BM Talks: Recent Episodes
BlondeMoney
We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Mark Mcvitie, Director of the Labour Growth Group. With around 100 Labour MPs as members, the group is 'committed to tearing down the barriers to growth'. Mark worked in communications in the financial services sector before moving into political campaigning.
We asked:
- What is the Labour Growth Group's core mission?
- How does it work with other Labour factions?
- Is it a "pro-Starmer" group?
- In the lead up to the Budget, what tax reforms would you recommend to unlock growth?
- Does the OBR need reform to help bring growth?
- Can any government create growth given the fiscal constraints?
- How does the Labour Party respond to an electorate looking for political disruption?
We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dame Harriett Baldwin, MP for West Worcestershire who served as Chair of the Treasury Select Committee and is now Shadow Business and Trade Minister. Prior to joining parliament she was Head of Currency Management at JP Morgan Investment Management.
We asked:
- How do you assess the UK's fiscal risks right now?
- Do the current fiscal rules command credibility in the markets?
- Do you think UK gilts retain safe haven status?
- Should the Treasury Select Committee have a beefed up role in fiscal oversight?
- Did the Bank of England get it wrong on QE and QT?
We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Alex Patelis, who served as Chief Economic Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis between 2019-2024. Alex also worked in investment banks including as Managing Director of Global Research at Merrill Lynch and studied under Ben Bernanke for his PhD from Princeton.
We asked:
- Ten years ago, Greece voted No in a referendum to a bailout, only for the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to perform the exact opposite three weeks later. What happened?
- Greece is now running a primary budget surplus with investment grade debt. How was this achieved?
- What lessons can the rest of the world take from this?
- What does the German "Zeitenwende" mean for the EU?
- Is this the end for the dominance of the US Dollar?
- What advice do you have for Scott Bessent, who also moved from the world of finance into politics?
- What do you think of populism?
We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights. She is an expert in sanctions and trade policy with a focus on oil markets in the Middle East. Her substack has the ever-more relevant name of "Weaponized Economy".
We asked:
- What happens to the oil price given the Iran/Israel conflict?
- What will be the response of the GCC countries and China?
- How will Trump's trade policies affect GDP?
- Can sanctions ever really work?
- Would China dump US Treasuries?
- Will Russia come back into the fold?
- Is Trump the strongest strongman?
We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Dr Nigel Bowles, who taught American politics and history at Oxford and Edinburgh universities, along with authoring many books such as "Government and Politics of the United States".
We asked:
- Does the US Constitution prevent an authoritarian President?
- Can the US President remove the Federal Reserve Chair?
- Are tariffs the exclusive power of the executive branch?
- Is Trump a genuine threat to the rule of law?
- Are Americans more polarised than at any time in history?
We talk to Meyrick Chapman, Principal and Founder of Hedge Analytics Ltd, about:
- How should we look at the US trade balance?
- What was the "glitch" in The Matrix on Liberation Day?
- What does the Moody's downgrade mean for US debt?
- Where could systemic risk emerge?
- Why does the market respond dramatically to known unknowns?
We asked Ben Ashby, CIO of Henderson Rowe:
- What next for the S&P500?
- What is the Eurodollars market and why does it matter?
- Is Trump trying to accelerate a long term rebalancing of the global economy?
- Where could systemic risk emerge?
- What countries are vulnerable in a new era for foreign policy?
Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at Manchester University and co-author of Brexitland, talks to us about:
- What will happen in the 3 by-elections
- What this means for the UK General Election
- The new division between voters
- Why Nigel Farage isn't done yet
- The outlook for UK politics
This is an episode from our archives.
We spoke to Kweku Adoboli, the former UBS trader who went to prison for rogue trading that was uncovered in 2011. In the summer of 2018, having served his time, he spoke to us about the mechanics of marketing making and prop trading in ETFs and other Delta One products. He explained how he used proxies for volatility to hedge positions and how this can lead to hidden leverage within the financial system. He has a unique perspective of trading through the financial crisis that he is now free to discuss as someone outside of the system.
We asked Hugh:
- What assets does he want to own this year ?
- What does he think about inflation?
- What was his favourite trading day?
- Which policymaker is getting it right?
