Fi Plan Partners: Recent Episodes
Fi Plan Partners
Don’t miss this week’s episode featuring Mark Hume as he explores the benefits of buy-sell agreements for businesses. Tune in to discover how these agreements can strengthen your company when implemented correctly.
Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Maximizing Value in a Buy-Sell Agreement first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Last week, the Federal Reserve made the decision to cut interest rates, which will impact the economy and markets. In this episode, the Portfolio Team reviews the historical effects of rate cuts and discusses what the future may hold for housing, inflation, corporate earnings, and more.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fed Cut, Now What? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us as Ashley Page dives into the history of personal real estate transaction costs in the United States. Discover how and why these costs are becoming more transparent and affordable.
Watch the full episode to gain valuable insights on how these changes will impact housing prices and the economy moving forward.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Cost of Buying and Selling Real Estate first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join our Portfolio Team as they explore the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Watch as they break down the historical trends of rate cuts and explain how these changes could impact markets and the overall economic landscape.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fed on the Move first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team analyzes the Federal Reserve’s focus on jobs and inflation, market volatility, and corporate America’s performance. They also discuss the US budget deficit, future data reports, and their implications for the economy and market.
Watch to learn about these topics and more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Earnings, The Fed, and Deficit first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
We invite you to join Ty Miller as he delves into the intricacies of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), commonly known as the market’s fear gauge. In this episode, Ty provides insights into how the Portfolio Team monitors this real-time index and assesses its role in measuring market volatility.
Watch the full episode to learn more.
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Explaining the Market’s Fear Gauge first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us this week as our dedicated Portfolio Team delves into the latest economic data, providing you with valuable insights on the US job market, housing trends, and broader economic indicators.
Watch to learn about these market-moving topics and more.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Jobs Lost, Housing Found first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for an in-depth discussion with two leading voices in small business advocacy: Greg Powell, President and CEO of Fi Plan Partners, and Jeff Brabant, Vice President of Government Relations at the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
In this must-watch episode, Greg and Jeff delve into the critical ways NFIB supports small business owners. Discover the key legislative issues currently shaping the business landscape and learn how recent developments could influence your business’s growth and innovation.
Watch to gain valuable insights and equip yourself with the knowledge to drive your business forward.
You can also listen to this bonus episode on our Investors’ Insights and Market Update podcast.
What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free-thinking people who refuse to conform to society’s standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational.
What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing what hasn’t been done before. New ideas, methods, solutions, systems, products, and tools at the heart of every Maverick is the power of innovation. So, let’s tap into the mind of an innovator!
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Innovation Mavericks: Jeff Brabant, Vice President, Federal Government Relations- NFIB first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s episode to gain insights from the Portfolio Team as they analyze the recent market volatility and the ongoing media discussions.
Tune in to review the team’s data analysis on interest rates, jobs, and more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Unnecessary Fear first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for our latest episode, in which the Portfolio Team provides valuable insights into the recent market volatility. Discover how current economic news is shaping the markets and gain a historical perspective on these trends.
Click the link below to stay informed and enhance your understanding of today’s market dynamics.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Is This Normal? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us in this week’s episode as the Portfolio Team delves into key insights for navigating the summer months, including market concentration driven by the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, 10-year treasury yields, inflation trends, and more.
Watch to gain valuable knowledge and stay informed.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Ten, Ten, 2020 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Are you a Business Owner feeling anxious about your financial future? Let Greg Powell’s book, Better Richer Fuller, be your guide. In this week’s episode, Greg emphasizes the importance of planning for your financial future and shares insights on how his book can help you develop a strategy to achieve your goals. Don’t let financial worries hold you back from living your dream life.
Watch to learn how to turn your vision into reality.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Better Richer Fuller: Owning a Business first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Stay informed with this week’s episode as the Federal Reserve prepares to make a significant announcement regarding inflation and interest rates. Learn what the Portfolio Team has to say as they analyze the data and provide insights into the Fed’s potential decision along with other key economic indicators.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fed Up, Stock Supply Down first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Dive into this week’s episode where Ashley Page provides a comprehensive breakdown of the various types of SBA loans available and offers valuable insights on the application process. Whether you’re a small business owner looking to secure funding or simply interested in learning more about financial opportunities, this episode is packed with essential information to help you make informed decisions. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of SBA loans and enhance your financial knowledge.
Watch the full episode to learn more.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Understanding SBA Loans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join the Portfolio Team as they delve into discussions about the largest election in history and the essential reports they monitor to stay abreast of economic trends.
Gain valuable insights on how these significant topics could potentially influence the markets and economy by clicking the link below to watch the full episode.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Election and The Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
As a business owner, it’s crucial to have a clear understanding of your exit options and to have a dedicated team to support you in making those critical decisions. In this insightful episode, Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® and Robert L. Moody III, CFP®, CEPA®, emphasize the significance of creating an exit plan well in advance. By proactively preparing for the transition out of your business, you can ensure a smooth and successful handover when the time comes.
Don’t miss out on this informative episode.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Robert Moody here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Forming an Exit Strategy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post It Matters first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® and Robert L. Moody III, CFP®, CEPA®, shed light on the importance of hiring a Certified Exit Planning Advisor. As a business owner, planning for the future of your business is crucial, and a CEPA can help you navigate the complex process of exiting your business. With their knowledge in financial planning and business strategies, a CEPA can help you maximize the value of your business and ensure a smooth transition.
Don’t miss out on this informative episode that could potentially save you thousands of dollars in the long run. Tune in now!
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Robert Moody here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post How Can a CEPA Help You? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this episode where the Portfolio Team delves into the lasting effects of the pandemic on the economy and market. Hear about the latest economic data reports and gain insights on the Federal Reserve’s actions to mitigate the impact.
Watch the full episode to learn more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fed Dilemma first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join Greg Powell and the Financial Planning team at Fi Plan Partners in this week’s episode as they delve into essential topics often overlooked by Business Owners. Gain valuable insights on selling your business, buy-sell agreements, tax implications, and more.
Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn more about how you can work to secure a financial future for yourself and your business.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Robert Moody here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Topics That Business Owners Overlook first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Dive into this week’s episode as the Portfolio Team tackles recent client inquiries on market trends, investment returns, interest rates, and more. Gain valuable insights on how the team strategizes to navigate these crucial topics moving forward.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Market Returns and Fed Policy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, Jason Hatley provides a comprehensive overview of Qualified Charitable Distributions. QCDs are a tax-efficient way for individuals who are 70 ½ years or older to donate to charity directly from their IRA. By making a QCD, individuals can satisfy their Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) while also reducing their taxable income.
Watch the full episode to hear Jason explain the benefits of QCDs and more.
Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Qualified Charitable Distributions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this episode, the Portfolio Team talks about the importance of dividends and how they have historically helped offset inflation.
Watch to learn more about investment strategies, consumer income, and more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Dividends and Liquidity Matter first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners constantly analyzes market trends, both positive and negative. Watch this week’s episode to hear them discuss market drawdowns, concentration risks, and more.
Click the link below to hear what they have to say.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Taking the Good With the Bad first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Tune in for a detailed discussion with Trey Booth as he delves into the details behind the rise in US debt, as well as the strength of Corporate America’s Balance Sheet and the US Treasury.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Corporate America’s Balance Sheet Versus The US Treasury first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join the Portfolio Team in this week’s vlog as they delve into a discussion on inflation and April seasonality, shedding light on how these factors could potentially influence the markets as we head into the summer months.
Watch the full episode to learn more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Masters and the Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Dive into the topic of market volatility with our Portfolio Team in this week’s episode. Gain insights into what the Portfolio Team looks at during market reactions and how they identify signs of a peaking bull market.
Watch to learn about this topic and more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Bull Market Top? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Stay ahead of the game this tax season with our latest educational episode featuring Adam Vansant, SVP of Operations and Advisory Services, and Sonja McGittigan, Operations Specialist. Gain valuable insights on retirement plan contribution updates, 1099s, and tips on simplifying data gathering for your CPA or Accountant.
Watch this episode to learn more.
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™
Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Sonja McGittigan
Operations Specialist
Email Sonja McGittigan here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Important Tax Reminders first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us in this episode as the Portfolio Team delves into the intricacies of debt, GDP, earnings, and other crucial economic indicators. Gain valuable insights into how this data shapes the future of the US economy.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Debt and Earnings on the Rise first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join Trey Booth and Greg Powell in this engaging episode where they delve into the future of interest rates and other market-moving topics such as the US Treasury, debt, and more.
Gain valuable insights and stay informed on the latest trends by watching the full episode above.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post End of a Negative Era first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Dive into the latest insights on the US commercial real estate market as Ashley Page sheds light on the significant 20% vacancy rate. Discover the underlying reasons for these vacancies and gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics in this week’s episode.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Sourced data: NAIOP’s Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate, 2023 U.S. Edition.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Commercial Real Estate Vacancies first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Portfolio Team invites you to join them for an insightful discussion on the inverted yield curve, which has historically led to recessions, as well as other important topics such as record productivity, the Fed, and inflation.
Watch to learn about these important economic topics and more.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Higher Inflation vs. Higher Productivity first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this episode, Ty Miller provides a comprehensive overview of stock splits and reverse stock splits. He delves into the reasons why companies choose to do these splits and how they can impact investors.
Tune in now to learn more.
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing includes risks, including fluctuating prices and loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post What is a Stock Split? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join the Portfolio Team as they discuss inflation, the consumer, and other factors impacting markets currently and what to expect moving forward.
Watch the video to hear what they have to say.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Valuations and Expectations first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumer StrengthWe’ve been enjoying a strong equity market overall, but as always, we are looking at our leading economic indicators. The strength of the consumer and robust consumer spending have been a key driver of the economy and equity markets in the last 12 months. As investment managers, we always look for cracks that are starting to show in the economy. One of those potential cracks is around consumer spending, specifically the durable goods order report that came out last week. Durable goods orders fell by 6.1%, the biggest drop in nearly four years. When discussing durable goods, we are talking about items that last more than three years and cost more than daily items, such as dishwashers, refrigerators, washers, and dryers. We follow durable goods orders because it has historically been a good barometer for how consumers are feeling and can serve as a proxy for the overall economy. We’ll continue to watch this carefully as the lower durable goods order report came out last week at the same time as when the consumer confidence index fell. We’ll be analyzing other consumer reports to see if this is a short-term blip or what looks to be a longer-term trend.
The Cost of AutomobilesThe cost of automobiles is something we watch closely because, for most people, it’s the second largest purchase in their lifetime behind their home. It’s very impactful on an individual’s balance sheet. Since COVID, the cost of the average car has skyrocketed. The average cost of a new car is $47,000. That’s up about 33% from 2019. The good news is that we’ve started to see that come down. Baron’s created a Vehicle Affordability Index. In 2019, the index was at 56. This combines wage growth, interest rates, and new car prices. It started at 56, went up to 66 in December 2022, and has now dropped back to 61. What does that mean? It means the average new car price is down around $3,000. We’ve seen interest rates come down a bit, so the car-buying public should start to see some relief as supply chains come through and the new car market rolls over. The downside is that this may not shift down to the used car market. Barron estimates that due to the reduction in car sales from 2020 to 2022, there are about ten million missing cars on the market. These are cars that would have been purchased and available on the resell market that were never purchased or built. That’s probably added upward pressure from the used car market. With how large of a purchase an automobile is, this is a massive driver in the economy. However, it’s great to see some relief with prices coming down. On the downside, we are expecting to see oil prices go up. Opec announced over the weekend that they’re extending their two-plus million-dollar barrel-per-day production cut through June. We saw the oil market react higher to that. Your car may be cheaper, but it will cost you more to get there to buy it. There’s no absolute, but there’s always a little bit of good and bad. However, it all impacts markets and consumers at the end of the day.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Consumers, Cars, and Gasoline first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation has been a hot topic in recent years, and for good reason. It can have a significant impact on the stock and bond markets. In this week’s episode, Trey Booth breaks down the metrics of the price-to-earnings ratio and explains how it relates to inflation and markets.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Inflation and P/E Ratio first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team delves into the potential government shutdown and its impact on the economy. They also provide updates on inflation and discuss how election year worries could affect markets.
Watch to hear what they have to say about these topics and more. #
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Government Shenanigans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Here we are nearly two decades after the doors of Fi Plan Partners opened for the first time on February 18, 2005. Little did we know what the market would do over the next 19 years. In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team takes a walk down memory lane, discussing historical markets and what their experience has been like over the years, as well as what they expect out of markets in the future.
In honor of our 19th anniversary, we are hosting our annual Investor’s Insights Markets and Your Money in 2024 event this week. Watch the full episode to learn more about this event and how to register.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Nineteen Years of Celebration first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
As an employee, you may be eligible for a range of benefits offered by your company. These benefits may include health insurance, 401(k) matching, HSAs, and more. However, it can be confusing to know whether you are making the most of these benefits or simply wasting your money.
In this episode, Mark Hume shares valuable tips and cautions to help you navigate your company benefits. He explains how to take advantage of the opportunities available to you, such as maximizing your 401(k) matching, and highlights some things to be cautious of, such as avoiding unnecessary insurance coverage. By following these tips and being aware of the potential pitfalls, you can ensure that you are making the most of your company benefits.
Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Maximizing Employee Benefits first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Geopolitical EventsIn a meeting last week, a client mentioned how they are worried about the conflict in the Middle East and with Russia and Ukraine and asked if they should reduce risk to stocks until the situation calms down. In this episode, we want to share our thoughts on that topic. There is a humanitarian crisis that obviously cannot be ignored. However, how do these conflicts impact the markets and economy? The first area we are watching is the impact on natural resources, such as the price of oil, because that will have the most significant impact on inflation, profits, and consumer spending. We’re also watching the shipping and logistics issues in the Middle East, which will continue to have an impact on inflation. When it comes to the impact on the stock market, historically, the market shrugs off these types of geopolitical events. When you look at how the S&P 500 has performed around invasions and conflicts since 1950, including Russia invading Ukraine, the market has historically recovered in the months following these events. While each conflict is different, it has historically been a prudent investment strategy to stay invested in a diversified allocation based on each client’s long-term plan. We will continue to observe the current conflicts, but it’s important to know this isn’t the first time and will not be the last time geopolitical conflicts cause market volatility.
Inflation and Interest RatesOut of all of the economic indicators that we track, the inflation report is the one that our clients feel most directly and is the one we look at for markets and planning, along with the cost of goods. The headline CPI is going to hit the print tomorrow. There are a lot of different inflation indicators, such as Core PCE, PPI, Core CPI, Super Core CPI, and more. A lot of those are essential, but a lot of them are also noise. We keep an eye on the headline Consumer Price Index because that’s what most people feel and is the one that’s been tracked the longest. Many economists are trying to cut out parts of the inflation that they don’t like. Here at Fi Plan Partners, we look at the overall picture. Data shows that there has been a clear downward trend of inflation since 2022, going from 9% down to 3.35%. However, when you drill down and analyze the data, it shows that inflation has been in an upward trend over the last few months, which is concerning. It may be a down from 2022, but the Fed is watching this concerning up trend, where inflation doesn’t seem to be going down to the 2% rate target that we’ve been used to over the last few decades. It’s stubbornly staying above 3%. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show that inflation has dropped below the 3% range. If it does, it will break the recent uptrend in place since June of 2023, which is a multi-month trend, not a short one. This is something we are watching very closely and are not very optimistic about because we have seen inflation surprise us to the upside over the last few months. This might be something that the Fed is seeing that the market isn’t anticipating. We’d like to see inflation come down and continue on a downward trend. The Fed was late to the game, so to speak, and the fear was that the Fed would drop rates too fast and that inflation would come back bigger than ever. The biggest risk now is that they step away too soon. Traditionally, inflation comes in multiple waves due to the Fed backing away too soon. When the Fed steps away too soon, and money starts to be printed again, inflation comes rolling back. It’s really important that the Fed does not count this as a win. At the end of last year, there was a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve taking a victory lap and claiming success over inflation, which is a little concerning, considering we still see inflation well above the target. This is something we plan to keep an eye on moving forward.
The Magnificent SevenOver the last year, there’s been a lot of talk about the Magnificent Seven and how concentrated the market has been. The Magnificent Seven are the seven largest companies in the world and makeup about 30% of the S&P 500. This number is outsized compared to historical comparisons but can be justified. According to the S&P 500 2023 earnings performance data, the Magnificent Seven grew earnings by 31% while the other 493 stocks grew at 1.9%, putting the overall S&P 500 growth at 6.2%. In the fourth quarter alone, the Magnificent Seven grew earnings by 60%, contributing to the S&P 500 overall being up a total of 7% in earnings. The remaining 493 of the stocks were down about 3% on earnings. Moving forward, we would like more broad-based participation, especially on the earning side. In 2024, the Magnificent Seven is estimated to contribute about 21% to earnings growth, with the rest of the 493 stocks estimated to contribute around 6%. It’ll be important to see how these ratios play out throughout the year. An overall 9% earnings growth to the S&P 500 would be a bright sign and would build off last year’s subpar earnings performance from the rest of the stock market.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Facts Over Emotion first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
We are thrilled to welcome Robert L. Moody III, CFP®, CEPA®, to our Financial Planning team at Fi Plan Partners. In this episode, he sits down with our President and CEO, Greg Powell, to discuss his passion for working with clients as they pursue a life that is Better, Richer, and Fuller. Robert brings a wealth of experience and expertise to our team, and we are confident that his skills will be a valuable asset to our clients.
Watch to learn more about Robert and his role at Fi Plan Partners.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Robert Moody here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Exciting News and Introductions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Get ready for an insightful episode as the Portfolio Team discusses market performance, interest rates, and dividends.
Watch the full episode and see what they have to say.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company. The First Trust S&P 500 Index Dividend Payout Profile dated 2/1/2024 is the source of data for this episode regarding dividends.
The post Payouts and Rate Cuts first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Gas Prices and Interest RatesAfter the last Federal Reserve meeting in November, the market started pricing in six rate cuts based on the Fed’s optimistic outlook on inflation. Since then, we’ve talked on these vlogs about how we don’t believe that will likely occur. This will be the first time the Fed comes together and pushes out what they think are the expectations for this year. The Fed will likely have to look at two recent instances to see what type of impact it has on inflation and interest rates. One of those items is the weather. We’ve all noticed it’s a little colder here in Alabama in the last few weeks. However, that doesn’t impact oil production. Where it does impact oil production is in North Dakota, where we produce a lot of oil. It was so cold that they had to stop producing oil. Typically, weather-related oil production cuts involve hurricanes going through the Gulf. This time, it was the cold weather that caused the halt. This is the first time in a long time that this has happened, resulting in oil production in North Dakota dropping by a million barrels a day. That is a lot of oil coming off the market that has yet to bleed into the gas market, as it will take some time. We expect that it may have an inflationary impact on oil down the road.
Shipping Containers and The FedThe impact of the Red Sea and the Middle East conflict on shipping has worsened. The recently released data shows that parts of the shipping lanes are now 225% higher in cost than they were just four weeks ago. We all remember shipping in 2021, and it seemed like something the Fed called transitory. However, it turned out to be much worse than transitory. Because of this, we would be surprised if the Fed used that word this time. We expect them to be more cautious and blow off what appears to be these one-off situations, which we expect will cause prices to go higher in the near term. It would be hard for the Fed to project strong rate cuts and inflation being beaten when we see these cost inputs coming in quickly, right into their meetings. We’re watching it closely as we feel like this is something the Fed has on its radar.
Global MarketsSomething we like to do in our vlogs is cover topics that clients and business partners ask us about throughout the previous week. One topic that came up last week was why, in most of our strategies, we heavily overweight the US stock market compared to international markets. In this episode, we show a chart that looks at annual global equity returns from 2011. On that chart, you will see that US markets have enjoyed fairly consistent outperformance over other markets. We have been overweight in US markets throughout this period of outperformance. Looking forward, we are focused on where economic growth is expected to be favorable. The current consensus global GDP expectations favor the US as growth expectations increase. The US is the only economy globally trending higher on recent reports. Fundamentals for 2024 favor the US. We are not saying some international exposure doesn’t make sense because it offers some diversification, but the US economy and markets look to continue its outperformance in the near term.
Markets and The US DollarThe Fed is meeting this week to see what to do with interest rates. However, there’s another meeting this week that isn’t getting the notoriety it should, which is the Treasury quarterly refunding meeting. This meeting has a significant impact on markets. In August, the Treasury decided to issue more long-term debt for the first time in three years, which had a big negative impact on the market. At the same time, yields rose, and the dollar spiked. In November, they reversed course and started to issue more short-term debt, which had the opposite effect on the market then. The stock market soared, and the dollar and yields went down. They have another meeting this week, so it will be essential to see if they go the short-term or long-term route. Yields are in a different spot than last year’s end, so it will be interesting to see how the markets digest what is decided.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Weather, Containers, and Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
As the world’s most widely used currency for international transactions, the US dollar has been the dominant reserve currency for decades. However, recent discussions have raised the possibility of the dollar losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. In this episode, Trey Booth delves into the implications of such a shift and what it could mean for the global economy.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Will The US Dollar Remain The Reserve Currency? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for a discussion with the Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners as they delve into the latest developments in the Middle East, the upcoming election, and more. They provide valuable insights into these critical areas, giving you a well-rounded view of the current economic landscape and how it impacts markets. Don’t miss this opportunity to stay informed. Tune in to watch the full episode.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Conflicts Near and Far first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The year has started off with choppy markets as the uncertainty of the Fed cutting interest rates continues to cause volatility.
Tune in to watch this full episode to hear what the Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners has to say about this topic and more.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Reserved Optimism first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
While the media may only be reporting on surface-level headlines, we like to provide our viewers with a behind-the-scenes look at what’s really going on in the market.
Tune in to watch this full episode and learn more about the topics you need to know about as we kick off the new year.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
The post Beyond the Market Headlines first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for this week’s episode where Ty Miller shares his insights on the different economic indicators that we monitor to gauge the health of the economy. Ty breaks down each indicator and explains how it affects businesses and consumers alike. Tune in to learn more.
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Economic Indicators first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this episode, Mark Hume provides valuable insights on the significance of umbrella policies and how they can be essential in protecting your assets. He gives real-life examples of situations where an umbrella policy could have made all the difference in protecting individuals and families from financial ruin. Whether it’s a car accident or a slip-and-fall incident, an umbrella policy provides an additional layer of liability coverage that goes beyond the limits of your standard insurance policies. Tune in to this episode to learn more about the importance of umbrella policies and how they can give you peace of mind.
Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Importance of Umbrella Policies first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Home insurance costs have been on the rise in recent years. This trend of charging more for less coverage has become increasingly common with insurance companies. In this week’s educational episode, Ashley Page delves into the reasons behind this phenomenon. Among the factors contributing to this trend are increased risks associated with weather-related events, a rise in fraudulent claims, and increased costs of rebuilding and repair. As homeowners, it’s important to understand these factors and make informed decisions when choosing insurance policies. Tune in to learn more about this trend and how you can protect your home and finances.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Home Insurance first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for this week’s episode where the Portfolio Team goes over the investors’ wish list, providing insights and analysis on specific items, and explores the latest forecasts for interest rates in 2024.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Rate Cut Grinch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
JobsAs we look forward to 2024, we also want to reflect on 2023. We came into this year with many economists calling for a recession and a significant slowdown in jobs. Those economists have been wrong, as the job market has stayed strong throughout the year. Last week, the jobs report showed that the US economy added another solid month of job growth, adding 199,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, which is much better than what economists expected. Job gains occurred in health care and government, with a meaningful increase in manufacturing, which got a boost from workers returning from a labor strike. We are watching the loss of retail jobs because it’s no secret that technology and e-commerce play a role in those job losses. One theme we will observe in 2024 is the impact technology and artificial intelligence will have on the economy and markets next year. So, it’s great to see a strong jobs report, but as we’ve seen throughout the year, strong economic reports have kept the Fed in the spotlight to see what they will say about keeping rates higher for longer. We celebrated the strong jobs report last week, but there is a concern that it will keep the Federal Reserve in the picture and give them options to continue their fight to slow down the economy. We will be keeping an eye on this as we head into 2024.
The FedGood economic data puts the Federal Reserve in a box, and this week, we will get reports on CPI, inflation, and the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. It’s widely expected that the Fed will hold rates where they are. What is interesting to see is what the market has been doing while the Fed has been meeting. From the Fed’s September meeting to the meeting in November, the 10-year treasury moved from 4.35% to 4.77%. The Fed talked in their meeting about how the market had tightened economic conditions without them having to raise rates. Interest rates went up and tightened economic conditions, which is what the Fed wants to do to bring inflation down. Since the November meeting, the 10-year treasury has gone from 4.7% to 4.14%. The market has loosened economic conditions and set the stage for what could be higher inflation, which is against what the Fed would like. Reports say that the market anticipates the Fed cutting rates sometime next year. However, that will be hard for them to do if inflation remains above the 2% target. We’re currently at a high end of 5.5%. Inflation is expected to be somewhere between 3%-3.9% this week, which is lower and on the correct trend, but in reality, it’s not at the preferred 2%. We’re big fans of the free market and expect the market to be right most times, but the market is extremely wrong when predicting what Jerome Powell will do. After the Fed’s December meeting last year, the market expected the Fed funds rate to be 4.3% in December 2023. Today, the Fed funds rate is at 5.5%. The market has consistently expected the Fed to stop hiking rates and start cutting rates. The market has consistently been wrong since the Federal Reserve finally realized that inflation was no longer transitory. They had to do something and stop it. This is the market using optimism over experience to project where the Fed will be. No history shows us that Jerome Powell will cut rates in the face of higher inflation and strong jobs. It’s hard to see a world where rates are coming down without the economy weakening at some point. The trends are conflicting right now, so that’s what we’re watching closely. The Fed will speak this week and maybe push the market back on the right side.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Trends vs. Reality first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
With the end of the year fast approaching, it’s vital to stay on top of important financial tasks like taking your RMD, charitable donations, IRA contributions, and more. In this week’s episode, the Operations Team at Fi Plan Partners shares valuable insights and tips to help you ensure these time-sensitive items are taken care of before the year ends.
Watch the full episode to learn more.
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™
Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Sonja McGittigan
Operations Specialist
Email Sonja McGittigan here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Year-End Deadlines first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Waves of InflationIt was a great November for the stock and bond markets, as the threat and uncertainty of future rate hikes from the Fed have now turned into thoughts of rate cuts next year. While seeing market strength and breadth widen was great, we believe the market’s timeline for rate cuts next year is premature. We, along with the Fed, know that history suggests a second wave of inflation could delay any rate cuts that are currently being discussed. Looking back at different times throughout history when inflation spiked, such as 1910, 1939, 1972, and 2019, there was a second wave of inflation. The Fed has made it clear that they are committed to finishing the job, so rate cuts might be further out than investors are expecting. We would like to see the market up for more substantial reasons, such as corporate earnings and a strong consumer, and not just up on the thought that the Fed will be cutting rates early next year, which, again, we feel is premature based on previous waves of inflation.
Rate Cuts vs. HoldsThe prediction for the Fed funds future rate is going from where we are currently to four rate cuts of 25 basis points going through next year. In a chart shown in this episode, you will see that it appears that there will be more than four cuts and that they are not really in 25-basis point increments. That’s because the Fed funds rate futures market is just predicting the likelihood of a cut. It’s not necessarily saying this is what the rate will be on this specific day. It’s saying the odds are that a cut will take place at this time and possibly be higher or lower than the predicted number. A hold on interest rates is a perfect time period for the market. We prefer that the Fed hold rates instead of cutting them because the S&P 500’s performance has historically been better. It’s a Goldilocks environment as opposed to hiking or cutting rates. At this time, we think that the Fed is done hiking interest rates. Still, if we can prolong cuts, that would be better for the market in the short term since, historically, market performance is significantly better during rate holds rather than rate cuts.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Finish The Job first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join the Portfolio Team as they dive into the recent housing data, interest rates, and historical data surrounding market performance in election years.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Deposits vs. Loans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Impact of Inflation on ThanksgivingEvery year, we review this data, and it has been rough for the last few years. It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to talk about consumer prices coming down. From 2020, the average consumer prices are up over 20%. However, what we’re going to focus on is just the Thanksgiving dinner part. From 2022 to 2023, the average price of a Thanksgiving dinner has come down from $64 to just over $61, a nice drop in prices. Hopefully, as everyone’s been preparing to sit down with the family, they notice some nice savings. A large percentage of that drop came from the price of turkey. Across the country, a 16-pound turkey will now cost you about $1.61 less. That should be a welcome reprieve right before the Christmas buying season. While we are down from last year, we’re still well above the 2019 level, so more work still needs to be done. However, it has to start somewhere, and we will take the drops where we can get them. Pumpkin pie, a veggie tray, rolls, and sweet potatoes are all higher this year, with everything else being lower.
Market PerformanceAfter a year of a very bifurcated market where only a handful of stocks were constantly going up, we are finally starting to see breadth in the market, which we have seen for three weeks. The market has broken through resistance, a welcomed event after failed rally attempts throughout the year. More importantly, we have finally seen a few very strong days with breadth. On November 2nd, we had an eight-to-one day; last Tuesday, we saw a fourteen-to-one day. These are days where there have been a lot more stocks up than down. We look for these types of days to see if the market can sustain strength and rallies. We are hoping we can continue this rally through Thanksgiving week.
Government ShutdownWe have already averted a government shutdown once, and from what we can tell, it seems like we’re going to avert it again, at least through the rest of this year. The House and the Senate passed a continuing budget resolution. Portions of that will extend through January 19th, 2024, with the remaining parts extending through February 2nd, 2024. Instead of having everything lumped together, they split into pieces, which might make it easier to get something more permanent passed in the upcoming year.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Thankful Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Are higher interest rates helping or hurting Corporate America? Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Trey Booth go over the details related to this topic.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Impact of Interest Rates on Corporate America first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this episode, the Portfolio Team goes over the data they look at on an ongoing basis to keep a pulse on the economy and the markets.
Watch the full episode and hear what they have to say about interest rates, inflation, and other market-moving topics.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Inflation High, Water Levels Low first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
We are coming off a great week for markets, and in this episode, the Portfolio Team goes over the details behind the positivity and tells what this could mean going forward.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
The post Market Momentum? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
We have an important week ahead as the Fed will be in the spotlight. In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team gives an update on our recession watch checklist that clients have been asking about.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post On Fed and Recession Watch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
At Fi Plan Partners, we take great pride in working with business owners to help them build, grow, and sell their businesses. Our goal is to help business owners build valuable companies, have stronger personal financial plans, and align their personal goals.
In this episode, you will hear from Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®, Managing Director of Fi Plan Partners. He goes over his Certified Exit Planning Advisor designation and how it has helped him offer specialized services to our business owner clients, as well as a comprehensive strategy around their business and personal financial planning.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Fi Plan Partners and LPL Financial do not offer business valuation services.
The post Exit Strategies for Your Business first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, the Portfolio Team delves into the impact of spiking interest rates, the historical relevance of pre-election years, and the potential effects of the upcoming GDP report on economic forecasts.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Watching Spikes Carefully first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
HeadwindsThe market has a lot of headwinds and uncertainty right now with a conflict in Israel, questions about what the Federal Reserve will do, and a potential government shutdown next month. Still, one bright spot that is a key driver of equity markets is corporate earnings. Third quarter earnings season started strong last week, with some big banks reporting better-than-expected earnings results. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report back-to-back quarters of earnings growth, which is following an earnings recession seen earlier in the year. Analysts are also calling for earnings to continue to grow next year. We are looking to see if profit margins improve for the second quarter. As profit margins fell earlier in the year, we’ve seen many corporations improve efficiency ratios and pass higher costs on to a strong consumer in recent months, leading to higher profits, which has been a pleasant surprise for corporations. While stocks move on earnings reports, the profit margin surprises make company stocks move. As earnings season kicks into gear this week, strong corporate earnings and profits can help the market surpass all the current headwinds.
International IssuesOur thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the current situation with Israel. We wanted to cover what that situation means for the US regarding markets and financials. In this episode, you can see a chart that shows how stocks usually react to geopolitical events. Often, these events happen, and people think they need to sell. One of the interesting things is that this was only the fifth time that the market was up when a major event happened. This time, the market was up 0.3%. It wasn’t up a tremendous amount, but those previous four times where the market was up the day of the event, the max drawdown was 1.5%. On a market scope, it seems to have very little impact. The average drawdown for all these market shock events is 4.7%, which is nothing crazy. Another chart in this episode shows how markets react during recessionary and non-recessionary times. This is something that is hard to translate today. Are we going into a recession? Have we already had a recession?
Oil PricesHow will the Israel-Hamas war affect oil prices? The Middle East is a huge oil supplier, and it’s very interesting to see how crude oil could react. On a chart shown in this episode, you will see there have been some ups and downs. However, there have been more ups, especially if you look at the specific Middle East events like the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the 1973 Oil Embargo. All these events, for the most part, resulted in higher oil prices. We will see how this affects the consumer if oil prices start to be elevated again. We saw a huge pop on day one of the war. The next 2-3 weeks will be very important as we see if the market can focus on what’s hopefully good corporate earnings and overpower all of what’s going on geopolitically overseas.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Earnings vs. Geopolitical Events first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join Jason Hatley for this week’s educational episode, where he reviews the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 that will go into effect starting in 2025. He goes over the details of the new rules including the creation of a retirement savings lost and found database, new increased catch-up limits, and more.
Watch this episode and get up to speed on how these changes could affect you.
Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Secure Act 2.0: Provisions Effective in 2025 and Beyond first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In the latest episode, the Portfolio Team dives into the ongoing issues in Israel and the potential impacts on the US markets. With tensions rising and uncertainty looming, our team provides valuable insights and analysis to keep our listeners informed. Additionally, they provide an update on the current state of the job market.
Watch this episode to learn more.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Global Tensions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Volatile SeptemberComing into the month of September, we talked about how it’s usually the most volatile month of the year, and history repeated itself as the S&P 500 was down over 5% for the month. One of the biggest drivers of the volatility in September was due to rising interest rates as the 10-year treasury yield rose from 4.1% to end the month up to 4.57%. The rise in yields occurred partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. So, while the fear around higher rates has spooked the markets in the near term, stocks and interest rates usually rise together over time. Interest rates and stock valuations tend to be inversely correlated. While that relationship tends to hold for shorter periods at elevated rates, the S&P 500 Index tends to rise throughout sustained periods of rising interest rates. Looking at rising rates from the early 1960s through this year, only three of the fourteen periods of rising rates led to lower stock returns. The return through these periods shows that the market has averaged 16.3%. So yes, rising rates lead to short-term volatility, but stocks and rates usually rise together over more extended periods. Even if rates stay high or go higher, it doesn’t mean stocks will stay down.
2007 vs. 2023In this episode, Ty Miller shows a chart that maps out where we were in 2007 to where we are now. The year 2007 is relevant because that was the last time the 10-year Treasury yield was over 4.5%. We have come a long way since then. The S&P 500 was at a price of 1,541, and now it’s over 4,200. In the chart, you can see the similarities in oil, which was $87 a gallon and is now $91. In 2007, Bitcoin didn’t exist, of course. The largest weighting was Exxon, and now the largest stock is Apple. It’s always interesting to go back in history and see that we have made this big circle in terms of yields and what that looked like in 2007.
Government ShutdownWe spent all weekend getting ready to talk about a government shutdown, and lo and behold, the unexpected averting of a shutdown has happened as the government was able to work out a deal. The headline we are seeing is saying that Congress has, for now, averted the shutdown. We think this is most likely a 45-day thing, at least. It could go longer, but it puts that hold on for 45 days at least. It was very unexpected as the odds of the Government shutdown were approaching a near certainty, but they were able to get a bipartisan package through. The legislation includes $16 billion of disaster aid, excluding border funding and Ukraine aid. We think the next step here is that Speaker McCarthy’s speakership will be a little challenged. Right now, that’s just speculation based on everything that has happened. Not everyone was for this deal, but enough people were to get it through. Typically, stocks are not correlated at all with government shutdowns. History has shown some up years and some down years during shutdowns. GDP growth has very little correlation as well. As far as that goes, we have a lot more up years than down years. Each government shutdown is a little different. Right now, we have many workers on strike, along with higher gasoline prices. Consumer aid is rolling off, and consumers are picking up on student loan payments. Typically, while looking at these things, while they are a lot of headline risk, the actual results don’t necessarily match the headline risk. So, that’s something to keep in mind.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender and are not government backed. Cryptocurrencies are non-traditional investments, resulting in a different tax treatment than currency. Federal, state or foreign governments may restrict the use and exchange of cryptocurrency.
The post Rise Together first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
We are excited to announce that LPL is rolling out new enhancements to your account statements aimed at providing you with even greater transparency and clarity. In this informative video, you will learn about the upcoming changes, including improved visuals, simplified language, and more detailed information about your investments. Watch the video now to discover what’s coming!
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™
Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Sonja McGittigan
Operations Specialist
Email Sonja McGittigan here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Updates to Your LPL Statements first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Pre-ElectionToday, we have a chart to help us talk about pre-election years compared to 2023. They say that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme, and it’s remarkable how, on the chart, it shows that every pre-election year average has lined up to be symmetrical. There was a big difference in March due to the bank failures where the government stepped in and helped, so it didn’t expand. But now we’re in this time where the trend has flatlined. Historically, it has stayed flat through November, before a Santa Claus rally near the end of November and into December. Again, there are no guarantees, and history doesn’t have to repeat itself, but we find it interesting when you see something like this.
Eurozone StocksLast week, we talked about how a government shutdown, which is looking more likely to happen on October 1st, usually doesn’t lead to a long-term downtrend in stocks. We had a client ask about adding more exposure to eurozone stocks when the US is in the middle of a shutdown, so we wanted to discuss that. While we are big believers in diversification across asset classes, sectors, and different markets, we wanted to show two charts of why we remain overweight to US markets and underweight eurozone markets. The first chart shown in this episode reveals the Global Purchasing Managers Composite Index. The PMI is an index that shows the direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. It summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting as viewed by purchasing managers. The purpose of the PMI is to provide information about current and future business conditions. A reading above 50 represents an expansion, and a reading under 50 symbolizes a contraction. The current PMI of the eurozone is 46.7, which reveals contraction. The current reading of US PMI is 50.2, which means expansion. The second chart in this episode shows earnings estimates trending up for the S&P 500 and earnings estimates trending down for the European index. Corporate earnings are a key market driver, and estimates look better in the US than in the European index. So, in summary, we are allocated heavily towards US markets even with the threat of a government shutdown because the US economy and corporate earnings estimates are trending better than the eurozone.
The Federal ReserveThe markets reacted negatively to what the Fed gave us on Wednesday last week, but why did the markets react that way? The Fed did exactly what we expected them to do when we talked on Monday’s vlog last week. We expected them not to take any action, and the Fed left rates exactly where they are. However, the market quickly fell off 2.8% to close the week. This is likely due to what the Fed said they would do going forward. The Federal Reserve, at each of their meetings, projects where they expect the Fed funds rate, which they directly control, to be next year and in the following few years. In their July meeting, they expected the average Fed funds rate to be 4.6% in 2024. In this most recent meeting, they increased that up to 5.1%. That’s effectively saying that there will be two more rate hikes, on average, between where we are today and where everyone expected us to be over 2024. That is a massive tightening without having to do a single thing, and the market immediately reacted with higher interest rates and lower stocks. Looking globally, the ECB didn’t imply higher rates; instead, they increased rates again, even though their economy is weakening. The European Central Bank hiked interest rates by 25 base points. This week, the Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates by another 25 base points as well. Our Fed is projecting strength while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England must continue to hike rates, even though they’re slowing. This is something that is concerning. The international market seems to be weakening, and the US appears to be holding up. We may be the cleanest house on a bad street, but as Thomas Sowell once said, there are no absolutes in economics; everything’s relative. So, there’s no absolute good here, but the US looks much stronger with our Fed being able to pause and project strength with the global central banks having to still actively try and weaken their economy. We’re watching this closely, especially with the markets watching and a major dip to close the week last week.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Cautiously Optimistic first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join Jason Hatley for this week’s educational episode, where he reviews the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 that will go into effect starting in 2024. He goes over the details of the new rules, including changes in SIMPLE IRA employer matching, the ability to roll over unused 529 plan funds, and more.
Watch this episode and get up to speed on how these changes could affect you starting next year.
Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
This material was created for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as ERISA, tax, legal or investment advice. If you are seeking investment advice specific to your needs, such advice services must be obtained on your own separate from this educational material.
