Sibylline Insight Series: Recent Episodes
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In this episode, Noam Ostfeld, Megan Sutcliffe, Omar Khadr and Claire Brady discuss the recent military confrontation between Israel and Iran, exploring Israel's objectives, Iran's response, the role of Iranian proxies, and the potential involvement of the US. Analysts provide insights into the geopolitical implications and the internal dynamics within Iran, as well as the strategies both nations may employ moving forward.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #Iran #Trump #Nuclear
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
In this episode, Gareth Westwood (Head of Global Intelligence) is joined by Lewis Galvin (Lead Americas Analyst) and Megan Sutcliffe (Middle East and Africa Analyst) to discuss the renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran ahead of upcoming talks in Rome over Easter weekend.
They explore the context of these negotiations, the motivations of both parties, and the implications of Trump's negotiating style. The conversation delves into Iran's potential gains from engagement, the red lines for both sides and the indicators of success or failure in the ongoing diplomatic efforts.
00:00 Introduction to the Emergency Podcast
00:47 Context of US-Iran Nuclear Talks
03:47 US Perspective on Renewed Negotiations
07:55 Iran's Motivations for Engagement
12:03 Trump's Negotiation Strategy
17:00 Iran's Red Lines and Trust Issues
20:58 Future of US-Iran Negotiations
24:55 Indicators of Success or Failure in Talks
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #Iran #Trump #Nuclear
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
In this cyber episode of the Insight Podcast, Lead Analyst Kailyn Johnson and Associate Analyst Denise Schipani, two experts from our Cyber desk, sit down to explore the increasing collaboration between state-sponsored cyber actors and cyber criminals, highlighting the implications for cybersecurity, business risks and attribution challenges. Denise explains the commercialisation of cybercriminal tools and how state actors leverage these resources to enhance their operations. The conversation also delves into the long-term effects of adopting cybercriminal tactics and the future trends in cyber cooperation.
If you enjoyed this special cyber episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk
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In this special episode, Head of Global Intelligence Gareth Westwood is joined by General Sir James Everard, the former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe and current Lead Senior Mentor for Allied Command Operations.
Gareth is also joined by Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord and Principal North America Analyst Claire Brady. Together, they discuss the evolving situation in Ukraine, focusing on recent negotiations, Russia’s stance on a ceasefire, the implications of U.S. intelligence sharing, and the current state of the war. The conversation also explores potential worst-case scenarios for Ukraine and the response from European leaders amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
The discussion delves into the complexities of European defence dynamics, NATO’s role, and the implications of U.S. foreign policy under Trump for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Key themes include Germany’s potential involvement, the fragility of ceasefire agreements, and Russia’s strategic objectives. The episode highlights the challenges of coalition-building in Europe and the uncertain future of NATO amid shifting political landscapes.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RiskIntelligence #Trump #Ukraine
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
In this episode, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by two analysts from the Americas desk, Claire Brady and Alexander Marciniak, to discuss Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Together they explain the reactions from both countries, the initial policy responses from both governments and how the tariffs could impact the economies of the US, Canada and Mexico.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #Trump #TrumpTariffs #Trudeau #Mexico
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
In this episode of The Insight Podcast, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Aédán Mordecai is joined by colleagues Jonah and Sophie to analyse the impeachment and arrest of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol following his short-lived declaration of martial law. They explore the key events that led to his downfall, the legal battles ahead, and the broader geopolitical consequences for North Korea, the US and Japan. Tune in for expert analysis of one of the most significant political crises in recent South Korean history.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #southkorea #southkoreapolitics
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
In this episode, Sydney Stewart is joined by Principal analyst on our Middle East, North Africa and Turkey desk, Noam Ostfeld and his fellow analyst Omar Khadr, who walk us through recent developments in Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Noam starts us off by explaining the situation between Israel, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas after a recent ceasefire was put in place. Omar then walks us through the recent escalations in Syria, laying out the different actors and the progress of the opposition offensive on multiple fronts.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #GeopoliticalPodcasts #Israel #Syria
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
Welcome back to another episode of the Insight Podcast! Join our Americas Intelligence Analysts Sydney Stewart and Claire Brady as they review Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the Presidential Election, Trump's latest cabinet picks and the likely policy position of the new administration, including trade with China.
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GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #GeopoliticalPodcasts #USElection2024 #harris2024 #Trump2024
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
What qualities do veterans bring to the business table? This Special Sibylline Insight episode tackles that question. Hosted by Sibylline CEO Justin Crump, our guests Caitlin McGilley, Bridget Guerrero, and Herbert Clay share personal experiences from military service to impactful careers in corporate security, consulting, and advocacy. They reveal the 'superpowers' that veterans possess, how they can be valuable assets in the private sector, and the unique challenges of transitioning from military to civilian careers. A must-listen for veterans and employers alike!
Interested in learning more about supporting veterans? Check out these fantastic organisations:Zeromils: Our mission is to create military thriving cultures and communities. ZeroMils / We Are Military Thriving™ Military Spouse Employment Partnership: https://msepjobs.militaryonesource.mil/msep/ Hire Heroes USA https://www.hireheroesusa.org Onward to Opportunity https://ivmf.syracuse.edu/programs/career-training/ Sara B McNamara, MSOD, Founder, Transition Strategies, sara@saramcnamara.com Courageous Leadership Alliance INC.: A DC-based consulting firm specializing in leadership development and coaching. For more details or to connect with us, please contact Todd Simons’ team at info@courageouslead.com.
In this special episode of the Insight Podcast, Lead Analyst Kailyn Johnson and Associate Analyst Denise Schipani, two experts from our Cyber desk, sit down to discuss trends they’ve observed in recent months that present risks to both businesses and individuals alike. Denise highlights the continuing trend of crypto scams and theft by state and non-state actors and the perennial threat that cyber poses to healthcare infrastructure and organisations.
If you enjoyed this special cyber episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk
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In this episode, our host Sydney Stewart is joined by an Associate Intelligence Analyst from the LATAM desk, Alexander Marciniak! Alex walks us through the latest wave of cartel violence in Mexico, explaining the root cause of the violence and the political and security impacts it will have on individuals and organisations in the region.
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Mexico #RefinedInsight #Podcast
In this episode of the Sibylline Insight Podcast, our host and Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart is joined by Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to discuss the developing crisis in the Middle East. Megan walks us through events from the recent killing of Hassan Nasrallah and the IDF ground operation into Lebanon, to the retaliatory strikes against Israel by Iran. Megan also gives us some of her desk’s analysis on the likelihood of further escalation and what it could mean for the wider region.
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In this episode of Refined Insight, our host and Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart is joined by Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe to discuss the risks posed by a changing climate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Together they discuss how both drought and flooding impact infrastructure, food security, energy security and even political tensions throughout the region.
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climatechange #podcast #africa
In this episode of What Just Happened? our host Ignacio Ayala is joined by Associate Intelligence Analyst Sophie Hanck from the Asia Pacific desk here at Sibylline. Together, they discuss China's recent 'third plenum', a high-level Central Committee forum for discussions on relevant policy issues. Sophie summarises the results of the plenum and what the implications of this key policy meeting will mean for stakeholders in the region.
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Welcome back to another episode of Refined Insight! Join our Americas Intelligence Analysts Sydney Stewart and Claire Brady as they unpack Biden's underwhelming debate performance, Biden's potential withdrawal from the race (and what happens if he does!) and the security implications of upcoming electoral events such as the Democratic National Convention! If you enjoyed the episode, please give us a like and subscribe for new episodes! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk
What Just Happened: Sibylline aims to bring you two distinct channels (short-form and long-form). What Just Happened is another podcast offering that aims to cover major geopolitical events as they happen through short, concise episodes where our regional experts sit down and discuss the who, what, where, when and why on any given event so you can stay up to date! Be sure to check out the show on your favourite podcast provider:
What Just Happened on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0EPKmIH...
What Just Happened on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
You can view both shows on Apple Podcasts here: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast...
GeopoliticsPodcast #RefinedInsight #Podcast #Risk #RiskIntelligence #GeopoliticalPodcasts #USElection2024 #Biden2024 #Trump2024
Music: Stock Media provided by @Boscorelli / Pond5
Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart and Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe return to cover the latest escalation in the ongoing Israel-Iran shadow war.
On 19 April, Iran activated its air defences in response to reported drone incursions, likely from Israel, near air bases in Esfahan and Tabriz. The strikes followed Iran's earlier launch of drones and missiles towards Israel. The Biden administration distanced itself from the Israeli attack but confirmed that it had been notified. Sanctions against Iran were discussed. Potential scenarios include increased strikes on Iranian proxies by Israel and possible retaliatory measures from Iran. The risk of escalation is acknowledged, with the possibility of a new baseline for direct engagement. The episode concludes with a focus on future US engagement and strategic risk forecasts for the region.
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In this special episode of 'What Just Happened,' Sydney Stewart, Lead Americas analyst, and Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and Africa desk are filling in for Ignacio Ayala while he is on leave!
Together, Sydney and Megan unpack Iran's unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel over the weekend. Megan covers the motivations behind the attack and potential responses in the coming weeks while Sydney lays out the US perspective and the potential responses from Washington.
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In this episode, Ignacio Ayala discusses the recent alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria with Middle East and North Africa analyst, Noam Ostfeld. The strike killed three top commanders of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, of the IRGC's Quds Force', a figure responsible for all operations in Syria and Lebanon. This marks a significant escalation in the region, as Israel had previously targeted lower-level IRGC personnel to disrupt Iran's support to its proxies. The episode delves into the potential repercussions of the strike, including Iran's vow to retaliate, concerns for Israeli assets and individuals, and the possibility of heightened tensions with Hezbollah along Israel's northern border.
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In this episode, Ignacio Ayala is joined again by Megan Sutcliffe, associate analyst on the Middle East and Africa desk, to unravel the recent developments regarding the United Nations Security Council's ceasefire resolution for Gaza, marking a pivotal shift in U.S. foreign policy. Megan provides insights into the UN's call for an immediate ceasefire, the nuances of past resolutions, and the impact on Israel's political landscape.
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Welcome to another episode of What Just Happened? This week, Ignacio Ayala, Lead Data and Insights analyst at Sibylline LTD, is joined by Sydney Stewart, Lead Americas analyst. Together, they unpack the resignation of Haiti's acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, which has sparked widespread attention amid escalating violence and political turmoil.
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What Just Happened? Claire Brady, Associate Analyst on the Americas desk here at Sibylline, breaks down the recent landmark ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding Colorado's legal capability to bar Donald Trump from the presidential election ballot. Claire also elaborates on the role of Congress, potential implications for the upcoming primaries, and the long-term ramifications of this precedent-setting ruling. The decision, while bipartisan in nature, raises questions about the impartiality of the Supreme Court, especially as Trump faces upcoming cases, including one concerning his immunity in criminal charges related to the 2020 election.
Tune in to get a comprehensive analysis of the ruling and its impact on the election landscape. Don't miss future episodes of 'What Just Happened,' available on your favorite podcast provider!
