FX Talk - an Ebury podcast: Recent Episodes
Ebury FX Talk
The euro goes up, the dollar goes down, and China devalues the yuan. But what's behind these currency fluctuations? This forex podcast is all about the global currency market. Our three financial market analysts, who are also top Bloomberg forecasters, discuss macro-economic news and its effect on the global financial market - providing you with insights to make informed decisions. *The information contained in this podcast does not constitute a recommendation from any Ebury entity to the recipient.
US-Iran peace talks have run into further trouble after President Trump declared the framework peace deal to be “over”. The ceasefire has collapsed and oil prices have jumped by around 20% so far this month. Yet the US CPI report for June surprised to the downside, suggesting that the spike in energy prices was not having the broad inflationary implications that had been previously feared. Where does that leave the Federal Reserve?
We also turn our attention to the Japanese yen, which is trading around the levels that have previously triggered FX intervention from Japanese authorities. Will this be enough to prop up the yen? Or is there fresh downside in store?
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Britain is set for its fifth prime minister in four years following the resignation of Keir Starmer. With Andy Burnham destined to land the top job in Downing Street, we discuss what impact the new leader could have on the pound and gilt markets.
The dollar, meanwhile, has surged higher since the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting, the first since the appointment for Kevin Warsh as the new FOMC chair. What do our analysts make of the hawkish announcement?
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Despite some encouraging signs of progress, the Iran war continues to drag on without a clear end in sight. Investors are exhibiting an element of headline fatigue, as the sort of headlines that would have previously been greeted with wild gyrations in markets are now being either roundly ignored or treated with caution. EUR/USD has subsequently traded within a tight range - we discuss what could trigger a breakout.
This month is also a big month in the UK. The Bank of England looks set to hold policy steady, but the real focus will be on the Makerfield by-election. A victory for Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham could clear his path to Number 10. But what does this mean for the pound and gilts?
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The era of central bank consensus appears to be over. In this episode of FX Talk, we dive into a hectic week of monetary policy decisions that saw the "Big Three" hold rates steady while revealing deep internal fractures.
We start with the Federal Reserve, where an 8-4 split marks the most divided FOMC in decades. As Kevin Warsh prepares to take center stage, we analyse whether his tenure will prioritise balance sheet action over traditional rate hikes.
Across the pond, the ECB finds itself in a stagflationary trap; caught between a June hike and the economic fallout of the conflict in Iran. Finally, we look at the Bank of England, where a high-profile dissent from Chief Economist Huw Pill suggests the UK may soon hike rates to combat stubborn inflationary pressures. As the transatlantic policy gap widens, the roadmap for FX volatility in 2026 is being rewritten.
Join us as we decode the dissent and what it means for your global exposure!
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Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief following the news of an eleventh hour ceasefire between the US and Iran. But is this the beginning of a genuine off-ramp, or just a brief intermission before the next act?
In this week's episode, we dig into what the ceasefire actually means for markets: will the US dollar sell-off continue? Does the move lower in oil prices have more room to run? How could the news impact global growth and inflation? And what could it mean for central bank rates? Have a listen to find out our thoughts on these and more!
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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT.
We are delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Simon French - Chief Economist and Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and regular columnist at The Times.
On today’s episode, we unpack the implications of the ongoing war in Iran. How could the volatility in global oil prices impact inflation, and how might central banks around the world respond to the shock?
Simon also discusses the deeper inflationary and growth problem in the UK associated with a rationing of factors of production. What policies are exacerbating Britain’s inflation problem? Why are rising global energy prices hitting the UK harder than its peers? And what can be done to address the issue?
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Global trade has been thrown into fresh chaos following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which deemed President Trump’s IEEPA tariffs to be illegal. The reaction in financial markets has been relatively calm so far, as not only were investors prepared for the verdict, but they fully expected the president to pursue alternative methods to achieve his trade objectives.
The future of ECB President Lagarde has also been thrown in doubt following a FT report released last week, which suggested that she could be considering leaving her post before the end of her term. Meanwhile, sterling has faced headwinds from UK political uncertainty and rising expectations that the Bank of England will slash rates again at its next meeting in March.
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Following months of speculation, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh has been named as the next chair of the FOMC - how could his appointment impact US rates, Fed autonomy and the dollar? Meanwhile, the massive supermajority victory for Japan’s PM Sanae Takaichi at the weekend’s election has triggered a sharp rebound in the yen - what has instigated the move?
We also discuss the implications of the strong January nonfarm payrolls report. What does the data mean for the US labour market and the path of US rates?
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The Sell America trade returned with a vengeance last week after President Trump threatened eight European countries with fresh tariffs for their stance over Greenland. While his entirely predictable U-turn was greeted positively by equities and bond markets, the dollar has continued to lose ground, why?
The Japanese yen has rallied sharply amid mounting speculation of a rare coordinated intervention from US and Japanese authorities to prop up the yen. Meanwhile, the race to be named the next Fed chair is hotting up, with a surprise candidate now seemingly the front runner.
