Academy Securities: Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast: Recent Episodes
Academy Securities
Geopolitical & Macro Strategy discussions focusing on risks around the globe that have the capacity to impact capital markets and the world economy
Introduction
U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes
U.S. Ratchets Up Pressure on Cuba
Russia/Ukraine War
China Increases Patrols Around Taiwan
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Talks Begin with Iran in Switzerland
Pathway Forward in Cuba
Russia/Ukraine War
China | U.S. Economic Tensions
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
End of Hostilities on all Fronts, Including in Lebanon
Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Nuclear Program
60-Day Talks and Pathway to a Final Deal
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Talks Continue with Iran
U.S. Ramps up Pressure on Cuba
Russia/Ukraine War
China | U.S. Summit
U.S. Strikes in Nigeria
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
U.S. 14-Point Memorandum of Understanding
Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Nuclear Program
Israel/Lebanon Ceasefire
Pathway to Talks and a Final Deal with Iran
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Ceasefire in Iran
Talks with Cuba
Update on Russia/Ukraine War
Upcoming China | U.S. Summit
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Objectives of the War
Israel and Hezbollah
The Strait of Hormuz
Iranian Nuclear Material
Pathway to a Final Deal
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
War with Iran
Crisis in Cuba
Update on Russia/Ukraine War
China | U.S. Summit Delayed
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Objectives of U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran
Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes
Risk of Escalation in the Region
Potential for Regime Change
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
U.S. and Israel Launch Strikes on Iran
Extent of Retaliation by Iran
Risk of Regional Escalation
Potential for Regime Change
Macroeconomic Implications
Introduction
Nuclear Talks and the Likelihood of a Conflict with Iran
What Comes Next For Cuba?
Russia/Ukraine War Update
China, Taiwan, and the Philippines
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Protests in Iran
Regime's Response to the Crisis
Possible U.S. Action in Iran
What Comes Next for the Regime
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
U.S. Captures Maduro
Protests in Iran
Status of the Russia/Ukraine Peace Discussions
Chinese Wargame Exercises Around Taiwan
Opportunities for the U.S. in Africa
Macroeconomic Implication
Introduction
Will Venezuela strikes result in removing Maduro in 2026?
Russia/Ukraine peace in 2026?
Will the ceasefire in Gaza/Lebanon hold in 2026?
China/Taiwan tensions continue in 2026?
Will Russia and China expand their footprints in Africa in 2026?
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
National Production for National Security
U.S. Initiatives in Rare Earths, Critical Minerals, Chips, and Electricity
Changing Priorities to Highlight Defense of the Homeland
Increased Pressure on Latin America
Opportunities for Investment
Macroeconomic Implications
Introduction
Status of the Ceasefire in Gaza
Update on the War in Ukraine
Tensions Between China and the U.S. Over Rare Earths
U.S. Increases Pressure on Latin America
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Russia’s Drone and Aircraft Incursions into NATO Countries
Israel Expands its Operations in Gaza City
Tensions Between China and the Philippines Continue
U.S. Strikes on Venezuelan Drug Boats
Telecom Threat in NYC
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Russia | Ukraine Peace Discussions
Israel Commences Operation to Occupy Gaza City
Tensions Between China and the Philippines
U.S. Deploys Naval and Marine Corps Forces to the Caribbean
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Russia | Ukraine Peace Discussions
Israel Commences Operation to Occupy Gaza City
Tension Between China and the Philippines
U.S. Deploys Naval and Marine Corps Forces to the Caribbean
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Israel’s Preemptive Strikes on Iran
Iranian Missile Attacks on Israel
U.S. Involvement in Defending Israel
Escalation Scenarios
Potential for a Nuclear Deal
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Ceasefire Between India and Pakistan
Iran Nuclear Discussions
U.S. Nuclear Posture and Missile Defense
Russia | Ukraine Peace Talks
China | U.S. Trade Deal
Macroeconomic Impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Israel Returns to War in Gaza
U.S. | Iran Nuclear Talks
Ceasefire Discussions Regarding War in Ukraine
Tensions with China over Tariffs and Taiwan
Macroeconomic Implications
Conclusion
Introduction
Status of the ceasefire discussions in Gaza
U.S. applies pressure on Iran
Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia
Tensions over tariffs with China
Gray zone concerns
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
U.S. priorities in space
Artemis program and U.S. return to the moon
Competition with China and Russia in space
Commercial opportunities and rare earth minerals
Space Force
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
Introduction
Status of the ceasefire in Gaza
Potential for U.S. engagement with Iran
Update on the war between Russia and Ukraine
Tensions over tariffs with China
U.S. interest in Greenland
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
Uncertainty in Syria in 2025
Potential for a Ceasefire in Gaza in 2025
Engagement with Iran in 2025
Likelihood of a Ceasefire Between Russia and Ukraine in 2025
Tensions Between China and Taiwan/the Philippines Continue in 2025
Macroeconomic Implications
Introduction
Assad regime falls in Syria
Update on the war in Gaza and the ceasefire in Lebanon
U.S. engagement with Iran in 2025
Likelihood of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2025
Tension with China over Taiwan and the Philippines continues in 2025
Macroeconomic impacts
Conclusion
- Introduction
- Update on the war in Gaza, Hezbollah, and the ceasefire negotiations
- Iran and Israel exchange strikes once again
- North Korea sends troops to Russia
- Tensions between China and Taiwan
- Macroeconomic impacts
- Conclusion
Update on the War in Gaza
Israeli Ground Offensive in Lebanon
Iran Launches Ballistic Missile Attack Against Israel
Potential Options for Israeli Response
- Introduction
- Update on the war in Gaza, Hezbollah, and the ceasefire negotiations
- Iran sends ballistic missiles to Russia
- U.S. considers lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of weapons in Russia
