Kellogg's Global Politics: Recent Episodes

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In this episode, we feature an interview with Sam Erhlich, a manager at McKinsey and Company and a student in my Strategic Materials Industry Study. We discuss why critical minerals are crucial to national security and how best to strengthen the U.S. industry

First, however, we look at the runoff elections in Colombia and what a far-right win would mean for the country and the region.

We next turn to North Korea’s surprising economic trajectory since the pandemic and the latest on its diplomatic efforts.

Ryan updates us on one of his favorite topics— aliens and what—if anything—was actually revealed on “Disclosure Day.”

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 03:15 - Colombia Elections
• 18:45 - North Korean Economic Resurgence
• 48:25 - Disclosure Day Bust
• 1:03:36 - Interview with Sam Ehrlich on Critical Minerals

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Topic 1: Colombian Elections

• Abelardo de la Espriella is now the front-runner in Colombia (The Economist)
• Colombia’s far-right presidential candidate De la Espriella wins first round of vote ahead of runoff (The Guardian)
• Who is De la Espriella, the Colombian far right’s presidential candidate? (Justice for Colombia.org)

Topic 2: North Korean Economic Resurgence

• The World’s Most Surprising Economic Success Story Is…North Korea (WSJ)
• A ‘Miraculous Transformation’: How Kim Jong-un Fortified North Korea (NY Times)
• China and Russia are competing for influence over North Korea (The Economist)
• The North Korean Threat with David Maxwell

Topic 3: Disclosure Day Bust

• US DOW UAP Disclosure Site
• I’ve reported on UFO sightings for decades — and come to this conclusion (WaPo)
• The Newly Released Government UFO Archives Will Leave You Shrugging (TWZ)

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In this episode, we continue our coverage of the war with Iran. Where are we on the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran? How soon can we expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen?

We then discuss the stunning upset of Orban in Hungary. How far will his successor go in returning the country to a liberalized democracy? What does this mean for far-right movements across the globe?

Finally, we return to Venezuela to discuss the current situation there and examine the implications of this case for U.S. goals in Cuba.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09:20 Iran-US Peace Talks & Energy Markets
• 30:40 The Downfall of Orban and What it Means for the Global Far Right
• 55:30 The Donroe Doctrine: Venezuela's Success and Is Cuba Next?

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Topic 1: Iran-US Peace Talks & Energy Markets

• The Price of Peace With Iran (Foreign Affairs)
• The U.S. Military Was Losing Its Edge. After Iran, Everyone Knows It. (NY Times)
• Oil markets are still in La La land (The Economist)

Topic 2: The Downfall of Orban and What it means for the Global Far Right

• How Orban, a Wizard of Populism, Lost His Magic Touch (NY Times)
• Orban’s Defeat Punctures Europe’s Far Right, but Also Offers It a Road Map (NY Times)
• The Transatlantic MAGA Fantasy (Foreign Affairs)

Topic 3: The Donroe Doctrine: Venezuela Success and Is Cuba Next?

• Venezuela is not the triumph Donald Trump claims, but it’s improving (The Economist)
• A dirty deal with Cuba would be better than the alternatives (The Economist)
• With Cuba Under Pressure, the Castro Dynasty Is Making a Comeback (NY Times)

Anita's article "Operationalizing Economic Statecraft," in War on the Rocks

Anita's webinar on the above article

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This episode follows up on our previous two, focusing on Iran. Where are we one month into this war? When and how is it likely to end? We also wonder about the U.S.’s strategic plans for this war. And does regime survival in Iran mean that it may be losing battles but ultimately winning the war?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 1-month In: What has the US and Israel accomplished?
• Iran’s Strategy to Survive: Target the Global Economy
• US strategy going forward and the prospects of a ground war

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

• The Revolutionary Guards are taking over Iran (The Economist)
• In an Asymmetrical War, Iran Seeks an Edge With Its Information War (NY Times)
• The Price of Strategic Incoherence in Iran (Foreign Affairs)
• Iran’s Long Game (Foreign Affairs)
• Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous (The Economist)
• Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran (WaPo)

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We are bringing you an emergency podcast on the war with Iran.

It seems like only yesterday that we put out a bonus podcast on the strikes in Venezuela. That’s because it was just two months ago, and it may have encouraged a sense of military adventurism that has led to full-on war with Iran.

Today, we are talking about who is currently ruling Iran at present. What are the U.S. goals? And what is likely to happen in the future? Will the regime fall? And if it does, what kind of government would likely replace it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US-Israel Strikes on February 28th
• The Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key national security leadership
• Iranian Succession Options and U.S. Endgame.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

• America’s attack on Iran turns a taboo into a method (Steve Simon, The Economist)
• The Folly of Attacking Iran (Nick Kristoff; NY Times)
• John Bolton Sounds the Alarm on Trump’s Iran Gamble (Politico)

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The protests in Iran are largely over, but will the heavy-handed crackdown result in the U.S. taking military action? Is Iran poised to be the next Venezuela?

Trump demanded, then backed down over U.S. ownership of Greenland. What was the final agreement, and was anything really accomplished?

Greenland wasn’t the only thing that grabbed headlines at Davos. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared the end of the rules-based international order. If this is true, what comes next, and what steps will middle powers, like Canada, take to serve the best interests of their countries?

Finally, we discuss the recent purge of China’s top military leaders. What does it signal about potential military action against Taiwan?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 08:30 - US plans for Iran
• 26:00 - Greenland Crisis and End of the Post-War World Order
• 53:00 - Chinese Military Leadership Purge

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

• US plans for Iran
  • Trump Weighs New Military Options Against Iran (NY Times)
  • Is America about to attack Iran? (The Economist)
  • Donald Trump wants to end America’s half-century conflict with Iran (The Economist)
• Greenland crisis and End of the Post-War World Order
  • The Most Important Foreign Policy Speech in Years (NY Times)
  • Trump’s Greenland Envoy: We Need ‘Total, Unfettered Access’ (NY Times)
  • The Globalization of Canadian Rage (NY Times)
• Chinese Military Leadership Purge
  • What is behind Xi Jinping’s sweeping military purge? (The Economist)
  • The Unsettling Implications of Xi’s Military Purge (Foreign Affairs)
  • China’s Disappearing Generals (NY Times)

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On Saturday, the U.S. announced that it had captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who, along with his wife, arrived in New York a few hours later to be tried on drug trafficking charges.

Then, President Trump said that the U.S. would be running Venezuela in the near term. So what does this all mean? We cover the latest on this stunning development and what is likely to happen over the next few days and weeks.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US Military Capture of Maduro on January 3rd
• Trump Press Conference and who will run Venezuela
• Implications for Russia and China

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

• EIA Breakdown of Venzuela Oil Industry
• Trump Says America will Run Venezuela (UK view-The Rest is Politics)
• Trump Finally Told Americans What This Was All About (NY Times)

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The United States has a new National Security Strategy. What does the world look like under the Second Trump Administration? Should the U.S. no longer strive to be a superpower? We take a look at what in the document seems to strengthen U.S. security, as well as what elements might undermine it and alarm us the most.

Next up, we discuss whether progress has been made on the Ukraine Peace Plan. Are we closer than we have ever been, or is peace still a distant prospect?

Finally, we continue the discussion on Venezuela. The U.S. has taken out more ships and begun seizing oil tankers. What does this escalation mean for the future of Venezuela and U.S. operations there?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 - The New US National Security Strategy
• 39:00 - Ukraine Peace Plan: Actual Progress or Not?
• 1:00:00 - Venezuela: Ramping Up to War?

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

The New US National Security Strategy

• National Security Strategy of the United States of America (The White House)
• The National Security Strategy: The Good, the Not So Great, and the Alarm Bells (CSIS)
• Trump’s Western Hemisphere Pivot Is Real (Foreign Policy)
• Trump Isn’t Interested in Fighting a New Cold War. He Wants a New Civilizational War. (NY Times)

Ukraine Peace Plan: Actual Progress or Not?

• America gives Ukraine reason to hope, just (The Economist)
• Russian’s Energy Achilles Heel (AEI)
• With Attacks on Oil Tankers, Ukraine Takes Aim at Russia’s War Financing (NY Times)

Venezuela: Enforcement of the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine

• Trump’s Claim That Venezuela ‘Stole’ U.S. Oil Fields Touches Nationalist Nerve (NY Times)
• Trump says Venezuela stole U.S. oil, land and assets. Here’s the history. (WaPo)

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President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reached a consensus on trade between the two countries. We discuss what each side gave up and who appears to be winning. Next, we address the possibility of a war with Venezuela and why all signs seem to be pointing to yes. Finally, Trump is going after Nigeria for a supposed slaughter of Christians in the country. We get after the truth of these claims and how Christians and Muslims co-exist in the country.

But first, the government shutdown. How is it affecting the everyday lives of Americans, including Anita, and when will it end…well, the next day apparently!

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 14:30 - Xi and Trump Meeting: Is there a trade deal?
• 27:30 - Looming War with Venezuela
• 54:00 Christian Persecution in Nigeria?

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Xi and Trump Meeting: Is there a trade deal?

• Why China is winning the trade war (The Economist)
• China Started Separating Its Economy From the West Years Ago (NY Times)

Looming War with Venezuela

• War looms in Venezuela as Trump tests an “Americas First” doctrine (The Economist)
• The Regime Change Temptation in Venezuela (Foreign Affairs)
• Trump Weighs Options, and Risks, for Attacks on Venezuela (NY Times)

Christian Persecution in Nigeria?

• A Fox News report prompted Trump to post about Nigeria, setting off White House scramble (NBC News)
• What to know as Nigeria rejects US military threat over alleged Christian killings (AP)
• Donald Trump says he may strike Nigeria to save Christians. Really? (The Economist)

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Trump and Netanyahu agreed to a Gaza Peace plan. How much should Trump be lauded for the deal and will Hamas sign on? Trump was also busy bailing out his friend, Argentina’s President Javier Milei, announcing a $20 billion bailout of the economy. Was this deal really necessary, and will it be enough to lift Argentina out of its economic woes? Finally, we discuss the growing popularity of far-right policies and the MAGA foreign policy supporting these groups. Plus, Ryan tries once again to convince Anita that aliens have visited Earth.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• UFO Update (US Congressional UAP Hearing on September 9th)
• Gaza Peace Plan: Trump Done Good?
• Argentina First, America Last?
• Illiberalism on the March in Western Europe

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

UFO Update (US Congressional UAP Hearing on September 9th)

• UAP US Congressional Hearing (Oversight Committee)

Gaza Peace Plan: Trump Done Good?

• Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan in full (BBC)
• The White House’s plan for Gaza deserves praise (The Economist)
• Tony Blair, Tapped by Trump for Gaza Plan, Brings Peace Expertise and Baggage (NY Times)

Argentina First, America Last?

• Why Is Trump Bailing Out Argentina? (Paul Krugman)
• Argentina’s finances just got even more surreal (The Economist)

Illiberalism on the March in Western Europe

• The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0 (Carnegie Europe)
• Trump’s Far Right Allies in Germany: Is History Repeating Itself? (The Rest is Politics Podcast)

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Trade has been a major issue for the Trump administration, and Anita recently spoke with William A Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on all aspects of this topic. They discuss what Americans really think about trade, tariffs and why they might be around to stay, why some of our trading partners are getting extensions, and the need to work with our allies to become less dependent on China.

Another major story in the headlines is the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly Trump’s meeting with both leaders. Ryan and Anita discuss the outcome of these meetings, their unusual nature, and the chances of peace.

We also explore potential U.S. military strikes into Latin America to go after cartels and the current situation in Iran.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - Russia-Ukraine War Peace Efforts
• 20:00 - US Planning Strikes on Latin American Drug Cartels?
• 44:00 - Iran after the 12-day War: Still a Threat?
• 53:00 - Interview with CSIS’s William A. Reinsch on Trump’s Trade policies

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Peace Efforts

• Putin’s “land swap” is really a grab for Ukraine’s fortress belt (The Economist)
• The Pernicious Spectacle of Trump’s Russia-Ukraine Diplomacy (Foreign Affairs)
• Security “guarantees” for Ukraine are dangerously hazy (The Economist)

US Planning Strikes on Latin American Drug Cartels?

• How US military action against drug cartels in Mexico could unfold (The Atlantic Council)
• Five Reasons Why Trump’s Anti-Cartel Military Plan Will Fail (WOLA)

Iran after the 12-day War: Still a Threat?

• Iran’s Dangerous Desperation (Foreign Affairs)
• As the Houthis sink two ships in one week, the world shrugs (The Economist)

Interview with CSIS’s William A. Reinsch on Trump’s Trade policies

• Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
• The Future of Global Trade- Without America (YouTube-Washington Monthly)

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We look at the current state of U.S. trade deals. Who has a deal? How many will get signed by August 1st? Will there be another extension? And what is their economic impact on the U.S.?

We then discuss the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which has recently turned deadly for the first time since 2011. What are they fighting about, and what are the political consequences for both countries?

