Realtor Mortgage Market Update: Recent Episodes
Alberto Gamez
A daily real estate agent centric podcast designed to give real estate agents valuable information regarding today’s mortgage market. You can also see the video in the Facebook group Realtor Mortgage Market Update #remmu
Hello Folks, I am back from some R & R ! So much to cover…PCE inflation Home appreciation Jobs jobs jobs made rates go up how much today ?And what in the world is the 2023 population control effect ?
How did Japan help rates improve on Wednesday ? PPI peaked at 11.7% where is it now ? And Dare I say we may have a soft landing ?How are builders feeling about things ?Wow did mortgage applications go up !
- Did rates go up or down today and why ? 2. What are sellers doing that builders have been doing ?3. What is going to help bring down inflation and in turn bring down rates.
Highest month over month increase in shelter cost since 1985….no way ! 1. Did rates improve on Thursday ? 2. What prevented Core CPI from dropping further ?3. When do I think rates will could improve next ?
Don’t look now but 2023 is starting out fairly good but why ?What did rates do last week and what will they do this week.
- Want to reach 70% of new homebuyers from now until 2042 ?2. What could improve rates today ?3. How was the market the last 2 weeks of 2022
- What will home prices do in 2023 according to CoreLogic. 2. Is the US in the IMF countries heading for recession list ? 3. What is going to drive gasoline prices UP ?!?!
More evidence that going forward there will be a pick up in activity. What did the Fed Minutes say?How much have mortgage applications gone up in a week ?
Want to get listings and offer potential buyer’s mortgage rates from a year, or 2, or 3 years ago ? More evidence to add to my lower rates in 2023 prediction. Who are the most dangerous people to mortgage rates and markets ?How much inventory do we really have ?
The Fed did it again…talked ! Bullard and his Bull sheetShow your sellers what builders are doing to sell sell sell. Did rates get better today ?
How to bring Buyers back to the market and get them approved (not pre-approved) without a property. And what is the 1 for 10 formula ? Who has the advantage right now? Sellers or Buyers ? Why ? Where are more and more $100,000 plus households now buying their groceries ? Don’t eat a blue Jolly Rancher before doing a video !
Year over Year inflation and Core inflation both down but what does this mean for mortgage rates and where shipping / freight heading ?
The Fed is not going to let mortgage rates get better. What did the Fed do to put the kabash on mortgage rates today.
As I have been forecasting, inflation in lower and rates followed. Biggest 1 day drop in rates that I have seen in 32 yrs of mortgages. Inflation could have been lower but what prevented that ? And where do I think rates will be in 2023.
Happy New Year and Welcome to 2021 !
Before 2020 ended Housing appreciation and year over year sales roared !
Will Georgia elections affect mortgages rates ?
And if the Democrats sweep Georgia, how is VP elect Kamala Harris the tie breaker ?
remmu
Two things that will change 2021. Why bonds move lately without economic news. 1st public Pfizer vaccine given, and who is moving back in with mom and dad.
I predict the public Will start receiving covid vaccine by 12/15. Rates improved last week. Today, 3rd Vaccine announced.
Why rates went up on Election Day and why they came back down and why taxes should not go up even if Biden wins the presidential election.
No deal yet between Fancy Nancy P and Mnuchin, average demand for today’s 20 yr bond auction, mortgage applications down, and 4th day in a row that rates have increased.
Appreciation up 5.5 % year over year and 1.2% just in July...are you kidding me ? Call every buyer you had in the last 24 months and give them the great news.
Don’t let the media fool you. Price index up, median price up, appreciation up, but where is consumer confidence. #remmu
Existing Home Sales, which measures closings on existing homes, were up an impressive 25 percent in July. These are closings and likely represents buyers that signed contracts in May and June. This the largest one month jump in the history of the existing home sales survey, going back to 1968 and remember that the June report was up 20.
Yesterday we had a lousy 20 yr auction and the Fed minutes were released but despite all of that we ended the day on the plus side.
The Senate adjourned for its August recess on Thursday, joining the House, as Republicans and Democrats remain $1 trillion apart on a coronavirus relief package. And here is the real tragedy let’s say law makers come back and do work out a deal...#remmu
Initial Jobless Claims are released and for the first time in 21 weeks, claims have fallen below the 1 million level.
Rates on the way up. Is it time to hit the panic button ? Bidding wars in over 50% of contracts.
Rates went up today, and I think Bonds are at a position where they are due for a pullback. And who knows what will happen this afternoon after the Fed is done buying mortgage bonds for the day. You and your customers have not missed yet, My team and I are here to help you.
The Core rate, which is most important and what the Fed focuses on, is well below the Fed's target of 2%. And with inflation so low and declining, it provides the Fed with cover to continue Quantitative Easing without the fear of inflation. Something very interesting Within the report, Personal incomes fell 1.1%, while Spending increased by 5.6%.
Initial Jobless Claims are released and for last week 1.434 Million individuals filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This was about 12,000 higher than last week and the second week in the row of rising claims. This Should not be a surprise as some states are reclosing things and we are running out of PPP funds. On the Continuing claims front, those continuing to receive benefits, also increased from 16.79 Million to 17.018 Million.
Pending Home Sales, which measures signed contracts in existing homes, were up 16.6% in June after
New Home Sales which measures signed contracts on new homes, rose for the third straight month, as new home sales were up 13.8% in June, which was much stronger than the 4% gain anticipated. Sales are now up 7% year over year And that is What's most impressive to see.
18 straight weeks of a million plus, a tentative $1 trillion deal, and 20% of the U.S. workforce receiving benefits.
Unemployment still massive. How much is it people making more not working and how much is it fake claims ?