- China and the Philippines hold talks to reduce tensions around Sabina Shoal
- Macroeconomic impacts
- Conclusion
- Update on the war in Gaza and the ceasefire negotiations
- Potential for Iranian/Hezbollah retaliatory attacks against Israel
- Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into Russia
- Maduro claims victory in Venezuela
- Macroeconomic impacts
- Update on the war in Gaza
- Risk of escalation between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah
- Russia enhances partnerships to support its war in Ukraine
- Key developments from the NATO Summit
- Macroeconomic implications
- Israeli operations continue in Rafah
- Iran holds elections June 28th
- Ukraine strikes targets in Russia with U.S. weapons
- U.S. and China defense chiefs meet for talks in Singapore
- Russia conducts naval and air exercises in Caribbean
- Macroeconomic impacts
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Israel commences operations in Rafah
- Russian forces advance on Kharkiv
- Xi meets with Putin this week in China
- U.S. reduces number of troops in Sahel region
- Macroeconomic impacts
- Conclusion
- Update on the war as the Israeli offensive into Rafah nears
- Israel’s strategy and next steps in the war against Hamas
- Risk of escalation with Iran and its proxy forces in the region
- U.S. support of Israel and construction of the aid pier
- China, Taiwan, India, Russia, and Ukraine
- Macroeconomic implications
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- War Between Israel and Hamas Continues
- Iran-Backed Houthi Forces Increase Attacks in Red Sea
- Russia | Ukraine Update
- China Increases Tension with the Philippines and Taiwan
- Crisis in Haiti
- Macroeconomic Implications
- Conclusion
Table of contents:
- Introduction
- War Between Israel and Hamas Continues
- Risk of Regional Conflict with Iran Grows
- Russia | Ukraine Update
- China Puts Pressure on Taiwan Following the Election
- Venezuela and Guyana
- Macroeconomic Implications
- Conclusion
Table of Contents
Introduction
Election in Taiwan Increases Tension with China
Threat from Iran Grows
War Between Israel and Hamas Continues
Russia | Ukraine Stalemate Throughout Much of This Year
Turkey, Venezuela, Ecuador, Africa
Macroeconomic Implications
Q&A and Conclusion
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Israel resumes its operations following the end of the ceasefire
- Houthi rebels increase attacks in Red Sea
- U.S. strikes against Iranian-backed proxy forces in Syria and Iraq
- Update on China, Russia, and the war in Ukraine
- Macroeconomic impacts
- Conclusion
This is a recording from a webinar held on November 2nd, 2023 featuring Lieutenant General David Deptula, Major General Mastin Robeson , our Head of Macro strategy Peter Tchir, and it is moderated by Rachel Washburn Vice President of Geopolitical Strategy at Academy Securities
- Introduction
- Update on the war as the Israeli ground offensive intensifies
- Israel's strategy and next steps in the war against Hamas
- Risk of escalation with Iran and its proxy forces in the region
- U S support of Israel and recent strikes against Iranian proxy forces in Syria
- Macroeconomic implications of the war
- Conclusion
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Overview of the situation
- Other parties that could get involved (Hezbollah, Iran)
- U.S. role in supporting Israel
- Impact to the strategic landscape in the Middle East
- Macroeconomic implications
- Conclusion
- History of AI, key terms, and where we are today
- How AI will transform industries and the workforce
- Economic implications of AI
- Impact to geopolitical relationships
- Military use of AI (and considerations)
- Future applications of AI
- What led up to the crisis in Russia
- Wagner chief Prigozhin’s march on Moscow and why it stopped
- How this crisis will have an impact on President Putin
- Future of the Wagner Group
- Macroeconomic implications
- What this means for the war in Ukraine
- Relationship between Russia and China
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Evolution of the U.S. strategic competition with China
- China’s engagement with allies of the U.S.
- The risk of a military confrontation over Taiwan
- Areas of potential cooperation between the U.S. and China
- Conclusion
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Update on Russia and Ukraine
- China, Taiwan, Japan, North Korea, and U.S. Influence in the Region
- India
- Iran
- Turkey/Greece
- Central and South America
- Cyber
- Macroeconomic Implications
- Conclusion
• Introduction
• Crypto Industry Overview
• FTX Situation Update
• Macro-Implications in the Crypto Space
• Mainstream Adoption of Crypto/Blockchain
• ESG Applications of Crypto
• Geopolitical Aspects of Crypto
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 – 2:00
- Seven Months into Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: 2:01 - 13:10
- The Path Forward for Ukraine: U.S. and NATO Support: 13:11 – 29:15
- Economic Implications for Europe and the West: 29:16 – 39:00
- The Path Forward for Russia: China and the Nuclear Threat: 39:01 – 42:15
- Transition to Sustainable Energy: 42:16 – 46:45
- Iranian Nuclear Program: 46:46 – 48:55
- Q&A: 48:56 – 57:11
- Conclusion: 57:12 - End
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 - 1:27
- Risk of Russian Nuclear/WMD Use in Ukraine: 1:28 - 6:21
- Proliferation and Modernization of Nuclear Weapons: 6:22 - 14:13
- Market Assessment of Nuclear Risk: 14:14 – 16:29
- Nuclear Threat from North Korea: 16:30 – 21:30
- Iran’s Nuclear Program: 21:31 – 27:40
- Future of Nuclear Power & ESG: 27:41 – 43:00
- Conclusion: 43:01 - End
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 – 1:20
- Cyber concerns related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 1:21 – 7:50
- Cyber use in conjunction with sanctions: 7:51 – 10:42
- Can a cyber-attack trigger a NATO Article 5 response?: 10:43 – 13:15
- Critical infrastructure that could be at risk: 13:16 – 15:25
- Russia’s and Ukraine’s cyber capabilities: 15:26 – 19:20
- Q&A: 19:21 – 24:31
- Conclusion: 24:32 – End
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 – 1:23
- State of Geopolitical Risk in 2022: 1:24 – 6:23
- Macro Perspective: End of an Era: 6:24 – 8:08
- India and Central/South America: 8:09 – 13:45
- Supply Chains, Cyber, and ESG: 13:46 – 22:39
- Space and Nuclear Weapons: 22:40 – 30:12
- Other Areas of Concern: 30:13 – 38:28
- Conclusion: 38:29 – End
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 – 1:53
- Status of the Iranian Nuclear Negotiations: 1:54 – 11:32
- Israel’s Nuclear Weapons and Capabilities: 11:33 – 20:50
- International Coalition to Confront Iran: 20:51 – 25:39
- Nuclear Power Industry: 25:40 – 33:20