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2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year?
Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We also give our thoughts on the currencies that we think will over and underperform in the coming twelve months.
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The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026?
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meeting, despite the lack of data releases due to the US government shutdown. We give our thoughts ahead of the meeting, and speculate as to the implications of Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as the next chair of the FOMC.
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The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026?
In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to hash out a trade deal. But, will we see a deal, another delay or a collapse in the negotiations? We also cast an eye on the outlook for the Argentine peso following the strong support for President Milei at the weekend’s midterm elections.
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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on today’s episode by Peel Hunt’s Chief Economist Kallum Pickering. Kallum brings with himself well over a decade of experience as an economist in London and is a regular commentator in the financial markets space, having made many appearances down the years on the likes of Bloomberg and CNBC. He also has regular columns in the Telegraph, the Spectator and the Evening Standard.
This week, we chat about global bond markets, fiscal policy and the current predicament that governments find themselves in. Debt levels are rising, borrowing costs are increasing and ageing populations are putting a stain on the public coffers. But what does this mean for the global economy, and how can authorities address the issue? We also give our thoughts on what to expect at November’s UK Autumn Budget.
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Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve’s latest decision?
Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joined the Fed in cutting interest rates.
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SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us all!
In markets, the dollar sank following the release of another soft US payrolls report. What does the data tell us about the state of the world’s largest economy? And how will the Fed respond at its upcoming meeting next week?
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar?
Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the implications of last week’s worrisome UK inflation figures for both the pound and Bank of England interest rates.
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The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the pound, which continues to underperform most of its major peers.
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FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two.
In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s tariffs deadline and try to figure out what’s next for the pound as markets bet on more Labour tax hikes in the autumn. Our analysts also say whether they would buy, sell or hold the Australian dollar, which last week soared following the RBA’s unexpected interest rate hold.
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Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for policy. Meanwhile, the latest data suggests that Britain’s labour market appears to be faltering, but what does this mean for the UK economy and the pound?
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The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years.
Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is holding up remarkably well. Will a US recession be avoided in 2025? And what do the latest UK data surprises mean for the Bank of England and the pound?
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US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis points last week. MPC members appear perhaps as divided as ever over the path ahead for UK rates. The bank’s communications were hawkish, however, suggesting that a “gradual” pace of cuts lies ahead. But, what does this mean for sterling?
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The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency?
We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is the world’s largest economy on course to post a shock contraction in the first quarter? And is a US recession inevitable in 2025?
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It’s been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of volatility in markets, and some stocks indices posted among their largest one-day rallies this century.
We’ve seen a non-typical reaction in financial markets, however. The traditional safe-havens, US Treasuries and the dollar, have sold-off aggressively, with investors seemingly losing faith in American exceptionalism. The euro has emerged as a de facto safe-haven, and EUR/USD has soared to its strongest position in three years. What do our analysts make of the chaotic week in markets? And what might happen next?
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In this week’s episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone?
Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a massive fiscal stimulus package in Germany. Is this a game changing moment for the Euro Area economy and the common currency?
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President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news?
Meanwhile, last week’s Ukraine discussions in the White House descended into a farce. European currencies are performing well, however, as markets take an optimistic view on the situation. What do our analysts make of an extraordinary hectic couple of weeks in financial markets?
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The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook?
Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, investors are skeptical that the negotiations will lead to anything more than a temporary pause in the conflict, which is acting to keep the rally in risk in check. Our analysts discuss all the latest developments and more in the latest episode of FX Talk.
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Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour.
But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff threats merely a negotiating ploy? And how could markets react to the imposition of trade restrictions on the European Union?
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Ton-up! FX Talk has reached a century of episodes! In this special podcast recording, we take a trip down memory lane and discuss some of the most memorable moments from our time covering financial markets. From the panic caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis, to the Brexit vote, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine.
Our analysts also shed some light on how they began following markets, while discussing some of the aspects that they enjoy the most about their current roles. We also provide some advice and tips to notice investors that are looking to gain a better understanding of currency markets.
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2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown.
But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point for investors this year? How could the global economy perform, and which currencies do we think will under- and outperform in 2025? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out!
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2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we’ve seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker.
Our analysts give their thoughts on the main developments in markets this year, while also discussing the December policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England.
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The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration.
The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outlook for the common currency, following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. But, what does this political wrangling mean for the European Central Bank?
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Donald Trump has once again outperformed the polls and romped home to a comfortable victory in the US presidential election. Markets were bracing for a knife-edge vote but, in reality, it was anything but, with Trump set to win in all seven battleground states once the final results are confirmed.
The US dollar soared across the board, posting its largest one-day rally since the Brexit vote in 2016. But, what does the election mean for the US and global economies? And what do our analysts make of the reaction thus far in the FX market? Listen to our US election special to find out more!
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November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone.
But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean for the US dollar and emerging market currencies? Our analysts give their thoughts on these questions and more in this US election special.
