RoozCast: Recent Episodes
Roozbeh Aliabadi
Roozbeh Aliabadi is an advisor and commentator on geopolitical risk and geoeconomics, particularly the Middle East and Asia. He is an advisory partner in the global advisory practice at GGA, a boutique international consultancy practice based in New York City.
The US and Iran go to war Today! ... on a football pitch. The two sides meet in their last first-round game of the Qatar World Cup, and whoever wins will almost certainly advance to the knockout stage — a first for Iran. But this time, the long-running geopolitical tensions between the two bitter enemies have taken a back seat to the ongoing women-led protests against the government in Iran, the biggest the country has seen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
If you tour Doha, the capital of Qatar, the men's football World Cup is all around. There's a FIFA installation every few meters, flags and soccer balls line the pavements, and the streets shine bright with Qatar 2022-branded lights. But none of this matters because Qatar hosts a big party for wealthy Arabs. Most have flown in from neighboring countries to experience a once-in-a-lifetime event. Dressed in team colors complete with face paint, drums, and other swag, the energy of the wealthy Arabs can perhaps outdo any Western country. Since money is no object, post-match celebrations go on well into the wee hours of the morning.
Saudi Arabia's incredible victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the greatest upsets in World Cup history. The game made the entire Kingdom proud — and sent long-awaited ripples of soccer joy throughout the Arab world.
Since it invaded Ukraine, Russia hasn't just been making enemies and losing friends. Some Central Asian countries – considered part of Russia's backyard thanks to their Soviet heritage – have begun distancing themselves from Moscow. Astana wants to diversify its trade and diplomacy. Still, the country's proximity to Russia – compounded by political, cultural, and economic ties – means Kazakhstan will struggle to escape Russia's sphere of influence entirely.
This Sunday- just two days from today - is the day half the world has eagerly awaited for four years. The men's football or soccer (for my American Audience) World Cup — the most-watched event of the most popular sport on the planet — kicks off in, of all places, Qatar. For one thing, it's not the first time a World Cup host has had a dodgy human rights record. After all, Argentina won its first trophy at home in 1978 while the country was run by a fearsome military junta. For another, the political stuff usually stops when the ball starts rolling. Once the game is underway, most fans' attention will switch quickly from human rights to the human magic expected from the feet of megastars like Leo Messi, Kylian Mbappé, or Neymar. (We'd mention Cristiano Ronaldo too, but he's in a bit of a slump these days.) The smart money seems to be on Argentina and Brazil, but there are plenty of underdogs — hello, Senegal — with a shot at going all the way.
Despite lowering the anticipated “Red Wave” to a mere trickle in the midterms last week, he’s running. Despite an upcoming Georgia Senate runoff that hangs in the balance, Mr. Trump is actually running. Trouble is brewing within the GOP itself. Trump might be too toxic to win a general election himself now, but without his voters, no Republican stands a chance in 2024. His presence threatens a crack in the republican party whereby a bunch of Republican voters who are needed to win in a general election take their ball and go home if Trump isn't the guy. So the problem the Republicans face is that they can't win with Trump and can't win without him.
Today, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping are having their first face-to-face meeting since Joe Biden was elected in 2020. Since they last met in 2011, when both were vice presidents, tensions between Washington and Beijing have only escalated. Stabilizing the world’s most important bilateral relationship is essential to China, the US, and the rest of the world. Checks and balances limit Biden's executive powers to deal with Xi’s China. The same can't be said for President Xi.
As we are closing the week, the big news is happening on the economic and political fronts around the world. The American economy got some good news yesterday: Monthly inflation in October dropped to 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September, and is now at its lowest since January 2022. The crypto market's really poor run got even worse this week after FTX, a major crypto exchange, imploded - big time.... added by billionaire crypto-star Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX was revealed to be in a bad financial position earlier this week, and Binance, the largest exchange, and an FTX competitor considered bailing FTX out, but dropped the idea at the eleventh hour when it became clear FTX was insolvent, and its customers couldn't withdraw assets. Last but not least, President Joe Biden, meanwhile, will be on-site in Bali for G20, where he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday for their first in-person chat since Biden moved into the White House. But don't expect significant results for the meeting.
The world is suffering from uncomfortably high inflation as economies adjust to the troubles brought by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and all other crazy stuff happening around the world, but several countries are dealing with double- or triple-digit price increases or inflation. In Argentina, for example, a rapid acceleration of price gains in recent months has many economists predicting inflation will reach 100% this year and next year.
