Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford

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Baillie Gifford first invested in SpaceX in 2018, nearly eight years before its record-setting stock market listing. Investment manager Luke Ward, who championed the holding, discusses what first drew him to the business, why Starship is critical to its future, and reveals where he’s now looking for another company with industry-upturning potential.

Background:

Luke Ward is an investment manager on Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team and co-manager of Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust.

In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion how SpaceX’s first successful landing and recovery of one of its rocket boosters led him to explore an investment in the company, and how he gained access to its senior management.

Ward also explores three growth drivers that could determine its future success:

regularly flying a new, larger spacecraft, Starship, into orbit
upgrading its Starlink broadband network with satellites that connect to smartphones directly
putting and operating datacentres in orbit

In addition, he discusses some of the risks in being a long-term shareholder in the Elon Musk-run endeavour.

Ward also reveals why he thinks the construction industry is ripe for disruption from 3D-printing robots.

Resources:

Baillie Gifford Private Companies Team

Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust

Elon Musk by Ashlee Vance

Private companies: our philosophy

Quantum, space, fusion: three firms engineering the future

SpaceX: the economics of the impossible

Starlink: broadband from above

Titan robotic construction system

Companies mentioned include:

· Alphabet (Google)

· Anthropic

· Astranis

· Rocket Lab

· SpaceX

· Tesla

Timecodes:

00:05 Introduction

02:00 A successor to the Space Shuttle

03:55 Reimagining a market

05:55 Reusable rockets

06:30 Mars as a ‘forcing function’

07:55 First encounter with Gwynne Shotwell

10:10 The ‘scale of the Dutch East India Company’

12:40 What we got wrong

14:25 The advantages of early access

17:50 Starship’s cost advantage

19:40 Next-generation Starlink satellites

22:30 AI and space-based datacentres

27:20 SpaceX’s scale of ambition

29:00 Governance risk

31:05 Flywheels and stepping stones

32:55 3D-printed homes

34:25 A “nerdy” book pick

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Path dependency: The idea that earlier choices shape and constrain what becomes possible later.

Rocket booster: The part of a rocket that provides extra thrust during launch, usually early in flight.

Orbital-class craft: A spacecraft or rocket powerful enough to reach orbit around Earth.

Market capitalisation: A public company’s total value on the stock market, calculated from its share price and number of shares.

Vertical integration: When a company owns and controls more of its supply chain itself, rather than relying on outside suppliers.

Point solution: A product or service built to solve one specific problem, rather than a broader system of related problems.

Balance sheet: A financial statement showing what a company owns, owes and is worth at a point in time.

Roadshow: A series of presentations in which a company and its advisers meet potential investors before a share sale or listing.

Cost curve: The trend in how the cost of producing or delivering something changes as technology improves or scale increases.

Geostationary orbit: An orbit where a satellite moves at the same rate as Earth rotates, so it appears to stay above the same point on the planet.

Transistors: Tiny electronic switches used in computer chips to control electrical signals.

S-curve: A pattern where progress starts slowly, accelerates rapidly and then slows again as a technology matures.

Ancillary services: Supporting services or costs around the main product or technology, rather than the core hardware itself.

Orders of magnitude: Very large multiples, usually powers of 10.

Radiation hardening: Designing or adapting electronics so they can keep working despite radiation in space.

Cap table: Short for capitalisation table, a record of who owns a company’s shares and on what terms.

Thermal mass: A material’s ability to absorb, store and release heat, helping to smooth temperature changes.

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Tokenisation represents an “operating system upgrade” for the investment industry, says Theo Golden, Baillie Gifford’s new head of digital assets. In this episode, they explain what it involves and how it should deliver a better experience, both by reducing the number of middlemen between you and your investments and making your holdings more “useful”.

Background:

In this conversation, Theo Golden tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about how tokenisation can reduce costs and complexity – and pave the way for providing clients with new services that better fit their needs.

Tokenisation means taking an asset – such as a fund – and turning it into a line of code. This lives on a blockchain: a shared digital record that no single party owns or controls. The investment itself doesn't change, but what does are the ways that ownership is recorded and transferred. Instead of a chain of intermediaries, each keeping their own set of books, everyone can work from one shared record. As Golden puts it, it's “the same but better” – the same investments, on faster, lower-cost, more flexible rails built for the internet age.

It also paves the way to new capabilities. Among those Golden discusses are making it much easier for clients to use the funds they invest in as collateral for loans, and the development of “agentic wealth management” – AI bots that autonomously plan and, potentially, update an individual client’s portfolio based on their risk appetite and changing circumstances.

Baillie Gifford’s first steps with tokenisation involve fixed income, but in time the ambition is to “build across our investment universe,” Golden says. “So be ready for Baillie Gifford on chain.”

Resources

Baillie Gifford digital assets hub

Dr Ian Hunt: Replicating Legacy is Squandering the Promise of Tokenisation: We Are Building a Faster Horse

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:40 “A world with less friction”

02:15 The lesson from losing it all

04:50 From Bloomberg to bonds

06:35 Defining tokenisation and the blockchain

08:20 Same assets, better system

09:35 One golden source of truth

12:35 Making assets more useful

16:10 Turning assets into “Lego bricks”

19:20 Stablecoins, regulation and new decision-makers

24:00 Managing crypto risks

26:25 The ‘same but better’ rule

28:00 Starting with fixed income

29:20 Meeting clients where they are

30:27 Book pick

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Trading volumes: The amount of buying and selling taking place in a market over a period of time.

Blockchain-based tokenisation: The use of blockchain technology to create digital tokens that represent ownership of assets.

Self-sovereign: Controlled directly by the owner, rather than depending entirely on a bank, platform or intermediary.

Custody: The safekeeping of assets. Self-custody means holding and controlling the asset directly yourself.

Counterparties: The other parties involved in a financial transaction or agreement.

Multi Asset: An investment approach that can invest across several asset classes, such as shares, bonds, currencies and infrastructure.

Catastrophe bonds: Bonds that transfer insurance-related risks, such as natural-disaster losses, from insurers to investors.

FX rates: Foreign exchange rates.

Smart contract: Computer code that automatically carries out agreed rules when certain conditions are met.

Token: A digital representation of an asset or ownership right on a blockchain.

Walled garden: A closed system where users can only operate within the rules and limits of one provider or platform.

Fixed income fund: A fund that invests mainly in bonds or other debt instruments that typically pay interest.

Growth equity fund: A fund that invests in companies expected to grow faster than the wider market.

Vehicle for transfer: The system or method used to move ownership or value from one party to another.

Rails: The underlying infrastructure that allows transactions or transfers to take place.

Reconciliation: The process of checking that different records match each other.

Shareholder registry: The official list of people or organisations that own shares or fund units.

Transfer agency register: A fund-administration record that tracks investor ownership and transactions.

Wallet: A digital tool used to hold and manage blockchain-based assets.

Finality: The point at which a transaction is considered complete and cannot easily be reversed.

Unitisation: The process of dividing a fund into units so investors can buy and sell a share of the fund.

