Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro: Recent Episodes
BTC Media
Fed Watch is a weekly podcast with Bitcoin Magazine's Podcast Editor CK and Historian/Economist Ansel Lindner of Bitcoinand Markets.com.
Ck and Ansel interview the best analysts, traders, and thinks in both Macro economics and Bitcoin as well as give the audience their takes of important news and press conferences in the macro space.
This is the perfect podcast to learn about and stay on top of Bitcoin, Macro Economics, and the world at large.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Our podcast feed is changing to the Bitcoin Magazine feed! Subscribe here!
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK is back with us for a huge week in macro. We cover all the big events of the week like the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting and Chairman Powell’s comments, the US CPI data released on Tuesday, and finally, the big decision out of the European Central Bank about their policy changes. Of course we cover bitcoin as well, along with some other macro charts.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram (link) for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com (link) to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Episode specific links
NEW PODCAST FEED after this episode https://anchor.fm/bitcoin-magazine-po/
Ansel Lindner https://twitter.com/ansellindner
CK https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Slide deck: http://tiny.cc/3732vz
Bitcoin & Markets Telegram: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets
Powell press conference: https://youtu.be/Ho2iJXlcmR8
CPI data: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
ECB policy changes: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-ecb-hikes-50bps-will-begin-qt-march-raises-inflation-expectations
If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined once again by Nolan Bauerle, new host of Bitcoin Magazine Live. We spend a good amount of time going through my macro charts for the week, you can find them in this week’s slide deck. Next, we discussed the BIS report of the missing $80 trillion in some detail. Lastly, we reviewed China’s latest economic data and discussed the state of global shipping and where we think China is going.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram (link) for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com (link) to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Episode specific links
Ansel Lindner https://twitter.com/ansellindner
CK https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Slide deck: https://tinyurl.com/4vcy9av9
Bitcoin & Markets Telegram: https://t.me/bitcoinandmarkets
BIS report: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.pdf
China trade shrinks: https://apnews.com/article/business-china-asia-global-trade-economy-4d316f787cf4123981d47a3f5c78da7f
Global shipping shrinks: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/freight-rates-from-china-to-west-coast-down-90percent-as-trade-falls-rapidly.html
If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast like no other. We question narratives and schools of thought, trying to form our own understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined by Nolan Bauerle, new host of Bitcoin Magazine Live. Our main topics of discussion are Jerome Powell and his Brookings Institute speech, and the growing conflict in Turkey. I had prepared some charts (you can see them in the linked slide deck above), but was not able to get to them due to time constraints. It’s a wide ranging discussion about societal signaling, monetary policy and even demographics.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I celebrate Thanksgiving by telling what we're thankful for in Bitcoin. Our main topics include the bitcoin chart and review of the FTX and GBTC story. Next, we drill down on the Fed’s recently released FOMC minutes, mixed messaging from board members and likelihood of policy direction. The last topic for the day is China, starting with the riots at Foxconn and then a general discussion about their demographics.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover our reactions to the FTX debacle, the latest CPI numbers out of the US, the new CBDC pilot by the Federal Reserve and banks, and touch on the G20 meeting in Bali. We run out of time at the end and don’t cover it as well as I’d like to, but perhaps I’ll remedy it with a supplemental episode before next week.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Link mentioned in the podcast: Jason Choi’s definitive FTX thread
THIS EPISODE’S SPONSORS:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover Jerome Powell and the FOMC policy decision in depth, quoting the Federal Reserve itself, Powell, and other financial experts. Of course, we give our own opinions on the matter, as well. After Fed Day content we move onto charts, starting with bitcoin and the dollar, and moving onto Treasury securities rates. Lastly, we discuss the diesel shortage brewing on the US east coast.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Check out the Bitcoin Magazine products presented during the Podcast:
Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/
Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover extremely important updates for the future of the global economy. First, we talk about the Bitcoin breakout. Then continue rolling through several more macro charts, including currencies, US Treasury yields, European natural gas prices, and finally freight rates, both bulk dry and container rates. Lastly, we listen to several clips from a China expert on what happened at the 20th Party Congress, and what it means for the future of China.
Here is the original video source of the clips.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover a large chunk of the ongoing macro news. First, we update the situation in the UK Gilt market. Then swing over the China to cover developments from the 20th Party Congress, the real estate market, and the general investment climate. Lastly, we discuss the European energy crisis and current storage situation.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Clipped down episodes: Fed Watch Clips YT
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Slide deck for episode
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover a large chunk of the ongoing macro news. First, the NY Fed’s Williams speech on inflation, then the UN report demanding central banks change course, and finally the OPEC+ decision to cut quotas by 2 million barrels per day (mbd).
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I got the privilege to sit down with David Lawant of Bitwise to discuss macro and its relation to Bitcoin. We cover Bitwise and David’s take on the current Bitcoin market, price, and ETF likelihood. On the macro side, we cover the UK emergency monetary policy change and China’s pivot on the Belt and Road lending practices.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Special guest: David Lawant
Slide deck for episode
In this episode, CK and I got the privilege to sit down with Andreas Steno, editor at Real Vision, co-host of the Macro Trading Floor podcast, and author of Steno Signals substack. Our discussion centers around the energy situation in Europe, but we start with talking about the Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate hike. Andreas has extensive knowledge of Bitcoin and his podcast Macro Trading Floor is hosted through Blockworks, which means we also got to pick his brain about his thoughts on the Bitcoin market.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Special guest: Andreas Steno
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Slide deck
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. In each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I get down and dirty in the August CPI data, some shocking Chinese economic data, and we talk about bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Slide deck
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I examine the current state of the Bitcoin market, the state of panic in Europe including some myths about the EU/Russia conflict, and finally read through an article about how China is really a Marxist country and proud of that fact.
Join my telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Slide deck
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I break down some charts, including bitcoin, the dollar, European energy, and US gasoline futures. Next, I read through a couple articles and address the complicated financial situation in China. Lastly, we examine what the big deal is with Zoltan Pozsar’s latest dispatch about “Chussia”.
Join my telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Slide deck
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I revisit the Pakistan problems, check out the bitcoin chart and currencies, discuss what’s coming up for the Federal Reserve, and then dive into the European Central Bank’s most recent report on CBDCs.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I dive into the surprise rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and read through some of Jamie Dimon’s recent leaked comments about the global economy and geopolitics.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT and Rumble videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, giving market updates on bitcoin, the dollar (DXY), and the Hong Kong dollar. Next, we examine the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, and ask the question, is it the next Sri Lanka. Lastly, we discuss the Taiwan - China situation and I read several important snippets, one from Chinese foriegn minister Wang Yi and the other from think tank expert Wang Wen.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin’s rebellious nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode of Fed Watch, CK and I go through several charts, using them to springboard into different topics. We cover the bitcoin chart, the dollar, the Hong Kong dollar, US Treasury yields, and energy charts like oil, gasoline and natural gas.
Audio listeners can follow along with the slides here.
All images are sourced to bitcoinandmarkets.com.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guests: Q_liketheletter and Chris Alaimo
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I’m joined by Q and Chris of the live stream crew to talk about the recession vs not-a-recession vs depression debate. I also dive into understanding the temporary effects of fiscal spending by governments and the brick wall facing the global economy, demonstrated through yield curves. We finish up with a Q & Ansel (Q&A) with questions from the guys and my community.
Don’t forget to check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube. Liking and sharing YT videos is the best way for us to reach new people. Thank you!
You can find the slide deck for this episode here.
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I catch up on the week, go through an update on the evolving Chinese financial crisis, talk about why “fiat” money today should rightly be called credit-based money and the side effects of that fact, and lastly, we dive into the bitcoin chart and so forth.
You can access this episode’s slide deck of charts here or below, depending on the medium where you are viewing these show notes.
Please check out the Fed Watch Clips channel on YouTube, subscribe and share.
China First up, is the situation in the Chinese economy. They are facing some major issues in their real estate market, economy and banking system. Currently, 28 of the top 100 real estate developers have defaulted on or restructured their debts. There is a growing “mortgage boycott”, where purchasers of unbuilt housing units in projects that are now delayed due to the pandemic, developer financial situation, and zero Covid policy, have refused to pay their mortgages. It started with 20 projects and has since grown to 230 projects.
The boycott accounts for roughly 100,000 households refusing to pay their mortgages. This amounts to 0.1-0.5% of all outstanding mortgages and 1% of outstanding mortgage value.
The rhetoric around this mortgage crisis is eerily similar to that in the US in 2007. Excuses like it is a small number of mortgages, effects are contained, and others are being used.
As a result of the developer and mortgage problems, small and medium-sized banks are running into solvency issues. Chinese banks have $9 trillion in exposure to real estate and it accounts for 20% of bank assets. You can see if there were a problem with perpetually falling home prices, it could very quickly cause a solvency issue for banks as well. Indeed, that is exactly what we are seeing.
Lower your time preference and lock in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount!
https://b.tc/conference/2023
Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store!
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/
#bitcoin #bitcoinmagazine #money #btc #crypto #cryptocurrencies #cryptocurrency #cryptonews #buybitcoin #shouldibuybitcoin #fedatch
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Guest: Joe Carlasare
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a true rebellious bitcoin nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I sit down for an interview with commercial litigator and co-host of the Inside Bitcoin podcast, Joe Carlasare. Joe is a no nonsense analyst of bitcoin, the bond market, and monetary dynamics. He is known for saying that all our models for bitcoin are dead, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to get him on and hash out some new narratives for bitcoin, especially being that we see eye-to-eye on many things in macro. Joe is also appearing in an upcoming series with Bitcoin TINA and CK about the future path and new models for bitcoin valuation, which should be out very soon on Bitcoin Magazine.
Joe and I start by breaking down the yield curve and the importance of the recent inversions. With the 10-year US Treasury yield falling under the 2-year, the curve is “officially” inverted, and signals that the deepest most sophisticated market in the world is pricing in an economic downturn. In other words, there is a landmine in the near future that we can glimpse by looking at the yield curve.
We also discussed the impotence of the Federal Reserve and cult-like mythology surrounding the Federal Reserve. Joe is an adherent to the Eurodollar framework of the financial system, and as such does not believe the central banks are central to their economies. What we have today is a bank centered system, and the mechanism of central bank policy is through expectation management, not cold hard supply and demand as the mythology would have us believe.
We have a wide-ranging discussion on commodities, the future path of QE and CPI, Japanification, and the dollar shortage. We finally arrive at trying to form some new narratives in bitcoin that will be sustainable in the monetary reality we are experiencing.
This is a great episode and I hope to get Joe back on so we can dig down deeper into these new narratives.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I go through what’s coming up for the Fed, tons of macro charts, the spike in Credit Suisse CDS, BIS news about making bitcoin a reserve asset banks can hold, and take some Q&A from Twitter.
You can access the slide deck with charts here. Enjoy.
We will be back to our regular time next week, Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. Mark your calendars!
Links More details BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed102
Slide deck with charts https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1Kz6NiwJaI9fhRN6vnLPnf3uNVEgQ3ssSx2h_zW3sdvo/edit?usp=sharing
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners.
Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, I tackle a question CK put to me in FED 100, namely, why does the Euro face fragmentation risk and the dollar doesn’t? My answer on the last show was sub-par, so I thought I’d take it up again, this time with more nuance. When evaluating the dollar’s fragmentation risk, we can look at it from an internal perspective of fragmentation within the 50 States, or an external perspective of a fragmentation of the global dollar system. I answer the question in this episode from both angles, and also explain how bitcoin becomes a “must have” money in the future.
We livestream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3:00 P.M. Eastern time. Mark your calendars!
Links Here is some further reading on internal differences:
Academic paper https://sci-hub.ru/10.1257/aer.103.3.125
Associated LSE blog post https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/08/26/the-us-may-show-the-eu-the-way-forward-on-fiscal-integration/
Historic defense/security costs https://eh.net/encyclopedia/military-spending-patterns-in-history/
Fiscal politics in the Euro Area https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/wp1718.ashx
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed100
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I cover developments in Japan in regards to Yield Curve Control, in the US in regards to growth and inflation forecasts, and in Europe in regards to the concern about fragmentation. At the end of the episode, we celebrate the 100th episode of Fed Watch by reviewing some of the guests and calls we have made throughout the show's history.
Big Trouble in Japan The economic troubles in Japan are legendary at this point. They have suffered through several lost decades of low growth and low inflation, addressed by the best monetary policy tools of the day, by some of the best experts in economics (maybe that was the mistake). None of it has worked, but let's take a minute to review how we got here.
Japan entered their recession/depression back in 1991 after their giant asset bubble burst. Since that time, Japanese economic growth has been averaging roughly 1% a year, with low unemployment, and very low dynamism. It's not negative GDP growth, but it's the bare minimum to have an economic pulse.
To address these issues, Japan became the first major central bank to launch Quantitative Easing (QE) in 2001. This is where the central bank, Bank of Japan (BOJ) would buy government securities from the banks in an attempt to correct any balance sheet problems, clearing the way for those banks to lend (aka print money).
That first attempt at QE failed miserably, and in fact, caused growth to fall from 1.1% down to 1%. The Japanese were convinced by Western academic economists, like Paul Krugman, who claimed the BOJ failed because they had not "credibly promised to be irresponsible". They must change the inflation/growth expectations of the people by shocking them into inflationary worry.
Round two of monetary policy in 2013 was dubbed QQE (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing). In this strategy, the BOJ would cause "shock and awe" at their profligacy, buying not only government securities but other assets like ETFs on the Tokyo stock market. Of course, this failed, too.
Round three was the addition of Yield Curve Control (YCC) in 2016, where the BOJ would peg the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) to a range of ±10 bps. In 2018, that range was expanded to ±20 bps, and in 2021 to ±25 bps, where we are today.
The YCC Fight As the world is now dealing with massive price rises due to the economic hurricane, the government bond yield curve in Japan is pressing upward, testing the BOJ's resolve. As of now, the ceiling has been breached several times, but it hasn't completely burst through.
The BOJ now owns more than 50% of all government bonds, on top of their huge share of ETFs on their stock exchange. At this rate, the entire Japanese economy is going to be owned by the BOJ soon.
The Yen is also crashing against the dollar. Below is the exchange rate, how many yen to a US dollar.
Federal Reserve DSGE Forecasts Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, went in front of Congress this week and said that a US recession was not his "base case", despite nearly all economic indicators crashing in the last month.
Here we take a look at the Fed's own DSGE model.
The New York Fed DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model has been used to forecast the economy since 2011, and its forecasts have been made public continuously since 2014.
The current version of the New York Fed DSGE model is a closed economy, representative agent, rational expectations model (although we deviate from rational expectations in modeling the impact of recent policy changes, such as average inflation targeting, on the economy). The model is medium scale, in that it involves several aggregate variables such as consumption and investment, but is not as detailed as other, larger, models.
As you can see below, the model is predicting this year's Q4 to Q4 GDP to be negative, as well as the 2023 GDP. That checks with my own estimation and expectation that the US will experience a prolonged but slight recession, while the rest of the world experiences a deeper recession.
In the below chart, I point out the return to the post Great Financial Crisis (GFC) norm of low growth and low inflation, a norm shared by Japan by the way.
European Anti-fragmentation Cracks Only a week after we showed watchers and listeners of Fed Watch ECB President Christine Lagarde's frustration at the repeated anti-fragmentation questions, EU heavyweight, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, comes through like a bull in a china shop.
I read parts of an article from Bloomberg, where Rutte claims it's up to Italy, not the ECB, to contain credit spreads.
What's the big worry about fragmentation anyway? The European Monetary Union (EMU, aka Eurozone), is a monetary union without a fiscal union. The ECB policy must serve different countries with different indebtedness. This means that ECB policy on interest rates will affect each country within the union differently, and more indebted countries like Italy, Greece and Spain will suffer a greater burden of rising rates.
The worry is that these credit spreads will lead to another European Debt Crisis 2.0, and perhaps even political fractures as well. Countries could be forced to leave the Eurozone and/or the European Union itself over this issue.
Lookback on 100 Episodes The last part of this episode is spent looking back at some of the predictions and great calls we've made. It didn't go according to my plan, however, and we got lost in some weeds. But overall, we were able to highlight the success of our unique theories put forward by this show in the bitcoin space.
- Strong dollar
- Bitcoin and USD stablecoin dominance
- US's relative decentralization makes it a better fit for bitcoin
- Bearish on China and Europe
We also highlight some specific calls that have been spot on, which you'll have to watch the episode to hear.
I wanted to highlight these things to show the success of our contrarian views, despite being unpopular amongst bitcoiners. This show is an important voice in the bitcoin scene because we are prodding and poking the narratives to find the truth of the global monetary system.
Links More on Japan's YCC trouble https://archive.ph/zcIOW
Federal Reserves DSGE model https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/dsge#/interactive
Mark Rutte on fragmentation https://archive.ph/K6nHI
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Listen To This Episode: Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS
Charts for episode can be found on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed99
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, CK and I listen and react to highlights from this month’s two central bank press conferences, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde. Central banks are one of the most misunderstood institutions in our modern world. Many analysts simply tell you what the Fed or the ECB thinks and what they do to disrupt the global economy, but on our show, we like to give you primary source material from which you can start to form your own educated opinion.
We live stream most of our shows on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel on Tuesdays at 3pm eastern. Mark your calendars!
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s highlights and reaction Chairman Powell’s comments were highlighted by a few narratives. These are simply what they say they are doing, not our analysis.
- Their primary concern is inflation fighting
- They will be adaptive to new data
- A tight employment market threatens to exacerbate inflation
- They cannot affect the supply side, so they will tamp down demand to bring down prices
The main metric guiding the Federal Reserve’s course of rate hikes is CPI and “inflation” expectations. There are several ways to measure this, the Fed uses consumer surveys. This is a critical distinction between surveys and market-derived expectations, because surveys will not distinguish sources of price increases where the market-derived measures will do that.
Below is the Fed’s survey of inflation expectations. You can see, the median prediction is above 8%.
However, the market-derived data, namely the 5 and 10-year Breakevens and the 5y-5y Forward, are showing inflation expectations around 2.5%. What accounts for this huge difference? It is because the market-derived data is measuring actual money printing, or in other words, actual inflation. The survey data on the other hand is measuring generic price increases which are much more highly affected by supply shocks; in this case, self-imposed supply shocks.
ECB President Lagarde highlights and reaction We also listen to a few clips of President Lagarde’s press conference. Here we get a flavor for the ECB’s formative narratives.
- Inflation is the fault of Covid and Putin
- Their governing council has expertly formulated a journey to normality
- They will begin to raise rates and tighten their balance sheet in July
- They are dedicated to “anti-fragmentation”, or in other words, avoiding a European Debt Crisis 2.0 and keeping the Eurozone together
- They have all powerful tools
The ECB faces a different challenge than the Federal Reserve. The ECB must raise rates with some more indebted countries, already with anti-Euro parties growing, facing uneven effects, as we can see with credit spreads in Italy for example.
Links
Powell’s speech https://youtu.be/IojU0hD3A_A
Lagarde and the ECB https://youtu.be/d_utpAxGMYo
Reuters article https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-hold-unscheduled-meeting-discuss-market-rout-2022-06-15/
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I get to sit down with Tone Vays, a true bitcoiner and long time price and macro analyst in Bitcoin. Our discussion ranges from the current conditions, to Bitcoin cycles, to broader macro topics including the state of Europe, Euro, and US politics. You can follow Tone on Twitter, instagram and YouTube.
You can find the charts for this episode on BitcoinandMarkets.com/fed98. And watch the live stream on Bitcoin Magazine’s channel.
Current Bitcoin Market Conditions In the first segment of the podcast, Tone talks about the psychological state of the Bitcoin market. Paraphrasing:
“I was around for the last two bear markets. 2013 was the classic bubble chart, you were mentally prepared for what’s to come. 2017, again, the ICOs, it was an unreasonable exponential rise, so you were mentally prepared. I wasn’t mentally prepared for this one. Because, when the top came in April 2021, we had an incredible amount of good news. Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey leaving Twitter to go all in on Bitcoin with Square (Block), El Salvador, then El Salvador buying bitcoin.
“That turned into a sell the news event. 50% correction, no big deal. Everyone was mentally fine with it. Then, this is where it’s all about your mental state. When we went back and broke that top, in November, that was THE breakout. Everyone thought we were going higher, I thought we were going higher. That fakeout in November was mentally brutal. We crashed back the $30,000 low, broke down to $20,000, and over the last 3-6 months people have been very very concerned.
“This prolonged move has made people tighten their belts. Mentally, they feel like they were cheated and don’t think bitcoin should be at these lows. Bitcoin was built for this world we are seeing right now with all the uncertainty. They are stealing bank accounts from not just individuals, like in Canada, but from sovereign countries. Bitcoin was built for this, but the price keeps going down. People are starting to throw in the towel. Everyone is saying lower, lower, lower. This is where I have to believe that the majority is always wrong.”
Bitcoin Cycles I asked Tone about bitcoin valuation models and 4-year cycles, whether they are all broken and if we need to find a new model.
He says he thinks models always fail. Stock-to-flow is theoretically correct in Tone’s mind, but it cannot be successfully used as a technical indicator. As for the 4-year halving cycle, Tone believes that it is partly due to hype and partly due to actual supply shocks.
That is my position here on Fed Watch as well. It has its own hype cycle, completely separate from the overall bitcoin hype. Kind of similar to how altcoins try to hype their hard fork upgrades, bitcoin accomplishes that naturally through the halving.
However, I think the hype is lessening with each cycle, along with the supply shock aspect. That is why I now believe we have a 2-year cycle of sorts. A smaller effect from the halving, but which still causes an echo a couple years later.
Tone insightfully points out that there is much less of a clear distinction between bull and bear markets. Price action in the years 2020 and 2021 do not lend themselves to a clear dividing line. Going forward therefore, it will become harder to delineate these cycles.
Europe Crisis and Global Macro We started running up on our hard time limit before we got into the juicy stuff. So, hopefully we can have Tone back on in a few months to continue this discussion. But we did get Tone’s opinions on Europe and the Euro. Paraphrasing again:
“I will say that I have a very low opinion of Western Europe. It’s nice, you go there it’s safe, you can walk around the street, you feel fairly safe. It has remnants of collapsing capitalist society, as they hand over all power to the World Economic Forum. I believe that the WEF is too liberal socialists organization. They have too much control over politics. To quote Klaus Schwab, “we have penetrated the cabinets.” And they have.
I think the path of the WEF is a very very dangerous path, and I short the future of Western countries that buy into its power. That’s why I’m very bearish on Europe. I think the common currency will break up.”
We talk about so much more, from bitcoin’s correlation to stocks and altcoins, to monetary policy. This is one of my favorite episodes we’ve ever done on Fed Watch, so it is definitely a must listen.
