The Morning Notes: Recent Episodes
Jackson Square Capital, LLC
A daily podcast that focuses on global news and events that influence capital markets. Morning Notes identifies the key catalysts that impact markets and affect the daily responsibilities of people who run businesses.
Listen to our Managing Partner and CFA, Andrew Graham, answer questions we've been receiving from clients at Jackson Square Capital. We're answering questions regarding bond yields, high unrealized gains, and AI.
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Listen to Jackson Square Capital's CFA and Managing Partner, Andrew Graham, answer questions relating to his market outlook for the year.
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Monetary easing and disinflation remain as the dominant bullish equity themes.
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We expect earnings to be the main driver behind this week's price action.
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Many earnings driver outperformers and downside reports were released yesterday and today.
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The logic behind pricing in a March rate cut originally came from Fed officials' repeated emphasis on the annualized 6-month run rate core PCE. That measure should fall below the Fed’s 2% inflation target prior to the March meeting.
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Real yields will likely decline from current levels but remain at highly restrictive levels unless something breaks.
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Ten-year Treasury yields look like they’ll top out near 4.25% as markets price for Fed policy normalization to begin this summer. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
January is a volatile month for inflation data as many labor and supplier contracts are rest at the new year.
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March rate cut expectations are repricing to lower levels which is putting upside pressure on short-dated bond yields.
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Pricing of a March rate cut will likely be challenged in coming weeks.
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The SPX and RTY could signal an imminent cyclical recovery.
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Consensus is looking for December headline CPI to come in at +0.2% MoM, up from +0.1% in November as the recent decline in energy prices is now behind us.
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Consensus is looking for a headline reading of +0.2% MoM or +3.2% YoY, but what are the results in other prints?
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A pullback in rate cut expectations remains the single biggest risk to equity markets.
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The SPX is currently trading below levels that signal a short-term reversal.
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Tomorrow’s Jobs Report has the potential to be an important near-term macro catalyst for markets given the recent back up in yields.
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The three-day pullback in the S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RTY) comes as both benchmarks approach broad range resistance.
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The SPX is approaching technical range resistance where we expect the index to decelerate and possible bearishly reverse.
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Tomorrow brings November core PCE and final Michigan consumer confidence with inflation expectations.
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The cyclically-sensitive Russell 2000 (RTY) is trading to the upper end of range resistance near 2015.
November core PCE inflation due Friday is the only catalyst with enough weight to shift the current narrative. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Major US equity indices are overbought and due for a period of consolidation.
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Yesterday's updated Summary of Economic Projections clearly supports market expectations for a soft landing, especially when compared to the SEP from last December.
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The updated dot plot will likely attract the most attention when the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections today.
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The bond market is telling us that hawkish rhetoric should be ignored given the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
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The SPX is technically overbought, positioning is no longer a tailwind and bullish sentiment is now elevated.
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Higher bond yields by themselves shouldn't create a near-term headwind for equity markets, but higher bond volatility would.
Labor market dad should become a bigger input for Fed policy expectations going forward.
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A dominant recession narrative is unlikely to have equity-friendly implications.
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Market based probability for rate cuts to begin in March is inconsistent with the prevailing soft-landing narrative.
The rotation out of mega-cap Tech and into YTD underperformers will likely continue for the next couple of weeks. In index terms, this would favor the Russell 2000 (RTY) over the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Momentum reversal at year-end, known as the January Effect, is one of the most consistent patterns in Equity Markets.
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Without preemptive rate cuts, the Fed's commitment to higher for longer rates will eventually lead to large scale layoffs.
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Yesterday’s dovish Fed comments, small uptick in consumer confidence and better-than-feared early holiday shopping trends has started early rotation into cyclical equity groups like banks, REITS, autos and housing.
The prevailing soft landing narrative includes expectations for 100bp of rate cuts in ’24. The presumed rate cuts have been driving recent dollar weakness and gold strength.
A US soft-landing in 2024 is the prevailing narrative with risksskewed toward a potential recession.
Inside Markets will not be published for the rest of the week. The next edition will be published Monday, November 27.
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This afternoon’s earnings report from NVDA will have near-term implications for semis, mega-cap Tech and the broader market.
The SPX advanced +2.2% last week, while the NDX gained 2.0% and Russell 2000 (RTY) +5.4%. The cooler inflation print increased conviction that the Fed is done with its hiking cycle.
