Landaas & Company Money Talk Podcast: Recent Episodes
Landaas and Company
Advisors on This Week’s Show Mike Hoelzl * John Sandstrom * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26691, up 1317 points or 5.2% * S&P 500 – 7758, up 268 points or 3.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 54037, up 1551 points or 3.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.55%, down 0.02 point
On this week’s episode:The US workforce has shed 2.1M workers since November 2025, yet unemployment rate is in decline, making for a very unique labor market situation
Bond vigilantes are doing the Fed’s dirty work
How a few hot stocks can make “twin” funds act like strangers
And more!
Advisors on This Week’s Show Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom * Jason Scuglik * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25374, up 398 points or 1.6% * S&P 500 – 7490, up 78 points or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 52485, up 538 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.75%, up 0.06 point
On this week’s episode:The team discusses current financial scams on the rise. Listen to learn what to look out for, how to handle a scammer and more! Then, check out our latest blog post for advice on what to do if you have been scammed.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kendall Bauer * Mike Hoelzl * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kendall Bauer * Mike Hoelzl * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25520, down 761 points or 2.9% * S&P 500 – 7458, down 118 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 52146, down 491 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.55%, down 0.02 point
On this week’s episode:* Build a balanced portfolio, don’t just chase the winners. * Earnings so far have been strong, and we’ll continue to learn about the effects of of AI spending. * AI might reshape how we think about password security. Two-factor authentication is important! * US Inflation is hotter than the rest of the world. * And more!
Advisors on This Week’s Show Art Rothschild * Steven Giles * Tom Booth * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26282, up 449 points or 1.7% * S&P 500 – 7575, up 92 points or 1.2% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 52637, down 263 points or 0.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.57%, up 0.08 point
On this week’s episode:* Reminder: Elon Musk is not your boyfriend. * We’re seeing some risks in concentrating your investments to one specific index. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Remember what Steve wrote in his article about diversification this week! * While AI is a near-term inflation problem, it may prove to be a long-term inflation solution. * Consumer credit plunged in May, elevated mortgage rates and record high prices resulted in fewer home sales in June, the labor market remains stable. * And more!
Advisors on This Week’s Show Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom * Tom Papenfus * Kyle Tetting * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25833, up 535 points or 2.1% * S&P 500 – 7483, up 129 points or 1.8% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 52900, up 1024 points or 2.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.49%, up 0.11 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Michael Hoelzl * Art Rothschild * Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * With Max Hoelzl * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Kyle and the team discuss a mid-year recap of the markets.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Michael Hoelzl * Art Rothschild * Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * With Max Hoelzl * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26518, up 629 points or 2.4% * S&P 500 – 7501, up 69 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 51656, up 362 points or 0.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.45%, down 0.03 point
With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key topics and insights:
- The Iran crisis reinforced the global economy’s resilience. Markets and industries adapted, countries with strategic energy reserves fared better, energy efficiency continues to improve, and AI-related investments helped support markets during the turmoil.
- The Fed signaled a more hawkish tone under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The dot plot points to possible future rate hikes, Warsh maintained his skepticism toward forward guidance, and new internal task forces suggest a broader review of how the Fed operates without threatening its independence.
- Corporate earnings expectations remain strong. After 29.3% earnings growth in the first quarter, analysts expect 22.9% growth in the second quarter and roughly 25% growth for full-year 2026.
- Economic data continue to point to moderate but positive growth. Retail sales exceeded expectations and consumer spending remained healthy, while mixed housing and leading indicator data suggest the economy is slowing but not stalling.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Michael Hoelzl * Art Rothschild * Kyle Tetting * With Max Hoelzl * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25889, up 179 points or 0.7% * S&P 500 – 7431, up 48 points or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 51202, up 336 points or 0.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.48%, down 0.06 point
With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key topics and insights:
- SpaceX IPO dominates headlines
- Inflation concerns continue to pressure rate-cut expectations
- Rising energy prices remain the biggest inflation driver and are beginning to push food prices higher again.
- Consumer sentiment highlights strain on lower-income households
- University of Michigan survey data show lower-income consumers have been hit hardest by higher gasoline prices.
- Geographic concerns should not automatically disqualify investment opportunities. European indexes are less concentrated in technology and communication stocks, offering diversification benefits.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Dave Sandstrom * Tom Pappenfus * Kyle Tetting * With Max Hoelzl * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25709, down 1263 points or 4.7% * S&P 500 – 7384, down 196 points or 2.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 50867, down 166 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.54%, up 0.08 point
With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key topics and insights:
-Markets still trading on the highs and lows of the AI trade
-Friday jobs report and continued inflamatory pressures saw 10Y treasury bump past 4.5% Friday, another threat to some growth stocks
-Space X IPO is close!
-Spending growth continues from consumers across all income brands, which brings a still persistent dislocation between spending and consumer sentiment.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Art Rothschild * Kendall Bauer * Kyle Tetting * Tom Booth * Engineered by Blake Miller*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26973, up 629 points or 2.4% * S&P 500 – 7580, up 107 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 51032, up 453 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.45%, down 0.11 point
Another day, another week, more records on Wall Street. With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key topics and insights:
-One could argue that stock prices are too high, but that doesn’t mean they can’t go higher
– Volatility remains in oil markets, but oil prices likely higher for longer
-Bond yields have climbed a bit
-Per the FBI, the rate of internet crimes is climbing, likely due to AI
-Trump Accounts are starting to become available and funding begins July 4, 2026
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * John Sandstrom * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26344, up 119 points or 0.5% * S&P 500 – 7473, up 65 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 50580, up 1054 points or 2.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.56%, down 0.04 point
A quick look into this week’s episode: As earnings season nears its completion, markets will be set adrift again.
The rising bond yields leave investors asking questions, but there are some benefits to higher interest rates.
The ability to launch an ETF is not terribly costly now, and the record number of ETFs created in 2025 is creating concerns in the marketplace.
And more! Listen below or wherever you find your favorite podcasts.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Adam Baley * Kendall Bauer * Steve Giles * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26225, down 22 points or 0.1% * S&P 500 – 7409, up 10 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49526, down 83 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.60%, up 0.23 point
Inflation is soaring, and confidence remains fragile. With an abundance of economic data this week we have a lot to cover. Here’s some of the key numbers:
-Consumer prices rose 3.8% year over year. Even stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation rose 2.8%, which is well above our comfort zone.
-Producer prices soared 6% year over year, driven by surging oil costs. Soaring producer prices renew inflation worries as businesses are likely to pass those higher costs on to consumers in the coming months.
-Retail sales rose .5% last month, though largely driven by higher gasoline prices. However, online shopping by consumers showed resilience.
-industrial production and Business Inventories rose in April, both showing stability in consumer demand.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Kendall Bauer * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 26247, up 1084 points or 4.3% * S&P 500 – 7399, up 153 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49609, down 19 points or 0.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.36%, down 0.01 point
Earnings Season and Investment InsightsInvestors remain focused on earnings and interest rates, with a marked shift in stock prices since the end of March reflecting increasing optimism about stocks more broadly. The S&P is experiencing one of its best earnings seasons in 20 years, with growth in the first quarter looking to exceed 28%.
New investment tools in the Exchange Traded Fund space continue to emerge chasing a variety of investment themes, but challenges remain as investment expense and trend-chasing obscure what’s right with what’s possible.
On the economic front, relative stability in the labor market belies broader concerns about the war and rising prices. The reminder remains: cautious balance remains a far more prudent path than trying to predict bursting bubbles.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Mike Hoelzl * Engineered by Jason Scuglik*
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 25119, up 282 points or 1.1% * S&P 500 – 7232, up 67 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49513, up 283 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.38%, up 0.07 point
In this week’s episode, we break down a pivotal moment for the Federal Reserve and what it means for markets going forward. With Jay Powell presiding over his final meeting as Fed Chair—while signaling he’ll remain on the Board amid an ongoing DOJ probe—we unpack the historical significance of the moment and the policy decisions that came with it. Rates held steady at 3.5%–3.75%, offering investors a sense of stability, but rising disagreement within the Fed reveals a more complicated picture beneath the surface.
Earnings season, meanwhile, is delivering both excitement and volatility. Standout performances from major names saw double-digit jumps following their reports. With trading volumes surging and sharp market reactions becoming the norm, investors are navigating a fast-moving landscape.
We also tackle the growing conversation about U.S. debt, which has now surpassed 100% of GDP. While this milestone raises long-term concerns about fiscal sustainability, we explain why it doesn’t necessarily signal an imminent crisis.
Finally, we round out the episode with key economic data releases. Consumer confidence showed modest improvement in April, with optimism in the labor market offsetting concerns about geopolitical tensions and rising gas prices. On the labor front, initial jobless claims dropped to their lowest level in over 50 years, reinforcing the strength of the job market and complicating the Fed’s fight against inflation. GDP growth came in at a solid 2.0% annualized rate for Q1, boosted in part by ongoing AI investment, while core PCE remains elevated around 3.2%, underscoring that inflation is still very much in play.
As always – if you have any questions about what we’ve discussed this week, give your advisor a call at 414-223-1099!
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 20-24, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayRetail sales rose 1.7% in March, driven by higher gas prices. The U.S. Census Bureau said 12 of 13 categories reported higher revenue than February. The exception was miscellaneous stores. Gas station sales jumped 15.5% in a month when prices rose 24%, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Excluding gas stations and car dealers, retail spending increased 0.6%. Sales at bars and restaurants rose 0.1%, following a 0.5% gain in February and two months of declines. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.8%, the most in a year. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the gross domestic product.
Prospects for home sellers brightened slightly in March with a bump up in the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said its index rose 1.5% from February but was down 1.1% from the year before. It stood more than 26% below the 2001 index base, which the Realtors consider to be a normal sales level. The association said the monthly increase in contract signings amid rising mortgage interest rates suggested pent-up demand. It cited a lack of inventory, especially for young, first-time buyers. Among the top 50 metro areas in the country, the Realtors said the Milwaukee-Waukesha area had a 13.5% one-year gain in pending sales, second only to the Kansas City area, at 15%.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose slightly for the third week in a row to remain 42% below its average since 1967. A Labor Department report suggested continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 1.9% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 2.9% below the same time in 2025.
FridayConsumer sentiment declined 6.6% in April as the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran continued to weigh down expectations for personal finances and the broader economy. Sentiment overall was nearly 5% lower than in April 2025 and near its low levels in mid-2022, when inflation reached 40-year highs. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.7% in the next year and to settle around 3.5% longer term. The latest Consumer Price Index showed inflation at 3.3% in March, well above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 24837, up 368 points or 1.5% * S&P 500 – 7165, up 39 points or 0.5% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49229, down 218 points or 0.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.31%, up 0.06 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 13-17, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayHousing sales stayed “sluggish” in March amid the weakest market in more than 30 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual sales rate dipped another 3.6% from February to 3.98 million, 1% lower than the year before. The trade group blamed elevated mortgage rates and continued lack of inventory. Another 300,000 to 500,000 houses would be needed in addition to the 1.4 million already for sale to reach the historic balance between supply and demand, the group said. The imbalance has resulted in price increases. The median sales price rose 1.6% from the year before to a record $408,880 in March. The Realtors estimated that rising prices have increased the typical homeowner’s wealth by $128,100 since 2000.
TuesdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in March, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. An 8.5% jump in energy prices, including nearly 16% in gasoline, accounted for the bulk of the rise in the cost of goods. The Producer Price Index advanced 4% from the year before, the steepest increase in more than three years. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from February and was up 3.6% from the year before, the most since November.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seond week in a row following five weeks of no increases. The indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 42% below the all-time average, dating to 1967, according to Labor Department data. Total claims for jobless benefits fell 4% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 3% off from where it was the year before.
Industrial production sank in March for the first time in four months as output from mines, utilities and manufacturing all declined. The Federal Reserve Board said overall production fell 0.5%, although it was up 2.4% through the first quarter and was 0.7% ahead of where it stood in March 2025. Factory production dropped 0.1% from February on broad declines led by automotive, which were partly offset by increased output from construction supplies as well as defense and space equipment. Industries’ capacity utilization rate fell slightly from February and stayed below its 54-year average, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 24468, up 1566 points or 6.8% * S&P 500 – 7126, up 309 points or 4.5% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49448, up 1531 points or 3.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.25%, down 0.08 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Kendall Bauer*
(with Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 6-10, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Commerce Department signaled ongoing weakness in demand for long-lasting manufactured products as orders for durable goods declined in February for the third month in a row and the fourth time in five months. A drop-off in requests for aircraft led a 1.4% dip in orders for the month, though commercial aircraft orders boosted the year-to-year totals to an 8.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.8% from January and were up 5.3% from February 2025. Core capital goods orders, considered a proxy for business investments, rose 0.6% for the month and increased 4.2% from the same time last year.
The Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit debt outstanding rose at an annual rate of 0.6% in February. That was down from paces of 2.3% and 7.4% in the preceding months and suggests a rising reluctance among consumers to carry credit card debt. Revolving credit debt has declined 1.8% from its peak in October 2024. The report showed total consumer debt growing at an annual 2.2% pace, including a 2.8% rise in non-revolving credit, which includes student loans and vehicle financing.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in six weeks but remained 42% below the long-term average. The measure is an ongoing indicator of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers. The Labor Department also reported that a little more than 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week. That’s down 1.3% from the week before and down 2.3% from the same time last year.
U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously reported at the end of 2025. The Bureau of Economic Analysts said gross domestic product rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 0.7% and a pace of 4.4% in the third quarter. The bureau said lower investment accounted for most of the revision, although consumer spending also slowed, and government spending declined sharply — partly tied to the shutdown in October and November.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis separately reported that consumer spending rose 0.5% in February. Meanwhile, personal income fell 0.1%, resulting in a drop in the personal savings rate. The same report showed the Federal Reserve Board’s favorite inflation gauge unchanged from January at 2.8%. The Fed’s long-term target for inflation broadly is 2%.
FridayHigher energy prices led a surge in inflation in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 0.9% from February and 3.3% from the year before — the biggest one-year increase since May 2024. Energy costs increased 12.5% in the last year, including a 21.2% spike in gasoline prices just in March. Core inflation, excluding food and energy products, rose 0.3% from February and 2.6% from the year before.
The war in Iran has taken a toll on Americans’ confidence in the economy and their financial outlooks. University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index dropped 11% in March and was 9% below where it stood a year ago. The university said sentiment fell broadly across demographic groups. Expectations for inflation reached the highest levels since a year ago, when they shot up amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22903, up 1024 points or 4.7% * S&P 500 – 6817, up 234 points or 3.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 47917, up 1412 points or 3.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.32%, up 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
In a special episode of the Money Talk Podcast, advisors Kyle Tetting, Art Rothschild and Adam Baley review the first year since the U.S. escalated tariffs and global trade wars.
They discuss corporate uncertainty and market volatility stirred by repeated shifts in tariffs, which have varied by country and remain in flux after the Supreme Court ruled that the justification for many of the changes was illegal.
Kyle, Art and Adam related what the developments have meant so far to long-term investors and what that suggests for managing portfolios and expectations amid disruptive global events.
Learn more
- Tracking the Impact of the Trump Tariffs & Trade War, from the Tax Foundation
- Market Reactions to Tariff Announcements, from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
- 2025 in rear-view: Lessons learned, by Kyle Tetting
- 2025 Investment Outlook Seminar, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- Markets surprise. What should investors do? by Steve Giles
- War: Added uncertainty, need for balance, from Kyle Tetting
- War in Ukraine reminds us of role for bonds, from Kyle Tetting
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 23-27, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayA drop in residential building in January led a slight decline in U.S. construction spending. The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% drop in overall building expenditures. Housing, which accounts for more than 40% of all construction spending, fell nearly 1%, while manufacturing — about 9% of expenditures — declined 2%. Compared to January 2025, overall construction spending rose 1%, with housing up 2% and manufacturing down 15%.
TuesdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics revised fourth quarter worker productivity growth to a 1.8% annual rate from a previous estimate of 2.8%. Output weakened to a 1.5% pace from an earlier estimate of 2.6%. In both estimates, the number of hours worked dropped 0.2%. Year to year, productivity rose 2.1% from 2024 to 2025. That was on pace with the current business cycle, which started at the end of 2019. The all-time average since 1947 is 2.2%. Productivity in the previous cycle, which included the Great Recession, averaged 1.5%.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row and the fifth time in six weeks. Data from the Labor Department shows the moving average down 42% from its historic average since 1967. The lack of layoffs suggests continued employer reluctance to let workers go in a tight job market. Total jobless claims dropped 1.9% from the week before to 2.1 million, which was 0.8% behind the same time in 2025.
FridayConsumer sentiment declined nearly 6% in March as the U.S.-Israel war in Iran lowered outlooks while raising expectations for inflation. Sentiment was 6.5% lower than in March 2025. Consumer forecasts for inflation rose the most since the announcement of tariff increases last April. Economists see sentiment as an indication of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumers expect effects from the war to be worse in the short run, but that’s subject to how long the war lasts and the impact of higher oil prices. About one-third of the survey came before the war began.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20948, down 699 points or 3.2% * S&P 500 – 6369, down 138 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 45167, down 410 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.44%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Tom Pappenfus * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 16-20, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayU.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in February, following a 0.7% gain in January, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing output also increased 0.2%, led by automotive products. In the last year, total production advanced 1.4% while manufacturing rose 1.3%. The capacity utilization rate, considered a leading indicator of inflation, was unchanged in February, staying at 76.3%, well below the long-term average.
TuesdayProspects for home sellers brightened slightly in February with a bump up in the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said its index rose 1.8% from January and 0.8% from the year before, though it still stood about 28% below the 2001 index, which the Realtors consider to be a normal sales level. The association credited improved affordability for the rise in pending sales. It also said affordability could be threatened by a “sluggish” job market and rising energy costs stemming from the war in Iran.
WednesdayWholesale inflation rose more than analysts expected in February with the highest jump in goods prices since August 2023. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.7% from January. It was up 3.4% from the year before, the most in a year. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.5% from January and was 3.5% higher than the year before.
Demand for U.S. manufactured goods rose in January for the fourth time in six months. The Commerce Department reported that new orders for factory goods grew by 0.1% from December and were 3.5% ahead of their level in January 2025. Gains were led by commercial aircraft orders, which offset declines in automotive and military aircraft. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.4% for the month and 0.6% for the year. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% from December and 2.9% from the year before.
As widely anticipated, the policy-making committee of the Federal Reserve Board voted to hold short-term interest rates steady. After a two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee noted that inflation continued to run above the Fed’s 2% target, although the economy appeared to be expanding at a solid pace and the labor market showed little change since the last meeting.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks to 42% below its average since 1967. The Labor Department report suggested continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 3.4% from the week before to just under 2.2 million, which was 0.3% behind the same time in 2025.
The market for new houses sank to its slowest pace in more than three years in January. The annual rate of new residential sales fell nearly 18% from December and was the lowest since October 2022, the Commerce Department reported. As a result, the inventory of unsold new houses rose to a 9.7 months’ supply. The median price for a new house fell 6.8% from the year before to $400,500.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21648, down 458 points or 2.1% * S&P 500 – 6506, down 126 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 45577, down 981 points or 2.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.39%, up 0.11 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 9-13, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, though it was still behind the year-ago rate and around the lowest in more than 30 years. The trade group called demand “muted” as lower mortgage rates and rising wages combined to make housing more affordable than it has been since March 2022. The median sales price rose to $398,000, up 0.3% from February 2025, the 32nd consecutive increase.
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation stayed steady in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% from February 2025, unadjusted for seasonality. That was the same rate as January and still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. Shelter costs led the monthly uptick. Gas prices rose for the first time in three months — prior to subsequent spikes spurred by the Iran war. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 2.5% from the year before, also the same rate as January.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 25% in January to $54.5 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports rose 5.5% from December, led by non-monetary gold and other precious metals, as well as computers and civilian aircraft. Imports shrank 0.7%, led by pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Since January 2025, the trade gap contracted by almost 58% as exports expanded 10% and imports fell 11%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, suggesting employers continue to be reluctant to let workers leave. According to data from the Labor Department, the four-week number was 41% below the 59-year average. More than 2.2 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 3.5% from the week before and down less than 1% from the year before.
The Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits in January continued to track below their pre-COVID levels. Although the annual pace of housing starts rose 7% from December and 9.5% from January 2025, it has been below the pre-pandemic level for nearly two years. Building permits fell both from the month before and the year before. Meanwhile, the pace of houses under construction fell again, sinking 26% below their record pace in late 2022.
FridayThe U.S. economy grew slower than previously estimated at the end of 2025. The gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from a preliminary report of 2.4% and below the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis blamed the downward revision on weaker consumer spending and private investments and greater declines in government spending and exports. Adjusted for Inflation, GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, the weakest since a 2.1% decline in 2020.
In a possible sign of consumer restraint, personal spending fell slightly behind the pace of personal income in January, raising the personal savings rate to its highest level in six months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a savings rate of 4.5% of disposable income, which has been below the pre-pandemic level of 7.5% for more than four years. The same report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation staying above its long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditure index was up 2.8% from the year before, vs. 2.9% in December. The last time it was below 2% was February 2021.
Durable goods orders were unchanged in January as a plunge in demand for commercial aircraft offset scattered gains elsewhere. The Commerce Department reported that orders overall ran 9% higher than the year before. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand rose 0.4% from the month before and was up 4.4% from January 2025. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, were unchanged for the month and up 2.9% from the year before.
U.S. employers posted 6.9 million job openings in January, up marginally from December but below the pre-COVID level for the third month in a row. Postings were down 43% from their peak nearly five years ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Based on openings and unemployed job seekers, the supply of available labor has outpaced demand since July. That’s after more than four years of the balance favoring workers. The number and rate of workers voluntarily quitting – an indication of worker confidence – stayed below pre-pandemic levels for the 25th month in a row.
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment reversed course following the onset of war in Iran. Polling done before Feb. 28 showed improvements in consumer outlooks, the university said, but opinions plunged thereafter regardless of respondents’ incomes, ages or political affiliations. Overall, consumers had lower expectations for their personal finances and higher forecasts for inflation.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22105, down 282 points or 1.3% * S&P 500 – 6632, down 108 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 46560, down 942 points or 2.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.29%, up 0.15 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus*
(withJoel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 2-6, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayA two-month expansion of the manufacturing sector slowed in February, just as it did the year before. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey-based manufacturing index signaled the second consecutive month of growth after 10 months of contraction. Prior to 2025, the index shrank 26 months in a row. The trade group said 21% of the manufacturing industry’s gross domestic product contracted in February, following 20% in January. The index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.7%.
TuesdayNo significant reports
WednesdayThe service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 20th month in a row and at the highest level since mid-2022. The Institute for Supply Management said the four most impactful index components rose together for the third month in a row, repeating a streak from a year ago. The ISM’s survey of supply managers reported more uncertainty about trade policies following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that found some tariffs illegal. But managers also suggested companies were learning to accommodate volatility in tariff rules.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 2.6% while hours worked decreased at a 0.2% pace. Productivity advanced 2.2% over the last four quarters, equal to the average since the end of 2019. That compared to 1.5% annual growth in the previous 12-year business cycle and an average of 2.2% since 1947. Labor costs rose 1.3% in the last year, and the share of output accrued to workers through compensation reached a record low in data going back to 1947.
The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second time in three weeks. It remained 40% below its average since 1967. Total claims for the latest week declined 2.9% from the week before to just under 2.2 million. That was 1% lower than the year before.
FridayEmployers cut 92,000 jobs on net in February, the second decline in three months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, offered mixed signals on a generally weaker labor market. On the plus side, the average hourly wage continued to outpace broad inflation, and the share of prime-age workers either employed or looking for jobs stayed near the highest level since 2001. On the other hand, a measure of underemployment remained above the pre-pandemic mark for the 26th month in a row, and — outside the pandemic — the employment of temporary-help workers dropped to the lowest count since 2012.
Retail sales declined in January as seven of 13 categories reported lower revenue, the Commerce Department reported. Gas stations were among the decliners, reflecting lower gas prices in January. But sales at bars and restaurants, an indicator of consumer confidence, fell for the third time in four months. Consumer spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales dropped for at least the second month in a row. Inflation data for October and November are missing because of a federal government shutdown.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22388, down 281 points or 1.2% * S&P 500 – 6740, down 109 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 47502, down 1476 points or 3.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.13%, up 0.17 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Steve Giles*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22668, down 218 points or 1.0% * S&P 500 – 6849, down 60 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 48977, down 649 points or 1.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.96%, down 0.12 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 16-20, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets closed for Presidents Day
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayHome construction gained slightly in December but continued to provide little relief to ongoing inventory shortages. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of housing starts rose 6% from November, though it was down 7% from the year-ago pace and has remained below the pre-pandemic level since mid-2023. The pace of housing permits also rose for December but kept under the pre-pandemic rate. The number of houses under construction was down 26% from its peak in November 2022.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, the second decline in three months. A dip in commercial aircraft orders led the drop-off. Excluding transportation equipment, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 0.9% from November and was up 2.8% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.6% for the month and were 3.5% ahead of December 2024.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.7% in January, led by a broad lift in manufacturing output. The 0.6% increase in factory production was the most since February and included the first gain for auto makers since August. Industries’ capacity utilization rate rose slightly in January but stayed below the long-term average, suggesting low potential for inflation.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in 2025, as the value of exports outpaced imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the 2025 trade gap was $901.5 billion, down 0.2% from the year before. Exports grew 6.2% in the year while imports rose 4.8%. Trade gaps detract from economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. From November, the deficit widened 32.6% with exports declining 1.7% and imports rising 3.6%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the first time in four weeks, remaining 39% below the 59-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Some 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.4% from the week before and up 0.9% from the same time in 2025.
The Conference Board reported a 0.2% decline in its index of leading economic indicators in December. It was the fifth consecutive drop. In the last half of 2025, the index fell by 1.6%, an improvement from the 2.8% fall in the first half of 2026. The business research group said weak consumer expectations and meager factory orders led the decline. The Conference Board forecast 2.1% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2026, down slightly from estimates for 2025.
Commitments to home buying slipped in January as sales activity remained the lowest in three decades. The pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors declined 0.8% from December and was down 0.4% from January 2025. The trade group said lower mortgage rates have improved affordability and could spur another 550,000 home buyers into the market in 2026. But with ongoing inventory shortages, additional buyers could boost prices.
FridayThe U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annual pace in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter, according to a preliminary estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expansion of the gross domestic product slowed mostly because consumer spending decelerated but also as a result of a 17% decline in federal government spending, which shaved nearly 1.2 percentage points from the growth rate. For all of 2025, GDP rose 2.2%, down from a 2.4% increase in 2024 and the weakest in three years.
The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose to 2.9% in December, its highest rate since March 2024. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the Personal Consumption Expenditure index was down from a four-decade high of 7.2% in June 2022 but has stayed above the Fed’s long-range target of 2% since early 2021. The report also showed consumer spending rising 0.4% in December, outpacing the 0.3% gain in personal income. As a result, the personal saving rate fell to 3.6% of disposable income, its lowest point in more than three years.
Sales of newly constructed houses slipped in December, as the annual pace dropped 1.7% from November to 745,000 houses. New home sales were up nearly 4% from the year before, as the rate rose above the pre-pandemic level for the second month in a row. The median sales price fell 2% from December 2024 to $414,400. The inventory of unsold new houses fell to 7.6 months’ worth of inventory at current sales rates, compared to less than six months’ just before the pandemic.
The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly from January. The reading was nearly 21% below where it stood in January 2025 as nearly half of all respondents said prices were eroding their personal finances. Sentiment was higher among consumers who were wealthier and had more education. Uncertainty and inflation expectations remained elevated historically but settled down from mid-2025 highs. Economists see consumer sentiment as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22886, up 339 points or 1.5% * S&P 500 – 6910, up 73 points or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial Average – 49626, up 125 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.09%, up 0.03 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 9-13, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Commerce Department reported no change in retail sales in December, following a 0.6% decline in the value of goods and services sold in November. Eight of 13 retail categories posted lower sales, led by furniture stores. Home-and-garden centers led the five categories that gained. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined by 0.3% in December, at least the fourth drop since April, with data missing from October because of the federal government shutdown.
WednesdayU.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, far above the monthly pace of 15,000 in 2025. The employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics included other estimates surpassing analyst expectations, such as a 4.3% unemployment rate, down from 4.4% in December. The labor force participation rate of prime-age workers between 25 and 54 reached its highest point in nearly 25 years. Average wage increases continued to outpace overall inflation. Still, some measures suggested a harder employment market. The U-6 underemployment rate remained above the pre-pandemic level for the 26th month in a row. And employment in temporary help services — often a harbinger of job trends — stayed below the pre-pandemic mark for the 32nd month in a row.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row but continued to indicate employer reluctance to let workers go. According to new data from the Labor Department, the rolling average of claims stayed 39% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims rose 3.5% from the week before, exceeding 2.2 million, but was 1.5% under the same time in 2025.
The U.S. housing market remained the worst in more than 30 years in January, as the National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales dropped another 8.4%. The annual rate of unit sales was down 4.4% from the year-ago pace. And while extraordinarily cold and snowy weather contributed to low sales in January, the trade group continued to cite lack of supply for the industry’s woes. The median sales price rose 0.9% from the year before to $396,800, the 31st consecutive increase. But average wages rose faster than prices, and mortgage rates were lower than the year before, which improved affordability to the best level for buyers since March 2022. That’s when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat high inflation.
FridayDespite another increase in housing costs in January, the overall inflation rate dipped to its lowest level since May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from December, led by shelter costs and food prices, which were partially offset by a 3.2% dip in gas prices. Compared to January 2025, the broadest measure of inflation rose 2.4%. That’s still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. Excluding volatile costs for food and energy items, the core CPI added 0.3% from December and was up 2.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since reaching 1.6% in May 2021.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23031, down 431 points or 1.8% * S&P 500 – 6932, down 7 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 50116, up 1223 points or 2.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.21%, down 0.04%
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 2-6, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in a year and only the second time in more than three years, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of manufacturing supply managers, showed new orders growing for the first time since August and at the fastest pace in four years. Production also rose the most since early 2022, while employment contracted for the 28th month in a row. The ISM said 12% of manufacturing gross domestic product was in strong contraction in January, compared to 43% in December.
TuesdayNo major releases, in part because of the partial shutdown of the federal government.
WednesdayService industries, the largest segment of the U.S. economy, showed continued expansion in January. The Institute for Supply Management’s service index indicated growth for the 19th month in a row. The index level was unchanged from December and the highest since October 2024. Supply managers surveyed for the report continued to voice concerns over the impact and uncertainty of tariffs. The trade group said a trend in price increases deserved monitoring.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but continued to suggest a historically tight job market. According to data from the Labor Department, the latest four-week average was 41% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have signaled reluctance by employers to let workers go. Total claims fell 4.2% from the week before to just below 2.2 million, which was 1.2% lower than the year before.
And while employers appear reluctant to dismiss workers, the number of job openings dropped in December to the lowest level since the pandemic. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 6.5 million openings in December, down from a record 12.1 million in March 2022 and below the pre-pandemic mark for the first time since September 2020. The number and rate of worker quitting their jobs — a measure of worker confidence — have stayed below pre-pandemic levels since the end of 2023.
FridayA report on jobs and employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed because of the partial shutdown of the federal government.
The University of Michigan said a preliminary measure of its consumer sentiment index showed essentially no change from January. Though it was the highest reading since August, it was down 11% from February 2025 and remained “relatively low from a historical perspective.” The survey-based report found consumers continuing to be concerned about their personal finances because of high prices and weakened job prospects. Stockholders tended to feel more confident. Expectations for inflation continued to outpace expectations before the pandemic.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23031, down 431 points or 1.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6932, down 7 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 50116, up 1223 points or 2.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.21%, down 0.04%
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Mike Hoelzl * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 26-30)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayOrders for commercial aircraft boosted durable goods orders in November, the Commerce Department reported. Total orders rose 5.3% from October, the third increase in four months, and were 7.3% ahead of their level in November 2024. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.5% for the month and were up 2.4% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, gained 0.7% from October and were up 3.1% from November 2024.
TuesdayHousing prices increased again in November, though less than overall inflation, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index. The 1.4% gain was unchanged from October and compared to a 2.7% year-to-year increase in the cost of living, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An executive with the index said it indicated the U.S. housing market is in a period of tepid growth. Data showed a divergence of markets geographically with prices rising 5.7% in Chicago and declining 3.9% in Tampa. Month to month seasonally adjusted prices fell in 15 of 20 major cities.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in January to its lowest point since May 2014. The business research group said expectations sank across demographics including age, income and party affiliation. Expectation levels continued to signal near-term economic recession. Economists follow consumer confidence as a precursor to consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
WednesdayThe policy-making body of the Federal Reserve Board announced no change to the overnight funds rate. Citing stabilizing unemployment and somewhat elevated inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee said it would hold the fed funds rate after dropping it three times in the last half of 2025. The rate is what banks charge one another. The Fed tends to raise it when it’s more concerned about inflation and to lower it when unemployment gets worrisome.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit nearly doubled in November, widening by 94.6% to $56.8 billion. Exports declined as imports rose as global trade continued to be volatile amid fluctuating U.S. tariffs. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports fell by 3.6% from October, led by sales of non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical products. Imports gained 5%, led by increased U.S. purchases of overseas pharmaceuticals and computers. Through the first 11 months of 2025, the deficit — which detracts from gross domestic product — widened 4%; exports gained 6.3%, and imports rose 5.8%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in four weeks but continued to show overall tight hiring conditions. The average was 43% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said just under 2.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 3% from the week before and a smidge below the same time in 2024.
Worker productivity increased at a 4.9% annual rate in the third quarter, unchanged from a previous estimate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported worker output rose at a 5.4% pace while hours worked rose 0.5%. Hourly compensation advanced at a 2.9% pace in the quarter, resulting in a decline of 1.9% in labor costs. Year to year, productivity rose 1.9%, just below the 2% annual average in the business cycle that started at the end of 2019. In the previous cycle, beginning at the end of 2007, productivity averaged 1.5%, vs. a 2.1% average gain since 1947.
A rise in demand for commercial aircraft boosted factory orders in November. The Commerce Department reported that total orders rose 2.7% from October, the third increase in four months. Demand for manufactured goods was up 3.4% from the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% for the month and were up 0.7% from November 2024. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.4% from October and were up 3.1% from November 2024.
FridayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in December, as prices on goods were unchanged while services increased. The Producer Price Index advanced 3% from the year before, down from 3.5% in 2024 but up from as low as 2.4% in June. The Federal Reserve target for long-term inflation is 2%. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI rose 0.4% from November and was up 3.5% from December 2024.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23462, down 39 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6939, up 23 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 48892, down 206 points or 0.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.24%, no change
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 19-23, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets and government offices closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayU.S. construction spending rose in October for the fourth time in five months. Data from the Commerce Department, delayed by the government shutdown in the fall, showed the seasonally adjusted annual rate of building expenditures up 0.5% from September. It was 1% below its year-ago pace. Spending on residential construction — accounting for 57% of the total — slipped 1.2% from the October 2024 pace. Manufacturing accounted for 10% of all construction spending and was down 11% from a record high last May.
An early indicator of home sales declined in December. The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales dropped 9.3% from November and was down 3% from December 2024. The trade group said several seasonal factors could have affected the reading but that low inventories probably dampened demand. At 71.8, the index of pending sales was nearly 30% below what the association considers normal. Total sales for 2025 tied with the year before for the lowest since 1995.
ThursdayThe U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 4.4% in the third quarter, up from 3.8% in the previous three months and the highest rate in two years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the acceleration in gross domestic product was led by consumer spending, exports, government spending and investments. A decline in imports also contributed to the third-quarter gain.
The 4.4% pace was revised from 4.3% in an earlier estimate. Since the third quarter of 2024 and adjusting for inflation, GDP rose 2.3%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row and the fourth time in five weeks to reach the lowest level in two years. The average was 44% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said 2.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up more than 5% from the week before and 1.5% higher than the same time in 2025.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.5% in November, outpacing a 0.3% increase in personal income. As a result, the personal saving rate dipped to 3.5% of disposable income, the lowest in more than three years. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, rose 2.8% from November 2024, up from 2.7% in October. The inflation rate remained above the Fed’s 2% long-term target but was below a four-decade high exceeding 7% in June 2022.
FridayThe University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index improved from December with a small, broadly based increase. The index rose 6.6% from the month before and remained 21% below where it stood in January 2025, as consumers continued to complain about high prices and expressed concerns about weakening job conditions. Expectations for inflation ran at 4% in the next year and 3.3% longer term. Consumers’ outlook for inflation stayed high historically but was down from mid-2025 peaks, which were blown up by worries over global trade wars.
The U.S. economy should slow in 2026, the Conference Board said, based on its November report of leading economic indicators. The business research group said its index declined 0.3% in November after dropping 0.1% in October, led by weak consumer expectations and falling demand for manufactured goods. Among the positive indicators were fewer unemployment insurance claims and more factory hours worked. For the latest six months, the index fell 1.2%, compared to a decline of 2.6% in the previous six months.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23501, down 14 points or 0.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6916, down 24 points or 0.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 49099, down 261 points or 0.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.24%, up 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 12-16, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe broadest measure of inflation rose slightly in December, staying above the Federal Reserve Board target though below the four-decade peak in 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index, rose 0.3% from November, led by shelter costs and food prices, offset by lower gas prices. The CPI advanced 2.7% from December 2027, unchanged from the November pace. That’s down from 9.1% in June 2022 but above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy items, the core CPI rose 0.2% from November and was 2.6% ahead of December 2024, the slowest pace for core inflation since March 2021.
The Commerce Department reported a slight decline in the annual rate of new home sales in October. All the growth occurred in southern states and was nearly 19% ahead of the year-ago pace. Despite declining 0.1% from September, the annual sales rate of new houses stayed above the pre-pandemic level for the third month in a row. An increase in sales of houses for less than $400,000 brought the median sales price down to $392,300, 8% below the mark in October 2024.
WednesdayThe Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.6% in November after slipping 0.1% in October. The latest gain suggested continued resilience in the economy, with 10 of 13 retail categories expanding, led by car dealers, gas stations, home-and-garden centers and sporting goods/hobby stores. Sales at bars and restaurants also rose in November, rising for the fifth time in six months. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of consumer spending, which drives more than two-thirds of economic growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.2% in November, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. A 4.6% jump in energy prices accounted for 90% of the rise in the cost of goods. The Producer Price Index advanced 3% from the year before, down from the record 11.7% reached in March 2022. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI also rose 0.2% from October and was up 3.5% from the year before, the most since March.
Housing sales continued to tank in 2025. The National Association of Realtors reported 4.06 million houses and condominium sold, the same as 2024, and the lowest since 1995. Existing home sales account for 90% of the residential market. The trade group cited record-high prices and scant supply. The median sales price for December reached $405,400, up 0.4% from the year before, the 30th straight increase. The number of unsold houses on the market fell below 1.2 million, or 3.3 months’ worth at the current sales pace.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since January 2024, dropping 43% below the all-time average. An indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go, the moving average was 1% above where it stood just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Labor Department data. Total claims for jobless benefits rose 16% from the week before to 2.2 million, affected in part by year-end layoffs. That was up 0.2% from the year before.
FridayIndustrial production rose in December for the second month in a row and gained 2% from the year before. The Federal Reserve Board said production from factories increased 0.2% from November and also was up 2% from December 2024. Industries’ capacity utilization rate — covering manufacturing, mining and utilities — also rose for the second consecutive month, though it stayed below its 53-year average, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23515, down 156 points or 0.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6940, down 26 points or 0.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 49359, down 145 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.23%, up 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 5-9, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled contraction in December for the 10th month in a row and the 36th time in 38 months. Based on surveys of supply managers, the index showed that the industry slump accelerated for the third month in a row. The trade group said 85% of the sector’s gross domestic product shrank in December, compared to 58% in November, and 43% of manufacturing GDP was in strong contraction, vs. 39% the month before. The ISM said the index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.6%.
TuesdayNo significant reports or announcements
WednesdayA report from the Commerce Department showed manufacturing orders shrinking in October for the third time in five months. The value of orders fell 1.3% from September and was 3.3% ahead of October 2024. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment – most notably commercial aircraft, orders sank 0.2% for the month and gained 0.8% from the year before. A proxy for business investments was up 0.5% from October and 3.1% from the year before.
U.S. employers posted 7.1 million job openings in November, as both hiring and separations remained stagnant. Openings were down from a record high of 12.2 million in March 2022 and remained above the pre-pandemic level of about 7 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that both the number and proportion of workers quitting their jobs – an indicator of worker confidence – stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 23rd month in a row.
The U.S. services sector grew at a faster pace for the third month in a row in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed most components improved from November. Employment expanded for the first time in seven months. The 12-month average for the index has been dropping for nearly four years. Supply managers told the ISM they’re concerned about prices, tariffs and seasonal factors.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed 39% in October to $29.4 billion, the slimmest margin since mid-2009, amid continued adjustments to shifting tariffs. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports rose by 2.6% from September, with non-monetary gold and other precious metals offsetting a decline in other goods sold abroad. Imports fell 3.2%, led by pharmaceuticals. Through the first 10 months of 2025, the deficit – which detracts from gross domestic product – widened 7.7%; exports gained 6.3%, while imports rose 6.6%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years. Measured year over year, productivity advanced 1.9% from the third quarter of 2024. That compares to an average 1.5% annual gain since the end of 2019, which is below the 2.1% average since 1947. The productivity report showed unit labor costs falling at a 1.9% annual pace during the latest quarter, as output rose faster than compensation. Adjusted for inflation, compensation rose 0.3% from the third quarter of 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second time in three weeks to its lowest level since April 2024. The measure of employer willingness to part with workers was 41% below the all-time average and 2% above where it stood just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the Labor Department showed 1.9 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits in the latest week. That was down 5.7% from the week before and up 1% from the same time last year.
In a sign of ongoing consumer caution, credit card debt sank in November at a 1.9% annual pace. The Federal Reserve Board reported that revolving consumer debt outstanding declined for the sixth time in 13 months. The decrease amounted to $2.1 billion. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. Credit card debt partly reflects the confidence of consumers to keep spending.
FridayU.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in December, barely higher than the average for 2025 and well below the monthly addition of 168,000 jobs in 2024. Other data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report suggests a resilient though cooling job market. Temporary help jobs — considered a bellwether of overall hiring trends — dropped to the lowest number in 14 years. The average hourly wage rose 3.8% from December 2024, exceeding overall inflation for the 31st month in a row. The same report showed the unemployment rate at 4.4%, staying above the pre-pandemic rate since mid-2023.
The pace of U.S. housing starts and building permits continued to slow in October. The Commerce Department reported the annual rate of new construction declined nearly 5% from September and almost 8% from the year before. The annual pace of permits inched down 0.2% for the month and was more than 1% lower than in October 2024. The pace of houses under construction was down 23% from the peak three years earlier but still stayed 8% above the pre-pandemic level.
The University of Michigan reported a second consecutive month of slightly improving consumer sentiment. A preliminary January reading of the survey-based index showed overall sentiment down nearly 25% from the beginning of 2025, though up from mid-year pessimism surrounding unclear tariff policies. The university said consumers remained mostly concerned about higher prices and a weaker job market.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23671, up 436 points or 1.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6966, up 108 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 49504, up 1122 points or 2.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.17%, down 0.02 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Kendall Bauer * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 29, 2025-Jan. 2, 2026)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe National Association of Realtors reported increased demand for housing in November, though it remained historically low. The trade group reported its pending home sales index rose 3.3% in from October and was 2.6% ahead of the year before. It was the highest seasonally adjusted reading since February 2023, the group said, but it was still more than 20% below what it considers to be normal activity. The Realtors said lower mortgage rates and wages rising faster than inflation were making housing more affordable while greater inventory was attracting more buyers.
TuesdayHousing inflation continued to slow in October, staying below overall inflation. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index rose 1.4% from its year-earlier measure. The pace was essentially unchanged from September and marked the lowest price growth since mid-2023, just as the Federal Reserve Board had started boosting interest rates to tamp down inflation. Unadjusted for seasonal fluctuations, monthly home prices declined in 16 of the 20 metropolitan markets followed closest by the index. Analysts for S&P observed “broad stagnation as high mortgage rates weigh on affordability and suppress price momentum.”
WednesdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third time in four weeks but stayed 40% below its 58-year average, suggesting ongoing tightness in the job market. The Labor Department reported that total claims – including ongoing cases – surpassed 2 million in the latest week, up more than 6% from the previous week and up more than 2% from the year before.
ThursdayMarkets and government offices closed for New Year’s
FridayNo significant releases
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Managing Expectations for 2026In a special year-end Money Talk Podcast, Landaas investment advisors Kyle Tetting, Adam Baley and Dave Sandstrom look ahead at the global economic trends and financial market forces that warrant the attention of long-term investors.
“We’re going to talk about the look ahead for the year of 2026,” Kyle explained at the outset, “expectations for the year ahead after – at least as we’re recording this – what has been an incredible year so far for 2025.”
Included in the discussion:
- The possibility of another year of double-digit returns, based on strong earnings forecasts.
- Continued historically high stock valuations.
- Continued historically low interest rates.
- Prospects for further rate reduction by the Federal Reserve.
- Continued investments in artificial intelligence.
- Further prospects for non-U.S. investments.
- Ongoing vigilance against scams.
Learn more
2025 Investment Outlook Seminar,
a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
The Fed: What investors should know, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
Rare U-turn raises yield curve concerns, by Adam Baley
2025 Investment Outlook Seminar: Tax updates, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
5 reasons to watch the dollar, by Steve Giles
Heads Up: Protecting Yourself from Scams, by Jason Scuglik
A look back at 2025Coming in the Jan. 2, 2026 Money Talk Podcast:
Landaas investment advisors Kyle Tetting, Kendall Bauer and John Sandstrom review developments that influenced investment returns over the course of 2025.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 15-19, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayEmployers continued to add jobs in November amid signs of a weakening labor market, including the highest unemployment rate in four years. The shutdown-delayed employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 64,000 more jobs in November after a 105,000-job decline in October, the third drop in five months. Federal jobs led the October fall as total employment stayed flat since April. Temporary help — considered a harbinger of hiring trends — reached its lowest level outside of the pandemic since 2012, amid recovery from the Great Recession. Because of the 43-day government shutdown, household data was not collected in October and had a higher margin of error in November. That data raised the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021.
The Commerce Department reported no change in retail sales in October. Eight of 13 major categories had higher sales. Decliners were led by car dealers, home-and-garden centers and bars and restaurants. Sales fell at gas stations because of lower prices. Excluding volatile car and gas sales, retailers generated 0.5 % more revenue than in September. About two-thirds of U.S. economic activity is driven by consumer spending, a majority of which is reflected in retail sales.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe broadest measure of inflation showed a 2.7% annual pace in November. Because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics skipped its October report, the first miss since 1948, but showed a lower Consumer Price Index increase for the first time since April, when the year-to-year rate was 2.3%. Inflation stayed above the long-range Federal Reserve target of 2% but was down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. According to the incomplete report, gas prices were up 11% from the year before and shelter costs rose 3%. Excluding volatile costs for energy and food, the core CPI rose 2.6% from November 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, the Labor Department reported. The gauge of employers’ willingness to release workers was 40% below the long-term average and up 5% from the low just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total jobless claims rose nearly 16% in the latest week to just below 2 million, up almost 2% from the year before.
FridayExisting home sales rose 0.5% in November, a third consecutive increase, the National Association of Realtors reported. The annual sales rate of 4.1 million houses and condos was 1% below the year before; 2024 had the lowest sales in 30 years. An economist for the trade association said housing wealth was at an all-time high, so homeowners are in no hurry to list their properties. Low inventory has helped boost prices, rising to a median price of $409,200 in November, a 1.2% gain from the year before and the 29th consecutive increase.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose marginally in December, though it was 28.5% lower than the year before. Conditions for buying durable goods fell for the fifth month in a row as 63% of consumers surveyed foresaw a continuing rise in unemployment. Inflation expectations fell but remained higher than they were in January. Economists follow consumer sentiment as a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23286, up 91 points or 0.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6837, up 10 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 48254, down 204 points or 0.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.15%, down 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)
Week in Review (Dec. 8-12, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayEmployers’ appetite for new workers rose in September and then only slightly in October, according to a delayed job openings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Openings reached nearly 7.7 million in October, down 36% from the peak of 12.1 million in March 2022, but still above pre-pandemic levels. The report combined new data from September and October and was one week later than usual because of the federal government’s 43-day shutdown. The rate and number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – dipped to their lowest levels since the early months of the pandemic. They have been below pre-COVID levels since the end of 2023.
WednesdayThe policymaking body of the Federal Reserve Board voted to lower short-term interest rates again by a quarter point, as widely expected. Citing increased signs of a weakening labor market amid “somewhat elevated” inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee moved to slightly boost what it determined was moderate economic growth. Members of the committee were divided on the action. While nine voted to lower the fed funds rate by a quarter of a point, one member wanted to reduce it by a half point, and two others wanted to hold rates steady.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade gap narrowed 11% to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest deficit since mid-2020, amid the pandemic. The value of exports rose 3% from August, led by non-monetary gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports declined 0.6%, led by pharmaceuticals. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the trade deficit, which detracts from measures of economic output, widened 17% through the first three quarters of the year, compared to the same period in 2024. In that time, exports grew 5% and imports rose nearly 8%.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in four weeks. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest an overall reluctance by employers to let workers go. The moving average for jobless applications was 40% below its 58-year average. Just over 1.7 million Americans claimed unemployment benefits in the latest week, down 5% from the week before but almost 3% more than the same time last year.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23195, down 383 points or 1.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6827, down 43 points or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 48458, up 503 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.19%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Dave Sandstrom * Mike Hoelzl * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 1-5, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing industry shrank in November for the ninth month in a row and the 35th time in 37 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said manufacturers continued to complain about tariffs, prices and uncertainty as supplier deliveries and new orders grew. Employment sank. A rare bright spot was a slight increase in production. Based on past history, the index suggests the U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of 1.7%.
Because of the federal government shutdown in October and the first couple of weeks in November, the Commerce Department did not releasee its scheduled report on construction spending.
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayIndustrial production in the U.S. grew by 0.1% in September, rising for the third time in four months, the Federal Reserve reported. Production of consumer goods fell, led by automotive. The output of consumer goods declined for the second quarter in a row, at an annual pace of 0.6%, according to the Fed. Industries were using 75.9% of their production capacity, which was below the 50-year average of 79.5%, suggesting a lack of inflationary pressure.
The service sector showed signs of an emerging recovery in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s ISM services index signaled expansion for the second month in a row, reaching a reading of 52.6, compared to its 12-month average of 51.7. The ISM noted that the average is the lowest since August 2024 and the second lowest since mid-2010. Supply managers surveyed for the index said higher tariffs and the federal government shutdown are upsetting both demand and costs.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis failed to report on the U.S. trade gap for October, as scheduled, because of the 43-day federal government shutdown.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row, the fifth time in six weeks, to its lowest level since January. The numbers continued to suggest an overall reluctance to let workers go. Data from the Labor Department put the moving average at 41% below its 58-year average. Just over 1.8 million Americans claimed unemployment benefits in the latest week, up 3.2% from the week before, and 4% above the same time last year.
Demand for manufactured goods improved in October, with factory orders rising the second month in a row. Led by military equipment, orders gained 0.2% from September and were up 3.5% from October 2024. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% for the month and were 0.8% higher than the year before, the Commerce Department reported. Orders for core capital goods, a measure of business investment, advanced 0.9% from September and were up 2.7% from October 2024.
FridayA delayed report on inflation showed a slight increase in September. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% from the year before, up from 2.7% In August and the highest rate in 17 months. The core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose slightly less than it did in August, and its year-to-year pace slowed slightly. Consumer spending, which drives more than two-thirds of economic output, increased 0.3% from August, following three months of 0.5% gains.
Consumer sentiment rose minimally in early December, based on a preliminary report from the University of Michigan. Survey data showed the university’s sentiment index up 4.5% from November, within the margin of error, though it remained 28% below where it stood in December 2024. Expectations for personal finances increased, the university said, but they remained 12% below where they began the year. High expectations of inflation also moderated. Ongoing concerns over high prices made consumers “broadly somber,” the university said.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23578, up 212 points or 0.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6870, up 21 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 47955, up 239 points or 0.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.14%, up 0.12 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Steve Giles*
(with Max Hoelzland Joel Dresangengineered by Jason Scuglik)
Learn more
Gratitude is an enriching attitude, by Joel Dresang
Bigger bang from charitable contributions, a Money Talk Video with Art Rothschild
IRS Publication 526, Charitable Contributions, IRS Tax Topic
An IRS FAQ on qualified charitable distributions from IRAs
In the seasonal spirit of giving, Landaas investment advisors devoted a Money Talk Podcast episode to suggesting strategic ways for investors to be charitable.
“As always, we’ll start with the reminder that we are not tax advisors. We’re investment people,” Kyle Tetting said. “You should definitely go out and talk to your tax preparer, your CPA, about how these things impact your specific tax situation.”
That said, Kyle, Art Rothschild and Steve Giles explained options investors could explore to the make the most try to make the most of their opportunities to spread their wealth.
Their discussions included:
- Giving cash
- Gifting appreciated assets
- Using qualified charitable distributions
- Using donor-advised funds
- Gifting to children and grandchildren
Some strategies entail tax considerations because tax benefits often let investors afford bigger gifts, Kyle noted. But the bottom line is to are important, Kyle noted that the bottom line is to support the donor’s generosity.
“I always start the conversation with clients on charitable giving by saying we don’t ever give away money to save on taxes,” Kyle said. “We give away the money that we would otherwise want to give to charity, but where we’re giving, we want to do it in the most tax-efficient way possible.”
Click here to listen to the 2025 Giving Podcast.ONLINE GUIDES FOR SCRUTINIZING CHARITIES: Candid (formerly known as GuideStar) * IRS Search for Tax Exempt Organizations * Donating to Charity, from the Federal Trade Commission * BBB Wise Giving Alliance * Charity Navigator * Charity Watch***
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Steve Giles*
(with Max Hoelzland Joel Dresangengineered byJason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 17-21, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Commerce Department reported a 0.2% rise in construction spending in August, in its first release of economic data since the six-week federal government shutdown, which ended Nov. 12. Spending on housing construction accounted for 43% of the total and rose 0.8% from July. Total construction spending was 2.1% lower than its May 2024 peak. Compared to August 2024, overall construction spending fell 1.6% and dropped 1.8% for housing.
TuesdayThe Federal Reserve reported that it could not release its scheduled report on industrial production and capacity utilization because it relied on data from other agencies that had been affected by the federal government shutdown.
Factory orders rose in August for the first time in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Led by orders for commercial aircraft, demand for manufactured goods was up 3.3% from August 2024. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.1% from July and gained 0.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, advanced 0.4% for the month and 2.3% from August 2024.
WednesdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 23.8% in August to $59.6 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the gap shrank because of a 0.1% rise in exports and a 5.1% decline in imports. Travel services led the slight gain in exports while sales abroad of U.S.-made goods fell, led by computers and pharmaceuticals. Through the first eight months of 2025, the trade gap widened by 25% from the year before, with a 5.1% gain in exports and a 9.2% advance in exports. Trade deficits detract from economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product.
Housing construction data on building permits and housing starts were not available as scheduled from the Commerce Department.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the third time in four weeks as the Labor Department resumed reports following the six-week government shutdown. Initial claims were 38% below the all-time average and 8% above where they were just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels of unemployment among those covered by insurance were at four-year highs. Total claims rose slightly to just under 1.8 million, up nearly 7% from the same time last year.
U.S. employment gained in September amid more signs of labor-market weakening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a shutdown-delayed report of employers adding 119,000 jobs in September, on par with the 12-month pace. But revisions from recent months showed a net loss of jobs in August, the second setback in three months. Temporary-help employment, considered a harbinger of hiring, fell to its lowest level since early 2012. Average pay stayed above the overall inflation rate. The unemployment rate – determined separately from household surveys – rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years. The government said the shutdown precluded it from conducting household surveys in October, meaning it will fail to deliver that monthly report for the first time in 77 years.
Because of the federal government shutdown, the Conference Board could not report on its October index of leading economic indicators.
The National Association of Realtors reported a 1.2% rise in existing home sales in October. The annual sales rate was up 1.7% from the year before to 4.1 million houses and condos. That’s level with what the trade group reported for all of 2024, marking the lowest level in 30 years. The association credited lower mortgage rates for improving sales recently, but inventories remained below historically sustainable rates. The median sales price rose to $415,200, up 2.1% from October 2024, the 28th consecutive year-to-year gain.
FridayConsidered a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, sank again in November, dropping 4.9% from October and 29% from where the index was in November 2024. The longstanding report from the University of Michigan noted a slight gain after the federal government shutdown ended, but consumers expressed continued concerns about high prices and weakened incomes. The university said recent market sell-offs particularly dimmed the view of stockholders. Expectations for inflation inched down but remained higher than they were to start the year.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22273, down 628 points or 2.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6603, down 131 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46246, down 902 points or 1.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.06%, down 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 10-14, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayOctober updates on the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, were not available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of the federal government shutdown. Although the shutdown officially ended Wednesday — at 43 days, the longest in U.S. history, agencies are expected to take some time to resume collection, analysis and reporting of data.
The Labor Department report on initial claims for unemployment were not available for the seventh week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.
FridayThe Commerce Department failed to release October retail sales data as scheduled because of the federal government shutdown. Retail sales represent about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the country’s gross domestic product.
Because of the federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on the October Producer Price Index, which tracks inflation on the wholesale level.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22901, down 104 points or 0.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6734, up 5 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 47147, up 60 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.15%, up 0.06 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 3-7, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth month in a row and the 34thrd time in 36 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of industry purchasing managers, showed continued concerns about the uncertainty and unpredictability surrounding tariff policies. The group said based on past index readings the overall U.S. economy expanded for the 66th straight month, growing at an annual rate of 1.8%.
Because of the federal government shutdown, the Commerce Department did not release a report on construction spending in September.
TuesdayThe September report on the U.S. trade deficit was not published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis because of the federal government shutdown.
The Commerce Department did not release a report on factory orders for September because of the federal government shutdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on September job openings and labor turnover because of the federal government shutdown.
Wednesday The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in October for the fourth time in five months, following no change in September. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose at the fastest pace since February, as both business activity and new orders grew. The trade group said its survey of purchasing managers showed service-sector employment slumping for the fifth month in a row, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economy. Respondents cited concerns about tariffs and the federal government shutdown. The ISM said based on index history, the U.S. gross domestic product was growing at an annual rate of 1.2%.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics did not release a scheduled report on worker productivity in the third quarter because of the federal government shutdown.
The Labor Department’s weekly report on initial claims for unemployment insurance was not available for the sixth week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.
FridayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics did not report on October payroll and unemployment data because of the federal government shutdown.
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment continued sinking as survey respondents felt less certain about their current personal finances and more pessimistic about business conditions next year. Overall sentiment dropped 6% from September and 30% from the same time last year. Expectations for inflation rose to 4.7% a year from now but dipped to 3.6% longer term. Consumers expressed continued concerns about the impact of trade wars and worries about economic fallout from the federal government shutdown.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23005, down 720 points or 3.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6729, down 111 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46987, down 576 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.09%, down 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Steve Giles*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Oct. 27-31, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayAn indicator of demand for manufactured products, the Commerce Department’s report on durable goods orders, was unavailable because of the federal government shutdown.
TuesdayHousing prices continued slowing in August, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national home price index. The measure showed a 1.5% year-to-year gain in residential prices, the lowest in more than two years and below the overall inflation rate for the fourth straight month. An S&P analyst said the housing market has been trying to find a sustainable equilibrium following its post-pandemic boom. He added, “(H)omeowners are watching their real equity erode while buyers face the dual challenge of elevated prices and high borrowing costs.”
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index moved sideways in October. The index dipped slightly from September with lower expectations offsetting consumers’ marginally higher opinion of the present situation. The business research group said pessimism about the future continued to suggest an impending recession for the ninth month in a row. Prices and inflation remained the top concerns among survey respondents. Mentions of tariffs declined from earlier surveys but stayed elevated. Some consumers expressed dismay about the federal government shutdown.
WednesdayThe National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index was unchanged in September and down 0.9% from the year before. The trade association said lower mortgage rates and increased wealth effect – from record-high stock prices and elevated home values – could not overcome apparent softening in the job market. The pending sales index remained more than 25% below its 2001 base, which the Realtors consider a normal level of sales activity.
