadly sit below the levels suggested by macro conditions. A decoupling of this consumer “malaise” from actual consumer behavior in the US drove an acceleration in global consumer spending last quarter. And with the latest PMI surveys indicating that the base for global growth is broadening, we expect consumer spending in a few key regional weak-spots (particularly Western Europe) to follow suit in the months ahead.
This podcast was recorded on May 22, 2024.
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A good week for data delivers some relief on inflation and points to some moderation in growth, both of which are needed to keep central banks on the path toward easing. However, with inflation still elevated and labor markets still hot, more will be needed to put us back on the path to a soft-landing. Easing financial conditions could be too much of a good thing, short-circuiting the journey.
This podcast was recorded on 17 May 2024.
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Africa Edge stands out with best primary balance position across frontiers recorded last year. And economies in Africa have improved their primary balance positions in a significant manner in recent years, a trend that we expect to continue. This has been largely on the back of IMF-led reforms, but higher oil prices also helped.
This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2024.
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Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton. As we trim the tails of extreme risks to the upside and downside around the global outlook, we are settling into a resilient downshift. Sticky elevated inflation should give central banks more grief than it appears to have so far and rates markets have repriced. And yet, risk markets have taken it all in stride—because, in the end, we are all just talking about tracking (a resilient expansion).
This podcast was recorded on 5/10/2024.
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With growth and inflation both surprising to the upside in recent months (in the US and more broadly globally), confidence in the path to central bank easing has been shaken. In signaling that rate cuts are still on the near-horizon, both the Fed and ECB are hoping the data return to the path of immaculate disinflation that characterized 2H23. Absent that, we would expect a material narrative shift to follow in the face of continued upside growth and inflation surprises.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.
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Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 3 May 2024.
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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the nascent recoveries in the Euro area and UK, their varied implications for inflation and expectations for monetary policy easing. Despite raising our sights on Western European growth in recent weeks, we continue to expect the ECB to begin easing in June and the Bank of England from next quarter. A backdrop of a sustained sub-par performance lowers the bar to start the easing process. But the improvement in current growth prospects presents a stickier inflation challenge for the BoE than the ECB. This is reflected in our inflation outlook which sees Euro area core inflation sliding towards 2-2.5%ar, but UK core inflation consolidating near 3%ar in coming quarters.
This podcast was recorded on May 1, 2024.
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4682031-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683574-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
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In contrast to past episodes of yield spikes we believe it is unlikely that the recent rise in global bond yields will be reversed as markets sustainably shift up expectations for growth and the policy rate path for 2024-25. Next week’s FOMC meeting will likely see Chair Powell back away from the current dot plot and point to June as a time for a broader reassessment of the policy path ahead.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Jay Barry
This podcast was recorded on 26 April 2024.
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Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the monthly global inflation report and unpack implications for central bank monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2024.
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https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4683349-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi, Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the global CPI reports for March and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2024.
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© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Another week of stronger-than-expected growth data now has first-quarter global GDP tracking roughly a %-point above trend, similar to the robust outcome posted last year. Expectations remain for a deceleration but are we missing something more inherently robust? If so, what would that mean for inflation and how would central banks react?
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 19 April 2024.
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Strong growth alongside elevated inflation raises risks of both a high-for-long soft landing and a boil-the-frog higher-for-longer hard landing. Stronger-than-expected US CPI for a third straight month pushes out pricing of Fed cuts. Spillover to risk markets and to the rest of global monetary policy poses a risk to the expansion.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on 12 April 2024.
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Continued strong growth and robust labor markets alongside strong profits raise the likelihood of a longer expansion even if sticky inflation keeps odds of high-for-longer rates elevated. This week’s global PMIs and US payroll report underscore ongoing resilience, likely pushing back timing and/or magnitude of easing cycles. A key unknown is how this would revert back to financial conditions and short-circuit growth.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 05 April 2024.
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Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the March jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 5 April 2024.
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Michael Hanson and Murat Tasci analyze the factors that can —and cannot — account for the growing divergence between payroll and household employment, including immigration
This podcast was recorded on 04/04/2024.
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Hints of a pickup in global capex are emerging in activity data and surveys, with next week’s March global PMI likely to show positive news on manufacturing. On another front we remain confident in our forecast for high-for-long policy rates, which should be reinforced by a US immigration surge that is boosting both supply and demand.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports globally and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
Early 2024 data provide strong support for our view of a disinflation stall in 1H24. Global core CPI picked up to a 0.3%m/m sa pace in January-February, pushing our 1Q24 forecast to 3.4%ar. A phase of global goods price disinflation looks to have ended while service price inflation remains sticky. We expect core inflation to ease modestly to a roughly 3% pace next quarter. Less clear is the case for the step down in 2H24 and beyond which is not yet validated in global labor costs, short-term expectations or in recent signals from commodity markets.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy Research
Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 26 March 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4658475-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617757-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February global inflation report.
This podcast was recorded on March 25, 2024
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This week displayed significant diversity in central bank actions amid a clear-cut positive signal from the data flow (DM PMIs and China activity). While central bank diversity is an important theme, the dominant signal for markets is the hawkish guidance delivered by Chair Powell and Governor Ueda.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 22 March 2024.
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Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the economic effects of surging US immigration. Immigration has soared over the last few years, profoundly affecting some of the widely-followed economic statistics. It’s been important to the surprising pace of job growth, even alongside a modestly increasing unemployment rate. This, in turn, has added to overall income and output growth. The increase in immigration probably hasn’t had a first order effect on inflation: immigrants add to labor supply, but also add to consumer demand. However, there are many nuances to this assessment.
This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2024.
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The news flow supports our core views on growth resilience and core inflation stickiness as we turn into the new year. As central banks process this news we expect a DM easing to take hold at midyear but prove shallow. Next week, the FOMC should lean in this direction removing one easing from its dot plot and raising its r* estimate
This podcast was recorded on 15 March 2024.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the February jobs report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4648073-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
The global expansion looks to be broadening with both sectoral and geographic growth gaps closing. Resilience fades recession risks but keeps inflation risks on the table. In a Goldilocks report this week, US job growth remained strong last month but came alongside a rise in the urate. The Fed and ECB signaled cuts are coming but remain cautious.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 8 March 2024.
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Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. The outlook had turned more favorable for the EM Edge, aided by macro adjustments and a supportive external environment. Since then, markets have priced out earlier easing by DM central banks. While some of the optimism may have been tempered, the evolving external narrative has not challenged our views. Central Bank reaction functions should continue to be guided by domestic growth/inflation, which remain broadly favorable. Frontiers can also take comfort in the fact that shifts in global markets have not negatively impacted exchange rates. Easier financial conditions have also reduced liquidity concerns for some economies. The outlook for frontier economies remains broadly positive, in our view, absent a more aggressive repricing of the Fed and the dollar.
This podcast was recorded on March 5, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4638834-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4627975-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week’s activity reports suggest that global growth is resilient and forming a broader base as we start the new year. Inflation readings point to stickiness. Next week’s Powell testimony and ECB meeting should show these developments tempering but not derailing central bank confidence that inflation will continue to decline.
This podcast was recorded on 1 March 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist, Global Emerging Markets and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January global inflation report.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 29 February 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the global January CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on February 27, 2024.
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This week delivered an encouraging rise in Western European flash PMIs alongside signs that the Euro area consumer may be waking up. This is encouraging, but the survey also points to a structural malaise in German industry.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on 23 February 2024.
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The upside surprises to January US inflation need to be viewed in the context of considerable seasonal noise. That said, there is growing evidence globally that a phase of sharply slowing goods price inflation is ending. And details of this week’s reports suggest that part of the gap that lowered core PCE inflation to a 2%ar will not persist. On the growth front, it is reasonable to see January as a month in which a strong run of US consumer spending gains is ending. There is no sign as yet that the persistent weakness in spending in Europe and Japan is fading.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 16 February 2024.
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We enter the new year with the US and global economies displaying healthy momentum amid widespread optimism that a substantial ease by DM central banks has been delayed but not deferred. The sustainability of this year’s significant rise in risk appetite hinges on the realization of sustained growth and easing, a development that will be challenged if expectations for another step-down in core inflation are not realized.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 9 February 2024.
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China economists Haibin Zhu and Grace Ng join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s policy easing measures to stabilize growth. Using 2015-16 as a benchmark, a more modest scale of easing this time around reflects a shift in focus to high-quality growth, as well as more limited room for fiscal and monetary stimulus. To stabilize 2024 growth the government will need to step up policy efforts, including more forceful measures to stabilize the housing market. However, in order to address the supply-demand imbalance in the economy, and support medium term growth, the policy bias will need to shift from supporting production to consumption and domestic demand.
This podcast was recorded on February 08, 2024.
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© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Dan Silver joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the outlook for US core inflation and implications for the Fed. The trend for core inflation moderated in 2023 but the CPI and PCE measures sent differing signals about how close inflation was to target late last year. We expect core CPI run rates to slow to 2.9%ar in 1H24 alongside a modest firming in core PCE inflation to a still low 2.2%ar. If our forecast is correct, year-ago core PCE inflation could dip below 2.5% as soon as the February report (released in late March) and enable the Fed to start easing in May/June. However, with tailwinds from the unwinding of supply chain shocks fading, some softening in the labor market will likely still be needed to keep inflation close to the 2% target on a sustainable basis.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic and Policy Research
Daniel Silver, US Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on 6 Feb 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4617977-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4616731-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4609533-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Insufficient clarity on the disinflation path along with surprising strength in the economy and labor market keeps the Fed wanting more data before cutting rates. The global industrial sector remains sluggish for now but got some positive news in the January surveys. Amid the talk of soft-landing versus recession, the odds of no-landing are rising. Whether strengthening demand comes with enough supply to keep inflation in check is unclear.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 2 February 2024.
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Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the January jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 2, 2024.
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The growth picture is mixed but on balance shows the expansion ending last year on solid footing. Robust US GDP growth along with a welcome move up in the January flash DM PMIs supports our call for trend-like growth last quarter and this quarter. Global inflation is sliding but core remains elevated around 3%ar. For the Fed next week, at-target inflation calls for an early start to rate cuts but strong growth suggests no need to rush.
This podcast was recorded on 26 January 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the December CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024.
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Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies. Optimism around a soft landing persist, which would be constructive overall for frontier markets. Disinflation along with easing global financial conditions and a weaker dollar should enable frontier central banks to breathe easier. Moreover, frontiers might benefit from easier access to external funding. Yet, interestingly, at this stage, key aspects of the story regarding inflation and monetary policy, or external funding for frontiers have not changed. Many EM frontiers are still sitting on the sidelines tackling their own challenges, despite easier conditions.
Speakers
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4605248-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4598912-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4594568-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the recent shipping disruptions along the Suez and Panama Canals and the implications for global supply chains and inflation. We estimate the recent surge in container shipping costs––if they persist––could add 0.7%-pts to global core goods CPI (0.3%-pt to core). Most of that inflationary impulse is not likely to be felt until late 1Q or early 2Q, however, given lagged pass-through. If sustained, there could also be a hit to global industry on the downside, reinforcing our concerns that global industry is starting the year off weak. While nowhere near a COVID-era shock, even a modest rebound in goods inflation could render global core CPI inflation sticky around the 3% mark, especially if services inflation stays stuck above central bank targets as we project.
This podcast was recorded on January 23, 2024.
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© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
A strong consumer supports another solid quarterly gain in US GDP, but China imbalances are a concern and global industry continues to struggle. Central banks are acknowledging progress on disinflation but push back against 1H24 rate cuts.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 19 January 2024.
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This week’s main release – the US December CPI – aligns with our forecast that core inflation is stabilizing around a 3%ar as we turn into the new year. But the Fed’s target inflation indicator – core PCE – is running close to a 2%ar, fueling optimism about early easing. We continue to see the Fed remaining on hold through March and expect it to signal both progress and patience at the January FOMC meeting.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 12 January 2024.
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As we turn into 2024, the global economy continues to display resilience as well as sustained divergence in performance across sectors and markets. While optimism runs high that DM core inflation has slipped well below 3% and opens the door for early easing, we do not look for the coming months to send a clear signal to central banks. With goods price deflation set to fade, it will take time before a rebalancing of labor markets and normalization in service price inflation will be established.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the December jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 5 January 2024.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the November CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the near-term outlook for inflation and central banks.
This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4586495-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
An eventful week for data points to ongoing divergences: Sectorally (mfg weakness against resilient services) and geographically (US strength against EMU weakness). A similarly eventful week for central banks opens a another divide: While the Fed goes all-in on a soft-landing with a positive supply story and sees faster easing, the ECB turns pessimistic on European supply conditions and thus remains hawkish. The Weekender will return 5 January 2024. Until then, have a happy holiday.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 15 December 2023.