Equity markets are in the middle of a strong seasonal period when upside often results in performance chasing into year-end.
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The 'bad news is good' phase likely remains intact as disappointing data drives bond yields lower and should drive stock prices higher.
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Yesterday's cooler CPI combined with the October Jobs report give reason to conclude the hiking cycle is now done.
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The 4% YoY core CPI rate remains 2x higher than the Fed’s target. Today’s dip in the core rate likely means that rate hikes are over, but policy could remain restrictive until the 2% target is within range or until something breaks.
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The Fed will likely wait for three consecutive months of lower YOY headline CPI prints before officially calling an end to the hiking cycle.
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We expect 10-year yields to remain above our 4.48% bullish inflection target for the remainder of Q4.
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The market has entered a brief catalyst vacuum ahead of next week's CPI and retail sales reports.
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A confirmed peak in bonds yields should be an equity friendly development.
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Last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +5.9% as a lower-than expected Treasury refunding announcement, dovish Fed and disappointing data triggered a pullback in bond yields.
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Disappointing macro data and a coincident decline in bond yields has driven equity upside this week, but investors will eventually need to consider the growth implications.
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AAPL results this afternoon could also have macro implications given the setup.
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The pullback in bond yields keeps a tenuous relief rally in the conversation, but the move falls short of signaling a short-term trend reversal.
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The -10% correction in the SPX and NDX has resulted in oversold conditions that can provide some fuel for a relief rally.
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Today's rebound in US equities reflects some catalyst anticipation.
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Equity sentiment is nowhere near bearish extremes and shouldn't be considered a bullish contrarian signal.
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We keep our bearish tactical outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) based on the recent breakdown in cyclical indices and concerns that elevated bond market volatility could spill into equity markets.
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Markets are leading indicators and ongoing weakness in the Russell 2000 (RTY) is an early warning of slowing economic activity ahead. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
All major US benchmarks have formed bearish distributions patterns since late July.
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All bond yield tenors are moving to cycle highs withclosing levels key to the near-term outlook. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
The end of a Fed hiking cycle once inflation is vanquished should be positive for risk assets.
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The overshoot in headline CPI came mostly from higher shelter prices, while the Fed’s preferred ‘super core’ rate that excludes housing declined to 3.91% YoY from 4.05% in August.
An end of the hiking cycle doesn’t mean the tightening cycle is over.
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We may be in the early stages of a transition phase, where a decline in bond yields reflects rapidly growth expectations.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) is staging a small relief rally from oversold levels after holding key technical support near 4200.
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Tomorrow’s Jobs Report and next Thursday’s CPI print could materially change the outlook for bond yields and equities.
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The recent backup in yields has been largely disconnected from fundamentals.
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Pandemic-related fiscal spending in the spring of '21 was unnecessary and reckless given that US manufacturing PMI was at an all-time record high.
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US equity markets will struggle to advance as rising bond yields threaten valuation multiples, present a near-term drag on growth and increase the risk of dislocation in funding markets.
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This morning’s release of US core PCE and Eurozone CPI fail to shift an emerging stagflation narrative.
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The only fundamental justification for the recent backup in bond yields seems to come from the extended rally in crude oil and its assumed eventual impact on inflation expectations. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com
Higher realized volatility remains our primary concern.
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Breakdowns in cyclically-sensitive indices are now leading the broader US benchmarks lower.
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Equity volatility has advanced from a mid-September low.
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US consumer strength has been a major reason to doubt near-term recession risk all year, but some cracks are beginning to show.
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Yesterday, the Russell 2000 (RTY) broke support near its 200-day moving average after a bearish distribution pattern developed in late August.
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The intrigue for today's meeting is mostly focused on the updated dot plot.
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We remain tactically bearish as developed markets form distribution patterns amid rising yields and rising crude prices.
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The Fed is widely expected to pause at this week’s meeting. The updated dot plot seems to be the wildcard with a ~30% chance for the median dot to price out another 25bp hike for 2023.
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European equity indices are in the early stages of forming what looks like technical distribution patterns.
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Headline CPI should decline over three consecutive months beginning in January and the Fed will signal an end to its tightening cycle in February or March.
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This morning’s August CPI print did little to shift the inflation narrative in either direction.
