The Investing Podcast

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Andrew and Tom discuss retail sales falling 0.6% month-over-month against an expected 0.1% gain, with the prior month also revised lower, driving the market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike this year down to 27% from near-certainty just two weeks ago, a weak 30-year Treasury auction that priced at 5.216%, the highest since 2001, with bonds continuing to decouple from cooling inflation and labor data, Trump announcing 100% tariffs on unmanned drones in a further push to decouple supply chains from China, and Cobb County's 5-2 vote greenlighting the Powers Ferry data center despite local opposition.

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Ben and Tom discuss producer prices coming in cooler than expected for a second straight month with headline PPI flat month-over-month and core PPI easing to 4.2% year-over-year, Tom's argument that interest rates remain too high given the $40 trillion national debt after the 10-year auctioned at the highest rate since 2007 and the 30-year approaching its highest since 2001, a breakdown of how portfolio management fees and retail margins are skewing the services component of inflation data, Lenovo surging 20% as AI-related revenue climbs to 35% of total revenue, and Lambda's new $926 million amortizing loan priced at 300 basis points over SOFR as an early example of asset-backed financing structures emerging to fund AI infrastructure buildouts.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss CoreWeave soaring 17% after raising its 2026 CapEx guidance to $35-39 billion and pushing through roughly 25% price increases across its GPU pricing tiers, extending the useful life of its chips and signing an A100 contract through 2029 despite the SKU launching in 2020, Trump reportedly weighing changes to capital gains taxes including exemptions for homes worth $2 million or less and indexing gains to inflation, a discussion of whether eliminating the corporate income tax and capital gains tax in favor of ordinary income treatment would be simpler and more pro-growth, and a New York State Supreme Court judge temporarily blocking Mayor Mamdani's pied-a-terre tax rollout after finding the city improperly shifted the burden of proving primary-residence exemptions onto property owners, with arguments set for August 31.

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Ben and Tom discuss the $500 billion private-capital AI infrastructure fund unveiled on CNBC by Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Larry Fink, Jonathan Gray, and the heads of Apollo, KKR, and Brookfield, Fink's comparison of financing GPU purchases to the early days of 1970s mortgage-backed securities and the underlying assumption that Nvidia chips won't depreciate, a breakdown of how asset-backed lending structures like aircraft bonds could apply to GPU financing, Tom's "Through the Looking Glass" thesis arguing markets remain captive to Bernanke-era assumptions that no longer hold in a supply-side, fiscal-dominance framework, tomorrow's CPI report and whether a firm print could test Warsh's rate stance, and NFIB Small Business Optimism hitting its highest level since last August with hiring plans at a four-year high even as actual employment remains soft.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Berkshire Hathaway finally deploying its cash pile with the $6.8 billion purchase of Taylor Morrison Homes, a $10 billion new stake in Google now among its top five holdings, and $4.5 billion in buybacks, prompting the question of whether Buffett's years of caution are giving way to optimism, operating earnings up 24% and utilities profit up 27% even as BNSF and Geico continue to lag, TSMC's strong July sales supporting Q3 guidance for 46-48% revenue growth, a rough stretch for agriculture with Taylor Farms recalling jalapeño products in a salmonella outbreak following an earlier Cyclospora scare, and Treasury Wine Estates taking a $500 million charge and retreating from its US "masstige" strategy as global wine consumption hits its lowest level since the 1960s

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Atlassian soaring 30% after declaring "AI is the best thing that's ever happened" to the company with credit consumption doubling quarter-over-quarter, the ECB reportedly blindsided after Treasury sold euros rather than dollars in last week's yen intervention with senior officials calling it an unprecedented breach of monetary cooperation conventions, Microchip Technology rising 9% on accelerating data center demand and a long multi-year upcycle across aerospace, defense, industrial, and automotive, Natera jumping 15% on accelerated MRD testing, Elon Musk's new $16.8 billion Terafab chip facility in Texas backed by SpaceX and Tesla, SK Hynix's $38 billion capacity expansion to ease the memory shortage, reports that Nvidia is testing lower-memory versions of its next-gen Rubin Ultra GPU, upcoming changes to the PCE calculation expected to lower reported inflation by up to 30bps, today's jobs report, and new US intelligence suggesting Putin could test NATO's resolve with a limited incursion.