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The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts.
In this week’s episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the fallout from some surprisingly dovish comments from governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.
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The Federal Reserve surprised markets last week, delivering a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut. Yet, the bank’s famous ‘dot plot’ of interest rate projections was moderately more hawkish than expected, which limited the downside in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England held rates steady, emphasising again that additional cuts are likely to be gradual. This has helped propel the pound to its strongest position since the Brexit vote in trade-weighted terms.
The euro has lagged behind its UK counterpart, particularly following the collapse in this week’s Euro Area PMI figures. Does this point to another period of stagnation ahead, and could the data force the ECB to deliver back-to-back cuts? Our analysts give their thoughts in this week’s FX Talk episode.
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The dollar has had a wretched summer thus far, as investors fret over the possibility of a US recession amid signs of a cooling in the country’s labour market. In this week’s FX Talk episode, our analysts outline whether these economic slowdown concerns are overdone, or indeed justified.
They also look ahead to a highly important period of trading in financial markets. This includes breaking down the possible implications of the August nonfarm payrolls report on Federal Reserve interest rates, while discussing the potential impact of the upcoming Harris-Trump televised debate on currency markets.
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The Bank of England slashed its policy rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2020 on Thursday in a narrow 5-4 vote. While this was not fully priced in by markets, the bank’s statement struck a cautious note on future cuts, warning that rates would not be lowered too much or too quickly. This partly allowed GBP to hold its own following the decision.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, but chair Powell firmly hinted at a cut at the next meeting in September, which now appears set in stone. The Bank of Japan also hiked interest rates this week, but what does this mean for the global FX carry trade?
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The last few weeks have been action packed in financial markets. Political news has been front and centre following elections in the UK and France, and the shocking assassination attempt on Donald Trump over the weekend. While the dollar received a modest boost on the growing likelihood of a Trump election win, the greenback is trading lower on most currencies globally so far this month following the miss in the June US inflation report.
But is a September interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve now set in stone? And what could a Trump election victory mean for markets? We answer these questions, and provide our thoughts on the stellar performance in the pound, which remains the best performing major currency in the world in 2024.
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Activity in the FX market since our last episode has been largely dominated by political jitters, with both France and Britain to go to the polls in crucial elections in the coming weeks. While the UK general election appears a foregone conclusion, the French legislative elections are anything but. We break down the possible scenarios of the latter, and discuss what kind of impact the vote could have on the euro, which has underperformed its peers since the election was called.
We also discuss the fallout from the June meetings of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. When will the FOMC pull the trigger on lower US rates? And will the ECB deliver one or two additional cuts in 2024? Tune in to hear our thoughts!
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2024 looks set to go down in the history books as one of the most significant years in global politics in modern times, with almost half of the world’s population to take to the polls in some capacity. A historic rematch between current US President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump looks highly likely when Americans take to the polls in November. As things stand, markets are almost entirely in the dark as to who will come out on top, and it is also similarly unclear as to which party will control the two houses that make up Congress.
The UK general election also looks set to take place later in the year. While the Labour Party appears highly likely to secure enough seats for a comfortable majority, the reaction in sterling to a change from the status quo is not necessarily set in stone. We discuss the possible economic, political and currency ramifications of these two votes, while also giving our thoughts ahead of the European Parliament elections, set to be held in June.
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The FX market has been sparked back into life in the past fortnight. A bout of strong data out of the US economy, notably the March inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports, has led markets to push back their timetable for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Heightened tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s missile attack on Israel has also triggered safe-haven flows into the dollar, which has jumped to its strongest position against its major peers since November.
But, when do we see the Fed easing policy this year, if at all? And what could an escalation in the Middle East conflict mean for the global economy, financial markets and currencies? Listen to this week’s episode to find out our thoughts!
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March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations.
The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of England delivered a ‘dovish hold’, hinting that lower UK rates could be on the way in the not too distant future. But when could the MPC deliver its first interest rate cut?
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The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data.
The coming week looks set to be a highly eventful one, with several major central banks announcing their latest policy decisions. Could either the Federal Reserve or Bank of England hint at lower rates ahead? And will the Bank of Japan deliver its first rate hike since 2007?
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In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March seems highly unlikely.
Lastly, we discuss our view on the Chilean peso - one of the worst performing currencies in the world so far in 2024. Has the sell-off in the peso gone too far? Or is there room for an additional depreciation in the currency?
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The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy?
Elsewhere, Japan’s economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The dollar, meanwhile, remains the best performing major currency in the world, as a hotter-than-expected US inflation report suggested that the Federal Reserve could wait until at least its June policy meeting before it begins lowering interest rates.
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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
0.57 - Basics of Exchange Rates
2:50 - Bid and Offer Rates
3.57 - Types of Analysis
5.36 - FX Trading and Orders
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In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales and a formidable fourth-quarter GDP report, play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. Surprisingly, despite hawkish communications from the Bank of Japan, the JPY lags behind, while the EUR and GBP manage to hold up relatively well, with the latter performing particularly well this year.