A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Secure Act 2.0: Provisions Effective in 2024 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Government ShutdownsWe are watching news out of Washington D.C. this week for what is expected to be a few weeks of tough negotiations to try and avoid a government shutdown on October 1st. Negotiations are set to begin this week when both chambers of Congress are set to be in session for the first time since July. There is no doubt that investors will be watching negotiations closely for potential impacts on the market. We have been looking back in history to see what impact previous government shutdowns have had on the markets, and history says the market takes government shutdowns in stride. We looked at research into the past 20 government shutdowns since 1976 and the impact on markets and found that the market was almost exactly flat after adding all the stoppages together. While government shutdowns cause initial volatility, the market action has depended more on other factors like corporate earnings. When looking at the specific performance of certain government shutdowns that lasted longer, market performance hasn’t been impacted as much as investors might think. Even in the 2018/2019 standoff, the longest in history, the S&P 500 rose almost 8%. As always, we analyze historical market performance in preparing for events like government shutdowns, which will undoubtedly be a hot topic over the next two weeks. There are no guarantees, and every event is different, but history says the market takes shutdowns in stride.Interest Rate DecisionThe Federal Reserve will meet this week and make their announcement about the current rate policy. The market fully expects no action and for the Fed Funds Rate to remain at a high-end level of 5.5%. The next meeting will be on November 1st. The Fed has spoken a lot about how they will be very data-dependent in their decisions. We’re at a critical inflection point where we’ve seen inflation bottom in July but increase in the last two inflation reports. Is this just an anomaly caused by potential increases in oil, or is this a trend that the Fed needs to keep an eye on? This is happening at a time when the data may stop due to a shutdown. When the government shuts down, most people don’t notice, and the reason for that is that the market doesn’t have an impact. Most people besides us don’t notice that government reports like inflation and jobs don’t come out during the shutdown. This time may be different, with the Fed noticing very much that the government is shut down. If that important CPI report that we are supposed to get in mid-October, or the jobs data in early October does not come out, what data will there be for them to make their very important interest rate decision? This is something the Federal Reserve will have to watch closely, which is why this is such an important pivot point. Our research partners, Strategas, looked over 2,000 years of economic history, and in those 2,000 years across 24 countries, they found 62 instances of higher prices or inflation. Of those 62 instances, only eight saw prices go up and then come back down and stay down. Every other instance, they saw prices rise, come down, and then back up again for at least a second, maybe even a third wave. The Federal Reserve wants to keep on that because they do not want that second wave to come. We saw prices come down, then saw a tiny hitch up. Does that hitch continue, and are we looking at a second wave? That’s something the Fed very much wants to keep from happening. If they don’t have the data to support that, what are they going to be relying their decision on? We’re going to watch this closely, and the markets will start watching very closely as we get close, not just to the next Fed meeting, but those traditional data releases.Consumer StressThe Consumer Stress Indicator measures food at home, mortgage rates, and gasoline prices. They lump them all together and get a number. For this cycle, we peaked at 24 on the Consumer Stress Indicator, which is high. It’s come down steadily down to 14%. We’re starting to moderate that decline, but 14% is still about 40% higher than the indicator average throughout the 2010s. Right now, we’re at 14%, which is good. Do we continue to moderate back down to that 8% number or flatten out? That will be interesting to see since we have many headwinds that the consumer is facing. Gasoline prices are now positive year-over-year for the first time in seven months. At the beginning of the year, gas prices showed some substantial improvement for the consumer, but now they’re coming back up. The amount of workers on strike in the United States has gone up. We have many factors to consider when it comes to consumer stress. One interesting statistic that lumps in with the Consumer Stress Indicator is the chart in this video that shows Consumer Pain by city. Miami has consistently been at the top; however, Detroit overtook them at 10.7%. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward with the new strike and something we will keep an eye on.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Shutdowns and Stress first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Stay informed on the latest updates from Secure Act 2.0 with this week’s educational episode. In this episode, Jason Hatley breaks down some of the new rules, such as RMD age changes, and provides insights on how they could affect your Financial Blueprint. Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager […]
The post Secure Act 2.0: What’s New for 2023 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Oil Rig Counts Last week marked the tenth consecutive week where the oil rig count in the US didn’t go up. In fact, it has pulled back. The total number of rigs in the US is now 106 off of its all-time high, but why is that important? We’ve seen an increase in the price […]
The post Pullbacks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
History of SeptemberGoing back to 1950, September has historically been the worst month for the stock market and the only month of the year where both the average and median returns are negative. September also has the lowest positivity rate, meaning only 43.8% of the time is the market up in September. There’s much disagreement around why that is. There’s some thought that when people return from summer vacations, they want to right-size their portfolios; therefore, some trading goes on. There’s also the consideration that people use this time to get their taxes in order ahead of the New Year. There’s a lot of talk about consumer spending picking up as people take money out of the market to pay off any debts from vacation, school, and other things that might come up in the fourth quarter. So, whatever the reason is, it does seem to be consistent and produces lower-than-average returns. Now, this obviously isn’t a guarantee of what will happen, but it seems consistent and something we are watching.TechnologyWe continue to see the impact of higher interest rates on the market. One sector we want to talk about is the technology sector, which has been volatile over the past year. Historically, technology has been a sector that has underperformed in rising-rate environments. During the second half of last year and early this year, the technology sector exhibited a relatively strong inverse correlation to interest rates. Technology stocks traded down as interest rates increased, which was typical behavior in previous market patterns. However, the move in rates from the low threes to the low fours during May-July of this year (based on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield) was uniquely accompanied by technology strength. So, we saw that technology showed strength despite rising rates due to the enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence. But, as the enthusiasm around AI started to dissipate in August, we saw the tech sector underperform a bit as rate sensitivity returned. This scenario is one example of how unique the past 12 months have been in the market and how interest rates and artificial intelligence have changed certain aspects of the stock and bond markets. We think this will continue to cause overall market choppiness, especially in the tech sector, and will continue to keep an eye on it.The ConsumerThe consumer makes up around two-thirds of the economy, so it is important to always pay attention to it. Back-to-school season is a great time to see how the consumers are doing. Around 53% of back-to-school shoppers plan on using debit cards this year compared to 45% last year. Credit card interest rates are up, so it’s interesting to see that many people are choosing to take money straight out of their bank account with a debit card instead of going with the higher interest rate of credit cards and then paying it off. Since January 2020, overall spending is up around 19.5%, especially in the entertainment, retail, and recreation space. Grocery and transportation are only 15% and 13% higher, below the overall average. We’ve talked a lot about inflation with gas and food prices, but overall, grocery and transportation are up quite as much as some other sectors. It is interesting to see how the consumers are doing and adjusting to increased rates and life post-COVID.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post September Blues? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is […]
The post Debt, Drugs, and Driveways first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Ty Miller takes a deep dive into inflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, and deflation. He explains what each of them means and how they impact the economy differently. Don’t miss this enlightening discussion! Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment […]
The post Understanding the Four Types of Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Choppy Conditions Major market indexes ended lower for the third straight week as the 10-year Treasury yield remained near a 16-year high. Investors believe the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance even with declining inflation. The S&P 500 was down 2.11% last week and is down 4.06% in the past month as the market has […]
The post Stubborn Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Corporate Earnings In a world where the market has a lot of negative news and uncertainty to digest, it’s important to stay focused on one of the biggest drivers of stock price movement: corporate earnings. A chart in this episode reveals the percentage of corporations beating earnings estimates in the second quarter of 2019. Also, […]
The post Zombie Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Bond Valuations We’ve been getting many questions about bonds and interest rates recently, so we wanted to give an update on bond prices relative to changes in interest rates. Bonds are an essential piece in a diversified investment strategy, and the best way to provide an update on bonds is by sharing data specific to […]
The post Inflation and the 1970s first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this educational episode to hear Ashley Page talk about the global economic impact that AI could have over the next ten years as well as what pros and cons there might be surrounding the development of artificial intelligence. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi […]
The post Artificial Intelligence and the Global Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market Strength We continue to get questions and comments from clients who are surprised at how well the market has performed this year and are asking if it can continue considering that at the beginning of the year, some economists expected the economy to be in a recession by this point. One of the measures […]
The post Don’t Hold Your Breadth first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Trey Booth discusses interest paid to investors from money market accounts and explains how those funds could be used to stimulate the economy. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team […]
The post Money Market Stimulus first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Looking for a Break The Fed will be looking at a lot of data this week, which will be used to drive their interest rate decision. Many market participants expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25 taking the Fed funds rate from 5.25% to 5.5%. This is widely anticipated and likely already priced in […]
The post Recession Watch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation The top-line inflation number came in better than expected and going in the right direction. This is the one-year anniversary of when inflation peaked last year at 9%. This is a year-over-year number, which means inflation is 3% off of 9%. With inflation moving from 9% to 3%, that’s still a fast move in […]
The post Unique Market Connections first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Ty Miller go over the different types of annuities and explain the importance of each one. Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the […]
The post Annuity Basics first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Rolling Recession The phrase rolling recession is relatively new in economics, but it’s gaining popularity. The U.S. has been experiencing a rolling recession over the last few years that could continue but not an economy-wide one. If you think back to last year, some parts of the economy were in a very deep recession, but […]
The post Rolling Recession and Rate Hikes first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Mark Hume goes over several vital things you need to know about your estate plan, no matter what stage of life you’re in. Watch or listen to this episode to learn where to get started with choosing the executor of your estate and more. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice […]
The post Major Decisions for Your Estate Plan first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Student Loan Forgiveness vs. Inflation There has been a lot of news coverage of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Biden Administration’s plan to forgive student loan debt. However, there hasn’t been much coverage on how that will impact inflation. Inflation occurs when demand is up, and the amount of supply is down. […]
The post Stress Test first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Trey Booth and Ty Miller go over some of the stock market’s main indexes and the differences between them. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller Associate Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment […]
The post Stock Indexes Explained first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Unrest in Russia There was an effective attempted coup in Russia over the weekend with the Wagner group. At one point, they were marching on Moscow. However, when the markets opened today, this topic seemed quelled entirely. What it did, however, was create more questions. This war between Russia and Ukraine has been in a […]
The post Russian Roulette first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Greg Powell and Mark Hume discuss artificial intelligence and how it could play a future role in the finance industry. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi […]
The post Will AI Replace Human Advisors? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation and The Fed Coming into the Fed’s interest rate decision, most market participants expected the Fed not to raise rates, and those expectations were met. What made this meeting so important, and why did the market react the way it did? It’s because there’s still the unknown of whether or not this is a […]
The post Skip or Pause first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear the Operations Team discuss Required Minimum Distributions and how the team at Fi Plan Partners will educate you about RMD changes and ensure the process to satisfy your RMD is streamlined and effortless for you. Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory […]
The post How to Satisfy Your RMD first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Global Central Banks A lot is happening this week, but the market-moving event will be the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. For the first time in 15 months, the Fed is expected to skip, not pause, but skip raising interest rates. Even though inflation remains higher than what the Fed wants, and after a big […]
The post Fed Surprise? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Mortgage rates have spiked since last year, but how does that impact buyers, and how much their monthly payments are? Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Bobby Norman review current mortgage rates and compare them to the highs and lows from 1971 to now. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email […]
The post Mortgage Rates first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Economic Tug of WarAs investment managers, we look at the good and the bad. Last week in our Memorial Day vlog, we discussed the positives we’re seeing, such as positive leading economic indicators and an improving consumer stress indicator. We also saw a great jobs report as the economy continues to show incredible resiliency. We look at everything as we manage market volatility, and right now, there is a tug-of-war going on. We’re seeing new year-to-date highs when we look at the current technical setup of the S&P 500. That’s great news, but what concerns us about the current rally is that it’s been very concentrated. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks exceed their 200-day moving average. This says the market breadth could be stronger. Chipmaker stocks, technology, and the S&P 500 were positive in May, but there are several different asset classes and sectors that were in the red, which shows the underlying weakness of the overall market. Another concern that we have is that debt charge-offs on credit cards are increasing. What’s concerning is that we have begun to see a rise in charge-offs before the unemployment rate increases. Charge-offs are headed towards the Covid highs in short order. The next area of concern is with banks. We’ve seen a slight increase in the number of problem banks, which increased to 43. We’re observing banking pressure as past-due real estate loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties jumped by 20% to 16.9 billion dollars during the first quarter, which is the highest since the height of the pandemic. So, there is a tug-of-war between the positives of a resilient economy and certain areas’ underlying weaknesses.The Debt CeilingThe debt ceiling was passed and has been something we’ve talked about all year. We were right when we said it would come down on the wire. All the necessary steps have been taken and look to be going into effect, which is overall good news. This would be a debt ceiling suspension until 2025 and let the parties of the following year’s presidential election handle it from there. That’s an important step the government was looking at as opposed to just a temporary suspension. This is a full-time raise, but it will give us at least through the next two years and roughly a trillion dollars of spending cuts over the next ten years. About $200 billion of that will come in the next two years. Student loan repayments will start again in September. This will be a hit to GDP because there is less discretionary spending. The defense did not get cut; that was a big thing fought over, and life science tools did not get cut. The net result of this is, we’re thinking, a bit slower of an economy with less liquidity. Things will be less liquid as the government issues about a trillion dollars of bonds from the economy. How the Treasury General Account and the S&P 500 line up performance-wise will be a little different of an environment moving forward with how the spending cuts are enacted. Overall, this is good news that we got something passed. We will continue to watch how the market adjusts to this news.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Headline Market Strength vs. Underlying Weakness first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Greg Powell and Jason Hatley review the recent law changes to college saving plans and how they might affect you moving forward.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS
Senior Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Secure Act 2.0: New Laws for 529 Plans first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Economic GrowthThere’s been a lot of recent talk about a pending recession or an economic slowdown, so we wanted to go over a recent report showing economic activity in the US. The report indicates that the economy is growing at the fastest pace in 13 months. The Purchasing Managers Index deposit outlook is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index. We follow this report because it is an important leading economic indicator that provides valuable insight into the state of the US economy, specifically the manufacturing sector. This indicator hit 54.5% in May, which came in better than expected and was the highest in 13 months. Any reading above 50% on this indicator represents expansion, and it currently being over that is great news and shows economic growth. However, for investors hoping for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes, this report might pose a problem because of how a growing economy could lead to higher inflation. We will continue to watch this and how positive economic reports might impact the market.Consumer Stress IndicatorWe’ve been tracking the Consumer Stress Indicator that was created by our research friends at Strategas. It takes food, inflation, mortgage rates, and gasoline inflation and compiles a common indicator to show how much stress the consumers are under. The bad news is that we’ve been over 10% for 20 consecutive months. That’s the longest stretch going back to 1970. The good news is while we’re still elevated, we are way off the low of 23.6% from earlier this year. We’re currently sitting right around 17%. That’s partially due to lower mortgage rates and largely due to falling gasoline prices as well as a little reduction in food inflation. This is a great sign for the consumer as we head into the summer driving season. We don’t want to be overconfident in this because, as we’ve mentioned before, there is a risk of potentially higher gas prices due to cuts in OPEC production. There will be an increase in demand and a cut in supply which typically leads to higher prices. This current environment may not be a permanent relief of consumer stress. On the other hand, mortgage rates have started to pick back up with a risk of higher interest rates. There’s a chance that they may not be cutting rates because the economy is doing so well. That pushes interest rates back up. You want a good economy, but that good economy comes with higher interest rates which then can cause consumer stress. It’s a delicate balance we’re dealing with right now, but something to be thankful for while we get it. We’ll take low prices now. It just may not be permanent.The Debt Ceiling DebateThe debt ceiling decision is expected to be made in early June. They’re shooting for June first, but our research partners are telling us that it may be June seventh or eighth. June first is an encouraging sign that they’re coming to the negotiating table early. Hopefully, we can get something passed soon. Once it is raised, it’ll be a big change. Right now, we have the Fed doing quantitative tightening. They paused that for the time being, and we expect them to pick back up. The Treasury general account, where Janet Yellen operates, is pumping liquidity into the system. However, the balance in their account is down to roughly $68 billion. That’s a level where the June date comes into play and the point where the government will look into issuing one trillion dollars’ worth of treasuries. What that is going to do to rates is unsure, but what it is going to do is take the liquidity out of the system. When they issue bonds, people must pay for those bonds with money which they’re collecting at that point. That’s going to change the market attitude and something we’re going to look at going forward to try to navigate. As the debt ceiling comes across, they’re going to have to up the treasury general account from $68 billion to at least $500 billion, if not more.Treasury General AccountWe run a deficit in the US. It’s like the saying that you borrow money from Peter to pay Paul. That’s how the government works. When we hit the debt ceiling, we can no longer borrow from Peter to pay Paul, but we’re still paying Paul. The Treasury is just putting money into Paul’s bank account without taking money out of Peter’s bank account. When they raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury goes back and tells Paul they need all the money they’ve given him. They then take the money they would have taken from Paul out of his bank account to refund the money they gave to Peter. For the last six months, we’ve had nothing but treasury money going into the banking system and the economy without a counterbalance. Once we raise the debt ceiling, it comes back into balance. What happens in the market is unknown, but it is an extensive rebalancing of liquidity. We got down to $68 billion and took money back from Paul, and we see the rapid rise of what we expect to happen to refund that general account.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Blessings and Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The term GDP is widely mentioned in our vlogs and on the news. In this week’s educational episode, Ty Miller discusses what GDP stands for and why it’s an essential component of our economy.
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post What is GDP? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation Impact on YieldsWe continue conversing with investors interested in current bonds and savings account yields. Because of that, we wanted to give an update on where yields stand and also talk about real rates of return, including looking at inflation. Bonds have always been an essential part of a diversified strategy. Still, we want to point out that when looking at bond returns and, more specifically, yields, investors need to look at real rates of return that include taking current yields and subtracting the current inflation rate. The main point is that while having a better return on yield-oriented investments like bonds and other fixed income is excellent, we, as investment managers, look at the total return. Inflation is causing some current real rates on government bonds to be negative. This is why keeping exposure to stocks is important to longer-term investors. Over the past 30 years, the average real rate of return on ten-year treasury bonds is 1.4%, while the average return of the S&P 500 stock index is 9.8% in the same 30-year period. Therefore, it’s important to look at total real rates of return. Unfortunately, for treasury bond investors, higher interest rates have been unable to overcome the impact of inflation on real yields over the past several years. While yields are not the only return aspect of bonds, they are important. The real yield on the 10-year treasury bond has been negative at the end of the last four consecutive years and remains negative today. However, there were eight observations since 2008 where inflation was two percent, or lower and real yields were positive in seven of those eight year-end snapshots.Money MarketWe’ve all seen the news about the regional banking crisis, and we’ve talked about how yields and the rapid rise in rates have affected the regional banks. In addition, there has been a rise in money market funds, which has taken deposits away from banks. Since the rate hike cycle started last March, bank deposits have seen about one trillion dollars of outflows. An estimated $750 billion has gone to money market funds because they yield just under 5%. The savings rates at banks are about one percent or lower. There are CD options, but money market accounts give you more liquidity and allow you to be flexible to take advantage of opportunities in the market. Of course, their rates do go up and down where a CD is locked in. However, if you see those rates going low, the flexibility to jump into the market is beneficial.Wrapping Up Earnings SeasonAround 94% of companies have reported earnings, and 77% have beaten expectations. This is an excellent sign of strength and is something we like to see. In Q3 of last year, we saw earnings top out, and we are just under what Q3 of last year was. However, while these expectations have been lowered, a 77% beat rate on earnings is encouraging and isn’t in the news right now due to the talk about the debt ceiling and rates. This topic ultimately matters to stocks and where the market goes from here.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Money Market Fund – An investment in the Fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the Fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the Fund.
There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Bond yields are subject to change. Certain call or special redemption features may exist, which could impact yield.
Certificates of Deposit are FDIC insured and offer a fixed rate of return if held to maturity. Brokered CDs sold prior to maturity in the secondary market may result in a loss of principal due to fluctuations in the interest rate or lack of liquidity. Brokered CDs are registered with the Depository Trust Corp. (“DTC”). Brokered CDs with step-down and/or call provisions may be less favorable than traditional CDs without these features.
Stock investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Winning with Interest Rates? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
There has been a lot of talk about moving manufacturing jobs back to the US. Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Trey Booth give an update on that situation and how it impacts the economy.Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Reshoring of US Manufacturing Jobs first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Will History Repeat Itself?There has been a lot of negative headline news about the slowing economy, high but falling inflation, as well as the fight about the debt ceiling fight. Today, we are pointing out something we discussed last year: market performance 12 months after a midterm election. In this episode, you will see the chart we showed on our vlogs numerous times last year. Here is an update on where the market stands relative to history and this chart. Keep in mind, the average one-year gain for the S&P 500 following a midterm election is 14.5%, with the index up 18 out of 18 such periods going back to 1950. The positive news is that stocks are right on track. As we passed the halfway point, The S&P 500 is up just over 7% since November 8, 2022. Another gain of just under 7% over the next six months would put the index at its average post-midterm election gain of 14.5% and secure its 19th consecutive gain in the 12 months after midterm. As always, no guarantees, but we like historical relevance. As we get closer to the 2024 election, it is possible for the policy to be less unfriendly than it is today, which explains why this market pattern has historically worked so well after the midterm elections. The current administration doesn’t want to campaign on a weak economy or a bear market. Keep that in mind as we watch to see if history repeats itself.Consumer ImpactsWe got some good news from the Consumer Price Index report last week: inflation was up only 4.96% year-over-year. To the consumers buying the goods that make up this number, a 5% growth rate in cost year-over-year doesn’t feel good. The good thing is that it’s on a downward trajectory. Transport, the cost of moving things, has the best year-over-year number in the report, at only 0.30%. However, what is concerning as we look under the hood, is that the month-over-month, Transport is the highest at 1.15%. This is the time of year when transport costs are most noticed by the US consumer due to it being travel season. It hits the consumer’s pocketbooks because they are spending more money on fuel. The money you must spend on fuel takes away from what you could have spent money on during your vacation, such as dining, hotels, and other things that make the trip worth taking. It’s usually not the traveling that’s the fun part. It’s the time you spend once you get there. In May, June, July, and August of 2022, the US consumer consumed 48 billion gallons of gas. That is a staggering number when you think about it. When you hear about just a one-penny move up or down, the average price of a gallon of gas hits the US consumer to the tune of $480 million. That’s $480 million just for a one-penny move. If you look at a dollar move, that’s $48 billion that the US consumer can’t spend once they get to where they’re going as opposed to spending once they get there. That’s a real negative stimulus to the economy if gas prices go up. However, if they go down, that’s a huge stimulus for the travel, leisure, and restaurant industries, spreading out across the economy. We will be watching throughout these upcoming travel months to see if we can keep fuel prices at least flat, year-over-year. Right now, it’s looking challenging with the recent OPEC cut.The S&P 500The market is up year-to-date, with the top ten largest companies in the S&P 500 responsible for 81% of that gain. A lot of times, if this number is over 100%, it is because the market is down. It’s a flight to quality. It’s not over 100% right now, but we still see that flight to quality. This week’s headline was about how Apple is now bigger than UK’s GDP. The UK has one of the largest stock markets in the world, and Apple has surpassed it, meaning that just Apple alone is bigger than the United Kingdom. Apple and Microsoft together make up about 14.5% of our stock market index. That’s more than energy and materials combined. With the current situation with regional banks, JP Morgan is now bigger than every regional bank in the country combined. These are not recommendations, only facts that interest us as companies get bigger. This is something for us to keep an eye on as we see this flight to quality.The Legacy of Mr. JP MorganIn 1908, we had a significant financial crisis where JP Morgan and his bank manhandled the economy. During that time, we did not have a Federal Reserve. In 1912, JP Morgan died, and because of his death, newspapers asked what the country would do without him. Only after he died in 1913 did the United States implement the Federal income tax to help support a downturn as they had seen in 1908 and 1909. They also started the Federal Reserve because JP Morgan wasn’t around. Over 100 years later, the ghost of JP Morgan still lives as the bank is now bigger than all the other regional banks combined.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Where Are We Going? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Ashley Page talk about the four main factors the Federal Reserve always considers when establishing interest rates.Click the link above to learn more about this highly requested topic.Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Federal Reserve and Interest Rates first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rates and The FedAs expected, the Fed has announced its tenth rate hike in thirteen months. The numbers weren’t surprising, but the words they used were. Before, they were saying that they anticipated further tightening would be necessary, but now they’re saying that they are determining whether or not further rate hikes will be necessary. The market took that as the Fed is done raising rates, but what does that mean for returns? The data shows that there’s no longer an expectation for higher rates but a possibility of future rate cuts. Many historical reports show that when the Fed pauses or pivots, it’s positive. On average, returns after the last Fed rate hike and to the first rate cut, the market is higher by five percent. However, average is a loaded word in this case. The chart shown in this episode shows the market’s returns after the last Fed rate hike and before the first rate cut. One thing that stands out is that there is not a single data point that is anywhere close to where the average is. The average is in the middle at five percent. In 2006-2007, there was a 20% increase, but in 1974, 1980, 1981, and 1984, the market fell. This is a situation where average is like having one hand in the oven and the other hand in the freezer; on average, you feel great, but average isn’t what anyone’s experiencing. You’re either doing great with markets up, or markets are down; there is no in-between on these data points. What’s concerning is that our research indicates that the current environment is a lot more like 1974, 1980, and 1984. The difference is that back then when the Fed paused, they were still dealing with inflation due to external factors. Even though we are working towards correcting inflation, enemies have the ability to shock our economy and cause inflation to rise just like they have historically. We analyze historical and current data, not only looking at the numbers but also watching the words. How things are worded is significant, and all of these factors are why we’ve stayed defensive until some of this pans out.The Debt CeilingOne upcoming event that we are keeping an eye on is the conversation around the debt ceiling. We started watching this a couple of weeks ago when the House Republicans tried to pass something to get the negotiating started. With only a 50/50 shot of getting anything through, they were able to pass something by a mineral majority to start negotiations, which was an essential first step. Tomorrow, President Biden is meeting with House and Senate members to discuss the debt ceiling further. There will likely not be a deal for a few weeks; however, due to the recent tax revenue numbers, this debt ceiling date, originally expected to be August or September, is being pushed up into June. This gives them only a couple of weeks to discuss this. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised by the time the due date hits, there is no reason to panic. We have enough cash flow to pay interest payments on important things. You could see the volatility pick up as talks go on and as the due date approaches. One question that keeps coming up is how this be funded. The Treasury General Account program supports some markets with liquidity from their reserves. That liquidity must be replenished when the debt ceiling rises, but how will they do that? Typically, they take from bank reserves, but that is not an option because banks need to be in better standing to do that. Therefore, they will have to find other funding methods. It will be important to watch and see what words they use when they announce how and when they will do this. It will be imperative because it will lead us to what happens next for the market.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post It’s All In the Wording first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, you will learn about the newly enacted age delay rules for Required Minimum Distributions set forth by the Secure 2.0 Act. Watch as Mark Hume explains how these changes might affect you and your retirement accounts.Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post New RMD Rules for 2023 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Banking and The FedThe Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will be meeting this week and announcing their decision on interest rates. The market expects they will raise rates by 25 base points, with that being the last. They will be moving the Federal Funds Rate from a high end of five to five and a quarter, putting it above the current inflation rate of five. This is something we’ve been anticipating since the Fed started hiking rates. They needed to get the Fed Fund Rate above the inflation rate before they could pause. Now that the market has priced that in, it won’t be what the Fed does that is important; it will be what they say they’re going to do. Do they pause for a while and see where this goes? The way they’re trying to reduce inflation is with two tools. One is what they’re doing, which is raising interest rates. The other tool is their balance sheet. They expanded their balance sheet and bought around nine trillion dollars in assets during the pandemic, which was highly inflationary. They did that to try and stop the potential collapse of the financial system during that time. They had to start reducing that balance sheet and had been doing so throughout 2022. However, once again, they had to reverse course and put money back into the system when the Silicon Valley Bank failed in March. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet went from roughly $8.3 trillion to $8.7 trillion in the weeks following the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank. Why is that important right now? It supports the banking system, but putting liquidity back into the system is inflationary. Over the weekend, we got the news that another California bank, First Republic Bank, is going into receivership by the FDIC, and JP Morgan will take them over. This is not a recommendation of either bank. The news of another large West Coast bank failing will muddy the waters on what the Fed can do. The Fed would like to have its balance sheet drop, but it couldn’t do it last time because it had to come in and save the banking system. Are they going to have to do that again? With this happening so close to the Fed meeting, they’re most likely going to get a lot of questions about this. It will be very telling what the Fed Chairperson says they’re looking at now that they have another West Coast Bank in receivership. This is interesting timing and much to review for the Federal Reserve. Of course, the all-important press conference will be where we get all the information.Market HistoryWith the Federal Reserve expected to raise rates another quarter of a percent this week, the question is, will they announce this is the last rate hike? We decided to look back at how the market has historically performed after the Fed paused rate hikes. We found that the S&P 500 has been up an average of 13%, six out of the eight past times, one year after the Fed paused its rate hiking. While this might give investors a lot to look forward to, it is essential to know the details. Unfortunately, the two negative years, 1974 and 2000, are similar to what the market and economy are experiencing today with higher inflation. So, while buying stocks has worked in most years after the Fed pauses, we are more cautious this year because of the higher inflationary environment that has led to lower returns in previous cycles. We will be watching the Fed closely as things unfold.Income MigrationOn Thursday, we got the official income migration numbers for the Great COVID Migration that occurred during the pandemic, and it was bigger than we thought. This shows the number of people moving from high-tax states with big cities, such as New York and California, into low- or no-income tax states like Florida and Texas. Florida added $63 billion worth of income during this time. Palm Beach County alone added $11.4 billion, more than every state other than Florida and Texas. Meanwhile, on the other side, California lost $47 billion, and $44 billion left New York, with Manhattan alone losing $31 billion. Alabama was a net gainer on these reports. During this time, the ten lowest-income tax states added about $100 billion of income, and the ten highest-income tax states lost about $100 billion, making it basically a direct trade-off. That pace doubled the pre-COVID pace. This becomes a bigger deal when this migration includes high-net-worth individuals. In fact, the average tax return moving to Florida was $80,000 more than the return for a person leaving. This could change the landscape of schools, employment, company headquarters, etc. Will California, New York, and other high-income tax states decide to lower taxes, or will they continue to try to fight the battle? This also makes the Fed’s job harder because California and New York are much slower-growing economies than Florida and Texas right now. How does the Federal Reserve treat one state differently? You would think they would want to stimulate the California economy while also slowing down the Florida economy. It makes the Fed’s job a lot harder when the returns of states are doing so differently. It makes the threading of the needle of inflation much more difficult.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fund Flows first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation has caused many Americans to adjust their budget and spending habits, but how has it impacted investment returns? In this week’s educational episode, Bobby Norman goes over the risk of inflation in investing and how it might affect you.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
The post Inflation and Investment Returns first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market HistoryThis will be one of the busiest weeks for the first quarter earnings season, and we want to address the concerns around expectations for earnings growth to be negative for the second quarter in a row. We follow corporate earnings very closely as earnings are an important long-term driver of stock prices. However, the S&P 500 has held up in the short term after two consecutive quarters of negative profit declines. Going back to 1948, the S&P 500 average price performance following a second straight quarter of year-over-year earnings decline, the market is up three, six, and twelve months after. Six months after two consecutive quarters of profit declines, history shows the market was up on average by 5.9%. It was up 7.4% in periods when you take out economic recessions. History says that as long as investors have balanced and diversified allocations, they shouldn’t get caught up in the doom and gloom around earnings season. Another interesting historical fact about the market is that when the S&P 500 gained more than 7% in the first quarter of a year like it did this year, the S&P 500 has never had a negative full-year return. In fact, it had an average gain of 23%. As always, there are no guarantees, but this historical data on the market says that investors should remain calm regarding mixed earnings results and other concerning headlines.Spending CutsPolitics always cause some emotion in the markets, and this week will be no different as it’s a big week for earnings and the House of Republicans. The House Republicans unveiled their plan to try and pass a bill to vote on for $4 trillion worth of spending cuts while raising the debt ceiling. If this bill passes the House, it is unlikely to be fully enacted. There will likely be some changes; however, this is an essential first step in these discussions. If they cannot pass it, the leverage will shift to the Senate, where they’ll have their chance to look it over and make changes. With tax revenue numbers being a little lower this year, the debt ceiling day might move up into June, and because of that, it’s important to get this first step through. The House is pushing for it to go through this week, as they see this June day becoming a possibility. There is no concern for default now, but this would be an essential first step to make that scenario even less likely. These situations are always emotional for the markets; however, we will continue to look at the facts and update you as we navigate them.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Seven Percent Gauge first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Ty Miller talk about what correlation means and how it relates to portfolio diversification.Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post What is Correlation? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Debt CeilingThis week’s market-moving event is around the debt ceiling debate. Investors will watch carefully as the House Speaker gives his speech at the New York Stock Exchange. We expect him to call for a spending cut as part of the debt ceiling conversation. When we have these types of events, we like to see how the market has historically reacted to similar events. We looked back to 2011 when the House Speaker spoke to the New York Economic Club. What’sInterestingly, the price action of the S&P 500 this year seems almost identical to the pattern we saw in 2011. At this exact point in 2011, we understood that we had a bigger problem. The same became true in conversations today around the debt ceiling. Now that the policymakers are starting to focus on the matter, the debt ceiling debate will likely cause uncertainty in the markets and is something we will be observing over the next few months. We will continue to keep the viewers updated on the markets because, as always, politics do matter, and it’s getting close to that time, with the debt ceiling will be more of a conversation.Inflation DataIn last Monday’s episode, we were looking forward to the inflation report because that has been the data point that the market has moved off for the previous twelve-plus months. That report came out with results better than expected. Year-over-year, the Consumer Price Index grew by 5% to beat expectations of 5.4%. More importantly, this reading puts CPI right in line with where the Fed Funds Rate is, which is 5%. We’ve been looking forward to that point since late last year. We were surprised that the markets didn’t rally after seeing that data point. We had to look under the hood to see what would cause the market to not take this as a positive. We found out that it’s likely because the volatile food and energy sectors, along with used car prices, drove CPI down. We are happy that motor oil is down 17% year-over-year, which is a significant drop. However, OPEC’s announcement about major cuts in oil production starting in May could have been what the market is looking through too. The market may see oil prices down now, but the reality is that prices won’t stay down. Used vehicle prices were down 11%, which is phenomenal, but new vehicles were up 6%. Those weren’t consistent indicators, so that may be why the market took a very positive inflation number, saw it flat line with the Fed Funds Rate at 5%, and took it in stride. Regardless, it’s positive to see inflation come down symmetrically, as we predicted late last year. This is something we’re watching and taking as a positive sign for what we hope to be long-term growth.Market History“Sell in May and go away” is a popular saying, but it hasn’t held up very well over the last 20 years. In the previous 20 years, there have been only three instances where the market was negative from May to October. The average return was about 4% from different sectors, not one outperformer. So, the saying to sell in May might not have as much relevance. One interesting tidbit we saw was that this saying came about when the US was more industrialized, and factories would shut down for a month over the summer to allow people to go on vacation while kids were out of school. The difference now is that society is more digitalized, and people aren’t taking the summer months off. Earnings won’t be affected because companies aren’t shutting down. This is probably why we don’t see that dip anymore. This is historical data regarding past performance, so there is no guarantee, but we plan on watching to see what happens this year as we approach May.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Debt Up, Fuel Down first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Join us for this week’s educational episode, where Greg Powell sits down with our newest team member, Makenzie Phillips, to discuss her role as Operations Specialist and what she enjoys the most about working with clients as they pursue a life that is Better, Richer, Fuller.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Makenzie Phillips
Operations Specialist
Email Makenzie Phillips here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Client Experience first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
JobsThe jobs report on Friday showed that 236,000 jobs were added to the workforce. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from the previous 3.6%, and the labor participation rate increased to 62.6%. Labor force participation is the number of people working or actively looking for work. This is an important number because an economy can only grow by increasing output and efficiencies or having a larger working base. We’re finally starting to see our labor force come back from being depressed due to the pandemic. From January to now, two million people have been added to the labor force, and the number of job openings has fallen by roughly half a million. Back in January, there were around 1.75 job openings to unemployed people. Now it’s down to approximately 1.65 job openings to unemployed people. The lower it is, the better. Another point regarding the jobs report is that average hourly earnings growth was 4.2% year-over-year. A 4% increase in your pay is excellent; however, inflation has increased to around 6%. Taking 6% inflation and adding 3.5% unemployment gives you a Misery Index of about 9.5%. We’re watching that closely because it shows the amount of pain that people may be experiencing in their jobs and their lifestyles within this economy. It’s a great gauge and allows us to see if the consumer will move forward with spending money or if they will retreat, as well as other things taking place in the economy.InflationInflation has been a headline that the US consumer has felt. You can see it when you drive by gas stations and go to the grocery store, and we see it in consumer spending. The way the market looks at inflation, though, is how it relates to what the Federal Reserve will do. Will the Fed have to continue to raise interest rates, or will they pause? Historically, the Federal Reserve has stopped raising interest rates when the Fed Funds Rate is higher than the inflation rate. Today, the Fed Funds Rate is at 5%, and the last inflation reading was 6%. The next Fed meeting will be May 3rd, but we will see updated inflation data on Wednesday. Expectations are for the Consumer Price Index to drop to 5.2%, close to 5%. If that number aligns with expectations or is better, the Fed might pause raising interest rates. If it stays higher, the Fed may continue to be aggressive. Wages are up over 4%, which is an excellent raise, but if prices are going higher than that, that’s where you get the risk of stagflation. Stagflation is when prices are higher than the economy can grow. It’s not a positive sign overall, but it could be a positive for corporate America. If prices are rising at 5%, but employment is rising at 4%, there is a chance that companies are pocketing that 1.5% spread. These are the most significant data points we will see before the Fed meets on May 3rd. We must watch the data closely to see if we can bring the Misery Index down with these two data points.Corporate AmericaWith current concerns in the market being around bank strength and some companies announcing layoffs, we are analyzing the current balance sheet of corporations to see if the concerns are legitimate. One number we like to look at is the current cash equivalent holdings of the companies that compromise the S&P 500. On a chart shown in this episode, you will see a quarterly snapshot of the total cash and cash equivalent holdings of the companies comprising the S&P 500, a barometer of financial strength. Seeing the S&P 500 Index cash holdings suggests that America’s largest companies appear to be on solid footing, in our opinion. Total cash and cash equivalents fell from $1.89 trillion in Q4 2020 to $1.58 trillion in Q4 2022. Still, the decline may be related to share repurchases and dividend distributions, in our view. Stock buybacks and dividend distributions for companies in the S&P 500 Index set record highs in 2022, coming in at $922.7 billion and $564.6 billion, respectively. Furthermore, companies will often utilize cash as they engage in M&A and invest in property, plant, and equipment, among other capital expenditures. The record-setting pace of recent stock buybacks and dividend payments could be viewed as a vote of confidence by corporations in their ability to weather current economic headwinds. Time will tell, but broadly speaking, companies in the S&P 500 seem well-capitalized and gives us hope that the market can remain stabilized through the current noise in the economy.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Misery Index and Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Trey Booth, Chief Investment Officer at Fi Plan Partners, explains the difference between the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC).Watch or listen as he goes over how the SIPC plays a role in protecting investors’ assets at securities firms.Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post SIPC Asset Protection first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Historical AprilMarch was volatile, but seasonality patterns prevailed, as stocks performed well in the last half of the month. As you can see in a chart shown in this episode, historical April seasonality trends suggest that last week’s positive momentum could continue. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has posted an average of 1.5% growth in April and has finished positive during the month 71% of the time. The first half of April is usually strong, with the first 12 trading days historically climbing 1.4%. While there are still concerns about the Federal Reserve slowing the economy down and the continued fallout from the banking crisis, the market is showing strength in a historically strong period of the year. Of course, there are no guarantees, but this positive development gives us hope that the strength seen last week can continue.Gas PricesIn a surprise announcement, OPEC recently said they were cutting oil production to nearly 1.2 million barrels daily. That’s in addition to the two million barrels they announced they were cutting back in October, along with the 500,000 barrels a day Russia announced that they are taking offline. Altogether, around 3% of the world’s oil production is coming offline. Saudi Arabia announced that the cut would go into effect in May, just in time for driving season here in the US. The summer driving season is when we use a large percentage of our annual gasoline usage, so oil prices immediately reacted this morning, reaching as high as $81 a barrel. Barrels were as low as $66 earlier in March, so oil markets responded quickly to this news. So, why would Saudi Arabia cut oil production and make a surprise announcement? Our research partners at Strategus put out a chart that helps explain what Saudi Arabia was looking at. It shows that each country in OPEC has a specific barrel price that they need to balance their budget. When we hear of oil prices, we think of companies and their cost per barrel and relate it to how much it is to get it out of the ground. Well, most of these OPEC countries run their entire country on oil, so this is what their beak-even is. This price is not on production but to balance their entire economy. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer, needs $67 a barrel to balance their budget. That’s in line with where we were in mid-March. So, this cut is more of a point of survival for them. They have to get their budget in line, so they must reduce their production to get prices back up. This is a significant change from 2014 to 2015, when the US was the swing producer, and Saudi Arabia was trying to cut oil production to boost prices. This didn’t have the same effect back then as it does now since the US is no longer the swing producer. We’re returning to an oil shock environment like the seventies, where when the OPEC countries speak, the market reacts immediately. It’s not set in stone, but we could see a rise in gas prices around May or June. This could be an early indicator that inflation may not be on the downward trajectory like we hoped and is something that we are internalizing here to project where interest rates, inflation, and the Fed may be going from here.Inflation and The FedMarch marked the one-year anniversary of the start of the Fed’s tightening cycle. This rapid tightening cycle has been the fastest since the 1980s. Coincidentally, since the early 1980s, this is the first time stocks haven’t been up in a 12-month period since the first rate hike was announced. So looking forward, what can we expect? In a chart shown in this episode, you will see that before the OPEC news, inflation was projected to come down enough to where the Fed could raise rates without actually raising rates. How do they do that? The Fed Funds Rate is expected to be 5%, but their next meeting isn’t scheduled until May. According to this chart, we are looking for a pause in rate hikes thanks to inflation coming down. Historically, we’ve seen a pause when the Fed Funds Rate is above the inflation number, not a rate cut, but at least a pause. We could see that as early as this month as long as the OPEC news doesn’t swing too much. It will be interesting to see how we move forward and if we can get inflation down enough. If rates plateau, that’ll help the consumer with mortgage payments, car payments, and other things.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Market Seasonality first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this episode to hear Ashley Page talk about the banking system and how it can have an impact on the overall economy.Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Banking and the Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Never Ending VolatilityRecently, we’ve been getting questions from clients regarding what seems like never-ending volatility in the market. Because of this, we wanted to share a chart with you, which you can see in the video for this episode, that shows fourteen of the past fifteen calendar years. From 2008 to 2022, the S&P 500 index endured no less than two negative total return months and as many as eight negative months in 2008. From 2008 through February 2023, the S&P 500 index endured a loss in 61 of the 182 months. The unique year was 2017, when at least one negative month didn’t occur. This data is important because even with the volatility seen since 2008, the S&P 500 has an annualized total return of 8.95%. Historically, volatility is the norm, and given the recent news around the banking sector and stubbornly high inflation, we could easily see further volatility. That said, stock prices don’t rise in a straight line, and investors will encounter turbulent times along the way.Long Term ImpactAll eyes were on the Fed Wednesday as they announced their decision to increase interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. As we discussed in our episode last week, this was widely expected. A few weeks ago, market participants expected a 0.50 percentage point hike. However, with the news about the banking sector, many expected that the Fed would pause rate hikes. Some participants believe that if the Fed had paused rate hikes, it would have been good for stocks, bonds, and the banking sector. So, why didn’t they pause, and what are they looking at that the rest of the market isn’t? The Fed appears to be more focused on inflation and avoiding stop-and-go monetary policy. They want to avoid this because that was the policy of the 1970s when inflation was rampant for almost a decade. On a chart shown in the video for this episode, you will see a blue line showing today’s Consumer Price Index and a red line showing the Consumer Price Index in the 1970s. These lines show that we are kind of tracking with the early seventies. The Fed doesn’t want to let up on inflation and allow it to go back up. If that happens, we’ll be fighting the same battle a few years down the road, and that is the risk of stop-and-go. It would be positive in the short term but harmful in the long term. The Fed is between a good rock and a hard place, being too aggressive and hurting the economy and the bank sector or too soft, allowing for a 1970-style multi-year inflation fight. On another chart in the video for this episode, you can see where the Fed Funds Rate currently sits. We are just now getting to the higher-end area where that was needed back in the late seventies and early eighties to finally beat inflation. There is a lot for the Fed to digest in the short term, and even though the markets might want the Fed to pause interest rate hikes, there’s a lot of risk in the long run. The long-term impact is likely what Chairman Powell is looking at. We will keep an eye on this moving forward.Stocks and BondsA chart in this episode shows the correlation between the Nasdaq 100, the 100 biggest tech stocks, and the 10-year treasury. If stocks and bonds are directly correlated, they are closer to +1 and moving in the same direction. When they are closer to -1, they are inversely correlated and move in the opposite direction, which is more typical for stocks and bonds and what we like to see. As you see in the chart shown in the video for this episode, for much of 2022, stocks and bonds were directly correlated. While being correlated is excellent when the market is moving up, it is not good when it is moving down, like last year. Since stocks are down, people are asking how their fixed income is doing, but unfortunately, that also took a hit in 2022. Things change, and the norm is that stocks and bonds will be inversely correlated and working oppositely. Since SVB Bank announced its capital raise on March 8th, stock prices and bond yields have decreased, while bond prices have increased. In short, bond prices go up when stock prices go down, which is more typical in the market and something we like to see. We believe diversification is important and is great when working properly. Last year, stocks and bonds were both down, so seeing the market return to normal and hopefully sustain it for the long term is excellent.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Is Volatility The New Norm? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Mark Hume goes over two important financial planning topics for homeowners to know.Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Fi Plan Partners and LPL Financial do not offer tax or legal advice or services. We suggest speaking to a tax or legal professional regarding your specific situation.
The post Financial Planning for Homeowners first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
All Eyes on The FedMarket participants have wished for the Federal Reserve to pause on rate hikes for many months, and we may see that happen after their meeting this week. This is the least clear the market has been on where the Fed will go with only two days away from their meeting. Typically, the market is fully priced on what rate expectations will be. There is much debate on where rates will be because of the concern around the banking system over the last few weeks. Even though the Fed pausing rate hikes is what people have wished for, it may have come at the expense of the banking system. This give-and-take surrounding the market is something we are going to continue watching. Over the weekend, there was a shotgun marriage between two Swiss banking giants, Credit Suites and UBS. UBS will buy its smaller competitor, Credit Suites, with the support of the Swiss banking system. This is news that the market is taking as a positive and shows that we’re doing all the right things and firming up our banking system and capital worldwide. What will be important is what the Fed says after their meeting. Will there be a 25-bais point rate hike, or will there be no hike at all? What the Fed says as the reason behind their decision could reassure markets. The Fed sees data that we don’t see, so if the Fed is confident in our banking system and the strength of our economy, then that’ll likely boost market expectations. In addition, inflation came out last week at 6%, which was in line with expectations. So, the Federal Reserve is getting what it wanted, which is a slow decrease in inflation.The Bond MarketIn a chart shown in this episode, you will see that we’ve had a lot of volatility in the bond markets. It has almost traded like the stock market, in a sense. The chart shows that the curve has flattened, and rates have decreased. The 2-year dropped from around 5% to 3.86% in the span of a week. The 10-year dropped from 4% to around 3.43%. We went from a 100-basis point difference between the 2-year and the 10-year to roughly a 40-point basis differential. Traditionally, once the 2-year goes below the Fed fund rate, that is typically when the Fed looks to pause or to start cutting rates. The 2-year is down about fifty 50-basis points below the current Fed fund rate, so it will be interesting to see what the Fed does with this news and the current situation with the banking system. On another chart in this episode, over the span of one day, you will see what the Fed funds rate looked like before and after the situation with Silicon Valley Bank. It has dramatically changed from having steady rate hikes throughout the year to maybe one rate cut or a pause to pricing and cuts coming along as soon as the middle of the year. All eyes will be watching to see what direction the Fed goes.Direct ImpactWhat the Fed does has historically affected the stock market. In the past, the Fed has pushed rates higher than necessary to stop market falls. This time, we need to see a more accommodated Fed to see the market start to rally. Over the last year, we have seen mortgage rates rise. We watched the 30-year mortgage rate go from mid-twos to above seven. That directly impacts individuals looking for homes. As interest rates fall, you should expect to see stocks stabilize and potentially rise. You should see mortgage rates fall, which could help the housing economy and people looking for houses. A great deal of news is coming out this week that will significantly impact where the markets, inflation, and interest rates go from here, and we are watching it closely.Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Be Careful What You Wish For first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Adam Vansant walk you through how to access tax documents on Account View.Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™
Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Finding Tax Documents on Account View first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Over the past week, several things have taken place that has caused the media and some economists to voice their concerns when it comes to the markets. In this week’s episode, our Portfolio Team reviews several data points that will give you excellent insight as to what’s actually going on.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Panic Not Required first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rates and Market PerformanceWith the treasury yields spiking higher the past few weeks, we’ve had some questions about higher interest rates and market performance. We looked back from a historical perspective on how the S&P 500 index had performed in calendar years when the yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note finished the year higher than where it began. From 2000-2022 there were ten such years where the S&P 500 posted a positive total return in eight of those ten years. One of the outlier years was last year in 2022, which saw a record jump in the 10-year yield, with the S&P 500 having a tough year. So, even though rates are rising this year, history says that’s not necessarily bad for the markets and is something we’re observing.Economic DataWhen we talk about holding the line, we’re usually referencing a technical line and trying to see if the market can stay above it. A chart in this episode displays the S&P 500, the 500 largest stocks publicly traded in the US. The S&P 500 is the most important equity index in the world. The chart shows how all of last year, the market would rally and then fall repeatedly. That started the term where we had a higher, low beginning this year. The market rallied, and then the market fell and then held at that rising line. Can the market hold this line going forward? Will it be able to continue a new pattern of higher highs and higher lows?Technical data like this tell us what’s happening now, and fundamentals are good for looking at the past. Another chart in this episode shows market performance during earnings season. The last three rallies in the S&P 500 were during earnings season. The micro data core company earnings alone have been very positive. The market had rallied on that positive news only to fizzle when the macro data took center stage. The Macro data we’re talking about is inflation. Everyone knows that inflation has been an issue and that the Fed has been pushing prices down. We’ve passed through another earnings season, and recently the market rallied again just in time for us to receive the macro data. Can this current market line hold as we move from the micro data positivity to the macro, which has been negative over the last 12 months? We will get the jobs data on Friday, inflation data next week, and the week after that, we will have the important Fed decision regarding interest rates. As you can see, we have a lot of macro market data coming at us. It will be very important to see if the market can hold the line and get a good rally to start off the year.Sector RealignmentThe global industry classification standard, which oversees realigning the S&P 500, is scheduled to do a realignment on March 17th. There’s going to be over a trillion dollars’ worth of money being realigned within the 11 sectors of the S&P 500. The money is not coming or going, it’s just being realigned within the same 500 companies, but how does that work? Some of the credit card companies that are currently in the tech sector are moving to the financial sector. These kinds of moves make more sense because the credit card companies deal mainly with financials. There are some companies moving from the tech sector to the industrial sector as well as some of the big box and discount retailers going from the consumer discretionary sector to the consumer staple sector. These moves will align the US more with the rest of the world. The tech sector is going to lose about 3%, making up 22% of the overall sector for the S&P. Financials are going to get a 3% bump, moving up to around 15% overall. Compared to the rest of the world, in the most tech heavy places like Japan, their tech sector only makes up around 18% of their total. In places like Europe and China, their tech sectors make up around seven and eight percent. It is very interesting that that we were so tech heavy before this realignment.Forced TradingThe sector realignments won’t change anything but it is going to create hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of forced trades. We have a lot of rules-based investing in this world. It’s not as much as one person picking one stock and buying them. They may want to own visa, but if visa is no longer in the tech sector, they have to sell it. If you own a financial sector, you have to buy it. There’s no human decision behind that. That’s just hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of forced trading that is going to happen in the next couple of weeks, likely around March 16th. It’s going to make the market look a lot more volatile and make it look like there’s a lot more activity. There will more than likely be a lot of press around the record volume that will take place. It’s not as much of an importance from fundamental decision making, but it is important for those companies going from one sector to the other. It is equally as important for the sector managers who own these companies today but won’t own them a week from now. There are a lot of moving parts that will probably create some friction for a few weeks. This is not a recommendation and will not impact a stock long term or short term. This is just a notation that due to rules set by the S&P 500, certain stocks are changing sectors.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a registered investment advisor. Member FINRA/SIPC
The post Can the Market Hold the Line? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to learn the difference between ETFs and mutual funds.Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value, and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV). Upon redemption, the value of fund shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. ETFs carry additional risks such as not being diversified, possible trading halts, and index tracking errors. Investing in mutual funds involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Fund value will fluctuate with market conditions and it may not achieve its investment objective.
