Turner's Take: Recent Episodes
Craig Turner and Daniels Trading
Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner’s Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this podcast we take a look at the September WASDE expectations. We go over our long term support levels, why we like buying old crop down here, and how to start marketing new crop corn, soybeans, wheat and canola.
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this podcast we go over the dry Canadian Prairies and how it impacts canola and spring wheat. We talk about corn and soybean acres and yield potential, and why we think they are rangebound and the types of strategies to employ. We also talk about wheat's large ending stocks and why it makes sense to sell deferred contracts when the market is at a steep carry.
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that compliments this podcast, please click here.
To subscribe to our free quarterly marketing and price outlook webinars, please click here
All of my contact information is below. Please reach out any time about trading and hedging in the grains and oilseeds markets.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this podcast we go over new crop acres, the April WASDE, and why I think the tariffs on China could really be about IP protection
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that supports this podcast, please click here
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this podcast we over tariffs and the selling they are causing in the macro markets. We also go over the impact on grains and oilseeds prices.
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that supports this podcast, please click here
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
WEBINAR ALERT - Feb 20th, 2pm - Forecasting New Crop Acres and Price Ranges for 2025. To sign up for my quarterly webinar series, please register at www.grainsandoilseeds.com
In this podcast we go over the webinar we are having next week, our macro outlook, and why we are still friendly corn. Inflation is stronger than expected and the Fed will need to be more hawkish. The market wants the US to get spending and the deficit under control. Tight old crop corn stocks (US and Major Exporter) is the best story at the CBOT, but don't sleep on canola as old crop gets tighter and acres are likely to go down year-over-year!
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that supports this podcast, please click here
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Corn open interest is hitting a new record and the funds are long over 300,000 contracts. Some are questioning how much farther corn can go if the funds are so long already. We go over what can take corn the next leg higher. We also talk about 2025 acres and what it could mean for new crop prices.
To subscribe to our free weekly newsletter that supports this podcast, please click here
To sign up for my quarterly webinar series, please register at www.grainsandoilseeds.com
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
The Jan WASDE was bullish corn and soybean. In this podcast we go over why old crop corn is now considered tight on the balance sheet and what to look for in new crop prices. Soybeans are having a nice rally but the threat of a monster Brazil crop is a black cloud hanging over the market.
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
To sign up for my quarterly webinar series, please register at www.grainsandoilseeds.com
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
The Dec WASDE was bullish corn but March and July should hit resistance at $4.50 and $4.60 respectively. In this podcast we go over the WASDE, what needs to happen for corn and wheat to rally further, and why soybeans are still challenging.
For more information on our products and services, including newsletters, online trading, broker assistance, consulting, LRP, and cash grain sales, please click here.
To sign up for my quarterly webinar series, please register at www.grainsandoilseeds.com
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over why the grains and oilseeds may be bottoming and what the new trading ranges are for corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and canola. The podcast can also be viewed on YouTube here.
Make sure to check all our products and services at https://www.stonex.com/en/craig-turner/
Our next webinar is the day after the US Presidential election. We will be going over how to trade S. American weather markets and what the election results will mean for grain and oilseed prices. Please click here to register for our webinar series.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the USDA's September 2024 WASDE and what is means for grains and oilseeds. The podcast can also be viewed on YouTube here.
Make sure to check all our products and services at https://www.stonex.com/en/craig-turner/
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go why we think corn, wheat, and soybeans are forming long term bottoms. The podcast can also be viewed on YouTube here.
Make sure to check all our products and services at https://www.stonex.com/en/craig-turner/
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the August WASDE and what it means for prices going forward. We also start to take a look at what to do with old crop, how to market your new crop, and how to get started in for 2025 new crop.
If you need help with harvest and storage strategies, or getting started with your 2025 marketing year, then make sure you click on the link below and register for our webinar on August 28th:
Harvest and Storage Marketing Strategies for Corn and Soybeans
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over what the markets looks like if corn and soybean yield are above trend. We also go over why we think corn has the most bullish potential in 2025. If you need help with harvest and storage strategies, or getting started with your 2025 marketing year, then make sure you click on the link below and register for our webinar on August 28th:
Harvest and Storage Marketing Strategies for Corn and Soybeans
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the July WASDE. The report was very bearish for wheat. It was bullish for old crop corn and neutral for soybeans. The path of least resistance is still lower for the next six to eight weeks.
Also, make sure you click on the link below and register for our webinar on August 28th:
Harvest and Storage Marketing Strategies for Corn and Soybeans
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the June 28th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report. We are bearish corn and soybeans for the next couple of months but the lows may already have been made in wheat and soybean oil
Also, make sure you click on the link below and register for our webinar on August 28th:
Harvest and Storage Marketing Strategies for Corn and Soybeans
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the June 12 WASDE and what is means for corn, wheat and soybeans. We also talk about what to expect in the June Acreage report and the July WASDE. Finally we talk about how low prices can discourage 2025 acres and what it takes to get corn to $6 and soybeans in the teens.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
US and Canada planting weather premiums have come out of the market for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola. The market is comfortable enough with planting progress to move on to the growing season. The weather does get hotter in the forecast but there is also much improved soil moisture compared to the past few years.
Grains and oilseeds are getting to price levels in the US that are starting to be more competitive with S. America and the Black Sea. They say "low prices cure low prices" and the market will be looking for increased export demand on any big price declines going forward.
Farmers need to sell rallies, consumes can hold off on coverage until the fall, and I think everyone should look to buy the harvest lows come Sept/Oct. There is a chance we could get to price levels that are at (or below) the cost of production and it is either going to spark old crop demand or reduce new crop acres.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over the rally in wheat and what it means for prices in 2024/25. We also talk about the speculation in sub 90mm corn acres and why soybeans are likely just a follower with more downside potential than upside.
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we share our pre-WASDE thoughts. The May WASDE is the first time we see the USDA's supply and demand estimates for new crop corn, soybeans, and wheat
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
In this episode we go over why a Fed cut in 2024 is now unlikely. We talk about the value in Natural Gas and why Crude Oil may be range bound. We then go into why we are neutral/bearish on corn and soybeans, but also why Chicago Wheat has the best bullish story on the CBOT.
Make sure to register for our Marketing Corn in a Low-Priced Environment webinar. We will go over how we determine if crops are in tight, adequate, or burdensomely supplied markets. Then we estimate price ranges for old crop and new crop using stock/usage estimates, seasonality, and technical analysis. Finally we take all of this information and determine what strategies are appropriate for trading, marketing, and hedging based on stock/usage ranges. We will also go into detail the types of option, spread and futures strategies we recommend.
Please click here to register for Marketing Corn in a Low-Price Environment
https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/GrainsOilseedWebSeries/summary
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Make sure to register for our Marketing Corn in a Low-Priced Environment webinar. We will go over how we determine if crops are in tight, adequate, or burdensomely supplied markets. Then we estimate price ranges for old crop and new crop using stock/usage estimates, seasonality, and technical analysis. Finally we take all of this information and determine what strategies are appropriate for trading, marketing, and hedging based on stock/usage ranges. We will also go into detail the types of option, spread and futures strategies we recommend.
Please click here to register for Marketing Corn in a Low-Price Environment
https://stonex.cventevents.com/event/GrainsOilseedWebSeries/summary
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Tanner Beymer, the Senior Director of Government Affairs for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA), joins the show to talk cattle, risk management, and LRP. We take a deep dive into how LRP helps cattlemen manage risk and why everyone should be using it. If you are interested in knowing more about LRP please email craig.turner@stoneX.com and we will send you more information.
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Krista Swanson, the Lead Economist for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), joins the show to talk corn demand and policy. We dive into higher ending stocks for 2024/25, the GREET model and what is still being worked out in DC, and potential demand drives for corn/ethanol going forward. If you want to know more about the NCGA, please email Krista Swanson at swanson@ncga.com.
ONLINE TRADERS - StoneX has a fantastic online trading solution for both computers and smart phones. Quotes, charts, options, futures spreads, margin calculators, advanced order entry, icebergs, and much more. If you are interested in online trading you have to check this out: https://hubs.li/Q02mgYcJ0
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
The WASDE was neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat. Corn seems particularly range bound this year while soybeans and wheat do have better fundamentals for weather rallies. Make sure you listen to the interview at the end of the podcast with Ian Finn & Jake Stagner of the StoneX Commodity Solutions team as they explain how you can make physical sales through StoneX directly and still have control over your basis and delivery location.
