FT Martin Wolf: Recent Episodes
Martin Wolf
Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator of the Financial Times, reads his weekly column
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The fault lines in the currency union stand revealed. The promise was that the eurozone would deliver its members from currency crises. But, as I, and others, warned, be careful what you wish for: credit crises would replace currency crises – and these are likely to be even worse.
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Borrowing is no sin, provided we use the funds to ensure that we bequeath a better infrastructure to the future, says Martin Wolf
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Berlin’s emphasis on deflationary adjustment in weaker countries risks turning the eurozone as a whole into a gigantic Germany, dependent on importing demand from the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf
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They came; they saw; they lost. That is the reaction to what emerged on global rebalancing at the summit meeting of the Group of 20 leading countries in Seoul last week. Publicly, surplus countries persist in calling on those in deficit to deflate themselves into economic health. The consequences of this folly are now evident in the eurozone. At the world level, the US will never accept it. But, beneath the radar, something more productive may be emerging.
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The International Monetary Fund does not normally respond to mere journalists. But its staff have explicitly rejected my arguments on the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK. On one point – the need for a fiscal “plan B” – the IMF takes my side in the argument with the government. This is no small victory, not least because its latest report on the UK reads, in other respects, as if dictated to it by the Treasury.
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The sky is falling, scream the hysterics: the Federal Reserve is pouring forth dollars in such quantities that they will soon be worthless. Nothing could be further from the truth. As in Japan, the policy known as “quantitative easing” is far more likely to prove ineffective than lethal. It is a leaky hose, not a monetary Noah’s Flood.
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The debate on “global imbalances” has gone back to the future. The proposal from Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, to target the current account takes us back to the preoccupations of John Maynard Keynes at the Bretton Woods conference of July 1944.
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Martin Wolf admires the courage of the government as it launches its spending review without a Plan B but wonders whether the public will accept the necessary pain
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A large part of the American public has forgotten the gravity of the financial heart attack that hit the US in the autumn of 2008. The Republicans have convinced many voters that the intervention by the Democrats, not the catastrophe George W Bush bequeathed, explains the malaise. Does President Obama deserve blame? No and yes, says Martin Wolf.
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This may be a great policy success or the biggest fiscal blunder since the early 1930s. More likely, it will be in between, says Martin Wolf.
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With the announcement of massive cuts in government spending the UK has launched a remarkable policy experiment. The contrast with the US – which has announced none – should at least be instructive, says Martin Wolf.
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The changes will bring pain. But the upside is also huge. The government should grasp this nettle now, says Martin Wolf
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US policymakers will do whatever is required to avoid deflation. Indeed, the Fed will keep going until the US is satisfactorily reflated. What that effort does to the rest of the world is not its concern, says Martin Wolf
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The post-crisis world economy will not work so long as its most dynamic economy is also its largest capital exporter. Policies that would turn China into a net importer would benefit both its own people and the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf
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Effective policy would see the government increase its deficit and have this rise funded by the Bank of England, says Martin Wolf
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Twenty five years ago, France, West Germany, Japan, the US and the UK met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to push for depreciation of the US dollar. Today America has the same desire. But this time, the focus of attention is not a compliant ally, such as Japan, but the world’s next superpower: China. When such elephants fight, bystanders are likely to be trampled, says Martin Wolf
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Who dares to make such a downbeat assessment of the world’s most dynamic economy before a gathering of influential foreigners in the heart of China itself?
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It would be more sensible to make plans for fiscal retrenchment that are explicitly contingent on how the economy recovers, says Martin Wolf
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The world needs a smaller and safer banking industry. The defect of the new rules is that they will fail to deliver this, says Martin Wolf
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Germany has an enormous political and economic interest in making the eurozone work, however unpopular that view may be, says Martin Wolf
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The market is screaming its lack of concern about UK fiscal credibility. Government debt is long-term and denominated in the domestic currency. We are terrified of a confidence bogey who is asleep, says Martin Wolf
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The idea that the policies adopted in the last few months of the Bush administration and the first months of this one were far better than nothing is weirdly controversial in the US, says Martin Wolf
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One big drawback is that it would again put allocation of funds under the control of the state, says Martin Wolf
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The austerity debate: To tighten or not to tighten – that is the question. It is one to which policymakers have started changing their answers. Are they right to do so?, asks Martin Wolf
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Leaders of the world’s principal economies – both advanced and emerging – will need to reform co-operatively and deeply if the world economy is not to suffer further earthquakes, says Martin Wolf
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Ruinous trust in land speculation as the route to wealth has led to expensive houses and inefficient taxes but, far worse, it ended up destabilising the entire global economy, says Martin Wolf
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Rapid cuts in fiscal support make sense if, and only if, monetary policy can be effective on its own and expanding the interest-elastic parts of the economy is the best way to climb out of the hole, says Martin Wolf
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Was the summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Canada over the weekend a step forward towards co-operation or a step backwards towards disagreement? The answer seems to be both.