The post ETFs Vs. Mutual Funds first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Economy and The FedThe Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE, not only came in worse than expected, but the prior three months were all revised higher. The whole thing throws cold water on the ‘disinflation’ buzz and the rally we’ve seen so far this year. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index for services spiked by 5.6%, the worst since 1984. This matters because services is where inflation is running hot and makes up almost two-thirds of consumer spending. This higher reading is not what the Fed wanted to see, so we expect further rate hikes, which will lead to a more volatile market than what investors were hoping for coming into this year. This makes the Fed’s job extremely difficult in bringing down inflation without significantly hurting the economy. We will continue to watch this closely.Inflation DataThe chart shown in this episode shows the most recent year-over-year changes in the cost of selected items in the Consumer Price Index. The chart shows that services have been the most inflationary. Airfare costs are up, along with hotels, food, and others. However, gasoline is down 1.53%, and used car prices are down nearly 9%. During the pandemic, there was an increase in electronic purchases, such as TVs. However, last year the data shows that television prices dropped 14.40%. Another chart in this episode shows how price changes in consumer goods and wages have developed since 2000. It shows that anything technology related has been deflationary. In 2000, technology items, such as TVs, toys, and computer software, were more expensive and have continued to decrease in price over the years. On the opposite side of that, hospital services, college tuition, medical services, housing, food, childcare, and hourly wages have continued to get more expensive.Technical AnalysisAs long as inflation remains elevated, we will continue to see increased market volatility. After the third week of a declining market, we’re analyzing our technical research closely. We would like to see the S&P 500 stay above the 200-day moving average of 3942. Numerous Federal Reserve officials are speaking this week, and several important economic reports are coming out. For those viewers who like to track the markets throughout the week, keep an eye on the 3942 level on the S&P 500. The market must hold this level as we continue to deal with higher inflation.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Inflation and Market Volatility first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
You don’t want to miss this week’s special episode of Investors’ Insights, where Greg Powell and Trey Booth answer a popular question that we often hear, “What is the purpose of the many screens in Trey’s office?”Click the link to watch this informative video where Greg and Trey discuss how the Portfolio Team at Fi Plan Partners uses the screens to follow market performance and track data.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Behind the Screens first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
As we celebrate the 18th anniversary of Fi Plan Partners, we wanted to share a special message from our fearless leader, Greg Powell, to thank you for an incredible 18-year journey with phenomenal relationships like you.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post An 18th Anniversary Celebration first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Core CPIThis week’s market-moving event could be when the consumer price index report comes out on Tuesday. Expectations are that the annual price growth decelerated to 6.2% in January. The core CPI, which takes out the more volatile food and energy numbers, is often seen as a better measure and is projected to rise 0.4% month-over-month, which is different from what the market or Federal Reserve wants to see. The core CPI number had started to come down at the end of last year, especially the inflation of core goods. The market started the year strong on the thought that inflation was coming down, so a hotter inflation number could reverse the trend in the market. We’re concerned about Tuesday’s report because we’re seeing a rise in gas and used car prices. Used car prices have surprisingly risen in recent weeks, which was unexpected. They remain above historical prices going back to 2008. So, Tuesday’s inflation report is significant because trading sessions and market trends were negatively impacted throughout last year on days when CPI was reported. With the much stronger-than-expected jobs report seen two weeks ago, a higher inflation number could damage the market for a few weeks.Market Moving DataWhen the Congressional Budget Office updates its official budget baseline, it’s typically a non-event. This report comes out on February 15th and is expected to be a market mover. Why does this budget baseline matter? It is the number that congress uses when considering bills or changes to the deficit and spending. They use the Congressional budget baseline to guide where things are going. This number hasn’t been updated since May, and a lot has happened since then. The current Congressional budget baseline uses a 1% Fed funds rate. Currently, the Fed funds rate is 4.75%. That’s an additional $300 billion in interest payments that must be built into the future budget. That’s also $300 billion that congress, when dealing with the debt ceiling debate, must take off the table for spending and use for interest. In addition, spending overall is up $570 billion above the baseline estimate. Again, another dollar figure means that congress must pull that spending off because it’s already been accounted for. Tax revenues are relatively flat, so a big tax windfall is not expected. What does all this add up to? It means that the deal over the debt ceiling, originally expected to last until July, will be pulled forward by as many as 2-3 months. Congress initially thought they had as many as five months to do this; however, they may only have as little as 6-8 weeks. That’s a much shorter timeline to get a bill passed, which could pull the market volatility forward. In 2011, the S&P 500 was down 15% during a similar situation. The market has ignored it more this time than it did then because markets typically don’t react until reality hits. With the possibility of market volatility coming sooner than later, we will dig into the baseline data that comes out on the 15th and plan to react accordingly.Short-Term VolatilityWe wanted to share a Super Bowl fun fact with you this week. According to Carson Investment Research, there have been eight instances since 1910 of a Philadelphia team winning the Super Bowl or World Series. Each win was followed by adverse events such as the Great Depression, the Great Recession, etc. Obviously, that’s coincidental and not something we trade off of. However, it helps us to feel better when talking about the Chiefs winning Super Bowl LVII instead of the Eagles. On a more serious note, sticking with technicals but focusing on seasonality, February is typically the second worst month of the year aside from September. In February, weakness traditionally occurs in the second half of the month, starting around the 15th. However, it has been historically followed by a strong March. We are also amid the strongest quarter of the 4-year presidential cycle. So don’t let this short-term volatility get you down.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Romance with Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Ashley Page talks about preferred stocks and explains how they are different from bonds and common stocks.Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk.
The post The Pros and Cons of Preferred Stocks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Technical AnalysisAfter a strong January for the markets, the question is, can the rally continue? Fortunately, technical analysis helps us answer this question. One bullish market development that happened last Thursday for the first time in two years, a golden cross occurred in the S&P 500. A golden cross is a bullish signal when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Historically, a golden cross means a positive market. The S&P 500 has historically generated positive returns over the 12 months following each golden cross. Of the previous 36 golden cross signals, the index produced forward for an average return over the following 12 months of 10.5%. What’s more interesting is when the 200-day moving average is declining, such as the recent occurrence, the average return for the S&P 500 jumped to 16.8% over the following 12 months. We’re able to analyze technical analysis for confirmation that there is a trend change for the market and further raises the probabilities that the bear market low that we saw back in October and the current direction of the market appears durable, just probably not at the pace seen in January, but still a positive sign for the market going forward.The FedThe Federal Reserve met last week and announced its interest rate policy. As expected, they raised rates from 4.5% to 4.75%. That was in line with expectations and not nearly as aggressive as when they closed the year by raising rates by 50 and 75 basis points at a time. The Fed appears to be slowing down, and the market has taken that positively. However, in the Fed’s official statement, one sentence was missed initially that the market may be taking more aggressively now. Jerome Powell said, “The committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2% over time.” That 2% number is important because many market participants have been looking for the federal funds rate to get above the current inflation rate. The current rate of inflation is 6.5% and the federal funds rate at 4.75%. That’s not nearly as far to go, especially with two inflation numbers coming out between now and their next meeting in March. You could easily see how inflation could fall down to where the federal funds rate is currently. However, with inflation at 6.5%, that’s a long way from 2%. Is the Fed moving its target of getting the federal funds rate above the current inflation rate, or are they trying to get inflation all the way down the 2%? That’s a much more aggressive stance if the Fed remains aggressive until inflation is at 2%. They sent some mixed signals with their statement and if you don’t want to fight the Fed, it’s hard to see where they’re going. There’s a lot of data left to come out but the next most important data point we’re watching for is the inflation report, which comes out on the 14th of this month.EarningsSo far this quarter, half of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their earnings. Sales growth is up 4.6%, beating expectations, but earnings growth is short at -2.7%, with energy still being the outperformer. What’s interesting is that these numbers show us what is going on right now and looking back. Looking at the projections for 2023, those numbers have started to come down. Every time each company reports its earnings it puts out a projected earnings estimate. So far, these have been coming down. We started last year with earnings per share of around $245 for the entire S&P 500. This year EPS took a steep decline down to $224. Job cuts are not factored in these earnings reports but we’ve seen a lot of them. While they are never good for the employees, job cuts help companies expand their margins. They have fewer costs, which factors into earnings costs, cost of goods sold, and things of that nature, so it’ll be something to keep an eye on going forward.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Golden Cross first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rate HikesFor the last few years, the market has been 100% focused on what the Federal Reserve was going to do. During Covid, it was very stimulative, but in 2022 that flipped to being very restrictive, where the Federal Reserve was trying to get the market and prices to drop. Going into 2023, the story is the same. What we’re watching for this year is when will the Fed feel comfortable with pivoting from restrictive hiking to maybe pausing or turning around. This week’s meeting is very important and will be the first meeting of 2023. They’ll announce on Wednesday what their rate policy is and expectations are that they will go from 4.5% where the Fed Funds Rate is up just 25 basis points to 4.75%. That’s a big move considering we had 75 basis point hikes many times through last year. The Fed will not stop hiking its Fed funds rate until it is above CPI. History is a good guide to this and that’s where the Fed thinks they have finally beaten inflation. The Fed funds rate is currently at 4.5% and is likely going to 4.75%. Inflation most recently was at 6.5% so there’s still a lot of work to do. The Fed’s guidance on how they view potential inflation between now and when they meet next in March is going to be huge. Hopefully, by then, inflation has come down to a point where the Fed can at least pause. In a chart shown in this episode, you can see why the market thinks that a pause is good. The chart shows that historically the Fed doesn’t sit idle for very long. As soon as they get to that peak level, they usually make some sort of policy mistake where they chase inflation up. Similarly, they didn’t chase the market and the economy down on the other side because they typically hike rates, so they must immediately start cutting rates. Cutting rates is very stimulating for the stock market and we may start seeing what could be a sustainable rally which we haven’t had in many months. That’s why this decision is so important. It’s not really what they do, we all pretty much know what they’re going to do, it’s what they say. There’s so much teetering on when they can pause and then likely reverse course, which will help the market.PositivityLast week, the Core PCE report came out and was up 0.3% month-over-month and 4.4% year-over-year. The Core Personal Consumer Expenditures report focuses on businesses and is a key part of the Consumer Price Index report. With that being said, over the past three months, Core PCE is only up 2.9%, with the Fed funds rate possibly going up to 4.75%. We’re looking at the first time in a long time when we might have some real positive rates. It was just a short time ago when we were talking about negative nominal rates, not even including inflation. Now we’re looking at positive real rates, which would be the Fed funds rate minus inflation. It’s very interesting and gives consumers a lot of different options as opposed to the negative interest rate environment that we have been in for quite some time.Misleading HeadlinesAs we head into another big week of corporate earnings reports, one of the big stories so far this earning season is the layoffs being announced by some of the big technology firms. Some might think that the Federal Reserve will be happy with the layoff announcements but looking deeper into the situation, the headlines might be misleading. Looking at a chart shown in this episode of recent layoffs announced by technology firms gives a better picture of what’s really going on. On the chart, the blue lines represent the percent growth in the workforce during the pandemic and the orange lines on the left of the chart represent recent layoffs. Amazon increased employees by 93% and Spotify increased by 122%. Some of these companies had record hiring sprees, so the recent layoff announcements seen in the orange lines are not too surprising. META increased its workforce by 94% and just announced layoffs of over 12% of the workforce. It’s not that big of a deal considering the size of hirings in recent years. Also, we’re hearing that those in technology losing their jobs are being rehired quickly, even with some being hired within a few days. If we hear of more layoffs this week from technology companies, it might not be as negative for the stocks and future guidance as some think. As always, it’s important to look at the full picture.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Fed Fury first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Trey Booth and Ty Miller talk about the possible benefits of a down market when it comes to taxes.Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Tax Loss Harvesting first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market UpdateWe want to give a quick update on where the market stands as we head into a very important week of corporate earnings. The S&P 500 has kicked off 2023 with a solid start, rising 4% before giving up some gains last week. In this episode, we show a few charts that highlight the technical macro backdrop of the S&P 500, which should help the index finally break its downtrend in 2023. One chart goes back to last January when the S&P 500’s previous rally attempts failed to break through the 200-day moving average. Today, the 200-day moving average is at 3971. These failed rallies last year in March, April, July, and December were due to sharply rising interest rates and a big US dollar rally. The good news is that the headwinds we saw last year have largely subsided. On another chart, you can see that the 10-year treasury yield has fallen to 3.5% and is in a pronounced downturn. On the third chart, you will see that the US Dollar index is also in a pronounced downturn. The backdrop for inflation has also improved over the last year. Another chart shows that the recent peak in year-over-year inflation estimates for 2023 is coming down. With yields, the US Dollar, and inflation all trending down, we’re watching carefully to see if the market can finally break through and hold at the very important 200-day moving average number. We are watching and hoping for what should be a less volatile year as we move forward.Technical StrengthWe seem to be having some technical strength in the market where we’ve created a bottoming process. Last year it was all about inflation, the Fed’s response to inflation, and rising interest rates. Since the last Fed meeting, the market has seemed to be looking at earnings. Something we thought was important to look at was where our earning season could be going and where the market expects it to be. A chart shown in this episode shows the change in earnings expectations to start the year off. Only 10% of the S&P 500 earnings have been reported and we will get a third of the S&P report this week, which should show some market-moving data. While the market seems to be bottoming, earnings are coming out a little bit weaker than expected. Since the beginning of this year, expectations have dropped by over 2%, showing negative earnings growth for the fourth quarter at -2.9%. That kind of conflicts with the revenue expectations of +4.1%. That means inflation is hitting a company’s earnings and the market directly. Prices are higher and there are more sales, but you also have higher costs so that’s bringing earnings down. If you strip it down and look at the specific sectors, you can see that the bulk of the earnings positivity comes from two sectors. Energy had 61% earnings growth, and industrial had over 40% earnings growth. Those two sectors are pulling up the market and that is where you saw a lot of strength last year. We need to see a broadening of that strength for this market to find a sustainable bottom and then move past this inflation and Fed-led market into an earnings-led market. At the end of the day, companies make money and they give that money to shareholders. That’s what calls the price to go up sustainably. We’re going to need to see those earnings improve. We will get a lot of data this week and we hope we’re going to see some positivity, which could cause the market to rally.Record DividendsLast year we saw a record $563 billion in dividends being paid to shareholders. That is a great sign because, during the pandemic, a lot of companies had to cut dividends or pause them. We were glad to see companies get back on track with rising dividends. It’s only January, but we’re on pace to see another record year for dividends. If the dividend yield stays the same, there’s a chance that numbers will surpass those from 2022, which is a great sign. Historically, dividends have accounted for about 60% of the S&P 500’s total return. As you can see in a chart shown in this episode, one factor is from 2010 to about 2021, known as the QE era, we saw dividends only make up 26% of the S&P 500’s total return. As we transition from QE to QT, it’s going to be interesting to see if dividends start making near that 60% range or at least find a nice middle between 26% and 60%. Right now, companies are paying out 33.4% of their payouts, which is historically low. Typically, they pay out around 48%. Last year was a record year, but it seems like 2023 is well on track to surpass that. We are hoping to see dividends become more of a factor going forward.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™
Senior Vice President of Operations & Advisory Services
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Charts Don’t Lie first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode, where Ty Miller talks about taxable events in relation to gains and losses and how to know when it is considered realized versus unrealized.Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Unrealized vs Realized Gains and Losses first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Historical MarketsOne of the best ways you could describe the 2022 year is with the word volatility. This occurred in the stock and bond market. We saw the S&P 500 down 19.4%, Nasdaq down 33.1% and the Aggregate Bond Index was down 13%. Also, international markets didn’t fare much better with an example of Emerging Markets being down 20.6%. Where does last year compare in history. Going back to 1928, there have only been 6 years in which the S&P 500 performed worse than it did in 2022. Moving forward, we expect some similar headwinds to play out in 2023. One of the biggest one that we have an eye on is the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to fight inflation. Historically, the market has seen an average 26% return following the previous year close to 20% or more. Of course, there are no guarantees. We are hopeful that we will have a more favorable market in 2023, even with some of the headwinds that carried over from 2022.Mortgage Rates and InflationIt’s no secret, if you have been watching our vlogs that the interest rates have been challenging and rates have moved up drastically over the last year. We thought it would be helpful to discuss some topics, specifically what was the most telling of last year. The first is regarding Mortgage rates. The national average of the 30-year was an important thing to look at. It opened the year around 3.22% and ended the year at around 6.3%. To put this in dollar terms, that’s around $200 per month for every $100,000 of borrowing. So, for example, if you have a $500,000 home, that’s $1,000 a month for 30 years in additional cost. This is a topic that is really starting to affect people. From a market standpoint, we wanted to discuss the amount of negative yielding debt. This shows how extremely abnormal the last decade has been. Coming into 2022 there was $14.1 trillion negative yielding debt instruments around the world. What this means is that an individual is buying an investment that if held until maturity that they will lose money. This almost seems counter-intuitive for investing in general. That number is now down to zero. The transition was painful to get where we are now but looking forward, this feels like a more normal environment for investors.Unemployment and The FedAfter a sluggish start to the year, we saw a big rally on Friday. For some that may have had the perception of receiving a good unemployment rate, but it really depends on how you look at it. Payrolls increased 223,000 which was a little more than expected. Unemployment is down to 3.5%, which is low. The labor force participation rate froze, which is a good sign. One of the main takeaways for us is how the market reacted to the wage numbers. Wages rose 0.3% month-over-month and under 5% year-over-year now. While this does hurt the working consumer with inflation still being high, the stock market seemed to take this in stride but why? The federal reserve cannot handle supply and demand but one of their jobs is to help with inflation. So, if wages start coming down or moderate, the Fed could stop raising rates as much as they have. We got some good information from ISM Manufacturing with service inflation decline and production falling. The thing we are keeping an eye on is how the Fed reacts.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post 2023 and You first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode, where Trey Booth talks about the impact that interest rates have on the cost of mortgage payments and home prices, as well as what this type of housing environment has looked like historically.Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Impact of Interest Rates on Housing Costs first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode, where Greg Powell and Max Taylor dive into real estate and answer a few common questions regarding the pros and cons of this type of investment.Max Taylor, CPA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Max Taylor here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Pros and Cons of Real Estate Investments first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation DataThe Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that measures inflation ended up being a nice Christmas surprise. The report came in at 7.1%, beating the expectation of 7.3%. The market took that in stride and rallied on the good news. The report also showed some of the transport costs coming down, which is also a good sign. However, one negative thing in the report that stuck out is that food and beverage costs are still elevated. We need that to come down but overall, it was a solid inflation report that the market enjoyed.Interest RatesIn last week’s vlog, we talked about the two big data points we were watching for. One of those being inflation and the other being the Fed. We said that inflation needed to be below 7.3% and the Fed’s decision on interest rates needed to be at or below the expected 50-basis point rate hike. Well, inflation did its part and the market rallied from Tuesday morning when the report came out through Wednesday into midday when the Federal Reserve announced its decision. Jerome Powell came out, despite the better-than-expected inflation data, and gave comments about the dot plots of what the Fed projects the interest rates to be going forward. The plan is much more aggressive than expected. They did raise rates by 50-basis points in line with expectations, but it’s what they said about future rate hikes that were much more aggressive than what the market thought considering inflation coming down. However, what was interesting is after those comments, the market did sell off for the rest of the day and through the week, but long-term interest rates came down. That tells us what the bond market and the stock markets are expecting. Even though the Fed says they’re going to raise rates, they’re likely not going to be able to because the Fed has already misjudged the economy and we might be heading into recession, which will cause the Fed to raise rates and then quickly turn around and cut rates because they’ve moved the fed funds rate too high. Interest rate expectations for their federal funds rate fell despite the Fed saying that they would raise rates further. It’s a little confusing but what the market is telling us is that the Fed is on the wrong side of fighting inflation.The S&P 500If you have watched our vlogs this past year, you know that we have stayed focused on inflation and the actions of the Federal Reserve. There are many reasons why we have been focused on these things, but one reason can be seen in the chart shown in this episode that highlights the average daily return of the S&P 500 and its different sectors. It shows that for all Consumer Price Index release dates since the Fed began raising rates in March of this year, the returns were bifurcated between days when year-over-year core CPI came in above or below estimates. In terms of the broader market, the S&P 500 has posted average returns of 2.4% when core CPI is surprised on the downside. We show this because we hope that inflation numbers will continue to trend down in the new year and the market will react more positively to these lower inflation numbers. It’s something we will continue to watch every day and continue to talk about in our vlogs in the new year.Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Fed Grinch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
On this episode of Innovation Mavericks, Greg Powell, CEO of Fi Plan Partners, sits down with Rush Garner, Owner of Rush Wine Cellars, to talk about his journey from selling wine out of his minivan to having his own brand and how he has continued to grow over the years.
