Hypergrowth Investing: Recent Episodes
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Hypergrowth Investing is a weekly podcast that picks the brain of investment analyst Luke Lango. Each week Luke will take an in depth look at the trending tech and investment innovations. Electric vehicles, cryptocurrency, the metaverse, nothing is off limits in this innovative new podcast!
Folks, you've made it to the FINAL (for now) episode of Hypergrowth Investing ... and it's a bitter sweet moment. Sweet because the markets are up; bitter because we have to leave you fine folks. But there are still places you can go to get Luke's whip-smart research!
Including:
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Crypto Investor: https://orders.investorplace.com/?cid=MKT607059&eid=MKT735627
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We hope you enjoy this final episode. And maybe we'll hear from you again in one of our premium services. Until then, thanks for watching and happy investing!
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:45 - Fan Love
00:04:04 - How the Fed Killed Inflation
00:14:44 - Crypto Plays 2023 and Beyond
00:20:45 - The Metaverse is not Next
00:22:37 - EVs are the Future
00:27:37 - Fan Love
00:28:45 - Innovation Investor
00:35:11 - Breakout Trader
00:40:35 - Early Stage Investor
00:41:28 - Crypto Investor & Ultimate Crypto
00:44:10 - Daily 10X
00:49:40 - Fan Love
00:50:14 - Thank You HGI Investors
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Welcome to the Hypergrowth Investing podcast, where we discuss the latest news and trends in the stock market! After you digest this week's podcast, be sure to download our FREE research report on the 5 Hypergrowth Stocks to Buy in 2023: https://signup.investorplace.com/?cid=MKT694229&eid=MKT732247
In this episode, Luke gets candid (while standing) about the following topics:
Earning Season
We analyze the earnings reports of some of the biggest companies in the market, such as Netflix and Tesla. Bottom line: earnings over the next couple of weeks will make us or break us. For Netflix, the thing to keep in mind is its password crackdown. And, while everyone's cutting costs, Tesla's cutting prices. So no wonder its margins got hit! Hear more of Luke's take and how he thinks markets will react to earnings in the podcast.
Industry Rapid Fire
Okay, showtime! Luke goes down the line here, giving his quick take on some of the hottest EV stocks in the market, such as Lucid Motors, Rivian and Fisker. How do they compare to the industry leader, Tesla? Next, Luke talks clean energy stocks. What's their outlook and their challenges in Q2? We also give our quick take on some of the major oil and gas stocks, the most popular consumer stocks in the market, some of the dominant advertising stocks, the top enterprise software stocks, the key semiconductor stocks, leading e-commerce stocks, travel stocks, China stocks, notable emerging market stocks, and sports betting stocks.
Last but far from least, Luke will answer the most pressing fan questions you've submitted over the past week. Was your question answered? Tune in to find out!
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:24: Earning Season Continues
00:17:31: How will the Market React to Earnings?
00:26:36: Industry Rapid Fire: Electric Vehicle Stocks
00:31:33: Industry Rapid Fire: Clean Energy Stocks
00:32:04: Industry Rapid Fire: Oil and Gas Stocks
00:36:17: Industry Rapid Fire: Consumer Defensive and Staple Stocks
00:37:14: Industry Rapid Fire: Consumer Discretionary Stocks
00:39:18: Industry Rapid Fire: Advertising Stocks
00:41:42: Industry Rapid Fire: Enterprise Software Stocks
00:42:43: Industry Rapid Fire: Semiconductor Stocks
00:43:56: Industry Rapid Fire: E-Commerce Stocks
00:44:40: Industry Rapid Fire: Travel Stocks
00:45:32: Industry Rapid Fire: China Stocks
00:46:11: Industry Rapid Fire: Emerging Market Stocks
00:46:40: Industry Rapid Fire: Sports Betting Stocks
00:48:10: Fan Questions
00:52:47: Closing Thoughts
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Welcome to another week of Hypergrowth Investing, folks! With earnings season underway, weāre laser-focused on companiesā first-quarter results and what that means for stocks going forward. In fact, you can find out more in our FREE research report: https://signup.investorplace.com/?cid=MKT694229&eid=MKT732247
As weāve mentioned previously, in the first three months of this year, both the labor market and consumer spending were quite resilient. And those two factors should support strong revenues in the first quarter of 2023. Consequently, we think weāre going to see a lot of revenue beats this earnings season.
At the same time, weāve seen a lot of companies announce layoffs, shelve certain projects, and implement various other cost-cutting measures to shore up their spending. And those developments should support better-than-expected margins this quarter.
Better-than-expected revenues + better-than-expected margins = better-than-expected earnings.
So, if weāre likely to see pretty robust Q1 earnings, the real question is, what will the guidance look like for Q2 and FY23?
Right now, analyst estimates are stabilizing around $218 per share for the S&P 500 for 2023 and $240 per share for the S&P for 2024. Will those numbers rise or fall? Thatās what will determine the short-term trajectory for stocks.
Weāre optimistic that earnings will help to push EPS higher, creating a path for stocks to do the same. And with more soft inflation data and a Fed pause on deck, stocks have the potential to reach new cycle highs into the summer. Get ready for a rally!
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
02:31 - Macro Focus
13:29 - Earnings Season
18:35 - Sectors to Watch
19:57 - Market Breadth
25:42 - Coppock Curve
32:20 - EV Titans Fall
39:42 - Fluence Stock
41:43 - The End of At-Home Fitness?
46:26 - Housing Rebound
48:02 - Stoned Ape Theory
52:37 - Invest in India?
54:44 - Fan Questions
56:41 - Closing Thoughts
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Itās that time again, folks. Another thrilling earnings season is nearly upon us! Weāll soon find out how companies have crushed it in the first quarter of 2023. And Luke has some bold predictions for these upcoming earnings reports.
He thinks earnings will blow past expectations, mostly thanks to the smart cost-cutting strategies companies have implemented over the past few months. While the economy was struggling at the start of the year, business leaders didnāt sit back and wait. They took action and revamped their budgets to cope with the uncertain environment.
Now revenues are looking solid, but Wall Street is still pessimistic about earnings because of shrinking margins.
But Lukeās not buying it. He believes profit margins will bounce back in 2023 as inflationary pressures ease. And as companies continue to reduce their expenses and optimize operations, they will unlock positive operating expense (opex) leverage, which will likely lead to robust operating margin expansion in 2023.
That's why Luke anticipates some impressive upside surprises in this earnings season. And stocks should soar as a result.
If youāre new to the Hypergrowth Investing podcast, we publish weekly on Wednesday at 5 p.m. Eastern. Featuring Aaron Davis, Luke Lango deftly talks topics such as āWhat Went Wrong at Silicon Valley Bankā and āWhy SoFi Stock Is Melting Up Amid the Banking Meltdown.ā
Our podcastās 25,000 subscribers have said Luke has āimpressive perception,ā is āvery good at what [he] does,ā and is ā[the] best out there.ā
Check it out for yourself and drop us a line in the comment section below!
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:22 - Goldilocks Jobs Report
00:09:38 - Reinflation Pressure
00:14:25 - Banking Crisis Update
00:16:19 - Fed Pivot
00:22:03 - Earnings Predictions
00:26:48 - Housing Stocks
00:32:25 - EVs Go Mainstream
00:37:48 - Symbotic Stock
00:47:11 - Crypto Check-In
00:50:21 - Fan Questions
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After analyzing this latest round of employment data, itās clear to see that the labor market is substantially weakening. February job openings crashed. Layoffs are continuing to pile up. Jobless claims in the most economically sensitive states are on the rise ā and usually, jobless claim spikes in these states precede nationwide claim spikes. At this point, the labor market is obviously deteriorating. However, itās not yet dying. And that offers a āsweet spotā ā a narrow window for the Fed to guide the economy to a soft landing.
Adding to our conviction is the fact that financial stress is also high right now. Treasury yields are plunging, indicating that bond investors are preparing for the financial markets to get tight. Credit and yield spreads are widening, and bank lending volume is collapsing. Plus, on Tuesday, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said that the banking crisis is not over yet ā and thatās from someone who endured the 2008 financial crisis, so weāre inclined to heed this warning.
Given these macro developments, the Fed has ample reason to smash the pause button on its rate-hike campaign. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia just paused, as did the Bank of Canada. Whenever those central banks pause, the U.S. Federal Reserve does, too. And historically speaking, after a Fed pause, stocks take off like a rocket.
So, what does Luke like right now ahead of that incoming mega rally? Hydrogen, EVs, and Big Tech.
Top Industries to Invest In: Hydrogen Stocks
Now, the hydrogen market has struggled lately, putting a hurting on one of our favorite companies ā Plug Power (PLUG). And thatās because this market is developing much more slowly than most anticipated. Despite this, the space is still growing quickly, and electrolyzer shipments are expected to double or triple here in 2023.
Nothing about the bull case has changed. The world is still moving to replace natural gas with hydrogen power. And legislation continues to develop, helping to accelerate this shift.
Further, Big Oil is moving into the hydrogen space. Thereās tons of demand for this fuel in Europe. And by summer, production tax credits for green hydrogen will come into focus ā the first of its kind here in the U.S.
The long-term demand for hydrogen power is extremely robust, so hydrogen is a great play if you can afford to hold on for the long haul.
Top Industries to Invest In: EV Stocks
Like hydrogen, electric vehicle (EV) stocks continue to struggle. While Tesla (TSLA), Rivian (RIVN), Nio (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and others released positive updates, their stocks dropped in response. We think this weird price action is a result of reemerging recession fears.
After all, the auto market is not recession-resilient. Who knows how EVs will sell if the economy slows and interest rates remain high ā especially because electric vehicles are expensive. But for us, this short-term risk doesnāt matter; weāre long EVs.
Rivian, Fisker (FSR), and Lucid (LCID) will sell every car they make. Theyāve all got reservation backlogs, so demand is a non-issue. And each has a unique value proposition that could help them to become leaders in this industry.
If youāre in EVs for the long term, this seems like a fantastic buying opportunity.
Top Industries to Invest In: Big Tech Stocks
And Big Tech as a safety-net trade has definitely continued. The Nasdaq is showing alpha every single day. And now, the Nasdaq-100 has officially entered a new bull market after rallying 20% off its December lows.
Names like Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) are leading these rallies. And these stocks are fairly recession-resilient ā weāll still all use Google, scroll on Facebook and Instagram, and watch Netflix during a recession. Plus, theyāll all benefit from lower Treasury yields.
We think this dynamic will work for the foreseeable future.
šTimestampsš
00:03:18 - Oil to $100?
00:14:54 - Economic Triumvirate
00:21:12 - The Housing Market Is Back
00:27:21 - The TikTok Ban Is Happening
00:35:22 - What's Going On With Hydrogen?
00:40:09 - What's Going On With EVs?
00:44:24 - Safety in Big Tech
00:53:04 - Why Symbotic Is on Fire
01:03:15 - Fan Questions
01:05:02 - Closing Thoughts
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This week, weāre starting off with one of our all-time favorites ā SoFi (SOFI). This company is not only surviving, but thriving in the midst of a banking crisis that has shaken the industry.
If youāre not familiar with this name, SoFi is a fintech powerhouse that offers a wide range of financial products and services, from loans and investing to banking and insurance. It has a loyal customer base that uses its super app for all their financial needs. And unlike traditional banks, SoFi has no branches, no legacy systems, and no regulatory headaches.
Weāve always called SoFi the āAmazon of Financeā because of its all-in-one super app. And it seems the parallels are getting stronger with this banking crisis. Amazon (AMZN) didnāt start its e-commerce takeover until the sector had a major crisis ā the dot-com crash. When countless internet startups went bust, hoards of consumers migrated to Amazon.com. The company gained tons of market share and continued to grow responsibly as its competitors went bankrupt. And thatās kind of what weāre seeing with SoFi right now.
And much like Amazon during the dot-com bubble, SoFi is well-positioned amid the turmoil in the banking sector. Youāve probably heard about the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the near-collapse of Credit Suisse (CS) and First Republic (FRC), and the massive deposit outflows from many other regional banks. These events have eroded consumer confidence and trust in the banking system, and have created an opportunity for SoFi to gain market share and grow its deposits.
For its part, SoFi has seen no deposit outflow, and CEO Anthony Noto even said he expects deposit growth to be on par or better than it was last quarter. In fact, SoFi recently announced that it has increased its FDIC insurance coverage from $250,000 to $2 million per account ā 8X higher than the national average. This move shows that SoFi is serious about protecting its customersā money and providing them with peace of mind. And as a result, SOFI stock has been soaring, while most bank stocks have been tanking.
While its competitors are struggling, SoFi is thriving in spite of the chaos. We expect that the companyās growth will accelerate because of the banking crisis. This is an āAmazon momentā for the upstart fintech ā a chance to capitalize on a crisis and emerge as a dominant player in the financial industry. We expect SoFi to continue to innovate, expand, and deliver strong results in 2023 and beyond. Thatās why weāre bullish on SOFI stock and we think you should be too.
Thanks for watching Hypergrowth Investing. Donāt forget to like, subscribe, and hit the bell icon for more videos like this one. See you next time!
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:15 The Amazon of Finance
00:05:42 Regional Bank Opportunities
00:12:06 Fed Update
00:16:39 Inflation Indicators
00:24:11 Shift in 2023
00:29:02 What's Going On With EVs?
00:33:39 Fan Questions
00:38:06 Closing Thoughts
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In a rocky macro environment like the one we find ourselves in today, many are feeling the heat.
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As cracks start to form in the banking sector, investors are fleeing riskier assets to play defense instead.
But despite the widespread fear and macro risks, there are still ways to make great money in the stock market this year. Weāve got our sights set on four promising sectors ā our Big 4: housing, clean energy, self-driving, and enterprise software.
Housing is top of mind right now because Februaryās home sales data was just released. And weāve got one word to describe it ā boom! Existing home sales were expected to rise about 5% month-over-month in February, and they popped 15% ā three times what they were supposed to and the biggest jump in sales since July 2020, when we were climbing out of the COVID crash. And itās all thanks to the decline in mortgage rates. We think those rates will keep rolling over as the Fed nears the end of its rate-hiking cycle. That should spark continued growth in the housing market.
Indeed, housing stocks have been on fire lately. And we think theyāll sustain that strength for the rest of the year.
Now, how about clean energy? Itās been on a bit of a downtrend. But we think now itās time to buy the dip and get aggressive once again. President Biden OKed a proposed oil drilling project in Alaska, and that made folks anxious that the U.S. government isnāt as gung-ho on clean energy as they thought. But, in fact, we view this as a positive development. The government realized that clean energy still needs some help from oil and gas, and we expect this approval will give the entire energy sector a boost, clean energy included.
Plus, while lots of clean energy funding was tied up in Silicon Valley Bank, thereās been a robust bidding war for those assets ever since the firmās collapse. It seems this ship will right itself. And the sectorās recent selloff is offering a fantastic buying opportunity.
Now onto self-driving stocks ā itās no surprise that weāre really bullish on self-driving for 2023. Baidu (BIDU) just announced the rollout of its self-driving robotaxi service Apollo Go in Beijing. That marks the third Chinese city itās expanded this service to. Autonomous delivery services are up and running in Texas and California. Luminar (LAZR) just struck a huge deal with Mercedes-Benz (MBGAF). And Innoviz (INVZ) also announced its own major deal with Volkswagen (VWAGY). Indeed, thereās a ton of good momentum going in the self-driving industry.
The sectorās major hurdle now is the cost to integrate high-quality tech into cars. But we believe the disinflation weāre seeing here in 2023 will help to push those input costs lower. And that should really help self-driving stocks to catch a bid this year.
And finally, enterprise software ā there are two main types in this stack. Youāve got revenue-boosting software and cost-cutting software; and weāre fans of the latter. The theme weāre seeing in recent earnings reports is that companies arenāt altogether killing their spending, but they are cautious. And in tougher macro environments where businesses are neither failing nor thriving, companies will continue to spend on things that boost efficiency, like cost-cutting software.
And right now, enterprise software stocks are about as cheap as theyāve ever been. This is a really good play for 2023.
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
02:21 - Fed Day
18:53 - The Ultimate Contrarian Buy Signal
25:26 - Don't Be a "Rear-View" Investor
31:03 - What Could Knock Me Off the Bull
34:06 - The Big 4 of 2023
43:18 - Why You're Safe In Regional Banks
48:05 - Steady Eddie Techies
53:50 - Crypto Check-In
58:24 - Fan Questions
1:02:33 - Closing Thoughts
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hashtags
Welcome, folks, to another episode of the Hypergrowth Investing podcast!