ONLINE TRADERS - StoneX has a fantastic online trading solution for both computers and smart phones. Quotes, charts, options, futures spreads, margin calculators, advanced order entry, icebergs, and much more. If you are interested in online trading you have to check this out: https://hubs.li/Q02mgYcJ0
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Ian Finn and Jake Stagner of StoneX Commodity Solutions joins us to talk about their enhanced no margin grain marketing programs. Hosted by Craig Turner, we discuss the SCS group's managed bushel Merchants Plus program and their no margin Farmer Direct physical sales program. Farmers can use StoneX to lock in prices on the board and utilize custom products to enhance sales for physical bushels and then choose who they deliver to and when. Farmers keep the basis open and still have control of who they want to use for delivery.
For more information about no margin grain marketing, Farmer Direct, and the Merchants Plus program, please contact Craig Turner at 312-706-7610 or email Craig.Turner@StoneX.Com
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Come see me, Josh Linville, Arlan Suderman, and Mark Gold at the StoneX booth #2013 at Commodity Classic in Houston today and tomorrow!
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
The Ag Forum has new crop endings stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat expanding during the 2024/25 marketing year. Corn could be 2.5 billion and 18% stock to usage. Bearish! Soybeans at 87.5mm acres, a 52 yield, and 400 carryout is neutral but prices are still historically elevated. Wheat acres are lower but a higher yield increases ending stocks to around 700mm. Moral of the story is the grain and oilseed markets are transitioning from tight/adequate stocks levels to adequate/burdensome stock levels.
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
The USDA's Feb WASDE was bearish for soybeans and neutral for wheat and corn. The path of least resistance is lower until the funds have a reason to cover shorts. Old crop prices need to fall in order to find demand. New crop prices need to decline in order to reduce acres. The funds are about as short as they've ever been for this time of year. Soybeans are still relatively tight and have the most downside risk of all the major grain and oilseed CBOT markets.
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Contact Craig Turner via email or phone
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
X: @CornWheatSoy
Corn, soybeans, and srw wheat all put in bullish key reversals on the charts yesterday. A bullish key reversal is when the market is in a downtrend, the open is lower then the prior days open, the low is the lower than the prior days low, but then the market closes above the prior day's high.
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Grains & Oilseeds Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
Free Weekly Newsletter: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Free Weekly
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Coming Soon!
X: @CornWheatSoy
The Jan WASDE was bearish for corn and soybeans but bullish for wheat. Turner's Take is changing it's name to Grain & Oilseed with Craig Turner in order to fully integrate with StoneX.
For the free weekly newsletter that has supporting information for the podcast, please check out Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner newsletter.
or trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Grains & Oilseeds Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @CornWheatSoy
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
Free Weekly Newsletter: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Free Weekly
Premium Daily Newsletter for Producers: Grains & Oilseeds with Craig Turner - Premium Producers
Premium Daily Newsletter for Consumers: Coming Soon!
X: @CornWheatSoy
The Jan WASDE is Friday and we have some thoughts on corn, wheat, and soybeans. Turner's Take is changing it's name to Grain & Oilseed with Craig Turner in order to fully integrate with StoneX. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
Weekly Newsletter: www.turnerstake.com
Premium Newsletter: https://subscribe.stonex.com/turners-take-premium
X: @Turners_Take
SRW exports are larger than HRW for the first time I can remember. Corn looks rangebound and soybeans are tight. We go over grains, energy and why money flow might be coming back into the commodity markets again. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
312-706-7610
craig.turner@stonex.com
Weekly Newsletter: www.turnerstake.com
Premium Newsletter: https://subscribe.stonex.com/turners-take-premium
X: @Turners_Take
Risk Disclosure
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig Turner
Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 375If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastNewly elected libertarian Argentine President Javier Milei’s government is acting quick on campaign promises. Argentina will cut the value of their Peso by 50% as part of their “shock therapy” to try to rescue their failing economic system. Economy Minister Luis Caputo also announced deep cuts to public spending, government agencies, and energy subsidies
The current inflation rate in Argentina is 150%. Debt is spiraling out of control. Previous Arg governments had kept the Peso artificially high and the devaluation should put the Peso closer to it’s real value.
The reason we are talking about this today is the effect it will have on the Grain & Oilseed markets. Arg corn, soybeans, and wheat will all be much more competitive on the export market. Farmers will likely not sell at first, because it will take time for inflation to come down (and might even get worse before it gets better). Milei did not cut export taxes & tariffs on soybeans. He may keep those tariffs and put a tax of 15% on other grains markets. The initial concern was Arg farmers would flood the global ag markets if the peso was devalued, inflation came under control, and the tariffs were lowered. That does not seem to be the case a the moment. The government needs to reign in inflation, cut spending, and keep revenues high, and tariffs on ag exports are a big revenue generator for Argentina to help pay off their massive debts.
We’ll see how the market reacts today to the news in Argentina but weather in S. America and US/Canada export demand likely continue to be the major determining factors for price discovery.
For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 374If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastI’ll be at the Nebraska Ag Expo next week with StoneX at booth #3100. If you are there please come on by and say hello!
The balance sheets for corn and canola are concerning. Wheat may be tight for another five months but a good winter wheat crop in the N. Hemisphere solves a lot of tightness in that market. Soybeans are tight but a decent S. American crop and increased US acres in 2024 means lower prices. Canola has an export demand problem. Crush may increase 1 MMT this year but exports could be down 2 MMT. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 373If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastLower CPI and Core CPI readings have traders excited about the stock market again. Better inflation numbers could lead to the Fed holding rates steady as opposed to a quarter point increase by the end of the year. Crude oil is lower on better US production and lower demand out of China. Natural gas production in the US is robust and temperatures have been unseasonably warm. Oilseeds are leading the CBOT higher due to adverse weather for soybeans in S. America. Spring wheat demand is strong in Canada and the US, but KC wheat production was higher than expected and exports have been lagging. Corn looks to be the dog of the ag markets and can barely muster a rally during dry and scorching hot weather in Brazil. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium. Also make sure to follow me on twitter (x) here: @Turners_Take
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 372If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates elevated after their meeting on Wednesday but traders are more optimistic for rate cuts in 2024 than they were before the meeting. Stocks have rallied over the past couple of days and the Fed Funds futures are pricing in interest rate cuts starting next summer. Corn is range bound while soybeans is rallying due to weather concerns in C. and N. Brazil. Spring wheat demand is strong in Canada and the US, and keeps MPLS elevated. SRW wheat is competitive on the global market and should be good for continued export demand. The canola crop is likely bigger than what the USDA and Stats Canada previously estimated, and that is weighing on canola futures. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 370If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe funds are now short corn, wheat, and soybeans. US harvest is nearly 50% complete for corn and soybeans. Canada is wrapping up canola and spring wheat. Demand is poor and fund managers are building short positions in corn, wheat, and now soybeans. If we are going to see a post-harvest rally, N. American grain markets need better export demand for wheat, corn, soybeans, and canola. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 369If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but they intend to keep rates above 5% through 2024. Mexico is now the US’ largest trading partner, with Canada a very close second. China is a distant third and that is not helping demand for grains and oilseeds. Crude oil continues to rally even in the face of bearish news as supply/demand fundamentals get more bullish. Finally, we talk about harvest pressure and why corn, soybeans, canola, and wheat will have a hard time rallying for the next few weeks. Make sure you take a listen to the week’s Turner’s Take Podcast. For trade ideas and hedge recommendations, check out Turner’s Take Premium.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 367If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk energy and ag. Crude oil is testing resistance and could break out if demand stays high as days of supply trends lower. We also take a look at our new crop corn, soybeans, and wheat balance sheets. Below are the charts we reference in the podcast as well as the balance sheets. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
Crude Oil Chart
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About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 craig.turner@stonex.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 356If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastUS Congress has passed the new debt ceiling limit while also making spending cuts. The market should view this as bullish. The hot and dry June forecasts are bullish factors for grain and oilseeds. On the other hand the expansion of new crop ending stocks combined with poor global demand has been bearish. Yields are determined in June and July so the next six to eight weeks are critical to global grain stocks. Short term traders will look to play the weather market but in the long term the path of least resistance is lower as commodity markets usually revert back to the mean. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 355If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe WASDE was bullish high protein wheat (KC and MPLS) and bearish corn/SRW wheat. Soybeans and canola were fairly neutral. In this episode we go over the recent Federal Reserve rate increase and why the market is pricing in a rate cut by the end of the year. We also talk about possible price ranges for the major grain and oilseed markets. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 354If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe CBOT is finding support after two weeks of selling. HRW (KC) Wheat is leading the charge higher. Recent rains in the the western belt did not improve wheat prospects as much as the trade initially thought. The CBOT as a whole was oversold and due for a rally. The May WASDE is next week and the USDA will include new crop supply and demand estimates for the 2023/24 marketing year. The trade has priced in a bearish report for corn and soft red winter wheat (Chicago). Soybeans, hard red winter (KC) and hard red spring (MPLS) could still be tight year-over-year. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 353If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastUS Q1 GDP growth is only 1.1% vs expectations of 2%. Businesses are cutting inventories, jobs, and higher interest rates limit new capital investments. The Fed will meet next week and the market is looking for a quarter point interest rate increase. The poor economic numbers and expectations of a recession should continue to keep energy prices low. The grain and oilseed markets had a bad week with old crop corn leading the way lower. Poor old crop export demand, lower Brazilian prices, Chinese cancellations, and favorable new crop planting weather all contributed to the decline.
