Post Racing: Recent Episodes
Ron Robinson
I was reading this morning that Aidan O’Brien is sending runners to Salisbury this week as he looks to break through the £5m prize money barrier in Britain this year. They have a Listed race on tomorrow and the winner will receive £22,684….just three runners turning out for that prize, two virtually trading joint favourite, O’Brien’s PARTHENON being one of them.
This will be just the second runner he has had at Salisbury in 19 years.
He has two more entered up on Thursday, the £40,000 Tattersalls Novice event.
In the last couple of days, we have seen races in which I had spotted up three OMMS produce Trifectas paying 112/1 and 263/1 so I thought I’d spend 30 minutes looking back at the OMMS section in the Newsletters, and pluck from them all races that had three OMMS in them.
I got back as far as Friday and had 12 races to them marry up to the results of those races and whilst they were the only two races producing Trifectas, I noted that eight of those races produced winners to High Street SP of 12/1, 11/1, 9/1, 6/1, 4/1, 7/2, 3/1, and 11/8
Playing combo exotics is not my game but those betting for fun and playing a £1 combo exotic….a permed Trifecta by any other name….would have staked £72 and recouped £375 and change….that just about covers an annual Post Racing subscription.
Obviously I’m going to have to plough back much, much further than three days of work as that’s not even a sample worthy of the word, but I know for a fact I’ve stated in Newsletters that a Trifecta paying such and such.
My plan is to go back to May 1st, check those OMMS races having three named….no more, no less than three….and we’ll see how they have fared both from the Trifecta and solo winner angles.
It might be I find nothing but, equally, it might be I find a seam we can mine going forward.
Yesterday the OMMS were on fire. They produced seven winners from the 13 races that had a qualifier….with four runners up, and three running home third. I simply cannot express strongly enough how important it is to be able to read the markets from the moment they open. If you take a look at yesterday’s OMMS section, you will see I had spotted nine EMMS….early market movers….and they were posted up on our members private website.
The nine I listed produced winners that returned SP’s 9/1, 17/2, 7/2, 7/2 and 10/11 the last of those indicated as being very strong on the tissue, making it three such winners over the last two days.
For those with hearing difficulties you have the full list in text form below.
AYR
- 🔥 🔥 (EMM) 2-25 – DUTY FIRST – 11/4 > 13/8 > 6/4 > 6/5 – WON 10/11
- (EMM) 3-35 – KEEP ME STABLE – 5/1 > 10/3 > 7/2 – WON 17/2
- (EMM) 4-40 – FAYLAQ – 4/1 > 5/2 > 7/2 – WON 7/2
- (EMM) 5-15 – MAJESTIC NEWLAW – 14/1 > 8/1 > 9/1
- (EMM) 5-45 – SEE MY BABY JIVE – 10/1 > 5/1 > 11/2
- (EMM) 6-15 – DINGWALL – 9/2 > 5/2 > 11/4 > 4/1
KEMPTON
- (EMM) 2-10 – BOWNDER – 14/1 > 6/1 > 13/2 – 3RD 6/1
- (EMM) 2-10 – LAIZEELUNCH – 12/1 > 6/1 > 8/1 – WON 9/1
- (EMM) 3-20 – LIKELY PERSPECTIVE – 4/1 > 3/1 – WON 7/2
So, what of today?
Tuesday is becoming the lightest day of the week, but it will always offer us a chance to find some diamonds in the dust.
I’ve produced two Rated races for my subscribed members and will be updating those this afternoon, so they have the very latest information to work with.
I have been looking at what we have for today and have come up with “three for a tickle”….got to call it something catchy!
The first runs in the Nottingham 3-30 – TIMES EDITION with my second for this fun punter’s play being KHANGAI (Lingfield 4-45pm), both around 7/2 as I speak.
The third runs in the Hamilton 6-00pm – TOP JUGGLER….that has seen morning support.
If you are not currently subscribed but fancy joining us and getting everything in your inbox with which to make a profit from your betting, please visit www.postracing.co.uk hit the subscribe link, and pick a package.
Tomorrow I’ll be working with one of my favourite tracks, Beverley and I’d be thinking we’ll have far more to work with.
Have a great day and hopefully see you again tomorrow.
Lots discussed this week and it's an hour and 10 minutes of your life you'll never get back but well worth a listen. Sean and Ron discuss 12 races across Friday and Saturday and mention the dodgepot acca...and believe me, there are dodgepots all over the place on Saturday!
Below is the text of Ron's side of those race discussions, with his and Sean's selections.
PODCAST 27/01/22
FRIDAY
DONCASTER 1-50
Only three previous running’s of this race and impossible for me to find a selection using the runes, because I have no runes!
I’m not seeing a bet here, not least because we have Irish challengers, an Ian Williams trained hurdling debutante, who is fit off the flat having run second at Southwell recently and the trainer in form, running a 46% RTF%age figure, with three winners from his last 13 runners.
However, if there is a trainer in better form with hurdlers this season than Milton Harris, I’d be surprised. He’s running around a 24% strike rate with them this term and that’s stunning. He trains previous course and distance winner GALAH in this and is running a superb 62% RTF%age figure right now.
He’s brilliantly named being by Australia went off the even money favourite to win his race here on December 29th and beat TIKI FIRE, who takes him on again tomorrow, easily enough.
I expect him to run as well as any of the trainer’s runners have been and if I had to pick one to punt, it would be him. I’ll say 20/80 GALAH, for Podcast purposes….but I personally will not be betting.
RON – GALAH – 20/80
SEAN – LA RENOMMEE – E.W. or 20/80
HUNTINGDON 2-35
Good little race this. Only five going to post which is a pity and it was the two that do not turn up that interested me most, EMMAS JOY, because that one is trained by Skelton and he has won this with the two he has sent for it, and QUICK WAVE, trained by Venetia Williams, who would have probably gone off favourite being rated just 1lb lower than VIENNA COURT, who will now probably go off favourite, and was set to receive 4lb. Look out for that one running in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on the 19th of February.
On official ratings this now looks a formality for VIENNA COURT, who runs off level weights with MASKADA, and is rated 8lb superior to that horse. She is rated 10lb superior to PINK LEGEND and yet only gives that mare 2lb, and both GALICE MACALO and SCHIAPARANNIE receive 4lb but are rated 15lb and 21lb inferior, respectively.
I cannot see past the Twiston-Davies runner….VIENNA COURT should win this.
RON – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN
SEAN – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN
SATURDAY
12.45pm Cheltenham
Just eight going to post for this Triumph Hurdle Trial and with seven of the last nine winners in the front two on the tissue, I think it’s fair to create a two horse shortlist: * ICEO * PIED PIPER
I cannot help thinking that PIED PIPER turns up here to give trainer Gordon Elliott a “sighter”. He trains the current short priced favourite FIL DOR, who is just 5/2 to win the Triumph in March.
If his horse dots up here, FIL DOR will probably shorten for that race.
Ok, so one of this pair above wins this but I doubt very much it will go on to win at Cheltenham. DEFI DU SEUIL was the last to do so in 2017 and before that nowt so it’s a trial in name only.
ICEO has two soft ground wins to his name but we are looking at good ground on Saturday. Having said that, PIED PIPER’s only win over hurdles to date came on heavy and, his last win for Gosden, on the flat, came on heavy, too.
I do not know which of these two will win and so, whilst accepting one will, I’m going to suggest a place only punt INTERNE DE SIVOLA.
This horse bolted up over course and distance on good to soft ground last time out and his trainer, Nick Williams, is 2-4 with runners in this. He actually took it last year with GALAHAD QUEST and in 2014 with that decent one, LE ROCHER.
INTERNE DE SIVOLA place only, for me.
RON – INTERNE DE SIVOLA – PLACE ONLY
SEAN – ICEO – WON ONLY
2.30pm Cheltenham
Officially a Gold Cup trial but you have to go back a long time to find the winner of this taking a Gold Cup….was it MASTER OATS, for Kim Bailey?
Anyway, only five are going to post here and the clear favourite is CHANTRY HOUSE. However, look at the record of the favourite in this and that’s the first horse you rule out!
One winner in the last decade has managed to take this race and that was SANTINI, who runs again tomorrow, in 2020. However, seven of the last nine winners were front three on the tissue so, if I dare remove CHANTRY HOUSE….and I have done….I’m left with AYE RIGHT or SIMPLY THE BETTS.
The last named last won a race in 2020 and has never won beyond 2 miles 4 furlongs.
You know me and stats/trends and I have to put up AYE RIGHT, as he’s also arriving here the only winner of a race last time out and six of the last 10….and four of the last five winners of this, had done the same.
AYE RIGHT for me
RON – AYE RIGHT
SEAN – CHANTRY HOUSE
3.05pm Cheltenham
Another very small field, five again heading to post, two 10 year olds heading the tissue, and no horse of that age has won this in the last 10 years.
CHAMP arrives looking by far the best of these, official figures suggest he’s a good thing and the market agrees, currently 1/2. It’s 16/1 bar three and the other pair at the head of the market are officially giving CHAMP 5LB and 10lb so it’s his to lose.
I’ll never be a backer of CHAMP as he’s suspect in my eyes, looks like a champ one day and a chump the next. He wins if he’s on a going day but won’t carry a penny of my money….as will none of the others.
RON – CHAMP
SEAN - CHAMP
3.40pm Cheltenham
Six going to post here and another race you simply apply market position, light the blue touch paper, stand back, watch, then go collect. Six of the last 10 winners were front two on the tissue, only one winner bigger than 4/1 in the last seven years and two heading the tissue right now 2/1, and 3/1, with it then being 10/1 bar the pair.
One of BALCO COASTAL or HILLCREST wins this and you can dutch to make a profit.
The last three winners carried 11st 5lb, two of them were trained by Nicky Henderson and he saddles BALCO COASTAL.
If dutching ain’t your bag, he’s the play.
RON – BALCO COASTAL
SEAN – A DIFFERENT KIND
4.15pm Cheltenham
A Bumper. If you’ve been reading your Newsletters fully recently, you know to leave this to the market to solve. The OMMS for the Bumpers recently have been ridiculously accurate and, in fact, I’m using three of those for the Pick Of The Pops later!
If you want to know what the runes say, they say we want a four year old, either a winner arriving for this, or making debut….we’ve only had four previous running’s of this so trends are very light….and the only four year old in here on Saturday arrives having raced twice and been absolutely slamdunked at this track on New Years Day. She is also a filly….carrying just 10st 3lb and they have won the last three running’s of this race.