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SupremeCourt #Election2024 #TrumpOnBallot
Please note, after recording this episode, a prison service in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets district announced the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Therefore, discussions of the election could be subject to change as news on the fallout from Navalny's death emerges
In this episode of Sibylline Insights, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by Eurasia analysts Alexander Lord and Layla Guest to delve into the upcoming elections in Russia. They discuss the highly choreographed nature of the Russian presidential elections, where Putin's victory seems inevitable, and the implications it holds for the region. The conversation also touches on the recent election in Azerbaijan, shedding light on President Aliyev's continued grip on power and its potential impact on regional dynamics.
geopolitics #alexeinavalny #russiaukrainewar #azerbaijan #refinedinsight #intelligence #2024russianelections
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In this very special episode of Sibylline Insights our host, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, sits down with former senior diplomat Sir Laurie Bristow, the UK's former ambassador to Russia, Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. The episode covers Laurie's experiences, from the military withdrawal from Afghanistan and collapse of Kabul to an examination of Putin’s regime and strategies. The episode sheds light on the complexities of diplomatic contingency planning and the challenges faced by those in security roles.
About Laurie Bristow:
As noted in the podcast, Laurie is now President of Hughes Hall in Cambridge, the tenth to hold the position and the 16th head of the college since its foundation in 1885. In the podcast, Laurie and Gareth speak about Hughes Hall’s Centre for Climate Action which has a mission to “encourage academic excellence in climate law, governance and organisational change, and to translate and transfer this knowledge to corporate boards to accelerate the race to net zero emissions and climate resilience.” For more information on the Centre for Climate Action, please visit: https://www.hughes.cam.ac.uk/academic/the-bridge/bridge-centres/ccce/
Follow Laurie on social media and keep an eye out for news regarding his upcoming book which delves deeper into the fall of Kabul and his time as the UK Ambassador to Afghanistan:
X (Twitter): @laurie_bristow
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Dive into the latest geopolitical developments with Sibylline's 'What Just Happened?' podcast hosted by Ignacio Ayala. In this episode, Megan Sutcliffe, Associate Analyst on the Middle East and Africa desk, returns to shed light on recent Iranian strikes in Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan and share insights into the regional implications and the indicators to watch.
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In the premiere episode of What Just Happened?, Ignacio Ayala, Lead Data and Insights Analyst is joined by Megan Sutcliffe from the Middle East and North Africa desk to unpack the recent joint strike by a Western coalition on Houthi territory in the Red Sea Region.
What Just Happened? is a short-form podcast that aims to be released immediately following major geopolitical events and will feature a summary of events, commentary, and brief analysis from Sibylline's regional experts. Be sure to follow us on social media and wherever you get your podcasts so you don't miss new episodes!
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In this episode, Head of Global Intelligence Gareth Westwood, and Lead Americas Analyst Sydney Stewart explore the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, South China Sea tensions, Russian President Vladimir Putin's political manoeuvres, heightened terrorism risks in Europe, and the complex dynamics surrounding Venezuela's recent referendum and the risk of conflict with Guyana.
In this episode of Sibylline Insights, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, and Sydney Stewart, Lead Americas Analyst, touch on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, an unexpected outcome in Argentina's recent presidential elections, and Sikh activism in Canada. Stay informed and join the conversation!
For access to our FREE Israel reports, webinars, and data dashboards, email us at info@sibylline.co.uk
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Israel-Hamas Update
02:10 US Position & Regional Implications
03:31 Travel Advisory & Embassies
05:08 Argentina Elections Recap
07:06 Candidates and Economic Outlook
08:02 Canadian Sikh Activism
10:32 Unrest and Threat Assessment
11:35 How to Stay Informed
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argentina #refinedinsights #geopolitics #israelpalestineconflict
In this episode, Intelligence Delivery Lead Leo Collins is joined by Intelligence Analysts Thomas Carter and Megan Sutcliffe to discuss President Joe Biden's impeachment proceedings, as well as Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia and escalating violence in Mali. Finally, Thomas walks us through a high-level espionage incident in the UK and the wider conversation concerning ‘de-risking’ and Beijing's influence in Europe.
wagner #putin #kimjongun #mi6 #worldnews #geopolitics #refinedinsights #mali
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In this episode, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by co-host Sydney Stewart, North America Intelligence Analyst. Together, they will delve into various pressing global issues:
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North Korea's recent "scorched earth" nuclear test (1:02)
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Climate concerns in Australia (3:50)
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3D printed weaponry and extremism in Finland (7:37)
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Risks associated with the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France (11:22)
Then, Karan Vassil, Associate Analyst from the Eurasia desk, provides a quick update on the continuing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia (13:32)
Finally, our Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, Edie Lipton, joins Gareth for an in-depth discussion on yet another coup in West Africa, this time in Gabon (15:41)
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In this episode, Intelligence Delivery Lead Leo Collins is joined by North American Intelligence Analyst Sydney Stewart to discuss Donald Trump’s ongoing legal troubles. Sydney is then joined by Sibylline’s newest Intelligence Analyst, Lily Hood, to discuss strike activity across the US and the impacts it may have on the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
trump2024campaign #sagaftrastrike #hotlaborsummer #laborstrike #refinedinsight
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In this episode, Head of Global Intelligence Gareth Westwood is joined by Intelligence Delivery Lead Leo Collins to discuss the recent coup and unrest in Niger, Israel’s controversial legislation regarding the Supreme Court, a missing Chinese minister and a rise in zero-day cyber attacks (brought to us by our Cyber Intelligence Analyst, Kailyn Johnson). Gareth is then joined by Eurasia Intelligence Analyst Layla Guest to discuss Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Belarus.
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In this episode, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is join by Leo Collins, Intelligence Delivery Lead, to discuss recent global events including the Black Sea Grain Initiative, recent protests in Baghdad at a Swedish embassy, and a shooting in New Zealand. Then, Gareth is joined by Megan Sutcliffe, Associate Analyst on the Middle East and Africa desk, to delve into the security environment in Mali and the recently held constitutional referendum which aimed to transfer military power into civilian rule, seemingly distancing civilian oversight from the current military junta. However, Megan reveals that the referendum results may not be as straightforward as they appear.
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In this episode, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence and Sydney Stewart, North America Intelligence Analyst, take us through top stories from the past few weeks including a brief review of the Wagner mutiny in Russia, popular protests in France, and Israeli raids in refugee camps. Then, Gareth is joined by Riccardo Cociani, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, to discuss the implications of China's amended counter-espionage laws impacting businesses and visitors.
China #GlobalSecurity #refinedinsight #franceprotest #israelpalestine
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In honour of Pride Month, join Sydney Stewart, an Intelligence Analyst specialising in North America, as she engages in a compelling discussion with Edie Lipton, an Analyst focused on Sub-Saharan Africa, and Aeden Mordecai, Principal Analyst covering the Asia Pacific region. Together, they explore the diverse challenges and security concerns that the LGBTQ+ community encounters in various regions, including Kenya, Singapore, and the United States. This podcast delves into the complexities of LGBTQ+ issues within these distinct cultural contexts, offering a comprehensive understanding of the social, legal, and cultural landscapes impacting LGBTQ+ individuals and their communities.
pridemonth #lgbtq #security #refinedinsight
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Join our host, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, in an engaging discussion on the latest developments regarding the JCPOA, Iran's recent missile tests, and more! This week, Gareth is accompanied by Valeria Scuto, our Principal Middle East & North Africa Analyst. Stay informed and never miss an episode by liking and subscribing to our podcast. Be the first to know when new episodes are released!
iran #jcpoa #irannuclear #missiletests
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In this episode our host, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, joins Associate Analyst, Megan Sutcliffe, to discuss Turkey's latest election, Erdoğan's victory in the run-off and his 5th term as Turkish President. _________________________________________________________________________
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In this episode, Sir James Everard, a retired senior British Army officer who served as NATO's Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe, joins Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, and Alexander, Lord Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, on the Sibylline Insights Podcast. The theme of the day is "Command and Control: Adapt or Die" which will be discussed in-depth along with some perspective and updates on the war in Ukraine.
ukrainewar #nato #wagner #russiaukrainewar #military _________________________________________________________________________
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In this episode Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by Edie Lipton to walk us through the recent clashes in Sudan which have dominated the news cycle recently. Then, Konrad Petraitis explains Argentina’s inflation problem, and finally, Sydney Stewart discusses the ongoing water shortage in the South West region of the US. To stay up to date on all global intelligence matters, please like and subscribe!
Recorded: 21 April 2023
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In this Deep Dive episode, intelligence analysts from various desks will discuss the impacts of a recent TikTok ban on government devices in the US and the potential global implications. We are joined by Kailyn Johnson, Lead Cyber Analyst, Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, Sydney Stewart, North America Analyst and Tom Carter, Associate European Analyst.
tiktokban #dataprivacy #dataprotection #china
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In this episode Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, joins Aédán Mordecai to discuss upcoming Thai elections. Edie Lipton will take us through recent protests in Kenya and finally, Konrad Petraitis will discuss the complex peace process taking place in Colombia.
thailand #kenyanews #colombia #peacetalks
INTRO: 00:00
THAI ELECTIONS: 00:30
PROTESTS IN KENYA: 06:13
PEACE TALKS IN COLOMBIA: 11:05
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In this episode, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, is joined by Alex Lord, Lead Eurasia & Europe Analyst, to explain the fallout of President Macron’s decision to push through a controversial pension reform bill. Then, Riccardo Cociani, Principal Asia Pacific Analyst, will discuss Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, and finally, Layla Guest, Eurasia Intelligence Analyst, will walk us through the International Criminal Court’s indictment of Vladimir Putin.
ICC #Putin #frenchprotests #pensionreform #xijinping _________________________________________________________________________
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In this episode of Sibylline Insights our host, Gareth Westwood, Head of Global Intelligence, will be joined by three intelligence analysts from the firm. Sydney Stewart will explain the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, Layla Guest will discuss Russian aggression and protests in Moldova and finally, Rhiannon Phillips will weigh-in on the apparent rapprochement between the Saudi and Iranian regimes.
refinedinsights #Iran #SVB #siliconvalleybank
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In this special episode of Sibylline's Deep Dive, our Head of Global Intelligence, Gareth Westwood, is joined by South Asia Analyst Supriya Ravishankar, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Dr. Guo Yu and guest speaker Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center. Together, they discuss the latest twists and turns in ex-prime minister Imran Khan's bid to return to power, Pakistan's volatile economic and security situation as well as Islamabad's relations with key friends and foes, in the names of China, India and the US.
Learn more about our special guest, Michael Kugleman:
Bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman
Twitter: https://twitter.com/michaelkugelman
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In this special episode of the Sibylline Podcast, four of our analysts from the Global Intelligence Branch sit down to discuss the topic of women in the consulting, security and intelligence industry in honour of International Women's day on the 8th of March. The speakers cover a range of topics including joining the industry as a woman, challenges and issues faced by women, support systems, maternity leave and much more.