This week, weāll be discussing the elephant in the room ā the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and its implications for the markets.
So what happened?
SVBās failure was caused by a classic bank run, but this alone is not enough to bring down a bank, especially one as prestigious in technology as SVB.
Rather, the run on SVB was a symptom of deeper issues ā namely, two unique problems that arose from SVBās very niche, exclusive focus on the startup tech sector. Weāll delve into these issues and explore what they mean for the future of the markets.
What Happened to Silicon Valley Bank?
The bank saw rapid growth in deposits amid the tech boom of 2020 and ā21. And due to regulations put in place after 2008, SVB had to back up all those deposits with high-quality assets, which mostly comprise U.S. Treasuries. So, in 2020 and ā21, SVB bought a bunch of U.S. Treasuries with its customersā deposits.
Given the Fedās rapid rate-hiking cycle, U.S. Treasuries have since lost significant value. Consequently, SVB has been sitting on massive unrealized losses in its bond portfolio. Under typical operating circumstances, those unrealized losses are manageable because SVB can just hold the Treasuries to maturity and cash out without recognizing any real loss.
However, in stressed operating circumstances wherein customer deposits dwindle and SVB needs to raise cash, the bank is forced to sell those bonds, and the unrealized loss becomes a realized loss.
Thatās exactly what happened. Over the past 12 months, venture funding for tech startups dried up. SVBās customers were no longer seeing lots of cash inflow. In fact, very little cash was coming in the door. But those startups were still running businesses that required funds to keep the lights on, so cash flow going out of SVB accounts was still very high.
Very little cash in, lots of cash out ā obviously, that is an unsustainable situation, so SVB was forced to sell its bond portfolio to raise the funds necessary to keep up.
The result? The company suffered a multi-billion-dollar loss on that bond portfolio. In order to recoup those losses, SVB tried to raise outside capital via share offerings. That didnāt work. No capital came to the rescue. So, the federal government swooped in and took over.
What Comes Next?
But remember: SVB was forced to cash out early because of its unique and exclusive focus on the most rate-sensitive part of the economy ā early-stage tech startups. Since essentially all of its customers saw their funds dry up over the past 12 months, SVB saw its deposits start to dwindle quite rapidly. Yet, cash needs of those customers were not dwindling, leaving the company with a massive imbalance that it needed to fill.
So, this appears to be a problem unique to SVB. This is idiosyncratic ā not systemic.
SVBās collapse is a big warning shot to the Fed. Fed rate-hike cycles are like bulls running through china shops ā they both keep going until something breaks. And something significant has broken.
And what broke SVB could potentially break other banks ā bigger banks ā if the Fed keeps its foot on the rate-hike pedal. But weāre confident the central bank will heed that warning.
A pause is coming ā and that means a major market rally likely is, too.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:41 - Silicon Valley Bank: What Happened?
00:23:07 - Government Intervention
00:32:08 - Fed Signals to Watch
00:36:17 - SVB Impact on Rest of 2023
00:39:25 - The Bearish Outlook
00:44:10 - Fan Questions
00:47:29 - Closing Thoughts
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siliconvalleybank #SVB
Welcome, folks, to another episode of our Hypergrowth Investing podcast! Last week, we talked a lot about AI, but today, weāre getting right into the macroeconomic weeds to break down our base-case outlook for stocks over the next few months.
Spoiler alert: While the markets are wavering thanks to a hawkish Fed, weāre still preparing for a massive bull market runā¦ and Iāll tell you why.
Last week, stocks tested and bounced off of some critical technical levels. And we believe that was the start of a big short-term burst higher for stocks in March and April. Plus, we view this bounce as proof that the rally weāve had off of the October 2022 lows is, in fact, the start of a new bull market.
There are three elements to this bull thesis ā fundamentals, technicals, and positioning.
Letās start with fundamentals.
A lot of people are worried about inflation, rate hikes, a slowing economy, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4%. But in reality, these trends are shifting course in a favorable direction. Though the decline is a choppy one, inflation is coming down.
Demand and supply are normalizing to pre-pandemic levels. And with a slowing ā but not dying ā consumer and rate hikes from the Fed, this disinflation will likely continue into 2024 and ā25.
The Federal Reserve is a bit of a wild card here. However, itās aware that inflation is falling and is likely to move forward with rate hikes at a slow and steady pace. Plus, the labor market is not weakening in a way thatās indicative of a collapse, so weāre confident that the Fed will be able to pull off a soft landing.
Itās true that the equity risk premium (ERP) ā the spread between the S&P 500ās forward earnings yield and the 10-year Treasury yield ā is the lowest itās been in several years. But given the stable string of recent earnings, todayās ERP is historically normal, and weāre confident that stocks are fairly valued. Earnings and P/E multiples suggest that stocks have room to rally over the next nine months.
Now to technicals:
Stocks held the 200-day moving average last week. They held the uptrend line from October 2022ās rally. And they bounced off the resistance line that acted as the ceiling for stocks during the 2022 bear market. Whenever stocks turn resistance to support, it means a trend reversal is underway. And they just turned a year-long resistance level into support ā that is supremely bullish.
Every time stocks were in a bear market, then bounced above and stayed above the 200-day moving average for more than 20 to 30 days, the market went higher. And thatās exactly what we have today.
And we canāt forget about the Triple Barrel buy signal we saw in January, with the Breakaway Momentum, Whaley Breadth Thrust, and the Triple 70 Breadth Thrust indicators. All three are ultra-rare and ultra-bullish ā and all three flashed on the same day for the first time ever.
Onto positioning:
From a positioning perspective, stocks are back to where they were at their October lows. Thatās when the 10-year yield popped above 4%, when the futures market began pricing out rate cuts, and when inflation expectations were pretty hot. And that makes us bullish because the positioning of expectations are at levels that leave a lot of room for dovish surprises.
Thereās a good chance that the data we receive in March and April surprises to the bullish side. And considering these expectations have swung to peak-bearishness while stocks are holding well-above their October lows, we think itās yet another sign that weāve arrived at a new bull market.
Check out the full episode to hear our complete breakdown and analysis!
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
2:47 - Our Macro Mindset
20:44 - EV Stocks: A Great Buying Opportunity?
23:50 - Clean Energyās Steady Rise
26:30 - 3D Printing Will Print Wealth
29:19 - Celsius: The Long & Short of It
31:33 - A Housing Market Rebound
32:48 - Consumers Carry On
36:09 - Oil to $120? We Donāt See It
42:34 - Self-Driving Speculation
46:08 - Have We Reached āPeak Peopleā?
57:19 - Fan Questions
1:02:00 - Closing Thoughts
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Welcome to another episode of our Hypergrowth Investing podcast, folks! This week, weāre taking a deeper look at a topic thatās had investors enraptured since November ā artificial intelligence (AI).
Weāve talked about the differences between narrow and general AI on the podcast before. But why is the distinction between the two so important when it comes to investment strategies?
For one, a lot of people get AI plain wrong. Take Blake Lemoine, for example. Blake notoriously was fired from Google for publicly discussing his work on Googleās LaMDA engine and claiming the AI had become sentient. And while his argument does wade into several important discussions to be had around artificial intelligence, it confuses a narrow AI with a general AI:
āI ran some experiments to see whether the AI was simply saying it felt anxious or whether it behaved in anxious ways in those situations. And it did reliably behave in anxious ways. If you made it nervous or insecure enough, it could violate the safety constraints that it had been specified for.ā
However, the difference between narrow AI and general AI is that a general artificial intelligence is truly creative while a narrow AI relies on language prompts and large language models to formulate its response.
General AI systems can do theoretically everything; think Jarvis from Iron Man or HAL 9000 from 2001: A Space Odyssey. These sci-fi-inspired models are omniscient and omnipotent ā and theyāre also nonexistent. But narrow AI ā (aka focused AI), systems designed to complete more singular tasks ā is very real. And itās the type of artificial intelligence that will see rapid mass adoption over the coming years.
Now, with this explosion in AI hype, hundreds of startups will also emerge, all aiming to create the best-in-class technology and become the top dog in the industry. But as with all technological innovations that came before it, the AI industry will eventually experience a great consolidation. And the companies based on general AI ā all hype and no substance ā will fail.
So, if youāre looking to profit from this emerging megatrend, weāve got two words for you: narrow AI.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:14 - AI Super Summit
00:04:55 - AI: Why Now
00:19:02 - The Worst AI Will Ever Be
00:27:00 - AI: Transforming Global Productivity
00:30:59 - Narrow AI vs. General AI
00:39:07 - Spotting Winners in AI
00:44:51 - How AI Will Change Investing
00:50:50 - Why Stocks Will Rebound
01:00:47 - Breaking Down Fisker's Earnings
01:06:03 - Should You Sell Lucid Stock?
01:09:24 - Why I Still Like Opendoor
01:13:12 - Fan Questions
01:27:23 - Closing Thoughts
š§Listen to the Podcastš§
ā”ļøSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3iC4uu3Qq49SSyrpwrp3KA
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ā”ļøGoogle: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5jYXN0ZWQudXMvNzEvSHlwZXJncm93dGgtSW52ZXN0aW5nLTgwN2ViZTdmL2ZlZWQ
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AI #AIstocks #narrowai
Happy earnings season, all! In this weekās episode of Hypergrowth Investing, weāre checking in on some of our favorites to talk about how theyāve fared this quarter.
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QuantumScape (QS)
There was lots of volatility with QS stock this week. But that volatility has to do with short coverings going into earnings, not the numbers themselves. The company has shipped prototypes to automakers, who are in the process of testing its breakthrough batteries. Now, due to the nature of the companiesā agreements, QuantumScape canāt disclose any testing details. But it has said that the tests are going well, which will likely translate to a smooth operational ramp over the coming quarters. Plus, QuantumScape is very disciplined in its cash control; it extended its runway to 2025, when commercial operations are expected to start. Those are all great developments. So, the real question is, can QS sustain an ongoing rally?
Roku (ROKU)
Roku reported earnings last week, too. Wall Street was very pleased, and ROKU popped nicely. Like QuantumScape, the company is excelling when it comes to cutting costs and managing cash. Roku is accelerating its user and engagement growth in a very bullish way. Active accounts rose 16% YoY last quarter ā the third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth ā and itās the same story for streaming hours growth. Roku is adding more users and getting those users more engaged. And since ad dollars follow eyeballs, this development is really bullish. Although, given that weāre in an ad recession, that growth isnāt translating into revenue expansion just yet. But recessions donāt last foreverā¦
Twilio (TWLO)
Another favorite reported earnings last week, and its stock popped, too. Weāre talking about Twilio. The company is guiding for a big year ahead. Twilio powers modern communications; and that demand is resilient and secular. It will keep growing. In truth, that was never a concern. So, what is? Margins. For a long time, the company spent at all costs to grow. But that has shifted. Twilio is now taking the same approach as many others ā grow responsibly. The company is cutting expenses and guiding toward big margin expansion. And the Street likes that approach.
Datadog (DDOG)
Datadog didnāt do too well with its recent earnings. Whatās up there? The company offered weak guidance for the upcoming year, and thatās because of the challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Does that change the narrative for this potential observability titan?
Shopify (SHOP)
The company released a poor earnings report, and as a result, the stock got crushed. It seems Shopify didnāt get the memo to āgrow responsibly.ā While the company is making some smart long-term investments, the market is not rewarding them because they come at the expense of margins. Indeed, profit margins are not improving and actually continue to deteriorate ā and the company expects that trend to persist. So, when it comes to next moves, it all depends on your investment style.
Crocs (CROX)
Fellow retail stock CROX, on the other hand, showed fantastic earnings and rose rather nicely last week. This company is killing it ā 60%-plus revenue growth last quarter, guiding for 30% growth next quarter. Though that trend is slowing, the company is still sustaining massive growth. And that means Crocsā success is based on more than just a passing trend.
Toast (TOST)
And last but not least, TOST ā like, Shopify, the stock was crushed on earnings. It really ran up going into its report and then got clobbered, all despite the company reporting a double-beat quarter with great growth and margin expansion, not to mention managementās guidance for that trend to persist over the next year. Fundamentally, Toastās earnings were fantastic. It seems that the Street just got ahead of itself with this one.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:29 - Macro Outlook
00:16:11 - Is QS Stock Still a Buy?
00:19:17 - 3 Reasons to Buy Roku
00:23:54 - Why the Street Likes TWLO
00:27:06 - Buy the Datadog Dip?
00:29:46 - Shopify & Crocs
00:36:24 - Take a Bite Out of Toast
00:38:49 - Fan Questions
00:59:37 - Closing Thoughts
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earnings #stockstobuy #hotstocks
Last week, we talked about how Big Tech stocks were the way to play the AI Revolution thatās sweeping the globe. So, will Big Tech be the big winners in 2023, or are there other ways to gain in this new bull market?
Well, AI is a powerful tool that will allow Big Tech to dominate even more than it already is. Itās the ultimate productivity game-changer. And indeed, not only does Big Tech have the data, resources, and talent to build great AI ā they have the platforms that stand to benefit most from that technology, too.
Just look at Microsoft (MSFT). Itās investing heavily in OpenAI and integrating ChatGPT into its suite of products and services. Imagine the boost in productivity that integration will allow. Writing a report and getting stuck with run-on sentences and a lack of clarity? What mightāve taken you an hour to revise will take AI just seconds ā freeing up more precious time in your day.
What about Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL)? Despite its Bard AI fumble, the company has access to the largest amount of consumer search interest data in the world, and thatās vital to developing robust AI and machine-learning algorithms. Similarly, Amazon (AMZN) runs the largest e-commerce platform on Earth, meaning the company holds the keys to the greatest collection of retail data in the world. And Meta (META) controls an unfathomable amount of data from its social media empire.
Thanks to the start of this transformative tech revolution ā and, in part, the improving macro backdrop ā Big Tech is due for a great 2023. Once investors realize the enormous potential for margin expansion with these firms, itās likely theyāll soar like never before. Weāre confident that buying Big Tech on the dip is a fabulous way to play the emerging AI Revolution.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:47: Disinflation
00:12:51: Game-Changing AI
00:26:16: Palantir
00:29:10: 3 EVs to Buy
00:36:08: Fluence
00:39:01: BNPL
00:43:52: UFO Activity
00:47:32: Sports Betting
00:51:42: Fan Questions
01:12:09: Closing Thoughts
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AI #stockstobuy
Welcome, folks, as this week weāre doing a deep-dive into the topic of the year: artificial intelligence (AI).
Weāve said it before. AI will change everything about everything, just like the internet, the computer, fire ā even the wheel ā changed everything about everything. The AI Revolution is here, and we think itāll move forward at lightning speed over the next few years. So letās unpack it, understand it, and find ways to profit from AI stocks.
Broadly speaking, artificial intelligence is technology that uses data to learn and improve over time without the need for human intervention or oversight. But the topic is amorphous ā AI isnāt one thing. Thereās conversational AI, like OpenAIās ChatGPT and Alphabetās (GOOG, GOOGL) Bard. Weāve had more ubiquitous low-level voice AI in things like Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant. And what about services like Spotify (SPOT)? That platform uses machine-learning algorithms to track songs users enjoy in order to recommend new music. We have robotics, automated software, self-driving carsā¦ the list goes on. AI can be manifested in so many ways; and thatās why investors are so excited about it.
But why is that hype happening right now? ChatGPT. In short, AI is having its āiPhone Moment.ā When Apple (AAPL) released the first iPhone, the internet had been around for many years. But it wasnāt until that breakthrough consumer product ā with robust technological power literally in the palms of our hands ā that we exploded into the internet era.
Now innovations like ChatGPT are arriving at a time when the world is producing exponential amounts of data, which is essential for AI development. And the volume of daily data creation is only going to explode higher from here.
Weāve arrived at a new era, folks. And itās time to embrace this AI Revolution to score generational gains.
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
03:02 - AI's iPhone Moment
26:08 - AI Stocks to Buy Now
35:42 - Quantitative Investing
43:47 - Megacap 6
49:58 - Macro Outlook
54:59 - Should You Buy Energy Stocks?
57:45 - Alternative Energy Revoluton
1:01:32 - EV Stock Tailwinds
1:03:01 - Housing Rebound
1:06:33 - Consumer Stocks? MEH
1:11:15 - Fan Questions
š§Listen to the Podcastš§
ā”ļøSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3iC4uu3Qq49SSyrpwrp3KA
ā”ļøApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hypergrowth-investing/id1605192953
ā”ļøGoogle: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5jYXN0ZWQudXMvNzEvSHlwZXJncm93dGgtSW52ZXN0aW5nLTgwN2ViZTdmL2ZlZWQ
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Artificialintelligence #chatgpt #bard #AI
Welcome, folks, to another installment of our weekly Hypergrowth Investing podcast, where we discuss all things investing, such as artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EVs), and more. If youāve been following my updates here or on our website, then itās no secret that weāre super bulls when it comes to SoFi (SOFI). Indeed, last year, when the stock was languishing under $5, we called it the buy of a lifetime. Well, so far in 2023, even before we hit February, SoFi stock is already up 50%. And on Monday of this week, it saw an especially large pop after the firm reported excellent fourth-quarter earnings.