Inert: Hard to move, transfer or use in other financial activities.

UK gilt: A UK government bond.

Margin call: A demand for more cash or collateral when the value of an investment or position has fallen.

Interoperability: The ability of different systems, assets or pieces of software to work together.

Composability: The ability to combine digital assets or software components, like building blocks, to create new services.

COBOL: Common Business-Oriented Language – an older computer programming language still used in some legacy financial systems.

AI agents: Software that can act semi-independently to carry out tasks on behalf of a user.

On-chain books and records: Official ownership and transaction records kept on a blockchain.

Stablecoin: A digital asset designed to track the value of a traditional currency, such as the US dollar or pound.

Fiat currency: Government-issued money, such as pounds, dollars or yen, that is not backed by a physical commodity such as gold.

USDC: A stablecoin issued by Circle that is designed to track the value of the US dollar.

FCA: The Financial Conduct Authority, the UK regulator for financial services firms and markets.

Burn a token: Permanently cancel or destroy a digital token so it can no longer be used.

Remit a token: Re-issue a token to a new wallet.

Neobank: A digital-first bank, usually operating mainly through apps or online services.

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The US public’s tastes and habits are fragmenting, leading to new consumer behaviours. The shift from a handful of TV networks to an endless supply of streamed shows and social media clips is just one of many causes. Investment manager Dave Bujnowski discusses the characteristics that determine which growth companies should thrive in the resulting ‘high entropy’ environment.

Dave Bujnowski is an investment manager in our US Equity Growth Team and co-manager of the Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund and our American Fund.

In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about his work with anthropologist Dr Grant McCracken, studying the causes and effects of the fragmentation of American culture. They believe that US culture is a system that has entered a ‘high entropy state’ – meaning that tastes and habits no longer change in an orderly manner. The result is “tremendous instability” and a sense of “continual pandemonium”.

This shift, they argue, has implications for growth companies and helps explain why some are struggling to maintain mass-market appeal. But the disorder also plays to others' advantage, and they have sought to identify which will thrive and why.

Portfolio companies discussed include:

· Cloudflare – the service that protects websites from attack and optimises their performance

· DraftKings – the sports gambling platform that lets Americans bet on sporting events

· Samsara – the Internet of Things specialist helping companies track and make sense of data

· SharkNinja – the home appliance company behind the CREAMi ice-cream maker

· Shopify – the ecommerce platform serving merchants

Resources:

Dr Grant McCracken

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive

The Long View collection

Thinking in Systems

When systems fragment: entropy, cultural change and the next great US companies

Companies mentioned include:

· Alphabet (Google)

· Amazon

· Cloudflare

· DraftKings

· Meta

· Netflix

· Samsara

· SharkNinja

· Shopify

· SpaceX

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

02:05 System-level thinking

03:20 How change happens

06:10 Entropy and fragmentation

08:15 A conversation with Cloudflare’s CEO

10:20 Ants and anthropology

13:25 Grant McCracken on North Sea culture

15:15 The causes of splintering culture

17:05 New consumer behaviours

19:15 Challenging times for lululemon

21:00 Shopify and agility

23:10 Agentic commerce

25:40 SharkNinja and new niches

28:30 DraftKings and cultural anchors

30:40 Samsara’s entropy antidote

32:10 Finance and space: systems to watch

33:50 Book choice

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Entropy: In this podcast, a metaphor for systems becoming more fragmented, varied and harder to predict.

Cash flows: The money moving into and out of a business.

Market cap: The total stock-market value of a company: share price multiplied by number of shares.

S&P 500: A major US stock-market index of large companies.

Second law of thermodynamics: A physics principle often simplified as the tendency of energy in a closed system to spread out over time.

Mainframe: A large, central computer used by organisations to process major computing tasks.

Big iron: Informal technology term for large, powerful central computers.

MMA: Mixed martial arts, a full-contact combat sport.

Delulu: Internet slang for optimistic or unrealistic self-belief. Short for ‘delusional’.

Traffic aggregation: Bringing together large numbers of users or customers in one place, often online.

Total addressable market (TAM): The total potential market size for a product or service if it reached all possible customers.

Prediction markets: Markets where people trade contracts based on the likelihood of future events.

Internet of Things: Everyday equipment connected to the internet so it can collect and share data.

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Bottlenecks often act as constraints on growth, but companies that create funnels through them can gain pricing power and capture long-term value. Investment manager Mike Taylor reveals some of the companies he thinks achieve this best and how he spots such pinch points before they fully form.

Mike Taylor is a Baillie Gifford partner, an investment manager in its Global Alpha Strategy and a co-manager of The Monks Investment Trust.

In this conversation, he tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about how bottlenecks can confer an advantage on companies that sit astride them. That includes those that serve a mismatch between supply and demand created by others, and those whose products and services create a new pinch point, which they control. In addition, he explains why mixing a cocktail of bottlenecks in his portfolios can deliver smoother growth for their shareholders.

Portfolio companies discussed include:

Medpace – the drug and biologic contract research organisation
Games Workshop – the maker of the Warhammer tabletop battle games
Tidewater – the provider of offshore vessels to the oil and gas sector
Freeport-McMoRan – the mining company that produces gold and copper, among other minerals
DISCO – the precision tools company, widely used in the semiconductor industry
Samsung Electronics – the electronics conglomerate
SK Hynix – the memory chip specialist

Resources:

Don’t Burn Your Boats: the case for selective AI investing

Global Alpha Investment Strategy

SPQR: A History of Ancient Rome

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking podcast archive

The Monks Investment Trust

Valuing scarcity in the age of AI

Companies mentioned include:

Amazon

DISCO

Games Workshop

Tidewater

Freeport-McMoRan

Medpace

NVIDIA

Samsung Electronics

Sandoz

SK Hynix

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

02:10 Investing inside and outside Baillie Gifford

03:55 Defining bottlenecks

04:45 How Medpace helps biotechs meet regulatory requirements

07:35 Founder-leader, August Troendle

09:30 Stress testing the bottleneck

12:00 Games Workshop creates its own pinch point

14:50 Shepherding Warhammer over the long term

17:45 Mixing bottlenecks to reduce volatility

20:05 Tidewater and the coming offshore vessel shortage

23:30 Freeport-McMoRan feeds the US’s copper needs

26:20 AI bottlenecks: silicon wafers and high-bandwidth memory

30:00 Enduring versus fleeting bottlenecks

31:25 Book choice

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Adenovirus: A common type of virus that can cause mild illnesses such as colds, sore throats or conjunctivitis, but can also be modified for medical uses such as delivering genes into cells.

Gene therapy: A treatment that works by adding, altering or replacing genes inside a patient’s cells to treat disease.

Clinical trials: Research studies in people that test whether a medicine, treatment or medical approach is safe and effective.

FDA: The US Food and Drug Administration, the regulator responsible for approving medicines, vaccines and medical devices in the United States.

Contract research organisation: An organisation that helps biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies run clinical trials.

Private partnership: A business owned by its partners rather than by public shareholders.

Supernormal profits: Profits above what would normally be expected in a competitive market.