In this episode our host, Gareth Westwood, is joined by three Sibylline intelligence analysts. Ben Manzin discusses South Africa's use of 'loadshedding' and the broader implications of the energy crisis. Supriya Ravishankar explains the proposed IMF funding for Pakistan and, finally, Konrad Petraitis discusses Latin American views on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
loadshedding #southafrica #pakistan #refinedinsights
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In this premier episode of the Sibylline Deep Dive, Gareth Westwood is joined by two intelligence analysts, Valeria Scuto and Rhiannon Phillips to discuss the impact of the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria and their implications for the broader region.
Turkey #syria #earthquake #refinedinsight
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In this episode our host is joined by Edie Lipton to discuss Ethiopia's other conflict, Thomas Carter to explain climate activism in Europe and Kailyn Johnson to discuss Ransomware and what companies can do to protect themselves. Also, in a bonus segment, Sydney Stewart and Riccardo Cociani will discuss the infamous Chinese 'weather' balloon that has taken the headlines by storm.
chineseballoon #ethiopia #climateaction #ransomware #cybersecurity #refinedinsight
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In this episode, Lead Sub Saharan Africa analyst Ben Manzin unpacks risks associated with the upcoming Nigerian elections. MENA Analyst Rhiannon Phillips joins us to discuss Turkish elections and we explore the current political climate in Brazil with Associate LATAM Analyst, Eduardo Damm.
Refinedinsight #nigeria #nigerianelection2023 #Turkey #erdoğan #brazil #bolsonaro #elections
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In this premier episode of the Sibylline Forecast, Gareth Westwood, Head of the Global Intelligence Branch, is joined by Anastasia Chisholm, Sydney Stewart and Zsofia Wolford to discuss rising tensions in Israel amid the return of Benjamin Netanyahu, extremist attacks targeting US energy infrastructure, and increased civil unrest in Kosovo.
Sibylline Forecast marks the launch of a new initiative to provide our listeners and subscribers with more streamlined and diverse analysis of global events. Now, you can listen to our new format and watch on our YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTV
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On 17 December, Tunisians will cast their ballots in the country's much-anticipated parliamentary elections. The elections are the first following President Kais Saied's suspension of parliament in July 2021, having since extended his executive authority. Combined with a new constitution and electoral law, this has fostered an increasingly restrictive political environment in recent months, heightening domestic and international concerns over Tunisia's democratic backslide.
Overall, sentiment surrounding the parliamentary elections has been negative, amid a boycott from political parties and groups. Widespread political disenfranchisement is likely to contribute to a low voter turnout and the heightened threat of unrest in the coming days and weeks. The incoming government, likely to comprise President Saied's supporters, is set to face continued challenges in advancing economic reforms to secure IMF funding in 2023, due to strong union opposition, which is likely to undermine investor confidence in the coming months.
Join our hosts Konrad Petraitis (Lead Americas Analyst), Sydney Stewart (North America Analyst) and Leo Collins (Dangerous Organisations and Individuals Analyst) as they discuss the ramifications of the 2022 US Midterm elections results.
Much to the surprise of many pollsters, political commentators and indeed voters, the 8 November midterm elections delivered an unusual victory to the incumbent Democratic party and the rumoured ‘red wave’ proved to be more of a ripple as Democrats retain control of the Senate while Republicans take control of the House. Our hosts discuss what this new political landscape will mean for future political dynamics, businesses, the economy, extremism and political violence in the United States as we look towards 2024.
Join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Sibylline's Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our APAC Analyst, to discuss Pakistan's ongoing political instability and the wider economic and security implications.
On 3 November, former prime minister and leader of the main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, was shot and injured during a high-profile anti-government protest rally dubbed the 'long march'. The incident has further inflamed the already elevated tensions between the PTI and the Pakistan Muslim League (N)-led government, with Khan and the PTI accusing incumbent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the army of being responsible for the 'assassination attempt'. As Khan seeks to return to power while the current government continues to resist calls for an early election, Pakistan's domestic political situation looks set to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks.
Join your host Leo Collins, our Organisations and Dangerous Individuals Analyst along with Konrad Petraitis, our Principal Americas Analyst and Eduardo Damm Braga, our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the latest developments in the ELN-Colombian government peace deal.
November will mark the start of peace negotiations between Colombia and the ELN. On November 1 in Caracas, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and Colombian President Gustavo Petro met to discuss efforts to improve bilateral ties and set the framework for talks between Bogota and the ELN guerrillas. Both sides are expected to hold talks in Caracas, which are likely to result in a decline in the guerrillas' high-profile crimes, including such as assassinations, kidnappings and IED attacks on government or security personnel.
Join your host Benedict Manzin Lead Sub Saharan African Analyst, along with Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss the COP27 conference in Egypt.
Egypt's hosting of the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in South Sinai's coastal resort city of Sharm El Sheikh will take place amid heightened international scrutiny from activist groups. This is largely a result of the government's human rights track record and the crackdown on civil society. Both domestic and international climate, civil rights and human rights activist organisations are almost certain to face obstructions to their COP27-related activities and participation in the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, Egyptian authorities have maintained and adopted enhanced measures aimed at mitigating the risk of widespread domestic unrest and the threat of terror attacks on the COP27 venue and nearby soft targets in Sharm El Sheikh. The government's handling of the climate conference will impact its objectives of establishing Egypt as a trusted host country for multilateral summits and events, including Egypt's bids to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup and the 2036 Olympic Games. As such, event sponsors and businesses engaging with Cairo are likely to face elevated brand image risks in the coming months
In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, and Asia-Pacific Intelligence Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani to discuss recent military provocations by North Korea and possible implications for geopolitical risks and business operations.
Tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula have risen markedly amid Pyongyang conducting a new wave of missile launches and reports of an imminent nuclear test. As a show of determination to remain a nuclear state, North Korea has also adopted a new nuclear law that seemingly permits the right to 'pre-emptive strike'. In response, the US and its allies – Japan and South Korea – have sought to bolster military cooperation and force readiness through a number of joint exercises.
In this week's podcast, join your host, Benedict Manzin, our Lead Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, along with Konrad Petraitis, our Lead Americas Analyst, and Eduardo Braga our Latin America Analyst, to discuss the unexpected result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, the alliances being formed, and the outlook for the runoff.
With the announcement of a second round of voting for the presidency of Brazil, after Jair Bolsonaro outperformed the expected results, undermining the chances of candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to win the elections in the first round, new alliances arose, demonstrations became stronger, and the questioning regarding the accuracy of the electoral polls was reignited.
In this week's podcast, join your host, Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst and fellow APAC analysts, Supriya Ravishankar and Aédán Mordecai to discuss the devastating floods in Pakistan and the likely political, economic, and security implications.
Record-high monsoon rainfall has resulted in the worst floods in Pakistan's modern history hitting large parts of the country. With approximately one-third of the country submerged under water, the floods have affected over 60 percent of the population and caused significant damage to critical infrastructure and key sectors like agriculture and textiles, while the death toll continues to climb. Given the very limited institutional capacity, the unfolding natural disaster will further destabilise Pakistan's fragile economy and present fresh challenges to the under-pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government in the months ahead, amid the ongoing political wrangling with the opposition led by ex-PM Imran Khan.
In this week's podcast, join your host Valeria Scuto, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm, our Associate Analyst and Ahmed Alqarout, our Lead Middle East and North Africa Analyst to discuss Israel's launch of Operation Breaking Dawn against targets of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the Gaza Strip on 5 August that prompted a weekend of cross-border confrontations with the group.
Despite the agreement of a ceasefire on 7 August, ethno-religious tensions remain high in the Palestinian Territories, following frequent Israeli military raids and arrests on Palestinian militant group leadership in the West Bank.
The Israeli military's targeting of PIJ specifically, while aiming to avoid escalations with Hamas, in part reflects the varying degrees to which both groups are willing to engage in armed confrontations with Israel, with PIJ being the more willing party. The latest escalations are underpinned by an intensification in Israeli counter-terrorism operations in the West Bank since April, in response to a series of terror attacks on Israeli territory. Ongoing operations will continue to drive tensions with Palestinian militant groups, increasing the threat of repeated bursts of short-term, limited armed escalations in the coming months.
In this week's podcast, join Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst, and Edie Lipton our Associate Analyst, as we discuss the general election in Kenya.
The polls on 9 August look set to be one of the closest elections in recent Kenyan history. Opposition leader Raila Odinga only narrowly leads Deputy President William Ruto in opinion polls, elevating concerns that the unsuccessful candidate will likely allege fraud, igniting ethnic tensions primed by widespread hate speech online. However, with neither candidate offering significantly meaningful policy differences for Kenya’s electorate, higher rates of voter apathy could potentially mitigate the extent of violence.
In this week's podcast, join your host Rhiannon Phillips, our Middle East and North Africa Associate Analyst along with Valeria Scuto, our Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East and North Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the recent increase in sandstorms over the Middle East and North Africa region.
Sandstorms across Iraq and the wider region over recent months have generated disruptions to travel and business operations and prompted a surge in hospital admissions. Though not a new phenomenon, dust and sandstorms in the region are becoming more frequent and severe in their intensity against the backdrop of climate change, population growth and associated conditions including dams along key waterways, overuse of river waters, overgrazing and deforestation.
Developments highlight a crucial need for more cohesive national and regional mitigation and resilience strategies. However, efforts among and between regional governments to cooperate on this issue have so far been unsuccessful in addressing the negative consequences of the dust storms and broader shifts in regional weather patterns. As such, businesses operating in the region will continue to face operational and supply chain risks in the coming months, as well as the likely longer-term decline in overall workforce health and growing climate-related displacement
The reclusive regime has conducted a record 16 missile tests so far in 2022, including its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in five years, ratcheting up military provocation and tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, the country is also experiencing its first official Covid-19 outbreak despite shutting its borders in 2020. Considering North Korea's poor public health infrastructure and high incidence of malnutrition among its unvaccinated population, the pandemic could deal a devastating blow to its fragile economy, and ultimately threatening its national security. Join our team, Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst and fellow APAC Analysts Hans Horan and Riccardo Cociani, as they discuss how the country’s worsening Covid-19 outbreak could affect its missile and nuclear weapons developments, its relations with South Korea and the US, as well as the far-reaching implications on one of the region’s most volatile geopolitical flashpoints.
This week join Valeria Scuto, our Middle East Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm and Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analysts for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the upcoming elections in Lebanon.
Lebanon's elections this Sunday, 15 May, will take place amid a protracted economic crisis and persistent resentment against political elites. Despite the common perception that government corruption and ineptitude are to blame for the country's socio-economic deterioration, many Lebanese residents are uncertain of their ability to change the political status quo through their ballots.
Meanwhile, the international community will closely watch electoral processes, amid concerns that the announcement of final results will face delays driven by contestation from losing parties. As such, the weeks following the vote will represent a key flashpoint for domestic unrest. In addition, delays to government formation or obstructions to political and economic reforms will undermine the government's ability to secure third-party donor funding from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, likely further exacerbating Lebanon's economic collapse in the coming months.
