Forward Guidance: Recent Episodes
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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that the U.S. economy will enter a recession soon, and he discusses in detail several of his leading indicators that motivate his view. Filmed on September 7, 2023.
Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance
Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Pre-Recession Phase Continues (06:25) Housing And Autos Are Not Slowing Down That Much (13:19) Consumer Credit Is Still Somewhat Strong (For Now) (16:17) When Will Recession Come? (23:11) Pushing Back Against The Recessionary Thesis (30:14) How Far Will Unemployment Rate Go? (32:06) Does New Bull Market In Stocks Indicate There Will Be No Recession? (36:40) Debate On Mechanics Of How Higher Interest Rates Constrain Economic Activity (39:56) Banking System And Credit Crunch (52:35) Contraction In Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Is Signalling A Recession (01:00:23) What Is Eric's Level Of Confidence That U.S. Is Indeed Headed For A Recession? (01:09:47) Outlook on Rates & Bond Yields
This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well as the banking system, which Jack shares his thoughts on in some depth. Recorded on September 1st, 2023. Original episode on Behind The Markets: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-the-markets-podcast-jack-farley/id1194707802?i=1000626532544 Jeremy Siegel’s book, “Stocks for the Long Run 5/E: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies”: https://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Definitive-Investment/dp/0071800514 Follow Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter https://twitter.com/JeremyDSchwartz Follow WisdomTree on Twitter https://twitter.com/WisdomTreeFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (04:58) Money Supply & Other Monetary Aggregates (07:21) Bond Market (08:42) Jack's Question For Professor Siegel About Non-Farm Payrolls (12:30) Professor Siegel's Short-Term Modestly Bullish View On Stocks (15:29) Stocks And The Economy (19:39) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of American Households (28:24) Jack's Views On Banking System
When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed on September 5, 2023. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMilton
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:09) Reviewing Milton Berg's Successful Bullish Call in January 2023 (07:23) Market Outlook Now (20:00) "This Market Is In A Lot Of Trouble (22:16) Eight Reasons To Doubt That This Bull Market Will Continue (28:05) Banking Index Often Bottoms Before General Stock Market Bull Move (30:14) High Interest Rates Are A Deflationary Force (36:26) Stock Market Not As Healthy As It Seems (56:16) Market Cycle Dates (01:05:54) Milton Berg No Longer Bullish On China (01:08:17) Anticipating the End Of This Rally (01:18:35) Bullish Call On Bank Index (01:24:13) Stocks Will Likely Decline Below Low Of October 2022, Argues Berg ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adjustment, etc.) will be less of a factor in 2024, and as such, Deluard expects the U.S. economy to slow. Deluard reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish U.S. stocks, and prefers international stocks. Filmed on August 21, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow StoneX on Twitter https://twitter.com/stoneX_official Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The "Stealth Stimulus" Is Over (13:15) How Much Tightening Effect Of Higher Rates Has Already Been Felt? (18:55) Making Sense of 2023 Stock Market Rally (20:59) The Second Wave Of Inflation (26:40) Is Central Banks' Inflation Target Unnecessary? (41:13) Vincent's Bull Case For Non-U.S. Assets (46:49) China (49:52) Europe (53:29) Japan (55:35) Sector Analysis: Healthcare, Tech, Energy, Financials (59:14) Bearish View On U.S. Stocks (01:02:25) Bank Outlook After Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow Mike Singleton https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:19) Singleton's Macro Process (12:47) The Excess Savings Debate (17:06) U.S. Economy Headed For Severe Recession In 2023 (19:19) The Best Time To Buy Bonds (24:06) Unemployment Rate To Go As High As 7% (48:52) The Spending Boom ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuman18 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:vhttps://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) The Origins Of ESG (04:32) Measuring ESG Investing (16:47) What Stocks Are Underowned Within The Indices? (24:00) Silicon Valley Bank (26:21) Show Me The Incentive & I'll Show You the Outcome (32:50) ExxonMobil, Tesla & FTX (43:59) Weighting Within ESG Funds (49:06) Did 2022 Mark A Turning Point For ESG Investing? (54:38) HERO: Healing The Environment Regenerating Ourselves -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:26) Country Allocation Is Greater Source of Excess Returns Than Company Selection (03:55) Greatest Country Overweight: Greece (07:32) Underweight South Africa and India (08:33) Can Governments Default On Debt Denominated In Currencies They Can Print? The Answer May Surprise You! (10:54) Could The U.S. Ever Have An "Emerging Market Debt Crisis"? (12:31) Chinese Equities
____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by the U.S. Congress which has caused inflation and rate volatility. Filmed on August 16, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) Bill's Early Journey To The FDIC (03:23) Anatomy Of A Bank Failure (12:40) Does Technology Hasten Bank Runs? (21:30) Impact of High Interest Rates On Banking System (31:01) Fiscal Policy Is Out Of Control (40:48) Federal Reserve Should Play A Role In Fiscal Matters, Says Former FDIC Chair (49:07) Is Inflation Itself, And Not Debt, The True Problem? (Modern Monetary Theory) (56:10) Two Reasons Why Banks Fall (On Asset Side): Credit & Duration (01:08:28) Are Banking Issues In The U.S. Systemic? (01:16:42) Debating The Need For Zero Interest Rates After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC) ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timecodes:
Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserve’s by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the FHLB’s mission, capitalization, and implicit government guarantee. Ericson and Siciliano argue that the declining advances from FHLBs to U.S. banks since May 2023 may indicate an easing of liquidity pressures in the U.S. banking system. Filmed on August 15, 2023.
Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:21) About Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System (21:08) FHLB Is Much, Much Less Centralized Than The Federal Reserve (25:47) San Francisco FHLB Advances To Now-Defunct West Coast Banks (34:48) FHLB & Affordable Housing (38:07) What Caused Banks' Scramble For Cash in March 2023? (46:21) FHLB Implict Government Guarantee (57:24) How Have FHLBs Never Lost Any Money On Advances To Banks? (01:06:58) Interest Rate Hedging (01:08:31) Liquidity Issues In U.S. Banking System Have "Calmed Down Quite A Bit" (01:15:16) Capital Stock Of Federal Home Loan Banks (01:24:40) Will Regulators Attempt To Curb FHLB Lending To Non-Mission-Oriented Institutions? (01:28:00) Potential New FHFA Regulation of FHLB ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Resilience Of The U.S. Housing Market (09:28) Comparing the 2020 Housing Boom to the Early 2000s Housing Boom (13:43) Commercial Real Estate: Multifamily Housing (Apartment Buildings) (20:58) Shelter's Contribution To Overall Consumer Price Inflation (22:35) Housing's Impact On Banking System (25:53) Forecasts For Single-Family Housing (32:20) Supply of Housing (38:53) Outlook on Homebuilding Industry (43:42) Negative Outlook On Home Improvement Industry (48:22) Market For Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (51:06) The Fed Was Supporting The Market With Free Money (52:37) Macro Outlook
Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok.
We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade (07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade (11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall (15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance (19:58) Commercial Real Estate (23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle? (26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:23) Inflation (05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates (08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy (10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target (16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target? (21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok (11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt (20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates (28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System (31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market (35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher? (38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023
Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023. Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess (06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed (09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect
Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.” Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo ___ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (08:22) The Bond Market (12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco (17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt (18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines
James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/trading. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt (16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral (28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money (42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option (49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System (58:36) Why Just Bitcoin? (01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund (01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities (01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve (01:15:04) Tether (01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/ More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ ____ Timecodes: (00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity (04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake (11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising? (18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity (31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"? (44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo (53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks (59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade (01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)? (01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell (01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates. Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. To begin your onboarding process, visit https://blockfills.com/open Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Something Has To Crack (11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up (22:09) Recession Risk (26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds? (32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007 (36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"? (40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling? (43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!) (45:40) U.S. Housing Market (49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar (01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish (01:08:34) China (01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023.
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market (05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data (14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed (23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds? (31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields (34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? (42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time? (46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade (49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.
With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Peter Atwater, Adjunct Professor of Economics at William and Mary, and author of “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity” joins Forward Guidance to diagnose the sentiment that’s driving the current (unofficial) bull market in risk.
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Peter Atwater’s book, “The Confidence Map: Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity”: https://peteratwater.com/the-confidence-map-2/ “The Confidence Map” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Confidence-Map-Charting-Chaos-Clarity/dp/0593539559#:~:text=The%20Confidence%20Map%20is%20a,that%20too%20often%20feels%20senseless. ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Blue Sky Optimism Has Gripped The Stock Market (06:13) The Bubble Can ALWAYS Get Bigger (15:56) Sentiment On Recession Has Changed Massively (21:28) The Confidence Map (33:00) Passive Investing (39:09) Finding Extreme Sentiments In Markets (43:04) U.S. Banking System (45:46) The K-Shaped Recovery, 3 Years Later (57:04) Psychology Of The Federal Reserve (01:01:14) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Rory Johnston, oil buff and founder of CommodityContext.com, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he is now “cautiously bullish” on the price of oil because of Saudi Arabia’s significant cuts to its production quota. He also shares in details his reading of crack spreads, crude differentials, speculative positioning, and shape of futures curve. Filmed on July 12th, 2023. ____ Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Johnston’s latest Substacks on Commodity Context: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/120157df-fe5d-45b5-b19a-ed3a8bab88f7 https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/b93afa41-17dc-4d6e-9e75-ea9ca7da95f9 ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:21) An "Exhausting" Oil Market (02:59) The Cautious Bull Case For Oil (11:28) OPEC Cuts Can Support Higher Oil Prices (24:20) Has The Chinese Re-Opening Been A Flop? (31:36) Guyana (34:22) Deconstructing The "Capital Discipline" Narrative About Oil Companies (49:13) The Russian Supply Question (54:55) Price Cap (59:02) Differentials Between Different Types Of Crude Oil (01:03:10) The Washout Of The Way-Too-Long Oil Bulls (01:09:02) Futures Curve (01:15:07) Recession Risk ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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-- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
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(00:00) Introduction (00:20) The Recession That Didn't Show Up (11:35) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability? (20:15) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate (29:45) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits (38:47) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending (46:53) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending (49:20) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No! (01:00:43) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen? (01:06:34) When Recession? — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On todays episode Michael Robbins, CIO of Larson Financial & Professor Of Quantitative Investing at Columbia University joins the show for a discussion on the quantitative investing strategy.