The horse in question is CHIC AVENUE and as with last years winner EILEENDOVER, is trained by Pam Sly….her only previous runner in the race.
Nothing fits from a trends angle because they are so weak so, I’m just going to go all “silly like” and suggest a place only play CHIC AVENUE.
In the Saturday morning Newsletters, you’ll definitely have more of a guide to what is actually going to win it.
RON – CHIC AVENUE – PLACE ONLY.
SEAN – MISTRAL NELL – E.W. or 20/80
1.35pm Doncaster
Only three runners and if THIRD TIME LUCKI fails to win this, on these terms, they can forget all about Cheltenham. He has to give just 5lb to horses he is rated 10lb and 15lb better than.
One you throw into an acca as he’ll be odds on here and rightly so.
Having said that, and I mentioned this the last time we discussed this horse, he has only ever won once after we’ve turned into a New Year.
If you must have a bet of any description, he’s the one but I’ll just watch.
RON – THIRD TIME LUCKI
SEAN – THIRD TIME LUCKI
2.10pm Doncaster
Another very small field.
Five only heading to post and it’s another that should, if form means anything, go the way of MIRANDA. Currently odds on, she has to give 6lb to the second favourite ANNA BUNINA, but is, officially, 11lb superior.
She has to give the third favourite, MISS HERITAGE, 6lb but is, officially, 19lb superior.
If they run to form, the 10/11 is gold dust.
MIRANDA for me.
RON – MIRANDA
SEAN – WESTERN VICTORY
2.45pm Doncaster
Anyone that was thinking about playing e.w. this weekend is going to gunning for two places only in a lot of these races and here, again, only seven are going to post.
We have a couple of “steamers” here in UNANSWERED PRAYERS, who had been as big as 13/2 earlier this week (best I can see now is 11/4), and NOT AT PRESENT 12/1 > 6/1.
The runes say…six year old….won five of the nine running’s….but none of the last three. They all carry 10st 12lb so no weight range bias to apply. Five of the nine winners won last time out and the biggest priced winner has been THE COB, put up by Sean last year I believe, and won @ 25/1! That horse was also trained by the bloke saddling the second of those steamers NOT AT PRESENT.
Ben Pauling has an exceptional record in this. He has saddled four, won with three.
We’ll have no 25/1 winner this time around as the biggest price I can see about any is 10/1 so, with seven of the nine previous winners of this having been sited front three on the tissue, six years of age, and that pair of steamers having one fit like a glove, I’ll go with UNANSWERED PRAYERS but I’d not put anyone of dutching with the Pauling runner.
RON – UNANSWERED PRAYERS
SEAN – THE REAL WHACKER E.W. or 20/80
1-40pm Fairyhouse
Henry de Bromhead mares have won the last two of these but he’s not represented on Saturday so, look to Mullins or Elliott trained horses as they had won the previous six between them.
Before MINELLA MELODY took this last year at 10/3, the favourite had won every previous running.
Jockey bookings suggest that the main Mullins runner (he has four of the nine racing for him!), is BRANDY LOVE, and Elliott relies on just one, PARTY CENTRAL.
I’ve checked the Cheltenham entries and betting and right now BRANDY LOVE is just 8/1 for the Dawn Run at the Festival (now the Parnall Properties) and is around 9/4 favourite to win this on Saturday. A stable companion is second favourite and so piecing this jigsaw together is easy enough….BRANDY LOVE wins it.
RON – BRANDY LOVE
SEAN – ALLEGORIE DE VASSY
10-34pm Gulfstream
We had to cover this race because, officially, we’ll see the worlds best horse running, KNICKS GO, who is unbeaten in his last four runs, which includes last years Breeders Cup Classic, and since moving to Brad Cox from Ben Colebrook, has won eight of his last 10 starts.
He started racing for Cox at the start of his four year old career and emphasises again what I’ve always said about horses only becoming fully mature at the age of five. As a juvenile and a three year old, he raced 13 times and won once.
At the start of last year, his five year old season, he got beaten nearly nine lengths by MISHRIFF in Dubai. Then put away for the start of the summer, he took a run to get straight before running up a four win sequence culminating in that Breeders Cup win.
On Saturday he’ll most likely add another £1.3m+ to the near £6.5m he has already won.
I’ll not try to get him beaten here and expect him to go off odds on to win again.
RON – KNICKS GO
SEAN – KNICKS GO
OMMS 1-2-3
3) – ROSY REDRUM – 12/1 > 11/4 -WON 4/1
2) – REALTA ROYALE – 14/1 > 13/2 – WON 13/2
1) – MISTRAL NELL – 12/1 > 11/2 – WON 11/4….that one indicated in Newsletter as “strong”.
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – BALCO COASTAL (Cheltenham 3-40 Saturday)
SEAN – A DIFFERENT KIND (Cheltenham 3-40 Saturday)
For those hard of hearing please find below the text of my side of this weeks racing chatter, with Sean's selections added for those races discussed.
PODCAST TEXT 06/01/22
FRIDAY
WETHERBY 12-50
No previous running’s of this race, no odds to utilise from a trends point of view, three of the eight horses making racecourse debut, one of which has been introduced as a potential tissue favourite, JARAMILLO @ 6/4 and I feel very much like the blind leading the blind into this one.
The favourite was purchased for 100,000Gns out of Roger Varian’s yard and arrives with a flat rating of 85, which is decent enough and his best flat form figures came over 10 furlongs so he should get two miles over hurdles.
He will not need to be anything Istabraq-like to win this but his worst performances over hurdles came on ground with ease in it, his win was on good to firm.
I’d rather go with KAYFAST WARRIOR if I were betting. A course and distance winner, on soft, which it will be tomorrow and he was only rated 3lb inferior to JARAMILLO on the flat.
Do you want 6/4 with a question mark, or 11/4 with a thumbs up?
I’ll put up KAYFAST WARRIOR
RON – KAYFAST WARRIOR
SEAN – KAYFAST WARRIOR
WOLVERHAMPTON 5-30PM
This caused much mirth in my office when I saw what Sean had suggested! A Class 6 all weather race, that has never been run before.
What I noticed about these races in midweek, when I was covering all weather racing market movers, was the number of gambles taking place in the 30 minutes before the off time of each race. Some went in, some just failed, and some ran like Class 6 horses, that had not been told they were “off”.
I have nothing other than a gut feeling here.
I’m a big fan of Adam West and he does great with what he has in his yard. Here he saddles GLEN ROSA, who looks to me like a horse they have been plotting up. Since having wind surgery, they have campaigned the horse primarily in Class 6 over trip of up to a mile, no shorter than six furlongs, until last time out when they put him over five furlongs and he ran his best race to date, over course and distance, beaten just half a length @ 14/1
That was his first run in cheekpieces, which are retained tomorrow.
I’m going to put him up as a 20/80 with no confidence in him running two races like that back to back.
RON – GLEN ROSA 20/80
SEAN – CATCHING RYAN
SATURDAY
SANDOWN 12-05
Five currently set to go to post but it could be four if RAQISA Wetherby 12-50pm tomorrow.
Only two winners of this have managed to do so carrying more than 10st 12lb and so if that stat holds firm it’s between FAMILY TIME, MOULINS CLERMONT and MALAKHANA.
I’d rule out RAQISA even if it turns up because I cannot find a debutante that has won this in the last five years.
The last three running’s of this have gone to long odds on favourites and if you sit outside the front three on the tissue, stay at home because nine of the last 10 winners were on the podium.
I’m feeling an urge to go with MOULINS CLERMONT, a beaten favourite running for Gary Moore, whose yard is still running a cracking good 59% RTF%age figure and, he took this last year for the second time in the last nine years. He has actually run seven in this, won with two, placed with one.
This horse was a beaten favourite on debut and as he has been pulled out twice since because of the ground, which was similar to that he got thumped on first time up for Gary Moore, I’m assuming they have waited for the rain, a bit of soft ground, and they have it. His only run in France came on heavy and he was only beaten just over three lengths so let’s put him up another sporting punt….the market will tell us much more on the day.
RON – MOULINS CLERMONT
SEAN – FAMILY TIME
SANDOWN 12-40
Just five again heading down the start as I speak and I’d love a tissue to work with as I’d only be interested in the two at the head of the market. They have won eight of the last nine running’s between them, including last years winner who runs again on Saturday, WHITEHOTCHILLIFILI.
The two trainers you would most be looking for here are Nicholls and Henderson, who have won five of those nine races but neither is represented here so my eye is now drawn to GAULOISE, who is trained by Willie Mullins.
He won this race with LAURINA in 2019, and her only run to date over this trip saw her beaten ½ a length by SKYACE, who travels over from Ireland for this race, too.
My selection will be GAULOISE, simply because she is unbeaten in three races on soft ground, which she has on Saturday….again, as I speak (might be frozen solid on the day!), and having seen him winning last week with STORMY IRELAND you know he’s not sending horses here just for the fun of it, especially with the additional expenses now applied to doing so!
RON – GAULOISE
SEAN - GAULOISE
SANDOWN 2-25
Six going to post here but there will be many a long face if CONSITUTION HILL fails to follow up his brilliant win 35 days ago. The turn of foot he showed was superb and that put him at the head of the Supreme Novices’ market until his stable companion JONBON came out again and hacked up like a superstar.
Nicky Henderson is the master at getting this type of horse ready for this type of race and he’s long odds on already to win on Saturday.
I’d not have a bet here but if anyone fancies buying some money, it’s CONSTITUTION HILL you want to be investing in.
RON – CONSITUTION HILL
SEAN – CONSTITUTION HILL
NEWCASTLE 2-33
Only one previous running of this and that went to the odds-on Olly Murphy trained favourite. I’ve no tissue right now but if I did have one, I’d expect CRYSTAL GLORY to be in a very similar mould.
A winner over the course, a winner over the trip, unbeaten in four races and a staying chaser in the making.
James Ewart runs two here, both racing second time following a wind-op, both maidens, and who knows what difference, if any, that will make?
I expect CRYSTAL GLORY to open favourite, probably odds on, and win.
RON – CRYSTAL GLORY
SEAN – CRYSTAL GLORY
NEWCASTLE 3-43
Head in hands and my brain hurts now, too!
A 12 runner Class 4 Novice event that has only been run twice previously and was last year won by a 25/1 shot. The first running of this race went to a 5/1 shot trained by Tim Easterby and neither winner has done absolutely anything since, so winning this might be akin to taking home a ball and chain.
What wins it? Wish I had a De Lorean right now, fast forward to Sunday, get a copy of a newspaper to check Saturday’s results….because that’s the only way I’d have a clue….might still get it wrong!
