2 Question Tuesday Presented by Focused Wealth Management: Recent Episodes
Focused Wealth Management
Every Tuesday, Managing Director Philip DeAngelo and Director of Financial Planning Michael Passante answer two questions sent in by clients of Focused Wealth Management. Topics can include financial markets, current events, and financial planning. If you have a question, send us an email at question@2questiontuesday.com for a chance to have your question answered on air!
Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss all the negative reports coming out, such as consumer sentiment hitting its lowest point in 16 years, and why it feels like we’re in a recession when GDP is expected to grow this year. They then talk about why the market fell after Nvidia posted great earnings and gave forecasts higher than Wall Street expected.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether artificial intelligence is driving the surge in U.S. GDP growth. They then talk about how the Nasdaq has dropped 6% and the S&P 500 is down about 4%, and whether we are heading into a correction or just letting some air out of the AI bubble.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the 175% surge in layoffs in October, the biggest one-month reduction in 20 years, and what it means for the economy. They then talk about how a K-shaped stock market coinciding with a K-shaped economy is affecting economic growth.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what it means that the Federal Reserve is ending quantitative tightening, why it’s doing it, and why QT won’t add to inflation. They then talk about news articles declaring the 60% stock/40% bond portfolio to be dead.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why gold posted its largest one-day drop in more than a decade. They then talk about the latest inflation numbers which climbed to more than 3% and whether this will hurt the prospect of more interest rate cuts this year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why Phil and Mike are wearing ties and what FEMU is, the firm, economic and market update. They then talk about why regional banks fell on Thursday, bank fraud, what are non-depository financial institutions, or NDFIs, and will we see something similar to the bank crisis in 2023.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the bankruptcy of auto supplier First Brands, which owes $10 billion to some of Wall Street’s biggest names, the risks and lack of transparency in its deals, and if this will affect the financial markets. They then talk about why the market took a dive on Friday and if this downward trend will continue.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why the market is rallying after the government shut down started. They then talk about how gold and stocks are not usually correlated, and what it means that they are both rallying together.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the new $100,000 fee to apply for H-1B visas, which are required in many industries to allow foreigners to fill temporary jobs, especially in technology, and how this will affect the tech sector. They then talk about how the market will react if we have a government shutdown combined with mass governmental firings.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will change the way practitioners use estate-planning strategies. They then discuss the stock market hitting all-time highs, September being the worst performing month, on average, going back nearly a century, and whether Focused Wealth Management is hedging client portfolios.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the latest jobless report, which came in higher than expected, and how this will affect the Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts at this week’s meeting. They then discuss the rally in gold, pushing the precious metal to all-time high,s and what this means for the economy
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how big of an interest rate cut the market expects from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting. They then discuss what to do about your fixed income portfolio before the Fed cuts rates.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Friday’s ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that President Trump overstepped his presidential authority when he imposed levies on virtually every country in the world and what happens now in the market and economy. They then talk about Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook who sued to challenge her removal by President Trump, whether she’ll be able to vote on interest rates at the September meeting, and how will this affect the independence of the Fed.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Friday’s rally in the stock market which saw the Dow Jones Industrial average soar 1.9% and the S&P 500 surge 1.5%. They then discuss the falling dollar and how this can help investor portfolios.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how 91% of fund managers think U.S. stocks are too expensive, the highest number since 2001. They then discuss defensive and bearish signals in the market and what the firm is doing to hedge investors’ portfolios.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how Wall Street strategists think the U.S. economy is moving toward stagflation while the consumer price index rose less than expected last month despite the tariffs. They then discuss why the market is ignoring the tariff news and continuing to rise.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s jobs report, the big downward revision for the two previous months, and what this means for the economy. They then discuss President Trump firing the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the bad jobs report and what this means going forward. Can the market still trust these numbers?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why home sales are falling during what is normally one of the housing market’s busiest times of the year, people being unable to afford new homes, and what this means for the economy. They then discuss the current meme stock mania and whether this will hurt the broader stock market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the new executive order that allows employees to invest in private assets through their 401(k) retirement plans and whether investors should incorporate private assets into their retirement portfolios. They then explain how the tariffs have caused the second monthly decline in shipping containers bringing imports to the U.S., which could lead to one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record and what this means for the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how the new 50% tariff on copper and the ensuing price increase will hurt the economy. They then talk about the latest consumer price index reading jumping 0.3% in June for a 12-month inflation rate of 2.7% and whether this is the first sign of the tariffs working their way through the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and the renewal of the tax cuts could spark a summer rally. They then talk about how the markets will react now that the president has instituted tariffs on Japan, South Korea and other countries, and moved the deadline for tariff reprieve to August 1.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry explain what the new U.S.-China trade deal means for the financial markets. They then talk about how the markets will react if President Trump removes Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve Bank.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry explain why the stock market rose and oil prices fell the first trading day after the U.S. bombed Iran. They then talk about how President Trump’s immigration policies, the growing domestic protests, and the attack on Iran, could cause a $12 billion drop in the U.S. tourism industry and how this will affect the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Israel’s attack on Iran and what will happen in the oil and global markets if the Iranian regime falls and what happens if it stays in power. They then talk about whether it’s worth paying attention to consumer sentiment readings after the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment jumped 16% from last month, beating the Dow Jones estimate, and consumers now expect that inflation will fall.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry explain how an ADP Research report that said hiring decelerated to the slowest pace in two years — pointing to a weakened demand for workers — can exist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that non-farm payrolls rose for May, beating the estimate. They then talk about President Trump doubling the tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% and how will this affect the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the negative factors affecting the Treasury bond market, such as the 30-year bond yield hitting 5%, a new survey saying investors expect the bond market to worsen, short positions climbing, and a new tax bill, which if passed will raise the country’s deficit. They then talk about the Court of International Trade blocking most of Trump’s tariffs, the federal appeals court that paused the suspension, and what happens next.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry first discuss the radical moves in the bond market. From March, when Phil was worried about the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond falling below 4% to the reversal that saw the 10-year climb above 4.5% last week. They then talk about what the financial markets response will be if President Trump’s tax bill is passed and adds trillions to the country’s ballooning national debt of $37 trillion.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the five Republican hard-liners who voted against President Trump’s massive tax cut bill, called the Big Beautiful Bill, and what the market’s reaction will be if there is no tax cut. Also last week, Moody’s Ratings Agency downgraded the United States’ credit a notch to Aa1 from the highest rating, triple A. It cited the government’s massive budget deficit amid high interest rates, which is higher than similarly rated sovereigns. They then talk about what this means for the bond market and the economy in general.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the U.S. and China agreeing to roll back the tariffs for a 90-day period, what this means for the economy, and what happens after 90 days. They then discuss the hearings today in the Court of International Trade in New York, which will hear arguments about the legality of Trump’s tariffs.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the S&P 500’s tremendous bounce back from its April lows and why it’s doing so well even as gross domestic product fell. They then discuss the stronger-than-expected job growth in April — which eased concerns about tariffs and caused the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to rise – and what they expect the Federal Reserve will do at its meeting this week.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the S&P 500’s 11% rebound and whether this means the worst is over and we’ve seen the market’s bottom or if we should expect more downside. They then discuss why the markets are rising even though U.S. consumer sentiment in April fell to one of the lowest readings on record, 52.2 from 57 a month ago, and inflation expectations are the highest since 1981.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss if they agree with Larry Fink, who said the U.S. is already in a recession. Fink is the CEO of Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager. Then they talk about President Trump’s desire to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and how that will affect the markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the S&P 500 Index plunged 10% last week, pushing the index close to bear territory, and how long they expect the market to keep falling. Then they discuss the rumor going around that the Trump Administration isn’t trying to stop the market slide because it wants Treasury yields to fall even more so that it can refinance $9 trillion in government debt that matures this year at a lower rate.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the Fed’s preferred inflation reading rose higher than analysts’ forecasts — 0.4% from January and 2.8% from last year — sending the S&P 500 down for its fifth week out of the last six. They then discuss how the threat of tariffs has pulled forward purchases by consumers and businesses and whether that’s artificially propping up the economy and setting us up for a recession.