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 352If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastDeeply discounted Brazilian corn and soybeans has led to speculation of imports coming to the US. A few cargos of soybeans are going into the US Southeast due to the high demand for poultry feed. In years of high prices S. American corn/soybeans have been able to make it to the SE when prices pencil. The question is how much will this impact US exports and can enough corn and soybeans make it to the US to ease tight old crop supplies. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 351If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastFavorable Midwest weather is great for new crop corn and soybean planting and pressuring prices to start the week. The dry weather is not good for HRW wheat (KC) as drought conditions worsen. Russia is playing hard ball again in the Black Sea to continue the Grain Export Corridor agreement. The markets should be mixed as we head into the WASDE tomorrow, 4/11 at 11am CT. Historically the April WASDE is not a major report but the USDA is expected to reduced S. America production, which could increase US export demand and therefore reduce US and Major Exporter ending stocks. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 350If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastPlanting intentions were bullish soybeans and spring wheat but bearish for new crop corn. Given 87.5 million acres of new crop soybeans and a trend line yield of 52 bpa, ending stocks stay tight year over year. Spring wheat acres were 10.5 million and I think it needed to be closer to 11 million to help ease prices. Corn was 1 million higher and came in at 92 million. With a trend line yield of 181 bpa, new crop corn ending stocks could expand to 1.9 billion. My big takeaway is soybeans will be very volatile this spring and summer. Old crop soybeans are tight and now new crop looks to be tight too. This should also be supportive for canola. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 349If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThanks to everyone who came by the StoneX booth last week to say high at Commodity Classic in Orlando, FL. This week we talk about the banking crisis and how it effected the grain markets. We also take a look into winter canola in the US and our expectations for the March 30 planting intentions report. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 347If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe grain and oilseed markets may have put in a winter/spring seasonal low this week. The Ag Forum reminded everyone ending stocks will increase year-over-year for many ag markets. S. America crop production losses are mostly priced in with Arg soybeans around 30 MMT and corn at 40 MMT. Seasonality tends to turn bullish for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola in March, April, May and into June. Our long term view is bearish as commodities tend to revert back to the mean, but we could see some upside during the planting and growing season. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 346If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe Ag Forum leaned bearish for new crop corn with 91 million acres, a 181.5 bpa trend line yield, and nearly a 1.9 billion carryout. That puts stock/usage at 13% and corn in an adequately supplied market. Soybean acres are projected to be 87.5 million, with a 52 bpa and 290mm bushel carryout. That puts stock/usage at 6.5% and still remains a tight market. Wheat acres up nearly 4 million and only increases ending stocks from 568 to 608 million. Wheat remains a tight market with MPLS and KC tighter than CHI. We go over the implications and were we see the markets going in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 345If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this podcast we take a deep dive into analyzing endings stocks, stock/usage, and days of supply. We talk how prices are ultimately determined by a combination of US ending stocks and global exporter ending stocks. Then we look at the trends over the years and why the market are more sensitive to tight wheat stocks compared to canola, soybeans, and corn. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
CLICK HERE TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH CRAIG TURNER & STONEX
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 344If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk the strong US jobs numbers despite increasing interest rates and tech company layoffs. We then look at the energy markets and why we are bullish crude oil in the June to December time frame. We then talk about why the risk is to the upside in old crop grain/oilseeds but why we are bearish new crop corn, soybeans, and canola. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 343If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk about the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve each raising interest rates by 0.25% and why we think rates only go up another quarter or half point before stabilizing for the rest of the year. We take a look into energy and why we like summer and year end call spreads in crude oil. Finally we talk about canola, soybeans, wheat, and corn for both old crop and new crop. Old crop remains tight but new crop acres/trend yields lower prices by the end of 2023. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 342If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThis week we talk about the macro economy, US interest rate policy for 2023, corporate layoffs, the expected recession. We then dive into soybeans, canola, corn, winter wheat, and spring wheat. Farmers should be looking to clear out old crop and make more sales/hedges for new crop. Consumers need to make sure they are covered for the next two quarters but do not need to be aggressive with purchases for the second half of the marketing year or into 2024. We break it all down in this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2023 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 341If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe USDA released the Jan WASDE, Quarterly Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings report on Thursday. The USDA cut old crop corn and soybean production. Winter wheat acres are up 3.5 million from last year. Old crop corn exports were reduced due to high prices and US soybean exports are lower based on expectations of a large Brazilian harvest. We talk about all of that plus what to expect going forward. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 340If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastThe commodity markets sold off start 2023 but stabilized by the end of the week. Investors and traders are concerned about global growth and recession. We talk about the macro markets, recession risks, and the upcoming January WASDE report next week. We also dive into OTC and structured products. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
CHRISTMAS SURPRISE | A few weeks ago my family decided to foster a dog we would be able to adopt after she got spayed. Illinois law says you can’t officially adopt a dog until they have been spayed/neutered. We did this with our first dog Zipper a couple of years ago and it was a great experience. The dog we are fostering now is some kind of poodle mix; about 1 year old. The rescue organization thinks she was a breeder dog who was released into the wild after having her first litter. They vet said she showed signs of being a recent mother.
I thought we were lucky to get her because she came into the shelter just the day before. The kids named her Buttons on the spot, the vet gave her some kind of shot and we were on our way. When we got home Buttons made fast friends with Zipper.
Fast forward a few weeks to Sunday morning. My wife and I agreed to have Christmas start at 7:30am and we were going to hold a hard line no matter what the kid said. At about 7am I went downstairs to the kitchen to make some coffee. Buttons likes her crate, so she sleeps in there every night right by our breakfast table. I look over at the crate after I start the brew and I notice there is just a little bit of blood on the floor. I wipe it up and as I turn my head to the crate, I see Buttons giving birth. I’m staring at this and can’t believe she is having a puppy. I give Buttons a quick scan to make sure she is doing OK and to my surprise there are already three other puppies in the crate. This is her fourth puppy. It is Christmas morning. The coffee has not yet completely brewed.
The kids were lined up and down the staircase, daring not to set foot on the first floor as if it were covered by lava. They knew the 7:30am rule but they heard me milling around in the kitchen. I didn’t want them to miss this so I got them lined up on the stairs. If they came down the stairs and went straight they would be in our living room where we keep the tree and presents, so I told them they had to make a hard left turn and go to the back of the house, directly to the kitchen.
Once in the kitchen they watched Buttons give birth to her 5th pup of Christmas morning. By this point my wife had heard the commotion and probably thought we started Christmas without her. I heard her coming down the stairs and I could already tell it was not a happy descent. I looked at my watch and it was only 7:15am. We’ve been happily married for 17 years so I’m expecting some harsh language as she enters the room, but I know we’ll be all good in about two seconds after she sees what Santa brought.
What happened next will probably be my all time favorite Christmas memory. As my wife turned the corner, she saw me and our four children sitting by the dog. She stopped dead in her tracks. Her expression changed from extreme annoyance, to utter disbelief, and finally dumfounded joy. What went through her head at that moment is anyone’s guess. Considering she is the mother of four school aged children and works full time, I’m going to assume at some point her inner monologue was laced with profanity. She composed herself, sat down with the family, and we started Christmas morning together, with our four kids, Zipper, Buttons, and five new puppies.
Meet Eddie, Ralphie, Kevin, Noelle, and Jovie
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 339If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastHappy Holidays and Merry Christmas! We will be closed on Monday, 12/26, the day the exchanges and banks observe Christmas Day. It has been a slow week and most likely so will next week between the Christmas holiday and New Years. In this podcast we go over why we think energy prices could be higher over the next six months and also why grain and oilseeds could be lower. I’m working from home next week so if you need to talk please call my cell phone. If you are interested in our thought about Ag and Energy over the next few months, then make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 338If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk about central banks raising interest rates this week. The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points. Last week the Bank of Canada raised rates by a half point too. Macro markets are selling off as traders grapple with a hawkish Federal Reserve in 2023. We then get into the energy and ag markets. We are still bullish on crude oil and heating oil. Soybeans and corn seem to have more risk to the downside than wheat over the next few months. We wrap up by looking at the major wild card in the grain market right now, S. American weather and what it can mean for prices. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 337If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk about the Bank of Canada raising interest rates and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. We then go into the Natural Gas and Petroleum markets. We end the podcast with a discussion why wheat finds support at these levels but soybeans and canola could run into resistance. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 336If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!New PodcastIn this episode we talk about the grain and oilseed markets and why see them grinding lower. Wheat may hold up the best over the next few months but corn and soybeans could have problems if S. American has a bumper crop. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels TradingTo open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 334
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In this episode we go over the better than expected CPI number, how inflation may be starting to stabilize, and why the markets rallied. We then talk about the shortages in diesel and how user can hedge their price risk over the next six to eight months. Finally, we go over the WASDE and USDA 10 year baseline report. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Our price models suggest elevated prices for grains and oilseeds in 2023, with wheat the strongest into 2024.