Purely for Podcast purposes, and because I’m feeling frivolous (and the stable form is red hot right now), I’ll go place only GOAST DANCER.
The yard won it last term with that 25/1 shot, Sandy Thompson’s horses are sizzling right now, a 61% RTF%age figure, in 2022 he has saddled seven runners and their form figures read 1, 1, 1, 3, 2, 4, 2….I imagine he’ll be a very silly price because he looks next to useless so far.
I’d have probably said the same about that rat he won with last year, who arrived with form figures reading 8/7, 8….very similar to those of GOAST DANCER, whose are 06-08.
RON – GOAST DANCER – PLACE ONLY
SEAN – SINCE DAY ONE
WINCANTON 12-55
Eight previous running’s of this race and if you want the winner, do not look outside the front two on the tissue….only one of those eight previous winners were….and that went off the third favourite.
Paul Nicholls targets this race. He has run eight in it, won with three, placed with three and he saddles the horse most likely to go off favourite, FLEMENSTIDE, who bolted up on hurdling debut, ridden by the pilot on board this Saturday, Bryony Frost.
He beat the odds-on JAZZ KING that day (beaten at odds on again since), easily, despite running as green as grass and with that experience under his belt, and with his yard also hot as Hades (another with a 61% RTF%age figure), I’ll plump for him…straight on the nose.
RON – FLEMENSTIDE
SEAN - FLEMENSTIDE
KEMPTON 6-45
We finish with an all-weather doodah at Kempton, just five heading to post and just six previous running’s to draw on for a trend.
What I’m seeing is, three running’s have gone to six-year-olds, three running’s have gone to favourites and all six winners have carried 9st 2lb.
The only qualifier on what are tenuous trends to say the least, is EDRAAK.
Tom Marquand rides for Mick Appleby, the horse is the only previous course winner in the field, won 31 days ago, so is fit.
The danger on trainer stats would be FIVETHOUSANDTOONE as Andrew Balding has saddled four for this, won with one, placed with one but, as I say, it’s all purely based on limited information, given how I work a race.
RON – EDRAAK
SEAN - EDRAAK
OMS 1-2-3 1. STORMY IRELAND – 15/2 > 9/2 – WON 4/1 2. ALRIGHT MARLENE – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 11/2 3. FULL BACK – 14/1 > 13/2 – WON 9/2JF
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – TREBLE – CONSTITUTION HILL, CRYSTAL GLORY, FLEMENSTIDE
SEAN - FLEMENSTIDE
This weeks Podcast looks at the fallout from the Bryony Frost case, whether racing is for cheats only and the price of a pint and a hot dog on a racecourse.
Obviously, we've got loads of winners for you, too!
For those hard of hearing please find below my side of the races converstaion, with selections of both myself and Sean Trivass.
Best of luck!
PODCAST 16/12/21
FRIDAY
ASCOT 2-20
Only five going to post and whilst I’ll not be betting here, I’m hoping JONBON is as impressive as he was on debut, lands the odds on for those that play and proves as good in 2023 over fences as I think he will be.
The “runes” say you need to be a four or five year old, carrying more than 11st and trading front two on the tissue….and arriving having won last time out (eight of the last 10 winners had done that).
I’m seeing 8/11 JONBON, then 5/1 KNAPPERS HILL….if anything else wins it, I’ll be stunned!...if JONBON doesn’t win, it wont be the end of the world as he’s a bona fide steeplechaser waiting to happen.
Cracking good race though and I’ve got to be with JONBON.
RON – JONBON
SEAN – I LIKE TO MOVE IT (E.W.)
ASCOT 2-55
Every winner in the last 10 years has been aged five, or six. Every winner in the same period of time has been front two on the tissue and seven of the last 10 winners arrived having won last time out. All 10 carried 11st or more.
Right now the market/weight/age stats tell me it’s between PIC D’ORHY and FAIVOIR….and with PIC D’ORHY having fallen last time out, and FAIVOIR winning, my selection has to be the Skelton runner.
He beat TORN AND FRAYED over course and distance last time out and the runner up ran a more than decent second to MY DROGO last weekend.
I’ll plump for FAIVOIR purely based on the runes.
RON – FAIVOIR
SEAN – PIC D’ORHY
SATURDAY
NAVAN 2-20
No tissue at my end I’m afraid so all I can do is tell you what to look out for on Saturday.
I’ve only seven previous running’s of this to play around with but I’m seeing that you have to be with a five- or six-year-old, as only one of the seven previous winners wasn’t from those age groupings.
11st 3lb and above because the last six winners all carried between 11st 3lb and 11st 5lb.
Only one winning favourite to date but, only one winner so far going off bigger than 7/1….I’d love an accurate tissue at this moment but, there we are.
Right now I have two horses with no jockeys up yet so I’m not even in possession of the field size and making a definitive selection is impossible given how I work.
Once I have all those details in my locker I’ll post up my selection on the website.
RON – FRONTAL ASSAULT 20/80
SEAN – FRONTAL ASSAULT E.W.
HAYDOCK 12-55
I’m disappointed with this turnout. Seven going to post but all of them look ordinary to me.
Only nine previous running’s and seven of those went to 5-y-o’s.
All carted 11st or more, and all bar a pair were front two on the tissue. Again, I have no tissue but my advice again is to wait for a proper market to go up, look for a five year old, in the front two, and get on.
The most obvious selection is NINA THE TERRIER but she looked cooked when coming down at the last hurdle at Newbury and as we saw last weekend, when SCEAU ROYAL ran as flat as a pancake, Alan King could be sending some to the well to often this early in the season….this will be her fourth run….same as SCEAU ROYAL.
She will most likely fit the trends but I couldn’t back her.
RON – NO BET
SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER
LINGFIELD 2-00
After last weekends debacle, I’m not sure I ever want to say the words “all weather” again!
We both reasoned why COLTRANE had a great chance, advised an e.w. play at the 6/1, the horse goes off 6/4 favourite and finishes plum last. Trainers rep couldn’t give the stewards any idea as to why he ran like a drain, either!
I’m seeing I need to be working with a four or five year old, they’ve won seven of the last 10 between them.
All bar SEA OF CHARM fit the weight range stats and with six of the last eight winners sitting in the first pair on the tissue that’s again my way in from a market angle….when I have a market.
It’s again another race I’ll need an accurate tissue for, before putting hard earned down so please check the website for an update.
RON – FELIX
SEAN – GARDEN PARADISE
ASCOT 1-15
Between 2011 and 2016, this was dominated by the five year olds but from 2017 onwards, you have three six year olds and a seven year old winning this.
Five year olds have called it a day here so I’m going to suggest a six or seven year old that is carrying 11st or more, and trading front two on the tissue, wins this. In the last 10 years eight winners were first or second favourite and, five went off the jolly.
The only qualifier based on an early tissue I have is PENCILFULLOFLEAD who travels over from Ireland and runs first time in a tongue tie.
He is running off level weights with the second favourite and yet, on official figures, he is 6lb his superior.
The third favourite, BLACK OP, gets 7lb off the Irish horse but is 11lb inferior on official figures and also 10 years of age, and I cannot find a winner of this older than seven.
Has to be PENCILFULLOFLEAD for me.
RON – PENCIFULLOFLEAD
SEAN - PENCILFULLOFLEAD
ASCOT 2-25
A wide spread of winning age groups here but top of the shop with five are eight year olds.
Everything carries 11st 7lb so no advantages there but market position of all 10 winners says you do not want to be outside the front three. Currently they are: * BUZZ * THYME HILL * RONALD PUMP
If Paisley Park could find his best form again then 10/1 is enormous. They’ve put a first time tongue tie on for Saturday and if that did something he’s an e.w. play but I want an 8-y-o, trading front three on the tissue and that’s RONALD PUMP.
He did me a big favour when getting beaten last time out because I had a nice place punt @ 22/1 and he ran second to HONEYSUCKLE over a trip on the sharp side.
He finished second in a Stayers Hurdle not so long ago, had a few niggles last season but if back to his best he must hit the frame in this.
He’s my 20/80.
RON – RONALD PUMP 20/80
SEAN - BUZZ
ASCOT 3-00
Lovely!
A 13 runner Handicap with a tissue of sorts, a host of tends and I’m looking forward to this race more than any of the others discussed here today.
Last year when we did this, I had MISTER MALARKY come out the winner on trends and he only went and won @ 16/1!
I nailed the 33/1 winner of this in 2018, top rated, and it would be nice to do that again!
Trends say….
Six, seven and eight year olds onside is my first port of call. That 33/1 winner bucked all trends and became the only nine year old winner of this.
Seven of those 10 winners also carried more than 11st and, following a run of four winners in the front two on the tissue between 2011 and 2014, it’s been winners at 20/1, 17/2, 33/1, 16/1 and 16/1 in the last five years.
It might sound daft….and probably is….but I’m going to suggest I want to be with a horse aged seven, eight or nine, carrying between 11st and 11st 5lb, sitting fourth favourite or worse, but no bigger than 20/1 (that 33/1 winner really was an anomaly.
Three of the last five winners actually arrived having a letter next to its name, following it’s last run.
If I whack that lot into the blender, the horse coming out as a 20/80 is STORM CONTROL. A beaten favourite last time out, they’ve given it a wind-op, it already wears a tongue tie and cheekpieces so clearly needs help!
Purely for Podcast purposes, I’ll bang that up as a 20/80 but I’m also looking forward to seeing what my figures say in the morning.
RON – STORM CONTROL 20/80
SEAN – JERRYSBACK E.W.
OMMS 3-2-1 * TREASURE DILLON – 10/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/1 * PRESENT VALUE – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 3/1 * PITTSBURG – 16/1 > 9/1 – WON 10/3F
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – RONALD PUMP 20/80
SEAN - PENCILFULLOFLEAD
Just as we were preparing for the Podcast the result of the hearing into bullying came through and that dominates the chatter but these are my words relating to the races discussed:
PODCAST 09/12/21
FRIDAY
CHELTENHAM 2-25
I’ll be providing Ratings for this race but for I’ve enough back stats to produce Scribblings, too.
Nothing younger than seven, nothing older than 10….and with only one winner in the last nine years younger than eight and seven of the last 10 winners aged eight or nine, I’m going to look to that pair of age groups for my winner here.
I’m seeing no weight advantage at all and we’ve even had two carrying less than 10st in 2014 and 2015.
Market position of the last 10 winners suggests you drop the favourite for both win and place suggestions. Only one of the last six has placed and not a winner in the last decade.
