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Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food projected total Spanish citrus production of 5,842 million tons for the 2024–25 season that began Sept. 1. That’s 60,500 tons, or 1%, less than preliminary figures for the previous season and 8.6% less than the average of the last five seasons.
A continued drought and excessive heat in key periods of citrus development have contributed to the decline of the Spanish all-citrus projection.
Orange and grapefruit production are expected to increase this season. Decreases are projected for lemons and small citrus fruits.
ORANGES
Orange production for 2024–25 is forecast at 2.975 million tons, 8.8% (242,500 tons) more than last season and 8.2% (266,000 tons) below the five-year average. Oranges represents 51% of Spain’s total citrus volume, and 72% of the oranges are navels.
SMALL CITRUS
Small citrus fruit production is forecast at 1.831 million tons, 3.3% (62,400 tons) lower than last season and 9.6% below the five-year average. Small citrus is expected to account for 31.3% of all citrus production. Satsumas are expected to represent 6.1% of this group. Clementines are forecast at 49.9%, with other mandarins and hybrids at 44%.
LEMONS
Lemon production is expected to decline to 953,661 tons, 20.5% (241,650 tons) less than the prior season and 9.9% lower than the five-year average. The Fino variety is forecast to account for 73.1% of lemons and Verna for 26.3%.
Spain had record lemon production in the 2023–24 season; learn more here.
GRAPEFRUIT
Grapefruit production is forecast at 86,305 tons, 0.6% (2,560 tons) higher than last season and 8.3% above the five-year average.
General Director of Agricultural Productions and Markets Elena Busutil presented the season’s first production estimate during a meeting with representatives of citrus growers.
Spain is the leading producer of citrus fruit in the European Union and sixth in the world.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
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Tango mandarinsThe California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, has issued initial 2024–25 forecasts for California’s navel orange crop and for part of the mandarin crop.
NAVEL ORANGES
The initial 2024-25 California navel orange forecast is 78 million cartons, up 2% from the previous year. The forecast is based on a survey conducted from June 8 to Aug. 25.
This forecast includes production of conventional, organic and specialty navel oranges (including Cara Cara and blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 414, up 24% from the previous year. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.06 inches, down 5% from last year. Bearing acreage is estimated at 110,000, which results in a forecasted yield of 709 cartons per acre.
Cara Cara production is forecast at 9 million cartons. Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 301, up 10% from the previous year and 15% above the five-year average of 262. The average diameter on Sept. 1 was 2.14 inches, 2% below the previous year and 2% below the five-year average of 2.18 inches.
TANGO AND W. MURCOTT AFOURER MANDARINS
The 2024-25 California forecast for the Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin varieties is 29 million 40-pound cartons. The forecast is based on a survey conducted from July 1 to Sept. 1.
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 666, up 12% from the previous year. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 1.3 inches, up 8% from last year for these varieties. Bearing acreage is estimated at 33,000, which results in a yield of 879 40-pound cartons per acre.
See the final production forecast for California and all other citrus-producing states for the past season (2023–24) here.
Source: CDFA
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Fundecitrus and its cooperators issued the first update to Brazil’s 2024–25 orange crop forecast on Sept. 10. The forecast of 215.78 million boxes for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt is down 7.1% from the initial May forecast of 232.38 million boxes. With a total reduction of 16.6 million boxes, all varieties are expected to have lower production. The numbers by variety are as follows:
- Hamlin, Westin and Rubi: 36.47 million boxes (1.8% decrease)
- Other early-season varieties: 14.89 million boxes (5.3% decrease)
- Pera Rio: 63.42 million boxes (10.6% decrease)
- Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha: 74.39 million boxes (8.8% decrease)
- Natal: 26.61 million boxes (1.4% decrease)
Additionally, it is estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in Brazil’s Triângulo Mineiro region.
The crop reduction is due to smaller fruit size, which is a direct consequence of the hot and dry weather. The weather conditions for the first four months of the crop season were worse than expected, with rainfall 31% lower, according to Climatempo data. High temperatures during the fall and winter intensified evapotranspiration, worsening the severity of the drought.
Higher temperatures also accelerated fruit ripening. This led to a faster harvest pace. Consequently, the orange development period is shorter, and more than half of the crop will be harvested under drought conditions.
The need to minimize losses caused by citrus greening also contributed to earlier harvest. As a result, by mid-August, about 45% of the crop had already been harvested, a significantly faster pace than in previous years when this percentage was around 30%.
Early harvest has a positive effect on reducing the fruit drop rate, mainly due to a reduction in the drop caused by greening. Initially projected at 18.5% in May, the fruit drop rate is now revised to 17.1%.
The average size of the harvested oranges will be smaller than originally estimated. In the current projection, 264 pieces of fruit will be required to fill a 90-pound box, which is 23 more pieces than estimated in May. The oranges are expected to weigh an average of 5.47 ounces, which is below the initial projection of 5.96 ounces. If confirmed, the average fruit weight will be less than last season (5.64 ounces).
Brazil’s next crop forecast update will be issued on Dec. 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
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Global production of tangerines/mandarins, grapefruit and lemons/limes is expected to climb in 2023–24, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported in its Citrus: World Markets and Trade publication.
TANGERINES/MANDARINS
Global tangerine/mandarin production for 2023–24 is estimated up 1.2 million tons to 38.2 million tons.
Here are expectations for major producing countries:
- Türkiye production is estimated to increase by 55% to a record 2.9 million tons, due to greater area harvested and favorable weather. Exports are estimated to be up 17% to 1 million tons.
- U.S. production is estimated 2% higher to 890,000 tons due to favorable weather and yields in California. Imports are higher to meet rising consumer and processing demand.
- China production is forecast 400,000 tons higher to 26.9 million tons due to favorable weather and larger crops. Exports are projected to be higher with the increase in production.
- European Union production is estimated to drop 297,000 tons to 2.7 million tons due to unfavorable weather. Imports are projected down with lower demand. Exports are estimated to be flat.
- Chile production is estimated down 10% to 242,000 tons due to persistent drought and insufficient water for irrigation. Exports are projected to be down.
- Morocco production is forecast up 2% to 950,000 tons, largely due to increased irrigation. Exports are forecast to decline.
- South Africa production is estimated to rise 8% to a record 780,000 tons, more than doubling from five years ago, on higher area and new plantings reaching full production. Exports are expected to rise with the higher production.
- Peru production is estimated up 10,000 tons to 560,000 tons. Exports are projected to be up.
GRAPEFRUIT
Global grapefruit production in 2023–24 is estimated to be up slightly to 6.9 million tons due to favorable weather and higher production in China and Türkiye. Exports are expected to increase.
LEMONS/LIMES
Global lemon/lime production in 2023–24 is estimated up 2% to 10.1 million tons with higher production in the European Union and Türkiye more than offsetting lower production in Argentina and Mexico. Global exports are expected to increase.
See global projections for oranges and orange juice here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Image by minadezhda/DepositPhotosGlobal orange production for 2023–24 is expected to rise slightly while orange juice (OJ) production dips. This forecast is from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) Citrus: World Markets and Trade July report.
ORANGES
Global orange production for 2023–24 is estimated to rise 1% to 47.4 million tons. Lower production in Brazil and the European Union is more than offset by larger crops in Egypt, the United States and Türkiye.
Here are country-by-country projections:
- U.S. production is estimated to rise 8% to 2.5 million tons. Imports and exports are projected to be flat.
- Brazil production is estimated down slightly to 15.3 million tons.
- China production is projected up slightly to a record 7.6 million tons. Imports are down while exports are estimated to nearly triple with the higher production.
- European Union production is expected to be down 2% to 5.5 million tons. Exports are estimated to be down, and imports are expected to rise.
- Mexico production is forecast up marginally to 4.9 million tons. Exports are flat.
- Egypt production is estimated to rise 100,000 tons to a record 3.7 million tons. Exports are projected to rise.
- South Africa production is estimated up 3% to a record 1.7 million tons. Exports are estimated to drop.
- Türkiye production is estimated to rebound over 30% to 1.7 million tons. Exports are estimated to reach a new record high.
- Morocco production is forecast to rise 37,000 tons to 820,000 tons. Exports are flat.
- Chile production is estimated down 2% to 177,000 tons. Exports are projected down.
ORANGE JUICE
Global OJ production for 2023–24 is expected to be 1.5 million tons at 65 degrees Brix, 3% lower than the previous forecast. The decline is due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, which accounts for more than 70% of global production.
Here is a country-by-country production summary:
- Brazil production is estimated down 9% to 1.1 million tons. Exports are down. Brazil is projected to account for about 75% of global OJ exports.
- Mexico production is projected to increase 11% to 155,000 tons. Exports are up with the rise in available supplies and continued demand from the United States, the top export market.
- U.S. production is forecast to rebound 9% to 93,000 tons. Lower imports are expected.
- European Union production is estimated to rise 4% to 50,000 tons due to the availability of oranges that do not meet size standards for fresh consumption. An increase in exports is estimated to exceed an increase in imports.
- South Africa is estimated up more than 50% to 58,800 tons. Exports are up.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Vanessa Loring on Pexels.comSouth African grapefruit, tangerine/mandarin and lemon production are all projected to increase in 2023–24 compared to the prior year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) semi-annual report.
GRAPEFRUIT
The 2023–24 forecast for grapefruit production is now 420,000 metric tons (MT), up from 415,000 MT the prior year. Of that, 202,000 MT is expected to be sold for processing.
The grapefruit planted area in South Africa in 2023–24 will continue its downward trend, shrinking 1% to 8,000 hectares. Grapefruit area peaked at around 9,900 hectares in 2011–12. Limpopo is the leading growing region for grapefruit, accounting for 56% of total area planted.
Exports of grapefruit are forecast at 218,000 MT, virtually unchanged from 2022–23 export volumes. The Netherlands was the leading market for South African grapefruit in 2022–23 (accounting for 34% of exports), followed by China (14%), Russia (10%) and Japan (8%).
South Africa is not a major importer of grapefruit. Imports are forecast at 5,000 MT in 2023–24, down from 8,000 MT the prior year.
TANGERINES/MANDARINS
South Africa’s 2023–24 tangerine/mandarin production forecast is 780,000 MT, up 8% from the previous season.
The tangerine/mandarin acreage is expected to increase by 1% to 27,000 hectares.
South Africa’s tangerine/mandarin exports are projected to increase by 8% to 670,000 MT in 2023–24. The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) are the largest foreign markets, accounting for 45% of total exports.
South African imports are minimal and forecast to remain below 4,000 MT in 2023–24.
LEMONS
Lemon production in 2023–24 is forecast at 780,000 MT, an increase of 3% from the previous season.
The area planted with lemons in South Africa has more than doubled over the past eight years, driven by global demand and rising global prices. However, the positive trend in area planted with lemons has flattened in recent years due to the bearish movement of export prices. The lemon area is expected to decrease slightly to 18,000 hectares in 2023–24.
The lemon export forecast for 2023–24 is 585,000 MT, up marginally from the previous two years. The EU and UK remained the main markets for South African lemons in 2022–23, accounting for almost 47% of total exports.
South African imports of lemons in 2023–24 are projected to shrink to around 2,000 MT. In 2022–23, the country imported 2,358 MT of lemons.
Orange and orange juice production in South Africa are also expected to increase; get the details here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Total European Union (EU) orange production in 2023–24 is expected to be the lowest in the last 10 years, the European Commission reported. The commission said production could fall by 5.4% year-on-year, to 5.6 million tons.
The expected drop in production is due to a production decline in Spain, the largest EU orange-producing country. On the other hand, production is expected to grow in Italy.
Overall, the drop in EU production can be attributed to yields that are 14% below the five-year average and 6.5% below the last marketing year.
The EU cultivated area of oranges in 2023–24 is 2% above the five-year average and up 1.2% from the prior year.
The production of oranges for processing increased by 2.6% compared to the prior year but is 13% below the five-year average.
The increasing trend of EU imports is expected to continue, fueled by the EU production reduction. In particular, EU imports of fresh oranges are expected to grow by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by increasing availability outside the EU. This year’s expected increase comes on top of a 42.5% import increase the prior year.
On the other hand, the reduction of EU production is expected to lead to an 18% reduction in EU orange exports. EU exports in 2023–24 are expected to be 32% lower than the five-year average. This is due to the reduction of the EU production as well as increasing competition from countries outside the EU.
EU exports of processed oranges are expected to increase 1.8% in 2023–24 compared to the prior year, but still remain 29% below the five-year average of processed orange exports.
The report on European oranges is part of a European Commission document, Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2024.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) also recently projected a decrease in European orange production. Get the details here.
Source: European Commission
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Photo by LukasFresh lemon production in Argentina in 2023–24 is forecast to decrease by 11% to 1,700 metric tons (MT). The forecast was made in a semi-annual report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
USDA FAS also has revised the number of fresh lemons that will be processed in 2023–24 to 1,340 MT, reflecting a 6% decrease from the last official estimate of 1,418 MT. This decrease is attributed to the lower production of lemons in Argentina for this marketing year.
CLIMATIC AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES
The negative trajectory is attributed to worsening climate conditions with higher temperatures than expected. Also, during harvest season, there were irregular and severe rains, which impacted the size of the lemons and damaged numerous lemon trees. The average fruit size was smaller than originally estimated, reducing total production.
Argentine lemon producers have faced substantial economic challenges due to persistent international overproduction in the fresh citrus market and stagnant demand. This has resulted in prolonged periods of lower prices over the past five to seven years compared to the previous decade.
Despite these challenges, the lemon sector has seen significant investment in new production techniques and technology over the past decade. Notably, 70% to 75% of Argentina’s total lemon production is now dedicated to the export of processed lemon products. This includes essential oils, frozen pulp and dehydrated peel.
VARIETIES AND PLANTED AREA
Lemons are grown primarily in the northwest provinces of Tucuman, Salta and Jujuy, with some minor production in northeastern Argentina. Eureka Frost, Lisboa Frost, Limoneira 8A and Génova EEAT are the main lemon varieties grown in Argentina.
Estimates for fresh lemon planted area were updated for 2023–24 to 34,500 hectares, which is a 16% decrease from previous estimates. The decline in planted area can be attributed to the international overproduction in the fresh citrus market coupled with stagnant demand.
Argentina’s orange and tangerine forecasts are also expected to decrease; get the details.
Source: USDA FAS
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Image by monticello/DepositPhotosSouth Africa’s orange and orange juice (OJ) production are projected to increase in 2023–24 compared to the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently.
ORANGES
Orange production for 2023–24 is forecast to increase to 1.69 million metric tons (MMT), from 1.63 MMT the prior year.
The South African area planted in oranges is expected to remain relatively unchanged at 42,990 hectares. Limpopo province is the leading orange-growing region in South Africa, accounting for 50% of total area, followed by the Eastern Cape (24%) and Western Cape (15%) provinces. Valencias account for two-thirds of total orange area, with navels accounting for the other third.
The orange export forecast is decreased by 12% from the prior year to 1.1 MMT. That’s in response to the expectation for smaller orange sizes leading to a decrease in cartons shipped to overseas markets. Growers are sending more of the crop for juicing due to a hike in prices for juice oranges.
South Africa exports oranges to more than 100 countries around the world. The European Union remains the largest export market, accounting for approximately 36% of orange exports.
South Africa’s orange imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 3,000 metric tons (MT) in 2023–24.
OJ
South African OJ production in 2023–24 is forecast at 58,800 MT, up from 36,900 MT the prior year.
South Africa’s growers produce oranges mainly for the fresh export market. However, some growers, particularly those in areas prone to hailstorm damage and other quality-degrading weather effects, produce oranges largely, and in some instances even solely, for processing.
OJ exports in 2023–24 are expected to improve by 14% over the prior year, to 47,000 MT. South Africa exports OJ mainly to countries in southern Africa, including Eswatini, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Zimbabwe. However, Europe also remains an important market for South African orange juice.
Imports of OJ will drop to around 800 MT in 2023–24, from 1,112 MT the prior year. Zimbabwe is the main supplier of OJ to South Africa.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on South African citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Anna NekrashevichFor 2023–24, mandarin and tangerine production in Peru is forecast at 560,000 metric tons (MT). This is a 2% increase from the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
WEATHER CHALLENGES
Weather presented several challenges for mandarin/tangerine producers. One challenge was above-average temperatures during summer (December 2023 to March 2024) due to warm sea conditions. Those higher temperatures resulted in increased pest presence. Summer heat waves lasting into the night impacted early varieties. Mandarins need cool weather at their later stages to achieve the color standard needed for exports.
PRODUCTION AREA
Harvested area in 2023–24 is forecast at 23,000 hectares, unchanged from the previous year. The tangerine production area is estimated at 4,500 hectares, while mandarins and other hybrids account for 18,500 hectares. Tangelos represent 15% of total mandarin/tangerine area.
Mandarins/tangerines are produced in 13 regions (out of 25). Coastal areas account for 60% of total production.
Peru’s main production areas for mandarins and tangerines are the regions of Lima, accounting for 36% of total production; Junin, 30%; and Ica, 20%.
The harvest season in Peru goes from March to October, peaking from June to August. However, the country produces mandarins/tangerines all year long.
Peru has more than 3,000 small producers with an average of 3 hectares. Yields can range from 12 to 20 MT per hectare.
EXPORT MARKET
Peruvian mandarin/tangerine exports are expected to slightly increase in 2023–24 to 210,000 MT. Between January to December 2023, Peru exported fresh mandarins/tangerines primarily to the United States (46%), Netherlands (14%) and the United Kingdom (10%). Exports reached 36 markets globally.
Exports to the United States have grown consistently in the last few years. However, in 2022–23, exports to the United States declined 30% to 95,000 MT.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on Peruvian mandarins/tangerines here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) issued its final citrus forecast for the 2023–24 season on July 10.
FLORIDA
The Florida all-orange forecast rose 1% from the June forecast to 17.96 million boxes. That exceeds 2022–23 production of 15.82 million boxes but is far below 2021–22 production of 41.2 million boxes. Non-Valencia orange production is unchanged at 6.76 million boxes. Valencia production creeped up from 11.1 million boxes to 11.2 million boxes.
Florida’s all-grapefruit forecast remains unchanged from June at 1.79 million boxes. White varieties are at 240,000 boxes, and red grapefruit is at 1.55 million boxes.
Florida tangerine and mandarin production is holding steady at 450,000 boxes, the same amount that was estimated in June.
CALIFORNIA
California’s citrus production rose in all categories.
The all-orange forecast rose from 46 million boxes to 47.5 million boxes. Non-Valencias increased by 1 million boxes and Valencias by 500,000 boxes.
Grapefruit ticked up slightly from 4.1 million boxes to 4.2 million boxes.
Tangerines and mandarins rose 2 million boxes to 24 million boxes.
The lemon crop saw the biggest gain, jumping from 22 million boxes to 26 million boxes.
TEXAS
Texas saw a minor increase in all-orange production, estimated at 1.18 million boxes. Non-Valencias fell 10,000 boxes while Valencias rose 90,000 boxes.
Grapefruit production declined from 2.6 million boxes to 2.4 million boxes.