Finally, we provide an update on the Russia-Ukraine war. We discuss the pressing questions as to: Which side seems to be making progress? How is U.S. policy evolving under Trump? And what does this foretell for the future of the conflict?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 - Liberation Day Redux: Trump Tariff Fallout Prediction
• 28:30 - Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict
• 39:40 - Russia-Ukraine War Update

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Liberation Day Redux: Trump Tariff Fallout Prediction

• Trump Tariffs: What’s the Latest on the Trade War? (NY Times)
• How America’s economy is dodging disaster (The Economist)
• Trump’s latest trade deals don’t make America stronger (WaPo)
• Likely extension for China talks reflect shift in tone, progress in finding a deal (Anita’s quote in TND)

Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict

• Thailand and Cambodia: The Battle for Preah Vihear (Stanford)
• What to Know About the Conflict Between Thailand and Cambodia (NY Times)
• The fractured friendship behind the fight at the Thailand-Cambodia border (BBC)

Russia-Ukraine War

• Trump’s U-turn on Russia is utterly cynical—and welcome (The Economist)
• Ukrainian drones are killing ever more soldiers (The Economist)
• How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back (War on the Rocks)

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In this episode, Anita speaks with Lt. Col. Alex Montgomery and Lt. Col. Shannon Waller about the Autonomous Systems and Robotics Industry and how these technologies are changing how wars are fought. They also share insights about the industry in South Korea and what the U.S. can learn from the Korean experience.

But first, Anita and Ryan discuss the latest events between Israel, the U.S., and Iran, in what Trump has dubbed the 12 day war. What did Israel and the U.S. accomplish with their airstrikes, and how will it affect Iran’s future?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 08:00 - The “12-Day” War (Iran and Israel conflict)
• 30:00 - Interview with Lt Col. Alex Montgomery and Lt. Col. Shannon Waller

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

12-Day War

• ‘The stars aligned’: Why Israel set out for a war against Iran, and what it achieved (The Times of Israel)
• How much did America’s bombs damage Iran’s nuclear programme? (The Economist)
• Did the Attacks on Iran Succeed? (Foreign Affairs)
• Has Donald Trump solved Iran from the air? (The Economist)

Interview with Lt. Col. Alex Montgomery and Lt. Col. Shannon Waller

• Background on NDU’s Industry Studies Program
• Shannon Waller Bio

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In this episode, Anita speaks with Daniel Markey, who is an expert on South Asia. They cover a host of issues, ranging from the India-Pakistan conflict, Pakistan’s relations with the U.S. and China, India as a potential replacement to China as a manufacturing hub, and India’s vision for a multipolar world. They also talk about the U.S. Institute of Peace on its importance to policy, particularly with regards to decreasing conflict, and what it means to be a non-partisan institution of Congress.

Events escalated between India and Pakistan after Anita’s interview with Dr. Markey, and we provide an update on the latest events and continue the discussion on the significance of this conflict.

We then cover Trump’s first overseas trip to the Middle East, where he announced big deals with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, announced the end of sanctions on Syria, and got OPEC to pump more oil. We also look into the current status of an Iran nuclear deal.

Plus Anita talks about her latest video game obsession, Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 from French developer, Sandfall Interactive.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:00 Interview with Daniel Markey (USIP & Stimson Center)
• 47:00 India and Pakistan Conflict in Kashmir
• 1:00:00 Trump’s Middle East Trip

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Interview with Daniel Markey

• Website
• X: @MarkeyDaniel
• Lessons Learned from Pakistan’s Use of Chinese Provided Weapons (War on the Rocks)

India-Pakistan Conflict in Kashmir

• China’s J-10C Fighter: Separating Myth From Reality (TWZ)
• A Timeline of Tensions Between India and Pakistan Over Kashmir (NY Times)
• Just how bad can the India-Pakistan crisis get? (Vox)

Trump’s Middle East Trip

• Trump resets America’s Middle East policy in surprising ways (The Economist)
• U.S., Iran Aim for Framework to Guide Talks Toward Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
• Trump’s decision to lift sanctions is a triumph for Syria’s president (The Economist)
• Why OPEC Plus Is Increasing Oil Supplies Despite Falling Prices (NY Times)

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In this episode, I spoke with Dr. Robert E. Kelly, who is a professor at the Pusan National University in South Korea. We talked about the recent impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, changes that we might see to the U.S. - South Korea alliance under Trump, and whether South Korea should develop its own nuclear weapons.

But first, Ryan and I talk about April 2nd's liberation day with its unprecedented increase of tariffs on all countries and its impact on both the U.S. and global economy.

We also discuss the U.S.’s apparent move to walk away from the Ukraine Peace deal and what that potentially means for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09:00 - The Fallout from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’
• 34:00 - US walking away from Ukraine Peace Deal?
• 49:00 - Interview with Prof. Robert E. Kelly (Pusan University)

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

The Fallout from Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’

• Xi Jinping’s Trump-sized puzzle (The Economist)
• Why Trump is losing his trade war with China (Vox)
• A flight from the dollar could wreck America’s finances (The Economist)

US walking away from Ukraine Peace Deal?

• Ukrainian Peace Plan Hints at Concessions, but Major Obstacles Remain (NY Times)
• Has Trump found a path to peace in Ukraine? (WaPo)
• Why Ukraine would rather fight on than give Crimea to Russia (The Time of London)

Interview with Prof. Robert E. Kelly (Pusan University)

• Website
• X: @Robert_E_Kelly
• Why South Korea Should Go Nuclear (Foreign Affairs)

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Ukraine has agreed to a U.S. cease-fire deal that resumed American aid and intelligence. How will the Trump administration get Russia on board with this proposal? Moving on to China, which recently held its annual National People’s Congress meeting, we discuss how the country is growing its global leadership by taking advantage of the U.S. withdrawal from the liberal international order. Finally, we look at the backlash to MAGA amongst U.S. allies and its effect on their domestic politics.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 - Anita’s new article in The Hill
• 07:45 - Russia-Ukraine: Is Trump a Betrayer of Ukraine or a Realist?
• 30:45 - China: Defender of the Post-War World Order?
• 1:00:00 - MAGA’s Toxic Brand Abroad: Domestic Politics of Canada and EU

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Anita’s article in The Hill:

• US aid cuts are expanding Chinese influence (The Hill)

Russia-Ukraine: Is Trump a Betrayer of Ukraine or a Realist Stud?

• Why John Mearsheimer Thinks Donald Trump is Right on Ukraine (The New Yorker)
• Ukraine Supports 30-Day Cease-Fire as U.S. Says It Will Resume Military Aid (NY Times)
• Ukraine Peace Is Not at Hand (WSJ)

China: Defender of the Post-War World Order?

• Five takeaways from Beijing’s largest annual political meetings (The Atlantic Council)
• The United States’ Illiberal Turn Recasts a Potential Deal with China (CSIS)

MAGA’s Toxic Brand Abroad: Domestic Politics of Canada and EU

• Canada is so furious at the US right now (Vox)
• The Global Populist Right Has a MAGA Problem (The Atlantic)
• Donald Trump has pushed Europe back into “whatever it takes” mode (The Economist)

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Trump’s plan to end the Russia - Ukraine war heated up with Wednesday’s call to Putin. With Ukraine and Europe sidelined from negotiations, can this administration bring about a lasting peace that both sides agree to? Also hot are Trump’s trade wars, which include a directive to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries. How practical is this plan, and what will it achieve? Finally, most U.S. foreign aid is frozen, and the agency that distributes much of that aid, USAID, is being dismantled. How will it affect U.S. national security?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09: 00 - Russia-Ukraine: Trump’s Perfect Phone Call Part II and the Munich Conference
• 24:00 - Looming Trade Wars
• 43:00 - US Soft Power Collapse: End of USAID and Foreign Aide

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine: Trump’s Perfect Phone Call Part II and the Munich Conference

• Trump’s call with Putin alarms Europe and shocks Ukraine (WaPo)
• The Day the Ukraine War Ended (The Atlantic)
• Ukraine’s fears are becoming reality, after Trump talks to Putin (The Economist)

Trade Wars Incoming

• Trump Says He’ll Rework Global Trading Relations With ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs (NY Times)
• ‘The W.T.O. Is Toast.’ What Happens to Global Trade Now. (NY Times)
• Donald Trump’s Super Bowl tariffs are an act of self-harm (The Economist)

US Soft Power Collapse: End of USAID and Freezing of all Foreign Aide

• Visualizing the international reach of U.S. funding cut by Trump (WaPo)
• Falsehoods Fuel the Right-Wing Crusade Against U.S.A.I.D. (NY Times)
• As USAID retreats, China pounces (Politico)

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President-elect Donald Trump recently made his own challenge to the liberal rules-based global order by articulating an expansionist U.S. foreign policy focused on regaining control of the Panama Canal, owning Greenland, and referring to Canada as the 51st state. We discuss the likelihood of such a foreign policy agenda and how seriously we should address Trump’s tendency towards blustering remarks. Then we review and grade the last four years of Biden’s foreign policy. Is the U.S. better or worse off than when he took office?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:00 - Trump’s Imperial Grab Bag: Panama Canal and Greenland
• 30:00 - Biden’s Foreign Policy Report Card

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Trump’s Imperial Grab Bag: Panama Canal and Greenland

• An American purchase of Greenland could be the deal of the century (The Economist)
• We Went to Greenland to Ask About a Trump Takeover (Politico)
• Why Does Trump Want the Panama Canal? Here’s What to Know. (NY Times)

Biden’s Foreign Policy Report Card

• The Interview: Antony Blinken Insists He and Biden Made the Right Calls (NY Times)
• Biden’s Legacy on China (The Diplomat)
• The Strange Triumph of a Broken America (Foreign Affairs)

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It has been an eventful week with the declaration of martial law in South Korea and the sudden collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria. We analyze both events and their impact on the United States. Additionally, we look at Donald Trump’s picks for key foreign policy positions and what they bode for the future.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09:20 South Korea’s Wild Week
• 29:00 Syria’s Assad Regime Collapses
• 52:00 Trump’s Foreign Policy Nominees

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

South Korea’s Wild Week

• Martial law in South Korea—and then not. What comes next? (The Economist)
• South Korean Leader’s Deal to Avoid Impeachment Risks Bigger Turmoil (NY Times)
• Political Turmoil Adds to South Korea’s Economic Woes (NY Times)

Syria’s Assad Regime Collapses

• Rebel advance in Syria threatens to unravel Putin’s previous triumph (NY Times)
• Who Are the Rebels Leading the Offensive in Syria? (NY Times)
• 10 days in Syria that shook the Middle East (Politico)

Trump’s Foreign Policy Nominees

• ‘The Evolution of Marco Rubio (NY Times)
• Mike Waltz wants America to focus on the threat from China (The Economist)
• Trump’s pick for China ambassador could be bad news for Beijing (Politico)
• Pete Hegseth’s Crusade to Turn the Military into a Christian Weapon (Politico)
• Military leaders are rattled by a list of ‘woke’ officers that a group urges Hegseth to fire (Politico)

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On this episode, we react to Donald Trump’s historic victory for the U.S. presidency and what it means for the world. Will Trump be able to end the Ukrainian war on day one? How will he pursue this goal? What will be his policy in the Middle East? How will he show strength towards China? And what does this election mean for NATO and other U.S. allies?

But first, is this the end of democracy as we know it in the U.S.?!

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:30 US Election and the Post-War World Order
• 36:00 Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan
• 52:00 Israel-Iran Conflict
• 1:01:00 China: Tariffs and Taiwan
• 1:23:00 Trump’s Foreign Policy Posse

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

US Election

• Welcome to Trump’s world (The Economist)
• The Long Global Trail of Resentment Behind Trump’s Resurrection (NY Times)

Trump’s Ukraine Peace Plan

• Why Volodymyr Zelensky may welcome Donald Trump’s victory (The Economist)
• The right way for Trump to play peacemaker (WaPo)

Israel-Iran Conflict

• Will Donald Trump “stop the wars” in the Middle East? (The Economist)
• Israel strikes hint at push to finish Middle East war before Trump term (The Times of London)

China: Tariffs and Taiwan

• Is the return of Donald Trump China’s dream or nightmare? (The Economist)

Trump’s Foreign Policy Posse

• ‘They Would Never Be Doing This Under Trump’: Two G.O.P. Foreign Policy Experts on What a Second Term Would Mean for the World (NY Times)

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This is a special 50th Episode recorded live with Pyotr Kurzin of the Global Gambit. The discussion was wide-ranging, including China's growing international influence, geopolitics at the UN, The Israel-Iran conflict, and the growing global demand for energy.

You can watch the video stream at: https://www.youtube.com/live/hFWcI2bri80?si=F_fmr_szagNJhwk-

While you are there, check out the Kellogg's Global Politics channel.

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**On this episode, we are delving into the foreign policy vision of Project 2025 and to what extent it previews what we can expect from a Trump administration. What will the world look like if we reshape our relations with competitors and allies? We discuss what the report says about our relationships with China, Ukraine, Iran, and Mexico. We also address how the culture wars influence foreign policy and explain their so-called fair trade agenda.

In our news brief, we cover the Ukraine Kursk Offensive into Russian territory and ponder the lack of Iranian retaliation for the Israeli assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah figures in Lebanon and Iran.