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered short-term lending rates by one quarter of a percentage point for the second time in six weeks. The Federal Reserve Board’s policy-making body said continued consideration of slowing labor markets prompted it to loosen monetary control, though it also expressed reluctance to lower rates while inflation stayed above the long-term target of 2%. The September Consumer Price Index showed broad inflation rising at a 3% annual rate, although more complete data reports have been curtailed by the federal government shutdown.
ThursdayThe broadest measure of U.S. economic output, the quarterly report on gross domestic product, was not available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis because of the federal government shutdown. The GDP report includes the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index.
The Labor Department’s report on initial unemployment insurance claims was not available for the fifth week in a row because of the federal government shutdown.
FridayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis did not release its consumer spending report for September because of the federal government shutdown.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23725, up 520 points or 2.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6840, up 49 points or 0.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 47563, up 356 points or 0.8% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.10%, down 0.10 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Oct. 20-24, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Conference Board said its September index of leading economic indicators was not available because of the government shutdown. The indicator from the business research group relies mostly on government data to show trends in the U.S. economy.
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe federal government shutdown delayed the Labor Department’s weekly report of initial unemployment claims, which gauges the job market and employers’ willingness to let go of workers.
The National Association of Realtors credited lower mortgage rates and improved affordability for helping to boost existing home sales in September. Sales rose 1.5% from the pace in August and were up 4.1% from the year before. At an annual rate of 4.06 million houses, sales were slightly below the 2024 final which was the lowest since 1995. The trade association said sales inventories rose to a five-year high in September but remained below the pre-pandemic level. The median sale price rose to $415,200, up 2.1% from the year before, the 27th consecutive year-to-year gain.
FridayA 4.1% jump in gasoline prices led the cost increases that pushed inflation higher in September. Based on data collected before the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% from August and was up 3% from the same time last year. The year-to-year inflation rate was the highest since January and marked the 55th straight month above the Federal Reserve Board’s target of 2%. In that period, inflation ranged from 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.3% in April. The core CPI, which strips out volatile costs for food and energy, rose 0.3% from August and was up 3% from September 2024.
Based on CPI data, the Social Security Administration announced a 2.8% increase to benefits in 2026. That’s up from a 2.5% raise in 2025 and is on par with the average increase in the previous 10 years. The average cost-of-living adjustment since Social Security began adjusting benefits to inflation in 1975 was 3.7%. Social Security said the average retired recipient can expect an added $56 in their benefit checks, beginning in January.
Often a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment slid marginally in October amid ongoing concerns about prices and inflation. The University of Michigan reported that its survey-based index declined 2.7% from September and was down 24% from October 2024. University researchers said expectations for inflation remained well above the Fed target though below highs set earlier in the year after initial announcements of tariff increases. Just 2% of respondents made unprompted references to the government shutdown, down from 10% In the second month of the last shutdown, in 2019.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 23205, up 525 points or 2.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6792, up 128 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 47207, up 1017 points or 2.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.00%, down 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered byJason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Oct. 13-17, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayThe Federal Reserve Board said U.S. economic activity changed little since its previous Beige Book. The latest report — a collection of unofficial anecdotes gathered in each of the central bank’s 12 districts — showed weak consumer spending overall and stable but muted demand for workers. According to the Fed, three of its districts reported slight to moderate growth in the six weeks up to Oct. 6. Five districts noted little change from September’s report. Four revealed slight declines in economic activity. Although the Beige Book provides relatively soft evidence of the country’s economic state, harder data is scarce since the federal government shut down Oct. 1.
ThursdayA report on the September Producer Price Index, measuring inflation on the wholesale level, was not available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics because of the government shutdown.
A Commerce Department report on September retail sales was not released because of the government shutdown. Retail sales account for about two-thirds of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was not available from the Labor Department because of the shutdown.
FridayAn update on the U.S. housing market, via a Commerce Department report on September housing starts and building permits was not available because of the shutdown.
The Federal Reserve was not able to release its September report on the progress of U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization because it relies on data from other government agencies. Because of the shutdown, the data was not available to the Fed.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22680, up 476 points or 2.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6664, up 111 points or 1.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46191, up 711 points or 1.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.01%, down 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (October 6-10, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe scheduled release of August data on the U.S. trade deficit did not occur because of the federal government shutdown. The deficit detracts from U.S. economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product.
Consumers showed more caution about spending in August, as the amount of credit card debt outstanding fell for the third time in four months. The Federal Reserve Board reported that so-called revolving debt declined at an annual rate of 5.5% from July. The rate sank 3.3% from its peak last October. Economists watch revolving debt as a sign of confidence among consumers, whose spending accounts for about 70% of gross domestic product. Total consumer debt outstanding, including car financing and student loans, rose in August at a 0.1% annual rate.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayA scheduled report on unemployment insurance claims was not released because of the federal government shutdown. The claims measure job cuts by U.S. employers.
FridayA preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in October showed no meaningful change in the dour outlook of Americans. The University of Michigan reported that its longstanding survey-based index remained more than 20% below where it was a year ago. Consumers continued to express concerns over high prices and weakened job prospects. The government shutdown Oct. 1 appeared to have little effect on their sentiment. Survey respondents said they expect inflation to reach 3.7% in the next 12 months and 4.6% longer term, ranging above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22204, down 576 points or 2.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6553, down 163 points or 2.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 45480, down 1279 points or 2.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.05%, down 0.07 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Mike Hoelzl * John Sandstrom*
(with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang )
Week in Review (Sept. 29-Oct. 3, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayDemand for housing rose in August, according to the pending home sales index from the National Association of Realtors. The index, based on the number of houses sold in 2001, increased to 74.7, up 4% from July and 3.8% ahead of where it stood in August 2024. The trade group said lower mortgage rates were encouraging more home shoppers, especially in the Midwest, where improved affordability also factored in. Pending sales in the Midwest rose 8.7% from July, the Realtors reported, and were up 6.7% from the year before.
TuesdayHousing prices slowed again in July, staying below the overall inflation rate for the third month in a row, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the national index rose 1.7%, one of the narrowest increases in a decade, compared to a 2.7% increase in inflation in July, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An analyst with the index said higher mortgage rates and stretched affordability have weakened demand for housing. He said housing prices have cooled from the hot market following the COVID-19 pandemic and should track closer to overall inflation, or below.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in September to its lowest level since April. Consumers particularly downgraded their assessments of current conditions, with their confidence in the job market decreasing for the ninth straight month. Low expectations remained at recessionary levels for the eighth month in a row. The business research group said inflation edged out tariffs as consumers’ top concern.
Unemployed job seekers outnumbered job openings in August for the first time in more than four years. A new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed demand for workers continuing to erode compared to supply. Employers posted nearly 7.2 million openings in August, up 3% from July but down 5.5% from the year before. Demand for employees reached an all-time high of 12 million openings in March 2022 but remains above the pre-pandemic level of 7 million. The rate of employees quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – was below the February 2020 level for the 22nd month in a row.
WednesdayManufacturing continued its slump in September, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index. The index signaled contraction for the seventh month in a row and the 33rd time in 35 months. The production component of the index showed expansion. The employment component indicated contraction for the eighth month in a row. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group frequently cited tariffs among their challenges. The ISM said the index reading suggested the U.S. economy is growing at an annual pace of 1.9%.
ADP said its national employment report showed private employers had a net loss of 32,000 jobs in September. The payroll services company said many of the jobs lost were in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and financial activities. Compared to September 2024, private employment was up 4.5%. ADP reported that wages also rose 4.5% from the year before. An economist for ADP said the report validated other signs that employers are being cautious about hiring.
A scheduled release of construction spending was delayed because of the federal government shutdown.
ThursdayScheduled reports on unemployment insurance claims and manufacturing orders were not released because of the federal government shutdown.
FridayFollowing three months of weak expansion, the U.S. services sector reached a break-even point between expansion and contraction in September. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index hit 50 for the first time since 2010. The key business activity component of the index contracted for the first time since May 2020 while growth in new orders slowed and hiring slumped for the fourth month in a row. The trade group said companies surveyed reported moderate to weak growth overall. Based on the past relationship between the index and gross domestic product, ISM said the economy appeared to be growing at an annual rate of 0.4%.
The September report on U.S. payroll employment and individual employment situations was delayed because of the federal government shutdown.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22781, up 296 points or 1.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6716, up 72 points or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46758, up 511 points or 1.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.12%, down 0.07 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Adam Bale*y
(with Max Hoelzl,engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 22-26, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayThe seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales soared 20.5% in August. The Commerce Department reported the sales rate was up more than 15% from the year before. At a pace of 800,000 new houses a month, sales were at their highest level since January 2022, just before the Federal Reserve Board began a series of interest rate increases aimed at lowering decades-high inflation. The supply of new houses for sale dipped to its lowest level in more than two years. The median sales price was $413,500, up 1.9% from August 2024.
ThursdayThe Commerce Department said orders for durable goods rose in August for the first time in three months. Demand for long-lasting manufactured products gained 2.9%, driven by orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding volatile costs for transportation goods, orders advanced 0.4%. Compared to August 2024, orders rose 1.7% overall and 1.9% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, added 0.6% from July and were up 2.4% from the year before.
The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, according to the final of three estimates of the gross domestic product. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the rate from 3.5% in the second estimated because of evidence of stronger consumer spending, which rose at a 2.5% annual pace, vs. 1.6% in the previous report. Overall, GDP rebounded from a decline of 0.6% in the first quarter, which was driven by a surge in imports leading up to increased U.S. tariffs on goods and services from other countries. The personal consumption expenditure index showed inflation rising 2.4% from the second quarter of 2024, thus continuing to outpace the 2% long-range target set by the Federal Reserve Board.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the second week in a row. The average was down 35% from its 58-year average, highlighting an ongoing reluctance by employers to let workers go. The Labor Department said nearly 1.8 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down 2.4% from the week before and up 5.7% from the same time last year.
Blaming elevated mortgage rates and low inventories, the National Association of Realtors reported a drop in existing home sales in August. The annual rate of 4 million houses sold was down 0.2% from July and up 1.8% from August 2024. Some 4.1 million sold in all of 2024, which was the lowest since 1995. The trade association said it expects decreasing mortgage rates and growing inventories to spur sales in coming months. It also noted the support of the wealth effect from higher equity in stocks and housing. The median sales price in August was $422,600, up 2% from the year before, the 26th consecutive month-to-month increase.
FridayAccounting for about 70% of U.S. gross domestic product, consumer spending is a key economic indicator. In its monthly reports on personal income and outlays, the Bureau of Economic Analysis provides estimates on consumer spending as well as updates on the personal consumption expenditure index, the Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation.
Another report, from the University of Michigan, uses surveys to measure consumer sentiment, which is considered an indication of future consumer spending. The sentiment index includes consumer opinions on current economic conditions as well as expectations for both the economy and personal finances.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22484, down 147 points or 0.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6644, down 21 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46247, down 68 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.19%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting* * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom**
with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik
Week in Review (Sept. 15-19, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayIn a sign of consumer spending resilience, the Commerce Department reported a 0.6% rise in retail sales in August. Sales fell in only four of 13 categories: Furniture stores, health-and-beauty centers, general merchandisers and miscellaneous retailers. Gainers were led by a 2% increase from online retailers. Excluding sales at car dealers and gas stations, retail revenue grew 0.7%. Adjusted for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.2% in August.
U.S. industrial output rose 0.1% in August, following a 0.4% setback in July. The auto industry was the chief driver, the Federal Reserve reported. Output at U.S. car makers increased 1.3% from July. Since August 2024, overall industrial production was up 0.9%, with manufacturing also up 0.9%. Meanwhile, capacity utilization – an early indicator of rising inflation – rose marginally but remained below the 53-year average, last reached in late 2022.
WednesdayRates of housing starts and building permits continued to slide in August, according to the Commerce Department. The annual pace of starts dropped nearly 8.5% from July and was off 6% from the year before, with critical single-family structures down nearly 12% from August 2024. For the 17th straight month, housing starts lagged the level set just before the COVID-19 pandemic, which was the fastest pace of building since late 2006. Meanwhile, permits – an indication of future housing construction – declined to the lowest level since May 2020, down almost 4% from July and 11% lower than August 2024. The pace of houses under construction continued falling from its all-time peak two years ago.
The policy-making body of the Federal Reserve Board reduced short-term lending rates by a quarter point and signaled more cuts possibly before the end of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee cited labor market risks as its chief reason to lower rates for the first time since December. It referred to “somewhat elevated” inflation, which could deter more aggressive rate reductions. The Fed has a dual mandate from Congress to keep prices stable and employment maximized.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in six weeks. The measure was 34% below the all-time average and 16% above its low point just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Labor Department. More than 1.8 million Americans were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, down nearly 5% from the week before and up 6% from the same time last year.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators declined 0.5% in August following a revise increase on 0.1% in July. The six-month slide of the index worsened to 2.8% from a 0.9% decline in the previous six months. The business research group blamed tariffs for dampening U.S. growth and said only stock prices and credit indicators have made positive contributions to the index. Weaker factory orders, consumer expectations and labor market indicators were the biggest deterrents. The group forecast a 1.6% rise in gross domestic product for 2025, “a substantial slowdown” from 2.8% in 2024.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22631, up 478 points or 2.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6664, up 80 points or 1.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 46315, up 481 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.14%, down 0.08 point
Advisors on this Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 8-12, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayU.S. consumer credit debt outstanding surged in July, rising at a 9.7% annual rate, the most in more than four years. The Federal Reserve reported that the increase in so-called revolving credit outpaced overall consumer credit debt, which rose at a 3.8% annual rate. Non-revolving credit, entailing student debt and car loans, rose at a 1.8% pace. Since peaking in October, credit card debt has tapered off and plateaued. Economists follow credit card use because it suggests consumers’ confidence in their spending, which accounts for more two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, declined slightly in August. The 0.1% setback marked the index’s first decline in four months, caused by a fall in prices for services. Goods prices rose for the fourth month in a row. Since August 2024, the index was up 2.6%, down from a 12-month increase of 3.1% in July. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.3% from July and was up 2.8% from the year before.
ThursdayThe broadest measure of inflation rose in August, reaching its highest level since January. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% from the month before, led by a 0.4% gain in shelter costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to the same time last year, the inflation rate rose to 2.9%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy items, rose 3.1% from the year before, unchanged from July. The Federal Reserve Board has a long-range target of 2% inflation and used higher interest rates to dampen price increases since the CPI hit a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022. Analysts expect the central bank to resume cutting rates this month to address concerns of a weakened labor market.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth week in a row to the highest level since June. According to Labor Department data, the average moved to 240,500 new applications, which was 34% below the average since 1967 and 19% higher than just before the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 19 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before and more than 5% higher than the year before.
FridayBased in part on continued concerns over tariffs, consumer sentiment continues to weaken, according to the University of Michigan. A preliminary reading of the university’s September index showed sentiment dropping nearly 5% below where it ended August and down 21% from where it was a year ago. Consumer expectations declined more than their feelings toward current economic conditions. About 60% of the survey respondents expressed unprompted fears about the effects of increased tariffs on inflation. Sentiment still was higher than recent lows in April and May, just after stricter trade policies were announced. Economists consider sentiment a leading indicator of consumer spending.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 22154, up 453 points or 2.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6584, up 103 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 45834, up 433 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.06%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show KyleTetting* * Tom Pappenfus**
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 1-5, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets and government agencies closed for Labor Day
TuesdayThe manufacturing sector contracted in August for the sixth month in a row and the 32nd time in 34 months. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the rate of decline slowed slightly from July with key components in its index – new orders and supplier deliveries – expanding. Hiring contracted for the seventh straight month. The trade group said based on past experience, the index suggested the U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of 1.8%.
The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.1% in July and was down 2.8% from the same time last year. After cresting in May 2024, such expenditures have suffered their longest slowdown since the housing collapse of the Great Recession. Spending on residential construction, accounting for 42% of total expenditures, rose 0.1% from June but was down 5.1% from the year before. Manufacturing, representing more than 10% of all construction spending, was nearly 7% below its July 2024 level.
WednesdayEmployer demand for workers slowed in July with job openings declining below to 7.2 million, below the number of unemployed job seekers for the first time since 2021. July’s job openings still exceeded the number of unemployed workers looking for work, but it was down from a record 12 million posts in the spring of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In a sign that workers continue to lack confidence in the labor market, the number of workers quitting their jobs to seek other positions stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 20th month in a row.
The Commerce Department said factory orders sank in July for the third time in four months. The measure of demand for manufactured goods fell 1.3%, led by sales of commercial aircraft. Through the first seven months of 2025, orders were up 3.5% from the year before. Excluding requests for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.6% from June and were up 0.7% from July 2024. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, rose 1.1% for the month and were up 2.3% from the year before.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit widened by 32% in July to $78.3 billion. Exports rose 0.3% from June, led by non-monetary gold and computer accessories. Imports increased 5.9%, led by non-monetary gold and computers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that through July, the trade gap widened almost 31% from the year before with a 5.5% gain in exports and a 10.9% rise in imports. Trade deficits detract from U.S. economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, reaching 12% above the pre-pandemic level, though it was 36% below the 58-year average. The Labor Department reported that total claims dipped 1% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was up more than 5% from the year before.
Worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, reflecting a 4.4% uptick in output and a 1.1% increase in hours worked. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report was up from a previous productivity estimate of 2.4%. Labor costs rose at an annual rate of 1% Since the second quarter of 2024, productivity rose 1.5%, and labor costs increased 2.5%. According to the report, average annual productivity has grown 1.8% since the end of 2019, ahead of the 1.5% pace during the previous economic cycle, which started in 2007. Since 1947, productivity has averaged 2.1%.
The U.S. service sector expanded in August for the third month in a row and the 13th time in 14 months. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey of purchasing managers showed continued concerns about the effects of tariffs. The trade group said the index suggested the U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.1%.
FridayU.S. employers added jobs in August but at a continued slower rate, in another sign that the labor market is weakening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls expanded by 22,000 jobs, barely advancing from their level in April. The agency also revised June and July job counts downward by 21,000, including a net loss of 13,000 jobs in June, the first setback since the end of 2020. Hiring of temporary help employees, an indicator of labor trends, fell to the lowest level since 2020 and was 21% below its peak two years ago. The average hourly wage rose 3.7% from the year before, still higher than overall inflation, but the lowest rate in 13 months. The unemployment rate for August rose slightly to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. A measure of underemployment also rose to its highest level in nearly four years.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21700, up 245 points or 1.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6482, up 21 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 45401, down 144 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.09%, down 0.14 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Mike Hoelzl * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 25-29, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe annual rate of new home sales fell 0.6% in July and was more than 8% below its year-ago pace, the Commerce Department reported. The sales pace was below the pre-pandemic level for the seventh month in a row, and the supply of new houses on the market remained above the pre-pandemic mark as it has since January 2022. As a result of weaker demand and stronger supply, the median sales price in July was nearly 6% lower than the year before, at $403,800.
TuesdayOverall housing inflation continued to decelerate in June, slipping under the general pace of inflation for the second month in a row, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index. Month-to-month, prices actually decreased 0.3% from May, after adjusting for seasonal fluctuation. And compared to the year before, prices rose 1.9% in June vs. 2.7% inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index. An analyst for the index cited a “continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market” in which price increases may be tracking closer to overall inflation. That would mean slower wealth accumulation for homeowners but a healthier housing market long-term.
Manufacturing demand dropped in July for the third time in four months, mostly on the wings of fallen orders for commercial aircraft. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders sank 2.8% from June, though they were up 7.3% from July 2024. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 1.1% in July, with a 1.9% increase from the same time last year. Orders for core capital goods orders, a measure of business investment, gained 1.1% from June and were up 2.3% from July 2024.
Amid growing concerns about tariffs and their contribution to inflation, consumer confidence declined slightly in August, though it stayed near the mood of the past three months. The Conference Board reported that overall expectations stayed at a level associated with recessions, and consumer views of the job market fell for the eighth month in a row. The business research group said consumers’ outlook for stocks fell slightly, with about half expecting stock prices to rise in the next year and about 30% expecting lower prices.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayBecause of slightly higher consumer spending and a lower decline in investments, the U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annual pace in the second quarter. That was up from an initial estimate of 3% growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said it raised its estimate for the gross domestic product in part because personal consumption rose at a 1.6% annual rate. A prior estimate paced consumer spending at 1.4%. It was the second weakest quarter for consumer spending in two years. A drop in imports also spurred economic growth after surging in the first quarter when companies anticipated higher tariffs. Imports detract from GDP. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 2.4% from the year before. That was the smallest increase since the third quarter of 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row, suggesting employers were more willing to let workers go. According to Labor Department data, new jobless claims reached their highest level in six weeks. They remained 37% below the 58-year average. Total claims fell 0.9% from the week before to just under 2 million. That was up 5.5% from the same time last year.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index sank in July. The trade group reported continued reluctance among would-be buyers. The association said commitments to sales dipped 0.4% from June. They were up 0.7% from July 2024, which at the time was a 23-year low. The index reading was nearly 30% below the baseline for sales activity, set in 2001. In a statement, the Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said: “Even with modest improvements in mortgage rates, housing affordability, and inventory, buyers still remain hesitant.”
FridayPersonal spending rose a steady 0.5% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The spending increase slightly outpaced the month’s 0.4% gain in personal income. The report showed heavier consumer spending on autos and insurance, with lower outlays for restaurants and hotels. The Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation rose 2.6% from July 2024. That was unchanged from June. Inflation had been as low as 2.2% in April, closer to the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. The PCE reached a four-decade high of 7.2% in mid-2022.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index sank again in August. Expectations for higher prices clouded views of the economy, buying conditions and personal finances. Though up about 11% from its lows in April and May, the index fell 6% from where it ended in July. It was down 14% from August 2024. The university said the survey-based index showed broad declines across demographic and political affiliations. Sentiment is considered a bellwether for consumer spending, the chief driver of U.S. gross domestic product.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21456, down 41 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6460, down 7 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 45545, down 87 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.23%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 18-22, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Commerce Department reported mixed news on the annual rate of building permits and housing starts for July. New construction increased 5.2% from the June pace and was nearly 13% ahead of the year before, despite conventional mortgage rates hovering above 6.5% and widespread uncertainty over the shake-up of U.S. tariffs. Permits, an indication of prospects for future construction, fell to the slowest pace in more than five years. Meantime, the number of housing units under construction continued to decline, down 21% from the all-time peak in late 2022.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row. An indication of employers’ willingness to let go of workers, the rolling average was 38% below the long-term average dating back to 1967. Total jobless claims dropped 1.3% from the week before to 2 million, which was up 5.1% from the same time in 2024.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in July, after a decline of 0.3% in June. The business research group said consumer pessimism and weak factory orders were the biggest drags on the index, offset somewhat by rising stock prices and falling unemployment claims. The six-month decline of the index accelerated to 2.7% from a 1% setback in the previous six months. The Conference Board forecast that the U.S. economy would avoid recession in the near term but that effects from higher tariffs would slow overall growth. The group expects gross domestic product to rise 1.6% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026. GDP grew by 2.8% in 2024.
Existing home sales rose 2% in July and were up 0.8% from the same time last year, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales reached an annual pace of 4.01 million houses, historically slow, but the trade group found encouraging signs from slightly rising inventories and narrowing price increases. The median sales price was $422,400, up just 0. 2% from the year before and the 25th consecutive gain. The Realtors said wages are outpacing home prices and estimated that about half of the houses sold cost less than a year ago. The group estimated that the average U.S. house appreciated in value by 49% since the pandemic.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21497, down 126 points or 0.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6467, up 17 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 45632, up 686 points or 1.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.26%, down 0.07 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 11-15, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe pace of broad inflation stayed above long-range Federal Reserve targets in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% from July 2027. The rate was unchanged from June and continued to outpace the Fed’s aim of 2%. It was down from a 41-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Shelter costs were the “primary factor” for the 0.2% increase in the index from June, according to the report, with food prices unchanged overall and the cost of gasoline down 2.2% for the month. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose at the fastest pace in six months and was at a five-month high, year to year. Some analysts pointed at higher prices for goods such as furniture and consumer electronics as early signs of inflation fueled by higher U.S. tariffs.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level rose 0.9% in July and was up 3.3% from the year before, according to the Producer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the price for services increased the most in more than three years. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, also rose the most since March 2022.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in eight weeks. An indication of employers’ willingness to let go of workers, the rolling average was 39% below the long-term average dating back to 1967. Total jobless claims dropped 0.2% from the week before to just over 2 million, which was up 5.2% from the same time in 2024.
FridayThe Commerce Department reported on retail sales for July. Economists watch the retail numbers because they measure about two-thirds of U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of U.S. economic activity, as measured by the gross domestic product.
The Federal Reserve reported on industrial production in July, reflecting both the output and capacity of manufacturers, utilities and the mining industry. The report includes updates on how much of their capacities industries are using. High capacity utilization rates can portend higher inflation as industries raise prices to expand.
The University of Michigan reported on its consumer sentiment index. The preliminary August reading of the survey-based index shows how U.S. consumers are feeling toward current economic conditions and their personal financial situations. It also indicates expectations for future conditions, including inflation. Economists monitor sentiment as a predictor of consumer spending.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21623, up 173 points or 0.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6450, up 60 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44943, up 771 points or 1.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.33%, up 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 4-8, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayA deep drop in demand for commercial aircraft and parts sank factory orders in June. The Commerce Department reported that total orders declined 4.8% from May, the second setback in three months. Compared to the year before, orders were up 3.8%. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand for factory goods increased 0.4% for the month and were up 0.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, fell 0.8% from May and were up 2% from June 2024.
TuesdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed 16% in June to $60.2 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The value of outgoing goods and services decreased 0.5%, led by sales of industrial materials. Imports sank 3.7% from May led by pharmaceuticals and automotive products. Swings in exports and imports have been distorted in recent months as companies and consumers have tried to plan for drastic changes in U.S. tariff rates. Through the first half of 2025, the trade gap expanded 38.3% from the year before with gains of 5.2% in exports and 12.1% in imports. The trade deficit detracts from U.S. economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product.
The non-manufacturing sector stayed in expansion mode again in July, although at a slower pace, according to the ISM Services Index. The survey-based report from the Institute for Supply Management last registered a contraction in May. The trade group cited resilience among service companies with reports of negative impacts from recent seasonal and weather conditions. Survey respondents shared ongoing concerns about the costs of tariffs and said some commodity prices are increasing.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayWorker productivity increased at a solid 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The gain came on 3.7% higher output with workers putting in 1.3% more hours. Year to year, productivity rose 1.3%. Unit labor costs rose at a 1.6% annual rate and were up 2.6% from the year before. In the current business cycle, which began at the end of 2019, productivity has been growing at a 1.8% annual pace, compared to a 1.5% rate during the previous cycle, which started in 2007. The average productivity rate since 1947 is 2.1%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the seventh week in a row to the lowest level since April. The indicator of employer willingness to let workers go stayed 39% below the all-time average, according to Labor Department data. The level was 7% above where it was just before the 2020 COVID pandemic. The total number of claims stayed just over 2 million, which was up 3.8% from the same time last year.
In a sign of weakening consumer confidence, credit card debt receded in June for the third time in four months. The Federal Reserve reported a 1% decline in the annual rate of revolving consumer debt outstanding, following a 3.5% setback in May. The pace of total consumer debt rose at a 1.8% pace from May, including a 2.7% increase in non-revolving debt – mostly car financing and student loans. With about 70% of U.S. economic growth relying on consumer spending, the drop in credit card debt suggests a drop-off in commitment to buying. Credit card debt grew at a 2.3% rate in the second quarter but was down 3.9% from its peak last October.
FridayNo major releases
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21450, up 800 points or 3.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6389, up 151 points or 2.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44176, up 587 points or 1.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.29%, up 0.06 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Art Rothschild * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 28-Aug. 1, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major reports or releases
TuesdayThe year-to-year change in residential prices continued to slow in May, dipping below the overall inflation rate. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 2.3% from the year before, compared to a 2.7% gain in April. That compared to a Consumer Price Index inflation rate of 2.4% in May. Month to month, seasonally adjusted home prices fell 0.3% in May, the third consecutive decline. In a release, an analyst with the index said in part: “With affordability still stretched and inventory constrained, national home prices are holding steady, but barely.”
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose slightly in July, though expectations were low enough to signal recession for the sixth straight month. The business research group said generally consumers’ moods have stabilized after rebounding from their drop in April. Tariffs and anticipation that they would result in higher inflation continued to top consumer concerns. Consumer assessments of job availability weakened for the seventh month in a row.
Employers’ demand for workers eased slightly in June, with job openings falling to 7.4 million, down 3.6% from May. The level remained above its peak prior to the COVID-19 pandemic but was down from a record 12.1 million in 2022. Openings continued to outpace the number of unemployed individuals seeking work. Meantime, the number and rate of workers quitting their jobs stayed below the pre-pandemic level, suggesting workers had less confidence in finding new jobs. Quits have been lower than the pre-pandemic mark since late 2023.
WednesdayU.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2025, overcoming a first-quarter decline. According to an advance report on gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% from the first three months of the year, compared to a 0.5% setback in the first quarter. Faster growth was attributed to increased consumer spending, which nearly tripled its pace, and a plunge in imports, which ballooned in the first quarter in anticipation of increased tariffs. Imports detract from GDP growth.
Despite recent growth in inventories, the National Association of Realtors reported its pending home sales index declined by 0.8% in June. Contract signings lagged 2.8% behind the June 2024 index. The trade group’s index was 28% below its 2001 baseline, which represents what the group considers a normal sales range to keep up with population growth. Final sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending – which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP – rose 0.3% in June, following no change in May. Personal income also gained 0.3% for the month. As a result, the personal saving rate stayed at 4.5% of disposable income. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, rose 2.6% from June 2024. That was up from a 2.4% inflation rate in May and 2.2% in April. Three years ago, the PCE index reached a four-decade high of 7.1%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the sixth week in a row, meeting its lowest level since April. Labor Department data shows that the measure of employers’ willingness to let go of workers was 39% below the all-time average. It was 10% higher than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down marginally from the week before but up 10.2% from the same time last year.
FridayU.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July, according to the employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gains fell below the 12-month average of 129,000 new jobs, and additions in April and May were revised down to a combined 33,000 from a previous estimate of 291,000. The unemployment rate rose marginally to 4.2%, staying within a narrow range set in May 2024. The U-6 underemployment rate reached 7.9% in July, staying above its pre-pandemic level for the 23rd month in a row. Employment in temporary help services – often a harbinger of job conditions – hit its lowest point since September 2020.
The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fifth month in a row and the 31st time in 33 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed further weakening from June. The ISM said 79% of the sector’s GDP declined in July, vs. 46% in June. The ISM said the index suggested the U.S. economy overall was growing at a 1.6% annual rate.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined in June for the second month in a row, dipping 0.4% from the seasonally adjusted annual pace in May. Housing, which accounted for 42% of all construction spending, pulled back 0.7%. Year to year, total construction spending was 2.9% behind the June 2024 pace. Spending on residential building sank 6% from the year before.
Often a pre-cursor to spending, consumer sentiment improved marginally in July. The University of Michigan said its survey-based index rose for the second month in a row, though it’s still “broadly negative.” The index was 7.1% lower than it was in July 2024. Overall opinions were broadly shared across demographic and political affiliations, the university said, although “a rise in sentiment among stock holders was partially offset by a decline among consumers who do not own stocks.”
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20650, down 458 points or 2.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6238, down 151 points or 2.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43589, down 1313 points or 2.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.22%, down 0.17 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowAdam Baley
Dave Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 21-25, 2025)Significant economic indicators & reportsMondayThe Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators slipped 0.3% in June. The gauge from the business research group fell 2.8% in the first half of 2025, declining from a drop of 1.3% in the second half of 2024. The report said even the stock market rally couldn’t offset weaker conditions led by lower consumer expectations, fewer factory orders and rising jobless claims. A warning sign of recession flashed for the third month in a row, but the group said it’s still not forecasting a downturn. It projected a 1.6% increase in GDP for 2025, based on slower consumer spending because of expected higher prices from tariffs. The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in 2024.
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayThe National Association of Realtors reported continued declines in existing home sales in June, lagging the sales pace of 2024, which was the lowest since 1995. The trade group said the annual rate of sales slipped 2.7% from May to 3.9 million houses. The group cited insufficient inventory as an ongoing challenge, while new construction hasn’t kept up with population growth. It blamed mortgage rates for dampening demand. The imbalance between supply and demand resulted in the 24th consecutive increase in median sales price, up 2% from the year before to a record $435,300.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row to the lowest level since mid-April. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average 38% below the 58-year average. It was up 8% from just before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the latest week, more than 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, up 5.9% from the week before and up 3.5% from the same time last year.
The annual rate of new home sales rose slightly in June, hovering in the lower end of a narrow range that has prevailed since mid-2023. The pace was 11% below the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of unsold new houses rose to the highest rate since October 2020. The median price of new houses was $401,800, 2.9% lower than in June 2024, the fifth time in six months the price declined from the year before.
FridayManufacturing demand fell in June for the second time in three months, with durable goods orders plummeting 9.3% from May, largely because of a steep declined in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2%. Compared to June 2024, total orders were up 7.9% – again because of pricey aircraft sales – but rose 1.6% excluding transportation. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, fell 0.7% from May and increased 2.1% from June 2024.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 21108, up 522 points or 2.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6389, up 129 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44902, up 530 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.39%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Steve Giles*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 14-18, 2025)Significant economic indicators & reportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayThe broadest measure of inflation rose at a 2.7% annual rate in June, up the second month in a row after hitting a four-year low in April. But the rate also was less than one-third of where it peaked three years ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% from May, largely because of increased costs for shelter. Other notable price gains included household furnishings, appliances, toys and apparel, which some analysts suggested might be showing signs of increased tariffs. Gasoline prices rose in June for the first time in five months. The 2.7% year-to-year increase stayed above the 2% long-term target of the Federal Reserve. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, the core index rose 0.2% from May and was up 2.9% from the same time last year.
WednesdayWholesale inflation was subdued in June. The Producer Price Index was unchanged from May and up 2.3% from the year before, the slowest gain since September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that higher prices for goods offset a slight decrease in service costs in June. Excluding volatile costs for food, energy and trade services, inflation on the wholesale level also was unchanged from May and 2.5% higher than June 2024, which was the lowest one-year rate since November 2023.
The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose in June for the first time in four months. Output from manufacturing, mining and utilities grew 0.3% from May and was up 0.7% from June 2024. The annual pace of industrial production for the second quarter was 1.1%. Meantime, industrial capacity usage – which can indicate future inflation pressure – rose for the first time since February to 77.6%, below its 50-year average for the 44th consecutive month.
ThursdayA key measure of consumer spending rebounded in June after two months of decline. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.6% from May. Of 13 categories of retailers, 10 had higher sales, led by car dealers, home-and-garden centers, clothing stores and restaurants and bars. Increased sales can reflect increased volume but also higher prices, which some analysts expect in goods and services affected by higher tariffs. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.3% in June.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, the Labor Department reported. The measure of employers’ plans to let workers go was 37% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. It was up 11% from its mark just before the pandemic. In the latest week, total claims dropped 0.2% to 1.9 million, which was up nearly 6% from the same time last year.
FridayThe U.S. housing market picked up in June, based on the annual pace for housing starts and building permits. The Commerce Department reported that new construction rose 4.6% from May, which was the weakest month since the COVID-19 pandemic. Housing starts were on par with their pace in late 2006 and below the pre-pandemic level for the 15th month in a row. Building permits, signifying future construction, rose 0.2% from May and were level with activity in mid-2007.
Stalled by anticipation of tariff-triggered inflation, consumer sentiment rose marginally from June though it was 16% below where it started the year, according to a preliminary report by the University of Michigan. Seen as a precursor to consumer spending, sentiment remained low historically, the report said, and it likely won’t improve until consumers feel beter about price increases.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20896, up 310 points or 1.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6297, up 37 points or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44342, down 29 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.43%, up 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Kendall Bauer*
(with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang)
Week in Review (July 7-11, 2025)Significant Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayU.S. consumer spending slowed in May with credit card debt decreasing for the fourth time in seven months. The Federal Reserve Board reported revolving consumer credit debt outstanding sank by an annual rate of 3.2% in May. Since peaking in October, the measure was down 3.8%. Consumer spending driving more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, so economists watch credit card debt for signs of consumer confidence and capacity. Non-revolving debt, including student loans and vehicle financing, rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in May.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row to its lowest level in five weeks. The average dipped 35% from the 58-year average but was 17% higher than just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Total claims rose 2% in the latest week to more than 1.9 million, which was 4.5% higher than the same time last year.
FridayNo major releases
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20586, down 16 points or 0.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6260, down 20 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44372, down 457 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.42%, up 0.08 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Country biased investingFor mostly good reasons, especially in the U.S., investors tend to put money more in domestic-based concerns.
In a special Independence Day Money Talk Podcast, Kyle Tetting, Art Rothschild and Dave Sandstrom talk about the historical practice and performance of home country bias. They also explore why it may be making sense to diversify holdings more into non-U.S. investments.
Learn more
- Over there: Investing in a global economy, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- 5 reasons to watch the dollar, by Steve Giles
- My outlook for investing in 2025: 2-0-2-5, by Adam Baley
- International Investing, from the Securities and Exchange Commission
- How to Use International Stocks in Your Portfolio, by Morningstar
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (June 23-27, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe National Association of Realtors said existing home sales rose in May while remaining near the slowest in decades. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million houses sold was 0.8% ahead of April’s pace. It was 0.7% lower than the year before and below the 4.06 million houses sold for all of 2024, which was the weakest since 1995. The trade association blamed “persistently high mortgage rates” but noted that inventories are building, up 6% from April and up 20% from May 2024. Increased supply wasn’t enough to lower prices. The median sales price rose to $422,800, up 1.7% from May 2024, the 23rd consecutive increase.
TuesdayHousing prices increased in April at their slowest pace in nearly two years, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Continuing a broad deceleration, prices in April rose 2.7% from April 2024, down from a 3.4% year-to-year increase in March and the lowest since August 2023. Seasonally adjusted, the index shrank 0.4% from March. In a statement, S&P said the index suggests ongoing challenges for the housing market, with “severely constrained” supply. It said demand was hampered by monthly payments “near generational highs.” Housing prices have been a sticking point for Federal Reserve efforts to slow down overall inflation.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped in June amid ongoing concerns about tariffs. Expectations dipped well below a measure suggesting near-term recession, and attitudes toward job availability stayed positive while declining for the sixth month straight. The business research group reported a broad demise in consumer confidence, led by those survey respondents identifying as Republican. Among the few categories in which consumers reported increased activity was dining out.
WednesdayThe annual rate of new home sales sank nearly 14% in May and was down 6% from the previous year. May marked the fourth time in five months sales fell below the pre-pandemic level. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of new houses for sale was 8.9 months’ worth, up from 7.6 the year before. The median sales price of a new house rose 3% from May 2024 to $426,200.
ThursdayThe U.S. economy shrank at an annual pace of 0.5% in the first quarter, the first setback in four years, according to the last of three estimates of gross domestic product. The rate was worse than a previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction, mostly because of weaker consumer spending, which drives more than two-thirds of the economy. Initially reported at 1.2%, consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 0.5%, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 recession. Consumer spending slowed after surging at the end of 2024, a buying spree attributed to the anticipation of higher prices from increased tariffs. Similarly, imports – which weigh against economic growth – rose at record levels in the first quarter, contributing to the economy’s slowdown.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell slightly for the first time in four weeks, staying near a two-year high. Labor Department figures show the moving average was 32% below the 58-year average. More than 1.8 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down less than 1% from the week before and up 5% from the year before.
Orders for durable goods rose 16.4% in May, boosted by large orders of commercial aircraft. The measure of manufacturing demand was up 6.9% from May 2024. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders increased 0.5% from April and were up 1% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, which indicate business investments, rose 1.7% for the month and were 1.5% higher than the year before.
Pending home sales advanced 1.8% in May but continued to reflect a weak housing market, according to an index from the National Association of Realtors. Demand for existing houses was more than 1% above where it was the year before but about 28% below the index base set by the trade group in 2001. The association cited steady jobs and rising wages as positive factor for real estate sales but cited mortgage rates as a deterrent.
FridayInflation stayed subdued in May amid lower consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation rose to 2.3% from the year before, down from a four-decade high of 7.2% three years ago, but still above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditures index fell 0.1% from April following increased spending in anticipation of higher prices from tariffs. The personal saving rate fell to 4.5% of disposable income from 4.9% in April, as personal income declined 0.4%.
A precursor to consumer spending, consumer sentiment, rose in June for the first time in six months though it remained mired in expectations of a slower economy and higher inflation. The University of Michigan said its longstanding consumer survey found attitudes 16% more optimistic than in May but 16% lower than a year ago and 18% below a post-election peak in December. Fears of tariffs softened somewhat in June but still fueled beliefs that inflation would be up 5% in the next year. That was down from an expectation of 6.6% inflation in May.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20273, up 826 points or 4.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6173, up 205 points or 3.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43819, up 1612 points or 3.8% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.28%, down 0.09 point
Advisors on this week’s podcast Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by *Blake Miller*)
Week in Review (June 16-20, 2025)Significant Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major reports
TuesdayThe Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.9% in May after dropping 0.1% in April. The back-to-back setbacks in consumer spending followed buying sprees amid anticipation of higher prices from escalated tariffs. By category, sales declined in seven of 13 retail groups, including car dealers, appliance centers and bars and restaurants. Gas station revenue also fell, though that was tied to lower gas prices. Retail sales make up two-thirds of the consumer spending that accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
U.S. industrial production sank 0.2% in May, the second drop-off in three months, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing output rose slightly for the month but was offset by production declines among utilities. Car makers accounted for the bulk of increased factory production. Excluding automotive, manufacturing output fell 0.3%. Compared to May 2024, total industrial production was up a mild 0.6%. Capacity utilization, considered a leading indicator of potential inflation, fell to 77.4% in May, remaining below the long-term average of 79.6%.
WednesdayThe annual pace of housing starts and building permits slowed in May to levels not seen since the COVID-19 recession. A joint report from the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development showed new construction down 10% from April’s pace while permits sank 2%. Both figures reached their lowest points since mid-2020. At the same time, the pace of houses under construction and as well as those being completed continued to slow in May, though they remained above the rates at the onset of the pandemic, which was the highest level since before the Great Recession.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims reached its highest point in nearly two years. The measure of employers’ willingness to part with workers rose for the third week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks. Still, claims were 32% below the 58-year average; they were 22% above their low just before the pandemic. The Labor Department reported more than 1.8 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 4% from the week before and up 7% from the same time last year.
ThursdayMarkets closed for Juneteenth Day
FridayThe Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in May, following a downwardly revised drop of 1.4% in April. The business research group said the six-month decline of its index accelerated to 2.7% through May from 1.4% the previous month. A rebound in stock prices was one of the only bright spots in May, with measures worsening for consumer confidence, factory orders, initial unemployment claims and housing permits. The Conference Board cited higher tariffs for slower growth in gross domestic product. It forecast a 1.6% rise in GDP for 2025 and said 2026 will be lower. GDP expanded by 2.8% in 2024.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19447, up 41 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5968, down 9 points or 0.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42207, down 9 points or 0.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.38%, down 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Mike Hoelzl * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)
Week in Review (June 9-13, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major reports
TuesdayNo major reports
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation rose slightly to 2.4% in May, still within striking distance of the long-range Federal Reserve target. The Consumer Price Index was up from 2.3% in May, which was the lowest rate in more than five years, and down from a decades-high 9.1% in June 2022. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shelter costs continued to boost overall inflation. If not for housing, inflation was up 1.5% from May 2024, the third month in a row below its pre-pandemic level. In other key measures, gas prices declined for the fourth month in a row, and the cost of eggs dropped for the second straight month.
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level also showed mild growth in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index rose 0.1% from April, the first gain in three months. Compared to 12 months earlier, wholesale inflation rose 2.6% in May, compared to 2.5% in April and more than 11% in mid-2022. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI was up 0.1% from April. Core PPI was up 2.7% from May 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the sixth time in seven weeks to its highest level since September 2023. Still, the indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 34% below its 58-year average. According to the Labor Department, total claims for jobless benefits fell 1% from the week before to slightly less than 1.8 million, which was 5% above where it stood at the same time last year.
FridayAccompanying short-term easing in U.S. trade policies, consumer sentiment rose in early June for the first time in six months. Overall confidence in the economy and personal finances was still 20% lower than in December, according to the University of Michigan. A preliminary June reading of the university’s longstanding consumer surveys showed sentiment still broadly guarded with expectations that no matter where tariff rates land, they’ll increase inflation.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19407, down 123 points or 0.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5977, down 23 points or 0.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42198, down 565 points or 1.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.42%, down 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (June 2-6, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing sector shrank again in May. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index landed under 50 for the third month in a row and the 29th time in 30 months, suggesting the industry was contracting. The trade group reported further slowdowns in measures of demand and output with weakening inputs. ISM surveys showed supply managers citing the uncertainty of “tariff whiplash” and delays and cuts in federal government spending. The ISM said the index suggested the U.S. economy was shrinking at an annual rate of 1.7%.
The pace of construction spending fell 0.4% in April, the second consecutive setback. The annual rate of $2.1 trillion was down 0.5% from April 2024, the Commerce Department reported. Residential spending, which accounted for about 42% of the total, dropped 0.9% from the March pace and was down almost 5% from the year before. Nearly every category of private-sector construction spending declined while government spending expanded, led by streets and highways.
TuesdayU.S. employers posted nearly 7.4 million job openings in April, up slightly from March and still above the pre-pandemic level. Want ads continued to outnumber unemployed job seekers, but by a relatively narrow gap, especially since openings peaked at 12.1 million in mid-2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall levels of hiring and separations stayed about the same since March. The degree to which workers were quitting their jobs voluntarily – a sign of worker confidence in the hiring market – remained below the pre-pandemic level for the 17th month in a row.
Demand for manufactured goods fell in April for the first time in five months, largely because of a decline in orders for commercial aircraft. The Commerce Department said factory orders shrank 3.7% from March and were up 2% from April 2024. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, sales declined 0.5% for the month and were up 0.4% from the year before. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, increased by 0.3% in April and were up 1.3% from the same time last year.
WednesdayThe U.S. services industry contracted in May for the first time in 11 months and only the fourth time in five years, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM services index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, suggested the largest sector of the economy receded slightly because of broad uncertainty over wobbly tariff policies. Correspondents expressed difficulty forecasting and planning. The trade group said based on past relationships between the index and U.S. gross domestic product, the overall economy grew in May at an annual rate of 0.4%.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed 56% to $61.6 billion in April after anticipation of tariffs led to a record trade gap in March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. exports rose 3% in April, led by industrial supplies and materials. Imports sank 16%, led by pharmaceuticals. Through the first four months of 2025, the trade gap grew 66% from the year before. In that time, exports gained 5.5%, and imports rose 18%. Trade deficits count against gross domestic product, the main measure of the U.S. economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity fell at an annual rate of 1.5% in the first quarter. It was the first decline since the second quarter of 2022 and was nearly twice as severe as a preliminary estimate for the latest quarter. Non-farm output dropped at an annual pace of 0.2% in the first three months of the year while hours worked rose at a 1.3% rate. Since the first quarter of 2024, productivity climbed 1.3%. Since just before the pandemic, productivity has increased by an annual rate of 1.8%, compared to a 1.5% pace in the previous business cycle, which began in 2007. Since 1947, productivity has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth time in six weeks and continued to suggest a tight hiring market. The measure of employers’ willingness to let workers go was 35% below its average since 1967, according to Labor Department data. Just over 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.2% from the week before but up almost 7% from the same time last year.
FridayU.S. employers added 139,000 jobs in May, more than analysts expected and near the 12-month average, according to the May jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employers have padded payrolls for 53rd months in a row, showing a steady appetite for workers. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2% for the third month in a row, remaining in a 4%-4.2% range for the last year. The annual pace in wage increases stayed at 3.9%, staying ahead of overall inflation, as it has for the last two years.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19530, up 416 points or 2.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6000, up 89 points or 1.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42763, up 493 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.51%, up 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (May 26-30, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets and government closed for Memorial Day
TuesdayThe Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 6.3% in April, the first drop in five months. A plunge in orders for aircraft led the decline. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders grew by 0.2%. Compared to April 2024, overall orders rose 1.9%; excluding transportation, orders advanced 1.2%. A proxy for business investments shrank 1.3% from March and was up 1.3% from April 2024.
Housing prices continued to decelerate in March, contracting 0.3% after seasonal adjustment. Reflecting a cooling trend that began mid-2024, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index showed home prices up 3.4% from March 2024, down from a 4% growth rate in February. But steady demand and limited supply appeared to be combining for a spring revival in prices, with a shift “from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery,” the report said. An S&P analyst noted that demand persisted despite “severely constrained” affordability.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in May for the first time in five months, largely influenced by the latest shifts in U.S. tariff policies, especially with China. The business and research group said expectations surged from April, though they remained at a level suggesting looming recession. More households intended purchases of houses, cars and appliances. Some 44% of those surveyed expected higher stock prices in the next year, up from 37.6% in April. On the other hand, confidence in the job market soured for the fifth month in a row.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe U.S. economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.2% in the first quarter. The dip was slighter than an initial estimate of negative 0.3% but still the first setback in three years. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the gross domestic product declined mostly because of a 43% increase in imports, which detract from economic growth. A 4.6% reduction in federal government spending also contributed to the contraction. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the GDP, grew at an annual pace of 1.2%, the lowest in two years.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims eased for the first time in five weeks. The measure of employer demand for workers suggested a tight hiring market, staying 36% below the all-time average, which dates back to 1967. Labor Department data showed 1.8 million Americans claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, unchanged from the week before and up 5.7% from the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 6.3% in April. The trade group’s index was down 5.5% from the year before and stood nearly 30% below what the association considers normal for the U.S. housing market. An economist for the association blamed mortgage rates: “Despite an increase in housing inventory, we are not seeing higher home sales.”
FridayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.2% in April, down from 0.7% in March. Increased expenditures on services such as housing, utilities and health care offset an overall decline for goods. The slower spending came as personal income rose 0.8% from March, which resulted in a higher personal saving rate – 4.9%, the highest in 11 months. The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 2.1% from April 2024, tying with September as the lowest since early 2021. The Fed’s long-range target for inflation is 2%.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index steadied in May after four months of steep declines. The index moved up slightly from a preliminary mid-month reading after the U.S. and China temporarily paused on tariff conflicts. The survey-based index showed consumers pausing an unprecedented escalation in their expectations that tariffs would raise prices. Consumers expected the inflation rate to reach 6.6% a year from now and 4.2% in the longer run. The university said consumers are “quite worried” about tariffs and relatively disinterested in the multi-year tax-and-spending bill before Congress.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19100, up 474 points or 1.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5912, up 109 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42270, up 667 points or 1.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.42%, down 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)
Week in Review (May 19-23, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 1% in April, following a 0.8% decline in March. The business research group said the index contracted by 2% since October, the same decrease as in the previous six months. More components turned negative in April. But despite “widespread weakness,” the index didn’t set off recession alarms, the Conference Board said. The group forecast 1.6% growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2025. That’s down from actual growth of 2.8% in 2024. The board said effects from increased tariffs would slow economic growth beginning in the third quarter. As recently as February, the group had forecast a 2.5% growth rate for 2025.
TuesdayNo major reports
WednesdayNo major reports
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the fourth week in a row to its highest level since October. An indication of employer reluctance to let workers go, the moving average still suggested a tight hiring market, down 36% from its all-time average, according to Labor Department data. Just below 1.8 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 3.8% from the week before but up 5% from the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 0.5% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million houses. Sales were 2% lower than the April 2024 pace and have remained at about 75% of normal activity for three years, despite a solid labor market, the trade group said. Inventory rose to the highest level in nearly five years, representing a 4.4-month supply, vs. the 6-month level typically needed for sustained sales rate. The median sales price rose 1.8% from April 2024 to $414,000, the 22nd consecutive price increase.
FridayThe annual sales rate of new houses rose in April to its highest level in more than three years. The Commerce Department said the sales pace was 743,000, up nearly 11% from March and 3% above the April 2024 pace. The latest sales also outpaced the level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The median price for a new house in April declined almost 2% from the year before to $407,200. The median time on market rose to 3 months, the longest in three years but below the 3.4-month mark just before COVID.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18737, down 474 points or 2.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5803, down 156 points or 2.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41603, down 1052 points or 2.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.51%, up 0.07 point
- Advisors on This Week’s Show
- Kyle Tetting
- Dave Sandstrom
- Kendall Bauer
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (May 12-16, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayBroad inflation slowed in April to its lowest point in more than four years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% from April 2024, still outpacing the Fed’s 2% target but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in mid-2022. Shelter costs c0ntributed more than half of the month’s increase while grocery prices fell the most since mid-2020. Egg prices dropped nearly 13% from March but were 49% more expensive than they were in April 2024. The 2.3% year-to-year inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Excluding volatile costs for food and energy, the core CPI rose 2.8% from the same time last year, the same pace as in March.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level registered a 2.4% annual increase in April, slowing for the third month in a row. The Producer Price Index was down 0.5% from March, the first decline in 16 months and the most since April 2020. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index shrank mostly because of lower prices for services, led by margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling. The core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, sank 0.1% for the month and was up 2.9% from April 2024.
Retail sales slowed in April, though consumers kept spending, according to a report by the Commerce Department. Advanced sales by retailers and food services rose 0.1% from March. Among 13 major categories, five increased sales from the month before, including bars and restaurants. Sales at supermarkets and liquor stores were unchanged. Car dealers and gas stations were among the outlets where sales declined. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell 0.2% in April. Economists follow store signs as an indication of consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row, rising to its highest level since October. The measure of employer willingness to let workers go was 36% below the 58-year average, suggesting a continued tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell 3% from the week before to just under 1.9 million applications, which was nearly 6% higher than the year before,
The Federal Reserve said its industrial production index was unchanged in April, though 1.5% above where it stood the year before. Lower output from manufacturing and mining was offset by increased production by utilities following an unseasonably warm March. Factories produced 0.4% less than March and were up 1.2% from April 2024. Industry’s capacity utilization rate fell marginally to 77.7%, staying below the 52-year average of 79.6%. Seen as an early indicator of inflation, the capacity rate has been safely under the long-range average since late 2022.
FridayHousing construction in April stayed in a relatively narrow band that has accompanied higher interest rates since mid-2022. A Commerce Department report on building permits and housing starts showed the indicators on par with levels in early 2007, just before the Great Recession. The number of houses under construction has been declining since late 2023 but remained near the housing boom peak of 2006. Economists have blamed a lack of inventory for years of escalating housing prices.
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment sank slightly from the end of April following four months of sharp declines. Since January, sentiment was down nearly 30%. More consumers spontaneously mentioned tariff uncertainty as reasons for angst for the economy and their personal finances. The university said opinions brightened marginally after some tariffs were suspended temporarily in April. It said its month-end report should show any effects from more recent pauses on trade policies with China.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19211, up 1283 points or 7.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5958, up 298 points or 5.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42655, up 1405 points or 3.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.44%, up 0.07 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (May 5-9, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe service sector of the U.S. economy continued to expand in April, though managers are reporting higher costs from tariffs, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its index for the service sector showed new orders and supplier deliveries growing at a slightly faster rate than in March. Employment declined for the second month in a row. The ISM’s survey of supply managers found that although business conditions overall were improving, tariff announcements resulted in higher prices, and federal budget cuts were hampering business. The group said the index implied 0.1% annual growth in the U.S. economy.
TuesdayOn the cusp of tariff wars, the U.S. trade deficit hit a record $140.5 billion in March, advancing 14% from February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed exports rising 0.2%, led by commercial aircraft and travel services. The value of imports, meantime, rose 4.4%, mostly because of pharmaceuticals, finished metals and automotive products. Through the first quarter, the trade gap widened 92% from the same time last year. Trade deficits detract from gross domestic product, the key measure of economic growth. The first quarter GDP, which contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%, was nearly 5 percentage points weaker because of the trade imbalance.
WednesdayThe Federal Reserve said consumer credit card debt rose by an annual rate of 1.7% in March. The pace of so-called revolving credit debt reversed a slight decline in February, following bigger slowdowns in November and December. Through the first quarter of 2025, revolving credit rose at a 2.3% annual rate. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, so economists keep an eye on credit card debt for signs of consumer demand and confidence. For March, total consumer debt outstanding, including loans for education and vehicles, rose at a 1.5% annual pace.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row and the third time in five weeks, according to new data from the Labor Department. The measure of employer willingness to let workers go was 37% below the 58-year average, suggesting continued tightness in the labor market. Total claims for jobless benefits declined less than 1% in the latest week to 1.9 million, which was nearly 4% above the level the year before.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity sank at an annual rate of 0.8% in the first quarter, the first setback in nearly three years. Output grew at an annual pace of 1.3% while hours worked rose 1%. Since the first quarter of 2024, productivity rose 1.4%. Labor costs increased 1.3% from the same time last year. Worker compensation, corrected for inflation, was unchanged. Since the end of 2019, productivity has grown at a 1.8% annual pace, vs.1.5% in the previous business cycle, which began in 2007. Since 1947, productivity has grown at 2.1% per year.
FridayNo major releases
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17929, down 49 points or 0.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5660, down 27 points or 0.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41249, down 68 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.38%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * John Sandstrom*
(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 28-May 2, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayHousing prices remained resilient to softening demand and affordability challenges, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose 3.9% in February from the year before, down from 4.1% in January. An analyst for the index said, “Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets.”
The Conference Board said its April report on consumer confidence reflected “pervasive pessimism about the future.” Expectations especially plunged, dipping to an index reading of 54.4, the lowest since 2011. The business research group said consumer expectations of job losses were the highest since the Great Recession; forecasts for stock declines were the most in 14 years. Economists monitor consumer confidence because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Employers posted 7.2 million job openings in March, down 3.8% from February, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s slightly above the level just before the COVID-19 pandemic but off from the peak of 12.1 million three years ago. Compared to the number of unemployed individuals looking for work, the gap between labor demand and supply reached its narrowest point in four years. The number and rate of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of employment confidence – rose for the third time in four months but stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 15th month in a row.
WednesdayThe U.S. economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.3% in the first quarter, the first setback for the gross domestic product in three years. A 41% increase in imports, spurred by anticipation of new tariffs, led the decline, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal government spending dropped 5% in the quarter, and consumer spending slowed to an annual rate of 1.8%, the lowest since mid-2023. The surge in imports contributed to a decrease of nearly 5 percentage points from the GDP, a record for measures going back to 1947.
Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, outpacing a 0.5% gain in personal income. Spending on motor vehicles shot up 57%, which analysts attributed to consumers trying to beat expected price increases from shifting trade policies. Meantime, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge showed prices rising 2.3% since March 2024, the fourth straight slowdown and the lowest rate in 13 months. The Fed’s long-term target for inflation is 2%.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 6.1% in March. The trade group’s index was down 0.6% from the year before and remained about 25% below its baseline set in 2001. An economist for the Realtors said continued job growth bolstered demand for housing but buyers remained sensitive to mortgage interest rates.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks. The measure suggested the labor market stayed historically tight: 38% below the all-time average, which dates to 1967. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 33% from the week before but up 3% from the year before.
The manufacturing sector continued contracting in April for the second month in a row and the 28th time in 30 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed further lapses in demand, output and hiring tied to uncertainty over U.S. trade policies.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined 0.5% in March while rising nearly 3% from March 2023. Residential expenditures, accounting for about 43% of all construction spending, slowed 0.5% from the seasonally adjusted annual rate in February and were about 3% ahead of the year-ago pace. Government outlays for construction – about 23% of the total rose – slipped 0.2% for the month and were up nearly 5% from March 2024.
