Nationwide Market Insights: Recent Episodes
Nationwide Economics
As we continue our five-episode series on retirement and investment strategies across different generations, this episode focuses on Baby Boomers—many of whom are already retired or preparing for retirement. Another major trend is increasingly reshaping the financial landscape: The Great Wealth Transfer. According to research from Cerulli Associates, an estimated $124 trillion in wealth is expected to be transferred between 2024 and 2048, with approximately $79 trillion coming from Baby Boomer households. Tom Duncan (Senior Director of Advanced Consulting Group) and Ben Ayers (Nationwide AVP and Senior Economist) discuss what these trends mean for retirees, investors, families, and future generations. [NFM-25266AO]
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led his second FOMC policy meeting this week. As expected, the committee kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. In his press conference, Warsh briefly discussed the current state of the economy and responded to several questions regarding the debate within the FOMC on potential rate hikes. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Head of Enterprise Portfolio Management Leo Svoboda share their reaction to his statement and press conference responses, the market's reaction, the 10-year Treasury yields, shape of the yield curve, AI-related debt issuance, and their outlook for future rate announcements from the Fed. [NFM-22911AO]
Agriculture is an important sector of the U.S. economy, and farmers continue to face a challenging mix of market, financial, and weather-related pressures. Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber discuss the outlook for farm income, crop production, and agricultural markets and what these trends could mean for food prices and consumers. [NFM-22911AO]
After inflation climbed three months in a row on rising energy prices, June provided a reversal of these trends. Investors are trying to gauge if and when the Fed may raise interest rates - especially since the renewed hostilities has sent energy prices higher again. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss how June's CPI report affects our outlook for inflation and monetary policy. They also provide their key takeaways from Fed Chair Warsh's first semi-annual testimony in front of Congress. [NFM-22911AO]
As North America hosts the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the United States is experiencing one of the largest sporting events in history - and the economic impact is expected to be massive with ripple effects reaching far beyond the stadiums. Jim McCoy (Nationwide's VP of Sports Marketing) and Oren Klachkin (AVP, Financial Market Economist) explore the impact that the World Cup and sports in general have on the U.S. economy. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber discuss the economic perspectives of America 250 and how the economy has evolved over the years - from prices and population shifts to global influence and emerging industries. We’ll also explore how regional celebrations and global events like the World Cup could shape economic activity in the years ahead. And finally, as we look ahead, we'll ask what historians might say about the economic choices we’re making today. [NFM-22911AO]
The FOMC just wrapped up its first meeting with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. What comments did Warsh provide on the state of the economy and where rates may be headed. Are hikes possibly in the future or could we see more cuts? What other changes could we see from the Fed under its new leader? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Investment Leader and Head of Fixed Income for Nationwide Brad Beman share their reaction to Warsh's comments and the outlook for the fed funds rate. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide recently hosted a Midyear Economic Roundtable on the economy and financial markets, with insight from Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Investment Officer Joel Coleman, Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett, and Nationwide's Vice President of Government Relations Ben Brewster. The group discussed how inflation has been impacted by the spike in energy prices, the resiliency of the consumer and financial markets, and the outlook for the rest of the year. [NFM-25266M7]
Nationwide Retirement Institute Kristi Rodriguez kick off this series by sharing their insight on what defines each generation, what shaped their financial mindset, and what each group can learn from one another. [NFM-25266M6]
As we head into the summer travel season, demand remains strong—but higher prices and evolving economic conditions are shaping how Americans plan their trips. What impact is the World Cup having on the travel industry? Nationwide's Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook for summer travel—from rising travel costs to shifting consumer behaviors. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin share their analysis of April's CPI report, how the markets are reacting, and how this rise in inflation could impact the fed funds rate. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber discuss the state of the housing market, exploring national trends, regional differences, policy impacts, and what lies ahead for housing in 2026 and beyond. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett discuss the factors that drove the FOMC's decision to hold rates steady in April. Kathy provides an update on the leadership changes at the Fed and how that could influence future policy. Mark shares his outlook for how the resilient markets are responding to the continued war in Iran. [NFM-25266M5]
Nationwide's Rebecca Wilder, Josephine Shea, and Jake Bupp discuss the impact of the war in Iran on the global economy, how different regions are holding up, where economic stress is most visible, and how global markets are responding to overlapping shocks. [NFM-25266M4]
After several years of tightening margins, U.S. farmers are now grappling with the added impact of the war in Iran and shifting market dynamics. Bridge payments and ongoing Farm Bill negotiations in Congress are offering some relief—though financial stress remains elevated. Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the current state of the agriculture industry, how farmers are responding to today’s pressures, and how this could impact the overall economy. [NFM-22911AO]
As a benefit of last year's “One Big Beautiful Bill”, tax refunds are expected to be much larger this year - boosting consumer spending and providing incentives for businesses. Nationwide's Senior Economist, Ben Ayers, and Senior Director of Advanced Consulting Group, Tom Duncan, discuss what these tax changes could mean for households, businesses, and the broader economy - as higher gas prices from the war in Iran and future tax uncertainty are complicating expectations for economic growth. [NFM-22911AO]
It’s been one year since “Liberation Day” (April 2, 2025) when the White House announced a range of new tariffs on many of our global trading partners. Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide’s VP of Government Relations, Ben Brewster, unpack how tariff policy has evolved over the past year and its impact on the economy and financial markets. They also discuss what's on the horizon for the economy and policymaking in a politically charged environment. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Kathy Bostjancic and Oren Klachkin break down the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged in March, the financial market's reaction, and what to watch for in the months ahead. We also examine how other major central banks’ decisions this week may reflect the broader health of the global economy amid the uncertainty from geopolitical events. [NFM-22911AO]
Geopolitical tensions have rattled energy markets this month—raising questions about what higher oil and gasoline costs could mean for inflation readings and the broader economic outlook. Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their insight on how oil prices impact inflation readings and what we expect for inflation in response to the conflict in Iran. [NFM-22911AO]
In this timely episode, Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief Investment Officer of Nationwide Funds Chris Graham break down how the recent conflict in Iran is influencing the U.S. economy, global financial markets, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.Together, they unpack the economic ripple effects that geopolitical shocks can create—from volatility in equities, bonds, and commodities to pressures on key sectors of the U.S. economy. The conversation also looks ahead, exploring market resilience and what investors may expect in the weeks surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting.Whether you're an investor, advisor, or someone tracking global economic trends, this episode offers actionable insights to help navigate uncertainty with patience over panic. [NFM-25266M2]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin analyze the final GDP report from 2025 and examine the Supreme Court’s decision that ruled against the Trump administration’s IEEPA‑based tariffs. [NFM-22911AO]