Purchase applications down, refinance applications up. Moderna brings hope to COVID-19 as all 45 participants produced. antibodies
30-days or more delinquent, up from last month. Those seriously delinquent (meaning 90 days or more delinquent), remained at 12%. Homes in foreclosure dropped from 0.4% to 0.3%...but you won't see the longer term effects until later as that 3.6% spike I mentioned earlier, in 30-days or more will likely translate to more 90 day delinquencies. The foreclosure drop is likely due to forbearance, which has been giving people a lifeline and lets hope this lifeline does not turn into as they say, kicking the can down the road.
Are Investors looking past rising coronavirus cases and new shutdowns and instead are focusing on fiscal and monetary support from central banks and governments to lead to recovery and contain economic damage?
Another good day for Interest rates and did 32% of renters and homeowners really “miss their July housing payments” ? Really ?
Will home prices drop 6.6% from May 2020 to May 2021 ? What happened to a 1.3% drop ? https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx#:~:text=Home%20price%20growth%20is%20expected,0.3%25%20compared%20with%20April%202020.&text=Nationally%2C%20the%20for%2Dsale%20inventory,on%20average%2025%25%20in%20April.
Strong Jobs report moves rates minimally. More important was the jobs report accurate ?
I've been saying that the combination of Positive economic news and positive virus vaccine news will put upward pressure on rates. With today’s news that Pfizer and BioNTech see early positive results for a coronavirus vaccine candidate, will a strong jobs report tomorrow raise rates ?
Home values and home sales are up but what will happens to your business when the market changes ? To grow your future business today do to www.agentmarketingbook.com
Existing Home Sales and Contract signings to purchase existing homes in the U.S. surged in May by the most on record. The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales increased 44.3% to a three-month high , after falling 21.8 percent in April, the largest single month plunge on record, right after the second highest fall of 20.8 percent in March.
Stocks opened lower amid concerns of new restrictions on reopening the economy as the U.S. saw another single day record in daily coronavirus confirmations. The total number of cases has exceeded 2.4 million, primarily in the southern and western states.
Unemployment still massive, continuing claims still massive and how long can these historic low rates last ?
Real Estate agent have been attacked, raped, and even killed. This 1 tip can literally save your life.
It’s the U.S. -Chine deal over? Why did the market go on a wild ride Monday night ? Great resource / tool for realtors and it’s free www.agentmarketingbook.com
The Fed has been buying more of the 2% coupon lately. If the Fed keeps this up, it could work out well for interest rates.
On a year over year basis, purchase applications are 21% higher, which is my comeback story of the year, after being down 35% year over year back in April. Americans stuck at home are looking to upgrade their properties, in some cases, move away from cities and One thing I did not mention yesterday regarding the National Association of home builders report is that The NAHB is citing an urban to suburban move being made by many.
Remember from day one I have been saying real estate will lead us out of this and this is why you as a real estate agent are so important and in such a great position to not only help your buyers and seller but to help your local economy and beyond.
Buyers are out looking and writing contracts. But where are the sellers ? Maybe they are not selling because low inventory is preventing them from buying.
...which means there are big opportunities for you to sell to move up buyers and combine that with all the 1st time hombuyers coming into the market (watch my report form 2 days ago) you as a realtor are in a great spot to sell and list properties.
We are now half way through 2020. What is your plan for the rest of the year, well according to TransUnion, at least 8.3 million first-time home buyers will enter the mortgage market between 2020 and 2022, and according to Housingwire 26.1% of renters surveyed with leases expiring in the next six months said they are likely to renew their lease, 35.9% are likely not to renew and 38% are somewhat likely or not sure at the moment. Renters who pay more than $1,750 a month are the least likely to renew at just 18.7%, while 41.6% said they are not likely to renew.
BLS unemployment rate was wrong because of a “misclassification” error and businesses are opening again. Check out these two great properties https://www.homesnap.com/homes/for_sale/MD/Chester/Keister-Drive/p_51,71665/c_38.964296,-76.294478/z_19/m_7,92306961. https://www.homesnap.com/MD/Annapolis/822-Bay-Ridge-Avenue
A swing of 10 million jobs from what was expected to reality, this is the biggest gap between an actual payroll count and a forecast in the history of this data, and we may never see a similar gap again.
continuing claims, which measures people continuing to receive benefits, increased by 650k to 21.5M. This means more individuals continued to receive benefits, quite a change from the 4M less in the previous report because people came back to work.
Comeback story of the year, Purchase applications up a solid 5% and Job losses for May way wrong from the 8.75 million job losses predictions.
Are sellers coming back ? Ever wonder what to say to buyers and sellers , I have scripts for you.
Investors leave stocks for safety of bonds. Personal incomes up 10.5%. Spending down 13.6%. Savings rate went to an all time high of 33%. Don’t throw away credit cards that come in your mail from Money Network Cardholder Services it could be your stimulus $$$
Appreciation for March is out and According to JP Morgan An estimated 65%-75% of out-of-work Americans who are receiving unemployment benefits are being paid more money per week than they were receiving pre-pandemic from their employment.
On this Memorial Day Holiday. We want to thank those in the active military and our veterans for all of their sacrifices and all they do. And a big shout out to my son Tyler Gamez serving in the U.S. Army god bless you son and my father Alberto Gamez who served in the U.S. Army.
Real estate is going to lead us out of this. Let's stay focused and list and sell more homes.
FHFA Director Mark Calabria said "Homeowners who are in COVID-19 forbearance, but continue to make their mortgage payment, will not be penalized," Here is what this allows 1. keeps the real estate and mortgage market functioning as efficiently as possible 2. Gives borrowers in forbearance faster access to these record-low rates. 3. As for you, the real estate agent, it allows you to list more homes and sell more homes. #remmu