Midterm elections are always a referendum on incumbency, as demonstrated by the fact that the party in control of the White House has lost Congressional seats in 36 out of 39 midterm races since the Civil War. It’s nearly impossible to satisfy voters – particularly those caught in a painful spiral of inflation and recession worries – by advocating for the status quo. That’s the challenge for Democrats: trying to defend their own track record while simultaneously recognizing what remains to be done. Economic turmoil has forever been a toxic agent that gives the underdog (Republicans in this Midterm) an abundance of ammunition to oust the incumbent party. If Democrats lose big on Tuesday, paving the way for a slate of GOP newcomers, it will be a significant gift to Donald Trump as he looks ready to announce a run for the White House in 2024.
Let's start the week with three questions.
Will US Voters show up on Tuesday?
Will wealthy countries compensate or pay poor ones for climate change?
What is going on with Elon Musk and Twitter?
Most Americans already have firm views of the Republican and Democratic parties, and their midterm votes have been set in stone for some time. In close races, however, the difference will be decided by whether the politically indifferent demographic chooses to vote.
On COP27, rising inflation has forced governments to cut back on fossil fuels, making the International Energy Agency optimistic that COP27 might be a "turning point" in the global transition to clean energy.
And there is a possibility that Elon Musk might have a shorter tenure than former British PM Liz Truss. Also, for Russia, buying a few thousand verified Twitter accounts at $8/pop to promote disinformation feels like a no-brainer."
Pakistan's former PM Imran Khan — aka "Kaptaan" for his cricket awards and lead-from-the-front style of populist politics — survived an assassination attempt on Thursday during his "Long March" to Islamabad. Mr. Khan, who was removed from office last April, has been demanding snap elections, but he's been ignored so far. Despite his party-sweeping by-elections, mass rallies, and his summoning of exceptional support against the military, the political establishment hasn't blinked. Will this attack force their hand? On another topic, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made a very controversial trip to Beijing on Friday as the first prominent European leader to visit China since Russia invaded Ukraine. It was a swift one – Scholz's team didn't even spend the night in Beijing due to China's zero-COVID policy. For the leader of the EU's largest economy (that's Germany), the trip is all about business (people), which explains why top German CEOs accompanied Mr. Scholz. But for the rest of Europe, going to Beijing right after Xi Jinping's coronation at the 20th Congress of China's ruling Communist Party sends the wrong political message right when Brussels wants to reduce its economic and trade dependence on China — like it's done with Russian fossil fuels over Ukraine.
Last but not least, In the final stretch of the midterm race, Democrats and Republicans are pushing hard in Pennsylvania. On the blue side, President Joe Biden and his old boss Barack Obama will hold an event in Philadelphia on Saturday (Today) to get out the vote due to fears that turnout could lag, particularly among communities of color. Meanwhile, on team red, former President Donald Trump will also stop in southwest Pennsylvania over the weekend to campaign for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz and state Senator Doug Mastriano, trailing Democrat Josh Shapiro in the race for governor.
American voters are getting ready for the mid-term elections. President Biden blamed former President Donald Trump's "big lie" about the 2020 election being stolen and called out the violent attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul. In response to the speech, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tweeted that the President was "desperate to change the subject from inflation, crime, and open borders." We'll find out exactly what Americans think after next Tuesday. In recent years views on court bias and whether it plays an outsized role in politics reached fever-pitch for many this summer with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a move disapproved by 57% of Americans. While Republicans seem to have understood these dynamics for some time, Democrats have caught up with the trend in recent years. In the 2019-2020 election cycle, a collective $97million was spent on state court races nationwide. This cycle, parties are investing heavily in partisan judicial races in Ohio, Illinois, and North Carolina. With an increased number of election deniers on Republican ballots, debates over the nature of American democracy will gain steam over the next few years – and those battles will be waged in state courts. Prepare to see a lot more money enter state judicial races. So buckle up!
Bad news in Asia. China’s manufacturing sector is in a tailspin this week after several enormous production lines were shut down due to the country’s restrictive zero-COVID policy. North Korea released its largest-ever, one-day flurry of missiles on Wednesday, firing 23 ballistics into the sea. Why? Supreme leader Kim Jong Un detests being forgotten. To get attention! Some good news in Europe and Africa. Russia has (again) reversed itself on a deal allowing Ukrainian food exports to cross the Black Sea toward international markets, this time by reaffirming its support for safe passage. The government of Ethiopia and rebels from the Tigray region agreed on Wednesday to “permanently” end their civil war.
We are Back!
In this episode of RoozCast, we will examine the recent lunch date between Venezuela and Columbia. We then move to Israel to see what Bibi Netanyahu is doing, and he is getting closer to political victory. We then move to another tense spot, Saudi Arabia, which is being threatened by Iran. Last but not least, we moved to Brazil, where the country held its presidential election, and Mr. Balsenaro had some hard choices.