Despite its rapid ascent this month, we still believe SoFi stock is the buy of a lifetime. In 2022, higher interest rates and a slowing economic backdrop were supposed to hinder lending activity and consumer spending and, ultimately, diminish SoFIās revenue and user growth trajectory. But as weāve seen from the companyās second-, third-, and now fourth-quarter earnings results, that could not be less true.
Now investors are seeing SoFiās flawless execution in spite of the tough macro environment, and theyāre getting excited. If the company can perform this well under these conditions, imagine what it can do when the macro meaningfully improves. This ongoing success speaks volumes about the importance of a robust management team ā especially in an industry as competitive as fintech.
SoFi is outperforming in a space with tons of room to grow. And thatās why we think the stock will keep flying higher.
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
03:07 - SoFi, So Fly
11:47 - Fed Outlook
23:15 - How to Play AI
29:29 - AI + Self-Driving
35:55 - Clean Energy
44:56 - EV Stocks in 2023
48:55 - Housing Boom
50:45 - Emerging Markets
51:47 - The Case for Platinum
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stockstobuy #sofi #AI
Itās Wednesday, which means weāre back with a new installment of our Hypergrowth Investing podcast!
Two months ago, despite widespread fear that the sky was actually falling, we were predicting a bullish breakout for stocks in this new year. And weāre very happy to see that that call has come to fruition. The S&P 500 is already up 5% year-to-date. The Nasdaq is up nearly 10% ā and weāre not even a month into 2023.
In fact, when it comes to the stock market, we think Sir John Templeton said it best: āBull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.ā We saw severe pessimism in the back half of 2022, and that outlook has even bled over into the new year. So, itās no surprise to us that a new bull market is being born on the back of this pessimistic sentiment.
And we believe this bullishness will last. What gives us confidence there? Well, in short, everything. Inflation is crashing, and the economy is remaining resilient. This unique combination sets the stage for a soft economic landing. The Fed can ease on its rate-hiking campaign, allowing for economic reexpansion in the back half of 2023 and beyond.
How about valuations? The current spread between earnings and Treasury yields signals a historically discounted market. And as inflation continues to crash, we should see some significant valuation multiple expansion throughout the year. Plus, thanks to the economyās resilience, earnings are coming in better than expected.
And donāt forget about all the technical indicators weāre seeing ā S&Pās golden cross signal, Breakaway Momentum, Whaley Breadth Thrust, Triple 70 Thrust, a bullish ātrifecta.ā
Everything is telling us to be confident. And everything is saying this bullishness will last. Itās time to position yourself for the next 12 months ā because gains could be tremendous.
Stay up to date with the hottest trends and seize financial freedom now by watching our latest Hypergrowth Investing episode.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:45 - Stock Outlook
00:11:55 - Should You Buy NFLX?
00:17:31 - The Bull Signal in Layoffs
00:22:17 - The Next TikTok Is...
00:31:07 - Globalization Trends
00:36:34 - Psychedelics
00:39:09 - EV Stocks to Buy
00:44:30 - Housing Trends
00:49:28 - Crypto Surge
00:55:34 - Q&A
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stockstobuy #evstocks #netflix
Since the start of the new year, the overall market trend has greatly improved, and the past few days have been no exception. The market has seen a significant and sudden increase in price action, with stocks no longer declining as they were in 2022. While stocks played a stubborn game in 2022, this year, they refuse to go lower. Best of all? Technology and growth are driving the ongoing stock market boom in 2023.
So why the sudden shift? Well, it seems that the consensus view in the market has finally aligned with the one we've had since November. Inflation is crashing hard, the Fed's rate hikes are nearly over, and the economy will likely avoid a deep recession. With this as the consensus, more investors are rushing to buy the dip in risk assets.
And if you want to gauge the market's risk-on appetite, just take a look at the crypto markets. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) started the year at $16,500 and popped to $21,500 over the weekend ā up a whopping 40% year-to-date. Several major altcoins have doubled in that same time. This is the type of price action you only see when new bull markets begin.
We are highly constructive on what weāve seen so far. This is likely Year 1 of a multiyear bull market. Get ready for those gains.
So, the current price action in the market strongly suggests that we're seeing the arrival of a new bull market. And last week, this price action triggered a bullish indicator known as the Breakaway Momentum indicator.
This indicator measures the ratio of the total number of stocks that were advancing over the past 10 days to the total number of stocks that were declining in that time. When that ratio is roughly above 2, meaning the number of advancing stocks is double the number of declining stocks, the Breakaway Momentum indicator is triggered.
This has only happened a handful of times over the past 70 years, but every time it has, stocks were higher six and 12 months later. And similarly, nearly every time this breadth thrust indicator is triggered, it's been when a bear market is ending and a new bull market is beginning.
In short, current price action indicates that a new bull market is forming right now. As always, remember that price is truth. So, keep an eye out for any new developments in the market.
For us, one emerging development we're bullish on is quantitative finance. Hypergrowth Investing is no stranger to AI. Weāve talked about its impact on several industries in previous episodes, even when it comes to the future of stock picking. Weāre confident that eventually, AI and other quantitative approaches will dominate most money management and financial market strategies.
Investors with fantastic track records and decades of experience picking stocks are few and far between. And access to these folks is very limited. But in the future, we will have access to AI tools and quantitative systems that allow us to be the best investors we can be ā by removing emotion from decision-making and following the data.
The stock market is a veritable treasure trove of data. And with the advent of machine-learning algorithms, it's becoming a powerful tool for investors. In the next few years, it's expected that most investors will turn to quantitative trading systems, powered by AI, to gain an edge in the market. Those who embrace this technology will have a significant advantage over those who don't, and will be able to make more informed and profitable trades.
Thatās why our team has spent the past year developing a quantitative trading system to inform our investment strategies. We are using this quant tool to scan the market for the most high-quality breakout stocks. And by implementing machine-learning algorithms, we aim to create a robust system that helps us to greatly outperform the market.
Learn more here: https://bit.ly/3kpWXUT
Watch the full episode of Hypergrowth Investing above.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:35 - Stock Boom
00:08:00 - Breakaway Momentum
00:20:15 - EV Price Cuts
00:24:00 - Let's Talk Davos
00:31:15 - Crocs Takeover
00:38:38 - The Genius of Celsius
00:45:30 - Stock Regime Shift
00:47:50 - Quantitative Finance
00:56:18 - Fan Questions!
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celh #ai #quant #evstocks #stockstobuy
Welcome to another brand-new episode of our Hypergrowth Investing podcast, where we get candid on SoFiās (SOFI) prospects in 2023, ChatGPT3 and the AI Revolution, TikTok government bans, and whether Appleās (AAPL) XR headset can do for the metaverse what the iPhone did for the internet. Buckle up, friends, itās going to be a long one!
If youāre a sports fan, then you probably know that the college football championship game just happened a few nights ago (and boy, it wasnāt even close, was it?). But more importantly, this championship game was held at SoFi Stadium. Since then, SoFiās been in the spotlight ā and rightfully so.
Great products make for great businesses, which make for great stocks. And thatās exactly what you have with SoFi. Its world-class digitally native consumer finance app is a modern-day dream. And because the company doesnāt have to maintain a physical presence, it can pass those cost-savings onto customers through better yields and higher interest.
We see this as a company that will grow 20% per year into 2030. Yet SOFI stock is trading at 0.9X its book value. Traditional banking giants are trading at larger multiples ā while growing at just 2% per year. And itās all thanks to the major risk-off sentiment that began in 2022.
As soon as that sentiment abates ā and it always does ā SOFI stock could rocket in a hurry.
The AI Revolution Is Here
Pivoting to artificial intelligence, which weāve talked about a lot since the launch of ChatGPT3, OpenAI (the company behind that product) is reportedly looking to raise funds at a $29 billion valuation. What does this mean for AI stock investors?
Well, in 2021, the company was worth $14 billion. Less than two years later, it has increased its value by more than 100%. And weāre confident that the launch of ChaptGPT3 was a tipping point for the AI Revolution.
Coding, music creation, copywriting, storytelling ā there are already a plethora of things you can do with AI, even in these early stages. And we just hit the fast-forward button.
Considering the state of the markets and the stressful macro backdrop we had in 2022, the launch of many AI platforms went unnoticed. While theyāre flying under the radar today, theyāll soon attract tons of users ā and value ā leading to a categorical boom in AI.
Some trends are unstoppable forces, and it seems that AI is one of them.
TikTok Tops Out ā Should You Buy SNAP Stock?
First off, we see short-form video as the future. Itās no secret that weāre big fans of TikTok, but the platform keeps getting banned in certain places, namely on government devices in various U.S. states.
Now, this doesnāt mean TikTok is done. But we do think its ascent is over. Bans are one thing, and widespread media coverage is another. If all media outlets agree on anything, itās that TikTok is sketchy. And their coverage is likely to encourage users to migrate elsewhere.
As a result, platforms like Snap (SNAP) and Instagram will probably see their usage soar over the next two years. TikTokās descent will act as an engagement tailwind for these platforms, and theyāll return to continued growth very soon.
The companies that will really thrive in this environment are those that tap into next-gen technology to augment user experience in a way that others cannot, and we think Snap really excels on that front. Get bullish here!
Watch the full episode of Hypergrowth Investing above.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:28 - SoFi vs. Everybody
00:13:45 - The Space Economy
00:25:28 - Metaverse Killer-App
00:35:04 - AI Everywhere
00:47:50 - TikTok Banned? Oh Snap!
00:58:56 - EV Stocks
01:02:28 - Stock Boom 2023
01:08:28 - Fan Questions!
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sofi #ai #metaverse #evstocks #stockstobuy
SoFi (SOFI) CEO Anthony Noto recently purchased $5 million worth of SOFI stock and then added another $2.4 million. Insider buying is a valuable metric when looking at a company, and Noto's large purchases are a clear indication of his confidence in the company. Why is he so bullish? And more importantly, should we be following in his footsteps and buying big for 2023?
Noto has been buying SOFI stock all year long, but these are his biggest purchases by far. And they represent massive votes of confidence in the company. This is someone you want to listen to. Not only is Noto highly experienced on Wall Street, having served as CFO of Twitter (TWTR) and the NFL, but SOFI has also demonstrated strong growth under his leadership, with revenues increasing by 50% every quarter. So, in our opinion, his bullishness holds even more weight than a āregularā CEOās would.
Itās no surprise that we love SOFI stock. The company has been steadily growing revenues at a 50% clip every single quarter while mature firms like Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are not. Additionally, SOFI's valuation is lower compared to those incumbent firms, making it an attractive investment. Whatās more, with several potential catalysts on the horizon, such as the end of the student loan moratorium, SoFi could be looking at outsized growth.
Overall, Noto's purchases and SOFI's strong performance make it a worthwhile investment for 2023. It could soar when interest rates turn around, when the economy stabilizes, when the student loan moratorium ends. There are so many dormant catalysts here that could make this stock rocket. Itās no wonder that the CEO is piling in. And weād be buyers, too.
But SOFI isnāt the only stock weāre bullish on right now ā certain EV stocks have had our attention for a while. Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) come up quite often, but do we have an absolute favorite for the next 12 months? We do. (Watch the video to find out which stock weāre talking about!)
We really believe that affordable electric vehicles will sell the best in 2023. The only uncertainty for us here is whether the company will be able to hit its production targets next year. If it does, this EV stock will sell tens of thousands of EVs per quarter by the end of 2023. And that simply isnāt reflected in its current stock price. We think the stock can more than double in 2023.
Something else we've been bullish on all year? Solar stocks. And lately, we've only gotten more bullish. The fundamental momentum in the solar industry is incredibly robust right now. For example, last week, McDonald's (MCD) signed a major deal to buy 190 megawatts of solar power to essentially power its entire U.S. supply chain. This means that the biggest restaurant chain operator in America is going all-in on solar for its entire operations. Not to mention, Meta (META) ā one of the world's biggest companies ā also signed a similar agreement to power its data center in the Southeastern U.S. Everywhere you look, there are positive news developments and really positive earnings from these companies in the solar industry. This underscores the stunning momentum the sector is feeling. We think it will only accelerate in 2023.
This year, the world faces an energy crisis. We came to a fork in the road and had to make a choice: try to make oil and gas work, or embrace clean energy technology to power our world. All major governments around the world passed landmark legislation to accelerate the clean energy transition. Don't fight that trend. It will only get stronger from here.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:59 - Should You Buy SoFi Now?
00:09:48 - Disinflation Wave
00:33:11 - Will Elon Leave TWTR?
00:36:42 - FSR to $20?
00:38:02 - Solar Stocks
00:50:44 - Avatar vs Disney+?
00:55:57 - Fan Questions!
š§Listen to the Podcastš§
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sofi #solar #evstocks
Inflation ā itās been the 2022 word of the year. And finally, as we head into 2023, itās starting to come down in a big way. We got a much cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday. As a result, the market has been on a tear. And we think this rally is just a taste of whatās to come.
It seems clear that inflation will crash back to 2% over the next 12 to 24 months. In fact, over the past 100 years of market history, weāve had seven prior periods of red-hot inflation that became disinflation ā just like what weāre seeing today. Each time, when inflation began to fall, it kept going lower. On average, we saw two to three years of disinflation and about 10 points off of the CPI.
The current disinflation wave has begun, and itās still early in this ballgame. The forces are in motion ā and theyāre going to stay that way for a long time. Weāre confident that in 2023, disinflation will be the word of the year. And since stocks respond positively to that kind of environment, weāre quite bullish on the markets here.
Now, inflation isnāt the only piece to this macro puzzle. Itās imperative that it crashes ā and itās also imperative for the Fed to pivot dovish in response. Given the cooler-than-expected data weāve received over the past two weeks, we think the Fed will continue to lean into its recent dovishness. Stocks should pop big in response, and that will lead to a new bull market in 2023.
In fact, we think that despite what most investors are anticipating, weāll get a āsoft landingā from the Fed next year. And the data supports this thesis.
Over the past several months, weāve been seeing major disinflation without much labor market destruction. Back in the 1980s, we were in a similar disinflationary cycle ā but at that time, unemployment rocketed to around 9%. We saw something analogous in the 1970s. But today, the Fed is tamping down inflation without harming the labor market. And thatās highly conducive to a soft landing. Weāre donning our optimist caps for this one.
But enough about the Fed. Letās pivot (pun intended) and check in on a stock we havenāt mentioned in a while ā Tesla (TSLA). Weāve been bearish on this one for a while. It was the first mover and, really, the only viable competitor in the EV space for years. But since its production ramp in 2019, a lot of competition has entered the fold.
Legacy auto companies are increasingly electrifying their own models. Plus, a swath of new entrants are coming into the market. And many ā like our favorites Rivian (RIVN), Lucid (LCID), and Fisker (FSR) ā are growing nicely. As a result, Tesla has and will continue to lose market share over the next few years.
The stock has come down quite a bit. Normally, weād say to take profits on the short and move on. But the bear thesis is actually getting stronger. Elon Muskās Twitter takeover and injection into the political realm has not been a good move for Tesla. We think it will continue to see a net loss in customers, and the share price will keep falling. Regaining momentum will require some significant changes. And until that happens, TSLA will remain a dead duck.
And like a lot of the market, Chinese stocks were crushed in 2022. Recently, theyāve been bouncing back on hopes that the economy will reopen next year. Should we be buying?
Yes (but not hand over fist). We think that in 2023, China will experience what the U.S. did in 2021 ā pent-up consumer demand coupled with loose monetary conditions to unleash a massive economic boom. Indeed, especially after nearly three years locked down, there must be an incredible amount of pent-up demand in the country.
Now, this reopening will be choppy, but that shouldnāt impact the bull thesis here. Thatās well-priced into these stocks. And this major catalyst on the horizon could spark massive revenue and earnings growth ā and send these stocks soaring. Throw that market a bone or two and see what happens over the coming year.
To hear the whole story about inflation and our market outlook, watch this weekās episode now!
šTimestampsš
00:00 - Intro
2:17 - Inflation Summation
7:26 - Fed Impact
12:06 - Sticking the Landing
19:53 - Nuclear Fusion
29:58 - Should You Buy FLNC?