Authoring the book "Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing" Michael takes us back to the very basics in answering what is quantitive investing, what actually causes markets to go up, why most investors are NOT stock pickers and how a quantitive strategy can help manage risk & create sizeable returns. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Referenced In The Show:
Selling Fast and Buying Slow: Heuristics and Trading Performance of Institutional Investors: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29076
Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing: http://quantitativeassetmanagement.com/
Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) What Is Quantitative Investing? (02:24) Selling Fast & Buying Slow (05:26) What Causes Stocks To Go Up? (09:02) Are Rising Rates Actually Bad For Stocks? (15:11) Stock vs Bond Arbitrage Strategies (17:37) The VXX ETF (24:11) Most People Are NOT Stock Pickers (29:54) Risk Management (35:14) What Are The Biggest Mistakes Investors Make? (44:31) Being Early Is The Same As Being Wrong (49:37) What Indicators Are Worth Following With A Quantitative Strategy? (56:41) Liquidity (01:00:07) The Five Factors Of Investing (01:05:55) Investing Using Artificial Intelligence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Steven Kelly, Associate Director of Research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming plans to increase capital requirements for U.S. banks. Filmed on July 11, 2023. ____ Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Kelly’s latest “Without Warning” Substack: https://www.withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-story-of-svb-isnt-just ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (02:45) Bank Capital Ratios, Explained (18:52) Busting Myths About Banks' Interest Rate Hedging (38:15) Accounting For Unrealized Losses (46:56) How Much Money Is Leaving the Banking System? (54:16) U.S. Banking System Is "Stable But More Fragile" (01:02:47) The Basel III Endgame (01:05:54) Interest Rates And Financial Stability ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Vítor Constâncio witnessed firsthand severe recessions, inflationary bouts, and a global financial crisis, as former Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB) (2010 to 2018) and Governor of The Bank of Portugal (1985-1986, 2000-2010). He brings this considerable experience to examine the current challenges facing central bankers at the ECB as well as the Fed. Constâncio argues that while U.S. inflation is driven by a strong demand generated by loose fiscal policy, the primary agent of European inflation was the surge in energy prices in 2022. However, he recognizes that what began as supply-side pressure has broadened out to other sectors of the Euro area economy, so the ECB’s hiking of interest rates to 4% was necessary. Constancio expects that a mild recession in Europe will tame inflation and that substantial further rate hikes from the ECB will likely not be needed. Filmed on July 6, 2023. ____ Follow Vítor Constâncio on Twitter https://twitter.com/VMRConstancio Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Euro Area Inflation Is Mostly Due To Energy Shock, Not Demand (08:13) I Would Support A Pause In Interest Rate Hikes, Says Constancio (10:11) Recession In Europe Is Likely For 2023 (14:35) ECB Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates During A Mild Recession (16:20) There Pressure on The European Central Bank (ECB) To Follow The Federal Reserve? (20:44) Exploring The Logic Of Negative Interest Rates (25:29) Interest Rates' Impact On The Economy (32:04) Fixed vs. Floating Mortgages (34:48) ECB's Reaction Function During The 2008 Great Financial Crisis (44:16) Recent Bank Failures (Silicon Valley Bank) (49:51) Credit Suisse (51:51) Basel III Regulation of Held-To-Matuity Accounts and Interest Rate Hedging (54:47) Fighting Inflation In 1970s Portugal ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Jay Shabat Senior Analyst at Skift & Author of both Airline Weekly & Railroad Weekly joins the show for a discussion on the state of the Airline & Railroad industries in 2023.
After the pandemic shock of 2020, Jay walks through how the ensuing 3 years have shaped the industries stating that airline demand continues surging, but freight demand is painting a different picture. Does airline & railroad demand give a useful insight into the health of the U.S economy? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Follow Airline Weekly: https://airlineweekly.com/ Follow Railroad Weekly: https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:52) The State Of Airlines In 2023 (03:09) How The Pandemic Impacted The Airline Industry (10:32) We're Not Seeing An Economic Slowdown Yet (20:40) International Travel (25:06) Why Airlines Aren't A Great Business (29:15) The Airline Industry Would Have Gone Bankrupt If Not For Government Assistance (36:20) The State Of Freight In 2023 (51:44) Consolidation In The Freight Industry (57:40) What Can Freight Tell Us About The U.S Economy? (01:10:02) How Do Airlines Hedge? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Edward Chancellor, distinguished investor, financial historian, and author, joins Forward Guidance to discuss his latest book “The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest.” Chancellor shares with host Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) how artificially low interest rates can distort markets and foment bubbles.“The Price of Time”: https://www.amazon.com/Price-Time-Real-Story-Interest/dp/0802160069 ____ Follow Edward Chancellor on Twitter https://twitter.com/chancellor_e?lang=en Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12/featured Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Ultra-Low Interest Rates Cause Asset Bubbles (11:03) The History Of The Gold Standard (18:54) Deflation Isn't Always Bad (30:06) Negative Interest Rates Are A Tax On Capital (37:17) Low-Rates Boost Venture Capital and Private Equity (45:27) I'm Fairly Dubious About Cryptos (46:44) Unicorns and Zombies (54:20) Elite Overproduction (57:39) How High Can Interest Rates Go? ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, many investors have been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s recent lending to U.S. banks, which amounts to roughly $100 Billion as of late June. What has received far less attention is the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, which has extended over $1 Trillion of liquidity (10x the Fed!) to banks throughout the U.S. Kathryn Judge, Harvey J. Goldschmid Professor of Law at Columbia Law School, joins Forward Guidance to explain the history and purpose of the FHLBanks, calling them the “lender of second-to-last resort.” Judge argues that the FHLB system has grown beyond its original mission and that reform is desperately needed. Judge also opines on the SEC’s move to regulate crypto, as well as SOFR’s replacement of LIBOR. Filmed on June 29th, 2023. ____ Follow Kathryn Judge on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfKateJudge Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Kathryn Judge’s book, “Direct: The Rise of the Middleman Economy and the Power of Going to the Source”: https://kathrynjudge.com/books/direct “The Problem Lender of Second-to-Last Resort”: https://prospect.org/economy/2023-03-29-problem-lender-federal-home-loan-banks/ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Timestamps: (00:00) U.S. Banking System Is "Uneven" (03:06) What Is The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) System? (07:24) Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s (11:22) Commercial Banks vs. Thrifts (And Glass–Steagall) (17:31) FHLB Lending During Great Financial Crisis (GFC) (25:14) "FHLB Has Never Lost Money On Advances" (33:54) FHLB's "Abuses" Must Stop (34:28) Permissionless (41:24) What Will New Bank Regulation Look Like? (50:38) Risk-Weighting In Bank Capital Regulations (53:42) Blockworks Research (54:42) Held-To-Maturity Accounting (58:37) The Rise Of Middlemen in Finance And Business (01:06:00) SEC's War With Crypto (01:08:04) The End Of LIBOR Eurodollar Contracts
-- On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Alexander Stahel, Founder & CIO at Burggraben Holding AG join the show for a discussion on the current state of global macro & how those current macro factors are impacting energy markets. Turning bearish on oil in late 2022, Michael & Alex were able to sidestep the current downward price action experienced in 2023. Expecting macro headwinds and a less bullish setup in the supply & demand fundamentals, Michael & Alex walk through what the oil bulls got wrong & what to expect in the second half of 2023. Michael also shares his framework for the U.S dollar wrecking ball, which seems to be claiming its most recent victims over in Asia, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Alexander: https://twitter.com/BurggrabenH Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (06:37) Why The Oil Bulls Were Wrong In 2023 (13:47) Did Russian Sanctions Actually Impact Oil Supply? (23:43) Forecasting Oil Prices (31:05) European Gas Prices (33:37) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:41) Lessons From The Asian Financial Crisis (41:34) Chinese Oil Demand (01:01:33) Why We're Not In An Oil Bull Market (01:17:23) Oil Has Further Downside Risk (01:24:13) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.
As economic data & growth remains resilient, markets continue rallying despite negative sentiment coming into the year. We discuss whats in store for the second half of the year & whether the Fed will get their soft landing? — Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
To get $1,000 off an annual subscription to QI Pro, Danielle DiMartino Booth’s institutional-grade research service, go to https://quillintelligence.com/register/qi-pro-friends-of-farley/.
$3,000 instead of $4,000 for the first year, offer ends in July. Interested parties may request a sample report of QI Pro by emailing Danielle DiMartino Booth at danielle@dimartinobooth.com.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance on a mission to dispute the notion that the U.S. economy is strong.
Booth challenges the apparently-rosy economic data and points to where the data is either very lagging or, as she says about the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) data, “painfully corrupted.”