Interest rates have gone from 0% to 3.25% but have not decreased the rate of increase for inflation.
Canada is set to produce a bumper canola crop as long as frost does not get in the way.
In this podcast we talk about ag prices and how they are impacted by recession, interest rates, and rising inflation.
US GDP for Q1 was -1.6% and -0.9% in Q2. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
US fuel prices are on the rise and part of it is due to energy policy. If true then this is a supply issue. If policy is written in stone inflation is structural. If policy can change the inflation could be structural
The US may already be in a recession, energy prices are bullish due to declining refinery capacity, and row crops are heading for summer weather markets
Quarterly stocks came in as expected, soybean acres were a bullish surprise, but that couldn't stop the selling in corn, wheat, and soybeans
The markets sold off this week due to fears of higher interest rates that may cause a recession
Talks between the UN and Russia about a "grain export corridor" brought wheat prices down this week. We are skeptical a deal gets done based on how Russia has conducted itself with the war and their stance on suppling energy to Europe.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 311 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! New Podcast In this week’s episode we ask the question how will inflation change trading ranges in the ag markets once we go back to adequate and burdensome stocks. Will… Read more.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 308
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast Today we go over what planting delays mean for the hard red spring (HRS) wheat. This market is also known as Minneapolis wheat. The US plants about 11mm acres of HRS and Canada will plant over 17mm for a combined 28 million acres. North Dakota accounts for half of all US HRS wheat acres, and makes up about 20% of all HRS production in N. America. The delays in ND are serious and if farmers can’t plant HRS wheat in the next three weeks they could choose their Prevent Plant option. To make matters worse, hard red winter (HRW) wheat, also known as Kansas City wheat, is below 30% GD/EX and there is a real concern about production this year. There is a lot of uncertainty and risk in the wheat market this year, and we haven’t even touched on the Black Sea yet. If you want to know more, then please take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & PodcastLearn MoreView a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
ND farmers have until May 20th to plant HRS wheat before Prevent Plant becomes an option
Fed Chairman Powell said taming inflation is "absolutely essential" and the market is pricing in a 50 basis point interest rate hike for the next FOMC meeting in May.
It has been a record travel month for me professionally. I guess COVID is over because it seems like travel restrictions are coming to an end, US states and foreign nations are easier to travel to, and Corporate America is back to bank on the road.
Farm Advantage is a free app and has market quotes, advanced charts, StoneX research and reports, USDA insurance info, BAMWX weather, and cash bids across the nation.
Thanks to everyone who came out to Commodity Classic and swung by the StoneX booth to say hello
Flat price winter wheat futures were limit it up most of the week but that did not prevent those markets from trading
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 300 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
In this week’s podcast we go over Russian/Ukraine, US inflation, and they impact the macro markets. Then we switch gears to next week’s Ag Forum and what it means for the grain and oilseed markets. The Ag Forum will give us the USDA’s first look at new crop acres, trend line yields, and demand figures. We are very interested to see how the USDA accounts for the lost demand in S. America and how it finds its way into the to the US balance sheets for old crop or new crop exports. Soybean oil projections for biodiesel production will be another big data point to review. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast.
Click here to open an account with Craig Turner & StoneX today!
AG FORUM The USDA’s 2022 Ag Forum is 2/24 and 2/25. This is a big report for a couple of reasons. The first is we get to see USDA estimates for new crop acres. The second is we get to see what the USDA thinks about new crop demand. We don’t see a planted acres report again until the end of March and we don’t get to see a new crop balance sheet until the May WASDE. Below is a chart of US Summer Row-Crop Panted Acres. The chart includes corn, soybeans, spring wheat, durum, and cotton. One of our themes has been there is not enough new crop acres to be around. All of these markets have high prices, tight balance sheets, and a need for more acres. It will be interesting to see if the mix stays the same or if the USDA thinks there might be one winner (or loser).
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 299 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST Lots of news and information to go over this week. We talk macro markets and trends but then focus on the CONAB surprise and what it means for grain and oil seed prices for 2021/22 and the 2022/23 marketing years. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
CONAB SOYBEAN ESTIMATES CONAB shocked the oilseed market and cut production down to 125.5 MMTs. The table below is from our team in Brazil. It is in Portuguese but the six rows are for Acres, Yield, Production, Domestic Use, Exports, and Ending Stocks. Yields were reduced 12.5% and that took production from 140 to 125 MMTs. Exports were lowered by 9 MMTs and results in minimal ending stocks for Brazil. The big question for me is where does the lost 325mm bushels of export demand go if not Brazil? I’m guessing at least 200mm comes back to the US.
Global stocks or soybeans and oilseeds are tight. S. American production losses could shift enough export demand to the US that results in minimum pipeline ending stocks. The US needs 90mm+ acres of soybeans and a trendline yield or better to build up very tight stocks levels for 2022/23. I still like buying call spreads and selling put spreads for both old crop and new crop soybeans.
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Drought Monitor Below are the drought monitors for the US and Canada. The US western corn belt (WCB) is dry and need precipitation. The SW needs it the most. Canada is also dry from Saskatoon to Calgary/Edmonton. This year we need as much US (corn, soybeans, wheat) and Canadian (canola, wheat) acres and production as possible. There is still a lot of time for conditions to improve but things are not off to a great start. Prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola will most likely remain elevated until more is known about N. American acres and yield potential. Given the tight stock levels, drought conditions, and demand levels, our bias is bullish on breaks.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 298 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST The Bank of England raised rates this week to 0.50% on a 5-4 vote. The four no votes wanted rates to increase to 0.75%. The EU has changed its tune and is now considering more hawkish monetary policy for 2022. We go over the macro markets, the Feb WASDE, and what we think about wheat, corn and soybeans. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
WASDE ESTIMATES The USDA will release their February WASDE on Wednesday, 2/9 at 11am CT. Brazil soybean production estimates range from 126.5 MMT to 137.5 MMT. Brazil corn along with Arg corn and soybeans are all expected to be lower by about 2 MMTs. CONAB will also be updating the market on Brazil crop production next week. Traders are speculating CONAB may get aggressive with production cuts in order to help the government start to determine farmer aid packages.
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SOYBEANS Below are my estimates for soybeans and what the balance sheet could look like with a 20 MMT loss in South America. It basically puts US Ending Stocks at pipeline minimums for 2021-2022 (old crop) and 2022-2023 (new crop) marketing years. Only 90mm+ acres and a trendline yield or better this summer gets soybeans back to adequate stock levels for 2022-23.
CORN Below are my estimates for corn and I included a scenario of S. America losing 10 MMT of production. Ending stocks at 1.3 and 1.2 billion is bullish but not as bullish as the soybean example. Corn needs 91mm acres and a 180bpa (trendline and record) just to keep pace with demand. Lets hope farmers are able to plant the acres and get the fertilizer to max yields.
WHEAT Below are my estimates for All Wheat. The US needs 48mm acres and a yield of 49 bpa just to keep stocks about the same levels year-over-year. The US has become the residual supplier of wheat to the world. Profitability per acre has favored corn and soybeans for much of the corn belt since the introduction of RFS. We are finally starting to see trend in increased acres for wheat. This could be the year when acres and a trend line yield can keep ending stocks from going lower year-over-year.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 297 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this week’s podcast we start off with the Fed announcement and why we think the US Dollar Index will strengthen and why the CAD and EU will weaken. We then move onto February Natural Gas and why you should not hold positions into Last Trading Day (LTD). We end the podcast with our thought on the grain and oilseed markets and why our favorite picks for the spring and summer is corn and soybean oil. Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
NATURAL GAS If you have an account with me I may have called, emailed our texted you when a position is a week away from First Notice Day (FND) or Last Trading Day (LTD). We always want traders to get out of a market either the day before FND for grains or LTD for energy. Only commercial traders and accounts involved in the delivery process should be involved in the markets on last trading day. The markets get thin, it is hard to get in an out, and if you have too many specs on one side of the market you can get some unbelievable price action.