- Chinese/Russian Hypersonic Technology and Space: 33:21 – 45:52
- Q&A and Conclusion: 45:53 – End
The second episode in our ESG series focuses on Social Responsibility and Diversity & Inclusion. Our contributors to this conversation include:
- Rachel Washburn - Head of Geopolitical Intelligence
- Peter Tchir - Head of Macro Strategy
- Janie Mines - SVP of Inclusion & Innovation
- Mike Rodriguez - Head of ESG
Table of Contents
- 0:00 - 1:43- Introductions
- 1:44 - 3:33 - Importance of Diversity
- 3:34 - 10:31 - Market Implications of Social Responsibility
- 10:32 - 17:59 - ESG Investing & Supply Chains
- 18:00 - 28:59 - Social Responsibility Metrics
- 29:00 - 32:54 - Key Takeaways & Final Thoughts
Table of Contents
- Introduction: 00:00 - 01:04
- Why this matters to us: 1:05 - 02:59
- The departure of the United States and the lead up to the collapse: 3:00 - 7:45
- The strategic purpose of our presence - where we started, why we stayed and what risks to watch for next: 7:46 - 11:09
- What does stability for Afghanistan look like today: 11:10 - 12:59
- China and Other Superpowers in the region, the global economy moving forward and how we recover: 13:00 - 19:53
- How this is different other nations’ post war recoveries, and future supply chain concerns: 19:54 - 25:40
Q&A:
- Threats left in the region and what does a Taliban Government like going forward: 25:41 - 28:01
- How will this effect government spending and what does this mean for consumers, and closing thoughts: 28:02 - end
ESG Best Practices – Environmental Sustainability
Table of Contents:
- Introduction: 00:00 – 01:25
- Views of a Vulnerable Planet from Space: 1:25 – 4:30
- Global Cooperation and Competition in ESG Issues: 4:31– 7:44
- ESG Best Practices: 7:45 – 15:31
- Space and Tech’s role in Addressing Climate Change: 15:32 – 20:36
- Crypto Currency from a Green Perspective: 20:37 – 23:15
- Resources for Clients: 23:16 - end
Key Points:
- Viewing the earth from space allows for the observation of the profound man-made changes to this planet
- RSG initiatives require cooperation and verification
- When evaluation ESG metrics organizations should focus on what is critical to them, what they can control, then build for impact
- ESG will be inflationary
- Companies should get ahead of the curve on the ESG evaluations of supply chains
- Forestry will be a significant part of achieving net-zero emission goals
- China is committed to space-based power generation
- Crypto currencies have the potential to generate green technology but are currently consuming an incredible amount of energy
- European space agency and jet propulsion laboratory are two great resources for data helpful to sustainability considerations
Wendy B. Lawrence is an Academy Securities’ Board Member. Ms. Lawrence is a former NASA astronaut who has logged over 1225 hours in space as a mission specialist and was a veteran of four space flights. A retired United States Navy Captain, Ms. Lawrence was a helicopter pilot with more than 1,500 hours of flight time in six different types of helicopters and made more than 800 shipboard landings. She is the first female graduate of the United States Naval Academy to fly into space after being selected by NASA in March 1992. While an astronaut, she visited the Russian Space Station Mir and was a mission specialist on STS-114, the first Space Shuttle flight after the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster. Ms. Lawrence received a Bachelor of Science degree in ocean engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1981. She also received a Master of Science degree in ocean engineering from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in 1988. She was awarded the Defense Superior Service Medal, the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, and the NASA Space Flight Medal.
Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.
Mike Rodriguez is Head of ESG at Academy Securities. Mike is a former infantry Marine who was wounded in the Battle of Fallujah and awarded the Purple Heart. Following his military service and recovery, he did his graduate work at Dartmouth where he focused on issues of sustainability as it pertains to National Security and earned a Master’s Degree in Globalization Studies. His specialization at Academy Securities is in ESG and green issuance and investing, where he focuses on the metrics by which green and sustainably themed/marketed securities are evaluated.
Table of Contents
- Introduction 00:00 - 2:35
- Creation of US Space Force 2:36 - 13:30
- International Players and cooperation in space 13:31 - 15:51
- Private sector and commercialization of space 15:52 - 27:13
- ESG element in space 27:14 - 29:20
- National security and technology concerns 29:21 - 32:50
- Geopolitical considerations and opportunities 32:51 - End
Major General James "Spider" Marks, Major General Mastin Robeson, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn discuss the recent increase of Russian Troops on the Border with Ukraine.
Table of Contents
- Introduction (0:00-2:43)
- Situation Overview (2:44-8:03)
- U.S. Options (8:04-11:12)
- Russia | China Relationship (11:13-15:02)
- Sanctions & Crypto Currencies (15:03-20:39)
- Russia's Objectives (20:40-24:20)
- Escalations & Indications to watch for (24:21-End)
Threat of Domestic Terrorism
Table of Contents:
• Introduction: 00:00 – 00:54
• External vs. internal threats: 00:55 – 19:54
• Counterterrorism in an era of strategic competition: 19:55 – 25:22
• Vulnerabilities: 25:23 - end
Listen on iTunes Listen on Google Play
Listen on Academy’s Website
Key Points:
· Domestic threats pose a distinct risk which requires a different set of protections.
· Cyber and domestic threats are much more complicated and require a lot of local support.
· Social media not only allows for anonymous expression, but also a communication system, enabling both potential radicalization and mobilization.
· The impact of social media and smart devices requires a new review of how to manage potential monitoring strategies and civil liberties.
· Rail and road networks are part of the threat surface for domestic attacks.
· What is defined as a U.S. person extends to the cyber domain.
· The political intent of an act is important when determining terror threats.
· Work from home expands the threat surface for cyber hackers.
· Integrated operations between agencies may be needed to effectively address domestic threats.
· Counterterrorism abroad remains a focus even in an era of strategic competition.
· Electrical grid and financial markets remain vulnerable
This podcast is a recording from a webinar entitled "Geostrategic Surprises of 2021". This event was held on January 19th, 2021.