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A dramatic shift in U.S. trade policy has markets reeling. In this special 2QT short, Philip DeAngelo and Michael Passante dissect the unexpectedly high tariffs, their implications for GDP and consumer spending, and how investors can navigate this era of uncertainty.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond spiked to 4.5% last week. Then they discuss the one thing their clients need to know during this market turmoil that no one is telling them.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how international stocks are outperforming the S&P 500 Index this year after years of underperformance and whether investors should be increasing their allocations of international stocks. They then discuss where they see the S&P 500 index going, now that it’s down 8% off of its record high and just broke its four week losing streak.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry ponder the question “Do politics determine the market’s direction?” The current political climate would appear to prove this out. They then discuss whether the stock market hit a bottom last week when it entered correction territory. A recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, which showed bullish investor sentiment fell to its lowest point since September 2022, while bearish sentiment approached the high for the year. That extreme level of bearish sentiment is typically associated with bear-market bottoms.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the S&P 500, which fell 3% last week, and whether they expect it to fall much further. They then discuss the theory that the Trump Administration is intentionally trying to cause a recession.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about billionaire investor Steve Cohen, the head of the Point72 hedge fund. He said punitive tariffs, a crackdown on immigration, and cuts in federal spending, will have a negative effect on the economy. He predicts U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.5% and that the market could see a correction. They then discuss why the market gave up all of this year’s gains and what do they see moving forward.
Here is a link to Focused Wealth Management's Firm, Market, and Economic Update 2024. We highly encourage you to check it out. It’s great stuff!
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s stock market selloff after the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 64.7 in February, a 10% drop from January’s number, and the lowest since November 2023. They then discuss the rumors of a so-called ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’, in which President Trump could dramatically restructure America’s debt load by forcing some of the U.S.’s foreign creditors to swap their Treasurys into ultra long-term bonds to ease the country’s debt burden. This could possibly upend the entire global financial order.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the stock market keeps advancing despite rising inflation — which eliminates the potential for more rate cuts — threats of more tariffs, and disappointing earnings from tech companies. Then they discuss the rumors of a proposed takeover of Intel and what it means for the chip industry.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how the University of Michigan consumer survey for February showed that consumers are worried about inflation rising amid tariff fears. Consumer sentiment fell 5% from January to 67.8, and consumers now expect the inflation rate to be 4.3% a year from now. They then discuss last week’s disappointing earnings and future guidance from the big tech companies and what this means for the market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about President Trump putting 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, how this will affect the economy and if this will cause a big stock market selloff. They then discuss Trump’s attempt last week to freeze millions of dollars of Congressional spending before the judiciary stopped it. If he tries again, which agencies will be affected and how will that impact investors?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about China unveiling over the weekend a new artificial intelligence from its start-up DeepSeek that is much lower in cost than the AI currently in the US, and whether this will be a viable threat to the big AI purveyors. They then discuss what the impact will be on the U.S. economy of President Trump pulling out of the Paris climate accords.
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This November, we hosted our 9th Firm, Economic & Market Update, covering key topics like strengthened cybersecurity, enhanced client engagement through Salesforce, and our disciplined investment philosophy focused on long-term value creation. Despite 2024's challenges, we stayed focused on guiding clients through volatility while positioning for future opportunities.
Thank you for your loyalty and partnership. Here’s to continued success as we look ahead to 2025 and beyond!
Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the California wildfires and what affect this will have on the American insurance industry and the stock market. They then discuss the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which hit 7% last week, an eight-month high, after rising for five weeks. They address how this is squeezing would-be homebuyers already facing rising house prices and limited supply and what affect this will have on the financial markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how after a better-than-expected jobs report, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed to 4.8%, its highest level in more than two years. This followed a week which saw bonds sell-off on fears that Trump’s policy proposals of tariffs, lower taxes, and mass deportations could spark a rebound in inflation and recreate the market seen in 2022, when stocks and bonds fell together. They then discuss the dollar surging and pushing the Euro to its lowest value since November 2023, what this will do to the Fed’s thinking on interest rates, and if this is good for the stock market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss commodities, how to use them in a portfolio, and their view on the high prices of gold and silver. They then talk about the big investment banks’ outlooks for the S&P 500 Index in 2025. These outlooks look very similar to the predictions they made last year and most predictions over the past 25 years. Should investors pay attention to these forecasts or are they just window dressing?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the U.S. dollar’s 7% rise 2024 being the best year it’s had since 2015, and whether this is good for consumers and investors. Then they talk about how even as the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has been rising and what effect this will have on the markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s sell-off in the bond market, which pushed the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to 4.4%, and what this means for the Fed meetings next week and next month. They then discuss the details of the increase in estate and gift tax exemptions for 2025.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the stock market continuing to rally into the new year, a “melt up”, and then the possibility of a "melt down" – a big selloff – next year. They then discuss Bitcoin’s crossing the $100,000 level and if this means Bitcoin has now entered into the financial mainstream.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the financial planning moves investors should make before the year ends, such as tax-loss harvesting. They then discuss the possibility of the stock market experiencing a Santa rally over the next month.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, and what this will mean for the market and the economy. They then discuss what will happen to the economy if the countries we impose tariffs on decide to impose tariffs on American goods and exports.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry examine why Warren Buffett’s firm, Berkshire Hathaway, has been a net seller of stocks this year, selling large parts of Berkshire’s holdings in Apple, Bank of America, Capital One and T-Mobile. Does this mean Buffett is expecting a market crash? They then discuss if the combination of giant deficits and tariffs will cause inflation and interest rates to rise and lead to an economic downturn.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the October jobs report and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which hit a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.1%, will affect the Fed’s thinking on cutting interest rates in November. They then talk about the new IRS 2025 catch-up contribution limits for 401(k)s and other retirement accounts.