In this episode, I discuss how India is dealing with the second-highest confirmed COVID cases in the world. India is competing with China in its vaccine diplomacy and struggling to protect a sizable portion of its 1.4 billion population.
Could China succeed where other outsiders (British, Russian, and American) have lost – and without a costly and dangerous military occupation? Is the hope of profitable trade and investment enough to guarantee a power-sharing deal among Afghanistan's fighting factions? Over the years, China's rulers have seen other major powers stuck in Afghanistan without an exit strategy. Those are mistakes no one in Beijing is keen to repeat.
The most ambitious global immunization drive in history is in action. Over the past three months, more than 250 million COVID shots have been administered in over 100 countries, and the vaccination rate is gradually increasing. At the current rate, around 6.3 million doses are being administered daily. It's a rare moment of good news after over a year of collective suffering, grief, despair, and anxiety. So where do things stand, and what's preventing the world from getting to herd immunity sooner?
It's not just about that vacation you've been dreaming of since the pandemic shut down travel. Many organizations, institutions, and employers could begin requiring proof of vaccination before they hire you — or even to let you in the office for an interview. Are vaccine passports a good idea? People, governments, and businesses need to know who might set off a new COVID wave and who is safe. But are we moving toward a New World where the holders of vaccine passports become an unjustly privileged class of people?
Donal Trump continues to be a powerful political force. Even in defeat, he won 74 million votes for president last year, the second-highest total of any candidate in US history. In this episode, I discuss the future of the GOP. What does this mean for the party? The GOP has plunged into an all-out civil war that will rage for years to come.
The US president's priorities may be COVID, economic recovery, climate change, and China, but the Middle East problems are still following him — and the US is deeply involved in the region, whether President Biden likes it or not. In this episode, I discuss Biden's priorities in the Middle East.
Lots of news coming out of Russia these days... But just who is Alexei Navalny, and how important is the threat that he may pose to Vladimir Putin's power in Russia? In this episode of RoozCast I discuss the story of Alexei Navalny in Today's Russia.
What should Europe do with Washington and Beijing? Double down on strengthening traditional transatlantic relations in hopes of containing China's growing power to set new trade and technology rules, and to bolster support for "Western values" of human rights and individual liberty Engage both newly dysfunctional Washington and ever-more-assertive Beijing? Strengthen Europe's strategic independence from the US and China? In this episode of RoozCast, I discuss Europe's big political decision.
The United States has vaccinated approximately 3% of its total population, while the UK is nearing a solid 5 percent vaccination rate. In Israel, which has been recognized as a vaccine success story, almost 24% of people have already received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine. But while many countries are able to glimpse the outlines of a post-COVID world, there is a huge group of people who are being left out entirely. Refugees, as well as displaced, undocumented, and stateless people around the world, remain unavailable for vaccinations.
In this episode, I look at several case studies where powerless populations are being left with no vaccination or support.
In this episode, I discuss Bolivia's election and the challenges faced by newly elected president Luis Arce in governing all Bolivians in a country deeply polarized along political, economic, and racial lines.
In this episode, I discuss Donald Trump's "America First" foreign policy in the context of trade, conflicts, and international treaties. Has the president delivered?
In this episode, I discuss the central question of international trade and Biden's strategy. I explain how Joe Biden won't move to lower the Trump tariffs immediately or without some concession from Beijing. Escalation of the trade war seems unlikely as Biden attempts to put the frequently combative US-China relationship on a more useful path.
In this episode, I discuss how the US and China are moving into an increasingly zero-sum competition over technologies like 5G and artificial intelligence, in which the big tech companies are major players. If this turns into a 21st-century tech cold war in which tech companies on either side of the Pacific are the main combatants, US companies will be facing off against Chinese rivals (like, Alibaba and Huawei that have the solid support of the Chinese government, and face few antitrust limitations of their own.
In this episode I discuss, A new survey from the Pew Research Center offering interesting responses to this newest phase of China's rise. This report is based on interviews conducted in nine European countries plus the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
In this episode, I look at the heated dispute between Greece and Turkey over who controls what water in the Eastern Mediterranea. I also discuss what have Greeks and Turks been arguing about all summer and why it matters.
In this episode, I look at the state of German reunification thirty years later. The reunification has - to a large extend - been difficult to pull off. The Economic and quality of life gap is shrinking, but lingering inequality continues to impact both German society and its politics.
In this episode, I look at Trump's highest-profile fans - in ideological support or specific policies and who won't be happy if he loses in November.
In this episode, I will be looking at why the US Senate race matters. The 100 member body is currently held by the Republican Party but many individual Senate races are wide open. The results will have a profound impact on only on America but also on US foreign policy and other major issues with global impact. I will look at just a few areas such as immigration, trade, arms deals, and climate change.