ARIZONA
Arizona’s lemon crop estimate fell from 1.05 million boxes to 950,000 boxes.
See USDA’s July citrus forecast report here.
The USDA will release its initial 2024–25 citrus crop forecast on Oct. 11 at approximately 12:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on the Citrus Industry website.
Source: USDA/NASS
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Photo by Karolina Kołodziejczak on UnsplashThe U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) semi-annual European Union (EU) citrus report forecasts a decline in mandarin production and an increase in lemon production for 2023–24.
TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
EU tangerine and mandarin production in 2023–24 is forecast at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), down from 2.9 MMT the prior season. USDA FAS reported that unfavorable weather conditions caused production reductions and smaller fruit size.
Tangerine and mandarin imports by the EU are forecast to be marginally down at 470,000 metric tons (MT) versus 482,000 MT the prior season. South Africa, Morocco, Israel and Turkey are the EU’s leading suppliers of mandarins and tangerines.
EU tangerine and mandarin exports are projected to hold steady at 295,000 MT in 2023–24 compared to 296,000 MT the prior year. The EU’s main export market destinations include the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine, Norway and Serbia.
LEMONS
EU lemon production is forecast to recover from the low production of 1.45 MMT registered in 2022–23 and reach nearly 1.7 MMT in 2023–24. The increase is driven by both a larger area harvested and improved yields registered in Spain, the largest EU producer.
The production increase in Spain more than offsets production reductions in Italy and Greece, which combined account for nearly one third of the EU’s lemon production.
Trade data available for the first half of 2023–24 reveal an increase in EU lemon imports, to 600,000 MT from 581,000 MT the prior year. That is mainly driven by increased shipments originating in Türkiye, which is the EU’s leading supplier during the Northern Hemisphere production season. Conversely, during the off-season, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina are the leading lemon suppliers to the EU.
EU lemon exports in 2023–24 are projected above 2022–23 (140,000 MT versus 122,000 MT). Main destinations for EU lemons include the United Kingdom and Switzerland.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on European citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Engin AkyurtIn a recent semi-annual report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) projected 2023–24 lemon production in Chile will increase from the prior year while the country’s orange and tangerine/mandarin production will decrease.
LEMONS
Lemon production in 2023–24 is projected to grow by 6.7% from the prior year and reach 175,000 metric tons (MT).
Lemon planted area will reach 8,150 hectares, a 1% increase from the prior year.
In 2023–24, Chilean lemon exports are expected to increase by 8.8% and reach 74,000 MT. The top market for Chilean lemons is the United States.
In 2022–23, Chile imported 13,200 MT of lemons. The top supplier of lemons is Peru, followed by Brazil, Colombia and the United States.
ORANGES
In 2023–24, orange production is projected to decrease by 1.6% from the prior year and total 177,000 MT.
Planting area is expected to drop 1% to 6,300 hectares.
Orange exports in 2023–24 are estimated to decrease by 3.2% and total 92,000 MT. The top market for Chilean oranges is the United States.
In 2022–23, Chile imported 1,396 MT of oranges, an 18.1% decrease from the prior year. The United States was the top supplier of oranges, with 99% of market share.
TANGERINES/MANDARINS
In 2023–24, tangerine/mandarin production is expected to decrease by 9.7% and total 242,000 MT.
The area planted with mandarins in Chile increases nearly 1,000 hectares per year. In 2023–24, USDA FAS estimates that area planted will reach 12,000 hectares.
In 2023–24, exports are projected to decrease by 10.6% to 211,000 MT. The top export market for Chilean mandarins is the United States, which received 94% of the export volume in 2022–23. Other markets for Chilean mandarins are Canada, Spain and Mexico.
Chilean import volume of mandarins does not surpass 1,000 MT per year. In 2022–23, Chile imported 613 MT of mandarins, a 16% increase from 2021–22. The United States was the top supplier of mandarins with a 45% market share.
See the full USDA FAS report on Chilean citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Export expectations are the only major changes made in a recent U.S.Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) semi-annual citrus report for Morocco. Production forecasts remain the same as in the agency’s December 2023 annual citrus report.Here’s a look at the export changes:
TANGERINES/MANDARINS
Tangerine/mandarin export expectations for 2023–24 were revised down to 400,000 metric tons (MT) from actual exports of 453,000 MT a year earlier. Geopolitical events, including the wars in Ukraine and Israel, have led to three major challenges for Moroccan exports. They are 1) inflation of inputs and logistical costs, 2) the closure of the Suez Canal and blocked access to markets in the Middle East and Asia, and 3) increased competition from Spain, Chile and Türkiye.
Chile produces a large volume of clementines and, with new late-season varieties, has extended its export season, adding to the competitive pressure on Moroccan citrus in the North American market. Typically, Morocco would enter the market on the North American East Coast in November, but with more late-season varieties, Chile has cut into these exports.
The biggest markets for Moroccan tangerines/mandarins are, in order: the European Union, Russia, the United States and Canada.
ORANGES AND ORANGE JUICE
Fresh orange exports in 2023–24 are expected to increase to 40,000 MT from 39,000 the prior season.
Moroccan fresh orange exporters are facing significant competition from Egypt. Primary markets for Moroccan oranges are the European Union, Canada, the United States and Russia.
Moroccan orange juice exports are expected to decline to 2,500 MT in 2023–24 down from 2,882 MT the prior season.
LEMONS/LIMES
USDA FAS revised its lemon/limes export numbers for 2023–24 downward to 4,000 MT from 7,000 MT the prior season. It reported that Moroccan exporters have opted to prioritize the local market due to favorable pricing.
PRODUCTION NOTES
Although production expectations weren’t changed in the latest report, USDA FAS did offer some observations about production. It cited citrus industry reports that two consecutive seasons of low production in Morocco are due to higher temperatures and drought. The extreme heat of summer 2023 negatively impacted flowering, and the lack of rain had severe consequences.
USDA FAS reported seeing ample evidence of abandoned orchards during a recent visit to Morocco’s Northeast region.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Alena DarmelThe U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) projected a slight decrease in European orange production in 2023–24 and a slight increase in orange juice (OJ) and grapefruit production.
ORANGES
The USDA FAS semi-annual report projects 2023–24 EU orange production at 5.475 million metric tons (MMT), down from the already short prior-year crop of 5.58 MMT. Orange production is the largest citrus category within the EU, and Spain accounts for 50% of production.
Excessive rains during fruit setting, drought and warm conditions, along with irrigation restrictions hampered yields and negatively affected fruit sizes. Better output in Italy did not suffice to compensate for the productivity losses in Spain and, to a lesser extent, in Greece and Portugal.
Imports of oranges in 2023–24 are expected to increase slightly to 1.09 MMT to offset the drop in domestic production. Main import origins include Egypt, overlapping with the EU’s crop season, and South Africa and Zimbabwe during the off-season.
EU orange exports in 2023–24 are projected to decrease to 300,000 metric tons (MT) from 343,000 MT the prior year. Main destinations for EU oranges, primarily exported out of Spain, include the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Serbia, Norway and Canada.
OJ
The larger share of oranges that don’t meet size standards for fresh consumption and the somewhat higher volume of oranges imported are projected to push domestic OJ production up to 49.6 MT in 2023–24. Prior-year production was 48.4 MT.
The EU OJ-import forecast for 2023–24 is revised up to 528,000 MT from 525,090 MT the prior year. Orange juice import volumes from Egypt, the EU’s second largest supplier after Brazil, registered the largest increase in volume.
OJ exports for 2023–24 are now projected at 116,000 MT, up from 110,798 MT the prior year. The United Kingdom is by far the largest destination of EU OJ.
GRAPEFRUIT
EU grapefruit production in 2023–24 is forecast at 108,000 MT compared to 98,000 MT the prior year. The production rebound is entirely driven by Spain, the EU’s largest grapefruit-producing state. Spain hit a grapefruit production record in 2023–24.
Grapefruit imports are expected to rise to 210,000 MT from 209,000 MT the prior year. This is mostly driven by increased imports originating in China, Türkiye, South Africa and Israel.
EU grapefruit exports in 2023–24 are projected to stay at the same level as the prior year (20,000 MT). EU grapefruit exports are only minor and fairly concentrated to EU neighboring countries such as the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine, Russia, Norway and Serbia.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on European citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Evie Fjord on UnsplashThe U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has reduced its 2023–24 production forecasts for Argentine oranges and tangerines by 44% and 30%, respectively, since the last forecasts. The 2023–24 crops are now expected to be 650,000 metric tons (MT) of oranges and 280,000 MT of tangerines.
The decrease in production is due to a combination of factors, including worse than expected weather conditions like drought and untimely rain during harvest. The adverse weather, worsened by the extended drought being more severe than expected, led to damage to many orange and tangerine trees. Fruit size and yield were negatively affected, reducing overall production.
GROWING REGIONS AND VARIETIES
Oranges and tangerines are grown in both the northwestern (oranges) and northeastern (oranges and tangerines) regions of Argentina. The main orange varieties grown in northwestern Argentina are Hamlin, Pineapple, Robertson and Navel. In the northeast, they are Navel, Salustiana and improved
Valencia (Midnight, Delta Seedless). The main tangerine varieties are Clementina, Clemenvilla, Ellendale, Malvasio, Montenegrina, Murcott and Ortanique.
PLANTED AREA
The projected planted area for 2023–24 remains unchanged for oranges and tangerines at 37,000 hectares and 26,900 hectares, respectively, since the last official estimates. There has been no significant investment in area expansion in recent years.
PROCESSING
The tonnage of oranges that will be processed in MY 2023–2024 is projected to increase 10% to 220,000 MT.
The tonnage of tangerines that will be processed is projected to increase 33% to 80,000 MT.
TRADE
Fresh orange exports from Argentina are forecast at 35,000 MT for 2023–24, a decrease of 53%.
Tangerine exports are estimated at 24,000 MT, a decrease of 57%.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on Argentine citrus, which covers lemons, oranges and tangerines, here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Image by davizro/DepositPhotosTürkiye is expected to produce substantially more oranges and orange juice (OJ) in 2023–24 than in the prior season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently.
ORANGES
The orange yield is forecast to increase 31% to 1.73 million metric tons due to favorable weather conditions in spring 2023, USDA FAS stated in a semi-annual report.
The Washington and Yapha varieties, which account for 70% of total orange production, are the main drivers behind the overall yield increase. The yield per tree has increased 71% in the Yapha variety and 38% in the Washington variety. The yield increase is mostly going to be seen in the Aegean region.
The Mediterranean fruit fly remains a major concern, causing quality and quantity losses. To combat the pest, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry distributes pheromone traps for fruit flies to farmers free of charge through provincial offices and member associations.
Orange exports in 2023–24 are expected to increase 39.7% from the previous season to 246,000 metric tons (MT).
USDA FAS revised its forecast of Turkish orange imports in 2023–24 to 2,000 MT from 30,000 MT. That large import reduction is due to a surplus of domestic production and restriction of imports from Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). The restriction on imports from TRNC came as a result of greening disease in TRNC orchards.
ORANGE JUICE
OJ production is forecast at 12,100 MT in 2023–24 due to increasing numbers of oranges sent to processing. Türkiye produced 9,240 MT of orange juice in 2022–23.
OJ exports are forecast at 5,000 MT for 2023–24 due to expected demand increases from importing countries in concert with China’s decrease in production. Türkiye exported 4,078 MT of OJ in 2022–23, mainly to Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
OJ imports in 2023–24 are estimated to decrease to 1,800 MT due to stable demand from the domestic market. Türkiye imported 2,018 MT of OJ in 2022–23, mostly from Cyprus and Brazil.
See the full USDA FAS semi-annual report on Turkish citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Wooden ladders leaned on orange trees and yellow plastic pails on the ground during the harvest season.
By siculodoc/DepositPhotos imageThe June 11 federal citrus crop forecast for 2023-24 shows mostly slight changes for all Florida varieties and no production changes in other states.
ORANGES
The Florida all-orange forecast rose less than 1% from May, or 60,000 boxes, to 17.86 million boxes. That exceeds 2022-23 production of 15.82 million boxes but is far below 2021-22 production of 41.2 million boxes.
Non-Valencia orange production is forecast down 1% to 6.76 million boxes. Valencia production is forecast up 1% to 11.1 million boxes.
GRAPEFRUIT
Florida’s all-grapefruit forecast dipped 1%, or 10,000 boxes, to 1.79 million boxes. The total 10,000-box dip was in white varieties, now forecast at 240,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 1.55 million boxes.
TANGERINES AND TANGELO
Florida tangerines and tangelos saw the biggest change in the forecast – a drop of 10% to 450,000 boxes.
OTHER STATES
The unchanged forecasts for other states were:
- Arizona lemons, 1.05 million boxes
- California oranges, 46 million boxes
- California grapefruit, 4.1 million boxes
- California lemons, 22 million boxes
- California tangerines and mandarins, 22 million boxes
- Texas oranges, 1.1 million boxes
- Texas grapefruit, 2.6 million boxes
See the full June forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) here.
The final update to the 2023-24 citrus crop forecast will be on July 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Source: USDA NASS
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About the Author
Ernie NeffSenior Correspondent at Large
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The 2024–25 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is 232.38 million 90-pound boxes. The projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36% as compared to the previous crop of 307.22 million boxes.
VARIETY BREAKDOWN
Production by variety is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production compared to the 2023–24 crop):
• 37.12 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi (-36.10%)
• 15.72 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada (-15.07%)
• 70.97 million boxes of Pera Rio (-27.3%)
• 81.58 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha (-22.45%)
• 26.99 million boxes of Natal (-2.91%).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region (-47.48%).
While the forecast is substantially down from the 2023–24 season, it is close to the average harvest for the last decade. Should this forecast hold true, it will be the second smallest crop since 1988–89, when forecasts using the objective method began to be performed in Brazil’s citrus belt.
CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Climate is the main cause for the drop in production. This season, the combination of high temperatures, high evapotranspiration rates and an intense water shortage during the crucial period of flowering and fruit setting resulted in a low number of fruits per tree. The forecast of drier weather over the next six months is expected to continue impacting the crop. This will further hinder fruit growth and increase the challenge of keeping groves supplied with water, even where irrigation systems are installed.
FRUIT WEIGHT AND NUMBER PER TREE
The projected weight of oranges at harvest is 5.96 ounces (241 fruits per box), representing an increase of 6% as compared to the average weight of 5.64 ounces recorded in the previous crop (255 fruits per box) and 4% above the average weight of the last 10 crops (5.73 ounces, resulting in 251 fruits per box).
The average number of fruits per tree in April 2024, without considering the drop that occurs throughout the season, is 453, which represents a decrease of 28.66% compared to the previous crop.
FRUIT DROP AND OTHER FACTORS
Although this crop has a smaller volume of fruit to be harvested, and a high proportion of fruit from the first bloom, the early fruit drop rate is expected to remain high and is projected at 18.5%. The main reason for this is the increased intensity of citrus greening.
Other factors that are expected to continue impacting this season are:
- Fruit fly and fruit borer attack
- Fruit peel cracking
- Fruit drop caused by mechanical damage resulting from frequent machinery movement in plots with a high density of plants.
YIELD AND BEARING TREES
The average yield this season is 691 boxes per hectare and 1.38 boxes per tree, a decrease of 24.14% as compared to the 911 boxes per hectare and 1.81 boxes per tree harvested in the 2023–24 crop.
Bearing trees total 168.54 million and occupy an area of 336,267 hectares in this crop season. These figures represent a decrease of 748,000 trees.
See Brazil’s full orange crop forecast report here.
Source: Fundecitrus
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Statistics Board released an update to the 2023–24 citrus crop forecast on May 10.
FLORIDA ORANGES
The Florida orange forecast is lowered 1 million boxes to 17.8 million boxes, representing a 5% decrease from the April forecast. The reduction is in the Valencia crop, which dropped 8% from 12 million boxes to 11 million boxes. The forecast for non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season and Navel varieties) remains unchanged at 6.8 million boxes. The Navel forecast of 180,000 boxes is 3% of the non-Valencia total.
If realized, Florida orange production will be 13% more than last season’s final production.
The Row Count survey, conducted April 29–30, indicated 97% of the Valencia rows are harvested. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30 and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the results of the processors survey support decreasing the Valencia orange forecast.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT
The all-grapefruit forecast is 1.8 million boxes, down from April’s 2 million boxes. This is a 10% decrease. White grapefruit is unchanged at 250,000 boxes; red grapefruit fell from 1.75 to 1.55 million boxes. The Row Count survey, conducted April 29-30, indicated the grapefruit harvest is relatively complete.
FLORIDA TANGERINES AND TANGELOS
The forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos is holding steady at 500,000 boxes, unchanged from the April forecast. This number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
OTHER STATES
In the May forecast update, there were no changes for citrus varieties produced in California, Texas or Arizona.
See the USDA’s May citrus crop forecast report here.
The USDA will release its next update to the 2023–24 citrus crop forecast on June 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on the Citrus Industry website.
Source: USDA
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The World Citrus Organisation’s (WCO) preliminary forecast for the 2024 Southern Hemisphere citrus season projects total production will decrease 0.77% from the prior year. Production for Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay is estimated at 24.34 million tons this year.
The WCO broke the forecast down by variety:
- Orange production is forecast to decrease 5.66% from 2023, to 15.48 million tons.
- Soft citrus (mandarin) production is expected to increase 11.58% to 3.33 million tons.
- A 5.69% production increase to 3.24 million tons is projected for lemon production.
- Grapefruit production should decline by 3.89% to 532,539 tons.
- Limes are forecast to reach 1.76 tons, which is 10.57% above the 2023 figure.
CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IMPACT PRODUCTION
The Southern Hemisphere’s 2024 season has been impacted by difficult climatic conditions, as drought-like conditions negatively affected production. However, expectations have improved recently, leading to only a slight decrease in production.
EXPORTS TO INCREASE
Despite the expected overall production decrease, citrus exports from the Southern Hemisphere are expected to continue increasing. Exports are projected at 4.16 million tons in 2024, up 7.4% from 2023.
The Southern Hemisphere production and export forecasts were presented during the WCO’s recent annual general meeting.
WCO LEADERSHIP CHANGE
Also at the meeting, WCO had its first leadership transition. Leadership switched from previous co-chairs Justin Chadwick for the South Hemisphere and José Antonio García for the North Hemisphere to new co-chairs Sergio del Castillo of Peru for the South Hemisphere and Badr Bennis of Morocco for the North Hemisphere. Castillo and Bennis will guide the association’s work for the next two years.
The non-profit WCO, based in Brussels, Belgium, is the platform for dialogue and action for the global citrus community. It unites citrus-producing countries and citrus stakeholders to facilitate collective action in the citrus sector, for both fresh and processed categories.
Source: The World Citrus Organisation
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) issued a citrus forecast update on April 11. Florida production decreased while other states saw gains.
FLORIDA
The forecast for all Florida oranges dropped 5% from 19.8 million boxes in the March forecast to 18.8 million boxes in April. The entire 1 million box reduction was in the late-season Valencia variety, which dipped to 12 million boxes.