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s jobs report which came in much stronger than Wall Street expected and forced market participants to drastically change their views on future interest rate cuts this year. They then talk about how it’s been a year since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, how the conflict has expanded to now include Iran, and what this means for the oil and stock markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s economic reports – the personal consumption expenditures price index, which showed the 12-month inflation rate is at 2.2%, the lowest rate since February 2021, and a report that showed U.S unemployment benefits fell to a four-month low – and what those reports mean for future interest rate cuts this year. They then talk about trusts and when people should consider using them.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the Federal Funds interest rate by half a percentage point last week and what it means for investors lives. They then talk about the strange moves by the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Specifically, they address why yields declined before the rate was cut, but rose after the Fed’s announcement.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the consumer price index hitting its lowest level in three years and what they expect the Federal Reserve to do at its policy meeting this week. Will it be quarter-percentage-point cut or a half-percentage-point? And how will the market react? They then discuss the estate tax exemption, which will be cut nearly in half at the end of 2025, and what people should do to plan for the change.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s drop in the stock market, which was the worst on the S&P 500 since March 2023, and whether there will be another correction in September. They then talk about what Focused Wealth Management is doing to prepare client portfolios in anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rate soon.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss reports from earlier this summer that Warren Buffet’s company Berkshire Hathaway sold half its stake in Apple and how this enormous amount of shares hitting the market will affect the benchmark indexes? They then talk about last week’s news that Berkshire sold 13% of its stake in Bank of America and why would it do this before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss reports that bond traders are taking on a record amount of risk, betting big on a Treasury market rally fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month. They then talk about the Labor Department revising its last jobs report 30% lower by 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, and what this means for the Fed.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stock market’s rapid recovery after last Monday’s plunge and whether the markets will experience another significant drop or if that was it for the correction. They then discuss financial planning moves investors can make if another downturn occurs.
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In a Special Monday Edition, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why global markets are plunging on Monday and whether this is a short-term blip or a long-term decline. They then talk about what they expect the Federal Reserve’s next move will be. Join us for expert insights and analysis!
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss former President Trump wanting a weaker dollar to help American manufacturers sell their products overseas, how the government could weaken the dollar, and how this would affect inflation. They then talk about spousal lifetime access trusts, better known as SLATs.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s sell-off in global chip stocks after reports that the Biden administration is considering tighter export restrictions on chips being sent to China. They then talk about what will happen to the election and the markets now that President Biden has dropped out of the presidential race.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the S&P 500 Index and the Dow both hitting all-time highs on Friday, and the rising number of Wall Street pros that feel the market is overheated and fear we may have a pullback in the third quarter. They then talk about the assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, and if and how this will affect the market, the economy, and the election.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the increased tariffs President Biden placed on $18 billion in Chinese imports — including electric vehicles, advanced batteries, solar cells, steel, aluminum and medical equipment — and their effect on the U.S. economy and the consumer. They then talk about strategies people use to pass along wealth before they die without incurring taxes.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Barclays’ new strategy to buy inflation hedges in the U.S. Treasury market in the wake of the Presidential Debate and the idea that Trump may win the presidency and cause inflation to rise. They then talk about how the S&P 500 has gone 387 days without a 2% sell-off, which is the longest stretch since the financial crisis, according to FactSet. And it’s come with conspicuously little volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the de facto fear gauge on Wall Street, in May hit its lowest level going back to November 2020 and it continues to trade near historically low levels.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the U.S. Treasury market about to break even on the year after a first half which felt like a roller coaster ride. Having fallen 3.4% in April, bonds are now down just 0.1% year to date. They then discuss Morgan Stanley getting sued last week for failing to secure reasonable interest rates on its customers cash balances and how Focused Wealth Management handles client cash.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how three companies now make up 20% of the S&P 500 Index and if buying an S&P fund in this environment create undo risk? They then address a new plan from former president Trump on replacing the income tax with tariffs and if this idea will send inflation soaring by raising the price on most imported goods by as much as 110%?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how a million homes since 2019 have been bought with an adjustable-rate mortgage. Many of these loans are set at a rate lower than the prevailing 30-year interest rate for the first few years, then adjusted based on current borrowing costs. Coming out of the fixed period after interest rates soared is terrible timing for more than 330,000 borrowers. These payments could double and some homeowners say they might delay or default on their mortgage after that happens. They then talk about how Moody’s, the ratings agency, said it may downgrade the ratings of six U.S. regional banks due to their exposure to commercial real estate loans, and wonder what the repercussions might be for the stock market?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last Wednesday’s comments by JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said he expects problems to emerge in the $1.7 trillion private-credit industry, particularly as retail clients gain access to the booming asset class. They then talk about last week’s weak sale of Treasuries, which sparked concerns that funding the US deficit will drive up yields at a time when the Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut rates. With inflation sticky, these bond sales may be affecting stocks.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Nvidia’s stellar earnings, the subsequent market rally, and what this means for the tech sector going forward. They then talk about the Federal Reserve and it’s governors repeatedly telling the market the Fed plans to keep interest rates higher for longer with the possibility of a rate hike, and how this will affect the stock market for the rest of the year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s historic crossing of the 40,000-point milestone last week, what has been driving the rally that helped the market hit 40,000 and what the next big milestone will be. They then discuss the copper market, which saw the metal’s price climb to more than $10,000 a ton last week in London.
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Phil, Mike, and Zac celebrate a special edition of 2 Question Tuesday, honoring the four-year anniversary of the show’s first episode. A lot has changed over the past four years, so first Phil and Mike discuss what they’ve learned about both the stock and bond markets during that time. They then reflect on the origins of the podcast, and why they decided to start it in the first place.
We want to thank you, our loyal clients, for tuning in each week over the past four years. It’s an honor to work for you each and every day, and we couldn’t have made it this far without you. Also, special thanks to Karl Bischoff, our multimedia editor who’s been with us from the beginning, and Mary Jane’s Dairy Bar for the delicious ice cream cake.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to keep interest rates unchanged and the softer-than-expected jobs report out Friday that has the market thinking we will get a rate cut sooner than later. They then talk about a plan by conservative economists to get former-President Trump to embrace a flat tax of 17%, should he get elected, and what this would mean for the nation.