Supply side: The part of an industry concerned with how much of a product or service companies can provide.

Demand side: The part of an industry concerned with how much customers want or need a product or service.

Rate limiter: The factor that determines the maximum speed at which something can grow, expand or be produced.

Novel therapies: New types of medical treatments, often based on recent scientific advances.

Intellectual property (IP): Legal rights over creations such as brands, stories, characters, designs, patents or software.

Free cash flow: The cash a company produces after paying the costs needed to run and maintain the business.

Energy transition: The shift from fossil-fuel-based energy systems toward lower-carbon sources such as renewables, batteries and electrification.

Compute: The processing power needed to train or run AI models or other computing tasks.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM): A type of advanced memory chip that can move very large amounts of data quickly to processors, making it especially useful for AI systems.

Steam turbine: A device that uses steam to spin a wheel or rotor, converting heat energy into mechanical motion.

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A series of “extraordinary” events has made the environment more challenging for growth stocks. But “this level of trepidation can’t go on forever”, says Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar in this latest episode, suggesting that patient investors will benefit when stability returns and the markets value exceptional companies at a premium again.

Stuart Dunbar is a director in Baillie Gifford’s Clients Department and is responsible for helping shape and communicate the firm’s investment philosophy.

In this conversation, he considers how a succession of disruptive events – the most recent being the current war in the Middle East – has rattled markets and led investors to focus on companies’ short-term profits rather than their long-term potential.

However, this period of flux will not last forever, he argues. And when we re-enter a period of stability, patience should be rewarded as markets recognise exceptional companies’ future earnings potential and price them accordingly.

In the meantime, Baillie Gifford’s investment teams remain focused on finding and supporting businesses that will prosper from change and supporting their management to take the long view. And as Dunbar reveals, as the sources of growth broaden out, we are backing some companies that come as a surprise.

Portfolio companies discussed include:

Astera Labs – the semiconductor chip designer, whose products tackle data bottlenecks in AI datacentres
IREN – the datacentre operator whose clients include Microsoft
Medpace – a contract research organisation that biotech and pharmaceutical companies hire to run their clinical trials
Nu Holdings – owner of the Latin American fintech Nubank
Spotify – the audio streaming platform that lets people listen to music, podcasts and audiobooks
WillScot – North America’s largest provider of temporary space rentals, leasing out modular offices, portable storage containers and classroom units

Resources:

Actual investors hub

Actual investing revisited

Baillie Gifford podcasts

Private growth investing

The Compound and Friends podcast

The Success Equation

Companies mentioned include:

AJ Bell

Amazon

Anthropic

Astera Labs

ByteDance

IREN

Medpace

Microsoft

Nu Holdings

NVIDIA

Spotify

WillScot

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

02:00 Active v passive

03:35 “Know what we own”

06:15 Building relationships with company leaders

07:55 Causes and effects of uncertainty

11:05 Beyond the Magnificent 7

12:45 A period of relative stability

17:50 Compressed valuations

19:25 Nubank and Medpace’s promise

23:10 Meetings with clients

25:40 Broader sources of growth

28:15 Private equity growth

31:25 Better-informed stock picking

33:25 Staying independent and standalone

35:45 “Wait until the market comes to its senses”

37:10 Book choice

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Latent heat: energy absorbed or released during a change of state, like ice melting, without a change in temperature.

Active investing: trying to beat the market by choosing investments based on research and judgement.

Passive funds: investment funds that track a market index rather than picking stocks actively.

Quantitative approaches: investment methods that use data, models and statistics to make decisions.

Market capitalisation weights: an index method that gives bigger companies a larger influence based on their total market value.

Alignment of incentives: making sure different parties are rewarded in ways that encourage the same goals.

Drawdowns: significant falls in the value of an investment from a previous peak.

R&D: research and development – spending on innovation and new products or technologies.

Backdate options: setting share-option dates retrospectively to make them more valuable, often controversially.

Shareholder registers: the official records of who owns a company’s shares.

Benchmark: a standard, often an index, used to compare investment performance.

Magnificent 7 / Mag 7: the seven giant US tech stocks that have dominated market performance in recent years.

GPU: graphics processing unit – a specialised chip often used for AI computing because it handles parallel tasks well.

Sub-market multiple: a valuation lower than the market average.

Strategic asset allocation: deciding how much to invest in broad asset classes like shares, bonds or private markets.

Benchmark-aware: closely focused on performance relative to a benchmark index.

Venture capital: investment in early-stage, high-growth private companies.

Private equity buyout funds: funds that buy controlling stakes in companies, often using debt.

Private equity growth: investing in more mature private companies that are expanding but not yet public.

Roadshow: presentations by company leaders to investors ahead of an IPO or fundraising.

Alternative asset classes: investments outside traditional shares and bonds, such as private equity or infrastructure.

Path dependency: the idea that outcomes are shaped by the sequence of earlier decisions and events.

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From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China’s top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west’s footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere.

Background:

Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust.

In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state’s efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today’s critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future.

Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on behalf of our clients.

Portfolio companies discussed include:

CATL – the battery maker whose products power electric vehicles worldwide and increasingly support the renewable energy sector
BeOne and Innovent Biologics – pharmaceutical firms developing the next generation of cancer drugs
AMEC and NAURA – semiconductor equipment makers enabling China to develop increased self-reliance in computer chips
Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent – China’s ‘big tech’ companies, whose artificial intelligence tools are becoming embedded into people’s daily lives
MiniMax – the AI startup rolling out video and agentic tools at a fraction of the cost of western counterparts
Horizon Robotics – the automated driving tech provider with its eye on an even bigger opportunity.

Resources:

Baillie Gifford podcasts

China: a tale of two stories

China investment strategy hub (institutional clients only)

House of Huawei

Private investor forum 2025: investing in great growth companies

Trip notes: on the road with Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust

Companies mentioned include:

Alibaba

AMEC

ASML

BeOne

ByteDance

CATL

Horizon Robotics

Innovent Biologics

Jiangsu Hengrui

Huawei

MiniMax

Samsung

NAURA

Tencent

TSMC

Xiaohongshu

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:55 Joining the China Equities Strategy

02:40 Intense competition

04:00 The government’s influence

06:10 CATL, the electrification champion

08:45 Investing with a 5-year time horizon

10:25 Shanghai office, local expertise

11:45 Regulations and geopolitics

14:30 China’s next Five-year Plan

16:15 Innovent Biologics’ new cancer drugs

18:10 Lower-cost clinical trials

19:45 Being selective in semiconductors

21:25 Investing in chip equipment makers

23:00 China’s ‘big tech and AI’

25:10 MiniMax making AI like ‘tap water’

27:45 The road to robotics

29:35 A market you can’t ignore

30:30 Book choice

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Third plenum: a major policy meeting of China’s ruling Communist Party, often used to set big economic/political direction.

Sovereign bond issuance: The government raising money by selling bonds (IOUs) to investors.

Opportunity set: the range of investable companies available to choose from.

Capex: capital expenditure – money spent on long-term assets like factories, equipment, or data centres.