After much media speculation and diplomatic concerns, Beijing and Honiara finally confirmed the signing of a "Security Cooperation Agreement" last week. Although neither government has disclosed the content of the agreement, a draft leaked in March revealed the extent of proposed close cooperation on security and defence affairs, including the possibility of deploying Chinese police and armed forces, as well as military assets to the Pacific island nation. The move has raised concerns amongst other key stakeholders in the region, with Australia, New Zealand, the US, and Japan all voicing strong opposition to the pact. Foreign diplomatic attempts to dissuade Honiara from signing the agreement were to no avail.
This week, join our Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, Dr Guo Yu, and fellow APAC analysts Riccardo Cociani and Aédán Mordecai, as we discuss the details of this agreement and its geopolitical implications for the region and beyond.
In this week's podcast, join our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst Eloise Scott, along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst, and Edie Lipton our Associate Analyst, as we discuss the presidential election in Somalia.
With the majority of Somalia’s parliament now in place, pressure is building to finally conclude presidential elections before IMF programmes automatically lapse. However, there is a high likelihood that elections will prompt allegations of fraud. Al-Shabaab seeks to exacerbate this and stands to gain from infighting within the armed forces, threatening an escalation in attacks, including in neighbouring countries.
Former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif replaced Imran Khan as the new prime minister of Pakistan after a disrupted no-confidence motion over the weekend. However, Sharif will now face a set of pressing challenges such as protests by Khan and his supporters, and a debilitated economy while also having to form an amicable relationship with the country's powerful military establishment.
Join your host our Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, Dr Guo Yu, our South Asia Analyst, Supriya Ravishankar and our Asia-Pacific Analyst, Aédán Mordecai, as they disentangle these challenges and assess what looks set to be a rocky road ahead for the new government.
In this week's podcast, join your host Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau, our Europe Analyst, and Zsofia Wolford, our Associate Europe Analyst to discuss the up and coming French Presidential Elections.
The first round of France's 2022 presidential elections will be held on 10 April. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is currently most likely to win a second five-year term, but with an increasingly stagnant election campaign, he faces a substantial challenge from far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who has emerged as a clear challenger ahead of the first round. Extreme right-wing ideologue Éric Zemmour, conservative leader Valérie Pécresse and socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon all face a difficult battle to survive to the second round, but voter apathy may increase this election's unpredictability as a historic low turnout is expected.
In this week's podcast, join your host Valeria Scuto, our Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Analyst, along with Rhiannon Phillips and Anastasia Chisholm, our Associate Analysts, discuss the multiple religious festivities in the Middle East and North Africa regions taking place over the coming month, amid a significant uptick in violent attacks and conflict escalations.
Notably, Israel has witnessed one of the deadliest weeks in years, both in terms of ethno-religious and terrorist violence, heightening concerns over a return to protracted levels of inter-communal violence ahead of the holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover.
Equally, regional leaders express anxieties over the true longevity of the current ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi-led Coalition, and whether any further escalation in the trajectory of the conflict will sustain the risk of cross-border attacks. Finally, the global economic fallout of the Russia – Ukraine conflict will likely place additional pressures on deepening food insecurities in the region, particularly in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and Lebanon. As such, rising food prices and soaring inflation rates represent the primary drivers of civil unrest in the coming weeks.
In this week's podcast, join your host Eloise Scott, our Global Intelligence Manager, along with Benedict Manzin, our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst to discuss the increase in food and fuel prices due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how it will drive widespread inflation and increase strains on rising numbers of people facing severe food insecurity, with associated unrest likely to exacerbate political crises, particularly across the Horn of Africa. The conflict will also renew competition between western states and Russia for influence in Africa, empowering authoritarian governments.
In this week's podcast, join your host Eloise Scott, our Global Intelligence Manager, along with Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analyst to discuss the missile strikes launched by Iran on 13 March on targets in the northern Kurdistan region of Iraq, with somewhat conflicting accounts of target-type and motive. Iranian claims that the attack targeted Israeli "strategic centres" moderately elevate the risk of a return to tit-for-tat hostilities between Iran and Israel, as well as other recent diplomatic developments between Iran and the UK and US that could help to unblock stalled nuclear talks.
Voters in South Korea will head to the polls next Wednesday to elect their new head of state, as the constitution limits the incumbent President Moon Jae-in to a single five-year term. Despite the election being overshadowed by the escalating conflict in Ukraine and the associated fallout, this presidential race looks set to be one of the closest contests. The two front-runners, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, appear to be neck-and-neck in opinion polls, though both have been embroiled in corruption scandals.
Join our Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst, Dr Guo Yu and fellow APAC Analyst and Korean politics specialist Hans Horan, as we discuss the upcoming vote and its significance in shaping South Korea's socio-economic policy as well as the security situation in the Korean Peninsula for the next five years.
Over the past year, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has undergone three successful coups among its member states, prompting fears of a potential shift back to the political instability that marked many post-independence African governments. While driven by a variety of factors, the coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali appeared to share key similarities. Namely, these were instances where younger officers successfully identified that elevated levels of anti-government sentiment would provide them cover to act against their governments and secure advancement. The podcast will examine this phenomenon and highlight the ways in which the military juntas that have developed from these coups now act as a source of inspiration and support for other military governments and outline the challenge this trend creates for the region.
In this week's podcast, join our Lead Middle East & Africa Analyst Eloise Scott, along with Benedict Manzin our Lead Sub Sahara Africa Analyst, and Edie Lipton our Associate Analyst, as we discuss the drivers behind Coups in West Africa.
As China kicks off the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games with what is promised to be a "very different" opening ceremony from the one 14 years ago, the context under which the Winter Games are held also could not be more contrasting to that of the 2008 Summer Olympics. Not only will the event be subject to the most comprehensive Covid-19 countermeasures ever seen in international sports but the Games have also been shrouded by much controversy regarding China's human rights record – all taking place against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical jostling between Beijing and Washington.
In this week's podcast, join our Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst Dr Guo Yu, and fellow APAC Analysts, Aédán Mordecai and Hans Horan, as we discuss the broad geopolitical and security risks connected to the Beijing Winter Olympic Games.
In this week's podcast, join Valeria Scuto, our Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Analyst, along with Anastasia Chisholm and Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analysts, to discuss that in recent weeks we have witnessed an escalation in the conflict between Saudi-led Coalition forces and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen's southern and eastern provinces, culminating in the Houthis targeting sites across Abu Dhabi on 24 January and exactly a week prior.
These latest developments have cast a spotlight on an often-overlooked conflict while confirming the long-range capabilities of the Houthi rebels. As a result, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are calling on support from international partners, most notably the US, to manage the elevated threat towards critical infrastructure, assets, and personnel.
Sustained Houthi threats in the coming weeks are likely to elevate regional tensions as world powers continue to pursue a nuclear deal with Iran while heightening business uncertainty across the Kingdom and the Emirates.
In this week’s podcast, join Jocelyn Spottiswoode, our Senior Case Manager for BI&I and Daphne Biliouri-Grant our Senior Adviser on ESG, as they discuss the importance of Environmental, Social and Governance issues being integrated into Corporate Strategy, and how best to get started on what can sometimes feel like an overwhelming and impossible task.
In this week's podcast, join Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst and Zsofia Wolford and Alex Lord, our Europe and Eurasia Analysts, to discuss the uprising's implications for the future of the Tokayev government and for the wider region.
Last week's nationwide protests in response to a surge in liquified natural gas prices were marked by unprecedented violence and harsh repression, resulting in more than 160 deaths and almost 8,000 arrests. With the authorities initially struggling to control the situation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appealed to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) for help in quelling the protests.
Although the Tokayev regime has subsequently managed to re-establish order with CSTO's help, the underlying drivers of dissatisfaction remain and are likely to continue undermining government stability and driving policy and human rights risks moving forward. Moreover, the deployment of CSTO peacekeeping troops is likely to increase Kazakhstan's dependency on Russia in the year ahead.
Join your host Alex Parsons, our Director of Intelligence, who is joined by our Asia-Pacific Analysts, Hans Horan and Aédán Mordecai, to discuss official delegates attendance at the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games.
Since Washington's announcement of a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games early this month, a number of governments, including Australia, the UK, and Canada, have joined in, citing China's human rights record. However, many other governments are leaning in favour of critical engagement with China over diplomatic boycotts, while others, such as New Zealand, quoted the pandemic and China's strict border control and quarantine rules for deciding not to send an official delegation to the Games. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will be among a handful of leaders that have confirmed their attendance at the Games.
Join your host Alex Parsons, our Director of Intelligence, who is joined by Valeria Scuto, our Middle East Analyst, and Anastasia Chisholm, our Middle East Associate Analyst, to discuss the mounting political divisions threatening to disrupt Libya's presidential elections, due to take place on Friday, 24 December.
A military build-up in the capital, Tripoli, overnight on 15 December, has contributed to growing concerns that the country is not prepared to host its first round of polls, despite sustained pressure from some domestic players and the international community. Libya's security environment, which remains characterised by rival militia groups and foreign actors, will play a central role in determining whether elections can take place.
Elections, or their postponement, are likely to exacerbate existing factionalism and institutional divisiveness. This is set to drive an uptick in the likelihood of armed hostilities, presenting risks to physical assets, particularly energy infrastructure, and foreign personnel.
John Breen, Lead Analyst for Global Risk at Sibylline is joined by North America Analyst James Hannan for a discussion on global Covid-19 trends following the emergence of the Omicron variant. Their conversation unpacks prevailing endemiological trends, including Europe's ongoing infection wave, followed by an overview of further variant proliferation risk factors, and the disruptions this could have on global business operations
Last week US and Ukrainian intelligence published warnings over the most recent Russian military build-up along Ukraine's eastern border, predicting that it may be a precursor to a larger military offensive in early 2022. Increasingly heated rhetoric between Moscow, Ukraine and NATO has ramped up regional tensions in recent weeks, with both sides accusing one another of provocations in Donbas and the Black Sea. In this week's Sibylline podcast, Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Alex Lord, our Europe and Eurasia Analyst, and Zsofia Wolford, our Europe Analyst, to discuss the latest developments and whether the current tensions will result in conflict.
On 14 November, Remembrance Sunday, a man detonated an improvised explosive device outside Liverpool Women's Hospital in the UK, killing himself just before the national two-minute silence. While the motive behind the attack remains uncertain at this stage, the incident was declared a terrorist incident by security services and precipitated an increase in the UK's Terror Threat Level from "substantial" to "severe", meaning an attack is "highly likely". In this week's Sibylline podcast, Alexander Parsons, our Director of Intelligence, is joined by Alex Lord, Europe and Eurasia analyst, and Zsofia Wolford, Europe associate analyst, to discuss the attack and its impact on the terror threat environment in Europe.
Recent developments in the horn of Africa have severely threatened longer-term stability in both Ethiopia and Sudan. In Ethiopia, Tigray rebels have made notable gains against government forces, raising concerns about a potential advance on the capital Addis Ababa. While in Sudan, the 25 October coup is flailing, with military leaders doubting their capability to contain substantial domestic opposition compounded by international isolation.