What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free-thinking people who refuse to conform to society’s standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, genius, independent—individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational.
What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing what hasn’t been done before. New ideas, methods, solutions, systems, products, and tools at the heart of every Maverick is the power of innovation. So, let’s tap into the mind of an innovator!
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Innovation Mavericks: Rush Garner, Owner of Rush Wine Cellars first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rate HikesThis year is coming to a close, and very few market participants would disagree with the idea that inflation and the Federal Reserve have been the two stories that have driven the market higher and lower this year. We’re about to get both reports on top of each other as the inflation CPI report comes out on the 13th, and the next day the Fed is going to announce its final rate decision for 2022. These are two very enormous data points to see if inflation is going to be on the naughty or nice list. Will we get a Santa Claus rally? If it’s going to start, it’s got to start here this week. There are no other major data points between now and the end of the year that can push the market out of its current state to begin that Santa Claus rally. The markets reacted a few weeks ago when Jerome Powell made his last public statement. They go through a blackout period where they can’t talk to the media before Fed decisions. During his last statement, he said, “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting”. That one sentence sent the market higher. Since then, the market has come back down to earth because of worse-than-expected economic data. This week, the market is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 basis points. That expectation is built off of the fact that the market expects inflation to come in at 7.3%, which is down from 7.7% last month. We must see this number continue to come down so that it locks in that peak inflation number that we saw over the summer and continue to come down. The Fed can then take that data in before their announcement on the 14th. They don’t have a lot of time for their models to take in that new data so if it’s aggressive one way or the other, the Fed doesn’t have a lot of leeway to move. The next day, on the 15th, the Fed is expected to announce its decision. Will Jerome Powell stick to his words, that if the inflation data is positive, the December meeting will be the beginning of the end of a tight fed? The market would love to hear that. These are the two data points to write down. The 50 basis points hike from the Fed and a 7.3% number for CPI. If we’re above either of those numbers, the market is likely to fall. If we are below either of those numbers, the market will likely rally to close the year. That’s what we are looking at as we head into the holiday.Consumer SpendingThe Fed is expected to raise interest rates again this week as we continue to look at the overall impact higher rates are having on the economy and the markets. With the Fed’s goal of slowing down the economy, or having what we call demand destruction, we like to look first at consumer spending. Consumer credit reports show that consumers are still willing to spend money despite concerns about the economy. Perhaps they’re taking comfort in the fact that the labor market remains really strong which is a good thing for the economy and the markets. One area where we are seeing evidence of the Fed’s policies working is wholesale prices of used cars. Prices have reached their lowest levels as interest rate hikes have raised borrowing costs. Used car wholesale prices have declined 15.6% from the record levels that we saw back in January. Lower used car prices should help spending across other industries, that’s good for the economy and the markets.Technical AnalysisAfter the market traded back last week, we wanted to give an update on technicals, as the market will be greatly impacted by the Fed’s actions this week. The S&P 500 has been sandwiched into a very tight trading range. The S&P 500 closed last week at 3,934. If the S&P 500 goes above the price of 4,100 to the upside, it will be a positive breakout. Anything under a price of 3,900 would probably imply weakness. So, there’s a lot on the line this week with the Fed raising rates again.Gas PricesIt doesn’t feel like it, but it’s been a remarkable year. Gas prices year-over-year are virtually flat. Over the summer, gas prices hit an average of $5 a gallon nationwide. Consumers were concerned and inflation numbers were hot. Since then, it has come down to $3.50 a gallon nationwide. It has kind of been a tug-of-war between OPEC production cuts and global recession fears. With oil, there’s more than meets the eye when it comes to pricing. We started using the strategic reserve we had, the OPEC production costs changed, and the EU last week started capping oil prices from Russian oil at $60 a barrel. Russia said they were not going to go down to $60 a barrel and said they would quit producing or find other buyers before they let that happen. With that being said, it’s going to be an interesting dynamic going forward and we don’t think this is the end of the talk regarding gas prices. It has been a remarkable year just going from $5 a gallon back down to flat year-over-year cost.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Inflation: Naughty or Nice? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Price of GasThe G7 plus Australia have agreed to implement a $60 price cap on barrels of oil from Russia. The reason that this is impactful is that oil is currently trading at around $80 per barrel. This means if these countries are going to buy oil from Russia, they’re going to get it at a deep discount, which would force Russia to sell below market prices. This story ties directly to a story we discussed last week where China may increase its chances of lockdowns to fight some uprisings and protests in that country. Why does that impact this story? That agreed-upon $60 price cap only has teeth if other countries agree to do the same thing as the G7 plus Australia. If Russia can get around it and still sell oil at $80 barrel to the likes of China or India, then there’s no impact on this G7 agreement because Russia will still get the $80 barrel. If China is locking down its economy, then they’re not going to be buying as much oil. This will then have a bigger impact on Russia, which will hopefully weaken its military strength in what is the ongoing battle with Ukraine. Russia’s ability to circumvent any kind of sanctions through China has been a large perceived driving force of Russia’s continued economic success, despite all of the developed world trying to cramp down on their growth. We’re seeing oil rise and not fall as you would expect after hearing this news. This is something we will continue to watch closely.Jobs and The FedThe best way to describe the recent jobs report is that it would be good if we were in the right environment, and right now we’re just not in that environment. It’s not a terrible report, it’s more of a mixed bag. Unemployment is low at 3.7%. Wage gains are up 0.6% month over month, and up 5% for the year. Payroll is up $263,000. That’s all good news but with this environment, where the Fed is hiking rates and we’re seeing wage gains of 5% at the same time, they’re saying that’s too hot. They think that’s tying into inflation where they might need to do another 50 basis point hike in December. The participation rate, which is the number of people actively looking for a job, fell again. We need more people looking for jobs to relieve some of the stress from supply chain issues. We’re still trying to catch up in the leisure and hospitality space. You will see in a chart shown in this episode where we were pre-covid and where we are now. We have gained a little bit, especially in some areas, but we’re still trying to play catch-up in leisure and hospitality. The next jobs report we get will be next month. Hopefully, we can see some things that will lead the Fed to believe that they don’t have to hike as much or as viciously as they have previously.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Low on Energy, High on Jobs first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Mark Hume talks about the different types of life insurance and how important it is to make sure what you have is right for you.Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
This material contains only general descriptions and is not a solicitation to sell any insurance product. They may not take into account your personal characteristics such as budget, assets, risk tolerance, family situation or activities which may affect the type of insurance that would be right for you. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Is Your Life Insurance the Best for You? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
China LockdownsOver the weekend, following the data on Black Friday and holiday shopping, we received news regarding major China protests, across the country, against Covid lockdowns and poor working conditions. That news has riled Asian markets and has hit certain sectors of our market. Indirectly, our entire ecosystem is connected to China, with them being a large part of our supply chain. We are seeing companies within certain sectors of the market hurting today due to their large presence in China. The energy market is down because of the thought of these protests. One would think that since they are protesting the lockdowns and negative working conditions, there may be a change for the better to follow. However, the markets are telling us the exact opposite. The government will likely crack down on these issues, causing the lockdowns to be more severe, less usage of commodities and energy, less working, worse working conditions, and less productivity. The news is reporting on how these protesters are gaining steam and getting more attention than normal, but the market is saying the opposite. The market is saying that these protesters are likely going to have more severe consequences on the other side, which affects demand for a lot of products globally. This is not something that will necessarily impact us today and is not something that we were expecting to be a big news event, but it is something that we feel needs to be watched very closely moving forward.Historical MarketsThe midterm elections are mainly over and what we are looking at is a Democratic Senate and a Republican House with a Democratic President. On a recent episode, we discussed two scenarios that we thought were most likely to play out heading into the midterm elections. One of the charts shown in this episode is from early November when we said one possible outcome of the elections was a Republican sweep with a Democrat President. The other possible outcome we estimated was a Democratic Senate with a Republican House. As it turns out, the latter has become a reality. You can see the average annual performance, going back to 1933 when we had this kind of layout in the political landscape, was actually better than with a Republican Congress and a Democratic President. The market’s annual performance was the second best, coming in at 13.6% for that time frame. We thought this was something to keep an eye on and it’s great that it played out how we thought it would. Every year since 1942 the market has been up an average of 15% for the twelve months following a midterm election. Of course, there’s no guarantee and historical returns don’t mean future returns, but it’s still good data to look at it while we are dealing with inflation, recession talk, and other negative things out there. An average of a 15% gain and nothing negative to report from the past midterm election years gives us a little more positivity when it comes to the political landscape and how it’s associated with the markets. This is data that we provided in other episodes throughout the year as we navigated through the volatility of the markets, and we will continue to stick with that as we watch things. You can always have a surprise, but this is the kind of data we want our clients to know about and how we are looking at it in relation to their portfolios and the markets.Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Markets, Elections and China first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumer Credit As we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, we’re also getting closer to the big spending day with Black Friday, and there are a lot of different thoughts about how strong this black Friday will be, as consumers are still dealing with high inflation. One interesting note is that consumer credit defaults are […]
The post Carving Up Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits While the market will have to wait a few more weeks to get clarity on what the makeup of Congress will look like, we can give you an update on two important components of what drives stock prices and the economy. First, let’s take a look at an update […]
The post The Impact of the Elections? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Recently the IRS released the changes they are making to tax brackets, standard deductions, IRA contribution limits, and more. Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Mark Hume go over these changes and what they mean for you. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi […]
The post 2023 Tax Planning first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Fundamentals vs. Technicals On a chart from our research partners at Strategas shown in this episode, you will see the S&P 500 and what it looked like in the middle of last week when we got the Fed’s decision, which caused the market to sell off pretty quickly. It appears as though that created […]
The post Charting the Course first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
For the sixth time this year, the Federal Reserve has announced that they are raising interest rates in an attempt to fight inflation. In this episode, Bobby Norman talks about where consumers could see a direct impact due to these increases. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here […]
The post Higher Rates and Your Money first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation The recent inflation data has been negative, and individuals are feeling the pinch at the pump and the grocery store. Inflation has risen at a fairly fast pace, historically. Strategas Research Partners provided us with a chart, shown in this episode, that we think helps to show that even though the ride up has […]
The post Trends first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Trey Booth goes over the recent cost of living adjustment announced by the Social Security Administration and explains how it impacts individuals planning for retirement. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, […]
The post Social Security Cost of Living Adjustments first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
History of The McRib We have plenty of charts to show today, but perhaps the most interesting chart of the day is about the McRib making a comeback. It has historically been added back to the menu around the fall season, so we wanted to have a little fun and show you a chart analyzing […]
The post The McRib and Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Jason Hatley go over the recent RMD rule changes that the IRS has announced for inherited IRAs. Jason Hatley, CFP®, CPA, PFS Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team […]
The post Inherited IRA Rule Changes first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Historical Volatility As volatility remains high, we continue to look back at the history of the market to see what could lie ahead as we get closer to the midterm election. The market has historically shown strength in the months after the midterm elections. What we found out about the S&P 500 is when it […]
The post Investors’ Wishlist first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Ashley Page talks about the European energy crisis and how it could impact the world and US economy in terms of supply, imports, exports, and more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, […]
The post How the European Energy Crisis Affects the Global Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rates & Inflation On Friday, we received the jobs data, which ended up being a quintessential example of how good news turned out to be bad news. The report showed 263,000 jobs added last month, which is good news. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, which is also good news. The bad news was […]
The post Good News, Bad News first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Every year we sit down with the Operations team at Fi Plan Partners to point out important things that need to be done before the end of the year, which is quickly approaching. Watch or listen to this week’s episode to hear what you should be adding to your year-end checklist. Greg Powell, CIMA® President […]
The post Operations and Year-End Checklist first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Oil Price Increase This week, for the first time since 2019, OPEC will be meeting in person in Vienna. The talk of the town, which was moving markets this morning, is that they’re talking about cutting production by a million barrels per day. Last month when they met virtually, they discussed and followed through on […]
The post Cutting Supply first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode where Ty Miller talks about how shareholders can have cash returned to them in different ways, such as dividends. Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across […]
The post Returning Cash to Shareholders first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Corporate America There is currently a lot of bad news hitting the market right now. Today, we wanted to focus on the bright spots. There’s a lot going on, from higher interest rates due to an aggressive Fed, the Russia and Ukraine conflict escalated last week, and there’s been a lot of talk around a […]
The post Market Bright Spots first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
On this episode of Innovation Mavericks, Greg Powell, CEO of Fi Plan Partners, sits down with Michelle Norwood, Owner of A Little Something Extra Ice Cream, and their CEO, Hunter Norwood, to talk about how their mobile ice cream business is making a difference in the lives of those with Down syndrome and other exceptionalities. […]
The post Innovation Mavericks: Michelle and Hunter Norwood, A Little Something Extra Ice Cream first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation Last week the reports showed a higher-than-expected inflation number. We were expecting a 0.1% decrease but instead, we got a 0.1% increase. That doesn’t sound like a lot but when other things are factored in, such as energy prices being down 5% thanks to a decrease in gas prices, it was a big increase. […]
The post All About The Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market Strength There was a lot of strength in the market last week, which is great to see considering we have to contend with the seasonally weak month of September. The test this week will be if the market can continue the uptrend or was last week a bounce due to the previous three weeks […]
The post Surprising September first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Bobby Norman go over the historical data surrounding the impact that political events, such as elections, have on the markets. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a […]
The post Election Impact on Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Treasury recently announced the highest rate ever for I bonds. However, it may not be as attractive as you think. Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Mark Hume explain what I bonds are and what to look for when it comes to your cash savings. Series I bonds can only […]
The post Understanding Your Cash first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Technical Analysis We have recently had viewers ask for examples of how we use technical analysis so today we will go over some of those examples. Often, we talk about resistance and support levels and one of the questions is asked how we arrive at those numbers. One of the main things that we look […]
The post Answering Client Questions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free-thinking people who refuse to conform to society’s standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational. What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is doing […]
The post Innovation Mavericks: Brian Collins, Atomic Pictures first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market Uncertainty Last week we talked about the importance of 90% of stocks being above their 50-day moving averages, which is historically a very positive development, but what could lead to further volatility in the market? The answer is higher yields. Rising yields could be a threat to the recent rally that we’ve seen in […]
The post Rattling Cages first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Secure Act 2.0 is currently making its way through congress. Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Jason Hatley, Financial Planning Manager, go over what laws might change such as RMD age, student loan match contributions, and more. Jason Hatley, CPA Senior Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason Hatley here Fi Plan Partners […]
The post Secure Act 2.0 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market Strength There have been a lot of questions asked related to the market strength we have seen the past few weeks. Is it sustainable? Is what we’ve seen a typical bear market rally? Two weeks ago, on the vlog, we mentioned an indicator that we watch that looks at market strength. That indicator shows […]
The post Ninety Percent? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
What is a Maverick? Mavericks are free thinking people who refuse to conform to society standards and are driven to change the world. Mavericks are intelligent, inventive, imaginative, and genius, independent. Individualistic idealist idea machines, original uninhibited visionaries, icons, intentional and inspirational. What special power is possessed by Maverick? The power of innovation. Innovation is […]
The post Innovation Mavericks: Mitch York, Certified EOS Implementer® first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Recession? We continue to receive client questions about the idea of us being in a recession and what impact that talk has on the market. It is important to point out that the S&P 500 has shown strength the past three weeks, even with the talk about a recession. The technical definition of an economic […]
The post Winners and Losers first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
What is friend-shoring and how does it impact portfolios? Watch this week’s educational episode to hear Ashley Page go over this topic in relation to global wealth. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a […]
The post Friend-Shoring first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Current Markets Last week we talked about how this would be a big week with the Federal Reserve and GDP reports. The data and the market definitely didn’t disappoint. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points, putting the current Fed target rate at 2.5%. That was in line with pretty much all of […]
The post Recession or Recovery? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Ty Miller goes over what the Fed balance sheet is and talks about how it’s managed in relation to the economy. Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial […]
The post The Fed Balance Sheet first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
The Bond Market This is an enormous week in terms of markets and economic data. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates and then on Thursday, we’ll get the first look at second quarter GDP. The reason we used the word tornado in the title is because we’re seeing […]
The post Tornado of Market Activity first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode where Trey Booth, Chief Investment Officer, puts some context to what risk-free return means. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management […]
The post Explaining Risk-Free Return first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation We have had July 13th circled on our calendars for a long time because of CPI being released. Inflation is one of the top points for markets and the individual consumer. The data came out and surprised to the upside. The markets were expecting 8.8% year-over-year and it came out at 9.1%. This […]
The post Slay the Inflation Dragon first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode where Trey Booth, Chief Investment Officer, talks about good news with commodity prices and inflation. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth […]
The post Inflation and Commodities first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Labor Market On Friday, the jobs report came out very strong showing that 317,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. That’s a really good number but why are jobs so important? Jobs will be how we get to a soft landing. For the economy to continue to grow, we need to go […]
The post Soft Landing? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Managing Director, Bobby Norman, go over what asset allocation is and how it plays a role in your Financial Blueprint and your portfolio. Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm […]
The post What Is Asset Allocation? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Mark Hume goes over a few retirement tips for those who are self-employed. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business […]
The post Retirement Planning for the Self-Employed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Commodity Prices We’re close to finishing what’s been the worst start to the year in history, and we are analyzing what could drive the market higher in the second half. We shared a few weeks ago that, historically, the second half of the year has performed well coming off a bad first start to […]
The post Bear Market Rally? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Adam Vansant talks about what dividends are and how they are paid out. Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA™ Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Adam Vansant here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. […]
The post Understanding Dividends first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rates Last week, the Federal Reserve made the decision to raise rates by three quarters of a percent or 75 basis points which was said to be off the table at the last meeting. This is the largest increase in rates by the Fed since 1994. As you can see in a chart […]
The post Farewell TINA first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this episode, Ashley Page, Senior Vice President, goes into detail about inflation and the factors involved with increased service costs. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, […]
The post Service Sector Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Core Goods Inflation Everybody is focused on inflation because it is impacting their pocketbooks. We are looking at it from a market standpoint and the reason is because inflation is driving the Federal Reserve’s $9 trillion decision. Inflation came out on Friday at 8.6%, which is much higher than we expected. That beat the […]
The post Nine Trillion-Dollar Decision first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, you will hear Ty Miller, Associate Vice President, go over what stock splits are and how they have performed historically. Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management […]
The post What Are Stock Splits? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumer Travel We’ve been watching the jobs numbers all year because we’ve been talking since late 2020 about how the US consumer has been spending more on goods vs services and in order to see inflation come down, we need the consumer to flip back to spending on services like they have done for […]
The post Please Take a Trip first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Corporate Earnings We wanted to address the strong corporate earnings we are seeing versus the conflicted lower consumer sentiment. First, we will go over corporate earnings. You will see in a chart shown in the episode that over 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported results. The first quarter earnings growth for the index […]
The post Companies vs. Consumers first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this video Greg Powell, President of Fi Plan Partners, sits down with Greg and Donna Bishop, the visionaries of Hoover Helps, to learn more about how one family can make a difference in the lives of others. See how Hoover Helps and local businesses like Fi Plan Partners are helping children in times […]
The post Gifting to Help Others first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
A Time in History The market is down for the eighth week in a row and because of that, we wanted to look back in history to see what was going on the last time we had this kind of volatility. We found some similarity with the year 1970. On a chart shown in […]
The post Markets and 1970 first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumer Sentiment We will be watching the retail sales number closely this week as the U.S. consumer is showing weakness. The weakness in the consumer matters because consumer spending makes up 69% of our economy. Consumer confidence expectations is a leading economic indicator. Last week, we saw a notable dip in U.S. consumer sentiment […]
The post Consumer Down, But Not Out first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s episode, you will hear from our President, Greg Powell, Stephanie Grindle, Senior Vice President of Operations, and our newest team member, Sonja McGittigan, Operations Specialist. Stephanie and Sonja share a little about themselves, as well as how they contribute to making sure our clients have an effortless experience. #fiplanpartners #effortless […]
The post The Effortless Client Experience first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Interest Rates The Fed, as expected, raised interest rates by 50 basis points. One of the things the market took as a positive is that the Fed took the 75 basis point rate hike that they were planning for June, off the table. The market rallied on that note, but then on Friday, gave […]
The post Can Supply Meet Demand? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
How does the capital structure of companies play a role in the stock market and your portfolio? Listen or watch this week’s educational episode to see what Ashley Page has to say about this topic. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an […]
The post Understanding Capital Structure first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Rate Hikes and The Fed The Federal Reserve is fully expected to raise interest rates when they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. They’re planning to announce their decision late Wednesday. There was some concern last week when we got a negative GDP print, which came in well below expectations. We were expecting growth, maybe […]
The post Money, Money, Money first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Rate Hikes and The Fed Last week we seemed to be having a bit of a rally. Even through mid-day on Thursday, the market was up, but then chairperson, Jerome Powell spoke in public comments and came out a little more aggressive than the market’s anticipated. The expectations for rate hikes went up considerably. You […]
The post Is Everything Okay in the USA? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Mark Hume speak about the benefits of having a Health Savings Account. Mark Hume, CFP® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Mark Hume here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, […]
The post The Long-Term Value of HSAs first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Follow The Facts There’s an old saying that everyone has heard before that says, “Sell in May, then go away”. It means you sell out of the market in the month of May and stay out until November. After that it’s said that you ride the wave, so to speak, until the following May. […]
The post Sell in May? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Ty Miller speak about the Yield Curve and what historically occurs when we see an inversion. Ty Miller Associate Vice President Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial […]
The post Recession and The Yield Curve first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Stocks and Bonds First quarter, as everyone knows, was a very rocky quarter for the stock market. That topic hit a lot of public air. We see it on the front-page of the newspaper but what wasn’t initially covered was that it was also a struggling quarter for the bond market. When stocks and […]
The post Murky Market Outlook first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
A credit card can be of great value but can also be harmful. Watch or listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Jason Hatley go over what to look for when choosing the right credit card for you and your spending habits. Jason Hatley, CPA Vice President Financial Planning Manager Email Jason […]
The post Strategic Use of Credit Cards first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Jobs It has been a wild first quarter, and for the last three months we’ve been talking about all of the early indicators of potential economic slowdown. There’s been spike in oil prices like we have never seen. The yield curve inverted, and we’ve seen an aggressive Fed. These are all things that have been in the media, and we hear talked about that are concerning. However, when it comes down to it, it’s very hard for the economy to dip into a recession or slow down in any extreme way when we are adding jobs. In the month of March, we added 431,000 jobs month-over-month, which is a phenomenal number. If you look at the chart shown in this episode, we’re nearly back to where we were pre-COVID. If you compare March of 2022 to February of 2020, we’re only 1.57 million jobs shy. That shows we’ve made massive improvements, but it also shows that there’s still room to run. This economy hasn’t necessarily over heated, and we still have more jobs to add. In the leisure and hospitality sectors, where there’s been the most weakness, traditionally has also had the quickest lag time between openings and rehiring. That means there’s a lot of jobs out there that can be filled, we just need people to want to go to work. There are an estimated 11 million job openings and roughly 6 million people unemployed. If the Labor market stays this tight and this strong, with year over year earnings up 5.6%, it’s hard to see how we dip into a recession when people are working, getting paid to work, saving money, and staying employed. We need to see the strength continue, but it’s very good to see as we come into the second quarter.