Check out Tone’s twitter and YouTube channel.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Supply Chains by the Numbers - FED 97
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I discuss supply and demand, demand destruction, supply chain bottlenecks, shipping and inventory in the US. I take a look at a few representative charts you can find below, including lumber futures, lithium futures, Baltic Dry Index, 40-foot container rates, US inventory glut, and others.
Demand Destruction The below simple graph shows supply versus demand during a supply shock and follow on demand destruction. What we are about to see in the US is a huge spike in demand destruction, so the demand curve will shift to the left. This will cause a dramatic lowering of prices and shrinking of the economy.
Don’t be worried though, because most people can’t afford to keep the economy (demand) at current levels, and a lowering of demand will allow people to reallocate and get into a better place.
Supply Chain Charts These are a few charts I use to show the relaxation of supply chain problems, and to demonstrate that prices will normalize.
Lumber is coming down.
Lithium is a market that combines many disparate aspects of the economy right now, all unique affected in this crisis: supply chains since it is mined mainly in Australia, Chile, and China; semiconductors since batteries are used in electronics; and electric cars whose demand is affected by oil prices and globalists agendas. As you can see, lithium prices are coming down for the first time in over a year.
The Baltic Dry Index ($BDI) is the rate for bulk raw materials like steel and coal. It too, is coming down, and far past the peak of mid-2021.
Freightos is an index for 40-foot container shipping rates. It is falling off a cliff, despite the China lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing.
Inventory Glut The following charts can be found in a recent post by Jeff Snider on Alhambra Partners blog. It shows the unprecedented increase in inventories that has occurred in the US over the last 6 months. It is already starting to affect retailers like Target, who this week announced stopping purchasing orders and slashing prices to fight glutted inventory.
What happens when demand softens (as it has been) and inventories start to get liquidated. Prices will fall dramatically.
This was the largest and fastest increase in inventories on record in the US. Compared to other periods of big inventory gains, like 2003-2005, which was a 7% increase over 20 months, this spike is 11.5% in only 6 months.
Lastly, I read through an article from FreightWaves which details the armageddon that is faced right now by shippers.
“This steady decline in volumes from China to the U.S. has also put significant downward pressure on spot rates from the demand side. As capacity remained relatively consistent in the first few weeks post-lockdown (March 28 onward), the drop in volumes caused a decline in both the Freightos Baltic Daily Index and the Drewry World Container Index spot rates from China/East Asia to the U.S. West Coast (down 41% per FEU month-over-month [m/m] – $9,630), as well as from China/East Asia to the U.S. East Coast (down 36% per FEU m/m – $11,907).”
Those numbers should perk anyone up, 41% month-over-month. Recession is coming, meaning tightening by the Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and easing is just around the corner again. That is very good for bitcoin.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Links US Import demand is dropping off a cliff https://www.freightwaves.com/news/us-import-demand-drops-off-a-cliff
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, Christian and I sit down with Dylan LeClair, Head of Market Research at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Each week, he and Sam Rule, write nearly daily updates for subscribers, and once a month they release a large bitcoin market report. That is what we are covering for the most part in today’s episode, Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s May 2022 Report.
You can find the slide deck we use for this episode here, or you can see all the charts at the end of this post.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Market Cycle Before we get into the awesome charts brought by Dylan, I want to get an idea of where he sees bitcoin in its market cycle timing. I ask, somewhat facetiously, if we are in a bear market, because we are definitely not in a typical 80-90% drawdown.
Dylan responds by saying we are in a classic bear market, not necessarily a classic bitcoin bear market. He points out that the upswing of this cycle didn’t have the classic parabolic blow-off top we’ve seen previously in bitcoin, as well as there being more technical and fundamental support in the mid-$20k’s up to $30,000, so drawdown pressure will also likely be limited. LeClair also adds that the Average User Cost Basis was hit by the wick to the recent lows. All in all, there is significant support under the price, and it remains to be seen if there is enough bear momentum to break to new lows.
Lastly, on the market cycle timing questions, Dylan points out a very underappreciated market development, that being the collateral type on exchanges has mostly switched from bitcoin in previous cycles, to now being stablecoins like Tether and USDC. In other words, the dominant trading pairs and cash deposits on exchanges have changed from bitcoin to stablecoins. In the past, the most important trading pair for any altcoin was versus BTC, that has changed to being versus a stablecoin like USDT. This is a monumental shift in market dynamics and will likely lead to much more stable prices for bitcoin, because less bitcoin will be forced to liquidate in the hyper-speculative shitcoin bubbles.
Bitcoin Magazine Pro Charts “This is Coinbase spot volume, being the dominant American exchange, and the Perp [perpetual futures] volume aggregated over a bunch of different derivatives exchanges. What we can see is various volume spikes. Historically, when bitcoin is trading hands in that size, signals some sort of market top or bottom, some significant change in market structure.” - Dylan LeClair
The next chart shows the difference in market structure due to stablecoins. Back in the summer of 2021 sell off, Dylan says that 70% of the derivative market was still collateralized by bitcoin, today, it is much much smaller than that. Therefore, we should expect there to be fewer liquidations in bitcoin when shitcoin bubbles pop, and that’s exactly what we see.
What is great about the Bitcoin Magazine Pro newsletters is they not only look at the bitcoin market but also how macro could be affecting bitcoin. The next two charts are about CPI and interest rates. Dylan does a great job breaking these down during the podcast.
I ask Dylan the required question about his thinking on Fed monetary policy, and he focuses his analysis around real interest rates. He says real rates will have to say negative in order to erode the massive global debt burden. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes even to 3.5%, real rates will have to stay negative, meaning the CPI will have to stay above that.
Next up is CK’s favorite indicator, the Mayer Multiple, or the 200-day moving average price divided by current price. When the price is below the 200-day, this ratio is below 1, and has historically been a good way to time the market.
One of the most dense informational charts on Bitcoin Magazine Pro is up next, and that is Reserve Risk.
“The Reserve Risk chart basically weighs Hodler conviction, whether strong or weak, with price.”
Our last chart for the day is Realized Price, and this is Dylan’s favorite. It is a great way to strip out much of the noise and volatility of the bitcoin price, and concentrate on the trend.
“One of the cool things about the transparency of this network is, we can see when every single bitcoin has ever moved, or was ever mined. We can also [assign each UTXO a price of when it last moved] to come with what we call Realized Price. [...] We can see when everyone is underwater on average.”
Bitcoin Regulation from Senator Lummis At the end of the show we wrap up with a discussion on the recently proposed draft legislation by Senator Lummis, that outlines a new framework for bitcoin and what it calls “digital assets”. In fact, they don’t use the term bitcoin at all in the draft, or Ethereum, Blockchain, or even cryptocurrency.
Suffice it to say, we tease out some opinions from Dylan and we go back and forth with the live stream crew, but you’ll have to listen to get that whole insightful discussion! We dive into the effects on the bitcoin market, exchanges, and a future bitcoin spot ETF!
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we focus on important macro charts. We cover Bitcoin’s chart, currencies like the dollar, the euro, the Hong Kong dollar, and gold, and energy commodities. We don’t have time to get to all the charts I prepared, because the live show has time constraints. I will attempt to get a Part 2 out this week, to cover the rest of my commodity charts, as well as supply chains and shipping costs. You can find the slide deck of charts here.
Other topics covered in today’s episode include Biden and Powell’s meeting yesterday, where I try to flesh out the importance of this Wall Street (Powell) vs Globalists (Biden) showdown; and we get into a couple of things from Davos last week, particularly the Kissinger comments about Ukraine.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Currencies First currency up is Bitcoin. I discuss the recent pop in price on Memorial Day in the US, and how it is simultaneous with a growing bullish divergence in the indicators.
However, I also go back in time to roughly one year ago, when there was a very similar situation. In June 2021, there was a bullish divergence in these two indicators and a breakout of a descending wedge. That move was a fake out, cut short by the Grayscale (GBTC) unlock wave in July. The current situation is similar on the chart, but not similar in the fundamentals. I just wanted to point out a previous example where a breakout like this week failed.
I make an effort to dislodge the bitcoin rise = dollar collapse false narrative here. The dollar and bitcoin can rise together due to deflationary pressures pushing people to cash and away from counterparty risk.
Next up is the dollar. On the live stream, I show the following chart and discuss how we could be headed for a new higher range on the dollar. Perhaps, we see another 5-7 years of the DXY in a range of 100-110, kind of like how it jumped into the 90-100 range in 2015.
For many who don’t like the DXY because it is too narrow (Euro 57.6%, Yen 13.6%, and Pound 11.9%), I provide a chart of the trade-weighted dollar that includes 30+ currencies including Yuan and Mexican peso.
In the below chart, we see the same consolidation beginning, but the high that the dollar achieved (excluding the corona crash highs) is a new high. I think this symbolizes a stair step function higher for the trade-weighted dollar as well.
Remember, a strong dollar is the Fed failing and it also provides massive stress to the rest of the world’s economy.
Source: FRED
The Euro is nearly the inverse of the DXY. It also shows a recent breakout, but in this case downward. If the dollar rally is to consolidate before heading higher, the Euro is going to consolidate before heading lower. One thing is for sure, the Euro has broken its two decade support trend line, it’s in big trouble of crashing much lower.
The next two charts are of the Hong Kong Dollar versus the US dollar. There is a peg in place that is plainly obvious on the first chart; it is a range between 7.75 and 7.85. Recently, the exchange rate has raced to the top of this pegged range, signaling massive dollar pressure in the Asian economies like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. The dollar squeeze rapidly set in starting this year.
The second chart of the Hong Kong dollar is a close up of the daily timeframe. The peg was defended successfully this time, by the authorities selling US dollars and buying HK dollars, but the big question is do they have enough reserves to continue defending this peg for the rest of the year, like in 2018?
The HK authorities publish their reserve data, so we can get a clue to the severity of their predicament. At the end of April, prior to the peg experiencing its greatest pressure, their reserves stood at $465.7 billion, $16 billion less than March.
The last currency we look at is part currency and part commodity, gold. It has been hard being a gold bug for the last 11 years. Currently, the gold price is below the 2011 high of $1920, sitting at $1840 at the time of recording. Imagine, holding for 11 years and losing money despite the narrative of money printing. Your choice at that point would be either abandon your faulty inflation dogma or go crazy on conspiracy theories. That sums up the gold community at this point in my opinion.
Energy Commodities Moving onto commodities, on this episode I only have a chance to cover two charts. The first is Brent crude (UK crude price in orange) and WTI crude (US crude price in blue). They often are extremely correlated, with a slight premium on European Brent.
I wanted to cover this chart today, because of the headlines about the 6th round of EU sanctions on Russian oil. It is an absolute joke. As you can see on the chart, the orange line actually drops on the day the theatrical sanctions were announced.
My thesis for oil prices is as follows. Global demand is collapsing faster than oil supply. Recent elevated prices starting in March are due to the Russia/Ukraine situation causing market uncertainty, and are very overbought. The price of oil will begin to fall soon, lowering prices and CPI, and coinciding with a growth slowdown. This is not a stagflation scenario, it is a deflationary depression scenario after a temporary spike in prices.
Natural gas futures in Europe (TTF1!) support my conclusion. They have been radically elevated, far above rational market fundamentals apart from sanctions on Russia. They have refused to be affected by successive rounds of sanctions, telling us that these price levels are mainly due to people’s worries, not market fundamentals. Once those worries go away (the end of the Ukraine situation becoming more clear) prices will adjust downward quickly.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, we get interactive with the livestream team, talking about the history of Davos and the World Economic Forum, as well as getting into some Q&A about my Federal Reserve predictions.
This week was a slightly slower news cycle in macro and bitcoin, so I took the opportunity to begin a new series of discussing the history of important international institutions, like central banks, the IMF, and this week the World Economic Forum. The history portion take up about 50% of the show this week, and the rest is the probing Q&A mentioned above.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. Each episode we discuss current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currency matters.
Beginnings of Davos and the World Economic Forum Davos is the name and place for the yearly meeting of the World Economic Forum. Originally called the European Management Forum, it was founded in 1971 by a business professor in Geneva, the infamous Klaus Schwab. That should be a familiar year to bitcoiners, because it is the same year President Nixon took the US off the remnant of the gold standard.
At first, Davos was a small conference of European businessmen discussing Klaus Schwab’s ideas of “stakeholder capitalism''. Compared to unbridled capitalism, this new stakeholder idea expanded the ethical duty of the corporation from serving customers and shareholders to also serving employees and suppliers in a socially responsible way. Schwab took this idea further down the slippery slope outlining an ethical duty to the community and “society”, as well.
Shareholder capitalism is simply a subtle way to make capitalism more socialist.
In 1987, the European Management Forum changed its name to the World Economic Forum and its yearly meeting to Davos.
Achievements of Davos One would expect an institution as famous and well-regarded as the World Economic Forum would have many achievements to its name. However, it is a very short list, even after 50 years! It claims a hand in stopping a Turkish/Greek war in 1987, a role in German reunification, and helping to end apartied in South Africa by hosting a handshake between Nelson Mandella and Frederik de Klerk in 1992. And that’s about it. Recently, they have claimed some victories on the environmentalism front, too.
Then what has the WEF been up to all these years? This is where it gets interesting.
In 2004, Klaus Schwab created the Forum of Young Global Leaders. It is a program that graduates roughly 100 rising young leaders from around the world who are destined to high offices, either in government, business or culture. The program boasts 1400 alumni that include Presidents and Prime Ministers, along with some of the wealthiest, most influential people in the world, like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg.
These young leaders are indoctrinated into the WEF’s brand of Marxism, which you will commonly hear called “globalism”, the modern incarnation of stakeholder capitalism. You know something is pushing a global Marxist agenda when you hear terms like, “socially responsible”, “global governance”, “climate action”, and “management” of all sorts.
Covid and The Great Reset Covid-19 gave the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab the break they were waiting for. He rapidly released his new book called the Great Reset, making headlines around the world. If you didn’t know about the WEF prior to Covid, you do now.
The Great Reset is a call for a complete remaking of our world along the lines of stakeholder capitalism and the WEF’s brand of Marxism. Its famous marketing tagline is, “You will own nothing and be happy.” Yet again, a conspiracy theory becomes a conspiracy fact.
“As we enter a unique window of opportunity to shape the recovery, this initiative will offer insights to help inform all those determining the future state of global relations, the direction of national economies, the priorities of societies, the nature of business models and the management of a global commons. Drawing from the vision and vast expertise of the leaders engaged across the Forum’s communities, the Great Reset initiative has a set of dimensions to build a new social contract that honours the dignity of every human being.” - WEF
Ideological Connections Klaus Schwab has a deep Marxist past that starts with Father Câmara from South America. He was invited to speak at the 1974 meeting of the then European Management Forum, and in that speech, Father Câmara called for wealth distribution in very clear language. He also became the first in a string of ‘Liberation Theology’ priests to speak at the meeting over the years.
Câmara was a well-known revolutionary Marxist and persona non grata to many governments, but also the person whom Schwab called his ‘spiritual father’. His influence was much more broad than just the WEF. Câmara also mentor to Paulo Freire, author of Pedagogy of the Oppressed, the third most cited book in the social sciences and underpins modern ‘Identity Marxism’ that has infiltrated Western schools. A third disciple of Câmara is Pope Francis, known in some circles as the Marxist Pope.
“If one person lacks what is necessary to live with dignity, it is because another person is detaining it. [...] the right to private property can only be considered a secondary natural right, derived from the principle of the universal destination of created goods.” - Pope Francis, emphasis added
What we have here is the World Economic Forum playing a role in a large scale Marxist attack on our society. The three disciples of Câmara, one being Klaus Schwab, play major roles in education, religion and business.
World Economic Forum on Stablecoins Before we move on to the Q&A segment of the show, I outline a few times the WEF has spoken about bitcoin. They are very much against bitcoin mining and often have levied attacks against it.
In November of last year, they produced a series of white papers about stablecoins and CBDCs. These halfway steps are of course the WEF’s preferred way to appear to embrace bitcoin’s revolution, while not really embracing anything new. CBDC’s in particular are a wonderful way for the WEF and likeminded globalists to co opt the bitcoin revolution and use it to increase their own power and influence.
Q&A To wrap up the show, the guys from the livestream team, Chris and Q, ask several questions about the Federal Reserve and the US economic outlook for the next few months. It’s a great segment and allows me to flesh out my macro predictions. You’ll have to listen to find out!
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, due to popular demand, I welcome Tom Luongo back on the show! Tom is one of my favorite writers due to his entertaining prose and deeply refreshing insight on global macro, geopolitics, and currency markets. He is also a long-term bitcoiner, discussing it for many years in his writing and podcast.
Fed Watch is the macro podcast for bitcoiners. In this episode, we start by getting a big picture view from Tom on the global situation, then dive into some specifics about Europe, the US, the Federal Reserve, Ukraine, and much more. We wrap up the show talking about what Tom sees for the US in the short to midterm, so, the next 3 to 24 months. Below, I’ll provide a little more detail on what was said, but this is a MUST LISTEN episode!
The Sick Man at the Table The first question I ask Tom is, is he as bearish as everyone else? It seems everywhere we look people are screaming about bear markets and collapse, from macro to geopolitics to bitcoin. However, I think this collapse narrative is overdone, especially for the United States. I ask Tom to give us his broad picture of the state of the markets.
He starts in by identifying the sick man at the table, that being Europe. Europe is hit the hardest by the forces that have been unleashed right now, rising commodities prices, rising inflation, loss of confidence in institutions, et cetera. As Europe struggles and begins to cannibalize itself, all that capital in investment portfolios in Europe will eventually have to flow somewhere, and it’ll flow to the United States.
The conflict that has started in Ukraine is on Europe’s doorstep, and specifically on the doorstep of the best economy in Europe over the last decade, Poland. Tom asks rhetorically, “is Warsaw or New York closer to Ukraine?” As investors realize that this new conflict is not going away, and to fight it with economic weapons as they have been, they must destroy their own economies, money will rapidly flee Europe to the US. I’ll add, it will also flow into bitcoin.
The Federal Reserve is Serious I ask Tom if he thinks the Fed will go through with uber-hawkish rate hikes. His answer eloquently lays out that Powell’s plans to raise rates back in 2017 was interrupted by Covid, and now, Powell is going scorched earth to raise rates to break the back of every other central bank and rival currency.
The reason the Fed will do this according to Tom Luongo is that the Fed, owned by Wall St banks and US monied interests, is trying to wash out the decade of malinvestment that’s built up since the GFC. He also frames it as a fracture in the relationship between US monied interests and the globalists in Europe. We can’t understand the Fed without understanding the Davos crowd’s intent to rule the world or burn it down.
According to Tom, the Federal Reserve will raise rates continually until 2024, to break the back of Davos and the radical globalist/communist objectives. I tend to agree with him, perhaps I wouldn’t put it as colorfully as Tom does, but the globalists are “global communists” and will burn the global economy down before they admit defeat.
Bitcoin and US Fates are Intertwined The last part of the episode, I ask Tom about my theory that, what is good for the US economy is good for bitcoin, at this moment in time. A majority of the bitcoin supply is likely held by US entities, the US has the largest share of mining, the largest share of bitcoin interested people, the most venture capital money, and some of the most lacks regulation. So, if bitcoin is to thrive in a major economy, it will be the US.
Tom tends to agree with me on this, but breaks it down in more detail, saying there is a segment of Wall St that likes bitcoin, and those are the same people fighting Davos. They are planning a SWIFT replacement, and are friendly to Proof-of-work coins because they have money in it now, with mining taking off in the US.
I can’t cover all his comments in detail, because what is great about Tom Luongo is he takes threads from many different topics and weaves them together into a refreshing perspective.
After the above exchange, we get into bitcoin’s future in regards to Europe. While we both are relatively bullish on the US economy over the next 10 years, and that will be good for bitcoin, we are also both very bearish on Europe, and that too, will be good for bitcoin, as it gives European capital a reason to flee into bitcoin.
Again, this is a MUST LISTEN episode, with deadly serious topics mixed with Tom’s entertaining storytelling ability.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Market Mayhem and Calling the Bitcoin Bottom - FED 92 Keywords: Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Listen To This Episode: Apple Spotify Google Libsyn Overcast If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen! In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, CK and I, along with the livestream crew, discuss macro developments relevant to bitcoin. Topics include the recent 50 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, a CPI preview (recorded live on Tuesday before data release), discussion on why Owner Equivalent Rent is often misunderstood, and wrap with an epic discussion of the bitcoin price. This could be a pivotal episode in the history of Fed Watch, because I’m on the record that bitcoin is “in the neighborhood” of the bottom. This is in stark contrast to the mainstream uber-bearishness in the market right now. I rely heavily on charts in this episode that didn’t always line up during the video. Those charts are below with a basic explanation. You can see the whole slide deck I used here. Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now. Federal Reserve and Economic Numbers for US On this first chart, I point to the Fed’s last two rate hikes on the S&P 500 chart. I wrote in a blog post this week: “What I'm trying to show is that the rate hikes themselves are not the Fed's primary tool. Talking about hiking rates is the primary tool, along with fostering the belief in the magic of the Fed.” Remove those arrows, and try to guess where the announcements were. Same goes for the next chart, gold. Lastly, for this section, we looked at the Bitcoin chart with QE and QT plotted. As you can see, in the era with “No QE”, from 2015 to 2019, Bitcoin experienced a 6000% bull market. This is almost the exact opposite of what one would expected. To summarize this section, Federal Reserve policy has little to do with major swings in the market. Swings come from the unknowable complex ebbs and flows of the market. The Federal Reserve only tries to smooth the edges. CPI Mayhem It’s hard to write a good summary of this part of the podcast, because we were live the day prior to the data dropping. Basically in the podcast, I cover Eurozone CPI going slightly higher to 7.5% in April year-over-year (YoY), with a month-over-month rate of change dropping from a staggering 2.5% in March, to 0.6% in April. That is the story most people are missing on CPI, month to month changes rapidly slowed in April. I also covered CPI forecasts for the US on the podcast, but now, we have hard data for April. US headline CPI dropped from 8.5% in March to 8.3% in April. Month to month change was from 1.2% in March to 0.3% in April. Again, a big decline in the rate of CPI increase. Year-over-year CPI can be very confusing. This chart looks like inflation in April was measured at 8.3%, when in fact, it was measured at only 0.3% (second chart below). Year-over-year CPI Month-over-month CPI Source: FRED Next topic we cover in the podcast is rent. I very often hear total misunderstandings of the CPI measure on shelter and specifically Owner Equivalent Rent (OER). For starters, it’s very hard to measure the impact on consumers of increases to housing costs in general. Most people do not move very often. We have 15 or 30 year fixed rate mortgages that are not affected at all by current home prices. Even rental leases are not renewed every month. Contracts typically last a year, sometimes more. Therefore, if a few people pay higher rents in a certain month, that does not affect the average person’s shelter expenses, or the average landlord revenue. Taking current market prices for rentals or homes is a dishonest way to estimate the average cost of housing, yet not doing so is the most often quoted critique of the CPI. Caveat: I’m not saying CPI measures inflation (money printing), it measures an index of prices to maintain your standard of living. Of course, there are many layers of subjectivity in this statistic. Owner Equivalent Rent more accurately estimates changes in housing costs for the average American, smooths out volatility, and separates pure shelter costs from investment value. Bitcoin Price Analysis The rest of the episode is talking about the current bitcoin price action. I start my bullish rant by showing the hash rate chart, and talking about why it is a lagging and confirming indicator. With hash rate at ATHs and consistently growing, that means bitcoin is fairly valued at its current level. Source: Sipa The next chart shows the history of bitcoin drawdowns. Recent years have seen shorter, smaller rallies and shorter, smaller drawdowns. This chart suggests that 50% drawdowns are the new normal, instead of 85%. Source: glassnode Now, we get into some technical analysis. I concentrate on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) because it is very basic and a fundamental building block of many other indicators. Monthly RSI is at levels that typically signal cycle bottoms. Currently, the monthly is more oversold than the bottom of the corona crash in 2020. Weekly RSI is equally as oversold. It is as low as the bottom of the corona crash in 2020, and before that at the bottom of the bear market in 2018. The Fear and Greed index is also extremely low. This measure is showing “Extreme Fear” that only registers at relative bottoms, and at 10, ties for the lowest since the corona crash in 2020. Source: Fear and Greed Index In summary, my contrarian, bullish argument is; 1) bitcoin is already at historic lows and could bottom at any moment; 2) the global economy is getting worse and bitcoin is counterparty free sound money, it should behave similar to 2015 at the end of QE back then; 3) the Fed will be forced to reverse its narrative in the coming months which could relieve downward pressure on stocks; and 4) bitcoin is closely tied to the US at this point, and the US will weather the coming recession better than most other places. That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Links Slide deck https://tinyurl.com/2d67abc3 Fed’s Kashkari targets only 2% https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/policy-has-tightened-a-lot-is-it-enough-6ea24db96ed2 My latest piece on Fed rate hikes https://btcm.co/the-fed-hikes-rates-by-50-bps-the-largest-raise-in-22-years/ Eurozone CPI https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/euro-area/news/inflation/inflation-surges-to-new-record-high-in-april US CPI forecasts https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-preview-forecasts-from-12-major-banks-the-first-decelerating-print-in-a-long-time-202205101421 Written by Ansel Lindner Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, CK and I discuss the evolving economic situation in China and Japan, China’s lockdowns and real estate developments, and Japan’s monetary outlook. It’s been a while since we’ve discussed this part of the world, so we endeavor to give a broad overview. I recommend checking out the links below for more information as well.
