Infographic Instant with Bryane Michael: Recent Episodes
Bryane Michael
Infographic Instant Audio provides the latest thinking in law, economics and business. Are you tired of talking heads that don't give evidence or data to support their broad generalisations and opinions? Then you are ready for an Infographic Instant!
Your narrator is Prof. Bryane Michael. Prof. Michael holds fellowships at Oxford, Columbia, Hong Kong U, and others. He has advised over 20 governments, over 500 companies on transactions worth over $50 billion, and taught over 800 executives. A Harvard and Oxford graduate, he is qualified to lead you through the tough issues of the day.
In this brief chat, I review whether Bitcoins, scamcoins, digital coins and tokens can ever be real money. The answer: yes — if they have real ‘stuff’ backing them up.Most every tradable good/service (like chocolate) need prices to sit in a real economy. Py=mv is more than simple maths. It is the future of digital currencies. I give two sets of recommendations: 1- to you and I, and 2- to regulators.For us, we can protect ourselves be looking for the underlying value behind the ‘coin’. No real pig— I’m probably the Greater Fool.For regulators, a “real economy=real use” case for their regulator seems like the right way forward. Lets not get bogs down in regulatory requirements, exempt some with sandboxes.. and bureaucratize financial markets more. Use a simple approach. If the users had an honest, real use in mind — a price wipe wipeout, auto-contract glitch or 1,000 other problems were probably all innocent victims. Restitution goes like normal. Getting ‘Hushpuppied’ probably should get fraud investigators out there quickly.In a ever complex regulatory landscape, Michael’s appeal for a simpler, common sense, tied-to-our-shoes approach approach toward regulation seems desperately called for. NONE OF THE REMARKS MADE REFLECT THE OPINIONS OF ANY INSTITUTION I MAY AFFILIATE WITH, NOW, PAST OR FUTURE. I DONT THINK I GAVE AN AFFILIATION FOR THAT PURPOSE.
We are building the new internet on the bones of the old. Like the early attempts to build airplanes using flappable wings. We take our grandfathers' understanding of law and economics - and try to apply it to Web3. In this podcast, I describe how a new set of laws and conventions could help us break out of the 'lock in' which keeps us using New Tech (blockchains, lithium-ion, artificial intelligence, tokens) like the wood and paper of old tech. I give examples of how FinTech could change the way we live. And how 70-80 year old men simple add-on to existing law. Like taking the law on horse-driven transport and replacing the word 'car' for 'horse' in the new law. Dumb. Yet, true.
Most of us use theories and empirical results from development economics all day long at the office. What if much of it led to under-development because of a shadowy group of advocates (or those who profess) benefit from bad theory and practice? I describe this Shadow Professoriate, the rules that keep it going strong, and their wages. I provide ball-park estimates of the harm they cause and how they cause this harm. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4188018
Afraid to arbitrate a dispute because you don't want to spend thousands of dollars on lawyers? You don't need to. In this clip, I tell you everything you need to know about finding and hiring an arbitrator like me, the arbitration process and what you can expect to get out of it.
Governments are trying to procure innovative FinTech sectors. Yet, no one yet knows what such FinTech should look like. In our paper, we look at how to amend existing procurement law domestically and internationally. For the paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=3976018.
