Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog: Recent Episodes
Martin North
Well, it seems the truth about the current slide in home prices is emerging, as falls are now quickly spreading to almost every suburb in Sydney and Melbourne, and also into smaller capitals too – once regarded as a one way upward bet by many – as the perfect storm of high inflation, flat wages, … Continue reading "Perfect Storm: Home Price Falls Are Spreading Like A Rash!"
This is a shorter than normal show today as Edwin was not able to join us. However I was able to discuss the latest coverage of the current property correction, thanks to Cookie, and also discussed the question of the RBA decision due tomorrow as mortgage applications are drying up and price falls are accelerating. … Continue reading "It’s Half A Monday Evening Property Rant!"
In our latest Friday afternoon Journalist Tarric Brooker and I dive deep into the economic and political landscape, with the help of his slides. and try to understand what is going on. And Doh! seems to sum up the current housing mess, the current migration discussions, and the polarisation between different household groups. Importantly, inflation … Continue reading "Doh!…. With Tarric Brooker"
There was something in the Labor woodshed about migration that emerged yesterday and which may well signal a further change in policy to reduce migration into Australia. Some tweaks are already in the system, though net migration is hard for governments to control because most of the temporary visa categories are driven by demand and … Continue reading "Will Labor Really Cut Migration And Will Home Prices Fall Further Too?"
In this show we dive into the minds of first time buyers and offer 5 reasons why they should buy now, and 5 reasons why they should wait, to highlight the dilemmas they face as the Australian property market is going through a significant pivot. The once sure bet of property values seemly always rising … Continue reading "The First Time Buyer Dilemma…"
In this edit of our live show we looked at the latest across the markets, from AI, the Energy Wars, Inflation and the latest company results with Head of Investments, Damien Klassen. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ … Continue reading "Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
July numbers are in, and price falls are widening, while listings rise, so what does this mean really? Well, in to-night’s show Edwin and I dive into the detail to figure this out. We also consider the risks from mold and trip hazards, and hidden cameras in property viewing. And Edwin has a tip which … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The latest data shows a deepening housing downturn, which has hit major capital city markets in Sydney and Melbourne hardest and is driving a vendor retreat. Cue The Benny Hill Music… Average home prices across all major centres are off their past peaks, something which will be confirmed when the property analysts publish their results … Continue reading "The Australian Property Horror Show Continues…"
This is our latest weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. As we exit July, superficially at least markets rebounded from volatile moves during the week as a bunch of macro issues from the future path of … Continue reading "Hopium Rules Markets, (Despite More Questions On AI, Rates And Energy) For Now…"
According to a recent ASIC report, millions of Australians rely on mortgage offset accounts to reduce the cost of their home loan, but an ASIC review has found customers may have been unknowingly paying more interest than they should because some banks failed to properly manage offset accounts. That’s because banks have not been delivering … Continue reading "Robbed Again: Banks Behaving Badly Making Mortgages More Expensive!"
Given the importance of the Federal Reserve to the global economy, I always watch the press conference after the Monetary Policy rate decision, the latest of which happened on Wednesday afternoon. Warsh evidently considering doing away with press conferences and on the performance we got, that may not be a bad idea. Actually, he spent … Continue reading "Is The FED All Talk And No Trousers?"
Do not be fooled, because while the ABS released a set of CPI reports today for June which were just a tad lower than market expectations, surging home-building and services costs could still force the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates later this year. They included the June monthly, and the quarterly series, … Continue reading "Inflation: Still A Massive Problem For Australia!"
In this edit of our live show I was joined by Leith van Onselen Chief Economist at Macrobusiness and Nucleus Wealth. We examined the latest economic and political drivers of the housing market. How will this play out, and will Government intervention change the story, or are we set for a long drawn-out slide? Go … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: The Great Australian Property Bust: For How Long? With Leith van Onselen"
The latest from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we parse the latest industry commentary on the property market. Are the falls significant and widespread, and will they continue? What can we tell from previous property cycles? If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The evidence is gathering that the Australian property market is continuing to wilt, as buyer sentiment remains subdued. And the truth is, we are probably only in the foothills of the property bust so far. This week’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 52.4 per cent across 1421 auctions, according to Cotality research. It’s the third … Continue reading "The Great Australian Property Bust… For How Long?"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. Most markets posted weekly losses, dragged down by the widening conflict in the Middle East, concerns over heavy capital spending by major names such as Alphabet and … Continue reading "Markets React To Red Light Warnings from AI, Inflation, Energy Wars and Tariffs!"
In this show I look at post code 2251, (Avoca Beach, Bensville, Copacabana, Davistown, Green Point, Kincumber, Macmasters Beach, Saratoga, Yattalunga) and examine the latest price trends and broader drivers of this area. The 2251 area around Copacabana and Davistown is best understood as a mature, high‑amenity coastal and waterfront cluster with limited capacity for … Continue reading "A Deep Dive On Central Coast Property!"
Today we got the ABS Labour Force data for June 2026 and the strong result cements further the likelihood of another RBA rate hike this year. Traders are now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of higher borrowing costs when the RBA meets next month and are now fully priced for one more increase … Continue reading "The Case For More Rate Hikes Builds As Job Markets Remains (Mostly) Strong!"
One of the critical factors in our core market model is a set of linkages between home price momentum and input factors, such as demand, migration, interest rates, Government incentives, inflation and availability of credit. Each has an influence on the others, and on the trajectory of home prices. But the greatest of these is … Continue reading "Home Price Momentum Crushed By Credit Drought!"
This past week marks an important turning point in the raging bull of the Australian property market. So perhaps it’s time to rethink fair value, despite the fact a recent poll from a November 13–26 survey of 15 property analysts showed national home prices rising around 8% this year and 6.9% in 2026, up from … Continue reading "Property Fools Us Again?"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Generally, markets trend higher in December, in the so-called Santa rally as traders position to maximise end of year returns. So, after last week’s shemozzle is Santa … Continue reading "Is A Santa Rally Back On The Agenda Now?"
With all the noise over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday we want people to think about whether there are REAL deals out there, or if its simply credit induced spin which could lead to tears later. So we look at the latest data on credit, and especially the rise of Buy Now Pay Later … Continue reading "Black Friday Sales May End In Grief…."
As I have been highlighting, lending for mortgages has been growing way faster than inflation, including for investor borrowers, and this is first lifting prices because the growth of credit is one of the stronger levers of home price growth, along side higher migration, but also put more households in high-debt to income scenarios, while … Continue reading "Banks’ Home Lending Mobbed By A Wet Lettuce (Again)!"
This is my edit of our monthly housing and economic update recorded in conjunction with Nuggets News. In this months edition, I explore the latest developments in AI, the crypto ructions, the Australian housing market and the recent economic data which raises some important questions as we barrel into then end of 2025. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details … Continue reading "The Economic Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost!"
This is a edit of a live show where we took a deep to dive into the market psychology which is driving markets, property and gold, with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, and asked whether there is more sentiment than logic at play, as financial markets have dropped recently, though Australian property is on the up, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Market Psychology Ups And Downs: With Tony Locantro"
Could it be that the momentum in the property market is taking an early bath, as we slide into summer? Well, certainly according to the AFR, the diminishing prospects of an interest rate cut any time soon have dampened buyers’ spirits and caused the auction clearance rate to slip below 70 per cent as the … Continue reading "Property Markets Slide Into Summer?"
This is my weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Just like days one and two of the first ashes test in Perth, where wickets fell and innings collapsed fast, the financial markets this week experienced a … Continue reading "A Wild Ride To Nowhere As Markets Bite Back!"
Strip back the political spin, and its clear Australia faces a weak economy ahead, based on a rising structural deficit, and falling productivity. The Titanic and Icebergs springs to mind, as an unsinkable ship sank, and strong migration, Government support for households, and a growing public sector will not be enough to turn the ship … Continue reading "Australia’s Titanic Moment Approaches, As Spin Overrides Reality!"
This is an edit of a special live Q&A show, featuring Robbie Barwick, National Chairman, National Research Director and 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria for the Australian Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ Robbie recently returned from a study tour across China, and in this show you can question him about what he observed during the trip. This … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: A Bull In A China Shop: Ask Robbie Barwick Live!"
Australia’s annual wage growth remained elevated last quarter, underscoring a tight labor market and persistently weak productivity and suggesting inflationary pressures may take time to cool in a challenge for policy makers. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, it means an interest rate cut in the near term remains unlikely. In addition wages growth is … Continue reading "The Inconvenient Truth About The Wages Price Index “Good News”"
This is an edit of a live stream where we dived into the economic maelstrom which is Australia, with Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, co-founder of Macrobusiness, and at Nucleus Wealth. We seem to be hit by an series of bad policies, which are degrading the outcomes for many households, yet Canberra seems stuck in … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Time To Stop The Economic Shadow Boxing: With Leith van Onselen"
This is an edit of a recent show I recorded with Adam Stokes on his channel, where we did a deep dive into international trade, Albo’s recent US trip and the questions surrounding AUKUS, Rare Earths and Australian Superannuation. We got pretty philosophical!
Australia’s core inflation accelerated beyond expectations last quarter, complicating the Reserve Bank’s path to further policy easing and prompting money markets to slash bets on a near-term interest-rate cut. The latest data is way off the RBA’s August forecast, from 0.6% for the trimmed mean to 1%, and clearly heading in the wrong direction. Heads … Continue reading "SURPRISE! Time To Forget About More Rate Cuts As CPI Jumps?"
Today we dive into the thorny question of First Time Buyers and the recent attempts by Government to stoke the market. With the help of Founder and Principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers Veronica Morgan, we pull apart the current market and consider issues raised from viewer questions. Veronica Morgan is the Founder and Principal … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Avoiding Traps For First Time Buyers: With Veronica Morgan"
This is an edit of a live show as we go through our latest analysis, and deep dive on households and their finances. We will have the post code engine on line, so you can nominate specific post codes for analysis. Ratios of net disposable income to mortgage and rental payments are still very elevated. … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: How Real Households Are Coping With The Property Pickle, Despite The Hype"
Associate Professor John Wright is back to dive further into the root cause of the property market crisis: carry trades. In his earlier show we discussed the philosophy based on his new book. https://youtu.be/fWTsHsGBHzY In this show we go deeper, as John Wright centres on the concept of Carry Trades and the practical implications. When … Continue reading "The Real Estate Carry Trade Is A “Death Star”: With John Wright"
Robbie Barwick, the Research Director at the Australian Citizens Party and I discuss the latest from Estimates, where again it is clear who is pulling the strings, and playing the tunes for the politicians from the major parties. We play some of the essential moments relating to bank branch closures and ASIC, to highlight why … Continue reading "The Banks Have Got The Major Parties By The Throat!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. This was quite a week, again, as markets tested new highs earlier in the week, before being skittled by Trump’s latest tariff announcement is reported as retaliatory … Continue reading "Spooked!"
I caught up with journalist Tarric Brooker to explore the latest stupidity across property, economics and politics. When you look at the data, you might wonder if things can get better, or not. From high home prices, to delayed household formation, it seems things are working against us – are we tracking the Japan story … Continue reading "Have We Reached Peak Idiocy Yet? With Tarric Brooker"
Dr Michael Rehm, a senior lecturer in property at the University of Auckland was quoted in the Guardian recently as saying “Buyers and sellers are starting to get the impression that house prices in New Zealand do not always go up. We’re finally breaking down that long-held belief.” Which begs the question, will the latest … Continue reading "Kiwis Get a 0.5% Rate Cut; As Economy Stalls And Home Prices Fall!"
Gold reached and briefly surpassed $4,000 per ounce in early October 2025 which traded below $2,000 just two years ago, with returns that now outstrip those for equities this century. Gold has jumped more than 50% this year. This new record is both a market milestone and a signal of deeper macro‑political stress and importantly … Continue reading "Gold Tops The 4K Mountain; So Where Next?"
Markets are shrugging off bad news, and heading for the stars, so will we see a melt-up into the end of the year, or are concerns over the debasement trade, the US close down and the AI mutual investments going to spoil the party? Join Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: Are The Bulls In Charge? With Damien Klassen"
A big outing this week, following the 1st October First Buyer changes, and the myopic reporting in the MSM. What are the real stories we should be exploring? Edwin and I dive deep into the mire… If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Despite the media hype around the price inflating first home owner incentives, there is a broader story to tell about household finances and the impact unaffordable housing and high rents are having on society. So in this show, we examine the latest media floss, as well as the latest from our household surveys and modelling … Continue reading "How Real Households Are Coping With The Property Pickle; Despite The Hype…"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, and cover commodities and crypto along the way. Today we ask whether the rising popularity of bitcoin and gold reflects deeper economic anxieties. And with US Government now shut down while market has historically … Continue reading "Enter The Debasement Trade; As Markets Claw Higher; Despite Reality Dawning…"
There was, in my view some significant misdirection contained in the Reserve Bank’s recently released Financial Stability Review, released on Thursday, which they say provides a comprehensive assessment of the health and resilience of Australia’s financial system.All up they say that Australia’s financial system remains well positioned to navigate a period of elevated global uncertainty, … Continue reading "Everything Is Fine Folks; Just Look Over Here! But…."
Judging by all the spruiking, property markets are about to boom, and crowds of first time buyers are crowding in. But actually, the real story is rather different not least because of the real incomes required to service a 95% loan. So today we examine this, and also the regional property question. Although the high-level … Continue reading "Time For Some Home Truths: Maybe?"
Housing affordability is getting worse, home prices continued to trek higher in September, according to the latest data from Cotality. The recent 3 rate cuts have put a rocket on price movements, pumped by high migration demand, investor demand, and from first time buyers, demand there will be pumped further of course as the enhance … Continue reading "Some Home Prices Boom Higher; As Expected: But Words And Figures Differ…"
This is an edit of our live show in which we discussed the RBA decision today, and continued our series about the new First Time Buyer Government scheme to start 1 October. I was joined by Aaron Scott from bRight Agent. There are some important factors to consider, which potentially have significant implications for people … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Avoiding The First Time Property Trap: With bRight"
Another Rant, this week, with a new mike for Edwin as we dive deep into the murky waters of the property market. From off-market deals, to high-rise for oldies, we pick apart the latest news, and underscore an important warning! If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Continuing our series on First Time Buyers, we look at the latest data from the Bank of Mum and Dad (or better The Family Bank!), and dig into the other channels though which prospective first time buyers can get assistance, thanks to Federal and State initiatives (which by the way are impossible to cost out, … Continue reading "First Time Buyers In Wonderland!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As artificial intelligence stocks such as Nvidia, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet push higher and higher, and even tech laggards such as Oracle and Intel suddenly catch … Continue reading "Close To Full Ponzi? Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere; But Will They Pop Or Not?"
Another Friday evening deep dive into the economy, with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest trends in real income, the thorny question of the trajectory of interest rates and the future direction of the political discourse around migration and climate change. And yes folks, TB’s audio is now up to snuff! His … Continue reading "Australia’s Economy Is Worse Than You Think! With Tarric Brooker"
This is an edit of a special event, ahead of the new First Time Buyer Scheme launching 1st October 2025, as I am joined by the CEO of Alcove Mortgage Brokers, Chris Bates who over the past 11 years, has helped 1,000s of clients navigate the challenge of successfully buying their first home. Purchasing not … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Avoiding The First Time Property Trap: With Chris Bates"
The latest monthly inflation read from the ABS shook analysts and markets, because it came in much hotter than expected. “It’s a very hot CPI print,” said Andrew Lilley, chief rate strategist at Barrenjoey. “It’s a lot hotter than anybody expected. The market will see this as inconsistent with the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting … Continue reading "The Inflation Monster Stirs Again…"
For a change, property insider Edwin Almeida and I went live for our regular property rant this week. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from Ribbon Property Consultants standing along side you. Buying property, is … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Its Edwin’s Property Rant LIVE!"
From the more than 5,000 shows in our archive there are a few which stand out as being important in shaping our understand of finance, property, society and politics. Today we reprise a show from 2020 recorded with my friend George, where we went down the rabbit hole to ask what is real, and how … Continue reading "DFA Classic: What’s Really Going On Under The Hood? Let’s Go Down The Rabbit Hole!"
From the more than 5,000 shows in our archive there are a few which stand out as being important in shaping our understand of finance, property, society and politics. Today we reprise a show from 2020 recorded with I caught up with Guy Standing, Professorial Research Associate at SOAS University of London Today in one … Continue reading "Guy Standing’s Eight Giants And The Potential For UBI"
Forward guidance seems to have evaporated today! The Central Bankers seem to push their forecasts out again, as inflation remains hot. But Central Bankers seem caught in the headlights of conflicting data and political pressure, especially in the USA. Many households are caught in the cross-fire! How credible is the pursuit of the “2%”? This … Continue reading "Central Bank Fest With A Bias To Cutting…"
I regularly get comments from viewers that the official data on CPI and employment seem a bit off. And of course there is data from other sources which suggests this is the case. We need a good data compass to understand what is going on in the economy, and its probably more important now that … Continue reading "Behind the Numberwang: Can You Trust Official Statistics?"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Chief Economist Leith van Onselen (one of our most popular guests!) as we explore the latest economic data and dive deep into the chaos created by years of poor policy. Leith is the co-founder of Macrobusiness, and Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We did a deep dive … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Who Killed The Australian Economy? With Leith van Onselen"
Another deep dive into the property market with our insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest “stories” in the media about home price momentum, new data on what is happening, and a couple of critical case studies… Has the Blue Screen of Death hit the Australian economy? Note next week we will live … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As I mentioned last week, I regard these posts as perhaps the most important I make, even if not the most popular, so I was gratified by … Continue reading "AI Tide Lifts All Boats; Including The Leaky Ones!"
This is my edit of a long form discussion with Adam Stokes broadcast on his channel last night. We pull apart the news from the US shooting of Charlie Kirk and reflect on the broader issues below the surface, through a deeply philosophical lens. What does it say about our political leaders and processes, society … Continue reading "WTF Just Happened? Beyond Left Versus Right!"
More stats from the ABS today suggesting high numbers of people visiting Australia, but does this also mean migration is still booming? Well according to the ABS we cannot draw such conclusions, but then if you look harder, it does appear migration is rising, despite the wish to high the fact – so can we … Continue reading "Let’s Not Talk About Migration Then…."
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Investors are aggressively buying into riskier assets, sending bitcoin and companies focused on artificial intelligence to new highs as they shrug off months of uncertainty caused by … Continue reading "Tariff Noose Tightens Even As Investors Buy Riskier Assets… But…"
Today we look at the latest from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand where rates were held, though following cuts of 2.25%, compared with the RBA 0.5%. Uncertainly remains the watchword. So we reflect on the different inflation track, and look at rental inflation in particular, in the light of the latest Domain data showing … Continue reading "Central Banks In Wonderland: As RBNZ Holds Too!"
Yesterday as I discussed in my live show, the RBA held the cash rate at 3.85%, which surprised almost all economists, the media, and Labor politicians alike. If you listen to Michelle Bullock, at the press conference, she was careful to talk about, caution, waiting for more data because the monthly inflation stats are volatile, … Continue reading "“Kersplat”: The Collision Between Economics And Politics!"
This is an edit of a live discussion as I walk though the latest analysis from our household surveys, and go granular in terms of the impact of rate cuts, mortgage and rental stress, and the potential trajectory of home prices. I will have the post code engine on line. Details of our one to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Rate Cuts, Home Prices And Financial Stress: Granular Deep Dive"
In this week’s Property Rant, we discuss wolves in sheep’s clothing, as we ask who is really paying the bills, and who are the property winners and losers? We also delve into our “Pavlova” apartments, and highlight the latest property BS, in which we seem to be drowning at the moment! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The truth is that the current Government approach to housing which is based on building 1.2 million new homes over a 5-year period won’t be met. As I reported recently the running total is 60,000 homes below what would be required to meet the target. But worse, the strategy is driving the states to permit … Continue reading "The Strata Nightmare Continues…"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. US markets were closed on Friday thanks to the July 4 Independence Day celebrations. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed at record highs on Thursday … Continue reading "As Markets Melt Upwards, Are Things Falling Apart?"
Two years ago Investment Manager Tony Locantro had a radical change of direction in terms of life-style and diet. On this second anniversary I caught up with him to reflect on his journey, and discussed the broader questions of the deadly embrace of big-pharma and big-food and how this is causing harm, and what we … Continue reading "Tony Locantro’s Two Year Carniversary!"
We review the latest data, including from the DFA Household Surveys to consider what may happen next to property across the country. Its complicated, with supply, demand and Government policy drivers messing with the markets. Granularity is important, as is filtering the high-level spruiking. In some areas prices are continuing to fall or go sideways. … Continue reading "How Will The Current Property Mess Play Out?"
New Zealand had been an anomaly for some time in that in had introduced the clearest Deposit Bail-in scheme in the world, via the Open Banking Resolution (OBR) which in the case of a bank failure, OBR allows a portion of depositors’ funds to be temporarily frozen and used to recapitalize the bank, while the … Continue reading "Finally, Kiwis Get Some Deposit Protection!"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments Damien Klassen, as we parse the latest from the markets. We are looking at all time highs again, but what does this really signify. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now: More All Time Highs Ahead? With Damien Klassen"
A deep dive this week into the drivers of property prices, and who is to blame for the rising inter-generation tensions, as Edwin Almeida and I discuss the latest trends across the Australian property market. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
OK, I am done with taking the Saturday releases from the likes of Domain and Cotality as anything meaningful. To illustrate the point, the latest in the AFR cities Cotality data claiming the national auction clearance rate has risen to its highest level in a year after two interest rate cuts and the possibility of … Continue reading "Calling Out The Auction Clearance BS Again!"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. Well, it’s been another extraordinary week, as the MSCI Global Index hit a new all time, along with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Investors hope the US … Continue reading "“Nothing Ever Happens” As Markets Reach All Time Highs (Again!)"
Sometimes I think I live in a parallel world compared with the state and federal politicians who combined seem intent on driving more households into oblivion, in attempt to keep those home prices pumping higher. This despite the obvious disconnect between prices and affordability, and the link between inflated money supply via debt, and home … Continue reading "Fibs, Bribes, And Plain Stupidity Hooks More First Time Buyers…"
There are growing concerns that we may be in the late stages of a global asset bubble—though whether it’s a full-blown bubble or just elevated valuations depends on who you ask and which asset class you’re looking at. So we look at the latest data, and talk to Harry Dent, the famous author and economist, … Continue reading "Inside The Impossible Everything Bubble!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Veronica Morgan, as we explore the highs and lows of Buyers Agents, with the help of some case studies and questions. How do you pick a good one? Can you trust them? Can they help, or hinder? Veronica Morgan is the Founder and Principal of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: A Hitchhikers Guide To Buyers Agents: With Veronica Morgan"
In this weeks show we uncover four pieces of good news, as well as pushing on some of the big issues of the day. Will property benefit from the current instability in the middle east? Will Governments cut red tape? Will pigs fly? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Sad to say we saw a major escalation of the conflict in the middle east overnight as US President Donald Trump decided to join the Israeli attacks on Iran. Remember, this is the president who wanted to end America’s “forever wars” but he has joined the Israeli attack, against the wishes of many prominent Republicans. … Continue reading "Duck And Cover As US Bombs Iran!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets have clawed their way back towards record highs in recent weeks, following the early April Trump tariff experiments. The MSCI global index was flat on the … Continue reading "Betting On The TACO Trade, Or Bust…!"