Talking Points
- China and the future of Taiwan
- North Korea's options
- U.S. - India relationship
- Iran back on the offensive
- Turkey & NATO
- Cyber threats
Academy Securities Geopolitical Podcast
Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape
Transition and the First 100 Days
Table of Contents:
- Introduction: 00:00 – 00:52
- Transition and Adversary Risk: 00:53 – 11:00
- Elements of Power and Multilateral Relationships: 11:01 – 24:23
- Technology, Manufacturing, and Competition with China: 24:24 – 33:51
- First 100 Days: 33:52 – End
Listen on iTunes
Listen on Google Play
Listen on Academy’s Website
Key Points:
-
Transition team - those expected to be nominated for national security positions are already engaged and working hand in hand with the agencies and departments that will be under their management
-
China will remain a top focus for the incoming administration
-
Russia will likely take some advantage of the transitionary period, but other competitors who seek better relations with the Biden administration are unlikely to cause trouble
-
The Biden administration will focus on filling all the lower appointed positions that remained empty during the Trump administration
-
Yellen’s nomination is designed to achieve bipartisan support
- China – while still expected to be treated as a strategic competitor, many of the economic advisors to the Biden administration do not have a history of being pro-tariff
- A Biden administration will put pressure on China by leaning on our partners
- China works in its best interest, and we are seeing it leverage not only its economic power, but now its information and military might
-
There will be elements of compromise in our competition with China
-
A threat to Taiwan may end the era of “strategic ambiguity” between the U.S. and China
-
The tech industry is particularly vulnerable to China’s ambitions
-
Vaccine distribution will impact our relationship with China
-
The Belt and Road initiative will play a role in China’s pandemic response
Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.
Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on
fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.
The following information has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a solicitation, an offer to sell, or an offer to buy any security. Academy Securities Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited.
Academy Securities is a preeminent disabled veteran owned investment bank with strength in public finance, fixed income and equity trading and underwriting. Leadership and staff have had intensive military training prior to entering and gaining in-depth financial services experience in global capital markets. We are mission driven with a high ethical code, a solid sense of accountability and strive for excellence in the pursuit of our clients' success. Intellectual assets, strong visionary leaders and a proud team commitment bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. Academy is our nation's first and only post-9/11 disabled veteran owned investment bank and is certified as DVBE, SDVOSB and MBE. The firm has a strong top and middle tier client base served by a national platform with offices in New York, Chicago, San Diego, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Chapel Hill.
Please visit our website at www.academysecurities.com.
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Academy Securities hosted a Zoom webinar on November 5th, 2020. At the time of this webinar the results of the presidential election between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Peter Tchir discuss the impact of this on the markets and global risk landscape.
Key Points:
- Data protection, network security, and Cyber Security Awareness Month
- Progress made by U.S. corporations/municipalities to better prepare and defend themselves against cyber-attacks
- Election security and disinformation campaigns designed to undermine the confidence in our electoral system
- By volume, China conducts the most disinformation attacks
- Nation states including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea and the great power competition
- Rising China: cyber, AI/machine learning, quantum computing, and threats to critical infrastructure
- Global risks to data and implementation of 5G
- Recidivist Russia: cyber capabilities and their desire to be viewed as a global superpower Russia has the most sophisticated cyber capabilities
- Revolutionary Iran: U.S. financial sector viewed as the center of power and likelihood of a more destructive cyber-attack
- U.S. policy towards cyber-attacks against our interests
- Cyber criminals and digital currencies
- Risk to global supply chains
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Vincent R. Stewart is an Academy Securities’ Advisory Board Member.
Lieutenant General Stewart served in the United States Marine Corps for over 35 years. He most recently served as Deputy Commander, U.S. Cyber Command. Prior to this assignment, Lieutenant General Stewart served as the 20th Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. A native of Chicago, Illinois, by way of Kingston, Jamaica, Lieutenant General Stewart graduated from Western Illinois University, earning his commission in 1981. He has served as an armor officer and subsequently as a signal’s intelligence and intelligence officer, commanding at every level. Lieutenant General Stewart earned master’s degrees in National Security and Strategic Studies from the Naval War College, Newport, R.I. and in National Resource Strategy from the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University, Washington, D.C.
Lieutenant General Stewart’s military decorations include: the Defense Superior Service Medal; the Legion of Merit with one gold star; the Bronze Star; the Meritorious Service Medal with one gold star; the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, with two gold stars; the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal; the Combat Action Ribbon; the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal; and various unit awards.
Peter Tchir is head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance.
We hosted a Zoom video Roundtable discussing treating China as a strategic competitor. Participants in this event included Lieutenant General Bob Walsh, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Rachel Washburn.
Rising Tensions in the South China Sea
Table of Contents:
- Introduction: 0:00 - 1:17
- What is happening in the South China Sea: 1:18 - 9:45
- How the tensions may impact trade: 9:45 - 17:07
- Impact of Hong Kong’s new national security law: 17:08 - 22:41
- Risk of miscalculation or accident: 22:42 - 26:40
- Race for new technology: 26:41 - End
Key Points:
- The U.S. recently announced that it rejects China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea (SCS)
- The “great power competition” we are seeing in the SCS is potentially moving the U.S. towards a Cold War with China, but neither country wants a conflict
- China’s claim to the SCS is based on the fact that it is not a signatory to the WWII Peace Treaty
- The U.S., along with its network of allies and partners in the region, must act as a counterweight to China
- China is using an Anti-Access Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy in the SCS and has militarized several islands with aircraft, missiles, and jamming technology
- There remains a risk of miscalculation with two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups operating in the SCS
- Undersea cables, critical for the use of the internet and messaging, may be at risk given China’s expansion in the region
- While tensions will continue to rise, China will remain a key global trading partner
- However, countries will be more careful regarding tech (5G) and supply chain (PPE)
- The developments in Hong Kong may not be crucial to the global economy, but it may be a precursor to a change in Chinese strategy regarding Taiwan
- It is becoming harder to separate the economic and diplomatic issues after the U.S. ended the preferential treatment Hong Kong once received and China is now cracking down on U.S. companies doing business with Taiwan
- The international community is starting to recognize the technological competition with China
Major General Clarence K.K. Chinn is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Major General Chinn brings decades of experience to Academy’s Advisory Board, having served in the U.S. Army for over 36 years. He most recently served as Commander, U.S. Army South, where he was responsible for the conduct and support of multinational operations and security operations in the U.S. Southern Command area of responsibility (31 countries and 15 areas of special sovereignty in Central/South America and the Caribbean) in order to counter transregional transnational threat networks and strengthen regional security in defense of the homeland. Prior to this assignment, Major General Chinn served as the Deputy Commander for United States Army Special Operations Command, as the Senior Commander at Fort Bragg, a $32 billion dollar industry for North Carolina annually, and Commanding General at Fort Polk, LA. Major General Chinn is a 1981 graduate of the United States Military Academy and holds a master’s degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Army War College. He has served as an Infantry officer, commanding at every level, with extensive time serving with Airborne / Ranger units. Currently residing in Aiea, Hawaii, Major General Chinn has been assisting United States Army Pacific with their Regional Leader Development Program – Pacific.
