The China-Global South Podcast: Recent Episodes
The China-Global South Project
A weekly discussion on Chinese engagement in the developing world from the news team of The China-Global South Project (CGSP). Join hosts Eric Olander in Vietnam and Cobus van Staden in South Africa for insightful interviews with scholars, analysts, and journalists from around the world. You'll also get regular updates from CGSP's editors in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Forty years ago, Shenzhen was a small southern Chinese fishing village, just across the border from Hong Kong. Today, it's one of the world's most advanced megacities, with a population of nearly 20 million people and home to many of the tech industry's largest companies, including Huawei, Tencent, DJI, and Transsion, among countless others.
That remarkable transformation within a single lifetime offers important lessons for Kenya, Vietnam, and other developing countries seeking to build their own technology hubs.
Grace Yuehan Wang, a visiting scholar at the London School of Economics and a research fellow at Stellenbosch University in Cape Town, joins Eric to discuss her new book, which explores how Shenzhen was able to develop so quickly and what lessons its remarkable rise offers countries across the Global South seeking to build their own technology hubs.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
🏙️ Shenzhen's rise as a global tech hub 🇨🇳 Why Shenzhen isn't China's Silicon Valley 🏛️ The role of local government 💡 Grassroots innovation and entrepreneurship 🌍 Lessons for the Global South 🚀 Can the Shenzhen model be replicated?
Show Notes:
- Amazon: Dragon Innovation: Shenzhen: Lessons for the West and global south countries from China's leading innovation cluster by Grace Yuehan Wang
- ThinkChina: Shenzhen: The city that built China's tech empire by Chen Xiangming and Taylor Lynch Ogan
- Financial Times: China's Xi pursues AI diplomacy to woo the Global South by Joe Leahy and Eleanor Olcott
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
China and India are entering a cautious period of diplomatic re-engagement after years of confrontation, but deep strategic mistrust, unresolved border disputes, and competing security interests continue to define the relationship. Economic cooperation is gradually resuming even as political tensions remain unresolved.
At the same time, shifting global power dynamics are reshaping the balance between Asia's two largest powers.
Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University, joins Eric from New Delhi to explain how changing Chinese perceptions of India, evolving trade priorities, BRICS diplomacy, and the broader U.S.-China rivalry are creating new opportunities for engagement while reinforcing the structural challenges that make a lasting rapprochement difficult.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- 🇨🇳 Why China's view of India is changing
- 🏔️ The slow thaw after the Galwan border crisis
- 🤝 Can trade recover despite political mistrust?
- 🌏 How U.S.-China rivalry is reshaping India-China ties
- 🌐 BRICS, the Quad, and Asia's evolving strategic landscape
- 🔮 What comes next for one of the world's most consequential relationships
Show Notes:
- South China Morning Post: India and China revive Himalayan trade at high-altitude pass by Junaid Kathju
- The Diplomat: Why India Does Not Interest China by Akhilesh Pillalamarri
- East Asia Forum: China–India rapprochement is tactical, not strategic by Chietigj Bajpaee
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
As competition between the United States and China intensifies, Southeast Asia has emerged as one of the world's most important geopolitical battlegrounds. But despite growing tensions in the South China Sea and mounting pressure from Washington and Beijing, public opinion across much of the region remains more favorable toward China than many policymakers assume.
A new report from the Asia Society Policy Institute reveals how economic ties, consumer brands, and everyday interactions are reshaping perceptions of China in Southeast Asia. Kevin Zhongzhe Li, one of the report's lead authors, joins Eric from Jakarta to explain why this trend is particularly important in the region's "swing" states.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- Why China is gaining an edge over the U.S. in Southeast Asia
- How public opinion toward China has shifted over the past two decades
- The role of Chinese investment, EVs, and consumer brands in shaping perceptions
- Why South China Sea disputes affect countries differently
- The gap between elite and public views of China across the region
- Common U.S. and Chinese misconceptions about Southeast Asia
Show Notes:
- Asia Society Policy Institute: Global Public Opinion on China: China's Standing in Southeast Asia's Swing States by Kevin Zhongshe Li
- South China Morning Post: 'Practical' young Africans leaning towards China over US and away from ideology by Jevans Nyabiage
- Pew Research Center: Views of China and Xi Are Improving Globally by Laura Silver, Jonathan Schulman, Laura Clancy and William Miner
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
There's growing optimism across Africa, Latin America, and Asia that abundant reserves of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel can fuel a new era of economic development. Determined to avoid the "resource curse" that enriched foreign companies while leaving local populations behind, governments are increasingly moving to ban exports of raw ores and instead promote domestic processing and refining.
It's an appealing strategy, but far more difficult to implement than many realize.
Wei Shen and Anabel Marín, senior research fellows at the Institute of Development Studies in London, argue that processing alone won't transform resource-rich economies. In a new paper, they explain why lasting prosperity depends on building the knowledge, institutions, and technological capabilities needed to move up the value chain. They join Eric to discuss what it will really take for developing countries to turn critical mineral wealth into sustainable development.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- Why critical minerals alone won't create prosperity
- Can resource nationalism break the resource curse?
- Why processing isn't enough to move up the value chain
- The role of knowledge and state capacity in development
- What China got right in building its mineral industry
- How developing countries can capture more value from critical minerals
Show Notes:
- WATCH: Critical minerals and development: Breaking the structural impasse with Wei Shen and Anabel Marín
- Institute of Development Studies: China's role in critical mineral mining and its impacts by Wei Shen
- Institute of Development Studies: Living in a material world: What critical minerals mean for development by Wei Shen and Anabel Marín
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
There's an emerging consensus that China is among the chief beneficiaries of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While Beijing has undoubtedly welcomed Washington becoming entangled in yet another war in West Asia, and continues to reap commercial gains from booming exports of electric vehicles and other technologies, the conflict is also exposing the limits of China's geopolitical influence.
China is, first and foremost, a commercial power in the Persian Gulf. Beyond trade and investment, however, it has little diplomatic, political, or security leverage to shape the course of the conflict or influence the region's postwar order.
Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and author of the China-MENA Newsletter, joins Eric to examine why China's economic footprint in the Gulf has not translated into strategic influence.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- Is China really benefiting from the Iran war?
- Why Beijing won't replace the U.S. in the Gulf
- The limits of China's geopolitical influence
- China's commercial strategy in the Middle East
- Gulf views on balancing China and America
- What comes next for China-Gulf relations
Show Notes:
- Sign up to The China-MENA Substack Newsletter: https://chinamenanewsletter.substack.com/
- The Diplomat: After the Iran War, China's Middle East Strategy Will Prioritize the Gulf by Chenjie Song
- The Guardian: China is a clear winner from Trump's war in Middle East, report concludes by Amy Hawkins
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Two weeks ago, a PLA Navy submarine in the South China Sea test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that flew 7,300 kilometers before splashing down in the South Pacific. The launch drew sharp criticism from several Pacific Island countries, whose leaders argued that it violated the region's longstanding identity as a nuclear-free zone.
To be clear, the test did not violate international law or established norms. The United States, France, and other nuclear powers have conducted similar missile tests in the Pacific for decades.
Even so, Zhang Denghua, a senior research fellow at the Australian National University's Department of Pacific Affairs and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Pacific, argues that the launch could erode Beijing's hard-earned influence in the region. He joins Eric to discuss the strategic implications of the test, China's intensifying competition with traditional powers in the Pacific, and why Taiwan remains such a potent issue for Beijing in this part of the world.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- China's unprecedented Pacific missile test
- Why Pacific leaders condemned the launch
- Australia's new Pacific security partnerships
- China's growing rivalry with regional powers
- Papua New Guinea closes Taiwan office
- What's next at the Pacific Islands Forum
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: What To Know About China's Recent Missile Test in the South Pacific by Zhang Denghua
- The China-Global South Project: How Pacific Island Nations Are Capitalizing on Major Power Rivalry by Zhang Denghua
- The China-Global South Project: Japan is Eyeing China's Moves in the Pacific by Zhang Denghua
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
China's suspension of rare earth exports to Japan has now entered its seventh month, with shipments in June again falling to a fraction of their level a year earlier. The restrictions are one sign of a broader collapse in relations between the two countries since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office last fall.
The relationship, long marked by tension, deteriorated sharply after Takaichi said that Chinese military action against Taiwan would "threaten Japan's survival." Since then, ties have continued to worsen.
William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, joins Eric to explain the politics driving this increasingly dangerous confrontation and why its consequences will be felt across Asia.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- Why China-Japan relations are unraveling
- China's rare earth pressure on Japan
- Taiwan's role in the growing dispute
- Japan's expanding regional security strategy
- The future of the U.S.-Japan alliance
- What's next for Northeast Asia?
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
The U.S. and China clashed at the United Nations this week, with each accusing the other of fueling instability in the Persian Gulf. Washington has long argued that Beijing plays a pivotal role in the conflict as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of dual-use technologies that could support Tehran's military.
Many experts, however, dispute that assessment. They argue that China's ability to influence Iran is far more limited than commonly assumed and that there is little evidence Tehran would bow to Chinese pressure on matters of national security. Nor is there any indication that Beijing is willing to use whatever leverage it may have.
Jesse Marks, CEO of the Asia-Middle East consultancy Rihla Research & Advisory and a leading scholar of Chinese diplomacy in the region, joins Eric to explain why Beijing is likely to remain a largely passive player, both as the war continues and in whatever political settlement eventually emerges.
Show Notes:
- East Asia Forum: Iran's bid for Beijing's backing meets its limits by Jesse Marks
- Arab Gulf States Institute: China's Mediation Ceiling in the Iran War by Jesse Marks
- Gulf International Forum: Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can't Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf by Jesse Marks & Chenjie Song
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- China and the U.S. clash at the UN
- Does Beijing have leverage over Iran?
- Why China's diplomacy has limits
- Pakistan's role in Iran mediation
- The future Gulf security order
- What China wants after the war
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
The U.S. war against Iran is having a profound impact far away from the battlefield, all the way on the other side of Asia in the Western Pacific. There's an emerging consensus among Washington's allies and foes alike that the U.S. will be incapable, unwilling, or a mix of both to fight a war against China in this part of the world.
That's prompting a rapid reevaluation of security postures across the region, a shift on full display over the past week: Australia moving to bolster security ties in the South Pacific and Japan building what many see as a new security architecture for the post-American order.
Derek Grossman, CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific and a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, joins Eric to discuss the week's key events in the South China Sea, South Pacific, and Japan's latest moves to build a new intelligence agency.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode * South China Sea tribunal at 10 * China's Pacific missile test * Japan's security shift * Philippines vs. Vietnam on China * U.S. alliances under Trump * Asia's changing security landscape
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: Japan Emerges as Asia's New Strategic Anchor by Derek Grossman
- Nikkei Asia: Vietnam's new balancing act in an unbalanced world by Derek Grossman
- International Crisis Group: Manila's Push for a New Rulebook in the South China Sea Peters Out by Derek Grossman
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
With open conflict between the U.S. and Iran now underway again, it's still too early to determine which side will ultimately prevail. But one point is gaining broad agreement among analysts: China is one of the few major powers that stands to benefit from the war.
The conflict has accelerated several trends that work in Beijing's favor. It has driven greater use of the Chinese yuan in international trade, boosted exports of Chinese solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, and, perhaps most importantly, stretched U.S. military resources. Some analysts now argue that the strain has made the Pentagon's long-standing ambition of being able to fight two major wars simultaneously increasingly unrealistic.
Ahmed Aboudou, an associate fellow at Chatham House in London and head of the China section at the Emirates Policy Center in Abu Dhabi, is among the scholars who believe the war has created significant strategic opportunities for Beijing. He joins Eric to explain why Chinese policymakers may be quietly pleased with how the conflict is unfolding.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- China's strategic gains from the Iran war
- The yuan's expanding international role
- Why Chinese exports are surging
- The strain on U.S. military capacity
- Is the Pentagon's two-war strategy over?
- How Beijing views the unfolding conflict
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Kenya's landmark debt restructuring deal with China, announced last year, converted $3 billion in outstanding China Exim Bank loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan. The currency switch could save the East African country more than $200 million in debt servicing costs.
Not surprisingly, other countries in Asia and Africa are now exploring similar arrangements to reduce their debt burdens. But a new report from the development finance research lab AidData argues that Kenya's savings came mostly from the restructuring terms — not from the yuan conversion itself.
AidData's Oshin Pandey and Sailor Miao join Eric and Cobus to explain how the deal worked, why it matters, and why there is more to this arrangement than most headlines suggest.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- Kenya's landmark China debt deal
- Debt restructuring vs. yuan conversion
- Why AidData challenges the narrative
- Ethiopia's restructuring prospects
- China's evolving lending strategy
- The future of sovereign debt relief
Show Notes:
- AidData: Kenya's USD-to-RMB Debt Conversion Was Really a Restructuring by Sailor Miao and Oshin Pandey
- The China-Global South Project: Kenya's Chinese Debt Swap Comes With a Hidden Currency Risk
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
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- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Two very different narratives about China's economy emerged this week. In France, G7 leaders pushed back against what they see as China's growing dominance in key industries. In Beijing, meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry urged observers to look beyond data showing acute economic weakness.
The reality is that China's economy is so large and complex that both narratives can be true at the same time.
Ker Gibbs, a longtime China-based executive and former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explores this contradiction in his new book, The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities. Ker joins Eric from San Francisco to discuss his decades of experience working in China and what companies in Africa, Asia, and elsewhere need to understand before entering the Chinese market today.
📌 Topics Covered in This Episode
- China's competing narratives of economic strength and weakness
- Why weak consumer demand remains a major challenge
- The role of exports in sustaining China's growth model
- How Xi Jinping's policies are reshaping the economy
- What foreign companies need to know before entering the China market
- Why China's economic trajectory matters for the Global South
Show Notes:
- Amazon: The Fragile Dragon: Trade, Trump, and China's Vulnerabilities by Ker Gibbs
- The New York Times: China's Spending Slowdown Deepens as Households Tighten Their Belts by Keith Bradsher
- Reuters: G7 Leaders Tackle Reliance on China for Critical Minerals
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.
Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
- Trump's changing approach to Africa
- The China "debt trap" debate
- U.S.-China competition in Africa
- Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
- What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?
Show Notes:
- Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
- Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
- Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries.
Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode * China's potential gains from the Iran war * Energy insecurity and the global transition shift * Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech * Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role * The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains * Is China the biggest winner of the crisis?
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory
- The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo
- The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan.
But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals.
Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Why Brazil became China's top investment destination
- BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance
- Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors
- How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America
- Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy
- The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
One of the most common talking points among policymakers and analysts in Washington is the belief that China aims to replace the United States as the world's dominant power. Variations of that narrative are also widely shared in many European capitals.
There is little doubt that China is asserting itself more forcefully in global affairs, especially amid a new era of Great Power competition. But senior officials in Beijing have also made clear that they have little interest in taking on the full responsibilities and obligations that come with traditional global leadership.
In a recent Foreign Policy article, Jeremy Friedman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, explored the limits and ambitions of China's expanding international power. He joins Eric to discuss what China wants… and what it does not want from a changing global order.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- China's global ambitions
- The future of U.S. power
- Why Beijing rejects hegemony
- Taiwan and regional security
- Trade, tech, and critical minerals
- The emerging world order
Show Notes:
- Foreign Policy: How Far Do China's Ambitions Reach? by Jeremy Friedman
- East Asia Forum: China's ambitions are narrower than Washington thinks by David Kang, Jackie Wong & Zenobia Chan
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing this week hoping China could help contain the escalating U.S.-Iran crisis, but the summit underscored how limited Beijing's influence over Tehran actually is.