The UN's 26th Climate Change Conference (COP26) is set to take place in Glasgow between 31 October and 12 November. With environmentalist movements like Extinction Rebellion and Greenpeace seeing it as a make-or-break summit, activist protests and direct actions are highly likely to cause significant disruption to businesses not only in Glasgow but across the UK.
In this week's Sibylline podcast Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe and Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Alexander Lord, our Europe and Eurasia analyst, and Louis Cox-Brusseau, our Europe analyst, to discuss what we can expect from the summit.
This week join Eloise Scott, our Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa and Rhiannon Phillips, our Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the rising situation in Lebanon.
In the aftermath of last week’s street violence in Beirut, Lebanon is experiencing a worrying rise in sectarian tensions and aggressive posturing amidst deepening financial crises and enduring political uncertainty. The ongoing investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast is subject to considerable political pressure, and will likely be a trigger for further mobilisation and protests. Key sectarian fault lines across Lebanon, therefore, remain flashpoints for further confrontations as ethnoreligious tensions spill over into violence.
The past few days have seen tensions across the Taiwan Strait rise further as Beijing and Taipei marked their respective national days. China’s air force deployed a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ), while Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen again defended the island as a de facto democratic, sovereign nation. Beijing's increased political and economic pressure, as well as military posturing, on Taipei takes place against the backdrop of an intensifying China-US strategic rivalry, for which Taiwan remains a key point of contention.
Join our Asia-Pacific analysts, Dr Guo Yu, Aedan Mordecai and Jack Broome to discuss the latest situation concerning Taiwan, and how such persistent cross-strait tensions may evolve in the coming year, assessing possible future flashpoints and business implications.
This week join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Valeria Scuto our Middle East and North Africa Analyst and Anastasia Chisholm our Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss the up and coming elections in Iraq.
Iraq's elections due this Sunday, 10 October, will take place during a period of protracted economic crisis and considerable anti-government public sentiment, which has risen since the government's repression of protest movements in 2019. Strong security measures will be deployed on and around election day, while international observers and regional actors will closely watch electoral processes and results.
Shi'ite groups – including Iran-affiliated factions – are likely to continue to dominate Iraq's fractured political landscape. Likely flashpoints for domestic unrest include the maintenance of the unpopular elite-led status quo and allegations of fraud. In turn, these could delay timelines for government formation and undermine the implementation of political and economic reforms, driving policy risk for businesses and investors in the coming months.
Join our host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the upcoming Bundestag election.
Germany faces one of the most uncertain elections in the country's history due to the fragmentation of votes between mainstream and smaller parties. As of now, Chancellor Angela Merkel's party is set to come only second at the parliamentary election on 26 September due to the plummeting popularity of their candidate for Chancellor, Armin Laschet. The Socialist Democratic Party is expected to gain the most votes, however, it is highly likely that they will need to engage in lengthy coalition talks with the Greens, the business-friendly Free Democratic Party and maybe even the far-left Die Linke party to form a majority government. As such, Germany could see a three-party coalition for the first time, and a possible coalition including the SPD and the Greens could speed up the country's decarbonisation processes, increasing risks for carbon-heavy industries.
Join your host Alexander Parsons, our Senior Analyst along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst and Edie Lipton our Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the coup in Guinea.
The recent overthrow of President Alpha Conde renders Guinea the third country in the region to undergo a coup in the past year. While local partners wish to discourage the repeated use of this tactic, their capacity to effectively penalise coup leaders is constrained as responses are limited by the need to maintain regional stability, in the context of jihadist conflict in the Sahel.
Additionally, while coup leaders claim to represent the demands of a dissatisfied population, they clearly have specific political goals and efforts to maintain their own influence and access to resources may drive tensions with civilian groups seeking greater reform.
This week join your host Edward Johnson, Head of Global Analysis along with Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst and Alex Lord, our Europe & Eurasia Analyst to discuss the up and coming Russian elections.
Legislative elections will be held in Russia between 17 – 19 September, with the ruling United Russia highly likely to retain its political dominance. Despite the party's low approval ratings amid prolonged dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions, the government's use of incentives, targeted repression, and online voting will work in its favour.
Meanwhile, the absence of a clear and unifying opposition figure will ensure that the risk of mass protests is limited, though sporadic mass action cannot be ruled out entirely, should widespread electoral irregularities be reported. As such, policy continuity, greater protectionism of domestic IT businesses, and increasing intolerance of dissent are likely to become more pronounced after the election.
Join Sibylline CEO, Justin Crump, as he reflects on the state of global terrorism 20 years after 9/11 with three of our experts: Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, James Barth, North America Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst.
In this episode, the team discuss how the terror threat has evolved since 2001, with the significance of recent events in Afghanistan, the emerging risks of today, and from right-wing extremism to single-issue threat actors.
Our Lead Analyst for Global Risk, John Breen, joins Ignacio Ayala, Latin America Analyst and Isabelle Mallon, Associate Analyst for the Americas to discuss the impact of the crisis in Haiti on humanitarian workers, NGOs, and businesses on the ground. The team will analyse how a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace will deepen the country’s political and socio-economic woes, paving the way for the expansion of criminal organisations across the country.
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the unfolding crisis have dominated the global headlines in recent days. While the eventual fall of the civilian government in Kabul had been foreseen, the speed of the Taliban's advance and the capitulation of the Afghan National Army shocked the international community. As many foreign governments struggle in the chaotic evacuation operations, the Taliban continues to assert its authority, and seeks to bolster its political legitimacy and international recognition by pledging for an "inclusive Islamic government". However, many remain sceptical about the sincerity of the group's promises, dismissing them as a mere "PR campaign". Others are pondering what the return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan means for the country and the wider region.
In this week's podcast, join your host Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst along with Supriya Ravishankar, our South Asia Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, our Asia-Pacific Analyst to discuss the latest situation in Afghanistan and the possible political and security implications under a Taliban government.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 report has garnered significant attention since this week's publication, heralding a grim warning of a 'code red for humanity'. What do the findings of the report mean in practice for firms operating across Europe and Eurasia, and which regions will be most at risk?
Join Liana Semchuk, our Europe-Eurasia Lead Analyst, Louis Cox-Brusseau, Europe Analyst, and Alex Lord, Europe-Eurasia Analyst, for the key takeaways from the IPCC's 2021 report.
Join your host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the ongoing tensions between Hungary, Poland and the European Commission.
Tensions increased recently as the Commission initiated legal proceedings against Hungary over a controversial anti-LGBTQI+ law. This comes as revelations from the Pegasus surveillance scandal suggested independent media and opposition figures in Hungary were overwhelmingly targeted by state surveillance.
Elsewhere in the Visegrad region, concerns remain over the independence of the judiciary in Poland and media freedoms in the Czech Republic, ensuring that tensions with Brussels are set to increase in the long term.
Join this week’s host, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst of the Americas, along with Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, and Rhiannon Phillips, Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss Tunisia's deepening political deadlock, which has recently come to a head, with President Kais Saied dismissing Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspending parliament.
The impact this governmental crisis has on the already stagnant policy will be significant, as Tunisia faces fresh waves of Covid-19 infections and mounting socio-economic strife. President Saied's actions could also threaten Tunisia's democracy, with the 2014 constitution at the heart of the crisis.
On 9 July violent protests broke out across Kwa-Zulu Natal, quickly spreading to Gauteng, resulting in widespread looting and arson, with clashes resulting in hundreds of deaths. Following the deployment of 25,000 soldiers, calm was eventually restored, but not before an estimated ZAR 50 billion in damages was caused, impacting around 40,000 businesses. While the initial flashpoint may have been the arrest of former president Jacob Zuma, economic unrest was the key factor impacting the intensity and characteristics of the unrest. This week's podcast discusses the events and drivers around the unrest and the long term implications this may have on the country's economic health with your host Alexander Parsons, along with Sub Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Edie Lipton, Associate Sub Saharan Africa Analyst.
US President Joe Biden is expecting a 45-day update on a US investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The investigation, led by the US intelligence services, is drawing widespread media attention, with scientists, political scientists and health experts weighing in on the polarising hypothesis of whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus may have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.
While evidence to support the lab leak theory remains purely circumstantial, the US investigation comes amid strained relations between Beijing and Washington, particularly as the Biden Administration considers further actions in response to Beijing’s crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, and its treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.
How may Washington's virus origin investigation shape the direction of travel for already fraught Sino-US relations? With Covid-19 still affecting much of the world, how will the ongoing feud between the two world's largest economies affect our response to this and future pandemics?
Join your host Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline, along with Guo Yu, our Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific and resident China expert, James Hannan, our Americas Analyst and avid Covid-watcher, and John Breen, Lead Analyst for Global Risks.
With less than 15 days to go to the start of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, the Japanese capital has been placed under a fourth state of emergency amid a fresh surge of Covid-19 infections. The ever-changing pandemic situation has characterised the uncertainty that has shrouded this flagship sporting event, having been already postponed once and attracted notable opposition among the Japanese public. This week's podcast discusses the political and security dynamic concerning the upcoming Tokyo Olympics with your host, Amy Reynolds, along with Hans Horan, Asia-Pacific Analyst and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Asia-Pacific Analyst.
In recent weeks, a car-bomb attack against an army base hosting US military personnel and an apparent attempt to assassinate President Iván Duque Márquez have raised concerns over the security environment in Colombia. Meanwhile, the country has also witnessed a surge in violent protests in Bogotá and several other cities. In this week's podcast, we discuss the latest security situation in Colombia and assess how it may pan out heading into 2022.
The first round of regional elections in France has yielded startling results, with both the far-right under Marine Le Pen and the ruling party of President Emmanuel Macron seeing significant setbacks nationwide as traditional left- and right-wing parties surge forward. In our latest podcast, Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst, is joined by Louis Cox-Brusseau, Europe Analyst, and Alex Lord, Europe-Eurasia Analyst. Together they assess the preliminary results of the French regional elections, ahead of an electoral runoff next week which is likely to prefigure a close race in the French presidential elections in 2022.
In our latest podcast, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst for the Americas is joined by Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa and James Hannan, Associate Analyst for Americas, to discuss the presidential elections in Iran.
Iranian elections held on 18 June are almost certain to return a hard-line president, allowing hardliners and conservatives to consolidate their power over the country and its institutions. This podcast explores how the polls might affect Iran's internal affairs and ongoing nuclear talks with the other JCPOA signatories and wider regional dynamics.
In our latest podcast, Philip Riding, Middle East and Africa Lead Analyst is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia Pacific, to discuss the G7 Summit in Cornwall.
Leaders of the world's wealthiest economies and major democratic powers (including the EU) have gathered at Cornish seaside town of St. Ives for the 47th summit, which kicks off today. The three-day meeting – US President Joe Biden’s first official foreign trip since his inauguration in January – represents one of the most high-profile events in diplomacy to be held in person since the start of the pandemic. The summit, therefore, serves as an opportunity for the leading advanced economies to discuss important plans and strategy that will undoubtedly have a lasting impact on the post-pandemic world order.
