Net Assessment: Recent Episodes
War on the Rocks
Hosts Melanie Marlowe and Christopher Preble debate their way through some of the toughest and most contentious topics related to war, international relations, and strategy. This podcast is brought to you by War on the Rocks.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent short war between India and Pakistan. Christopher Clary’s first cut of history provides a careful reconstruction of the key events, made all the more difficult by misinformation and disinformation on both sides. But did either side “win”? What role, if any, did Trump administration officials play in negotiating the ceasefire, and what does their involvement portend for the future? How did new technology shape each side’s behavior in that conflict? And are crises between the two countries likely to escalate in severity in the coming years, or can they reach some accommodation? Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth earns a grievance for gutting the Pentagon’s operational testing office, but an atta for his strong performance at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in Singapore. Attas to the Ukrainians for the audacious drone attack deep inside of Russia, to President Trump for repealing the supersonic air travel ban, and to the newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-Myung. Grievances for the abysmal state of servicemembers’ housing, and to the Trump administration’s crackdown on foreign students wishing to attend U.S. universities.
Show Links: * Christopher Clary, “Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025,” Stimson Center, May 28, 2025 https://www.stimson.org/2025/four-days-in-may-the-india-pakistan-crisis-of-2025/ * Asfandyar Mir, “India and Pakistan Enter a More Dangerous Era,” New York Times, May 9, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/india-and-pakistan-enter-a-more-dangerous-era.html * “Five Key Concepts to Understand the India-Pakistan Crisis,” May 19, 2025, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/2025/five-key-concepts-to-understand-the-india-pakistan-crisis/ * Supporting Stimson: https://www.stimson.org/support/ * Dan Grazier, “Gutting military testing office may be the deadliest move yet,” Responsible Statecraft, June 4, 2025 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/dod-testing-cuts/ * Choe Sang-Hun, “He Survived a Knife to the Neck. Now He’ll Lead a Divided South Korea,” New York Times, June 3, 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/world/asia/lee-south-korea-new-president.html * Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, April 22, 2025. * Donald Trump, post, Truth Social, May 10, 2025. * Executive Order, “Leading the World in Supersonic Flight,” White House, June 6, 2025. * Sudhi, Ranjan Sen, Faseeh Mangi, Dan Strumpf, and Akyla Gardner, “Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom,” Bloomberg, May 11, 2025. * Diaa Hadid and Omkar Khandekar, “Vice President Vance Says India-Pakistan Fighting is ‘None of Our Business,’” National Public Radio, May 10, 2025. * Timothy A. Walton and Thomas H. Shugart, Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific, Hudson Institute, January 7, 2025. * Rene Kladzyk, “Navy Secretary ‘Appalled’ by Barracks Conditions in Guam,” Project on Government Oversight, May 29, 2025.
Is President Trump’s approach to foreign policy best described as a spheres of influence approach in which the major players are the United States, China, and Russia? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Stacie Goddard’s recent article outlining this idea and assess the implications for Europe, Asia, and North America. Chris expresses frustration with a new brand of American corruption, Melanie highlights China’s acquisition of land near Itaewon, and Zack laments the restructuring of the National Security Council.
Links: * Stacie E. Goddard, “The Rise and Fall of Great-Power Competition,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/rise-and-fall-great-power-competition. * Monica Duffy Toft, “The Return of Spheres of Influence,” Foreign Affairs, March 13, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/return-spheres-influence. * Edward Wong, “Trump’s Vision: One World, Three Powers?,” New York Times, May 26, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/26/us/politics/trump-russia-china.html. * Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Trump, Rubio take aim at National Security Council’s ‘Deep State’,” Axios, May 23, 2025, https://www.axios.com/2025/05/23/white-house-national-security-council-trump-rubio. * Choe Sang-Hun, “North Korea Makes Arrests Over Failed Ship Launch That Angered Kim Jong-un,” New York Times, May 25, 2025, https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/world/asia/north-korea-ship-launch-arrests.html. * Rebecca Ballhaus and Angus Berwick, “The Father Pursues Trump’s Diplomatic Deals. The Son Chases Crypto Deals,” Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2025, https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-steve-zach-witkoff-crypto-6d8a96be * Supporting Stimson • Stimson Center
An immense and growing national debt, entrenched political polarization, and falling levels of patriotism might lead some to conclude that the position of the United States in the world is weakening compared to other major economies. Michael Beckley looks at other measures, including geography, wealth, alliances, and demographics, and concludes that “This is the paradox of American power: the United States is a divided country, perpetually perceived as in decline, yet it consistently remains the wealthiest and most powerful state in the world—leaving competitors behind.” But, he says, all is not well: an urban-rural divide and a “hollow internationalism” threaten our stability and security. Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about whether the United States is in decline, how our advantages might create vulnerabilities, and how dysfunction at home affects America’s ability to wield influence abroad.
Chris has a shoutout for Gabe Murphy and his work on base realignment, Zack has a remembrance of recently-passed security scholar, practitioner, and mentor Joseph Nye, and Melanie criticizes the Biden administration for not coming clean about the extent of failure of the Gaza Pier.
Links:
- Michael Beckley, “The Strange Triumph of a Broken America: Why Power Abroad Comes with Dysfunction at Home,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2025.
- Michael Beckley, “The Age of American Unilateralism,” Foreign Affairs, April 16, 2025.
- Christopher Preble, “Trump’s Rise: Who’s to Blame?” Cato at Liberty, March 3, 2016.
- Alexander Cornwell, "US, Israel discuss possible US-led administration for Gaza, sources say," Reuters, May 7, 2025.
- Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/
- Gabe Murphy, “Base Instincts: A Case for Base Realignment and Closures at Home and Abroad,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, May 2025.
- John Hendel, “The $42 Billion Biden Internet Program Frustrating Dems in Swing States,” Politico, September 4, 2024.
- Alex Horton, “Biden’s Gaza Pier Was More Dangerous and Costly than Previously Known,” Washington Post, May 7, 2025.
- John Arnold, Immigration chart, X, May 11, 2025.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Rose Gottemoeller’s claim that arms control is not yet dead, but essential. Are there realistic prospects for a new arms control deal? If the Trump administration seriously seeks agreements with Russia and China, what should we demand? And what concessions might we offer? And what should be the objective of any new arms control agreements? Grievances for the Pentagon’s slow-motion train wreck, to worrisome reports of deep cuts at the State Department, and for the Trump administration’s reported minerals deal in Ukraine. Zack offers a heartfelt attaboy to his mentor Richard Armitage, who passed away earlier this month after a lifetime of service. Attas also to Secretary of State Marco Rubio for not cutting State more, and to the Carnegie Endowment for a new report on the foreign policy attitudes of Generation Z.
Links:
- Rose Gottemoeller, “Arms Control Is Not Dead Yet: America Should Pursue Parallel Nuclear Negotiations With China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, April 15, 2025
- Christopher S. Chivvis and Lauren Morganbesser, “What Gen Z Thinks About U.S. Foreign Policy,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 17, 2025
- Geoff Wilson, Christohper Preble, and Lucas Ruiz, Gambling on Armageddon, Stimson Center, February 19, 2025
- Nancy A. Youssef, Alexander Ward, and Vera Bergengruen, “Polygraph Threats, Leaks and Infighting: Pete Hegseth Rattled by Pentagon Chaos,” Wall Street Journal, April 24, 2025
- Supporting Stimson, https://www.stimson.org/support/
- “Armitage’s Story,” Last Days in Vietnam clip, PBS, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/lastdays-armitage/.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack launch their first Stimson-hosted Net Assessment show with a look at policymaking in the Trump administration. What are the major areas of consensus and disagreement within the administration? Through what lens will policy makers look at challenges such as China? And is a lack of ideological coherence a net positive or negative? Grievances for House GOP leaders playing games with the calendar to avoid a tough vote; for DOGE’s spending cuts that won’t drive the savings they claim, but that are creating havoc; and (again) for the Navy’s troubled Constellation frigate. Attas to Princeton President Christopher L. Eisgruber for standing up for academic freedom; for President Trump’s executive orders on the maritime industrial base and acquisition reform; and to Deputy DNI for Mission Integration William Ruger. And a bonus attagirl to our biggest fan: Melanie’s mom!
Links:
- Tanner Greer, “Obscurity by Design: Competing Priorities for America’s China Policy,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, March 27, 2025.
- Ross Douthat, “Trump Is on a Path to Failure,” New York Times, April 12, 2025.
- “Gambling on Armageddon: Costs and Risks of Nuclear Modernization,” Online Event, Stimson Center, May 1, 2025, 2-3 pm ET
- Joseph Trevithick, “First Constellation Frigate Only 10% Complete, Design Still Being Finalized,” TWZ, April 10, 2025
- Alistair MacDonald and Gordon Lubold, “The Warship That Shows Why the U.S. Navy Is Falling Behind China,” Wall Street Journal, March 20, 2025
- Emma Ashford, “Foreign Policy Is Much More than a Liberal vs. Conservative Brawl,” War on the Rocks, March 13, 2020
- Kenza Bryan and Demitri Sevastopulo, "Donald Trump Plans to Stockpile Deep-Sea Critical Metals to Counter China," Financial Times, April 12, 2025.
- Arthur Delaney, Igor Bobic, and Jennifer Bendery, "GOP Changes House Rules to Prevent Themselves from Blocking Trump's Tariffs," HuffPost, April 9, 2025.
- Erin Banco, Gram Slattery, and Humeyra Pamuk, "Trump Envoy's Embrace of Russian Demands Worries Republicans, US Allies," Reuters, April 12, 2025.
- “The University President Willing to Fight Trump,” The Daily, New York Times, April 9, 2925.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack are joined by a special guest for a big announcement. They also lament the demise of the Office of Net Assessment, debate the merits of DOGE, and discuss Secretary Hegseth’s visit to Asia and the strength of those alliances. If you would like to support Net Assessment, please consider donating to this special fund: https://www.stimson.org/support/
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether Israel will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and whether the United States would discourage, encourage, or participate in such an operation. They come to very different conclusions not just about the likelihood of strikes, but also the strategic logic. Chris laments the removal of historical information from U.S. government websites, Melanie has a grievance with Congress for turning again to a continuing resolution to fund government, and Zack criticizes the administration’s efforts to pull Congressionally appropriated funds from several storied American institutions.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie have a rather somber discussion about the Trump administration’s efforts to get a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Why is Trump so insistent on getting an immediate deal? What carrots and sticks, if any, are being given to each side? How will Europe respond to the obviously permanent change in the transatlantic relationship?
Chris has some hard words for Congress for its abdication of oversight of arms sales, Zack gives an atta to his brilliant wife, and Melanie is pretty darn proud of the work being done at War on the Rocks.
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In this show, Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss Timothy Heath’s recent paper on China’s military capabilities. Heath argues that the People's Liberation Army mostly focused on preserving the Chinese Communist Party’s rule, and that does not necessarily translate to combat effectiveness. But is Heath right? Do we make a mistake in focusing too much on what is apparent from the outside? And if the People's Liberation Army is not ready to fight right now, might it be in the future? Grievances for Lindsey Graham’s wish-casting on Trump and NATO, for the Trump administration blowing up transatlantic relations, and for European leaders being caught off guard. Attas for President Trump’s wisdom on nuclear weapons, to Narendra Modi for strengthening the U.S.-Indian relationship, and to Poland’s Donald Tusk, and France’s Ben Haddad, for taking the hard steps to try to build European self-reliance.
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The Net Assessment team discusses Frank Hoffman’s recent Joint Force Quarterly article about risk. They share concerns about the challenges that U.S. policymakers face in evaluating risk in a structured way. But they also fear that the solutions to these problems will require more fundamental changes to the U.S. bureaucracy than have been contemplated. Chris gives an attaboy to experts heading into the Trump administration, Melanie commends the White House’s interest in missile defense, and Zack gives the State Department kudos for bringing together an early meeting of Quad foreign ministers. All three lament the use of tariffs against U.S. neighbors who already agreed to trade deals during Trump’s first term.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie got together to talk about the second Trump administration’s agenda in the Western Hemisphere. What interests does the United States have in Latin America? Should the United States be pushing back on China’s activities in the region? If so, what carrots and sticks can the United States offer countries there? And will the administration officials eager to focus on the region be able to sustain that focus, when so many other parts of the world are competing for U.S. attention?
Chris gives the chilly weather the cold shoulder, Zack wishes the outgoing and new presidents would enforce the Tik Tok ban as the law requires, and Melanie thanks the departing chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence for his service.
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Back from their holiday break, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Michael Horowitz and Joshua Schwartz’s recent War on the Rocks’ article, which considers whether and how the United States and its allies should incorporate new technologies into their military forces. Is it time for cheap, uncrewed systems to replace larger, manned platforms? What is the optimal mix of high-end, exquisite systems, and low-end, attritable assets? And how should the Pentagon, NATO, and our other allies invest resources to be best situated for potential conflicts? President Joe Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s planned purchase of U.S. Steel receives not one but two grievances. Chris complains about misinformed reactions to the tragic incidents on New Year’s Eve. Hearty attas to President-elect Donald Trump for suggesting that U.S. allies could build U.S. warships, to the National Security Archive at George Washington University, and to Finland for seizing the Russian ship suspected of cutting undersea cables (and for the Finns’ general seriousness on matters of national defense).
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The fall of Bashar al-Assad is transforming not just Syria but also dynamics in the broader Middle East. What implications does this have for U.S. policy in the region? Should U.S. forces withdraw, or is there a continuing role for the American military in Syria? Melanie laments what appears to be the end of the road for Nippon Steel’s efforts to purchase U.S. Steel, Chris questions the panic around aircraft flying over New Jersey, and Zack grieves for South Korea after Yoon Suk Yeol’s disastrous martial law declaration.
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The team sat down to talk about the very bleak situation in Ukraine. Is it impossible for Ukraine to overcome its many challenges? Will Trump’s team be able to get Putin to the negotiating table, or is he all-in on victory? What roles might the US and Europe play in a ceasefire?
Chris highlights an article on the 1983 Proud Prophet wargame, Zack congratulates Alex Wong, who is heading into the Trump administration, and Melanie criticizes President Biden for pardoning his son.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss how and if the new Trump national security team can help America reset its strategic mindset. What would a successful overmatch strategy look like, in action? How would it differ from the strategy of the last four years? Can the United States mobilize the resources necessary to “ensure lopsided victories over the enemy in combat.”? And what tradeoffs would the United States and its partners need to make? Grievances for Donald Trump, for his plan to use recess appointments, and for his stated desire to rename U.S. military bases after loser Confederates, and to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto for some confusing statements about security in the South China Sea. Attas to President Biden for lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons against targets in Russia, to the EU for freeing up more funds that can be used for defense, and to France for approving a $438 million aid package to help the Philippines enhance their maritime security capabilities, and for training Ukrainian forces.
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The United States has a growing disconnect between its foreign policy objectives and the resources it devotes to national security, but inertia has hampered meaningful policy change in recent years. Chris and Melanie discuss a recent article from Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim that analyzes the challenges associated with overcoming status quo bias. Chris commends Taiwan for purchasing new missiles for defense purposes and Melanie praises Australia for adapting to the new missile age.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down for a retrospective episode about the Biden administration’s foreign and defense policy. Using U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Foreign Affairs article “America’s Strategy of Renewal,” they ask if the United States is better off in terms of national security than it was four years ago. What are the most important accomplishments of the Biden team, and what have been its critical failures? Are our alliance relationships as strong as Blinken wants us to believe? What opportunities were missed, and which were seized?
Zack and Melanie are amazed by what Elon Musk has done with SpaceX, and Chris is disappointed that the administration hasn’t shut the door on Ukraine joining NATO.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the American military footprint in Europe. Why does the United States maintain such a large presence there? Are there other ways to accomplish our goals with a smaller physical presence there? And what outcomes would we see if the United States made major troop reductions on the continent? Grievances for Tony Blinken’s tone-deaf article in Foreign Affairs and toward Europe for its continued trade with Russia, while Zack expresses concern for New Zealand’s navy following the loss of one its newer warships. Attapeople to Cato’s Colin Grabow for a sensible proposal to enhance the U.S. shipbuilding industry; to the United States and South Korea for a creative cost-sharing agreement; and to the U.K. government for ceding control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Carter Malkasian's recent article on "America’s crisis of deterrence.” They debate whether recent policy failures are a breakdown of deterrence theory or U.S. policy, and, if so, what to do about them. Chris advocates for the benefits of nuclear power, Melanie expresses excitement about French spies, and Zack commends semiconductor producers for delivering on the CHIPS Act.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about America’s nuclear policy. Are we in a new “nuclear age,” as some Biden administration officials and experts have argued? Does a bleak security environment, where China is rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal and Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, mean the United States should develop more and different nuclear weapons? Should we be more open to allies and partners going nuclear?
Chris is grateful for foundations that support serious policy research, including the Stanton Foundation, which has just made a $45 million gift to MIT’s Security Studies Program, Zack has a grievance for the corrupt government of Venezuela, and Melanie (again) laments the bipartisan opposition to Nippon Steel buying U.S. Steel.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether national security has been defined too loosely. If too many things fall under the category of national security, do we risk missing the really important ones? How should policymakers decide what is a national security threat--and what isn’t? What are the first-order national security threats facing the United States? And how can government decision-makers impose some discipline on how they think about and manage true national security threats? Grievances for China’s (other) bad behavior in the South China Sea and to the Military Sealift Command for taking 17 support ships out of service due to inadequate staffing. Attapeople for the Biden administration in helping to keep the U.S.-Chinese relationship from going completely off the rails; to the U.S. intelligence community and the U.S. media for their deft handling of Iranian attempted election interference; and to Ely Ratner and others in the Biden administration for negotiating a new compact with India.
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Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the findings of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy. They agree that there is a mismatch between U.S. defense strategy and the resources required to execute it, but they disagree on whether and how to adjust the strategy or resources to align the two. Chris laments the saga of the failed Gaza pier, Melanie gives an attaboy to Tyler Cowen, and Zack commends the Ukrainian military for striking a blow against Russia.
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As Africa is seeing a dramatic rise in violent conflict and elected governments there are falling to coups, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to discuss US policy for the region. What are America’s national security and other critical interests in Africa? What should the United States do to protect those interests? Does it matter that Russia and China are exerting military and economic influence in the region? Is it possible to both safeguard our national security interests there while upholding our professed democratic values? Chris criticizes the failure of Army officials to properly deal with a mentally-ill reservist who killed 18 people at a bowling alley in Maine, Zack condemns the Maduro regime for refusing to publish honest results from Venezuela’s presidential election, and Melanie gives a send-off to friend of the show David Pappalardo, who has completed his term as air and space force attaché at the French Embassy in Washington.
Melanie, Chris, and Zack discuss the steps that European countries can and should take to prepare for possible U.S. retrenchment from the continent. Can NATO survive a second Trump administration? Or should we be equally concerned about a second Biden administration for transatlantic relations? Grievances for Justin Trudeau and Canada’s meager defense budgets, to those who kept President Biden’s health problems a secret, and to the Pentagon for acquiescing to the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile's rising costs. Attas to the Secret Service agents who risked their lives to shield former President Trump, to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro for his handling of the tragic death of a fellow Pennsylvanian during the assassination attempt on former President Trump, and to those members of Congress starting to ask hard questions about the F-35.
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Upcoming elections could pull France to the right and the United Kingdom to the left, so the Net Assessment team discusses how this might alter policies in Paris and London. They discuss articles by Ulrike Franke and David Lammy, which sketch out the implications for French and British policy, respectively. In particular, what would it mean for the European Union and NATO if London doubles down on Europe just as France pulls away? Chris questions the value of Congressionally-required unfunded priorities lists, Melanie applauds Kaja Kallas's selection as the European Union’s chief diplomat, and Zack commends progress made to host nuclear-powered submarines in Perth, Australia.
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In the first Net Assessment recorded before a live audience, Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss the U.S.-Turkish relationship. Has America “lost” Turkey? What are the benefits and limitations of transactional relationships, rather than alliances? How should NATO manage alliance members whose interests and behavior seem to be at odds with alliance purposes? They then take questions from participants in The Fund for American Studies programs. Chris has a grievance for a Pentagon program to discredit the Chinese COVID-19 vaccine, Zack condemns China’s ongoing aggression against the Philippines, and Melanie has an attaboy for Bill Gates’s effort to build smaller and safer nuclear reactors.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the nature and extent of China’s engagement in the Middle East. Should the United States be concerned about China’s growing involvement in Middle Eastern affairs? If so, what can and should be done about it? Perhaps just as importantly, what should not be done? Grievances for those who dreamed up the Gaza Pier debacle, Sen. Roger Wicker for his supposed “generational” commitment to growing the Pentagon’s budget, and for Canadian parliamentarians who are just a little bit too close to nefarious foreign actors (“semi-witting” accomplices?). Attapeople to the Philippines’s President Bongbong Marcos and to the 12 jurors in Manhattan.
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Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher’s recent article about U.S. strategy toward China. They disagree about the Biden administration’s approach and whether the United States needs a final objective. Melanie questions those expressing condolences for the “Butcher of Tehran,” Chris cautions against a major security deal with Saudi Arabia, and Zack commends Tsai Ing-wen on eight years of steady leadership on cross-Strait issues.
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With American military and economic help on the way to Kyiv, Chris, Zack and Melanie discuss the Russo-Ukrainian war. Will the new American aid package make a difference in the outcome of the conflict? What should be Ukraine’s strategy going forward? What, if anything, can Ukraine and its partners realistically do to get Russia to make meaningful concessions at the negotiating table?
Chris has a very proud attaboy for his son who is graduating from college and moving into the real world, Zack questions the effectiveness of a protest in Washington, D.C., and Melanie criticizes Greenpeace for a very bad idea that could have devastating consequences.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Gavin Wilde’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review on foreign media manipulation. How vulnerable are citizens of democracies to manipulation through social media? Is a more open and less hierarchical media space a national security threat? And what, if anything, should policymakers in democracies do about this issue? Grievances for China blocking popular apps, Marjorie Taylor Green for her shenanigans surrounding the foreign aid vote, and to the F-35, the gift that keeps on giving (to the tune of $2 trillion); Attas for Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko for an important article on Ukraine, to Mike Johnson for taking a principled stand on the foreign aid bill, and to the first Australian officers to participate in AUKUS nuclear submarine training.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the 2024 ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute State of Southeast Asia Survey, in which regional experts assess power trends and perceptions among the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The report yields some warning signs for the United States in the region, suggesting that the Biden team has much more work to do in Southeast Asia. Chris and Melanie worry about American shipbuilding while Zack commends and critiques American and Japanese leaders for announcements connected to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Washington.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment, created by the U.S. intelligence agencies. The report focuses on state actors and transnational issues that could be challenges to the United States in the coming year. What major threats does the United States face in the next year? What are we too worried about? What should we be concerned about that we aren’t paying attention to? With so many challenges, where should our focus be?
Zack congratulates contributors to the new BlueBlaze newsletter, Chris commends the Veterans Studies Association, and Melanie wonders why New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez is still in Congress and getting classified briefings.
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Chris, Melanie and Zack take a close look at the United States’ relationship with countries in Latin America. Why has the United States neglected Latin America in the last several decades? Should the United States government up its game in order to compete for influence with China in its own hemisphere? And, if so, how? And will improving U.S. ties in the region help to alleviate the immigration situation on the southern border?
Grievances for Donald Trump's love for TikTok, Americans ignoring Haiti, and Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz who can't get along. Attas to Sen Roger Wicker for noting for months that there won't be enough money for shipbuilding — and being right!; to the members of the House who voted to compel TikTok to divest from Bytedance; and to Sen. Bernie Sanders and five other senators for calling for a new Truman Commission to root out wartime profiteering.
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Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss an article on the concept of unbalanced multipolarity by Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper. They debate what might happen if the United States pulls back from its leadership role in Europe and the rest of the world. Would America’s absence lead to global or regional disorder? Would allies step up to take some of the burden off Washington? Or would competing regional blocs emerge? Melanie laments the lack of progress on funding the Compacts of Free Association, Chris criticizes a publication decision by the New York Times, and Zack questions JD Vance’s approach to addressing defense industry shortfalls.
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Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy. Is this document really a strategy? What are the biggest problems we need to fix with respect to our defense industrial base? Considering the state of where we are now, is it even possible to get our industrial house in order in the near term to deter or prevail in a conflict with an adversary?
Chris has a grievance for those who couldn’t believe Donald Trump’s recent NATO comments (where have they been for the last eight years?), Zack thanks Rep. Mike Gallagher for his service, and Melanie is unhappy with the response to legislators trying to come to an agreement on the difficult issue of immigration reform.
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Chris, Melanie and Zack review the Council on Foreign Relations’ annual Preventive Priorities Survey, which asked foreign policy experts to rank 30 current and possible future conflicts relative to their likelihood and impact on U.S. national interests. The leading threat, according to these experts, was of political violence or domestic terrorism in the United States associated with the 2024 presidential election. Other leading threats were the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East arising out of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and of continued migration from Central America and Mexico. The three consider these, as well as others that fell farther down the list, and asked, how can these be prioritized? What is being done to stop them? And what is the broader value in engaging in these ranking exercises in the first place?
Grievances for the Biden administration’s short-sighted new regulations on liquified natural gas, U.S. Middle East policy (does it make sense to anyone?), and the way our broken politics manages to infect even an all-American love story like Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Can we just give it a rest?
Attaboys to Navy Comptroller and friend-of-War of the Rocks Russell Rumbaugh, and Capt. Chris “Chowda” Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), and to the show for reaching 1 million downloads.
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Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate whether the international order is fraying and if so, what to do about it. They focus in particular on the recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and discuss how the United States should respond. Melanie questions Liz Truss's support of expedited defense exports to China and Chris laments the lack of communication around Lloyd Austin's delegation of authority while Zack makes Chris a job offer he can refuse.
Chris, Zack, and Melanie ring in the new year with a discussion on whether or not "The U.S. Needs More Foreign Entanglements," as writer Andreas Kluth argues. What, exactly, is an entangling alliance? How should the United States manage relationships with some of our more tricky partners? Is it politically possible to extricate ourselves from relationships that no longer serve American interests? Besides giving the usual grievances and attaboys, the gang looks ahead in 2024. Chris would like to see more coverage of the positive aspects of AI, Melanie is keeping eyes on the new Argentine President Milei as he sets about trying to reform the economic and political systems, and Zack is pessimistic about the upcoming presidential election. This episode's reading.
On this show, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the so-called “new Washington Consensus” – a reaction to decades of trade liberalization and free market economics that, some warn, has undermined national security and left the United States and others vulnerable to economic coercion. In a recent article, Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman spell out the rationale behind new restrictions on foreign trade and investment and warn that “nothing less than a transformation of the U.S. government” is necessary to ensure that measures taken to protect our security don’t also weaken the global economy. Grievances for the impenetrable National Defense Authorization Act, Venezuela’s land grab, and Sen. Rick Scott’s ploy to designate garlic -- yes, garlic -- as vital to U.S. national security. Attapeople in this holiday season to those who deliver our packages, to Congress for delivering the National Defense Authorization Act, and to Finland for promising to deliver more munitions in 2024.
This episode's reading.
Net Assessment is back! Chris, Melanie, and Zack return after a hiatus and start by debating a recent article entitled “The Dysfunctional Superpower” by Robert Gates. They agree that Washington is deeply dysfunctional, but disagree about what can be done to overcome political obstacles and the degree to which this dysfunction gives Russia and China an edge. Chris questions additional inflation adjustments for fixed price defense contracts, Melanie criticizes the United Nations' unwillingness to recognize sexual violence in Gaza, and Zack welcomes new colleague Todd Harrison to the American Enterprise Institute.
This episode's reading.