He shares how he was once under attack by Robert Mugabe as well as waxing biblical from his Caribbean island.
We asked:
- Will China invade Taiwan?
- Can China meet its growth target?
- What does China think of Liz Truss?
- What is Xi Jinping's ideology?
- What are China's demographic challenges?
- And finally... what is the best programme on Chinese TV?
We asked:
- Will there be a UK recession this year?
- Will Working From Home solve the Productivity Puzzle?
- Is Rishi Sunak doing a good job?
- Who is his favourite UK Chancellor?
- How has business journalism changed?
- And of course... what's his favourite joke?
We asked:
- Is Gold still an inflation hedge?
- When is Gold a safe haven?
- How does Gold fit into a portfolio?
- How does Gold compare to Crypto?
- How liquid is the Gold market
- Have central bank holdings of Gold changed?
Former British Ambassador to the United States, Sir Christopher Meyer talks to us about the upcoming US elections, the role of China, the UK under Boris Johnson and the future of the European Union. He explains the greatest challenges he faced in his term as Ambassador, including the 9/11 terror attacks, as well as the greatest leaders he ever met.
We asked:
- Who will win the US mid-term elections?
- What is Joe Biden really like and will he lose to Trump in 2024?
- What relationship should the West have with China?
- Will we see a united Ireland?
- Does he actually like using Twitter?
- What was the greatest diplomatic challenge he faced?
- Which world leader impressed him the most?
We asked:
- What happens to inflation?
- Can central banks hold their nerve?
- What does the post-pandemic economy look like?
- Do investors still need bonds in their portfolio?
- Where are the opportunities in Emerging Markets?
- What is the future of the EU?
We asked:
- What does the future of asset management look like?
- Where do ETFs fit in?
- Can blockchain revolutionise the industry?
- How has the virtual world worked during the pandemic?
- In the search for yield, where do the opportunities lie?
- What advice can you give someone starting out in the industry?
- What are the prospects for the Union of the United Kingdom?
We asked:
- What can we learn from the response to the Spanish Flu?
- Are we going back to the inflation of the 1970s?
- How does the Technological Revolution compare to the Industrial Revolution?
- Are central banks and governments pursuing MMT?
- What happened to the Bond Vigilantes?
Philip Coggan writes the Bartleby column in the Economist. He started a life in journalism when they used typewriters. He has experienced seismic change in journalism, and his latest book, “More: The 10,000-Year Rise of the World Economy” provides a wide historical perspective with which to reflect on the current economic challenges
Helen asked about China, NZ approach to them, how aggressive will China be and can it drive a wedge between NZ and Australia?
NZ has always had a good relationship with China, the Five Eyes has morphed into making political statements not intelligence ones. NZ is in ANZUS, ok it’ somewhat on ice as far as NZ goes but when John was PM he sent their SAS to Afghanistan. We, along with Britain and many others observe a one China policy, i.e. acknowledging g their territorial rights, that doesn’t mean we forget about human rights. China is emerging as a superpower, some feel threatened by that but there’s no historical precedent that they’ll apply military action. They’re building greater military power for sure, but many countries are. The recent breakdown in relations is very regrettable and it would be awful if NZ had to make a decision between her traditional allies and China as NZ needs both. Given the migration cultural ties, etc with Britain, you can see how that will pan out.
Moving onto the pandemic, governments took different approaches, will border closures at some point become a negative and would you have done it differently?
It’s actually fairly easy for us, Australia, etc to close borders quarantine, etc, much easier than for the UK where it’s impossible. It’s easier to stop something in politics than start stuff. We would have done something very similar but decisions like this are not just about closing borders, it’s combined with economic measures as well. As regards the pandemic, the UK may come out well. I like Boris even though he does look like he’s slept on the porch, but with mutations, not everyone taking the vaccine it’s hard to know what herd immunity is, it’ll be a rolling maul to use a rugby analogy.
Will the dollar be replace as a reserve currency?
There’s loads of reasons to have confidence in the dollar. Blockchain, what about that? Is crypto useful or a Casino? Getting rid of cash is logical. Alipay and the likes will be the winners.
Brexit?