February Natural Gas is a perfect example. We had a $3.00 trading range in Feb while March was only up $0.30 cents. If I had to guess, someone was assigned a lot of short positions last night (after Feb option expiration) and they had to buy them all back today. A $3 move in NG is $30,000 per contract. Moral of the story – don’t carry positions into delivery periods or into Last Trading Day.
Click here to open an account with Craig Turner & StoneX today!
Feb Natural Gas – Last Trading Day
GRAINS Wheat rallied hard as Russia escalated tensions with Ukraine last week. The past two day wheat prices have come down as the two nations, NATO, and the US are in diplomatic talks. If talks break down wheat can go right back to where we were in the beginning of the week. Below is the US Drought Monitor. Much of the HRW wheat crop area is dry. The western Midwest and Southwest are in dire need for precipitation.
Arg Corn GD/EX rebounded this week to 32% from 22% last week. GD/EX was nearly 60% at the end of 2021. Rains in Argentina have stabilized the crop but damage to yields and quality have been done.
Brazil second crop corn is in pollination in March/April. While much damage has been done to soybeans there is still time for corn to have a good growing season with improved weather. The better corn in S. America will likely come at the end of the harvest season which could lead to more US export demand in the short term.
OILSEEDS March Malaysian Palm Oil hit new all time highs this week, Canola has been trading over $1000, and March soybean oil hit contract highs for this time of year. Indonesia is limiting exports to keep the cost of cooking oil lower for domestic use. Brazilian state Parana estimates soybean production losses of 6mm MT, over 30% of their crop. Private estimates have total Brazilian soybean production between 130 to 135 MMT, which is 5 to 10 lower than the USDA and CONAB.
Soybean oil was trading in the high 40s this time last year. We are now in the mid 60s with export demand greater and domestic biodiesel production increasing. I continue to like buying July call spreads and selling put spreads. Since 2006 global demand for vegetable oil has increase almost 4% per year with no negative growth years. Demand is very inelastic and renewable biodiesel mandates are expanding. Soybean oil is arguably the best bullish story in the grain market today.
Soybean Oil Daily Chart
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 296 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this podcast we go over US new crop acreage estimates and what it could mean for corn, soybean and wheat prices in 2022. Based on our work it seems like there is not enough US acres to go around. Without trendline yields or better, 2022 might bring another marketing year of tight ending stocks and elevated prices. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
CORN Corn and soybean acres tend to max out around 180mm in the US. We currently have new crop corn at 91mm acres which leaves 89mm for soybeans. Some may say the corn number is too low but with high input costs and high prices of other commodities, we think acres will be lower for corn outside the main corn belt.
Below is a chart of major corn exporter stock/usage ratios going back twenty year. According to the Jan USDA global exporter are at 8.5% stock/usage. The lows in 2011 and 2020 were 7%. When production losses in S. America are all account for we could be back at that 7% low again for 2022.
Click here to open an account with Craig Turner & StoneX today!
At 91mm acres and a trend line 180 yield (which would be a record by 3 bpa), US production just barely keeps up with demand. Ethanol use is ahead of USDA pace needed to meet WASDE expectations. The USDA will most likely have to raise ethanol use by 50 to 100mm bushels. Production losses in S. America could shift 100 to 200mm bushels in exports back to the US. The point is ending stocks are probably closer to 1.2 to 1.3 billion instead of 1.5 billion. Also note that at 91mm acres and a record 180 bpa ending stocks do not change year over year.
I like buying call spread and selling put spreads in July for spec and farmer re-ownership. For farmers looking to sell new crop during the growing season I think some courage calls to sell into make a lot of sense too. Call me and we can figure out the best strategy for your account.
SOYBEANS Soybeans at 89mm and a national 51 bpa keeps US production equal to total demand. Major exporters have tight stock to usage on par with the 2011 lows. Soybean production losses in S. America could lead to the tightest stock/usage ratios for major exporters in the past 20 years.
While soybeans are charging higher, canola and EU rapeseed are trading at $18 and $19 per bushel respectively. The market is aggressively price rationing canola and rapeseed and encouraging consumers to substitute soybeans for oilseed products. As the marketing year goes on we could see more soybean demand come from traditional canola/rapeseed buyers.
The USDA has old crop soybean carryout at 350 but since the Jan WASDE S. American produciton estimates have come down another 5-6 MMT. Another 100 to 125mm bushels of export demand could come back to the US. That could put ending stocks closer to 225 to 250mm bushels. Keep in mind at 89mm acres and a 51 yield new crop ending stocks don’t change year-over-year. Some will argue 89mm is too high if corn is at 92 or 93mm acres. There is just not enough acres to go around this year.
WHEAT .Major wheat exporter stock/usage is as tight as it was back in 2007 when we had $20 wheat!
At 48mm acres for All Wheat and a healty 49 bpa yield, ending stocks are the same year-over-year. That could be a tall order considering the drought we are seeing in HRW country. Some may say 48mm acres are too high, but anything less sends stocks lower even with a trend line yield or higher. Winter wheat needs to stay above $7 and spring wheat above $9 to attract sufficient acres.
Outlook There is not enough acres to go around to make sure every major grain and oilseed market is adequately supplied next marketing year without trend line yields or higher across the board. This sets up for a volatile planting and growing season. Based on our work the bias is to the upside with the potential for extreme price swings if weather markets develop.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 295 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST The USDA released their January WASDE today along with the Quarterly Stocks Report and Winter Wheat Seedings. The report was fairly neutral. SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and winter wheat finished 13 cents lower. Global soybean sticks tightened more than expected and soybeans closed 13 cents higher. Corn was caught in the middle. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
JANUARY 2022 WASDE The January WASDE was a non-event today. SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and global soybean ending stocks were lower than expected. There was nothing in this report that could cause a limit move or change a trend. South American soybean production was lowered almost 10 MMTs. This results in the a net draw on global ending stocks year-over-year instead of a build. Further losses in South America will tighten major global exporter stocks.
Corn was neutral with no surprises. Carryout is now 1.5 billion. We were surprised the USDA lowered corn exports. I personally thought they would stay the same or go higher due to production losses in S. America. Below is a summary of US old crop production and ending stocks, South American productions, and winter wheat seedings.
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New Crop Supply and Demand Ideas Below are my early ideas on 2022-2023 new crop corn and soybeans. I’m going to assume 91mm acres corn with a trendline yield of 180. For soybeans it is 89mm acres and a yield of 51.
At 91mm acres and 180 bpa, US supply just barely keeps up with demand. Prices stay elevated in the $5s with weather markets into the $6s. Some traders are arguing for 94mm acres corn. If that is the case then we have to add on 500mm bushels to ending stocks. That means 2 billion carryout on a record production, beating old yields by 3 bpa. That is probably the best bear case I can come up with. A bull case of 91mm acres and a 175 yield puts corn in the $7 to $8 range. It doesn’t take a lot to get corn going another dollar higher this spring/summer if acres are 91 or even 92mm.
At 89mm acres and a 51 bpa, US supply just barely keeps up with demand. 89mm acres is only 1mm shy of a record. A 53 yield puts ending stocks at 500. A 49 yield sends ending stocks to 200 or lower. A 2 bpa difference from trend could be the difference between $10 and $15 soybeans.
Hold on to your hats this summer, it could be a wild ride.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 294 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this podcast we go over the Fed minutes and why the markets thought they were more hawkish than expected. We talk about why the US Dollar Index could go over 100 and stay there. We also go over why corn could still have more upside, why China is buying US soybean cargos, and the weakness in wheat.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 293 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST Grain markets opened up stronger Sunday night but eventually succumbed to omicron shutdown fears. It this podcast we go over inflation, interest rate hikes, and the threat of omicron shutdowns. We also talk about why covid shutdowns hurt energy markets more than grain and oilseeds. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Macro Markets Equity and energy are leading the markets lower today as omicron is spreading around the world. Traders are concerned the high rate of infections could lead to some government imposing economic shutdowns.
The Bank of England raised interest rates last week from 0.10% to 0.25% as monthly inflation is hitting 6%, three times their acceptable target. The US is tapering bond purchases and plans for three rate hikes in 2022. These are hawkish policies to fight inflation. China on the other hand cut lending rates as they are still dealing with their real estate crisis. It is impossible to know what the real inflation rate is in China but one has to assume it is elevated just like the rest of the world. As major global economies are tightening fiscal policy, China is easing. Their real estate crisis is probably worse then they are letting on in public.
Below is a chart of the US Dollar index. A close above 97 continues the bullish trend. A close above 98 could lead to a break out to 100. Major support comes in at 94.50.