The non-Valencia harvest is complete, and 51% of the Valencia crop had been harvested as of late March. Final Valencia fruit size is below the average, requiring 271 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage, measured at 50%, is above the average.
The Florida grapefruit forecast dropped 9% from 2.2 million boxes in March to 2 million boxes in April. The forecast for red grapefruit dipped from 1.9 million boxes to 1.75 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast dropped from 300,000 boxes to 250,000 boxes. By late March, 97% of red and white grapefruit rows had been harvested.
The forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos is unchanged at 500,000 boxes.
OTHER STATES
There were several positive forecast changes in other citrus-producing states.
In Texas, the all-orange crop forecast rose from 950,000 boxes to 1.1 million boxes. There were increases for both Valencia and non-Valencia oranges. The Texas grapefruit forecast climbed from 2.35 million boxes to 2.6 million boxes.
California’s grapefruit forecast rose from 3.8 million boxes to 4.1 million boxes, and its lemon forecast climbed from 20 million boxes to 22 million boxes.
The Arizona lemon forecast rose from 900,000 boxes to 1.05 million boxes.
See the full USDA NASS citrus crop forecast report here.
The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on May 10 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Source: USDA NASS
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Fundecitrus and its cooperators published the final orange production forecast on April 10 for the 2023–24 crop season in Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt. The forecast calls for 307.22 million 90-pound boxes of oranges, unchanged from the February forecast.
The final forecast by variety is:
- 58.09 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties
- 18.51 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties
- 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety
- 105.2 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties
- 27.8 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety
The season’s production was 2.2% lower than the prior year’s crop of 314.21 million boxes. Determining factors for the production decrease included a precipitation deficit, the worsening of citrus greening and a hastened harvest pace that shortened the oranges’ development period.
These conditions resulted in fruits smaller than expected, particularly for mid-season and late varieties. Although the accelerated harvest pace posed challenges to fruit growth, it did yield a positive outcome by reducing losses attributed to premature fruit drop. However, the fruit drop rate remained above historical levels, mainly due to the impact of greening.
The drop rate for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi was 10.8%. The other early varieties had a slightly higher drop rate of 12.1%. Pera Rio had a drop rate of 19%, while Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties had a higher drop rate of 22%. The Natal variety had the highest drop rate, at 28.9%.
Production loss, resulting from premature fruit drop, was estimated at approximately 72 million boxes. The main reason for the production loss this season was greening, contributing 8.35% (of the total 19%), which represents 32 million boxes that dropped prematurely. Next, with 5.05%, came the fruit borer and the fruit fly, together resulting in an estimated loss of 19 million boxes.
The initial orange crop forecast and tree inventory for the 2024–25 season will be released on May 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
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California’s 2023–24 Valencia orange forecast, issued by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), is 16 million cartons. The forecast was based on the results of the 2023–24 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey conducted from Jan. 2 to Feb. 27.
CDFA reported that Southern and Central California have received significantly more rain than usual over the winter and spring, leading to some groves being flooded.
Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 529, a 14% decrease from the previous year and 7% below the five-year average of 567.
The average March 1 fruit diameter was 2.433 inches, up 2% from the previous year but 2% below the five-year average of 2.481.
PRODUCTION AND ACREAGE TRENDS
The 2023–24 16-million-carton forecast is larger than California Valencia production in the previous three seasons. Final utilized Valencia production was 13.4 million cartons in 2022–23, 15.2 million cartons in 2021–22 and 15.4 million cartons in 2020–21.
California Valencia production has dwindled since 30 million cartons were produced on 43,000 bearing acres in 2009–10. There are now only 25,000 acres of bearing Valencias in California. The average number of Valencia trees per acre in California has been 124 or 123 every year since 2008–09.
SURVEY SAMPLE AND HISTORY
For the survey, a sample of 375 Valencia orange groves was randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, year planted and variety representation in the state, with 348 of these groves being utilized in this survey. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange-producing counties of Tulare, Kern, San Diego, Ventura and Fresno.
A Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey was conducted from the 1985–86 to 1993–94 seasons before suspension due to a lack of funding. The survey has been conducted yearly since it was reinstated for the 1999–00 season, with the exception of the 2006–07 season due to a substantial freeze.
The forecast was issued in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) projects that lemon and grapefruit production in Türkiye (previously known as Turkey) will both increase in 2023–24.
LEMON
Lemon production is forecast to increase 20% to 1.58 million metric tons (MMT). The increase is due to favorable weather conditions during spring 2023.
Half of the total lemon production in Türkiye is produced in Mersin province. The main problems reported by lemon producers are low farm selling prices versus high market prices, labor costs for tree trimming, diseases and pests, input costs, crop quality and marketing issues. Another key problem is the struggle to keep lemons in cold storage for export; storage costs are expensive.
In 2023–24 lemon exports are expected to increase 15% to 637,000 metric tons (MT) due to supply.
The Mediterranean fruit fly remains the biggest concern among producers and exporters, as the pest is the reason for many of the rejections of Turkish lemons at European Union and Russian ports.
Türkiye imports a very low quantity of lemons, mostly from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
GRAPEFRUIT
In 2023–24, Turkish grapefruit production is expected to increase 9.5% to 217,000 MT due to favorable weather conditions during spring 2023.
Most of the grapefruit in Türkiye is produced in the Adana province.
Grapefruit exports are expected to reach 100,000 MT in 2023–24, 4% higher than in 2022–23. The increase is due to expected higher export demand. The main export destinations are Russia, Poland and Romania. Russia accounts for 20% of all exports.
Due to climate change, especially extreme temperatures, Türkiye is struggling to maintain sweetness in its grapefruit; most grapefruit are sour and bitter. For this reason, Türkiye is not a stable supply market but is a backup possibility if the other large exporting countries are not able to produce enough grapefruit in a given year.
Grapefruit imports are expected to remain small at approximately 1,000 MT.
Read more on the outlooks for Turkish tangerines and oranges and orange juice. See the full USDA FAS report on Turkish citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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There were two changes to the Florida citrus forecast in the March 8 report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS).
Florida’s grapefruit forecast dipped 8% in March compared to the February forecast, and its tangerine and tangelo forecast declined 9%.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUITThe entire decline in Florida grapefruit was in the red varieties, down by 200,000 boxes to 1.9 million boxes. The total Florida grapefruit crop is now forecast at 2.2 million boxes, down from 2.4 million boxes in February. A Feb. 26–27 row count indicated 84% of grapefruit rows have been harvested.
FLORIDA TANGERINES AND TANGELOSThe forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos is 500,000 boxes. This is down 50,000 boxes from February but up 4% from last season’s utilization of 480,000 boxes.
FLORIDA ORANGESFlorida’s all-orange forecast was unchanged at 19.8 million boxes.
The row count survey conducted Feb. 26–27 showed 98% of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding navels, are harvested.
Harvest of Valencia oranges is still in the early stages. Current Valencia fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest, requiring 260 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.
OTHER STATESCalifornia’s all-orange forecast rose 200,000 boxes from February to 46 million boxes. The entire increase was in Valencia oranges, now forecast at 8 million boxes.
California’s grapefruit, tangerine/tangelo and lemon forecasts were all unchanged.
Forecasts for all Texas citrus varieties were unchanged, as was the forecast for Arizona lemons.
See the full USDA NASS citrus crop forecast report here.
The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on April 11 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Source: USDA NASS
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Tangerine production in 2023–24 in Türkiye (previously known as Turkey) is forecast to increase 55% to 2.88 million metric tons (MMT), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). The huge increase is due to favorable spring rains and temperature conditions during blossoming in March 2023.
The yield in Türkiye’s Aegean region is expected to increase more than 100%. However, rains in spring 2023 have caused the size of tangerines to be smaller than in previous seasons.
Satsuma is the most widely produced variety in the Aegean region. Eighty percent of total satsuma production is sent to exports.
Tangerines are the most produced citrus fruit in Türkiye, with 84% of the fruit being produced in the Mediterranean region. Satsuma is also the dominant variety in this region.
COST AND CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Tangerine producers in Türkiye are struggling with labor shortages and rising input costs, such as fuel, electricity, fertilizers and crop protectants. According to growers, tangerines are the most expensive fruit to produce.
Another problem facing tangerine producers is the effect of climate change, which has had a noticeable impact on the quality and quantity of fruit. Learn more about the impact of climate change on Turkish citrus here.
EXPORTS UP, IMPORTS DOWN
Tangerine exports for 2023–24 are forecast to jump to 1.3 MMT due to both high yield and quality. Most satsumas are being exported to Russia, Ukraine and Serbia. Tangerine exports in 2022–23 totaled 894,276 MT, valued at $520 million.
Tangerine imports in 2023–24 are expected to decrease slightly to 50,000 MT due to a surplus of domestic production. In 2022–23, Türkiye imported 52,000 MT of tangerines, mostly from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
See the full USDA FAS report on Turkish citrus here. In addition to tangerines, the report covers oranges, orange juice, lemons and grapefruit.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by Jana OhajdovaTotal U.S. citrus production levels are projected to continue their long-term decline before stabilizing through 2033, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Office of the Chief Economist recently reported. The trend is attributed to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines.
In the report, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033, total U.S. citrus production is projected to decline from about 11.2 billion pounds in 2022 to approximately 9.9 billion pounds in 2024. Production is then projected to remain fairly stable for several years, with 11.1 billion pounds produced in 2033.
CALIFORNIA AND FLORIDA CITRUS
California is expected to remain the production leader of fresh oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and lemons but is expected to see mild reductions to the volume of its grapefruit and orange crops. Grapefruit and oranges are projected to lose market share to other citrus and non-citrus fruits. California production of lemons and tangerines, including easy-peel mandarins, is expected to increase throughout the projection period.
Florida production of oranges, grapefruit and tangerines is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses.
CITRUS VALUE TO RISE
The total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase 25% during the 2022–23 period due to higher prices. The projected farm value of U.S. citrus is pegged at $2.98 billion in 2022, rising to $3.7 billion in 2033.
TOTAL AG INCOME TO DECLINE
Net farm income for all agriculture is expected to decrease $7.3 billion, or 4.8%, from $151.1 billion in 2023 to $143.8 billion in 2024, the office reported. Net farm income is projected at only $123.6 billion in 2033. Lower cash receipts, due to lower commodity prices, are the primary contributors to the projected decline in net farm income for 2024 relative to 2023.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of the Chief Economist
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Global lemon/lime production in 2023–24 is forecast up 225,000 tons from the prior year to 10 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. Higher production in the European Union, South Africa and Turkey more than offsets lower production in Mexico and the United States.
Here are the regional lemon/lime forecasts for 2023–24:
Turkey production is forecast up 264,000 tons to a record 1.6 million tons due to favorable weather and higher yields. Exports are at near record levels with the increase in available supplies.
South Africa production is forecast up 10% to 720,000 tons due to favorable weather. Record exports are expected for the eighth year in a row. The European Union will continue to account for more than one-third of the South African lemon/lime exports.
Mexico production is forecast to be 5% lower at 3 million tons as growers expect citrus greening to affect yields. Exports are forecast to be lower due to the reduced supplies. The United States will continue to account for nearly all of Mexico’s exports.
Argentina production is forecast to be up 3% to 1.9 million tons due to favorable weather. Exports are forecast to be higher with the increased supplies.
European Union production is forecast up 16% to 1.7 million tons, attributed to an all-time-record harvest in Spain. Exports are up with the higher production while imports are down.
United States production is forecast down 254,000 tons to 758,000 tons on lower yields in California due to unfavorable weather. Because of the reduction, fruit for processing is forecast to be down, and imports are expected to be up.
Chile production is estimated to rise 11,000 tons to 175,000 tons on higher planted area. Producers are also focusing on increasing productivity and yields by improving water and disease management. Exports are expected to be up. The United States is expected to remain Chile’s top export market.
See the full USDA FAS report on world citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Photo by LakerGlobal grapefruit production in 2023–24 is estimated up slightly from the prior year to 6.9 million tons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. A slight increase in China more than offset lower production in South Africa. World exports of grapefruit are projected to increase while fruit for processing is forecast to be lower.
Here are regional grapefruit forecasts:
China production is forecast up slightly to 5.2 million tons due to favorable weather and higher yield. Exports and fruit for processing are expected to be up with the increased production.
Mexico production is forecast up 2% to 500,000 tons with growth tempered by high production costs and logistics. Exports are expected to be up with the higher production.
South Africa production is forecast down 5% to 400,000 tons. Exports are forecast to be up as less fruit goes to processing and the Port of Durban operations return to normalcy by the time the grapefruit export season commences in March. China and the European Union are expected to be the top export markets for South African grapefruit.
United States production is forecast up 6% to 316,000 tons as output in Florida rebounds from the impacts of Hurricane Ian. Fruit for processing and exports are projected to be up with the rise in supplies. Imports are also forecast to be higher due to demand.
Turkey production is forecast to rise 10% to 217,000 tons as favorable weather enhances freeze recovery. The European Union and Russia are anticipated to be the top export markets.
European Union production is forecast to be up 6% to 104,000 tons due to recovery from last year’s drought in Spain. Imports are expected to decline due to expected lower demand. Exports are forecast to be up with the rise in production.
See the full USDA FAS report on world citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Fresh lemon production in Argentina in 2022–23 is forecast to decline to 1.65 million metric tons (MMT), down from 2.1 MMT the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently. The decline is due to the impact of rising costs, which have prompted smaller producers to limit the maintenance needed on lemon-bearing trees and ...
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently estimated that world citrus production is down for oranges, mandarins, orange juice (OJ), grapefruit and lemons/limes. For all categories, production will be lower in 2022–23 than in the prior year.
OJGlobal OJ production for 2022–23 is estimated 9% lower to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT). Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union (EU), Mexico and the United States.
Brazil production is forecast down slightly to 1.1 MMT. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for three-quarters of global OJ exports.
Mexico production is projected to decrease by 18% to 176,000 metric tons (MT). The United States is expected to remain Mexico’s top export market for OJ.
U.S. production is estimated to fall nearly 50% to a record low 85,000 MT due to low production in Florida.
EU production is estimated to drop 21% to 64,000 MT on a reduced quantity of oranges being used for processing.
GRAPEFRUIT
Global grapefruit production in 2022–23 is estimated down 2% to 6.8 MMT due to unfavorable weather and reduced production in China, Mexico, Turkey and the United States. China, with an estimated 5.15 MMT of production, accounts for three fourths of global production. Mexico and South Africa are tied for second in expected production at 420,000 MT, followed by the United States at 303,000 MT.
LEMONS AND LIMESGlobal production of lemons and limes in 2022–23 is estimated down 11% to 9.1 MMT with lower production in Argentina, the EU, Turkey and the United States due to unfavorable weather. Mexico is the largest lemon/lime producer at an expected 2.8 MMT, followed by Argentina (1.65 MMT), the EU (1.47 MMT), Turkey (1.32 MMT) and the United States (777,000 MT).
See the full USDA FAS report on all categories of world citrus production in 2022–23 here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Global production of tangerines/mandarins for 2022–23 is estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) to be 36.9 million metric tons (MMT), down 900,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior year. China production, which accounts for almost 72% of global tangerine/mandarin production, is estimated to be down 2% to 26.5 MMT due to lower yields. European ...
Read More The post Global Mandarin Production Declining appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Global orange production for 2022-23 is estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) at 47.8 million metric tons (MMT), 5% less than the prior year. Lower production in the European Union, Turkey and the United States is only partially offset by a larger crop in Egypt. U.S. production is estimated to drop by over a ...
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South African grapefruit production is forecast at 420,000 metric tons (MT) for 2022–23 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). That’s up slightly from prior-year grapefruit production of 416,000 MT. ACREAGE AND VARIETIESSouth Africa’s planted grapefruit area has grown by 18% over the past seven years, mainly driven by a surge in global demand, especially in ...
Read More The post South African Grapefruit Production Up appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Turkey is forecast to produce 1.32 million metric tons (MMT) of fresh oranges in 2022–23, down from 1.75 MMT in 2021–22. The decrease is due to freezing weather conditions during the orange-blossoming period in March 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) issued the updated forecast. The yield decrease in 2022–23 was heaviest in the Washington ...
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Tangerine/mandarin production in South Africa is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) to grow by 6% in 2022–23 to 680,000 metric tons (MT). There is a growing trend to establish new orchards under netting, which has improved water efficiency, yields and the overall quality of mandarins in South Africa. INCREASED PLANTINGSThe South African tangerine/mandarin ...
Read More The post South Africa Mandarin Production to Grow appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The total Brazilian orange crop for 2023–24 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kilogram boxes, a decrease of 1.1% from last season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently. The commercial area of the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 309 million boxes, a decrease of 1.55% from last ...
Read More The post Outlook for Brazil’s 2023–24 Orange Crop appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Turkish production of mandarins/tangerines is forecast at 1.86 million metric tons (MMT) for 2022–23, up slightly from the previous season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. Prior season (2021–22) mandarin production was 1.81 MMT. Mandarins were less impacted than other Turkish citrus by freezing temperatures during blossoming in March 2022, USDA FAS stated. Also, the ...
Read More The post Turkish Tangerines Rebound From Natural Disasters appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Fresh lemon/lime production in South Africa is forecast to shrink by 13% to 653,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported recently. In the prior season, the country produced a record 748,000 MT. The yield reduction this year is due to hailstorm damage in the Eastern Cape in November 2022. PLANTINGS ...
Read More The post South Africa Lemon/Lime Production to Shrink appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently forecast Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production in 2022–23 at 550,000 metric tons (MT), slightly lower than the previous year’s 570,000 MT. The decrease can be attributed to removal of low-yield trees, a delayed season, lower harvests of early-season varieties and a warmer than expected fall season. ACREAGEPeru’s mandarin/tangerine planted area is ...
Read More The post Peruvian Mandarin/Tangerine Production to Dip appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Lemon and grapefruit crops will be smaller than the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) stated in a recent report on Turkey citrus. The country’s orange juice (OJ) production is forecast to stay the same. LEMONSTurkey’s 2022–23 fresh lemon production forecast is 1.32 million metric tons (MMT), 11% lower than the previous season. The ...
Read More The post Turkey Citrus Forecasts See Some Declines appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Fresh orange production in South Africa is forecast at 1.63 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, compared to 1.61 MMT in 2021–22, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. The Western Cape province was affected by damage from hailstorms and strong winds, which may hamper production. Additionally, the Eastern Cape province received heavy rains, which could ...
Read More The post South Africa Orange Production Steady appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
European Union (EU) mandarin production in 2022–23 is forecast at 3 million metric tons (MMT), down almost 4% from the prior season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently reported. The shortage in EU mandarin production this year is mainly the result of anticipated decreases in Spain, EU’s major mandarin producer. Spain and Italy are respectively ...
Read More The post European Mandarin Production Declines appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The final U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) citrus forecast for the 2022–23 season, issued July 12, has several changes from the June forecast. FLORIDAFlorida’s all-orange forecast rose approximately 1% to 15.85 million boxes, up 100,000 boxes from June. The full increase is in the Valencia orange forecast, which rose to 9.7 million boxes. Florida’s all-grapefruit ...