I wouldn’t have voted for it but I can see why people did. I’ve Come round to the opinion that the problem is the euro, a currency is a safety valve, which Greece didn’t have and they weren’t keen moving to Frankfurt to work, not least the weather’s not great!
There’s lots, lots more in here, a summary does it little justice as he’s s great communicator.
We asked:
- How has QE evolved since the financial crisis?
- What are we to make of increased borrowing by governments?
- What is the major source of systemic risk today?
- What is causing wobbles in the bond market?
- How far can we make a comparison between 2020 and 2008?
- What will happen to the US Dollar?
- What is the outlook for stocks, bonds and alternative assets?
We asked:
- What is the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol?
- What happened over Article 16 and why?
- What are the immediate implications for NI businesses?
- How much friction is there between EU vs UK, UK vs ROI etc?
- Will we see a United Ireland and Independent Scotland in 10 years?
- Will we return to violence?
Our speakers are from either side of the debate.
We asked:
- What is going to happen to inflation, interest rates and volatility?
- What will the Fed do?
- What measure of inflation is the best one to follow?
- What is the risk from investing in mortgage securities?
- What part does convexity play in interest rate markets?
- How did you trade last March?
- Where is there now value in the markets?
We asked:
- What does the post pandemic world look like?
- What sectors will struggle and which will not
- Was the massive intervention of March 2020 a massive bail out?
- What advice would you give the Fed?
- What will happen to Europe with leadership changes?
- Britain after Brexit?
- What will Biden achieve?
We asked:
- Are stockmarkets bubbly?
- What next in UK politics after Brexit?
- What sectors will outperform and which will struggle?
- How has technology changed the markets?
- How will The City adapt to the new normal?
We asked:
- What are the challenges facing the fund management industry?
- Is ESG a bubble or is it here to stay?
- What does Brexit mean for the City?
- Has the government done enough to save small businesses?
- How do music rights work as an alternative asset?
- What advice would she give investors?
For a full breakdown of the half hour podcast, see below:
01:00 - What challenges face the fund management industry?
02:57 - Passive management has seen the rise of mega firms, can boutiques survive?
03:49 - Is ESG a bubble or here to stay?
05:40 - What challenges does Brexit pose to fund management?
08:00 - Looking back at when we entered the EU in the 1970s, how politically active were you then?
09:33 - Will you always be active in politics?
10:10 - Small businesses are in dire straits, are they able to get the financing they need?
11:31 - Would it have been better for the government to take equity stakes?
14:31 - Are banks getting money out there?
16.44 - How do these specialist areas, like lending litigation and funding for music rights, work?
19:32 - Aren't young people rediscovering vinyl?
19.46 - If we can describe it as an alternative asset, can the man on the street get involved in music rights?
21.23 - Where do you see growth in the next few years, is there anything else on your horizon
26.11 - GameStop, do you have any thoughts on that?
28:28 - What advice would you give to millennials starting out on their investment journey
We asked CJ Mahoney, the former Deputy United States Trade Representative under Robert Lighthizer in the Trump Administration:
- Will China tariffs be renegotiated?
- Will the UK or EU get a trade deal with US?
- What will Biden’s flagship policy be, given a 50-50 Senate?
- What was the Trump administration’s greatest achievement?
- What happens to the Republican Party post-Trump?
- What is the biggest geopolitical risk out there?
In response, he discusses the outlook for relations with China, the chances of a UK/US trade deal, the potential future leaders of the Republican Party, the key Senators to watch, and what the Biden Administration is likely to achieve.
In this episode of BM Talks we are joined by Sir Paul Tucker who reveals:
- Why central banks are struggling to communicate their actions
- What QE is doing needs to be examined
- How QE works must be better explained
- Debt needs to be termed out
- How Shadow Banks remain a significant risk to the market
- How fiscal policy can coordinate but not dominate monetary policy
"We should be relying on the central banks to do what they definitely can do and using the fiscal authority to do something that they can more certainly do than the central bank, which is to get spending going"
"Some MPC members now talk as if QE is mainly a signalling device. If they do, then their votes for the scale of QE are completely inexplicable"
"The extraordinary "Non-QE" QE in March.... It’s pretty hard to make sense of the March and April interventions... without thinking that this is price support"