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The balance of cuts that the chancellor has set out is unlikely to prove politically sustainable, let alone sensible, says Martin Wolf
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Perhaps only a young government – in age and in time in office – would gamble so much on such a fast adjustment, says Martin Wolf
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At present, we have ‘too little money chasing too many goods’. In this environment, monetary policy must be aggressive. When the economy recovers, the monetary effects should be withdrawn, says Martin Wolf
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Yet again, we hear the cry of the old economic religion: repent before it is too late; the wages of fiscal sin is death. But is it already time to retrench? I doubt it, says Martin Wolf
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Congratulations, Mr Osborne, on "hitting the ground running". You have made good decisions already. So far, so good. But here is my question: what is your "plan B"? , asks Martin Wolf
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A consensus is forming that policymakers in countries with large fiscal deficits should tighten fiscal policy sharply – but what makes them sure that business and consumers will spend in response to austerity? asks Martin Wolf
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Flows of finance from export-driven ant nests to advanced grasshopper colonies end in tears. Flows of finance from old ant nests to young ones have not worked out either, says Martin Wolf
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‘If the forecasts are true,’ asked Bobby, ‘why do all these people talk about ‘instability’? Martin Wolf responds
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The OECD seems to take the view that they only big risk is a loss of fiscal and monetary ‘credibility’. But Martin Wolf argues a lengthy floundering economy is a more serious risk
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Today’s global economy is more complex than Aesop could have imagined. What would be the moral of a contemporary version of his famous story where the “ants” are Germans, Chinese and Japanese, while the “grasshoppers” are American, British, Greek, Irish and Spanish, asks Martin Wolf
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Despite today’s gloom and doom, the eurozone will probably survive. But the view that everything would now be fine had fiscal rules been followed is wrong. The private sector’s irresponsibility was the biggest failing, says Martin Wolf.
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Everybody would like to blame Gordon Brown for the financial crisis. But he was only acting in line with the national consensus on economic policy, says Martin Wolf
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The German inclination is to believe that everything would be fine if deficit countries were placed under greater discipline. This is false. The answer, instead, is to create a system that recognises and responds to reality, says Martin Wolf
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Desperate times - desperate measures, says Martin.
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Martin finds himself in New York for the election - which he says gives him a sense of perspective.
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To make anything close to the present system less unsafe, says Martin, requires radical changes in the rules - tighter supervision is not enough, incentives must change fundamentally.
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People pay too much attention to the direct costs of bailouts says Martin and not enough to the costs which matter - those of the recession itself and the huge jump in public debt.
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Martin Wolf asks what is the right economic medicine for the UK? He argues that rebalancing the economy towards higher investment and higher net exports is a big part of the answer.
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Today's fiscal deficits exceed those of any previous periods in peace time. Martin Wolf talks about the importance timing will play if the balance is to be redressed successfully.
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Is China a currency manipulator? Yes. China has intervened on a gigantic scale to keep its exchange rate down and it is also protectionist.
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Last week’s European Council was not a solution but a fudge. The IMF cannot save Europe
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The party that deserves to win the UK election must craft a narrative that creates opportunity out of disappointment, says Martin Wolf
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The government is offering a delayed return to fiscal stability, with details still to be filled in. Is that good enough? No, says Martin Wolf
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Germany is wrong to reject a role in rebalancing global demand, says Martin Wolf. Beggar-my-neighbour policies to boost exports cannot work for everybody
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Suggestions from Schäuble and Wen would hit their own economies if followed through, says Martin Wolf. But it is not too late for a co-operative
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At a time of crisis, the UK has to choose between a government about which it knows far too much and an opposition about which it knows far too little. Neither side is convincing, says Martin Wolf
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he twin imperatives of sound money and European integration are clashing. Ironically, Germany must become less German if the eurozone is to become more so, says Martin Wolf
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The world’s biggest democracy has changed, says Martin Wolf. But economic pragmatism alone will not be enough: reforms are still needed
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Both sides of the debate can be right, says Martin Wolf. The public finances must be credible, but further unnecessary economic damage needs to be avoided
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Finding an exit route from the extraordinary government deficits could lead to default unless there is a radical rethink, says Martin Wolf
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Today, high-income countries face huge fiscal challenges crisis-hit countries start from grossly unsustainable fiscal positions. But massive fiscal tightening could tip much of the world back into recession, says Martin Wolf
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Martin Wolf says he can see no reason why it would be more difficult to implement the needed tightening under a coalition government
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Greece fills the role of sinner to perfection, but if it and the rest of the peripheral European countries are to avoid meltdown they need a core demand engine within the eurozone, says Martin Wolf