Topics Discussed in this Episode**

• 07:30 - Ukraine Kursk Offensive
• 11:45 - Why hasn’t Iran retaliated yet?
• 15:45 - Project 2025: Foreign Policy Breakdown

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ukraine Kursk Offensive

• What Ukraine’s Kursk incursion means for the war with Russia (WaPo)
• What the fall of Pokrovsk could mean for Ukraine (Euromaiden)

Why hasn’t Iran retaliated yet?

• Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why hasn’t it come? (LA Times)
• Why Iran Has Not Yet Retaliated Against Israel for Hamas Leader’s Killing (NY Times)

Project 2025: Foreign Policy Breakdown

• Check out the full plan here

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What a difference a month makes! The Democrats have a new Presidential nominee in Kamala Harris. But what are her views on Foreign Policy? We talk about the potential differences between her policies and those of the Biden Administration.

Also in this episode, Anita had the pleasure of speaking to Angela Stent, a senior non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution and Senior adviser to the U.S. Institute of Peace. We covered a range of topics, including how the U.S. elections might affect Putin’s execution of the Ukraine war, the current domestic situation in Russia, and Russia’s relationships with the large number of neutral countries that haven’t bought into the West’s story of the Ukraine war as an existential threat to democracy and the global order. We also discussed the far-right’s white nationalist dream of allying with Russia against China.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US Election Madness
• 18:00 - Kamala Harris Foreign Policy
• 39:00 - Interview with Angela Stent

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Kamala Harris Foreign Policy

• What a Kamala Harris foreign policy could look like (Politico)
• With Kamala Harris, U.S. Free Trade Skepticism May Continue (NY Times)
• Russia wary of U.S. and France election surprises, especially Kamala Harris (WaPo)
• How to decode Kamala Harris’s foreign policy (The Economist)

Interview with Angela Stent

• Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest
• Georgetown University (Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies)
• Brookings
• X|Twitter

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In this episode, I had the pleasure of speaking to Sameer Lalwani, a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace on India’s Foreign Policy. We touched on topics ranging from how India would likely respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to technological and defense cooperation between the U.S. and India. We also discussed the importance of the U.S.-India alliance with respect to strategic competition with China and the problematic nature of India’s relationship with Russia.

First, however, we react to last night’s televised Presidential Debate between President Biden and Former President Trump. Focusing on foreign policy topics, we cover what each side said and their potential impact on Americans and U.S. global standing.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 01:00 - US Presidential Debate Fallout
• 18:00 - Debating Foreign Policy
• 47:00 - Interview with Sameer Lalwani

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

US Presidential Debate Fallout

• Key Foreign-Policy Moments From the Trump-Biden Debate (FP)
• Joe Biden’s horrific debate performance casts his entire candidacy into doubt (The Economist)

Interview with Sameer Lalwani

• US Institute of Peace
• Personal Website
• X|Twitter

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**The past few weeks have seen several important elections in India, the EU, and Mexico. We discuss the impact in their respective regions and to the larger international environment.

We also discuss the latest in the EV battery wars. Is there a path forward for the U.S. to decrease dependence on China, and does it come at the cost of meeting U.S. environmental climate goals?**

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Ryan takes on Heritage’s Project 2025 Energy Policy
• 05:20 - Democracy Tested in India, the EU, and Mexico
• 50:30 - Winning the Battery War with China

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ryan’s op-ed article in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette

• The 'Trump Policy Bible' for America's energy future will undermine that future (Ryan Kellogg & David Brunnert)

Democracy Tested in India, the EU, and Mexico

• India Steps Back From the Brink (Foreign Affairs)
• Have European Voters Hamstrung the EU? (Foreign Affairs)
• In Calling Elections in France, Macron Makes a Huge Gamble (NY Times)
• Morena’s landslide win threatens to take Mexico down a dangerous path (The Economist)
• Mexico’s president says he won’t fight drug cartels on US orders, calls it a ‘Mexico First’ policy (AP)

Winning the Battery War with China

• How America Can Win the Coming Battery War (Foreign Affairs)
• Friendshoring the Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain: Final Assembly and End Uses (CSIS)
• How worrying is the rapid rise of Chinese science? (The Economist)

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**Anita has been traveling all month, and there are a lot of big stories that have happened in the meantime. We begin with China and the surprising passage of a ban on TikTok. We also discuss a provocative article arguing that we need to change our policy to win the war with China.

In the also surprising, but welcome category, an aide to Ukraine bill finally passed. What was behind Speaker Johnson’s change in position, and how will the aid change the situation on the ground?

Israel and Iran traded military hostilities and the war in Gaza still rages. What is the significance of the recent events? And what is happening on US campuses, where waves of protests and arrests have been occurring?**

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Anita’s Trip to Norway and Sweden
• 07:15 - TikTok Bill and the New Cold War with China
• 48:30 - Ukraine Aide Bill Passes, but What Next?
• 1:06:00 Israel-Iran Exchange Blows and Protests on US Campuses

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

TikTok Bill and New Cold War with China

• TikTok and the U.S. government dig in for a legal war over potential ban (WaPo)
• No Substitute for Victory (Foreign Affairs-Matt Pottinger & Mike Gallagher)

Ukraine Aide Bill Passes, but What Next?

• How Mike Johnson Got to ‘Yes’ on Aid to Ukraine (NY Times)
• America’s $61bn aid package buys Ukraine time (The Economist)
• Draft-dodging plagues Ukraine as Kyiv faces acute soldier shortage (Politico)

Israel-Iran Exchange Blows and Protests on US Campuses

• How Iran covered up the damage from Israel’s strikes (The Economist)
• How today’s antiwar protests stack up against major student movements in history (Vox)

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**On this episode, we begin with some short updates on the situation in Ukraine and Israel. We also discuss the US House vote on TikTok and whether the social media platform is a propaganda tool of the CCP.

We then take a deep dive into life in the UK after Brexit. Were promises kept and who is better off?

Finally, we look at the extraordinary story of Poland’s democratic revival and examine its battle back from its recent flirtation with authoritarianism. What lessons can Western nations learn from as they fight their own right-wing populism?**

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 20:00 - Ukraine and Israel update
• 40:00 - Post-Brexit UK: Looking back after 7 years
• 56:30 - Poland: How to fix a democracy?

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ukraine and Israel Updates

• Trump will not give a penny to Ukraine - Hungary PM Orban (BBC)
• Schumer Urges New Leadership in Israel, Calling Netanyahu an Obstacle to Peace (NY Times)
• Pentagon to give Ukraine $300 million in weapons (NPR)

Post-Brexit UK: Looking back after 7 years

• Brexit Britain has ‘significantly underperformed’ other advanced economies, Goldman Sachs says (CNBC)
• How Brexit and Boris Broke Britain (Foreign Affairs)
• Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll (The Guardian)
• Sir Keir Starmer: bureaucrat first, politician second (The Economist)

Poland: How to fix a democracy?

• Poland’s Post-Populist Rehab (Foreign Affairs)
• Donald Tusk tries to restore Poland’s rule of law (The Economist)
• Poland is a test case for reviving a corrupted democracy (The Washington Post)

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On this episode, we are talking about several big wins for Putin over the past week, including Navalyny’s demise, the opportunity to spread his propaganda to Western audiences through Tucker Carlson, and Russia’s solid economic growth.

**Another big win for Putin is Trump’s threats to withdraw from NATO by not respecting our treaty commitments were he to become the US’s next president.

The news keeps getting better for Putin with Ukraine’s struggles on the battlefield, while future military assistance continues to be blocked in the US Congress.

Finally, we look at the continuing conflict in Gaza, frustrating the White House and its hopes for a ceasefire that would see the release of the remaining hostages.**

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 10:00 - Putin’s very good week
• 38:50 - Ukraine's battlefield struggles
• 1:01:25 - Israel-Hamas Update

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Putin’s Very Good Week

• Carlson, like the populist right, dislikes what makes America great (WaPo)
• What Tucker Carlson Saw in Moscow (The Atlantic)
• Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death, explained (Vox)
• U.S. Fears Russia Might Put a Nuclear Weapon in Space (NY Times)
• Trump reiterates to NATO allies: If you don’t pay up, ‘I’m not going to protect you’ (Politico)

Ukraine Battlefield Struggles

• Avdiivka, Longtime Stronghold for Ukraine, Falls to Russians (NY Times)
• How Ukraine sank the Caesar Kunikov—and is beating Russia at sea (The Economist)
• Ukraine backers in House explore bypassing Johnson to secure more aid (WaPo)
• Top House Dems gauge support for forcing foreign aid vote (Politico)

Israel-Hamas update

• If Israel invades, hell looms in Rafah (The Economist)
• A Biden Doctrine for the Middle East Is Forming. And It’s Big. (Friedman, NY Times)

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Welcome to a New Year and a new season of Kellogg’s Global Politics!

**As funding for Ukraine has been held up by negotiations on the US Border Crisis, we take a deep dive into the recent history and the current status of immigration to the United States through its Southern border..

We then turn to the Middle East and concerns over the increase in military violence throughout the region and the implications of the escalating threat of war with Iran.**

Finally, we discuss the latest in East Asia and whether there might be an increased chance of war with North Korea. We also look at the implications of the recent Taiwanese presidential elections.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - US Border Crisis
• 32:30 - Middle East Spiraling Out of Control?
• 44:30 - North Korea Preparing for War?
• 54:30 - Taiwan’s Election

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

US Border Crisis

• With Deal Close on Border and Ukraine, Republican Rifts Threaten to Kill Both (NY Times)
• New York City’s not-so-sudden migrant surge, explained (Vox)
• Key findings about U.S. immigrants (Pew Research Center)

Middle East Spiraling Out of Control?

• Attacks in Syria and Iraq Ratchet Tensions in a Region Already on Edge (NY Times)
• The US and UK hit Houthi targets in Yemen. It probably won’t stop Red Sea attacks (Vox)
• The Middle East faces economic chaos (The Economist)

North Korea Preparing for War?

• As if We Didn’t Have Enough to Frighten Us … (NY Times)
• Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? (38 North)
• A Fundamental Shift or More of the Same? A Rebuttal (38 North)

Taiwan’s Election

• How China’s public views Taiwan’s elections (The Economist)
• Taiwan’s 2024 Elections: Results and Implications (CSIS)

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There have been several big stories since we last recorded. We begin with Ukraine and the fight over continued aid and military support in the U.S. Congress.

Then, tensions have been heating up between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. What does this mean for the U.S.? Tensions are also rising in South America over a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Will the U.S. need to intervene?

Right-wing populists made another gain with the election of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. As former residents of the country, we offer our perspective.

Finally, we made some foreign policy predictions for the year ahead.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 - Anti-Semitism or Anti-Zionism: Case Study at Montgomery County Public Schools
• 14:00 - Ukraine’s Very Bad Week
• 35:00 - China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea
• 42:00 - Venezuela claims most of Guyana
• 50:00 - The Rise of the Dutch Trump: Geert Wilders Wins Big
• 1:03:00 - Anita and Ryan’s 2024 Predictions

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Anti-Semitism or Anti-Zionism: Case Study at Montgomery County Public Schools

• Westland Middle teacher on leave, under investigation for social media posts (MoCo 360)

Ukraine’s Very Bad Week

• The High Price of Losing Ukraine (Institute for the Study of War)
• What happens in Ukraine if US aid disappears? (Vox)

China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea

• Fleets of Force (NY Times)
• Rising Philippines-China tensions in South China Sea: 5 moments from 2023 (WaPo)

Venezuela claims most of Guyana

• How the Venezuela-Guyana border almost started a U.S.-British war (WaPo)

The Rise of the Dutch Trump: Geert Wilders Wins Big

• Geert Wilders: the Dutch far-right figurehead sending a chill across Europe (The Guardian)
• How Geert Wilders Won (NY Times)

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**Recent headlines have been focused on the Xi-Biden meeting at APEC in San Francisco this week. We talk about what happened and the implications for the future of U.S.-China relations.

But first, we discuss the Israel-Hamas war, now in its sixth week of fighting. Can Israeli military actions achieve their objectives of destroying Hamas and recovering the more than 200 hostages? Are they doing enough to protect civilian lives in Gaza?**

Then we turn to the Russia - Ukraine war, which seems to have hit a stalemate. With the popularity of continued support from the West waning, where does the war go from here? What does “success” look like?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:50 - Israel-Hamas War
• 23:50 - Russia-Ukraine Stalemate
• 45:30 - Xi-Biden Meeting at APEC

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Israel-Hamas War

• The rights and wrongs of Israel and Hamas at al-Shifa hospital (The Economist)
• The Left Comes for Biden on Israel (The New Yorker)
• Many Arab governments would like to see Hamas gone (The Economist)
• What the War in Gaza Means for Saudi Arabia (Foreign Affairs)
• Iranians see both sides of the Israel-Gaza conflict (Financial Times)

Russia-Ukraine War: Stalemate, Rethinking Success, and Russia Resurgent?