FridayU.S. employers added 177,000 jobs in April, the 52nd consecutive gain. According to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the additional jobs exceeded the 152,000 12-month average. Transportation and warehousing more than doubled its annual pace of hiring. Federal government employment edged down 9,000 for April and was down 24,000 through the first four months of 2025. Temporary help positions – considered a harbinger of overall hiring trends – moved up slightly but stayed below their pre-pandemic level for the 16th month in a row. The average hourly wage rose 3.8% from the year before, continuing to outpace inflation. A separate survey of households showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. Unemployment has ranged narrowly between 4% and 4.2% since last May.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.4% in March, led by demand for commercial aircraft and automotive products. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, demand for manufactured goods rose 0.5%. Compared to March 2023, the dollar amount for total orders rose 0.3%, vs. a 0.7% gain excluding transportation. A proxy for business investments rose 0.6% from its year-earlier level.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17978, up 595 points or 3.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5687, up 161 points or 2.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41317, up 1204 points or 3.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.32%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 21-25, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined 0.7% in March, amid sinking consumer confidence, stock prices and factory orders. The business research group said six-month movement of its index contracted at a slower pace – 1.6%, compared to a 2.3% six-month decline in February. The March indicators, which preceded U.S. tariff announcements, did not signal a recession, the Conference Board said. But it further lowered its economic forecast, projecting a 1.6% rise in GDP in 2025, down from 2% last month and 2.5% in February. The conference board blamed trade wars, “which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending, and a weaker labor market.”
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayThe Commerce Department said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales rose 7.4% in March to 724,000 houses, the fastest pace since September. The rate was up 6% from the year before and on par with the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic, which was nearly the highest since just before the Great Recession. The median sales price dipped 7.5% from March 2024 to $403,600. Houses sold were on the market for a median 3.1 months, the longest in three years.
ThursdayContracts for commercial aircraft led a surge in manufacturing demand in March, with durable goods orders rising 9.2% from February, the third consecutive increase, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for automotive vehicles and parts also gained, but excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods demand was unchanged for the month. Since March 2024, all orders rose 5.5%; they were up 0.9% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, advanced 0.1% in March and were up 1% from March 2024.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row and the fourth time in five weeks. The average was 39% lower than the 58-year average, according to Labor Department data, reflecting employer reluctance to let workers go. In the latest week, just under 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.2% from the week before and up 5.3% from the same time last year.
The National Association of Realtors reported a nearly 6% drop in existing home sales in March, as the annual rate reached 4 million residences. That was 2% lower than the year before and follows full-year declines in 2023 and 2024, the weakest sales in three decades. The trade association cited “affordability challenges” related to mortgage rates as well as historically low mobility. The median sale price in March was a record high $403,700, up 2% from the year before and the 21st consecutive gain. Housing inventory grew in March but remained below traditional measures of a sustainable supply.
FridayThe University of Michigan reported continued severe decline in consumer sentiment in April, dropping for the fourth month in a row. Broad expectations plummeted 32% from January, the largest three-month fall since the recession of 1990. Uncertainty over trade policies raised consumer forecasts for inflation to 6.5% – the highest since 1981, when actual inflation reached 11%. Expectations included a “bleak” job outlook and “weaker” prospects for income growth in the coming year. Economists watch sentiment as a harbinger of consumer spending, which drives about 70% of the economy.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17383, up 1,096 points or 6.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5525, up 243 points or 4.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40114, up 971 points or 2.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.27%, down 0.07 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 14-18, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayIn a further sign of economic resilience, consumers continued spending at stores in March with retail sales advancing 1.4% from February. It was the sixth advance in seven months and the biggest one-month jump in more than two years. The Commerce Department reported that 11 of 13 major categories had sales increases in March, including a 5.3% gain for car dealers and a 1.8% rise for bars and restaurants. The only declines were at furniture stores and gas stations, where sales decreased in part because of lower prices. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 1.5%.
Unseasonably warm weather in March resulted in decreased output from utilities, which lowered overall industrial production for the month, the Federal Reserve reported. The dip in total output was the first in four months. Still, through the first quarter of 2025, industrial production rose at a 5.5% annual pace, compared with a 1.3% increase in output since March 2024. Manufacturing production rose in March for the fifth month in a row and was up 1% from the same time last year. The same report showed the capacity utilization rate, a measure of potential inflation pressure, shrank slightly from February and stayed below the long-time average, where it has been since mid-2023.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third time in four weeks, staying 39% below the long-term average. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go continued to indicate a tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell to just above 2 million in the latest week, down 3% from the week before, though up 3% from the same time in 2024.
The U.S. housing market continued to weaken in March as housing starts stayed below the pre-pandemic pace. Figures from the Commerce Department showed new construction 11% below its pace in February, though it was on par with levels in mid-2007, prior to the Great Recession. The pace of housing permits, an indicator of commitments to future homebuilding, edged up in March and also hovered near the activity just before the pandemic and 2007. Other data showed that the rate of houses under construction stayed historically high, though it continued to recede from its 2022 peak.
FridayMarkets closed in observation of Good Friday
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 16286, down 438 points or 2.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5283, down 81 points or 1.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39142, down 1,070 points or 2.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.33%, down 0.16 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show* Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Adam Baley
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (April 7-11, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayIn a sign that consumers’ appetite for credit card debt is fading, the Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit debt outstanding rose at an annual rate of 0.1% in February. That was down from a pace of 6% in January, which followed back-to-back declines in November and December. The same report showed total consumer debt receded at an annual pace of 0.2% in February with falling amounts of non-revolving credit, which includes student loans and vehicle financing.
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayOverall inflation sank to its lowest level in four years in March. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, fell 0.1% from February, thanks in part to a 6% drop in the price of gasoline. Compared to the year before, the CPI was up 2.4%, the lowest gain since February 2021. It was as high as 9.1% in June 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the cost for eggs continued rising, up nearly 6% from February and more than 60% above year-ago prices. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, was up 2.8%, the smallest increase since March 2021.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims stayed the same in the week ended April 5, remaining 39% below the long-term average since 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go was 8% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Labor Department. Altogether, just under 2.1 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, up 0.7% from the week before but up 6% from the same time last year.
FridayInflation on the wholesale level sank for the first time in 15 months in March with the Producer Price Index falling 0.4%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said lower gasoline prices accounted for two-thirds of the decline. The wholesale cost of eggs dropped 21% from February. The index gained 2.7% from March 2024. The rate had been as high as 11.7% in mid-2022, vs. 1.1% at the onset of the pandemic. The core Producer Price Index – excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services – rose slightly from February and was up 3.4% from the year before.
Consumer sentiment flashed warnings of recession, as Americans continued to lose faith in the economy. The University of Michigan index fell for the fourth month in a row, dropping more than 30% from where it was in December. Researchers said the preliminary April index was based on surveys before the April 2 U.S. tariff announcements. They noted that declines in sentiment were “pervasive and unanimous” across partisan and demographic groups. Among the findings were the greatest expectation of increased unemployment since 2009 and the highest expectation of inflation since 1981.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 16724, up 1,137 points or 7.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5363, up 289 points or 5.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40213, up 1,898 points or 5.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.50%, up 0.52 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)
Week in Review (March 31-April 4, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayU.S. factories contracted in March amid “confusion” from volatile tariff policies, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index sank following its first two months of expansion in more than two years. “Demand and production retreated and destaffing continued, as panelists’ companies responded to demand confusion,” said the report, which is based on supply manager surveys. The ISM said 46% of the nation’s manufacturing gross domestic product contracted in March, compared to 24% in February.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose by 0.7% in February, the fourth gain in five months. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of spending neared $2.2 trillion, a record, not adjusting for inflation. Residential construction spending, which makes up about 43% of the total, rose 1.3% from January despite a drop in multi-family housing. Public spending, which accounts for 23% of the total, rose 0.2%.
Employers posted fewer job openings in February, although demand for workers continued to outpace supply. Postings were just under 7.6 million, down from a record 12.2 million openings nearly three years ago, and still above the 7 million level just before the COVID pandemic. Both the number and rate of workers quitting their jobs – a measure of worker confidence- stayed below the pre-pandemic level, where they have been since the end of 2023.
WednesdayThe Commerce Department reported a 0.6% gain in manufacturing orders in February, the second consecutive advance. Demand for motor vehicles and parts led the increase. Excluding the volatile transportation category, factory orders rose 0.4% from January. Compared to February 2024, total orders were up 1.5% and up 0.5% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, fell 0.2% for the month and were up 0.6% from the year before.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade deficit fell 6% in February from its record in January. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the gap narrowed to $122.8 billion as the value of exports rose by 2.9%, and imports stayed level. Since February 2024, the deficit widened by 86% with exports growing 4.6% and imports rising more than 21%. The trade deficit detracts from economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product.
The Labor Department reported that the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row. Average claims remained 39% below the 58-year average, continuing to reflect employer reluctance to let workers go. Total claims were down a little from the week before at 2.1 million, which was 3% higher than at the same time a year ago.
The U.S. services sector weakened in March, growing at its slowest rate in nine straight months of overall expansion. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index suggested the overall economy continued to expand, although not as fast. The trade group’s survey of supply managers found respondents about evenly split between optimism and pessimism for the coming months. Pessimists cited expected repercussions from trade wars.
FridayU.S. employers continued to add jobs in March – for the 51st month in a row and at a swifter pace. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 228,000 more jobs than February, up from the 12-month average of 158,000. The annual average wage gain fell to 3.8% but continued to outpace overall inflation. The number of temporary help workers stayed below the pre-pandemic level. Federal government employment declined for the second month in a row and stayed around 2% of the total work force, as it has been since 1995. Additional job seekers raised the unemployment rate to 4.2%, keeping within the 10-month range of 4% to 4.2%.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 15588, down 1,735 points or 10.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5074, down 507 points or 9.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 38315, down 3,269 points or 7.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.16%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
In a special episode of the Money Talk Podcast, advisors from Landaas & Company LLC, offer perspectives and insights on investing fundamentals, especially following a recent 10% correction in stocks
Learn more
- Seeking balance amid volatility, by Kyle Tetting
- Cautious optimism: A Balancing act, by Kyle Tetting
- Volatility: Stock market vs. your portfolio, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- Why investments outperform their investors, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- Stocks: Long-term, consistent returns, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
- Retirement 101: Having a plan, a Money Talk Video with Tom Pappenfus
- Correlation: How investment balance can shift, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- State of the balanced investor, a Money Talk Video with Adam Baley
- When Should I …rebalance my portfolio? from Art Rothschild
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 17-21, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayFollowing a deeper decline in January, retail sales gained a mere 0.2% in February, the Commerce Department reported. Of 13 retail categories, only five improved sales for the month, led by online vendors. Decliners included gas stations, which were affected by lower prices, and bars and restaurants, where sales fell for the first time in 11 months. Car dealers experienced lower sales in February after weather-related setbacks in January. Retail sales represent most of the nation’s consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
TuesdayThe pace of housing starts rose 11% in February, though it was 3% behind the year before, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported jointly. Permits for new housing declined slightly at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Amid longstanding low inventories, the rate at which new houses are being completed is finally reaching levels not seen since before the Great Recession. Also, housing under construction kept declining but remained among the highest levels since 1970.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in February, the third gain in a row, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing led the way with a 0.9% increase from January. Auto manufacturing production rose 8.5%, but even without auto makers, industrial output rose 0.4%. Compared to the year before, total output from all industries was up 1.4%. The capacity utilization rate, considered a leading indicator of inflation, increased in February for the third month in a row but stayed below its 52-year average.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth straight week to its highest level since November. But the Labor Department indicator stayed 37% below the 58-year average, suggesting continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. Total jobless claims dropped 3.7% from the week before to just under 2.2 million, which was 3.6% ahead of the same time in 2024.
The annual rate of existing home sales rose 4.2% to nearly 4.3 million in February, the National Association of Realtors reported. The pace picked up for the fifth month in a row while ending 2024 at the lowest level in 30 years. February’s pace was more than 1% below where it was the year before. The median sales price was $398,400, up almost 4% from the year before, the 20th increase in a row. The trade association said home values collectively rose $1.3 trillion in the last year.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3% in February, led by drops in consumer expectations and factory orders. The business research group said its index declined 1% in the six months since August, an improvement from a 2.1% fall in the previous six months. The group cited increased uncertainty over federal government policies in downgrading its economic forecast. It projected growth of 2% in the U.S. gross domestic product in 2025, below its 2.5% prediction in February.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17784, up 30 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5668, up 29 points or 0.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41985, up 497 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.25%, down 0.06 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 10-14, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayU.S. employers posted 7.7 million job openings in January, up marginally from December but down nearly 9% from the year before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply, but the gap narrowed. Openings had eclipsed 12 million in March 2022 and have trended lower ever since. They were barely 7 million just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures of hiring and dismissals showed little change, but voluntary quitting – an indication of worker confidence – was below pre-pandemic levels for the 13th month in a row.
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation declined slightly in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% from February 2024, unadjusted for inflation. That was the lowest rate since November, down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022, though still higher than the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%. Shelter costs accounted for nearly half of the monthly rise in inflation, offset by declines in air fares and gasoline. The price of eggs gained 10% from January and was up 59% from February 2024. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.1% from the year before. Shelter costs rose 4.2% from the year before, the smallest 12-month increase in more than three years. Absent shelter prices, inflation in February rose 2% from the year before.
ThursdayWholesale inflation was unchanged in February, as higher prices for goods, led by food, offset lower prices for services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index stayed even after rising 0.6% in January. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from January. Year to year, the headline PPI rose 3.2% in February, down from 3.5% in January, the first deceleration in five months. The core PPI was up 3.3%, the lowest rate since April.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row, reaching the highest level since December. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. The four-week number was 38% below the 58-year average. Some 2.2 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 3% from the week before and up nearly 6% from the year before.
FridayThe University of Michigan said consumer sentiment fell another 10.5% since February, the third consecutive decline, a setback of 22% since December. The preliminary March measure of consumers’ moods showed heightened gloom “consistently across groups” with survey respondents citing uncertainty amid “frequent gyrations in economic policies.” Consumers surveyed said they expected inflation to reach 4.9% in a year, the highest forecast since November 2022. The one-month jump in longer term expectations for inflation was the biggest since 1993. Economists watch sentiment as an indicator of consumers’ appetite for spending, which drives about 70% of the U.S. economy.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17754, down 442 points or 2.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5639, down 131 points or 2.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41488, down 1314 points or 3.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.31%, up 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (March 3-7, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayA two-month expansion of the manufacturing sector slowed in February amid uncertainty over the consequences of federal trade policies. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey-based manufacturing index signaled the second consecutive month of growth after 26 months of contraction. “Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued,” reported the trade group, which said the index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 2.2%.
Extraordinary weather might have influenced a slight decline in construction spending in January. The Commerce Department said the average annual rate of such spending dropped 0.2% from December to nearly $2.2 trillion. Spending was 3.3% ahead of the year-ago pace. Residential construction, which made up more than 40% of the total spending, fell 0.5% from December because of a drop in multi-family housing expenses. Spending on housing rose more than 3% from January 2024, though it fell 12% for multi-family.
TuesdayNo significant reports
WednesdayA lift in commercial aircraft demand sent U.S. factory orders higher in January for the first time in three months. The Commerce Department said orders overall rose 1.7% from December and were 13.5% ahead of their level the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand rose 0.2% for the month and was up 2.3% from January 2024. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% for the month and were up 2.2% from the year before.
The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the eighth month in a row and at a slightly faster pace. The Institute for Supply Management said the four most impactful index components rose together for the third month in a row, the longest streak in nearly three years. The ISM’s survey of supply managers reported anxiety over tariffs and federal spending reductions.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 1.5%, in the fourth quarter of 2024, revised from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 2.4% in the last four months of the year while hours worked increased at a 0.8% pace. Productivity advanced 2% over the last four quarters. Average annual productivity was up 1.9% since the end of 2019, compared to 1.5% in the previous business cycle, dating back to 2007. The average annual productivity gain since 1947 has been 2.1%.
The U.S. trade deficit widened 34% in January to a record $131.4 billion. Exports grew by 1.2%, led by commercial aircraft, and imports rose 10%, led by industrial supplies, pharmaceuticals, computers and cellphones. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that compared to January 2024, the trade gap expanded by 96%, with exports rising 4% and imports up 23%. Economists consider trade deficits a detraction from overall economic growth.
The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dropped for the third week in a row. It remained 42% below its average since 1967 and was 2% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total claims for the latest week declined marginally from the week before to 2.1 million. That was 10.5% higher the year before.
FridayEmployers added 151,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, showed the pace of hiring rise below the 12-month average, but its 50th straight month of growth was the second-longest streak in data back to 1939. The average hourly wage rose 4% from February 2024, outpacing broad inflation since last May. The report included a couple of signs of labor market strain:
- Temporary help employment, considered a harbinger of hiring trends, fell to 20% below its 2022 peak.
- The average workweek remained at the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic, which was the lowest since just after the Great Recession.
- The U-6 measure of underemployment reached 8%, the highest since October 2021 and above the pre-pandemic level for the 16th month in a row.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18196, down 651 points or 3.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5770, down 184 points or 3.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42802, down 1039 points or 2.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.32%, up 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 24-28, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major reports
TuesdayHousing prices continued to accelerate in December, reaching a record high for the 19th month in a row, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the index rose 3.9%, compared to a 3.7% increase in November. And though housing kept outpacing overall inflation, S&P described the growth as “below trend.” The average annual increase in home prices since 2020 was 8.8% with a peak of 18.9% in 2021.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped more in February than it has since mid-2021. And, for the first time since June, expectations dipped below a level that historically signals imminent recession. The business research group characterized the slip in confidence as broadly based across age groups and income levels. A key measure showed optimism in employment at a 10-month low.
WednesdaySales of newly constructed houses slipped in January, as the annual pace dropped 10.5% from December to 657,000 houses. New home sales were down 1% from the year before, as the rate dipped below the pre-pandemic level for the third time in five months. The median sales price rose 4% from Jan. 2024 to $446,300. The inventory of unsold new houses exceeded nine months’ supply for the second time in more than two years, compared to less than six months’ just before the pandemic.
ThursdayThe U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annual pace in the fourth quarter, virtually unchanged from an initial estimate, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expansion of the gross domestic product was down from 3.1% in the third quarter. The government said the updated figures included slightly slower consumer spending, which drives about 70% of economic activity. Higher-than-estimated government spending and exports helped offset the consumer slowdown.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks, reaching the highest level in two months. The measure continued to suggest a historically high reluctance to let workers go, staying 38% below the 58-year average. The Labor Department reported that total jobless claims grew minimally in the latest week to 2.2 million, up nearly 5% from the year before.
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 3.1% in January, the first increase in three months. A surge in commercial aircraft orders accounted for the bulk of the January gain. Excluding the transportation industry, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was unchanged from December and was up 1.7% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% from December and were 2.2% ahead of January 2024.
Commitments to home ownership slipped in January to the lowest level in 24 years of data, according to the pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said if extraordinary winter weather was to blame for the record lack of activity, expect a rebound in coming months. Otherwise, the group cited lack of affordability, with high prices and conventional mortgage rates hovering around 7%.
FridayThe Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation dipped for the first time in four months to 2.5%, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index reached as low as 2.1% in September following a four-decade high of 7.1% in June 2022. The rate has remained above the Fed’s long-range target of 2% since early 2021. The report also showed consumer spending declining 0.2% in January even as personal income accelerated 0.9%. As a result, the personal saving rate rose to its highest point in seven months.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18847, down 677 points or 3.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5954, down 59 points or 1.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43841, up 413 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.23%, down 0.19 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Dave Sandstrom * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 17-21, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets closed for Presidents Day
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayHome construction registered a setback in January, as the Commerce Department reported the annual rate of housing starts dropped nearly 10% from December. Extraordinary weather in January likely had some effect on the volatile indicator, which jumped 16% in December. Housing starts remained below their pace just before the COVID-19 pandemic, when new construction had reached the highest point since the Great Recession. The pace of housing permits, which presage future construction, rose slightly in January. The number of houses under construction declined for the 14th month in a row but was still as high as it was in mid-2006.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the second week in a row and the third time in four weeks, remaining 41% below the 58-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Some 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down nearly 3% from the week before and up 2% from the same time in 2024.
The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in its index of leading economic indicators in January, led by a drop in consumer confidence and a fall in factory hours. The business research group said the yield spread made a positive contribution to the index for the first time since November 2022. Over the past six months, the index declined 0.9%, an improvement from the 1.7% fall in the previous six months. Based on its research, the Conference Board forecast 2.5% growth in U.S. gross domestic product for 2025, with the second half of the year slower than the first.
FridayThe University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index sank nearly 10% in February and was almost 16% lower than the year before over broad fears that U.S. tariff policies will trigger higher inflation. Survey respondents reported a 19% decline in conditions for buying durable goods, and expectations for inflation rose the fastest since mid-2021. Economists see consumer sentiment as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product.
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales dropped 4.9% in January after reaching a 30-year low in 2024. The annual rate of unit sales was up 2% from the year-ago pace, the fourth straight increase. And although inventory levels improved from December, the imbalance between supply and demand resulted in the 19th consecutive increase in the median sales price. Citing prices and interest rates, the trade association said there’s an affordability challenge for prospective homebuyers.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19524, down 503 points or 2.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6013, down 101 points or 1.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43428, down 1118 points or 2.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.42%, down 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Steve Giles * Kendall Bauer*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 10-14, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayHousing and eggs continued to push inflation in January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% from December, with 30% of the increase attributed to shelter costs. Food prices gained 0.4%, over two-thirds of it coming from a 15% advance in egg prices. Compared to January 2023, the broadest measure of inflation rose 3%, the fourth consecutive increase and the highest rate since May. Inflation stayed above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% and was down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. Shelter costs were up 4.4% from the year before, the lowest increase in three years.
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level rose slightly in January, supporting the Fed’s pause on interest rate cuts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index increased 0.4% from December, with goods costs rising faster than services. Compared to the year before, the wholesale inflation rate remained at 3.5%, down from a peak of 11.6% in March 2022. Amid Fed increases in interest rates, the rate got as low as 0.3% in mid-2023. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 3.4% from January 2024, slowing for the second month in a row.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second time in three weeks. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average stayed 41% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims rose nearly 4% from the week before, reaching 2.3 million, which was up more than 5% from the same time in 2024.
FridayHarsh weather and a fall-off from holiday shopping helped lower retail sales in January. The value of goods and services sold dropped 0.9% from December, the first decline in five months and the biggest in nearly two years. Nine of 13 retail categories posted lower sales, the Commerce Department reported, including car dealers and online retailers. Sales at gas stations rose because of higher prices. Bars and restaurants also improved. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined by 1.3% in January, the most since February 2023.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose in January for the second month in a row after three months of decline. Increased aircraft production led the way, following resumed work after a strike settlement at Boeing. Utilities increased production by 7.8% because of extraordinarily cold weather. Output for the automotive industry fell by more than 5%. Industries’ capacity utilization rate rose slightly in January but stayed below the 52-year average for the 21st month in a row. High capacity rates can indicate potential pressure for inflation.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 20027, up 503 points or 2.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6115, up 89 points or 1.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44546, up 243 points or 0.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.47%, down 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Feb. 3-7, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in more than two years, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of manufacturing supply managers, showed growth after 26 months of contraction. New orders rose for the third month in a row, at an accelerating pace, a sign that demand is reviving. Reports of staffing reductions slowed while components tied to production and supplies strengthened. The ISM said the index suggested the U.S. economy is growing at an annual pace of 2.4%.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose in December for the third month in a row. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of such expenditures increased 0.5% from November and more than 4% from the year before, led by housing, which accounted for 43% of all construction spending. Manufacturing, which represented nearly 12% of the $2.2 trillion spent on construction remained steady from November but was up more than 11% from the end of 2023.
TuesdayEmployers’ demand for workers eased in December, with job openings falling for the first time in three months, narrowing the gap between supply and demand for workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings dropped to 7.6 million, the second-lowest level in nearly four years. That’s down from a peak of 12 million in 2022 yet still above the 7 million registered just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – remained below the pre-pandemic level for the 13th month in a row. Still, employers were reluctant to let workers go, as job separations stayed below pre-pandemic levels for the 18th month in a row.
A drop in demand for commercial aircraft and parts sank factory orders in December. The Commerce Department reported that total orders declined 0.9%, the fourth setback in five months. Demand for manufactured goods was unchanged from the end of 2023. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.3% for the month and were up 1.5% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.4% from November and were up 0.6% from December 2023.
WednesdayThe largest segment of the U.S. economy showed continued expansion in January but at a slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management’s service index indicated growth for the seventh months in a row and the 23rd time in 25 months. Slower growth in two key components – business activity and new orders – lowered the index from its December reading. The trade group said supply managers reported challenges from bad weather in December and repeated concerns about tariffs.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded in 2024, as the value of imports outpaced exports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the 2024 trade gap was $918.4 billion, up 17% from the year before. Exports grew 3.9% in the year while imports rose 6.6%. Trade gaps detract from economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. The deficit was 3.1% the size of GDP, up from 2.8% in 2023. In December, the gap widened nearly 25% from November as exports declined and imports increased.
ThursdayWorker productivity increased at a 1.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 2.3% in the third quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The latest gain came on 2.3% higher output from workers putting in 1% more hours. Year to year, productivity rose 1.6%. Unit labor costs rose 2.7% over the last four quarters, with compensation increasing 1.5%, adjusted for inflation. In the current business cycle, which began at the end of 2019, productivity has been growing at a 1.8% annual pace, compared to 1.5% during the previous cycle, which started in 2007. The average productivity rate since 1947 is 2.1%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second time in three weeks but remained low historically. Data from the Labor Department showed the latest four-week average was 40% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have suggested employers’ reluctance to let workers go in a tight labor market. Total claims fell 3.3% from the week before to 2.2 million, which was 0.7% lower than the year before.
FridayU.S. employers added 143,000 jobs in January, suggesting a slower growth in the labor market, according to the employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The additions were down from the 166,000 average during 2024 and marked the 49th consecutive month of job gains. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, the lowest since May, after months of ranging between 4.1% and 4.2%. The U-6 underemployment rate remained above the pre-pandemic level for the 14th month in a row. Employment in temporary help services – often a harbinger of job conditions – stayed below the pre-pandemic mark for the 20th month in a row.
The University of Michigan said a preliminary measure of its consumer sentiment index dropped for the second month in a row, driven by concerns about possible effects from U.S. tariff policies. Expectations for inflation showed an unusually high increase, the university said. Declines in sentiment were “pervasive” across consumer demographics.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19523, down 104 points or 0.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6026, down 15 points or 0.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44303, down 241 points or 0.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.49%, down 0.08 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 27-31)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Commerce Department reported a 4% gain in the annual rate of new home sales in December. Sales were up almost 7% from the year before and just below where they were heading into the COVID-19 pandemic. For perspective, the pace of sales – 698,000 a year – was half the peak rate in mid-2005 and represented about one-seventh of all home sales. The median sales price rose 2% from the year before to $427,000.
TuesdayThe Commerce Department said durable goods orders declined again in December, the fourth setback in five months, led by commercial aircraft. Compared to the year before, long-lasting factory orders were down 1.5% after shrinking 2.2% for the month. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.3% and were up 1.4% from the end of 2023. A proxy for business investment gained 0.5% from November and was up 0.6% from December 2023.
Housing prices increased again in November, rising 3.8% from the year before, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. The gain compared to a 3.6% year-to-year advance in October, marking the first acceleration in nine months. Since 1988, the average 12-month increase had been 2.7%, although it averaged 5.2% since 2000. Housing costs continued to outpace overall inflation, which reached 2.9% in December, based on the Consumer Price Index.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in December for the second month in a row, keeping toward the lower end of a sideways range that began in 2022. The business research group said its gauge sank broadly from November, led by a drop in attitudes toward labor conditions. Consumer responses avoided a measure historically tied to impending recession. Economists follow consumer confidence because consumer spending drives 70% of U.S. economic activity.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 3.1% in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deceleration in gross domestic product was led largely by a drop in business investments. Consumer spending rose at a 4.2% annual rate, the fastest since the first quarter of 2023. Government spending and a decrease in imports also boosted fourth-quarter growth. Also slowing: Inventories, federal spending and residential spending. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 and adjusting for inflation, GDP rose 2.5% in 2024, down from 3.8% the year before.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth time in five weeks. The average was 41% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down more than 1% from the week before but 9% higher than the same time in 2023.
An early indicator of home sales declined in December after four months of gains. The National Association of Realtors’ index of pending home sales dropped 5.5% from November and was down 5% from December 2023. The trade group said more home buyers are using cash, partly offsetting the deterrent of relatively high mortgage rates. At 74.2, the index of pending sales was more than 25% below what the association considers normal sales volume at the current population level.
FridayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending jumped 0.7% in December, the most since March and outpacing a 0.4% increase in personal income. Consumer spending is the driving force in gross domestic product, so the gain was another sign of economic resilience. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Federal Reserve Board follows for inflation, rose 2.6% from December 2023, accelerating for the third month in a row. The inflation rate remained above the Fed’s 2% long-term target but was below a four-decade high exceeding 7% in June 2022.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19627, down 327 points or 1.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6041, down 61 points or 1.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44544, up 120 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.57%, down 0.06 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 20-24, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets and government offices closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayThe Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined slightly in December but continued to improve from previous declines. The business research group said its gauge fell 0.1% from November, following an upwardly revised 0.4% gain from October. Over the last half of 2024, the index fell 1.3%, advancing from a 1.7% decline in the first six months of the year. Of 10 leading indicators, five were positive, the organization said, but they were offset by weaker factory orders, consumer confidence and building permits and an uptick in unemployment insurance claims. The Conference Board said its index suggested fewer head winds to economic growth. The group forecast a 2.3% rise in gross domestic product in 2025, up from its December forecast of 2%.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in four weeks. The average was 41% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. It was 2% above the level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Labor Department said 2.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 4% from the week before and 7% higher than the same time in 2024.
FridayThe pace of existing home sales gained 2.2% in December, the fastest in 10 months. Still, 2024 sales ended below 4.1 million residences, the least since 1995. At the same time, in part because of low inventories, the median sales price hit a record high of $407,500. The median price in December rose 6% from the year before, the 18th consecutive increase, with million-dollar home sales up 35% while those priced under $250,000 declined. The National Association of Realtors expressed optimism in its outlook, citing steady gains in jobs and wages and signs of reviving inventories.
The University of Michigan said its January measure of consumer sentiment declined for the first time in six months, with broadly lower expectations amid widespread belief that inflation will rise. The index fell 3.9% from December and 10% from January 2024. The only component that improved was consumers’ outlook toward personal finances. Expectations for increased unemployment rose to the highest level since the pandemic. The university reported a six-month high in plans for buying durable goods, as consumers wanted to beat anticipated price increases.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19954, up 324 points or 1.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6101, up 105 points or 1.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44424, up 936 points or 2.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.63%, up 0.02 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Steve Giles * Dave Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 13-17, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wholesale inflation rose 0.2% in December, as prices on goods increased while services were unchanged. The Producer Price Index advanced 3.3% from the year before, the highest since early 2023 but down from the record 11.7% reached in March 2022. Increased interest rates by the Federal Reserve have since lowered inflation, but the December reading, led by a 9.7% jump in gas prices, kept the rate above the Fed’s long-range target of 2% overall. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI rose 0.1% from November and was up 3.3% from December 2023.
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation rose again in December, though it stayed closer to the Federal Reserve Board target than the peak two and a half years ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index, rose 0.4% from November, the most in nine months, fueled by a 4.4% jump in gas prices. The CPI advanced 2.9% from December 2023. That’s up from a recent low of 2.4% in September but less than a third of the 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. The Federal Reserve’s long-range inflation target is 2%. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy items, the core CPI rose by 0.2%, down from three months in a row at 0.3%. Year to year, the core measure was up 3.2%, tied with July and August for the lowest rate since early 2021.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since April, dropping 41% below the all-time average. An indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go, the moving average was 2% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, total claims for jobless benefits rose 17% from the week before to 2.2 million, affected in part by year-end layoffs. That was up 4% from the year before.
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.4% in December for the fifth increase in six months, though the weakest gain since a setback in August. The advance overall suggested continued resilience in the economy, with 10 of 13 retail categories expanding, led by car dealers and furniture stores. Sales at bars and restaurants fell for the first time since March. Compared to the end of 2023, total retail sales rose nearly 4%, with 11 of 13 categories gaining. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales were up 1% since December 2023.
FridayThe pace of U.S. housing starts rose while building permits slowed in December. The Commerce Department reported the annual rate of new construction climbed nearly 16% to its highest level in 10 months, still below the pre-pandemic pace but on par with early 2007. Meanwhile, the annual pace of permits fell, but authorizations for single-family construction increased for the fourth time in five months, rising above the pre-pandemic rate for the first time since February. The pace of single-family houses under construction slowed for the 13th month in a row but remained at levels unreached in 50 years.
Industrial production rose in December for the second month in a row and eked out a 0.5% gain from the year before. The Federal Reserve Board cited a boost in output from aircraft manufacturers, following the resolution of a strike at Boeing. Production from factories, mines and utilities all rose from November. Only manufacturing failed to advance from December 2023, having ended the year unchanged. Industries’ capacity utilization rate – an indicator of inflation – also gained for the second consecutive month, though it stayed below its 50-year average for the 22nd month in a row, suggesting higher prices weren’t imminent.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19630, up 469 points or 2.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5997, up 170 points or 2.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43488, up 1549 points or 3.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.61%, down 0.17 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Jan. 6-10, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayA report from the Commerce Department showed manufacturing orders sinking in November for the third time in four months. The value of orders retreated 0.4% from October and was 0.1% ahead of November 2023. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment – most notably commercial aircraft, orders rose 0.2% for the month and gained 1.3% from November 2023. A proxy for business investments was up 0.4% from October and 0.4% from the year before.
TuesdayThe U.S. trade deficit widened by 6.2% in November to $78.2 billion, a result of imports outpacing exports. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports rose by 2.7% from October, led by sales of industrial supplies and automotive products. Imports gained 3.4%, led by increased U.S. purchases from abroad of semiconductors and automotive products. Through the first 11 months of 2024, the deficit – which detracts from gross domestic product – widened 13%; exports gained 4%, and imports rose 3.4%.
U.S. employers posted 8.1 million job openings in November, the most since May. Openings reached a record high of 12.2 million in March 2022 and remained above the pre-pandemic level of about 7 million. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the number of hires continued to barely outpace separations in November. The proportion of workers quitting their jobs – an indicator of worker confidence – stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 13th month in a row. Job openings remained greater than the number of unemployed job seekers, showing a continued gap between the demand and supply of workers.
The U.S. services sector grew again in December, gaining for the sixth month in a row, and at a faster pace, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed new orders and supplier deliveries accelerating while hiring slowed from November. Supply managers told the ISM they’re generally confident about business conditions but have concerns about U.S. plans to increase tariffs.
WednesdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in row to its lowest level since late April, 41% below the all-time average and 2% above where it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Data from the Labor Department showed just under 1.9 million Americans were claiming unemployment benefits in the latest week. That was down 4% from the week before and down 3% from the same time last year.
In a possible sign of wavering consumer conviction, credit card debt sank in November at the fastest pace since the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Board reported that revolving consumer debt outstanding declined at an annual pace of 12%. The decrease amounted to $13.8 billion. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. Credit card debt partly reflects the confidence of consumers to keep spending.
ThursdayStock market and government offices closed for President Carter funeral
FridayU.S. employers added 256,000 jobs in December, higher than the monthly average for 2024 (186,000) but below 2023 (251,000). Other data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report suggests a continued strong employment market with signs of cooling. Temporary help jobs – considered a harbinger of overall hiring trends – dropped to the lowest number in more than four years and remained below the pre-pandemic level for the 17th month in a row. The average hourly wage rose 3.9% from December 2023, suggesting low pressure on inflation. The same report showed the unemployment rate at 4.1%, the seventh month in a row it has been either 4.1% or 4.2%. The labor force participation rate, indicating the portion of potential workers either employed or looking for a job, also remained within a narrow range.
The University of Michigan said its preliminary January measure of consumer sentiment showed a surge in uncertainty about inflation at the same time survey respondents felt better about current financial conditions. The index overall fell marginally from November and was down more than 7% from January 2024. In its report, the university said, “January’s divergence in views of the present and the future reflects easing concerns over the current cost of living this month, but surging worries over the future path of inflation.”
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19162, down 460 points or 2.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5827, down 115 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41938, down 794 points or 1.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.78%, up 0.18 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus*
(with Max Hoelzl,Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 30, 2024-Jan. 3, 2025)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe National Association of Realtors reported increased demand for housing in November for the fourth month in a row. The trade group reported its pending home sales index rose 2.2% in November and was up nearly 7% from the year before. It was the highest reading since February 2023, though still 21% below the index benchmark set in 2001. The Realtors said homebuyer demand should continue growing as housing shifts from a sellers’ market. The group said homebuyers are lowering expectations for reductions in mortgage rates. Despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, conventional mortgage rates have stayed around 6% for the last two years.
TuesdayHousing inflation continued to ease in October, though it still outpaced overall inflation. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index rose 3.6% from its year-earlier measure. October marked the seventh consecutive deceleration in price increases and the lowest gain in 13 months. Seasonally adjusted, the index hit its 17th all-time high, though a representative for the measure noted that the pace of increases was “well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade.”
WednesdayMarkets and government offices closed for New Year’s
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in five weeks, suggesting ongoing strength in the labor market. The indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go was 39% below its 57-year average, according to Labor Department data. Total claims – including ongoing cases – numbered nearly 2 million in the latest week, up 4.3% from the previous week and up 6% from where it stood at the same time in 2024.
U.S. construction spending was unchanged in November. Data from the Commerce Department showed the seasonally adjusted annual rate of construction expenditures leveling off since reaching a record high of nearly $2.2 trillion in May. Construction spending was 3% ahead of its pace in November 2023. Spending on residential construction – accounting for 43% of the total – also increased 3% from the year-ago pace.
FridayThe Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled contraction in December for the ninth month in a row and the 25th time in 26 months. Based on surveys of supply managers, the index showed the industry slumping slightly less than in November. With expansion in key components such as new orders and production, the index was the closest to registering overall growth since March. The trade group said its index suggested the overall economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.9%.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19622, down 100 points or 0.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5942, down 28 points or 0.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42732, down 260 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.59%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 23-27, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayIn a sign of weak manufacturing demand, durable goods orders fell in November for the third time in four months. The Department of Commerce said orders declined 1.1% from October and were down 1.3% from the year before. Demand for commercial aircraft led the monthly drop. Excluding transportation equipment, orders dipped only 0.1% from October.
New home sales picked up in November. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 residences, sales stayed below the pre-pandemic level of about 700,000 which was near the highest since before the Great Recession. According to new data from the Department of Commerce, inventories remained above average, and the median sales price dropped 6% from November 2023 to $402,600.
Consumers soured on the economy and financial prospects in December, according to the Conference Board. The business research group said its consumer confidence index dropped to the middle of a narrow range of readings over the last two years. In particular, consumers said they expected lower stock prices and higher interest rates, and they had weaker outlooks on their family finances. Economists monitor consumer opinions because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
TuesdayNo significant reports
WednesdayMarkets and government offices closed for Christmas
ThursdayThe four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row but remained 38% below the all-time level, suggesting employers continued to be cautious about letting workers go. The total number of jobless recipients fell about 3% from the week before to nearly 1.9 million, which was up 1.5% from the same time last year.
FridayNo significant reports
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19772, up 149 points or 0.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5971, up 40 points or 0.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42992, up 153 points or 0.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.62%, up 0.10 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Art Rothschild * Adam Baley*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 16-20, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Commerce Department reported a 0.7% increase in retail sales in November, exceeding analyst forecasts and suggesting continued economic momentum. The rise was broadly distributed: Eight of 13 major categories had higher sales in November, led by car dealers, online retailers and home-and-garden centers, which were boosted by rebuilding following hurricanes Helene and Milton. Consumer spending declined at grocery stores as well as at bars and restaurants, where sales dipped for the first time since March. About two-thirds of U.S. economic activity is driven by consumer spending.
U.S. industrial output fell 0.1% in November, its third drop in a row and the fourth in five months. Production declines in the mining industry and among utilities dampened the November numbers. The Federal Reserve reported manufacturing output rose for the first time in three months, led by automakers. Overall industrial production was 0.9% behind the same time last year; manufacturers were down 1%. The capacity utilization rate, considered an early indicator of inflationary pressure, ticked down for the third month in a row. It has been below its long-term average since April 2021.
WednesdayThe pace of housing starts continued slowing in November, the Commerce Department reported. The annual rate of new construction slipped nearly 2% from October and was about 15% below where it was in November 2023. Starts for single-family houses rose 6% but were 10% below their year-earlier pace. Authorized building permits, an indicator of future construction, rose both overall and for single-family houses. Data from the report showed most housing activity down from levels just before the pandemic, when construction had just recovered from the Great Recession.
ThursdayThe U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024, according to a final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economy’s growth rate was up from an initial estimate of 2.8%, as exports and consumer spending gained momentum. The revision included a lower estimate on inventory buildup as well as higher imports, which detract from GDP. Third-quarter growth improved from the second quarter rate of 3%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row, the Labor Department reported. The gauge of employers’ willingness to release workers was 38% below the long-term average and up 8% from the low just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total jobless claims rose 16% in the latest week to just below 2 million, up 9% from the year before.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% in November, the first gain since February 2022. The index dropped 1.6% since May, narrowing a 1.9% decrease in the previous six months. The business research group said it expected the U.S. economy to finish 2024 with a 2.7% advance in GDP. It forecast a 2% growth in the economy in 2025.
Existing home sales rose 4.8% in November, edging above an annual sales rate of 4 million for the first time since March. The sales pace was up 6% from November 2023, the National Association of Realtors reported. The trade group said prospective home buyers are settling in on stagnant mortgage rates as homeowners are capitalizing on a collective $15 trillion in increased home equity in the last four years. Historically low inventories continued to push up prices. The median sales price of $406,100 was 4.7% higher than in November 2023, which marked the 17th consecutive year-to-year gain.
FridayBy far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.4% in November, while inflation ticked up for the second month in a row. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.3% in November, which meant a slight gain in personal saving. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, rose to 2.4% from November 2023 after reaching 2.1% in September – its narrowest increase since February 2021. The Fed’s long-term target for the measure is 2%. It hit a four-decade high of 7.2% In mid-2022.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index improved for the fifth month in a row in December as households continued to acknowledge a relatively strong U.S. economy with slower inflation. The index was up 3% from November and up 6% from December 2023, landing midway between a record low in mid-2022 and where the index stood just before the pandemic. The university reported a surge in plans for large purchases based on expectations for higher prices in the near future.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19573, down 354points or 1.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5931, down 120 or 2.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42839, down 989 points or 2.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.52%, up 0.13 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Tom Pappenfus * Mike Hoelzl*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 9-13, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, unchanged from an earlier estimate. Measured year over year, productivity advanced 2% from the third quarter of 2023. That compares to an average 1.5% annual gain since the end of 2019, which is below the 2.1% average since 1947. The productivity report showed unit labor costs running at a 0.8% annual pace during the latest quarter, down from an initial estimate of 1.9%. Adjusted for inflation, labor costs rose 1.6% from the third quarter of 2023.
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation ticked up in November, increasing on a year-to-year rate to 2.7%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index accelerated for the second month in a row, still above the long-range Federal Reserve target of 2% but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022. The CPI added 0.3% from October with shelter costs accounting for 40% of the gain. In the previous 12 months, shelter costs grew 4.7%, though that was the lowest increase in nearly three years. Excluding volatile costs for energy and food, the core CPI rose 3.3% from the year before for the third month in a row.
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level rose in November, as the Producer Price Index gained 0.4% from October, its largest increase since June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the cost of goods accounted for 60% of the PPI gain, mostly because of higher food prices, led by eggs. Compared to the year before, the index rose 3%, the most since early 2023. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 3.5% from the year before for the fourth time in five months.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but remained 38% below its 57-year average. The Labor Department reported that total claims fell 3.6% from the week before to fewer than 1.7 million. That was nearly 10% lower than the year before, suggesting employers overall continue to be reluctant to let workers go.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19927, up 67points or 0.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6051, down 39 or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43828, down 814 points or 1.8% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.40%, up 0.25 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Kendall Bauer * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Dec. 2-6, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe manufacturing shrank in November for the eighth month in a row and the 24th time in 25 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said manufacturers continued to experience soft demand, though new orders grew, and the overall index rose to its highest reading since June. The trade group said that based on past history, its index suggests the U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of 1.7%.
The Commerce Department said the annual pace of construction spending rose 0.4% in October. Residential spending, which accounts for more than 40% of the total, rose 1.5% from September, all because of increased expenditures on single-family housing. Compared to October 2023, total construction spending rose nearly 5%, including a 6.4% increase in residential spending and a 16.6% gain in manufacturing spending.
TuesdayEmployers’ appetite for new workers rose in October as job openings advance 5% to 7.7 million posts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that openings remained above pre-pandemic levels, though they were down nearly 11% from the year before. Openings had reached a high of 12.2 million in early 2022. The balance between demand and the supply of unemployed job seekers stayed relatively close. The rate of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – gained from September but has been below the pre-COVID level for nearly a year.
WednesdayDemand for manufactured goods improved in October, with factory orders rising for the first time in three months. Led by requests for commercial aircraft, orders gained 0.2% from September and were up 0.4% from October 2023. Excluding aircraft and other volatile transportation equipment, orders rose 0.1% for the month and were 1.4% higher than the year before, the Commerce Department reported. Orders for core capital goods, a measure of business investment, receded 0.2% from September and were up 0.5% from October 2022.
The service sector has returned to sustainable growth, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s ISM services index expanded in November, though at a slower pace, marking the fifth month in a row of expansion and the 51st time in 54 months. The ISM said supply managers surveyed for the index are expressing caution over prospects for increased tariffs.
ThursdayThe U.S. trade gap narrowed 12% to $73.8 billion in October. The value of exports shrank from September by 1.6%, led by automotive products. At the same time, imports declined 4%, led by computers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the trade deficit, which detracts from measures of economic output, grew 12% through the first 10 months of this year compared to the same period in 2023. In that time, exports grew nearly 4% and imports rose more than 5%.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in six weeks. Still, the numbers continued to suggest an overall reluctance to let workers go. Data from the Labor Department put the moving average for jobless applications at 40% below its 57-year average. Just over 1.7 million Americans claimed unemployment benefits in the latest week, up almost 4% from the week before, and nearly 11% more than the same time last year.
FridayEmployers continued to add jobs in November and at a brisker pace, while the unemployment rate ticked up. The latest employment report, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed 227,000 more jobs in November, exceeding the 12-month average of 186,000, the 47th consecutive gain. Bar and restaurant employment expanded above pre-pandemic levels for the ninth month in a row. Temporary help – considered a harbinger of hiring trends – was below the pre-COVID number for the 16th consecutive month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% In October. Unemployment was at 3.7% In November 2023, near the lowest levels since the 1960s.
Consumer sentiment continued to strengthen as a reflection of the overall economy, the University of Michigan reported. A preliminary look at survey data for December showed the university’s sentiment index had risen for the fifth month in a row to its highest level since April. The index was up 3.1% from November and 6.2% from December 2023. its all-time low in June 2022. The report noted that political partisanship continued to factor into individual expectations for the economy, with Republicans believing conditions will improve and Democrats expecting the worse.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19860, up 642 points or 3.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6090, up 58 or 1.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44643, down 268 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.15%, down 0.03 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Steve Giles
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)
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Gratitude is an enriching attitude, by Joel Dresang
Bigger bang from charitable contributions, a Money Talk Video with Art Rothschild
IRS Publication 526, Charitable ContributionsCharitable Contributions, IRS Tax Topic
An IRS FAQ on qualified charitable distributions from IRAs
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19218, up 214 points or 1.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 6032, up 63 or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44911, up 614 points or 1.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.20%, down 0.21 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Steve Giles
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 18-22, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayHousing construction data continued to show a slowdown in October, based on the annual pace of building permits and housing starts. A report from the Commerce Department showed both authorizations and starts stayed below their pre-pandemic pace. At the same time, the rate of housing units under construction remained around the highest since the mid-1970s, though it has slowed for 11 months in a row.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the fourth week in a row, dipping to its lowest point since early May, 40% below the 57-year average. The measure continued to indicate employers’ reluctance to let workers go. Total claims rose slightly to just under 1.7 million, up more than 4% from the same time last year.
The U.S. economy showed signs of challenges ahead as the Conference Board reported a steeper decline in its October index of leading economic indicators. The business research group reported a 0.4% drop in the index from September. The index had fallen 2.2% since April, down from a 2% decline in the prior six months. Manufacturing orders, factory hours, unemployment claims, building permits and a negative yield curve all pulled the index down in October, the Conference Board said.
The National Association of Realtors reported another decline in existing home sales in October. The annual sales rate dropped 3.4% from September to just below 4 million houses and condos. That was 2.9% ahead of the pace in October 2023, though, resulting in the first year-to-year improvement in sales since mid-2021. The trade group said rising inventories and a solid job market amid stabilizing mortgage rates could help housing demand. The median sales price rose to $407,200, which was up 4.2% from October 2023, the 16th consecutive year-to-year gain in prices.
FridayConsidered a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, rose for the fourth month in a row in November. The longstanding index from the University of Michigan dipped slightly from a preliminary mid-month reading but rose 1.8% from October and was up 17% from November 2023. Outlooks on the economy and personal finances flip-flopped according to partisan affiliation following the Nov. 5 election, the university reported. Near-term expectations for inflation reached the lowest since the end of 2020, but long-term expectations for inflation rose slightly to 3.2%, reflecting increased uncertainty.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19004, up 324 points or 1.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5969, up 99 points or 1.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 44297, up 852 points or 2.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.41%, down 0.02 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Dave Sandstrom
Kendall Bauer
(with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 11-15, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayThe pace of inflation rose in October for the first time in seven months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, increased 2.6% from the year before, up from September’s 2.4%, which was the smallest since February 2021. The index reached a four-decade high exceeding 9% in mid-2022. For the month, the CPI rose 0.2%, the same as the previous three months. Shelter costs accounted for more than half of the October increase. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% from October 2023, the same pace as in September.
ThursdayInflation on the wholesale level rose at a slightly faster pace in October, according to the Producer Price Index. The gauge gained 0.2% from September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The PPI rose 0.1% in September. The one-year wholesale inflation rate was 2.4%, up from 2.3% in September, but down from nearly 12% in the spring of 2022. Excluding volatile costs for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core PPI rose 3.5% from October 2023, up from 3.3% in September.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third week in a row to its lowest point since May, according to the Labor Department. The measure was 39% below the 57-year average, suggesting the relative tightness of the labor market. Total claims rose 1.9% in the latest week to more than 1.7 million, which was 2.4% higher than the year before.
FridayRetail sales rose more than analysts expected in October. The Commerce Department reported that sales increased 0.3% from September, with eight of 13 categories reporting higher receipts, including car dealers, appliance centers and bars and restaurants. Since October 2023, total retail sales rose 2.8%, led by online retailers and car dealers. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales were up 0.2% from September.
The Federal Reserve reported a slight decline in industrial production in October, the second setback in a row and the third in four months. Striking workers at Boeing held back output by 0.2 percentage point while hurricanes Helene and MiIton subtracted 0.1 point from October’s production, the Fed said. Boeing settled its strike later in the month. Compared to October 2023, U.S. industrial output was down 0.3% and capacity utilization sank to 77.1%, the lowest in three and a half years.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18680, down 607 points or 3.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5871, down 125 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43445, down 544 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.43%, up 0.12 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowArt Rothschild
Tom Pappenfus
Mike Hoelzl
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Nov. 4-8, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayReflecting weak demand for manufacturing goods, the Commerce Department said the value of factory orders fell in September for the second month in a row and the fourth time in five months. Sales of commercial aircraft led the decline. While orders overall dropped 0.5% from August, commercial aircraft fell 22%. Compared to September 2023, total orders were unchanged, but excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 1.3%. Demand for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.7% from August and were up 0.3% from the year before.
TuesdayImports rose while exports slumped in September, thus widening the U.S. trade gap by 19% to $84.4 billion. The value of exports declined by 1.2% from August, led by drops in pharmaceutical products, commercial aircraft and crude oil, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Imports rose by 3%, possibly as U.S. companies anticipated higher tariffs. Through the first three quarters of 2024, the trade deficit widened nearly 12% from the same time in 2023, with exports gaining nearly 4% and imports growing more than 5%. Trade deficits detract from gross domestic product, the broadest measure of overall economic growth, and held back third-quarter gains by more than half a percentage point.
The service sector of the U.S. economy grew in October for the fourth month in a row and at the fastest rate since July 2022. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index showed business activity and new orders growing, though at a slower pace, while hiring expanded after previously contracting. The trade group said its survey of purchasing managers suggests the overall economy was growing at an annual rate of 2.3%. Survey respondents expressed concerns about political uncertainty as well as the hurricanes and port strikes that occurred in October.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said the annual rate of worker productivity rose in the third quarter by 2.2%, as economic output advanced at a 3.5% pace and hours worked grew by 2.2%. Measuring year to year, third-quarter productivity rose 2%, exceeding the 1.8% average annual pace since the current business cycle began at the end of 2019, just before the COVID pandemic. That’s better than the 1.5% during the previous cycle that began with the Great Recession at the end of 2007. Since 1947, productivity has averaged 2.1% a year. The same report showed labor costs rising at a 1.9% pace in the third quarter and up 3.4% from the same time last year.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row to its lowest level in five weeks. Data from the Labor Department showed the four-week average down 41% from its 57-year average, reflecting continued reluctance by employers to let workers leave amid a relatively tight hiring market. More than 1.6 million Americans were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.5% from the week before and up 2.7% from the same time in 2023.
As expected, the Federal Reserve Board eased short-term interest rates in its efforts to preserve the labor market amid softening inflation. The Fed’s policymaking board – the Federal Open Market Committee – lowered the benchmark fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The cut followed a half-point reduction in September, the Fed’s first cut after more than two years of increasing interest rates to combat decades-high inflation.
The Federal Reserve reported that revolving consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 0.9% in September. Following a 1.9% decline in August, the increase suggests consumer spending – which drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy – remained resilient. The pace of credit card debt reached 2.8% in the third quarter, up from 2.6% in the second quarter but down from a 6.3% annual rate in the first quarter. Credit card borrowing took two years to recover from its pre-pandemic peak. In contrast, it took a decade to recover from the financial collapse and the Great Recession.
FridayThe University of Michigan said consumer sentiment is rising for the fourth month in a row to its highest level since May. Consumers surveyed in the university’s preliminary November report registered their highest expectations for the economy and their personal finances since July 2021. Overall sentiment was up 50% from its historic low in mid-2022 but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Expectations for long-term inflation were “modestly elevated” from where they were just before the pandemic. Economists follow sentiment surveys for possible signs of consumer spending trends.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 19287, up 1047 points or 5.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5996, up 267 points or 4.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43989, up 1937 points or 4.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.31%, down 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting * Adam Baley * John Sandstrom*
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo significant reports
TuesdayU.S. employers posted 7.4 million job openings in September, the fewest since the beginning of 2021. The demand for workers dropped from an all-time high of 12.2 million in mid-2022 but remained above the pre-pandemic level of 6.9 million, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a measure of confidence in finding new jobs – stayed below the pre-pandemic mark for the sixth month in a row.
Housing prices continued weakening in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. The measure showed the year-to-year gain in residential prices up 4.2%, down from 4.8% in July and the sixth consecutive deceleration. The index was at its lowest level in 11 months. A spokesperson for the index cited seasonal softening in demand as a factor.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in October, registering the biggest boost since March 2021. Still, the business research group said consumer optimism remained within a narrow range that has persisted the past two years. Consumers showed greater confidence in both current conditions and expectations.
WednesdayThe U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.8% in the third quarter, down from 3% in the second quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said growth in gross domestic product slowed from a decline in business inventories and a bigger drop in housing investments. Consumer spending, which generates almost 70% of economic activity, advanced at a 3.7% annual rate, the highest since the beginning of 2023. Adjusted for inflation, GDP reached a record $23.4 trillion, up 2.7% from the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index jumped 7.4% in September, boosted by higher inventory and lower mortgage rates. The index reached its highest point in six months and was up 2.6% from the year before but 24% below its 2001 base. The trade association said it expects further sales growth if employers continue hiring, inventories keep climbing and mortgage rates steady. The group forecast two years of recovery from recent sluggishness and said housing price increases should settle closer to overall inflation rates.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, as personal income gained 0.3%, lowering the personal saving rate to 4.6% of disposable income, the lowest since December. Consumer spending increased both in goods (led by pharmaceuticals and cars) and services (led by health care and housing). The personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure for inflation, dropped to 2.1% from September 2023, the lowest since February 2021. That’s down from a 20-year high of 7.2% in June 2022 and near the Fed’s long-run target of 2%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in four weeks, continuing to reflect an historically tight labor market. The measure was 35% below the all-time average, according to Labor Department data going back to 1967. The report said more than 1.6 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up nearly 2% from the week before and up 3% from the year before.
FridayU.S. employers added 12,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report clouded by two hurricanes and a couple of labor strikes. Employment rose for the 46th month in a row but far below the 12-month average of 194,000. The bureau revised August and September job counts down by 112,000, suggesting the labor market has been softening. The average wage rose 4% from the year before, continuing to outpace general inflation.
The manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 23rd time in 24 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of industry purchasing managers, showed new orders and hiring declining at a slower rate while production dropped faster. The group said based on past index readings, GDP is growing at an annual rate of 1.1%.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose slightly in September, aided by single-family housing. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $2 trillion, expenditures were up 0.1% from the August pace and up 4.6% from the year before. Spending on residential construction, which accounted for 43% of the total, rose 0.2% for the month and was 4.2% higher than the year-ago pace. Expenditures on factory construction rose more than 20% from the year before.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18240, down 279 points or 1.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5729, down 79 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42052, down 63 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.36%, up 0.12 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Dave Sandstrom
Kendall Bauer
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Blake Miller)
Week in Review (Oct. 21-25)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Conference Board said its September index of leading economic indicators pointed to continued uncertainty, suggesting moderate economic growth into 2025. The business research group reported a 0.5% decline in the index, following a 0.3% setback in August. The group blamed the September drop-off on weak factory orders, fewer building permits, an inverted yield curve and low consumer expectations. The six-month decline in the index reached 2.6% after dropping 2.2% in the previous six months.
TuesdayNo major releases
WednesdayThe housing sector continued to sputter in September, with existing home sales declining 1% from August and 3.5% behind the year-ago pace. At an annual rate of 3.8 million houses, sales stayed stuck around the same level they’ve been in the past 12 months, although the National Association of Realtors pointed to encouraging signs, including rising inventories, lower mortgage rates and continued job growth. The median sale price rose to $404,500, up 3% from the year before, which the Realtors pointed out was lower than overall wage gains.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row to reach its highest level since August. Data from the Labor Department showed the new-claim average still 34% below the 57-year average, indicating that the job market remained relatively tight. New claims were about 14% higher than they were just before the 2020 pandemic. In the latest week, 1.6 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down nearly 1% from the week before but up 3.5% from the same time last year.
The annual rate of new home sales gained 4% in September to its fastest pace since May 2023. The volatile indicator from the Commerce Department was 6% ahead of its pace in September 2023 and beat the level just before the COVID pandemic for the third month in a row. The median sale price was $426,300 nearly even with the year before. Data showed fewer new-home sales were priced above $600,00 compared to September 2023, while more were completed structures, as opposed to still being built.
FridayDemand for long-lasting manufactured products fell 0.8% in September, the second dip in a row and the third decline in four months. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders through the first nine months of 2024 were down 1.5% from the same time in 2023. Orders for commercial aircraft led the decline. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders rose 0.4% from August and were up 1.2% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, gained 0.5% from August and were up 0.3% from September 2023.
Often a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment rose in October for the third month in a row. The University of Michigan reported that its survey-based index advanced to its highest level in six months, up 40% from its all-time low in June 2022. University researchers said expectations for next-year inflation were on par with their levels just before the pandemic, though longer-term outlooks were higher. The university said elections “loom large” over consumers’ attitudes, and spending plans likely will adjust based on whomever gets elected.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18519, up 29 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5808, down 57 points or 1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42114, down 1162 points or 2.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.23%, up 0.16 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Mike Hoelzl
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Oct. 14-18, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayIn a further sign of economic resilience, consumers continued spending at stores in September with retail sales advancing 0.4% from August. Sales rose 0.3%, adjusted for inflation. The Commerce Department reported that only three of 13 major categories had sales declines in September: furniture stores, appliance centers and gas stations. Gas station sales continued to fall because of lower prices. Economists watch retail sales as an indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, reaching the highest level in two months but staying 35% below the long-term average, dating to 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go continued to indicate a relatively tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims remained at 1.6 million in the latest week, up more than 3% from the year before.