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There are numerous paths to lower rates, each with different macro outcomes. Next week’s meetings are expected to deliver a Fed still showcasing a soft-landing but underscoring its hawkish bias in the face of resilient growth, and an ECB and BoE that maintain-but-tone-down their hawkish bias given growth concerns and easing inflation pressures.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 8 December 2023.
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Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the November jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 8, 2023.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Katie Marney discuss EM’s macro resilience that has been evident in both growth and capital flows holding up well despite this year’s tightening in US financial conditions. Major emerging market economies are on track to grow 3.1% this year (ex China)–close to trend and easily surpassing our forecasts from this time last year. This striking resilience reflects solid macro fundamentals and balance sheets in addition to responsible fiscal and monetary management which should continue to hold in the coming quarters. As other macro risks will remain contained, our forecasts show that a clear path from resilience to strength exists for EM capital flows next year. The dollar and the Fed will guide the direction for EM investment flows and both point to a softening in financial conditions. If the data do not give the Fed sufficient comfort to ease without a recession, then EM could be tested, but such an episode could prove less disruptive than in the past.
This podcast was recorded on December 6, 2023.
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Speakers:
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Katie Marney and Nicolaie Alexandru discuss recent developments in the EM Edge economies, including the 2024 economic outlook. Growth is forecast to improve in about half of the EM Edge economies, mainly due to countries recovering from past crisis and shocks. Growth will improve despite tighter fiscal policy and higher interest rates. Inflation is forecast to fall that opens space for monetary easing, outside of Africa where FX depreciation, high inflation and financing strains are putting pressure on policymakers to maintain high rates. Strong official sector support mitigates risks to growth and funding risks for many frontiers. Against this backdrop, the external context will be important in guiding the outlook for frontiers next year.
This podcast was recorded on Dec. 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4569627-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4573288-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Ravi Balakrishnan, Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Greg Fuzesi, Morten Lund, and Allan Monks discuss their thoughts on the outlook for Western Europe. They talk through different scenarios for growth and inflation and the implications for central bank policy rate paths.
This podcast was recorded on 05 December 2023.
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Somewhat better news on both growth and inflation reduces the extreme tail risks of either a near-term break into recession or a rebound in inflation that requires further rate hikes. However, the mass of the likelihood distribution remains around our bottom-up soft-landing call and our top-down global view that sticky inflation requires high-for-long rates that in turn eventually drive a recession sometime over the next 4-6 quarters.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 December 2023.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in core inflation last quarter––from 4.7%ar in 2Q23 to 3.3%ar in 3Q23—global core inflation remained firm in October and the 3-month annualized rate has stabilized above 3%. This hints at stickiness in underlying inflation as a result of still firm services inflation which stands in stark contrast to the sharp slide in core goods inflation.
This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2023.
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Ravi Balakrishnan, Allan Monks, Francis Diamond discuss their thoughts on the recent Autumn Statement in the UK. They talk through its economic impact, what it reveals about the fiscal and broader policy landscape in the UK, and the implications for markets
This podcast was recorded on November 27, 2023.
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We approach the end of the year thankful for a resilient global expansion that has weathered the storm of numerous adverse shocks and rapid policy tightening. But we also know that, while some may be looking to the coming months with tunes of “I’m dreaming of a soft-landing” in mind, the pressures continue to build. We end the year with less conviction than when we started but lean in the direction of an earlier end to the expansion.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Softer-than-expected inflation along with resilient consumer spending in the US has reignited the Goldilocks bid. However, a closer look shows sufficient reason to be cautious and recognize that the inflation threat is not eliminated. At the same time, a China that keeps producing more than it demands will remain a global disinflationary force.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Greg Fuzesi joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent underpeformance in European growth and why we could see an improvement from here. Euro area growth has been stagnating over the past year and is running well below its estimated potential. One key factor behind this weakness is a striking turn towards caution on the part of European consumers evident in a household saving rate that has risen well above its pre-pandemic levels and stalling consumer spending.
Our view that the Euro area avoids a recession––we look for a 0.5% GDP gain this quarter and 0.6% in 2024––is predicated on an improvement in consumer spending in response to falling inflation, continued real income gains, and healthy balance sheets. However, the risk is that this year’s excessive consumer caution leads to a pullback in hiring. While the manufacturing sector has likely done better than often claimed, it is hard to ignore the weakness in the latest PMIs, which we still believe are a reliable indicator of the underlying growth trend in the Euro area. As a result, risks are on the downside but the case for a consumer-led improvement remains in place.
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4548204-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524205-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4524584-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The deceleration seen in the data of late raises questions. The latest US payrolls report points to a deceleration in hours, the October global PMI shows a step down in growth, and Western Europe is flirting with recession. Is this a loss of momentum to below potential growth in line with our forecast, or a more pernicious sign of something about to break? We believe the former.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 03 Nov 2023
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A week of softer-than-expected data leads some to see earlier recession and others to see Goldilocks. We temper fearful conclusions from a “soft” US payroll report but see more concern in the retreat in the October business surveys. Nevertheless, we maintain our call for near-term resilience.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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US real GDP boomed last quarter but the more meaningful signal was in the strong nominal income gains that will support growth into year-end. This contrasts with a disappointing flash October PMI reading from Europe, underscoring our call for weakness to continue. While we see the odds of a Dec hike as higher than current pricing, we expect next week’s Fed to deliver a hawkish hold to see more data. The BoJ is expected to edge closer to removing YCC bands in favor of a more flexible approach to JGB interventions (though not next week).
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Michael Feroli joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent tightening in financial conditions through the prism of the Fed staff’s new FCI-G index.
This podcast was recorded on October 25, 2023.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Dan Silver discuss the main takeaways from the September CPI reports, the outlook for coming months and how we see central banks responding to the incoming data. The latest reports suggest core inflation may be stabilizing amidst significant sectoral and regional divergence. On net, we’ve marked higher our 4Q23 global core inflation forecast to 3.2%q/q annualized (ex China and Türkiye) from 2.8% a month ago; this implies only limited easing from the 3Q pace. In the US, the details of the September report prompted an upward revision to US core inflation which we now expect to rebound to 3.6%ar this quarter from 2.8% in 3Q. While we continue to see the Fed on hold, we think the latest CPI report reinforces the idea that the FOMC will continue to communicate a tightening bias.
This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2023.
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The dynamic of resilient but divergent growth against a worrying backdrop of rising bond yields kicked into overdrive this week. The US and China both reported better-than-expected data that show a much stronger 3Q GDP outturn with solid September momentum into the current quarter. At the same time, the UST 10yr yield surged yet again lifting borrowing costs. Likely to skip November, the Fed has time to data-watch but strong growth and rising inflation skew risks to more tightening.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by CE-3 chief economist Jose Cerveira to discuss inflation developments in EM and the scope for central banks to cut rates in a more challenging global environment of higher US rates and a stronger dollar. Core inflation has fallen sharply, in some cases even faster than expected, bringing run rates close to central bank targets. But the disinflation trend appears overly reliant on core goods and the risk is that weaker EM currencies will now push inflation higher again, particularly in the countries where labor markets remain tight and/or fiscal policies turn more expansionary. Thus, while there is still space for EM central banks––especially those with high real rates and ample FX buffers ––to cut rates, it is only natural that they will be more cautious.
This podcast was recorded on October 17, 2023.
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The latest developments are a reminder that the return to normal still has a ways to go. In the US, core inflation bounced back in September—boosted by some of the stickier components. More broadly, the resilience in both inflation and growth is reinforcing the high-for-long stances of central banks even as financial and geopolitical shocks loom over the outlook.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Michael Hanson, Dan Silver, and Murat Tasci discuss the health of the US consumer. Recent benchmark GDP revisions imply more excess saving while liquid asset holdings and net worth have surged since the pandemic began. These should cushion US households against recent headwinds, and support our call for a continued, if soft, expansion next year.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson
Daniel Silver
Murat Tasci
This podcast was recorded on 12 October 2023.
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Amid plenty to worry about of late, we appreciate this week’s data showing a resilient global expansion. From our global PMI’s pointing to trend-like growth, to improvements in manufacturing bellwethers Asia and the US, to a robust payroll report in the US that comes with positive news on labor supply, the message is clearly positive. The risks from a weak Europe, rising bond yields, and a higher-for-longer Fed are not ignored, however.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2023.
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The jump in long-rates poses a risk of something breaking in the near-term and curtailing the expansion in the medium-term. Against a backdrop of strong US growth and resilient—though struggling—growth elsewhere, the central bank challenge to it balance these two forces while assuring inflation cools.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the August CPI reports and the inflation outlook for the coming quarter.
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2023.
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Amid a set of near-term headwinds from the oil shock, UAW strike, possible government shutdown the restart of student loan repayments, we maintain the US expansion continues. We have less conviction in Europe, were we now see GDP growth stalling amid a different set of headwinds. Making sense of this tension and how it resolves is important to the outlook. It is also a challenge faced by central banks trying to return inflation to target without generating a recession.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi, Joseph Lupton and Natasha Kaneva discuss the rise in oil prices since mid-year and its implications for global growth, inflation and monetary policy.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Natasha Kaneva, Global Commodities Research
This podcast was recorded on 21 Sept 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4516358-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4510542-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A week of better than expected data from the US and China support our view that the goods sector is lifting. The latest jump in the price of oil is a concern, however. Next week’s flash Sep PMIs are important to watch. The ECB delivered a dovish hike this week rather than the hawkish hold we see for the Fed next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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We maintain the global expansion has legs. While the latest (and upcoming) activity data show somewhat more moderation than anticipated, this comes after stronger readings. At the same time, inflation is cooling. Combined, the case is set for central banks to stay on hold and assess the outlook.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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This week’s US reports provide a number of comforting signals to the Fed, putting any doubt about a September pause to rest. The signal on demand was strong and we raised our 3Q23 GDP forecast to a 3.5%ar gain. But there was positive signals on labor supply, productivity and signs that excess demand for labor is moderating. The signal from this week’s PCE price report was also constructive, although it also highlights the difficulty in accurately assessing underlying inflation trends.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Daniel Silver
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the August jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on 01 Sept 2023
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Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. Core goods disinflation gathered steam in July on the back of manufacturing sector weakness, fading supply chain bottlenecks and excess China supply. Services inflation remains stickier and generally still above CB comfort zones. In the Euro area, we look for another relatively firm 0.36%m/m sa core HICP gain but now see the ECB on hold in September. With the Fed on hold, a number of EM CBs are set to keep easing in response to significant cooling in core inflation.
Speakers: Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Greg Fuzesi, European Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on August 24, 2023.
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Nora Szentivanyi is joined by China economists Grace Ng and Tingting Ge to discuss our recently published research note examining China’s deflation and its spillover to the rest of the world. China’s lockdowns and re-opening played a significant role in pandemic supply-chain dynamics that are responsible for much of the current slide in global core goods inflation. China’s policy supports have boosted supply more than demand resulting in domestic production running ahead of domestic demand; this imbalance has driven deflation in both domestic and export prices. The slide in China export prices, alongside CNY weakness, is evident in material declines in trading partner import prices. This unexpected development is a potent force aiding near-term global core goods disinflation which we expect to slide towards its pre-pandemic norm in coming months. Unless China’s policy mix changes to support demand more powerfully, there remain downside risks on near term growth and inflation.
This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2023.
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Incoming news supports our forecast for global growth resilience but the widening divide between US strength and China weakness generates risks that financial market stress might emerge. At the same time, the compression in profits which we think will eventually undermine corporate health is moving more slowly than anticipated increasing hopes for a soft-landing scenario.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
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Sin Beng Ong and Nora Szentivanyi discuss the near-term and longer-term prospects for Asia’s tech-sector. Following the sharp deceleration in tech-related output since 2Q22, a lift in production is evident, led by Korea and now Taiwan. With rising global demand for semiconductors driven increasingly by sector-specific and idiosyncratic forces, the tech cycle could become less synchronized with the broader industrial cycle. Over time, it could thus loose some of its bellwether properties for the global manufacturing sector. Beyond the near-term lift, rising tensions between the US and China also bear watching. Some of this shift is already evident in the decline in tech exports from Korea and Taiwan to China but also evident in the material reduction in the share of Asia ex. Japan in global semiconductor shipments for the first time since 1986. Given recent industrial policies in both the US and Europe, this shift could continue to proceed rapidly.
This podcast was recorded on August 17, 2023.
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Recent weeks have trimmed downside growth risks and upside inflation risks. This constructive alignment of data leads us to entertain the Goldilocks scenario. Next week’s growth data should help support the growth part of the story. But there is enough inflation still out there to question whether we settle above central bank comfort zones.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this episode of the Global Data Pod: Research Rap, Joe Lupton and Bruce Kasman discuss a recently released research note assessing the global spillover effects from this year’s positive (US) and negative (Euro area and China) growth shocks.