The housing market is one of the major drivers of today’s inflation trends, with affordability pressures touching millions of households. As home prices, rental rates, and borrowing costs continue to shift, understanding their impact on overall inflation is more important than ever. In this episode, Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Oren Klachkin discuss the forces behind shelter inflation, the recent proposal for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgage-backed securities to lower mortgage rates, and when conditions may start to feel more normal for buyers and renters. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the current state of the labor market, looking closely at hiring trends and the regions where the job market is growing the most. [NFM-22911AO]
Which direction is our economy heading? Some data show positive trends. But consumer and business surveys may provide a completely different view. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin compare the hard and soft economic data and explain why they are saying different things about our economy. We also discuss soft and hard data regarding the NFL championship game. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Financial Market Economist, Oren Klachkin, and Investment Leader and Head of Fixed Income for Nationwide, Brad Beman, discuss January's FOMC announcement to pause rate cuts, how the markets are responding, and when the Fed could cut rates again. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the current state of the auto industry, impact from tariffs, affordability concerns for consumers, and the outlook for 2026. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin analyze December's inflation and employment reports and how they could impact the markets and the Fed's decision on interest rates. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide hosted a forum on the economic and financial market outlook for 2026, featuring Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Investment Officer Joel Coleman, Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Vice President of Government Relations Ben Brewster, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers. Panelists cover a wide range of topics including the stimulus that could result from the One Big Beautiful Bill, the potential for additional rate cuts from the Fed, who could replace Chair Powell when his term ends in May, and how AI is impacting the markets and overall economy. [NFM-25266M1]
Kathy Bostjancic (Nationwide's Chief Economist), Ben Brewster (Vice President of Government Relations), and Tom Duncan (Senior Director, Advanced Consulting Group) explore how the tax law changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could shape the economy, influence planning strategies, and create new opportunities for growth. [NFM-23971M9]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Head of Enterprise Portfolio Management Leo Svoboda discuss December's cut in the fed funds rate, its effect on long-term rates, and their outlook on additional rate cuts in 2026. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the impact that deregulation could have on home construction, the prospect of a 50-year mortgage, and how these factors could improve the supply and affordability of homes. [NFM-22911AO]
The turkey is carved, the traffic is wild, and deals are in flight—will shoppers go big or keep budgets tight? Nationwide's Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber join the cheer, to unwrap if inflation will Grinch up the year. From Black Friday frenzies to tariffs that bite, we’ll sleigh through the numbers and keep spirits bright. [NFM-22911AO]
The labor market has slowed down this year, contributing to recent cuts in the fed funds rate. What seems to be contributing to lower job numbers? How are economists and the Fed able to assess the strength of the labor market without the BLS employment report – which has been halted by the government shutdown. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss these topics and provide their outlook for job growth. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Vice President of Government Relations Ben Brewster unpack November's election results, the record-breaking government shutdown, the Supreme Court’s pivotal hearing on tariffs, and the economic implications of these developments. [NFM-22911AO]
When the data go dark, how does the Fed keep its balance? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide's Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett explore the risks, rationale, and ripple effects of the FOMC's recent policy decisions made during the ongoing government shutdown. [NFM-22911AO]
The number of Americans living to age 100 is growing and expected to quadruple in the next 30 years. Kevin Jestice (President, Nationwide Retirement Solutions) and Kathy Bostjancic (Nationwide's Chief Economist) discuss the prospect of living longer and its impact on retirement planning. [NFM-23971M8]
Nationwide Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin, Head of Emerging Markets at Nationwide Investments Rebecca Wilder, and Senior Emerging Markets Analyst Josephine Shea explore the dynamic - and often unpredictable world of emerging markets and global economic trends. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide's VP of Government Relations Ben Brewster, and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin discuss the government shutdown and its impact on economic growth, the labor market, and the FOMC's ability to assess inflation and employment ahead of their October meeting. [NFM-22911AO]
The Manufacturing sector has been in contraction due to weaker global demand following the pandemic. What additional impact are the new tariffs having? What can manufacturers do to navigate the current volatile conditions? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Manufacturing Lead and Nationwide AVP Erika Melander answer these questions and provide their insight. For more information on this topic, see our Manufacturing Resources https://www.nationwide.com/business/risk-management/industries/manufacturing/ [NFM-22911AO]
The FOMC held its September meeting this week and announced a cut in the fed funds rate - the first cut since November 2024. Are more rate cuts possible this year? How is the market responding to this cut and the potential for additional rate cuts? Nationwide's Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin and Investment Leader and Head of Fixed Income for Nationwide Brad Beman analyze the Fed's decision on the fed funds rate and the market's reaction and outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin share their analysis and outlook on inflation. Which sectors are still experiencing price increases, which sectors are not, and which ones are feeling the most pressure from tariffs? How could the recent CPI report impact the odds of a potential rate cut at this month's Fed meeting? [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their outlook for the housing market, specifically the affordability issues caused by high mortgage rates and rising prices. When could homes become more affordable again and how is this situation impacting rental properties? [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss how inflation has impacted school-related purchases this year - including college students - and how back-to-school consumer spending could impact the overall economic outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin analyze the impact from tariffs on July's CPI data and provide their outlook for inflation, the fed funds rate, and the overall economy. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin share their insight into Q2 GDP and the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. [NFM-22911AO]
Investment in construction has been sluggish over the past year - mostly from elevated interest rates, higher costs, and economic uncertainty. How has this downward trend impacted the overall economy. How could things turn around in the next year, especially now that the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) has been signed into law? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their insight into recent economic trends in the construction industry. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers analyze June's CPI and PPI data for tariff-related impacts, how input prices could be affected, and how higher inflation could impact the FOMC's decision to lower the fed funds rate. [NFM-22911AO]
How have the economy and financial markets performed in the first six months? How have the policy changes from D.C. impacted consumers and businesses? And what is the outlook for interest rates, equity markets, and economic growth for the rest of the year? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their perspectives and outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their insights into consumer sentiment data and how informative it is in forecasting economic growth.[NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett analyze the Fed's decision to once again hold the fed funds rate steady in June amid uncertainty from tariff negotiations and geopolitical events. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide economists Oren Klachkin and Daniel Vielhaber react to May's CPI report and discuss the impacts that tariffs could have on consumer prices. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and V.P. of Government Relations Ben Brewster discuss the hurdles for the tax bill and its potential economic impact. They also explore the evolving landscape of the new tariff rates amid recent legal challenges. [NFM-22911AO]