Of course, we also cover upcoming events for the Fed with their rate decision coming on May 4th, concerns over CPI and GDP in the US, and talk about how bitcoin fits into this revolutionary era.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Federal Reserve and Economic Numbers for US The first few minutes of the podcast we cover economic matters occurring in the US. The Federal Reserve is coming out with their rate decision on May 4th and it is expected to be 50 bps. We do not expect any surprises in this regard at the time of writing, but we’ll find out very shortly. The consensus view according to CME’s FedWatch tool is 99% that we will see a 50 bps hike, to a range of 75-100 bps on the Fed Funds rate.
CPI for April is also due out on the 11th, which is more likely to be a surprise than the Fed Funds decision. We think the CPI could unexpectedly drop following the weak Q1 GDP numbers from last week, showing a -1.4% GDP growth.
China’s Lockdowns Continue China’s economic troubles started long before the recent Shanghai lockdowns, but the regressive pandemic policy will only serve to exacerbate the problems. After a brief 2 days of zero and hope that the end of lockdown was near, new omicron cases outside quarantine have once again been detected in the besieged city. These new cases have occurred in areas where lockdowns were less strict, so we could see a total reversal from a light at the end of the tunnel, to an increasing the strictness of the lockdowns.
Economic numbers out of Shanghai and China are horrible. Freight traffic in Shanghai is down 81% YoY for the last 3 weeks, and freight traffic in all of China is down 15% in the same period.
Many of the results of the lockdown have not yet hit consumers. Ships that left the area days before the lockdowns are only now completing their round trips. That means delays on orders, parts, and products will become much more noticeable.
Far from ending, lockdowns are spreading. 46 cities in China now have some form of restrictions, totalling 340 million people and nearly 80% of their economy. Beijing itself is bracing for Shanghai style lockdowns as 2 days of city-wide testing is causing residents to stock up on food and limit daily travel to areas closer to home. They don’t want to be caught unprepared if Beijing institutes rapid lockdowns like in Shanghai where some parts of the city only had a matter of hours to comply.
China Economic Troubles We cannot trust CCP economic numbers, but we have some private statistics that in the same ballpark. For example, Caixin’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) continued its contraction, down to 46 from 48 last month, which is similar to the official CCP report of 47. Anything under 50 is contraction. It is noteworthy that the decline in PMI started back in 2020, not just with the lockdowns.
When forecasting the Chinese economy, the saying, “you cannot taper a Ponzi scheme” is very appropriate. As the Chinese economy slows, it also becomes much more fragile.
China Real Estate Woes If you think lockdowns, shipping, and growth stats in China are bad, wait until you see the real estate sector. Sales by the 100 largest real estate developers fell 52% measured in value YoY in the period right before the lockdowns began. Of course, with the lockdowns very little real estate is being bought and sold, but after this period of depression and collapse in morale, it is unlikely that the real estate market will return anywhere near previous levels.
Absolutely devastating to an economy where 70% of household wealth is tied to real estate.
It gets worse. Mortgage applications and bank loans are down over 50% in the same period and in a survey of bank depositors, 54% said they plan to spend less in the future, compared to 20% who said they plan to spend more. That is horrific for an economy that is based on a gigantic credit bubble and stuck in the middle income trap.
It’s gotten to the point that the CCP is stealthy in easing the 3 Red Lines policy that was intended to pop the over-leveraged real estate market in the first place. They have recently told local authorities that they have more discretion in applying the Red Lines per their unique local conditions.
China’s main strategy for stimulus is to increase infrastructure spending. However, they are already over-built as it is. With each new crisis, infrastructure stimulus has diminishing marginal returns, and could turn negative.
Bottom line for China is they are in a world of hurt. Their economy was crashing prior to the lockdowns, and the lockdowns are only spreading and becoming more strict. There is no opportunity to grow their economy in an attempt to stay solvent. They will likely be able to structure defaults (play games and kick the can) but it will, without a doubt, affect all future growth for China going forward. We have reached the end of China as the growth engine of the world economy, and should look for ways to mitigate the fall out.
Japanese Yen is Crashing Many people are talking about the rise in the exchange rate of the JPY. In the last 2 months, it has dropped from 114 to the dollar, to 130. A total of 14%.
The weakness is not isolated to the dollar, which has been strengthening against all other currencies lately, but also the Euro and the Yuan. Indeed, the Japanese monetary situation seems to be closely related to China’s, perhaps because of disproportionate exposure to the struggling giant.
A better chart to show just how bad the Yen has collapsed is the “real exchange rate” that takes into account inflation numbers. It recently broke down to 50 year lows. The lowest since 1971.
There is also some excitement in the Japanese bond market. It has traditionally been extremely boring, until recently the Japanese 10-year government bond broke through the 0.25% ceiling, placed there by the fabled yield curve control (YCC).
I do not think they have the actual monetary tools to keep it locked below that ceiling. In other words, YCC doesn’t work. This is important because so many macro experts jump straight to the Fed doing yield curve control. If they are wrong, and tools of the modern central bank cannot cap rates, confidence in central banks could be shaken. If Japan’s recent fight means anything, it looks as though YCC doesn’t work as promised.
I’m including a video of two Japan experts, Tohru Sasaki, Managing Director and Head of Japan Markets Research with JPMorgan Chase Bank,Tokyo and JPMorgan Securities Japan, and Jesper Koll, Expert Director at Japan-based Monex Group. They do an excellent job discussing the current situation for Japan, the dangers and opportunities it faces.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
If you enjoy this content please SHARE, LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes if you listen!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I play the important clips from the IMF roundtable that we talked about on FED 90. CK and I talked about them on the livestream, but were unable to play them directly for you. So, here they are with a bit of commentary to guide the episode.
Our original episode goes into much more depth on each of the points raised by Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde. In general, this event was meant to convey a specific message of unity and control by our overlord central planners. However, CK and I stress all the places where that messaging misses the market, and also how bitcoin fixes this.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
- Source Video
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, CK and I discuss our thoughts on the “IMF debate” that took place on April 21, 2022 between Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Takeaways First, I must preface my write up by saying this was not a debate at all. These financial bureaucrats were simply using this forum to get their message across to the people of the world. They all basically agreed on the major points, that being, inflation is high and we can blame Russia for much of the problem due to supply shocks.
The major theme from Lagarde and Powell was, to get CPI back into their acceptable range of 2%, they must rein in demand in their respective economies, since the driving force of the rise is due to a supply shock.
The medium is the message as it goes. Although this event is meant to portray a united front for the global financial system, we pick out several very important places where Powell and Lagarde disagree once you dig a little deeper.
ECB and Fed on Inflation Christine Lagarde breaks down the components of the high CPI level in Europe by saying 50% of it is due to energy prices, another significant portion is due to food prices, and only a small fraction of CPI, 2.9% to be exact, is what is called “core CPI”. I know that most people in the bitcoin space don’t accept the importance of core CPI and think it is a scam to hide actual inflation. But in this case, Lagarde has a point. Most of Europe’s price increases are due to a self-imposed supply shock.
Chair Powell talks about CPI in the US differently. He acknowledges the supply shock aspect, but his main view of the supply side of things is that the US economy is red hot and very tight. He mentions the labor market multiple times, claiming supply cannot keep up with rising demand, as opposed to Europe where supply is being cut relative to demand.
CK and I react to these two viewpoints of the central bank chiefs.
The Sunset of Globalization Another very important exchange from the IMF roundtable we emphasize is when the moderator asks about the decline in globalization. Powell says that it is quite possible that we see a reversal in globalization, while Lagarde “pleads Europe’s case” for a mere revisiting of the terms of trade.
I think this exposes a fundamental difference between these two economies, and in the podcast we take time to detail this out more in depth. Suffice it to say in this write up, the US is more self-sufficient and ultimately less concerned about the fate of globalization than Europe. Europe is beholden to the global economy for customers and for energy inputs.
Bitcoin’s Answer to Lagarde and Powell Being a bitcoin show, CK and I take a lot of time discussing just how bitcoin fixes these problems of the financial system that Powell and Lagarde speak about.
Instead of relying on central planners (who admit to following the market anyway), a bitcoin system will take much of the complexity out of the process. We will not have the false impression that the expert class knows best and people will be unencumbered by a narrative of inadequacy and inefficiency.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I give a big update on central bank related news from around the world. It’s been several weeks since we’ve done a down and dirty update on material from the monetary world, so there is a lot to cover. Listen to the episode for my complete coverage. Below, I summarize Federal Reserve related headlines and their upcoming FOMC meeting, CPI and inflation expectations, Europe and the ECB’s dilemma, and lastly, China’s horrible economic issues.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Federal Reserve Calendar Financial headlines have been awash with Federal Reserve Presidents and Governors trying to outdo each other in their calls for rate hikes. The most recent is from President Bullard of the St Louis Fed, calling for a 75 bps hike and up to 3.75% on the Fed Funds rate by the end of the year!
Powell is speaking in front of the Volcker Alliance meeting via pre-recorded remarks and appear live to the IMF on Thursday April 21 (I got the events mixed up in the podcast). I expect discussion of the global CPI situation in relation to different countries’ monetary policy. We should get some insight into Powell’s view of the current global economy in these remarks, more than the typical “the economy is expanding at a moderate pace” vanilla comments we usually get at the FOMC pressers.
The much anticipated next FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 3-4. The market is saying that a 50 bps hike is likely, so anything less than that would be a dovish surprise. Up to this point, the Fed has only raised rates once by 25 bps, yet the onslaught of calls for rapid and large rate hikes has made it seem as though they have already done more.
The Fed’s main policy tool is forward guidance. They want the market to believe that the Fed is going to hike so much they break something. In that way, the Fed economists believe they will tampen inflation expectations leading to lower actual inflation. Therefore, all these outrageous calls for extremely high Fed Funds rate by the end of the year are meant to mold your expectations, not actual prescriptions for monetary policy.
CPI, Inflation Expectations and Yield Curve The next segment of the podcast is all about inflation expectations. Below are the charts I go over with some simplified commentary.
Source: FRED
Above, we see the CPI year-over-year. The most recent number is 8.55%, however, in April we are entering the YoY space of the acceleration of CPI last year. April 2021’s CPI jumped from 2.6% that March to 4.1%. That means we will need to see similar acceleration in prices between this March and April, which I do not think we will get.
And the rest of the inflation expectation metrics below do not agree CPI will continue to worsen (for the US).
Source: FRED
The University of Michigan Consumer CPI expectations has effectively been capped below 5%, and as we approach recession that should move downward quickly, placating Fed economists I’d like to add.
Source: FRED
The 5-year Breakeven is slightly elevated from historical norms at 3.3%, but it is a long way from confirming the 8% of the CPI.
Source: FRED
Same with the 10-year Breakeven. It is even less elevated from historical norms, coming in at 2.9%. Far from the 8% CPI.
Source: FRED
One of the highest regarded inflation expectations measures is the 5-year 5-year Forward. It is still below its historical norm, coming in at 2.48%.
All of these measures agree with each other in being far below the 8% CPI, added to the flat yield curve with some inversions shown below, and the shakiness of the economy, it leads me to expect an orderly return of CPI to its historical norm in the 1-3% range.
Transitory has become a meme at this point, but we can see that it has only been a year of elevated CPI readings and there are signs of peak CPI already. Transitory simply meant that this was not a multi-decade trend change for inflation, it is a temporary period of higher than average levels. Every other metric besides CPI is telling us just that.
Source: GuruFocus
Europe and the ECB In this podcast, I also cover the deteriorating situation for Europe and the Euro. The ECB recently announced that they would be stopping asset purchases in Q3 of this year to get a handle on inflation. Europe’s CPI has come in at 7.5%, still below the US. However, their economic situation is much worse than the US.
Europe is in the middle of many different crises at once, an energy crisis, a debt crisis, a deglobalization crisis, perhaps a food crisis, and a demographic crisis. All of that while the ECB is easing. What happens when they try to tighten?! Nothing good.
For these reasons I expect the Euro to drop significantly against the dollar and other currencies. Below you find several charts I talk about on the podcast for the audio listeners.
Source: Yardeni Research
EURUSD has broken its lifetime support trend line in red and is looking very bearish. The dollar index against major currencies however, is performing very well, exactly opposite to what the dollar bears would have you believe. No sign of de-dollarization, weakness or threat of losing its status anytime soon.
Source: bitcoinandmarkets.com
China’s Growing Problems The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) once again, effective April 25th. In this segment, I read through an article by FXStreet and make commentary along the way.
Recent developments in China only strengthen the case I have been making for years, that China is a paper tiger built on credit that is going to collapse in a scary fashion.
The Chinese have not been able to slow the real estate collapse or the spread of Omicron. They disastrously resorted again to lockdown in Shanghai and other cities, that will only serve to cripple their economy more. They cannot drive demand for loans or for lending in this environment, hence the multiple attempts to spur lending by lowering RRR.
What the PBOC will most likely turn to next is mandating loans be made. They are desperate to increase credit and keep the bubble from collapsing fully. This is reminiscent of Japan in the 90s, when they mandated loans to be made in a similar attempt to stimulate the economy. It didn’t work for Japan and it won’t work for China. At best China is looking at a repeat of the lost decades in Japan.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Links Bullard’s recent comments https://archive.ph/rafqY
China lowers RRR https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-pboc-cut-the-rrr-by-25-bps-uob-202204191408
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, CK and I had the privilege to chat with Matthew Pines from the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He recently wrote the fantastic and comprehensive Bitcoin essay for policymakers and the general public, Bitcoin and US National Security: An Assessment of Bitcoin as a Strategic Opportunity for the United States. Our conversation focused on a summary of the essay, digging deeper into quality vs quantity adoption, stablecoins, ways nations view CBDCs differently, and we end with talking about the Federal Reserve and their predicament right now over rate hikes with an inverted yield curve.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Report Summary We started out by discussing who was Matt’s target audience and did that affect the structure of the paper. I was curious because it is very comprehensive, covering bitcoin’s technical mechanics, recent monetary history, and then ways bitcoin could be used to the strategic advantage of the United States.
Matthew Pines responded that he anchored the structure of the paper around Biden’s recent executive order. As people are taking a closer look at these topics, and as they are writing reports themselves in response to that order, Matt wanted to give them an analytical primer and a summary of how bitcoin can address the concerns specifically of the administration about national security.
Bitcoin Adoption Next, we get into some specifics from the report. He mentions that 16% of US adults own bitcoin/cryptocurrency. However, this is an overall figure and doesn’t speak to the quality of that adoption. For instance, it could be a lot of gamblers buying scam tokens on Coinbase. I wondered if he had insight on adoption by the politically powerful, i.e. business leaders, government officials, influencers, millionaires and billionaires. In essence, I asked Matt to speculate based on his unique knowledge set.
Matt has a great line, “the power of selective high-value orange pilling can’t be overstated.” He says that is kind of what we all want, but it can turn out badly. He also warns against concentrating too much on politicians. In other words, let bitcoin’s incentives do the work.
Staying on the policy front for one more question, we ask if adoption is closing the window for possible devastatingly bad policy decisions. If 16% of the public own bitcoin now, how much will that be in 1 or 2 years? If 50% of people own bitcoin, and most of the politically influential class own bitcoin, does that make it nearly impossible to get bad policy? Once again, asking him to speculate on this question.
Matt’s answer is very constructive. He points out that the window of policy is moving in a positive direction, citing Senator Lummis’ recent work. He makes the distinction between the legislative and executive branches and says each have a different relationship to policy. The lawmakers are obvious, but an average employee of the executive branch could perpetuate misunderstanding because they are in a rush to write a brief or complete a report.
Stablecoins and Europe Now, we get into the CBDC discussion, focusing on Europe first. Matt claims that the European Union is inherently threatened by USD stablecoins and Bitcoin, because it is the monetary union that underpins the political union. Therefore, it is naturally more drawn to CBDC solutions.
He also agrees that the Federal Reserve is unlike the European Central Bank in terms of its pursuit of a CBDC. Basically, the Fed has a great grasp on the issues and forces at play in a CBDC. They are much more friendly to USD stablecoins than a CBDC already, even though they might not know all the strategic advantages that Matthew has outlined in his report.
One of Pines’ great points from his report, that he brings up at this point, is the ability for the Fed to regulate USD stablecoins and force them to be buyers of US Treasury Securities. This could add more demand for Treasuries and even give the Fed a new policy tool.
Federal Reserve is Trapped In the last part of the interview, we have time to quickly cover the Federal Reserve’s predicament. They have made a massive move to hawkishness, and after only one tiny hike, the yield curve is already inverting signaling recession. I asked Matt what he thought of this development, and what his take on the Fed’s options are at this point.
Matt goes on the expertly describe the situation in which the Fed finds itself as an “irreducibly complex system”. The Fed has to poke this complex system increasingly harder each time and wait to see what breaks. Matt says if we want to see where we are headed we should look to Japan, because they are 5 -10 years ahead of the rest of the world in these monetary experiments like QE and yield curve control.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, I cover topics we were unable to cover on the weekly livestream. I go back over the importance of the Sarah Bloom Raskin withdrawal, what the Fed is thinking by signaling hawkish policy so aggressively, and do a deep dive into the emerging food crisis that could result in a continental scale famine.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Bye Bye Raskin I mentioned Sarah Bloom Raskin on the previous episode but here I go back over that thread and try to make it crystal clear what I think her withdrawal of her nomination tells us about the real power politics at play.
Raskin is a progressive globalist who believed in using the central bank to further a Davos agenda. It didn’t work. I think it makes the distinction between Team Fed, including Powell and Wall St. versus Davos globalists (Dems, Neocons, and European project people) perfectly clear.
Federal Reserve messaging Next, I introduce the concept of the Fed credibly promising to be irresponsible, this time on the hawkish side. In 1998, Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman, said of the Bank of Japan’s inability to stimulate out of a stagnant economy what they needed to “credibly promise to be irresponsible”; go big or go home. The Federal Reserve is now attempting to be irresponsible in the reverse direction.
The Fed will come right out and say that their policy works through inflation expectations. Typically, they talk about how much QE they will do, in an attempt raise expectations of inflation, that makes people act as if inflation were higher, manifesting that inflation in the future. Right now, it seems as if they are trying the reverse.
Ask yourself, how would the Fed lower inflation expectations? They have to act hawkish, and talk about raising interest rates and QT. That is what we are seeing now. Everyone sees the yield curve inversions happening. They know the world is sliding into war and deglobalization, two things that make people expect higher prices in the future. They have to attack those stubborn inflation expectations with very hawkish rhetoric in order to tame those expectations back to “normal”.
Yield Curve Inversions In this section, I walk through the images below to explain the yield curve, the inversions right now, and what they mean. I’m not sure if there will be a video version of this episode on Bitcoin Magazine’s YT channel.
Emerging Food Crisis In the last section of the podcast, read through an article with the headline: War in Ukraine sparks concerns over worldwide food shortages from France 24. In it they point to the wheat shortage from the war in Ukraine that is already causing food shortages in North Africa.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that an additional 8-13 million people worldwide face undernourishment if food exports from Ukraine and Russia are stopped permanently.
The article is good at summarizing one aspect of the looming food crisis, a shortage of wheat. What they do not even mention is the shortage of fertilizer. Both of these things together threaten a continental scale famine where that number of 8-13 million new people facing hunger is probably understated by 10x.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of the Fed Watch podcast, CK and I are joined by Benjamin Dicktor. He’s a trucker and bitcoiner who has been intimately involved in the Canadian peaceful protest earlier this year. We got an update on the donation status, the individuals’ legal status, and what bitcoin can do better to face similar attacks in the future. After that we roll into a Fed Watch update, talking about the Fed rate hike and increasingly aggressive and hawkish tone from Powell. Lastly, we cover the Russian sanctions from a different angle, but pointing out the growing clash between Wall Street and the Davos crowd.
We ran out of time before getting to all the Fed Watch specific news, so stay tuned for a mid-week episode!
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Canadian Trucker Debrief After getting an update on the situation in Canada, the first question we ask Benjamin is how all of these financial attacks have affected Canadians’ trust in the financial system in general. His answer is very practical. He points out that the Bank of Canada has printed more as a percentage of GDP than the Federal Reserve, but from his point of view is that the vast majority of the public simply is ignorant of the monetary system and what is needed is more education. As people get more educated that is all the more bullish for bitcoin.