I thought I would try an experiment today, using AI to examine Australian housing affordability. So I did some research with Copilot. I started with the question of why Home Prices in Australia are so high Relative to Incomes. The reply seems remarkably on point. In summary, Australia faces one of the most acute housing … Continue reading "What AI Knows About Housing Affordability That Our Leaders Duck!"
We got a master performance from Fed Chain Powell yesterday in saying as little as possible, while avoiding all the pitfalls and not mentioning stagflation once. The Fed confirmed on Wednesday that a targeted federal funds rate had been held at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% following its rate-setting open market committee’s latest two-day … Continue reading "Watching Paint Dry Would Have Been More Fun…!"
Across the ditch, the story of home prices and affordability is completely different from Australia. So far, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 2.25%, which has lowered mortgage rates by around 2% over the past year. The good news is that falling interest rates, heavy price cuts, and … Continue reading "Kiwis Get More Good News On Housing Affordability!"
This is an edit of a live discussion as we explore the latest DFA modelling on financial stress across the country. We will have the post code engine on line, as well as our mapping tools. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Mapping Financial Stress Across Australia"
This week we deep dive into the property data to debunk more claims about massive price rises, as well as call out NCB (Dummy Bidding) and other tricks of the trade. Given the emotion simmering under the surface, and being stoked by poorly written articles in some quarters, linked to the property industry, we lay … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Last week I discussed the weaker auction and clearance results, centred on the impact of the King’s Birthday long weekend, which cut the number of auctions held by around one-third. In the end, Sydney’s final auction clearance rate subsequently fell to 58.1%, the lowest result this year. But of course, this week, it’s a different … Continue reading "“No Choice: But Forced To Buy Units Ahead Of Rate Cuts!”"
This is our weekly market update. We begin in the US, move to Europe and Asia, and conclude in Australia, also covering commodities and cryptocurrency. Recent tensions in the Middle East increased oil prices, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold. Oil prices rose following Iran’s response to Israel’s significant military … Continue reading "At The Edge Of The Abyss, Or Just Noise?"
In a recent 1:1 conversation, I was asked why I keep talking about the drivers of housing affordability, when it seems those in charge default to a simplistic “its all supply” response. My simple answer was, and is, because the real story needs to be told, especially now. We just got a report from the … Continue reading "The Migration Elephant In The Room Is MIA In Yet Another Housing Crisis Report!"
Now we know that the Pentagon has launched a review of the AUKUS pact as the Trump administration looks to shift the burden for collective defense to allies and make sure the US has enough warships of its own. In 2021 AUKUS was the Biden-era the US$240bn agreement with Britain and Australia in which Australia … Continue reading "Is The AUKUS Stupidity About To Be Called Out?"
I remember when I was traveling in Asia some year back, I had many people tell me about China’s ability to think long term, and play for long term wins. I recalled those conversations this week, as two days of talks on trade ended in London on Tuesday. Between the US and China. They are … Continue reading "The US China Trade Smoke And Mirrors…"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the latest from the markets. Many indices are now close to all time highs again, as the trade war risks are downplayed, yet long terms bond rates remain elevated, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now: Are Markets Back To Normal? With Damien Klassen"
Another dose of sense from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick over the coals of the market, after a weaker auction session this week. Which begs the question, are markets set to run higher, or are other factors in play? Where is the new money coming from, and what will the consequences be? … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
If you look at the data on property, and specifically mortgage lending, there is something lurking in the woodshed. It is simply this. Mainstream bank lending has become the preserve of wealthier, older borrowers, with a combination of lending rules, risk aversion, climbing asset prices, and rising living costs locking younger, less wealthy Australians out … Continue reading "Property Lies, Distortions And Social Consequences…"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the battle of the two mega egos, of Tump and Musk, which raged this week on socials, the lynch-pin was a deep question about the sustainability … Continue reading "Flying Blind? Markets Sway As Global Debt Bomb Looms!"
On Wednesday Commonwealth Bank shares hit a record $181.10, to become the first ASX-listed company to be valued at more than $300 billion. By comparison, the country’s second-largest company by value, BHP, has a market capitalisation of $192 billion. The iron ore giant had been the ASX’s biggest stock since it collapsed its British company, … Continue reading "Is CBA ≥ NVIDIA?"
The slang term “Jumping The Shark” according to the Urban Dictionary, is when something has reached its peak and begun a downhill slide to mediocrity or oblivion. It was especially applied to TV shows like the Happy Days episode where Fonzie jumps over a shark while on water-skis. This was considered to be the low … Continue reading "Is Australia At Risk Of “Jumping The Shark?”"
There is massive wealth tied up in Australian property, but there some important questions which follow from this, especially given the expectation of inter-generational wealth transfer ahead, Governments seeking more tax sources, and the family bank becoming even more important in family finances. This show looks at these issues, and sheets the consequences back to … Continue reading "Can The Property Market Python Swallow The Equity Elephant?"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist and Joint Founder of Macrobusiness. We dived into the latest trends across the Australian economy and delved into the expected trajectory of home prices ahead, as well as broader issues including migration and productivity. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Nightmare Ahead? With Leith van Onselen"
In our regular show, Edwin and I unpack the latest property data and ask whether the booming headlines about more home price growth ahead tells the full story (clue: no). We also look at the latest from the Wee Chat Chatters and parse the statistics on auctions and clearance rates. And we meet the Godfathers … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
If you believe the hype, households across Australia are experiencing waves of relief, as rates are cut, incomes rise and inflation falls. But, judging by the results from my latest surveys, this is far from true. Worse, home prices could well start taking off again, as supply does meet demand from new migrants, and other … Continue reading "Is The Financial Stress Worm Finally Turning Or Is It Eating It’s Young?"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. Another chaotic week, with the tariff issues spinning into farce, even as long term bond yields claw higher, and friction with China and the US continues. Sentiments … Continue reading "Tariffs; The Uncertainty Gift That Keeps Giving…"
Australia’s economic woes can be sheeted to poor Government on housing, tax non-reform and many other factors, but the mother of all problems is the costs of energy. I find in amazing that despite swimming in gas being sucked from the ground by several large multinational companies who apparently pay no tax, they sell the … Continue reading "The Gas Long Con Continues; For Now… At What Cost?"
Here we go again, more uncertainly relating to Trumps Favorite policy tool, which has been thrown into turmoil after the US trade court issued a rare rebuke blocking many of the import taxes he has threatened and imposed on other countries. The US trade court is part of the nation’s federal court system and was … Continue reading "The Tariff Snakes And Ladders Game Takes Another Turn!"
New Zealand has been on a more aggressive monetary policy path, having pushed rates high enough to create a recession, then cut them again after starting its easing cycle in August lowering the OCR by 225 points including another 25 basis points today, making the RBNZ one of the most aggressive rate cutters among its … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Cut: But Will Home Prices Respond?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager at Alto Capital Tony Locantro, as we explore the current financial and social landscape. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: What The ??? Just Happened? With Tony Locantro"
Edwin and I discuss the latest from the property market, and the political and economic events which underpin it. Funny how politicians seem to look after their own interests, not ours, and how the spin from the property sector continues to diverge from reality on the ground. Meantime, energy prices are set to rise, even … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Believe it or not, its now 12 months since the Senate Inquiry into Regional Banking released their report. You may recall that I, working with The Regional’s Dale Webster, alongside the Citizens Party and others, managed to get the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport References Committee to look at banking in the regions, and … Continue reading "No Cash, Crickets And A War Of Mass Distraction!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. U.S. equities pulled back this week after a torrid rally, as investors turned their attention to tax and spending legislation poised to swell the U.S. government’s $36 … Continue reading "The Markets React To The Art Of The Deal Going Full Picasso!"
The strong message I continue to get from my household surveys is that many households feel trapped in the jaws of ever higher prices, and see a real devaluation in their effective income, which means they are going backwards. Many are working more hours and multiple jobs to try and get by. Yet the Government … Continue reading "Reality Versus The Statisticians: Yes You Do Have An Real Income Recession!"
Something important is happening in the Bond markets which will impact us all. In short, all around the world it seems, investors are more reluctant to lend to governments over long terms. Overall, bond investors are demanding more compensation to buy longer maturities — and not just for the US. Japanese and UK 30-year yields … Continue reading "Signals From The Bond Market Front Line…"
Funny how Bond markets seem to look past most of what RBA Governor Michelle Bullock said in her post Monetary Policy Committee meeting yesterday, but remember they are gamblers. As was expected, the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent in its second reduction this year, but revelations during … Continue reading "Expect The Unexpected As Uncertainty Spirals…"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. This week markets were bullish, with the MSCI global index up 1.7% across the week, and up 0.3% just on Friday. Even the European STOXX 600 which … Continue reading "Markets Still Peaking Into Infinite Uncertainty: As Rules Are Broken!"
Those in the rental sector of the property market, a growing proportion of the population, are in the crosshairs of the affordability crisis. Indeed, as discussed in my live show on Tuesday, around 76% of those renting have a cash-flow deficit, or are in rental stress. The latest data from the ABS reported that Rental … Continue reading "Propaganda Says Rental Crisis Is Easing; But Don’t Believe it…."
As foreshadowed, housing has become a major battleground for the main parties, as record prices, an acute shortage of rental properties and high interest rates combine to significantly reduce affordability. We know that on an international basis, household debt to income ratios in Australia are significantly higher, than even New Zealand and Canada, who both … Continue reading "The Credit Monster Which Is Strangling Australia!"
This is my monthly summary of recent global and local economic events, based on an edited conversation I record with Nuggets News. This time we look at the Trump effect, higher for longer interest rates, and the impact of tariffs. Plus the local impact of poor housing policy and the upcoming election. Some important questions … Continue reading "Economic Update: February 2025"
This is an edit of a live discussion as I walked through my latest analysis at a post code level, looking at financial pressure, and future price scenarios. We focused specifically on property investment by looking at gross and net rental yields, including heat maps of major urban centers. Some are deeply under water!! http://www.martinnorth.com/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Feeling The Pain: A Deep Dive Into Post Code Property Data"
Despite the restrictions on what we can say (sic) Edwin and I are back for another Rant, looking at the latest industry tricks, and numbers. We also kick around the questions around auctions, including vendor paid advertising, and how to counteract the emotion drummed up at the event. And, given the hopes of rate cuts, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The 14th February is the closing date for submissions to the Treasury relating to the ongoing access to cash in Australia. I made a show on this called “Are We In The Midst Of A Cash Long Con?” and argued there that the Government many well be playing a long con with the community ahead … Continue reading "In The Grips Of A Cash Famine, By Design…"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. It’s the digest I use to help me understand what’ happening, and I hope it may help you too, despite the fact that this show actually takes … Continue reading "Higher For Longer Is The Watchword, As Confusion Reigns…."
Journalist Tarric Brooker is back with charts, to parse the latest economic data, as we look at who is really calling the shots. Truth is, below the headline data there are some important issue to pick apart. And what we are being presented as the truth may be spin. Tarric’s charts are available at: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-7th-february-2025 … Continue reading "Who’s Really Calling The Shots? With Tarric Brooker"
The RBA has held the cash rate at a 13-year high for more than a year, awaiting further evidence that inflation is irreversibly back to its 2 per cent to 3 per cent target. Markets since Mr Trump returned to the White House are on a roller-coaster ride as I discussed on my live show … Continue reading "RBA Rate Cut Not A Done Deal Yet, But…"
The New Zealand unemployment rate continues to climb, reaching 5.1% in the December 2024 quarter, according to the latest Stats NZ figures – the highest level it’s been since 2020. It’s up from 4.8% in the September 2024 quarter. Men accounted for 85% of the annual decrease in employment, reflecting substantial falls in the male-dominated … Continue reading "Kiwi Unemployment Rate Rises To 5.1%, Highest Since 2020!"
With Parliament back after the summer break, if Parliamentary Question Time anything to go by, the issue of costs of living pressures will be front and centre of the upcoming campaigns. Worth reflecting how effective Trump proved to be in the US asking the question, are you better off now, or previously, Of course words … Continue reading "Will Cost Of Living Be The Epicentre Of The Upcoming Election?"
This is an edited live discussion with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. The world has changed, as the international “rules based order” comes under pressure from Trump’s tariffs. What are the implications for investors, and how should we prepare for greater volatility and uncertainty? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Investing Now; As Trade Wars Emerge: With Damien Klassen"
In tonight’s show we catch up on Edwin’s predictions – does NOSTRADAMUS walk among us? We look at the massive rise in Council Tax, and also the rise in listings, but only in some places. And given the upcoming election we examine some of the early promises being made in the quasi campaign, despite the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The news outlets are full of more property news, with some spruiking that the hope of a rate cut in February has spurred people into action after the holidays, with a focus on Melbourne property prices rebounding. So, let’s look at the data and see what is happening. Actually, the January update on prices from … Continue reading "Did Hope Of A Rate Cut Stoke The Property Market?"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, this was a volatile week, as questions over AI tech, tariffs and inflation all converged to stoke significant volatility across the trading days. Monday saw … Continue reading "Warning: Market Volatility Squared Ahead As Black Swans Land!"
Many are calling for a RBA cash rate cut in February, but as we look at the overall data indicators, its a line ball call, and stripping away the political pressure and overdone economic commentary, the case is not as strong as you might think. Indeed, the latest RBA Credit Aggregates were pretty strong, and … Continue reading "Is The RBA Really All In For A Rate Cut In February?"
In an interesting alignment of timing, we had Central Bankers at the Fed, the bank of Canada and also the ECB who will turn up today talk about their latest monetary decisions. And whilst it is expected the ECB will cut again, and in Canada they cut rates and announced the end of QT, the … Continue reading "Central Bankers Start Fretting As Trump 2.0 Rolls On!"
Australia has been a global outlier in the current easing cycle as most developed world central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have already cut substantially. The Fed is due to announce the outcome of its meeting later today and is expected to stand pat. The RBA, in tackling inflation through 2022-23, opted for a lower … Continue reading "Does The CPI Numberwang Show That Politics Wins?"
This is an edit of a live discussion with founder of bRight Agent, Aaron Scott, and our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we examine the current property market, and how picking the right Real Estate Agent can make a BIG difference. Find & Compare Local Agents, and SAVE MONEY with bRight Agent! https://brightagent.com/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Let’s Play The Property Game By New Rules…"
This week we examine the post holiday ramp up ahead of “Super Saturday” in a couple of weeks. The press coverage has been all about listings rising, but is that the whole picture. We also look at the risks of purchasing the wrong property and the problem of home insurance, with more properties likely to … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Something a bit weird is happening in property markets across Australia. Normally as we head into the peak autumn selling season momentum and prices tend to step up. But so far sellers are racing to beat the competition into a falling market already padded by properties that failed to sell in spring last year and … Continue reading "Is Brisbane The Next City To See The Home Price Fall Shoe Drop?"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. This past week saw the presidential torch passed to Trump with a flurry of edicts following, as the tech bros and rich people look on. Markets continue to speculate on the real impact of … Continue reading "Markets Reach Higher On Trump Change But Expect The Unexpected"
The debate about when and if the RBA cuts the cash rate continues to run, with many property spruikers claiming people should buy now before the cuts arrive, because home prices will start to run again, when cuts do arrive. Just don’t mention the extreme unaffordability. Earlier this month, Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ) … Continue reading "Even Rate Cuts Won’t Help Home Prices…"
Today I want to revisit one of Australia’s most stupid policies which are in turn driving manufacturing offshore, and hitting households and businesses with higher costs, and forcing the Government to spend tax-payer funds on energy subsidies for households to try and keep inflation down. We are in the unspeakable position where Australia, who owns … Continue reading "Australia Is Plain Stupid As Gas Prices Roar!"
We are crossing the ditch to New Zealand today to look at the latest home price data from the REINZ, and the latest inflation data from the RBNZ. The New Zealand property market experienced a relatively quiet month in December 2024. Actually, sales increased by 1.8% nationwide compared to December 2023, rising from 5,420 to … Continue reading "Kiwis Hold Their Breath On Property, And Rates."
The ABS today released its building activity data for the September quarter 2024. This data provides estimates of the value of building work and number of dwellings commenced, completed and under construction across Australia and its states and territories. They report that Australia commenced construction on just 43,250 new homes in the first quarter of … Continue reading "Housing Targets Missed By A Country Mile…"
This is an edit of a live discussion as we deep dive into my latest mortgage, rental and investor stress modelling across Australian post codes. Property for many is turning into a nightmare! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: The Great Australian Nightmare…. A Post Code Deep Dive"
As the new property year kicks off, Edwin our property insider and I look at the really slow ramp-up, as politics collides with reality, and the ground moves under our feet. We look at the idea of settling property in Bitcoin, the latest numbers, and a new tool to examine suburb level data, as well … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Last Tuesday on my live show, I discussed the current Treasury paper on Mandating Cash Acceptance in Australia. But today I want to take this further and I will outline my concern that the Government many well be playing a long con with the community ahead of the upcoming election. The paper says Cash acceptance … Continue reading "Are We In The Midst Of A Cash Long Con?"
In the first show of our regular weekly run this year Edwin, our property insider and I look at the coverage of 2024, and the year ahead, and discuss where truth lays. The fact is some are changing their story as quickly as the wind blows. Why might that be? Always, we look at the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The gap between average prices and affordability has widened substantially, and it is unlikely things will turn around anytime soon. And rate cuts are far from certain in the short term. If you deep dive into where home prices have risen and fallen over the past year, it reinforces the need to go granular to … Continue reading "Where Property Is Falling (and Rising)… And Why…"
This is our weekly market update, starting in the US, Europe, Asia and ending in Australia, covering crypto and commodities along the way. 2024 ended up as an eventful year for markets, as many stock indices recorded sizeable double-digit gains, though with significant volatility. But the start of 2025 could well mark a shift in … Continue reading "Uncertainty Rules As Markets Face A Wicked New Year!"
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply, falling at one point to a multi-year low of 61.88 US cents — a level not seen since October, 2022. A weak Australian dollar, which was changing hands at US62.20¢ on Thursday, makes imported products such as oil more expensive, adding to domestic inflation. Whilst a weak Aussie can … Continue reading "The Low Road For The Aussie Has Real Consequences For You!"
Well, there should be no surprise that home price growth is easing, and indeed prices are falling in some places up to the end of the year, as a combination of higher for longer interest rates, broader financial pressures, reduced borrowing capacity and even easing migration are all taking their toll. This despite assurances from … Continue reading "Australian Home Prices Teeter On A High Cliff…"
In this episode we review our most viewed shows from 2024, and identify the key issues and themes which got the most attention. Interestingly there are clear connections and observations… Let me know in the comments what your favorite shows were, and what you would like me to cover this coming year. Thanks to all … Continue reading "DFA: Looking Back And Looking Forwards…"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds, Damien Klassen. We looked back over the past year and discussed some of the key issues ahead. Will US exceptionalism continue? Will the AUD continue to fall against a strong USD? Should we be chasing … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Market Review 2024; And The Year Ahead: With Damien Klassen"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Edwin Almeida, our property insider as we review 2024 and look forward to 2025 and Edwin’s predictions for the new year Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s LIVE Monday Evening Property Rant: Replay"
In the second part of our Twix-Mass series, we look at the use and future of cash. To the surprise of many, banks included, the use of cash is on the rise, and now the Government is looking to secure its use and availability across the country. Assistant Treasurer Stephen Jones told ABC News “We … Continue reading "Is Cash To Reign Supreme in 2025?"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. And as this is the last full trading week, we will also look back at the last year. There is a nice meme going round, highlighting that … Continue reading "From Here, Where For The Markets?"
The space between Christmas and New Year is often a nothing burger, as we wait for the old year to finally go and new one to arrive. But this offers the perfect opportunity to check over your finances and ensure you have a clear plan in mind for next year. Over the next few days, … Continue reading "Get Your Finances Sorted This Twix-Mass!"
Boxing day highlighted the weird financial pressures lurking across Australia at the moment, as shoppers flooded stores to make the most of Boxing Day bargains. More and more shoppers were holding out for a bargain during the festive season as cost-of-living pressures continued to weigh households down. Perhaps It’s really because of cost-of-living challenges that … Continue reading "Shop ‘Til You Drop; Or Not: This Christmas!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Tony Locantro, as we review 2024, and look ahead towards 2025. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades. His understanding of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Tony Locantro’s Christmas Box"
As we run down to Christmas, we look at the state of play of property with our insider Edwin Almeida, touch on the question population growth and the need for real building surveys, and also remind people to “Think Asbestos” through the DIY season as we commemorate Gill’s death on this day 3 years ago. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Migration into Australia remains too high, and has directly and indirectly caused a massive rise in homelessness. Tent cities have sprung up, and some councils are now trying to clear them moving homeless people on. So today we look at what caused the problem, and what this means for the homeless. One academic describes the … Continue reading "Destroying Tent Cities Does Not Solve The Housing Problem!"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Recently, we saw markets charging higher, as many markets touched all-time highs again on the expectation of more rate cuts, but that changed this week, following another … Continue reading "Is It Hard Hat Time As The Santa Rally Turns Decidedly Frosty?"
I caught up with journalist Tarric Brooker for a look back over the year, and what might be up in 2025, including of course some great slides. We dwelt on housing and Government policy, the structure of the economy and what might be underlying the dire numbers reported recently. How much is spin and how … Continue reading "A Bet On Australia Is Bet On Government: With Tarric Brooker"
There was always going to be a question about the Fed’s December decision, would they react to the latest data, or position ahead of the Trump 2.0 policy set coming in 2025? Well, it looks like both were in the minds of the Monetary Policy committee, as Federal Reserve officials lowered their benchmark interest rate … Continue reading "Dollar Taking No Prisoners As Fed’s Hawkish Cut Spooked Markets!"
Total budget revenue is cumulatively higher by about $380 billion over five years compared with Treasury’s forecasts on the eve of the May 2022 election. Yet, at a time when revenue is booming and the economy is operating around full capacity, the deficit in underlying terms is forecast to be $26.9 billion (1 per cent … Continue reading "Wanted Adults In The Budget Room, As Deficits Roar And Games Are Played!"
This is an edit of a live discussion with Economist Leith van Onselen, Co-founder of MacroBusiness, and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We will pick apart the latest housing disasters, and why things have gone so pear shaped, but also what could be done (with political will) to sort this mess out! It is NOT … Continue reading "DFA Live HD Replay: The Great Housing Bust, And What Can Be Done About It: With Leith van Onselen"
As we count down to the end of the year, Edwin and I discuss the idea that Government wants to keep property prices ever higher, look at a disaster of a building survey as a warning for those who trust vendor surveys, and spot areas where prices are well down from 2017 levels, despite all … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
We deep dive on the thorny question of household finances and the proportion of disposable income going to pay the rent or mortgage, using data from our core market model. We find that conditions are quite severe in many parts of the country, but it is not uniformly spread. Which households are most under the … Continue reading "Household Money Worries? – You Are Not Alone!"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. MSCI’s global equity gauge fell on Friday while bond yields climbed as investors waited for clues about the future path for interest rates and Europe’s STOXX 600 … Continue reading "Markets: Are You Confused Yet? You Should Be!"