We quantify the historical impact of regional shocks filtered through the lens of GDP, our nowcasters (NRI), and our Forecast Revision Indexes (FRI). The results confirm that GDP shocks emanating from Europe and China have less of an impact on the global economy overall than those from the US. This owes in part to the powerful spillover of US to global financial conditions. As financial conditions are currently reinforcing the message that US shocks dominate, we expect the recently upward revised and more resilient US economy to set the tone for the global economy even as Western Europe and China are expected to continue to deliver sub-par growth.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483519-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Latin America economists Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano and Diego Pereira join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the region’s easing cycles that kicked off with bolder-than-expected rate cuts. While risks of more front-loaded easing, especially in Brazil, have risen, there are important divergence across the region. Mexico’s business cycle and policy response vis-à-vis other major LatAm countries in particular remains striking and overheating concerns point to renewed risks of a later start of the easing cycle. In all, despite significant disinflation and rate cuts priced in by markets, we see LatAm’s monetary policy stances remaining restrictive through next year. Much will depend on the sustainability of the disinflation process, fiscal policy responses to the economic slowdown as well as global developments.
This podcast was recorded on 8 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4480901-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483381-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4452217-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4462810-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4483346-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The July data releases reinforce our conviction that the global expansion has more life. The global all-industry PMI remains at a level consistent with trend-like growth while the US payroll report shows ongoing solid job gains. The momentum loss in both, however, is a reminder that growth paths are rarely smooth. Even if the near-term threats are fading, resilience in growth along with tight labor markets and inflation above central bank comfort zones keeps an observational equivalence between our “Boil the Frog” and “Goldilocks” scenarios.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on 4 August 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Mike Hanson is joined by EM economists Sajjid Chinoy, Vinicius Moreira and Katherine Marney to discuss the rising probability of a strong El Niño, which could push up global inflation, especially through food this year and into the next. The inflationary effect could be amplified through rising commodity prices. While El Niño thinks globally, its effects tend to be quite localized, with the most pronounced impacts in Latin America and parts of Asia. But the impacts have varied by episode, and the starting points for crops and energy look good this cycle.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson
Katherine Marney
Vinicius Moreira
Sajjid Chinoy
This podcast was recorded on August 2, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4461348-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4469697-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4463428-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for i,,mportant disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A week of data that trims both downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation are giving a bid to Goldilocks. As we noted in recent weeks, don’t fight the cyclical sweet spot we are entering. While Europe is the weak link, the US stands out this week with strong 2Q GDP and solid consumer spending in June. The Fed and ECB hike but turn data dependent, while the BoJ loosened its YCC.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views. In this month’s edition we highlight our recent research on the likely impact from El Niño and our forecast for US core inflation to prove sticky around 3%.
Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2023
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There is much to debate about whether global expansion will come to an end around the turn of the year, later next year, or even later (Goldilocks). Regardless, the near-term picture is looking more resilient and if so, a turn back up in the goods sector should help offset some moderation in service sector. Next week’s flash July PMIs will be key to watch, as will be the guidance coming out of the Fed, ECB, and BoJ.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The "Debatable" series provides a window on the discussions taking place within J.P. Morgan economic research on key issues in the outlook. Here Malcolm Barr moderates as Bruce Kasman argues the case for inflation to remain problematically elevated relative to central bank targets, while Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi argue that the recent inflation is surge is transitory and the policy actions already taken will push inflation back into central banks' comfort zones.
This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2023.
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June reports suggest that core inflation is now moving lower and risks to our forecast – that core inflation decelerates from a 5%ar in 1H23 to a 3.7%ar this quarter – are shifting to the downside. Much of the near-term downward pressure is coming from core goods inflation. The delayed unwind of supply chain price pressure appears to have taken hold and is combining with the disinflationary impulse associated with manufacturing sector weakness and falling China export prices.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Nora Szentivanyi
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The service sector remains a growth engine at midyear, despite clear signs that normalization lift is beginning to fade. With manufacturing survey still pointing to weakness, this engine will need to continue to be the primary source of global growth this quarter.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli, Economic Research
Samantha Azzarello, Global Research
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and Joseph Lupton take stock of the rise in household (and overall private sector) debt service ratios in the wake of the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021-22 and discuss what to expect from here. While the projected increases in DSRs this year look manageable on the whole, there is significant variation across countries: the most interest rate-sensitive are seeing a faster pass-through; differences in leverage and the size of rate hikes also matter. Whereas many in DM have yet to see a significant rise in DSRs, the bulk of EM’s rise is likely behind us as EM central banks started hiking earlier and are already shifting towards rate cuts even as DM remains in tightening mode.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Joseph Lupton, Global Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4444911-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4446781-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While our modal views on the global outlook are not changing much, risks of imminent recession are fading and the likelihood of an intra-cycle lift should not be ignored. The goods sector is most primed for a bounce in this case, but the fate of the medium-term outlook will rest more on service sector normalization and the broader sensitivities to past policy tightening.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping our views.
This podcast was recorded on June 28, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4447959-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Our midyear outlook published this week maintains that a recession is not imminent but will take time to manifest as rates rise further. However, the data out this week from the ugly flash June PMIs across the developed markets to another high US claims reading raises the risk that, rather than a distinct break, the expansion is grinding into a recession more gradually but sooner than expected.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Gabriel Lozano to discuss how Mexico is benefitting from the reshuffling of global trade and investment, primarily outside of China, and how much further this trend could run.
While Mexico has caught up with China in terms of its US import share, domestic factors including institutional hurdles, low productivity and competitiveness will likely limit the reach and depth of “near-shoring” despite Mexico’s cost and location advantages.
This podcast was recorded on June 21, 2023.
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for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Central banks are signaling a resolve to continue raising policy rates and a “boil the frog” scenario is becoming increasingly likely. In this regard, the Fed delivered a pause but guided towards two further rate hikes, pointing to a hike in July as a reasonable possibility. The ECB was even stronger in guidance towards a further hike next month and the Bank of England will likely hike and signal more to come next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While rate decisions look relatively well signaled at next week’s G3 meetings, forward guidance is in flux. The Fed’s pause will be hawkish and likely accompanied by a rise in the dots to show an additional hike this year. The ECB is likely to eschew strong guidance, keeping uncertainty high about where they will pause. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC band but signal that the start of rate normalization is not near.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Nicolaie Alexandru and Katherine Marney to discuss vulnerabilities of the EM Edge economies to higher interest rates, slower growth and lower oil prices.
Amid higher global interest rates, several EM Edge economies have lost market access and have turned to multilateral funding. Tighter funding is coming against the backdrop of wide fiscal deficits, larger debt stocks and lower reserves stocks. Declining oil prices also offer mixed benefits to the EM Edge group as global growth moderates. Against this backdrop, efforts to improve debt sustainability have become even more pressing.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Global Economic Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on June 8, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4426761-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428035-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4420830-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton, Senior Global Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on June 5, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4429734-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4428335-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4405286-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
From downside risks in the US and upside risks in Europe and China just a few months ago, we now are seeing fading tail risks in the US (banks stress and debt ceiling) and improving data pointing to upside risks while recent data have taken out the upside in Europe and China. Although we still see the Fed pausing this month, the bias to hike will remain.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Although zero-COVID and its removal have been dominant drivers of China growth over the past year, the outlook hinges on a recovery in business sentiment which has been depressed by a housing correction and a set of government policies which had generated private sector uncertainty. We expect those drags to gradually fade, and the recovery in business spending from depressed levels should be an important source of China growth.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Jahangir Aziz
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
With the full set of April CPI releases to hand, Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss global inflation developments and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi, Sajjid Chinoy and Sonja Keller discuss EM’s debt dynamics and why boosting GDP growth is so crucial to achieving post-pandemic debt sustainability. While some of the pandemic surge in EM debt ratios has been pared back in last two years, reducing them further will be much more challenging in an environment of slowing nominal GDP growth and rising interest rates.
This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395071-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4326109-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402859-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263350-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We downgrade our current quarter forecast for China and recognize the looming risks associated with extending the US debt ceiling. But the overall message from the global economy is one of still solid growth amidst early signs that a weak manufacturing sector is poised to recover. The Fed and other central banks are inclined to pause but we would resist describing these moves as the end of the tightening cycle.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week’s news of tightening US bank lending standards and a sharp rise in unemployment insurance claims fuels worries about an impending recession. However, beneath the surface, there are reasons to fade the downsides somewhat. More importantly, April activity data are shaping up for a solid bounce after softness late last quarter—echoing the global survey data and US payrolls report already in hand. While we still see recession taking hold eventually, we also maintain our call that its not going to come in the next few months.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi, Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson discuss the tightening in US, Euro area and EM credit conditions through the lens of the latest bank lending surveys, the implications for the growth outlook and central bank decisions. While these surveys show that that credit conditions did tighten further last quarter and loan demand continued to fall, the moves were not as severe as some might have feared. Indeed, against a backdrop of continued resilience in recent activity data, the latest surveys do not indicate an imminent break in growth. Rather, we expect this drag to accumulate over the year, contributing to a mild year-end recession in the US in our base case.
Speakers
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Greg Fuzesi, Economic and Policy Research
Michael Hanson, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 10 May 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4409223-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4408145-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4402074-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The Fed moved towards a pause this week as it sees clouds on the horizon related to bank stress and the debt ceiling deadline. But the data continues to emphasize that the battle to lower is far from done.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Feroli
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist
Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy
This podcast was recorded on May 5, 2023.
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the April payrolls report.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss the launch of our natural language processor (NLP) tracking Fed, ECB and BoE communication. The output of this analysis is synthesized in the J.P. Morgan Hawk-Dove Score (HDS) that generates a deep archive of central bank policy statements and speeches. It tracks well the generally perceived shifts in central bank attitudes over the past few decades. At this week’s meetings the HDS highlights the dovish tilt at both central bank press conferences. For the Fed, the HDS fell to its least hawkish stance in nearly a year. For the ECB, the press conference maintains a more hawkish stance than last year’s meetings.
This podcast was recorded on May 4, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4395521-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Despite downside surprises, there is plenty of constructive signals in this week’s set of data releases. Global GDP growth last quarter is tracking 1%-pt above potential and 2%-pt above start-of-year expectations. While momentum is slowing, the sources of lift still point to resilience this quarter. Next week’s Fed and ECB to deliver another round of hikes.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi,
Michael Hanson
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the global CPI data for March and the outlook for 2Q and beyond.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4392511-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4385270-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A robust 1Q23 is contrasted with signs of momentum loss through the quarter. However, while some data (US initial claims) raise concern, the latest data point to ongoing resilience. Combined with banking sector stress looking to be contained, the odds of the “boil the frog” scenario are increased and we look for another round of rate hikes in May from the major central banks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Uncertainty following the recent credit shock has led some central banks to pause and others to slow — but sticky core CPI, still-tight labor markets, and elevated inflation expectations are keeping the pressure on. Some signs of cooling (but not cracking) are emerging in the US, whereas we now expect an even stronger rebound in China and see resilience in the latest Euro area data.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
First-quarter global activity looks to have strengthened materially and, while we are looking for a deceleration in the current quarter, the March surveys are still pointing to strong momentum. Ahead of tomorrow’s US payroll report, we are expecting a slowing in job growth but to a still-solid pace. Combined with inflation that continues to run hot in most corners of the world, and in the US where next week’s core CPI is projected to have accelerated for a fourth straight month in March, central banks are caught between overheating and a potential credit crunch.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Curation and Strategy, discuss the March payrolls report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global expansion is looking even more resilient than expected, raising questions about the likelihood of our call for a US recession and global slowdown later this year. With global GDP growth over the past two quarters tracking a full %-point strong than expected in our November outlook, the profit margin compression we see as a catalyst for recession later this year has yet to start. The latest credit shock could be a game changer, but healthy fundamentals are likely to temper the drag. While headwinds are building and supports are fading, either greater financial stress or more central bank tightening may be needed to take steam out of the expansion.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The risk of a meaningful tightening in credit conditions raises the odds of a US recession and potentially a global one as well. However, it is unclear whether the fallout from recent events is a newly-added headwind or a consequence of central banks’ intended slowdown. For now, growth and inflation are running hotter than expected even if the credit shock is also larger than expected. Consequently, forecasts remain unchanged even if tail risks have fattened.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Feroli to discuss the Fed’s response to the recent banking stress, historical parallels and the likely economic fallout. A rough estimate is that slower loan growth by mid-size banks could subtract 0.5-1% off the level of GDP in coming quarters. We believe this is broadly consistent with our outlook of a Fed-induced recession later this year. The Fed isn’t done, in our view, and we look for another 25bp hike this week, and a final hike in May.
