Expected Points: Recent Episodes
Jeff Sackmann
A brief look at insightful stats, trends, and trivia in the world of tennis. A daily podcast with Jeff Sackmann from @tennisabstract.
Novak Djokovic adds to the long list of players he’s beaten three times, Ashleigh Barty gets the most out of a small package, and Elise Mertens lays more groundwork for a remarkable doubles career.
Berrettini and Novak Djokovic make the most of their first two shots, Karolina Pliskova finds some magic out wide, and the Croatian doubles team of Mektic and Pavic chases the Bryan brothers.
Sabalenka serves faster than many men, Denis Shapovalov steps up his return game, and Jule Niemeier is the hottest player you’re not watching this week.
Djokovic holds an encouraging record against the rest of the quarter-final field, Ashleigh Barty has gotten here without many top-ten wins, and a Swedish doubles specialist excels in his first grand slam.
Muchova brings almost no grass-court experience to today’s battle with Angelique Kerber, Karen Khachanov advances despite a serve gone missing, and Ons Jabeur leaves a raft of high-profile losers in her wake.
Hubert Hurkacz has been unbreakable, Madison Keys is poised for a grass-court breakthrough, and Zverev couldn’t ask for a better fourth-round draw.
Kerber pulls out a marathon second-round win, Cam Norrie lines up with another top-ranked opponent, and Sorana Cirstea gets some long-awaited revenge.
Everything is going Karolina Pliskova’s way, Denis Kudla pushes his grass-court experience to the max, and Brengle finds a pair of opponents willing to beat themselves.
Nick Kyrgios has outplayed Ugo Humbert through four and a half sets, Garbine Muguruza is your bottom-half favorite, and Kiki Bertens plays her final match at Wimbledon.
Djokovic posts his best-ever ace mark at Wimbledon, Veronika Kudermetova bows out early of another major, and Dominik Koepfer is a savant when it comes to breaking monster serves.
Ostapenko swings big and wins big, Sam Querrey needs his second serve back, and the women’s field at Wimbledon sets a new record.
Marc Polmans and Ramkumar Ramanathan fight out an old-school Wimbledon marathon, an unlikely unseeded foursome remains in the Eastbourne women’s draw, and African tennis is alive in Brazzaville.
Cornet keeps almost beating Victoria Azarenka, Max Purcell is the season’s most surprising quarter-finalist, and the women’s field at Wimbledon is so deep that there are contenders in qualifying.
Berrettini’s serve-plus-one is made for grass, Sam Querrey has a penchant for narrow margins, and Eastbourne needs to reconsider its prize pools.
Medvedev is the favorite in Mallorca despite sparse grass-court results, Dan Evans is flying beneath the radar, and Karolina Muchova can’t go to Tokyo.
Samsonova puts on a week-long service clinic, Ugo Humbert wins all the break points, and the newly-enlarged WTA winner’s circle isn’t likely to keep growing anytime soon.
Garbine Muguruza leads the remaining pack in Berlin, Philipp Kohlschreiber is the unlikely veteran success story in Halle, and a Belarussian duo preps for Tokyo.
Karolina Pliskova opens the grass court season against her least favorite opponent, Richard Gasquet holds a unique Challenger-level winning streak, and it’s been 60 years since Margaret Court started winning titles in Britain.
Marin Cilic keeps winning on his favorite surface, Vandeweghe is deep sleeper pick for Wimbledon, and Sebastian Korda joins an impressive list of multi-faceted stars.
Ilya Ivashka posts another career-best performance in a losing effort, Barbora Krejcikova has risen the ranks with unusually good clutch play, and Jannik Sinner suffered a dose of his own medicine.
Novak Djokovic continues to win without a dominant down-the-line backhand, Barbora Krejcikova is a throwback to earlier generations of two-event stars, and Felix Auger Aliassime has played a lot of late-round matches by age 20.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenova is into her first grand slam final despite not playing her best-ever tennis, Alexander Zverev needs a good day on return, and this year’s French Open mixed doubles title didn’t require much work.
The women’s final four has paid their dues, Rafael Nadal keeps the bakery open, and Tamara Zidansek has a knack for winning matches during the second half of the French Open.
Berrettini was crushed by Novak Djokovic last time they played, today’s women’s quarterfinals feature a quartet of players who cruised through their last matches, and the WTA ranking system is barely rewarding this week’s stars.
