Frontrun with John Cook: Recent Episodes

John Cook | Independent Investor

Exploring macro, markets, economics, and crypto.

www.frontruncrypto.com

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EP21 aired on 6/7/24

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EP20 aired 02/20/24

How does the #bitcoin ETF and upcoming halving impact #btc price?

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🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • The fairytail of US dollar hyperinflation

  • Recessionary indicators

  • The underperformance of bull & bear technical indicators

  • SEC crypto misdirection

  • $PEPE meme coin mania

  • Layer 2 Alpha on arbitrum

  • Fair token launch

  • Housing inventory and demand

📚 Supporting content:

Markets:

  • The de-dollarization fairy tail

  • LPL Weekly performance and recessionary indicators

  • Index of economic indicators

  • No respect recovery - underperformance of technical indicators

  • US Government default

Crypto:

  • SEC Gensler hearing by US Financial Services Committee

  • Fair launch tokens with Camelot

  • $PEPE coin liquidity risk

  • Coinbase FIAT to L2 direct onramp

  • Minting on mint.fun

  • Sentiment under collateralized $ETH lending

  • Ethereum stacking unlocks

Housing:

  • Housing inventory

  • Housing interesting rates

  • Months of housing inventory

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Cover art generated by DALL-E: “An abstract oil painting of government officials acting as puppets controlled by billionaires and wallstreet elites”

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🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • Coinbase launching its BASE platform on Optimism

  • Optimism tokenomics

  • GMX legos

  • Binance closes in Australia

  • Code is not law with GEL and dydx

📚 Supporting content:

  • Coinbase launches BASE #Ethereum layer2

  • Coinbase changing BASE sequencer revenue

  • Optimism profitability

  • GMX legos

  • Binance closes Australia derivatives trading platform

  • Code is not law

  • GEL token

  • dydx

  • Camelot launchpad ICO

  • Federal Reserve balance sheet latest reading

  • Federal Reserve balance sheet over time

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Cover art generated by DALL-E: “A futuristic drawing of a crypto bank hosting a meet-up in the metaverse to announce the launch of its own blockchain”

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🕵️ Crypto assets have been on a rip in 2023. Bitcoin is up 37% YTD, Ethereum is up 35%, and Solana is up 80%. Alt-coins like OP, LDO, MANA, and more have all experienced price appreciation greater than 100% in the 1st 30 days of 2023. Why? Is this time different? Are the technical indicators, charts, and averages right?

🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Lido, and Optimism's latest bull run

  • Is it a byproduct of strong fundamentals and new user adoption?

  • The invisible hand of the Federal Reserve?

  • Just another dead cat bounce?

  • What are the technical analysis and charts telling us? Does it even matter?

📚 Supporting content:

  • What’s causing crypto prices to go up?

  • The hardest game: predicting a recession

  • S&P500 2023 Forecast: Wallstreet says “not sure”

  • No winners in 2022

  • A case for $1,200 Ethereum

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Cover art generated by DALL-E: “An expressive oil painting of a social media influencer using charts and data to convince his followers to buy the next ponzi coin.”

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🕵️ We review claims of Grayscale misconduct, conflicts of interest within its investment committee, failure to act in good faith to its stockholders, and claims of malfeasance against the backdrop of the 2023 DCG meltdown.

🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • A speed run of DCG's Genesis meltdown with Gemini and its relationship to Grayscale

  • Two separate legal proceedings against Grayscale's #bitcoin and #ethereum trust

  • Grayscale misconduct & conflicts of interest within Digital Currency Group

  • Allegations of failure to act in the best interest of Grayscale's trust stockholders

  • Claims that Grayscale's ETF campaign is

  • An exploitative and wasteful campaign destined to drag out in the courts for years

  • An elaborate marketing expense to lure retail investors into the trust with no way out

📚 Supporting content:

  • Grayscale misconduct & conflicts of interest within Digital Currency Group

  • Analyzing the complex relationship of Gemini and DCG

  • Is now the time to buy Grayscale’s bitcoin trust?

  • Was Grayscale’s bitcoin premium a leveraged ponzi?

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🤔 We explore the relationship between Gemini Exchange, its "Earn" program, Genesis Lending, and the role of Grayscale's Bitcoin & Ethereum trusts in what appears to be a perpetual leveraged merry-go-round.

Note to listeners: In the intro, I stated “it’s the 3rd week of January 2022”, which was a mistake. It’s 2023! oh, how time flies.

🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • The complex relationship between Gemini Exchange, Genesis Trading, and Gemini’s Earn program

  • Allegations of conflicts of interest between Genesis and Grayscale

  • Questionable lending practices of Genesis

📚 Supporting content:

  • Untangling Digital Currency Group

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Frontrun predicts the future of money and technology

Article cover generated by DALL-E: “A roman art drawing of Leonardo da Vinci convincing Claude Monet to lower the collateralization requirements of his bitcoin loan in exchange for a higher interest rate”

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🔻Top 3 topics of the week for 1/7/23 MakerDAO partners with BlockTower and Centrifuge to facilitate real-world asset investments | Optimism’s OP token upcoming unlocks and valuation | The GMI token didn’t make it - RIP!