Fiscal deficit target: how much more the government plans to spend than it collects in revenue (taxes plus other income), expressed as a share of the economy.

GDP: gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services a country produces in a year.

Market capitalisation: the total value of a company’s shares (share price × number of shares).

ESG: environmental, social and governance – how a company manages environmental impact, people issues, and corporate oversight.

Large-form batteries: big battery packs used in things like electric vehicles and grid storage.

Energy storage systems: large batteries that store electricity for later use (helping balance the grid).

Generic drugs: copies of medicines whose patents have expired; usually cheaper, same active ingredient.

Bi-specific (bispecific) drugs: drugs designed to bind to two targets at once (often to direct immune cells to cancer).

ADC drugs: antibody–drug conjugates – antibodies that deliver a toxic payload to cancer cells.

Out-licensing: selling rights to your drug/technology to another company (often for upfront + milestone payments).

EUV machines: extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment used to make the most advanced chips.

Foundry: a factory business that manufactures chips for other companies.

Etch and deposition: steps in chipmaking – etch removes material to form patterns, deposition adds thin layers.

Picks and shovels: a metaphor for companies that sell essential tools to an industry (rather than end products).

Digitalisation: moving processes and services from offline to software and data-driven systems.

Compute: the processing power (chips and servers) used to train/run AI.

Large language model (LLM): an AI trained on lots of text to generate and understand language.

Margins: how much profit a company makes per pound/dollar of revenue (after costs).

Cloud business: selling computing power/storage/software over the internet instead of on a local machine.

Algorithm layer: the method or software logic that makes the AI work (as distinct from the hardware).

Gross margin: revenue minus direct costs (before overheads), a rough measure of product profitability.

Assisted driving: features that help a driver (lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc) but don’t fully replace them.

Autonomous driving: a car driving itself with minimal or no human input.

Software attachment rate: the percentage of customers who add paid software features and/or subscriptions.

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With developments in generative AI progressing at such a furious pace, how can investors cut through the noise to identify the companies that will really matter? Baillie Gifford’s Kyle McEnery shares his approach to meeting the entrepreneurs building the future – including his encounters with AppLovin, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Roblox and Reddit.

Background:

Kyle McEnery is an investment manager in our Long Term Global Growth Team (LTGG) and previously led Baillie Gifford’s Artificial Intelligence Research Project.

In this conversation, he tells host Leo Kelion why AI’s ever-increasing capabilities make this one of the most exciting times to be a growth investor, and how leadership and culture act as signals in the noise to help identify companies with the greatest long-term growth potential.

In addition to discussing which of the firms enabling and using today’s language-based ‘frontier’ AI models are leading the pack, he explains how efforts to understand and simulate real-world physics could unlock further progress.

Portfolio companies discussed include:

Anthropic – developer of the Claude AI models, which excel at coding, among other tasks.

NVIDIA – the semiconductors firm whose accelerator chips are powering many of the advances in generative AI.

Roblox – the video games platform whose Cube 3D technology allows creators to build objects and environments out of text-based descriptions.

AppLovin – the ad-tech company whose AI-first strategy keeps the business lean and nimble.

Reddit – the online discussion forum, whose authentic human conversations are gaining in value as a counterpoint to AI-generated output.

Resources:

AI and the future of everything: a long-term perspective

Anthropic: why we are backing the AI frontrunner

Long Term Global Growth Strategy (institutional investors only)

LTGG philosophy and process (institutional investors only)

Private companies: from Anthropic to Zetwerk

The forge of intelligence: exploring the rise of physical AI

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub

Companies mentioned include:

Alphabet/Google

Amazon

Anthropic

AppLovin

Horizon Robotics

NVIDIA

Roblox

Tesla

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction – Dartmouth College’s artificial intelligence workshop

01:50 From quantum to AI via asset management

02:50 Creating and then culling a machine-learning initiative

08:05 ChatGPT’s wake-up call

10:35 Exceptional companies at the dawn of generative AI

12:10 Anthropic’s appeal to business customers

14:55 A winner-takes-all opportunity?

17:05 Dario Amodei and the scaling laws

19:10 NVIDIA’s foundational role in neural networks

22:55 Making video game items in Roblox with AI

25:00 AppLovin – a company built for the next era

26:55 Reddit’s valuable conversational communities

29:35 World models, spatial AI and the physical world

32:35 Staying open-minded and humble

33:35 Book choice

Glossary of terms (in order of mention):

Generative AI:

AI systems that create new content such as text, images or code rather than just analysing data.

Machine learning:

AI techniques where systems learn patterns from data rather than being explicitly programmed.

End-to-end, systematic (investment strategy):

Fully automated, with decisions made by predefined rules rather than human judgement.

Agentic AI:

AI systems that can plan and carry out tasks autonomously rather than just responding to prompts.

R&D:

Research and development.

GPT:

OpenAI’s models, which power its ChatGPT chatbot.

Natural language processing:

AI that enables computers to understand and generate human language.

Token:

A chunk of text, such as a word or part of a word, used by language models.

Foundation models:

Large AI models that can handle a wide variety of tasks.

Know your customer (KYC):

Financial checks used by banks to verify customers’ identities and risks.

Scaling laws:

The idea that AI performance improves predictably as models, data and computing power increase.

Compute:

The processing power required to train and run AI models.

Jevons’ paradox:

The counterintuitive idea that efficiency gains can increase, rather than reduce, overall usage.

CUDA:

NVIDIA’s software platform for programming its chips for high-performance computing.

Jensen:

Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s co-founder and chief executive.

Metaverse:

Shared virtual worlds where people interact, create and play online.

Large language models (LLMs):

AI systems trained on vast amounts of text to understand and generate language.

Multimodal models:

AI systems that can process multiple types of data, such as text, images and video.

World models:

AI systems that learn how the physical world works in order to predict and simulate it.

Embodied AI:

AI that learns through physical interaction with the real world, such as robots or vehicles.

Imitation learning:

Training AI by having it copy actions demonstrated by humans.

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From Pony.ai launching a robo-taxi service during a Shanghai storm to E Ink revolutionising the way supermarkets label their shelves – emerging market companies are in many cases leapfrogging western counterparts. In this episode, investment manager Alice Stretch reveals to host Leo Kelion some of the most disruptive companies innovating at speed in Asia and Latin America.

Background:

Alice Stretch is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Emerging Markets Equity Team. In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, she explores some of the growth companies in her portfolios turning constraints to their advantage and reducing friction in their customers’ lives.

Companies discussed include:

PolicyBazaar – the Indian insurance platform making it easier for people to protect themselves against life’s financial shocks.

Nubank – the Brazilian digital lender extending access to banking and credit.

Meituan – the food delivery and local services app extending its reach beyond China.

MercadoLibre – the Latin American ecommerce and fintech giant expanding into advertising.

Mobile World – the Vietnamese conglomerate that has expanded from mobile phones to competitively priced groceries.

Sea Ltd – the Singaporean gaming, shopping and fintech group eyeing the possibilities of agentic AI.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) – the world’s leading chip manufacturer.