In Washington, many policymakers assume China can pressure Iran because it buys the vast majority of Iranian oil. But the reality is far more complicated, and there is little evidence the Iranian leadership would make major national security concessions at Beijing's request.
William Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to unpack what U.S. officials misunderstand about China's relationship with Iran, why Beijing is reluctant to use its economic leverage aggressively, and how China itself is vulnerable to the broader economic fallout from the war.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Why Trump wanted China's help on Iran
- The limits of China's leverage over Tehran
- How Iran views Beijing and Washington differently
- Why oil is only part of China's concern
- The economic risks of a prolonged war
- What the Trump-Xi summit revealed about global power dynamics
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: China and the Iran War: The Logic and Limitations of China's Middle East Diplomacy by William Figuerora
- The China-Global South Project: Through Allegory, China Uses AI to Shape Its Narrative of the Iran Conflict by William Figuerora
- The China-Global South Project: Social Media Commentators Are Misreading the China Angle in the U.S.–Israeli War With Iran by William Figuerora
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
China operates the world's largest fleet of deep-sea research vessels, with more than 40 ships officially tasked with civilian scientific missions. But an investigation by CNN and the environmental news outlet Mongabay found that many of these ships appear to operate in ways more in line with intelligence gathering than with purely scientific research.
The CNN/Mongabay investigation tracked eight vessels over a five-year period and found that they spent very little time conducting their stated objective to do deep-sea mining research and instead, according to marine trafficking data, logged extensive trips in strategic waterways and sensitive military zones that could prove critical in the event of a future maritime conflict with the United States.
Kara Fox, a senior reporter at CNN, and Elizabeth Alberts, a senior staff writer at Mongabay, led the joint investigation and join Eric to discuss what their findings do... and don't reveal about China's fleet of deep-sea research vessels.
Show Notes:
- CNN: China's growing influence in the Pacific is 5,000 meters deep by Kara Fox, Elizabeth Alberts, Lou Robinson and Byron Manley
- Mongabay: China's deep-sea mining fleet may also track US submarines by Elizabeth Alberts and Kara Fox
*]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-6a0571e7-0984-832b-ab1b-026d3a267686-0" data-turn-id-container= "request-6a0571e7-0984-832b-ab1b-026d3a267686-0" data-testid= "conversation-turn-20" data-scroll-anchor="false" data-turn= "assistant"> 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- China's growing fleet of deep-sea research vessels
- Allegations of dual-use scientific and intelligence activities
- Deep-sea mining and the race for critical minerals
- Why India, the U.S., and others are increasingly concerned
- The strategic importance of undersea mapping and maritime routes
- Environmental risks linked to deep-sea mining exploration
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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When Panama's Supreme Court ruled that Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison's operation of two ports on either side of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, President Jose Raul Mulina said at the time that he wasn't too concerned about China retaliating.
Now, several months later, Mulina and other Panamanian officials are becoming increasingly concerned that this is precisely what's happening after China detained dozens of Panamanian-flagged vessels or "inspections." Separately, China called on the two shipping companies, Maersk and MSC, slated to take over operations of the Panamanian ports vacated by CK Hutchison, to reconsider — insinuating there could be severe consequences if they don't comply.
Pedro Armada, managing partner at Armada Risk Consulting, is following the events closely from Panama City and joins Eric to discuss the increasingly difficult position the government finds itself in between the U.S. and an increasingly assertive China.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- China's response to Panama's port ruling
- Rising tensions around the Panama Canal
- Delays targeting Panamanian-flagged ships
- U.S. pressure on Chinese influence
- Maersk and MSC caught in the middle
- The bigger U.S.-China rivalry
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
The U.S. created the post-World War II international order that it no longer wants to lead today. But what replaces it is still unknown. So, in the meantime, small and medium-sized countries, so-called "middle powers," are scrambling to form new partnerships to insulate themselves from the inevitable instability that will arise from this transition.
We're seeing this play out daily now as leaders from South Africa, Brazil, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and dozens of other countries crisscross the globe at a frenetic pace to build what many are describing as a new middle-power coalition.
But Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute, argued in a Foreign Policy column that it's going to be difficult, if not impossible, for a coalition like this to succeed. Sarang joins Eric to explain why divergent north-south interests will be very hard to overcome.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Rapid global realignment among middle powers
- Declining trust in U.S.-led institutions
- BRICS and alternative power coalitions
- China's growing Global South influence
- Transactional diplomacy and diversification
- What the next world order may look like
Show Notes:
- Foreign Policy: Can Middle Powers Gel? by Sarang Shidore
- The New York Times: American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming by Sarang Shidore
- Politico: Trump Is Demolishing the Global Order. Here's What Might Come Next.
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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U.S. President Donald Trump will travel to Asia next week for a highly anticipated summit with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Trump will be returning to a region he's personally transformed through his challenges to the international order, tariffs, and now the Iran war that's hit Asia's energy sector especially hard.
The U.S.-led security architecture across the Asia-Pacific is also showing signs of real strain, as alliances fray and the institutions set up to counter China are on the verge of collapse.
Derek Grossman, a prominent U.S.-Asia scholar at the University of Southern California and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Asia-Pacific, argues that the Quad security partnership is now "on the brink of extinction." Derek joins Eric to discuss how 18 months of Trump's foreign policy have reshaped Asia's security landscape.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Trump-Xi summit and the future of U.S.-China relations
- Taiwan tensions and fears over U.S. security commitments
- The possible collapse of the Quad alliance strategy
- How Southeast Asian countries are balancing China and the U.S.
- China's growing influence in Indonesia, Thailand, and ASEAN
- Why Asian allies are questioning America's long-term role
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: The Asia-Pacific's New Oil Order by Derek Grossman
- Foreign Policy: Trump's Southeast Asia Trade Deals Are in Limbo by Derek Grossman
- Hinrich Foundation: Balancing act or breaking point? Indonesia's trade policy amid US-China rivalry by Derek Grossman
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Ties between China and Vietnam appear to be improving across every front. Vietnam is selling more to China, while China is investing more in its southern neighbor. Even on thorny territorial issues in the South China Sea, the two sides said they're talking through their differences.
And last month, Vietnamese leader To Lam traveled to China in his capacity as both General Secretary of the Communist Party and President of the country, a model many say was inspired by the Chinese political structure.
All of this has prompted discussion among some Vietnamese analysts that Hanoi is swinging in Beijing's direction.
But Khang Vu, a visiting scholar in Vietnamese political science at Boston College, strongly disagrees. Khang joins Eric to discuss why Hanoi's longstanding commitment to non-alignment among the major powers remains the bedrock of Vietnamese foreign policy.
Show Notes:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Why Vietnam Is Swinging in China's Direction by Nguyen Khac Giang
- The Diplomat: The Myth of Vietnam's Tilt Toward China by Khang Vu
- The Diplomat: Interpreting the Future of Vietnam-China Relations Through the 2026 Joint Statement by Hai Hong Nguyen and Vu Quy Son
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Vietnam–China relations: perception vs. reality
- The "Four No's" and non-aligned foreign policy
- Tho Lam's Beijing visit and key takeaways
- South China Sea tensions and regional dynamics
- Tech, trade, and Huawei: strategic hedging
- Navigating U.S.–China rivalry and global pressure
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Sales of Chinese renewable energy products surged to record highs in March in response to the disruption of oil and gas supplies brought on by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
Shipments of Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels all surged as countries and consumers around the world are moving quickly to insulate themselves from the worsening oil shocks.
Tim McDonell, climate and energy editor at the online news site Semafor, joins Eric to explain how China has spent the past 40 years preparing for what's happening in today's energy market.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Impact of the Iran war on global energy markets
- Southeast Asia's vulnerability to fossil fuel disruptions
- Surge in Chinese clean energy exports and technology
- Energy security shifting from economics to national defense
- Risks of dependence on Chinese energy supply chains
- U.S.–China competition in the future of energy systems
Show Notes:
- Semafor: China's winning energy strategy by Tim McDonell
- Semafor: US top fusion CEO says Washington losing race to China by Tim McDonell
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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The development finance industry would like us to believe that money for infrastructure, education, and other needs goes to where it's needed most. The reality, though, isn't that simple. Politics, it turns out, plays a much more important role than many would like to admit.
Keyi Tang, an assistant professor at ESADE Business School in Spain, studied development finance data on 48 African countries over a 20-year period that revealed that money often flows to those who hold influence rather than to those who need it most.
Keyi joins Eric to discuss the findings that she recently published in her new book, "Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa."
]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-(--header-height)" dir="auto" data-turn-id="0ddb3fa3-4890-481a-8769-cfdee70325dd" data-testid="conversation-turn-23" data-scroll-anchor="false" data-turn="user"> ]:pointer-events-auto [content-visibility:auto] supports-[content-visibility:auto]:[contain-intrinsic-size:auto_100lvh] R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]" dir="auto" data-turn-id= "request-WEB:b81fb5bb-efdb-4366-8625-2222c43c2bc3-11" data-testid= "conversation-turn-24" data-scroll-anchor="false" data-turn= "assistant"> 📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Political forces shaping development finance
- How China compares to Western lenders
- Why aid often favors politically strategic regions
- The role of domestic elections and power dynamics
- Structural inequalities in the global finance system
- The rise of borrower coordination efforts
- Impact of shrinking Western and Chinese funding
- How civil society can drive accountability
Show Notes:
- Cambridge University Press: Power Over Progress: How Politics Shape Development Finance in Africa by Keyi Tang: https://a.co/d/04Oc87sf
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Long neglected by the United States, Latin America is now on the frontlines of the global contest with China. Washington's new National Security Strategy made it clear that the U.S. must remain the unrivaled hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere, something it can't do so long as China is the largest trading partner for most Latin American countries.
The U.S. is particularly unnerved by the scale of Chinese infrastructure development across the region and the fact that it's becoming a major investor, particularly in larger countries like Brazil.
Former Chilean ambassador to China Jorge Heine, now a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, joins Eric to discuss why this competition is accelerating and whether "active non-alignment" remains a viable strategy in this new era of geopolitical competition.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- The intensifying U.S.–China rivalry in Latin America
- Washington's push to block Chinese infrastructure projects
- Strategic battlegrounds: ports, telecom cables, and digital connectivity
- How Latin American countries are balancing competing pressures
- The concept of "active non-alignment" in today's geopolitical climate
- Why China remains an indispensable economic partner for the region
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
The Cambodian government is leading a massive, unprecedented crackdown on the scamming business that once accounted for an estimated one-third of the country's GDP. For the past six months, heavily armed security forces have raided scam centers across the country and arrested more than 6,000 in the first couple months of the year.
The campaign began last fall when the United States issued a criminal indictment against Chen Zhi, a multi-billionaire Chinese national who built a vast empire in Cambodia that included a huge network of scam compounds that generated a staggering $30 million a day.
Huang Yan, a Chinese journalist based in Southeast Asia, is among a small group of international journalists covering every detail of the ongoing crackdown against scam centers. Huang joins Eric from Bangkok to discuss why the fall of Chen Zhi was so important and what it reveals about the outsized role that Chinese actors are playing in this saga.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Cambodia's scam crackdown: reality vs. narrative
- Chinese kingpins behind the networks
- Life inside scam compounds
- The Chen Zhi case and global pressure
- Why the industry persists
- Where the scams are moving next
Show Notes:
- Cambodia: Rain and Dust: The Rise and Fall of Chen Zhi by Huang Yan
- The New York Times: Why Cambodia Handed Over a Man Accused of Stealing Billions in Crypto Scam by Sui-Lee Wee
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
U.S., European, and Japanese leaders are all talking about the urgency of building new supply chains to end their reliance on China for critical minerals and batteries that will power next-generation mobility, technology, and weapons. It all sounds great and makes for good politics at home, but the reality is that China's dominance of these vital supply chains is so big and still growing that it will be nearly impossible to close the gap anytime soon.
Zeyi Yang, a senior writer covering technology and business at Wired, recently detailed this phenomenon in a cover article for the magazine about how "Chinese EV batteries are eating the world." Zeyi joins Eric to discuss why it's going to be so difficult for the rest of the world to match China's near-total dominance of this increasingly vital sector.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- China's 80% dominance in EV batteries
- Why Chinese firms are expanding globally
- Key players like CATL, BYD, and Goshen
- Expansion into Europe and Southeast Asia
- Local tensions over the environment and labor
- Batteries as a strategic energy resource
Show Notes:
- Wired: Chinese EV Batteries Are Eating the World by Zeyi Yang: https://tinyurl.com/595hnzrh
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Conservative media outlets and think tank analysts in the United States have sharply criticized China for what they say is Beijing's failure to support its supposed "allies" in Venezuela and Iran. Their arguments have gained traction on X and other social media platforms, where critics portray China as an unreliable partner that avoids confrontation, especially with the United States.
Other analysts dispute that interpretation. Scholars such as Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argue the criticism rests on a flawed assumption: that China's relationships with countries like Iran resemble the formal alliance commitments the United States maintains with its partners. In reality, Beijing's partnerships carry no comparable security guarantees.
In a recent Foreign Policy article, Wang Zichen, deputy secretary-general of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, pushes back against these critiques. He outlines China's strategic priorities and explains why Beijing is unlikely to offer the kind of security commitments that define U.S. alliances.
Zichen joins Eric to discuss why China structures its global relationships differently—and why Beijing has little intention of acting as a security patron for partners like Iran.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode
- Why U.S. critics say China is abandoning its partners
- Why China does not treat Iran or Venezuela as formal allies
- The difference between U.S. alliances and Chinese partnerships
- How China's domestic priorities shape its foreign policy
- Why Beijing avoids acting as a global security guarantor
- What this debate reveals about U.S. and Chinese strategic thinking
Show Notes:
- Foreign Policy: China Won't Play Security Patron for Iran by Wang Zichen
- Beyond the Ideological: The Iran Question Is All About China by Zineb Riboua
- Foundation for Defense of Democracies: Beijing Offers Tehran Lukewarm Rhetorical Support as Iranian Actions Threaten China's Oil, Trade Flows by Jack Burnham and Max Meizlish
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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China has launched a series of global governance and trade initiatives over the past decade that have sparked concern in U.S. and European capitals about whether Beijing is seeking to displace the Western-led international order. The so-called "5Gs" include the Global Governance/Security/Development/Civilization/AI Initiatives, along with the BRI, SCO, AIIB, and numerous other Chinese-initiated programs, all of which seem to suggest that China is, in fact, building a parallel international governance architecture to replace the post-WWII institutions.
But Joel Ng, senior fellow and head of the Centre for Multilateralism Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, offers a different interpretation. He argues that China's new governance initiatives are not primarily designed to replace the existing international order. Instead, Beijing is using them as instruments to advance its own more narrowly defined strategic interests.
Joel joins Eric to discuss the new book he edited, The Dragon's Emerging Order: Sinocentric Multilateralism and Global Responses.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode:
- What "Sinocentric multilateralism" actually means
- Whether China is creating parallel institutions to the UN system
- The role of BRICS and other emerging multilateral platforms
- Why many Global South countries find China's initiatives attractive
- How China's global governance ideas differ from U.S. alliance systems
- What could happen if the United Nations weakens or collapses financially
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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The U.S., Japan, and other G7 countries are scrambling to secure critical minerals to end their reliance on Chinese-controlled supply chains. Every week, there's news of another mining deal for cobalt, lithium, and other resources essential to powering 21st century technology.