🚀 In this podcast we review:

  • Real-world asset investments with MakerDAO’s leap into commercial real estate

  • Optimism OP token valuation & upcoming unlock

  • A post-mortem on the GMI token: it didn’t make it

📚 Supporting content:

  • Top 3: MakerDAO becomes a landlord | Optimism token valuation | $GMI didn't make it

  • Real-world asset on-chain tokenization & risks

  • The bear case on Lido’s LDO token🔥

  • The bull case for Grayscale’s bitcoin trust in 2023

  • The hardest game: predicting a recession

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Frontrun predicts the future of money and technology.

Article cover generated by DALL-E: “An abstract oil painting of Norman Rockwell and Michelangelo voting on Maker's next governance proposal”

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🔻Is Ethereum’s largest liquid staking derivative Lido in trouble? Lido recently released its financial statements for the calendar year 2022, and it’s not positive. The DAO lost $100 million, its treasury dropped 70%, Lido investors and early employees have completed their vesting schedule, and the entire LDO token was pre-mined and pre-sold!

🚀 In this podcast we:

  • Make the bear case for Lido in 2023

  • Discuss Lido’s 2022 financial results

  • Define the failed tokenomics of the LDO token

  • Review Lido’s pre-sold token schedule

  • Outline the Lido investors who pump then dumped LDO

📚 Supporting content:

  • The bear case for Lido

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Article cover generated by DALL-E: “An oil painting of Pablo Picasso trying to convince Leonardo da Vinci to invest in a worthless crypto coin”

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đź”»Are crypto VC funds really the smartest people in the room? How is it possible that the biggest and smartest brains in the crypto vc ecosystem posted the worst returns in 2022? All actively managed funds performed worse than bitcoin and Ethereum, already down ~60% ytd!

🚀 In this podcast we:

  • Outline how actively managed funds in the traditional equities space are unable to outperform their benchmark piers

  • Draw parallels to actively managed crypto funds making the same mistakes as their traditional finance counterparts

  • Analyze the worst-performing crypto assets in 2022

  • Discuss the latest domino to fall in Binance’s solvency

  • Review why Paxful banned ethereum because they love freedom?

📚 Supporting content:

  • No winners in 2022

  • Frontrun’s crypto thesis

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Article cover generated by DALL-E: “An Andy Warhol style painting of investors explaining why they've failed to outperform the stock market”

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đź”»Was SBF the smartest guy in the room? Was he playing 4d chess while everyone played checkers? Or was he just the fall guy on the backdrop of systemic fraud that permeates throughout the centralized crypto exchange ecosystem?

SBF went on an “interview roadshow” over the month of December 2022, but the one interview that mattered: his testimony in front of the US Financial Services Committee, never had its moment in the spotlight. Until now.

🚀 In this podcast we:

  • Recap the charges against SBF by the US SEC, CFTC, and Attorney General’s office of SDNY

  • Read and analyze the entire leaked transcript SBF was supposed to read at his congressional hearing

and attempt to answer…

  • Was SBF the fall guy?

  • How many other degenerates like SBF and FTX are hiding in the crypto space?

  • Will anyone else be held accountable?

📚 Supporting content:

  1. Leaked testimony

  2. US DOJ arrest announcement

  3. CFTC charges

  4. SEC charges

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Cover art generated by DALL-E: “An abstract painting of a tech bro being arrested by federal police for wire fraud”

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🚀 Join us for a crypto nightcap as we review the highlights of the day across the crypto and finance ecosystem for Monday, 12/12/22

⚠️ Topics - 70% of NFTs are hosted on web2 rails, BTC miner bankruptcies continue, SBF is arrested in the Bahamas!

📹 Also available on youtube

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🚀 Join us for a crypto nightcap as we review the highlights of the day across the crypto and finance ecosystem for Saturday, 12/10/22.

⚠️ Topics - S&P 500 2023 Forecasts, Constitution DAO 2.0, Bitcoin Bottom, Bitcoin capital reset, Ark Bitcoin report November 22 , Binance trading fees, Coinbase revenue, Vitali, Apple’s crypto tax.

📹 Also available on youtube

Cover art generated by DALL-E: “An Andy Warhol style painting of crypto enthusiasts reading a bitcoin book before bed”

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🔻How did hedge funds, brokers, and exchanges like 3AC, Genesis, and BlockFi trade Grayscale’s bitcoin trust? BlockFi had $1.7 billion of exposure to GBTC. Genesis had $5 billion of exposure. Based on the best available information at the time of this writing, it is my conclusion is that BlockFi, Alameda, FTX, Grayscale, Genesis, DCG, Gemini, and 3AC all operated in a close loop group of eight crypto firms colluding to synthetically pump Grayscale’s bitcoin premium using leveraged positions funded by retail depositors.

🚀 In this podcast we answer the following questions:

  • What is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust?

  • What does it mean to trade a discount or premium?

  • What is a NAV?

  • How were Grayscale’s GBTC shares were used in under-collateralized leveraged positions?