Core Logic released their annual Best of the Best report, and they say that while at first glance, the Australian housing market was surprisingly resilient through 2024, it can be characterised as having stronger conditions ‘out of the gate’, which slowed over the course of the year under waning demand, rising levels of advertised supply … Continue reading "Property Winners And Losers…"
Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in November as the nation’s golden streak of hiring gains extended, underscoring the resilience of the labor market to elevated interest rates and prompting traders to pare back bets of a February cut. As Alex Joiner from IFM noted “Solid employment Growth in November and a tick down in the … Continue reading "Early Rate Cut Hopes Dashed By Strong Australian Jobs Data!"
You can smell an election coming soon as Australia’s housing minister has declared that the Anthony Albanese government doesn’t want house prices to fall – despite them being very unaffordable for the young. Clare O’Neil made the admission on Triple J’s youth-orientated Hack program recently, when she was hit with a barrage of questions about … Continue reading "Revealed: The Politics Of Housing And The Intergenerational War!"
The Reserve Bank left its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday in a widely anticipated decision, marking more than a year at that level. The rate-setting board said “some of the upside risks to inflation appear to have eased” and scrapped a longstanding line that it wasn’t ruling anything in or out on policy.Australia’s central … Continue reading "The RBA’s “Wild Ride”, While Rates Remain On Hold…"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Veronica Morgan, as we dive into a bunch of questions from our Audience. Is the market really turning? How do you avoid buying a dog of a place? Are there still good deals to be done? Veronica Morgan is co-founder of Home Buyer Academy, co-host … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Your Property Questions Answered: With Veronica Morgan"
It has been another eventful week, for property insider Edwin Almeida and I to get our teeth into. What is the true state of the property market? How stuffed in Australia and Australians? And does crypto offer an alternative? Find out in our latest edition. Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Markets are expecting the FED to cut rates again at its December meeting, after the US economy added 227,000 jobs last month, mostly in line with expectations, and the three-month average came in at 173,000, confirming expectations that the labour market is cooling, at a moderate pace. The Australian sharemarket dropped on Friday in a … Continue reading "Santa Rally In Full Swing; For Now!"
This is an update on the Misinformation and Disinformation Bill currently in progress in the Australian parliament. It looks like the Senate will not pass the legislation which did however pass the lower house. So in this show we look at the latest evidence given in the hearings last week, and more recent statements from … Continue reading "Has The Bad MAD Misinformation Bill Hit The Buffers?"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe, and Asia, and end in Australia covering crypto and commodities on the way. My earlier call of enhanced market volatility proved correct, as a gauge of global stocks took its biggest weekly drop in two months driven by market euphoria … Continue reading "Forget Seeking Certainty: Suddenly, The Fed’s Urge to Cut Rates Evaporates!"
Following my live show on Tuesday I had a number of requests for mapping of the Rental Stress story across the country. So in this show we look at the distribution of rental stress both in count and percentage terms, based on DFA modelling and surveys. Live show was here: https://youtu.be/c8rTWEEw2KU http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the … Continue reading "The Rental Stress Pips Are Squeaking!"
Can the Australian economy be weak, and strong at the same time? Or which is it? This is an important question because the answer will determine the future policy direction of interest rates, and the well-being of ordinary Australians. So I am going to do a deep dive on this in the light of the … Continue reading "The Australian Economy; Its Messy And Complicated!"
One of the themes which comes through in our household surveys is that many people are under financial pressure, but are holding out for interest rate cuts in the short term. But America’s election outcome continues to reverberate across the globe. Bond markets continue to push higher with the US 2 and 10 year moving … Continue reading "Prepare For A Higher Rate Plateau!"
I caught up with Troy Harris a Crypto Advocate and Author of “CRYPTO NEW RICH” in the week Bitcoin rose above US$80,000 after the recent Trump victory. We explored what is going on here, and what factors could drive the price of Bitcoin even higher. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Are property markets morphing into buyers markets and vendor dropping their asking prices? Well, according to recent news corp articles, home seekers are bagging properties for an average of up to 15% below the list price in pockets of Sydney. Vendor discounting tends to reflect price growth recorded a few months ago, rather than signalling … Continue reading "Don’t Be Misled By Vendor Discounting!"
Compared to the weak RBA rate of 4.35%, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, lifted earlier and higher, and has begun to cut rates as the New Zealand economy slipped into recession. Next week we will get the next RBNZ rate decision, and a new survey has show that although New Zealand business sentiment is … Continue reading "Will Kiwis Say “Hello” To Deflation?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. Given the strength of the markets in recent days, and the China stimulus programme, what’s ahead, and how should you position given the level of volatility and uncertainty out there? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
The latest news from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest moves from Government (including erecting statues!!) news from China, and the latest data. Things continue to show a gap between strategy and reality, as negative gearing questions emerge again! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
This is an edited version of a post John Adams and I made on In The Interests Of The People, doing a deep dive into the arguments around the proposed Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by … Continue reading "There Is NO BASIS For This “MAD” Legislation!"
This is our weekly market update where we review the market action starting in the US, then Europe, Asia, and Australia and also cover commodities and crypto along the way. This is a data packed segment, so be warned! This week markets drove higher, pretty much across the board, thanks to the fall out from … Continue reading "Stars Align To Create A Bubble Dream; But Is A Nightmare Around The Corner?"
This is an edited version of a recent live show I did on Adam Stokes channel relating to the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate referred the provisions of the bill to the Environment and Communications Legislation Committee for report by 25 November 2024. You have JUST … Continue reading "Save Free Speech: Fight The Disinformation Bill!"
This is a good news story, as I discuss with progress being made on the move towards the creation of a Postal Bank in Australia, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/campaigns/public-post-office-bank But we need to keep the pressure on to ensure that the National Bank is developed in the way to benefit … Continue reading "Is The Postal Bank Winning? With Robbie Barwick…"
In the past 48 hours we had a no change interest rate decision from the RBA and monthly headline inflation which dropped within the target 2-3% target range from the partial services heavy monthly data release, thanks to temporary Government handout to ease costs of living so window dressing the results, but which the RBA … Continue reading "Window Dressing: The Ozzie Inflation Battle Raises Burning Questions For Us All!"
In this special show I am joined by Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, and Economist John Adams, from In The Interests Of The People to underscore the need for people to make their views known to Government on the Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 which on the 19 September 2024, the Senate … Continue reading "Seven Days To Stop 1984!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with our property insider Edwin Almeida as we discuss things that go wrong in buildings and yet issues which are often missed. Using our Building Surveyor skills we will explore some specific cases, and also draw out some important lessons for those engaging with property. Original … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: When Buildings Go Bad: With Edwin Almeida"
If you want a case study of how data is used to mislead, rather than help define a problem, then look no further than the recent stoush surrounding foreign students and their impact on the housing crisis. We have as you know seen a massive upswing in migration to Australia, after the drought through the … Continue reading "Lies, Statistics And The “Facts” About Foreign Students And Rents…"
This is our weekly market update, designed to help me digest what is happening, starting in the US, probably the most consequential market in the world, then we move to Europe, Asia and end in Australia and also cover commodities and crypto on the way. On Friday shares on Wall Street were mixed in a … Continue reading "Damp Squib Of A Rate Cut Has Markets On Watch!"
The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) House Price Index (HPI) reported a 16.7% decline nationally from the market peak reached in 2021. This has taken real inflation-adjusted house prices back to their pre-pandemic level at the start of 2020. But in August the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate … Continue reading "Is The Kiwi Property Market On The Turn?"
Home builders are falling off the perch at an alarming rate with high rates of insolvency among construction firms, many of whom were homebuilders, to 3,000 in the past year. While many of these were small firms, we are still seeing a spate of larger firms going under. We are encountering more people in our … Continue reading "Broken City!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, as we kick over the current issues facing markets and households. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Tony Locantro: In A Time Of Financial Crisis"
In this weeks edition property insider Edwin Almeida looks around Albo’s investment property which is on the market to highlight some important issues around building inspections, plus we discuss the Misinformation Bill while we still can and also look at a horrid case of underquoting. Truth is, whether you are a vendor looking to sell, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! – An Albo Special!"
One of the factors I see in my household surveys is wealth transfer from one generation to another, stoked by the paper wealth created by the massive upswing in home prices. We see more first-time buyers being assisted by the Bank of Grandparents, alongside the Bank of Mum and Dad. This means there is a … Continue reading "Look Who’s Wealthy Now!"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, whilst covering commodities and crypto on the way. I do this to keep track of what is going on in today’s complex markets, so expect lots of data not superficial waffle. You have been … Continue reading "Will The FED Stoke Inflation And Drive An Even Greater Wedge Between Rich And Poor?"
The mythology that home prices always rise has been busted before, because the high-level indices which are the fixation of the media, ignore the real variations, at a granular level. The latest data from Corelogic shows that at the aggregate level there were small falls in Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, and Melbourne, while there were stronger … Continue reading "Listen, You Can Hear Home Prices Falling!"
Well now we have next bit of the controlling infrastructure being put in place to control free speech, and perhaps even what we think! The Orwellian nightmare with severe consequences for freedom of expression is being rolled out for all to see. I have already talked about the dystopian future being drip fed on society, … Continue reading "Controlled! Shut Up, Say Nothing: Obey…."
On Wednesday the BLS released the latest US inflation data and top line, it appears the post-pandemic spike in U.S. inflation eased further last month as year-over-year price increases reached a three-year low. However, while the spike in goods, food and energy prices is over, services inflation remains uncomfortably high. Core prices rose 3.2% in … Continue reading "Latest CPI Data Says Services Inflation Is Still Riling!"
Housing affordability is one of the biggest pressures facing the Australian community and the Government has committed to building 1.2 million new, quote well-located homes across Australia by mid-2029. This is all but impossible, on current trends, and of course housing pressures have been exacerbated by super-high migration. The NSW Productivity and Equality Commission just … Continue reading "Solve The Housing Crisis By Building Smaller, Darker, Higher Homes?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the findings from our surveys and models as we look at the latest in mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress across Australia. We will have our post code engine online so you can suggest specific post codes to examine. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Stressed: A Deep Dive Into The Latest Household Data"
More this week from our property insider Edwin Almedia, on the dynamics of the markets, as listing rise and interest rates stay high. We also look at the battle between the RBA and The Treasurer, and at the Grenfell Tower UK report which really spotlights the severe defects across the building system and which is … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way, and a reminder, this show is data rich, not shouty stupidity like so much on socials these days, and the purpose is to help me understand what … Continue reading "Markets Caught Saying Hello To A Hard Landing!"
In my latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, we look back at the recent stoush between the Reserve Bank and the Government as inflation remains sticky, and the Treasurer says Government spending is helping to bring inflation down. Plus, thanks to Tarric’s excellent slides we parse the latest data and delve into the mechanics … Continue reading "The Australian Monetary Policy Civil War: With Tarric Brooker"
In this show we look at the latest property data from New Zealand, from the REINZ and CoreLogic. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) released its July 2024 data at the end of August. The national median price decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, from $770,000 to $753,000, and decreased by the same amount month-on-month. … Continue reading "Kiwis See Average 16% Home Price Falls From Peak, But Hopium Ahead!"
I have been talking about the absolutely stupid Government policy of gas supply, as a few big multinational companies continue to pump and export gas owned by Australia abroad, using energy from said gas sufficient to support Australian need, in order to liquidity it for export. The stupidity stems from the lack of an east … Continue reading "Worst Ever Great Idea: Australia IMPORTS LNG!"
Well now we know. Australia’s annual GDP growth rate fell to its lowest level since December 1991, outside of the pandemic as consumers hunkered down in the face of elevated borrowing costs and stubbornly sticky inflation. Annual GDP growth has slowed markedly from a decade average of 2.4%, partly due to the RBA’s rate tightening … Continue reading "Smashed!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments At Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we review the past volatile month and talk about what is ahead for the markets. Original show here with chat: https://youtube.com/live/SSvtwrLRNEw http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
In this weeks show we highlight the link between Government policy and home prices (rather than the economic theory of supply and demand), touch on the risks of renovations, as costs spiral and look at the latest listing and price trends as we move in the spring selling season. Edwin Almedia, our property insider says, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Markets have reduced their expectation of a cash rate cut this year following key data at home and in the US suggests both economies were still on solid footing despite elevated inflation and decade-high borrowing costs. Now Australian money markets are no longer fully pricing in an interest rate cut this year, implying an 85 … Continue reading "Why Rate Cuts Won’t Come Soon To Australia…"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia. And let me say this is a calm and methodical summary, not a shouty content light thing which might be all the rage on some social media, but which for me does not cut … Continue reading "Markets Gain Ground Despite Choppy Trading!"
I caught up with Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, who this past week announced a switch to become an independent, with a view to Putting People First”. In this show we discuss the state of politics, policies which could make a real difference to people, and the need to right-size the political machine. A must watch! … Continue reading "Putting People First: With Senator Gerard Rennick"
The RBA has said that the battle to control inflation is not yet over, and the latest data from the ABS, the monthly CPI report for July came out today and confirms that inflation does remain a problem. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 3.5 per cent in the 12 months to July … Continue reading "The Latest Inflation News Says We Still Have A Problem!"
Those following the DFA channel will know we have been tracking the rise of mortgage stress in recent times, as the higher interest rates and prices bite while real incomes stalled. I have been listing some of those post codes, like Liverpool in Sydney or DonnyBrook in Melbourrne, where we have been measuring cash flow … Continue reading "The Mortgage Stress Pigeons Coming Home To Roost!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Crypto evangelist Adam Stokes as we examine the recent changes in the market, as gold rockets to new highs, even as rate cuts and QT is under way. Where is the real value of money, and how does Crypto play into this? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Asset Inflation, Rate Cuts & Crypto: With Adam Stokes"
In this weeks show with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, we look at the latest data and reports on the property market. How far is the lag and what can we tell about what is happening on the ground? The vibes are showing higher listings, but not necessarily good quality ones and the rest, while … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Property Rant!"
Whilst data should be immutable, interpretation of said data can be tweaked and turned, to spin a particular story. As we have seen in the press this past week. Take, for example auction clearance results. The preliminary auction clearance rates for this past weekend in the biggest markets of Sydney and Melbourne came out tracking … Continue reading "Is Property Springing Into Life, Or Catching A Cold?"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, while covering commodities and crypto on the way. Weird though it seems, a short speech given by an elderly gentleman in a valley and wilderness recreation area in western Wyoming had the markets on … Continue reading "Rate Cuts Incoming: But Be Careful What You Wish For!"
I caught up with author Bruce Francis Schaafsma who has just published a thought provoking book which questions some fundamental assumptions about economics, with profound and far-reaching consequences. While we see the rich getting richer whilst others struggle, what if there are enough resources in the world, and the real issue we face is a … Continue reading "The Real Truth About The Wealth Of Nations: With Bruce Francis Schaafsma"
In this show we look at the technocrats at the Bank for International Settlements, how they came to hold so much power, and what that means for us today. Timely, given the Jackson Hole bankers “love-in” happening this week. This builds on my earlier show “Who Killed The Australian Dream?” recorded with Elisa Barwick from … Continue reading "Austerity By Design: Who’s Taking The BIS? With Elisa Barwick"
You may recall that I often say, there is not one property market but many micro markets that behave in quite different ways. But at the capital city level, Melbourne appears to be in some strife in terms of price falls at the moment. Overall, it certainly looks like the combined impact of state policy, … Continue reading "Is Melbourne The Property Problem Child?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with the founder of Spachus, the property data portal, a true independent in the Australian real estate market, which provides unbiased and transparent data across the country. Their data is updated every 24 hours so you can get the latest trends and insights first! Lets see … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Deep Insights Into The Property Market With Spachus"
In tonight’s show our Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I chuckle at the “innovative” policy for first home buyers being mooted in the USA (no, these do not work: see Australia!), look at price growth in Perth, and a horror story in Logan City, Brisbane, as well as the normal deep dive in the numbers. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
This is the final party of my July Financial Pressure analysis, where we answer specific questions from our audience. First part here: https://youtu.be/eRM8alMOi4gSecond part here: https://youtu.be/sCW1_91LDQo http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious … Continue reading "You Asked, We Answered: More Households In Financial Stress!"
This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, while also covering the action in commodities and crypto along the ways. My analogy of traders on a boat, running from one side of the deck to the other still holds, as the recession … Continue reading "Return To Plan A (For Now) Says The Market As New Data Swings!"
On Friday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock and her new look team were questioned by the House Economics Committee in Canberra for most of the morning. And I watched it all, so you don’t have to! There was very little new at one level, because the bank had recently released its statement on monetary policy and … Continue reading "The Narrow Path Is Beset With Uncertainty!"
You have to ask the question: are the ABS stats on employment, which were released today, meaningful? Because according to the data for July, a record share of Australians are either working or looking for a job and about 58,000 people found work last month. The increase in employment was not enough to stop the … Continue reading "Australian Employment Booms Even As Unemployment Rises!"
Interesting question, who you believe more the markets, or Central Bankers. Of course those in Central Bank land, will claim data dependence, and moving targets, and as RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned recently it’s a risk to listen to “false prophets” on interest rates; and yet after several false dawns, New Zealand’s central bank … Continue reading "Kiwis Get A Rate Cut As The Reserve Bank Pivots!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness as we pick apart the latest economic myths across property and the economy. Original show is here: https://youtube.com/live/bT-hxYrjJ1A http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, go across to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto on the way. And which ever way you look at the past week, it was a volatile perfect storm driven by weird US jobs data, Middle East tensions, and … Continue reading "After The Perfect Storm, How’s The Market Wreckage, And What’s Next?"
Demand for a place to live remains very high, driven by population growth from mega-high migration and low but perhaps improving vacancy rates in the rental sector. We know that roughly one third of households own their own property, outright, one third own with a mortgage, and one third rent. Those in the last two … Continue reading "The Sham Build To Rent Property Solution…"
In today’s deep dive, Elisa Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party shares her research on why housing has become so expensive, and what can be done about it. But this is not the normal discussion of high migration or currently government policy, rather it sheets the cause to a chapter of history dominated by neo-liberalists, … Continue reading "Who Killed The Australian Dream? With Elisa Barwick"
The Reserve Bank held its cash rate at 4.35% for a sixth straight meeting on Tuesday and lifted its forecasts for inflation and economic growth. In her press conference after the policy decision, Governor Michele Bullock said there’s still a risk that inflation will take too long to return to target and said it’s too … Continue reading "When Things Don’t Add Up At The RBA"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we dive into the current market chaos and explore what is really going on. Is this a replay of the DotCom bubble, or a minor glitch, and where will the markets … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
This weeks rant got a bit controversial as Edwin and I dissected a couple of recent bathroom renovations, considered the root causes of social unrest, and discussed whether housing should be a human right. We also looked at the latest numbers and recent media reports, ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Today we look at the real impact of the recent Government support initiatives for households, as we update our models to the end of July, and adjust the tax bands, income changes, extra cost of living support and other initiates from both state and federal governments. Actually, while there were some improvements, not all households … Continue reading "Calibrating The Real Impact Of Households’ “Financial Relief”…"
We are now deep into uncertain territory, as the thesis “this time is different” is being tested by reality, and for now, reality is winning. Investors are running from one side of the boat (hopefully not the titanic), to the other, as a fear of recession iceberg looms for investors still leveraged to the gunnels … Continue reading "Is This Time Really Different, As Equities Fall Hard?"
As expected, the Bank of England finally cut the base rate by 0.25%, to 5%, the first cut in four and a half years though it was a finely balanced decision which reflected increased confidence that the worst inflation shock in decades, was easing. The Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, said inflationary pressures had … Continue reading "Finally A Rate Cut, Though Weirdly Into A Growing Economy!"
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the cash rate unchanged yesterday, and it’s weird that the biggest financial news from Wednesday is that they did nothing at all, and did not committing to doing anything in future, despite the call from some to cut rates in a pre-emptive intervention to head off a … Continue reading "The FED Does Nothing (Again…!)"
The ABS released their latest on CPI, with the quarterly results to June, and the monthly. The data of course feeds into the RBA rate decision next Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0 per cent in the June 2024 quarter and 3.8 per cent annually. So real prices are still rising. Underlying inflation … Continue reading "Is The Door Closed On A Further Rate Rise In Australia?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party, as we explore the current status of the war on cash, regional banking, post offices, and the need to revolutionize the financial system for ordinary people. http://www.martinnorth.com/
As the wackiness continues, property insider Edwin Almeida and I pick over the bones of the market, as expectation of rate hikes harden, people are starting to talk about weakness in some places, while the media continue to spruik as though their lives depended on it. We also look at fascinating insights from Chinese students … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
If you chose to look below the hood, you can see some changing dynamics across the property market which may indicate the recent rises in some areas are easing, to the point where the boss of the country’s biggest real estate group has cautioned that vendors may need to rein in their price expectations this … Continue reading "Watch For Lemons: Are Cracks Appearing In The “Unstoppable” Property Market?"
This is our latest weekly market update, where we check in the markets across the USA, Europe Asia and Australia and also cover commodities and crypto. This past week once again was full of swings, up earlier, then down, and then an upswing on Friday, though still to end lower once again across the week. … Continue reading "Remember Folks, Buy Low, Sell High – Especially Now!"
Another outing with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we pick over the latest data, with a focus on what is happening in the real economy. We also discuss the real race many are running in terms of no real income growth, and the political and economic implications of this ahead. You can find Tarric’s charts at … Continue reading "Welcome To The Alternative Olympics: With Tarric Brooker"
Markets Are Clearly Confused. The S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday, suffering its biggest one day lost since 2022 as tech stocks nosedived following underwhelming second-quarter earnings from heavyweights Alphabet and Tesla. After the recent political machinations in America, with Trump in the ascendency, followed by the switch from Biden to Harris, the Trump … Continue reading "Buckle Up; The Markets Just Got Interesting!"
A new report from the Finance Industry Peak Body, UK Finance, which represents more than 300 firms in the UK, reveals that cash remained the second most popular payment method, after debit cards – with an estimated three million people still relying on it. Their research suggests 1.5 million mainly used cash in 2023, up … Continue reading "Cash Transaction Usage On The Rise (Despite The Banks’ Best Worse Efforts)!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Dr Cameron Murray, Independent Economist over at Fresh Economic Thinking. Fresh Economic Thinking is Australia’s newest think-tank, with independent and insightful takes on major economic debates. Cameron thinks economics could be much better than it is so he often writes very fine technical critiques of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Is Super Really Super, And Other Economic Questions: With Cameron Murray"
In our latest show we pull apart some of the recent property spruiking, look at the latest numbers and deep dive into the gap between the “speak” from policy makers and the “reality” of what they do. As a result we underscore the need to go local, and not be misled by high-level waffle! http://www.martinnorth.com/ … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Well, last week we got a glimpse of the vulnerability of global IT systems, including payment systems, the latest and perhaps most significant of a chapter of accidents, ranging from banks systems going down, through to disruption from floods and fire, when only physical payments in cash were accepted. US cyber-security firm CrowdStrike said it … Continue reading "Cash: Wake Up, Its The Antidote To Digital Dystopia!"