• Redefining Success in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs)
• Why Ukraine’s Stalemate Will Likely Last Another Year (Time)
• Some Preliminary Thoughts on Ukraine’s Position in the War (War on the Rocks)

Xi-Biden Meeting at APEC

• The Biden-Xi Meeting: Did the White House Get More Than It Gave? (Foreign Policy)
• Joe Biden and Xi Jinping rediscover the joy of talking. Good (The Economist)
• ‘He’s a dictator’: Biden claims progress in Xi meeting, but deep fault lines remain (Politico)

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Last week, shortly before we recorded our episode, we woke up to the news of the Hamas attack on Israel. Very little was known at the time, and so we kept our reactions brief. We felt the need to go deeper into this significant conflict, however, and decided to record an episode just on the Israel-Hamas war. We hope this brings you greater insight into this terrible event in a very complicated region of the world.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Hamas Attack on Israel and Preparing for Gaza Invasion

• Israel Is Walking Into a Trap (The Atlantic)
• Israel Could Be Walking Into a Trap in Gaza (NY Times)
• Israel ordered a ‘complete siege’ of Gaza. Here’s what that looks like. (WaPo)
• The Meaning of the Attack on Israel (War on the Rocks)
• The Hamas horror is also a lesson on the price of populism (WaPo)

US Policy Options and a Vision after the War

• A war that must be waged with an eye toward what comes after (David Ignatius; WaPo)
• The Missed Chance for Peace (David Brooks; NY Times)
• Biden, Netanyahu and America’s choice (Financial Times)

Hezbollah, Iran, and China

• How to Avoid a Second Front Between Israel and Hiaballah (War on the Rocks)

• China’s soft message on Hamas is part of a much bigger strategy (Politico)

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On this episode, Anita interviews Dr. Carla Freeman, a senior expert on China at the United States Institute of Peace. They discuss a wide range of issues, including what has been accomplished through the flurry of high-level diplomatic talks between the U.S. and China and whether there will be a Biden-Xi meeting at APEC in California next month. They also talk about the importance of the U.N. and other global institutions in China’s strategy in the Global South and its challenge to the current international order.

We begin the episode with breaking news about the recent attack on Israel. Moving on to our main stories, we explore waning support for Ukraine in the U.S. and how it will affect the future of Russia-Ukraine war. Next, we discuss Indian nationalism in the wake of the diplomatic dispute between Canada and India. We then conclude with the interview with Carla Freeman.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - Hamas Surprise Attack on Israel
• 11:00 - Ukraine Funding and Support in Danger
• 32:00 - India’s Hindu Nationalism Goes Abroad
• 46:00 - Talking China with Dr. Carla Freeman

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Hamas Surprise Attack on Israel

• Analysis: In striking Israel, Hamas also took aim at Middle East security realignment (Reuters)

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine Funding and Support in Danger

• Western help for Ukraine is likely to diminish next year (The Economist)
• The ousting of Kevin McCarthy: bad for America, worse for Ukraine (The Economist)
• Commoditized Weapons in Ukraine: Are the Allies Getting the Procurement Right? (War on the Rocks)
• Foreign Policy Shutdown (Emma Ashford Substack)
• ‘It’s a survival issue’: Ukraine looks to arm itself as Western support slips (Politico)

India’s Hindu Nationalism Goes Abroad

• Sikh Separatism and the Brewing Conflict Between Canada and India (The New Yorker)
• Under fire from Hindu nationalist groups, U.S.-based scholars of South Asia worry about academic freedom (WaPo)
• An Anti-Muslim Symbol From India Is Paraded on Main Street, New Jersey (NY Times)

Talking China with Dr. Carla Freeman

• U.S. Institute of Peace
• Twitter/X (@CarlaP

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On this episode, we begin by exploring the future of the Wagner group given the death of its leader, Prighozin. We also look at the slow progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive and whether the conflict is headed towards a stalemate. Then, have we reached peak China? We discuss the causes and implications of China’s weakening economy. Finally, we explain what is so concerning about Republican Presidential hopeful, Vivek Ramaswamy’s foreign policy proposals.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 02:30 - Prigozhin’s Assassination and Ukraine’s Counteroffensive
• 27:30 - Is this peak China? China’s Economy in Crisis
• 50:30 - GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Foreign Policy

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?

• Prigozhin’s Real Legacy: The Mercenary Blueprint (Sean McFate (NDU); NY Times)
• A Brutal Path Forward, Village by Village (NY Times)
• Ukraine’s counter-offensive is speeding up (The Economist)
• The Case for Negotiating with Russia (The New Yorker)

Peak China is Real: China’s Economy in Crisis

• Is a declining China even more dangerous for the West? (The Times London)
• Xi’s Age of Stagnation (Foreign Affairs)
• The End of China’s Economic Miracle (Foreign Affairs)
• What Happened to Japan? (NY Times)
• Don’t Drive Smart Students Away (Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks article)

GOP candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s Foreign Policy

• A Viable Realism and Revival Doctrine (The American Conservative)
• The Sinister History Behind the Right’s Putin-Mania (Vanity Fair)
• Henry Kissinger Pushed Trump to Work With Russia to Box In China (Daily Beast)

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On this episode, we begin with an update on Ukraine’s counteroffensive and its slow but steady progress to take back territory from Russia. We then discuss the Niger coup, delving into what happened, the impact on US foreign policy, and the expansion of Wagner and Russian influence in Africa. Finally, we look at Israel’s democratic crisis with recent passing of legislation that limits judicial oversight of government power. We also consider the possibility of the U.S. brokering a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

But first, has the Earth been visited by aliens? And if so, why is the US the only country talking about it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 - Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!
• 19:30 - Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?
• 29:30 - Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa
• 43:15 - Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Congressional Hearing on UFOs: ‘Non-human’ biologics, Murder, and Interdimensional travel, oh my!

• Does the U.S. Government Want You to Believe in U.F.O.s? (Ross Douthat-NY Times)
• We are not alone: The UFO whistleblower speaks (News Nation)

Russia-Ukraine War: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Breakthrough?

• Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman on what Ukraine must do to break through Russian defences (The Economist)
• How bad will things get now that Russia has quit its grain deal with Ukraine? (Vox)

Niger coup and Russia’s growing influence in Africa

• What’s Behind the Coup in Niger? (NY Times)
• What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa? (Council on Foreign Relations)
• Why African leaders shunned Vladimir Putin’s summit (The Economist)

Israel in Crisis and Saudi-US Dealmaking

• The wounded Jewish psyche and the divided Israeli soul (Yossi Halevi- The Times of Israel)
• Biden Is Weighing a Big Middle East Deal (Thomas Friedman-NY Times)
• ‘Divorced from reality’: As top Biden aides meet MBS, experts see near term prospects for Israel-Saudi normalization, and a US Saudi security pact, as unlikely (Substack-Diplomatic by Laura Rozen)

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On this episode, Anita speaks with Daniel Hamilton, a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University SAIS. He is also the President of the Transatlantic Leadership Network and a former senior State Department official. We discuss the ups and downs of the Transatlantic Alliance and how the war in Ukraine and strategic competition with China affect the US’s relationship with Europe.

There have been several substantial developments in the Ukraine-Russia war. First, we discuss the Wagner rebellion and their march to Moscow, which was halted by a deal between Wagner leader Yevgeny Proghozin and Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko. Then, we catch up on the latest in Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia.

China is also in the news, with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s trip to the country, and we talk about what the US hopes to achieve with these talks. Finally, we discuss China’s announcement on limiting exports of metals critical to the manufacturing of semiconductor chips.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 06:00 - Russia-Ukraine: Wagner Mutiny, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, and Cluster Munitions
• 34:00 - China Strikes Back: Export limits on semiconductor inputs
• 48:00 - Interview with Daniel Hamilton on US-European relations around Ukraine War and China

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine: Wagner Mutiny, Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, and Cluster Munitions

• What just happened in Russia? The Wagner crisis, explained. (WaPo)
• Ukraine’s top general, Valery Zaluzhny, wants shells, planes and patience (WaPo)
• Where Will All the Wagner Group Mercenaries Go Now That Russia Has Exiled Their Leader? (RAND)
• The secret calendar of Russian rebel warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin revealed (The Business Insider)

China Strikes Back: Export limits on semiconductor inputs

• China Restricts Export of Chipmaking Metals in Clash With US (Bloomberg)
• China’s ‘first warning shot’ on export controls causes 27% jump in price of gallium—a metal vital to tech industries (Fortune)
• Yellen Says U.S. Doesn’t Seek ‘Winner Take All’ Fight With China (WSJ)

Interview with Daniel Hamilton on US-European relations around Ukraine War and China

• SAIS
• Transatlantic Relations
• Twitter: @DanSHamilton

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On this episode, I speak with Deborah Larson, a research professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. As a former student of hers, while undertaking my Ph.D. at UCLA, I found her research on Russia’s leaders very insightful. More recently, she has been writing about the China - Russia relationship, which we discuss. In particular, we look at what China gets from the relationship, how far it will go to support Russia in Ukraine, and how Russia avoids being the little brother in the strategic partnership.

We begin the episode delving into the most recent developments in the Russia - Ukraine war, including speculation on Ukraine’s future counteroffensive, the impact of the F-16s now being provided to Ukraine, and possible NATO membership.

El Salvador’s president has become the latest authoritarian-leaning darling of the Right in the US. We discuss why he has received so much praise from the likes of Tucker Carlson, Michael Flynn, and Roger Stone. Why is he so popular at home and abroad, and what are the consequences of the steady dismantling of democracy in the country?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:20 - Russia-Ukraine Update
• 32: 55 - The U.S. Right’s New Darling: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele
• 50:40 - Interview with Deborah Larson: Russia-China Relations

LIVE Twitter Space on June 11th at 1 pm EST

• Join us as we co-host a Twitter Space with The Global Gambit discussing all things foreign policy and international relations. Check our social media for the link to join,

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Ukraine’s Offensive and its Meaning for the War (Michael Koffman; War on the Rocks)
• Two Weeks at the Front in Ukraine (The New Yorker)
• To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now (Foreign Affairs)
• Why It’s Not a Good Idea for Ukraine to Join NATO Now (Slate)
• ‘Stream’ and ‘Torch’: the Gazprom-backed militias fighting in Ukraine (FT)

The U.S. Right’s New Darling: El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele

• Meet the MAGA movement’s new favorite autocrat (Vox)
• El Salvador’s authoritarian president is becoming a regional role model (The Economist)

Interview with Deborah Larson: Russia-China Relations

• Quest for Status: Chinese and Russian Foreign Policy

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On this episode, Anita interviews Dawn Murphy, an Associate Professor of National Security Strategy at the US National War College, specializing in research on China and the Global South. We talk about China’s Belt and Road Project, its relationships in the Middle East, and China’s use of multilateral organizations.

We begin the episode by discussing the recent Turkish elections, where hopes were high for the opposition to oust the autocratic President Erdogan. As the country heads to a runoff, what are the odds of the opposition succeeding?

Biden attended the G7 meeting in Japan but cut the rest of the trip short to deal with the debt crisis at home. What does this say about US commitments in the Pacific and the confidence of these nations in dealing with the United States?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 00:00 Anita takes on Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
• 04:00 Turkish elections
• 19:00 G7 Meeting in Hiroshima and US Debt Crisis Distraction
• 36:00 Interview with Dawn Murphy: China and the Global South

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Turkish Elections

• Four Takeaways From Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election (NY Times)
• Erdogan triumphed by vowing to Make Turkey Great Again (WaPo)
• Here’s How to Read Turkey’s Election Results—So Far (Council of Foreign Relations)

G7 Meeting and US Debt Crisis Distraction

• Can the West win over the rest of the world? (The Economist)
• The debt ceiling crisis is distracting Biden from his geopolitical agenda (Financial Times)
• To Counter China, G7 Countries Borrow Its Economic Playbook (NY Times)

Talking China in the Global South with Dawn Murphy

• National Defense University
• China’s Rise in the Global South
• Twitter (@DawnMurphyChina)

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On this episode, we begin with South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol’s 6-day state visit to the United States. South Koreans have become increasingly concerned about the nuclear threat from North Korea. We discuss if South Korea got the security guarantees they desired. We also look at other key issues in the US-South Korea relationship.

Fierce fighting in Sudan has been capturing headlines. But what are they fighting about? We go over the key actors, what is at stake, and why Americans should care about this conflict.