Booth explains why she expects inflation to continue to fall very sharply, and why she expects the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates at least one more time in July (and perhaps again in September). Filmed on June 20, 2023.
Follow Danielle: https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) Laying Inflation To Rest (07:43) Shortages Have Become Gluts (09:32) Housing Is Strong, Right? (14:04) Hidden Cracks In The Labor Market (16:49) Official Bureau of Labor Data Is "Painfully Corrupted" (24:23) Global Economic Impulse Is Disinflationary (28:56) Liquidity Is NOT Increasing, Says Danielle (35:04) QI Pro Discount (39:06) Fed Will Likely Hike Rates In July (And Maybe September), Says Danielle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
__ Today’s special guest is a true expert in global money. Robert McCauley’s life work on the international monetary system is authoritative and seminal, and he joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang to answer questions such as: - how do Eurodollars actually work? - is the rest of the world long or short dollars? (the answer may surprise you) - how does the level of the dollar mechanically impact offshore dollar credit? McCauley confirms many rumors about Eurodollars (offshore dollars), as well as debunks several of their myths. He shares his view on the dollar’s role in the future of global money, and he details the astronomically large sums in the FX swap market used to hedge dollar exposure. McCauley also asks Joseph Wang a question about the fall of LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) and the rise of SOFR (secured overnight financing rate). Filmed on June 21, 2023. Robert McCauley is the Senior Fellow at the Global Economic Governance Initiative at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. He previously served as senior advisor to the monetary & economics department at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), as well as at the New York Fed.
Robert McCauley’s Eighth Edition of “Manias, Panics, and Crashes”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2023/03/22/manias-panics-and-crashes-a-history-of-financial-crises/ On Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/303116007X Robert McCauley’s papers referenced during the show: “The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions”: https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/02/09/the-global-domain-of-the-dollar-eight-questions/ “Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf “Seven decades of international banking”: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2109e.pdf “The International Economic and Financial Order After the Pandemic and War,” pages 123-128: https://media.iese.edu/research/pdfs/76606.pdf “London as a financial centre since Brexit: evidence from the 2022 BIS Triennial Survey”: https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull65.pdf Joseph Wang’s latest piece on SOFR (paywalled): https://fedguy.com/long-live-sofr/
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Joseph Wang’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12 -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
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Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) Origin Of The Eurodollar System (19:46) Eurodollar Deposits Rarely Take Losses, But Silicon Valley Bank's Eurodollars Are In Limbo And May Be Lost (26:12) Can Non-U.S. Banks Print Dollar Deposits At Will? (39:50) Banking As A Percentage of GDP Peaked Many Years Ago (43:14) Is The Rest Of The World Long Dollars, Or Short Dollars? (53:49) Is The De-Dollarization Narrative Just A Lot Of Hot Air? (01:11:49) Who's Going To Buy U.S. Treasurys? (01:20:38) The Dollar's Role Does Not Give The U.S. An "Exorbitant Privilege" (01:24:29) $35 Trillion Dollar Hidden Debt Via FX Swaps (01:38:05) Robert McCauley's Question For Joseph Wang On SOFR & LIBOR -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With the VIX at a 3-year low, Kris Sidial, tail risk manager & co-chief investment officer of The Ambrus Group, returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack about what it’s like hedging tail risk during a volatility bear market (bull market in risk, bear market in vol).
Sidial sheds light on the spectacular rise of Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options and explains why he thinks their proliferation poses a serious risk to market structure. That being said, Sidial thinks implied volatility could continue to decline for a while. Filmed on June 23, 2023.
Follow Kris Sidial on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Ambrus’ paper on Zero Day To Expiration (0DTE) Options: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5f6299603ceb25330f902e7d/t/644beff4e8d2ee6519d85da2/1682698232481/Ambrus+Capital+-+Dispelling+False+Narratives+About+0DTE+Options.pdf -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
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Timecodes: (00:16) Market Volatility Is At A Three-Year Low (07:34) Implied Volatility Could Go Even Lower (15:14) Tail Risk Strategies (36:01) The Stunning Rise Of Zero Days To Expiration (0DTE) Options (41:29) Huge Amounts Of Unregulated Leverage In 0DTE Options (52:31) Market Crash Is "Inevitable" Because Of Zero Day To Expiration Options (01:04:14) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk (01:07:52) Performance Reporting of Tail Fund Risk Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46mn1n3 Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX __ This episode is taken from the weekly roundup edition of the On The Margin podcast hosted by Mike Ippolito where we discuss the biggest news stories of the week.
With Bitcoin breaking past $30,000, equity indices reaching new bull market territory and many speculating that the Fed has finished hiking, we walk through the liquidity backdrop and if we are entering a new bull market, or not? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! — Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital returns to Forward Guidance with a much-needed update on global liquidity.
Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:02) Rising Liquidity Is Supporting A New Bull Market (07:07) Are Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) and Yield Curve Control Already Here? (27:06) We're In A Liquidity Cycle Upturn (32:42) Falling Inflation Has Boosted Liquidity & Price / Earnings (P/E) Multiples (40:58) Liquidity Is Rising In China & Japan (47:20) Howell's Not Very Bullish On Bonds (54:53) Stocks Will Likely Continue To Outperform Bonds (56:06) When Will The Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates? (01:00:08) Internals Of Stock Market Indicate Global Economic Slowdown Is Likely Already Behind Us (01:03:00) Liquidity Is High In Chinese Financial System (01:13:25) Inflows Into Emerging Markets Are "Very Unusual" (01:16:20) How To Measure Bank of Japan's Liquidity Injections (01:17:25) Bank of England (BOE) and European Central Bank (ECB) Are Less Important Than Fed & People's Bank of China (PBOC) (01:18:29) The Fiscal Endgame (Rates Have To Stay High To Prevent Further Debt Build-up) (01:31:42) When Will Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE) Turn Into Outright QE? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
___ Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ___ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ___ Timestamps: (00:58) "A Lot Of The Optionality of SPACs Is Dead" (17:25) State of SPAC Dealflow In Summer 2023 (32:08) Warrant Arbitrage (59:43) SPAC LIquidiation Wave in December 2022 Because of Stock Buyback Tax Threat In Inflation Reduction Act (01:06:49) "SPACs Are A Bull Market Product" (01:20:02) How SPAC Yields Have Changed With RIsing Interest Rates (01:29:17) Macroeconomic Implications (01:32:07) View on Banks (01:38:26) Cannabis ___ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her views on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its hiking of interest rates. Filmed on June 14, 2023, after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference for the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's episode of Forward Guidance we invite Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro for a discussion on Powell's press conference post FOMC. With Tuesday's CPI report coming in-line with expectations, the Fed Funds rate now rests above the year over year inflation number. The number one question market participants are now asking themselves is will the Fed continue to hike, or is the hiking cycle about to reverse? Luckily, we have the perfect guest to help answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Robert Steven Kaplan, former President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, joins Forward Guidance to share his views on the U.S. economy, banking system, and the Fed itself. Filmed on June 12, 2023, two days before the end of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).Robert Kaplan’s website: https://www.robertstevenkaplan.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Timestamps: (00:22) Pause Likely at June Fed Meeting, According To Market Pricing (01:16) Why Kaplan Voted Against Ultra-Loose Monetary Policy (September 2020 Dissent re: Forward Guidance & Flexible Average Inflation Targeting) (05:02) Fed Has Slammed On The Brakes (06:40) Did Fed Action Exacerbate Banking Stress? (15:13) How Fed Thinks About Inverted Yield Curves (16:53) Global Economic Recovery, April 2020 to Present (24:02) Did The Fed "Monetize" The U.S. Debt? (25:10) Future Economic Outlook (29:25) In-Depth Thoughts On Banking Turmoil (39:36) Deposit Outflows Will Depend on The Credit Cycle (41:32) Interal Politics At The Federal Reserve (50:56) Fed Cuts Are Off The Table For Now (53:08) How Closely Does Fed React To Stock Market (vs. Credit Market)? (55:08) Inflation, Oil, and Energy Policy (59:34) Venture Philanthropy & Venture Capital (01:02:41) Closing Thoughts
On todays episode of Forward Guidance Eric Crittenden Chief Investment Officer at Standpoint Asset Management joins the show for a deep dive into the world of systematic macro investing.
Eric walks through the current market outlook as many investors battle with recessionary concerns, but an equity market that continues climbing higher. Using a macro trend strategy and focusing on term structure, trend & liquidity, Eric explains how a systematic approach can help generate returns, as he was able to outperform the index since the launch of Standpoint in 2020. Finally, Eric shares his outlook for a variety of assets that his macro trend strategy is signalling both bullish & bearish signs for, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Standpoint Asset Management https://twitter.com/StandpointFunds Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Timestamps:
(00:00) Finding Opportunities Using A Macro Trend Strategy (04:21) Why Eric Has Been Long Japan, U.S & Europe In 2023 (08:54) Generating Returns Using A Quantitative Strategy (15:27) How Market Structure Has Changed Since The 1980's (18:06) Shorting Oil In 2023 (20:45) Permissionless (21:22) Market Hedging (27:53) Market Liquidity (29:49) Launching Standpoint In 2020 (33:18) Artificial Intelligence (39:49) Blockworks Research (40:49) Harvesting Risk Premium (49:51) Eric's Principles For Successful Trading (55:19) What Will AI's Role Be In Financial Markets? (59:39) The Psychology Of Macro Trend (01:03:39) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return.
Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023.
Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoans Toohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3D Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market (27:25) Permissionless (28:03) Commercial Real Estate (35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs (41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument 44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending" (51:49) Blockworks Research (52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020 (57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses (01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks (01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates? (01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit (01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds?
Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year. Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023.
Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble? 28:21 The Lipstick Effect 32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified? 41:57 Permissionless 42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence 50:43 Blockworks Research
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down.
Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks: “Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat “Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable “Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit “SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities ____ Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerr Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.--Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market(05:08) The U.S. Auto Market(13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next?(24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market(30:30) Tesla(33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream?(45:23) Europe's Auto Market(51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles(01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers(01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance(01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global).
Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability.
Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrm Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global? (02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008 (11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds? (20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX (23:29) Cross-Margining (32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades (40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades (43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM (47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate (53:59) The Fed's Dilemma (58:51) The Repo Market in 2022 __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX. James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud. He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James’ writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/ James’ piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolvent James’ piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift __ Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburg Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___
This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.
__ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45) "Is Alameda Research Insolvent?" (03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius (12:35) Binance (15:01) Crypto Contagion (19:13) Curve Ad (20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis (35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From? (40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With? (45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:35) Scott Freeman's Background (04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015 (09:06) Crypto in 2020 (12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022 (15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto (19:23) Where Does Yield Come From? (20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising? (22:07) Algorand Ad (23:52) Alameda & FTX (29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried (34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges (39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es) (40:13) General Market Outlook (42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) (49:07) Is There A Silver Lining? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline.
Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Hari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance (04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful? (13:26) The Shadow Banking System (17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks (19:12) Curve Ad (25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative? (27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX (38:56) Leverage Within Crypto (42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners (44:36) Volatility In 2022 (58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market (01:04:27) The Role Of Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.
They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability. William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/ Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Academic papers referenced: "Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8 "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling: https://rb.gy/robwk2 -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Looking Back At 2022 (04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions (11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error" (23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models? (25:25) Algorand Ad (27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do? (40:43) The Debt Trap (46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake? (54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap (58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money (01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here (01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.
-- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj About Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/ Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/ Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Financialization Of Everything (10:27) Private Markets (17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained (19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense (26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail (38:41) Stocks and Volatility (41:53) "Ignore The VIX" (45:19) Tail Risk (50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks? (01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market (01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen (01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts (01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays (01:26:00) Basis Risk __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists.
McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so.
NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX.
Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:15) We're Going Down" (05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto (07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil (11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked? (22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand? (26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic? (29:42) Forward Curve In Oil (38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession (47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil? (50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation (55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g -- Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges. Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTX’s rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (“CZ”) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (“tradfi”) world. __
Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebach Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
__
Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:54) Overview of FTX's Problems (02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet (09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto (13:16) Possible Outcomes (16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets? (20:25) Risk Of Contagion (27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background (30:42) About Blockworks Research (31:49) Closing Thoughts __
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In the November FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jay Powell stated that while the pace of economic growth is slowing, indicators point to modest growth in spending and production this quarter.
Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the economy is slowing much, much faster than the Federal Reserve’s models indicate.
Tchir tells Jack Farley how brewing geopolitical tension between China and the U.S. will likely continue to weigh upon financial markets, and he shares his insights on energy markets in the U.S. and Europe.
Follow Peter Tchir on Twitter https://twitter.com/TFMkts Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) "I Would Disagree With Powell" On The U.S. Economy (06:03) "Credit Bubbles Only Happen With Safe Assets" (08:17) Layoffs In Big Tech (12:17) This Will Be A Deep And Lasting Recession (14:31) The Semiconductor Industry (20:34) China (33:52) Energy (36:56)) Regulation of Fossil Fuels (40:41) When Will The Drawdown of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Stop? (44:27) Will Europe's Energy Problems Cause A Recession? (48:26) The Strong Dollar Is Destabalizing The Global Financial System (59:30) The Increasing Political Pressure On The Federal Reserve -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.
Paul Hodges, author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share the grim tidings from the chemicals industry, whose troubles Hodges argues are indicating that consumer demand will slow rapidly around the globe. After reviewing how and why the chemicals industry is a bellwether for the global economy, Hodges tells Jack Farley how the collapse in chemical prices is a harbinger for a severe global recession. Unrelenting high energy prices, which are a key input to chemical production, are making the chemical refining business even more challenging. Hodges and Farley also discuss the future of inflation and how it is affected by central banks, geopolitics, and demographics.
Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.
Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:51) Chemicals Market Is Indicating The Recession Will Be Deep (14:03) The Mood Is Grim" In The Chemicals Business (19:21) Demographics Are Not Helping! (23:25) The Yield Curve Is Not The Be-All End-All (32:35) Chemical Prices Are Collapsing (40:04) Has Inflation Peaked? (44:44) In A Recession, Earnings Go Down (46:19) The Fed Put Is No More (52:51) A Food Crisis Is Brewing (55:46) Oil and Natural Gas (01:03:31) How Will Europe Handle This Winter? (01:11:17) There Is Considerable Downside Risk" (01:14:42) Discount To pH Report, Paul Hodges' Research Service -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ___ Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com ___ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/
Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting (04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg (12:57) Strong Labor Market (19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December? (23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert (31:05) Is A Soft Landing Still Possible? (43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022) (51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos
Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd.
______ Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj ______ Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747
Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/
Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181
Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614
Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/
Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/ ______ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ ______ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting (11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong (19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet (28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak" (31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback (31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target? (46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates? (49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell (56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet?
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ______
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration.
Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022. __ Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary (17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory (27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression (39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly (46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks? (51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep? (57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF) (01:02:51) Energy (01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market (01:14:44) Brazil and Gold (01:16:40) Favorite Books
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. ___
Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices. Filmed on October 26, 2022.
Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19 Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguy Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksres Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj
Sign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/
-- Timestamps; (00:00) Intro (00:25) Macro and Crypto (03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market (10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve (28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast (30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups (36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos (44:55) Bitcoin (52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions
Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade.
Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks.
Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollar
Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj _
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures.
1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets.
Filmed on October 20th, 2022.
Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot? (26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet (33:45) Recession Risk (35:24) Asset Allocation (38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets (45:45) Energy (53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising? (01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot.
__ Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj __ Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:21) The Housing Recession (09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck (19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic? (23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex (24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking (26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue (31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022" (43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market? (48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing (51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature" (53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move? (58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S. --
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake.
Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___ -- Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “Algorand Promotion” (00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize (04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake? (14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (28:02) “Algorand Promotion” (29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out? (30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake? (37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field (52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation" (54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It? (57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market? (01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent? (01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008" (01:37:34) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment.
Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.
Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppy Follow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Seawolfcap Follow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COM Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
More info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) “KEDM promotion” (00:51) Intro (01:07) Overall Macro Thesis (11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (16:06) The Bull Case For Oil (22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting (30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong" (35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment (40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil (55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season (1:02:41) A Market Crash (1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM) (1:11:19) “KEDM promotion” (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans.
That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14.
Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0e Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
(00:00) “Bittrex Ad” (00:10) Intro (00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks (03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over" (07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend) (09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning (12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be? (16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business (21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (23:18) “Bittrex Ad” (23:49) Winter For Investment Banking (27:48) The Biggest Risks (30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat (35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses? (47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America (55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession? (58:09) FinTech (59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS) (01:01:51) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Filmed on October 11, 2022. When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 weren’t under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850). __ George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) intro (03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis (16:20) The Labor Market (20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) (22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over (27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?' (30:51) The Bull Case (34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong (39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue? (47:03) Cash Is King (50:33) Bad News Is Bad News (58:51) When Will The Market Bottom? (01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve. Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration. Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022. -- Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex -- Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztp Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4 Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfzi Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj. -- Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzo Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw
Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- (00:00) Introduction (01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over? (11:57) Risks in The Stock Market (13:53) When Will Powell Pivot? (18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken (20:37) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:08) “Bittrex Ad” (28:42) What Will Be The First To Break? (28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off (34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds (40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market (48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do? (52:33) Questions From The Audience (55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves (59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market (1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money? (1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility (1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg? (1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To? (1:09:31) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit
Greg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book, American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street’s Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous “robber baron” and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Gould’s unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of America’s most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Gould’s life.
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter -- (00:00) Introduction (00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould? (04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds (07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market (14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era (16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick" (20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022 (24:50) Jay Gould and the Media (27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated? (29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed" (33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century (37:03) Investor Psychology (41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould (45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies? (46:48) Gould and Valuation (49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy (52:46) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit
Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (“gilt”) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of England’s injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to “pivoting” to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th.
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Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU
(00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market (08:53) What's Next To Break? (15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)? (19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous" (33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels? (36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks (38:47) I’m Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here" (51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend (57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed (1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto (1:04:49) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade “flat to down” in the short-term as he notes that China’s zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023. He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S.’ stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%. -- Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_Johnston Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing? (05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk (12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil (16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil (36:18) The Gasoline Crisis (39:56) Coal (42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets (46:57) European Electricity Prices (50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics (54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil (1:02:18) U.S. Shale (1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up? (1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil? (1:16:35) About Commodity Context (1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment (1:20:57) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to “break” as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022.
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Follow Peter Crane on Twitter https://twitter.com/cranedata Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting (04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund? (14:37) What Will Break? (18:41) Maturity & Composition (25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds? (27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT) (31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds? (39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds (43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing") (51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First? (1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity? (1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins (1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities (1:12:16) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But that’s only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a “discount rate,” which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an “equity risk premium.” Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022.
Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation
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-- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) The "Sleep Test" (03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations (19:43) Equity Duration (40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies (44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks (52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values (59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value (1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit.
Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDAS
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment.