But the race to control critical resources may already be over. Decades before countries in the Global West recognized the importance of these minerals and metals, China quietly built out a vast network of mining and refining operations.
Nicholas Niarchos, author of the new bestselling book "The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth," joins Eric & Géraud to discuss the history of the battery metal competition and why China's early moves in this space may have given it an insurmountable lead.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode:
- Why everyone sees the critical minerals supply chain differently and who's missing the full picture
- The making of "The Elements of Power" — one journalist's journey from Greece to Congo
- Artisanal mining, child labor, and the political ecosystem keeping it alive
- How China built its Congo mining empire over 30 years while the West looked away
- The Sicomines "Deal of the Century" and what it revealed about Chinese strategy
- Small Chinese traders, violence, and the uneasy coexistence on Congo's mining frontier
- Indonesia, Western Sahara and the global pattern of extractive exploitation
- Why the US critical minerals push may already be too little too late
Show Notes:
- Purchase a copy of The Elements of Power: A Story of War, Technology, and the Dirtiest Supply Chain on Earth: https://a.co/d/0g8xV4n8
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
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The United States and Israel have launched strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a full-scale war in the Middle East. As the region descends into conflict, a fascinating debate has emerged about what this means for China: from the surge in Chinese defense stocks and weapons export opportunities, to the collapse of Beijing's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement.
Is this a strategic disaster for China, or does the chaos actually create unexpected openings?
Andrea Ghiselli, research director at The ChinaMed Project and a lecturer in international politics at the University of Exeter, joins Eric to discuss the stark differences in how this conflict is discussed in China and in the Global West.
📌 Topics Covered in this Episode:
- The US-Israel strikes on Iran and the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei
- Why Chinese defense stocks surged to a 10-year high on the Shanghai Stock Exchange
- The "ally" myth: why China was never going to militarily defend Iran
- The collapse of China's landmark Saudi-Iran diplomatic détente
- Asymmetric warfare — why Iran's cheap drones may outlast America's expensive missiles
- China's energy security: oil stockpiling strategy and Strait of Hormuz exposure
- US munitions depletion and what it means for a potential Taiwan scenario
- What to watch in Chinese discourse if the Islamic Republic faces collapse
Show Notes:
- The ChinaMed Project: How Chinese Experts are Reacting to the American-Israeli Strikes on Iran by Andrea Ghiselli: https://tinyurl.com/mr439hdp
- The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/484p6bbn
- The China-Global South Project: Chinese Nationalist Voices Dismissed Online After Iran Strike Defies Predictions by Han Zhen: https://tinyurl.com/bdenrfyd
People to Follow Reference in this Episode:
- @GeringTuvia, analyst at Planet Nine, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub
- @EvanFeigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
The Panamanian government formally took over the two ports operated by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison this week at both ends of the Panama Canal. U.S. officials celebrated the move as part of their larger effort to expel China from the Western Hemisphere.
Washington has now set its sights on the Chinese-owned Chancay mega port in Peru.
But given the extent of Chinese engagement in Latin America, most notably the fact that the region does more than half-a-trillion dollars of trade annually with China, is it even possible for the U.S. to expel the Chinese?
Pedro Armada, a Panama City-based risk consultant who closely follows the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America, joins Eric to discuss what happens next following the expulsion of CK Hutchison from the canal zone and what it means for the rest of Latin America.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
• Panama's takeover of Chinese-operated ports • U.S. pressure on Peru's Chinese-built Chancay port • Trump's Western Hemisphere strategy toward China • Narrative battles and misinformation in Latin America • Trade ties that make decoupling from China difficult • Whether Beijing is waiting out U.S. political cycles
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: The Paradox of Panama's "Rule of Law": Hutchison Ports vs. Minera Panama by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/4vcta4tw
- The China-Global South Project: Panama and the New U.S. Strategy to Counter China in Latin America by Pedro Armada: https://tinyurl.com/msspbmbw
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:
- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
- Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas
Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Shenzhen-based Transsion Holdings is now a massive Chinese technology company that few people outside of Africa and certain parts of Asia have heard of. Even in China, the brand, now the world's 5th-largest mobile phone producer, remains largely unknown.
Transsion gained notoriety after it entered the African market in 2006. Back then, the world's largest phone brands all but ignored African consumers, selling low-end, late-model devices designed primarily for Western and Asian consumers.
The Chinese company saw an opportunity and tweaked the software on its phones to optimize photos for darker skin tones, and added a suite of features like dual SIM cards, dustproofing, and longer battery life to sell sub-$100 phones to Africa's booming youth market. That formula worked, and the company's three brands, Tecno, Infinix, and iTel, have dominated the market for more than a decade.
But little is known about how Transsion achieved its success in Africa. Lu Miao, an assistant professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, joins Eric & Cobus to lay out the company's strategy and why it was so effective in a market that others largely ignored.
Purchase the book: The Transsion Approach: Translating Chinese Mobile Technology in Africa by Lu Miao: https://a.co/d/04AKaajZ
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
• Why rural-first strategy beat Silicon Valley-style scaling • How African distributors helped shape product design and marketing • The importance of dual SIM cards, long battery life, and localized features • The role of Carlcare repair centers in building long-term loyalty • The shift from feature phones to smartphones and rising competition • Growing patent lawsuits and the next phase of AI-driven competition
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
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The United States and China are pursuing sharply different strategies in a region that is no longer best understood as the "Middle East," but as part of a broader Asian-centered geopolitical system historically described as "West Asia."
This vast region stretches from countries along the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, all the way to the Eastern Mediterranean. While the U.S. remains the undisputed military hegemon in this theater, China is steadily becoming the indispensable economic power, providing access to vast pools of capital, new technology, and expanding trade.
Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and a director at the geopolitical advisory firm McLarty Associates, joins Eric from Washington, D.C., to discuss his new book that explores how the U.S., China, and other powers are adapting to this new expanded view of the Middle East known as "West Asia."
Purchase the book: West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East by Mohammed Soliman
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
• Why the Middle East is increasingly being reframed as West Asia • China's quiet diplomatic outreach to Israel and the Palestinians • Surging Chinese trade and bank lending in the Gulf • The Asianization of Gulf economies through trade, energy, and demographics • Whether China will translate economic power into military presence • America's role as a resident security power with 50000 troops in the region • Why U.S. grand strategy may require doing more with less in West Asia • The India Middle East Europe Corridor and connectivity as instruments of power • AI compute infrastructure and the Gulf's post-oil transformation • Israel's evolving role in regional security architecture • How great power competition is reshaping alliances and coalitions • Whether values or interests will define the next phase of U.S. engagement
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South.
Congress nearly tripled the DRC's budget from $60 billion to $205 billion to be used over the next five years. While that is a substantial increase, it's just a small fraction of what Chinese entities spend each year on BRI projects.
Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford, researchers at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., join Eric to discuss why they contend it's a bad idea for the DFC to compete head-on with China, rather than focus on its original mandate to build market capacity in poorer nations.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
• The expanded mandate and six-year reauthorization of the US Development Finance Corporation • Why countering China now drives US development finance strategy • How the DFC compares with China's Belt and Road Initiative • The limits of development finance as a tool of great power competition • Critical minerals energy, and supply chains as DFC priorities • The Lobito Corridor and overlapping US-China interests • Why Global South countries resist choosing sides • How the DFC could compete more effectively by focusing on development
Show Notes:
- Responsible Statecraft: US capital investments for something other than beating China by Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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There's been a lot of discussion in recent years about the financial health of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Critics contend the BRI became overstretched, bankrupting borrowers and straining creditors suffering from a weakening Chinese economy.
Even the Chinese government sought to reframe the BRI with its "small yet beautiful" tagline to reflect a new era of purported austerity.
And while all of that was certainly true when it comes to state-backed Chinese entities that used to be at the forefront of the BRI, new data from Griffith University in Australia and the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University reveals that Chinese private enterprises are now leading the way.
Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, joins Eric to review the 2025 BRI data and explain what led to a record year of BRI engagement around the world.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
- China's Belt and Road investment surge in 2025
- Why the BRI narrative of decline no longer holds
- Africa's return as a top destination for Chinese investment
- The rise of fossil fuel projects alongside green energy
- How geopolitics and US trade policy shape BRI decisions
- The growing role of Chinese private companies overseas
- What the latest BRI data signals for the years ahead
Show Notes:
- Green Finance and Development Center: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025
- Financial Times: Beijing pours cash into Belt and Road financing in global resources grab by Edward White
- The Economist: China's Belt and Road Initiative is booming again
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system.
Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over.
In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role.
Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
- Decline of the U.S.-led international order
- Small states' strategies in a multipolar world
- China's growing influence in South Asia
- Hedging, alignment, and strategic autonomy
- Lessons for the wider Global South
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States.
Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity."
Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
- China's sharp drop in Africa lending and what it signals
- Why big Chinese infrastructure projects are fading
- U.S. Africa relations after USAID and PEPFAR cuts
- The leaked State Department email and Africa as a "peripheral" priority
- America's collapsing credibility in Africa and beyond
- Why China is seen as an opportunity, not an ally
- Critical minerals and the limits of extractive diplomacy
- What the shifting U.S.-China-Africa balance means next
Show Notes:
- Post Strategy: On China by Judd Devermont
- The Guardian: Head of US Africa bureau urges staff to highlight US 'generosity' despite aid cuts by Aisha Down
- China Power Project: US-China-Africa Relations: A View from Africa by Lina Benabdallah
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant orations of the early 21st century. Carney channeled the fear and frustration of many global leaders when he defiantly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over.
The "rupture" that Carney referenced in his address has profound consequences for China as it moves to reshape a part of this new international order to better align with its interests.
Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a senior research scholar at Columbia University, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this is such a pivotal time for China as it moves to become a peer power of the United States, at least economically, without triggering the so-called "Thuycides Trap" that dictates this kind of rivalry often leads to war.
Show Notes:
- Foreign Affairs: China's Long Economic War — How Beijing Builds Leverage for Indefinite Competition by Zongyuan Zoe Liu
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
- Mark Carney's Davos speech and the declaration of a global rupture
- The collapse of the rules-based international order
- What a post-American world looks like for middle powers
- Economic coercion and the weaponization of supply chains
- Where China fits in the new global order
- China's long economic war and leverage strategy
- The Global South's trust gap with China
- Why the debt trap narrative persists despite evidence
- China as an opportunity rather than ally in emerging markets
- The rapid erosion of U.S. global credibility
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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- French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Join us on Patreon! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
China was among the first and most vocal opponents of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro. Curiously, though, when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to launch military strikes against Iran as Tehran dealt with a massive popular uprising, China was largely silent.
Both Venezuela and Iran have high-level strategic partnerships with China, yet the Chinese leadership's responses to the crises in each country are radically different.
William (Bill) Figueroa, a leading China-Iran scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to discuss his latest CGSP column, which explains Beijing's low-key response and why the strategy is often misunderstood by many U.S. and European stakeholders.
📌 Topics covered in this episode:
- Why Iran's latest protests are more serious than past unrest
- How the crackdown escalated and what makes it unprecedented
- U.S. regime-change talk and the "boxing in China" narrative
- China's real exposure to Iranian and Venezuelan oil
- Debunking the myth of a deep, all-weather China–Iran alliance
- Why Beijing stayed quiet on Iran but reacted strongly on Venezuela
- Hard power limits and why China won't intervene militarily
- The quiet influence China already exerts behind the scenes
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander |
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
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In this special bonus episode, Eric speaks with Kaiser Kuo, host of the popular Sinica Podcast, about China's response to the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro.
Many U.S. and European analysts have framed Maduro's downfall as a "setback" or even an "embarrassment" for Beijing, but while that may be true, Eric argues that it's also premature to make such declarations less than a week after Maduro's downfall. After all, U.S.-led military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya all started well but ended up being very costly failures for Washington.
📌 Topics covered include:
- China's reaction to Maduro's detention
- Why "China setback" claims may be premature
- Beijing's messaging vs. Chinese social media
- Why Venezuela ≠ Taiwan
- China's economic exposure in Venezuela
- The rise and fall of oil-backed loans
- What "all-weather partnership" really means
- Panama Canal risks for China
- Limits of U.S. hemispheric leverage
- China's Latin America knowledge gap
- Beijing's coup-response playbook
- Military lessons—and misreadings
- Instability as a threat to China's trade model
- What signals to watch next
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth
Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social
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One of the prevailing narratives that's emerged following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolás Maduro is that this is a major setback for China. Some analysts have called it a "strategic failure" on Beijing's part, while others have described it as "reality check" for China's role as a "global player."
But China's ability to influence events in Venezuela and elsewhere in Latin America is extremely limited, so the assessment that what happened in Caracas was a blow to Beijing may also be overstated.
Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss whether Maduro's capture presents new risks or opportunities for China.
📌 Topics covered include:
- China's response to the U.S. detention of Nicolás Maduro
- Why Venezuela matters to China: oil, loans, and exposure
- Why Venezuela is not a Taiwan precedent
- The U.S. "Our Hemisphere" doctrine and spheres of influence
- China's special envoy visit to Caracas
- Short-term setbacks vs. long-term gains for China
- Electoral pushback against China in Latin America
- Panama tensions over ports and Chinese-linked infrastructure
- Why Latin America cannot quickly decouple from China
- Military force vs. economic leverage in U.S.–China rivalry
Show Notes:
- The China-Global South Project: Q&A: Maduro's Fall Tests China's Influence in Washington's Backyard by Alonso Illueca
- The China-Global South Project: U.S. Strike in Venezuela Intensifies Chinese Media Debate Over Taiwan by Han Zhen
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud
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In this special year-end edition of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud look back on the top stories of 2025 and look ahead to the key trend to watch in 2026.
📌 Topics covered include:
- Simandou goes online (Guinea) and the iron ore geopolitics shift
- Zambia's Kafue River spill and the China narrative battle
- China's manufacturing push, overcapacity, and export pressures
- Soybeans and South America's growing leverage in U.S.–China trade
- China–India détente and what it changes (and doesn't)
- G20 turbulence around South Africa and global governance fractures
- 2026 outlook: Southeast Asia rivalry, Zimbabwe lithium value-add, Senegal hidden debt
Show Notes:
- The Financial Times: The American company seeking to counter China in Africa by David Pilling and Leslie Hook
- Foreign Policy: China's Appetite for Rosewood Is Causing Chaos in Africa by Joshua Eisenman and Caroline Costello
- Environmental Investigation Agency: New Report Finds That Home Depot Sold Illegally Sourced Tropical Wood for Years
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @christiangeraud
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The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies.
Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers.
Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy.
📌 Key topics explored:
- How China defines and uses foreign aid
- Aid vs development finance in China's system
- The role of Chinese development banks
- Myths around "free" Western and Chinese aid
- Aid as diplomatic influence
- China's engagement with regional blocs (AU, ASEAN)
- What China's aid strategy means for the West
Show Notes:
Listen to season 2 of Face Off: The U.S. vs. China on Spotify
Join the Discussion:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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Soon after USAID was closed in February, speculation circulated that China would move quickly to fill the void left by the United States. That did not happen.
While the Chinese did step in to provide modest additional funding for a handful of programs, like demining initiatives in Cambodia and support for the Africa CDC in Addis Ababa, overall, there's been no significant change in China's foreign aid programs.