Earnings Stocks have rallied back nicely over the past couple of weeks with the S&P 500 up more than 10% from the March 14th low. While some suggest that the market is sniffing out a potential compromise to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that’s certainly possible, but in our opinion that’s not the whole story. It’s our opinion that corporate profits might be another element of the bulls thinking and driving the latest rebound in the market. Not only are US earnings estimates holding up in the face of war overseas, and in the highest inflation in 40 years, but also, as you can see in the chart shown in this episode, estimates for the S&P 500 Index earnings per share for the next four quarters are actually up in March. The US stands out globally with a favorable earnings outlook. Right now, the US profit outlook is the envy of the world. This is important and a particularly good place to be if companies close the books on first quarter and as first quarter earnings season approaches. This is why our investment strategies are heavily weighted towards US equities. It is the best place to be in right now.
Gas Prices It has been said that a bull market climbs a wall of worry and one of those worries right now is gas prices. Last week, President Biden talked about the possible drawdown of one million barrels a day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves. If he does that for the 180 days that he mentioned, that’s going to be a 30% drawdown of our reserves, which would bring us near record lows. Those will eventually have to be replenished, however, one thing that we’ve seen that kind of counteract gas prices, along with tapping into our own reserves, has been individual states are starting to implement tax cuts. In a chart shown in this episode, you will see that Maryland and Georgia have already implemented a tax cut. At first lot of people worried that about the tax cuts passing through to the consumer and as you can see, it did very well. Connecticut’s tax cuts went into effect on Friday and now there’s even talk from both sides of the political parties that maybe we should implement a federal gas tax cut for the remainder of the year to see what happens. There are some things on the table to hopefully get gas prices down just in time for people to travel.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Is The Market Madness Behind Us? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Listen to this week’s educational episode to hear Stephanie Grindle and Greg Powell discuss a few of the exciting things happening at Fi Plan Partners when it comes to the client experience, such as where to find tax documents, Account View updates, and more.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Stephanie Grindle, MBA
Advisory Services Coordinator
Email Stephanie Grindle here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Client Experience first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Bull Market A bull market climbs a wall of worry, and this market is having to deal with several things right now. Some of those things being the Ukraine war, inflation is at a 40-year high, short-term interest rates are soaring, and let’s not forget, because we’ve been dealing with it since 2020, the stubborn pandemic that just won’t go away. Another thing is that the average cost of gasoline has risen 48% from a year ago to $4.24 cents a gallon. All those things are causing a wall of worry and are things that we will continue to keep an eye on.
Broad Based Rally Last week was the two-year anniversary of the March 2020 market lows. Things seemed awful at that time, wondering how we were going to get out of the pandemic. Day after day the market was taking a beating. Since that time, over the last two years, the S&P 500 is up 73%. This performance is in the 95th percentile of returns in a two-year span. We’ve seen growth from all over and not just in one place of the market. Tech has gained two percentage points in the S&P 500. Other areas have also grown such as discretionary, energy, and financials. There has been a broad-based rally and has been a good time to be in the market when you would have thought that all hope was lost. Indices have performed differently, but we have focused on the S&P 500.
Technical Analysis The S&P 500 closed Friday at its highest since February 9th at a price of 4,543. This gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,580 and a new support level of 4,500. Also, the 100-day moving average of the S&P 500 is currently at a price of 4,546 which is right in line with the close price from Friday. That’s one number we really want to pay attention to in order to see if this creates a new resistance or support level, and to see if we can stay above it. If we stay above it, we could see a more bullish tone in the market and potentially keep this rally going. If we fall below it, we could see the bears come out. This is one thing that we want to look at as we head towards the spring and summer months.
The Bond Market The bond market has been getting a lot of publicity lately and rightfully so. The yields have been rising and the 10-year closed last week around 2.4%. While we think fixed income is great for any portfolio because it’s a great diversifier, it’s important to know, when it comes to buybacks and dividends, that the average stock in the S&P 500 is still yielding 3.5%. That is pretty good compared to the 2.4% yield of a 10-year treasury bond. In just the dividend yield alone, 30% of the index still exceeds the 10-year treasury, so there’s still income options out there in the equity market that are worth exploring.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Are the Bears in Trouble? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Bobby Norman, and Justin Ladden of Kreativ Retirement Plan Solutions, go over what a 401(k) plan is and answer several common questions they often get about them.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post What is a 401(k)? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Historical Data As expected, last week the Federal Reserve announced that they are raising rates. We had several questions around how the market reacts to tighter policy, so we wanted to address that today. As you can see, in a chart shown in this episode, stocks have done quite well in previous periods of tightening. On the right side of the chart, it shows how a year after the first tightening, we have seen stocks higher the past six times. Investors need to remember that the first rate hike is normally a sign that we’re in more of a mid-cycle and there could be years left for stock and economic gains. For instance, as you can see in the second chart shown, there were seventeen total rate hikes in 2004-2006. The S&P 500 was higher each of those years so even with the Fed expecting multiple hikes this same year, we have seen multiple hikes in the same year many times before. The bottom line is that rate hikes usually are not bearish events, and we don’t expect this cycle to be any different. The big picture items like long term gas prices are what we are more worried about when it comes to negative economic impacts. We are watching things carefully, but our history says not to overreact to the Fed tightening.
The Yield Curve The Fed raising rates on its own is not a negative indicator. It’s often a positive indicator that the economy is strong and can work without Fed stimulus. However, at some point, typically the Fed over does it and causes the economy to roll over. So, where is that tipping point? Chartist and research data often points to the yield curve, which is the difference between interest paid on short-term borrowing versus long-term borrowing. You want to see interest paid on long-term borrowing much higher so that you’re being rewarded for investing for the long-term. It is when that flips that we get concerned. A chart shown in this episode shows that since 1978 there have been six recessions dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and in all six instances, the yield curve inverted. That means the two-year treasury yield was higher than the ten-year treasury yield. That shows that the Fed was raising rates on the short end and the economy was saying things are slowing down on the long end. You have the market saying one thing the Fed saying the other. While the Fed can raise rates, we must watch this very closely to see what the market is telling us. We really want to see market rates start to rise because right now that is very tight. You’ll notice that the chart doesn’t say when the yield curve nearly inverts it causes recession because that’s not the case. The yield curve actually has to flip, and we have to have long term rates lower than short term rates. Right now, it’s sitting at 0.20% or 20 basis points, so the Fed is walking on a very tight rope right between raising rates to help inflation and not pushing the economy into recession. You can see that the average time between when the yield curve inverts and when we go into recession varies. It has historically been between 22 months in the long run and six months in the short run. On average, it is around 12 months. This is something we’re watching very closely, though. We can stay this close to an inverted yield curve for a very long time. We did that for nearly a decade back in the 90s so this is something we can do very easily and is something we’re watching closely.
Gas Prices State budgets are in the best shape they have been in in 40 years. In a mid-term election year where people are focused highly on inflation and states actually have the power to do something, they are starting to take the initiative and cut back starting with tax cuts on gasoline. We have been feeling it at the pump, but spring break is coming up and people want to be traveling. A lot of states, such as Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and more, are proposing to temporarily eliminate their state gas taxes. That would be a big development if approved and maybe Alabama will follow suit. Nothing has been mentioned from the state of Alabama yet but for our nearby travel states, that would be great news. If you want the full list of states proposing the tax relief, feel free to email us and we will get this list to you.
Technical Analysis We saw a rally last week with the S&P 500 coming in at its highest close price since February 17th. The S&P closed Friday at a price of 4,463. That gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,500 and a new support level of 4,420. We also saw a unique event where the S&P 500 closed above the 50-day moving average, which is currently sitting at a price of 4,432. It is important to keep in mind that while getting all of the economic and fundamental data, we like to correlate it back to the technical analysis to see the trends and see if the momentum can continue to the spring. We will follow the economics and the fundamentals of these companies and economy and simultaneously watch the trading ranges and what is taking place out there. This strategy has really helped us navigate through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Rates Higher, Gas Lower? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Adam Vansant goes over what the three major indexes are and how they relate to the overall stock market.
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Three Major Indexes of the Stock Market first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market History With the recent volatility in the market, we wanted to share some research with our viewers. We looked back throughout history to see how the market reacted the last time we had high inflation and a geopolitical event the same year. We were able to find a very relevant chart that shows the current S&P 500 trend is similar to the 1982 midterm election year, which not coincidentally, was the last bout of major inflation for the US. At the same time, we were dealing with Russia and the Cold War. Just like nearly every midterm election year, equities rallied into the election in 1982. As always, no guarantees and no year is exactly the same, but we shared this chart in this episode to show that we’ve been here before. With a volatile market caused by high inflation, conflict with Russia, and during a midterm election year, the market was still able to end up higher for the year. History says stay the course and make adjustments as necessary. Another interesting fact is that the market is down less than 1% in terms of the S&P 500 since Russia invaded Ukraine. The volatility in the market seems to be news driven. It is horrible what’s taking place but there’s other factors that are also impacting the volatility of the market.
Inflation Inflation is at 7.9%. That’s the highest rating we’ve seen since 1982 however, there’s a big difference between now and then. Back then, we had nearly a double-digit Fed funds rate and right now we’re at zero percent. We’ve all felt the inflation at the gas pump and another big contributor to inflation was energy. It isn’t all Russia and Ukraine related since we had inflation before then, but the oil prices are really starting to stick out.
The Fed The news cycles kind of shifted focus on the Ukraine and Russia issue which definitely is front and center and very tragic, but the market was already down leading into that event and that’s largely because of the Fed. People were concerned about the Fed raising rates and the Fed being too aggressive to fight inflation. There’s been a lot of talk around that and it’s finally here. The first Fed meeting of the year, where they may be raising rates, will be on the 15th and 16th of this month. They’ll likely decide to raise the interest rates to 25 basis points. It’s amazing how long we’ve been waiting for this. March 15, 2020 was a Sunday and in between meetings the Fed came out and announced that they were cutting rates all the way to zero in response to COVID. We’re trying to get back to normal or trying to reverse the extreme circumstances of the global financial crisis around the coronavirus, and this is the first step. It’s not just what the Fed does that’s important but what they project for the future, what they say, and how they say it. The market will go through every single word that Jerome Powell says in his press conference and we’ll dig into how the market reacts to it. We’ve been talking about this for a long time and it’s finally here. The Fed raising rates and how they respond to geopolitical events will be very, very telling.
Technical Analysis A few weeks ago, we gave an intermediate technical analysis with resistance and support lines. Last week we saw those support levels be tested. The S&P 500 came in a little bit flat from the range of Monday to Friday, when Friday’s close price was 4,204. That gives us the new short-term resistance level of 4,240 and a new support level of 4,160. Another thing we like to look at it’s moving day averages. It’s important to note that the 50-day moving day average of the S&P 500 was down about .25% last week and is currently sitting at a price of 4,476. It’s also important to look at these moving averages to find a trend and future support and resistance levels. That’s one thing we want to keep an eye on along with the fundamentals because we correlate those back to technical analysis.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post News Driven Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Technical Analysis The S&P 500 was down when it closed on Friday, sitting at a price of 4,328. That gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,370 and a new support level of 4,290. It’s also important to keep in mind that the 50-day moving day average has dropped down to a price of 4,529. We still have hope that some of the fundamental topics such as jobs, might correlate with these technical terms and test the support lines.
Employment Numbers The employment number came out strong this past Friday. The non-farm payroll numbers of the jobs report beat expectations when the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and the labor force participation rate is the highest it has been since COVID started. Average hourly earnings saw no wage inflation and while you may think that’s not great since less money is being made according to this report, but this is a good thing when it comes to the Fed. This gives them little ammunition to maybe not over hike when it comes to interest rates if they see a lack of inflation. For the first time, we’re starting to see some job growth since pre-COVID in some areas. Trade, Transporting, Utilities, Information, Financials and Business Services, are all growing now which is good.
Oil Spikes Over the weekend, we saw oil spike in the news. The US is looking to ban the import of Russian oil and energy products. While Russia only accounts for 3% of American imports, it’s no secret that the price of oil has skyrocketed the last week. As you can see in the chart shown in this episode, it now stands at roughly 60% above its 200-day moving average. This is the most stretched it’s been since 1990 when we saw Iraq invade Kuwait. During that period, the price of oil more than doubled in three months and stayed elevated for almost six months. During the 1990 oil shock, you can see in the chart shown in this episode, the S&P 500 corrected 20% and the US entered a recession. While this year, the S&P 500 is down roughly 11.9% from its January 3rd peak, there could be further volatility and is something we’re watching carefully. In 1990, looking back in history, the Fed Funds Rate was 8% and they eventually embarked on the easing cycle. The Fed was cutting rates then but today the Fed is in the beginning of a hiking cycle. There is a lot to analyze between the positives of strong corporate earnings, the positives of a great jobs, and what history says about oil spikes.
The Yield Curve Something we’re looking at closely and we’re hearing in the financial press is the yield curve. What is the yield curve? It is the difference between where rates are at different lengths of time. You want to see higher rates the longer you go out because you want investors to be rewarded for taking on the risk of long term. What we’re getting concerned about with this Russia and Ukraine situation, is we’re seeing the yield curve flatten. This means that the interest rates on 10-year treasury bonds are coming down. We’re seeing interest rates come down as people are flooding to low-risk assets. On the two-year treasury, we’re seeing yields go up because the Fed is pushing rates higher on the short end due to them raising short term rates. Right now, the difference between the 10-year treasury yield for money being invested for 10 years and in the two-year treasury yield is only 0.25%, which is very tight. Traditionally when we see this go negative, which means you get more money for investing short term than long term, that’s an indication that the economy is shifting into recession. We’re not there yet even though it may look like we’re close, but we’re really not that close yet. This is an indicator that the Fed may need to be less aggressive because they don’t want to push us into that inverted yield curve scenario as the global economy kind of gets a little scared. We’re seeing the dollar strengthen and we’re seeing flows into US assets. We’re seeing long term rates fall that may limit the ability of the Fed to be too aggressive, which in the intermediate term is likely good for financial assets and something we’re watching very closely.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Good, The Bad, The Ugly first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this educational episode, Senior Vice President, Ashley Page, goes over the six reasons why increasing interest rates can be good for the US economy.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Increasing Interest Rates first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Market Correction For the first time since March 2020, the S&P 500 is down 10% from the recent highs, which technically means the market is in correction. Although, this isn’t comfortable, investors need to remember that there’s usually one 10% correction on the average year. After going nearly four years without a 10% correction, it’s not out of the ordinary for us to be having a period of volatility, especially with the combination of what’s happening in Ukraine, but also with the Federal Reserve and them most likely raising interest rates in a few weeks. On a chart shown in the video for this episode, you will see that the good news is, looking at all of the 10 to 15% corrections since 1980, the future returns were quite strong. As always, no guarantees, but returns were higher more than 90% of the time, and up more than 21% on average. One reason for the great performance of corrections, is that the new money from opportunistic investors was invested in the market when there was a pullback. We’re watching things carefully, as always, and there’s no doubt about it, the next few weeks will not be dull and we will continue to keep you updated.
Capital Expenditures Oil prices skyrocketed to the top of the news page and peaked everyone’s interest because it is the most real time inflation gauge that the average consumer can see every day as they are driving around and filling up at the pump. What consumers are feeling is definitely accurate. So far this year, the price of oil has averaged $86.40 a barrel and that’s the highest since the third quarter of 2014. There’s an old adage that the cure for high energy prices is high energy prices. Typically, that’s because at a certain price level, energy companies are making enough money where they will then invest in producing more energy and that by itself, producing more energy and increasing supply, brings prices down. The greed of the energy companies typically causes their own downfall because they often over produce and you’ll see a huge collapse in energy prices like we saw in 2014, which was the last time we saw prices this high. What’s unique about this scenario is that capital expenditures, which is the amount of money that energy companies are spending on increasing production, is actually at lows not seen since the mid-2000s. We’re not seeing that spike up. The capital expenditures is something we’re going to have to watch closely because the increase in capital expenditure will have to proceed the increase in production which will then proceed a decrease in price. This is something we’re watching closely as geopolitical events occur and as prices remain high. We will likely start to see these energy companies take some of those profits and reinvest in growing their production.
The Labor Market The labor market is tight and has shrunk considerably. We will get the big jobs report this Friday, but the information we got last week on initial claims for unemployment insurance were down. There were 232,000 new initial claims for unemployment insurance, which was below the expectations of 235,000. Continuing claims of unemployment insurance are at their lowest level in 50 years. That’s an improvement.
Technical Analysis Emotions led to a lot of volatility last week in the markets, especially on Thursday and Friday. Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a price of 4,384 which gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,435 and a new support level of 4,335. These numbers along with the intermediate and long-term technical analysis that we went over last week, are all things that we are going to keep an eye on. The year-to-date moving day average of the S&P 500 is at a price of 4,510. That price is still trending above the market but that’s something we’re really going to want to keep an eye on going forward as well.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Emotions, News, and Markets first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Inflation
One of the drivers of inflation has been consumer spending, which is great, but they’ve been spending on goods vs services. As we have mentioned before, goods are very inflationary. We’ve shown charts going back months that shows that there has been a spike in goods spending over services. That’s largely inflationary because you must ship and store goods and they also have to be imported. We have a huge supply chain issue that is driving the prices. One way that could be fixed, that the Fed has nothing to do with, is consumer spending. We feel like the consumer needs to be spending more money on getting out of the house, going on vacations, traveling, and eating out more. We’ve been watching that data very closely and have some really good news. On a chart shown in this episode, it shows at the start of the year we had a drop in consumers spending money on services and more on goods. We saw a drop in restaurant bookings through open table, and we saw a drop in TSA throughput. It shows that people were traveling and going out to eat less. That is why it’s one of the leading drivers, potentially, and why we’ve seen inflation. We’ve started to see that trend increase and the reason we like to watch this data. This data shows what is happening now and not as much looking back. There’s a lot of the data that we look at from a GDP and jobs standpoint that is months, and sometimes a years in the rear-view mirror. This is real time data and something that could be an early indication of future inflation dropping. If the consumer continues to increase their spending on services, we may see some bottleneck. The good news is it’s not that the consumer is drying up spending, it’s just where they’re spending their money that could really help inflation, which would reduce the Fed’s need to be hawkish to raise rates and slow down the economy.
Retail Sales
We received some disappointing retail sales data in December. If you remember, we talked about this on the vlog, and one thought process through that was that maybe the consumer was buying in October and November due to the assumed supply shortages. People were worried about getting their Christmas gifts on time and that theory played out to be true. In January, we saw a 3.8% increase in retail sales. That’s the fastest gain since March of last year and we’re up 13% compared to a year ago. This data shows that the consumer is back and better than ever and we’re thrilled that the consumer is spending money. Consumers are planning summer vacations and planning on taking trips that they didn’t get to go on due to the pandemic. Believe it or not, travel and hospitality might actually bring inflation down. This is something we will continue to keep an eye on.
Technical Analysis
Usually, we like to give short-term resistance and support levels for the S&P 500. On this President’s Day, we want to do something different and give you the intermediate support and resistance levels. What we’re looking at currently is an intermediate resistance level price of 4,630 and intermediate support level price of 4,280. What that means is if we were to break through the support level, that could indicate more of a bearish tone in the markets, and more of a bullish tone if the market crossed over the resistance level. We like to correlate fundamentals in with our technicals and will keep track of this as we move into the spring and summer months.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Travel and Inflation first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In order to kick off this week’s celebration of Fi Plan Partners’ 17th anniversary, this week’s educational episode is all about President, Greg Powell sitting down with Associate Vice President, Ty Miller, to discuss market trends, portfolios, and how Fi Plan Partners is unique compared to other firms.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post New Faces, New Ideas first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Earnings There’s a lot of talk, especially in the news media over the weekend and last week, around the uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine. While that is a very important topic, it is something that the markets have less history on and that we have less control over. As a result of this, we really want to focus domestically on areas where we have good market history and more of an understanding of how this may impact the markets long-term and less on the short-term with issues of global geopolitical events that are almost impossible to predict. Internally, it looks like the US economy is still growing and doing very well. Around 70% of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings and those earnings have been very strong. Year-over-year we’re seeing a 31% increase in earnings which helps explain how the market could do so well. How can the market go up so much and not be too expensive? That’s because earnings have grown at an extremely fast pace that has kept the market from getting overpriced. When we look at the future, not just the past 12 months, what could earnings look like? The chart shown in the video for this episode came from Strategas Research Partners and shows the trailing 12-month earnings versus the peak 12-month period in earnings for the different sectors of the economy. You can see where we may see more growth. In the Energy sector, it shows nearly $66 billion worth of earnings off the peak which says that there’s a lot of growth left there. In the Financials sector, it shows almost $50 billion off the peak and for the Industrials sector, it shows almost $16 billion off the peak. This shows that there are very large pockets of the US economy that still have a lot of room to grow before they reach their peak in earnings. That doesn’t mean that areas that are currently at their peak such as Healthcare, Materials, and Staples, must fall off. Those sectors can continue to grow as well. There is still a lot of optimism going forward in the US economy.
