Econ Shout: Recent Episodes
Scott Murray
Scott Murray, CFA and adjunct professor of Economics at Franklin University provides timely analysis of economic information for individuals mindful of their financial goals.
Household gain in the first quarter as equities roared while real estate fell for the third-straight quarter.
Today's data points to healthy labor market and weak housing, a dilemma of today's economy.
Global flash purchase manager surveys showed the contrast between the service and manufacturing sides of the economy.
Surprising U.S. flash economic readings today along with healthy international service numbers suggest the expansion rolls on.
Investors should look to 2024 concerning earnings expectations, not first quarter 2023.
Fed tightening hurt financial services firms in the fourth quarter, setting up the banking crisis in the first quarter and beyond.
Higher purchase mortgage applications suggest more demand as the summer selling season approaches.
Weak durable goods new orders further showed the impact on the bank crisis on the real economy.
UK inflation jump points the conflict between the Fed and banking system that has caused the "run on the bank."
Happy 3rd Anniversary to the lockdown - First Republic Bank and Credit Suisse show the lingering affects.
Health retail sales and PPI point to economic gains while the banking crisis overhangs the market.
Employment numbers shows needs for tightening while Silcon Valley Bank show the hazards.
Consumer credit wanes as consumers tire of high-ticket items while stress causes credit card balances to grow.
Healthy labor market and productivity news add to the improvement in the market's attitude.
Strong government spending helps fourth quarter GDP but unnerves fiscal-concerned markets.
Global flash PMIs show improvements in Europe and Japan with the U.K. and Australia struggling.
The first full week of the holiday spending season may be critical for 2023 Fed Funds expectations.
The potential rail strike reminds of the importance of this mode of transportation for goods.
Better inflation news and a positive early look to November are encouraging signs for the economy.
The outsized Fed rate hikes seem to be ending, suggesting less stress on financial firms and corporate balance sheets.
Strong personal spending in September suggests the consumer has confidence about the future.
Weak trade and inventory numbers suggest 3Q GDP may miss expectations when released tomorrow.
Bank of Japan intervened today to stabilize their currency, another central bank that is reacting to inflation and the strength of the dollar.
Weak existing home sales showed the effect of the higher mortgage rates and prices on the economy.
Housing starts disappointed as higher mortgage rates and prices weighed on new home buyers.
Today's higher-than-expected Producers Price Index suggests inflation pressures linger.
Slower growth in manufacturing and weak European purchasing management sentiment highlighted today's economic news.
Higher than expected August inflation suggest that elevated inflation may last longer than expected.
Low unemployment claims and improved consumer spending in the second quarter highlighed today's economic news.
New home sales, home prices, retail inventories and Bank of England highlught today's economic news.
Consumer confidence and durable goods highlight today's economic news. Please see video link: https://youtu.be/ibJBY_ri-Ic
Weak global purchasing manager surveys suggest European recession in second half of 2022.
Housing starts, Germany PPI, and RBA meeting minutes highlighted today's economic news.
A sharp increase in German producers price index significantly increase world interest rates today.
Negative productivity and weak small business optimism headlined today's economic numbers.
A deceleration in prices paid by manufacturing firms highlighted today's economic news.
The lack of small business optimism and a weak Germany ZEW survey of economic expectations lead the economic news today.
Inflation for May, from the customer spending point of view, headlined the morning's new.
U.S. flash PMIs, St. Louis Fed president comments, and Germany IFO survey are the headlines today.
Today's headlines are Chair Powell's comments, European flash PMIs, and jobless claims.
Industrial production was an important reading for the auto industry on Friday. Highlights for this week will be home sales and global flash purchasing managers surveys.
The war in Ukraine is the focus of the market. Uncertainty abounds with liquidity of markets being challenged. Scott Murray, CFA looks backwards to see the opportunities ahead. Over the long-term, the solid household financial positions suggested a strong expansion ahead after the uncertainty eases.
Housing took center stage today. December permits were the highest since January. Still, slow completion show the impact of material and labor shortages. Scott Murray, CFA provides a daily economic comment.
China, Germany economic expectations, and Empire Manufacturing headlined the economic news for January 18th. An additional stimulus from China and a better outlook for Germany automotive industry points to growth ahead. Scott Murray, CFA provides an daily economic review.
Corporate profit growth is robust. From 2017 to 2023, S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to be up more than 80% on a per share basis. Scott Murray, CFA discusses the robust revenue growth which builds on the elevated profit margin. 2022 should be another strong years for profit gains.
Retail sales fell, but were solid especially compared pre-pandemic levels. Consumers are confident, and are cautiously looking ahead. Industrial production is healthy, forecasting solid export activity ahead. Scott Murray, CFA provides insights into today's economic data.
Inflation may be declining. Good news today as the Producer Price Index failed to match expectations. A bonus today was the very low level of continuing unemployment claims. Scott Murray, CFA provides a daily economic update.