That did not surprise Alicia Chen, a PhD candidate at Stanford University, who noted in a recent Foreign Affairs article that Beijing is very tactical with where and how it distributes overseas development assistance. Alicia joins Eric to discuss Beijing's foreign aid strategy and how it differs from other major donors.
📌 Key topics in this episode:
- How China defines foreign aid
- Aid versus development finance in China
- Why China's aid budget is relatively small
- The role of Chinese development banks
- Myths about "free" Western and Chinese aid
- Aid as a tool of diplomatic influence
- China's focus on regional organizations
- African Union and ASEAN case studies
- Donkey hide trade and AU diplomacy
- What China's aid strategy means for the West
JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
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In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists?
Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include:
Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges.
📌 Key topics in this episode:
• The U.S.–China rivalry and why middle powers feel trapped • Australia's dilemma: China is the biggest customer AND biggest security concern • Why the Pacific Islands have become a frontline of strategic contestation • Joint patrols in the South China Sea and shifting regional alliances • Whether the Five Eyes model still works in a world where U.S. power is unpredictable • How Japan, South Korea, and Canada are rethinking security and trade • Why "rules-based order" no longer resonates across the Global South • China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and what it actually means for Africa • Why many countries fear mass migration more than great-power conflict • Why middle powers still lack a clear, forward-looking vision
JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque
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China has funded, designed, and built more than 200 government buildings across Africa, including the headquarters of the African Union and Ecowas, foreign ministry annexes in Ghana and Kenya, and at least 15 national parliaments.
Eric and Cobus speak with Innocent Batsani-Ncube, an associate professor of African politics at Queen Mary University of London and author of the new book China and African Parliaments.
Drawing on extensive fieldwork in Lesotho, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, Batsani-Ncube explains how China's parliamentary construction boom works, why African governments welcome it, and what he calls "subtle power"—a form of elite-level influence that sits between soft and sharp power.
📌 Key topics in this episode:
- Why China builds African parliamentary buildings — and why African governments accept them
- "Subtle power" vs. soft power vs. sharp power
- The politics behind construction, design, and land selection
- How these buildings shape legislative capacity and political identity
- Case studies: Lesotho, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Congo-Brazzaville
- Does this compromise sovereignty? Or strengthen parliaments?
- Are these buildings really vectors for Chinese espionage?
📘 Purchase China and African Parliaments by Innocent Batsani-Ncube on Amazon
JOIN THE DISCUSSION:
X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander
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JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
China's rapid ascent from rural poverty to industrial superpower reshaped the global economy and established a new center of gravity for manufacturing. Today, Chinese factories anchor much of the world's supply chains, producing goods at a speed and scale that few countries can match.
Behind this transformation is a system that author Dan Wang describes in his new book "Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future" as the "engineering state," a model defined by massive investments in infrastructure, strategic planning, and so-called "process knowledge" gleaned from the country's rapid industrial development.
Now, more and more, the Chinese government touts this development model as an example for other countries in the Global South to emulate.
Dan joins Eric to discuss whether the so-called "engineering state" is replicable elsewhere or if it's a uniquely Chinese phenomenon.
CHAPTERS: • Setting the Stage – China's rise from rural poverty to industrial superpower • The Engineering State – How China builds, plans, and organizes at a massive scale • Roots of the Model – East Asian development traditions and Soviet legacies • Infrastructure as Strategy – High-speed rail, bridges, airports, and the costs behind them • Industrial Capacity – Manufacturing clusters, supply chains, and process knowledge • The Speed Advantage – Why Chinese firms move faster than global competitors • Tech Transfer Debates – Joint ventures, old IP, and myths about forced transfers • Subsidies and Support – What Chinese industrial subsidies do—and what they don't • Exporting the Model – Limits of replication in Africa, Asia, and the Global South • The China Price – How scale, logistics, and workforce learning lock in dominance • Internal Tensions – Debt, underused infrastructure, and diminishing returns • Shifting Priorities – Xi's push away from consumer tech and toward strategic industries • Global Backlash – Overcapacity, trade pushback, and rising protectionism • Future Crossroads – Why China's development engine is losing momentum • Lessons for the Global South – What countries can adapt—and what they must avoid
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China is breaking the rules of development. Typically, as countries progress up the value chain, they transition from agriculture to light industry, then to heavy industry, and ultimately to high-technology and services. And as they move up the value chain, this creates opportunities for less-developed countries to advance.
But China's not doing that. Chinese manufacturers are holding on to their immense productive capacity, enabling them to produce both low-tech sneakers and high-tech semiconductors at a scale and cost that are unrivaled.
Now, as developing countries around the world seek to move up the value chain, they will have to compete head-on against the dreaded "China Price."
James Kynge, who covered China for nearly 30 years at the Financial Times, delved into this challenge in a fascinating audiobook that came out earlier this year, "Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate." James joins Eric from London to explain how China's ability to produce a $6 toaster exemplifies the country's enormous manufacturing advantage that will be very difficult, if not impossible, for other countries to match.
CHAPTERS:
• Introduction – The $6 toaster and the global value chain crisis • The Flying Geese Model – How automation broke development's old path • China's Dual Reality – A continent-sized economy of billionaires and low-wage labor • Industrial Clusters – The unbeatable advantage of Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta • The Global South's Dilemma – Competing against the "China price" • Automation and Inequality – Why manufacturing isn't moving offshore • The $1 Trillion Surplus – Trade backlash and global tensions • Searching for Solutions – Industrial policy and self-strengthening in the Global South • Winners and Losers – Cheap exports, consumer gains, and producer pain • Political Risk – Xi Jinping's lesson from Western deindustrialization • The Humanoid Robot Moment – From $6 toasters to $6,000 robots • China's Auto Revolution – BYD and the new wave of affordable EVs • The Double-Edged Future – Opportunity and disruption in China's rise
SHOW NOTES:
- Financial Times: Global Tech Wars: China's Race to Dominate by James Kynge
- Financial Times: China's plan to reshape world trade on its own terms by James Kynge and Keith Fray
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As China's economic influence expands, so does its ambition to shape the very system that once constrained it.
In this episode of The China-Global South Podcast, Eric speaks with Greg Chin and Kevin Gallagher from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center about their new book that details China's transformation from a "rules taker" within the Bretton Woods system to a "rules maker" who's now reshaping the international development finance architecture.
Greg and Kevin explore the country's growing role in the IMF and World Bank, its creation of new institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB), and what this means for developing nations navigating between Western and Chinese-led finance.
CHAPTERS:
• Introduction – A brief calm in U.S.–China tensions • Rule Taker → Rule Maker – China's rise inside global finance • Building Alternatives – Creating the AIIB and NDB • Two-Way Countervailing Power – Leveraging inside–outside influence • Green Finance and "Next Practices" – Raising the bar on development norms • Debt and Diplomacy – How China handles restructuring • Institutional Layering – Shaping without dismantling • Washington's Dilemma – Anxiety over losing control • The Global South's New Agency – More options, more leverage • A New Multilateral Moment – Uncertain future for global governance
SHOW NOTES:
- 📚 Read the book (free download)
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China sits at the heart of Indonesia's energy paradox — driving the country's ambitious shift toward renewables while remaining deeply entrenched in its coal economy. Chinese financing and technology are accelerating Indonesia's clean energy buildout, from nickel refining to electric vehicles and solar manufacturing.
Yet the same Chinese firms are also behind large swathes of Indonesia's coal infrastructure, including off-grid plants that power the smelters fueling its industrial boom.
Kevin Zongzhe Li, an affiliated researcher at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis, explored this paradox in a recent report that also details how Jakarta is carefully positioning itself among the major powers to facilitate the transition to more sustainable energy supplies.
SHOW NOTES:
- The Asia Society Policy Institute: Indonesia's Energy Transition: Exercising Strategic Agency in Partnership with China by Kevin Zongzhe Li
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Chinese exports are booming—but ties with the U.S. are collapsing. Across Asia, from Beijing to Manila, Washington's shifting strategy under Trump is reshaping alliances and testing security guarantees that have underpinned the region for decades.
Eric speaks with James Crabtree, a distinguished visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and the Asia Society, about how Asia's leaders are adapting to a world in flux:
- China's mix of confidence and anxiety amid its own economic slowdown
- How Trump's erratic policy is breaking apart the anti-China coalition
- Growing doubts in Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila about U.S. security guarantees
- Taiwan's precarious position and fears of being left alone
- Vietnam's balancing act between U.S. tariffs and China's dominance
- Why India is quietly building backup plans with Europe
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For centuries, the United States was the undisputed hegemonic power across the Western Hemisphere; however, that is no longer the case today. China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of countries in Latin America and is quickly filling the void left by a decades-long U.S. retrenchment.
In his new book, "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America," Francisco Urdinez, an assistant professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, argues that U.S. neglect of the region has created a critical opening for China to expand both its economic and political influence in the Americas.
Francisco joins Eric from Santiago to discuss the future of the U.S.-China rivalry in Latin America.
SHOW NOTES:
- Purchase a copy of "Economic Displacement: China and the End of U.S. Primacy in Latin America" and receive a 20% discount through October 31, 2026, by entering the code ECDT25 at checkout: www.cambridge.org/9781009672269
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In the weeks since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the new Global Governance Initiative (GGI) during a speech at the SCO summit in Tianjin, Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been working overtime to build support for the new plan, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and other developing regions.
The GGI is the latest in a series of Chinese global initiatives that also focus on development, human rights, and security, which it's using to stake a larger claim for international leadership at a time when the U.S.-led system is collapsing.
Brian Wong, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University and a leading scholar on Chinese global governance, joins Eric to discuss what Beijing is hoping to accomplish with the GGI and its other governance initiatives.
SHOW NOTES:
- Routledge: Moral Debt: Defending a New Account of Reparative Justice by Brian Wong
- Hong Kong University Press: Towards a Future for BRICS+ edited by Heiwai Tang and Brian Wong
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It wasn't that long ago when the leaders from India and China couldn't even look at each other when they were in the same room. Today, the situation is very different. Ties between the two Asian powers have improved dramatically from a few years ago, when a violent conflict along their disputed border sent relations into a deep freeze.
But even though China and India have resolved a number of their differences in recent years, serious problems persist, none more so than their disputed border that remains one of the most heavily armed frontiers in the world.
Professor Jabin Jacob, associate professor at the Shiv Nadar Institute of Eminence and one of India's foremost China scholars, joins Eric to discuss why resolving the border dispute, in particular, is going to be very difficult.
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China's economic ties with Brazil are booming, and 2024 saw a stunning 113% jump in Chinese investment, totaling $4.2 billion across 39 projects, the highest number ever, according to a new report by the Brazil-China Business Council.
From renewable energy and oil to mining and automotive manufacturing, Chinese companies are pouring capital into Brazil's economy. This investment boom, though, comes at a sensitive time as China is moving aggressively to reduce its reliance on the U.S., particularly in the food sector.
Tulio Cariello, the Council's director of content and research, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge of Chinese FDI in Brazil and whether this upswing is expected to continue.
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The reset between India and China appears to be holding. Nearly two weeks after President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin, five years of frigid ties between the two Asian powers are steadily thawing.
However, it will take more than summits and statements to rebuild trust, particularly among Indian policymakers who remain wary of China's close ties with Pakistan and Beijing's broader ambitions across South Asia.
Constantino Xavier, a senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi and co-author of an in-depth report on Chinese engagement in South Asia, joins Eric to discuss how Modi aims to balance ties with China, the U.S. and Russia while preserving India's legendary non-alignment strategy.
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Two sharply contrasting foreign policy visions emerged this week from China and the United States. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping outlined an agenda in talks with fellow BRICS leaders that directly challenged Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine, urging instead for stronger multilateral cooperation.
Meanwhile in Washington, reports surfaced of a potential overhaul in U.S. security strategy, shifting the Pentagon's focus away from countering China abroad toward reinforcing defenses at home and across the Western Hemisphere.
No other region around the world has as much at stake in this duel as Southeast Asia, effectively the frontline in the simmering great power rivalry. Dylan Loh, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and a leading expert on Chinese foreign policy, joins Eric to discuss how Southeast Asian policymakers are responding to the mounting pressure coming from both Washington and Beijing.
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While most of the world's attention at this week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin was on Xi Jinping's meetings with leaders from the big powers, namely India and Russia, the Chinese President also spent considerable time with heads of state from many of the world's smallest countries, like the Maldives and Nepal, among others.
This is part of China's longstanding small-state diplomacy strategy, where Beijing cultivates relationships with these countries in the Global South through high-level gatherings and the same diplomatic pomp that leaders from more powerful countries receive when they visit the Chinese capital.
Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America, joins Eric to discuss his latest article on how China's small-state outreach is playing out on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica (population 75,000) and why it's so effective.
SHOW NOTES:
- The China-Global South Project: Small State, Big Gains: Why Dominica Matters in China's Global Strategy by Alonso Illueca
- The China-Global South Project: In Bolivia, China's Lithium Extraction Plans Went to the Polls and Lost Badly by Alonso Illueca
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This week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin signaled China's ambition to redefine global governance. Leaders from more than 20 countries endorsed the Tianjin Declaration, pressing for a multipolar order, tighter security cooperation, and expanded economic integration.
The joint statement also went further than past communiqués, condemning Israel's actions in Gaza and reflecting the bloc's growing willingness to weigh in on global conflicts.
Eric & Cobus discuss the powerful optics that emerged from this year's gathering, which appeared specifically choreographed to send a clear, unmistakable message to U.S. President Donald Trump.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi left Northeast Asia this week, embarking on a two-stop trip that includes Japan and then China, where he will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which begins on Sunday.
The PM's visit comes amid a full-scale implosion of India's ties with the United States, following Washington's imposition this week of a massive 50% tariff on all Indian exports to the U.S., the highest duties on any country in Asia, except China.
Derek Grossman, a professor at the University of Southern California and a leading Asia-Pacific affairs analyst in the United States, joins Eric from Los Angeles to discuss the high-stakes politics at this weekend's SCO gathering and whether Donald Trump's actions will coax India and China to reconcile.
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China's rapidly expanding presence in the Middle East has sparked a mix of anxiety and excitement, depending on one's perspective. Washington regards Beijing's support of Iran and the Palestinian cause, among other things, as key threats to its strategic interests. While Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and other regional actors see Beijing as a valuable economic partner.
A new book by two leading China-Mideast scholars, Mohamed Alsudairi at the Australian National University and Andrea Ghiselli from the University of Exeter, explores the future of Chinese engagement in the region by laying out three possible scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1: Continuity — China stays focused on trade and investment, without major security commitments. 🔹 Scenario 2: Expansion — Beijing and regional elites push for a deeper Chinese role in governance and security. 🔹 Scenario 3: Discord — mismatched expectations fuel uncertainty and instability.
Mohammed and Andrea join Eric to discuss their new book and which of the three forecasts they think is most likely to happen.
SHOW NOTES:
- Download a FREE copy of the book "Narratives of Sino-Middle Eastern Futures" by Mohammed Alsudairi and Andrea Ghiselli
- Follow the ChinaMed Project for complete coverage of Chinese engagement in the Mediterranean and Middle East regions: https://chinamed.substack.com/
- Subscribe to Andrea Ghiselli's Substack newsletter on China-Mideast relations: https://substack.com/@andreaghiselli
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Islamabad on Wednesday for a three-day visit, following a high-level stop in India earlier in the week, where he met both Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
His trip to Pakistan comes at a pivotal moment. Islamabad has recently repaired relations with the United States after more than a decade of estrangement, just as Washington's ties with India have soured.