Front four on the tissue makes sense as six of the 10 were so the only qualifier here is COMMODORE, trained by Venetia Williams.
She has saddled four in this race, in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with another.
I’ll have COMMODORE as a 20/80
Ron – COMMODORE – 20/80
Sean – SANTINI – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 3-00
A Cross Country event….I would close the curtains if they ran that in my back garden….hate them. They have no place at Cheltenham (he says, chucking a cat into the pigeon loft!).
Seriously, for betting purposes, I’d not spend a bean on them but Dick Dastardly has put it in the Podcast running order so, here goes….
In the last five years we’ve seen horses aged 11, 12, 8, 5 and 9 winning this but, generally, you want a nine year old…or older.
Definitely 11st or more on your back….nine of the last 10 winners suggest that is a positive trend, and in the first three on the tissue….eight of the last 10 winners were.
The winner, if trends speak the truth, is MIDNIGHT MAESTRO who is trained by the Cross Country King, Enda Bolger, runs in the colours of JP McManus, is a 9-y-o sitting co-favourite of three as I type and is a 20/80 @ the 5/1
Ron – MIDNIGHT MAESTRO – 20/80
Sean – ALPHA DES OBEAUX – E.W.
SATURDAY
DONCASTER 2-40
Obviously going to be won by a 3-y-o but, which one?
Weight stats are heavily in favour of horses carrying 11st or more and trading front two on the tissue and right now that horse would be PORTICELLO.
Another stat I’m liking is that four of the last five winners of this arrived having won last time out and of the front two on the tissue, he’s the only qualifier.
He won a Listed race at Wetherby turning cartwheels and arrives unbeaten in two career starts for a yard still bang in form and running a very healthy 51% RTF figure. The market for this has been funny in that since a tissue was put up, everything has drifted
Ron – PORTICELLO
Sean - KOLISI – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 12-05
Five of the last seven winners of this went off odds on favourite and nine of those 10 winners arrived having either won or placed last time out.
In the last seven years only one winner went off bigger than 7/4 but this feels like a much weaker renewal than those that have gone before. I see no Defi Du Seuil, Apple’s Shakira, or Adagio in here and so bearing that in mind, I’m thinking that purely for Podcast purposes, I’m going to suggest a 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL.
He arrives the only winner last time out and is currently priced up @ 6/1.
I was impressed with the favourite, YORKSEA, on debut but felt he has better horses that had tried to win the race, falling into his lap, which helped him nab third place.
This race did us a favour in 2019 when we were all over BOTOX HAS and I had the pleasure of being there with Post Racing members….a great day out and one I look forward to repeating at some point in the future.
I’ll go 20/80 MESSAGE PERSONNEL
Ron – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – 20/80
Sean – MESSAGE PERSONNEL – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 12-40
A great shame that BOB OLINGER isn’t here because I wanted to see MY DROGO beat him and go favourite for the Arkle.
If MY DROGO stands up, he wins this head in chest. He didn’t jump the fence he felt at badly at all when making debut, he just seemed to knuckle on landing and the bag of spanners was off.
Bag of spanners is nickname for Harry Skelton….because, in a finish, he quite simply looks like a plumbers bag of spanners as said plumber walks up the driveway.
There are a few bags of spanners riding right now and when they are riding one of mine, I close my eyes and pray, as they approach the last fence, especially if they are upsides another horse and we need a good jump. The number of time we have spanners flying all over the place and a horse running loose after that last fence is becoming the stuff of legend.
MY DROGO to win
Ron – MY DROGO
Sean – MY DROGO
CHELTENHAM 2-25
Only six going to post and whilst the last two winners have been priced 12/1 and 14/1, traditionally this goes to a five year old, in the front three on the tissue and (usually), trained by Twiston-Davies, who has sent nine for this and won with three.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t got one this year so I’m looking to one of BLAZING KHAL, GELINO BELLO and BARONY LEGENDS.
The Irish took this last year with an outsider but have the favourite on Saturday in BLAZING KHAL. He beat GELINO BELLO at the last meeting here, is currently unbeaten this season and I can see no reason why these two will not dominate the race as the betting suggests they will, and equally no reason why the Paul Nicholls runner should reverse that form from November.
Ron - BLAZING KHAL
Sean – BALLYGRIFFINLODGE – E.W.
CHELTENHAM 3-00
The thing about Graded races is that the cream usually rises to the top and again the market position of the last 10 winners bears that out, with six winning favourites a pair of third favourites and a second favourite all doing the business so working with trends means a shortlist straight away of SONG FOR SOMEONE, SCEAU ROYAL and GUARD YOUR DREAMS.
SCEAU ROYAL ran a belter in the Fighting Fifth and if the official marks are right, he wins this as he’s effectively 3lb better of with the horse they have put in favourite, SONG FOR SOMEONE, and 5lb better off with GUARD YOUR DREAMS.
The Alan King runner must be one of the most consistent horses in training, and in single figure fields at Cheltenham, has form figures reading 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, 5….that third was to ALTIOR in a Champion Chase, when he led over the last so I’ll forgive him that one!
His Cheltenham form sways me towards him and if he doesn’t find a fourth run in less than two months catching him out, I think he’ll win this.
Ron – SCEAU ROYAL
Sean – SCEAU ROYAL
NEWCASTLE 2-20
I’ve very limited trends here as we’ve only had four previous running’s of this race and two of those have been won by horses trading 14/1 and 9/1, with two winning favourites either side of them.
If I fancied being a lunatic, I’d suggest that this time is the turn of the favourite but that’s the same as Karen telling me she’d like a fiver on the grey horse with the big backside!
Only one of the four winners to date has arrived having finished out of the front four on the tissue so far, but I have no tissue right now so could not tell you how this will look on Saturday afternoon.
I imagine COLTRANE will be prominent in the market, he is the only runner in here with a front four finishing position last time out and so, purely for Podcast purposes, I’m a COLTRANE man.
Ron – COLTRANE – 20/80
Sean – COLTRANE – E.W.
OMS 1-2-3 * GLADIATEUR ALLEN – 10/1 > 15/2 – WON 13/2 * LIGHT FLICKER 14/1 (AND STRONG) > 8/1 – WON 5/1 * THE BOAT – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 10/3F
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – SCEAU ROYAL (Cheltenham 3-00)
SEAN – SCEAU ROYAL (Cheltenham 3-00)
The lads have been on brilliant form this week, Sean nailng the 12/1 winner of the Royal Bond last weekend, Ron advising a place only play RONALD PUMP, who again followed Honeysuckle home @ 22/1 and then notching an amazing 1966/1 Trifecta with a top three 1-2-3 in a Rated race on Saturday!
Ron's Podcast text this week reads:
PODCAST 02/12/21
FRIDAY
EXETER 2-05
The last 10 running’s have been dominated by horses aged five, six and seven. The six going to post tomorrow are five, six and seven.
With the exception of FLOWING CADENZA, they all carry 11st 2lb and as only one winner in the last decade has carried less than 11st, we can drop the 100/1 outsider.
We’ve had nine previous running’s of this race and the winner has only ever once been outside the front two on the tissue and right now it’s 6/4 joint favourite ADRIMEL and BOOTHILL.
It’s then 7/1 bar that pair.
BOOTHILL has had a race already this season and the word from Harry Fry’s yard is they think he could be top class over fences. I cannot see a winner of this previously, doing so on seasonal debut and so I’m with BOOTHILL as ADRIMEL has been missing for 237 days.
RON – BOOTHILL
SEAN - ADRIMEL
SANDOWN 2-25
Only five heading to post but a little cracker, as all five arrive having won last time out.
Horses aged four, five and six have dominated this but as the five runner comprise of 3 x 5-y-o’s and a brace of 6-y-o’s, that’s no help.
The market though does give off fumes and even though the winners of this in 2018 and 2019 were priced 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, seven of the last 10 winners were sited from two on the tissue.
Right now you are looking to one of: * BRAVE KINGDOM * FAIR FRONTIERES
….if that trend holds up.
The latter is trained by Kim Bailey and his horses have not been firing during the first four weeks of the core season. He has only run three in the last two weeks and by contrast Paul Nicholls, who trains BRAVE KINGDOM, is bang on blob with 12 of his last 43 runners winning, and 11 others finishing second or third.
I’ll go with BRAVE KINGDOM but it’s not a race I’d like to have a bet in.
RON – BRAVE KINGDOM
SEAN – VIVA LAVILLA
SATURDAY
AINTREE 12-20
I’m having Déjà vu!
I’m just going to revisit what I said last week as this race should have taken place at Carlisle, which we lost.
“ANOTHER WHERE ONLY FOUR ARE CURRENTLY GOING TO POST BUT INTRIGUING THAT MULLINS SENDS OVER ELIMAY AND HAS BOOKED BRIAN HUGHES TO RIDE HER.
Brian Hughes is now elsewhere and Aiden Coleman takes over the steering.
HE SENT BENIE DE DIEUX OVER TO WIN THIS IN 2017 AND I EXPECT ELIMAY TO GO OFF FAVOURITE AND WIN.
SHE RACES OFF LEVEL WEIGHTS WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SECOND FAVOURITE ANNIE MC AND YET IS OFFICIALLY 7LB THE BETTER HORSE.
SHE IS ANOTHER IN ONE OF OUR 10 TO FOLLOW LINES AND I EXPECT POINTS ON THE BOARD.
RON – ELIMAY
SEAN – ELIMAY
AINTREE 1-30
ADDOSH carries a penalty because she has won a Class 2 weight for age and the last horse to win this doing likewise was GITANE DU BERLAIS in 2013.
That winner was trained by Willie Mullins and went off 5/4 favourite and on Saturday I’m thinking we’ll see another Irish trained favourite in WHITE PEPPER, although that has gone from 7/4 > 5/2.
All three years of age, all the horses I’m interested in carrying 10st 12lb and so all I have to apply here from a trends angle, is market position.
Last season we had a 14/1 boil over and in 2017 the Gavin Cromwell trained FAMOUS MILLY won @ 10/1 but outside that pair, nothing has won this priced bigger than 4/1
The only qualifier, currently, is WHITE PEPPER, also trained by Gavin Cromwell.
So many of these are wholly unexposed and so I’ll just post up WHITE PEPPER as my selection but again, not a race I’d play with cash.
RON – WHITE PEPPER
SEAN – ADDOSH E.W.
AINTREE 2-05
I’m only interested in older horses here as the last five winners have been aged 10, 9, 9, 8, 9
Only one of the last 10 winners have carried more than 11st 6lb but that doesn’t help because all fall into the correct weight category.