Dichtor then lays out the mechanics behind these financial attacks. They happened on three levels, the municipal, provincial and federal. On the provincial level, the attorney generals went after the banks to freeze all proceeds of the fundraisers as illegal in some way. Then they went after people’s whole finances by freezing banking services. Benjamin says that it wasn’t enough to freeze the specific donations, they de-banked people in an attempt to starve them out.
I follow this up with a question about what can the bitcoin space, with its open source ethos and entrepreneurial spirit do or build that would mitigate these types of attacks in the future. His answer is two fold, one is narrative and the other is integration.
For the narrative, Benjamin thinks it’s important to market bitcoin uses instead of its technical capabilities. “People don’t know how their car works, but they still drive it.” Marketing bitcoin as a hedge against overzealous authorities as a way to protect your rights is more important than explaining why and how it’s better money. On the integration side, Benjamin leans toward the Bitcoin Beach model down in El Salvador. Getting fuller integration by packaging it with business opportunity.
Fed Hikes Rates, What Next? Since this is a central bank oriented show, we next make a hard pivot into Fed news. First and foremost on that agenda is the Fed’s rate hike. Last week, the Fed raised its target Fed Funds Rate up from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50%, in the first hike since 2018. Along with the hike came more aggressively hawkish language about further hikes, even a 50 bps hike soon, and beginning Quantitative Tightening as early as May.
I point out that it is the rhetoric that the Fed is using to lower inflation expectations. That is the route by which the Fed themselves claim their policies to work, through the publics expectations. If people expect high inflation, they will act as if there is high inflation, and it will manifest in that way. A self-fulfilling prophecy.
What the Fed is doing now is the opposite, they want people to expect an irresponsibly hawkish Fed to crater inflation expectations, so people act as if inflation is coming down, to manifest inflation in that direction. It remains to be seen if the Fed will actually be able to follow through on this roadmap.
The Federal Reserve is explicitly a follower of the market. They proudly say they are “data dependent”, meaning the market moves and creates data, which the Fed follows. Therefore, the Fed will raise rates as long as the market cooperates and prices in higher a Fed Funds Rate. However, if the yield curve only flattens, and the long end starts coming down and the Fed will be forced to stop. I think that will happen around the middle of the year some time. Maybe after a couple more rate hikes.
I’ll go deeper into the yield curve on a mid-week episode for the viewers and listeners. Stay tuned for that.
The Clash Between Wall Street and Progressive Globalists The next topic might be controversial. I lay out the sanctions put on Russian banks and how it surprised the Fed. Powell came out shortly after the SWIFT sanctions and said he was not consulted about the ban. He likely would have disapproved of it because his lane is financial stability. Banks are interdependent, and banks exposed to Russian debt in Europe or Asia, will spread contagion of these sanctions through the whole financial system. These sanctions therefore, risk causing a global financial crisis.
I try to expand on the thread that Wall Street and the Biden regime (as well as other Davos heavyweights) are at odds here. Those are the two 1000 lb gorillas in the room, capitalist Wall Street and authoritarian globalists. The Fed, banks, and Wall Street are generally neutral to bitcoin and will add it to reserves if need be. However, the globalist Davos elites despise bitcoin and will fight it by going with a CBDC. If that is true, the Fed becomes an ally to bitcoiners in the story of adoption. You’ll have to listen to get the fuller theory.
Conclusions We end the show with CK and Benjamin’s reactions to my unique theory and closing remarks. I don’t think I have either of them convinced. Benjamin has a great view which we share here at Fed Watch, about the rise of localism and regionalism in the future. We should strive to form strong self-sufficient social circles to minimize the attack vectors open to the State.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the *bitcoinandmarkets.com*
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, CK and I welcome a special guest, Luke Gromen. Luke is founder and President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) LLC, where he provides clients with macro insights and investible analysis of the global financial system. In this wide ranging conversation we dive deeply into Russia, gold, oil, the shadow banking system, bonds, you name it, we probably talked about it on the episode.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events and how Bitcoin will integrate or replace aspects of the aging financial system. To understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must first understand what’s happening now.
Thanks for listening and watching. If you like the content please share! Thank you.
Common Misperceptions of the Market We start off the show (after an awkward intro by me that Christian rescues) with Gromen giving a summary of his model for viewing the current economic landscape. He points to two widely held misconceptions that have created the situation in which we find ourselves: 1) The value of the petrodollar is the dollar, instead of the petro; and 2) thinking debt doesn’t matter. These are things people believe, but are in reality the opposite.
I try to clarify the origins of these misconceptions, but do so badly. I believe that those misconceptions are due to the system in which they arose. In the long history of the post-WWII era, however, they were not misconceptions. The value was in the dollar of the petrodollar and US debt didn’t matter. They only became wrong as this era is ending. So, what I was wondering was did these misconceptions cause the end of the era or did the end of the era cause the misconceptions to become wrong.
Achilles Heel of the Dollar System In this part of the podcast, Luke dives deeper into the tweet that prompted this interview, about Russia perhaps weaponizing gold, and as a response, the US weaponizing bitcoin.
There is a fragile gold market out there of unallocated gold trading, centered on the LBMA and COMEX. Luke’s contention is that if Russia wanted to, they could simply declare that they will sell oil for gold and that could crash these markets and instantly transform gold’s market cap to a size able to handle the world's financial clearing.
According to Luke’s interesting thought experiment, this move toward a petro-gold standard would lead to fewer US securities being held in national reserves around the world and lead to a multi-currency trade network.
Dollar is Rising, Not Falling One of the things we could expect, if the theory about a multi-currency future was correct, is for the dollar index (DXY) to fall relative to other currencies. However, over the last couple of weeks, the dollar has exploded higher, reaching 99.4, the highest since May 2020. It is a level of strength the dollar has only achieved for a few months in the last 5 years, mainly during that brief period in early 2020.
What are the Practical Next Steps for the Financial Reset? It has been our position on Fed Watch for almost a year, that the Corona Financial Crisis will likely be followed by a second European debt crisis, just like what followed the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). It is predictable because of the way money, reserves and credit flow like a tide around the world. We’ve also said that Europe is the sick man of the world financially. It will be a wonder if the Euro and the EU survive the coming debt crisis. Now it seems they also have to survive a physical threat to their carefully crafted reasons for existence.
Anyway, it is our position that the Euro will face existential issues long before the dollar does. We asked Luke what his insight is into that dynamic. He has a very nuanced process of what the next steps are and does an excellent job detailing how the contagion in energy and commodities will spread to European banks and then to American banks. As the contagion spreads to stocks, which drive marginal spending and marginal tax receipts in the US, Luke says, we will ultimately see it spread to US sovereign debt.
As tax receipts drop and the US faces a government funding crisis, the US will turn to the Federal Reserve and insist they start QE again, because it is their only practical choice. Luke says this manifests itself with a return to central bank easing with still very high inflation.
What if Oil Falls from Here? Next, we cover the possibility (which I think is the most likely to happen), that Ukraine is wrapped up much sooner than everyone thinks and doesn’t result in a quagmire. In that case, energy would start flowing again from Russia but also the market has overreacted and brought more US, Venezuelan, Iranian and perhaps even OPEC production online. That could quickly flip the crisis from an oil shortage to an oil glut. We must remember to place this price spike in the context of 2 years ago, when oil futures went NEGATIVE. Just 23 months later, now we have multi-decade highs. What if it drops back to $50/bbl or lower very rapidly?
I point out the chart looks similar to 2008 and a parabolic blow off top, not like a sustained regime change to more expensive oil. Luke counters saying that this event is bigger than that. What we’ve seen is a “marked-to-market of relative global power levels”. This matches well with Luke’s position that cutting off Russia from SWIFT and seizing their foreign held reserves was a foundational shift in the global financial system.
Luke eloquently lays out the theme that the world is witnessing the end of, not only the post-WWII US hegemony, but also the dollar system as we know it.
Here, I ask him an interesting question, are bond prices more correct or is the oil price more correct? Both markets are extremely deep and sophisticated, but oil appears to be more in an unsustainable place on the chart, very similar to 2008, while bonds are remaining in their long term trend. I ask this because of the old adage that the bond market is always right.
Luke responds that he thinks oil is more correct, though he does caveat that there could be a short term correction due to a disappearance of the war premium we have right now. However, he brings it back to a fundamental aspect of his thesis, that the US sovereign debt is the difference this time around. The dollar is not in a position to continue easing like Japan did when they had a similar debt-to-GDP ratio, because the US dollar is the global reserve currency.
Globalism to Regionalism Christian brings us back to reality and the realm of bitcoin to wrap up the show. He asks Luke about trust in a future system and how that might manifest as a more local and regional world instead of one that is so global, with all the vulnerabilities associated with globalism.
We briefly discuss the shrinking of supply chains and the rise of more self-sufficient and regional trusted trade networks. Luke thinks this is a great scenario for bitcoin to but ultimately thinks gold will shine as the asset most trusted upon which to build the new system.
Conclusions Surprisingly, we didn’t talk about inflation. With the utter catastrophe that the global supply chains are, and the massive amount of “printing” the Fed has done, it is shocking that CPI is only at 7% year-on-year? I think there is a huge oversight in much of the dedollarization narrative that we didn’t even cover, mainly that the Fed doesn’t print money. Hopefully, we can get Luke back on the show to discuss that one.
This episode was full of predictions and thought experiments. It was a fun conversation and a pleasure to meet Luke. We were trying to apply some rational assumptions to practical next steps in the global financial system. It was a little light on bitcoin, but before we can understand how bitcoin will become global money, we must understand the gravity of the recent events, which is what this episode was all about.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, CK and I continue our monthly series with Dylan LeClair, author of the Deep Dive report. We had the opportunity to go over the metrics in the bitcoin market that he is watching and is an expert in. They have a free version of the report that comes out daily, and an exclusive paid version monthly and yearly. Follow along with his slide deck here.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening is what we are about here at Fed Watch.
Bitcoin’s Correlation to Stocks and VIX The first topic we cover in this episode and the first topic from the January issue of the Deep Dive is bitcoin’s correlation to stocks and the volatility measure, the VIX. Dylan describes why this correlation has appeared over the last year and what it can tell us about the health of the bitcoin market.
Grayscale GBTC and Bitcoin Price One of the bigger topics we talk about with Dylan is Grayscale and the effect this market behemoth has on the bitcoin price.
LeClair walked us through this product and its effect on the market. We talked about major institutions, AKA market makers, that could have been caught on the wrong side of this trade, as the large price premium that was facilitating “risk free” arbitrage suddenly changed to a discount.
Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis of Liquid Circulating Supply
As the name suggests, the Deep Dive is an in-depth report, going into very specific metrics about the bitcoin network. One of those is, what I interpret as, the liquidity of circulating supply and its correlation to price. As you can see in the chart above, the shaped areas represent coins that have moved within a 3-month period. It is related to velocity, but where velocity is concerned with the number of transactions, liquidity of circulating supply is a percent of the total supply that has moved at least once.
The percentage of supply that becomes liquid begins to ramp up as the price approaches peaks, and resets lower as price consolidates. The pattern is emerging of lower top-level circulating supply and lower lows. That makes sense if we think in terms of purchasing power at the tops and bottoms. In other words, each peak is a lower number of satoshis but a higher level of purchasing power, since the price is significantly higher. And vice versa, the lows are a lower number of satoshis but a higher level of purchasing power.
If bitcoin is going to continue appreciating in value, we would expect that exact pattern to continue. As new entrants come into the market they will find fewer satoshis to buy, even in times of FOMO.
Stablecoins as Collateral and Holders of Sovereign Debt The next part of our discussion blew me away. Dylan brought the rise of stablecoins like Tether that are growing in use as collateral for leveraged trades in bitcoin. In the past, people tended to use their bitcoin as collateral, which acted to accentuate price moves. With stablecoins taking more of that role, it should lead to much less volatility in the bitcoin price.
Dylan also mentioned the fact that Tether and other stablecoins provide a small much noticeable buy pressure for US government securities. They have these very large reserves of dollars that they need to put into safe assets. What’s better for this than US Treasuries?
I make a connection that the typical list of foreign holders of US government debt should be expanded to include, not just foreign central banks, but perhaps in the future, companies like Tether. How crazy would it be to see Tether with just as many US Treasuries as countries like Germany, China or Japan? This would instantly make Tether and other stablecoins massive geopolitical players.
Federal Reserve and Rate Hikes On the day of recording this livestream, March 1, 2022, bond markets were swinging wildly. So, we examined just what was happening and gave our listeners some expectations for the rest of the year.
SWIFT Alternatives, Gold, and Russia We end the episode with some talk about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, as regards the sanctions of the SWIFT network. The only viable alternative on the horizon is Bitcoin. The much discussed Russia/China alternative is in its infancy and still uses banks as nodes which are vulnerable to sanctions. Gold is not an option for quick international settlement, and will likely suffer price declines in this situation because Russia needs to access dollars, and can sell gold to do that.
The Russia/China interbank alternative is not an alternative banking or financial system, it is just a messaging protocol. It is in the same boat as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), it’s new but not revolutionary. It still has all the points of failure like corrupt institutions and rails of the past. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is fundamentally a new system, with a new monetary unit. It is the only thing at this time that fits the bill as an alternative to SWIFT and the decrepit fiat system.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, CK and I had the opportunity to sit down and have an epic conversation with Log Scale of twitter, and host of The Bitcoin Spot series of Twitter Spaces, and new YouTube channel. This episode is a big white pill for those down about the recent price dip and who think of the US as an evil empire. We get into many aspects of institutional client money coming into bitcoin this year, and why the US is likely to be one of the most friendly bitcoin jurisdictions in the future.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening is what we are about here at Fed Watch.
A Valuation Model for Bitocin Log Scale had a very interesting Twitter thread several weeks ago. The first part of this episode is him laying out the arguments he made there. Corporate treasuries diversifying into bitcoin has been a major source of optimism in bitcoin over the last year or two, but Log says they are only 2% of all investable wealth in the world. Signs are starting to shift toward the other $500 trillion are looking at bitcoin, too.
You can find estimates for total investable wealth from several sources. Log cites Credit Suisse in this episode and McKinsey in his tweet thread. Both have a multi-hundred trillion dollar estimate.
Of course, every dollar that is used to buy bitcoin is not going to have a 1:1 effect on the bitcoin market cap. The multiplier is not a steady variable, the Bank of America has estimated it at 107x, but in his conservative valuation model, Log uses 3x. Now, what his model needs is an estimate for the amount of money that will come into bitcoin.
For this he draws from the very well-respected Ric Edelman’s 2022 predictions for bitcoin. He is “Edelman, one of the most prominent thought leaders in the investment advisory field and founder of Edelman Financial Engines.” Nearly all of his 2021 predictions proved correct, and this year he has some big ones. He says that by the end of the year, 1) 1/3rd of Americans will own bitcoin, and 2) financial advisors will be recommending between 3-5% allocation to bitcoin.
With those numbers, Log’s valuation model is just a matter of plugging in the numbers, yielding a result that the bitcoin market cap could increase by $11 trillion this year.
Gensler and Why the US will be Friendly to Bitcoin The next part of the podcast might be controversial. We spend some time discussing Gary Gensler and possible reasons behind his appointment as Chairman of the SEC at such a pivotal time, with such a clear pro-bitcoin bias.
Most people think that the US government will fight bitcoin adoption, but Log Scale explains why they aren’t special, bitcoin’s incentives work on regulators the exact same way as everyone else. As an aside, we see that blatantly in the Ukraine and Russia at the moment, with friendly bitcoin policies coming about due to the rich and powerful there owning a lot of bitcoin.
If the US government is worried about losing its supposed currency advantage, it’s easy enough for them to buy bitcoin and back the dollar. If the choice is between losing global dominance of the dollar or buying bitcoin, that is an easy choice. There is no downside for the US government. The other option, fight it and impose sanctions, on top of being politically unpopular with the 1/3rd of Americans that will own bitcoin, it risks losing.
Back to Gensler. Log Scale tells us that Gensler is a big admirer of Satoshi and taught a course on bitcoin/blockchain at MIT prior to becoming Chairman of the SEC. The one outstanding qualification Gensler had over other options for the SEC was that he is an expert and the lover of bitcoin.
Q&A about Powell and Fed Policy At the end of the show, Log Scale and CK had to leave, but there was still a few minutes to fill on the Livestream segment, before the next guest came on. This gave me a great opportunity to answer some questions from the Livestream host Q about Powell, their likely policy path this year, and other topics around central banking.
It is a recurring theme of questions I receive that people think the Fed is going to crash the market by raising interest rates. However, the powerful insight is that the markets are in control, not the Fed. The Fed’s job is to predict where the market will be in 6-12 months, sometimes 24 months, and position a narrative for their monetary policy to be ahead of that move. The most they can do is try to mold market sentiment.
If their monetary tools actually worked as they are believed to, through concrete quantitative effects, they wouldn’t need such tailored and precise language, and there wouldn’t be so much confusion on the path of inflation or the economy. The Fed could just adjust the dials to get the economy they wanted. That’s not the case.
Listen to the end to get more truth bombs on what’s coming in 2022 from the Fed.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch, CK and I catch up on the Freedom Convoy donation situation, dissect Jon Stewart’s wake up call with James Hoenig, former Fed President, Fed signaling around CPI and the emergency FOMC meeting, and lastly the scandal that is brewing around Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination being delayed. This is a longer episode where we just let the conversation go where it wants to.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening, is what we are about here at Fed Watch.
Crowdfunding with Bitcoin The donation drama around GoFundMe and GiveSendGo has now spilled over to the Bitcoin fundraiser on Tallycoin. As a quick update, GiveSendGo refused to comply with the Canadian court order to freeze the Freedom Convoy funds, however, when they distributed some of the funds to Canadian bank accounts, the funds to the peaceful protestors were frozen on the bank's side. This highlights the multiple layers of censorship that the legacy financial system has, and the need for bitcoin.
The honkhonkhodl fundraiser is also running into a few hiccups due to the illegal invocation of the Emergency Act in Canada. The fundraiser had to be stopped because the public faces of the campaign could become targets of the out of control Gestapo government up there.
Overall, the Tallycoin fundraiser was a great success and the community learned some very important lessons. The keys to the bitcoin have now been distributed and sending of the funds to the protestors has started.
There was also a hack of the GiveSendGo campaign which doxxed 90,000 donors, the amounts they donated, and other personal information. It showed that roughly 45% of the funds came from Americans, not Canadians. This opened the door for dishonest rhetoric from the government calling it “foreign funding” of an insurrection, instead of just Americans and Canadians coming together for freedom. This rhetoric fits into the mold of the “Russia hoax” and is a sign of a government that has totally abandoned its duty to serve the people.
Federal Reserve tries to explain debt-based money On the show, we watch a clip of former Kansas City Fed President, James Hoenig, trying to explain money printing to Jon Stewart. It’s absolutely hilarious to watch Stewart being red pilled on the financial system in real time.
I believe that Hoenig is attempting to explain it all in good faith, but makes a couple mistakes. 1) he says the Fed is the only source of money printing. That is empirically false and misleading, because commercial banks are the source of money printing when they make loans. The Fed only prints reserves, an illiquid asset. 2) Hoenig says that bitcoin is faith-based like the dollar. Instead, bitcoin is not faith-based debt like the dollar, it is a real form of commodity-backed money.
The part Stewart cannot wrap his head around is, if the Fed prints money, why can’t they print money to pay off all our government debt? A very important question. Hoenig tries to explain that all they can do is an asset swap (QE), where they trade an asset (the debt they are trying to get rid of) for a reserve (an illiquid replacement asset, not real money). It is confusing because Hoenig says they print money in one breath and then says they don’t print money, they print debt in the next.
CPI Panic The January CPI print sent shockwaves through the markets this week. Immediately, the market began pricing in an inter-meeting rate hike, and a 50 bps hike at the March FOMC meeting. The Fed played along, calling an emergency meeting that met on Monday, Feb 14th, to discuss the situation. By that time however, the market had settled down and was no longer pricing in the inter-meeting hike.
There is general agreement amongst FOMC members that a March rate hike is appropriate, but that is about all they agree on. They are in the same boat as everyone else, watching the market and waiting.
Sarah Bloom Raskin Delay My latest op-ed on Raskin was well-timed. We discuss the growing scandal that Senator Lummis bravely started in the Senate Banking Committee hearing last week, and which now has led to, at least, a delay in Raskin’s appointment. From my article:
The real fireworks started at the 1:55:50 mark, when Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, a friend of Bitcoin, took the mic and absolutely grilled Raskin about Federal Reserve master account access, and her possible indecent connection to the one and only fintech company with a master account, which received that master account while Raskin was on its board in 2018.
Lummis laid out compelling circumstantial evidence that Raskin served at the Fed from 2010 to 2014, then the Treasury from 2014 to 2017. After her time in government, she joined the board of Reserve Trust in Colorado, which was denied a master account in 2017, but then was granted a master account after Raskin made a call to the St. Louis Federal Reserve on its behalf.
Again, it’s important to note that it is the only non-bank to be given that honor, even as dozens in Lummis’ home state of Wyoming have failed to make headway in the last two-and-a-half years. A year after the master account was secured, Raskin left the board, bought out for $1.5 million. Mic drop.
Sarah Bloom Raskin is a globalist pick who promises to bring a progressive political bent to the Federal Reserve. She is friends with bitcoin enemy Senator Elizabeth Warren and is the wife of highly partisan Jamie Raskin. The delay of her appointment is a silent battle in the informal fight between the globalist progressive Davos crowd and the nationalist-oriented crowd, which Powell represents. That’s my take on things at least.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch, we get an update on the European Central Bank (ECB), use a candy to make the Bank of Japan interesting, and we talk about recent troubles with BlockFi and bitcoin lending.
Fed Watch is a podcast for people interested in central bank current events. Bitcoin will consume central banks one day, understanding and documenting how that is happening, that’s where this show lives.
Inflation in Europe European inflation numbers for January 2022 came out this week, and set another Euro-era record at 5.1%, up from 5.0% in December. This consumer price increase of 5.1% must be in context of the worst energy and supply chain crisis in two generations.
The price of natural gas and electricity have exploded in Europe, which has a trickle down effect on most prices in the economy. These price increases are not a direct side-effect of money printing, they are a direct effect of the pandemic response of nearly shutting down the global economy for two years.
We attempted to play the below 2 minute clip of President Lagarde speaking about inflation, but the audio on the livestream wasn’t set up properly. You can also find the full length press conference here.
<> https://youtu.be/f8MQ_Cn2Uck
Comparing the Politics of the ECB and Federal Reserve I spent some time on the podcast comparing the highly produced press conference style of the ECB to that of the Federal Reserve. LaGarde appears to have a checklist of special interest groups that she must mention and placate. It strikes me as a political process, where Jerome Powell strikes me as much more concerned about the economics.
It is a central part of the Federal Reserve to stay fiercely independent from politics, as seen in the Raskin interview in front of the Senate Banking Committee. Her progressive views were on trial, and they wanted to make sure she wouldn’t be bringing her politics to a job at the Fed. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, conflates politics as part of their mandate.