Schwartzman is once again negating the server advantage, Elena Rybakina beat Serena by playing like Serena, and Daniil Medvedev aims to remain unbeaten in clay-court quarter-finals.
Djokovic and Nadal face off against a pair of Italian prospects, Iga Swiatek uses her singles off-days for doubles heroics, and Tamara Zidansek is the latest sporting hero from her tiny homeland.
Iga sets her sights on an impressive record held by Justine Henin, Philipp Kohlschreiber might just make it to Tokyo, and a pair of extreme longshots set up lopsided battles in the men’s third round.
Serena advances past a pair of Romanians, a bunch of North American men survive to see the third round, and the era of the Four Musketeers winds down.
The draw has become much more inviting for the underrated Kudermetova, Andrey Rublev suffers another clay-court loss he barely deserved, and Aleksandra Krunic forces Coco Gauff to play marathon set.
Martinez stops Sebastian Korda, Garbine Muguruza suffers a rare loss to a low-ranked player on clay, and Jelena Ostapenko once again heads home early.
Qualifier Alex Molcan finds a chink in Novak Djokovic’s armor, Barbora Krejcikova follows an unusual career trajectory, and Alexander Zverev gets some extra practice on Lenglen.
Tsitsipas is the favorite to reach the Roland Garros final from the bottom half of the bracket, Aryna Sabalenka leads a long list of women with a good shot to win a first major title, and Carlos Taberner looks to ride a dominant qualifying performance into the main draw.
Barbora Krejcikova has a chance to win her first singles title, Cecchinato has escaped an Italian losing streak in Parma, and Naomi Osaka sets a new standard for earning power in women’s sports.
Bianca Andreescu continues her long-running clay-court winning streak, Alex Molcan gets an easy road to the Belgrade quarter-finals, and Corentin Moutet draws and quarters his way to an exhibition title.
Casper Ruud will be a top-16 seed with a top-10 game in Paris, Zvonareva is the top seed in Roland Garros qualies, and the development of Diane Parry’s game is taking place is full view.
Shapo falls short of the Geneva title despite some outstanding first-strike tennis, Ana Konjuh takes an unlikely step in her comeback, and it was a big weekend for the Shelton family at the NCAA championships.
Schwartzman struggles on his favorite surface, Qiang Wang joins an exclusive club, and Pablo Andujar doesn’t discriminate based on age.
Badosa could be the most dangerous floater in Paris, Pablo Cuevas looks to get his game back on track, and Caty McNally is a doubles wizard regardless of who she partners.
A round-of-32 match in Lyon sets a high standard of quality, Katerina Siniakova reminds us she can be dangerous once every year or two, and a small army of qualifiers make a mess of the draw in Belgrade.
Gauff is even better than her ranking suggests, Benjamin Bonzi is the only true wild card at a French tournament that uses their freebies wisely, and at another men’s tournament this week, a 39-year-old is the top seed.
The Rafa-Novak final in Rome is tighter than usual, Iga Swiatek delivers an extremely unlikely result, and Baby Fed turns 30.
Opelka’s success in Rome suggests he has skills that the stats don’t bear out, and 60 years ago this week, an armada of past and future stars gathered on hard courts in Los Angeles.
Sofia Kenin’s losing streak continues, Davidovich Fokina steadily climbs the ATP ranks, and a few men are raising hopes for an eventual Italian titlist in Rome.
Sorribes Tormo fights through another marathon to face a familiar foe today, Dusan Lajovic struggles on his best surface, and we take a look back at a Norwegian multi-sport athlete from the 1910s.
P3tra comes back for a roller-coaster battle with Magda Linette, American men have faded even on hard courts, Serena Williams looks ahead to an opponent with clay-court experience.
Zverev barely gives his opponents a chance, Aryna Sabalenka forces the clay to play her way, and the 2021 ATP Masters Series is a young man’s game.
Ruud narrowly upsets Stefanos Tsitsipas, Aryna Sabalenka posts a series of eye-popping winner totals, and Nuno Borges is back down to ITF 15Ks.
Schwartzman loses another lopsided battle against Aslan Karatsev, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova finally benefits from the luck of the tiebreak, and Rafael Nadal finds new opponents to beat on clay.
Sabalenka has barely broken a sweat in Madrid, Benoit Paire breaks a dreadful losing streak, and Barbora Strycova says goodbye to the tour.
