Investec India: Recent Episodes
Investec
As of March 2024, the Gross loan portfolio of Micro Finance industry has grown to Rs 4.42 lakh crore, up 26.8% over the previous year. Though active loans have grown 14% YoY, the Average ticket size has also increased by 12% YoY. While the industry witnessed best of asset quality trends in the last 2 years, Q1'FY25 saw some concerns over AQ led by elections, heatwave and overleverage. MFIN (Industry and Self regulatory association) has also issued guidelines to limit the micro-indebtedness for every borrower up to Rs 2 lakh with a maximum of 4 lenders.
To answer all of this, and any other questions you might have, Investec India is pleased to host the virtual MFI Expert Series. Read Nidhesh Jain's Report - India NBFC: MFI stress to increase in Q2
Aishwary Khandelwal, Associate Director, and Amit Rane, Sr Analyst, India Ratings & Research discussed the Rising Stress in MFI
As of March 2024, the Gross loan portfolio of Micro Finance industry has grown to Rs 4.42 lakh crore, up 26.8% over the previous year. Though active loans have grown 14% YoY, the Average ticket size has also increased by 12% YoY. While the industry witnessed best of asset quality trends in the last 2 years, Q1'FY25 saw some concerns over AQ led by elections, heatwave and overleverage. MFIN (Industry and Self-regulatory association) has also issued guidelines to limit the micro-indebtedness for every borrower up to Rs 2 lakh with a maximum of 4 lenders.
To answer all of this, and any other questions you might have, Investec India is pleased to host the virtual MFI Expert Series.
Last week saw continued turmoil in financial markets, culminating in the Bank of England acting with an (up to) £65bn emergency intervention, in an attempt to calm domestic markets and restore financial stability. This was in response to the reaction in longer-dated gilt markets – particularly at the 30-year maturity – to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-Budget.
The biggest tax-cutting spree in 50 years, to be funded by extra borrowing, the mini-Budget been questioned considering the backdrop of spiralling inflation, and markets have let their feelings be known. 30-year gilt yields surpassed 5% early yesterday morning, the highest since 2002.
As such the Bank of England stepped in, which seemed to have the desired effect, pushing down gilt yields at the long end of the curve. 30-year gilt yields have fallen to 3.93%, an intra-day swing of well over 100 basis points.
The quantitative easing has had the desired effect, but it only buys time to deal with liquidity issues. We question what will happen come 14 October, when the Bank of England has said this bond-buying spree will end.
We hosted Mr Philip Shaw, Chief Economist & Mr Sri Karthik, Banking Analyst, Investec India to understand what to expect next in the global financial markets and its impact on India with
We hosted Andrew Schultz from our South Africa office yesterday for an on the ground perspective on the Nigerian economy. Andrew expects the near term to remain volatile (dollar crunch, inflation spike) until the general elections (to be held in Feb’23). This shouldn’t hurt demand though, as revenues of FMCG companies reveal resilient demand momentum, and improvement in dollar availability can spur an uptick in demand for imported products (like 2Wers). Long term, implementation of structural reforms such as setting up of oil refineries, increase in finance penetration are important for the Nigerian economy. For 2Wer stocks under our coverage as highlighted in our earlier note (Exports facing speed bump) near-term volumes could be under pressure, but the long-term growth story remains intact.
Industrial de-carbonisation: technologies & viability - Dr Deepak Yadav, Programme Associate, CEEW
A dive into Hydrogen Economics & Applications - Mr Joachim von Scheele, Global Director Commercialization
India Decarbonisation -- Opportunities, Challenge's & Policy reforms - Mr Tirtha Biswas,Policy Advocacy and Strategic Partnerships, Ohmium
Investec India ESG 2.0 Conclave - Carbon Clean’s product offerings & underlying economics - Mr. Asam Rafi, VP of Sales
Investec ESG 2.0 Conclave: “Way forward for India: Carbon and/or Hydrogen, based on end applications”, Atanu Mukherjee, Dastur
Investec ESG 2.0 Conclave: Ohmium’s plans & product offerings - Mr Pashupathy Gopalan, Investor, Ohmium International
Investec ESG Conclave: De-carbonisation opportunities & challenges in the Indian context - Mr. Hemant Mallya, CEEW
We hosted Mr Rakesh Chopdar, MD, Azad Engineering at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Azad Engineering is a leading manufacturer of precision forged & machined components for turbine & aerospace.