How could lower consumer sentiment impact the travel industry this summer? And how much impact does travel spending have on the overall economy? Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber provide our outlook on the 2025 summer travel season. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber analyze April's CPI data and share their outlook for potential tariff impacts on inflation. What did we learn from last month's data? Are we seeing any impacts from the recent changes in trade policy? And are we getting any closer to the Fed's two percent inflation objective? [NFM-22911AO]
The FOMC held interest rates steady in May, keeping the benchmark range at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Investment Leader Brad Beman discuss the fed funds rate and the growing risks of higher inflation and rising unemployment due to the changes in tariff policy. [NFM-22911AO]
The rapidly changing landscape of President Trump's second term has been marked by a flurry of executive actions and significant policy shifts. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s Vice President of Government Relations Ben Brewster discuss the sweeping changes and global impact of Trump's economic strategies. What are the risks and benefits of Trump's tax bill and the likelihood of this bill ever getting to the president's desk? What is the potential impact of tariffs, the future of government efficiency efforts, and the political dynamics influencing his administration? [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook for the auto market, which has been impacted by high interest rates, rising prices, and tariffs.[NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin compare the recent hard and soft economic data, why they are indicating different economic trends, and how this could impact the FOMC's decision to lower interest rates. [NFM-22911AO]
In April, the U.S. announced aggressive tariffs on its trading partners around the world. A week later, the president announced a 90-day pause in the reciprocal tariffs. With ongoing negotiations, retaliatory tariffs, and great uncertainty, investors have been on a wild roller coaster ride. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett discuss the tariff impacts on the economy and the markets. [NFM-23971M7]
Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber share their outlook for the Ag sector - including an update on egg prices and the potential impact from tariffs. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and investment leader and Head of Fixed Income Brad Beman discuss the FOMC's updated macroeconomic forecast and share their outlook for rate cuts. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin analyze current inflation trends and the impact of tariffs and federal spending cuts. [NFM-22911AO]
Following a post-election bump in November, consumer and business sentiment have subsided in recent weeks. Nationwide's economists Ben Ayers and Oren Klachkin explore these trends and what they could mean for the economic outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
Housing affordability remains a key concern in 2025 with mortgage rates rising again. And the low supply of homes on the market continues to drive up prices for buyers. What can be done to help home builders boost construction this year? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on the housing market, including updates on home construction and mortgage rates. [NFM-22911AO]
January's CPI data continued the upward trend for inflation. What's driving this trend and how could tariffs and other economic factors further impact inflation? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives and outlook, including how the Fed may respond to higher inflation. [NFM-22911AO]
The FOMC announced a pause in rate cuts in January. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief Market Strategist Mark Hackett provide their reaction and explore how China’s recent advancements in AI and President Trump’s ambitious public-private partnership could impact the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]
From tariffs and immigration…to government efficiency and budget outlook, how could President Trump's new policies shape the U.S. economy. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and VP of Government Relations Ben Brewster discuss Trump's first week back in the White House, what to expect in the coming months, and the potential impacts on businesses, consumers, and investors. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their 2025 outlook for the economy and financial markets, including forecasts on consumer spending, employment, inflation, and rate cuts. They also share their predictions for the NFL championship game and the top grossing movies for the year. [NFM-22911AO]
Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin discuss the FOMC's December rate cut and the possibility for further cuts in 2025. [NFM-22911AO]View the Nationwide Market Insights report (Note: This report will be updated for Q1 2025 in early January.) https://www.nationwide.com/financial-professionals/topics/market-insights/
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of November's CPI report and how it could impact the FOMC's decision to cut interest rates. They also explore which economic segments have seen prices come down from their pandemic-related peaks. [NFM-22911AO]
Job growth has struggled recently with weaker data and downward revisions in October. What's driving this downward trend? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their insights on recent trends in employment data. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Portfolio Manager and Head of Emerging Markets Rebecca Wilder provide their outlook on China's struggling economy and how geopolitical tensions could impact oil prices and the U.S. economy. [NFM-23971M6]
How may inflation impact holiday shopping this year. And how could this impact economic growth? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on consumer spending ahead of the holiday shopping season. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers shares his analysis of October's CPI report and how the uptick in inflation could impact our outlook for additional rate cuts. [NFM-22911AO]
The Federal Reserve held their November meeting to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic shares her insights on what led to their decision to lower rates and if more cuts are on the way. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber analyze the Q3 GDP report and provide their outlook for interest rate cuts and continued economic growth for Q4 and into 2025. From the mailbag: How could the adoption of AI impact economic growth in the years ahead? [NFM-22911AO]
Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, and Kevin Jestice, President, Nationwide Funds, discuss the concerns many investors have ahead of the national election and how financial professionals can be a reliable source for consultative support during all turbulent times. Read more from Kevin Jestice about the role of financial advisors ahead of the election. https://www.nationwide.com/financial-professionals/blog/research-learning/articles/as-election-day-nears-help-clients-keep-perspective-on-the-long-termWhite Paper | Investing in a highly politicized climate:https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/MFM-3346AO.pdf?utm_source=NWNewsroom&utm_medium=Newsroom&utm_campaign=NWNewsroom&_ga=2.133445512.781363793.1729523757-1850101536.1675127438&_gl=1r7vd5j_gcl_auOTgzODkyMzkwLjE3MjU5MDIxMDI._gaMTg1MDEwMTUzNi4xNjc1MTI3NDM4_ga_GLJSQEPWL4*MTcyOTcxMTk2MC41NjkuMS4xNzI5NzEyMDc1LjM1LjAuMA..[NFM-23971M5]
The Monthly Review for October is now available. Hear more analysis from its contributors Ben Ayers, Oren Klachkin, and Daniel Vielhaber. Click here to view the Monthly Review:https://cm-email-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/ContactMonkey-User-I7uWDFlGQ9lOmRjnBdsVshi4XED6MkZS5MksodukZ1ovf8FSqAgI18u55aYIpKnDmWCld6jKitIATavftoClmktnJlI35SXiabnvE55ypnltT1TWwN1EQOJsjz0L2ugu/NWEcon%20Monthly%20Review%20October%202024%20NFM-11356AO.3.pdf[NFM-22911AO]
Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin look closely at recent employment and inflation data and how they impact our outlook on rate cuts. What are the potential economic impacts from recent weather-related events, labor strikes, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East. From the mailbag: Kathy explains why occasional revisions are made to the monthly jobs report. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Technology Officer Jim Fowler and Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic discuss recent breakthroughs and economic trends related to AI and the impact this is having on business strategy. [NFM-22911AO]
The Monthly Review for September is now available. Hear perspectives and analysis from its contributors Ben Ayers, Oren Klachkin, and Daniel Vielhaber. Click here to view the Monthly Review: https://cm-email-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/ContactMonkey-User-I7uWDFlGQ9lOmRjnBdsVshi4XED6MkZS5MksodukZ1ovf8FSqAgI18u55aYIpKnDmWCld6jKitIATavftoClmktnJlI35SXiabnvE55ypnltT1TWwN1EQOJsjz0L2ugu/NWEcon%20Monthly%20Review%20September%202024%20NFM-11356AO.3%20v2.pdf [NFM-22911AO]
In its September meeting, the FOMC announced a cut in the fed funds rate of 50 bps - its first cut in over four years. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Head of Enterprise Portfolio Management Leo Svoboda analyze the Fed's announcement and provide our expectations for future rate cuts. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the slowing trend in inflation and how this might impact the Fed's decision to lower rates. What areas are still seeing higher inflation? And is there any chance that some prices may decrease? If so, which sectors could see lower prices? [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the health of the labor market. How long could job growth continue to slow down? What does this indicate about the current state of our economy? And how might this impact the Fed's decision to lower rates? From the mailbag: What impact has immigration had on the labor market? [NFM-22911AO]