In our latest weekly market update, we start in the US, move to Europe and Asia and end in Australia as well as covering commodities and crypto, as a way of digesting all that has happened this past few days. This past week, was again packed full of contradictory signals, with World stock indexes falling … Continue reading "Just The Start As Markets Are Rocked By Rotations, BSOD, Politics, And More…"
The latest RBA bulletin, just released, contained a couple of significant articles relating to mortgage arrears and serviceability. The first, “Recent Drivers of Housing Loan Arrears” shows that Housing loan arrears rates have increased from low levels since late 2022, with banks expecting them to rise a bit further from here. High LVR and DTI … Continue reading "How Do We Know That Mortgage Arrears Are Now Rising In Australia?"
The ABS released the latest employment data today, and in response, investors have bumped up their bets on an August interest rate rise after the jobs market recorded another month of strong employment gains in June. As always there is a degree of numberwanging here, and the numbers are being flattered by the still strong … Continue reading "The Narrow Path Says Rate Hikes Are Coming In Australia!"
My Saturday show highlighted the start of the rotation from tech stocks to the broader market, as exemplified in the trends in the NASDAQ and the Small Caps 2000. This trend has continued, and on Wednesday it went into overdrive as the world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on … Continue reading "Rotation To A “Tech-Wreck” Replay?"
Households will see Inflation around for much longer than expected and while the pressure on households continue to build, so does distrust across the economy in Australia, according to data from the IMF and a special Roy Morgan End of Financial Year webinar. Despite the better-than-expected US inflation figures, the International Monetary Fund in its … Continue reading "Corporates Gouge, While IMF Warns The Inflation Squeeze Will Be On For Longer Than Expected!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Perth. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades. His understanding of market psychology has ensured valued … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Tony Locantro: The Everywhere And Everything Bubble!"
A big show this week, as Edwin and I consider how international events impact local markets, distressed sales especially from investors rise, and more builders collapse as markets might be taking a breather. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
Latest data from REINZ shows further momentum falls across property sales and prices in New Zealand, as the higher rates continue to squeeze households and dampen the markets. Prices are now 16% below past peaks. https://www.reinz.co.nz/Web/Web/News/News-Articles/Market-updates/REINZ-June-2024-data-property-market-a-little-chilly-amid-economic-challenges.aspx http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Back in 2021 the Census revealed a shocking “one million homes were unoccupied”. But now we have a new survey from economic research organisation Prosper Australia, looking at empty homes in Melbourne from 2019 to 2023. The report SPECULATIVE VACANCIES 11 makes the point that while around 30,000 people in Victoria have no home, it … Continue reading "The Shame Of Vacant Property In A Time Of Homelessness!"
This is our weekly market update, starting in the US, then Europe, Asia and Australia and covering commodities and crypto. This week, hopes of US interest rate cuts before the end of the year rose after data this week showed that inflation was cooling faster than expected, has muddied the waters, though all three US … Continue reading "Markets Reach For The Stars, Even As A Nascent Turn Is Under Way!"
Here we go again, as inflation, which had been falling last year, but rising in the first part of 2024, now appears to be easing again, so markets who at the start of the year saw 6 rate cuts, then trimmed them to none, and possibly a rise, are now again betting on multiple cuts … Continue reading "US Markets Swing Towards Rate Cuts As Inflation Eases…"
Continuing my occasional series with George, where we go deep into tin-foil hat territory, we chat about democracy, and power, and how corporations interact with Governments and international non-governmental organisations, like the UN and WEF, and how this impinges on our lives. Who are politicians working for really? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World … Continue reading "Down The Rabbit Hole (Once Again): A World Corporate Monopoly!"
When I landed in Australia in 1995, I was immediately struck by the concept of a “fair-go” being right at the heart of the Australian psyche. But more recently it appeared to me that this was becoming something of a myth, as inequality and poverty started to expand and impinge on people who previously were … Continue reading "Is The Australian “Fair Go” Broken?"
This is my quick economic summary for July, where I look over the recent data highlight some of the key questions ahead. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
If you talk to ordinary Kiwi’s across New Zealand, its pretty clear things are not looking good. We already highlighted the easing of home prices and businesses are closing in many centres, take for example, downtown Wellington, New Zealand’s capital city, where dozens of empty shops speak to an economic gloom that’s pervading the entire … Continue reading "Kiwi’s Feeling Recessionary, While The Central Bank Turns A Bit Dovish!"
This an edit of a live discussion with Sydney based Buyers Agents Veronica Morgan as we explore the tricks and traps of property purchase. Veronica believes that it’s easier to lose money in real estate than most people realise and it’s her mission to guide people to make better property decisions! Veronica Morgan is the … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Veronica Morgan: How To Play The Property Game (Without Falling Off!)"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, while covering the main points in commodities and crypto along the way. This past week has been a doozy, with US markets still clawing higher on increased rate cut expectations, as the latest employment … Continue reading "Markets Higher As They Hang On For Rate Cuts (Again), While Voters Vote Against Incumbency."
Trying to get a handle on what is going on in the economy is not easy, as I discussed recently in my show about retail turnover, which when adjusted for inflation is falling, and falling hard. So no great surprise to see that the latest data from the ABS on Household spending growth showed it … Continue reading "Burnout: Households Shut Their Wallets As Living Costs Rise!"
Data from CoreLogic shows the “dead cat bounce” in New Zealand home prices, driven by the higher for longer interest rates, and significant pressure to refinance, Recent changes from 1st July will not have much impact on the market, while the Reserve Bank won’t be cutting rates for some time. Demand will remain weak, as … Continue reading "Kiwi Home Prices Continue To Drift Lower…"
The New Deputy Governor at the RBA said last week, that when it comes to a rate decision, they look at many different measures, apart from the recently released monthly series which showed a lift to 4% last time around in May. So now, in May, so before any tax cuts or other Government help … Continue reading "More Signals For An OZ Rate Hike Incoming?"
We update our modelling to the end of June 2024, examining the latest in mortgage, rental, investment and financial stress across Australia. While the upcoming tax cuts and energy support may assist, the truth is about half of households are under sever pressure, and with rates expected to be higher for longer, its time for … Continue reading "More Household Trouble In The Land Of OZ!"
This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, and we also cover commodities and crypto, as I get my ideas straight for the next leg of the year. In essence, AI has driven markets hard, especially in the US, but market breadth … Continue reading "From Here, Where? As Uncertainty Haunts The Markets!"
The ABS released their latest data on Household Wealth in the March 2024 quarter today. They say in aggregate terms, household wealth was up 2.7% in the March quarter, or $431 billion dollars. The value of assets is skyrocketing at the moment, but incomes are hardly growing. So if you’re lucky enough to own any … Continue reading "The Serious Money Is In Housing… But…"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of the Australian Property Market, with Sydney based Mortgage Broker, Chris Bates from Flint. Chris started as a Financial Adviser back in 2007 and sold his Financial Advice business in 2020. Over the past 9 years, Chris has grown into one of Australia’s … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Property Snakes And Ladders: With Chris Bates"
In this week’s Rant we look at forecasts for future property prices (and who makes them), some of the recent changes in the dynamics of property listings, and a warning for those considering a new kitchen. We also consider the latest stats on foreign property transactions. http://www.martinnorth.com/ https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
High migration is putting pressure on home prices and rents, and lifting the demand for more infrastructure, and diluting the GDP per capital (share of wealth generated in the country across an ever-increasing population, 84% of which growth came from migration. So this is a big political hot potato. Many are calling for a cut … Continue reading "More Migration Madness!"
This is weekly market update, starting in the US, Europe, then Asia and then the US, as I get my thoughts organised! This week, punctuated by a Wednesday US holiday, saw markets taking a breather following recent volatility and record highs. The Nasdaq had hit record highs on Thursday, boosted by strong gains in tech, … Continue reading "Markets Calm Before The Storm, As The AI Wave Wains?"
As I discussed on my live show, on Tuesday night with Leith van Onselen, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but there were signs of a more hawkish tone from the meeting notes, and the subsequent press conference (which I might add is becoming less useful each time thanks to weak … Continue reading "Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?"
Struggling homeowners are increasingly hitting the pricey reset button on their loans in the hope of dragging down their monthly repayments.It’s adding years to the length of their loans and potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest costs. A recent Finder.com.au survey revealed one in eight mortgage holders polled revealed they had extended their … Continue reading "One In Eight Mortgage Borrowers “Extend And Pretend”!"
Last week, yet another building and construction firm hit the wall, collapsing into liquidation owing $5.7m straddling two different states and territories, leading to a “domino effect” impacting 130 projects and 80 staff members. This is part of the continuing litany of failure, as data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC) shows that … Continue reading "Construction Firms Failures Hit A New Peak: There Will Be Consequences…"
I caught up with accountant, Allan Mason, who was Kerry Packer’s accountant and is the best-selling author of “Tax Secrets of The Rich”. As the tax year looms, its important to take charge of your tax affairs, and we discuss some of the main issues to consider. https://nla.gov.au/nla.obj-3019211844/view Note this is not specific tax advice, … Continue reading "It’s A Taxing Time, But Make Sure You Do It Right! : With Allan Mason"
In this weeks show Edwin and I look at the latest in political interventions to “help” the property market, consider the impact of more Chinese money coming into Australian property, and the impact of the Bank Of Mum and Dad. Plus, our normal updates on listings, and Edwin’s latest Tip Of The Week. http://www.martinnorth.com/ https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
It’s raining “announcables” at the moment, with interesting developments this past week on the housing and finance front as city, state and federal Governments continue to poke at the broken system. Schemes include, government buying off the plan to give construction firms a leg up, cheap housing for essential workers, changes to lending rules, higher … Continue reading "Hello, I’m From The Government, And I’m Here To Help You! (Honest!!?)"
This is our weekly market update, is the best way I have found to organize my thoughts for the week and to track what’s going on. We start in the US, crosses to Europe, then Asia, and Australia, and we also cover commodities and crypto. In the US, the Nasdaq eked out a fifth straight … Continue reading "The Investor’s Dilemma: Hang In Or Jump Out?"
In this show we will look at some of the recent data relating to the New Zealand economy, which is sitting in a high interest rate, recessionary condition, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand wrangles inflation towards its targets. We saw a significant rise in people leaving the country, with New Zealand Citizens voting … Continue reading "The Kiwi Economy On A Knife Edge… As More Leave!"
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.0 per cent in May, according to data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). With employment rising by around 40,000 people and the number of unemployed falling by 9,000 people, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0 per cent. In April we … Continue reading "Let’s Play Some More Numberwang!"
Interesting ABC article, which shows Real Estate Agents are winning, thanks to higher prices. But others are losers, period. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-12/house-price-growth-to-continue-corelogic-analysts/103964952 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants.
This is an edited version of live discussion, with Professor Steve Keen. Steve Keen is an Australian economist and author, highly critical of neoclassical economics as inconsistent, unscientific, and empirically unsupported. Mainstream economist have in effect damaged society and the planet because of what they don’t know!. There are better ways to think about what’s … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Steve Keen: Why Real World Economics Matters!"
After a week away, we’re back with another episode as we look at the stupidity in the property sector, as some are piling into the investor sector, while others are trapped due to the higher interest rates, and nowhere to go. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
A thought provoking discussion with Tony Locantro, and his life-style changes. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Data from my surveys, as discussed this past week, along with other market data shows we have a very divided housing market, with on one side of the ledger many households under significant pressure and begin forced to sell up, while watching their property values slide, while on the other side property investors are still … Continue reading "The Housing Market Sheep And Goats (Which Are You?)"
In this week’s market review, as usual we will start in the US, cross to Europe, then Asia, and end in Australia, and in passing we cover commodities and crypto. I have been highlighting how the data driven approach by Central Banks is a problem, because as new data lands, markets try to respond, making … Continue reading "Markets Discombobulated By Rate Cuts And Mixed Rear View Mirror Data, But Still Bets On AI Growth!"
This is the first in a series of posts which deep dives into our latest survey results, with a focus on financial stress, which is rising further. This episode provides an overview, subsequent episodes will dive into the details of mortgage, rental, investor and financial stress. If you want details of a particular post code, … Continue reading "Financial Pressure Reports: May 2024 – 1. Overview"
This is our weekly market update. In this show we look across the market action, starting in the US, then Europe, Asia and Australia and also touch on commodities and crypto, not least because this helps me get my thoughts in order as to what’s really going on. Top line, this past week’s performance on … Continue reading "Toppy Markets Feeling The Pain As More Data Confuses Again…"
Yesterday the ABS released the latest data on dwellings approved and they fell 0.3 per cent in April, after a 2.7 per cent rise in March, according to the seasonally adjusted data after just 13,078 new homes were signed off for construction. Looing at the mix, Approvals for private houses fell 1.6 per cent. While … Continue reading "No Homes For You: The Structural Desolation Of Dwelling Approval Falls!"
Australia is paying way too much for its home-grown gas, as the over-exporting of gas has driven East Coast gas prices 400% higher than historical average prices leading to higher inflation and a stalled energy transition. This is a huge impost on living standards via direct bill shocks and spills over to energy-intensive manufacturing, which … Continue reading "Gaslighting By The Gas Producers Exposed As Australians Pay!"
The latest monthly data on inflation from the ABS which came out today reported Annual growth in the non-seasonally adjusted monthly CPI lifted from 3.5 per cent last month to 3.6 per cent, above market expectations, while seasonally adjusted CPI is even higher at 3.8 per cent, and annual trimmed mean inflation (which removes food, … Continue reading "Danger! Inflation Traffic Accident Dead Ahead!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick, Research Director from the Australian Citizens Party as we discuss the newly released Senate report on Regional Branch Closures. Following their recommendations for making the provision of banking services and access to cash a fundamental right, and for considering a Public Bank, where … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Bank Branch Closures After The Senate Report: With Robbie Barwick"
Another week, another Rant from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the disruption in the property market, the fall out in terms of human impact and the weak responses from Government. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au Note: there will be no Rant next week, due to potential power disruptions, but we will be back the following … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The Senate published their Report into Regional Bank Branch Closures late last Friday. https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Rural_and_Regional_Affairs_and_Transport/BankClosures/Report I will be discussing this on my live YouTube show on Tuesday with Robbie Barwick. https://youtube.com/live/NJnaqhARu90 But already, the award winning Journalist Dale Webster over at the Regional has written an excellent article: https://www.theregional.com.au/post/banks-blow-their-chance-to-self-regulate-by-betraying-trust Over the 13 hearings held across Australia … Continue reading "Bankers Lose Over Bank Branch Closures: But Now The Political Games Begin!"
Housing is in crisis in Australia, its too expensive and relative to population there is not enough of it. As I discuss with independent Journalist Tarric Brooker last week, though shockingly, we have built more homes per 100,000 people than Canada, The US and the UK. In other words, we have a greater proportion of … Continue reading "Peddling The Housing Supply Myth: Again…"
This is our regular weekly market update. The roller coaster ride continued again this week on the markets, as traders were dazzled by strong corporate results from NVIDA underscoring the power of the AI super cycle on one hand, and by really mixed data signals on the other thanks to a raft of better-than-expected purchasing … Continue reading "Macro Versus Company Returns; What’s Driving The Chaotic Markets?"
Another Friday chat with Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest finance and property news, and the political context, as housing becomes more unaffordable, even as inflation remains untamed. What’s going on and is the Lucky Country running out of runway? Tarric’s slides are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-24th-may-2024 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Plenty Of Snakes: Not Many Ladders: With Tarric Brooker…"
There is a three-way split across the country as inequality rises with mortgage holders and renters bearing the brunt of poor policy decisions for years, while older property-owning cohorts are doing just fine. I have been highlighting the growing gulf between households and now the Australian Productivity Commission has released their research paper “A Snapshot … Continue reading "Inequality Rules (Great For Some; Horrid For Most)!"
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, saying that Restrictive monetary policy has reduced capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy and lowered consumer price inflation. Their statement on Monetary Policy had a decidedly hawkish tone, signalling rate cuts will be delayed until around August 2025, which … Continue reading "New Zealand Rates Held Higher For Longer As Hawks Fly!"
Today we got the April inflation read for the UK, (and a election announcement) which was expected to be lower than the previous month thanks to a substantial cut in the costs of energy to households. But in the end, UK inflation slowed by less than economists had predicted thanks to services inflation proving sticky, … Continue reading "Another Dose Of Sticky Inflation Lands…"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with our property insider Edwin Almeida as we explored how to plan and prepare a property for sale in the current climate. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au To contact us go to : https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ and use the help button on the bottom right of any page! Asbestos Awareness is at: … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Playing The Home Sales Game: With Edwin Almeida"
In this weeks Rant Edwin and I discuss the fallout from the budget, the latest developments in non-approved extensions, and trends from the WeChat Chatters and Silent Tigers as Australian property is still used to launder money. You can also join Edwin and I for a live show on Tuesday 21st May at 8pm Sydney … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
This past week, while we were distracted with the budget, our controlled digital future came one step nearer, as the Australian Federal Governments Digital ID Bill sailed through Parliament last week with the support of the crossbench, having been previously passed in the Senate. The passing into law of this bill may at a superficial … Continue reading "Digital Tyranny Another Step Closer As Digital ID Bill Is Passed!"
This is our weekly market update. After recent wobbles on concerns of higher rates for longer, the Bulls have been stomping through the markets this week. Data dependency is a marvellous thing because each shiny new data point has the potential to swing the market violently. Some might well be detecting signs of weakness below … Continue reading "The Bulls Are Running Again; For Now…"
Last week Michele Bullock the RBA Governor was asked a good question about how high migration might impact inflation. But her answer was well, weird, as she tried to trade off pressure on the housing market from higher demand driven rent rises against supplying more workers to meet business demand (and implicitly increasing economic activity). … Continue reading "The Migration Question Amplified; But Not Tackled… By Anyone!"
Fickle investors are no longer pricing the possibility of another cash rate rise from the RBA after data released overnight showed US inflation cooled to 3.4 per cent in April, putting an end to a three-month streak of hotter-than-expected US CPI data; and the Australian Employment numbers from the ABS peak up to an unemployment … Continue reading "The Employment Numberwang Confuses The Markets Upwards!"
This is my edit of the monthly economic chat with Nuggets News, as we explore the latest from the markets, and do a deep dive on the Australian economy after the RBA decision and The Budget! See Nuggets version at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQgQEpRnezI http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ … Continue reading "Economic Update For May 2024"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, in which I discuss the latest from the financial markets with Damien Klassen, Head of Investment at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. How have earnings season turned out, and where might the markets go next. How will the tussle between Bonds and Stocks play … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
In our latest rant Edwin and I tease apart the news surrounding the budget “announcables” relating to housing, discuss the rise of the “distressed sale” and examine how the WeChat Chatters are calling out Victoria as a place to exit. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
The Budget on Tuesday evening comes at an interesting time in the life of the current Government, as well as for ordinary Australians. With a year or so to go before the next election which must be held by May 2025 at the latest. (or sooner perhaps if Albo sees a window of opportunity) this … Continue reading "Budget Smudge-it As “The Announcables” Flow!"
This is my weekly market update, starting in the US, crossing to Europe, then Asia and ending in Australia plus commodities and crypto. An unusually strong solar storm hit the Earth overnight producing northern lights in the US and Europe and southern lights across Australia, including Queensland. Bright auroras were visible at unusually low latitudes. … Continue reading "Into The Storm: What Next?"
Housing affordability is shot, as we have been discussing, thanks to demand stoked by high migration, higher lending multiples as the financial system was deregulation, and higher interest rates mirroring the RBA’s battle to tame inflation. As a result first time buyers are delaying their purchase by several years, and more borrowers are leveraged up … Continue reading "The “Tapping Super For Home Purchase” Conundrum!"
According to a recent report, Australian capital cities are becoming more segregated along socioeconomic lines. And the trend is worst in Sydney. Inequality is rising. The Conversation published: Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging trend around? Written by three researchers from the University … Continue reading "Danger: Inequality Rising!"
Those following my regular Property Rants with Edwin will know we have been speculating that there would be budget measures announced next week to help property developers. Well, they could not wait it seems… The 600,000 plus migrants arriving in Australia this past year are continuing to put more pressure on the housing sector, and … Continue reading "More Housing “Announcables” From The Government…"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, as we looked at the latest data on mortgage and rental stress, and many other metrics from our models, which gives us a view of how households are really travelling in this higher for longer rate environment, and in the light of the RBA’s rate decision. … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Latest On Household And Post Code Financial Pressure"
Another outing with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we kick around the latest news and data across the Australian Property market. Can you believe the theoretical housing announcables? Where is demand for property really coming from? What is the story of overseas purchasers? Plus, we look at the latest numbers, and Edwin was a … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Guess what, Bankers are looking at ways to ease lending standards to pump the market some more, as bank margins are under pressure at a time when lending growth is already strong, and more households are already in financial difficulty. The value of new housing loans have risen by 17.9% since March 2023, to $27.6 … Continue reading "As More Households Are Crushed, Bankers Talk Their Own Book On Easing Mortgage Lending Rules!"
This is our latest weekly market update. Another wild week on the markets, driven by conflicting data, and a reactive FED, who has effectively given up on forward guidance, and who does not know where rates will go. But despite Powell’s protests to the contrary, some are suggesting Central Bankers are being swayed by political … Continue reading "Are Central Bankers Becoming Political Animals?"
Contrary to the bankers claiming digital payments are replacing cash, yet more evidence is showing that use of cash is on the RISE! We look at data from New Zealand based on a recent survey as the Reserve Bank there announces pilots to make access to cash easier. The trend of rising cash use was … Continue reading "Don’t Believe The Bankers: More People Are Using Cash!"
Once upon a time, in a land down under, there was a Government who promised to build 1.2 million homes, over five years, or 240,000 per year or 60,000 homes per quarter. And he huffed and he puffed, but despite everything, the best he could manage, at least in the year to March 2024 was … Continue reading "The Stupidest Tale Of All!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party as we look at the latest in the war on cash, and the current claims we are in a “pre-war” environment more generally. What, or who is driving the narrative and what does this say about our economic … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: What’s Driving The “Pre-War” And “Cashless” Propaganda? With Robbie Barwick"
In this weeks rumble, we deep dive into property auctions, which will make agents cry, and also look at the smoke and mirrors in the media. Plus Dusty and Evan wreck Edwin’s studio, as well as discussing some eating advice! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"
Against the backcloth of higher rates for longer, many of the Australian banks will provide trading updates over the next couple of weeks. As a group, they currently have the highest set of valuations seen for decades, but then, their earnings have held up relative to expectations. So what is ahead? And are all banks … Continue reading "Banking On Profitability, If You’re Big Enough!"
This is our latest weekly market update, starting in the US, UK, then Europe, Asia and Australia, and also covering Gold. Oil and Crypto. A comprehensive round-up of what is happening! We are, it seems entering the twilight zone, as the scent of stagflation is spreading, as inflation becomes increasingly sticky, especially in services, while … Continue reading "The Scent Of Stagflation Hangs Over The Markets!"