We hosted Mr Sanjay Shah, VP & Chief Strategy Officer, Shaily Engineering Plastics Ltd at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Shaily is a leading manufacturer of products for the medical, healthcare and consumer sectors.
We hosted Vijay Sharma, Director, Jindal Stainless at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Jindal Stainless is one of the largest stainless steel conglomerates in India and ranks amongst the top 10 stainless steel conglomerates in the world.
We hosted Mr Anubhav Gupta, Chief Strategy Officer, Apollo Tubes at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Apollo Tubes is the Largest producer of Structural Steel Tubes in India.
We hosted Mr Anand Vora, Global CFO & Raj Tiwari, Global Chief Supply Chain Officer, UPL at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. UPL is an Indian multinational company that manufactures and markets agrochemicals, industrial chemicals, chemical intermediates, and specialty chemicals, and also offers crop protection solutions.
We hosted Mr Hitesh Windlass, MD, Windlas Biotech at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Windlas Biotech is a provider of pharmaceutical development services, large-scale manufacturing services and authentic yet affordable products to its customers and consumers around the world.
We hosted Mr Guruprasad Srinivasan, Chief Operating Officer – India Region, Quess at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Quess is a leading business services provider.
We hosted Pramod Gupta, CFO and Vikas Gupta, Director - Operations, PG Electroplast at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. PG Electroplast is one of India’s leading players in the EMS, Plastic Injection Moulding and Printed Circuit Boards space.
We hosted Manish Sharma, Chairman and CEO, Panasonic India and South Asia at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Panasonic is a leading consumer durable and home appliances company in India; CEO also chairs FICCI Electronics Manufacturing Committee.
We hosted Mr Vinod Sharma, MD, Deki Electronics at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Deki Electronics is a leading manufacturer of wide range of film capacitors.
We hosted Mr Jasbir Singh, Chairman and CEO, Amber Group at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Amber is the largest Room AC ODM/ OEM players, with widest product offering.
We hosted Mr Ramachandran Ramamoorthy - Head - India SCM Division, Bharat FIH, a Foxconn Technology Group Company at the Investec India Manufacturing Virtual Conclave. Bharat FIH, a Foxconn Technology Group Company, is the largest Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Company
Aditya Jhawar, Auto Analyst, Investec India had hosted Mr. Yadvinder Singh Guleria, Director - Sales & Marketing, Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (HMSI) as part of our Investec Auto Expert series. While the increase in Covid-19 intensity recently has resulted in a slight dip in enquiries, rapid vaccination, continued economic activities and a night-only lockdown could help insulate demand to some extent. Recent uptick in scooters volumes is a reflection of recovery of urban demand. With the encouraging response to H’Ness 350 (sold ~14K units and order backlog of ~1.5 months with a mere 40 touch points since launch in Oct’20), management plans to expand distribution to 100 by FY22 as well as expand capacity. While OEMs have increased prices to offset commodity inflation, considering the demand is still improving, ASP increase could lag uptick in RM prices, as per Honda management. Thus, OEM margins could be under check.
Strong rural demand saw a healthy financial performance across the FMCG sector in FY21. The year that grappled with lockdowns also saw the unprecedented rise of the online channels for distribution and sale of goods. However, with the second deadly COVID-19 wave spreading across smaller towns and villages, will the rural demand be sustainable in FY22? What would be the impact on gross margins due to the rising inflation in crude and its derivatives, palm oil, and copra? To answer this and many more questions regarding the Indian FMCG sector, Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Harit Kapoor, Consumer Analyst, Investec India.
As India grapples with the devastating and deadly Covid-19 second wave, the vaccination drive has come as a glimmer of hope. But there are many questions surrounding this biggest drive in the world primarily around capacity and pricing. To answer these questions Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Anshuman Gupta, India's leading pharma analyst. Anshuman recently released a research report titled - India Pharmaceuticals: Vaccine Supply Modelling for India: Supplies set to improve. The report is supported by a detailed Working Excel Model that takes into account various factors that will aid the vaccination drive in India.
Investec India had hosted the 5th Annual Insurance Conference on March 22 - 23, 2021. Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Nidhesh Jain, Insurance Analyst on the key takeaways from the conference which focussed on the Life Insurance and General Insurance segments in India.