34:38 - The Big Short: Tesla
44:41 - EV Stocks to Buy
47:34 - Home Builder Stocks
51:09 - China Outlook
53:36 - Fan Questions!
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Welcome to the newest episode of our Hypergrowth Investing podcast! This week, Aaron and I dive right into the latest tech innovation thatās taken the internet by storm ā ChatGPT.
Itās an AI-powered chatbot created by OpenAI. And in the few short days following its public release, itās already demonstrated profound abilities.
It can edit code; tutor in math and physics; write articles, research papers, essays, and more. And itās a powerful example of the AI Revolutionās global significance.
Indeed, the world is becoming increasingly automated ā and AI is critical to this next generation of industrialization. We were already bullish on AI stocks. And ChatGPTās success makes us even more bullish.
Thatās because when it comes to automation, there are two main components ā robotics and AI software. And as evidenced by ChatGPTās robust capabilities, AI software has progressed exceptionally well. The same is true on the hardware side of things. Just within the last few months, weāve seen Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) automating their warehouses; Chiliās has implemented robotic servers; Dominoās (DPZ) delivers pizza using self-driving cars. The software and hardware underlying this trend are laying a solid foundation ā one that should allow automation to take off.
But whatās at the core of AI? Data. Data is the currency of artificial intelligence ā and the more data an AI model has, the better that model becomes. Imagine all the data that can be gathered from space! Right now, in fact, several companies have satellites in orbit that are capturing new streams of data; Data streams that can be integrated into AI modeling to improve, say, GPS. We could make autonomous cars infinitely better at self-driving. The sky is the limit.
Then thereās the economic value of AI on electric vehicles, as artificial intelligence can run simulations to produce an output to create a better battery. More to the point, AI could potentially uncover a method to create lithium without mining. This would allow for an abundance of lithium, making EV mass production possible on an unimaginable scale.
But hype and progress alone arenāt enough to propel this industry forward. Booms happen when technological advancements converge with a significant urgency. And right now, as we approach 2023, we face an uncertain economy and labor market.
To hear the whole story about AI and our market outlook, watch this weekās episode now!
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:21 - ChatGPT: Google on Steroids
00:18:20 - Can AI "Fix" Inflation?
00:31:41 - Extraterrestrial Data
00:35:41 - A Gamechanger for EVs
00:45:34 - AI-Powered Investing
00:50:14 - Market Outlook
00:59:44 - "Mission Critical" Software Stocks
01:04:51 - Fan Questions!
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chatgpt #aistocks #artificialintelligence
Whatās up, hypergrowth investors? And welcome back to our Hypergrowth Investing podcast! Weāre now a few days past the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday shopping extravaganza. And this season has been surprisingly strong! Now, weāve been bullish on retail stocks heading into the holiday shopping season for a while ā especially e-commerce stocks. And these sales numbers only bolster our conviction.
Analysts expected sales this past weekend to be weak, and it makes sense why. Consumer confidence has plunged to near all-time-low levels. Excess savings has been wiped out. Portfolios have been crushed. Everyoneās talking about a recession. Inflation is still high ā so are record sales enough to counteract the yearās dramatic increase in prices? Well, it turns out, yes.
According to Mastercard (MA), Black Friday sales were up 12%, and online sales were up 14%. Butā¦ how? The labor market is showing some signs of weakness, but itās still strong. The unemployment rate remains low. So long as consumer still have jobs, theyāll keep spending. And thatās why we think a deep recession in 2023 is unlikely.
Our economy has withstood one of the most aggressive quantitative tightening cycles ever, and the U.S. consumer is still chugging along. Weāre starting to see reacceleration in e-commerce growth trends. The post-pandemic pent-up demand for in-store shopping has diminished, and folks are returning to online purchases. E-commerce growth trends have normalized, and theyāre going strong.
Thatās not all weāre bullish onā¦ Guess whoās back in the Clubhouse? Bob Iger. And since this CEO changing of the guard, the stock has languished at its COVID lows. But we think Igerās return is fantastic news for Disney (DIS) stock.
Disney is trying to build out its streaming ability to become a tech company, not a legacy one. Former CEO Bob Chapek was on the fence about it. But Bob Iger is bullish on this development. And upon his return, weāre likely to see Disney return to its streaming-first narrative.
Is this the new market regime?
Thatās the ideology weāre seeing everywhere at the moment. But we have trouble with that sentiment. The data strongly supports the idea that what really drives stock prices is earnings. And when you look at earnings guidance for the coming years, itās the tech stocks that will have tremendous growth. So, while the Dow might be outperforming right now, the Nasdaqās tech stocks will still reign supreme in the long run. āNew Schoolā companies are here to stay.
But what about oil? Well, oil and gas are part of those āOld Schoolā stocks. And here in 2022, weāve been bullish on the āNew Schoolā clean tech. Have things changed going into 2023? Nope!
Up until this point, each year, companies spent more capital on oil and gas infrastructure and operations than they did on renewable energies. That changed in 2022, helped along by legislation promoting the acceleration of clean energy production around the world.
Align with these decisions and invest alongside them. Weāre talking solar, hydrogen, energy storage stocks ā theyāll continue to work very well going into 2023 and will be some of the marketās biggest winners throughout the 2020s.
Before we wrap things up, lets talk about a favorite of ours ā quantum computing. The computational power of a quantum computer is exponentially more than that of a classical computer. That has profound implications for nearly every industry out there, and now weāre finally seeing its real-world benefits.
But this revolution will take time to take off. There are some promising quantum stocks out there right now. Invest with significant patience.
This cake wonāt bake overnight.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 -Intro
00:02:42 - Forget it, Luke. Itās Chinatown.
00:11:12 - Black Friday Was a Hit. How?
00:21:22 - Iger's Back -- Buy DIS
00:27:17 - Old-School Stocks to Avoid
00:35:08 - What's Next for Oil?
00:40:35 - Clean Energy for 2023
00:48:10 - Quantum Computing Revolution
00:57:19 - Fan Questions!
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2023 #stockstobuy #beststockstobuynow #sofi #rivn #sq #inflation #fed
With inflation starting to turn the corner, 2022ās pain is about to turn into 2023ās gain!
And itās not just inflation; Every single metric that turned this market into a bear market is now flashing indicators that the tide is turning yet again.
Recall that in 2022, weāve dealt with rising inflation, an increasingly aggressive Fed, rising Treasury yields, and shrinking corporate profit margins. In 2023, weāre getting just the opposite on all fronts. Inflation is turning to disinflation. Our overheated labor market is cooling down as corporations lay off employees and expand their operating leverage.
Weāre sympathetic to the employees caught in the crossfire here. But in that environment, the Fed will have to pivot dovish, ultimately creating the sort of conditions that allow growth stocks (and the consumer) to thrive.
Which is why weāre incredibly bullish on a massive rally materializing in 2023. So, when it comes to investing, whatās going to work? And maybe more importantly, whatās not?
All the trends that were pertinent here in 2022 will reverse course as we head into 2023. Headwinds will become tailwinds, and vice versa. By that same token, what worked in financial markets will reverse course, too ā and crash.
So, what worked exceptionally well in 2022? Energy, oil, commodities. We think theyāre going to crash in ā23. (In fact, this past quarterās 13F filings show that hedge funds are cashing out on oil. Follow the smart money before those energy trades fizzle.) Similarly, weāre confident bonds will excel over the coming year. As inflation continues to cool and the Fed pivots dovish, yields will collapse ā and long bonds will prove a great strategy.
In 2022, soaring interest rates have caused the housing market to nosedive. It reasons that a dovish Fed and stabilizing (or falling) rates in ā23 will turn the tide for housing, and those stocks will rebound.
And donāt forget to add those high-quality tech stocks to your portfolio. Hot inflation permeated the markets this year and put a chokehold on tech. As itās stamped out, investors will regain their excitement for innovation, and tech stocks will take to the skies once again.
COVIDās emergence in March 2020 kickstarted years of pandemic-related burdens on the markets. But in 2023, weāll finally enter a new era of market expansion. It should be the start of a great decade for growth.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:35 - The New Bull Market
00:22:05 - The FTX Effect
00:28:04 - Best Stocks for 2023
00:36:02 - EV Quantum Leap
00:41:18 - Metaverse Done Right
00:42:55 - Smart Money Buys
00:47:40 - Fan Questions!
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bullmarket #Stockstobuy #tech #mttr #open #stocks
SoFi is one of those stocks that checks every box for Luke Lango. And for a while now, Lukeās been bullish on SoFiās growth velocity. Looking ahead to 2023, Lukeās even more bullish.
According to Luke, the up-and-coming fintech company is truly the āAmazon of Finance.ā Itās creating a powerful super-app that tons of younger consumers are gravitating toward. Its suite of products is second to none. SoFi offers checking, savings, loans and credit, stock and crypto investing, not to mention educational content, custom budgeting, and sweet rewards.
As I alluded to, the companyās growth trends are exceptional. Sure, growth has slowed somewhat over the past few quarters, but it remains very positive. Luke points out that SoFi is showing 60%-plus product and member growth year-over-year. Indeed, across all KPIs, SoFiās growth velocity is impressive ā and especially so considering the broader macroeconomic environment.
Plus, the cherry on top? The end of the student loan moratorium. This company defined itself on student loan refinancing, says Luke ā a business that took a major hit during the pandemic, when student loan payments were put on pause. But that major growth catalyst comes back into the picture in two months.
As Luke puts it, SoFi stock is already dramatically undervalued today. So, with its student loan business back online ā and with the company already firing on all cylinders ā itās easy to see how SoFi stock could rocket way higher in 2023.
Following Amazonās playbook, SoFi is doing everything possible to make the most convenient and lowest cost financial product in existence. That should solidify its leadership in the industry for many years to come. At $5 today, Luke claims SoFi stock is an absolute steal.
Despite the macro picture, Luke believes tech is our top investment option over the next few years. Heās looking at some mid- to large-cap tech stocks with great financials and sticky businesses that got grossly overvalued during the pandemic ā but are now trading at some great discounts. And software stocks are a niche weāve got our eyes on.
And weāve talked about our āBig Threeā ā robotics, clean tech, and space ā many times now. Well, given the path of inflation ā and the wait time for a pizza on Halloween night ā Luke thinks the robotics narrative is going to be huge. We need labor automation ā for restaurants, deliveries, warehouses, construction. The labor market has been bifurcated, and thereās a massive shortage of blue-collar workers.
On top of that, birth rates are falling around the world, which means that the already-small labor market will only continue to shrink.
Automation holds the key to solving the labor crisis we face. Thereās enormous economic potential there, says Luke. Which means long-term, robotics stocks are where you want to be invested.
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:19 - The SoFi Bull Case
0:14:25 - The Fed Pivot
0:21:25 - The Fed Aftermath
0:28:08 - Tech Stocks to Buy
0:37:39 - Tech Earnings
0:42:05 - Crypto Check-In
0:50:22 - Fan Questions!
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Stockstobuy #tech #sofi #stocks
Last week, we saw stocks rally in a major way. And weāre confident this isnāt another head fake. This rally has legs, and it seems possible that stocks are clawing their way out of this bear market.
Earnings have been very strong. Yields are coming off their highs. Stocks have been performing well. Thereās talk of a Fed pivot again (which feels much more substantiated than it has previously). Weāre cautiously optimistic that this rally could become the start of a new bull market.
Though it may not be happening as fast as some hope, inflation is coming down. The Fed is considering slowing its pace of rate hikes. And the bond market has started to react on a global scale. Central banks around the world have capitulated, causing yields to retreat. And now earnings are surprising to the upside.
Altogether, this is creating a recipe for stocks to move higher ā at least in the short term and hopefully into the medium and long term as well.
So, if this is the start of a potential long-term rally, does that mean weāve hit the market bottom? Well, timing an exact bottom is nearly impossible ā but weāre seeing indicators flashing all across the market, signaling that the bottoming process has begun. And thatās all that matters when preparing for an incoming bull market.
The first signal is valuations. Without a deep recession, bear markets tend to bottom around 14 to 16X forward earnings. And recently, stocks have reached about 15X ā very close to that bottoming level.
The second thing weāre watching is financial conditions. Bloombergās financial conditions index ā which takes yields, stock prices, commodity prices, etc., into account ā dropped below -1 a few weeks ago. Over the past 25 years, when that index falls beneath -1, stocks are close to a bottom.
The third? The S&Pās price is well below analystsā price targets, about 23% below consensus. Historically, the market bottom when the S&P was 20% to 30% below analyst targets. Thatās bullish.
Another indicator? Fund managers have record-high levels of cash. That indicates capitulation and money waiting on the sidelines for a more bullish setup. And thatās bullish, too.
Not to mention, investor sentiment is at peak-bearish levels. This tends to mark āpeak fear,ā and it usually correlates with market bottoms.
What about a strong technical indicator? The McClellan Oscillator, which is a market breadth indicator, just broke below -15 ā a super negative reading it rarely breaks beneath. And every time it does ā 100% of the time ā stocks are higher 12 months later. Indeed, that is a huge bottoming signal for the market.
These arenāt the only signals. The list goes on. Itās clear that weāre due for a big rally here. And itās possible that this rally could bounce us all the way out of bear market territory.
šTimestampsš 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:16 - Market Rally 00:09:40 - Have Stocks Bottomed? 00:20:28 - Earnings Season 00:29:21 - The Yield Curve 00:33:19 - Recession Talk 00:36:28 - Real Estate 00:39:09 - Politics as Usual 00:41:52 - Our "Big 3" 00:44:45 - Fan Questions! š¢Join Luke's Free Newsletter: https://signup.investorplace.com/?cid=MKT502688&eid=MKT612161 š»Visit Our Website: https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/ š Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/c/HypergrowthInvesting?sub_confirmation=1 #Stockstobuy #earnings #stocks
Now, itās nearly impossible to predict a stock market bottom. But one universal truth? Eventually, every bear market ends Ā¬and a new bull market begins ā creating new stocks to buy.
And though we may not be able to predict this bear marketās exact finale, we can follow the data today to prepare for that new bull market tomorrow.
Since 1929, the median bear market decline has been 29% over 12 months. Currently, weāre at a 30% decline over 11 months ā almost exactly in line with that historical average. Valuations are washed out, near levels that marked the bottom of previous bear markets.
The S&P 500 has collapsed to its 200-week moving average ā and nearly every bear market of the past 70 years has bottomed at or around that level. Not to mention the index has fallen into oversold territory, which ā you guessed it ā usually marks its bottom.
Market breadth, investor sentiment, cash positioning, the put/call ratio ā the list goes on and on. Indeed, these signals are flashing everywhere. And absent a āLehman moment,ā stocks will be higher in 12 months. We donāt need to time a bottom here ā we just need to prepare for that new bull market. Thatās why weāre going on a major shopping spree. Find out which types of stocks weāre buying in this weekās episode!
Elsewhere in this episode, we discuss the following:
Mark Zuckerbergās Metaverse
The metaverse ā itās been buzzing in the news lately. In fact, Meta had an enormous breakthrough debutā¦ legs. Will Zuckerberg be leading this space? What does the future of the metaverse actually looks like?
This is one of those industries that got way too overhyped and then deflated, and now itās trying to find its niche because make no mistake; there is a value add there. Indeed, weāre still bullish ā and no, itās not because of what Zuckerberg is building.
The metaverse allows for the creation of a digital world, and it can be whatever you want it to be. The creation of digital twins would allow us to plug in and visit the Coliseum, the Eiffel Tower, the Great Pyramids of Giza ā all from the comfort of our own homes. We could try on clothes virtually to decide if we want to buy them. Business owners could check up on their spaces around the country or around the world without needing to travel at all.
The reason weāre bullish on this industry is because the opportunities in the metaverse are nearly limitless. It reminds us of the internet. Regardless of what it is, weāll all find some utility in it.
Our āBig Threeā Themes
Letās check in on our Big 3 ā space, robotics, and climate tech! And as you might be able to guess, weāre still as bullish as ever.
Amazon (AMZN) is jumping into space. The company is planning on launching their own version of Starlink satellites. We continue to see mainstream media coverage about how robots are saving the day for the labor industry right now. A lot of firms are starting new solar and energy storage project development. And EV companies like Stellantis (STLA) are massively increasing production of electric vehicles.
There are a ton of bullish developments happening in these spaces. And we think these three sectors will the biggest market winners over the next 12 months.
šTimestampsš
0:00 - Intro
1:56 - Holiday Buying Spree
26:53 - Zuckerberg's Metaverse
36:39 - At-Home Fitness
42:44 - Is Hybrid Work Over?