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Ben and Tom discuss WSJ's Timiraos reporting that Trump has been calling Warsh repeatedly since he became Fed Chair — treating him as a trusted economic adviser on the Iran war and AI's economic impact — reigniting the Fed independence debate just as Bessent posted a viral tweet that lit up financial media, memory names WDC dropping 16% and SNDK falling 12% on decelerating quarterly growth despite still-strong annual revenue, ISM Services showing continued resilience with tariff and Middle East concerns fading and World Cup boosts persisting, Fastenal running slightly better than seasonal, Bank of America showing acceleration in lower-income segments, Costco's lowest ex-gas ticket since November potentially signaling disinflation, and Meta launching its Muse Code coding agent as a cheaper alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss SpaceX falling 11% despite laying out an ambitious AI and Starlink roadmap including Grok 5 trained on internal SpaceX data by year-end, 1.4GW of current compute growing toward 10GW by end of 2027, deploying NVL72-designed data centers on the ground rather than in space, boots on the moon by 2028, and the goal of scaling launch cadence to one per day in 2027, SpaceX's decision to go exclusively with Nvidia sending AMD down 9% despite good results and CPU acceleration while Arista Networks jumped 14% on accelerating networking demand tied to Nvidia, CVS raising guidance and re-adding Zepbound to its formulary while publicly backing Eli Lilly with expanded GLP-1 support, Lilly beating on stronger-than-expected GLP-1 pricing, Disney rising 4% on parks strength and a TikTok short-form video partnership, Uber slipping despite record first-time user additions, and the JOLTS report showing softer job openings but likely not a signal Warsh will weigh.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the industrial demand train continuing to roll with ISM Manufacturing accelerating to 55.6 and employment turning positive for the first time in 33 months, Caterpillar raising guidance and surging 10% on data center engine and turbine demand, Palantir soaring 15% with US commercial revenue up 149% and Karp declaring the "revolution for AI sovereignty" is underway, ON Semi up 8% on silicon carbide AI data center revenue growing 60%, Entegris beating estimates, TransDigm +3% on double-digit aerospace and defense growth, Cummins raising outlook on data center power gen, healthcare beats from MRK and PFE potentially masking channel stuffing, McDonald's +2% on better-than-feared comps with a new US president appointed, ADM +5% on the EPA biofuel mandate, and Snap +6% on the World Cup boost.

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Ben and Tom discuss the rare coordinated currency intervention with the US joining Japan and possibly Korea to prop up the yen from 164 to 155, Japan spending at least $53 billion with the US chipping in over $1 billion — reportedly by selling euros rather than dollars in a strategic move to pressure Eurozone policy while supporting Japan, Bessent's incentive to keep Japan from dumping US Treasuries, Japan's plan to tap a COVID-era $60B/day USD swap facility, Iran signaling that Hormuz talks with Oman are entering the final stages after MBS urged Trump to prioritize dialogue, and the market reaction with oil down 5% to the high-$70s/low-$80s, the 10-year at 4.68%, and stocks up 0.5%.

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Ben and Andrew discuss a plan for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, and the blowup of the AI focused hedge fund Situational Awarness.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Warsh holding rates at 3.50-3.75% in a divided 6-3 vote with market-implied inflation expectations dropping meaningfully since the last meeting, the BOE also holding at 3.75% in a matching 6-3 split, the emerging Mag-7 split with Microsoft rising 8% on improved AI ROI, better throughput, and Copilot seat growth versus Meta down 9% on longer time-to-value and fuzzy CapEx guidance beyond 2027, the broader takeaway that Mag-7 is now focused on driving AI revenue and CapEx efficiency which is bearish for Nvidia near-term but long-term positive for the industry, a Russian missile leaving a 30-foot crater on the Poland-Ukraine border, Admiral Cooper preparing a 10-14 day punishing air campaign against Iran, and South Korea weighing a short-selling ban.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's Fed meeting with a 35% chance of a rate hike and expectations of a hawkish hold from Warsh amid potential mutiny from Waller, Bostic, and Lisa Cook, the emerging "semi-stagflation" theme with memory prices destroying demand and slamming chip stocks including Vertiv down 14%, Skyworks and Qorvo down double digits, and KLA down 8%, Procter & Gamble's remarkable flatline quarter with 0% volume, 0% pricing, and 0% organic growth, the strong and resilient consumer theme from Visa and Garmin, disruption stories like CoStar losing search traffic to AI, Trump vowing to hit Iran hard after intercepted attacks sending oil up 5%, and Zuckerberg's WSJ op-ed calling for democratized AI access.