Read More The post Final U.S. Citrus Forecast Has Several Changes appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Production of all citrus varieties in Morocco will decline in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) confirmed in a recent report. The report includes an update on the area planted for each variety and the expected volume of exports. Morocco does not import fresh citrus. TANGERINES/MANDARINS Fresh tangerine/mandarin production is projected at 927,000 metric tons ...
Read More The post Less Citrus Production in Morocco appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
European Union (EU) orange production is projected at nearly 5.8 million metric tons (MMT) for 2022–23, almost a 13% reduction from the previous season, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) report. Reductions are expected mainly in Spain and slightly in Italy and Portugal. SPAINOrange production in Spain is projected to decline by 22.8%, amounting ...
Read More The post European Orange Production to Decline appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
A new report on European Union (EU) citrus by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) includes a broad overview of the continent’s industry. Production expectations, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, acreage and trade are addressed in the report. PRODUCTION REDUCTIONTotal European Union (EU) citrus production in 2022–23 is projected to total 10.4 million metric ...
Read More The post European Union Citrus Report on Production, War Impact appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
In 2022–23, mandarin production in Chile is projected to increase by 26.5% and total 215,000 metric tons (MT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported on June 2. The increase is driven by a rise in yields and new orchards reaching production. Mandarins include clementines and tangerines. Yields this year recovered as rainfall reached more normal ...
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Lemon production in Chile is expected to increase by 26.4% in 2022–23 and total 172,000 metric tons (MT), the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) reported. Favorable climatic conditions and an increase in water supplies in the Coquimbo region pushed up lemon yields, and thus overall production. ACREAGEIn 2022–23, total area planted in Chile reached 8,080 hectares, ...
Read More The post Greater Lemon Production in Chile appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
With the 2022–23 season harvest virtually completed for all varieties, the June citrus forecast for Florida had several slight changes. The Florida orange and grapefruit forecasts each climbed 1% from May, while the tangerines/tangelos forecast dropped 2%. Forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) were unchanged for Arizona, California and Texas. FLORIDA ORANGESFlorida’s all-orange ...
Read More The post Florida Citrus Forecast Sees Small Changes appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Orange production in Chile will increase by 6.1% and total 174,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) estimated recently. Yields are up due to increased rainfall and no damage from frost. ACREAGEIn 2022–23, orange area planted in Chile totaled 6,362 hectares, unchanged from 2021–22. The total orange area planted has remained ...
Read More The post Chilean Orange Production to Climb appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The latest estimate for the South Africa citrus crop in 2023 is 165.6 million cartons. This is 800,000 more cartons than last year, The Vanguard International Group recently reported.
Vanguard stated that two commodities — lemons and mandarins — have emerged over the past few years. Lemons have witnessed a significant surge in plantings. There are approximately 8,000 hectares of lemon trees that are less than six years old. Of those, approximately 1,750 hectares are four years old or younger. There are approximately 13,500 hectares of mandarin orchards that are six years or younger, with around 7,300 hectares of that being four years or younger.
All indications point to slightly larger fruit size this season.
Lemon packing began in week 4 of the season, and over 9 million cartons of lemons have already left South Africa since then. The Eastern Cape started packing large volumes of lemons. Supply is good at this stage.
As of week 18, grapefruit packing is already 30% complete with 3.7 million cartons packed so far. The peak sizes for grapefruits range from 40 to 45 and 50.
The packing process for navels has just begun. The higher-than-normal rains in Limpopo and Mpumalanga have caused a slowdown in the packing of these oranges. Nevertheless, volume is expected to pick up quickly.
The first Turkey Valencias are set to start in week 22, with the bulk volume becoming available from week 24 on. The size of Valencias is expected to be ideal for markets seeking larger fruit. The earliest start for Midnights is projected to be around week 26, with bulk volumes anticipated in week 28.
Over the next five years, Vanguard anticipates significant growth in soft citrus and lemon production. Valencia oranges are expected to continue with normal growth, but there is an anticipated decline in grapefruit and more traditional navel oranges.
Source: The Vanguard International Group
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The May Florida citrus crop forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) saw some ups and downs.
The forecast for Florida grapefruit is up 6% since last month.FLORIDA ORANGES
The Florida 2022–23 all-orange forecast declined 3%, from 16.1 million boxes in the April forecast to 15.65 million boxes in May. If the forecast is realized, this will be 62% less orange production than last season.
Florida non-Valencia orange production rose 1% to 6.15 million boxes, while the state’s Valencia production fell 5% to 9.5 million boxes. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia portion of the forecast, is 4% of the non-Valencia total. A row count survey conducted in late April indicated that 98% of the Valencia rows are harvested.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT
The news was a bit better for Florida’s all-grapefruit crop. It rose 6% since April to a total of 1.8 million boxes. Red grapefruit inched up from 1.52 million boxes to 1.56 million boxes. White grapefruit saw a nice bump from 180,000 boxes to 240,000 boxes.
UNCHANGED CROPSThe forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos remained at 500,000 boxes.
All USDA NASS May citrus forecasts for Arizona, California and Texas were unchanged from April.
See the full citrus forecast report here.
Hear the Florida citrus crop forecast:
Hear the complete U.S. citrus crop forecast:
The next update to the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast will be on June 9 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: USDA NASS
The post Adjustments to the Florida Citrus Crop Forecast appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The 2023–2024 initial orange forecast for Brazil’s citrus belt is 309.34 million boxes. The forecast was announced on May 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The projected volume is 1.55% less than the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes.
Fundecitrus reported that weather conditions are positive for the 2023–24 crop with rains being 50% above the historical average. However, Asian citrus psyllid populations and citrus greening incidence continue to increase in Brazil.
VARIETY PROJECTIONS
The orange production forecast for 2023–2024 includes:
- 56.11 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi
- 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada
- 98.95 million boxes of Pera Rio
- 105.23 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha
- 30.83 million boxes of Natal
FRUIT YIELD AND SIZEAverage yield this crop season is estimated at 918 boxes per hectare, up slightly from last season’s 912 boxes per hectare. Average fruit per tree is down 4.9% this season, dropping from 668 in 2022–23 to 635 in 2023–24.
The average fruit weight is expected to be 165 grams, up from last season’s 159 grams. It is estimated that it will take 247 fruits to fill a 90-pound box.
BLOOM AND FRUIT DROP
Bloom projections for the 2023-24 season are as follows:
- First bloom: 36%
- Second bloom: 46%
- Third bloom: 16%
- Fourth bloom: 2%
An earlier and faster crop is expected this season, which favors fruit drop. The estimated fruit drop rate is 21%, similar to last season. The fruit drop rate is due in large part to the increase in citrus greening.
BEARING TREES
According to the Fundecitrus report, bearing trees total 169.29 million and occupy an area of 337,091 hectares in this crop season. These figures represent a decrease in the production area of 2.12%, evidencing the effect of the higher planting density in the last year.
Source: Fundecitrus
The post Brazil’s Initial Orange Forecast for 2023–24 appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) released its latest citrus crop forecast on April 11. Florida’s grapefruit crop forecast for 2022–23 rose 6%. Projected production for the state’s other citrus varieties was unchanged.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT
The all-grapefruit forecast for Florida is now 1.7 million boxes, up from 1.6 million boxes in March. Florida’s red grapefruit forecast rose from 1.44 million boxes in March to 1.52 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast climbed from 160,000 boxes to 180,000 boxes. A row count survey conducted March 29–30 indicated 95% of red and white grapefruit rows are harvested.
OTHER FLORIDA VARIETIES
The unchanged forecasts for other Florida varieties are 16.1 million boxes of oranges (10 million Valencia and 6.1 million non-Valencia) and 500,000 boxes of tangerines and tangelos.
The final Valencia orange fruit droppage was measured at a staggering 70%, the highest in a series dating back to the 1960–61 season. Sixty-one percent of the Valencia crop was harvested as of the March 29–30 row count. The non-Valencia orange crop is completely harvested.
OTHER STATES
California’s all-orange forecast was reduced by 1 million boxes, to 45.1 million boxes. The entire reduction was in the non-Valencia crop.
California grapefruit dropped 100,000 boxes to 4.2 million boxes. California tangerines and tangelos dipped 1 million boxes to 21 million boxes. The state’s lemon forecast rose by 1 million boxes to 23 million boxes.
The Texas all-orange forecast dipped from 1.15 million boxes to 1.05 million boxes. The non-Valencia crop decreased by 200,000 boxes. The Valencia crop climbed 100,000 boxes.
Texas grapefruit climbed 200,000 boxes to 2.4 million boxes.
Arizona’s lemon crop forecast climbed 200,000 boxes to 1.7 million boxes.
See the full citrus forecast report here.
Listen to the Florida forecast:
Florida forecastListen to the full U.S. forecast:
U.S. forecastThe next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on May 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. EDT on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: USDA NASS
The post Changes to U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The final 2022–23 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 314.21 million 90-pound boxes. While the crop declined 0.6% from the February forecast, it is much larger than the country’s 2021–22 crop.
Photo by Pauline Bernfeld on UnsplashThe Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties declined by 1.1% since February to 105.01 million boxes, and the Natal variety declined 2.2% to 38.12 million boxes.
The forecast for other orange varieties was unchanged from February, with Hamlin, Westin and Rubi at 58.04 million boxes, other early season varieties at 16.69 million boxes and Pera Rio at 96.35 million boxes.
The forecast was published April 10 by Fundecitrus and was performed in cooperation with its partners.
The production of the 2022–23 crop exceeded the 2021–22 season by 19.49%. The 2021–22 crop was severely impacted by a combination of drought and frost, resulting in a drastic reduction in harvest. The production of the current crop is equal to the historical average.
FRUIT WEIGHT UPFor all orange varieties in the 2022–23 season, the average weight was 159 grams per fruit, approximately 5.61 ounces. That’s slightly above the historical average
of the last five harvests, which is 156 grams, roughly 5.50 ounces. The oranges of the early-season cultivars
showed a smaller size than expected, while the mid-season and late-season varieties showed a larger size than
expected.
FRUIT DROP INCREASESRains contributed to a significant increase in premature
fruit drop this season. This was particularly noticeable in late-season varieties. The fruits of these cultivars remained on the plants longer, which triggered the
increase in the drop rate. The drop rate reached the highest levels ever recorded for the Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal varieties since research began in 2015–2016.
Overall, the average fruit drop rate in the citrus belt increased to 21.30%, accumulated since the beginning of
the harvest. Hamlin, Westin and Ruby’s drop rate was 10.4%. The other early-season varieties showed a slightly higher drop rate of 14.2%. Pera Rio had a fruit drop rate of 20.3%, while the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties had a higher fruit drop rate of 27.5%. The Natal variety had the highest fruit drop rate at 28%.
In the last three years, the fruit drop rate has remained above 21%, which represents an increase compared to
previous years, when this rate persisted around 17%.
See the full forecast here.
The first forecast for Brazil’s 2023–24 season will be released on May 10.
Source: Fundecitrus
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The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) recently reported additional information about the state’s 2022–23 Valencia orange forecast of 16.2 million 40-pound cartons. This figure is equal to the 8.1 million 80-pound boxes forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on March 8. The CDFA forecast, also issued on March 8, is below the prior season production of 17.2 million cartons or 8.6 million boxes.
CDFA stated that the season experienced scattered precipitation in some areas, which caused a rainy start to the growing season. Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 616, a 13.9% increase from the previous year and 12.2% above the five-year average of 549. The average March 1 diameter was 2.39 inches, down 2.8% from the previous year and 5.1% below the five-year average of 2.52.
California has 25,000 bearing acres of Valencia oranges this season, down from 26,000 last season. The state had 40,000 bearing acres of Valencias in 2011–12, when production was 25 million cartons. Acreage has been on the decline ever since.
The average number of Valencia orange trees per acre is 124. Trees per acre have been at that level since the 2016–17 season.
The forecast was based on the results of the 2022–23 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from Jan. 9 to Feb. 28. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per carton were used in the statistical models estimating production. For the survey, a sample of 375 Valencia orange groves were randomly selected, with 340 of those groves utilized in the survey.
See the full California Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Report from CDFA here.
Source: CDFA
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The Florida 2022–23 all-orange forecast inched up 1% in March to 16.1 million boxes while the grapefruit forecast rose 7% to 1.6 million boxes. The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos was unchanged at 500,000 boxes.
The entire rise of 100,000 boxes in the orange forecast was in the non-Valencia crop, which is almost completely harvested. The non-Valencia forecast is now for 6.1 million boxes.
Florida’s Valencia orange forecast remains at 10 million boxes. The late-season Valencia harvest is still in its early stages. Current Valencia fruit size is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Fruit droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum at harvest. References to minimum and maximum refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the Hurricane Irma-impacted 2017–18 season. Fruit droppage has increased drastically since the finding of HLB disease in Florida in 2005.
Florida’s 1.6 million box all-grapefruit forecast is 100,000 boxes higher than the February projection. The red grapefruit forecast climbed from 1.32 million boxes in February to 1.44 million boxes in March. The white grapefruit forecast dropped from 180,000 boxes to 160,000 boxes. By late February, 72% of Florida grapefruit rows had been harvested.
The USDA NASS citrus forecasts for Arizona, California and Texas were unchanged from February.
See the full citrus forecast report here.
The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on April 11 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: USDA NASS
The post Florida Forecast Sees Small Gains appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The European Union’s (EU) production of tangerines/mandarins, lemons and grapefruit are all projected to decline in 2022–23 compared to the prior season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) made the EU citrus projections.
TANGERINES/MANDARINSEU tangerine and mandarin production in 2022–23 is forecast at 3.01 million metric tons (MMT), down from 3.15 MMT the previous season. Good output levels obtained in Italy and Greece did not offset production decreases in Spain.
EU is a net importer of mandarins. In 2022–23, tangerine and mandarin imports by the EU are forecast at 410,000 metric tons (MT), down from 432,000 MT the prior year. In 2021–22, South Africa, Morocco, Turkey, Israel and Peru were the leading suppliers to the EU market.
Exports of mandarins from the EU are projected to dip to 300,000 MT in 2022–23 from 320,000 MT the prior year. The EU’s main export market destinations for mandarins included the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine, Belarus, Norway and Canada.
LEMONSIn 2022–23, EU lemon production is forecast at just over 1.5 million MT, down from 1.6 million MT in 2021–22. The decline is driven by a production decline projected for Spain, despite improved output in Italy and Greece.
Spain and Italy are the first and second largest EU lemon producers, accounting for nearly 65% and 30% percent of total lemon production, respectively.
EU lemon imports are projected to decline to 560,000 MT in 2022–23, down from 629,000 MT the prior year. South Africa, Turkey, Argentina and Brazil were the leading suppliers to the EU market in 2021–22.
EU lemon exports in 2022–23 are projected at 140,000 MT, only slightly below the 142,000 MT exported in 2022–21. In 2021–22, the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway remained the main destination for EU lemons, which are shipped primarily from Spain.
GRAPEFRUITEU grapefruit production is forecast to decline to 109,000 MT in 2022–23 from 111,000 MT the prior year.
Spain is the EU’s leading grapefruit producer and accounts for nearly 75% of the bloc’s production.
EU imports of grapefruit in 2022–23 are projected at 215,000 MT, down from 223,000 MT the prior year. The EU is a net importer of fresh grapefruit. Despite the suspension of
additional EU tariffs since spring 2021, U.S. grapefruit exports to the EU further contracted in 2021–22 as Florida’s grapefruit production continued shrinking. In 2021–22, the largest suppliers to the EU included South Africa, Turkey, China, Israel, United States and Mexico.
EU grapefruit exports are expected to decline to 15,000 MT in 2022–23 compared to 17,000 MT the prior year. In 2021–22, main destinations of EU grapefruit included the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Belarus and Ukraine.
See the full USDA FAS report on EU citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Chinese production of tangerines/mandarins and grapefruit/pomelos in 2022–23 are both forecast to dip slightly from prior year levels. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
Production of tangerines and mandarins is forecast at 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, compared to 27 MMT the prior year. The forecast reflects reduced production volumes from unfavorable weather, as well as reduced planting areas due to the HLB that is spreading across Guangxi province.
Chinese imports of tangerines and mandarins in 2022–23 are forecast at 60,000 metric tons (MT), up slightly from 2021–22. South Africa, Australia, Peru and Chile are the main suppliers, with South Africa accounting for more than half of China’s mandarin imports.
Exports of tangerines and mandarins in 2022–23 are forecast at 570,000 MT, up slightly from 566,000 MT the prior year.
GRAPEFRUIT AND POMELOS
China’s 2022–23 grapefruit/pomelo production is forecast at 5.15 MMT, slightly down from the previous year.
Imports of grapefruit (including pomelo) in 2022–23 are forecast at 120,000 MT, up from 111,000 MT the prior year due to continual demand for fresh, imported varieties from Thailand. Traders also expect China to increase imports from South Africa. South Africa continues to be the largest grapefruit supplier to the Chinese market, representing over 60% of China’s total imports. Other suppliers include Thailand, Israel and Egypt.
Grapefruit and pomelo exports in 2022–23 are forecast at 115,000 MT, slightly below the 117,000 MT exported in 2021–22. Industry insiders mentioned that the energy crisis in Europe and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war hinders trade between China and European countries. Netherlands, Ukraine, Romania and Russia used to be major importers of Chinese pomelos in Europe.
Orange production in China is expected to increase, while orange juice production is forecast to decline; read more.
Source: USDA FAS
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Fresh mandarin/tangerine, lemon and grapefruit production in Turkey is forecast to decline in 2022–23 compared to the prior year due to freezing temperatures in March 2022. Orange juice (OJ) production will likely be unchanged, while orange production will significantly decline. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by Vanessa Loring on Pexels.comTANGERINES/MANDARINS
Overall tangerine production is forecast to decrease 18% to 1.48 million metric tons (MMT).
Tangerines are the most produced citrus fruit in Turkey, with 84% of tangerines being produced in the Mediterranean region. Satsuma is the dominant variety in this region.
According to growers, tangerines are the most expensive fruit to
produce, and producer costs have increased 140% in 2022 compared to the previous year.
The tangerine export forecast for 2022–23 is unchanged at 990,000 MMT due to lower yields, the war in Russia, the recession in Europe and turmoil in other neighboring countries.
LEMONSLemon production is expected to decrease 20% to 1.2 MMT. Although yields are expected to be lower than the previous season, growers do not expect any quality concerns or disease/pest issues.
More than half of the total lemon production in Turkey is produced in Mersin province.
Lemon exports are expected to decrease 13% to 600,000 metric tons (MT). Turkey generally exports half of its total lemon production.
Turkey imports a very low quantity of lemons, mostly from Northern Cyprus.
GRAPEFRUIT
Grapefruit production is expected to decrease 25% to 186,000 MT.
Grapefruit orchard areas have been decreasing year over year. Most of the grapefruit in Turkey are produced in Adana province.