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Ashley Tellis’s newest article, “America’s Bad Bet on India.” Tellis argues that if America thinks India will fight on its side in a conflict with China, “Washington’s expectations of India are misplaced….New Delhi will never involve itself in any U.S. confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its own security.” Should the United States expect the world’s largest democracy to come to its aid if there is a conflict with China over Taiwan? What does New Delhi want out of its relationship with Washington? Will India’s democratic backsliding affect its relationship with the United States? Chris has a shoutout for Dr. Jennifer Lind for an article well done, Zack has complaints about the overreaction to news of Cuba possibly hosting a Chinese spy base, and Melanie congratulates War on the Rocks friend Will Inboden on his new post.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/is-washington-making-a-bad-bet-on-india
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Ashley Tellis’s newest article, “America’s Bad Bet on India.” Tellis argues that if America thinks India will fight on its side in a conflict with China, “Washington’s expectations of India are misplaced….New Delhi will never involve itself in any U.S. confrontation with Beijing that does not directly threaten its own security.” Should the United States expect the world’s largest democracy to come to its aid if there is a conflict with China over Taiwan? What does New Delhi want out of its relationship with Washington? Will India’s democratic backsliding affect its relationship with the United States? Chris has a shoutout for Dr. Jennifer Lind for an article well done, Zack has complaints about the overreaction to news of Cuba possibly hosting a Chinese spy base, and Melanie congratulates War on the Rocks friend Will Inboden on his new post.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss a recent article by Rosella Cappella Zielinski and Samuel Gerstle in the Texas National Security Review. Zielinski and Gerstle explain why the United States should fund the defense budget with higher taxes, not more debt, while conceding that this will be a tough sell for a country trying to maintain the status quo, as opposed to rising powers like China that are trying to upset it. Are they right? Must taxes be raised in the United States to pay for competition with China? If so, can the Biden administration and Congress craft a message that will resonate with the public? Or is there another way to produce the money that will go for long-term defense? Grievances for Jake Sullivan’s speech at the Brookings Institute, yet the latest sign of the Biden administration’s protectionist turn; NATO’s plan to expand to the Indo-Pacific; and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama) for blocking military promotions. Shoutouts to the Australian government for their new Defence Strategic Review and a remembrance of Allen Gyngell, the noted Australian security expert, who recently passed away.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/paying-the-costs-of-competition
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the world is multipolar and discuss what the United States can do to win support for its preferred policies, particularly in the Global South. They disagree on multipolarity but agree that Washington must pay more attention to non-aligned countries in the months and years ahead. Chris gives a backhanded attaboy to China’s ambassador to France, Melanie commends Elon Musk for SpaceX's Starship launch, and Zack criticizes him for Twitter's labeling of state-affiliated media.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/multipolarity-what-is-it-good-for
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about a new article by Eric Schmidt on whether the United States can win an innovation race with China. Where is the United States ahead and where is it behind in the tech competition? How should the U.S. government work with private enterprise to maximize defense innovation and procurement? Can the United States overcome obstacles, many self-imposed, to accelerate and sharpen innovative enterprises?
Chris congratulates Dr. Elizabeth Samet for a book well done, Zack is unhappy about possible leaks of American intelligence assessments about the Ukraine war, and Melanie congratulates Congress for doing its job.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/04/technology-defense-and-the-american-chinese-competition
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss several recent articles focused on alliance burden sharing. Should America want Europe to be dependent on it for Europe’s defense? Is the leverage the United States obtains over European allies because of their dependence worth the cost? Is it even possible for Europe to have collective defense? Should the American public accept that U.S citizens will have to defend Europe because European governments won’t defend themselves? Will the United States inevitably be drawn into intra-European fights?
Grievances toward the U.S. mission in Syria, the Biden administration’s next Summit of Democracies, and Tik Tok. Attas for Gen. Mark Milley, Israeli citizens protesting a judicial reform proposal that lacks wide popular support, and to a group of Ukrainians who have just completed training in Oklahoma on the Patriot air defense system.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/better-burden-sharing-with-allies
Is AUKUS flawed by design? Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the AUKUS deal, particularly the newly announced plan for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Is this the best way to get a critical capability in Australian hands? Does it make sense from a cost or capability perspective? And should the United States be worried about selling Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s, right at the moment of greatest need? In addition, Chris commends Europe for stepping up, Melanie critiques President Biden’s execution of the CHIPS Act, and Zack warns about underinvestment in Asia.
This episode's reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/is-aukus-flawed-by-design
Chris and Melanie sit down with Aaron Stein, chief content officer at War on the Rocks and co-author of a new report on Turkey’s new, more independent foreign policy. Why has Ankara changed its foreign policy course over the last few decades? What does this foreign policy mean for United States interests? How should Turkey’s NATO allies respond when it seems to act against the alliance? What might the upcoming elections mean for the Turkish-U.S. relationship? Chris is unhappy with some defenses of the Iraq invasion, Aaron praises those who worked so hard out of the spotlight to evacuate people safely from Afghanistan, and Melanie is impressed with some journalism at the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This episode's reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/turkeys-more-independent-foreign-policy
Melanie, Zack, and Chris, survey the course of Russia’s brutal war of aggression in Ukraine at the one-year point, with a focus on a recent paper by RAND’s Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe. How did we get here? What key assumptions have been tested? And what does that mean for the future? How do U.S. and Ukrainian interests in this war align or conflict? Does a long war serve anyone’s interest? And what are the prospects that this war will end any time soon? Grievances for China’s mishandling of the balloon fiasco, and to Disney for bowing to the Chinese Communist Party’s implicit censorship. Attapeople to those negotiating a new Compact of Free Association with countries in the South Pacific, for the few smart voices trying to dial down the hysteria over balloons, and to those members of Congress hoping to repeal the 2002 Iraq war AUMF.
This Episode's Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/one-year-of-war-in-ukraine
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Frank Hoffman’s recent article in War on the Rocks about the broader implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine. They discuss whether defensive systems are dominant and how long Russia will take to recapitalize its forces, as well as what this means for future conflicts and U.S. posture globally. Chris warns that the United States is not learning from past conflicts, Melanie welcomes continued support for Hong Kongers, and Zack laments Turkey’s renewed opposition to Sweden’s entry into NATO.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/learning-lessons-from-ukraine-is-defense-dominant
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about a new assessment of President Biden’s foreign policy two years into his administration. Using “A Better Biden Doctrine” by Stephen Wertheim and Matthew Duss as the foundation, the team looks at how well Biden has kept the foreign policy promises he made on the campaign trail, whether he has made incremental or fundamental changes, and what he might be able to accomplish in the next two years. They also consider what policies progressives might hope are given more attention the rest of this term. Chris and Zack have complaints about negligent handling of classified materials by high level officials and the excuses for it, and Melanie gives a shout out to Canada for some new defense initiatives.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/looking-back-at-president-bidens-foreign-policy
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss whether it is possible, and wise, to try to stave off a conflict with China over Taiwan — possibly for a very long time. A recent article by Jude Blanchette and Ryan Hass urges policymakers to find ways to forestall conflict. But is it a mistake to presume that conflict with China is avoidable? Should the United States make peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait the government's overarching goal, or should Washington agree that at some point there will be military conflict, and do everything possible to prepare for that now? Or is there a bipartisan consensus in Washington that cannot be contained pushing for confrontation with China in general, and especially over Taiwan? Attapeople to outgoing members of Congress Elaine Luria and Peter Meijer, and to Taiwan for offering effective COVID vaccines to China. Grievances for China’s reckless and shortsighted COVID-19 policy, for Tik Tok spying on people, and for the Navy’s troubled littoral combat ship.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/debating-the-defense-of-taiwan
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate nuclear proliferation in Northeast Asia. Are Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling, North Korea’s advancing capabilities, and China’s nuclear modernization program likely to spur additional nuclear proliferation? How satisfied are South Korea and Japan with current U.S. nuclear extended deterrence guarantees? And what should policymakers in Washington do in response to questions about the U.S. nuclear umbrella? In their last show of 2022, Chris says goodbye to Twitter (at least for now). Melanie asks for a more serious debate about immigration. And Zack commends the work and collegiality of the think tank community.
This episode's reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/the-risks-of-nuclear-proliferation-in-asia
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Richard Fontaine's recent Foreign Affairs article on prioritizing national security threats. Why is it so hard for those in charge of the nation’s security to pick and stick to the most important national security priorities? How should the United States determine where scarce resources are allocated? If China is the nation’s main challenge, can the United States continue to expend resources at the current rate in Ukraine?
Chris is concerned about people who are hoping a new civil war starts in Afghanistan, Zack is dismayed at those insisting that the United States openly side with those in China protesting the government’s lockdown and other policies, and Melanie has an attaboy for Dr. John Hamre, recipient of the Reagan Foundation’s Peace Through Strength award.
This episode's reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/making-hard-national-security-choices
Chris, Melanie, and Zack try to understand the U.S. government’s approach to global trade. Two successive presidential administrations have turned their backs on trade liberalization, and there is little enthusiasm in Congress for free trade – and a fair amount of outright hostility. For all the talk of “friendshoring” and building resilient supply chains, Washington's allies and partners seem mostly concerned about rising protectionism in the United States. If Washington is no longer leading the world on trade, who is? Or who will? Or is the United States trying to lead toward a particular type of trade, one that doesn’t benefit revisionist autocrats? And will that fly?
Grievances for Joe Biden’s granddaughter, for getting married at the White House when the APEC summit was going on, to Ukraine and its supporters for falsely claiming an errant missile that landed in Poland was a deliberate Russian attack, and to incoming House Republicans planning a series of hearings designed to score political points. Attapeople for recent authors Will Inboden for his new book on Ronald Reagan, and Arthur Ross award winners Carter Malkasian and Mary Elise Sarotte, and an Atta Vice President to Kamala Harris for her planned trip to the Philippines.
Episode Reading:
warontherocks.com/2022/11/why-the-united-states-no-longer-leads-on-free-trade
Is the National Defense Strategy actually a strategy? Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Biden administration’s recently released National Defense Strategy. Do integrated deterrence, campaign, and enduring advantage add up to more than the sum of their parts? Does the unclassified version of the National Defense Strategy make any hard choices to connect ends and means? Melanie commends those U.S. service members who evacuated thousands of people from Afghanistan. Chris complains about incessant political advertisements ahead of the midterm elections. And Zack thanks his teammates from the Alliance for Securing Democracy.
Episode Reading:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/11/debating-the-national-defense-strategy
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the recently-released Biden-Harris National Security Strategy. Several months delayed, the document recognizes that the United States is in an intense competition with China and asserts that Washington will look for ways to cooperate with both allies and adversaries on important global challenges such as climate change. Does the NSS assess the threat environment correctly? How will the United States manage both competition and cooperation with adversaries? Is the U.S. doing what it must to “outmaneuver” China during this “decisive decade”?
Chris is bothered that it is hard to have an honest debate about what the United States is doing in Ukraine, Zack discusses the legacy of Ash Carter, and Melanie is appalled that American military pilots have been selling their services to the Chinese military.
Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/assessing-the-national-security-strategy
Chris, Zack, and special guest host Rachel Hoff of the Ronald Reagan Institute, explore the recent article by Dani Rodrik and Stephen Walt “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World." Rodrik and Walt propose a framework — or “meta-regime” — that affirms well-established norms of international behavior (as enshrined in the U.N. Charter, for example), while also preserving space for states to act unilaterally or multilaterally, but ideally in ways that do not increase the risk of conflict. But is it even realistic to speak of a rules-based order? And should we want one? Some Americans chafe at the notion of constraints on U.S. power. And what are the actual prospects for international cooperation at all, given the increasingly competitive nature of the U.S.-China relationship?
Grievances for Joe Biden’s talk of nuclear Armageddon, and toward the Saudis for colluding with the Russians (and others) to raise gas prices – and maybe help Republicans in the mid-term elections. An atta-secretary to Lloyd Austin for his plan to remove the names of violent insurrectionists from U.S. military bases. And, in a first, Zack praises Chris Preble … for convincing the Biden administration to finally release the National Security Strategy. We’re sure that’s what did it.
This episode's reading:
www.warontherocks.com/2022/10/searching-for-the-elusive-rules-based-order
The Net Assessment crew discusses possible military lessons from the war in Ukraine. It is too early to take away any definitive lessons from the war, but it is possible to start identifying and asking some key questions. Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate recent work by Rob Lee and others about why Russia’s army, air force, and cyber capabilities have proven so ineffective. Chris also asks why the National Security Strategy still isn’t published. Zack suggests the world should encourage and welcome Russian men fleeing conscription. And Melanie commends women in Iran for standing up for their rights.
This episode's reading: warontherocks.com/2022/09/military-lessons-from-the-war-in-ukraine
This week, Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about a new report, “Rebuild: Toolkit for a New American Industrial Policy,” from the Center for a New American Security. The United States government has a number of ways to intervene in the economy to advance the national interest. The use of tariffs and the Defense Production Act by the last two administrations, as well as passage of the Infrastructure and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act, are measures that some argue will help the United States compete more aggressively with China. Should the United States have an industrial policy? What objectives should an industrial policy serve, and how is that determined? How would such a policy be implemented?
Zack gives a shoutout to the Institute for the Study of War for helping us better understand the war in Ukraine, Chris praises Cornell University Press executive editor Roger Haydon on his retirement, and Melanie suggests a good read on how the United States and Taiwan can best prepare the island for a Chinese invasion.
This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/galvanizing-americas-defense-industrial-policy
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Doyle Hodges’ recent article scrutinizing Gen. Mark Milley’s behavior in the waning months of the Trump administration. Journalists have rendered a relatively favorable treatment of Milley’s insubordination, but Hodges questions the long-term implications for civil-military relations. Should senior military officers be expected to follow lawful orders, even if they are morally objectionable? Or is resignation the only proper response when those in uniform cannot faithfully execute an order? And is the problem of civil-military relations unique to the Trump administration or does the Milley case portend a future in which the military’s standing is filtered through the same partisan lenses that inflict our politics across the board? Grievances for two former Pennsylvania judges who sentenced juveniles to for-profit prisons (and got rich), toward India for joining Russia’s military exercises, and to President Joe Biden abusing his authority to relieve student debt. Atta-people to the Ukrainian military for its first major counter-offensive of the war with Russia, to Clayton Forrester and all others behind the decision to re-introduce wolves to Yellowstone National Park, and to all those behind an important essay series exploring the future of airpower.
This episode's reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/not-their-plane-to-land-generals-thwarting-the-chain-of-command
Melanie and Zack are joined by the RAND Corporation’s Mike Mazarr for a discussion about Taiwan. They examine an article by Matt Turpin for the Aspen Institute and debate what is driving increased tensions, and why both the United States and China blame the other for changing the status quo. Melanie calls out onerous education requirements for daycare providers, Mike pleads for deeper discussion of first principles in national security, and Zack gives an attaboy to Bill Russell. Episode reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/is-u-s-support-to-taiwan-substantive-or-symbolic
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about the NATO’s new 2022 Strategic Concept, the first update since 2010. A lot has changed since then. What does the new concept get right or wrong? What missions should NATO be focused on at this time? Is the United States a sucker for continuing to carry so much of the burden of European security, or is it in our interest to do so? Can we even have an honest debate about this? Zack turns his CHIPS Act grievance into congratulations, Chris hates politicians crafting legislation merely to score points against the other side while veterans in need of care suffer, and Melanie piles another complaint on the ACLU.
For episode reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/is-natos-vision-for-its-future-right
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Quincy Institute’s new report on U.S. defense strategy in Asia. They applaud the report for presenting a detailed plan and for highlighting the areas of both agreement and disagreement among the authors. They question the political feasibility of the strategy and whether it is sufficient to address the challenges that China poses. Zack remembers Shinzo Abe for his vision, Chris criticizes Joe Biden for a fist-bump, and Melanie commends the Webb telescope’s incredible images.
For episode reading, click here: https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/active-denial-or-in-denial
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider the economic measures taken by the United States and Europe to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, especially those pertaining to oil and natural gas. To what extent are these policies responsible for rising gasoline prices? Can other measures be taken to replace Russian oil on the global market? Or should Western governments also employ demand restrictions, including possibly compulsory measures to discourage or prevent energy usage? And what political price should democratically elected governments be willing to pay in order to affirm the moral and strategic imperative of defeating Russia’s aggression against Ukraine? Grievances for Columbia’s Jeffrey Sachs who claimed that COVID originated in a U.S. lab, for super-virtuous people who take to Twitter on the Fourth of July to talk about how horrible the United States is, and toward self-absorbed TikTokers known as “Gentleminions.” Attapeople to FIRE (the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression) and to the Quincy Institute for a smart report on defending Asia, and an atta-thing for all the ways that computers make our lives better (until they kill us).
Episode reading at: https://warontherocks.com/2022/07/an-energy-strategy-to-defeat-russia
Chris, Melanie, and Zack take a look at the Summit of the Americas, which was held in Los Angeles at the beginning of June. By all accounts, the summit was poorly organized, and attending leaders were unimpressed with the lack of consultation before the event and with the initiatives set forth by the United States during the conference. The heads-of-state of several countries, including Mexico and Guatemala, refused to attend in solidarity with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, which were not invited because the U.S. government considers them to be led by autocratic regimes. Does the planning and execution of the summit tell us anything about the Biden administration’s foreign policy more broadly? What should our policies towards Central and South American countries be? What is the connection between the administration’s domestic and foreign policies? Are President Joe Biden and his team unwilling to make hard choices in foreign policy because the decisions will be unpopular with important domestic constituencies?
Chris is appalled by the Texas GOP’s new platform, Zack is grateful that the COVID-19 vaccine for small children has finally been approved, and Melanie wishes Democrats would stop boosting “Stop the Steal” candidates across the country.
Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/is-bidens-approach-to-latin-america-a-problem
On the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Midway, the crew discussed the Pacific Islands. Beijing has sought, but thus far failed, to strike a deal with 10 of the islands. Meanwhile, U.S. leaders are promising to devote more time and attention to the region. What is at stake? Can U.S. leaders deliver on their promises to the region? Chris also calls out U.S. political leaders for lack of action to protect the American people against gun violence, Melanie recognizes Queen Elizabeth for her many decades of leadership, and Zack hopes for good news on COVID-19 vaccinations for kids under five.
This episode's reading can be found here: https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/musings-on-competition-in-the-pacific
Chris, Melanie, and Zack consider Finland and Sweden’s applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Is a larger NATO necessarily a more effective alliance? And what are the practical implications of defending these two countries from an apparently revanchist Russia? What does this mean for the future of European strategic autonomy? And does this signal a hardening of the old Cold War lines of West versus East, or, in this case, all of Europe versus Russia? Atta-peoples go out to the fact checkers, Australia’s Labor Party, and Rep. Mike Gallagher for waging war on military acronyms. Gripes and grievances for baby formula shortages, the Biden administration’s stinginess toward Asian allies, and (lobbyist) Gil Garcetti.
For episode reading, go to: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/debating-sweden-and-finlands-entry-into-nato
Zack, Chris, and Melanie get together to discuss the latest Space Threat Assessment report from the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. People all over the world are ever-more dependent on assets in space for normal activity in their daily lives, but there are few rules of the road in place to manage space behavior. Will it be possible to develop a system of cooperation that allows for freedom of movement in space but also protects the economic and national security of all countries? Should we be concerned about the rapid growth of private satellites and related equipment in space? Secretary of Defense Austin said that “Space is already an area of great power competition.” Given the interests of China, Russia, and the United States in space, are we heading into a space arms race?
Chris has an attaboy for a thrilling victory at the Kentucky Derby, Zack remembers a friend who has departed too soon, and Melanie doubles down on America.
Episode Reading: https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/out-of-this-world/
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the National Defense Strategy — at least the unclassified details that are currently available. Does the professed strategy align with the budget? What, if anything, appears to be new and different in the Biden team’s approach? And what does it say that strategy documents are being rewritten but budget decisions have already been made? Chris laments student loan forgiveness. Melanie thanks some departed leaders. And Zack congratulates academics heading into government service.
Chris and Zack are joined by special guest co-host, Emily Harding of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The three review the Biden administration's latest responses to the crisis in Ukraine before turning to the issue of information security, both in the U.S. government and in the private sector. What information is, and should be, classified? And are we striking the right balance between keeping government secrets secret, and ensuring that private information about customers and users is well protected? Emily has a grievance about the apparent poisoning of Ukrainian peace negotiators and Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, and the subsequent response by U.S. officials who seemed to cast doubt on the story. For the second show in a row, Zack has a grievance toward Chris, and Chris is cold and cranky because his March Madness bracket was busted after the first weekend. Attapeople to the U.S. intelligence community for strategically releasing information that reset the terms of the debate over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Emily gives a shout-out to working mother and Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson for being an inspiration to other working moms. And Chris praises his colleagues Emma Ashford and Kelly Grieco.
For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/keeping-the-right-secrets-secret
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. They explain what has been surprising to each of them thus far in the conflict. Why has Russia struggled so mightily? Why has Ukraine fought so effectively? And why have the United States, Europe, and other democracies been so united? Most importantly, what are possible pathways to end the war? Chris commends all those helping Ukrainian refugees in these desperate times, Melanie gives attagirls to her mom and sister, and Zack has a grievance with the now-unretired Tom Brady.
For episode reading, go to: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/russias-war-in-ukraine-how-does-this-end
On a somber day, Chris, Melanie, Zack, ponder the implications of the war in Ukraine. What, if any, lessons should we take away from the inability to deter Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine? With the war now raging, what measures should be employed to help the Ukrainians and complicate Russian war aims — and what should be held back? What are the escalation risks? Are broad-based economic sanctions likely to be effective, and under what circumstances might they be lifted? And what does the post-Ukraine world look like, especially in terms of Europe’s defense posture? A grievance for the second show in a row toward Vladimir Putin (obviously), and to those in the Twitterverse attempting to use the crisis as an opportunity to score ideological points. Melanie scolds those Republicans who attended a white nationalist conference and talks about what they mean for of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy. A hearty attaboy to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who has shown remarkable courage and resolve under pressure, to Kenya’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Martin Kimani, for an inspiring speech criticizing Russia’s attempt to redraw borders by force, and to international sports leagues for shunning Russia.
For this episode's reading, check out: https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/putins-taunt-what-are-you-going-to-do-about-it
Melanie, Chris, and Zack sit down to talk about the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, which was released last week as the national security advisor was warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Why did the administration push to get this report out so quickly? Is there anything new here, or does it just continue the policies of the last few administrations? Why the lack of direct focus on China, which is causing so much trouble in the region? What does “integrated deterrence,” which is the foundation of the security piece of the strategy, mean? Will crises in Ukraine and elsewhere distract the Biden national security team from accomplishing its objectives in the Indo-Pacific?
Chris has some problems with Vladmir Putin, Zack has some kind words for a departing colleague, and Melanie thanks Rep. Luria for pushing back on incomprehensible military jargon.
For this episode's reading, check out warontherocks.com
As observers in Washington look back at the Biden administration’s first year and prepare for its forthcoming national security and defense strategies, the Net Assessment crew debates the virtues of muddling through. Does the Biden team have a grand plan? Does it need one? And are errors of omission worse than those of commission?
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate recent articles on muddling through by Josh Rovner, Richard Fontaine, and Anne-Marie Slaughter. Chris gives an attaboy to Tom Brady, since he hasn’t won enough already. Melanie issues both a grievance and an attaboy to Newt Gingrich. And Zack hails the wonders of easily available satellite imagery.
Links:
Joshua Rovner, “How Long can Biden Muddle Through on China?” War on the Rocks, Jan. 26, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/how-long-can-biden-muddle-through-on-china/.
Richard Fontaine, “The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism,” Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/case-against-foreign-policy-solutionism.
Richard Fontaine, “Washington’s Missing China Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-01-14/washingtons-missing-china-strategy.
Anne-Marie Slaughter, “It’s Time to Get Honest About the Biden Doctrine,” New York Times, Nov. 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/opinion/biden-foreign-policy.html.
Amy B. Zegart, Spies, Lies, and Algorithms (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2022), https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691147130/spies-lies-and-algorithms.
Stacie L. Pettyjohn, "Spiking the Problem: Developing a Resilient Posture in the Indo-Pacific with Passive Defenses," War on the Rocks, Jan. 10, 2022.
Dustin Walker, “The Pentagon is in Desperate Need of an Intervention from the Top,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 27, 2022.
Joe DiPaolo, " Newt Gingrich Says January 6 Committee Members 'Face a Real Risk of Jail' if Republicans Win the House," Mediaite, Jan. 23, 2022.
Liz Harrington, Tweet, Jan. 30, 2022.
Newt Gingrich, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022.
The Hill, Tweet, Jan. 26, 2022.
Stephen Breyer, "Why Regulation Rarely Achieves the Goals It Is Designed to Serve," PBS Commanding Heights (no date).
Jeff Darlington and Adam Schefter, “Tom Brady retiring after 22 seasons, seven Super Bowl wins with New England Patriots, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sources say,” ESPN, Jan. 29, 2022,
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33173652/tom-brady-retiring-22-seasons-seven-super-bowl-wins-new-england-patriots-tampa-bay-buccaneers-sources-say.
Dustin Volz, “Vast Troves of Classified Info Undermine National Security, Spy Chief Says,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 27, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/vast-troves-of-classified-info-undermine-national-security-spy-chief-says-11643286602.
Oona Hathaway, “Keeping the Wrong Secrets: How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat,” Foreign Affairs (January-February 2022), https://reader.foreignaffairs.com/2021/12/14/keeping-the-wrong-secrets/content.html.
Patrick G. Eddington and Christopher A. Preble, “Bad Idea: Overclassification,” Defense360, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dec. 6, 2019, https://defense360.csis.org/bad-idea-overclassification/.
Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper, “Engagement Reframed #1: Vaccinate the world,” New American Engagement Initiative, Feb. 1, 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/engagement-reframed/vaccinate-the-world/.
The Net Assessment crew assesses President Joe Biden’s foreign policy in his administration’s first year. There appear to have been more failures than successes, and Chris, Melanie, and Zack debated why that might be. But, as Frank Gavin explains in the lead essay at the Texas National Security Review, a bit of perspective is in order. Crafting and executing foreign policy is difficult, even for a seasoned hand like Biden. To the extent that the promise of his approach to the world hasn’t lived up to reality, how much of that can be tied to his vision (is there one?), how much to poor execution, and how much to other factors over which the president has no control?
Zack is annoyed with all the talk of a looming civil war in the United States, and Melanie gripes about the New York Times’ coverage of a transplant patient who was the recipient of a pig’s heart. Chris (with an assist from Melanie) faults newly-inaugurated Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin for wanting to make it easier to spend taxpayer money on a new stadium for the Washington Football Team. Attaboys to one of the first Tuskegee Airman, Gen. Charles McGee, who passed away at the age of 102, and to Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota for standing up to Trump.
Links:
Quick! Get your free COVID-19 tests! https://special.usps.com/testkits
Frank Gavin, “How Are They doing?” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 5, Iss. 1, Winter 2021/2022.
Mike Sweeney, “NATO, Diplomacy, and the Ukraine Crisis,” Wavell Room, Jan. 10, 2022.
David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu, “Good Morning. We look at Omicron’s toll in New York and Seattle, two cities with timely data,” The Morning, New York Times, Jan. 11, 2022.
Daniel W. Drezner, “The Policy Gap in the Indo-Pacific,” Washington Post, Jan. 12, 2022.
Anjali Dayal, Alexandra Stark, and Megan A. Stewart, “Warnings of ‘Civil War’ Risk Harming Efforts Against Political Violence,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 18, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/warnings-of-civil-war-risk-harming-efforts-against-political-violence/.
Harrison Smith, “Charles McGee, Tuskegee Airman who fought in three wars, dies at 102,” Washington Post, Jan. 17, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2022/01/17/charles-mcgee-tuskegee-airman-dead/.
Alex Tabarrok, Twitter, January 13, 2022.
Mary Clare Jalonik, “Rounds Dismisses Trump Criticism for Saying He Lost Election,” Associated Press, Jan. 10, 2022.
Richard Fontaine, “Washington's Missing China Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, Jan. 14, 2022.
Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the massing of Russian troops near Ukraine’s eastern border and the Biden administration’s efforts to deter Putin from invading Ukraine. What is Putin’s motivation for the actions of the last several months? Are the Biden team’s threats of crippling economic sanctions in the case of an invasion credible? How will the different interests of individual NATO allies affect what President Joe Biden is able to promise in upcoming discussions? Could our handling of this potential crisis make it more likely that China will try to take Taiwan? Chris has some thoughts on media coverage of Omicron, Zack wishes Donald Trump would stop praising leaders with authoritarian tendencies, and Melanie laments that the Biden administration has still not developed an economic strategy for Asia.
Links:
Josh Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, “Acting Too Aggressively on Ukraine May Endanger It—and Taiwan,” Washington Post, Dec. 23, 2021.
Kori Schake, “Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine Is Backfiring,” The Atlantic, Dec. 29, 2021.
“Purdue Sends Message to China,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 17, 2021.
Yuka Hayashi, “US on Sidelines as China and Other Asia-Pacific Nations Launch Trade Pact,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2022.
Francis J. Gavin, “Is Team Biden Winning?”, Texas National Security Review, Dec. 30, 2021.
Andrew Kramer, Steven Erlanger, and David Sanger, “Russia Lays Out Demands for a Sweeping New Security Deal with NATO,” New York Times, December 17, 2021.
Michael Kofman and Andrea Kendall-Taylor, “The Myth of Russian Decline,” Foreign Affairs, Oct. 19, 2021.
Michael Crowley and Julian E. Barnes, “How Far Would Biden Go to Defend Ukraine Against Russia?”, New York Times, Nov. 25, 2021.
Sauli Niinisto, New Year’s Speech, Presidentti.fi, Jan. 1, 2022.
Michael Crowley, “Biden Stand on Ukraine is a Wider Test of US Credibility Abroad,” New York Times, Dec. 16, 2021.
Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Handssler, and Nicole Gaouette, “House Lawmakers Push Biden Administration to Do More to Deter Russian Aggression against Ukraine,” CNN, Dec. 14, 2021.
Mark Cancian, “What Would it Take to Defend Ukraine? Potentially, Billions of Dollars,” Breaking Defense, Dec. 7, 2021.
Jennifer Millman, “NY COVID Hospitalizations Top 2021 Surge Levels; Omicron Quintuples Risk of Breakthrough Cases,” NBC New York, Jan. 3, 2022, https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/ny-covid-hospitalizations-top-2021-surge-levels-as-omicron-drives-95-of-cases/3476250/.
“Future Foreign Policy series featuring Ambassador Robert Zoellick,” New American Engagement Initiative, Jan. 19, 2022, 12:00 p.m. ET, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ffp-series-featuring-ambassador-robert-zoellick/.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate U.S. global posture. How can the National Defense Strategy bring resources and requirements into alignment? With the Defense Department having just completed its global posture review, is Bob Work right that the U.S. Navy needs to shed its attachment to presence? Is Bryan McGrath correct that the answer is more resources? Or can new approaches — like the Marine Corps’ A Concept for Stand-in Forces — square this circle? Chris and Zack hope their holiday presents will include a clear U.S. strategy on China. Melanie hopes for a nuclear power revolution. And all three wish listeners a happy holiday season.
Links:
Jim Garamone, “Biden Approves Global Posture Review Recommendations,” DOD News, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2856053/biden-approves-global-posture-review-recommendations/.
U.S. Marine Corps, “A Concept for Stand-In Forces,” December 2021, https://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/142/Users/183/35/4535/211201_A%20Concept%20for%20Stand-In%20Forces.pdf?ver=MFOzu2hs_IWHZlsOAkfZsQ%3d%3d.
Robert O. Work, “A Slavish Devotion to Forward Presence Has Nearly Broken the U.S. Navy,” Proceedings, December 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/december/slavish-devotion-forward-presence-has-nearly-broken-us-navy.
Bryan McGrath, “What Is The Navy For?,” The Conservative Wahoo, Dec. 1, 2021, https://conservativewahoo.substack.com/p/what-is-the-navy-for.
Mara Karlin, The Inheritance: America’s Military After Two Decades of War (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2021), https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-inheritance/.
Christopher A. Preble, “The Cold War Navy in the Post War World,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 195, Aug. 2, 1993, https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa195.pdf.
“The Discreet Charm of Nuclear Power,” The Economist, Nov. 13, 2021.
CDR Salamander, “The Global Posture Review: Strategic Vapor Lock,” Substack, Nov. 30, 2021.
Jack Detsch, “‘No Decisions, No Changes’: Pentagon Fails to Stick Asia Pivot,” Foreign Policy, Nov. 29, 2021.
Dan Lamothe, “After Extraordinary Sacrifice—and Years of Delay—Alwyn Cashe Gets His Medal of Honor,” Washington Post, Dec. 15, 2021.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack explore how the U.S. military recruits and retains top performers. In the recently released Marine Corps’ talent management report, Marine Corps Commandant David H. Berger explains that the Corps “must bring into the service the right people with the right skill sets, measure their talents, and then match their skills to the duties they desire and are suited to perform.”
But military leaders realize that the competition for talent is fierce, and they must be willing to challenge long-standing assumptions to succeed. Can they? Will the right package of incentives — combined with the desire of a small but significant number of American men and women to serve in uniform — ensure that the U.S. military will have the right people, in the right place, at the right time? Or do we need to consider moving to a different model, including possibly one based on compulsory service for all able-bodied men and women?
Older and wiser Zack Cooper has a grievance with grad student Zack Cooper, Melanie throws shade on the Biden administration’s economic policies, and Chris faults those playing politics with the lives of millions of innocent men, women, and children in Afghanistan. Shout outs to NASA astronaut-candidate Chris Williams, to Vice President Kamala Harris for wearing wired instead of Bluetooth headphones, and to the Atlantic Council’s Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper for a new report on U.S. efforts to promote democracy around the world.
Links:
Commandant of the Marine Corps Issues Talent Management 2030 Plan, November 3, 2021, https://www.marines.mil/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Display/Article/2831808/commandant-of-the-marine-corps-issues-talent-management-2030-plan/.
Gen. David H. Berger, “A Concept for Stand-In Forces,” Proceedings, November 2021, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2021/november/concept-stand-forces.
Zoe Poindexter, “Amazon's consumer chief says hiring remains a "challenge" in "very tight" labor market,” CBS News, Nov. 28, 2021, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/amazon-hiring-dave-clark-labor-market-face-the-nation/?ftag=CNM-16-10abd6g.
“Support for drafting women to the military has decreased since 2016 years,” Ipsos, Aug. 2, 2021, https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/military-draft-women-support-2021.
Connor O’Brien, “Lawmakers drop proposal to add women to the draft as defense bill headaches mount,” POLITICO, Dec. 6, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829.
Christina Goldbaum, “Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation,” New York Times, Dec. 4, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/04/world/asia/afghanistan-starvation-crisis.html.
Laurel Miller, Twitter, https://twitter.com/LaurelMillerICG/status/1467557958494175233?s=20
Mathew Burrows and Evan Cooper, “Assumption #4: The United States should prioritize the promotion of democracy around the world over other key US objectives,” Atlantic Council, Nov. 9, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/assumption-testing-series/assumption-4-the-united-states-should-prioritize-the-promotion-of-democracy-around-the-world-over-other-key-us-objectives/.
NAEI Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.
Scott Bixby and Adam Rawnsley, “Actually, Kamala is Right: Bluetooth is a Risk,” The Daily Beast, Dec. 7, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/well-actually-vice-president-kamala-harris-is-right-bluetooth-is-a-risk.
Callie Patteson, “Pete Buttigieg Slammed for Urging Electric Car Buying to Counter Gas Prices,” New York Post, Nov. 29, 2021, https://nypost.com/2021/11/29/buttigieg-slammed-for-urging-electric-car-buying-to-counter-gas-prices/.
“Biden is Hiking Lumber Tariffs at the Wrong Time,” Washington Post, Dec. 2, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/02/biden-lumber-tariff-mistake/.
Jen Spindel and Robert Ralston, “Congress Might Require Women to Register for the Draft. Where Do Republicans and Democrats Stand?”, Washington Post, Nov. 15, 2021.
Christopher Preble, “Don’t Make Everyone Register for the Draft. Just End Draft Registration for Everyone,” Washington Post, Feb. 5, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/15/congress-might-require-women-register-draft-where-do-republicans-democrats-stand/.
Congressional Executive Commission on China, “Hearing on How China Uses Economic Coercion to Silence Critics and Achieve its Political Aims Globally,” Dec. 7, 2021, https://www.cecc.gov/events/hearings/how-china-uses-economic-coercion-to-silence-critics-and-achieve-its-political-aims.
NASA Astronaut Candidate Christopher L. Williams, NASA, December 2021, https://www.nasa.gov/astronauts/biographies/christopher-l-williams/biography.
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about ongoing developments in the Arctic. Climate change is causing flooding and environmental damage, but it is also providing new opportunities for navigation, mining, fishing, tourism, and defense. How can America’s national security and economic interests best be protected in the face of increasing Russian and Chinese activity there? How should we prioritize the region when we have other critical threats to address? Have we and our partners that border the Arctic missed chances for influence there that we cannot recover? Is it possible for the United States to strengthen its position there without appearing to encourage an arms race?
Chris wishes we could consider the merits of arguments instead of personally attacking those making them, Zack condemns the Chinese government’s treatment of Olympian Peng Shuai, and Melanie looks at the hypocrisy of governors who claim to support free markets but want to prohibit businesses from imposing vaccine mandates.
Links:
Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend, Partners, Competitors, or a Little of Both?: Russia and China in the Arctic, Center for a New American Security, March 2021, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/partners-competitors-or-a-little-of-both.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Lawson W. Brigham, and Nick Lokker, Navigating Relations with Russia in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Stability, Center for a New American Security, Nov. 18, 2021, https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/navigating-relations-with-russia-in-the-arctic.
Berkeley Lovelace, Jr., “Pfizer says its Covid pill with HIV drug cuts the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%,” CNBC, Nov. 5, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/05/pfizer-says-its-covid-pill-with-hiv-drug-cuts-the-risk-of-hospitalization-or-death-by-89percent.html.
David Auerswald, “A U.S. Security Strategy for the Arctic,” War on the Rocks, May 27, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/05/a-u-s-security-strategy-for-the-arctic/.
Frank Jordans, “Vaccine maker BioNTech to use mRNA tech to target malaria,” Associated Press, July 26, 2021, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/vaccine-maker-biontech-mrna-tech-target-malaria-79064005.
Future Foreign Policy Series: Reinvigorating US diplomacy, New American Engagement Initiative, Nov. 29, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-series-reinvigorating-us-diplomacy/.
NAEI Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.
Rebecca Hersman and Eric Brewer, Deep Dive Debrief: Strategic Stability and Competition in the Arctic, Jan. 6, 2021, https://www.csis.org/analysis/deep-dive-debrief-strategic-stability-and-competition-arctic.
Steve Contorno, “Florida Special Session begins as DeSantis Continues Battle against Vaccine Mandates,” CNN, Nov. 15, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/15/politics/desantis-florida-legislature-vaccine-mandates/index.html.
"Taiwan," Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Y18-07g39g.
Will Quinn, Tweet thread, Nov. 11, 2021, https://twitter.com/wc_quinn/status/1458891500344029189?t=l7ugkXe7tuA75d7XbjYd5Q&s=15.
"WTA says Peng Shuai's call with Olympic officials does not alleviate concerns about her well-being," ESPN, Nov. 22, 2021, https://www.espn.com/tennis/story/_/id/32688106/wta-says-peng-shuai-call-olympic-officials-not-enough.
Zahra Ullah and Fred Pleitgen, “As the US and Russia Spar Over the Arctic, Putin Creates New Facts on the Ground,” CNN, May 21, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/21/europe/russia-arctic-military-intl-cmd/index.html.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack welcome Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, to Net Assessment. They discuss what the United States has gotten right and wrong the last few decades, focusing particularly on decisions about when to use force as well as U.S. policies on Iraq, Afghanistan, China, and trade. Chris demands an expanded college football playoff, Melanie is disgusted by a congressman's animated video depicting violence against a colleague, and Zack questions the wisdom of burning jet fuel to attend COP26.
Links:
Richard Haass, "The Age of America First," Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-29/biden-trump-age-america-first.
Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan, "The New Concert of Powers," Foreign Affairs, March 23, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-03-23/new-concert-powers.
Richard Haass, "American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 2, 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous.
Richard Haass, "How the United States Should Use Military Force," Cosmos Journal, 1996, http://www.cosmosclub.org/journals/1996/haas.html.
Donnie O'Sullivan, "Republican Congressman Posts Video Depicting Violence against Ocasio-Corez and Biden," CNN, Nov. 8, 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/09/politics/gosar-anime-video-violence-ocasio-cortez-biden/index.html.
Jonathan Beale and Tony Smith, "HMS Queen Elizabeth: Life on Board Royal Navy Aircraft Carrier," BBC, Nov. 5, 2021, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59170696.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate Madeleine Albright's recent article on “The Coming Democratic Revival” in Foreign Affairs. They discuss whether the United States is in a position to promote democracy and push back against autocracy abroad, or whether it needs to focus primarily on its own democratic institutions and processes. Melanie commends Nancy Mace for holding Steve Bannon to account. Chris calls out President Joe Biden for his recent confusing statement on Taiwan. And Zack remembers Colin Powell for a life well lived.
Links:
Madeleine K. Albright, “The Coming Democratic Revival,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2021-10-19/madeleine-albright-coming-democratic-revival.
“As Sudan's Government Wobbles, Coups are Making a Comeback,” The Economist, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/10/25/as-sudans-government-wobbles-coups-are-making-a-comeback.
Caitlyn Byrd, “SC's Nancy Mace Joins Democrats in Vote to Hold Steven Bannon in Contempt of Congress,” Oct. 21, 2021, https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article255184472.html.
Jack Norton, Twitter, Oct. 25, 2021, https://twitter.com/JackNorton8064/status/1452525971442044930.
Jane Street, Twitter, Oct. 19, 2021, https://twitter.com/janestreet/status/1450608726352740355.
Joseph R. Biden Jr., “Not So Deft On Taiwan,” Washington Post, May 2, 2001, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2001/05/02/not-so-deft-on-taiwan/2adf3075-ee98-4e70-9be0-5459ce1edd5d/.
Josh Rudolph, “Regulating the Enablers,” Alliance for Securing Democracy, Sept. 2021, https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/regulating-the-enablers/.
Michael Cohen, “The Foreign Policy ‘Credibility’ Argument Is, Well, Not Credible,” The New Republic, Oct. 18, 2021, https://newrepublic.com/article/164039/foreign-policy-credibility-argument-afghanistan-withdrawal.
NAEI Annual Student Competition, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.
Pew Research Center, “Citizens in Advanced Economies Want Significant Changes to Their Political Systems,” October 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/10/PG_2021.10.21_Democracy_FINAL.pdf.
“SFRC Approves 33 Critical Foreign Policy Nominations,” United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Oct. 19, 2021, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/sfrc-approves-33-critical-foreign-policy-nominations-.
Steven F. Knott, American Foreign Policy to 1899: Core Documents (Ashland, OH: Ashbrook Center, 2021), https://teachingamericanhistory.org/product/american-foreign-policy-to-1899/.
Ted Galen Carpenter, “Biden and His Foreign Policy Team At Least Need to Get on the Same Page Regarding Taiwan,” Cato at Liberty Blog, Oct. 25, 2021, https://www.cato.org/blog/biden-foreign-policy-team-least-need-get-same-page-regarding-taiwan.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack return to discuss Richard Haass’s critique of “Washington’s new flawed foreign policy consensus.” The Council on Foreign Relations president laments the bipartisan turn away from the mostly internationalist spirit that has informed U.S. foreign policy since the end of the World War II.
Is he right? Does such a consensus exist? And does that explain why successive U.S. presidents seem so skeptical of internationalism? The three also try to discern what Haass favors as an alternative, but conclude that dissatisfaction with the current direction of U.S. foreign policy doesn’t easily translate into specific and implantable policies.
Grievances for Katherine Tai for an underwhelming speech on U.S. trade policy, for Sens. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley for holding up ambassadorial appointments, and to those who harassed Sen. Kyrsten Sinema — in the restroom! — for being … jerks.
Attagirl to Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa who braved abuse and intimidation for uncovering corruption and misrule in the Philippines and elsewhere. Chris gives a shout out to Reps. Jim McGovern and Peter Meijer for introducing legislation to rein in executive power, and Melanie praises the developers at GlaxoSmithKline for their life-saving new malaria vaccine. She also gives a special shout out to her nephew Zack and his Utah state champion golf team at Long Peak High School.
Links:
Richard Haass, “The Age of America First: Washington’s Flawed New Foreign Policy Consensus,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-29/biden-trump-age-america-first.
Richard Haass, “What Mike Pompeo doesn’t understand about China, Richard Nixon and U.S. foreign policy,” Washington Post, July 25, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/25/what-mike-pompeo-doesnt-understand-about-china-richard-nixon-us-foreign-policy/.
New American Engagement Initiative Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.
New American Engagement Initiative Future Foreign Policy series with Rep. Joaquin Castro, Monday, Oct. 18 at 3:30 pm, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-series-featuring-rep-joaquin-castro/.
“America is shorthanded in foreign affairs. Thanks, Ted Cruz,” Washington Post, Oct. 10, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/10/america-is-shorthanded-foreign-affairs-thanks-ted-cruz/.
Ankit Panda Twitter, https://twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1447366126447570946?s=12.
Apoorva Mandavilli, "A 'Historic Event': First Malaria Vaccine Approved by WHO," New York Times, Oct. 6, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/06/health/malaria-vaccine-who.html.
Connor O’Brien, “Lawmakers aim for blockbuster overhaul of war powers, arms sales,” POLITICO, Sept. 30, 2021, https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/30/war-powers-act-bipartisan-overhaul-514794.
Dina Smeltz, Ivo Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Emily Sullivan, "A Foreign Policy for the Middle Class--What Americans Think," Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Oct. 2021, https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/ccs2021_fpmc_0.pdf.
Peggy Noonan, "Progressives Hold the Capital Captive," Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-progressives-aoc-squad-sinema-reconciliation-infrastructure-lbj-approval-polling-11633643510.
Tyler Haslam, "High School Golf: Kihei Akina Leads Lone Peak Knights to 8th State Title in 9 Years," Deseret News, Oct. 5, 2021, https://www.deseret.com/2021/10/5/22708095/high-school-golf-kihei-akina-leads-lone-peak-knighs-to-8th-state-title-in-9-years-6a-uhsaa.
Zack and Melanie are joined by Adam Mount, senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, to discuss the AUKUS security agreement between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. What does the pact say about these countries' assessment of the influence and ambition of China in the Indo-Pacific? France, which had an agreement to provide Australia with conventionally-powered submarines, was dropped in favor of the United States and United Kingdom helping Australia to develop nuclear-propelled submarines. Can AUKUS members repair their relationships with France? The deal provides a framework for cooperation between the countries on sharing information related to cyber, AI, quantum computing, and other technology. How might this arrangement affect national security as well as societies in the coming decades? Finally, should we be concerned about proliferation?
Zack wishes the administration would be more forthright about how it worked to secure the return of hostages from China, Adam is unhappy with the departure of an important voice on nuclear issues from the Pentagon, and Melanie is happy it’s finally autumn!
Links:
Andrew S. Erickson, “Australia Badly Needs Nuclear Submarines,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 20, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/20/australia-aukus-nuclear-submarines-china/.
Ashley Townshend, “Far From Breaking with the Past, AUKUS Advances Australia’s Commitment to Collective Defence,” The Strategist, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Sept. 24, 2021, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/far-from-breaking-with-the-past-aukus-advances-australias-commitment-to-collective-defence/.
Caitlin Talmadge, "Don't Sink the Nuclear Submarine Deal," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-27/dont-sink-nuclear-submarine-deal.
Daniel Baer, “Sub Snub Has Paris in a Tizzy over AUKUS,” Foreign Policy, Sept. 17, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/09/17/aukus-france-submarines-australia/.
Gender Champions in Nuclear Policy, https://www.gcnuclearpolicy.org/.
James M. Acton, “Why the AUKUS Submarine Deal Is Bad for Nonproliferation—And What to Do About It,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sept. 21, 2021, https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/21/why-aukus-submarine-deal-is-bad-for-nonproliferation-and-what-to-do-about-it-pub-85399.
IPA Talent Exchange Program, Partnership for Public Service, https://ourpublicservice.org/ipa-talent-exchange/.
Jen Psaki, "Press Briefing by Press Secretary," The White House, Sept. 27, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/09/27/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-jen-psaki-september-27-2021/.
Josh Zumbrun, “World Bank Cancels Flagship ‘Doing Business’ Report After Investigation,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-bank-cancels-flagship-doing-business-report-after-investigation-11631811663.
Lindsay Hughes, “Does Australia Need Nuclear-Powered Submarines and a Nuclear-Power Sector?”, Future Directions International, Feb. 25, 2021, https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/does-australia-need-nuclear-powered-submarines-and-a-nuclear-power-sector/.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether there is a "Biden doctrine" and if so, what exactly it is. They identify two separate threads in Biden's thinking and that of his team — one idealist vision for global democracy, and a second more pragmatic and restrained approach. These diverging views do not, at the moment, appear to have yet been resolved. Chris also questions George W. Bush on the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11, Melanie weighs in on the Met Gala, and Zack supports expanding Selective Service registration.
Brian O’Toole, “Biden’s Empty Posts are a National Security Problem,” Atlantic Council, August 10, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/bidens-empty-posts-are-a-national-security-problem/.
Danielle L. Lupton, "Biden Has a Narrow Window to Restore U.S. Credibility," Foreign Affairs, Feb. 8, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-02-08/biden-has-narrow-window-restore-us-credibility.
Dominic Tierney, “In Search of the Biden Doctrine,” FPRI, November 9, 2021, https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/11/in-search-of-the-biden-doctrine/.
Evan Montgomery, "Credibility Controversies: The Implications of Afghanistan for the Indo-Pacific," War on the Rocks, Sept. 7, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/credibility-controversies-the-implications-of-afghanistan-for-the-indo-pacific/.
Hal Brands, "The Emerging Biden Doctrine," Foreign Affairs, June 29, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-06-29/emerging-biden-doctrine.
Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, Michael D. Shear, and Michael Crowley, "In Afghan Withdrawal, a Biden Doctrine Surfaces," New York Times, Sept. 4, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/04/us/politics/biden-doctrine-afghanistan-foreign-policy.html.
Jay Hancock, “Military expected to be used sparingly,” Baltimore Sun, December 17, 2000, https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-2000-12-17-0012170148-story.html.
Jada Yuan, “The Met Gala is Full of Rich People. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Wore a Dress with a Message: ‘Tax the Rich,’” Washington Post, Sept. 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/2021/09/14/aoc-met-gala-tax-rich-dress/.
Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/.
Joe Biden, "Why America Must Lead Again," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again.
Joshua Shifrinson and Stephen Wertheim, "Biden the Realist," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 9, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-09-09/biden-realist.
Joshua D. Kertzer, "American Credibility After Afghanistan," Foreign Affairs, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-09-02/american-credibility-after-afghanistan.
New American Engagement Initiative, Annual Student Competition, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/scowcroft-center-for-strategy-and-security/new-american-engagement-initiative/naei-annual-student-competition/.
Peter Dombrowski and John Glaser, “A Distracted Grand Strategy,” Power Problems, Sept. 7, 2021, https://www.cato.org/multimedia/power-problems/distracted-grand-strategy.
Scott Lincicome, “US Regulators Are Failing the (Rapid) Test,” CATO, Sept. 1, 2021, https://www.cato.org/commentary/us-regulators-are-failing-rapid-test.
Task Force on U.S.-China Policy, "China's New Direction: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy," Asia Society and U.C. San Diego, September 2021, https://china.ucsd.edu/_files/2021-china-new-direction-report.pdf.
Thomas Wright, "Joe Biden Worries That China Might Win," The Atlantic, June 9, 2021, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/06/joe-biden-foreign-policy/619130/.
As we approach the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss Daniel Byman’s article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism.” Byman surveys the various aspects of the “Global War on Terror” and concludes that, on balance, the United States and others have achieved a level of effort that is both strategically and politically feasible. But can we actually tolerate some level of risk from terrorism in the same way that we tolerate other dangers, from pandemics to severe weather events, or will political leaders always resort to maximalist promises to eliminate terrorism permanently? Was it inevitable that the Global War on Terror would amplify xenophobia and nativism, and what else can we learn from the efforts of the past 20 years? Grievances for critics of the "Blob,” special scorn for Sen. Chris Murphy, and "attapeople" to U.S. military personnel for their enormous sacrifices in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and to those civilians who are now helping to resettle Afghan refugees, as well as those displaced from other disasters.
Daniel Byman’s “The Good Enough Doctrine: Learning to Live with Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/good-enough-doctrine
Richard Stevenson, “Bush Faults Kerry on Terrorism Remarks,” New York Times, Oct. 12, 2004, https://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/12/politics/campaign/bush-faults-kerry-on-terrorism-remarks.html
Christopher Preble, “We Are Terrorized: Why US Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing, and Why It Can’t Be Easily Fixed,” War on the Rocks, Jan. 8, 2016, https://warontherocks.com/2016/01/we-are-terrorized-why-u-s-counterterrorism-policy-is-failing-and-why-it-cant-be-easily-fixed/
Bill McCarthy, “Charlie Kirk baselessly claims Biden intentionally let Afghanistan fall to alter US population,” Politifact, Aug. 19, 2021, https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/aug/19/charlie-kirk/charlie-kirk-baselessly-claims-biden-intentionally/
Jordan Mendoza, “Want to donate or volunteer to assist those affected by Hurricane Ida? Here's how to help,” USA Today, Aug. 30, 2021, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/30/hurricane-ida-help-storm-victims-louisiana-mississippi/5648004001/
“How to Help Afghan Refugees and the Relief Effort,” New York Times, Aug. 20, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/world/asia/how-to-help-afghanistan-refugees.html
“Future Foreign Policy series: Congress and AUMF repeal,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, Sept. 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/future-foreign-policy-congress-and-aumf-repeal/
Tanisha M. Fazal, "The Case for Complacency," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2021-08-24/case-complacency.
Joe Biden, "Remarks on the End of the War in Afghanistan," The White House, Aug. 31, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/08/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan/.
Darren Lim, Zack Cooper, and Ashley Feng, “Trust and Diversify: A Geoeconomic Strategy for the Australia-US Alliance,” US Studies Centre, Sept. 2, 2021, https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trust-and-diversify-a-geoeconomic-strategy-for-the-australia-us-alliance.
Susanna Patton and Ashley Townshend, “Kamala Harris's Asia Trip Can't Fix Biden's Troubled Indo-Pacific Strategy,” Foreign Policy, Aug. 24, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/kamala-harris-singapore-vietnam-southeast-asia-trip-biden-indo-pacific-strategy/.
Elliot Ackerman, “What the War on Terror Cost America,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 27, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-08-24/winning-ugly.
Michael McKinley, “We All Lost Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, Aug. 16, 2021, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-16/we-all-lost-afghanistan-taliban.
Jeffrey A. Singer, “Society Will Never Be Free of COVID-19--It's Time to Embrace Harm Reduction,” Cato, Aug. 26, 2021, https://www.cato.org/pandemics-policy/society-will-never-be-free-covid-19-its-time-embrace-harm-reduction.
Chris, Zack, and Melanie talk about the Biden administration’s disastrous military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Whose fault is this debacle? What is the manner of our exit doing to America’s credibility, with friends and adversaries alike, around the world? In a year, is anyone going to remember or care what has happened in the last several weeks? Have we learned any lessons from our two decades in Afghanistan, and will there be any accountability for bad decisions made along the way?
Zack pushes back on comments made by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan about the withdrawal, Chris calls out the administration’s unwillingness to accept more refugees, and Melanie is grateful for those taking the lead on helping to get refugees settled into new homes.
Gideon Rachman, “Joe Biden’s Credibility Has Been Shredded in Afghanistan,” Financial Times, August 13, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2.