US Dollar Index
Grains & Oilseeds The markets opened up stronger on threatening weather in Argentina and S. Brazil but the screen eventually went green to red as the global macro markets caused selling pressure across the board. South American weather is forecast to be hot and dry over the next two weeks. This is the time of year when the markets build weather premium into corn and soybeans. Seasonally corn, soybeans, and wheat trend higher for the next few weeks. The markets may be down today due to omicron shutdown fears but once they selling subsides, grain and oilseeds should be first to rally.
India announced today a halt on agricultural futures trading for the next year. India is the largest importer of vegetable oil and the are very concerned about food inflation. While this move will most likely have minimal impact on global vegetable oil prices, it does imply India thinks food inflation will get worse before it gets better.
Below is a chart for March Corn. If Argentina and S. Brazil stays hot and dry for the next two weeks then corn should close above $6.00 and could trade between $6.20 and $6.40. Timely rains and a break in the heat put $5.60 in play. The next few weeks will go a long way in determining the S. American crop.
Holiday Week The markets will be closed Friday, December 24. Thursday is a full trading day but once we close the markets will not open back up until Sunday night. Please note that volumes tend to get thinner the closer we get to Christmas.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 292 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
NEW PODCAST In this week’s podcast we focus on the USDA’s Dec WASDE report. The market viewed it as bearish wheat, neutral corn, and bullish soybeans. We see the trade quickly digesting this report and then moving on to trading US exports and S. American weather. I think MW and KC wheat will find support on the breaks. Corn has the potential to break through $6 on increased demand or S. American weather issues. Soybeans will most likely be range bound but the USDA was supportive for soybean oil. To learn then please take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
DEC WASDE MIXED WHEAT – This report is moderately bearish for wheat. Exports for all US wheat were lowered by 20mm bushels to 840mm. The USDA noted the slower pace for HRS wheat exports and lowered HRW wheat exports too. High prices are rationing demand. Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated for the rest of the marketing year and will discourage exports. The US will be the residual supply of wheat on the global market. Global wheat stocks came in at the high end of the range. Consumption is higher but also is production and ending stocks.
CORN – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global corn stocks were up slightly but overall this report was neutral for corn.
SOYBEANS – US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov. Global soybean production was lowered along with ending stocks due to lower Chinese production. This is mildly bullish for soybeans.
SOYBEAN OIL – The USDA did note the EPA biofuel mandates and kept 2021/22 use at 11 billion pounds. Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in order to offset lower canola and cottonseed oil production. Ending stocks stayed the same, but use increased, which makes the stock/usage tighter to almost 7%. Soybean oil is forecast to have an average price of 65 cents per pound in the cash market.
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 291 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In this week’s podcast we go over what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell meant when he told Congress inflation is no longer transitory. If inflation is not transitory then it is structural. Powell acknowledged the “risk of higher inflation has increased” and now the market will expect the Fed to accelerate their tapering along with two or three interest rate increases in 2022. We also go over our views on the energy and ag markets, why we like old crop corn and soybean oil, but are sellers of new crop wheat. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Energy Crude Oil found support today just above $62, which was support tin May and August this year. Crude was able to trade about $5 off the lows at the close, and this was after OPEC announced they would pump more oil. This type of buying at a major support level, in the face of bearish news, is usually the sign of a low. Crude needs to hold $62 or it could go down to the March lows of $57.
Continuous Daily Crude Oil Chart
Grains & Oilseeds United Airlines flew a 737 yesterday from Chicago to DC with one of the engines running 100% on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), aka biofuel. This is another example of why I am bullish vegetable oil (soybean and canola) for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to see the EPA comment on biodiesel mandates but that might not happen until President Biden gets his Build Back Better deal sorted.
Corn is currently in a range between $5.50 and $5.95. For corn to break out over $6.00 there has to be a real S. American weather threat. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released a report warning the market of a potential drought in Jan/Feb due to La Nina conditions. I find it hard to put a lot of stock in long range weather forecasts but this is a story to follow. US and global corn stocks are tight and a major weather issue in Argentina and S. Brazil could send corn over $6.20 if the market thinks S. Am production could come down 5% or more.
I like buying the May Corn $6.00/$6.70 call spread and selling the $5.50/$5.00 put spread for around even money. If the market tanks then we have limited risk to the downside. If there are real issues in S. America or we have lower than expected US corn acre due to the fertilizer situation, we can always roll up the $6.70 leg on the call spread.
Continuous Daily Corn Chart
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 290 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast It is Thanksgiving week and we are already seeing lower volumes and less trader participation. Money flow is still coming into commodities from the inflation trade. Interest rates are on the rise. Western Europe nations are starting to impose lockdowns for COVID and that has pressured the energy markets. At the CBOT wheat continues to lead the ag markets. We talk about all of it on this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
Thanksgiving Week Thanksgiving week tends to be a slow week at the office. Each day the volumes get lighter. The US markets are closed on Thursday. Wednesday is a full day of trading but it feels like a half day. Friday is a half day of trading and it feels like a holiday. I’ll be around so give me a call or send an email if you need anything.
Wheat Wheat rallied again today as rains in Australia threaten to reduced the quality of the new crop. Below is a chart of Major Wheat Exporters Carryout and Stocks/Usage Ratios. I like this chart because it shows how tight the world is with respect to exportable wheat. The new harvest in Argentina and Australia will help but I don’t think we see a material build in supplies until the next Northern Hemisphere harvest.
This is a histogram for new crop Hard Spring Wheat (Minneapolis). We should see an expansion of acres for spring wheat in the US and Canada. They say “high prices cure high prices” and new crop MW is getting to very high levels. Sept (new crop) closed at 9.35 today. That is in the top 5% of prices over the past 10 years. Farmers should look to sell some new crop spring wheat at $9.40 or better. I would do at least 10% of expected new crop production.
Corn The high price of fertilizer and other chemicals is causing a significant spike in corn inputs this year. Analysts are predicting some acres switching from corn to wheat and soybeans. Below is a chart of urea at the gulf. Prices just seem to keep climbing higher.
Corn prices in the US and around the globe continues to be elevated. Corn in China is still over $10. The US is competitively priced on the world market despite the high valuation of the US Dollar. The chart below shows the stock/usage for major corn exporters. Any significant increase in use or supply loss could send us the US exporters to historically tight stock/usage levels. This chart (combined with the price of wheat) best explains how US corn carryout can be 1.5 billion yet old crop can be $5.75 post harvest.
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample
Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
Risk DisclosureThe StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved
About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 289 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast I’ve been traveling all week in Canada. It is snowing in Saskatoon so I hope I make my connecting flight in Vancouver. That’s right, the best option for me today was Saskatoon ->Vancouver -> Chicago. Before the pandemic we could fly direct to Saskatchewan but there isn’t enough air travel yet to get those flights back. This podcast was recorded at the hotel so the audio quality is a little off this week. It will be back to our regular production standards once I’m back in the office. We spend most of our time this week on the November WASDE and what we are looking for going forward with corn, wheat, soybeans, canola, soybean oil, natural gas, and crude oil. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.
November WASDE The November WASDE was supportive for grain and oilseeds. The big concern going into the report was higher soybean ending stocks due to lower export demand. Demand was weaker but the USDA also decreased production a half bushel to 51.2. The result was a moderately bullish surprise and soybean stocks only climbed 20mm bushels to 340 million bushels
Global soybeans stocks were lower but global corn stocks are higher. The market has settled out after the initial report response to the better than expected numbers. Wheat is still tight and will be the leader with corn also a bullish driver. Soybeans are stuck to between a large S. American crop coming in a few months but tight corn and wheat stocks in the US and globally.
WHEAT Going forward Wheat will stay elevated but the market knows that the world produces wheat for export every few months. The major exporting nations are the US, Canada, Argentina, EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Australia. Argentina and Australia will have week for export in the next month or two. That should help alleviate tight stocks. A good crop in the N. Hemisphere in 2022 could bring stocks back go normal levels. The moral of the story is while wheat is in tight supply now and deserves to be the leader on the board, wheat an also go back to more historical prices quicker than corn and soybeans due to all the wheat that is produced around the world.
SOYBEANS I am concerned about new crop soybeans. If S. American has a good crop and we see more N. American soybean acres due to the higher input costs for corn, then soybeans could be $1 to $2 lower this time next year. Farmers need to use rallies to price/hedge 2022 new crop soybeans.