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We continue to see 4525 as the near-term ceiling amid ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.
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The soonest we now see the hiking cycle ending is Q1'24.
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A temporary end to the disinflation theme should make this a ‘bad news is good’ phase for equity markets when it comes to data.
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Today's ISM reinforces renewed concerns around sticky inflation into next week's CPI print.
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The bond market is pricing in a ~37% chance of another rate hike this year.
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This week’s data mostly supported the idea that the Fed is done with rate hikes, but it’s not a foregone conclusion by any means.
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Systematic funds should be net-buyers of equities given subtle changes in technical conditions.
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The probability of a soft landing in the current environment seems low given that the current tightening cycle has been the most severe in terms of magnitude.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
We expect labor market data and 'super core' PCE will be the most important inputs for future Fed policy.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Commodities pulling back from key resistance levels and failing to break higher likely signals a weakening global economy.
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The upside breakout in bond yields creates a headwind for the S&P 500.
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We discussed the historical context to Fitch's warning about potential debt rating downgrades for large US banks.
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Implied equity volatility as measured by the VIX Index remains subdued at 15.80. The threat of waterfall decline in equity markets seems low as long as the VIX remains below 22.
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The recent repricing in Treasury yields follows last week's increased auction sizes and lackluster demand possibly linked to the US sovereign credit rating downgrade.
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Cooler than expected June CPI and PPI from July made disinflation a major part of the consensus narrative.
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We continue to expect a brief period of weakness for the SPX based on ongoing policy ambiguity during a relative catalyst vacuum. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
The Fed will likely focus on the MoM CPI numbers knowing that base effects skew the YoY numbers higher for the time being. Consensus is looking for both headline and core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM in July.
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The recent widening in credit spreads should be closely followed in the days ahead. Recession risk has been priced out of equity markets, but rising recession risk usually starts in credit markets.
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Last week's pullback in equity markets was driven by a volatile week in the bond market.
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A combination of factors have us currently bullish on bond duration.
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Steep curve inversion and tepid US growth data from Q4'22-Q1'23 generated consensus for an imminent recession.
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The credit rating downgrade is more about sentiment than any kind of direct impact.
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Recent tightening with yesterday's SLOOS report suggests the economy should slow into year end.
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Ten year yields still look like they peaked last October at 4.2%. A new high in the 10-year yield would take equities lower, where a move to ~3.5% would likely drive the S&P 500 (SPX) to a new all-time high.
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Aggregate US data continues to support the soft landing narrative with today's ECI and PCE reports helping to ease inflation concerns.
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The Q2 earnings season is coming in better than expected with the SPX beat rate recently lifting above the 5-year average.
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The bar is higher this quarter for mega-cap Tech earnings, but results have been largely inline with expectations thus far.
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Markets are priced for a 25bp rate hike and a message that signals a pause in the hiking cycle.
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The combination of marginally hawkish Fed and underwhelming mega-cap Tech results would be catalysts for a pullback in the SPX.
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Yesterday’s -2.3% sell-off in the Nasdaq 100 was a 2 standard deviation move triggered by disappointing earnings and rising bond yields amid very crowded positioning.
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There are no signs yet of bearish momentum divergence for the S&P 500, so a period of consolidation is or initial expectation.
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Expected July rate hikes are now widely thought to be the last.
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The macro narrative continues to shift toward a soft landing after yesterday’s Empire Fed manufacturing index came in better than expected with big declines in prices paid and prices received.
Reaching overbought status increases the likelihood for a momentum unwind. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Focus has already shifted from disinflation to Q2 earnings season.
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Central banks may be underestimating the potential pace of global disinflation.
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The below-consensus outcome of 3% should make an almost certain July Fed rate hike the last of the cycle.
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We present our probabilities for tomorrow's June CPI report, which is an important catalyst for markets.
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Friday's softer non-farm payroll number was the first miss after 14 consecutive months of hotter-than-expected readings.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) decelerates on its approach to technical resistance in the 4515-4535 range as the rally shows signs of exhaustion.
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Today’s advance in 2-year yields drives the risk free rate beyond the earnings yield on the SPX.
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Today’s weaker factory orders number provides the first downtick in the US Economic Surprise Index (ESI) in nearly two weeks.