European Policy Guidance for 2022 In the press conference, LaGarde said they’d let their QE programs run their course and finish up in late-March to early-April. That was not surprising. However, what did surprise the market was the fact that LaGarde would not repeat her statement from December’s press conference where she said the ECB would not raise rates in 2022.
The reason the market didn’t like this seemingly small detail is because it makes the ECB appear capricious. Compared to Powell, where he made his pivot and doubled down on it later, LaGarde does not give the sense of being confident in her opinions or evaluation of the economy. I attribute this to the overly politicized ECB, by the way. They are unable to focus on a clear mandate, because their policy is being pulled in political directions.
European Credit Spreads and Redenomination Risk This is where I tie all these things back to bitcoin. Credit spreads in Europe have been spiking recently. France’s 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) is priced at 20, Italy at 103, Spain 40, and Greece at 127. As the spread between these CDS contracts widens, investors face an increasing implied redenomination risk (possibility of an exit from the Euro).
Over the last couple of weeks, as these CDS spreads have increased, so has the price of bitcoin. Greg Foss talked about this when he came on Fed Watch a couple of months ago. As sound money without counterparty risk, Bitcoin should correlate with CDS prices and the redenomination risk in Europe.
I’ll be watching these prices closely for any correlation in coming months, but it is a good sign for bitcoin that it performed positively as stresses in Europe have increased this week.
Japan The Bank of Japan has been the most consistent over the last few decades. They have done the most Quantitative Easing (QE) by far of any central bank, yet they struggle with low growth, low inflation, low interest rates (these things always go together by the way, as I wrote here).
After three decades of ultra-low inflation, I read a story about Umaibo, a snack item in Japan, that has been selling for 10 yen a piece for 40 years, but is raising their price now to 12 yen. Gasp, the horror.
Some people think this development, along with the recent creeping up of the 10-year Japanese Government Bond rate to 21 bps is a sign that inflation might be coming to Japan, too.
I highly doubt it. The amount of QE the BOJ has done over the last 20 years puts the Federal Reserve to shame, and is not stimulus. Long term QE actually hangs over the economy as a wet blanket on any growth. Just compare the three major central banks, the Fed, the ECB and the BOJ. Their CPI inflation rates are in opposite order to the ranking of the central bank balance sheet as a percent of GDP. The more QE a central bank does, the lower the CPI inflation rate.
Bitcoin’s Credit Market and BlockFi We end the show this week by talking about the nascent bitcoin credit market. A central player in this ecosystem is BlockFi, and they have been at the center of a growing scandal in bitcoin.
A post on the company's own subreddit went viral. In the post, an individual relates that BlockFi called in his loan due to the bitcoins he used having a history of mixing. It is a very bad sign for many BlockFi customers, who probably mix their coins as part of a routine in good financial hygiene.
Another development this week is the raising of minimum withdrawal limits from BlockFi. Again, via the company’s subreddit:
“At this time we are only supporting wire withdrawals of $50,000 USD or more for US-based clients, or $5,000 USD for international. Since we don't support ACH withdrawals for international clients at this time, I might recommend withdrawing to a different platform/exchange that can. This is specifically why we offer 1 stablecoin (plus BTC or LTC) withdrawal per month.” - u/Brandon_BlockFi, Community Manager
Lastly, BlockFi has downgraded their interest terms to very low levels. The new Tier 1 (<0.1 btc) offers 4.5%. However, if you were to have over the minimum withdrawal amount of $50,000, you’d be in Tier 3 (>0.35 btc) earning only 0.1% on your bitcoin.
Something is very fishy about what is going on at BlockFi. There are alternatives in the bitcoin ecosystem. Ledn is one, Hodlhodl is another. Be very careful with bitcoin lending.
That does it for this week. Thanks to the watchers and listeners. If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch, we have a Twitter Spaces recording of an event that took place in January of this year. The topic is inflation vs deflation, but turns into an introduction to the debate, instead of the debate itself. It is great for anyone to get started trying to understand the deflationary side of the credit bubble.
In the second half of the call we do get more into the details. The how and why of CPI, US Treasuries, interest rates, yield curves, it’s all in there.
Links to Participants in Inflation vs Deflation debate Mitch (host)
Alex Gladstein
Joe Carlesare
Matthew Pines
Jay Gould
John Farkoury
Kent Polkinghorne
T.I.N.A.
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'', I fly solo without Christian, but get to interact with the livestream fellas at Bitcoin Magazine, Q and Alex, and answer some questions from the live audience.
Topics for this episode were the new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board, the Arizona bill to make bitcoin legal tender, Evergrande and China, and finally the IMF forecast for GDP in 2022.
Raskin for Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve This month Biden announced his nominees to replace Rosengren, Kaplan and Quarles at the Federal Reserve, three board members who stepped down in 2021. Of most note was the nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin to fill Quarles’ Vice Chair seat, and his role as Head of Supervision.
This is a controversial nomination, because Raskin is a radical progressive. She served at the Fed previously during the Obama administration, so is no stranger to the Fed. She is a big supporter of using Fed policies and powers over banking regulations to promote a progressive political agenda, like climate initiatives.
Raskin also draws a hard line on bitcoin and private sector digital alternatives to the USD. She favors the unrestrained use of Fed regulatory powers to control bitcoin and other innovation in the currency space. As for Central Bank Digital Currencies, it is safe to say that she’d agree with those other progressive central bankers like Christine LaGarde, who want to pursue a CBDC.
Arizona Bill to Make Bitcoin Legal Tender In our coverage of the Arizona bill to make bitcoin legal tender, I recap the situation and put it in context of GDP size. The Arizona GDP is $375 billion where the El Salvador GDP is $25 billion.
As for the legal issues, it is plainly unconstitutional, because the States are not allowed to make anything other than gold and silver legal tender. In an interesting turn, would the federal government actually pursue Arizona in this case since the current USD does not fit the definition either?
We’ll have to wait and see how this turns out. What we can say now is that it is a big win already for bitcoin in shifting the Overton Window to include this debate.
China nationalizing property market Long time listeners of Fed Watch will know we talk about China a lot. In this episode, I give a quick update on things happening right now in regards to the communists, Evergrande, and real estate in general.
This month, State Owned Enterprises (SOE) were exempted from the 3-red lines in a de facto, slow motion nationalization of the real estate market in China. This is a big change in how the real estate industry in China is structured, and marks the end of growth in my opinion.
Another development we cover is the gigantic secondary market of suppliers around the real estate industry starting to go under. Each large developer in China has an army of suppliers for furniture, plumbing, electrical, metal, concrete, landscaping, etc. These dependent companies are no small fish either. Some of them can be $1 billion companies.
I use this as an example of how central planning never works. These are the second and third order effects that those technocrats and authoritarians on high, do not or cannot take into account.
Conclusion I end by using the IMF GDP forecasts for 2022 to circle back on the Federal Reserve and their predicted policy path for 2022. Will the Fed be able to raise rates in the middle of the year when the global economy is slowing and everywhere is slipping back into recession?
This is an important time for the bitcoin economy to attract capital flight from the atrophy of the legacy economy, and show what it's made of.
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments and premier Eurodollar expert, for a conversation about the current and changing state of the global financial system.
We cover LIBOR and SOFR, the Federal Reserve hawkish pivot, what we can learn from yield curves, and of course, bitcoin.
Why LIBOR and SOFR are important Deep in the heart of the Eurodollar system was the London Interbank Offer Rate, known as LIBOR. It was the rate that banks charged each other to borrow money. Since it acted as a Fed Funds rate of sorts for the international Eurodollar system, it was the rate at which informed all the other rates above it.
For years, the Federal Reserve and other central banks had been trying to get rid of LIBOR and it seems they might have done it this time. In 2022, “financial firms using LIBOR face legal, operational, credit, regulatory, and reputational risk,” according to a Congressional Research Service (CRS) document published on Dec 15, 2021.
Jeff's comments were insightful around why it had taken so long to move away from LIBOR and that the transition will take until at least June 2023 when the last futures contracts using LIBOR expire.
The replacement offered by the Federal Reserve is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), while private firms like Bloomberg are also offering alternatives. There is no clear winner at this time, and it might be that there isn’t one for a prolonged period of time.
LIBOR was an emergent market phenomenon that allowed Eurodollars contracts to eat the financial world. From the above document, in 2020, LIBOR was referenced in $223 trillion worth of contracts. That’s a lot of unwinding, and Jeff mentioned that in stopping the market from using LIBOR, regulators opened up much more systemic risk and uncertainty.
For my part, I think this a fantastic opportunity to observe how the system adapts to a fundamental change. One day, it will have to happen when they adopt bitcoin, so this experiment is one where we can get some data.
Exploring Reasons for the Hawkish Fed Pivot I couldn’t let Jeff come on the show and not ask him what his thoughts are on the recent Jerome Powell flip-flopping. His response centered around the Fed being worried that the confusion and discontent over the world “transitory” was going to filter through to longer run consumer and business inflation expectations. That’s what the Fed has wanted since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), but now they are worried inflation expectations will become too high.
Jeff points out that inflation and growth expectations have actually been falling as the Fed has been pivoting hawkish (not after!). The 5y 5y forward is falling below 2% and the IMF has released their January updated GDP estimates for 2022, three months after their previous estimate, cutting US growth by 1.2% to 4 percent, and global growth to 4.4%.
Next, we try to get into the head of the central banker and discuss other reasons Jerome Powell might have made this hawkish move, like to give room for future rate cuts and restarting of QE. What would the Fed do in the coming downturn if they were still at full throttle, rates at zero and QE at $120/month? That is the ECB’s current situation by the way.
Yield Curves look more like Japan than Recovery Jeff is a yield curve whisperer. I ask him specifically about one of his recent points he made about the US yield curve is more like Japan, in the lost two decade sense, than any sort of recovery.
He launches into a great explanation. I’ll quote at length because it’s that good.
What we would expect to see if things are going from very wrong, which means low nominal levels, to something better than very wrong, or even normal, we would expect the yield curve to first steepen way out, nominal rates, especially the longer end to rise much more rapidly than those at the short end. And that would tell us, “OK, maybe there's a regime change. Maybe we're getting away from this Japan deflationary scenario, it's something better.”
It started to be the case early last year, late 2020 and early 2021, particularly January and February of 2021, when the yield curve did steepen out. The yield curve told us at that time, essentially because it was low still and not really transitioning all that much, but it was transitioning that the market was becoming a little bit more optimistic. If only relative to 2020. Which is not a very high standard for comparison. But it never really progressed much more than that. The yield curve always stayed low and flat, even though it had steepened out.
Now ever since March of last year, it has remained essentially that way, but it has flattened even more, because now we have the Fed coming in with its with its rate hikes expected for this year, which has had the effect of boosting short term interest rates without boosting long term interest rates. Now we have a flattening yield curve at an incredibly low level that never really got outside the Japanese range, for lack of a better term, which means the yield curve is telling us not inflation, more deflationary risks.
Jeff Snider’s thoughts on Bitcoin Jeff has been on Fed Watch two previous times. Each time, we discussed bitcoin. He recently has been doing some different media where he gets to talk about bitcoin, so we were wondering if his opinions had changed at all.
He is not anti-bitcoin. He likes bitcoin and wishes it luck, but doesn’t fully embrace it. His main hurdle in fully embracing it is important, and bitcoiners would be well served by listening to him and trying to answer it instead of dismissing it. I personally disagree, but he is coming from a vast knowledge of the current system.
The bottom line is he doesn’t see a route to bitcoin being a transactional currency. He does see it as a store of value, but not able to get to a medium of exchange. The problem for Jeff is its lack of elasticity.
Overall, it’s a rational argument and worth engaging with. I think I’ll write a future post for Bitcoin Magazine about precisely this criticism. Stay tuned.
Thanks to Jeff Snider for coming on. It was a great conversation!
If you enjoy this content please SUBSCRIBE, and REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE!
This episode is dedicated to the Tongan recovery. Follow @LordFusitua on twitter for updates. You can find a donation link here.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down with Dylan LeClair to talk about all Federal Reserve news, rate hikes, balance sheet normalization (QT), US government austerity, and world news. Dylan is the Head of Market Research for Bitcoin Magazine and produces the Deep Dive, a series of daily, monthly, and yearly newsletter updates on the bitcoin market. We loved getting his take on many of the central bank topics we talk about on the show.
Follow CK_snarks or myself on Twitter at our links above to get notified on Tuesday before we go live, or mark your calendars for 2pm Eastern on Tuesdays.
If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and like on YouTube and subscribe and review on iTunes to help others find the show. Don’t forget to Share, Share, Share.
December FOMC Minutes and the Powell Pivot We jump right into the FOMC minutes from December, which we wanted to cover on last week’s show, but YouTube had other plans. Analysts expected to read about the accelerated taper and even the beginning of rate hikes in 2022. What they got was a big hawkish surprise.
Not only did the Federal Reserve Board talk about those things, they said it might be necessary to accelerate rate hikes and begin balance sheet normalization. That’s central-bank-speak for Quantitative Tightening (QT), the opposite of QE. That took the market by surprise sparking a mild sell-off in risk assets and even a slight jump in Treasury bond rates.
From the FOMC minutes:
“Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated.
“Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate.”
In 2018 - 2019, Jerome Powell also presided over a major pivot in monetary policy, at that time from tightening to easing. Now, in Powell Pivot #2, he is rapidly moving from easy monetary policy to tightening, even faster than in 2019.
Biden Paints the Federal Reserve as Hawks and the Administration as Doves In a speech, President Biden was speaking about the solution to the rising price of cars. “Either you increase supply by making more of them, or you decrease demand by making Americans poorer.” The administration has set itself up as trying to do the former, with their massive spending bills that have not passed through Congress. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has completely changed gears in the last 4 months and could be interpreted as pursuing the latter, imposing austerity.
On the podcast, we discussed the possibility of this being political positioning, especially in how close it is to Powell’s reappointment. Almost simultaneously, as his reappointment was secure, he switched to uber-hawk.
Dylan asked why Powell would even want reappointment, it’s a horrible job after all. My response won’t be popular with sound money advocates that hate the Federal Reserve, but I said it might be because he is actually patriotic. He has avoided any CBDC and ESG initiatives, breaking with the Davos globalist group represented by the ECB, the IMF and the EU. He serves American banking interests and might think the alternative, Lael Brainard, would sell the US out to the globalists (probably right about that).
Chinese Communist Party Surprise Rate Cut and Country Garden On Monday, the CCP’s Peoples’ Bank of China cut their target interest rate by 0.1% from 2.95% to 2.85%. This comes just days after the largest property developer in China, Country Garden, failed to complete a $300 million bond issue for the lack of buyers.
This is a major sign of weakness in the Chinese economy despite exports to the US going up 28% in 2021. The Chinese economy is still struggling with a crashing real estate market, and we all know that you might be able to delay a crash but you can never avoid it.
Country Garden has been China’s largest property developer for several years and it was important for it to be seen as the picture of health in order to manage the real estate collapse. Now, Country Garden is seen as perhaps the last straw that will break the camel’s back.
Without China, the global economy will be forced into austerity and readjustment. Some emerging markets will benefit, while others will be completely destroyed. And that will lead us into the group of final topics.
IMF Warning for Emerging Markets, Kazakhstan, and Tonga At the end of the show, with our time slot on the livestream running short, we quickly cover the events in Kazakhstan. Of course, there is a lot of bitcoin mining there after many fled China after 2021’s crackdown. They unexpectedly walked right into a regional chessboard that will likely continue to be wartorn.
From a macro perspective, oil production is likely the biggest fallout from this brief conflict. Most of the oil and gas in Kazakhstan is controlled by western companies like Chevron and Shell. If it is nominally under Russian control, will Russian sanctions be applied to it? If so, 1 million barrels per day of oil might not make it to market anymore, leading to an exacerbation of price rises.
In a blog post from the IMG they warn emerging markets that a hard pivot by the Federal Reserve to tightening could dramatically affect emerging markets and their currencies. We’ve talked about this a bunch on the show, that as the US dollar strengthens, these emerging markets will struggle, especially the further they are geographically from the US.
Lastly, in sad news, Tonga was heavily affected by a volcanic eruption over the weekend. We talked about that on the show and got a link from a source we trust for people to donate. It was just in the last episode that we talked about Tonga perhaps adopting bitcoin this year, and this week we have this in the news.
We are wishing the Tongan people all the best and a speedy recovery.
If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and review on iTunes to help others find the show. Don’t forget to Share, Share, Share.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner record LIVE on their YouTube channel as part of their nearly daily livestream. During these shows, Alex McShane hosts a multi-hour collection of content producers live recording and community events like contests and raffles. Follow CK or myself on Twitter or Gettr to get notified on Tuesday before we go live, or mark your calendars for 2pm Eastern on Tuesdays.
If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and review on iTunes to help others find the show. Don’t forget to Share, Share, Share.
This week we review 2021 as major trends and news items and then dive into predictions for 2022 trends.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, I go over European energy charts and talk about the broader macro landscape in Europe. Once again, this was recorded LIVE on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. If you’d like to watch live, subscribe there and follow us on Twitter to get updates of times we will be on. As we get a hang of Livestreaming the show, we will be able to answer live questions from the chat for audience interaction.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Dylan LeClair to go over on-chain data from his popular Deep Dive newsletter. We also tied it into some macro topics involving bitcoin and central banking. Once again, this was recorded LIVE on the Bitcoin Magazine YouTube channel. If you’d like to watch live, subscribe there and follow us on Twitter to get updates of times we will be on. As we get a hang of Livestreaming the show, we will be able to answer live questions from the chat for audience interaction.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down for our first ever livestream as part of the new Bitcoin Magazine livestream. Going forward, we will be recording live at approximately 2pm eastern time every Tuesday. Come join us and as we get a hang of it, we might be able to answer live questions from the chat.
This week we go on a whirlwind tour of macro. First, we listen and respond to three clips of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of Congress where he retired the term “transitory”. Next, we do a quick reading from an IMF blog post on the debt crisis in low-income countries. Third, we discuss the central bank of China, the PBoC, cutting their reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps and the default of Evergrande. Lastly, we riff on bitcoin and cover several of our ongoing thesis about macro and geopolitics, why we are bullish on the US and bearish on Europe. Huge live show, I think you all will really enjoy this one.
Fed’s Powell Retires “Transitory” We have three clips of Powell that we listen to. Each allows us to discuss different aspects of the Fed, their monetary policy, and perhaps tease out their inner thoughts. So many pundits and analysts of the Fed don’t even watch the actual testimony. They get riled up by headlines or some journalist’s take of what Powell said. The general, sound-money oriented public has a bias of thinking these people are evil. We think central bankers are misguided and partial, but we actually watch the testimony to form our own opinions, and take you along with us.
Our discussion includes parts on transitory or not, a global low interest rate environment, inflation forecasting problems based on non-linear supply side effects, and whether the taper will be accelerated or not.
IMF Sees Economic Collapse in Low-income Countries In a blog post on December 2nd, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, says, “We may see economic collapse in some countries unless G20 creditors agree to accelerate debt restructurings and suspend debt service while the restructurings are being negotiated.”
This is very worrying. These countries have had 12-18 months of deferment on their international loans, yet they still cannot pay them? If they are unable to pay them after a year-long deferment, what makes anyone think that restructuring will help?
These countries are in real trouble, and that fits with our thesis that emerging markets benefitted over the last 50 years of an easy credit environment. Now that the easy credit environment is over, they are going to face extreme burdens in continuing their previous level of economic activity.
China Cuts RRR for Banks and Evergrande Default Our last stop is China. We covered the Fed, we brought Europe into our discussion, and now we cover the People’s Bank of China. This week they announced a 50 bps cut to their Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) freeing up ¥1.2 trillion in the hopes that banks will go out and lend.
This follows a similar cut earlier this year in July, which supposedly freed up ¥1 trillion. It must not have had the intended effect, or the economy is much worse than earlier estimates, because why would they have to do it again, and/or why would they expect better results this time?
If banks are not lending, it’s not because they don’t have the reserves. There have been empirical studies relating to RRR, banks lend first, then go out and find the needed reserves. Giving banks room in the RRR does not make them want to go out and lend.
This also occurs right when Evergrande is facing imminent default of the offshore debt, if it hasn’t defaulted yet at the time of writing. Reports are that Evergrande will default on $19 billion in international bonds and the second largest international debtor in their real estate sector, Kaisa, has also defaulted on $12 billion in offshore debt. The contagion continues.
Lastly, we compare and contrast the sentiment in recent statements from the PBoC and the Fed. The global financial reality is very similar for these two countries, indeed they are very closely intermingled, yet where Powell paints the story that the economy is doing very well, and there is a danger toward too much growth and inflation, the PBoC says according the South China Morning Post, a state-connect English language news outlet out of Hong Kong, the central bank needs to “inject liquidity support into the economy in advance, to cope with potential challenges ahead.” The contrast is apparent. The Fed is providing positive forward guidance and the PBoC is negative.
If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and review on iTunes to help others find the show.
Links * Powell testimony clip #1: https://youtu.be/JJxqiyKIEW8?t=1937
-
Powell testimony clip #2: https://youtu.be/JJxqiyKIEW8?t=3596
-
Powell testimony clip #3: https://youtu.be/JJxqiyKIEW8?t=4092
-
IMF blog: https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/02/the-g20-common-framework-for-debt-treatments-must-be-stepped-up/
-
China RRR cut: https://archive.ph/1KRUJ
-
Evergrande default: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/developer-china-evergrandes-shares-set-rise-66-restructuring-looms-2021-12-07/
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Tom Luongo of Gold Goats & Guns to talk about Europe and central bank politics. We go into the weeds, what’s happening behind closed doors as it were, in a discussion you won’t find on any other show. Tom’s theories revolve around his idea of the primarily European/Western elites which he sums up as Davos man. It’s a wide-ranging discussion which I outline below.
You can find all of Tom’s content on his website. I recommend going back to episode 75-77 to get a summary of Davos man and his geopolitical framework. Tom is a long time bitcoin advocate, so of course, we discuss what bitcoin means geopolitically in this time of great change.
Who or what is Davos man? I read a post from Tom Luongo that was syndicated to Zerohedge several months ago. In that post he was calling the European elites “Davos man”. I was struck by this framing, because it perfectly sums up the elites of the declining world order in my general geopolitical framework. Tom describes them as, “all the people who think they run the world.” Their calling cards are globalization, international institutions (like NATO, the EU and the UN), climate change, and a global tax regime. He sums it up as “communists”, I’d add to that that they are global communists.
The goal of Davos is to reverse WWII, where European economies were destroyed and capital fled to the US. This time, they want to cause global chaos outside of Europe, and make the EU the center for capital flight in the coming decades.