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.
Peter Tchir is Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities. He has 25 years in the industry focusing on fixed income. He has traded and structured products ranging from complex transactions, junk bonds, liquid CDS indices, and ETFs. This background helps bring a unique frame of reference to his market strategies and analysis. It helps him focus on what is relevant for the here and now for investors and issuers. He has worked closely with a wide range of investors and portfolio managers since he established TF Market Advisors as an independent firm in 2010. He is regularly quoted in the media for his views on the macro outlook and fixed income strategies. His expertise provides insight into risk, identifying opportunities on a global macro basis, with an emphasis on fixed income. As the Head of Macro Strategy, Peter communicates these opportunities and approaches effectively to customers. Peter received a B.S. in mathematics and computer sciences from the University of Waterloo and an MBA with distinction from Vanderbilt University, where he also won the Matt Wiggington Leadership Award for outstanding performance in finance
The Geopolitical Impact of Low Oil Prices
Table of Contents:
- 0:00 - 2:20: Introduction
- 2:21 - 7:56: Dealing with China in a COVID Environment
- 7:57 - 20:00: Impact on the Middle East and North Africa
- 20:01 - 25:06: European Union and Russia
- 25:07 - 28:25: Venezuela
- 28:26 - End: Final Thoughts and Hong Kong Update
Key Points:
- With oil prices likely to remain low for an extended period of time, our Geopolitical Intelligence Group weighs in on the global implications.
- We view the effects through the lens of U.S. national security policy and how China (in the COVID environment) will react domestically and internationally.
- The consensus view is that the U.S. will not pull back on its commitment to its allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, but the relationships will evolve.
- However, the consequences of low oil prices for other nations could be significant and we go around the world to discuss the potential ramifications.
- In the Middle East, low oil prices will have an impact on nations using oil revenue to help subsidize their local economies.
- Saudi Arabia, with a very low break even point for production, can sustain lower prices, but its Vision 2030 plan could be at risk.
- Iran and Iraq will have significant economic issues to contend with as the impact of COVID is taking its toll, particularity on Iran.
- In North Africa, lower oil prices will impact nations that are budgeting for much higher prices and will have ripple effects. We do not see Turkey backing away from its support of the GNA in Libya.
- In Russia, we believe that low oil prices, the impact of COVID, and struggling overseas campaigns in Libya, Syria, and Venezuela will not deter Putin or erode his grip on power.
- In Venezuela, while the U.S. does not intend to interdict Iranian shipping carrying fuel to the country, the stakes are high as the goal is an eventual transfer of power.
Major General (Ret.) James A. "Spider" Marks is Head of Geopolitical Strategy and Academy Securities' Senior Advisory Board Member. General Marks is the Founder and President of The Marks Collaborative, an advisory for corporate leader development, education and training and has led entrepreneurial efforts in global primary research and national security. He served over 30 years in the Army holding every command position from infantry platoon leader to commanding general and was the senior intelligence officer in the LA Riots, the Balkans, Korea, and Operation Iraqi Freedom. He culminated his career as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School at Fort Huachuca, Arizona. He has been awarded the Distinguished Service Medal, the Defense Superior Service Medal, Legion of Merit with Oak Leaf cluster, Bronze Star, and multiple combat, expeditionary and service ribbons. General Marks is a Master parachutist, authorized to wear Korean and Canadian Airborne wings, Air Assault qualified, and Honor Graduate of the U.S. Army Ranger School. General Marks is a national security contributor to CNN and member of the Military Intelligence Hall of Fame.
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.
Major General (Ret.) Mastin M. Robeson is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. A native of the Carolinas, Mastin Robeson was commissioned in 1975 and served over 34 years on active duty in the United States Marine Corps, during which time he served in more than 60 countries. He retired from the Marine Corps in February 2010. Major General Robeson served in combat zones in Liberia, Desert Storm, Somalia, Bosnia, Horn of Africa, Southern Philippines, Iraq and Afghanistan. He commanded at every operational level in the Marine Corps, including its Anti-Terrorism unit, an infantry battalion, an infantry regiment, a combined joint task force in combat, two Marine Expeditionary Brigades, two Marine Divisions, and the Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command. He served as Military Assistant to Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen and as General Dave Petraeus’ Director of Strategy, Plans, and Assessments in Iraq, where he was responsible for writing and assessing the 2007 Crocker/Petraeus surge campaign plan.
The following information has been provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a solicitation, an offer to sell, or an offer to buy any security. Academy Securities Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited.
Academy Securities is a preeminent disabled veteran owned investment bank with strength in public finance, fixed income and equity trading and underwriting. Leadership and staff have had intensive military training prior to entering and gaining in-depth financial services experience in global capital markets. We are mission driven with a high ethical code, a solid sense of accountability and strive for excellence in the pursuit of our clients' success. Intellectual assets, strong visionary leaders and a proud team commitment bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients. Academy is our nation's first and only post-9/11 disabled veteran owned investment bank and is certified as DVBE, SDVOSB and MBE. The firm has a strong top and middle tier client base served by a national platform with offices in New York, Chicago, Boston, San Diego, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Sacramento and Chapel Hill.
Please visit our website at www.academysecurities.com.
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The opinions are those of independent third-party research providers. Information contained herein is based on information provided by a third-party research provider and is not guaranteed by U.S., nor should the information be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein or provide investment advice. Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Academy Securities Inc, its employees, officers, or directors. Academy Securities, Inc. directors, officers and employees and their family members from time to time may own securities of the publicly traded companies discussed in any referenced independent Third-Party Research report. Academy Securities, Inc. may have a marketing partnership with several Third-Party Research providers to market their research services to institutional clients. Academy Securities, Inc. is an agency-only broker. The firm does not produce proprietary research, nor does it engage in any proprietary trading. The user is responsible for verifying the accuracy of the data received. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any ownership of the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not or has not had any investment banking relationships with the subject company in the past 12 months nor expects to in the next 3 months. Academy Securities, Inc. does not have any market making activities in the subject company's securities. Academy Securities, Inc. does not maintain an analytical relationship and is not a member of any distributing organization. Academy Securities, Inc. makes no claim as to its accuracy or completeness. Academy Securities, Inc. is not responsible for the content or comments of these independent third-party research providers. Academy Securities, Inc. accepts no liability for any errors or omissions arising as a result of transmission. Use of this communication by other than the intended recipients is prohibited.