In 2022–23, grapefruit exports are expected to be 15% lower than the prior year, at 126,000 MT. The main export destinations are Russia, Poland and Romania.
See the full USDA FAS report on citrus in Turkey here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Brazil will continue to lead the world in orange and orange juice production in 2022–23. China continues to produce the most tangerines/mandarins and grapefruit. Mexico will remain the largest producer of lemons and limes.
Global production of all varieties is forecast to be lower in 2022–23 than in the prior year. These projections were made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
ORANGES
Global orange production for 2022–23 is estimated 5% lower than the prior year at 47.5 million metric tons (MMT). Lower production in the European Union and the United States is only partially offset by a larger crop in Egypt. Leading producers are expected to be:
- Brazil, 16.5 MMT
- China, 7.6 MMT
- European Union, 5.9 MMT
- Mexico, 4.2 MMT
- Egypt, 3.6 MMT
- United States, 2.5 MMT
ORANGE JUICE
Global orange juice production is forecast 7% lower to 1.6 MMT. Production is down due to reduced fruit available for processing in Brazil, the European Union, Mexico and the United States. Leading producers are projected to be:
- Brazil, 1.1 MMT
- Mexico, 176,000 metric tons (MT)
- United States, 125,000 MT
- European Union, 55,000 MT
- South Africa, 33,000 MT
- China, 18,000 MT
TANGERINES/MANDARINS
Global production is forecast down 1.2 MMT to 36.6 MMT. Declines are expected in China, Morocco and Turkey due to unfavorable weather. Leading producers are forecast to be:
- China, 26.5 MMT
- European Union, 3 MMT
- Turkey, 1.5 MMT
- Japan, 921,000 MT
- Morocco, 900,000 MT
- United States, 820,000 MT
LEMONS/LIMES
Global production is forecast down 7% to 9.3 MMT with lower production in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey due to unfavorable weather and higher input costs. Leading producers are expected to be:
GRAPEFRUIT
Global production is estimated down 2% to 6.8 MMT due to unfavorable weather and reduced production in China, Mexico, Turkey and the United States. Leading producers are projected to be:
- China, 5.2 MMT
- Mexico, 420,000 MT
- South Africa, 385,000 MT
- United States, 294,000 MT
- Israel, 190,000 MT
- Turkey, 186,000 MT
See the full USDA/FAS report on world citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently issued forecasts for Japanese citrus production. Covered crops included the following:
Photo by Vicky Nguyen on UnsplashORANGESJapanese 2022–23 orange production is forecast at 5,600 metric tons (MT), a decline of 2% from the previous year. Orange harvested area is projected to fall by 1.2% to 395 hectares.
Orange imports are forecast at 80,000 MT in 2022–23, up 11.1% from the prior year. The United States will be the source of 35,000 MT of imports. In 2021–22, for the first time in recent years, the United States was not the top supplier by volume of the Japanese orange market. Australia supplied 51.4% of Japan’s imports, while the United States supplied 40.3%.
Japanese orange exports are expected to remain negligible at 14 MT in 2022–23, the same as the prior year.
GRAPEFRUIT/POMELOJapan’s domestic grapefruit production is negligible at approximately 35 MT on 2 hectares of planted area. However, Japan produces several pomelo or grapefruit-like citrus varieties (Japanese pomelo). USDA FAS estimates 2022–23 grapefruit
production, including Japanese pomelo, at 27,000 MT with planted area of 1,250 hectares.
Japan’s 2022–23 fresh grapefruit imports are expected to fall 11.2% from the prior year to 40,000 MT. In 2021–22, South Africa continued to be the leading grapefruit supplier to Japan at 23,147 MT. In 2021–22, Israel overtook the United States as the second largest grapefruit supplier as U.S. exports substantially declined.
Japan’s fresh grapefruit exports in 2021–22 were negligible (less than 1 MT) due to limited domestic production. No changes are expected to Japanese grapefruit exports in 2022–23.
LEMON/LIMEJapanese lemon/lime production is forecast to increase marginally in 2022–23 to 49,000 MT.
The area harvested for fresh lemons and lemon-like citrus is likewise expected to marginally increase by 0.2% to 4,435 hectares.
In 2021–22, Japan’s fresh lemon imports totaled 43,807 MT. The United States remains the leading lemon supplier to Japan at 50% of the 2021–22 import share, followed by Chile with 38%. Japan’s combined lemon and lime imports are expected to increase 8.7% in 2022–23.
Japan’s fresh lemon and lime exports are negligible (less than 1 MT).
Read more on mandarin/tangerine production in Japan.
See the full USDA FAS report on Japanese citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The third 2022–23 orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt amounted to 316.23 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. That is 0.7% higher than the projected crop in December 2022. This increase is mainly due to the production of Pera Rio orange. Pera Rio’s harvest is close to complete with higher-than-expected yield.
Photo by Evgeniy Konev on UnsplashThe forecast was published Feb. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators.
The heavy rains that occurred in the last two months could have further expanded the crop yield, since they contributed to the growth and weight increase of oranges. However, the highly frequent and intense rainfall also significantly intensified the premature fruit drop, offsetting the positive effect of weight gain. This was especially true for the late varieties, as most of these cultivars had not been harvested when the heavy rains started.
According to data from Somar/Climatempo, the average rainfall in the citrus belt accumulated from May 2022 to January 2023 was 880 millimeters, 10% lower than the climatological normal rate (1981–2010). Rainfall only exceeded the historical average in Triângulo Mineiro, which recorded 999 millimeters in the period (up 12%). In other regions, rainfall was below the normal rate.
The projection of the fruit drop rate increases from 20.1% to 20.8%, on average, all varieties considered. The drop rate for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi closed at 10.4%, For the other early varieties, the drop rate is 14.2%. The Pera Rio drop rate is forecast to go from 21.7% to 20.3%; and Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal from 24% to 26.5%.
In mid-January, the harvest reached approximately 88% of total production, with around 38 million boxes remaining to be harvested with most fruit from the third and fourth blooms. The harvesting of the early varieties Hamlin, Westin and Rubi has already been completed, together with the other early varieties Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada. The Pera Rio harvest reached 96% of completion; Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha, 80%; and Natal, 72%
See Brazil’s updated orange crop forecast here.
Source: Fundecitrus
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has forecast Mexico’s crops of lemons, limes and grapefruit will be lower in 2022–23 than in the prior year.
Photo by Tara WinsteadLEMON/LIMEThe lemon/lime production forecast for 2022–23 is 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 7% lower than the previous year.
Lemons and limes are the second largest category of citrus produced in Mexico, behind oranges. Nationally, lemons and limes account for 36% of total citrus production.
Principal producing states are Michoacán, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Tamaulipas. Veracruz and Michoacán are the largest producers, each with 27% percent of production. The Mexican area planted in lemons and limes in 2022–23 is 217,000 hectares.
Mexico’s lime production consists of three main varieties: Persian lime; Mexican or sour lime, also known as Key lime; and Italian lime.
Mexico’s 2022–23 exports of lemons/limes are forecast at 600,000 metric tons (MT). In 2021–2022, exports were estimated at 678,000 MT. The U.S. market takes more than 97% of total exports. The great majority of lime exports to the United States are the Persian and Italian varieties. In 2021, more than 80% of U.S. lime imports were from Mexico.
GRAPEFRUITMexico’s grapefruit production forecast for 2022–23 is 420,000 MT, down from 453,000 MT the prior year.
Grapefruit planted area for 2022–23 is 21,500 hectares, a small increase from the prior year.
Fresh grapefruit exports for 2022–23 are forecast at 20,000 MT, up from 17,000 MT the prior year. In 2021–22, more than 52% of Mexico’s total grapefruit exports went to the United States, followed by Japan with 23%, Netherlands with 16% and Canada with 5%.
Over the past five years, Mexico has imported fresh grapefruit only from the United States.
Along with the lower production of lemons, limes and grapefruit, Mexico’s orange crop is also expected to decline.
See the full USDA FAS report on Mexican citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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February’s federal citrus forecast trimmed another 2 million boxes from Florida’s projected orange crop, dropping expected 2022–23 production to 16 million boxes. That’s an 11% drop from what had already been projected to be a historically low orange crop. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). If the Florida orange forecast is realized, it will be 61% less than last season’s final production.
The Florida non-Valencia orange forecast dipped 1 million boxes from the January forecast, or 14%, to 6 million boxes. The Valencia forecast also dipped 1 million boxes, or 9%, to 10 million boxes.
By late January, more than 92% of the Florida non-Valencia orange crop had been harvested. Valencia oranges, which are still being harvested, have fruit size that is below the minimum and is projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current Valencia orange droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above maximum at harvest. References to “minimum” and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons.
Florida’s orange production has been tumbling ever since HLB was discovered in the state in 2005. It took an additional hit when Hurricane Ian hit the state’s citrus groves hard in late September, knocking much fruit to the ground and damaging trees.
Florida’s grapefruit and tangerine/mandarin forecasts were unchanged from January at 1.5 million boxes and 500,000 boxes, respectively.
Citrus production forecasts for Arizona, California and Texas were all unchanged from January.
See the full USDA NASS citrus forecast here.
Listen to the Florida forecast:
Listen to the forecast for all states:
The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on March 8 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: USDA NASS
The post Florida Orange Forecast Continues to Fall appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Due to a drought, lemon production in Argentina is forecast to decline to 1.77 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, down 130,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior year. The drought is expected to continue through the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2023 due in part to the third La Niña weather pattern in a row. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by LukasLemon production takes place principally in Tucuman, Salta and Jujuy, with some minor production in northeast Argentina. Over the past few years, lemon growers in northwest Argentina have expanded planted area. Tree removal and replanting have been increasing the plant-per-hectare ratio and improving production efficiency and yields. For 2022–23, lemon planted area is forecast at 52,000 hectares, up 1,000 hectares from the prior year.
Fresh lemons for processing are projected to decrease to 1.4 MMT, compared to 1.49 MMT in 2021–22, as a result of the production decrease.
Argentina’s fresh lemon exports are forecast at 235,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, down 25,000 MT from the previous season. Argentine lemon exports continue to face strong competition from Turkey and South Africa, which offer the European Union (EU) market higher-quality fresh fruit. During January–September 2022, the EU remained the largest export destination for Argentine fresh lemons with a 45% share, followed by the United States with a 21% share and Russia with an 18% share.
The fresh lemon export business continues to be profitable, although margins are lower compared to past seasons. The sector’s challenges are primarily due to a steep increase in production costs, high inflation rates and a weakened economy.
Lemon imports are expected to remain negligible in 2022–23 as Argentina is a net citrus producing and exporting country. During January–September 2021–22, Argentina imported
1.4 MT of fresh lemons, primarily from Brazil.
See the full USDA FAS citrus report for Argentina here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has forecast production of oranges, orange juice (OJ) and lemons/limes in Morocco to decline in 2022–23 compared to the previous season.
Photo by Karolina GrabowskaFRESH ORANGESOrange production in Morocco is expected to decline 35% to 750,000 metric tons (MT). The decline is attributed to unfavorable weather during the growing season, water shortages and a decrease in area harvested and yields.
Orange exports are expected to reach 80,000 MT in 2022–23, which is 38% lower than the prior year due to declining supplies. In 2021–22, exports went primarily to the European Union (EU), Russia, United States, Canada, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.
OJOJ production in 2022–23 is forecast to fall to 4,000 MT, nearly 27% lower than the prior season. The drop is based on lower orange supplies for processing.
OJ exports in 2022–23 are estimated to be about 2,500 MT, approximately 18% lower than the prior season. Morocco is expected to import 2,000 MT of OJ, an increase of 720 MT. Increased imports reflect the domestic production shortfall.
LEMONS/LIMESMoroccan lemon and lime production for 2022–23 is forecast at 35,000 MT, about 22% lower than the prior season’s production. Production declines are due to heat stress during the growing season.
Lemon and lime exports are projected at 5,000 MT, a 32% decrease from the prior year. Export markets in 2021–22 were Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, Canada, the EU, United Kingdom and the Middle East. Morocco shipped 26 MT of lemons and limes to the United States in 2020–21 but none in 2021–22.
Morocco’s mandarin and tangerine production is also significantly down; read more on those crops.
See the full USDA FAS report on Moroccan citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Production increases are forecast for Israeli mandarins/tangerines, grapefruit and lemons in 2022–23 compared to the prior year, while orange production is projected to decline sharply. The forecast is from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by Vanessa Loring on Pexels.comMANDARIN/TANGERINETotal mandarin and tangerine production in 2022–23 is forecast at 170,000 metric tons (MT), up from 159,000 MT the prior season. Israel grows more than 15 varieties of mandarins and tangerines, but growers focus mainly on the Or/Ori variety. Mandarins and tangerines represent 6,700 hectares, which is 42% of Israel’s total area planted in citrus.
GRAPEFRUIT
Grapefruit production is forecast to climb to 190,000 MT in 2022–23, up from 175,000 MT the prior season. In Israel, 4,000 hectares are planted in grapefruit. Farmers previously were decreasing their plantings of grapefruit due to low demand, but in the last few years there have been growing markets for the product in Asia, especially for red grapefruit.
LEMONSIsraeli lemon production in 2022–23 is forecast at 70,000 MT, 7,000 MT higher than the previous season. The planted area for lemons is 2,000 hectares.
ORANGES
Orange production in Israel is forecast at 60,000 MT, down 39% from 99,000 MT the prior season. At a planted area of 3,500 hectares, oranges account for 22% of the country’s total citrus area.
PROCESSINGThe Israeli citrus-processing industry is highly consolidated. Two large firms control the country’s local production. Farmers see the domestic processing industry as their last resort as prices paid by domestic processors are much lower than prices received from exports or from the fresh market.
TRADE
USDA FAS forecasts that Israel’s exports of citrus in 2022–23 will reach 175,000 MT, up 23% from the prior season. Two varieties made up 81% of citrus exports from Israel in 2021–22 — the Or mandarin variety and red grapefruit.
See the full USDA FAS report on Israeli citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in China is expected to increase in 2022–23 over the prior year, while its orange juice (OJ) production is forecast to decline. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDAFAS).
Photo by Lucas George WendtORANGESChina’s orange production in 2022–23 is forecast to reach 7.6 million metric tons (MMT), up from 7.55 MMT the prior year. The forecast is based on increased production in new planting areas (Hubei, Yunnan and Hunan), offsetting navel orange production decreases in Jiangxi province.
Orange imports in China have declined significantly since 2019 due to COVID restrictions. Between 2018–19 and 2021–22, orange imports dropped by nearly 50%. This dramatic drop was driven by multiple challenges from global transportation disruptions, China’s COVID measures, additional tariffs, and increasing costs for disinfection and testing.
Orange imports are expected to reach 230,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, up from 223,000 MT in 2021–22, as China begins removing some of the onerous transportation requirements related to COVID. Major orange exporters to China include South Africa, Egypt, Australia, United States and Spain. South Africa remained the leading orange supplier.
China’s 2022–23 orange exports are expected to reach 70,000 MT, up 6,000 MT from the previous year, as the flow of goods improves with the removal of COVID measures.
ORANGE JUICEUSDA FAS forecasts 2022–23 frozen orange juice production at 18,450 MT, a decline from 19,250 MT in 2021–22. The decline assumes a smaller volume of oranges will be delivered to processors as a result of increasing fresh orange demand. China largely relies on imports of frozen orange juice due to limited domestic production capacity and high operational costs.
Frozen orange juice imports for 2022–23 are forecast at 122,000 MT, up significantly due to lower domestic production amid increased demand. Imports were projected at 111,821 MT the prior year. Major suppliers include Brazil, Costa Rica, Israel and Spain. Brazil sent more than 70% of China’s total frozen orange juice imports.
Exports of Chinese frozen orange juice in 2022–23 are forecast at 1,700 MT, up slightly from the 2021–22 export volume of 1,631 MT. Demand in other Asian countries will continue to grow. Top export destinations will include Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Mongolia and Thailand.
See the full USDA FAS report on Chinese citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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European Union (EU) production of oranges and orange juice (OJ) are projected to decline in 2022–23 from the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) projected.
ORANGES
Orange production in the EU is forecast at 5.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, a 12% reduction from the prior season. The decline is mainly explained by production declines in Spain and Italy, which produce more than 50% and 25% of EU oranges, respectively. Orange production is the largest citrus category within the EU, accounting for over 55% of total citrus production.
Orange production in Spain is projected to decline by 20%. Italy’s production is forecast to decrease slightly. Greece’s orange production is expected to increase by approximately 4%, and Portugal’s production is expected to be down by 20% to 30%.
While farmers in Italy and Greece are shifting from orange production to more profitable permanent crops such as avocados or persimmons, area planted to orange groves in Spain continues to expand.
European exports of fresh oranges are anticipated to decline below the previous season’s level, to 390,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23. The EU is the world’s leader in fresh orange exports. Main destinations for EU oranges, primarily exported by Spain, include the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Canada, Norway, Serbia and Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia.
ORANGE JUICE
EU OJ production in 2022–23 is forecast at 54,963 MT, down from the 77,522 MT estimated for the prior year.
The volume of oranges devoted for processing depends on overall orange production levels and the quality and size of the fruit obtained. Given the anticipated significant decline in the EU’s orange production and the good prices that farmers receive for fresh oranges, the processing sector is expected to see its feedstock reduced.
EU OJ exports are projected at 82,000 MT in 2022–23, down from 111,765 MT the prior year. The United Kingdom is by far the largest destination for EU OJ.
See the full USDA FAS report on EU citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Tangerine/mandarin production in Japan for 2022–23 is forecast at 921,000 metric tons (MT), down 3.5% compared to the prior year. Tangerines/mandarins account for a majority of Japan’s citrus production, and the Unshu is expected to be the leading mandarin variety at 722,000 MT. Non-Unshu varieties are forecast at 199,000 MT. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Unshu is Japan’s leading mandarin variety. (Photo by P.C. Andersen)Since 1974, Japan’s planted area of Unshus, also known as satsuma mandarins, has been on a continuous decline. To prevent overproduction and a subsequent price drop, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) imposed Unshu production control in 1975. In response to subsequent supply shortages over several years, MAFF rescinded Unshu production control for the marketing year 2019–20.
During the Unshu production control period, some citrus farmers transitioned to the production of non-Unshu varieties, such as Natsu-Mikan (Citrus natsudaidai) and Iyokan (Citrus iyo), in the 1980s. Some transitioned to hybrid Unshu-orange varieties, such as Shiranui and Kiyomi, in the 1990s. Despite partially offsetting falling Unshu production, non-Unshu citrus production has also been declining since 1987, as the average farmer’s age increased.
The lack of successors in Japanese agriculture exacerbates production challenges, particularly for labor-intensive crops with a limited financial reward, such as mandarins. USDA FAS forecasts 2022–23 harvested area for tangerines/mandarins in Japan to fall to 49,300 hectares, a decline of 2.6% from the prior year.