Mukul Kochhar, Co-Head Institutional Equities spoke with Investec’s Chief Economist, Philip Shaw to discuss the latest Global Economic Overview - inflation dynamics – whether the excessive money printing globally results is currency debasement, and inflation in real asset prices. This dynamic also has substantial implication for Equity prices, as reflation of Equity multiples for high growth stocks is partly predicated on expectation of low long term interest rates. Any change here should result in substantial upheaval in the very structure of Equity market rally today.
Everyone on the street is awaiting for the true picture to unravel post the deadline of moratorium on August 31. Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Nidhesh Jain, NBFC Analyst, Investec India to share some insights from his latest report - SFBs and NBFCs: COVID credit costs seem manageable.
Every year, Indian summer shines brightly on the electricals sector. However the severe lockdown across the country caused an impact on some of the companies. To give us an overview on the lockdown quarter for the electrical sector is with Aditya Bhartia, Industrial Analyst for Investec India.
Amid the Covid shock, the bad loans are likely to mount to 12-15 per cent region. With the deadline for moratorium approaching, many rating agencies have issued red flags on how the financial institutions may suffer. To understand on what ails Indian banks and what the next few quarters will look like, Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Sri Karthik, banking analyst for investec.
As covid stands prolonged, Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Ritesh Shah, Materials analyst, Investec India to understand his perspectives on the Indian building material and resources sector
Nidhesh Jain, NBFC Analyst, Investec India hosted Sadaf Sayeed, CEO of Muthoot Microfin, the 6th largest MFI with a GLP of Rs49bn and active client base of 1.9mn as of Mar’20. The company has witnessed improvement in collections improving from ~18% in May to 50% in June. Rural is showing marginally better collections than urban. Interestingly, in Muthoot’s experience, customers on monthly collections have better behaviour than other customers. Mr. Sayeed expects structural changes in the collection process post COVID with ~50% of collections moving to digital over the medium term. He also expects the industry to move towards individual loans which, is a trend outside India. Muthoot is investing in technology to prepare for these changes.
For the past three months auto sales have been negligible, with volumes improving gradually month-on-month. With the country now opening up, people, aware of social distancing norms, are shifting gears to buy their private vehicles. If a recent auto survey is to be believed, auto sales are going to pick up pace post the lockdown, though there could be higher demand for cheaper pre-owned cars. At the budget end, two-wheelers are also expected to witness better demand with more Indians preferring to commute two-wheelers over public transport. Aditya Jhawar, Auto Analyst, Investec India hosted Yadvinder Singh Guleria, Director - Sales & Marketing, Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Pvt. Ltd. (HMSI) to discuss the recent trends in two wheelers, recovery timeline for the sector and the launch of separate channel for premium bikes in India.
Investec India hosted Mr Harsh Srivastava, CEO - MFIN, an Indian microfinance sector association. So far, most listed players have indicated as high as 50%+ collection efficiency in the first half of June’20. However, Mr Srivastava believes that this could still be limited to a few large players while most of the system might continue to struggle with collections of ~25% currently. This is expected to gradually improve to a 50-60% level by Sept’20 before fully normalizing by Dec’20. From a political risks perspective, between the two states of Bihar and West Bengal (WB) which are heading into elections, West Bengal seems more vulnerable but the industry seems to be banking on Bandhan to smoothen any unwanted events. Finally, liquidity flow to the sector remains the biggest risk which can force smaller MFIs to pursue aggressive collections which could lead to potential political risks.
Investec India hosted Mr. Sanjay Sinha (MD, M-Cril) & Mr. Sudhir Narayan (ED, M-Cril). M-Cril is a research & analytics firm with a focus on inclusive microeconomics and microfinance. Highlights of the discussion include a) MFIs continue to face liquidity constraints which, if not addressed, could be catastrophic, b) Collection Efficiency (CE) improved in June, c) Rural is performing well where CE is expected to reach 60%+ in June, d) there are no signs of political interference yet and the possibility is low given no immediate elections (barring Bihar), e) industry losses could be similar to demonetisation with PAR30 ~20% by Dec’20 improving to 15% by Mar’21. Liquidity for the sector is of paramount importance and could reduce or exacerbate industry losses.
Digital has become a big part of the IT services business over the last decade. However there are winds of change that could impact the way these spends are done. While the role of the CIO has been diminishing over the last many years with technology decisions being taken by other CXO’s, there is now a resurgence in the role of the CIO. Nitin Padmanabhan, analyst, Investec India spoke with Rajan Kohli, President – Wipro Digital on how this change buying behaviour and how are digital spends likely to evolve.