Key Points:
Peter Tchir Discusses the Need for Federal Assistance to Mitigate the Economic Impact of the Crisis
- We have now declared war on the coronavirus pandemic here in the United States.
- The goal is to slow the spread so our healthcare system can catch up (i.e. not be overwhelmed).
- The recommendation to stay home/limit activity will have an immediate impact on the economy.
- The Federal government needs to be more aggressive and take action to protect its citizens and make them financially “whole”.
- Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, this is a “bottoms up” problem and the effect will “trickle up”.
General Spider Marks Comments on the National Mobilization
- National mobilization – much like in WWII and during national disasters like hurricanes.
- Invoking the Stafford Act – will grant the president additional powers.
- National Guard will continue to be engaged to help communities get through the crisis.
- Country cannot move into complete isolation; we will need to work together.
- Nation has made sacrifices before, and will make them again and overcome this.
Key Points:
- Iran has been severely weakened by sanctions and the death of Soleimani further destabilizes Iran
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The death of Soleimani is part of a three-part strategy:
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Constrain Iran’s malign activity
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Roll back Iran’s influence in the region - especially in Iraq
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Deter further Iranian aggression
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Iran hopes that the death of Soleimani would galvanize its population
- Iran’s strategic information capabilities are significant
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The IRGC are more ideologically entrenched than the conventional Iranian military forces
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Iran is unlikely to want to confront the U.S. again in a direct fashion
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Future attacks will allow Iran deniability
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Attacks are likely to occur against U.S. allies in the region
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Expect a back channel movement to establish a diplomatic resolution – ease sanctions
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A significant portion of the Iraqi population wants Iranian influence out of Iraq
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Kim Jung Un is watching this closely
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China remains a critical aspect to resolution with North Korea
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China could provide military and nuclear top cover for North Korea
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For the first time, Iran, China, and Russia held joint naval exercises
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Remains to be seen if this partnership will embolden Iran
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Remains to be seen if Russia and China will stand behind the actions of Iran
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If Iran attempted to close the Strait of Hormuz, China would be greatly impacted
Rachel Washburn and Lieutenant General Robert Walsh discuss the partnership between the United States and Turkey. Recent escalations between Turkey and the Kurds in northern Syria has many Americans questioning the motives and thoughts behind the US reaction to the conflict.
Table of Contents: U.S.-Turkey partnership history: 00:00 – 5:19 Turkey’s cultural shift and relationships: 5:20 – 22:39 Next steps: 22:40 – End
Lieutenant General (Ret.) Robert S. Walsh is an Academy Securities' Advisory Board Member. Lieutenant General Walsh served in the Marine Corps for over 35 years, completing his career as the Commanding General of the Marine Corps Combat Development Command and the Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration. In his last assignment, he was responsible for strategic planning and executing the reorganization of the Marine Corps to meet the new National Defense Strategy roles and missions. His responsibilities included integrating multiple warfighting functions and domains across all military services and the Department of Defense.
Previously, he served as the Assistant Deputy Commandant for Aviation, the Assistant Deputy Commandant for Combat Development & Integration, and the Director of Expeditionary Warfare, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations. In these assignments he was responsible for managing numerous vital warfare systems. Lieutenant General Walsh’s operational and joint assignments included serving as the Commanding General, 2d Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward) Iraq and the Director of Operations, United States Northern Command. Lieutenant General Walsh has served as the Co-Chairman of both the Navy-Marine Corps and Army-Marine Corps Boards along with being Co-Chairman of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) – Marine Corps Investment Board and the Office of Naval Research – Marine Corps Investment Board. A native of Chicago, Illinois, Lieutenant General Walsh is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and holds a Master of Science in National Security Studies from the National War College. He served as an F/A-18 pilot at all levels to include commanding Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 115, Marine Aircraft Group 31, and 2d Marine Aircraft Wing (Forward) during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM. He was an instructor at the Navy Fighter Weapons School, also known as TOPGUN. He has received several writing awards. Additionally, Lieutenant General Walsh has testified before Congress on subjects such as modernization, acquisition, readiness and training of the Navy and Marine Corps.
Academy Securities Geopolitical SITREP
Geopolitical Flashpoints: The Macroeconomic Impact of the Geostrategic Landscape
Table of Contents:
Hong Kong Protest Background: 00:00 - 4:33
Mainland China’s Response: 4:34 - 11:28
The View from Taiwan: 11:29 - 15:43
North Korea and China: 15:44 - 19:09
Listen on iTunes Here
Listen on Google Play
Key Points:
- For the last several years, the market has failed to fully recognize that Hong Kong is a part of China - it isn’t completely independent.
- If the U.S. were to respond to the crisis, it would be with more difficult terms around trade.
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Much of the anti-government sentiment and protests began in April in response to an extradition bill.
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China and Hong Kong are part of “one country two systems”:
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The Hong Kong system and “basic law” protects civil freedoms of Hong Kong citizens.
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The protesters wish to highlight the deterioration of these freedoms and protections.
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The protests are not hierarchical or organized.
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The protesters and their recent actions risk alienating the population to their cause.
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China’s growing global influence could impact its response.
- China’s deft social media and AI capabilities are important considerations when evaluating these protests.
- Two U.S. Navy port visits have been canceled amid protests and accusations of U.S. involvement.
- The Chinese People’s Armed Police - not Army - has massed on the Hong Kong boarder.
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China is walking a fine line trying to diminish the impact of the protests while using limited force.
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An escalation by mainland China would result in more disruptions to trade negotiations with the U.S.
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Taiwan is watching what happens in Hong Kong very closely:
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The events in Hong Kong could lead to more anti-Chinese/anti-communist sentiment in Taiwan.
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The U.S. has approved new military sales to Taiwan and China has responded by increasing military operations around Taiwan.
- North Korea remains economically dependent on China and China remains a consideration as we evaluate the ongoing negotiations with North Korea and its behavior.
As events continue to develop in the Straights of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, tensions rise between Iran, the US, and other super powers active in these very valuable and necessary shipping lanes. This week the UK Royal Navy had to place ships between a UK flagged merchant ship from BP and Iranian IRGC vessels.
We immediately got on the phone to discuss this further with our Geopolitical & macro Strategy team members. We had Lieutenant General Frank Kearney and Lieutenant General David Deptula were featured in this conversation.