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The policy interventions of late 2008 and 2009 resulted in a far briefer and shallower recession than most imagined a year ago. The big questions for this year are how quickly to withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus and which should be withdrawn first, says Martin Wolf
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Corporate takeovers are in the spotlight again after Kraft’s successful bid for Cadbury. Martin Wolf asks whether it makes sense to run a regime as open as the UK’s
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Obama’s latest proposals for bank reform miss the point, says Martin Wolf. They may or may not be workable, but they do nothing to create a sustainable finance sector
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The problems of Greece are extreme, because it alone of the vulnerable eurozone member countries has both high fiscal deficits and high debt. Some say it should be bailed out, but there are two other possibilities – it toughs it out or just defaults, says Martin Wolf
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The combination of cross-border banking with generous guarantees to creditors is unsustainable. Taxpayers cannot be expected to write open-ended insurance on the foreign activities of their banks, says Martin Wolf
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Japan’s experience indicates that when fast growth begins to slow in a catch-up economy with high corporate savings and comparably high fixed investment, demand may well prove hard to manage, says Martin Wolf
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The countries on the periphery of Europe’s single currency are in deep trouble thanks to the imbalances within the eurozone, says Martin Wolf. And none of the solutions looks palatable
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The underpinnings of our global economy and so of our globalised civilisation remain dangerously fragile. Somehow, we must manage to sustain a dynamic global economy, promote development, deliver environmental sustainability and ensure peaceful and co-operative international relations, says Martin Wolf
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The rest of the world was inclined to believe that the west, whatever its faults, knew what it was doing. But then the teacher failed the examination, says Martin Wolf
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Those parts of public sector spending that sustain the long-term health of the economy should not be sacrificed, says Martin Wolf
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Not only has the UK had a financial crisis, with the usual severe impact on output and the public finances; it has also been a ‘monocrop’ economy, with finance itself acting as the ‘crop’, says Martin Wolf
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What we are seeing is a failure of adjustment to changes in global competitiveness that has unhappy precedents, notably during the 1920s and 1930s, with the rise of the US, and during the 1960s and 1970s, with the rise of Europe and Japan, says Martin Wolf
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The era of reforms from Thatcher through to New Labour led to rapid growth which, even after recent falls, has left Britain better placed than most major economies, says Martin Wolf
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Next week’s summit will fall short, but at least there is now broad agreement that action is needed to tackle climate change, says Martin Wolf. Solving the problem needs a stable price for carbon, needs wealthy countries to pay up and needs big subsidies for new technology
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Slashing deficits now would be wrong, argues Martin Wolf. What is needed, instead, are credible fiscal institutions and a road map for tightening that will be implemented, automatically, as and when the private sector's spending recovers
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The case for generous subventions to banks is to restore the financial system to health, not to enrich bankers, says Martin Wolf
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Obama should have made clear the need for China to revalue its currency and rebalance the global economy when he met Hu Jintao, says Martin Wolf. He could reasonably threaten punitive action, such is the need for change
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Has capitalism failed, as communism did? No. Some transition countries are in crisis; but transition itself is not. Liberal democracies and market economies can reform and adapt. They have shown these qualities before. They must do so again, says Martin Wolf
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Diversity brings social benefits, but also costs, arising from declining trust and erosion of a sense of shared values, says Martin Wolf
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It is idiotic to discuss the reduction of the huge fiscal deficits, without considering the nature of the offsetting adjustments in the private and external sectors. Some adjustments would be desirable, but others would be extremely perilous, says Martin Wolf
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The era when central banks could target inflation and assume that what was happening in asset and credit markets was no concern of theirs is over. Not only can asset prices be valued; they have to be, argues Martin Wolf
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There is a way of making finance safe. But it would be radical: deposits would be 100 per cent reserve backed; and the liabilities of other investment vehicles would be adjusted for the market value of their assets at all times. Banking would disappear, argues Martin Wolf.
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This recovery has been no accident. When central bank money is almost free, prices of risky assets are recovering, competitors have disappeared or are weakened, making money is a relatively simple matter for the strong survivors, argues Martin Wolf
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Recent figures have proved that the dollar’s fall is a symptom of success, not of failure. All the same, the dollar-based global monetary system is defective. It would be good to start building alternative arrangements, says Martin Wolf
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In deciding what to do about the UK's general government deficit, we must recognise the uncertainties: we do not know how big the “structural” fiscal deficit is; we do not know how long correction can be delayed before investors lose confidence; and we do not know how far a fiscal tightening will weaken aggregate demand. But the costs of being too optimistic are likely to be higher than of being too pessimistic. That should determine how policymakers respond.