Inflation, where? Inflation is almost everyone and is becoming more persist. Scott Murray, CFA provides a daily economic comment.
Small business lack of optimism highlighted today's economic releases. In addition, Chair Powell faces confirmation hearings. Scott Murray, CFA provides insights into today's economic developments.
200 individuals in Kazakhstan control more half of the country's wealth. A rise in gas prices set of a week of protests. Scott Murray, CFA provides a history of Kazakhstan and notes the mineral wealth of the country. The concentration of wealth in few individuals can spark social unrest.
Watch out for inflation and federal government fiscal numbers this week. Oil could push the inflation numbers higher, not to mention the expectations of near seven percent increase year over year. Scott Murray, CFA notes the potential overhang from the conflict in Kazakhstan on the oil market.
Today's employment growth number for December missed. While the topline reading is not that important, the weak participation rate should concern Fed officials. Scott Murray, CFA provides insight on this release, Canadian employment, and Germany industrial production.
The Fed takes center stage. Markets are expecting aggressive Fed action this year. What happened last time the market expected an aggressive start to a tightening cycle. Scott Murray, CFA provides daily economic analysis.
Strong ADP numbers and concerns about the number of quitters led the economic news for 1-5-22. Scott Murray, CFA provides brief analysis of these economic releases.
The market rose more than 1% 34 times in 2021, 12 more times than in 2019. A crash is a sharp fall in a price of an asset, but sharp moves were more frequently higher last year. Scott Murray, CFA describes the effect of creative destruction on the market, Companies with technology and productivity advantages have creativity built new business models while weak firms rapidly lose market share.
The new year begins new decisions. Recognizing heuristics that frequently led to poor decisions helps lay the foundation to better outcomes. Scott Murray, CFA uses the trend to "go forward it" on fourth down to illustrate outcome based analysis. With the focus on winning the game, NFL coaches have embraced the opportunity a fresh set of downs.
Investors are in the waiting place, looking for solid earnings growth and hikes the fed funds. Higher case counts could impede these actions. Scott Murray, CFA provides a look ahead to 2022, noting the strong equity performance this year and accommodative central bank. Strong economic growth should boost equities while encouraging the Fed to start a tightening cycle.
The likelihood of a tornado hit in a 70 by 50-mile region is less than one half of a tenth of one percent. The storms over weekend showed the devasting effects natural disasters can have a community. With condolences to the people affected by the outbreak, Scott E. Murray, CFA notes the importance of the property/casualty insurance in protecting property. Homeowner's and renter's coverage are products that be appropriate to households to protect their property against devasting events.
Improved infrastructure provides a key catalyst for economic growth. The development of the Appalachian Highway System has added more than $10 billion annually in economic activity to this impoverished region. Scott Murray, CFA highlights the success of physical infrastructure and the opportunities of virtual connectivity in the Appalachian region. The community based approach utilized provides a model for the rest of the country.
The market goes up, and the market goes down. On November 26th, 2021, the market declined more than two percent. Scott Murray, CFA discuss how investors should point this decline in perspective. In the 2009 to 2020 bull market, declines of more ten percent, corrections, five times Should investors be worried?
Deere employees won a sizable wage increase, as need for workers and record profits collided. Skilled workers have an advantage, with more than 50% of small business are struggle to find qualified employees - a far cry from labor surpluses of the early 1800s. Scott Murray, CFA notes the wide difference of CEO's pay to median employees. The new virtual mobility adds more options for workers who are more eager to quit and find a new opportunity.
Shelves are almost empty. Retail sales in October were almost $640 billion, more than $100 billion above pre-COVID levels. Scott Murray, CFA uses the old newsboy inventory analysis to discuss the low inventory levels in stores. Looking ahead, more safety stock and strong supply chains should position the economy for a strong expansion.
October was the fiftieth best month since 1947, amazing since there have been roughly 900 months over that time period. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield rose from 30 basis points to more than 50, an 80% uptick in yield. Scott Murray, CFA, reviews rocketing equities and rising expectations for a Fed rate hike. Also, consumers need to watch the price of oil and natural gas as the winter months approach.
Food prices are going up rapidly. Poor countries are struggling to feed their citizens. Scott Murray, CFA highlights the interaction of food imports and currency devaluation. Empty kitchen tables and weak currencies are recipes for political instability.
Washington continues to debate more fiscal stimulus. The Fed looks to tapper. Scott Murray, CFA discusses why some well intended policies fail to achieve their goals. Measure and monitoring are important tools to help policies achieve their society goals.
A Bitcoin EFT is expected to available soon. The National Bank Note encouraged banks to issue their own currency more than 150 years ago. Scott Murray, CFA describes the success and failure of this currencies regime. Are there lessons from the issuance of other currencies that foreshadow Bitcoin's future.