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The pain trade remains skewed to the upside as the SPX tests cycle highs this morning.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) has been able to keep its upward momentum despite rising bond yields.
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US economic data continues to surprise to the upside resulting in cyclical equity outperformance and higher bond yields.
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History suggests its wise to remain skeptical about the prospects for an economic soft landing.
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The SPX remains technically overbought despite a -2.2% pullback over the last six sessions.
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Equities are starting the week mostly lower into month-end and quarter-end rebalancing.
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Today’s disappointing manufacturing PMIs are a step in the wrong direction with cyclical groups under pressure.
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A flash manufacturing PMI number of 51 seems more likely than 48, and anything north of 50 will take the SPX higher by validating the recent move in homebuilders, semis and transports.
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Markets are waiting for a traditional recession or soft landing to follow the Fed’s tightening cycle, but there may be a third template that fits better.
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The SPX needs cyclical sector leadership to sustain higher levels from here.
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The S&P 500 has gained +5.7% since the index broke technical resistance at ~4200. Thin leadership and narrow breadth on the approach to 4200 were reasons to remain tactically bearish.
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Yesterday’s Fed meeting is being characterized as a ‘hawkish skip’ after the revised dot plot implied two more rate hikes rather than one.
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Yesterday's CPI print delivered a favorable outcome for risk assets.
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Widening market breadth beginning in late May removes a key technical concern for the sustainability for the rally.
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Consensus is looking for YoY headline CPI to drop to +4.1% from 4.9% last month and the core rate falling to +5.3% from 5.5%.
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Yesterday’s higher-than-expected jobless claims pushed bond yields lower, which led to some reversion in recent cyclical and small cap outperformance
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The likelihood of a US recession took a step forward after today’s jobless claims number rose above +260,000.
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The probability of a June Fed rate hike increases to 40% after the RBA and BOC surprised markets with hikes.
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Broad sector participation returns this morning with the Russell 2000 (RTY) outperforming on state-run media reports about expected China stimulus in the back half of the year.
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Today's ISM services report fits the disinflation narrative that reemerged in mid-April.
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Yesterday's rally was supported by positive flows that started in the futures market during trading hours. This may have contributed to broadening leadership and participation from underperforming sectors such as REITS.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading above 4200 with cyclical leadership and broad sector participation. The improvement in market internals is encouraging, but closing levels are more important.
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Fed officials continue to use hawkish rhetoric with rising expectations for another rate hike in June.
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Assuming the debt ceiling agreement is passed this week simply means that market attention will shift back to the challenging macro backdrop. US inflation data remains elevated, global manufacturing PMIs are in contraction and China activity data is rolling over.
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Gains in AI-related stocks have started a performance chasing rally that threatens the upper end of the S&P 500’s technical resistance band near 4200.
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US equities are mixed with Tech as the upside standout after strong overnight results from NVDA.
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Yesterday's risk-off trade occurred 10 days before the estimated debt ceiling x-date of June 1.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) has extended to the upper end of technical pattern resistance near 4200 with thin leadership in mega cap Tech and Comm Services.
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Ongoing optimism around US debt ceiling negotiations remain the primary driver behind the recent backup in bond yields and relative strength in the dollar.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Coming out of yesterday's meeting both Biden and McConnell vowed that the US will not default.
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We continue to think that a full Fed pivot is required in order to drive the S&P 500 (SPX) through ~4200. Unfortunately, getting the Fed to pivot likely requires the onset of recession or major crisis in financial markets.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Friday's stronger than expected payroll gain, lower unemployment rate, and higher wages are taking bond yields higher in the near-term.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
The debt ceiling issue is different than budget debates that sometimes cause a government shutdown.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
This morning, the 5/10-year yield curve flipped into positive territory for the first time in 9 months. A positively sloped 5/10 yield curve is our early signal of an imminent Fed pivot and catalyst to add equity exposure. Unfortunately, intraday levels don’t count and the curve now needs to sustain and confirm a positive slope by moving above +9bp. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
History shows that monetary tightening works with a lag and sustained equity rallies require the Fed to first end its hiking cycle.
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The probability for a technical US debt default remains below 10%, but the likelihood for a credit rating downgrade may be fairly high.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Bullish developments begin to show with improvements in Q1 earnings.