Wanda Dalian Chairman Jian-Lin WANG had a decision to make. Should he, and Wanda by implication, compete with Disney aggressively, or do something else? What should the company's grand strategy be? And what is the role of the People's Republic's government in all this? This teaching video should help you with the issues behind the case study. Listen to the case study here -- and read it on the link below. Look at the YouTube video for pointers from the Teaching Note. And prepare to think about the major issues involved in the case. For advanced MBA and management students and executives following related courses. Case Study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3169121
Anti-corruption laws are generally failing all over the world. Can regulation -- rather than legislation - hold the answer to more effectively fighting corruption? In this 'how to' episode, we describe 10 years of research on writing these rules. We argue that these rules teach us about the way administrative law is evolving - and how anti-corruption law forms its own area worthy of study. For the papers we referenced, see: 1. Drafting International Regulations: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=995978 2. Designing a Preventive AC Agency: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1468957 3. Lessons from the OECD: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2250999 4. Auditing Anti-Corruption Regulations: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2226501 5. Foreign law giving a helping hand: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2270964 6. Ethics-related regulations: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2354630
We find that financial centres balance democracy and autocracy, depending on trends in other international financial centres. Democracy can encourage financial innovation. Yet, autocracy can encourage 'focus' and cost-saving measures. The question is not whether an international financial centre benefits from becoming more democratic -- but whether it benefits by becoming more democratic RIGHT NOW.
Data do not speak for themselves. Only a model can help us make sense of the flood of data we see. Only econometric analysis helps us separate the signal from the noise. We review our model and the way we adjust global financial networks for distorting variables like the way economies shift over time.
Glancing at the data may show that democracy serves as the best incubator for financial centre success. We show the data - before applying the usual adjustments and controls which rigorous scientists would apply to make the data more reliable. We show how autocracy plays a greater role than one might think.
Many people see democracy as bad for developing an international financial centre. Qatar. UAE. Moscow. Istanbul. Jersey. Malta. Shanghai... the list goes on. We describe why the question holds extra relevance now in the Brexit and Hong Kong full reversion to Mainland authority - and review our findings.
Does democracy or autocracy political institutions best allow policymakers to grow their international financial centres? In this presentation, we show how these centres must respond to each other. Democratic inclusion in one place depends on another place. So does its centrality in the global financial system. We describe the importance of this question, tell what the data say, describe our view of the world and the way we must fix our data and finally present our results. Our research has implications from Brexit to Hong Kong post-2047... and everything in-between.
Central banks conduct monetary policy mostly through government securities markets (ie they buy and sell government bills, bonds, etc.) -- when not directly tampering with interest rates. Why should governments buy companies' securities directly - rather than support banks to do this? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Which central banks' private securities purchases would contribute the most toward real investment in their jurisdiction(s)? Such monetary policy helps most when conventional monetary policy has failed (or will likely fail because of liquidity traps) and the executive part of government sags in corruption and incompetence. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Econometric evidence shows a pretty clear line between central bank unconventional monetary policy (outright purchases) and output - usually because of its effects via money policy mechanisms. What about its effects on real investment (like in DNA sequencers, 3D printers, IP patents and "real" investment)? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Would unconventional monetary policy aimed at buying private sector securities (stocks and bonds) helped boost lackluster investment? Particularly in developing and emerging markets? We look at the role that central banks - as funders of last resort - might have played in promoting investment. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Central banks around the world bought up alot of securities. To what extent have central banks turned to buying private sector securities in a macroeconomic environment characterised by zero percent interest rates, low growth, investment, and ballooning debts? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Why can't central banks normally buy stocks and bonds from the private sector? What happens if/when they do? We introduce our subject, and quickly present our findings (that central bank purchases can promote investment under certain circumstances). For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Why don't central banks buy our companies' stocks and bonds? Should they fund mostly governments? And expand credit through banks? We look at central banks' role as a "funder of last resort." We find that investment increases when central banks buy private sector assets - except under a certain "sloth effect." We describe how law fails to give central banks the authority they need - and show how drafting a nominal GDP target objective directly into the central bank law helps promote investment and growth. For more: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3023795
Most governments copied competition law "best practice" - without accompanying templates on improving innovation/productivity. Competition acts are easy to copy. New ideas are not. Some countries like Singapore and Hong Kong will win out from more competition. Vietnam and even Japan won't -- unless law incentivises creativity. To see how much money your country will win/lose, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
The international organisations have pressured most countries into adopting competition laws. Many governments rightfully ignore them - because they harm domestic business (and particularly SMEs). If lawmakers adopt an innovation act at the same time as an antitrust act though, competition law can do more good than harm. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
Like with central banks, conventional wisdom has increasingly made competition authorities (commissions) independent. How does such independence look like in black letter law? Does the econometric evidence suggest that independence makes competition "better"? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
Competition law helps shape competition in a jurisdiction. "Better" laws help protect vulnerable businesses like small and medium enterprises (SMEs) - without hurting consumers. How do we measure the quality of such competition law? Who is ahead... and behind? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
SMEs provide much employment and longer-term economic growth. They also often provide the next, new idea which leads to entire industries. Which countries encourage these SMEs? How competitive are they? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
Competition often hurts SMEs more than helps them. In this presentation, we review competition laws in various countries (mostly Asia and Brunei as a concrete example). Without passing innovation legislation at the same time, competition law could well do more harm than good. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000240
What concrete laws can a jurisdiction pass to make its financial institutions more attractive for sunrise industries looking for money? We illustrate how new laws in Hong Kong can make its financial institutions ready to fund the complex and capital-intensive industries like the solar/photovoltaic sector. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
An international financial centre represents a technology, a method of generating information about new opportunities and risks. We describe the value of information in an international financial centre using China's solar industry and Hong Kong's financing of that industry as an example. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
Benefits from securitisation well exceed the current offering of securitised debt and assets. An international financial centre ready to securitise a sunrise industry can fill a large void -- and earn large profits. Hong Kong's own experience has been to make casino bet instruments, rather than productive assets. Yet, it does not have to be that way. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
How can an international financial centre dominate a sunrise industry's value chains? In this presentation, we show how US financial institutions disintermediated China's solar energy financing value chains -- locking out rivals in Hong Kong. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
What drives the development of an international financial centre? We show how to estimate the economic impacts of a sunrise industry on a financial centre like Hong Kong. We also estimate the supply/demand for various types of securities used to fund the solar industry. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
How much money will a financial centre's financial institutions book from a sunrise industry. We illustrate the market sizing exercise -- showing how to estimate demand for various types of securities from a new sector. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
Want to build a world-class financial centre? Dont focus on banks. Focus on the sunrise industry that banks will lend to (finance). We review the standard approach to international financial centre development -- showing why its wrong. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
Want to make a world-class financial centre? Dont focus on banks. Focus instead on creating the new industries whose money your banks will handle. This presentation reviews the way that financial centres grow -- and talks presents the law which can help foment such a financial centre. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495259
The first in a series of informal videos I made for my class at Columbia U in Comparative Budgeting and Public Financial Management. Focuses on the course's skills and cases. The quality isn't great -- but why not to share with those interested?
The second in a series of informal videos I made for my class at Columbia U in Comparative Budgeting and Public Financial Management. Focuses on using class skills to succeed in mid-terms and finals (ie analysing real-world, practical cases). The audio quality isn't great -- but why not to share with those interested?
The fourth in a series of informal videos I made for my class at Columbia U in Comparative Budgeting and Public Financial Management. Focuses on using data to take decisions about government budgets and financial statements. The quality isn't great -- but why not to share with those interested?
The third in a series of informal videos I made for my class at Columbia U in Comparative Budgeting and Public Financial Management. Focuses on using class skills in practical case study applications. The quality isn't great -- but why not to share with those interested?
How much extra money can Qianhai companies make -- in a world where local governments adopt the best policies possible? About 10 times more than they would otherwise.
Qianhai can become so much more than just another urban development. We show the data about designing better urban innovation incubators. And review Hong Kong's failed innovation policy. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
Shenzhen does not grow the garden variety type of garage-style tech companies. How do companies, universities and government bodies come together to make start-ups? What does this suggest about Qianhai's future performance? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
Shenzhen and Hong Kong bring something different - and complementary -- to the Qianhai innovation park (urban development). We review the data - and show how Qianhai can become so much more than just a fancy place to live and work. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
The data suggest that a bespoke innovation park serving Hong Kong and Shenzhen won't have much impact on company profits. Or innovation. We review the econometric studies - and Qianhai's costs. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
The video presents the major sections of our larger study - and presents the main results. Qianhai -- a property development in Shenzhen -- can revolutionize innovation for Hong Kong and Guangdong, if local policymakers let it. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
Qianhai is a new innovation centre -- meant to combine the powers of Hong Kong and Shenzhen. Yet, right now, its just another real estate project. How can we change local laws to make Qianhai a profit centre? How can Qianhai fix Hong Kong's currently failing innovation policies? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2907608
Hong Kong has come a lot way in terms of strengthening its corporate governance. Yet, Mainland markets need it to do more. We show Hong Kong's corporate governance weaknesses -- and show that reform won't cost Hong Kong's offshore incorporation and company secretarial firms very much. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
China's economic fundamentals indicate that now is the perfect time to reform its corporate governance. Yet, China's institutions have "locked-in" existing poor corporate governance. Only outside influence from places like the US (or Hong Kong?) can help. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
Hong Kong's and the Mainland's offshore relations and corporate governance are interlinked. We describe the waves of offshore incorporations in the region. We also provide evidence suggesting that China's poor corporate governance practices allowed companies to skirt Hong Kong's stricter governance standards. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
How much does China's poor corporate governance cost companies? How much would they benefit from reform? For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
How does Chinese corporate governance rank relative to other jurisdictions? How many of its companies excel and/or falter in making profits from better corporate governance. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
How can Hong Kong learn the lessons (and obtain the benefits) from the US's extra-territorial corporate governance laws. We describe data measuring the quality of China's corporate governance. We describe how Hong Kong's corporate governance regulations impact on Chinese governance. And describe how we arrived at benefits of $333 billion in extra market value from adopting better corporate governance at home and abroad. For more, see: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2914865
Construction looks like Brunei's scalable sector. As it gets bigger, it should push all growth forward. We present the data and math looking at the best amount of construction resources Brunei's government should put into construction -- now and in the future. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395661
Good luck trying to find an estimate for inequality in Brunei. Until now. Using publicly avaiable information, we show Brunei's 0.4 Gini coefficient rates favorably with other countries like even Malaysia. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395661
GDP growth needs to follow a "health route." Too fast or too slow, and growth hurts broader social development. In this session, we describe the 3% growth target which seems to maximize the social development of countries like Brunei. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395661
Using human development indicator scores seems like a great way to measure government's performance. One simple number tells how good a government chases our hopes and dreams for us. Yet, as more countries use HDI targets, would we see an HDI "arms race"? For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2395661
Loans will never be repaid in the IGAD region. In this episode, we describe how securitisation - and selling shares of hard assets (or debts) - can bring the $40 billion needed by countries like Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya and Uganda. For more, seehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790661
The IGAD region contains the poorest countries in the world. Perfect candidates for development bank lending/finance. How much money should these financial institutions give? About $40 billion. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790661
Do the poorest countries in the world need their own development bank? Existing development banks have completely failed places like Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Eritrea, Uganda and Djibouti. For more, seehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790661
What do we know about the successes and failure of development banks so far? We describe the data -- showing how development banks have had high lending costs, low loan amounts, and socially inefficient project choices. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790661
Many countries continue to set up development banks. Should they? We show data about effectiveness of development banks. They have a good record of turning a profit. But a poor record of promoting development. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2790661
We present the data showing how far China's real estate prices need to drop in order to wipe out China's current GDP growth. We talk about the 4 sources of economic shocks -- and weigh their relative effects. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2785503
How will changes in real estate prices likely affect China's growth? In this episode, we describe the data which might help us predict (if not at least understand) banking, real estate and even sovereign crises. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2785503
We describe how economies -- and especially China's economy -- respond to different economic rules before versus after a crisis. We present data from major OECD economies' real estate and banking sectors before and after crisis -- and the model which allows us to understand China's growth better. For more, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2785503
Infographic instant episode describing new data showing banking restrictiveness by country. We introduce our index of the similarity of banking and financial regulations around the world. Listen if you want to know the best/worst countries to invest/bank. For the paper, see https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2563981
How can law firms and investment banks compete for Chinese Going Out mandates? We show - using econometric analysis - how the legal complexity of the advisors' jurisdictions, their differentiation strategies and their local law schools, play a role. We also talk about a new way of seeing Geography as an academic discipline. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2607348
What does legal theory and economics teach us about the way corporate governance needs to change in Hong Kong? In this presentation, we review the problems with Hong Kong's corporations. We show how some simple changes can help bring much more money to this international financial centre.
Hong Kong sits perilously close to China -- geographically and economically. If and when crisis hits the Mainland, Hong Kong's financial centre will probably suffer. What can lawmakers do to protect an international financial centre highly dependent on a fragile larger hitherland? In this presentation, we review the amendments we propose to Hong Kong's own financial law. We talk about the tools and mind-set regulators need to get their jurisdictions ready for the crisis.
What can Hong Kong learn from the EU's experience in tackling corruption across borders? In this presentation, I talk about the ways that Hong Kong can import successful legal provisions from other jurisdictions (particularly the US and EU).
How can regulators draft more competitive financial law? For the jurisdictions lower down on the Y/Zen rankings, what can they do to raise they rankings -- and grab more money sloshing around global financial markets?
Law firms and global investment banks compete vigorously for clients from emerging markets. In this segment, we discuss the Chinese industries these clients come from. We show that elite advisers do not specialise in order to attract mandates.
This presentation provides the overview of the "mystery of China's divorced advisors." Chinese companies choose law firms and I-banks outside of China and their target companies' countries. Why? We motivate our discussion of the reasons in future infographics...
Hong Kong's law firms should be allowed to trade on the stock exchange. Historical inequalities have possibly deprived them of the same levels of capital as their foreign rivals/colleagues.
This is the audio version of the China Economic Review article on funding solar energy in China. For more, see: http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/solar-securitization
Cross-country data suggest that a new competition commission may need to wait 60 years to achieve full effectiveness.
In this Infographic Instant, we look at related party transactions across Malaysia's economic sectors. How prevalent are related party transactions? What does it mean for the Competition Act?
Which countries' banks have the highest mark-ups? In this Infographic Instant, we look at the likely distortions to banking sector competition -- as a prelude to thinking about the effectiveness of competition laws in Malaysia
Can Hong Kong maintain its status as an international financial centre once it stops relying on secrecy? In this audio brief, we describe how Hong Kong can maintain its "dual-track" financial sector -- with one part a modern, open and transparent centre and another with a closed and secret area of activity.
In this Infographic Instant Audio Brief, we look at the major opportunities for investors and design firms in emerging markets' infrastructure boom. We look at how investors, professional services providers and (of course) design/consulting firms, can get their piece of the $4 trillion bonanza.
Different groups of governments change their organisational structures in different ways. Find out which governments roll with the changing economic punches -- and which do not.
Governments don't simply choose the best level of decentralisation and stop there. They constantly adjust their margins of centralisation to fit with changing social and economic circumstances.
Which countries are starved for credit? In this infographic instant, we look at relative credit expansion in various emerging markets. We identify which emerging markets represent shadow banking opportunities for aspiring domestic and foreign shadow bankers.
In this infographic instant, we look at where shadow banking is growing the fastest. These emerging markets hold great promise for shadow bankers looking to make inroads into these markets
This infographic instant describes which countries have larger central governments, and which ones have larger local governments. We show the data, and talk about why some local governments are larger than others.
In this infographic, we look at the value chains driving Chinese solar companies' revenue growth. We look at each of the securities which would likely earn Hong Kong's financial institutions money.