This podcast was recorded on Mar. 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4361113-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Elevated financial market stress and uncertainty have arisen against a backdrop of sticky high inflation, still-tight labor markets, and recent upward revisions to growth in the US and China for this quarter. The ECB reacted to this quandary by hiking 50bp as previously signaled and maintaining a tightening bias, but removing any formal guidance and noting its available tools to address market dysfunction. We expect a broadly similar message from the Fed as it hikes 25bp next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
As we look to the coming spring, the data is anything but clear. This week’s news points to ongoing resilience while Chair Powell’s comments underscored that this may be too much of a good thing. Next week’s US CPI report looks to be hot yet again, moving the needle toward a 50bp Fed hike. The ECB is on deck for next week and has already pointed to 50bp. Also up next week will be the key China activity data for Jan-Feb.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The news on the week points to even greater resilience in the global expansion and more upside surprises on inflation. What’s a worried central bank to do? With a number of key data releases and central bank meetings coming up in March, the various scenarios of our outlook are considered: from soft-landings, to boiling frogs, to wrathful old testament central banks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Jahangir Aziz to discuss China’s reopening and spillovers to the rest of EM. A consumption and services-led recovery in China points to a more muted spillover than typically implied by China’s headline growth. But if the rebound and reduced growth volatility spur a positive shift in business sentiment, the full impact can be larger than the sum of the parts.
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Jahangir Aziz, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on March 1, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4341171-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this week’s Research Rap of the Global Data Pod, Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Alex Wise to discuss our recent special report on public sector debt sustainability. After gradually rising 35%-pt in the 30yrs since the mid-1970s, government debt in the developed markets has jumped roughly 50%-points in just 15 years. A framework is considered for assessing debt sustainability, while thoughts are provided exploring the path ahead.
SpeakersBruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Alex Wise, Long-term Strategy
This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4340654-0.pdffor more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Another week of data showing resilient growth—even strong in the case of the US—along with upside surprises in inflation add to the risks that the most rapid global hiking cycle in over forty years has longer to run. While we are willing to fade some of the signal in the punchy January data, the pressure is on for February data to show a return to the path of moderating growth and inflation in line with the goals of central banks to generate a soft-landing.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nigeria faces a pivotal election this coming Saturday where voters will choose a new president. Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa with vast oil wealth, but years of mismanagement have worsened imbalances and it has failed to fully benefit from the commodity windfall. From multiple exchange rate regimes to Central Bank quasi-fiscal spending to ballooning fiscal expenditure to high inflation, the next president will have a full in-tray. But based on the polling there is a chance that this election represents a break from the past.
In this edition of the Global Data Pod, Katie Marney is joined by Gbolahan Taiwo to discuss Nigeria’s election, what the polls say, the tall task ahead, and policy priorities for the next president.
Speakers:Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on February 22, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4337030-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309655-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4263687-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Bruce Kasman to discuss why the widely held that monetary policy is already restrictive may be wrong. Central banks have been downshifting the pace of rate hikes based on the view neutral real rates remains close to zero in developed markets. But dramatic changes to the cyclical backdrop following the pandemic shock, along with the erosion of policy credibility and higher risk premia in several EMs, point towards higher neutral policy rates. Absent a recession taking hold this year, we expect views about the appropriate level of policy rates to shift higher. But if the dramatic rate hikes (400bp in DM and nearly 500bp in EM) generate a recession then the neutral rate rise will be obscured for some time.
The path to the next recession is hard to tie down, but risks are skewed in the direction of this dynamic taking longer and requiring higher rates than markets expect. Incoming data suggest that the path may not incorporate any meaningful pause but instead reflect a gradual but sustained adjustment to lean against still-elevated inflation risks. In this scenario, central banks may not be intending to create a downturn—but that risk will increase as they continue to tighten monetary policy rates above what is currently priced in markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Managing Director, Chief Economist
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on February 21, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4334724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The latest data show a US (and global) economy that is not only proving more resilient than some had feared but also more inflationary. The odds have risen for an expansion that may be in need of central banks stepping on the breaks more than we had expected and even more than markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Ayako Fujita and Benjamin Shatil to discuss the latest developments in the Bank of Japan’s path towards monetary policy normalization. We do not expect the new BoJ nominations to materially affect the timing of YCC removal which we still see taking place around mid-2023. However, rising demand-side pressures on prices and growing market pressures suggest risks are for an earlier move.
Our forecast also anticipates an eventual exit from negative interest rates (NIRP) by 2024. The BoJ’s shift will have important implications for capital flows and the yen as Japanese investors continue to rotate investments from foreign assets back to domestic debt.
This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332950-0.pdf https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4310608-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4316195-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We continue to process January activity readings which point to the US expansions remaining intact while the China reopening bounce gathers. But this week’s news was the surprising firmness in January core CPI readings. The message of positive growth and inflation news should be reinforced by next week’s US reports where we look for a rise in core CPI of 0.5% m/m and a 2.2% bounce in retail sales.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss an improved macro landscape for EM and what it means for growth, capital flows and monetary policy. The fading of key near-term headwinds has led to a strong start for EM capital flows, and we believe these sources of support, including China’s re-opening, disinflation, and reduced near-term recession risks can last a while. Prospects of a late 2Q Fed pause, weaker USD and better global growth should open up space for EM central banks to ease monetary policy this year. Sustained strength in the US labor market poses a risk to this view. But provided inflation eases as we expect, and barring a re-pricing of the US dollar, we think the macro backdrop can remain supportive for EM.
SpeakersNora Szentivanyi, Economic Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325660-0.pdf, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4296890-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4316594-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4321526-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
On this week’s Global Data Pod Edge, our focus is on Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain. Our economists covering the region had one full day of meetings in each of them. They met with authorities and local companies. The podcast discusses recent developments and 2023 outlook for this set of GCC economies.
The mood in the area remains positive after a strong year which saw high growth thanks to the rebound in hydrocarbon production as well as a strong and resilient non-hydrocarbon sector performance. On top of that, the region experienced a limited amount of inflationary pressure, well below anything seen in other Edge countries or around the entire globe. Hydrocarbon prices are expected to continue to be supportive but surely some differentiation remains amongst countries and expectations for their 2023 performance. We invited two of our Edge Economists, Anatoliy Shal and Francesco Arcangeli, who recently returned from a business trip from the area to discuss their impressions.
SpeakersNicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Francesco Arcangeli, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Anatoliy A Shal, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on February 6, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4322630-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After a few weeks of data fanning worries of a near-term recession, this week’s activity data provided relief. The global January PMIs improved broadly across countries and sectors. In the US, a gangbuster payroll report belied a number of more anecdotal reports suggesting labor market retrenchment. Also, the US consumer looks to have opened their wallets in January for motor vehicles. Not all is rosy, as the industry data out of Asia continue to be ugly and the risks outside of China are skewed to the downside. News on capex spending is also softening. Moreover, while US and European resilience is welcomed, too much strength reinforces the risk of more aggressive rate hikes that risk recession later.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The EM Edge economies are a diverse group across the globe—from investment-grade countries, including some large oil-exporting economies, to sovereigns long since in financial distress. In between are many frontier markets with varying degrees of vulnerabilities. Understanding external financing needs and sources is a critical piece of the analytical puzzle for such economies, where funding needs, external and domestic, act as binding constraints that shape economic policies.
This year brings signs that several sources of stress that have buffeted emerging markets could be ebbing: global food and energy inflation are slowing. Reopening in China may help offset downside risks to growth elsewhere. Signs that inflation has peaked in the US have raised hopes for a soft landing that would allow the Fed to relax its hawkish stance. Important risks remain, however, including a scenario in which disinflation stalls and global central banks continue tightening. With this in mind, we discuss external funding needs across Edge economies this year and invite two of our Edge Economists, Gbolahan Taiwo and Jin Tik Ngai, to dive more into Egypt and Pakistan.
SpeakersNicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Gbolahan Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Jin Tik Ngai, Emerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on 30 January 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4309915-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4306281-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Next week will deliver three eventful central bank meetings as we expect the Fed, ECB, and BoE to continue to hike but also provide guidance on the path ahead while also maintaining optionality. Nevertheless, with rates restrictive, central banks have become more data sensitive. In this regard, next week will also deliver a set of key data on growth, inflation, and labor markets.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Dan Silver to discuss the 1H23 global inflation outlook. We anticipate that the slump in manufacturing, fading commodity price shocks and easing supply bottlenecks will drop global goods inflation to 1%ar in 1H23. Regionally, we expect downward pressure to be concentrated in Europe where the benefits of the unwind in the natural gas price shock is substantial. Emerging markets should also see a large drop in goods inflation, helped by a rebound in EM currencies and lagged effects of supply chain normalization. While China’s re-opening is a key reflationary impulse, we do not expect it to disrupt the near-term global disinflation trend.
The drop in goods inflation bolsters the case for a central bank pause. In Emerging markets, central banks are already moving to the sidelines, and we see eight countries cutting policy rates this year. The bar for a pause is higher in DM and will also depend on labor market and wage developments; we see the Fed hiking through 1Q23 and the ECB into 2Q23..
Speakers:
Nora Szentivanyi, Economic and Policy ResearchRaphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy ResearchDaniel Silver, Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on January 24, 2023.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4311009-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4310687-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4302639-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4306146-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Having trimmed near-term recession risks recently, this week delivered stronger than expected data from China and a reassessment upward of our European outlook. However, not all is up. Disappointing US retail sales and IP data raise some concerns, but we are inclined to fade this given still-solid fundamentals. Fed speak this week shows growing comfort with 25bp, while hawkish comments from the ECB suggests a longer road to terminal. The BoJ left YCC unchanged as we expected, but disappointed markets.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Michael Feroli, J.P. Morgan’s Chief U.S. Economist, is joined by Bob Cusack, Editor in Chief of The Hill, for a discussion on policy, politics and the U.S. economy. Among the topics discussed, the two explore what implications the new leadership in Congress could have for government spending, and also take an early look at the 2024 presidential election.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Bob Cusack
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After a week in which growth prospects for 1H23 improved, inflation prospects improved as well this week. The disinflation trends that began in early 4Q22 continued through yearend as supply conditions look to be moving into better alignment with demand—a key condition that central banks need to see. But the journey has further to run, and the improvements will only be enough to get policy rates to hold in the coming months—not to start cutting. China re-opening is a positive for growth but the inflation impulse to the rest of the world will be keenly watched.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Since the last JPMTV in mid-December, the news has been mixed but on balance shaves the risks of a near-term global recession, and boosts slightly the odds of a soft-landing while leaving a two-thirds chance of a recession by late-23/early-24. China’s COVID-drag looks worse but also points to a sooner-rebound, while stronger US expenditure data point to a more robust 4Q22. We are not out of the woods as the manufacturing sector looks particularly fragile and the Fed remains geared to stamping out inflation risks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A busy week of central bank meetings largely delivered on expectations, with the Fed and ECB slowing the pace of hikes to 50bp but underscoring their hawkish forward guidance. With Fed/ECB projected inflation running well above our forecasts next year, one question will be how they will respond if inflation undershoots those hawkish views. A special guest, Chief China economist Haibin Zhu, joins the call to discuss the rapidly changing China outlook. This will be the last episode for the year. Happy holidays to all.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
Haibin Zhu
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
China appears to be relaxing its zero-COVID policy which will eventually open the door for a substantial growth rebound. However, a starting point of low immunity and limited health care capacity points to a bumpy growth path in 2023. It’s impact on the global economy depends on two key linkages – the impact of stronger demand on commodity prices and the impact of rising COVID cases on supply.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The near-term is characterized by a number of cross-currents, including brewing concerns about China, but the balance remains one of resilience. This week’s November PMIs paint a grim picture for global industry but other data show upside risk to the current-quarter growth outlook in the US and Europe. Global inflation is past its peak but remains elevated. The growth/inflation message reinforces our call for further rate hikes followed by an extended hold, but the risks around this are debated.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We probe key issues raised in our recently published 2023 global economic outlook. In the face of near-term risks to China and Western Europe we continue to see the global economy to move forward on the back of fading supply-shocks that lowers inflation and fading DM fiscal drags. This will not, however, likely deliver a soft-landing scenario and we discuss the alternative scenarios in which the US and global economy could slip into recession over 2022-23.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
Greg Fuzesi
Jahangir Aziz
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After a late start to the hiking cycle, central banks have put in place a policy path that is expected to generate a sharp slowing in global growth—and a US recession—that will contain inflation pressures. This will take several quarters however as consumers are getting a near-term boost from fading inflation. The benefits are not felt evenly, with the US tracking strong growth his quarter, Europe expected to slide into recession, and China’s homegrown headwinds holding growth to below potential.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While not overreacting to one month of data, a welcome deceleration in US inflation this week points to both a consumer that is set for a marked improvement in purchasing power growth as well as a Fed that can slow its pace of hikes and eventually conclude by early next year. We maintain that recession risks are more of a concern for 2H23 rather than coming quarters, but recent indications of a sharp tightening in bank lending conditions raises some concern. China also remains a downside risk.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The latest PMIs are consistent with the global economy settling back to the lackluster pace of growth is has averaged this year, but the momentum-loss is a concern even if tempered by further signs of ongoing strength in labor markets. The Fed pivoted but in the hawkish direction this week as did ECB rhetoric, while a more nuanced message is coming from other central banks.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Katherine Marney to discuss the recently launched EM capital flows monitor, a new tool for tracking and nowcasting capital flows in Emerging Markets EM capital flows have become more diversified in the last ten years. FDI and loans carry more weight. Portfolio flows have weakened. Resident flows have become as large as non-resident flows. This is starkly different from the pre-2013 era, when resident outflows were small and capital flow dynamics were largely driven by foreign portfolio flows.