In this episode, we'll be taking a closer look at AI and Regulations or I better be saying "regulating AI".
The drumbeat for regulating artificial intelligence (AI) is growing louder Not just in the United States and Europe but also elsewhere around the world. Earlier this month, Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google's parent company, Alphabet, became the latest super high-profile Silicon Valley figure to call for governments to put guardrails around technologies that use huge amounts of (oftentimes personal) data to teach computers how to identify faces, make decisions about mortgage applications, and so many other tasks that previously relied on us - yes! human brainpower.
A potentially deadly new coronavirus that can be transmitted from one person to another is now spreading across China. This new deadly virus is big news and very very serious. Complicating containment efforts, millions of people are on the move across the country this week to celebrate the Chinese New Year with family and friends, adding to more fears about the spreading of the virus. But this is not just a Chinese problem.
Almost two years after Donald Trump began its trade war against China, President Trump and Chinese Vice-Premier signed a deal in Washington. The full details are still not clear, but in this episode, I discuss the so-called "Phase One" deal between the world's two most influential economies is expected to include, despite inevitable disagreements between the US and China about how the deal should be implemented and enforced,
In this episode, I review the most important events in the region and discuss the role of China and Russia in the region in 2020.
In this episode, I discuss the recent EU report about the “lost generation”. And how the report waruns of a potential “lost generation” of migrants, people who enter Europe to build better lives but then find little chance of integrating into society.
The destiny of Donald Trump will likely remain in the hands of American voters, not their elected officials. And the result of the next election is still more likely to be defined by the Democrats' choice of a presidential candidate, the state of the US economy in 2020, and the enthusiasm that each side's voters feel about the election than by anything now happening in congressional hearing rooms.
The world has changed since the fall of the Berlin Wall. It's a world that is much more wealthy and free than it was before the wall fell, but it's also a world where nationalism is growing, a new global competition is emerging between the US and China, and freedom is frailer than we thought thirty years ago.
Latin America's longest-serving president is now out and seeking asylum in Mexico. Bolivia's passionate leftwing President Evo Morales quit, after weeks of frequently intense protests over his plausible bid to rig last month's presidential elections.
In this episode, I discuss Google's Quantum Computing breakthrough and what it means for the future of geopolitics.
All over the world, people are hitting the streets to demand changes from their governments. But one region where dissatisfaction with current leaders seems particularly widespread at the moment is Latin America.
It's just over 12 months until the US presidential election. November of 2020. Yes, Mr. Trump has been the president of the United States and the Commander of Chief for almost three years. So, how are we feeling? Well, maybe just a bit on edge? Good, because against a tense geopolitical backdrop, and with an impeachment drama playing out in the House of Representatives - as we are recording this podcasts, a series of recent headlines have left me - as of again, recording of this podcast, concerned that we could be heading for a perfect storm…of election interference and other cyber troubles.
In this episode, we'll be talking about President Trump's letter to President Erdogan. An extremely strange, unique, disturbing, funny letter of warning about the consequences of continuing Turkey's invasion of Syria.
In this episode we look at how Syria is quickly turning into US President Donald Trump's most important foreign policy mistake to date and we are almost three years into his presidency and a year away from the presidential election. It's looking like it might be for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, too. Yes, a big foreign policy error.
This week Chinese President Xi Jinping oversaw a huge celebration of that moment - PRC's 70th birthday, highlighting tens of thousands of performers and troops, hundreds of tanks, planes and other military vehicles and even, it seems, a new nuclear weapon that can reach any place on the planet. China is a country that rose from poverty, war, and external subjugation to become the world's second-largest economy, a leading force in science and technology, and a strong contender for 21st century superpower status - mostly likely getting ahead of the US.
I was a very busy week in Washington. What happened? The impeachment of President Trump has now begun. Investigators will now try to determine whether Mr. Trump attempted to pressure Ukraine's president into providing damaging information on former US vice president (and current presidential candidate) Joe Biden and his son Hunter in order to help Trump win the 2020 election.
In this episode, I discuss the growing friction between governments and big tech companies on the issue of digital currency.
Trump's firing his national security advisor John Bolton is big news in Washington. What does it really mean for US Foreign Policy and Donald Trump's election campaign for November of 2020?
Following Trump's last-minute decision to leave Afghanistan peace talks between the US and the Taliban at Camp David, the country's political future is more hopeless than ever. The US-backed government in Kabul controls less than half of the country. The rest are controlled or actively attacked by Taliban fighters or warlords that are gaining more power.
Facial Recognition is being used by governments and companies around the world. And people are freaking out! What is happening and where we are headed?