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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
0.55 - How the foreign exchange market operates
4:10 - Market dynamics and participants
5.55 - Role of liquidity providers
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In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the global economy, and discuss the arguments in favour of both stronger and weaker growth in 2024.
Our episode ends with our analysts providing their predictions for the currencies that they believe will both over- and underperform in 2024. Is the Japanese yen poised for a rebound, and which emerging market currencies could struggle this year? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out our thoughts!
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In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress’ had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot’ was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. Markets embraced the narrative of imminent and rapid rate reductions, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar against most currencies.
We also give our thoughts on the December policy announcements from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while each picking the currencies that have surprised us the most in 2023.
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We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off in the dollar, which fell by more than 2% against its major peers. EUR/USD is trading at August highs above $1.09, while sterling has climbed back above the $1.25 level, despite last week’s drop in UK inflation.
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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
1. Barter System and Gold Coins
2. Gold Standard Era
3. Bretton Woods Agreement
4. Evolution to Modern Currencies
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We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report.
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, although Powell expressed caution due to the increase in Treasury yields and a lag in policy transmission. Meanwhile, the Bank of England slashed its 2024 GDP forecast, warning that the UK economy was set to flatline next year.
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The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions.
Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes.
However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the past week, partly due to stronger US inflation figures. The euro is hovering just above 10-month lows, reflecting concerns about the state of the Eurozone economy. The British pound is also struggling, with a soft UK GDP report and vague comments from Bank of England members providing little clarity on UK interest rates.
Among the G10 currencies, safe-havens like the US dollar and Swiss franc have been the best performers in the past week.
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September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations.
On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although indicating in its ‘dot plot’ that it foresees one final hike by year-end. These hawkish communications, and recent strong US data, have led to a sharp move higher in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising to a 16-year high around 4.8%.
This has triggered an aggressive rally in the US dollar against almost every other currency. The USD index has risen by more than 6.5% since mid-July to its highest level since November.
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In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP, PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their highs against USD. Last week's business activity PMI data from the UK and EZ have been underwhelming and have fallen into contraction, indicating further economic difficulties.
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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
1. Understanding exchange rates
2. Floating systems
3. Fixed exchange rates
4. Impact of Central Banks
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August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss.
Over the past few weeks, headlines have been dominated by the meetings of the G4 central banks, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 25 basis points at its July meeting. This comes after offering indications that it may cease raising rates, following evident signs of U.S. inflation easing. In the same vein, the European Central Bank adopted an unexpectedly dovish stance. Notably, Lagarde refrained from committing to any hikes, suggesting a potential pause from September onwards.
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The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis.
Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021.
The sell-off in the USD can be attributed to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate hikes by this summer. The expectation currently stands at a 25 basis point hike in July, with the date projected for 26/07. However, indications suggest this could be the last hike in the current cycle, with futures showing a 1-in-4 chance by November.
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Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
1. Explanation of GDP and its importance.
2. Methods to calculate GDP.
3. Components of the Expenditure Approach.
4. Impact of GDP on foreign exchange.
5. Timely indicators and labor market data.
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Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more rate hikes in the US without any cuts in the near term. Lagarde has practically confirmed an ECB hike in July. In other news, the Australian dollar has rebounded despite the unexpected decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged in their July meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has approached new lows despite speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market (more on that in a later episode). However, the primary focus of this week's episode will be on emerging markets.
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In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July. Despite these hawkish stances, the dollar sold off across the board, leaving the hosts to consider why this underperformance occurred.
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In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations.
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Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!
Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
- Definition and explanation of inflation
- Measurement of inflation
- Types of inflation
- Terminology related to inflation
- Importance of inflation data and central bank's role
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We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven flows into the greenback. We also discuss the ongoing negotiations in Washington around the debt ceiling and why they are so important for the markets. Additionally, we analyze the relative performance of the Eurozone and the UK economies and how it may impact the euro's performance against the pound.
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Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is still data-dependent, whereas the BoE voted to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting. Despite this, the pound and euro have been the two best-performing currencies in the G10 so far in 2023.
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Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!
Our FX 101 series provides a strong foundation of knowledge and terminology to better understand the more in-depth discussions and analysis covered in our regular episodes of FX Talk. By offering a range of topics and insights, FX 101 helps you build a solid understanding of FX and its complexities, and ultimately serves as a starting point in doing business without borders.
This episode will cover:
- What are central banks?
- What is the purpose of central banks?
- How do central banks set monetary policy
- Why do central banks change interest rates?
- How do central bank rates impact currencies?
- The importance of central bank foreign exchange reserves
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Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentiment is high, with most currencies performing well against safe havens, and there has been a broad sell-off of the USD. We'll also discuss the signs of continued cooling in US inflation, which has contributed to the expectation that the Fed may soon end its hiking cycle. So, sit back, relax, and let's dive into the latest news in the FX market.