This podcast was recorded on October 31, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4237103-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4247869-0.pdf, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4120737-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A macro pivot is underway with US and China GDP having bounced back last quarter after contracting in 1H, and with Europe now sliding into a recession this quarter. However, inflation remains high and surprising to the upside in both the US and Europe, tempering any chance of a material central bank pivot. Next week, we expect more hikes from the Fed, BoE, Norges, and RBA. If our forecasts are right, the global hiking cycle comes to an end by 1Q23. But this will require a significant moderation in inflation.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Mike Feroli, Greg Fuzesi and Jose Cerveira to discuss recent trends in inflation expectation surveys across the US, Euro area and CE-3, and what these mean for monetary policy outlooks.
While longer-term consumer inflation expectations have generally not become unmoored, short-term measures have been more elevated of late. Even as global headline inflation has moderated in recent months, underlying pressures remain intense. A particular concern is that elevated inflation could get embedded into wage- and price-setting behavior, making it much more challenging—and ultimately more costly—to return inflation to target.
The amount of economic pain needed to get inflation back down to central bank targets varies by country and region, but a painless disinflation is unlikely anywhere. The large shocks working their way through economies are not yet giving a clear sense of where inflation will ultimately settle. Survey measures of price and household income expectations, as well as actual pricing decisions by corporates will thus be important to track, with large impacts on the outlook for monetary policy.
This podcast was recorded on Oct 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4225276-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4221745-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4154366-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4228631-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4223938-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Global policy rates outside China/Turkey are up over 300bp in the past year. Beyond the direct impact of higher borrowing costs on growth, the risks are that something breaks in the financial system. From the GFC to the Taper Tantrum, central banks have learned a lot and the rapid response to the pandemic was a case in point. But the UK flap is also a reminder that there are unknown unknowns to worry about. For now, central banks are focused in inflation—to be underscored by next week’s expected 75bp ECB hike and even a possible shift in tone from the BoJ.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita, Benjamin Shatil and Yuka Mera. We expect the BoJ to adjust its YCC policy in March next year, Kuroda’s last meeting before the end of his term, alongside broadening inflation momentum. But until that time, policy faces a tension between maintaining a functioning JGB market and limiting the impact of dovish monetary policy on currency stability. We do not expect the BoJ to provide any advance signal ahead of tweaking policy, but think every meeting from hereon is probably live. We do not expect a change at the October meeting, but nor is it a zero-probability event.
This podcast was recorded on Oct 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4231649-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4223217-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4217274-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Recession risks abound and the mood at this week’s IMF meetings in Washington D.C. was downbeat as people expect central banks to keep pressing the break until something actually breaks in the expansion. But timing matters and the near-term drop in headline inflation is pointing to resiliency more so than fragility. While financial tightening risks morphing into outright stress in areas that are hard to foresee, the biggest risk remains a central-bank induced recession that takes shape much further down the road (like 12-18 months from now).
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The latest surveys for September show the global expansion slowing but continuing. In the US, strong job growth (albeit a moderation) makes the case for a 75bp hike at the next Fed meeting.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on October 7, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Turmoil in UK markets this week raises the specter of broadening financial stress beyond its shores. We fade this concern owing to the lack of imbalances that tend to amplify such shocks. However, those same strong fundamentals keep us focused on the key threat to the global expansion: central banks that need to press the breaks a lot more than anticipated.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Central banks continue to tighten aggressively with the DM moving aggressively and more muted action from EM central banks. But the pressure for more is there with labor markets having yet to show signs of easing and EM central banks leaning on FX intervention to limit their currency depreciation.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week we downgraded the UK outlook but see scope for more policy support across Europe; conversely, better August activity data in China do not quell our concerns over COVID lockdowns and a weak real estate sector. Another 75bp move by the Fed headlines a busy upcoming week of central bank hiking. We now see the Fed’s policy rate reaching 4.25% early next year.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While Europe remains the weakest link in the global outlook, rapidly rising natural gas inventories combined with continued large doses of fiscal support are tempering downside tail risks. Risks remain skewed to the downside in China. Against this backdrop, major DM central banks are on track to hike at the fastest pace this quarter since 1980. With the inflation threat still unvanquished, more hikes are to come.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We are increasingly confident that the global economy will avoid a recession. This owes largely to improvements in the US where a resilient labor market looks set to combine with falling inflation to boost spending. By contrast, surging inflation in Europe—which surprised to the upside this week—is expected to spark a recession. And in China, headwinds are building and we lower the outlook. Against this backdrop, the Fed and ECB are still focused on getting rates above or at least back to neutral respectively.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
No mind tricks in Fed Chair Powell’s brief but forceful message that more restrictive policy is coming and the Fed will not prematurely reverse course. With another solid US jobs report expected next week, we see the Fed hiking 75bp in September. This week also saw us put a deeper recession and higher inflation into our Euro area outlook, whereas more fiscal support in China reduces the downside risks to growth there.
Speakers:
Michael Hanson
Daniel Silver
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week’s data highlight regional divergences: US IP and retail sales were good, China’s domestic demand and real estate investment were not, and a surge in natural gas prices risks deeper downturns across Europe. Elevated inflation should keep DM central banks hiking further – we added 75bp to our BoE call for this year and look for Chair Powell to stress the Fed’s focus on getting inflation down at Jackson Hole next week.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
July CPI readings signify that a significant slowing of global inflation momentum is underway, largely due to falling energy prices. Softer demand and easing supply pressures should help bring down core as well. But with natural gas prices surging, Europe may stand out with limited disinflation and a contraction by year-end.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Daniel Silver to discuss our inflation forecasts that see Euro area inflation remaining elevated in 2H22 in contrast to significant moderation in the US and many EM economies. High inflation, boosted by surging natural gas prices, plays a key role in our forecast for Western Europe to slide into a mild recession in 2H22 whereas easing commodity price inflation should boost household purchasing power elsewhere.
The July CPI reports likely mark the beginning of this phase of inflation divergence that also augurs a rotation toward weaker relative European growth. We now expect Euro area inflation to remain at a 9%ar this quarter, boosted significantly by upward pressure on energy and food prices. At the same time, we are expecting a large drop in US CPI energy to lower headline gains to 0.2-0.3%m/m. A moderation in food price pressures should be significant in holding EM CPI gains to 0.3-0.4%m/m in coming months‑‑half their average rate of increase in 1H22.
This podcast was recorded on August 3, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4157249-0 , www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4161891-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The US contracted again last quarter, while the Euro area bounced more than expected. Central to our call that the US avoids recession is that businesses keep hiring (claims remain below 275k). However, we now see the Euro area slipping into a mild recession later this year. Both the Fed and ECB to keep hiking, though growth risks are making them more data-dependent.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Malcolm Barr, and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss our recent forecast revisions which sees Western Europe sliding into recession during 2H22.
Speakers Bruce Kasman, Economic and Policy Research
Joseph Lupton, Economic and Policy Research
Malcolm Barr, Economic and Policy Research
Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 27, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4155520-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Further evidence of a loss in growth momentum in the US and Western Europe reinforces the message that recession risks are elevated. Central banks continue to hike rate and we look for an additional 75bp move from the Fed next week. However, there will likely be a greater sensitivity to both sides of the risk distribution as policy rates reach neutral levels and as labor markets weaken.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast we review how our economic outlook for Latin America has evolved as we pass the midpoint of 2022. While we remain wary of challenges related to high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and significant political and electoral uncertainty, the slowdown in growth we expect has been pushed back, helped in part by terms of trade gains. However, the risks around global recession also put downside risk to our LatAm outlook, even raising the specter of financial stability concerns in some parts of the region.
Speakers:
Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Cassiana Fernandez, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Gabriel Lozano, EM, Economics Research
Diego Pereira, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on July 19, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4124443-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4148037-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
More inflation in the US puts more stress on consumers and on the Fed. China hole gets bigger but so too does the rebound. On net, we leave the week seeing risks of recession largely unchanged: under 50% but not much. Anxiety builds ahead of an expected restart of Russian gas flows to Europe next Thursday, while next Friday’s flash PMIs to flag further momentum loss.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on July 15, 2022.
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Behind welcomed resilience, the data flow of late reveals a vulnerable global expansion at midyear. While strong US June payrolls should disabuse those thinking the US is already in recession, it raises concerns about long it can last given soft GDP growth and the resulting drag on profits. Similarly, a strong global PMI report for June masks underlying momentum loss excluding a robust reopening bounce in China.
Speakers: Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
After a weak first-half, unrelenting adverse shocks look set to reduce global GDP growth in the second half to remain below trend. The data flow this week—from disappointing news on the US consumer to a grim PMI report on global industry—underscore that momentum loss at midyear. With the bar on growth lowered, the next rung for downside risks to flag is a global recession. Short of this materializing, the Fed is likely to stay the course until reaching 3% on rates before turning somewhat more growth-sensitive.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In the wake of impressive resilience through 1H22, the global expansion looks increasingly brittle at midyear. While activity data from Asia show an encouraging bounce back from earlier pandemic drags, relentless inflation headwinds threaten to break the back of the consumer in the US and Europe. Confidence has dropped to forty year lows in Europe, while US and European flash PMIs took a larger than expected dip in June—with a surprising decline in the service sector PMI belying the strength of the much-anticipated re-opening dynamic. Next week’s inflation and survey readings to further underscore downside risks.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
China is rebounding smartly in May, and spillovers from the downturn remain mild. But inflation is surging everywhere and this is damping growth in the goods sector. The Fed upped its hiking pace to 75bp this week with another likely to come, guiding to a restrictive stance before yearend. In doing so while also now forecasting a rising unemployment rate suggests a singular focus on inflation and less of a growth-put than in the past—at least until inflation moderate.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Arindam and Sin Beng discuss some of the key drivers of the macro narrative in EM Asia for 2H22, which we have coined – on the macro side “Mercury Rising” – and for strategy it’s going “From acute to chronic.” We talk through some the salient drivers underlying these macroeconomic views and their implications for FX and rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on Jun 16, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4119405-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4121834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week’s news centered around continued upward inflation pressure and the response from those central banks with still accommodative stances. The ECB made a significant shift this week and now looks likely to hike 125bp before year end. The RBA is also front-loading its rate hikes with the Fed set to deliver a 50bp hike with the promise of more to come. This dynamic is unlikely to change until growth slows materially, a development we now expect for the US during 2H22.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The latest data continue to show encouraging resilience to the headwinds weighing on growth in 1H22. Strong labor markets are supporting consumers while factory output is humming along outside of China and Russia. Although the downside risks remain material for the near-term, the medium-run risk is shifting to a 2H22 rebound with upside inflation pressures that require more central bank normalization than currently expected.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The latest data underscore the remarkable resilience of the global expansion, a testament both to the bounce-back potential still levering growth as well as the robustness of the fundamentals. However, with the headwinds intensifying rather than fading as we have hoped for, the risks to 2H22 are skewing down. Along with a global overview, we do a deeper dive on the US consumer and the Fed with US economist Peter McCrory.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Peter McCrory
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Featured in this podcast are Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The recent significant cost pressures have hit firms in Japan, but Japan’s CPI inflation remains low, with limited cost passthrough. This is particularly notable among SMEs, as large companies have forced them to limit price increases. To address this, the government is creating policy to enforce cost passthrough, such as changing legal operation standards and strengthening its monitoring system. Such moves likely will help Japan break out of its long-standing low-inflation equilibrium. We thus expect the trend of core inflation (ex. food and energy) will rise from a pre-pandemic three year average of 0.3%oya to around 1.2% by the end of 2022. However, even with this acceleration, inflation still remains well below the BoJ target of 2%, and therefore we don’t expect a policy shift from the BoJ. If a positive cycle can be created in which a rise in firms’ pricing power leads to higher wages, which in turn raises consumers’ purchasing power, we would expect to see a further shift up in core inflation, leading to a policy shift from the BoJ.