The federal elections on 6 June will be the second-largest electoral event in Mexico’s history. Over 20,000 positions will be elected, including the entire lower chamber of the 500-seat Congress, 15 state governors, 30 State congresses, and the authorities of around 1,900 municipalities. Together with Ignacio Ayala, Lat-Am Intelligence Analyst, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst, the Americas, and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Analyst, Asia Pacific, discuss the significance of the vote, the recent surge of political violence as well as what the likely outlook of Mexico’s political landscape means for business.
The dual crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse of oil prices have driven significant policy changes amongst many major energy exporters across the Middle East and Africa as governments are forced to address deficiencies in existing industrial models and spending habits. In this podcast Phillip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, is joined by Benedict Manzin, Sub Saharan Africa Analyst, and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst, as they explore common trends, areas of divergence and public responses, with its capacity to stall reform and disrupt the operating environment.
The latest conflict in Gaza has drawn much international attention, as has the prospect of a ceasefire, which materialised this morning. In our latest podcast, Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Guo (Hugo) Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst. Together they unpack the last week’s events, why the end of fighting will yield little progress beyond the short term and the political impact of the conflict in Israel.
The ransomware attack on US energy firm Colonial Pipeline last week caused significant disruptions to fuel delivery on the East Coast, as the firm suspended most of its operations in a bid to stem the spread of malware. With Colonial pipeline transporting nearly half of US East Coast's fuel supply, this incident highlights the growing threat that cyber attacks pose to critical infrastructure. Our latest analysis examines how this activity compares with the perpetrators' (the DarkSide operators) previous activity and what Colonial Pipeline and Washington's response towards this incident could mean for America's energy security.
This analysis was made prior to the 12 May announcement that Colonial Pipeline was restarting some of its services. Nevertheless, the analysis in the podcast will still remain relevant until the pipeline is fully functional later this week.
In this week's podcast Jonathan Dunbar, EMEA Director, is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead APAC Analyst, and John Harley Breen, Lead Global Risks Analyst, to discuss the British-led naval deployment to Asia amid heightened regional tensions. The UK’s new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth recently deployed as part of a larger naval strike group to the Indo-Pacific in her inaugural operational deployment. The carrier, armed with 5th generation multirole F-35B jets of the Royal Air Force (RAF) and United States Marine Corps (USMC), along with other rotary wing aircraft and a detachment of Royal Marines, will visit 40 countries, including India, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea, as part of this 28-week mission. The strike group will also conduct joint exercises with the US and many allies along its voyage. The power-projecting deployment comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the region, underpinned by the strategic rivalry between China and the US.
In this week’s podcast Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Eloise Scott, Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, to discuss the ongoing financial and socio-economic crises in Lebanon. Warnings from officials of severe difficulties in funding imports and subsidies looks to exacerbate the situation, potentially triggering domestic unrest. The most significant obstacle to the country's recovery appears to be political deadlock and deepening sectarian strife, as blocs appear to be preparing for the worst.
The Covid-19 pandemic has forced many businesses across the globe to rely more on cloud computing and third-party technology to support remote working arrangements. In this week's podcast, Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager, is joined by Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst, and Guo Yu, lead ASPAC Analyst, to unpack how this increased inter-connectivity has also provided cyber threat actors with a myriad of new avenues through which to target businesses. The most notable of these vectors has been the targeting of software supply chains, which is best exemplified by the Russia-led SolarWinds attack that resulted in the compromise of nine US government agencies and around 100 private companies. With the pandemic still raging on around the world, many firms will continue their heavy reliance on third-party technology as a means to ensure operational continuity. Corporate risk exposure to cyber security threats enabled by software supply chains is only expected to grow.
In this week's episode, EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar discusses the launch of Sibylline's latest report, the Global Extremism Quarterly, with Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Ben Manzin and James Barth, our North America Analyst. They discuss the contents of the report and the impetus for creating it, detailing the unprecedented pace of change in the threat landscape of extremism. They also dive into one of the themes discussed in this quarter's report and assess the latest developments in the Sahel, where extremist groups continue to increase their footprint throughout the wider region. Continued development of their position in Burkina Faso and Mali threatens to create a platform from which they can increase incursions into West African states. However, their focus has thus far remained on securing rural areas rather than targeting cities where businesses are primarily located.
This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a military clash between the two countries. The developments mark a notable deterioration in the region's security environment, but an outright Russian military invasion of Ukraine is currently deemed unlikely. Nevertheless, further provocations and an escalation in hostilities along the current line of contact in the Donbas is likely in the short term.
In this week’s podcast Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Benedict Manzin, Africa Analyst, discuss the recent attack on Palma, Mozambique, which brought a temporary halt to the development of the country’s natural gas industry. While this project, which is Africa's largest single investment, has been periodically disrupted by growing insecurity over the last two years, the attack last week threatened the lives of dozens of expat contractors. There is now growing consensus among the international community about the need to assist the Mozambican government, but this is not a guarantee that security will improve for the energy sector in the months ahead.
Eloise Scott, Analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Philip Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss the recent developments and progress in Israel and Libya
Israel goes to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years. The result is too close to call and will likely result in another round of messy coalition negotiations, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to retain the premiership and stave off his corruption trial. However, if a new administration manages to pass a budget, business could benefit from greater certainty and a more substantive post-Covid recovery package.
Elsewhere in the Mediterranean, Libya has seen recent progress towards having its first functional government in a decade. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah's cabinet was sworn in this week and is now responsible for laying the groundwork for elections in December. Challenges remain however, especially around the presence of foreign forces in the country and threats to oil and gas infrastructure.
Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe & Eurasia, and James Barth, Analyst for North America, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss tensions between the US and Russia increasing since Joe Biden became president of the United States. The risk of US sanctions against Russia expanding remains elevated in the months ahead as bipartisan pressure on Biden to take a tougher stance on Russia mounts. However, Washington may be forced to make compromises on its Russia stance concerning key infrastructural projects such as Nord Stream 2 as the Biden administration seeks to mend ties with Europe, particularly Germany. Further strains to the US / EU-Russia relationship will also come from Covid-19 vaccine disinformation allegations, cyber threats, and Washington's promotion of democracy in Eastern Europe.
This week’s podcast focuses on the recently declassified U.S. intelligence report confirming that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Eloise Scott, analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Phil Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline Americas Greg Hoobler, to discuss the implications of the report for Western and regional governments dealing with Saudi Arabia, as well as the outlook for Western business operations in the Kingdom.
This week’s podcast is hosted by Insight Team Manager Edward Johnson, featuring Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they unpack Myanmar's post-coup political and security risk landscape, as well as the event's implications to the wider region. As tensions continue to escalate driven by the deaths of three protesters last weekend and the appearance of a security force crackdown, the risk of violence and further unrest persists. The outlook, for what was previously considered a fledgling democratic state with untapped investment potential, is increasingly ominous.
In this week’s podcast Sibylline’s Deputy Insight Manager Amy Reynolds is joined by Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they analyse the consequences of Beijing charging Chinese-born Australian journalist Cheng Lei with supplying state secrets overseas. The former presenter of the Chinese state-run English-language channel CGTN was first detained in August 2020. Cheng's detention and subsequent criminal charges are framed against the backdrop of a deepening fracture in China-Australia relations. Cheng's arrest, together with a number of other foreign nationals currently under detention, has raised concerns about the risk of politicised justice for employees of foreign entities operating in China.
In this week's podcast, Sibylline’s Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by Konrad Petraitis, embedded intelligence analyst. Their conversation touches on recent speculation surrounding President Bolsonaro's impeachment, followed by an overview of the challenges ahead of the country's general election and possible cabinet infighting that might upset markets.
Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by John Breen, Lead Analyst of the Global Risk Team (GRT), and James Hannan, a GRT Analyst, for a discussion on vaccine distribution challenges in Europe. Their conversation unpacks the recent EU vaccine export row with the UK and how it amplified political tensions in Northern Ireland, followed by an overview of the logistical challenges facing European and global immunisation efforts and the disruptions this could have for business operations.
Sibylline’s Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst, for a discussion on the recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops over disputed border areas in northern Sikkim. Their conversation addresses conflicting accounts between official statements and media reports, and the potential impact to business operations.
Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst, to discuss the recent developments in the Gulf and how deeper formal ties with Israel and reconciliation in the Qatar blockade provide opportunities for businesses in the region in 2021. They also examine the more notable improvements in the business environment which will be tempered by ongoing Covid-19 disruption, deep-rooted ideological differences, and potential fallout between the new US administration's policies towards, and the trajectory of its relations with, Iran.
Sibylline Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst, Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe, and Hugo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, for a discussion based on events and implications associated with the right-wing insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. This discussion will include important considerations from both the US domestic perspective and international eyes.
Join our host Justin Crump, Sibylline’s CEO, for the second half of the Disinformation Misinformation Podcast. This week, Justin is joined by organisational psychologist, speaker and author Dr Nicole Lipkin. Dr Lipkin is the CEO of Equilibria Leadership Consulting & Equilibria and the Founder of the Young Leader Project & HeyKiddo™.
In this episode Dr Lipkin and Justin discuss conspiracy theories, biases, and perceptions, looking at their effect on our society, beliefs, and behaviours. They also discuss the need for critical thinking to cut through the noise and sniff out the truth. But is this skill, clearly so important for analysts, something we are generally losing...?
This week Justin Crump, Sibylline’s CEO, is joined by guest speaker Lisa Kaplan to discuss the realms of conspiracy theories and misinformation. Lisa is the Founder and CEO of Alethea Group, an organization that identifies and mitigates disinformation operations for political campaigns and companies, and so shares some great perspectives on this growing challenge for security teams.
Justin is also joined by our in-house team: Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst; Alex Lord, Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Philip Riding, EMEA Lead Analyst; and Benedict Manzin, Middle East and Africa Analyst. Global topics include the escalating conflict in Ethiopia and its wider impacts on East Africa, as well as the latest on challenges within the EU as it struggles to pass necessary budget legislation. Of course, in that context we also can’t stay away from the dreaded B word...!
Join Sibylline’s Greg Hoobler as he hosts this week’s podcast with Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Alex Lord, Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager; and James Barth, North America Analyst.
Our speakers revisit the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict and explore whether the surprisingly quiet post-election period represents a calm before the storm or an over-estimation of election related unrest in the US…
Join Sibylline's CEO, Justin Crump, as he hosts this week's podcast with Phil Riding, Lead EMEA Analyst; Eloise Scott, MENA Analyst; Dr Hugo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst; and Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst. Our speakers examine Israeli-Arab relations and the potential impact of the US election and China's new socio-economic strategy and its implications on cyber security. Amy Reynolds, our Deputy Insight Manager, also joins to discuss some of the other key issues to watch in the coming weeks. There is more than one election taking place…
Listen to our latest podcast hosted by Greg Hoobler, Sibylline’s Americas Director, who is joined by Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe and Eurasia, Hedda Halvorsen, Europe Analyst, and Phil Riding, our Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Turkey. They discuss tensions between France, Turkey and the wider Muslim world. The recent attack in Nice took place within hours of the initial recording, Sibylline’s analytical team reacted and recorded a supplementary section to ensure we provide the most up to date and accurate insight for decision-makers to act on.
