Fishkind Economic Conversations: Recent Episodes
90.7 WMFE
Join Morning Edition host Nicole Creston and Orlando-based economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind as they discuss how the latest developments in the business world affect Central Florida’s economy.
Florida’s unemployment rate dipped to 3.2% in March, and Central Florida’s labor markets were particularly strong. Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind says it appears that Central Florida’s hospitality industry recovery is finally starting to take root.
Apartment rental rates are skyrocketing across the country, but Florida’s rent increase was higher than any other state’s. It’s up by 30 percent since this time last year, with the biggest jumps found in Orlando, Tampa, and Miami. Economic analyst Hank Fishkind explains why the rents are climbing in Central Florida, and what can be done to slow them down.
A new report from the US Census Bureau shows Florida’s biggest counties - including Orange and Seminole - losing population for the first time since Census tracking began. Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind says COVID-19 had a sizable role in the historic changes...which, he says caught him off guard.
Florida’s overall job market is recovering to pre-pandemic levels…mostly. The new labor report from Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity is a strong one, with one glitch that affects Central Florida in particular. Dr. Hank Fishkind explains the details.
The Federal Reserve has announced it will raise interest rates to try to tamp down inflation. Right now, consumer prices are up by nearly eight percent and gas prices have approached all-time highs. Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind talks about how the change by the Fed will impact Central Florida.
Florida lawmakers have wrapped up this year’s legislative session by approving a record $112.1 billion state budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. That’s more than ten percent higher than the current budget. Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind offers his review of the upcoming state budget, starting with two issues he says he wishes lawmakers would have addressed that are affecting the state: condo safety precautions and property taxes.
Employment rose by 689,000 in February, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, and the labor force participation rate climbed. And revisions to previous months mean employment rates were even higher than first reported. Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind says the news is especially positive for Central Florida, as we see our tourism sector reflected in the makeup of the job growth.
Many uncertainties cloud the future of the war in Ukraine. Economic analyst Hank Fishkind says that from a purely financial perspective, if Russia’s attacks stay inside Ukraine’s borders - including cyberattacks - the effects on Central Florida’s economy will be “modest.”
Property insurance rates have been skyrocketing in Florida for the last five years, with many companies canceling people’s policies, leaving the state, or going out of business. Fishkind talks about why property insurance rates are climbing while availability is shrinking, and what can be done.
The Champlain Towers condominium building collapse in South Florida killed 98 residents last June. Legislative changes for Florida's building safety are pending, but economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind says they are too slow to deal with a problem this immediate, and this big.
Economists expected weak US job growth at best in January as Omicron surged, but a new report shows the economy added a significant 467,000 jobs instead. Tourism numbers are also sky-high, but so’s inflation…and the unemployment rate also ticked up a little.
Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind explains to WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston how all this affects Central Florida, starting with the new jobs report that caught economists off-guard.
As expected, last week the Federal Reserve confirmed its plans to raise interest rates and shrink the money supply as soon as early March.
Financial markets reacted with rising rates, falling stock prices and increased volatility…but the outcome of all this may mean decreased inflation.
WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston asks economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind how soon the rates will rise, and how that will affect Central Florida.
Click the Play Audio button to hear their conversation.
Florida’s job growth seemed to fall off a cliff in December – just under 12,000 jobs were created, compared to 50,000 in November.
WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston asks economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind what’s behind the slowing growth, how worried we should be about it, and what’s coming next.
Click the Play Audio button to hear their conversation.
Economic growth has rebounded strongly, but the recovery remains incomplete.
Across the country, employment is still two percent below pre-pandemic levels.
Florida has done better recouping at the state level, recovering 99% of the jobs lost.
But economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind tells WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston that the recovery is still incomplete here in Florida, as well…especially here in Central Florida because of our tourism-centric economy.
Click the Play Audio button to hear their conversation.
US job growth slowed in December, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent at the same time.
This may sound confusing, but economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind tells WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston there are several reasons that unemployment is still dropping even as job growth slows.
Most importantly, he says, the demand for labor remains very high.
Click the Play Audio button to hear their conversation.
Things are looking up when it comes to the Central Florida economy in 2022, especially if Omicron peaks in January as expected.
90.7’s economic analyst Hank Fishkind spoke with our reporter Danielle Prieur about possible challenges and successes the year may bring, along with some economic advice for listeners.
Read the full interview or listen to it by clicking on the clip at the top of the page.
Hank: You know, looking in the crystal ball, it’s really going to be a great year for our economy here in Central Florida, Danielle.