E Ink – the Taiwanese e-paper pioneer building on its ebook success to provide supermarkets with updateable price tags and marketers with low-power digital billboards.

Pony.ai – the first driverless car company to offer a robo-taxi service in four of China’s most populous cities.

Resources:

Disruption Week

Emerging markets: how we do what we do

Emerging markets: from imitators to innovators

Emerging markets: the next engines of growth (podcast)

Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world

Imec

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub

Companies mentioned include:

Amazon

ByteDance

Chroma

E Ink

MercadoLibre

Mobile World

Meituan

Nubank

NVIDIA

PolicyBazaar

Pony.ai

Sea Ltd

Stellantis

TSMC

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction – Pony.ai takes to Shanghai’s roads

02:00 The imitators become the innovators

05:10 How PolicyBazaar benefits from not being locked into a legacy system

07:10 Nubank: reducing friction while expanding access to banking and credit

09:25 MercadoLibre’s multi-act expansion leads it to advertising technology

10:25 Mobile World’s move from selling handsets to groceries

11:50 Ways Sea Ltd developed capabilities while operating under constraints

13:45 Sea CEO Forrest Li’s ability to adapt and pivot

15:25 Taking the long-term view and a generalist approach

17:30 Studying the semiconductor industry with the help of Imec and TSMC

19:45 Investing in Chroma and E Ink in Taiwan

21:10 Walmart and other supermarkets adopt E Ink’s updateable price labels

22:45 The case for investing in Pony.ai as a long-term growth investor

24:10 Pony.ai’s cost advantage and international partnerships

25:55 Taking macroeconomic and geopolitical risk into account

27:15 Putting deep knowledge and research to our clients’ advantage

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AI lab Anthropic, digital bank Revolut, Chinese social network Xiaohongshu and supply chain specialist Zetwerk count among Baillie Gifford’s most recent private growth company investments. These bold pioneers are part of an expanding asset class, representing some of the world’s fastest growing and most disruptive businesses. Investment manager Robert Natzler tells host Leo Kelion how and why we backed them on behalf of our clients.

Background:

Robert Natzler is an investment manager on our Private Companies Team and deputy manager of The Schiehallion Fund.

In this conversation, recorded as part of our annual Disruption Week briefings, he brings you up to date on his team’s recent activity, bringing our tally of private company investments to more than 160, with a total value of over $10bn.

Companies discussed include:

Mottu – the motorcycle rental and service provider, serving gig workers and others in Latin America.

Revolut – the digital bank that has surpassed HSBC and other traditional lenders in terms of its customer count.

Anthropic – the frontier AI lab behind the chatbot and coding champion Claude.

Xiaohongshu – the Chinese social network, also known as RedNote, with a strong and growing following, especially among young women.

Zetwerk – the outsourcing specialist giving western brands and manufacturers the ability to broaden their supply chains beyond China.

Resources:

About Robert Natzler

Disruption Week

From code to culture: private companies shaping the world

Private Companies Team

Private growth: looking over the overlooked

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking hub

Why we are backing Anthropic

Companies mentioned include:

Anthropic

ByteDance

Mottu

Revolut

Xiaohongshu (RedNote)

Zetwerk

Timecodes:

00:00Introduction – Mottu CEO Rubens Zanelatto’s masterstroke

02:20Investing in ‘real’ companies with ambitious leaders

05:20 Helping growth-stage companies prepare to go public

08:35Exceptional companies in California and beyond

09:55Mottu: providing motorcycles and maintenance to an underserved segment

13:10Revolut: pursuing a different playbook to traditional banks

16:35Gaining conviction in AI lab Anthropic

23:40Dario Amodei’s appeal to other AI talent

24:30Xiaohongshu (RedNote)’s popularity among women in China’s wealthiest cities

26:25Zetwerk: expanding access to factories around the world

28:37How Baillie Gifford clients can access private companies

29:35Taking a global perspective on private companies

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From using AI to create better weather forecasts to helping people with disabilities get their dream job, Japan’s small companies are a disruptive force.

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“If you’re trying to find the very best growth businesses on the planet – a benchmark isn’t a sensible place to start.” Baillie Gifford’s chief executive Tim Campbell explains the advantages of our style of active investing, the importance of long-termism and how AI fits into our process.

Background:

In April, Tim Campbell became Baillie Gifford’s chief executive and one of its managing partners. Earlier in his career, he was an investment manager before switching to Client Services, where he led our Emerging Markets Clients Team.

In this podcast, he explores how our investment teams adopted a conviction-led approach that centres on each company's merits, regardless of its weighting in benchmark stock indices. He describes what we mean by long-termism and the importance of having the right incentives in place. And he explains why being “out of step” with some market trends helps us serve both society and our clients’ interests.

The second half of the show focuses on changes afoot, ranging from further private company investments – including a recent holding in AI lab Anthropic – to our own adoption of artificial intelligence technologies and an exploration of new ways to access our strategies.

Resources:

Baillie Gifford: Actual investors

Disruption Week

Drayton and Mackenzie

One Useful Thing: Ethan Mollick’s blog

Our history

Private company investments

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking

The Friction Project

Companies mentioned include:

Anthropic

Amazon

MercadoLibre

NVIDIA

Runway AI

Timecodes

00:00 Introduction

02:10 From music in the Middle East to investing in Edinburgh

03:15 Making the move to Client Services

05:00 Rewriting the investment playbook

06:30 Client hunger for benchmark agnosticism

07:40 Active versus passive investing

10:20 A mutual understanding with clients

11:55 Drawdowns and hold discipline

14:30 Defining long-termism

17:00 Private company investments

19:30 Investing in Anthropic and Runway AI

24:55 ‘The mission doesn’t change’

27:35 Book choice

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Inside ownership can give companies an advantage when it comes to long-term growth. That includes having a leader or family with a substantial stake in the business. And it also covers firms with farsighted backers, such as philanthropic foundations, which encourage management to take the long view. From airline Ryanair to hearing aid specialist Demant, investment manager Jenny Davis explores how having skin in the game drives firms to act with persistence.

Background:

Jenny Davis is a Baillie Gifford partner and an investment manager in our International Alpha Team. She specialises in companies based outside the US that offer ‘quality growth’ – combining the potential for outperformance with durability.

In this podcast, she explores how persistent, inside ownership works to the advantage of companies she has backed. Examples include firms with founders who have retained a significant stake, those with long-serving hired leaders rewarded with shares and other long-term incentives, companies with family owners where control has passed between generations, and businesses backed by a foundation or holding company with long-term objectives.

Companies covered include:

Discovery – the health insurer that has gone global, using data to nudge customers into improving their fitness.

Ryanair – the European airline that benefited from its chief executive’s obsession with controlling costs.

Technoprobe – the family-run ‘probe card’ specialist whose ability to spot faults in computer chips has kept pace with semiconductors’ increasing complexity.

Demant – the hearing aid specialist backed by a charitable foundation, which has invested in getting closer to its customers.