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The economy is back on track, but it is too soon to celebrate victory, says Martin Wolf. Rebalancing, reform and regulation are still needed, none of which will be easy. Resistance from the banks is already threatening to poison the political debate
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Demanding that banks act as narrow utilities solves the problem of the financial system taking control of the power to print money, but would need to be paired with a ban on other forms of banking. Such radical ideas may yet be entertained, says Martin Wolf
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Martin Wolf welcomes a seminal empirical study of the frequently repeated cycles of euphoria, panic and default in public debt and global finance
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Only in a country both besotted with property and determined to tax the middle classes, rather than the hugely wealthy, would people object to this obviously just idea, says Martin Wolf
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Remember how poor hundreds of millions of Chinese still are. Then consider that the net transfer of resources abroad was equal to a third of personal consumption. China needs to increase consumption, and that means revaluing the currency, says Martin Wolf
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No normal profit-seeking business can operate without a credible threat of bankruptcy, says Martin Wolf
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China has emerged as the most significant winner from the global financial crisis. At the end of 2008, many questioned whether China would achieve its growth target of 8 per cent in 2009. Who now dares to do so?, asks Martin Wolf
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The debate is the right one but the more one analyses the debate and what is happening, the more difficult it is to believe that a safer and more responsible industry is emerging, argues Martin Wolf
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The rescue of the financial system, unprecedented monetary easing and fiscal expansion have indeed put a floor under the world economy. But it is too early for the Group of 20 leading economies to pat themselves on the back, argues Martin Wolf
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What would need to change if India were to become an affluent country in one generation? A great deal, says Martin Wolf
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One of the results of this whole crisis is to imperil central bank independence and not just in the UK, says Martin Wolf
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Already the panic of 2008 is fading, yet without radical changes another crisis is certain, says Martin Wolf
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Cuts in real spending are as inevitable under Labour as under the Tories. The only question is where they might fall, says Martin Wolf
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The great likelihood is that the world economy will need aggressive monetary and fiscal policies far longer than many believe, says Martin Wolf
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Most of the deficit increase came from a surge in spending and most of the drop must be from spending curbs, says Martin Wolf
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How should one manage a sector that produces such 'bads'? The answer is: in the same way as any polluting activity, says Martin Wolf
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Is the current crisis a watershed, with market-led globalisation, financial capitalism and western domination on the one side and protectionism, regulation and Asian predominance on the other? Or will historians judge it, instead, as an event caused by fools, signifying little, asks Martin Wolf
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The more the crisis unfolds, the more evident it is that incentives in the financial system were (and are) badly distorted, says Martin Wolf. At the end, will the number of institutions thought 'too big to fail' be as large as now and, if so, how will they be controlled?
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The UK has lost control over public spending. Like it or not, voters must elect a government willing to get it back, says Martin Wolf
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Over almost three decades, policymakers became ever more confident they had found, in inflation targeting, the holy grail of fiat (or man-made) money. Today, they are struggling with the deepest recession since the 1930s and the danger of deflation. How can it have gone so wrong, asks Martin Wolf
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The largest economies have made the fundamental decision to prevent bankruptcy, but this is only the first step on the long road to financial health. Those who hope for a swift return to what they thought normal two years ago are deluded, says Martin Wolf
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Fiscal deterioration in the UK and declines in manufactured output in Germany and Japan are two sides of one coin, says Martin Wolf
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Is the worst behind us? In a word, No. The rate of economic decline is decelerating. But it is too soon even to be sure of a turnround, let alone of a return to rapid growth. These are still early days, argues Martin Wolf.
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Decisive restructuring is necessary, because bankruptcy - and so losses for unsecured creditors - must be a part of any durable solution to this economic crisis, says Martin Wolf
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Given the scale of the world's macroeconomic imbalances, it is far from obvious that higher regulatory standards alone would have saved the world. This is not just a matter of historical interest. It is also relevant to the sustainability of the recovery, says Martin Wolf
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The ability to navigate through the financial crisis depends on the sincerity of the authorities' commitment to long-term stability, says Martin Wolf.
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The G20 summit is dealing with the short-term symptoms of chronic global excess. The world economy cannot be safely balanced by a small number of countries spending themselves into bankruptcy. Finding a longer-term cure for the illness still lies ahead
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With the IMF expecting world output to shrink by up to 1 per cent this year and the economies of the advanced countries to shrink by between 3 and 3.5 per cent, this is the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s. So far the congressional response has been a disaster
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Yet even this radicalism is limited: the report rejects division of the financial system into utilities and a casino.
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Is there good reason to expect huge increases in public sector indebtedness across the globe? Yes. But this does not guarantee defaults.
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The right thing to do is 'more than enough.' It will always be possible to withdraw stimulus a year or two hence. It will be far more difficult to make action effective if depression, both economic and social, takes hold.
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If the UK government believes bail-out must be piled upon bail-out, then banking must be treated as a regulated utility - end of story.
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We are painfully learning that the world's mega-banks are too complex to manage, too big to fail and too hard to restructure. Nobody would wish to start from here. But, as worries in the stock market show, banks must be fixed, in an orderly and systematic way.
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The London summit of 1933 marked the moment at which joint efforts to manage the Great Depression collapsed. The summit of the Group of 20 countries, which will be held in the same city on April 2, must turn out quite differently.
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A cogent analysis of prospects for inflation has to be broader and more long term in thinking than that in the Bank of England inflation report.
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How far is that experience relevant to today? Japan was able to rely on exports to a buoyant world economy. This crisis is global: the bubbles and financial mania spread across much of the western world.
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The US president must do far more than hope for the best. Yet that is what one sees in his stimulus programme and, judging from the sketchy announcement by the Treasury secretary, in the new plans for fixing the banking system.