Filmed on September 6, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction (01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued (11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent (16:02) Energy (20:52) Fixed Income (28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates (32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve? (41:44) Contrarian View -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/
Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will “crush” speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions.
Filmed on September 8, 2022.
Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter (04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation (06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed" (08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy (14:43) Natural Gas (16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming (21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021 (25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom (27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil (31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks (36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve (40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?" (48:25) The Dollar (56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation (58:40) Jared's Book & Concert --
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Fed’s reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns. Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this “false dawn” is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug “leaks” in the financial plumbing. Filmed on September 7, 2022. -- Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets (10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months (15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting (24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model (32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices (38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance (43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap" (53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime (57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds (1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? --
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more.
McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken.
Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen? (12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud (19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity (23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets (31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect (34:34) The Energy Crisis (46:00) Green Energy (48:20) McLean's New Book (49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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-- Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the “father of financial futures” because he created the world’s first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks.
Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called “eurodollar futures”) are still pegged has been “discredited” by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his company’s benchmark, AMERIBOR.
Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.asp More info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._Sandor
Follow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandor Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future (18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market (24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility (27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes" (35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) (47:44) Carbon Futures -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minsky” and writer of the “Soon Parted” newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole a “great performance.”
Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various “repo” rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted.
Filmed on August 31, 2022.
Link to Daniel Neilson’s piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defrag Link to Daniel Neilson’s piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cash
Follow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilson Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Daniel Neilson’s writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/ __ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole (09:54) Inflation Expectations (17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)? (29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced) (49:37) Tornado Cash -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/ -- NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole.
Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael “Mish” Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could “kill” the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as “cowardly” caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, “this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.” NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole.
Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEA Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Mish Shedlock’s writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/ Mish’s article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-july July FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Are We In A Recession Already? (05:48) Housing (15:00) Stagflation (19:58)The Stock Market (21:12) The Wang Pivot (29:27) The Commercial Banking System (35:16) Asset Allocation (36:51) Gold (39:53) The Pension Crisis -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more. -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds? (05:00) An Example (19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity (33:13) Current Valuations (50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds (55:20) Current Outlook (1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls (1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds (1:09:33) The Federal Reserve (1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future. -- Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano Follow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation (15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry (22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes) (23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply (29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) (33:30) Learning From History (38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates (44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now? (47:11) Non-Owner Operators (52:26) Cruise Lines (1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates? (1:03:08) Individual Stocks -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Fed’s balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a “buyback” program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QT’s volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue.
Filmed on August 17, 2022.
Read Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “The Marginal Buyer”: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Chris Whalen’s work can be found here: rcwhalen.com -- (00:00) Introduction (01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks (21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market (25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test" (43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility (48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem (59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates? (1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federal’s Reserve’s withdrawal of monetary accommodation.
Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (06:02) Are We In A Recession? (14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve (22:25) Liquidity (33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance (41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields (46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit
https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not “inflation” as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks.
Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (“RenMinBi”) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022.
Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Timecodes: (00:00) Introduction (09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation (11:06) The Energy Crisis (19:13) Paul Volcker (21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving" (28:09) The Eurodollar System (34:08) Is The Fed Effective (39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si…
Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins. Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out. Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co. -- Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustToken Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain (07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain (17:05) Stablecoins (23:26) Tether (26:08) TrustToken's Structure (38:05) Lending Terms (47:34) Interest Rate Risks (49:13) Fee Structure (53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss (57:25) Lender Protections (59:45) Correlation Risk (1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others" (1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending (1:13:57) The Fed -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up -- Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession? Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022. -- Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashami Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market (12:37) Inventory (16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's (22:06) Rates (31:51) Signs of a Recession (48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market (55:38) The State of Housing (1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/
Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis. Filmed on August 4, 2022. -- Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvest Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ -- In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the “commodity supercycle” thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in “intermission” because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (“duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar.
Filmed on August 1, 2022.
Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerception Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing (10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall? (21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone? (26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. (31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy? (37:02) European Stocks (38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over? (45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue (51:40) Term Premium, Explained (57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation (1:02:08) Potential Hedges (1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/ --
Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out! Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting). – Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions (07:09) Forward Volatility (10:53) New Outlooks (19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade (22:00) Navigating High Environments (27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio (33:15) The Nature Of Money (37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility (44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors (49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed (54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market (57:05) Short Squeezes (1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies (1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this!
Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity) (15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs (33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth" (35:26) Shorting SPACs (48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC) (50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies (53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes (56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders (1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT). Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve.
Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation. -- Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!) -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:01) A Slowing Economy (06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly? (10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden (15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike? (19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization (36:05) The Crypto World (37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities (42:18) China (48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth (51:59) China Is Running Out of Dollars (57:48) The Dollar Milkshake (1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities. Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia. -- Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrl Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections (04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets (06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas? (11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand (14:09) Structural Supply Deficit (16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing (23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money? (24:30) Comparing Profit Margins (26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities (31:40) The Shorter Term (33:22) Commodities (35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm (37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates (39:30) Coal (41:03) Hedging Issues (43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities (48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks (49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation (53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally don’t have. What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors. -- Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbes Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Macro at Centerfin (03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor (08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed (18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble (22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds (30:30) Distressed Bonds (32:41) Thinking About Size (38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital (41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make (44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin? (47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto (53:36) Macro Hedge Funds -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more. Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But that’s not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections.
Filmed on July 7, 2022.
Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreece Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle (11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble (18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation (21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle (28:54) Bit.com Ad (29:25) Recession on a Global Scale (32:10) PMIs (37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation (45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve (46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle (49:17) Asset Allocation (58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio (1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity (1:04:58) Are We In A Recession? (1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Link to Rick Rule’s Symposium on Natural Resource Investing: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorks
Rick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: don’t overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register. Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe. Filmed on July 5, 2022. -- Follow Rick Rule on Twitter https://twitter.com/RealRickRule Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:29) Commodity Thesis (04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession (10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand? (14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe (35:20) Natural Resource Symposium (39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned (48:53) Uranium (55:00) Natural Gas (57:07) Specific Stocks (1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks (1:04:58) Copper and Iron (1:07:32) Hedging (1:13:10) Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.
Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.
Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The World's Third Depression (14:25) Recession Trends (16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression (24:25) Banker Greed (30:28) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Speculation During A Depression (34:31) Inflation (44:23) The Euro Dollar System (51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System (53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy (1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/ Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ =- (00:00) Introduction (00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth (07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021 (11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario (17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies (33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs (40:50) Risk of Recession (46:58) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.
Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.
Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValek Follow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Referenced In The Show:
2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (00:28) Background (06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble (26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time (40:45) Bit.com (41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook (54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook (1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot? (1:14:00) Counterparty Risk -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy?
Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions.
Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearch Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/ -- (00:00) Introduction (02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling (05:00) What Is A Recession? (07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation (09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing (17:36) Timeline of a Recession (24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex (32:13) Demographics and Inflation (41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation (53:45) Conclusion -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.
Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.
Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluard Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections (19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect (24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating (29:20) Looking at Economic Trends (35:02) Bit.com Ad (35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution (40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs (42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies (46:50) Zombie Companies (48:45) The Big Tech Companies (53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year (59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve (1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors (1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries (1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades (1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ (1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market (1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level.
We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifert Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:15) Background (05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders (08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off (13:57) The VIX (19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk (24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market (28:00) Single-Stock Volatility (33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers? (39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility (48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx") (55:35) Common Options Mistakes (1:01:00) The Macro (1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a “collar” a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the “fireworks” in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022. -- Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvex Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterday’s action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Fed’s revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022.
Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Alfonso Peccatiello’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details -- The Fed’s June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdf The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop? (09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate (12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock (17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation? (23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation (29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio? (41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Fed’s much-desired “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices.
Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (“R*”), financial repression, and demand destruction.
Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDale Follow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDI Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter ____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro? (04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy? (10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing (21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation? (26:20) Bit.com Ad (26:52) The End Of Free Money (29:54) Europe (34:14) Shorting Equities (38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro" (44:07) Asset Allocation -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022. Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.com Joseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/ Alf’s latest piece, “The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE,” can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#details Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets.
Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more.
This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Michel Howell on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe To Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (00:28) What Is Liquidity? (09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity (13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window (24:50) Is This Unprecedented? (28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile? (30:16) The Fed And The VIX (33:16) Inflation and Recession (36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do? (39:20) Gold and Crypto (41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role (45:17) The People's Bank of China (46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have? (49:12) The Commercial Banking System (53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed? (1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations (1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit? (1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity" (1:12:55) China (1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack is joined by none other than the Convexity Maven himself, Harley Bassman, who shares why he is “wildly” bullish on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) even as the Federal Reserve is in the process of reducing its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT).
Bassman explains why long-term interest rates have shot up by so much and makes the case that, while he is confident that inflation will continue to run hot, the sell-off in long-duration Treasurys may not continue. Bassman goes on to explain the significance of the spike in interest rate volatility as measured by the MOVE Index, his creation, and shares several investment theses on municipal bonds and equity LEAPs. Filmed on Friday, June 3, 2022.
Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ConvexityMaven Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Referenced In The Show:
“The Water Is Warm In The MBS Pool”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Convexity-Maven-MBS-Pool.pdf
“Fire Insurance - Revisited”: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Convexity-Maven-Fire-Insurance-Revisited.pdf -- Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (01:18) Historic Bond Sell-Off (09:48) Credit Vol (17:14) Is There A Powell Put On Credit? (21:56) Is Quantitative Tightening (QT) Money Burning? (25:05) Bit.com Ad (33:49) Yield Curve Inversion (41:26) Outlook on Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (44:59) Pre-Payment and Extension Risk (51:42) Will MBS Convexity Humble the Fed? (1:00:08) Bassman's Highest Conviction View (1:03:38) Municipal Bonds (1:04:42) Longer-Dated Calls on Equity Indices -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Today Jack welcomes Michael Kao, retired hedged manager and private investor, on Forward Guidance for a wide-ranging conversation on liquidity, energy markets, cryptocurrency, and convertible bond arbitrage.
Kao argues that risk assets have benefited from a “liquidity lottery” of quantitative easing and low rates, and that as a result financial markets are in a huge bubble that reminds him of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. Kao explains why he is skeptical about the value of digital assets, and he does a deep dive into the capital structure of MicroStrategy ($MSTR). Important disclosure: Kao recently entered a short position in $MSTR.
Kao is a veteran investor with a wealth of expertise in options pricing, commodity trading, convertible bond arbitrage, and global macro. He has over three decades of investing experience at Goldman Sachs, Canyon Capital Advisors, as well as Akanthos Capital Management, his own hedge fund. Nothing in this podcast should be considered as investment advice. Filmed on June 2, 2022. -- Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter
To get in touch with Jack Farley about sponsoring Forward Guidance, email jack@blockworks.co.
(00:00) Introduction (00:46) Michael Kao's Background (08:30) The New Dotcom Bubble 2.0 (22:50) The Rho Hedge War Story From 2008 (29:16) Will The Fed Pivot? Can The Fed Pivot? (34:45) MMT (42:05) The Energy Crisis (49:16) The Black Swan For American Oil (59:09) Speculative Bubbles As Inflation Capacitors (1:02:12) How Do You Value Crypto? (1:10:05) Housing Bubble? (1:11:14) Will QT Steepen The Yield Curve? (1:14:38) Digital Assets (1:18:00) How MicroStrategy Funds Its Bitcoin Purchases (1:28:58) "He's Not In Trouble Right Now" -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of “A Colossal Failure Of Common Sense,” thinks that those who take the Federal Reserve at its word are making a serious error. McDonald wastes little time to argue that the Federal Reserve’s assurances that it will tighten monetary policy (by raising rates and reducing its balance sheet) amount to little more than a “sham”: a series of promises that it can never keep, because doing so would plunge the United States into a deep recession.
McDonald explains that, while he does not expect the S&P 500 to reach a new high for several years, he is anticipating a sharp rally in risk assets as the Federal Reserve tones down its hawkish rhetoric and abandons the most extreme of its measures to moderate inflation. McDonald argues that this supportive liquidity environment will drag the U.S. Dollar down and give an even greater lift to the ongoing bull market in energy as well as other hard assets such as gold. Filmed on May 31, 2022. -- Larry McDonald on Twitter https://twitter.com/larry_macdonald Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction (01:50) Can The Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? (04:36) The Fed's Choice Between Stagflation and a Recession (09:39) How High Can The Fed Get? (19:27) Dot-com Bubble 2.0? (24:23) Outlook on S&P 500 (27:25) Bit.Com (27:55) The Energy Trade (31:44) Have We Reached Full Panic Mode Yet? (34:45) Commercial Real Estate (36:52) Shorting The U.S. Dollar (41:27) Inflation and Deglobalization (45:08) ESG Investing (49:25) Global Recession -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Josh Young is the founder and chief investment officer of Bison Interests, an energy investment fund whose returns since October 2020 are ranked #1 in the HFM database. Young argues that, despite the phenomenal performance of the energy sector over the past 18 months, there are upstream producers that remain extremely undervalued relative to their current cash flows.
Young explains why he thinks many of the major oil companies are “burning capital” and why he prefers smaller producers that are not on the radar of many investors flooding into the space. He shares his views on ESG, divestment, and the idea of a “carbon bubble.” This conversation is not investment advice. Filmed on May 27, 2022. -- Follow Josh Young on Twitter https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1 Follow Bison Interests on Twitter https://twitter.com/BisonInterests Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (00:10) Background (01:01) Supply Constraints (21:38) Is Energy Investing Just A Bet On The Price Of Oil? (33:04) Risks To The Energy Trade (56:14) Company-Specific Analysis (1:17:14) Is There A Carbon Bubble? -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Paul Hodges returns in a deep discussion on inflation, China, and the Federal Reserve. Paul joins Jack Farley to discuss recession and recession risk in Europe, China, and the U.S., as well as the fate of inflated hyper-growth stocks.
Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- (00:00) Introduction (13:45) Why Is Inflation Bad For Stocks? (21:24) Fate of Hyper-Growth Tech Stocks (23:15) Tesla (27:23) Ben Graham's Valuation Rules (30:03) Bit.com Ad (30:34) Recession In Europe (42:39) Recession Risk in the U.S. (46:10) Housing (49:05) The Federal Reserve (52:14) Chemicals Market Flashing Warning Signals (56:00) Recession in China (1:07:07) Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Nick Glinsman, macro hedge fund manager and author at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy) and Jack Farley to explore whether the Federal Reserve is at all disturbed by the vicious sell-off in risk assets, or if the carnage in equities and credit is actually in service of its mandate to control stable prices.
Glinsman argues that the global economy is on the verge of a wage-price spiral for the first time in four decades, and the central bankers will be in no hurry to reverse course on their hawkish policy. Taking from his extensive experience working at some of the world’s most successful hedge funds, Glinsman warns viewers not to “slip on a banana skin” as they navigate the macro landscape. Joseph Wang’s message to the viewers banking on a “Powell Put” is even more stark: “wake the ____ up.”
Nick Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Nick Glinsman's writings can be found at https://intelligencequarterly.com/. Joseph Wang's writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/. -- Today’s episode is sponsored by Jack Farley, the host of Forward Guidance. If you would like to get in touch with Jack to potentially become a sponsor of Forward Guidance, you can email him at jack@blockworks.co. Serious inquiries only, please. -- (00:00) Introduction (02:40) Banana Skins In This Market (13:14) The Fall Of The "Transitory" Narrative (23:30) The Wealth Effect in Reverse (30:50) Ad (36:07) Have Central Banks Lost Control? (41:18) The Dollar and Bonds (50:28) Bretton Woods III (59:55) Inflationary Hikes -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Joseph Wang & Maroon Macro join me for a deep dive into the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's $3 Trillion problem. As t bill issuance dries up, reverse repo's spike & money market funds park their assets elsewhere, how will the Fed's quantitive tightening program and rate hikes effect the plumbing of the global financial system?
Luckily I have two monetary plumbing experts to answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!
Follow Maroon: https://twitter.com/Maroon_Macro Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_@FedGuy12 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Sean Fielder, chief investment officer at Equinox Partners, joins Jack Farley to discuss his views on gold, mining, inflation, the and Federal Reserve’s continued tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks, diving into everything from ESG investing to a mine's lifecycle and lifestyle. __
Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
-- (00:00) Intro (02:26) Emerging Markets And The Dollar (15:32) New Bretton Woods (17:19) How Far Can The Fed Go? (19:07) Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? (26:36) Bit.com Ad (27:06) Energy, Oil & Gas (39:44) ESG Investing (Environmental, Societal, and Governance) (46:08) Junior Gold Miners (53:16) Common Problems That Junior Gold Mining Companies Have (55:56) Jurisdictional Risk (1:05:05) Lifecycle Of A Mine (1:06:26) The Future Of Gold -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today's episode of "Forward Guidance," Jack Farley is joined by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass newsletter and host of The Macro Trading Floor podcast on the Blockworks network. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book.
Alfonso joins Jack to share his outlook on the Fed’s efforts to tighten financial conditions in the hope of reining in inflation. Will these efforts crush the stock market? Will the Fed get its much-desired soft landing? Are there emerging signs of stress in credit spreads? In Alfonso's mind, one thing is for sure, Powell will NOT pivot this time. Monetary policy will be tightened until inflation is under control, Alfonso argues, and those investors relying on a Powell Pivot will be left holding the bag.
Alfonso’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/, here are some of the specific pieces he and Jack referenced:
“What If?”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/what-if?s=r “A Mistaken Attempt at Sounding Dovish”: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/serious-ish-about-inflation?s=r
Alfonso Peccatiello on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
-- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) Tightening Financial Conditions (08:17) The Macro Compass Quadrant Model (12:08) Stock Market Time Horizons (15:44) Shorting The S&P 500 (19:17) BCB Ad (20:06) Surging High Yield Bonds in Europe (22:53) Credit Spreads (29:43) Powell Is NOT Going to Pivot (35:42) Will the Fed Get Their Soft Landing? (38:58) When Will Bonds Become a Buy? (47:08) Changing Your Minds in Markets -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets. __
Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnh Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ --
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI
--
(00:00) Introduction (02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over? (04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album (13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects (16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy (18:46) ARKK (22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets (27:26) Where Is The Fed Put? (31:53) Bit.com Ad (32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation? (37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks (40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation (41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets (46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction? (50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation (51:40) Inflation in Europe (52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball (56:06) Final Thoughts
-- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights.
Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are “toast” and that goldilocks is “dead.” Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the “ARKK” stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix.
As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): “know what you own.”