Market position of our last 10 winners is interesting though. Last year the fourth best on the tissue won @ 16/1 but prior to that, you needed to be front three on the tissue and right now they are: * PROTEKTORAT * IMPERIAL AURA * NATIVE RIVER
No 11 year old has won this previously so we drop NATIVE RIVER. He has been a great horse for connections but they are old legs now.
IMPERIAL AURA is running for that yard I mentioned earlier, that has not started the season well….Kim Bailey….and he’s also finding it hard to complete a race, now having failed three times in succession to do so.
That leaves me with PROTEKTORAT, who runs for another yard in belting form, a previous course winner, who ran an absolute screamer in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
He has to be my pick here.
RON – PROTEKTORAT
SEAN – TIGER ROLL E.W.
NAVAN 12-33
Five runners, no tissue but with six of the last eight winners being aged five, and with eight of the last 10 winners of this trained by either Mullins or Elliott, I’ve got it down to one of GINTO or MR FRED ROGERS….both 5-y-o’s, trained by Elliott….Mullins has nowt entered.
Right now I’m leaning towards GINTO, purely and simply because he’s a CD winner.
He’s also by the sire of our very own WALK ON HIGH, who most likely runs at Warwick next Thursday, and I’m becoming a huge fan of anything by WALK IN THE PARK, especially after the performance of JONBON.
Purely guesswork here as limited trends and information but I’ll get with GINTO.
RON – GINTO
SEAN - GINTO
NAVAN 1-43
Now we really do move into the realms of the magic pin. A Novice Chase with only six previous runs to its name, a strong bias towards six year olds (they have won five of the six running’s), but that has been won four times by the favourite, including the last three running’s, three of which have been odds on and a second favourite that won at Evens.
Gordon Elliott has won three of the last four of these and he saddles a brace of 4-y-o’s, the best of which is surely RIVIERE D’ETEL.
As I say, no trends to work with really, no tissue (If I had one I could nail this now!), and so I’ll just bung up an Elliott runner because he farms it. Hopefully it goes off favourite because whatever does, probably wins it.
RON – RIVIERE D’ETEL
SEAN – DREAL DEAL E.W.
SANDOWN 1-50
Five year olds have won seven of the last 10 of these and four of the last five but are not represented on Saturday so I’m looking next at four and five year olds, as nothing older than six had taken this prize home….which gets the current forecast second favourite EDWARDSTONE beaten.
Last year we had the youngest horse in a decade winning, when ALLMANKIND took it as a 4-y-o….he was also the first runner in the last 10 years to carry less than 11st.
This race is prone to throwing up a big priced winner and we had a 14/1 shot win in 2019, an 11/1 shot in 2017 and another 14/1 winner in 2015.
Tell you what I have found interesting, whilst trying to work this race out….a little four runner race at Newton Abbot, that was run on the 10th of October. It was won by WAR LORD, who runs here and has won since.
The second horse home that day, WITNESS PROTECTION, has come out and won since, the third placed horse, IL RIDOTO, came out last weekend and won @ 4/1….a Scribblings selection…..he too runs here. The fourth placed horses was ROCKSTAR RONNIE who has come out and won twice since. Now that’s a race proving serious kit!
I imagine everyone will be looking to THIRD TIME LUCKI to run these ragged and he might well do that as he’s a brilliant jumper. I thought he was crying enough last time out though.
I’m liking that little Newton Abbot race and even though IL RIDOTO has obviously improved a bundle for his first run in this country, he’s got to improve again to turn the form around with WAR LORD who is unbeaten in two over fences and at around 6/1 looks proper 20/80 material against the short priced favourite.
RON – WAR LORD – 20/80
SEAN – THIRD TIME LUCKI
SANDOWN 2-25
The Tingle Creek….named after a horse who would have taken this lot to the cleaners.
It is a shame SHISHKIN isn’t here, not only because it means another small field for a first prize of £85k but because he was such a promising chaser last season and I just want to see the best taking on the best.
For me it’s a two horse race, not least because the front two on the tissue have provided the winner of the race in eight of the last 10 running’s and if neither of CHACUN POUR SOI or NUBE NEGRA wins this, I’d lose money if I were betting….which I wont be.
The forecast tissue tells me that it will be CHACUN POUR SOI. He is 6/4 > 11/8 whilst the Skelton trained runner is 6/4 > 5/2.
CHACUN POUR SOI is officially 8lb the better horse of the two mentioned and until I see for myself that the wheels have come off that Mullins runner, I’m with CHACUN POUR SOI
RON – CHACUN POUR SOI
SEAN – CHACUN POUR SOI
OMMS 1-2-3 * BLAKLION – 8/1 > 11/2 – WON 3/1 * GEGE VILLE – 20/1 > 8/1 – WON 17/2 * NOT SO SLEEPY – 20/1 > 8/1 – DEAD HEATED 18/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON - WAR LORD 20/80 (Sandown 1-50)
SEAN – CHACUN POUR SOI
Can they follow that? A 40/1 Podcast winner from overseas last weekend but this week Sean and Ron discuss racing much closer to home.
For those hard of hearing and unable to tune in these are the words from Ron's side of the conversation, with selections from both himself, and Sean Trivass
PODCAST 26/11/21
SATURDAY
NEWBURY 12-10
I’D NOT WANT TO BE WORKING WITH ANYTHING OLDER THAN A SIX YEAR OLD AS HORSES SIX OR YOUNGER HAVE WON ALL NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE.
AS EVERYTHING CARRIES 11ST OR MORE IT’S THE MARKETS WE GO TO FOR THE BEST CLUE AND THAT BEING NO HORSE OUTSIDE THE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE TO DATE, HAS WON THIS.
THE EARLY TISSUE THEREFORE SUGGESTS ONE OF * NINA THE TERRIER * ELLE EST BELLE * AHORSEWITHNONAME
….WINS IT.
ALAN KING TRAINS THE CURRENT FAVOURITE, NINA THE TERRIER, WHO ARRIVES UNBEATEN THIS SEASON, BUT HE HAS TRIED SEVEN TIMES TO WIN THIS AND ONLY PLACED WITH THREE.
FOUR OF THR LAST FIVE WINNERS ARRIVED HAVING WON, OR FINISHED SECOND LAST TIME OUT AND THAT STAT WOULD RULE OUR ELLE EST BELLE, WHO CAME HOME THIRD LAST TIME WE SAW HER.
FAVOURITES HAVE A GREAT RECORD IN THIS AND I’M THINKING ALAN KING WILL BREAK HIS DUCK TOMORROW….I’M WITH NINA THE TERRIER.
RON – NINA THE TERRIER
SEAN – NINA THE TERRIER
NEWBURY 12-40
ONLY FOUR GOING TO POST BUT IT LOOKS A DOOZIE!
HENRY DE BROMHEAD SENDS MR INCREDIBLE OVER FROM IRELAND AND HE LOOKED VERY GOOD ON SEASONAL DEBUT OVER THERE.
TRENDS TELL ME TO LOOK FOR A HORSE AGED FIVE OR SIX. THEY HAVE TAKEN EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 RUNNING’S.
AGAIN, WEIGHT MEANS NOTHING AS THEY ALL CARRY THE SAME BURDEN AND WHILST MARKET STATS INDICATE YOU NEED TO BE FRONT THREE ON THE TISSUE, ASHTOWN LAD TRADES 11/2 CURRENTLY, FOURTH FAVOURITE OF THE FOUR….BUT THIRD FAVOURITE IS 5/1.
IT IS THAT HORSE, FLASH COLLONGES, THAT INTERESTS ME MOST AS HE IS TRAINED BY PAUL NICHOLLS, WHO HAS WON THIS RACE THREE TIMES FROM EIGHT ENRTIRES, WINNING IT IN 2020, 2019 ANS 2013.
GREAT THINGS ARE EXPECTED FROM AHOY SENOR THIS YEAR. HE BEAT BRAVEMANSGAME AT AINTREE WHEN 66/1 AND THAT IS CRACKING GOOD FORM, IF IT WASN’T AN END OF SEASON RESULT.
I THINK ONE OF MR INCREDIBLE OR FLASH COLLONGES TAKES THIS AND WITH NICHOLLS HAVING WON THE LAST TWO RUNNING’S, ONCE WITH A SEASONAL DEBUTANTE, I’LL HAVE A LITTLE PUNT FLASH COLLONGES.
RON – FLASH COLLONGES
SEAN – AHOY SENOR
NEWBURY 2-25
ANOTHER FOUR RUNNER RACE BUT THE MARKET SUGGESTS THERE IS VERY LITTLE BETWEEN ALL FOUR. ONEMOREFORTHEROAD IS CURRENTLY THE 4/1 “OUTSIDER”!
AGE GROUPINGS ARE TELLING ME NOTHING. HERE WE HAVE 2 X 5-Y-O’S TAKING ON 2 X 6-Y-O’S AND THE LAST FOUR RUNNINGS HAVE BEEN WON BY TWO FROM EACH OF THOSE AGE GROUPS.
THE LAST SIX WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST OR MORE AND THAT RULES OUT TWO, CAPTAIN MORGS AND ONEMOREFORTHEROAD.
OF THE PAIR LEFT, SOARING GLORY / GOWEL ROAD, THEY ARE BOTH COURSE AND DISTANCE WINNERS, AND IT’S HERE I HAVE TO GO ALL PEDANTIC.
WHEN A WINNER HAS CARRIED 11ST OR MORE TO VICTORY, IT HAS NOT CARRIED LESS THAN 11ST 3LB. TWO OF THE LAST FIVE WINNERS CARRIED 11ST 10LB AND THAT SUGGESTS TO ME I HAVE TO NOMINATE SOARING GLORY.
I SHOPULD ALSO POINT OUT THAT NICKY HENDERSON HAS TRAINED THE LAST TWO WINNERS AND FOUR OF THE LAST NINE SO IF YOU FANCY CAPTAIN MORGS DON’T LET ME PUT YOU OFF!
RON – SOARING GLORY
SEAN – SOARING GLORY
NEWCASTLE 12-55
THE LAST THREE WINNERS OF THIS WENT IN AT 50/1, 40/1 AND 10/1….AND THE LAST SIX WINNERS HAVE ALL BEEN FIVE YEAR OLDS.
EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS ALL CARRIED 11ST 3LB OR MORE AND WHILST WE HAVE SEEN SOME TOTALLY BONKERS RESULTS MOST RECENTLY, THE NORM IS TO GO LOOKING FOR OUR WINNER IN THE FRONT FOUR ON THE TISSUE….SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS WERE, INCLUDING THAT 10/1 SHOT LAST YEAR.