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I would far rather have to manage the UK through this crisis, despite the challenges, than Spain or Ireland, says Martin Wolf.
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However easy it is to blame the US for global economic woes, it is also to the US that the world looks for a solution. Concerted action is needed to reverse the downward spiral of despair, and that will only occur if the US gives leadership.
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Countries with large current account surpluses have long demanded an end to the profligate borrowing and spending of the customers upon whom they depended. They should have been careful what they wished for.
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By offering guarantees, the government could be subsidising the recreation of a market in lemons.
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One idea the new US president should propose is a committee at the highest level to recommend a radical restructuring of global institutions. This would aim to lower the risk of emerging market crises like those that preceded the bubbles in advanced countries.
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If the fiscal deficits are to fall sharply in the medium term, as they need to, the new US president needs effective programmes for private sector deleveraging and global reform and adjustment.
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The utterances of leading Labour and Conservative politicians do not explain how the UK is to emerge from its current quagmire.
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Some entertain hopes of restoring the globally unbalanced economic growth of the middle years of this decade. They are wrong. Our choice is between a better balanced world economy and disintegration. And it must be made this year.
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Sixty-two years after the death of John Maynard Keynes, the father of macroeconomics, it is easier for us to understand what remains relevant in his teaching as the financial crisis deepens.
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Central banks may resort to their most powerful weapons against deflation: the printing press and the so-called helicopter drop of money. Will this work? Yes. But returning to normality will prove far more elusive.
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The biggest challenge is getting through the extended emergency support to a more sustainable structure, says Martin Wolf
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A robust recovery would eliminate the danger of some countries being badly damaged. If it does arrive, there is no doubt where it will come from: not from the actions of Germany to sustain domestic demand, but from profligate Anglo-Saxons.
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The world has run out of willing and creditworthy private borrowers. In the long run, the global economy will have to rebalance. As in the 1930s, if the surplus countries do not expand domestic demand, the open world economy may even break down.
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Is the UK on the road to disaster? Is it mad to tackle a calamity caused by excessive borrowing with still more borrowing? No, if the government remains creditworthy. Yes, if it does not. So, after its pre-Budget report, should you trust the UK government with your money, or not?
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We have bad news and good news. The bad news is that the world economy is teetering on the brink. The good news is that, after an extended period of overvaluation, stock markets are, at last, attractively priced. This should have enticing implications for investors and even for audacious governments.
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UK chancellor Alistair Darling has delivered not a pre-Budget report, but a crisis budget. Profligacy has replaced prudence as the watchword. But, the chancellor would insist, it is profligacy with a purpose. Will the government get away with its gamble?
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Panic has seized markets. Deep depressions deliver not healthy cleansing of excess, but social and political catastrophe. The time for aggressive countervailing action is now.
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In an uncertain world, an economy needs mechanisms of adjustment. The exchange rate is the most powerful such mechanism. Today's extreme circumstances have made the case for retaining exchange-rate flexibility not weaker, but stronger, says Martin Wolf.
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The country must temper the needed adjustment to the shock, without destroying its longer-term credibility, says Martin Wolf.
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The president-elect must build on the achievements of his predecessors rather than turn the US away from the world. He must push reforms that help most Americans gain from globalisation and promote reforms abroad, says Martin Wolf.
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The Bank of England's monetary policy committee has, in extreme circumstances, adopted the risk management approach followed by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve. It was right to do so.
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The idea that a quick recession would purge the world of past excesses is ludicrous. Choosing to risk a catastrophic downward spiral would be like deciding to let a city burn in order to punish someone who smoked in bed. Everything possible must be done to prevent the inescapable recession from turning into something worse, says Martin Wolf.
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The idea that a quick recession would purge the world of past excesses is ludicrous. Choosing to risk a catastrophic downward spiral would be like deciding to let a city burn in order to punish someone who smoked in bed. Everything possible must be done to prevent the inescapable recession from turning into something worse, says Martin Wolf.
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The worst consequences of the banking crisis - a true depression - have been avoided. But the impact of the implosion of what economist Nouriel Roubini calls 'the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in history' is hitting real economies hard, says Martin Wolf.
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Leading economists from London Business School - Lucrezia Reichln, Richard Portes, Andrew Scott and Helene Rey - dissect the roots of the financial crisis, and debate how badly the real economy will be affected. The debate was chaired on Oct 14 by Mark Malcolmson in front of alumni of the LBS.
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The costs of decisive action were vastly less than those of inaction. The fiscal burden should prove quite manageable, says Martin Wolf.
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The winner of the FT-Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award tells Andrew Hill, FT city editor, how concerns about the signals coming out of markets in 2007 inspired his book When Markets Collide. He warns of more turbulence to come.
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Policymakers finally realised that a plan for dealing with such a severe financial crisis must contain those elements that are individually necessary and collectively sufficient. The announced programmes are, in scale and construction, what is needed, says Martin Wolf.