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the latest data, as inflation reasserts itself, and higher for longer seems the play. We discuss the consequences for Australian households, and delve into the charts to understand what is really going on. Here is the link to Tarric’s slides:https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-26th-april-2024 Here is the link to the recent discussion with … Continue reading "Does “Burnout Economics” Equal Stagflation? With Tarric Brooker…"
The value of stocks are driven partly by momentum, through perhaps we should really call this hopium, as its really investors betting with their gut, and the cold hard realities of financial results. Markets have been leveraged higher by rate cut expectations and the prospects of AI. But when the numbers come in at results … Continue reading "Looking Past Hopium Towards Real Numbers…"
The truth is that recent high rise construction in many Australian cities, are riddled with defects, and someone needs to pay for rectification. This surge in high-rise apartment construction happened as building certification was privatised, costs cut and poorly trained workers employed. As a result, we have a litany of increased building flaws and quality … Continue reading "The Crippling Highrise Disaster Continues…"
Rate cuts anytime this year in Australia, are now hanging by a thread, given the latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, despite the annual rate falling thanks to base effects from months ago, and some changes in the weightings. The upside surprise came via a smaller than expected fall in utilities, but stronger … Continue reading "More Inflation Shenanigans: Will The Next Rate Move Be Up, Not Down?"
This is an edited version of a live discussion, Adam Stokes, a crypto advocate in which we discussed the recent halving, and what may happen next. Last weekend marked the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, which reduces the supply of new coins. While the short-term impact may be muted, long-term investors remain optimistic due to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: After The Halving: With Adam Stokes"
Well, the slew of economic data in the past few days suggests the UK economy is in a bit of a pickle, with a mix of recessionary signals pulling against some more positive wages news (at least for some). And it highlights the dilemma facing many Central Banks, as their data dependency pulls them in … Continue reading "Pickled Brits Anyone?"
This is an edit of my latest live show, as I walk through our latest financial stress analysis, to end August. Which post codes are most impacted, and what are the potential outlook for prices and defaults? Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
More from our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the bulls in the market, silly bidding and vendors bids, and the latest “announcables” which will do very little to solve the housing disaster which awaits many. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Last week, the departing RBA Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe used his final public comments given at the Anika Foundation to defend his more controversial comments, saying while some of his explanations had “missed the mark” the media also had a responsibility to avoid “clickbait”. But he also highlighted the limitations of monetary policy and … Continue reading "The Limitations Of Monetary Policy (And What Lowe Does Next…)"
In recent months Central Banks have been able to say inflation was falling back towards their targets. But, this had little to do with their rate hiking cycle, and more to the adjustment in supply-side prices, especially energy. The so-called base effects where big lifts in inflation months ago dropped out helped the narrative. But … Continue reading "Will Inflation Come Roaring Back?"
OK, so we know many households are under severe pressure, thanks to falling real incomes, rising inflation and of course interest rate payments. I covered this yesterday in the context of the latest GDP numbers, which on a GDP per capita basis were pretty frightful. We have seen a record rise in cost-of-living for employee … Continue reading "Work Till You Drop…"
UK house prices fell at their sharpest annual pace since 2009 after soaring mortgage rates curtailed how much buyers could afford, Halifax, one of the nation’s biggest mortgage lenders said today. https://www.halifax.co.uk/media-centre/house-price-index.html Halifax said the average value of a home fell 1.9% in August alone to £279,569, the sharpest monthly pace since November. It left … Continue reading "UK Property Prices Fall The Most In 14 Years!"
Superficially, Australia’s economy maintained its momentum in the three months through June, with the expansion underpinned by exports and sectors less impacted by the Reserve Bank’s 12 interest-rate increases. That said, key themes from the accounts are: ongoing weakness in consumer spending; slowing growth in employee compensation; rapid deterioration in productivity; offset by boosts from … Continue reading "OZ GDP: Didn’t We Do Well (No Not Really)!"
I caught up with Peter Marshall from Mozo to talk about the current trajectory of interest rates for mortgages, savings and cards, following the RBA’s decision to hold the cash rate at 4.1% on Tuesday. https://mozo.com.au/authors/peter-marshall The point is, more than ever before perhaps, its important to shop around for the best available rates, as … Continue reading "Interest Rates And How They Are Impacting Households: With Peter Marshall"
This is an edit of my live discussion with Damien Klassen, Head of Investing at Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth. September is often a bad month in the markets. How have events in China been impacting the current dynamics, will interest rates and bond rates go higher still, and has AI still further … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: With Damien Klassen"
My latest chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest in the rental crisis, more demand from certain groups for property which can be subdivided, and more horror pictures of property gone wrong. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
New Zealand’s house price slump has given first-time homebuyers a welcomed leg up in their quest to purchase a property, but it may be a short-lived opportunity. For a certain segment of the nation’s would-be homeowners — those armed with sizable deposits and solid incomes — 2023 has been a heartening year, with first-time buyers … Continue reading "Kiwi First Time Buyers Getting A [Brief?] Look-In?"
Central Bankers have been at pains to say they are being data dependant in setting monetary policy. But the problem now is markets are chasing every new scrap of news, and then trying to react, ahead of the Central Bankers, creating an uncertainty monster. So an awful August gives way to an uncertain September, investors … Continue reading "The Problem With Being Data Dependant, Is Being Data Dependant!"
Another Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, and slides as we look at China and the impact on the Australian economy. Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-your-australia-and Send us your questions for future shows! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Bank of England, like other Central Banks, is a weird entity, in that it can, if it wants create money. We saw that through the QE programmes, through which it acquired large portfolios of Government Bonds – known as guilts. The program ran from 2009 to 2022 and was designed to improve financing conditions … Continue reading "Is The Bank Of England Broke – And Does It Matter?"
Almost one in three Australians are struggling to make ends meet, as cost-of-living pressures push more people to renegotiate bills, cut back on groceries and access their superannuation early. And one in five hit up friends or family as times tighten. About 30 per cent of Australian adults find it difficult or very difficult to … Continue reading "More Households Buckle Under The Strain…"
The monthly CPI indicator rose 4.9% in the twelve months to July compared with 5.4% last month. The CPI excluding volatile items was at 5.8% compared with 6.1% last month and the annual trimmed mean was 5.6% compared with 6% last month. So Annual price rises continue to ease from the peak of 8.4 per … Continue reading "Inflation Crawling Lower (For Now), But…."
…Ain’t no fun and games! This is an edited version of our recent live show, which was a dose of reality from Investment Manager Tony Locantro, from Alto Capital. Is the game up, and what are the consequences for investors, home owners and aspiring first time buyers? https://www.altocapital.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Tony Locantro: Welcome To The Sh*t Show.."
In our weekly market update we look at the latest signals from Jackson Hole, plus market reaction to the tech results, and forward expectations for rates and markets. Meantime in China, expect deposit rates to be cut, while in Australia, market weakness and a weak AUD does not bode well. We must expect rates higher … Continue reading "Higher For Longer – Yes Really!"
Listing rise in a number of locations, suggesting potential home price weakness especially in Sydney and Melbourne. So the question is where is the lift coming from, what is driving it, and what are the potential consequences? Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s … Continue reading "The Lion In Winter As Property Listings Rise…"
A deep dive into the latest data, this is my edit of the latest show. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The UK banking sector is being warned it faces penalties if it does not secure free access to cash for the UK population, including businesses, following waves of branch closures over more than a decade. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/free-access-to-cash-protected The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and Treasury confirmed the guidelines the industry was expected to follow. The legal framework … Continue reading "Access To Cash Enshrined In Law: Finally!"
This week has continued to underscore the change in the market weather, following the hopium of July. “We’ve long been overdue for a correction in equities, and it’s clear that higher rates have now become the catalyst for that,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president investment strategy at investment and wealth advisory firm Glenmede. “When the … Continue reading "The Bears Are Back Baby!"
Another deep dive into the data with Journalist Tarric Brooker as we explore the recent events in China, the housing story (and political announceables), the mortgage cliff (or not) and lots more. Slides are available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-18th-august-2023 Tarric’s article which we mention is here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-fixed-rate-mortgage-cliff http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed sharply lower on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected retail sales data stoked worries interest rates could stay higher for longer, while U.S. big banks dropped on a report that Fitch could downgrade some lenders. The U.S. retail sales data comes on the heels of strong inflation readings for July, and could … Continue reading "Higher For Longer Hits Home! [Podcast]"
An in-depth look at New Zealand, as the Reserve Bank holds rates at 5.5% and underscores the need to hold rates higher for longer. Plus, the inquiry into Banking Competition fires up, and the Chief statistician says people do not want to talk to them! Wonder why? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "The New Zealand Cash Rate Is Held, But No Rate Cuts Can Be Expected Yet!"
UK inflation remained higher than expected last month as the cost of travel and holidays climbed, adding to the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, this despite an expected fall in energy prices. The Consumer Prices Index rose 6.8% in July, exceeding the 6.7% rate expected by economists, the Office … Continue reading "UK Inflation Still Not Beaten, As Wages Spiral (For Some…)"
This is an edited version of our latest live stream, an exploration of the latest in property news, in a important week, where there Government wants to focus on housing supply, while the Greens are trying to freeze rents. I will be joined by our property insider, Edwin Almeida. Go to the Walk The World … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Property Live Show With Edwin Almeida [Podcast]"
Home prices are driven by a combination of demand where population growth thanks to high migration puts upward pressure on prices; supply where more property for sale puts downward pressure on prices, and availability of credit as the catalyst for transactions to occur. Much of the debate is currently centered on supply side issues. As … Continue reading "The Elephants In The Room Of Property Prices"
Our normal weekend market update, as incoming data is all over the show. No wonder things are volatile! The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite fell on Friday and posted their second straight weekly losses, as hotter-than-expected U.S. producer prices data pushed Treasury yields higher and sank rate-sensitive megacap growth stocks. Being data dependent, means … Continue reading "Data Dependence Equals Volatility! [Podcast]"
The Bank of England, alongside other Central Banks say they are being data dependent as they try to balance interest rates, inflation, growth and employment. So the latest from the UK ONS revealed that the UK economy delivered its strongest quarterly growth in more than a year, a surprising show of resilience that will keep … Continue reading "The UK Economy Is Delicately Placed! [Podcast]"
UK households are facing an avalanche of cost pressures triggered by rising interest rates and the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation. Key mortgage rates soared above 6% again this summer, and homebuilders including Ballymore Properties and Vistry Group Plc have already said they’re planning to cut staff numbers. No surprise then that Britain’s property … Continue reading "The UK Property Market Is Slowing! [Podcast]"
The Australian economy has been relatively stable in the face of the higher interest rates, until now but cracks may be forming as new data arrives. Our mortgage stress analysis which we reported on earlier is one. Now Payroll jobs data says the same. The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) receives payroll information from employers with … Continue reading "Are There Signs The Australian Labor Market Is Slowing? [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of our latest live event where we discussed our latest analysis, against the backcloth of a slowing economy. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
Show Me The Numbers! A deep dive into some of the fallacies which driven by MSM (and who pays the bills?) as we look at the latest from our property insider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Spain might be an example we should be looking at, as their inflation has fallen below 2%. How did they achieve this compared with the UK or Australia? Simply put they went beyond the simplistic interest rate lever, and used effective fiscal measures as well. So today we look at lessons we can learn from … Continue reading "Is There Another Path To Beat Inflation? [Podcast]"
My latest Friday chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we deep dive into the latest charts and trends. You can see the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-4th-august-2023?sd=pf Japan article here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/kamikaze-bank-of-japan-policy-and http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
The latest from the ABS on Living Costs highlights that for most households, real costs of living are rising faster than those represented in the CPI. In fact, when rising mortgage costs are included (up 91.6%) some households are exposed to cost pressures much higher than represented in the CPI – and these are averages … Continue reading "The Costs Of Living Are Going Through The Roof! [Podcast]"
The RBA held the cash rate again, while the ABS reported strong mortgage refinance, though lower credit growth, and lower building approvals. And Consumer Confidence moved slightly higher, but still in negative territory. You can join my live show later today as I discuss the latest with Damien Klassen from Nucleus Wealth. https://youtu.be/l9VpYwgEc-c http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go … Continue reading "The RBA Holds As Refinancing Goes Through The Roof! [Podcast]"
New research from NAB suggests the average Australian feels only “moderately” stressed about money or making ends meet, but also only “moderately” comfortable they are on top of their finances, could manage a major unexpected expense, and are on track to have enough money for their future financial needs. But averages mask. They say over … Continue reading "“Hidden” Financial Hardship Is On The Rise! [Podcast]"
Well, dangerous investor euphoria is now spreading like a rash on the belief, at least in the US, of a perfect soft landing as inflation is vanquished, without a recession. Cash and hedges are out, replaced by demand for everything from small caps to meme stocks. Industrial shares are on a tear, junk-bond spreads are … Continue reading "FOMO Grips Traders As Inflation Deflates (For Now). [Podcast]"
The Fed lifted rates again on Wednesday to a 22-year high, and pretty much repeated the statement from last month. But there is an expectation of higher rates for longer, and that inflation would be above target for the next couple of years. The market reacted as expected, given the hike was well signaled, but … Continue reading "Another 2-Years Above Target Inflation Says The Fed! [Podcast]"
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8 per cent in the June 2023 quarter and 6.0 per cent annually, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). CPI inflation slowed in the June quarter, with the quarterly rise being the lowest since September 2021. While prices continued to rise for most … Continue reading "Some More CPI Numberwanging Says Rates May Have Peaked (For Now) [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of my latest live stream which was an important live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party as we discuss the upcoming censorship bill relating to Social Media, the attempts by Banks to strangle communities and abolish cash, and the risks emerging from Central Bank Digital Currencies and … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Civil Society In The Balance: With Robbie Barwick"
Wall Street closed out another week with a quiet Friday on US markers as stocks found some stability after sliding the day before. The S&P 500 edged up by less than 0.1 per cent, to 4,536.34 to cap its eighth winning week in the last 10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added less than 0.1 … Continue reading "Toppy Markets Remain Edgy On Better Than Expected Results, For Now… [Podcast]"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker goes deep into the economic substructure of the economy, where we see people pulling in two directions at the same time – Burnout Economics! https://avidcom.substack.com/p/burnout-economics-presentation-onhttps://avidcom.substack.com/p/resuming-student-loan-payments-to http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research … Continue reading "Welcome To Burnout Economics! With Tarric Brooker [Podcast]"
Australian employment surpassed expectations in June and the jobless rate held at a lower revised rate, underlining the labor market’s resilience to rapid interest-rate increases. The jobless rate remained at 3.5%, having hovered in a range of 3.4%-3.7% since June last year, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed Thursday. The economy added 32,600 roles from … Continue reading "The Number-Wangers Are At It Again! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of my latest live stream where I was joined by Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. We explored the current weird dynamics around housing, as well as the broader economic and political context, and answered viewers questions. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay – The Housing Paradox With Leith van Onselen [Podcast]"
The Australian Government has released an exposure draft of the Communications Legislation Amendment (Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2023. https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/have-your-say/new-acma-powers-combat-misinformation-and-disinformation This is an attempt to curtail free speech and allow greater Government control over what we think and say – very 1984, as I discuss with Robbie Barwick from the Citizen’s Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ We have … Continue reading "Its 21 Days To 1984! [Podcast]"
In evidence given in Parliament this week we had confirmation that at least NAB, one of Australia’s big four banks, is using partial interaction statistics to falsely justify their programme of Regional Branch closures. This is the data which is parroted by the Banking Association spokesperson to justify the unjustifiable. In the light of this, … Continue reading "Gotcha! More Big Bank BS…"
In another volatile week, the markets latest winning week closed with a mixed finish on Friday following stronger profit reports than expected from several big US companies and more benign inflation news from the US this week. Hopes for an easier Fed also helped stocks worldwide to strengthen, though markets abroad were also mixed on … Continue reading "Has The Inflation Hurricane Abated? [Podcast]"
Today The Bank Of Canada lifted rates by another 25 basis points, to try to tame inflation (while extending its expectation of above target rates of inflation) , the Bank of England spoke about households stress and financial stability, while in Australia all the focus was on the structure and frequency of board meetings. Talk … Continue reading "Central Banks In Wonderland! [Podcast]"
This is a replay of a live Q&A on the state of the crypto markets, with Adam Stokes https://www.youtube.com/@UC_LynnVoF0RJV6BjNJW26Ig The global cryptocurrency market cap today is $1.22 Trillion, a -0.15% change in the last 24 hours and 25.83% change one year ago. We look at the latest trends and fads, and set this in a … Continue reading "DFA Live: Update From, Crypto Land With Adam Stokes [Podcast]"
I go down the rabbit hole with George to discuss inflation, what really caused it and what needs to be done to fix it. We cover the role of central banks, global non-elected non-government entities, and cbdc. As always these chats will question some underlying assumptions and some will find that disturbing… Thanks to George … Continue reading "Another Visit Down The Rabbit Hole: On Inflation [Podcast]"
An important discussion about Banking Culture with Citizens Party Research Director Robbie Barwick. Despite the progress from the Senate Inquiry into branch closures, some banks (we name them) are doing the wrong thing. Why? Because they can and because they have powerful political influence (for now). http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at … Continue reading "Banks Behaving Very Very Badly: With Robbie Barwick [Podcast]"
Our latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as the US 2-year bond breaks above 5%. How will inflation play out, what will the impact on home prices be, and have politicians got our interests at heart? Find out as we discuss more charts and viewer questions. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-6cf http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "A Truly Historic Moment: With Tarric Brooker… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of our latest live show. This week Damien Klassen from Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth discussed the markets and his latest analysis. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our latest market update we look back across the first half of the year, as markets have continued to drive higher in the light of higher rates and continued uncertainty. As we move into July, the past six months on the markets have contained all types of contradictions, with prices spiked by AI, hopes … Continue reading "Where’s That Recession Then? [Podcast]"
The latest from the ABS on retail turnover looked superficially stronger (and again the MSM went to town). But correcting for population growth and inflation it is a different story, and we know some are cutting back hard, while others are spending big on the offers and discount incentives. Nothing here to stop the RBA, … Continue reading "A Retail Conundrum [Podcast]"
Latest data shows that more recent property purchases are being sold not long after buying, and some are going for a loss relative to their previous purchase prices (plus of course the various costs of transfer). This is another sign of rising distress in the markets, with a focus on recent buyers (especially first time … Continue reading "When The Property Wheels Fall Off! [Podcast]"
The latest numberwang from the ABS showed only a slight fall in core inflation, though the headline dropped a bit. And of course the MSM were celebrating the “news”. These are the less reliable monthly series of course. However, the underlying story is one of sticky wages inflation and some one-off changes which offset rises. … Continue reading "A Small Inflation Breather [Podcast]"
Our latest weekly market update. Last week was quite a week, with the start driving markets higher in an AI induced hallucination, before the reality of rates higher for longer hit home, thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony in which he signaled more interest rate hikes ahead but vowed the central bank would … Continue reading "Do The Recession Sirens Call? [Podcast]"
Another exploration of the current economic situation Journalist Tarric Brooker. How baked in is Australia’s recession? See the slides here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-a42 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony reinforced the central bank’s objective to rein in inflation as he hinted at the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. At the start of this year, markets were expecting a bumpy ride on the markets. Yet, the S&P 500 is up … Continue reading "Markets Face Reality For Now, As AI Deceives…. [Podcast]"
CBA has joined the lenders cutting the buffers rate to 1% for certain borrowers, despite the Council of Financial Regulators saying 3% was appropriate. More extend and pretend. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in … Continue reading "Extend And Pretend, Some More… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of our latest live stream where we look at the latest economic data, our modelling and post level results. We also corrected the audio which in the live version was a bit all over the place! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
U.S. shares struck new highs for the year on Friday and helped lift world stocks to a 13-month peak, as rising bets that the Federal Reserve will skip a rate hike next week overshadowed worries about U.S. markets being drained of cash. Surging enthusiasm for technology giants building consumer products based on artificial intelligence catapulted … Continue reading "Just Don’t Look Down! [Podcast]"