Powell and Davos Tom frames the current struggle as a battle between Davos man and Wall St. Powell is not Janet Yellen; he is loyal to US money interests in a way that contradicts Davos’ full court press against the world.
Tom filled in our blanks on why Powell is different. For the last year, Christian and I, on FedWatch have been saying Powell is a “straight shooter”. We sensed he was different than the typical central bank elite. Now I see that this central banking elite is part of the Davos world order.
Powell has stiff-armed Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and provided monetary facilities that have maintained US dollar dominance in the global financial system. Tom goes into why his renomination is so important, because it is like drawing a red line, the US will not play Davos’ game anymore. Cinderella favorite Lael Brainard, who was passed up for Chairman because her appointment by the Senate was questionable, and her deep connections to the CCP through her husband have surfaced.
World tour of geopolitics In the second half of the show, our conversation gets into the weeds on specific hotspots around the world. We and Tom are in agreement that Europe is in a lot of trouble. But where I am concerned about Russia’s natural geopolitical drive for strategic depth and their waning demographic time bomb, Luongo is not as worried because Russia does not want to be dragged into a war. To give you an idea of the ground we cover quickly at the end of the podcast, we brought in Afghanistan and why that was such a pivotal event, MacKinder and Brzezinski’s Heartland Theory, and the US’ return to non-interventionism.
If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and review on iTunes to help others find the show.
Links * Tom Luongo Blog https://tomluongo.me/ * Tom Luongo YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC54PyZuVrDrhbWc6UqNjEBA * We Have Entered The Eye Of Davos' Storm https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-we-have-entered-eye-davos-storm * Have we reached peak Davos? https://tomluongo.me/2021/11/21/have-we-finally-reached-peak-davos/ * Lael Brainard’s connection to the CCP https://thenationalpulse.com/news/biden-fed-chair-ties-to-ccp/
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Check it out for free here!
deepdivebtc.substack.com/welcome
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
After a week off due to illness, we’re back with a new episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast. In this one, Christian Keroles and I sit down to talk about the mysterious competitive world of central banking. Topics include Powell’s reappointment and, funnily enough, what it means for the ECB. There is an epic pivot in loyalties happening right now, as the Fed takes to heart its role as the US central bank and distances itself from a responsibility to Europe.
0:00 Welcome to Fed Watch #71
1:30 Comparing US Inflation to the ECB and BOJ
2:55 Tom Luongo the next Fed Watch Guest
3:38 Reappointing Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman
7:33 Central Banks Adressen Stabl eCoins, Bitcoin And Crypto Assets
12:37 The ECB and Central Bank digital Currencies
13:07 Europe is under Pressure
16:53 Bitcoin can Benefit from The current Situation in the EU
18:28 Speculative Attacks with Bitcoin
22:36 Europe in the weakest Makro Position
23:45 The Current Bitcoin Price Action
28:51 Go Follow: @AnselLindner & @Ck_Snarks
We start the episode with our first trivia winner. I wanted people to answer the question, if central bank balance sheets matter, why are the ECB and BOJ’s inflation rates lower and balance sheets higher relative to GDP than the US’s? Mitch (@wittyusername30) had the best answer. Congratulations. To paraphrase: central banks don’t print money, they swap inert reserves for useful collateral. This has a deflationary pressure on the economy. Powell gets renominated as Chairman Powell was renominated by Biden for Fed Chairman, winning out over his competition, Lael Brainard. Several reasons were cited, like Powell's path through Senate confirmation is much easier, while Lael might meet with a split vote along partisan lines in a 50/50 Senate. Also, officials said Powell was being “rewarded” with another term for successfully shepherding the economy through the 2020 Covid recession. I view this appointment as having a deeper meaning.
1) We’ve talked at length on this show about Powell’s refusal to go along with the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) hype. Other central banks are pushing hard for CBDC, and Powell continuously splashes cold water on that idea. This symbolizes a break with globalist interests in favor of American banking interests.
2) Powell has faced rising Progressive opposition from Congress. Crazies, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have attacked him because he is not dovish enough and not buying into the Fed’s role in climate policy. His reappointment is a repudiation of sorts against Progressives and their toxic ESG initiatives.
3) Lael is the more globalist-friendly choice. Powell symbolizes a break with globalists to a more America-centric policy. ECB Regulation and Panic Next, we jump right into ECB news. This week they released a new regulatory framework for electronic payments. The Eurosystem will use the new framework to oversee companies enabling or supporting the use of payment cards, credit transfers, direct debits, e-money transfers and digital payment tokens, including electronic wallets. The PISA framework will also cover crypto-asset-related services, such as the acceptance of crypto-assets by merchants within a card payment scheme and the option to send, receive or pay with crypto-assets via an electronic wallet. ECB Press Release This stands in stark contrast to the US, where the White House and Treasury tried to carve out a bitcoin exception in the recent Infrastructure Bill, which ironically was thwarted by altcoiners wanting to protect scams that are Decentralized In Name Only (DINOs). The ECB is scared that the Euro will lose market share in the years to come, whittling away their “monetary sovereignty”. They want to block competition from dollar stablecoins and bitcoin, while at the same time provide the market with a digital Euro. A digital Euro the market hasn’t seen fit to provide itself by the way. It was during the peak of EDC1, that bitcoin first established itself and rallied in the bitcoin bubble of 2011 to $30. Could we see a repeat 30x rally this time? Probably not that much, but a massive rally is in the cards in the coming year. Thanks for listening. If you found this episode informational, please share and give us a rating on iTunes so others can find the show!
Links
Biden Keeps Powell as Fed Chief, Elevates Brainard to Vice Chair
https://archive.ph/9j4PA
Eurosystem publishes new framework for overseeing electronic payments https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.pr211122~381857cdfe.en.html
Written by Ansel Lindner Economist, bitcoin specialist, and author of the Bitcoin Dictionary and the free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report. Find more from Ansel at the bitcoinandmarkets.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down to give an update on Fed news and central bank activity around the world. Topics in this episode include, people at the Federal Reserve and their positions, the Fed Stability Report, Treasury curve update and inversions, the inflation narrative, ECB and BoJ updates, and of course, bitcoin.
Bitcoin Day Kansas City First, Christian and I debriefed the recent Bitcoin Day event in Kansas City where I spoke about the end of the dollar system as we know it. It was a great event, with another one coming up in Sacramento early next year. I might try getting one down in Jacksonville next year as well, so be watching out for that.
Fed News Next, we jump right into Fed news, starting with the resignation of Quarles. This was kind of a surprise since he had over 10 years left in his term. He has recently faced some backlash from progressive members of Congress, along with Powell, as slightly more hawkish members of the Fed who ignore MMT (modern monetary theory) nut-jobs.
This resignation has a chess move aspect to it. Brainard, who has recently been threatening to take Powell’s job as Chairman, was first favored for Quarles’ position as Head of Supervision. With him gone, Brainard now has an easy path to simply fill that role, leaving Powell basically uncontested for the Chairman reappointment.
These moves might seem insignificant to those who are unaware of the shifting tide within the central bank elite. Most central bankers around the world are looking to MMT and CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) as a way to break out of the debt trap and deflationary environment which the world finds itself in. Powell has the most important central bank job in the world. He has been standing in the way of that dangerous agenda. In a similar fashion to a geopolitical realignment, from NATO to AUKUS, Powell appears to represent the same division, from global concerns to national, within the central bank elites.
Fed Stability Report This week the Federal Reserve published their biannual Stability Report. This report is meant to increase transparency of the Fed, to show the public what they are paying attention to, and what could possibly affect their monetary policy going forward. The main highlights from the report is the Fed’s warning about a rising risk to risk assets. Of course, the mainstream financial press is going to hop on that with their usual gusto.
Another interest warning from the report was about Evergrande and the rising risk of contagion out of China. We’ve been way ahead on this, talking about this very situation for months now. We all know the horrible shape that the Chinese economy is in, and that is slowly working its way into the mainstream investor consciousness.
My prediction, based on the fact that this report came at basically the same time as the taper announcement, is that the Fed is setting up a scapegoat for when they have to eventually halt or reverse course on the taper. They will blame their “policy error” on China and the sheer power of their monetary policy. It’s comical. Their monetary policy literally does nothing, else we’d have no problems to worry about.
US Yield Curve Next we talk about yield curves. We aren’t experts on the bond market, but we know that the bond market is much smarter than we are, and much smarter than the Fed. I highlight that the 20-year and 30-year yields are still inverted, along with the 5-year and 10-year breakevens. The latter being the most inverted in history!
This should tell us that all is not well with this recent market action. Inflation expectations in the future are mixed, signaling a severe retracement in the “recovery” and the CPI.
The inflation narrative is going rabid. It’s gotten to the point where people are making fun of the transitory stance despite all signs to the contrary. It’s as if the critics haven’t looked at a chart recently. But nevermind, the inflation narrative is a huge bonus for bitcoin in the eyes of investors, while at the same time, the deflationary low growth fundamentals are also great for bitcoin.
CPI comes out today, which we predict will be higher than last month (but still in a slowing trend) and cause even more rabid inflation propaganda benefiting bitcoin.
Global Central Bank Update By comparison, there is little news from Europe and the ECB, or Japan and the BoJ. First for the ECB; it seems as though the ECB is a few months behind the Fed and is still driving home the transitory nature of this recent CPI spike. Mind you, their headline CPI was only 3% in September, where the US’s was 5%.
The Bank of Japan has even less news to report on. They are stuck with very low inflation. Their headline number is 0.2%, and less food and energy is -0.5%. This is despite promising and actually being irresponsible in the QE and spending department. The BoJ is failing so badly in getting inflation, they have to come out weekly and reaffirm their dedication to being irresponsible and attempting to hit their 2% target.
Next, I asked the audience to answer a question for this episode on twitter. You have to quote the Bitcoin Magazine tweet for the episode and tag me. “If the US is exporting inflation, why are the ECB and BOJ’s inflation rates so much lower than the US’s, especially when they have “printed” more money relative to GDP?” Why is the relationship actually inverse? The more a central bank seems to expand their balance sheet, the lower the inflation, even then the US is supposedly exporting inflation with the highest trade deficit ever. The best answer wins a copy of the Bitcoin Dictionary.
We wrap up the show by discussing bitcoin in the context of what we are seeing out there in macro. How bitcoin is a source of growth for all who adopt it. We touch on many important topics in this last minute rip, like velocity of money, bitcoin vs traditional interest rates, surging energy prices, ESG shooting itself in the foot, and layer two fee dynamics with the base layer.
Thanks for listening. If you found this episode informational, please share and give us a rating on iTunes so others can find the show!
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Check it out for free here!
deepdivebtc.substack.com/welcome
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down with Dylan LeClair of Bitcoin Magazine’s Deep Dive once again. Dylan is one of the most familiar people with the niche between market technicals and bitcoin fundamentals. It was great to pick his brain over the current Federal Reserve taper and environment in which they are cutting rates. I include as many of the charts we talk about below, but you can also check out the episode on YouTube to see our screen shares.
Dylan was nice enough to share the link directly to his slides here, or check below in the LINKS section.
If you are in the Kansas City area, come out to Bitcoin Day to meet some bitcoiners, listen to some great talks, and network in the bitcoin space. Check out Bitcoinday.io.
LINKS Bank of Canada ends QE bond buying program, a sign that higher rates are coming https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-decision-1.6226796
Bank of England: Four scenarios for the November meeting https://think.ing.com/articles/bank-of-england-four-scenarios-for-the-november-meeting
Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gross-domestic-product-increases-at-2point0percent-annualized-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html
Predictit.org for Fed Chairman https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve
Dylan’s Slides
https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1zsFh4dn3_RgCa2rvH7gE82nPiM_Z48NT2sjfcpqK4FM/edit?usp=sharing
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sit down with Sam Rule for the first time. Sam is a new addition to the Bitcoin Magazine team, researching and writing on their Deep Dive letters and series. His areas of interest are macro and long-term debt cycles, so, we tackle topics like monetary vs fiscal policy, Federal Reserve taper, inflation vs deflation, CPI, labor market, and bond market. He provided a great slide deck of charts where we focus much of the discussion, you can find those here or at the link below, or watch along on YouTube.
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I get you up-to-speed on Jerome Powell’s reappointment as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the recent leaks as an attempt to sabotage that reappointment, and news and the current state of monetary policy at the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Next, we have a lengthy conversation about the geopolitical developments as they pertain to the US, Europe, and the shift to the Pacific, tying in bitcoin as part of the coming great game. Of course, we cover the Bitcoin ETF (BITO) that launched this week. It’s a little bit of a different episode, kind of a “this is where we are in the world of central banking” discussion.
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian and I welcome back Greg Foss to the show to discuss his new articles he’s written on Bitcoin Magazine about Evergrande from a professional in the high yield credit space. We get to know Greg a little better in this one and discuss, not only the facts of the matter on Evergrande and high yield, but also his beloved Canada and some predictions of the future.
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In today's episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s FEDWATCH Podcast, Christian Keroles (CK) and Ansel Lindner are talking the Fed’s impending taper, global supply chains on the brink of collapse, China’s trade war with Australia, widespread blackouts, and so much more! Tuning in, you’ll hear our takes on the stories making headlines as we reflect on expectation management as a policy tool, inflation versus deglobalization, and the ripple effects that increased demand on the retail sector during COVID will have on the global energy crisis. We also touch on how Bitcoin could alleviate the manipulation of monetary policy, the dramatic consequences that a change in behavior can have on the market, and our predictions for bitcoin over the next few months as we continue our wild and bumpy ride, so make sure to tune in today!
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
The story of Evergrande, its larger implications, and the Chinese recession, is a fascinating one, happening in right front of our eyes. In this episode of FEDWATCH, we get to have a closer look at the details surrounding it and reflect on some of the arguments made in Episode 60. To kick things off we get to have a look at the lay of the land, depicting the kind of financial trouble that Evergrande finds itself. They are currently trying to liquidate their assets, including land, apartment units, commercial real estate, and more. The results of this are price decreases for the market and the spread of these effects is quite alarming and pervasive, with real estate being the main form of investment for the Chinese public. To complete this picture, we also discuss the steps the Chinese government is taking, and how these limitations are affecting the culture and the lifestyle of its citizens. We also explore the larger, global implications of this recession for the rest world, and discuss inflation and misallocation. So for all this and more, on an extremely important topic, be sure to listen in with us today!
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
The Deep Dive by Bitcoin Magazine is the most comprehensive, up-to-date newsletter out there. Dylan LeClair is leading this formidable project, and in today’s episode, he joins CK and Ansel Linder to talk about some of the findings from August. Of course, we cannot talk about Bitcoin without touching on the history that is currently being made in El Salvador. We dive into some of the charts that have been included in the report, like hodler net position change chart, the hash rate ribbon chart, and the energy value chart. You may think that a report about Bitcoin only includes insights about Bitcoin, but this is far from true. There are some incredible macro findings, and we talk about issues like debt, inflation, deflation, and even the worldwide semiconductor shortage. We realize how interconnected everything is, which is why talking about it all makes so much sense. Tune in to hear this and so much more!
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
Hosts: Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we respond to Chairman Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole on 27 August. We listen to several important sound bites and discuss it along the way. Powell was expected to announce a Fed taper, where they begin to shrink their monthly purchase of securities in QE.
We have often said that Powell is somewhat of a straight shooter relative to other central banks of the past and present. We also are hesitant to ever agree with a Federal Reserve Chairman, but in this case, we find many points to agree on.
Bitcoin is beginning to naturally fit into every discussion on central banks and the international financial system. We touch on bitcoin throughout this episode.
Bitcoin Magazine is back in print!
Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door!
Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21
https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription
"The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox!
Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST
https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79
Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022
Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21
https://b.tc/conference/
In this special episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we are joined by Greg Foss and Aaron Segal, two notable individuals operating in the Bitcoin space. Viewing Bitcoin from a national and global perspective, this conversation focuses on the interplay between centralization and decentralization. Aaron’s latest essay on the topic breaks down the core facets of this hierarchical authority, and in this discussion he highlights the five axioms of centralization vs. decentralization. Expanding on how decentralization is a stabilizing force, and why centralization doesn’t always correlate with fascism or totalitarianism, Aaron shines a light on how Bitcoin can play a role in fluctuating economic environments. Touching on China’s economic shift and what the U.S. can learn from it, the conversation ramps up on Aaron’s fifth axiom: Bitcoin as a decentralizing force. Should we fight the federal reserve? Is the unpredictable nature of the Chinese government deterring passive investors? Join our panel-style discussion as we debate these economic changes and the future of decentralization.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner have a conversation about current Federal Reserve policy, headlines in the financial press, and rumors. Then we touch on PBoC and Evergrande problems in China. Lastly, the fun starts and we talk about the Infrastructure Bill and some hot takes about what to take away from it. It’s one of our longest episodes and a must listen for contrarian bitcoiner opinions.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner review Ansel’s latest article What Caused the Mid-Cycle Bitcoin Price Correction and then do a tour of recent central bank news from around the world. We also hit on the future of China, North America, and the 4th Turning.
The situation developing in China is highly concerning. First they ban mining, then they ban US IPOs, they have been cracking down on technology companies effectively nationalizing them, and the latest news is the crackdown on video games as “spiritual opium”. If you place this in the context of the recession, the aggressive dealing with Hong Kong and the Uyghurs, and deglobalization, it might be the beginning of the end for the CCP. It’s important to remember the speed with which the Soviet Union collapsed. One year academic experts were still claiming the Soviets were about to take over the world, the next they fall apart. The same could happen to the CCP.
We often fall into a geopolitical discussion, and this episode is no different in that regard. We wrap up the show by talking about what the future holds for the US, China, and the global economy.
Once again, a very entertaining show. You get a dose of central bank news in a broad global context, which today must include a heavy concern for bitcoin.
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we, your hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner, discuss my recent article How Bitcoin Will Impact El Salvador’s Geopolitics. You will hear a bullish, yet realistic, perspective on El Salvador, and learn how bitcoin can affect countries as they adopt it as a legal tender.
We begin the show by talking about why this topic is important. El Salvador is blazing a trail by adding bitcoin as a legal tender and there is a lot of build up for bitcoin to perform. People are excited that bitcoin will show the world all the benefits it can bring to nations ready to take the giant leap into the future.
The article is broken into several sections and we take our time stepping through each one. First is history and politics. El Salvador’s history is a multicultural one. It was the meeting place for Mayan, Aztec and other Central American cultures. The region was traditionally relatively decentralized into micro regions and never consolidated into a vibrant seat of power. In more modern times, its people have found difficulty consolidating legitimate power in a government, with civil wars and rampant violent gang divisions. The recent successes in this area by Nayib Bukele are promising, but do not provide evidence that their historical proclivities are gone forever.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we, your hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner catch listeners up on the global macroeconomic situation, discuss some financial current events, Fed taper, and of course dive into the current state of Bitcoin.
The first topic is a trip around the world starting in China. The CCP surprised the market recently with a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut. From Reuters, “Late on Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said it will cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, releasing around 1 trillion yuan ($154.19 billion) in long-term liquidity to underpin a post-COVID economic recovery that is starting to lose momentum.” This is being seen by many as a warning sign of a slowing Chinese recovery.
Next, we cover Germany’s slowdown in Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and factory orders. While the headline numbers look just okay, factory orders from outside the Euro area fell by 9.3% according to Germany’s Federal Statistics office destatis! Germany is a bellwether for the global economy and that print doesn’t sound like global recovery.
Last on our world tour, we discuss Japan’s Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) yields. Earlier in the year, Japanese yields were taking off signaling growth and health of the economy, but since February have done an about-face and are again approaching zero. So both important economies, Germany and Japan, are flashing red slowdown. Jeff Snider from Alhambra Partners had a great write up on both Germany and Japan.
The Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro has a podcast feed separate from Bitcoin Magazine. In your podcast app search for “Fed Watch Bitcoin and Macro”.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we, your hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner, had the privilege of sitting down with Aaron Segal of Bitcoin Magazine and Jeff Booth, author of “The Price Of Tomorrow,” to discuss some of the pitfalls of the current dominant narratives in bitcoin and sound money.
Segal is somewhat new to the bitcoin space but has already made a splash with two great essays for Bitcoin Magazine. The first is “Bitcoin Information Theory: B.I.T.,” and the second and the main subject of this podcast is called “Thinking Too Small And The Pitfalls Of The Inflation Narrative.” In both of these essays, Segal gives a fresh take on the bitcoin space from an insightful, new entrant perspective.
In this episode, we tried to flesh out the deflationist perspective, or at least why the inflationist perspective is not a given. Segal and Booth began by saying it is important to peel back the onion and not rest on surface-level monetary memes, like “money printer go brrr.” Segal does not want to get caught up on labels, instead concentrating on the underlying mechanisms of technological deflation meeting monetary inflation.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the separate Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro podcast feed. In your podcast app search for “Fed Watch Bitcoin and Macro”.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, we, your hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner, are back from a well deserved break. We start out the show by reminiscing about the Bitcoin 2021 conference from a couple of weeks ago. It was the first time we met in person. Perhaps next time, we will record a podcast together live from the conference.
We also talk about current price action for bitcoin and the incredible last couple of weeks for bitcoin that is not yet represented in price. Of course, El Salvador and Taproot are very bullish for bitcoin, but we also give a bullish spin to the crackdown on mining in China.
Our main topic for this episode is debriefing the reverse repo situation and the latest FOMC meeting. In the statement from last week by Chairman Powell, the Fed left their headline monetary policy stable. However, there were several changes, one minor and two major. The minor change was the dot plots. Each meeting of the Fed’s FOMC, members place dots on a chart where they expect the Fed Funds rate to be in the future. From that dot plot market participants form their expectations about future Federal Reserve policy and also draw conclusions about current market conditions.
The Fed is trapped. It will be fascinating to see what is next. Stay tuned to Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro and we will keep you up-to-date on all the developments.
Make sure to subscribe to the Fed Watch podcast feed wherever you listen to podcasts.
- iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
- Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
- Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
- FOMC statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
This podcast episode was recorded as a primer for Greg’s appearance at the B21 The Bitcoin Macro Landscape Panel. If you couldn’t make the conference, make sure to catch the Bitcoin 2021 YouTube live stream for day one and for day two.
In this podcast recorded on May 25th, Bitcoin Magazine’s Head of Research Dylan LeClair had a discussion with credit market expert Greg Foss to discuss the macro landscape surrounding bitcoin.
Greg holds over 30 years of experience in credit markets, and his breadth of knowledge was put on full display during the podcast as the two discussed leverage in the financial system, investment strategies and hedging optionality using a small long VOL allocation with a majority bitcoin position, and bitcoin as the ultimate solution to the fiat ponzi. The two also discussed the recent event of legendary macro investor Ray Dalio saying he would rather own Bitcoin than a bond, and what it means for the investment community.