Scout24 – the German property portal whose independence Baillie Gifford helped preserve, allowing it to pursue a successful long-term growth strategy.

Resources:

Baillie Gifford

A new age of discovery: the case for international (restricted to certain clients)

Pioneers: 8 Principles of Business Longevity from Immigrant Entrepreneurs

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking

Companies mentioned include:

Demant

Discovery Ltd

Ferrari

Hermès

Investor AB

LVMH

Novo Nordisk

Richemont

Ryanair

Scout24

Shimano

Technoprobe

TSMC

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:55 The “scenic route” to asset management

03:00 Focusing on quality growth

04:35 Persistence’s enduring edge

05:45 Different types of inside ownership

06:30 Discovery’s healthy nudges

08:10 Adrian Gore’s visionary leadership

09:45 How Michael O’Leary turbocharged Ryanair

12:45 Ryanair’s scale advantage

14:00 Technoprobe’s family leadership

16:25 Engaging with Richemont’s Johan Rupert

18:30 Demant’s long-term philanthropic backer

20:55 Providing persistence’s benefits to Scout24

22:55 Selling out of Credit Suisse

24:30 Persistence and alignment

26:10 Book choice

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From microloans for farmers to free savings accounts for the ‘unbanked’ to customised insurance for gig workers to a cheaper, faster way for migrants to send money to loved ones: a growing range of services is helping many of the world’s least advantaged citizens increase their financial resilience. Previously, banks and other traditional lending institutions overlooked these customers. But as impact director Ed Whitten explains, by backing the companies now involved, you have an opportunity to improve people’s lives and achieve strong growth.

Background:

Ed Whitten is an impact director in Baillie Gifford’s Positive Change Strategy. Its dual objective is to provide our clients with attractive returns while contributing to a more inclusive, healthy world. Whitten’s role is to ensure that the companies it holds fulfil the second part of that pledge.

In this episode, he explores the topic of financial inclusion, explaining why the companies involved need to do more than simply provide access to loans, insurance and money transfers. Topics include how firms can use data and apps to deliver customised services that address specific people’s needs while protecting them from indebtedness. Whitten also explains how conversations with the companies Positive Change backs can nudge them towards better outcomes, such as providing customers with better financial education. And he explores the importance of helping people gain financial resilience against the effects of climate change and other events that could otherwise devastate their livelihoods.

Companies covered include:

Nubank – the digital-only bank used by most Brazilian adults that’s also growing in Mexico and Colombia.

Grab – the south-east Asian ride-hailing and delivery service that provides loans and insurance to drivers and merchants using its platform.

Remitly – the remittance service offering migrants a quick, low-cost and reliable way to transfer money to family and friends.

HDFC Bank – the Indian lender expanding its rural branch network to explain face-to-face how its services can put customers on a better financial path.

Resources:

Case study: Maliga

Nubank’s Beyond Access study

Positive Conversations 2024

The Song of the Cell

Trip Notes: Brazil (UK version / Ex-UK version)

Companies mentioned include:

Chime

Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Grab

HDFC Bank

MercadoLibre

Nubank

Remitly

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

02:05 From the British Army to impact investing

03:40 A sustainable, inclusive, healthy world

04:25 The different types of financial inclusion

05:40 Eyes open to the risks of indebtedness

06:45 Volatile repayment rates

07:35 Beyond accessibility: the personalisation of products

09:05 Partnering with CGAP and other development bodies

10:25 Nubank’s Caixinha money boxes

12:45 Nubank’s Mexican banking licence

14:15 Ensuring growth comes with impact

15:20 Grab’s loans and insurance

16:40 Grab’s data-driven approach to risk

19:45 The fast growth of remittances

21:25 Remitly’s cheaper money transfers

22:35 Gaining market share from Western Union

23:40 HDFC Bank’s expanding rural branch network

24:55 Financial inclusion in advanced economies

26:55 The ‘lucrative customers of the future’

28:15 Book choice

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Emerging markets are reshaping the global economy, and a convergence of powerful, long-term trends is accelerating this shift. These include surging demand for commodities, exploding middle-class spending power and booming inter-regional trade.

Investment specialist Andrew Keiller reveals some of the standout growth companies positioned to capitalise on this transformation and why now might be the perfect time to take advantage.

Background:

Andrew Keiller is a partner in Baillie Gifford and an investment specialist in our Emerging Markets Clients Team.

In this episode, he discusses how some of the fastest-growing developing economies are driving change in the world and the forces that could further hasten that trend.

The discussion builds on his recent paper, Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world, which identifies long-term structural shifts tilting the odds in favour of standout companies in Asia, Latin America and eastern Europe. In the podcast, he expands on this by identifying some of the companies that could be big winners, including:

the lithium miner SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile), which is set to benefit from a mismatch in supply and demand for the critical ingredient to electric car batteries and other energy storage systems
the South Korean high bandwidth memory chipmaker, SK Hynix, whose products are critical to training artificial intelligence systems at speed
the ‘super-app’ operator Kaspi.kz, which provides everything from bill payments, banking and travel bookings to shopping, maps and messaging
the Singaporean ecommerce, fintech and gaming conglomerate Sea, whose chief executive has ambitions to extend into further sectors
China’s biggest coffee chain, Luckin Coffee, which is giving the country’s 1.4 billion citizens a passion for the beverage with its ever-changing menu of inventive recipes

In addition, Keiller discusses the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and why many Chinese companies still offer an exciting investment opportunity.

Resources:

Emerging markets in 2050: growth in a changing world

Emerging markets: our philosophy

Emerging markets: rethinking the opportunity

Finding high-calibre growth companies in emerging markets (podcast)

Luckin Coffee: looking forward

Kaspi's super-app

South-east Asia’s rising export stars (podcast)

SQM: powering the future

The Time-Travelling Economist by Charlie Robertson

Companies mentioned include:

Kaspi.kz

Luckin Coffee

Sea

SK Hynix

SQM

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:35 Baillie Gifford beginnings and a trip to Hong Kong

03:15 Transformational trends playing out to 2050 and beyond

05:05 US exceptionalism and multiple spheres of influence

07:25 Rising trade between emerging market nations

08:35 Redesigning Chinese e-scooters for Vietnam and the Philippines

10:15 The possibility of reduced reliance on the US dollar

11:40 Increasing demand for raw materials and semiconductors

12:35 Digital-first companies and underserved communities

14:45 Four types of firms capitalising on long-term growth factors

16:25 SQM’s lithium mines in Chile’s Atacama Desert

17:55 Lithium’s long-term commodity cycle opportunity

18:45 SK Hynix’s high bandwith memory and its role in AI

20:40 Kaspi.kz’s Kazakh super-app

21:40 Kaspi’s expansion plans in Uzbekistan and beyond

23:00 Sea’s founder Forrest Li and importance of culture

24:30 Luckin Coffee’s huge domestic opportunity

25:25 Luckin’s taste for invention

26:40 Investing in China amid a trade clash

28:50 The risk of underexposure

29:40 Book choice

30:55 Investing in Africa

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Which UK growth firms have the greatest long-term potential? Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to “turbocharge” his government’s growth strategy after the US’s introduction of new tariffs. It promises to prioritise a handful of growth-driving sectors, including advanced manufacturing, the creative industries and ‘digital and technologies’. Our head of UK equity, Iain McCombie, has already invested in leading companies in each of these fields. In this episode, he discusses their ambitious growth plans, the importance of adaptability and why he remains confident of delivering strong long-term returns despite the trade restrictions.