Fred Kagan, “Biden Could Have Stopped the Taliban. He Chose Not To,” New York Times, August 12, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/biden-afghanistan-taliban.html.
Joe Biden, “Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan, White House, August 14, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-afghanistan/.
Greg Jaffe, “From Hubris to Humiliation: America’s Warrior Class Contends with the Abject Failure of Its Afghanistan Project,” Washington Post, August 14, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-hubris-afghanistan-humiliation/2021/08/14/47fb025a-fc67-11eb-9c0e-97e29906a970_story.html.
Susannah George, “Afghanistan’s Military Collapse: Illicit Deals with the Taliban and Mass Desertions,” Washington Post, August 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/.
David E. Sanger and Helene Cooper, “Taliban Sweep in Afghanistan Follows Years of US Miscalculations,” New York Times, August 14, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/14/us/politics/afghanistan-biden.html.
“An incoherent strategy doomed the 20-year US mission in Afghanistan, watchdog says as US withdraws,” CNN Politics, https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/politics/afghanistan-sigar-report/.
"Afghans have broken 'shackles of slavery', says Pak PM Imran Khan after Taliban seize power," Times of India, August 16, 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/taliban-has-broken-shackles-of-slavery-pakistan-pm-imran-khan-says/articleshow/85368058.cms.
"Last Days in Vietnam: Who Goes? And Who Gets Left Behind?," PBS.org, April 28, 2015, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/lastdays/.
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the Pentagon's new concept of "integrated deterrence" and try to divine its meaning and importance. They struggle to differentiate the concept from existing theories of deterrence and conclude that this phrase seems better suited to identifying a problem, rather than describing a solution. Chris encourages listeners to use the Defense Futures Simulator, Melanie applauds Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya for her courage, and Zack commends Lloyd Austin and his team for a successful first trip to Southeast Asia.
Links:
- Oren Liebermann, "Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin lays out vision of future in first major speech," CNN, May 1, 2021, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/defense-secretary-lloyd-austin-lays-out-vision-of-future-in-first-major-speech/ar-BB1geVXr?ocid=se.
- Jim Garamone, "Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence," DOD News, June 2, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2641068/official-talks-dod-policy-role-in-chinese-pacing-threat-integrated-deterrence/.
- Lloyd Austin, "Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Participates in Fullerton Lecture Series in Singapore," U.S. Department of Defense, July 27, 2021, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2711025/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-participates-in-fullerton-lecture-serie/.
- Kurt Campbell, "The Changing China Debate," Chatham House, August 20, 2020, https://americas.chathamhouse.org/article/the-changing-china-debate/.
- Babie Latza Nadeau, "D.C. Mayor Muriel Boswer Snubs Her Mask Mandate Within First 24 Hours: Report," Daily Beast, August 1, 2021, https://www.thedailybeast.com/washington-dc-mayor-muriel-bowser-snubs-her-mask-mandate-within-first-24-hours-report-says.
- Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard, “A mom’s guide to coercion and deterrence,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, March 16, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-moms-guide-to-coercion-and-deterrence/
- Erica Borghard, Reality Check #3, “The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Policy Brief, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/reality-check/reality-check-3-the-uses-and-abuses-of-deterrence/
- War on the Rocks Defense Futures Simulator, https://www.defensefutures.net/
- Ellen Knickmeyer, Lolita C, Baldor, and Matthew Lee, "'Welcome Home': Evacuation Flight Brings 200 Afghans to US," Military.com, July 30, 2021, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/07/30/welcome-home-evacuation-flight-brings-200-afghans-us.html.
- Dustin Jones and Joe Hernandez, "Belarusian Sprinter Granted Polish Humanitarian Visa after Refusing Flight Home," NPR, August 3, 2021, https://www.npr.org/sections/tokyo-olympics-live-updates/2021/08/02/1023618626/a-sprinter-seeks-asylum-after-refusing-to-board-a-flight-back-to-belarus-from-to.
- Brad Roberts, "On the Need for a Blue Theory of Victory," War on the Rocks, September 17, 2021, https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/on-the-need-for-a-blue-theory-of-victory/.
Special guest Chris Dougherty joins Chris and Melanie to discuss his recent War on the Rocks article, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy.” Dougherty notes that “a series of decisions (and indecisions) decades in the making have backed the Navy into a budget and force-planning corner,” and he describes the competing interests that drive different (and rarely complementary) force requirements. What decisions are most needed in order to get the Navy back on the right track? And what practical steps can be taken now and in the near future to close the gap between the many demands on the Navy, and the Navy’s capacity to meet those demands? Chris Preble is mad at people who spread malicious misinformation, Melanie laments the decline of human civilization as reflected in the Associated Press’ wrong-headed decision about the plural possessive, and Chris Dougherty gripes about people who gripe about the 2018 National Defense Strategy (but don’t know what they’re talking about). Shoutouts for the Cuban people, Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Wally Funk, and Gen. David Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps.
Links
- Christopher Dougherty, “Gradually and then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy,” War on the Rocks, June 30, 2021
- Andrew Restuccia and Sarah E. Needleman, “Biden’s Facebook Attack Followed Months of Frustration Inside White House,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2021
- Colleen Sinclair, “10 ways to spot online misinformation,” The Conversation, March 27, 2020 (Updated September 17, 2020)
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about Samuel Charap's article, "Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US-Russia Policy." Does the United States need to "gird itself for sustained competition" with Russia? What kind of leverage does the United States have in negotiating with Putin? How can the United States best work with allies who have very different interests and challenges when it comes to dealing with Russia? Chris gives a shout out to those who push this country to be better, Zack thanks the Republicans who bravely voted for a 1/6 committee, and Melanie praises some defenders of capitalism.
Links
- Samuel Charap, “Expanding the Scope for Statecraft in US Russia Policy,” War on the Rocks, May 14, 2021
- David M. Herszenhorn, "Summit Exposes Stark Clash of EU Views on Russia," Politico, June 25, 2021
- Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch, "Russia Policy Puts Biden Under Pressure Across Europe," Foreign Policy, June 25, 2021
- Timothy Frye, "The Perilous Bargains that Keep Putin in Power," Foreign Affairs, April 2021
- Xi Jinping, "Speech at a Ceremony Marking the Centenary of the Communist Party of China," CGTN, July 01, 2021
- Kristin Wilson and Clare Foran, "Only Two House Republicans Vote for the January 6 Select Committee," CNN, June 30, 2021
- A. Wess Mitchell, "Biden Is Falling Into the Same Trap With Europe as Obama," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2021
- “Slow Burn: The Road to the Iraq War,” Slate Podcast
- “Rep. Adam Kinzinger on the Moral Failture of Republicans and the Big Lie,” New York Times, July 05, 2021
Chris, Melanie, and Zack dig into Marcus Willett’s “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack” in the latest issue of Survival. They explore the distinction between cyber espionage and cyber defense (Was it an attack? Or a hack? Does it matter?), consider the implications of the offense-defense balance (Is 100 percent defense feasible?), and review possible global norms that can be put in place to limit the harm caused by malicious cyber actors. Melanie and Chris both have grievances toward members of Congress who are reluctant to revisit old Authorizations for Use of Military Force , and Zack gripes about Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s absurd op-ed in the Washington Post. And this week’s attafolks were all in the family: Zack welcomed a new niece named Marlowe; Melanie cheered her amazing older brother, David, a renowned physician and educator at the Mayo Clinic; and Chris gives a shout out to his daughter Katelyn —- and all members of the Class of 2021.
- Marcus Willette, “Lessons of the SolarWinds Hack,” IISS, March 31, 2021
- Trey Herr, et al “Broken Trust: Lessons from Sunburst,” Cyber Statecraft Initiative, Atlantic Council
- Stephen Miles, Twitter, June 21, 2021
- Dmitri Alperovitchand Ian Ward, "How Should the U.S. Respond to the SolarWinds and Microsoft Exchange Hacks?," Lawfare, March 12, 2021
- "Critical Infrastructure Sectors," S. Department of Homeland Security
- Imran Khan, "Pakistan is Ready to be a Partner for Peace in Afghanistan, but We Will Not Host US Bases," Washington Post, June 21, 2021
The Net Assessment team debates Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr's recent study on "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way" written for the Lowy Institute. Chris, Melanie, and Zack agree that the study is thought provoking and well argued, but disagree about whether it is ultimately convincing. Nonetheless, Porter and Mazarr have made a real contribution by helping to clarify the assumptions that underlie different approaches to the Taiwan. Chris gives a shout out to the Bridging the Gap effort, Melanie complains about John Cena and Bing, and Zack commends his former colleague Ari Tabatabai.
Links
- Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, "Countering China's Adventurism Over Taiwan: A Third Way," Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021
- Irene Braam and Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, "Transatlantic Trends 2021," German Marshall Fund of the United States and Bertelsmann Foundation, June 2021
- Oriana Skylar Mastro, "The Taiwan Temptation," Foreign Affairs, July/August 2021
- Charles L. Glaser, "Washington Is Avoiding the Tough Questions on Taiwan and China," Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2021
- Ariane M. Tabatabai, No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Strategy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020),
- Dustin Walker, "Congress Should Rewrite the Pentagon's Pacific Deterrence Budget Request," Defense News, June 2, 2021
- Joe Biden, “My Trip to Europe Is about America Rallying the World’s Democracies,” The Washington Post, June 5, 2021
- Martin Pengelly, “Biden Trumpets Democracy in Post Op-ed – As Threats Spread at Home,” The Guardian, June 6, 2021
- Bridging the Gap
- “Future Foreign Policy: Global Perceptions of the United States, Featuring Caroline Gray,” June 16, 2021, Noon EDT
- Tom Karako, “Sing, Missile Muse, of Gods and Heroes: America’s Most Fearsome Weapons Need Better Names,” War on the Rocks, June 7, 2021
- Jill Disis, “‘F9’ Star John Cena Says He Loves China After Taiwan Remark Stokes Anger,” CNN, May 25, 2021
- Elizabeth Braw, “Spying on Allies is Normal. Also Smart,” Politico EU, June 4, 2021.
- Syaru Shirley Lin, “It’s Not Just China: Population, Power Generation, Political Polarization, and Parochialism are Also Long-Term Threats to Taiwan’s Success and Survival,” PRC Leader, June 1, 2021
- “China’s Growing Military Confidence Puts Taiwan at Risk,” Economist, May 1, 2021
- Blake Herzinger, “US Ditching Taiwan Commitments is a Dead-End Idea,” Foreign Policy, May 3, 2021
- Paul Mozur, “Microsoft’s Bing Briefly Blocked ‘Tank Man’ on Anniversary of Tiananmen Anniversary,” New York Times, June 5, 2021
Using Charles Kupchan and Peter Trubowitz's Foreign Affairs article "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation" as a basis for discussion, Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to talk about President Joe Biden's "foreign policy for the middle class." Who, exactly, is in the "middle class"? Are certain positions on foreign policy pro- or anti-middle class? Is there a connection between the domestic programs the administration is pushing and a better foreign policy? Is it possible to evaluate whether our foreign policy is working for the average American? Zack gives a shoutout to people who can disagree on important issues and still be friends, Melanie wishes the people who make the rules would follow them, and Chris praises two scholars for a new report on Taiwan.
Links
- Daniel Drezner, "Real Talk about a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Washington Post, May 20, 2021
- Charles A. Kupchan and Peter L. Trubowitz, "Why an Internationalist Foreign Policy Needs a Stronger Domestic Foundation," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2021
- Salman Ahmed, Wendy Cutler, et al., "Making Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 23, 2020
- Jake Sullivan, "What Donald Trump and Dick Cheney Got Wrong about America," The Atlantic, December 13, 2018
- Antony Blinken, "A Foreign Policy for the American People," U.S. Department of State, March 3, 2021
- Kirk Siegler, "Why Support for Refugees in Higher Than You Might Think in Parts of 'Trump Country,' NPR, May 11, 2021
- Brian Slodysko, "As Pandemic Spread Pain and Panic, Congressman Chased Profit," AP, May 21, 2021
- Mackenzie Eaglen and Dov S. Zakheim, "The White House Should Show Their Cards Earlier: Reveal the Defense Budget Passback Guidance," War on the Rocks, May 21, 2021
- Dan Baer, "Tracking Biden's Progress on a Foreign Policy for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, April 6, 2021
- Patrick Porter and Michael Mazarr, “Countering China’s Adventurism over Taiwan: A Third Way,” Lowy Institute, May 20, 2021
- Craig Hooper, “Despite Promises, USS Ford Heads to Shock Trials With 4 Broken Elevators,” Forbes, May 13, 2021
Chris, Melanie, and Zack, discuss Frank Hoffman’s recent War on the Rocks essay, “U.S. Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” which makes the case for adjusting U.S. strategic objectives in light of flat or declining Pentagon budgets over the next few years. While the Pentagon might intend “to implement the 2018 National Defense Strategy as if the pandemic and recession never happened,” Hoffman explains, we “should evaluate US national security strategy under much more austere defense spending scenarios.” And now we can. As it happens, War on the Rocks, in partnership with the American Enterprise Institute and Center for Strategic & International Security, has just rolled out a clever online budgeting tool that allows users to design their own defense strategies according to a wide range of criteria. Be sure to check it out.
Grievances include gun violence and big bugs (cicadas), and for Joe Biden wanting to take away drug maker patents. Shout outs to Liz Cheney, the G-7’s proper stance on Taiwan, and the World Health Organization and think-tank transparency — and a special attaboy for Producer Tre, the hardest working dude in the podcast universe.
Links
- Frank Hoffman, “US Defense Strategy after the Pandemic,” War on the Rocks, April 20, 2021
- Caroline Multerer, “#100: Create an Office of Gun Violence Prevention in the Department of Homeland Security,” Atlantic Council, April 29, 2021
- Eli Clifton and Ben Freeman, “Restoring Trust in the Think Tank Sector,” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, May 10, 2021
- Defense Futures
- Matthew Lesh, "'Stakeholder Capitalism' Caused the Oxford Vaccine Debacle," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2021
- Afshin Molavi, "Globalization in a Needle," Substack, April 30, 2021
- Robert Work, "Storm Clouds Ahead: Musings about the 2022 Defense Budget," War on the Rocks, March 30, 2021
- Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger, "Redefine Readiness or Lose," War on the Rocks, March 15, 2021
- Nike Ching, "G-7 Countries Back Taiwan's Observer Status in World Health Assembly," VOA News, May 5, 2021
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate the wisdom of President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. They discuss the argument made by Meghan O'Sullivan and Richard Haass that the Biden administration should have kept a small force in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, but question whether that would have been sufficient to accomplish U.S. objectives. Chris also issues a warning to virtue signalers, Zack calls for more virtue signaling with India, and Melanie is aggrieved by the election of Iran to the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women.
- Meghan L. O'Sullivan and Richard Haass, "It's Wrong to Pull Troops Out of Afghanistan. But We Can Minimize the Damage." Washington Post, April 16, 2021
- Richard Fontaine, "The Case Against Foreign Policy Solutionism," Foreign Affairs, February 8, 2021
- Eliot A. Cohen, "Exit Strategy," The Atlantic, April 13, 2021
- Afghanistan Study Group, "A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan," United States Institute of Peace, February 3, 2021
- Soner Cagaptay, "Biden Recognizing the Armenian Genocide Shows How Far Turkey and Erdogan Have Fallen," NBC News, April 24, 2021
- Stephen Wertheim, “Biden Just Made a Historic Break with the Logic of Forever War,” Foreign Policy, April 16, 2021
- Oren Liebermann, Ellie Kaufman and Devan Cole, “Nearly 40% of Marines Have Declined Covid-19 Vaccine,” CNN, April 10, 2021
- Senior Fellow, New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council
- Robert Manning, “Reality Check #5: Learning to Live with a Nuclear North Korea,” New American Engagement Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council, April 26, 2021
- Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden on the Way Forward in Afghanistan," White House, April 14, 2021
- Michael Crowley, "Biden Officials Place Hope in Taliban's Desire for Legitimacy and Money," New York Times, April 23, 2021
- "UK Parliament Declares Genocide in China's Xinjiang; Beijing Condemns Move," Reuters, April 23, 2021
- Michael Lipin, Ramin Haghjoo, "Iran's Election to UN Women's Body Draws Outrage from Rights Activists, US Silence," VOA News, April 24, 2021
- John Bew, Citizen Clem, (London: Riverrun, 2016)
- Future Foreign Policy Series: Featuring Wendy Cutler on US Trade Policy, May 17, 2021, 12:00PM, Atlantic Council (via Zoom)
Chris, Zack, and Melanie discuss Hal Brands and Charles Edel’s article “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity.” Is it possible, and is it wise, to construct a grand strategy of democratic solidarity to counter China and Russia? How might the United States and other countries implement this strategy in practice? Should President Joe Biden host a “summit for democracies,” or would that cause more problems than it would solve?
Melanie criticizes Biden’s infrastructure plan, Zack praises Congress for bipartisan work on the Strategic Competition Act of 2021, and Chris has some tender words for his daughter, Katelyn, as she finishes her time in high school just as she’s spent the last few years — enjoying every moment.
Links
- Hal Brands and Charles Edel, “A Grand Strategy of Democratic Solidarity,” Washington Quarterly, March 23, 2021
- Kori Schake, “The US Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies,” The Atlantic, March 28, 2021
- Brian Reidl, “Biden’s Infrastructure Proposal is a Giant Boondoggle,” The Dispatch, April 5, 2021
- Michael Wood, Tweet, April 11, 2021
- “Strategic Competition Act of 2021,” U.S. Senate Foreign Relation Committee, April 8, 2021
- James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, "A Democracy Summit Is Not What the Doctor Ordered," Foreign Affairs, December 14, 2020
- Graham Brookie, Tweet, April 11, 2021
- “Sharp Partisan Divides in Foreign Policy Priorities,” Pew Research Center, February 23, 2021
- Christopher Preble, “Covert Wars, To What End?” War on the Rocks, August 7, 2019
- Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent, Perilous Partners: The Benefits and Pitfalls of America’s Alliances with Authoritarian Regimes (Cato Institute, 2015)
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the recent War on the Rocks article "Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China." Authors Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette tee up key myths surrounding China’s economic growth and foreign policy, and the success or failure of the U.S. strategy of engagement with China. The hosts scrutinize which myths are most widely believed, and which should not be guiding American policy. But they also consider which beliefs are actually true, and which are most important to current and future U.S. policy. A second “attagirl” in a row for Melanie’s niece Sophie, and an “attapeople” to those recently admitted to grad school. Zack has a grievance with the Chinese Communist Party, Melanie gripes about Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s selective outrage over insults on social media, and Chris explains that a ship stuck in the Suez Canal is mostly a problem because of all the bad memes it generates.
Links
- Evan Medeiros and Jude Blanchette, “Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China,” War on the Rocks, March 19, 2021
- Joint Statement on the WHO-Convened Covid-19 Origins Study, U.S. State Department, March 30, 2021
- Javier C. Hernandez, "WHO Inquiry on the Pandemic's Origin: What We Know," New York Times, March 30, 2o21
- Elizabeth Warren, Tweet, March 25, 2021
- Thomas Shugart, "Trends, Timelines, and Uncertainty: An Assessment of the State of Cross-Strait Deterrence," U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 18, 2021
- Daniel Drezner, “Searching for Signs of Intelligent Symbolism in the Suez Canal,"The Washington Post
- Richard Betts, “The Delusion of Impartial Intervention," Foreign Affairs, November 1994
- Nicholas Eberstadt, "China's Demographic Outlook to 2040 and Its Implications," American Enterprise Institute, January 2019
- Scott Kennedy, Bonnie Glaser, Jude Blanchette, and Matthew Goodman, "We Stand with MERICS," Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 26, 2021
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the Joe Biden administration's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. They commend the administration for issuing the document so early into its tenure, but have questions about the specifics. In particular, the document promises to execute a foreign policy for the middle class, but what this means in practice is less clear. Melanie expresses concern about the vaccine rollout in Europe, Zack congratulates the Quad for its vaccine initiative, and all agree about the need for forthright debate of foreign policy and security issues in the think tank community.
Links
- "Interim National Security Strategic Guidance," The White House, March 2021
- "Fact Sheet: The Quad Summit," The White House, March 12, 2021
- Salman Ahmed et al., "Making US Foreign Policy Work Better for the Middle Class," Carnegie Endowment, September 23, 2020
- Hal Brands and Zack Cooper, "US-Chinese Rivalry is a Battle Over Values," Foreign Affairs, March 16, 2021
- Dan Lamothe, “Army Reviewing Investigation Into Michael Flynn's Dealings with Russia, Foreign Firm,” Washington Post, March 12, 2021
- Thomas Escritt and Stephanie Nebehay, "Germany, Italy, France Suspend AstraZeneca Shots Amid Safety Fears, Disrupting EU Vaccinations," Reuters, March 15, 2021
- Sheena Greitins, Tweet, March 14, 2021
- Anthony Blinken, “Secretary of State Antony Blinken Speech on Foreign Policy,” Rev, March 3, 2021
- Joe Biden, “Remarks on America's Place in the World,” The White House, February 4, 2021
- "Biden must Learn the Right Lesson from Globalization," Washington Post, March 6, 2021
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss U.S. sanctions programs and how to make them more effective. In a recent War on the Rocks article focused on sanctions, Edward Fishman argues that the United States needs to take a hard look at our economic statecraft. Why have sanctions become the go-to answer to so many foreign policy problems? When should they be used, and when are they least effective? Does the United States have the institutional framework necessary for regular sanctions reviews and reform? Will Joe Biden’s team approach sanctions differently than previous administrations? Chris has thoughts on how members of Congress reacted to Biden’s strikes in Syria, Zack takes a principled position on one of Biden’s nominees, and Melanie welcomes her 13th niece to the world.
Links
- Edward Fishman, “Make Russia Sanctions Great Again,” War on the Rocks, October 23, 2020
- Constance Grady, “How Dolly Parton Became a Secular American Saint,” Vox, February 26, 2021
- “US Sanctions 23 Actors with Ties to Venezuelan Oil,” VOA News, January 19, 2021
- Peter E. Harrell, “Here’s How Trump Can Make Better Use of Corporate Sanctions,” Foreign Policy, February 5, 2019
- Natasha Bertrand, “Biden Readies His First Major Penalties on Russia,” Politico, February 22, 2021
- Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter, Harrell, and Ashley Feng, "A New Arsenal for Competition," Center for a New American Security, April 24, 2020
- Eric B. Lorber, "Securing American Interests: A New Era of Economic Power," Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance, February 2017
- Juan Zarate, Treasury's War (New York: PublicAffairs, 2013)
- Josh Rudolph, "Treasury's War on Corruption," Alliance for Securing Democracy, December 22, 2020
- Hugh Hewitt, "The GOP should Forgive Neera Tanden," Washington Post, February 20, 2021
- Gordon Lubold, Michael R. Gordon, and Andrew Jeong, "US, South Korea Near a Deal Over Cost of U.S. Forces on Peninsula," Wall Street Journal, February 26, 2021
- Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #2: Economic Sanctions Should Not always Be the Go-To Foreign Policy Tool,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, February 22, 2021
- Erica Borghard, “Reality Check #3: The Uses and Abuses of Deterrence,” New American Engagement Initiative, Atlantic Council, March 1, 2021
Chris, Melanie, and Zack wade into the long-running debate on whether Europe can defend itself (chiefly from Russia), and how hard it should try. In a recent article, Barry Posen from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concludes that Europe is capable of conducting major military operations against a potential Russian attack, and that these capabilities serve as an important deterrent. But others doubt that Europe will ever be able to stand on its own without substantial support from the United States. The ultimate unknown, however, might revolve around how much autonomy the United States is willing to grant to key NATO allies — and how much autonomy they will demand in exchange for greater burden sharing. Zack offers up an atta-doctor/atta-deputy secretary of defense to newly confirmed Kath Hicks, while Chris praises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for showing the way on how schools can reopen. Melanie has a grievance against those who just can’t get along with others, even when they perform random acts of kindness, and Zack throws shade on people who refuse to put their names on major publications.
Links
- Barry R. Posen, “Europe Can Defend Itself,” IISS, December 3, 2020
- Jeffrey Lightfoot and Olivier-Rémy Bel, “Sovereign Solidarity: France, the US, and Alliances in a Post-COVID World,” Future Europe Initiative, Atlantic Council, November 11, 2020
- Adam Weinstein, “What the Afghanistan Study Group Final Report Missed,” Inkstick, February 11, 2021
- Laura Meckler, “CDC Defends School Guidelines as Advocates Say They Make It too Hard to Reopen,” Washington Post, February 14, 2021
- Evan Braden Montgomery, In the Hegemon's Shadow: Leading States and the Rise of Regional Powers (Cornell University Press, 2016)
- Joe Gould, "Senate confirms Hicks as DOD's No. 2," Defense News, February 8, 2021
- Anonymous, "To Counter China's Rise, the U.S. Should Focus on Xi," Politico, January 28, 2021
- Virginia Heffernan, “What Can You Do about the Trumpites Next Door?”, Los Angeles Times, February 5, 2021
- Our World in Data, Coronavirus Vaccinations by Country
- “Americans and Germans Differ in Their Views of Each Other and the World,” Pew Research, March 9, 2020
- Hans Van Der Burchard and America Hernandez, “US-German Tensions Over Russia-Backed Nord Stream 2 Pipeline,” Politico, January 21, 2021
- “What Would Happen if America Left Europe to Fend for Itself?”, The Economist, March 14, 2019
Chris, Melanie, and Zack debate whether the United States should pursue primacy. They discuss the Donald Trump administration's "Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific," and compare some of its recommendations with Stephen Wertheim’s recent article on "Delusions of Dominance." They agree that the United States needs to have a national debate to match American resources and objectives, but disagree on how to adjust both elements. Chris both complements and questions the Joe Biden administration for actions during its first weeks in office. Melanie raises a multitude of concerns about Andrew Cuomo. And Zack supports Republicans facing political costs for votes of conscience.
Links
- Stephen Wertheim, "Delusions of Dominance," Foreign Affairs, January 25, 2021
- "House Republican Reckoning," The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2021
- Ilan Ben-Meir, "That Time Trump Spent Nearly $100,000 On an Ad Criticizing U.S. Foreign Policy in 1987," BuzzFeed News, July 10, 2015
- Daniel J. Ikenson, “Inauguration Day Feels Like Groundhog Day for Buy American,” Cato Institute, January 20, 2021
- Jonah Shepp, “America Is Complicit in Yemen Atrocities. Biden Says That Ends Now,” New York Magazine, January 22, 2021
- John Glaser, Christopher A. Preble, A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover), (Cato Institute, 2019)
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sit down to discuss Thomas Spoehr’s article “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the U.S. Defense Budget.” How should we assess whether the defense budget is adequate (or excessive) for its purposes? Do we ask our military to fulfill too many purposes? Will the new Congress and administration be willing to make politically unpopular cuts, even if those changes might result in long-term savings and enhanced effectiveness? If being $27 trillion in debt isn’t slowing our spending on either defense or domestic priorities, will anything? The gang has a lightning round on the good, the bad, and the ugly in the Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Finally, Chris praises José Andrés for stepping up to feed the hungry, Melanie is frustrated with how Democrats handled former President Donald Trump’s impeachment, and Zack has warm wishes for those entering the Joe Biden administration.
