Simon and Whiton: Recent Episodes
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Pro-capitalist, anti-woke views on business, stocks, media, and politics—brought to you by Mark Simon and Christian Whiton.
Mark is a longtime media executive and veteran of Asia-Pacific business and finance. Christian is a former diplomat, finance and PR guy.
In this first episode of "Domino Theory," a reboot of "Simon and Whiton," hosts Christian Whiton and Mark Simon, along with guest Steve Yates, delve into Trump as a shock to both parties and Kamala Harris's attempt in 2024 to redo Biden's 2020 basement campaign. Topics include: China's fentanyl war against America, which claimed the life of Steve's daughter, and why many Americans won't face it, what the Chicoms think about the U.S. election, the phony label of "isolationism," whether Taiwan and the Philippines will fight China, the dying media and what will survive, and why people trust comedians more than journalists.
Christian was an official in the Trump and Bush administrations, a finance guy, and the author of “Smart Power: Between Diplomacy and War.” Mark is a longtime media executive, deputy to imprisoned publisher and dissident Jimmy Lai, and a veteran of Asia-Pacific business and private equity. Steve was a deputy national security advisor in the Bush administration, the chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, and has held a number of other positions in government, business, and at think tanks.
Chapters:
00:00 Welcome to Domino Theory
00:44 Kamala’s Failed CNN Interview
06:36 Chicom View of U.S. politics
10:32 Taiwan’s Confusing Politics
20:51 Trump Outside the System, Not Isolationist
26:12 China’s Fentanyl War on the USA
32:09 The Failing Media and Money
38:12 Are Conservatives Succeeding in Media?
43:36 Christian’s Worst Pitch Ever
46:12 Woke Snowflakes in the Newsroom
Could the Philippines and the South China Sea could be a more likely flashpoint for war with China than Taiwan? How China could be set back 20 years in a conflict. Does the CIA’s old SMICE criteria (sex, money, ideology, compromise, ego) apply to U.S. executives who still bend the knee in Beijing? How demographics paint a grim picture for China, a mediocre one for Vietnam, but a good one for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
The liquidation of Evergrande by a Hong Kong court accelerates China's real estate and economic crisis to a new speed, but how does it really affect Chinese individuals and banks? And will the effects impact political stability? But why is no one in the White House seeking to exploit this reality, and would officials in a second Biden term broach a bailout of China and the country's best and brightest make plans to leave? Mark Simon reports from Taipei in a discussion with Christian Whiton in the USA.
Hong Kong outsources torture, Taiwan’s looming election, China’s economy sputters In the trial of Jimmy Lai, is Hong Kong outsourcing witness torture to mainland China? Why are Chinese fleeing to the U.S. border—a fifth column or to reach a land of opportunity? Despite likely victory, why is Taiwan’s DPP sputtering? Why China’s economy is still stagnant and why Beijing packs little punch globally despite top billing.
Taiwan’s ruling DPP party is poor on economics and lacks vision. Taiwan’s economy is stagnant. Its financial system is third rate. The last US bank (Citi) just departed. Can the ruling party salvage the situation? Meanwhile the U.S. presidential election and China’s economic malaise keep getting more interesting and U.S. businesses embarrassed themselves fawning over Xi Jinping in San Francisco.
What Hong Kong’s hysterical and deranged response to a media freedom discussion in Geneva tells us. Can Xi and the CCP escape the demographic and real estate doom loop? Filipino fisherman beat China at sea. Is Jakarta’s carbon exchange for real or just for fun?
Congressional hawks try to sweeten unpopular Ukraine aid with funds for Taiwan, but Taiwan’s history of self-funding is an asset it should preserve. DeSantis over Trump. The semiconductor industry has friends in high (soft-on-China) places. Hunter might not be smoking crack the right way. China’s economic problems mount. Disney’s new management just as woke as the old.
Chicom Committee Chairman Gallagher politely asks what led to Biden admin’s unrequited romancing of China. Who in the administration is calling shots? DeSantis gains momentum on distracted Trump. Parting with Yellen vs. Hunter. How much can you blow on five days in hot Singapore?
Taiwan gets more U.S. attention, but not necessarily the right kind. Elon Musk goes deeper into China. Will he have to sell Tesla to keep SpaceX and Twitter? China’s reopening is overhyped as the economy exhibits major stress. Bud Lite goes woke and broke.