Background:Iain McCombie is a partner in Baillie Gifford, our head of UK equity and joint investment manager of the Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust. He also jointly manages our flagship Managed Fund.

In this episode, he discusses a selection of his portfolio companies that align with the growth-driving sectors the UK government promises to prioritise in its Invest 2035 strategy. These holdings include:

the engineering company Renishaw, which specialises in measuring and manufacturing systems providing high accuracy and precision to customers including the semiconductor industry
the wargame miniatures maker Games Workshop, which is embarking on a TV and movie deal with Amazon
the self-driving car software developer Wayve, which signed a deal with Nissan to use its technology shortly after we recorded this episode
the financial services company Experian, whose vast collection of consumer debt data could become more valuable as artificial intelligence opens the door to new uses

In addition, McCombie discusses how the government’s ambitious housebuilding targets could benefit Volution Group, whose ventilation products defend against dampness and mould, and the reason why his passion for history has taught him to be an optimist.

Resources:Baillie Gifford UK Growth Trust

Investing in the UK’s best growth companies (webinar)

Creo Medical: at the spearhead of surgery

UK Growth Trust: a 2024 perspective

Calder Walton: Spies – the epic intelligence war between East and West

Companies mentioned include:AJ Bell

Auto Trader

Experian

Games Workshop

Kainos

Renishaw

Volution Group

Wayve

Wise

Timecodes:00:00 Introduction

01:35 Three decades at Baillie Gifford

02:20 UK equities’ appeal

02:55 Jointly managing the UK Growth Trust with Milena Mileva

03:35 The relationship with the Trust’s independent board

04:40 The UK government’s growth plans

05:40 Responding to US tariffs

06:50 Taking a long-term perspective

07:55 Advanced manufacturing: Renishaw

09:45 Industrial 3D printers

10:50 Creative industries: Games Workshop

12:45 Licensing Warhammer to Amazon

14:15 Digital and technologies: Wayve’s self-driving vehicle software

16:45 Kainos and AI

19:20 Auto Trader car-selling digital business

21:35 Financial services: Wise and AJ Bell

23:35 Experian’s consumer debt data

25:20 Volution Group: ventilation for new homes

27:25 The advantage of active investing

28:35 Book choice and lessons from history

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Are European stocks coming back into favour? After years of underperformance, many of the continent’s companies appear undervalued when compared to their historical prices and US counterparts. Investment manager Stephen Paice suggests that a group of growth-focused stocks could be among the biggest winners if sentiment shifts, and he identifies a handful of places they are thriving.

Background

Stephen Paice is a partner in Baillie Gifford, our Head of European Equities, an investment manager on the Baillie Gifford Growth Trust and European Fund, and a member of our International All Cap Portfolio Construction Group.

In this episode of Short Briefings…, he explores why European stocks have been trading at levels that make them appear historically cheap, what might cause opinion to turn, and how that relates to his pursuit of long-term exceptional growth.

Topics discussed include why some companies are more resilient than others to trade tariffs and other price pressures, changing attitudes to regulation, and the importance of culture.

Stephen also spotlights four categories of growth companies he believes offer huge promise:

the biological revolution: firms pioneering new treatments thanks to technological advances and deeper scientific understanding, with a focus on Novo Nordisk, Lonza and Camurus
dominant digital platforms: businesses carving out leading positions in niche markets, with special mention of Spotify and Adyen
semiconductors: companies fulfilling critical roles in the computer chip supply chain, including ASML and ASM International
luxury goods: companies deriving powerful advantages by bringing historic and prestigious brands under the same roof, including LVMH and Richemont

Resources

Future stocks: our best ideas in Europe

Europe’s hidden tech titans

Benjamin Labatut: The Maniac

Gary Klein: Seeing What Others Don’t

Paul Kalanithi: When Breath Becomes Air

Richard Thomson: Apocalypse Roulette

Companies mentioned include

Adyen

ASM International

ASML

Camurus

Lonza

LVMH

Novo Nordisk

Richemont

Schibsted Marketplaces

Spotify

Timecodes

00:00 Introduction

01:45 From games of chance to European equities

03:30 The valuation opportunity

04:35 Addressing uncertainty and political instability

06:35 President Trump’s trade tariffs

08:30 Regulation and innovation

10:45 Our long-term growth investment philosophy

13:00 The case for Novo Nordisk

14:35 Tackling Wegovy’s muscle mass loss

15:25 Lonza’s growing market for biologics

16:50 Camurus’s FluidCrystal technology

18:05 Dominant digital platforms with network effects

19:40 Spotify chief executive Daniel Ek’s focus on customers

21:55 The importance of Adyen’s culture and leadership

24:40 ASML and ASM International’s semiconductor tools

27:25 Luxury conglomerates LVMH and Richemont

30:00 The advantage of ‘family involved’ companies

31:10 Being patient and putting up with volatility

31:55 Book picks

32:55 Spotting inconsistencies

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Three technologies – quantum computing, reusable space rockets and nuclear fusion – could change the trajectory of human progress. Investment manager Luke Ward explains how a trio of private companies are bringing them closer to fruition.

Background:

Luke Ward is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team and recently became co-manager of the Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust.

In this episode of Short Briefings…, he discusses three companies developing groundbreaking technologies and building innovative businesses as they do so:

PsiQuantum, which aims to create the world’s first useful quantum computers
SpaceX, which is well on its way to developing the first fully reusable space rocket, with a view to ultimately transporting people to Mars
SHINE Technologies, which is commercialising applications of nuclear fusion on the path to delivering a clean and safe energy source for the future

Among the topics Ward covers are how photon-based quantum computers could drive progress in agriculture and batteries, among other industries. He also discusses how the Starlink satellite broadband provides a stepping stone to SpaceX’s larger ambitions. And he explains how SHINE’s work on detecting flaws in mission-critical aerospace components and making a new cancer treatment possible bring it closer to harnessing the reaction that powers the sun.