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Martin Wolf and Gillian Tett, FT capital markets editor, discuss how highly leveraged Iceland came unstuck in the global financial crisis, and how the risk of sovereign default has grown there and in other countries
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The fear driving the breakdown in financial markets is as exaggerated as the greed that drove the opposite behaviour a little while ago. But unjustified panic also causes devastation. Martin Wolf argues it must be halted, not next week, but right now.
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In this special podcast, Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, discusses with FT leader writers, Christopher Adams and Chris Cook, whether the UK bank rescue plan will work, and how this week's G7 summit should react.
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As the financial crisis deepens, should the UK follow the US rescue package? Martin Wolf says on balance, the answer is: no. But the question raises some big issues: above all, he says that prudence today demands bold actions.
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It is just over 70 years since the Great Depression. Judged by its rejection of the US Treasury's bail-out plan, Congress believes it is time to risk another one. Martin Wolf argues a slump is not inevitable but only if action is taken to prevent one.
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The US Treasury secretary views the core challenge as illiquidity, not insolvency. By creating a market for toxic assets, he hopes to halt the spiral of falling prices and bankruptcies. But the scheme is neither necessary nor efficient, says Martin Wolf
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Do not panic: the UK economy ought to be able to get through this crisis without a recession as deep as those of the early 1980s and 1990s, says Martin Wolf
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Is the worst now over? Certainly not. The biggest outstanding question is whether government-led rescues of undercapitalised financial systems will be needed. This is now looking increasingly likely, says Martin Wolf
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Is the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac an example of US policymaking that the UK, quite as vulnerable to the collapse in the housing market, should follow? Martin Wolf very much hopes it will not. But the pressures on the UK government to act will be strong
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In this special podcast, FT editor Lionel Barber chairs a debate between Martin Wolf and John Kay on the limits to regulating the banks. The debate was inspired by opposing articles these two leading economics experts wrote in March this year (see below).
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The US public has ended up with an open-ended guarantee of the liabilities created by supposedly private entities. It is a bad place to be
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A weak government is a risk. Any policies it introduces must avoid undermining confidence in the UK???s policy regime.
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This presidential election might well determine the character of the next, possibly final, epoch of Anglo-American global hegemony. The question is whether the American people will choose the instinct for conflict or that for co-operation.
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Superannuated cold warriors and neo-cons are salivating over the notion of a new cold war with Russia
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It is almost a year since the US subprime crisis went global. The hope that the repricing of risk would be no more than a brief interruption has been disappointed. So where is the world economy now?
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Martin Wolf examines the outlook for the UK property market, concluding that a big drop in house prices is likely. This is attributed partly to extraordinarily high prices and partly to the unavailability of credit.
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Martin Wolf reflects on why the financial crisis happened and the risks now facing the global economy. He also considers how the frequency and severity of future crises can be reduced.
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Tackling man-made climate change is much the most complex collective action problem in human history. Solving it will require concerted efforts from both developed and developing countries over at least a century. But there is no choice but to try.
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In the short term, the biggest monetary policy requirement is a tightening in emerging economies, many of which have strongly negative real interest rates. As important is letting jumps in energy prices pass through, forcing adjustments in energy use, says Martin Wolf.
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What is ahead will be tougher than the expansion the UK has been used to for 16 years. But it is not the end of the world, says Martin Wolf.
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What explains the combination of a 'credit crunch' in the US with soaring commodity prices and rising inflation across the globe? Are these related events? So far this is not a return to the 1970s. But action is needed to keep this true, suggests Martin Wolf.
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Investors have been able to buy utility companies, replace the equity with debt and enjoy a licence to print money. This is intolerable, argues Martin Wolf.
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Is it possible for the vast mass of humanity to enjoy the living standards of today's high-income countries? Jeffrey Sachs has produced an analysis that manages to be both pessimistic and optimistic at the same time. One might not be quite as optimistic about the solutions. But one must recognise the salience of the challenges, argues Martin Wolf.
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Achieving sustained, rapid growth turns out to be very hard. This is no objection to the findings of the Growth Report - it is, rather, an admission of how little we know about such a complex economic, social and political process.
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If a country is to join the eurozone, its people must be willing to cope with the consequences forever.
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The eurozone is a triumph as a monetary union. Yet it is much less so as an economic union. Its creation has not caused the acceleration in dynamism that proponents hoped for - if anything, structural reforms have slowed.
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Everybody should remember, above all, that the opening of the world economy is the west's greatest economic policy achievement. It would be a tragedy if it were to turn its back on the world when the rest of humanity is at last turning towards it.
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In the 1970s, letting inflation rip, to avoid pain in the short run, increased it in the long run. The UK must not repeat that error.
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Oil is a finite resource; it drives global transport; and if emerging economies consumed it as Europeans do, world consumption would jump by 150 per cent. Don't blame the high price on speculators and big bad oil companies, says Martin Wolf. The reality is different.
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Unless we are comfortable with a crisis every five years or so, financial regulation must be radically reconsidered. Tighter rules are desirable in the longer-run interests of the banking industry itself let alone the public's. What should such regulation look like?