Ramos wins his third ATP title against left-handed competition, Petra Kvitova guns for another upset in Madrid, and Marcos Giron is the hardest-working man on the Iberian peninsula.
Dominic Thiem is back on tour, Barty-Swiatek is one of several first time meetings in the Madrid round of 16, and Jan Lennard Struff reaches his first final.
Cam Norrie is returning better than ever, the Madrid women’s draw is packed with qualifiers, and Dustin Brown is still standing in a tour-level doubles draw.
Cilic has encouraging histories against his next opponents in Estoril, Roberto Carballes Baena puts the LL in Carballes, and it’s 70 years since Nancy Chaffee nearly beat Maureen Connolly--three times.
Osaka’s clay-court results suggest greater things in store, Corentin Moutet takes a roundabout path to victory, and Alexander Zverev looks to catch back up with his peers.
Daniil Medvedev has overtaken Novak Djokovic on one important list, Sorana Cirstea adds to a long list of upsets, and Brooksby dominates two weeks of Challengers in Florida.
Aslan Karatsev climbs another rung on the ladder, Rafael Nadal conquers Stefanos Tsitsipas—and yet another historic achievement, and Ashleigh Barty soaks up the power in an up-and-down final.
Elise Mertens is a favorite’s favorite in Istanbul, Barcelona’s final eight is dauntingly strong, and Svitolina tries to do to Petra Kvitova what she’s already done to Angelique Kerber.
Rafa needs an extra set to get through his Barcelona opener, Ashleigh Barty is back on the European clay, and the Sabanov twins are an overnight success--13 years in the making.
Halep hopes this is her breakthrough year in Stuttgart, Ivo Karlovic plays like he’s still 39, and Angela Mortimer celebrates a birthday.
Novak Djokovic leads a Serb-heavy field in Belgrade, a German qualifier wades into the adult pool in Stuttgart, and the ATP Race keeps getting younger.
Tsitsipas claims his first Masters 1000 title, Mihaela Buzarnescu is the BJK Cup’s first marathon woman, and Rafael Nadal will try again in Barcelona.
Djokovic loses early in Monte Carlo, Linda Fruhvirtova reaches her first WTA quarterfinal, and it’s a good day to remember the contributions of Dr Robert Walter Johnson.
Ruud barely breaks a sweat to reach the Monte Carlo round of 16, Shelby Rogers excels in a tournament that Ash Barty skipped, and Rafael Nadal chases his 12th Monte Carlo title.
The draw gods smiled on Filip Krajinovic, while they handed Novak Djokovic an opening match with Jannik Sinner. Also: A tweak to the WTA ranking point structure is a small step in the right direction.
Alex De Minaur loses another clay court match, France drops another rung in the WTA power rankings, and women’s tennis returns to Cleveland after almost half a century.
Local heroes nearly run the table at tour events, Veronika Kudermetova wins her first title, and the draw gods in Monte Carlo deliver a tasty first-rounder.
Kvitova’s serve deserts her in a third-round loss to Danka Kovinic, Jaume Munar keeps winning on the sweet, sweet clay, and the Charleston event’s history goes back to an unprecedented prize purse nearly 50 years ago.
Alcaraz wasn’t born yet when his opponent today first cracked the top 100, Sofia Kenin suffers another disappointing loss, and the Bogota draw leaves me feeling light-headed.
Arruabarrena is off to a flyer in Bogota, Dan Evans is the unlikely top seed at a clay event, and Nuno Borges tries to bring his winning ways to the Challenger tour.
Errani and Sorribes Tormo play in Bogota, Sebastian Korda’s new career-best ranking underrates him, and Matteo Berrettini makes a rare appearance on the doubles court.
Sinner’s recent first serve numbers indicate untapped potential, Ashleigh Barty is finally facing top-ten opponents again, and Mate Pavic is your new ATP doubles #1.
Rublev is climbing up the first-serve leaderboard, Bianca Andreescu escapes her closest Miami match yet, and a young Brit survives a four-hour match in India.
Maria Sakkari closes in on the best-ever WTA ranking for a Greek player, Daniil Medvedev’s loss opens the door to a new Masters titlist, and Iga Swiatek looks awfully good on the doubles court.
Next week’s ATP rankings will feature a new American #1, Ashleigh Barty closes out Aryna Sabalenka in style, and Alexander Bublik needs to figure out how to return Jannik Sinner’s serve.