Links
- Thomas Spoehr, “The Six Blind Men and the Elephant: Differing Views on the US Defense Budget,” War on the Rocks, January 14, 2021
- Kelsey Vlamis, "Pelosi Says Democrats Will Move to Impeach Trump This Week if Pence Doesn't Respond to Calls to Invoke the 25th Amendment," Business Insider, January 12, 2021
- Connor O’Brien, “On Defense Spending, a Democratic Brawl is Brewing,” Politico, October 28, 2020
- Janelle Griffith, “Texas School District Opens Free Grocery Store to Help Disadvantaged Students,” Today, January 4, 2021
- Sydney Freedberg, “NDAA: Conference Cuts New Army Tech, Pluses Up Old,” Breaking Defense, December 4, 2020
- “Defense Strategy: Revised Analytic Approach Needed to Support Force Structure Decision-Making,” GAO, March 14, 2019
- "America's Strategic Choices: Defense Spending in a Post-COVID-19 World," Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Ronald Reagan Institute, January 2021
- "Getting to Less - Exploring the Press for Less in America's Defense Commitments," CSIS, February 6, 2020
- Rebecca Speare-Cole, "3 or 4 Republicans Don't Think Joe Biden Won Election Legitimately: Poll," Newsweek, January 18, 2021
- “The Militarized Budget 2020,” National Priorities Project, June 22, 2020
- 'First Platoon' Examines How War On Terror Birthed Military Biometrics ID System, NPR, January 14, 2021
- “Feeding an Army in D.C.: Chef José Andrés Steps in to Help Feed Huge Influx of National Guard,” Los Angeles Times on MSN, January 17, 2021
- Donate: World Central Kitchen
- Restaurant Employee Relief Fund
Chris, Melanie, and Zack begin the show with a sober look at the events of Jan. 6, when a pro-President Donald Trump mob ransacked the Capitol and drove legislators from both chambers. In the ensuing chaos, four people lost their lives. How did this happen? And what can possibly be done to set things right? All three hosts agree that it begins with holding the enablers accountable. But, tragically, our political system today punishes those who stand on principle and facts, and rewards demagogues peddling falsehoods.
With that out of the way, the three discuss Amb. (ret.) Michael McFaul’s analysis of the Cold War’s lessons for policy toward China. In the end, McFaul urges U.S. policymakers to adopt a “complicated, nuanced path” toward China, combining “sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, [and] isolation and integration.” But can the United States actually execute such a sophisticated strategy? Or do American domestic politics drive us toward extremes and overreach? Shout outs for the Washington Football Team and a Twitter sensation who makes old pictures even more beautiful. Zack and Chris bash Trump and his Republican enablers.
Links
- Michael McFaul, “Cold War Lessons and Fallacies for US-China Relations Today,” The Washington Quarterly, December 11, 2020
- “Pentagon Insists US Military Will Only Interfere in Foreign Elections,” Duffle Blog, January 4, 2021
- Lisa Mascaro and Mary Clare Jalonick, “More GOP Lawmakers Enlist in Trump Effort to Undo Biden Win,” Associated Press, January 2, 2021
- Michael McFaul, "Xi Jinping is Not Stalin," Foreign Affairs, August 10, 2020
- Lauren Tarshis, I Survived the Battle of D-Day, (Scholastic, 2019)
- Marina Amaral, Tweet, January 04, 2020
- “Could China Seize and Occupy Taiwan Militarily?” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 26, 2020
- Amy Gardner and Paulina Firozi, “Here’s the full transcript and audio of the call between Trump and Raffensperger,” The Washington Post, January 5, 2021
- Yuval Levin, “Failures of Leadership in a Populist Age,” National Review, January 4, 2021
- Odd Arne Westad, “The Sources of Chinese Conduct: Are Washington and Beijing Fighting a New Cold War?” Foreign Affairs, (September/October 2019)
- "Abraham Lincoln’s Address Before the Young Men’s Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois," Libertarianism, January, 27, 1838
Chris, Melanie, and Zack end the year with a special episode of Net Assessment where they do a deep dive into their favorite films and television series. They discuss their favorite spy movie, World War II film, a movie that inspired their career, and one that is good for teaching.
Chris
- No Way Out
- A Bridge Too Far
- Holland’s Opus
- Crimson Tide
Melanie
- The Bureau
- Band of Brothers
- Law and Order
- Glory
- Black Hawk Down
Zack
- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
- Saving Private Ryan
- Clear and Present Danger
- Thirteen Days
- Dr. Strangelove
Melanie, Chris, and Zack wrap up 2020 by reviewing developments over the last year and debating what might happen in 2021. They disagree over the wisdom of Lloyd Austin's nomination for secretary of defense, and discuss which of Donald Trump's foreign policy decisions were the best and worst over the last year. Each also highlights their favorite books and articles, and notes profiles in both courage and cowardice.
Links
- Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” Washington Quarterly, Winter 2020.
- Jim Golby, "Sorry, Gen. Lloyd Austin. A Recently Retired General Should Not Be Secretary of Defense," New York Times, December 7, 2020
- Kishore Mahbubani, Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, (Public Affairs, 2020)
- Ana Swanson, “With Americans Stuck at Home, Trade with China Roars Back,” New York Times, December 14, 2020
- Alex Ward, “The Single Biggest Foreign Policy Decision Joe Biden Faces,” Vox, December 14, 2020
- Joe Biden, “Why I Chose Lloyd Austin as Secretary of Defense,” The Atlantic, December 8, 2020
- Australian Government Department of Defense, "2020 Defense Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan," July 2020
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss Joshua Rovner’s recent War on the Rocks article, “Intelligence in the Biden Administration.” Rover argues that President-elect Joe Biden should immediately rebuild relations with the intelligence agencies. How can he go about doing that in difficult political circumstances and after years of them being treated with contempt during the Donald Trump administration? What role does Congress have in ensuring our intelligence agencies are functioning properly? How will Biden use the intelligence community to enhance U.S. security and prosperity? The crew also wonders why, with other national security team members in place, Biden has not yet named a secretary of defense. Finally, Chris surprises us with a promise to make a holiday dessert, Melanie has some praise for those working on vaccines, and Zack gives a shout out to the Bombshell podcast hosts as their amazing show ends.
Links
- Joshua Rovner, "Intelligence in the Biden Administration," War on the Rocks, November 25, 2020
- Robert Jervis, "Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash," Political Science Quarterly, November 02, 2010
- Samantha Lee, "Moderna's Groundbreaking Coronavirus Vaccine Was Designed in Just Two Days," Business Insider, November 26, 2020
- Rosa Brooks, "It's Time for a Woman to Run the Defense Department," The New York Times, November 30, 2020
- Christopher Krebs, "Trump fired me for saying this, but I'll say it again: The election wasn't rigged," The Washington Post, December 1, 2020
- Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, "Pentagon Purges Leading Advisors From Defense Policy Board," Foreign Policy, November 25, 2020
- Zack Cooper, "Bad Ideas Series: 'Great Power Competition' Terminology," Center for Strategic and International Studies, December 1, 2020
- Brad Stapleton, “The Problem with the Light Footprint: Shifting Tactics in Lieu of Strategy,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 792, June 7, 2016
- Paul R. Pillar, “Intelligence, Policy, and the War in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006
The crew convenes for the first show after Joe Biden’s election victory to consider how Americans want to engage with the rest of the world, and whether the incoming Biden administration will be able to heal the nation’s wounds while also restoring U.S. global leadership. Does an inward focus on the COVID-19 pandemic, a sluggish economy, and racial tensions necessarily mean that the United States will neglect the wider world? Or can it lead by example, proving that by solving its own problems it can help solve global problems as well? And in our polarized political environment, does it even make sense to talk about “Americans” as a unified whole? Or do differences between Republicans and Democrats, young and old, or rich and poor, prevent U.S. policymakers from crafting and executing a consistent and coherent approach to the world? Grievances abound for Republican elected officials’ collective unwillingness to acknowledge Biden’s victory, and attaboys to the American people for turning out to vote in historic numbers, and to the media for covering the vote-counting carefully and cautiously. And Melanie offers a heartfelt attagirl to her beloved niece Miri who is fighting a serious disease with grace and spirit. (Be warned: It’s a tear-jerker!)
Links:
- Jonathan Monten, Joshua Busby, Joshua D. Kertzer, Dina Smeltz, and Jordan Tama, "Americans Want to Engage the World," Foreign Affairs, November 3, 2020
- Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm, “Divided We Stand: Democrats and Republicans Diverge on US Foreign Policy,” Chicago Council on Global Affairs, September 17, 2020
- Mark Hannah and Caroline Gray, "Diplomacy & Restraint the Worldview of American Voters," Eurasia Group Foundation, September 2020
- “About Those Polls…,” The Daily, November 12, 2020
- Maggie Haberman, Michael D. Shear, Maggie Astor and Peter Baker, “Republicans Are Split over Whether to Call the Election Over,” New York Times, November 8, 2020
- Kaelen Deese, “Hogan Congratulates Biden, Harris on Election Victory: 'Everyone Should Want Our President to Succeed,'” The Hill, November 7, 2020
- Christopher Preble, “The Biden Administration Can Both Look Inward and Provide Leadership on the Global Stage,” Atlantic Council, November 9, 2020
- Aaron Mehta, "Where President-Elect Joe Biden Stands on National Security Issues," Defense News, November 8, 2020
- Elisabeth Braw, "Defense Spending and What We Can Learn from Sweden," On the Cusp Podcast, November 2, 2020
- Myhre Syndrome
Bryan McGrath rejoins the Net Assessment team to discuss the U.S. Navy's Battle Force 2045 proposal. Bryan, Melanie, Chris, and Zack agree that the proposed 500 ship force is a fantasy that will not be fully funded. But they express optimism that these plans will provide useful starting points for deeper thinking about the Navy's future force. Chris launches an email etiquette crusade, Zack complains about sexism in defense reporting, Bryan commends the name of the Navy's first guided missile frigate, and Melanie urges everyone to vote.
Links
- "Secretary of Defense Remarks at CSBA on the NDS and Future Defense Modernization Priorities," Department of Defense, October 6, 2020
- Megan Eckstein, "SECDEF Esper Calls for 500-Ship Fleet by 2045, With 3 SSNs a Year and Light Carriers Supplementing CVNS," USNI News, October 6, 2020
- Bryan McGrath, "Deterring War, Conducting War, Ending War: What Seapower Does," CDR Salamander Blog, August 26, 2020
- Bryan McGrath, Twitter, October 16, 20
- Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt, "A Trump Victory May Push His Defense Secretary Out an Open Door," New York Times, October 23, 2020
- David B. Larter, "S. State Department to Allow Sale of Hundreds of Anti-Ship Missiles to Taiwan Amid Diplomatic Row," Defense News, October 26, 2020
- Brandon Valeriano, Twitter, October 18, 2020
- Harlan Ullman, “Battle Force 2045 Raises Important Questions,” US Naval Institute Proceedings, October 2020
- Ronald O’Rourke, “Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, October 7, 2020
- Ronald O’Rourke and Michael Moodie, “S. Role in the World: Background and Issues for Congress,” Congressional Research Service, Updated August 26, 2020
- Mark Montgomery, "Is Esper's New Plan for the Navy Enough for the Indo-Pacific?", War on the Rocks, October 21, 2020
- Emily Oster, "Schools Aren't Super-Spreaders," Atlantic, October 9, 2020
- Jay Nordlinger, "Trump and Dictators," National Review, October 20, 2020
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about U.S. nuclear policy. Should the United States have a "no first use" policy? If so, would that affect choices our allies and partners, as well as adversaries, might make? Has the volatile presidency of Donald Trump shown that more checks are needed in the nuclear weapons launch process?
Chris gives a shout out to those Americans already waiting in long lines to vote, Zack applauds Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley for clearly stating that the military has no place in resolving the outcome of an election, and Melanie is happy to see an increasing number of countries condemning the human rights atrocities in China.
Links
- William J. Perry and Tom Z. Collina, "Who Can We Trust with the Nuclear Button? No One," New York Times, June 22, 2020
- Masakatsu Ota, "Japanese Nuclear Policy After Hiroshima, After Abe, and After Nov. 3," War on the Rocks, September 14, 2020
- Christianna Silva, " Mark Milley Says The Military Has 'No Role' In Elections," NPR, October 11, 2020
- “Emma Ashford and Erica Borghard Join the Atlantic Council,“ Atlantic Council, October 5, 2020
- Julia Jones, “Inside the Plot to Kidnap Gov. Whitmer,” CNN, October 11, 2020
- Jason Morris, Nick Valencia, Annie Grayer and Marshall Cohen, “Massive Lines Mar Start of In-Person Early Voting in Georgia,” CNN, October 13, 2020
Why is America’s global influence in decline? And what can be done to get it back? In a recent study, the RAND Corporation’s James Dobbins, Gabrielle Tarini, and Ali Wyne, trace the former unipolar power’s struggles to several factors, but point chiefly to "the classic cycle of hubris followed by nemesis." A sequence of "success, overconfidence, overstretch, failure, and retreat," they write, explains how "domestic politics, foreign policy, and external events interacted to diminish American influence." Chris, Melanie, and Zack appreciated the effort, but had some questions. The study’s attempt to score American successes and failures dating back to 1945 falls flat, but the global public’s reactions to these efforts isn’t in dispute: the United States isn’t trusted to solve the world’s problems, and many worry that it is making things worse. What can be done to reinvigorate Americans’ global engagement, and win back the trust of allies and partners? And who will take the lead in getting us back on track? Zack praises FBI director Chris Wray for doing his job, and Chris and Melanie give shout outs to acts of human decency.
Links:
- James Dobbins, Gabrielle Tarini, Ali Wyne, “The Lost Generation in American Foreign Policy,” RAND, September 2020
- Dina Smeltz, Ivo H. Daalder, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura, and Brendan Helm, "Divided We Stand," Chicago Council on Global Affairs, September 17, 2020
- "US election: Trump Won't Commit to Peaceful Transfer of Power," BBC News, September 24, 2020
- Devlin Barrett, "FBI Director Affirms Russia’s Aim to ‘Denigrate’ Biden Ahead of Election," The Washington Post, September 17, 2020
- Eliott C. McLaughlin, “Portland Protests Remain Largely Peaceful Until Night Falls and Police are Targeted, Authorities Say,” CNN, September 28, 2020
- Ryan Bergeron, “A 72-Year-Old Woman was Quietly Living in a Dilapidated House. Then an Electrician Sparked a Community to Help Her Rebuild,” CNN, September 24, 2020
- “Unsung Heroes 2020,” The Atlantic Council
- Scott Lincicome, "It's Time We Had a Talk about Tariffs," The Dispatch, September 29, 2020
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate the role of ideology in American foreign policy. Bridge Colby and Robert Kaplan have recently argued that the United States should avoid making the competition with China overly ideological, but Zack suggests that this will be easier said than done. Chris worries about the difficulty of emphasizing ideology when the United States isn't practicing what it preaches. Melanie notes the importance of alliance building for managing foreign threats, which has major implications for the role of ideology. She also talks about a quintessential Net Assessment topic: forestry practices.
Links:
- Elbridge Colby and Robert D. Kaplan, “The Ideology Delusion,” Foreign Affairs, September 4, 2020
- Kori Schake, Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2017)
- Aaron Friedberg, “Competing with China,” Survival, June 01, 2018
- Jessica Chen Weiss, “An Ideological Contest in U.S.-China Relations? Assessing China’s Defense of Autocracy,” SSRN, July 30, 2019
- “A Special Conversation with Zack Cooper and Laura Rosenberger,” Biden Institute, September 21, 2020
- Fareed Zakaria, “We Need to Prepare for This 'Deeply Worrying' Scenario on Election Day,” CNN, September 13, 2020
- Christina Morales and Allyson Waller, “A Gender-Reveal Celebration Is Blamed for a Wildfire. It Isn’t the First Time” New York Times, September 7, 2020
- Elizabeth Weil, "They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won't Anybody Listen?" ProPublica, August 28, 2020
- Delilah Friedler, "California's Wildfire Policy Totally Backfired. Native Communities Know How to Fix It," Mother Jones, November 2019
- Alessio Patalano, "What Is China's Strategy in the Senkaku Islands?", War on the Rocks, September 10, 2020
- Aaron Friedberg, "Getting the China Challenge Right," American Interest, January 10, 2019
- Stephen Walt, "Everyone Misunderstands the Reason for the US-China Cold War," Foreign Policy, June 30, 2020
- Yashar Ali, Tweet, September 13, 2020
Zack, Chris, and Melanie get together to talk about what American foreign policy might look like after Jan. 20, 2021. Would President Joe Biden seek a restoration of Obama administration policies, or will he stake out his own doctrine? What will the economic side of America’s foreign policy look like in a second Trump or first Biden administration? Can America’s relationships with allies survive another Trump term? Would a Biden administration be able to repair partnerships that have suffered damage in the last four years? Where would human rights fit in a Biden agenda? Who might the important players be in each administration?
Chris issues a plea for calm and unity, Zack has some kind thoughts for outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and Melanie gives an attaboy to Africa for eradicating wild polio.
Links
- David A. Wemer, “Adviser on Biden’s Foreign Policy: Start at Home and Repair Alliances,” Elections 2020, Atlantic Council, August 21, 2020
- Emma Ashford, “Biden Wants to Return to a ‘Normal’ Foreign Policy. That’s the Problem,” New York Times, August 25, 2020
- Mark Johnson, Annysa Johnson, Talis Shelbourne, “Juxtaposition of Two Videos from Kenosha: A Black Man Gets Shot Seven Times from Behind; A White Teen with a Gun Walks Past Police,” Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, August 29, 2020
- Susan Eisenhower, “My Grandfather Led by Building Trust among Troops and, Later, the Public,” Dallas Morning News, August 30, 2020
- “Should Europe Go its Own Way?” Atlantic Council, September 17, 2020
- John Sipher, “Trump Creates His Own ‘Deep State’,” New York Times, September 1, 2020
- “An Inside Look at the Department of Defense’s China Military Power Report,” American Enterprise Institute, September 1, 2020
- Joe Biden, "Joe Biden Answers Our Foreign Policy Questions," Council on Foreign Relations, August 1, 2019
- Akbar Shahid Ahmed, "Democrats are Walking a Fine Line on the Election's Main Foreign Policy Issue: China," Huffington Post, August 22, 2020
- Alex Ward, "'America First, but on Steroids': What Trump's Second Term Foreign Policy Might Look Like," Vox, August 26, 2020
- Emma Ashford, "Biden Wants to Return to a 'Normal' Foreign Policy. That's the Problem," New York Times, August 25, 2020
- Van Jackson, "Biden's China Policy Can't Help but be Incoherent," Foreign Policy, August 13, 2020
- Kori Schake, "Biden's Bad Foreign Policy Ideas," The Atlantic, June 7, 2020
- “The Future of Grand Strategy in A Post-COVID World,” Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, September 9, 2020
- Joe Biden, "Why America Must Lead Again," Foreign Affairs, January 23, 2020
Chris, Melanie, and Zack discuss the renewed debate over the present and future of U.S.-Russian relations. Two competing open letters make the case for or against the status quo, which is increasingly characterized by deep suspicion and rising tension. Is Vladimir Putin to blame? Or do the roots of U.S.-Russian enmity run deeper? Are constructive diplomatic relations impossible so long as Putin is in charge? Or should U.S. policymakers look past Putin’s many offenses in the interest of reducing the risk of conflict? The crew give a special attaboy to Brent Scowcroft, who died earlier this month. Scowcroft was national security advisor to two U.S. presidents and counselor to at least four others. Zack also praises the protesters in Belarus and Melanie gives a special shout out to Polish filmmaker Agniezska Holland for “Mr. Jones,” a film about a young journalist who blew the lid off the Holodomor, the manmade famine in Ukraine which killed millions in the early 1930s.
Links
- Rose Gottemoeller, Thomas Graham, Fiona Hill, et al, “It’s Time to Rethink Our Russia Policy,” POLITICO, August 5, 2020
- David J. Kramer, et al, “No, Now Is Not the Time for Another Russia Reset,” POLITICO, August 11, 2020
- Lydia Saad, “Majority of Americans Now Consider Russia a Critical Threat,” Gallup, February 27, 2019
- Adam Taylor, “More Russians Are Sure of the U.S. Meddling in Their Politics than the Other Way Around, Poll Finds,” Washington Post, February 7, 2018
- Frederick Kempe and Jeffrey Lightfoot, “The Legacy Brent Scowcroft Leaves Behind,” Atlantic Council, August 7, 2020
- Jacob Heilbrunn, “A Tribute to Brent Scowcroft,” The National Interest, August 7, 2020
- Bartholomew Sparrow and Doyle Hodges, “Brent Scowcroft and the Call of National Security,” Horns of a Dilemma, August 14, 2020
- Josh Rudolph and Thomas Morley, "Covert Foreign Money: Financial Loopholes Exploited by Authoritarians to Fund Political Interference in Democracies," Alliance for Securing Democracy, 2020
- Scott Neuman, "Belarus Factory Workers Walk Out, Joining Mass Protests Calling for President to Quit," National Public Radio, August 17, 2020
- Robert M. Gates, "The Scowcroft Model," Foreign Affairs, August 13, 2020,
- Elizabeth Rosenberg and Jordan Tama, "Strengthening the Economic Arsenal," Center for a New American Security, December 16, 2019
- Ryan Goodman and Asha Rangappa, "How Sen. Ron Johnson's Investigation Became an Enabler of Russian Disinformation: Part I," Just Security, August 11, 2020
Melanie, Chris, and Zack debate Michèle Flournoy’s recent Foreign Affairs article about how to prevent war in Asia by reinforcing deterrence against China. They discuss the importance of senior Democrats placing renewed emphasis on Asia, and ask what this might mean in light of the likely downward pressure on the defense budget. Chris asks whether the strategy is too reliant on U.S. power projection rather than allied anti-access/area denial capabilities. Melanie questions why the United States hasn’t adjusted more quickly to focus on Asia. And Zack notes that some U.S. allies are making important defense strategy shifts, partially prompted by fears of U.S. disengagement.
Links
- Michèle Flournoy, “How to Prevent a War in Asia: The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation,” Foreign Affairs, June 18, 2020
- Heather Conley and Kathleen Hicks, “Pentagon action to withdraw from Germany benefits our adversaries,” The Hill, Aug. 4, 2020
- Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Martin, and Reid J. Epstein, “Trump Floats an Election Delay, and Republicans Shoot It Down,” The New York Times, July 30, 2020
- Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, "Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia," Washington Quarterly, Winter 2020
- Steven Erlanger, “Turkish Aggression Is NATO’s ‘Elephant in the Room,’” New York Times, Aug. 3, 2020
- Patrick Chevallereau, “The Worm Is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO,” RUSI, July 31, 2020
- Patrick Porter, The False Promise of Liberal Order: Nostalgia, Delusion and the Rise of Trump (Polity, 2020)
The 2017 National Security Strategy states that “economic security is national security.” Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to discuss how the United States might strengthen and use its economic power in an increasingly competitive and connected world to enhance our national security. They ask if our political leadership is capable of defining goals and assessing means to achieve them, how much the government (taxpayers) should support technological research, and what benefits and risks that might carry. Can we prevent public investments in domestic innovation from being a source of cronyism and inefficiency? What criteria should we use to determine how resources are distributed, and what should we expect in return? Any successful agenda will require domestic and international action. Do we have the political will to make smart reforms to laws and regulations, or will entrenched interests and stale systems stop even incremental changes? How can we manage international partnerships in a way that will promote American prosperity and security? Chris has a grievance for over regulation, Zack applauds David Stilwell for setting forth a new U.S.-South China Sea policy, and Melanie criticizes the administration for its campaign to undermine Dr. Fauci.
Links
- David H. McCormick, Charles E. Luftig, James M. Cunningham, “Economic Might, National Security, and the Future of American Statecraft,” Texas National Security Review, Summer 2020
- Elizabeth Rosenberg, Peter E. Harrell, and Ashley Feng, "A New Arsenal for Competition," CNAS, April 24, 2020
- Juan Zarate, Treasury's War (New York, PublicAffairs, 2013)
- Mike Pompeo, "S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea," U.S. Department of State, July 13, 2020
- Michael R. Gordon and Gordon Lubold, "Trump Administration Weighs Troop Cut in South Korea," The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2020
- Zack Cooper, "Five Asia-Related Items to Watch in the National Defense Authorization Act," AEIdeas, July 15, 2020
- Chloe Melas, “6-Year Old Wyoming Boy Praised for Saving Sister from Dog Attack,” East Idaho News, July 16, 2020
- Michael Shear and Noah Weiland, “Fauci Back at the White House, a Day After Trump Aides Tried to Undermine Him,” New York Times, July 13, 2020
- Zack Cooper and Bonnie S. Glaser, “What Options are on the Table in the South China Sea?” War on the Rocks, July 22, 2020
Melanie, Zack, and Chris unpack why the United States has failed to contain the novel coronavirus. Most blame poor leadership in the United States — from the White House to public health officials and down to key figures in the media during the earliest stages of the disease. A more focused effort, sooner, as was implemented in many other developed countries, might have worked. But some see a deeper problem — American exceptionalism, especially an unwillingness to learn from the others’ approaches.
If the United States does not turn things around soon, and demonstrate its capacity for solving the pandemic, will U.S. allies and partners be as willing to follow its leadership on a range of other problems? What will be the lasting effects of COVID-19 on the global order, and America’s place in it?
Grievances are aired for Tucker Carlson, the House Armed Service Committee, and the Russians — and the Americans who excuse or ignore their behavior. Zack praises the Washington professional football team for its impending name change, and Chris praises the House and Senate Armed Services Committees for planning to do the same for U.S. military bases. Melanie gives a shout out to the Australians for a serious defense strategy and offers warm and heartfelt congratulations to her niece Kaylee for getting accepted to a top medical school — and to her mom (Melanie’s sister) for helping to set up her three daughters for success.
Links
- Jeremy Konyndyk, “Exceptionalism Is Killing Americans: An Insular Political Culture Failed the Test of the Pandemic,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, 2020
- Farhad Manjoo, “The World Builds a Wall to Keep America Out,” New York Times, July 1, 2020
- Rebecca Kheel, “House Panel Approves $740.5B Defense Policy Bill,” The Hill, July 1, 2020
- Jeff Cox, “The Coronavirus Will Cost the Economy Nearly $8 Trillion, Congressional Budget Office Says,” CNBC, July 1, 2020
- Rebecca Kheel, “House Armed Services Votes to Make Pentagon Rename Confederate-Named Bases in a Year,” The Hill, July 1, 2020
- Sam LaGrone, “Senate Bill to Purge Confederate Names from U.S. Military Could Affect Two Navy Ships,” USNI News, June 12, 2020
- “Challenging Convention: Charting a New Course for the New American Engagement Initiative,” Atlantic Council, July 9, 2020
- James Fallows, "The Three Weeks that Changed Everything," The Atlantic, June 29, 2020
- Stephen Grey, Andrew Macaskill, Ryan McNeill, Steve Stecklow, and Tommy Wilkes, "Into the Fog: How Britain Lost Track of the Coronavirus," Reuters, June 29, 2020
- Shalini Ramachandran, Laura Kusisto, and Katie Honan, "How New York's Coronavirus Response Made the Pandemic Worse," Wall Street Journal, June 11, 2020
- Chloe Taylor, "Belgium Had the Worst Response to the Coronavirus Crisis among OECD Countries, EIU Says," CNBC, June 17, 2020
- Eric A. Feldman, "Did Japan's Lenient Lockdown Conquer the Cornavirus?", The Reg Review, June 10, 2020
- William Sposato, "Japan's Halfhearted Coronavirus Measures are Working Anyway," Foreign Policy, May 14, 2020
- Lance Williams et al, "California Halted Reserve of Ventilators, Masks, Mobile Hospitals," Reveal News, March 27, 2020
- Megan Molteni, "How Masks Went from Don't Wear to Must Have," Wired, July 2, 2020
- Paul Krugman, "How America Lost the War on Covid-19," New York Times, July 6, 2020
- Kyle Mizokami, "The Air Force Names Its New Jet After the Tuskegee Airmen," Popular Mechanics, September 19, 2019
- Charlie Savage, Mujib Mashal, Rukmini Callimachi, Eric Schmitt, and Adam Goldman, "Suspicions of Russian Bounties Were Bolstered by Data on Financial Transfers," New York Times, June 30, 2020
- Arizona State University, "The Pandemic Dialogues: Great Power Competition and the Case of China"
The Cato Institute's Emma Ashford joins Melanie and Zack to discuss her recent article on how to "Build a Better Blob." They debate whether the foreign policy community is hostile to non-mainstream thinking, or just to non-experts. Emma outlines why the foreign policy community needs to embrace many forms of diversity (and why we all need to wear face masks). Melanie calls out Michael Pack, the new director of the U.S. Agency for Global Media, for appearing committed to dismantling his own organization. And Zack questions National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien's recent op-ed on withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany.