George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79 Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
-- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack --
Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Background (06:55) The Everything Bubble (13:36) The Powell Pivot (20:58) ARKK (25:43) BCB Ad (26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets (39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No) (41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go? (43:22) Netflix and Amazon (50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now" (52:50) Energy (59:30) Crypto (1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On today’s episode of “Forward Guidance,” Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as “Doomberg,” a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer.
Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations.
Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called “environmentalists” led to its embrace of coal.
Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergT Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/ Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.
Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited) -- (00:00) Intro (00:33) The Start of Doomberg (05:27) Core Energy Thesis (12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal (14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas (19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy (34:00) Bit.com Ad (34:30) Nuclear Power (39:20) Farmers On The Brink (47:30) Oil (54:57) Renewables (01:08:36) Questions From Audience -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Timestamps: (00:00) Opening Thoughts (08:05) Powell's "Codewords" (15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow (22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible? (27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak? (47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President (51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems (53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks? (1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?
Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this week’s FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserve’s lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBooth Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Fed’s forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Fed’s involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting.
Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Fed’s reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Fed’s standing repo facility.
-- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
Jack’s next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro.
Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.
A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had “the everything short” (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does. Filmed on Tuesday, April 26. -- Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022 (04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022 (05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly (07:58) The Fed's Key Error (11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth (16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market (23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish (26:14) Bit.com Ad (26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3 (28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade (30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields (38:35) When Will Powell Pivot? (41:30) Gold (42:25) Crypto If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack -- (00:00) Introduction (00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia (07:08) Oil & Natural Gas (09:30) Wheat (14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk (18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation? (21:20) Central Bank Response Function (27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation (32:02) BCB Ad (35:45) The Dollar's Surge (1:20:36) Breton Woods III
“Liquidity” is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howell’s expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels). _ Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercap Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____ Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter -- Timestamps -- (00:00) Introduction (00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone (21:06) What Will Be The First To Break? (23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced? (26:35) But What About Inflation? (32:24) Bit.com Ad (43:32) Can China Save the Day? (47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze (50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity (53:04) History of Global Liquidity (56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III (1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession? (1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)
DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks.
DC on Twitter: @AnalystDC Joseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
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Links ___ Liberty Street Economics, "The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility": https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/
Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-move
DC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=r
Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/
(00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst (02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries? (14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen (20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries? (31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More? (37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No) (42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell? (46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities (57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike
An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks’ cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years.
BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
-- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (12:35) Inflation (18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) (21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent? (24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27 (27:32) BCB Ad (28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks? (31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely? (34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries (44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders (48:31) Credit Card Lending (51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine? (54:40) European Banks (58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged. Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien
Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelity Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks _____
Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market. Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com. Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3 App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter --
(00:00) Introduction (06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now? (12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon (21:29) The Stock Market (30:22) Bit.com Ad (31:00) Commodities (36:25) Gold (44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)? (56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control (1:06:18) Bitcoin
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more.
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategist Follow @Blockworks_
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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory.
BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War (06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War? (15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War? (18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South (24:02) BCB Ad (25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas (34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession? (37:36) Inflation (42:28) The Fed (47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin.
-- (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Background and Framework (05:01) Commodity Overview (11:00) Oil & Natural Gas (23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine (26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March (31:07) Backwardation & Contango (34:30) Bearish On Soybeans (39:26) Wheat (41:08) Shipping (46:08) Bearish Copper (48:50) Dollar Strength (50:32) Germany (55:40) Bitcoin
Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'.
Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V
Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @Blockworks_
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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle.
Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle.
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BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021 (03:57) Forecasting A Recession (08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation (14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe (16:42) Oil Market Outlook (19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy (25:12) BCB Group Ad (26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy? (39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil (41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World (57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market (1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility.
Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0.
Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @Ksidiii Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_ Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/ -- If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve. 42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_ -- -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspring Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___
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Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both.
Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___
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On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy. Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more. Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ -- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade.
Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case.
Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow @Blockworks_
Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf
Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/
In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years.
With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral".
Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative?
Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out.
-- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.
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Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset.
Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets. _ Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth.
Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ ___
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In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday.
BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack
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Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___
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Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia. Key learnings include: 1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system. 2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes 3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but require action from Fed + ECB 4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12 Follow @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called “inflation-trades” (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself.
Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplify’s new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates.
Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99 Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_ __ BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack __
Two papers Green discusses:
Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, “In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967
Lasse Heje Pedersen, “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071 _
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Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___
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*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one.
Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russia’s recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia.
Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity “doom loop” that would cause prices to skyrocket.
Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time.
Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_ Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives Follow Lykeion @thelykeion ___
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Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil. Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto.
Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
-- BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack _
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Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years.
Tommy Thornton’s Twitter: @TommyThornton Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
_ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japan’s (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped “emergency” Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard’s comments that the Federal Reserve’s credibility is “on the line.”
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022.
Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022.
Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack. _ If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, “The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty,” Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (“beta”) such as equities and commodities.
Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks.
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_ Wang’s most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/ Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of “The Big Short,” they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE).
Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the market’s back. Now that high inflation has forced the Fed’s hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector.
Follow Porter Collins @Seawolfcap Follow Vincent Daniels @VD718 Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_
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BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.
BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.
For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack.
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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.
Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: “are reserves money”?
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
Russell Napier of Orlock Advisors joins Jack Farley to share lessons from his experience as an financial analyst in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis. Napier notes that during the bull market in Asian equities of the first half of the 1990s, analysts attributed the boom to the high rates of economic growth in much of Asia. However, Napier tells Farley that the true cause of the dramatic bull market was the multitude of pegged exchange rates that did not allow Asian currencies to strengthen as foreign capital flowed in, boosting liquidity conditions.
However, once the tide of foreign capital reversed course, the “Asian miracle” became a nightmare.
Napier is the author of “The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-98: Birth of the Age of Debt.” https://www.libraryofmistakes.com/
Library of Mistakes Twitter: @EdinburghLoM Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Jack Farley welcomes former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) for a new show devoted to all things central banking. The two analyze the most recent FOMC meeting, after which Fed Chair Powell on January 26, indicated that the strong labor market and high inflation prints were leading the Fed’s FOMC members to contemplate removing monetary accommodation with more speed and vigor than previously anticipated.
Wang and Farley discuss the spike in Fed Funds Futures, quantitative tightening (QT’s) impact on the market, as well as the striking request of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, that the Federal Reserve not raise rates.
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_
Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to give a much-needed update on her macro views as equity and crypto markets encounter intense selling pressure. Alden argues that stubbornly high inflation will cause rotation from growth stocks to value stocks to continue. However, Alden argues that she’s more likely to buy than short beleaguered hypergrowth names (think $ARKK) - instead she sees the greatest weakness in the mega-cap “FAANG” names, which she compares to the “Nifty Fifty” stocks, a basket of blue-chip equities that seemed impregnable in the 1960s but ultimately fared poorly in the later inflationary decade of the 1970s. But it’s not the 1970s, where interest rates rose to meet inflation, that reminds Alden the most of our current era; instead it is the 1940s, where policies such as yield curve control ensured that bond yields remained well below levels of inflation. Alden argues that in this environment of sustained negative real interest rates, commodities will perform very well, and in particular commodities of fixed supply like gold and Bitcoin.
Lyn Alden on Twitter: @LynAldenContact Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Lyn Alden’s investment analysis can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/. If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter.
Is the Federal Reserve stuck between a rock and a hard place? Jared Dillian of The Daily Dirtnap argues that the monetary tightening needed to tame inflation will inflict serious damage to the economic recovery, to the point that the Fed essentially has a choice between secular inflation and severe recession. Which door will the Fed choose? Dillian is inclined to believe that the Fed will attempt to chart a “middle path” between both options that will actually result in the dreaded stagflation - where inflation continues to rise while economic growth slows down. Dillian tells Forward Guidance host Jack Farley why he thinks the ongoing rotation from growth stocks to value stocks will continue, and why he in particular is interesting in buying the shares of “big and ugly” companies. Dillian also shares his views on crypto, gold, and bonds.
Dillian on Twitter: @dailydirtnap Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
Imran Lakha and Ming Zhao join Jack Farley to make sense of how the proliferation of options has changed the investing landscape in tradfi and crypto. After discussing the role of memestocks like GameStop and AMC, as well as structural vol selling call overwriting, Lakha and Zhao share the dos and don’ts of buying and selling options, such as why investors should never exercise options, and how investors should think about whether implied volatility is rich or cheap. Lakha and Zhao also catalog the explosion of crypto options, both via centralized exchanges such as Deribit as well as the emergence of DeFi Options Vaults (DOVs).
Zhao on Twitter: @FabiusMercurius Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_
In this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack once again sits down with former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang, more commonly known by his moniker “Fed Guy.” In the interview, the two go deep into the leadership, policy, and future of the Federal Reserve, as well as look at how textbook concepts such as the Fed controlling inflation through the federal funds rate are outdated at best. Joseph takes his years of experience and impressive knowledge of modern financial systems to critique how central banks run the economies of today. Jack and Joseph question if the Fed is on the right path to end inflation and if the current regime even knows how to combat the problems of an economy overheated by fiscal stimulus. Don’t miss this important and thought-provoking interview.
Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12 Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley sits down with Sam Burns, the founder and chief strategist of Mill Street Research.
In addition to general macro trends in the economic and financial world, Sam and Jack discuss Sam’s MAER model (Monitor of Analyst Earning Revisions), which uses the insight of market analysts to judge how the markets will move. Using the research of analysts, Sam is able to buck the predictions of the crowd and come to his own well-formulated conclusions on markets. Jack and Sam delve into complexity sometimes required to grasp today’s difficult-to-understand swings in finance. The two question and rethink traditional narratives within finance in this high-level discussion.