46:34 - Our "Big 3" Themes
48:13 - Fan Questions!
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robotics #cleantech #cleanenergy #climatetech #space #automation #robotics #foreverbattery #evs
First on the docket this week ā weāre checking in on the Fed. After last weekās big rate-hike announcement, we heard some hawkish commentary from Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell. That really spooked the markets, and stocks have been in freefall ever since. But the central bank hiked as expectedā¦ so, why are investors freaking out right now?
Well, the markets were expecting a soft landing in the forecast, yet the Fedās projections showed that the bank has no intention of pivoting. Itās much more concerned with the real economy, not the financial economy, and itās keeping its foot on the gas until something breaks. The lesson here ā donāt fight the Fed. Wait until it pivots, then get constructive on stocks again.
Well, weāre seeing evidence of a massive disinflationary wave building, and that will force the Fed to pivot sooner than it anticipates ā which will, in turn, lead to a mega market rally. But as we wait for that to happen, weāve turned bearish on the short term. We need a final massive capitulation selloff for these bullish things to happen. Historically, these grand finales mark the bottom in a bear market. One more fast-and-furious selloff could break some things in the real economy and force the Fed to reassess.
With that mega rally on the horizon, what stocks should we be buying to play this comeback? Growth stocks, baby. Weāre talking climate tech, space, and robotics. These sectors are really picking up steam. In the broader markets, VC funding has really dried up lately ā but that money is still flowing with climate tech. And thereās a lot of legislation powering this sectorās growth. Weāre also seeing the continued deployment of robotics and automation in various industries across the market. Not to mention continued innovation in space. These are areas that hold huge potential for early stage investors, and we couldnāt be more bullish.
Closing out this weekās episode, we leave off with some of the best stocks to buy right now. These arenāt picks for the short term ā theyāll go lower before they go higher. But weāre talking about stocks that go from $3, to $9, to $20, to $40 over the next two years. Long-term investors, buy the dip, and hold your nose. These will pay off big-time.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:59 - Don't Fight the Fed
00:08:04 - The Inflation Situation
00:14:40 - Stock Market Crash
00:28:04 - Growth Stocks, Baby!
00:31:11 - The Big Three
00:41:50 - Best Stocks to Buy
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fed #inflation #marketcrash #beststocks
In this weekās Hypergrowth Investing Podcast, Aaron and I go over the macro-economic environment to answer the question: āWhy is everyone acting like we are all on a sinking ship?ā
The first half of the year was defined by inflation, while the second half is defined by the Federal Reserve. They are steadily fighting inflation; however, the overall consensus is they are going too hard against inflation. Many people think this is going to lead them to walk the economy into a recession, even though we are already technically in a recession.
We arenāt seeing much of a drop off yet in the larger economy for one crucial reason: the financial economy leads the ārealā economy.
In short, the economy is going to take a big hit in the next six months. Between the labor market which is set to drop off in the coming months, low earnings projections, and an overwhelming number of bears in the market, the short-term outlook isnāt pretty.
The good news? We are close to āthe bottomā in terms of price and time. We are in the final innings of this bear market and see the light at the end of the tunnel for the upcoming bull market in 2023.
But itās all going to come down to the Fed. On the heels of global capitulation, they have been hawkish for months, but some Fed members have opened the door to a change in stance in the past week.
OPEC+, the largest oil producer in the world, announced a recession size production cut. This is the main contributor to the rise in oil prices. But there is so much demand that oil prices arenāt being pushed all the way to their previous highs like this past summer.
This spike in oil prices is telling us that demand destruction is on the horizon. But at the end of the day, oil prices are going to trend lower in the next few months.
The ābottomā is going to be confirmed by the official Fed pivot or Fed pause on hiking rates. Stocks tend to bottom because markets are forward looking.
We predict that we will hit the āreal bottomā within the next three months, and then itās off to the races for the new bull market.
On the micro-economic front, our ābig threeā sectors have not changed. Climate tech, robotics, and space still have great fundamentals and high growth potential.
The one upside to the absurd rise in oil prices, directly due to the OPEC+ production cut, is the pivot to clean energy sources. This means more solar panels, hydrogen facilities, more EVs on the road, and the restart of nuclear power.
Everyone is fed up with gas and energy prices that their own government doesnāt even control anymore. There is going to be a massive shift in clean energy solutions throughout North America and Europe and this is going to create massive investment opportunities in solar and hydrogen stocks but especially battery energy storage system stocks.
Automation and robotics are an especially hot topic recently, with the rollout of prototypes from Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN). These are two of the biggest companies in the world who are all in on robots. This is huge.
Pay attention to these significant moves. The industry will accelerate rapidly over the next few years.
Automation is going to help solve the labor-shortage problems across blue-collar work forces. While white-collar firms are firing, blue-collar companies ā like the retail and restaurant industry ā need automation solutions. We are super bullish in this space.
Whatās more, there have been a lot of successful launches into space recently and demand is very strong.
Across all of these sectors, supply chains are improving and inflation problems are being fixed. Take EVs for example. While the issues of supply chains are improving, at the same time, gas prices are going up. The cost delta between these two are growing, which is going to cause EV demand and production to rise.
The easing of supply chain issues are creating more opportunities in the clean tech, robotics and space industries and creating more demand and higher stock prices in these sectors especially.
Does that mean itās time to buy clean tech, robotics, and space stocks? Watch the podcast for our answer!
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:37 - The Biggest Driver of Stock
0:26:19 - The Opportunity in "Forever" Battery Tech
0:35:44 - Gold & Real Estate
0:47:12 - Fan Questions!
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robotics #cleantech #cleanenergy #climatetech #space #automation #robotics #foreverbattery #evs
Another space that we love ā and whose stocks have been absolutely soaring lately ā is the energy storage industry.
In fact, if there were one sector to stay bullish on over the next 12 months, regardless of the macroeconomic backdrop, itās energy storage. Population growth, urbanization, and digitization are creating a demand for energy that we donāt have the supply to meet. We need more energy.
Most think it should come from more oil and gas, more solar and wind, more nuclear, maybe hydrogen. But the thing holding us back, especially on the clean tech side of things, is energy storage. So, this is a space thatās due for massive growth in the months and years ahead. And indeed, weāre seeing this start to play out in Europe as we speak. Greece, Ireland, Germany, the U.K, and more are all beginning to construct and deploy battery energy storage across the continent.
We love innovative tech that works to solve real-world problems. And right now, energy storage systems are putting on their red capes and saving the day. And because of that, investment in the space is starting to grow exponentially.
And one of the major catalysts for this expansion is the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. That includes a first-ever investment tax credit (ITC) for standalone energy storage units. Those ITCs are what allowed solar panel construction to boom in the 2010s ā and for solar stocks to rocket during that time. And now ITCs are doing the same thing for energy storage. We really could not be more bullish on this space.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:20 - Fed Meeting
00:19:07 - Quitting Stocks for Sports Betting
00:23:37 - Best EV Stocks
00:26:25 - Energy Storage Boom
00:38:03 - EVTOLs Take Off
00:45:32 - Future of Virtual Reality
00:54:25 - AVs & Psychedelics
01:02:57 - Fan Questions!
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sportsbetting #electric #evs #ESS #autonomous #bitcoin #ethereum
NFL season has begun with perhaps its most entertaining opening weekend of all time. It was a fascinating Sunday, which had fans doing what they do best ā talking trash with their buddies. And over the weekend, sports betting entered the early stages of a full-on renaissance -- increasing an incredible 72% year-over-year.
Now, some of that could be chalked up to the excitement around the seasonās start. Indeed, a record four teams overcame double-digit deficits to win or tie their games. Tom Brady crushed on Sunday Night Football. And Patrick Mahomes ruled the Chiefsā opener. It was a pretty incredible start to the season.
But that alone doesnāt explain 72% one-year growth in sports betting volume. Folks, weāre not talking about going to the casino and smoking cigars anymore ā the incredible start to the NFL season coupled with innovative technologies and less restrictive laws are leading to the normalization of sports betting.
The number of people who tried to log into sports betting apps over the weekend was more than 100 million ā and thatās just in America. That means 1 out of 4 Americans were trying to log into sports betting apps. Thatās truly massive! And itās indicative of the broader sports betting trendās upward momentum. Changing laws are converging upon a diminishing stigma. Thatās opening the door for sports betting to take off.
We think that within the next few years, sports betting will become as normal as sports watching. The investment implication? Buy those high-quality sports betting companies and rake in gains as this industry soars.
Sports betting may be in the spotlight due to the hot start to NFL season, but itās not the only industry Iām watching. Two industries weāre bullish on for the next 12 months are the space economy and robotics. Developments on both fronts have us more bullish than ever.
SpaceX had a really big launch this past week, which went off without a hitch. AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) was part of that launch, as its BlueWalker 3 was part of the payload launched into orbit by Elon Muskās SpaceX. If ASTS proves its tech works, we could be looking at perhaps the biggest opportunity in the stock market today. Then thereās Planet Labs (PL), which just reported excellent earnings ā and it was still going strong despite Tuesdayās market turmoil. Thereās a ton of incredible developments going on in the industry right now.
And the same goes for robotics. Amazon (AMZN) just bought Cloostermans ā a warehouse robotics company ā to further automate its operations. This is its second robotics acquisition in a month. The company is making a huge push toward automation here. And this is just the beginning. Weāre extremely bullish on the companies making the technologies and products to service the need for automation.
Soā¦ what are we bearish on? Oil ā Augustās CPI print confirmed it. It was hot enough to ensure that the Fed will go full-throttle to kill inflation. Thatās going to hurt economic activity ā and push oil prices lower. And indeed, the U.S. isnāt the only country to report hotter-than-expected inflation. That means banks around the world will all tighten the belt. And oil will feel it.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is making significant advancements in its war with Russia, clawing back previously held areas from Putin. If that continues, the odds for a semi-diplomatic resolution go up ā as do the odds for the resumption of oil exports. We think oil goes to $65 by the end of this year.
Andā¦ keep staying away from semiconductor stocks.
To hear more, including my thoughts on the recent hot consumer inflation report, solar electric vehicles, and a potential crypto breakout, watch the podcast in full now.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:46 - CPI Print
00:16:28 - Sports Betting
00:23:28 - Energy Storage
00:27:41 - Solar EVs
00:32:00 - Autonomous Vehicles
00:38:55 - Bull vs. Bear
00:51:44 - Bitcoin Breakout?
00:55:43 - Fan Questions!
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sportsbetting #nfl #evs #autonomous #bitcoin #ethereum
Itās no secret that the markets have been struggling lately. But some of our favorite EV stocks have shown some impressive resilience amid the selloff. One that comes to mind is Rivian (RIVN), which could see an even better 2023. Now, why are these stocks outperforming? And more importantly, will this trend continue?
The entire energy trade has been strong ā everything from natural gas, oil, uranium, energy storage, solar, electric vehicles. Indeed, earlier this year, despite soaring battery metal prices, EV sales were still hitting record highs. And this wave is continuing as that āheadwindā has become a tailwind. Battery metal prices are falling, and we think that could lead to EV price reductions in 2023. It seems this energy rally has legs.
This is great timing for a stock like Rivian. Indeed, things are just ramping up for the company here in 2022. But over the next few years, production will really pick up the pace. As the macro environment improves during this ramp, it will really help the companyās sales and margins. And RIVN could be primed for excellence.
Today, investors are simply waiting for the Fed to take inflation out back and shoot it. The only question is: How bad will that collateral damage be? For EVs, a shift in consumer preference is a strong tailwind that should survive no matter how much collateral damage we see. Itās a resilient space.
Now, as Aaron notes in this weekās episode, a slowing economy, falling inflation, and lower yields all set the stage for a market rally into the end of the year. So why arenāt people buying into that rally right now?
Indeed, according to the data weāre seeing, weāre in for falling inflation, a dovish evolution of the Fed, and lower Treasury yields over the coming months. And based on those three things, stocks should rally big into the end of the year.
But if the opposite happens ā inflation stays hot, the Fed remains hawkish, and yields go higher ā stocks will collapse. And the fear of that outcome is so strong that it has investors sitting on the sidelines. They want more proof to emerge before theyāre willing to put some skin in the game.
And we think that proof will come very soon ā in the form of the September CPI print. Itās likely to be much softer than expected and show a rapid deceleration in inflation. And after, weāre likely to hear some dovish Fed commentary about future rate hikes. Given that, stocks should head higher over the next four weeks. But weāve got to get to that print first.
Investors fear CPI will come in hot, and thatās got the markets really choppy. And until we get some clear answers from the Fed, itāll remain that way.
Now, the bear thesis hinges on the idea that inflation is structural. But this isnāt the 1970s. We have so many disinflationary forces at our fingertips today. There are so many tools in the toolkit nowadays that we can adopt as needed to make sure we crush inflation. So, itās highly unlikely that the bear thesis here is correct. Indeed, by 2023, inflation will be a diminishing problem. And all signs point to a mega rally into 2022ās end.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:33 - Rivian Beats the Market
00:07:51 - Short Oil?
00:13:37 - Jobs Report Talk
00:26:45 - Santa Claus Rally
00:37:21 - The September Swoon
00:43:39 - Breakout Trader
00:49:33 - Fan Questions!
This week in our "Hypergrowth Investing" podcast, weāre talking about my "Big Three" investing themes for the rest of the year (and beyond). Youāve probably heard me talk about each one of these themes at one point or another, but Iām a big fan of repetition. The more we repeat things, the more command we hold over our narrative. And my narrative in this case is that if youāre not invested in the Big Three then you may as well not be investing at all.
Our first āBig Threeā megatrend is derived from psilocybin ā yep, weāre talking about magic mushrooms. Psychedelics. Favorable legislation has been setting the stage for psychedelics to do very well over the next couple of years. Importantly, magic mushrooms, molly, LSD, etc., have become somewhat destigmatized in popular culture and among general society.
For instance, two recent studies from Johns Hopkins looked into psilocybin, the active ingredient in āmagic mushrooms.ā They found that it can significantly help with smoking cessation and reducing alcohol dependence.
Another Hopkins study from 2020 examined those with life-threatening cancer diagnoses. It found that psilocybin can relieve anxiety and depression levels four times better than traditional antidepressants.
That finding corroborates a previous NYU study. It found that psilocybin causes a ārapid and sustainedā reduction in anxiety and depression levels in cancer patients.
Thatās excellent news, and itās exactly what we expected.
Some people, however, wonder why I like psychedelics but donāt like pot stocks. I did like pot stocks, once upon a time. But thereās one big differential between marijuana and psychedelics ā the barrier to entry.
Point blank, psychedelics have a bigger moat than marijuana. With weed, anyone can grow it, anyone can smoke/ingest it, and anyone can theoretically start their own marijuana business. The story is different with psychedelics. Why? Well, theyāre not direct-to-consumer. Psychedelics are only available in medical settings as a therapeutic treatment. Thereās a lot of steps that go behind this. For example, you have to go through multi-stage trials and get FDA approval, among other things.
Whatās more, commoditization isnāt a concern with psychedelics. With pot, as it turns out, thereās not going to be a big brand name in the pot space. Or at least not one that takes off on a national, international scale, as weāve seen with beer and liquor. People just donāt care enough about the different strains of weed or even where it came from. For the most part, people will buy whatever it is their connect is selling. And there are just too many different types of marijuana strains for any single one to ever become branded in a meaningful way.
In the psychedelic space, I see one company in particular becoming the āMcDonaldās of Psychedelics.ā That company is COMPASS Pathways (CMPS). To hear about the other two megatrends that make up my āBig Three,ā check out our podcast now!
If they succeed ā and weāre confident they can ā CMPS stock could be Wall Streetās biggest winner of the 2020s.
To make money in these choppy markets, knowing about this revolution and the tiny company leading it are vital. Whatās even more vital is knowing when to invest. Fortunately, I just put together a presentation about how to invest in a stock during its most critical āstage.ā And you can watch it right now! https://bit.ly/3AF4K5l
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:32 - The McDonald's of Psychedelics
00:13:38 - Space Stocks to Watch
00:25:44 - The Robots Are Here
00:30:54 - Clean Energy Boom
00:37:53 - Killing Inflation
00:46:51 - Is Crypto Broken?
00:48:38 - Fan Questions
Lots to cover in this weekās Hypergrowth Investing podcast! Prepare yourself for a hefty discussion on retail earnings, housing data, cryptos, and whether Michael Burry is right to make a rare āDoomsday Callā on the economy.
Front and center, weāre seeing a lot of growth stock buying among āsmart money,ā which is code for āhedge funds.ā Think folks like David Einhorn and Ray Dalio ā two hedge fund managers whose reputations precede them. And this quarter, the pair have invested in one of my top electric vehicle stocks to watch: Rivian (RIVN).