Welcome to the first episode of Season 9 of RoozCast.
In this episode let's look at what Boris Johnson has done to suspend British Parliament in Sept and October. What does this mean for Britain and EU?
Three small numbers are making big waves in China. The digits 9-9-6, a shorthand for 9am to 9pm, six days a week, have become a rallying cry for tech workers disappointed and frustrated with their bruising work schedules. In recent weeks, what began as a discussion among a few programmers has morphed into a broader debate about working conditions in China's most important industry.
When it comes to artificial intelligence there's good news and bad news. On the plus side, AI could save millions of lives a year by putting robots behind the wheels of cars or helping scientists discover new medicines. On the other hand, it could put us under surveillance, because a computer thinks our recent behavior patterns suggest we might be about to commit a crime.
How do you hold an election with 900 million voters? India's about to do just that starting tomorrow, with the opening of its 2019 national election.
In a vote that could change the internet as we know it, the European Parliament yesterday approved a sweeping reform of the EU's digital copyright policy. The law would make big websites liable when their users post copyrighted material without permission.
After 22 months, 34 indictments, and half a billion articles about Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller's III's investigation into possible Trump campaign collusion with Russia, the headline judgment came down to just four pages this past Sunday afternoon.
Elizabeth Warren is ready to take on Silicon Valley. The Democratic Senator from Massachusetts, a 2020 presidential contender, says companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook are so powerful that they hurt small businesses and choke innovation. Her solution: break them up the old fashion way. Given the growing backlash against Silicon Valley, her idea is likely to get a lot of attention.
The Space Force is really happening. President Trump recently signed a directive building a new US Air Force unit dedicated to space defense. It's not quite the independent, sixth military branch Trump once promoted, but its creation shows just how much the competition to dominate space is heating up.
The US and China may be on the verge of resolving – or at least cooling – a heavyweight trade dispute that's already seen them slap tariffs on $360 billion worth of each other's goods. If all goes according to plan, a deal will be in place ahead of a summit later this month between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. As the dust begins to settle between the US and China, the Trump administration's appetite for trade fights is as strong as ever.
There's growing optimism that the US and China will soon wrap up a deal to end their $360 billion trade and tariffs drama. But even if China agrees to buy more US petroleum and soybeans or ease demands that foreign companies hand over intellectual property, President Trump's negotiators are unlikely to get Beijing to change on a more fundamental issue: the state's heavy hand in directing the economy and the advantages it gives many Chinese companies. Which is nothing new.
Tomorrow, emergency supplies of food and medicine are expected to arrive in Venezuela by land and sea. Venezuela’s military, still loyal to President Nicolas Maduro, promises to stop the aid from entering. In a time of national crisis, the credibility of both the government and the opposition is now justly on the line.
Speaking of American-European disagreements, I've talked previously about the US pushback against Huawei, I would argue the world’s most geopolitically significant technology company. The Trump administration has been trying to persuade the European to ban the Chinese tech giant (Huawei) from their next-generation 5G information networks, citing national security risks. In fact just last week, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo even warned of consequences for countries that don’t follow Washington’s line on the issue.
It seems that Mr. Putin wants to remove the internet. Well, sort of, kind of at least. Russia is taking steps that would allow the government to unplug the country from the world wide web and fall back on its own, internal Russian network. It also appears that a Russian agency plans to perform tests on a prototype of the “RosNet”.
President Trump signed and announced an executive order requiring the US government to come up with a strategy and plan to improve America’s edge in artificial intelligence. Well, at least for now, It’s the closest Washington has come to set out a national strategy for AI since Mr. Trump took office, and comes almost two years after China's leaders revealed their ambitious plan to turn China into the world leader in AI by 2030.
It’s been a serious few days in the US-China lets call it - tech cold war. The confrontation between the world’s single superpower (the US) and its biggest geopolitical rival (China) is still more economic and technological than ideological or military, but I believe it’s shifting pretty fast. Let's have a quick review.
As technology continues to evolve, and governments, citizens, and corporations respond to the political disruption that it creates, the question might not be so much the relative strength of democracy vs authoritarianism as what new systems of governance emerge to take their place.
Nicolas Maduro has utilized many tactics to stay in power. He’s introduced methods to try to avoid economic breakdown and collapse, he actually blamed product shortages and growing opposition on foreigners, borrowed billions from China and Russia, ordered crackdowns on protests, arrested critics, dismissed international journalists, stacked the judicial system and courts with friends cronies, stripped opposition-controlled legislatures of power, and rigged elections while firmly denying the country is in crisis.
In 2018 - last year, the growing overlap between geopolitics and technology became evident in two big narratives: first, a new Cold War-style confrontation between the US and China over the future of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and the second is a broad backlash against the growing power of digital technology firms and companies.