Don’t miss this talk with a heterodox thinker in the financial industry.
Mill Street Research on Twitter: @MillStResearch Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_
In this episode of Forward Guidance, host Jack Farley and guest Tracy Shuchart discuss the tumultuous past two years of the energy market. Since 2020, the markets for oil and natural gas have hit historic points, most famously when the futures price of oil went negative in April of 2020. Tracy gives expert insight into how the energy sector’s adaptation to massive shocks in demand, production, and financial credibility have affected the price of oil in the spot market and the futures market. The interview delves not only into the superficial price movements of the recent past, but into powerful decision makers such as OPEC as well.
Additionally, Tracy and Jack look at exogenous factors causing price movements, such as a move towards green energy and recent geopolitical tensions in Europe and Central Asia. The conversation delves into the current reality of the energy market, as well as its potential future.
Hedge Fund Telemetry: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/author/tracy-shuchart/ Tracy Shuchart on Twitter: @chigrl Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_
Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for 2022. Dale explains why his business cycle framework, which tracks the rate of change in growth and inflation in order to forecast and risk manage asset allocation, is signaling that the bloom may be off the rose for high-beta assets such as speculative growth darlings, crypto-assets SPACs, as well as reflationary stocks in the materials and energy space.
Because the rate of change of economic growth is falling, Dale expects “safer” assets like mega-cap tech (FAANG) and long-term government bonds to outperform on a relative basis. Dale notes that his framework is probabilistic in nature, not deterministic, and he argues that investors are better served by weighing the likelihood of relative outcomes rather than looking into their crystal ball for certain outcomes. Dale also cautions against becoming wedded to narratives that promise assured outcomes.
42Macro website: https://42macro.com/ Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDale Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance Jack welcomes Ronnie Stoeferle, partner at Incrementum AG. Stoeferle argues that the world is already in a new inflationary era that he calls “monetary climate change.”
Stoeferle discusses key features of a debt-based monetary system (50 years and counting) and predicts that the merging of fiscal and monetary policy will create a shift from asset price inflation to consumer price inflation. Stoeferle shares why he believes gold and Bitcoin will do very will in this new monetary environment, and he elaborates on several key drives of the prices of both of these non-inflatable assets.
Incrementum's website: https://www.incrementum.li/en/
Ronnie Stoeferle’s Twitter: @RonStoeferle
Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_
The rise of indexation has given many investors a cheap and straightforward way to access the stock market. But now that over half of all investing dollars are allocated to passive strategies, is the dominance of passive investing creating market distortions in ways that meaningfully alter share prices? Steven Bregman, president and co-founder of Horizon Kinetics, has been tracking the consequences of passive indexation’s rapid rise, and on this sixteenth episode of Forward Guidance, he shares with viewers his findings. Bregman explains key factors such as the crowding-out effect and hidden illiquidity that can explain the drastic outperformance of equity giants such as Apple, Microsoft, and other mega-cap stocks ($NVDA, $TSLA, $FB, etc.) that now comprise nearly half of the S&P 500.Bregman argues that the S&P 500 in 2021 is no longer a “diversified” basket of stocks as it was 30 years ago, because so many out-of-favor stocks such as oil drillers, gold miners, and other businesses that benefit from bouts of inflation (such as the one right now) have been “crowded-out” of the index. At the end of this nearly two-hour masterclass in passive investing, Bregman reveals a formula that he argues is guaranteed to beat the S&P 500: “select for the smart penny. ”Horizon Kinetics’ website: https://horizonkinetics.com/ Jack’s prior interview with James Davolos, Portfolio Manager of the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bVpJ58FhFc About $INFL: https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/ Horizon Kinetics’ Twitter handle: @HorizonKinetics Jack Farley’s Twitter handle: @JackFarley96
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang, renowned former Fed trader, shares his views and observations on our macro world. Not only does he explain concepts like quantitative easing, but he also goes over the disparate affects of various market conditions-- from the Fed's accelerated taper, to the outcome of rate hikes. Wang's views and discussions on both the past but future long-term are not to be missed!
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor known for his uncanny market timing, shares his outlook on various time horizons about stocks, bonds, and commodities. Zulauf explains why the reflationary types of trades might continue to sell-off over the near-term as economic conditions worsen, however restored liquidity conditions might in the second half of 2022 breathe new life in stocks and commodities. Zulauf shares his longer-term analysis on gold and currencies, and tells Jack Farley why he thinks that bond yields are in the process of bottoming.
Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares:
Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold
Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue
How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks
Today’s guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks’ Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt) - why quantitative easing (QE) isn’t inflationary
Alfonso Peccatiello’s Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiello’s newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio
With fund managers keen to lock in gains from a lucrative year, the “pain trade” is here, says Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. Moreover, pie-in-the-sky technology companies are falling back to earth, threatening to bring the entire market down with them. Yet Kuppy remains bullish on risk assets because in his “Project Zimbabwe” framework wherein inflation runs rampant as central banks remain hopelessly behind the curve, going long is the way to go. Kuppy argues that oil futures are the assets that will benefit most from inflation because ESG (environmental, social, and governance) mandates will depress supply. Kuppy, the publisher of Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM), also shares several idiosyncratic trades ranging from Uranium to paper. Kuppy and Blockworks’ Jack Farley also discuss China, Robinhood, and United States Oil ETF ($USO).
The emergence of crypto funds and exchange traded products (ETPs) has changed the game - but just how much capital is flowing into crypto via these channels? James Butterfill, Investment Strategist at CoinShares, joins Jack Farley to shed light on the crypto fund flows that are serving as onramps for many institutional investors to Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Solana and Polkadot.
Listeners of the Forward Guidance podcast are in for a real treat today. Jack interviews noted economist and former central banker Dr. William White, who served on the front lines of monetary policy for over half a decade. White, a stern critic of the easy money policy that preceded the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, argues that ultra-low interest rates threatens financial stability and creates a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices, and abrupt illiquidity. Dr. White shares his views on whether the U.S dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries. Lastly, Dr. White makes the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges world faces, with the other three "Four Horsemen" being in the spheres of politics, public health, and the environment.
With inflation running hot around the globe, many investors are looking to hedge against inflation. But is that the right goal?
On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley speaks to James Davolos, portfolio manager at the Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL), a fund that which, as the name suggests, aims to invest in stocks that benefit from inflation. Davolos argues that inflation will increase the value of scalable, economically resilient business models with exposure to hard assets, and he shares several examples, ranging from gold royalty companies and financial exchanges to timber companies and agricultural processing firms.
When Jack Farley ran into macro investor Michael Nicoletos at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in London, he knew the two had to film an interview. Nicoletos shares his thoughts on crypto’s role within a macro portfolio, why the U.S. dollar is rising against other currencies, and why the 40-year bull market in bonds might not yet be over. Nicoletos argues that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will eventually replace stablecoins as an onramp to crypto, and argues that China economic woes are very serious.
Blockworks next crypto event in May 2021: https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/ Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96 Michael Nicoletos’ Twitter: @mnicoletos
We're heading for an inflationary decade that will change society as we know it. That's according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc, who argues inflation is not transitory as many insist but rather a feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks' Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today's tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China's withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.
Tobias Carlisle, Portfolio Manager at Acquirers’ Funds, joins Jack Farley on this sixth episode of Forward Guidance to explain why he believes quality companies are being serially undervalued. Carlisle argues that the equity market assigns far too high of a value on fast-growing stocks, and far too-little of a value on companies whose revenues are growing slowly but whose return on capital is very high and whose balance sheets are pristine. Carlisle shares with Farley the methodology and structure of of his value funds, The Acquirers’ Fund ($ZIG) and the Roundhill Acquirers Deep Value ETF ($DEEP), and he shares his vision for the future of value investing.
Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October's CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided.
Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety is unnecessary. On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Basmajian tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income. Basmajian explores particularly explosive parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan.
Basmajian's article on demographics: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/the-global-demographic-vortex
Basmajian's article on rent inflation: https://www.epbmacroresearch.com/blog/are-you-worried-about-rent-inflation
The Dallas Fed's paper on rent inflation: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0824
The world of macro investing is full of narratives: that a rising dollar threatens emerging market stocks and commodity prices; that rising bond yields imperil growth stocks but buoy value stocks; and that inflation is bad for Tesla, good for gold, and great for Bitcoin. There is more than a grain of truth to these mantras, but they miss the complex interplay of macro variables. On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley investigates these sacred cows of macro to see if they are a little shaky on their legs in a “man vs. machine” conversation with Huw Roberts, head of analytics at Quant Insight.
Do balance sheets matter? Do cash flows matter? In a world where asset prices are driven by liquidity rather than fundamentals, the answer can seem to be yes. But since this environment gives companies license to embroider their finances, the ability to spot their accounting sleight-of-hand is of immense value to investors.
Today on the third episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes Stephen Clapham, forensic accountant and founder of Behind the Balance Sheet. Clapham shows the most common instances of financial legerdemain and gives in depth analysis of companies such as Tesla, Ferrari, and The Hut Group.
The world faces an energy crisis that threatens to stop the economic recovery in its tracks.
On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, joins Jack Farley to explain the root causes of soaring prices of oil and natural gas. Pies argues that the world is entering a regime of secular inflation that will have profound implications for investors, such as turning the correlation between stocks and bonds from negative to positive.
Pies shares his views on real assets and explains why he thinks Bitcoin will likely continue to outperform gold at least over the short-term. PIes challenges mainstream narratives about Bitcoin such as the stock-to-flow model as well its being uncorrelated with other risk assets.
“Forward Guidance” is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.
Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.