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What does the economic turmoil mean for the UK economy? This is not a question about prospects for the next year. It is deeper than that: how well can an economy long characterised by soaring house prices, exploding debt and a dynamic financial sector adjust to a new world?
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Nobody knows how long these shocks will last, but they demand rapid policy changes across the globe. We must choose between fragmenting markets further and integrating them, between helping the poor and letting even more starve.
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How do we persuade citizens the rise of the emerging countries, the brightest story of our era, is to be welcomed, asks Martin Wolf.
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It is high time the British realised a people cannot become rich by selling ever more expensive houses to one another, argues Martin Wolf
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A voluntary banking code is almost certainly not worth the paper it is written on. If regulation is to be effective, it must cover all relevant institutions and the entire balance sheet and, not least, it must make finance less pro-cyclical, argues Martin Wolf
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The former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once lauded as the 'maestro', has, to his discomfort, become the scapegoat for the crisis. Much of the criticism is highly unfair, but there are areas where he is wrong.
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While the economic arguments of a high level of net immigration are weak, this does not mean that substantial gross immigration, particularly of skilled people, is undesirable.
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Neither households nor the financial sector as a whole can de-leverage swiftly, other than via a calamitous mass default or by shifting their debt elsewhere, usually on to the government. A private-sector financial mania will finish up as public-sector pain.
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For three decades we have moved towards market-driven financial systems. By its decision to rescue Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve, the institution responsible for monetary policy in the US, chief protagonist of free-market capitalism, declared this era over.
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Just as it is particularly difficult to know whether a manager is skilful rather than lucky, it is hard to distinguish talented managers from untalented, so the business is bound to attract the unscrupulous and unskilled.
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The chancellor used the new watchword 'stability' 23 times. 'Prudence', however, never crossed his lips. This is a telling shift.
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A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you are talking real money, even for the US. Most of the losses will fall not on the financial sector but elsewhere.
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'Only the little people pay taxes' - that is the principle behind all the screaming about non-dom taxation, argues Martin Wolf.
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If central banks are confident commodity prices will stop rising, they should slash rates. But, given the continued growth of emerging economies, they cannot be sure of that. Worse, core inflation seems to be drifting upwards.
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When bubbles burst, asset prices decline, net worth of non-financial borrowers shrinks and illiquidity and insolvency emerge in the financial system. The US government can rescue the economy. It is now being forced to do so. But that is not the end of this story
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The lesson for the government seems to be it is not enough to make what seem to be the right decisions if one does so in the wrong way, suggests Martin Wolf.
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The link between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers for the US and the world. The US public sector is coming to the rescue and will succeed, but the journey will be uncomfortable, argues Martin Wolf
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In place of erstwhile hopes for the emergence of a democracy, we have proto-fascism: aggrieved nationalism; bullying of smaller nations; a cult of the strong leader; suspicion of enemies within; and resentment of foreigners.
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The credit crunch is the economy's brutal way of telling us that this era of unsustainable growth in spending and debt is over.
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We have a banking sector that has a demonstrated capacity to generate huge crises because of the incentives to take on under-appreciated risks. We lack the will and even the capacity to regulate it, yet have no obvious alternative but to try to do so.
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If the US succeeds in its ???risk management', it will renew and, at worst, exacerbate the fragility, both domestic and international, that triggered the turmoil. If it fails, the US and, perhaps, much of the rest of the world could well suffer a prolonged period of economic weakness.
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A medium-term inflation target provides a clear objective for policy and so the best chance of avoiding recession. To change ships in the midst of a storm would be a catastrophic blunder.
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For one person it feels like a snake; for another a leathery sail. A third says a tree trunk. A fourth a pull rope. Explanations for what has happened to the world economy are just as diverse. The accurate story is that it is a combination of the various elements.
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The regulatory net should cover all systemically important financial institutions. The question the authorities need to ask themselves is simple: if a specific institution fell into substantial difficulty would they have to intervene?
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Policymakers must focus on preserving credibly low inflation, essential if a retreat of the pound is not to become a rout, argues Martin Wolf.