If that isnāt a bullish sign, I donāt know what is.
The bottom line here is that when these funds get into names, they tend to do so with high conviction. That means Einhorn and Dalio could be invested in RIVN stock for years. The fact that they both initiated stakes in Q2 of 2022 means they see a compelling long-term future with Rivian.
As do I.
Itās significant that this is happening during a time of high momentum for the EV space ā and clean energy technology in general. With soaring gas prices, EV sales are hitting record highs at a time when nothing else is. The passing of the Inflation Reduction Act, dubbed āthe climate bill,ā fuels this fire. Naturally, I love this industry right now. In particular, I really love Rivian stock.
Let me contextualize: With my wife and I expecting another child, weāve started our search for a roomier electric vehicle. But weāve run into a problem: There are very few seven-seater EVs on the market right now. And thereās even fewer that are worth buying.
Rivian aims to solve this problem with its upcoming R1S. My use case aside, Rivian is debuting the right car at the right time. Which means it has near-term potential as well as long-term potential.
While I see great things on the horizon for growth stocks, not everyone shares my admittedly rose-colored vision. Itās a little funny ā or maybe a little scary ā but Michael Burry of The Big Short fame sold everything last quarter. And he picked up one stock Ā¬ā private prison operator Geo Group (GEO).
This is obviously a doomsday move.
Burry is a super bear right now and is expecting the labor market to tank and crime to take off. At least heās putting his money where his mouth is.
Something to keep in mind: Burry has a knack for these things. Heās made fortunes in the dot-com crash and financial crisis, when no one else would listen to his bearish forecasts. So, letās take Burryās doomsday call as a reminder of the risks to the bull thesis that we have right now. Instead of rushing into the markets and buying blindly, letās walk. Letās take our time and allow the bull thesis to play out in full.
Did I call it or what? Iām talking about SoFi (SOFI), which popped in response to second-quarter earnings, which were fantastic. SoFiās stock soared as investors digested the report. But then ā a hiccup. SoftBank moved to sell part of its stake in the company, and SOFI shares took a dip. What comes next?
Well, in the current economic environment, fintech companies were expected to report slowing growth and not-so-great earnings. And yet SoFi released superb numbers. Across the board, the key theme there was reaccelerating growth. Management also lifted its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. SoFi is firing on all cylinders.
Remember, Amazon got to where it is by being a one-stop shop for all-things ecommerce. SoFi is following Jeff Bezos & Co.ās blueprint in the fintech space. Weāve been bullish on the stock for a long time now, and weāll continue to be for a lot longer. At the end of the day, SOFI is a long-term growth asset.
Compared to legacy financial giants, SoFi proves to be a lower cost financial platform across the board. Instead of having five or six platforms for your banking purposes, you only need SoFi ā which provides higher yields on savings accounts, better fees on crypto buying, better mortgage rates, better personal loan rates, and so much more.
What more do you want out of your bank?
The advantages that allow SoFi to act as the Amazon of Finance are built into its DNA, meaning itās not easy for a Wells Fargo or Bank of America to replicate. This is more pronounced as SoFi attracts more talented developers to its workforce, allowing it to create a more polished finished product than possible at legacy banks.
That said, itās important to note that weāre not bullish on where the company will be six months from now Ā¬ā weāre focused on its five-, 10-year outlook.
So long as the company continues to power forward, our conviction remains strong. In truth, the move from SoftBank is non-news. Weāre going to stay the course if the fundamentals remain robust, and thatās the case today.
I think this stock could go to $100, $150, even $200 over the coming years, and Iām in it for the long haul.
šTimestampsš
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:35 - SoFi, So Fly
00:11:50 - The Amazon of Housing
00:23:05 - Earnings Season Review
00:30:00 - Market Check In
00:43:30 - Crypto Check In
00:46:00 - Fan Questions!
The Great EV Consolidation is underway, and some electric vehicle stocks in your portfolio may not be around a year from now...
In short, the number of electric vehicle companies will dramatically shrink over the next few years, not unlike that of the gas-powered car boom in the early 1900sā¦ Back then, nearly 500 companies entered the race to capitalize on this technological marvel, but by 1930, less than 50 of them were operating. Cherry on the top: Just three automakers made up 80% of the market.
Itās a natural evolution. And the same thing is happening with EVs today.
Which means that there are fantastic long-term investments and fantastic short-term trades to play the Great EV Consolidationā¦ but only if you pick the right stocks.
To prove my point, electric trucking company Nikola (NKLA) just agreed to acquire battery maker Romeo Power (RMO)! Weāve said before that the EV industry is too crowded, and weāre due for a āgreat consolidation.ā Nikolaās buyout of Romeo is just the beginning.
When a new technological paradigm emerges, everybody wants to start a business around it because they see an immense opportunity to strike it rich. But the market isnāt big enough to sustain all those startups. As an industry matures, it consolidates around a few players. Those left out in the cold either go bankrupt or get acquired.
Guess what? The EV market is maturing. Every time I leave the house, I see a Tesla Model 3, or I see a Tesla Model S, and often find myself in a āTesla sandwich,ā flanked by Tesla EVs on the highway.
Looking at the data, June 2022 saw a record-high number of EV auto sales. The industry has started to become meaningful to the global economy. And I believe that over the next 12 to 36 months, the EV industry will be defined by two things ā rapid growth and rapid consolidation.
The top players that arise out of the EV boom will differentiate themselves from the pack in terms of some major value-add (think: cost, design, performance, or branding). Those electric car titans will attract all the consumer demand, reap all the rewards of the EV Revolution, and squeeze out 90% of the industry.
So, when I look at the EV landscape today, I see a graveyard with a few shining stars.
To make some short-term gains, look for small-cap EV stocks that could be great acquisition targets -- and are not at risk of bankruptcy.
These companies will have an edge over their competitors, plus unrivaled talent and technology.
Investors who take advantage of small, beaten-up, yet high-quality EV stocks primed to be bought out by future titans of industry will see tremendous gains over the coming few years.
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This week, Aaron and I discuss the emerging technology of vertical farming, which aims to solve a major crisis Ā¬ā the global food shortage. Thatās huge. Think about thisā¦ weāve gone from Amazon fixing how we receive our packages, Netflix solving how we watch major entertainment, Facebook solving how we connect with friends and loved ones, and so on. These were āproblemsā to solve, but now, tech has graduated to solving real-world problems, such as food security, energy outages, supply shortages, and more. And indoor farming widely looks to be the solution to a major worldwide problem.
Today, the global food crisis has reached a fever pitch amid COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and myriad other factors that have negatively impacted food production supply chains across the world. Vertical farming, in my opinion, is the most promising solution to this crisis.
By taking one smaller plot of land and growing food vertically in layers, we can increase productivity per square foot by 10X-plus. Now that farmable land is becoming scarcer, indoor farming allows us to start building up instead of out.
Right now, this tech is in its infancy. Most vertical farms in existence today are growing leafy greens, some vegetables ā no meat or wheat production. But this is a great starting point. Long term, I envision skyscraper cities of farms. And thatās a world that can produce much more food than it presently can.
Why is this happening now? Geopolitical tensions have taken a hit to food production, and the world is feeling the urgency. Further, over the past few weeks, weāve seen record-high temperatures around the globe. Weāre beginning to feel the effects of climate change, and unfortunately, this is just the beginning. And itās more incumbent than ever upon technology companies to intervene with next-generation solutions. With this top of mind, Aaron and I dive into alternative energy ā and how it can help to combat these intense global affects.
Temperatures will continue to reach new extremes (in either direction), so we must develop new technologies to adjust to that. And with extreme sun and heat across much of the world, solar is one technology to take advantage of. Battery energy storage solutions are a big part of that. As are hydrogen and wind energy, which will both continue to grow as we shift toward a more sustainable power grid.
In sum, these intense heat waves and rolling blackouts just emphasize our need to create different types of electricity. Until this point, weāve been reliant upon a sole energy source ā natural gas. Itās time to diversify our energy.
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verticalfarming #cleanenergy #foodsecurity #monkeypox #kyliejenner #bostondynamics #investing
If youāre paying attention to the housing market crash, you should also pay attention to what history says comes next. And a historical deep-dive into housing bubble trends tells us thereās nothing to worry about with the current correction. In fact, what weāre seeing today is a great normalization of the housing market, not a great crash in the housing market.
Letās unpack this.
What kicked off the latest downtrend in housing was the National Association of Homebuilders Index, which came in below analyst estimates and fell for the seventh straight month to its lowest level since May 2020. The latest drop was also the second-largest decline in the history of this index. Now, Iāve stated multiple times that the housing market will not crash.
This data still doesnāt change my stance.
For one, weāve seen big drops in the homebuilder index below 60 ā its critical line ā before. Almost always, theyāre one- to three-month drops that donāt lead to home price declines. December 2018, March 2016, March 2015, May 2014, April 2003, October 2001 ā all periods like July 2022, where homebuilder sentiment plunged below 60; and all periods where homebuilder sentiment immediately and strongly rebounded.
The exceptions to the trend were 2008 and the late 1980s. But todayās inventory constraints keep us from repeating those eras. Rather, what weāre looking at is more representative of a housing market thatās normalizing to pre-COVID levels after a two-year period of exceptionally elevated demand. Thatās normal and healthy ā and positive for housing stocks such as Opendoor (OPEN).
And thatās been our thesis for months now. What are the two big reasons behind why I say that? Supply and demand. We are in the most supply-constrained housing market of all time. After the subprime mortgage crash, consumers grew hesitant within the housing market. The lack of consumer confidence and drop-off in demand led to a years-long period of under-building. After COVID hit, demand for homes has gone through the roof (no pun intended). But itāll take a decade of overbuilding for us to crawl our way out of this inventory hole. So, with ultra-low supply and ultra-high demand, you can be sure this is not a housing market crash.
housingmarket #housingbubble #housingcrisis #psychedelics #rivian #canoo #goev #evs #electriccar #investing
The electric car space has been abuzz with RIVN stock after Tim Cook was spotted taking a ride in Rivianās R1T over the weekend. Itās just a bit of fun, honestly, and means absolutely nothing of consequence in the grand scheme. But it did serve one important purposeā¦ proving that Rivian is the EV company to watch right now.
Hereās the nitty gritty on RIVN: The electric truck maker is hitting its production target of 25,000 vehicles this yearā¦ but itās firing some people. This might sound spooky, but itās actually a good thing. The era of āgrow at all costsā is over, and Rivian is focusing on growing strategically and profitably. That paves the way for RIVN stock to take off.
Long term, why am I such a huge fan? Well, Rivian has a great first-mover advantage in the electric pick-up truck market (one that will end up being quite massive) with a very technologically sound, high-performance, and cool-looking electric car. Not to mention it has a fantastic seven-seater SUV that will likely be the premier vehicle in that market once it fully launches.
Further, Rivian has $17 billion on the balance sheet. And when it comes to an early stage industry like this, capital is everything. That amount of cash gives the company a bazooka in a water gun fight. Not to mention, the company is also backed by global titan Amazon (AMZN)ā¦
But RIVN stock isnāt the only electric vehicle company on my radar. Some other major EV news recently broke Ā¬ā that is, Walmart (WMT) has agreed to buy at least 4,500 electric vans from Canoo (GOEV), with the potential for up to 10,000 EVs. The stock majorly popped on this announcement. You probably know Iām a long-term believer in this company, too. So, why is this deal a gamechanger for GOEV stock?
I think Canoo has the most interesting tech in the electric car game. Its modular platform removes all the wasted space inside the vehicle, maximizing square footage by pushing everything out to the vanās edges. Thatās an especially large value prop for big families ā and delivery vans. Thatās the deal we saw with Walmart. By fitting more inventory in its delivery vehicles, the company can minimize transportation and upkeep costs. And Canooās vehicle allows just that.
Similarly, Canooās tech also allows it to attack another major market ā pickup trucks. By maximizing square footage, it can create a truck that allows for a bigger bed without creating a massive vehicle. This will increase demand among construction workers, contractors, etc.
Currently, the companyās issue lies with liquidity. Its quarterly burn rate is about equal to its cash balance, so bankruptcy is a very real concern. The company plans to prove its worth in manufacturing and raise more capital to continue. And the Walmart partnership is a huge step in that direction. It almost ensures the company will be able to raise that nondilutive financing to become cash-flow positive.
And if it finds solid footing, GOEV stock could really rocket high.
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Oil has continued to crash, and itās looking to go lower. In fact, when compared to the oil bull market of 2007-09, oilās current trajectory looks eerily similar. And what comes next? Well, if this pattern continues, oil is due for a major crash. Indeed, we are getting a bonafide repeat of 2008 in the commodities markets, including oil. And these commodity wipeouts only happen when the markets shift to a recessionary trade.
A few weeks back, we brought attention to our āshort oilā thesis, and weāve become increasingly bullish on this idea. Why? Because oil performs terribly in recessions, and thatās the base case at this point. I see a lot of folks attempting to buy the dip, and this is one falling knife that youād do better to back away from.
Renewable energy, however, is a completely different story.
As opposed to fossil fuels, clean energies have very positive learning curves. That means that the more we use, produce, and learn about them, the cheaper they become. And in fact, the oil giants themselves are not investing in ways to better produce oil ā theyāre putting their money into hydrogen instead.
Makes sense. Big Oil companies are best-suited to bring the Hydrogen Economy out into the spotlight. Their engineers are well-equipped to work with products on a molecular scale, as hydrogen requires. Not to mention that it can be pumped into natural gas pipelines and gas stations. The logistics behind hydrogen are similar to that of fossil fuels, and thatās why Big Oil giants are shifting their attention to it.
Elsewhere in the recessionary landscape, weāre hearing a lot about a housing market crash. Well, thatās not very likely. Because over the past 60 years, there have only been four instances of sustained home price contraction. The housing market moves at a snailās pace. And because of that, it takes a long time for strong home price appreciation to fall to negative growth. It would be unprecedented for home prices to plunge into the red from where they are today. From that perspective, anyone screaming āhousing market crash!ā is greatly overstating the situation.
Demand is a proven, durable driver, even during recessions. Itās still strong today. And considering that the current housing supply is so low, prices really canāt depreciate. Home builders are losing confidence and are holding firm in their prices. And so are home sellers. We may see a brief decline in the market for a few months, but then itāll be business as usual once again.
Now, what does that mean for Opendoor? Well, it sells homes over a 90-day period and gains a 5% commission per home sale. Home depreciation is usually around 1% per month. So, after three months, it may lose 3%, but it will still sell on a 2% gross margin. Indeed, itās still a positive gross margin business even if the pricing algorithms were terrible (and theyāre not). More likely, it should be able to reel in between 4% and 8% margins Ā¬ā and thatās not priced into the stock at all. Bottom line here: Iām very confident in Opendoorās model.
Trading action this week indicates that the market is fully embracing a recession. Stocks are down. Yields are crashing. Oil is falling under $100. When a recession is happening, you have to think about what will happen after. Indeed, every recession is followed by an expansion. Itās time to welcome the long-term thinking.
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oil #hydrogen #cleanenergy #opendoor #evs #investing #stocks #stockstobuy #stockstowatch
NIO (NIO) stock and other electric car stocks ā” are ready to turn the corner higher after the Chinese government announced it was considering āextreme measuresā to boost manufacturing output.
Thatās major news for Chinese EV stocks like NIO.
China is the heart of the EV economy. In fact, 60% of global EV battery manufacturing happens there. So, as goes Chinaās manufacturing output, so goes the EV industry. The faster companies can produce these vehicles, the faster theyāll achieve profitability. And their stocks will quickly rise.
China has also announced that itās extending tax breaks for first-time electric vehicle buyers. Those were set to expire at the end of this year. But considering continued economic choppiness and supply chain issues, itās extending the breaks into 2023 ā and possibly beyond.
That should drive continued demand. And with both demand and supply drivers bolstered, the bull thesis on EV stocks is strengthening. Thatās especially so for NIO, one of Lukeās favorite EV stocks to buy today.
NIO #lidar #powell #selfdriving #bullwhip #michaelburry #fed #investing #stocks #stockstobuy #stockstowatch
Welcome back to our weekly podcast ā Hypergrowth Investing ā where Aaron Davis and I chat it up about everything from electric vehicles and augmented reality to cryptos and the metaverse. In this weekās episode, we kick things off with a fire sale! Specifically, how Big Tech stocks are priced for an impending recession.
But does that mean you should buy the dip with both hands? After all, companies like Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) are riding the struggle bus for a reason. Despite this, Iām still holding onto my Netflix subscription. Are you?