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Phil, Mike, and Zac discuss what’s going on in the tech sector after Meta posts a huge drop in its stock price after saying it’s going to spend more on A.I. and similar news from Alphabet and Microsoft sparks a Nasdaq rally. They then talk about what’s going in the economy after GDP came in slower than expected, posting the smallest increase in two years, and the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation came in higher than forecast.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the SEC’s new rule to require trade settlement to happen the day after the trade takes place, T+1, and how long will it be before trades are settled instantaneously. They then discuss the Biden Administration’s proposal to tax unrealized gains on stocks, land, and other assets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the falling stock market. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 921 points, or 2.4%, for its largest weekly loss since March last year, and the S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly loss in 2024. With Monday’s decline the Dow is now flat on the year. They then talk about the global oil benchmark Brent jumping above $92 on Friday, a six-month high, and futures surging 19%, in anticipation of a possible attack by Iran on Israel. Now that the assault has happened, people fear it may widen the conflict in the Middle East and disrupt an area of the globe that makes up a third of the world’s oil output.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the mixed signals the Fed is giving off. One Fed Bank president says we’re close to seeing rates cut. Another says there will be no rate cuts. And a third suggests we will see another rate hike. What is in the water there? Since the market expects rate cuts before the end of the year, what should we expect if the market believes there will be no rate cuts this year? The price of gold just hit another record on Monday, surging to $2,372. Gold typically rises when interest rates fall. In light of what the Fed presidents said, why is gold surging?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Department of Justice’s antitrust lawsuit against Apple and what this means for both Apple and the tech sector in general. Then Mike, Focused Wealth Management’s director of financial planning, follows up last week’s podcast with more financial-planning moves people should be aware of before April 15, the tax filing deadline.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Phil’s three-year-old prediction for Dow 40,000 in 10 years, what he saw in December 2020 that led him to make that forecast, and what he sees now as the Dow approaches that milestone. Then Mike, Focused Wealth Management’s Director Of Financial Planning, explains financial-planning moves people should be aware of before April 15, the tax filing deadline.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s reports, such as the producer price index, which rose the most in six months, and other data show that inflation remains elevated. They then talk about the interest rate cuts that seemed inevitable a few months back, which now appear to be delayed until mid-summer. After that, Charles Yarnold, Managing Director of Retirement Plan Services at Focused Wealth Management, talks about what he did this past weekend and why is it so important to him and the firm.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how one year after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the commercial real estate crisis took its first victim, New York Community Bancorp, which has seen its stock plunge 73% this year. They then discuss if we should we expect more regional banks to fall into trouble. After that, they address the huge rally in Bitcoin and whether it’s connected to the speculation in the stock market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s comments by Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, where she said there’s no urgent need to cut interest rates given the strength of the economy. They then talk about how access to automobile credit is the lowest since August 2020, while the percentage of US auto loans delinquent 90 days or more rose above the 15-year average of 2.16% to 2.66% in the fourth quarter.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry return to discussing the looming commercial real estate loan crisis and if we should be worried about the fallout in commercial real estate. The potential size of this crisis becomes clearer as deals pick up across the country and show real estate prices in Manhattan and L.A. falling as much as 50%. Then to celebrate Focused Wealth Management’s 30th anniversary, Phil and Mike answer a client who asks: What have you learned over the past 30 years?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stickiness of inflation after the producer price index for January, a measurement of wholesale prices, came in stronger than expected. This was right after the consumer price index was also higher than Wall Street estimated. What do these two reports mean for rate cuts this year? They then talk about regulators giving greater scrutiny to the portfolios of commercial real estate loans that are currently held by banks and lenders, and whether this could have a big effect on the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the latest print of the consumer price index, which came out Tuesday morning, and what this means for the Federal Reserve and for interest rate cuts this year. They then talk about what investors should look for when investing in the hot new sector of Artificial Intelligence.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the narrative about the economy and rate cuts was turned upside down last week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, removed its bias toward hiking, and said that the economy was expanding at a solid pace, right before the latest jobs report came in stronger than expected. They then talk about how 80% of fourth-quarter earnings have so far beaten Wall Street’s estimates, especially technology companies, and what this means for the markets going forward.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, increasing only 0.2% in December, and 2.9% on a yearly basis, a three-year low. They examine if the Fed could start lowering interest rates soon or if we’ll see another jump in inflation as shipping rates rise due to the Houthis continuing to fire on cargo ships in the Red Sea. They then look at the crash in the Chinese Stock Market, down 40% over three years, and how they approach investing in China.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether investors should jump back into the market with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs, tech stocks rallying again, consumer confidence rising, inflation expectations falling, and Americans suddenly feeling more upbeat about the economy. They then talk about why small-cap stocks are still 25% off their all-time highs even as the large-caps set new records.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacking commercial ships as a statement against Israel, the possibility this becomes an expansion of the Israel-Hamas war, and whether Iran will get involved. They then talk about how these attacks are causing shipping rates to surge, the recent spike in inflation, and whether this will cause the Fed to re-evaluate cutting interest rates.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stronger-than-expected jobs report which ended the stock market’s nine-week rally. The Nasdaq ended the week down 3.25% — its worst weekly performance since September. They also evaluate the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting and the implication that the Fed will keep interest rates higher longer than the market anticipates with fewer rate cuts.
They then talk about how the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond climbed back above 4% on the assumption that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. They also say how high they expect bond yields to rise and whether it’s too late to get into the bond market?
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As we enter the new year, we are excited to share our annual “Firm, Economic, and Market Update.”
In our 2023 Firm Economic and Market Update video, we highlighted the challenges the markets faced, with the S&P 500 declining by 20% and U.S. bond markets encountering difficulties. Despite the uncertainties, our firm accurately predicted a market rebound. The markets have indeed exhibited a notable recovery, with the S&P 500 up nearly 25%, and bond markets responding positively to the quickest conclusion of a Fed interest cycle in history.
In addition to economic insights, we usually discuss geopolitical events in our updates. Unfortunately, this year has brought its share of global challenges, particularly with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and tragic events in Israel. Our thoughts are with those affected, and we are committed to navigating these complex global dynamics in the best interest of our clients.
In the attached video, we provide our 2024 forecast and our 2023 “score card” (13:33) where, in line with our long-term average, out of 13 predictions we made this year, we saw 11.5 come true.
Looking ahead to 2024, our team has dedicated significant effort to provide you with a comprehensive market forecast. We understand the importance of staying informed and making well-informed decisions for your financial well-being.
The team at Focused Wealth Management is uniquely positioned to offer financial clarity to our clients during these critical times. We value the opportunity to provide guidance, advice, and support during volatile markets and are proud to help our clients achieve their financial goals.
We wish you happiness, good health, and prosperity in the coming year. Thank you for entrusting Focused Wealth Management with your financial journey. We eagerly anticipate continuing to serve you in the coming year and beyond.