CORN Finally, I do like corn and think $5.50 is a good value area. China is buying corn right now from Ukraine and I personally think that is because they want to avoid reporting how much corn they need. Corn in China is still high and around $9 and $10 per bushel. Corn in the Ukraine is more expensive than US corn but their is no daily reporting system in Ukraine. A shrewd trader would buy the Ukraine corn first and then come to the US and S. America later this year. Corn is adequate to tight with a carryout below 1.5 billion, feed will be strong due to the tightness of feed wheat, and ethanol margins are very positive given the energy situation in the US and globally. When you consider the price of fertilizer and how that impacts margins for corn producers on lower productive ground, we could see lower acres in the US or less fertilizer usage. Either way corn should be supported in the $5.40 to $5.50 area with resistance at $5.85, $6.00 and finally $6.20
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
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Contact Daniels Trading To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.
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About Craig TurnerCraig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 288 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast This week we take a look at inflation and why we are seeing substantial price increases for many goods and services. We also talk about Fed policy, high energy and ag prices, and they supply chain issues in the US and globally. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Macro Markets Inflation in the US and global economy is has been a major theme of the macro markets lately. The Fed is open to tapering asset backed purchases but they don’t want to start raising interest rates until 2022. Money is flowing into commodities and crypto. Supply chain issues are keeping products from reaching the shelves and increasing prices at the same time. The Fed has recognized inflation is a real issue. Tapering asset backed purchases will be the first step in fighting inflation. Interests rate hikes in 2022 will be the second step. Solving supply chain issues will allow more supply of goods into the market and keep prices from rising due to low inventory. Analysts don’t see energy supply catching up with the demand until the spring so expect elevated energy prices to last until March. Ag prices will also stay elevated until we can get a large crop out of S America and the US next summer (see Food Price Index chart below). Some of the inflation we are seeing has to do with US monetary policy. Some of the inflation is transitory but supply will eventually catch up to demand for energy and ag. The rest is due to government policy and regulations. The good news is a lot of these issues eventually work themselves out but it will take some time.
Energy Crude oil can run to $95 if OPEC does not increase supplies. OPEC can change the market at anytime by increasing production. Right now they don’t have as much competition from US Shale producers as they did seven years ago. The US “drilled but uncompleted wells” are at 2017 levels. $85 crude oil is profitable for US Shale companies but you can’t turn on new production overnight. It is hard to see OPEC increase supply until they feel the threat of a non-OPEC nation coming in and taking market share. Natural gas rallied today too. NG is trading in a range of $5 to $6.50. I don’t think we can break higher without colder temperatures. Keep in mind in the years we had tight NG stocks the market traded between $6 support and a record high $14. The majority of the time NG traded between $8 and $11. We have not seen those types of prices in years but 10 to 15 years ago it was a common occurrence. Natural gas is still my favorite energy play heading into the winter. The trick is to find limited risk trades that don’t cost an arm and a leg in premium. Finally, even coal is making a comeback. China is trying to source as much energy as possible as we head into the winter and they are turning to coal to hopefully make up the deficit. China committed to cleaner energy for the past 4 or 5 years. To see them switch back to increasing coal production is a strong sign of energy shortages in Asia this winter.
Grains & Oilseeds Global vegetable oils remains to be tight, canola and palm oil are soaring, and that is still supportive of soybean oil (see char below).
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 287 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast This week we go over the latest US jobs report, the sort term debt ceiling deal, and the inflation in energy and food prices. We talk about our price ranges for crude oil and natural gas and why we see elevated prices at least until spring 2022. We also go into the record prices in oats, the impact soybean oil will have on soybeans and meal, and what a fertilizer shortage could mean for 2022 new crop acres. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Macro Markets Stocks are on the rebound and interest rates are lower after the US Senate agreed on a temporary increase to the debt ceiling. This is a short term solution that will come up again in December. The September Employment Report was a big miss to the downside. Economists were looking for about 500K jobs and the number was just under 200K. Unemployment is now at 4.8% which was better than expected, but the decrease was largely due to people no longer looking for work. In the eye’s of the US government, if you are not looking for work then you are not unemployed. The August report was revised to show an increase of jobs by over 100K. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. Energy I’ve been talking a lot about Natural Gas lately but lets not forget about Crude Oil. Nov Crude hit $80 early today and we haven’t traded this high in years. Some analyst are calling for a $90 target. $65 should be very strong support. If we are in an energy crunch and economic growth stays strong, then the new range for crude could be $65 to $90. In the past it was in OPEC’s best interest to start pumping more oil when it got to these prices to A) capture additional market share and B) discourage increased production from high cost produ...
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 286 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In today’s podcast we go over the US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates and tapering bond purchases. We also talk about Natural Gas and how high prices this winter could impact fertilizer prices and acres/yields next growing season. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Natural Gas If you’ve seen a recent chart of Natural Gas then you’ll know what the subject of this podcast is referring. Wow! I thought NG could hit $6 this winter. I did not think it would happen by Sept 28th. Below are some charts for US, UK, and Dutch NG futures. When Natural Gas is in tight supply in the US it traded between $6 and $14 from 2001 to 2009. Those years of high prices brought out a lot of investment in energy resources and development, and kept the NG market well supplied for more than a decade. Take a look at what is going on in Euro (Dutch NG futures) and the UK. Prices are higher across Europe and the United Kingdom has it the worst at the moment. On average Natural Gas prices are about 5 times higher than normal. In the US supplies are tight and this is the time of year when we need to be building inventory for the winter. Production is lower and part of that is from the slowdown during COVID shutdowns, but part of it is also from the move to clean energy. Natural Gas is in higher demand now and policy initiatives have discouraged the use of coal. Volatility NG is going to be volatile. I doubt the move higher is over. For users of energy, natural gas and fertilizer, I like think you have two options. The first is you lock in as much physical as possible and then buy a put just in case the market crashes. If you don’t want to commit to physical purchases I would look into calls as insurance against higher prices this winter. Speculators should look into buying futures and a put for protection. I also like buying Dec call spreads and collection some premium selling Nov put spreads. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a specul...
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 285 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In today’s podcast we go over the Sept WASDE report and take a look at the numbers for corn, soybeans and wheat. The report was neutral for the board overall. The September WASDE is usually the turning point when the market stops focusing heavily on supply and turns its attention to demand. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Sept WASDE Neutral The WASDE report today was fairly neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat. Below are the results. CORN – new crop ending stocks at 1.404 billion is very close to the 1.382 average analyst guess. Old crop carryout increased by 70 million due to a 30mm loss in exports and 40mm loss in ethanol. New Crop acres up 600K was expected and yield increased 1.7 bpa to 176.3. New crop carryout was higher due to larger production but the USDE did increase exports and feed 75mm. This is neutral for corn. We think the market now starts to transition from focusing on supply and starts to look more into US demand. For corn to rally we need to see the Gulf get back online for corn exports. SOYBEANS – New crop ending stocks at 185 million bushels is close enough to the 190 average trade estimate. Acres came down over 300K and the trade was looking for a slight increase. Yields increased 0.6 bpa to 50.6. The net result is a 30mm increase in ending stocks from 165mm to 185mm. This was neutral for soybeans. We expect the market to now focus more on demand (domestic crush and exports to China) going forward. WHEAT – US wheat numbers were barely changed. The only thing of note was the global stocks increasing 3.3 mm mt due to increased production out of Australia and India. SUMMARY – Neutral report and we should start to transition from a market focused on supply news to a market focused on demand news. Demand for soybeans seems constant from China and will be supportive for weeks to come if demand stays steady. The corn market needs the Gulf to get operational again for export demand Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are aÂ
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 284 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast In today’s podcast we go over the macro markets and why strong corporate profits will encourage the Fed to follow through with tapering starting in October. We also talk about the Natural Gas market and why we think it continues to rally this fall and winter. Finally we dive into the grain markets, talk about the coming transition in seasonal trends, and why the grain and oilseeds could rally once US exports pick up again. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Natural Gas Natural Gas is up 30 cents. NG started the day up 10 cents but then gained another 20 after the EIA reported only a 29 Bcf injection for the weekend ending Aug 20. The market was looking for 39 Bcf with some analysts estimating injections in the 40s. Natural Gas stocks are already tight and this is the time of year the US needs to be building large stocks for the winter. Total working gas in storage as of Aug 20 was 2,851 Bcf, which is 563 Bcf below last year and 189 Bcf below the five year average.  While are no shortages now, the market could get very tight later this year if winter cold starts early or if the winter is colder than normal. Below are daily and monthly charts of NG. The breakout today could see prices eventually challenge the $4.92 highs from 2018. If we get an early and cold winter traders will be talking about the $6.00 resistance level from 2014 and 2010. During the years when Natural Gas was in tight supply (2003-2009), $6 was major support. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. Daily Natural Gas Chart
20 Year Monthly Natural Gas Chart
Grains & Oilseeds The CBOT continues to chop. Old crop basis continues to sag as grain is priced before Sept futures FND and end users are willing to wait for new crop harvest. During years if adequate to burdensome stocks this is a bearish period. Old crop and new crop is tight for corn and beans so the market is more choppy than bearish...