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Ben and Tom discuss the growing Fed infighting reported by WSJ's Nick Timiraos with Governor Chris Waller openly challenging new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a dinner over his five new outside expert task forces on communications, inflation framework, asset holdings, data, and AI's impact on productivity, Warsh's notable silence on economic shocks despite the changed environment, the AIA Architecture Billings Index staying below 50 for 41 straight months in one of the longest downturns on record, oil falling as Iran hosts a diplomatic call with Saudi Arabia and Oman with WTI down to $80, chips getting smashed again on Korea weakness and China competition, and Trump's packed schedule meeting Zelensky and Netanyahu before Lindsey Graham's funeral.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia agreeing to guarantee $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's $500 billion 10GW data center in southern Ohio developed by SoftBank Energy with Japan investing $33 billion in the natural gas power plant and the US government splitting power revenues, CXMT's 450% China market debut and Apple's interest in sourcing memory chips from them to avoid hostage-taking by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, "TACO Monday" as Trump paused Iran strikes over the weekend to give diplomacy space amid concerns over Patriot interceptor stockpiles, and the market impact with oil down 7% to the mid-$80s, stocks up across the board, gold rising on Fed dovish odds, and a 33% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday.

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Ben discusses SLB rising 5% after beating on broad-based international drilling activity with its Data Center Solutions business on track to exceed $1 billion annualized run rate this year and $2 billion by end of 2027, Intel's after-hours pop fading as CapEx ballooned to over $20 billion for 2026 with 2027 significantly higher despite strong Client and Data Center results, Tenet Healthcare soaring 16% on a massive EPS guidance raise from Medicaid supplemental payments in TX and CA, HCA falling 3% on payer mix headwinds from ACA coverage losses, and NextEra reiterating all guidance through 2035 as power demand accelerates.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Houthis targeting Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea with Trump vowing to destroy a bridge or power plant for every Strait attack, a mixed AI earnings print with ServiceNow up 6% cementing itself as the AI control tower while Google fell 4% on heavy cloud spend without ad acceleration and TPU revenue pushed to 2027, STMicroelectronics dropping 14% on a big margin miss, strong railroad growth from CSX raising numbers with FCF up over 80%, Norfolk Southern posting solid revenue growth, the 30-year yield nearing 5.2%, the ECB holding rates at 2.25% while warning on energy inflation, Uber cutting 10% of customer service jobs, and Bessent moving to oust Fed Vice Chair Barr over SVB.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the widening Iran war with the US expanding airstrikes to a military site near Tabriz, Iran activating air defenses in Tehran and firing on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, the complete breakdown of diplomacy and early talk of ground forces, the landmark 30-year deal approving uranium enrichment in Saudi Arabia for civilian nuclear power with US companies playing a central role, and oil prices ripping 4% with Brent into the mid $90s and WTI into the high $80s.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss what today's earnings say about a broadening economy with 3M raising full-year EPS guidance to $8.80-$8.95 on sharp acceleration in Safety/Industrial and Transportation/Electronics, Steel Dynamics posting +12% total steel volume and +19% steel fabrication shipments backed by reshoring and infrastructure demand, weakness continuing in consumer categories like packaging and home improvement, and financials showing resilient consumer spending, improving credit quality, and early signs of renewed price competitiveness in consumer credit and insurance

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the escalating Iran war with an Iranian strike killing two US service members and injuring others in Jordan, oil rising to the high $80s and gas moving back above $4 over the weekend, Strait of Hormuz traffic grinding to a standstill, potential renewed diplomatic outreach from Iran's Foreign Ministry, the 10-year holding at 4.56%, Domino's earnings shedding light on a stabilizing consumer with US-owned comps improving to +2.1%, and a preview of the packed earnings week including DHI, GEV, GOOG, TSLA, IBM, and Thursday's ECB decision.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss a rough day for US tech with Google delaying Gemini 3.5 Pro after it underperformed on coding benchmarks, China's Moonshot releasing Kimi K3 with claims of rivaling OpenAI and Anthropic's top models, Netflix dropping 10% on decelerating US growth and softening engagement, SpaceX scrubbing its Starship launch after four engines failed to fire, today's options expiration, and a look ahead to next week's earnings calendar featuring Google, Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, and the ECB decision.