Links
- Emma Ashford, "Build a Better Blob," Foreign Affairs, May 29, 2020
- Susan Glasser, “Trump Takes on the Blob,” Politico Magazine, March/April 2020
- Emma Ashford, “Stay Home, Save the World,” Instick, April 13, 2020
- Paul Farhi, “After Departure of Voice of America Editors, New Trump-Appointed Overseer Fires Heads of Four Sister Organizations,” Washington Post, June 18, 2020
- Will Saletan,Tweet, June 5, 2020
- Tom Cotton, "Send in the Troops," New York Times, June 3, 2020
- Alan Hawkes, Tweet, June, 22, 2020
- Hal Brands, Peter Feaver, and William Inboden, "In Defense of the Blob," Foreign Affairs, April 29, 2020
- Robert Jervis "Liberalism, the Blob, and American Foreign Policy: Evidence and Methodology," Security Studies, 2020
- Mira Rapp-Hooper, Shields of the Republic (Harvard University Press, 2020)
- Robert O'Brien, "Why the U.S. Is Moving Troops Out of Germany," Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2020
Chris, Zack, and Melanie get together to talk about former Secretary of Defense Bob Gates’s Foreign Affairs article, “The United States Must Recover the Full Range of Its Power.” Against the backdrop of domestic and worldwide protests spurred by the murder of George Floyd, they ask whether we rely too much on the military to carry out America’s foreign policy goals. If so, why? Are we willing to establish criteria for when force should be used? Is it time to reassess the design of our national security bureaucracies? Do Gates’s calls for stronger American leadership ultimately undermine or enhance his hopes for a more diplomatic foreign policy? The gang also reviews the Netflix original Space Force and Chris gives a shout out to all the high school, college, and other graduates experiencing the big day virtually (including his son!). Finally, Zack congratulates Gen. Charles Brown on his unanimous confirmation as chief of staff of the Air Force and thanks him for sharing his personal experiences with discrimination and challenging us to be better.
Links
- Bob Gates, “The United States Must Recover the Full Range of Its Power,” Foreign Affairs, June 2, 2020
- David H. McCormick, Charles E. Luftig, and James M. Cunningham, “Economic Might, National Security, and the Future of American Statecraft,” Texas National Security Review, Summer 2020
- Robert Gates, “Landon Lecture,” Kansas State University, November 26, 2007
- Emma Ashford, “Build a Better Blob,” Foreign Affairs, May 29, 2020
- Edward Fishman, “How to Fix America’s Failing Sanctions Policy,” Lawfare, June 4, 2020
- Kaleth O. Wright, Tweet, June 01, 2020
- Gen. CQ Brown, Jr., "What I'm Thinking About," June 5, 2020
- "CSAF/CMSAF Dialogue on Race," June 4, 2020
- "America's Top Brass Break with Donald Trump," The Economist, June 6, 2020
- Mike Mullen, "I Cannot Remain Silent," The Atlantic, June 2, 2020
- Richard Immerman and Jeffrey Engel, Fourteen Points for the Twenty-First Century: A Renewed Appeal for Cooperative Internationalism, (University Press of Kentucky, 2020)
- Chris Cioffi, “McConnell Sets Vote for Trump Media Agency Pick, Who Has Ties to Steve Bannon,” Roll Call, June 4, 2020
- Colbert King, “Trump’s attack on the VOA reeks of McCarthyism,” Washington Post, April 18, 2020
Chris and Melanie welcome Zack Cooper as the new co-host of Net Assessment. They discuss the White House's new China strategy and debate whether the strategy matches President Trump's own views on U.S.-China relations. Chris points out the hubris of U.S. leaders stating that they "do not exclude China" from America's regional strategy, as if China's regional role is up to U.S. leaders. Zack points out the tension between calling out numerous Communist Party transgressions but accepting that the Party will remain in power indefinitely. Melanie calls out President Trump and expresses skepticism about Bob Zoellick's recent critique of "new cold warriors." Chris praises his Cato Institute colleagues and announces that he will co-directing the New American Engagement Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Links
- "US Strategic Approach to the People's Republic of China," White House, 2020
- Robert B. Zoellick, "The US Doesn't Need a New Cold War," Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2020
- "Hong Kong Security Law: Carrie Lam Dismisses Concerns Over Human Rights," BBC, May 26, 2020
- Adam Rosenberg, "Republican Governor Wants You To Stop Politicizing Wearing A Damn Mask," Mashable, May 24, 2020
- William Ruger, Tweet, May 22, 2020
- Alex Isenstadt, “GOP Memo Urges Anti-China Assault Over Coronavirus,” Politico, April 24, 2020
- Jon Lee Anderson, “The Coronavirus Hits Brazil Hard, But Jair Bolsonaro Is Unrepentant,” New Yorker, May 22, 2020
- “Trump's Brazil Travel Ban Begins Tuesday,” VOA News, May 26, 2020
- Yuval Levin,A Time to Build: From Family and Community to Congress and the Campus, How Recommitting to Our Institutions Can Revive the American Dream, (Basic Books, 2020)
- Chris Brose, "The End of America's Military Primacy," Wall Street Journal, May 22, 2020
- Ishaan Tharoor, "Is A US-China Cold War Already Underway?", Washington Post, May 15, 2020
Zack Cooper joins Melanie and Chris for a discussion of the post-COVID-19 international order. The struggle in both the United States and China to overcome the economic and health effects of the pandemic have called into question each country’s capacity for leadership. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd doubts that middle-tier powers will be able to fill that gap and deal with global challenges. But other signs suggest productive multilateral approaches, including some that barely involve Washington or Beijing. With the two leading powers increasingly locked in a zero-competition, will other countries demonstrate the continued value of cooperation? Melanie showers praise on country music legend and philanthropist Dolly Parton and throws shade on E.U. diplomats for abetting Chinese misinformation. Chris hopes a failed coup plotter’s 15 minutes of fame are up. And offer a brief remembrance for Jerry Stiller, the immortal voice of “and now, for the airing of grievances….”
Links
- Kevin Rudd, “The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy,” Foreign Affairs, May 6, 2020
- “Kevin Rudd on America, China and saving the WHO,” The Economist, April 11, 2020
- David Sanger and Nicole Perlroth, "US to Accuse China of Trying to Hack Vaccine Data, As Virus Redirects Cyberattacks" New York Times, May 10, 2020
- Jerry Dunleavy, "Crime Against Humanity," Washington Examiner, April 24, 2020
- Michael Birnbaum, "Beijing Censors Reference to China's Role in Outbreak in EU-Penned Op-Ed, Putting Bloc on Defensive,” The Age, May 7, 2020
- Adam Rawnsley, "Dolly Parton is Backing Research into Promising Covid Treatment," The Daily Beast, May 6, 2020
- Sheryl Gay Stolberg, "At Senate Hearing, Government Experts Paint Bleak Picture of the Pandemic," New York Times, May 12, 2020
- Su-Lin Tan, "China's Restrictions on Australian Beef, Barley Seen as Retaliation for Support of Coronavirus Investigation," South China Morning Post, May 12, 2020
- Damien Cave and Isabella Kwai, “China Is Defensive. The U.S. Is Absent. Can the Rest of the World Fill the Void?” New York Times, May 11, 2020
- Peter Keepnews, “Jerry Stiller, Comedian with Enduring Appeal, Is Dead at 92,” New York Times, May 11, 2020
- Brendan Rittenhouse Green, Cato Institute
- Christopher Fettweis, Cato Institute
- Joshua Rovner, Cato Institute
Chris and Melanie are joined by Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute to discuss Mark Hannah's recent War on the Rocks article "Stop Declaring War on a Virus." They discuss why ubiquitous use of the war metaphor might affect how we deal with the coronavirus pandemic, if America's focus on defense is to blame for our less-than-stellar handling of the health crisis, and how political leaders can use the rhetorical framework of war to rapidly increase government power with little oversight. Chris explains why social distancing (at this point) doesn't violate libertarian principles, Zack denounces China's threat of economic retaliation if Australia continues to push for an investigation into the origins of the pandemic, and Melanie has some praise for the Commandant of the Marine Corps.
Links
- Mark Hannah, "Stop Declaring War on a Virus," War on the Rocks, April 17, 2020
- Derrick Bryson Taylor, "Marine Corps Bans Public Display of Confederate Flag," April 23, 2020
- Rob Thompson, Tweets, April 1, 2020
- Rym Momtaz, "Inside Emmanuel Macron's Coronovirus War," Politico Europe, April 12, 2020
- Mary McCord, "Trump's 'LIBERATE MICHIGAN'" Tweets Incite Insurrection. That's Illegal," Washington Post, April 17, 2020,
- Emily Nussbuam, Tweet, April 26, 2020
- Edward Wong, Tweet, April 27, 2020
- Aila Slisco, “Leader of North Carolina Protests Against Stay-at-Home Tests Positive for Coronavirus” Newsweek, April 27, 2020
- Pam Belluck, “32 Days on a Ventilator: One Covid Patient’s Fight to Breathe Again,” New York Times, April 26, 2020
- Mark Hannah and Caroline Gray, "Global Views of American Democracy," Eurasia Group Foundation, April 2020
- M. Tang et al., "The State of Southeast Asia: 2020," ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 2020
- Amelia Lucas, “Kegs Are Going Bad As Coronavirus Keeps Restaurants Closed. Boston Beer Has a Solution,” CNBC, April 24, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has severely disrupted the global economy, and its impact is likely to last for many months. But some foresee (and are hoping for) permanent changes to global trade: They want businesses to restructure their supply chains and bring more operations back home, thereby reducing dependence upon foreign workers and potential vulnerability to pressure from foreign governments. Some are even willing to pay companies’ relocation costs. In the post-COVID-19 world, will business leaders reconsider the trade-offs between efficiency and resilience against major supply disruptions? How are governments’ responses to the pandemic likely to influence these decisions? And what are the national security implications? Ben Jensen again joins Chris and Melanie to discuss these and other questions. In the grievances and attaboys portion of the show, the trio showers praise on those men and women working to solve the COVID-19 problem and showing random acts of kindness toward their fellow humans, while throwing shade on those who often seem to be standing in the way.
Links
- Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, “Will the Coronavirus End Globalization as We Know It?” Foreign Affairs, March 16, 2020
- David Henderson, “Liberation From Lockdown Now,” American Institute for Economic Research, April 13, 2020
- Justin Amash, Twitter, April 11, 2020
- Helen Davidson, “Senior WHO Adviser Appears to Dodge Question on Taiwan’s Covid-19 Response,” Guardian, March 30, 2020
- Melanie Conklin, “Chinese Government Asks Wisconsin Senator for a Commendation,” Wisconsin Examiner, April 10, 2020
- Michael Birnbaum and Terrence McCoy, “As Leaders Seize Powers to Fight Coronavirus, Fear Grows for Democracy,” Washington Post, April 12, 2020
- Jenni Marsh, “Beijing Faces a Diplomatic Crisis after Reports of Mistreatment of Africans in China Causes Outrage,” CNN, April 13, 2020
Chris and Melanie sit down with Mark Cancian of CSIS to discuss the final report of the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service. They discuss what public service is, what role the government should play in encouraging it, and how COVID-19 and the response to it might affect what opportunities people see for service. Looking at military service specifically, they consider possible reforms to the Selective Service System and take up the commission's recommendation that women be required to register for the draft. Finally, Chris is making progress on a new book, Mark applauds the president for talking about COVID-19 and risks we may have to learn to deal with, and Melanie is grateful for the spontaneous public service we see from so many people during this difficult time.
Links
- "Most Women Oppose Having to Register for the Draft," Rasmussen Reports, February 10, 2016
- Christopher Preble, "Don’t Make Women Register for the Draft. Just End Draft Registration for Everyone," Washington Post, February 5, 2016
- “Poll: Include Women in U.S. Military Drafts,” Sachs Media Group, June 21, 2013
Amidst the deepening Coronavirus crisis, Melanie and Chris discuss another type of invisible danger: the threats posed by both state and non-state actors in cyberspace. They’re joined by the Marine Corps University’s Benjamin Jensen, senior research director and lead writer for the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, which issued its report earlier this month. Ben offers an insider’s perspective on how the commission approached its work, and outlines its key findings. What strategies should the United States employ to reduce its vulnerability to cyber threats? And what must the U.S. government and private sector do to implement these strategies? Melanie delivers a heartfelt attagirl to her amazing mom; Ben praises Solarium Commission chairmen Sen. Angus King and Rep. Mike Gallagher; and Chris offers thanks to Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health.
Links
- Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report, March 2020,
- “Tracking the Coronavirus,”
- “The Ultimate Guide to Oregon Women's Basketball Star Sabrina Ionescu,” ESPN, February 29, 2020
- James Fallows, “2020 Time Capsule #2: The Exceptional Dr. Fauci,” The Atlantic, March 13, 2020
- Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Cato, January 15, 2019
The Net Assessment crew is back to discuss Carter Malkasian’s Foreign Affairs article, “How the Good War Went Bad: America’s Slow-Motion Failure in Afghanistan.” In this episode, Melanie and Chris are joined by Chris Brose, head of strategy at Anduril Industries. The trio dissect whether this peace deal is better than any other deal the United States could have struck in the past 18 years of fighting, and how much confidence the United States can have in the agreement. Are there facts on the battlefield that have made this agreement possible or is America just tired of fighting the war in Afghanistan? Also, Chris P. gives an attaboy to Mayor Pete, Chris B. tips his hat to Joe Biden, and Melanie gives a shout out to modern medicine.
Links
- Carter Malkasian, “How the Good War Went Bad: America’s Slow-Motion Failure in Afghanistan,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020
- John Glaser and John Mueller, “Overcoming Inertia: Why It’s Time to End the War in Afghanistan,” Cato, August 13, 2019
- Lauren Egan, “Trump Calls Coronavirus Democrats' 'New Hoax,'” NBC News, February 28, 2020
- Frank Bruni, “Mayor Pete Flew Sky High,” New York Times, March 1, 2020
- Michele Flournoy and Stephen Hadley, "The US Deal with the Taliban is an Important First Step," Washington Post, February 29, 2020
- Mark Esper, "This is Our Chance to Bring Troops Home from Afghanistan for Good," Washington Post, February 29, 2020
- Ari Levy and Alex Sherman, "Vox Media to Cut Hundreds of Freelance Jobs Ahead of Changes in California Gig Economy Laws," Washington Post, December 16 ,2019
- Katy Grimes, "California's AB5 Kills off 40-Year Lake Tahoe Music Festival," California Globe, March 1, 2020
- Jeremy Brown, "The Coronavirus is No 1918 Pandemic," Atlantic, March 3, 2020
In this episode, Chris and Melanie are joined by Thomas Spoehr of the Heritage Foundation to talk about President Trump's FY2021 defense budget request: What's good in this budget, what's really bad, and what surprised them the most. Chris presses the issue of hearings on Afghanistan, Melanie recommends a new book on the presidency, and Thomas applauds a celebration of Washington's birthday.
Links
- "President's Budget FY 2021," White House, February 10, 2020
- "Defense Budget Overview: Irreversible Implementation of the National Defense Strategy," Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, February 2020
- Aaron Mehta, "Here's How Much Money the Pentagon Found through Internal Savings and Where It's Going," Defense News, February 6, 2020
- David Larter, "As China Continues Rapid Naval Expansion, the US Navy Begins Stockpiling Ship-Killing Missiles," Defense News, February 11, 2020
- Andrew Taylor, "Trump's $4.8 Trillion Budget Proposal Revisits Rejected Cuts," AP News, February 10, 2020
- Marcus Weisgerber, "DOD's 2021 Budget Would Trim Arsenal, Shift Funds to Arms Development," Defense One, February 10, 2020
- Stephen F. Knott, The Lost Soul of the American Presidency, (University of Kansas Press, 2019)
- Ashley Townsend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, and Matilda Steward, "Averting Crisis: American Strategy Military Spending, and Collective Defense in the Indo-Pacific," United States Studies Centre, August 19, 2019
- Thomas Spoehr, “Why the US Navy Needs At Least 355 Ships,” National Interest, February 11, 2020
Special guest Alice Hunt Friend joins Melanie and Chris for a very timely discussion about the possible repeal of the Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMFs) that presidents have used to justify a range of military operations since 9/11. A few members of Congress have been pushing to repeal these AUMFs for years, and even some reliably conservative voices now support such a move in the interest of restoring the proper balance between the legislative and executive branches on the critical question of war and peace. But most House and Senate Republicans oppose repeal. Would they change their tune with a Democrat in the White House? Or is there a partisan divide on the president’s war powers, with Republicans more inclined to defer to the chief executive and Democrats more inclined to rein in such power? Alice gives a shout out to SOCOM and throws shade on U.S. policy toward Libya, while Melanie dishes on former SEAL Eddie Gallagher. Chris doesn’t like Sen. Tom Cotton’s comments on China and the coronavirus, but he does like puppies!
Links
- Charles Stimson, "Why Repealing the 1991 and 2002 Iraq War Authorizations Is Sound Policy" Heritage Foundation, January 6, 2020
- Kevin Williamson, "Repeal the AUMF," National Review, January 5, 2020
- Elaine Luria and Max Rose, “Why We Voted Against the War Powers Resolution,” New York Times, January 11, 2020
- Megan Thielking and Lev Facher, “Health Experts Warn China Travel Ban Would Hinder Coronavirus Response,” STAT, January 31, 2020
- Adam Taylor, “China’s Coronavirus Has No Links to Weapons Research, Experts Say,” Washington Post, January 29, 2020
- Animal Planet’s “Puppy Bowl XVI”
- Andrew Dyer, "Retired Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher Strikes Back at SEALs Who Testified Against Him," San Diego Union-Tribune, January 28, 2020
- Gene Healy and John Glaser, "Repeal, Don't Replace, Trump's War Powers," New York Times, April 17, 2018
- Matthew Rosenberg, "Faulty Iowa App was Part of Push to Restore Democrats' Digital Edge," New York Times, February 4, 2020
- Noah Rothman, "Iowa in the Age of Mistrust," Commentary, February 4, 2020
Chris Brose of Anduril Industries joins Chris and Melanie to talk about Joseph Nye’s Texas National Security Review article, “What is a Moral Foreign Policy?” Should morality be taken into consideration when making foreign policy? How should we assess whether or not a president’s foreign policy is moral? Does using the language of morality make our foreign policy more or less clear? Do people in other countries view our foreign policy as moral? Should perception matter at home or abroad? Also, Chris Preble gets another opportunity to stick it to Saudi Arabia, Melanie shows some love for history, and Chris Brose recognizes the excellent work of some friends.
Links
- Joseph S. Nye Jr., “What is a Moral Foreign Policy?” Texas National Security Review, November 2019
- Joe Heim, "National Archives Exhibit Blurs Images Critical of President Trump," Washington Post, January 17, 2020
- Craig Whitlock, "Afghan War Plagued by 'Mendacity' and Lies, Inspector General Tells Congress," Washington Post, January 15, 2020
- Barack Obama, Presidential Study Directive 10, White House, August 4, 2011
- Rahul Sagar, "Rediscovering Indian Thought: How a Scholar Built a Database of Pre-Independence Magazines," Scroll, November 24, 2019
- "War with Iraq Is not in America's National Interest," New York Times, September 26, 2002
- Marc Fisher and Steven Zeitchik, “Saudi Crown Prince Implicated in Hack of Jeff Bezos’s Phone, U.N. Report Will Say,” Washington Post, January 21, 2020
- Heritage Pride Productions' Elf: The Musical, January 23, 24, and 25th
- “The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy: 2020 and Beyond,” Cato Policy Forum, January 28th, 5:00 PM
- "Is War Over?” Cato Policy Forum, February 6th, 12:00 PM
After a long holiday hiatus, Hudson’s Patrick Cronin joins Melanie and Chris in a spirited discussion of U.S. policy toward China. How is this competition like the Cold War with the Soviet Union, and what’s different? What aspects of China’s behavior are most worrisome? What steps can be taken to reduce the likelihood of conflict? Or is a clash, even if it is mostly non-military in nature, inevitable? Patrick gives a shout out to the heroic men and women fighting wildfires in Australia, Melanie expresses her appreciation for Ricky Gervais, and Chris offers kudos to the U.S. press corps.
Links:
- Fareed Zakaria, "The New China Scare: Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger" Foreign Affairs, January/February 2020
- Christopher Preble, “A Useful Corrective to China Fearmongering,” Cato, December 6, 2019
- Christopher A. Preble, “NDAA 2020: Congress Neglects Its Responsibility Once Again,” Cato, December 10, 2019
- Salvador Rizzo, "Anatomy of a Trump Rally: 67 Percent of Claims Are False or Lacking Evidence," Washington Post, January 7, 2020
- “In 1,055 Days, President Trump Has Made 15,413 False or Misleading Claims,” Washington Post, December 10, 2019
- Jordan Hoffman, "No One Knows Where Mike Pence Got His Soleimani 'Facts' From," Vanity Fair, January 4, 2020
- John Hudson, Josh Dawsey, Shane Harris, and Dan Lemothe, "Killing of Soleimani Follows Long Push From Pompeo For Aggressive Action Against Iran, but Airstrike Brings Serious Risks," Washington Post, January 5, 2020
- Richard Fontaine, “Great Power Competition is Washington’s Top Priority, but Not the Public’s,” Foreign Affairs, September 11, 2019
- Nils Gilman, “China, Capitalism, and the New Cold War,” American Interest, November 18, 2019
- Justin Rohrlich, “A Chinese Tourist Accused of Espionage is the Latest Example of a Growing Threat to US Security,” Quartz, January 5, 2020
- Josh Blackman, Tweets, January 6, 2020
- Ricky Gervais, 2020 Golden Globes, January 5, 2020
- Patrick M. Cronin and Ryan Neuhard, “Total Competition: The China Challenge in the South China Sea,” Center for a New American Security, January 9, 2020
- Ann Lee, “The Real Target of the US Assassination of the Iranian Military Leader Qassem Soleimani-China,” South China Morning Post, January 8, 2020
- Heritage Pride Productions' “Elf: The Musical,” January 23, 24, and 25th
- “The Future of Progressive Foreign Policy: 2020 and Beyond,” Cato Policy Forum, January 28, 2020
The Net Assessment crew is back and this week they are breaking down an article written by Brian Stewart in Quillette titled, "Tensions in NATO and the Looming End of Pax Americana." Is NATO worth American attention and money? Why don't the Europeans just get their act together? The crew discusses what threat NATO is designed to counter and whether it should forget about Russia and focus on terrorism. Also, Bryan has a grievance with attorney general Bill Barr, Melanie takes issue with the Danish Atlantic Council, and Chris gives an attaboy to the students at the University of California, Washington Center. Join Melanie, Chris, and Bryan as they dive once more into the breach.
Links
- Brian Stewart, "Tensions in NATO and the Looming End of Pax Americana," Quillette, December 5, 2019
- Bret Stephens, "NATO is Full of Freeloaders. But It's How We Defend the Free World," New York Times, December 5, 2019
- "Emmanuel Macron in His Own Words," Economist, November 7, 2019
- Katie Benner, "Barr and Durham Publicly, Disagree with Horowitz Report on Russian Inquiry," New York Times, December 12, 2019
- Ben Werner, "CNO Gilday Releases New, Simplified Command Guidance to Fleet," USNI News, December 4, 2019
- Christopher Preble, "Cops of the World No More," CATO, January 30, 2015
- Craig Whitlock, “At War with the Truth,” Washington Post, December 9, 2019
- James Laporta, "Afghan War Report Enrages Veterans and Gold Star Families: Even as More of Us Died, They Lied," Newsweek, December 9, 2019
- Jonah Schepp, "A NATO Summit to End All NATO Summits," New York Magazine, December 5, 2019
- Mariel Padilla, "NATO Conference is Canceled after US Ambassador Barred a Trump Critic," New York Times, December 8, 2019
- "The Day Will Come," Netflix
- Orlando Parfitt, "The Day Will Come' Claims Top Prize at Denmark's Robert Awards," Screen Daily, February 6, 2017
Chris, Bryan, and Melanie talk about the Interim Report issued by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence last week. What kinds of expectations should we have about AI being used for national security purposes? What kind of investments should be made in this technology, and where will the money come from? What about concerns that AI developed by American companies or the United States government might be used by authoritarian regimes to violate their citizens' human rights? Can we continue to reap the benefits of research collaboration with people from other countries, particularly China, and still protect national security secrets? Finally, Bryan tells us of his exploits in Italy, Chris gives a heartfelt appreciation to a friend and colleague, and Melanie looks forward to some long-awaited playtime with her nephews.
Links
- National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, Interim Report, November 2019
- Jacey Fortin, “Uber C.E.O. Backtracks After Comparing Khashoggi’s Killing to an Accident,” New York Times, November 11, 2019
- Andrew Bacevich, “The Berlin Wall Fell and the U.S. learned the Wrong Lessons. It Got Us Donald Trump,” Los Angeles Times, November 8, 2019
- Christopher Preble, John Glaser, and A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse, (Cato Institute, 2019)
- Robert Work and Eric Schmidt, "In Search of Ideas: The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence Wants You," War on the Rocks, July 18, 2019
- Ilanit Chernick, "Holocaust Survivors Reunite with Rescuer at Yad Vashem," November 3, 2019, Jerusalem Post
- "Holocaust Survivor Reunited with a Baby He Saved During World War II," BBC, November 8, 2019
- Gina Kolata, "Vast Dragnet Targets Theft of Biomedical Secrets for China," New York Times, November 4, 2019
- Melanie Marlow, Tweets, November 11, 2019
- “Puffs,” Heritage Pride Productions, November 14-15-16, and 21-22-23
Melanie, Chris, and guest host Claude Berube discuss the promise and pitfalls of exit strategies. When policymakers plan to embark on foreign wars, should they also prepare a plan for extricating the nation from these wars when they are completed? Is an exit strategy a vital component of strategy? Or do exit strategies create unreasonable expectations of easy victory? Can an exit strategy focus attention on a desired end state, and prevent mission creep? Or are prudent adjustments only possible when policymakers are not shackled to pre-war objectives? Chris congratulates New England Patriots’ coach Bill Bellichick on victory number 300, Melanie blasts Sean Duffy for questioning a decorated U.S. Army officer’s patriotism, and Claude delivers a Net Assessment first -- a heartfelt attadog for his beloved four-legged companion, Reagan.
Links
- David Kampf, "When Are Exit Strategies Viable?" War on the Rocks, October 14, 2019
- Adam Wunische, "The Lost Art of Exiting a War," War on the Rocks, October 21, 2019
- Devon Clements, "Bill Belichick Becomes 3rd NFL Head Coach Ever to Accumulate 300 Career Wins," Sports Illustrated, October 27, 2019
- Christopher Preble, “New Rules for U.S. Military Intervention,” War on the Rocks, September 20, 2016
- Richard Fontaine, “The Nonintervention Delusion: What War Is Good For,” Foreign Affairs, November-December 2019
- Spencer Ackerman, “Baghdadi Is Dead. The War on Terror Will Create Another,” Daily Beast, October 28, 2019
- Doug Bandow and Christopher Preble, “Lost in the Furor Over Syria: Alliances Are a Means, Not an End,” War on the Rocks, October 23, 2019
- Ashley Feinberg, "This Sure Looks Like Mitt Romney's Secret Twitter Account," Slate, October 20, 2019
- "Sean Duffy on CNN," CNN, October 29, 2019
- Aaron Stein, "US Officials Ignored Trump on Syria and We are All Paying the Price," War on the Rocks, October 22, 2019
- "The Weinberger Doctrine," Washington Post, November 30, 1984
- Jason Whiteley, "No Exit, No Problem," Small Wars Journal, April 21, 2011
- James Nolt, "Exit Strategy," World Policy," World Policy, February 23, 2017
Join Chris, Melanie, and Bryan as they dive into Professor Philip Zelikow’s recent article in the Texas National Security Review titled, “To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Problem Solving.” Has policymaking gotten worse, or is it a problem with implementation? Or is implementation part of the policymaking process? The gang also discusses whether there is a lack of professionalism in the education and training of future policymakers. This week's episode is a little wonky, but well worth the time.