Join Sibylline's CEO, Justin Crump, as he hosts this edition’s discussion with Dr Hugo Yu and Liana Semchuk. Our speakers identify the latest developments and trigger points surrounding North Korea's weapons development; the ongoing domestic and international conflicts in Belarus and Armenia-Azerbaijan; the implications of the Kyrgyz protests; and Edward Johnson, our Insight Manager, also joins to discuss some of the other key issues to watch in the coming weeks. Did someone mention a US election…?
Our US-based Director, Greg Hoobler, leads a conversation examining lessons for how security and intelligence leaders can continue to position themselves, their teams, and their organizations to successfully navigate the many challenges in this COVID-era. Erika Weisbrod, Corey Vitello, and Erik Antons lend their collective experience and wisdom, yielding insights into how organizations can improve their resilience, redefine their approaches to travel security management, and properly use intelligence to not only mitigate risk but also seize upon opportunity.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Amid the ongoing discussions surrounding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Europe, we take a look at some of the questions being asked. Split across three sessions, our podcast begins by looking at the current situation in Europe. Our second session considers the the social and economic impacts of the pandemic, drawing out the likely trends to emerge from them. We conclude with the final session covering some of the threats and issues that confronted Europe prior to the emergence of the virus and discuss how these are likely to evolve under the pandemic and into the longer-term.
To find the first session ‘Where does Europe currently stand and what challenges will it face in the coming weeks?’ start at 0.00.
To find the second session ‘What are the implications of the longer-term social and economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic?’ skip to 13.00.
To find the third session ‘How are Europe's pre-existing threats and issues likely to evolve amid the pandemic and beyond?’ skip to 23.00.
Our COO Tamara Makarenko has a conversation with leading financial crime experts Samantha Sheen and Payal Patel about the impact COVID is having on financial crime. Their discussion covers why financial crime is ‘surviving’ lockdown, new financial crime trends, the regulatory response, and how companies can safeguard themselves. The podcast ultimately outlines a few ‘Golden Rules’ of how we can build our resilience to this unfolding financial crime environment.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Three renown global security leaders share their insights on how to be prepared to emerge from the disruption of COVID, identifying what needs to be rebuilt, the increasing importance of an intelligence-driven approach to corporate security, the “Spring Training” model for recovery, and why empathy is the cornerstone for leaders shepherding their teams amidst this crisis. Our US-based Director, Greg Hoobler, moderates this conversation with Paul Moxness, Mark Sanna, and Rich Davis.
Do you want to know about squiggle theory, why W matters to U, the VERUCA world, why Belarus matters, and why you’ll be saying goodbye to business class? Tune in and tune out to our latest podcast, where CEO Justin Crump discusses the shape of the world after Covid with our top Analysts, Ed Johnson and Amy Reynolds.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 28 February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan relaxed Turkey's border controls with EU member states Greece and Bulgaria, paving the way for large numbers of migrants and refugees to journey to Europe. Escalating conflict levels in Syria between Turkey and Russia-backed Syrian government forces have raised concerns of a repeat of the 2015 European migrant crisis, with policy uncertainty likely over the coming months.
Key points include:
- Turkish policy driven by domestic pressures as well as escalating conflict levels in Syria
- Likely disruption for supply chains and travel due to enhanced border controls
- EU remains divided on approach to Turkish policy and ways to mitigate migration crisis
Locust swarms are devasting agriculture across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, with some communities reporting 100% crop loss and Somalia announcing a state of emergency. These swarms are now spreading into South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and most recently into the Democratic Republic of Congo. This will significantly elevate threats to food security in a region where in October 2019 aid agencies recorded 13 million people facing critical levels of hunger, likely driving domestic unrest, particularly in Ethiopia ahead of elections in August.
Key points include:
- The impact of climatic conditions on the growth of locust swarms
- The trajectory of the development of the current swarms
- The impact on food security, inflation and domestic unrest
Last year's unprecedented surge in environmental activism forced regulators to respond. The unprecedented amount of attention on climate and sustainability also shifted the focus of investors and attracted more attention to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) related topics, with the “environmental” component in particular, likely to remain a dominant trend in 2020 and beyond. A wide range of sectors are set to be affected moving forward as regulators, investors, and civil society grow increasingly more concerned with environmental activism and other ESG related issues. As traditional forms of demonstrations are set to continue targeting an increasingly broader set of industries from a wider range of activists, businesses should expect to see a further increase in discussions and activism around sustainability.
Key Points
- How does the surge in climate activism facilitate Environmental Social and Governance (ESG) agenda
- Which activists group are set to dominate the stage in 2020 and what tactics they are likely to employ
- What changes are regulators and judicial bodies likely to take in response to growing activism
- What should businesses expect
The operating environment for US and other foreign firms in China will not change significantly following the implementation of the ‘phase one’ Sino-US trade deal on 14 February. While the agreement will bring a reprieve for companies operating in some of the sectors that have been affected by the tariffs, challenges such as IP theft, forced technology transfers, and anti-competitive state subsidies for domestic firms will endure for the foreseeable future.
Key points include:
- Main provisions of the ‘phase one’ deal
- Prospects for a second deal
- Beijing’s goals of self-sufficiency and technological ascendancy
The Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has proven to be extremely disruptive in China and internationally as authorities struggle to contain the spread of the infection. As governments respond with widespread travel restrictions, and production chains are interrupted, economic growth in China is likely to be significantly impacted. With China's importance to the global economy at an all-time high, the knock-on impact will be amplified.
Key Points
- What are the prospects for the continued spread of the coronavirus
- How have the authorities responded to the outbreak
- What will be the impact on firms
Turkey's focus on securing access to lucrative natural gas fields is driving a more aggressive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, including in the ongoing Libya conflict. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is pressing on with illegal drilling around Cyprus, and in December signed a controversial maritime deal with Libya. Escalating tensions between Turkey and a range of international actors over the issue are therefore increasingly likely to result in maritime disruption.
Key points include:
- What is driving Turkish foreign policy
- Recent developments including Turkish cyber attacks
- Threat to the maritime sector
On 15 January, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's government resigned after President Vladimir Putin proposed constitutional reforms that would give more power to various government bodies – whilst ensuring that Russia remains a presidential republic. A career technocrat and former head of Federal Tax Service (FTS) Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as new prime minister same day, in what constitutes a power reshuffle designed to ensure long-term stability of Putin's regime and prepare the ground for the transition of power in 2024 and beyond.
On 5 January, Venezuela tumbled in a new political crisis when the leadership of the Venezuela’s National Assembly was challenged by two rival speakers: opposition leader Juan Guaidó, backed by the international community, and dissident opposition lawmaker Luis Parra, supported by President Nicolás Maduro and Russia. As the political standoff continues in the coming months, the deepening of the economic and humanitarian crisis will exacerbate tensions with neighbouring Colombia.
Key points include:
- The latest political developments in Venezuela and their domestic implications
- The impact of Venezuela’s political crisis on Colombia
- Our predictions for Venezuela and its bilateral relation with Colombia
Anti-government and anti-China protests have been ongoing in Hong Kong since early June and show no sign of abating. While the majority of the demonstrators have been protesting peacefully, there has been violence on the margins, with the use of water cannon and petrol bombs posing elevated incidental risks to people and property in the vicinity. China's National Day on 1 October threatens an escalation in the violence and disruption, as the hardline demonstrators seek to embarrass Beijing as it celebrates the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic.
Key points include: • The tactical manifestation of the protest movement. • Direct threats to businesses operating in the territory. • Our predictions for National Day and longer-term forecast.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 3 June, the governing Transitional Military Council opted to utilise force to disperse protesters who had been gathered in central Khartoum since the fall of former president Omar al-Bashir. In doing so they indicated their commitment to the protection of their assets and the retention of their power over Sudan. As such, the resumption of negotiations is unlikely to result in meaningful change, increasing the likelihood of further protest action and enduring instability through the coming months.
Key points include:
- Explanation of why negotiations initially broke down.
- The ability of foreign powers to influence negotiations.
- The trajectory of growing division within the protest movement.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 16 May, the Chinese government announced that they have formally arrested two Canadian nationals – Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor – who have been detained for over five months, on charges of violating state secrets. This marks the latest development in the highly politicised cases of Kovrig, Spavor and Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou, which have led to an atmosphere of elevated tensions between China and Canada in recent months. As Beijing seeks to exert pressure on Ottawa, Canadian companies operating in China are facings risks ranging from arbitrary detentions of staff to enhanced inspections and customs delays.
Key points include:
- The latest development in the cases of Meng, Kovrig and Spavor
- The impact of Beijing’s economic pressure campaign on Canadian companies
- The likely trajectory of this situation and flashpoints for related risks
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Since the removal of President Omar al-Bashir on 11 April, protests have continued, with tensions remaining elevated between civilians demanding meaningful reform and a transitional military council attempting to retain executive control of the state.
Key points include:
- The formation of a movement to demand a transition to civilian rule
- The objectives of the Transitional Military Council
- The trajectory of growing internal division and its impact on government stability and policy risk
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 21 April, suicide bombers killed at least 359 people and injured more than 500 at churches and hotels across Sri Lanka. The government has said that a local Islamist group carried out the attacks with the assistance of foreign jihadists, while Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility. Key points include: * Who may have been behind the attacks * Possible motivations for the bombings * Potential local and regional security implications following the attacks
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
10 April marked three months since opposition leader Juan Guaidó declared himself as Venezuela’s interim president following the start of President Nicolas Maduro’s highly contested second term in office on 10 January. Despite Guaidó enjoying strong domestic support and backing from the EU, US and the majority of Latin America governments, Maduro has been able to remain in power.
Key points include:
- The government’s recent crackdown on the opposition
- Possible scenarios in Venezuela over the coming months
- Factors that would herald an escalation of the current situation
- Key triggers and tripwires that will shape the next phase of the Venezuelan crisis
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 2 April, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika resigned from office, leaving Algeria’s political future uncertain. This was the culmination of nearly two months of protests, which look unlikely to subside as the establishment seeks to retain power. The concessions to demonstrators have encouraged demands for substantive constitutional reforms, which the military and political elite may be unwilling to grant. Infighting within the establishment will directly impact business operations.
Key points include:
- The developments that caused Bouteflika’s resignation
- The political ramifications of his departure
- Likely impact on business
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 9 April, Israel will hold general elections, pitting incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against main rival Benny Gantz. Polling indicates this will be a closely fought contest, with a number of potential outcomes. This is an election where policy has been overshadowed by personalities, not least due to Netanyahu’s impending indictment on charges of corruption.
Key points include:
- The main candidates to be the next Prime Minister, their policies and chances of success
- Potential electoral outcomes in the Knesset, where neither candidate has an easy route to a majority
- Likely impact on the business environment in the event of a victory for Gantz or Natanyahu
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 21 March, the European Council granted Prime Minister Theresa May a delay to the UK's departure date from the EU until 12 April, with a potential extension until 22 May. This is significantly shorter than the 30 June delay which May asked for, highlighting the growing pressure on the prime minister and an increasing likelihood of a 'no deal' Brexit.