Eram Ashraf, a UK-based China-Pakistani relations scholar and author of a forthcoming book on Sino-Pakistani security ties during the Cold War, joins Eric to discuss how Beijing is going to maneuver in South Asia's rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
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There's been a lot of speculation in the aftermath of the brief U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that Beijing would step in to bolster its longtime partners in Tehran. Rumors have been bouncing around that China will sell Iran advanced fighter jets and help rebuild the country's ballistic missile program, among other things.
There is no evidence, though, to support any of those claims.
Instead, China seems to be taking a more hands-off approach, providing Iran with bountiful moral support while remaining a loyal oil customer, but little else.
Bill Figueroa, a leading Iran-China scholar and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, joins Eric to explain why China appears to be satisfied with the current state of relations with Iran.
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For much of the past two years, we've been told to expect a slimmer, more austere Belt and Road under the new "Small Yet Beautiful" mantra. The days of Chinese mega deals across the Global South were over... or so we thought.
Turns out that Chinese firms, largely from the private sector, are continuing to invest heavily in energy, mining, and construction projects in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to new data from Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Beijing.
Total BRI engagement in the first half of 2025 topped $123 billion, a new record that surpassed the total for last year.
Christoph Nedopil, lead author of the new report, joins Eric to explain what's driving the surge in Chinese investment and construction contracts.
SHOW NOTES:
- Griffith University: China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025 H1 b by Christoph Nedopil
- Financial Times: China's Belt and Road investment and construction activity hits record by Joe Leahy
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Listen in on many of the foreign policy discussions about Vietnam that take place at think tanks and government seminars in Washington, D.C., and you'll hear this sense of optimism that "Hanoi is on our side." They see Vietnam's historical suspicions of China and the country's ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea as key indicators that Hanoi will eventually join a U.S.-led coalition to counter China.
Those presumptions, however, are wrong, according to Khang Vu, a leading Vietnamese political scientist and visiting scholar at Boston College. Khang joins Eric to explain why the U.S. is overestimating its military and trade leverage with Vietnam.
SHOW NOTES:
- The Diplomat: Why Vietnam Will Not Balance Against China by Khang Vu
- The Diplomat: Trump's Tariffs Won't Change the Trajectory of Vietnam's Foreign Policy by Khang Vu
- The Diplomat: With China Visit, Vietnam's To Lam Reinforces Bilateral Political Trust by Khang Vu
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There was widespread disappointment in Iran that China didn't do more to help Tehran during the recent 12-day war with Israel and the United States. Beijing, for its part, offered robust rhetorical and moral support, but little else.
The calculus for Chinese policymakers is that Iran just isn't as strategically important to its foreign policy as other countries in the region, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a leading expert on Sino-Persian Gulf relations, joins Eric to discuss his new book that explains China's rapidly expanding portfolio of interests in the region and why Iran, in particular, is not among Beijing's top priorities.
SHOW NOTES:
- Amazon.com: Building the Belt and Road Initiative in the Arab World: China's Middle East Math by Jonathan Fulton
- China-MENA Newsletter: The myth of China's leverage in Iran by Jonathan Fulton
- Bloomberg: Israel Urges China to Pressure Iran to Rein In Nuclear Ambitions
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In the first few months of this year, it seemed that China's ties with Israel were on the mend after entering into a deep freeze following the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas. China had begun to soften some of its rhetoric, and Israeli officials were keen to re-engage Beijing on economic issues.
That momentum stalled in mid-June, though, when Israel launched an attack on Iran that prompted a strong rebuke by China at the United Nations. Now that the fighting has stopped and a tense ceasefire appears to be holding, there are indications both countries may be ready to re-engage one another.
Gedaliah Afterman, a prominent Israeli China scholar and head of the Asia-Israel policy program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations, joins Eric to discuss Beijing's standing in the region after the war and what the prospects are for closer ties between Israel and China.
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China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.
The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.
Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.
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In this new era of surging instability and geopolitical uncertainty, so-called "Middle Power" states are rapidly diversifying their foreign policies to deepen engagement with other countries in the Global South, while reducing their exposure to the U.S. and China.
But the approach taken by these middle power countries varies a lot.
A new report by the Körber Foundation in Germany surveyed foreign policy experts from India, Brazil, and South Africa, revealed sharp divergences in how these countries view the global order, the roles of China and the U.S., and the future of multilateral institutions.
Eric & Cobus speak with two of the report's contributors, Manjeet Kripalani in Mumbai and Carlos Coelho in Rio de Janeiro, about how countries like India and Brazil are navigating this increasingly contested world.
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Latin America is the key focal point for the United States in its global competition with China. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he deems China's growing presence in the Western Hemisphere a direct threat to U.S. interests in the region.
This puts most countries in Central and South America in a tight spot, given that many states in this region count China as their largest trading partner and the U.S. as their largest source of investment.
Parsifal D'Sola Alvarado, a longtime China analyst and executive director of the Andrés Bello Foundation's China Latin America Research Center, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the divergent strategies some countries are taking to align themselves with one or both of the major powers.
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From Panama to Kenya to Indonesia, a growing number of developing countries are being pulled into the intensifying rivalry between China and the U.S. For these middle powers, the stakes are high as they must carefully navigate the tension to avoid provoking either side and risking serious consequences.
But rather than accommodating the U.S. and China, developing countries should instead pursue a different agenda that puts their interests first.
Jorge Heine, a former Chilean ambassador to China, South Africa, and India and now a research professor at Boston University, joins Eric & Cobus to talk about the latest edition of his book on active non-alignment that showcases the role of so-called "new neutrals."
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After several months of steadily improving ties, India-China relations appear to be cooling once again following the recent clashes in Kashmir. China's military support for Pakistan during the conflict earlier this month has triggered fresh concerns in New Delhi, with many now fearing that the fragile détente built over the past year is starting to unravel.
Tensions further escalated in recent days after Beijing announced new names for dozens of locations along the disputed border with India, drawing strong backlash from the Indian media. Meanwhile, the Indian government has banned several Chinese state-run media accounts on the social platform X.
Joining Eric from New Delhi is Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian Studies at Yale University, who breaks down the current state of Sino-Indian relations in the aftermath of the Kashmir conflict. Sushant also explains why observers should ignore India's noisy mainstream media and instead pay close attention to what Prime Minister Narendra Modi does—or doesn't—say about China.
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Donald Trump's return to the Middle East marks a shift toward transactional diplomacy, emphasizing trade, investment, and a retreat from human rights rhetoric. In a striking parallel, China has long pursued a similar approach in the region—prioritizing business ties over political entanglements.
The question now is how will China respond to this rapidly changing geopolitical landscape?
In this special edition of the podcast, CGSP partnered with The ChinaMed Project to organize an online seminar featuring leading experts from China and the United States, exploring how Beijing will adjust its Middle East engagement strategy in the Trump era.
Eric speaks with Zhang Chuchu, a China-Mideast scholar at the school of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, and Grant Rumley, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Later in the program, Enrico Fardella and Andrea Ghiselli from the ChinaMed Project join the discussion.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Latin American leaders on Tuesday to stand with Beijing in the fight against Donald Trump's campaign to upend the international system. Xi made the appeal at a ministerial gathering of leaders and senior officials from across Latin America and the Caribbean that's taking place this week in Beijing.
The President's appeal underscores the challenging position that Latin American states now find themselves in, caught between the escalating great power rivalry between the United States and China.
Alonso Illueca, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric from Panama City to discuss how different countries across the region are trying to foster closer economic ties with China without provoking a harsh response from the U.S.
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Two years ago, Daniel Russel and Blake Berger, senior analysts at the Asia Society Policy Institute, embarked on an ambitious project to bring U.S. and Chinese stakeholders together to speak in a safe, controlled setting about their respective countries' aid strategies in the Global South.
This was a big undertaking given how few direct contacts there are today between U.S. and Chinese stakeholders, particularly on a topic like international aid and development that is largely overlooked in the broader Sino-U.S. relationship.
But just as they were about to release their final report, Donald Trump upended their project with the decision to effectively halt all U.S. foreign aid.
Daniel and Blake join Eric & Cobus to talk about what they learned and how U.S. and Chinese international development assistance are poised to change in the Trump era.
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Central Asia is one of those regions that isn't getting a lot of attention these days, as it's not a major player in the escalating U.S.-China trade war. But that may soon change as both major powers look to the region to source energy, critical minerals, and build new logistics corridors.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent a few days in the Kazakh capital Almaty meeting with his five Central Asian counterparts to plan an upcoming leaders summit that will take place in June. Meantime, the Uzbek government this month confirmed an ambitious critical minerals deal with the United States, highlighting the region's growing strategic importance.
Yunis Sharifli, CGSP's non-resident fellow for Central Asia, joins Eric from Ankara, Turkey to discuss why this renewed attention on Central Asia will also propel the development of ambitious new transport routes linking Asia and Europe.
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Donald Trump strongly feels that U.S. security alliances in Europe no longer serve Washington's long-term interest. In his view, the U.S. is being "ripped off" by wealthy countries that can afford to pay for their protection but choose to rely on the United States instead. He also says much the same thing about the U.S. military presence in Japan and South Korea.
Curiously, though, the Philippines is different. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently visited Manila and reaffirmed Washigton's "ironclad" commitment to protect the Southeast Asian country against "China's aggression."
Ray Powell, director of the Sealight initiative at Stanford University's Gordian Knott Center for National Security Innovation and host of the "Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific Podcast," joins Eric and CGSP Southeast Asia Editor Edwin Shri Bimo to discuss why the national security team in Washington remains appears to be more committed to the Philippines than other alliance partners.
(A full transcript of this episode is available on the CGSP website)
Show Notes:
- Apple Podcasts: Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific? hosted by Ray Powell and Jim Caruso
- 60 Minutes: China rams Philippine ship while 60 Minutes on board; South China Sea tensions could draw U.S. in
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With new tariff threats from the Trump administration and rising tensions across key markets, companies and governments alike are scrambling to understand what decoupling—or de-risking—actually looks like in practice. From electronics and apparel to solar panels and electric vehicles, China's role in global production remains formidable. But is it unshakeable?
In this special bonus episode, Eric is joined by Agatha Kratz, Juliana Bouchot, and Lauren Piper from the Rhodium Group, whose recent report "China and the Future of Global Supply Chains" offers one of the clearest pictures yet of what's happening on the ground.
Together, they explore whether Southeast Asia, India, or Latin America can meaningfully absorb China's manufacturing output—and what the U.S. strategy of sweeping tariffs might mean for inflation, consumers, and the Global South.
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U.S. President Donald Trump insisted on Monday that he will not back down from his massive tariff campaign that he launched last week and even promised to impose even higher duties on Chinese goods in response to Beijing's 34% tariff retaliation on U.S. imported goods.
Kyle Chan, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University and author of the High Capacity Substack, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the impact of the escalating world trade war on developing countries and how China is responding by shifting more manufacturing to the Global South.
Show Notes:
- High Capacity: Beijing braces for impact: What Trump 2.0 might mean for US-China relations by Kyle Chan
- High Capacity: China is trying to reshape global supply chains by Kyle Chan
- High Capacity: Chinese semiconductors and alternative paths to innovation by Kyle Chan
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China and Vietnam have taken two distinctly different approaches in how they manage their territorial disputes with China. The Philippines is leaning into its alliance with the United States along with new security pacts with more than half a dozen other countries. Vietnam, in contrast, is going it alone.
Ironically, Vietnam is expanding its territorial presence in the disputed South China Sea through island reclamation, while the Philippines is merely trying to hold on to the territory it already claims. Yet, the face-off between Beijing and Manila is far more aggressive.
Khang Vu, a visiting scholar at Boston College and a leading Vietnam analyst, said the key difference between the two is the Philippines' decision to bring an outside power (the U.S.) into the dispute. Khang joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what lessons the South China Sea confrontation offers other countries trying to manage equally contentious great power rivalries.
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During his Senate confirmation, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio denounced the so-called "liberal international order" that he said was obsolete and no longer working for the United States. Since he and his boss, President Donald Trump, took office eight weeks ago, they have thoroughly upended the post-WWII global order that the U.S. itself established and led for the past 75 years.
The changes in Washington are happening so fast that it's impossible to keep up. Every day, institutions many assumed were invincible have either been closed or censured. Now, the challenges facing policymakers around the world is how to adapt to this emerging international system that is no longer anchored in Washington, D.C.
Gyude Moore, an inaugural visiting fellow at Global Neighbours and Liberia's former minister of public works, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he thinks African countries should do to thrive in a new post-American international order.
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U.S. President Donald Trump's decision this week to pause military funding for Ukraine and to align his government with Russia further widens the cleavage between the United States and Europe — effectively breaking what has long been known as "the West."
At first glance, many of China's Western critics will see this as welcome news, but it also means that Beijing must navigate in a much more fragmented and turbulent geopolitical environment.
The Paris-based global affairs think tank Institut Montaigne recently published a detailed forecast of the challenges that lie ahead for China over the coming decade. The report's authors, François Godement and Pierre Pinhas, join Eric & Cobus to discuss four scenarios they mapped out that could shape China's trajectory in this new era.
SHOW NOTES:
- Read the Institut Montaigne Report: China 2035: The Chances of Success
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When the Chinese hedge fund High-Flyer launched DeepSeek on January 20th, the global AI market for large language model (LLM) systems was turned upside down. Investors dumped nearly a trillion dollars of tech stocks in the U.S., panicked by the prospect that a cheaper, more nimbler alternative would undermine the massive investments that companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple were making in AI.
A month later, those stocks have all largely recovered. Now, as investors have had time to use DeepSeek and better understand what it can do, there's less concern that it'll displace U.S. tech giants. The focus now is on its impact on the rest of the world.
Asia Society Switzerland Fellow John Lee, a veteran Chinese technology analyst, joins Eric to explain why Chinese AI initiatives like DeepSeek along with new innovations in automotive tech are poised to take off in lower-income developing countries.
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At last week's Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touted his country's 5% economic growth last year as a "benefit to the world" thanks to all of the trade it does with countries around the world.
While countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, among other regions, are no doubt selling more raw materials to China, critics contend, though, that this trade pattern isn't healthy and mostly in China's favor.
This week, Eric, Cobus, and Géraud debate whether Chinese trade is helping or hurting developing countries and whether China's role as the world's manufacturer is also the primary reason why poor countries remain stuck at the bottom of the industrial value chain.
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When Donald Trump criticized Panama for its management of the canal that he claimed had fallen under Chinese control, many people at first thought this was just another round of Trump's usual bluster. But since his election last November, the President has been relentless in pressuring the government in Panama City and shows no signs of backing down until all Chinese entities have been expelled from the canal zone.
Alonso Illueca, an associate law professor at the Universidad Santa María La Antigua and a specialist in China-Panama relations, joins Eric & Cobus from Panama City to discuss the escalating crisis and why the government doesn't have a lot of options to push back against the U.S.
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On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump will take the oath of office and return to power as president of the United States. Trump is promising to overhaul U.S. foreign and commercial policy in what many experts believe will mark the start of a very tumultuous period — not just for the United States but also for countries around the world.
Sarah Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C. joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the impact of the coming Trump presidency on developing countries and how he expects China to respond.
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China is deeply unpopular in the U.S., UK, Japan, and most other wealthy countries, and given the politics in those regions, there's no indication that's going to change anytime soon. It's a very different story, though, in large parts of developing Asia, Africa, the Americas and the Middle East where public opinion surveys reveal generally favorable views of the Chinese.