At the end of the show, Bryan gives an attaboy for the first person to complete a marathon in under two hours, while Chris gives a shout out to his wife.
Links
- Philip Zelikow, "To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Public Problem-Solving," Texas National Security Review, September 2019
- John Glaser, Christopher Preble, A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover) (Cato Institute, 2019)
- Justin Logan, “Cult of the Irrelevant: National Security Eggheads & Academics,” American Conservative, June 12, 2019
- Danielle Pletka, Tweet, October 13, 2019
- Justin Logan, Tweet, October 13, 2019
- Danielle Pletka, Tweet, October 13, 2019
- Krista Preble, LinkedIn
- Alex Horton, "A Latina Novelist Spoke About White Privilege. Students Burned Her Book in Response," Washington Post, October 11, 2019
- Tim Hains, "Beto O'Rourke: Churches That Oppose Same-Sex Marriage Should Lose Tax-Exempt Status," Real Clear Politics, October 11, 2019
- Ryan Prior, "Farmers in Idaho Rallied to Harvest a Neighbor's Potatoes as a Deep Freeze Threatened to Ruin Them," CNN, October 11, 2019
- Tariq Tahir, "Nobel Peace Prize 2019 – Greta Thunberg Snubbed as Award Given to Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed for Ending 20 Year Eritrea Conflict," Sun, October 11, 2019
- Chris Stein, "Nobel Snub No Obstacle in Great Thunberg's Climate Quest," Yahoo News, October 11, 2019
- Andrew Keh, "Eliud Kipchoge Breaks Two-Hour Marathon Barrier," New York Times, October 12, 2019
- The Bulwark Podcast, "Bryan McGrath on Trump and American Exceptionalism," October 14, 2019
Bryan is celebrating the anniversary of our first episode on a beach, so this week, Chris and Melanie are joined by Tom Karako of CSIS. In this episode they discuss the Syria Study Group Report, which concludes that "the US can still influence the outcome of the Syrian war in a manner that protects US interests." Does America have interests in Syria? If so, can they be managed and protected, particularly with a president who seems uninterested in investing political capital and American resources there? How has the Syrian civil war affected Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and does that matter to America? Finally, is there anything the United States should do about the terrible humanitarian situation, the effects of which have spilled over to other countries?
Tom tells us about taking his son to his first baseball game (go Nats!), Chris has a birthday wish for a former president, and Melanie both sticks it to and congratulates the press. We can't wait for Bryan to return and give us his review of the Downton Abbey movie!
Links
- "Syria Study Group Final Report," United States Institute of Peace, September 24, 2019
- Josh Blackman, "When Is It Acceptable Journalistic Practice to Surface Old Social Media Posts?" Reason, September 27, 2019
- Vance Serchuk, "Russia's Middle East Power Play," National Review, September 12, 2019
- Michael Singh, Tweet, September 23, 2019
- Trevor Thrall, “Resettling Syria’s Refugees Would Be Cheaper Than Widening the War,” Defense One, October 21, 2015
- Alex Nowrasteh, “Terrorists by Immigration Status and Nationality: A Risk Analysis, 1975 – 2017,” Cato, May 7, 2019
- Kareem Fahim, “In ‘60 Minutes’ Interview, Saudi Crown Prince Denies Ordering Khashoggi Killing,” Washington Post, September 29, 2019
- Anna Massoglia, “Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Multi-Million Foreign Influence Operation After Khashoggi’s Death,” Open Secrets, October 2, 2019
- Elizabeth Wolfe and Brian Ries, “Jimmy Carter, the Oldest Living Former US President, Is 95 Today,” CNN, October 1, 2019
- Reis Thebault and Brittany Shammas, "Amber Guyger, Police Officer Who Shot a Man to Death in His Apartment, Found Guilty of Murder," Washington Post, October 1, 2019
- Josh Blackman, "When is It Acceptable Journalistic Practice to 'Surface' Old Social Media Posts?" Reason, September 27, 2019
- Jack Detsch, "Congress Aims to Restore Syria Stabilization Aid," Al-Monitor, September 18, 2019
- Brett McGurk, "Hard Truths in Syria," Foreign Affairs, May 28, 2019
- Eric Schmitt, "US Sees Rising Threat in the West from Qaeda Branch in Syria," New York Times, September 30, 2019
- Brittany Shamas, "When Trump's Special Envoy to Ukraine Resigned, a Student Newspaper Beat Everyone to the Story," Washington Post, September 28, 2019
- "Timeline: Syria's Eight Years of Fire and Blood," Reuters, March 16, 2019
- Keith Pandolfi, "How to Refinish Woodwork," This Old House
- "Hypersonic," Merriam-Webster
Events
- "NATO: The Dangerous Dinosaur," Cato Book Forum, October 18, 2019
- "Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover)," Cato Book Forum, October 21, 2019
What have we learned in the 18 years since 9/11? Chris, Melanie, and Bryan discuss whether counterterrorism policy takes account of academic research on the subject. Going forward, the goal should be to implement the most cost-effective policies — and over time, to calm public anxiety about terrorism. Bryan gives a shout out to a bipartisan duo of Net Assessment fans, Chris gripes about NFL officiating, and Melanie offers her appreciation of the Constitution via an unlikely source: former Vice President Joe Biden.
Links
- Khusrav Gaibulloev and Todd Sandler, "Six Things We've Learned About Terrorism Since 9/11," Washington Post, September 11, 2019
- Khusrav Gaibulloev and Todd Sandler, "What We Have Learned about Terrorism since 9/11," Journal of Economic Literature, June, 2019
- John Mueller and Mark Stewart, Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security, (Oxford, 2011)
- John Mueller and Mark Stewart, Are We Safe Enough? Measuring and Assessing Aviation Security, (Elsevier, 2018)
- Trevor Thrall and Erik Goepner, "Step Back: Lessons for U.S. Foreign Policy from the Failed War on Terror," Cato, June 26, 2017
- Scott Simon, "Edward Snowden Tells NPR: The Executive Branch Sort of Hacked the Constitution," NPR, September 12, 2019
- Tom Schad, "As New Season Begins, NFL Coaches Still Trying to Sort Out Pass Interference Rule Changes," USA Today, September 5, 2019
- Christopher Preble, “Covert Wars, to What End?" War on the Rocks, August 7, 2019
- Austin Carson, "Recipient of the Georgetown University Lepgold Prize," Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago, September 4, 2019
- Ari Cohn, Tweet, September 12, 2019
- International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association, Tweet, August 19, 2019
Join Chris, Melanie, and Bryan as they assess Jim Mattis' legacy as secretary of defense and the media splash he is making while promoting his new book. Mattis is a complicated character, and his reasons for entering the administration, for leaving the administration, and for coyly restraining his comments after leaving are similarly complicated. Although President Donald Trump's early affinity for having former generals in key positions in his administration has cooled, the debate over the role retired flag and general officers should play in America's national security political discourse rages on.
Links
- Jim Mattis, "Duty, Democracy and the Threat of Tribalism," Wall Street Journal, August 28, 2019
- Jeffrey Goldberg, "The Man Who Couldn't Take It Anymore," Atlantic, October 2019 Issue
- Dan Lamothe and Greg Jaffe, "Emerging from His Silence, Mattis Faces Criticism for Trying to Take the 'Middle Road' on Trump," Washington Post, August 29, 2019
- Jim Mattis and Bing West, Call Sing Chaos: Learning to Lead, (Random House, September 2019)
- Jim Mattis, "Letter from Secretary James Mattis," Defense, December 20, 2019
- Mallory Hughes, "When a Boy with Autism was Overwhelmed on the First Day of School, Another Little Boy Held His Hand," CNN, August 27, 2019
- Tyler Jost and Joshua D. Kertzer, “Armies and Influence: Public Deference to Foreign Policy Elites,” American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, 2019,
- Hannah Natanson, “A Broken Bingo Machine Left Rhis D.C. Veterans’ Retirement Home Mourning. A 16-year-old girl decided to help” Washington Post, September 2, 2019
- Stephen Wertheim, “The Quincy Institute Opposes America’s Endless Wars. Why Should that Be a Scandal?” Washington Post, August 30, 2018
- The Human Costs of War: Assessing Civilian Casualties since 9/11, Policy Forum, Cato Institute, September 11, 2019
- Ted Galen Carpenter, NATO: The Dangerous Dinosaur, Cato Institute, October 18, 2019
This week the gang talks about President Trump’s trade policies and why trade wars can be bad and hard to win. Do we have a strategy for success, or is the president simply venting frustration through erratic policies? What is the endgame? How do America's economic policies, especially with regard to China, affect U.S. national security? Other highlights: Chris condemns Trump’s attempt to buy Greenland, Melanie finds a CEO worthy of immense respect, and Bryan explains why real British royalty isn’t as appealing as the Netflix version.
Links
- Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin, "Trump's Assault on the Global Trading System: And Why Decoupling from China Will Change Everything," Foreign Affairs, September 2019
- Chad P. Bown and Melina Kolb, "Trump's Trade War Timeline: An Up-to-Date Guide," Peterson Institute for International Economics, August 13, 2019
- Madeleine Kearns, "Royals, Climate Change, and Private Jets," National Review, August 19, 2019
- Scott Lincicome, CATO Institute
- Simon Lester and Huan Zhu, "Closing Pandora's Box: The Growing Abuse of the National Security Rationale for Restricting Trade," CATO Institute, June 25, 2019
- "Clashing over Commerce: A History of U.S. Trade Policy," Cato Institute, January 24, 2018
- Pierre Lemieux, “Peter Navarro’s Conversion,” Regulation, Fall 2018
- John Harwood, “Americans Overwhelmingly Support Free Trade as Concern Grows About Trump’s Economy: NBC/WSJ Poll,” CNBC, August 19, 2019
- Scott Lincicome, "The ‘Protectionist Moment’ That Wasn’t: American Views on Trade and Globalization," Cato Institute, November 2, 2018
- "Former Danish PM Lied About Iraq War Plans," Local, July 3, 2015
- Tim Marcin, “Denmark to Trump: Seriously, Greenland Isn't for Sale,” Vice News, August 19, 2019
- Maggie Fitzgerald, “Here’s What New Tariffs Will Cost the Average American Household,” CNBC, August 19, 2019
- “Exploring the Militarization of US Foreign Policy,” American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, August 31, 2019
- “The Human Costs of War: Assessing Civilian Casualties since 9/11,” Cato Institute, September 11, 2019
Special guest Rick Berger joins Bryan and Chris for a discussion of the U.S. war in Afghanistan and the state of civil-military relations. The post-9/11 mission expanded from counterterrorism to nation-building, but this occurred, according to CSIS’s Mark Cancian, without a serious "discussion about the relationship between the desired end state and the military effort required to reach it." Bryan, Rick, and Chris disagree on whether that’s actually true — and whether it matters. Bryan gives kudos to National Review’s Kevin Williamson for making the case for independent thinking, Chris knocks CNN and the Democratic debaters for spending too little time on foreign policy, and Rick praises newly installed Secretary of Defense Mark Esper for his plan to beef up conventional deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.
Links
- Mark F. Cancian, "Tell Me How This Ends: Military Advice, Strategic Goals, and the "Forever War" in Afghanistan," CSIS, July 10, 2019
- Caroline Dorminey and Eric Gomez, "America's Nuclear Crossroads: A Forward-Looking Anthology," CATO Institute
- Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Julian E. Barnes, "S. Military Calls ISIS in Afghanistan a Threat to the West. Intelligence Officials Disagree," New York Times, August 2, 2019
- Felix Tam and Anne Marie Roantree, "Trump Says It's Up to China to Deal with Hong Kong Riots," Reuters, August 2, 2019
- "Interview with Kevin Williamson," C-Span, July 19, 2019
- Max Boot, "The Case for American Empire," The Weekly Standard, October 15, 2001
- Justin Logan and Christopher Preble, “Fatal Conceit,” National Review, August 12, 2010
- Fred Kaplan, “Five Minutes to Explain the World,” Slate, August 1, 2019
- Congressional Budget Office, "Funding for Overseas Contingency Operations and its Impact on Defense Spending," October 2018
- Rick Berger, "Why Withdrawing from Syria and Afghanistan Won’t Save Much Money," Defense One, February 26, 2019
Join Melanie, Chris, and Bryan as they discuss the recently released Commandant's Planning Guidance, a document from the new Marine Corps Commandant General David Berger that has taken the seapower community by storm. In the guidance, Berger slays at least five USMC sacred cows and provides a framework for integration between the Navy and the Marine Corps within the Department of the Navy. Also, Chris has an issue with presidential tweeting and Bryan complains about the weather.
Links
- "Commandant of the Marine Corps Planning Guidance: 38th Commandant of the Marine Corps," Headquarters Marine Corps
- Taylor Dinerman, "Why Apollo 11 Matters," National Review, July 20, 2019
- Michelle Basch, "Apollo 11 Tribute Features Stunning Projections Onto Washington Monument," WTOP, July 20, 2019
- Elizabeth Janney, "Heat Advisory Issues for Maryland," Patch, June, 30, 2018
- Robin Emmott, "Britain Wins Early European Support for Hormuz Naval Mission," Reuters, July 23, 2019
- Chris Spargo, "Predatory Lender," Daily Mail, July 22, 2019
- Kevin D. Williamson, "Trump’s Omar Comments Erode Our Sense of Citizenship," Yahoo, July 21, 2019
- Joe Sestak, “We're to Blame for Escalating Tensions With Iran,” Des Moines Register, July 20, 2019
- Daniel Larison, “Sestak’s Sensible Warning against War with Iran,” American Conservative, July 22, 2019
- Donald Trump, Tweets, July 14, 2019
Bryan, Chris, and Melanie take on a new report by Chris Dougherty that argues that, unless America changes how it fights wars to more closely align with the priorities laid out in the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS), it is in real danger of losing the next war to China or Russia. Has the thinking in the NDS become conventional wisdom? Is Dougherty's assessment overly pessimistic? Is there sufficient political will to follow through with expensive, long-term changes? Are American military planners up to the intellectual challenge? Finally, Bryan gives us the rundown on his much-anticipated staycation, Chris has some love for the U.S Women's Soccer Team, and Melanie hopes we can do a better job learning our history.
Links:
- Christopher M. Dougherty, "Why America Needs a New Way of War," CNAS, June 2019
- Ellen Barry, "In Leak, U.K. Ambassador to U.S. Calls Trump Administration Inept and Clumsy," New York Times, July 07, 2019
- Kate Sullivan, Zachary Cohen, and Jamie Crawford, "Admiral Set to Become Navy's Top Officer Retires Over Inappropriate Professional Relationship," CNN, July 07, 2019
- Mike Gallagher, "Sate of Deterrence by Denial," Washington Quarterly, 2019
- Bari Weiss, "San Francisco Will Spend $600,000 to Erase History," New York Times, June 28, 2019
- Sarah Mervosh, "Principal Who Tried to Stay 'Politically Neutral' about Holocaust is Removed," New York Times, July 8, 2019
- David Stout, “Janne E. Nolan, Principled Adviser on World Affairs, Is Dead at 67,” New York Times, July 8, 2019
- Francis J. Gavin, “Remembering Janne,” War on the Rocks, July 2, 2019
- Justin Amash, “Our Politics is in a Partisan Death Spiral. That’s Why I’m Leaving the GOP,” Washington Post, July 4, 2019
Melanie, Bryan, and Chris discuss the Trump administration’s recent struggles to explain its policy toward Iran. What does President Donald Trump hope to achieve? What evidence is there that the policy of “maximum pressure” will succeed? Does the administration have the authority to launch military attacks against Iran, either under the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) or under Article II of the Constitution? Or must they go to Congress for a new AUMF? And to what extent do various personnel decisions explain the frequent misalignment between Trump’s stated objectives and the actual results? This episode also includes praise for a belated effort to reclaim Congress’s war powers, while Harvard earns scorn for its counterproductive ploy to advance gender equality. There’s criticism, too, for short-sighted opponents of another round of military base closures.
Links
- "Oversight of the Trump Administration's Iran Policy," S. House of Representative Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 19, 2019
- Bret Stephens, "The Pirates of Tehran: If Iran Won't Change Its Behavior, We Should Sink Its Navy," New York Times, June 14, 2019
- Andrew J. Bacevich, “Bret Stephens, Warmonger,” The American Conservative, June 18, 2019
- Michael Bender and Gordon Lubold, "Trump Bucked National-Security Aides on Proposed Iran Attack," Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2019
- “Dubious Legal Authority in the Push for War with Iran,” Cato Daily Podcast, June 20, 2019
- “I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration,” New York Times, September 5, 2018
- Tom Vanden Brook and Kevin Johnson, "Shanahan Did Not Disclose Domestic Fight Before His 2017 Confirmation As Deputy Defense Secretary," USA Today, June 22, 2019
- Jonathan Swam, Juliet Bartz, Alayna Treene, Orion Rummler, "Exclusive: Leaked Trump Vetting Docs," Axios, June 23, 2019
- Nahal Toosi, “Trump Envoy Not Ruling Out Using Afghan War Law to Justify Iranian Strikes,” Politico, June 19, 2019
- “House Votes to Repeal Authorization for the Use of Military Force,” The Week, June 19, 2019
- Joe Gould, “US Senate Votes to Kill Saudi Arms Sales, Defying Trump Veto Threat,” Defense News, June 20, 2019
- Harry Lewis, “Harvard’s Infantilizing Private Club Policy is Part of a Bigger Agenda,” Washington Post, June 24, 2019
- “Treasury Targets Key Al-Qa’ida Funding and Support Network Using Iran as a Critical Transit Point,” US Department of the Treasury, July 28, 2011
- Jeff Schogol, “The Pentagon Says Iran Killed More US Troops in Iraq than Previously Known,” Task and Purpose, April 4, 2019
- George Will, The Conservative Sensibility, (Hachette Books, 2019)
- Peter Wehner, The Death of Politics: How to Heal Our Frayed Republic After Trump, (HarperOne, 2019)
- Kingston Reif, Tweets, June 22, 2019
- Chase Madar, Tweets, June 22, 2019
- Sustainable Defense Task Force, Center for International Policy
- The John Hay Initiative
- Center for International Policy’s Sustainable Defense Task Force
- The Navy Yard in Philadelphia
- "The Tunnel," PBS
- "Black Mirror," Netflix
- Quillette
Is the Trump administration pursuing a realist foreign policy? In a recent speech, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicates that it is, while Brett McGurk, in his article in Foreign Affairs, disagrees. Listen in to hear what Melanie, Chris, and Bryan think, as well as to hear Chris' views on Canadian sportsmanship.
Links
- Brett McGurk, "American Foreign Policy Adrift: Pompeo Is Calling for Realism-Trump Isn’t Delivering," Foreign Affairs, June 05, 2019
- Khadrice Rollins, "Cheering for Injuries Didn't Start in Toronto, But That's Where It Should End," Sports Illustrated, June 11, 2019
- William Smith, "Mike Pompeo: American Jacobin," American, May 28, 2019
- Heather Hurlburt, "More Diplomacy, Less Intervention, but for What? Making Sense of the Grand Strategy Debate," Lawfare, June 07, 2019
- Rick Atkinson, The British Are Coming: The War for America, Lexington to Princeton, 1775-1777, (Henry Holt and Co, 2019)
- George Will, The Conservative Sensibility, (Hachette Books, 2019)
- Jennifer McDermott and Michelle R. Smith, "Naval War College Heads Reassigned Pending Investigation," Navy Times, June 11, 2019
- Austin Ramzy "Hong Kong Leader, Carrie Lam, Says She Won't Back Down on Extradition Bill," New York Times, June 10, 2019
- Michael R. Pompeo, "Remarks at the Claremont Institute 40th Anniversary Gala: A Foreign Policy From the Founding," S. Department of State, May 11, 2019
- Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman, "Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran," New York Times, May 27, 2019
- David A. Graham, "Trump Sides with North Korea against the CIA," Atlantic, June 10, 2019
- Eliana Johnson, "Pompeo and Bolton Tensions Escalate as Iran Debate Intensifies," Politico, May 17, 2019
- Robert Costa, "'I Think You Mean That, Too: Trump's Aides Struggle to Defend, Explain His Foreign Policy Statements," Washington Post, March 6, 2019
- Chris Dougherty, "Why America Needs a New Way of War," Center for a New American Century, June 12, 2019
- Mike Benitez, "F-15X: The Strategic Blind Spot in the Air Force's Fighter Debate," War on the Rocks, June 3, 2019,
- Alexander Hamilton, "Federalist No. 70"
Chris is on a big adventure, so Bryan and Melanie are left alone to discuss hypersonic weapons and the challenges and opportunities they present for America's national security. Do they represent a "game-changer" for defense planners, or simply an incremental shift in technology? Will developing hypersonic weapons increase the likelihood of war? While the United States is beginning to invest in the offensive side of these weapons, is it doing enough to defend against a Chinese or Russian threat? Finally, Bryan gives his expert opinion on the series finale of Game of Thrones and Melanie shows some love for a public interest law firm working to help military families.
Links
- Jyri Raitasalo, "Hypersonic Weapons Are No Game-Changer," National Interest, January 5, 2019
- Heather Venable and Clarence Abercrombie, "Muting the Hype Over Hypersonics: The Offense-Defense Balance in Historical Perspective," War on the Rocks, May 28, 2019
- John Dolan, Richard Gallagher, and David Mann, "Hypersonic Weapons – A Threat to National Security," Real Clear Defense, April 23, 2019
- Mary Kate Aylward, "Hypersonic Weapons: Revolutionary or Just New?" Army, August 15, 2018
- Andrew Siddons, "McConnell Introduces Bill Making the legal Smoking Age 21," Roll Call, May 20, 2019
- Ed Kilgore, "Military Brass Warn Trump Against Memorial Day Pardons for War Criminals," New York Magazine, May 22, 2019
- Palko Karasz, "Iran Slams U.S. After Middle East Troop Buildup Is Announced," New York Time, May 25, 2019
- Rónán Duffy, "Theresa May on the Brink As Andrea Leadsom Resigns from Government," The Journal, May 22, 2019
- Alexander Smith, "European Parliament Elections: 5 Takeaways from the Results," NBC News, May 27, 2019
- Audra D.S. Burch, David Gelles, and Emily S. Rueb, "Morehouse College Graduates' Student Loans to be Paid Off by Billionaire," New York Time, May 19, 2019
- Institute for Justice
- Dan Mihalopoulos, Tweets, May 23, 2019
- AP West Region, Tweets, May 27, 2019
Donald Trump won the Republican nomination in 2016 and then beat Hillary Clinton in the general election, in part, by pledging to focus on America’s domestic problems, including raising worker wages, solving the problem of unemployment and underemployment, and repairing the nation’s failing infrastructure. But he was hardly alone in taking this stance. The last four U.S. presidents were elected on promises to fight fewer foreign wars. Recent surveys show why such appeals are successful: The American people want to do more nation-building at home — and less of it abroad. Chris, Bryan, and guest co-host Rachel Hoff unpack the latest survey of U.S. public attitudes on foreign policy. Does Americans’ desire for a different form of global engagement, one that is less dependent upon U.S. military power, reflect a failure on the part of America’s foreign policy elite to explain the continued value of U.S. primacy? Or should those elites do more listening and less lecturing? Related, in the grievances portion of the podcast, Bryan and Chris disagree over whether war weariness is a sign of a mature foreign policy debate or rather evidence of Americans’ collective adolescence. Rachel offers attaboys to Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Mike Gallagher, Bryan praises Larry Kudlow, and Chris gives kudos to Sen. Chris Murphy.
Links
- John Halpin, Brian Katulis, Peter Juul, Karl Agne, Jim Gerstein, and Nisha Jain, "America Adrift: How the U.S. Foreign Policy Debate Misses What Voters Really Want," Center for American Progress, May 05, 2019
- David V. Gioe, "Make America Strategic Again," National Interest, April 17, 2019
- Kyle Rempfer, "H.R. McMaster Says the Public is Fed A 'War-Weariness' Narrative That Hurts U.S. Strategy," Military Times, May 09, 2019
- Sam Brodey, "White House Top Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow Undercuts Trump on Tariffs," Daily Beast, May 12, 2019
- Chris Murphy, Twitter, May 13, 2019
- Emma Ashford, Twitter, May 10, 2019
- Loren DeJonge Shulman, Twitter, May 10, 2019
- John Glaser, Christopher A. Preble, and A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America's Broken Foreign Policy Even Worse (and How We Can Recover) (Cato Institute, Forthcoming 2019)
- "2018 National Defense Survey," Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, November 2018
- 2019 Nominees, The Cappies of the National Capital Area
Join Melanie, Chris, and Bryan as they dive into Christian Brose's Foreign Affairs piece on the revolution in military affairs and Brose's view that not only are we unprepared for future war, but that we are investing in capabilities that are particularly vulnerable to technologies our adversaries are fielding. You'll come for the chat, but you'll stay for the Game of Thrones references and a discussion of Melanie's packing habits.
Links
- Christian Brose, "The New Revolution in Military Affairs," Foreign Affairs, May/June 2018 Issue
- Jill Aitoro, "DARPA's Director on How the Pentagon Can Transition Innovation," C4ISRNET, April 7, 2019
- Donald J. Trump, "Executive Order on Maintaining American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence," White House, February 11, 2019
- Brian Pascus, "Illinois Governor has 'No Concerns at all' about Reported Federal Criminal Probe," CBS News, April 24, 2019
- Michael S. Schmit, "As McGahn Emerges as Chief Witness in the Mueller Report, Trump and Allies Ramp up Attacks," New York Times, April 22, 2019
- Christopher A. Preble, Peace, War, and Liberty: Understanding U.S. Foreign Policy,(Libertarianism, 2019)
- T.X. Hammes, "Technologies Converge and Power Diffuses: The Evolution of Small, Smart, and Cheap Weapons," CATO Institute, January 26, 2016
- Major Rick Crocker Memorial Fund Award, GWU NROTC
- Sebastian Rotella, Tim Golden, Shane Dixon Kavanaugh, "Saudi Fugitives Accused of Serious Crimes Get Help to Flee While U.S. Officials Look the Other Way," ProPublica and Oregonian, April 26, 2019
- Neil A. Lewis, "Richard Lugar, G.OP. Senator and Foreign Policy Force, Dies at 87," New York Times, April 28, 2019
- Ben Sasse, "The end of the End of History: Reimagining U.S. Foreign Policy for the 21st Century," TNSR, April 24, 2019
- “Cyber Warfare, Coercion and Restraint,” Cato Policy Forum, May 9, 2019
- Mamma Mia, Pride Productions, Heritage High School
- Arya Stark, Game of Thrones
Chris is on a beach somewhere soaking up the rays, so this week George Mason's Trevor Thrall joins the podcast. The gang discusses NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg's address to Congress on the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Washington Treaty. What is NATO's mission 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union? What does the addition of member states mean for the Alliance and for American national security? What effect has President Trump's rhetoric regarding the responsibilities of other members and the possibility of the United States leaving the Organization had? Finally, Trevor warms Melanie's heart with puppy stories and Bryan rejoices in UVA's national title and the return of Game of Thrones.