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 283 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast The USDA’s August WASDE was bullish for corn and wheat while slightly bearish for soybeans. In our podcast we go over why the markets will trade in range for the next month or two but could really take off later this year. Also take our first look into the 2022-23 marketing year for corn and soybeans to see what the ending stocks (and price) might look like a year from now. Make sure you check out this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. August WASDE Analysis They say it takes two days for a major USDA report to trade. Day one the market trades the headlines. Day two the market trades the guts of the 40 page report. I went through the WASDE again last night and today and these are my main takeaways
- The major US grain markets will remain tight for at least six month and possibly the entire 2021-22 marketing year
- The high price of wheat, corn and soybeans will make it difficult for any one major crop to “buy acres” from the other
- Corn and soybeans are likely to be choppy and trade in range until export demand picks up during harvest. This is the time of year weather premium comes out of the market as the USDA confirms the size of the crop. Deliveries against Sept futures along with harvest pressure have bearish influences in the market. On the flip side the market knows we have tight stocks, end users will use breaks to add to coverage, and we expect a lot of demand interest during harvest. For the next month or two we like being short straddles.Â
- South America has to have a good crop. The US and the world can not afford another short crop from a major exporting region. It would not just be an issue of high prices. Another bad crop means shortages of grain and oilseed. The last time this happened in 2012 animals were culled due to lack of feed and lead to a two year livestock bull market.
- Meal could be the most plentiful feed substitute for corn and wheat shortages. The high price of vegetable oil may mean crushing for oil and meal gaining feed share vs corn and wheat. The IUS could be a much larger exporter of meal next year while keeping the soybean oil home for biodiesel processing.
- October through Dec could be big months for grain price rallies if demand is strong during harvest and an early La Nina impacts S. American growing weather.
I think we are going to have tight stocks and high prices for at least six month and possible for a full year. That lead us to take a look at the 2022-23 marketing year. We assumed 180mm acres of corn and soybeans combine, about the same as this year, with 88 to soy and 92 to corn. With trendline yields and similar demand estimates year-over-year, corn and soybean stocks get back to adequate levels. Odds are the US is at least a year away from $4 corn, $6 wheat, and $10 soybeans, and that is with a good S. American crop and trend line yields for 2022-23. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 282 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast Today on the podcast we talk about the possibility of new US lockdowns for August. It is starting to leak out the WH and CDC have been talking to governors about lockdowns starting in the second or third week of August. This is not set in stone but it is being considered. States do not have to follow WH/CDC recommendations but I’m sure those governors who are politically aligned with the administration will follow orders. If the US goes into a partial lockdown in the next few weeks we expect the markets to decline but as much as they did last year. The trade knows how to discount economic growth during covid lockdowns. Their is not as much market uncertainty as the last time around and the big funds, commercial producers, and corporate end users should all have some sort of playbook now. Make sure you check out this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Out of the Office Next Week I am out of the office next week. If you are a client and need something please call my office at 312-706-7610 and one of the brokers on our trade desk will be able to help you out. It always helps covering brokers if you have your account number handy when you call. I tend to take my family vacation at the end of summer after the crops are generally made but before school starts. We took our family vacation during July 4th week back in 2012 and I think I spent half my time on the phone. Lesson learned! Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. Weather Rains in South Dakota last night and better chances for cooler weather and rain in the Midwest this weekend is weighing on the CBOT right now. The milder temps are a reason for natural gas to sell off today too. Below is the US Drought Monitor as of 7/27 (released yesterday). The eastern corn belt is going great. North Dakota is in extreme drought while MN and SD are in severe drought. N. IA is experiencing widespread moderate to severe drought. The next WASDE is August 12th and there is a go...
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 281 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast The DOW was down 900 points midday and crude was $5 lower as the market took a “risk-off” approach to possible new covid related shutdowns. The grain markets were up in the overnight but could not fight off the selling in the energy and global equity markets. When the macro market stabilize we expect the grain markets to rally. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Macro Market Meltdown Stocks sold off today due to concerns of the covid delta varient spreading around the globe. The threat of economic shutdowns brought on the selling and the DOW was down over 900 points today. Crude oil also sold off due to the shutdown threat but OPEC didn’t help their cause either as they announced the end of production cuts by the end of September 2022. We had talked about being short in energy in Turner’s Take incase of economic shutdowns but ultimately I think this ends up being a buying opportunity. The US and global economies are just getting going again. Any covid related shutdown will just pent up more demand going forward. Keep in mind when you have 2nd and 3rd reiterations of a crisis or crash, it is rarely as bad as the first time around. If you think back the debt ceiling fights or when the Euro was at risk of collapse, the biggest shock to the system is the first time it happens. As with many things, the sequels never quite pack the same punch as the original. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. Weather Weather models over the weekend trended hotter and drier in the 10-14 and also in the longer term outlooks into August. Problem issues continue to be parts of the western corn belt, northern plains, and Canada. The images below are from BAMwx.com and weathermodels.com. They show the weekly evaporation rates are about 1″ to 2″ this...
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 280 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast This week we go over the Fed minutes, crude oil, natural gas, and the grain and oilseed markets. We like crude oil but it is due for a correction. Natural Gas is up about 50% year over year and we talk about why that trend is likely to continue. Finally we talk about the grain and oilseed markets and why we like soybeans and soybean oil more than corn. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. Fed Meeting Minutes The Federal Reserve meeting minutes for were released today for the June meeting. While the committee talked about tapering and higher rates, they want to see a full recovery post-COVID first. Rate hikes and tightening are a long way off in 2023. The Fed did acknowledge inflation concerns but said most of the price increases were transitory, which means short term in nature due to unique market supply and demand events. Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account. If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. Energy I still like Crude Oil but we are due for a correction. The delta variant could cause some shutdowns overseas and that would put a short term hit on the crude market. Longer term I still like energy but in the short term there could be some opportunity in the bear futures spreads. Sept/Dec rarely gets above $3.00 and it is around $2.85 now. A correction could bring that spread to $2.00 or lower. Longer term I like crude and if you don’t want to take a shot shorting the market, then use the next correction to get long Dec call spreads. Natural Gas is up 50% in the past year. Supplies have come down as production slowed due to COVID shutdowns and demand has surged due to renewed economic activity, warmer weather, and strong export demand. The draw on Natural Gas could continue for the rest of 2021 as supplies are not seen building on demand until 2022. That makes $4 a target for Dec NG this summer and possibly $4.50 this winter. Sept vs Dec Crude Oil
Dec 2021 Natural Gas
Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 279 If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
New Podcast The acres report and quarterly stocks report is next week, June 30th, at 11 am central. Expectations are high for gains in both corn and soybean acres. Quarterly stocks can also be a huge wild card this time of year for old crop corn. Weather has been getting better for the Midwest but we are still in the midst of a strong grain demand market. We go over all of these aspects of the grain markets and how we want to position ourselves going into the big report next week. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast! If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free! You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take. June 30th Report Estimates The CBOT has been selling off due to weaker cash prices, better Midwest weather, and the expectations of increased corn and soybean acres. The Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports will be released Wednesday, June 30th, at 11am central. Traders have been reducing risk into the report due to the uncertainty that surrounds expected acres. CORN On March 31st the Perspective Plantings report has 91.114mm corn. The trade is looking for a 2.6mm increase. Some analysts this the acres could be 95mm while no one thinks it is lower than 92. Quarterly stocks are always a wildcard for corn. When it comes to tracking stocks and demand, the trade does a good job understanding the export and ethanol usage. Feed is another animal all together. This is where the market can really get expectations wrong since we are only updated on this figure once every three months. Here is something to think about next week. 94mm acres and a trend line yield put ending stocks close to 2 billion and prices towards $4 at harvest. 92mm acres and a 174 yield puts ending stocks closer to 1.1 billion and corn goes back to trading in the $6s and $7s. SOYBEANS The March 31st report pegged soybean acres at 87.6mm. Teh trade is looking for almost 89mm. The high estimates are 90.4 and the low is 87.9. For every million acres of soybeans we add to new crop, production increases by 50mm bushels. A 2mm acre increase could put new crop soybean ending stocks around 250mm. That is tight but suggest soybeans trade in the $10 to $12 range. If we don’t get the increased acres or yields are lower this summer, we could see soybeans go back to trading in the $12to $15 range. The Big Takeaway Traders are reducing risk into a highly unpredictable report next week. I suggest you all do too. There is no reason to be naked short options into this report. If you have have futures positions then make sure you have a long option for protection. Don’t get heavy into this report on Wednesday! Interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing? If so then click here to open an account.