The latest from the ABS highlights the rising number of workers with multiple jobs in an attempt to cover the rising costs of living. Many women working part-time in healthcare and related sectors are impacted. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The rate hikes from the RBA and BOC are important indicators for the FED decision next week. In short, rates are going higher for longer, suggesting a recession, and further pressure on banks. Are markets finally getting the message? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday after a labor market report showing moderating wage growth in May indicated the Federal Reserve may skip a rate hike in two weeks, while investors welcomed a Washington deal that avoided a catastrophic debt default with the Senate passing a bill late on Thursday to lift the government’s $31.4 … Continue reading "The Market’s Tug-O-War Gets More Intense! [Podcast]"
We look at the latest monthly CPI figures which were stronger than anticipated, and Phil Lowes’ outing in front of the Senate (maybe his last?). It is highly likely that further rate increases are on the cards, despite the record high debt burden, acknowledge by the Governor. And whilst there was a focus on productivity … Continue reading "Inflation Says More Rate Rises Are Ahead! [Podcast]"
Higher mortgage rates are starting to catch up on a number of fixed rated holders. Indeed over the next few months, higher home prices and the rate cliff will collide! What may happen? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Edwin Almeida our property insider joins me for another discussion about the state of property – it might blow your socks off!! https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The bare bones of an agreement was announced late Saturday night in the US, and assuming its passed on the hill , the debt ceiling crisis looks like it has been postponed until 2025. As the US markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day, we can expect Asian markets to react first! It is … Continue reading "A Tentative Debt Ceiling Agreement Has Been Reached! [Podcast]"
US stocks rose broadly in their last trading day before a long weekend, despite painfully slow progress on debt ceiling negotiations and disappointing inflation data. Chip stocks surged for a second straight day on optimism about artificial intelligence. Investors were closely watching debt ceiling talks as Biden and McCarthy still seemed at odds over several … Continue reading "Another Dose Of “Hope-ium” Kicks Markets Higher! [Podcast]"
My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the latest outlook for rates, inflation and recession. Slides at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance-8eb http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is an edited version of our recent live stream with mortgage Broker Chris Bates. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Data today showed Germany went into recession earlier in the year, and yet the ECB is firmly backing more rate rises. And US recession expectations are still on the horizon, even if a bit later, as rate rises bite. From New Zealand and beyond, recession is expected – and it seems unlikely Australia can resist. … Continue reading "The Recession We’ve Gotta Have! [Podcast]"
The Federal Government has [finally] declared Buy Now Pay Later products as credit products and has outlined a path to regulation in the months ahead, recognizing that the products can harm customers. Big players like CBA pushed the Government into a more gentle regime than I think is idea,, but at least its a step … Continue reading "The Regulation Of “Duck Quacking” Buy Now Pay Later Loans! [Podcast]"
The latest from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida. we look at the latest numbers, how Governments are trying to “support” the market, and what happens when we get recognized…. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest Senate hearings on Regional Branch closures, and discuss the continued misdirection coming from the cost-cutting banks – justified – so called – by the migration to digital banking. But as discussed during the hearings, the banks do not want to talk about what they are doing, and a peoples bank … Continue reading "More Digital Banking BS… [Podcast]"
Just a couple of days ago, markets bounced on the back of hopes talks on raising the US debt limit were in play, on growing confidence a deal to raise the $31.4 trillion debt limit could be reached in coming days, with the benchmark S&P 500 climbing more than 2%. But as this came to … Continue reading "More Debt Ceiling Handbrake Turns Casts A Volatile Outlook… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of my latest live stream, featuring Leath van Onselen, joint founder of Macrobusiness and Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We explored the consequences of the massive waves of migration now forecast in the budget pages (hidden in an appendix) and the potential impact of home prices and quality of life. … Continue reading "DFA Live Replay With Leith van Onselen: Housing And The Population Ponzi [Podcast]"
I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the latest mortgage rate moves, and how this is playing out across households and banks. With the expectation that rates might well go higher still, what can be done? https://www.canstar.com.au/team-members/steve-mickenbecker/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The financial markets have been fighting the Fed since October of last year, especially since the start of this year, in two ways. The first involves bidding-up stock prices in anticipation of a ‘Fed pivot’, which is probably a self-defeating strategy. The second involves factoring lower interest rates into bond prices. The backdrop is mounting … Continue reading "Risk Upon Risk Upon Risk: Market Update 13th May 23 [Podcast]"
Our latest Friday evening chat with Tarric Brooker. We answer follower questions on the mortgage market. And we got into some deep discussion about where prices may go! Slides we discussed. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-and-links-from-appearance? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
ASIC is warning credit providers and debt management firms that strong, targeted action against predatory lending, high-cost credit and misconduct impacting consumers experiencing financial difficulty is expected in the coming months as part of its continuing focus on protecting consumers. Timely, given the high cost of debt, and the pressure many households and businesses are … Continue reading "A Predatory Lending Crackdown [Podcast]"
The Bank of England lifted the cash rate by 0.25%, the 12th rise – to 4.5%. They held a press conference of over an hour, and mindful of the recommendations relating to the RBA review highlighting weakness in communication, I picked out some highlights from the UK session. This includes the basic rationale for the … Continue reading "The Bank Of England Lifts Rates Again! [Podcast]"
This weeks rant was recorded later than normal, but we explored some fundamental questions about the RE industry, and how agents are rewarded. No wonder we see some poor behaviors. And we look at the importance of keeping calm given the falls in listings, and what happens when people fail to take the right steps … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! (Late This Week!!) [Podcast]"
Breaking news, as Westpac reverses its decision to close some of its regional branches, in response to the pressure form the Senate inquiry (which we managed to get up). I discuss this with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party. The job is not done yet, and we need to ensure the Treasurer reverses his support … Continue reading "Westpac Wilts Under Scrutiny: With Robbie Barwick… [Podcast]"
The latest from our modelling showing more pressure piling on households as mortgage rates and rents rise faster than incomes, and costs of living continue to bite hard. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Dale Webster at The Regional has caught CBA out, as despite their promise not to close regional branches while the Senate Inequity is running, they are, by carefully defining down “Regional” to a very narrow definition, conveniently leveraging the ABS definitions, despite elsewhere calling these same regions Regional. https://www.theregional.com.au/post/commonwealth-breaks-pledge-to-pause-regional-bank-closures The Senate needs to hold CBA … Continue reading "CBA Breaks The Pledge To Pause Regional Bank Closures! [Podcast]"
We continue to see massive swings in prices, and I need to remind you that while major players continue to benefit from these wild gyrations in perceived value – as shown in recent trading results, (not least because they can programme trades using algos, and harvest income from the movements) – retail investors hardly benefit, … Continue reading "The Volatility Squeeze [Podcast]"
The latest RBA’s Statement On Monetary Policy (More than 80 pages) said very little which was new, with inflation not expected to land within their target zone until 2025, with lower growth and higher unemployment. They reconfirmed an expectation rates could still go higher. They did try to defend corporate profits as not driving inflation…. … Continue reading "The RBA’s Statement On Monetary Policy Says Not A Lot! [Podcast]"
The continued pressures on US Regional Banks highlight the risks created by the changed interest rate environment – even if the scenarios are different from the 2007-8 GFC. But banks are under pressure as margins are compressed, and are needing to revisit their strategies, as both ANZ and Macquarie reposted this week. In fact, a … Continue reading "Not 2008 Again, But A Crisis Nevertheless… [Podcast]"
As discussed in The Conversation, the RBA was made subservient for a reason. As prime minister, Chifley had the principle enshrined in the Commonwealth Bank Act of 1945, and it was later enshrined in the Reserve Bank Act of 1959. The ultimate supremacy of the government over the Reserve Bank board was hard won – … Continue reading "A Truly Independent RBA? [Podcast]"
The Fed lifted rates again to 5 to 5.25%, but the press conference did not go to plan and the markets turned to thinking a pivot was likely. Bond yields moved, and concerns about a spreading banking crisis grew, as PacWest said it was looking at options. Meantime, the FED holds to its view there … Continue reading "The Feds Nasty Surprise! [Podcast]"
This is a recording of the first in our new live series. Damien Klassen from Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth will join me to discuss the latest market developments. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
After the “surprise” rate hike on Tuesday, the RBA Governor spoke in Perth about the prospect ahead. Reading between the lines it does seem there remains a tightening bias at the RBA, and in line with our expectations, higher rates may still be on the cards, together with a rise in unemployment. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to … Continue reading "The RBA Will Tighten More… [Podcast]"
The latest from our property insider – Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest numbers, and incentives to drag more into the market. Got to save those property prices!! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The leading indicators relating to the US economy are screaming Stagflation, as the FED meets this coming week. Yet rates are likely to go higher to tackle rising costs, even as a credit crunch in underway. Not pretty. The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go … Continue reading "Stagflation, Here We Come! [Podcast]"
Once again, we saw contention in the markets, as US equities extended a rally Friday as investors weighed strong corporate earnings against concerns about regional banks and inflation. Treasuries rose. investors may still be cautious ahead of Apple’s results due next week and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the U.S. jobs report … Continue reading "Schizophrenic Markets Wrestle With Countervailing Trends… [Podcast]"
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I reconnected following my relocation, for the first in our series of bi-weekly afternoon chats about economics and politics. It may be a couple of months since our last, but in many ways, things are the same… http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Chief Economist At The Bank of England Huw Pill this week argued that there was a need for restraint to contain inflation. He got significant reaction on socials. And there is an argument that both Unions and Corporates have a vested interest in bidding wages and prices higher – its their job. But we … Continue reading "Playing The Inflation Blame Game! [Podcast]"
US markets remain jittery as fears of a recession continue to build, despite some better than expected earrings reports, form tech. But the key issue relates to financial stability in the regional banking sector as the fall out from First Republic Bank continues. Indeed the regulators and banks are playing chicken – not good considering … Continue reading "The Market’s Game Of Chicken Continues…. [Podcast]"
The latest in inflation from the ABS reveals a higher level of underlying inflation, despite the4 base effects people were expecting to see. As result, the expectation for a further round of rate hikes extended in Australia, as the energy and gas prices continue to climb. That said, some optimistic market analysts are call for … Continue reading "Inflation Does What It Does… [Podcast]"
Where should accountability lay for the decisions of the Central Bank? There are many arguing that more independence is needed, so politicians can claim arms length influence only. On the other hand to date, this approach has not been working, and in a New Daily article Alan Kohler makes some interesting observations. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to … Continue reading "If The RBA Were A Company, The Governor Would Be Out Of A Job! [Podcast]"
More from our Property Insider, as we look at the latest news, with a focus on Australia. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Access to cash is an essential requirement for businesses and households, and this aspect of the current Senate review into Regional Branch Closures is a critical issue. This same issue is playing out in the UK, and today we look at a recent report which highlights some essential issues. This needs to be incorporated into … Continue reading "Access To Cash Must Be Preserved… [Podcast]"
A further deeper dive into the RBA Review recommendations. I felt it was more like blancmange, than a piece of innovative reform – not least because the proposed structural separation and targetting are close to that used by other Central banks, who make precisely the same mistakes as our own. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk … Continue reading "Operation Blancmange [Podcast]"
Dale Webster has been highlighting the significance of rising online fraud in the context of bank branch closures, and we discuss her recent submission to the current inquiry. Poor mobile coverage in the bush makes two factor identification laughable, and yet banks are paying tellers to push them online. The latest edition of our finance … Continue reading "Why Closing Branches Leads To More Online Fraud… [Podcast]"
The RBA Review has been released, and I discuss the recommendations with Robbie Barwick from The Citizens Party, which will removed important powers from Government and reaffirms the neoliberal philosophy which has undermined our economy for years. The final week for submissions to the Regional Banking Inquiry also offers an important opportunity to make the … Continue reading "The Battle Lines Are Drawn: With Robbie Barwick… [Podcast]"
The latest UK inflation statistics surprised to the upside, baking in more rate rises. Again, the pattern is different from what markets expected, so they repriced future rate expectations. More evidence against those hoping for rate cuts anytime soon. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you … Continue reading "The Inflation Shockers Continue… [Podcast]"
In my final show from Australia, I consider the latest outlook for the financial system, ahead of decisions from the FED and Bank of England as markets try to navigate the uncertain signals coming to the surface. It may be calmer for now, but the question is, is this the calm before the storm? And … Continue reading "All Is Calm – But Is It The Calm Before The Storm? [Podcast]"
My final chat with Damien Klassen from Nucleus Wealth before I fly out focussed on the current banking crisis and how this might play out ahead. Things could get very interesting. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In the final part of our Australian Property Rant series with property insider Edwin Almeida we look at the latest numbers and emerging trends. After a short break though we will be back with the International Property Rant weekly, so stay subscribed to catch the first in the new series. http://www.martinnorth.com/ https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant: Australian Final [Podcast]"
For the final time in Australia, I caught up with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party. We looked at the progress towards the establishment of a Public Bank in the light of recent failures, and the inquiry into Regional Banking. Importantly, there are just two more weeks to get your submission to the Inquiry. Have … Continue reading "Two Weeks To Save The Banking System! [Podcast]"
The latest inflation data for the US underscored the ongoing inflation problem the FED has, and while the markets are hoping for a pause, or cut, on the latest numbers this is unlikely. The battle to control inflation is far from won. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
So once again the banks get a helping hand from the FED, and depositors in the US are guaranteed to an unlimited extent. But what of moral hazard? And the markets now do not expect further rate rises, despite the inflation pressures in play. Yet perhaps there is a bifurcation between liquidity and rates, so … Continue reading "No Free Market Capitalism Here! [Podcast]"
A chat with Edwin, as I continue to demolish the studio…. meantime, who is demolishing the financial system????? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market update we look at the contention between the markets and Central Banks. The former is banking on cuts later this year, the latter focusing on inflation control, and the need for higher interest rates. Both cannot be true. And results this past round suggest weakness ahead. CONTENTS 0:00 Start0:15 Introduction00:30 US … Continue reading "All About The Fed, And What Might Break First!"
Tarric Brooker joins me for my last Friday afternoon chat for a month or so, as I relocate to the UK. For the reasons see here: https://youtu.be/7Nj6N_amn3Y We discussed a range of viewers questions, for which thanks. I have genuinely enjoyed my regular chats with Tarric, and rest assured we plan to continue them once … Continue reading "So Long, And Thanks For All The Fish! – With Tarric Brooker… [Podcast]"
More analysts are now talking about mortgage stress. How ever you define the concept (we prefer cash flow metrics) things are getting worse. So ahead of our next batch of updates on Tuesday, we look at what some other analysts are saying. Perhaps, better late than never they are now understanding things I have been … Continue reading "The Mortgage Stress Traffic Accident Is Coming Into View!"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds, Damien Klassen. Where are the markets heading, and what are the chances there will be a policy mistake as rates are taken higher?
Another stroll through the latest property news with our insider Edwin Almeida. From listings to sales, and from the psychology of buyers and sellers, we cover it all…. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In the latest market update, we look at stronger economic data from the US driving inflation and FED rates higher. We also cover Europe, Asia and Australia. Risks seem elevated with regards to future market action! A wake-up call to Bulls? CONTENTS 0:00 Introduction1:30 Earnings and PEG6:24 PCE Read9:45 New Home Sales11:39 US Markets14:15 Oil … Continue reading "Amplified Concerns Signals Further Market Falls Ahead! [Podcast]"
The RBNZ Team lead by Adrian Orr was questioned in Parliament today, and we got more insight into the trajectory of rates, and the impact on households, with the debt servicing ratios set to rise higher than before the GFC! There was a sharp intake of breath! In addition, there was a concession to the … Continue reading "More Household Pain Predicted In New Zealand!"
An early chat with journalist Tarric Brooker this week as we answer viewer questions and share some charts. Timely – given all the data which is out just now. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the state of play relating to the Australian economy, housing and finances with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Where are interest rates headed, and what will the fall out be? Go to the Walk The World Universe at … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Leith van Onselen: Economics Now"
So the NASDAQ ended lower on Friday as megacap growth stocks came under pressure after Treasury yields pointed to higher interest rates as yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to their highest in more than a month following an auction on Thursday of 30-year bonds that saw weak demand. The yield on the … Continue reading "Reversing The January Effect [Podcast]"
The RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy, out today suggests inflation will run hotter for longer and real wages will continue to shrink into the foreseeable future. Some politicians are pushing for the Governor to resign as analysts lift their forward thinking on rates. But what is really going on? In short no one wants to … Continue reading "Everyone Blames Someone Else For This Mess!! [Podcast]"
While some market analysts are calling a significant rise as inflation is crushed, others are more negative, seeing a potential drop in the markets, before a pivot – but not for another year or so. Investment sentiment is out of line…. So, the question is, are further market falls likely? How low will corporate earnings … Continue reading "More Market Falls Are Definitely Possible! [Podcast]"
Something weird is afoot. There is much talk of falling inflation, moderating wages, record-low unemployment and possible soft landings. Yet some on Wall Street says 2023 will likely turn ugly. Sure, we had a beautiful January for investors – but what if this is only a mirage—a stock rally that’s already gone too far. Well, … Continue reading "Apocalypse Postponed?"
This is an edited edition of a live discussion with Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds And Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen as we look at the current market movements and what might be ahead. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au
My latest reflections on the problems facing prospective first-time buyers, as borrowing power is shrinking faster than prices, and expenditure measures work again being able to get into the market. Some are hoping for rates cuts soon, but that I doubt, though it is possible APRA will reduce the 3% buffer for some minor relief. … Continue reading "The First Time Buyers Dilemma [Podcast]"
Things remain in interesting territory for now as leading indicators are all over the show, and many are betting against the FED which has indicated it is not ready to even consider cutting interest rates any time soon, meantime the US Treasury may have other ideas… U.S. Treasury yields a year from now are forecast … Continue reading "Bonds Are Betting Against The Fed – And The Treasury? [Podcast]"
The Bank Of Canada lifted rates by a further 25 basis points overnight, to 4.5%, and they continue QT. But they say they will hold now and pause to assess the impact of the rises. In addition, they will start to publish minutes of their discussions, and also will hold losses on their accounts, rather … Continue reading "Up To 4.5% And Then Hold Says The Bank Of Canada! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party. In this show we will dissect the current financial system and consider how banking can be brought into line to serve the people, not profit from them. https://citizensparty.org.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Journalist Tarric Brooker and I chew over a range of audience questions in our Friday session today, from property prices and monetary policy to China demographics. Thanks to all those who sent in questions. Tell us what you think of this format. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-from-dfa-q-and-a-january-20th http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The once famous household savings buffers are being exhausted fast according to latest research. Given the higher mortgage rates and inflation, more households will struggle with cash flow, even as mortgage volumes fall – refinancing apart. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is a edited version of a live debate between Senator Gerard Rennick and Economist John Adams as we examine economic and monetary policy, debt, and the role of the RBA and other regulators. How can we improve the economic outcomes for Australia, and Australians? Who is to blame for high inflation and home prices? … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Senator Rennick Vs John Adams: The Ultimate Showdown"
In this week’s market update we as always start in the US, cross to Europe, Asia and end in Australia. Markets have started to look through the recession fears it seems, banking on the Fed slowing its rake hikes, and reversing later in 2023. Yet the signals are still mixed, and earnings are clearly under … Continue reading "Seeing The Financial Wood Amongst The Trees…! [Podcast]"
The ABS finally released their November 2022 New Lending stats today. Overall new loan commitments fell 3.7% in the month, and apart from refinancing, which hit a record, all other loan categories dropped to levels which in some cases were below pre-COVID levels. First time buyers were hit hard. More signals of a falling property … Continue reading "The Lending Worm Is Turning Now! [Podcast]"
US CPI came out pretty much as expected, with headline rates falling, thanks to significant falls in gas (petrol) prices at the pumps, despite rises in food and shelter costs. The markets lapped this up sending the indices mainly higher. along with gold, while bond yields and the US dollar slid. However, Fed officials were … Continue reading "Slower Rate Hikes After CPI? Maybe… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of my recent live discussion about my latest modelling and research. We had our postcode engine online. Original show here: https://youtu.be/6e-_h-DYeYU Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Any incoming data requires interpretation to make sense. And the truth is, factors like recency bias, expectations, and hopium can all influence how news is interpreted, and decisions made. We saw this on Friday when US markets read the data … Continue reading "Beware Data Is Not Neutral!"