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Ben and Tom discuss the sharp value-over-momentum rotation with high-flying names getting smashed while broader market breadth improves, SpaceX Starship's critical launch attempt tonight at 5:45 PM local time in South Texas after May's booster spin-out — a launch essential to defending SPCX's $4 billion NASA moon-landing contracts and the broader SpaceX investment thesis — and the levered ETF blowups with South Korea halting new single-stock leveraged ETFs and the Lucid 2x levered ETF liquidating after its NAV went negative.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Reuters report that Stripe and Advent are making a joint $53 billion bid for PayPal at $60.50 per share sending PYPL up 16%, Lucid's near-50% after-hours crash on an EV publication's report of a potential go-private or Chapter 11 restructuring — which the company forcefully denied as "completely false" — Richemont's Americas rising 27% with broad-based jewelry strength and a stunning +36% Japan comeback, and OpenAI's plans for a physical ChatGPT device with personality, proactive learning, and mechanical elements coming in 2027.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.

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Ben and Tom discuss President Trump looking "very strongly" at Australia's mandatory 12% employer-contribution retirement model as a potential answer to the US entitlement problem, and Apple filing a "thermonuclear" lawsuit alleging that OpenAI systematically poached talent and stole trade secrets in one of Tim Cook's last major moves as CEO — echoing Steve Jobs' 2010 declaration of war against Google over Android.

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Thomas and Tom discuss former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke joining Anthropic's Long-Term Benefit Trust to advise on white-collar job displacement and AI bubble risks, Israel sharing intelligence with the US about a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump as ceasefire clashes threaten a mid-August permanent peace deal, OpenAI's number-two executive Fidji Simo stepping back to a part-time advisory role due to a neuroimmune condition, and the growing tension over OpenAI and Google supplying advanced AI to overseas subsidiaries of Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese companies while Anthropic bans Chinese access entirely over distillation concerns.

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Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet collapse, the FOMC minutes noting broader tariff and AI-driven inflation, SK Hynix's US listing 7x oversubscribed at $24.5 billion, and China permitting local AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips for training.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's capital intensity and rate sensitivity, and today's 2 PM release of Warsh's first FOMC minutes.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Services print showing broader strength with much of the employment gain tied to World Cup-related hiring, Samsung's 10% drop and the KOSPI hitting a circuit breaker despite 150% growth as memory chip volatility returns, Chris Waller's nuanced defense of forward guidance as "more art than science," Rivian's $1.5 billion stock sale of 75 million shares, and Toyota's $3.6 billion move of Tacoma production from Baja California to San Antonio as it runs at over 90% capacity utilization in North America.

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Andrew and Tom discuss memory chips ripping again with ASML and LRCX up 5% on the SK Hynix listing, Broadcom's new multi-year custom ASIC deal with Apple through 2031, Solstice's $14.5 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Element Solutions with Goldman advising, and Mario Draghi's proposal to restructure the EU into smaller blocs to unlock growth.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's ADP jobs print with a 120K estimate, yesterday's JOLTS surprise beat at 7.594 million that seems suspiciously convenient against a low bar, Kevin Warsh's panel appearance alongside Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, and Tiff Macklem in his first global central bank sit-down, and Constellation Brands' earnings beat with EPS at $3.79, 39% operating margins, and 21% Pacifico growth despite a slight net sales decline.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Supreme Court ruling that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can stay in her job for now with Chief Justice Roberts defending central bank independence while leaving the door open to a for-cause removal, the divergent Wall Street outlooks with Citi and BofA both calling a market top and projecting roughly 10% downside on stretched positioning and deteriorating momentum, and Kevin Warsh's emerging Fed reform agenda across five task forces covering communication, the balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Comcast's 20% surge on the announced spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable business, Korea's plan to orchestrate $880 billion in AI capacity spending by 2029 with Samsung and SK Group leading $570 billion of chip investment, Apple lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from blacklisted CXMT as the memory squeeze pushes hyperscalers to find new sources, Williams' proposed $5.5 billion deal for Momentum Midstream, and the renewed back-and-forth in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and the US move to talks in Doha.