Ron DeSantis has the unconventional idea that our foreign policy should actually have priorities. Chinese CCP boss Xi Jinping goes to Russia amid weakness at home. Taiwanese Vice President William Lai takes a step closer to winning election, but how will he treat business and Beijing?
Why can’t Britain embrace greatness and why is Ukraine getting weapons Taiwan bought from the USA? What demographic decline tells us about China and Japan and what the opposite tells us about Indonesia and the Philippines. Should advanced countries make having kids free?
Taiwan and Japan reopen to most travel, but will business pick up? Does Taiwan prioritize children sufficiently, and do Taiwanese think Americans will really help them in a war? Is Hong Kong going to phony up financial analysis in the name of national security? Christian is just back from Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Taipei.
Chinese protesters take to the streets in Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities. Is this just a flash over COVID restrictions or a harbinger of something deeper? What should the USA and the rest of the free world do? Taiwanese voters send a message to the DPP, the Vatican still romances Beijing, and Jimmy Lai goes on trial again in Hong Kong.
Xi and Trudeau have words in public at G-20 in Bali. Trump is in the race—does China want him there? Labor in Australia disappoints. Are arms for Taiwan are going to Ukraine instead?
Taiwan and the rest of Asia react to the prospect of divided government in the USA. Why Taiwan must ask permission before asking permission to buy arms. Problems with AIT, the de facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan. Vietnam's leader goes to China and the Philippines thinks again about China.
Taiwan and Japan reopen to most travel, but will business pick up? Does Taiwan prioritize children sufficiently, and do Taiwanese think Americans will really help them in a war? Is Hong Kong going to phony up financial analysis in the name of national security? Christian is just back from Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Taipei.
Singapore displaces Hong Kong as the East’s key financial capital. New York still ranked at the top globally but will its politicians ruin that? China wants to have its cake and eat it too. Are Republicans surging as Latinos ditch Dems?
India declines to play along with the Biden administration's joke of an economic framework for Asia and some flee expensive Singapore to work from Bali, but probably not for “naked experience” hotels. Is there a role for special ops in Taiwan and the broader fight looming in the Pacific?
Why China's real estate crisis is a YUGE problem, the US-China accounting agreement flops, Taiwan relies too much on fleeting semiconductor hoopla, and Singapore welcomes you if you're rich.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan; why did Beijing think it could stop the trip? Manufacturing dips in China at the housing industry crisis deepens. Hong Kong goes from bad to worse for business.
Joe Biden tells House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not to go to Taiwan. Will she comply and why the wimpy tone from Biden? Also, China’s real estate crisis deepens and Beijings is cutting is dollar reserves. Will Japan increase its defense budget?
China has an ugly reaction to the assassination of Shinzo Abe, banks start to pull back in Northeast Asia amid slump but Southeast Asia may be a different story. Will Taiwan suffer from semiconductors becoming boring again? Myanmar is back in play.
The bear market continues; is there a refuge? Mark has a plan to fix CNBC with Family Guy. Woke companies alienate anti-abortion employees. Aussies give 70 percent support to nuclear subs. White progressives don’t want armed minorities. China might attack something other than Taiwan first.
Stagflation hits markets, CNN can't recover, WaPo eats it own, Japanese yen collapse, China in a fix, Liz Cheney faces a reckoning from Wyoming voters.
Taiwan never disappoints those expecting disappointment. China hits an inflection point where it probably won’t ever catch the USA. Is beyond-gay Nordstrom selling its overpriced attire to art students? why American companies are out of style in Dubai, and whether Nelson Peltz will de-wokify flagging Unilever.
Why anyone listens to Kurt Campbell and company, what prompted Joe Biden to vow to defend Taiwan, will Bongbong Marcos be an improvement over Duterte in the Philippines, whether Japan will also go to war, the zombie TPP, and what China is up to in the Solomon Islands.
Disney isn’t just, woke, it’s also a horribly run company. Why Elon Musk doesn’t have a PR department. Also, Biden finally announced a trip to Asia, but will it be a nothing burger? Why is the U.S. Trade Representative wasting everyone’s time in East Asia with a woke excuse for a trade framework?