I've also included sections from previous podcasts on the topic of Iran. Those conversations feature Major General James "Spider" Marks and Brigadier General Tony Tata.
There are also several written pieces we've published regarding this global concern. They can be viewed by clicking here.
Academy Securities discusses the recent meeting between President Trump's & Kim Jong Un's meeting and walk through the demilitarized zone. We also talk about the results (or lack there of) after the G20 summit in Japan. The second half of the conversation focuses on the effect sanctions are having on Iran and recent election results in Turkey.
We continue the conversation regarding the Trade War with China. We cover Academy's previous coverage of this subject as well as long term forecasting. Academy Securities has stayed ahead of some of the recent geopolitical, macro, and credit market trends that are driving price action lately. For example, here are some instances where Peter has been on the leading edge of market dynamics, and has been called on frequently by the financial press, including Bloomberg TV, to share his developing thoughts:
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In late March we started focusing more on China as a “strategic competitor” tying our geopolitical perspectives with Peter’s thought process. Peter wasn’t yet bearish but that set the stage. See here for his thoughts then: China Trade War
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By mid-April he was more concerned and became more bullish. You all may have seen some of those notes.
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Turned full-scale bearish on May 12th, with this piece:Crossing the Rubicon with China
Brigadier General Tata, Peter Tchir, Rachel Washburn, and Chance Mims all discuss the Trump Administration's decision to deny waivers to countries that want to buy Iranian Oil against standing sanctions. What threats are associated with this decision?
We discuss Geopolitical & Macro Strategy concerns with brigadier General Tony Tata, Major General James Spider Marks, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn.
Topics
- China & Trade
- Taiwan, US, and China Relations
- India's Position Among Other Leading Nations
- Elections in Indonesia
- Russian Interference in Ukraine's Elections
- Volatility in Turkey
- Unrest in Venezuela
United States President Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim meet in February 2019 to discuss nuclear capabilities of North Korea and economic sanctions that have been in place for years. Major General James "Spider" Marks, Lieutenant General Bob Walsh, and Rachel Washburn of Academy Securities discuss the outcome of this recent summit.
Today our conversation focuses on India & Pakistan. On February 14th a terrorist attack killed 40 Indian soldiers in Indian controlled Kashmir. India claimed this week that it launched airstrikes into Pakistani territory against the terrorist groups responsible for the February 14th attack.
This Wednesday a confrontation occurred between Pakistani and Indian fighter jets which resulted in Indian aircraft being shot down and a plot captured by Pakistani forces. As this was recorded Pakistani and Indian governments had begun negotiations for the return of the Indian Pilot.
Rachel Washburn and Major General James Spider Marks discuss this situation involving 2 nuclear-armed nations.
As the political crisis continues to take place in Venezuela the international community chooses to back Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó. We discuss with our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy experts what may happen next and how markets may be impacted.
For our final episode of 2018 we review the major geopolitical events and developments of this year and discuss whats on the horizon for 2019. Main topics include:
- China & Trade War
- Russia global influence
- Ukraine
- Turkey & Nato
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
- Cyber Threat
- U.S. role in Afghanistan
Over the weekend tensions escalated between Russia and the Ukraine as 3 Ukrainian naval vessels and crew were captured by Russian forces. Our panel of Geopolitical an Macro Strategy experts provide commentary on possible outcomes, market impact, and probable US actions.
As the U.S. develops sanctions and waivers in regard to Iran and its nuclear pursuits, what does this mean for the markets and geopolitical environment. We have Rachel Washburn moderating a conversation between Lieutenant General Frank Kearny, Major General James "Spider" Marks, and Peter Tchir surrounding this topic. We also discuss midterm elections and how they may impact the global risk landscape.
With the recent killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, what are the impacts this may have on U.S.- KSA relations as well as trade in the region. How might the markets react to this event? What may happen to the chances for the crown prince os Saudi Arabia Mohammad bin Salman's future leadership opportunities? Major General James Spider Marks, Lieutenant General David Deptula, Peter Tchir, and Rachel Washburn from Academy Securities have a conversation covering all of these topics.
Ten Main Points for Chinese Military Modernization
0:43 - Meeting between North & South Korea 2:00 - China's role in the North Korea 3:28 - 10 Main Points in Chinese Military Modernization
- 5:15 - Expeditionary Doctrine
- 6:15 - Degrade U.S. Technological Advantage
- 6:55 - Naval Advancement Profile - First Engagement Capability
- 7:55 - Increase Control over the Horizon
- 8:42 - Use of Information of Gain Advantage
- 9:22 - Intelligence Collection
- 10:05 - Space & Counter Space
- 10:38 - Air Component of Nuclear Triad
- 10:56 - Belt and Road Initiative - Access through Economic Influence
- 11:35 - Relationship with Taiwan
12:25 - Economic & Trade War
Academy Securities presents Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir. Spider shares his view on the current situation in Ukraine and how it plays a part in the relationship between Russia & Europe.
Peter also shares his thoghts on SOFR bonds vs LIBOR bonds.
As we look to the remainder of 2018, what geopolitical risks and concerns should we have our eyes on? The Academy Securities team discusses how they see the remainder of 2018 playing out. We discuss the following:
- Chinese Military Expansion and Trade: 0:00-4:30
- North Korea: 4:31-7:31
- Afghanistan: 7:32 - 9:46
- US-Turkey Relatinoship: 9:47-12:11
- Russia Cyber Influence: 12:12 - 15:51
- Venezuela: 15:52 - 19:00
- Military Presence in MENA: 19:01- 22:30
- Market Commentary: 22:31 - 24:07
- Senator John McCain Tribute: 24:08 - 30:36
Also, here is a link to Peter Tchir's piece titled "Don’t Be Afraid of the Big Bad BBB Bonds"
As always you can reach us at info@academysecurities.com.
Academy Securities is our nation's first and only Post-9/11 veteran and disabled veteran owned and operated investment bank with strength in capital markets, public finance, fixed income and equity trading. Academy leverages intensive past Military training, in depth current financial experience, geopolitical knowledge and broad networks. Mission-driven teams bring out the best in each other for the benefit of our clients.