Finally, we introduce a new segment: Changing Tides, where we read a book, set of articles, or in today’s case, speeches that are either changing the world or reflecting on how the world is changing. Today, we discuss two recent foreign policy speeches by the Biden administration that were given in recent days. That of Janet Yellen on economic policy towards China and Jake Sullivan on Biden’s foreign policy for the middle class.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:50 - U.S.-South Korea Summit
• 30:45 - Crisis in Sudan
• 49:30 Changing Tides: Discussion of the Biden Administration’s "new" Washington Consensus and foreign policy for the middle class

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

U.S.-South Korea Summit

• South Korea has America in its face and China breathing down its neck (The Economist)
• America’s Ironclad Alliance With South Korea Is a Touch Rusty (Foreign Policy)
• After Warmth From Biden, South Korea’s Leader Faces a Different Tune at Home (NY Times)

Crisis in Sudan

• In Sudan, a power struggle between rival armed forces turns violent (Vox)
• What’s behind the fighting in Sudan, and what is at stake? (WaPo)
• United States Says Wagner Has Quietly Picked Sides in Sudan (NY Times)

Changing Tides: Discussing the ‘new’ Washington Consensus and "foreign policy for the middle class"

• Jake Sullivan’s Talk at the Brookings Institution
• Janet Yellon’s Talk at Johns Hopkins SAIS

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On this episode, Anita speaks with Bates Gill, the Executive Director of the Center for China Analysis with the Asia Society Policy Institute. We discuss the troubling aspects of China’s military modernization, the rise of military-industrial technocrats to leadership positions in the Communist Party, and the importance of understanding China from the inside out.

We begin the show with an update on the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing on the recent intelligence leaks. We also consider whether there are limits in the West’s support to the Ukrainian war effort.

China is not the only country talking about a multipolar world. We discuss Macron’s infamous trip to China and his attempt to carve out a unique foreign policy agenda for Europe while setting himself up to be a distinguished statesman. Brazil’s president, Lulu, also visited with Xi this week with proposals for a closer relationship with China and restoration of the BRICS power bloc of developing nations.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 04:30 Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations
• 32:00 Macron and Lulu meet with Xi
• 54:00 Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: DoD leak revelations

• The West Needs a New Strategy in Ukraine (Foreign Affairs-Haas and Kupchan)
• Russia’s commando units gutted by Ukraine war, U.S. leak shows (WaPo)
• A Quick Guide to What the Leaked U.S. Intelligence Documents Say (NY Times)

Macron and Lulu meet with Xi

• From Red Carpet to Doghouse: Macron Returns From China to Allied Dismay (NY Times)
• Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ says Macron (Politico)
• Emmanuel Macron’s blunder over Taiwan (The Economist)
• French Diplomacy Undercuts U.S. Efforts to Rein China In (NY Times)
• Brazil’s foreign policy is hyperactive, ambitious and naive (The Economist)

Interview with Dr. Bates Gill from the Asia Society Policy Institute

• Asia Society Policy Institute
• Twitter (@batesgill1)
• Daring to Struggle: China's Global Ambitions Under Xi Jinping

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On this episode, we begin by discussing China’s diplomatic blitz, having brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomacy and Xi’s visit to Russia to meet with Putin and promote its 12-point peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine war.

We move on to the elections in Africa’s largest democracy, Nigeria, and what the controversial elections say about the state of democracy in the country.

Finally, we look to the world’s largest democracy, India, and consider the steady rise of authoritarianism there.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 08:30 - China’s Global Diplomacy Blitz
• 27:00 - Nigerian Elections
• 41:00 India’s BJP and Modi Eroding Democracy

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

China’s Global Diplomacy Blitz

• Israel sees opportunity in Iran-Saudi deal, Israeli official says (Axios)
• Great power projection in the Middle East: The China-Russia relationship as a force multiplier (The Atlantic Council)
• What Does Xi’s Visit to Russia Mean for the World? (Foreign Policy)
• China's rise giveth and China's rise taketh away (Dan Drezner)

Nigerian Elections

• Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s political kingmaker, wins a flawed election (The Economist)
• Nigeria points the way toward democracy in a region in which it is scarce (WaPo)
• Nigeria desperately needs a new kind of leadership (The Economist)

India’s BJP and Modi Eroding Democracy

• India’s ruling party just kicked a major rival out of Parliament — and sparked a new crisis (Vox)
• Top Indian Opposition Leader Arrested on Corruption Charges (NY Times)
• Manish Sisodia's arrest: Read how the Delhi liquor scam unfolded (The Economic Times)
• India’s BJP Is the World’s Most Important Party (WSJ)

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On this episode, Anita speaks with David Maxwell, a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel, a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, and a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation. We talk about the various ways North Korea presents a national security threat to the United States that goes beyond its nuclear weapons program. We also discuss resetting the goal to place unification with South Korea first led by an informational warfare campaign and then denuclearization rather than the current policy of denuclearization before unification. Dave warns that the U.S. and our partners need to be prepared for a period of violent instability if the Kim regime loses its iron grip on North Korean leadership.

We begin the show by marking the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war. We discuss the remarkable unity of the West, while the rest of the world has largely opted for neutrality—of which many of these countries are helping Russia’s economy survive. We look at the historical reasons the West has less influence on the Global South than it often presumes. Finally, we cover China’s 12-point plan for peace and whether China or India might have a role as neutral arbiters of peace.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• [03:40] Russia-Ukraine 1-year Later: Global South is Not on Board
• [27:25] China’s Peace Plan: Self-serving Ploy or Useful Framework?
• [36:15] Talking North Korea with David Maxwell

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine 1-year Later: Global South is Not on Board

• A global divide on the Ukraine war is deepening (WaPo)
• The West Tried to Isolate Russia. It Didn’t Work. (NY Times)

China’s Peace Plan: Self-serving Ploy or Useful Framework?

• China calls for a cease-fire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine (NPR)
• RAND’s Derek Grossman’s tweet on India as Russia-Ukraine peacemaker (Twitter)
• Zelenskyy open to considering some parts of Beijing’s proposals to end Ukraine war (Politico)

Interview with David Maxwell

• Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• Foreign Policy Research Institute
• Twitter (@DavidMaxwell161)
• War on the Rocks

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On this episode, Anita speaks with Bonnie Glaser, who is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific program. Our conversation is all about China as we discuss spy balloons, Taiwan, and the conditions that might spark China to risk war with the United States.

We begin the show with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war. Ryan explains the conspiracy theory that posits that the US critically damaged the Nord Stream pipeline that brought gas from Russia into Germany.

The current head of the World Bank unexpectedly resigned this week. We explain why he is leaving and why it matters. We also discuss the mission of the World Bank and why many want to have it have a larger role in addressing the issue of climate change in developing countries.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 05:00: Russia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream Allegations
• 32:30: World Bank: Politics and Climate Change
• 48:00: Interview with Bonnie Glaser

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update: Russian Offensive and Nord Stream Allegations

• Moscow’s Military Capabilities Are in Question After Failed Battle for Ukrainian City (NY Times)
• How the War in Ukraine Ends (The New Yorker)
• Nord Stream, Seymour Hersh and how disinformation works (Natalia Antelava)
• Our tweet thread debunking Hersh article on Nord Stream allegations

World Bank: Politics and Climate Change

• The World Bank: What it is and how it operates (Bretton Woods project)
• World Bank head denies climate controversy spurred resignation (WaPo)
• Malpass survives climate gaffe, but the World Bank’s fossil fuel policy may not (Politico)

Interview with Bonnie Glaser

• German Marshall Fund
• Twitter (@BonnieGlaser)
• China Global Podcast
• U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China's Challenge Lead to a Crisis?

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We begin with the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine War and how Russia’s sheer numbers in manpower might help it regain momentum. We also discuss the debate over whether the US should support a Ukrainian offense in Crimea and why Western sanctions on Russia have had an underwhelming effect on the Russian economy and its ability to wage war.

One of the biggest stories in the US this week was the discovery of a Chinese surveillance balloon. We discuss this and the news of the US expanding its military presence in the Philippines. We wrap up by talking about US hopes to divert its supply chains from China to its allies.

Finally, we cover the latest Israeli strike on Iran and how Israel - Iran relations are likely to fare under the new Netanyahu administration.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• [06:30] Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game
• [33:30] Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia
• [57:30] Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update: Sanction Failures and Crimea End Game

• Ukraine Fears New Offensive Is Underway as Russia Masses Troops (NY Times)
• Russian Crude Trade Moves Deep Into the Shadows (Energy Intel)
• Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends (NY Times)
• What Ukraine Needs to Liberate Crimea (Foreign Affairs- Alexander Vindman)
• The Case for Caution on Crimea (War on the Rocks- James Acton)

Chinese Balloon Drama and US Alliance Building in Asia

• Chinese Spy Balloon or ‘Civilian Device’? (NY Times)
• China’s suspected spy balloon is the perfect symbol of its clumsiness (WaPo)
• Biden Aims to Deter China With Greater U.S. Military Presence in Philippines (NY Times)
• U.S. Pursues India as a Supply-Chain Alternative to China (WSJ)

Israel Strikes Iran and the Prospects for War

• The U.S.-Israel military simulation is a show of force to Iran (WaPo)
• Iran blames Israel for Isfahan drone attack, warning of revenge (BBC)

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On this episode, Anita spoke with Jonathan Fulton, a Professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. We discussed China’s relationships in the Middle East and how they go beyond seeing the region as a source of cheap oil.

We also talk about the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the flow of Western military equipment into Ukraine and Germany’s refusal to provide its Leopard 2 tanks. We also discuss why Putin is losing the energy war with Europe.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Africa this week. We explain why she is there and what the US hopes to achieve. We consider the trip in light of Russia’s and China’s recent diplomatic tours of the region.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine Update: Tanks, tanks, and more tanks - 4:35
• Janet Yellen goes to Africa - 21:00
• Interview with Jonathan Fulton - 45:15

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War Update: Tanks, tanks, and more tanks

• German caution on Ukraine arms rooted in political culture (AP)
• A helicopter crash has dealt a heavy blow to Ukraine’s government (The Economist)
• Twitter thread on M1-Abrams by Gen. Mark Hertling (Twitter)
• Vladimir Putin is losing the energy war (FT)

Janet Yellen goes to Africa

• Yellen's message in Africa: We're here to stay (Axios)
• Why US-Africa relations — and Africa — matter now more than ever (The Hill)
• The Chinese-African relationship is important to both sides, but also unbalanced (The Economist)

Interview with Jonathan Fulton

• China-MENA Podcast (Atlantic Council)
• Twitter @johnanfulton
• China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies

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On this episode, as we begin to record, we find out the breaking news about Pro-Bolsonaro’s supporters breaking into government buildings, including the Supreme Court, the Presidential Palace, and Congress, in a clear echo of the US’s January 6th.

We continue our conversation on the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the significance of the continuing battle for Bakmut, increasing Western military aid and support, and some good news for Europe’s energy crisis.

Then we are onto the main story, the Republican takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives and the implications for US Foreign Policy. We discuss the new select committee on China, the promised hearings on the Afghanistan withdrawal, and, last and least, Hunter Biden.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• January 8th insurrection in Brazil
• Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks Article
• Russia-Ukraine War Update
• Republican Takeover of the U.S. House and the Foreign Policy Implications
  • Plus an overview of the dirty deeds of the Biden crime family overseas ;-).

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ryan and Anita’s War on the Rocks Article

• Don’t Drive Away Smart Students (War on the Rocks)

Russia-Ukraine War Update

• Russia's Completely Avoidable "Shell Hunger" in Ukraine (Edward Slavsquat)
• Lagging Arms Production Makes Pentagon Wary of Further Industry Consolidation (WSJ)
• A Russian warlord’s savagery is sending a loud message to Moscow (The Economist)
• Europe’s energy prices slump. Just not on your bill. (Politico)

Republican Takeover of US House and the Foreign Policy Implications

• New House Select Committee seeks 'Cold War' victory over China (Politico)
• Rep. Mike Gallagher's committee will push back against China (NPR)
• Exclusive: GOP launches probe into handling of Afghanistan withdrawal (Axios)
• What are the allegations against Hunter Biden? (The Economist)

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Today we are celebrating an important milestone for the podcast: our 25th episode. We thank all of our listeners for their support and hope that you continue to enjoy the show.

On this episode, Anita talks with Emma Ashford, a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. We talk about her new book: Oil, the State, and War: The foreign policies of petrostates. She explains how categorizing the different types of petrostates helps better understand oil’s relationship to violent conflict. We also discuss Russia as a petrostate and the war in Ukraine. We conclude with an assessment of the Biden administration’s National Security Strategy and whether it represents more of the same or a new vision for the future.

We also look back at 2022 and talk about how the two biggest stories of the year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the complete shift to viewing China as a security threat, have changed the world.
Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 2022 Lookback: Russia-Ukraine War - 06:00
• 2022 Lookback: New Cold War with China - 18:30
• Interview with Emma Ashford - 55:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

2022 Lookback: Russia-Ukraine War

• Zelensky Tells Congress ‘You Can Speed Up Our Victory’ (NY Times)
• A whole new global energy system is emerging (The Economist)

2022 Lookback: New Cold War with China

• 5 Things U.S. Policymakers Must Understand About China-Africa Relations (American Progress)
• The response to debt distress in Africa and the role of China (Chatham House)
• Will Biden’s Trade Policy Shift After the Midterms? (CFR)

Interview with Emma Ashford, The Stimson Center

• Stimson Center
• Oil, the State, and War: The Foreign Policies of Petrostates
• Twitter

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In this episode, Anita talks with Jason Hsu, chairman and CIO of Rayliant Global Advisors (RGA), a global investment management group that specializes in the Chinese market. We discuss the tradeoffs between investing in China and preserving the national security of Americans. Jason also shares his views on why he believes the U.S. will continue to out-innovate China.