Twitter is an awful company, but Elon Musk may have much bigger plans than what people expect. Is the collapse of the Japanese yen a glitch or a signal of much bigger problems for Japan? Is the USA or China closer to recession, and does anyone in the U.S. government really know what Xi Jinping is facing?
Elon Musk scares the woke censors at Twitter. What ships' captains trading arms for fuel tells us about using ammo for currency if society collapses. Why one shouldn't “buy on the dip” and how to weather stagflation and a bear market. Banking in Singapore and whether the Philippines will hug the panda under new leadership.
Only a handful of Disney employees actually walked out of work to protest the company’s lack of additional activism against Florida. Are the least productive employees the most politically active at work? Why Disney has no talent and what to look for economically as the Ukraine war progresses.
Mark and Christian explore the source of wokism in companies, especially the human resources, public relations, and marketing departments. Does management really have to listen to them? Do Twitter mobs matter? Should you keep employees who want to bring their activism to work?
They also discuss Disney’s wimpy CEO being instructed by his workers to take on Florida’s elected governor and legislature, the difference between dealing with ad departments in America and Asia, and how much you could profit by matching Nancy Pelosi’s “well-informed” investing strategy.
Mark and Christian discuss energy opportunities and possible work-arounds that Russia is likely to use to circumvent sanctions. Which regions benefit and how is China likely to act as the crisis progresses? Biden sends a plane load of squishes to Taiwan to reassure the government. Gold is better than crypto.
Mark and Christian question Eileen Gu’s unpatriotic mantra, "When I’m in the U.S., I’m American, but when I’m in China, I’m Chinese,” as well as an article by Ashley Wong in the New York Times cheering the freestyle skiing gold medalist and suggesting those who disagree are racist. Also discussed is why many Asian-Americans have associated with Democrats despite cultural differences and whether that is changing.
Inflation got worse in January, spooking markets and lowering Joe Biden’s poll numbers further. What are the political and business impacts? Mark and Christian ponder the very limited future of print. "Indonesia’s Donald Trump” goes long on coal and Rio Tinto continues to impress. America’s Donald Trump-led "Truth Social," a project of DWAC, incurs a delay and takes a dive. The olympics aren’t just bad for China, but are particularly bad for NBC. Can they recover?
Can CNN recover now that disastrous Zucker is out, and why the double standard for his paramour? Mark and Christian speculate on the future of CNN under Discovery ownership. Also, will Spotify support Joe Rogan against the cancelistas and was Rogan smart to apologize? They discuss the decision by ABC News to suspend Whoopi Goldberg, why The View is even under the news division, and whether Rachel Maddow’s break from MSNBC is permanent. Equities discussed: DISCA, SPOT, VIAC, DIS, NWSA, AMZN, NYT.
Mark interviews Christian from Singapore, where a common question was whether the USA will defend Taiwan. They discussed who is winning and losing in the region, where the price of oil and gold are headed, and the looming disasters of the Olympics and NBC's coverage.
The Wall Street Journal pretends it hasn't gone woke, but doesn't fool readers. Goldman sparks a selloff in equities and it may be only the beginning. Why did Donald Trump agree to a predictably disastrous interview with leftwing NPR? Russia funds are off on the crisis with Ukraine, but may be poised to bounce back.
NYT buys The Athletic for $550 million, but sports fans might not go for woke sports commentary from an even more woke media property. Is NYT still a buy? Mark and Christian have fun redefining ESG investing. ARKK takes a dive but Rio Tinto looks better and better. Is Tesla in China’s Xinjiang region or CBC in Canada closer to communism?
Intel committed an act of decency regarding slave labor in China, but promptly retracted its statement and apologized to Beijing. Are U.S. companies overestimating China’s economic potential? Spiderman rakes in over $1 billion without the Chinese market, and Indonesian coal miner Adaro goes “green” by building a huge aluminum smelter. WaPo boss Bezos gets filmed canoodling. Is the Russian economy a “buy”?
Senator Manchin’s demur means Dems have only 49 votes at most for a big tax-and-spend package. Omicron rules may drive business and land value to red states. Rio Tinto hires a Canadian Sinophile CEO, but will unwoke mining shareholders tolerate his decisions? NYU impoverishes its grad students and Stephen Spielberg flops with woke West Side Story remake.