USDA FAS forecasts Japan’s imports of tangerines/mandarins at 16,000 MT in 2022–23, an increase of 11.2% over the prior year. In 2021–22, the United States remained the leading supplier of fresh tangerines to Japan with 41% of import share,
followed by Australia and Peru. Japanese tangerine importers also noted a sudden influx of Turkish tangerines to Japan in 2021–22. They expect that the volume of imports from Turkey will continue to increase in 2022–23.
Following the government of Japan’s policy to increase agricultural exports, including of Unshu, USDA FAS forecasts Japan’s 2022–23 tangerine/mandarin exports will increase 8% to 1,800 MT, up from 1,667 MT in 2021–22.
See the full USDA FAS report on Japanese citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Mexican orange production in 2022–23 is forecast at 4.2 million metric tons (MMT), 9% lower than the previous year, due to prolonged drought in northeastern Mexico. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by Suzy HazelwoodMexico is estimated to be the fifth-largest orange producer in the world behind Brazil, China, India and the United States.
Orange planted area for 2022–23 is projected at 352,000 hectares, a marginal increase from the previous year.
National orange yield for 2022–23 is forecast at 13 metric tons per hectare, 7% lower than the previous year.
Since 2021, farmers in Mexico, including citrus growers, have struggled with the high price of fertilizers that escalated dramatically in 2022, due to the war in Ukraine. Citrus growers report 187% to 200% price increases in these inputs. To cope with the high cost of fertilizers, farmers are adjusting application rates.
FRESH ORANGE TRADEMexico’s fresh orange exports for 2022–23 are forecast at 75,000 metric tons (MT), nearly unchanged from the previous year. More than 97% of Mexico’s fresh orange exports go to the United States.
The fresh orange import forecast for 2022–23 is 35,000 MT. Mexico imports fresh oranges exclusively from the United States, primarily for fresh consumption at the border region. Fresh orange imports for 2021–22 were estimated at 20,000 MT.
FCOJ TRADEMexico is forecast to produce 176,000 MT of frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) in 2022–23, down from 215,000 MT the prior year. Mexico generally sends around 40% of its orange production into juice processing.
The overwhelming majority of Mexican FCOJ production is exported, and almost exclusively to the United States. However, the European Union, Canada, Japan and numerous countries throughout the Western Hemisphere also import smaller volumes of FCOJ from Mexico. FCOJ exports for 2022–23 are forecast at 171,000 MT, down from 210,000 MT the prior year.
FCOJ imports in 2022–23 are forecast at 2,000 MT. Mexico
imports a small amount of orange juice for supermarkets or small processors. Processors report that the majority of FCOJ imports are juice produced in Mexico that was shipped for bottling/packaging to the United States and reimported for sale in supermarkets.
See the full USDA FAS report on Mexican citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) has forecast Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 550,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, decreasing 4% from the previous year.
Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production area is estimated at 23,000 hectares. Harvest season runs from March to November.
The major mandarin/tangerine production areas are in the central semi-tropical coastal regions with good availability of water. Production is centered in Lima, Junin and Ica regions. There is also mandarin production in La Libertad, Arequipa, San Martin, Cusco and Puno.
SMALL AND LARGE GROWERS
Peru has more than 3,000 small producers with an average of 3 hectares; practically all their production stays in the domestic market. Their yields can range from 12 MT to 20 MT per hectare.
The country’s mandarin/tangerine production for export is predominantly grown on industrial-scale farms of 50 hectares or more. They use state-of-the-art drip irrigation systems that provide the precise amount of water and nutrients to maximize production. Yields on industrial scale farms are significantly higher than the smaller producers. Overall citrus yields in Peru average 24 MT per hectare.
VARIETIES GROWNVarieties are selected for high productivity and quality. Varieties in Peru include:
- Satsumas (Citrus unshiu): Clausellina, Okitsu, Owari
- Clementines (Citrus reticulata): Clementines, Clemenules
- Hybrids: Fortuna, Kara, Pixie, Nova
- Tangerines from Citrus reticulata and Citrus paradisi: Murcott, Ortanique, Tango
- Others: Dancy, Malváceo, Nadorcott, Rio de Oro
The market is dominated by seedless varieties.
EXPORT MARKETSPeruvian mandarin/tangerine exports are projected to decrease by 10% in 2022–23, to 200,000 MT. In 2021–22, Peru exported fresh mandarins/tangerines primarily to the United States (63%), United Kingdom (8%) and Netherlands (8%). Exports have shown consistent growth in recent years, nearly doubling from 112,000 MT in 2015–16.
Exports to the United States have grown considerably in the last six years. Over the last three seasons, exports experienced a considerable increase due to COVID’s positive effect on citrus demand. However, 2023–24 demand is expected to drop and stabilize.
See the USDA FAS full report on Peruvian citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in Turkey is forecast at 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, a decline of 20% from the prior year production of 1.75 MMT. The forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) blames the decline on freezing weather during the beginning of the orange blossoming period in March 2022.
The yield loss is expected for mostly the Washington variety, which accounts for 70% of total orange production.
Most oranges in Turkey are produced in Antalya province. Orange planted area in Turkey has decreased from 50,246 hectares in 2019–20 to 48,176 hectares in 2021–22.
FRUIT FLY CONCERNSThe Mediterranean fruit fly is a major concern in Turkey. It causes quality and quantity losses. In order to combat the fruit fly, the government has just started the distribution of pheromone traps for fruit flies to farmers free of charge through provincial offices and member associations.
EXPORTS
Orange exports in 2022–23 are expected to decrease 25% from the previous season to 291,000 metric tons (MT). In the beginning of 2022–23, exports to Russia, Ukraine and Romania declined but exports to Iraq and Serbia increased. Russia, Iraq and Ukraine are the main Turkish orange export markets.
In 2021–22, Turkey exported 389,000 MT of oranges, which was 76% more than in 2020–21. Citrus shipments to Russia and Ukraine were complicated because of the war in Ukraine.
According to exporters, varieties and fruit quality need to be improved, and new markets such as India, China, East Asia, South Korea and the United States need to be opened in order to make profits from exports.
IMPORTS
In 2022–23, orange imports are expected to stagnate at 43,000 MT, the same as 2021–22 and 2020–21. Almost all orange imports come from the Turkish Republic of Northern
Cyprus.
See the full USDA FAS report on citrus in Turkey here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in Argentina in 2022–23 is expected to fall to 800,000 metric tons (MT) compared to 830,000 MT the prior year. Tangerine production is projected to remain at 380,000 MT. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
La Niña-related drought is expected to have a negative effect on fruit production, especially in northeastern Argentina, where production depends entirely on rainfall.
Sweet citrus is grown in both the northwest (oranges) and northeast (oranges and tangerines) of Argentina.
The main orange varieties grown in northwest Argentina are Hamlin, Pineapple, Robertson and Navel. In the northeast, the main orange varieties are Navel, Salustiana and improved Valencia. The main tangerine varieties are Clementina, Clemenvilla, Ellendale, Malvasio, Montenegrina, Murcott and Ortanique.
PROCESSINGFor 2022–23, oranges for processing are forecast to remain at the same level of 2021–22, or 200,000 MT. Despite the projected decline in orange production, the volume of oranges headed for processing is projected to remain relatively high due to smaller projected exports and domestic consumption, and because orange processors have continued to pay higher prices.
Fresh tangerines for processing are expected to decrease by 15% from the previous year and are forecast at 60,000 MT.
TRADE
For 2022–23 fresh orange exports are forecast to decrease to 60,000 MT, from 63,000 MT the prior year, due to less production.
Fresh tangerine exports are projected to increase to 57,000 MT, from 33,000 MT the prior year.
As in the past few years, export volumes of both fruits continue to be well below historical levels due to lack of competitiveness of Argentine exporters in international markets.
Citrus imports are expected to remain negligible in 2022–23 because Argentina is a net citrus fruit producing and exporting country. During January–September of 2021–22, Argentina imported 2.4 MT of fresh oranges from Spain. No fresh
tangerine imports were registered during that time period.
See the full USDA/FAS citrus report for Argentina here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in Costa Rica is forecast to increase almost 2% in 2022–2023, to 305,000 metric tons (MT), according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). Denser plantings on larger farms have driven up yields, and HLB management programs mitigate the worst impacts of the virus. HLB was first identified in Costa Rica in 2011.
Photo by Laura Paraschivescu on UnsplashHarvest is mainly from January to May, with peak production in March and April.
Farmers have gradually increased the number of trees per hectare by using the “Flying Dragon” pattern. This innovation has increased tree density from 300-450 trees/hectare under traditional planting patterns to 800-900 trees/hectare with the Flying Dragon.
CROP AREA
The area planted in oranges is expected to remain flat in 2022–23, as the effects of HLB persist and major growers concentrate on improving current area through replanting and irrigation investments. Industry sources estimate area planted in 2022–23 at 21,000 hectares, including area planted on the Nicaraguan side of the border for processing in Costa Rica.
Commercial orange production is concentrated in the northern part of Alajuela province and in the northern part of Guanacaste province. Two companies, TicoFrut and Del Oro, control most of the production and practically all processing of oranges in the country.
TRADECosta Rica imported nearly 78,000 MT of fresh oranges from Nicaragua in 2021, up more than 10% from 2020. Imports from Nicaragua during 2022 reached 46,986 MT in January–March 2022, slightly lower than the same period in 2021. As a result of a cyber attack on Costa Rica’s Ministry of Finance in April 2022, trade statistics are not available for the second quarter of 2022.
Total orange juice [including both single-strength orange juice and frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ)] exports are expected to increase to 35,000 MT in 2022–23, due to stronger export sales to China. Total juice exports to all destinations amounted to 32,671 MT in 2021.
The United States continued to be Costa Rica’s leading destination for orange juice exports in 2022. Costa Rican orange juice enters the United States duty-free under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement.
Costa Rica exports most of its orange production as FCOJ. Single-strength fresh orange juice exports represent less than 25% of total export volume.
Read the full USDA/FAS report for Costa Rica here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Mandarin production in Chile is projected to increase by 39.4% in 2022–23, to 237 million tons (MT) compared to the prior year’s 170 MT. Production was low the previous year due to frost in the growing area. The mandarin projection includes clementines and tangerines. The forecast was part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service’s (USDA FAS) annual citrus report for Chile.
W. Murcott is one of Chile’s top mandarin varieties. (Photo courtesy of US Citrus)INCREASING ACREAGE
In 2021–22, the mandarin planted area in Chile totaled 11,194 hectares, a 32.6% increase over 2020–21. The planted area increased significantly in the past 10 years due to high profits for mandarins. Specifically, the W. Murcott variety became a viable alternative to replace other crops such as oranges, tables grapes and avocados. Chilean producers also are planting new mandarin varieties like Orogrande, Clemenules and Tango.
The Coquimbo region is the top mandarin production are in Chile, holding 5,309 hectares, or 47.4% of planted area. The O’Higgins and Valparaiso regions, in the central part of the country, hold 21.9% and 20.7% of planted area, respectively.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTSIn 2022–23, exports are projected to increase by 38.9%, totaling 200,000 MT, due to an increase in planted area and a return to normal yields.
Chile exports mandarins from April until December. However, Chilean producers export most mandarins between August and October, peaking in September.
The United States is the top export market for mandarins. In 2020–21, Chile exported 183,957 MT to the United States, which represented 94.9% of exports. Other markets for Chilean mandarins are Canada, the United Kingdom and Puerto Rico.
Chilean import volume of mandarins is low compared to exports. In 2020–21, Chile imported 588 MT of mandarins, and 51.8% of those came from the United States. The remaining 48.2% came from Peru.
Source: USDA FAS
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Florida citrus crops, already at historically low levels, were forecast Jan. 12 to fall even lower. The all-orange forecast fell 10% from the December projection. The grapefruit and tangerine/tangelo forecasts both tumbled 17%. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS).
If realized, the orange, grapefruit and tangerine/tangelo crops will be 56%, 55% and 33% less than last season, respectively.
ORANGESThe Florida all-orange forecast fell to 18 million boxes, down 2 million boxes from December. The non-Valencia forecast was unchanged at 7 million boxes. The Valencia forecast declined 2 million boxes, or 15%, to 11 million boxes.
Final non-Valencia fruit size is close to the minimum, and final droppage at 76% is above the maximum. Current Valencia fruit size is below the minimum and projected to be below the minimum at harvest. Current Valencia droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
GRAPEFRUITFlorida’s grapefruit forecast is for 1.5 million boxes, down 300,000 boxes from December. The entire reduction came in red grapefruit, now at 1.32 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast remains unchanged at 180,000 boxes.
Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be below average, and droppage is projected to be above the maximum. Projected white grapefruit size at harvest is above average, and droppage is projected to be above average.
TANGERINES/TANGELOSThe Florida tangerine/tangelo forecast of 500,000 boxes is a reduction of 100,000 from December.
OTHER STATESCalifornia all-orange production is forecast to decline to 46.1 million boxes, down 1 million boxes from December. The Texas orange forecast is unchanged at 1.15 million boxes.
Grapefruit projections for California and Texas both climbed by 200,000 boxes, to 4.3 million boxes and 2.2 million boxes, respectively.
Arizona’s lemon forecast soared to 1.5 million boxes, up 350,000 boxes from December. The California lemon forecast dipped to 22 million boxes, down 1 million from December.
California’s tangerine/tangelo forecast is up 2 million boxes for a total of 22 million boxes.
Read the full forecast report from USDA NASS here.
Listen to the crop forecast:
January citrus crop forecast for FloridaJanuary citrus crop forecast for United StatesThe next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on Feb. 8 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: USDA NASS
The post Florida Citrus Forecast Falls Further appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Orange juice (OJ) production in Australia in 2022–23 is forecast at 16,100 metric tons (MT), a decrease of 2% from the 2021–22 season’s 16,500 MT. In 2020–21, the country’s OJ production reached 17,400 MT. The 2022–23 forecast was made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
The planted area of juicing orange varieties, accounting for 36% of overall orange planted area, has declined by 3% from 2014 to 2021. The industry expects that as mature (40 years and older) Valencia trees’ productivity becomes unviable, they will be removed, and the overall Valencia area will decline at a more rapid rate than in recent years.
LOW EXPORT VOLUME
The forecast for OJ exports for 2022–23 is for a slight increase to 4,000 MT, up from the 2021–22 estimate of 3,500 MT. Exports are quite low at around 25% of production.
Exports over the last 10 years have ranged from as low as 1,500 MT to as high as 6,000 MT, and averaged a little under 4,000 MT.
In years when Australia has achieved the higher end of export volumes, New Zealand has been the major destination and has largely driven those higher volumes. However, so far in the 2021–22 season, Vietnam has become a significant destination for orange juice exports while exports to New Zealand have declined markedly.
IMPORTS INCH UP
Imports of OJ in 2022–23 are forecast at 19,000 MT, slightly higher than the 2021–22 estimate of 18,000 MT.
Brazil has for many years been the major source of Australia’s OJ imports and in recent years has accounted for more than 75% of overall imports. At less than 10%, Turkey is the second largest source of imports. This trend is not expected to vary greatly in the coming years.
See the full USDA FAS citrus report for Australia here.
Source: USDA FAS
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South African tangerine/mandarin (soft citrus) production is forecast to grow by 6% to 670,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23, up from 630,000 MT the prior year. The forecast is from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by SHVETS productionPLANTED AREAIn 2021–22, the area planted with tangerines/mandarins grew by an estimated 7% to 28,000 hectares from 26,151 hectares the prior year.
The area planted with tangerines/mandarins increased exponentially over the past seven years, driven by higher global demand for seedless soft citrus and relatively higher profit
margins compared to other citrus types. However, this aggressive growth in soft citrus area is expected to slow down in 2022–23.
The industry is concerned that demand for soft citrus is softening in key markets such as the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom due to inflationary pressures on consumers and an expected weakening in economic growth. In addition, accelerating farming input costs, higher shipping rates, infrastructure inefficiencies, ineffective port operations and deteriorating road networks are diminishing the profitability of soft citrus producers.
The predominant cultivar planted is the Nardocott, accounting for almost 20% of total area. Nardocott is followed by Arccit 9 (12%), Nules, (12%), Tango (11%), Nova (10 %), Leanri (9%) and Orri (8%).
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
South Africa’s exports of tangerines/mandarins are projected to grow by almost 8% in 2022–23 to reach a record level of 560,000 MT.
The EU and the United Kingdom account for 45% of total South African exports of soft citrus, followed by Russia (10%), the United States (10%) and United Arab Emirates (7%).
South Africa’s exports of soft citrus to the United States have grown exponentially over the past five years, from 11,180 MT in 2016–17 to 48,820 MT in 2021–22. This growth trend is expected to continue based on the expanding preference for easy peelers in the United States market. In 2021–22, the United States was South Africa’s fourth largest export market for tangerines/mandarins.
South Africa’s imports of tangerines/mandarins are expected to remain flat at 3,000 MT in 2022–23. South Africa only imports minimal volumes of citrus to satisfy off-season demand.
See the full USDA FAS annual report on South African citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in Chile is forecast to increase by 22% and total 200,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23. The forecast was part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service’s (USDA FAS) annual citrus report for Chile. The prior season’s production, hurt by frost, was expected to be 164,000 MT.
Photo by Engin AkyurtPRODUCTION REGIONS
The area planted in oranges in Chile in 2022–23 is estimated to reach 6,400 hectares, a 0.5% increase from the prior year. Orange planted area had reached 7,389 hectares in 2011–12 but gradually decreased as producers shifted to mandarins and lemons because of their higher profitability. However, citrus producers keep a part of their area covered with orange orchards because it allows them to pace the citrus harvest and maintain production and exports steadily throughout the season.
Orange production in Chile is concentrated in the central part of the country. The Metropolitana region is the top orange-producing region, holding 39.3% of the planted orange area. The O’Higgins region holds 31.3% of the area planted. The area planted in the Metropolitana and O’Higgins regions increased in the past three years by 8.5% and 13.5%, respectively. The Coquimbo and Valparaiso regions are also important orange-production centers in Chile, but plantings decreased in those regions due to a shift of planted area to mandarins and lemons.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
In 2022–23, exports are projected to improve and total 105,000 MT. Exports were expected to total 85,860 MT the prior year. The United States is Chile’s largest orange export market. Chile exports oranges to various other countries, such as Ecuador, the Dominican Republic and Canada.
In 2020–21, Chile imported 3,107 MT of oranges. The United States was the main supplier of oranges, with 96% market share totaling 2,983 metric tons. Chile imported the remaining 4% of oranges from Argentina and Peru.
Source: USDA FAS
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Reduced open-field Unshu mandarin harvest in the southern part of Jeju Island will drop total citrus production in Korea to 595,000 metric tons (MT) in 2022–23. This overall 2.9% reduction from last year is primarily due to a drier summer fruit-growing period and an alternating fruit-bearing cycle for Unshu production areas in the Seogwipo region. Those projections were made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
The reported citrus production for Korea consists totally of tangerines and mandarins. The country has no domestic production of oranges, orange juice or grapefruit. Domestic lemon production is considerably limited with no official data to report.
