Forecast Archives - Citrus Industry Magazine: Recent Episodes
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Total U.S. orange juice (OJ) production in the current 2021–22 season is forecast at 286 million single-strength equivalent (SSE) gallons, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service reported recently. If realized, this volume will be the lowest in more than 50 years. To compensate for lower production, U.S. OJ imports are expected to increase over last year, reaching more ...
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While the February Florida orange crop forecast saw a decline, Brazil’s February orange forecast is unchanged from its December forecast. Published on Feb. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators, the third 2021–2022 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt remains at 264.14 million boxes. Should this forecast hold true until harvest ends, Brazil’s ...
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Production of oranges, grapefruit and lemons in Israel is forecast to climb in 2021-22, but mandarin/tangerine production is expected to decline, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). ORANGESFAS expects orange production to remain low and below average at 58,000 metric tons in 2021-22, up slightly from 57,000 metric tons in 2020-21. The bulk of Israeli ...
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Conditions remain conducive for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported in early August. According to the latest NOAA outlook, the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15 to 21, including seven to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which three to five could ...
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Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers on Aug. 5 slightly reduced the number of storms and hurricanes they expect in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The researchers reduced the number of expected storms to 18, down from 20 in the July forecast. The number of expected storms is now the same as CSU projected in June. As for the expected ...
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Florida orange and red grapefruit production, already at historically low levels, will likely decline for years, according to a leading citrus economist. Tom Spreen, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences professor emeritus, calculated Florida crop output through the 2031-32 season based on various yield and tree replacement assumptions. Oranges and red grapefruit are Florida’s top-producing varieties. ...
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Orange production in China is forecast to grow to 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020–21, up from 7.4 MMT in 2019–20, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported. The increase will be driven mainly by new trees planted a few years ago in Jiangxi and other provinces. Those trees have started to produce more fruit. FAS ...
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The 2020–21 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is 269.36 million boxes. The updated forecast was published Dec. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The decrease of 17.36 million boxes represents a 6 percent decline in crop size from the September forecast update. ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONSExpected production was significantly hindered by ...
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The forecast for Florida orange and grapefruit production were each trimmed by approximately 2 percent on Dec. 10. Forecasts for all other citrus varieties in all citrus-producing states were unchanged from the initial October report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The Florida all-orange forecast is now for 56 million boxes, down from 57 million ...
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Elizabeth Steger, president of Citrus Consulting International, has forecast Florida’s 2020-21 orange crop at 62 million boxes. That is 8.35 percent fewer oranges than the 67.65 million boxes the state produced last season. [See the final 2019-20 season forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) here.] Steger has been forecasting the size of Florida’s orange crop prior to the ...
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A preliminary forecast for the Southern Hemisphere citrus season shows an expected small production decrease but an increase in exports.
The first crop production and export forecast for the 2020 season was released by the World Citrus Organisation (WCO) on May 29. The preliminary forecast is collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Chile, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay. The WCO is working with Brazil and Bolivia to include their data into the forecast soon.
The preliminary forecast shows that the 2020 Southern Hemisphere crop is expected to reach 8,387,341 tons, which represents a small decrease of 3 percent compared to the 2019 crop.
Exports are expected to increase by 12 percent to 3,486,883 tons, which could be explained by consumers’ higher demand for citrus fruit in COVID-19 times, the WCO stated. The higher demand would be due to the nutritional benefits associated with citrus and more home consumption, the organization added.
On the processing side, a total of 2,426,154 tons of citrus are expected to be destined to the juice market (pending the confirmation of Brazil’s data), which constitutes a decrease of 15 percent compared to 2019.
By citrus categories, the soft citrus and lemon and lime markets show stable figures, with similar production volumes compared to 2019. Oranges showed a 6 percent decrease, and grapefruit production increased by 3 percent compared to the previous year.
Expected export volumes show increases across all categories, with lemon and lime projected to have the greatest increase, up 32 percent compared to 2019.
The WCO announced that it is now fully operational with a complete agenda of activities for 2020. In July, a meeting of the membership will review the state of the industry and take stock of the latest consumer trends and producing countries’ experiences in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. In recent months, citrus has been highlighted as one of the most attractive fruit categories for consumers, given its health properties. Consequently, the issue of nutrition and promotion of citrus consumption will be discussed with members in the upcoming meeting.
Source: World Citrus Organisation
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Shannon Shepp
“I’m absolutely thrilled to see that number,” Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) Executive Director Shannon Shepp said after the 2018-19 Florida orange crop was forecast at 79 million boxes on Oct. 11. The strong forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service.
“I have been looking for positive news for quite some time in this industry and I think this is going to be a real morale booster for growers, and it’s also going to give consumers who have been looking for the world’s best orange juice a little more opportunity to find it,” Shepp said.
The FDOC in recent years has cut back on traditional “legacy” programs it has used in the past. “But when you have a number like 79 million boxes of oranges, it automatically leads you to (asking) what are we doing for recovering citrus. What are we going to pull back out of the closet in terms of legacy programs like retail programs or food service programs” to help move more juice, Shepp said.
According to Shepp, the FDOC’s preliminary 2018-19 budget was based on an estimate of 60 million boxes of oranges, so the higher forecast, if realized, will give the agency more money to spend. Much of the FDOC budget is funded with an assessment on each box of fruit that Florida growers sell.
“One of the things we have to really focus on is our fresh industry … It (the forecast) gives us an opportunity to have a little bit more budget room to focus on those things that get cut by the wayside when there is no budget,” Shepp said.
Hear more from Shepp:
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About the Author
Tacy CalliesEditor of Citrus Industry magazine
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