Danielle: That’s great news. Tell me a little bit about why you’re so optimistic about the economic outlook for Central Florida.
Hank: Sure, well, we come into 2022 with a big mount of economic momentum. Real GDP grew at a 7% pace in the fourth quarter, very strong gains in employment, personal income, housing markets remain strong, but the price gains are slowing, Danielle. And similarly, although inflation is running hot, price increases have already begun slowing. And locally, we enjoyed a near record surge in tourism. And that reflects both pent-up demand for leisure travel and big gains in household income and wealth. And this surge came even in the face of the beginnings of the Omicron wave and travel disruptions.
Danielle: Omicron is a big worry for us, with most scientists projecting a continuing acceleration of cases peaking perhaps by the end of January. How will this impact the outlook?
Hank: Well, Omicron is already having the predictable impacts, depressing dining at restaurants and reducing travel according to Google mobility reports. And that’s for the US and all across Central Florida too. Now hopefully, the current Omicron wave will peak soon and fall just as rapidly, which is the pattern that the other variants have followed. And if so, then the Omicron wave will mostly push economic activity that would have occurred in January, into February and March. And that actually will provide some further support to the spring tourism season. And in addition, if the Omicron wave peaks as expected, Danielle, we’re gonna get a big pop in foreign tourists, especially from Canada and the UK, but it’s gonna be really rough sailing for the cruise ship industry. You know, the CDC recommends avoiding cruising and there’s an increasing toll of infections on those cruises. That’s seriously going to crimp volumes throughout the spring, and business travel, you know, that’s going to be impacted negatively as well by this COVID surge.
Danielle: Yeah. And the Federal Reserve promised to increase interest rates this year, at least three times. How will this affect the outlook?
Hank: Well, the increase is overall going to be modest, you know, they’re supposed to be less than one percentage point in total. And because rates are so low now, this one percentage point increase is gonna only have a small impact. I mean, consider the mortgage rates now are about 3.6%. So increase to four and a half percent. That’s still relatively low by historical standards. But what’s more important is that the Fed is acting to restrain inflation by not raising interest rates so much, but by scaling back and eliminating its purchases of bonds, which shrinks the money supply.
Danielle: So looking ahead to the new year that we’re in what worries you most about 2022?
Hank: You know, Omicron of course and waves of infection in the variants are the most troubling. You know, and I also worry that inflation may not unwind as expected, you know, it’s possible that rising wages this year could trigger further price increases, leading to a dreaded wage and price spiral. And then there’s always the risk of a hurricane. And, you know, our recovery remains incomplete, Danielle.
Danielle: You know, what advice do you have for our listeners for 2022?
Hank: Well, for this year, you know, with the very good prospects for a strong economy. This is really the time to seize opportunities to start new businesses and new careers. Also, asset prices are very high, and they’re unlikely to continue to increase as fast as they have over the last few years. So this is a good time to take some profits and to rebalance your portfolio.
The US population grew by just 0.1 % in 2021. That’s the lowest rate on record according to the Census Bureau’s report released last week. Birth rates have slowed since 2007, and this year COVID-19 became the 3rd leading cause of death.
Seventeen states lost population, while in other states, including Florida, population growth slowed.
Economic analyst Hank Fishkind, president of Fishkind Litigation Services, said the Census Bureau report shows how the pandemic is reshaping demographics.
Florida’s population grew by 211,000 in the 12 months ending July 1st, 2021; well below the yearly average since 1970 of 300,000.
“Even with a slowing population growth, what was really interesting was we had a huge net increase of people moving into Florida, that partially offset the drop in international migration, and the shocking increase in deaths in our state,” said Fishkind.
“And that’s caused our natural increase to go negative by 45,000 last year.”
Fishkind said the pandemic encouraged people to move from high home prices and high tax rates to states with more affordable homes and lower tax rates- like Florida.
He said that trend is likely to continue in 2022.
“We have a rising number of people over age 65; that promotes more migration, especially to the south and west. The pandemic has demonstrated that work from home works, both for employers and employees. And so as a result frees them from needing to locate in higher cost areas. And this is transforming our labor markets.”
Economic news has been on a rollercoaster ride recently.
Inflation, interest rates, unemployment, and President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill all saw major changes this week, and they’ll all affect Central Florida’s finances.
Economic analyst Dr. Hank Fishkind updates WMFE’s Nicole Darden Creston, starting with Sunday’s surprise announcement that Build Back Better has been derailed by a single vote.
Click the Play Audio button to hear their conversation.