This discussion is not one you want to miss. For more of Greg’s work, checkout his report tilted, Why Every Fixed Income Investor Needs To Consider Bitcoin As Portfolio Insurance, as well as tune in to his panel discussion with Preston Pysh, Jeff Booth Mark Yusko, and Trey Lockerbie on the Nakamoto Stage at 9:10am EST ( livestream link: here).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner welcome on to the show Parker Lewis, Head of Business Development at Unchained Capital. The main topic of this episode is supply chains, the importance of a pricing mechanism within supply chains, and of course, bitcoin’s superior ability to act as that pricing mechanism.
Parker tells the story of how central banks distort price signals, which is very important because price signals are the root of all economic activity. It is the breakdown in a valid pricing mechanism that forms a competitive environment in which a new money can emerge.
Next, we get into the important topic of how a new money incentivizes convergence away from the existing money toward a new money. We will have to have Parker back on soon because we didn’t have time to fully explore these ideas. New money is volatile and will initially not act as a good pricing mechanism. So if it is competing on that ground, it is not clear how the new money breaks into its role without a total collapse in the previous medium of exchange.
Also in this episode, Parker comments quite a bit on the incompetence of the Fed. He eloquently points out how central bankers are wrong every step of the way and how the market will route around the damage with bitcoin. I bring the thought experiment that, perhaps the Fed is always wrong because they have already been routed around and are not in control of anything. The only control they have is illusory and contained in mantras like, “don’t fight the Fed.” That idea didn’t get far with Parker but we had a nice conversation about it.
We end the episode with getting Parker’s thoughts on the bitcoin business climate. Fundamentals are extremely strong and we are all excited about coming price increases and growth in the bitcoin ecosystem. All that is well covered, so we wanted to ask Parker about any weaknesses he sees out there in bitcoin and where he thinks the bitcoin industry will improve the most in the coming 12-24 months. You’ll have to listen to get his insider’s take.
Make sure to subscribe to the Fed Watch podcast feed wherever you listen to podcasts.
- iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
- Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
- Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
- Unchained Capital: https://unchained-capital.com/
- Parker on twitter: https://twitter.com/parkeralewis
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner welcome back to the show Jeff Snider, Head of Global Research at Alhambra Partners. Jeff writes a great blog at Alhambra, is syndicated elsewhere, and creates a very thought provoking podcast with Emil Kalinowski called Making Sense: Eurodollar University.
Jeff is the foremost expert on the Eurodollar system, the large global financial system based around the off-shore dollar. The history and data he marshals to back his analysis of the monetary system is second to none. There is no other guest with his extensive and recallable knowledge of the Federal Reserve, so he is the perfect guest for Fed Watch.
That being said, in this episode we start off by getting an update on the world of high-powered monetary plumbing, specifically we want to know if we are in a reflationary cycle. Other pundits out there in macro will use terms like K-shaped or L-shaped recovery when speaking about a reflationary cycle. Some things look K-shaped, meaning certain populations have recovered while remaining very bad for others, namely the poorest among us. An L-shaped recovery means there has been no discernible bounce in the recovery at all. Jeff navigates through these distinctions and gives a great breakdown of the situation out there.
Next, we move right into a discussion on CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). These are new forms of digital currency provided by the central domestic regulator of each currency, the central bank. Jeff has been covering these developments more in his content recently. It is a large topic and here we only scratch the surface. One aspect I bring up specifically is the fact that the dollar has a vibrant private issuance of a stablecoin digital dollar, while other currencies cannot claim the same. It is those other central banks, particularly the ECB and the Euro, that are pursuing a CBDC the most aggressively. The market is providing roughly $100bn in “digital dollars”, no one seems to want digital euros badly enough to produce them privately. We get Jeff’s opinion on the fact that the central banks most scared about losing market share of their currency in the next 5-10 years to a private digital dollar, are those central banks pursuing CBDCs the most aggressively.
In the rest of our wide-ranging conversation we cover the interest rate fallacy, very important to understanding the monetary system as it is, and we try to dissect “asset price inflation”. It is currently the case that any increase in price will be called inflation by the inflationists while ignoring all the hidden wealth destruction and deflation. You really have to listen to this one. It is short but very dense.
The common theme to much of Jeff’s content emphasizes how little we know about the functioning of the dollar system, and claims of inflation versus deflation often gloss over the obvious reality that growth is nowhere to be found. We are trapped in a low-growth environment with pressures for further slow downs. Do not confuse high prices due to a shrinking economy with the inflationary effects of money printing.
Make sure to subscribe to the Fed Watch podcast feed wherever you listen to podcasts.
- iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
- Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
- Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
- Alhambra Partners: https://alhambrapartners.com
- Making Sense: Eurodollar University: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp8Xi-sPTL9VyZpHTPfLA-g
- Follow Jeff on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation. We dive deeply into the Petrodollar, its history, implications for the future, and lessons that we can apply to thinking about bitcoin’s growing role in the global financial system. Read Alex’s great Petrodollar post on Bitcoin Magazine, Uncovering the Hidden Costs of the Petrodollar.
The Petrodollar reentered the alternative financial discussion in 2003 with the invasion of Iraq. We were told the invasion was due to the presence of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and the funding of terrorism by Saddam Hussein. However, as it turned out, Saddam was also beginning to sell oil for Euros. That was a major break of international protocol, since the US-Saudi oil deal in 1974, where oil was to be priced in and sold for dollars.
This special US-Saudi relationship became known as the petrodollar and replaced the gold dollar ended a few years before in 1971 by President Nixon.
There is so much to unpack about this event and the era in which it happened. Alex walks us through some of the basics also found in his piece, and then we start to ask some more systemic questions. Instead of rehashing all the details, we focus on broad macroeconomic effects.
Of course, we cover the many negative impacts of the petrodollar system mainly through US military involvement to maintain the agreement, but people rarely stop to think about it from a monetary angle. A single currency is extremely efficient for global trade, it is also extremely beneficial to emerging markets to be able to borrow in US dollars which the international system can print.
Alex digs into some of those negatives and the hosts push back slightly, saying it wasn’t all negative. One question you won’t hear anywhere else is when Ansel asks about the very real threat at the time, in 1974, of the Soviets signing a similar deal with Saudi instead of the Americans. Saudi did not like the US at all, a deal with the Soviets was more obvious. All the evils of the petrodollar would have been magnified if the communists, who killed millions of their own people, would have been able to set up a “petro-ruble”. You have to listen to hear Alex Gladstein’s response to that one.
Make sure to subscribe to the Fed Watch podcast feed wherever you listen to podcasts.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Human Rights Foundation https://hrf.org
Uncovering the Hidden Costs of the Petrodollar https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/the-hidden-costs-of-the-petrodollar
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch” podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Dylan Leclair from Bitcoin Magazine. Dylan is the writer of, “The Conclusion of the Long-Term Debt Cycle and the Rise of Bitcoin,” an article on Bitcoin Magazine using Ray Dalio’s long-term debt cycle to look at the current system and how bitcoin fits in. Dylan is a great example of the growing Bitcoin Magazine community; spreading valuable content to beginners, who in turn become the valuable content producers.
After some introductions, Dylan begins by walking through short-term versus long-term debt cycles. Most people will be familiar with the idea of business cycles. These are periods of seven to ten years, where the economy expands and contracts, recovery and recession. Those are the short-term cycles. We all live through several of them in our lifetimes.
However, the long-term debt cycles can be anywhere between 75 to 100 years in length. These cycles are due to each individual short-term cycle not completely clearing the bad debts and misallocations of capital out of the system. Every 75 to 100 years a larger bust finally resets the economy more deeply. It happens so infrequently, no one personally remembers the last cycle, so no one other than economic historians are around to warn everyone.
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, hosts Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner listen and react to several clips from the Jerome Powell 60 Minutes interview. All audio is used under Fair Use and we add our commentary to it. You can get the full interview here and the Youtube playlist of clips here.
Jay Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, appeared on 60 Minutes this week. The interview seemed to be a public relations attempt by the Fed. It fell one year after the Corona Crash of 2020.
Ansel and Christian take three clips and break them down in unapologetic fashion. The first clip is amazing because Powell says they see the same persistent issues today which were present back during the Great Financial Crisis, and if they keep coming up they might as well fix them. This comment got our blood boiling. It was not as if they did not try their best to fix it back after the GFC. What makes them think they’ll be able to fix it this time?
Articles mentioned in the episode China Digital Yuan Will Co-Exist With Alipay, WeChat, PBOC Says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-25/china-digital-yuan-will-co-exist-with-alipay-wechat-pboc-says
China Asks Banks to Curtail Credit for Rest of Year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/china-is-said-to-ask-banks-to-curtail-credit-for-rest-of-year
ECB tries to dispel myths about CBDC https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/37744/ecb-bids-to-bust-cbdc-myths
Lagarde Says Market Can Test ECB Resolve as Much as It Wants https://archive.ph/SyLZK
Treasury General Account balance https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTREGEN
Summary In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner reminisce about the year on the podcast so far and cover recent developments from the major central banks of the world.
There have been so many great guests on Fed Watch this year so far that span a unique swath of bitcoin and macro. If you haven’t listened to these past episodes, subscribe and check out the back catalog. This year’s list of guests includes Max Kaiser, Nik Bhatia, Michael Lebowitz, Elliot Johnson, Mark Moss, Greg Foss, and Daniel Prince.
Fed Watch has established itself as the bitcoin podcast which goes past the surface arguments about the monetary system, uncovering uncomfortable topics and diving deeply into how bitcoin will reshape that system. The main part of this episode is summarizing central bank related news for the last month, particularly the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Federal Reserve.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Once Bitten Podcast w/ Daniel Prince https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/once-bitten/id1497540130
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner sit down with Daniel Prince, host of the Once Bitten podcast. Daniel offers a perspective from his unique experience, starting from a successful career in global Forex and trading, to traveling the world for years with four kids, and now host of a bitcoin maximalist podcast interviewing many great bitcoiners.
This episode discusses a wide range of macroeconomic topics at a high level using bitcoin as the central force. Daniel represents the demographic of people entering bitcoin, professionals with experience with money markets and a concern about the current system and its effects.
Fifteen years in Singapore enabled Daniel to meet influential macro experts and be exposed to a sound money culture, being that gold is more respected in the Far East. He relates his experience getting red-pilled about fiat money, fiat education, and fiat food. It seems that fiat delusions are infecting all aspects of society and culture. The conversation takes a dark turn when discussing what a collapse of the fiat Ponzi looks like when the topic of depopulation comes up, but we quickly turn this back to the positive by discussing how bitcoin will help the world.
Mr. Prince brings up Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the latter half of the episode and that brings us back to Fed Watch’s bread and butter. We all agreed that CBDCs are a central bank attack on banks, and in that event, banks will win. They have the opportunity to wield the new weapon of bitcoin against the central banks. This is a much different way to answer the Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) spread by nocoiners about bitcoin being attacked by governments.
Fed Watch has established itself as the bitcoin podcast which goes past the surface arguments about the monetary system, uncovering uncomfortable topics and diving deeply into how bitcoin will reshape that system. It brings on exciting guests from all corners of macro to discuss the most important topic in finance today.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor b.tc/conference and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Greg Foss Bitcoin Valuation Thesis as Portfolio Insurance https://rockstarinnercircle.com/foss/
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-foss-a553ab32/
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Greg Foss, who “has a 30-year history in banks, bonds and the credit markets as a whole. His insights around Bitcoin and the state of the banking industry and the global economy are amazing.” The second Canadian in 3 episodes, Fed Watch is bringing great North American bitcoiners with unique perspectives on to discuss all aspects of how bitcoin is meeting the challenges of entering the central bank dominated financial world.
In this conversation, we first learn a little bit about Greg’s background in banking. He began his career in 1988 working for the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) where he quickly realized it was insolvent due to their exposure to the Latin American Financial Crisis. He went on to work for and found many influential financial firms in Canada over the next 30 years, until he found bitcoin in 2016.
The reason Fed Watch wanted to speak with Greg Foss is his interesting valuation thesis for bitcoin which you can find on his website linked above. It centers around bitcoin as portfolio insurance for fixed income investors. In this episode, the listener will get a master class on Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads and pricing.
Today, the CDS market is the way the financial industry prices risk in the credit market in the attempt to make homogeneous investable products for fixed income investors. The problem is when financial conditions change, which they very often do, these prices move, forcing investors to react and kicking off a downward spiral in prices. It is a very unstable framework. Foss highlights that bitcoin is a perfect fit in this market to reduce risk and act as a hedge during the inevitable periods of market instability.
Another aspect Greg concentrates on is the unworkable mathematics of global debt. He uses an example that the global economy, which has stayed under 5% per year since 1976, must get to levels approaching growth of 12% simply to service the current debt. In this world, there will be defaults, the system will have to readjust, and that readjustment will be painful.
In the second half of this episode, we touch on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), the global nature of the credit markets and what the central banks are doing to fight this deflationary environment before moving onto Greg’s current business venture. Validus Power Corp is involved with converting stranded energy from oil field flares into usable energy to mine bitcoin. This is a booming business all over North America. Naturally, the conversation turned to a North American Renaissance powered by on-shoring industrial base, global capital, and the booming energy sector.
Fed Watch has established itself as the bitcoin podcast which goes past the surface arguments about the monetary system, diving deeply into how bitcoin will reshape that system. We bring on exciting guests from all corners of macro to discuss the most important topic in finance today.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Mark Moss who is a serial entrepreneur with a specialty in real estate and investing. We picked his brain about bitcoin as an asset class, monetary and fiscal policy in the US, and what the future 12-24 months has in store.
Mark Moss says he sees high inflation and a systemic breakdown coming soon due to several factors. Ansel and Christian press him for more clarity. Is there a tipping point we will unmistakably notice in the future? What if velocity never picks up and inflation in most of the economy is muted for an extended period?
Ansel, Christian and Mark spend the next 15 minutes going back and forth, trying to get to a more concrete view of just how the next 12-24 months will proceed.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Elliot Johnson of Evolve ETFs. Elliot and Evolve launched a bitcoin ETF in Canada in February and we discuss all about that experience. Evolve has many ETF products centered around disruptive technologies. Elliot has a lot of experience launching products like these and working with regulators on financial products, so we took the opportunity to dive deeply into the area of his expertise and get his view on bitcoin and the macroeconomic climate in general. As you can tell, it ended up being a pretty broad conversation.
It is nice to interview industry professionals who are, perhaps we can say, tangential to bitcoin. While Evolve is not technically a bitcoin only company, they have several ETF products in the space. Elliot related how their bitcoin ETF was the first product they tried to launch back in 2017, but the regulators weren’t ready for it back then. They kept trying and now have become one of the three bitcoin ETFs that were launched in Canada in the last month.
Elliot says, though the process took several years, Canada is emerging as a forward thinking financial jurisdiction. They are very comfortable with disruptive new products, and he hopes to maintain the good working relationship with the Ontario Securities Commision in the future.
Next we bring it back to the US and dive deeply into his view on Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and their current discount. He chalks it up to the opening up of competition in the space. This is a convincing argument, because the month prior to Canada’s three major bitcoin ETFs launching, the premium on GBTC was 40%. Today, it sits at -10%. Elliot also, obviously, leans toward the ETF structure as being superior to the Trust based structure of GBTC. Open-ended ETFs will remain closer to Net Asset Value (NAV) of the underlying than a close-ended Trust can.
We get into Elliot’s macro vision of what’s going on right now and where bitcoin fits. He is quite keen on bitcoin as digital gold, fulfilling a large need for an alternate storage asset. When asked about where he sees the industry going in the next 5 to 1- years Elliot focuses on the growing respect of the asset class. He also made an interesting point, that in his daily interactions with interested investors of this bitcoin ETF, they tend to be those who do not own bitcoin in any other capacity already. It is not current holders looking to diversify, but it is all new investor demand.
Lastly, we ask for his advice to new investors and his opinion on a healthy bitcoin allocation in a portfolio. Of course, he was very professional and suggested talking to your financial advisor, and he ended on the need for continued work on education in the space.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Links Evolve ETFs https://evolveetfs.com/
Written by Ansel Lindner
Economist, author and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner speak with Michael Lebowitz, a Portfolio Manager for RIA Advisors. This is a change of pace for Fed Watch, reaching out to forward thinking financial advisors, to ask for their industry insight on the Federal Reserve, monetary matters, and bitcoin. Michael has made several appearances on Real Vision and numerous other macro podcasts, and notably appears weekly on RIA’s Youtube channel with business partner Lance Roberts. The latter is where Ansel discovered Michael’s content, and was impressed with the level of insight on monetary questions.
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner give an update on bitcoin’s price action over the last two weeks, speak about the Tether’s settlement with the NYAG, provide expert commentary on Chairman Powell’s testimony, and dive deeply into how bitcoin fits into the macro landscape.
Bitcoin’s price action has been quite volatile, but bitcoiners are used to that. After breaking out of January’s consolidation it rose 50% to threaten the round $60,000 level before pulling back and consolidating. There is some apprehension about this pull back, because many people were ready for price to go up and never come down again. Of course, there will be periods of gains followed by times of consolidation. Nothing to get concerned with at this point.
Tether also had some very bullish news this week on Tuesday morning when it was announced that they settled with the NY Attorney General to pay an $18 million fine. But what exactly they are paying the fine for must be implied. Despite claims by the NYAG of wrongdoing, no convincing evidence was produced to justify pursuing the case further. This new appears to be quite bullish for the bitcoin industry as Tether provides a significant portion of liquidity on the fiat side of trades.
Next the co-hosts breakdown some of Chairman Powell’s testimony given to the Senate on Tuesday. At the time of recording, the proceedings were just ending and the tweets about Powell’s bitcoin and “digital dollar” comments were already starting to fly. Ultimately, there was nothing new on this front from the Fed’s chief, he reiterated previous comments using very similar rhetoric, with the sole exception of adding that a digital dollar was a “high priority.”
The basic position of the Fed on a digital dollar remains cautious. They are working with partners like the University of Texas and MIT on research initiatives but they take their role as provider of the reserve currency very seriously. They will not move quickly on a digital dollar. As comparison, the ECB is on the forefront of this movement for different reasons, but even they are admittedly still 4 years away. If there is to be a digital dollar, separate from the market provided digital dollars already very successful like Tether, it will be at least 5-8 years away.
Powell also spoke on inflation. Much information can be gathered by a careful listening to his word choices. He says we may see prices picking up as the economy reopens. But that is not a strong statement, it is one made from a academic framework, not real world data. He also says the Fed has the tools to keep inflation under control. But no mention of tools to keep deflation under control, which is the primary atmosphere we are dealing with at this time. Lastly, in regards to recent rises in longer term Treasury rates Powell said rates are moving up because of expectations of economic recovery. This is a subtle but important point that Ansel emphasizes, Powell is not saying rates are moving up because of actual recovery, only the expectation of recovery. And what happens when those expectations turn negative?
This wide ranging podcast episode ends with a foray into how bitcoin fits into the world of macroeconomics and even geopolitics going forward. We are aware that bitcoin is making an entrance onto the broad international monetary scene, but what will that look like later this year and going forward? Where does bitcoin fit? You’ll have to listen to find out what Ansel and Christian say, it might surprise you.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Ansel Lindner
Economist, author, and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at the Bitcoin & Markets podcast (bitcoinandmarkets.com), the BitcoinDictionary.cc, and new macro blog Bitcoin & Markets Research (BTCM.co).
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner give an update on central bank news in relation to bitcoin. This is the only podcast that tackles this intersection of macro and bitcoin, from a realistic and skeptical point of view. The cracks in the legacy financial system are fairly evident at this point, but it is not going to be a quick and easy transition to what is next. Bitcoin’s niche is growing and muscling into the territory of the legacy system. But it will happen in phases, without a centralized plan. This podcast examines that point friction.
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s Fed Watch podcast, Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner interview Nik Bhatia, author of Layered Money - From Gold and Dollars to Bitcoin and Central Bank Digital Currencies. Nik has a diverse background from a US Treasuries trading desk of a large institutional asset manager to being an Adjunct Professor teaching finance and economics at the University of Southern California.
The interview starts off with some high level background of Nik, specifically how his experience enabled him to understand Bitcoin early on. In these first few minutes we get a glimpse at just how wide ranging this conversation will be.
In Layered Money, Nik describes the history of money from the year 1250 to the present day as a series of developments adding complexity to the monetary system. We ask him if he views money as an evolutionary process and to step us through that idea. We drill down on this topic, which is of course central to this thesis on money, that money is defined as a whole of all the layers, and how they work together. Layers can be reused in a new money, but the current US dollar based financial system would not be the same if the layers were different.
The part of the interview that will probably be most familiar to Fed Watch listeners is the part on the Eurodollar system and how that interfaces with the domestic US dollar system. Layered Money gives a new framework by which to view this complicated relationship. It is not straightforward and we dig into the inflation versus deflation debate from Nik’s perspective.
Last, but definitely not least, we discuss Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC). Nik has a nuanced understanding of this emerging technology and its ramifications on the Layered Money framework. It is interesting that one of the questions we address is simply, “Do the central bankers know that CBDCs are threatening to remake the entire system?”
Overall, another great episode for your listening pleasure. Nik Bhatia is very knowledgeable about all the topics we commonly talk about on Fed Watch. This is one you don’t want to miss!
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch,” Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner discuss the recent events around WallStreetBets (WSB) and Gamestop from a macro perspective. We spend some time setting up the history and what transpired, before diving into the meanings and implications of what happened. We try to answer the questions, “what is the goal of WSB, and were they successful?”
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fed-watch-bitcoin-and-macro/id1543640492
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Bitcoin Magazine: https://bitcoinmagazine.com
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. It will be separate from Bitcoin Magazine. Exclusively on the new feed, starting on the next interview with the great Max Kaiser. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
Fed Watch is back with an interview of the great Max Kaiser. This one starts off getting to know Max’s background prior to bitcoin. In true Max Kaiser form, that leads to the very big picture cosmic placing of bitcoin into human evolution and civilization defining technology. That is where we like to end our episodes, but Max beat us to the punch.
We spend the rest of the show trying to drill down from that very broad civilizational brush, down to specific macro topics. Max can cover a lot of ground in a 2-3 minute response to a question, things we touch on along the way are the metaphysical revolution of bitcoin, inflation versus deflation, Max’s 3 D’s (deglobalization, dedollarization, and depopulation), China, China versus the US, and of course, more about how bitcoin fits into the future.
This is a very thought provoking episode. It will give you food for thought even to the most hardcore bitcoin experts out there. And beginners will be left with the impression that bitcoin is more than a simple piece of software, it is human changing technology.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Do not forget to subscribe to the new Fed Watch: Bitcoin and Macro new feed. It will be separate from Bitcoin Magazine. Exclusively on the new feed, starting on the next interview with the great Max Kaiser. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch,” Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner discuss the broad macroeconomic atmosphere in which bitcoin finds itself.
We touch on bitcoin mining, price, the dollar, commodities, and the economy in general. In our bitcoin mining commentary, we focus on the behavior of hash rate over the last few months and the unique market for mining rigs. This is an important aspect of the bitcoin market that largely not understood even by hardcore bitcoiners.