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Ben and Tom discuss OpenAI delaying its $1 trillion IPO to 2027 as bankers cite tech volatility and the post-SpaceX retail enthusiasm hangover, the resulting sell-off in AI infrastructure names with Softbank down 12% and Micron, NVDA, AVGO, and SNDK all lower, Apple and Microsoft's 15-20% price hikes on iPads, Macs, and Xbox tied to memory chip prices and the likelihood that big tech vertically integrates in response, ON Semi's $6 billion all-stock acquisition of Synaptics to expand into physical AI and robotics with a $100 billion TAM by 2030, and FedEx Freight's commentary that demand may finally be stabilizing.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Republican tensions over Iran, the DOJ's egg price-fixing settlement with Cal-Maine, the narrowing K-shaped economy spending gap, today's PCE inflation print, and rates finally moving as oil drops below $70.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss oil's drop toward the $60s with WTI at $71.93 and Brent at $75.70 while the 10-year stubbornly holds at 4.48%, Trump directing the DOJ to investigate gasoline prices, Bessent's confidence that inflation is heading back to target, the supply/demand for dollars thesis amid massive cash raises from Google, SpaceX, ByteDance, and SK Hynix's planned $29 billion US listing on July 10, and the rightward shift across South America with Keiko Fujimori becoming Peru's first woman president, Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella winning Colombia, and Brazil's election still to come.

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Ben and Tom discuss the return of AI volatility with Korea's stock market crashing 10% and triggering a 20-minute trading halt on forced ETF liquidations, SK Hynix and Samsung both down more than 20%, Oracle disclosing 21,000 job cuts over the past year as workforce shrank from 162K to 141K, the Ramp AI Index showing accelerating spend per employee but a flattening adoption curve, Google breaking the key $350 support level, and weak European PMIs alongside a steep Sunbelt earnings acceleration in the April quarter.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation paving the way for socialist Andy Burnham as the favorite to succeed him in the country's 5th PM change in 4 years, the post-deal whiplash with Iran briefly re-closing the Strait after Israel-Lebanon skirmishes before reporting "major progress" in overnight talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, the muted market reaction with the 10-year up a couple bps and crude flat in the mid-to-high $70s, and Tom's takeaways from the conference and Kevin Warsh's Fed debut.

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Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting ending forward guidance and launching task forces on communication and data quality, the massive curve flattener with the 2-year jumping 17bps and the 30-year dropping 6bps, restored inflation credibility through lower TIPS breakevens, the media pushback led by Nick Timiraos, Trump's pivot into midterm "it's the economy" mode after signing the Iran deal, today's Philly Fed print, and the Bank of England holding at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote as gilts sold off.

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Andrew and Ben discuss Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as Chair with key questions on how hawkish he'll be, how he describes working with Powell, and whether he'll discuss Fed reform, today's retail sales print and yesterday's strong 20-year auction, UK inflation surprising to the downside at 2.8%, and the UAE's longer-term plan to cut dependency on the Strait of Hormuz to zero through Gulf of Oman port expansion, new pipelines to the Red Sea, and expanded rail and road networks.

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Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.

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Ben and Tom discuss the Iran-US agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with the blockade lifted immediately, $25 billion in phased sanction relief, a permanent end to hostilities including Lebanon, and an expected Friday signing in Geneva, the market reaction with oil dropping 5.6% to $80, the Nasdaq up 2.2%, and gold rising 3%, and the start of Warsh Week with the new Fed Chair pushing to scrap forward guidance and remake Fed communication.

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Tom and Thomas discuss SpaceX's IPO trading kicking off around midday with crypto markets implying a $2.3 trillion valuation 30-50% above the IPO price, the heavy skepticism that SPCX can hold that level, the Trump administration's power emergency declaration in the southeastern US allowing plants to exceed pollution limits during dangerous heat, and the framework of the Iran deal including a 30-day Strait of Hormuz reopening, $300 billion in reconstruction funding, the release of $24 billion in frozen assets, and a permanent end to hostilities.

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Ben and Tom discuss Oracle's 8% drop on a $40 billion capital raise plan and CapEx ballooning to $90-95 billion against just 6% EPS growth, the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% into a sagging expansion, today's PPI print and 30-year auction, Rick Rieder's case for Fed cuts and fixed-income opportunities, OpenAI weighing drastic token price cuts to fend off Anthropic, and why Google's equity-funded AI buildout raises real questions about ROIC.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth Social post declaring Iran's military "completely defeated" and the deal effectively dead, today's CPI print with consensus at +4.2% headline, the BOJ rate hike path complicated by Governor Ueda's hospitalization, Super Micro's $7 billion dilutive stock offering to fund $39 billion in backlog orders, the building AI supply overhang from OpenAI's S-1, Google, SpaceX, and Perplexity's 2028 IPO plans, Claude Fable 5's release stabilizing tech, TSMC's 30% May sales rebound, and Oracle earnings tonight.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss China's $295 billion AI infrastructure plan that hands 80% of the buildout to Huawei and squeezes out Nvidia and AMD, Taiwan's tightening AI chip export controls, Korea's 8% rebound after yesterday's circuit breaker, OpenAI's S-1 filing as it races Anthropic to be the first AI lab to go public, the finalized $36 billion Apollo-Blackstone-Google-Anthropic-Broadcom TPU financing deal, and Apple's underwhelming WWDC keynote with a slow Siri AI rollout limited outside the US.