PLANTED AREA
Korea’s total citrus planted area is projected to decrease slightly to 19,930 hectares in 2022–23. Korea’s open-field planting area (73% of total planted area) continues to shrink due to an
aging farm population and increased property development around citrus farms. However, planted area for late-maturing tangerine varieties, produced mostly in greenhouses, is expected to increase steadily in the coming years. Trees produced in greenhouses generate two to three times more income than regular open-field production.
Korea’s late-maturing citrus planted area and production output are forecast to increase by 1% to 4,110 hectare and 94,000 MT, respectively. As consumer demand for high quality, late-
maturing citrus steadily increases, more growers will move away from regular Unshu mandarin production in open fields. They will choose to produce the higher priced, late-maturing citrus varieties.
The planted area for Hallabong (the major tangerine variety accounting for 37.7% of total late-maturing citrus in 2021) will decline gradually in the coming years. Conversely, planting of other varieties, such as Cheonhyehang and Redhayang, the second and the third most popular late-maturing citrus varieties,
is expected to increase steadily with increased consumer demand.
PROCESSING
In 2022–23, the Jeju citrus industry projects around 70,000 MT of fresh tangerines will be used for processing, mostly for tangerine concentrate production. This is up about 5.6% (3,720 MT) from the previous year due to the increased volume of non-marketable (smaller size) tangerines. Korea exported 1,226 MT of tangerine concentrate in 2021–22, about 44% more than the previous year on recovering demand in Japan.
Three Jeju-based citrus processors (Jeju Development Corporation, Ilhae and Lotte Chilsung Beverage) process 70,000 to 80,000 MT of tangerines annually.
EXPORT MARKETS
In 2022–23, Korea’s Unshu mandarin exports are forecast to decrease by 23% to around 5,000 MT, with lower exports to Russia. Traditionally, Russia is the top buyer for Korean tangerines. Those exports have fallen since February 2022 due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and a resulting decline in commercial vessel traffic.
Conversely, fresh tangerine exports to the Canadian and U.S. markets are forecast to increase gradually due to improved supply-chain logistics. Korea exports around 1,000 MT of fresh tangerines annually to Canada and the United States.
See the full USDA FAS report on Korean citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Orange production in Egypt is forecast at 3.6 million metric tons (MMT) in 2022–23, an increase of almost 20% compared to the prior season’s 3 MMT. The increase is attributed to optimal weather conditions and temperatures during flowering of the trees, which increased fruit set. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
PLANTED AREA
Egypt’s total planted area in oranges is 172,200 hectares, up 4.5% from the prior year. The increase in planted area is attributed to an increase in market demand, export potential and ongoing efforts to replace old orchards with newer trees in the Nile Valley. Most of the area planted with oranges is in desert reclaimed lands, which account for 75% of the total area. Plantations in the Nile Delta region account for 25% of planted area.
Growers prefer to cultivate oranges over other fruit types due to their high export demand and value as well as an established supply chain. That supply chain allows small growers (who would otherwise not have the capacity to export) to capitalize on export markets by selling their crops to larger commercial farms and exporters.
Oranges are the major citrus crop in Egypt, representing about 80% of the total cultivated citrus area. Primary cultivars are navels followed by Valencias.
TRADE
In 2022–23, orange exports are forecast to increase by approximately 30.7% to reach 1.7 MMT. The top 10 export destinations are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, Bangladesh, India, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, China, Malaysia and the Sultanate of Oman.
Orange exports represented 83.2% of total citrus exports in 2021–22. Other exported varieties included tangerines (10%), lemons (5.8%) and grapefruit (1%).
Orange juice exports in 2022 amounted to 2,869 metric tons (MT), compared to 1,897 MT in 2021.
See the full USDA/FAS report on Egyptian citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
The post Egypt Orange Production on the Rise appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
South Africa is forecast to produce 385,000 metric tons (MT) of grapefruit in 2022–23, up marginally from an expected 380,000 MT the prior year. The forecast is from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
Photo by PixabayAREA PLANTEDThe grapefruit planted area in South Africa grew by almost 25% over the past seven years. However, grapefruit area is expected to flatten in the coming years due to a softening in global demand along with rising input costs and higher shipping rates. USDA FAS forecasts marginal growth in grapefruit area to 9,250 hectares in 2022–23, up from 9,200 hectares the prior year.
The Limpopo province is the leading growing region for grapefruit in South Africa, accounting for 56% of the total area planted, followed by Mpumalanga (20%), KwaZulu-Natal (10%) and Northern Cape (6%) provinces. Star Ruby is the predominant cultivar planted, accounting for 88% of total area.
PROCESSING
Grapefruit delivered for processing is expected to decline by 4% in 2022–23, to 132,000 MT. Grapefruit is processed to juice and concentrate, the majority of which is exported to Europe.
The leftover pulp from commercial juice extraction is an important source of grapefruit oil that is used as a flavoring agent in many soft drinks. The inner peel is a source of pectin and citric acid, which are both used by the food industry to preserve fruits, jams and marmalades. Naringin is also extracted from grapefruit peel and gives tonic water its distinctive bitter flavor. Grapefruit peel oil is used in scented fragrances.
TRADE
Slight growth in grapefruit exports is expected in 2022–23, to 245,000 MT. Grapefruit exports the prior year were expected to be 235,000 MT.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected the normal trading patterns
of South Africa’s grapefruit. Immediately after the conflict started, South Africa’s citrus shipments to Russia ceased. However, grapefruit exports to Russia have now resumed at a reduced pace as exporters, concerned about payments and shipping delays, explored other
markets.
China was the leading market for South African grapefruit exports in 2021–22, accounting for 27% of total exports, followed by the Netherlands (26%), Japan (10%) and Russia (8%). Grapefruit exports to the United States have been growing exponentially over the past 10 years, from 275 MT in 2010–11 to 8,827 MT in 2020–21.
In 2020–21, South Africa exported a record 290,607 MT of grapefruit.
South Africa is not a major importer of grapefruit as the industry is mainly export-orientated. Imports are expected to stay flat at around 1,000 MT in 2022–23.
See the full USDA FAS annual report on South African citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Morocco’s tangerine and mandarin production for marketing year 2022–23 is expected to fall to 900,000 metric tons (MT), a 34% decline from the previous season’s 1.36 million metric tons. The forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) blames the decline on heat stress, water scarcity and increased input costs. Many orchards in the Berkane region suffered 40% to 50% losses during fruit setting, trade sources reported.
Water scarcity in Morocco had a significant impact on all citrus production. A crop year 2021–22 drought reportedly diminished snowpack, resulting in record low levels of irrigation water. Some farms were able to substitute groundwater, but many small farms couldn’t justify the expense of drilling new wells. The increasing cost of irrigation, combined with other production cost increases, led many growers to remove citrus orchards.
USDA FAS estimated that up to 6% of Moroccan citrus area was permanently removed in 2022, including an estimated 10% of tangerine and mandarin planted area. The area planted in mandarins and tangerines in September 2022 was 59,150 hectares, down from 65,750 hectares in 2021.
The Moroccan export season started in early November, two weeks later than average because fruit maturation was delayed. Tangerine and mandarin exports are expected to decline by 48% from the prior season to 325,000 MT.
Russia and the European Union (EU) remain Morocco’s top export markets; 182,346 MT of mandarins and tangerines were shipped to Russia and 180,699 MT were shipped to the EU in 2021–22. A record 109,254 MT were shipped to the United States, which was Morocco’s third largest export market. Canada, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East account for most of the rest of Morocco’s mandarin and tangerine exports.
Morocco did not import any mandarins and tangerines in 2021–22, nor is it expected to import any in 2022–23.
See the full USDA FAS report on Moroccan citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Australia fresh orange production of 505,000 metric tons (MT) is forecast for marketing year 2022–23. That’s a 6% decrease from 535,000 MT in 2021–22, when production was the highest since 2004–05. The forecast was reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service(USDA FAS).
PRODUCTION AREAS
The major orange production areas in Australia are in the southern temperate climate regions. These regions are known as:
- Riverina – located in southern New South Wales around Griffith and Leeton
- Murray Valley – located along the Murray River in the northwest of Victoria mostly between Mildura and Swan Hill
- Riverland – located along the Murray River in the northwest of South Australia
These three regions have a total orange production area of 15,321 hectares (ha) and represent 88% of the national area. Nationally, navel oranges have a total of 11,253 ha and Valencia oranges have 6,408 ha. The total national planted area of navel and Valencia oranges has increased by 15% from 15,307 ha in 2014 to 17,661 ha in 2021. During this period, the area of Valencia oranges has declined by 3%, and the area of navel oranges has increased by 29%.
The Riverina area is by far the largest producer of oranges. Around 54% of its total production area is Valencia, and it represents 65% of the national area of juicing oranges. There are other small orange-producing areas in northern New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
The harvest period in the three major production regions for navel oranges is typically from May to October. For Valencia oranges, it is usually from November to February. Some of the highest quality Valencia oranges are sold in the fresh market rather than being juiced.
Around 90% of the non-juicing orange varieties are navel oranges. The majority of the juicing varieties (86%) are Valencias.
TRADE
Fresh orange exports are forecast at 180,000 MT in 2022–23, a 35,000 MT increase over the 2021–22 estimate of 145,000 MT.
Orange imports are forecast at 15,000 MT in 2022–23, a 5,000 MT increase from an estimated 10,000 MT in 2021–22.
See the full USDA FAS citrus report for Australia here.
Source: USDA FAS
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The total Brazilian orange crop for marketing year 2022–23 is forecast at 405 million boxes (MB), a reduction of 10 MB compared to the previous season.
The commercial area in the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should account for 305 MB, a drop of 3% from the prior year. Production from other states is projected at 100 MB, similar to the prior year. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).
WEATHER CONDITIONS
Favorable weather conditions triggered a good first blossoming in August with excellent fruit setting in irrigated and non-irrigated citrus groves, mainly in the southern part of the citrus belt in São Paulo, USDA FAS reported.
A broader and excellent second blossoming occurred in October in most of the citrus belt. However, weather conditions (warm temperatures) were not adequate to sustain a robust fruit setting, damaging the production potential from the second blossoming.
YIELD AND PLANTED AREA
The yield for the 2022–23 orange crop in Brazil is projected at 1.78 boxes per tree, a drop of 2% from the prior season.
The area planted with oranges is projected at 614,100 hectares.
CITRUS GREENINGAccording to the Brazilian citrus research association Fundecitrus, 24.42% of the trees in the commercial area of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais are affected by greening. This figure shows an increase of 9% in the greening infection relative to the 2021 greening survey.
However, if the number of citrus trees eradicated in 2021 due to greening was included in the survey, greening infection would rise to 27.5%.
FRESH ORANGE TRADE
Total fresh orange exports for 2022–23 are projected at virtually zero, similar to fresh orange export estimates for 2021–22.
Total fresh orange imports for 2022–23 are projected to be stable at 0.2 MB. Egypt, Uruguay and Spain were the major
countries of origin for imported oranges in 2021–2022.
See the full USDA FAS report on Brazilian citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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Lemon production in Chile is forecast to bounce back to 200,000 metric tons in 2022–23 after decreasing by 30% in 2021–22 to 140,000 metric tons. The forecast was part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service’s (USDA FAS) annual citrus report for Chile.
Chile produces lemons in the summer months between December and March for the domestic market and during the winter months between June and September for the export market.
PLANTED AREAUSDA FAS estimates 2022–23 area planted in lemons at 8,500 hectares, a 5.7% increase over 2021–22, following the growth trend of the past three marketing years. The trend is explained by farmers moving toward more profitable crops, including citrus.
The lemon production area is in the northern and central part of the country, from the Coquimbo region to the O’Higgins region. Lemon area planted grew in all of Chile’s producing regions during the past
three marketing years. The Metropolitana region, in the central part of Chile, holds 41.1% of the lemon area, making it the top-producing region. Citrus became a viable alternative to other crops such as avocado because of its high price and low water requirement.
EXPORT MARKETS
In 2022–23, exports are projected to reach 100,000 MT assuming a normal production year. The lemon marketing year starts in April with the beginning of the harvest season. The bulk of exports takes place between June and September each year with a peak in July or August.
Exports were expected to decrease by 43.6% in 2021–22, to 60,000 MT, due to lower production caused by frost. Chile exported 101,996 MT of lemons to the world in 2020–21.
The United States is the top market for Chilean lemons. In 2020–21, Chile exported 65,682 MT to the United States, which represented 64.4% of export volume. Chile also exports lemons to Japan, China and South Korea.
Source: USDA FAS
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Lemon and grapefruit crops in Spain are both forecast to decrease 10% in the 2022–23 season compared to the 2021–22 season. The forecast was made by the Spanish Lemon and Grapefruit Interbranch Organisation (AILIMPO), which represents the economic interests of producers, cooperatives, exporters and industrialists of lemon and grapefruit in Spain. According to AILIMPO, increased yields from new plantations only partly offset the production losses caused by severe weather conditions.
LEMONAILIMPO’s lemon crop estimate is 1.09 million tons for the 2022–2023 season, compared to 1.21 million tons in 2021–22.
The expected decline is due to adverse weather conditions this year with significant rainfall events in March and April that affected flowering and fruit setting in many production areas. In addition, the summer has been particularly hot with increased temperatures and a lack of rain, resulting in delayed fruit development with smaller fruit sizes. The decrease will be particularly remarkable in the Verna variety, with a 22% drop. In the case of the Fino variety, a 5% drop is expected. The rate of harvesting and size development will determine the final crop estimate.
Spain will continue to be the world’s leading exporter of fresh lemons in 2022–2023, and the second largest processor of lemons in juice, essential oil and dehydrated peel worldwide.
GRAPEFRUIT
AILIMPO’s grapefruit production estimate for the 2022–2023 season points to an expected harvest in Spain of 76,000 tons, compared to 84,852 tons in 2021–22. In 2021–22, more than 62,000 tons were exported, primarily to the European Union, and 13,724 tons were processed; only 5,250 tons were consumed domestically.
AILIMPO prepared the forecast following the work protocol based on the aggregated information from surveys to producers, cooperatives, exporters and processing industries with field information from their control farms.
See the full lemon and grapefruit forecast for Spain here.
Source: AILIMPO
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The second 2022–23 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on Dec. 12 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, is 314.11 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each. This update indicates that the crop remains within expectations in relation to the projected forecast in September, with an increase of only 20 thousand boxes, which corresponds to 0.01%. The crop loss presented in the previous update of 0.9% in relation to the initial expectation is maintained, due to the volume of rainfall below the historical average.
According to data from Somar/Climatempo, the average rainfall in the citrus belt accumulated from May to November 2022 was 31% below normal. This is mainly associated with the influence of the La Niña phenomenon, which has remained at moderate intensity since May. In addition to lower volumes, rains fell in isolated spots and were uneven even among neighboring municipalities.
The effects of reduced rainfall were mitigated by the better distribution of rains over the seven months following harvest and lower temperatures in November. From the current month until the end of the crop season, rains are usually heavier, which contributes to the growth of oranges. On the other hand, during the summer, rains usually occur in the form of storms that accentuate the early fruit drop.
Considering all varieties in this new projection, 260 fruits are needed to compose a box, which means one less orange compared to the forecast in September. This amount of fruit is equivalent to 5.54-ounce oranges, which is similar to the average weight observed in Brazil’s last five orange crops.
The projected average fruit drop rate has increased from 19.8% to 20.1%.
In mid-November, harvest reached about 60% completion, but it is still at a slower pace, mainly due to the high concentration of fruit from the second bloom. Harvest of the early varieties Hamlin, Westin and Rubi has already reached completion.
See Brazil’s updated orange crop forecast here.
Source: Fundecitrus
The post Orange Crop Forecast for Brazil Remains Stable appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Fruit and tree loss from Hurricane Ian has drastically reduced Florida’s 2022-23 citrus crop.The first federal citrus crop forecast to take into account damage from September’s Hurricane Ian dropped Florida’s projected orange crop for 2022–23 to 20 million boxes. That’s 29% below the initial forecast of 28 million boxes in October, 51% less than last season’s final production of 41.05 million boxes and the lowest orange forecast in many decades.
Florida’s non-Valencia and Valencia orange forecasts were both reduced by 4 million boxes from October. The non-Valencia projection of 7 million boxes is a reduction of 36% from October. The Valencia forecast of 13 million boxes is a reduction of 24%.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service projected fruit drop for all oranges to be above the maximum. It projected non-Valencia orange fruit size to be below average at harvest and for Valencia orange fruit size to be below the minimum at harvest. References to average, minimum and maximum refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017–18 season that was affected by Hurricane Irma.
GRAPEFRUIT
Florida’s grapefruit forecast was trimmed 10% from October’s 2-million-box projection to 1.8 million boxes, 46% less than last season’s final production. Red grapefruit took the biggest hit, dropping from 1.8 million boxes to 1.62 million boxes. White grapefruit fell from 200,000 boxes to 180,000 boxes.
Fruit sizes for both red and white grapefruit are projected to be below average at harvest. Fruit drop is expected to be above the maximum for red grapefruit and above average for white grapefruit.
TANGERINES AND TANGELOS
The Florida tangerine and tangelo forecast dipped 14 percent from October’s 700,000-box projection to 600,000 boxes. That’s 20% less than last season’s utilization.
OTHER STATES UNCHANGEDThe production forecasts for other U.S. citrus-producing states were all unchanged from October. Those forecasts are:
- California oranges, 47.1 million boxes
- Texas oranges, 1.15 million boxes
- California grapefruit, 4.1 million boxes
- Texas grapefruit, 2 million boxes
- Arizona lemons, 1.15 million boxes
- California lemons, 23 million boxes
- California tangerines and tangelos, 20 million boxes
See the full forecast here.
The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on Jan. 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the USDA citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit of Florida and Florida Citrus Mutual.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
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The World Citrus Organisation’s (WCO) Northern Hemisphere citrus production forecast for the 2022–23 season is 25.958 million tons, a 13% decrease from the prior season. Production of every citrus variety in the Northern Hemisphere is forecast to dip by more than 11%. The forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and the United ...
Read MoreThe post Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Drops appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Some Florida citrus growers, but not all, were stunned by the low first crop forecast of the 2022–23 season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected the orange crop, which makes up more than 90% of all Florida citrus, at 28 million boxes. That’s 32% lower than last season. “The estimate was a shock to all of us,” said Hardee County ...
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The California Citrus Mutual (CCM) Marketing Committee —comprised of growers, shippers and marketers — anticipates the state’s 2022–23 navel orange and mandarin crops will be larger than last season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture also predicted larger California crops in its initial citrus forecast for the 2022–23 season. The navel orange crop will be approximately 10% over the previous season’s ...
Read More The post California Citrus Mutual Expects Increased Crops appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Florida Citrus Mutual’s crop estimate luncheon on Oct. 12 included the live announcement of the citrus crop forecast. But the focus of the event was on resources growers can tap into for assistance after Hurricane Ian. Speakers from various agencies shared information that can aid grower recovery efforts. “After the storm, we knew whatever number (for the citrus crop estimate) ...