How could lower interest rates impact home sales? When could it become more affordable to buy a house again? Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their outlook on the housing market, when mortgage rates could decrease, and the multiple factors impacting the inventory of new and existing homes. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide an update on the current strength of the consumer, the impact of back-to-school spending, and the outlook for economic growth. [NFM-22911AO]
The Monthly Review for August is now available. Hear perspectives and analysis from its contributors - Nationwide economists Ben Ayers, Oren Klachkin, and Daniel Vielhaber. [NFM-22911AO]Click here to view the Monthly Review:https://cm-email-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/ContactMonkey-User-I7uWDFlGQ9lOmRjnBdsVshi4XED6MkZS5MksodukZ1ovf8FSqAgI18u55aYIpKnDmWCld6jKitIATavftoClmktnJlI35SXiabnvE55ypnltT1TWwN1EQOJsjz0L2ugu/NWEcon%20Monthly%20Review%20August%202024%20NFM-11356AO.3.pdf
After many months of robust job gains, the labor market now looks to be losing steam. Small cracks in the labor market are widening, and the forward-looking data are not encouraging. Could this be the start of a recession? Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin, and Portfolio Manager Corsan Maley discuss the disappointing labor report and its impact on the markets. [NFM-23971M4]
The Fed kept rates steady again at their July meeting, but signaled it's getting ready to loosen monetary policy. Policymakers now see the economy as being in a better place, with inflation on a more encouraging path and activity gradually cooling. Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin discuss how monetary policy may change in the second half of 2024 and into 2025. [NFM-22911AO]
How have the economy and financial markets performed in the first six months? Is inflation getting closer to the Fed's two percent goal? And what is the outlook for interest rate cuts and economic growth for the remaining months? Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their perspectives and outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
Inflation has settled into a markedly cooler trend in recent months. This has fueled speculation that the Fed could cut rates soon, especially with the labor market showing some early cracks. But is inflation truly on a sustainable path to a 2.0% trend? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the latest inflation data and their outlook on fed funds rate cuts. [NFM-22911AO]
In an economic roundtable discussion, Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett and Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager Chris Graham share their mid-year update on the economy and financial markets, highlighting the headwinds and tailwinds that are impacting consumers and businesses the most. [NFM-23971M3]
Small business owners are at the heart of the U.S. economy. And many owners are juggling the stresses of running a successful business and planning for their future. In a recent Nationwide Retirement Institute® survey, we gained insights on business owners’ personal views on the economy, their business, and their retirement. Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic and President of Nationwide Corporate Solutions, JJ Perez, discuss the current economic pressures felt by business owners and how financial professionals can be a valuable business partner. [NFM-23971M2]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s Head of Fixed Income Brad Beman discuss what a soft landing could mean for the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]
Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin share their outlook on employment and discuss the sectors and locations where firms are still growing their workforce. [NFM-22911AO]
The economy continues to show strength, especially in terms of job growth and consumer spending. How does this align with recent corporate earnings reports?Has inflation or productivity improvements from AI technology had any impact on corporate performance? Nationwide's Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin share their insights on GDP and recent corporate earnings reports. [NFM-23971M1]
How could rising inflation and credit card debt impact the travel industry this summer? And how much impact does travel have on the overall economy? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on the summer travel season. [NFM-22911AO]
Consumer prices posted another solid increase in April as inflation remains stubborn. The cost of services remains the biggest concern, with rental inflation still not cooling as quickly as projected. How big of a factor will rents be over the coming year? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss the latest inflation outlook. [NFM-22911AO]
The 2024 hurricane forecast calls for 23 named storms – including 11 hurricanes. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s President of Standard Commercial and Excess & Surplus Lines Russ Johnston discuss the economic impact of storms and how business owners can prepare for hurricanes. What is the economic impact from weather and climate disasters? What can business owners do to protect property and reduce business loss? [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss the Fed's decision to keep rates steady in May. Policymakers are still keen to lower interest rates, but the timing and extent of policy easing are somewhat unclear as economic activity remains buoyant and inflation isn’t falling as fast as they hoped. When do we expect to see lower rates and how much easing could occur? [NFM-22911AO]
The U.S. economy lost a little momentum in the first quarter, but the underlying trends remain solid. Spending by consumers remains the most buoyant part of the growth story, fed by strong job gains and rising incomes. Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the Q1 GDP data and share their outlook for rest of 2024. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Portfolio Manager and Head of Emerging Markets Rebecca Wilder share their global economic outlook amid geopolitical tensions and a record level of elections around the world this year. [NFM-22911M9]
What’s driving the higher-than-expected inflation readings? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their analysis of March's CPI data and their outlook on Fed policy. [NFM-22911AO]
The latest edition of the quarterly NMI will launch April 10. Its author, Oren Klachkin, provides a sneak preview of the report and highlights key pages. To receive the quarterly NMI as soon as it launches, subscribe here: https://app.smartsheet.com/b/form/6038d7fb3c104d7fb6cdc4d2bebb10eb
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the state of the consumer and how strong spending could impact our recession outlook. What factors are strengthening the consumer? Are consumers overextending themselves? What is our outlook for consumer spending for the rest of 2024? [NFM - 22911AO]
With inflation still running hot and consumers still strong, the FOMC held the fed funds rate steady at their March meeting. They also released their new macro and interest rate forecasts. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Nationwide’s head of fixed income Brad Beman analyze the FOMC’s announcement and provide their outlook for the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]
Consumer inflation has been hotter than the Federal Reserve has hoped for - amid resilient spending by consumers and hiring by businesses. Much of the focus has been on the rising costs for services, but higher rents have played a large role, too. What’s driving these trends and what does this mean for potential Fed rate cuts this year? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss inflation trends and provide their analysis of February's hotter-than-expected CPI report. [NFM-22911AO]
Congress struck a deal in March to avert a government shutdown. What did this agreement tell us about the current spending priorities of congress? And how could this impact the economy going forward? With the general election ahead, what are primary voters telling us so far? And how do the financial markets typically behave during elections? Ben Brewster, Nationwide's Vice President of Government Relations, and Oren Klachkin, Financial Market Economist, provide an update on recent political events and the potential economic impact. [NFM-22911AO]
After a very long tightening cycle, the FOMC is poised to lower the fed funds rate this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett share their outlook for when rates could go down and how this could impact investment strategies.[NFM-22911M8]
What’s the current state of the housing market? When could the limited supply of existing homes improve? How has this limited supply impacted the new home market? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber share their outlook for the housing market. [NFM - 22911AO]
Month-over-month inflation unexpectedly rose in January. What's driving this increase? How could this impact the Fed's decision to lower rates? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Markets Economist Oren Klachkin unpack January's CPI report and provide their outlook for the months ahead. [NFM - 22911AO]