This podcast was recorded on May 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4099664-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The data this week underscore a worsening headwind from China and a continued purchasing power drag from rising refined energy prices. However, it also showcases the strength and resilience of the consumer. Despite rising market jitters, we (and more importantly the Fed) have conviction the expansion continues.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While high inflation and a range of shocks have dragged down 1H22 growth, we still see a resilient global economy returning to above-trend growth in 2H. However, lingering COVID-related lockdowns in China, rising food prices, and tightening financial conditions put some downside risk into this outlook. Next week’s April activity data will be a study in contrasts: very weak in China but rebounding in the US.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by David Mackie to discuss his recently released special report Living with COVID-19. Much of the world is moving quickly from a pandemic to an endemic equilibrium in which COVID will require minimal government restrictions and only limited pressure on healthcare systems. While this transition should boost global growth and promote a narrowing the wide growth gaps created by the virus, there are two important obstacles to normalization. First, the most populous country in the world China, is not in position join the rest of world in this transition. Second, the pandemic has likely had a lasting impact on labor markets which are remarkably tight and will likely place constraints on normalization.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
David Mackie
This podcast was recorded on May 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/t/GPS-4086751-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global economy is proving resilient so far to the many shocks and headwinds slowing activity this year. This has greenlighted central banks to normalize more rapidly. News that Fed will follow its 50bp hike this week with two more 50’s underscores the strong desire to return to neutral before yearend. Hawkish sentiments are sweeping through the central bank universe with even former doves changing tune. China remains a key near-term global growth threat.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We are proud to launch a new weekly economics publication, the EM Edge Data Watch. The Edge provides in depth coverage of over 30 economies currently not followed in our flagship Global Data Watch and folds in a set of regional products for this group. While the Edge is far from unified and represents countries with widely varying per capita GDP levels, market structure, and available economic indicators we see considerable value in standardizing their weekly coverage under one roof. Our aim is to provide a market-leading vehicle tracking economic releases and policy narratives while presenting insightful economic analysis both within and across countries. We hope you will find the EM Edge Data Watch useful and welcome feedback.
Speakers Ben Ramsey, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy Research
This podcast was recorded on April 29, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4070076-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A modest contraction in 1Q US GDP masks stronger underlying strength and is also offset by upside surprises across Europe and Asia. Inflation surprises continue, this week notably in the Euro area. While energy prices to moderate across the DM, core is elevated and more sticky. Next week, the Fed is to ramp up the pace of its most rapid normalization in over a quarter-century, with a raft of hikes elsewhere. Downside risks to the global outlook from China loom large over the near-term.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
While the US and Europe are displaying impressive resilience China is slowing sharply following its strong start to the year. With China hurt by COVID restrictions the region will face both slower export demand and increased supply pressures in the coming months. Importantly, other economies in the region are set to receive a boost from fading COVID drags and China policy is pivoting towards ease.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Sin Beng Ong
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Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Benjamin Shatil. The pace of recent yen depreciation has been remarkable, and the debate around its effect on the Japan economy is understandably intensifying. Under such conditions, concerns about the rise in import prices are mounting, but the impact of yen depreciation on inflation has been mild so far, while that on growth is still positive. That said, current yen depreciation highlights a divide between direct sufferers and beneficiaries, raising political issues. In particular, attention should be paid as well to its impact on corporate and household sentiment. BoJ is unlikely to adjust YCC due to yen depreciation unless it faces a significant rise in political pressure, in which case the BoJ could temporarily allow the 10yr yield to exceed the upper band. If any relief in yen weakness is temporary, the impact would not last. More drastic measures would be from the income distribution side if needed. At this point, currency intervention is not on the table.
This podcast was recorded on Apr 20, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4061110-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4061171-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4062330-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Current data show a consumer resilient to a powerful set of headwinds but also one that is slowing into the current quarter. Powerful supports are expected to lift spending in 2H22 as inflation pressures fade. China remains a wildcard as next week’s data to show strong 1Q22 GDP but monthly contractions heading into 2Q22.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global economy is undergoing the largest purchasing power squeeze in a quarter century, with March inflation running twice the fastest pace seen since the early 1980s. Beyond the near-term threat, however, fundamentals keep our outlook for a return to robust growth by 2H22 and for central banks to keep normalizing.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week brings a set of March data that underscores the forces buffeting the global expansion and the supports that are helping to cushion it. European inflation and US payrolls point to a huge purchasing power squeeze that is being offset by robust job growth. The global PMIs show the shocks falling differently around the world, with Asia feeling the brunt (so far) from China’s zero-COVID lockdowns. Central banks are still looking beyond the near-term downsides and we revise up rate forecasts for the Fed, ECB, and BoE.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai and Ayako Fujita. Japan’s economy has long faced deflation and disinflation; in this it has been an outlier globally. Unlike in other DMs, reflationary feedback between a tight labor market and inflation has failed. However, the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and especially Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may change that, as other nations limit Russia’s participation in global energy markets, and Japan likely will accelerate the use of high-cost renewable energy to compensate for the loss of fossil fuels, and focus more on economic security than economic efficiency. The resulting persistent input cost pressures could prompt firms to change their price-setting behavior, supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies, and allow Japan to exit its disinflationary equilibrium. While recognizing the caveats that this scenario assumes that the global economy will return to above-trend growth after 1H22 and there will be no premature signal of normalization of the monetary and fiscal policy, we discuss the prospects for Japan’s persistent disinflation to end over the medium term.
This podcast was recorded on Mar 31, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4043640-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global economy is being buffeted by two related shocks – a spike in inflation magnified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a large increase in global bond yields sparked by the hawkish pivot by the Fed. There is a risk that we underestimate the size of these shocks, with the greatest concern linked to the potential for Russian energy supply to Europe to be shut off. In addition, there is concern that these two developments could interact and generate financial stress. To date, financial conditions are tightening as interest rates rise but there are no clear pressure points of stress raising unusual concerns.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to introduce our monthly Global Inflation Monitor which details CPI performance through February. While pressures from energy price shocks related to the Russia invasion were an important source of the 0.6%m/m February CPI increase, food and core price pressures have been building broadly (with the notable exception of China). 1Q22 Global core inflation ex. Turkey and China is tracking at its fastest pace of increase in over thirty years (5.6%ar). Inflation pressures are prompting central banks to tighten policy, but the squeeze in household purchasing power associated with this spike poses a threat to global growth. While we have already shaved 2.5% off our 2022 Euro area GDP forecast there is risk of a much sharper drop if the conflict pushes energy prices substantially higher. A number of low-income EM economies face a large terms-of-trade loss and building domestic political unrest due to surging food prices inflation. An important offset to this squeeze is materializing as governments use fiscal supports to cushion income losses. Outside the US, we look for at least 0.5%-of GDP in additional fiscal support this year.
Speakers: Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research
Nora Szentivanyi, Senior Economist
Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Senior Economist
This podcast was recorded on March 24, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4041230-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
In this podcast we investigate the strength of Brazil’s labor market. In particular, we use the formal jobs quits rate to gauge labor demand in the country. We find that labor market conditions have tightened beyond the reported official labor data in the last couple of years.
This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4036404-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Near-term risks to growth remain skewed to the upside on inflation and to the downside on growth, but the early-year data continue to show a resilient global expansion. Our global GDP nowcaster is tracking twice our forecast for 1.5%ar growth this quarter. While ready to act nimbly should growth falter, central banks are looking through the risks and on a path to normalize.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Despite growth downgrades amid surging inflation, the global economy is still expected to expand at a trend-like pace in 1H22. This is keeping central banks focused on normalization. The ECB was hawkish this week and next week’s Fed is set to lift off.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Olya Borichevska, Jessica Murray and Joe Lupton to discuss gender gaps in labor market performance and how women have fared in the recovery from the pandemic.
Concerns over labor market scarring have been especially pronounced for women, who experienced an outsized hit during the 2020 recession compared to men, both in absolute terms and relative to previous recessions. This has raised concerns about structural change and potential scarring that could set back female labor performance.
While the recovery has seen the gender gap close in DM economies, women’s recovery has lagged in EM. We explore the reasons for this divergence and discuss what recent global developments mean for female labor and global labor markets more generally.
Speakers Nora Szentivanyi, Global EM Economist
Olya Borichevska, Global Economist
Jessica Murray, EMEA EM Research
Joe Lupton, Managing Director, Global Economic Research
This podcast was recorded on March 8, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4014692-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4019923-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Events are unfolding rapidly and yet uncertainty is still high and rising. This week, we mark down growth and raise inflation outlooks around the world but this may not yet be enough. Beneath the surface is a healthy global expansion, but it will be put to the test in the coming months.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We view the macro economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine largely through the lens of the energy sector where Russia accounts for more than 10% of global production. So far, sanctions have spared the energy sector and potential additional supply is in the offing from Iran. While risks will remain high – and risk premium maintained in crude oil and natural gas prices – this week’s events are prompting modest downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation forecasts.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Jahangir Aziz
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the intensifying Russia-Ukraine conflict and its implication for commodity prices and the global outlook. With Russia moving troops into Ukraine we now believe risk premium will continue to put upward pressure on commodity prices and have raised our forecasts for a number of commodities in which Russia is an important export market. Most notably, we the Brent oil price averaging $115/bbl in 2Q22. There are two sided risks to this forecast. We are not forecasting the imposition of the full range of Western sanctions imposed that could produce large retaliatory action. At the same time, the rising prospect that Iranian oil comes on to the market could produce lower prices if tensions around Ukraine abate. Rising oil prices is a drag on global growth buts its impact should be tempered by the lifting now underway as the Omicron wave is fading. In all, we do not expect the conflict to give the Fed reason for pause at it is expected to embark on a tightening cycle where we look for moves at each of the next nine meetings.
This podcast was recorded on February 23, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4011886-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4012251-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Michael Hanson. While we continue to raise inflation forecasts and add to our expectations for central bank tightening, it is important to remember that global growth is downshifting this quarter. A risk of oil price spikes remains an important risk, but the latest news highlights consumer resiliency and signs that the COVID drag is fading in Europe. If we are right, these developments are setting the stage for a growth bounce next quarter.
This podcast was recorded on February 18, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton discussing how Inflation continues to run much hotter than already heightened expectations, this week from a blistering US CPI report for January. Gone is the word “transitory,” but there is a growing sense that the strong readings have more signal of a much tighter global economy that requires much more rapid normalization. March meetings are unlikely to surprise much but beyond that, the path look set to steepen notably.
This podcast was recorded on February 11, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Nora Szentivanyi to discuss our recent research on the dramatic tightening underway in global labor markets. Both our DM and EM aggregates show unemployment rates approaching pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021, an outcome that contrasts with a still-substantial shortfall in GDP. For both regions, this partly reflects pandemic-related disruptions to labor supply that have depressed participation rates. However, a number of other factors are at work. Demand has rotated toward higher-productivity sectors in the US while European policies have reduced the work week while preserving jobs. In EM, we believe the pandemic hit informal sectors unusually hard, reducing GDP in a manner not fully reflected in measured employment. Central banks across the globe are under increasing pressure to adjust policy in response to rapidly labor markets. For now, the DM central bank response will be limited by hopes that a fading of the pandemic might elicit stronger labor supply (US) and productivity (Euro area) growth.
This podcast was recorded on February 9, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3990349-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3993206-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. Despite clear signs of growth slowing in response to the Omicron drag, the latest data reveal resilience in a number of areas including labor markets. This is keeping central banks focused on inflation and normalization. Last week’s hawkish Fed meeting was followed this week by hawkish meetings from the ECB and BoE. We add rate hikes to both for this year.
This podcast was recorded on February 4, 2022.
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Featured in this podcast are Hiroshi Ugai, Takafumi Yamawaki, and Benjamin Shatil. While other DM CBs are approaching liftoff, the BoJ will lag in the exit from easy monetary policy, reflecting that only Japan has no clear way to achieve 2% inflation target. That said, the inflation outlook is highly uncertain and the difference in policy direction between the BoJ and other DM CBs may move the financial markets. Under such conditions we discuss whether the BoJ has the possibility to start the process toward the exit, what would be the policy sequence toward the exit, and how it would impact markets. To conclude in advance, adjusting to YCC may come in 2023 as a risk scenario, while the hurdle for liftoff would be much higher. The next governor may put less weight on achieving the target, thereby advancing the move toward the exit. In a plausible risk scenario of adjustment to YCC the BoJ could allow the 10yr JGB yield to rise to 0.15%-0.30% in 2023, implying 1%-2% lower fair value for USD/JPY. Other scenarios with much lower probabilities would accelerate the rise in 10yr JGB yield and the decline in USD/JPY.
This podcast was recorded on Feb 3, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3985451-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3976942-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3972086-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joseph Lupton to discuss how Chair Powell has sent a strong signal that this normalization cycle will prove different than the last and we now expect the FOMC to hike seven times (175bp) by the end of March 2023. This shift comes against the backdrop of a sharp slowing in US and global growth this quarter. To realize our Fed call, the Omicron drag needs to be short-lived and the threat posed by energy and agricultural supply shocks needs to pass unrealized. Looking beyond the start of the year, risks turn towards the transmission of Fed tightening to financial markets which has varied greatly over previous policy normalizations.