Resources:

PsiQuantum: making the leap to quantum computing

PsiQuantum: stock story

SHINE Technologies: an interview with chief executive Greg Piefer

SpaceX and other private company trailblazers

Starlink: broadband from above

Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust

Your vote, EWIT’s future

EWIT: Saba vote

Companies mentioned include:

PsiQuantum

SHINE Technologies

SpaceX

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

01:50 From mechanical engineering to investment

02:55 Technological innovation informing business innovation

03:45 Quantum computing versus the ‘classical’ approach

04:55 Using quantum computers to disrupt chemical fertilisers

06:10 PsiQuantum’s semiconductor supply chain advantage

07:20 A photonic approach to computing

08:05 Signs that PsiQuantum could succeed

09:45 PsiQuantum’s potential business model

10:30 Partnering with Mitsubishi Chemical and Mercedes-Benz

11:35 SpaceX: satellite launches and advanced rockets

12:35 Starlink’s high-speed internet from orbit

13:40 Connecting smartphones directly to Starlink

15:05 The investment case for Mars

16:55 Leading Baillie Gifford’s SpaceX investment in 2018

19:35 Considering other space industry investments

10:21 Nuclear fusion v fission

22:25 SHINE Technologies’ stepping stone approach

23:20 From advanced imaging to radiopharmaceuticals

24:15 Clinical trials for prostate cancer treatment Lutetium-177

24:40 Recycling nuclear waste

25:50 Saba vote: giving the public access to private companies

27:35 Investing in geothermal energy

28:30 Seeking inspiration in Silicon Valley

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One way to find great investment opportunities is to ask yourself what must change over the years ahead. In this episode, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar explores the increased use of robotics to fill gaps in the workforce and medical advances that help keep healthcare affordable, among other transformational themes.

Background:

Stuart Dunbar is a client relationship director and coordinates Baillie Gifford’s global marketing and product development activity, which includes responsibility for the firm’s Actual investors campaign.

For this Short Briefings… episode, he challenged himself to identify five transformational growth drivers that are both inevitable and investable. His picks cover:

the rise of robotic systems that can make sense of their immediate environment and act autonomously
the intelligent design of drugs and other efforts to deliver less costly, more effective healthcare
the energy transition to renewables and electrification of transport
greater dependence on the infrastructure underpinning digital payment systems
the dawn of automated transport, including driverless trucks and delivery drones

Dunbar explains the factors making these forces of change necessary, including the ageing populations of many developed countries, the resulting labour shortages and rising medical budgets.

He also names some of the companies we have backed that could benefit, either by pioneering new or better ways of doing things or by playing critical roles in the involved supply chains. These range from John Deere & Co, whose self-driving tractors and precision-applied pesticide technologies help farmers increase yields and cut costs, to Nexans and Prysmian, whose extra-high-voltage cables connect offshore wind turbines to onshore energy grids.

Resources:

Actual investing: why thinking differently matters

Christiana Figueres: stubborn optimism

Eureka Alert: Cheryl Mehrkar’s robotic surgery

Michael Lewis: Going Infinite

Stuart Dunbar on growth investing (video)

Zeke Faux: Number Go Up

Past Short Briefings… episodes

Companies mentioned include:

Adyen

Amazon

Aurora Innovation

CATL

Coupang

Deere & Company

Enphase

Intuitive Surgical

Keyence

Moderna

Netflix

Nexans

Novo Nordisk

Nubank

Prysmian

Redwood Materials

Remitly

Renishaw

Wise

Zipline

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

1:30 Starting out in Hong Kong

2:20 Joining Baillie Gifford

3:20 The importance of optimism

4:30 Five inevitable, investable themes

5:45 Robotics and demographics

6:40 Investing in the rise of autonomous systems

8:30 Renishaw’s sensors

10:05 Intuitive Surgical and Deere & Co’s seeing robots

12:15 The intelligent design of drugs and Recursion Pharmaceuticals

15:40 Lower-cost healthcare

16:45 Selectively picking biotech winners

17:55 The energy transition and President Trump

19:40: Stubborn optimism

21:10 Undersea cables and solar installation

23:11 A new generation of payment providers

26:00 Delivery drones and self-driving vehicles

27:40 Focus on possibilities and what’s changing

28:35 Book picks – exploring cryptocurrencies

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The US’s transformational upgrade of its drainage, power and road networks is a long-term investment opportunity hiding in plain sight. In this podcast, Michael Taylor reveals some of the outstanding companies involved and makes the case that the markets have yet to fully appreciate the advantages working in their favour.

Background:

Michael Taylor is an investment manager in Baillie Gifford’s US Alpha strategy. In this Disruption Week briefing, he explains why years of neglect coupled with the destructive consequences of wild weather and our insatiable appetite for data-processing power have led the US to embark on a massive renewal of its physical infrastructure.

Taylor suggests that many of the companies creating long-term value benefit from supply advantages, which help them defend their commoditised products’ prices. These range from ownership of gravel quarries, which are difficult to get planning permission for, to the use of a gigantic, portable plastic drain-making machine.

In addition, Taylor discusses what a second Trump presidency might mean for the sector and why finding standout companies involves travelling off the beaten track.

Resources:

Disruption Week

Building back: the great US infrastructure opportunity

Spotting the winners from the great US infrastructure renaissance

Companies mentioned include:

Advanced Drainage Systems

Eaton

Comfort Systems USA

Martin Marietta

NVIDIA

Stella-Jones

Timecodes:

00:00 Introduction

1:35 Exceptional businesses confronting an exceptional problem

3:20 The US v global infrastructure opportunity

4:35 Donald Trump’s second presidency

6:40 The benefits of patience

7:35 Wild weather

8:45 Investing in Advanced Drainage Systems

11:05 Labour shortages

12:15 Stella-Jones’s wooden telegraph poles

14:05 Tree-spotter specialists

16:15 Martin Marietta’s supply-side advantage

18:55 Recycled aggregates’ limitations

20:15 Finding US infrastructure investments

21:45 Comfort Systems USA and keeping datacentres cool

24:20 “Massive in terms of magnitude of spend and duration”

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Many of the world’s most exciting, high-growth and disruptive companies are private. Moreover, the entrepreneurs running them are typically keeping them private for longer before trading their shares on public stock exchanges – and in some cases have no plans to do so.

Baillie Gifford’s Private Companies Team seeks out exciting businesses and founders in this space to give our clients access to an increasingly important source of long-term growth. Taking a highly selective approach, it has invested more than $9bn across over 140 firms over the past 12 years. In this podcast, Alexander Nicolier explains how it does so and discusses some of our notable holdings.

Background:

Alexander Nicolier is an investment manager in our Private Companies Team. In this Disruption Week briefing, he reveals the scale of the opportunity and the increasing impact that the sector’s restless founders and their exceptional companies are delivering.

From SpaceX to Bending Spoons, Epic Games to ByteDance, one of the distinguishing features of these pioneering firms is that they’ve been able to choose their shareholders. Nicolier reveals why Baillie Gifford’s patient approach and reputation have helped make us a favoured partner.

He also reveals how deep research helps him and his colleagues embrace the uncertainty that can be involved with backing companies at an earlier stage of growth than many public market stocks. And he introduces some of his team’s most recent investments, including the immersive experience specialist Cosm and the next-generation computing company Tenstorrent.

Resources:

Alexander Nicolier profile

Armand Spitz: seller of stars

Baillie Gifford Private Companies hub

Disruption Week

Private companies: investing in trailblazers

The hidden cost of software

Companies mentioned include:

Bending Spoons

ByteDance

Cosm

Disney

Epic Games

Loft

MercadoLibre

Short Briefings on Long Term Thinking - Baillie Gifford: Recent Episodes

Baillie Gifford