THAT MEANS I’M LOOKING TO ONE OF * MR GLASS * CAPTAIN QUINT
RIGHT AGE, WEIGHT, MARKET POSITION.
ROSE DOBBIN TRAINS CAPTAIN QUINT AND IN THE LAST 10 YEARS SHE HAS SADDLED THREE FOR THIS, WON WITH ONE, PLACED WITH ANOTHER.
COMMON SENSE SAYS PICK MR GLASS. TRAINED BY PAUL NICHOLLS, DOTTED UP ON HURDLING DEBUT, AND IT’S A GOOD WALK FROM DITCHEAT TO NEWCASTLE.
I’M GOING 20/80 WITH THE DOBBIN RUNNER THOUGH AS THE SUGGESTED 15/2 VERSUS THE 11/10 GIVES ME A PLACE PLAY IF THE FAVOURITE BLOWS THEM AWAY.
RON – CAPTAIN QUINT – 20/80
SEAN – CAPTAIN QUINT – E.W
NEWCASTLE 2-05
LOVE THIS RACE.
AGAIN THOUGH, WE’VE SEEN SOME SERIOUSLY FUNKY RESULTS IN RECENT YEARS, LAST YEAR A 66/1 SHOT BLEW THEM AWAY.
NORMALLY I’M LOOKING FOR A HORSE AGED EIGHT, OR OLDER. THEY HAVE WON EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS….THE LAST TWO WINNERS HAVE BEEN 10-Y-O’S PRICED 20/1 AND 66/1
YOU NEED TO BE CARRYING 10ST 10LB OR MORE (THE LAST 10 HAVE DONE SO), AND PRIOR TO US GETTING SILLY PRICED WINNERS, THE MOST LIKELY SPOT ON THE TISSUE FOR A PLAY WAS FRONT FOUR. SIX OF THE PREVIOUS SEVEN WINNERS WERE.
I SHOULD JUST SAY, THE FAVOURITE, WHATEVER IT IS COME OFF TIME, IS NAILED ON TOR PLACEPOT PLAYERS….SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE TO FINISH CAME HOME FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD.
I’M GOING TO SAY LOOK FOR A HORSE FRONT FOUR ON THE TISSUE, CARRYING BETWEEN 10ST 10LB AND 11ST 12LB, AGED 8-11
TWO TO WORK WITH * THE FERRY MAN * AYE RIGHT
NOW, I’M GOING TO SELECT AYE RIGHT BECAUSE ONLY TWO OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS ARRIVED FOR THIS HAVING WON OR PLACED LAST TIME OUT AND THE HARRIET GRAHAM TRAINED RUNNER CAME HOME FIFTH ON SEASONAL DEBUT, AND IS A PREVIOUS CD WINNER.
YOU HAVE TO GO 20/80 BECAUSE ANY HORSE THAT HAS MANAGED JUST ONE WIN FROM 10 STARTS OVER FENCES IS CLEARLY DIFFICULT TO WIN WITH. HE HAS PLACE IN ANOTHER FIVE AND I’M EXPECTING TO AT LEAST GET A RETURN OFF MY “80”
RON – AYE RIGHT – 20/80
SEAN – DINGO DOLLAR – E.W
NEWCASTLE 3-15
I’M QUITE SURE NICKY HENDERSON WOULD HAVE TRAINED THE LAST FOUR WINNERS OF THIS, HAD BUVEUR D’AIR NOT FINISHED WITH A CHUNK OF HURDLE STICKING OUT OF HIS HOOF WHEN BEATEN A SHORT HEAD BY CORNERSTONE LAD IN 2019.
NORMAL SERVICE WAS RESUMED LAST YEAR WHEN EPATANTE HOSED UP, BEATING ONE OF TOMORROW’S RIVALS SCEAU ROYAL BY MORE THAN FOUR LENGTHS.
THE WINNER OF THIS HAS BEEN FRONT TWO ON THE TISSUE IN SEVEN OF THE LAST 10 RUNNINGS AND AGAIN, THE FAVOURITE WOULD HAVE WON THREE OF THE LAST FOUR BUT FOR THAT INCIDENT MENTIONED.
I MAKE IT BETWEEN EPATANTE AND MONMIRAL, IF TRENDS SPEAK TRUE IN 2021.
HOWEVER, ONLY ONE 4-Y-O HAS WON THIS IN THE LAST DECADE AND MONMIRAL IS GOING TO HAVE TO BE VERY GOOD TO BEAT THE HENDERSON HORSE, ESPECIALLY GIVING A HORSE RATED 1LB SUPERIOR, 7LB!
I’M WITH EPATANTE
RON – EPATANTE
SEAN – EPATANTE
SUNDAY
FAIRYHOUSE 1-05
THE BEST HORSES IN IRELAND ARE HOUSED IN THE BEST YARDS AND IT’S NO SURPRISE THAT EIGHT OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS HAVE COME FROM ONE OF TWO TRAINERS, WILLIE MULLINS AND GORDON ELLIOTT.
THAY HAVE ALSO BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST SEVEN BETWEEN THEM…4-3 TO MULLINS.
THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR FIVE OF THE EIGHT RUNNERS SET TO GO TO POST AND I RECKON ALL WE NEED TO DO BETWEEN US, IS WORK OUT WHICH ONE WINS.
THE FAVOURITE HAS WON THE LAST FOUR RUNNINGS, AND FIVE OF THE LAST SIX.
FUNNY THING IS, THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVOURITE IS TRAINED BY NEITHER OF THEM, MY MATE MOZZIE, FROM THE GAVIN CROMWELL YARD TOP DOG ON THE TISSUE I’M LOOKING AT.
SECOND FAVOURITE (AND EASY TO BACK IF WHAT I’M LOOKING AT IS RIGHT), IS MIGHTY POTTER FROM THE ELLIOTT YARD AND WITH ALL THREE MULLINS RUNNERS CURRENTLY 11/1 OR BIGGER, I’M THINKING, IF TRAINER TRENDS ARE RIGHT, ONE OF * MIGHTY POTTER * THREE STRIPE LIFE
I WAS VERY IMPRESSED BY THE SECOND NAMED OF THOSE ELLIOTT HORSES ON SEASONAL DEBUT….SO MUCH SO, I BANGED IT IN A TEN TO FOLLOW LINE.
THAT WIN CAME OVER COURSE AND DISTANCE AND IF I CAN GET 4/1, I’LL GO 20/80
RON – THREE STRIPE LIFE – 20/80
SEAN – STATUAIRE – E.W
FAIRYHOUSE 1-35
ANOTHER RACE DOMINATED BY THE MULLINS AND ELLIOTT YARDS, SEVEN OF THE LAST NINE WINNERS THEY HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR.
TO SUCCEED ON SUNDAY THOUGH, THEY WILL BOTH HAVE TO BUCK THE TISSUE TRENDS, WHICH STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE TRADING BIGGER THAN 7/2.
NINE OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS WERE 7/2 OR SHORTER AND FOUR OF THE LAST SIX FAVOURITES HAVE OBLIGED.
YOU WANT TO BE WITH A FIVE OF SIX YEAR OLD, TOO….SEVEN OF THE LAST EIGHT WINNERS WERE.
THE WINNER THEN IS ONE OF: * LIFETIME AMBITION * GABYNAKO
THE LAST NAMED OPENED THE 7/4 FAVOURITE BUT IS NOW 3/1, WHILST THE HARRINGTON TRAINED LIFETIME AMBITION IS THE CURRENT 5/2 JOLLY.
I LIKE THIS FAVOURITE, WHO JUMPED THEM SILLY ON SEASONAL DEBUT BEATING THE CURRENT SECOND FAVOURITE ON SUNDAY, BEACON EDGE, NEARLY THREE LENGTHS. I RECKON THEY’LL PROBABLY FINISH IN THE SAME ORDER AGAIN AND I’M WITH LIFETIME AMBITION.
RON – LIFETIME AMBITION
SEAN – LIFETIME AMBITION
FAIRYHOUSE 2-40
I’D LOVE TO SIT HERE AND TELL YOU I CAN GET HONEYSUCKLE BEATEN….BUT I CANNOT.
SHE HAS WON THIS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, IS TOUGH AS OLD BOOTS, THEREIGNING CHAMPION HURDLER, AND IS AROUND 4/7 TO DEFEND HER CROWN HERE.
SALDIER OPENED 5/1 SECOND FAVOURITE….YOU CAN NOW HAVE 7/1…IT’S THEN 10/1 BAR THAT PAIR.
IF I WERE LOOKING FOR A PLACE PLAY THEN RONALD PUMP, THE RUNNER UP IN THIS RACE LAST YEAR AND A PREVIOUS CD WINNER, IS BIG @ 14/1 BUT I’M ALL HONEYSUCKLE.
RON – HONEYSUCKLE
SEAN – HONEYSUCKLE
CARLISLE 1-45
ANOTHER WHERE ONLY FOUR ARE CURRENTLY GOING TO POST BUT INTRIGUING THAT MULLINS SENDS OVER ELIMAY AND HAS BOOKED BRIAN HUGHES TO RIDE HER.
HE SENT BENIE DE DIEUX OVER TO WIN THIS IN 2017 AND I EXPECT ELIMAY TO GO OFF FAVOURITE AND WIN.
SHE RACES OFF LEVEL WEIGHTS WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SECOND FAVOURITE ANNIE MC AND YET IS OFFICIALLY 7LB THE BETTER HORSE.
SHE IS ANOTHER IN ONE OF OUR 10 TO FOLLOW LINES AND I XPECT POINTS ON THE BOARD.
RON – ELIMAY
SEAN – ELIMAY
OMMS * RUNASIMI RIVER – 13/2 > 5/1 – WON 12/1 * TOMMY’S OSCAR – 5/1 > 3/1 – WON 10/3 * SHERBORNE – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 7/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON
E.W TREBLE * AYE RIGHT (NEWCASTLE 2-05) * LIFETIME AMBITION (FAIRYHOUSE 1-05) * THREE STRIPE LIFE (FAIRYHOUSE 1-35)
SEAN
LIFETIME AMBITION
Plenty discussed this weekend including, was Bryony given rough justice, what goes on when a trainer is banned....but isn't....farewell to Simon Claisse and races at Sakhir, Chepstow, Ascot and Haydock disected
For those hard of hearing and wishing to know what Sean and Ron selected this is Ron's text, with Sean's selections for each race discussed:
SAKHIR 1-00PM
Only two years old this race and gets Group 3 status for the first time this year.