The economy added 353,000 new jobs in January — much higher than expected. With many economists forecasting a recession this year, how much longer can the job market stay this resilient? Or are the odds of a soft landing starting to increase? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the surprising strength of the job market. [NFM-22911AO]
The Fed held rates steady at its January meeting but laid some groundwork towards pulling back its restrictive policy stance later this year. When do we expect to see lower rates? How much could they fall? Nationwide's financial market economist Oren Klachkin and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of January's FOMC meeting and discuss their outlook for monetary policy. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's senior economist Ben Ayers and economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their analysis to the stronger-than-expected Q4 GDP report. How far will this momentum carry into 2024 and what are the current odds of a recession this year? [NFM-22911AO]
CPI surprised to the upside in December and core inflation continues to come in at a solid clip due to rising services costs. This creates a quandary for the Fed as it looks to lower interest rates at some point this year. How long until we see consumer inflation return to pre-pandemic trends? Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the December CPI report and our outlook for inflation this year. [NFM - 22911AO]
Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss December's jobs data and the outlook for hiring this year. What sectors or regions are experiencing the most growth? How could the most recent jobs report impact the Fed's decision to lower rates? [NFM-22911AO]
What could the economy look like in 2024, especially with a potential recession looming? How could the labor market and consumer spending be impacted? What's the likelihood that the Fed could lower interest rates this year? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic, Senior Economist Ben Ayers, and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their 2024 outlook for the economy and financial markets. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Head of Enterprise Portfolio Management Leo Svoboda react to the FOMC's recent announcement and press conference from their December meeting. Kathy and Leo provide their outlook for interest rates and Treasury yields in 2024. [NFM - 22911AO]
It was a newsworthy year for the auto market with widespread strikes disrupting new car production and loan rates rising to highest levels in more than 20 years. As we look ahead to 2024, how will a potential recession impact demand for autos and what could that mean for prices for buyers? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the current and future outlook for the auto market. [NFM - 22911AO]
How are companies like Nationwide using AI today? How could AI further improve productivity? Nationwide's Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Jim Fowler and Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic discuss the growth of AI and its potential impact on the economy. [NFM-22911M7]Follow Jim and Kathy for updates on this and other related topics. Jim Fowler: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesrfowler/Kathy Bostjancic: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathy-bostjancic-325a9453/
Inflation is easing and consumers continue to spend. But this may not lead to a soft landing as some pundits are calling for. Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their thoughts on recent inflation and consumer data as we near the biggest shopping day of the year. [NFM - 22911AO]
What are the domestic and global conflicts we should be watching right now - and how could they impact the U.S. economy? Ben Brewster, Nationwide’s Vice President of Government Relations, and Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, share their insight and perspectives on recent domestic and geopolitical events. [NFM-22911M6]
Rates were kept steady at November's FOMC meeting, but Chair Powell made it clear that further tightening is still on the table for future meetings. What factors could swing the Fed to raise rates again and what expectations do we have for Fed policy in 2024? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their insight and analysis. [NFM-22911AO]
Real GDP growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter as consumers spent broadly and the economy continued to defy expectations. How long can consumers keep this up? How does the strong GDP report alter our outlook for a recession in 2024? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin discuss third-quarter growth and our outlook for the months ahead. [NFM - 22911AO]
In part two of this two-part podcast, Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the current economic backdrop and examine the likelihood that we’ll see a soft landing over the next year. [NFM - 22911AO]
In part one of this two-part podcast, Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss soft landings and how they are different than recessions. What could happen after a soft landing? How could the financial markets react? [NFM - 22911AO]
The amount of job gains in September was more than double the consensus forecast, which is too hot for the financial market's liking. However, wage growth continues to moderate, which hints at a silver lining. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Financial Market Economist Oren Klachkin provide their analysis of the labor market and how it could impact the overall economic outlook. [NFM - 22911AO]
The rise in mortgage rates have had a predictable effect on home sales – which have been plummeting since the beginning of 2022. What else could be straining the housing market? When should we expect for things to turn around? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber discuss the factors affecting the housing market and when conditions may improve. [NFM-22911AO]
The FOMC held rates steady at its September meeting but kept a tightening bias for the remainder of the year. The Fed also signaled that monetary policy could remain restrictive well into 2024 and maybe even into 2025. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the Fed's economic outlook and the possibility of a soft landing. [NFM - 22911AO]
Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of August's CPI data and discuss when the Fed may finally get inflation under control. [NFM - 22911AO]
Congress returns to Capitol Hill this month from summer recess. What do they hope to accomplish before the end of the year? What impact could the 2024 election have? What support could Congress provide in response to recent national disasters and a potential economic downturn? Nationwide's Senior Economist, Ben Ayers, and Senior Director of Governmental Relations, Carson Lewis, share their outlook on governmental action and the potential economic impact. [NFM-22911AO]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was the keynote speaker at this year's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His speech included remarks on inflation, interest rates, and the overall economy. What did we learn from his comments and how could it change our economic outlook? How did the markets react to his comments? Did Powell provide any hints about additional rate hikes? Hear a recap of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Chief of Investment Research, and Ben Ayers, Senior Economist. [NFM-22911M5]
With a tight labor market and wages on the rise, the current expansion rolls on. Are certain states performing better than others? If so, what's driving some states to have more employment opportunities than others? And how well could those states perform if a recession starts? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide insight and analysis of regional employment trends in the U.S. [NFM - 22911AO]
How are back-to-school costs shaping up this year and how does this fit within the broader spending narrative for consumers? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook for back-to-school spending and the overall state of the consumer. [NFM - 22911AO]
How does July's CPI report impact our outlook for inflation? What are the markets saying about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target? What is the likelihood of an economic soft landing? Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, and Scott Murray, Financial Market Consultant, provide their perspective and outlook of inflation and the potential for a soft landing. [NFM-22911AO]
After skipping a rate hike at the June policy meeting, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps yesterday to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This marked the 11th time since March 2022 that the Fed raised interest rates. Could more rate hikes be on the way? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide’s head of Fixed Income, Brad Beman, provide analysis and insight on July's FOMC announcement. [NFM - 22911M4]
The housing market has shown some signs of life in 2023 despite still high mortgage rates. Home construction has bounced back too, although concerns for a likely recession exist. What’s the current state of residential home building and what trends are we watching over the rest of the year and into 2024? Also, what are we expecting for commercial construction? Nationwide's Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their analysis and outlook for the construction industry.