This podcast was recorded on January 28, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Jay Barry, Joe Lupton, and Michael Hanson to discuss today’s FOMC meeting and the path of policy normalization across the Developed Market economies. As expected, the FOMC laid the ground work for an expected March hike and mid-year start to QT. While Chair Powell also met our expectations in eschewing the gradual adjustment guidance delivered on the eve of the 2004 and 2015 normalizations he went further by emphasizing differences that “are likely to have important implications for the appropriate pace of policy adjustments.” His hawkish comments raise the risk of a more aggressive pace of tightening and add upside risk to the interest rate outlook. We remain comfortable that the economy will prove resilient in the face of this adjustment and will rebound from an expected large Omicron drag at the start of the year. Other DM central banks are also in motion, but at a more gradual pace on both balance sheet and rates. Importantly, this cycle should also prove different as the ECB is expected to be raising rates within a year of the start of Fed normalization.
This podcast was recorded on January 26 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3983276-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton. The global economy looks to have bounced back strongly last quarter as bottleneck pressures eased and pandemic headwinds faded. But a new round of the same pressures are set to damp growth this quarter. The consumer will bear the brunt. Inflation is a key concern, as rising energy and core prices are joined by surging agriculture prices. Central banks to look through the near-term headwinds and move toward normalization. The Fed next week is widely expected to deliver guidance to March lift-off.
This podcast was recorded on January 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Malcolm Barr, Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Greg Fuzesi.
We discuss recent changes to our forecasts for inflation (higher) and the ECB (earlier tightening).
This podcast was recorded on January 21, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3972532-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Ben Ramsey, Cassiana Fernandez, Gabriel Lozano, and Diego Pereira. In this podcast we review our economic outlook for Latin America in 2022, a year in which we see many challenges amid prospects for high inflation, tightening monetary policy, slowing growth, and significant political and electoral uncertainty. In particular, we focus on the main questions we’ve been getting during our conversations with investors as we kick off the new year.
This podcast was recorded on January 20, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3968916-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Ayako Fujita. Since Japanese firms’ wages have barely increased for 20 years, currently the Japanese government is planning to introduce many measures like a tax incentive, moral suasion, and selective wage increases to accelerate Japanese firms’ wage growth. The government expects that these measures will lay the foundation for future economic growth, and that a large rise in wages would also contribute to a sustainable rise in prices. We discuss the impact of these measures, and find that these measures are unlikely to work under the current high labor income shares and firms’ still cautious price-setting behavior in the face of the huge increases in energy and commodity prices. We think persistent labor shortages or policies to boost labor productivity such as through promoting digital transformation (DX) would have more impact, though it would take time to reap results.
This podcast was recorded on Jan 20, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3966542-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Momentum continues to soften as consumers took a breather through the holidays. Downgrades this week point to 1Q21 being the weakest of the expansion. We see the Omicron wave as a concentrated drag that will reverse in later quarters. But elevated inflation and a faster-than-expected normalization in labor markets is challenging the view of a gradual path of monetary normalization around the world, and this should temper the expansion.
Featured in this podcast is Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton.
This podcast was recorded on January 14, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss recently published research showing that factory output is rebounding and sending encouraging signs that the bottlenecks holding back activity are easing. Evidence is emerging from the global PMIs and a range of transportation price measures. Even more encouraging is the robust recovery gathering steam in Asia, a goods-centric region at the center of the supply chain bottlenecks, and the motor vehicles sector where global output fell 25% over the first nine month of 2021. While final demand is growing at a modest pace, the strong desire to replenish depleted inventories has pushed global factory output gains to a double-digit annualized pace in the last three months of 2021.
The evolving spread of the Omicron variant looks likely to slow this recovery and generate a significant, synchronized drag on global growth this quarter. Our view is that services will bear the brunt of the near-term drag and that it is unlikely that there will be a significant renewal of manufacturing sector supply constraints. If right, manufacturing will take the lead in global growth this quarter as inventory replenishment continues.
This podcast was recorded on January 12, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3968 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Marco Protopapa and Malcolm Barr discuss the economic and political outlook for Italy in the light of the forthcoming choice of a new president.
This podcast was recorded on January 11, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3965695-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global recovery is experiencing a fading of the supply shocks that damped growth last year but now facing a new resiliency test in the form of Omicron. We expect industry to weather the storm better than services, a view supported so far by the December PMIs, and for the economy as a whole to fare better than prior COVID waves. Central banks are keeping their eyes on normalization, and we now see the Fed hiking in March and beginning balance sheet roll-off in July.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This was recorded on January 7, 2022.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Joe Lupton, and Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the near-term inflation outlook. Global CPI inflation accelerated sharply last quarter to an estimated 5.9%ar, approaching its fastest pace over the past quarter century. This acceleration was accompanied by a notable broadening of price pressures. While a broadening of price pressures often signals a sustained upward shift in inflation but we believe it is appropriate to fade last quarter’s acceleration and look for a significant drop to a 3.5%ar in 1Q22.
It is easy to forecast a deceleration in energy inflation as a natural gas price shock is starting to fade. Forecasting the trajectory of core inflation is more complicated as goods and services prices face different COVID -related cross-currents. In all, we forecast core inflation to stabilize this quarter. But for the first time in a year, we assess risks at the start of the quarter as skewed towards a downside surprise. In contrast to last year’s COVID waves, it is unlikely that the Omicron wave derails the gradual relaxation of global supply constraints now underway. Its potential drag on service-sector demand thus poses the greatest near-term risk.
This podcast was recorded on January 5, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3961435-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A very busy week in monetary policy watching delivered a set of central banks that are intent on starting down the path of normalization sooner than anticipated earlier this year but with a sense that the journey will be incremental. The implicit hope is for a soft landing that returns labor market to full employment while containing inflation. In the near-term, our baseline sees growth and inflation slowing early next year. The current quarter is looking strong but the new COVID-19 threat poses downside risks to 1Q21 GDP and two-sided risks to inflation.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on December 17, 2021.
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Bruce Kasman is joined by Michael Feroli, Allan Monks, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to discuss this week’s DM central bank policy meetings. Although the Fed, Bank of England, and ECB moved on different fronts, each is accelerating its normalization process while emphasizing that there is no need to move very far. While we believe the Bank of England and Fed will raise rates three times next year, neither central bank is guiding toward a full normalization of stances over 2022-23. In a similar vein, the ECB announced an end to PEPP in March but suggested that policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2022.
This podcast was recorded on December 16, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3953141-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3952359-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
With pandemic headwinds building, the latest resiliency test to hit the global recovery is not over. However, current quarter outturns continue to impress, with trade numbers out of Asia pointing to a reintegration of supply chains and data out of US, German, and Japan auto sectors showing a rebound. Consumer spending is on the rise, showing notable resilience to multi-decade high inflation that is likely to fall back next quarter—expanding purchasing power. DM central banks are taking note and looking past near-term pandemic risks and down the path to normalization. Next week’s Fed expected to accelerate tapering, telescope lift-off, and boost the hiking pace.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on December 10, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai, Ayako Fujita and Yuka Mera. The Japan economic and policy research team explores the key themes of Japan’s 2022 economic outlook and their implications for markets.
This podcast was recorded on Dec 9, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3940715-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in today's podcast are Bruce Kasman and Joseph Lupton as they discuss activity data point to fading bottlenecks, waning inflation pressures, and improving growth—concentrated in the goods sector. At the same time, rising COVID cases across Europe and the US, and the potential threat of Omicron, pose a risk to the outlook and a challenge for central banks. For now, positive signs on data and a tightening labor market seem to be pushing the Fed to taper faster and hike earlier.
This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, Arthur Luk and Tiffany Wang. The Greater China economics and strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.
This podcast was recorded on December 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3934736-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3939324-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Seok Gil Park, Sin Beng Ong, Arindam Sandilya and Arthur Luk. The Korea chief economist and the strategy team present 2022 economic outlook and its implications for strategy recommendations.
This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Raisah Rasid, Seok Gil Park, Jin Tik Ngai, Arthur Luk and Abbas Keshvani. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the ASEAN 2022 outlook; concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on December 2, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Sin Beng Ong, Haibin Zhu, Sajjid Chinoy, Arindam Sandilya, Arthur Luk, Abbas Keshvani and Tiffany Wang. In this podcast, we explore some of the key themes for the EM Asia 2022 outlook; with a focus on developments in China and India, concluding with implications for the FX and rates markets.
This podcast was recorded on Dec 1, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3938038-0 and www.jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-3937021-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton, Jahangir Aziz, and Malcolm Barr to discuss our recently published “2022 Global Economic Outlook: This Time IS Different” amid growing concern around the Omicron variant. Omicron emerges with an already significant rise in global cases and points to a winter wave of infections which is likely to exceed last quarter’s Delta wave. The drag on growth from this wave may prove material but we maintain two views critical to the outlook. The first is that the drag is transitory as greater rate of infection is not accompanied by a significant deterioration in the effectiveness of vaccines in limiting hospitalizations and deaths. The second is that the wave is concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere where we anticipate US and Euro area growth to slow towards a 2%ar in 1Q22.
If we are right, Asia will be less affected as we turn into the new year and provide a growth boost – from rising demand and moderating supply constraints -- that allows the global economy to sustain above-potential performance in 1H22. This dynamic is consistent with our medium-term view that an underlying reflationary tilt is underway which should eliminate global slack next year and see core inflation settle roughly 0.5%-pts above pre-pandemic levels.
This podcast was recorded on November 29, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3930876-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
This week’s news supports our view that Asia – alongside the US consumer – will lead an acceleration in global growth this quarter. However, we have lowered our Euro area GDP growth forecast this week as a new wave of infections is rising across Europe – a development which raises concern for the entire North Hemisphere as we move towards winter. On the policy front new fiscal stimulus is coming in Japan while we now expect two Fed hikes in 2022.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on November 19, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Dan Weitzenfeld to discuss the release of the J.P. Morgan Policy Rate Forecast Revision Index (FRIP). The FRIs draw on J.P. Morgan’s long history of forecasting macroeconomic variables for 30 countries to generate a simple index for tracking week-to-week revisions. The policy rate FRI adds to a suite of FRIs already being produced for GDP, inflation, and core inflation. We highlight what the FRIP tells us about the accuracy and efficiency (within and across countries) of J.P. Morgan policy rate forecasts and its implication for our recent forecast revision for the US FOMC to hike twice next year.
This podcast was recorded on November 18, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3926221-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Inflation once again surprised to the upside globally this week, with big jumps in the US, LatAm, and much of the CEE, due in part to accelerating energy and services prices. This hit to purchasing power has notably weakened sentiment, particularly in the US. Global auto production also has been beaten down, but some easing of bottleneck pressures should contribute to a strong IP bounce this quarter, starting with next week’s October prints for the US and China.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This podcast was recorded on date.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Tohru Sasaki. With the current continuation of depreciation, the Japanese yen has fallen to its historical low on a real basis. Amid the sharp rise in energy prices, markets are concerned that yen depreciation may harm Japan’s economy. However, we argue that, although the trade structure has changed, yen depreciation still stimulates Japan’s economy, and those concerns may be largely because it is likely to hit the weakest part of the economy during the pandemic. Next, we discuss the structural background behind the fact that the yen has not returned to appreciation, and various scenarios of the yen’s future. If the Japanese economy realizes an improvement in productivity growth and economic growth, thereby increasing income growth, the yen would stop depreciating at least on a real basis. However, if that does not happen, the currently poor state of the economy could continue or worsen, and the yen could continue to depreciate, both on a nominal and real basis.
This podcast was recorded on Nov 11, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3913011-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3915343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The October PMIs showed a strong post-delta wave recovery in services, but supply disruptions continued to weigh down momentum in manufacturing. That said, data out of EM Asia point to a nascent easing of bottlenecks there. The US jobs report revealed strong payroll growth and a further drop in unemployment, but supply constraints also were apparent in the participation rate and job flows. These supply-side issues are pressuring inflation higher and challenging central banks’ communications.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and Jahangir Aziz discuss the wide variation in post-pandemic recoveries in emerging markets, the persistent damage to medium-term growth and implications for policy and politics. EM has come out worse than DM in the pandemic. Outside of China, EM GDP is currently about 4% below its pre-pandemic path; the hit has been uneven with gaps of 7% or greater in a number of EM countries, mostly in South Asia and Latin America. Despite the pickup in vaccinations we generally see the weak links continuing to deliver sub-par outcomes. EM will enter an electoral cycle from 2022 and the political economy of permanent scarring will likely affect politics and policies materially, especially in Latin America. The consequences of the pandemic are likely to be long-lasting, lowering potential growth. EM potential was trending lower even before the pandemic and we estimate a further 0.5%-pts hit from the pandemic outside of China.
This podcast was recorded on November 4, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3900323-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3907254-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Haibin Zhu, Grace Ng, and Joe Lupton to discuss our forecast that global growth is rotating toward Asia as we move toward year-end. There are three forces driving this view: A China policy turn, a relaxation of regional supply chain constraints, and a fading of Delta wave drags amid rising vaccination rates. China has been the biggest disappointment recently and uncertainty about policy preferences alongside October survey disappointments keeps risks skewed to the downside. The news is more upbeat elsewhere in the region where mobility has moved higher and the October PMIs moved higher led by the ASEAN countries.