Every crisis has redefined the technology services industry and the post COVID world is likely to be no different. Nitin Padmanabhan, IT Analyst, Investec India hosted Dr.Deshpande, Founder, Chairman and Managing Director of Persistent Systems to understand this across four vectors – Technology, People, Client and Investor. Navigating his business through two significant crisis in this millennium- 2000 & 2008 – Dr Deshpande had envisioned the growth of cloud and lower software development effort in early 2008.
COVID-19 has imposed several challenges on the FMCG and Retail sector across the world - social distancing measures in factories, changing consumer behaviour, loss of sales at important spots like vending machines, school cafeterias, workplace, etc can have a long term impact on the sector. Different markets are likely to behave in different ways given where they are in the cycle of the COVID-19 impact. Harit Kapoor, FMCG Analyst spoke with Alicia Forry (European Consumer Staples Analyst), Kate Calvert (Retail Analyst) and Ben Hunt (Retail Analyst) to understand the near and medium term impact on FMCG and Retail witnessed globally.
Up until the beginning of this year, the Indian food and service industry was all set to register about 10.4 per cent Compound Annual Rate Growth (CAGR) over the next five years to reach Rs 5.5 trillion by 2022. Then the unexpected occurred, and with the ongoing pandemic, most of the restaurants in India downed their shutters for over two months now, and are facing serious challenges even to pay rentals and salaries. According to CRISIL, organised restaurants account for ~35% of India’s restaurant industry, estimated at Rs 4.2 trillion in fiscal 2019. Dine-ins are 75% of the organised restaurants, with online delivery/takeaways making up the rest. Going forward, in a social distancing world, what will dine-in restaurants need to do to survive? Will Quick Service Restaurants and online delivery be the next wave?
Harit Kapoor, FMCG analyst, Investec India spoke with Mr. Tarun Khanna, Partner, CX Partners.
The impact of COVID-19 has been severe on the job market. CMIE data suggests unemployment in India has risen to ~27%, with jobs losses in the informal and formal segment running into several millions. To understand whether the data is as bad as that, how much of this will be permanent job losses, which sectors are hardest hit and what changes in labour laws are needed, Investec India had hosted a special session with Mr Lohit Bhatia, president in one of largest player in the temporary staffing segment and also president of the Indian Staffing Federation. A veteran in the staffing industry, Lohit also shared some insights into the exposure of Flexi-staffing in BFSI.
The magnitude of impact of Covid-19 could be very different from urban to rural India. To get a better perspective on the rural economy, and implications of the recent pay deferral by state governments on consumption, Investec India hosted Ms Sujatha Muthadi, Assistant Director – Dept. of Agriculture, Government of Telangana to understand the impact of unprecedented uncertainty around Covid-19 on rural consumer behaviour.
Investec India hosted Sharvik Shah, Director, Rajesh Motors Group. Speaking to Aditya Jhawar, Auto analyst, Investec India, Mr Shah, a veteran in the Auto & Auto Financing ecosystem, provided onground insights and reality check amid the COVID-19 crisis - dealership health, demand trends, liquidity support, what the OEMs are lobbying for & other valuable perspective.
Investec India hosted Amar Merani, Managing Director & CEO, Xander Finance to understand the impact of Covid-19 on and on real estate financing. Over the past 6 years, Xander Finance has not only emerged as one of India’s premier wholesale financing NBFCs across sectors and geographies but has demonstrated strong growth in all operating and financial metrics
Key takeaways from the discussion were: a) 75-80% of developers opted for moratorium and this could be further extended till Sept’20, (b) more than 80% of LRD is with banks and their risk appetite will come down, and (c) the commercial segment seems stable for now while Retail is severely affected.
Investec India hosted Mr Nilesh Sathe, Former Member (Life) - IRDAI to share deep insights into the Indian Life Insurance sector. Mr Sathe shared his views on the change in the regulatory scenario post COVID-19.. He also highligted the vulnerabilities in the sector that were seen during COVID-19 and should be addressed in future.