They have £500k up for grabs and it’s a seriously International affair, with the Brits having six of the 14 runners racing for them and if we can claim Saaed Bin Suroor as one of our own now, it’s half the field.
The Boys in Blue are responsible for four of the first five on the tissue that I’ve seen and Charlie Appleby has two of the first three on that tissue running for him….and it’s his ZAKOUSKI trading the clear favourite @ 9/4 as I speak.
That speaks volumes for his improvement this year as LORD GLITTERS beat him easily in Dubai in January and yet the O’Meara horse is around 25/1 tomorrow.
Are you sensing an impending change of stable jockey at O’Meara’s?
Jason Watson is getting a lot of rides there since leaving Roger Charlton’s place and with Tudhope riding for Clipper Logistics, I just get a feeling we’ll hear some news in the very near future.
What’s going to win it?
Trends tell me nothing but I’ve liked ZAKOUSKI for a while now, he did me a favour in October and I’d think he’ll take a bit of beating. Only one run since February, he’s going there fresh and I think he’ll win.
RON – ZAKOUSKI
SEAN - ZAKOUSKI
CHEPSTOW 1-45
Seven winners have been aged five and we’ve also seen horses of that age grouping winning four of the last five running’s of the race so let’s go with horses of that age, trading front three on the tissue….I say that because eight of the last 10 winners did so and, we’ve seen six winning favourites….although I should point out we’ve has winners at 16/1 and 14/1 in two of the last three renewals.
I’ve narrowed it down pretty quickly To CHANCEUX and WAR CALL. The only two five year olds in the front three on the tissue they’ll trade very short I imagine, and as well as the Skelton horses are going right now, I’m with CHANCEUX, trained by Alistair Ralph.
He was never ridden to win last time as he’d have been given a hard race against a decent winner for no good reason.
WAR CALL’s fourth first time after a wind op was a good run as the winner won at Cheltenham last weekend. I’ll not be betting here myself because these races do not float my boat but for Podcast purposes, I’ll go CHANCEUX
RON – CHANCEUX
SEAN – WHYNOTNOWKEN E.W.
SATURDAY
HAYDOCK 12-10
I’m wondering what was wrong with SONIGINO last weekend as he has been supported the night before the race but was pulled out with a vets certificate?
I was going to start by saying we want a four or five-year-old here but that’d make me look more stupid than smart, as the six currently going to post are aged four, or five!
With no tissue to work with I’m left looking at projected odds and they have MIGHT I trading 6/5 for Harry Fry and the horse he beat very easily on October 21st, THUNDER ROCK, has since bolted up himself at Wetherby last Saturday and the form looks great.
Arriving here for this has not been a negative in the last decade as five winners of those last 10 winners of this have done so but that only rules out KNICKERBOCKERGLORY but with six of those 10 winners going off favourite, right now I’m in the Fry camp and will run with MIGHT I
RON – MIGHT I
SEAN – MIGHT I
HAYDOCK 1-50
Just four going to post and it’s like a plague on NH racing right now. The better the race, the fewer turn out for it.
Only five or six year olds win this so right away we are down to a pair: * BRAVEMANSGAME * PAY THE PIPER
Only one winner of this, in the last 10 years, has gone off bigger than 7/2 and so without much of a fuss it’s BRAVEMANSGAME doing the winning on Saturday.
RON – BRAVEMANSGAME
SEAN - BRAVEMANSGAME
HAYDOCK 3-00
The better ground has enticed a decent sized field for this and it’s great to see A PLUS TARD being sent over from Ireland to give it a crack.
No horse in here though, has ideal conditions. For instance, BRISTOL DE MAI is 0-7 on good to soft, and whilst ROYAL PAGAILLE is 2-2 at the track, he surely needs everything to require flippers and snorkel….this ground will not play to his strengths
For me it’s a race to watch only but for those looking to have a little fun bet, I’d go looking for a horse aged seven or younger. Five of the last 10 winners were.
The only two runners in here that fit are A PLUS TARD and ROYAL PAGAILLE and with just two winners in the last nine years going off bigger than 100/30, I have to suggest the Irish raider wins it. His second in the Gold Cup last season is great form and he should win, if fully fit.
RON – A PLUS TARD
SEAN – A PLUS TARD
ASCOT 2-05
Only six in here but any of them could win this.
The runes are telling me the following: * A seven or eight year old will win it so, that’s one of DASHEL DRASHER, DEFI DU SEUIL or PISTOL WHIPPED. * The winner will be front three on the tissue as all bar one of the last 10 winners were so that’s PISTOL WHIPPED dropped * The winner will be trained by one of Paul Nicholls or Philip Hobbs because they have won seven of the last 10 between them and so, that means our winner must be DEFI DU SEUIL
He’s an enigma wrapped up in a conundrum. One of those horses, much like CYRNAME, that you know has tons of ability….could be champions….but they very rarely show it on a racecourse.
I have to go with my trends and post up DEFI DU SEUIL but no way am I confident.
RON – DEFI DU SEUIL
SEAN – DEFI DU SEUIL
ASCOT 2-40
I have put BUZZ in one of our 10 to Follow lines and obviously hope he scoots in but we’ll see what the runes say.
A shame only five go to post but I’ve long given up being surprised this will happen. Six of the last eight winners were aged five, or six and every winner to date has been front three on the tissue, with no winner of any in the last decade going off bigger than 3/1 so if the runes are speaking true, the only winner can be BUZZ.
I’d love to take longer trying to sort these races out but working as I do with trends, and those quickly eliminating the majority on tissue price alone, I’m left doing what I’m doing now, and waffling!
RON - BUZZ
SEAN - GOSHEN
PICK OF THE OMMS
3 – OUR IDIC BOY – 15/2 > 10/3 – WON 5/2
2 – ROLLERRULER – 12/1 > 7/1 – WON 5/1F
1 – ASK BLOSSOMFORT – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 17/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – A PLUS TARD
SEAN – DEFI DU SEUIL
Just as Ron and Sean were building up a head of steam Ron's internet cut out as Openreach chose totally the wrong moment to do work on the local junction box!
However, you've all of their flat races discussed and just as Ron was about to tell you THOMAS DARBY was his 20/80....
This is Ron's text, with Sean's selections added, for all races discussed today PODCAST RACES
FRIDAY
NEWMARKET 2-30
13 Juveniles racing on autumn ground but this should be relatively easy to solve given recent trends….if they “stick”.
No benefit to be gained from looking at age or weight trends but two things can be worked with and they are market position, and what a horse did last time out.
Only two previous winners have been located outside the front four on the tissue and right now they would be: * DESERT DREAMER * BENEFIT * PENNINE HILLS * RED LACEWING
Six of the last 10 winners of this arrived having won, as did three of the last five and of that quartet I’d pluck BENEFIT, who arrives unbeaten after two runs, and RED LACEWING, as they are the only pair, in the front four on the tissue, having won last time out.
A dutch hopefully produces a profit but if I have to post up a 20/80, it’s BENEFIT. She is 1-1 on the ground….the only horse in here with winning form on it, and 2-2 at the trip
RON – BENEFIT 20/80
SEAN – DESERT DREAMER
SATURDAY
NEWMARKET 2-58
Yet another juvenile Listed event. I did mention last week that it’s that time of year and here, we have 14 going to post.
It’s also another were age and weight ranges are null and so I’ll just work as I did with the race tomorrow and look at market position and form coming into the race.
The last 11 winners could have been found in the front four in the market on seven of the 11 times this has been run but we did have a 20/1 Haggas debutante winning it in 2019.
Arriving having won last time out also seems to have the same importance as Friday’s race, five winners having that on their CV’s, including three of the last five.
Favourites also tend to run big races as they have won four and finished runner up on another four occasions.
Newmarket yards have had great success in recent years, four of those last five years being trained local.
I do not have a tissue right now but if I did, I’d be expecting to see WITH THE MOONLIGHT trading front four, she arrives having won her last two races, is Newmarket trained and at this point in time she is my selection.
RON - WITH THE MOONLIGHT
SEAN – WITH THE MOONLIGHT
NEWMARKET 3-33
The first race I have without a juvenile in sight and it’s down to five runners. Nearly £30k to the winner and trainers cannot be bothered supporting it. Bonkers.
I’ve no age group preference as we’ve seen four 3-y-o’s, four aged 5+ and two aged four winning this in the last decade. They all carry 9st or more so no trend there but if what has gone on in recent years holds up, the winner will be sat front two on the tissue and whilst this is an assumption, I imagine that pair will be BAY BRIDGE and MAJESTIC DAWN.
The interesting runner is MONTY, who comes over from France and is ultra-consistent, winning six and placing in five of his 17 careers starts to date.
I’m with BAY BRIDGE and would back him to finish his season unbeaten and give the younger horses their fifth win and third in succession, following on from LORD NORTH and FREYJA.
RON – BAY BRIDGE
SEAN – BAY BRIDGE
NEWMARKET 4-08
A HINT OF A CONUNDRUM.
Older horses, those aged five, six or seven have won six of the last 10 running’s, but horses aged three and four have won four of the last nine, including the last two.
Three year olds have an awful record so I’d be ruling out DANTE’S PASS, JADOOMI and STAR OF ORION and I’d rule out OH THIS IS US, SAFE VOYAGE and STORMY ANTARCTIC because they are over the hill as far as this race is concerned.
Eight of the last 10 winners were front two on the tissue and nine of them carried 9st or more so in essence I’m looking for a horse aged 4, 5 or 6, carrying 9st or more and trading front two on the tissue.
I’ve again no tissue to work with but expect ZANOUSKI to trade favourite and win. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, has saddled six for this, won with three, placed with two others. He has also won two of the last four running’s of the race.
I’d be in straight win
RON – ZANOUSKI
SEAN – DANTE’S PASS 20/80
WETHERBY 1-55
Horses aged 6+ are the way to go here. Four year olds won three years on the bounce between 2012 and 2014, but they have been firmly put back in their box ever since.
You need to be carrying 10st 12lb or more and they all do. You also need to be front three on the tissue as nothing in the last decade has won from outside that trio. Nothing has sprung a shock here.
The three to work with are: * MIRANDA * MOLLY OLLYS WISHES * MARIE’S ROCK
I’ll suggest, therefore, the winner’s name begins with an M
They are priced to dutch and make a small profit but if I were looking to go 20/80 on one, it would be MOLLY OLLYS WISHES. Dan Skelton has trained five for this in recent years, won with one, placed with two
I’ll run with the Skelton horse.