Next, we have a fascinating discussion about social media, community building, and gaming. The Bitcoin & Markets podcast community has built a valuable community on discord and have slowly moved away from Twitter. Smaller communities where you can build relationships instead of followings may be the future trend.
We wrap up the episode talking about macro trends and bitcoin price. That, and so much more is on this episode. Don’t miss it. This was another great episode to keep you current on central bank issues. Full show notes available: (link back to bitcoin magazine).
Do not forget to subscribe to Fed Watch’s new RSS feed, so you don’t miss any of our great guest insights in the future. Thanks for listening.
Make sure to visit our Sponsor stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Find “Fed Watch”’s new RSS feed: Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine’s “Fed Watch,” Christian Keroles and Ansel Lindner look back at the events of the last few weeks and put them into a macro perspective. They also give us an optimistic vision of the next year that only the Bitcoin Space can offer.
Topics covered
- Censorship and Bitcoin Twitter
- Macro cycles like the 4th Turning
- Assets like gold, the dollar, and commodities
- Bitcoin price
- 2021 predictions
We are in dark times, but it is darkest before dawn. Bitcoin is a steady guiding light in this troubled time, and though things might get slightly worse from a political perspective over the next year, history and bitcoin show us the future is still very bright.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsors LVL.co & stacks2.com and find our new RSS feed!
Find Fed Watch’s new RSS feed. Search for “Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro” on your podcast app.
In this episode, Christian and Ansel discuss the monetary policy of the three major central banks, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan. They step through the crisis, from the central banks’ position upon entering 2020, through the panic months of March and April, to how they all ended the year in a holding pattern.
The Fed gets blamed for unleashing a flood of liquidity and money printing on the world, but in fact, they were probably the most reserved out of the major central banks. If anyone should suffer inflation of their currency it is the Bank of Japan. Their central bank balance sheet alone is now 126% of their countries GDP, and the ECB’s balance sheet is over 55% of the Eurozone GDP. The Fed looks the tamest of the three in this respect, coming in at only 34%. If QE is money printing, we should expect inflation in these smaller currencies first, but what do we see? They are stuck in deflation and heading for another crash.
Lastly, Christian and Ansel sum up what they think about this year in regards to central banks and bitcoin.
Thanks for listening. Make sure to visit our Sponsor LVL.co and find out new RSS feed!
Links
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/reviewing-2020s-central-bank-policies
Full episode article link : https://bitcoinmagazine.com/something here
In this episode, Christian and Ansel give updates on the Federal Reserve, ECB, and PBOC. Europe is the most exciting because last week they updated their policy, admitting they are fighting deflation, economic contraction, and a strong euro, despite the 1.85 trillion euro stimulus this year alone. It seems the more they do, the worse their situation gets.
The Fed meets Wednesday, December 16th, for their final meeting of the year, in which they are expected to keep everything the same. Next, we cover the PBOC’s recent troubles with defaults throughout their economy, and the increasing amount of stimulus they are providing.
Lastly, what would a bitcoin podcast be without a discussion about MicroStrategy and MassMutual. Bitcoiners have been expecting this type of adoption for years, so it is exciting but expected.
Links
Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2020 : https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-to-watch-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11607979577
ECB expands and extends its bond buying as coronavirus resurgence weighs on the recovery : https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/10/ecb-expands-bond-buying-as-coronavirus-resurgence-weighs.html
The ECB's Policy Dilemma: More QE Will Strengthen The Euro : https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394050-ecbs-policy-dilemma-qe-will-strengthen-euro
China has no plan to replace USD with digital yuan, former PBoC head says : https://cointelegraph.com/news/china-has-no-plan-to-replace-usd-with-digital-yuan-former-pboc-head-says
Nov 27 - China’s central bank could intervene after ‘glaring’ state-firm bond defaults, analyst says : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/27/chinas-central-bank-could-intervene-as-state-firm-bond-defaults-rise-analyst.html
Dec 14 - China’s central bank injects 950 billion yuan of medium-term loans, leaves rate unchanged : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/15/chinas-central-bank-injects-950-billion-yuan-of-medium-term-loans.html
In this episode of Fed Watch, Christian and Ansel get into specifics on the plans of the ECB in regard to their digital euro. We are told in the media that central banks are very much going to be releasing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and it will have damaging effects. However, on this podcast we get our information directly from the source. First, we must answer is a digital euro likely and why, which is what we do in this episode. In later episodes we will cover the side-effects of CBDCs if there are any.
On November 30, 2020, the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde released a blog post detailing the ECB’s current thoughts on money and how a digital euro, or CBDC, fits into their plans. I talked about this on my recent episode of Bitcoin & Markets, and Christian wanted to explore the idea of the worries of the ECB specifically, because their thinking seems to be heavily worried about monetary sovereignty.
That term, “monetary sovereignty” came up several times is Lagarde’s blog post in context to why they feel pursuing a CBDC is necessary. This contrasts Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments which focus on patience and conservatism instead of worries about monetary sovereignty. Why is this?
Most likely this is because their already are digital stablecoins, similar to how a digital euro would function, in the market. There is a big problem in the free market offerings of these stablecoins, from the ECB vantage point; they are 99% US dollar based. If the ECB were not to act, the market might completely bypass use of the euro in favor of a digital dollar. That is a scary possibility for the ECB, so they must provide that option for the market, and maybe even require its use in some cases to maintain the euro’s global position.
This episode also discusses the recent MicroStrategy “bonds for bitcoin” proposal. Listen to find out if this is the first signs of the long awaited “speculative attack” on fiat by bitcoin, and what to watch out for as this move receives the keen attention of regulators.
We also discuss jurisdictional arbitrage at length. How does bitcoin enable jurisdictional arbitrage even within the regions, like between US States or European countries? Of course, as good bitcoiners, this leads us to a cosmic back and forth about citadel locations, and the best place to live in the future from a freedom and economic standpoint.
Fantastic episode, heavy on central bank commentary. Do not forget to subscribe to Fed Watch’s new RSS feed, so you don’t miss any of our great guest insights in the future.
Ansel Lindner
Economist, author, investor, and bitcoin specialist. Find more from Ansel at BitcoinDictionary.cc, BitcoinAndMarkets.com, and BTCM.co.
In this off the cuff episode of Fed Watch, Christian and I dive more deeply into the technology driven deflation debate we started last week with our guest Jeff Booth. We bring up the chicken or the egg conversation that did not get answered fully last time; is the deflation from technology first or is the inflationary environment first? In other words, which force is primary? We discuss that topic again, and also touch on the problem that not all technology is equally inflationary.
Modern finance preceded the industrial revolution and it is widely accepted that technological advance and economic stimulus are directly correlated. Ansel attempts to make the claim that it is the culture and capital structure that results from debt-based fiat money that incentivizes massive technological advancement.
Without debt-based fiat money the deflationary pressure from innovation will return to the natural and gradual speed we saw throughout the days of the classic gold standard. Don’t forget to subscribe to Fed Watch so you don’t miss any of our great guest insights in the future.
In this episode of Fed Watch, Christian and I are joined by Jeff Booth. It results in a show that is unlike any other interview with Jeff you may have seen. Most listeners are familiar with his book, so we spend most of our time discussing what a timeline of events looks like from Jeff’s perspective, and then some possible limitations to the technology driven deflation theory. In usual Fed Watch style, we end with trying to understand how bitcoin affects these arguments and what bitcoin means for the world.
Don’t forget to subscribe to Fed Watch so you don’t miss any of our great guest insights in the future.
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
Description
This episode of Fed Watch is a cosmic ride though the broad topics of money, central banks, and bitcoin. Christian and Ansel start by extending the analogy of a financial hurricane, which Ansel spoke about in another recent podcast. Many people point to certain asset price rises as a sign of inflation, however, Ansel argues that it is a natural evolution of prices due to the malfunctioning financial system. This malfunctioning financial system acts similarly to a physical natural disaster by distorting supply and demand for goods. During a decade-long financial hurricane, changes occur not only to asset allocations of investors but the system itself can evolve. It affects the pipes and infrastructure of the financial system, favoring relatively “safer” global assets like US Treasuries and US stocks. The economic behavior, products, and relationships that form during a financial hurricane will favor hedging against deflation rather than risk taking or behavior aimed at expansion.
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
Bitcoin has an unyielding apolitical nature, which oddly enough, makes it a political statement in today’s rampantly politicized world. In this episode of Fed Watch, Christian and Ansel discuss the recent US election and what it means for bitcoin. Their discussion is wide-ranging from election irregularities, to the rebound in mining hash power, to bitcoin price predictions for the near term.
Topics:
Politics in the US was front page news
Speculate Biden and the Fed
The Dollar and the Yuan price action during the election.
Bitcoin is global.
Bitcoin price at 15260
Difficulty -16% adjustment followed by a +5 Adjustment
Fed Watch Podcast Discussions on Base Money and Bitcoin
Our discussion on this episode of Fed Watch centers around “what is base money” and Matthew’s thoughts on some of the edge cases in the definition. We also attack the inflation/deflation debate from a whole different angle, a data driven angle thanks to Matthew’s research and knowledge on the subject. We don’t ask simple questions and expand the topic past the common hyperinflationary troupes of the end of the dollar.
The listener will hear discussion on dollar liquidity, the history and current status of gold and silver, foreign reserves of the dollar, and, of course, where Bitcoin’s current status relative to other base money types. Matthew also shares some great charts which can be seen on the video version of Fed Watch on YouTube. https://youtu.be/l1ei12lWSeQ
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
Matthew Mežinskis on Twitter @crypto_voices and cryptovoices.com
In this episode, CK and I try to describe the scene, including a video message from Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, Washington, DC, on October 15th, titled A New Bretton Woods Moment and this IMF panel with Chairman Powell.
Topics:
- Brettonwoods 2.0
- Effect of Libra on the CBDC conversation?
- USA not moving quickly on CBDC
- what is a CBDC
- Feds view of CBDCs
- Bitcoin Momentum globally
Useful Links:
IMF “Bretton Woods moment video
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/10/15/sp101520-a-new-bretton-woods-moment
IMF panel with Powell
https://youtu.be/mVmKN4DSu3g
Please rate and share the podcast
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
This week, CK and Ansel recap prior guests, discuss recent Federal Reserve quiet, the ECB digital Euro study and trademarking of the term, and dive in deeply into the Bitmex, Bitcoin, and Tether. One of the big topics is the way in which Tether and now Bitmex are fighting the most powerful regulator in the world, the US government, and they seem to be at least winning right now.
Links: Fed CBDC research https://cointelegraph.com/news/federal-reserve-bank-reveals-details-of-digital-dollar-research
ECB Digital Euro paper https://cointelegraph.com/news/ecb-to-consider-further-digital-euro-study-in-2021
Trademark of “Digital Euro” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-01/ecb-applies-for-digital-euro-trademark-amid-feasibility-study
Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine
Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Christian: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc/
One of the great macro pundits of the last few years, Lyn Alden joins us, for one of the most important episodes of Fedwatch. Lyn has a fantastic grasp of history and macro economics. In this interview, we wanted to focus on placing our current time into a historical context comparing it to previous cycles which we can learn from. We also continue our search for a definition of money today, and agreement on a definition of money, inflation, and deflation.
Find Lyn:
https://www.lynalden.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact Rebel Capitalist Pro: https://www.georgegammon.com/rebel-capitalist-pro/ Elliot Wave Trader: https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/news/ Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg Christian: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc/
This week on Bitcoin Magazine's Fed Watch, Ck and Ansel sit down with a Bitcoin OG and listener of the show, Kenny Rowe to answer his basic questions about the Fed and Macro. Kenny is currently at Urbit and has been working on Bitcoin and Crypto projects for many years now. Kenny and Urbit are pioneers in the sovereign server movement.
Find Kenny at: https://twitter.com/kennyrowe
Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine
Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
CK: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc
Steven’s Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRIQM-CUkxVazVPv980YZsw
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven
In this interview, we are joined by macro commentator Steven Van Metre. He has become well-known for his clear articulation of a contrarian macro take which focuses around the coming recession, bonds, and the dollar.
Timestamps:
4:06 - 4:24 Talking about Bonds and their role in the global economy.
8:42 - 11:21 Steven explains what this mean for the dollar
16:09 - 17:39 How QE works
22:17 - 24:00 Stocks V Bonds
24:32 - 26:14 Where do you see the next 5-10 years?
29:55 - 31:04 Will Bitcoin do well in a down turn?
Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine
Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Christian: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc
In this interview, we are joined by bitcoin legend Stacy Herbert. We talk about her background in Hollywood and how she and Max found bitcoin. It is a wide ranging conversation about GIABO “Global Insurrection Against Banker Occupation” and the long term very accurate narrative that she and Max have crafted over the last 10 years. She is a memer and storyteller and that really comes through in this interview.
Max Keiser Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/MaxKeiserTV
Orange Pill podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1263314 S
Stacy on Twitter: https://twitter.com/stacyherbert
Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine
Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Christian: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc/
This is Fed Watch, the Bitcoin Magazine podcast and show focused on bringing together the worlds of Macro Finance and Bitcoin. This week on Fed Watch hosts CK and Ansel Discuss Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve Meeting. The hosts also discuss deflation in Europe and the ECB's inability to create inflation. We close the show out with Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Fundamentals.
Powell’s Speech PDF transcript: https://www.bis.org/review/r200827d.pdf
Hypothesis highlights: https://hyp.is/go?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bis.org%2Freview%2Fr200827d.pdf&group=__world__
The speech meant to announce their new consensus statement and framework of how they interpret their mandate from Congress. It was the culmination of a 2 year internal audit and research. The speech is organized into parts, (a) Evolution of Fed tools/framework from inflation fighter to deflation fighter, (b) the four key economic developments motivated our review, (c) discussion of unemployment side of the mandate, and (d) discussion of the inflation side of their mandate.
ECB link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-inflation/europes-inflation-plunge-to-raise-red-flags-at-ecb-idUSKBN25S4GD
Find us: Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
CK: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc/
Today, we have the privilege to sit down with Head of Global Research at Alhambra Investments Jeff Snider. We run through the basics of the eurodollar system, why people get it wrong when talking about the Fed, and where we are going from here. Of course, we finish up getting Jeff to talk about bitcoin, and what he says might surprise you! Alhambra Investments: https://alhambrapartners.com/commentaryanalysis/ Alhambra Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp8Xi-sPTL9VyZpHTPfLA-g Making Sense, Eurodollar University iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669 Before the interview, we have some time to talk about several other topics about the Fed and global money issues: Federal Reserve’s Cunha on the State (and Timeframe) of Digital Dollars https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2020/federal-reserves-cunha-state-and-timeframe-digital-dollars/ IMF tweet on “Cryptocurrencies” https://twitter.com/IMFNews/status/1297640002604527621?s=20 Kristy-Leigh Minehan on a rumored big player coming to Bitcoin ASICs https://twitter.com/OhGodAGirl/status/1295942087582482432?s=20 Find us:
Bitcoin Magazine: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine
Bitcoin Magazine YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtOV5M-T3GcsJAq8QKaf0lg
Christian: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
Ansel: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner Bitcoin Dictionary: http://bitcoindictionary.cc/
This week CK and Ansel cover what’s new in the world of the Fed as well as riff on Bitcoin’s recent price action.
Topics:
FedNow payment network announcement
Covering recent speech from Brainard of the Fed
Bitcoin Metrics and price action.
Useful Links:
FedNow: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20200806a.htm
Brainard speech: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20200813a.htm
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Bio CEO & Chief Strategist, Quill Intelligence https://quillintelligence.com/ The author of FED UP: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America Worked at the Fed, advisor to Dallas President Richard W. Fisher during the GFC
Other topics covered this week: FOMC statement from last week https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200729a.htm FOMC holds policies steady.
Places all blame on the virus. The virus has its own dual mandate here 1) distract from systemic weakness and failures 2) help manipulate sentiment, hopefully sentiment will recover as virus pressures abate ECB and Bundesbank view Germany’s Constitutional Court’s demands met http://archive.vn/S6vAN Euro spike discussed in context of a longer recession
This week, @ck_SNARKs and @AnselLindner have our first guest on to FED Watch, @edstromandrew. Andy is the head of institutional at Swan Bitcoin and he comes on to the show to debate Ansel on if we will experience Inflation or Deflation moving forwards. Ansel is arguing that deflation is in our future while Andy makes the case for inflation.
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[Guest] Andy Edstrom @edstromandrew
This week, @ck_SNARKs and @AnselLindner take a deep dive into the Feds balance sheet, discuss the latest out of Europe and hash out what could happen in the short term for Bitcoin. Topics:
Review the FEDs Balance Sheet
Read Lorie Logan FED speech
EU passes Recovery Fund
Hash out Future Bitcoin scenarios
Useful Links:
Balance sheet YTD: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Fed Currency swaps 1 yr: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT
Lorie Logan FED speech July 15th: https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2020/log200715
EU Recovery Fund: https://www.dw.com/en/unmasking-the-eus-massive-pandemic-recovery-fund-the-fine-print/a-54255523
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
This week, @ck_SNARKs and @AnselLindner take a deep dive on Japan and China, talk recent Altcoin pumps, and discuss mining fundamentals. Topics:
- Digital Yen CBDC (https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/could-digital-yen-deflate-japans-deflation/)
- PBoC history
- Lack of volatility in Bitcoin
- Hashrate at all time highs
- Will Altcoins eventually die?
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
This week ck and Ansel sit down for a big update on recent news from the FED, all things macro, and tie in where Bitcoin fits into all of it. Topics:
- Economists are asking for UBI type recurring payments
- NY Fed Says If Markets Continue Improving, "Fed's Purchases May Stop Entirely"
- “Soaring saving rates
- Stocks and Gold keep going higher together
- Bitcoin Updates
Useful Links:
Savings rates explode across the globe: http://archive.vn/casaJ
Fed could slow down activity: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/head-ny-feds-trading-floor-says-if-markets-continue-improving-feds-purchases-may-stop
Letter from economists asking for UBI: https://www.economicsecurityproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/emp_economists_letter.pdf
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
This week we cover the escalation in FED buying activity, fake Chinese gold, sovereign companies, flat Bitcoin and more!
Useful links:
- The Fed announced straight Corporate Debt purchases 06/29
-
- https://twitter.com/NewYorkFed/status/1277658597195907073?s=20
- https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-primary-corporate-credit-facility-now-operational
- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/the-fed-is-buying-some-of-the-biggest-companies-bonds-raising-questions-over-why.html
- Counterfeit gold
-
- https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/83-tons-fake-gold-bars-gold-market-rocked-massive-china-counterfeiting-scandal
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
This week, ck and Ansel watched Fed Chair Powell present the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress and break down the highlights. We digested 5+ hours of content and distilled it into a 25 minute show. Enjoy.
Segments Links to the entire testimony:
- Day one: https://youtu.be/7xAMAJ5ieKo
- Day two: https://youtu.be/6P0Z-CyX4Rk
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[SPONSORS]
Bisq: Bisq is an open-source, peer-to-peer application that allows you to buy and sell Bitcoin in exchange for national currencies. No registration required.
This week, ck and Ansel sit down to discuss the history of the Fed backing up the market and ensuring that is does not fall AKA the “Fed Put”.
Topics:
- What is the Fed put?
- Define a put option
- Updates on Europe
- Corona Virus cases increasing
- Crisis in Lebanon
- Huge Bitcoin 14% difficulty increase
- Bitcoin Options Volume growing
Links:
CME Volume increasing: https://www.coindesk.com/cme-bitcoin-options-market-grew-10x-in-the-past-month
Italian Debt surging:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italian-debt-is-surging-but-investors-are-playing-it-cool-11591545600
Central Banks Liquidity Swaps:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SWPT
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[SPONSORS]
- Swan Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investing Made Easy
- Bisq: Bisq is an open-source, peer-to-peer application that allows you to buy and sell Bitcoin in exchange for national currencies. No registration required.
- eToro - The best one stop shop for everything Bitcoin and Crypto! Check out the best trading site at etoro.com!
This week, ck and Ansel sit down to discuss unemployment around the world.
Topics:
- Update on QE Activity from the FED and the ECB
- Stock markets rally globally
- The Robinhood effect
- China distancing itself from a CBDC
- Bitcoin stats
- Bearish on China, Greece, and Italy
- Bullish on Mexico
Links:
Fed balance sheet: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
Broad spectrum asset purchases: https://www.svb.com/de/blogs/eric-souza/alphabet-soup-the-federal-reserve-releases-an-array-of-emergency-measures
Inflation expectations: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR
More stimulus from the ECB: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/05/26/whats-the-ecb-doing-in-response-to-the-covid-19-crisis/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/european-central-bank-ramps-up-its-pandemic-bond-buying-to-1point35-trillion-euros.html
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[SPONSORS]
- Swan Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investing Made Easy
- Bisq: Bisq is an open-source, peer-to-peer application that allows you to buy and sell Bitcoin in exchange for national currencies. No registration required.
- eToro - The best one stop shop for everything Bitcoin and Crypto! Check out the best trading site at etoro.com!
This week, ck and Ansel sit down to discuss the eruption of social unrest stemming from the death of George Floyd.
Topics:
* Why are people angry
* The financial undercurrents
* Where Bitcoin fits in
* What this can mean for the future
With Ansel Lindner stepping in, we decided to rebrand the show as FED Watch. FED Watch is a Bitcoin Magazine podcast that focuses on Macroeconomics while acknowledging Bitcoin’s growing role in the future.
This week, ck and Ansel sit down to discuss unemployment around the world.
Topics:
-
Unemployment in America
-
Teasing out the active labor force participation
-
Unemployment globally
-
Cracks in China's Power
-
The transition to Bitcoin
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[SPONSORS]
- Swan Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investing Made Easy
- Bisq: Bisq is an open-source, peer-to-peer application that allows you to buy and sell Bitcoin in exchange for national currencies. No registration required.
- eToro - The best one stop shop for everything Bitcoin and Crypto! Check out the best trading site at etoro.com!
CK and new co-host Ansel Lindner discuss the recent ruling in German courts that deemed QE activity by the European Central Bank to be illegal.
Topics:
- German courts said ECB's QE actions were illegal under German law
- EU law is supposed to trump German law
- German courts give ECB 90 days to stop QE
- Real risk of Euro break up
- Fun fact: European REPO is already separated by country
Please rate and share the podcast!
You can find us @BitcoinMagazine on Twitter.
Ansel Lindner on Twitter @AnselLindner
Christian Keroles on Twitter @ck_SNARKs
[SPONSORS]
- Swan Bitcoin: Bitcoin Investing Made Easy
- Bisq: Bisq is an open-source, peer-to-peer application that allows you to buy and sell Bitcoin in exchange for national currencies. No registration required.
- eToro - The best one stop shop for everything Bitcoin and Crypto! Check out the best trading site at etoro.com!