The consumer price index cooled further in June as food and energy prices have eased in recent months. But strong housing and services inflation continues to drive a hot pace of core inflation – a key focus area for the Fed. Are there any signs that core inflation will decline over the second half of 2023? And what is our updated outlook for the Fed based upon expected inflation trends? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their perspective on inflation. [NFM-22911AO]
As we enter the second half of 2023, how has the economy performed so far? What's our outlook for the rest of the year? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their perspectives. What has been the biggest surprise? What key events are they watching for in the months ahead? [NFM - 22911AO]
Rebecca Wilder (Senior Investment Professional and head of Emerging Markets, Nationwide Financial) and Scott Murray (Financial Markets Consultant) share their assessment of China's economy and its ripple effects on the rest of the world. [NFM-22911M3]
The Fed announced no change in interest rates during their June meeting. This breaks the streak of 10 straight meetings in which the central bank raised interest rates in order to slow down inflation. However, the FOMC strongly signaled more rate hikes are possible this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Chief of Investment Research Mark Hackett provide their reaction and analysis.
For additional perspective, join Kathy and Mark - along with John Carter, President of Nationwide Financial - for a LinkedIn Live conversation on the economy and financial markets. https://www.linkedin.com/video/event/urn:li:ugcPost:7071825670363885568/
A recent Nationwide Retirement Institute® survey revealed business owners’ top financial goals, priorities, and concerns ahead of a potential recession. We found that many are bracing for a recession and are being impacted by economic pressures such as inflation and rising interest rates. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and President of Nationwide Corporate Solutions JJ Perez provide their outlook on the economy and how business owners are feeling. [NFM - 22911M1]
The labor market is showing little evidence of slowing despite the Fed’s effort to decrease demand through higher interest rates. Next week’s FOMC meeting will be watched closely as the committee debates raising the fed funds rates again. Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their analysis of the latest employment report and what the Fed may announce at their upcoming meeting. Will they raise rates again or decide to pause for now? What other economic indicators are worth watching right now? And how has the pandemic impacted the business cycle?
Consumers are spending broadly on services this year - which is good news for the travel industry. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on consumer spending, especially in terms of travel and services.
CPI was hotter again in April with higher gasoline prices and services costs. This comes on the heels of a stronger-than-expected jobs report for April which showed yet another jump in wages for workers. Nationwide economists Ben Ayers and Daniel Vielhaber discuss how the tight labor market continues to push up inflation despite the Fed’s sharp rate tightening.
May 3, 2023: The FOMC announced a 25 basis point increase in the fed funds rate in its continued effort to slow down inflation. How effective has this tightening cycle been on controlling inflation? In what ways has the overall economy been impacted? When could the Fed decide to lower rates again? Nationwide's Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of today's FOMC announcement and how it could impact the overall economy.
Despite a strong start to the year for hiring and consumer spending, the economy was less resilient in the first quarter than expected. What's in store for the economy in the second quarter? Do we still expect a recession to hit later this year? Nationwide's Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on economic growth.
The bond market is again at odds with the Federal Reserve’s forecast for interest rates, placing nearly 50% odds of a rate cut at the September policy meeting as investors believe the Fed will be cutting rates as the economy falls into recession. However, the equity market continues be quite resilient in the face of rising recession headwinds. Nationwide’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy and its impact on financial markets.
The consumer price index showed further signs of cooling in March, led by declining prices in grocery stores and at the gas pump. But it was not all good news as services inflation remains high and could keep some cost increases elevated for consumers into 2024. Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers shares his analysis of the March CPI report. Ben also explains supercore inflation and its impact on Fed policy. [NFM-22911AO]
Nationwide Market Insights (NMI)for Q2 is now available, featuring commentary and insight into the economy and financial markets. NMI's author, Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, highlights key pages and provides additional perspective. To view or download the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics. [NFM-22911AO]
The banking industry has experienced several challenges recently, causing ripple effects in the financial markets and the overall economy. What contributed to the recent challenges in the banking industry? What are the short-term and long-term impacts? Nationwide’s Scott Murray and Artur Piper provide their analysis of these recent challenges and the potential economic and financial market impacts. [NFM - 20130AO.74]
At the outset of March's FOMC meeting, there was a lot of speculation that the Fed would pause their rate increases, especially with the current banking crisis happening both domestically and globally. However, at the conclusion of the meeting, Chairman Powell announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates - the ninth consecutive increase of this tightening cycle. How are the markets reacting to this news? What impact are these rate increases having on inflation and the overall economy? And what is our outlook for a potential recession? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their analysis of the FOMC's announcement and their outlook on potential economic and financial market impacts. [NFM-20130AO.73]
Inflation remains the hot topic as price pressures for consumers remain sticky in many categories - especially food prices. What did we learn from today's CPI report? Did February continue January's hotter trend for inflation? How could the Fed react to the latest inflation data? Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on inflation with a focus on rising food prices. [NFM-20130AO.72]
With high service costs keeping inflation elevated, the exceptionally tight labor market will be a key swing factor for the Fed this year. Demand for workers continues to run at a fever pitch despite much higher borrowing costs for businesses and rising concerns for a recession. Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist, Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the path forward for the labor market and its potential impact on economy. [NFM - 20130AO.71]
Is the economy heading for a soft landing, a hard landing, or no landing at all? How could the financial markets be impacted under the different landing scenarios and what are they telling us now? Nationwide’s Chief Economist, Kathy Bostjancic, and Nationwide's head of fixed income, Brad Beman, provide their outlook on the different landing scenarios and the potential market impact. [NFM-20130AO.70]
Last year the housing market was pummeled by the sharp rise in mortgage rates. Demand conditions still look quite dour in 2023, especially with loan rates projected to remain higher for some time. Can we expect housing activity to bottom out soon? What could that mean for home values? Nationwide’s Senior Economist Ben Ayers and Economist Daniel Vielhaber provide their outlook on the housing sector, sharing their analysis of market conditions as we head into the spring selling season. [NFM - 20130AO.69]
With the Q4 earnings season largely completed, earnings growth looks to be down around 5% y/y - the first decline on a year-on-year basis since Q3 2020. (FactSet) Is this a harbinger of further earnings declines ahead? What does this mean for the equity market? The slowing in inflation has moderated. What does that indicate about pricing power within different sectors? And how will the Fed react? [NFM-20130AO.68]
With new leadership in the House and a narrowly divided Senate, what will the key priorities be for the 118th Congress? How much legislation should we expect from a divided government? What could the economic impact be from any actions we see from Washington? [NFM - 20130AO.67]
The market for workers remains very tight and is supporting economic growth - while concerns for a potential recession continue to build. Wages for employees are rising, which is great news for households, but makes it more challenging for the Fed to lower inflation. This week the Fed raised rates again for the eighth time in a row. How much impact are these rate hikes having on the labor market - and what's our outlook for future rate hikes? [NFM - 20130AO.66]
What does the GDP report for Q4 2022 tell us about the state of our economy as the year came to an end? What impact has the Fed's rate hikes had on GDP? How does this report impact our outlook of the economy and financial markets, and the potential for a recession? [NFM - 20130AO.65]
High prices and concerns about a recession are weighing on the minds of many consumers. How has this impacted consumer spending? What is our outlook for consumer activity? [NFM - 20130AO.64]
Following a string of weaker CPI prints, inflation appears to have crested in the second half of 2022. Easing commodity prices and healing supply chains have cooled prices, even with services costs still accelerating. But inflation remains very high heading into 2023, likely driving further rate hikes by the Fed in coming months. Nationwide economists Kathy Bostjancic and Ben Ayers provide their reactions to the latest CPI report for December 2022.