Investec India hosted Mr Ranvir Singh, Managing Director & Co-Founder, Kissht to understand the trends in the Retail Credit amid the COVID19 pandemic and lockdown. Ranvir shared deep insghts into the trends in collections and how big is the collection problem faced by the NBFCs especially in the consumer durables financing and personal loan segments; how moratorium is perceived by the customers and explained if it is a boon or bane for the system; trends for liquidity in the NBFC especially for the Fintech segment; what were the preCOVID19 trends for consumer stress and going forward, what changes maybe required in the business model for the fintech segment post covid19
Investec India hosted Mr Somasekhar Vemuri, Senior Director - CRISIL Ratings to discuss the early trends in Corporate Loans amid the COVID19 crisis and the lockdown in the country. He presented his view on potential rating changes that the banking system will need to handle over the next 2 years. The discussions were around likely stress build up in corporate portfolios, portfolio composition by rating coverage, and probability of defaults for various rated pools. He also addressed the likely increase to Sub-Investment grade exposures for the banking system.
Investec India hosted Mr Ashish Singhal, Managing Director, Experian Credit Information Company of India, to provide a granular view on impact of COVID 19 on retail lending – both secured and unsecured. Hepresented his views on the risk impact on existing portfolio & the expected shift in new demand and how credit institutions can safeguard against these.
Investec India hosted Kiran Kothekar, Founding Director of Vector Consulting Group to discuss the Significance of counter thinking (TOC thinking) post COVID crisis, to buck the trend. …
Vector Consulting Group is one of the largest and fastest growing management consulting firm in India. It deploys Theory of Constraints (TOC)management philosophy to provide solutions. Vector engages with companies to help gain market share by focusing on supply chain, operations and sales capabilities that provide a competitive edge over its peers. Vector Consulting Group is widely known in the industry as an implementation-focused firm with a unique risk sharing model of consulting. Currently Vector caters to industries like auto and auto components, textile and apparel, consumer goods and retail, engineering and construction, equipment manufacturing and Pharmaceuticals. Some of Vector Consulting Group’s clients include companies in the Tata group, the Godrej group, Bajaj Electricals, Pidilite, Jindal Stainless Steel, Ashok Leyland, TVS Motors, Sonalika Tractors, VIP Luggage, Lenskart, Polycab, Kirloskar Oil Engines, Sun Pharma, Lupin, Ambuja Cements, etc. The company has a team of around 140 consultants.
Ritesh Shah, Analyst- Building Materials, Investec India hosted Mr. Abhishek Somany, the MD of Somany Ceramics, to understand potential trends and strategies, post COVID. Demand trends are uncertain and priority remains on WC discipline, supporting dealers, and to make good of higher exposure to Ex tier-1 cities. Exports could move surplus Morbi capacity away (only gradually). Pricing power for the sector remains elusive and it will be a function of cost curve movement (gas prices), govt.’s thrust on tax compliance, export trends and local demand. Earnings for Ceramic companies would remain challenged in the near term, though efficient capital allocators should see a re-rating in the long run.
Investec India hosted Mr. Karan Motwani, HP International (Asia’s largest solvent cement maker), to better understand solvent, adhesive and sealant markets. The long term story on adhesives and sealants is sound given low penetration levels and limited ‘know-how’ in India. Channel (retail/ applicators), chemistry know-how and distributor connect are crucial success. Incumbents with distribution/ brands are well poised to ride the demand curve. We discuss key adhesive categories – on market size, growth rates and profitability metrics.
Investec India hosted Rishabh Agarwal, Director, Responsive Industries to understand the changing landscape in the vinyl flooring sector and the impact it is seeing due to the COVID19 pandemic. There has been rapid pace of development in flooring industry and the preferences of flooring has been migrated from hardwood to ceramic, then to laminate and now from laminate to resilient or vinyl flooring. Luxury Vinyl Tile (LVT) has sparked the industry and is set to be the next biggest evolution in flooring. Globally, LVT market contributes 53.0% of total vinyl flooring market by sales volume. In 2018, LVT represented second most popular type of vinyl flooring. India, however, observed only a meager 11.2% market-share of LVT in 2018, and that reflects the humongous growth opportunity in this segment.
Investec India hosted Mr. Sreekanth Reddy, Jt. MD, Sagar Cements (NR), to understand cement trends and strategies post-COVID. Demand is uncertain and the priority is on pricing, factoring cost curve pressures. Distribution & logistics strategies will vary for each co. based on target markets. Incremental capacity additions in the South are likely to see delays and some cancellations can’t be ruled out. Companies across the board have made incentive payouts to dealers on a pro-rata basis for FY20; enhanced cash discounts ensure WC discipline.