Two hurricanes and a labor strike at Boeing contributed to a setback in U.S. industrial production in September. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial output sank 0.3% from August, including broad declines among durable goods manufacturers. Total output dropped 0.7% from the year before. The same report showed the capacity utilization rate, a measure of potential inflation pressure, fell for the second month in a row and remained below the long-time average for the 22nd month in a row.
FridayThe U.S. housing market continued to weaken in September as the pace for both housing starts and building permits hovered below pre-pandemic levels. Figures from the Commerce Department showed new construction was more than 25% below its pace in mid-2022 peak. The pace of housing permits, an indicator of commitments to future homebuilding, also fell below the level just before COVID, but both permits and starts remained at levels on par with 2007, before the Great Recession. The rate of houses under construction receded to the pace three years ago, which was the fastest in 50 years.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18490, up 147 points or 0.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5865, up 50 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 43276, up 412 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.07%, no change
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Tom Pappenfus
Mike Hoelzl
(with Max Hoelzl, and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (October 7-11, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayConsumers showed more caution about spending in August, as the amount of credit card debt outstanding fell for the second time in three months. The Federal Reserve Board reported that so-called revolving debt declined at an annual rate of 1.2% from July. The rate sank 0.4% in June. But in July, credit card debt rose over 9%. Economists watch revolving debt as a sign of confidence among consumers, whose spending accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product. Total consumer debt outstanding, including car financing and student loans, rose in August at a 2.1% annual rate.
TuesdayThe U.S. trade deficit shrank by nearly 11% in August to $70.4 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The gap between imported goods and services and the value of goods and services the U.S. sells elsewhere detracts from overall economic output. Compared to July, U.S. exports rose 2% and imports declined by 0.9%. Through the first eight months of the year, the trade gap widened nearly 9% from the year before, with exports up 4% and imports up 5%.
WednesdayNo major announcements
ThursdayShelter costs and food accounted for 75% of the 0.2% increase in inflation in September, as the 12-month pace of prices slowed to its lowest level since early 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the government’s broadest measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index, rose 2.4% from the year before. The index was down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in mid-2022. The monthly gain included continued price increases for shelter costs and higher food prices, featuring an 8% jump in egg prices. Gas prices dropped 4% in September. The core CPI, which strips out volatile costs for food and energy, rose 0.3% from August and 3.3% from September 2023. Shelter contributed 65% of the core’s one-year increase.
Based on CPI data, the Social Security Administration announced a 2.5% adjustment to benefits in 2025. That was a drop from 3.2% in 2024 and 8.7% in 2023, the biggest raise for Social Security recipients since 1981. The average cost-of-living adjustment since Social Security began adjusting benefits to inflation in 1976: 3.7%. Social Security said the average recipient can expect an added $50 or so in their benefit checks, beginning in January.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in four weeks but continued to reflect a historically tight labor market. The average was 37% below the all-time average, begun in 1967, according to data from the Labor Department. More than 1.6 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 0.9% from the week before but up nearly 2% from the same time last year.
FridayPrices on the wholesale level were unchanged overall in September and rose at their lowest annual rate since February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index stayed even with August in part because of a 3% dip in energy costs. Demand for goods declined at the same margin as the increase in demand for services. Since September 2023, the PPI rose 1.8%, the slightest rate in seven months. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI advanced 0.1% for the month and was up 3.2% from the year before, which was the lowest in three months.
A preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in October showed lower confidence than September but within the margin of error, according to the University of Michigan. The longstanding survey-based index was 8% ahead of where it was in October 2023 and 40% above the all-time low in mid-2022. Over the year, consumers have raised expectations on lower fears of inflation, but they have become less approving of current conditions because of higher prices. A university researcher added: “With the upcoming election on the horizon, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the longer term trajectory of the economy.”
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18343, up 205 points or 1.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5815, up 64 points or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42864, up 511 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.08%, up 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Steve Giles
Tom Pappenfus
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo significant releases
TuesdayManufacturing continued its slump in September, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index. The index signaled contraction for the sixth month in a row and the 22nd time in 23 months. At the same time, the measure suggested the U.S. economy overall expanded for the 53rd consecutive month. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group said demand for manufactured goods was down and that companies were unwilling to invest in capital and inventory because of concerns over Federal Reserve policies and election uncertainty.
The Commerce Department said the annual rate of construction spending declined slightly in August for the third month in a row, though it was 4% ahead of the year-ago pace. Residential expenditures, which accounted for 42% of total spending, also slowed from August and were up 3% from the year before. Government spending on construction rose both for the month and compared to August 2023.
Employers expanded job openings in August for the first time in four months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of help-wanted posts rose more than 4% to 8 million openings. Demand for employees has slid from an all-time high of 12 million openings in March 2022 but remains above the pre-pandemic level of 7 million. Data showed little change in the numbers of hires or separations. The rate of employees quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – was below the February 2020 level for the 10th month in a row.
WednesdayNo significant releases
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks, employers remained relatively reluctant to part with workers. Data from the Labor Department showed average new applications for jobless benefits were 38% below the 57-year average and at the lowest level in four months. More than 1.6 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before and up 2% from the same time in 2023.
Orders for factory goods fell in August for the third time in four months, the Commerce Department reported. Manufacturing orders shrank 0.2% from July and were up only 0.3% from the year before. Declines were led by a drop in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand fell 0.1% from July and rose 1.6% year to year. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.3% both for the month and from the year before.
The U.S. services sector expanded in September for the third month in a row and at the fastest pace since in 19 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed stronger business activity and new orders, which offset mixed results in hiring and supplies. The trade group said that based on past data, the index suggested the entire U.S. economy was growing at a 1.9% annual pace. Supply managers said they welcomed Fed rate cuts but had concerns about labor costs and political uncertainty.
FridayEmployers added 254,000 jobs in September, above the 12-month average of 203,000 and the 45th consecutive month of gains. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported broad increases in payroll jobs, with notable additions by the construction industry and bars and restaurants. Temporary help, sometimes a harbinger of wider hiring trends, was down 16% from its peak in early 2022 and stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the 12th month in a row. Average hourly wages rose 4% from the year before, continuing to outpace overall inflation. A separate household survey showed the unemployment rate at 4.1% in September, down slightly from August.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18138, up 18 points or 0.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5751, up 13 points or 0.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42353, up 23 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.98%, up 0.23 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 23-27, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayHousing prices reached another all-time high July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Although prices peaked for the 14th month in a row, the pace of increase slowed to 5% above the year-ago level, down from 5.5% in June. That was the fourth monthly deceleration since February, when prices were up 6.5% from the year before. Of the top 20 housing markets, 18 showed weaker pricing, including eight that had decreases from June. An S&P analyst said houses in lower price tiers continued to gain the fastest.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell in September by the widest margin in more than three years. The business research group said more consumers expressed concerns about labor conditions, although fewer worried about recession, which the Conference Board had warned about through much of 2023. Prices and inflation still ranked as top economic fears, even though the group noted that price gains overall have been ebbing.
WednesdayThe seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales fell nearly 5% in August, although it remained above the pre-pandemic level. The Commerce Department reported the sales rate was up nearly 10% from the same time last year and the median price was down almost 5%, as lower-priced houses made up a greater share of the sales. The sales pace of 716,000 houses in August compared to a recent high of nearly 1 million in late 2020 and an all-time peak of 1.4 million in 2005. The supply of new houses for sale outpaced the pre-pandemic level for the 39th month in a row.
ThursdayThe Commerce Department said orders for durable goods were unchanged in August following a 10% increase in July and a nearly 7% decline in June. A swing in large orders for commercial aircraft affected the month-to-month totals. Excluding transportation equipment, demand for durable goods rose 0.5% in August. Compared to August 2023, orders declined 1.3% for all durable goods but rose 1.2% not counting transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.2% from July and were up 0.3% from the year before.
The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 3% in the second quarter of 2024, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The rate was unchanged from a previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and improved from 1.6% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, which drives more than two-thirds of the economy, was slightly slower than initially estimated but still a steady 2.8% annual rate.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dropped for the sixth time in seven weeks, falling to the lowest level since early June. The average was down 38% from its 57-year average, highlighting employers’ continued reluctance to let workers go. The Labor Department said nearly 1.7 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down 2% from the week before.
The National Association of Realtors said its index on pending home sales rose 0.6% in August after reaching a record low in July. The indicator of housing demand ticked up as slightly lower mortgage rates have helped improve affordability, the trade group said. Plans to buy houses were down 3% from the year before. According to the index, pending home sales are about 70% of what they were in 2001.
FridayConsumer spending increased 0.2% in August, in line with gains in income for the month but at the slowest pace since January. Corrected for inflation, spending was up 0.1%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending rose only in services, led by housing, financial services and insurance. Spending on goods declined. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditure index – edged down to 2.2% from the same time last year, the smallest increase in three and a half years. The rate reached a four-decade high of 7.1% in June 2022. Just before the 2020 pandemic, it was at 1.6%.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose 3% in September on broad improvements in both expectations and assessments of current conditions. Though still below historic averages and held back by concerns about prices, consumers’ overall outlook reflected recognition that inflation overall has been moderating. The director of the survey said sentiment appears to be building momentum even while many consumers say they’re tying their expectations to the results of the presidential election.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18120, up 171 points or 1.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5738, up 36 points or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42313, up 250 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.75%, up 0.02 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
John Sandstrom
with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik
Week in Review (Sept. 16-20, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayThe Commerce Department reported a 0.1% rise in retail sales in August. Sales rose in only five of 13 categories, led by online retailers. Decliners included car dealerships, supermarkets and gas stations, where lower prices meant a drop in revenue. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell 0.1% in August.
U.S. industrial output rose 0.8% in August, bouncing back from a 0.9% setback in July. The auto industry was the chief driver, the Federal Reserve reported. Output at U.S. car factories rebounded in August after seasonal plant shutdowns in July. Since August 2023, overall industrial production was unchanged, with manufacturing output up 0.2%. Meanwhile, capacity utilization rose marginally but remained below the 50-year average for the 18th month in a row.
WednesdayRates of housing starts and building permits picked up in August, according to the Commerce Department. The annual pace of starts rose nearly 10% from July and were about 4% above the year before, with critical single-family structures taking the lead in both periods. For the sixth month in a row, housing starts lagged the level set before the pandemic, which was the fastest pace of building since late 2006. Housing permits – an indication of future housing construction – rose almost 5% from July and were down 6.5% from August 2023. The pace of houses under construction remained among the highest in 50 years, though it was about 12% below the all-time peak set two years ago.
The policy-making body of the Federal Reserve Board reduced short-term lending rates and signaled more cuts are on the horizon. The Federal Open Market Committee reversed two and a half years of efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates to their highest level in more than 20 years. The Fed’s aggressive half-point cut in the fed funds rate signaled its confidence in taming inflation while shifting attention to the health of the labor market.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the fifth time in six weeks. The measure was 38% below the all-time average and the lowest since early June, according to data from the Labor Department, a sign of employers’ continued reluctance to let workers go. Barely 1.7 million Americans were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 5% the week before but up 3% from the year before.
The annual rate of existing home sales fell in August for the fifth time in six months, dropping 2.5% from July’s pace and down more than 4% from the year before. The National Association of Realtors said an increase in inventory and a decrease in mortgage rates should boost sales activity in coming months. The median sales price hit $416,700 in August, up 3% from the year before and the 14th consecutive month of year-to-year price increases.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators declined in August for the sixth month in a row. The index fell 0.2% from July because of weaker factory orders, consumer expectations and stock prices as well as a negative interest rate spread. But August’s decline was less than July’s, and the six-month slide of 2.3% compared to a 2.7% setback in the previous six months. The business research group projected weaker economic growth for the rest of 2024 but said activity should pick up in 2025 because of the Fed’s plans to lower interest rates.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17948, up 264 points or 1.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5703, up 77 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 42062, up 668 points or 1.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.73%, up 0.08 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Steve Giles
Dave Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 9-13, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayIn a sign of resilient consumer spending, the Federal Reserve Board reported another rise in consumer credit debt outstanding in July. Total debt rose at a 6% annual rate, and more significantly, revolving credit climbed at a clip of 9.4%. Revolving credit is mostly consumer credit card debt, and its advance in July was the 38th in 39 months, following a slight decline in June. Rising credit card use suggests consumers’ confidence in their spending, which accounts for more two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
TuesdayNo major announcements
WednesdayThe broadest measure of inflation reached its lowest level in three and a half years in August. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from the month before, led by a 0.5% increase in shelter costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to the same time last year, the inflation rate edged down to 2.5%, the slimmest margin since February 2021. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy items, rose 3.2% from the year before, tied with July as the lowest since April 2021. The Federal Reserve Board has used higher interest rates to dampen inflation since 2022, when the CPI hit a four-decade high of 9.1%. Analysts expect the central bank to beginning cutting rates this month as inflation has neared the long-range target of 2%. The average annual CPI since 1914 was 3.3%.
ThursdayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 0.2% in August. It marked only the second gain in four months, with no change in May or July. Costs of services made up the entire increase because good prices overall were level. Since August 2023, the PPI rose 1.7%, the lowest in six months. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.3% from July and was up 3.3% from the year before.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in five weeks. According to Labor Department data, the average moved to 230,750 new applications, 37% below the average since 1967. Just over 18 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down more than 2% from the week before and 3% higher than the year before.
FridayThe University of Michigan reported preliminary results of its September consumer sentiment index. The longstanding report is based on surveys of consumers, whose spending drives more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17684, up 993 points or 6.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5626, up 218 points or 4.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41394, up 1048 points or 2.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.65%, down 0.06 point
Advisors on this Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Kendall Bauer
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Sept. 2-6, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayMarkets and government agencies closed for Labor Day
TuesdayThe manufacturing sector contracted in August for the 21st time in 22 months. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the rate of decline slowed slightly from July, but key components in its index – news orders and production – fell faster. In a statement, the trade group said in part, “Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative.”
The Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.3% in July, the first decline since October 2022. Spending on residential construction, accounting for 44% of total expenditures, dipped 0.4% from June, led by single-family housing. Compared to July 2023, total construction spending rose 6.7% while spending on housing rose 7.7%. Manufacturing, representing 11% of all construction spending, was up more than 20% from the year before.
WednesdayThe U.S. trade deficit widened by nearly 8% in July to $78.8 billion – the biggest gap in two years. Exports rose 0.5% from June, led by automotive vehicles, gem diamonds and semiconductors. Imports increased 2.1%, led by computer accessories and non-monetary gold. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that through July, the trade gap widened more than 7% from the year before with a 3.7% gain in exports and a 4.5% rise in imports. Trade deficits detract from U.S. economic growth, as measured by the gross domestic product.
Employer demand for workers slowed in July with job openings declining to 7.7 million postings, the lowest since January 2021. As many as 12 million openings were posted in the spring of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July’s job openings still exceeded the number of unemployed workers looking for work, but it was the narrowest gap between supply and demand in more than three years. In a sign that workers continue to lose confidence in the labor market, the number of workers quitting their jobs to seek other positions stayed below the pre-pandemic level for the eighth month in a row.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose in July for the first time in five months. The measure of demand for manufactured goods gained 5%, led by sales of commercial aircraft. Through the first seven months of 2024, orders were up 0.4% from the year before. Excluding requests for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.4% from June and were up 1.9% from July 2023. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, declined 0.4% for the month and were up 0.5% from the year before.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, dropping to 37% below the 57-year average, a sign that employers continue to be relatively reluctant about letting workers go. The Labor Department reported that total claims slipped less than 1% from the week before to just below 1.9 million, which was up 3.5% from the year before.
Worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, reflecting a 3.5% uptick in output and a 1% increase in hours worked. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported that labor costs rose at an annual rate of 0.4% during the quarter Since the second quarter of 2023, productivity rose 2.7%, and labor costs increased 0.3% – the lowest since 2013. Adjusted for inflation, hourly compensation fell 0.1% in the last year. According to the report, average annual productivity has grown 1.6% since the end of 2019, slightly ahead of the pace during the previous economic cycle, which started in 2007. Since 1947, productivity has averaged 2.1%.
The U.S. service sector expanded in August for the second month in a row at about the same pace as July. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey of purchasing managers showed general optimism for slow growth hampered by pressures from interest rates and concerns about costs. The trade group said the index suggested the U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 0.8%.
FridayIn another sign that the strong labor market may be losing momentum, U.S. employers added jobs in August for the 44th month in a row but at a slower rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls expanded by 142,000 jobs, down 30% from the 12-month pace. The agency also revised June and July job counts downward by 86,000. Hiring of temporary help employees, often an indicator of labor trends, fell to the lowest level since 2020 and was 15% below its peak two years ago. The unemployment rate for August bumped down to 4.2% from 4.3% in July. But a measure of underemployment rose to its highest level in nearly three years.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 16691, down 1023 points or 5.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5408, down 240 points or 4.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40345, down 1218 points or 2.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.71%, down 0.20 point
Advisors on this Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Adam Baley
Mike Hoelzl
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 26-30, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayManufacturing demand rose in July for the fifth time in six months, mostly on the wings of increased commercial aircraft orders. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 9.9% from June, though they fell 0.2% when transportation equipment was excluded. Compared to the year before, orders for long-lasting manufactured items were down 1.4% but up 1.4% excluding transportation. A measure of business investment, core capital goods orders, dipped 0.1% from June but rose 0.5% from July 2023.
TuesdayPrice increases for houses rose to a record level in June, though at a slower pace, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Prices increased 0.2% from May, which had been up 03% from April, adjusting for inflation. Unadjusted, the price index rose 5.4% from June 2023, compared to a 5.9% 12-month gain in May. An analyst with the index noted that house prices continued to far outpace overall inflation – and at a wider gap than usual. The analyst said, adjusted for inflation, home prices have about doubled since 1974 and that lower-priced housing is becoming more expensive at a faster rate than other tiers in most markets.
Amid higher expectations for businesses and increased concerns about jobs and stocks, consumer confidence rose in August, though it stayed within a narrow range that has prevailed since 2022. The Conference Board reported that overall expectations fell below a level associated with recessions for the second month in a row. The business research group said that although consumers continued to complain about prices, their expectations for inflation were the lowest since March 2020. Consumer plans for homebuying reached a 12-year low.
WednesdayNo major releases
ThursdayBecause of brisker consumer spending in the second quarter, the U.S. economy grew at a 3% annual pace instead of an initial estimate of 2.8%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said it revised the gross domestic product higher mostly because personal consumption – which accounts for about 70% of economic growth – rose at a 2.9% annual rate, up from a prior estimate of 2.3%. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose at a pace of 2.5%, the slowest pace in more than three years.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row, suggesting continued reluctance by employers to let workers go. According to Labor Department data, new jobless claims reached their lowest level in 11 weeks and remained 36% below the 57-year average. Total claims fell 1.3% from the week before to just under 1.9 million, which was up 3% from the same time last year.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index sank in July to its lowest level in its 23 years. The trade association said prospects for sales dipped 5.5% from June and 8.5% from July 2023. The index reading was nearly 30% below the baseline on sales activity set in 2001. In a statement, the Realtors chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said: “The positive impact of job growth and higher inventory could not overcome affordability challenges and some degree of wait-and-see related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election.”
FridayPersonal spending rose a healthy 0.5% in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The spending increase exceeded the month’s 0.3% gain in personal income, which meant the personal saving rate slowed to 2.9% of disposable income, the lowest since June 2022. The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation rose 2.5% from July 2023, the same pace as June and tied for the lowest rate in three years.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index rose for the first time in five months in August, as Americans took a slightly dimmer view of current economic conditions but broadly agreed that the long-term outlook had improved. The survey-based measure was 36% above its all-time low, reached in June 2022. It was 2% lower than in August 2023. A university economist noted that sentiment tends to tie closely with political affiliation. Sentiment is considered a bellwether for consumer spending.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17714, down 164 points or 0.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5648, up 14 points or 0.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41563, up 388 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.91%, up 0.10 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Mike Hoelzl
Kendall Bauer
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 19-23, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators fell again in July, but the six-month decline decelerated from the previous six months, no longer signaling recession. The business research group said its index dropped 0.6% from June, led mostly by non-financial indicators. But the six-month reading was down 2.1%, compared to a dip of 3.1% in the previous six months. The Conference Board forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by an annual rate of 0.6% in the third quarter, followed by a 1% growth rate in the last three months of the year.
TuesdayNo significant releases
WednesdayMinutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed that members of the Federal Reserve’s policy group observed continued progress toward tamping down the inflation rate to a long-range target of 2%. The FOMC had raised short-term lending rates to cool the economy as inflation reached a four-decade high in mid-2022. The group is scheduled to meet again Sept. 17-18 to consider whether it’s ready to start lowering rates.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims fell for the second week in a row. At 236,000 claims, the average was 35% below the 57-year average, suggesting continued reluctance by employers to let go of workers. The Labor Department reported that 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 1.3% from the week before and up 3.7% from the same time last year.
The sluggish real estate market ended a four-month streak of lower sales in July as existing home sales rose 1.3%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales reached an annual pace of 3.95 million houses, up 1.6% from June and 2.5% below the rate in July 2023. The trade association said stubbornly low inventory ticked up compared to both the month and the year before. Affordability improved as mortgage rates declined. The median sales price was $422,600, up 4.2% from the year before, the 13th consecutive increase in prices.
FridayThough a fraction of the overall market, the annual rate of new home sales rose 10.6% in July to its fastest pace in 14 months, the Commerce Department reported. The sales pace reached 739,000 houses, which was 4.5% ahead of where it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of new houses on the market ebbed to a 10-month low. Meanwhile, the median sales price dipped 1.4% from the year before to $429,800.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17878, up 246 points or 1.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5635, up 80 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 41175, up 515 points or 1.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.81%, down 0.09 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Steve Giles
John Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 12-16, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major announcements
TuesdayInflation on the wholesale level rose 0.1% in July and was up 2.2% from the year before, according to the Producer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics the price for goods increased the most in one month since February, led by a 2.8% gain in gasoline. Services prices, meanwhile, dipped the most since March 2023. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.3% from June and was up 3.3% from July 2023.
WednesdayThe pace of consumer inflation continued eased in July to its lowest level in more than three years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% from July 2023. The rate was still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%, but it was the lowest rate since March 2021 and down from a 41-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Shelter costs accounted for 90% of the 0.2% increase in the index from June, the first monthly gain in three months. The price of gasoline was unchanged after two months of decline. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 3.2% from the year before, the lowest since April 2021.
ThursdayA rebound for car dealers helped boost retail sales in July. Consumers spent 1% more at stores, bars, restaurants and online in June as 10 of 13 retailer categories posted higher sales, the Commerce Department reported. Sales at car dealers rose 3.6% after falling 3.4% in June attributed to software glitches. Adjusting for inflation, total retail sales rose 0.8% in July. Economists watch the retail numbers because consumer spending makes up nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production dipped in July, citing disruptions from Hurricane Beryl and slower automotive output, possibly tied to seasonal plant shutdowns. Production fell 0.6% overall, the first decline in four months, and was down 0.2% from July 2023. Excluding the auto industry, factory production rose 0.3% from June. Industries’ capacity utilization rate shrank to 77.8%. It has stayed below the long-term average of 79.7% since the end of 2022, suggesting low pressure for inflation.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in five weeks. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average was 35% below the long-term average dating back to 1967. Total jobless claims dropped 1.4% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was up 5.3% from the same time in 2023.
FridayThe Commerce Department reported on the annual rate of building permits and housing starts for July.
The University of Michigan reported on its consumer sentiment index.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17632, up 886 points or 5.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5554, up 210 points or 3.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40660, up 1162 points or 2.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.89%, down 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Adam Baley
John Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (Aug. 5-9, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayThe non-manufacturing sector went into expansion mode again in July, according to the ISM Services Index. The survey-based report from the Institute for Supply Management had shown contraction in two of the three previous months. The trade group said supply managers had wait-and-see attitudes toward business activities, pending the presidential election and concerns about tariffs. They generally expected business to be flat or gradually growing with stable supply chains but higher costs.
TuesdayThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed 2.5% in June to $73.1 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Exports rose faster than imports. The value of outgoing goods and services increased 1.5%, led by sales of commercial aircraft and industrial supplies such as oil and gas. Imports rose 0.6% from May, led by pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with a decline in oil and gas products. Through the first half of 2024, the trade gap expanded 5.6% from the year before with gains of 3.8% in exports and 4.2% in exports. Trade deficits detract from overall economic growth as measured by the gross domestic product.
WednesdayIn a sign of weakening consumer spending, outstanding credit card debt receded in June. The Federal Reserve reported a 1.5% decline in the annual rate of revolving consumer debt outstanding, the second decrease in three months after 36 straight months of gains. The pace of total consumer debt rose 2.1% from May, including a 3.4% increase in non-revolving debt – mostly car financing and student loans. With nearly 70% of U.S. economic growth relying on consumer spending, the drop in credit card debt suggests a lower commitment to buying. Credit card debt grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2024, the slowest growth since the beginning of 2021.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose to its highest level in 13 months, up for the fourth week in a row and the eighth time in nine weeks. The indicator of employer willingness to let workers go stayed 34% below the all-time average, according to Labor Department data. The level was 15% above where it was just before the 2020 COVID pandemic. The total number of claims rose 1.2% from the week before to nearly 2 million, which was up 5.8% from the same time last year.
FridayNo major releases
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 16745, down 31 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5344, down 2 points or 0.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39498, down 239 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.94%, down 0.15 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Dave Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 29-Aug. 2, 2024)Significant economic indicators & reportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayThe year-to-year change in residential prices slowed in May but continued to outpace inflation overall. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 5.9% from the year before, compared to a 6.4% gain in April. Month to month, seasonally adjusted prices increased 0.3%, the same as in April. Through the first five months of 2024, though, prices rose 4.1%, the fastest pace in two years. A spokesperson for S&P suggested that home buyers who are waiting for mortgage rates to drop are playing a costly game.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose slightly in July, though it stayed in a narrow weak range in which it has hovered for two years. The business research group said consumer improved their expectations while marginally lowering their opinions of current conditions. Prices, interest rates and uncertainty continued to cloud consumers’ confidence. Expectations remained at a level associated with economic recession.
Employers’ demand for workers eased slightly in June, with job openings falling to the narrowest gap with the unemployment level in three years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings fell below 8.2 million, down from a peak of 12 million in 2022 yet still above the 7 million registered just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Employers hired the fewest number of workers since April 2020. And the number of workers quitting their jobs was the lowest since February 2021, suggesting lower confidence in finding new work.
WednesdayContending that larger inventories are beginning to help the housing market, the National Association of Realtors reported its pending home sales index rose by 4.8% in June. The trade group’s chief economist credited a gradual increase in the number of houses for sale and added, “Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position.” Contract signings still lagged 2.6% behind the June 2023 index.
ThursdayWorker productivity increased at a solid 2.3% annual rate in the second quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The gain came on 3.3% higher output with workers putting in 1% more hours. Year to year, productivity rose 2.7%. Unit labor costs rose at a 0.9% annual rate and rose 0.5% from the year before. In the current business cycle, which began at the end of 2019, productivity has been growing at a 1.6% annual pace, compared to a 1.5% rate during the previous cycle, which started in 2007. The average productivity rate since 1947 is 2.1%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seventh time in eight weeks, reaching its highest level in more than a year. Labor Department data shows that the measure of employers’ willingness to let go of workers was 35% below the all-time average. It was 14% higher than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 1.6% from the week before but up 4.2% from the same time last year.
The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the fourth month in a row and the 20th time in 21 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed the weakest signs of the industry since November. In issuing the report, the ISM said, “Demand was weak again, output declined, and inputs stayed generally accommodative.”
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined in June for the second month in a row, dipping 0.3% from the seasonally adjusted annual pace in May. Housing, which accounted for 44% of all construction spending, pulled back 0.4%, led by a downturn in single-family residences. Year to year, total construction spending was 6% ahead of the June 2023 pace. Spending on residential building – again led by single-family structures – rose 7% from the year before. n increased 80% from June 2022.
FridayU.S. employers added 114,000 jobs in July, according to the employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Next to April, it was the fewest jobs added in 43 consecutive months of gains as signs of a weaker labor market appeared. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the U-6 underemployment rate reached 7.8%, both the highest since October 2021 and higher than their levels just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment in temporary help services – often a harbinger of job conditions – hit its lowest level in 23 years.
A deep drop in demand for commercial aircraft and parts sank factory orders in June. The Commerce Department reported that total orders declined 3.3% from May and were down 0.1% from June 2023. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.1% for the month and were up 1.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.9% from May and were up 0.3% from June 2023.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 16776, down 582 points or 3.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5346, down 113 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39735, down 855 points or 2.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.80%, down 0.40 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Steve Giles
Kendall Bauer
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 22-26, 2024)Significant economic indicators & reportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayThe National Association of Realtors reported continued declines in existing home sales in June but said conditions are slowly shifting to a buyers’ market. The median sales price hit a record high for the second month in a row, reaching $426,900. The trade group said the annual rate of sales slipped 5.4% from May to under 3.9 million houses. Inventory rose to a supply of 4.1 months’ worth at current sales rates – the highest since May 2020. The Realtors said the higher inventory has meant sellers are starting to receive fewer bids, and more buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals.
WednesdayThe annual rate of new home sales fell in June, dropping to the slowest pace since November. The pace was down 13% from the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic four years ago. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of unsold new houses rose to the highest rate since October 2022. The median price of new houses was $417,300, nearly the same as the year before.
ThursdayU.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2024, exceeding analyst expectations. According to an advance report on gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.8% from the first three months of the year, doubling the 1.4% pace in the first quarter. Faster growth was attributed to increased consumer spending and businesses investing more in their operations and building inventory. The PCE inflation index rose 2.6% from the second quarter of 2023, the same pace as in the first quarter and the lowest in three years.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the sixth time in seven weeks, suggesting a marginally weaker labor market. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average was still 35% below the 57-year average, but it was up 13% from just before the pandemic. In the latest week, nearly 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, up 8% from the week before and up 3% the same time last year.
Manufacturing demand declined in June for the first time in five months, with durable goods orders plummeting 6.6% from May. A steep fall in orders for commercial aircraft accounted for much of the setback. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%. Compared to June 2023, total orders were down 2% but rose 1.3% excluding transportation. The Commerce Department reported that core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 1% from May and increased 0.3% from June 2023.
FridayThe Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending – which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP – rose 0.3% in June, down from a 0.4% gain in May. Spending outpaced personal income, which rose 0.2% in June. Adjusting for inflation, spending rose 0.2%, led by consumption of services, particularly international travel. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 2.5% from June 2023, tied with February for the lowest inflation rate since early 2021. Two years ago, the PCE index reached a four-decade high of 7.1%.
Often a pre-cursor to spending, consumer sentiment sank a little more in July. The University of Michigan said its survey-based index declined insignificantly from June and has been in a holding pattern. While high prices are dampening the mood of consumers, election uncertainty could generate more volatility. For the second month in a row, consumers’ expectations for inflation dropped.
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17358, down 369 points or 2.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5459, down 46 points or 0.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40589, up 302 points or 0.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.20%, down 0.04 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Dave Sandstrom
Tom Pappenfus
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (July 15-19, 2024)Significant economic indicators & reportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayA key measure of consumer spending held steady in June, even as analysts expected it to decline. Retail sales were unchanged from May, the Commerce Department reported. Of 13 categories of retailers, 10 had higher sales, including online vendors, home-and-garden centers and restaurants and bars. Decliners for the month were led by car dealers and gas stations, where lower prices affected revenue. Not counting cars and gas, retail sales increased 0.8% in June.
WednesdayThe U.S. housing market remained weaker in June than it was two years ago, when the Federal Reserve Board began raising interest rates. The Commerce Department reported that the annual pace for both housing starts and building permits picked up slightly from May but only because of increased activity around residential buildings with five or more units. Single-family housing permits and new construction continued to lag behind their pace in mid-2022 and hover near or below where they were just before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Federal Reserve said industrial production rose in June for the second month in a row. Output from manufacturing, mining and utilities added 0.6% and was up 1.6% from June 2023. The gains were broadly based across industries except for declines from makers of business equipment and construction supplies. Meantime, industrial capacity usage – which can indicate future inflation pressure – rose to 78.8%, its highest level in nine months but still comfortably below its 50-year average for the 19th consecutive month.
ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth time in six weeks, the Labor Department reported. The measure of employers’ plans to let workers go was 36% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. It was up 12% from its mark just before the pandemic. In the latest week, total claims dropped 1.4% to 1.8 million, which was up 4% from the same time last year.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators slipped 0.2% in June. The gauge from the business research group fell 1.9% in the first half of 2024, an improvement from a decline of 2.4% in the second half of 2023. The group blamed weak consumer expectations, factory orders, interest rate spread and jobless claims for the June decline. It forecast a growth rate of 1% for the U.S. economy in the third quarter.
FridayNo major announcements
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 17727, down 672 points or 3.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5505, down 110 points or 2.0% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40287, up 287 points or 0.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.24%, up 0.05 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Steve Giles
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Midyear investment strategiesHalfway through 2024, Landaas & Company advisors devote a Money Talk Podcast to offer advice and considerations to help long-term investors keep on track. In some cases, their discussions suggest how to get a jump start on year-end financial moves.
From the Money Talk archives, here’s additional insight and links:
Portfolio adjustmentsWhen Should I …rebalance my portfolio? by Art Rothschild *Investor upsides as interest rates rise*, a Money Talk Video with Kendall Bauer *Beginners Guide to Asset Allocation, Diversification and Rebalancing,* from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Estate planningA testament to update before you’re late, by Joel DresangInevitable as taxes, yet rarely planned for, by Joel DresangEstate Planning FAQs, American Bar AssociationEstate Planning: Power of Attorney, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
Tax planningMoney Talk Giving Podcast
Retirement investing: Consider Roth, by Joel Dresang
Deciding which retirement accounts to tap, a Money Talk Video with Dave Sandstrom
IRAs 101: What you need to know, from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18398, up 45 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5614, up 47 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 40001, up 625 points or 1.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.19%, down 0.08 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Adam Baley
Dave Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Investing by countryIn honor of U.S. Independence Day, Landaas & Company investment advisors devote this podcast to geographical considerations of investing. Their discussion includes an explanation of home-country bias, which tends to steer investors toward owning stakes in companies according to where they live.
Learn more
- Over there: Investing in a global economy, a Money Talk Video with Kyle Tetting
- International Investing, from the Securities and Exchange Commission
- How to Use International Stocks in Your Portfolios, by Morningstar
Market Closings for the Week* Nasdaq – 18353, up 664 points or 3.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5567, up 102 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39376, up 226 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.27%, up 0.01 point
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle Tetting
Art Rothschild
Steve Giles
(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (June 24-28 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releases
TuesdayThe pace of increases in housing prices slowed a little in April while still setting a record high, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Prices in April rose 6.3% from April 2023, down from a 6.5% year-to-year increase in March. Seasonally adjusted, the index rose 0.5% from March, the same monthly gain as from February. Among 20 cities closely followed by the home price index, 13 set all-time highs in April. Housing prices have remained a sticking point for Federal Reserve efforts to slow down overall inflation.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index sank slightly in June as expectations remained low but overall stayed within a narrow range that has prevailed for much of the last two years. Optimism from labor conditions continued to outweigh concerns about inflation and other matters, the business research group reported. Survey results showed plans for home buying stayed near record lows. Vacation plans kept rising but remained below pre-pandemic levels.
WednesdayThe annual rate of new home sales sank 11% in May and was down 16% from the previous year. Since April 2022, just after the Fed started raising interest rates, only one month has had sales above the pre-pandemic level. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of new houses for sale was 9.3 months’ worth, up from 5.6 just before the pandemic and above the 6.1-month average since 1963. The median sales price of a new house declined 0.9% from May 2023 to $417,400.
ThursdayThe U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.4% in the first quarter, according to the last of three estimates of the gross domestic product. The rate was up from an earlier Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate of 1.3%, in part because imports – which weigh against economic growth – were lower. Consumer spending was weaker than initially reported, rising at a 1.5% annual rate instead of 2%. The overall 1.4% growth rate was down from a 3.4% pace in the final quarter of 2023 and was the slowest pace since back-to-back declines at the beginning of 2022.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the sixth time in seven weeks, reaching its highest level since last August. Labor Department figures show the moving average 35% below the 57-year average and 13% higher than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Close to 1.8 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 1% from the week before and up 3% from the year before.
Orders for durable goods rose 0.1% in May, tapering off from gains of 0.2% in April and 0.8% in March. The Commerce Department measure of manufacturing demand was up 0.1% from May 2023. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand fell 0.1% from April and was up 1.9% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, which indicate commercial investments, fell 0.6% for month, rose 0.9% from the year before.
Pending home sales sank 2.1% in May, according to an index from the National Association of Realtors. Demand for existing houses was nearly 7% below the index in May 2023. The trade group also noted increased housing inventory and said residential real estate prices should start stabilizing. The group forecast that traditional mortgage rates will level off at 6% for 2024 and 2025 and that sales should rise to 4.26 million houses this year, which would be about 4% higher than in 2023.
FridayInflation slowed in May amid subdued consumer spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation eased to 2.6% from the year before, down from a four-decade high of 7.1% two years ago. It remained above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditures index was unchanged from April. A core measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs edged up 0.1% in May and was also 2.6% above May 2023, its smallest 12-month gain since March 2021. Personal spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth, increased by 0.2% in May while personal income rose 0.5%.
A precursor to consumer spending, consumer sentiment, was statistically unchanged in June with slightly weaker feelings toward current conditions and brighter outlooks for the year ahead and longer. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey found attitudes still historically low, though 36% above their record trough in June 2022. Consumers expressed concerns of high prices and weakening incomes, but they also raised expectations amid prospected of softer interest rates.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 17733, up 43 points or 0.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5461, down 4 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39123, down 27 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.34%, up 0.09%
Advisors on this week’s podcastKyle Tetting
Adam Baley
Dave Sandstrom
(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
Week in Review (June 17-21, 2024Significant Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major reports
TuesdayThe Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.1% in May after falling 0.2% in April. By category, sales were mixed as eight of 13 retail groups gained, including sporting goods and hobby stores, online retailers and car dealers. Among the categories showing declines were gas stations, where lower prices affected sales results. Furniture stores and home-and-garden centers reported lower sales both for the month and compared to May 2023. Retail sales measure most of the consumer spending that accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.9% in May, the first gain in three months, according to the Federal Reserve. Increased output was led by a 0.9% advance in factory productions, which was broadly based, except for continued cuts in furniture making. Compared to the year before, total industrial production, including mining and utilities, was up 0.4%. Capacity utilization, considered a leading indicator of inflation, rose to 78.7% in May, the highest since November, but still below the long-term average for the 18th month in a row.
WednesdayMarkets closed in observance of Juneteenth Day
ThursdayThe annual pace of housing starts and building permits slowed in May to levels not seen since the COVID-19 recession. A joint report from the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development showed new construction down 5% from April’s pace while permits sank 4%. Both figures reached their lowest points since June 2020. Multi-family housing was especially slowed, as permits declined to their slightest pace since April 2020. At the same time, the number of houses under construction in May continued to hover near record heights, based on data going back to 1970.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued to rise, up for the second week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks. The Labor Department reported that the average level of new claims was at its highest point since August. Though still 36% below the 57-year average, the measure of employer reluctance to part with workers was 11% above its low just before the pandemic. More than 1.7 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 2% from the week before and up 3% from the same time last year.
FridayThe National Association of Realtors said existing home sales slipped again in May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million houses sold was down 0.7% from April’s pace and 2.8% below the year before. The trade association said rising inventory should eventually encourage sales while moderating price increases. It said the number of available houses rose to the equivalent of 3.7 months’ worth at current sales rates, compared to 3.5 months in April and 3.1 in May 2023. The median sales price rose 5.8% from May 2023 to $419,300.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5% in May, compared to a 0.6% decline in April. The business research group cited a drop in new orders, weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in building permits for the lower May index. Over the last six months, the index sank 2%, compared to a setback of 3.4% in the previous six months. The Conference Board forecast growth of less than 1% in the middle half of 2024.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 17689, No Change * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5465, up 33 points or 0.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 39150, up 560 points or 1.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.26%, up 0.04 point
The post Money Talk Podcast, Friday June 21, 2024 appeared first on Landaas & Company.
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Advisors on this week’s podcastKyle TettingAdam BaleyDave Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (June 17-21, 2024)Significant Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.1% in May after falling 0.2% in April. By category, sales were mixed as eight of 13 retail groups gained, including sporting goods and hobby stores, online retailers and car dealers. Among the categories showing declines were gas stations, where lower prices affected sales results. Furniture stores and home-and-garden centers reported lower sales both for the month and compared to May 2023. Retail sales measure most of the consumer spending that accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.9% in May, the first gain in three months, according to the Federal Reserve. Increased output was led by a 0.9% advance in factory productions, which was broadly based, except for continued cuts in furniture making. Compared to the year before, total industrial production, including mining and utilities, was up 0.4%. Capacity utilization, considered a leading indicator of inflation, rose to 78.7% in May, the highest since November, but still below the long-term average for the 18th month in a row.
Wednesday
Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth Day
Thursday
The annual pace of housing starts and building permits slowed in May to levels not seen since the COVID-19 recession. A joint report from the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development showed new construction down 5% from April’s pace while permits sank 4%. Both figures reached their lowest points since June 2020. Multi-family housing was especially slowed, as permits declined to their slightest pace since April 2020. At the same time, the number of houses under construction in May continued to hover near record heights, based on data going back to 1970.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued to rise, up for the second week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks. The Labor Department reported that the average level of new claims was at its highest point since August. Though still 36% below the 57-year average, the measure of employer reluctance to part with workers was 11% above its low just before the pandemic. More than 1.7 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 2% from the week before and up 3% from the same time last year.
Friday
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales slipped again in May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million houses sold was down 0.7% from April’s pace and 2.8% below the year before. The trade association said rising inventory should eventually encourage sales while moderating price increases. It said the number of available houses rose to the equivalent of 3.7 months’ worth at current sales rates, compared to 3.5 months in April and 3.1 in May 2023. The median sales price rose 5.8% from May 2023 to $419,300.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5% in May, compared to a 0.6% decline in April. The business research group cited a drop in new orders, weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in building permits for the lower May index. Over the last six months, the index sank 2%, compared to a setback of 3.4% in the previous six months. The Conference Board forecast growth of less than 1% in the middle half of 2024.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 17689, No Change
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5465, up 33 points or 0.6%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39150, up 560 points or 1.5%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.26%, up 0.04 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (June 10-14, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
No major reports
Wednesday
The broadest measure of inflation slowed for the second month in a row, suggesting progress in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control the cost of living. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.3% in the 12 months ended in May, down from a decades-high 9.1% in June 2022 but still well ahead of the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation made no change from April as gas prices declined 3.6% and shelter costs rose 0.4% for the fourth month in a row. Shelter costs were up 5.4% from the year before, the smallest gain in two years. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the so-called core CPI rose 3.4% from May 2023, the slimmest increase since April 2021.
Thursday
Lower gas prices also helped slow inflation on the wholesale level in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index declined 0.2% from April, falling for the second time in three months. Gas prices dropped 7%, accounting for about 60% of the drop in the cost of goods. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI was unchanged from April. Compared to 12 months earlier, wholesale inflation rose 2.2% in May, the first deceleration in the rate in four months. That compared to more than 11% in June 2022. Core PPI was up 3.2% from May 2023.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth time in six weeks to its highest level since September. Still, the indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 38% below its 57-year average. According to the Labor Department, total claims for jobless benefits reached nearly 1.7 million, up slightly from the week before and up 4.6% from the same time last year.
Friday
The University of Michigan reported no significant change in its consumer sentiment index from May. A preliminary June reading of the longstanding survey-based indicator showed optimism up 31% from historic lows two years ago, though still below average historically. Consumer expectations for inflation remained steady at 3.3% for the next year and 3.1% longer term. Respondents expressed slightly rising concerns about higher prices and limited incomes. Economists see consumers’ sentiment as a predictor of their spending, which generates two-thirds of U.S. economic growth.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 17689, up 556 points or 3.2%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5432, up 85 points or 1.6%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38589, down 210 points or 0.5%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.21%, down 0.22 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (June 3-7, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
The manufacturing sector shrank again in May. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index landed under 50 for the 18th time in 19 months, suggesting the industry was contracting. Reductions accelerated in new orders and production, although the employment component of the index rose after declining in April. The trade group said purchasing managers surveyed for the index were showing reluctance to invest in their business because of Federal Reserve interest rate policies as well as other conditions, such as suppliers’ commitments.
The pace of construction spending fell 0.1% in April, the second consecutive setback. The annual spending rate of nearly $2.1 trillion was up 10% from April 2023, the Commerce Department reported. Residential spending, which accounted for about 43% of the total, rose 0.1% from the March pace and was up 8% from the year before, including a 20% increase from April 2022 in spending on single-family housing. Construction expenses in the manufacturing sector rose 31% from the year before; public-sector spending was up 17% from April 2023.
Tuesday
U.S. employers posted fewer than 8.1 million job openings in April, the lowest demand for workers since February 2021. Want ads still outnumbered unemployed job seekers, but it was the narrowest gap in almost three years. Job postings were down from a record 12.2 million in mid-2022, when the Fed was raising interest rates to slow inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that overall levels of hiring and separations stayed about the same since March. The degree to which workers were quitting their jobs voluntarily – a sign of worker confidence in the hiring market – remained below the pre-pandemic level for the fifth month in a row.
Demand for manufactured goods picked up in April for the third month in a row. The Commerce Department said factory orders grew 0.7% from March and were up 1.1% from April 2023. Monthly gains were broadly distributed, although commercial air transportation orders declined 8%. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, increased by 0.4% in April and were up 2% from the same time last year.
Wednesday
The U.S. services industry grew in May after shrinking in April, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM services index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, suggested the largest sector of the economy expanded in May at the fastest pace since August. The trade group said orders and business activity improved while employment contracted for the fourth month in a row, though not as fast. The group said based on past relationships between the index and U.S. gross domestic product, the overall economy grew in May for the 17th consecutive month and at an annual rate of 1.6%.
Thursday
The U.S. trade deficit widened 8.7% to $74.6 billion in April. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. exports rose 0.8% from March, led by goods, especially pharmaceuticals. Imports grew 2.4%, led by cars. Through the first four months of 2024, the trade gap grew 2% from the year before. In that time, exports gained 3.2%, and imports rose 2.9%. Trade deficits count against gross domestic product, the main measure of the U.S. economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter. The rate was lowered from a preliminary estimate of 0.3%. Non-farm output rose at an annual pace of 0.9% in the first three months of the year while hours worked rose at a 0.6% rate. Since the first quarter of 2023, productivity climbed 2.9% – the most in three years. Since just before the pandemic, productivity has increased by an annual rate of 1.5%, equal to the pace in the previous business cycle, which began in 2007. Since 1947, productivity has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%.
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in five weeks and continued to suggest a tight hiring market. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go was 39% below its average since 1967, according to Labor Department data. Just under 1.7 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 1% from the week before but up 3% from the same time last year.
Friday
U.S. employers added 272,000 jobs in May, far stronger than analysts expected and above the 12-month average. The unemployment rate also rose, reaching 4% for the first time in three years, according to the May jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annual pace in wage inflation increased for the first time in four months, reaching 4.1% from May 2023. That’s down from 5.9% in March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started raising short-term interest rates to keep inflation from accelerating.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 17133, up 398 points or 2.4%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5347, up 70 points or 1.3%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38799, up 113 points or 0.3%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.43%, down .08%
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingKendall BauerJohn Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 27-31, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets and government closed for Memorial Day
Tuesday
Housing prices continued to accelerate in March, hitting more all-time highs, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index. Prices overall grew by 6.5% from their March 2023 level, the same increase as in February. Adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, the national index reached a record high for the ninth time in the last year. An analyst for the index described “widespread and sustained growth” for the housing sector.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in May for the first time in four months, exceeding analyst forecasts yet suggesting fears of recession. The business and research group said strong sentiment toward the labor market overall offset concerns about higher inflation and rising interest rates. Consumers younger than 35 and earning more than $100,000 a year were the most confident. A measure of expectations associated with recessions remained at a warning level for the fourth month in a row.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.3% in the first quarter. That was down from an initial estimate of 1.6% and the slowest rate for the gross domestic product since back-to-back declines to start 2022. In comparison, GDP grew at a 3.4% pace in the last quarter of 2023. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported consumer spending rose at a 2% rate in the first three months of 2024, down from an initial estimate of 2.5%. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of GDP. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose 3.3% in the first quarter, down from an initial estimate of 3.4%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, reaching its highest level since September. Still, the measure of employer reluctance to lose workers suggested a tight hiring market, staying 39% below the all-time average, which dates back to 1967. New Labor Department data showed 1.7 million Americans claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, unchanged from the week before and up 4.5% from the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 7.7% in April. The trade group’s index was down 7.4% from the year before. An economist for the association said high mortgage rates and record-high home prices chilled demand from home buyers. Inventory continued to rise in April, though, which the Realtors said should decelerate price increases. The group said anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve should further help affordability and spur sales.
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.2% in April, the slightest increase since January. Increased expenditures on services such as housing and health care were offset by declining outlays for goods. The slower spending came as personal income rose 0.3% from March. The personal savings rate remained at 3.6% of disposable income, less than half the rate entering the COVID-19 pandemic. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 2.7% from April 2023, the same as March. The Fed’s long-range target for inflation is 2%.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16735, down 186 points or 1.1%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5278, down 27 points or 0.5%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38686, down 383 points or 1.0%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.51%, up .04%
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Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 20-24, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
No major reports
Wednesday
The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 1.9% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million houses. The trade group blamed low inventory, high mortgage rates and elevated prices for slower sales, which were down nearly 2% from the April 2023 pace. Although inventories rose 9% from March and 16% from the year before, they represented a 3.5-month supply, below the 6-month level typically considered needed for sustained sales. The median sales price rose 5.7% from April 2023 to $407,600. The Realtors said continued increases in inventory should spur sales in coming months by keeping prices in more control.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the third week in a row to its highest level since early December. An indication of employer reluctance to let workers go, the moving average still suggested a tight hiring market, down 40% from its all-time average, according to Labor Department data. Barely 1.7 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 3.2% from the week before but up 4% from the year before.
The annual sales rate of new houses slowed in April, remaining below the pre-pandemic level for the 11th month in a row. The Commerce Department said the sales pace was 634,000, down nearly 5% from March and down almost 8% from the year before. The rate in the Midwest picked up to its highest level since June 2021. The supply of new houses for sale climbed to 9.1 months’ worth, the biggest since November 2022. The median price for a new house rose just under 4% from the year before to $433,500.
Friday
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 0.7% in April, the slightest of three consecutive gains. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders grew by 0.4%, led by automotive. Excluding defense orders, demand for manufacturing was unchanged from March. Compared to April 2023, overall orders rose 0.5%; excluding transportation, orders advanced 2.1%. A proxy for business investments rose 0.3% from March and was up 1.2% from April 2023.
The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index declined in May to its lowest level of the year. The survey-based index dropped as respondents expressed concerns about the job market and interest rates. Economists eye sentiment as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Despite the monthly setback, the sentiment index was up about 20% from the year before and 40% higher than its all-time low in mid-2022, when inflation reached a four-decade peak. The university said improved sentiment over the last couple of years reflected slower inflation.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16921, up 235 points or 1.4%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5305, up 1 points or 0.0%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39069, down 934 points or 2.3%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.47%, up .05%
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Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingTom PappenfusKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 13-17, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
Inflation on the wholesale level registered a 2.2% annual increase in April, the highest in 12 months. The Producer Price Index was down from as high as 11.2% in mid-2022, but stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2% long-term inflation target. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 0.5% from March, mostly because of higher prices for services, led by portfolio management fees, but also due to an increase in the cost of gasoline. The core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.4% for the month and was up 3.1% from April 2023.
Wednesday
Broad inflation slowed in April after stalling a couple of months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% from April 2023, still outpacing the Fed’s 2% target but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in mid-2022. Shelter costs and gas prices accounted for 70% of the monthly rise in the index. Excluding volatile costs for food and energy, the core CPI rose 3.6% from the same time last year. That was the slightest gain in three years.
Retail sales also slowed in April, according to a report by the Commerce Department. Advanced sales by retailers and food services were unchanged from March. Among 13 major categories, six increased sales from the month before, including gas stations, which benefited from higher prices, and bars and restaurants. Car dealers and online retailers were among the seven categories with lower sales. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.2% in April. Economists follow retail signs as an indication of consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, rising to its highest level since February. Still, the measure of employer reluctance to let workers go was 41% below the 57-year average, suggesting a continued tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell less than 1% from the week before to just under 1.8 million applications, which was nearly 5% higher than the year before,
Housing construction in April stayed in a relatively narrow band that has accompanied higher interest rates since mid-2022. A Commerce Department report on building permits and housing starts showed the indicators on par with levels just before the Great Recession in 2008. The number of houses under construction remained near record highs, especially for multi-family housing. Economists have blamed a lack of inventory for years of escalating housing prices.
The Federal Reserve said its industrial production index was unchanged in April, dipping to a slight decline from the year before. Lower output from manufacturers dragged down total production. Manufacturing retreated by 0.3% from its output in March and was down 0.5% from April 2023. The broad manufacturing drop-off was led by a 2% decline among automakers. Industry’s capacity utilization rate fell marginally to 78.4%, staying below the 40-year average of 79.6%. Manufacturers were using 76.9% of their facilities, down from a long-time average of 78.2%.
Friday
The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 0.6% in April, following a 0.3% decline in March. The business research group said the index contracted by 1.9% since October, which was shallower than the 3.5% decrease in the previous six months. Among the indicators contributing to the April slide were consumer confidence, yield spread, factory orders, building permits and stock prices. Although the Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession for the U.S. economy, it’s seeing annual growth slowing to less than one percent.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16686, up 355 points or 2.1%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5303, up 81 points or 1.5%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 40004, up 492 points or 1.2%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.42%, down .08%
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 6-10, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
The Federal Reserve said consumer credit card debt rose by an annual rate of 0.1% in March. The pace of so-called revolving credit debt slowed from 9.7% in February. Through the first quarter of 2024, revolving credit slowed to a 5.7% annual rate from 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 8.9% in the third quarter. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so economists keep an eye on credit card debt for signs of demand and confidence.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in five weeks, according to new data from the Labor Department. The measure of employer reluctance to let workers go was 41% below the 57-year average, suggesting continued tightness in the labor market. Total claims for benefits declined 3% in the latest week to just under 1.8 million, which was nearly 4% above the level the year before.
Friday
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment declined sharply from the end of April as both expectations and current assessments fell following three months of little movement. Though still 14% higher than the year before, the preliminary May reading of the sentiment index dropped 13% from April to its lowest point in six months. The university reported broad declines in consumer attitudes with worries of worsening inflation, unemployment and interest rates in the next year.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16341, up 185 points or 1.1%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5223, up 95 points or 1.9%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39513, up 837 points or 2.2%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.50%, no change
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildJohn Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 29-May 3, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Housing demand, buoyed by anticipated cuts in interest rates, resulted in continued gains in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose by 6.4% from the year before, the fastest growth since November 2022. The year-to-year gain accelerated for the third month in a row for every market in the 20-city composite index.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in April for the third month in a row, though it remained relatively steady with measures from the past two years. The business research group said consumer optimism toward current economic conditions outweighed concerns about the near-term future. Economists keep an eye on consumer confidence because consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Wednesday
Employers listed slightly fewer job openings in March, but longer comparisons show the hiring market loosening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings shrank to 8.5 million, the lowest in three years. Openings peaked at 12.2 million in 2022 and were below 7 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite fewer openings over the last couple of years, job posts continued to outpace the number of unemployed workers looking for a job by about 2 million. The number and rate of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of employment confidence – remained below the pre-pandemic level for the fifth month in a row.
The manufacturing sector continued contracting in April for the 17th time in 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of supply managers, showed the sector slipping from a slight expansion in March. While the index’s employment component contracted for the seventh month in a row, production grew, and other indicators suggested manufacturing demand is in the early stages of recovery.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined 0.2% in March while gaining nearly 10% from March 2023. Residential expenditures, accounting for 43% of all construction spending, slowed 0.7% from the seasonally adjusted annual rate in February and were 4.5 % ahead of the year-ago pace, driven mostly by single-family housing. Spending on manufacturing construction led private-sector gains. Government outlays for construction rose 0.8% for the month and 18% over the year, led by power structures and public safety facilities.
Thursday
The U.S. trade deficit shrank 0.1% in March to $69.4 billion as the value of exports dropped 2% while imports declined 1.6%. Leading the decline in exports were commercial aircraft, industrial products and soybeans. Cars, pharmaceutical preps and cell phones, led imports lower. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the first-quarter deficit widened 6.5% from the year before as exports rose 1.2% while imports gained 1.6%. Trade deficits detract from gross domestic product, the key measure of economic growth.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the second week in a row, reaching its lowest level in seven weeks, which was 43% below the all-time average. The Labor Department said 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before but up 3% from the same time last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, as the pace of output gained 1.3% while hours worked rose 1%. The 0.3% productivity rate compared to 3.2% in the last quarter of 2023. Hourly compensation rose 5% in the first quarter, placing employment costs at an annual rate of 4.7%. Since the end of 2019, productivity has grown at a 1.5% annual pace, down from the 2.1% average since 1947.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.4% in March, led by demand for commercial aircraft and automotive products. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, demand for manufactured goods rose 0.5%. Compared to March 2023, the dollar amount for total orders rose 0.3%, vs. a 0.7% gain excluding transportation. A proxy for business investments rose 0.6% from its year-earlier level.
Friday
U.S. employers added 175,000 jobs in April, the 40th consecutive boost. According to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the additional jobs were short of the 242,000 12-month average. Broad gains were led by health care and social assistance. Temporary help positions – sometimes a harbinger of overall employment movements – fell to their lowest level since December 2020. The average hourly wage rose 3.9% from the year before, the slowest increase since May 2021. A separate survey of households showed the unemployment rate bouncing back to 3.9%, where it was in February. Unemployment has ranged narrowly between 3.7% and 3.9% since August.
The service sector of the U.S. economy contracted in April for the first time since the end of 2022, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its index for the service sector showed a reversal even though new orders expanded for the 16th month in a row. Employment cuts accelerated for the third month. The ISM noted an overall slowdown expressed by supply managers interviewed, though responses varied by business. The group cited ongoing business concerns about inflation and geopolitical issues.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16151, up 288 points or 1.4%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5128, up 28 points or 0.5%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38676, up 436 points or 1.1%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.50%, down 0.17 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 22-26, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales rose 8.8% in March to 693,000 houses, the fastest pace since July. The rate was up 8% from the year before and on par with the level heading into the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of new houses for sale stayed in the ballpark of eight months’ worth of houses at the current sales rate. The median sales price dipped 1.9% from March 2023 to $430,700.
Wednesday
Manufacturing demand picked up in March, with durable goods orders rising 2.6% from February, the second consecutive monthly increase, according to the Commerce Department. Gains were led by contracts for commercial aircraft and automobiles. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose 0.2%. Since March 2023, all orders rose 0.3%; they were up 1.3% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, jumped 6% in March but were down 0.9% from March 2023.
Thursday
The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.6% in the first quarter, the slowest rate for the gross domestic product since back-to-back declines to start 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported consumer spending rose at a 2.5% rate in the first three months of 2024, down from 3.7% in the fourth quarter, when the overall economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was up 3% from the first quarter of 2023. And while economic slowdown has been an aim of the Federal Reserve Board’s efforts to cool inflation, the annual pace of price increases, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, rose to 3.4% in the first quarter from 1.8% in the fourth.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell after two weeks of no change. The average was 42% lower than the 57-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, just under 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 4% from the week before and up 3% from the same time last year. An indication of employers’ willingness to lose workers, the jobless claims continued to suggest a tight labor market.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.4% in March. The trade group’s index was up 0.1% from the year before, prompting an economist for the association to say that sales have been hovering near 30-year lows because of higher mortgage rates and insufficient inventory. Suggesting new construction would help increase supply, the group forecast a 9% rise in sales for 2024 followed by 13% growth in 2025. A year ago, the Realtors projected 2023 sales would be 10% higher than where they eventually ended, at 4.46 million houses. The year-ago forecast called for a 15% increase in 2024.