Nationwide Market Insights (NMI)for Q1 2023 is now available, featuring commentary and insight into the economy and financial markets. NMI's author, Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, highlights key pages and provides additional perspective. To view or download the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics. [NFM 20130AO.62]
As we close out the year, it's time to look forward and provide our economic outlook for 2023. What could inflation look like next year? How much higher could the Fed raise rates? And how close are we to a recession? [NFM-20130AO.61]
In their final meeting of the year, the FOMC remains focused on controlling inflation and announced yet another rate increase. But this time, the rate increase was only half a point. What does this tell us about the state of inflation and the economy? Are the rate increases starting to have the impact that the Fed was hoping for? Will we see rates continue to increase next year, and if so - how much higher? [NFM-20130AO.60]
November’s jobs report showed surprisingly strong hiring and faster growth in average hourly earnings — suggesting little easing of labor market conditions. What does this tell us about the overall economy? How could this affect the Fed's decision to continue with their aggressive rate hikes? Nationwide's economists Bryan Jordan and Ben Ayers discuss the recent jobs report and what it tells us about the direction of our economy. [NFM-20130AO.59]
This year's economic environment has challenged many businesses — with rising costs, a tight labor market, and worries of a pending recession. Nationwide’s Senior Economist, Ben Ayers, shares recent trends for the business sector and its impact the broader economy. [NFM-20130AO.58]
Retail sales rose by 1.3 percent in October — its largest increase in eight months. What does this mean for the all-important holiday shopping in the weeks ahead? Will inflation keep shoppers away? Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist, shares his outlook on the holiday shopping season. [NFM-20130AO.57]
The U.S. economy has certainly seen turbulent times in 2022. And agricultural markets have not been immune to this, disrupted by geopolitics, weather events, and sharply rising costs for farmers throughout the year. In this episode, we look at events that impacted agricultural commodity prices with an outlook for 2023. [NFM-20130AO.56]
With inflation still high, the Fed just announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the sixth rate increase this year. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on the Fed's announcement and share their outlook on future rate increases.
How have these rate increases impacted the economy and financial markets? How close are we to a recession? With the FOMC meeting again next month, is there an appetite for another rate increase this year?
[NFM-20130AO.55]
Real GDP growth bounced back in the third quarter, increasing at an annualized rate of 2.6%. While still not strong, the renewed expansion for the economy is a further sign that a recession is not quite imminent.
What trends do we see for consumers and businesses? What is the likelihood of a recession? If a recession does occur, when could it start and how bad could it be?
[NFM-20130AO.54]
In addition to the many cyclical crosscurrents, the economy has also been hampered in recent years by several structural trends. Weakness in labor force and productivity growth have weighed on the underlying GDP trend and represent ongoing risk factors for the years ahead. Part two of our two-part series on the risks that weigh on economic growth focuses on productivity. [NFM-20130AO.53]
In addition to the many cyclical crosscurrents, the economy has also been hampered in recent years by several structural trends. Weakness in labor force and productivity growth have weighed on the underlying GDP trend and represent ongoing risk factors for the years ahead. Part one of our two-part series on the risks that weigh on economic growth focuses on the labor force. [NFM-20130AO.52]
Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. View the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast. https://nationwidefinancial.com/economics
The North American International Auto Show just wrapped up its first assembly since 2019. This is a good time to share our outlook on the auto market, featuring insight from Ben Ayers - Senior Economist at Nationwide. Is auto production improving? How could a boost in supply impact new and used car prices? With the increase of electric vehicles and ride sharing, what shifts could we see in how consumers use their vehicles? [NFM-20130AO.50]
The FOMC held its September meeting this week, announcing another 75 basis point rate increase. () What impact could this rate hike have on inflation and economic growth? () Are more aggressive hikes on the horizon? (*) Based on the Fed's recent actions, is the likelihood of a recession growing stronger? Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers reflect on the Fed's announcement and provide their perspectives on the economy. [NFM-20130AO.49]
August's CPI was higher than expected, putting further strain on the economy and alarming investors. In this episode, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan shares his perspective on the current state of inflation. * Have we recovered from the supply-chain issues related to the pandemic? * What else is driving inflation? * What does the rising value of the dollar tell us?
Rising interest rates, record high home prices, and a slowing economy have caused the housing market to cool following a boom in home sales.
What impact has inflation had on housing? Are home prices overvalued? If a recession occurs, how could the value of homes be impacted?
Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers look closely at recent data and share their outlook on the housing market. [NFM-20130AO.47]
In this second part of Recession 101, we discuss the current economic backdrop and examine the likelihood that we are now or will soon be in a recession. () What causes recessions? () What do recent economic indicators imply about a current or pending recession? () How will we know if we are in a recession? () If a recession does occur, how deep or how long could the next downturn be? NFM-20130AO.46
Rising inflation, aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, and back-to-back quarterly declines in real gross domestic product have given rise to fears that the U.S. economy could soon enter into its first recession since the outset of the pandemic in 2020.
() What is a recession and how do we know if we're in one? () How often do recessions occur and how long can they last? () How are jobs and prices generally impacted by a recession? () How have financial markets performed during past recessions?
NFM-20130AO.45
This month's employment report provided some very strong numbers, which casts more doubt on recessionary concerns today. But how long can this continue? Could the slowing economy have an impact on future job gains? How could a strong job market accelerate the Fed's plans to tighten monetary policy? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the tight labor market and how it reflects on the overall health of the economy. [NFM-20130AO.44]
In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the second time in as many months. How much higher could the Fed raise rates? How could this help to slow down inflation? How could the markets react to this increase? And could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on the Fed's announcement and share their outlook on future rate increases.