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The ongoing preference for mega-cap stocks is a defensive dynamic that often occurs late in a cycle. Apple and Microsoft are no longer stocks in an index, they're a destination.
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Our 10-year yield objective of 3.2% looks achievable in the near term as the market awaits an updated debt ceiling ex-date from the Treasury.
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The S&P 500 is in technical short-term overbought territory and looks fundamentally overbought relative to current terminal rate expectations.
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Takeaways from the earliest Q1 reports reveal strength in high-income consumer spending and travel demand, but softening demand among middle-income consumers.
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Signs of easing banking sector stress have resulted in a return of the soft-landing narrative, higher bond yields and more hawkish Fed rhetoric.
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A crowded bearish outlook means the near-term pain trade is still skewed to the upside.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
The recent backup in bond yields looks like normal consolidation in a developing bullish trend.
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Strong technical resistance in the mid-4100s continues to cap the S&P 500 until there's a change in macro-fundamentals.Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Current economic conditions suggest that any near-term recession would be relatively mild.
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Fed officials continue to endorse a hike and hold policy into year-end, while markets remain priced for nearly 50bp of rate cuts.
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It’s a relatively quiet session as market participants wait for directional clues in tomorrow’s CPI report and Fed meeting minutes. Bond markets remain priced for a 25bp May rate hike and ~60bp of rate cuts through January ’24.
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Wednesday's CPI print should provide more clarity for the Fed's expected near-term policy path.
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An expected collapse in bank credit creation should accelerate the disinflationary cycle.
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Bond prices and equity prices have been positively correlated for the last 14 months. Over the long run, these two asset classes have a negative correlation with higher bond prices and lower yields reflecting increased risk of slowdown in economic growth.
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The S&P 500 (SPX) has moved into a strong technical resistance range between 4050-4200 with a challenging fundamental backdrop. Breaking above ~4200 likely requires a change in macro fundamentals, specifically a Fed pivot.
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Last week’s AAII survey continues to signal elevated bearish sentiment, while internal client surveys at sell-side firms reach bearish extremes. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Technical signs of a peak in nominal yields occurred two weeks prior to Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank headlines.
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Calls for increased bank regulations fit the disinflation and recession narrative, driving the rotation into growth equity sectors.
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The S&P 500 tries to break above the 3950-4000 resistance as bank contagion appears temporarily contained and implied volatility fades.
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FCNA’s acquisition of SIVB assets and deposits has helped near-term risk sentiment, but markets are still looking for additional policy measures from the Fed, FDIC and Treasury.
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Recent equity market resilience has been driven by lower bond yields and rotation into growth sectors.
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Reduced bank credit creation will slow the economy and slow inflation with the lagged effects of official government statistics causing the Fed to remain behind the curve.
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The S&P 500 remains relatively resilient as investors look through near-term economic pain on expectations for an eventual Fed pivot.
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In addition to the Fed decision, markets will pay close attention to Powell’s press conference for: 1) near-term direction on efforts to contain financial contagion; 2) associated impact on financial conditions from expected tightening of bank lending standards.
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The debate over whether the Fed hikes by 25bp or decides to pause at tomorrow’s meeting seems less important when you consider that an estimated $440B of its BTFP facility has already been utilized.
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A de facto end of the tightening cycle has driven bond yields and kicked off equity rotation into growth sectors and Tech in particular.
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Rotation into growth from value sectors began late last week after 10-year real yields reversed from strong technical resistance at +170bp.
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Bond market volatility has spilled into equity markets and other cross markets amid low liquidity conditions.
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The Fed backstop on deposits at SIVB and SBNY reduces the likelihood of more regional bank failures, but the pressure on bank's underlying business model remains acute.
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The Fed's decision to provide liquidity has markets speculating the central bank may elect to leave rates unchanged when it meets again next week.
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The recency of the financial crisis and the systemic issues that followed generates questions about it reoccurring today.
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A macro backdrop that includes a potential recession has the Fed issuing stricter stress test rules, which means higher loan loss provisions, fewer loans, and lower earnings.
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Macro fundamentals remain challenging for equity markets after a year-long yield curve inversion and policy rate that’s 2x higher than neutral.
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Longer-dated bond yields have limited room to lift from current levels given hawkish rate expectations and the potential for a more benign February Jobs Report this Friday.
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Market internals over the last three sessions suggest the peak inflation narrative has returned ahead of Friday's Jobs Report and next Tuesday's CPI print.