We also cover the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war, including the Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military bases and the start of the G7 sanctions on Russian oil. Next, we discuss the massive protests in China and the government’s rollback of its zero Covid policy. Finally, there were two coup attempts this week; one in Peru and one in Germany. We talk about what this means for these two countries.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Joseph Asunka’s article in the Washington Post - 04:50
• Russia-Ukraine Update - 06:00
• Chinese protests and the end of the Zero Covid policy - 21:00
• This Week in Feckless Coups: Peru and Germany - 34:00
• Interview with Jason Hsu - 46:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Joseph Asunka and the Afrobarometer

• What do Africans want? Afrobarometer surveys reveal the top concerns (WaPo)
• Our Interview with Joseph

Russia-Ukraine Update

• ‘Hell. Just hell’: Ukraine and Russia’s war of attrition over Bakhmut (FT)
• Russia-Iran military partnership ‘unprecedented’ and growing, officials say (WaPo)
• Russia’s using ‘dark’ tankers to evade Western oil sanctions (WaPo)

Chinese protests and the end of the Zero Covid policy

• After Deadly Blaze, Surge of Defiance Against China’s Covid Policies (NY Times)
• China is dismantling its zero-covid machine (The Economist)

This Week in Feckless Coups: Peru and Germany

• The bizarre far-right coup attempt in Germany, explained by an expert (Vox)
• Peru’s President Tried to Dissolve Congress. By Day’s End, He Was Arrested. (NY Times)

Interview with Jason Hsu, Rayliant Global Advisors

• Rayliant Global Advisors website
• Twitter

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In this episode, Anita talks with Sarah Bauerle Danzman of Indiana University, Bloomington. We discuss the Biden administration’s latest actions on preventing the transfer of intellectual property to China and creating high-paying union jobs at home.

We also dive into the latest on the Russia-Ukraine war and the missile that crossed into Poland, killing two people. Finally, we discuss the rise of the far right in Israel and what we can expect from Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine Update - 04:30
• Israeli Election and the return of Netanyahu - 17:30
• Interview with Dr. Sarah Brauerle-Danzman - 33:30

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine Update

• How an anonymous source raised false alarm of Russian strike on Poland (WaPo)
• Can Ukraine’s infrastructure survive the winter? (Vox)
• ‘Gross sabotage’: traces of explosives found at sites of Nord Stream gas leaks (The Guardian)

Israeli Election and the return of Netanyahu

• Israel’s centrists should back Binyamin Netanyahu (The Economist)
• The Far Right Rises in Israel (NYT The Daily)
• A Netanyahu government may raise the temperature in a boiling West Bank (The Economist)
• Israel must not let election results undermine foreign policy (Jerusalem Post)

Interview with Dr. Sarah Bauerle-Danzman

• Dr. Bauerle-Danzman’s website
• Merging Interests When Domestic Firms Shape FDI Policy
• Twitter

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In this episode, Anita interviews renowned China expert Dr. Shaun Breslin of Warwick University. We discuss the worrisome aspects of Xi’s consolidation of power. We also consider whether some of the rhetoric that perceives all Chinese activities as being a national security threat has gone too far.

**We begin the episode by assessing the surprising midterm results and what they suggest for the future of U.S. foreign policy. Then we move on to the first in-person meeting between Biden and Xi as national heads of state. Can they find areas to cooperate on? Finally, in a significant blow for Russia, Russia ordered a retreat from the city of Kherson, the strategically important provincial capital of Ukraine. We discuss the significance of this event and the possibility of a negotiated end to the conflict.

Topics Discussed in this Episode**

• Impact of U.S. Midterm Elections
• Biden-Xi Meeting at the G20
• Russia-Ukraine Update
• Interview with Dr. Shaun Breslin

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Impact of U.S. Midterm Elections

• After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger (The Economist)
• Tough Lines on Ukraine and China: Seeing Policy Fallout From U.S. Election (NY Times)
• Potentially divided U.S. Congress to remain united on at least one issue: China (The Japan Times)

Biden-Xi Meeting at G20

• For Biden and Xi, a Long Relationship With Rising Mutual Suspicion (NY Times)
• China wants to mend ties with the U.S. But it won’t make the first move. (WaPo)
• Can Joe Biden and Xi Jinping stabilise Sino-American relations? (The Economist)

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Top U.S. General Urges Diplomacy in Ukraine While Biden Advisers Resist (NY Times)
• Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat (NY Times)
• The Ukraine War Will End With Negotiations (Foreign Affairs)

Interview with Dr. Shaun Breslin

• Dr. Breslin’s website
• China Risen?: Studying Chinese Global Power

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In this episode, we report on China’s 20th Party Congress, where Xi further consolidated his power. We also consider whether the U.S. is going down the right path with its own Industrial Policy to counter China. As usual, there is a lot on the Russia-Ukraine front, including Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s electrical grid.

We then turn to Iran to discuss the resilience of their ongoing protests. The U.K. has a new Prime Minister. Will he bring stability to the politics there, and is that enough? Finally, Brazilians went to the polls last Sunday to vote for their next President, and we cover what you need to know about this election.CORRECTION: The author of the twitter thread on negotiating with Putin was attributed to Dan Nexon, but was actually @ProfPaulPoast.

China - 00:04:00
Russia-Ukraine - 00:47:00
Iran - 01:05:00
UK - 01:09:00
Brazil - 01:15:00

Some of the Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

China’s 20th Party Congress: Takeaways and Implications

• Xi Jinping Has Fallen Into the Dictator Trap (NY Times- Susan Shirk)
• For Xi Jinping, loyalty trumps ability (The Economist)

Economic War with China and Industrial Mobilization: Are we taking the wrong approach?

• China is weaker than we thought. Will we change our policies accordingly? (Fareed Zakaria- WaPo)
• The risks of Bidenomics go beyond inflation (The Economist)

Russia-Ukraine Update

• Russia’s destroying infrastructure in Ukraine, and the consequences are dire (Vox)
• Prices are down. Supplies are good. Europe’s gas crisis gets a reprieve. (WaPo)

UK Leadership Shuffle

• Rishi Sunak’s promise of stability is a low bar for Britain (The Economist)

Brazil Election: Final Round

• Brazil’s election is tight ahead of a run-off on October 30th (The Economist)

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Putin's Birthday Gifts and Economic War with China

In this episode, we discuss Russia’s growing losses in Ukraine, signs of dissent from Russian elites, and intrigue in global energy markets. We move on to East Asia, where North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is vying for attention with a missile launch over Japan. We also discuss Biden’s new economic war with China, particularly in light of the recent moves to ban the selling of semiconductor chips to Chinese companies.

NOTE: We did not get to the updates on Iranian protests and the presidential election in Brazil, so if you are interested in the topics, stay tuned for the next episode.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Putin’s Birthday present and latest developments in Ukraine - 6:30
• Energy Intrigue: Nord Stream sabotage and OPEC’s snub - 32:00
• North Korean Missile test - 47:30
• Growing Economic War with China - 59:45

Putin’s Birthday present and latest developments in Ukraine

• Amid Ukrainian taunts, Russia scrambles to salvage Crimean Bridge after fiery explosion (WaPo)
• ‘Someone will fall victim’: insiders reveal elite anguish as Russia’s war falters (The Guardian)
• Elon Musk’s foray into geopolitics has Ukraine worried (The Economist)

Energy Intrigue: Nord Stream sabotage and OPEC’s snub

• Permanent Rupture: The European-Russian Energy Relationship Ended with Nord Stream (War on the Rocks)
• Biden's 'unthinkable' options for punishing OPEC (Poltico)

North Korea Missile test

• North Korea Fires Powerful Missile, Using Old Playbook in a New World (NY Times)
• U.S. Targets Businessmen and Companies in New North Korea Sanctions (NY Times)

Growing Economic War with China

• Chip bans on countries like China will hurt the U.S. more than they’ll help. They won’t even work (Fortune)
• Lawmakers push new compromise for screening American investments in China (Politico)
• US intensifies assault on China’s chip ambitions (Nikkei)

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In this episode, we discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, in particular Russia’s mobilization of an additional 300,000 troops from a partial draft. Putin has also revived his nuclear weapons threats. We explain why we should take them seriously.

Britain has a new Prime Minister who has proposed a very controversial budget that combines tax cuts with increased government spending. We discuss this issue in the context of Britain’s long-term economic decline.

Finally, this week has seen widespread protests throughout Iran. We explain the cause and significance of these protests, as well as the latest status on a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Anita’s trip to the American Political Science Association (APSA) Conference
• Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat - 07:00
• UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction - 27:00
• Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update - 50:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Russian Mobilization and the Nuclear Threat

• Putin’s Draft Draws Resistance in Russia’s Far-Flung Regions (NY Times)
• Memo to the President (The Atlantic Council)
• Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy (War on the Rocks)

UK Budget and the Market’s Reaction

• What kind of prime minister will Liz Truss be? (The Economist)
• Britain’s chancellor offers up a reckless budget, fiscally and politically (The Economist)
• Pound plummets to 37-year low as Kwarteng unveils ‘growth plan’ for UK economy (Independent)

Iranian Protests and Nuclear Deal Update

• What’s behind the protests in Iran? (WaPo)
• The Supreme Leader is Still Alive, but When he dies how will his succession play out? (The Atlantic Council)
• Let’s Be Honest About the Iran Nuclear Deal (Foreign Policy)

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On this episode, we discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war. After two months of the front lines unchanged, Ukraine has begun its first counter-offensive to recapture the city of Kherson, which would isolate Russian troops in the South. We also consider the meaning of the G-7 agreement on a price cap on Russian oil and more on Europe’s struggles to deal with its ongoing energy crisis.

Brazil’s presidential election will be held in October, but there are reasons to be concerned about a military coup as the current president, Bolsonaro, borrows from Trump’s playbook by questioning the integrity of the voting machines. Finally, we look at how the latest violence in Iraq may lead to a civil war.

**Ryan and Anita also share the latest on their own research projects on energy security and China’s asymmetrical trading relationships.

Topics:**Ryan's Research on Energy Security - 08:25
Anita's Research on Chinese bullying - 18:10
Ukraine and EU Energy Crisis - 34:50
Brazil's Presidential Elections - 51:40
Iraq's Descent Into Civil War - 01:01:00

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Kherson Counteroffensive and EU Energy Crisis

• Why does Kherson matter? (The Economist)
• The Right Way to Sanction Russian Energy (Foreign Affairs)
• Europe scrambles to protect consumers against dizzying energy prices (The Economist)

Election Roundup: Brazil

• Lula vs Bolsonaro: What is at stake in Brazil’s presidential election? (The New Statesman)
• The Imminent Election Crisis in Brazil (Americas Quarterly)

Iraq Civil War?

• Why Iraq could be approaching another civil war, explained by an expert (Vox)
• Timeline: What led to the fighting in Iraq’s capital Baghdad (Al Jazeera)
• How Inter-Shia Strife Is Threatening Iraqi Security (Council of Foreign Relations)

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In this episode, Anita interviews Joseph Asunka, the CEO of Afrobarometer, about democracy in Africa. Afrobarometer is “a pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that has been conducting public attitude surveys on democracy, governance, the economy, and society since 1999.” Before joining Afrobarometer, Asunka was previously a program officer in the Global Development and Population program at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and a lecturer in political science at UCLA.

We also discuss the aftermath of Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan and whether it has led to a new normal in the Taiwan Strait. We look at the specter of populism in Italy, as well as Kenya’s third democratic election and what it portends for the future of East Africa. We wrap up the show by looking at the non-aligned movement and why these countries refuse to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Ryan’s article in War on the Rocks

• Reviving the Petroleum Administration for War: A Case for Government-Industry Partnership (War on the Rocks)

Rising US-China tensions over Taiwan

• Xi Jinping may attack Taiwan to secure his legacy, warn Admiral Lee Hsi-min and Eric Lee (The Economist)
• How the crisis over Taiwan will change US-China relations (The Economist)
• Analysis: China's sharper focus on military option for Taiwan raises risks with U.S. (Reuters)

Election Roundup: Italy and Kenya

• Can anything stop Italy’s radical right? (The Economist)
• Leaked manifesto: Italian right-wingers will dump Euroskepticism in bid for power (Politico)
• Italy's Meloni, leading in polls, says she is no threat (Reuters)
• Why Kenya’s election is going down to the wire (The Economist)

Democracy in Africa: Interview with Joseph Asunka

• How do Global South politics of non-alignment and solidarity explain South Africa’s position on Ukraine? (Brookings)

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In this episode, we interview Sir Mark Lowcock, the former United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the possibility of the world’s second famine in the 21st century. We discuss the factors driving the current food crisis and what steps nations can take now to avoid millions of people starving by next year. Lowcock is currently a Visiting Professor in Practice at the Department of International Development at the London School of Economics and a Distinguished Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC. He is the author of Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times.

We then discuss all the developments from the last week with China: the Biden-Xi call, Pelosi’s potential trip to Taiwan, and the passage of the CHIPs Act in Congress. We discuss the significance of these events and what they mean for US relations with China.