Best regards,
Philip J. DeAngelo
Managing Director
Focused Wealth Management
Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the recent rally in the stock market leading up to, and immediately after, the Federal Reserve meeting last week and the subsequent declines. They then analyze whether stocks are currently overbought and will this rally continue into the new year. After that they talk about year-end tax planning and the moves investors need to take in their portfolios, such as tax-loss harvesting.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what they think the Federal Reserve will do at this week’s meeting in light of the S&P 500 closing Monday at its 52-week high after the November Jobs report showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%, from 3.9% in October. They then answer a client’s question asking if stocks will enter a bear market in 2024 and what we should do to prepare for such an event.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry answer a question from a Focused Wealth Management client who wonders why with 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds currently yielding about 4.2%, why do the bonds in his portfolio post yields of 2.25%? They then discuss the death of Charlie Munger, the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffet’s right-hand man, and what lessons Phil and Mike have learned from Munger and Buffet and how this affects their investment decisions. And finally, Larry announces the publication of his new book, Investing in Dividends for Dummies
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Since its recent low of 4117 on Oct. 27, the S&P 500 has rallied 10% and the Nasdaq is up 11%. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how they expect the market to perform from now until the end of the year. They then discuss Focused Wealth Management’s recently released market outlook for 2024.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss a term bandied around in the stock market quite a bit these days: a soft economic landing. They explain what exactly a soft landing is and how we will know if the Fed is able to achieve one. They then ponder why so few people believe that we are in a good economy despite all the evidence saying it is.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how Congress needs to come up with a budget deal by Nov. 17, what are the implications if a deal can’t be struck, and what happens if we experience a real government shutdown? Then Focused Wealth Management’s Compliance Officer, Zachary Manheim, talks about attending one of the world’s largest compliance conferences at the same time China’s largest bank suffered a cyberattack. Zac then describes everything Focused Wealth is doing to mitigate cyberattacks and safeguard client’s information.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s jobs report that came in lower than Wall Street expected, revised previous jobs reports lower, and showed unemployment rising. They consider whether this is enough data for the Federal Reserve to stop increasing the Federal Funds rate. They then ponder the Israeli-Hamas war and what the implications of a protracted conflict would mean for the U.S. stock market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s report showing third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 4.9% on an annualized basis. They examine why stocks are falling on such a positive report and does this economic strength mean the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its November meeting? They then talk about the default of one of China’s largest real estate developers, Country Garden Holdings, that country’s overall economic problems, and how will this affect the U.S. economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what’s going on in the markets after the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit 5% last week for the first time since 2007, and the S&P 500 posted its worst week in a month and fell below its 200-day moving average. They then talk about how the number of junk bonds set to mature in the next 36 months has soared to levels last seen right in 2007. The junk bond issuers that are poised-to-refinance make up 19% of the total high-yield market, but they will likely have trouble surviving in an era of prolonged high interest rates. This may drive a lot of these names into bankruptcy causing a major credit event.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates in light of the fact that we recently had a positive jobs report and two reports showing inflation is still strong, which bolster the case for another rate hike. They then talk about how defense stocks jumped 5% last week in the wake of the Hamas attack on Israel and whether they are going to keep rising.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel over the weekend, Israel’s declaration that this is a war that won’t be over quickly, and what affect this will have on the U.S. markets. They then talk about the contraction in the M2 money supply, which is the Federal Reserve’s estimate of all the cash and savings vehicles that can be quickly turned into cash, and what this decline means for the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss fact that the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds are still rising, pushing the 10-year bond up to 4.6%, and question how much higher the yields on these bonds are going to rise. They then talk about how the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measurement, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose just 0.1% in August, and whether this means the Fed will not raise interest rates at its next meeting in November.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what will happen to the markets and the economy if the House of Representatives actually causes a government shutdown in five days. Then with the stock market headed to its worst monthly decline, they address what will happen if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher longer than the market expects and how investors should deal with it.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the United Auto Workers unprecedented move to strike against all three of the legacy Detroit carmakers simultaneously, and how this will affect the economy and the markets. They then talk about the antitrust trial the US Department of Justice brought against Google last week and what this will do to the tech sector and the market in general?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how high oil prices will rise after oil hit a nine-month high last week on fears about tight supplies as Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their oil production cuts until year end. They then talk about hedge fund investor Dan Niles citing three reasons why he’s betting against Apple, the maker of the iPhone and making it his largest single-stock short position. Niles cited three reasons for his bearishness, but his biggest worry is China’s iPhone ban.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss last week’s economic reports and what they mean for inflation, the possibility of a recession and the Federal Reserve’s view on interest rates. This causes them to ask, can the stock market rally if interest rates stay at this high level for some time? They then talk about the Fed’s demands that regional banks shore up their liquidity, and if the banks can’t meet the requirements will this hurt the economy?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the problems in China’s economy — dismal consumer spending, a shaky property market, falling exports, record youth unemployment, increasing local government debt, and a real estate sector that’s unraveling — and how they will affect the U.S. economy and markets. They then talk stock buybacks; how many billions of dollars are flowing back into the stock market because of these buybacks and is this a distortion investors can take advantage of?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the implications to the economy as U.S. mortgage rates hit the highest level in 20 years, which combined with a housing inventory shortage has pushed housing affordability to its worst point since 1984. They then talk about how the stock market has fallen 5% since the end of July, if this drop will hit the low last seen in October, and how long will the recovery take?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Schwab and TD Ameritrade merger and what it means for investors using their platforms, specifically, will there be additional charges? They then talk about U.S. credit-card balances surpassing $1 trillion last quarter for the first time and what the implications are for the markets and the broader economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what last week’s downgrade by Fitch Ratings of the government’s AAA credit rating to AA+ means to the economy and the safety of Treasury bonds. They then discuss the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond’s yield rising above 4% again. They then explain how if you buy a bond today with a 3.5% coupon you will receive a yield at maturity greater than 4%.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how last week’s strong GDP report caused economists to re-evaluate their projections for a recession and it looks like the U.S. is returning a Goldilocks economy that is neither too hot nor too cold. Does this mean this is a risk-on environment and that investors should put all their money to work? They then address how the strong GDP and lowered expectations for a recession may be working against the Fed’s efforts to reduce inflation, leaving open the possibility of another rate hike this year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the “Green Jobs” politicians talk about. What are these jobs? Where are they? And in which industries are these jobs found? They then address the wide divergence in performance between growth and value stocks year to date.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the significant decline in inflation with both the CPI and Producer Price Index posting the smallest increases in two years. Will this lead the Fed to stop raising interest rates? They then address the U.S. dollar dropping to a 15-month low and what this means for both consumers and the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what caused last week’s surge in bond yields with the 2-year U.S. Treasury note crossing 5% and the 10-year bond hitting 4%, and forecast how high yields will go. They then address the decline in stocks since the beginning of July, and will the artificial intelligence-tech rally fizzle out with more rate hikes?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how the Supreme Court’s ruling against President Biden’s plan to slash student debt will take a significant chunk of cash out of the economy and how this will affect the markets? They then address the slow down in consumer spending, how central banks feel that inflation remains too high, and the possibility of more rate hikes.