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Andrew, Tom, and Thomas discuss Korea's stock market hitting a circuit breaker overnight with an 8.5% drop, bond traders positioning for a 4.3% CPI surge that could complicate Kevin Warsh's rate-cut plans, and what the renewed inflation fears mean for markets, the Fed, and the AI trade.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Zelensky's open letter to Putin proposing direct man-to-man peace talks with potential involvement from the US and Europe as security guarantors, while Trump is focused on Iran, and S&P Dow Jones Indices' surprise rejection of SpaceX's S&P 500 inclusion, citing GAAP profitability and float requirements.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Netflix's integration of generative AI and natural language processing to help viewers cut through content overload with personalized recommendations and a voice user interface, alongside the latest Iran update with the Foreign Minister claiming no tangible progress in talks, Bibi Netanyahu's CNBC comments raising the prospect of restarting the war, Trump's hope for a weekend deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the market reaction with oil rising and bonds selling off.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the SpaceX IPO targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation with a record $75 billion raise pricing next Thursday, historical data on how mega-IPOs perform and float dynamics, the anomalous JOLTS job openings jump in the West, today's ISM Services and Fed Beige Book releases, and the USTR's new Section 301 tariffs of 10-12.5% on major trading partners including Canada, the EU, Mexico, China, and the UK tied to forced labor.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Google's $80 billion equity raise to fund AI infrastructure CapEx through mandatory convertible preferred stock, Class A and C common stock, and an at-the-market offering, Berkshire Hathaway taking a $10 billion stake at a discount, the administrative shift to corporate cash for employee RSU tax obligations, the broader AI cash crunch with $80 billion of SpaceX stock and Anthropic's IPO filing hitting the market, and which hyperscaler MSFT, ORCL, META, or AMZN could be next to raise.

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Ben and Tom discuss Berkshire Hathaway's $6.8 billion acquisition of Taylor Morrison Homes at a 24% premium as Greg Abel's first big move as CEO and its integration with Clayton Homes for the Sunbelt first-time buyer market, and Nvidia's entry into the Windows PC market with the RTX Spark Superchip in Dell and Lenovo laptops, sending INTC, QCOM, and AMD shares lower.

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Ben and Andrew discuss the Dell's strong earnings report, credit card defaults, and the impact of IPOs on the market.

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Ben and Tom discuss the PCE Inflation Report, small buisness formation, and the new Meta subscriptions.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the AI-driven expansion of the trillion-dollar club with SK Hynix, Micron, and Eli Lilly crossing the $1T market cap threshold and Nvidia leading at $5.2T, Zscaler's 21% premarket drop on prudent guidance and sales leadership departures, the longer-term cybersecurity opportunity as AI expands endpoints, and Ben's case for why we don't own Micron in size.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the reported two-phase US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dispose of enriched uranium, market reactions with oil dropping to the low $90s and the 10-year falling to 4.50%, Kevin Warsh's first comments as Fed Chair signaling reform, the WSJ piece on the vanishing equity risk premium, and Eli Lilly's VERVE-102 one-shot gene editing therapy showing up to 62% LDL cholesterol reduction in early trials as a potential challenger to Amgen's Repatha.

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Tom and Hannah discuss early signs of the Iran war, high oil prices, and interest rates weighing on growth with the AIA Architectural Billings Survey and Philly Fed Index softening, US-Iran peace talks progressing but stalling over the Strait of Hormuz tolls and nuclear enrichment, Kevin Warsh's swearing-in as Fed Chair at the White House, and new studies showing GLP-1 weight loss drugs may slow cancer tumor progression and lower mortality risk.

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Andrew and Tom discuss the US quantum computing grants going to IBM, Rigetti, and GlobalFoundries, and Nvidia's earnings call highlights including the Vera CPU opening a new $200 billion TAM with $20 billion in visible revenue this year, plus NVDA gaining inference market share against Amazon's Trainium and Google's TPUs thanks to frontier model partners like Perplexity, Cursor, Anthropic, TML, and Reflection.