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In this episode, we discuss the recent banking turmoil, specifically the failure of SVB and its impact on the market. SVB's sensitivity to interest rate risk and its investment in long-duration bonds led to a significant mark-to-market hole in its balance sheet, causing depositors and investors to withdraw their funds en masse. This panic has contributed to the troubles faced by Credit Suisse, but we believe these failures are one-offs rather than systemic issues. While the market has stabilized, we must closely monitor the situation. In terms of central bank rate hikes, there is a delicate balancing act between banking uncertainty and inflation. Markets are only pricing in one more 25bp move from the Fed, but we believe the ECB and BoE still have room to go.
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Today's focus is on the major data that has reshaped expectations for central bank interest rates. Generally, we're observing two things: the activity data is holding up better than expected, and inflation is proving more persistent than hoped. As a consequence, markets are bracing for higher rates for a longer period.
Let's start with the US. We have seen a string of positive surprises in recent macroeconomic data. The latest reports on GDP, retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and inflation have all exceeded expectations in the past month. Even the latest services PMI from the Institute for Supply Management beat consensus and was comfortably above 50. Initial jobless claims and new claims for unemployment benefits have fallen again, with no significant uptick in layoffs, despite ongoing recession concerns.
What does this mean for the markets? Investors have gone from pricing in one to two additional Fed hikes to now expecting three to four. Even FOMC Chair Powell has opened up the possibility of a 50bp return in March.
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Since the last episode, the markets have experienced a relatively quiet period, with most major currencies trading within narrow ranges. There were, however, some exceptions in Scandinavia, where certain currencies rallied sharply. For instance, the Swedish krona jumped following a hawkish announcement from Riksbank. On the other end of the scale, the euro underperformed and was the only G10 currency that failed to rally against the US dollar.
That being said, there has been a noticeable increase in volatility around this week's main event, the US inflation report for January, which is due to be released on Tuesday.
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The current trading environment is marked by volatility and choppiness, with most currencies trading within tight ranges throughout January. This can be attributed to a combination of the absence of major news events and anticipation surrounding announcements from central banks such as the Fed, ECB, and BoE.
Starting with the Fed, their latest move was in line with expectations - a smaller 25bp hike was announced on Wednesday, following a 50bp hike in December. This move was heavily telegraphed and already priced in, with no updated projections or dot plot released. The focus was instead on the Fed's communications.
The Fed's statement remained largely unchanged, and speculation surrounding a tweak to the language regarding "ongoing rate increases" proved to be unfounded. Powell's comments were considered dovish, with a focus on the Fed's "no desire to overtighten" and acknowledgement that a "disinflationary process" had begun in the US.
The market reaction was swift, with a selling of the USD across the board. The USD Index saw a drop of nearly 1% on Wednesday, and the EUR/USD broke above the $1.10 level for the first time since April. However, the dollar has since recovered sharply and we will discuss the reasons for this shortly.
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At the moment, the key theme in currencies is an improvement in risk sentiment and an appreciation in high-risk currencies, at the expense of lower-risk ones, such as the US dollar. The USD index has hit a June 2022 low and has fallen more than 10% since October, as the Federal Reserve slows its hiking cycle and global recession fears abate. Among the better performers, currencies closely linked to China have been doing well. In the G10, the Australian dollar has been doing particularly well. Among emerging market currencies, some Asian currencies, notably the Thai baht, have seen a strong performance. The Brazilian real and Chilean peso in Latin America, which rely heavily on China's demand, are also outperforming. Later in this podcast, we will delve into China's reopening and examine the winners and losers of that development.
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What can we expect this year? The narrative in 2022 was much about central bank responses to rising inflation rates. Will that remain the case this year? Or will these central banks begin calling time on their tightening cycles. And what about the global economy? Are recession indeed on the way? Or will we just see modest downturns in growth?
In summary: what are the main themes to look out for in currencies in 2023? Our Market Analysts will tell you everything about it.
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China finally signs of an easing in its zero-Covid policy. It boosted the CNY and risk currencies against the USD. We see an improvement in risk sentiment and also signs of a downtrend of US inflation. We also are noticing growing expectation among investors for a dovish pivot during the Fed meeting next week.
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If you’re following financial markets at the moment, there really is very little chance to catch your breath. Since our last episode, the market sentiment has improved and investors dialed back expectations for US rate hikes, weighed significantly on the dollar.
Meanwhile, the October US inflation report is much softer than expected. The big question is: What does that mean for the US dollar?
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According to the BoE, further increases in interest rates may be required to bring inflation back down to target, but the bank stated that the peak in rates would be '‘lower than priced into financial markets''.
On the UK economy, the BoE once again struck a sombre note. In its statement, the MPC spoke of a ‘very challenging’ outlook for the UK economy, mentioning the tightening in financial conditions since August. The committee also warned that the economy may already be in recession, and that this could last until the middle of 2024, which would be the longest recession since records began.