Jessica Pegula fails to follow up a big upset for the third straight tournament, Karatsev hands an easy win to Sebastian Korda, and iron woman Sara Sorribes Tormo is learning to make the best of hard courts.
Medvedev needs two and half hours to reach the round of 16, Ana Konjuh is picking up where she left off in 2017, and Dominic Stricker triggers comparisons with better-known Swiss tennis players.
Aryna Sabalenka maintains her perfect record after losing a first-set bagel, Kristina Kucova takes not converting match point to a new level, and one of the best matchups in women’s tennis will be part of the Miami third round.
Jelena Ostapenko overcomes both her opponent and her serve, Rendy Lu makes a long-awaited return to the winner’s circle, and a pair of prospects take a step forward at the Lugano Challenger.
Simona Halep is one of the many singles stars who are doubling up in Miami this year, Marton Fucsovics is a race-to-Turin top tenner flying under the radar, and it was a rough opening day for American women yesterday.
Fernandez makes an early exit from Miami only one day after a triumph in Monterrey, Lorenzo Musetti joins a growing battalion of Italian men, and Juan Martin del Potro goes under the knife one more time.
Karatsev outhits the field to win the Dubai title and improve his record on the season to 15-2, Daria Kasatkina is combining small-scale comebacks into a bigger one, and the Miami field will be just fine, if a little less glamorous than usual.
Margarita Gasparyan charges into the St Petersburg quarter-finals behind an eye-popping one-handed backhand, El Shapo leaves his opponents helpless on return, and Wimbledon announces a timetable to finally move its qualifying tournaments on site.
Stefanos Tsitsipas leaves no doubt that he can handle the unique challenge of John Isner, Anastasia Gasanova and Vera Zvonareva get through their St. Petersburg matches the hard way, and it’s 98 years since the birth of a remarkable figure in Norwegian tennis.
The Italian teen scores his first top-ten win, the WTA Monterrey field has an improbable favorite, and fans will have to wait for clay season for their next glimpse of Rafael Nadal or Dominic Thiem.
The St. Petersburg draw leaves little room for foreign challengers, Cristian Garin prefers to keep his clay court points short, and the upcoming Miami Open will feature a global assortment of IMG clients.
Muguruza’s Dubai title makes her computer ranking look even more outdated, Nikoloz Basilashvili and Cristian Garin reverse their losing streaks in style, and the ATP is putting an impressive amount of prize money in the pockets of its players.
An unconverted break point puts Roger Federer’s comeback on pause, Elise Mertens stops the momentum of another lower-ranked player, and Andrey Rublev rests his way into the Doha semi-finals.
A trio of wild cards are proving that they belong in Dubai and Guadalajara, Dominic Thiem is flying under the radar as the top seed in Doha, and Jessica Pegula has mastered the art of dismissing Karolina Pliskova.
We’ll soon get a look at how 39-year-old Federer stacks up against veterans of the past, Coco Gauff is learning to love third sets, and Aryna Sabalenka joins an extremely crowded list of active doubles number ones.
Rublev continues his winning ways just outside of the sport’s biggest stages, Misaki Doi is more than the usual lucky loser, and Frances Tiafoe comes through a nailbiter in Santiago.
Tauson follows in the imposing footsteps of Caroline Wozniacki, Zizou Bergs leads a pack of qualifiers to unlikely feats, and Dubai becomes the first 1000-level event in the WTA’s puzzling new system.
Jessica Pegula deals Karolina Pliskova her worst loss in recent memory, Francisco Cerundolo tries to keep up with his younger brother, and Marcus Willis officially says goodbye.
Garbine Muguruza and Aryna Sabalenka deliver a high-quality match, all the remaining seeds in the Rotterdam top half are gone, and Sumit Nagal goes where few Indians have gone before.
Frances Tiafoe and Sumit Nagal make Buenos Aires an unusually international affair, Alex De Minaur needs 44 shots to put away John Millman, and Muguruza gets another round-of-16 draw worthy of a final.
Clara Tauson scores a breakthrough victory in Lyon, Alexander Bublik sets a new standard for hopeless returning in Singapore, and Djokovic topples another one of Roger Federer’s all-time records.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo makes Argentinian tennis history, Iga Swiatek proves she’s more than a one-hit wonder, and Rotterdam kicks off with a slightly depleted field.
Iga Swiatek cruises into her first hard-court final, Schwartzman is in position to finally hoist a trophy in his home country, and Simona Halep reaches another career milestone.