Confinement, social distancing, lockdown... the world is trying every measure to slow down the pandemic which caused with more than 2,00,000 deaths and over 3 million cases globally. However eventually the only way to actually prevent people from catching Covid-19 is with a vaccine. Nearly 80 companies and academic institutions are racing to produce one. GlaxoSmithKline a leading vaccine manufacturer recently collaborated with Sanofi to develop a COVID Vaccine. Anshuman Gupta, Pharma Analyst, Investec India spoke with James Dodwell, Director, Investor Relations & Danielle Smith, Director, Investor Relations to get insights into the Vaccine development and potential, new businesses and market opportunities.
Investec India had hosted William Marth, President & CEO - Emcure Pharmaceuticals (North America & Europe Business) to discuss the US Generic market and the concerns around the global supply management. Mr Marth said that there was angst in the supply chain management as the demand for other products related to COVID19 ailments like ventilators have gone up dramatically in the past few months, putting pressure on the suppliers. Moreover customers were protecting themselves by buying more as inventory. The keen question was will the supply chain hold up. Mr. Marth is currently the President & CEO for North America & Europe business of Emcure / Heritage Pharma. Prior to joining Emcure in 2018 he served as the President & CEO for AMRI (Albany Molecular Research Institute) (2012-18) and prior to that he worked as the President & CEO of Teva Americas where he played a key role in establishing Teva Pharmaceuticals as a leading specialty pharmaceuticals company.
Investec India hosted Mr. Mahesh P, Promoter - Viruj Pharmaceuticals for a discussion on the COVID19 impact on the API manufacturing companies. Mr Mahesh said that India has the capabilities to manufacture APIs in India adding that post the COVID19, many countries are planning on shifting their base from China to our geographies which include India. Mr. Mahesh is the promoter and managing director of Viruj Pharmaceuticals (an Hyderabad based API manufacturing company). Mr Mahesh has been a part of the pharma industry for 25+ years now and prior to setting up Viruj Pharmaceuticals (2014), he worked extensively with pharma cos such as Glenmark and Neuland at senior management positions.
Investec India hosted Dr. Madhukar Gangadi, founder and CEO of MedPlus, India’s largest independent retail pharmacy chain. Dr Gangadi discussed the trends that they noticed since end of February and post lockdown when customers started stocking for chronic and acute medicines for at least 2 months. He also believes that the coronavirus has led to Indians becoming more hygiene conscious and hygiene and immunity boosting products will see a rise. Dr Gangadi has pioneered the concept of omni-channel pharmacies in India through MedPlus, which sells medicines through both online and offline platforms. Prior to founding MedPlus in 2006, Dr. Gangadi has successfully built businesses in the areas of IT and retail. He is an MBBS from Kurnool Medical College and an MBA from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
Investec India hosted Mr Sanjeev Jain (Promoter, Akums Drugs & Pharma – Largest Branded Formulation Contract Manufacturer for Domestic Market) . Mr Jain spoke about the various trends like the demand for GP type medicines like paracetamol and crocin falling amid the COVID19 crisis, whereas diabetic, cardiac and CNS medicines seeing a regular demand, the growth of generic-generic medicines in India and behavioural changes among the patients who are scared to go to doctors, and docs themselves are grappling about opening their clinic with proper protocols.
Mr. Jain is the co-founder & the director of Akums Drugs & Pharma Ltd and has 25+ years of experience in the pharma industry. Akums is India’s single largest Contract Research and Manufacturing (CRAMS) organization responsible for manufacturing approximately 11-12 % of all drugs consumed in the country. It has 9 manufacturing facilities across India and has an annual turnover of ~INR 30 bn.
Investec India hosted Mr Mahesh Doshi (IDMA National President & Promoter of an API Manufacturing Co) recently to discuss impact of COVID19 and lockdown on the API market. Mr Doshi spoke about the challenges faced by the drug manufacturers in the past few days particularly in transportation due to lack of migrant labourers, how to counter China’s dominance in the API market. Mr. Doshi has 30+ years of experience in the pharma industry. Along with being the national president of the Indian Drugs Manufacturers Association (IDMA), he also runs his own API manufacturing company named Dy-Mach Pharma which has manufacturing plants in Vapi (Gujarat).