A new "poll of polls" by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) on global public opinion about China reveals a lot more nuance about how people in the Global South feel about their countries' ties with China than what is framed in the mainstream media narratives.
Andrew Chubb, a senior fellow at ASPI, led the project and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what the data tells us about the diversity of views on China across the Global South.
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2024 will be remembered as a seminal year in China-Africa relations with a rebound of Chinese lending to the continent and renewed diplomatic engagement in the run-up to the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation summit that took place in Beijing.
Africa also emerged again as a centerpiece in the U.S.-China duel as leaders from both major powers visited the continent in 2024.
And while stakeholders in the U.S. and Europe struggle to get their businesses to see the opportunities available in Africa, Chinese firms have no such concerns as they expanded their presence this year in the mining, telecom, and automotive sectors.
In this year-end double episode, Eric, Cobus, & Géraud share their top three China-Africa stories of 2024 and provide a forecast for what to expect in the year ahead.
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A few months ago, China looked like it had all its Mideast diplomacy figured out. Israel and the U.S. were taking heavy hits in the court of global public opinion over the devastation caused by the war in Gaza.
Each harrowing image of Palestinian civilians enduring unimaginable suffering steadily undermined U.S. and Israeli claims that their war against Hamas was justified. Beijing eagerly criticized Washington's hypocrisy in championing universal human rights—except when it came to Israel, the U.S. military, and other selective American interests.
But now that Israel has decapitated Hamas' leadership in Gaza and Hezbollah's in Lebanon, and with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad now exiled to Russia, the geopolitical landscape in the region looks very different.
Tuvia Gering, a longtime China-Israel analyst and a cyber threat intelligence analyst at the Tel Aviv-based cyber security start-up Planet Nine, joins Eric & CGSP Middle East Editor Jony Essa to discuss how China's position in the region is seen from Israel.
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Tuvia Gering on Bluesky: @geringtuvia.bsky.social
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Tensions between China and the Philippines over territorial disputes in the South China Sea flared anew in December after another confrontation at sea. Soon after two vessels collided near the contested Scarborough Shoal, representatives from both sides took to the airwaves to blame the other for the latest incident.
Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Philippines counterpart Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. have made it clear they will not concede even a single inch of territory they claim rightfully belongs to their countries.
Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based lecturer at De La Salle University, joins Eric to discuss why the situation going into the new year will remain very tense.
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India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told the lower house of parliament last week that "some improvement" had been made in resolving the ongoing border dispute with China. But he also cautioned that a lot more work has to be done and that it will take years to "reset" relations with Beijing.
The two sides have pulled back their military forces from seven points along their contested boundary in the Himalayas, so they're no longer in close proximity to one another, but those troops are nonetheless still stationed there and haven't yet been redeployed.
Daniel Balazs, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, is a specialist in Sino-Indian relations and joins Eric to discuss what's motivating the two countries to negotiate a border settlement.
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is not a fan of the Biden administration's climate legislation known as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), describing it as a "green scam." Trump has promised to repeal it, which will undoubtedly be welcome news in Indonesia.
Indonesia is home to the world's largest nickel reserves, a critical ingredient for manufacturing EV batteries. But the IRA aims to limit China's role in the battery supply chain, presenting a huge headache for Indonesian nickel suppliers given the outsized role that Chinese smelters play in the country's mining sector.
Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute, an independent non-profit energy finance think tank in Jakarta, joins Eric to discuss Indonesia's uncomfortable position squeezed between China and the U.S. in the race to dominate transition mineral supply chains.
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Chinese contractors have been renovating the Ream Naval Base in Cambodia for the past two years, leading to widespread suspicion that the upgraded facility could eventually serve as a future outpost for the PLA Navy in Southeast Asia.
Despite compelling evidence that Chinese naval forces have been stationed at the base for much of the year, both the Chinese and Cambodian governments deny these claims.
Christopher Woody, an independent defense journalist based in Bangkok, argues that while it seems the Chinese military is set to maintain a presence at the base, it may not resemble a traditional military installation.
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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has already indicated that the Middle East is going to be a central focus of his second term's foreign policy. He's already named Elise Stefanik, a fiercely pro-Israel lawmaker, to be his ambassador at the United Nations and he's been in regular contact since his election last week with both Arab and Israeli leaders.
But Trump is coming back to power at a time when the region is very different than when he left office in 2020. Back then, China was a marginal player in Mideast diplomacy which is no longer the case. China's economic and diplomatic influence in the region has increased significantly over the past four years.
In this special edition, produced in partnership with The ChinaMed Project, Eric hosts six of the world's leading China-Mideast scholars to discuss their forecast for how Donald Trump's re-election will impact U.S.-China relations in the region.
The conversation is divided into two parts:
Panel 1: How the arrival of a new U.S. President fits in the national strategies of regional actors and their relations with China
- Ahmed Aboudouh is the head of the China studies unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow at the Chatham House in London.
- Gedaliah Afterman is the head of the Asia-Israel policy program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations and a lecturer at Reichman University and Tel Aviv University.
- Jonathan Fulton is an assistant professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and a nonresident senior fellow for the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs and the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
Panel 2: How a new US President will/might shape US-China relations in the Middle East
- Dawn Murphy is an associate professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College.
- Zhang Chuchu is an associate professor of international relations in the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University in Shanghai and she is the deputy director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University.
- Mohammed Al Alsudairi is a lecturer in politics and international relations of the Arabic speaking world at the Australian National University in Canberra.
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There's been a lot of talk in recent years about the new "small and beautiful" doctrine that now guides China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that a lot of people still do not understand what it actually means in practice.
President Xi Jinping first unveiled the concept at the Third Belt-and-Road Symposium in 2021 when he said that China's overseas development finance would focus more attention on "better connectivity" for telecommunications, energy, and financial services.
China has also had to scale down its financing of large-scale infrastructure projects because of economic challenges at home and debt sustainability issues among borrowing countries.
Lui Kanyi, a Beijing-based project finance lawyer and head of China at a large international law firm, has been closely following the transformation of the BRI for many of his Chinese clients. Kanyi joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the "small and beautiful" trend and what people should know about the future direction of the BRI.
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Even though the five countries in Central Asia are among the world's largest fossil fuel producers, the region faces chronic electricity shortages due to a lack of refining capacity. The energy crunch is further compounded by a reluctance to become overly dependent on Russian fuel.
To solve both problems, several Central Asian governments are looking to source renewable energy technology from China. While wind and solar still account for a small share of Central Asia's total energy production, that may soon change as more affordable Chinese green tech enters the market.
Yunis Sharifli, an independent Eurasia foreign policy analyst, recently explored this trend in an article published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Yunis joins Eric & Cobus to explain the geopolitics powering the green energy transition in Central Asia.
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India and China have reached a deal to de-escalate tensions along their bitterly disputed border in the Himalayas, potentially ending a contentious four-year stand-off between the two Asian powers.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said on Monday that the two countries agreed to conduct joint military patrols along the border known as the Line of Actual Control. No details of the pact have been released and the Chinese government has yet to comment on the arrangement.
If the two countries have, in fact, agreed to pull back their forces and disengage, it would have wide-ranging geopolitical consequences throughout Asia. Sushant Singh, a lecturer in South Asian studies at Yale University and contributing editor of The Caravan magazine in New Delhi, joined Eric & Cobus to discuss the ramifications of de-escalation along the Sino-Indian border.
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Chinese Premier Li Qiang is in Pakistan this week to get ties with its South Asian neighbor back on track after a series of terrorist attacks this year. The latest incident occurred earlier this month near the airport in the southern port city of Karachi when separatist militants with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed two Chinese nationals in a suicide bombing.
Pakistan has vowed to crack down on the militants but, so far, to little avail. In turn, Beijing has become increasingly frustrated with Islamabad's inability to better protect Chinese interests in the country.
Eram Ashraf, a China-Pakistan relations scholar, explained in a column published in The Diplomat how the violence is taking a toll on this vital Chinese diplomatic relationship. She joins Eric & Cobus to explain what's at stake for both sides if the Pakistani government can't contain the BLA.
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Chinese lending to African countries rebounded in a big way in 2023 after seven consecutive years of decline. Last year, Chinese lenders approved loans totaling $4.61 billion to African borrowers, a dramatic increase over the $922 million lent in 2022, according to Boston University's Global Development Policy Center (GDPC).
In the past, China lent billions to countries like Kenya and Nigeria to build massive infrastructure projects like ports and railways. That is no longer the case today as Chinese lending focuses on smaller, more sustainable initiatives, mainly in the energy, telecom, and logistics sectors.
Kevin Gallagher, director of the GDPC, and Diego Morro, a data analyst at GDPC, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the latest trends in Chinese development finance in Africa and a few of the surprises their research uncovered about which countries are getting the most financing.
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The rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon prompted a strong reaction from the Chinese government this week. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib on Monday at the UN in New York and condemned Israel's actions as “indiscriminate attacks against civilians."
It's notable, though, that neither Wang nor other Chinese officials made any mention of Hezbollah's missile strikes on targets in Israel, including those that hit civilian areas.
The deteriorating security environment in the Middle East is a critical time for China, which is transitioning from a strategy of "hedging" to one that is increasingly focused on "wedging."
Jonathan Fulton and Michael Schuman, senior nonresident scholars at The Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C., join Eric & Cobus to discuss their new report on China's Mideast strategy and Beijing's new regional priorities.
SHOW NOTES:
- The Atlantic Council: China’s Middle East policy shift from “hedging” to “wedging” by Jonathan Fulton and Michael Schulman: https://tinyurl.com/286pyh3o
- Subscribe to The China-MENA Newsletter by Jonathan Fulton: https://chinamenanewsletter.substack.com/
- Subscribe to The China-MENA Podcast on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/256tdywu
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For much of the past thirty years, since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been largely unrivaled in its power in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Today, that is no longer the case as the U.S. faces new challenges both from regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as international competitors, including China and Russia.
This transition to multipolarity is transforming the region and served as the thesis of a special edition of the academic journal Middle East Policy that came out earlier this year.
Three of the journal's editors on this project, Andrea Ghiselli from Fudan University in Shanghai, University of Naples China scholar Enrico Fardella, and Durham University international relations professor Anoushiravan Ehteshami, join Eric to discuss how the different countries in the region are adapting to the Sino-U.S. rivalry.
SHOW NOTES: Download the Spring 2024 edition of Middle East Policy (you'll need institutional access or have to pay a small fee): https://bit.ly/3XvvLUm
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2024 has been a pivotal year for Brazil-China relations. Last month marked 50 years of diplomatic ties between the two nations, and in celebration of this milestone, President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Brazil by the end of the year.
This visit comes as economic ties between the two countries are booming. Bilateral trade is on track to surpass last year’s $157 billion, and recent data shows Chinese investment in Brazil jumped by 33% in 2023.
Beyond economics, Presidents Xi Jinping and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva share similar ideological views on key global issues, posing a growing challenge to U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere.
This week, South China Morning Post correspondent Igor Patrick and Thiago Bessimo, co-founder of the Portuguese-language site Observa China, join Eric to unpack the deepening Brazil-China relationship and its global implications.
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U.S. officials have spoken at length about the urgent need to end their country's dependency on China for the critical resources needed to power next-generation mobility and technology.
Part of the solution, they say, is to compete directly with the Chinese for lithium, cobalt, and other critical mineral mining rights around the world. The problem is few U.S. mining companies today do that kind of work in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia where these resources are found.
But the U.S. is geologically endowed, prompting loud calls to mine these resources at home — which raises another problem.
In his new book "The War Below," Reuters correspondent Ernest Schyeder explains how powerful stakeholders have made it very difficult for U.S. mining companies to operate domestically. Ernest joins Eric & Géraud to explain why the politics of mining make it nearly impossible for the U.S. to compete with China in the competition for critical resources.
PURCHASE THE WAR BELOW ON AMAZON: https://tinyurl.com/24ng24tm
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In September 2023, just weeks before Hamas' devastating terrorist attack on October 7th, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his foreign policy advisors were preparing for a summit meeting in China with President Xi Jinping. There were even whispers Beijing would help facilitate a rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia much as it did between Riyadh and Tehran.
Now, almost a year later, everything has changed. Sino-Israeli political ties have soured as China aligned with the Arab world and the rest of the Global South in opposition to Israel's war on Gaza. However, while China's standing in Israel has fallen since October 7th, it surged across the rest of the Middle East as more countries in the region regard Beijing as an emerging alternative to the United States.
Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University, and Research Analyst Allie Weinberger, tracked China's Mideast power trajectory in a new article published by the Australian Security Policy Institute. Gedaliah and Allie join Eric to discuss what's behind China's growing influence in the Mideast.
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Many small and middle-power countries are finding it increasingly difficult to navigate the contentious Great Power rivalry between China and the United States. Even though both Beijing and Washington repeatedly state that they don't want to force other countries to choose one side or the other, it isn't always that simple.
Vietnam, however, stands apart from other developing countries in its ability to effectively manage relations with the major powers, including Russia. The main architect of that strategy, known as "bamboo diplomacy," was Nguyen Phu Trong — the long-serving Communist Party General Secretary who passed away last month.
Phan Xuan Dung, a research officer in the Vietnamese program at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), joins Eric to discuss Trong's legacy and the lessons bamboo diplomacy offers other developing countries.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping has long touted the East's rise and the West's decline, the kind of thinking that's triggered his supporters to fantasize about a post-Western geopolitical order.
While it's indisputable that U.S. and European countries, which represent the foundational pillars of the Western system, have seen their power diminish in the post-Cold War era, there's little credible evidence of a full-blown collapse of Western influence.
Instead, King's College scholar Samir Puri argues in his new book "Westlessness," that the role of the West in the international system is changing and not going away.
Samir joins Eric & Cobus from London to discuss the emergence of a new, less Western global order.
Show Notes:
- Order "Westlessness" on Amazon.co.uk
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The foreign ministers from China, the U.S., Japan, and Russia, among others, all passed through the Laotian capital, Vientiane, over the past several days, ostensibly for an ASEAN gathering. But the real action took place on the sidelines of the meeting, where the ministers held a series of bilaterals that revealed the hardening battle lines among the major powers.
The tense discussions highlight the frontline role that Southeast Asia now plays in this burgeoning geopolitical competition that appears to be intensifying over disputes related to Taiwan, the South China Sea, and surging Chinese influence in the region.
Prashanth Paramaswaran, writer and creator of the popular ASEAN Won Substack newsletter, joins Eric to discuss what happened in Vientiane and the latest on the stand-off between Beijing and Manila over territorial rights in the South China Sea.
SHOW NOTES:
- ASEAN Wonk: Why New Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement Matters
- ASEAN Wonk: China Crisis Rocks Philippines Second Thomas Shoal Strategy
- ASEAN Wonk: Vietnam Foreign Policy Futures After Nguyen Phu Trong Passing
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The violent confrontation between China and the Philippines on June 17th near the Second Thomas Shoal marked a sharp escalation in tensions between the two countries over their rival territorial claims in the South China Sea.
After the melee that severely injured one Filipino sailor, the two countries engaged in a second battle, this time in the media, to shape the narrative of what happened and where this burgeoning crisis goes from here.
Alex Vuving, a professor at the Pentagon-backed think tank Asia-Pacific Security Studies Center in Honolulu, joins Eric to discuss why the events of June 17th have prompted Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to recalibrate his strategy.