📚 Read the full analysis here:

  • Part 1: Was Grayscale’s bitcoin premium a leveraged ponzi?

  • Part 2: Everyone has our sh*t, and they’re watching us fight over it.

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Article cover generated by DALL-E: “A van gogh style painting of hedge fund analysts trading imaginary money”

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🚀 Join us for a crypto nightcap as we review the highlights of the day across the crypto and finance ecosystem for Wednesday, 12/7/22.

⚠️ Topics - S&P 500 2023 Forecasts, Constitution DAO 2.0, Bitcoin Bottom, Bitcoin capital reset, Ark Bitcoin report November 22 , Binance trading fees, Coinbase revenue, Vitali, Apple’s crypto tax.

📹 Also available on youtube

Cover art generated by DALL-E: “An Andy Warhol style painting of crypto enthusiasts reading a bitcoin book before bed”

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🚀 Join us for a crypto nightcap as we review the highlights of the day across the crypto and finance ecosystem for Tuesday, 12/6/22.

⚠️ Topics - FTX ventures, Gemini, M11 Finance/Ortho Capital, Exchange profitability - SBF response & autism capital.

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🔻Are we in a recession? Answering this question reminds me of a childhood game Whac-a-mole. It’s an arcade game where players use a mallet to hit toy moles, which appear randomly, before returning back into their hole. Watching investment banks and government regulators create complex charts and research papers in an attempt to answer the question “are we in a recession?” is a disjointed, inconsistent, and perhaps intentional attempt to keep the masses confused and disinterested.

🚀 In this podcast we break down the basics of a recession by answering:

  • What is a recession?

  • Are we in one right now? Will we be in one next month, next year?

  • Why are there so many different ways to measure a recession?

We also review data from Goldman Sachs, RBC Wealth Management, the Conference Board, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

📚 Read the full analysis here:

  • Part 1: The hardest game - predicting a recession

  • Part 2: Everyone has our sh*t, and they’re watching us fight over it.

Article cover generated by DALL-E: “An expressive oil painting of economists huddled around a chalkboard predicting the next recession”

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đź”»FTX literally created money from thin air. FTT is a pre-mined crypto token sold to early investors, pumped to retail bag holders, and used as collateral in exchange for US stablecoins. The downfall of the FTT token is that it lacks economic value. Zero revenue earned by FTX is paid to token holders.

🚀 In this podcast we cover the rise of FTX via the FTT token economics, the final capitulation, and explore why:

  • crypto publications like The Block aren’t able to report the truth

  • the largest crypto publication in the world, CoinDesk, is beholden to the same forces responsible for the impending implosion of GBTC and Genesis

  • the largest and most prestigious venture fund in the world won’t admit wrongdoing in its involvement with FTX

  • the fintech and crypto desk of the Financial Times is unable or willing to call out the ponzi tokenomics of FTT and the FTX token

…and how this prevents mainstream media outlets like: CNN, Forbes, MSNBC, NYTimes, WSJ, Fox, and more from reporting the truth

📚 Read the full analysis here:

  • Part 1: How to build a ponzi empire with fake money

  • Part 2: Mainstream mediocrity

Article cover generated by DALL-E: “An oil pastel painting of corrupt mainstream media reporters taking bribes from billionaires”

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🔻 Sam Bankman-Fried and his FTX empire: the advocate for regulatory oversight to safeguard the plebs, is now being accused of using depositor funds in “bespoke non-reported transactions between financial counterparties”. Did he fool you? Don’t feel bad. He also fooled Blackrock, Forbes, Bloomberg, Sequoia Capital, The City of Miami, Tom Brady, Giselle Bundchen, The Ontario Pension Fund and many more.

🚀 Greed begets greed, and in this podcast, we outline how SBF lost $16 billion dollars in depositor funds and destroyed $8 billion in wealth via the collapse of the FTT token.

📚 Read the full analysis by clicking here

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.frontruncrypto.com

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🔻 The data is clear, start-ups will not make you rich. This is especially true for “founding team members” (pre-seed) and “early employees” (seed round, series A). In this multi-episode podcast, we cover founder risks - starting with dilution.

🚀 What’s more admirable than throwing caution to the wind in the pursuit of the entrepreneurial dream? How many of us envision a future where we are our own boss and the master of our destiny? The grit and determination to start your own company and “be your own CEO” should stem from an innate desire to make the world a better place with the creation of your product or service. In the absence of this passion, most people view the nobility of entrepreneurship as a byproduct of wanting to be rich.

📚 Read the full analysis by clicking here

Cover art by DALL-E AI: “a painting of start-up founders swimming in money”

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đź”» The persistent state of economic destruction catastrophized by six recessions over the past 40 years is a byproduct of a trust-based financial institution focused on preserving its legacy and lining its pockets at the expense of taxpayers.

🚀 If trust-based systems have failed, trustless systems are mankind’s beacon of hope. Trustless systems are technologies, policies, and solutions absent of human intervention. Code is law and agreements are automatically enforced via smart contracts. Data is transparent, visible, and final.

📚 Read the full analysis by clicking here

Level up your crypto knowledge & master the future of decentralized finance.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.frontruncrypto.com