Switching gears, we discuss the housing market ā and compared to the previous housing bubble and subsequent crash, is there actually anything in common between now and 2007-08?
Now, demand is falling in a way thatās consistent to what we saw before the subprime mortgage crisis between 2007 and 2010. But the supply side of the housing market equation is about three to four times below where it would need to be to get an outcome like in 2008. We have far fewer homes on the market today ā and a long way to go until home prices stabilize and then decline.
With this setup, weāll likely get a return to pre-COVID housing conditions ā meaning an equilibrium, not a crash.
That said, the U.S. economy is very likely headed into a recession. The question is, will it be a shallow recession or deep recession?
When most hear the āRā word, they go right back to 2008. But a normal recession isnāt like what we experienced then. Weāre talking more like a 2% to 3% increase in unemployment. Wage growth may slow a little but should remain positive. And stocks could fall another 10% to 15% -- but nothing near as catastrophic as what we saw during the 2008 financial crisis.
Believe it or not, a recession is actually a good thing. The economy and the markets can handle a downturn. What it canāt deal with is stagflation ā a decade of loss because we canāt get a grip on runaway inflation. To ensure that doesnāt happen, we need to stamp out inflation as quickly as possible. And a recession is the fastest way to do it. Itāll wipe out the marketās excess and set us up for a new bull market and a prolonged period of economic growth.
Watch now to hear my full back-and-forth on what could be the biggest short opportunity since 2008.
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Welcome, folks! Itās that time of the week, when we release the latest episode of our podcast, Hypergrowth Investing. And in todayās show, Aaron Davis and I take an in-depth look at the hot topic of the year ā inflation!
After a red-hot May consumer price index (CPI) print, stocks are tanking on fears that the Federal Reserve is no longer capable of providing a soft landing. With runaway inflation continuing to climb, the Fed will have to ramp up the rate hikes to avoid a stagflationary environment.
The central bank is considering ā and will likely execute ā a 75-basis-point hike in June. Thatās big ā it hasnāt happened since November 1994. Whatās more, it increases the chances of a hard landing and a spiral into a recession, which some see as the only salve to persistent inflation.
A āleakā of those plans to The Wall Street Journal allowed the market to prepare for this incoming blow and let the Fed hold onto its credibility. But the fact the central bank must resort to tactics of leaking information to the media shows that its credibility is on shaky ground. From here, itāll talk up a very hawkish path ā and no one will be angered by a dovish surprise.
But thereās a precedent for this kind of ājumboā hike. In fact, the last two times the Fed hiked rates at this level, it had to cut them in subsequent months. Jumbo hikes usually indicate that weāre at the end of a tightening cycle. So, hereās what I believe: The central bank will hike 75 bps in June and July, and then weāll hit the pause into the end of the year.
While Iām bullish on the 12-month outlook for the market, the question on everyoneās mind is: How low can stocks go? Assume a recession is going to happen, and then work from there. During the 2008 recession, corporate earnings dropped 60% ā a massive wipeout. In 2000-01, corporate earnings fell about 30%. And during the recession of 1989-91, earnings dove around 25%.
If we see a deep recession similar to 2008, earnings will fall 60%. And if weāre hit by a shallower recession, like those of 1989 and 2000, earnings will drop closer to 30%. Well, in terms of balance sheets, both consumers and corporations are very strong. And so is the labor market. So, itās very likely that the recession we get will be shallow.
If earnings do fall, it will be offset by some equity multiple expansion ā usually between 25X and 30X. Applied to the S&P, youād get a price target of over 4,000 within the next 12 to 24 months. Compared to current levels, weāre looking at a fundamental bottom right now. In other words, the S&P is either fairly valued or undervalued today.
And that means itās a great time to go dip-buying.
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federalreserve #fed #recession #investing #stocks #stockstobuy #stockstowatch
To kick off this weekās episode, we check in with one of my favorites ā SoFi stock. U.S. President Biden is considering cancelling some amount of student loan debt, which has created sentimental overhang on SoFiās business. You know what I think? Itās time to rip off the Band-Aid already, Biden!
At the end of the day, this student loan debt āsideshowā is really just a drop in the ocean. That is, it wonāt have a material impact on SoFiās business. And guess who knows that? SoFiās CEO. Over the past month, heās accumulated $1.1 million of SOFI stock ā and year-to-date, heās gobbled up $2.3 million.
I repeat: This student loan cancellation is a sideshow for SOFI stock. Donāt sweat the dip and, instead, join in on the massive insider buying.
But news from the White House hasnāt been all bad recently. Itās announced that despite the ongoing investigation into Chinese manufacturersā potential solar tariff circumvention, there will be no new solar tariffs for at least the next two years.
This has kicked off a solar āgold rush,ā where the next 24 months will see the most robust growth for the U.S. solar industry. The solar projects that were previously waiting in the wings will rush online. And those that were even considering this undertaking will accelerate their window to make it happen within this tariff-free time frame.
Bottom line: Solar stocks are a great play here ā but energy storage stocks are even better.
Speaking of alternative energy, Aaron and I switch gears a bit to revisit EVs. GM recently announced its brand-new all-electric Hummer, and Iāve been convinced that legacy automakers can compete in the EV race. But I still donāt think itās a reason to buy their stocks. For every EV they sell, thereās a gas-powered car that they wonāt ā which means theyāll be cannibalizing their own sales. Trade below their historically low averages.
And despite the lack of pizzazz surrounding the recent developer conference, I believe the Apple Car will happen. Apple is known for its tight lips and not releasing major news until a product is ready for market ā and ready to change the world. I think that by 2026, there will be a lot of buzz about it.
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SOFI #sofistock #sofistockprediction #hummer #evs #applecar #investing #stocks #stockstobuy #stockstowatch
After a few weeks of pulse-checks on the major players in the electric vehicle space, my co-host Aaron Davis and I revisit NIO stock.
COVID lockdowns and supply chain shakeups in China have been weighing on the company, but now things seem to be easing. Shanghai has moved to end its two-month lockdown, giving hope that any new lockdowns in the future will be shorter and much less intense.
The Chinese economy canāt withstand more dramatic slowdowns, and citizen pushback against strict lockdowns is getting stronger. This means that COVID protocols wonāt be a deterrent to production, and EV stocks are catching a bid on that ā NIO stock included.
The company already has very strong demand and has now successfully expanded into Europe. And weāre hearing murmurs that NIO is trying to break into the U.S. market. If supply chains continue to normalize, NIOās sales could see tremendous growth.
Bigger picture, Chinaās recent lockdown and supply chain strife is almost the last domino to fall, so to speak. Over the past year, global supply chain issues have been easing. And in some cases, things seem to be back to pre-pandemic levels. If supply chains are running smoothly, that means there is greater supply -- a strong driver of deflation. And as this continues to improve, inflation will become less and less of a problem.
Further, something incredible is happening in the markets right nowā¦ something I havenāt seen since March 2020, when COVID first shook the world. That is, insider buying! Transactions among insiders has continued at unprecedented levels. Spikes like this have historically coincided with a near-term bottom right after a major selloff. After all, these are the folks who know the ins and outs of their businesses intimately -- more than any outsider could ever know.
Fundamentally speaking, if theyāre buying, you want to be buying too. This insider buying trend is only getting bigger, and Iām insanely bullish on this trend.
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NIO #NIOstock #niostockanalysis #memestocks #investing #stocks #stockstobuy #stockstowatch
Snap stockās earning report hit like the markets like a gut punch. Not since the emergence of COVID-19 have I heard something so terrifying as Snapās remarks on the advertising industry.
As a result, Snap shares were off nearly 40% Tuesday after reporting that it would miss its second-quarter targets. So what are you to do? Do you sell whatever Snap shares you own? Do you buy more on the cheap?
Folks, donāt overthink this oneā¦ We think this is a golden opportunity to buy into what we believe will be the cornerstone of next-generation tech companies!
The only impediment right now is the ad slowdown. But come onā¦ that wonāt last. Snap is a super-sticky social media platform with 330 million daily active users, reaching 75% of the 13-to-34 year-old demographic across 20+ countries. When the ad slowdown ends (and it will end), Snap will come out on the other side stronger than before.
Hereās the thing ā Snap isnāt even trying to be a social media company anymore. Rather, itās on the precipice of becoming the next-gen leader in the shift from a 2D to a 3D-enabled internet. I talk about this in depth in this weekās podcast.
Bottom line: Snap stock is a fantastic long-term play on an emerging next-gen technology. At current levels -- if you're looking to buy and hold for the next three years -- I just can't recommend passing this one up.
We kick things off this week by digesting inflation as we see it through the lens of the consumer price index (CPI) print for April, which came out last week. And thereās good and bad news. Itās lower than what it was -- but higher than what we expected. Does this mean weāve hit peak inflation?
Iām one of those people who believe it has. As we enter the back half of 2022, the year-ago laps are going to be much tougher, and itāll be harder to have a hot year-over-year print. Thatās why many -- us included -- believe peak inflation has arrived.
But thatās not the major indicator.
Instead, we want to see inflation decelerating in the month-over-month rates, which has slowly begun. But does that mean inflation will go away anytime soon? Probably not. I think weāve got a long way to go to fight this battle and it will be a rather painstakingly slow process to return to ~2% inflation rates.
Weāre talking another 16 to 20 months.
The 10-year yield has begun to stabilize and, thanks to easing inflation, should continue to do so. And that will allow stocks to push higher if earnings remain strong.
Although, in the event oil marches higher this summer with rising demand, inflation may jump as well -- and with rate hikes projected from the Fed, that could be a recipe for disaster for the 10-year and for stocks.
However, Iāve noticed a ton of insider buying at Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), DocuSign (DOCU), and SoFi (SOFI), where execs have all been buying the dip in a big way. And thatās because these management teams believe in their ability to cut expenses, ride through the market volatility, and grow rapidly on the other side.
Indeed, insider buying volume has spiked to a two-year high. And simultaneously, insider selling has dropped to a two-year low. The last time this happened was in March 2020 -- right around the bottom of the pandemic-driven selloff.
This is a pretty bullish indicator. The fact that insiders are buying and not selling has us excited about the stocks theyāre accumulating.
To hear more, hit the jump to watch and listen now.
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:00 - Peak Inflation
0:11:50 - Insider Buying
0:16:42 - Is the Fed Wrong
0:29:00 - Ford vs. Rivian
0:31:41 - Elon on TWTR
0:35:43 - The Terra Aftermath
0:43:50 - Fan Questions!
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Insiderbuying #SOFI #RIVN #SPOT #Inflation #Stocks
We kick off this episode by tackling a topic thatās been trending lately -- the āEverything Bubble.ā Soā¦ what does that even mean?
Well, it requires a look back to 2008. When the financial world was on the verge of ruin, the U.S. Federal Reserve pumped enormous amounts of stimulus into the economy. Those policies were meant to be a temporary medicine for the great financial crisis, but they stuck around as the economy struggled to get its groove back. And in 2020, when COVID-19 struck, the pattern repeated -- the Fed pumped tons of stimulus into the economy without taking any out. We call it āmarket heroin.ā
And all that excess liquidity the economyās enjoyed for so long has contributed to this āeverything bubble.ā Itās why housing prices have soared, why stock valuations have ballooned, why start-ups have raised enormous amounts of capital for cheap. And if the Fed is forced to pop this bubble, the economy will be in the worst shape itās been in our lifetimes.
The key to making the most of the market washout is finding those fundamentally great -- yet demolished -- stocks among the wreckage. And one of our favorites is still SoFi (SOFI). The stock got clobbered in sympathy with Upstartās poor guidance and subsequent nosedive. Yes, theyāre both fintech companies with exposure to lending, but they are so profoundly different that this selloff in SOFI stock is ludicrous.
We saw this same irrationality in the last go-round of social media earnings. Meta (FB) had an awful print, and then all social media stock tanked. Snap (SNAP) dropped around 40% and then -- after reporting fantastic numbers -- jumped 50%. The behavior of the markets right now doesnāt make sense. Put on your blinders and ignore the noise. Invest in what you have a high degree of confidence in and hold for the long term.
The more conviction you have, the more youāll be rewarded.
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:08 - The 'Everything Bubble'
0:11:56 - The Rolling Bear Market
0:28:11 - Do Small Caps Need FANG?
0:31:52 - Predicting the Fed Pivot
0:43:43 - The Crypto Level to Watch
0:48:34 - Fan Questions!
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SOFI #SoFiStock #MarketCrash #Fed #Earnings #stocks #investing
š https://divergence2022.com
In this weekās episode, Aaron and I return to the āscandalousā claim I made a few months back -- perhaps the biggest of my career. Thatās saying a lot, because I make bold claims all the time. But among my biggest, boldest, wildest of all time is that Big Tech is dead.
At the time, folks thought I was a bit nuts. But this year, weāre seeing this come to fruition.
Over the past few weeks, there have been some massive declines across Big Tech stocks. One of the most massive was a 71% drop in Netflix (NFLX) stock.
Many think my rationale for believing Big Tech is dead hinges on government regulation or consumers boycotting platforms over censorship.
But my rationale for claiming Big Tech is dead is neither of those. Rather, itās much more fundamental in nature.
Big Tech is dead because of competition.
Weāre 10-plus years into these exponential growth industries, and formidable competitors are catching up.
The playing fields in the industries that Big Tech have dominated are evening out. As they are, Big Tech is losing its edge.
Bottom line: Thereās a changing of the guard taking place, and itās time to jump into small-cap tech stocks.
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:20 - Big Tech Is Dead
0:16:18 - Divergence 2022
0:22:43 - Our XR Future
0:31:39 - Stock Market Today
0:39:08 - The Crypto Correlation
0:41:34 - Fan Questions!
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BigTech #NFLX #FB #smallcapstocks #investing #stocks
What happens at Netflix stays at Netflixā¦ including a distinct lack of innovation.
Which is why, last week, Netflix (NFLX) stock dropped quite the bomb with its quarterly report. The companyās growth not only stalled out -- it crashed and burned. After reporting the loss of more than 200,000 subscribers, NFLX stock fell into a tailspin.
Is this fail indicative of a broader trend for other streaming stocks? Luke doesnāt think so. This problem is endemic to Netflix.
Luke breaks down Netflixās current problems, beginning with its long history of robust innovation. After all, Netflix was the first successful DVD delivery service. Soon after, it pioneered solo streaming and original content. But since then, Netflix hasnāt executed on its new innovations, while other streaming competitors have caught up to Netflixās original content ambitions.
As a result, NFLX is feeling the burn.
But there is a company going above and beyond original content to incorporate some great value-addsā¦ Itās a unique sports-focused streaming service thatās integrating sports betting with picture-in-picture viewing. If it succeeds, it could easily surpass 10 million, 15 million, 20 million subscribers in the U.S. alone, making great revenue at high margins.
So forget Netflix stock for now, and consider streaming stocks that are innovating their way into new phases of hypergrowth.
šTimestampsš
0:00:00 - Intro
0:02:00 - Netflix's Big Problem
0:12:42 - Earnings Review
0:20:40 - Stock Talk: MTCH, PLUG
0:27:34 - Solar Tariff Probe
0:33:40 - Travel Boom
0:38:45 - Housing Bubble
0:51:05 - The Market's Big 3
01:01:33 - Crypto Breakout
01:04:07 - Fan Questions!
š Subscribe on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/c/HypergrowthInvesting?sub_confirmation=1
Netflix #NFLX #Earnings #Housing #Crypto #Investing #Stocks
In this weekās episode, Aaron and I discuss the marketās most major recent developments, including re-assessing my bull thesis on QuantumScape stock.
As it stands, the long-term thesis remains intact for QS stock. While electric cars and EV charging stocks remain in focus in the here and now, we can't talk EVs without discussing energy storage. And QuantumScape projects to be the leader in solid-state batteries, long-term.
Are we going to see an acceleration toward clean energy, where everyone has an energy storage solution to power their homes? And when is it the right time to buy QS stock? We break down the timeline here and where it's all heading.
However, what's soon to be driving the market's action is a rare phenomenon that offers a generational buying opportunity -- divergence.
Every once in a while, a companyās stock price diverges from its revenue and/or earnings trend line. While revenues and earnings continue to move higher, the stock price sinks lower. This opens a window of divergence that continues to widen.
Eventually, as that window stretches larger, stocks snap back to their equilibrium to move in tandem with earnings. And the divergence becomes a convergence.
When that happens, the returns are massive.
But the market is made of many moving parts, so this divergence isnāt the only piece to watch. Of particular note, weāre watching earnings season for hints as to whatās yet to come.