Investec India hosted K Anand FDA and Regulatory Consultant to understand the developments on the FDA and other Regulatory approvals during the COVID19 crisis. Mr Anand explained that the Indian Pharma industry caught the attention of USA and Europe due to the proposed coronavirus medicines - HCQ and Erythromycin - requirements as these countries don’t manufacture these products. Barring coronavirus treatments, in other areas too, India has been in the spotlight of international communities. Mr Anand believes that the Indian pharma has a huge potential to rise to the occasion for supplying products to the international and domestic markets in a timely manner and win the trust of the FDA and other regulatory bodies. Mr. Anand is the Founder and CEO of Qualiminds Corporate Services Pvt Ltd, a Mumbai based Pharma Consulting company. Before Qualimeds, Mr Anand has had a 35+ yrs. experience in quality & regulatory affairs. He has held leadership positions in various pharma giants where he was responsible for Quality, GmP compliance, regulatory affairs, technology transfer and technical operation functions.
FY2020 was a challenging year for the Indian insurance Industry due to the introduction of a simplified direct tax structure, weak equity markets and COVID-19 impact at the end of FY20. Growth remains in single-digits. Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Nidhesh Jain, insurance analyst with Investec India on the latest trends and demystifying the sector for our listeners. COVID19 will see a serious change in the behaviour of people and savings rate may increase is what Nidhesh strongly believes.
On the back of the global pandemic as well as the Big Outperformance for the Indian Pharma sector over benchmark indices in recent times, the Investec Pharma team hosted a 7 Industry Experts Series over 5 Days in April. US, India & API businesses were central to discussions. The series, which generated an overwhelming response among global investors, gave a very good perspective and a solid on-the-ground / transparent view across the pharma value chain during the COVID crises; not just the current situation but it also set investor expectations for the near future, which appears quite uncertain. After a cautious approach for almost 5 years, Anshuman Gupta, pharma analyst, investec india turned positive in late February of 2020. Swapna Bhandarkar spoke with Anshuman on this
Sakti Chakraborty (Ex - Lupin India Business Head) speaks to Anshuman Gupta, pharma analyst at Investec India about the trends that will be seen in the pharma sector, the challenges in the demand - supply for medicines across India and what changes in behaviour the industry will notice due to the COVID19 protocols. A veteran in the Pharma sector, Mr. Chakraborty has led a successful and a greatly accomplished career spanning more than four decades with major pharma giants like Aristo, Alkem, Wockhardt & Lupin. Before stepping out to start his own venture (Ergos Life Sciences), Mr. Sakti was the Lupin India Business head for 17 years (until 2017) where he scaled up the cos business to new heights.
The situation around COVID-19 is evolving on a daily basis, and checks with the Indian IT companies by the Investec India IT research team have also indicated an evolving view. In this podcast, Nitin Padmanabhan, IT analyst discusses the framework that they have built to develop a likely scenario for the sector amid the global crisis, based on experience.
A strict lockdown in the country led to a halt to discretionary spends like movies, restaurant and luxury items and consumers are possibly going to defer spending on fashion, personal grooming and home decor even after the situation improves. Harit Kapoor, FMCG analyst spoke on the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the Indian FMCG sector in the coming quarters.
Ritesh Shah hosted a call with the Investec Global Resources Team on the COVID-19 impact on the metals and mining sector. Listen to Ritesh in conversation with Dr Peter Richardson, top rated commodity analyst and Hunter Hillcoat, an expert in mining as they discuss the commodity outlook that though had a positive start in 2020 has spectacularly collapsed under the COVID-19 pandemic
Mukul Kochhar of Investec Strategy team hosted a conference call with Mr. Subhash Chandra Garg, Former Finance Secretary of India, to discuss potential fiscal response by the Government of India to the challenges facing the economy, as it grapples with the largest health crisis ever faced by the country, and the world, at large. Having played a central role in the budget making process both at the Center, and State, Mr. Garg is uniquely aware of the issues involved in framing a response.
Q4 FY20E results, for most banks, is going to be a continuation of Q3’20 trends – banks reporting stable results will continue to do so and those reporting weak trends, especially on asset quality, will see no relief. The impact of the loss of business in the last fortnight of March due to the lockdown will be minimal for large banks and mostly restricted to select line items like card spends, bancassurance, retail disbursements etc.
COVID-19 has put a halt to the good growth Indian cement mills were enjoying, with volume growth for Jan-Feb’20 at 6.8% year on year. The extent of the current slowdown is anyone’s guess. That said, we take stock of pricing, cost trends, assume half of Q1FY21 as a lost quarter, capture fixed costs, factor gradual recovery and trim estimates/TPs and revisit ratings.
Ritesh Shah, Cement – Analyst, Investec Capital Services India, speaks to us on the outlook of the cement sector in the coming months.