Also, on the show, we talk about Europe’s energy crisis and the latest developments as the continent struggles to prepare for winter.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• US-China Relations - 04:00
• European Energy Crisis - 29:00
• Interview with Sir Mark Lowcock - 41:50

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

US-China Relations

• Cooperation with China: Challenges and opportunities (The Atlantic Council)
• What Does the Pelosi Taiwan Uproar Mean for U.S. China Policy? (Foreign Policy)
• What Is the U.S. “One China” Policy, and Why Does it Matter? (CSIS)
• America takes on China with a giant microchips bill (The Economist)

European Energy Crisis: Winter is Coming Part Deux

• Europe’s gas crisis is here (Vox)
• Europe’s Race to Secure New Energy Sources Is on a Knife’s Edge (NYT)
• France’s nuclear plants are going down for repairs (The Economist)
• What Are the Kremlin’s Calculations in Its Gas War With Europe? (Carnegie Foundation)

Interview with Sir Mark Lowcock

• Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times
• What’s in the Ukraine Grain Deal for Russia? (Carnegie Foundation)

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Episode Summary

In this episode, we talk with Alexander Vindman, a colleague of Anita’s at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins (SAIS), about the Russia-Ukraine War and the potential end game. Vindman’s expertise on Russia and Ukraine military affairs has been featured in numerous media outlets, as well as his articles published in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and The Washington Post. His book, Here, Right Matters: An American Story, details his pivotal role in the first impeachment of President Donald J. Trump in 2020.

Also, on the show, we discuss Biden’s recent trip to the Middle East, where energy politics was at the top of the agenda, and the assassination of Japan’s former Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, which set off shockwaves in Japan and throughout the world. We discuss Abe’s legacy as a statesman in Asia and the controversies during his term in addressing Japan’s imperial past.

Additionally, Anita shares some good news about her new job.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Biden’s Middle East Tour - 05:00
• Legacy of Shinzo Abe - 39:40
• Russia-Ukraine War End game: Interview with Alexander Vindman - 54:30

Articles and Resources Mentioned in Episode

Biden’s Middle East Tour

• Israeli Security Officials Are Divided Over Iran Nuclear Deal (NYT)
• Israel’s unexpected military alliance in the Gulf (The Economist)
• What Biden Got Right on His Trip to the Middle East (NYT)
• Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation (Reuters)
• How Biden Can Reverse China’s Gains in Saudi Arabia (Foreign Policy)

Legacy of Shinzo Abe

• Abe Shinzo left his mark on Asia and the world, not just Japan (The Economist)
• Abe’s Nationalism Is His Most Toxic Legacy (Foreign Policy)
• Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia (Foreign Policy)

Interview with Alexander Vindman

• The Day After Russia Attacks (Foreign Affairs)
• Here Right Matters: An American Story

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The highest inflation rate in 40 years led to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by 75 basis points last week, signaling a much higher chance of a recession in the US this year. With global stock markets tanking and consumers beginning to pull back spending, we ask, was the EU decision to sanction Russian energy imports a colossal mistake? Next we look at the Summit of the Americas held in Los Angeles earlier this month and the status of US strategy towards South America, including the implications of the current presidential election in the US’s closest regional ally, Colombia. Finally we wrap up with a discussion about the Ukrainian refugee crisis with my colleague from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Dr. Steven Schrage, and what more the US can do to help the situation.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• EU Oil Sanctions: A Critical Miscalculation - 00:00
• Summit of the Americas and the Colombian Election - 23:50
• Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Interview with Dr. Steven Schrage - 49:35

Articles Mentioned in Episode

EU Oil Sanctions: A Critical Miscalculation

• Putin’s stagflation revenge (Fortune)
• U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability (NYT)

Summit of the Americas and the Colombian Election

• Biden’s hemispheric summit may end up a dud (WaPo)
• Colombia’s presidential run-off on June 19th is close (The Economist)

Interview with Dr. Steven Schrage

• Steven’s Twitter

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In this episode, we talk about Biden's recent trip to Asia as the US attempts to (re)pivot back to this critical region despite the ongoing war in Europe. We start talking about the Yoon-Biden summit, which renewed and expanded security cooperation between South Korea and the US. Next, we discuss the real goal of the trip: the renewal of policies meant to contain China's growing regional influence. Here we discuss Biden's controversial statement on Taiwan and the announcement of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework–what is it, and will anything of substance come from it?

Topics Discussed in this Episode:

• Colombian Run-off Elections
• North Korea and the Biden-Yoon Summit
• US Defense of Taiwan
• Economic Strategy for Containing China

Articles Mentioned in Episode:

Foreign Policy Quiz

Colombian Run-off Elections

• 'TikTok King' challenges ex-rebel for Colombia's top job (BBC)

North Korea and the Biden-Yoon summit

• Biden visit showcases hardened stances on North Korea (WaPo)

China Containment and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework

• America’s new Asian economic pact: just don’t call it a trade deal (The Economist)
• Will Biden’s Asia trip help the US meet its strategic objectives? (Brookings)
• Russia or China? The U.S. Has a Choice to Make.(NYT)

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In today’s episode, we revisit the latest developments in the Russo-Ukraine war with a focus on the growing split in US policy circles on what the end game for the conflict should look like and the seemingly blasé attitude toward the threat of nuclear war by many experts. From there we’ll pivot to a crisis that’s been impacting US families: the baby formula shortage. How does US trade policy factor in and why can’t foreign imports come to the rescue?

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 09:50 - NATO Expansion and Turkish objections
• 24:00 - Update on food and energy market impact
• 37:35 - End Game: Policy divisions in the West and sleepwalking to nuclear war
• 58:12 - Baby formula shortage in the US: Trade policy failure

Articles Mentioned in Episode

NATO Expansion and Turkish objections

• Erdoğan doubles down on threat to reject Finland and Sweden's NATO bids (Axios)
• Two Turkey Experts on Why Erdoğan Is Rejecting NATO Expansion (Carnegie Foundation)

Russian-Ukraine War: Food and Energy market impact

• The blockade of Ukraine’s ports is worsening world hunger (The Economist)
• Hungary ‘holding EU hostage’ over sanctions on Russian oil (The Guardian)
• Russian oil exports to Italy have more than quadrupled due to unintended consequences of Western sanctions (Business Insider)

Russian-Ukraine War: End Game

• The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready (NY Times)
• America Must Embrace the Goal of Ukrainian Victory (Foreign Affairs)

Baby Formula shortage in the US: Trade policy failure

• America’s Infant Formula Crisis and the ‘Resiliency’ Mirage (Scott Lincicome - Cato Institute)
• America's Trade and Regulatory Policies Have Contributed to the Baby Formula Shortage (Reason)

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In today’s episode, we take on one of the most pressing concerns for nations worldwide: Inflation! What has caused the historical rise in the U.S., and what policies can help address this problem. We consider how the Russia-Ukraine war impacts inflation and why governments should be franker in how policies like sanctions directly affect consumer prices. We also discuss how immigration may be key to the labor shortage problem and help keep prices down.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Response from listeners on China's lack of influence on OPEC+ nations
• Causes of Inflation
• Immigration and the Labor Market

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Causes of Inflation

• The global stagflation shock of 2022: how bad could it get? (FT)
• Fact check: Did Biden's government spending cause inflation? (Politifact)
• Governments Tighten Grip on Global Food Stocks, Sending Prices Higher (NYT)
• Russia's war in Ukraine threatens to hurt billions, UN warns, as food and energy prices soar (CNBC)
• Staffing shortages in America are a glimpse into its future (The Economist)

Immigration and the Labor Market

• Title 42, the Trump-era border policy dividing Democrats, explained (Vox)
• The Effect of Low-Skilled Labor Migration on the Host Economy (Carnegie Endowment)
• Here’s how the worker shortage is contributing to sky-high inflation (Fortune)
• Staffing shortages in America are a glimpse into its future (Economist)

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Help Ukrainians in Need

Our hearts are broken by the tragedy that is unfolding due to the ambitions of an evil dictator. Like many of you, we feel the impotence of not being able to do more to help their fight. Please consider supporting any of the organizations and charities below actively helping refugees during this unprecedented crisis:

• Uniting for Ukraine
• Médecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders
• Voices of Children
• CARE

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We begin the episode by looking at the new phase of the war as Russia narrows its goals to focus on controlling the eastern part of Ukraine. What are the US's and NATO's next steps militarily and are energy sanctions next?

We then discuss the global impact of recent elections in France, South Korea and the upcoming presidential election in Colombia. What are the key issues at the heart of each of these elections? How did the economic strain of both COVID and inflation impact the political debates within these countries? Finally, what do these results mean for US foreign policy, particularly, towards strategic rivals - Russia and China.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• War in the East: The Next Stage in the Russia-Ukraine War
• Can NATO countries cut off all oil and gas imports from Russia
• Election Roundup: France, South Korea, and Colombia

Articles Mentioned in Episode

War in the East: The Next Stage in the Ukraine war

• Rob Lee on why attrition will be a critical factor in the battle for Donbas (The Economist)
• Putin’s Plan A in Ukraine has failed. We can’t let his Plan B succeed (WaPo)

Russia-Ukraine War: Energy Sanctions in the EU

• Can Sanctions Really Stop Putin? (NY Times)
• How to cut off Russian oil and gas to Europe without causing chaos (Yergin and Pascual, WaPo)
• Europe Reluctantly Readies Russian Oil Embargo (NY Times)

Election Roundup: France, South Korea, and Colombia

• A Macron Victory Isn’t Enough (The Atlantic)
• South Korea’s hawkish new president will be good for the Western alliance (WaPo)
• Colombian candidate says he won't nationalize property (WaPo)
• Former guerrilla member running for president of Colombia envisions new Latin American left (WaPo)

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We begin this episode by looking at a question that many people have asked: why is the price of gas so high and what can be done about it. We then discuss the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war including the recent negotiations held in Turkey and how the Russian economy is doing. We also look at why Russia is struggling to sell its oil and consider what binds India and Russia. Finally, does Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations help us understand the war and why the argument remains so popular today.

Help Ukrainians in Need

Our hearts are broken by the tragedy that is unfolding due to the ambitions of an evil dictator. Like many of you, we feel the impotence of not being able to do more to help their fight. Please consider supporting any of the charities below actively helping refugees during this unprecedented crisis:

• Médecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders
• Voices of Children
• CARE

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Gas Prices: Why do prices go up quickly but come down slowly? - 07:45
• Russia-Ukraine War: Talks in Turkey and Recovery of the Ruble. - 21:00
• Why can't Russia sell its oil? - 33:20
• Clash of Civilizations Revisited: Was Samuel Huntington right? 44:30

Gas Prices: Rockets and Feathers

• Rockets and Feathers: Why Don't Gasoline Prices Always Move in Sync with Oil Prices? (St. Louis Federal Reserve)

Russia-Ukraine War: Talks in Turkey, Recovery of the Ruble, and Energy Market Update

• Wonking Out: The Curious Case of the Recovering Ruble (Paul Krugman; NY Times)
• Ukraine-Russia talks stir optimism, but West urges caution (WaPo)
• Can Germany cope without Russian gas? (The Economist)
• What can Russia do to sell its unwanted oil? (The Economist)

Clash of Civilizations Revisited: Was Samuel Huntington right?

• The Clash of Civilizations? (Samuel Huntington)
• Yes, There Is a Clash of Civilizations (Ross Douthat)
• The World Is Splitting in Two (The Atlantic)

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In our first-ever interview for the podcast, Anita speaks with Dr. Shahin Berenji on whether NATO expansion may have led to Russian aggression and war towards Ukraine and his research on why state leaders must be able to emphasize with the other side to resolve strategic rivalries.

Dr. Berenji is the Colin Powell Postdoctoral Teaching Fellow in the Department of Political Science and the John G. Tower Center for Public Policy and International Affairs at Southern Methodist University. He received his  Ph.D. in Political Science at UCLA and has recently published in International Security.You can find out more about his research on his website: https://shahinberenji.com

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As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth week, we remain inspired by the courage and sacrifice of the Ukrainian people as they fight for their families, their country, and the right to self-determination.

In this episode we take a step back from the day-to-day events to focus on the strategic decisions that are reshaping the economic and political world in profound ways over the last month. First, we look back and consider the origins of the crisis and ask our first guest on the podcast, Prof. Shahin Berenji from Southern Methodist University, how much weight should be given to realist criticism from prominent international relations scholars, like John Mersheimer, that NATO expansionism is the root cause of the conflict? Does Russia have legitimate security concerns by having NATO members on its borders?

Next, we discuss the greater implications of the unprecedented sanction regime imposed by the West, namely its growing impact on the global economy, the vulnerability of the developing world to these impacts, and the likely lessons being taken away by adversarial regimes. Finally, we wrap up by exploring how unified the world really is in its opposition to Russia’s war.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Interview with Prof. Shahin Berenji
• Russia-Ukraine War: Energy Markets and 2nd Order Impacts of Sanctions
• Russia-Ukraine War: Is the World Really in Support of Ukraine?