This is an edited edition of my recent live show, where I discussed the outlook for 2023 investing with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments At Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another dose of reality from our Property Insider Edwin Almeida. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited and updated version of a show originally posted on “In The Interests Of The People”, with Economist John Adams and I discussing the current ASIC inquiry being run in the Senate. There were some answers provided last week to questions on notice about ASIC’s conduct in terms of trying to lobby … Continue reading "How Far Will The Contempt Go? [Podcast]"
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. “CONTENTS* 0:14 Introduction0:41 US Markets5:50 European And UK Markets7:40 Oil and Gold 8:16 Asian Markets9:30 PBOC Monetary Policy17:55 Japan19:13 Australian Markets22:45 Crypto25:50 Summary And Close Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Another Friday canter through Tarric’s latest slides, as we look at the disconnect between monetary policy and real life. Is Australia somehow different? Charts are here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-25th-november?sd=pf Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current property market with Veronica Morgan from Good Deeds and The Elephant in the Room Podcast. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with our property insider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. In another wild week, where FED speak on one hand, and hopium on the other drove markets all over the show, the Dow ended higher on Friday as investors weighed up further hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and the … Continue reading "The Market’s Twisted Hands…. [Podcast]"
A quick market update and a deep dive in the UK’s budget announcement, which was as political as it gets! The headline is households will go backwards, as unemployment rises, and a 2-year recession is likely. Worse, personal income tax bands are frozen, so the total tax take will be bigger than ever! Investment allowances … Continue reading "The Biggest Drop In Living Standards In Many Decades… [Podcast]"
We (Dale Webster and I) have written to the Senate Standing Committee on Regional and Rural Affairs and Transport about the economic fallout from the removal of in person banking services across Australia. Today I discuss this with Robbie Barwick from The Australian Citizens Party and the need to lobby Senate members on this important … Continue reading "Local Communities Strangled By Loss Of In-Person Banking – And What You Can Do About It! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current FTX debacle, the trajectory of Crypto, and the rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies. Is the future one of “harder, faster safer money”? https://www.youtube.com/c/AdamStokes24 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with our Property Insider, as prices in NSW get a kick-up from the stamp duty changes, China stops more migration and auctions are not what they seem. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Senator Rennick (LNP Queensland) after his recent outings in Senate Estimates and his speech on Superannuation. We explored the broader economic issues which we face, and why we need some different approaches from our regulators and the RBA. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ … Continue reading "Getting Better Economic Outcomes: With Senator Gerard Rennick [Podcast]"
Global stocks rallied on Friday for a second day on hopes cooler U.S. inflation would lead to less aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, an outlook that pushed the dollar to its biggest two-day drop in 13 years. On Wall Street, stocks rose to add to the prior day’s biggest daily percentage gains … Continue reading "Hope Springs Eternal (Minus Crypto) For Now… [Podcast]"
My latest chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we answer questions relating to inflation, on the day after the latest data from the US was lower than expected. So, we examine why that is, and what the implications may be. Sides available here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-11th-november Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited edition of a live discussion about the current state of the financial system and whether it’s fit for purpose featuring both John Adams, and also Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest listings numbers, the auction of 2022, and all the normal Monday stuff… https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Ricochet is defined as a glancing rebound (as of a projectile off a flat surface). And in the markets, we are seeing that in spades at the moment. So, in this week’s market review we will as normal start in … Continue reading "Operation Ricochet! [Podcast]"
The Bank of England raised interest rates by the most since 1989 on Thursday but warned investors that the risk of Britain’s longest recession in at least a century means borrowing costs are likely to rise less than they expect. The BoE increased Bank Rate to 3% from 2.25% and warned that the British economy … Continue reading "The Central Bank Rate Rise Pass The Parcel Continues… [Podcast]"
The RBA released their latest Statement On Monetary Policy, which contained a higher forecast inflation rate, and a lower growth forecast, out beyond 2024. Their revisions to growth are down again, while rates would have to be higher for longer. Compared with other Central Banks, the RBA is being too timid which will mean more … Continue reading "The RBA’s Too Slow Moves Are Extending And Embedding Inflation! [Podcast]"
I discuss the fallout from the RBA rate hikes with Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar. We look at strategies to alleviate the pain of higher rates, the risks within some approaches and the broader issues of negative equity and mortgage prisoners. Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience … Continue reading "The Rates Are Beginning To Bite: With Steve Mickenbecker [Podcast]"
As Central Bank Rate Fest rolls on from the RBA on Tuesday, as expected the FED lifted the US interest rate target by 75 basis points overnight and reaffirmed continued hikes ahead. Later tonight we will get the Bank of England announcement, which is also expected to hike big. The Fed’s unanimous decision lifted the … Continue reading "Fed Signals Higher For Longer And Markets Crater! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state household finances, property and financial stress, based on our updated modelling to end October 2022. Our postcode engine will be online. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Superannuation system is not fit for purpose, as many are finding out as balances decline, while fees do not but forced contributions increase. So today we look at data provided by APRA on fund performance (down more than 4% in the quarter to June 2022, and further now). And we feature an important contribution … Continue reading "Superannuation: Trick Or Treat? [Podcast]"
Another rant from our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at some of the property auctions in Western Sydney, including some where there was a real crowd, and others where there were no bids. We also look at the latest from China, the listings down the east coast and another tip for prospective buyers. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
AUSTRALIA’S banking regulator APRA is picking and choosing which banks it is allowing to get away with breaking the law by misreporting whether their sites offer cash service provided by a teller according to an important article in The Regional. Kudos once again to Dale Webster for highlighting this important issue. Errors in hundreds of … Continue reading "APRA And The Mystery Of The Disappearing Branches! [Podcast]"
On Friday there was a robust, broad-based rally across Wall Street as markets looked over more encouraging economic data and a sunnier earnings outlook. This despite the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. The FOMC decision is widely expecting a unanimous vote for at least one last major rate increase, though with the Fed’s … Continue reading "Is The Tech Bloodbath Really Over?"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. We look at the latest charts, and discuss where things are going. You can see the charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-28th-october-2022 Tarric’s upcoming event is here: https://cloud.go.pepperstone.com/pepp-talks-melb-nov-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The news continues to confuse, as Wall Street contended with another volatile session. Investors mulled the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate hikes while assessing mixed economic data and a slew of earnings reports, whilst the ECB doubled official deposit rate, and Credit Suisse revealed their plans to revamp their business. At the end of the … Continue reading "Playing The Inflation Game… [Podcast]"
The latest from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest property listings, the China factor, and sub-room divisions. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA has lifted the cash rate by 2.5% and more rate hikes are expected in the months ahead as they try to head off inflation. The budget on Tuesday is expected to show inflation is expected to peak at around 8%, but stay above their target range of 2-3% right into 2024, with no … Continue reading "The RBA Has No Idea About Home Price Falls! [Podcast]"
In this week’s market review we highlight once again the volatility in the markets. The fear gauge in the US is sitting at around 30, and still signals more uncertainty ahead. It is worth remembering that such massive swings are being harvested by the algo’s and big financial players who are able to trade on … Continue reading "Lemmings Running From Ups To Downs And Back Again! [Podcast]"
New Zealand Household Finances Are Being impacted by the change in interest rates and falls in property prices as inflation continues to bite. The trouble is though these aggregate numbers do not really tell the true story. Whilst we do not run our surveys in New Zealand, we think the parallel with Australia would tell … Continue reading "New Zealand Household Finances Under The Microscope… [Podcast]"
Once again, volatility continues to surge, as the S&P 500 gave up gains on Thursday driven by rising Treasury yields despite the bulk of quarterly results suggesting corporate America is in better shape than feared. Recession fears are growing. More broadly the stresses and strains are showing across UK Politics, Oil, and Investment Banking, so … Continue reading "The Wild Rides Continue… [Podcast]"
The latest data from New Zealand, the UK and Canada highlights how embedded higher food prices are, something which also came through in recent ABS figures. Even if petrol prices slide a little (and OPEC+ is trying to reverse that), many households will be wilting under the pressure from everyday costs of living. And it’s … Continue reading "Food Inflation Still Haunts The Halls… [Podcast]"
The ABS data today was a bit of a shock, compared with expectations, as the data indicated a slowing of the employment market. Some of this could be just a Numberwang though. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia/sep-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Latest US data shows housing starts is falling, as mortgage rates rise. One reason what the markets slide on Wednesday. Ahead, expectations of future earnings are down – just another reason to expect weaker markets, as bond yields continue to track higher. The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively … Continue reading "The US Housing Market Is Cooling… [Podcast]"
This is an edited edition of my live discussion about the current state of the property market, with Mortgage Broker Chris Bates from wealthful.com.au
My latest Monday evening chat with our property insider, Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest numbers, so unusual properties for sale, and discuss that landlords and tenants need to consider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A short segment where I answer some of the top questions from my inbox relating to the current property dynamics in Australia. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. So much to kick around, with the help of some powerful slides which are available athttps://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-14th-october-2022 Housing prices falls: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/aussie-housing-prices-on-course-for US Core Inflation: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/2008-vs-2022-inflation-really-is Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market review we will as always begin in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end up with a local Australian summary – bearing in mind that our market pretty slavishly follows those in the Northern Hemisphere, which had an up day on Thursday, and a down day on Friday. Volatility … Continue reading "Your Super Savings Are Shrinking! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current economic outlook with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at Nucleus Wealth and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Links to upcoming events: Meet the Managers Forum Wednesday 19/10/22 6:30-8pm: Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
When JPMorgan Chase & Co Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said the United States and the global economy could tip into a recession by the middle of the next year, its time to adopt the brace position. “These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — … Continue reading "Plan For More Falls Ahead… [Podcast]"
Edwin is back for another property rant, and we extend our discussion to Melbourne and Brisbane property as well as Sydney. So much happening. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is my edit of a discussion I had today about the Property Market as part of an online event run by Greg Owen from Goko which included Harry Dent, Peter Schiff, Gerald Celente and Robert Kiyosaki. I discuss the current property market, how we got here, and what may happen next. Go to the … Continue reading "My Thoughts On The Property Market [Podcast]"
This is our latest weekly market review, in what was another wild ride. So now we know. The Dow skidded on Friday, as a stronger-than-expected monthly jobs report quelled hopes of a Fed pivot and shifted investor focus to the prospect of another jumbo-sized rate hike next month. The U.S. economy created 263,000 jobs last … Continue reading "More Falls Shake The Market… [Podcast]"
Latest from the markets continue to show weakness, and the latest came from the IMF which will down forecast growth – and recession is a rising risk. We are ships in choppy waters… We are in a world of more fragility. And more from Fed member saying rates must continue to rise. Markets still need … Continue reading "Hanging Off Every Signal… [Podcast]"
The RBA released their Financial Stability Report today and provided a worrying insight into household finances. Rate rises and large mortgages are having an impact, plus pressure on builders is rising. We look at some of their analysis. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The RBA released their Financial Stability Report today and provided a worrying insight into household finances. Rate rises and large mortgages are having an impact, plus pressure on builders is rising. We look at some of their analysis. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I discuss the latest rate moves with Steve from Canstar. Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, insurance, mortgages, banking, credit cards, investment, … Continue reading "Wither Rates Now? With Steve Mickenbecker [Podcast]"
In today’s market update we look at the ongoing volatility hitting the markets at the moment – as part of the October Effect. Wall Street stocks closed lower on Wednesday, unable to sustain a late-day surge, after data showing strong U.S. labor demand again suggested the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. … Continue reading "Oil Be Seeing You … Later! [Podcast]"
In today’s market update we look at the ongoing volatility hitting the markets at the moment – as part of the October Effect. Wall Street stocks closed lower on Wednesday, unable to sustain a late-day surge, after data showing strong U.S. labor demand again suggested the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. … Continue reading "Oil Be Seeing You … Later! [Podcast]"
The Markets are starting to believe Central Banks are going to blink – as we saw yesterday when the RBA lift the cash rate by a less than expected 0.25% – though as I said one smaller rate rise does not a pivot make. The S&P 500 index posted its biggest single-day rally in two … Continue reading "The Market Grabs At Straws… [Podcast]"
The Markets are starting to believe Central Banks are going to blink – as we saw yesterday when the RBA lift the cash rate by a less than expected 0.25% – though as I said one smaller rate rise does not a pivot make. The S&P 500 index posted its biggest single-day rally in two … Continue reading "The Market Grabs At Straws… [Podcast]"
I discuss the recent RBA rate change with Peter from Mozo. What is happening to mortgage and savings rates and what may happen next? Peter Marshall has been working in the Australian banking and finance industry for over 20 years and oversees Mozo’s extensive product database. He is regularly sought out for his expert commentary … Continue reading "When Is A Pivot, Not A Pivot? With Peter Marshall [Podcast]"
I discuss the recent RBA rate change with Peter from Mozo. What is happening to mortgage and savings rates and what may happen next? Peter Marshall has been working in the Australian banking and finance industry for over 20 years and oversees Mozo’s extensive product database. He is regularly sought out for his expert commentary … Continue reading "When Is A Pivot, Not A Pivot? With Peter Marshall [Podcast]"
The Reserve Bank of NZ lifted the cash rate another 0.5% to tackle inflation – and is taking a different tack to the RBA, where home prices are falling faster. Expect high rates and more falls ahead, in both countries. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The Reserve Bank of NZ lifted the cash rate another 0.5% to tackle inflation – and is taking a different tack to the RBA, where home prices are falling faster. Expect high rates and more falls ahead, in both countries. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the property market, and household financial stress. Links to upcoming events: Petition Branch Closures: https://www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/EN4244 (ends 6th October) Meet the Managers Forum Wednesday 19/10/22 6:30-8pm:https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-managers-tickets-410294761677?aff=wtw to register. World Renegade Summit: https://gokogroup.com/mne 9th October 2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Household Scenarios And Stress Update [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the property market, and household financial stress. Links to upcoming events: Petition Branch Closures: https://www.aph.gov.au/e-petitions/petition/EN4244 (ends 6th October) Meet the Managers Forum Wednesday 19/10/22 6:30-8pm:https://www.eventbrite.com/e/meet-the-managers-tickets-410294761677?aff=wtw to register. World Renegade Summit: https://gokogroup.com/mne 9th October 2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Household Scenarios And Stress Update [Podcast]"
After the rout of September, sorry to break this to you, but stock markets historically have experienced well-above-average volatility in October. It’s often a spooky month for stocks and several of the greatest crashes in stock market history have occurred during the month, including ‘Black Tuesday’ and ‘Black Thursday’ in 1929, as well as ‘Black … Continue reading "The October Effect… [Podcast]"
My latest Friday afternoon yarn with Journalist Tarric Brooker (@AvidCommentator on Twitter). We look at the latest ructions in the markets and ask what is going to happen next – what is below the waterline, with the help if Tarrric’s slides. Copies of the slides can be found at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-30th-september Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "But Its Just The Tip Of The Iceberg: With Tarric Brooker [Podcast]"
Dale Webster from The Regional And Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party discuss the war on cash with me , and specifically the removal of branch and cash infrastructure, especially in regional areas. https://www.theregional.com.au/post/bank-petition-chance-to-send-a-strong-message-to-canberra The Regional is an independent news service for 37 per cent of Australia’s population (and growing)! Dale has been tracking regional … Continue reading "The Banks Are The Aggressors In The War On Cash! [Podcast]"
So, after this latest rate hike, the Fed has now lifted its benchmark rate by 300 basis points, or 3% in just six months as the central bank accelerates policy to restrictive territory with the aim of slowing growth enough to make a meaningful dent in inflation. “We can’t fail to do that,” he said, … Continue reading "Forget The FED Pivot – And Housing Price Falls Won’t Stop Them Either! [Podcast]"
This past week was momentous, as Central Banks continued to lift rates in an attempt to crush inflation. A half dozen central banks, including in the United States, Britain, Sweden, Switzerland and Norway, delivered rate hikes this week to fight inflation, but it was the Fed’s signal that it expects high U.S. rates to last … Continue reading "Bears Are Showing Their Teeth: Be Clear, Markets Have Further To Fall! [Podcast]"
More than 90 Central Banks have now lifted rates, more than half by at least 75 basis points in one go this year. Last night the UK lifted by 0.5% and we look at their outlook, as more channel Paul Volcker who is widely acknowledged as the premier inflation fighter in Federal Reserve history. When … Continue reading "Rate Hikes To Infinity And Beyond… [Podcast]"
This is an edited edition of live discussion about the current state of the markets with Tony Locatro, Perth based Investment Manager with Alto Capital. We will pick apart the latest movements and consider the implications for wealth protection and growth. Tony specialises in the small cap sector. https://www.altocapital.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Tony Locantro: Get Real Market Update"
The logic I hear all the time is the RBA won’t let home prices fall too far because of the financial stability risk consequences. But that view might be plain wrong. First the RBA has lifted rates by 2.25 percentage points since May, and markets expect the cash rate to reach 3.3 per cent by … Continue reading "Has The RBA Greenlit Home Price Falls?"
My Monday chat with Edwin, which covers the latest numbers of property listings in Sydney, and our discussion is packed with insights about the market, and potential future trajectory. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
As foreshadowed, we are now seeing the sharp reversal in asset prices, which were driven through the roof due to ultra-low interest rates, central bank quantitative easing, and government support through COVID plus huge debt growth. Of course, the recent gains were largely spurious, and a correction was always going to come – hopefully some … Continue reading "Here Comes The Wealth Destruction… [Podcast]"
The RBA was interrogated by Parliament today regarding its monetary policy stance and interest rates. But it was all a bit pointless as really the Federal Reserve sets interest rates in the US, but effectively also for the entire world, given the fact that the US dollar behaves as the reserve currency. Persistently high inflation … Continue reading "The Monetary Arms Race Is Here!"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. We look at the latest data and discuss the implications. His charts are at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-16th-september Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The ABS released their latest data on the labour market today, and it was not quite what was expected by the markets. In fact the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.5 per cent in August 2022, according to the ABS. The key reason for the rise in unemployment was the 0.2% lift in the … Continue reading "Is Employment On The Turn? [Podcast]"
A broad sell-off sent U.S. stocks reeling on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report dashed hopes that the Federal Reserve could relent and scale back its policy tightening in the coming months. This is the last inflation report before the Fed’s policy meeting next week. Investors had hoped the Fed would have some reason to … Continue reading "On A Recession Doorstep… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of the Brisbane property market with Meighan Wells, the Principal of Property Pursuit and co-founder of the Home Buyer Academy and co-presenter of Your First Home Buyer Guide Podcast. In recognition of her expertise and high standards in the fast-growing buyer’s agency … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Brisbane Property Market Update With Meighan Wells [Podcast]"
An important discussion about the games banks are playing in relation to the setting of deposit interest rates, in the context of the RBA rate hikes. Steve Mickenbecker from Canstar and I explore the elements which are driving returns lower than they should be, and what we can do about it. Another case of the … Continue reading "The Deposit Rate Plot Thickens: With Steve Mickenbecker [Podcast]"
The latest from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest coverage of property, numbers, and trends. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Queensland has been a state where property investors have traditionally made better returns on a net and gross basis, from investment property in the state, compared with those in New South Wales and Victoria. To recap, gross investment returns is the ratio of current property market value compared with the current rental paid, assuming the … Continue reading "A Taxing Time For Queensland Investors… [Podcast]"
In this show we do a deeper dive into the ABS Census data series and examine the distribution and location of vacant property as defined by the census. We highlight the post codes with the highest counts and their distribution. We have mapped the results and added them to our Core Market Model. Go to … Continue reading "More On The Unoccupied Housing Question… [Podcast]"
In this week’s market review we explore the fragile upswing in the second half of the week, which can best be understood as a positioning by speculators, betting on a falling market, typically seen as part of a bear market rally sequence, then anything substantive. I believe the markets are still not fully factoring the … Continue reading "Speculators Let Rip As Central Banks Talk Up Higher Rates… [Podcast]"
We had a series of important events this week which really underscored for me some of the central questions about inflation, inflation targeting and Central Bank policy. So today I want to explore this in more detail, as the ECB lifted rates by 75 basis points and the Dow closed higher on Thursday after struggling … Continue reading "Here Comes Higher Rates, But… [Podcast]"
I caught up with Steve from Canstar to discuss the fallout from the RBA rate rises. Steve Mickenbecker is in Canstar’s Group Executive Team, bringing more than 30 years of experience in the Australian financial services industry. As a financial commentator for Canstar, Steve enjoys sharing his expertise across topics such as home loans, superannuation, … Continue reading "After The RBA Deluge: What Next? With Steve Mickenbecker [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of the property markets. We look at recent price falls, as well as the latest from our modelling, including information at a post code level. And of course review today’s RBA decision. Warning, this show might run for longer than normal! Thanks … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Property And Stress Data Now [Podcast]"
My latest chat with Edwin as we discuss politicians and their property portfolios, as first time buyers feel the pressure, and mortgage prisoners are a things. We also discuss some of the strategies to make sure agents are working for you. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Cameron as he republishes his book from 2017 Game of Mates: How favours bleed the nation as Rigged “How Networks Of Powerful Mates Rip Off Everyday Australians”. This book will open your eyes to how Australia really works. It’s not good news, but you need to know it.’ – Ross Gittins … Continue reading "Inside The Tent: How Power Really Works… With Cameron Murray [Podcast]"
As I discussed in a recent post Australia is starting to look at a Central Bank Digital Currency programme, with a focus on retail customers. The design parameters and business case are yet to emerge, and I hope there will be considerable consultation around privacy, free choice and the continued used of cash. Around the … Continue reading "The Digital Currency Battle… [Podcast]"
This past week has seen a significant shift in market sentiment, driven off the back of hawkish tones from Jackson Hole, as Central Bankers underscored that squashing inflation was their main task, whatever the cost. Markets had been betting on a Fed Pivot soon (recalling the last cycle where markets had their way and the … Continue reading "Bye-Bye Pivot: Market Update 3rd September 2022 [Podcast]"
Our latest Friday afternoon chat, picking over the latest charts, which are telling a confusing story, as Central Banks continue to hike into a head wind. How will this play out? You can get Tarric’s charts here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-2nd-september and follow him on Twitter @Avidcommentator Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
John Adams is a complex creature, and there is much to tell about his recent quest. Having delivered “the package” which is potentially life-changing, we will in future shows begin the great reveal. This is a scene setting short show, ahead of the main event! Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The markets are now sliding into September – always a weak month, and seasoned investors like Jeremy Grantham are calling it, more slides ahead. When you look at what the FED has said, it is highly likely – that is until (if) they change track (again). Until then, there is simply nowhere to hide. Note, … Continue reading "Oh September! Just The Start And Nowhere To Hide… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of the markets with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments At Walk The World Fund and Nucleus Wealth. Original version here: https://youtu.be/aaP7GdRicKA Energy discussion here: https://youtu.be/4AhEaWqOpAU Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Edwin and I was joined by WA Property Manager Rob, to look at what is happening in the West, as well as our normal chat about the latest numbers, and a stunning example of development which you will simply not believe. Plus some property related pet tips. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
In today’s market review we are going to focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole, just 9 minutes in length but enough to move the markets down significantly. For the Fed’s monetary policies to have any effect, markets must transmit them via the financial conditions to the actual economy. And the Fed … Continue reading "Prepare For A September Crash! [Podcast]"
The UK just announced an 80% hike in average energy bill to households, with a further rise expected in January. This is putting millions of people under financial pressure, and unable to eat and heat themselves through the winter. Worth reflecting on the cause – the hike in gas prices, and the fact that we … Continue reading "Eye Watering Energy Bills Are Coming… [Podcast]"
Is the US in recession or not? Well the “official figures” are unsure, and despite the inverted yield curve (2-10) you can still argue there is no recession, which gives latitude to the Fed to hike further and faster. We may hear something about this at Jackson Hole, the Central Bankers’ love-in! Go to the … Continue reading "No Recession: For Now? [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of our live discussion about the current state of Superannuation, the the financial system. Who is it working for? The original streeam is here: https://youtu.be/saS_fOF2XyI Robert Barwick is the Research Director – Australian Citizens Party. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Property insider Edwin Almeida joins me for another property related chat, as we move towards the start of the spring season. Some are saying the markets are turning, but we explore what is really going on as listing continue to rise, and more are expected to arrive on book soon. Also we look at a … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
As expected, the Dow snapped a four-week win streak on Friday, as investors paused their bullish bets on stocks amid fears that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could push back against the idea of a dovish pivot at his Bankers Fest at Jackson Hole next week. It was a decisive pivot that snapped the longest … Continue reading "Welcome To The Twilight Zone… [Podcast]"
My latest chat with Tarric Brooker, @AvidCommentator on Twitter. His charts are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-19th-august-2022 The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of economics with Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist at the Nucleus Wealth and a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest chat about property focused on migration increasing, as announced by the Government over the weekend, and the impact on the markets – especially the rental sector. Plus of course Edwin’s regular updates on Sydney stats, and latest news. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
JPMorgan holds tens of billions of dollars in gold in vaults in London, New York and Singapore. It is one of four clearing members of the London market, where global gold prices are set by buying and selling metal held in a few London vaults — including JPMorgan’s and the Bank of England’s. JPMorgan is … Continue reading "Man Versus Machine: A Glimpse into The Fixed World Of Gold [Podcast]"
The UK is an object lesson in stupidity as energy prices go higher and bills to households more than double in a few short months. Some are threatening to start a payment strike, as people will be forced to trade off heating versus eating. But we in Australia are, according to the recent RBA Statement, … Continue reading "Energy Bills: You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!… [Podcast]"
A remarkable division has emerged between those calling we have passed the bottom in the current stock market cycle, and those who say we are right in the middle of a bear market rally which will peter out before a further, and significantly deeper fall ahead. Why? Because on one hand recent results from many … Continue reading "Are We There Yet? [Podcast]"
I discussed the latest macro with Steve Van Metre, from the US. What are the current market signals saying: how will it play out? Steven Van Metre, Certified Financial Planner™ Professional, (CA Insurance License #0D45202 & Investment Advisory Representative with Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisory firm.) is a financial planner, portfolio manager, … Continue reading "A Message For You – From The Bond Market: With Steve Van Metre [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of property with Veronica Morgan. Original stream here: https://youtu.be/UUxirTjEUbM Veronica Morgan is principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers and co-host of Location Location Location Australia & Relocation Relocation Australia on the Lifestyle Channel. She also co-hosts The Elephant In The Room Podcast, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Veronica Morgan: Property Now [Podcast]"
I caught up with Financial Sector veteran Roger Brown to discuss the rise and fall of Australian property, and the agencies responsible for the mess we are in. Roger sheets much of the blame on APRA, plus poor policy from the RBA and Treasury. The net effect is the disenfranchisement of younger households, and the … Continue reading "What A Fine Pickle We Are In: With Roger Brown [Podcast]"
Latest from Edwin our property insider. This tip of the week today is gold. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market review, we examine the curious relationship between updated economic data, and the markets. And I conclude, Up is Down. We start with the US markets, look across Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, as well as covering the latest in Oil and Metals, and a quick look at Crypto. It … Continue reading "Up Is Down, And Down Is Up! [Podcast]"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker about economics, monetary police and social trends. His charts are available to view at https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-5th-august-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of economics and politics, with a focus on the busted energy markets with David Llewelln-Smith Chief Strategist at @NucleusWealth and founding publisher and editor for @Macro_business. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Original stream and chat here: https://youtu.be/4AhEaWqOpAU
My latest Monday evening chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest from China, consider the rise in chickens at Edwin’s place, and reflect on the resignation of a Building Reform champion. Plus the latest on the numbers, and a discussion on land banking. And you can play spot the pussy … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
In this week’s market review in what was a chaotic week, we look at how the financial markets reacted to bad news on inflation, and rising target rates from Central Banks, and solid earnings from tech megacaps which brought some solace to traders though worries about recession risk remain. After Thursday’s data showed the U.S. … Continue reading "Things Just Got Complicated… [Podcast]"
This is a first take on the latest results from our models, which shows a further rise in mortgage and rental stress (defined in cash flow terms) across Australia. We examine the high-level results by state, segment and post code, and also present the latest stress heat maps, which highlight the growth of pressure in … Continue reading "First Take: Mortgage Stress July 2022 [Podcast]"
We unpick the “supply-side” problems which are often blamed for high home prices, and in the light of a recent report, find that Land Banking is a significant issue, as large players hold on to land parcels to exploit prices rises. This means you cannot solve affordability by changing planning rules! In addition, there is … Continue reading "Land Banking Is Part Of The Housing Problem!"
We are coming to the pointy end of the action now, with the Nasdaq closing lower on Monday after a choppy session for U.S. equities ahead of a big week of technology earnings reports while oil prices rose and treasury yields edged higher as investors braced for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The S&P … Continue reading "Crunch Time Approaches… [Podcast]"
Edwin Almeida, our Property Insider joins us through another ramble through the latest property news, including rooster cam, news from China, and the latest in listings numbers. We also look at the latest articles and consider the impact of the recent rains on high-rise property in particular. Go to the Walk The World Universe at … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
We look at the latest data as forecasters indicate a rise in mortgage rates as the RBA tackles inflation, leads to reduced lending, and risks of stagflation or recession. Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand … Continue reading "Higher Rates, And Risk Of Recession, As Weaker Lending Is Expected [Podcast]"
It started as an act of protest by fed-up apartment buyers in a single project in a city in central China. Now tens of thousands of people around the country are withholding payments on their mortgages for homes that developers, including China Evergrande Group, have yet to finish. The movement has since spread to at … Continue reading "Households Hit Hard By The Property Crash! [Podcast]"
One characteristic of a Bear market are relief rallies, which start strong, but which also eventually run out of steam. We have seen this during the week, as a gauge of global stocks fell on Friday to end the trading week on a down note after five straight sessions of gains. In addition, the dollar … Continue reading "The Bear Market Is Not Over – Yet! [Podcast]"
The ECB joins the rate rise club, with a 50 basis point hike – which was bigger than expected by the markets. They expect inflation to hang around, and they expect further normalization ahead. So this marks the end of the negative interest rate experiment, other than in Japan, Denmark and Sweden. Banks will see … Continue reading "The ECB Joins The Mega Rate Hike Club! [Podcast]"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, in which we explore home price dynamics, politics, and much more besides. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-22nd-july-2022 for copies of the slides. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/rising-rates-and-australias-over Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We know rates are going up, even the RBA confirms this, and now our new Prime Minister has stepped in saying the Central Bank needs to be careful. So what’s going on? Today’s post is brought to you by Ribbon Property Consultants. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not … Continue reading "How Independent Is The RBA Really? [Podcast]"
The released terms of reference for the review of the RBA are limited, and specifically excludes APRA – thus credit creation, and omits reference to the Council of Financial Regulators, the peak influential body, which includes RBA, APRA, ASIC and Treasury. Thus while the focus on the board, culture, and objectives are laudable, the terms … Continue reading "Operation Damp Squib… [Podcast]"
I discuss the creation of Kiwi Bank, a National Bank In New Zealand with one of its architects Hon Matt Robson. Matt Robson’s commercial experience began in the Netherlands thirty years ago, working in the oil industry. This introduced him to the rigours of international commerce, budgets, deadlines, understanding complex commercial operations and structures, it … Continue reading "Making Banking Work… For People! [Podcast]"
You may well remember the previous Treasurer trumpeting on about the $250 billion dollars of household savings which we have over 2020 and 21. And Phil Lowe recently quoted a similar figure in one speech, though on the ABC 7:30 seemed to lower it to 200bn. Those buffers came from multiple sources, including JobKeeper, other … Continue reading "The Mystery Of The Disappearing Buffers… [Podcast]"
I am joined by Robbie Barwick from the Australian Citizens Party to discuss a critical policy area, ahead of the new Parliament sitting next week. We want to make sure the politicians are aware of the benefits of a National Postal Bank, and how you can help to raise that awareness. Flyer: https://citizensparty.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-06/flyer-australia-needs-a-public-post-office-bank-citizens-party-june-22.pdf MP contact … Continue reading "Get Behind This Economic Solution… [Podcast]"
We look at the latest from China, cheap food, more listings, and unions in the Real Estate sector with our property insider Edwin Almeida. And we ask what’s wackier than a conspiracy theory, and look at “Frictional Unemployment…” https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon and his Morgan Stanley counterpart, James Gorman, both said Thursday that they aren’t steering their firms toward shelter even as they see a confluence of global events denting the economy in the months ahead. “The consumer right now is in great shape,” Dimon said on a … Continue reading "Tight Credit Markets Hits Banking’s Big Beasts… [Podcast]"
Following the Reserve Bank’s double rate hike, big banks have lifted all their variable mortgage rates by 0.5 percentage points. As a result, the average variable borrower will have seen their rate rise by 1.25 percentage points since the start of May. That means someone with a $500,000 mortgage, with 25 years remaining, will see … Continue reading "The Property Crash Is Just Getting Started.. [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion about the current state of the markets with Investment Manager Tony Locantro from Alto Capital, in Perth. https://www.altocapital.com.au/ Original stream and chat: https://youtu.be/8G-RnSdcgOg Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
We look at the latest ABS data as unemployment hits the lowest since 1974. That said, hours worked fell, despite the growth in jobs, and more were on the bench because of illness. Question now is whether higher wages growth will follow. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Stocks wobbled but ultimately ended lower on Wednesday, as the fastest pace of inflation in decades stoked bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to deliver a much larger than expected 1% rate hike later this year.The S&P 500 closed down 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, or 208 points, the Nasdaq … Continue reading "The Inflation Monster Runs Free…. [Podcast]"
I discuss a recent RBA release about correspondence between the Treasurer and RBA about risks from derivatives. While the focus of the letters is superannuation, there are wider issues at play here, as I explore with Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Our latest property-related chat with Edwin Almeida, our property insider as we look at the latest from China in terms of new migrants, listing numbers, real estate agent behaviour, and the shape of the market. And we have Edwin’s latest hot tip. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In recent years we have seen a swathe of “initiatives” from state and federal governments with the aim to encouraging and helping more first-time buyers into the housing market. The previous Government claimed they had helped “hundreds of thousands” into the property market. The latest ABS statistics shows that the number of First Time Buyers … Continue reading "The Big Lie About First Homeowner Grants… [Podcast]"
Well, those following my channel over recent years will know that I have been quite skeptical of Crypto wave, and while Crypto has gone through several major drops in its history, this time could be different. I was not impressed with so called celebrities starting spruiking them, including Kim Kardashian, but when financial mainstream started … Continue reading "This Crypto Winter May Not Turn To Spring! [Podcast]"
There was an outstanding piece from John Authers this week arguing that the Age of Credibility for Central Banks Is over as Inflation blunders have destroyed the trust that’s anchored the global financial system since the end of the gold standard. Certainly, in Australia, the RBA has been on shaky ground for many years, including … Continue reading "After Central Banks – What? [Podcast]"
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, until recently among the central bank’s most dovish policymakers, said on Friday he “fully” supports another 75-basis-point rate rise later this month. Speaking later on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams did not specify if he favors a half point or three-quarter point increase at the Fed’s upcoming … Continue reading "The Recession Obsession… [Podcast]"
My latest chat on a Friday afternoon with Journalist Tarric Brooker, covering the latest economic and financial news, courtesy of his famous slides. https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-8th-july-2022 You can follow him on Twitter @AvidCommentator Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the markets with Chris Bates from Wealthful, on the day the RBA will lift rates again. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
While the technical definition of a recession traditionally is two quarters of contraction or negative growth, I think that definition is frankly irrelevant given where we are today. You simply have to look at the trends in consumer confidence, which are ultra-low in many western countries, from Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US. … Continue reading "The Disappearing Money Trick – Or Why The Recession Is Already Here! [Podcast]"
In our latest Monday Rant we look at the latest from our Wee-Chatters, the latest numbers, and “innovative” property solutions, as rate rise and pressure on households build. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Neo-Bank Volt has closed its doors and is returning deposits to its customers and selling its mortgage book. We look at why this happened, and whether other banks are at risk in this rising rate environment. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Apologies to our podcast users, we have had technical issues which stopped us posting – now fixed. We will upload archive recordings when we can! In today’s show, we review the weeks market action, starting in the US – by far the most influential market, followed by Europe, Asia and Australia. There is no place … Continue reading "No Escape! Recession Will Destroy Wealth. Period. [Podcast]"
The latest from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest market dynamics, price movements, and gossip from China. Things are getting, well interesting. And we also discuss mold in property and stamp duty and other levies relating to new construction. A packed show. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant! [Podcast]"
My latest Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker @AvidCommentator on Twitter. We look at the latest economic and financial news, and consider the consequences. Tarric’s slides are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-10th-june-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In my latest Monday evening chat with our property insider, we look at a weird rental property, examine property price falls in the The Shire, and check the latest stats, as well as the latest from the we-chat sources. And will the RBA shift rates up a little or a lot? https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant [Podcast]"
This is an edited edition of our latest live show as I discuss the property market with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
My latest Friday afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker who is @AvidCommentator on Twitter. In today’s show we look at Australian Housing, the drivers of inflation, and the limitations of Central Bank policy. The slides can be found at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-27th-may-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I look over the election results, and consider the impact on property, examine the latest from China, and the market trends. What will be done to try and “save” the property market now? Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest outing with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest from our Wechat chatters, the numbers, which go on rising, and the housing policies from the main parties. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. In our weekly review, we reflect on a chaotic week in the markets, from stocks, to crypto, even as stocks rallied at the end of the week in financial markets thanks to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s reassurance that bigger … Continue reading "The Whipsaw Market Weekly Update [Podcast]"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker @Avidcommentator on Twitter. We review the latest economic data and consider the strategic implications. Tarric’s charts are available at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-13th-may-2022 Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An edited version of my live discussion with Edwin, our property insider, ahead of the the RBA cash rate decision tomorrow. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An unscripted discussion with my friend George about the upcoming election, and what is going on below the waterline. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this week’s market review we look at the action around the world, starting in the US, Europe Asia and Australia, and looking at Gold, Oil and Crypto in passing. The news is not good, for those believing in a return to Bull markets, supported by a Fed Put. Actually, with inflation running hard, Central … Continue reading "Leaky Boats – After A Bruising April: May May? [Podcasts]"
Those following my channel will know of the modelling which shows the strong link between credit availability and home prices. We know that when credit is tight, and the rate of change in credit is negative, home prices fall. And we are seeing this in spades now in New Zealand. So today I want to … Continue reading "New Zealand Credit Falls Off A Cliff – Home Prices Will Follow! [Podcast]"
We look at how the changes in China’s economy might impact Australia. Although Q1 GDP data was better than expected, some analysts are predicting that Q2 may be less forgiving. One clue is the rising unemployment rate in 31 major cities in China. A key question is how much China’s government can offset decelerating growth … Continue reading "Australia And The China Factor! [Podcast]"
In this week’s market summary, we as usual start in the US, cover Europe and Asia and end up in Australia. This is because the US market trends drive other markets, like it or not. No market is an island – especially Australia. Now, back in 2018, when the Fed was conducting quantitative tightening and … Continue reading "Shock: U-Turn If You Want To! [Podcast]"
Edwin visited me in the DFA studio today for our weekly property chat. We discussed the political ball game around property, news from China about migration to Australia, and how to react to the latest market information. Is there a path to higher home prices ahead? Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Let’s face it, the rampant rise in Oil prices, is a big headache for politicians around the world, as the lift in prices is driving inflation. Just remember Oil was already on the up BEFORE Ukraine kicked off. And if you are going to make an unpopular policy change, when better than later Friday before … Continue reading "The Inflation Noose Drives Policy Reversal! [Podcast]"
In my latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist and Chart hoarder extraordinaire Tarric Brooker we parse the latest data and conclude that the next crisis has already started. We question the quality of the current political dialogue, the role of Central Banks, the relationship between interest rates and inflation, and so much more… We had … Continue reading "The Next Crisis Has Arrived! With Tarric Brooker [Podcast]"
We examine the role of the Bank of Mum and Dad, in the light of the latest data. As well as highlighting inter-generational issues, there are pressures on both parents and their kids. And if you do not have “wealthy” parents the chances of getting into the property market is diminished significantly. Go to the … Continue reading "The Bank Of Mum And Dad Is Getting Strangled! [Podcast]"
This is an edited version my latest live show, as I I explore the latest in Brisbane Property with Meighan Wells, with a special focus on flooding issues. We covered pricing, structural issues, insurance and more. As the Principal of Property Pursuit and co-founder of the Home Buyer Academy and co-presenter of Your First Home … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Flood Special Meighan Wells: Brisbane Property Highlights [Podcast]"
More from our Property Insider, Edwin Almeida. In today’s show we look at lock-downs in China, the latest auction and listings, and the current property market slowdown. In addition we somehow got onto pushing a wheelbarrow in high heals and food rations. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In our weekly market review, we survey trends in the US, then Europe, Asia, and Australia, as well a covering developments in Oil, Gold and Crypto. The main take-out is the continuing uncertainty pertaining to inflation, and interest rates, as well as conflict in Ukraine. The fallout is already significant, with global food prices reach … Continue reading "The Push-Pull Market Dynamics… [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest from our surveys and models. Where are prices trending, and how are financial stress footprints trending. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest Monday evening chat with our property insider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
An edited version of a live discussion as I explore the latest market trends with Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds, and Nucleus Wealth. What’s happening in the markets, and where are they heading? 0:00 Start0:18 Introduction1:20 Damien Joins2:00 Market Expectations On Rates5:30 Yield Curve Inversion20:00 Oil and Electric Vehicles35:50 Investment … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Investing Now With Damien Klassen [Podcast]"
My latest Monday chat with Edwin Almeida, our Property Insider. We discuss the latest trends, and warn buyers to stay cool, especially now…. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My weekly chat with Edwin Almeida, in which we discuss the fallout from the floods, how China is pulling its horns in, what property prices are doing, and we are introduced to three cockerels which Edwin has adopted. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
Our latest weekly market update, and what is really going on. All three major US benchmarks surged higher into the close, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ recording their best weeks since November 2020. Equity transactions spiked at the open as the expiry of stocks and index options collided with that of index futures … Continue reading "A Tradeable Bounce Within A Down Trend? [Podcast]"
My Friday afternoon chat with Tarric Brooker got philosophical today as we pick apart the events of the week. A number of critical issues are in play which have some potential negative impacts. Tarric is @AvidCommentator on Twitter. His slides are at https://t.co/v1IVtBzRua Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our property insider, as we consider the real story behind the flooding, risks when buying older property, mortgage stress, and the latest from China. The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Suddenly Central Banks and Governments have the perfect alibi (a claim or piece of evidence that one was elsewhere when an act, typically a criminal one, is alleged to have taken place) to account for years of poor policy, as costs of living, and inflation are rising. And as RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle leaves … Continue reading "Squeezing Until The Pips Squeak! [Podcast]"
Today I want to look at a range of recent data to highlight just how broken our housing market is. I regularly talk about how high prices are relative to income and how households are under financial pressure, but there are other forces to consider too. For example, we got updated data from the RBA … Continue reading "The Mechanics Of Housing Are Broken! [Podcast]"
The latest from our property insider. More listings and pressure on apartments, and responsibilities of landlords and tenants, plus Edwin finds something ugly under the house…. The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Like it or now, Banks hold all the cards if a mortgage holder gets into financial stress. So what are the signs to look for, and how can we avoid getting trapped. I discuss this important issue with Robert Elftmann who has successfully negotiated numerous mortgage disputes with banks and in the best interest of … Continue reading "The Unequal Relationship Between Mortgage Holders And Their Banks…"
My latest Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as we explore the latest charts on the economy and more. Current events are getting more wild, to the point that had they been in a Hollywood plot, critics would have panned it. Tarric is @AvidCommentator on Twitter. Slides here: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-4th-march-2022?s=r Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "Wars + Inflation + Financial Crisis = ? [Podcast]"
We should expect volatility to amp up Monday and is already heading for its biggest two-month surge in a year, according to a gauge of cross-asset expectations for price swings in Treasuries, U.S. stocks and global currencies. Treasuries are leading the way. But this potentially is another Lehman moment, as the U.S. and its European … Continue reading "Lehman Weekend 2.0? [Podcast]"
The latest from Edwin as we discuss flooding, auctions, and the lack of vodka. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
In this weeks market update, which is overshadowed by the action in Ukraine, we consider whether the markets are looking past Russia’s intervention. The spike in volatility through the week triggered wild swings in global shares, commodity prices and safe haven assets, including government bonds and gold, as investors recalibrated their positioning. Well certainly U.S. … Continue reading "Is The Bottom In? [Podcast]"
I am joined by Journalist Tarric Brooker as we discuss this week’s traumatic events, and he shares more slides on topics of the day. Link to slides here:https://t.co/NxO6SqzYQn Tarric is @AvidCommentator on Twitter. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the economy and what may lay ahead with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has a strong background in … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Economic Shock Ahead: With Leith van Onselen [Podcast]"
My latest with Edwin Almeida, in a thunderstorm. Which is up and which is down? https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our property insider – Edwin Almeida. Are prices on the slide? And what about valuations? https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
I caught up with Steve from his bond kingdom. We discussed the latest from the FED, and the expected trajectory of inflation, bond rates and the potential for deflation as stimulus is withdrawn. Why are the markets in inflationary la-la land? Steven Van Metre, Certified Financial Planner™ Professional, (CA Insurance License #0D45202 & Investment Advisory … Continue reading "Standby For Deflation: With Steve Van Metre [Podcast]"
This is an edited edition of my live stream in which I discuss the current state of the property market with Veronica Morgan, the Founder and Principal of Good Deeds Property Buyers. She is also the co-host of the popular series Location Location Location Australia and Relocation Relocation Australia with Bryce Holdaway on Foxtel’s The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Now With Veronica Morgan [Podcast]"
The latest from Edwin Almeida, our property insider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion looking at the current state of the markets with the Head of Investments at Walk The World Fund, and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen. What is the outlook, and what protections are in place if things go down? Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our property insider, as we welcome in the year of the tiger! But what are we getting from our Chinese connections, and what of local listings and auctions? Things are getting very interesting… https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Given the myriad of issues at the moment, Tarric and I had an additional discussion today, replead with some very significant slides. Journalist Tarric Brooker is @AvidCommentator on Twitter The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
This is an edited version of a live discussion in which I explore the current emerging Russian situation with Robbie Barwick from The Citizens Party. Are we being told the whole story?
This is an edited version of our latest live stream as I explore the emerging policies of The New Liberals aka TNL with founder Victor Kline and Steve Keen, architect of their housing policy. Both are standing in the yet to be announced Federal election. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-17/economics-set-for-post-pandemic-shake-up-covid-19/100756832
My latest with property insider Edwin Almeida. What with PM’s getting chopped from Wee Chat, personal rain clouds, and how to win at towel rugby, we cover it all! And cover property too… Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest from our property insider, as informal lock-downs bite and apartment listing rise. Things are getting interesting… and can yabbies and Koi fish coexist? https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Edwin Almeida joins me for another rant, as we look at the unofficial economic slowdown, reduced listings, and more from our WeeChat Chatters about whats going down in China. The latest edition of our finance and property news digest with a distinctively Australian flavour. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/
In today’s show we round up the market action for the week, as the Fed put the interest rate cat among the pigeons, markets saw significant rotation away from tech stocks, and inflation fears continued to take hold. What we are not seeing yet are the practical effects of the informal COVID driven lock downs … Continue reading "More Fuel For Rate Hikes? – Market Update 8th Jan 2022 [Podcast]"
The archetypal cartoon picture of a character running off a cliff, legs cycling, and hanging in mid-air, until the truth dawns, and then falls, came to mind today as U.S. stocks fell sharply on Wednesday, with the NASDAQ plunging more than 3% in its biggest one-day percentage drop since February and it also represents the … Continue reading "The Markets ‘Running Off A Cliff’ Moment? [Podcast]"
More economists have said a house price correction is on the cards in Australia, echoing forecasts from the big four banks. “Eventually, with wage growth remaining structurally weak, a higher interest rate could destabilise the housing market.” And the latest data from RBA and APRA also highlight the changed dynamics. Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "The Property Predictions Crystal Ball Is Cloudy! [Podcast]"
First of the new year our Property Insider Edwin Almeida looks at the latest listings, how much is spend on DIY and politicians promises. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
A significant number of legislative changes came in with the New Year, I had started to make a list for my post then discovered the Charis Chang at New.Com.au did it for me. And folks there are several important changes which will hit. There are changes to government payments, new distinctive collars for dangerous dogs … Continue reading "A Raft Of Changes Will Hit Us This Year!"
From the upcoming Federal Election, to market corrections, Gold, and Crypto we discuss the main themes for the new year. We highlight some of the emerging themes, frankly there are a range of icebergs in our path. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My latest chat with our property insider. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
The latest chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker, as he walks us through his latest charts, just in time for Christmas. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts
This is an edited version of our latest live show as I discuss the risk of another lost decade with regard to the Australian economy with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Leith Van Onselen: Another Lost Decade Ahead?"
Join Edwin Almeida and myself as we discuss the latest property news. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10314705/Asbestos-Gillian-Norths-dying-message-final-days.html https://asbestosawarenessaustralia.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Wall Street finished lower on Friday, weighed down by Big Tech as investors worried about the Omicron coronavirus variant and digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to end its pandemic-era stimulus faster. Stock moves were magnified by intense activity in the options market, potentially making Friday one of the busiest trading days of the year due … Continue reading "The Witches, Virus, Central Bank Volatility Dance – Market Update 18th December 2021 [Podcast]"
My latest Monday evening chat with our Property Insider Edwin Almeida from Ribbon Property Consultants. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Markets in the US had a strong end to the week, as investors reacted to the fact that November’s consumer prices gains met expectations, and continue to hope it will fall back, so easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to accelerate it taper and the timing of a rate hike. Looking to next year, supply … Continue reading "The Inflation Bazooka Wasn’t – Market Update 11 Dec 2021 [Podcast]"
This is an edited version of our latest live Q&A as I discuss the latest from our surveys and models, as we look at the latest mortgage stress and scenarios. You can ask a question live – down to a specific post code. Original live show here: https://youtu.be/CCIym9IPamk with chat replay. Go to the Walk … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Household Stress And Scenarios [Podcast]"
My regular chat with our property insider Edwin Almeida. We look at the latest listings, some recent property deals, news from the WeChat Chatters, and Edwin’s latest property time. https://www.ribbonproperty.com.au/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
Peter Schiff is an American stock broker, financial commentator, and radio personality. He is CEO and chief global strategist of Euro Pacific Capital Inc., a broker-dealer based in Westport, Connecticut. We discussed the latest ructions of the markets, whether we need Central Banks, and of course the role of gold in the financial system ahead. … Continue reading "Seeking A Value Anchor With Peter Schiff [Podcast]"
This last week could be one that many investors will want to forget, stocks, commodities, currencies, inflation, and the impact the Omicron variant are all in play. Importantly the yield curve is flattening, signalling an increased level of uncertainty, and as we will see, the future could be inflationary, deflationary, or just a muddle ahead. … Continue reading "A Week Is A Long Time In These Crazy Markets! [Podcast]"
In lieu of our normal Monday Property Rant, tonight we present an edited edition of a special live Q&A as I discuss SQM’s latest Property Report. Louis Christopher has an amazing grasp on the property data, and along with our property insider Edwin Almeida, we discuss the future trajectory based on his scenarios. Notably, you … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: SPECIAL HD Replay Latest Property Trends With Louis Christopher and Edwin Almeida [Podcast]"
The extended stock values around the world, created by too much Central Bank and Government financial support, makes them prone to react to news be it bad or good in a more extreme way. As we said a couple of days back, given the liquidity often it’s a matter of switching between sectors based on … Continue reading "Omicron Day – Black Friday or Red Friday? Market Update 27th Nov 2021 [Podcast]"
I had a visit from David Llewellyn-Smith from MacroBusiness and Damien Klassen from Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. We recorded a discussion on some of the underlying drivers behind the economy. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/
My regular Friday afternoon chat with Journalist Tarric Brooker. His slides this week tell a pretty sorry story! You can follow him on Twitter @AvidCommentator Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/