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With about $1.4 trillion of commercial real estate loans due this year and next, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the debt time bomb in commercial real estate and what this could mean for the economy and the markets, and how people should prepare for it. They then talk about how June U.S. business activity expanded at the slowest pace in three months, held back by a deep contraction at factories, and the five-month low in business activity in the Euro zone. They then look at whether the U.S. economy can withstand a global slowdown.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause on raising interest rates last Wednesday, after 15 months of increases, as well as it’s decision to likely resume tightening as soon as next month.
They then address the question of whether bonds are now more attractive than equities.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the stock market rally in Artificial Intelligence, known as AI, and how Focused Wealth Management is investing in this sector for its clients. They then address the question of whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June or finally pause its schedule of rate hikes and what this will mean for the stock and bond markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what President Biden’s ending of the debt-ceiling crisis and Friday’s huge jobs report means for the market. They then address a Bloomberg article that says, around the world a backlash is brewing against the hegemony of the U.S. dollar. Bloomberg said many global leaders feel the dollar is being weaponized, in an effort to push America’s foreign-policy priorities — and punish those that oppose them — best seen in the financial pain the U.S. brought to Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry address how the debt ceiling debate has caused bond yields to rise dramatically all across the board and whether this is a good time to buy bonds. They then discuss whether it’s better to buy bond funds or individual bonds in this environment.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry again discuss the debt ceiling debate after President Biden and top lawmakers once again postponed a meeting on Friday to discuss it for the second consecutive week, leaving just two weeks to make a deal. They then address the rally in technology stocks, which are up nearly 20 percent year to date.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the debt ceiling debate after President Biden and top lawmakers postponed Friday’s meeting. However, there are just four days when both the House and Senate are scheduled to be in session before June 1, which is the date when the US could default on its obligations. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the failure to raise the debt ceiling before the U.S. runs out of available cash and emergency measures would cause an “economic catastrophe.” They then address comments from Stanley Druckenmiller who said, the economy is teetering on the edge of a recession and he forecast a “hard landing.” He predicted the downturn will occur during the current quarter.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Friday’s jobs report which showed that U.S. hiring and workers’ pay gains accelerated in April, a sign of labor-market resilience. With nonfarm payrolls coming in much higher than Wall Street’s forecast and the unemployment rate falling back to a multi-decade low of 3.4%, will the Federal Reserve have to raise rates in June. They then talk about how rising interest rates have been one of the big factors behind the turmoil in the banking sector and whether the banking sector’s problems are over.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the idea that there is a bubble in commercial real estate and the forecast from Morgan Stanley that market prices could plunge as much as 40% over the next two years, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis. This throws another wrinkle into small and regional banks that are the biggest source of credit to the $20 trillion market and hold 80% of the sector’s outstanding debt. They then talk about JP Morgan Chase’s takeover of First Republic Bank and if there are more bank failures hiding in plain sight.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how despite the market’s rally after Silicon Valley Bank went belly up, there are signs that a significant credit crunch is coming and liquidity is drying up. It’s been more than 10 years since it’s been this hard to borrow money, say small businesses. The Fed said banks have tightened lending standards, distressed corporate debt has rocketed 300%, bond and loan defaults are rising, and corporate bankruptcies are surging. They then discuss Elon Musk’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. Last Thursday, Tesla’s earnings sank 24%, missing Wall Street’s expectations, then as a perfect metaphor, one of his Space X rockets blew up.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how earnings season will provide the next test of how companies have managed headwinds like banking system stress, higher rates and slowing demand. All lead indicators point to a deeper profit recession than expected. They then discuss Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett, who said Wall Street’s attitude toward stocks is the most negative in several years. He said the recent rally will fail and that investors should avoid U.S. stocks as expectations of a recession have become universal. He’s also very negative on technology shares, which he thinks will come under pressure from increased regulatory scrutiny and higher interest rates.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry examine the 15% drop in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond over the last four weeks and what that means for equities. They then look at the dollar’s 14% decline since September when it hit parity with the Euro, and what it means for stocks, bonds and rate hikes.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the health of the U.S. Shadow Banking system and private equity firms following the slew of recent bank failures. A recent Bank of America survey found that investors’ biggest concern in the wake of these failures is a systemic credit event that could be caused by the shadow banking system. They then address the Bank of Japan appointing a new leader who is expected to raise Japanese interest rates. They discuss if this could cause Japanese investors, the biggest foreign holders of U.S. government bonds, to sell those bonds.
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It looks like the turmoil in the U.S. banking sector is spreading to Europe. Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Deutsche Bank’s 10% decline last week as the cost of insuring its debt against default surged, which sparked a selloff in European bank stocks. They then address how this turbulence is affecting money market funds as investors to flee to cash in the biggest rush since the onset of the pandemic. Last week, global cash funds posted inflows of nearly $143 billion, the largest since March 2020 and money market funds saw $238 billion in new cash in just two weeks.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the UBS takeover of its troubled rival, Credit Suisse, in a quickly arranged deal on Sunday, and ask if this will shore up the global financial system? This takeover is the most consequential fallout from the implosions of both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank just a week ago. They then address the questions on many people’s minds- is this 2008 all over again? Will more banks fail? Are the major banks safe?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why regulators closed Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and took control of its deposits in what is the largest U.S. bank failure since the global financial crisis 15 years ago, and the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history. They also discuss the closing of Signature Bank on Sunday, making it the third-largest bank failure. Then they evaluate what all this means for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. Last week, the Fed said it will continue to aggressively raise rates to curb inflation. But the problems in the banking sector could change all that.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about why bond yields are rising again after the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit 4% last week. Then they discuss the saber rattling going on between China and the U.S. after the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon and how this will affect the equity and fixed income markets.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up all this year’s gains. Partly it’s hotter-than-expected inflation numbers, but also valuations. They talk valuations and Bloomberg saying, “the S&P 500 is roughly 20% more expensive than it ever was during the Internet bubble.” After that they consider the storms hitting California and whether the wreckage has a big impact on the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the Big Oil companies reporting that their profits doubled last year in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and what the outlook for oil is in 2023. They then discuss the CPI, retail sales, and wholesale prices coming in higher than expected in January and where they see inflation going for the rest of the year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the Federal Reserve’s schedule of rate hikes after Citigroup’s head of Asia Pacific trading strategies said the Fed might raise rates to 6% instead of 5%. Even Neel Kashkari, the president of the Fed Bank of Minneapolis and Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, agree that rates will rise above 5%. They then discuss the Citigroup strategist’s prediction that fair value on the S&P 500 will drop below 3,500 this year.