Benoit Paire gets back in the win column, Gauff wins her closest three-setter so far, and return king Lleyton Hewitt is headed to the Hall of Fame.
Collins ousts top-seed Ashleigh Barty down under, another teenager makes his presence known on the ATP tour, and Miami announces the pay cut awaiting their champions.
Jarry returns to tour-level competition with a win after an 11-month drug suspension, the ATP returns to Singapore with an uninspiring field, and former NCAA star Nicole Gibbs calls time on her tennis career.
Rafael Nadal has a fight on his hands to retain a spot just behind Novak Djokovic in the rankings, Naomi Osaka’s second-week performance at slams defies historical precedent, and Coco Gauff is no standard-issue qualifier at this week’s Adelaide International.
Djokovic brushes aside Daniil Medvedev with a performance for the ages, Roger Federer should get comfortable with the idea of a lower place on the all-time slam list, and a flurry of younger prospects have excelled this week at Challengers around the world.
The 23-year-old Japanese star continues her dominance in the biggest matches, Rajeev Ram and Barbora Krejcikova are the king and queen of Melbourne doubles, and Daniil Medvedev enters tomorrow’s final with scary numbers.
The fast-rising Russian extends his array of win streaks, Sabalenka and Mertens win a farewell title, and Naomi Osaka looks ahead to yet another match against a player ranked outside of the top ten.
Osaka continues to be the only active player with Serena’s number, Jennifer Brady advances to her first major final by the narrowest of margins, and Novak Djokovic is back in his happy place.
Rafael Nadal suffers a rare five-set defeat, Daniil Medvedev continues to beat the best in the game, and the 22nd and 25th seeds set up an unlikely women’s semi-final.
The men’s top seed continues to battle through injury with an impressive display of serving, Serena Williams moves one match closer to her 24th slam, and no one is asking Aslan Karatsev the tough questions.
The men’s fourth round concludes with two drubbings and two injuries, Karolina Muchova keeps on winning the close ones, and Bianca Andreescu leads the field in a de facto resuscitation of the grand slam consolation draw.
Iga Swiatek’s grand slam set streak ends, Aslan Karatsev goes from qualifier to quarterfinalist, and Hsieh Su Wei sets a new standard for what a 35-year-old doubles specialist is capable of.
Rafa records another in a long line of victories against his fellow southpaws, Jessica Pegula takes another big step forward, and the Australian Open starts a five-day spell without fans
The third seed ousts a home favorite with a glittering serving display, the bottom half of the women’s draw is more than half full of former slam champions, and Su-Wei Hsieh wins an upside-down match against Sara Errani.
Sofia Kenin’s Australian Open title defense ends at the hands of the Estonian upset master, Thanasi Kokkinakis offers four hours of evidence that he’s finally healthy, and Andy Murray toils 9,000 miles away at a Challenger in Italy.
Serena takes two easy steps toward her 24th major title, Reilly Opelka fires another barrage of aces in a losing effort, and Barbora Krejcikova opens her pursuit of a first unmixed title in Australia.
The women’s top seed records a flawless start to the tournament, the experienced Feliciano Lopez withstands belated newcomer Li Tu, and Sloane Stephens finds a new way to lose.
Bianca Andreescu has a winning return after a 15-month layoff, Nick Kyrgios defies the odds with success on both sides of the ball, and almost everybody—even Bernard Tomic—gets through day one injury-free.
Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev place Team Russia at the top of the international heap, Felix Auger Aliassime’s final-round struggles continue, and Serena Williams chases a record that, adjusted for common sense, she has already passed.
Garbine Muguruza posts her fourth-straight easy victory, Felix Auger Aliassime is hitting untouchable first serves, and Sofia Kenin will have to beat the odds to defend her Australian Open title.
Some of the biggest names on the women's tour advance via the just-instituted third-set match tiebreak, Khachanov will play Jannik Sinner in the only meeting between seeds in Saturday's men's semi-finals, and Tony Trabert leaves a legacy of excellent play and longtime service to the game.
Thursday's action in Melbourne was canceled due to a positive coronavirus test, Dayana Yastremska won't be returning to action anytime soon, and Benoit Paire gets back in the swing of things with an ignominious service game.
We begin the countdown to Roger Federer's return, a teenager goes where only Richard Gasquet has gone before, and a passel of grand slam winners fail to reach this week's quarter-finals. The pilot episode of Expected Points from @tennisabstract.