Washington is a buzz with talk of another fiscal stimulus. Low income households significantly increased spending when they recently received payments. Scott Murray, CFA, compares the recent payments to the fiscal stimulus acts passed during the Great Fiscal Recession. The proposed new programs, similar to the approach more than ten years ago, are likely to have less impact the economy less than the recent direct payments to households.
The price of natural gas is soaring. Winter is coming with forecasting calling for another cold La Nina chill. Scott Murray, CFA addresses the market failure occurring the natural gas market. Beyond this winter, what steps can be taken to keep this failure from casting a chill on the energy market for years to come.
The bottom 20% of Americans earn only 2% of the country's income. Social security and other social programs rising the total income to 8%. Scott Murray, CFA describes the drivers of the income inequality and programs that address the issue and their effects on households. This timely discussion adds to the debate about additional fiscal stimulus programs.
Goods are flying out of stores, and showrooms are empty. Still, outpatient surgeries are being postponed. Purchases of goods are brisk while service providers are hoping customers return. Scott Murray, CFA, discusses the customer's split personality. Weak last decade, robust demand for goods suggest a robust expansion ahead.
Direct payments to consumers was a powerful new medicine to fight a recession according the latest Fed research. This is a powerful tool for policymakers against downturn, recognizing that 50 have occurred since 1790. Scott Murray, CFA, describes the impact of recessions on workers and why is may "outlaw" economic downturns. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
The S&P 500 Index is on a roll. In August, the measure rose for the straight month. In addition, interest rates ended their free fall while natural gas bucked the broad decline in commodities. Scott Murray, CFA, provides a brief review of last month and notes encourage development that position the markets well for the future. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
Does the Federal Reserve Bank control too much of the economy. Both the First and the Second Bank of United States failed to have their charters renewed as citizens revolted against the authority of the federal government. Scott E. Murray, CFA, discusses the Fed's ownership of assets worth nearly 40% of the country's GDP. The bank has eased the COVID-19 crisis, but does continued monetary support damage the long-term health of the economy. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
Corn prices are retreating, good news for consumers. Still, commodity prices are up year to date, pushing up the cost for food. Scott Murray, CFA, looks beyond the recent price decline in corn and shows how this is good news for the consumer, especially as inflation fears rise. Please note the end of the podcast for important disclosures.
What is a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS)? Can these investments protect you against inflation which erodes your purchasing power. Scott Murray, CFA, describes these seemingly complex securities and illustrates how the face value of the debt instrument adjusts with the rise and fall of prices. A TIP may be a helpful tool in a portfolio as the expansion picks up steam.
July's employment report was great, adding another roughly one million workers. Still, millions of employees are absent compared with February 2020. Scott Murray, CFA, discusses what age groups and occupations have returned to work and which are missing in action. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
July marked the tenth straight rise in the S&P 500 Index. Bond yields dropped rapidly, rewarding fixed income investors. Scott Murray, CFA discusses the insights the markets are giving on the economy. Ahead, signs are bright for the expansion. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
What should the consumer do to stay plugged in. High electricity prices are hitting the consumer hard while still reeling from elevated prices at the pump. Scott Murray, CFA discusses the electricity market from both the generators' and consumers' prospective. Work from home added to demands on the grid, a dramatic change from benefiting from the comfort on the commercial workspace. Similarly, high natural gas prices are causing demand for coal to surge. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
Materials can't get there from here. Firms are cutting production, waiting for deliveries. The auto manufacturing industry is an important example. Scott Murray, CFA discusses the impact of shortages on the auto market and how shortages effect cost of living. Bottom line, inflation is new worry for the consumer and employer. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
Disappointing job gains and elevated jobless claims suggest a slowly healing jobs market. Scott Murray, CFA, looks deeper into the state jobless claims reports, to assess pockets of renewed strengthen and persist weakness. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
What happened in the financial markets in June 2021? Scott E. Murray, CFA discusses the investment themes that played out in the financial markets. The eighth straight S&P 500 gain, the tightening yield spread, and the rise in oil were the major topics highlighted. Please note the end of the podcast for significant disclosures.
What factors lead to purchasing or selling a home? Are we motivated by the economy, price, interest rates, or hope for capital appreciation. And how do these motivations intersect with today's red hot real estate market. Scott Murray, CFA walks thru consumer sentiment on buying and selling a home. Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
What to see tomorrow's newspaper today? Sure, some economic indicators give us a glimpse of the future. Scott Murray, CFA walks thru the leading indicators complied by the Conference Board. Good news, the future newspaper looks good today! Please note important disclosures at the end of the podcast.
What is the financial position of the average 45 year old? Scott Murray, CFA highlights the dramatic changes in individual's net worth over the last twenty years, focusing on the 45 year old. At this age, individuals are at the crossroads of spending and savings as key financial goals loom. Please note the important disclosures at the end of the podcast.