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Last week, the January jobs report showed an increase of 517,000 jobs sending the unemployment rate down to 3.4%, its lowest rate since 1969. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what this means for the Federal Reserve’s schedule of rate hikes and what it means for the stock and bond markets. They then discuss what poor earnings from the tech sector — Amazon and Google posted ho-hum earnings and Apple posted its worst quarter since 2016 — means for the economy and the stock market?
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January has been the tech sector’s best month since July. The Nasdaq 100 Stock Index is up nearly 11% since the year began, double the rise in the S&P 500 Index. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why investors are driving the market higher while analysts say this may be the worst earnings season for tech since 2016.They discuss what’s going on in the tech sector and what are investors thinking. They then discuss why the dollar has fallen for four straight months to a seven-month low and what this means for the economy.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry examine the debt ceiling debate going on in Washington and what it means for the markets and people’s money if it continues to drag on. They also look at the current state of the housing market, which plunged to a 12-year low in December. With housing resales down 34% year over year, they consider whether the market is close to finding a floor or beginning a sharp correction.
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Last year was one of the worst years on record for the bond market. Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether bonds will see a rebound this year. Will it be just Treasury bonds or corporates as well? And what about high yield bonds? They then discuss why the price of copper and other metals are surging. Is this related to China? And they tell us what their prediction for where metals are going in 2023.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss whether the classic 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) is still a valid strategy for investing and if index investing is a losing proposition. They then discuss the 72% plunge Tesla’s stock has experienced over the past year. They look at whether Tesla needs to fall more, if it will fall more, or if the stock is now a buying opportunity.
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As we start a new year, we present our annual “Firm, Economic, and Market Update”.
2022 has been quite a turbulent year. Events such as the Russia-Ukraine war, global inflation, the quickest series of Federal Reserve rate hikes ever, and devastating natural disasters all have weighed on the markets and global economy.
2022 saw stocks and bonds both decline for each of the first three quarters. This has not been seen in 50 years. The rise in interest rates and compression in equity valuations stem from the worst inflation in 40 years, even as earnings estimates improved for the first 6 months of the year. High Price to Earnings (PE) stocks struggled mightily as interest rates went up during the past 12 months. Volatility was at historic highs for both stocks and bonds.
Perhaps the single biggest change to the financial markets in 2022 was the transition from quantitative easing (low interest rates) to quantitative tightening (high interest rates). The era of free money is over. Interest expense will inevitably consume a greater share of income.
In the attached video, we run down our 2022 forecast, our “report card” (05:00). In line with our long-term average, out of 13 predictions we made this year, we saw 11.5 come true.
As we look to 2023 the most important question is will we have a recession? The answer to us is actually quite straightforward: if inflation starts to ease as economic activity slows, then no. Interest rates will stop rising and recessions, where and if they occur, will likely be modest. If inflation does not slow, all bets are off.
Our Team at Focused Wealth Management is in a unique position to provide financial clarity to our clients at the most critical of times. We value the opportunity to provide guidance, advice, and support during these volatile markets and are proud to meet our clients’ financial goals.
Best regards,
Philip J. DeAngelo
Managing Director, Focused Wealth Management
Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss tax loss harvesting, the process where you sell securities that have losses for the year to offset capital gains produced from selling other securities during the year. This is a great way to lower your tax bill. They talk about what moves you should make this week. They then discuss when the new rules for taking Required Minimum Distributions, or RMDs, from IRAs and 401k plans. They also explain how to determine how much your RMD should be and when you should take it.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the consumer price index, a key inflation marker, coming in lower than expected and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen predicting that inflation will be much lower by the end of next year. They then discuss when will the market stop focusing on the Federal Reserve and interest rates and move back to focusing on corporate earnings.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how much higher the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate and whether this will cause the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond to rise back above 4%. They then discuss the state of high-interest corporate bonds and whether this is a good time to buy or has the moment passed?
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In the wake of Monday’s 1.5% drop across the markets on news of protests in China around its Covid restrictions, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why China’s problems are affecting U.S. stocks. They then discuss if the Federal Reserve has enough cash on hand to fund the total losses it will incur for all the asset liquidation to which it is committed.
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In the wake of Goldman Sachs predicting the bear market will last into 2023, and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester not ready to stop advocating for rate hikes, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss their view of the economy right now. They then discuss if the holiday shopping season will be good or bad for the retail sector.
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In the wake of massive tech industry layoffs at places such as Amazon, Facebook and Twitter, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how this will change the tech industry and whether this is a good time to invest in the sector. They then discuss the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency exchange FTX and how it’s demise may cause a liquidity crisis throughout the other financial markets.
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In the wake of last week’s rate hike by the Federal Reserve, Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss how much higher they think Fed will raise interest rates? They then discuss why Apple’s stock has fallen 10% this month, even as the broad market was rallying.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss where people who plan on retiring with just an IRA or 401K account as their primary source of income should be putting their money today? They then discuss whether the Fed will stop raising interest rates after Wednesday’s meeting or will rate hikes continue considering the high level of inflation in the US.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why market participants said the Chinese market is “uninvestible,” and why Chinese stocks tanked after President Xi wrapped up the Communist Party Congress by paving the way for an unprecedented third term as president. They then discuss whether the market has priced in a long, deep recession or it’s just “whistling past the graveyard?”
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what’s next for the chaotic British bond markets after the Bank of England announced its second expansion of its emergency bond-buying operation in two days and if U.S. investors should buy British bonds. They then look at JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon, who told CNBC that he thinks the S&P 500 could fall another 20% and that the U.S. and global economy could fall into recession by middle of next year depending on how the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, the unknown effects of quantitative tightening and the war in Ukraine. Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com. As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss why the market had one of its biggest one-day rallies after the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation is not under control and the feeling that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates again. Then they look at the situation with investment bank Credit Suisse. The company looks to have a huge capital shortfall in the near future. Should we be concerned that this could be just like the fall of Lehman Brothers?
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Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss what’s next for the British markets after the financial mishaps of new Prime Minister Liz Truss. Last week, she issued a radical economic plan of tax cuts for the rich. Then after the pound hit historic lows, Truss reversed herself on Monday. They then look at the dismal month of September and the rally in stocks that started the fourth quarter. They analyze whether the markets have hit a bottom and are on the upswing.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry examine why the stock market doesn't like rising interest rates. However rising rates lift the yields on bonds. They then talk about the bond-yield bull market forming and the terrific yields in credit that need to be taken advantage now. They discuss whether now is the time to start buying bonds and which ones are best.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry examine the tax cuts proposal from Liz Truss, the United Kingdom’s new prime minister. The amount of borrowing that will be needed to pay for these tax cuts sent the British 5-year gilt up half a percentage point and pushed the British pound to a 37-year low against the dollar. And in the wake of the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new low for the year, they then examine how long this recession should last and how much lower we should expect the stock market to go.