In 2018, the disruptive style of President Donald Trump continued to drive politics in the United States, while a long-running economic expansion started to show signs of weakness. In this episode, we will look at the most significant political story of 2018 in the United States. I will also talk about what I consider big political development to watch out for in 2019 and more importantly, we look at the why.
Earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered a speech to celebrate an economic experiment that drove one of the most staggering stories of economic growth in human history.
Future of China and US Relations? Just watch Huawei Trade negotiations between the US and China took another step forward yesterday, with the Chinese taking steps to lower tariffs on US automobiles. The move further eases tensions after Presidents Trump and Xi declared a “trade truce” in Buenos Aires earlier this month.
In the background, though, a diplomatic and legal spat is unfolding that could prove far more consequential for the future of trade talks, and potentially the broader US-China relationship.
Even as President Trump and President Xi were negotiating to temporarily freeze tariff hikes last weekend in Buenos Aires Argentina on the sideline of G20 Summit, Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei, in connection with an ongoing US Justice Department investigation into the Chinese networking equipment giant.
his week, diplomats from around the world have gathered in Poland to put the 2015 Paris climate accord into practice. The pact, which doesn’t come into force until 2020, is based on the voluntary commitments of over 190 countries to cut their emissions.
Earlier this week, the French government suspended a proposed hike in carbon taxes among an increasing wave of protests and violence across the country. The about-face is a major defeat for President Macron, who took power over a year ago on the promise to take on France ’s political and economic institutions.
Their first date; I'm talking about Xi Jinping of China and Donald Trump of the US, they met at Mar-A-Lago, Donald Trump’s famous Florida resort and golf course. If you remember, the main news from that first meeting of Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in March 2017 came from Trump’s dinnertime launch of Tomahawk missiles at Syria’s military to punish Bashar Asad's use of chemical weapons.
This weekend, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires - Argentina. They’ll talk- of course - tariffs, fight over soybeans, and maybe even make a “deal” to ease a trade spat that’s seen the imposition of disciplinary tariffs on over $360 billion worth of goods so far.
Over the weekend - as we celebrated Thanksgiving Holiday in the United States and of course Black Friday, Russian naval forces captured and detained number Ukrainian ships after firing on them in the Kerch Strait, which is a narrow bit of disputed waters linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov on the Russo-Ukrainian border. Ok, This is a major escalation between the two countries, who have been locked in an armed conflict for almost four years and since 2014.
It is Thanksgiving time in the US and it is one of my favorite holidays. It involves family and lots of food. So let's get to it. After the Turkey’s done, it’s a Thanksgiving tradition for two people at the dinner table to grab hold of the y-shaped “wishbone” of the Turkey, silently make wishes, and then pull it apart – whoever gets the bigger piece of bone gets what they want. Here are three groups of politicals leaders who’d make nice opposing pairs when it’s time to make a wish…
A delicate and for lack of a better term - really fragile peace within the British governing Conservative Party has been totally destroyed in the past 48 hours, with the future of Brexit negotiations and Theresa May’s government in the balance. To put kind of politely, the prime minister’s Brexit plan was never going to be an easy sell, at least not politically and not given the current environment.
After a series of tough electoral setbacks, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced yesterday that she will not seek another term as the head of her governing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. Merkel has led the party for almost two decades and governed Germany for over a decade.
Like many US presidents before him, President Donald Trump suffered a significant electoral setback in the midterm elections this past Tuesday. The Democrats won the popular vote by more than 7 percentage points, and their new majority in the House of Representatives will give them - of course - real political power for the first time in two years.
Earlier this week, the US officially reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy and shipping sectors as a part of Trump’s “maximal pressure” campaign against the government in Tehran. The White House granted temporary or provisional waivers to eight friendly countries that import large amounts of Iranian crude oil.
On Tuesday, Nov 6th, 2018 - which is yesterday as of recording this episode, Americans turned out in crowds to vote in midterm elections, returning control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats for the first time since 2010 and leaving Republicans with a slim majority in the Senate. The vote was broadly seen as a referendum on President Trump’s first two years in the Whitehouse.
Today, a deeply divided America votes in midterm elections for Congress, governors, and state and local legislatures. Between a level of extreme polarization not seen in decades, the vote is in many ways a referendum on President Trump’s unique and unconventional presidential style, his “America First” agenda, and his bid to take the Republican Party in a radically more nationalistic direction.
There are interesting signals from Riyadh this past week that some of Saudi Arabia’s most powerful men are feeling the heat. Less than a week ago, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz boarded a plane in London, and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman was there to meet him when he landed in Riyadh. This is a big big deal, let me tell you why.