Inflation and The Fed Earnings have been great; however, inflation and the Fed are two of the biggest drivers, outside of fundamentals, that could potentially cause harm to the market. Every month, inflation numbers are reported and this month’s report shows inflation at 7.5%, which is the highest in quite some time. What does that mean for us and for the Fed? We’re currently seeing that there is a possibility of six rate hikes coming, which had not been forecasted until this latest reported CPI number of 7.5%. Likely, the Fed is going to take another look at inflation before their March meeting, but now on the table for discussion during that meeting could be a possibility of a 50-basis point rate hike, instead of a 25-basis point hike. What could that mean? This took the market by surprise, so we definitely need to keep an eye on that and hopefully the Fed does not over tighten like they did back in 2018. We saw how the market reacted to a potentially overly hawkish and more aggressive Fed when the market fell off towards the end of last week, based on that fear. There’s a lot of emotion behind that which is why we always like to look at the technical analysis, in addition to the fundamental analysis, because the pure numbers take all the emotion out of it. Adam reports the technicals and re-centers us each week with what the numbers tell us and what the market’s tone is with just pure numbers and not emotion.
Technical Analysis Volatility continues to be a theme in 2022, as we saw the S&P 500 close on Friday at a price of 4,418. This gives us a new short-term resistance level of 4,450 and a new support level of 4,390. We currently see the 100-day moving day average of the S&P 500 sitting at a price of 4,574. Topics such as earnings, the Fed, and inflation, are all very important to take into consideration when we’re looking at technical analysis. The numbers mentioned here are good strong numbers and we may see strength on some of those lower support areas or we may see weakness if we end up near some of those ceilings. There’s a lot of data to take in and we hope this information is helpful. What we’re trying to do is build a narrative that really focuses on where we stand in the US with our markets and with our clients and their portfolios.
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Domestic Focus first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
In this week’s educational episode, Mark Hume goes into detail about IRA limits, contributions, eligibility, and a lot more. If you have an IRA, this is an episode that you don’t want to miss.
Mark Hume, CFP®
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Mark Hume here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Tax Day and Your IRA first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Higher Gas Prices We talk about consumer spending a lot and deservedly, since the consumer makes up over 68% of our economy and is a big driver of stock market growth and strength. A big concern we have right now is the price of gas, which shouldn’t be a secret if our viewers have filled up their tanks in recent weeks. As you can see in the chart shown in the video for this episode, the average price of a gallon of gas is $3.50 nationwide. This has doubled since the pandemic lows and at its highest level since September of 2014. It comes down to supply and demand. As you can see in the second chart show in the video, the OPEC producers have failed to add back supply as quickly as they agreed to. All the blue columns on the chart show months where production was below target. Most recently, in December, OPEC was pumping 800,000 barrels a day below their target. As we head into the spring and summer months where gas demand is higher due to increased travel, consumers will be pinched by stubbornly high gas prices. The bottom line is that gas prices will most likely remain elevated for the next few months which matters for the economy and for the markets and will be something we continue to follow closely.
Wages and Jobs There’s money going out of your wallet but how much money is coming in? We received the jobs number on Friday and the whisper was that we may have a negative jobs number due to the omicron variant hitting the economy. However, the numbers were phenomenal with 467,000 jobs added in the month of January, beating expectations. In addition, we saw wages go up 0.7% month-over-month or almost 6% year-over-year. Those higher wages help absorb the cost increases. It doesn’t quite keep up with inflation but it’s good to see it moving in the same direction so maybe those increased gas prices aren’t as harmful if you have a job, and your job is paying you more. We’ve talked about month-to-month a lot and have been staying focused, but today we wanted to pull back and look at the long term. In a chart shown in the video for this episode from our research partners at Strategas, you can see that the jobs market is still roughly three million shy of where we were in February 2020. The bulk of those jobs, nearly 1.7 million, are in leisure and hospitality. This is something we’ve been talking about from an inflationary standpoint. We have mentioned before how we need to see people spending more on experiences and less on goods. In the chart you can see that transport has nearly half a million new jobs which is for transporting goods across this country. That’s not surprising, but we really need to see the spending on leisure and hospitality increase and we need to see other jobs come back. That should be disinflationary and should help ease that sting. We are also seeing wages in those areas much higher than where they were in 2020 so if we get back to full employment, where we were in January 2020, we’re going to be at a much higher total wage standpoint and really can be able to absorb some of these higher costs. This is something we are watching. We want to see more of where the jobs are, where they’re going, and maybe where we will hopefully see growth in the US economy.
Technical Analysis The volatility that we have continued to discuss in January has bled over into February. Despite that volatility, the S&P 500 closed on Friday at a price of 4,500. That gives us a new resistance level of 4,540 and a new support level of 4,460. We also see a year-to-date moving day average on the S&P 500 sitting right at a price of 4,566. If we can get some resolution to some of the fundamental issues that we are experiencing, especially with the consumer getting out and spending money more, we might see some momentum in the market continue through the summer and hopefully through the end of the year.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Reaching For Your Wallet first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Democratized Family Office At Fi Plan Partners, we offer a wide range of services to our clients. We use a Democratized Family Office approach which makes the process seamless and more comfortable. It is important for us to provide you with the most personalized advice and services, customizing our personal communications and technology to meet your needs. We take away any anxieties you may have about your financial future so that you can enjoy a life that is Better, Richer, Fuller®.
Watch our President and CEO, Greg Powell, explain what you can expect from our firm and how we stand out from all the rest.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Our Unique Approach first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Geopolitical Events There are a lot of questions floating around about our current market. One of them being around the impact of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. What impact could that have on an already volatile market? While any individual event could have different consequences for the market, it is worth noting that stocks have historically taken geopolitical events in strides. The chart shown in the video for this episode of the largest geopolitical events dating all the way back to World War II, shows that stocks fully recovered losses on average of 47 days after an average draw down of 5%. No guarantees, but previous experience has indicated that a possible conflict between Russia and Ukraine will unlikely have a material impact on our economy domestically, in corporate profits. There is one area that we would have to look at, which would be the potential for higher oil prices and any impact that would have on longer term spending.
Fed Uncertainty We’ve seen a lot of volatility in the market this year due to the unknowns. One of those unknowns is trying to figure out what the Fed is going to do. As we highlighted last week, the Fed had their meeting but were still very ambiguous on what they wanted to do. They do want to continue tapering, which is the slowing pace of bond purchases. As that concludes, we’re looking at a near certainty of a rate hike in March. What we don’t know, however, is how big of a rate hike it will be. We also don’t know after the initial rate hike in March, how frequent they are going to increase rates. Will it be an every meeting thing or will it be every other meeting? How many rate hikes are we going to see this year? After the rate hikes start, they do want to start reducing their balance sheet and that means that they want to stop reinvesting in bonds that they already own. They don’t want to do both at the same time and cause too much friction. We will be on the lookout for this to see when that starts. The Fed must be nimble with a lot of choppy data that’s out there. Between goods and services, inflation, and GDP, there’s a lot of mixed reviews out there to keep an eye on.
Goods vs. Services The Fed mentioned that they are going to likely be data dependent, which, can sometimes be frustratingly unhelpful. However, if you can identify the data they’re looking at, you can start to see what they may be doing in the near future. Throughout the crisis, we focused on the jobs data because we felt like the Fed was definitely watching that. Now, the unemployment rate has gotten to a point where the Fed feels comfortable with jobs so now what are they looking at? A lot of people have been talking about inflation and that’s something we’ve been looking at closely here for the last few months. Two charts that we have constantly referred to is the goods versus services spending chart. Good spending is more inflationary than services spending. If you buy a good, it typically must be built and shipped to a store to be bought. There’s a lot more that goes into the buying of goods. During the COVID crisis, we saw a huge spike in relative good spending versus service spending. You can see on the chart shown in the video for this episode, where the good spending really has been well above trend for over a year now. However, we’re starting to see it fall closer to the trend line. That likely will be a positive thing in terms of bringing inflation down. If we can see the consumer led market start to solve inflation without the Fed having to be overly aggressive, the Fed may back off some of their more aggressive tone. This goods versus services spending is very important and something to watch. As goods come down, we need to see services go up. We don’t need to see services and goods drop because that’s very indicative of a recession and that’s not what we want. Instead, it needs to be a natural order of goods and services.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Impact of The Unknown first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Another extension of pandemic relief benefits for borrowers with federal student loans has been announced, but will this be the last extension for this? Watch this educational episode to see what you can to do to prepare for when that benefit comes to an end.
Jason Hatley, CPA
Vice President
Financial Planning Manager
Email Jason Hatley here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post CARES Act: Federal Student Loan Relief first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Technical Analysis We’ve had a very volatile start to 2022 when it comes to the markets. The S&P 500 closed this past Friday at a price of 4,397. That gives us a new resistance level of 4,440 and a new support level of 4,360. These numbers are from the short-term analysis. We also look at it from a long-term perspective and the 200-day moving day average for the S&P 500 is currently at a price of 4,429. The 200-day moving average is currently trading above the market at this point in time. That’s the number we’re going to focus on, along with some of the support lines moving forward.
Groundwork Believe it or not, the Fed has kind of flown under the radar this month, which was surprising coming into the year since that was pretty much everything everyone was talking about at. With that being said, they will have meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday. We are not expecting it, but hopefully we don’t get a surprise rate hike. It’s going to be important for them to guide us into what they’re going to do for the next meeting in March. Right now, according to our CME Fed Watch Tool shown in the video for this episode, there’s basically a 90% chance of raising rates in a year with an expectation of anywhere from two to four rate hikes. It’s going to be very important for the Fed to lay the groundwork, this month, for the rest of the year.
Historical Markets There’s no doubt that volatility has spiked in the first three trading weeks of the year. We want to remind our viewers that volatility is not a recent phenomenon. As you can see in the chart shown in the video for this episode, going back to 1980, each year the market experienced a significant correction where the S&P 500 averaged approximately a 14% intra-year pull back. Going back to 1980, even in the years with significant pullbacks like the ones we saw in 1987, 2009, and recently in 2020 with the market trading back 34% in a short period of time due to COVID, the market was able to rally back to an end of the year positive. As always, no guarantees, but history has shown that those who chose to stay the course were rewarded for their patience more often than not. We are watching the indicators carefully during this volatile time and managing assets to each client’s plan, with a diversified strategy.
Fundamental Analysis For the last couple of years, we have had a stimulus or Fed driven market rally, as we needed to get through the recovery. Now, we need a hand off to happen because that Fed tailwind is dissipating. The Fed is meeting this week and that wasn’t even one of the top headlines as we opened our doors this morning, which is extremely surprising. With the Fed pulling back, what will lead the market higher? We think it will be the fundamentals. Adam Vansant talks about the technical analysis of the market each week, but the fundamentals, right now, are built around earnings. We are very early in the earnings reporting season, with only 64 of the 500 largest companies in the U.S. reported so far. They’re coming in a little weaker than we have seen historically with only 77% of them beating earnings expectations. That’s a really high number, but below normal. That’s the lowest number since the first quarter of 2020 and that was a pretty rough quarter. Hopefully we see a turnaround because if we see strong earnings, then the Fed becomes less and less important. Inflation can be managed by corporate balance sheets, corporations will be able to raise prices and/or wages, and we can see the market continue. We’ve got to have this nice hand off from a stimulus lead market to a more traditional, fundamentally lead market, and that starts with earnings and the earning season we’re looking at right now.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Looking for Support first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Pullbacks and Corrections Volatility is a normal part of the market and you’re going to see pullbacks but it’s when those pullbacks occur that we think is important. We found some interesting data that shows since 1945 there have been a total of 61 pullbacks of 5% to 10% and 23 corrections of between 10% and 20% in the stock market. Of those pullbacks, the ones that started before the end of February, 100% of the time, the market ended up higher by the end of the year, fully recovering any losses. You never want to see the market down, but if it’s going to be down you want it to be early. The later in the year happens, the more costly it is to you. if the correction starts in June, you only have a 63% chance of recovery.
Analyzing Inflation Last week we saw inflation hit the highest year-over-year spike in over 40 years. After being relatively stable around 2% for the past 25 years, inflation has erupted from virtually every corner of our economy with 7% being the number reported last week. Inflation continues to be one of biggest challenges to the economy, investors, and policymakers. Therefore, we continue to highlight it in our weekly conversations. We’ve had clients ask about the cause of this record inflation, so we wanted to share a chart that shows what exactly is contributing to the spike. You can see, on the right side of the chart shown in the video for this vlog, the light blue represents energy. Energy has more than doubled year-over-year. The light Gray at the bottom shows the increase in the cost of food, which, if you’ve been in the grocery store recently you’ve probably noticed your bill is higher. The black section represents the increase in costs of durable goods. Durable goods are cars, refrigerators, dishwashers, washer, dryers, and other big-ticket items. The orange section is rent and housing. Rent and housing has remained a big driver of our inflation over the past few years. The bottom line is that we could see inflation get worse before it gets better, as supply chain issues get worked out. The market will be greatly impacted by how aggressive The Federal Reserve deals with inflation and that is something we’re analyzing very carefully and a reason why we continue to talk about it on a weekly basis.
Goods vs. Services Over the last few years, we’ve seen an explosion in demand for goods. Individual consumers have been spending a lot of money on goods and less on services such as the experiences like to go out to eat. Goods are very inflationary because they have a need to be shipped, to be sold at a store, and to be produced. We’ve seen expansion in services and that’s not nearly as inflationary because services can be multiplied and can be duplicated. Service inflation goes straight to increases in wages, which on a total economy, is still a positive. Ashley Page did a great educational vlog last week on the experience economy where he went into more detail regarding this topic and the details surrounding goods and services.
Bond Yields To begin the year, bond yields have skyrocketed compared to what they were. With them being at very low levels to begin with, it has some people worried about what’s in store for stock prices. It’s important to keep in mind that typically, bond yields only rise when the economy’s good. The chart shown in the vlog for this episode shows that for the last six times bond yields have increased, specifically the 10-year treasury, they have had a substantial gain that lasted. In relation to that, stock market performance has been rather remarkable, also shown on a chart in the video for this blog. Overall, the last six times bond yields went up, it’s been a gain and rather substantial.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post It’s Going to Cost You first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Consumers spend their money on goods or services but how does that drive markets and the economy? Ashley Page talks about this very thing in this week’s educational episode.
Ashley Page, JD, MBA
Senior Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Ashley Page here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Experience Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Jobs Last week we talked about the Fed and the jobs report, which came out Friday. Just like in the past months, the headline number raised eyebrows. Ex[ectations were that 450,000 jobs would be added but it ended up being only around 200,000. The report also showed an upward revision to the months of October and November, which makes this headline number not look as low as it may seem. The private sector has also shown to be a lot stronger than the public and the government sectors over the past month, so we’re seeing a common theme. The unemployment rate dropped down to 3.9%, which is a very important number because the Fed is looking at 4% as their go to sign for raising rates. That 3.9% is showing the Fed and Jerome Powell that the economy is strong enough to start raising rates. Also, average hourly wages are up nearly 5% from a year ago and when you combine that with the number of hours worked, they’re seeing a 10% pay increase in the past year.
Interest Rates The interest rate market has been reacting to a more aggressive Federal Reserve as they have been fighting inflation. We have seen wages and prices go up and are now starting to see interest rates go up. Since December we’ve seen the 10-year treasury yield move up to nearly 1.8% as of this morning. We’ve seen the 30-year mortgage move from 3.1% up to 3.56%. The issue isn’t that they’re moving up but how quickly they’re moving up. A slow methodical rise in interest rates can be easily absorbed by the economy and by investors but a quick move, as we’ve seen in the past, will spook the market. This happens because the market is unsure of when that may stop which impacts companies who have a lot of debt. Companies took on a lot of debt during the last crisis and they must pay interest on their debts. Also, long term earnings are discounted back through interest rates. Safer, stable companies seem to be doing well, so we’re seeing a bifurcation in equities. Interest rates moving up also hurts individual bonds. As interest rates go up, prices come down and so there’s a lot of volatility and that hits Wall Street. It’s also hitting main street with things such as credit card debt and mortgage debt. Interest rates impact the economy as a whole and typically when they go up, its a good thing because it’s sign of a healthy economy. The speed at which we’re seeing them rise, especially after the jobs numbers have come out is something we’re watching. The Fed may need to move quicker to fight inflation, and with a strong jobs economy, that could potentially spook the markets and something we’re watching very closely, is how interest rates are being digested.
Midterm Election Market Volatility One big topic for 2022 will be midterm elections. Midterm election years have historically been weaker for stocks, and we won’t be surprised to see a tick up in volatility like we’ve seen the past week and a half of the New Year. As you can see in the chart shown in the vlog, the market underperforms leading up to the election but tends to outperform post-election. One reason for the underperformance volatility leading up to the election is that the market doesn’t like the uncertainty of potential policy changes that might come due to Congress potentially being run by a different party. Looking at the chart again it’s clear that, historically, the market starts to act up roughly six months before the election, which is usually around April. It then shows strength postelection when there’s clarity on what party will be in control and what the policies will be. Every year is different in the market, but it’s important for our clients to know that we use this historical analysis in our investment strategy, especially in midterm election years.
Technical Analysis We’ve seen a lot of volatility in the market so far this year. This past Friday, the S&P 500 closed at a price of 4,677. That gives us a new resistance level of 4,710 and a new support level of 4,640. We’re also seeing the 50-day moving average sitting at a price of 4,674. Despite the volatility and all of the fundamental factors previously mentioned, we’re starting to potentially see a support line, at least from an intermediate term, starting to firm up and almost perfectly match the market.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Workers Economy first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Everyone has goals to get physically healthy in the new year, but what about financial health?
In this episode, Bobby Norman goes over five great new year’s resolutions for your financial health.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post New Year’s Financial Resolutions first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Corporate Profits One of the most consistent bright spots in the market and the economy last year was corporate America’s ability to deliver expanding profit margins even with inflation spiking and specifically with the rising cost of raw materials and higher labor costs. A common question in 2021 was about how the market was able to continue to get higher with all the concerns around COVID, inflation, and the uncertainty around the Fed. Corporate profits was a huge reason why the market was able to continue to go high last year. As you can see in the chart shown in the video for this episode, the net profit margin for companies in the S&P 500 for 2021, was higher than all since 2011. There are two concerns we have going into 2022. One is continued inflationary pressure and the second is a more aggressive Fed. If companies can continue to drive this level of profit growth through pricing power, continue pent up demand, and some help with supply chain issues, then we could continue to see market strength. It’s a simple formula. Higher corporate profits lead to positive earnings reports which, in return, usually, not always, leads to market strength. For that reason, we’re watching corporate profits carefully in 2022.
The Federal Reserve The Federal Reserve has been a great tailwind for the markets and the economy. It kept interest rates at near zero and provided stimulus by buying 120 billion dollars’ worth of bonds a month. The Fed has already reduced their bond buying and in January there’ll be buying 60 billion dollars’ worth of bonds. That’s still a very large number, but at this rate they’re expected to stop their bond purchases sometime in late winter or early spring. We will get to see, in the next few months, what the market does without that tailwind from the Fed. The next step for the Fed is to raise rates. The reason why that’s very important is that, traditionally, economic expansions don’t just die of old age. Before COVID Australia had a 26-year unstopped expansion. An economy’s growth is typically not stopped due to expansion length but instead, it’s usually killed by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has a terrible track record of taking off stimulus. Between 1955 and 2009, the Fed entered into 14 rate hiking cycles. In 11 of those they had to reverse course because unemployment spiked, and we went to a recession. There are only three times between 1955 and 2009, where the Fed timed things right. That sounds very dire. In 2018 the Fed raised rates and the market had the worst fourth quarter since the great recession. However, we did not enter a recession and that’s because Jerome Powell saw the market trading down and reversed course before the economy weakened. That should give us some strength, knowing that the individual that has been re-nominated to be the Fed chairperson, was one of the very few Fed chair people to have properly orchestrated a rate hiking cycle without pushing us into recession. We have a lot of new Fed nominees coming onto the board so there’s still some uncertainty, but if tradition holds, we may see a rocky 2022-2023. However, if Jerome Powell can replay what he did in 2018-2019, we could see a smooth transition thanks to higher corporate profits.
Unemployment vs. Labor Participation One thing that Jerome Powell has done, is pay close attention to the job market. That’s one of the few things that are different about him compared to others in his position in the past. With that being said, the monthly jobs report comes out Friday. That’s possibly the most important piece of economic data that we get each month along with the COVID positivity rate. This report will reflect the month of December, which basically will entail the entire month the Omicron COVID variant. In November, we had an unemployment rate of 4.2%. We added only 210,000 new jobs compared to the estimate of 550,000. This will be an interesting report to see how the unemployment rate stands out compared to the Labor participation rate.
Greg Powell, CIMA®
President and CEO
Wealth Consultant
Email Greg Powell here
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF®
Chief Investment Officer
Wealth Consultant
Email Trey Booth here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post Overshadowing Omicron first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.
Looking Forward and Volatility As we start the last week of the year, we are looking if we might be potentially looking at a “Santa Claus Rally”. The last week of the year, no guarantees historically tends to be a strong week. One reason for this is that in previous years we have typically seen lower volume as a lot of traders on Wall Street take this week off. We are hoping that last weeks’ momentum carries into this week. Over the next few weeks, we will go over our thoughts on the market for 2022. One theme that we believe could continue is volatility. For the month of December in 2021, we have seen more volatility than the previous 20-year average. We are keeping an eye on certain economic conditions such as Covid and the Federal Reserve.
Surplus State and local operating budgets are looking very strong. They are operating at a surplus for the second consecutive year. Keep in mind that last year was the first time they had a surplus since 1978, on average. Why the surplus? Nominal GDP has been strong, we have had a lot of stimulus from Covid, capital gains are being pulled forward this year as investors had been worried about tax rate hikes next year and spending, as a percentage of GDP, is the lowest it’s been since 1985 for state and local governments.
Technical Analysis We have discussed volatility as we saw a down market two weeks ago followed by a strong last week. The S&P closed on Friday at 4,725 giving us a new resistance level of 4,755 with a support level of 4,695. The 100-day S&P moving average currently sitting at 4,531. This has moved up due to the markets being up last week. It’s important to distinguish that volatility isn’t only relevant to down markets but rather the sharp fluctuation in the overall markets. We will continue to keep a close eye on the indicators that we look at and hope that the current momentum can lead into the new year and beyond.
Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA®
Managing Director
Wealth Consultant
Email Bobby Norman here
Adam Vansant, AIF®, BFA
Vice President
Wealth Consultant
Email Adam Vansant here
Ty Miller
Associate Vice President
Email Ty Miller here
Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using both fee based investing and transactional investing.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted.
No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss.
Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.
The post The Final Stretch first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.