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Ben and Tom discuss Trump's strong primary night with Burt Jones winning in Georgia and Gallrein beating Massie in Kentucky, Trump extending his Iran timeline beyond the prior 2-3 day window, and Target's better-than-expected Q1 results

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Google and Blackstone teaming up on a massive $25 billion AI cloud infrastructure play to challenge CoreWeave, alongside the high-profile rollout of 600 new generic drugs on the expanded TrumpRx platform with Mark Cuban and Amazon.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss NEE considering purchasing Dominion.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom Iran outlook and Trumps return from China.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Cisco's earnings and Trump's meeting with Xi.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's trip to China and PPI.

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Andrew and Ben discuss this morning's CPI data, the state of the housing market, and NFIB small business.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's rejection of Iran's demands ahead of his visit to China.

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Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the latest NFL streaming drama, Lime Scooters' IPO, and Trump's trip to China.

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Thomas and Tom discuss the insider trading scheme involving lawyers and an Iran update.

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Thomas and Tom discuss the price of memory and Nvidia's latest investment.

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Tom discusses Iran firing on US warships and Gamestop CEO Ryan Cohen's wild interview.

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Tom discusses his beef with Star Wars, Spirit's bankruptcy, and GameStop's bid for eBay.

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Andrew, Tom, and Thomas discuss Trump's Meeting with King Charles & Elon Musk testifying against OpenAI.

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Andrew, Tom, and Thomas discuss Powell's last meeting as chair & the White House blocking Anthropic's plan to expand Mythos.

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Tom and Thomas discuss the UAE dumping OPEC.

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Tom and Thomas discuss OpenAI's financial issues and state of prediction markets.

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Tom and Thomas discuss various earnings.

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Ben and Thomas discuss various earnings.

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Ben and Thomas discuss various earnings.

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Ben and Tom discuss Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Tim Cook stepping down.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this weekends news on the strait.

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Ben and Tom discuss tech world turnover and the week ahead.

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Ben and Tom discuss the New York luxury tax and various earnings.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss ASML earnings, Bessent's WSJ interview, and Trump seeing the end of the Iran war.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss PPI, Iran, and bank earnings.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Iran negotiations and various company news.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss CPI, the latest Howard Marks memo, and Sheinbaum does a 180 on fracking.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the market's reaction to the ceasefire.

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Ben and Tom discuss the Iran ceasefire.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss AI usage and Iran war update.

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Ben and Thomas discuss Trump's tweets from the weekend and Citrini's latest report.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's speech from last night.

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Andrew, Ben, Thomas, and Tom discuss Ben's travels, Trump's speech tonight, and covid bubbles bursting.

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Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss Trump's willingness to end the war, Hegseth's trading issue, and Unilever to combine its food business with McCormick.

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Andrew, Thomas, and Tom recap Sunbelt investor day and provide an update on Iran.

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Andrew and Tom discuss Tom's appearance at a conference yesterday, DHS funding, and Andrew issues an apology.

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Andrew gives his thoughts on Iran.

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Andrew and Tom discuss the US 15-point plan for Iran.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Iran and the DHS funding deal.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss airline travel issues, an update on Iran, and Zuckerberg's AI agent push.

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Ben and Tom recap the Atlanta CFA meeting, discuss bank deregulation, and FedEx earnings.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the potential end of the Iran war, again.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the potential end of the Iran war.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Fed's confusion with the current economic data, Nvidia's $1 Trillion sales claim, and the SEC's proposal to eliminate quarterly reporting.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Meta's layoffs, NY City estate tax, and Trump's recent Truths.

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Andrew and Tom discuss the Strait of Hormuz, PCE data, and Adobe earnings.

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Ben and Tom discuss the Hormuz still not open, trade probes, and CEO confidence.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this morning's CPI, energy costs, and an update on the Middle East.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump potentially ending the war and NFIB small business optimism.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's new leader, and Trump leaning towards boots on the ground.

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Ben and Tom discuss this morning's jobs data, the Iran War extension, and the week ahead.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss their takeaways from the First Trust Forum, ISM Services, and the Fed Beige Book.

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Andrew and Tom discuss yesterday's market, the Fed's refusal to cut, and an update on the Blackstone employee bail-in.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Iran, bonds selling off, and Blackstone private credit fund redemptions.

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Andrew and Tom discuss

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Andrew and Tom discuss Block's massive lay-off, Dell crushing earnings, and PPI coming in hotter than expected.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia earnings, the potential rebound in freight, and an update on bonds.