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On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation is running hotter than expected. Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about what we should expect from the Federal Reserve this month and how high the Federal Funds Rate will go. They then look at the railroad unions' threats to go on strike this week, and break down how this will affect the U.S. markets and economy.
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With the summer over and the market entering the dangerous months of September and October, Phil, Mike, and Larry break down what we should expect to happen in the last third of the year and if people should go to cash.
They then look at the United Kingdom’s turnover in leadership. With Liz Truss expected to be named the new Prime Minister, what kind of policies is she looking to implement, how will this affect the U.S. markets and is now the time to buy British bonds.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down Friday’s comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on why the Fed plans to keep raising interest rates, and the market’s reaction. They then look at why the current recession doesn’t feel like a recession and what should we expect for the rest of the year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down what the cooling housing market and the decline in existing house sales means for the market. They then look at the current market rally to see if it has legs, the recent positive reports on inflation and whether this will stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates and where should people be investing their money now.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down if the U.S. is really in a recession and how much higher the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. They then look at the new Inflation Reduction Act passed by the Senate last weekend, which contains corporate tax hikes and climate change laws, and discuss how it will affect the stock market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry look at the recent upturn in the market and examine if the market is bouncing off the bottom of the recent correction or is this just a bear rally? They also explain how do do tax-loss harvesting by selling losers and using them to offset taxes.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down why the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has fallen from its high near 3.5% to 2.8% today, even as the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates 75 basis points at its next meeting. They then forecast what the stock market will do after the Fed rate hike and the rest of the year.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down the first wave of this quarter’s earnings results and give their view on what’s going on in the economy. They then try to determine if the stock market has hit bottom and where the investing opportunities are at the moment.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry review the strength in the US dollar and outline the global economic implications this has. They also take a look and review their outlook and the changing dynamics of the housing market.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry provide an update on European inflation and economic trends. They follow up with a review of last week’s economic data in the US which includes 2nd quarter GDP pushing deeper into negative territory.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry provide their opinion on when banks will start to increase their rate of deposits in the midst of the Fed rate hiking cycle. They then provide some insight into their call from May 3rd that the US economy is already in a recession and how to navigate this volatility.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry provide their opinion on the current state of markets and Fed credibility in response to comments made by Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian. They also break down RMD planning options in the face of elevated market volatility.
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This week segment covers:
–The inflation surge and what to do
–Expected Fed rate increases
–Will we see see a 75 basis point raise?
–Bond market buying opportunities with yields crossing 3%
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Phil, Mike, and Larry address both the economic and market impact likely felt by the Fed’s quantitative tightening program. They also evaluate recent write-downs in private equity valuations and give their outlook on the space.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry review their thoughts on the forward outlook in employment trends at this point of the economic cycle. They also provide a final update on corporate profits as the earnings reporting season draws to a close by highlighting a few positive anecdotes that jumped out at them during Q1 earnings.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry evaluate tactical portfolio decisions to make in extremely volatile time periods such as this. They also give some basic personal finance recommendations to consider in a slowing economic environment.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry give their opinion on whether last week’s selling will ultimately mark the bottom for the major averages. They also look at the Fed’s policy of reducing the balance sheet and how that could impact the economy and asset prices.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry break down the implications of last week's Fed rate hike and the market's response to the Fed's actions. They also look ahead to tomorrow's inflation report to break down what to expect and what to do with portfolios.
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Phil, Mike, and Larry take a look at the most important economic data points to evaluate whether we are entering a recession. They also touch on what this means for various asset classes. Secondly, they review the recent volatility through the lens of the financial planning process and what this means for investor portfolios in this particularly difficult time period.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
This week Phil, Mike, and Larry lay out their greatest concern for both stocks and bonds at this juncture. They then look at various performance of assets to determine if there is anywhere to hide in an environment with a hawkish Fed and elevated inflation.
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As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike, and Larry look at private equity as an asset class and their long-term outlook on that investment sector. They also look at the March inflation report and discuss the best asset classes in which to allocate capital in the face of rising inflation.
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As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Bank stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 as of late. Phil, Mike, and Larry provide their explanation of variables behind this. They also give an outlook on sustainable energy sources as an investment opportunity with oil prices on the rise.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike, and Larry take a look at the path of interest rates and what changes, if any, fixed income investors should consider amidst recent bond market volatility. They also provide their opinion on the state of the housing market and whether REITS and homebuilders are attractive asset classes.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike, and Larry look at various technical market indicators and provide an updated outlook on specific sectors of the market and the economy. They also discuss their outlook on bonds and how they’d think about managing volatility in fixed income portfolios given the sharp rise in interest rates.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Special Guest Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney joins Phil, Mike, and Larry to discuss the ongoing situation and response to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. They touch on a number of relevant topics including, sanctions, agriculture, infrastructure, and cybersecurity.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel discuss the yield curve and other economic indicators to assess the overall outlook. Could we see a recession on the horizon? They also touch on the ramifications for the global economy if Russia enters a depression.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel look at the net Russian exposure in ETF’s and assess the underlying prospects for the Russian economy. They also look at sanctions placed on Russia to identify if any opportunities exist in agricultural markets.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel address the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and how that impacts risk assets and investment portfolios. They also review the outlook for European equities and whether prospects have changed in light of recent circumstances.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel address the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. They touch what impact it has on stocks, bonds, and energy prices. They also look at the dividend yield of the S&P 500 relative to the 10 year treasury to assess if any opportunities exist between the two asset classes.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel break down the recent inflation reading and evaluate what contributed to the additional increase. They provide their opinion on what adjustments can be made in bond portfolios as inflation contributes to a jump in rates. With gas prices on the rise, they look into the EV space and provide their thoughts on how to invest in that space.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel take a look at the earnings from Facebook (Meta) and provide their insights after the company set the record for the largest loss of market cap in a single day ever following disappoint results. They also shed light on Amazon’s results. Finally they evaluate the recent rise in interest rates by attempting to evaluate how much higher rates could possibly go with the 10 year treasury nearing the 2.00% threshold.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel review the market’s performance last week as it clawed back to erase a number of significant early morning declines to evaluate whether the correction has further to run. They also discuss portfolio management and financial planning goals that clients should be asking themselves given the market’s start to 2022.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil, Mike and special guest host Lawrence Carrel explain what should investors make of the recent volatility in the markets.
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As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Phil and Mike welcome special guest host Lawrence Carrel as they evaluate the performance and future viability of richly valued SPAC companies and whether short sellers are to blame for the decline in price of some of these new public companies.
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As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.
Special guest David Braun, head of US financial institutions portfolio management at PIMCO, shares his thoughts about expectations for core bonds and PIMCO's outlook for inflation in 2022.
Submit your questions to question@2questiontuesday.com
As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.