Weather events continue to capture the headlines, as Europe and southern states in the U.S. are suffering an unprecedented heat wave this month. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center recently estimated that there is a 66 percent chance that La Nina conditions will prevail in the Northern hemisphere until at least the end of 2022, which would mark the third straight year of this weather pattern. Nationwide economist Scott Murray shares more about these major weather events and their economic impact.
As we enter the second half of the year, several economic indicators are disappointing. And we're likely to see a second consecutive quarter with a decline in GDP. Are we in a recession now…or are we likely to go into one in the near term? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at other economic indicators and provide their perspectives on the current health of our overall economy.
Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. [NFM-20130AO.40]
To view the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics
Economic growth in 2022 has been weaker than expected, mostly from lingering supply shocks and inflation, as well as the negative impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a significant slowdown in the world economy. Could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson, Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan, and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their mid-year perspectives the economy and financial markets. [NFM-20130AO.39]
In the June FOMC meeting, the Fed announced an increase of interest rates by three quarters of a percent, the largest increase in nearly 30 years. How much higher could the Fed raise rates? How could this help to slow down inflation? Could a recession be on the horizon? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their perspectives on the Fed's announcement and share their outlook on future rate increases.[NFM-20130AO.38]
The employment report for May showed how tight the labor market remains. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at current employment conditions and how they're impacting inflation and the overall economy — and whether or not a wage-price spiral has begun. [NFM-20130AO.37]
The stock market has been under pressure throughout 2022, with the benchmark S&P 500 index recently flirting with its first bear market in two years. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers discuss the stock market and its connection to the broader economy. Does a bear market indicate a recession? How do stock prices tend to behave in recessions? [NFM-20130AO.36]
This week's data on consumer spending and industrial production sheds light on the health of our economy, which is still being impacted by the pandemic and geopolitical shocks. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan take a closer look at recent data, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. How has inflation impacted overall sentiment? Does the consumer still have the wherewithal to spend? And what's the outlook for the months ahead? [NFM-13126AO.34]
The recent CPI report shows that inflation is still at record levels, but at a slightly lower level than the previous month's report. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the CPI report. What sectors are being impacted the most? Where do we see some relief? How is this cycle different than previous inflations? And what's the outlook for the months ahead? [NFM-13126AO.33]
April's Employment Report revealed the continued strength of the job market, which is still recovering from the record job losses resulting from the pandemic. How long can this trend continue and what does this say about the overall economy? And what does this mean for the Fed, which again raised rates this week with the hopes to slow down inflation. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the employment report and discuss potential impact of the Fed's recent actions. [NFM-20130AO.33]
The first-quarter GDP report provided a disappointing reflection of the economy, but this slowdown should prove to be temporary. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their perspectives on the GDP report. How does it change our outlook on the overall economy? Is a recession on the horizon, or could we see a bounce-back later this year? [NFM-20130AO.32]
The Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, with the expectation to raise rates again at their next meeting in May. How high could they go? And long-term rates have moved up significantly as well. How high could they go? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on interest rates for the months and years ahead and the impacts it could have, both positive and negative. [NFM-20130AO.31]
CPI data came out this week and showed that inflation is the highest in 40 years. What's causing prices to increase? What sectors are impacted the most? When could the current rise in inflation start to peak? Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers dig into the recent CPI report, as well as other inflation measures, and provide their outlook on when things could improve. [NFM-20130AO.30]
In March, the FOMC raised rates for the first time in over three years. They released their minutes from that meeting this week which sheds additional light on the potential for further tightening this year. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan share their outlook on further tightening, how it will impact inflation and the overall economy, and whether or not the Fed can achieve a soft landing. [NFM-20130AO.29]
Go beyond the pages of the quarterly Nationwide Market Insights (NMI) with Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist. In this podcast, Bryan provides additional perspective and commentary regarding key pages. To view the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics
With Omicron cases diminishing in the U.S., the service industry stands to make strong gains in 2022. This is welcome news to the economy, which has been hit by the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and high inflation. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on the economy in this post-Omicron phase and what sectors will benefit the most. [NFM-20130AO.27]
The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over three years, with the focus on slowing down inflation. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provide their perspectives on the Fed’s actions….can it slow down inflation…how could it impact economic growth…and what’s the outlook for additional tightening ahead...and could it lead to a recession? [NFM-20130AO.26]
Inflation continues to weigh on the economy, which just started to recover from broken supply chains, but is now being hit by the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their analysis of the recent CPI report, what's driving inflation up, and when conditions may improve. [NFM-20130AO.25]
February's employment report provides very strong numbers across all sectors. This positive news runs in sharp contrast to major geopolitical events that are pushing inflation higher and could put a strain on the overall economy. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a close look at the improving labor market and their outlook for the economy and the financial markets for the months ahead. [NFM - 20130AO.24]
Rising inflation and growth concerns (and perhaps the dreaded term stagflation) due to the lingering pandemic, and the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine have impacted equity markets and consumer confidence/sentiment. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan focus on the recent volatility in the financial markets. They also provide their outlook on the overall economy for the months ahead, including their perspectives on how the Fed may adjust their plans for policy tightening this year.
Despite the Omicron surge and rising mortgage rates, demand for housing remained very strong for January, as seen by solid data for housing starts and existing home sales. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their outlook of the housing market and the overall economy for 2022. [NFM-20130AO.22]
Inflation continues to increase with little signs of any slowdown. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their insight on inflation, what is driving the increase, and their outlook on the months ahead - including their expectations for fed policy. [NFM-20130AO.21]
The first employment report for 2022 was released today, which sheds light on the strength of the overall economy and Omicron's impact on labor markets. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook for the months ahead, including the impact of today's employment report on inflation and Fed policy.
Nationwide’s Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan provides highlights and perspective of the Nationwide Market Insights quarterly report for the beginning of Q1 2022. To view the quarterly report while you listen to this podcast, visit nationwidefinancial.com/economics [NFM-20130AO.16]
2022 began with historically high inflation rates, resulting from lingering Covid-related supply chain disruptions and expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. The unemployment rate continues to improve, drawing closer to pre-pandemic levels, with many companies unable to fill job openings. And the Fed has hinted at a more hawkish approach this year, with expectations for tightening monetary policy. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their 2022 outlook for the economy, Fed policy and how the financial markets could be impacted. [NFM-20130AO.17]
Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan discuss the state of the consumer and the impact that retail spending and consumer activity could have on the overall economy and financial markets. [NFM-20130AO.18]
Financial markets have been volatile this week and inflation continues to be high. The FOMC held their January meeting today and provided their outlook on Fed policy. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their perspective on what the Fed may be signaling and the outlook on potential tightening for this year and beyond. [NFM-20130AO.19]