Dr. Shahin Berenji’s Website: https://shahinberenji.com/

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine War: Energy Markets and 2nd Order Impacts of Sanctions

• Daniel Yergin on Russia losing its status as an “energy superpower” (The Economist)
• War in Ukraine will cripple global food markets (The Economist)

Russia-Ukraine War: Is the World Really in Support of Ukraine?

• The Democracy Turning Its Back on Ukraine (The Atlantic)
• South Africa’s Self-Defeating Silence on Ukraine (Foreign Policy)
• Ties with Russia Compromise Israel’s Stance on Ukraine (The New Yorker)
• Mexico's President López Obrador declines to impose economic sanctions on Russia (NBC News)

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In this episode, we cover several different aspects of the Russia-Ukraine war. First up, we at the latest in the military dimensions of the conflict, including the calls for a no-fly zone, and what support NATO member countries are providing Ukraine short of becoming participants in the war. We then discuss the impact of the financial sanctions and the price increases for oil and natural gas. We also cover what Russia’s military struggles mean for Russia’s standing on the world stage and how the conflict impacts Chinese interests. Finally, we wrap up by talking about what we see as the path going forward for the Russian-Ukraine war.

Help Ukrainians in Need

Our hearts are broken by the tragedy that is unfolding due to the ambitions of an evil dictator. Like many of you, we feel the impotence of not being able to do more to help their fight. Please consider supporting any of the charities below actively helping refugees during this unprecedented crisis:

• Médecins Sans Frontieres/Doctors Without Borders
• Voices of Children
• CARE

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• 1:50 - Military State of Play: Russian advances, No-fly zone debate, Western military aide
• 26:20 - Financial Sanctions and Energy Markets
• 59:30 - China’s Dilemma
• 1:10:50 - The Path Forward

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Military State of Play: Russian advances, No-fly zone debate, Western military aide

• Russia’s war in Ukraine, explained (Vox)
• The Dangerous Allure of the No-Fly Zone (War on the Rocks)

Financial Sanctions and Energy Markets

• Western sanctions on Russia are like none the world has seen (The Economist)
• As U.S. lawmakers push to ban Russian oil, analyst sees ‘limited impact’ on prices (MarketWatch)
• Why Does the U.S. Buy Russian Oil? (WSJ)

China’s Dilemma

• China Declared Its Russia Friendship Had ‘No Limits.’ It’s Having Second Thoughts. (WSJ)

Exploring the Path Forward

• In one week of war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have veered history in a new direction (WaPo)

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Watching Russian troops invade Ukraine prompted us to record an emergency podcast episode on the recent developments of this crisis that is now a war. In addition to reflecting on these events, we discuss the tools available to Western countries to support Ukraine and punish Russia. We also go into depth about the role of sanctions in this conflict, including explaining the types of sanctions imposed on Russia and further measures under consideration. While sanctions do not have a good track record of foreign policy change, they are more than symbolic tools.

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In this episode, we begin with the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, where war appears imminent. We’ll consider how the West will respond and what the Ukrainian resistance might look like. Then onto the Canadian Convoy protest and what it signals for the larger populist movement on the right both in the US and elsewhere. Finally, we’ll wrap up by visiting the national elections in France and Hungary where many of the same themes seen in North America are front and center.

Also, check out Anita’s appearance on the Clubhouse’s ‘The Big Picture’ hosted by Pyotr Kurzin where she fields questions about Russia-China relations and the impact of the Ukraine crisis.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine: Likelihood of war and the West’s response - 9:40
• Canadian Trucker Protest and the Global Right - 29:30
• French and Hungarian National Elections - 43:00

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine: Likelihood of war and the West’s response

• Biden Says Putin Has Chosen ‘Catastrophic’ War Over Diplomacy (NYT)
• Can Ukrainian Resistance Foil a Russian Victory? (War on the Rocks; Brian Petit)
• Why the West’s Diplomacy With Russia Keeps Failing (The Atlantic; Anne Applebaum)

Canadian Trucker Protest and the Global Right

• Trudeau invokes emergency powers to shut down Canada’s protests (The Economist)
• Ottawa truckers' convoy galvanizes far-right worldwide (Politico)
• How American right-wing funding for Canadian trucker protests could sway U.S. politics (PBS Newshour)

French and Hungarian National Elections

• French election 2022 (The Economist)
• Trump encouraged French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour in phone call, campaign says (Politico)
• The Local’s French election podcast (The Local)
• As Orban runs for re-election, Hungary’s opposition fears fraud (The Economist)
• Why Conservatives Around the World Have Embraced Hungary’s Viktor Orbán (The New Yorker)

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• Anita’s Website:https://www.anitakellogg.com/
• Anita’s email: anita@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
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Episode Summary

In this episode, we begin with the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and what the most viable exit strategy there is for Putin short of full-scale war. Next, we discuss European energy insecurity and the countermeasures the US is taking to help its allies. We then move on to what to make of the growing alliance between China and Russia. Finally, we discuss Latin America's diplomatic efforts at the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Russia-Ukraine: Putin’s Exit Strategy - 5:30
• Russia-Ukraine: US countermeasures to address EU Energy Insecurity - 23:00
• Russia-China Growing Alliance - 35:00
• Latin American Diplomacy at the Beijing Olympics - 51:00

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Russia-Ukraine: Putin’s Exit Strategy

• Not everything is going Putin’s way on Ukraine (WaPo; Fareed Zakaria)
• Putin Is Caught in a Trap of His Own Making (NYT; Yulia Latynina)
• Europe Thinks Putin Is Planning Something Even Worse Than War (NYT)

Russia-Ukraine: US countermeasures to address EU Energy Insecurity

• Qatar’s emir visits White House, as Biden may need help with natural gas for Europe (WaPo)
• Natural Gas Shipments, Mostly From U.S., Ease Europe’s Energy Crunch (NYT)
• Azerbaijan Is Ready to Provide Europe With Emergency Gas Supplies (Bloomberg)

Russia-China Growing Alliance

• In Clash With U.S. Over Ukraine, Putin Has a Lifeline From China (NYT)
• Xi backs Putin’s opposition to Nato expansion at summit that underlines closer ties (FT)
• Putin, Xi Aim Russia-China Partnership Against U.S. (WSJ)
• Russian gas boost fuels Moscow's China pivot (DW)
• What China thinks of possible war in Ukraine (The Economist)

Diplomacy at the Beijing Olympics

• Latin American leaders target economic prizes during Beijing Winter Olympics (FT)

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In this episode, we talk about European energy insecurity with Russia and the escalating crisis in Ukraine. We also look at slowing growth in China and the need to rebalance its economy. Finally, we discuss the growing attacks on Muslims in India and the dangers of illiberalism to the global order.

Topics Discussed in this Episode

• Root causes of EU Energy Crisis - 05:00
• Russia-Ukraine: Imminent War? - 19:40
• Slowing Chinese Economy and Trade Imbalances - 38:20
• Rising Indian intolerance and Global Illiberalism - 52:40

Articles Mentioned in Episode

Root causes of EU Energy Crisis

• Gas shortages: what is driving Europe’s energy crisis? (FT)
• Moscow has the EU over a barrel on energy (FT)

Russia-Ukraine: Imminent War?

• As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine? (Economist)
• Putin has many options short of a multi-front invasion of Ukraine (WaPo)
• Why would Putin invade Ukraine? (WaPo Monkey Cage)
• The Day After Russia Attacks (Vindman; Foreign Affairs)

Slowing Chinese Economy and Trade Imbalances

• China’s record trade gap a symptom of its struggle to rebalance its economy (FT)
• China needs a new growth model, but that requires serious reform (FT)

Rising Indian intolerance and Global Illiberalism

• Hindu bigots are openly urging Indians to murder Muslims (Economist)
• The democratic threat to democracy (Brookings)
• India’s Democracy Is the World’s Problem (The Atlantic)
• India’s journey to illiberal democracy (FT)
• The Real Crisis of Global Order: Illiberalism on the Rise (Foreign Affairs)

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In this episode, we discuss what the Chinese-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest regional trade pact to date, means for the future of trade and the U.S.’s seeming withdrawal from leading on future international economic cooperation. Next, we discuss the crisis that no one is talking about — the diminishing opportunity for talks over Iran’s nuclear weapon development. Will Israel accept Iran as a de facto nuclear state, or could another Middle East war be on the horizon? We provide another update on Russia-Ukraine and the negations between Russia and NATO. Finally, we look at two recent articles by Francis Fukuyama (see notes below) on the democratic decline in the United States and its impact on U.S. global leadership.

Topics and Timestamps

• 10:15 - Listener Feedback
• 18:15 - RCEP: New Asian trade pact led by China goes into effect
• 31:45 Reviving the Iran Nuclear deal: Mission Impossible?
• 47:30 Russia-Ukraine: Russia and NATO get ready to negotiate
• 50:00 January 6th Capitol insurrection and the Global implications

Articles Mentioned in Episode

New Asian Trade Pact: RCEP

• In Asia, China fills an economic void the United States left (WaPo)
• RCEP kicks in as China seeks to lead regional economic integration (Nikkei Asia)

Reviving the Iran Nuclear deal: Mission Impossible?

• Iran-US: faltering nuclear talks enter dangerous phase (FT)
• The Looming Threat of a Nuclear Crisis with Iran (The New Yorker)

Russia-Ukraine Crisis

• Biden says he warned Putin of ‘severe sanctions’ if Russia invades Ukraine again (WaPo)
• U.S. Details Costs of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine (NY Times)

January 6th Anniversary

• One Single Day. That’s All It Took for the World to Look Away From Us. (Francis Fukuyama; NY Times)
• January 6 and Geopolitics (Francis Fukuyama; American Purpose)
• The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare (The Globe and Mail)
• January 6 Didn’t Happen Just to America (The Atlantic)

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In this episode, we look back at two of the more consequential foreign policy issues facing the US today: the global pandemic and the emerging strategy to deal with a rising China. In addition, we give an update on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the recent buzz about a nuclear energy renaissance.

Topics and Timestamps:

• 3:40 - Russia-Ukraine
• 13:00 - Nuclear and LNG
• 26:30 Global Coronavirus Vaccine Distribution
• 40:30 Great Power Politics and U.S. China Strategy

Articles Mentioned in Episode:

Russia Ukraine crisis

• Russia Issues Lists of Demands (The Guardian)
• Nato open to dialogue with Russia on European security demands (FT)

Energy in Focus: Nuclear power renewal and Surging LNG Demand

• Is Nuclear Energy Green? (WaPo)
• US-China gas deals defy tensions between world powers (FT)

Covid and Vaccine Diplomacy

• Vaccine Diplomacy sees Nicaragua cut ties with Taiwan for Covid shots (The Brazilian Report)
• Doubts over efficacy of Chinese vaccines stoke anxiety at home and abroad (FT)
• How the faltering global vaccination effort paved the way for alarming variants (Vox)
• Moderna's missteps undermine US vaccine diplomacy (The Hill)

China Grand Strategy

• The Inevitable Rivalry (John Mearsheimer; Foreign Affairs)
• Jiakun Jack Zhang (University of Kansas) “Assessing the Trade War’s Impact on Foreign Invested Enterprises in China” Conference Paper International Studies Association Annual Conference 2021

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Welcome to the official launch of our podcast on global affairs. In this episode, we discuss recent international news stories, beginning with the decision to increase the oil supply and its impact on inflation. We also cover Biden’s Democracy Summit and the diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics by the United States. We then turn to a more in-depth conversation on the implications of the build-up of 175,000 Russian troops along the Ukraine-Russia border. Additionally, Anita discusses her new role as a Brzezinski Postdoctoral Fellow in Foreign Policy and National Security at John Hopkins (SAIS)’s Foreign Policy Institute in Washington DC.

Timestamps:

• 5:30 Inflation and OPEC+ decision on production quotas
• 12:00 Biden’s Democracy Summit
• 20:30 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the Diplomatic Boycott
• 32:00 Russian troop build-up at the Ukrainian Border

Articles Mentioned in Episode

OPEC+ Decision on Production Quotas

• OPEC+ output hike gamble pays off as oil prices recover (Reuters)

Democracy Summit

• Global Views of Biden’s Democracy Summit (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
• Ahead of Biden’s Democracy Summit, China Says: We’re Also a Democracy (NY Times)
• Why China Is Freaking Out Over Biden’s Democracy Summit (Foreign Policy)

2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and the Diplomatic Boycott

• Do boycotts of sports events, such as the Beijing winter Olympics, work? (The Economist)
• What the US’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics does — and doesn’t — mean (Vox)

Russia-Ukraine Crisis

• Wait, is Russia going to invade Ukraine? (Vox)
• How the United States Can Break Putin’s Hold on Ukraine (Alexander Vindman; NY Times)
• How might allies respond if Russia invades Ukraine? (Defense News)
• The US can't deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine — and shouldn't even try (The Hill)
• Ukraine: Putin’s Unfinished Business (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

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• Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
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• Anita’s Twitter: @ARKellogg
• Anita’s Website: https://www.anitakellogg.com/
• Anita’s email: anita@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com
• Ryan’s email: ryan@kelloggsglobalpolitics.com