Links
- General Jens Stoltenberg, "NATO: Good for Europe and Good for America," NATO, April 04, 2019
- "Deciphering the Navy's 2020 Budget Request and Shipbuilding Plan," Heritage Foundation, April 15, 2019
- Michael Burke, "Buttigieg Slams Electoral College for Overruling Popular Vote 'Twice in My Lifetime," Hill, April 14, 2019
- Craig Timberg and Drew Harwell "A Computerized YouTube Fact-Checking Tool Goes Very Wrong: In Flaming Notre Dame, It Somehow Sees Sept. 11 Tragedy," Washington Post, April 15, 2019
- Michael Weiss, "Julian Assange Got What He Deserved," Atlantic, April 12, 2019
- Eugene Scott, "Bernie Sanders is Now a Millionaire. Can He Still Speak for Working=Class Americans?" Washington Post, April 15, 2019
- Declan Walsh and Joseph Goldstein, "Amid Euphoria in Sudan, a Delicate Dance Over Who Will Lead: Soldiers or Civilian," New York Times, April 16, 2019
- Robby Soave, "Concordia University Disinvites Harvard Professor Harvey Mansfield Over His Conservative Gender Views," Reason, April 16, 2019
In addition to “being the taxpayers’ greatest investment,” Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi writes that the Pentagon is also “the world’s largest producer of wrong numbers, an ingenious bureaucratic defense system that hides all the other rats’ nests underneath.” Last year, the Department of Defense became the last Cabinet-level department to submit to a comprehensive review of its books — and it flunked the audit. But Defense Department “never expected to pass it,” explained then-Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan. Whether it ever will — or is even committed to doing so — is an open question. In this week's episode of Net Assessment, Bryan, Melanie, and Chris discuss Taibbi’s scathing feature, aptly titled “The Pentagon’s Bottomless Money Pit,” and unpack his suggestions for how to fix the problem. Bryan has no grievances — life is coming up roses now that his beloved Virginia Cavaliers have made it to men’s college basketball’s Final Four (Cavaliers’ head coach Tony Bennett, naturally, earns his attaboy). Chris faults those who want to keep expanding NATO, and Melanie credits the Southern Poverty Law Center for (belatedly) doing the right thing.
Links
- Matt Taibbi, “The Pentagon’s Bottomless Money Pit” Rolling Stone, March 17, 2019
- Frank Newport, “The Military's Positive Image and the Defense Budget,” Gallup, April 1, 2019
- Jack Nicholson as Colonel Nathan R. Jessup in the film A Few Good Men
- John Samples, The Fallacy of Campaign Finance Reform(University of Chicago, 2006)
- The Atlantic Council’s Damon MacWilson, Tweets, April 01, 2019
- Tony Bennett, Men's Basketball Coach at the University of Virginia
- “Deciphering the Navy’s 2020 Budget Request and Shipbuilding Plan,” Heritage Foundation, April 15, 2019
- “Two Roads to War: How (and Why) America and Britain Decided to Invade Iraq,” Book Forum, Cato Institute, April 24, 2019
- Pride Productions Presents “Mamma Mia” April 25-28, May 2-4
- David French, "The SPLC Fires Its Co-Founder, and Its Own Intolerance Is Exposed Again," National Review, March 15, 2019
- Lolita Baldor and Matthew Lee, "US Stop F-35 Fighter Jet Parts Delivery to Turkey," Defense News, April 02, 2019
- Jill Aitoro, "So We're Celebrating the Pentagon's Failed Audit?" Defense News, November 20, 2018
- "The Pentagon Doesn't Know Where Its Money Goes," New York Times, December 01, 2018
In this episode, Chris, Bryan, and Melanie take a broad look at the administration's FY2020 defense budget request. They discuss whether or not it is the "masterpiece" that Pat Shanahan promised, and agree (!) that the budget process is in need of serious reform. They ask whether it aligns with the National Defense Strategy, what Congress (especially the Democratic House with many domestic priorities) will think of it, and how it will be paid for in a time of ever-growing deficits. Finally, Chris takes the secretary of state to task, Melanie is irritated with what's going on in higher ed, and Bryan welcomes a friend home.
Links
- "Defense Budget Overview: United States Department of Defense Fiscal Years 2020 Budget Request"
- Marcus Weisgerber, "2020 Budget Request Reveals Slow Shift Toward Great Power War," Defense One, March 2019
- John McCormack, "Why Did Ben Sasse Vote to Uphold the National Emergency?" National Review, March 2019
- Claude Berube, United States Naval Acadamy
- "Overseas Contingency Operations Spending Would Be 2nd Largest Federal Agency," Taxpayers for Common Sense, March 2019
- Fred Kaplan, "Trump's Record-Setting Military Budget is Bloated, illegal, and Doomed," Slate, March 2019
- Daniel Larison, "Pompeo's Obnoxious Yemen Lies," American Conservative, March 2019
- Daniel Larison, "The WSJ's Despicable Defense of the War on Yemen," American Conservative, March 2019
- Bridget Bowman and Simone Pathé, "Meet the 12 GOP Senators Who Voted to Terminate Trump's National Emergency," Roll Call, March 2019
- "Clear and Present Safety: The World Has Never Been Better and Why That Matters to Americans," CATO Institute, March 2019
- "Two Roads to War: How (and Why) America and Britain Decided to Invade Iraq," CATO Institute, April 2019
- Patrick Porter, Blunder: Britain's War in Iraq, (Oxford University Press, 2019)
- Michael Mazarr, Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy, (Public Affairs, 2019)
- Nicholas Kristof, "This 8-Year-Old Chess Champion Will Make You Smile,"New York Times, March 2019
- Samuel Abrams, "When A Student Mob Came For My Job, My College Did Not Support Me," Spectator, March 2019
- Steven Elbow, "UW Student Alleging Bias in Political Science Prof's Syllabus Now Expects Class to Be Objective," Cap Times, January 2019
- Ben Leonard, "Admission Scandal Rocks Higher Education," Duke Chronical, March 2019
Join Melanie, Chris, and Bryan for a discussion of how to think about great power competition with China. Using Brookings scholar Tarun Chhabra's recent report "The China challenge, democracy, and US grand strategy" as the impetus for the conversation, our hosts dive into whether China's threat to liberal democracies is more of a challenge than that presented by the former Soviet Union, and if so, what America is willing to do to contest that challenge. Stay to the end to hear Melanie's inspired "Attagirl" for the senior senator from California.
Links
- Tarun Chhabra, “The China challenge, democracy, and U.S. grand strategy,” Brookings Institution, February 2019
- Seth Moulton, “Conversations on National Security and U.S. Naval Power: A Discussion with U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton,” Hudson Institute, February 27, 2019
- Michael Tackett, “Five Takeaways From Cohen’s Testimony to Congress,” New York Times, February 27, 2019
- Nina Siegal, “Rembrandt Died 350 Years Ago. Why He Matters,” New York Times, February 27, 2019
- Aaron Blake, “John Bolton Tried to Explain Away Trump's Otto Warmbier Comments and It Went Poorly,” Washington Post, March 4, 2019.
- Caitlin Flanagan, “Dianne Feinstein Doesn't Need a Do-Over,” Atlantic, February 24, 2019
- Matt Schiavenza, “Time to Kill Daylight Saving,” Atlantic, March 8, 2015
- Gabi Warwick, “Punxsutawney Phil wanted by Middletown Police for 'crimes against nature’,” ABC22Now, March 4, 2019
- Christian Britschgi, “ Rand Paul, Tom Udall Introduce Bill to End the War in Afghanistan,” Reason, March 5, 2019
- “End the Forever War,” Common Defense, March 5, 2019
What is the best way to preserve the liberal international order (such as it is) going forward? Some counsel conservatism. Jennifer Lind and William Wohlforth argue that “the United States and its partners should consolidate the gains the order has reaped,” back away from democracy promotion, and resist the urge to add new members to existing alliances, especially those countries that bring more liabilities than capabilities. Are they right? Must the United States practice more discernment (Bryan’s word) or restraint (Chris’s), or does the order still depend upon American military primacy? Would it collapse or atrophy if the United States were less likely to employ force in the service of certain desirable, but non-essential, ends? Or would democracy and human rights flourish if promoted chiefly by the power of America's example, and carried forward by non-governmental organizations, as opposed to entities of the U.S. government? Also, Chris remembers Rep. Walter Jones, Melanie praises California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and, in a first, Germany earns both a grievance and (minor) attaboy in the same show.
Links
- Jennifer Lind and William C. Wohlforth, "The Future of the Liberal Order Is Conservative: A Strategy to Save the System," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2019
- Tony Bizjak, Tim Sheehan, and Rory Appleton, "No, Gov. Gavin Newsom Didn't Kill High-Speed Rail. But What's His Plan B?," Sacramento Bee, February 18, 2019
- Adam Brinklow, "San Francisco Delay Mission Housing over Potentially Historic Laundromat," Curbed SF, February 14, 2019
- Christian Britschgi, "New Kamala Harris Bill Asks Federal Taxpayers to Subsidize California's High Housing Costs," Reason, July 20, 2018
- Peter Moore, "Most Americans Still Back the US's Defense Commitment to Other Members of NATO, Though Doubts Creep in When Asked About Specific Countries,"YouGov, April 01, 2014
- Stephen Calabria, "Americans Conflicted About Which NATO Countires They'd Defend From Russia: Poll," Huffington Post, April 01, 2014
- Kathryn Krawczyk, "Mick Mulvaney Says, 'Nobody Cares' About the Deficit. He Used To. A Lot," Week, February 06, 2019
- Jonathan Chait, "Mulvaney: Trump Not Mentioning Debt Because 'Nobody Cares'," New York Magazine, February 06, 2019
- “Mullen: Debt Is Top National Security Threat,”CNN, August 27, 2010,
- Felicia Sonmez, "Walter Jones, 'Freedom Fries' Congressman Who Became Iraq War Critic, Dies at 76," Washington Post, February 10, 2019
- David Gelles, "They're Rich and They're Mad About Taxes (Too Low!)," New York Times, February 12, 2019
- Patricia Cohen, "In Amazon Fight, Progressives Showed What They Want: A New Economic Agenda," New York Times, February 16, 2019
- Katrin Bennhold and Steven Erlanger "Merkel Rejects That US Demands That Europe Pull Out of the Iran Nuclear Deal," New York Times, February 16, 2019
The crew looks at the crisis in Venezuela and considers the American and world responses to it. Is it any of Washington’s business what goes on there, and will any result have democratic legitimacy? Will more sanctions help to quickly resolve the situation in a way that benefits the people there, or will they increase the suffering? Are Elliot Abrams and John Bolton making a push for military intervention? Finally, Chris congratulates the Patriots while Melanie and Bryan roll their eyes, and Melanie finds a reason to wholeheartedly praise the Trump administration.
Links
- David A. Graham, "How Seriously Should the World Take Trump's Venezuela Threat?", Atlantic, January 29, 2019
- Kirk Brown, "GOP Should Back Trump If Emergency Declared To Build Border Wall," State, February 04, 2019
- Peter Baker and Edward Wong, "On Venezuela, Rubio Assumes U.S. Role of Ouster in Chief," New York Times, January 26, 2019
- Ernesto Londoño and Nicholas Casey,“Trump Administration Discussed Coup Plans With Rebel Venezuelan Officers,” New York Times,September 08, 2018
- John Glaser, Tweets, January 24, 2019
- Peter Baker and Edward Wong, “Intervening Against Venezuela’s Strongman, Trump Belies ‘America First’,” New York Times, September 24, 2019
- Ro Khanna, “Why I strongly oppose U.S. military intervention in Venezuela,” Washington Post, January 30, 2019
- John Stuart Mill, “A Few Words on Non-Intervention: Excerpts,” Libertarianism
- “End the War in Afghanistan,” New York Times, February 03, 2019
- Patricia Zengerle, "Senate Leader Wants U.S. Troops To Stay in Syria," Reuters, January 29, 2019
- Peter Baker, "A Growing Chorus of Republican Critics for Trump's Foreign Policy," New York Times, January 29, 2019
- Moises Naim and Francisco Toro, "Venezuela's Suicide: Lessons from a Failed State," Foreign Affairs, January 28, 2019
- Krishnadev Calamur, "Trump's Dumping of Maduro Could be Just the Start," Atlantic, January 24, 2019
- Uri Friedman, "The White House's Move on Venezuela is the Least Trumpian Thing It's Done," Atlantic, January 26, 2019
- Donovan Slack, "USA Today Investigation: VA Knowingly Hires Doctors with Past Malpractice Claims, Discipline for Poor Care," USA Today, December 3, 2019
- Anne Gearan, Paul Sonne, and Carol Morello, "US to Withdraw from Nuclear Arms Control Treaty with Russia, Raising Fears of a New Arms Race," Washington Post, February 1, 2019
Join Chris, Melanie, and Bryan — your Net Assessment podcasters — for a dive into nuclear weapons and grand strategy, and the degree to which they have impacted each other. The story is one of contradiction, of hubris, and of unproven (and unprovable) assertions.
Links
- Francis Gavin, "Rethinking the Bomb: Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy," TNSR, January 8, 2019
-
"Malaysian PM Doubles Down on Antisemitism in Oxford Union Address," JC, January 20, 2019
-
Dan Lamothe, "Unacceptable: Coast Guard's Top Officer Criticizes Lack of Payment in Government Shutdown," Washington Post, January 22, 2019
- "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs
-
Geoff Ziezulewicz, "Worse Than You Thought: Inside the Secret Fitzgerald Probe the Navy Doesn't Want You to Read," Navy Times, January 13, 2019
-
Ted Galen Carpenter, Gullible Superpower: U.S. Support for Bogus Foreign Democratic Movements, (Cato Institute, 2019)
The United States has managed to avoid foreign policy catastrophes during the first two years of the Trump administration, but defenders of American primacy espy trouble on the horizon. Most Americans have no living memory of the 1930s and World War II, and younger Americans, who have known only the inconclusive wars of the last fifteen years, are far less likely than their parents and grandparents to support higher levels of military spending. They favor a different kind of global engagement, one not predicated on American hard power. But can the liberal international order, such as it is, survive without America’s “big stick” military to back it up? And what, if anything, would replace it? On the lighter side, Melanie and Bryan also discuss binge-watching foreign television series over the holidays, and Chris shines the light on our safer, healthier, and wealthier world.
Links
- Eliot A. Cohen, “America’s Long Goodbye: The Real Crisis of the Trump Era,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019
- The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, "The Clash of Generations? Intergenerational Change and American Foreign Policy Views," June 2018
- Dorothy Manevich and Hanyu Chwe, “Globally, More People See U.S. Power and Influence as a Major Threat,” Pew Research Center, August 1, 2017
- Micah Zenko, “James Mattis Wasn’t Ready to Serve in a Democracy,” Foreign Policy, December 27, 2018
- Katie Bo Williams, “The Biggest Difference Between Inhofe and Smith? How Much Danger They Think the US Faces,” Defense One, December 18, 2018
- Greg Ip, “The World Is Getting Quietly, Relentlessly Better,” Wall Street Journal, January 2, 2019
- Faith Karimi, "Pentagon Chief of Staff Kevin Sweeney Resigns," CNN, January 7, 2019
- Mathilde Boussion, "As Congo Delays Election Results, People's Suspicions Rise," Washington Post, January 8, 2019
- Scott Shane and Alan Blinder, "Secret Experiment in Alabama Senate Race Imitated Russian Tactics," New York Times, December 19, 2018
- Paul Staniland, Tweets, December 21, 2018
- "The Ocean Clean Up"
- "HumanProgress"
In our last episode before the holidays, we take a look at the US-Saudi relationship. With President Trump standing by Mohammad bin Salman even as the CIA blames him for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, we discuss what weight human rights should have in foreign policy, whether Congress is reasserting its powers in national security matters, and what the United States should do with respect to Yemen. Bryan and Chris lament Navy's loss in the Army-Navy game and Bryan shares a personal interaction between his mother and the late President George H.W. Bush. Finally, in their recap of the Reagan National Defense Forum, we find out what Melanie keeps in her enormous purse, and where Bryan ranks in her choice of dinner mates.
Links
- Mike Pompeo, “The US-Saudi Partnership is Vital,” Wall Street Journal, November 27, 2018
- Michael Singh, “The United States, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East in the Post-Khashoggi Era,” War on the Rocks, December 10, 2018,
- Jonathan Berstein, "Judging John Kelly,” Bloomberg Opinion, December 11, 2018
- Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute,
- Laura Seligman and Elias Groll, “Khashoggi Report Hangs over Talks at Reagan Defense Forum, Mattis Accuses Putin of Election Meddling,” Foreign Policy, December 3, 2018
- Karen Elliott House, “Rethinking Saudi Arabia,” Wall Street Journal, November 30, 2018
- Emma Ashford and John Glaser, letter, “Saudi Move in Yemen: An Opening for Iran,” Wall Street Journal, November 23, 2018
- Wounded Warrior Project, Annual Warrior Survey
- Aaron Blake, “President Trump’s Full Washington Post Interview Transcript, Annotated,” Washington Post, November 27, 2018
- Jason Schwartz, “Weekly Standard Faces Uncertain Future after Holding its Ground against Trump,” Politico, December 4, 2018
- Edward Wong and Michele Forsythe, “China’s Tactic to Catch a Fugitive Official: Hold His Two American Children,” New York Times, November 25, 2018,
- “Huawei Executive Meng Wanzhou Released on Bail in Canada,” BBC, December 12, 2018
- Katie Bo William, “The Senate is Poised to Pass the Yemen Resolution. Now What?”, Defense One, December 6, 2018
- Emma Ashford, “A Guide to Saudi Arabia’s Influence in Washington,” The New Republic, December 6, 2018
- Nahal Toosi and Maryanne Levine, “Congress Looks to Usurp Trump’s Foreign Policy Powers,” Politico, December 5, 2018,
- Jesse Convertino, “Dog’s Unbridled Joy for Soldier’s Homecoming Goes Viral, Brings Smiles,” ABC News, November 29, 2018
- “Dog Waits for Weeks at Owner’s Home Destroyed by Fire,” CBS News Los Angeles
Hop aboard! In this episode, the crew dissects the recently released report of the National Defense Strategy Commission. Melanie, Chris, and Bryan weigh in on the report’s strengths and weaknesses. Also, Chris and Melanie reveal themselves to be Scrooges by expressing disdain for Hallmark Christmas dramas.
Links
- Eric Edelman and Gary Roughead, Providing for the Common Defense: The Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission (United States Institute of Peace, 2018).
- CNBC, “Deadly California Wildfire Now 100% Contained After Scorching 154,000 Acres,” Nov. 25, 2018
- Joseph Archer, "Beijing to Assign ‘Personal Trustworthiness Points’ For All Citizens by 2021," Telegraph, Nov. 20, 2018
- Greg Jaffe, “John Collins, Army Colonel Who Launched Influential Online Warlord Loop, Dies at 97,” Washington Post, Nov. 23, 2018
- “Pentagon Fails Audit and Nobody in Washington is Surprised,” Taxpayers for Common Sense, Nov. 16, 2018
- Lara Seligman, “How the Generals are Routing the Policy Wonks at the Pentagon,” Foreign Policy, Nov. 15, 2018
- “Anti Vaccine Community Behind North Carolina Chickenpox Outbreak,” BBC, Nov. 19, 2018
- Morgan Gstalter, “Disney Screenwriter Says Term ‘Anti-Vax’ is Equivalent to ‘N-Word,’” The Hill, Nov. 24, 2018
- Dennis Romboy, “Trump Backs Criminal Justice Reform Legislation that Sen. Mike Lee Helped Write,” Desert News, Nov.15, 2018
- Jack Crowe, “Mike Lee Accuses Tom Cotton of Spreading 'Fake News' on Criminal Justice Reform Bill,” National Review, Nov. 19, 2018
This episode kicks off with a discussion of the national security implications of the mid-term elections. With the Democratic Party retaking control of the House of Representatives, we expect to see fights over Pentagon spending, and more oversight of the Trump administration across-the-board. The show then turns to the curious story of a 1,300-page Army study of the Iraq War that has gone unpublished for two whole years. The case raises broader questions about the entire defense establishment’s capacity for self-reflection and analysis. Recent moves to shield the Pentagon from public scrutiny only add to these concerns. We focus our grievances on President Donald Trump in Europe, the New York Times re: North Korea, and Woodrow Wilson (for lots of things), and we mark the 243rd anniversary of the founding of the U.S. Marine Corps – or, as Bryan calls it, the Navy’s land force (Please direct your hate tweets to @ConsWahoo).
Links
- Michael R. Gordon, "The Army Stymied Its Own Study of the Iraq War," Wall Street Journal, Oct. 22, 2018
- Danny Sjursen, "Will Iraq Become Another 'Lesson Lost' Like Vietnam?" American Conservative, Nov. 6, 2018
- Todd South, "Army's Detailed Iraq War Study Remains Unpublished Years After Completion," Army Times, Oct. 25, 2018
- Adam Smith, "The Pentagon's Getting More Secretive – and It's Hurting National Security," Defense One, Oct. 28, 2018
- Fred Kaplan, "Could House Democrats Cancel the Pentagon's Blank Check?" Slate, Nov. 07, 2018
- Loren DeJonge Schulman and Alice Friend, "The Pentagon's Transparency Problem," Foreign Affairs, May 02, 2018
- Eric Gomez, "The Revenge of Expectation: Trump's Rhetoric and Kim's Missile Bases," Cato Institute, Nov. 12, 2018
- Paul Farhi, "What a Stupid Question: Trump Demeans Three Black Female Reporters in Three Day," Washington Post, Nov. 09, 2018
- Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent, The Ties That Blind: How the U.S.-Saudi Alliance Damages Liberty and Security, (Cato Institute, 2018)
- Shawn Snow, "To Corps, Country, and Each Other: Top Marine's Birthday Message May Leave You Hiding Tears," Marine Corps Times, Nov. 01, 2018
- Angelique Chrisafis and Ed Pilkington, "Trump Ramps Up Macron Spat by Mocking France in World Wars," Guardian, Nov. 13, 2018
- Adam Rubenstein, "Did Steve King Just Refer to Immigrants as 'Dirt' ?" Weekly Standard, Nov. 06, 2018
- Dylan Matthew, "Woodrow Wilson Was Extremely Racist – Even by the Standards of His Time," Vox, Nov. 20, 2015
Events
- Saudi Arabia's War in Yemen featuring Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), December 7th
- The Jones Act: Charting a New Course After a Century of Failure
Under the dark cloud of the synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh, this week’s Net Assessment podcast focuses on President Donald Trump’s that he intends to withdraw the United States from the INF Treaty. Although it’s a bilateral agreement with Russia, China factors heavily into our discussion, as do problems the president might face with allies and Congress going forward, should the withdrawal occur. We offer a few comments on the lack of civility we are experiencing, defense budget cuts, and Jeff Bezos. Finally, Bryan and Melanie politely listen while Chris congratulates the Red Sox on their World Series victory.
- Featured Article: Michael Krepon, "Nothing about Trashing the INF Treaty Makes the US Safer," Defense One, October 21, 2018.
- Sonny Bunch, “Jeff Bezos: King of the Tech Lords, " Washington Free Beacon, October 23, 2018.
- Elbridge Colby, "The INF Treaty Hamstrings the US. Trump is Right to Leave It," Center for a New American Security, October 23, 2018.
- Scott Cuomo, "It's Time to Make a New Deal Solving the INF Treaty's Strategic Liabilities to Achieve US Security Goals in Asia," Texas National Security Review, October 2018.
- Karoun Demirjian, "GOP Lawmakers Criticize Trump's Decision to Withdraw from Nuclear Arms Treaty," Washington Post, October 21, 2018.
- Michael Kofman, "Under the Missile's Shadow: What Does the Passing of the INF Treaty Mean?" War on the Rocks, October 26, 2018.
- Aaron Mehta, "It's Official: DoD Told to Take Cut with FY20 Budget," Defense News, October 26, 2018.
- Eric Sayers, "The Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Future of The Indo-Pacific Military Balance," War on the Rocks, February 13, 2018.
- Kori Schake, "Trump's Defensible Decision to withdraw from a Nuclear Treaty," The Atlantic, October 23, 2018.
- Gary Shih, "China Rolls Back Decades-Old Tiger and Rhino Parts Ban, Worrying Conservationists," Washington Post, October 29, 2018.
- Ian Williams, "Leaving the INF Treaty Now is the Right Call," CSIS, October 24, 2018.
This week’s Net Assessment podcast featured a deep-dive into the Vice President’s early October speech on the competition with China. Largely drowned out by the Kavanaugh SCOTUS controversy, Melanie, Chris, and Bryan give this important speech due consideration, to include administration views on Taiwan, China’s defense buildup, and its growing global influence. The crew also discussed foreign aid, the F-35, the deficit, the alleged assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, and the resignation of Nikki Haley. All of this while celebrating Melanie’s birthday.
Vice President’s Speech
- Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration's Policy Toward China
- Ethan Epstein, “How China Infiltrated US Classrooms,” Politico, January 16, 2018.
- Glenn Thrush, “Trump Embraces Foreign Aid to Counter China’s Global Influence,” New York Times, October 14, 2018.
- Jim DeBrosse, “Waiting for the Great Leap Forward,” Cincinnati Magazine, May 4, 2017.
- Alan Rappeport, “In New Slap at China, US Expands Power to Block Foreign Investments,” New York Times, October 10, 2018.
- Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang, “Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order,” New York Times, May 13, 2017.
- Adva Saldinger, "A New US Development Finance Agency Takes Flight," Devex, October 4, 2018
- Glenn Thrush, "Trump Embraces Foreign Aid to Counter China's Global Influence," The New York Times, October 14, 2018
Airing of Grievances
- https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna920191
- https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2018/09/exclusive-f-35-program-facing-another-setback/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/trumps-tax-cut-didnt-reduce-the-deficit--despite-his-many-promises.html
Attaboys
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/10/12/western-walkout-saudi-davos-desert-conference-over-jamal-khashoggi-undermines-kingdoms-modernization-plans/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/trumps-tax-cut-didnt-reduce-the-deficit--despite-his-many-promises.html
- https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/nikki-haley-resignation/index.html
What happens when a libertarian, a conservative hawk, and a constitutional powers specialist walk into a podcast studio? 'Net Assessment' happens. Welcome to the hottest new national security podcast hosted by Melanie Marlowe, Christopher Preble, and Bryan McGrath. This is a show about competing visions of America's role in the world. In each episode, they will be discussing a featured article, airing their grievances, and giving attaboys. In the first episode of this bi-weekly series, our hosts introduce themselves and their hopes for this podcast. They tackle this episode's featured article, Adrian Lewis' "The Ivory Tower and Academic Ignorance of What the Armed Forces Actually Do," published by Task & Purpose. They also discuss the role of American seapower and, of course, Twitter feuds. Don't forget to subscribe to Net Assessment on your podcast app of choice. * Adrian Lewis, “The Ivory Tower And Academic Ignorance Of What The Armed Forces Actually Do,” Task and Purpose, September 20, 2018. * Ken Buck, “Congress, Take Your War Powers Back,” Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2018. * Dion Nissenbaum, “Top U.S. Diplomat Backed Continuing Support for Saudi War in Yemen Over Objections of Staff,” Wall Street Journal, September 20, 2018. * Nicholas Kristof, “Be Outraged by America’s Role in Yemen’s Misery,” New York Times, September 26, 2018. * Claudia Grisales and Corey Dickstein, “Vice Adm. Faller: 'I Was Cleared of All Wrongdoing' in 'Fat Leonard' Case,” Stars and Stripes, September 25, 2018. * Chico Harlan, “Vatican and China Reach ‘Provisional’ Deal on Appointment of Bishops,” Washington Post, September 22, 2018. * Corey Dickstein, "House Lawmakers Confused over US Military’s Goals in Syria as Pentagon Maintains Focus on ISIS," Stars and Stripes, September 26, 2018. * Joshua Keating, “Why John Bolton is So Obsessed with the International Criminal Court," Slate, September 10, 2018.
- Base Redevelopment Forum, Association of Defense Communities, Portland, Maine, October 8-10, 2018.
- The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy by Stephen M. Walt, Book Forum with the author, Cato Institute, October 17, 2018.
War on the Rocks is excited to introduce an exciting new biweekly podcast: "Net Assessment." This new series features three assertive and experienced national security hands, debating important issues related to strategy, defense, and foreign affairs. Join Melanie Marlowe, Bryan McGrath, and Christopher Preble for "Net Assessment." This trailer gives you a taste of what's to come.