Read More The post Citrus Crop Estimate Luncheon Pivots to Ian Recovery Resources appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Immediately following the lowest federal crop forecast for Florida citrus in many decades, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and Florida Department of Citrus Executive Director Shannon Shepp expressed optimism that the industry will strive to recover. Their statements referred to Hurricane Ian, which destroyed much fruit and damaged trees in major portions of the state’s citrus belt. The U.S. Department ...
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The numbers are expected to further decline, as the season’s initial forecast does not reflect Hurricane Ian damage. The annual gathering of Florida citrus industry members to hear the first crop forecast of the season looked a little different this year. While growers once again came together at Putnam Ranch in Zolfo Springs to listen to the U.S. Department of ...
Read More The post Low Citrus Crop Forecast for Florida Will Get Lower appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Florida Citrus Mutual (FCM) announced that an Oct. 12 event in Hardee County originally scheduled as the initial crop forecast luncheon will now be a post-Hurricane Ian information meeting. Lunch will still be provided. The meeting, open to all Florida citrus growers, will be held at 11:30 a.m. at the Putnam Ranch, 8290 Martin Lane, Zolfo Springs. FCM asks that ...
Read More The post Forecast Luncheon to Become Post-Hurricane Meeting appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
An orange forecast update for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is for 314.09 million boxes, a decrease of 2.86 million boxes or 0.9% from the original May forecast. The update was issued by Fundecitrus. All of the decrease is in the early-season orange varieties. The forecast for Hamlin, Westin and Rubi oranges is now 57.1 million ...
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) recently forecast Turkey’s 2021–22 fresh production of tangerines and mandarins at 1.81 million metric tons (MMT). That is 200,000 metric tons (MT) or 14% higher than the prior year. Turkey’s tangerines and other citrus are mainly grown in the country’s Mediterranean region. Increased mandarin production in the Mediterranean region is expected ...
Read More The post Turkey Mandarins: Greater Production, Less Profits appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Production of lemons and limes in South Africa will grow by 7% to a historic high of 670,000 metric tons (MT) in 2021–22, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) recently estimated. In 2020–21, South Africa produced 626,791 MT of the fruit. PLANTED AREAThe area planted with lemons and limes grew more than threefold over the past 10 ...
Read More The post South African Lemons and Limes to Reach Record Production appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Turkey is forecast to produce 249,000 metric tons (MT) of grapefruit in 2021–22, up 5% over the prior year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) reported. The increased production is due to better yields resulting from favorable weather conditions in the Mediterranean growing region, USDA/FAS stated in its semi-annual report on Turkish citrus. Improved yields have allowed ...
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The final U.S. citrus forecast of the 2021–22 season, released July 12, projected production changes for crops in Florida, California, Texas and Arizona compared to the June forecast. FLORIDAFlorida’s all-orange forecast rose 1%, to 40.95 million boxes, due to a slight increase in non-Valencia orange production and a 1% increase in expected Valencia orange production. The Florida grapefruit production forecast ...
Read More The post Final U.S. Citrus Forecast Has Several Changes appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
In Argentina, fresh orange production is forecast to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT) in 2021–22, up 120,000 MT from previous estimates. Fresh tangerine production is estimated to increase to 400,000 MT. The projections were in a semi-annual report on Argentina’s citrus industry from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS). PLANTED AREAOranges and tangerines are grown in ...
Read More The post Argentina: Orange and Tangerine Crops to Increase appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
There is a growing trend of South African mandarin growers aggressively establishing new orchards under netting, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) recently reported. The practice has improved water efficiency, yields and the overall quality of fruit, USDA/FAS says in its semi-annual South Africa citrus report. USDA/FAS says the production of tangerines/mandarins in South Africa is anticipated ...
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The sweltering heat being felt across the Southeast has done little to dampen the optimism shared by one citrus grower who believes this year’s crop is “very promising.” Kim Jones, who owns a citrus packing facility in Monticello, Florida, and is part-owner of a similar facility in Tifton, Georgia, discusses the state of this year’s crop in North Florida and ...
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Fresh lemon production in Turkey for 2021–22 was recently forecast at 1.33 million metric tons (MMT) in an update by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS). That’s an increase of about 22% over expected prior year production of 1.1 MMT. Growers are expanding the area of their lemon orchards in part because lemons are more profitable than ...
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Citrus production in the Southern Hemisphere this year is expected to increase 4.85% compared to 2021, to 24.8 million tons, according to a preliminary forecast by the World Citrus Organisation (WCO). The forecast is based on information provided by industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay. A total of 13.2 million tons of citrus ...
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By Ernie Neff The June 10 federal citrus crop forecast increased the expected Florida Valencia orange crop by 2% but dropped the state’s grapefruit and tangerines/tangelos production expectations. The forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The projected Valencia crop rose 500,000 boxes from the May forecast, to 22.5 million boxes. NASS declared ...
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The 2022–2023 initial orange crop forecast for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 316.95 million boxes. The forecast was published on May 26 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The projected volume is 20.53% higher than the previous crop, which totaled 262.97 million boxes. The orange production forecast includes:• 59.48 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi• ...
Read More The post Brazil’s First Orange Forecast for 2022–2023 appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The May 12 federal crop forecast increased Florida’s expected Valencia orange crop by 10% and reduced the state’s grapefruit projection by 6%. The Valencia crop was increased by 2 million boxes, to 22 million boxes, in the forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service. As of late April, 88% of the Valencia crop had been ...
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The Chilean citrus season began recently with the first shipment of clementines to the United States. Chile, the largest exporter of citrus in the southern hemisphere, will also supply mandarins, navel oranges and lemons to the United States. Promotional support will run from June to October. The forecast for citrus production in Chile is 45,000 tons of clementines, 120,000 tons ...
Read More The post Chile Ships First Citrus of Season to United States appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
Lemons are the only U.S. citrus commodity forecast this season to exceed last season’s production levels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service reported recently. At a projected 976,000 tons, lemon production is expected to be 10% higher than last season. Ninety-four percent of lemons commercially grown in the United States are from California. Despite the higher domestic production, ...
Read More The post U.S. Lemon, Grapefruit and Tangerine Outlook appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
According to Fundecitrus and its cooperators, the final 2021–2022 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is 262.97 million boxes. This final figure was 10.61% smaller than the initially expected volume published in May 2021, corresponding to a significant crop loss of 31.20 million boxes. This was an “on year” for the alternate-bearing, ...
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Florida’s Valencia orange crop forecast was cut by 13%, and the state’s grapefruit crop projection was trimmed by 8% in the April 8 forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service. The Valencia crop projection was reduced by 3 million boxes, to 20 million boxes. Final fruit size is below the minimum, requiring 273 pieces of ...
Read More The post April Citrus Forecast: Florida Down, California Up appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
On March 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reduced Florida’s orange and grapefruit crop forecasts again. Valencia oranges took the biggest hit, dropping 3 million boxes, or 12%, to 23 million boxes. The forecast for the non-Valencia crop, which is virtually all harvested, actually rose 500,000 boxes, or 4%, to 18.2 million boxes. That means ...
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Florida’s projected 2021–22 orange crop was reduced by 1 million boxes, to 43.5 million boxes, in the February citrus crop forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service. The forecast was released Feb. 9. The entire orange reduction was in the to-be-harvested Valencia crop, which was reduced 4% to 26 million boxes. The forecast for non-Valencia ...
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service released its monthly U.S. citrus production forecast on Jan. 12. ORANGESThe report showed another 3% drop in Florida orange production down to 44.5 million boxes. The initial forecast in October predicted 47 million boxes. The forecast for all oranges fell by 1.5 million boxes from the December report. Florida’s non-Valencia ...
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The California Citrus Mutual (CCM) Marketing Committee estimates that the total navel orange crop for the 2021-22 season will be down 20% from the previous season’s final utilized, or sold, production. The committee also estimates that the mandarin crop will be down as much as 45% from the 2020-2021 season. According to the California Department of Food and Agriculture’s 2021-22 California ...
Read More The post Big Dips in California Navel and Mandarin Forecasts appeared first on Citrus Industry Magazine.
The second 2021-2022 orange crop forecast update for Brazil’s São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt was released on Dec. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The orange crop is projected at 264.14 million boxes. The crop size is down 1.39% from September’s forecast update and continues in a downward trend. Since May, the crop has decreased a total ...
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© Florida Department of Citrus On Dec. 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service reported the Florida orange forecast at 46 million boxes. Total orange production is down 2% from the October forecast but down 13% from last season’s final utilization.
The decrease is in Florida non-Valencia production, which now stands at 18 million boxes. Current droppage is above average and is projected to be above average at harvest.
The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 450,000 boxes, and is 3% of the non-Valencia total. Navel size and droppage are above average.
The forecast for Valencia production is unchanged from the October forecast of 28 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest.
The forecast for Florida grapefruit took a positive turn, up 8% from October. Production increased 300,000 boxes to 4.1 million boxes. If realized, this will equal last season’s final production.
The red grapefruit forecast increased 100,000 boxes to 3.3 million boxes. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and droppage is projected to be below average.
The white grapefruit forecast jumped 200,000 boxes to 800,000 boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average; projected droppage is below average.
The forecast for Florida tangerine and tangelos is unchanged from the October forecast at 900,000 boxes and is 1% more than last season’s utilization of 890,000 boxes.
Listen to the Florida citrus crop forecast:
Florida Citrus Crop Forecast See the December citrus crop forecast report from USDA.
The California and Texas citrus production forecasts were carried forward from the previous forecast and are unchanged.
The next USDA citrus crop forecast will be broadcast Jan. 12, at approximately 12 noon Eastern/9 a.m. Pacific time. Hear the broadcast on CitrusIndustry.net.
Thank you to the 2021-22 citrus crop forecast sponsors: Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida and OrangeRX.
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
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Northern Hemisphere lemon production is expected to increase, while oranges, grapefruit and soft citrus are forecast to decrease. The World Citrus Organisation’s Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for 2021-22 projects production of 29.342 million tons, a 1.27% decrease from the previous season. The preliminary forecast was based on data from industry associations in Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey, along with United States projections. The U.S. projections were based on U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports for Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. The forecast was presented during the Nov. 16-17 Global Citrus Congress.
The hemisphere’s orange production is projected to decrease by 3.45% to a total of 15.5 million tons. A slight decrease is also expected for grapefruit (-0.34%, 946.5 tons) and soft citrus (-0.7%, 8.5 million tons) production. Lemon production, on the other hand, is estimated to increase by 5.64% and reach 4.5 million tons.
In Europe, citrus production is forecast to experience a 9.35% decrease in Greece, a 7.74% decrease in Spain and a 2.62% decrease in Italy. In the Southern rim of the Mediterranean, production is projected to decrease in Tunisia (-21.97%) and remain stable in Egypt (-0.06%). Increases are expected in Israel (+26.63%), Turkey (+21.85%) and Morocco (+5.53%).
The 2021-22 U.S. citrus crop is expected to decrease by 11.79% compared to last year. In its initial estimate of the season on Oct. 12, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecast U.S. orange production to decline from 103.95 million boxes in 2020-21 to 91.05 million boxes in 2021-22. U.S. grapefruit production is forecast to increase from 10.4 million boxes to 10.8 million boxes. Lemons are expected to climb from 22.1 million boxes to 22.3 million boxes. Tangerines and tangelos are predicted to drop from 28.99 million boxes to 21.9 million boxes. See the U.S. forecast.
Source: World Citrus Organisation
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Ray Royce Ray Royce, executive director of Highlands County Citrus Growers Association, was surprised that the initial Florida orange forecast for the 2021-22 season was only 47 million boxes. “I had hoped we’d be a lot closer to what our final numbers were from last year,” he said. Actual production in 2020-21 was 52.8 million boxes.
The crop forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on Oct. 12.
“I’m hoping that the numbers in Highlands County are a little stronger for the 15-20% of the industry that we represent,” Royce said. He added that he knows many groves are going out of production in other parts of the state.
Royce noted that NASS indicated there was smaller fruit size and fewer fruit per tree for most oranges so far this season. “My hope is that we will see good weather for the next several months, and maybe this fruit will go ahead and size up. Those growers that have made significant investments in their properties may have some individually good crops if we don’t have a great crop overall for the state,” he said.
Many growers in Highlands County have discussed the use of gibberellic acid, which researchers say can increase fruit yields, Royce said. “We’re going to take advantage of every tool there is to go ahead and try to decrease the drop rate,” he added.
Asked about tree condition, Royce said groves in which growers have made “significant investments in proactively taking care of their groves … look in pretty good shape.”
Royce was interviewed by Citrus Industry magazine editor Tacy Callies soon after the initial forecast was released.
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Ernie NeffSenior Correspondent at Large
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Growers gathered at Putnam Ranch in Zolfo Springs, Florida, to hear the USDA’s initial crop forecast. Florida citrus grower Kyle Story of The Story Companies thought the initial Florida orange crop forecast for the 2021-22 season was “realistic.” But the 47-million-box forecast struck fellow grower Paul Meador as low. Meador is president of Everglades Harvesting and Hauling and serves on the Florida Citrus Commission.
The crop forecast, well below last season’s 52.8 million boxes of Florida orange production, was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service on Oct. 12.
“We’re still quite a ways away from the juice harvest beginning,” Story said. “We’ll see what the weather does between now and then. The fruit still has a chance to size, which can help the crop number to come up. But I think it’s a very realistic number based on what I see within the industry.”
“I think the number was lower than I was expecting, but I think it was lower than the whole industry was expecting,” Meador said. “We keep waiting for that changing moment when the crop begins to increase steadily. Some of us thought maybe that would be this year. So it was disappointing, but things could be worse, too.”
Meador added that since the weather has been so moderate for the last 12 months, maybe the crop will do a little better than the estimate this year. “There doesn’t appear to be as many pieces of fruit falling on the ground,” he said. “The size may not be better, but it seems like the fruit quality might be a little better. So maybe this year they’re (forecasters) on the low side rather than the high side. So, I’ll remain optimistic.”
TREE CONDITION
“We see plant improvement year over year,” said Story. “We see green, healthy trees, particularly up and down the Ridge. We see new trees that have been replanted doing very well, and a whole host of rootstocks that are doing well. Each is different, and they require different inputs, but we learn more and more each day.”
GIBBERELLIC ACID
Meador has been experimenting with gibberellic acid (GA), which University of Florida researchers have strongly recommended recently as a means to increase yield in HLB-affected trees. “We have a little bit of experience with gibberellic acid. We’re going to continue those experiments, maybe expand them a little bit and see what kind of return we get,” Meador said. “We are making an application as we speak.”
Asked about possible GA use, Story said, “All options are on the table. The GA option is more recent … But we don’t have any specific plans much differently than to keep the trees as healthy as we can.”
PLANTING AND PRICING
“We’re doing a heavy reset this year; no new solid plantings,” Story reported. “We’re going to plant between 12,000 and 15,000 resets on about 3,000 acres. So it’s very aggressive in the next coming months.” He said he will reset “almost exclusively Valencia-type oranges for juice” on numerous rootstocks.
Meador weighed in on the possible impact of a low crop size on fruit prices: “Unfortunately, there’s only so much a consumer can pay. There’s only so much that a retailer’s willing to pay. I don’t know that we’re at the ceiling yet, but we’re probably getting close to that.”
Story and Meador were interviewed by Citrus Industry magazine editor Tacy Callies soon after the initial forecast was released.
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Ernie NeffSenior Correspondent at Large
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Members of the Florida citrus industry gathered for lunch on Oct. 12 at Putnam Ranch in Zolfo Springs to hear the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) initial 2021-22 citrus crop forecast. While many growers expected the Florida figures to be similar to the 2020-21 season, some thought the numbers would be even lower. On the other hand, a few growers were optimistic that the numbers would improve.
Bill Curtis, agricultural statistics administrator with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, broadcast the forecast numbers on Southeast AgNet Radio Network affiliate stations to AgNet Media’s Josh McGill.
Florida citrus industry members gathered to hear the first forecast of the season.
ORANGES
The Florida orange forecast, at 47 million boxes, is down 11% from last season’s final utilization.
In Florida, early, mid-season and navel varieties (non-Valencias) are forecast at 19 million boxes, down 16% from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 28 million boxes, is down 7% from last season’s final utilization.
According to Curtis, the fruit per tree is the lowest on record for both Florida non-Valencias and Valencias. The records date back to the 1964-65 crop. In addition, he said that both types of orange trees this season have smaller fruit size than average.
The California orange forecast is 43.5 million boxes, down from last season’s 50.1 million boxes. The California navel orange forecast is 35 million boxes, down 14% from last season. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.5 million boxes, a decrease of 11% from last season.
The Texas orange forecast, at 550,000 boxes, is down 48%.
The total U.S. orange forecast for the 2021-22 season is 3.88 million tons, down 12% from the 2020-21 final utilization.
GRAPEFRUIT
Florida grapefruit production is forecast at just 3.8 million boxes, down from 4.1 million boxes in 2020-21. This represents a 7% decline in the crop. Red varieties are at 3.2 million boxes, while white is at 600,000 boxes.
The forecast for California grapefruit production, 3.9 million boxes, is unchanged from last season and slightly higher than the Florida grapefruit forecast.
Texas grapefruit production is expected to increase, from 2.4 million boxes last season to 3.1 million boxes this season.
TANGERINES AND TANGELOS
Florida tangerine and tangelo production is forecast at 900,000 boxes, up 1% from 890,000 boxes last season.
California tangerines and tangelos are forecast at 21 million boxes, down from 28.1 million boxes last season.
LEMONS
The Arizona lemon crop is forecast to increase from 800,000 boxes to 1.3 million boxes.
California lemon production is expected to be flat, with 21.3 million boxes last season vs. 21 million this season.
See the full USDA forecast report here.
Listen to the citrus crop forecast. The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on Dec. 9 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.
Coverage of the Citrus Crop Forecast is brought to you by Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida, and Orange RX.
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The California Department of Food and Agriculture, working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has announced that the initial 2021-22 California navel orange forecast is 70 million cartons, down 14% from the previous year. Of the total navel orange forecast, 67 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 6 million cartons.
These forecasts are based on the results of the 2021-22 Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from June 15 to Sept. 1, 2021. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production. This forecast includes production of conventional, organic and specialty navel oranges (including Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties).
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 239, down 25% from the previous year and below the five-year average of 344. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.145 inches, below the five-year average of 2.208 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 211 with a diameter of 2.146 inches.
A sample of 785 navel orange groves was randomly selected in proportion to county and variety bearing acreage, and 707 of these were used for the survey. Once a grove was randomly chosen and grower permission was granted, two trees were randomly selected. The navel orange sample included conventional, organic, Cara Cara and blood orange groves.
In the last week of the survey period, fruit diameter measurements were made on the right quadrant of four trees surrounding the two trees of every third grove. These measurements were used to estimate an average fruit diameter per tree. Of the 707 utilized groves, 10 were in Madera County, 119 were in Fresno County, 419 were in Tulare County, and 157 were in Kern County.
A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984-85 season, except for 1991-92. Data from the first two years were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating models. The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the California Citrus Advisory Committee.
See the full report.
Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture
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