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Last time we spoke about the reaction in the pound to the budget and the potential impact of the tax cuts on the economy. Since then, we have seen one of the most dramatic U-turns in British political history. Most of the tax cuts (around 80%) that were announced have now been reversed.
How have markets reacted? Sterling posted decent gains and UK bond yields have stabilized. Big question for us: What’s next for the pound? Is this U-turn a green light to a sterling rally, or do downside risks remain?
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What are the economic consequences of the mini-budget? Since the initial sell-off, the GBP has recovered in the past few sessions. What are the reasons for the recovery in the pound?
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We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk
Since our last episode, the US dollar has rallied against almost every other G10 currency, with the sole exception of the Swiss franc, which has benefitted from the hawkish turn from the Swiss National Bank. The main theme in markets has been one of risk aversion, as investors and economists pencil in weaker global growth during the remainder of 2022 and into next year.
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The main talking point has been the move below parity in EUR/USD for the first time since December 2002. The pair teetered on the brink of parity for a couple of sessions, before falling fairly comfortably below it on Thursday. A divergence in natural gas prices across the Atlantic was largely to blame for the move, with last week’s hotter-than-expected US inflation report enough to drive the pair through the key psychological level.
We have, however, seen a recovery in the euro since then, with EUR/USD moving back above the 1.02 level on rising bets in favour of a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank when it meets on Thursday.
Time flies when you’re having fun. So, this is a good chance for us to look back on the first six months of the year, and talk about our main highlights in the FX market so far this year. We then look ahead, and talk about what we expect during the remainder of 2022.
The Swiss franc was the best performing currency in the G10 last week after the SNB shocked markets by announcing a 50 basis point interest rate hike - the consensus was for no change. The bank also changed its wording on the franc, no longer calling it ‘highly valued’ and saying that it would be prepared to intervene in the market on both sides.
Markets will have one eye on next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. The Fed is set to raise rates by another 50 basis points next week and signal more hikes are coming at upcoming meetings. This will be followed by the Bank of England’s latest policy decision on Thursday.
But we’re going to focus first on Thursday’s ECB announcement, which delivered a long awaited hawkish pivot. In the bank’s statement, it explicitly said that it would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting, and follow this up with another one in September.
On the whole, most economies rebounded well from the COVID induced slowdowns in 2021, as an easing in restrictions allowed for an unleashing in pent-up demand. While the strict covid restrictions are a thing of the past for most of us, a number of other downside risks to growth have materialized of late, causing markets and central bankers to fret that a slowdown could be on the cards during the remainder of the year.
We spoke on our last episode about the sharp sell-off witnessed in risk assets in late-April, which sent most higher risk currencies lower against the safe-havens, notably the US dollar. The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a weighted basket of its peers, rose to its strongest position in almost 20 years earlier in the week, as heightened global growth concerns triggered a ‘risk off’ mode in markets.
The dollar has also continued to be well supported by expectations for higher US interest rates. At its FOMC meeting last week, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 50 basis points, as expected, the largest such move in more than two decades. The communications from chair Powell were again hawkish. He called the US labour market ‘very, very strong’, while once again saying that inflation remained ‘unacceptably high’.
In FX, we’ve seen a classic period of ‘risk off’ trading. The US dollar has been by far and away the best performing currency, rallying sharply against pretty much everything else. Most emerging market currencies are down, with the exception of the Russian ruble, some more than 4 or 5% in the past week alone.
The major currencies have also suffered rather extraordinary sell-offs, in most cases to multi-month or multi-year lows. Two of the most notable examples, and the two currencies that we’ll focus largely on today, are the pound and the euro. EUR/USD has collapsed to its lowest level in more than 5 years, and was trading below the 1.05 level this morning. Sterling, meanwhile, is trading at its lowest level since July 2020, having now sold-off by more than 4% in a little under a week.
For the most part in the last month, we’ve seen an improvement in risk sentiment - the safe-havens have generally underperformed, notably the Japanese yen, which has slumped to around its lowest level at any time since I started working in the FX industry, and at the release of this recording may well have fallen to its lowest level since 2002.
The higher risk currencies have generally rebounded, notably the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone in the G10, while among emerging markets: the Brazilian real, South African rand and (notably) the Russia ruble have led the rebound.
Investors were caught wrong-footed by news of the full-scale invasion last Thursday, despite a host of warnings, with markets holding onto misplaced optimism that a peaceful solution could be found that would avoid conflict.
In FX, almost all emerging market currencies sold-off, most rather sharply, albeit there were some exceptions (notably those in Asia, including CNY). European currencies in general have underperformed, given their proximity to the conflict and close economic ties with Russia and Ukraine.
Last week was a very eventful one of central bank announcements, with the Bank of England also holding its February monetary policy meeting on Thursday. As expected, interest rates were raised by a quarter of a percent to 0.5%, the first back to back rate increase in the UK since 2004, after rates were of course raised by 10 basis points back in December.