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.8% in March, outpacing a 0.5% gain in personal income. Accounting for about two-thirds of economic activity, the spending was another sign of continued economic growth. Meantime, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge showed the pace in price increases remained above the long-term target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.7% from March 2023, up from 2.5% in February, though down from a four-decade high of 7.1% in mid-2022.
Often a pre-cursor to spending, consumer sentiment, declined insignificantly in April, down 2.8% from March but up 21% from the year before. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey showed consumers at a plateau, putting expectations on pause pending the November presidential election. Researchers said geopolitical conflicts weren’t weighing on consumers and their expectations for inflation ticked up slightly.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15928, up 646 points or 4.2%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5100, up 133 points or 2.7%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38240, up 253 points or 0.7%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.67%, up 0.05 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 15-19, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsNo major announcements
Monday
In a further sign of economic resilience, consumers continued spending at stores in March with retail sales advancing 0.7% from February. The Commerce Department reported that 8 of 13 major categories had sales increases in March, including a 2.7% gain for online retailers and a 2.1% rise for gas stations, where sales increased in part because of higher prices. Sales at car dealers declined 1.1%. Furniture stores, appliance centers and sporting goods retailers also suffered setbacks. Sales at bars and restaurants increased by 0.4%, suggesting consumers remain comfortable spending. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.3%, a second consecutive gain.
Tuesday
The U.S. housing market continued to suggest weakness in March as the pace for both housing starts and building permits stayed below pre-pandemic levels. Figures from the Commerce Department showed new construction about 25% below its pace in mid-2022. The pace of housing permits, an indicator of commitments to future homebuilding, also continued to hover lower following interest rate boosts by the Federal Reserve two years ago. But both permits and starts remained at levels on par with 2007, before the Great Recession. Meantime, data showed that the rate of houses under construction stayed near record highs, with completions around their fastest pace in 17 years.
Increased automotive manufacturing in March helped boost U.S. industrial production by 0.4% in March. The Federal Reserve reported that industrial output rose at the same pace as in February and was unchanged from the year before. Through the first quarter of 2024, industrial production declined at a 1.8% annual rate led by a 12% drop in mining output. The same report showed the capacity utilization rate, a measure of potential inflation pressure, rising for the second month in a row, though it stayed below the long-time average.
Wednesday
No major announcements
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was unchanged for the second week in a row, staying 41% under the long-term average, dating to 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go continued to indicate a tight labor market. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell to 1.9 million in the latest week, down less than 1% from the week before, though up nearly 7% from the year before.
The annual pace of existing home sales sank 4.3% in March, its first setback in four months, dropping 3.7% behind its year-ago rate. The National Association of Realtors said sales have been stagnating because of high interest rates and ongoing low supplies of inventory. The trade group said the median sales price rose 4.8% from the March 2023 to $393,500, the ninth consecutive increase.
The Conference Board reported that its index of leading economic indicators declined 0.3% in March, after a slight gain in February. The business research group said the six-month movement of its index contracted at a slower pace. It suggested the U.S. economic outlook was “fragile – even if not recessionary.” Among the challenges ahead, according to the group, are rising consumer debt, higher interest rates and stubbornly elevated inflation rates.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15282, down 893 points or 5.5%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4967, down 156 points or 3.0%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 37986, up 3 points or 0.0%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.62%, up 0.12 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 8-12, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
Overall inflation continued to stall in March, staying above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose to a 3.5% year-to-year rate, bouncing higher for the second month in a row after falling from as high as 9.1% in June 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said increased costs for shelter, gasoline and car insurance contributed to faster inflation, keeping it above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. A core measure of CPI, which excluded volatile food and energy prices, stayed at a year-to-year rate of 3.8% for the second month in a row.
Thursday
Inflation on the wholesale level rose in March with the Producer Price Index gaining 0.2%, only one-third of the advance in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 2.1% from March 2023, the fastest 12-month pace in 11 months. Costs for services increased while goods prices declined overall, led by gasoline. The core Producer Price Index – excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services – rose 0.2% from February and was up 2.8% from the year before, on par with the yearly rate since May.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dipped for the second time in three weeks, reaching 42% below the long-term average since 1967. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go was 3% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to data from the Labor Department. Altogether, just under 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 3.6% from the week before but up 5% from the same time last year.
Friday
A preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment shows Americans have registered little change since January. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan has been midway between an all-time low in mid-2022 and the optimism level just before the pandemic four years ago. Surveys showed a slight increase in expectations for inflation, which the university said might suggest some frustration with an apparent stalling in the slowdown of inflation.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16175, down 73 points or 0.5%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5123, down 81 points or 1.6%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 37984, down 920 points or 2.4%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.50%, up 0.12 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleySteve Giles(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 1-5, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
U.S. factories began emerging from a slump in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index suggested the sector expanded for the first time since September 2022 with increased demand and stronger output. The ISM said the turnaround was in an early stage and uneven, with 30% of the firms surveyed still contracting, vs. 40% in February. Based on past trends, the ISM said, the index suggested the gross domestic product was growing at a 2.2% annual rate.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined by 0.3% in February, the second monthly setback after one year of increases. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of spending neared $2.1 trillion. Residential construction spending, which makes up about 44% of the total, rose 0.7% from January despite a drop in multi-family housing. Government spending, which accounts for 23% of the total, declined 1.2%. Since February 2023, total expenditures rose 10.7% with residential up 6.5% and manufacturing up 32%.
Tuesday
Employers posted marginally more job openings in February, continuing to reflect a labor market in which demand outpaces supply. Postings were just under 8.8 million, down from a record 12.2 million nearly two years ago and still above the 7 million level just before the COVID pandemic. Other signs of a stronger employment market: hirings, separations – including layoffs, firings and voluntary quits – changed little from January.
The Commerce Department reported a 1.4% gain in manufacturing orders in February, the first advance in three months. Demand for commercial aircraft led the increase. Excluding the volatile transportation category, factory orders rose 1.1% from January. Compared to February 2023, total orders were up 1% and up 1.4% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.7% for the month and were up 1.4% from the year before.
Wednesday
The U.S. services sector expanded in March, though at a slower rate, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index indicated the 15th month in a row of growth. Based on surveys with purchasing managers, the index showed orders for services cooling while hiring contracted. Logistics and supply chains continued to improve following disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic.
Thursday
The U.S. trade deficit grew in February for the third month in a row and to its widest gap in 10 months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deficit expanded by 1.9% from January to $68.9 billion. The value of exports rose by 2.3%, led by crude oil, aircraft, soybeans and autos. Imports increased by 2.2%, led by cell phones, travel services, pharmaceuticals and autos. Since February 2023, the gap widened by 2.8% with exports growing 1.8% and imports rising 0.8%. The trade deficit detracts from economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product.
The Labor Department reported that the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third time in four weeks. Average claims remained 42% below the 57-year average, continuing to reflect employer reluctance to let workers go in an historically tight labor market. Total claims were little changed from the week before at 2 million, which was 7% higher than at the same time last year.
Friday
U.S. employers continued to add jobs in March – for the 39th month in a row and at a swifter pace. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 303,000 more jobs than February, up from the six-month average of 231,000. The leisure and hospitality industry finally recovered to its February 2020 pre-pandemic employment level. And average hourly wages rose 4.1% from the year before, the smallest gain since June 2021, down from a recent peak of 5.9% two years ago. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, within the narrow range of rates since August. Unemployment has been 4% or lower since the end of 2021, the longest streak since 1965 to 1970.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16249, down 131 points or 0.8%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5204, down 50 points or 1.0%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38904, down 903 points or 2.3%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.38%, up 0.17 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromTom Pappenfus(with Jason Scuglilk, Joel Dresang)
Week in Review (March 25-29)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
The annual rate of new home sales declined slightly in February but stayed ahead of the year-ago pace, the Commerce Department reported. The sales rate of 662,000 new houses was below the pre-COVID pace for the seventh month in a row. Inventories rose marginally, and the median sales price – $400,500 – dropped almost 8% from February 2023.
Tuesday
Demand for long-lasting manufactured goods rose in February for the first time in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Orders for durable goods were up 1.4% from January and 1.8% ahead of orders in February 2023. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand increased 0.5% from January and was up 3.2% from the year before. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, also advanced.
The annual gain in housing prices accelerated to 6% in January, the seventh consecutive increase. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, broad-based price gains continued despite the head winds of higher borrowing costs. The year-to-year increase in January was the highest since November 2022.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index was essentially unchanged in March, with survey respondents improving their views of current conditions while taking a dimmer view of the future. The business research group offered some mixed signals, reporting that people continued to fret over higher prices while their expectations for inflation remained near four-year lows. Consumers’ expectations for recession continued to weaken at the same time an index reading associated with recession worsened.
Wednesday
No significant releases
Thursday
The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was up from 3.2% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 3.3%, instead of the earlier estimate of 3%. Economic growth also rose faster from more commercial investments than initially estimated.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in three weeks to reach 42% below the 57-year average. The indicator from the Labor Department suggested employers remained reluctant to let workers go. The same report showed 2 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 3% from the week before and up 7% from its level the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose nearly 2% in February, though it was down 7% from the year earlier. The trade group said sales contracts in the Northeast and West fell for the month because housing prices were rising faster than incomes. Nationwide, the group predicted increasing inventory because of more newly built structures on the market and because of pent-up desires by many homeowners to move.
The University of Michigan’s longstanding measure of consumer sentiment rose marginally in March, staying about midway between its pre-pandemic level and its record low in 2022. The survey-based index suggested consumers were feeling better about their personal finances because of increased confidence that inflation was easing. The university said it expected sentiment to be on hold until later in the election season.
Friday
By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, rose 0.8% in February, the biggest jump in 13 months. Spending outpaced the 0.3% gain in personal income for February, resulting in a drop in the personal saving rate to 3.6% of disposable income from 4.1% in January. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported that the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge ticked up to a one-year rate of 2. 5%, slightly above the 2.4% mark reached in January, which was the lowest in nearly three years. Inflation continued to track faster than the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, but it was down from a four-decade high of 7.1% in mid-2022.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16379, down 49 points or 0.3%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5254, up 20 points or 0.4%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39807, up 331 points or 0.8%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.21%, down 0.01 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildKendall Bauer(with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang)Week in Review (March 18-22, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The pace of housing starts rose 11% in February, and it was up 6% from the year before, the Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported. Permits for new housing also increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, especially for single-family residences. Amid longstanding low inventories of housing units, the rate at which new houses are being completed is finally reaching levels not seen since before the Great Recession. Also, housing under construction has been hovering at record paces, according to data going back to 1970.
Wednesday
No major announcements
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but stayed 42% below the 57-year average, according to new data from the Labor Department. The moving average, an indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go, continued to suggest strength in the labor market. Total claims rose 0.2% from the week before to 1.8 million, which was up 8% from the same time in 2023.
The annual rate of existing home sales rose 9.5% to nearly 4.4 million in February, which was still 3% slower than the year before. The National Association of Realtors said demand for housing continued to be strong while inventory improved nearly 6% from January. Still, supply remained historically record low, with 2.9 months’ worth of houses available at February’s sales rate. The median sales price was $384,500, up almost 6% from the year before, the eight increase in a row.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in February, its first gain in two years, led by increases in factory hours, stock prices and residential construction. The business research group said its index declined 2.6% since August, an improvement from a 3.8% decline in the previous six months. The group also warned that higher interest rates and rising consumer debt posed threats to continued personal spending, which drives about two-thirds of U.S. economic growth.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16429, up 456 points or 2.9%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5234, up 117 points or 2.3%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39475, up 761 points or 2.0%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.22%, down 0.09 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (March 11-15, 2024)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The broadest measure of inflation nudged up narrowly in February, reinforcing sentiment that it’s too soon for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% from February 2023, unadjusted for inflation. That was up from 3.1% in January but down from a four-decade high of 9.1% in 2022. Higher prices for gasoline and shelter accounted for 60% of the CPI’s one-month gain of 0.4%, which was the highest since September. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 3.8% from the year before, the smallest 12-month rise in almost three years.
Wednesday
No major announcements
Thursday
Wholesale inflation ticked up in February, led by higher energy prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.6% from January, the largest advance since August. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.4%, down from a 0.6% increase in January. Year to year, the headline PPI rose 1.6% in February, the highest rate in five months.
The Commerce Department said retail sales gained 0.6% in February, only the second gain in five months, but another sign that consumers are keeping the economy growing. Car dealers, gas stations, home-and-garden centers and appliance stores led the list of retailers reviving sales from a 1.1% decline in January. The sales represent most of the consumer spending that accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales advanced in February for the first time in five months.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, dipping 43% below the 57-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 2.1 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 1% from the week before and up 7.2% from the year before.
Friday
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in February after weather-related declines January. The gain was the first in three months, according to the Federal Reserve. Compared to the year before, output was down 0.2%. Manufacturing production advanced 0.8% from January and was down 0.7% from February 2023. Capacity utilization, considered a leading indicator of inflation, remained at 78.3% in February, below the long-term average for the 10th month in a row.
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment essentially was on hold pending the November election. The preliminary measure of expectations in March was little changed from February, putting it midway between historic lows during the inflation peaks of 2022 and the level of sentiment just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists rely on sentiment as an indicator of consumers’ appetite for spending.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15973, down 112 points or 0.7%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5117, down 7 points or 0.1%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38715, down 8 points or 0.0%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.30%, up 0.22 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildAdam Baley(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (March 4-8, 2024)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
A drop in commercial aircraft demand sent U.S. factory orders lower in January for the third time in four months. The Commerce Department said orders overall declined 3.6% from December and were 1.6% below their level the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand fell 0.8% both for the month and compared with January 2023. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.9% for the month and were up 2.5% from the year before.
The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 14th month in a row, though at a slightly slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management said faster supplier deliveries and a contraction in hiring slowed businesses in February. The ISM’s survey of supply managers found overall satisfaction in the state of business conditions, although concerns linger over inflation, the labor market and geopolitical conflicts.
Wednesday
U.S. employers posted 8.9 million job openings in January, down marginally from December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply. Openings eclipsed 12 million in March 2022 and have trended lower ever since. They were below 7 million just prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures of hiring and dismissals showed little change, but voluntary quitting – an indication of worker confidence – was below pre-COVID levels for the third month in a row.
Thursday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 3.2% in the fourth quarter, unchanged from an earlier estimate. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 3.5% in the last four months of the year while hours worked rose at a 0.3% pace. Productivity rose 2.6% over the last four quarters. Average annual productivity rose 1.3% for 2023, compared to an average 2.1% since 1948.
The U.S. trade deficit widened by 5.1% to $67.4 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. During the month, exports rose by 0.1%, led by autos and consumer goods. Imports rose by 1.1%, led by cars, crude oil and cell phones. Compared to January 2023, the trade gap narrowed by 4.1% as exports declined 0.4% and imports fell 1.2%. Economists consider trade deficits a detraction from overall economic growth.
The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dropped for the third week in a row. It remained 42% below its average since 1967 and was 2% above its level just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Total claims for the latest week declined marginally from the week before to 2.1 million. That was 10.5% above the mark from the year before.
The Federal Reserve said credit card debt rose at an annual pace of 7.6% in January, up from 2.4% in December, but a slowdown from the third and fourth quarters. The overall consumer debt outstanding, including student loans and car financing, increased at a 4.7% annualized rate. Measured year to year, credit card debt rose less than 2% from January 2023. Such debt has gone up every month but one in nearly three years. Sustained use of credit cards suggests consumers continued spending at higher levels despite Fed interest rate increases aimed at weakening demand to help lower inflation.
Friday
Employers added 275,000 jobs in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, its highest level in three years. The bureau’s monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, showed the pace of hiring rise above the 12-month average, with particular strength in health care, construction and bars and restaurants. The average hourly wage increased 0.1% from January, the smallest boost in two years. Compared to February 2023, wages rose 4.3%.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16085, down 190 points or 1.2%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5124, down 13 points or 0.3%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38723, down 365 points or 0.9%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.09%, down 0.09 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Feb. 26-March 1, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
While a relatively small part of the total housing market, new home sales showed signs of improvement in January. The C0mmerce Department said the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales reached 661,000 units in January, up 1.5% from December and 1.8% ahead of the year-ago pace. As opposed to new houses, the annual sales rate of existing houses was 4 million. Inventories reached 8.3 months’ worth of new houses for sale, remaining above the pace just before the pandemic and well ahead of the average of 6.6 months’ since 1963.
Tuesday
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 6.1% in January, the biggest decline in the volatile indicator since a 19.3% drop in April 2020. An expected plunge in commercial aircraft orders accounted for the bulk of the January setback. Excluding the transportation industry, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was down just 0.3% from December and was up 1.8% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% from December but were 0.2% below January 2023.
Housing prices continued to accelerate in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the index rose 5.5%, as opposed to a 5% increase in November. It was the seventh consecutive gain. An analyst for S&P described broad-based pricing gains, with all composite city indexes advancing for the first time in 2023. Despite increased mortgage rates over the past year, S&P reported solid and steady growth in housing prices.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in February for the first time in four months. Consumers said they worried less about inflations, although it remained their chief concern. They registered greater unease about the labor market and political environment. The business research group characterized the slip in confidence as broadly based, with drops both in current assessments and expectations. Since consumer spending drives about two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, confidence suggests how willing consumers are to fuel the economy.
Wednesday
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% annual pace in the fourth quarter, slightly slower than initially estimated, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Expansion of the gross domestic product was down from the previous report of 3.3% growth, which was down from 4.9% in the third quarter. The government said the updated figures showed less inventory buildup than previously estimated, partly offset by a faster pace of consumer spending. Consumer expenditures rose at an annual rate of 3% in the fourth quarter, compared to the initial report of 2.8%.
Thursday
The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation dipped to its lowest level in nearly three years, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index rose 2.4% from January 2023 to January 2024, down from a 2.6% increase in December and a four-decade high of 7.1% in June 2022. The rate remained above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. The report also showed consumer spending slowing in January even as personal income accelerated, led by a 3.2% increase in Social Security benefits.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the second week in a row, falling to the lowest level in four weeks and 42% below the 57-year average, signifying the historically strong job market. The Labor Department reported that total jobless claims declined 2% in the latest week to 2.1 million, up more than 8% from the year before.
Commitments to home ownership slipped in January, according to the pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said demand dropped 4.9% from December and was 8.8% lower than in January 2023 – despite a solid job market and record wealth due to higher stocks prices and home values. The Realtors cited steeper mortgage rates for increased reluctance among home buyers. Although rates have receded from around 8% in November, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan has been just under 7% recently, compared to under 4% two years ago.
Friday
The manufacturing sector contracted for the 16th month in a row in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index showed manufacturers easing up on production amid slower demand. Hiring receded for the fifth month in a row, and at a steeper pace. Based on past experience, the ISM said, its index suggested the U.S. economy is growing at a 1.5% annual rate.
The annual pace of construction spending fell slightly in January, dropping for the first time since the end of 2022. The rate was still up nearly 12% from its level in January 2023. Residential construction spending, which made up 43% of the total, rose marginally from December and was 12.5% ahead of its year-ago pace. The amount manufacturing spent on construction rose more than 36% since January 2023.
Consumers in the U.S. expected further declines in inflation rates while also seeing the overall economy hold steady, the University of Michigan reported. The university’s longstanding consumer sentiment survey fell slightly in February, but most of its components were near three-year highs after hitting an all-time low in mid-2022. The overall index was about 8% below the 46-year average.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 16275, up 278 points or 1.7%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5137, up 48 points or 0.9%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39087, down 44 points or 0.1%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.18%, down 0.08 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter February edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Feb. 19-23, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets closed for Presidents Day
Tuesday
The Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession for 2024 but says it expects next to no growth in the U.S. economy in the middle half of the year. The business research group said its index of leading economic indicators declined by 0.4% in January, double the dip in December. But the latest six-month read of the index fell 3%, compared to a decline of 4.1% in the prior six months. Also – for the first time in two years – more than half of the index’s components were positive for the six-month period.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the first time in four weeks, remaining 41% below the 57-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Nearly 2.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 0.5% from the week before and up 9.6% from the same time in 2023.
The National Association of Realtors heralded a rise in existing home sales in January as the beginning of a comeback for housing. The annual rate of unit sales rose 3.1% from the pace in December with a 2% increase in inventory and the seventh consecutive year-to-year gain in prices. Home sales ended 2023 at the lowest level in about three decades, but mortgage rates have declined since peaking in October. The supply of houses for sale remained below their level in January 2023. The median sale price was the highest ever for January: $379,100.
Friday
No major releases
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15997, up 221 points or 1.4%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5089, up 83 points or 1.7%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 39132, up 504 points or 1.3%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.26%, down 0.04 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowAdam BaleyDave Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Feb. 12-16, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The pace of inflation continued to ease in January, though the decline was slowing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% from January 2023. The rate was still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%, but it was the lowest rate since March 2021 and down from a 41-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. Shelter costs accounted for two-thirds of the 0.3% increase in the index from December, the biggest monthly gain since September. A 3.3% decline in the price of gasoline helped offset higher housing costs. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 3.9% from the year before, the lowest since May 2021.
Wednesday
No major announcements
Thursday
Harsh weather and a falloff from holiday shopping helped lower retail sales in January. The value of goods and services sold dropped 0.8% from December as nine of 13 retailer categories posted lower sales, the Commerce Department reported. In particular, car dealers and home-and-garden stores had fewer customers as winter storms struck various region. Sales at gas stations declined because of lower prices. Smoothing out some of the one-offs, the latest three months showed retail sales up 0.1% from the preceding three-month period. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales declined by 1.1% in January, the third setback in four months.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production dipped in January. The Fed cited winter storms as deterrents for both the manufacturing and mining sectors. Output for utilities expanded as a result of the extraordinary winter conditions. Lower demand overall meant industries’ capacity utilization shrank in January, down to 78.5%, the lowest in more than two years and well below the 50-year average of 79.6%. High capacity rates can indicate rising inflation.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row to the highest point since early December. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average stayed 40% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims dropped 2.4% from the week before to 2.1 million, which was up 10.6% from the same time in 2023.
Friday
Inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.3% in January, reversing a slight decline in December. Prices for goods sagged, especially for food and energy items, partly offsetting gains in service costs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index increased 0.9% from the year before, down from a peak of 11.7% in March 2022. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.6% from December, the most in a year. The core was up 2.6% from January 2023.
The Commerce Department showed monthly weakening in housing in January, as the annual rate of building permits and housing starts trended lower, but remained at or above pre-pandemic levels. Indicators were stronger for single-family houses, which made up 75% of starts and 69% of permits. Single-family permits, which indicate plans for future construction, were 36% higher than the year before and the highest level in nearly two years. The annual rate of houses under construction hovered near record levels dating back to 1970.
The University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly in February, strengthening an upward trend built on reassurance from slowing inflation. The survey-based indicator was up about 30% from November, though still 6% below its long-term average, dating back to 1978. Economists see consumer confidence as a precursor to consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15776, down 215 points or 1.3%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5006, down 21 points or 0.4%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38628, down 43 points or 0.1%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.30%, up 0.11 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter February edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang)Week in Review (Feb. 5-9, 2024)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
The largest segment of the U.S. economy showed continued expansion in January with the Institute for Supply Management’s service index reaching its highest level since September. Based on surveys with supply managers, the index signaled growth for the 13th month in a row. Among the highlights were faster growth in new orders, employment and supplier deliveries. The trade group said supply managers reported steady business and were optimistic because of potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Executives also expressed caution about inflation and geopolitical conflicts.
Tuesday
No major releases
Wednesday
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in 2023 from a record high in 2022, as the value of imports declined. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the 2023 trade gap was $773.4 billion, down 18% from the year before. Exports grew 1.2% in the year while imports fell 3.6%. Trade deficits detract from economic output, as measured by the gross domestic product. For the year, Mexico ranked first in imports to the U.S., displacing China for the first time in 20 years.
The Federal Reserve reported a slower increase in consumer credit card debt outstanding in December. So-called revolving credit debt rose at a 1% annual rate in December, the 31st gain in 32 months – and the slightest advance in that period. For the fourth quarter, credit card debt rose at a 6.8% annual rate, down from 10.1% in the third quarter. Economists look at credit card debt as a sign of consumer confidence. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, although it still reflected a historically tight hiring market. Data from the Labor Department showed the latest four-week average was 42% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have suggested employers’ reluctance to let workers. Total claims rose 6% from the week before to 2.2 million, which was 14% higher than the year before.
Friday
No major releases
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
- Nasdaq – 15991, up 362 points or 2.3%
- Standard & Poor’s 500 – 5027, up 68 points or 1.4%
- Dow Jones Industrial – 38671, up 17 points or 0.0%
- 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.19%, up 0.15 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildMike Hoelzl(with Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Sept. 4-8, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets and government agencies closed for Labor Day
Tuesday
The Commerce Department said factory orders declined in July for the first time in five months. The measure of demand for manufactured goods slipped 2.1% after gaining 2.3% in June. Through the first seven months of 2023, orders were up a mere 0.5% from the year before. Excluding requests for transportation equipment, which has an outsized effect on the indicator, orders rose 0.8% from June but were down 1.6% from July 2022. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% for the month and were up 2.3% from the year before.
Wednesday
The U.S. trade gap widened by 2% in July to $65 billion. Exports rose 1.6% from June, led by automotive vehicles. Imports increased 1.7%, led by cell phones, semiconductors and industrial supplies. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that through July, the deficit declined 21% from the year before with a 1.6% gain in exports and a 4.3% drop in imports.
The U.S. service sector expanded in August for the eighth month in a row and at the fastest pace since February. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey of purchasing managers showed general optimism toward business and economic conditions with signs of accelerated growth. The trade group said the index suggested the U.S. economy was growing at an annual rate of 1.6%.
Thursday
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in four weeks, dropping to 38% below the 56-year average, a sign that employers continue to be reluctant about letting workers go. The Labor Department reported that total claims stayed steady from the week before at 1.7 million, which was up 28% from the year before.
Worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was down from a previous estimate of 3.7%. The annual rate of output rose 1.9% in the quarter while the hours worked sank 1.5% – the first quarterly decline in three years. Since the second quarter of 2022, productivity rose 1.3%, the first such increase since the end of 2021. That 1.3% matched the annual rate of productivity growth since the end of 2019, which was slightly below the pace during the previous economic cycle, which started in 2007.
Friday
No significant reports
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 13762, down 270 points or 1.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4457, down 58 points or 1.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34577, down 261 points or 0.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.26%, up 0.08 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Aug. 28-Sept. 1, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Higher mortgage rates may be dampening demand for home buying, but house prices continued to rise in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Prices were unchanged from the year before, but the fifth monthly increase in the index suggested a return to accelerating prices after months of slowdown pegged to higher mortgage rates. Half of the cities in a 20-city composite index hit record prices in June. And though broad gains “could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness,” a spokesperson for the longstanding measure said analysts foresee further price gains.
With lower expectations for stocks and higher expectations for interest rates, consumer confidence waned in August, offsetting two prior months of gains, the Conference Board reported. The business research group saw renewed concerns about prices for groceries and gas despite months of slower inflation, and consumers expressed less confidence in the job market. The Conference Board said expectations overall were barely above a level that typically indicates recession.
Employer demand for workers slowed in July with job openings declining to 8.8 million posts, the lowest since March 2021. As many as 12 million openings were posted in the spring of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but demand still remained well above the pre-pandemic high of 7.6 million openings. In a sign that workers may be losing confidence in the labor market, the number of workers quitting their jobs to seek other positions decreased in July, especially at larger employers.
Wednesday
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in April through June, down from an initial estimate of 2.4%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said it revised gross domestic product lower because inventory buildups and fixed commercial investments weren’t as strong in the second quarter as earlier data suggested. State and local governments spent slightly more than initially estimated. The pace of consumer expenditures, which generate about two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 1.7%. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 3.7% from the second quarter of 2022, the slowest pace in more than two years.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose 0.9% in July. The monthly gain was the second in a row, but commitments to buy houses were down 14% from July 2022. The trade association said it sees potential for further growth in home sales but acknowledged ongoing challenges from higher mortgage rates and limited inventory.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, though it remained 35% below the 56-year average, suggestingcontinued reluctance by employers to let workers go. According to the Labor Department, total claims rose 0.5% from the week before to 1.7 million, which was up 27% from the 1.4 million claims the same time last year. Two years ago, claims exceeded 12 million.
Personal spending rose 0.8% in July, the most since January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The spending increase dwarfed the month’s 0.2% gain in personal income, resulting in the personal saving rate declining to 3.5% of disposable income, down from 4.3% in June and 9.3% just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The PCE inflation index rose 3.3% from July 2022, up from a 3% rate in June.
Friday
U.S. employers continued adding jobs in August, and the unemployment rate ticked up as more job seekers entered the pool. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls expanded by 187,000 jobs, a quicker pace than in June and July but down from a 12-month average of 271,000. Health care and leisure/hospitality businesses added the most jobs. The average hourly wage rose 4.3% from the year before, outpacing overall inflation for the fourth month in a row. The unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% from 3.5% in July, reaching the highest rate in a year and a half.
The manufacturing sector contracted in August for the 10th month in a row. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the contraction slowed slightly from July but said none of the components in its index suggested growth. Based on past relationships between the index and gross domestic product, the group said the overall economy was receding at a 0.4% annual rate.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose 0.7% in July, driven by spending on housing and manufacturing. Residential spending accounts for 45% of the total outlay and increased 1.4% from June, led by single-family housing. Manufacturing, representing 10% of all construction spending, grew 1.1% for the month and was up 71% from the year before.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 14032, up 441 points or 3.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4516, up 110 points or 2.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34838, up 492 points or 1.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.17%, down 0.07 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Blake Miller) Week in Review (Aug. 22-26, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No significant releases Tuesday The real estate market continued to struggle in July as the annual rate of existing home sales sank for the fourth time in five months. The National Association of Realtors said sales were on an annual pace of 4.07 million, down 2.2% from June and 16.6% below the rate in July 2022. The trade association blamed low inventory and high interest rates for choppy sales. Conventional mortgage rates recently reached the highest in more than 20 years. The median sales price was $406,700, up about 2% from the year before.
Wednesday Though a fraction of the overall market, the annual rate of new home sales rose 4.4% in July, the Commerce Department reported. The pace reached 714,000 houses, which was up 31% from July 2022. The rate was slightly ahead of where it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Fewer houses sold for $500,000 or more in July (34% of all sales vs. 46% the year before). The median sales price for a new house fell nearly 9% from July 2022 to $436,700. Thursday The Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods fell in July for the first time in five months. A drop in commitments for commercial aircraft led a 5.2% decline in total orders. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.5% from June. Overall demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 4.4% from July 2022 but ahead just 0.5% without transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% from June and were 2.3% above of the year before.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the third week in a row. At 236,750 claims, the average was 35% below the 56-year average, suggesting continued reluctance by employers to let go of workers. The Labor Department reported that 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 0.2% from the week before and up from 1.4 million the year before. Friday The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index declined insignificantly in August, as Americans sensed moderating progress on inflation. The survey-based measure was 39% above its all-time low, reached in June 2022. Though still subdued historically, the index hit its second-highest mark in 21 months. Survey respondents suggested a tentative outlook toward the near-term economy and its effects on their personal finances. Economists consider sentiment a bellwether for consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13591, up 300 points or 2.3% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4406, up 36 points or 0.8% Dow Jones Industrial – 34347, down 154 points or 0.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 5.32%, up 0.07 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 7-11, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday In a sign of weakening consumer spending, outstanding credit card debt slowed in June. The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% decline in the annual rate of revolving consumer debt outstanding, the first decrease since April 2022. The pace of total consumer debt rose 4.3% from May, including a 6% jump in non-revolving debt – which is mostly car financing and student loans. With nearly 70% of U.S. economic growth relying on consumer spending, the drop in credit card debt suggests a drop-off in commitment to buying on credit. Credit card debt in June was still up about 30% from where it plunged after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tuesday The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 4.1% in June to $65.5 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Exports declined 0.1% from May, led by industrial supplies and consumer goods. Imports fell 1%, despite higher U.S. demand for overseas automobiles, gems, artwork and non-monetary gold. Through the first half of 2023, the balance between what Americans buy from overseas and what they sell abroad narrowed 22% from the same time last year. Exports fell 2.5% in that period; imports fell 4%. Wednesday No major releases Thursday Higher costs for shelter accounted for 90% of the rise in inflation in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 0.2% from June. Prices for car insurance and education also rose, while the cost of air fare, used vehicles and medical care declined. Compared to the year before, the CPI rose to 3.2% from a 3% inflation rate in June. That was the first acceleration in the rate since it crested above 9% in June 2022. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose less than 0.2% from June, tied with June for the smallest gain since February 2021. The core CPI rose 4.7% from the year before, the lowest since October 2021.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in six weeks but stayed below the all-time average by 37%, according to data released by the Labor Department. The total number of claims fell 0.4% from the week before to 1.8 million, up from fewer than 1.5 million the year before. Friday Inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.3% in July, led by increased prices for services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.8% from July 2022, up from 0.7% in June but down from 11.7% in March 2022. Excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% for the month – the biggest increase since a 0.3% gain in February. Since July 2022, the core PPI rose 2.7%, the lowest 12-month move since February 2021.
Consumer opinions toward the economy and their personal finances stayed above year-ago lows but below historical averages in August, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The longstanding index hit 71.2 in a preliminary August reading, up about 42% from a record low last summer but down from the long-time average of 86. Since July, consumers felt slightly better about current conditions and slightly worse about future expectations. Survey respondents said they anticipate inflation to be about 3.3% in August 2024 and 2.9% longer term. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13645, down 264 points or 1.9% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4464, down 14 points or 0.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 35281, up 216 points or 0.6% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.17%, up 0.11 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Steve Giles (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 31-Aug. 4, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports or releases Tuesday Employers’ demand for workers eased slightly in June, with job openings falling to 9.6 million, the lowest in more than two years. Both hires and separations fell 5% in June, and the number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs dipped to 3.8 million, also the lowest since 2021. That suggested employees were less confident in finding new jobs. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed openings remained still well above the pre-pandemic high of 7.5 million. Openings continued to far outnumber unemployed job seekers in June.
The manufacturing sector contracted in July for the ninth month in a row, though at a slower pace than in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed demand and production strengthening marginally. Employment indicators in manufacturing worsened with expectations that they’ll continue to decline. Based on past relationships between the index and gross domestic product, the ISM said the U.S. economy was receding at an annual rate of 0.8%.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose for the sixth month in a row in June, gaining 0.5% from May and adding 3.5% from the year before. Housing accounted for 45% of all construction spending and was up 0.9% from the seasonally adjusted annual pace in May. Year to year, residential construction declined, except for multi-family housing. Spending on manufacturing construction increased 80% from June 2022. Wednesday No major reports or releases Thursday Worker productivity increased at a 3.7% annual rate in the second quarter, the strongest showing since the end of 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gain came on 2.4% higher output as workers worked 1.3% fewer hours. It was the first quarter that work hours declined since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Year to year, productivity rose 1.3%, the first gain since the end of 2021. Unit labor costs rose at a 1.6% annual rate and rose 2.4% from the year before. Hourly compensation, adjusted for inflation, rose at a 2.7% pace in the second quarter, but it was down 0.3% from the same time last year.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row, reaching its lowest level since March, 38% below the all-time average. A measure of employers’ willingness to let go of workers, the jobless claims suggested continued tightness in the labor market. The Labor Department said fewer than 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down nearly 3% from the week before but up 27% from the year before.
The service sector of the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s service index showed expansion for the seventh month in a row with fewer orders, less business activity and decreased hiring. The ISM said deliveries continued to improve following supply chain delays during the COVID-19 pandemic. The index suggested GDP was growing at a 1% annual rate.
Demand for commercial aircraft and parts propelled further growth in factory orders in June. The Commerce Department reported that total orders rose 2.3% from May, the fourth increase in a row and the sixth in seven months. Orders for commercial aircraft soared 69% from May. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% for the month and were down 1.3% from the year before, vs. a gain of 0.9% with transportation included. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% from May and were up 2.6% from June 2022. Friday U.S. employers added 187,
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 24-28, 2023) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday The year-to-year change in residential prices declined in May for the second month in a row. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index fell 0.5% from the year before, compared to a 0.1% decline in April. Month to month, though, prices have been rising, prompting an S&P housing analyst to suggest that a deceleration in price increases that began last June bottomed out in January. For the first time in five years, cold-weather cities — Chicago, Cleveland and New York — topped the locations posting the highest price increases.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose to its highest level in two years. The business research group said slowing inflation and a tight job market boosted consumers’ views of current conditions and their outlooks. Consumer near-term expectations exceeded a level historically linked to recession, the Conference Board said. Even so, the organization repeated its forecast for a U.S. economic downturn by the end of the year. Wednesday The annual rate of new home sales fell in June, dropping 2.5% from May’s pace but up 24% from June 2022, when mortgage rates were starting to rise. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of unsold houses improved marginally from May, when it was the lowest level in more than a year. The median price of new houses was $415,400, down 4% from the year before. Thursday U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of 2023. According to an advance report on gross domestic product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.4% from the first three months of the year, up from a 2% pace in the first quarter. Faster growth was attributed to businesses investing in their operations and building inventory. Adjusted for inflation, real GDP was up 2.6% from the same time in 2022. Housing investments fell for the ninth quarter in a row. The PCE inflation index rose 4.4% from the second quarter of 2022, the lowest in two years.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, more evidence of a tight labor market. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average was 36% below the 56-year average, suggesting employers are reluctant to let workers go. In the latest week, 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, up 9% from the week before and up 30% from the 1.5 million the same time last year.
Manufacturing demand stayed steady in June, with durable goods orders rising for the fourth month in a row. Orders rose 4.7% from May, led by a jump in contracts for commercial aircraft. Excluding the volatile transportation category, the value of orders rose 0.6% from May, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Compared to June 2022, total orders rose 4.6% and were up 0.5% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.2% from May and 2.6% from June 2022.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose in June for the first time in three months. The trade association reported a 0.3% rise in the index from May with a decline of 16% from June 2022. An economist for the Realtors declared the housing recession over and said mortgage rates have topped out but a recovery in sales has not yet begun. He forecast 2023 existing home sales at 4.38 million, which would be 13% below the 2022 total. He also projected a 16% rebound to 5.06 million in 2024. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending – which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP – rose 0.5% in June, up from a 0.2% gain in May.
Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 17-21, 2023) Significant economic indicators & reports Monday No major releases Tuesday A key measure of consumer spending showed signs of slowing in June. Retail sales rose 0.2% from May, but only seven of 13 categories gained, with lower sales reported among gas stations, grocery stores, home-and-garden centers and others. Noting that retail sales represent about two-thirds of consumer spending, which is the prime driver of U.S. economic growth, the Commerce Department reported that sales were up 1.5% from June 2022. Adjusted for inflation, sales were unchanged from May and down nearly 2% from the year before.
The Federal Reserve said industrial production weakened in June, declining for the second month in a row. Output from manufacturing, mining and utilities was down 0.4% from June 2022. In particular, the production of long-lasting consumer goods dropped off in June but still posted a positive second quarter. Industrial capacity use declined to 78.9%, the second month in a row below its 50-year average of 79.7%. A high usage rate can signal rising inflation. Wednesday The U.S. housing market continued to weaken in June following a year of higher mortgage rates. The annual pace for both housing starts and building permits declined from May and lagged the June 2022 level as well. The Commerce Department report showed housing under construction remaining near an all-time peak, although the pace of construction for single-family houses kept trending lower.
Thursday The pace of existing home sales continued to slow in June, dipping 3% from May and remaining 19% behind the rate in June 2022. The National Association of Realtors said through the first half of the year, sales were down 23% from the same time last year. An ongoing concern: Inventory. The supply of houses for sale in June remained about the same as in May but was down 14% from the year before and only about half the level the market could absorb, the trade group said. The median price of a house sold in June was $410,200, slightly below the record high set in June 2022.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row, reflecting employers’ reluctance to let workers go in an historically tight labor market. Average claims dropped 35% below the all-time average dating back to 1967, according to the Labor Department. In the latest week, total claims dropped 0.9% to 1.7 million, up 29% from the year before but down from 12.6 million at the same time in 2021.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators continued to point to a U.S. recession. The index from the business research group fell 0.7% in June, its 15th consecutive deceleration, which is the longest streak since the months leading up to the Great Recession. The group said the index fell 4.2% in the first half of 2023, compared to a decline of 3.8% in the second half of 2022. The Conference Board forecast a recession from the current quarter to the first quarter of 2024. It cited inflation, interest rates, tighter lending and reduced government spending as forces to further slow the economy. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 14033, down 81 points or 0.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4536, up 31 points or 0.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 34228, up 719 points or 2.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.91%, up 0.09 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 10-14, 2023) Significant economic indicators & reports Monday U.S. consumer spending showed resilience in May with credit card debt increasing for the 25th month in a row. The Federal Reserve Board reported revolving consumer credit debt outstanding grew by an annual rate of 8% in May. Non-revolving debt, including student loans and vehicle financing, declined at an annual rate of 0.4%. Compared to May 2022, credit card debt rose by 15% to more than $1.25 trillion, which was more than 12% above its level just before the COVID pandemic.
Tuesday No major releases Wednesday The broadest measure of inflation rose at a 3% annual rate in June, less than one-third of where it peaked a year ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index continued slowing after hitting a 41-year high of 9.1% in June 2022. At 3%, the CPI was at its lowest point since March 2021. The year-to-year increase is still higher than the 2% long-term target of the Federal Reserve. Seasonally adjusted, the index rose 0.2% from May, with increased shelter costs contributing more than 70% of the gain. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, the core index rose 4.8% from June 2022, the lowest since October 2021.
Thursday Wholesale inflation also continued to moderate in June. The Producer Price Index rose 0.1% from the year before, having decelerated each month since hitting 11.2% in June 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On a monthly basis, the index budged 0.1% from May only through greater demand for services. Demand for goods was unchanged. Excluding volatile costs for food, energy and trade services, inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.1% from May and 2.6% from June 2022.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row to its lowest level in six weeks. The average hit 246,750 in the latest week, down 33% from the 56-year average. Total claims rose 3.8% in the latest week to nearly 1.8 million, which was up from 1.3 million the same time last year. Friday A stable labor market and slowing inflation have boosted consumer sentiment to its highest level since September 2021, according to a preliminary report by the University of Michigan. Seen as a precursor to consumer spending, sentiment has recovered from record lows a year ago and is midway back to where it left off when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. University researchers said that except for low-income workers, consumers surveyed showed broad improvements in how they view the economy and their personal finances. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 14114, up 453 points or 3.3% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4506, up 107 points or 2.4% Dow Jones Industrial – 34511, up 776 points or 2.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.82%, down 0.23 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Art Rothschild Adam Baley Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 3-7, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Shrinking in the manufacturing sector accelerated slightly in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index showed contraction for the eight month in a row, sinking to its lowest level since May 2020. As the slowing economy stifled demand, more manufacturers reported layoffs, with more expected. The ISM said the manufacturing index suggested that the overall U.S. economy is receding at a 0.1% annual rate.
The Department of Commerce said construction spending rose in May for the eighth month in a row. The $1.9 trillion annual pace was up 0.9% from April and 2% above the May 2022 rate. Spending on housing, which makes up about 45% of total construction spending, rose 2% for the month but was down 11% from the year before. Spending on manufacturing construction led the gains in both periods. Tuesday Markets and government offices closed for Independence Day Wednesday Demand for commercial aircraft helped manufactured goods post a steady gain in May, as factory orders rose 0.3% from April, the fifth increase in six months. However, excluding volatile transportation orders, new contracts declined 0.5%, according to the Commerce Department. Total orders rose 1.1% from May 2022; excluding transportation, they declined 0.5%. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, was up 0.7% from April and rose 2.8% from the year before. Thursday The U.S. services sector continued expanding in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed the sixth consecutive month of growth and the 36th gain in 37 months. Purchasing managers surveyed by the ISM said they saw stable business conditions but still had concerns about inflation and the economic outlook. The ISM said the services index suggested the overall economy is growing at a 1.4% annual pace.
U.S. employers posted 9.8 million job openings in May, down the fourth time in five months, though still ahead of levels just before the pandemic. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported steady numbers for hiring and dislocations compared to April. More than 4 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in May, the first gain in four months for quits, which is an indicator of worker confidence. In May, job openings outnumbered unemployed job seekers by 3.2 million, the lowest such gap since September 2021.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in five weeks. Considered an early indicator of joblessness, the measure was 31% below the 56-year average for claims; it was 21% above the low going into the COVID-19 pandemic. The Labor Department said 1.7 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits in the latest week, up 0.1% from the week before and 29% above the level of 1.3 million at the same time in 2022.
Imports declined more than exports in May to narrow the U.S. trade deficit to $69 billion. The trade gap fell 7.3% from April. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports contracted 0.8% in May, led by lower sales of soybeans and industrial fuels, offset slightly by a rise in automotive exports. Imports declined 2.3% with lower U.S. purchases of pharmaceutical preps and cellphones, although computer imports rose. Compared to May 2022, the trade deficit narrowed by nearly 23% with exports rising almost 4% and imports falling more than 3%. Trade deficits count against the gross domestic product. Friday U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.6%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The gain in jobs was the lowest in 30 straight months of increases but continued to suggest a resilient...
Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 26-30, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday Orders for durable goods rose 1.7% in May, the third consecutive gain in the measure of manufacturing demand. A 32% increase in commercial aircraft orders and a 2% rise in automotive orders led the uptick, the Commerce Department reported. Excluding transportation equipment, durable goods orders advanced just 0.6% from April. Overall orders were up 3.5% from the year before but just 0.4% without transportation equipment. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.7% from April and were up 2.7% from May 2022.
Housing prices declined from the year before for the first time since 2012, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Prices in April sank 0.2% from April 2022. The year-to-year comparison had been decelerating since peaking at a record gain of 21% last June. On a monthly basis, which gets clouded with seasonal factors, the index rose marginally from March, prompting an S&P analyst to note that a broad pricing recovery might be underway. S&P added that housing continued to face challenges from higher mortgage rates and a weakened economy.
The annual rate of new home sales improved in May, rising for the third month in a row and the seventh time in eight months. At 763,000 houses a year, the rate was the highest since February 2022, just before the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to dampen inflation. According to the Commerce Department, the inventory of new houses for sale fell to a seven-month month supply, down 12% from April and down 19% from May 2022. The median sales price was $416,300, down 8% from May 2022.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in June to its highest level since January 2022. Consumers expressed improved views of both current economic conditions and expectations for the future. The expectations index reached 79.5, staying lower than 80 for the 15th time in 60 months. The business research group said readings below 80 suggest anticipation of a recession in the next six to 12 months. Expectations for inflation reached the lowest since December 2020. A favorable job market appeared to be fueling consumer confidence, according to the Conference Board, although plans for major purchases have been slowing and revenge vacation spending may have peaked. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 2% in the first quarter, according to the last of three estimates of the gross domestic product. The increase was up from an earlier estimate of 1.3%, in part because consumer spending was stronger than initially measured and imports – which weigh against economic growth – were lower. The 2% growth rate was down from a 2.6% pace in the final quarter of 2022. Inflation-adjusted data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the economy 1.6% larger at the end of the first quarter than it was the year before.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, reaching its highest level since November 2021. Even so, Labor Department figures show the moving average 30% below the 56-year average, although it was 23% higher than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 1.7 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 1.4% from the week before and up 29% from the year before.
Pending home sales sank 2.7% in May, according to an index from the National Association of Realtors. Demand for existing houses was 22% below the index in May 2022. The trade group blamed lack of housing inventory for suppressing demand, noting that newly built houses were not coming on the market fast enough....
Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on this week’s podcast Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Dave Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 19-23, 2023) Significant Indicators & Reports Monday Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth Day Tuesday The annual pace of housing starts and building permits suggested the construction industry was picking up in May. A joint report from the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development showed new construction rising nearly 22% from April’s pace while permits rose 5%. Permits were at their fastest pace since September, despite being 13% below their level the year before. Housing starts, led by multi-family units, were the highest since April 2022, which marked the fastest pace since 2006. The number of houses under construction in May hovered near record heights, based on data going back to 1970.
Wednesday No major reports Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued to rise, up for the third week in a row and the fourth time in five weeks. The Labor Department reported that the average level of new claims was at its highest point since November 2021. Though still 30% below the 56-year average, the measure of employer reluctance to part with workers was 23% above its low just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 1.7 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 3% from the week before and up 29% from the same time last year.
The National Association of Realtors said steady mortgage rates helped existing home sales grow marginally in May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.3 million houses sold was up 0.2% from April’s pace but down 20% from the year before, when conventional mortgage rates were nearly a full percentage point lower. The trade association pointed to low inventory as an ongoing hindrance to sales, noting that the number of houses for sale were about half the level in 2019. Weakened demand resulted in the median sales price sinking 3% from May 2022 to $396,100.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators fell 0.7% in May, for the 14th consecutive decline. The business research group cited a negative yield spread and drops in consumer expectations, factory orders and credit conditions for the monthly setback. Since November, the index was down 4.3%, compared to a 3.8% decline over the prior six months. The Conference Board forecast marginal growth for the economy in the second quarter followed by recession toward the end of 2023 and into the beginning of 2024. Friday No major reports MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13493, down 197 points or 1.4% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4348, down 61 points or 1.4% Dow Jones Industrial – 33729, down 571 points or 1.7% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.74%, down 0.03 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 12-16, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports Tuesday The broadest measure of inflation slowed to the lowest rate in more than two years, though it was still twice as high as the long-range Federal Reserve target. The Consumer Price Index rose 4% in May, down from 4.9% in April and a decades-high 9.1% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation inched up 0.1% from April as a 5.6% drop in gas prices offset higher costs for shelter, used vehicles and food away from home. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the so-called core CPI rose 0.4% for May, trending on par with April and March. Since May 2022, the core rate increased 5.3%, the lowest in 18 months.
Wednesday Inflation on the wholesale level also continued to retreat in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index declined 0.3% from April, falling for the third time in four months, led by a 14% drop in gas prices. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI was unchanged from April. Compared to 12 months prior, wholesale inflation rose 1.1% in May, the lowest since the end of 2020 and down from more than 11% last June. Core PPI was up 2.8% from May 2022, when the rate had reached 6.8%. Thursday Amid signs of a slowing economy, consumers continued to fuel further growth in May, sending retail sales up 0.3%. Lower prices at gas stations held back the overall gain in retail sales, which was led by car dealerships and home-and-garden centers. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales rose 0.2% from April, the first measurable increase since December. Compared to May 2022, total retail sales rose by 1.6%, including an 8% gain at bars and restaurants.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third time in four weeks to its highest level since November 2021. Still, the indicator of employers’ willingness to let workers go remained 33% below its 56-year average. According to the Labor Department, total claims for jobless benefits reached more than 1.6 million, down slightly from the week before. The year before, claims were below 1.3 million; at the same point in 2021, they had reached 14.8 million.
U.S. industrial output declined 0.2% in May, the first dip in five months. The Federal Reserve reported broad modest setbacks in production except in the manufacturing of defense equipment and aerospace gear. Manufacturing output rose slightly for the fourth time in five months. Capacity utilization — often an early indicator of inflation —fell to 79.6%, just below its level in April and nearly the same as the average 7.97% rate since 1972. Friday With inflation cooling and the debt ceiling lifted, consumer sentiment is on the rise, according to the University of Michigan. A preliminary June reading of the university’s longstanding consumer surveys showed sentiment still historically weak but up 28% from the all-time low set a year ago. While expectations for inflation are receding, consumers still anticipate a more difficult economy in the next year. Economists see consumers’ sentiment as a predictor of their spending, which generates two-thirds of U.S. economic growth. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13690, up 430 points or 3.2% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4410, up 111 points or 2.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 34301, up 424 points or 1.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.77%, up0.02 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 5-9, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Though at a slower pace, the services industry expanded in May for the fifth month in a row and the 35th time in 36 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM services index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, suggested stable but slowing conditions amid sluggish demand and weaker hiring. Slower growth resulted in further reduction in the supply chain challenges that clogged the industry in the early recovery from the pandemic. The ISM reported the lowest back logs and smoothest suppliers’ deliveries since 2009.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose in April for the fourth time in five months, though largely because of military orders. Overall, orders gained 0.6% from March, but excluding defense contracts, they declined 0.4%. The military accounted for about half of the 1.4% year-to-year growth in factory orders. In comparison, core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 1.3% from March and were up 2.7% from April 2022. Tuesday No major releases Wednesday The U.S. trade deficit widened 23% in April to $74.6 billion from $60.6 billion in March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that U.S. exports shrank 3.6% from March, led by goods, especially oil and industrial materials. Imports grew 1.5%, led by automotive products and cell phones. Through the first four months of 2023, the trade gap grew 24% from the year before. In that time, exports grew 6%, and imports declined 2%. Because trade deficits count against gross domestic product, the widened gap is another sign of slowed economic growth.
The Federal Reserve Board reported that outstanding revolving consumer credit debt rose again in April, though at a slightly slower rate. While total debt rose at a 5.7% annual rate from March, revolving credit, which mostly includes credit cards, increased at a 13.1% pace. That was down from 14.6% in March, marking the fourth deceleration in five months. Still, consumers increased credit card debt for the 24th month in a row. An indicator of consumer confidence, the level of credit card debt was up $146 billion or 13% from when the pandemic started. The measure took 26 months to recover from its collapse after the pandemic. In contrast, it took more than 10 years to recover from the Great Recession.
Thursday Though still historically low, the four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose for the second time in three weeks. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go reached its highest level in five weeks but was 35% below the 56-year average, according to Labor Department data. Some 1.6 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down slightly from the week before but up 27% from the year before. Friday No major releases MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13259, up 18 points or 0.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4299, up 16 points or 0.4% Dow Jones Industrial – 33877, up 114 points or 0.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.75%, up0.05 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (May 29-June 2, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets and government closed for Memorial Day Tuesday Housing prices continued to decelerate in March, although some data suggested the trend might be reversing. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index grew at a 12-month rate of 0.7%, down from nearly 21% the year before, which was the highest in more than 35 years of data. An analyst for S&P noted regional differences with home prices rising faster in the Southeast (up 5.4%) and actually declining in the Northwest (down 6.2%). Also, month-to-month measures suggested price gains may be increasing again, despite higher mortgage rates in the last year and a weaker economy.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in May, though not as much as analysts expected. The business and research group said perceived weakness in the labor market lowered views of current conditions. Expectations for the economy faded slightly and remained below the level associated with recession for the 14th time in 15 months. Consumers older than 55 especially soured on the outlook. Wednesday U.S. employers posted 10.1 million job openings in April, up 3.7% from March, making it the first increase in four months. Retailers and health care employers led the gain in want ads, as the gap grew between jobs posted and unemployed job seekers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported a 4.7% decline in the number of layoffs, led by the construction industry. The degree to which workers were quitting their jobs voluntarily – a sign of worker confidence in the hiring market – remained steady, down from the historic peak of the year before but still well above the long-time average.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third time in four weeks to its lowest level since March and 38% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. New Labor Department data showed more than 1.6 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, down marginally from the week before, up from 1.3 million the year before but down from more than 15 million at the same time in 2021.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity fell at an annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter. Non-farm output rose at an annual pace of 0.5% in the first three months of the year while hours worked rose at a 2.6% rate. Since the first quarter of 2022, productivity dipped 0.8% for the fifth consecutive quarter of decline, which had never happened before in data going back to 1947. Since just before the pandemic, productivity has increased by an annual rate of 1.1%, a historic low for business cycles, according to the BLS. Labor costs rose at a 4.2% rate in the first quarter, which factors in the 2.1% productivity growth and a 2.1% rise in hourly compensation. Since the first quarter of 2022, labor costs increased 3.8%.
The manufacturing sector shrank again in May. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index landed under 50 for the seventh month in a row, suggesting the industry was contracting. Rises in production and employment components of the index were offset by declines in new orders, supplier deliveries and inventories. The trade group said its index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, suggested the U.S. economy was receding at an annual pace of 0.6%.
The pace of construction spending rose 1.2% in April, the third increase in a row and the sixth in eight months. The record annual rate of more than $1.9 trillion was up 7.2% from April 2022, the Commerce Department reported. Residential spending, which accounts for about 45% of total spending, rose 0.4% from the March pace.
Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromAdam Baley(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 22-26, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
The annual sales rate of new houses increased un April for the third month in a row and was up nearly 12% from the year before. The pace was 2% below where it was at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and down 33% from its recent peak in late 2020. The Commerce Department said the median price fell 8% from April 2022 to just under $421,000.
Wednesday
No major reports
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims was unchanged with just one increase in the last six weeks, according to new data from the Labor Department. An indication of employer reluctance to let workers go, the moving average was down 37% from its long-time average going back to 1967. Some 1.6 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2.8% from the week before but up 24% from the year before.
The U.S. economy grew slightly faster than initially estimated in the first quarter, rising at an annual rate of 1.3%. At first, the Bureau of Economic Analysis figured gross domestic product grew at a 1.1% annual pace, but consumer spending, exports, government spending and commercial investments increased more than estimated. Offsets occurred in part through declines in inventories and decreased residential spending – for the eighth consecutive quarter. The inflation-adjusted level of GDP was up 1.6% from the first quarter of 2022 and was 6.8% above the pre-pandemic peak. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred inflation indicator showed a 4.2% increase from the year before, unchanged from previous estimates.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index was unchanged in April but down more than 20% from April 2022 and down about 21% from what the trade group considers normal. The association blamed limited inventory and affordability challenges for a lull in commitments from homebuyers. Having more houses for sale, the Realtors said, would spur sales.
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.8% in April, the fourth gain in a row and the highest since January. Personal income meanwhile rose 0.4%, sending the personal saving rate down to 4.1% of disposable income, the first dip in seven months. In the same report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation rose 4.4% from April 2022, up from 4.2% in March. That’s down from a four-decade high of 7% last June but more than double the Fed’s long-term target of 2% inflation.
A precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, declined further in May, erasing half the gains made since hitting an all-time low last June. The University of Michigan said descending sentiment mirrored how consumers reacted to the partisan debt ceiling standoff in 2011. Surveys showed consumers steady on inflation expectations and personal financial outlooks but worried that a recession would inflict lasting pain.
The Commerce Department said military aircraft boosted durable goods orders 1.1% in April. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders slipped 0.2%; excluding military equipment, orders declined 0.6%. Since April, total orders rose 2.6% but were up just 0.3% excluding transportation and up 1.1% excluding defense orders. A proxy for business investments rose 1.4% from March and was up 2.7% from April 2022.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12976, up 318 points or 2.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4205, up 13 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33093, down 333 points or 1.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.81%, up 0.17%
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingMike HoelzlKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Kevin Lofy)Week in Review (May 15-19, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
Consumers returned to car dealerships and home improvement centers and kept going to bars and restaurants in April, as retail sales rose for the first time in three months. The Commerce Department reported a 0.4% increase from March as revenue rose in seven of 13 categories. Spending at retailers advanced 1.6% from April 2022, with higher sales in six categories, including online and at restaurants and bars. Corrected for inflation, sales inched up 0.1% from March and were down 3.2% from April 2022, the fifth year-to-year decline in six months.
The Federal Reserve said its industrial production index rose 0.5% in April after two months of moving sideways. A 1% surge in output boosted the index amid a minimal rise in the mining sector and a decline in utilities production resulting from mild weather. Auto making led the lift in manufacturing, which was up for the third time in four months. Total capacity utilization rate rose to 79.7%, the highest since November and on par with its average since 1972. Manufacturing capacity was near its long-term average, and mining capacity remained above normal. Meanwhile, utilities continued to be using less capacity than they have historically.
Wednesday
Construction of new houses quickened slightly while plans for more stepped back in April, according to a Commerce Department report on building permits and housing starts. The figures showed a 2% rise in the annual pace of starts compared to March at the same time permits fell nearly 2%. Relative to April 2022, both indicators were down more than 20%, coinciding with steep interest rate increases. Both starts and permits stayed below the pace heading into the COVID pandemic. The number of houses under construction remained near record highs, especially for multi-family housing.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in three weeks after hitting its highest level in 18 months. The average remained above the low point heading into the pandemic but was 34% below the 56-year average. Total claims fell 2% from the week before, just under 1.4 million applications, which was 23% higher than the year before, according to Labor Department data.
The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 0.6% in April, the 13th consecutive decline, signaling recession. The business research group noted that weakness rose from a decline of 1.2% in March, but the six-month drop of 4.4% exceeded the fall during the prior six months. Based on its index, the Conference Board forecast a mild recession for the U.S. economy beginning midyear.