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Even just a few years ago, it would have stretched credulity to argue that China was a major diplomatic player in the Persian Gulf. Today, that is no longer the case as Beijing is fast becoming one of the key actors in the region.
China is now the largest energy buyer from Gulf countries, it was instrumental in the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Beijing has become a forceful advocate for the Palestinian cause at the UN and other major international fora.
A new book, "A Dragon's Odyssey: China's Rise in the Gulf" charts China's trajectory in the Persian Gulf and how it's become a major player in the region in a relatively short period of time. The book's three authors, Zeno Leoni, Ahmed Aboudouh, and Carlotta Rinaudo, join Eric to discuss how China's rise in the Gulf coincides with perceptions of a U.S. retreat.
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With memories still fresh from the first Cold War, leaders in Africa, Asia, and across the Global South have repeatedly said they do not want any part of a second Great Power rivalry. But as tensions between the U.S. and China steadily deteriorate, the pressure on these smaller, non-aligned countries is going to surge.
The geopolitical dynamics are changing very fast.
Jane Perlez, a renowned Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who spent more than thirty years reporting for The New York Times as a foreign correspondent, laid out the challenges in a new eight-part podcast series on the burgeoning U.S.-China strategic competition.
Jane joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to share her insights on where this competition is going and what impact she thinks it will have on developing countries.
SHOW NOTES:
Listen to Face-Off: The U.S. vs. China hosted by Jane Perlez: https://tinyurl.com/22kkfpu8
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BYD announced that it opened its 100th dealership in Brazil, highlighting the South American country's growing importance to the Chinese electric vehicle giant. It's a similar story across the board in tech, agriculture, and natural resources, among other sectors.
Trade and investment between China and Brazil is booming and is unlikely to slow anytime soon.
Tulio Cariello, director of content and research at the Brazil-China Business Council joins Eric & Cobus from Rio de Janeiro to explain how Brazil is benefitting a lot from Beijing's souring ties with Washington.
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Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto will take office later this year at a critical time when regional tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea are surging.
And this won't be just a foreign policy challenge for the new president. Chinese ships have crossed into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone near the Nantuna Islands at the bottom tip of Beijing's controversial ten-dash line.
Managing the escalating crisis in the South China Sea is going to be a "pivotal" challenge for Prabowo, according to Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the China-Indonesia desk at the Center of Economic and Law Studies. Zulfikar joins Eric from Jakarta to discuss how he thinks Prabowo is going to handle what's becoming a very volatile situation.
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It wasn't that long ago the Persian Gulf was a no-go zone for Chinese diplomacy. Back then, China didn't source much energy from Gulf countries, and its diplomats were ill-equipped to handle the region's contentious politics. That is no longer the case.
The six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council collectively form one of China's largest trading blocs anywhere in the world... and not just for energy. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others are now major destinations for Chinese investment in tech, autos, and other non-oil sectors.
But this relationship is still relatively new and often poorly understood by outsiders. The team at the ChinaMed Project issued a new report this month that provides a helpful country-by-country overview of the key issues that frame China's ties in the Persian Gulf.
Enrico Fardella, director of the ChinaMed Project and an associate professor at the University of Naples, along with Andrea Ghiselli, the ChinaMed Project's research director and an assistant professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, join Eric and Cobus to discuss the different narratives about how Chinese and Gulf stakeholders view one another.
SHOW NOTES: Download the report: Power Shifts? China's Growing Influence in the Gulf: Key Trends and Regional Debates in 2023: https://tinyurl.com/24e4ks4u
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Senior U.S. leaders have once again called on China to use its considerable economic leverage to persuade Iran to change its behavior in the escalating conflict with Israel. Various U.S. have made this same request on several occasions already, going back all the way to the day after Hamas launched its assault on southern Israel on October 7th.
Each time, though, those U.S. appeals have largely been ignored by the Chinese.
That raises two important questions: why does the U.S. keep asking if nothing happens? And, even if Beijing was willing to do act, would the leadership in Tehran even listen?
For some perspective on these two questions, Eric spoke with Iran-China scholar Bill Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen, who explained why so many in Washington are misreading just how much influence China actually has in Iran.
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Former Cambodian strongman Hun Sen was in Beijing last week lobbying the Chinese government to move forward with the $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal project which his son, President Hun Manet, has made the centerpiece of his new administration.
The new canal would connect Phnom Penh's inland port to Kep province on the Gulf of Thailand, creating a new transport link for Cambodia's garment and agricultural exporters, among others.
However, the project is also raising concerns in neighboring Vietnam. Officials there are worried the new canal will divert water from the fragile lower Mekong Delta ecosystem, which provides a vital lifeline for millions of farmers. The Vietnamese also stand to lose a lot of business and are concerned about the potential security implications of the new canal.
Jack Brook, an independent journalist based in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, recently wrote about the canal for a story published in Nikkei Asia and joins Eric to explain why this project is generating so much controversy.
SHOW NOTES:
- Nikkei Asia: Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam by Jack Brook: https://tinyurl.com/25j2fv3t
- The China-Global South Project: Q&A: How Cambodia’s Chinese-backed Funan Techo Canal Risks Destabilizing the Lower Mekong Delta: https://tinyurl.com/2adfcr3w
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Enthusiasm for electric vehicles is waning in both the U.S. and China, but that is definitely not the case in other parts of the world where EV adoption rates are steadily rising. In fact, at the Bangkok Motor Show this week, Chinese EV brands are grabbing all of the attention.
Throughout the Global South, Chinese EV brands are expanding their presence in both manufacturing and sales. And unlike U.S.-made EVs that are largely expensive luxury vehicles, the Chinese brands are focusing on small, affordable cars that are within the price range of consumers in Asia, Africa and Latin America, among other places.
Lei Xing, a longtime China automotive journalist and host of the China EVs & More Podcast, joins Eric to discuss why Chinese automakers are looking to developing countries to drive EV sales.
SHOW NOTES:
- Subscribe to the China EVs & More Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/27enl2qb
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U.S. and European officials often lament that they've fallen behind China when it comes to engaging Africa, Asia, the Americas, and other developing regions. Western governments aren't set up to rapidly deploy the kind of money and resources that Beijing's done with its Belt and Road Initiative over the past ten years.
While the U.S. and Europe are now trying to catch up, author Jeremy Garlick writes in his new book Advantage China: Agent of Change in an Era of Global Disruption that their efforts are hamstrung not only by money but also by history.
Jeremy joins Eric & Cobus to explain why he thinks China's political system provides key systemic advantages over its Western rivals when it comes to engaging the Global South.
Show Notes:
- Amazon: Advantage China: Agent of Change in an Era of Global Disruption by Jeremy Garlick: https://bit.ly/4cj2Nh7
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The escalating tensions between China, the Philippines, and the United States in the South China Sea highlight how Southeast Asia is now the most dangerous frontline in the burgeoning Great Power competition between Beijing and Washington.
But as this week's ASEAN summit in Australia highlights, there is no consensus in the region over how the Southeast Asian bloc's 11 member states are responding to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
This week, Eric spoke with Prashanth Parameswaran, a highly regarded analyst on Southeast Asian affairs and founder of the widely-read ASEAN Wonk newsletter, for some perspective on how different countries across the region are positioning themselves in this new era.
Show Notes:
- Subscribe to the ASEAN Wonk newsletter on Substack: https://www.aseanwonk.com
- Subscribe to the Sinica Podcast newsletter on Substack: https://sinica.substack.com
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A lot of EV consumers bought new battery-powered cars in the hope it would be better for the environment than a vehicle with a conventional internal combustion engine that runs on fossil fuels. By some measures, that's no doubt true.
But many of these early adopters are also unaware their supposedly "green" cars aren't quite as carbon neutral as promised and that there are serious labor and human rights problems related to the metals used to manufacture the batteries that power those EVs.
Krista Shennum, a climate and human rights researcher at Climate Rights International, joins Cobus & Antonia to discuss the situation in Indonesia where Chinese mining companies dominate the all-important nickel sector that's rife with labor and environmental abuses.
SHOW NOTES:
- Climate Rights International: Nickel Unearthed -- The Human and Climate Costs of Indonesia's Nickel Industry: https://cri.org/reports/nickel-unearthed/
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Editor's Note: we're sharing this bonus episode of the China in Africa Podcast given that the topic is so relevant for our audience interested in China-Global South issues.
Academics and think tank analysts, predominantly in the U.S. and Europe, spend a lot of time debating whether it's appropriate to use the nomenclature "Global South" to describe developing countries in Africa, Asia, and the Americas, among other regions.
In those regions, it's actually less of an issue where framings like "South-South" are commonplace. The use of the word "South" doesn't seem to be as sensitive an issue as it is for those observers in the "Global North."
This week, Jorge Heine, a research professor at Boston University and former Chilean ambassador to South Africa, India and China, joins Eric & Cobus to give a passionate defense of the "Global South" and why he feels it's more important than ever now to embrace the concept.
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They're still counting the votes in Indonesia after last week's election but it's all but certain that Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto will become the country's next president. While some of the world's major powers, like the U.S. and India, are holding back their official congratulations, the Chinese weren't so reserved.
Ambassador Lu Kang went to Prabowo's private residence on Sunday and was photographed playing with the likely president's cat, Bobby -- a clear signal Beijing is keen to build a close relationship with the new administration in Jakarta.
CGSP's Southeast Asia Editor Antonia Timmerman joins Eric to discuss the geopolitics now swirling over the archipelago and what's ahead for China-Indonesia ties in the Prabowo era.
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For much of the past year, there's been a lot of talk about China's new leaner, more focused Belt and Road Initiative that goes by the mantra "Smart and Beautiful." The problem is very few people actually know what it looks like in practice.
But that's starting to change, particularly in regions like Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) where two seemingly contradictory investment trends are taking place: overall Chinese FDI in the region is down but in key areas, so-called "new infrastructure," Chinese investments in LAC countries have been going up.
Margaret Myers, director of the Asia and Latin America Program at the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington co-authored a new report on China's evolving investment priorities in the Americas and joins Eric to discuss why Chinese FDI today looks very different than it even just a few years ago.
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There was a lot of speculation in the U.S. last year that an upgrade of diplomatic ties with Vietnam would prompt Hanoi to be more aligned with Washington in its rivalry with China. While Vietnam did embark on a flurry of diplomatic upgrades with China's rivals in Japan, South Korea and the United States, among others, China nonetheless remains the Southeast Asian country's primary foreign policy priority.
And that's never going to change regardless of what the U.S. and others offer Hanoi, according to Khang Vu, a doctoral candidate in Vietnamese foreign policy at Boston College.
Khang joins Eric to explain why a combination of geography and history require the Vietnamese to always put China at the center of their international strategy.
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Together, the United States and China import $40 billion worth of timber products each year, quite a bit of which is harvested illegally from West Africa's rapidly shrinking forests. But cracking down on this illicit trade is extremely difficult given that many of the region's governments are actively complicit.
The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA), an NGO based in the U.S. and UK, recently traced how Chinese merchants trafficked rosewood timber from the forests Equatorial Guinea back to China and eventually all the way to store shelves at Home Depot in the United States.
Last year, EIA published their findings in a damning investigative report. Ma Haibing, an Asia policy specialist at EIA, was part of the team that worked on that report. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss the key findings and what he recommends can be done to crack down on this destructive trade.
SHOW NOTES:
- EIA: The Dictator’s Door -- From Crimes in Equatorial Guinea's Forests to Home Depot's Customers: https://bit.ly/3O4McDg
- The Hill: To halt global deforestation, start with the Home Depot by Raphael Edou: https://bit.ly/3HrCmYc
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This year's COP28 gathering is wrapping up in Dubai and it turned out to be the most controversial climate conference in years where China was at the center of many of the most contentious discussions on how to mitigate the impact of global warming.
China's positions at the conference were difficult to decipher. Chinese negotiators positioned themselves as a still developing country that's suffering the consequences of climate change while at the same time aligning many of their critical votes at COP28 with the fossil fuel-producing countries.
Anika Patel, a China analyst at the online news site Carbon Brief, covered the Chinese delegation at COP28 in Dubai and joins Eric & Cobus to share of her insights into China's approach to climate politics at the conference.
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There's mounting concern in the U.S. and Europe that their global reputations, particularly in developing countries, will be among the latest casualties of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
In the Global South, anger is rising against the West over what is perceived to be a double standard by the West's unconditional support of Israel even as it bombs civilian neighborhoods in Gaza while at the same time lecturing other countries, namely Russia, for violating the rules of war when it does the same.
CGSP Southeast Asia Editor Antonia Timmerman joins Eric & Cobus from Jakarta to discuss how all of this plays into China's larger campaign to challenge the Western-led rules-based international order.
SHOW NOTES:
Read Antonia's latest column on Explaining Indonesia’s Different Responses To Palestine, Xinjiang, and Myanmar’s Rohingya: https://tinyurl.com/3da3jea6
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Prior to the October 7th terrorist attack by Hamas in southern Israel, China had positioned itself as a new power broker in the Middle East. Chinese officials were brimming with confidence after they finalized a détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year, hinting they could do the same in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
But in the wake of a full-scale war that's now underway, those same Chinese officials are much more circumspect.
In this week's episode, CGSP Middle East Editor Jony Essa and Eric speak with three of the world's leading China-Mideast scholars to discuss China's response to the war between Israel and Hamas.
First, Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for International Diplomacy at the Interdisciplinary Center in Israel, and Jonathan Fulton, associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, discuss how the war has impacted China's foreign policy towards Israel and Persian Gulf countries.
Then, Bill Figueroa, one of the world's foremost experts on China-Iran relations at the University of Groningen, joins the conversation to talk about whether Beijing can leverage its influence with Iran to sway Hamas.
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Amid a slowing economy at home, more Chinese companies are now looking to invest abroad in search of higher returns. While there's been a lot of hope in recent years that some of that money would find its way to Africa and other less-developed regions, that's not happening.
Instead, Chinese companies are investing in countries closer to home in Asia, according to Chim Lee, a China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Chim joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to discuss the latest trends in Chinese overseas FDI and why Chinese companies are focusing more attention on "de-risking" their investments.
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Two years ago, China introduced a series of new so-called "green guidelines" that it hoped would promote more sustainable development abroad. But in Africa, according to a new research report, it appears those higher environmental, social, and governance (ESG) have been difficult to meet.
Researchers from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, the Fudan University Green Finance and Development Center, the South African Institute of International Affairs, and LSE IDEAS teamed up to examine ESG standards at five Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.
Two of the scholars on that team, Cecilia Han Springer and Christoph Nedopil, join Cobus (who also contributed to the research) to discuss their findings and explain why Chinese companies continue to struggle to meet minimum ESG standards in Africa.
SHOW NOTES:
Read the full report: Elevating ESG: Empirical Lessons on Environmental, Social and Governance Implementation of Chinese Projects in Africa: https://bit.ly/46ZHL4d
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Chilean President Gabriel Boric oversaw the signing of a $233 million lithium deal with Chinese mining giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the latest investment that solidifies China's dominance of the fiercely contested EV battery metal supply chain.
In just the past few months alone, Chinese firms have moved quickly to lock up similar mining and processing deals in Morocco, Nigeria, Bolivia, and Zimbabwe, among other countries.
Henry Sanderson, executive editor at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, joins Eric & Geraud to discuss these latest deals and what the implications are for G7 countries that are looking to build alternate non-Chinese supply chains for critical resources.
SHOW NOTES:
Amazon: Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green by Henry Sanderson: https://a.co/d/7kDJxds
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China's economy emerged from the pandemic much weaker than before. Unemployment is up, exports are down and a burgeoning property crisis is having a devastating impact on local government finances.