Academy Secutities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast: We discuss the announcement recently made concerning the creation of the US Space Force. Rached Washburn, Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir and Andy Robinson discuss what the mission of the Space Force might be. How will it's formation effect the other branches of the military as well as the Defense and Aerospace industry? Any questions...email info@academysecurities.com
Key Points: * The creation of a Space Force is an inevitability * Discussions will surround practicality, cost, and relevance regarding existing branches of the military * Space is a domain of war – one with many facets * Commerce, navigation, intelligence collection, and communications all depend on the security of space * Creating a space command before a Space Force would be a logical first step - a geographic command * Commanding space is not only about the safety of space but also the mastery of all the functions enabled by advancement in space * The need for a Space Force is not necessarily threat based but capabilities based
Impact on the Aerospace Industry: * The creation of a Space Force will focus on being budget neutral * The long-term financial loser will be the Air Force * Industry with a current footprint in space will benefit - especially for those helping the intelligence community * China, Russia, and France all have a significant presence in space * The US leverages other nations current infrastructure * Space is not the Wild West – it is governed – but it is not surprising to see the US trying to ensure it has total dominance in space
Major General James "Spider Marks and Peter Tchir discuss Turkey and it's impact on the global economy.
Last week Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced significant US investment and strategy for the Indo-Pacific Region. Academy Securities's Head of Geopolitical Strategy Major General James "Spider" Marks and Head of US Rates Sales and Trading Glen Capelo provide their thoughts onn this announcement in this episode. Geopolitical Strategy Associate Rachel Washburn moderates the discussion.
Table of Contents: * Indo-Pacific Campaign: 00:00 - 4:23 * Trade War Update: 4:24 - 10:04 * Allies in the Region: 10:05 – 25:35
Key Points: * Secretary Pompeo’s announcement for the Indo-Pacific economic strategy: * Pompeo has put a spotlight on a long-term effort in the Indo-Pacific Region * The US has never lost sight of the importance of this region, but the perceived negligence exists because the US has spent the last 17 years at war in the Middle East and SW Asia * It is critical for the US to remain engaged in the Indo-Pacific * Any solution with North Korea runs through Beijing: * China, Japan, and Russia are important partners in the Indo-Pacific * Security guarantees help incentivize economic growth * Economic effort, on the part of the Chinese, has been their primary element of power to achieve global influence * They create dependency- the US needs to provide a legitimate alternative * North Korea and Indonesia showcase perfect opportunities for the US to compete with China for influence: * China is not going to back away from their military presence in the South China Sea * Friends in the region need to know that we remain committed to partnerships- a consistent partner and friend * Any engagement with Chinese companies is an engagement with the Chinese intelligence collection apparatus
Market Impact: * The market is digesting this information especially as it pertains to long-term challenges with trade: * China’s economic system can sustain a long-term trade war and President Xi is prepared * This is the beginning of something new: * President Trump’s negotiation style is reflective of this new management * It is a monumental turn that we have gotten North Korea to the table and opened a dialogue * No doubt that the trade war could have collateral damage on our progress with North Korea * Economically, these issues will benefit our relationship with Japan * When dealing with China, you are not only dealing with private companies but also with the state
This episode of the Academy Securities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Podcast covers the differences between the way China and the US asserts influence around the globe. We also discuss how energy independece effects the market regarding the trade war between the US and China.
As Americans discuss the Helsinki Summit, Major General James "Spider" Marks provides his outlook. General Marks spent a majority of his life serving within the intelligence community. In this episode he shares his thoughts on leadership, diplomacy, U.S./Russian relations, NATO, and the intelligence community.
Academy Securities is a service-disabled veteran-owned investment bank with a social mission to hire, train, and mentor military veterans to develop careers in finance. If you're interested in engaging our Geopolitical and Macro Strategy Departments directly, please email info@academysecurities.com.
This week's episode of Academy Securities Geopolitical & Macro Strategy podcast features Major General James "Spider" Marks, Peter Tchir, & Racheal Washburn. This episode covers NATO, Russia, and the ongoing Trade War.
If you'd like to read more of Peter's commentary and other writings, please visit www.academysecurities.com/macro
This week's podcast features Academy Securities Advisory Board member Brigadier General Anthony Tata. We discuss Iran's recent threats of impacting the Strait of Hormuz. We also talk about the beginning of the trade war with China. Finally we touch on cyber warfare and provide a quick update on N. Korea.
Putin/Trump Summit: * Syria * Shared U.S.-Russia objectives in the conflict * Assad will remain in power * The U.S. will attempt to counter violent extremism while not damaging its relationship with Turkey * Military Adventurism * Ukraine won’t join NATO but could establish a Switzerland like posture as to not antagonize Russia * Ukraine should reinforce their vital role in delivering Russian energy to Europe * Tension with Baltic states * Cyber * Russian meddling in democratic institutions will be addressed
Sec. Mattis' visit to China: * Perfectly timed on the heels of the North Korea summit * China’s military is growing and becoming an expeditionary force * Opportunity to cooperate in the South China Sea
Market Update: * Markets remain volatile * Remain cautious on markets but optimistic for future growth * Migration legislation has impacted markets and Europe has made progress addressing this issue
Any questions or to interact with our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy team members please email us at info@academysecurities.com
Academy Securities presents Major General James "Spider" Marks, Rachel Washburn, and Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir. These members of our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Departments offer their unique expertise regarding North Korean Summit as well as upcoming Turkish elections. Host Andrew Robinson also recounts the story from his time in the Marine Corps and shares his Alive Day reflections.
For Peter's Market commentary go to www.academysecurities.com/macro
Would you like to speak with Peter or one of our geopolitical experts? Email us at info@academysecurities.com
Podcast Subject Time Marks
0:00 - 16:32 - North Korea
16:32 - 27:17 Turkey
27:17 - 30:28 Peter Macro Update
30:28 - 37:40 Andy Alive Day and conclusion
- N. Korea Summit
- Russia & G-7
- U.S. vs. violent extremism
Academy Securities presents Lieutenant General David Deptula, Brigadier General Anthony Tata, and Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir. These members of our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Departments offer their unique expertise regarding North Korean Summit, Russia and the G-7, as well as the U.S. fight against violent extremism.
Academy Securities presents Major General James "Spider" Marks, Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir, and Major General Maston Robeson. These members of our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Departments offer their unique expertise regarding Turkey, Iran, Syria, Venezuela & Argentina.
Academy Securities presents Major General James "Spider" Marks, Head of Macro Strategy Peter Tchir, and Major General Maston Robeson. These members of our Geopolitical & Macro Strategy Departments offer their unique expertise regarding North Korea, China, Indonesia, and Cyber Threats.