Key points include:
- The plausibility of the Withdrawal Treaty passing in an upcoming vote in the UK parliament
- The prospects of a parliamentary breakdown and/or a general election
- The likelihood, indicators, and immediate impacts of a 'no deal' scenario
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 31 March, Ukraine will hold presidential elections, with the race currently too close to call. Incumbent Petro Poroshenko, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy are leading the polls with a second round likely. This podcast will assess the key issues of the campaign and determine the impact of the uncertainty surrounding the election's outcome.
Key points include:
- Direction of the Donbas conflict over 2019
- Scope for reform beyond the elections
- Russia's response to the uncertain election outcome
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
The 14 February suicide bomb attack on Indian paramilitary troops prompted an extended fallout between Islamabad and New Delhi with a series of retaliatory actions raising fears of a broader conflict. This podcast will examine the current status of India-Pakistan relations and likelihood of escalation to broader confrontational scenarios.
Key points include:
- Context of the war in Kashmir
- Current status of India-Pakistan relations
- Key triggers of a wider conflict
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Ahead of European Parliament elections in May 2019 where mainstream centrist factions are set to lose their absolute majority for the first time in EU history, we assess policy risks and operational implications of the election.
Key points include:
- Implications for the policies and configuration of the new European Commission
- Consequences for policy risk in the European Union
- Operational impacts on the level of individual states
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 31 January, France, Germany and the UK launched a special purpose vehicle to facilitate trade between the EU and Iran. The vehicle, termed the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) will initially be applicable for transactions involving humanitarian aid, food and pharmaceuticals, with the potential to extend to cover other industries in the coming months. Here we discuss the drivers behind INSTEX and its implications on the regional and business environment both in Europe and the Middle East.
Key points include:
- How and why INSTEX was introduced and current EU policy towards Iran
- Implications for Iran’s socio-economic health and domestic stability
- The likely trajectory of EU-Iranian relations amid renewed US-imposed sanctions
- The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) amid rising regional tensions
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Since the announcement of the US’ intended military withdrawal in Syria, regional stakeholders have intensified their political wrangling over influence and power in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow on 23 January, where questions over the future of a planned security zone in Idlib dominated the discussion.
Key points include:
- The changing nature of the Syrian conflict and how this may develop throughout the coming year
- Regional and international ramifications of persistent divisions over the conflict
- The likely trajectory for Syrian reconstruction throughout the coming year amid the prospects of escalation
- Long-term implications for businesses seeking to re-engage with Syria
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
The 17 January warnings made by Chinese Ambassador to Canada Lu Shaye exacerbated the deterioration in relations between the two countries. The incident adds to the recent attention given to relations between the US, Canada, and China.
In this podcast we break down the areas of concern between the countries into three different categories: the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and resulting fallout, ongoing Sino-American trade negotiations, and US-driven national security concerns regarding Chinese companies. After analysing these three categories, we give our predictions on how they will evolve, and highlight associated risks to Canadian and American companies and individuals.
Key points include:
- Analysis of the relationship between the scrutiny of Huawei, ongoing trade negotiations, and concerns over espionage and intellectual property theft
- Implications for US and Canadian travelers and operations in the China
- Predictions regarding US government policy and oversight regarding Chinese firms in the coming months
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
The 25 November seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait has further exacerbated tensions between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine implementing martial law and banning Russians from entering the country.
In this podcast we look at how these events are shaping the operating environment ahead of the 31 March presidential election and look at the risks of further disruption, the threat to government stability, and impacts on regional business operations.
Key points include:
- Analysis of the Azov incident and subsequent Ukrainian reactions
- The implications of the measures in Ukraine and the region
- A look ahead to Ukraine’s elections and potential flashpoints.
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 4 December, Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced a 6-month suspension of the fuel tax and other appeasing measures in response to recent violent unrest in France. We expect this will help reduce the numbers of demonstrators in the streets, though further disruption and elevated property damage risks are likely to endure.
Key points include:
- Analysis of key actors and agendas in the recent protests
- Assessment of the government response and its consequences
- Implications for the long-term unrest risks in France
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Sri Lanka’s ongoing political deadlock and recent anti-blasphemy protests in Pakistan underscore the willingness of powerful groups and individuals to exploit religious fault lines in order to further a political agenda. In this podcast we examine the recent evolution of this trend in South Asia and explore the affiliated security risks.
Key points include:
- The presence of more hard-line religious sentiment in Pakistan
- The resurgence of ethno-religious tensions in Sri Lanka
- The likelihood of Hindu Nationalism increasing ahead of India’s 2019 elections
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Following Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 29 October announcement that she will not stand for re-election as CDU party leader in the upcoming vote, we look at her most likely successors and analyse the long-term impacts on the political and economic situation in Germany and the European Union.
Key points include:
- Analysis of the upcoming CDU leadership election
- Drivers of the main political dynamics in Germany
- Viability of the Merkel cabinet in 2019 and beyond
- Implications for EU economic stability and migration cooperation
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Following on from the 27 October summit in Istanbul that featured Turkish, Russian, French and German leadership this podcast asks what is next for the Syrian conflict.We assess the meeting itself and viability of the Idlib ceasefire, looking at the roles of Turkey, Iran and Russia in the future of the conflict and what this means for potential short and long term economic and security developments both in Syria and the wider region.
Key Points Include:
- What the Idlib ceasefire means for the principle participants
- The role of Russia, Iran and Turkey in the future of the Syrian conflict
- Scope for an enduring diplomatic solution and possible reconstruction
- The economic opportunities and impact on regional supply chains of the current ceasefire
Since 2 October, Saudi Arabia has experienced significant international criticism over the death of popular journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. On 23 October, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s willingness to cooperate with the investigation, whilst pressuring Riyadh for more transparency regarding several key features about the case.
In this podcast we discuss the short and medium term ramifications from a regional and international perspective.
Key points include:
- An overview of the situation and analysis of Erdogan’s speech
- Political implications for Saudi-Turkish-US relations
- Implications for commercial interests in Saudi Arabia and Turkey
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 10 October, Mozambique held local elections. Despite concerns of a repetition of the violence of 2014’s polls, the campaign and polling day were broadly peaceful save for sporadic incidents of unrest.
In this podcast we analyse these developments, and look at what they mean for the future of the peace process and other challenges going forward.
Key points include:
• How the election evolved • How the election may affect the peace process • The broader outlook for Mozambique
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Brazil goes to the polling booths on 7 October in a General Election. Right wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro and Workers’ Party nomination Fernando Haddad have a strong lead in sentiment polls, and a second round vote is broadly anticipated on 28 October. In this podcast we look at the potential ultimate outcomes and what they would mean for the future of Brazil’s security and operating environment.
Key points include:
- Immediate term issues around polling day
- Likely outcomes of round one
- Possible outcomes of round two
- What a Haddad presidency might look like
- What a Bolsonaro presidency might look like
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is highly likely to win tomorrow’s party leadership contest, thus enabling him to retain the premiership for a third and final term.
In this podcast, we discuss what such an outcome will mean for Japan’s economic, foreign and defence policy, and how this will impact Japan’s socio-economic health as well as the broader regional environment.
Key points include:
- Why Abe’s victory seems so certain
- The challenges to Abe’s attempts at economic reform
- A likely continuation in Japan’s pragmatic foreign policy
- Anticipated resistance to attempted constitutional change
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
With Russia’s Vostok military exercises taking place this week - on the grandest scale since the Cold War era and involving China for the first time – we discuss the domestic significance as well as the evolving relationship between Moscow and Beijing. With signs of greater cooperation, as well as numerous potential points of contention, we consider how best to interpret the relationship and how it is likely to progress.
Key points include:
- Russia’s domestic economic problems
- Increasingly strained relations between both China and Russia and the West
- How pragmatism and mutual economic benefits are driving cooperation
- Competition in Eurasia as a potential source of conflict
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
The 31 August killing of separatist leader Aleksander Zakharchenko in Donetsk threatens to elicit short term instability in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv. Moscow will likely assert greater direct control over the Donetsk People’s Republic following the assassination with a refocusing of its Donbas strategy towards the reintegration of the separatist-held regions into Ukraine as it simultaneously seeks to influence upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections.
In this podcast we analyse possible motives behind Zakharchenko’s killing and assess the wider impact on Ukraine ahead of 2019’s election cycle.
Key points include:
- Why Zakharchenko’s killing matters in relation to resolution of the conflict
- The impact on Ukraine, with instability and polarisation likely to be exacerbated by Moscow as it seeks to impact Ukrainian presidential elections
- Possible motives and preparators of the assassination
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Over recent months, the tensions between the US and Turkey have escalated, notably in the form of bilateral trade sanctions.
In this podcast we look at why this is occurring and what the main drivers are, both superficially and under the surface. We identify that the harnessing of nationalist and even religious sentiment in this situation is causing popular anger towards the US within Turkey, as demonstrated by the recent drive-by shooting of the US embassy. We also look at the broader risks to the business environment in Turkey in the coming months.
Key points include:
- The latest iterations of reciprocal tensions
- Key drivers, internationally and from each side
- Predictions on how this will evolve over the coming months
- Red flags and indications of severe escalation
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Ahead of the 30 September referendum on the Macedonia name dispute deal – known as the Prespes Agreement – we discuss the underlying geopolitical, ethnic, and security aspects of the dispute and draw implications for the long-term operating environment.
Key points include:
- Social and political polarisation in Greece and Macedonia
- Projections relating to government stability in both states
- Assessment of areas at highest risk from civil unrest risks
- Involvement of regional actors, notably Russia and Turkey
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
In the aftermath of a series of anti-immigrant incidents and apparent racially-motivated assaults in Italy, we look at the political and social context of these attacks and draw out implications for businesses and foreign travellers across the country.
Key points include:
- Analysis of most recent attacks linked to the far-right scene in Italy
- Political and other drivers of such incidents
- Resilience of Italian society
- Long-term implications for the operating environment and sub-national variations
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
On 26 July initial exit polls indicated that Imran Khan, leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, had received the highest proportion of the vote in Pakistan’s general election. Here we look at the immediate response to his victory and assess what an Imran Khan premiership is likely to mean for Pakistan.
Key points include:
- The immediate reaction to the vote
- Security concerns
- The economic situation
- Pakistan’s foreign policy
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk
Iraq has recently been experiencing a new wave of protests and domestic unrest, especially in the southern part of the country. In recent days, widespread protests beginning in Basra have expanded across neighbouring cities, leading to transport disruptions and violent clashes between protestors and security forces. We discuss here the potential short and long term significance of these events, as well as the future trajectory for Iraqi politics and society amid rising anti-Iranian sentiment.
Key points include:
- The key drivers and causes of these protests and their socio-economic context
- The nature and characteristics of these events
- The likely trajectory of domestic unrest within Iraq, and its potential ramifications for a new government
We hope you enjoy the podcast and welcome questions and feedback. Please get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk