DRUNKENOMICS: Recent Episodes
Aaron Wong & James Goldwater
Apologies for the late publish, but we had to wait for election results before pouring that stiff one this week. Anyways, the red sweep after the election sent stocks soaring coupled with the Fed easing cycle continuing. Certainly a lot to unplack this week, so I'll just let you get to drinking.
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In two weeks time, we'll be through election week followed by the first post-election rate decision by the Federal Reserve. So what all has happened in the last four years and what are some things to expect for the most pivotal week of the year? Grab a drink & find out.
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What an eventful past couple weeks we experienced, huh? Starting with that amazing jobs report that caused the 10-yr yield to soar, suggesting that the Fed might've either been too Hawkish or too premature. Additionally, the Chinese hail mary of a stimulus package created some volatility overseas, but will it prove itself to be sustainable? Lastly, thoughts & prayers to the hurricane victims.
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The Fed rate decision last week was something that certainly caught us all pretty off gaurd. If you remember, we were pretty much in the camp that a 25 basis point cut was going to take place last week. However, a 50bps cut really got us wondering if the economy is as strong or resilient as it seems. Because seriously, does the economy have any serious tailwinds aside from government spending & AI Optimism?
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It's that time of the year again where people are starting to call it the September slump. However, the subject this week primarily revolves around the housing market, more elaborative discussions on some policies, and of course, the fun subject of labor hoarding. We promise to talk more about the September slump when we gather next for a dram of whiskey.
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The Harris/Walz Campaign released their economic policy (among other things); but as a drinking podcast, we tried to focus on just how, if enacted, their economic plan will impact us. Starting with their tax on capital gains to, price caps, and housing subsidies, we're drinking some Vieux Carrè's to this plan. Cheers,
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Don't you also love seeing another tumultuous week in the markets? Looks like the interest arbitrage opportunity with low Japanese interest rates backfired for only a single day last week. However, cracks in the economy are starting to widen with weaker consumer sentiment, cooling inflation, and a ton of leverage. Also, big event on the political front. Had to warn you about that real quick...
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First off, sorry for putting this one out so late...we had busy work schedules along with some tech issues; which can be severe given that this is a two-man shop. Nonetheless, a lot has happened on the political front that we can't ignore. Hate to talk politics, but the overlap from econ and politics is too apparent to ignore. Beyond that, we had an incredibly volatile market since the last Fed meeting. Has anyone noticed?
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Hard to not discuss politics with the eventful weekend & week we've had. But, it is an election year so it's hard to talk around the elephant in the room. With that, we poured one out to the tragic event that took place over the weekend along with the announcement of Trumps running mate. Granted, the markets seem to care very little about that as Jerome Powell made some tumultuous remarks.
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We try really hard to leave politics out of our cocktails, but with everything going on, we really couldn't help it. Starting with the U.K., a snap election took place shifting the power spectrum on 10 Downing St. towards the left. Additionally, a young, left-leaning party in France also took over much of the voting strength in Parlement français. Then of course, there was the Presidential debate here in the States...what a circus that was.
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Remember when the Fed said inflation was transitory 3 years ago? Funny how that thesis played out. From there, remember when last fall & winter when the Fed talked about how much progress they made on inflation? Also funny how that thesis played out when revisions came around. Now, the Fed is boasting about the strength of the economy. This time, I must admit...they're really making me nervous.
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Welp. I finally did it; I had enough drinks and tried to solve all the world's problems while the mics were hot. Sorry if the ideas suck, but at least we were able to talk about the recent inflation print, elections among some of the BRICS countries, and the Fed meeting from earlier today. But seriously, it'd be nice to have a world where we didn't all depend on the Fed to solve the problems they indirectly create.
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As another wave of graduates enter the work force, we try our best after a few drams and brews to provide our encouragement to our econoholics as they go about their job search. But first, we talked about some geopolitical suspicions along with some factors that potentially keeping investors awake at night...at least according to a Goldman Sachs survey.
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Another drink leading to another conversation about the Federal Reserve; especially since this is the first time we drank together since the May Fed meeting. But it's funny how volatile markets are whenever anyone from the Fed speaks in a public setting. It seems like all markets care about anymore is their progress on taming inflation.
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Happy Fed week everybody! Or is it unhappy? Either way, we can all agree that the Fed's fight against inflation is starting to look like the The Battle of the Morannon in Lord of the Rings, except without the help of the ring being destroyed. Other facilities are being used in efforts to tame inflation, especially the unwinding of the balance sheet, but it all begs the question: what's the point?
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So...if you've been paying any attention to the markets lately, you might've noticed that there has been some major volatility lately. Most of this can probably be explained by the recent hawkish Fed posturing that took place back in the first week of the month. Though this outlook didn't come as a huge surprise to us, the bond markets seemed to be totally caught off guard as bond yields shot up; even in the high quality space. I guess it's a good time to pour ourselves a stiff one...
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It's pretty easy to have a robust economy and inflated housing market when the government deficit is still running rampant and has no real signs of slowing down. Additionally, core inflation has been revised upward, likely indicating that the Fed is slightly further away from their goal of taming inflation. But while we're here, cheers to the middle class.
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And not the corporate kind, but the kind as tax payers to the government. Anyways, more & more data is suggesting that the broader economy is resilient, giving the Fed no reason to lower rates (as we've seen today). However, as the debt maturity wall approaches, the Fed or Federal Government may be forced to take on other easing measures to mitigate some debt reinvestment risk from the maturity wall. Granted, any of their solutions usually always leads to more problems or higher taxes, which is why I want my clawback.
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AI Optimism has certainly led to some unusual price action in the stock markets. As a result, it seems as though the volatility skew has flipped on its head & shifted over to the call side of the options chain, driven by FOMO. But while we're still talking about AI, is this something that's even actionable? How long will it take to implement? And does it have the potential to wreck the consumer base?
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The Fab Four/Mag Seven, as we all know, has really spearheaded the recent strength and momentum in the major markets. But could there potentially be some risks or external factors that could potentially arrest their momentum? Well, of course there are; but on the other hand, they could also not ever come to fruition. Also, retail sales number for January are noteworthy; you get a chance to look at them yet?
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So...we've been on our good news bears train for a bit now; but with recent economic data released along with us all surviving the first Fed week of 2024, we may find ourselves back in a situation where good news is bad news. With numbers coming in strong, this leaves the Fed more room to be hawkish (which is what I meant at the 30min mark when I misspoke), meaning tightness around financial markets. Also happy almost S&P 5k.
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As we approach a unique business cycle where the economy is seemingly strong despite inflation pressures, the walls may seemingly be closing in as this giant debt maturity wall approaches. Economists believe this may compel the Fed to step in, but who says that's even within their job description. On the bright side, markets as a whole seem optimistic about the massive cash balance still left on the sidelines...
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Welcome to 2024 everyone, hope you all had a great holiday season! Because we have yet to see any sort of "landing" in 2023, hopefully we can see a good economic resolution and turning point in 2024. Either way, we're still on our good news bears train because why not. But with the bulk of cash uninvested on the sidelines along with the Federal reserve potentially cutting rates a few times this year, we could be ok. At least I hope so :)
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Another December to remember thanks to this post Fed Santa Claus rally. However, tensions in the Middle East brewing could finally get us off our Good News Bears train. In any event, it's been a great year y'all! Loved drinking with you guys & we'll see you again in the new year!
Cheers,
Drunkenomics
Welcome to probably the last big week of the year in terms of economic data being reported. With CPI and another Fed meeting coming out this week, we decided to remain cheery as we head into our holiday season. All that being said, we remain in the camp that a lot of economic troubles are easing due to economic and consumer resilience; which means the Fed will most likely not waver in terms of their hawkish posturing. But, more to come as we head towards the last presentation of the year! Cheers,
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First off, hope you all had a great week off; also, we had to amend some things we said after a few drinks last episode. Something about IRA's being tax-sheltered. Anyways, with all the doom news going on, we had to provide some good news to talk people on the consumer level off the ledge. However, there are things to be concerned about. Although, for the most part, the economy is in pretty decent shape. So cheers to that.
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It's Thanksgiving already?? I guess with time flying so fast, we all could probably have a dram to retirement plans and ways we can make sure we're financially stable when we get to that point in our lives where we think about how time flew by so fast. Therefore, we had some gravy backs to the three pillars of retirement along with the current state of Social Security. No need to repeat this at the dinner table this week unless you really want to...
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There you have it; CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but Fed posturing still implores the economy to put up with a "higher for longer" environment. With that, a shower thought I had recently made me think about the millennial plight; being that we are by far the most indebted generation with not only our own debt to service, but also the debt of the extremely fiscally irresponsible federal government. And the interest expense on that will be other worldly.
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Happy week after Fed week everyone! Hope you were all able to recover swiftly from your hangovers this last weekend because this US Government balance sheet is nothing but sobering. Upon viewing the Fed day interview with Jeff Gundlach on CNBC last week, it looks like the US consumer along with the US Government has a serious debt problem that a "higher for longer" attitude will only add fuel to the implosion. Not trying to call wolf...just saying...
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Well, the Fed decision is out now; looks like the tone and stance of the Fed is still pretty hawkish pending some sort of major economic catastrophe. But the main question now becomes: when does the Fed their terminal rate? Also, when will the Fed officially begin lowering their effective rate? Seems like money managers all over the world are trying to get a pulse on this. That and the UAW strike.
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Well...at the time this episode was being recorded, there was still a 'speakerless House.' Of course, in an uncharacteristic fashion, they managed to elect a speaker in Mike Johnson within a day of this being recorded; but congrats on getting something done finally. Most of our drams this week, however, was consumed to the discussion of which broad asset class might outperform in the next 12 months (not financial advice) given the headwinds and tailwinds we're seeing along with what the talking heads on Wall Street are talking about. I'll put a reminder in here to check if our thesis actually came to fruition.
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I guess...having a 'speaker-less' house is pretty fun. It's at least funny to observe the kind of clown show we have at our nation's capitol. In case you missed it, Kevin McCarthy was ousted a couple weeks ago from his speakership position and Jim Jordan was the front-runner to fill the void. But somehow, even his political weight can't get him voted in. Then of course, we had a pretty solid inflation print that was spearheaded by rising energy prices. Let's see if the Fed will try to take mattes into their own hands on that end.
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CPI data, Fed forecasts, Job Numbers, those are all important figures to pay attention to in terms of global macroeconomics, but it pales in comparison in total importance at times. In case you missed it, there was a very tragic war that broke out in Israel this weekend. Although there are some economic implications, it pales in comparison to the human cost taking place and the human right violations being executed by the terrorist organization that is Hamas. So pardon us for being a day late and being so sobering on our drinking podcast, but this one's rough. Thoughts and prayers for Israel 🇮🇱
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Welp...we've officially made it to the last quarter of the year; and what a year it's been. Because we're all awake now that September has ended, we can expect to see CPI data come in similar to the way energy stocks performed last month. If you were asleep for the month like Billie Joe of Green Day, I'll fill you in and let you know that energy, particularly oil, had quite a run; which means, I'm not feeling optimistic about inflation data. Also, happy trails Kevin McCarthy.
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As the Fed President has mentioned in his presser today, the economy still has yet to see the affects of the tightening monetary policy from last year. Pair that with employment and inflation data that just came in, it shows that the Fed potentially still has room to enact further tightening. Granted, equities and especially fixed income markets are begging for some relief; which means this tug of war will probably result in absolutely nothing happening in Washington this week.
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I'm beating myself up for not coming up with the question earlier...but why is the Fed so obsessed the the 2% inflation rate? Historically, inflation has seen an average rate of about 4%. Granted, that does include some difficult cycles of price increases; but that accounted for, is that 2% target rate worth achieving even if it does crater the economy and wage growth? Also, what's this I hear about capital requirements going up?
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It seems like the weeks spend digesting the Jackson Hole Symposium turned out to be a real bummer. The Street pretty much decided to focus on the Fed's commitment to that 2% target inflation rate and could see plenty of hurdles we need to navigate to get there. Additionally, we also wanted to talk a little about Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities aka TIPS. It's kind of a foreign subject to some people in terms of how it works, so wanted to discuss how it fits in the world of floating rate bonds.
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Finance #Economics #Economy #FederalReserve #Bonds #stocks
It seems like the weeks spend digesting the Jackson Hole Symposium turned out to be a real bummer. The Street pretty much decided to focus on the Fed's commitment to that 2% target inflation rate and could see plenty of hurdles we need to navigate to get there. Additionally, we also wanted to talk a little about Treasury Inflation-Protection Securities aka TIPS. It's kind of a foreign subject to some people in terms of how it works, so wanted to discuss how it fits in the world of floating rate bonds.
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Well so much for that market euphoria. A lot of market observationists were really expecting a Fed victory lap at the Jackson Hole symposium after CPI came in under the Fed Funds rate for multiple consecutive months. However, Jerome Powell expressed a much different sentiment, saying in his speech that their job is far from over and that they're still aiming for that 2% inflation target. Not the worst outcome given that no one's feeling good about the economy; however, not the best outcome since the people that "ruined" the economy when they thought they were fixing it, are still committed to deploying solutions to fix the economy.
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As we continue to harp on China for producing less than promising economic data, we also need to observe some promising economic data here in the U.S. With CPI coming in at below 4%, the idea of a soft landing achieved is certainly not off the table. Granted, the idea of a looming rolling recession still hovers over this economic environment, but there's certainly less reason to be scared. However, across the Pacific; the narrative drastically different. China's economic numbers seem far less than promising which could result in a disruption in the supply chain. How you ask?
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Some very surprising economic data overseas came in earlier this week; but for sake of continuity, lets start with last week. Tech earnings coming in strong (for the most part) furthered echoed the resiliency of the U.S. consumer base. From there, JOLTS and non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected giving way for the Fed to potentially pivot; combine that with credit card debt reaching all time highs, you might have a decent story as to why the U.S. consumer still has some fire power. Last but not least, China imports & exports...holy sh*t what a jarring report.
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It finally happened (again). U.S. Government long term debt has been downgraded from AAA to AA+, meaning the ratings agency are at least suggesting some sort of default risk for U.S. Treasuries. In case you're thinking that it's a byproduct of aggressive interest rate hikes, Fitch cited poor governance, political polarization, and a spine chilling (my word choice) government deficit. On the bright side, AA+ bonds historically have a low chance of defaulting on coupon & principal payments; and our Q2 GDP growth did surpass expectations. I guess we'll just have to see how this plays out....
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Yeah...I know I flipped the classic quote from the brilliant French Economist, Jean-Baptiste Say; but in many cases, this is also true. When supply shocks in an economy take place, they offer producers or consumers the opportunity to take advantage of advantageous price points. However, those price levels eventually spearhead the return to a good price equilibrium. With Russian disrupting Ukrainian exports, we might get front row seats to another supply shock again. Also, happy Fed and tech earnings week. Hope those events are good for your portfolio.
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I know debt that is about to default (or is already in default) is certainly less attractive that a damsel, but it is certainly distressing. Which is why we decided to pour one out this week to the corporate bankruptcy surge we saw in the month of June. However, we did spend some time at the beginning answering some questions in our discord about various asset classes and unionization. Speaking of...
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Finance #Economics #Economy #FixedIncome #Debt #CorporateFinance #Interest #whiskey
So the S&P almost breached 4500 last week and it's still hanging out around it's 52-week highs. On top of that, a lot of market 'experts' on CNBC and Bloomberg have suggested that the price action isn't euphoric and that there is substance to this kind of equity valuation. A lot of the optimism, however, doesn't seem to want to remove any blinders to the fact that the Fed is still in it's tightening cycle along with some major issues in the world's second largest economy: China. So in other words, we'll see who wins this tug of war.
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If you think you had a tough week, check out what happened in the UK. Nothing like an Inflation print that constantly and stubbornly surprises to the upside leading their central bank to declare a 50 bps emergency rate hike. Additionally, the Russian paramilitary organization, The Wagner Group has led a pretty solid resistance against their motherland. Although ironic, it does create some uncertainty within commodities and trading blocks.
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So we're taking a trip across the Pacific this week and drinking Japanese whiskey to toast Antony Blinken's visit to China. With that, the presence of the U.S. Secretary of State to the People's Republic doesn't solve a lot of their issues; but there could be some optimism (hopefully) to come of this. Also, hope you all had a happy Fed day last Wednesday along with a very happy CPI day on Wednesday eve. The Fed deciding to pause hopefully garnered some optimism for your portfolio, although it came with a very hawkish tone.
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From a case study standpoint, we're fairly certain that economists are going to look back on this time frame 5 years from now and call 2022-2023 a long and shallow recession. Even if you turn on any financial news outlet now, you'll hear 'experts' saying that a 'recession' is really just hitting different parts of the economy at different times. Currently, manufacturing seems to be the one going through the ringer...and commercial real estate is seemingly next on the chopping block. At least the Fed decided to pause this month as far as rate hikes are concerned...lol.
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So the Government has officially kicked the Debt Ceiling can two years down the road to 2025, which provides more significance to the Fed meeting next week. Conveniently, the next inflation print comes out the day before the rate decision is announced; so we have plenty of economic events to look forward to next week. Additionally, has anybody seen the most recent jobs/employment numbers??
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Well at least we can now finally put the debt ceiling thing behind us. Who would've thought that the representatives that the good people of the United States would actually choose to compromise a few budget constraints over the alternative; which is complete economic catastrophe. Nonetheless, there are certain contingencies in the bill that might affect the economy moving forward and essentially could put us back in the same exact situation a few years down the road. But all this back & forth has left the window open for the opportunity to build some momentum behind the war against the dollar...yikes
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First off, I must apologize for all the tech issues in the last couple weeks. Seriously, I've missed you guys. But coming back in inglorious fashion, we have to split a bottle of scotch over the potential likelihood of a US Government default. Though there's still a very low chance that a default does happen, there's still a first time for everything. Odds are, they strike a deal at the 11th hour in true form. Lets talk about what happens if they do...then speculate on what happens if they don't.
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Sorry for the short & solo presentation...some of us were still recovering from a hangover. But we wanted to give a quick update post CPI and what the market outlook vibes are now that we have a seemingly positive real interest rate. More to come in the next week!
Cheers,
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It should be noted, that this is not an attempt to call Speaker McCarthy a zombie. However, we had to come up with somewhat of a title to combine the subject of a what a zombie company is along with the fact that the largest zombie company in the world might in fact be the U.S. government. Even then, the arbitrary debt ceiling has even stirred some worry that a U.S. government default might actually happen. And if you remember, the banking crisis is seemingly starting to show some real contagion through First Republic...don't want to be crying wolf though.
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Seriously, when is it ever not pending...but it seems at though this current pending phase is starting to wear out it's welcome. CPI data came in promising, but retail sales slumping maybe suggests that we might have some weakness ahead. But all this data also might suggest that the Fed's policy might be working and that a soft landing might be within the cards. Also, happy Tax Day. I hope you filed on time or at least got an extension approved. Pretty hectic time of year I know...
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After a refreshing holiday weekend, the BLS is now releasing a ton of important economic data that the Fed will no doubt overreact to. What economic data might you ask? Well for one, jobs data came out on Good Friday, CPI came out earlier today, and retail sales will be released on Friday. In the last couple years, the Fed has been known to try and solve every little forecasted problem without considering the repercussion of creating other ones. Take the supply chain issues, droughts, fixed income portfolios for banks, etc. as an example. Like dude, just focus on your main objectives; inflation & employment.
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So...OPEC+ in their infinite wisdom (actually lack thereof) recently made the 'brilliant' cartel decision to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. All the while, Saudi Arabia smoothed over tensions they had with Iran, courtesy of China, and speaking of China, they agreed to let Saudi Aramco buy into two of their largest oil refineries. Now, the notion of buying stake in China certainly does seem foolish, but this one comes with a rather unique twist. What might it be? Listen & find out.
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I guess the fruits of the Federal Reserve's labor is really coming to fruition. Because of this, they had to succumb to a 25 basis point rate hike to at least keep up the appearance of not completely falling on their sword. Additionally, SVB got bought by First Citizens on a sweetheart deal from the FDIC and the lack of interest in the SVB's assets. And cheers to Gamestop for posting a profitable quarter...
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I guess the main takeaway from this whole bank fallout out is that the Fed ended up only raising by 25 bps rather than the projected 50 bps by the bond market earlier this month. That and UBS and Credit Suisse are now the same company; which really was a long time coming one way or another. However, the overhanging paradox remains: on one hand, banks that make poor decisions deserve to fail; on the other hand, loss of faith in the overall banking system would be catastrophic for the overall economy. Hmmmm......
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I guess the cat got out of the bag and became the elephant in the room. As far as how that happened, Silicon Valley Bank had a balance sheet so ugly that the Motion Pictures Association would have to create a might need to create a new rating class for it. Like seriously, how can you have a portfolio duration that is so exposed to the interest rate hikes of the last two years. Now the question is how much contagion is there? Let's hope this doom loop doesn't get out of hand.
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Welcome back everyone, hope you had a chance to recover from your accumulative hangover; and what a week to come back to. So far, we've had a Fed presser, a Beige Book release, and a JOLTS report. As expected, we received astoundingly hawkish tone from JPow and the markets reacted accordingly. Additionally, the Chinese doom loop seems look more and more vicious; which can lead to some severe economic implications...more to come.
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In lieu of our 3-year anniversary episode, we decided to form some sort of market outlook for this year. Since we've started, inflation has gotten out of control, markets have been unbelievably volatile, and the Fed is now functioning more like a popularity contest rather than a central bank. However, the constant throughout this time has been the amazing taste of whiskey and the undeniable fulfillment we get when we share a dram with you all. Here's to three more.
Cheers,
Jobs report, check. Inflation report, check. Retail sales, check. Three key pieces of economic data for the month of January came out over the past week and all of those signs point to a strong economy; meaning inflation has not cooled at all. Now, hindsight 20/20, the 25 bps hike last meeting now seems weak and cowardly. The contrarian view, however, is that government interest expense is pushing $1 trillion while personal credit card debt is also nearing that benchmark. Maybe it makes sense, idk I'll ponder it over a bottle of whiskey.
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The Jobs report on Friday proved that the Fed has a lot more room to tighten monetary policy even more. The only thing we now need to see is the CPI report that conveniently comes out on Valentines Day. Additionally, Lebanon felt the appropriate move for their country is to devalue their currency by 90%. Why would they do that? Well, pour yourself a dram and find out.
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Well, 450 basis points later and the Fed has not been able to control inflation...especially in chicken/egg prices (although it would be cool if the Fed had a tool in their arsenal to increase chicken & egg supply). But in all seriousness, in the biggest earnings week of the first quarter, the markets also decided to get optimistic about a potential Fed pivot taking place before the end of the year. In other words, being "data-dependent" really means they have the ability to be totally flaky and still have more attention than the prom queen.
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As the entire world (including Saudi Arabia) gets to know China a little better, the prospects of the petroyuan taking over seems less and less likely. And that's even with all the trade partnerships in the works for China. Seriously, their municipalities are running low on cash, their real estate market is in shambles, and their leadership is seemingly oblivious to their economic deterioration. However, to throw another turd in the punchbowl, talks of the petrogold are starting to materialize. On the homefront, debt ceiling concerns are back as it was kicked down the road back in 2021. What will these concerns potentially turn into?
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Inflation print came in a lot cooler last week, which leaves some odd balls to believe the Fed's chance of navigating a soft landing has actually increased. However, if you actually examine the CPI basket of goods and see the drivers of inflation, the news really isn't that good. Better than last month, I'll admit; but still not good. Additionally, international trade agreements are starting to gain momentum as BRICS and the NDB are starting to attract suitors. Now the 'developed' world has some competition.
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Now that we got all the new year shenanigans out of the way, we're right around the corner from the first wave of economic data coming out (although a ton of data has already been released); which means the powers that be will have a ton of soul searching to do post-reckoning. But all that really means is that they're just gonna continue to be 'data-dependent,' whatever the hell that means. Also, the fixed income market has forced pensions to beg their public relations departments to fend off mark-to-market inquiries. Lol.
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Despite pretty much every asset class experiencing some major carnage last year...it could be worse. Although most major investments were down, it did present an opportune time to do some tax-loss harvesting; which, the subject alone is pretty touchy. Additionally, we finally decided to follow up the potential tinfoil hat story about the potential currency war between China and the U.S. So it's about time we poured one out for the Petrodollar.
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We all got by 2022 inflation adjusted...congrats y'all & cheers to you. In our last presentation of the year, we actually tried to not talk about the Federal Reserve since they were pretty much the only topic of conversation all year. Instead, we talked about household debt levels, real estate, and of course some billionaire gossip. See you in 2023, in the meantime, feel free to hit us up...
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With all due respect, the Fed has no balls. Even after admitting the strong labor markets and the pain inflation is causing on the American economy, they still only chose to raise the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points. In their desperation to navigate a soft-landing, inflation may continue to persist well into the new year. Also, European Central Bank is facing even larger problems.
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As promised..here is our presentation (episode) about complex options trading strategies. When we say complex strategies, we mean option trading strategies involving more than one option contract. These strategies include credit/debit spreads, iron condors, protective puts/covered calls, collars, calendars/diagonals, straddles/strangles, and even butterflys. We will meet again this week for another drink as toast to CPI results and Fed decision. In the meantime, feel free to send any questions about options trading to us by...
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Due to all the requests from our econholics & drinkonimists in our discord, we've finally made an episode on option trading. In this presentation, we predominantly cover single leg option strategies like long/short single calls or puts, why they exist, and even take a dive into option greeks. Next week, we're gonna take a deeper dive into complex (multi-leg) option strategies, such as, debit/credit spreads, diagonals/calendars, straddles/strangles, and even condors/butterflys. It is a confusing concept to grasp, so if you have any questions, feel free to hit us up on...
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Yes, we made a ton of Metallica references in this presentation in honor of the best news of the year: Metallica is coming out with a new album and going on another world tour. Additionally, nearly offsetting this fantastic news is the possibility of a railroad strike, protest outbreaks in China, and language of a premature Fed pivot. Also, the credit bubble seems to only be expanding as savings rates are plummeting while credit card debt is soaring. Hopefully it all ends well like the Master of Puppets album.
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Happy Thanksgiving folks! Quick episode here on the Holiday week about recent signals from the Federal Reserve. Apparently they're flirting with the idea of pivoting and it's causing all kinds of upheavals. I know there's a lot to be thankful for, but don't you also wish we can go back to the days when the markets looked at something other than just the Fed?
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Sorry if this affected you in anyway, but we have stumbled across our next 5-letter f-word once again. This time, it's Sam Bankman-Fried. Additionally, inflation numbers came out and shocked the markets in a good way...twice. So much so, that certain Fed governors are really flirting with the idea of pivoting. Why? Well, beats me, but if you really wanna know how we feel, just pour yourself a stiff one in listen.
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But really, what we mean by that is we've elected our way into a political gridlock; which can be a good thing, but can also be a detriment. Granted, election results are still technically up in the air, but it's pretty safe to assume (lol) that the senate is going to be split 50/50; aka gridlock. In these scenarios, the rule book doesn't seem to ever change, since nothing really gets passed through the Legislative branch. In some cases, it can provide a decent level of certainty, but other times, people are desperate for change/improvement...or both.
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Three quarters later, we’re still not making progress towards the pipe dream of a soft landing. Inflation has shown no real signs of slowing down; yet GDP numbers and the labor market still suggests the Fed is no where near the ‘pivot’ point. I’m at the point where I’m honestly wondering if achieving the terminal inflation rate of 2% is even possible. Also, the same problems persist in Europe, and they’re even further behind the U.S.
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Apologies for all the classic punk rock references...this week goes to the song 'Clampdown' by The Clash from their masterpiece/genius album "London Calling." But a huge political shake up took place in the U.K. with the entrance of Rishi Sunak as their new Prime Minister. This announcement alone brought stability to the GBP and the English GILTs. Conversely, a whole new leadership lineup took place in China, making Xi JinPing even more powerful than Mao Zedong. Unlike news from the U.K., markets reacted mournfully.
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Greetings all, hope you had a better week than the UK. The battle between saving pensions vs. saving the Pound-Sterling lingers on as the Minister of Finance was sacked; and the new plan proposed: pretend the proposed plan a few weeks ago by Liz Truss never happened. Meanwhile, here in the States, the soft landing is almost certainly out of the question as Bloomberg reported a 100% chance of a recession in the next 6-9 months. Drink 'em if you got 'em I guess.
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A 30-year fixed mortgages is now hovering around 7%; more than twice what it was a year ago. But because of compound interest, the cost of taking on a mortgage is through the roof (pun intended). Credit spreads have widened as lenders weigh interest rate, inflation, and duration risk; but mortgage lenders seem to be the most spooked in this environment. So...will there be a correction in the housing market in the near future?
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A 30-year fixed mortgages is now hovering around 7%; more than twice what it was a year ago. But because of compound interest, the cost of taking on a mortgage is through the roof (pun intended). Credit spreads have widened as lenders weigh interest rate, inflation, and duration risk; but mortgage lenders seem to be the most spooked in this environment. So...will there be a correction in the housing market in the near future?
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The Bank of England currently is facing a dilemma where they have to pretty much choose between crushing their government bonds (GILTs) or UK pension plans. To make things worse, OPEC+ has made the condescending decision to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day; which will likely cause oil prices to shoot up. However, there might be a light at the end of the tunnel? Sorry for being optimistic...
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What do you call the economic cycle that shows signs of pre-recession and recession at the same time? Seriously, what do you call it? Also, the Pound-Sterling is almost at parity with the US dollar, Italy has a new Prime Minister, Chinese Yuan has completely collapsed, and where the fuck is President Xi??
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Well, the nearly free liquidity the last decade has really hit a wall. The Fed announced this week that they are raising the Fed Funds Rate another 75 basis points and expressed their intention to repeat this hike two more times by year end. The 2-year yield has surpassed 4%, which will force investors to reconsider the risk premium for bonds and equities. And not to mention, there's a $8.7 trillion Fed balance sheet that needs to be unloaded.
Cheers,
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The Fed chair has said the word 'pain' during a presser on Friday, leading to a sharp decline in equities. Strangely enough, the bond market had little to no reaction. Why? Because it's been the same narrative for months. Also, big news on the student loan front. Listen for a breakdown of some of the pros and cons of it's implication.
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The US Dollar and Euro have hit parity once again and social media has made a parody out of it. For Americans, it may seem like having a strong currency index is great for our economy; but it what does this actually do for the import and export markets? I'll give you a hint, it has something to do with how big tech adjusted their year-end guidance for the rest of this year.
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The housing market is starting to show signs of cooling down, but will it actually face a crash or correction? There are plenty of catalysts on both sides of the argument worth drinking to. Additionally, could the stock market consolidation in the last few weeks be caused by the new excise tax that begins in the new year? I'm gonna need another drink for this one too.
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So the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in at 8.5% might be suggesting that inflation may have plateaued. So from the Fed's perspective, maybe 75 basis points from the last couple meetings is actually working. Or maybe just bureaucratic optimism of the Inflation Reduction Act passing has caused inflation to retreat. Either way, 8.5% inflation is still atrocious. On the bright side, we can always raise interest rates or pass more bills.
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GDP numbers came out this morning although we recorded the night before. It's funny how the NBER has a different definition of a recession than what we are all technically used to; which is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And as of this morning, we officially got it. It may just be me, but it sure does look like, walk like, and quack like a duck (no offense to ducks).
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Hey, hope this finds you well because the farmer protests in Europe have extended into Spain and Italy. Not to mention, the Italian government has fallen apart, the European Central Bank seems stuck, and The People's Republic of China (ironic name, I know) have sent tanks to protect their banks from protestors. We may need more whiskey than usual to get through this presentation.
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First off, sorry about the audio. We were having a tough time connecting the mic. However, we did have a nice dram of whiskey over the Dutch farming protests that spilled into a bunch of other protests. We also couldn't help but mention the immaculate timing of these protests in the midst of a global food shortage.
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There are normally 4 different stages of a bear market cycle: Recognition, Initial sell-off/panic, dead-cat bounce/consolidation, then capitulation. In our humble opinion, we are currently in the midst of stage 3, waiting for the catalyst for capitulation. So how will we know when we're in stage 4? Listen to find out. We had to answer some questions off the bat so our answers to that question really come in towards the end.
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Just a heads up, we do get pretty political at the 38:50 mark. We couldn't cower away from addressing the economic implications of certain political decisions made on the Hill. Nonetheless, Q2 is officially in the books as we say goodbye to June (great band by the way, Goodbye June). July is going to be a daunting month for the economy as we head deeper into QT, go into another earnings cycle, see June's inflation report, await the conclusions of the next Fed meeting, and see Q2 GDP results. Brace y'allselves.
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The Fed once again reversed itself by raising interest rates by 75 basis points even after saying that was out of the question after the last meeting. So here we are, we have a Fed that's playing from behind out of desperation to recover whatever credibility they have left. And yes, they are somehow in charge of controlling money supply and unemployment. Godspeed y'all.
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So now we're in a situation where everyone is looking to the Fed to solve inflation issues. Am I the only one that finds that incredibily discomforting? Also, am I the only one that notices that every projection, forecast, and timeline the Fed makes lasts about 3 days? In the Fed we (don't) trust.
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Now that the 10-year yield is hovering around 3%, the discount rate for equities need re-evaluating. Not to mention, surging commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are really cutting into profit margins and company forecasts. Even with this gloom, the markets seem to be consolidating right now; althought no one knows exactly what for. What will be the catalyst for a break out and which direction will it be in?
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Our friend Luke Lloyd, as seen on Fox Business, Yahoo Finance, CNBC, & TD Ameritrade Network, joins us this week for multiple drams of bourbon. Naturally, once properly liquored up, we began discussing the state of the economy, job market, the Federal Reserve, and whether or not we're in the middle of a recession. Always nice catching up with an old friend!
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The consumer sentiment index came in at it's 12-year lows upon the release of April's print. Although the index doesn't tell the whole economic story, it does have it's influence on inventories, manufacturing output, and even employment. So how is this thing measured and how significant is it to our GDP?
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Food shortages around the world have motivated countries to ban commodity exports. First with Indonesian palm oil, then Indian wheat, and now we have a long list of over a doxen countries banning food exports. As if supply chain woes and inflation haven't been bad enough, the world has come to enacting comprehensive protectionism.
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So...how's navigating the carnage since the FOMC meeting been treating you? Seriously though, the bottom is insanely tough to predict and the markets have seen enough dead-cat bounces to make every dip look appealing. But godspeed to all you econoholics, I hope we can put our minds together and time the bottom!
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So we just experienced a quarter of negative GDP growth while core inflation is still at a four-decade high; I swear there's a name for this that sounds like a bourbon brand. Also, discount rates for equities are in a tight spot with the US10yr creeping above 3%. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL
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So...Elon Musk buys Twitter and Disney is in a politcal war with the governor of Florida all in the midst of Q1 earnings season. What a time to have megacap exposure in the markets...if only there was a way hedge against all this uncertainty.
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Bad dad-joke, I know. Almost as bad as how high real estate prices are in this economy. But even with the average 30-yr mortgage above 5%, an unwinding of $35 billion in MBS's, and a rising interest rate environment, will the housing market cool down? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOMICAL
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50% of Americans now feel a recession will fall upon us in the the 12-24 months; which brings us to the spirit that is not whiskey. Instead, it brings us to the animal spirits which can be a leading indicator of an imminent recession. So what does the term "animal spirits" even mean?
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If there was a bird hunt to find a single dove among the members of the FOMC, no one would score. It seems like all the hawks have gobbled them up. So why not have a drink while everyone shifts to a more hawkish outlook and observe through whiskey glasses as the Fed winds down their colossal balance sheet.
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Had to keep this week short as we drank to the rock legend, Taylor Hawkins. Because of this, liquidity (aka whiskey) was flowing which made it all the more fitting to talk about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and how it contrasts with the old Keysian school of thought. Also, happy (or sad) yield curve inversion week!
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Imagine having absolutely nothing to hide and actually enjoying the audit process. Firms like Evergrande really need to think outside the box to have that kind of imaginative motor. Nonetheless, every public company is required by law to have an 'independent' company come in and perform an external audit. For what reason? Pour yourself a dram & find out.
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HAPPY ST. PATTY'S WEEK EVERYONE! Hope you're still with after being relentlessly click-baited by the FOMC. It's almost like they're trying to take the attention away from the geopolitical tensions in Europe (& elsewhere) and commodity markets.
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Nickel futures shot up 90% on Monday in a matter of minutes. On top of that, several other commodities, such as aluminum, palladium, and zinc, also hit all time highs; while wheat futures breached 14-year highs. According to Contango theory, commodity futures in a normal market are more expensive than spot prices. But too bad we're in backwardation.
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Ever been cut off at a bar before? I'd imagine it's a lot like being sanctioned. Speaking of which, Russia's been sanctioned by pretty much the entire world in the hopes that the economic squeeze causes Putin to have a change of heart. Like anything else, we'll see what happens.
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First off, happy valentines day to everyone else receiving mixed signals. The FOMC keeps on toying with my emotions too so I sympathize with you. And that giant country in Eastern Europe? Them and Ukraine also keep sending me mixed signals, which in turn sends mixed signals to the energy markets. Maybe I just need to reach for the whiskey bottle & thicken my skin.
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Think of it this way, you can just have a dram of rye on the rocks, or you can have a post-M&A rye on the rocks; some mixologists would call that a Manhattan or an Old Fashioned. But when it comes to M&A, why do they happen? What's the motive? And how does it work logistically?
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Well, I guess the LIBOR was a made up thing anyway; but now the LIBOR is being completely replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate. So may the LIBOR rest in peace forever, but as it's resting, what will that mean for new debts issued? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOMICAL
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Welp. There goes all the major averages. They have all officially entered into correction territory. Some experts suggest we were in an equity bubble prior to this pullback we've just witnessed. So what exactly is a bubble, how does it form and how does it burst? And no, unfortunately we are not talking about champagne. Find us on Twitter, Instagram & Facebook (Meta) @DRUNKENOMICAL
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Finally did an episode on the titular banking act that was passed way back in 1933. The Glass-Steagall act was one of the first real banking regulations in America and it proved to be a pivotal point in the life of regulatory oversight of investment/commercial banks. So why did it happen? What came of it? And what's left of it in this day and age?
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It seems like military coup d'état's are popping up everywhere and political leaders around the world are being randomly over thrown. Last time we talked about a military coup, the result of the coup shocked the price of aluminum (you know, that can that holds beer). So what exactly is a military coup and how does that affect international finance and commodities markets?
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Unlike Antonio Brown, most of us will reach retirement age at 59.5 years old (at least according to the US government). At that point, hopefully we've stashed away a nice little nest egg for retirement or the dissaving period of our lives. In the meantime, what are some of the tools can we use to save up for that chapter? That's where savings and retirement/IRA accounts come in.
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Ever wondered who the greater fool is in the stock market? Well it's not a hard question to answer; especially after you listen to this episode. Also, thanks for a great year of drinking alongside us. Hope you had fun and we'll see you on the other side of the new year!
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Anyone looking for a one-way ticket from Hong Kong to Taiwan like the capital markets? Additionally, our friends at the FOMC made a powerful statement last week about their new taper tantrum schedule and their plans to pull back money velocity. I guess no one is still aboard the 'inflation is transitory' train anymore.
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Participatory Preferred is just one of the four types of preferred stock we touched on in this presentation. We'd prefer if you would listen to the rest of the episode to get caught up on the three other types. Also, big news on the Fed meeting today. Be sure to tune in to our reaction next week!
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Speaking of playing chess not checkers, China and Russia are making moves to plant their flag. In case you missed it, China's trying to plant a military base in Equatorial Guinea while Russia looks like they're trying to finish what they started back in 2014. Doesn't seem sus at all...does it.
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Welcoming back from Turkey week. Speaking of Turkey, their revolving door of Central Bank Chairmans (among other things) have caused their currency to rapidly decline in value. Not to worry though, because the Fed Chair in the states also retired the word 'transitory.' So...lol to everyone that wished me a Happy Thanksgiving.
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Yep, there it is; it finally happened. JB (aka President Joe Biden) has appointed a new Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve and that person just so happens to go by Lael Brainard. She has even began her tenure by stating that her primary objective is to address inflation concerns. But what types of inflation are there? This is perhaps a sticky or slippery subject.
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Herein lies a toast to what most investors consider to be the boringest financial instrument out there: Bonds. During these drams of whiskey, we discuss why bonds are issued, terms coupon vs. yield, maturity, and what the par is; not to be confused with shooting a 72 on the golf course....
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So October employment/inflation numbers are out and we're here to drink to it; more so drink to how the Fed can use certain tools to control it. So get yourself a bottle of tariff-free whiskey and have a drink with us over Monetary Policy.
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The only transitory thing I see is the name "Facebook." Since they're transitioning to Meta, the Fed looks like they're also transitioning to a new stance that believes inflation could be longer than transitory.
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For almost everything, there's a right way and a wrong way to do it; then theres most certainly a stupid way. So is there a way to possibly protect yourself from the wrong & stupid ways?
We also touched on the September Quit Report, Jerome Powell's trading disclosures, supply chain bottlenecks, and what base whiskey to use in an Old Fashioned/Manhattan.
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Time to talk about the market's favorite benchmark of volatility: the VIX of the Volatility Index. Trust me, it kind of makes sense if you think about it; but it makes even more sense if you don't think about it at all. Either way, what other Option do you have this week?
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Two Fed chairmans are being pressured to step down due to some COI concerns; which will create the tiniest dent in the coming jobs reports I guess. Thankfully, we avoided a shutdown as Congress has agreed to kick the can down the road and re-face the issue in December. Not sure how the two are related without a drink dram of whiskey in hand.
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It's been nearly one whole month of extraordinary measures to avoid US Government default; and it has only brought us to a pivotal moment. Will the poorly-casted cast & crew in Congress come up with an agreement before the deadline, or will the government shut down? What are the chances the US government actually defaults??
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
So Chinese real-estate giant, Evergrande, really isn't feeling too grand anymore as they're facing some serious debt and liquidity issues. To pour a little salt in the wound, the Chinese government said they're not too big to fail. More details in the episode as the Vix is back up above 25.
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
You asked for it, we drunkly delivered. Here is an episode about PFOF or payment for order flows. Felt timely due to Gary Gensler flirting with the notion of banning it. Also, some big news over the weekend about Guinea that could possibly influence the price of beer cans. Not the beer per se by more so the can itself.
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Supply shocks, such as ones caused by hurricanes, can have either short or long term impacts. It's like the difference between having a hangover vs. a drinking problem.
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
We're pulling an international finance episode on you guys this week because it just so happens to be the largest exchange in the world. Seriously, did you know that forex markets are much larger than the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Tokyo Stock Exchange combined?
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If you listen to the end, you'll hear a blooper. But until then, why not get a little geopolitical after what has happened over the weekend in the middle east. Additionally, what's the deal with the taper tantrum ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting next week? Why was the volatility index above 21?
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Super quick (Jamesless) rundown of the CPI numbers along with the new budget resolution that was recently passed. I wonder how the infrastructure bill will influence the termination of the debt ceiling suspension. Will be elaborated further in next week's episode.
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Here's the first half of our episode this week due to the anticipated CPI & PPI numbers coming out on Wednesday. For now, we did a quick snippet on the new NCAA NIL ruling. Cheers.
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So a bunch of economic numbers decided to get published this week after the debt ceiling suspension has ended. Turns out it could be interpreted as either a nice craft cocktail or a bar mat shot. I guess it just depends on how drunk (or hungover) you are. Either way, feel free to take a sip and judge for yourself.
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First off, I want to say: long live punk rock. Secondly, that outstanding aggregate US debt of $28 trillion, guess who owns it? And don't act surprised when you find out. Lastly, any word on that debt ceiling suspension yet?
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So the excess cash at banks are piling up and tilting the balance sheet against them. Luckily, the Repo Man (aka the Fed & not Emilio Estevez) can untip those scales with a reverse repurchase agreement. But why does it have to soar above $1trillion?
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July 31st is the judgement day we've all been waiting for. It's the day in which the debt ceiling suspension ends. However, the debt has run up $5 trillion since the damn thing was suspended; which brings up questions. That is unless of course you don't think about it.
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So the June job numbers came out, and it looks like the economy is doing a pretty good job. But how does it compare to the crash in '08, or is there even a comparison there at all? Pour yourself a drink and join the conversation.
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So it turns out money supply comes in 4 stages (M0-M3) or brackets or whatever you wanna call it. At least in the U.S. it does. Additionally, inflation is driven by supply & demand for money; so why not complicate it even more by bracketing the ways we measure aggregate supply?
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Somehow, we managed to convince a cybersecurity lawyer to have a drink with us over the JBS & Colonial pipeline hack. And boy did we learn a lot about geopolitical implications of an event like this along with the procedures from both the threat agent and the victim.
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Wealth is all fun & games until the IRS wants to play. Which is why corporations & billionaires spend a lot of time, energy, & money ironically to legally pay as little as they can. Not here to be the judge on whether that's right or wrong; just laying out some of the ways they do it.
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Some of you might know him from his appearances on Fox Business, The TD Ameritrade Network, Cheddar, Yahoo Finance, etc. Others might know him cuz he's just a cool dude with great liquor taste. Either way, we got the one and only, Luke Lloyd from Strategic Wealth Partners, to come on Drunkenomics to talk about the state of the markets, inflation, and crypto!
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Techenomics is harder than economics. But we tried to squeeze an episode out for you this week regardless. Chalk it up as a non-cash expense, which is the subject of this week's bar tab. In other words, depreciation, amortization, and their younger step brother, depletion.
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Money Supply influences inflation; but what influences money supply? In this week's whiskey dram(s), we discuss the tools the fed can deploy to possibly influence buying power. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL
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Short episode this week folks! (and we're not talking about selling short). We had a lot on our plate, but wanted to get something out about business, economics, & finance news real quick. Hope you all are doing well & staying drunkenomical!
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Cheers!
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I know, it took us about time to talk about the most basic principle of economics: Money. How did the concept begin, why is it currently the way it is, and where is the function of money headed? (That last question's just a guess by the way).
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Economic rent is a very coveted thing. So much so that many of the largest companies seek it. Therefore, economists have created a cool little name for it: rentseeking. Now why is economic rent so coveted and who(m) exactly does it benefit?
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Once again, 3 months has passed and earnings season is upon us. So how do investors determine if a company has "earned" it's share price based on the previous quarter's performance? What are some of the basic things (sober) people listen for in an earnings call?
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Everyone knows minimum wage is a convoluted subject. How does it affect price, labor, employment, technology and inflation? But, like anything else, it's less convoluted when you're three drams of whiskey deep.
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A dovish Fed chair, semiconductor/chip shortage, and inflation. How did the chip shortage arrive and how would that affect the prices of the things we consume on a day-to-day basis? All that and more in the post-Masters episode.
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James introduces a Drunkenomics tax proposal as we tax about the forces that are supply & demand. Wow that is the most literally description of an episode that I've come up with.
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What a month last week has been! From the constipated canal to the Goldman swaps, we've had our fair share of entertainment. Anyways, how you holdin' up?
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The Fed's balance sheet is probably well over $10 trillion, which is the equivalent of idk how many bottles of scotch.
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You walk into a bar and you're in the mood for wine and rye whiskey...but you can only buy one drink. What do you do? You drunkenomically order a Manhattan. That is an ETF.
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You ever wonder who determines what belongs in the Russell, Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P or are you too busy doing other things? It's ok I am too.
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We can use futures to hedge against the uncertainty of what the future holds?? Dave Fiala from FuturesOne with more...
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Bonds doing bond things, incase you're interested. Also, I know we promised an episode this week with the one and only, Dave Fiala. However, our poor co-host, Aaron, had a tough time coordinating things through the Texas winter storm...we're terribly sorry, but we're all gonna have to wait til next week.
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Stay drunkenomical for the love of God
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Honest Question: Is the total market cap of the markets greater than the overall U.S. GDP and by how much? I know, trivial question, but not as trivial as is your BAC above 8% cuz drink responsibly.
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Yes. We've all heard by now that the pillars of value investing are too old and can't hold up the building. Aside from believing in value investing, releasing our 50th episode this week also makes us feel old.
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Preview for value investing. Not sure why we're talking about it because value investors are practically dinosaurs. So I guess we're really just pouring one out for those (literally) poor folks.
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STAY DRUNKENOMICAL FOR GOODNESS SAKE!!!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Remember when value investing was a thing and people discounted future cash flows to determine the value of a share price? Lol it's ok neither do we. Apparently the strategy now is to find the next stock that's gonna experience a short or gamma squeeze and hopefully whiskey comes out.
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Hong Kong Song Gone Wrong part II. Lol at those China GDP numbers, but who knows...maybe they're right. Anyways, what a start to 2021; I hope your bars are stuffed with good scotch.
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P.S. WE'RE GONNA HAVE GUESTS SOON!! STAY TUNED!!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
What a year last week was and what an interesting start it's been to 2021. Not saying we should give up on it yet...but here's to 2022.
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!!
Very awkward play on words I know. But he came out of his shell (like shell companies, get it?) after we recorded, but while we were still editing. Either way, new year, new Drunkenomics cuz we're slightly more drunk.
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STAY DRUNKENOMICAL Y'ALL!!!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
I hear ya...I was drunk most the year and for some reason, I feel as though I still haven't had enough to drink. If you must know, I remember talking about antitrust and collusion for a bit in the episode, but the rest I blacked out and don't really remember.
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Happy New Year y'all & plz stay drunkenomical!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Well here it is. The stimulus package along with the episode in which we tried to talk about everything, but mainly talked about the stimulus bill that might be replaced. Don't worry, plenty of alcohol was consumed with it...
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Stay Drunkenomical my friends!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Yes, it's 2020 and we're still talking about Brexit yet surprised that it's taken this long. All I'm really certain of regarding this mess is that there is a ton of good booze production on those Isles so...
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
"The future will come...I believe it will." -The greatest promise ever made by Frank Caliendo's impersonation of W. Idk what that has to do with futures market, but it sounded cool.
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
It literally is all just a (zero or non-zero sum) game!! Also, sorry in advance for those participating in the drunkenomics drinking game this week; for those of you that don't know what that is...DM us for inquiries.
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
The episode leading up to the ultimate chess not checkers episode on Game Theory. In the meantime, lettuce all be rational & have a very Happy Thanksgiving!
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
I don't get why members of my fantasy league are only willing to trade their star running back for my star kicker when I offer them money. It's almost like they're charging me a tarifffff....oh wait...wow ok I kind of get it now.
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Y'all heard the news about the vaccine yet? Cuz if you have, you know that there are few things as stimulating.
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Hangovers suck, stay drunkenomical.
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Results are in finally! Here is our semi-objective reaction if you care to listen.
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A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Scotch or Irish Whiskey; that is the ultimate election-week question. No matter how much we may consume, lets try to be civil!
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Don't mean to scare you this bad on Halloween week...but Zombie companies already live among us. Depending on who you ask. But according to a Deutsche Bank study, nearly 1 in 5 publicly traded companies meet the criteria of being an 'undead' company. K have Happy Halloween.
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Stay drunkenomical y'all
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
"I feel too stimulated" said no economy ever. At the same token..."The economy is too stimulated" said no person(s) on The Hill, apparently.
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Y'all be drunkenomical now.
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Man walks into a bar...the tender asks him what he wants; He orders a dram of dividends; the bartender passive-aggressively tells him he missed the ex-date. Better luck next time you wanker!
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Let us know if you need any good hangover tips...
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Officially going public can be nerve racking. Seriously, it's tough predicting how the market will react to the news.
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Our discord link is in the bio^
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all!
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
So far in 2020, SPAC’s raised $4.1b and pretty much rule the world. Did anyone know what a SPAC was 4 weeks ago? It’s like discovering a 300 year old scotch distillery and you can’t tell if you love or have no feelings for...
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Stay Drunkenomical y’all
A Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a digital media and commercial video production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network and learn more about our other services today on HurrdatMedia.com.
Sorry for the delay everyone...we've been hungover for weeks cuz we were drunk for weeks prior to that. What's New?
Also, some exciting news to come out next episode! Stay Tuned...
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Stay drunkenomical y'all
"Gold is money. Everything else is credit" -J.P. Morgan -Drunkenomics
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Buyback blues are definitely played in a minor key signature...just ask Stevie Ray Vaughan or Eric Clapton. Also, the Dow 30 rearranged their set list; should fit the mood of the music festival a little better.
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BAR ETIQUETTE EPISODE! So if it sounds like we're complaining about our jobs...we are; in hopes that our fans are courteous patrons at every bar they visit.
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Remind the gap otherwise known as the Productivity Wage Gap, which is a thing. We talk about it this week.
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Tax breaks, political influence, and rare scotch. Will 99% of us ever get it?
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It's still Q2 earnings season? Geezus is 202 only half done?! Am I hearing anti-trust right? And Fed Chair has something to say, too?
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Earnings expectations are like things: they're not what they seem.
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Billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions and billions of dollars have been poured into the Chinese economy through Hong Kong since 1997. Does anybody know why or when the party'll end?
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Yeah, we're not using fake I.D.'s anymore. Which means we need accountabilibuddies to audit us whenever we make illegitimate financial statements.
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It's always nice to have options. Like should I eat a pizza or a burrito? Btw, this episode comes with a video about options...find it on Instagram/Facebook/Twitter @drunkenomical or on Youtube at hhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua-J5eVdSdg&feature=youtu.be
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Stay Drunkenomical
If you don't do politics, politics will do you. And that's the last thing we want for our drunkenomical drunkies.
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You don't go out looking for a job dressed like that do ya? On a weekday? -The Big Lebowski
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Stay Drunkenomical y'all
In the words of Joe Biden, what's the difference between "economic intercourse" vs. market intercourse? Which one's more (re)productive?
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Filing for Bankruptcy is kinda like being cut off at the bar. Sometimes you can still get a drink at a different bar; if not, you're probably better off not remembering it anyways. And the guy that came up with the six bankruptcy chapters obviously doesn't count chronologically. It's about as linear as a Quentin Tarantino movie.
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Inflation, Deflation, Stagflation, Drunkflation...what do these things even mean? Not exactly sure either, but I like the sound of drunkflation the best.
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Stay drunkenomical y'all
Feelings are like long supply chains...they're very fragile. How can they be less fragile?
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We've been mishearing this the whole time: The only certainties in this world are Debt and Taxes.
Don't @ me.
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You're at the bar and it's your turn to buy...even though the last two rounds were also on you. What's your debt to GDP ratio?
-Your professor.
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Just click the link, scroll down, click our logo, and spend over $120 if you want free shipping...
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Lets play 'The Floor is Lava' but with oil 'cause 37 dollars is 37 dollars.
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Irish Whiskey is helping us make sense of all the non-cash money that's out there...or the non-ice ice cubes in our drink.
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The words 'High" and "Frequency" need to be more closely associated with shots of Irish Whiskey than equity trading...but that's just a Drunkenomical Op-Ed.
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Think of algorithmic trading like a Pink Floyd cover band. Sure they can perform the songs, but they couldn't write an album like Dark Side of the Moon.
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Take this bottle of scotch for instance. Where did it come from? How did it get here? Where is it going? What happens once it reaches the end of its life-cycle?
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As long as Scotch is wet, there will never be a liquidity crisis...until the Fed injects it with water.
Stop watering down my scotch!!
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Oil is thicker than blood, let alone scotch...apparently. Episode named after the masterpiece movie: There Will Be Blood.
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The ultimate rate cut debate: is scotch bottle half empty or half full?
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Would it be drunkenomical for the Fed to...you know, for them to.... Dang it I drank the question away.
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Volatility? Never heard of her.
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Interest: It's what you owe...literally. But why? Seriously though, why?
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