Throughout Brazilian president-elect, Jair Bolsonaro’s rise to power, his controversial and questionable views on domestic issues have been front and center. But as the right-wing populist prepares to take office early next year, it’s also worth considering how he may attempt to change Brazil’s foreign policy and global role.
It happens in every democracy - I'm talking about Elections. Usually, just before elections, political leaders and their supporters make wild and crazy promises and wacky allegations in a last-bid attempt to turn the vote’s result. In the United States, this is called “Election Season.” and we have one on Nov 6th, 2018.
As widely predicted, Brazil’s far-right firebrand Jair Bolsonaro won the country’s presidential runoff in a landslide this past Sunday. His dramatic and unlikely rise to power has invited comparisons to US President Donald Trump, whom he openly admires and praises.
Speaking of populism, here are three new stories from Italy, a country at the center of many European controversies. One centers on domestic policy, the second on disputes with the populists next door, and the third on a coming showdown with the European Union
It has been a crazy week in global geopolitics, however, let's shift our attention back to Brazil where voters in the country will elect Jair Bolsonaro president on Sunday. Media attention will focus on his charm, impressive style, and an apparent ideological bond with, if not duplicate of, Donald Trump.
Afghans head to the polls today for long-delayed elections in which over 2,500 candidates are contending for 249 seats in the Afghanistan parliament, the country is struggling with a range of challenges – I'll try to break them down for you.
As of the release of this episode, Saudi Arabia was reportedly preparing to release a report that confirms the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Istanbul consulate about two weeks ago. What's the twist? It was an accident, Saudis claim, which happened during an “unauthorized” attempt to interrogate and repatriate - I should say kidnap - Mr. Khashoggi, who was living in exile as a critic of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - also known as MBS.
The past few months have been brutal for French President Emmanuel Macron. Let's take a look at the list, Staff scandals, high-profile cabinet departures, and a recent selfie-fail in the Caribbean have all combined together to push his approval rating down from a post-election high of 65 percent to just 29 percent today. French Political Opposition parties already smell blood. In a bid to set things right, Mr. Macron is expected to reshuffle his cabinet this week. Macron hopes that by bringing in some fresh faces he can stop the slide and boost his chances of pulling off a new round of critical and difficult economic reforms.
It’s not every day that a company leaves $10 billion of lucrative and potential government business on the table. But that’s what Google just did this week when it announced that it no longer plans to compete for a massive Pentagon (I'm talking about US Department of Defence) cloud computing contract ahead of a Friday - Today - bid deadline.
Italy and the EU are on a crash course. After suddenly and frankly surprisingly sweeping to power in elections earlier this year, Rome’s populist-led coalition government has committed to drastically expand government spending in 2019, in part to deliver on frankly outsized promises made during the campaign.
We had a busy weekend and as expected, Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. Haddad have advanced to the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, which will be held on October 28 almost a week from now.
In recent weeks and months, an increasingly energetic debate about online privacy has taken hold in a very unexpected place - China, yes China. We are talking, the same China that has huge aspirations for a so-called a “social credit system” that would reward and discipline Chinese citizens based on what their online and offline behavior tells the government about their - if you will - civic values.
If you like drama - I'm talking about political drama, well last week you had the Supreme Court nomination in the United States but this weekend, you’ve got to love politics in Brazil, by the way, it the world’s fourth-largest democracy. One of the country’s two most popular politicians is in prison, and the other is recovering from a knife attack. This weekend, Brazil ’s voters will finally head to the polls.
People at Pew have just released their annual Global Attitudes Survey. Ok for starters let me tell you what Pew is...- The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan American fact tank based in Washington, D.C. It provides information on social issues, public opinion, and demographic trends shaping the United States and frankly the rest of the world. Ok The annual Global Attitudes Survey which polls members of the public in 25 countries with questions about who runs the world, who should run the world, what they think of the US vs China, and so on. The full report is worth your time So I recommend looking at it.
This Friday morning, somebody is going to win the Nobel Peace Prize - that is a BIG DEAL... , and if you’re the betting type - for your information, I am the betting type, chances are you think that somebody is South Korean President Moon , perhaps along with his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un. Ok.... hold your horses... Donald Trump is also considered a favorite – even President Moon of South Korea has said the US President - Donald Trump - really deserves the award for helping kick-start the process that has led to a fragile de-escalation along South and North Korean border - the 28th parallel.
Let's talk trade again. NAFTA is dead people...., long live… USMCA.. Yes USMCA... you heard me right, let me try again USMCA. On Sunday evening, Canada agreed at the 11th hour to join - if you will - an updated version of NAFTA with the United States and Mexico, now called the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). it will take me a while to memorize it.... The three countries will move from a deal that Donal Trump has called “the single worst trade deal” the United States has ever done to one he says is “the most important trade deal we’ve ever made so far.” Holy smoke... I am Roozbeh Aliabadi. Join me as I'll be looking at Trade but this time in the American Continent.