The euro has been one of the best performing G10 currencies in the past seven days, alongside the Swedish krona. The common currency rallied by more than one percent versus the US dollar last Thursday to back above the 1.14 level after ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a hawkish tone during the bank’s press conference.
So far in 2022, we have seen a broad rebound in most of these EM currencies, many in excess of 3% in less than 3 weeks - including the Brazilian real, South African rand and Hungarian forint. Now, while part of this recovery has to do with the broad weakness we’ve seen in the US dollar, we’ve also seen a general rebound in risk appetite, which has helped support these higher risk currencies.
The US dollar has depreciated against most of its peers so far this year. The dollar is currently trading as the worst performer in the G10 year-to-date, followed closely by the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
The main talking point in recent months has undoubtedly been the recent sharp increase in global inflation, driven largely by an unleashing of pent up demand and acute supply shortages. Price growth has continued to far exceed expectations of both central bankers and economists. Citibank’s G10 Inflation Surprise index, for instance, rose to a fresh record high in December.
The detection and aggressive spread of the omicron variant of COVID-19 has triggered a few jitters among market participants. A number of countries, particularly in Europe, have tightened restrictions over the holiday period, which has raised a few concerns over global growth. The likes of Germany and Portugal have introduced post-Christmas curbs, while the Netherlands remains under a fairly strict lockdown.
We’re going to start by talking about the most traded and popular currency pair in the foreign exchange market, and that is of course EUR/USD, which has been on a rather volatile ride in the past fortnight. The cross began November around the 1.16 level, although it has since fallen sharply and is down about 3% month-to-date to below the 1.13 level and its weakest position since July 2020.
As far as the euro is concerned, the common currency has been met with multiple headwinds. The European Central Bank has remained one of the more dovish central banks in the G10, while investors are growing concerned about the recent increase in virus caseloads in the bloc in the recent weeks.
More than half of the major G10 central banks have announced their latest policy decisions in the past couple of weeks. The Bank of Canada abruptly ended its quantitative easing programme, much sooner than the market expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia held policy steady, although indicated that it could raise rates sooner than it had previously outlined. While Norges Bank indicated that it was on course for its second pandemic era rate increase at its December meeting.
We’re going to focus on the latest policy announcements from the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, and Bank of England, which have all met since our last podcast episode.
The main talking point in financial markets continues to be the sharp increase in inflationary pressures globally. This has caused investors to both fret that a slowdown in global growth could be on the cards in Q4, and also raised expectations for central bank interest rate hikes.
The Real remains one of the most volatile emerging market currencies that we cover, with levels of implied probability that exceed just about all of its regional peers. BRL sold-off aggressively at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, falling to a record low of around 5.9 to the US dollar. The currency stabilized in the second half of last year and has largely held its own versus a broadly stronger dollar in most of 2021 so far.
It has, however, sold-off again in the past 3 months or so - down around 10% since the end of June. This makes the Real the worst performing currency in the EM spectrum during that time, despite the ongoing interest rate hike cycle from the Central Bank of Brazil - which has raised rates by 425 basis points since March.
Investors appear slightly torn between renewed optimism surrounding the pandemic and concerns surrounding the recent stagflation narrative, whereby many economic areas are seeing rising consumer prices, coupled with slower growth. Following the recent sharp increase in US inflation and robust labour market performance, investors have braced for an announcement that the Fed will soon begin tapering its large scale quantitative easing programme at some point this year. Also Germans will head to the polls on Sunday 26th September, and we’re set for a fairly significant political shift, because after 16 years in office, Chancellor Angela Merkel will be stepping down as Germany’s leader.
Listen to what our analysts have to say about the latest FOMC policy meeting and what they expect from the financial markets in Augusta and early September.
It is been a period that has been largely characterized by ‘risk off’ trading. If we look at the FX performance tracker for the past month, the three best performers in the G10 have been the traditional safe-havens. The swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar - in that order. Meanwhile, the higher risk currencies, including the Norwegian krone and Australian dollar, have largely underperformed.
This has a lot to do with the aggressive spread of the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus around much of the world. We’re seeing relatively sharp increases in infection in many nations, including some of the major ones. The real cause for concern is the sharp uptick in contagion witnessed in those nations that have so far lagged behind in vaccinations.
We’re going to start this episode by talking about Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report - the impact it had on the market and our general thoughts I guess on the strength of the US labour market.
Most currencies, particularly the major ones, spent much of it within rather narrow ranges amid a lack of significant newsflow. On Friday, however, we did see some volatility following the release of the monthly US nonfarm payrolls report.
We had said on this podcast two weeks ago that we thought the Fed would likely take on a less dovish stance in light of rising inflation and the strong recovery in the US economy. That was indeed the case, and in fact the bank surprised most of the market by signaling it is becoming increasingly concerned with the aggressive increase in US prices.