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The S&P 500 staged a rebound from short-term oversold levels just above its 200-day moving average.
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If higher rates are going to create a problem for the economy and equity markets, it would first show up in credit markets.
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Ten year real yields are now at the upper-end of technical resistance as the SPX reaches short-term over sold levels.
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U.S. equities remain relatively resilient despite higher short-dated bond yields.
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A higher median dot coming out of the March 22 Fed meeting is the most apparent near-term risk for equity markets, and technical indicators continue to offer little near term direction.
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The bond market has been pricing in increased inflation volatility since the January Jobs Report, while equities remained relatively resilient.
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Until last week, equity markets had been relatively resilient in the face of higher terminal rate expectations following the strong January Jobs Report.
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The idea of a cyclical recovery without monetary accommodation seems wildly optimistic.
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Last week's break in the S&P 500 below 4100 was the first technical sign of weakness.
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Oil prices rise when OPEC is the wing producer, and we'll see higher prices - maybe much higher prices in the future.
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The no-landing narrative that emerged after the strong January payroll number drives a cyclical recovery theme in equity markets.
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As we noted yesterday, we’re discounting the signal quality of the January payroll data given the outsized role of seasonal adjustment factors.
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We are discounting signal quality of the January payroll data as well as the supposed message in today's CPI report. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Equity markets take initial direction from headline CPI with consensus looking for a decline to 6.2% YoY in January from 6.5% in December. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com.
US equities are mixed with the S&P 500 on track for its worst week of 2023.
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Catalysts ahead include Michigan inflation expectations and two Fed speakers tomorrow, but markets remain focused on Tuesday's CPI report.
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Terminal rate expectations drift higher as markets digest implications of last Friday's strong Jobs Report and tight labor market conditions.
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Fed rate expectations have repriced higher since Friday's Jobs report, but the drawdown in equities thus far has been short and shallow.
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Today's pod discusses catalysts from January and the potential impacts on the S&P 500.
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Disappointing overnight earnings and an unfavorable Jobs Report have US equities lower. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Mega-cap earnings tomorrow’s Jobs Report are expected to have a material impact on markets.
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Monetary factors are at the center of the current market narrative, with recent equity upside yesterday driven by weaker-than-expected Employment Cost Index and positioning ahead of today’s Fed meeting.
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Rate hikes in the U.S. and around the world meet expectations but still can have their own consequences.
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Soft Landing? Expect challenges in the days ahead to the emerging soft landing scenario, which is often cited as the driver of YTD gains in the SPX.
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Today's episode gives a technical update on the S&P 500 and points to upcoming macroeconomic data points.
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This week's reversal occurs as the SPX was unable to hold key momentum levels and the index moved into downward sloping technical resistance near 4000.
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We enter a new phase as the disinflation narrative is now consensus and a still-hawkish Fed drives concerns for a hard landing.
Today's podcast discusses cross markets and the 5/10 yield curve.
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Today's podcast discusses hedge fund positioning and S&P 500 pricing.
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Today's podcast gives different scenarios for the upcoming CPI print. We also discuss upcoming earnings and its potential impact on SPX.
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Today's podcast presents a technical outlook for the SPX and outlines this week's catalysts.
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Today's podcast discusses the increased risk of a policy mistake and its impact on the S&P 500.
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Today's episode focuses on the Fed policy regarding jobs markets, macro economic factors, and equity markets.
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Today we discuss US manufacturing, labor, and inflation data and its effects on the S&P 500.
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Today we talk European inflation and keep up with China's Covid wave. We also list our expectations with upcoming market catalysts as well as our strategy with 10-year real yields.
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Listen to the market catalysts of today and the future. Inside Markets is your source for market news and top-down perspective. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital? Join the Morning Notes community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com
Listen to the market catalysts of today and the future. Inside Markets is your source for market news and top-down perspective. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital? Join the Morning Notes community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Listen to the market catalysts of today and the future. Inside Markets is your source for market news and top-down perspective. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital? Join the Morning Notes community by sending an email to max@jacksonsquarecap.com.
Listen to the market catalysts of today and the future. Inside Markets is your source for market news and top-down perspective. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital? Join the Morning Notes community by sending an email tojack@jacksonsquarecap.com.