Sometimes one big story or narrative in a given part of the world can turn public attention from other, frankly comparable conditions that are happening there at the same time. In this episode, I will do a quick run through a few stories that aren’t actually the stories we have heard most about...
This week in New York City - putting aside UN Drama by the one an only Donald Trump, senior US, EU, and Japanese trade officials met to discuss a joint strategy to go after a common dilemma: China. YES, China... These diplomats, particularly question and frankly oppose China’s policies of giving gigantic subsidies to its own companies - known as SOE, while also forcing foreign firms to share technology as the price of access and entry to the massive and lucrative Chinese market.
Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google recently said: “I think the most likely scenario now is not a splitting, but rather a dividing into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet led by the United States.” What would that mean for us? Do we need to pick? If Eric Schmidt is correct, and the split becomes permanent, other countries would face a politically charged decision about whose system to choose - The Chinese Internet or the American Internet. I think the decision will have huge ramifications for all us that are using the world wild web, constantly.
Let's talk about UN Drama. US President Donald Trump blasted Iran in his General Assembly opening speech, calling on other countries to join his administration in further isolating Iran. The gameplan for Trump and his national security team, as I have talked about in previous episodes, is to force Tehran to agree to a more rigid version of the 2015 Nuclear Deal that the US, alone among its seven signatories - Russia, China, UK, France, Germany - walked out on earlier this year.
Trump says he’s open to meeting Rouhani on the sidelines of the UNGA, in what would be the first-ever meeting of presidents of the United States and the Islamic Republic. Hard to see it happening – for one thing, Iran’s Supreme leader back in August rejected the possibility of a meeting. For another, the blood is as bad as ever, with Tehran suggesting that the US was responsible for a terrorist attack on a memorial parade in Ahwaz over the weekend.
As a Middle Easter, I really have a problem with the work culture in the entire region, be it in Iran, UAE, Kuwait, Suadi Arabia or elsewhere. Just imagine if you are the future king of Saudi Arabia for example. You really have serious problems to address.
This week, the US-China trade war escalated dramatically. The Trump administration announced 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese exports, which will jump to 25 percent in January unless China offers concessions. China countered with tariffs ranging from 5-10 percent on $60 billion in US products that may likewise rise to 25 percent. President Trump then shot back with a threat of tariffs on yet another $267 billion in Chinese exports.
as Syria’s horrific civil war grinds towards its conclusion, the country will remain a battleground of competing geopolitical interests, with Russia, Iran, Turkey, the US, Israel, the Syrian government, the Kurds, and foreign-backed jihadists all maneuvering for position ahead of any type of peace settlement.
No surprise, President Trump on Monday actually followed through on his threat to impose tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese exports to the US. Here is how it works. A 10 percent tax will go into effect immediately, increasing to 25 percent on 1 January 2019. China, undeterred by Trump’s willingness to up the ante, has already pledged to retaliate, and they have done so in the past and they won't be shy this time. Remember that negotiated compromise to end the US-China trade war. Well, it looks pretty much dead.
If you remember correctly almost 10 years ago this time, Lehman Brothers, the financial services giant, collapsed BIG TIME. It was a pivotal moment in what became the most severe global financial crisis since the 1930s depression. US banks wobbled. European markets shivered. Growth slowed in Asia. Furthermore, if you remember China’s slowing demand for oil, gas, various metals, and minerals hit emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.
Several days ago President Trump went on Twitter to explain that if Apple wants to avoid the new tariffs he is preparing on billions of dollars of Chinese consumer goods, Apple should make its products in the US instead of China. “Start building new plants now,”. Welcome to a new chapter of US-China Trade War.
Last winter, Xi Jinping was doing very well. Perhaps more powerful than any Chinese leader since Mao, he was also feeling good about China’s handle on North Korea and ready to stand toe to toe with Trump on trade.
In Sweden’s nationwide elections over the weekend, the anti-EU, anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats maintained their political rise, while the main center-left and center-right blocs have suffered big time. I have three quick thoughts on what this election says about the shifting political winds in the broader Europe.
This may be the final major battle of Syria’s seven-year civil war. In defiance of warnings from the US and Turkish governments, Syrian government forces, with Russian military support, look poised to begin an assault on Idlib province, the last rebel-controlled area in the country. There are tens of thousands of rebel and jihadist fighters in Idlib. Three million civilians, half of them refugees from other regions, are trapped in harm’s way.