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The health of the global economy demands the survival of an open world. Whether the present crisis proves a blip or the end of an era depends on whether openness survives, says Martin Wolf
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It is vital for hopes of peace to sustain the positive-sum world economy in which everybody can become better off, but no less vital to tackle the environmental challenges it has thrown up. The condition for success is investment in human ingenuity, argues Martin Wolf
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The Bank of England must not abandon all caution. It will be able to rescue the real economy if and only if low inflation remains believable, suggests Martin Wolf
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The money to be dropped by central banks now is not that large. But if this does not work, argues Martin Wolf, more will surely follow
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The credit crisis may be just as important a watershed for financial markets and the world economy as the emerging market financial crises of 1997 and 1998 and the bubble in technology stocks that burst in 2000. Martin Wolf gathers the evidence
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For people to tolerate radical change in energy use, they must first be frightened and then offered a good way out. No country will deliver big cuts if the US does not. There will be no technological leaps unless the US commits resources, says Martin Wolf
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That three men pleaded guilty to wire fraud does not prove they were. It demonstrates that the offers made by US prosecutors are of a kind sensible people cannot refuse, argues Martin Wolf
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What is wrong with the sector? It is too profitable, over-protected and takes risks, which is why a crisis emerges every few years. But the public sector subsidises this risk-taking, argues Martin Wolf
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It is plausible that the US will experience a lengthy period of sluggish growth in domestic private demand, partially offset by fiscal expansion and an improvement in net exports. The rest of the world must now become the demand engines of the world economy, argues Martin Wolf
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The blame for the bank's vulnerability lies with its management, argues Martin Wolf
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The rest of the world wishes to enjoy the energy-intensive lifestyles that have, hitherto, been the privilege of less than a sixth of humanity. This desire has big consequences for the world's economic, strategic and environmental future, argues Martin Wolf
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A capitalism that generates vast wealth, partly on the back of political connections, and rewards those who resist competition is likely to generate social and political drawbacks, argues Martin Wolf.
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The British government has run a 'stealth' immigration policy. But that approach is now unworkable. Perhaps the UK should move to market compatible systems, such as auction of work permits, argues Martin Wolf.
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Is it possible to justify complex and expensive subsidies, mandates and protectionist measures? No. But that does not stop people from trying.
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According to the IMF, the world is in the midst of a period of exceptional growth. While a happy outcome depends on sustained openness and monetary stability, this can no longer be ensured by developed countries alone. Emerging markets have become big players, argues Martin Wolf.
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Arguments from wealthy people that they should pay less tax because they shower benefits upon us, should be treated with contempt, says Martin Wolf
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Should we be concerned that states are emerging as major owners of wealth, in particular through 'sovereign wealth funds', asks Martin Wolf.
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The persistence of sizeable structural overall deficits leaves the government little room to cope with bad news, argues Martin Wolf.
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Is the rest of the world too reliant on the US for economic growth, asks Martin Wolf.
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The impact of a correction in property prices and household spending would be negative: another Anglo-Saxon spending and debt machine would bite the dust, argues Martin Wolf.
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It is possible to sell complex products safely, but only for companies that demonstrably care about their reputations, argues Martin Wolf.
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The Federal Reserve may well have been right to be bold last week. But it cannot be foolhardy about inflation, argues Martin Wolf.
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The Bank is concerned about the health of the economy, while the banks are concerned only about their survival. Guess who swerved first?
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Financial panic has hit both the public and politicians of the UK over the past week, to deliver two remarkable results.
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The era in which the world could rely on the engine of US consumption is now at an end.
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In the old system hospitals hired senior house officers; now they are sent them like a parcel of slaves, argues Martin Wolf.
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Regulation may fall between hard and impossible. It is why financial institutions must never be too big to fail.
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If some of the most powerful institutions in the world have been playing with fire, they need to feel the burns.
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One way to improve London airports is to price the growth of flying out of the skies. But which government would dare, asks Martin Wolf
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American households must spend more than their incomes. If they fail to do so, they face the threat of recession, says Martin Wolf
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Markets must regulate themselves. The only thing likely to persuade them to do so is the certainty that players will be allowed to go bust, argues Martin Wolf
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Alistair Darling has the opportunity to undo some mistakes. It will take some courage to take on the prime minister but his predecessor at the Treasury has shown it can be done
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The changes to be put forward in Brussels are inherently constitutional and justify a referendum, argues Martin Wolf.
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Interpreting changes in stock growth is difficult and, in the UK, extremely controversial
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There are two explanations for global capital flows: a money glut and a savings glut
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The WSJ is not threatened with disappearance but instead with inclusion in the world's most dynamic media empire
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The new 'science' of happiness has failed to conquer classical Anglo-Saxon liberalism.
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It is almost inconceivable that Beijing will grant what look like one-sided concessions to demands from the 'sole superpower'. That would be humiliating.
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Yeltsin's story may then be seen as at best a partial success and at worst a gross failure. I would regard it as closer to the former.
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For its credibility, the monetary policy committee will have to come down hard on the UK's inflation surge, even if it means overkill on interest rates.
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Martin Wolf discusses the demise of the bank's moral authority in its anti-corruption drive.
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The right policy is to combine openness to trade with a politically acceptable sharing of the gains in high-income countries. The challenge is huge. But it is one at which we cannot afford to fail.
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The US-South Korea trade deal has big dangers of fragmentation for global trade, with serious implications for businesses.
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A decade or so from today we should have a far better idea than today of how far one of Europe's hitherto most successful economies is able to thrive within the straitjacket of the currency union.
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Chancellor Gordon Brown's eleventh and final Budget contained apparently bold initiatives but on closer inspection it was sleight of hand to please Labour backbenchers but of modest economic benefit.
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Though the differences are striking, by looking carefully at China and India one can learn about their prospects for growth.
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