Chris Wallace is a lefty establishmentarian, but he doesn’t do woke, and his arrival at CNN has terrified the rank and file. The boss of Discovery, co-owner of CNN with AT&T, may be making his move to shift the network toward the center and hard news. Buzzfeed’s IPO flops hard and its business model depends on rich kids. Inflation drives crypto but probably shouldn’t. Peloton dives again.
CNN’s woes compound for overlords AT&T and Discovery. Trump Media fatally focuses on creating a space instead of content. NBC toadies Beijing—an opportunity for competitors? China forces its companies to delist in New York and switch back to the motherland; now what happens with private equity?
Mark and Christian wonder why Jamie Dimon didn't quit, discuss oil ETFs and what OPEC+ might do, ask why the New York Times doesn't get Chinese coercion of ethnic Chinese, think about profiting from the omicron freakout, and ponder whether people should listen to Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes, formerly of Fox News. Equities discussed: JPM, USO, USL, SKYW, 2603-TW, 2618-TW, NYT.
Mark and Christian discuss what the market might do if it prices in passage of the Democrats spending blowout. CNN insiders are worried about earnings and George Soros is long on Wall Street and financial information. Equities discussed: Exxon, Chevron, MGM Properties, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, IHS Markit, DR Horton, Alibaba, Shell, and Dollar Tree.
Mark and Christian discuss the hyped upcoming "summit" between the boss of China and Joe Biden, Alaska Airlines lectures it customers, Peloton crashes but is still PC, and why Taiwan loses out to everyone on U.S. tariff relief.
Mark and Christian discuss the Republican victory in Virginia and what is means for Democrats and Donald Trump. The FBI hits James O’Keefe of Project Veritas but not Antifa. Will Biden dump Powell as Federal Reserve boss? Why not to give to your alma matter this Christmas.
Mark and Christian discuss rapidly rising energy prices as the elite gather for the COP26 to raise them further, whether Biden is out of touch on the issue, Exxon and other increasingly woke energy companies curtailing development, Saudi Aramco’s big quarter, executives who make the mistake of listening to PR departments, Robinhood’s big miss, and the VanEck Russia ETF (RSX).
Mark and Christian discuss doubts about Trump’s new media venture. Mark is pessimistic about Taiwan’s political strategy and ability to reopen. Christian is bullish on Russia and energy, especially RSX. Mark talks up blue chips that trade in Taiwan, including TSMC, banks, and Wan Hai Lines. What is Beijing’s plan to attack Taiwan, and will it ever come to that?
Mark and Christian discuss Goldman Sachs’s love affair with Beijing and whether their love will be returned. There are growing signs that third-quarter GDP growth in the USA will be a big disappointment, which will further hurt the Biden agenda. Will Dave Chappelle ever get another Netflix special and will Taiwan ever reopen to international travel?
Mark and Christian discuss China’s real estate sector as it faces crisis with contagion from Evergrande spreading. Marines turn up in Taiwan. Is it time to bail out of all Chinese investments? The dollar bounces even as other countries raise rates. Also: the demise of Saturday Night Live and National Review, and the upcoming revival of Kids in the Hall.
Mark and Christian discuss how Biden’s much-hyped trade announcement with China underwhelms and looks like weakness right as Beijing threatens Taiwan. Evergrande gets a very Chinese bailout from a Hong Kong-listed company and Tesla redefines overpriced. JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon gets a payday because he deserves one.
Mark and Christian discuss the release of Huawei’s CFO from Canada and other signs the Biden administration is going soft on China. They also discuss Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS) facing a shakedown in Macao and Japan saying no to gambling. Will Comcast (CMCSA)-unit MSNBC pull off a transition and is CBS ripe for one?
Mark and Christian discuss Evergrande, Fox News, Roger Ailes, Greg Gutfeld, Darden Restaurants, Amazon, Xi Jinping's left turn, and the woke attack on James Bond.
Mark Simon and Christian Whiton discuss a possible Evergrande bailout, the exposure of U.S. markets to China, red flags with Robinhood (HOOD) and Revolut, U.S. travel reopening to Europe, the Carmine kerfuffle, and why Murdoch is bringing Piers Morgan to the New York Post.