Over the coming weeks, more and more companies will report earnings. With a spiking Treasury yield, price-earnings (P/E) multiples are compressing -- and the trajectory of earnings will determine where stocks go.
This could be really good or really bad for stocks. But weāre not in the business of making lofty predictions. Weāve still got a long way to go, so get comfortable.
Weāre wading through some bigger topics here, so make sure you catch this weekās full episode!
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In this weekās episode, Aaron and I check back in on some of the stocks weāve been super bullish on of late. Most notably: SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI).
Folks have been a bit on edge with the stock ever since President Joe Biden extended the countryās student loan moratorium. SoFi got its start in the student loan realm, so investors are understandably worried about the impact on SoFiās future. Us? Not so much.
Yes, itās true that student loan refinancing is a large part of SoFiās business todayā¦ but guess what? This moratorium doesnāt change my bull thesis on SOFI stock one bit.
Think about it like this: Once upon a time, Jeff Bezos hinged Amazon.comās success on selling books, just like SoFi hinged its success on student loans. But today, Amazonās (NASDAQ:AMZN) book-selling business represents -- what? -- a fraction of a percent of its overall business? The same will be true for SoFi, as it's building an all-in-one āsuper appā in which student loan refinancing is an afterthought.
It's why we call it āthe Amazon of Finance.ā
In short, SoFiās big-picture vision is much larger than its student loan offerings. And end game, the student loan moratorium will register just a little blip on the radar.
But thatās not all we cover this weekā¦ Aaron and I also get into the three major factors looming over the stock market right now -- the U.S. Federal Reserve, Russia-Ukraine war, and Covid outbreaks in China.
What does this mean for stocks going forward? Listen and watch now to find out!
In this weekās episode, Aaron and I kick off with the hottest electric vehicle (EV) stock in the game ā Lucid Group (LCID). š„
If you only recently started listening to my podcast, you may not know that Iāve been bullish LCID stock for a while. Thereās just so much to love about Lucid, including its Lucid Air Dream Edition -- the first car with the talent, technology, resources, and experience to beat Tesla in the EV game. But what places Lucid stock among todayās long-term winners?
For starters, the best technology always wins out when it comes to tech megatrends. Sounds simple, but most folks seem to miss this. So, itās no surprise that my bullishness on LCID is derived from its elite EV technology and talent. Its team comprises folks from the two best consumer hardware companies on Earth -- Tesla and Apple. Headed up by the best of the best, Lucid is likely to hold its lead in the premium electric car space.
But LCID stock isnāt the only company on my mind todayā¦ Aaron and I also talk about the top autonomous vehicle (AV) stocks to buy now.
With most folks driving non-autonomous electric vehicles, AVs are clearly behind in terms of adoption. However, the AV Revolution is still progressing nicely... Look no further than the delivery of goods ā including the likes of Dominoās, 7-Eleven and Kroger orders ā and even the delivery of people.
Yes, most autonomous vehicles today are in beta, but this shows that weāre very near the inflection point of AV tech.
For AVs to really take off, the underlying technology must be extremely robust. The best minds in the space believe this involves a three-pronged approach -- camera, LiDAR, and radar. Since itās a very complex and expensive technology, LiDAR is where the investment potential is. Which is why I believe one of the strongest plays for AVs lies with the leading LiDAR suppliers.
Watch our podcast now to hear my full analysis on Lucid, the Autonomous Vehicle Revolution, and more!
In this weekās episode, Aaron and I return to the topic garnering lots of buzz lately ā SoFi, the āAmazon of Finance.ā
One of my core beliefs as an investor is that you should invest in products and services that you love Ā¬ā and boy do I love SoFi. Why? Well, for starters, consumer banking is a terrible experience. Everything you hate about the way traditional banking works, SoFi has fixed.
And theyāve done so by building a tech-first empire from the ground up. We are incredibly bullish on this company and truly believe it will soon become the leader in fintech Ā¬ā by a mile.
The two also get into the weeds of the latest in hypergrowth, from QuantumScapeās big win to Teslaās stock split, EV stocksā market takeover to the meaning behind the yield curve inversion and developments in the cybersecurity sector. And howās Ethereum looking lately?
We chop it up on everything moving markets today, so be sure to watch from beginning to end!
n this weekās episode, Aaron and I discuss what could be the āholy grailā of batteries šš -- the solid-state battery. Lithium-ion cells are the status quo of today, and they power pretty much everything ā your smartphone, laptop, electric vehicle.
But since they comprise liquids and can only be compressed so much, they arenāt the most energy-dense. And we see this limitation all around us. Itās why that EV in your parking space canāt drive long ranges or recharge very fast ā and why that smartphone in your pocket will run out of juice by the end of the day. š±ā”
The plain truth about the Electric Vehicle Revolution that everyone is so hyped-up about is that it wonāt go mainstream until we make better batteries. Enter solid-state battery technology ā much smaller, more effective and energy-dense than their liquid-state counterparts. These āforever batteries,ā as insiders have dubbed them, will fundamentally alter the way things work in society ā and unlock a potentially multi-trillion-dollar revolution in the process.
But since the science is so complex and these batteries are so expensive to make at present, this is still a lab project. That said, I believe thereās company in this proverbial classroom that everyone is going to want to cheat off of ā QuantumScape (QS). As QuantumScape scaled up testing over the past year and a half, itās proven to have a fantastic solid-state concept.
This company could be a huge long-term winner. š²š²š²
Check out the podcast to hear my thoughts!
In this week's episode, Aaron and I kick off by diving into everything going on with NIO Inc. While NIO stock was previously taking it pretty hard on the chin, today's rally has come just as hard and fast... and there are a few things going on here.
Namely, with regard to NIO's precipitous decline and subsequent uptrend, rising geopolitical tensions have caused Americans to feel less comfortable with Chinese companies raising money in and being listed on U.S. exchanges. And there are murmurs of a potential delisting by the SEC. But this fear isn't new -- and unless China moves to support Russia in this war, it will dissipate.
This happens every time U.S.-China relations get strained, and the fear that things will get worse was (up until today) driving Chinese stocks like NIO into the ground. Yet through it all, NIO remains the unrivaled leader of EV technology in China. And no matter what happens in the U.S., that will not change. NIO will continue to innovate, launch new cars, expand into Europe (and possibly the U.S.)... so if you back out these delisting fears, NIO stock is exceptionally attractive at its current perch.
However, delisting fears aren't the only factor driving NIO stock... Soaring nickel prices have also spooked investors when it comes to NIO and EVs at large -- but the relative added input cost is just a drop in the ocean for EV prices. What's more, new Covid-19 outbreaks in China have led to some lockdowns in the country, possibly hindering the supply chain once again. This could lead to an even more terrible inflation situation.
So, considering the delisting fears, higher nickel prices, and Covid-19 resurgence... is NIO stock a good buy right now? What will happen to the current rally if NIO does get delisted?
Check out the podcast to hear my thoughts!
Aaron and Luke kick off by tackling whatās looming for most -- is a recession inbound? With the yield curve rapidly flattening, the probability of an economic recession is higher than itās been in years.
Luke talks about the emergence of a rolling bear market and some market indicators pointing to a downturn. But he notes that if we do see a recession, it wonāt be like 2008 -- rather, it will be mundane and short. And remember that money is made in bear markets. Be aware and prepare.
So whatās the play right now? Growth stocks. They will continue to grow at lightning speed regardless of what happens with the broader economy. History repeats itself, and this time is no different: the best time to buy world-changing hypergrowth stocks is during times just like the one weāre in now.
And even before Google announced its acquisition of Mandiant, Lukeās been all-in on cybersecurity. The stage is set for the industryās hugely accelerated spending over the next decade. Bar none, cybersecurity is the most important in an enterpriseās technology stack -- not to mention a governmentās. Itās been lagging for a long time, and now the Russo-Ukrainian war has thrust cyberthreats front and center.
Speaking of the Eastern European conflict, weāve seen it hasten the spike in oil prices. Itās been on a tear lately. But at the risk of striking any nerves, Lukeās got something to say: the oil trade is for suckers. As more people turn to ridesharing technology and renewable energy, oil is facing incredible demand destruction. And he thinks this will end horribly for the archaic fossil fuel industry.
Crypto also saw a boom in the wake of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but it looks like theyāve quickly given up those gains. As Luke mentioned, thereās a correlation between the crypto market and growth stocks. BTC may be digital gold one day, but it isnāt yet. The truth is āsafe havenā and āgrowthā donāt mix. The strategy? Hunker down and wait.
This week, we kick things off by talking about āthe weaponizationā of finance in the Russo-Ukrainian war, specifically economic sanctions. How does our weapon of choice affect the global economy? š Most of all, will it work? Going deeper, Aaron and I take a look at how the Ukraine invasion has created a cocktail of outperformance for growth assets, particularly cybersecurity, clean energy, and cryptocurrencies. And in the vein of Eastern European happenings, we also touch on Elon Muskās Starlink intervention in Ukraine ā particularly focusing on the broader āspace techā category. With the emergence of cyberwarfare, space tech functionality will be dire from here on out.
We're back with a new episode, in which Aaron and Luke talk about the biggest black cloud over markets right now --- the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. šØ How might the Russian invasion of Ukraine ripple throughout the global economy, or is it mostly a nonevent for markets?
Pivoting to the crypto markets, Luke lends his insight into the Crypto Correlation. That is, if folks are buying stocks, they're probably buying cryptos, too. Long-term, this is a good thing. But near-term? Well, there's Putin, inflation, and the Fed to make things interesting, to say the least. Which is why Aaron and Luke chat about how to play the crypto markets while trading remains choppy.
And speaking of fintech, Luke wears his love for SoFi on his sleeve. No surprise he's bullish SOFI stock! When all's said and done, SoFi will emerge as the Next Wells Fargo... or the Bank of the Future. It is building an empire. And the stock is way undervalued. There are a lot of competitors in this space, but SoFiās team is superb -- putting them head and shoulders above the rest.
Similar to how SoFi is redefining the way we bank, Lucid is redefining transportation. And, like the fintech realm, there are tons of competitors here. But what does Luke love about Lucid? Listen to find out!
What's more, Luke and Aaron also discuss the bull case for Matterport stock. In a nutshell, donāt get spooked like the market did; the company is struggling with supply chain issues, and itās made its software so good that itās cannibalizing the need for its own cameras. But thatās actually great long-term, says Luke. The more it can get into the software space, the better off it will be.
Lastly, Aaron and Luke get into the weeds with whatās going on with the Trump SPAC rally. Truth be told -- no pun intended -- thereās a huge chunk of the population who are suspicious of Facebook, who distrust government, and who dislike censorship. And so thereās a solid story here. It just comes down to execution.
If youāre one of those people who watch the Super Bowl for the commercials, boy were you in for a treat! While cryptocurrencies were already in the public eye, LeBron James teamed up with Crypto.com to take them to the big leagues. šŖ But there was a surprise winner on the Super Bowl stage, too: electric vehicles. š
Luke believes we are on the cusp of this tech breakout into the mainstream, with time to buy before the boom. In this episode, Aaron and Luke kick off with some hot topics of the week, starting with the Super Bowl jolt that gave hypergrowth and emerging tech a bullish push.
Butā¦ thereās still the matter of the Fed. Specifically, what the Federal Reserve will -- or wonāt -- do when it comes to inflation.
Aaron and Luke delve into this fear and talk about the possible outcomes. If the Fed does lift interest rates seven or eight times, we are in for one heck of a market crash! Butā¦ the Fedās got smarts, so try not to panic yet. š
With this fear swirling, investors have decided to bet against long-term assets, and weāre seeing a short interest in small-cap stocks -- with a possible short-squeeze mania on the horizon.
And speaking of long-term assets, Aaron and Luke discuss playing offense -- and defense -- in your portfolio to endure a potentially volatile market. Is there indeed a housing bubble brewing? š” Luke lets you know what to look out for when it comes to success in the stock market.
In this episode, Aaron and Luke address the Peloton-sized elephant in the room.Ā šSometimes you get it right; sometimes you get it wrong. And Luke will admit that when it comes to Peloton stock, perhaps he was dead wrong.Ā š
Next up: tech earnings -- and itsĀ biggest loss in history. Facebook, err,Ā Meta, made headlines with a $220 billion wipeout in a single day, and Luke believes itās likely to keep losing users for the foreseeable future. Could Instagram follow course as well?
And there are a new āBig 3ā when it comes to EV stocks: Nio, Rivian and Lucid. Luke is all about Nio, the āTesla of China,ā and discusses how he thinks its fantastic tech could be adopted in other parts of the world. Lucid is a mega player, and Rivian could be king of electric trucks. But Luke still has his favorite(s).
Meanwhile, crypto regulation is looming, which has a lot of folks concerned.Ā šLuke and Aaron talk about how regulation is actually a good thing when it comes to mass adoption. Itās a benefit to the users of crypto -- and the world agrees.
And last, but certainly not least, the two chat about inflation.Ā Will inflation curb the market rally? šThe Consumer Price Index comes later this week, and people are expecting a hot number. With inflation looming, Luke talks about the potential impact on the current stock rebound.
Everything's for Sale! š
The only question is which stocks and cryptos should you buy for 10X+ gains? š¤
The answer to that isā¦ the ones that will become the next Amazon, the next Tesla, or the next Ethereum!
Hypergrowth megatrends like e-commerce, EVs and blockchain arenāt going anywhere, so if you can find picks with āBig Tech potentialā in this market, youāll see massive gains over the coming years.šĀ
Which is why in this episode, Luke and Aaron dive deep into the past weekās bloody aftermath to see which hypergrowth tech stocks could become tomorrowās major players, giving you a shortlist of the decadeās best deals.
What is crashing the market? Honestly, there are a ton of factors -- wild overvaluations, U.S. Federal Reserve policies, fear in the markets and so much more. Itās a lot to take in. Thatās why Luke and Aaron are here to explain what the future may look like -- and how to be ready for it. šŖš»
šTo survive this market volatility, youāre going to want to understand exactly the root causes of any so-called "superbubble." šø Luke breaks down the factors, including Fed policy, that contributed to the current market volatility and explains how they did so.
And with crypto crashing, many believe the metaverse and NFT markets are toast. š
Luke puts these fears to bed, however, explaining what others are missing and shares little-known metaverse opportunities outside of the gaming niche. š”He also offers the true potential of NFTs that most donāt understand...
Metaverse Stocks may be the best stock to buy for inflation in 2022.
With the smaller tech stocks and most altcoins getting crushed right now, the best option may come in the form of tech giants like Microsoft ($MSFT) who just acquired Activision Blizzard ($ATVI).
Or Maybe Apple ($AAPL) a company that is already dominating the mobile gaming, and huge part of the metaverse, market and is soon going to be making a play in AR/VR.
Are you going to buy these kinds stocks as your answer to inflation in 2022?
Is It Time To Get Out Of The Markets? Many of the Innovative tech stocks have taken a beating, and so have alt-coins. So many are wondering how to profit in the 2022 market ...
Is it a safe time to put your money in the cryptocurrency market? And which tech stocks actually have a future in 2022 and beyond? Is it possible to profit in the 2022 market?
Theres been a ton of fear and uncertainty in the markets causing many investors to get out of the markets completely, but with inflation on the rise, holding cash may not be such a good idea.
There has to be a way to profit in 2022... (check the time stamps below to see how)
That's why today, Luke Lango and Aaron Davis are diving deep into the markets to break down what is really going on.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
05:00 Fed policy tightening. Tech stocks crashing. Why? What happens next?
05:39 Winding down their balance sheet.
06:07 Tightning Rates at a very fast rate
06:37 Less Cash in the economy
07:00 Rate Hikes are coming sooner than anticipated?
07:22 Is inflation causing this or slower growth
10:15 Major Indexes or barely off their highs
10:30 40% of Stocks are down over 50%
10:45 Big Tech at all-time highs
11:20 Everybody is playing it safe, when everybody plays it safe thatās how bubbles are formed.
19:20 Cryptos off to a rough start in 2022. Whatās the outlook for the rest of the year?
19:30 All crypto is down. Fed stuff impacting it?
20:03 Bad projects are going to die.
22:19 Hold onto what you have itās gonna bounce back.
23:50 Cryptos like the smaller tech-stocks?
25:50 Metaverse. Lots of big news recently. Unity + Hyundai. Still bullish on this for 2022?
26:20 Unity and Hyundai partnering to recreate a factory. How does this tie into investing?
28:20 Whatās the point? (Different ways to profit from the Metaverse)
34:25 EV stocks for 2022. Old school vs new school?
35:00 Ford, Electric Hummer, GMC
36:30 Rivian, Tesla, Lucid