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Andrew and Ben discuss the SOTU highlights & yesterday's Consumer Confidence report.

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Ben and Tom discuss the Citrini Report's hit to stocks, JP Morgan investor day, and 10% tariffs taking effect.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the impact of the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs, Mexico cracking down on cartels, and an update on the WBD acquisition.

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On this episode of The Morning Market Briefing, we welcome Amy O'Dell, Founder and CEO of Jacob's Ladder. Jacob's Ladder, a nonprofit organization based in Roswell, provides therapeutic and educational support for individuals with neurodevelopmental challenges. Founded in 1998, the organization employs its unique Interpersonal Whole-Brain Model of Care to deliver specialized schooling from pre-K through 12th grade, individualized programs, caregiver training, and resources that empower children and young adults to reach their full potential. Please visit the link below if you would like to donate.

Donate: https://jacobsladderschool-bloom.kindful.com/?campaign=1303074
Website: https://thejacobsladdergroup.org/

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this morning's GDP data and issues surrounding private credit.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss yesterday's Fed minutes, some surprising earnings, and Trump's speech today in Georgia.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Japan's initial investments in the US, why US inflation may feel stickier relative to other countries, and Mamdani's budget proposal.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Elliot's stake in Norwegian, YTD bond performance, and Anthropic's plan for AI guardrails.

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Andrew & Tom discuss this morning's CPI data, yesterday's 30-year auction, and RELX earnings.

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Andrew & Tom discuss initial jobless claims data, McDonald's earnings, and Washington State advancing the millionaire's tax.

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Andrew & Tom discuss non-farm payrolls data & the odd collab to break up Big Medicine.

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Ben & Tom discuss Costco earnings, small business optimism, and Trump on Warsh.

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Ben & Tom discuss CPI ahead of Friday's release, Japan elections, and GLP-1 copycats.

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Ben & Tom discuss Howard Marks at the CFA Society, Stellantis cuts some EV vehicle products, and bitcoin gets blasted.

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Tom discusses Google earnings and Scott Bessent's testimony to the House.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss software companies getting smashed by AI, Fed policy, and Texas Instruments buying Silicon Labs.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the SpaceX–xAI merger, the India Trade deal, and Palantir earnings.

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Andrew and Ben discuss Korean stocks getting smashed, the potential government shutdown, and the AI funding mess.

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Andrew and Ben discuss Trump nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, PPI data, and Xi dismissing his top leaders.

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Andrew and Ben discuss the Fed's decision to keep rates steady, AI spending spree, and questions about gold.

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Andrew and Ben discuss who will replace Powell, Amazon's layoff email, and Trump's TACO-ing.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss rising shutdown risk, durable goods data, and the dollar’s recent weakness rumors.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Intel earnings and BOJ leaving rates unchanged.

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Ben and Tom discuss winter storm Fern, the Greenland U-turn, and an update on Lisa Cook and the Fed Chair.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Netflix earnings and recap last night's event.

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Ben and Fish discuss Trump's latest comments on Greenland and the market sell-off.

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Andrew and Ben discuss where to place your high-yield savings and "The Great Healthcare Plan."

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Saks filing for bankruptcy and bank earnings.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss mortgage applications ripping, November PPI, and Trump's latest on Greenland.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this morning's CPI data, yesterday's 10-year bond auction, and small business optimism.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the DOJ investigation into Jay Powell, Trump’s push to cap credit card interest rates, and Eli Lilly’s consideration of acquiring Abivax.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss this morning's ADP employment data, tariff refunds, and Trump's plan to buy $200b of mortgage bonds.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth about defense companies, Apple's card moving to JPMorgan, and Constellation reports soft alcohol demand.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss ADP Employment, Rubio's push to buy Greenland, and Mobileye acquiring Mentee.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia's Alpamayo announcement and ISM manufacturing.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump backing off on tariffs & Maduro's capture.

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Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss what surprised them in 2025 and what many people aren’t thinking about for 2026.

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Andrew and Ben discuss Meta's latest acquisition plans and the Dallas Fed survey.

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Ben provides an update on Ukraine peace talks and Nvidia's latest acquisition.

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Ben provides an update on geopolitics and Q3 GDP data. Today was our final stream on Zoom. Starting next Monday, the 29th, we’ll be streaming on YouTube. Link to our channel is below.

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Song: Last Christmas - Taylor Swift