A combination of strong job market, vacillating mortgage rates and limited supply is causing existing home sales to bounce around, resulting in a 3.4% decline in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual sales rate fell to below 4.3 million houses, down 23.2% from April 2022. The trade group said inventories rose only slightly and were just 2.9 months’ supply at the current sales pace. The median price fell to $388,800, down 1.7% from the year before. It was the second straight year-to-year price drop after nearly 11 years of consecutive gains.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12658, up 373 points or 3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4192, up 68 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33426, up 126 points or 0.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.69%, up 0.23%
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildSteve Giles(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 8-12, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
No major releases
Wednesday
Inflation continued to slow in April, though it remained well above Federal Reserve Board targets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index rose 4.9% from April 2022, the 10th consecutive reduction in pace since exceeding a four-decade high of 9% last June. It was the lowest 12 rate since April 2021 but more than double the Fed long-range target of 2% inflation. Shelter costs contributed the most to the monthly rise, but their 0.4% gain from March was the slightest for the category in 15 months. A 3% rise in gasoline prices also boosted the index as well as a 4.4% jump in the cost of used vehicles.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, reaching its highest point since November 2021. Still, data from the Labor Department showed the measure 31% below the 56-year average, suggesting continued reluctance by employers to let workers go. Total claims for benefits declined 3% in the latest week to just under 1.8 million, compared to 1.4 million the year before.
Inflation on the wholesale level registered a 2.3% annual increase in April, the lowest since January 2021. The Producer Price Index was down from as high as 11.2% last June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the index rose 0.2% from March, the first monthly gain in four months, mostly because of higher prices for services but also due to an increase in the cost of gasoline. The core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, also rose 0.2% for the month and was up 3.4% from April 2022.
Friday
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment declined sharply from the end of April as both expectations and current assessments fell amid renewed concerns about the economy. Despite lack of empirical evidence, the university said, consumers are losing faith in the economy, exacerbated by political confrontations over the federal debt ceiling. The latest survey wiped out nearly half the gains made since consumer sentiment reached an all-time low last June.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12285, up 49 points or 0.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4124, down 12 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33301, down 374 points or 1.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.46%, up 0.02%
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingTom PappenfusKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (May 1-5, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
The manufacturing sector continued contracting in April for the sixth month in a row, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed employment as the only component to grow from March. Although April’s contraction slowed from March, manufacturing’s business activity started dropping off last June. With declines in demand for manufactured goods, the ISM noted improved responsiveness from supply chains.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose in March for the first time in four months. Increased spending on manufacturing construction helped offset a 2% drop in residential expenditures. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than $1.8 trillion, construction spending rose 3.8% from March 2022. Housing, which accounted for about 46% of total spending, was down 9.8% from the year before. Government outlays for construction rose 0.2% for the month and 15% over the year, including big increases for conservation and development.
Tuesday
The tight hiring market loosened a little in March as job openings declined and layoffs and discharges rose. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings shrank for the third month in a row to 9.6 million, the lowest in two years, though they remained above the pre-pandemic peak of 7.6 million. More employers let workers go in March, especially in construction and at hotels and restaurants. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of employment confidence – also fell. Still, open jobs continued to far outnumber the 5.8 million unemployed job seekers in March.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose in March for the first time in four months, though a surge in demand for commercial aircraft tipped the scale. Excluding orders for transportation equipment, demand for manufactured goods fell for the fourth time in five months. Compared to March 2022, the dollar amount for total orders rose 2.4%, vs. a 1.4% gain excluding transportation. A proxy for business investments rose 3.2% from its year-earlier level but declined for the fourth time in five months.
Wednesday
The service sector of the U.S. economy kept growing in April, accelerating slightly from March, signaling a fourth consecutive expansion. The Institute for Supply Management said its index for the service sector showed growth for the 34th time in 35 months. An uptick in new orders and continued improvements in capacity and logistics boosted the index from March. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group cited ongoing concerns about inflation and economic slowdown. The ISM said the index suggested the overall economy was growing at a 0.7% annual rate.
Thursday
The U.S. trade deficit shrank 9.1% in March to $64.2 billion as the value of exports rose 2.1% while imports declined 0.3%. Leading the increase in exports were industrial products such as crude oil. Consumer goods, including cell phones, led imports lower. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the first-quarter deficit widened 27.6% from the year before as exports fell 8.7% while imports fell 1.6%. Trade deficits detract from gross domestic product, the key measure of economic growth.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks. The moving average was 35% below the all-time average. The Labor Department said fewer than 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before but up 20% from about 1.5 million the year before. Two years prior, total claims exceeded 16 million.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity sank at an annual rate of 2.7% in the first quarter, as the pace of output barely budged at 0.2% while hours worked rose 3%. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, productivity fell 0.9% – the fifth consecutive year-to-year decline, which never occurred before in 75 years of data. And while output per hour fell in the first quarter, compensation per hour rose. Employers’ labor costs rose at a 6.3% annualized rate or 5.8% if measured from the first quarter of 2022.
Friday
U.S. employers added 253,000 jobs in April, putting them 3.3 million or 2.2% ahead of where they were before COVID-19 hit in February 2020. According to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the additional jobs were short of the 290,000 six-month average but showed a broad-based resilience amid some signs of the economy slowing. The leisure and hospitality industry continued adding jobs, though it remained down from pre-pandemic levels by 402,000 jobs or 2.4%. A separate survey of households showed the unemployment rate dipping back to 3.4%, where it was in January, the lowest since 1969. The unemployment rate for Black Americans reached an all-time low of 4.7%, and the labor force participation rate of 25- to 54-year-olds rose to 83.3%, the highest since 2008.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12235, up 9 points or 0.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4136, down 33 points or 0.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33674, down 424 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.45%, no change
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesAdam Baley(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 24-28)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continued to weaken demand for housing, resulting in lower gains in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose by 2% from the year before, the lowest 12-month increase since August 2012. The year-to-year gain has decelerated every month since hitting a record 20.8% in March 2022.
The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales rose 9.6% in March, though it was down more than 3% from the year-earlier pace and just below the level going into the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply of new houses for sale rose to the highest level since November, according to seasonally adjusted estimates. The cost of ownership continued to rise. The median sales price was up 3% from March 2022 to $449,800.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in April with expectations falling below a level associated with impending recession for the 13th time in 14 months. The business research group said consumer attitudes toward current economic conditions picked up from March and expectations for inflation in the next year were unchanged, at around 6%. But fewer consumers reported plans to spend on big-ticket items such as cars, appliances and vacations. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.
Wednesday
Manufacturing demand picked up in March, with durable goods orders rising 3.2% from February, the first increase in three months, according to the Commerce Department. Gains were led by a 78% rise in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, durable goods orders rose 0.4%. Since March 2022, all orders rose 3.3%, including 1.5% without transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, declined 0.4% from February and were up 1.4% from March 2022.
Thursday
The U.S. economy grew at an annual pace of 1.1% in the first quarter, the slowest rate for the gross domestic product since back-to-back declines to start 2022. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported consumer spending rose at a 3.7% rate in the first three months of 2023, which was the fastest pace in seven quarters. Offsetting that were weaker spending by businesses and the eighth consecutive quarter of declines for housing. Adjusted for inflation, GDP was up 1.3% from the first quarter of 2022 and 5% above the peak prior to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose 4.9%, the lowest in six quarters.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row and the third time in four weeks. The average was 36% below the 56-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, 1.8 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.4% from the week before and up from 1.6 million the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 5.2% in March, the first decline in four months. The trade group’s index was down 23% from the year before. An economist for the association blamed low inventory for the latest setback, noting that there’s still enough demand for houses that about a third of March sales involved multiple offers and 28% sold for more than the asking price. The Realtors forecast a 9% drop in houses sold this year and projected a 15% rebound in 2024.
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose less than 0.1% in March as increased expenditures on services such as housing and health care were offset by lower outlays for goods, including cars. The pause in spending came as personal income rose 0.3% from February, resulting in the personal savings rate (5.1% of disposable income) rising for the sixth month in a row. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 4.2% from March 2022, the lowest inflation rate in nearly two years. The Fed’s long-range target is 2%.
Often a pre-cursor to spending, consumer sentiment, rose slightly in April but stayed low historically. The longstanding survey from the University of Michigan showed consumer outlooks barely budging while feelings toward current conditions improved marginally. The university said ongoing expectations of elevated inflation were eating into consumers’ assessment of their personal finances.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12227, up 154 points or 1.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4170, up 36 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34099, up 290 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.45%, down 0.12 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildDave Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12072, down 51 points or 0.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4134, down 4 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33809, down 77 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.57%, up 0.05 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKYLE TETTINGADAM BALEYDAVE SANDSTROM(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 10-14, 2023)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
Overall inflation kept slowing in March, reaching a 5% year-to-year rate, falling from as high as 9% in June. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, remained above the Federal Reserve’s long-range target of 2%, but it was the lowest 12-month rate since May 2021. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs accounted for the bulk of a 0.1% CPI increase from February. Grocery prices dropped for the first time since September 2020, and gasoline receded nearly 5%. Excluding prices for volatile food and energy products, the core CPI rose 0.4% from February. The core rate rose to 5.6% from the year before, up from 5.5% in February.
Thursday
Inflation on the wholesale level sank 0.5% in March with the Producer Price Index declining for the second time in four months. Lower prices on goods – particularly gasoline – accounted for two-thirds of the drop in the index, but services also cost less overall. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the index rose 2.7% from March 2022, the lowest 12-month gain since the beginning of 2021 and down from 11.6% in March 2022. The core Producer Price Index – which excluded volatile prices for energy, food and trade services – rose 0.1% from February, the lowest since May 2020.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the ninth time in 10 weeks, reaching nearly the highest level since November 2021. Claims averaged 240,000 in the most recent reading from the Labor Department, down 35% from the average level dating back to 1967. Altogether, 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 1.7% from the week before but up from 1.7 million at the same time last year.
Friday
Lower gas prices helped fuel a 1% decline in retail sales in March, the fourth drop in five months. Of 13 categories, gas stations were among eight where sales fell in March. Lower prices meant gas stations took in less revenue than the month before. Other retailers with declining sales included home-and-garden centers, appliance stores and car dealerships. The Commerce Department reported total retail sales rose 2.9% from March 2022, with five categories reporting declines. Since February 2020, just before the COVID pandemic, retail sales have risen 31%; they’re up 13% after adjusting for inflation.
The Federal Reserve said a return to more seasonal weather in March accounted for a 0.4% rise in industrial production, the third consecutive increase. Output from utilities rose 8.4% after an unseasonably warm February. Production for mining operations and manufacturers declined in March. Manufacturing shrank in particular in building supplies, business equipment and durable consumer goods. Overall industrial production rose at a 0.2% annual pace through the first three months of 2023. Capacity utilization, a measure of potential inflation, ticked above its long-term average for the first time since December. Manufacturing and utilities were below their long-term levels while mining remained above normal.
A preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment suggested Americans are marginally more optimistic about the future, though they still worry about inflation. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan was up 27% from its all-time low in June but about 3% below where it was a year ago. An economist with the study said respondents acknowledged a recent slowing in the rate of price increases, but they raised their expectations of inflation a year from now to 4.6%, up from 3.6% in March. Consumers’ longer-range inflation forecast stayed around 3%.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12123, up 35 points or 0.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4138, up 33 points or 0.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33886, up 401 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.52%, up 0.23 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyDave Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (April 3-7, 2023)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
U.S. factories remained in a slump in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its manufacturing index suggested the sector contracted for the fifth month in a row, hitting its lowest reading since May 2020, amid the COVID pandemic lockdown. Based on past trends, the ISM said, the index suggested the gross domestic product sank in March at an annual rate of 0.9%.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined by 0.1% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate exceeding $1.8 billion. The pace was 5% ahead of the year before. Spending on residential construction, which accounts for nearly half of the total, fell by 0.6% from January and was down more than 5% from February 2022. Economists have blamed higher mortgage rates for dampening demand in housing.
Tuesday
Employers posted fewer job openings in February, but the labor market remained relatively tight. Postings dropped to 9.9 million, the lowest since May 2021, after reaching a record 12 million openings last March. Still, job openings outnumbered the 7 million just before the COVID pandemic and was 4 million more than the number of unemployed job seekers in February. Other signs of a stronger employment market: Layoffs and firings fell slightly, and slightly more people quit their jobs, a sign of worker confidence.
The Commerce Department reported a 0.7% decline in manufacturing orders in February, the third setback in four months. Demand for aircraft led the declines. Excluding the volatile transportation category, factory orders fell 0.3% from January. Compared to February 2022, total orders were up 3% and up 3.1% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, fell 0.1% for the month and were up 4.3% from the year before.
Wednesday
The U.S. services sector expanded in March, though at a slower rate, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index indicated the third month in a row of growth. Except for a setback in December, the service sector has expanded in 33 of the last 34 months. Based on surveys with purchasing managers, the index showed orders for services cooling while hiring conditions were mixed and supplier deliveries remained at the swiftest pace in 14 years. Overall, survey respondents expressed optimism about current business conditions.
The U.S. trade deficit in February grew to its widest gap in four months as exports shrank more than imports. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the deficit expanded nearly 3% to $70.5 billion. A 2.7% decline in exports was led by lower demand abroad for U.S.-produced pharmaceuticals, industrial supplies and cars. Imports fell 1.5%, led by cell phones, cars and trucks. The trade deficit detracts from economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product.
Thursday
After the Labor Department updated calculation methods to better reflect seasonal fluctuations, the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in nine weeks. Average claims reached 237,750 in the week ended April 1, up 11% from the year before and down 35% from the 56-year average. Total claims fell less than 1% in the latest week to 1.9 million, up from 1.7 million at the same time last year.
Friday
U.S. employers continued to add jobs in March but at the slowest pace in more than two years. The jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 236,000 more jobs in March, down from the six-month average of 334,000 and the lowest since a decline in December 2020. The payroll count rose 2.2% above its level in February 2020, just before the COVID pandemic. The leisure and hospitality industry accounted for 30% of the gain in March, although making up less than 10% of total U.S. employment. Average hourly wages rose 4.2% from the year before, the smallest gain since June 2021. The unemployment rate was 3.5%, down from 3.6% in February. Unemployment has been hovering near 54-year lows since early last year.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12088, down 134 points or 1.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4105, down 4 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33485, up 211 points or 0.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.29%, down 0.21 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingTom PappenfusKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Reuben Neese)Week in Review (March 27-31, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
The annual gain in housing prices slipped to 3.8% in January, the 10th consecutive deceleration since cresting at a record 20.8% last March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. An analyst with the longstanding report said higher mortgage rates and a weaker economy continued to soften housing market conditions and should remain as head winds to further lower prices.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in March on slightly improved expectations. But the business research group said expectations remained below a level that often signals economic recession within the next year. Expectations have been below that level 12 of the last 13 months. The survey-based index found less confidence in current economic conditions. Consumer expectations for near-term inflation suggested a dampening effect on spending.
Wednesday
Three months of data suggests the housing market is turning a corner, according to the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s index on pending home sales rose 0.8% in February for a third consecutive increase. The Realtors said because figures for home sales, pending sales and contracts for new construction have risen three months in a row, “the housing sector’s contraction is coming to an end.” The group cited recent improvements in mortgage rates, which it said especially helped affordable housing markets in the Midwest and South. Compared to the year before, pending sales were down 21%.
Thursday
The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was down from 2.7% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 1%, instead of the earlier estimate of 1.4%. Adjusted for inflation, the economy advanced 5.1% from its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 5.7% increase from the fourth quarter of 2021, down from 6.3% in the third quarter and 6.6% in the second quarter.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in three weeks but was still 46% below the all-time rolling average for new claims. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, down nearly 2% from the week before but up more than 7% from its level the year before, when special pandemic relief programs had expired.
Friday
By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, slightly below the 0.3% gain in personal income. Adjusted for inflation, though, personal expenditures declined 0.1% in March, the third drop in four months, suggesting a slowing in the economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also reported the fifth consecutive increase in personal savings – both in amount and as a percent of disposable income. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5% increase from February 2022 – the lowest rate since September 2021. Inflation had risen to 7% in June, the highest in four decades. The Fed’s long-range target is 2%.
Another sign of economic slowdown was the first setback in four months for consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey found consumers souring both on current conditions and future expectations. The sentiment index slipped to 62 from a reading of 67 in February. It stood at 59.4 the year before. A university economist said consumers are signaling they’re expecting a recession. Consumer projections of near-term inflation were the lowest in nearly two years, and long-run expectations remained at 2.9% for the fourth month in a row.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12222, up 398 points or 3.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4109, up 138 points or 3.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33273, up 1036 points or 3.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.50%, up 0.12 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildAdam Baley(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (March 20-24, 2023)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The annual rate of existing home sales rose 14.5% to nearly 4.6 million in February, the first increase after 12 consecutive declines. Still, the pace was 23% slower than the year before, as higher mortgage rates have stifled activity. The National Association of Realtors said improved sales in February were most noticeable where mortgage rates and home prices softened and jobs were growing. Inventories remained near record lows, with only 2.6 months supply. The median sales price was $363,000, down 0.2% from the year before, the first time the year-to-year price fell in nearly 11 years.
Wednesday
The Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making panel of the Federal Reserve Board, announced another 0.25 percentage point raise in the short-term fed funds rate. It was the ninth increase in the rate in the last year, raising it from nearly nothing to more than 4.5% in order to cool the overall economy and control inflation. The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to a long-range inflation rate of 2%. The broadly based Consumer Price Index reached 6% in February, having dropped from more than 9% in June. A word cloud of the Fed’s statement emphasizes words used by their frequency.
Thursday
Labor market conditions showed continued strength, with the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims remaining 47% below the 56-year average. The indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go fell for the second week in a row, according to the Labor Department. Total claims dropped 3% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was up 4% from the same time the year before.
The Commerce Department said new home sales rose 1% in February from the January pace but were 19% behind where they were the year before. A joint announcement with the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported an annual sales rate of 640,000 new houses, marking the 10th month in a row below the pre-pandemic mark of 690,000. The median sales price rose to $438,200, a 2.5% increase from February 2022. The year-to-year median price declined in January for the first time since August 2020.
Friday
Demand for manufactured items showed overall resilience in February despite the third decline in durable goods orders in four months. Drops in orders for commercial aircraft and automotive products brought down the monthly headline figure from the Commerce Department, as total orders fell 1%. However, orders were unchanged from January when excluding volatile demand for transportation equipment. Compared to the year before, overall orders rose 2% while orders excluding transportation rose 1.9%. Orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investments, increased for the second month in a row and were up 4.3% from February 2022.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11824, up 193 points or 1.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3963, up 47 points or 1.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 32231, up 369 points or 1.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.38%, down 0.02 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (March 13-17, 2023)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The broadest measure of inflation continued narrowing in February but remained far above the 2% long-range target of the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index rose 6% from February 2022, unadjusted for inflation. That was down from 6.4% in January and the lowest rate since September 2021. The annual rate decelerated for the eighth month in a row after exceeding 9% last June. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs accounted for 70% of the monthly gain in the price index while higher food costs offset lower prices overall. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest rate since December 2021.
Wednesday
Signs of moderation appeared in wholesale inflation numbers for February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index sank 0.1% from January, the second contraction in three months. Prices for goods led the decline, but service costs also went down. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% from January. Year to year, unadjusted for inflation, the headline PPI rose 4.6% in February, slowing for the eighth month in a row, down from 11.6% last March. The core PPI rose 4.4% from the year before, unchanged from January.
U.S. consumer spending dipped in February, as retail sales fell 0.4%, according to the Commerce Department. That was down from a gain of 3.2% in January. Sales declined in eight of 13 retail categories, led by bars and restaurants, furniture stores, car dealers and gas stations. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales slipped by 0.8% in February, the third decline in four months. Economists watch retail sales for signs of consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of the gross domestic product.
Thursday
The pace in housing starts rose 9.8% in February, though it was down 18% from the year earlier and 16% below the pace just before the pandemic. The Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that multi-family residences continued to outpace single-family structures. The disparity was particularly noticeable in the pace of housing under construction, where single-family units have been dropping for eight months straight. Though building permits were down from February 2022, they were ahead of the pre-pandemic level and close to their level in early 2007.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in four weeks, reaching 47% below the 56-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to suggest a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 2 million individuals were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, up 4% from the week before and up 2% from the year before that.
Friday
U.S. industrial output was unchanged in February after a slight gain in January, its first expansion in four months. Total production declined 0.2% from the year before. The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production increased slightly for the second month in a row but was down 1% from February 2022. Capacity utilization—considered a leading indicator of inflation—also was unchanged from January and remained below the 50-year average for the fourth month in a row.
Both current economic conditions and expectations scored lower in a preliminary March reading of consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan said its longstanding survey showed consumers downgrading the economy for the first time in four months–mostly among respondents who were young with low levels of education and income. Expectations for inflation edged down from recent months, but the survey director said sentiment should remain volatile.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.3% in February, with only stock prices and building permits slightly offsetting negative or flat contributions from eight other components. The decline was the 11th in a row for the index, which fell 3.6% since August, vs. a 3% setback over the previous six months. The business research group said rising interest rates and tightening consumer spending are likely to send the economy into a recession “in the near term.”
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11631, up 492 points or 4.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3917, up 55 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 31859, down 51 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.40%, down 0.30 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (March 6-10, 2023)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
A drop in commercial aircraft demand sent U.S. factory orders lower in January for the second time in three months. The Commerce Department said orders overall declined 1.6% from December and were 4.3% ahead of their level the year before. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand rose 1.2% from the month before and was up 4.3% from January 2022. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% for the month and 5.5% from the year before.
Tuesday
The Federal Reserve said credit card debt rose at an annual pace of 11.1% in January, far swifter than the overall 3.7% annualized increase in consumer debt outstanding. Measured year to year, credit card debt rose 15.6% from January 2022, the sixth month in a row to exceed 15%. Sustained use of credit cards suggests consumers continued spending at higher levels despite Fed interest rate increases aimed at weakening demand to help lower decades-high inflation.
Wednesday
The U.S. trade deficit widened by 1.6% to $68.3 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. During the month, exports rose by 3.4%, led by pharmaceuticals and autos, offset by a decline in service exports such as travel. Meanwhile, imports rose 3% from December, driven by automotive goods, cell phones and travel services. Compared to January 2022, the trade gap narrowed by 22% as exports rose 13% and imports grew 3.5%. Economists consider trade deficits a detraction from overall economic growth.
U.S. employers posted 10.8 million job openings in January, down from an upwardly revised 11.2 million in December. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply as the number of unemployed workers seeking work in January reached 5.7 million, according to earlier reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The biggest declines in job postings in January were at construction companies, hotels and restaurants, and financial and insurance companies. The number and rate of layoffs increased, while quits – a measure of worker confidence – declined.
Thursday
The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, though it remained 46% below its average since 1967. Total claims for the latest week declined 2% from the week before to 1.9 million. That was just above the mark from the year before and down from 20.8 million at the same time in 2021.
Friday
Employers added 311,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate edged up from its lowest level since 1969. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly jobs report, combining payroll data and household surveys, showed the robust pace of hiring slowing from the six-month average of 336,000 jobs per month and the 12-month average of 362,000. The leisure and hospitality industry accounted for about a third of the jobs gain in February but remained more than 400,000 (2%) behind its level just before the pandemic. Overall payrolls were up 3 million jobs (2%) from February 2020. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.4% in January with a rise in the number of workers losing jobs or completing temporary positions.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11139, down 550 points or 4.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3862, down 184 points or 4.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 31910, down 1481 points or 4.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.70%, down 0.27 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesDave Sandstrom(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Feb. 27-March 3, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 4.5% in January. A drop in commercial aircraft orders accounted for the bulk of the decline, which was the biggest setback since April 2020. Excluding the volatile transportation industry, demand for long-lasting manufactured items rose 0.7% from December and was up 2.6% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.8% from December and 5.3% from January 2022.
Commitments to home ownership rose again in January, according to the pending home sales index of the National Association of Realtors. The trade group said demand increased 8% from December, up for the second straight month following six consecutive declines. The index was 24% below its level in January 2022. The Realtors cited lower mortgage rates and strong employment for the two-month revival but forecast that full-year sales would fall 11% in 2023 to about 4.5 million existing houses. The association said the median sales price should decline 1.6% this year to $380,100.
Tuesday
Housing prices continued to weaken in December amid higher mortgage rates and concerns of recession, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Compared to the year before, the index rose 5.8%, the lowest gain since July 2020. The price increase has been dropping every month since last March, when it peaked at 20.8%. An analyst for S&P said macroeconomic conditions should continue to hamper demand for home buying and price gains should continue to decelerate.
The Conference Board reported another decline in its consumer confidence index in February, the second drop in a row. Consumers had a slightly higher opinion of current economic conditions because of a robust job market, the business research group said, but expectations remained below a level associated with recessions for the 11th time in 12 months. The group said survey results showed diminished expectations for inflation at the same time that fewer consumers were planning on big-ticket purchases or vacations.
Wednesday
The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index showed manufacturers continuing to ease up on production and hiring to try to keep pace with weaker demand. The group also said the purchasing managers it surveyed anticipated a revival in business activity in the second half of the year.
The annual pace of construction spending fell in January, the second month in a row, the Commerce Department reported. Spending on residential construction, which makes up nearly half of all spending, declined for the eighth consecutive month. Total construction spending was up 5.7% from the year before, but residential outlays were down 3.8%. Public construction spending dipped nearly 1% for the month but was up 11.1% from January 2022.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the third week in a row but remained historically low — 48% below the 56-year average, signifying the strong job market. The Labor Department also reported that total jobless claims declined 1% in the latest week to just below 2 million, slightly lower than the year before and down from more than 18.5 million at the same time in 2021.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 3%. The rate resulted from the annual pace of output rising 3.1% in the last four months of the year while hours worked rose 1.4%. Productivity declined 1.8% in the last four quarters, and the annual average productivity dropped 1.7% for 2022, the biggest setback since 1974. The average productivity rate since 1948 has been 2.1%.
Friday
The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 2nd month in a row at about the same pace as January. The Institute for Supply Management said its survey of purchasing managers found supply deliveries to be at the swiftest pace since 2009 because of improvements in capacity and logistics. Companies interviewed cited high but easing prices, tighter profit margins and some job cuts.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11689, up 294 points or 2.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4045, up 75 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33390, up 573 points or 1.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.96%, up 0.02 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyTom Pappenfus(with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang)Week in Review (Feb. 20-24, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets closed for Presidents Day
Tuesday
The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales slowed in January for the 12th month in a row. The annual sales rate fell to 4 million houses, down less than 1% from December’s pace but 37% below its level of 6.3 million in January 2022. The trade association contended that sales have bottomed out, citing growth in places with lower home values. Inventories rose slightly from December but remained less than half the level considered sustainable to balance supply and demand. The median sales price, $359,000, was up about 1% from the year before, marking the 131st consecutive year-to-year gain.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the second week in a row following nine consecutive declines. The level was 48% below the 56-year average, according to new Labor Department data. The level returned to where it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Barely 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, just below the year-earlier level but down from nearly 20 million claims at the same time in 2021.
The U.S. economy rose slightly less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product expanding at a 2.7% annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 1.4% from October through December, down from an initial estimate of 2.1%. Business investments, particularly in software, were stronger than initially estimated. Imports, which offset economic growth, declined less than estimated. For all of 2021, the economy grew by 0.9%, adjusting for inflation. It was up 6.3% from its peak just before the pandemic.
Friday
The Commerce Department said new home sales rose in January to an annual rate of 670,000 houses. That was up 7% from December’s rate but 19% behind the 831,000-house pace in January 2022. The median price for a new house was $427,500, down nearly 1% from the year before, marking the first time since August 2020 that the year-to-year comparison declined. The number of new houses for sale in January fell for the fourth month in a row.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed consumer spending rising in January for the first time in three months and at the highest rate since the March 2021 federal stimulus payment. Expenditures increased 1.8% while personal income rose 0.6%. After adjusting for inflation and taxes, January was the fourth month in a row for income to outpace spending. As a result, the personal saving rate rose for the fourth month straight. The Federal Reserve’s main gauge of inflation stayed well above its long-range target of 2%. The year-to-year inflation rate hit 5.4% after hitting 5.3% in December, which was down from a 41-year high of 7% in June.
A precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, ticked up for the third month in a row. The University of Michigan said its survey-based index remained closer to its all-time low in June than to the historical average. Improved outlooks toward current economic conditions mostly boosted overall sentiment, the university said, especially among wealthier stockholders. Ongoing uncertainty over inflation prompted a forecast of unstable expectations for the near future.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11395, down 392 points or 3.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3970, down 109 points or 2.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 32817, down 1010 points or 3.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.95%, up 0.12 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildKendall Bauer(with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang)Week in Review (Feb. 13-17, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The broadest measure of U.S. inflation showed the pace continued to ease in January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose 6.4% from January 2022. The rate was down for the seventh month in a row after hitting a 41-year high of 9.1% in June, but it was still far above the Federal Reserve’s long-range target of 2%. Shelter costs accounted for about half of the 0.5% increase in the index from December. Food and energy prices also contributed to the monthly gain. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 5.6% from the year before, the fourth monthly decline after a recent peak of 6.6% in September.
Wednesday
Suggesting revived consumer demand, retail sales rose 3% in January, the first increase in three months. The Commerce Department reported that all 13 major retail categories increased revenue in January, led by bars and restaurants and car dealerships. Only electronics and appliance stores posted a decline from the year before, when sales overall rose more than 6%. Since January 2022, sales at bars and restaurants jumped 25%. Total retail sales adjusted for inflation also rose for the first time in three months but remained below the peak set last March.
The Federal Reserve reported no change in industrial production in January as utilities suffered from an unseasonably warm month following an unseasonably cold December. The falloff in utilities output offset the first gains in three months from both manufacturing and mining. Overall industrial output has not had a monthly gain since September. Industries’ capacity utilization rate fell for the fourth month in a row and for the second consecutive month stayed below the 50-year average. High capacity rates can indicate rising inflation.
Thursday
The Commerce Department showed continued weakening in housing in January, as the annual rate of building permits and housing starts trended lower, below pre-pandemic levels. Permits, which indicate plans for future construction, were 8% under where they were in February 2020, with authorizations for single-family housing slowing for the 11th month in a row. Housing starts slipped more than 4% from December, with new single-family construction down 19% from its pre-pandemic pace and 36% behind December 2020, which was the highest point since before the financial crisis. The annual rate of houses under construction also declined slightly in January but remained near record levels.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in 10 weeks. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average stayed 49% below the 56-year average and was near its all-time low, reached last April. Total jobless claims rose less than 1% from the week before to 1.9 million, compared to nearly 2.1 million the year before and 18.9 million claims at the same time in 2021.
Inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.7% in January, reversing a slight decline in December. Prices for goods gained more than those for services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Producer Price Index increased 6% from the year before, the slowest pace since March 2021, down from a peak of 11.7% last March. The core PPI, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.6% for the month and 4.5% from the year before, also the lowest 12-month gain in nearly two years.
Friday
U.S. economic growth slowed in January, though not as much as in December. Still, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators suggests a recession in 2023. The index was down 3.6% in the latest six months, compared to a 2.4% contraction in the six months prior. The business research group said indicators led by the yield curve signal a downturn this year despite “robust” numbers on employment and personal income. Among the factors it said should contribute to a recession are high inflation, rising interest rates and weaker consumer spending.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11787, up 69 points or 0.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4079, down 11 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33827, down 42 points or 0.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.83%, up 0.08 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromMike Hoelzl(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy)Week in Review (Feb. 6-10, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
The U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record $948 billion in 2022, 12% wider than in 2021, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. In December alone, the gap grew more than 10% as exports shrank, led by declines of industrial materials and consumer goods. Imports rose in December, with U.S. consumers buying more imported automobiles and cell phones. As a share of the overall economy, the trade deficit was 3.7% of gross domestic product in 2022, up from 3.6% in 2021.
In another sign that economic growth may be slowing, the Federal Reserve reported a lower increase in consumer credit card debt outstanding in December. So-called revolving debt rose at a 7.3% annual rate in December, down from nearly 16% in November and the slowest in 17 months. The pace of consumer credit debt overall – including student loans and automotive financing – rose 2.9% in December. With consumer spending driving about two-thirds of the gross domestic product, credit card debt can be considered a gauge of spending confidence. The level in December was $96 billion or 9% above its pre-pandemic peak.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the ninth week in a row, reaching the lowest level since April. Data from the Labor Department showed the latest four-week average was 49% below the all-time average, dating back to 1967. As an early measure of layoff trends, new jobless claims have suggested employers’ reluctance to let workers go in a tight labor market. Total claims rose 2.7% from the week before to 1.9 million, which was 13% lower than the year before and less than one-tenth the total at the same time in 2021.
Friday
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment edged up from January as well as the year before, but overall it was 22% below its average since 1978. Short-term inflation continued to worry consumers as well as a concern that higher unemployment may lie ahead. University researchers said their survey results suggest consumers will be cautious in coming months.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11718, down 289 points or 2.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4090, down 46 points or 1.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33869, down 57 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.74%, up 0.21 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesPaige Radke(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
In the face of rising mortgage rates and a slowing economy, home prices continued to decline in November. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, the year-to-year increase in prices decelerated for the eighth month in a row, dropping to a 7.7% gain in November, down from a record peak of nearly 21% in March. A spokesman for the index said further interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of recession should put a further damper on home prices.
The Conference Board said lower opinions of current economic conditions sent the consumer confidence index down in January. The business research group said survey responses suggested the U.S. will suffer a recession within the year. It said confidence had dropped mostly among younger households with lower incomes. At the same time, overall expectations for incomes, purchases and inflation held relatively steady from December.
Wednesday
The manufacturing sector contracted in January for the third month in a row, the Institute for Supply Management reported. The trade group said its index, based on surveys of industry purchasing managers, reflected declining output trying to match up with nine months of weakening demand. At the same time, the employment component grew for the second straight month with managers saying they want to be prepared for a comeback in orders in the second half of the year.
The gap between the number of job openings and unemployed job seekers reached a record high of 5.3 million in December, the most in five months, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Employers posted 11 million job openings in December, up from 10.4 million in November, led by hotels and restaurants, retailers and construction companies. In December, nearly 4.1 million workers quit their jobs, down marginally for the third time in four months but still indicating worker confidence in finding new positions.
Housing led a 0.4% decrease in construction spending in December. A Commerce Department report showed it was the first decline in four months. Residential expenditures, which make up about half of all spending, dropped off for the month but were up almost 2% from the year before. Government spending on construction fell 0.4% in December but was up 12% from December 2021.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the eighth week in a row, reaching its lowest level since last May. Reflecting employer resistance to letting go of workers in a historically tight labor market, the moving average was 48% below the average since records began in 1967. The Labor Department said the total number of Americans claiming jobless benefits declined 2% from the week before to 1.9 million, down from 2.2 million the year before, which was down from 18.5 million at the same time in 2021.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 3% in the fourth quarter, the swiftest pace in a year. The productivity rate resulted from rises of 3.5% in output and 0.5% in hours worked. Although recent quarters suggest productivity is increasing, on average, it sank 1.3% for all of 2022, the poorest showing since 1974. Unit labor costs rose 5.7% in 2022, the most in 40 years.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.9% in December, the fourth increase in five months, largely because of a rebound in orders for commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation equipment, orders sank 1.2% from November and were up 10.3% from the year before. A proxy for business investments fell 0.1% for the month and was up 8.3% from its year-earlier level.
Friday
The U.S. labor market strengthened in January after months of slowing. Employers added 517,000 jobs, according to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau revised November and December reports to show that employers added 71,000 more jobs in those months than previously reported. Hiring rose by the most in six months, exceeding the 2022 monthly average of 401,000. Leisure and hospitality employers added the bulk of jobs in January but were still 495,000 or 2.9% lower than their pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969. Despite signs of a tightening job market, the 12-month raise in average hourly wages decelerated for the seventh time in nine months, dropping to 4.4% from a recent high of 5.9% last May.
The U.S. services sector grew again in January after contracting in December. An index from the Institute for Supply Management showed new orders rising dramatically from the month before. The trade group said its surveys of purchasing and supply managers provided mixed perspectives, with an overall positive outlook. Survey respondents cited improved capacity and logistics in addition to increased demand.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 12007, up 385 points or 3.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4136, up 66 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33926, down 52 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.53%, up 0.01 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromTom Pappenfus(with Jason Scuglik and Joel Dresang)Week in Review (Jan. 23-27)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined again in December, further signaling a near-term recession. The business research group said its gauge fell 1% from November, following a 1.1% drop from October. Over the last half of 2022, the index fell 4.2%, steepening from a 1.9% decline in the first six months of the year. Although measures of employment and personal income appeared “robust,” the group said, weakness in manufacturing, housing construction and financial markets suggest recession. The Conference Board forecast a revival in the economy toward the end of the year.
Tuesday
No major releases
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders rose 5.6% in December for the fourth gain in five months. A surge in aircraft orders – both commercial and military – boosted the manufacturing indicator after it declined 1.1% in November. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders declined slightly in December for the second time in four months. Compared to December 2021, orders for long-lasting factory goods rose more than 10%. Excluding transportation equipment, demand rose 6% from the year before. A proxy for business investment gained 8% from December 2021.
The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.9% in the fourth quarter, down from a 3.2% rate in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis cited consumer spending, business inventories and commercial investments in intellectual property among the contributors to the boost in gross domestic product. After setbacks in the first two quarters of 2022, GDP rose 1% from the year before, adjusted for inflation. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, rose 5.5% from the year before, the lowest in five quarters. The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, was up 4.7% from the end of 2021, its slowest rate in a year.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the seventh week in a row to its lowest level since early May. The average was 46% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 2.3 million the year before and 19 million and the same time in 2021.
The Commerce Department reported a 2.3% gain in the annual rate of new home sales in December. Despite the increase, sales were down 27% from the year before and 11% below where they were just before the pandemic. The median sales price rose 8% from the year before to $442,100. In 2022, 41% of new homes were sold at $500,000 or more, compared to 30% in 2021.
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending fell 0.2% in December, the second consecutive slowdown for a chief measure of economic growth. The decline was 0.3% when adjusted for inflation and suggest individuals have been giving pause to spending amid high inflation and rising interest rates. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of GDP. The personal saving rate rose for the third month in a row. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 5% from December 2021, the slightest incline in 15 months. The rate remained far above the long-range Fed target of 2% inflation, but it was down from 7% in June, a 40-year high.
Though it stayed near a record low, consumer sentiment improved in January for the second month in a row. The longstanding survey-based index from the University of Michigan showed attitudes toward current conditions getting a big boost from perceptions of strong incomes and easing inflation. Expectations for inflation fell for the fourth month in a row. A university economist warned that consumer sentiment – considered a precursor for consumer spending – suffered measurably during debt ceiling dust-ups in Congress in 2013 and 2011.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose in December for the first time in seven months. The trade group said a recent decline in mortgage rates helped stabilize the market and the low point in sales activity has likely passed. The index rose 2.5% from its November reading but was down 34% from the year before. The Realtors said steady job gains should drive housing sales with conventional mortgage rates hovering between 5.5% and 6.5%.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11622, up 481 points or 4.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4071, up 98 points or 2.5% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33978, up 603 points or 1.8% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.52%, up 0.04 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyPaige Radke(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Jan. 16-20, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
In another sign of slowing inflation, the Producer Price Index declined 0.5% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the first monthly slip in wholesale inflation since August and brought the year-to-year measure to 6.2%, the lowest since March 2021. For the month, prices declined for goods and rose slightly for services. Excluding volatile food, energy and trade services prices, the core PPI rose 0.1% from December, its weakest move since November 2020.
The Commerce Department said retail sales declined in December for the second month in a row and the third time in four months. The drop-off was widespread across retail categories, including bars and restaurants, but particularly noticeable among car dealers and furniture stores, which are especially vulnerable to rising interest rates. Only building supply centers and sporting goods stores had more sales in December. Adjusting for inflation, retail sales were up 12% since the onset of the pandemic in February 2020.
Industrial production also declined in December for the second straight month. The Federal Reserve Board said output from factories, mines and utilities fell 0.7% from November, which was 0.6% lower than October. Manufacturing production fell broadly across sectors with only defense and space equipment markets gaining. Industries’ capacity utilization rate – an indicator of inflation – sank for the third month in a row, dipping to its lowest level in a year and below its 50-year average for the second consecutive month.
Thursday
The pace of U.S. housing starts and building permits continued to slow in December. Both activities dipped below pre-pandemic levels as higher interest rates and lower demand have discouraged developers and builders. The Commerce Department said the annual pace of permits declined nearly 2% from November and was down 30% from December 2021. Starts were down more than 1% from the month before and down 22% from the year before. As new construction slowed, completions outpaced starts, and the level of houses under construction hit a record high, based on data going back to 1970.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the sixth week in a row to its lowest level since May. An indicator of employers’ reluctance to let workers go, the moving average was 44% below the average since 1967, according to Labor Department data. Meanwhile, total claims for jobless benefits rose 9% from the week before to 1.9 million. That was down from 2.3 million the year before and 16.9 million the year before that.
Friday
Full-year existing home sales reached just above 5 million, a 18% drop from 2021, which had been the highest level since 2006. The National Association of Realtors said limited supply and high mortgage rates slowed sales by 1.5% from November, the 11th decline in a row. But the trade group also said it expected sales to pick up soon because inventories were up about 10% from the year before and mortgage rates have been receding since a recent peak above 7% for a traditional loan in November. The median sales price rose 2.3% from the year before to $366,900, the 130th consecutive year-to-year gain.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11140, up 61 points or 0.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3972, down 27 points or 0.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33374, down 928 points or 2.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.48%, down 0.03 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromPaige Radke(with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Jan. 9-13, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Credit card debt rose to a record $1.18 trillion in November, a sign that consumers remain confident spending amid rising interest rates and decades-high inflation. The Federal Reserve Board reported that overall consumer credit outstanding, including vehicle financing and student loans, rose at an annual rate of 7.1% from October. Revolving credit card debt rose at a 16.9% annual pace, up from 10.3% in October and 8.2% in September. Consumer spending drives about 70% of U.S. economic activity and has been expected to slow as the Fed tries to tamp down inflation.
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
No major announcements
Thursday
The broadest measure of inflation showed prices rising at the slowest annual pace since October 2021. The Consumer Price Index rose 6.5% in the 12 months since December 2021. Down for the sixth month in a row since reaching a 40-year high of 9% in June, the rate is still well above the Fed’s long-range target of 2%. Lower prices for gasoline and airline travel helped slow both the one-year and one-month inflation rates overall, but they offset increased costs for food and shelter. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 5.7% from December 2021, the lowest in a year.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row, staying 42% below the long-term average and hitting its lowest point since mid-October. The Labor Department said 1.7 million Americans claimed jobless benefits the week after Christmas, up 8% from the week before but down from 2.1 million the year before, vs. 19.4 million the year before that.
Friday
A preliminary January reading of consumer sentiment suggested attitudes continuing to brighten, though they’re still historically low. The University of Michigan said its longstanding index rose to 64.6 mid-month, up from 59.7 in December and down from 67.2 in January 2022. The survey-based index showed improvements both in expectations and in assessments of current conditions. Sentiment toward personal finances was the highest in eight months amid rising incomes and lower inflation. Expectations for inflation eased a bit but remained fraught with uncertainty.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11079, up 510 points or 4.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3999, up 104 points or 2.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34303, up 672 points or 2.0% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.51%, down 0.06 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingArt RothschildKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Jan. 2-6, 2023)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
Markets and government offices closed
Tuesday
Despite a decline in the residential sector, U.S. construction spending rose in November for the second time in four months. The Commerce Department said construction expenditures rose 0.2% from October to an annual rate of $1.8 trillion, not far from the all-time peak in July, unadjusted for inflation. Spending on residential construction fell 0.5% from the October rate because of a 3% drop in expenditures on single-family home construction.
Wednesday
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled contraction in December for the second month in a row. Based on surveys of purchasing managers, the index showed demand weakening and production falling, but it also suggested ongoing improvements in supply chains and a rebound in hiring. The trade group said it expects manufacturing to continue to flounder at least through the first quarter.
The U.S. labor market still exhibited strength in November as employers posted nearly 10.5 million job openings, far outnumbering the 6 million workers seeking a position. Postings declined marginally from October but were down for the sixth time in eight months following a record 11.9 million openings in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said nearly 4.2 million workers quit their jobs in November, which suggests they’re confident of finding better positions. In comparison, before the COVID pandemic, the highest number of quits was 3.6 million.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, reaching its lowest level since mid-October. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average of new filings down 42% from the 55-year average, although it was 11% higher than just prior to the pandemic. In total, 1.6 million Americans were claiming unemployment benefits in the latest week, down 1% from the week before and down from 1.9 million the year before.
In a sign of global economic slowdown, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 21% in November. The $61.5 billion deficit, which detracts from gross domestic product, resulted from the value of imports declining at a faster rate than exports. Imports were down 6.4% from October, as U.S. consumption weakened for items such as cell phones, automobiles and industrial supplies. Exports fell 2%, led by industrial supplies, pharmaceutical preparations and commercial aircraft. Year to year, the trade gap widened nearly 16%.
Friday
U.S. employers added 223,000 jobs in December, lower than the monthly average for 2022 (375,000) and 2021 (562,000), but still a sign of a steady labor market. The leisure and hospitality industry led in hiring, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though it’s still more than 900,000 jobs (5.5%) shy of its mark just before the pandemic. Meanwhile, total employment edged 0.8% or 1.2 million jobs higher than in February 2020. Temporary help jobs – often a harbinger of overall hiring trends – fell for the fifth month in a row. The average hourly wage rose 4.6% from December 2021, the latest in a decline from a recent peak of 5.6% in May. The same report showed the unemployment rate dropping to 3.5% – the same as its mark at the outset of the pandemic.
The U.S. services sector contracted in December, the first setback since May 2020, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed both new orders and employment receding for the month. Purchasing managers surveyed blamed interest rates and inflation for a slowdown in demand. At managers also cited continued improvements in deliveries.
A report from the Commerce Department showed manufacturing orders declining in November for the first time in three months but only the second time in 14 months. The value of orders fell 1.8% from October and was 12% ahead of November 2021. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders dropped 0.8% for the month and rose 11% from November 2021. A proxy for business investments was up 9% from the year before.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 10569, up 103 points or 1.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3895, up 56 points or 1.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33630, up 483 points or 1.5% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.57%, down 0.31 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingTom PappenfusPaige Radkewith Jason ScuglikWeek in Review (Dec. 26-30, 2022)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Housing inflation continued to slow in October. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index rose 9.2% from its year-earlier measure. It was the seventh consecutive deceleration from a record high of nearly 21% in March. An economist with the Case-Shiller index said higher mortgage rates, fueled by Federal Reserve interest rate increases, remains a head wind for home prices.
Wednesday
The National Association of Realtors also blamed higher interest rates for a 4% decline in its pending home sales index. The drop was the sixth in the row for the index, which was down 38% from the year before and stood at the second lowest level in 20 years.https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/pending-home-sales-slid-4-0-in-november
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row, suggesting ongoing strength in the labor market. The measure of employers’ willingness to let workers go was 40% below its 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. Total claims numbered more than 1.6 million, up 6% from the week before but down from 2.2 million the year before and 20.4 million at the same time in 2020.
Friday
No major releases
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 10466, down 31 points or 0.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3840, down 5 points or 0.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33148, down 56 points or 0.2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.88%, up 0.13 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingAdam BaleyMike Hoelzlwith Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason ScuglikWeek in Review (Dec. 19-23, 2022)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
As mortgage rates have risen amid Federal Reserve Board efforts to restrict lending, the pace of building permits and housing starts slowed dramatically in November. The Commerce Department said new construction dipped 0.5% from the annual rate in October and was down 16% from November 2021. Starts for single-family units hit the lowest point since May 2020. Permits were 22% off the year-ago pace, with single-family authorizations also at a two-and-a-half-year low. Despite the drop in permits and starts, housing under construction remained at the highest level in 52 years of data.
Wednesday
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in December for the first time in three months, but expectations remained at a level suggesting economic recession. The business research group said attitudes rose toward both current conditions and what may be ahead. Price drops in gasoline helped lower inflation expectations to their lowest point in 15 months.
Existing home sales declined 7.7% in November to an annual rate of 4.1 million houses, down 35% from the year before, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales pace fell for the 10th month in a row. The trade group said higher mortgage rates discouraged both buyers and sellers, with inventories shrinking for the fourth month near a record low. The median sales price of $370,700 was up 3.5% from November 2020, marking the 129th consecutive year-to-year increase.
Thursday
The U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022, according to a final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economic growth rate was up from 2.9% in the preliminary report as consumer spending rose at a faster pace than initially estimated. Correcting for inflation, the economy grew 2% from the year before and was 4% above its pre-COVID peak. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 4.3% increase since the third quarter of 2021, more than double the Fed’s long-range target of 2%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row after four consecutive gains. Data from the Labor Department showed the gauge of employers’ willingness to dispose of workers at 4o% below the long-term average. Total jobless claims dropped 3% in the latest week to 1.5 million, down from 2.1 million the year before and 21 million the year before that.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators declined 1% in November, with stock prices making the only positive contribution for the month. The index dropped 3.7% since May, as opposed to a 0.8% decrease in the previous six months. The business research group said the Federal Reserve Board’s interest rate cuts are slowing the economy, especially in housing, and likely will result in a recession spanning from early through mid-2023.
Friday
By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending gained 0.1% in November, the smallest of four consecutive increases. Adjusted for inflation, spending was unchanged from October as consumers bought fewer goods but slightly more services. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income rose 0.4% in November, which meant spending didn’t outpace income for the first time in four months. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5.5% increase from November 2021 – the lowest in 13 months.
The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods sank 2.1% in November, the first decrease in four months. The indicator for manufacturing demand was up 10.5% from November 2021. Commercial aircraft and automotive led the monthly decline. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% from October and were nearly 7% above their year-ago level. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.2% for the month and were up 8.8% from the year before.
The Commerce Department said the annual pace of new home sales rose 5.8% in November, though it still was down 8.5% from the year before. The volatile indicator was below its pre-COVID pace for the eighth month in a row with only the Midwest increasing sales for November. The median price rose 9.5% from the year before to $471,200.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose in December as households felt less pressure from inflation. Although the index reading was up 5% from November, it was down 15% from the year before. Expectations were down 12% from the December 2021 index while opinions toward current conditions fell 20% from the year before. The longstanding survey showed consumers’ inflation expectations at the lowest level in 18 months.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 10498, down 208 points or 1.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3845, down 7 points or 0.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33205, up 284 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.75%, up 0.27 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowBob LandaasKyle TettingArt RothschildKendall Bauer(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)Week in Review (Dec. 12-16, 2022)Significant Economic Indicators & Reports###### Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
The broadest measure of inflation continued to ease in November, declining on a year-to-year rate for the fifth month in a row. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index added 0.1% from October and was up 7.1% from November 2021 after a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Inflation remained near 1982 levels and far above the Federal Reserve Board’s long-range target of 2%. Shelter costs accounted for most of the monthly increase while the price of gasoline got cheaper. Excluding volatile costs for energy and food, the core 12-month inflation rate was 6%, a second monthly decline since hitting a 40-year high of 6.6% in September.
Wednesday
The policy-making committee of the Federal Reserve Board announced a unanimous decision to raise short-term interest rates another half a percentage point. It was the Fed’s seventh hike this year in its attempt to lower economic demand and ease inflation. The half-point increase was down from recent moves of three-quarters, but the Federal Open Market Committee said it expects more raises ahead.
Thursday
The Commerce Department reported a 0.6% decline in retail sales in November, following a 1.3% gain in October. The drop was broadly distributed: Nine of 13 major categories had lower sales in November, including car dealerships, furniture stores, appliance centers and home-and-garden centers. Consumer spending rose notably at grocery stores and bars and restaurants. Compared to November 2021, only two retail categories had lower sales: Furniture stores and appliance centers. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell 0.7% in November, the fifth decline in seven months.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the first time in six weeks but still close to 40% below its 55-year average. Although data can be marginally affected by seasonal downtime, including around Thanksgiving, the Labor Department reported total claims rising 24% from the week before to nearly 1.6 million. That’s down from almost 2.5 million the year before, suggesting employers’ reluctance to let workers go.
U.S. industrial output fell 0.1% in November, its second drop in a row and the third in four months. The Federal Reserve reported a broad decline in industrial production, led by manufacturing — particularly automakers. Factory output had advanced in the four previous months. Overall industrial production was up 2.5% from the year before. Reflecting the monthly drop in production, the capacity utilization rate fell for the second month in a row, reaching its lowest level since June but still up slightly from its long-term average. The capacity utilization rate is an indicator of inflationary pressure.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 10705, down 299 points or 2.7% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3852, down 82 points or 2.1% * Dow Jones Industrial – 32920, down 556 points or 1.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.48%, down 0.09 point
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Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingSteve GilesAdam Baley(with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Kevin Lofy)Week in Review (Dec. 5-9, 2022)SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS###### Monday
The U.S. services industry expanded for the 30th month in a row in November, and at a faster rate, the Institute for Supply Management reported. The ISM services index showed the pace of growth accelerating for the first time in three months. Index components for business activity and employment drove the increase, while growth in new orders slowed slightly. The trade group said the index suggested the overall U.S. economy was growing at an annual pace of 2.3%.
The manufacturing sector also showed ongoing strength, with factory orders for October growing for the 12th time in 13 months. The Commerce Department reported broad gains led by transportation equipment – particularly aircraft and automotive products. Compared to the same time last year, factory orders were up nearly 13% – just below 12% excluding transportation. Orders for core capital goods, a measure of business investment, rose in October and was up more than 9% from October 2021.
Tuesday
The U.S. trade gap widened 5.4% to $78.2 billion in October. The value of exports shrank from September by 0.7% with declines in sales abroad of natural gas, oil products and pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, imports rose 0.6% with increased purchases of industrial materials and cars. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the trade deficit, which detracts from measures of economic output, grew 20% through the first 10 months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.
Wednesday
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 0.8% in the third quarter, up from an earlier estimate of a 0.3% gain. The annual growth rate for output rose 3.3% in the quarter while the pace of hours worked rose 2.5%. Measuring year over year, productivity slipped 1.3%, the third consecutive decline. Since the third quarter of 2021, output rose 2.1% while hours worked increased 3.4%. The report showed unit labor costs rising 5.3% from the year before. Adjusted for inflation, hourly compensation fell 4% in the latest 12 months, the biggest drop in 74 years of data.
The Federal Reserve Board reported a 19th consecutive rise in consumer credit card debt outstanding in October. Total debt, including vehicle financing and student loans, rose at a 6.9% annual rate from September, but revolving credit, which mostly reflects credit cards, gained at a rate of 10.4%. The level of credit card debt suggests consumers’ willingness to spend. In October, it was more than $71 billion or 6% above where it was just before the pandemic. The indicator took two years to recover from the COVID recession, vs. a decade-long recovery from the financial collapse and Great Recession.
Thursday
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continued to reflect a slight weakening of a historically strong labor market. The Labor Department reported an uptick in the average for the fourth week in a row. Only once in the previous 10 weeks did initial claims decline. Still, the moving average is 38% below its 55-year average, suggesting the reluctance of employers to let workers go. Just under 1.3 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 6% from the week before, compared to 1.9 million the year before.
Friday
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK* Nasdaq – 11005, down 457 points or 4.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3934, down 137 points or 3.4% * Dow Jones Industrial – 33476, down 954 points or 2.8% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.57%, up 0.06 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available.Advisors on This Week’s ShowKyle TettingDave SandstromTom Pappenfus(with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy)Week in Review (Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2022)Significant Economic Indicators & ReportsMondayNo major releasesTuesdayHigher mortgage rates continued to slow housing price increases in September, as the year-to-year gain decelerated for the sixth month in a row. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index rose 10.6% from September 2021, down from a 13% gain in August and a record rise of nearly 21% in March. Adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, the price index actually declined from the month before, as it did for all 20 cities in a composite index. A spokesman for S&P said Federal Reserve increases in interest rates should continue to raise financing costs for housing, which likely will further slow prices.Concerns about inflation—especially gas prices—lowered consumer confidence in November, the Conference Board reported. The business research group said consumer assessments of current conditions suggested “the economy has lost momentum” heading into year-end. It called short-term outlook “gloomy.” Consumers’ expectations of inflation rose to the highest level since July, even though inflation generally and gas prices particularly have dropped in recent weeks. The Conference Board said in a statement that the likelihood of recession remained high.WednesdayThe U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter, rising at an annual pace of 2.9%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Stronger consumer spending on health care and other services, greater business investments and increased exports of industrial materials helped push gross domestic product higher than the prior estimate of 2.6%. Without annualizing the figures, inflation-adjusted GDP grew 1.9% from the third quarter of 2021 and was up 5.5% from the quarter just before the COVID pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index, rose 6.3% from the year before, down from 6.6% in the second quarter.The Bureau of Labor Statistics said job openings receded in October, sinking for the fifth time in seven months. Employers posted 10.3 million openings, down from a record 11.8 million in March. The number of hires also fell, for the seventh time in eight months. Still, openings continued to outnumber the 6 million unemployed job seekers in October, supporting worker confidence. Some 4 million workers quit their jobs in October, down slightly from September but still historically high.In a sign that residential real estate sales will continue to erode, pending home sales data sank in October for the fifth month in a row. The index of contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors, declined nearly 5% from September and was down 37% from the year before. The trade group cited the highest mortgage rates in 20 years as a deterrent to home buyers, but it also suggested rates peaked in mid-November, having declined in the last couple of weeks.ThursdayThe four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the seventh time in nine weeks, reaching its highest point since early September. An indicator of layoffs, the average continued a short-term trend of creeping up but remained 38% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department also reported that a total 1.5 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 2% from the week before but down from 2.1 million the year before.A key driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, outpaced personal income in October. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said spending rose by 0.8% from September while income gained 0.7%. Adjusted for inflation, spending advanced 0.5%, vs. a 0.4% increase in income. As a result, the personal saving rate dropped to 2.
Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
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MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11226, up 80 points or 0.7% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4026, up 60 points or 1.5% Dow Jones Industrial – 34347, up 599 points or 1.8% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.7%, down 0.12 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Nov. 14-18, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Inflation on the wholesale level continued to moderate in October. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.2% from September and was up 8% from the year before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The one-year gain was the sixth deceleration in seven months after reaching a high of 11.7% in March. The cost of services overall dropped in October, based on the index. The increase in the cost for goods was fueled by a 5.7% rise in gasoline prices. Excluding volatile costs for food, energy and trade services, the so-called core Producer Price Index rose 5.4% from October 2021, the lowest rate in 17 months. Wednesday Retail sales continued growing in October, rising 1.3% from September and up 0.8% when adjusted for inflation. Led by a 4% rise in sales at gas stations, which would include higher prices, 10 of the 13 retail categories registered gains in October. Compared to the year before, every category except electronics and appliance stores increased in sales, an 8.3% gain overall. Data from the Commerce Department indicate consumer spending keeps rising despite higher inflation and interest rates. Retail sales through October were up 32% from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and up nearly 15% when adjusted for inflation.
The Federal Reserve reported a slight decline in industrial production in October, the second setback in three months and the fourth in six months. A drop in oil and mining output contributed to the decline. Manufacturing production rose for the fourth month in a row. Total output stayed above its level in February 2020, just before the pandemic, for its 12th consecutive month. Industries’ capacity utilization rate, an early indicator of inflation, edged down from September but remained above the 50-year average for the eighth month in a row. Thursday Housing construction data signaled continued softening in October, as the annual pace of building permits and housing starts receded. A report from the Commerce Department showed new authorizations and new construction for single-family houses at their lowest rates since the pandemic recession. Demand for housing has been slowing as mortgage rates have ratcheted up as a result of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. At the same time, the rate of housing units already under construction hit another record in October, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1970.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth time in seven weeks, going 15% above the mark just before the pandemic. Labor Department data showed the four-week average at 221,000 new applications, which was still 40% below the 55-year average, suggesting the relative tightness of the labor market. Total claims rose nearly 2% in the latest week to almost 1.3 million, which was down from 2.6 million the year before. Friday The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators declined in October for the eighth consecutive month. The business research group said its index fell 0.8% from September and was down 3.2% in the latest six months. That was a reversal from a 0.5% increase in the previous six months. Based on the index, the Conference Board said the U.S. economy may already be in recession. If not, it forecast that a downturn would occur before the end of the year and last until mid-2023. Among the weakening gauges cited by the group were consumer outlook, inflation, interest rates, housing construction and manufacturing.