This podcast was recorded on November 3, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
How transitory the drags are holding back 3Q global GDP and lifting inflation are the central question for the outlook. For now, we see growth picking up this quarter, led by Asia and the US. Next week’s PMIs and US payrolls will be keenly watched. The ECB and BoC bookend the views on the risks around this debate, with the ECB holding firmly to it transitory view and the BoC tempering their commitment. Next week is expected to see the BoE hike under pressure and the Fed to begin tapering, with particular attention given to guidance on inflation and its rate liftoff.
Speakers
Joseph Lupton
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Jose Cerveira, Greg Fuzesi, Joe Lupton, and David Mackie to discuss the recent rise of COVID cases across Europe. The source of this new wave appears concentrated in young unvaccinated populations but a fading of vaccine effectiveness, the onset of colder weather, and a relaxation of restrictions all contribute to the latest outbreak. The risk of a significant shift toward policy restrictions is modest as the latest wave is generating significantly lower hospitalizations. But our European mobility metrics have been sliding in recent weeks, reinforcing downside growth risks already evident in the recent softening in surveys. Europe’s downshift stands in sharp contrast to the US and Asia (ex. China) where mobility and high-frequency indicators look to be pointing positive. This points to a potential rotation in global growth this quarter that might be reinforced with the recent moves by the US to increase boosters and extend vaccination to children.
This podcast was recorded on October 27, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
A key question for the global outlook is whether the disappointment in 3Q global growth, now tracking 3.4%ar following a weak China report and downside revisions for the US next week, will reverse in 4Q. The October flash DM PMIs suggest improving momentum into the current quarter, but also intensifying supply constraints. EM central banks continue to tighten as inflation accelerates, and we now see the BoE hiking this year.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Michael Hanson
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast is Hiroshi Ugai and Ryota Sakagami. With the government’s change in decarbonization policy since last year, private firms have already started taking aggressive measures and we expect massive investment in changing the energy mix, firms’ proactive green capex, and housing investment. This decarbonization investment likely will accelerate until 2030, which could raise Japan’s economic growth rate. This would be a tailwind for construction, housing, and banks, as well as machinery and materials. That said, decarbonization could become a large external diseconomy if the Japanese economy fails to adjust smoothly, and the government should accelerate the working out details of the Green Growth Strategy and expand its financial supports.
This podcast was recorded on Oct 21, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3888227-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3887300-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Featured in this podcast are Gabriel Lozano and Ben Ramsey.
This month, Mexican President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO) presented a constitutional reform proposal that would roll back a number of growth-enhancing structural measures designed to liberalize his country’s energy sector. While the proposal is wide-ranging, most impacted would be Mexico’s electricity sector, which would largely be turned back to the state-owned utility, CFE. We see numerous adverse economic impacts from the proposal, which we discuss, while also assessing the most likely outcome of the legislation before Mexico’s Congress. At this point, we would not discount the risks that a substantial portion of the president’s proposal could become law. Ben Ramsey, J.P. Morgan’s head of Latin America Research in New York, interviews Mexico Chief Economist Gabriel Lozano from Mexico City.
This podcast was recorded on October 21, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3888935-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Michael Feroli, Joe Lupton and Allan Monks to discuss the reaction functions of the US Fed and UK BoE. We moved forward our forecast for the first BoE rate hike to November this week as the BoE appears more concerned about the risk of persistent inflation against a backdrop of tightening labor markets and rising inflation breakevens. Faced with a similar set of concerns the Fed is set to remain patient in the coming months. This contrast reflects both a different assessment of risk and a Fed reaction function more focused on labor market healing. The Fed’s patience will likely prove limited if inflation doesn’t moderate significantly during 1H22. And markets seem complacent about the medium-term consequences of Fed that is likely to start its normalization well behind the curve.
This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Japan’s economic recovery is still incomplete. With the belated start of vaccinations, Japan’s state of emergency was renewed three times during the first three quarters of 2021, leaving business restrictions in place for most of the period. This has dampened economic activity, particularly in services, leaving real GDP below the 2019 average even a year and half after the pandemic began. However, with new infections having dropped sharply and vaccination having progressed rapidly, the government lifted the state of emergency at the end of September, and now seeks a new endemic equilibrium. Since the virus-related drag has been the main constraint on economic activity, and underlying momentum has remained solid, these moves likely will pave the way for a full-fledged recovery.
We believe there is room for a powerful surge in services consumption in particular. With the government’s extended policy supports, pandemic-related damage to labor income has been limited. This, together with constraints on consumption opportunities under the state of emergency, has led to the persistently elevated household savings, leaving households with high accumulated liquid savings. We think the upcoming easing of business restrictions and the removal of self-restraint requests will free up households’ pent-up demand funded out of excess savings amid the solid income environment. The full recovery in domestic consumption activity is likely to boost Japan’s economic growth in coming quarters.
This podcast was recorded on October 15, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Jay Barry and Joe Lupton to discuss the recent rise in G-10 bond yields and inflation compensation measures. While the rise in inflation breakevens in the US and Europe is consistent with the reflation tilt built into our medium-term forecast, it also displays a whiff of stagflation as rising near-term inflation expectations are not accompanied by rising real yields. Our baseline forecast of growth resiliency anticipates nominal yields to move up further from here as real yields rise. Breakevens are expected to stabilize as inflation comes off the boil. While they would likely face downside pressure if growth materially disappointed, a key upside risk is the potential for a dovish Fed shift if Chair Powell is not reappointed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Jay Barry
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on October 13, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3877092-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
New prime minister Kishida’s economic policy agenda refers to many areas, but focuses more on income redistribution to households than on Japan’s growth. We discuss how Japan needs resources before conducting income redistribution and expanding the middle class, and how reinforcing economic growth is the way to get these resources. Unless Kishida changes policy priorities, Japan is likely to return to sub-par growth after the tentative pent-up demand is used up.
This podcast was recorded on October 12, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3882103-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3858691-0, and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3840641-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Bruce Kasman is joined by Natasha Kaneva, Joe Lupton, and Greg Fuzesi to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the recent surge in natural gas prices. Prices have soared to historic highs in response to a perfect storm of high demand and impediments to supply. With supplies already low and production struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising heating demands, the risks point to extremely tight markets and high prices for the months ahead. Natural gas is largely a regional affair. While the US is generally well supplied and Asia is first in line for LNG, Europe is the residual claimant and has seen the most stunning spikes in gas prices this year. Governments will subsidize consumers, but the risks to business margins and even factory operations in the face of energy constraints poses yet another threat to the recovery.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Natesha Kaneva
Joseph Lupton
Greg Fuzesi
This podcast was recorded on October 6, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3869150-0 and www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3871854-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Sajjid Chinoy and Sin Beng Ong discuss the implications of the region’s shift to an endemic equilibrium and its implication for monetary policy, with a focus on the upcoming RBI and MAS meetings.
This podcast was recorded on October 5, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3864472-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876067-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3857972-0, www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3812028-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nicolaie Alexandru and Jose Cerveira discuss the recent hike from Czech National Bank and outlook for policy rates of other central banks in the CEE region.
Speakers Nicolaie Alexandru, Head of EMEA EM Economics
Jose Cerveira, Senior Economist for the CE3 region
This podcast was recorded on 1 October 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3876292-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3867304-0, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3875903-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss why the Delta wave has been more benign than expected and whether we are getting close to an endemic equilibrium.
This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3872999-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3866225-0
https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3859107-0
for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Although US real GDP is currently estimated to stand 2% above its pre-pandemic level, employment is still 3% from its pre-crisis norm. We discuss our latest research on US labor markets focusing on the roles that a shift in the composition of demand, pandemic-related supply shocks, and the recent removal of enhanced unemployment benefits play in impeding labor market healing.
Featured in this podcast:
Bruce Kasman
Jesse Edgerton
Joseph Lupton
Peter McCrory
This podcast was recorded on September 29, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3868316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Malcolm Barr discusses recent shifts in expectations about the Bank of England, and the recent hike in rates by the Norgesbank, with Allan Monks and Morten Lund.
This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Downside risks for China have increased against the backdrop of a slowing in activity indicators and rising concern that recent regulatory policies will further weigh on growth. Although we believe that spillovers from rising credit stress will remain limited, the latest developments raise questions about the commitment and capability of policymakers to quickly boost growth.
Any disappointment in China would have knock-on effects for global growth, but they are likely to prove modest in an environment in which cyclical momentum elsewhere remains strong and China’s policy shifts and credit overhangs are not indicative of broader global developments.
This podcast was recorded on September 22, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Malcolm Barr, Head of Western European Economics, is joined by Greg Fuzesi, Head of Euro Area Economics, to discuss yesterday’s ECB decisions and look ahead to elections in Germany later this month.
This podcast was recorded on Sept 10, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3804931-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Food price inflation is accelerating globally (ex. China) and is now running at a faster pace than overall CPI. While weather and commodity price moves often explain food price moves the current pickup appears linked to the same pandemic related pressures raising core inflation. As a result it is a signal of broadening inflation pressures and a broadening drag on growth as bottlenecks and rising input costs generate a purchasing power squeeze. However, in contrast to 2010-11, most central banks are likely to view this as a transitory inflation impulse for now.
This podcast was recorded on September 8, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3855988-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We have been anticipating a large wave of Delta variant infections this quarter to weigh on mobility and generate a modest drag on global growth. In the event, the Delta wave has proved surprisingly mild thus far as global mobility continues to rise. But indirect drags from the Delta variant are probably greater than we anticipated. Its concentration in Asia is extending supply chain disruptions and rising concerns about a transition to a COVID endemic may be weighing on confidence.
This podcast was recorded on September 1, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3851149-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Our forecasts anticipate an acceleration in global growth this quarter but incoming data point to momentum slowing. There are likely a number of factors contributing to this slowing – including China policy tightening; a Delta sentiment drag; and persistent supply side constraints. While it is still likely that global growth will remain well above-trend, risks to our 2H21 forecast for global GDP to grow nearly 3%-pts above its potential pace are now skewed to the downside. Our focus is thus shifting toward confirming that the forces currently weighing on momentum will soon fade from the scene.
This podcast was recorded on August 25, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the implications of our latest research on the UK pointing to a third wave of COVID infections that will likely peak at much higher levels than the previous two. We consider the consequences for health care and economic outcomes in the UK and focus on the lessons of the UK experience for the rest of the world.
This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3804931-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
We discuss the economic recovery in Japan post-summer, addressing aspects of the outlook from supply constraints and vaccination rates to production dynamics and government policy.
This podcast was recorded on July 21, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
The global economy’s first-half performance was marked by resilient growth in the face of the second wave of the pandemic, alongside broad-based upside inflation surprises. Although we expect divergent policy impulses to sustain a wide US-China growth gap, acceleration elsewhere is central to our 2H21 outlook. We look for vaccinations to more fully sever the link between economic activity and the virus unleashing significant pent-up consumer demand in Europe, Japan, and EM ex. China. Fading pandemic headwinds should also relieve supply constraints which were a significant source of inflation in 1H21. However, alleviating bottlenecks will take time and the anticipated re-opening of service-sectors should lift inflation in areas where normally-sticky prices moved lower last year.
This podcast was recorded on July 14, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3794739-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. A version of this podcast was previously disseminated to institutional clients with the title “Global Data Pod: Breaking the waves as vaccinations pave the way for acceleration and greater balance in 2H21 growth” © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Nora Szentivanyi and David Mackie discuss their recent research on EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant and its potential to delay reopening and recovery in EM economies.
This podcast was recorded on July 9, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only.
Institutional clients can view the related report at EM vulnerabilities to the Delta variant (Szentivanyi, Mackie – 8 July 2021); The race between vaccinations and variants (Mackie – 25 June 2021); COVID-19 vaccination thresholds and the 'new normal' (Mackie – 14 June 2021); Global vulnerabilities to the COVID-19 variant B.1.617.2 (Mackie – 11 June 2021); for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
- On top of humanitarian and economic damage, COVID-19 has challenged to economic data analysis
- In particular, existing core CPI metrics may not be the best gauge of underlying inflation given the many supply and demand shocks involved in this crisis
- We use the methodology of Shapiro (2020) to decompose core EX0 inflation…
- …and we use part of this decomposition to propose a new Core-COVID IPCA
The objective of this metric is to avoid confusing temporary fluctuations with a more structural inflationary process. In our view, using this new core along with other measures would be useful to understand inflation dynamics.
This podcast was recorded on July 7, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-3792601-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Malcolm Barr (Head of Western European Economics) is joined by Alan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss recent inflation developments and their forecasts for the next 12 months.
This podcast was recorded on July 6, 2021.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2021 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.