RON – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES
SEAN – ZAMBELLA 20/80
WETHERBY 2-30
The return of PAISLEY PARK and he has opened up favourite, although out a quarter of a point from his opening show.
Age trends are no use whatsoever as we’ve had everything from a five year old to an 11 year old winning this and definitely nothing dominant.
Weight ranges too are becoming a tad muddied with but I’m thinking I do not want anything carrying more than 11st which rules out Paisley Park.
Eight of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less and two of the last four winners were carting below 11st.
Market position tells me we do not want to be with a horse outside the front four on the tissue but as only two favourites have won, I’d again be putting PAISLEY PARK to one side.
That means I’m thinking one of: * THOMAS DARBY * MASTER TOMMYTUCKER * INDEFATIGABLE
Definitely priced to dutch for a profit if I’m right about PAISLEY PARK.
The last named won on the flat recently and comes here fighting fit, but he is 0-2 at the trip. The other pair have never even tried the trip.
MASTER TOMMYTUCKER is trained by Paul Nicholls and his record in this is amazing….entered seven, won with three, placed with three but this horse is a 10 year old and only one of that age has placed from the four that have tried. He opened 4/1 and has been easy to back, now around 11/2.
I’m going to suggest THOMAS DARBY as a sporting 20/80. He has won or placed in eight of his 11 runs over hurdles and his third to THYME HILL at Aintree in April was a cracking good run.
Not confident at this point in a season but I’ll have him 20/80
RON – THOMAS DARBY 20/80
SEAN – PAISLEY PARK
WETHERBY 3-05
If I was going to name a day that starts my season, other than Badger Day, it would be Charlie Hall Day.
Only seven going to post but I’m really looking forward to it.
CYRNAME is a very short priced favourite but anyone taking 6/5 about a horse that has more letters than numbers next to his name recently, is mad.
We know the horse is brilliant on his day, but how can you tell when it’s going to be his day? He won this race last year arriving with a letter next to his name so maybe 6/5 is gold dust?
Here’s a stat for you. Only three 6-y-o’s have tried to win this in the last 10 years….and all three won. The only 6-y-o in here on Saturday is FUSIL RAFFLES. The winning most age grouping is nine, with four of the last 10.
You need to be carrying between 11st and 11st 6lb as nine of the last 10 winners did that…and here on Saturday, they all do. Three of the last four winners all carried 11st 6lb.
You need to be front three on the tissue and with three of the last four winners all making seasonal debut, and the trends point t one of CYRNAME or CLONDAW CASTLE.
I simply cannot back CYRNAME, and despite being lbs better at the weights I’d have to go CLONDAW CASTLE 20/80
If CYRNAME turns up, he wins but that horse has a giant squiggle next to his name in my house.
RON – CLONDAW CASTLE 20/80
SEAN - CYRNAME
DOWN ROYAL 2-50
Everyone knows I love GALVIN but if he can beat MINELLA INDO off level weights, when essentially, he’s giving the Gold Cup winner 16lb, I’ll be stunned.
MINELLA INDO has won on debut in three of the four years he’s been racing under rules and if we take official ratings literally, FRODON should also beat GALVIN.
It’s a race I’ll watch rather than have a bet on but if GALVIN wins this, then I’m wrong about his targets later this season because I think he has Grand National written all over him.
RON – MINELLA INDO
SEAN – MINELLA INDO
DOWN ROYAL 3-25
Not a lot to say about this race really. If ENVOI ALLEN doesn’t pick these up and carry them, his season is over before it really begins. He’s officially 13lb better than the second favourite and it should be a quickfire De Bromhead/Blackmore double.
RON – ENVOI ALLEN
SEAN – ENVOI ALLEN
OMMS * EAST ASIA – 7/1 > 4/1 – WON 4/1 * ANOTHER BATT – 9/1 > 7/1 – WON 9/2JF * HOT CHESTNUT – 25/1 > 10/1 – WON (DH) 12/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – DOUBLE – BAY BRIDGE / ZANOUSKI
SEAN – DESERT DREAMER
For those hard of hearing Ron is now producing a transcript of what his thoughts were on each race discussed during the Podcast
FRIDAY
DUNDALK 7-15
Between 2011 and 2014 this was won by three 5 year olds with no winner bigger than 6/1 but since 2015 it’s been won by horses aged 8, 7, 10 and we even had a Dascombe trained juvenile winning it in 2019….subsequently ran 5th at the 2019 Breeders Cup.
Six of the last 10 running’s have gone to horses aged 4 or 5 and, interestingly, 5 of the last seven winners have been trained this side of the Irish Sea.
We’ve still only seen one winner priced bigger that 6/1 and so I’m thinking that I’m going to have a home based 4 or 5 year old onside, aged four or five, trading 6/1 or shorter.
The only horse coming close to qualifying is the 3-y-o DANDALLA and I’ll suggest a small 20/80.
The stats horse, without a doubt, is HARRY’S BAR….8-16 on that surface, 4-9 over the trip and 3-5 at the track. He must run a big race.
RON DANDALLA 20/80
SEAN - MAY SONIC
SATURDAY
NEWBURY 2-00
Juveniles running on heavy ground….all the punting appeal of betting on a coin toss. This will be the third consecutive year they have raced on heavy.
In the last 10 years we’ve had no winning favourite but seven of those 10 winners have gone off 2nd or 3rd favourite. Only one favourite has even placed in the first three, in the last seven years.
The last three winners had not raced more than three times before heading here and I’d say trends and early tissues suggest one of HOO YA MAL or LIGHT INFANTRY wins this. If I could ever bring myself to play flat racing in October, I’d dutch that pair.
NEWBURY 2-35
We had eight consecutive winners aged 3 and 4 between 2011 and 2018, with 3-y-o’s winning five.
On Saturday we have just one three year old taking part, SISKANY.
Eight of the last 10 winners were located in the front three on the tissue and right now they would be SISKANY, MAX VEGA and ILARAAB.
The market right now is suggesting SISKANY is a pretty strong favourite as they go 13/8 that one, then 13/2 bar.
I’m not sure I’d want to be taking that short a price about a horse that has never raced on heavy ground and in ILARAAB I see a horse with course winning form and distance winning form, trained by Haggas, who has sent four runners for this race, won with two, placed with one and I’m thinking 20/80 ILARAAB.
RON 20/80 ILARAAB
SEAN - SISKANY
NEWBURY 3-10
Shoot me now.
We have 12 juveniles, none of which has raced on heavy ground before, none having course winning form on their CV’s and none having won more than once over this trip. I’ll have nightmares tonight now.
Only five previous running’s, no tissue to look at and the last winner of this won on debut @ 18/1
That winner was trained by Roger Charlton who has saddled a total of six for this in the past, won with one, placed with another so I’m just going to put up JUMBLY as a 20/80.
Charlton has a 21% strike rate with 2-y-o’s at Newbury and a level stake profit of £30.37 to a £1 stake so I’ll suggest JUMBLY.
RON - JUMBLY
SEAN - JUMBLY
DONCASTER 3-15
Yet another juvenile race but being a Group 1, this should be a bit like shelling peas (although we did have a 12/1 winner last year).
Normally your looking for a lightly raced type….no more that three runs….in the front three on the tissue and, with six winning favourites, four trained by Aiden O’Brien, and his LUXEMBOURG looks like he’s the proverbial glove.
Currently clear favourite on the tissue @ 5/4, he is the lightest raced of the three topping the market, arrives unbeaten and I’m definitely tuned in to LUXEMBOURG….straight win.
RON - LUXEMBOURG
SEAN - NO BET
DONCASTER 3-50
And another juvenile race…. it’s that time of year.
This went to Ireland for the first time last year, when the exposed LIPIZZANER won @ 10/3.
Five of the last eight running’s of this race have gone to horses that were fancied…. that 10/3 winner the biggest of those five winners and all the stats do point to FLAMING RIB justifying favouritism this time around.
It’s currently around 12/1 bar one of the favourite or DEODAR winning this race but the latter has been drifting since this market opened 4/1 > 6/1….it’s FLAMING RIB for me I’m afraid.
RON - FLAMING RIB
SEAN - FLAMING RIB
CHELTENHAM 4-05
I FEEL LIKE SOMEONE HAS JUST GIVEN ME A BIG, WARM HUG!!
Ok, a proper look at this….Scribblings a plenty!
I want nothing younger than five, and nowt older than seven onside here. They have accounted for eight of the last 10 winners.
I’m thinking weight range between 10st 6lb and 11st 7lb and with regards market position I’ll say we do not want anything to do with the favourite, as only two have won this but, whilst we have seen winners priced 20/1, 16/1 and 12/1 the winner is usually in the front six on the tissue.
The qualifiers and the dutch are: * PANIC ATTACK * BUTLERS BRIEF
Given PANIC ATTACK is 0-2 ground and, more importantly, 0-2 at Cheltenham. I’ll say 20/80 BUTLER’S BRIEF, as he also fits the seasonal debutantes trend.
Three of the last four winners took this on seasonal debut and whilst his win in May constitutes this season, I’m going to say he’s been off long enough to qualify!
RON - 20/80 BUTLER’S BRIEF for me.
SEAN - E.W. PUSH THE TEMPO
OMMS
The best three OMM's produced in the last week were:
3 – RAFFERTY – 10/1 > 4/1 – WON 10/3F
2 – CLAYMORE – 25/1 > 8/1 – WON 13/2
1 – ONE FORTY SEVEN – 25/1 > 11/2 – WON 9/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEEKEND
RON - LUXEMBOURG in the Futurity at Doncaster – the 3-15pm race there.
SEAN - NOBLE TRUTH in the Horris Hill - Newbury 2-00
A full Podcast this weekend with everything from juveniles racing on the Dundalk all weather, to the Arc de Triomphe on Sunday, with plenty of sensible debate and a host of winners sele;lected...and if you believe that, you'll believe anything!
I'll post up our selections a little later for those hard of hearing!
The Post Racing Podcast returns after an absence of six years and, whilst you can clearly hear the nuts are rusty, as they warm up Ron and Sean start to get right into it.
This time next month we’ll see polished performances from them, with winners aplenty.
Today they offer up some thoughts on day one of what is going to be a weird season, the 2000Gns, the Ebor and provide you with one horse each, that you should follow this season.
Feel free to leave a comment but hey, be gentle, it’s two of the more seasoned of our population trying to impart some racing words of wisdom….could be they turn out to be more Norman Wisdom but, we tried!