The National Association of Realtors reported a drop in existing home sales in October, the ninth decline in as many months. The trade group blamed rising mortgage rates for sliding sales,...
Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Nov. 7-11, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The Federal Reserve reported that revolving consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 8.7% in September. The increase suggests consumer spending – which drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy – remained resilient in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates. It also indicates consumers are financing more of their spending as government subsidies from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic have dwindled and as wage increases have not kept up with inflation. The pace of credit card debt slowed from an 18% annual rate in August and was the slowest since May. The indicator took two years to recover from its pre-pandemic peak. It took a decade to recover from the financial collapse and the Great Recession.
Tuesday No major releases Wednesday No major releases
Thursday
The broadest measure of inflation showed price increases easing in October, though they’re still outpacing Federal Reserve Board targets. The Consumer Price Index gained 0.4% from September and 7.7% from October 2021. Shelter costs, the price of gasoline and food bills weighed heavily on the monthly increase, though food prices rose at the slowest pace since December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The year-to-year inflation rate marked four months of declines from 9.1% in June, which was the steepest pace since 1982. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, rose 0.3% from September, the lowest in three months. Compared to October 2021, the core CPI was up 6.3%, just under the 6.6% peak hit in September, the highest in 40 years. The Fed’s long-range target for inflation is 2%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined marginally for the second week in a row. Data from the Labor Department showed the four-week average still down 41% from its 55-year average but 14% above its low just before the COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly 1.3 million Americans were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, up 1% from the week before but down from 2.6 million the year before. Friday The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment declined from the end of October, losing about half of the gains made since slumping to an all-time low in June. Uncertainty from global factors and U.S. election outcomes mean continued instability for sentiment, which economists consider key to consumer spending. Survey respondents registered broad declines in their both their outlooks and their assessments of current conditions. Rising interest rates and high inflation dampened plans to buy big-ticket durable goods. Expectations for inflation were little changed at about 5% for a year from now and around 3% long term. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11323, up 848 points or 8.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3993, up 222 points or 5.9% Dow Jones Industrial – 33748, up 1343 points or 4.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.81%, down 0.32 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Oct. 31-Nov. 4, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday no significant reports Tuesday The manufacturing sector expanded in October for the 29th month in a row, though at the slowest rate in that stretch, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of industry purchase managers, suggested further weakening in the sector with new orders contracting for the second month in a row. Employment grew after shrinking in September, though employers reported being more careful about adding to staff. As demand has receded, the group reported supplier deliveries have been the smoothest since 2009.
The Commerce Department said construction spending rose slightly in September, aided by multi-family housing. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.8 trillion, expenditures were up 0.2% from the August pace and up 11% from the year before. Spending on residential construction was unchanged from August and up 13% from September 2021, although single-family unit spending declined for both periods. Expenditures on factory construction rose 8% from August and was up 43% from the year before.
Job openings recovered some of their losses in August, suggesting continued strength in the labor market in September. Openings rose 4% to 10.7 million positions, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. It was the indicator’s second rise in six months after posting a record 11.9 million openings in March. Demand for workers kept outpacing the number of unemployed jobseekers in September. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a measure of worker confidence – declined slightly for the fifth time in six months but remained historically elevated at 4.1 million.
Wednesday no significant reports Thursday The U.S. trade deficit widened 11.6% in September to $73.3 billion, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Imports rose 1.5%, led by cell phones, semiconductors and pharmaceutical preparations. The value of exports declined 1.1% from August, led by soybeans and crude oil. Through three quarters, the trade gap expanded by 20% from the same time in 2021. Trade deficits detract from the gross domestic product, the chief measure of economic growth.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in five weeks. Although the level remained 14% above the low point just before the COVID pandemic, it was 41% below the average since 1967. The Labor Department said 1.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 2% from the week before but below the year-before level of 2.7 million claims.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the annual rate of worker productivity rose in the third quarter by 0.3%, reversing a decline of 4.1% in the second quarter. Measuring year to year, though, third-quarter productivity sank 1.4% for the third consecutive decline — the first time that happened in data going back to 1982. Over the last four quarters, productivity fell because output, which rose 1.9%, didn’t keep pace with hours worked, which rose 3.4%. Unit labor costs rose 6.1% from the third quarter of 2021, down from a 7.6% increase in the second quarter.
The service sector of the U.S. economy grew in October at the slowest rate in 29 straight months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its survey of purchasing managers found reports of cooling growth and business activity amid hiring challenges and economic uncertainty. Managers surveyed cited fewer snags from supply chains and logistics compared to earlier in the year.
The Commerce Department said the value of factory orders rose in September for the 18th time in 19 months,
Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (Oct. 24-28) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The year-to-year gain in housing prices slowed more in August than in any month in about three decades of data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 13% from August 2021, down from a 15.6% increase in July. And though prices continued advancing at a double-digit pace, August marked the fifth straight month of deceleration since hitting a record high of 20.8% in March. A spokesman for the index said further slowing in price gains should be expected, considering how rising mortgage rates are affecting housing affordability.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dipped in October for the first time in three months as concerns grew about inflation. The business research group said holiday sales could be challenging and called consumers’ short-term outlook “dismal.” The group said expectation levels suggested economic recession. At the same time, consumers surveyed increased plans for buying houses, cars and major appliances. Wednesday The annual rate of new home sales slowed nearly 11% in September, the third decline in four months, the Commerce Department reported. The volatile indicator was 18% behind its pace in September 2021. Southern states accounted for most of the slowing from August while the south and west were the only regions declining from the year before. Even though sales overall were off, the median price for a new house continued to climb, rising to $470,600 in September, up 14% from the year before. The median time new residences were on the market was one and a half months, the briefest in 47 years of data. Thursday Demand for long-lasting manufactured products rose 0.4% in September, the sixth gain in seven months. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders through the first nine months of 2021 were up 11% from the same time in 2021. Orders for automobiles and commercial aircraft led the monthly increase, but excluding the volatile transportation category showed a 0.5% decline. Year to year, orders excluding transportation rose 8%. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, fell 0.7% from August and were up 9.5% from September 2021.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fourth week in a row, rising 14% above its low point just before the pandemic. The Labor Department reported the new-claim average was still 41% below the 55-year average, a reminder of the relatively tight labor market. In the latest week, 1.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 0.2% from the week before and down from 2.8 million the year before.
The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 2.6% in the third quarter, reversing two previous quarters of shrinking. Adjusted for inflation, gross domestic product reached a record $20 trillion and was up 4.2% from the peak prior to the 2020 recession, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Consumer spending, which generates about 70% of economic activity, advanced at a slower pace than in the second quarter. Spending on housing declined at a 26% annual rate, the worst in six straight quarters of decline. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose 6.3% from the third quarter of 2021, the lowest since a 5.7% rate at the end of 2021 but still far beyond the long-term target of 2%.
Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 0.6% in September, as personal income gained 0.4%. The personal saving rate continued to fall, dropping to 3.1% in September, dropping from a record high of 33.8% in April 2020. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, increased 6.2% in September,
Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Adam Baley (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy, Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Oct. 17-21, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.4% in September and capacity utilization remained above its long-term average for the seventh month in a row. The capacity rate, the highest since March 2008, was another sign of inflation because traditionally companies raise prices as they run out of ability to keep up with orders. The monthly report showed production rebounding after a slight decline in August. Factories increased output for the third month in a row, although the pace of such growth slowed in the third quarter, and the production of consumer goods declined. The capacity rate for manufacturing remained above its 50-year average for the 12th month in a row.
Wednesday The U.S. housing market continued to cool in September as the pace for both housing starts and building permits slowed from post-financial crisis highs reached earlier in the year. Figures from the Commerce Department showed new construction below its pre-pandemic rate for the third month in a row. Starts for single-family houses dipped to their lowest level since May 2020. Housing permits, an indicator of commitments to future homebuilding, rose from their pace in August but only for multi-family units. Single-family housing permits dropped for the seventh month in a row. And though new construction has been slowing, the report showed that the rate of houses under construction reached 1.7 million units in September, the highest in data going back to 1970. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row and was 11% higher than its low point just before the pandemic. Still, the measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go was 43% behind the long-term average, dating back to 1967. According to Labor Department data, total jobless claims fell to 1.2 million in the latest week, down 2.5% from the week before. The year before, total claims reached 3.3 million.
The pace of existing home sales continued sinking in September as mortgage rates rose. Houses sold at an annual rate of 4.7 million, down 1.5% from August and down 24% from September 2021, the National Association of Realtors reported. It was the slowest pace in a decade. The trade group said despite weakened demand, inventories remained low. One in every four houses sold in September went for more than the asking price. The median price was $348,800, decreasing for the third month in a row from a record $413,800 in June. The median price in September was 8% higher than the year before, marking a record 127 consecutive months of year-to-year price increases.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators declined 0.4% in September, deepening a negative trend that suggests a U.S. recession before the end of the year. The business research group said its index was down 2.8% in the last six months, following a 1.4% gain in the previous six. Citing high inflation, slowing job growth and rising interest rates, the group forecast a 1.4% economic expansion for 2022 with further slowing into the new year. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 10860, up 538 points or 5.2% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3753, up 170 points or 4.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 31083, up 1448 points or 4.9% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.21%, up 0.20 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy, Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Oct. 10-14, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday Prices on the wholesale level rose in September, the first increase in three months and another reminder of stubbornly high inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.4% from August largely affected by higher costs for services as well as increases for food and home heating. The core index number, which excludes volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, also rose 0.4%. Compared to the year before, the PPI gained 8.5%, slowing for the third month in a row and the lowest wholesale inflation since July 2021. Core PPI rose 5.6% from September 2021, the same as in August; that was down from as high as 7.1% in March. Thursday The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose at a slower annual pace, though its core rate increased at its fastest since 1982. Considered the broadest measure of inflation, the CPI gained 0.4% from August, led by higher prices for shelter, food and medical care. The core rate, stripping out volatile costs for food and energy, increased by 0.6%. Year to year, headline inflation rose 8.2%, its lowest since February. The core CPI was up 6.6% from the year before, the biggest gain since August 1982. The core increase was led by a 15% rise in shelter costs and a 9% gain in new car prices. Based on CPI data, the Social Security Administration announced an 8.7% adjustment to benefits in 2023. That was the biggest raise for Social Security recipients since an 11.2% boost in 1981.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row but also the second time in nine weeks. Claims averaged 211,500 in the most recent reading from the Labor Department, 43% below the 55-year average. Altogether, more than 1.2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, up 0.6% from the week before but one-third of the 3.6 million claims one year earlier. Friday With consumer spending driving about 70% of the U.S. gross domestic product, no change in retail spending in September suggests at least a momentary pause in momentum. Of 13 retail categories, seven experienced lower sales in September, the Commerce Department reported. Among the decliners were gas stations, electronics and appliance centers and furniture stores. Bars, restaurants and grocery stores were among the top gainers. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell for the fifth time in seven months and were 13% above the level just before the COVID-19 pandemic.
A preliminary October reading of consumer sentiment suggested that uncertainty continued to dampen outlooks. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan rose marginally from September furthering a gradual recovery from an all-time low in June. suppress expectations amid lingering coronavirus concerns and supply-chain disruptions. Opinions of current conditions rose slightly, but expectations stayed low because of doubts about prices, economies and financial markets globally. Anticipation of higher gas prices in the next year rose for the first time in three months. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 10321, down 331 points or 3.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3584, down 56 points or 1.5% Dow Jones Industrial – 29644, up 347 points or 1.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.01%, up 0.13 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING DAVE SANDSTROM PAIGE RADKE (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Oct. 3-7, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled expansion in September for the 28th month in a row, although at the slowest pace in that period. Based on surveys of purchasing managers, the index showed demand for factory goods contracting but also found supply-chain clogs easing. The trade group said the index suggests the U.S. gross domestic product grew at a 0.8% annual pace in September.
The Commerce Department said the annual rate of construction spending fell in August for the third month in a row. The rate of $1.78 trillion was 8.5% above the year-ago rate. Residential expenditures, which account for more than half of total spending, also declined for the third straight month, but was 49% higher than the level just before the COVID pandemic. Tuesday The Commerce Department reported such a slight decline in manufacturing orders in August that it rounded the estimate off to “unchanged.” Orders fell 1% in July and were 13% ahead of where they were in August 2021. Declines in commercial aircraft and automotive orders held back the indicator of industrial demand. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.2% for the month and were up 12% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 1.4% for the month and were up 10% from August 2021.
Employers reined in on job openings in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of help-wanted posts declined 6% to 10.1 million openings. Demand for workers still hovered near the highest levels in more than 20 years of data, while the number of active job seekers in August (according to a separate BLS report) was near the lowest in that period. Job openings declined most in the health care field along with retail trades and other services. Hiring rates and separations were little changed from July. The number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of worker confidence – rose for the first time in three months to 4.1 million.
Wednesday The U.S. trade deficit shrank 4.3% in August to $67.4 billion. The deficit, which detracts from gross domestic product, narrowed as the value of imports declined at a faster rate than exports. Through the first eight months of 2022, the trade gap grew 24% from the year before as imports rose by 21% and exports increased by 20%.
The U.S. services sector continued expanding in September, though at a slightly slower pace, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The pace of growth also was below the 12-month average. The trade group’s services index showed the 28th consecutive month of growth, expanding all but two of the latest 152 months. Purchase managers surveyed for the index reported improved supply chain efficiency, operating capacity, materials availability and employment. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in eight weeks but only because of a downward revision to the week-before numbers. Data from the Labor Department showed average new applications for jobless benefits remained 44% below the 55-year average. More than 1.2 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits in the latest week, down 4% from the week before and down from 4.2 million the same week in 2021. Friday Employers added 263,000 jobs in September, the lowest addition since April 2021 and below the 420,000 average so far in 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll jobs rose 0.3% above the level just before the pandemic. Job gains were broadly spread across industries, led by leisure and hospitality, although that group remained 1.1 million or 6.7% behind its pre-pandemic level.
Landaas & Company newsletter October edition now available. Click here for the 2022 Investment Outlook Seminar Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 27-Oct. 1, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports or releases Tuesday The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods declined in August for the second month in a row, reaching a year-to-year increase of 11%. The indicator for manufacturing demand dipped largely because of a downturn in commercial aircraft orders. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.2% from July and were 8% above their level in August 2021. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, gained 1.3% from July and were up 10% from the year before.
The annual gain in housing prices slowed to 15.8% in July from 18% in June, the biggest one-month slide in about three decades of data, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. Price increases decelerated for the third month in a row after reaching a record year-to-year jump of 20.6% in April. An S&P economist said housing inflation should continue to ease with more increases in mortgage interest rates.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose September for the second consecutive month. The business research group said advances in jobs and wages and declines in gas prices helped consumers worry less about inflation. According to the group's survey, purchasing intentions were down for houses but up for cars and appliances. The Conference Board said the outlook for consumer spending looked better through the end of the year but added that high inflation and rising interest rates remained obstacles and recession is still a risk. Wednesday With a forecast of mortgage rates nearing 7% in coming months, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index declined 2% in August, the third setback in a row and the seventh in eight months. Contract signings for houses and condominiums dropped 24% from their level in August 2021, the trade group said. The Realtors projected 2022 sales to be fewer than 5.2 million houses, which would be down 15% from 2021. They expect another 7% decline in 2023. Meantime, the association says the median home price for 2022 should be about 10% higher than 2021 with only a 1% increase expected for 2023. Thursday The U.S. economy contracted at an annual pace of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed in a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The decline followed a 1.6% annualized dip in the first quarter. Despite the slower pace, the economy was 1.8% bigger than the year before and 3.5% larger than at the end of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 6.6% increase since the second quarter of 2021, the highest since the fourth quarter of 1981.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth week in a row, reaching its lowest point since May. At 207,000, the average was 44% below its 55-year average. The Labor Department said 1.3 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, up slightly from the week before but down from more than 5 million from the year before. Friday By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.4% in August, while personal income advanced 0.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal consumption reached 18% above its pre-pandemic peak. The personal saving rate stayed at 3.5%, the same as July, down from 9.3% in February 2020. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 6.2% increase from August 2020 – the lowest since January but still near a 40-year high.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose a smidge in September,
Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD PAIGE RADKE (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 19-23, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday As mortgage rates continued to climb, the U.S. housing industry showed signs of sputtering in August. Both housing starts and building permits remained below recent highs, according to the Commerce Department. The annual rate of housing starts rose to 1.6 million, 12% above the July pace but more than 10% below the rate in April, which was the highest since 2006. Meantime, the August pace for permits declined for the fifth month in a row, down 14% from the year before. The annual rate of housing completions was 1.3 million, around the pace in 2007, before the financial collapse. Construction of new houses remained elevated with the pace of housing under constructions surpassing 1.7 million, the most in data back to 1970.
Wednesday The annual rate of existing home sales fell 0.4% to 4.8 million in August, the seventh consecutive decline and 20% below the year-ago pace. The National Association of Realtors blamed rising mortgage interest rates for dampening demand. The trade group said higher financing costs also deterred potential sellers from moving. Inventories declined in August for the first time in six months but were at about half the level considered sustainable. House prices continued to rise for a record 126th consecutive month. The median sales price of $389,500 was up nearly 8% from August 2021.
The Federal Reserve Board's policy making committee announced a unanimous agreement to increase overnight lending rates to the range of 3% to 3.25% in a continuing effort to slow down the U.S. economy to tame decades-high inflation rates. The Federal Open Market Committee issued a statement suggesting it would consider further interest rate increases to try to bring inflation closer to its long-range goal of 2%. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation showed a 6.3% rate in July. Thursday Labor market conditions continued improving. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the fourth week in a row, reaching its lowest point in three months and falling 41% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department said total claims fell 7% from the week before to just below 1.3 million. The year before, total claims were 11.2 million.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators sank 0.3% in August, its sixth monthly decline. The index dropped 2.7% in the latest six months as opposed to a gain of 1.7% in the previous six months. The reversal prompted the business research group to say that because of tightening monetary policies by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. could slide into recession “in the coming quarters.” Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 10868, down 580 points or 5.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3693, down 180 points or 4.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 29593, down 1230 points or 4.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.70%, up 0.25 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 12-16, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Inflation remained relatively high in August, though it continued to recede from recent levels. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index added 0.1% from July. That followed no change in July but was below the 12-month average of 0.7%. The critical year-to-year inflation rate was 8.3%, down from 8.5% in July and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Gasoline prices fell 11% for the month, offsetting broad gains including shelter, medical care and household furnishings. Gas was up 26% from August 2021. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.6% in August. Year to year, the core CPI was up 6.3%, up from 5.9% in both June and July.
Wednesday Inflation on the wholesale level also eased in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The Producer Price Index declined for the second month in a row, led by a decrease in prices for goods, heavily influenced by a 13% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding volatile prices for foods, energy and trade, the core PPI advanced 0.2% from July. Wholesale inflation rose 8.7% from August 2021, the smallest 12-month increase in a year. The core measure rose 5.6% year to year, the weakest since June 2021. Thursday The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% rise in retail sales in August, led by online stores, where sales grew nearly 3% from July. Sales rose at eight of the 13 major retail categories. Sales at bars and restaurants gained 1%. Gas stations led decliners with a 4% drop in revenue because of lower prices. Adjusted for inflation (the lower line in the graphic below), retail sales rose in August for the first time in four months; they were 14% ahead of where they were in February 2020, just before the pandemic.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks., dropping to its lowest level since mid-June. According to Labor Department data, the average moved to 224,000 new applications, down from a record 5.3 million in April 2020 and 39% below the 55-year average. Just under 1.4 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down nearly 2% from the week before and down from more than 12 million the year before.
U.S. industrial output fell 0.2% in August, the first decline in three months. A 2.3% drop in production from utilities dragged the measure down, the Federal Reserve reported. Output from factories rose 0.1% while the mining industry registered no change. Since August 2021, overall industrial production rose nearly 4%. Capacity utilization continued to show inflation pressure. Although it declined slightly to 80% from 80.2% in July, the operating rate stayed above the 50-year average of 79.6% for the sixth month in a row. Friday Consumer sentiment continued improving slightly in September from “extremely low” levels earlier in the summer, the University of Michigan reported. A preliminary look at survey data suggested ongoing uncertainty over inflation, though the most optimistic outlook for long-term prospects in a year or more. Sentiments toward personal finances and big-ticket buying plans remained relatively low, a possible signal that consumers may be pulling back on spending, which probably would slow economic growth. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11448, down 664 points or 5.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3873, down 194 points or 4.8% Dow Jones Industrial – 30822, down 1330 points or 4.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.46%, up 0.13 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Sept. 5-9, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets and government agencies closed for Labor Day Tuesday The U.S. service sector expanded in August for the 27th month in a row and at a slightly faster pace for the third consecutive month, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The industry group surveyed purchasing managers who said business activity, new orders and employment all grew at higher rates in August. Survey respondents also reported improvements in supply chains, logistics and costs, despite ongoing materials shortages. Based on its index, the ISM suggested the country’s gross domestic product was growing at an annual pace of 2.5%. Wednesday The U.S. trade gap narrowed by nearly 13% in July to $70.6 billion, down four months in a row after reaching a record $107 billion deficit in March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported exports rose 0.2% in July, including increased sales abroad of cars, foods, industrial supplies and travel services from the U.S. At the same time, imports declined by 2.9%, led by sales of consumer goods from other countries. Through the first seven months of 2022, the trade deficit rose 29% from the year before to $137 billion, with a 20% rise in exports and a 22% rise in imports. Thursday The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, dropping to the lowest point since July and 37% below the 55-year average. New claims had been rising marginally since hitting an all-time low in April, but they're a fraction of their level at the onset of the COVID pandemic. In further evidence of the strength of the employment market, the Labor Department reported that total claims declined nearly 2% from the previous week to 1.4 million, as opposed to nearly 12 million claims the year before.
In a sign of continued consumer spending, the Federal Reserve Board reported another rise in consumer credit debt outstanding in July. Total debt rose at a 6% annual rate. More significantly, revolving credit climbed at a nearly 12% clip. Revolving credit mostly includes credit card debt and is indicative of consumer spending, which drives nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity. Revolving debt surpassed its pre-pandemic level in April and was 3.5% above that mark in July. It took a decade for revolving credit to recover from the financial collapse that precipitated the Great Recession.
Friday No major releases MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 12112, up 481 points or 4.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4067, up 143 points or 3.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 32152, up 833 points or 2.7% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.32%, up 0.13 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter September edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Paige Radke Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 29-Sept. 2, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday Higher mortgage rates may be dampening demand for home buying, but house prices continued to rise near historic rates. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index, prices rose 18% in June from the year before. That was a slowdown from nearly 20% in May and a record 21% in March. A spokesperson for the longstanding measure said despite three months of decelerated price increases, the market remained “robust” with double-digit increases reported for each of the 20 cities in the composite index.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index improved in August for the first time in four months. The business research group said concerns about inflation remained high, though they had declined a bit. Expectations rose from a nine-year low in June. Consumers’ attitudes toward current conditions gained for the first time in five months. Intentions to make major purchases and take vacations improved. The Conference Board said consumers remained squeamish about inflation and rising interest rates.
The labor market showed strength in July with nearly twice the number of job openings as there were unemployed job seekers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers had 11.2 million openings in July, vs. a separate report earlier counting about 5.7 million people as unemployed in July. Not every job seeker would qualify for every opening, but the comparison suggests how much supply and demand are out of balance. July marked the first time in four months that openings increased. The number of workers quitting their jobs — a measure of employee confidence — declined for the fourth month in a row but stayed close to the record high of 4.5 million quits last November.
Wednesday No major releases Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for only the second time in the 21 weeks since hitting an all-time low in early April. At 241,500 new applications, the average was 35% below the 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. In total, 1.4 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, down less than 1% from the week before and down from more than 12 million the year before.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity sank at an annual rate of 4.1% in the second quarter, revised from an initial estimate of a 4.6% decline. The annual rate for output fell 1.4%, revised from a decline of 2.1%. The pace of hours worked rose 2.7%. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, productivity dropped 2.4%, the biggest year-to-year dip in data going back to 1948. In the last year, unit labor costs — which measure worker compensation against productivity — rose 9.3%, the most since 1982.
The manufacturing sector expanded in August at the same pace as July, which was the weakest in two years. Still, the Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturers broadly and collectively grew for the 27th month in a row. The trade group said its surveys of purchasing managers indicated "at least a slight easing of supply chain congestion." Based on past relationships between the index and gross domestic product, the group said the overall economy was expanding at a 1.4% annual growth rate.
The Commerce Department said construction spending declined in July, down for the second month in a row after hitting an all-time high of nearly $1.8 trillion in May. Home construction spending fell 1.5% from June’s pace but was 14% ahead of July 2021. Public construction spending rose 1.5% from June, led by expenditures on highways and streets. Friday U.S. employers continued adding jobs in August,
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Steve Giles (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 22-26, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No significant releases Tuesday The annual sales rate of new houses sank 12.6% in July and was 30% below the year-ago pace. The yearly rate of 511,000 houses sold was the lowest in six and a half years, according to the Commerce Department. The median sales price for a new house rose 8% from July 2021 to a record $439,400, Commerce reported. Meantime, the inventory of new houses for sale rose to 464,000, the most since March 2008.
Wednesday In another sign of weakened housing, the National Association of Realtors reported a second consecutive drop in pending home sales in July. The trade group said its index declined 1% from June, the eighth fall in nine months. The index was down 20% from July 2021. The association said affordability is at its lowest point since 1989, with the typical mortgage payment up 54% from the year before. However, it suggested the housing market could revive in early 2023 if mortgage rates steady and the labor market stays strong.
The Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods fell less than 0.1% in July, the first decline in four months. Commitments for commercial aircraft led a broad array of gains. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.3% from June, better than analysts expected. Overall, demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 11% from July 2021. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.4% from June and were 10% ahead of the year before. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the 18th time in the 20 weeks since hitting an all-time low in early April. At 247,000 claims, the average was the highest it has been since Thanksgiving, although it was still 33% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department reported that 1.4 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 2% from the week before and down from 12 million the year before.
The U.S. economy receded at a 0.6% annual rate in the second quarter, down from an initially estimated decline of 0.9%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Consumer spending, which drives about 70% of gross domestic product, rose at a pace of 1.5%, slightly better than the previous estimate of 1%. Upward revisions for inventories, exports and spending by state and local governments also moderated the second-quarter decline. Adjusted for inflation, the economy expanded by 1.7% from the second quarter of 2021; it grew 2.6% from the end of 2019, just before the pandemic.
Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose by 0.1% in July, suggesting continued economic growth though at a slower pace. That was down from a 1% gain in June. Personal income also weakened in July, a trend that has contributed to lower savings for consumers. In July, Americans saved 5% of disposable income, down from 8.3% in February 2020, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report also showed that the Federal Reserve’s main gauge of inflation declined by 0.1% in July and was up 6.3% from the year before. In June, the one-year inflation rate was 6.8%, still far above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%.
Considered a precursor to spending, consumer sentiment rose in August as slower inflation boosted economic expectations. Noting that “overall sentiment remains extremely low by historical standards,” the University of Michigan said its index rose to 58.2 in August from 51.5 in July. It read 70.3 the year before. The survey’s director said consumers’ economic outlooks rose after two months at the lowest level since the Great Recession. Expectations for personal finances rose broadly with a slight easing in concerns about inf...
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 15-19, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Housing construction data showed declines in July amid the rising costs of financing. Both building permits and housing starts dropped to slower paces, with permits down 1.3% from June and starts down 9.6%. Both indicators hovered at elevations before the Great Recession, with single-family housing falling off more than multi-unit structures. The same report from the Commerce Department revealed a relatively healthy home building market with the number of houses under construction near an all-time high in more than 52 years of data.
The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6% gain in industrial production in July, led by manufacturing. Auto makers increased their output by 6.6% for the month. Excluding their contribution, manufacturing production rose 0.3%. Total industrial production advanced nearly 4% from the year before, with manufacturing up 3%, mining up nearly 8% and utilities up 2%. Industries’ capacity utilization rate, an inflation indicator, rose to 80.3%, its highest level in four years. The 50-year average for capacity utilization is 79.6%. Wednesday The Commerce Department reported Retail sales in July were essentially flat from the prior month. Excluding gasoline and auto sales, retail sales rose 0.7% in July from June. Retail sales were 10.3% higher than July 2021. Thursday The Labor Department reported that the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was down from the prior week and remains significantly lower than the 33-year average (about 1/3 lower). Continued signs of broad strength in the labor market.
The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators index has fallen 1.6% from January to July 2022. Conference board projects U.S. economy will not expand in Q3 and "could tip into a short but mild recession" by year end or early 2023.
Existing home sales declined 5.9% from the prior month and 20.2% from a year ago in July. Buyers continue to be sidelined by higher mortgage rates and already high prices as well as the reduced value of other investments. The 30-year fixed Mortgage Rate was still above 5%, but below the 5.8% Mid-June peak. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 12705, down 342 points or 2.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4228, down 52 points or 1.2% Dow Jones Industrial – 33706, down 55 points or 0.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.98%, up 0.13 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 8-12, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The Bureau of Labor Statistics said second-quarter worker productivity sank by a record 2.5% from the year before. The decline, the worst in 74 years of data, resulted from a 1.5% increase in output and a 4.1% increase in hours worked. At an annualized rate, productivity fell 4.6% from the first quarter. Productivity is a volatile indicator of how well the U.S. economy is performing based on labor input. On average, productivity has gained 2.1% per year since 1948. The average annual growth since the pandemic has been 0.6%. The same report showed unit labor costs rising 9.5% over the last four quarters. That was the most in 40 years.
Wednesday The broadest measure of inflation eased in July as gasoline prices continued to decline. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the Consumer Price Index was unchanged from June after rising every month for more than two years. Although the price of food rose more than 1% for the month, the average cost of gas fell nearly 8%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% from June but with notable declines for used cars and air fares. Compared to July 2021, the CPI gained 8.5%, down from 9.1% in June, which was the highest since November 1991. The core CPI rose 5.9% from the year before, falling from the previous level for the fourth month in a row.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued to rise after hitting an all-time low 17 weeks before. The level of 252,000 new applications was the highest since Thanksgiving, and although it was 32% below the 55-year average, it was 31% above where it was just before the pandemic. A report from the Labor Department said the total number of claims rose 2% in the latest week to nearly 1.4 million. That was down from nearly 3 million the year before.
Inflation on the wholesale level declined 0.5% in July, led by a drop in gasoline prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index showed the demand for goods falling 1.8% from June — 80% owed to a 17% fall in gas prices. Excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services, the core PPI rose 0.2% for the month. Since July 2021, the PPI rose 9.8% — the lowest since October but still well above the Federal Reserve’s target for 2% annual inflation. In the last year, the core PPI rose 5.8%, the lowest in 13 months. Friday Consumer attitudes improved slightly in early August from record low levels in June and July, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The longstanding index rose to 55.1 in a preliminary August reading from 51.5 in July. It stood at 70.3 August 2021. Expectations rose broadly, especially among low- and middle-income respondents. Inflation continued to concern consumers, with 48% of respondents blaming it for eating into their living standards. Consumers’ expectations of future inflation continued to settle at lower levels. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13047, up 390 points or 3.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4280, up 135 points or 3.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 33761, up 958 points or 2.9% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.85%, up 0.01 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD CHRIS EVERS (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (August 1-5, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The manufacturing sector expanded in July for the 26th month in a row, though at the slowest pace in two years, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of purchasing managers, showed demand weakening for the second consecutive month, which has helped unclog some supply chains and ease price pressures. Executives expressed optimism for their businesses despite observations of the economy slowing.
The Commerce Department said construction spending contracted 1.1% in June. Seasonally adjusted annual spending on single-family housing led a broad array of declines. Residential projects made up more than half of total construction spending. Tuesday Employers’ demand for workers eased slightly in June, with job openings falling to 10.7 million, down for the third consecutive month after peaking at nearly 12 million in March. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed openings still well above the pre-pandemic high of 7.5 million. Meantime, the levels of hires and separations stayed steady. Volunteer quits, a measure of employee confidence, remained historically high at 4.2 million.
Wednesday Demand for manufactured goods continued in June as factory orders rose for the 13th time in 14 months. The value of orders rose 2% from May, with double-digit increases for military aircraft, household appliances and photographic equipment. The Commerce Department reported that orders increased 14% from June 2021. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, demand rose 13% from the year before.
The service sector grew in July at the fastest rate in four months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s service index showed expansion for the 26th month in a row with more orders and business activity. Hiring slowed, but so did back orders and prices. The ISM said its index suggested the gross domestic product was growing at a 2.4% annual rate. Thursday The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 6.2% in June to $79.6 billion, the lowest since December, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Exports grew 1.7% from May, led by non-monetary gold and natural gas. Imports declined 0.3%, led by automotive products. Through the first half of 2022, the gap between what the U.S. sells abroad and what it consumes from other countries rose 33% from the year before, with exports growing 20% and imports gaining 23%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose again, as it has every week since hitting an all-time low in early April. The average reached 254,750, the highest since November, though it remained 31% below the 55-year average. The Labor Department said nearly 15 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 0.3% from the week before and down from 13 million the year before. Friday U.S. employers added 528,000 jobs in July, pushing employment back to where it dropped off at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in February 2020. The unemployment rate also returned to 3.5% for the first time since February 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. The jobs recovery represents a rebound of 22 million positions lost little more than two years ago. The unemployment rate was down from a record 14.7% in April 2020. While many measures were at or better than their pre-pandemic marks, notable exceptions included a lower participation rate in the labor force, more long-term unemployment and permanent job losses and a deficit of 1.2 million jobs (7%) in the leisure and hospitality industry.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 12658, up 267 points or 2.2% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4145, up 15 points or 0.
Landaas & Company newsletter August edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Brian Kilb Dave Sandstrom Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 25-29, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday The year-to-year increase in residential prices slowed in May for the second month in a row. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index rose 19.7% from the year before, down from 20.6% in April. Of 20 cities tracked in a composite index, 16 had lower increases in May, but all 20 saw double-digit gains. A spokesman for the index projected that further price gains will narrow as rising financing costs for houses take a toll on demand.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in July for the third month in a row, suggesting slower economic growth entering the third quarter and raising the risk of recession. July’s drop-off in optimism occurred mostly in consumer expectations. The business research group said ongoing concerns about inflation were holding back more consumers’ plans to buy big-ticket items. About 70% of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending.
The annual rate of new home sales fell in June, dropping 8% from May and down 17% from the pace in June 2021. The Commerce Department reported that the inventory of unsold houses rose to their highest level since May 2009. Meanwhile, the median price of new houses rose to $402,400, up 7% from June 2021. Half of the houses sold in June cost $400,000 or more, compared to 34% in all of 2020. Wednesday Manufacturing demand remained high in June, with durable goods orders rising for the eighth time in nine months. Orders rose 1.9% from May, with broad gains led by an 80% jump in contracts for military aircraft. Excluding the volatile transportation category, the value of orders rose 0.4% from May, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.5% from May and 10% from June 2021.
The National Association of Realtors blamed rising mortgage rates and high prices for dampening demand for real estate in June. The trade association said its pending home sales index dropped 8.6% from May and 20% from the year before. The Realtors said home buying is 80% more expensive than it was three years ago and that nearly a quarter of those who bought a house in 2019 wouldn't qualify to buy now. The association projected a 13% decline in sales in 2022. Thursday The U.S. economy sank at an annual pace of 0.9% in the second quarter, the second consecutive decline, following a 1.6% setback in the first three months of the year. Adjusted for inflation, gross domestic product rose 1.6% from the same time in 2021 and was up 2.5% from the peak before the pandemic, according to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Although two consecutive quarters of declining GDP is a common shorthand for economic recession, the actual definition is more complicated. Some officials say the latest data fall short of showing a recession yet.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued rising since hitting an all-time low in early April. The Labor Department reported the moving average at nearly 250,000 claims, the highest since November and up from about 170,000 in April. The level was 30% above the low point just before the pandemic yet 33% lower than the 55-year average. In the latest week, nearly 1.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, up 9% from the week before but down from 13.1 million the year before. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 1.1% in June, although it was just 0.1% after adjusting for inflation. Personal income gained 0.6% in June, the same as in May. As a result of increased spending on steady income, the personal saving rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest since August 2009.
Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Brian Kilb Steve Giles Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 18-22, 2022) Significant economic indicators & reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The U.S. housing market slowed amid rising mortgage rates in June. The annual rates for both housing starts and building permits declined from May, although they both remained above levels just before the pandemic, which were the highest since the Great Recession. A Commerce Department report showed housing under construction reaching an all-time peak for the fourth month in a row after surpassing the record set in 1973. The pace of construction for single-family houses slowed for the second consecutive month.
Wednesday The pace of existing home sales slowed for the fifth month in a row in June, though time on the market hit a record low and the median price reached a record high. The National Association of Realtors said the annual sales rate dipped to 5.12 million existing houses, down 5.4% from May and down 14% from June 2021. The trade group blamed the rise in mortgage rates and high prices for discouraging more wannabe home buyers. The median sales price in June hit $416,000, up 13% from the year before and the 124th consecutive year-to-year increase. Meanwhile, houses that sold tended to go fast. The typical house sold in 14 days in June, the quickest in 11 years of data. Thursday Except for one week of no change, the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the 15 weeks since hitting an all-time low in early April. The 240,500 average claims were the highest since the beginning of December and 25% above the low just before the pandemic. At the same time, the measure of employers' reluctance to let workers go was 35% below the 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, total claims dropped 3% to 1.3 million, down from 12.6 million the year before.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators “points to a US economic downturn ahead.” The index from the business research group fell 0.8% in June, its fourth consecutive deceleration in growth. The group said consumer pessimism, weaker labor conditions, lower stock prices and softer factory orders sank the June index. Considering high inflation and Fed moves to raise interest rates, the Conference Board downgraded its forecast for real gross domestic product to a 1.7% increase from 2021 (from an earlier projection of 2.3% growth) with a 0.5% rise in 2023 (down from 1.8%). Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11834, up 382 points or 3.3% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3962, up 99 points or 2.6% Dow Jones Industrial – 31889, up 613 points or 2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.78%, down 0.15 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 11-15, 2020) Significant economic indicators & reports Monday No major releases Tuesday No major releases Wednesday The broadest measure of inflation rose at a 9.1% annual rate in June, the most since November 1981, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The year-to-year increase in the Consumer Price Index reflected broadly rising prices but especially for food, which was up 10% from June 2021 and gasoline, which rose 60%. Excluding volatile energy and food costs, the core index rose 5.9% from June 2021, the third month in a row that the rate of inflation declined.
Thursday Wholesale inflation also accelerated in June. The Producer Price Index rose 1.1% from May, following a 0.6% gain the month before. A 10% increase in energy prices led the boost, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Compared to the year before, the index rose 11.3%, the highest wholesale inflation rate since an 11.6% increase in March. Excluding volatile costs for food, energy and trade services, the core PPI was up 6.4% from June 2021, decelerating for the third month in a row.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims failed to fall for the 14th week in a row after reaching an all-time low in April. The average hit 235,750 claims in the latest week, still 36% behind its 55-year average. The Labor Department said 1.4 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 5.5% from the week before but down from 13.8 million the year before. Friday The Commerce Department said retail sales resumed their climb in June, up 1% following a 0.1% decline in May. Inflation figured into the sales increases, with gas stations generating nearly 4% more than in May and 49% more than in June 2021. Of 13 retail categories, nine improved sales from May. Sales at bars and restaurants rose 13% from the year before, with a 9% decline for electronics and appliance stores.
U.S. industrial output signaled a slowdown, declining 0.2% in June after no change in May and a gain of 0.8% in April. The Federal Reserve reported that factory production was down 0.5% for the second month in a row. The oil and gas industry drove mining sector output up 1.7% from May. Compared to the year before, total industrial production was 4.2% ahead. Meanwhile, annual revisions in Fed data showed the capacity utilization rate for industries above the 50-year average for the fourth month a row, another sign of inflationary pressures.
Record-low consumer sentiment in June barely picked up in early July, according to preliminary survey results from the University of Michigan. Respondents’ assessments of current economic conditions improved slightly from June, with more citing an ease in supply constraints. But about half of the consumers (49%) blamed inflation for eroding their living standards, matching a record high set during the Great Recession. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11452, down 183 points or 1.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3863, down 36 points or 0.9% Dow Jones Industrial – 31286, down 52 points or 0.2% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.93%, down 0.17 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (July 4-8, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday Markets and government offices closed for Independence Day. Tuesday Demand for manufactured goods stayed steady in May as factory orders rose 1.6% from April, the eighth consecutive increase and the 12th in the last 13 months. The Commerce Department reported a 2.9% monthly gain in consumer goods orders. Demand for transportation equipment rose for the seventh time in eight months, led by military aircraft. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, was up 0.6% from April and more than 10% from the year before. Wednesday The U.S. services sector continued expanding in June, although at the slowest pace since May 2020, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed the 25th consecutive month of growth. Index components suggested employment was contracting, new orders were weakening and supplier deliveries were slowing further. The group cited “logistical challenges, a restricted labor pool, material shortages, inflation, the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine.”
U.S. employers posted 11.3 million job openings in May, down the second month in a row after a record 11.9 million in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported slight declines in hiring for the third month in a row. The number of layoffs and firings rose minimally but was up for the fourth time in five months. The number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs fell below 4.3 million for the first time since January after reaching a record 4.5 million in November.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose to its highest level since December, increasing for the 12th time in 13 weeks after hitting a record low in early April. Even so, average claims were 37% below the 55-year average, suggesting continued reluctance among employers to let workers go. The Labor Department said 1.3 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits in the latest week, up 0.1% from the week before but down from 14.2 million the year before.
A decline in consumer goods imports helped narrow the U.S. trade deficit in May. The negative gap between goods and services sold from the country vs. what’s purchased from abroad narrowed for the second month in a row, falling to $85.5 billion, down 1.3% from April. Through the first five months of 2022, the deficit was 38% wider than the year before. In May, the value of exports rose 1.2%, led by energy products. Imports grew by 0.6%, with purchases of energy products and travel-related services offsetting a $1.5 billion decrease in imported consumer goods. Trade deficits count against the gross domestic product. Friday U.S. employers added 372,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.6% for the fourth month in a row. The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the overall employment picture continuing to brighten, with the number of jobs just 524,000 (0.3%) shy of the pre-pandemic level after losing about 22 million. The unemployment rate neared the 3.5% mark in February 2020, which was a 50-year low. While leisure and hospitality accounted for about a sixth of the jobs added in June, the industry remained 1.3 million (7.8%) below the February 2020 level. Private-sector employment exceeded the pre-pandemic number, but government jobs were down by 664,000 (2.9%).
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11635, up 507 points or 4.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3899, up 74 points or 1.9% Dow Jones Industrial – 31339, up 242 points or 0.8% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.10%, up 0.21 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter July edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 27-July 1, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods rose 0.7% in May, the seventh increase in eight months. The indicator for manufacturing demand reached an all-time high, unadjusted for inflation. It was nearly 11% above its level in May 2021. Orders for transportation equipment led all categories as contracts for cars and military aircraft more than offset a decline in commercial aircraft. Even excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders rose 0.7% and were about 9% above their level in May 2021. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.5% from April and were up 10.2% from the year before.
Pending home sales rose in May for the first time in seven months. The National Association of Realtors said its index for contract signings advanced 0.7% from April, though it was down nearly 14% from May 2021. The trade group said higher mortgage rates are pulling sales lower even while demand continued to outpace supply. Based on the median sales price and a 10% down payment, the group said monthly mortgage costs were up $800 from the beginning of the year. Tuesday The annual gain in housing prices decelerated in April for the first time in five months but continued to far outmatch overall inflation. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, prices rose 20.4% nationwide since April 2021. The growth rate accelerated in nine of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller composite index. All continued to have double-digit increases. An analyst for the index said more expensive mortgage financing should slow price increases: "A more challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer.”
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in June for the second month in a row, suggesting weaker economic growth for the rest of the year and an increased chance of recession before 2023. The business research group said attitudes toward current conditions were little changed from May, but expectations fell to their lowest point in nearly a decade. At the heart of the gloom: Inflation concerns, particularly rising prices for food and gasoline. Wednesday The U.S. economy sank at an annual pace of 1.6% in the second quarter of 2022, according to the last of three estimates of the gross domestic product. Record trade deficits weighed heavily on the measure, reflecting unbalanced global commerce still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and disrupted by the war in Ukraine. Adjusted for inflation, data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the economy 3.5% ahead of where it was the year before and up 2.7% from the pre-pandemic peak.
Thursday Consumer spending slowed in May as personal income remained steady, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal spending accounts for about 70% of GDP and actually declined 0.4% when adjusted for inflation. On balance, personal saving rose slightly to 5.4% of disposable income, up from 5.2% in April, which was the lowest since 2009. The Federal Reserve Board’s favorite measure of inflation showed signs of easing in May, reaching a 6.3% year-to-year rate, the same as April but down from 6.6% in March.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose to its highest level since December. It has not declined since hitting an all-time low in early April. Even so, Labor Department figures show the moving average 37% below the 55-year average, although it was 21% higher than it was just before the pandemic. More than 1.3 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 1.3% from the week before but down from 14.
Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Kevin Lofy)
Week in Review (June 20-24, 2022) Significant Indicators & Reports Monday Markets closed in observance of Juneteenth Day Tuesday The National Association of Realtors blamed rising mortgage rates in part for the fourth consecutive decline in existing home sales in May. The seasonally adjusted annual rate sank 3.4% to 5.4 million houses, down 8.6% from the year-earlier pace. The trade association said sales levels were back to where they were in 2019 and the balance between sales of houses and condominiums suggested a slowdown in the pandemic trend of urban dwellers moving to suburbs. Even with falling sales, the inventory of houses on the market was about half of what's considered enough to be sustainable. Because of tight supply, the median sales price rose nearly 15% from May 2021 to $407,600, the 123rd month in a row of year-to-year increases. Wednesday No major reports Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims continued to rise, up for the 11th week since hitting a record low in early April. The Labor Department reported that the average level of new claims was at its highest point since January, though it was still 40% below the 55-year average. Another measure, the moving average of insured unemployment, reached a 52-year low. About 1.3 million Americans claimed unemployment insurance benefits in the latest week, up 1% from the week before but down from 14.8 million the year before. Friday The Commerce Department and Department of Housing and Urban Development said the annual rate of new home sales rose 10.7% in May, the first gain in five months. The sales pace of 696,000 new houses was down 5.9% from May 2021, just above the level entering the pandemic and near where it was just before the Great Recession. The supply of new houses for sale rose to the highest point since April 2008, and the median sales price rose to a new high of $449,000, up 15% from May 2021.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest mark ever in June. The survey-based gauge measured 50, down from 58,4 in May and 85.5 in June 2021. Consumers continued to cite inflation as their chief concern, with 47% blaming it for lowering their standard of living. During the Great Recession, a record 48% made that claim. Consumers expressed more confusion over long-term price increases than at any time since 1991. Even so, they forecast inflation to settle at 3.1% in the long run, which was consistent with the range in the last 10 months of surveys. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11608, up 809 points or 7.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3912, up 237 points or 6.5% Dow Jones Industrial – 31504, up 1615 points or 5.4% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.13%, down 0.11 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (June 13-17, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major reports Tuesday The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the price of gasoline contributed to rising inflation on the wholesale level in May. The Producer Price Index rose 0.8% from April, twice the rate from the month before, although half the gain between March and April. Prices rose broadly, including an 8.4% increase in gasoline prices and a 2.9% advance in the cost of trucking freight. Excluding volatile prices for food, energy and trade, the core PPI was up 0.5% in May. Compared to 12 months earlier, wholesale inflation rose 10.8% in May, which was down from 10.9% in April and 11.5% in March. Core PPI was up 6.8% from May 2021, the same rate as April. Wednesday The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% decline in retail sales in May as consumers forsook car dealers, appliance centers, online vendors and furniture stores. Sales rose at gas stations and grocery stores, but that was at least in part because of higher prices. The monthly decline in retail spending was the first since December. Compared to May 2021, sales rose by 8.1%, including a 43% gain at gas stations. Car dealer sales declined 5% from the year before amid ongoing supply problems.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the ninth time in 10 weeks after hitting an-all time low in early April. Despite rising 25% in that time, the moving average was still 41% below the 55-year average. According to the Labor Department, the moving average for insured unemployment reached its lowest point since 1970, and the total claims for jobless benefits fell below 1.3 million, compared to 14.8 million the year before.
The annual pace of housing starts and building permits suggested the housing industry was slowing in May with the rise in mortgage rates. A joint report from the departments of Commerce and Housing and Urban Development showed starts contracting 14% from April’s pace while permits declined 7%. Permits remained above their levels just before the pandemic, and although starts were down slightly from that period, the number of houses under construction in May reached a record high for the third month in a row.
Friday U.S. industrial output rose 0.2% in May, the slimmest gain in five consecutive months of advance. The Federal Reserve reported a slight decline in manufacturing production, the first dip since December. Both the mining and utilities sectors increased output, with oil and gas extraction averaging gains of 2% each month since March. Capacity utilization rose to 79%, its highest level since October 2018. An early indicator of inflationary pressure, capacity usage remained below its 50-year average of 79.5%.
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators declined 0.4% in May, the same as in April. The business research group said despite a near-record level for the index, the recent downward trend, along with interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, suggest at least a near-term slowdown in economic growth. Particular items weighing down the May index were lower stock prices, slower housing construction and soured consumer expectations. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 10798, down 542 points or 4.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3674, down 226 points or 5.8% Dow Jones Industrial – 29885, down 1508 points or 4.8% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.24%, up 0.08 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik and Kevin Lofy) Week in Review (June 6-10, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 19% in April to $87 billion after an all-time high of nearly $108 billion in March. It marked the first time the deficit shrank in six months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports grew by 3.5% in April, led by oil-based industrial supplies, soybeans, aircraft and travel services. Imports declined 3.4% in April, led by consumer goods, industrial supplies and computers. Imports from China fell 18% amid COVID-19 lockdowns in some regions. Year to year, the U.S. trade deficit widened 41% with a 19% gain in exports and a 24% rise in imports. Larger deficits detract from gross domestic product and have slowed economic growth for seven consecutive quarters.
The Federal Reserve Board reported that revolving consumer credit debt outstanding surpassed its pre-pandemic high in April. While total debt rose at a 10% annual rate from March, revolving credit, which mostly includes credit cards, increased at a 20% pace. An indicator of consumer confidence, the level of credit card debt rose $133 billion or 14% since its pandemic low in January 2021. The measure took 26 months to recover, as opposed to 10 years following the great financial collapse.
Wednesday No major releases Thursday Though still historically low, the four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose to its highest level in four months. The measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go increased eight of the previous nine weeks after hitting a record low in April. The moving average remained 42% below the 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. Fewer than 1.3 million American claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 15.3 million the year before. Friday The broadest measure of inflation had a 12-monthy increase of 8.6% in May, the most since December 1981. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index rose broadly, but higher food and energy prices played a big role. Food prices rose more than 10% from May 2021, with groceries up 12%, the most since 1979. Energy costs increased 35% from the year before, with gasoline up 49% and fuel oil up 107% - the biggest jump in data going back to 1935. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 6% from May 2021. That was down from 6.2% in April and 6.5% in March.
A preliminary look at consumer sentiment in June found the lowest reading in more than four decades of surveys. University of Michigan researchers said consumers’ attitudes are comparable to opinions held in the depths of the 1980 recession. Expectations especially dropped lower, with 46% of those surveyed blaming inflation, up from 38% in May. More than half made impromptu complaints about supply shortages, which happened for the ninth month in a row. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11340, down 673 points or 5.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3901, down 208 points or 5.1% Dow Jones Industrial – 31392, down 1507 points or 4.6% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 3.16%, up 0.20 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 30-June 3, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday Markets and government closed for Memorial Day Tuesday Housing prices continued to outpace overall inflation in March, even as mortgage rates rose. The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index grew at a 12-month rate of 20.6%, the highest in more than 35 years of data. Economists have expected price increases to moderate with higher interest rates as steeper borrowing costs lower demand among home buyers.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in May after a brief gain in April. The business and research group said perceived weakness in the labor market lowered views of current conditions, but the real risk to consumer spending in coming months are attitudes toward higher prices and interest rates. Concerns about inflation stayed about where they were in April, the Conference Board reported, but consumers are shifting more of their spending from durable goods like cars to services like vacations. Wednesday The manufacturing sector expanded in May at a slightly faster pace. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index exceeded 50 for the 24th month in a row, suggesting the industry was growing. Purchasing managers surveyed for the index said supply chains and prices were their biggest concerns. New export orders rose slightly, a hiring component weakened and a gauge of supplier deliveries showed improvement. The trade group said its index indicates the U.S. economy is growing at an annual pace of 2.6%.
Housing led a 0.2% increase in the pace of construction spending in April, which reached a record annual rate of more than $1.7 trillion. The Commerce Department reported residential spending rose 0.9% from the March pace and was up 18% from April 2021. Public expenditures on construction were up nearly 2% from the year before, including a 6% increase on road construction.
U.S. employers posted 11.4 million job openings in April, down from a record 11.9 million in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported slight declines in the number of hires and total separations, but the number of layoffs and discharges dropped to 1.2 million, the lowest in 22 years of data. In another indication of the tight labor market, the number of unemployed job seekers per job opening fell to a record low.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time since hitting an all-time low in early April. A Labor Department report showed first-time applications were 44% below the 55-year average, indicating employer reluctance to let workers go in a tight labor market. About 1.3 million Americans claimed unemployment benefits in the latest week, up from more than 15 million at the same time last year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity fell at an annual rate of 7.3% in the first quarter, the steepest decline since 1947. Hampered by global supply-chain snags, non-farm output contracted at a 2.3% pace while hours worked rose at a 5.4% rate. Since the first quarter of 2021, productivity dipped 0.6% as output increased 4.2% and hours worked rose 4.8%. That year-to-year decline was the biggest since 1993. Since just before the pandemic, productivity has increased by 2.6%, a rate of 1.2% per year. Labor costs rose 8.2% from the first quarter of 2021, the most since 1982.
For the 11th time in 12 months, factory orders rose in April, up 0.2% from March. Commercial aircraft contributed to the April gain, rising 2.7%. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, the Commerce Department reported, factory orders still rose 0.2% in April. Compared to the year before, total orders were up 12.6% and up 13.
Landaas & Company newsletter June edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 23-27, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major reports Tuesday The annual sales rate of new houses declined 17% in April, the fourth drop in a row, reaching the slowest rate since the beginning of the pandemic. The Commerce Department said the median price rose 20% from April 2021 to a record $450,600. Meantime, the number of new houses for sale rose to the highest point in 12 years. Houses priced $500,000 and more made up 43% of all sales in April, compared with 26% the year before and 18% for all of 2020.
Wednesday The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 0.4% in April, the sixth gain in seven months, led by an increase in aircraft orders. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders rose 0.3% from March. Year-to-year demand for long-lasting manufactured items was up 10.5%, or 8.6% without transportation equipment. A proxy for business investments rose 0.7% from March and was up 14.1% from April 2021. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims rose for the seventh week in a row after hitting an all-time low in early April. Labor Department data showed the moving average was the highest since mid-February but still 44% below the 55-year average. A little more than 1.3 million Americans received jobless benefits in the latest week, down 4% from the week before and down from 15.8 million the year before.
The U.S. economy slowed more than initially estimated in the first quarter, dipping at an annual rate of 1.5%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. At first, the agency thought gross domestic product had fallen off at a 1.4% pace, but spending on inventories and housing declined more than earlier data suggested. A faster rate of consumer spending couldn’t cover the gap. The inflation-adjusted level of GDP rose 3.5% from the first quarter of 2021 and was 2.8% above the pre-pandemic peak. Personal saving declined 29% from the fourth quarter, and the personal saving rate dropped to 5.6% of disposable income from 7.9% at the end of 2021.
Rising mortgage rates on top of inflated prices have been crimping demand for houses as the pending home sales index declined in April for the six month in a row. The National Association of Realtors said its index fell 3.9% from March and was down 9% from the year before, for the 11th consecutive year-to-year decline. The trade association said higher borrowing costs have added 25% to the expense of buying a house in the last year. It expects sales to decline by 9% in 2022, resulting in home price increases slowing to 5% a year, as opposed to about 15% now. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis showed consumer spending continued to rise in April, the fourth consecutive month of gains despite concerns about inflation. Spending rose 0.9% from March, more than twice the gain in income, meaning personal saving declined. Consumer savings dropped to 4.4% of disposable income, the lowest in 14 years. In the same report, the Federal Reserve’s main gauge of inflation slowed for the first time since November 2020. The personal consumption expenditure index was up 6.3% from April 2021, down from 6.6% in March, which was the highest since 1982.
A precursor to spending, consumer sentiment, declined further in May, driven by concerns about inflation. The University of Michigan said inflation worries were dampening confidence about buying houses and durable goods and also souring optimism toward the economy overall. At the same time, consumers’ feelings toward their personal finances stayed stable. Less than a quarter expected to be worse off financially in the next year, while a majority anticipated being better off within five years. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 16-20, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Inflation may be adding to consumer spending but has not yet stopped it, according to retail sales figures from April. The Commerce Department reported a 0.9% rise in sales from March, the fourth monthly gain, to a record $678 billion, not adjusted for inflation. Sales rose broadly for the month, led by car dealers and restaurants and bars. Revenue at gas stations declined 2.7% in April, largely because of a temporary drop in prices at the pump. Compared to April 2021, gas station sales rose 37%.
In another sign of continued economic growth, the Federal Reserve said its industrial production index rose 1.1% in April to an all-time high. Output increased for the fourth month in a row and the sixth time in seven months. Auto manufacturing led the boost with a 3.9% production gain in April. Industry’s capacity utilization rate, which can be an early indicator of escalating inflation, rose to 79%, the highest since December 2018 but still below the 55-year average of 79.5%. Manufacturing’s capacity rate rose to the highest point in 15 years and exceeded the long-time average for the second month in a row. Wednesday The supply of new houses showed signs of slowing in April as the annual pace of both building permits and housing starts declined slightly from March. The Commerce Department reported that new construction remained near levels from 16 years ago after the peak of the housing bubble. For both housing starts and permits — considered a precursor to further building — single-family housing development slowed more than apartments. Residential construction had been on the upswing in recent years to address historically low inventories amid strong demand. The number of houses under construction reached a record high in April, based on government records dating to 1970.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the sixth week in a row after hitting a record low in April. Averaging just under 200,000 claims, the level was the highest since February but 46% below the 55-year average. The average reached a record 5.3 million claims in April 2020. The Labor Department reported another measure of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers: The level of insured unemployment clipped to the lowest point since 1969.
The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators shrank 0.3% in April, largely because of weaker consumer expectations and fewer housing permits. The business research group said a flat trend for the index recently suggests continued moderate growth for the economy. It forecast a 2.3% gain in GDP for 2022. The group noted challenges to growth, including inflation, interest rates, pandemic lockdowns and supply delays.
High prices and rising mortgage rates are curbing demand from home buyers, sending existing home sales down 2.4% in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. The annual rate of sales fell to 5.6 million houses, down 5.9% from April 2021. The trade group said it expected sales to continue to fall back to pre-pandemic levels. Cooler demand meant inventories rose to a 2.2 months’ supply, which was still historically low. The median sales price rose to $391,200, up 14.8% from April 2021, the 122nd consecutive year-to-year price gain. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11355, down 450 points or 3.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 3901, down 123 points or 3.0% Dow Jones Industrial – 31261, down 936 points or 2.9% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.79%, down 0.15 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD PAIGE RADKE (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 9-13, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday No major releases Wednesday By a couple of measures, inflation slowed in April, though still staying near 40-year highs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its Consumer Price Index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from March, the lowest gain since August. Since April 2021, the index was up 8.3%, down from an 8.5% rate in March. Food costs rose about 1% for the month and more than 9% for the year. Gasoline dropped more than 6% in price in April but was up 44% from April 2021. The core CPI. excluding volatile prices for food and energy items, rose 6.2% from the year before, down from 6.5% in March. Costs for transportation and shelter added to the core CPI gains. Used-car prices rose nearly 23% from April 2021, though they have declined in the last three months.
Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth week in a row after hitting an all-time low in April. Data from the Labor Department showed continued reluctance by employers to let workers go. The moving average stayed 48% below the 55-year average. Another measure of the tight job market, the level of insured unemployment, reached its lowest point since 1970. Total claims for benefits declined 2.6% in the latest week to 1.4 million, compared to 16.8 million the year before.
Inflation on the wholesale level rose 0.5% in April, the smallest gain since September. Year to year, the Producer Price Index increased by 11%, down from an 11.5% gain in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price increases slowed in April for energy as well as for transportation and warehousing. The core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.6% for the month and 6.9% since April 2021. Both rates were lower than in March. Friday The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment declined sharply from the end of April as both expectations and current assessments fell across demographic and political lines. Feelings toward personal finances sank to the lowest level since 2013, with 36% of consumers citing high inflation. Their expectations for long-term inflation, though, remained steady at around 3%. Consumers reported the worst conditions for buying durable goods since the survey began asking the question in 1978. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 11805, down 340 points or 2.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4024, down 99 points or 2.4% Dow Jones Industrial – 32196, down 703 points or 2.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.94%, down 0.19 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (May 2-6, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday The manufacturing sector continued expanding in May for the 23rd month in a row, though at the slowest rate since July 2020. The Institute for Supply Management continued to describe the business environment as "demand-driven, supply chain-constrained." The trade group’s surveys of purchasing managers showed supply and pricing issues as the industry’s biggest concerns. Survey respondents noted that recent progress on hiring had slowed. They also cited the instability of global energy since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Commerce Department said construction spending grew to another record high in March, led by expenditures on housing. At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.73 trillion, construction spending rose 0.1% from February and nearly 12% from March 2021. Housing, which accounted for more than half of the spending, was up 1% from the month before, while government outlays for construction and private non-residential spending both declined. Tuesday The tight hiring market was displayed in a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showing record numbers of both job openings and workers quitting their jobs in March. The monthly report showed 11.5 million openings with employers, with expanded listings particularly in retail trade and durable goods manufacturing. At the same time, 4.5 million workers voluntarily left their jobs, presumably with expectations of moving to better positions. Registering the most quits were workers in professional and business services, in construction and at bars and restaurants. Both job openings and quits hit the highest levels in 22 years of data.
Another sign of manufacturing’s expansion was a 2.2% rise in factory orders in March, the 22nd gain in 23 months. Orders were up 14.2% from the year-ago level with broad monthly gains and a rise in automotive demand offsetting a decline in aircraft orders. Excluding volatile numbers for transportation equipment, orders rose 13.4% from March 2021, the Commerce Department reported. A proxy for business investments rose 10.2% from its year-earlier level.
Wednesday
The U.S. trade deficit rose 22.3% in March to a record $109.8 billion. The value of exports rose 5.6% while imports rose 10.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the first-quarter deficit widened 41.5% from the year before as exports rose by 17.7% while imports rose 23.8%. The imbalance illustrates how the U.S. economy has been outpacing its trading partners since the pandemic, with U.S. consumers demanding more imported goods such as cars, computers and other consumer goods. U.S. exports were led by industrial supplies and materials, including oil products.
The service sector of the U.S. economy kept growing in April, although it decelerated for the fourth time in five months. The Institute for Supply Management said its index for the service sector rose for the 23rd month in a row after contracting for two months in 2020 for the first time in 11 years. A decline in new orders and a contraction in employment slowed the index in April, despite continued strong business activity. Purchasing managers surveyed by the trade group cited ongoing challenges from inflation, capacity constraints and logistics. They also noted rising costs of energy products and chemicals because of war in Ukraine.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row after reaching a record 55-year low in March. The moving average was 49% below the all-time average, and the level of insured unemployment — another measure of employers’ reluctance to let workers go — dipped to its lowest point since 1970. The Labor Department said fewer than 1.
Landaas & Company newsletter May edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 25-29) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major releases Tuesday Manufacturing resumed its expansion in March, with durable goods orders rising 0.8% from February, according to the Commerce Department. Orders grew for the fifth time in six months following a 1.7% setback in February. Gains were led by a 5% rise in automotive orders and a 2.6% gain for computers and electronics. Aircraft orders declined. Excluding volatile transportation equipment, orders were up 1.1%. Since March 2021, all orders rose 12.6%, including 10.3% without transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, rose 1% from February and were up 10.4% from March 2021.
An imbalance between weak supply and strong demand continued to drive the year-to-year increase in residential prices in February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index. The national index rose by 19.8%, behind only August and July last year as the highest in 35 years of data. All 20 cities in the composite index increased year-to-year gains from January. An analyst from S&P said he expects rising mortgage rates eventually to slow home price increases, which have been far outpacing overall inflation.
The Commerce Department said the annual rate of new home sales declined 8.6% in March, the third dip in a row, falling to the slowest pace since November. As a result, the supply of houses for sale rose to the highest level since October. Cost of ownership continued to rise. The median sales price rose 21% from March 2021 to $436,700. New houses of $500,000 and higher accounted for 38% of all sales, vs. 22% the year before.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined slightly in April with relatively high opinions on current conditions suggesting continued economic growth. The business research group said gas prices and the war in Ukraine did not appear to dampen expectations, which rose slightly but remained relatively low. Fears of inflation receded from a record high in March, and more consumers reported plans to buy big-ticket items like cars and appliances. Wednesday The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell 1.2% in March, the fifth decline in a row. The trade group’s index was down 8.2% from the year before, the 10th consecutive year-to-year decline. An economist for the association said higher mortgage rates were narrowing the pool of home buyers. He forecast a 9% drop in houses sold this year and projected annual price increases to decelerate to 8%. Thursday The U.S. economy sank at an annual pace of 1.4% in the first quarter, though on a full-year basis, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product was up 3.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP was 2.8% above its pre-COVID peak at the end of 2019. Global supply issues slowed economic pace with declines in inventories and a record trade deficit. Consumer spending, which drives about two-thirds of economic activity, advanced at a 2.7% annual pace, led by spending on services. Year-to-year, adjusted for inflation, consumer spending rose 4.7%, down from 6.9% in the fourth quarter. The Federal Reserve Board’s preferred measure of inflation rose 6.3% from the first quarter of 2021, more than triple the Fed’s target pace.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row after reaching an all-time low. New claims were 51% lower than the 55-year average, according to Labor Department data. In the latest week, 1.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits, down 6.3% from the week before and down from 16.5 million the year before. Friday The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending rose 1.1% in March, exceeding a 0.
Landaas & Company newsletter April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Brian Kilb Steve Giles Chris Evers Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 18-22, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday Amid inflated prices and historically low inventory, U.S. housing starts and building permits remained elevated in March. Seasonally adjusted annual rates slowed from February for single-family permits and starts, just as mortgage rates rose. Still, the overall pace stayed near 2006 highs. The level of housing under any stage of construction was close to the record set in 1973. Single-family houses under construction reached their highest level in more than 15 years.
Wednesday At the same time the construction industry is building housing supply, the demand has begun to sink. The National Association of Realtors reported the second month in a row of declining existing home sales in March and forecast the number of transactions would recede by 10% in 2022. The trade group blamed rising mortgage rates and inflation concerns for weakening demand. And while inventory rose 12% from February, it remained historically tight, continuing to push year-to-year prices higher for the 121st month in a row. The median sales price rose 15% from March 2021 to a record $375,300. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row after hitting an all-time low. The average reached 177,250, which was 52% below the 55-year average. That’s down from a record 5.3 million just two years ago. The Labor Department reported 1.6 million total claims for jobless benefits in the latest week, down 5% from the previous week 17.4 million the year before.
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in March, despite volatile stock prices and lower expectations from consumers and businesses. The broad gain signaled continued growth in the U.S. economy, the business research group said, although the war in Ukraine presents a speed bump. The Conference Board lowered its forecast for 2022 GDP growth to 3% from its pre-war projection of 3.5%. The group also cited ongoing challenges from supply disruptions, inflation, rising interest rates and a tight labor market. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 12839, down 512 points or 3.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4272, down 121 points or 2.7% Dow Jones Industrial – 33811, down 640 points or 1.9% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.90%, up 0.07 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Dave Sandstrom Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 11-15, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday Overall inflation remained at the highest level in more than 40 years in March. The Consumer Price Index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 8.5% from March 2021, the biggest increase since December 1981, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compared to February, the CPI rose 1.2%, more than half of it attributed to an 18.3% rise in the price of gasoline. Food prices and housing costs also pushed the index higher. Excluding prices for volatile food and energy products, the core CPI rose 0.3% from February, decelerating for the second month in a row and slowing to the smallest gain since September. Year to year, the core CPI rose 6.5%, the most since August 1982.
Wednesday Inflation on the wholesale level also kept rising in March. with the Producer Price Index advancing 1.4% from the month before and 11.2% in the last year, both record highs in data going back to 2010. Energy prices accounted for more than half of a broad monthly increase of 2.3% in goods costs. Services prices rose 0.9%, led by increased margins for trade services, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The core Producer Price Index, which excludes volatile prices for energy, food and trade, rose 0.9% from February and 7% from March 2021, the same 12-month rate as December and November. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in five weeks after hitting a 55-year low the week before. Claims averaged 172,500 in the most recent reading from the Labor Department, down 54% from the average level dating back to 1967. Altogether, 1.7 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the most recent week, down 1% from the week before and down from 17 million at the same time the year before.
Higher gas prices helped pump U.S. retail spending in March. Total retail sales rose 0.5% from February for the third consecutive monthly gain and the seventh in eight months. Gas stations led the way, with sales advancing nearly 9% - a reflection of higher prices. Excluding gas stations, retail sales declined by 0.3% from February. Compared to the year before, gas station sales were up 37%, vs. 6.9% for all retailers. Also noteworthy, bars and restaurants continued to recover from the COVID pandemic, with sales rising 1% for the month and 19% since March 2021.
A preliminary April reading of consumer sentiment suggested Americans are slightly more optimistic about the future because of favorable conditions for workers and a belief that inflation will slow. The survey-based index from the University of Michigan said respondents 45 and younger expect wages to rise 5.3% in the next year, the highest forecast in more than 30 years. Consumers also anticipate lower gas price increases than they predicted in recent months. An economist with the survey called the gains in sentiment small and tentative and "still too close to recession lows to be reassuring." Friday A report by the Federal Reserve showed industrial production rising to a record high in March, up 0.7% from February and more than 3% above its peak just before the pandemic. Manufacturing, mining and utilities all increased output in March, led by manufacturing, which benefited from a 7.8% rise in auto industry production. The capacity utilization rate for all industries rose to 78.3%, the highest since late 2018. That was still well below the 50-year average of 79.5%. Manufacturing capacity beat its long-term average for the first time since 2018 and reached its highest level since 2008. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13351, down 360 points or 2.6% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4393,
Landaas & Company newsletter April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (April 4-8, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The Commerce Department reported a 0.5% decline in manufacturing orders in February, the first setback in 10 months. Demand for big-ticket commercial aircraft led the declines; automotive orders also fell. Excluding the volatile transportation equipment category, factory orders rose 0.4% from January and have been up every month since the pandemic recession ended in April 2020. Compared to February 2021, total orders were up 14.3% and up 12.9% excluding transportation. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, fell 0.2% for the month and were up 10.8% from the year before. Tuesday The U.S. trade deficit declined a smidge from its record gap in January to $89.2 billion in February. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that imports grew at a slightly slower rate than exports in February. Imports rose by 1.3%, led by crude oil and other industrial chemicals, which offset a decline in automotive shipments. There also was a surge in payments for intellectual property associated with broadcast rights to the winter Olympics. U.S. exports rose 1.8%, led by industrial supplies, consumer goods and travel services. The deficit, which detracts from gross domestic product, results from the value of imports exceeding that of exports.
The U.S. services sector continued expanding in March, accelerating for the first time in four months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed the 22nd consecutive month of growth and has expanded all but two of the latest 146 months. Despite health momentum, purchase managers surveyed for the index repeated ongoing concerns about supply chains, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. They suggested hiring challenges have eased somewhat with fewer public health restrictions. Wednesday No major reports Thursday After the Labor Department updated calculation methods to better reflect seasonal fluctuations, the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level in 55 years of data. Average claims reached 170,000 in the week ended April 2, down 54% from the all-time average and 11% below the low just before the pandemic. Low unemployment insurance claims reflect the reluctance of employers to part with workers.
The Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit card debt rose in February for the ninth month in a row. With consumer spending driving about 70% of U.S. economic activity, credit card debt can signal consumers’ ability and willingness to spend. Since peaking just before the pandemic, such debt is still down $34 billion or 3.1%, unadjusted for inflation. It took almost 10 years for credit card debt to recover from the Great Recession.
Friday No major reports MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13711, down 551 points or 3.9% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4489, down 57 points or 1.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 34723, down 95 points or 0.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.71%, up 0.34 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter April edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Jason Scuglik, Joel Dresang) Week in Review (March 28-April 1, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday The annual gain in housing prices accelerated in January for the first time since hitting a record high in August. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, prices rose 19.2% nationwide since January 2021. In August, the year-to-year increase reached 20%, the fastest pace in 33 years of data. An economist with the index said price increases accelerated broadly in January, with 16 of the top 20 cities experiencing higher growth. The economist said the pace could start slowing soon in response to higher mortgage rates.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index advanced in March for the first time in three months. The business research group said attitudes improved toward current conditions, but expectations for coming months declined. The group said consumer confidence was "holding up remarkably well," despite the war in Ukraine and anticipation of 7.9% inflation over the next year, an all-time high in Conference Board surveys.
Employer demand for workers remained elevated in February with 11.3 million job openings, the Bureau of Labor Services reported. The measure hit a record 11.4 million in December and is nearly twice the level of unemployed job seekers. The labor turnover report also showed that workers quit 4.4 million jobs in February, a sign that they are confident in finding other - presumably better - jobs. Wednesday The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 6.9% in the last quarter of 2021, according to a final estimate of the gross domestic product. The growth rate was down from 7% in the previous estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, mostly because the annual rate of consumer spending grew by 2.5%, instead of the earlier estimate of 3.1%. Measured year to year, the economy rose 5.5% from the end of 2020. Adjusting for inflation, GDP was 3.1% higher than its pre-pandemic peak. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 5.5% increase from the year before. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third week in a row and the seventh time in eight weeks, leveling off to where it had been before the pandemic. The level was 45% below the all-time rolling average for new claims. The four-week average of insured unemployment reached its lowest level since 1970. The Labor Department said 1.8 million Americans were claiming unemployment compensation in the latest week, one-tenth of what it was the year before.
By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.2% in February, compared to a 0.5% gain in personal income. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that adjusted for inflation, personal consumption declined for the third time in four months, although it was still 4.6% above where it was just before the pandemic began two years earlier. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge jumped 6.4% from the year before, the biggest one-year increase since 1982. Month-to-month, core inflation - excluding energy and food prices - rose at the slowest pace since September.
Friday Employers added 431,000 jobs in March, down from a 562,000 average for the previous 15 months, but it edged U.S. payroll employment within 1.6 million jobs of where it left off before the pandemic. The leisure and hospitality industry added 26% of the jobs in March but was still 1.5 million or 8.7% short of its level two years ago. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.6%, near its February 2020 rate of 3.5%. Some 5.7 million Americans were not in the labor force in March but wanted a job, according to household surveys, including 874,000 who said Covid prevented them from seeking work.
Landaas & Company newsletter March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Chris Evers Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 21-25, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday No major announcements Wednesday New home sales for the month of February were below the consensus estimate and the prior month reading of 788,000. This is a volatile data point which ran as high as 1 million through the back end of 2020. New sales are still trending above the pre-pandemic level. There is 6.3 months' worth of inventory of new homes available and the median price is $400,600. The median sale price for 2021 was $398,000 and $336,000 for 2020. Thursday February durable goods orders slid 2.2% following four consecutive monthly increases. Transportation equipment, which is often volatile, dragged on the headline number as it fell 5.6% for the month. Durable goods ex-transportation slid 0.6%. Inventories continue to build for the 13th straight month as stockpiles of durable goods rose 0.4% to $478.5 billion.
The 4-week moving average of unemployment claims continues to trend lower following a short-lived increase in January. The single week claim data of 187,000 (week ending March 19th) was the lowest level since September of 1969. The number of insured unemployed also maintained its path lower as it reported the lowest total since January of 1970. Friday Consumer sentiment continues to trend lower on the back of high inflation. One third of respondents expect their overall financial position to worsen in the year ahead, the highest level ever recorded. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 14169, up 275 points or 2.0% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4543, up 80 points or 1.8% Dow Jones Industrial – 34862, up 107 points or 0.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.49%, up 0.34 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 14-18, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday Signs of moderation appeared in wholesale inflation numbers for February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Producer Price Index rose 0.8% from January, but that was down from 1.2% the month before. Goods prices accounted for all of the February increase fueled by a 15% spurt in gasoline prices. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the core PPI rose just 0.2% from January, the smallest gain since Feb. 2020. Year to year, the headline PPI rose 10% in February, unchanged from January; the core index was up 6.6% following a 6.8% gain in January and 7% in December and November. Wednesday U.S. consumer spending slowed in February, as retail sales rose 0.3%, according to the Commerce Department. That was down from a 4.9% burst in January. Sales rose in seven of 13 retail categories, led by gains of 5% at gas stations and 2.5% at bars and restaurants. Excluding gas station sales, which include rising prices, retail sales declined 0.2% from January. Total sales were up nearly 18% from the year before, including gains of 36% for gas stations, 33% for bars and restaurants and 31% for clothing stores. Retail spending accounts for about two-thirds of consumer spending which drives about two-thirds of the gross domestic product.
Thursday The pace of housing starts rose 6.8% in February, reaching its fastest growth rate since June 2006, the Commerce Department reported. At the same time, building permits declined 1.9% from a 16-year high in January. The annual rate of houses under construction rose to the highest level since 1973. Outside of the housing bubble in 2005-2006, single-family housing construction also was at elevations last seen nearly 50 years ago.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the fifth time in six weeks, reaching 40% below the 55-year average. Data from the Labor Department continued to show a tight job market in which employers are reluctant to let workers go. Some 1.4 million unemployed individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, the lowest level since 1970, compared to a record 23 million in May 2020.
U.S. industrial output expanded in February, rising 0.5% from January to reach its highest level since the end of 2018. The gain was powered by a 1.2% increase in manufacturing production, which was broadly distributed except in the automotive sector, still besieged by a shortage of computer chips, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization—considered a leading indicator of inflation—rose to its highest level since April 2019 but remained well below its 50-year average. Friday The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in February, following a decline of 0.5% in January and a gain of 0.8% in December. The business research group noted that indicators did not yet reflect the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which could add supply-chain costs and higher prices for energy, food and metals to a U.S. economy already facing high inflation, rising interest rates and tight labor markets. The group lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 to 3%, down from 3.5% a month ago, still ahead of pre-pandemic rates of 2%.
Existing home sales slowed in February, down 7.2% from January and 2.4% behind their year-ago pace, the National Association of Realtors reported. As sales eased, the supply of houses on the market grew slightly to 1.7 months’ worth, which was still historically low. The median sales price rose 15% from the year before to $357,300, the 120th consecutive year-t0-year gain. The Realtors said high prices and rising mortgage rates were making home-buying less affordable for more America...
Landaas & Company newsletter March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 7-11, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday The Federal Reserve reported a 1.9% annual rate of rising consumer debt outstanding in January, including a 0.3% drop in credit card debt. That marked the first decrease in so-called revolving credit since April 2021, as consumer confidence in using credit cards has been recovering from a collapse at the onset of the COVID pandemic. Since February 2020, credit card debt was down $55 billion through January, about 5% below where it started the pandemic. It took credit card levels nearly a decade to recover from the Great Recession. Tuesday The U.S. trade deficit widened by 9.4% to a record $89.7 billion in January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. During the month, exports declined by 1.7%, led by pharmaceutical preparations and travel services. Meanwhile, imports rose 1.2% to a record $314 billion, driven by automotive goods and oil. Compared to the first month of 2021, the trade gap expanded by 37.7% as exports rose 15.4% and imports grew 21%. Wednesday U.S. employers posted 11.3 million job openings in January, down slightly from a record 11.4 million in December. Demand for workers continued to outstrip supply as the number of unemployed workers seeking jobs in January reached only 6.5 million, according to earlier reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The biggest decline in job postings in January was in hotels and restaurants. The government report showed 4.3 million jobs were vacated by workers who quit, down from a record 4.5 million in December.
Thursday The broadest measure of inflation rose 0.8% in February, about a third of it fueled by a 6.6% increase in gasoline prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index grew at a 12-month rate of 7.9%, the highest year-to-year increase since 8.4% inflation in January 1982. In the previous year, gas prices rose 38%; prices for used vehicles accelerated 41%. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, the core CPI rose 0.5% in February, down from 0.6% in December and January. Compared to the year before, core inflation rose 6.4%, the highest since August 1982.
The Labor Department reported the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in five weeks, though it still remained 38% below its average since 1967. Total claims for the latest week declined 3% from the week before to 1.9 million. The year before, claims totaled 20.8 million. Friday A preliminary look at consumer sentiment in March found the lowest expectations for personal finance in nearly 70 years of surveys and the highest forecasts for inflation since 1981. The longstanding University of Michigan index dipped to a reading of 59.7, down from 62.8 in February and the year before. According to the preliminary survey, consumers were less optimistic about prospects for the economy - except for the labor market. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 12844, down 470 points or 3.5% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4204, down 125 points or 2.9% Dow Jones Industrial – 32943, down 671 points or 2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 2.00%, up 0.28 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter March edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Feb. 28-March 4, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in February following a 12-month low in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s manufacturing index showed rising demand based on new orders and customer backlogs. And though purchasing managers cited continued challenges around staffing and supply deliveries, they were “strongly optimistic” about business prospects in March and April. According to the ISM, the manufacturing sector has been expanding for 21 months in a row.
Housing led a 1.3% increase in the pace of construction spending in January, reaching a record annual rate of nearly $1.7 trillion. The Commerce Department reported residential spending rose 1.3% from the December pace and was up 13.2% from January 2021. Construction spending for manufacturing was up 8.4% for the month and 31.4% from January 2021. Wednesday No major announcements Thursday The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in February for the 21st month in a row but the pace of growth slowed for the third time in as many months. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index registered the slowest pace in at least 12 months. Purchasing managers surveyed for the index reported continued challenges from supply chains, labor supply and inflation. The index showed supplier deliveries taking longer and employment contracting.
The Commerce Department said factory orders rose 1.4% in January, the 20th increase in the last 26 months and 15% ahead of the same time last year. Demand for commercial aircraft and motor vehicles boosted activity. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1% for the month and 12.7% from the year before. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 1% from December and 10.4% from January 2021.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the fourth week in a row, reaching 38% below the 55-year average. A Labor Department report showed total claims down 3% in the latest week, dropping below 2 million. The year before, claims exceeded 18.5 million.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual pace of 6.6% in the fourth quarter. That resulted from the number of hours worked rising at a 2.4% pace while output grew at 9.1%. The full-year productivity growth for 2021 was 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2020 and just below the average rate of 2.1% since 1948. Since the pandemic started in the first quarter of 2020, output has grown 4.1% while the number of hours worked declined 0.4%. Friday U.S. employers added 678,000 jobs in February, still down 2.1 million or 1.4% from the level two years ago, just before the pandemic. According to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the leisure and hospitality field accounted for 26% of the employment gains in February. Leisure and hospitality employers remain 9% below their pre-pandemic payroll levels and account for 71% of the missing jobs. The bureau’s household survey showed the unemployment rate declining to 3.8%, the lowest since hitting a 50-year low of 3.5% in February 2020. The rate reached a record high of 14.7% in April 2020.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13313, down 381 points or 2.8% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4329, down 56 points or 1.3% Dow Jones Industrial – 33615, down 444 points or 1.3% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.74%, down 0.25 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter February edition now available. Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Feb. 21-25, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday Markets closed for Presidents Day Tuesday Housing prices continued to far outpace overall inflation in December with a year-to-year increase of nearly 19%, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It marked the largest calendar-year jump in prices in 34 years of data but was also the first time in several months the pace of gains didn’t decelerate from the month before. An analyst for S&P said the 20 cities tracked by the index reached all-time high prices in 2021. He also forecast that rising mortgage interest rates will slow the trend.
The Conference Board reported a decline in its consumer confidence index in February, the second setback in a row. Consumers had a slightly higher opinion of current economic conditions but lower expectations for the next six months. The business research group said survey results suggest a moderation in economic growth in the first half of 2022 but that consumers remain relatively confident and don’t anticipate the economy will get worse. Consumers registered more concerns about inflation in February after two months of declines. Wednesday No major releases Thursday The Commerce Department said the sales pace of new homes declined in January to an annual rate of 801,000. That was down 4.5% from December’s rate and 19% behind the pace in January 2021. The median price for a new house was $423,300, up 13% from the year before. And the number of houses for sale climbed past 400,000 for the time since August 2008.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims declined for the third week in a row and was 36% below the 55-year average, according to new Labor Department data. Barely 2 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from nearly 20 million the year before.
The U.S. economy rose at a slightly faster pace than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product expanding at a 7% annual rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending, which drives about 70% of economic activity, rose at an annual rate of 3.1% from October through December, down from an initial estimate of 3.3%. For all of 2021, the economy grew by 5.7%, adjusting for inflation, the fastest expansion since 1984. Friday Personal spending rose in January by 2.1% following a 0.8% decline in the month of December. This outpaced the 1.5% consensus estimate. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE price index rose to 6.1% year over year due to a 0.6% increase for the month. Personal income was unchanged for the month in nominal terms.
New orders for durable goods rose 1.6% in January and the December data point was revised from a 0.9% decline to a 1.2% gain. Increase in non-defense aircraft orders accounted for most of the headline rise. If transportation-based orders are stripped out, the January increase comes down to 0.7%. Inventories as well as unfilled orders also rose for the 12th consecutive month.
The University of Michigan reading of consumer sentiment rose to 62.8 from a previous February reading of 61.7. This remains at one of the lowest levels in the last decade as consumers weigh high inflation data and rising interest rates. MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK
Nasdaq – 13695, up 147 points or 1.1% Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4385, up 36 points or 0.8% Dow Jones Industrial – 34059, down 21 points or 0.1% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.99%, up 0.05 point
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Landaas & Company newsletterFebruary edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Feb. 14-18, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS
Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
Inflation on the wholesale level rose 1% in January, another sign from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of heightened demand and supply-chain constraints amid the pandemic. The Producer Price Index rose at the fastest clip since May and was up 9.7% from January 2021, though that was lower than the 12-month pace in December and November. For the month, demand rose 1.3% for goods and 0.7% for services. A core rate of wholesale inflation, stripping out volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, rose 0.9% for the month and 6.9% from the year before.
Wednesday
Retail sales jumped 3.8% in January, reflecting both rising prices and continued consumer demand. The Commerce Department reported that eight of the 13 retail categories increased revenue in January, led by online retailers, furniture stores and car dealers. Decliners included sporting goods and hobby stores, gas stations and bars and restaurants. Compared to 12 months earlier, retail sales grew 13%, with only appliance stores declining. Since January 2021, gas station sales rose 33.4%; revenue at bars and restaurants rose 27%.
The Federal Reserve reported continued gains in industrial production in January, boosted by weather-related surges among utilities. Production rose 1.4%, the third increase in four months, with utilities growing 9.9% as an extraordinarily cold January followed an unseasonably warm December. Total output was up 4.1% from the year before and reached 2.1% ahead of where it was just before the pandemic. Industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 76.6%, the highest since March 2019 but still considerably below the 50-year average rate of 79.5%.
Thursday
The Commerce Department delivered mixed signals on housing in January, when the annual rate of single-family building permits rose and housing starts declined. Permits, which indicate plans for future construction, rose to the highest rate since May 2006. However, housing starts slipped 4.1% from the December rate, with starts for single-family houses declining 5.6%. At the same time, 785,000 single-family houses were under construction in January, the highest rate since April 2007. Lack of housing stock has sent home prices soaring far beyond overall inflation levels.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the second week in a row, dipping 34% below the 55-year average. An indication of employers’ reluctance to let go of workers, the rolling average reached its lowest point since 1969 in December. Total jobless claims fell 1.7% in the latest week to nearly 2.1 million. That’s down from 18.9 million the year before.
Friday
With mortgage rates starting to rise, existing home sales rose 6.7% in January to an annual rate of 6.5 million houses, which was 2.3% behind the year-ago pace. The National Association of Realtors said inventories reached a record low of 860,000 houses, about 1.3 months of stock at current sales rates. As a result, the median sales price rose to $350,000, up 15.4% from the year before and the 119th consecutive month of year-to-year price increases.
U.S. economic growth slowed in January, according to a 0.3% decline in the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators. The business research group cited weaker signals from jobless claims, consumer outlook, stock prices and hours worked in manufacturing. It blamed the setbacks on the omicron variant, rising prices and continued kinks in supply chains. At the same time, the Conference Board pointed to “widespread strengths” among the indicators and forecast a lower, though still robust, 3.5% increase in GDP compared to the first quarter on 2021.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 13548, down 243 points or 1.8% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4349, down 70 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34079, down 659 points or 1.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.93%, down 0.02 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Reuben Neese) Week in Review (Feb. 7-11, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
The Federal Reserve reported a 5.9% rise in consumer debt outstanding in 2021, including a 6.6% increase in credit card debt. Credit card debt rose $75 billion or 7.8% since hitting a four-year low in January 2021. The level was still $59 billion or 5.4% short of where it peaked just before the COVID-19 pandemic. An indicator of consumer confidence, credit card debt stood about where it was in mid-2017. It took nearly a decade for credit card debt to recover from the Great Recession.
Tuesday
The U.S. trade deficit rose 1.8% in December as imports led by cell phones, cars and crude oil outpaced exports including pharmaceutical preps, automotive parts and plane engines. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the full-year deficit widened 27% to a record $859 billion, reflecting the continued uneven recovery from the global recession triggered by the pandemic. Since 2020, the value of imports into the U.S. rose by 20.5% while exports to other countries grew by 18.5%.
Wednesday
No major releases
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the first time in six weeks, which was the lowest level since 1969. Data from the Labor Department shows the latest four-week average was 32% below the all-time average, though still 21% higher than the low point just before the pandemic began. More than 2 million Americans were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, up 1.5% from the week before but down from 20.2 million the year before.
The broadest measure of inflation showed 12-month price increases rising in January to their highest level in decades. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% from December, the same gain as in December, but down from 0.7% in November and 0.9% in October. Year to year, inflation rose 7.5%, the most since February 1982. Top drivers of the price hikes: Groceries, electricity, housing rents and used cars. Excluding volatile costs for energy and food, the index was 6% higher than in January 2021, the highest one-year increase since August 1982.
Friday
The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment slipped from the end of January to its lowest level in a decade. Inflation expectations weighed down consumer outlooks, with nearly half of the households surveyed saying they expect their inflation-adjusted incomes to decline in the next year. Consumers reporting rising personal wealth dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, largely because of falling expectations for stock price increases in 2022.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 13791, down 307 points or 2.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4418, down 82 points or 1.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34737, down 352 points or 1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.96%, up 0.03 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 31-Feb. 4, 2022) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
No major reports
Tuesday
The manufacturing sector continued expanding in January, though at a slower rate, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s index, based on surveys of industry purchase managers, decelerated for the third consecutive month but continued to signal growth, as it has every month since April 2020. Survey respondents reported for the third month in a row that delivery bottlenecks were easing. Amid strong demand, manufacturers said hiring and production has been hampered by COVID-19, quits and retirements.
The gap between the number of job openings and unemployed job seekers reached a record high of 4.6 million in December. According to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report, employers posted 10.9 million job openings, which continued to outnumber active job hunters. Hotels and restaurants had the most postings. Both the number and rate at which Americans lost jobs through layoff or discharge were at all-time lows. In December, 4.3 million workers quit their jobs, down from a record 4.5 million in November.
Housing led a 0.2% increase in construction spending in December, reaching a seasonally adjust annual rate 0f $1.64 trillion, an all-time high, not adjusted for inflation. The Commerce Department said residential construction spending rose 1.1% from the month before and 14.7% from December 2020. Spending on single-family housing outpaced increases for multiple-household dwellings.
Wednesday
No major reports
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fifth week in a row after hitting a 52-year low. Reflecting employer resistance to letting workers go, the moving average was 31% below the four-week average since records began in 1967. The Labor Department said 2.1 million Americans claimed jobless benefits overall in the latest week, down 3.4% from the week before and down from 18.5 million the year before.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity rose at an annual rate of 6.6% in the fourth quarter. The swift pace resulted from a 9.2% rate increase in output and a 2.4% rise in hours worked. On average, productivity rose 1.9% in 2021. Since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic, output has risen 4.1% while hours worked declined 0.9%.
The non-manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy kept growing in January, although at a slower pace. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index suggested expansion for the 20th month in a row after contracting in April and May 2020 for the first time in 11 years. Although expanding at a slower rate for the second consecutive month, the index continued to show strong growth. The trade group said its surveys of purchase managers portray a sector driven by demand but challenged by pandemic-related limits on supply chains and staffing.
The Commerce Department said factory orders declined 0.4% in December, the first setback in eight months. Orders were up 16.9% from the end of 2020. The monthly decline was led by transportation equipment, including motor vehicles and commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.1% from November and were up 14.3% from the year before. A proxy for business investments rose 15% from its year-earlier level.
Friday
The U.S. labor market showed continued strength in January despite a surge in COVID cases, adding 467,000 jobs, according to payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The bureau revised November and December numbers to show that employers added 709,000 more jobs in those months than previously reported. Payroll remains 2.9 million jobs or 1.9% lower than in February 2020, just before the pandemic. Leisure and hospitality employers added the bulk of jobs in January but are still 1.8 million or 10% lower than their pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9% in December, down from a record 14.7% in April 2020 but up from 3.5% just before the pandemic. According to household surveys, the pandemic forced 6 million people out of work in January, up from 4.7 million in December; it prevented 1.8 million people from looking for jobs, up from 1.1 million in December.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 14098, up 327 points or 2.4% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4501, up 69 points or 1.6% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35089, up 364 points or 1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.93%, up 0.15 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 24-28) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Increases in home prices continued to far outpace overall inflation in November. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index rose 18.8% from the year before, down from 19% in October and the third monthly deceleration since peaking at 20% in August. The recent slowdown in home price gains is the first since the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. An analyst affiliated with the index said rising mortgage rates should affect price increases.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index declined in January for the first time in four months. Although consumers gave higher marks to current economic conditions, their outlook for the near-term economy fell. The business research group said the mixed signals suggested the economy entered 2022 on solid footing but the growth rate would moderate in the first quarter. An economist for the group cited the pandemic and rising prices as challenges to confidence and spending in the near term.
Wednesday
Full-year 2021 new home sales of more than 760,000 new houses stayed above the mark just before the Great Recession, though they slid from more than 800,000 in 2020. The Commerce Department estimated the median price of a new house rose past $390,000 in 2022, up 17% from 2020. Nearly half (48%) of the new houses sold went for $400,000 or more, up from 34% in 2020.
Thursday
The Commerce Department reported durable goods orders declined 0.9% in December for the first setback in three months. Slower orders were widespread, led by commercial aircraft. Compared to December 2020, orders for long-lasting factory goods rose nearly 21%. Excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 16% from the year before. A proxy for business investment gained 15% from December 2020.
The U.S. economy rose at an annual pace of 6.9% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.3% in the previous three months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said growth in consumer spending, business inventories and exports fueled the increase. On a full-year inflation-adjusted basis, gross domestic product rose 5.7% from 2020, the biggest increase since 1984. The average annual gain since records began in 1948 was 3.5%.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row after hitting a 52-year low around Christmas. Still, the average was under 25o,000 new applications, down from 5.3 million in April 2020 and 33% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department said 2.1 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down from 19 million the year before.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales fell for the second month in a row, dropping 3.8% in December, largely because would-be buyers had fewer houses to choose. The trade group also blamed rising mortgage interest rates, which it contends will slow demand for housing in 2022. The group’s economist forecast that just under 6 million houses will be sold in 2022, which would be a decline of 2.8%
Friday
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said consumer spending fell 0.6% in December, the first decline since last February, even though personal income rose 0.3%, including a 0.7% gain in wages and compensation. A key driver of U.S. economic output, personal spending on goods fell for the month, while spending on services rose marginally. The personal consumption expenditures index, which the Fed follows for inflation, rose 5.8% from December 2020, the steepest incline since July of 1982. The monthly increase in the PCE was 0.4% in December, following two months at 0.6%.
The latest surge in pandemic cases and the highest inflation in 40 years are taking a toll on American consumers, according to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January. The sentiment index hit its lowest point since November 2011, with consumers indicating their greatest concern is that inflation will keep rising faster than their incomes.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 13771, up 2 points or 0.0% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4432, up 34 points or 0.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34726, up 461 points or 1.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.78%, up 0.04 point
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Landaas & Company newsletterJanuary edition now available.
Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 17-21, 20221) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
Markets closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
U.S. housing starts and building permits quickened pace in December, not as brisk as earlier in 2021 but still near their levels just after the 2006 housing bubble. The Commerce Department said the annual rate of housing starts exceeded 1.7 million units for the first time since March. Permits authorizing future construction rose to nearly 1.9 million, the most since last January. Critical construction of single-family houses, which could help alleviate ongoing supply issues for the housing market, continued to advance. In December, nearly 800,000 single-family residences were under construction.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the third week in a row after hitting its lowest level since 1969. Despite the recent uptick, the layoffs indicator shows employers remain reluctant to let workers go. The moving average of 231,000 claims was 38% below the all-time average dating back to 1967. The Labor Department reported 2.1 million ongoing claims for jobless benefits, up 9% from the week before, but down from 16.9 million the same time last year.
Full-year existing home sales reached the highest level since 2006. The National Association of Realtors said even though the pace of sales slowed in December, the full 2021 count of 6.12 million houses sold was up 8.5% from 2020. Sales rose as supply dwindled to 910,000 houses on the market at the end of December, the lowest inventory in 22 years of records. As a result of low supply and ongoing demand, the median sales price jumped, for the 118th month in a row, rising 15.8% from December 2020 to $358,000. An economist for the Realtors said rising mortgage rates will increasingly curb the enthusiasm of home buyers, but that should also help inventory increase, thus moderating price gains.
Friday
The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.8% in December following 0.7% gains in both November and October. The slight acceleration suggests continued economic expansion into the first quarter of 2022, according to the business research group. Despite resistance from the omicron COVID variant, the tight labor market, inflationary pressures and expected interest rate increases, the Conference Board said the U.S. economy should grow at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter and 3.5% for all of 2022. The full-year growth rate would be both “robust,” the group said, and well above trends before the pandemic.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 13769, down 1125 points or 7.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4398, down 265 points or 5.7% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34266, down 1646 points or 4.6% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.75%, down 0.03 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Mike Hoelzl (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 10-14, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
The broadest measure of inflation showed prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 1982. The Consumer Price Index rose 7% in the 12 months since December 2020, though the 0.5% gain from November was the lowest in three months. A 50% year-to-year increase in gasoline prices contributed to high inflation, as did a 37% increase in used vehicle prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said gas prices declined from November. The core CPI, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, rose 5.5% from December 2020, the largest increase since 1991.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row after hitting its lowest point since 1969. Considered an indicator of layoffs, the average reached 210,750 claims in the latest week, which was 43% behind the average since 1967 and down from a record high of 5.3 million in April 2020. The Labor Department said 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits the week of Christmas, the latest date available. That was up 13% from the previous week but down from 19.4 million the year before.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics showed wholesale inflation remained high in December, although there were some hints that it might be easing. The Producer Price Index rose 0.2% in December, down from a 1% gain in November and the smallest increase in 13 months. The year-to-year inflation rate was 9.7%, down from 9.8% in November, the highest in 10 years of data. The price index for goods fell for the first time since April 2020, led by a 6% decline for gasoline. Excluding volatile prices for energy, food and trade services, the so-called core PPI rose 0.4% from November and gained 6.9% from December 2020. The one-year rate was unchanged from November and up from 1.3% in 2020.
Friday
Facing surges of inflation and COVID-19, and following earlier-than-usual shopping to combat supply-chain delays, retail spending declined 1.9% in December. The drop-off was widespread. Ten of 13 retail categories posted lower revenue in December, the Commerce Department reported. Compared to the year before, retail spending rose 16.9%. It was up 19.2% since the pandemic began, resulting in a monthly average of 0.9%, more than double the monthly rate of retail spending movement in the previous 20 years.
The Federal Reserve said industrial production contracted by 0.1% in December, the first decline in three months. Production was up 3.7% from December 2020 and 0.6% ahead of its level just before the pandemic. Manufacturing output fell 0.3% from November, including a 1.3% setback in automotive manufacturing. Utilities’ output declined because of unseasonably warm weather, while the mining sector grew through expanded oil and gas production. Capacity utilization, a measure of potential inflation, fell to 76.5%, compared to a 50-year average of 79.6%.
A preliminary December reading of consumer sentiment resulted in the second-lowest level in a decade, according to the University of Michigan. The survey-based index dropped to 68.8 from 70.6 at the end of December. The index hit a 10-year low of 67.4 in November. An economist with the survey cited the omicron COVID variant and inflation as reasons for consumers’ gloomier outlooks. One third of respondents said their finances were worse than the year before, which was only slightly higher than in April 2020, at the onset of the pandemic and lockdowns.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 14894, down 42 points or 0.3% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4663, down 14 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35911, down 320 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.77%, unchanged
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Steve Giles Chris Evers (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Jan. 3-7, 2022) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS
Monday
Housing helped U.S. construction spending rise in November for the eighth time in nine months. The Commerce Department said construction expenditures rose 0.4% to a record annual rate of $1.63 trillion. Spending on residential construction rose 1.2% from the October rate and 16.1% from November 2020. Excluding housing, construction spending declined 0.3% from October and was down 3.3% from the year before.
Tuesday
The Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index signaled expansion in December for the 19th month in a row, although at the slowest pace since last January. Based on surveys of purchasing managers, the index showed most components growing at a reduced rate, but hiring rose faster. Survey respondents said demand for goods remained strong while supply chains continued to bottleneck. The trade group said the index suggests annual U.S. economic growth of 4.4%.
A record number of U.S. employees quit their jobs in November, as demand for workers continued to far outstrip the number of job seekers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 4.5 million workers quit their jobs, which suggests they’re confident of finding better positions. At the same time, employers posted 10.6 million job openings, down 4.8% from October but up 56% from the year before. The margin between openings and unemployed job seekers grew to 3.7 million.
Wednesday
No significant reports
Thursday
A report from the Commerce Department showed manufacturing orders gaining in November for the 18th time in 19 months. The value of orders rose 1.6% from October and was 17% ahead of November 2020. Excluding volatile orders for transportation equipment, orders rose 0.8% for the month and 14% from November 2020. A proxy for business investments was up 15% from the year before.
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose slightly but remained near a half-century low. Average claims were at 204,500, which was 2% below the low level just before the pandemic. The Labor Department said 1.7 million Americans were claiming unemployment benefits in the latest week, down 10% from the week before. A year ago, more than 20 million dislocated workers claimed benefits.
The U.S. trade deficit widened by 19% in November. The $80.2 billion deficit, which detracts from gross domestic product, resulted from the value of imports rising at a faster rate than exports. Imports were up 4.6% from October, while exports rose 0.2%. Year to year, the trade gap rose 29% to nearly $175 billion.
The U.S. services sector kept growing in December, though at a slightly slower rate after a record pace in November, according to the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group’s services index showed the 19th consecutive month of growth following setbacks in April and May of 2020. The pace of expansion slowed for most components of the index, but inventories shrank and prices rose at a faster pace.
Friday
U.S. employers added 199,000 jobs in December, about half as much as analysts expected. The gain compared to a monthly average of 537,000 in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The job level remained 3.6 million or 2.3% below where it was in February 2020. Leisure and hospitality employers continued to add the most jobs, though they had 1.2 million, or 7.2%, fewer jobs than when the pandemic began. The same report showed the unemployment rate dropping to 3.9%, the lowest since 3.5% in February 2020. Of 5.7 million people not in the labor force but wanting a job, 1.1 million reported that the pandemic was preventing them from seeking a job.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 14936, down 709 points or 4.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4677, down 89 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 36232, down 107 points or 0.3% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.77%, up 0.26 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Chris Evers) Week in Review (Dec. 27-31, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
Housing prices continued to track much higher than overall inflation in October. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index rose 19.1% from its year-earlier measure, down from 19.7% in September and 20% in August, which was the highest year-to-year increase in 34 years of data. An economist with the index said the latest data provided more evidence that COVID-19 has helped push more urban apartment dwellers to buy homes in the suburbs. He also noted that such a movement might have happened eventually anyway.
Wednesday
The National Association of Realtors blamed “exorbitant prices” and low inventory for a decline in demand for home purchases in November. The trade group’s tracking of contract signings, the pending home sales index, fell 2.2% from October and was down 2.7% from November 2020. An economist for the Realtors said prospective homebuyers have become more hesitant because of high prices. He said he expects housing supply to improve in 2022, which should help affordability by slowing price gains.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims dropped to its lowest point since October 1969. The measure of employers’ willingness to let workers go was 5% below its nadir heading into the pandemic. It was 46% under the 54-year average, according to Labor Department data, and down from a record high of 5.3 million average claims in April 2020. More than 2 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, up 1.8% from the week before but down from 20.4 million the year before.
Friday
No major releases
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15645, down 8 points or 0.1% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4766, up 40 points or 0.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 36338, up 388 points or 1.1% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.51%, up 0.02 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Kyle Tetting Brian Kilb with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik Week in Review (Dec. 20-24, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators rose 1.1% in November, advancing from gains of 0.8% in October and 0.3% in September. The business research group said the surge in COVID-19 cases as well as inflation and ongoing supply-chain disruptions pose challenges to continued economic growth. At the same time, the group projected strong annualized increases for gross domestic product, including 6.5% in the fourth quarter and 2.2% in the first quarter of 2022.
Tuesday
No major announcements
Wednesday
The U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annual pace of 2.3% in the third quarter of 2021, according to a final estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate for the economy was up from 2.1% in the previous estimate. It rose at a 6.7% clip in the second quarter. Consumer spending rose at a higher rate than previously estimated. Measured year to year, the economy grew 4.9% and was 1% above where it left off 2019, just before the pandemic. The Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation showed a 4.3% increase since the third quarter of 2020, more than double the Fed’s long-range target of 2%.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index rose in December, suggesting continued economic expansion into 2022. The business research group said attitudes toward current conditions remained strong and the near-term outlook strengthened as concerns about inflation and COVID-19 declined from November’s survey.
Existing home sales rose 1.9% in November to an annual rate of 6.5 million houses, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales pace picked up for the third month in a row, though it was still 2% lower than the year before. The trade group said anticipation of higher mortgage rates helped drive November sales. Inventory declined 10% from October to 1. 1 million houses for sale, which was 13% lower than the year before. The median sales price of $353,900 was up 14% from November 2020, marking the 117th consecutive year-to-year increase.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the first time in 11 weeks but remained near the lowest level in 52 years. Data from the Labor Department showed the moving average at 206,250 new applications, 44% below the long-term average and down from a record 5.3 million in April 2020. In all, 2.1 million Americans were claiming jobless benefits in the latest week, down 13% from the week before and down from 21 million the year before.
By far the biggest driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending rose 0.6% in November, outpacing a 0.4% gain in personal income. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal consumption reached 11% above its pre-pandemic peak. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge showed a 5.7% increase from November 2020 – the highest rate since 1982. Excluding volatile prices for fuel and food, the core index increased to 4.7%, the highest since 1989.
The Commerce Department said the annual pace of new home sales rose 12.4% in November, though it still was down 14% from the year before. The volatile indicator was about where it was before the pandemic and on par with sales in mid-2007, before the Great Recession. The supply of new houses on the market remained around six months’ worth. The median price rose 19% from the year before to $416,900. Only 10% of the new houses sold were completely built, vs. 14% in November 2020.
The Commerce Department said orders for durable goods rose 2.5% in November, the sixth increase in seven months. The indicator for manufacturing demand surpassed the pre-pandemic level by 16%. Commercial aircraft and automotive led the increase, but even excluding transportation equipment, orders rose 0.8% from October and were nearly 17% above their year-ago level. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, rose 0.1% for the month and were up 16.5% from the year before.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose in December as households in the lowest third of incomes anticipated raises in 2022. The reading of 70.6 was up from 67.4 in November but shy of the 80.7 posted in December 2020. A university economist said about one in four consumers surveyed said inflation was eating away at their living standards. The economist said it was too early to tell how much the omicron variant of COVID-19 would affect consumer spending.
Friday
Markets and government offices closed for Christmas
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15170, down 460 points or 2.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4621, down 91 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35367, down 604 points or 1.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.40%, down 0.09 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show BOB LANDAAS KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD KENDALL BAUER (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Dec. 13-17, 2021) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS
Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
Inflation on the wholesale level rose 9.6% in November from the year before, the most since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began comparable calculations in 2010. The Producer Price Index added 0.8% from October, led by increased costs for energy, transportation and warehousing. Excluding volatile costs for energy, food and trade services, the core 12-month inflation rate was 6.9%, the highest year-to-year gain since 2014.
Wednesday
The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% rise in retail sales in November, less than half as much as analysts expected. Gas stations led the 13 categories with a monthly gain of 1.7% in sales, helped by increased prices. Electronics and appliance stores led the five categories in which sales declined from October. Compared to the year before, each category advanced, led by a 52% rise for gas stations and a 37% increase in sales at restaurants and bars.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the 10th week in a row to reach the lowest level since November 1969. According to Labor Department data, the average moved to 203,750 new applications, down from a record 5.3 million in April 2020 and 45% below the 54-year average. Some 2.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 26% from the week before but down from 21.3 million the year before.
The U.S. housing industry picked up pace in November. Both housing starts and building permits accelerated, though both remained below 15-year highs set earlier in 2021. The annual rate of housing starts was up nearly 12% from October; initiations of critical single-family houses rose by 11%. Permits rose 3.6% from their pace in October. Single-family permits were up 2.7%, according to Commerce Department data. The number of houses under construction hit an annual rate of nearly 1.5 million in November, the highest since 1973.
U.S. industrial output rose 0.5% in November, reaching its highest level since September 2019, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing output advanced 0.7% with widespread gains, led by automotive. November was manufacturing’s biggest month of production since January 2019. Overall capacity utilization rose to 76.8%, the highest in two years. An early indicator of inflationary pressure, capacity usage remained below the long-term average of 79.6%.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15170, down 460 points or 2.9% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4621, down 91 points or 1.9% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35367, down 604 points or 1.7% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.40%, down 0.09 point
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Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Dec. 6-10, 2021) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS
Monday
No major releases
Tuesday
The U.S. trade gap narrowed 18% to $67.1 billion in October from a record $81.4 billion in September. Exports far outpaced imports as supply-chain disruptions hampered goods coming into U.S. markets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the value of exports rose 8% in October, while imports rose by less than 1%. Through the end of October, the trade deficit widened 30% from year before, with exports rising 18% and imports rising 21%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said worker productivity declined at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter, the biggest setback since 1960. The annual growth rate for output rose 1.8% in the quarter while the pace of hours worked rose 7.4%. Since the third quarter of 2021, productivity fell 0.6%, the biggest decline since 1993. The report showed increased productivity through the first seven quarters of the pandemic, with output growing 1.8% while hours worked fell 1%.
The Federal Reserve Board reported a sixth consecutive rise in consumer credit card debt outstanding in October. Total debt, including vehicle financing and student loans, rose at a 4.6% annual rate from September, but revolving credit, which mostly includes credit cards, gained at a rate of 7.8%. The level of credit card debt suggests consumers’ willingness to spend. In October, it was still more than $80 billion or 7% below where it was just before the pandemic.
Wednesday
U.S. employers posted a near-record 11 million job openings in October, ticking up for the first time in three months. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed demand for workers continued to outpace the number of Americans out of work and seeking jobs. Hiring remained steady, while layoffs and firings changed little from September. About 4.2 million workers quit jobs in October, indicating the confidence workers have in finding new positions. In September, a record 4.4 million workers quit.
Thursday
The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continued to reflect the tight labor market, falling for the ninth week in a row to within 5% of its low point just before the pandemic. The average dipped 41% below the 54-year average, according to Labor Department data. The latest week of claims was the lowest since September 1969. Just over 1.9 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, down 15% from the week before, compared to 19.6 million the year before.
Friday
The broadest measure of inflation rose 0.8% in November, down from 0.9% in October. Price gains were broad and led by a 6.1% jump in gasoline prices and a 2.5% increase for used cars. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said its Consumer Price Index grew at a 12-month rate of 6.8%, the highest since June 1982. Year to year, gas prices rose 58% and used car prices rose 31%. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy products, the core CPI rose 4.9% from November 2020, its widest one-year advance since June 1991.
Consumer sentiment rebounded slightly from December and is on par with household outlooks since August, the University of Michigan reported. A preliminary look at survey data for December showed a remarkable disparity between the relative optimism of lower-income families and pessimism among middle- and upper-income respondents. A university economist said expectations for pay raises among the lowest third of earners were the highest since 1991. About one in four respondents overall reported that higher prices were eroding their living standards.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15631, up 545 points or 3.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4712, up 174 points or 3.8% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35972, up 1392 points or 4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.49%, up 0.15 point
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2021 Investment Outlook Seminar
Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Nov. 29-Dec. 3, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
Residential real estate sales appear to be headed for a 15-year high, according pending home sales data in October from the National Association of Realtors. The trade group’s index on contract signings indicated a 7.5% rise in commitments in October, though it was down 1.4% from the annual rate in October 2020. The Realtors forecast full-year sales in excess of 6 million fo 2021. And while low inventory has been pushing prices higher, the group said demand stays robust because of rising rents and expectations for higher mortgage rates.
Tuesday
Hot housing prices cooled their pace slightly in September, with the year-to-year increase slipping to 19.5% from a record 19.8% in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Housing prices continued to far outpace the rate of overall inflation. An economist with the index said the latest data provided further evidence that COVID-19 pushed more urban apartment renters toward suburban home ownership. The spokesman repeated an observation that housing inflation may be slowing down.
Concerns about inflation and COVID-19 tugged down consumer confidence in November, the Conference Board reported. The business research group said even though Americans lowered their expectations for job prospects and income, their holiday spending should be relatively strong, and the economy should continue to expand into early 2022. What follows that, the group said, will depend on continued uncertainties over prices and the pandemic.
Wednesday
Manufacturing expansion picked up pace in November as purchase managers surveyed by the Institute for Supply Management expressed optimism 10 times for every comment of caution. The trade group’s manufacturing index signaled growth for the 18th month in a row. The report included “some indications of slight labor and supplier delivery improvement” amid ongoing historic challenges to supply chains caused by the market upheavals of the pandemic.
Housing led a 0.2% increase in the pace of construction spending in October, which reached another record annual rate, nearly $1.6 trillion. The Commerce Department reported residential spending — accounting for 49% of all construction outlays — rose 0.5% from the September pace and was up 16% from October 2020. Single-family housing jumped 23% from the year-ago pace. Spending on manufacturing construction rose 13% from October 2020 while expenditures for lodging declined 34%.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the eighth week in a row, dropping 36% below the 54-year average. A Labor Department report showed the average for first-time applications — a measure of layoffs — at its lowest point in the pandemic, though still 14% higher than just before employment plunged in March 2020. Overall, 2.3 million Americans claimed unemployment compensation in the latest week, down from 20.8 million the year before.
Friday
U.S. employers added 210,000 jobs in November, the least since December and less than half the monthly rate of 555,000 so far in 2021. Since April 2020, 18.5 million jobs have returned to the economy, still 3.9 million or 2.6% shy of the mark in February 2020. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only transportation-and-warehousing and financial activities gained enough jobs to be above pre-pandemic levels. The leisure-and-hospitality field remained down 1.3 million jobs or 7.9% from before the pandemic. The bureau’s household survey showed the unemployment rate declining to 4.2% from 4.6% in October. That was down from a record 14.8% in April 2020. In February 2020, the rate was 3.5%, the lowest since 1969.
The service sector of the U.S. economy expanded in November for the 18th month in a row, at the fastest pace on records kept by the Institute for Supply Management. The trade group said its services index components for business activity and new orders also hit all-time highs. Purchase managers surveyed by the group reported ongoing challenges with capacity, labor, materials and logistics as customer demands continued to outpace supplies.
Despite a drop-off in requests for commercial aircraft, U.S. factory orders rose in October for the 17th time in 18 months. Orders were up 1% overall and 1.6% excluding the volatile transportation category. Since October 2020, total orders rose 17%; excluding transportation, orders rose 14%. Core capital goods orders, considered a proxy for business investments, rose 0.7% for the month and 16% from October 2020.
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15085, down 406 points or 2.6% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4538, down 56 points or 1.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34580, down 320 points or 0.9% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.34%, down 0.14 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available.
2021 Investment Outlook Seminar
Advisors on This Week’s Show BOB LANDAAS KYLE TETTING (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik)
In a special Thanksgiving Money Talk Podcast, Bob Landaas and Kyle Tetting, investment advisors from Landaas & Company, discuss wise ways investors can plan to charitably share their wealth. Among the topics: * Gifting appreciated securities * Qualified charitable distributions from retirement accounts * Donor-advised funds
Learn more
IRS Publication 526, Charitable ContributionsCharitable Contributions, IRS Tax Topic
An IRS FAQ on qualified charitable distributions from IRAs
ONLINE GUIDES FOR SCRUTINIZING CHARITIES: * BBB Wise Giving Alliance * Charity Navigator * Charity Watch
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 15492, down 565 points or 3.5% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4595, down 103 points or 2.2% * Dow Jones Industrial – 34899, down 703 points or 2% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.49%, down 0.05 point
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Landaas & Company newsletter November edition now available.
2021 Investment Outlook Seminar
Advisors on This Week’s Show Bob Landaas Kyle Tetting Art Rothschild Paige Radke (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Nov. 15-19, 2021) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports
Monday
No major announcements
Tuesday
Retail sales continued broad gains in October, rising 1.7% from September and up 21.4% from just before the pandemic. Other than a decline for clothing stores, sales rose in October for each of the 13 retail categories. Online retailers, gas stations, appliance stores and home-and-garden centers led the gainers. Overall retail sales remained above their pre-pandemic level for the 16th month in a row, according to Commerce Department figures. Sales for bars and restaurants, which were hard hit by lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic, stayed above their pre-pandemic mark for the seventh consecutive month.
The Federal Reserve reported a 1.6% gain in industrial production in October, finally pushing output above its level in February 2020, just before the pandemic. The increase followed a 1.3% decline in September, resulting from Hurricane Ida. Automakers accounted for half of the 1.2% production rise in manufacturing. Industries’ capacity utilization rate, an early indicator of inflation, rose for the sixth time in seven months, to 76.4%, just barely above the February 2020 rate. It remained well below the long-term average rate of 79.6%.
Wednesday
Housing construction data signaled mixed results in October, as the annual pace of building permits and housing starts receded from 15-year highs reached earlier in 2021. The annual rate for starts declined 0.7% from September to 1.5 million houses but was up 0.4% from the year before. Notably, completions of single-family houses were down 17% from a recent peak in March, though they were still on pace with early 2008, according to data from the Commerce Department. The annual rate of building permits rose 4% in October and was 3.4% ahead of the year-earlier rate. Interest in housing of five units or more helped boost the pace of permits.
Thursday
The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims declined for the sixth week in a row, sinking 27% below the 54-year average. Labor Department data showed the four-week average at 272,750 applications, still 30% above where it was just before the pandemic. The average was down from a record high of 5.3 million in April 2020. Total claims rose to 3.2 million, largely because of backdated figures from California tied to pandemic relief programs that expired in September. Total claims reached 20.8 million the year before.
The Conference Board said its leading economic indicators rose again in October, up 0.9% after gains of 0.1% in September and 0.7% in August. The business research group said eight of the 10 components of its index contributed to the measure’s rise; only the average workweek and consumers’ outlook detracted. Despite possible headwinds from rising prices and supply chain bottlenecks, the Conference Board forecast a 5% annual growth rate for GDP in the fourth quarter and a “still historically robust” 2.6% in the first three months of 2022.
Friday
No major announcements
MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK * Nasdaq – 16057, up 196 points or 1.2% * Standard & Poor’s 500 – 4698, up 15 points or 0.3% * Dow Jones Industrial – 35602, down 498 points or 1.4% * 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.54%, down 0.05 point
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