The main focus of this episode will be on the upcoming G3 central bank meetings. We’ll start by talking about Thursday’s ECB meeting. Then we'll move on to talk about next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, which promises to be an equally important one for markets.
In this episode we start by talking about the key theme in financial markets at the moment, and one of the main causes of concern for investors. There is a recent increase in global inflation, which causes a change in the price of goods and services over time. We are seeing signs of a sharp uptrend in prices, as restrictions are eased and economies are reopened again.
This time on FXTalk our market experts discuss the underwhelming US payroll report, and how the dollar has reacted. Prior to Friday's report investors were bracing for a massive increase of jobs. Growth economists were expecting a number close to 1 million jobs created, but the actual number was considerably lower.
In this episode, we begin by talking about the recent sell-off of the US dollar. In our second topic, we focus on a busy couple of days for the euro towards the end of this week.
The vaccination race is still ongoing - which currencies are doing well and which are lagging behind? Listen to our analysts discuss it here on episode five.
It was a busy week in terms of central bank meetings. Investors awaiting the bank's macroeconomic rejections and its view on the recent increase in European bond yields. Listen to this week's 20 min. update here.
On this episode of FX Talk our financial analysts discuss the recent sell-off in global bond markets and how they think the FX market is reacting, and the impact of various Covid vaccine programmes on currencies so far in 2021.
On this episode, we welcomed our first special guest: Isebl Ye, Ebury's Director of China Initiatives. Our analysts and Isabel Ye discuss the CNY's increasing importance on the FX market, China's reaction to the pandemic, and how they expect CNY to perform in 2021.
On this first episode of season 2 of FX Talk: Mass COVID-19 vaccinations and how currencies have reacted so far in 2021, and Joe Biden's proposed plan for a massive fiscal stimulus package in the US and its potential impact on the financial markets and the US economy.
In our final episode of FX Talk of 2020, our market analysts discuss what to expect from the FX market in 2021 and which currencies will under and overperform next year, and why.
In Episode 15 of FX Talk our market analysts discuss the latest COVID-19 vaccine headlines and implications on the FX markets, and business activity PMIs out of the US, the eurozone, and the UK.
In this episode, our financial market analysts discuss the US presidential election, the implications of a possible COVID-19 vaccine, and our spotlight currency of the week: the Turkish lira.
In this episode of Tuesday the 27th of October, our analysts discuss their final thoughts ahead of the US presidential election - what the latest polls are saying, and how they expect the FX market to react on election night. And lastly, they thoughts ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting.
In this week's episode (recorded on October 13th) our market analysts discuss their thoughts ahead of the US presidential election, why they think the US dollar has sold-off recently, and how the US dollar will perform in the immediate aftermath of the vote.
In this week's episode, recorded on Sept. 29th, our market analysts discuss the second wave of virus infections and its impact on the financial markets. They share their thoughts on the US presidential elections and its potential impact on the global financial market. And lastly this week's spotlight currency: Japanese yen (JPY).
This week our market analysts discuss what they think the next monetary policy steps are for three of the world's major central banks: ECB, FED, and BoE. The spotlight currency of the week is the pound sterling: GBP.
This week our market analysts discuss the historic monetary policy overhaul from the Federal Reserve and its implications for US interest rates. Furthermore, they discuss this week's dismal euro area and inflation data, and its ramifications for ECB policy. And lastly, this week's spotlight currency is the Norwegian krona (NOK).
This week on episode 8 of FX Talk, our market analysts Matthew Ryan and Roman Ziruk discuss if the recent dramatic USD sell-off has gone too far and what's driving emerging market performance.
In this episode of FX Talk our analysts discuss the latest GDP numbers out of the US and the euro area, their thoughts ahead of Thursday's Bank of England meeting, and the spotlight currency of the week: the Russian Ruble (RUB).
In episode 6 of FX Talk, our analysts discuss the recent sharp sell-off in the USD, the FOMC meeting of July 29th, and out spotlight currency of the week: Swedish Krona (SEK).
On episode 5 of FX Talk our market analysts discuss the European policy announcements and Thursday's ECB meeting, the recent uptrend in EUR/USD, and our spotlight currency of the week: pound sterling.
In this episode of FX Talk our analysts discuss last Thursday's US nonfarm payrolls report and its impact on the dollar, why they think risk assets are rallying so far this month despite the latest US coronavirus numbers, and our spotlight currency of the week: the Mexican peso.
In this episode of FX Talk (June 30th), our analysts discuss the increase in global economic data, the US labor market, and the upcoming non-farm payrolls report. The spotlight currency of the week is the Brazilian Real (BRL).
In this episode of June 18th, our market analyst discuss the latest impact of COVID-19 on the FX markets and share their thoughts on this afternoon's BoE meeting. The spotlight currency of this week is the Chinese yuan.
In this episode, our market analysts will discuss the recent ECB meeting, the rebound of emerging market currencies, and our spotlight currency of the week: the Australian dollar.