These changes in the economy are happening very fast, so quickly that's it difficult for experts to keep pace with what's happening, much less among those who don't closely follow Chinese economic trends -- particularly in developing countries.
Michael Pettis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, is one of the world's foremost scholars on the Chinese economy. He joins Eric this week to discuss how the dramatic changes that are now taking place in China will impact countries throughout the Global South.
SHOW NOTES:
Amazon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace: https://amzn.to/46Iiqel
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There's growing anxiety in the United States over China's expanding presence in the Latin America-Caribbean (LAC) region. Last week, a Congressional subcommittee held another breathless hearing that warned of the dangers of "Communism on our shores."
That concern in Washington is based, in part, on surging Chinese trade with LAC countries, more investment, and a growing ideological alignment with Beijing's worldview among many of the region's largest countries.
LAC countries are also key destinations for Chinese-backed infrastructure projects as part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
But contrary to the simplistic narratives in Washington about Chinese engagement in Latin America, Bruno Binetti, a China Foresight Associate at LSE Ideas and a non-resident fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, says the region's ties with Beijing are undergoing profound change. Bruno joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to explain how.
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The Chinese economy is in trouble. Exports, manufacturing output, and investment are all down. Unemployment, particularly among young people is up. Provincial debt is now at a record $8 trillion while a burgeoning property crisis has eliminated a once reliable source of revenue for local governments.
The financial difficulties that China is now experiencing have direct implications on dozens, if not hundreds of developing countries around the world that have come to rely on Chinese demand to bolster their own economies.
Lizzi Li, an economist and reporter at the Chinese language television network Wall Street TV, joins Eric & Cobus from New York to discuss what's behind the economic slowdown in China and why it's critical that policymakers and other stakeholders in the Global South learn quickly how to adapt to the new economic realities that are taking shape.
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There was a glimmer of hope last month that China and India would pull back from their increasingly contentious standoff when military commanders concluded talks along their disputed border on a somewhat optimistic note. The hope was that these talks would pave the way for leaders from both countries to meet while they were together at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did meet briefly in South Africa but it did nothing to stall the downward spiral in relations between the two Asian powers.
Ananth Krishnan, an associate editor at The Hindu newspaper in New Delhi and one of the foremost experts on Sino-Indian relations, joins Eric & Cobus to explain why ties have soured so badly and what to expect going forward.
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China's Belt and Road Initiative marked its 10th anniversary this month, prompting a lot of discussion about what's next for Beijing's controversial development agenda. While BRI spending in Africa and the Americas has plummeted in recent years that is not the case closer to home in Southeast Asia.
Cambodia, in particular, stands apart from other countries in terms of its growing dependence on Chinese economic engagement -- both from government-backed BRI projects and private investors who have transformed major cities like Sihanoukville (not always for the better).
Wang Yuan, an assistant professor at Duke Kunshan University, and Linda Calabrese, a research fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, published a paper last month that examined China's hugely important economic presence in Cambodia and join Eric & Cobus to discuss what lessons other developing countries can learn from Phnom Penh's experience.
SHOW NOTES:
- World Development: Chinese capital, regulatory strength and the BRI: A tale of ‘fractured development’ in Cambodia: https://bit.ly/3PlXqTU
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The failure of G20 countries last month to agree on a plan to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 highlights a key problem in the ongoing debate over how to respond to climate change: the institutions that are designed to help solve this problem are failing.
It's not clear what China's role was in that debate at the G20 but elsewhere Beijing's actions on combatting climate change are somewhat contradictory. While China is by far the world's leader in renewable energy and green transportation, it's also the world's largest polluter, thanks in part to its reliance on coal power.
This week, Byron Tsang, a London-based senior policy advisor at the independent climate change think tank E3G and Madhura Joshi, a senior research associate for E3G in Mumbai, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the current state of global climate diplomacy.
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China's critics contend the Belt and Road Initiative is dead or dying due to a mix of gross mismanagement and hubris. The data, however, reveals a very different story. While lending has definitely decreased considerably from its peak in 2016, the BRI is very much alive -- it just looks very different today than it did even a few years ago.
Instead of expensive large-scale infrastructure projects in Africa, the Americas, and Asia, Chinese lenders are now focusing more on smaller initiatives related to technology, renewable energy, and connectivity. In fact, Chinese creditors lent more money to finance green energy initiatives in the first half of the year than in any other 6-month period since the BRI launched a decade ago.
Christoph Nedopil, founding director of the Green Finance and Development Center at Fudan University has been closely tracking the evolution of the BRI and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what the latest data on BRI lending reveals about its future.
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For much of the past 20 years, China sought to radically expand its presence beyond its traditional spheres of influence to new regions in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. China lent billions to countries in these regions and devoted considerable diplomatic capital to building political influence there as well.
But now, in this new era of Great Power competition with the United States and Europe, China is once again shifting its focus, this time closer to home in Asia. Its so-called "near abroad" is now by far the most consequential region for China both in terms of trade and, increasingly, new security challenges.
Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute and a visiting senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, is one of the world's leading experts on China's relations in Central Asia and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this region, in particular, is now so important to Beijing.
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In June, Zambia reached what's been described as a landmark debt restructuring deal that for the first time brought together the country's bilateral creditors including China, traditional Paris Club lenders and bondholders.
While the deal is no doubt unprecedented, it also reveals that China was very effective in successful in getting the parties to agree to many of its demands.
Matt Mingey, a senior analyst at the consultancy Rhodium Group, is among the world's foremost experts on Chinese lending and debt issues. He joins Eric & Cobus from Washington, D.C. to discuss whether China is, in fact, setting the agenda for debt restructurings in the Global South.
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Three Chinese warships made ports of call in Ghana and Nigeria this month, prompting a new wave of speculation about Beijing's military ambitions in Africa. The PLA Navy visit followed reports that Chinese miners in the Central African Republic were rescued by a group of Russian mercenaries which also triggered questions as to whether the controversial Wagner Group is now working more closely with Chinese entities on the continent.
All of this is set against a backdrop of increasingly close military-to-military ties between the PLA and their counterparts in Africa.
Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, D.C., is among the foremost experts on Chinese military engagement on the continent. He joins Eric & Cobus to discuss his latest research on the increasingly close ties between Chinese and African militaries for training and education which are also closely linked to increased Chinese weapons sales.
SHOW NOTES:
- U.S. Institute of Peace: Chinese Professional Military Education for Africa: Key Influence and Strategy by Paul Nantulya: https://bit.ly/44hIts7
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies: China’s Policing Models Make Inroads in Africa by Paul Nantulya
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The South China Sea is one of the world's most strategically vital maritime zones where more than $5 trillion of trade passes through each year -- a whopping 60% of the globe's total maritime commerce. It's also the epicenter of an increasingly contentious geopolitical dispute among more than half a dozen countries over territorial boundaries and who ultimately controls this enormous body of water.
Chinese sovereignty claims over the whole of the South China Sea have provoked furious responses from its regional neighbors and sparked a dangerous duel with the U.S. and other major navies over continued freedom of navigation through the area.
Ray Powell, a former U.S. Air Force colonel, tracks the maneuvers of ships and other vessels operating in the South China Sea on a daily basis as the team lead for Stanford University's Project Myoushu. Ray joins Eric & Cobus from Palo Alto to break down the different territorial claims and why this burgeoning maritime conflict is so incredibly important.
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Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas wrapped up a visit to Beijing last week where he heard lofty promises from Chinese officials about their desire to mediate a settlement with Israel. While the visit made for some good headlines, the chances of China jump-starting the stalled peace process are close to zero.
Tuvia Gering, a leading China watcher in Israel and a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Jerusalem, and Jony Essa, CGSP's Arabic Editor, join Eric and Cobus to discuss the key takeaways from the Abbas visit and explain why China is not well-positioned to broker a settlement between Israelis and Palestinians.
SHOW NOTES:
- Sign up for Tuvia Gering's Discourse Power newsletter: https://discoursepower.substack.com
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The days of China easily handing out billions of dollars to build infrastructure in developing countries around the world are now over. The Chinese can't afford it anymore and many of the borrowing countries just don't have the capacity to take on more debt.
But that doesn't mean the Chinese aren't lending anymore. They are. It's just that the projects they finance today are either small -- below $50 million -- or "beautiful" -- support local communities and align with certain Chinese political objectives.
Edwin Li, a Beijing-based project finance attorney for the international law firm Dentons, detailed these new lending priorities in a recent article and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why it's critical that borrowing countries clearly understand what China does and doesn't fund.
SHOW NOTES:
- China ODI Project Finance and Law: How to Define “Xiao Er Mei” (Small or Beautiful) in the Belt and Road Initiative by Edwin Li: https://bit.ly/3MTxde2
- Boston University Global Development Policy Center: “Small is Beautiful”: A New Era in China’s Overseas Development Finance? by Rebecca Ray: https://bit.ly/3Hnm8iL
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China has built the world's largest and most intrusive surveillance system to monitor the behavior of its people. Millions of cameras, vast databases, and sophisticated online filters work together to form a seemingly omnipresent matrix that overwatches every aspect of daily life.
While China may have pioneered the use of many of these new technologies, today, they are by no means alone. In fact, Chinese companies are now bringing their technology and surveillance expertise to countries around the world -- particularly in the Global South.
Wall Street Journal reporters Liza Lin and Josh Chin, authors of the new book Surveillance State: Inside China's Quest to Launch a New Era of Social Control, join Eric & Cobus to discuss the appeal of China's surveillance technology and how much of Beijing's model can be replicated in other developing countries.
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Chinese President returned home from a week of intense diplomacy in Indonesia and Thailand where he attended a pair of summits and held more than a dozen bilaterals with other international leaders.
Both the G20 Summit in Bali and the subsequent APEC leaders summit in Bangkok served as the first time the President was back on the international stage with some of his Western rivals since the beginning of the pandemic.
Collin Koh, a Research Fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, joins Eric & Cobus to share his views on President Xi's performance and to review what was accomplished at the various summits that took place in Southeast Asia over the past couple of weeks.
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Both the United States and China have restructured their respective foreign policy establishments in recent years to be better poised to confront each other.
In the just concluded 20th Party Congress in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly telegraphed a more aggressive stance towards his U.S. rivals. The U.S. articulated much the same in its latest National Security Strategy released in October that clearly named China as its "most consequential geopolitical challenge.”
Jake Werner, a research fellow in the East Asia program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how this rivalry is playing out in the developing world where a battle for ideas is now underway.
SHOW NOTES:
- Sinification: Chinese experts react to the U.S.’s National Security Strategy by Thomas des Garets Geddes: https://bit.ly/3VWRt23
- Politico: ‘Frustrated and powerless’: In fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America’s biggest weakness by Nahal Toosi: https://politi.co/3TTlIVW
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It has been a difficult year for China in Pakistan. A burgeoning economic crisis in the South Asian country threatens to undermine the multibillion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor development initiative while anti-Chinese terrorism has surged in recent months.
But amid these serious challenges, there's no indication that ties between Beijing and Islamabad have strained. Ammar Malik, a senior research scientist at AidData, closely follows Sino-Pakistani relations and joins Eric & Cobus to explain why this relationship is so durable.
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It wasn't that long ago that many people thought the longtime rivalry between India and China had begun to subside. In fact, Xi Jinping traveled to India in 2019, his second visit as president, for a profile, seemingly amicable summit with Narendra Modi. But a lot can change in three years.
Today, ties between the two Asian giants are bad and getting worse. Both countries are locked in a bitter stand-off along their disputed border high above in the Himalayas and are engaged in seemingly daily disputes over trade, technology, and geopolitical issues.
And experts like The Hindu newspaper's China correspondent Ananth Krishnan contend there's no indication the situation is going to improve anytime soon. Ananth joins Eric & Cobus from Beijing to explain why ties between these two countries have soured so much.
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Amazon: India's China Challenge: A Journey through China's Rise and What It Means for India by Ananth Krishnan: https://amzn.to/3yv3f9M
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The Chinese-financed Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya is one of the flagship projects of the Belt and Road Initiative. But the SGR like other Chinese-sponsored railway projects elsewhere in the Global South also serves as a prime example of the risks to developing countries in taking on so much debt.
Keren Zhu, a global China post-doctoral researcher at Boston University's Global Development Policy Center, together with two other scholars recently completed a first-of-its-kind study that explores the winners and losers in the Kenyan SGR project.
She joins Eric & Cobus to share the findings of their research and what it says about the future of the BRI.
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Israel and China are reportedly in the final stages of negotiating a free trade agreement that both sides say will be done before the end of the year. This may come as a surprise to some given how relations between the two countries have been a bit rocky this past year over issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, and pressure from the U.S.
But Israeli officials have made it clear to the U.S. that while they understand why Beijing makes them nervous, the Jewish State simply does not share those same concerns.
Alexander Pevzner, an adjunct lecturer at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Reichman University near Tel Aviv, joins Eric & Cobus to provide an update on the current state of Sino-Israeli ties and why the U.S. and Israel are not fully aligned when it comes to China.
CORRECTION: In this episode, Eric stated there are now direct flights between Saudi Arabia and Israel which is not correct. Instead, the two countries agreed that Saudi Arabia would open its airspace to flights to/from Israel.
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October marks the 9th anniversary of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and after all these years, nearly a decade later, many people around the world are still trying to figure out what exactly the BRI is. What is certain, though, is that China has pulled back considerably on BRI-related financing in many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and the Americas.
But in Asia, it's a different story. Chinese lenders are still plowing billions of dollars to build badly-needed infrastructure and that prompted the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to try and help stakeholders on all sides with a new BRI digital tool kit.
Blake Berger, ASPI associate director, was on the team that built the new toolkit and joins Eric and Cobus to explain what it is and how it's intended to be used.
SHOW NOTES:
- Asia Society Policy Institute: Navigating the Belt and Road Initiative Toolkit: https://bit.ly/3BvHuqW
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Every week, The China-Global South Podcast will explore timely issues surrounding China's engagement in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and other developing regions. Hosted by China-Global South Editor in Chief Eric Olander in Vietnam and Managing Editor Cobus van Staden in South Africa, this new program will highlight insights and ideas from leading experts in the Global South.
To help kick off the show, Eric & Cobus are joined by Kaiser Kuo, host of the venerable Sinica Podcast, to discuss what motivated the team to launch this new program and what they're hoping it will achieve.
THIS WEEK'S RECOMMENDATIONS:
ERIC:
- Gyude Moore, Senior Policy Fellow at the Center for Global Development: @gyude_moore
- Hannah Ryder, CEO of Development Reimagined: @hmryder
- Ovigue Eguegu, Policy Analyst at Development Reimagined: @ovigweeguegu
- Christian-Geraud Neema, Francophone Editor at the China-Global South Project: @christiangeraud
COBUS:
- Amazon: The Specter of Global China: Politics, Labor, and Foreign Investment in Africa by Ching Kwan Lee: https://amzn.to/3RMTKu8
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent South Pacific tour put the region in play as the latest venue for Great Power political rivalries. But even though the ten Pacific Island Countries (PIC) are among the smallest in the world, they came together as a block and dealt Wang a very rare diplomatic defeat when they rebuffed his wide-ranging security and development proposal.
Tim Bryar, founder and editor of the blog Oceania Hypothesis, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why China is now so keen on expanding its influence in the South Pacific and how he thinks the legacy powers in the United States, New Zealand, and Australia will respond.
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